Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Fight Odds: Adesanya -160, Imavov +138
Odds to end ITD: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Adesanya 8.6k, Imavov 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
For the new class of MMA fan, it may be tough to see a superstar like Israel Adesanya fall back down to earth, as he has done now in three of his past four bouts.
The former middleweight champion, Adesanya is now 35 years old and probably past his prime, though he can still excel against a wide variety of opponents in this division. Father time waits for no man though.
Adesanya will start his road back to glory on Saturday against contender Nassourdine Imavov in a five-round, non PPV event in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Imavov has picked up three consecutive wins officially, but in reality, he’s won seven of his last eight matchups including the NC against Chris Curtis, with his only loss coming to former champion Sean Strickland in a main event in 2023.
Imavov is largely a striker, and a pretty technical one at that. He’s a sniper at distance and likes to fight with composure, excelling at outpointing his opponents over the duration rather than putting them unconscious.
It has worked for the most part. Imavov lands 4.51 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.20 per minute with a 58% defensive rate. At distance, Imavov lands 6.0 strikes per minute while absorbing 5.5 per minute.
These numbers are honestly skewed against him to a degree as well, as Imavov absorbed 182 sig. strikes against Strickland in his most recent loss. No other fighter has eclipsed 64, and that includes multiple fights that have extended into round four.
Strickland, as we know, excels in volume and pressure himself and that’s one of his best attributes. He was able to bring a kind of pace and pressure that Imavov could not quite keep up with.
I don’t necessarily see the same from Adesanya, who Imavov will fight this weekend.
Adesanya is very similar to Imavov in the sense of outpointing his opponents, and he often fights at a slower pace than his opponents would like.
Adesanya lands 4.0 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.21 per minute with a 56% defensive rate. At distance, he’s landing 4.4 per minute while absorbing 3.4 per minute.
You can argue that the pace and pressure have been primary factors in his recent losses to Du Plessis and Strickland as well. Despite what most may think, the Du Plessis loss ages worse for Adesanya in my mind.
Adesanya was having a lot of success throughout that bout, and had Du Plessis hurt at times, but Du Plessis was able to land some heavy hands in the fourth, immediately change the momentum, take Adesanya down and immediately choke him out.
Fair play if Adesanya was that badly hurt, but it’s now the second time we’ve seen Adesanya finished in the championship rounds. I don’t love seeing a far less technical opponent like Du Plessis be able to break Adesanya like that, despite him being a challenge and the champion of the division.
Again, I don’t think we’ll see the same intensity or pressure from Imavov that we’ve seen from Du Plessis or Strickland, so it’s a favorable matchup for both fighters in that sense.
It may also not be the most entertaining fight because of it. Adesanya will likely allow Imavov to move forward, and play a longer game at distance with the five-inch reach advantage he carries.
I consider Adesanya to be more technical of the two, and he obviously has a deep, experienced kickboxing background that should allow him to succeed in this style of fight.
Imavov may be there in front of him the whole time though. Imavov can work at a calculated pace, and he’s consistent in his activity. He’s just not an overwhelming power threat, nor is he a real pace threat.
Because of that, my expectation is that we see this fight extend and probably go the full 25 minute distance. The fight is -180 to go the distance, so the odds back that up.
Adesanya and Imavov will both have some damaging capability, and of the two, Adesanya has been hurt more often and more recently than Imavov. I don’t consider Imavov a major KO threat but it’s possible he could land a couple big strikes that swing the momentum.
Likewise, Adesanya is very crafty, and has more depth to his striking than Imavov, but Imavov has yet to be knocked down in 10 UFC fights. A big shot or accumulation of damage could still be enough to put Imavov out, but I don’t see that being an easy outcome.
The other possible path to victory for Imavov is wrestling. He lands 0.88 takedowns per 15 minutes, so he’s not much of a threat on the mat, but he has looked decent in taking down Curtis, and Cannonier. He also defends at 78 percent which is pretty competent.
Given what we just saw from Du Plessis, I do think Imavov has some potential to wrestle. Izzy can sprawl fine though, and defend with a whizzer. He won’t just lay on his back and give up. Perhaps some persistence from Imavov can lead to a back take or two though, which would be his primary ground threat.
I won’t really be projecting that outcome at a high rate as Imavov doesn’t even land one full takedown per 15 minutes, but I do expect him to attempt a few shots if he’s falling behind a little bit. It’s at least another avenue that could keep Imavov in contention.
Overall, my best guess is that this fight is fairly competitive, fairly slow paced, and I’d favor Adesanya to edge Imavov out on pure striking technicality and depth. But Adesanya rarely dominates on volume, has no wrestling threat, and isn’t the greatest KO artist, so I think it’s quite likely Imavov can compete in rounds and possibly make this a competitive affair.
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On DraftKings, it will be interesting to see how much love Adesanya gets at 8.6k because he’s a historically poor fantasy performer, and I tend to shy away from him on most slates.
As explained above, Adesanya throws strikes at a low volume, and he doesn’t wrestle, so there aren’t many ways for him to score points. Of course, five rounds can be enough to get him to 100 points, and he’s priced more affordably here than on most slates. But it’s his innate style that I do not love to chase.
In his last four wins, Adesanya has scored 96, 86, 75, and 85, and the latter three all came in five-round decisions. His previous five-round win before that scored a shocking 49 points, and prior to that, he scored 117, though that came with four knockdowns lol.
In this particular fight, the odds are likely that it goes the distance, which means minimal KD equity on paper, and minimal wrestling equity as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 110 sig. strikes, but that’s only 74 DK points without any extracurriculars.
Given a potentially high ownership, especially with fights falling off the card, it doesn’t make me excited to play much Adesanya this week.
I do think the public will have concerns too and so instead of the usual 45+ percent we see from main event favorites in this spot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Adesanya in the mid-30s instead. That could be helpful if you want to play him.
Also, there’s plenty of variance in striking fights and Adesanya could land a KD. He’s obviously very skilled. He could also score 90ish points and find his way on the optimal at 8.6k if others in this range underperform.
I don’t think it’s wrong to have exposure to Adesanya and he’s an easy secondary target if you need one. With a +250 ITD line and a questionable fantasy profile, I don’t necessarily view Adesanya as a primary target though, and I will likely continue to be underweight to the field myself.
Imavov at 7.6k I think has a bit cleaner path to the optimal if he wins, primarily due to pricing.
That, and the fact that he’ll likely need some damage along the way, and/or he’ll need to mix in wrestling to beat Adesanya. There is still a path to a similarly mediocre score in a slow-paced striking affair though.
At 7.6k, there’s still a much better chance that 85-90 contends for the optimal lineup, compared to that score at 8.6k.
In terms of pure ceiling, I don’t love Imavov. He’s won by TKO three times and never reached 100 DK points. His lone five-round win scored 100 exactly. He probably won’t “crush” even in a win. He’s only +350 to win ITD.
And you can also argue that as a dog, to Adesanya, in a slower-paced fight, Imavov is not a must-roster. There’s a good chance his game will be limited, and he’ll simply lose rounds and lose the fight. His floor isn’t massive either given his style.
At the same time, he’s only +138 or better to win, and his five-round classification gives him a strong floor in a win for the price. He’s competent, can wrestle, and Adesanya hasn’t looked great recently.
To me, he’s a standard secondary target. I don’t feel the need to fade him as he could reasonably win the fight, but I’m not in love with the matchup and don’t feel the need to be aggressively overweight either.
I expect he’ll get a fair share of ownership now too with fights dropping off the card, and it may be preferable to pivot to some lower owned targets nearby.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Adesanya by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page
Fight Odds: Magomedov -190, Page +162
Odds to end ITD: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Magomedov 8.7k, Page 7.5k
Weight Class: 185
We have a striker’s delight in the middleweight division between two killers in Shara Magomedov and Michael Page.
Magomedov is coming off one of the knockouts of the year against Armen Petrosyan in October. Though it wasn’t a classic KO that left Petrosyan unconscious on the mat, Magomedov was able to force the ref to step in late in the second round with a double spinning backfist, which is the first time I’ve seen that maneuver pay off inside the Octagon.
Needless to say, Magomedov is a threatening striker and diverse in his attack, and his ability to damage his opponents is going to continue to be his biggest strength.
He’ll be taking on Michael “Venom” Page, formerly of Bellator fame, who’s now fought twice inside the Octagon to a 1-1 result.
Page is 22-3 professionally with 12 wins by knockout and four wins by submission, and his career has been filled with thrilling knockouts, and highlight reel finishes.
He is 37 years old now, and I don’t necessarily expect him to make a legitimate run to title contention, but he’s squared off with the best opponents in Bellator for many years and has sent many of them face first into the canvas. To give you a glimpse into Page’s abilities, he once fought a guy named Cyborg, broke his skull with a flying knee in the second round, and then proceeded to celebrate by tossing a Pokeball prop at him.
His victories are devastating, and that usually brings nothing but excitement to his wins.
As far as pure skills, Page is a world champion kickboxer with a taekwondo style, which I don’t necessarily love for MMA.
Typically, taekwondo fighters are throwing single shots, with their hands down at their waist, and they often lack well-rounded skills like wrestling and grappling that make them vulnerable in the long run.
This is the downside to Page too. His wrestling is very weak, and he’s been exposed on the mat on several occasions. He’s actually never been submitted, but he was largely outgrappled by Garry in his most recent fight, and I simply don’t believe his takedown defense will hold up against strong wrestlers in the UFC’s welterweight division.
Furthermore, his volume isn’t great because he’s so reliant on these big moments. He’s not landing consistent volume, and a lot of his attacks have some spinning or flying element to them. It means that in his decisions, we often see both sides exchanging minimally, largely because Page’s opponent will be too cautious and won’t want to make defensive mistakes.
In two UFC fights, Page has been able to outland Kevin Holland 41-29, and outland Garry 21-19. Neither fight was super exciting, and that 2.38 sig. strike per minute rate doesn’t give me much confidence his offense will improve.
Ultimately, Page has some devastating skills, but he also represents a style I don’t love from an investment standpoint, and I won’t be backing Page very often. I do think he’s capable of some highlight reel knockouts, because his flashy striking style is dangerous, but without those fight-ending moments, Page doesn’t have any depth to his game.
Magomedov is surely the more active striker of the two, and we’ve already seen him reach 113 and 97 significant strikes landed over three rounds in the UFC. He has a strong kicking game at distance, and that’s likely where he’ll need to have success against Page.
Page will want to play a purely outside game, where he’s fully out of reach, and then dart in with some crazy strike or combo in an attempt to put Magomedov down. He’s capable of it, but without a big shot landing, it’s tough to picture Page being able to create consistent offense.
Conversely, I’m not sure Magomedov is going to reach solid volume numbers here either. Page is absorbing 1.45 sig. strikes per minute and I don’t see that changing much given his style. While Magomedov may attempt a lot more strikes, he may not be able to land much of it cleanly.
It’s worth noting that of Page’s three losses, one was a devastating KO to Douglas Lima in 2019. Magomedov may not be able to land consistently, but as Page doesn’t really defend strikes with his hands, Magomedov landing a clean shot to the chin and putting Page down is certainly in play.
Magomedov has been more difficult to hurt, and he’s never lost, let alone been KOd. While Page will have that opportunity, it’s a tough outcome to predict and I’d guess it’s more likely than not that Magomedov can survive a few crazy flurries.
Overall, I have to side with Magomedov here, as he’s the more active striker. He’s had some defensive wrestling issues of his own, but Page shouldn’t be a major threat to him on the mat.
Both sides have KO upside but I do fear that Page will suck Magomedov into his style of fight, which will be low volume, and fully dependent on massive single moments. It could make for a highlight reel finish on either side, but without one, I expect Magomedov to produce a little bit more offense per minute and get his hand raised.
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On DraftKings, this fight is as boom or bust as it gets, which has been the case with both of Page’s fights in the UFC thus far.
Page won his UFC debut, but only scored 53 points as it went to decision. And he then allowed Garry to win and score something like 65 points in his last bout.
Even if Page were to win with some devastating knockout, if it came in round two after he landed 10 strikes in round one, we might still see something like 85-90 in that result. I definitely question Page’s upside and I will typically want to avoid him unless I am confident his chances of a RD 1 KO are real.
In this matchup, I don’t think they’re exceptionally real. Page is +162 to win and +450 to win ITD. He shouldn’t have much or any wrestling equity.
The only good news is that he’s 7.4k on a short slate. In an ugly win, maybe Page can still get there. I don’t hate the idea of sprinkling him in as the public will probably be cautious, just hoping for randomness to work in your favor.
At the same time, this fight between two devastating strikers is actually -210 to go the full distance, which says a lot. An extended fight would be pretty disastrous for scoring purposes in my mind, so on paper, being light or fading it outright is a strategy worth considering.
Magomedov is priced up to 8.8k and he’ll need a knockout as well. Perhaps he could wrestle, but I’ve seen nothing to suggest he’s interested in wrestling offensively or really capable of it. Page may actually be the one attempting TDs if either man does.
Volume on paper is fine for Magomedov but this is a terrible matchup for him to excel there, so in a decision, I think it’s more likely that Magomedov fails to reach 60 strikes than clearly surpasses 100. He just needs an early KO.
Magomedov is +245 to win ITD which isn’t particularly promising. I do think he’s capable of it and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hurt Page. But Page may not allow many opportunities and that’s the biggest fear. Magomedov may also fight more cautiously here in fear of Page springing at him from distance.
So I don’t feel inclined to roster a lot of Magomedov either, especially at this price tag. I doubt he’ll be super popular though, despite a decent box score.
Using him as a mix-in is OK for variance-related KO upside but it’s pretty clear he will rate out poorly on paper and if he projects to be chalky, I’d much rather be underweight and hope the fight extends for a while.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Magomedov by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Fight Odds: Pavlovich -302, Rozenstruik +245
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Pavlovich 9.1k, Rozenstruik 7.1k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Sergei Pavlovich dropped his UFC debut back in 2018 to longtime divisional veteran Alistair Overeem but went on a tear afterward, winning six straight fights and earning an interim title shot. He came up short to Aspinall and most recently is coming off an underwhelming performance against Alexander Volkov – he’s 6-3 in the UFC and 18-3 as a pro. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is entering his 7th year on the roster and is a guy who had a hot start to his run, but has by and large, traded wins and losses since entering the top 10/15 – he’s 9-5 in the UFC and 15-5 as a pro.
The striking component:
Pavlovich is a big heavyweight standing 6’3” with an 84” reach, who’s listed as a southpaw which is incorrect as he fights orthodox.
Pavlovich can work at a more methodical pace at distance and look to time his shots/entries into his blitzes but with that being said, the blitzes often come quickly. He’s accurate, has quick hands and hits incredibly hard with 15 of his 18 pro wins coming via strikes and in the 1st round. His best tools are his jab and right hook.
Despite largely being a front runner, he has won his other three fights via UD with one going a full 25 minutes – that was a very slow-paced fight in fairness but nonetheless it’s still encouraging to see he can go a full championship duration.
Defensively, he’s not great though as he doesn’t use a lot of movement and is largely looking to block punches on his guard, and he will stand in front of people.
His first pro loss came to Alistair Overeem (tough guy to draw in your debut) where he struggled with the clinch of Overeem and ultimately got finished on the ground with strikes – not much happened at distance though so can’t take away much.
But Blaydes was touching him up early and Aspinall was able to put him down with a nicely timed straight shot.
Most recently, he struggled with the disciplined outside game that Volkov employed and was outlanded 83 to 46 over 15 minutes – he definitely landed some clean shots, but Volkov was able to take them. It was the straight shots from Volkov in addition to kicks that struggled Pavlovich – coupled with Volkov going southpaw for most of that fight which I think threw Pavlovich off.
In totality though, he hasn’t faced a ton of adversity minute to minute because all of his fights end so quickly. I’m still curious as to what happens if someone can put him on the back foot.
Overall, Pavlovich is a big, fast, powerful heavyweight that opponents don’t want to get hit flush by, but we do have a couple of fights now to suggest that he’s not invincible.
Rozenstruik comes from a kickboxing background where he holds a record of 76-8 in the discipline.
He made the move to MMA full time back in 2017 and has by and large bonked in his wins. However, he did get smoked fast by Ngannou where he just got bum-rushed but really no shame in that L. He was also getting out-struck by Overeem (regardless of what the metrics say) and was on his way to losing a decision before landing a hail mary at the bell.
He then out-struck JDS and eventually KO’d him in the 2nd but it was largely an unimpressive performance in totality. He got 2.5X’d on strikes by Gane and lost a range kickboxing match 50-45 on the cards.
More recently though, he’s won two extended contests over Gaziev and Tuivasa where his volume patterns were much more consistent and his jabs to both the body and head have been money.
Despite his credentialed kickboxing background, it’s always been difficult for me to gauge his striking because he historically fights in bursts or is looking to counter strike.
He’s traditionally pretty patient and largely just picks and chooses his shots, but when he does decide to go, it’s an explosive barrage of punches in which many haven’t dealt well with.
However, he’s struggled defensively on a percentage only defending strikes at 51%.
I largely attribute this to his stationary nature and his reliance on trying to slip shots – coupled with the fact that he has fought some of the best strikers in the division which can’t be ignored.
But to his credit, he’s not actually eating high numbers of strikes and shown to be largely durable throughout his MMA career so far but against certain guys, it won’t be fruitful for him.
Overall, he’s another big heavyweight who hits like a truck and is accurate in what he throws which has gotten him into the upper echelon of the largest promotion in the world. I’m hoping the last couple outings for Roz are an indication for more consistent volume so he’s not as KO reliant.
How it plays out: Off the top, Pavlovich will realize a 1” height and 6” reach advantage. While I do think there is some scope for Roz implementing some of the things we saw Volkov use against Pavlovich, I don’t think it would be consistent – coupled with Volkov being much bigger and more mobile than Roz. Both guys hit hard and have their own defensive issues, but I do feel Pavlovich is the harder hitter of the two and the more likely party to command the center to dictate exchanges. Roz isn’t as effective of a back foot fighter.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Pavlovich actually comes from a greco and sambo background as his base martial art which you wouldn’t know from watching his conventional tape.
However, there isn’t much to say with him given that the majority of his fights have ended so quickly. He hit a nice throw on Kudin early in their fight back on the Russian regionals but just let the guy up, kind of interesting – the other few in that fight he attempted got stuffed – that fight was in 2016.
He attempted two TDs against Overeem and both got stuffed, and was stuffed in his lone attempt by Volkov last time out.
Defensively, the only time we’ve seen him on bottom was the Overeem fight where he got hit with a nice foot sweep from the clinch and finished with ground-and-pound.
He stuffed one shot from Blaydes recently, but it was a sloppy, non-setup shot for whatever it’s worth. That’s legit all there is to say with Pavlovich in this realm without going back over 7+ years.
With Roz coming from that kickboxing background, he just doesn’t wrestle and hasn’t landed a TD in the UFC to date. Additionally, Roz’s bottom game hasn’t been the best.
Some of the biggest struggles he’s had in MMA have come on the floor – most notably in his Rizin fight against Kovalev where he got wrestled a ton (probably should have lost the fight), Albini had a lot of early wrestling success in his debut, Overeem landed two TDs against him racking up eight minutes of control time, we saw him get outwrestled by Blaydes and more recently ran by Almeida on the floor despite stuffing his initial shot.
To Roz’s credit, I think he’s made some strides since the Kovalev fight back in 2018 but by and large, he really can’t grapple.
He does stuff TDs at 75% though, which is respectable statistically, but it does need to be put in the context that he hasn’t fought many pure ground fighters outside of Blaydes, Almeida and Gaziev.
Also, to Roz’s credit, he was able to work up under Blaydes in the 1st round but couldn’t in the latter rounds when he got more tired. He had some early struggles recently with Gaziev but still stuffed 6/7 shots which is a testament to some Roz’s improvements.
Overall, despite some of those improvements, the ground is still the main hole that can be exploited in Roz’s game.
How it plays out: It’s doubtful we see wrestling in this fight as both guys have shown little interest in pursuing it throughout their careers. But if I was to assign upside, I’d give more to Pavlovich as the guy with a wrestling background – coupled with a bit of side narrative in him coming off back-to-back striking losses, maybe he flips the script and looks to shoot a few TDs.
Fun heavyweight fight between two guys that are still pretty young by divisional standards with Pavlovich at 32 and Roz at 36. Both are big hitters which adds an inherent layer of variance but given what I referenced above, I see more upside to Pavlovich and think he gets back in the win column this weekend.
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On DraftKings, I expect we’ll see the public interested in this matchup as it’s two HWs who can bang it out.
We’ve obviously seen incredible upside from Pavlovich, with wins of 107, 109, 109, 131, 144 and 114. However, it must be put in context that all six wins came from very early KOs.
In an extended fight, I’ve seen nothing to suggest that Pavlovich is going to win minutes consistently, nor produce much offense. He may be a fully boom or bust, early KO or bust type of fighter and that’s how I’m treating him.
Still, the upside is notable in this division. He’s priced at 9.1k this week and is -250 to win ITD which is very strong. Rozenstruik has been KOd early before.
I still hate capping this type of stuff because Rozenstruik has been KOd in RD 1 twice in 14 fights, so is he truly -250 to get put out quickly here by Pavlovich? Maybe.
Regardless, it makes sense to have exposure to Pavlovich as his win condition is heavily tied into a quick KO. At 9.1k, he could be a priority for that upside alone, just know that his window is quite thin to reach a ceiling.
Rozenstruik at 7.1k is viable as well. My issue with him is that he doesn’t produce a lot of offense so even in these extended decisions, Roz is putting up 67 points. He’s typically a very boom or bust target himself with probably an even thinner window to reach a ceiling, just given his lack of offense.
Against Pavlovich, he could have extended success though. He might just be the better minute winner past the first round. Also, he could win by early KO due to variance, as Pavlovich has been KOd quickly. He is +365 to win ITD.
Rozenstruik isn’t a very special play and I probably won’t end up with a lot of exposure to him. But he works well as leverage against Pavlovich, and he’s cheap. He’s worth a look as a low-end tournament target in what is a very high-variance, big man swing fest.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pavlovich by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Fight Odds: Nurmagomedov -160, Oliveira +138
Odds to end ITD: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Nurmagomedov 8.7k, Oliveira 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am excited for this bout here between Said Nurmagomedov and Vinicius Oliveira. Oliveira always brings it, and I think we are in store for some fun action this weekend. This is one of the best fights on the card.
Said is a typical well-rounded Russian fighter. However, he strikes more than he wrestles so he is a little different than his Russian contemporaries.
Said lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.13. He defends strikes at 57 percent. Those are good ratios, and I consider Said a pretty skilled striker. He is long for the division and can mix it up a bit.
Said has a very quick jab and also uses kicks well that allow him to control distance from the outside. He also mixes in spinning backfists and other spinning techniques which I am generally not a fan of. However, he doesn’t rely on them too much and generally sticks to the basics. Said also dominates the head strike metrics in his matchups which I absolutely love.
Said is quite skilled. His volume isn’t perfect though and he only landed 42 significant strikes against De Andrade in a decision. He doesn’t totally run away with striking rounds. He is generally landing more than his opponents though because he is sound defensively. I also thought he did a good job limiting the calf kick damage against Jonathan Martinez. Said lost the decision in that fight, but I thought the judges butchered that decision and Said should have gotten the nod.
Said only lands 1.01 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, he is landing takedowns at 16 percent which means he is shooting well over five takedown attempts per 15 minutes. He actually landed three takedowns in his matchup against Jonathan Martinez and his grappling looked decent. He was able to get the back, threaten with chokes, and stick in a body triangle.
Said defends takedowns at 66 percent which is decent, and I consider his defensive wrestling competent. He also has a really nasty guillotine which he can use to finish opponents or to defend takedowns and get top position. Three of his last four wins have actually come by guillotine.
I just consider Said a very solid and well-rounded fighter who has a ton of experience. He will continue to be a tough out for all fighters in the UFC.
Said will be taking on Vinicius Oliveira who is now 21-3 professionally. Oliveira is also now 2-0 in the UFC. He won his UFC debut against Bernardo Sopaj. He was losing the early portions of that fight but eventually Sopaj gassed out and Oliveira landed one of the best knockouts of the year in round three via flying knee.
Oliveira then won a decision against Ricky Simon by minimizing the grappling of Simon and outstriking him to a decision win. Both fights were honestly somewhat impressive and I do think Oliveira is a solid fighter.
Oliveira is an aggressive Thai striker, and 16 of his 21 wins have come by knockout. He is very aggressive and will throw power shots for 15 minutes, and seems to be able to fight for a hard three rounds.
Oliveira likes to come forward on the feet. He will throw hard calf kicks and wild hooks from weird angles. He is pretty unorthodox. He is also just huge and athletic which makes it difficult for his opponents. He will also mix in head kicks and a stabbing front kick to the body. I think he is pretty dangerous and I do like his aggression.
He outlanded Sopaj at range 49-21 although most of those strikes came when Sopaj was gassed and defenseless. He also outlanded Simon at range 94-40 although Simon looked shot and was never a good striker. I still do respect Oliveira as a striker though, especially his offense.
Oliveira’s defense worries me though. He really hasn’t fought a good striker yet and he has actually been knocked out on the regionals multiple times already. He is very aggressive and keeps his hands down, and I am pretty confident he will get knocked out again if he keeps fighting like that. He is just open to be hit and has questionable durability.
Oliveira will mix in takedowns as well, but I don’t think he is a skilled offensive wrestler or submission grappler. I think his striking will be his main path to victory at this level. I do like Oliveira’s ground-and-pound when he actually gets on top though.
Oliveira has okay defensive wrestling. He is defending takedowns at 68 percent. Sopaj did get him down three times and got his back at one point. Sopaj gassed out though. Simon was able to land two takedowns but Simon couldn’t keep Oliviera down. Simon never had the best top control so I wasn’t shocked by that outcome. I basically think Oliveira has decent tdd, but it’s not perfect. I do think a decent grappler can have success against him though and could get a good position with a body triangle.
As far as this matchup goes, I think I lean Said based on his experience. I also think Said is the more skilled fighter in all areas. Said is the more technical striker and grappler.
On the feet, I think I slightly lean Said but this is still close. Said is better defensively, and I really worry about Oliveira keeping his hands down. Said has some sneaky power and is super skilled so I think Said has a decent chance to sting Oliveira and hurt him. Oliveira is very dangerous though so he could potentially hurt Said too. Said is very durable though and has never been finished in his career. He is more durable than Oliveira imo.
I do worry about Said’s overall lack of aggression though. Said is likely more skilled as a striker than Oliveira but Oliveira may be more urgent and get up on the rounds just with his aggression. I also worry about Said’s cardio to a degree. If Said slows down, Oliveira may up the aggression even more and have good moments. I still am going to favor Said on the feet though because I generally lean towards the more defensively sound striker in striking fights.
As a grappler, I think Said is clearly better. I don’t think Said can take and hold Oliveira down for entire rounds. However, I do think Said can land a couple of takedowns here and there and potentially pop in a body triangle. Said is also sneaky good at catching kicks, which Oliveira throws a lot. Said kept landing takedowns off caught kicks against Martinez and I think the same thing could happen here.
I also think Oliveira is sometimes sloppy with takedown entries and I think Said snatching his patented power guillotine is a real possibility here. Said is surely more likely to win by a submission so I think Said’s grappling upside makes him a deserved favorite.
This is still a competitive fight though. I think Oliveira is very dangerous and can basically hurt anyone. I also think he may fight more aggressively which the judges could favor on the scorecards. Still though, I think Said has more grappling upside and is the more skillful fighter. Said is arguably more dangerous as well when you factor in both his knockout and submission threat. Five of Said’s seven wins have come by finish. So I am going to pick Said to get it done here.
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On DraftKings, I think Oliveira could be one of the most popular underdogs at 7.5k, coming off the 99 point finish over Sopaj and then a 74 point win over Simon.
While it’s not necessarily an elite box score, he’s 2-0 in the UFC against decent competition, and is cheap on a short slate. He may draw lots of attention and be chalky.
I don’t love this matchup for him though. We just saw him ONLY score 74 points when he was able to tee off on Simon, largely because he didn’t wrestle and didn’t win by KO. I don’t think Oliveira will have much wrestling equity here, nor finishing equity at +300 ITD.
As he may be chalk, I’m not very excited to play Oliveira. Nurmagomedov is defensively sound and should limit his attack. Without a random KO, I don’t see Oliveira hitting a ceiling. It’s possible but not an outcome I’d bet on.
Otherwise, there could still be merit in chasing a lower score if you think he can win, on a short slate. Maybe 75 points at 7.5k is enough to be optimal if all the other dogs lose. I do think Oliveira could win a close, 29-28 type of decision where he’s a bit more active on the feet.
Ultimately, Said’s lower activity rate does give Oliveira hope in the matchup but it’s still not a great spot and not a spot I’m dying to invest in above the field.
Nurmagomedov at 8.7k is more expensive than I would like to pay, but I think that cost is going to keep the public off of him to an extent.
His fight history is weird too. He’s scored 69 and 69 in two decision wins which shows you the potential for a low activity rate. He’s also won in less than 1 minute 15 seconds three times, so he has early finishing upside.
In this particular matchup, I think there’s enough upside to warrant exposure. I definitely think Nurmagomedov is the better wrestler, and he probably should land 3+ takedowns in an extended win. With that, he could take the back and threaten for a finish, though I’m still not certain a decision would be enough.
He may also be able to KO Oliveira. Oliveira is a showboater and has been deaded on the regionals multiple times. It’s not the easiest outcome, but I do think Said could win by KO here and it could come early. He is +175 to win ITD which is OK.
I’m not in love with Said at 8.7k and I do think he’s somewhat boom or bust. But it’s a short slate, and the combination of wrestling equity, finishing equity, and potentially leverage against Oliveira all push me toward wanting exposure to Said on this slate, and I wouldn’t mind being a bit above the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis
Fight Odds: Davis -138, Ziam +120
Odds to end ITD: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Davis 8.4k, Ziam 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually excited about this fight between Mike Davis and Fares Ziam as I think it could be pretty entertaining.
Davis is a fun action fighter. He is a pretty decent striker and can fight at a high pace. He lands 5.35 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.76 in return. He is an athletic and semi-powerful guy who can mix in a diversity of strikes. He went to war with Mason Jones in a great matchup back in January of 2021, and lost to Sodiq Yusuff in what is still probably the best Contender Series fight of all-time in 2018.
I still get a bit worried about how hittable Davis is though. He defends strikes at 55 percent which is okay, but absorbing nearly 6.0 significant strikes per minute is just asking for chaos and randomness to happen.
Davis is a capable wrestler and comes from a wrestling background. He lands 2.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed three takedowns against Mason Jones. He also outwrestled Borshchev by landing nine takedowns, and most recently submitted Natan Levy with a RNC in round two. So he is a capable grappler.
I tend to think Davis may be getting a bit overrated as a grappler though. Borshchev is truly awful as a defensive grappler and Levy is not a good fighter. I do think Davis is a competent grappler, but I think he may have just feasted against really bad competition lately and is getting a bit overrated as a grappler in general by the betting market. I didn’t think he looked all that good controlling Natan Levy specifically, as Levy scrambled away from him at times.
Davis’ defensive wrestling is respectable and defends takedowns at 64 percent. I hated that he went for a leg lock against Levy though.
Davis will be taking on Fares Ziam. I have never been the biggest fan of Ziam’s game because he just doesn’t land a ton of offense. However, I do think he has really improved. He most recently dominated Matt Frevola in a career best performance and landed four takedowns, outstruck Frevola soundly, and then knocked Frevola dead. It was honestly a very good performance by Ziam.
Ziam has never really been a reliable offensive wrestler but he did at least land three takedowns against Michael Figlak and showed a decent ability to control top position in that fight. He also landed four takedowns against Frevola as mentioned above.
Ziam only lands 2.92 significant strikes per minute and has landed 10, 47, 39, 60, 61, and 31 significant strikes in his six decisions in the UFC. He managed to win five of those fights, but that is just not enough offense to clearly win fights at this level. It at least makes me nervous to a degree.
Ziam does only absorb 1.66 significant strikes in return and defends strikes at 66 percent though. So he is landing more strikes than he absorbs and is sound defensively. So I actually think he is a guy who will outperform his striking volume metrics just because he is defensively sound, so he can still outland opponents. He doubled up Michael Figlak and outlanded Jai Herbert 61-49, so he is still capable. He also outlanded Frevola 45-9 at distance.
Ziam is best as a kickboxer and although I hate his volume, I do think he is decent technically and solid defensively. He is rangy with his 6’1” frame and can use his kicking game and jab to outslick his opponents. Striking based decisions will be his most likely path to victory at this level. I also think he is a tough kid and I haven’t seen him hurt often.
I still worry about Ziam’s volume though, along with his lack of physicality and defensive grappling. He defends takedowns at 67 percent which is decent. However, he has been taken down in several fights and can be exposed vs decent grapplers. Puelles had success against him and McKinney submitted him in round one. He was also mounted for a short period of time against Frevola. Again though, I think he has really improved as a defensive grappler and I think the other portions of the Frevola fight showed that.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually think I am going to go with the underdog in Ziam here.
On the feet, I think I favor Ziam as the more defensively sound and technical kickboxer. I think Davis could maybe land a big shot or compete on volume. However, I think Ziam will get ahead on the numbers by simply being the more defensively sound fighter. I think Davis is just too hittable and it should allow Ziam to land consistently more often than Davis. Davis is not in over his head on the feet but I think it is fair to favor Ziam.
Davis could potentially have grappling success here. We have seen Ziam struggle as a defensive grappler before, and I definitely think Davis can land a takedown or two here. Maybe Davis strikes competitively enough, lands a few takedowns, and wins a decision. So Davis could win this fight with his grappling.
I still think Ziam has improved as a grappler though, especially defensively. I am leaning towards Ziam being able to minimize the grappling of Davis to a degree. I also wouldn’t be totally shocked if Ziam landed a takedown of his own either. I just feel like Davis has feasted vs really bad grapplers.
So I am going to go with Ziam here. I think he can defend the grappling enough and outstrike Davis in route to a striking based win.
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On DraftKings, I definitely consider Davis to have the higher upside style of the two.
I’ve also been fairly low on Ziam in totality, and it’s burned me on more than one occasion. Despite that, I did think Ziam had tournament appeal in his last fight as Frevola is known for getting hurt, but Ziam outperformed my expectations and is clearly improving overall.
It’s just a bit difficult for me to ever get excited about a fighter who can land 60 strikes in three rounds on a good day, and may never wrestle. But Ziam has some Leon Edwards’ neutralizing elements to his game, which are beneficial.
I just think the way Davis beats Ziam is a higher upside path than vice versa. Davis we’ve seen land 100+ significant strikes on multiple occasions, and he topped out at nine takedowns against Borshchev. Ziam will slow the fight down here, but Davis can throw enough strikes to stay competitive and he may also wrestle.
Don’t forget, it was literally two fights ago that Ziam got taken down seven times by Claudio Puelles, who isn’t a special wrestler. Yes, he looked better a few months later against Frevola, but it’s pretty clear that Ziam is not a fully polished defensive wrestler. He gave up mount to Frevola too like Tim mentioned.
I am not at all confident in Davis here but I like his offensive production, and he may need to wrestle a lot to win this fight. At 8.4k, despite a mediocre +250 ITD line, I don’t mind Davis as a secondary target for general offensive production. Ziam may limit his floor/ceiling without wrestling domination though.
Ziam at 7.8k could easily be the more popular target, as he’s now won four fights in a row and coming off the highlight reel KO.
He still won’t rate out well, with low volume, minimal wrestling equity and a +440 ITD line. In his other wins, he’s scored 66, 69 and 96. So even if Ziam wins here, he could score below 70 and bust.
I don’t think Ziam is a better wrestler than Davis but in a win, it is possible he mixes in a few takedowns. I doubt he’d do a lot with them but three random takedowns and 60 significant strikes can turn a 60 point score into an 80 point score. Still, if he projects to be popular I will probably end up underweight.
This is a really good test for Ziam ultimately and Davis is a really solid fighter who will come to play. I like Davis’ style more for DK but Ziam is tricky and improving, and Ziam’s win equity still puts in him play as a lower-end secondary option.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Davis by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli
Fight Odds: Naimov -346, Ofli +275
Odds to end ITD: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Naimov 9k, Ofli 7.2k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random matchup here as Muhammad Naimov will battle Kaan Ofli this weekend.
Naimov is now 3-2 in UFC affiliated fights. I basically label him as an okay wrestle boxer.
On the feet, he isn’t great and he is pretty basic. He lands 3.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.28 in return. However, he is at least functional standing and can throw basic hands and combinations. He also has okay kicks which he will mix to the legs and the body. He packs a little power as well in his hands and is somewhat physical for the weight class. I also think he is generally pretty tough and he has never lost by knockout.
I still don’t think Naimov is that good though and I think his striking is limited, and any decent striker can have success against him.
I am probably most comfortable with Naimov winning fights when he has a wrestling advantage. He is an okay wrestler and fairly physical. He lands 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a decent understanding of how to complete takedowns. He can control position a bit when he is on top. However, I don’t consider him very dangerous on top and he is not a potent submission grappler and has only won by submission a few times in his career.
Naimov defends takedowns at 57 percent and is okay as a defensive grappler. He will at least try to work up and give up his back. I think he scrambles up fine. He did pay for giving his back up in his last matchup against Felipe Lima though. Lima put hooks in and choked Naimov out which was concerning.
Naimov is just okay. He is functional everywhere and has a little power but I don’t consider him good anywhere either.
Naimov will be taking on Kaan Ofli who is 11-3-1 professionally and fights out of Australia.
Ofli worked his way through TUF by outgrappling his opponents and actually had a decent win against Nathan Fletcher. He then fought against Marion Santos in the TUF finale and was knocked out in round two. Ofli was unable to get his grappling going and was stuck on the feet with the more powerful Santos, and just got beaten up. I think that will continue to be the story with Ofli. He will be reliant on grappling to win fights or he will have issues.
Ofli is a BJJ black belt and a decent grappler honestly. I thought his performance against Fletcher was good. He has alright takedowns and can threaten with backtakes. Five of his wins have come by submission. He also can control position decently. His defensive wrestling also seems decent.
That is all Ofli really has though. He is not a good striker. He is just basic and lacks a bit of physicality standing. He was knocked dead by Santos and I have seen him hurt consistently on the regionals. I have also seen him hurt a couple of guys but I generally think he will be on the wrong end of the damaged base striking exchanges at this level. Ofli is really going to have to grapple his opponents to win.
As far as this matchup goes, I do favor Naimov standing. I think Naimov is just a little more physical and hits harder than Ofli. I think there is a good chance Naimov can knock Ofli out and I am going to pick Naimov for that reason alone.
I do think Ofli can potentially land takedowns though. Naimov has actually conceded 3, 3, 2, 0, and 1 takedowns in his five UFC fights. So he does concede takedowns and I do think Ofli is a decent grappler. The issue is I don’t know if Ofli can easily control Naimov. Naimov looks to scramble up and is pretty physical. Ofli could potentially get the back though. That sequence of Naimov getting choked out by Lima was pretty bad. So I do see at least some avenues of success for Ofli. Him getting some control or threatening with a back take wouldn’t surprise me that much honestly.
I still think Naimov is a good enough wrestler to minimize the grappling of Ofli and win the striking exchanges though. Naimov may even be able to land his own takedowns. So I am going to go with Naimov here as I think he can land more damage on the feet.
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On DraftKings, Naimov is fine but he’s probably dependent on an early KO.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see him become a popular target considering Ofli was just knocked out in devastating fashion. Ofli is a bit too small for this division as well, so Naimov will have size and physical advantages.
At 9k, if Naimov secures the early KO, he’ll have a good shot at the optimal. He is +145 to win ITD which is OK.
Personally, I’m not in love with the play as I don’t think Naimov is a great talent himself, and was able to capitalize recently on him losing to Lima. He won’t land tons of strikes, and he’s often on the wrong end of the wrestling exchanges.
He is powerful though, and so we’ve seen some ceiling from Naimov in wins with scores of 121, 97 and 92. It’s quite possible he can replicate that type of score against Ofli. I just consider him largely boom or bust though, and I don’t think his chances of securing that finish are dramatically better than other options in this range.
Ofli at 7.2k interests me a little bit as a sneaky underdog.
I actually thought he was decent heading into his debut, but again, he’s undersized and also a bit hittable. He’s good everywhere, but he’s not great, so he’ll have trouble dominating in any area and it seems more likely he’ll need ground success to win at this level.
While he may not be able to succeed here, Naimov has given up 9 takedowns in five fights, and not all to great wrestlers. And he just got choked out by Lima. So obviously Ofli as a BJJ black belt has some grappling equity.
He’s a big dog with a +650 ITD line, and I don’t love his game enough to be super excited about this play, but I think Ofli will be quite overlooked in this bottom range, and with that grappling equity, he’s a potentially sneaky underdog target if you need a place to be unique.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Naimov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Shamil Gaziev vs. Thomas Petersen
Fight Odds: Gaziev -338, Petersen +270
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Gaziev 9.3k, Petersen 6.9k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Shamil Gaziev is a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season. He had a solid debut showing, but got ran up the flagpole too quickly getting a main event slot against Rozenstruik which didn’t go well. But he bounced back in August over Don’Tale Mayes – he’s 13-1 as a pro. Thomas Petersen’s a fellow Contender Series alum who had a rocky debut showing last February. But he rebounded last time out with a win over Mohammad Usman – he’s 9-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
The large majority of Gaziev’s fights have taken place on the ground so we don’t have a super extensive sample of him standing. He tends to fight with his hands down and at least earlier on in his run, his striking has been primarily used to close distance to set up his wrestling.
However, more recently, it does appear like he’s shown a bit more composure in space and his hand speed seems a bit quicker now.
Historically, he hasn’t been a massive hitter by heavyweight standards but has hurt four of his last five opponents with strikes – probably more impressive dropping Stosic pre-CS as a former UFC fighter who has historically been durable, and additionally finishing Buday off who’s also historically been known for his durability.
But he also got dropped early in that fight by Stosic with a left hook and I have seen him get tagged in a few other fights as well – it’s in that hands down type of style where he’s playing with some fire as a guy who largely relies on his chin as his primary line of defense.
In his defense, he’s shown the ability to handle some adversity well but he’s going to need to tighten that up now fighting at a UFC level.
Rozenstruik was just too much of a step up for him in the striking department where he more or less got jabbed to the head and body for the better part of 20 minutes before he said he couldn’t continue at the end of the 4th due to an issue with his eye – maybe there was something truly wrong, but it looked more like a quit job to me.
Overall, I would like to see more of Gaziev in distance exchanges as I do think he’s made some improvements, but I can see him struggling as of right now with more mobile, higher volume heavyweights or additionally guys who can capitalize on his looser guard.
Petersen’s a base wrestler but we are starting to build a bigger sample of him on the feet.
He hasn’t always been the most active guy but when he does throw, it’s usually a strong left followed by a flurry of other strikes to primarily close distance.
However, he has shown pop with that left hand which has floored a few guys early in the past.
It was really his fight with Acosta to where we learned some more. Similarly, he had some success in those bursts, but Acosta started to chip away at him as the fight progressed when he couldn’t finish Acosta. It was the straight shots of Acosta in the jab to both the head and body that gave Peterson the biggest issues – a straight shot eventually floored him late in the 3rd.
Contextually not a bad loss though considering what Acosta’s been able to do so far in the UFC.
However, we additionally saw the straight shots from Pogues give Peterson issues to where he was effectively out struck through the first couple rounds – Peterson had a better 3rd round though where he was able to win there on the feet.
But most recently against Usman, he showed some more progression – he generally threw more than in past fights, outlanding Usman 72-61 at distance. While the numbers were competitive, Petersen was landing the better shots and also landed at 55% versus Usman at 34% — I thought his head movement looked better and was keeping a higher guard. In general, he just looked a lot more present and comfortable.
Overall, Usman isn’t a great talent but on paper, he was supposed to have the striking advantage in that fight so it’s good to see some maturation from Petersen in addition to his cardio looking better than in the past. He’s still developing as a striker in totality though.
How it plays out: Off the top, Gaziev will realize a size advantage in 3” of height and 4” in reach. The striking is interesting in the sense that both guys often look to command the center in their fights and haven’t been put on the back foot much so something will have to give there. The primary advantages I give to Gaziev outside of size are that he probably hits harder and is the more durable guy. But both have linear elements to their games and I wouldn’t classify either as overtly technical. So that kind of makes me think that general minutes could be competitive in the mid-range, but it may just come down to which guy gets the respect of the other. I’d still ultimately favor Gaziev though for more finish upside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Despite hailing from the Caucasus, I don’t believe Gaziev comes from any traditional wrestling/sambo background.
But the floor has been the primary credence to his career success as he’s reliable to shoot early and often where he’s by and large had his way with opponents.
The majority of guys he’s fought haven’t put up a ton of resistance though to where he’s been able to get on top of guys and pound them out or find submissions. But there have been a handful of fights where resistance has been applied, but he’s still been able to ultimately best them there.
However, he only went 1/7 against Rozenstruik, which wasn’t the best of looks – he did win the 1st though, which was the lone round he was able to secure.
So, he’s physically strong but I still don’t think he’s some “high level” guy in terms of pure wrestling technique really – although if you’re at least a competent wrestler at heavyweight, that will give you a leg up over quite a few guys.
We’ve seen him on the bottom a few times where he’s defended a kimura and back take more recently against Velasco where he was eventually able to reverse position. He’s also scrambled up in other sequences too, but we really haven’t seen him wrestled much so assessing his conventional TDD is still difficult.
Overall, Gaziev’s ground game is good enough to beat lower to mid-tier mid heavyweights most likely, but he may have some struggles against guys who can dig underhooks well and defend body locks.
Petersen comes from a wrestling background where he was a 2-time high school state champion in his native Minnesota – he eventually went on to wrestle at North Dakota State and Iowa Central in college.
The large majority of his fights have gone essentially the same way – Petersen looks to time his entries with blast doubles, body lock trips or single legs to get his opponents to the mat early and often.
From there, he’ll look to prioritize wrestle rides to slide to the back of opponents or take mount to which he pounds guys out.
He’s only a BJJ blue belt but was able to pick up his 1st pro win via submission on the Contender Series with a keylock – as noted, he has taken the back before but hasn’t threatened much with submissions.
So, while Peterson has looked largely dominant in his relatively short career, it needs to be noted that he’s mostly fought bums who can’t wrestle at all.
But I still consider Petersen’s wrestling decent as one doesn’t wrestle for a D-1 program or one of the best JUCO programs in the nation if they aren’t up to the task.
He didn’t realize much success on Pogues or Usman in the last few fights although he was able to get both guys down – both have been historically stronger TD defenders which needs to be noted though.
Defensively, I don’t think I’ve ever seen him shot on (at least with any real committal), on the bottom or threatened with viable submission attempts so Petersen as a defensive floor commodity is a complete question mark.
Overall, with Petersen coming from a stronger wrestling background, it should give him advantages in the UFC because a lot of guys can’t wrestle at the weight class. But we now have a 2-fight sample of Petersen when he hasn’t been able to just steamroll with his wrestling, he’s lost.
How it plays out: Despite both being base ground fighters, the floor is difficult to analyze because both just haven’t been shot on much and are the best wrestlers each other has fought to date. While we have the Velasco fight for Gaziev in getting his back taken, we at least have a couple fight sample showing that he can work up from bottom – we don’t have that for Petersen. While Petersen is the more credentialed guy, I think Gaziev will be difficult to take down given size and that Petersen has struggled in his last two fights. I lean Gaziev but it’s hard to say with Petersen being an untested TD defender.
Weird fight but good booking. I think there’s a realistic chance the wrestling cancels itself out but in theory, both could have high ceilings if they are securing takedowns. But I’m going with Gaziev for the win for the reasons of size, physicality and finishing upside. Like I said though, if the fight does devolve into a largely striking based affair and Gaziev doesn’t finish, I could see minutes being competitive.
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On DraftKings, this fight makes me somewhat uncomfortable with the lack of samples.
Gaziev is priced up to 9.3k too which means he’s the most expensive fighter on the entire slate. Yes he has a path to a ceiling but with McKinney and Pavlovich sitting right below him, I certainly don’t consider Gaziev a must.
Realistically, you’d be playing Gaziev on a typical slate for his wrestling domination upside. He scored 96 points in his UFC debut with wrestling and a TKO. It’s certainly possible he could achieve that here but also Petersen hasn’t really be tested defensively and he has a solid pedigree, so I’m not sold Gaziev finishes him easily.
And Gaziev not being able to have success against Rozenstruik is a pretty bad sign in my opinion, as Rozenstruik really isn’t capable on the mat. Ultimately, at 9.3k, I don’t know if I like Gaziev all that much this week.
He may be semi-contrarian though, given the strength of this range and the question marks surrounding this fight. There are still paths for him to win ITD early and he’s -140 to win ITD which is a solid mark. I don’t mind Gaziev.
I just don’t think I will prioritize him outright, and my gut feeling is that the fight could extend if the two neutralize each other on the mat.
Petersen at 6.9k is the cheapest fighter on the slate and honestly not a terrible option if you need to save salary.
There are many cheap fighters worth a look on this slate, for one reason or another. I don’t think much ownership will go to Petersen, but this is still a HW fight where Petersen can wrestle, and we’ve already seen Gaziev gas out and get TKOd.
I don’t know if Petersen has an immense ceiling, but I don’t think it’s crazy to believe he could extend this fight, and wrestle a bit to win a decision. He’s only +550 to win ITD.
I will prefer the more obvious upside darts in this range, like Hadzovic to name one example, but I don’t think Petersen is completely outmatched in this fight and at such a cheap price tag, he may not need to hit a ceiling to be optimal. A low-end target but one with viability based on the slate dynamics and pricing.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gaziev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Terrance McKinney vs. Damir Hadzovic
Fight Odds: McKinney -500, Hadzovic +375
Odds to end ITD: -800
DraftKings Salaries: McKinney 9.2k, Hadzovic 7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It is always going to be chaos when Terrance McKinney fights and that will be my expectation again as he takes on Damir Hadzovic this weekend.
McKinney is 15-7 professionally and 14 of his wins have come by first round finish. He comes from a wrestling background and is extremely dangerous early. He has power and has knocked several opponents dead. I don’t actually think McKinney is a very good striker as his defense is terrible, but he can clearly hurt anyone in the first couple of minutes.
Mckinney also showed some ground skills against Fares Ziam and Erick Gonzalez by taking them down and quickly submitting them early. I actually think McKinney is a decent MMA wrestler. He took down and controlled Sean Woodson for the first round quite easily on the Contender Series as well.
The issue with McKinney is that he has never thrived in extended fights. His wins have ended early and so have his losses. Usually if the fight gets extended past a round or so, he just slows down and is very fragile and gets finished. His cardio and durability are clear issues.
I think we can still reliably expect McKinney to be dangerous early in fights standing or on the mat. He can definitely threaten with big shots on the feet or a grappling / submission storm. I just do not trust this guy when he faces adversity though. He is a good hammer but a terrible nail.
McKinney will be taking on Damir Hadzovic. Hadzovic has never really been good and he hasn’t fought for well over two years. He is also now 38 years old. I am honestly not expecting much from Hadzovic going forward and was surprised that he was still in the UFC honestly.
Hadzovic is basically a striker. He lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.26 in return. He defends strikes at 62 percent. He is fairly aggressive on the feet and has some decent hands and pop.
Hadzovic landed 121 significant strikes in his last win against Yancy Medeiros which showed his volume capabilities though. Hadzovic also has some power and has knockout wins over Polo Reyes and Marcin Held. I do respect him on the feet a bit. He is tough and aggressive and can generally fight for 15 minutes.
The issue with Hadzovic is that he is a poor defensive grappler and wrestler. He has awful TDD at 34 percent and is so bad on the mat. Even a guy like Alan Patrick, who I don’t consider a good grappler, took him down nine times which is just awful. Hadzovic is just a major liability as a grappler, and it is hard to pick him to win against any competent grappler.
The one thing I can point out about Hadzovic is that he at least generally survives on the mat. He has only been submitted one time in 21 professional fights which was to Renato Moicano who is a legitimate BJJ black belt and submission grappler. Hadzovic has also only been knocked out once. So he does at least generally not get finished.
That could serve Hadzovic well here honestly against McKinney who is a guy who can collapse if he does not obtain an early finish. Perhaps Hadzovic can just extend this fight by surviving and put away a tired McKinney later in this matchup. It honestly wouldn’t shock me.
McKinney is also kind of a spaz and may strike and not shoot takedowns. I just don’t trust McKinney as a disciplined fighter who is guaranteed to follow a game plan. So there are windows of opportunities for Hadzovic and an upset wouldn’t be crazy.
Still though, Hadzovic is still a really poor wrestler and McKinney is levels above as a grappler when these guys are fresh.
McKinney can surely put Hadzovic in danger on the mat early or even just knock Hadzovic out standing. So I am going to pick McKinney to get his early finish just because he is SO much better as a wrestler and an athletic specimen early in this matchup. If McKinney doesn’t get the early finish, things may honestly get sketchy. However, I just can’t ignore the early grappling advantage that McKinney will have early in this fight.
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On DraftKings, this is a clear fight to target considering the style of McKinney, and I do expect the winner to contend for the optimal lineup.
McKinney, up to this point, has essentially only won quickly in fights, and has absolutely collapsed in pretty much every extended fight. Only three of his last 10 fights have extended past the first round, and none of those even reached the halfway mark of round two. McKinney is 5-5 in that span so he’s won ITD five times and been finished five times.
He’s now a heavy -500 favorite over Hadzovic which I do understand, but also don’t trust because of the fighter McKinney is. Let’s face it, Hadzovic isn’t a strong defensive wrestler and that’s why in his last three decision losses, he’s been taken down a combined 25 times! McKinney has never won a decision though… nor has he ever landed more than two takedowns in a fight..
McKinney better get Hadzovic out of there early or we could easily see the -500 favorite lose.
McKinney is priced up to 9.2k and I’m guessing he’ll be super chalky. His wins have scored 131, 102 105, 97 and 127. While he could get topped by someone else in that range, McKinney is -350 to win ITD and his path to victory is pretty heavily tied toward early grappling success and a finish.
Against an opponent like Hadzovic who can’t wrestle defensively, McKinney will have opportunities to finish him early. I’m not super confident he’ll get it done but the upside is obvious, and he’s an easy place to pay up.
Hadzovic is absolutely in play at 7k. I wouldn’t call you crazy if you wanted to argue that the most likely outcome if this fight even hits round two is Hadzovic winning by knockout. That might be a stretch, but McKinney has been brutally knocked out in two of his last three losses and Hadzovic is dangerous. Especially if McKinney is tired in front of him, Hadzovic can tee off.
The real question is whether he can stop any takedowns. Maybe he’s just so bad defensively at age 38 that McKinney can win his first decision by laying on top of Hadzovic for three rounds. Clearly, Hadzovic is a big dog for a reason.
But he should carry a ton of leverage against McKinney, save a ton of salary at 7k, in a fight that’s -800 to end inside the distance. Hadzovic has early KO upside as well.
I don’t know if I want to hammer this spot necessarily, but I absolutely think you should have exposure here in tournaments, and I would probably call Hadzovic closer to a “good” play than a real “punt” just based on the matchup dynamics.
The fight is currently -245 to finish in less than 1.5 rounds, and with that kind of early finishing equity, having moderate exposure to the winner is ideal.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: McKinney by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Fight Odds: Jasudavicius -261, Bueno Silva +215
Odds to end ITD: +220
DraftKings Salaries: Jasudavicius 8.9k, Bueno Silva 7.3k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have been extremely impressed with Jasmine Jasudavicius lately and she has cashed for us a lot, including in her last matchup against Ariane Lipski.
Jasmine looked really good in her win against Miranda Maverick. She wrestled and struck hard and showed some really good cardio in an upset win. I also thought Jasmine looked decent with her wrestling game in her loss against Tracy Cortez. She then dominated Priscila Cachoeira and showed she can wreck weak grapplers on the mat. Most recently, she dominated Fatima Kline in a decision win by outwrestling her and then finished Lipski on the mat. She is just racking up so many wins.
Jasmine is mostly a grappler and more specifically a wrestler. She likes to clinch her opponents up with a body lock, get the takedown and go to work in top position. I have also seen her shoot good double legs as well. Her top game is heavy, and I do like her ground-and-pound. She will posture up and throw some hard shots. I really like how relentless she is in top position. She has also shown a front choke game and submitted two of her last three opponents.
Jasmine lands 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I consider her takedowns decent. She is tenacious and her pace and physicality assists her takedowns in general. I also have liked the tdd of Jasmine and she defends takedowns at 75 percent, and works up to her feet well. She is fantastic at reversing opponents and turning her opponents’ offensive wrestling into her own top positional opportunities.
Although Jasmine is long, she doesn’t use her length to control range on the feet. She is not technical on the feet at all. She lands 3.70 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.81. She is a bit of a punching bag. I actually thought Jasmine’s striking has looked better lately though. It is moreso her pace and pressure than her striking lately. She just walks forward and backs her opponents up well, and can land her shots.
I still think Jasmine has flaws though. She isn’t technical at all on the feet and is super hittable. However, she is tenacious and pressures hard. She also seems extremely tough and won’t back down or let a big shot deter her. She will look to land offense and she is big as well. I think she can continue to grind out wins with takedowns, control, and pace at this level.
Jasmine will be taking on former title challenger Marya Bueno Silva. Silva is a weird fighter. Even though she is mostly a striker, she has six wins in the UFC and five have actually come by submission.
Silva is an okay striker. She lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.00 in return. That honestly isn’t good and she can be outslicked and skilled on the feet. Her defense is just not good. However, she hits pretty hard for a woman so she can make up for her negative striking ratio with effective strikes and power.
Silva lands 0.64 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t the best takedown artist. I do think she is tricky and has instincts for finding the back which she did against Pennington in her title fight. However, her actual takedowns aren’t great.
Silva defends takedowns at an okay 67 percent. However, she can be held down for stretches and doesn’t have the best get ups. She can also surrender ground-and-pound at times. She does have a dangerous guard though. I mean, as I mentioned above, she has five submission wins in the UFC.
I don’t totally like Silva’s process as a fighter to be honest. She can lose rounds on the feet by being outlanded because her defense is suspect. She can also be held down on the mat. She is super dangerous though. She has finishing ability on the feet and on the mat so it honestly just makes her fights difficult to predict as it is a guessing game on how many big moments Silva can have. Big moments are just tough to predict.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to go with Jasmine as she is a superior wrestler and I think she is a more processed fighter to win rounds. Jasmine can actually dominate rounds with top position while Silva is just too reliant on big moments.
I definitely think Jasmine can land takedowns here and obtain top position. For that reason alone, I am going to pick her to win.
I still think Silva can have moments here though. She is a much more dangerous striker and I definitely think she can land hard on Jasmine, so there may be some sketchy moments. Silva is also a dangerous submission grappler so perhaps Silva can submit Jasmine off her back. Jasmine has had some rounds where she took too long to wrestle as well so that is another potential concern.
Jasmine seems so tough though which I think is important in analyzing this matchup. She looks like someone who will take a big shot and keep coming forward. She also seems like someone who will do anything she can to fight off any submissions coming her way. I also think Jasmine looks like a competent stifler of submissions and is really heavy on top with a good base. She has never been submitted in 15 pro fights which is good. She honestly may beat up Silva with ground and pound too.
So I am going to pick Jasmine to win by getting takedowns, control, and ground and pound. I think she is physical and seasoned enough to fight off submissions. There will likely be some scary moments as I do think Silva will land some power shots and attempt some dangerous submissions. However, I think Jasmine is good and tough enough to fight through them and get her game going.
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On DraftKings, I expect Jasudavicius to be a popular pay up target at 8.9k, considering her grappling style.
This isn’t as easy of a matchup as some of Jas’ past wins, but in wins, she’s scored 104, 91, 169, 85, 105 and 86. It’s a pretty solid track record for a fighter who has four decision wins of those six results.
And given the matchup, I don’t see Jasmine standing and trading and easily winning. She’ll continue to wrestle, probably earn a bunch of top time, and land a bunch of strikes. I’m less confident in her ability to finish Bueno Silva though, which could potentially diminish her ceiling. She’s actually +550 to win ITD which is awful.
Nonetheless, takedowns, control and ground strikes still can be enough to surpass 100 points if there’s enough dominance. Jas has shown to have a strong floor and moderate ceiling. At 8.9k on a short slate, she’s a pretty quality target who is continuing to get bet up on the moneyline.
I do like the 9k range for tournaments so I wouldn’t say she’s a must, but at 8.9k, Jas will likely find her way onto a lot of my lineups, and she could end up as chalk publicly as well.
Bueno Silva is priced at 7.3k and I think her best chance to win will be by submission.
Yes, she can outstrike Jasmine but that’s still reliant on her actually defending takedowns, which I don’t think is very realistic. I do think it’s pretty realistic that when Jasmine wrestles, Bueno Silva will jump on a guillotine or an armbar though, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she pulls it off.
It’s not an outcome I like to bet on but that’s typically how Bueno Silva wins and against a grappler like Jasmine, I think Bueno Silva will continue attempting submissions. Her ITD line is better than Jasmine’s at +385.
At 7.3k, I don’t mind Bueno Silva. It’s quite likely that if she does pull off the submission, it’s early rather than late when they are fresh and less sweaty. So we could see a 90-100 point score perhaps, which Bueno Silva has achieved four times.
Plus, there should be leverage on her against the more popular Jasmine. The downside is just that she may very well get held down all fight and not produce many points. Bueno Silva isn’t processed so she isn’t a great bet.
In DFS though, I do like her upside potential in a win, and the price and leverage, so all things considered a sprinkle of Bueno Silva in tournaments makes sense.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jasudavicius by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Bogdan Grad vs. Lucas Alexander
Fight Odds: Alexander -114, Grad -101
Odds to end ITD: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Grad 8.3k, Alexander 7.9k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really fun action fight here between Lucas Alexander and Bogdan Grad.
It was pretty embarrassing for Lucas Alexander to lose to Jeka Saragih in his last matchup. Saragih is not good, took the fight on short notice, and Alexander was a monster favorite. Saragih landed a very early knockout in round one for the upset. It was pretty surprising and a bit concerning to see Alexander knocked out like that.
Alexander made his UFC debut against Joanderson Brito in October of 2022. He got his back taken and was quickly submitted.
I tend to think Alexander was a bit better than he showed there though. Sure his competition hadn’t been great and he hadn’t beaten anyone good yet. However, he looked like a decent striker to me on tape. That showed in his last win against Steven Peterson. He beat the hell out of Peterson, knocked him down, and outlanded him 85-26 in significant strikes.
Alexander is pretty technical on the feet. He has some technical striking and can work the head, body and legs with kicks and punches. He is pretty fast and a decent athlete. He can counter well too and he can fight going forward or backward. He also generally looks good defensively on the feet. I do think he can strike at this level.
Alexander doesn’t really look to grapple much offensively, and I don’t expect it to be a path to victory for him at this level.
There are concerns with Alexander though. I don’t love his submission grappling. He has decent TDD honestly and pops up pretty well, but he gives up his back. I also think he can wilt to pressure fighters and be easier to land on with strikes and takedowns as the fight goes. If you make it ugly with him, I could just see him losing. I still think he is a decent defensive wrestler from a first layer defense perspective, but I don’t fully trust him on the mat. I also hated seeing him knocked out recently. It was his only knockout loss so perhaps I am overreacting, but we definitely need to monitor his durability going forward.
Alexander will be taking on Bogdan Grad. Grad is 14-2 professionally and is 29 years old. He was born in Romania and fights out of Austria.
Grad was knocked out on the Contender Series in 2023 by Tom Nolan. He then finished a couple of guys on the regionals and got another chance on the Contender Series against Michael Aswell toward the end of last year. He won a split decision against Aswell. It was mostly a striking fight but Grad landed three takedowns as well. He was actually outlanded 155-102 in significant strikes which is a bit concerning for his defense.
Grad is kind of just an aggressive pressure fighter. On the feet, apparently he comes from a kickboxing background but I don’t consider him a technical striker. He is just aggressive and will walk forward and throw bombs. He definitely has some power and he has eight wins by knockout. He can also land volume just by being aggressive.
I still really worry about Grad’s defense though. He absorbed 155 strikes in that Contender Series fight and he also slowed down a bit. I just think good strikers who are defensively sound can probably pick him apart. He has been knocked out once by Nolan, but I do at least consider him pretty tough. Still, it is not good to eat that many shots as he will probably get knocked out again.
Grad isn’t a great wrestler, but he has an okay double leg. He will at least pursue takedowns at times and is fairly tenacious. He can sort of float on top. He has a pretty good guillotine choke and has won by submission three times, with a brown belt in BJJ. I think he can have success vs weak grapplers, but I doubt he can do much against above-average grapplers. I have seen him taken down here and there though, but doesn’t seem like a huge liability on the mat.
Grad just seems like a guy who will fight hard. He will attempt takedowns and he will go forward on the feet and look to land power shots. I just worry about his striking defense and his actual skills though.
As far as this matchup goes, I think I am going to go with Alexander because I trust him more as a round winning striker.
If this is an extended kickboxing fight, I definitely favor Alexander. I honestly like Alexander’s striking if his durability holds up. I think he is faster than Grad and more technical. Alexander can mix to all levels and I think he will land pretty easily on Grad. I think the speed can play a big factor here. It may honestly lead to a knockout for Alexander or a clear 30-27 decision.
The issue is that Grad is super aggressive which can lead to success for him. Grad may clip Alexander. That wouldn’t shock me at all. We just saw Alexander knocked dead. Furthermore, I think Grad has a chance for some takedowns here. Alexander has decent takedown defense but I still don’t totally trust him as a defensive grappler especially when he is grounded. I think Grad is tenacious enough to potentially test Alexander there. I also think Grad is more likely to win by submission. He has a tricky guillotine choke.
So Grad does have paths to victory and I think a competitive line makes sense. I still think Alexander is the cleaner, faster, and more skillful striker so I am going to pick him in this matchup. Both guys have reasonable paths to victory though.
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On DraftKings, I love the potential pacing for this matchup so on a short slate, it feels like one of the better matchups to target.
Alexander is trending toward being the chalky side at 7.9k, as he’s been bet up to a slight favorite over the course of a week. He’s a capable striker, facing off with Grad who has already been KOd early, and just yielded 155 sig. strikes on DWCS.
If Alexander wins, it surely feels like it could come via knockout. Perhaps a high-paced striking based decision wouldn’t be enough to get him to the optimal, but at 7.9k, there is some wiggle room.
Alexander is +250 to win ITD which is decent, and I consider him a solid secondary target. This is still a competitively lined fight though, so if he is projecting much higher than Grad solely based on salary, it would make sense to consider the leverage side as well.
Grad is priced at 8.3k and may be that leverage side, though he’s rating out well overall now with a +175 ITD line. He has 100+ sig. strike upside, and he may have wrestling equity here too.
I don’t think he’s a great talent, and I doubt he easily walks forward and KOs Alexander, but Alexander just got KOd by a weak opponent so it’s very possible. Regardless, if Grad wins, it’s going to come from pressure, and offensive production that could potentially lead to a finish.
Maybe he won’t be underowned due to this dynamic, as it surely feels like his floor/ceiling combination in a win is strong. I think he’s technically worse than Alexander, but it’s a close fight.
So I will be investing in Grad too at 8.3k, and it wouldn’t be wrong to prioritize him outright. It’s a high paced fight that’s -140 to end inside the distance, with good mid-range prices, so I’m hopeful for its fantasy potential and will try to make a reasonable investment here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Alexander by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Jamal Pogues
Fight Odds: Abdelwahab -110, Pogues -104
Odds to end ITD: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Pogues 8.2k, Abdelwahab 8k
Weight Class: HW
Oh boy, do we have a low-level heavyweight slop fest coming at us on Saturday between Hamdy Abdelwahab and Jamal Pogues to open the card.
Funny enough, I have good memories from Abdelwahab, as he successfully cashed for me as an underdog in his UFC debut against Don’Tale Mayes. That was in July of 2022, and Abdelwahab hasn’t fought since.
Why you ask? Well he might or might not have been handed down multiple USADA suspensions for taking anabolic steroids and additional testosterone. Whoops.
Regardless, Abdelwahab will be stepping back into the Octagon after nearly three years on the shelf, hoping to improve upon his undefeated 5-0 record.
What further complicates things is that prior to that debut, Abdelwahab was getting a ton of hate to the point that he was an underdog to Mayes. His regional competition was weak and he didn’t prove much there, though he had quick KOs over all of his opponents.
However, Abdelwahab made the Olympics in 2016 for Greco-Roman, representing Egypt. He may not be an NCAA champion and this is HW which means the skill level is diminished anyway, but Abdelwahab is decent, somewhat powerful, and has more variety in his wrestling than purely upper body takedowns.
In that debut, he landed three takedowns on four attempts and had Mayes hurt early in the fight. I don’t think his submission game is exceptional but he’s capable of riding top position and landing ground-and-pound.
Abdelwahab also has some power in his hands. He’s not a great boxer and won’t land lots of strikes per minute, but he’s semi-dangerous and it’s not a terrible addition to his primary wrestling skill.
I definitely think we’ll see Abdelwahab lose soon to an opponent who can defend takedowns or scramble back up. I think he will be most dangerous early in fights when he’s fresh. Any opponent who can extend the fight and pick him apart on the feet down the stretch has a decent shot to win.
Jamal Pogues is coming off a decision win over Thomas Peterson last February, which makes him 2-1 in the organization, with an additional two more wins in DWCS.
Pogues has four wins by knockout and one by submission, but he’s not dangerous in any area of the game and it will be difficult to pick him confidently moving forward.
The best attribute we’ve seen in his game is volume wrestling. Pogues landed seven takedowns in one of his Contender Series fights, and then he landed five takedowns against Josh Parisian in his UFC debut.
But without much finishing potential, those takedowns don’t mean much. Pogues literally landed 22 ground strikes from those 12 takedowns landed, so he’s just not very active. Nor is his submission grappling great, despite being a BJJ black belt.
Defensively, Pogues isn’t great either. He’s only been taken down a couple of times but he was flattened out by Petersen recently and looked incompetent when held on his back.
On the feet, he’s a very basic boxer, at best. Parisian outlanded him 35 to 20 at distance, and he was pieced up by Mick Parkin and outlanded 92 to 34.
Most recently, he did have success against Petersen, outlanding him 56 to 54 at distance, though I thought Pogues did more damage and looked more competent than before in those striking exchanges.
Still, without much power, or volume, Pogues isn’t really a threat on the feet and his best chance is working behind a jab for 15 minutes. For now, I consider him a low-level talent, and a somewhat capable offensive wrestler when he can essentially lay on top of his opponents.
I am definitely conflicted here, in part because of Abdelwahab’s absence. I think it’s totally fair to pick him to be the superior wrestler in the matchup, land a few takedowns, earn some control and have better moments.
I don’t know if Abdelwahab will have an easy time finishing though, outside of an early KO, and Pogues is durable ish. I really did not like how Pogues looked on the bottom against Petersen, so projecting some upside to Abdelwahab’s wrestling feels fair.
I just don’t know how to cap the layoff. Abdelwahab may lack in physicality off his steroids or have cardio issues. He’s 32 years old so he’s not young. I just don’t have a great feeling about his return.
At the same time, Pogues really isn’t a threat, so I’m open to the idea that basic wrestling is enough to beat him.
Conversely, I think Pogues is going to be the more consistent boxer. He’ll have a five-inch reach advantage over Abdelwahab and I’d trust him a little more down the stretch.
Perhaps Pogues can wrestle too. If Abdelwahab is tired, his credentials won’t matter. I still don’t think Pogues could do much with his takedowns but landing a few and laying on Abdelwahab is within the range of outcomes.
It ultimately makes sense to line this fight competitively, all things considered. I think I will lean toward Pogues simply on the basis that he’s fought four times since Abdelwahab last competed, and might have some boxing advantages at distance. I don’t feel great about it though.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think this is the worst fight to target, though in hindsight it may not end well.
Both fighters are low level which means both have holes in their games for the other to capitalize on and produce offense. Both are priced in the mid-range with Pogues and Abdelwahab at 8.2k and 8k respectively. On an 11 fight slate, I could see the winner exceeding value.
Pogues is priced at 8.2k and will either need a KO or volume wrestling. He’s scored 56 and 82 in his two decision wins. I don’t particularly trust either outcome here, and he’s only +340 to win ITD so he’ll rate out very poorly.
I suppose you’d be buying into the narrative more of a big layoff and steroid suspension affecting Abdelwahab. He’s only got five pro fights. Maybe he gets tired, hurt and/or taken down. I definitely don’t love Pogues but at a very low public ownership, perhaps he’s one path to separating yourself.
Abdelwahab has a cleaner shot at the optimal because he actually can and probably will wrestle. And he’s got a handful of KOs. A win condition for him lies with damage and wrestling so he’s the safer upside bet of the two.
Abdelwahab is only +330 to win ITD as well, so he won’t rate out great. He scored 100 points in his UFC debut though and is trending as the value side at 8k, so of the two, I would expect him to be higher owned publicly.
I don’t have any faith in Abdelwahab at this point, but I don’t mind him as a secondary target due to his skill set. He’ll be very boom or bust regardless. Pogues may be more of the leverage side and I probably will end up with less exposure to him myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pogues by Decision (Confidence=Low)