Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer
Fight Odds: Adesanya -150, Pyfer +130
Odds to end ITD: -175
DraftKings Salaries: Adesanya 8.5k, Pyfer 7.7k
Weight Class: 185
Former middleweight king and future Hall-of-Famer, Israel Adesanya will square off with the next breed of contender in Joe Pyfer this weekend.
Adesanya had an epic run up the divisional ladder where he became one of the biggest stars in the sport, but he’s now suffered three consecutive losses, and it’s pretty clear that his time at the top has passed.
I was honestly never the highest on Adesanya from an analytical standpoint, although I considered him an elite kickboxer and clearly among the best strikers in the division, his game is somewhat limited.
Adesanya only lands 4.02 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 3.2 per minute with a 56 percent striking defense. His metrics are fine, but his pure volume isn’t elite. He’s competed in nine fights that have seen round five, and he’s only topped out at 119, 116 and 109 significant strikes.
I also wouldn’t label Adesanya a real power striker. While he’s super creative and fully capable of winning by knockout, he’s more of an attritional striker. He’s only scored two knockdowns in his last 38 rounds, although he’s fought very strong competition along the way.
Furthermore, Adesanya won’t wrestle. If anything it is a negative in his game. And when you couple it all together, Adesanya mostly rates out as a solid, round winning striker which is fine but difficult to fully buy into at the highest level.
The primary issue now is that Adesanya isn’t even winning rounds. He was badly hurt and out paced by Sean Strickland. He looked fine against Du Plessis for a while but was hurt and eventually submitted. And most recently, he was hurt and knocked out by Nassourdine Imavov in the second round.
It makes for an interesting matchup against Pyfer who will come with the superior finishing abilities in this matchup.
Pyfer is a skilled athlete, and a physical fighter. He’s powerful on the feet, and he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu who should have clear advantages on the mat.
Pyfer is 15-3 professionally with nine wins by knockout and four by submission. He did win a recent decision against Kelvin Gastelum but I don’t put nearly as much stock into his round winning ability as I do in his potential for big moments.
It’s not that Pyfer cannot compete on a per minute basis – he’s fine – he lands 3.47 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 3.05 per minute with a 53 percent striking defense. But he isn’t going to land an absurd amount of volume and that partially relates to his explosive nature.
Even against Gastelum, he won rounds with two knockdowns, and only landed 57 strikes in three rounds. He lost a five-round decision to Jack Hermansson in 2024 where he landed 92 significant strikes and gave up 121.
That’s a primary talking point because we were on Hermansson as an underdog in that spot, in part because Pyfer still had not proven capable of winning extended rounds at a high rate. Pyfer looked good early, but was outpaced in rounds 3-5 and ultimately lost because of it.
Hermansson was just so consistent with throwing jabs and leg kicks, and Pyfer didn’t really have a way around it.
Pyfer can mix it up with takedowns but I don’t think he’s an elite wrestler. He lands 1.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and his career high is three takedowns landed against Alhassan in 2023. He went 0/6 against Hermansson and 0/4 most recently against Magomedov.
When Pyfer does get on top, he’s a good grappler though with submission equity. I fully trust him to do some damage or threaten with a finish if he can earn control. I don’t fully trust him to earn the control though.
Otherwise, Pyfer has knocked down five of his last eight opponents, which doesn’t include the TKO win over Meerschaert, the sub over Alhassan and the loss to Hermansson. He’s not fully dependent on damage but it’s a big part of his game.
Against Adesanya, I do think Pyfer likely needs these big moments to win.
I am far from trusting in Adesanya at this stage to the point I may pick Pyfer to win, but on a per round basis, Adesanya is the more technical and more diverse striker. While he will be limited in volume, he’s not facing an opponent in Pyfer to push the envelope.
I wouldn’t really be surprised if Adesanya was able to fight more creatively here, strike at a slow or moderate pace and simply win rounds. Pyfer will throw some big shots but he’s a couple inches shorter than Adesanya with five less inches of reach, and will struggle to land. Adesanya winning rounds seems pretty likely, and I think Adesanya winning by decision is a fairly likely outcome.
I suppose Adesanya could hurt Pyfer along the way too but Pyfer feels durable, and I wouldn’t bet on that outcome.
The real question is if Adesanya can survive the few early moments of danger that Pyfer will bring, and I’m honestly not sure he can. Pyfer has more power, and I think has a reasonable shot to hurt Adesanya early. I also think if he gets on top of Adesanya, he could find a submission. A club-and-sub is in play here too.
It’s not typically the outcome I’d pick but I could very much see it. And because Adesanya is limited in volume, there’s also more danger here of him winning 80 percent of a round by not doing much, and then losing the round late with one big shot. So Pyfer winning by decision is still in play if he can stagger his big moments throughout multiple rounds, and/or land a couple of takedowns.
I kind of think Adesanya will stuff his takedowns which makes me nervous on the Pyfer side. Again, if Pyfer can actually get on top, he might just finish. Because he has all the grappling upside and a fair share of the knockout equity in the matchup, picking him to win feels pretty reasonable.
I’m going to pick the dog here to win. I’m going to pick Adesanya to win some early minutes until Pyfer finds one big shot that ends the fight. I’m not confident in the result and I think Adesanya is very live to win a decision, but his form scares me enough to take the risk on Pyfer’s finishing abilities.
—
On DraftKings, because of the dynamics of the matchup, I think Pyfer is the superior play.
Of the two, I am much more confident that if Pyfer wins, he’d find his way onto the optimal lineup than I am if Adesanya wins. And you could go so far as to say that if Adesanya wins, there’s a good chance he’s NOT on the optimal lineup.
At 8.5k, I don’t feel great about this spot for Izzy. I typically hate targeting him and I’ve faded him numerous times in the past, often with success. It’s not that he cannot be optimal in a win but if Izzy gets his way, he probably lands 100-120 strikes in five rounds, wins a decision, and puts up 70-80 DK points.
MMA Labs has Adesanya scoring only 11.3 DK points per 5 minutes which is incredibly low, and fits the fears I have for an extended affair. He’s averaging 87.7 points in his wins too, which is low, and the only time Adesanya has ever really smashed in a decision was when he beat Gastelum and knocked him down four times in the process.
Adesanya is only +250 to win ITD which isn’t super strong, and I don’t feel great about his chances to win by KO. I especially don’t love his chances to win by early KO. I don’t want to completely rule out that outcome, but I don’t want to rely on Adesanya to score an early KO here.
At 8.5k, I just don’t love the spot. He’s kind of overpriced and he’s going to get a fair amount of public ownership by default as the main event favorite. I honestly think the public will be scared off as well, and we might see him in the mid 30s instead of the mid 40s or 50s, but even that is too high for my liking.
I view Adesanya as an acceptable secondary target. He could find his way to 80 points in a decision and things could randomly swing in his direction. He could also find a knockout and score 100 points. But the chances that he loses or wins by decision is too great for me to make a real investment here and I’d personally rather be underweight.
Pyfer is priced at 7.7k and is averaging 96.4 points per win, which I would much rather take at the cost.
Pyfer is honestly on the lower end too at 14.8 DK points per 5 minutes, and Adesanya only allows 10.6 DK points per minute. This really sets up to be a super slow paced fight unless Pyfer can force exchanges.
However, I do think he can win ITD and it could come early. He’s +130 to win ITD which is better than Adesanya’s line and it makes more sense logically. He could also wrestle and has upside to land a few takedowns.
I still consider this a risky matchup, but I also think Pyfer’s win equity is more heavily tied to his finishing equity, and therefore, is a reasonable upside target. I also believe he’ll be more popular of the two because of this dynamic, and could come in owned in the mid 40s.
I’m not looking to take a massive stand on Pyfer. He’s one of the better underdogs on the slate for upside, but he still needs to win, and he is the underdog. I like having moderate exposure here just in case.
Fading the fight on a moderate number of lineups and hoping for an Adesanya decision is very much viable as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pyfer by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber
Fight Odds: Barber -185, Grasso +160
Odds to end ITD: +290
DraftKings Salaries: Barber 8.8k, Grasso 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting rematch here between Maycee Barber and Alexa Grasso.
These two fought back in 2021 which was actually Barber’s last loss. Grasso was able to win the decision by winning the first two rounds with super technical boxing at range. In round 3, Barber had a ton of success and won that round easily but it was too little too late. The fight was very competitive on the numbers. Grasso outlanded Barber 40-38 in significant strikes but Barber landed 3 takedowns.
Barber has had an interesting ride in the last year or so. We saw Barber compete against Kaitlyn Chookagian in March of 2024. Barber actually looked good in that matchup. She roughed Chookagian up in close quarters a bit and landed 4 takedowns, and I thought she looked good.
Barber then had a main event matchup scheduled against Erin Blanchfield in May of this last year. These girls were literally about to walk out to the cage. That is how close this fight was to happening. Then the fight was randomly cancelled on the broadcast due to a medical emergency related to Barber. The whole sequence of events was bizarre. The broadcasters were stunned as well.
Since then, we had learned that Barber had some type of seizure and the doctors deemed her medically unable to compete. They don’t know exactly what caused the seizure but it was likely due to previous health issues she was having and the hard weight cut. Barber then returned against Karine Silva and basically looked like herself and was able to win. So it was good to see her bounce back.
My guess is Barber will look like herself again here against Grasso considering she has been medically cleared to compete. Anytime Barber has actually made it to the cage, she has looked fine.
Barber is a decently well-rounded fighter. She lands 4.61 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.76 in return. She defends strikes at 54 percent. I personally don’t think Barber is the best range striker. She is okay. She definitely hits hard and can outstrike the lower tier fighters of this division at range.
However, Barber is much better as a striker in close quarters and in the clinch where she can use her physicality advantage. For example, she outlanded Montana De La Rosa 40-10 in the clinch and 4-3 at distance. Maverick outlanded Barber 43-26 at distance but Barber did good work in the clinch. She also looked good against Chookagian in close range. Barber just does much better work in the clinch than at range.
Barber is a decent grappler. She lands 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes. She isn’t the best takedown artist but again she is very physical and I think she has improved from an offensive standpoint. If she manages to get in top position, she is capable of landing ruthless ground-and-pound. She is fully capable of finishing fights from top position.
Barber defends takedowns at 51 percent. I do think good grapplers can have success against her. She has been controlled on the mat in pre ufc fights. Even Jessica Eye held her down at the end of round 2 of their fight. However, Barber isn’t a bad defensive grappler and again her physicality really helps her out in grappling situations. She uses explosive movement to reverse position. I thought her defensive grappling and get ups looked a bit better against Chookagian and Ribas. She does have some issues on the mat though.
I just really think Barber will continue to do well in fights where she can use her physicality in the clinch and get occasional top position. Good grapplers can probably have success against her and good range strikers probably can too. However, Barber always has that power and physicality to beat girls up and turn fights in her favor. Barber also has fantastic cardio and that is one of her biggest advantages.
Her opponent Alexa Grasso is coming off some awful performances but against great competition. Grasso got schooled by Natalia Silva to a three round striking based decision loss. Prior to that, she got schooled by Valentina Shevchenko where she was taken down and held down for the majority of the fight.
Grasso is basically a boxer and a pretty decent one. Grasso lands 4.11 significant strikers per minute and absorbs 3.73 in return. She has some sharp hands, and I like her game on the feet to a degree. She doesn’t have massive power, but she does land clean and can mark her opponents up. I also think Grasso is just tough as nails and extremely durable. She has good cardio too.
I do think Grasso is a bit limited though as she doesn’t really have much of a kicking arsenal and is generally reliant on her hands.
Grasso doesn’t wrestle much offensively. She only lands 0.41 takedowns per 15 minutes. So she is basically limited to winning fights on the feet. She is a capable BJJ player though and if she finds an opportunity to take the back she can make opponents pay like when she submitted Valentina Shevchenko by submission back in 2023 to win the belt.
Grasso defends takedowns at 54 percent which is okay. She can be taken down and held down as we saw in her loss to Shevchenko. She can get up at times though and I don’t think her get up game is awful. It can definitely use improvement though.
As far as this matchup goes, I honestly just see it as super competitive again.
I absolutely could see Grasso winning a competitive decision by winning the range boxing exchanges. I do think Grasso is more skillful than Barber at range. If the fight just exclusively plays out there Grasso probably wins. However, that is the only real path to victory for Grasso and it would have to be a tight one.
I do think Barber could win a competitive range striking fight too. However, I think Barber has a little bit of clinch and physicality upside too. I could see her just clinching Grasso up against the cage and making this a dirty fight where Berber could likely do the better work.
Furthermore, of the two, Barber is more likely to land takedowns and I think Barber may have better cardio too. So I sort of see it as a competitive fight where Barber has more ways to pull away or win a clean round. I also think since the first fight, Barber has probably improved a bit while Grasso has maybe regressed a bit.
This is a close one though and I just expect at least one or two very tight rounds so we are going to likely get a 29-28 type of decision here.
—
On DraftKings, I’m pretty much only interested in the Barber side, if at all.
She is priced up to 8.8k and can flash a ceiling from time to time. Barber only averages 88 DK points per win but she is knockout capable, and we’ve seen her top 100 points on a few occasions where she’s scored the finish.
Against Grasso the last time, Barber would have only scored 68 DK points in a win, which is a major problem. She did land three takedowns and I think that gives her some upside, but Grasso looked fine from her back and was even able to reverse position.
So unless Barber gets those takedowns again, and dominates her way to a TKO stoppage, my guess is she doesn’t score enough to be optimal. She is only +325 to win ITD which is obviously poor for the price tag.
Honestly, you could fade Barber. She’s not going to project super well and her ITD line sucks compared to most others on this slate. I do think her style can lead to strong scores, and in her past two decision wins, she’s put up 90 and 99 DK points. So mixing her in as a secondary/price target isn’t a horrible idea, especially if she’s low owned.
Based on what we saw from her against Grasso last time, her ceiling is likely limited though, and she is ultimately not a priority because of it.
Grasso is priced at 7.4k and is only a win equity target.
Grasso historically doesn’t score well, and in her last win against Barber, she put up 70 DK points. I honestly think that’s closer to her ceiling considering she was able to earn five minutes of control and one reversal.
Grasso could in theory score a submission, but she’s only +900 to win ITD so it’s not a very realistic outcome.
In small fields, I think Gasso is OK as a floor type of target. You hope she’s the cheapest winner and at that point, it might not matter what she scores. It’s harder for me to justify much of her in large fields where any other underdog win is likely to exceed her score.
I’m also guessing Grasso will be low owned, so maybe that helps. At +160 to win and 7.4k, maybe that’s just enough in a win. Things really have to roll your way on the rest of the slate which I don’t love.
Perhaps Grasso is viable as a low-end, floor, win equity target but I’m firmly capping my exposure here due to any lack of ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barber by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price
Fight Odds: Chiesa -800, Price +550
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Chiesa 9.5k, Price 6.7k
Weight Class: 170
It’s the retirement fight for longtime UFC veteran and current commentator Michael Chiesa at home in Seattle, who will take on a short notice replacement Niko Price.
Chiesa was originally scheduled to fight Carlston Harris, but Harris pulled out last week and the UFC brought in a fine replacement in Niko Price.
Chiesa actually won The Ultimate Fighter in 2012 which dates me quite a bit, and although he never found his way into truly contending for the title, Chiesa had a lot of wins over the years and has been a pretty consistent performer, even in recent years.
I’ve actually never loved his game because he’s such a submission grappling dependent fighter, who also tends to lose by submission. So it’s like, if I can’t even count on you to succeed in your best strength, how can I count on you at all?
With that said, he’s lost to quality competition like Kevin Holland, Sean Brady, Vincente Luque, Anthony Pettis, Kevin Lee, Joe Lauzon, and Jorge Masvidal. It’s not a terrible resume and his game simply isn’t built to beat elite opposition.
Chiesa lands only 2.03 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 1.73 per minute with a 57 percent striking defense. Believe it or not, his career high in significant strikes landed was in his last matchup against Court McGee where he landed 72.
Chiesa has only scored one knockdown in his career, and he’s never been knocked down. He’s certainly not a fighter I trust to win striking exchanges, but he does well to limit them and doesn’t take a whole lot of damage because of it.
Chiesa is a fine wrestler and lands 3.05 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s not super physical and I don’t consider him truly special there, but he’s capable and tricky as a submission grappler which means he’s always live for back takes.
Chiesa has a bunch of RNCs on his record which is his primary submission. If you allow him to take you down, and take your back, Chiesa will win pretty comfortably. Otherwise, he’s not a major threat, and he can be taken down and submitted himself.
He’ll be taking on Niko Price who will likely do the job he’s supposed to do here, which is come out, force a fun couple minutes and then give up his back.
Price has been competing since 2016 and has generally traded wins and losses, although we’ve seen a lot more losses come in recent years. He’s now lost five of his last six fights and was most recently TKOd by Veretennikov in February.
Price isn’t horrible. He’s a high volume striker with some knockout power, and he lands 5.13 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 5.61, with a 48 percent defensive rate. He doesn’t win rounds at a very high rate but he’s been in some wars.
Price is also an OK submission grappler and is live to pull off some fun moments. He’s also won by KO from his back multiple times, and is sort of a meme in that sense.
His recent losses don’t bother me too much. Veretennikov is a better striker. Jacobe Smith is a beast. Gorimbo is a better wrestler. And then in his last win, he landed 108 sig strikes and five takedowns to beat Alex Morono.
If you let Price into a war, he can produce some volume and win, and he’s generally live for a finish.
Price isn’t very strong defensively though, and Chiesa is not the type to allow you into a war. I haven’t loved Price’s takedown defense recently, and he’s given up 9 takedowns in the last 11 attempts against him. He also gave up his back to Smith and was subbed.
So the path seems pretty clear for Chiesa, which is to disengage on the feet, crash the clinch, get a takedown, take the back and finish with a RNC. It’s also pretty possible he can follow that path and simply win by decision, as Price can be controlled on the mat.
Price is live to land a hard random shot, or I guess submit Chiesa if he jumps on a d’arce choke. He could win striking rounds. I don’t think any one outcome is particularly live but if he can defend takedowns, he’ll at least give himself a shot.
I’m not going to pick him to do that. I’ll take Chiesa to land takedowns without too much difficulty, take the back and probably get the finish.
—
On DraftKings, Chiesa is priced up to 9.5k which is pretty expensive, and I’m not sure I want to prioritize him this week.
While his path to victory is pretty clear and his path to a finish is clear at -190 ITD, Chiesa isn’t a fantastic DraftKings scorer. Chiesa only averages 90 DK points per win, and he rarely flashes a ceiling.
In fact, Chiesa has won ITD eight times, and he’s only reached 100 points twice, with a high of 102 DK points. His career high is 110 DK points which came in a decision to Diego Sanchez.
I guess the problem for Chiesa is that he doesn’t land enough sig strikes. He can land non-sig strikes but he’s inconsistent there too. If he wins by RD 1 sub, Chiesa is much more likely to score 98-105 than he is to score 110-120, and that’s an issue at this price.
The only positive for him is that he could see huge control here against Price, which is how he scored 110 against Sanchez. Price gave up 123 points in a decision to Gorimbo via takedowns and control, but Gorimbo did land 7 takedowns there while Chiesa has never reached that mark.
I think Chiesa is relatively safe this week, and I think he should score around 100 points. He can get there in a submission or in a decision. I suppose he has a path to a big ceiling too if he lands lots of takedowns, earns lots of control and decides to land a lot of ground strikes. He historically hasn’t shown the capability to do that and it also relies on his decision to attempt ground strikes.
Let me put it this way, if Stirling and Douglas are scoring round one KOs, I would rather have them at the cost. If not, Chiesa can very realistically contend for the optimal with a 100-105 type of score, and it’s fair to pay up for him on occasion for that purpose.
Price only costs 6.7k but I’m not very interested in him.
The upside is typically clear for Price and if he wins, I guess he can still smash. He averages 102 DK points per win which is really strong.
However, Chiesa allows only 8.4 DK points per minute via MMA Labs which is among the lowest on the slate. It’s not a good matchup for Price to score, and it puts more scenarios into play where if he was to win, it could be a random round two finish that scores 80 DK points.
Price is also only +650 to win ITD and is the biggest underdog on the slate.
If you want to use him as a dart throw, you can, but I’m not too excited by Price this week. I expect him to be one of, if not the lowest owned fighter this week and that’s probably correct.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chiesa by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas
Fight Odds: Douglas -350, Erosa +285
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Douglas 9k, Erosa 7.2k
Weight Class: 145
Coming off a brutal knockout win on the Contender Series, Lerryan Douglas will make his UFC debut on Saturday against veteran Julian Erosa.
This matchup is a fun one and somewhat intriguing considering Douglas has legit KO power, and Erosa historically has one of the worst chins in the featherweight division. We’ve seen Erosa knocked out cold numerous times, and the UFC is clearly hoping to add to that total.
Douglas is 13-5 professionally at age 30, and he’s earned seven wins by knockout and two by submission. He’s been fighting as a pro since 2013, and he trains out of the same camp as Cub Swanson and Danny Silva.
Douglas is primarily a kickboxer, and I consider him a fairly slick boxer with power in his hands. He landed a huge, clean shot against Cam Teague on DWCS to drop him badly, although it’s worth noting Teague is not very good and was also brutalized by Kevin Vallejos in his last DWCS attempt in 2024.
Prior to that, Douglas won by round two KO three times in a row, including against current UFC fighter Javier Reyes.
I am far from sold on Douglas as a prospect though. To me, he looks a little too dependent on power shots, and I don’t know how deep his game is. It’s not that he can’t keep up a decent striking rate, but he prefers to fight at a slower pace and throw single shots.
We’ve also seen him lose five times, including four times inside the distance. He’s been knocked out twice, as recently as 2023, and he’s been submitted a couple of times although they took place a while ago. One instance came against Chepe Mariscal in 2018.
I’ve seen limited footage of Douglas on the mat in recent years. His offensive and defensive wrestling looks OK, but I don’t think he is likely to employ an aggressive ground attack at the UFC level. If anything his defense could still be a liability.
Also, I’m skeptical about his ability to withstand pressure. His recent knockout loss was kind of weird in that he just cowered against the cage after a hard kick and got TKOd. And then in a recent fight against Ghareeb in 2024, he was kind of getting backed up against the cage and beat on a little bit. He ended up winning by KO in early round two.
I think Douglas is a solid athlete, with fight-ending power and decent boxing, but I have trouble seeing him as a consistent minute winner at the UFC level. I would like to see more though to make a firm read.
He’ll be taking on Julian Erosa who has been competing in the UFC since 2015. As I mentioned from the top, we’ve picked on Erosa for years for lacking durability, and I still worry about him every time he steps into the Octagon because he might get put out cold.
The thing is, Erosa is pretty decent otherwise, and that’s why he’s still here. He’s a high volume kickboxer, and lands 6.21 sig strikes per minute, absorbing 6.27 per minute with a 48 percent defensive rate. He gets hit too much but he can rack up volume.
He’s also a decent grappler, and he lands 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes. His defensive wrestling has looked bad recently, and he stuffs takedowns at 61 percent, but he’s a skillful submission grappler and can bail himself out.
Let me put it this way – Erosa just fought Melky Costa and lost a 29-28 decision. He was beaten in that fight but he still landed 69 sig strikes, three takedowns, and won the third round with pressure. Costa is ranked Number 12 in this division and you can sell me on the idea that the loss means more than any win Douglas has ever had.
Knockouts are super high-variance and hard to quantify, and I definitely think Douglas can knock Erosa out. How often does he knock him out is a much tougher question to answer.
On paper, Erosa fights at a much higher pace. He has a more diverse arsenal of strikes, and he’s better suited to fight late into rounds. He also is likely the better submission grappler. I am debating picking Erosa to win outright here.
The difference I suppose in comparison to Wood vs. Keita last week is that although Wood can be hurt, he’s durable. Erosa is not nearly as durable. I could realistically see him getting KOd dead in two minutes.
I also have seen enough question marks from Douglas defensively that I’m really unsure he wins rounds here at any consistent pace. Without a knockout, I’d probably just favor Erosa straight up or at least line the fight competitively.
Ultimately, I think Erosa has a real path to win. He can win rounds on striking pace, he has mild knockout equity, and possibly submission equity as well. I don’t trust him to wrestle with consistency but he’s surpassed my expectations there before, like against Hakeem Dawodu.
Douglas has the power and boxing pedigree to win moments, and win rounds via damage. He could win the fight at any moment and he’s live even after the first round. He could land takedowns although I don’t think it means much. Picking Douglas to win is fair but I feel the line is far too wide based on the round dynamics.
—
On DraftKings, Douglas is priced up to 9k and I think is largely dependent on an early round knockout to reach the optimal.
He’s not throwing enough volume that I’d be sure he contends for the optimal even with a round two knockout, which is concerning. Erosa has been knocked out in round one, in three of his past four losses though.
Douglas is -160 to win ITD so he’s going to rate out well enough, and based on chatter this week, the public has already penciled him in for the quick knockout, which isn’t a surprise. If he’s truly “very likely” to score the round one KO, he could be viewed as an outright priority at 9k.
I’m fine targeting him for upside and I think a round one knockout is in play, so I don’t want to dismiss that outcome. I just don’t consider it very safe though, and at best, is just a high-variance type of result.
There are a couple of fighters who I feel safer with in this range, in terms of them reaching a ceiling. But Douglas is a fine secondary target with real early finishing upside on paper, and he could realistically hit an early KO condition and score 100 or more on DK.
Erosa at 7.2k looks like a solid underdog option for the price tag.
Perhaps he’s not likely to win, but he’s one of the cheapest fighters on the slate, so I’m not asking much for him to cover his price. I really think he will cover it if he doesn’t get quickly KOd, and at that point, he could really just contend for the win.
There’s still a wide range of outcomes on Erosa’s scoring potential, but he historically has crushed in wins. He’s averaging 105 DK points per win, and Douglas has been finished multiple times by KO and by sub.
Erosa is +285 to win ITD which honestly isn’t too bad. I don’t think he must be a priority but I do think he’s a reasonable secondary target and price saver this week. He’s one of my favorite sneaky underdogs due to matchup pacing, but we should still cap our exposure given the lack of win equity on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Douglas by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Yousri Belgaroui
Fight Odds: Abdul-Malik -130, Belgaroui +110
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Abdul-Malik 8.2k, Belgaroui 8k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The next matchup is a tightly contested striker vs grappler matchup as Mansur Abdul-Malik takes a step up against credentialed striker Yousri Belgaroui. Let’s dive in.
Mansur Abdul-Malik made his debut on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2024, where he was able to outwork Wes Schultz on his way to a second round KO. Since that debut, he is 5-0*** in the UFC, with those asterisks coming due to his win against Cody Brundage being overturned to a draw after the fact.
He has finished all five of his opponents under the UFC banner and has maintained a 100% finish rate as a professional split amongst 7 KOs and 2 submissions, with all of them coming in the first two rounds.
Mansur is a physical specimen. He is absolutely shredded and utilizes that physicality inside the Octagon to land big power shots or blast doubles. He used to utilize his wrestling a lot more, as he has a D1 wrestling background and plenty of experience in that realm, but has since turned into more a striker due to his recent early stoppages on the feet. He actually only lands 0.94 TDs per 15 minutes and has only landed takedowns in 2/5 matchups, despite not really needing to.
The issue with relying on that power is although he is able to knock anyone’s lights out, he is lower volume and often really patient with his striking. He is averaging 4.18 strikes per minute but landed only one strike in round one against Nick Klein and landed only four strikes in round one against Cody Brundage. He is able to hit hard but figures to struggle in extended striking affairs or to win minutes if he can’t get them out of there.
He has also fought a low level of competition, as his opponents are a combined 12-23, and he has been -350 or higher in each one of his bouts, and -600 or better in his last four. Additionally, we have not seen the cardio of Mansur later into matchups and although he was able to out last Wes Schultz, I still wonder how he fares in the third round. I also think his chin is yet to be really tested. He is not being hit very often and was wobbled by Nick Klein in their matchup, although no one has been able to hurt him that badly yet.
Finally, I do want to add that although we haven’t seen it yet in the UFC, I think his ground-and-pound is maybe his best weapon. He is extremely powerful and those ground-and-pound finishes on the regional scene were deadly, something I look forward to seeing in the Octagon. Overall, Mansur Abdul-Malik is a heavy-handed athletic freak who will look to take your head off and has some wrestling in his back pocket, although he will be limited by a poor level of competition, low volume and questionable cardio and durability.
Yousri Belgaroui had a rough start to his UFC tenure, as he was unfortunately matched with now top middleweight prospect Marco Tulio on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2023. He was able to bounce back the following season with a third round knockout over Taiga Iwasaki, improving his MMA record to 9-3.
The first thing that will jump out about Belgaroui is his large frame for the division. He stands at 6’6” with a 79” reach and utilized that stature well in his pro kickboxing career, where he was a sharp lengthy striker. He held a kickboxing record of 27-7 and even held a win over Alex Pereira, although Pereira would get the last laugh, knocking him out twice after that and ending their series 2-1.
Now as a mixed martial artist, he isn’t without his flaws. He can be taken down and has actually lost by decision three times now, including the aforementioned loss to Tulio in which he was taken down twice and gave up six minutes of control time. That was a large reason why he was such a large underdog in his UFC debut, as he was a +275 underdog to Azamat Bekoev. Bekoev was able to take him down four times in that matchup but wasn’t able to have much success on the mat as Yousri worked his way up to the feet and out pointed him, en route to an early third round KO.
Belgaroui’s style is going to revolve largely around that kickboxing background. He manages range well, has solid power and good kicks and output from the outside. He has been taken down a few times in the UFC but still holds a 68% TDD and despite that time spent wrestling, still averages 5.82 strikes per minute. I do still think he can be taken down but looks to have made improvements in the takedown defense and get-up game, which is something to admire.
On the feet, the cardio is solid and he can kickbox for days. He can be walked down and hit in the clinch but his chin has held up so far in MMA, and although he was finished a few times in kickboxing, I’m not all too worried about his durability. Overall, Belgaroui is a solid lengthy kickboxer with great output and improving takedown defense, something that will most likely be tested going forward as fighters try to take him down and take advantage of lack of time inside the Octagon.
I do think this is a very close fight and one I am excited to see pan out. This is one of the first lines that I saw this week and one that had me a bit confused. I actually texted Brett, which I never do (He hates me and threatens to hold my family hostage when I can’t do the podcast. I am only useful to him for fantasy hockey advice.), and asked what he thought.
In my mind, pre-tape, Mansur Abdul-Malik was this big middleweight force who has demolished everyone in his path as a massive favorite. That part is sort of true, as he’s been a large favorite in all of them and gotten finishes in all his wins, but he has been extremely boom or bust and against poor competition, it isn’t always the best look. Sure you can KO Nick Klein violently and outlast Wes Schultz, but to get dropped by Klein before that, outwrestled by Schultz early on, and not land much volume in any fight, it does raise questions.
His style will remain a bit risky. Even in this matchup, if he doesn’t get the KO, standing and trading against Belgaroui will lead to him losing a volume based decision a lot of the time. But I do think that their core, this is a striker vs grappler matchup. Yes, Belgaroui will be the better striker and will outpoint Mansur from range, landing way more volume. But I know he has that wrestling in his back pocket and I’ve seen Belgaroui taken down and held down before.
Even on the feet, although you give the edge to Belgaroui, Mansur has legit power and can close the distance quickly. So I am going to give the slight edge to the wrestler here as I typically do. I think we see more urgency here, takedowns, top control and some of that vicious ground-and-pound we saw on the regional scene. Sure, he can be beaten on the feet as per all striker vs grappler matchups. But I do think the difference in the wrestling is larger than the difference in the striking. Give me Mansur to stay undefeated in this one.
—
On DraftKings, this is an important mid-range fight to dissect.
Gordo did reach out to me and after answering some hockey questions, we chatted about this matchup.
I’ll state my concerns plainly because I think the matchup dynamic is fairly obvious. I absolutely think Abdul-Malik can land takedowns and win, and he can win via power shots. Belgaroui is a much better distance striker and throws much more volume.
My concern is not whether Abdul-Malik can land takedowns, but will he attempt them? Will he attempt them persistently? I love to target wrestlers but Abdul-Malik has not proven to be a wrestler up to this point in the UFC.
Not only has only taken down two of five opponents, he’s only outwrestled one numerically, and he’s never landed two takedowns in a fight. He’s attempted four total takedowns in 22 minutes of action.
Furthermore, his patience has almost cost him fights. He was too slow out of the gate against Klein and almost got knocked out. He lost the round. He was outlanded by Wes Freaking Schultz 36 to 23 at distance. He was outlanded 29 to 18 by Cody Brundage at distance. He’s landed 5 or less strikes in round one on multiple occasions.
These are massive red flags, and Belagroui isn’t going to sit around and waste time. I still think once Abdul-Malik turns on the gas, he can find takedowns, land some ground-and-pound, and finish the fight. Or burst his way into a standing knockout. But I’ve only really heard people pick Abdul-Malik this week and the line is moving in the wrong direction. Belgaroui is a legit striker and very well may piece Abdul-Malik up for minutes unless Abdul-Malik is persistently chasing him down.
Abdul-Malik is priced at 8.2k and I think rates out as a strong, boom/bust secondary target. I simply cannot consider him safe, not when he’s chosen multiple times to produce zero offense in the first round of fights. Not when the line is a near pick’em.
When we wins, we generally know what it will look like. It will come with takedowns, GnP and/or damage on the feet. He’s a decent bet to win ITD and is +140 in that regard. He’s scored 95 or more in three of his last four wins.
He definitely provides a bust case though because of his lack of offensive production. The fight could EASILY extend and even with a late finish, Abdul-Malik isn’t a guarantee to smash. Fortunately he’s only 8.2k here and so 95 points probably gets the job done, but he also scored 88 in a second round KO against Klein.
My guess is Abdul-Malik will be pretty chalky given the name value and upside. And I still do like him in this matchup because unlike some other opponents, Belgaroui will bring the fight. It’s going to force Abdul-Malik to produce offense if he wants to win, and therefore the upside case is decent.
Ultimately, Abdul-Malik is a strong mid-range upside option. I’m not dying to take a stand on him and if he’s chalky, I could argue going in the opposite direction. But for ITD equity and wrestling potential, having moderate exposure around the field feels correct at this price.
Belgaroui at 8k is going to end up as a leverage target, I am guessing.
While he won in his UFC debut, I just don’t see the public attacking him in this spot more than they will Abdul-Malik.
It also makes sense as he lacks wrestling equity and is much more likely to win by decision. He is only +215 to win ITD and a striking based decision is very much in play. If he wins and scores 80 points, even if he kills off 35 percent of the field on Abdul-Malik, he might not be worth it.
I could also see him winning by knockout though. He’s tall and long and sharp, and if Abdul-Malik can’t close him down, he’s going to get hit a bunch. He’s going to get leg kicked. A mid-round stoppage is definitely in play.
For the leverage alone, I do like Belgaroui some. I am pretty nervous about this fight extending either way and I think Abdul-Malik has an easier upside case, but the binary matchup dynamic definitely gives Belgaroui some merit.
I honestly think the tier below Belgaroui is quite strong and it’s fair to prioritize a handful of those options for win equity and upside as well, so this fight isn’t as MUST TARGET as it might appear on paper, but especially if we get lower public ownerships, mixing in Belgaroui to be different makes sense.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Abdul-Malik by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson
Fight Odds: McKinney -170, Nelson +145
Odds to end ITD: -1400
DraftKings Salaries: McKinney 8.7k, Nelson 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It is always going to be chaos when Terrance McKinney fights. You can always expect violence. I expect no different in this matchup against Kyle Nelson this weekend.
McKinney is 17-8 professionally and 16 of his wins have come by first round finish. He comes from a wrestling background and is extremely dangerous early. He has power and has knocked several opponents dead. I don’t actually think McKinney is a very good striker as his defense is terrible, but he can clearly hurt anyone in the first couple of minutes.
McKinney also showed some ground skills against Fares Ziam and Erick Gonzalez by taking them down and quickly submitting them early. I actually think McKinney is a decent MMA wrestler. He took down and controlled Sean Woodson for the first round quite easily on the Contender Series. He recently finished Viacheslav Borshchev early by guillotine.
The issue with McKinney is that he has never thrived in extended fights. His wins have ended early and so have his losses. Usually if the fight gets extended past a round (honestly even like a few minutes) or so, he just slows down and is very fragile and gets finished. His cardio and durability are clear issues. He got finished in his last matchup against Chris Duncan after having early success.
I think we can reliably expect McKinney to be dangerous early in fights standing or on the mat. He can definitely threaten with big shots on the feet or a grappling / submission storm. I just do not trust this guy when he faces adversity though. He is a good hammer but a terrible nail. We know the drill with McKinney.
McKinney will be taking on Kyle Nelson. I have never been high on Kyle Nelson but honestly he has done fine and has racked up a decent amount of wins against the low tiers of this division, and has exceeded some of my expectations in a way. He has sneakily won four of his last five with his only loss being against Steve Garcia.
Nelson’s striking ratios are not great. He lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.48 in return. He isn’t very great on the feet when fights get extended. He is never really going to win clean rounds. I do think he at least showed some improvement in his last few fights though and he won striking based decisions against Matt Frevola and Fernando Padilla.
I do think Nelson has some power. He has some decent hands especially early in fights, and he is capable of hurting opponents. He knocked out Polo Reyes and hurt Diego Ferreira badly. He also hurt several fighters on the regionals. He recently knocked out Bill Algeo but it was probably an early stoppage. He also recently hurt Matt Frevola and it should have been ruled a knockout.
I mostly can’t expect Nelson to win fights on the feet at this level unless he lands KOs, or if he fights people who will not throw volume.
Nelson is a decently tough guy who has only been put away with strikes on the feet twice. Once was in the third round against Billy Q and then against Steve Garcia so I don’t think those outcomes are a major knock on his durability. He hasn’t given up soft KOs ever really. His other KO loss was from ground-and-pound to Ferreira. So I do think Nelson can stay tough in fights.
Nelson does have okay wrestling in his game. He landed 2 takedowns against Sayles (who is a terrible grappler) and had success. He landed 5 takedowns againstDSooho Choi. He also had success on the regionals with grappling at times. He can kind of land takedowns and threaten with back takes using his physicality. He also attempts 6 takedowns per 15 minutes so he does choose to grapple semi-often. I still don’t think he is a good grappler though and doubt he can do much damage with it in the UFC.
Nelson defends takedowns at 66 percent. I think he is okay with his defensive wrestling because of his physicality. However, he still isn’t great on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, this is just another classic McKinney fight. McKinney very well may go out there and finish Nelson. McKinney is dangerous and I could even see McKinney having early grappling success and finishing Nelson on the mat. So McKinney winning wouldn’t be shocking.
However, McKinney is very likely going to lose if he doesn’t get an early finish. Nelson is way more proven as an extended striker and I think Nelson would beat McKinney up and eventually finish him if this goes past a round.
I also think Nelson is sneaky tough. He doesn’t get finished early often so I sort of think Nelson is the value side here. Furthermore, even though McKinney is dangerous, Nelson is pretty dangerous too. If they swing and both go crazy early, McKinney may not even win that battle. And McKinney certainly will not win in an extended fight.
So I am going to go with Nelson here. I think Nelson probably survives a little more often than not and gets a finish. I think Nelson should be slightly favored.
—
On DraftKings, this fight will be the marquee matchup for most.
The fight is lined -1400 to end inside the distance, and -250 to end in less than 1.5 rounds. In 13 UFC/DWCS fights we’ve seen from McKinney, only three have hit round two and none have hit round three.
Obviously that correlates well to DraftKings upside. McKinney is -160 to win ITD here and will be chalk. He is averaging 115 DK points per win over seven wins, only failing to score 100 points one time.
Priced at 8.7k, I suppose there’s some mild concern with McKinney only scoring 95-105, which he has done a few times. But if you get 102 from McKinney, he’s going to give you a real solid shot to be optimal, and his ceiling is much higher than that.
McKinney was 42 percent owned last time he fought, 38 percent owned prior to that, and 54 percent prior to that. I’m guessing he will fall into the 40 percent range this week, but you could argue it’s still not enough.
His wins are so correlated to early finishes and 100 points, that with a -160 ITD line, he’ll be projected to score 100 points more than 60 percent of the time. Conversely, Nelson is tough and we know McKinney’s window of hitting is super thin, so perhaps these odds are not correct.
As much as I’d like to take a stand here, it’s not really worth it. McKinney will have the best win expectation on the slate at cost, and he’s worthy of being chalk for that reason. I’ll likely end up with moderate or heavy exposure, depending on how often I decide to target Nelson.
Nelson is priced at 7.5k and is one of the best underdogs on the slate.
Despite McKinney’s kill or be killed style, his opponents are typically undervalued. Duncan was only 22 percent owned, Borshchev was 23 percent owned, and Ribovics was 28 percent owned.
Yet when he loses, McKinney’s opponents are typically optimal. He is giving up 105 points on average to his opponents, with varying results from 82, 88, 100, 110, 125 and 127.
We’ll see where Nelson lands on ownership, but high 20s or low 30s is my expectation. With Pyfer, Yanez, and O’Neill above him, there are others to soak up ownership in this range.
Nelson is +160 to win ITD which is a super strong line for the price, and telling considering he’s only +145 to win the fight. Tim picked him to win and it’s easy to make the case considering Nelson is tough and likely has a huge advantage if the fight extends.
To me, Nelson is essentially the best underdog this week. He’s a solid price point at 7.5k, and highly correlated to finishing equity and a 100 point score. He’s also going to be among the best leverage targets against McKinney who will be chalk. It seems easy.
I’ll probably aim to be overweight to Nelson assuming he is 30 percent owned or so, and that doesn’t necessarily have to limit you to McKinney. There are still ways this could go wrong but historically McKinney fights crush, and this is the most likely fight to end in round one according to the odds.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nelson by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev
Fight Odds: Bahamondes -280, Musayev +240
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Bahamondes 9.2k, Musayev 7k
Weight Class: 155
We should have a fun fight here between strikers Ignacio Bahamondes and Tofiq Musayev.
Musayev made his UFC debut last June and was submitted in the first round by Myktybek Orolbai, which honestly isn’t the worst look considering how highly most think of Orolbai at this moment.
Musayev had a long career prior to coming into the UFC, and he’s currently 22-6 professionally at age 36, earning 18 wins by knockout and two by submission. He fought eight times in RIZIN and a couple of times in Bellator as well.
He comes from a striking background and has competed in a lot of traditional martial arts. He’s fairly technical, can move efficiently on his feet and has fight-ending power.
Musayev isn’t the biggest volume threat which is a concern of mine, and that relates to the fact that 18 of his 22 pro wins have come by knockout. He wants to blitz in and do some damage. He’s actually won two of three fights that have gone the distance but those come few and far between.
Musayev is a solid defensive striker and isn’t a huge knockout liability. He’s only been knocked out once, but it came from a body strike that was questionably a groin strike.
I do think Musayev can win fights at the UFC level, but it’s likely to come with damage or bigger moments. I don’t think he’ll be in a ton of wild fights and he may lose minutes, but he’s a decent technical striker.
On the mat, Musayev has some issues. He’s been submitted four times, including in his last bout against Orolbai, which came by kimora. To be fair, two of the four submission losses came in 2013-14.
Orolbai did take him down three times on five attempts, but it’s hard to hold that against Musayev considering Orolbai just took Chris Curtis down 19 times in his most recent bout.
There wasn’t a huge sample of Musyaev on the ground prior to this. His takedown defense has looked fine in spots and he can scramble back to his feet. I don’t think he’s going to have any offensive wrestling success and he might be a defensive liability to a degree, but I’d be more concerned when he’s fighting someone of a high caliber like Orolbai.
He’ll be taking on Ignacio Bahamondes next, who I mostly consider a high paced striker.
Bahamondes is super tall and long for the division, standing 6’3” tall with a 75 inch reach. He lands 6.55 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 4.33 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.
Bahamondes is a pretty solid round winner due to his volume and he has knockout ability as well. He’s knocked down four of his last 10 opponents.
He is coming off a loss to Rafael Fiziev, which gives me a lot of pause. Although Fiziev was able to wrestle and have success, there does seem to be a trend here where Bahamondes is getting outclassed by smaller, more technical kickboxers.
His three losses in the UFC have come to Fiziev, Ludovit Klein and John Makdessi, each of whom outstruck him numerically. He’s kind of running through weaker opponents on the feet like Trey Ogden, Roosevelt Roberts, Christos Giagos, etc.
Bahamondes is still multi-dimensional. He submitted Jalin Turner in 2025 with a triangle from his back, but that’s a tough outcome to bet on. Bahamondes has not landed a takedown in the UFC thus far and is 0/8 on his attempts.
I think Bahamondes is fairly skillful, and his length, volume and athleticism will keep him around for a long time. He can win rounds with pace and win by knockout, and he’s usually going to fight competitively.
I do worry that he’ll continue to succumb to more technical opponents, especially those who can also mix in some takedowns.
This is an interesting matchup because on the feet, Musayev falls much closer to the Fiziev/Klein category than he does a Roosevelt Roberts. I think there’s a reasonable chance that Musayev can slow this fight down, and pick at Bahamondes from distance, landing the occasional hard shot.
The problem is Bahamondes is very durable, and if Musayev isn’t landing huge power shots, Bahamondes is still likely to throw enough to get ahead on the scorecards. Plus, Musayev isn’t likely to take him down.
I wonder if Bahamondes is going to have any wrestling success here, and if he can, that would certainly push the tide in his favor. I wouldn’t rule it out as he has attempted takedowns in the past, and obviously Musayev looked weak on the mat in his UFC debut. It’s hard to quantify though considering Bahamondes has never been successful wrestling and is obviously a major step down from the level of Orolbai.
I have to lean toward Bahamondes overall. He’s six inches taller with a six inch reach advantage, and he throws way more volume. He’s also eight years younger.
But Musayev has been very durable historically, and so I’m not convinced Bahamondes easily kills him. If we see an extended fight, I do worry that it could be down in pace from a standard Bahamondes fight, which would therefore put Musayev live to win some competitive rounds. I give some upside to Bahamondes on the mat as well but again, it’s hard to quantify.
I’ll take Bahamondes to win a semi-competitive decision.
—
On DraftKings, I’m not super interested in Bahamondes given the matchup analysis provided above.
I am really fearful that we see a slower paced, extended affair here, in which case, Bahamondes is not likely to be optimal at 9.2k.
Even though he lands a lot of volume historically, 100 significant strikes is not going to cut it. One additional takedown isn’t going to cut it. We most likely need a finish.
Bahamondes is -120 to win ITD which is honestly giving him a lot of respect considering how durable Musayev has been historically. I kind of think Bahamondes to win by sub is sneaky, since that’s how Musayev has fallen before, and perhaps that’s where a wider gap is between their respective skill sets.
If I’m playing Bahamondes, I’m honestly hoping he decides to grapple, has success, and finds an early sub. It’s at least in play considering he’s attempted takedowns in the past. But it’s so hard to rely on.
If we’re purely relying on a round 1 KO from Bahamondes, that feels like a risk I don’t want to take on.
At 9.2k, Bahamondes rates out OK for finishing equity but I consider him more of a contrarian target, or secondary option at best. I’m unsure if he’ll be popular but I lean toward others in this range getting more ownership than him.
At a low public ownership, I’d be OK using Bahamondes as a differentiator. But my purely gut instinct is to get away from him and prioritize others in this range who I feel have easier paths to domination.
Musayev is priced at 7k and is somewhat sneaky, but probably not a priority.
Musayev is just too reliant on the knockout that it’s hard to play much of him in this kind of matchup. I don’t think he will land a ton of volume or wrestle much. A competitive decision is on the table but I’m not certain that scores well.
Musayev is +400 to win ITD which isn’t particularly strong. He will be very low owned though, especially coming off the UFC debut loss.
My gut feeling is that the line is too wide here, and so if you want a pure contrarian target who is a fine technical striker, I think Musayev is in play. I am just less high on him from a ceiling standpoint, which ultimately will limit my exposure to him.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bahamondes by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr.
Fight Odds: Hooper -265, Gibson +225
Odds to end ITD: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Hooper 8.9k, Gibson 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues as Chase Hooper looks to get back on track against Lance Gibson Jr. Let’s dive in.
Chase “The Dream” Hooper has had some ups and downs so far in his UFC career, but remains a solid young prospect at 155. He made his debut on the Contender Series at 18 years old at featherweight, and ended up earning a contract despite being dropped early on.
Since then, he has fought 12 times inside the Octagon, earning an 8-4 record and putting on some impressive grappling performances. Now at 26, he is growing into his frame and looking to improve some aspects of his game that have held him back before.
In his wins, Hooper has been dominant. Six of his eight wins come by finish and he has showcased that elite grappling time and time again. The issue for Hooper though is although he has incredible grappling, he doesn’t necessarily have the wrestling to get it there, or the striking to set up the takedowns.
In fact, putting it nicely, he is a walking punching bag on the feet a lot of the time, defending strikes at 39%. He does have a decent chin if I’m honest, for the amount of strikes he’s absorbing, but he is walking clean onto punches and big power hitters such as Steve Garcia and Alexander Hernandez have been able to get him out of there.
His wrestling has been improving, but it is still not great. He is averaging 2.49 TDs per 15 minutes with a 33% accuracy. The best part of his wrestling is the pace he brings with it, often attempting plenty at a time, and I truly think that one of Hooper’s best assets is his volume and cardio. He can push a very heavy grappling pace, is always hunting for submissions and is also dealing plenty of damage on the mat while looking for finishes.
He landed 217 strikes against Nick Fiore in a fight that had eight and a half minutes of control time, he landed 129 strikes against Borschev in a fight that he won in eight minutes, and he landed 140 strikes against Felipe Colares where he broke him in his third round victory. Anytime the fight is on the mat, he has great activity and will do whatever it takes to get people out of there, it’s just that if he cannot get it to the mat, he will struggle with striking defense from range, and although he will push forward looking for takedowns, he often puts himself in harm’s way doing so.
Overall, Hooper is already an experienced UFC fighter at 26 who has the ground game to get anyone out of there and a pace that can break you down the stretch. However, I hope he is able to improve his wrestling and striking defense to take advantage of such pace, pressure and skill that he does possess the mat.
Lance Gibson Jr. made his UFC debut last December against King Green, ultimately losing a three round decision. The Canadian fighter now sits at 9-2 and is looking for his first UFC win after having most of his career in Bellator.
His dad was a UFC fighter back in the year 2000 so he looks to follow in his footsteps and get a win in the Octagon. He took the slower route to do so, now being 31 years old and having only 11 pro fights despite being a pro for nine years. These fights are coming against a lower level of competition so I still have plenty of questions about his defensive game and cardio.
I mean, his last few wins are against guys who aren’t even worth me naming. His last three wins are over a guy who is now 5-7, someone who’s now 22-51 and someone who’s 15-13. However, he is handling them accordingly, with a 78% finish rate split amongst 4 KO’s and 3 submissions.
I would call Gibson a well-rounded fighter. He chooses to fight technically, being a patient striker waiting for his chance to strike at distance. He has decent kicks and solid power in his hands, but they are all coming with less output and in his sole UC fight with Bobby Green, he averaged just 2 strikes per minute and was out struck 65 to 30. That lack of output can have him lose minutes and he is someone who often relies on moments to win fights.
He also has solid wrestling. He is very physically sound and if he is able to lock his hands together, he can often lift you and slam you. He took down Green twice and we have seen him take the back and threaten submissions, however he is yet to face a truly dangerous grappler and was even taken down by Green, although I think that was more due the element of surprise.
We also saw him knocked out in his only loss before the UFC so the chin is also something to keep an eye on. The cardio is something I also want to see tested as we have seen him win decisions but none that were fought at too hectic of a pace, as he is often taking his time in striking and wrestling positions.
Overall, Gibson is a well-rounded fighter who can compete in all areas but still has plenty of questions about his game. He does have decent power and wrestling but has yet to be tested in a higher paced brawl, is low output, will struggle to win minutes and was KO’d in his only loss outside of the UFC. He is capable of landing big shots, getting high amplitude takedowns and winning moments, but I would like to see more activity and proven cardio/durability before trusting him at too high of a clip.
I do think Hooper is deserving of being a moderate sized favorite in this matchup. He is the more experienced fighter, which is funny considering his age, and someone who will have a clear pace and ground advantage should it get there. The reason I favor Hooper is not only because of the edge on the mat, but because he will also have a clear advantage in the striking volume and optics on the feet, and I’m not sure Gibson can keep up with him for 15 minutes.
Sure, Gibson has power and he can knock out Hooper. That is a possibility. But if he doesn’t, Hooper is going to march forward, throw volume, spam takedowns and I think it’s only a matter of time before Hooper gets a takedown and is able to submit Gibson, or Gibson tires out and gets finished down the stretch. Maybe I’m not giving Gibson enough credit and he can utilize his wrestling and physicality to keep this fight upright, but I have not seen proven cardio or high enough paced fights to trust Gibson to be able to keep up with Hooper or defend takedowns for 15 minutes.
At least in his losses, Hooper is either being hurt by big power threats, or his opponents can match his pace and volume on the feet and defend takedowns over a long period of time, things I just haven’t seen yet from the Canadian. So give me Hooper to get back on track here and I think although Gibson can defend takedowns early, I think he is overwhelmed and just outmatched in the grappling once it gets there.
—
On DraftKings, I’m always somewhat interested in Hooper fights.
The downside is basically what we saw from Hooper in his last fight. He isn’t physical enough to implement his wrestling, and he can be a sitting duck on the feet. You typically feel horrible every time you have money on Hooper.
What it really comes down to is when Hooper can wrestle successfully, he can crush. He throws ground-and-pound at a high rate, and he can finish fights. If he’s not grappling, I have essentially zero interest in him and he is a decent bet to lose.
In this matchup, I do think Hooper can have grappling success but I’m not super confident about it. Gibson is a decent wrestler, and could easily defend early or even take Hooper down. However, I have seen a couple instances of Gibson on his back that concern me, and I believe Hooper can turn a takedown into a back take and a potential submission.
At 8.9k, I like Hooper as an upside option. He obviously isn’t safe, and Gibson will try to slow the fight down. If Hooper wins though, it probably will come in part on the mat and a finish is live.
Hooper is averaging 110 DK points per win which is fantastic, and it’s possible we see lower ownerships on him here after an ugly loss last time out. He’s also +110 to win ITD which is pretty decent.
You don’t have to choose Hooper as your top target within this range, but I do think he’s a strong secondary option at least, and a very viable upside play. I wouldn’t mind coming in overweight if the field is scared off.
Gibson is priced at 7.3k and is somewhat viable.
Hooper just has no defense. He’s defending strikes at 39 percent and he’s defending takedowns at 55 percent. If Gibson wins, a knockdown could be in play, or some wrestling. I really don’t think he can do anything with takedowns but he could land a couple.
Hooper is allowing 102 DK points on average to his opponents when he loses, essentially because of the defensive issues. I don’t really think Gibson has the game to make him pay, but it’s not a terrible idea to be in on this fight as a whole considering the typical outcome of Hooper fights.
Gibson is only +375 to win ITD, and I only consider him a low-end option. He does have some viability in that regard and for savings, and I wouldn’t mind a small sprinkle of exposure.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hooper by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune
Fight Odds: Fortune -138, Tybura +118
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Fortune 8.3k, Tybura 7.9k
Weight Class: HW
Former Bellator HW prospect, Tyrell Fortune will make his UFC debut on Saturday against Marcin Tybura.
Fortune is 17-3 professionally at age 35, and he’s earned 11 wins by knockout and one by submission.
Fortune was a NAIA All-American wrestler at Grand Canyon before turning pro in 2016. He made his pro debut in Bellator and won his first seven fights before getting knocked out by ex-UFC fighter Timothy Johnson.
He then picked up another few wins before losing a split decision to Linton Vassell in 2021. After another few fights, Fortune made his way to PFL where he beat Marcelo Golm, and then got heel hooked by Bilostenniy in the playoffs. Most recently, he’s been fighting some veterans in LFX.
Coming from the wrestling base, Fortune is best when he has a real grappling advantage. He has solid takedowns, and solid ground-and-pound. With only one submission on his record, he’s not a very dangerous finishing threat with anything but his hands.
On the feet, Fortune is a fine boxer but nothing special. He does well in bursts and carries power, and he can work OK from the clinch and in the pocket. I still think he’s pretty limited as a fighter.
We’ve seen Fortune hurt a handful of times, knocked out multiple times (unofficially), and he’s been submitted too.
What I find most concerning is how bad his submission grappling looks. I’ve seen him land takedowns, and then immediately get reversed and give up his back where he doesn’t know what to do. It drastically limits his upside because he’s wrestling dependent but can’t really capitalize on it.
I do like his speed and power enough to give him a shot on the feet, but his durability is kind of questionable. He’s also had some weird wins like against Matt Mitrione where he clashed heads before finishing the fight with strikes.
Fortune is a fine HW but I really only want to bet on him when he’s facing an opponent who he can easily take down and smash.
His debut opponent is Marcin Tybura, a veteran of the division who I’ve written up probably 15 times.
Tybura is a well-rounded fighter. He’s a solid kickboxer and a solid grappler. He lands 3.59 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.33 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate.
Tybura is pretty capable of winning striking rounds, but his big issue is durability. He’s been knocked out several times in the UFC and I’ve bet against him in the past for this reason. Knockouts are so high variance though – he was knocked out three times in 2018-19 and then won seven of his next eight.
We have seen him KOd again recently though, by Tom Aspinall and last time out against Ante Delija. Both are huge hitters obviously so it makes sense, but it’s still not great to see.
Tybura also lands 1.38 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a quality wrestler and grappler, where he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He’s hard to outgrapple. We bet on him as a big dog against Alexandr Romanov who did take him down a couple of times, but Tybura was able to outlast him over the distance.
Tybura defends takedowns at 75 percent which is solid, but more importantly, his ground game is decent and he won’t get easily finished once the fight hits the mat.
I can see a case for picking both fighters here. Fortune is a good enough wrestler to be able to land some takedowns, and Tybura did get taken down recently by Mick Parkin where he looked kind of poor from his back.
I don’t think Tybura necessarily dominates the fight on the ground, but he could land a couple of takedowns and land some ground-and-pound, or control the fight and win a couple of rounds. He also has some random KO upside if he rushes in at Tybura and catches him at the right moment.
I think Tybura is probably the more consistent striker though, and the better kicker. And he’s more experienced at the highest level. I could easily see him edging out multiple striking rounds, and Fortune isn’t the most durable guy either.
Additionally, Fortune looks pretty terrible on his back. I wouldn’t project Tybura for much ground success but he’s a way better submission grappler than Fortune. If he happens to get on top, he could potentially take the back and finish the fight.
My guess is Fortune is fast enough to have some early moments of success. If it doesn’t translate into a finish, I’m not particularly confident in him winning latter rounds. The fight is probably going to be competitive without a finish anyways, and I’m not certain it will be exciting.
—
On DraftKings, this feels like a boom or bust mid-range HW matchup.
Fortune is priced at 8.3k, and my expectation is that he needs an early finish. While he can get there in a decision via takedowns, I’m not super convinced he can land enough of them, and do enough work on top to really hit a ceiling.
My fear here would be that he lands 2-3 takedowns, earns like five minutes of control and scores 80 something points in a decision. What I’d really like from him is an early KO, either standing or via ground-and-pound.
It’s not impossible. Most of his wins come by knockout and Tybura has durability issues. Fortune is +105 to win ITD which is pretty strong for this price.
I think that puts him firmly in play as a secondary option.
I personally don’t think I want to attack this spot though. I just see a lot of ways for it to go wrong. Fortune really isn’t a knockout artist and a lot of his wins have come against bums. We haven’t seen Bellator guys come into the UFC and have the greatest success.
I’m still willing to target Fortune as a secondary option but I’d only aim to match the field or come in a bit underweight, as I think he could easily lose here, or see an extended fight that kills off his ceiling.
Tybura is priced at 7.9k and I’m not dying to target him either.
I do think he could land takedowns, but I’m not even sure he will want to, and domination still won’t come easily. He’s not really a knockout artist either.
Fortune gets hurt a decent amount of the time but Tybura has one knockdown in the UFC in 23 bouts. Maybe a late round, ground based finish is more likely if Fortune gets tired.
Tybura is +185 to win ITD here which is pretty solid for the price. He’s in secondary consideration as well because of it. I just see the fight lined near a pick’em on 1.5 rounds and I think it could easily go over that, and go the full 15 minute distance.
Ultimately it’s why I consider this a very boom/bust spot. Odds indicate the chances of a finish are high enough to take stabs on both fights, and primarily Fortune for the early finishing equity. My gut lean is that we see an extended and competitive fight so I’m probably just avoiding a real stand and aiming for this fight not to kill me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fortune by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Casey O’Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes
Fight Odds: Fernandes -110, O’Neill -110
Odds to end ITD: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Fernandes 8.4k, O’Neill 7.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here between Casey O’Neill and Gabriella Fernandes.
We haven’t seen O’Neill compete since August of 2024 where we actually cashed on her as a moderately sized underdog against Luana Santos. Prior to that fight, O’Neill had two losses in a row to Jennifer Maia and Ariane Lipski.
I actually don’t mind O’Neill. She fights at a super hard pace whether she is striking or grappling.
I think O’Neill is best as a grappler, especially when she is in top position. She lands 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t consider her takedowns all that good, but she is tenacious and can use her size and pace to eventually land takedowns. O’Neill is best in top position. She can absolutely brutalize opponents with ground-and-pound, pass their guard, and threaten to finish fights. She finished her first three UFC opponents on the mat.
O’Neill isn’t a bad striker. She landed 229 and 137 significant strikes against Modafferi and Maia so she has a TON of volume, so she can remain competitive on the feet vs a lot of girls. She also outstruck Santos 83-41 in significant strikes.
The issue is that O’Neill isn’t the most technical striker, doesn’t have much defense, and she doesn’t have a ton of power behind her strikes. So her striking fights just get a little sloppy and I don’t fully trust her standing. She got absolutely schooled and hurt often against Lipski because Lipski was a little too technical and fast for her.
Still though, O’Neill has a great pace and if she can find top position and get back to her grappling roots, she will continue to have success in this division. She defends takedowns at 70 percent and can be taken down, but she generally can scramble up. It was a bad look that she got submitted by Lipski in her last loss, but she was badly hurt before it happened so I will give her a bit of a pass.
O’Neill will be taking on Gabriella Fernandes who has won three fights in a row, including a huge upset against Wang Cong in a fight she was losing until she finished Cong via club-and-sub.
Fernandes has had two losses against Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bleda. She was taken down 3 and 4 times against Jasmine and Bleda and basically held down the entire fights and lost decisions. I was extremely skeptical of Fernandes’ TDD and defensive wrestling before her UFC debut, and bet against Fernandes in both of those fights so I was not surprised by those outcomes. Her takedown defense is suspect and she will continue to get outgrappled in the UFC.
Fernandes is a striker. She is pretty physical and a decent athlete. She can land decently hard shots. Standing out of the southpaw stance, she always makes use of her rear kick, usually throwing it to the body. She has decent hands as well. She can use range control and can strike going forward and backward. I still don’t think she is a world beater standing and has suspect defense, but she has some power and technical striking.
Basically, I think Fernandes can win some striking fights in the UFC, but she will be outgrappled badly in other matchups. That is about it. Her game is pretty easy to break down.
If this fight stays standing, I think Fernandes will win. She is the more technical striker and hits harder. Although O’Neill can compete on volume, I think Fernandes will land the bigger shots and maybe even hurt O’Neill.
This fight all comes down to the TDD of Fernandes and whether O’Neill chooses to wrestle. Fernandes defends takedowns at 68 percent. I actually do not think her first layer takedown defense is bad. She is physical and has some basic understanding of defending takedowns.
However, Fernandes struggles with tenacity and chain wrestling, and her get-ups are non-existent. I honestly think if Fernandes gets taken down here vs O’Neill she will remain on her back the entire round.
Gosh man, O’Neill could dominate here. I just don’t think her wrestling is that great though. She also may not commit to it. We have seen O’Neill look to strike for entire fights before and only attempts 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. If you told me O’Neill was psychotically chasing takedowns here, I would be playing her. However, I just don’t want to be in a situation where I bet O’Neill and she just decides to strike for an entire round with an occasional half ass takedown attempt. So I will be passing on a bet on O’Neill.
I still will be picking O’Neill. She just needs one takedown to win a very clean round. She may just not wrestle enough though.
—
On DraftKings, I’m moderately interested in this matchup for pacing purposes.
The line is trending toward a pick’em so we may see O’Neill be the value side at 7.8k, compared to 8.4k for Fernandes.
There’s no denying O’Neill has the superior upside as well. She is averaging 115 DK points per win, and although her last result was mediocre at 73 points, her previous wins scored 121, 131, 109 and 139.
The thing is, she could easily be a trap. Her wrestling is bad, and she couldn’t even take down Roxanne Modafferi. She’s made a career out of whooping terrible grapplers, but it’s clear her wrestling isn’t up to par and therefore will cap her UFC ceiling.
I still think this is a spot you can invest in. While Fernandes rates out as the better striker in my mind and might just win, we should see a super high pace here. Fernandes has already given up 169 sig strikes and 2 takedowns to Carli Judice, which is the kind of fight O’Neill would excel in.
Fernandes isn’t an awful grappler, but she’s just bad enough that if O’Neill gets on top of her, I could see dominant rounds and tons of DK points being scored. It’s really tough to bet on, but for the upside, I’m fine targeting O’Neill.
At 7.8k, O’Neill is just a solid secondary option. She’s only +475 to win ITD and I don’t consider her safe, but she has a path to big numbers if she can get on top once or twice.
Fernandes is priced at 8.4k and she’s more of a contrarian option.
She might possibly gain some ownership, but with the betting line trending against her, it doesn’t seem like she’ll carry too much at her price tag. There’s also some other obvious options like Adesanya, Abdul-Malik and Fortune in this range who will attract attention.
Fernandes is also coming off a 53 point win, and there’s much less of a guarantee of an optimal result if Fernandes wins.
So in that sense, Fernandes is pretty risky here. She likely won’t wrestle. She’s only +275 to win ITD. You might be betting on a knockout.
I do still kind of like her to be honest. We have already seen O’Neill absorb 145 and 120 sig strikes in three round fights, and that doesn’t include the matchup against Lipski where she was hurt and finished.
Fernandes is a physical fighter and a decent striker. This could turn into a striking brawl, and I think she has mild knockdown equity. Fernandes scored 93 DK points in that win over Judice and she could possibly squeak into the 90s here. It doesn’t seem like a great spot to go heavy on, but if we get lower ownerships here, I don’t mind this as a differentiator due to pacing.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fernandes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Navajo Stirling vs. Bruno Lopes
Fight Odds: Stirling -650, Lopes +475
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Stirling 9.4k, Lopes 6.8k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues as the surging Navajo Stirling takes on Bruno Lopes in a fight that should deliver fireworks for as long as it lasts. Let’s dive in.
Navajo Stirling made his UFC debut on Dana White’s Contender Series back in September of 2024, with a second round KO of Phillip Latu. At that point, he was a 5-0 prospect with 4 of 5 wins coming by way of knockout. Since then, he has 3 wins inside the UFC Octagon against Rodolfo Bellato, Ivan Erslan and Tuco Tokkos, all of which came by unanimous decision. He has utilized his distance striking to land big shots from range, averaging 6.13 strikes per minute at a 52% striking accuracy.
Stirling is a City Kickboxing fighter with great technical striking and ability to fight from range, while also defending strikes at 58%, showing his offensive and defensive prowess. He can be hit but has shown solid durability so far inside the Octagon as well as cardio to have striking success down the stretch. He also has a solid frame for the division, standing at 6’4” with a 79” reach, which aids him in distance exchanges.
The largest red flag with City Kickboxing prospects though is typically the takedown defense. We saw Stirling taken down and controlled for over three and a half minutes by Tuco Tokkos, as well as taken down twice by Rodolfo Bellato. Despite this, Tokkos went 3/9 and Bellato went 2/6 and Stirling’s TDD sits at 75%, showing that he is able to fend off multiple attempts and although he isn’t perfect, he is capable to defending a shot and working his way back to the feet if needed.
We also saw him wrestle offensively where needed, averaging 1.15 TDs per 15 minutes and although that is certainly not his forte, it is nice to see him round out his game.
While we have not seen Stirling put anyone out yet in the UFC, we do know he has power as he was able to drop Erslan as well as hurt Tokkos a couple times, he just didn’t show the aggression or ability to get the finish in those spots. Although the technique and power is there, the finishing instinct is something I want to see improved, however I have confidence the KOs will come, considering his fighting style.
Overall, Stirling projects as a solid prospect with great output, solid durability and the ability to wrestle offensively if needed to as well, but has been taken down and I would like to continue to see the TDD improved as well as more finishing instinct out of the City Kickboxing prospect.
Bruno Lopes has had a rough start inside the Octagon as he dropped his first Dana White’s Contender Series bout as a large favorite to Brendson Ribeiro by first round KO. He was able to rebound with a win over Mikheil Sazhiniani in August of 2024 and earn his way into the UFC.
He was then a +240 underdog in his debut against Magomed Gazhiyasulov and was able to wrestle his way to a decision victory. He last fought against Dustin Jacoby in May of 2025, where he was knocked out in the first round.
The issue for Lopes seems to be his durability, as he now sits at a record of 14-2 with both his losses coming by way of knockout. His last loss was the most concerning, as it was a jab that wobbled him and didn’t look to be too heavy, but was enough to damage him and lead to the finish. Ribeiro also KO’d him pretty badly and even Sazhiniani dropped him in the first round, although he was able to rally back.
At his core, Lopes is a solid minute winner. He has shown the ability to win decisions, largely through his wrestling, and it was that style that helped him beat Gadzhiyasulov, landing 5 takedowns and accumulating more than nine minutes of control time. He is averaging 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 33% accuracy, and does his best work inside the clinch to get the takedowns.
His jiu-jitsu isn’t bad as he has a good ability to take the back for his size, and has five wins via submission. He also has decent power in his striking with six KO wins, putting his finish rate at 79% overall. However, if he isn’t able to take damage coming back his way, it’ll be tough to trust him to get off on his style.
His striking isn’t horrible, but he is only landing 2.81 strikes per minute and if he is not able to take damage it’s hard to trust him to win striking optics at a high clip, despite him having decent striking technique. Overall, Lopes rates out as a fine wrestler with decent offensive jiu-jitsu and ability to control people on the mat, but will be limited by his lack of durability or proven ability to fight through adversity, despite decent striking optics.
I do think this is a tough matchup for Lopes. The truth with him is he is always at risk of just being KO’d at any point on the feet and I am not a fan of his durability or lack thereof. But he is a pretty physical wrestler and in the fights he isn’t absorbing damage, he can look pretty dominant from top position. I just think it’ll be tough in this matchup.
Although Stirling can be taken down and we have seen him controlled before, he has shown a decent initial layer of takedown defense and Lopes is going to have to close the distance to be able to have most of his success. Stirling is going to be a much better striker from range and has been pretty accurate in his distance striking, which I think will be enough to find the chin. Stirling has yet to land a KO in the UFC but I think that his 5” reach advantage and technically sound striking will be enough to help him land on the fragile chin of Lopes here.
Although Lopes has a grappling path in theory, I would be very surprised to see him dominate in that realm for 15 minutes, let alone survive the damage from Stirling, especially early in the fight. Give me the Aussie.
—
On DraftKings, Stirling is priced up to 9.4k and will be a boom or bust knockout option at the cost.
With that said, you’re probably not going to find a breakdown that doesn’t end with picking Stirling to win by round one KO, which is why he’s ultimately -650 to win and -275 to win ITD.
It has to be said, but there’s just a lot of variance that comes with knockdowns. The reality is it might happen or it might not. People were pretty confident he’d put down Tokkos and Bellato, but Stirling couldn’t finish those fights.
Lopes’ durability does look weak though, and Stirling is a pretty respectable striker, so his time will come. It probably comes here, and in a win, he has a decent shot of 100-110 DK points.
This top range is pretty tricky. I think Stirling is the most straightforward of the group and is arguably a priority because of it. Chiesa in comparison rarely hits a ceiling even when he does win ITD, and Thainara at the top is likely to go the distance. If Stirling goes the distance, he’s very unlikely to score 100 points and will get beaten by those above him.
For the price, Stirling is a pretty solid option. I don’t think he’s a clear standout among the top tier but from an early finishing standpoint, on paper at least, he is. I’m willing to play him moderately but I don’t think spreading your exposure out is a bad idea.
Lopes is priced at 6.8k and doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
Maybe he should, and in a win, he should score well. Stirling can be taken down. I’m just not that high on Lopes’ skill set, and he’s a huge dog.
I don’t think Lopes will gain much ownership though and will be leverage against Stirling. He’s +600 to win ITD. If you have a large portfolio of lineups, perhaps he’s a viable dart throw, but I’d only consider him a dart throw this week.
There’s enough variance in this division to give me some pause but Lopes rates out among the worst underdogs on the slate this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Stirling by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez
Fight Odds: Simon -140, Yanez +130
Odds to end ITD: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Simon 8.6k, Yanez 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a UFC veteran fight here between Ricky Simon and Adrian Yanez.
I have generally liked Simon as he is a high volume wrestler with pretty good cardio, but he has really underperformed in his last four losses against Song Yadong, Mario Bautista, Vinicius Oliveira, and Raoni Barcelos. Those fighters are all solid, but Simon does look a bit worn down and declined to me.
Simon did have some recent wins against Javid Basharat and Cameron Smotherman so maybe it is a quality of competition thing, although I thought the Basharat win was a bit random. I will analyze Simon’s historical skillset but do know I think he has probably declined to a degree.
Simon lands a solid 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts nearly 11 takedowns a fight. That is an incredible takedown rate and Simon should crush most below-average grapplers in this division fighting at that pace. Simon has legit takedowns with a great double leg.
Simon’s TDD is extremely good as he defends takedowns at 76 percent. Almost all of his takedowns conceded in the UFC were to Merab and there is no shame in that. Merab couldn’t even really control Simon on the mat though and only obtained 2:42 of control time on Simon. Simon is just a very good defensive grappler.
However, I have always worried about Simon’s top control against good wrestlers. I think he can control and overwhelm low tier to average grapplers. He has really dominated some bad grapplers on the mat which is fine. However, he has struggled to hold down some of the more competent grapplers that he has faced. For example, he took Rob Font down 6 times in 15 minutes and only obtained 3 minutes of control. He took down Ray Borg 7 times and only obtained 5 minutes of control. He also really struggled holding down Yadong, Bautista, and Oliveira. Those last three guys then basically dominated Simon on the feet.
The striking is really the problem with Simon. He has historically been an okay striker. However, he lands 3.04 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.85 in return and has looked worse and worse striking in recent fights. I don’t have a ton of faith in Simon on the feet. He is an athletic and explosive dude so he is capable of stringing together some powerful strikes and landing hard. He is knockout capable. However, I don’t think he is super skilled on the feet and capable of landing a ton in volume. I just don’t think he is a good striking round winner.
Simon will be taking on UFC veteran Adrian Yanez. Yanez is a striker. In fact, he has never even landed a takedown in the UFC, and I don’t expect offensive wrestling to be a path to victory for him. If he wins fights, it will likely be with his striking.
Yanez lands 6.23 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.75 in return. He defends strikes at 54 percent which is decent. I like Yanez’s skills on the feet. He is slick and has some great counters. He is dangerous with his hands and his kicks. He lands a lot of strikes which is good.
However, absorbing more than 5 significant strikes per minute is asking for trouble and I knew Yanez would eventually get knocked out because of it. Yanez isn’t bad defensively. It is just that he involves himself in high paced fights so him and his opponents land a lot. I just think he will continue to be a victim to variance at some point. When you absorb that many strikes, eventually you will pay by either getting dropped and losing a round or by getting knocked out. He was knocked out by Font and Martinez.
Yanez defends takedowns at 81 percent. However, he has only faced 10 takedown attempts in the UFC. My instincts tell me that his defensive grappling is competent. However, he doesn’t come from a wrestling background so my guess is that good grapplers can probably have success against him. However, I actually thought he scrambled up just fine against Daniel Marcos who has turned out to be a decent grappler.
As far as this matchup goes, I think outside of a big shot landing for Simon, Yanez should be at a clear advantage standing. Yanez is just so much cleaner and technical as a striker. I think Yanez could also hurt Simon. My guess is Simon stays tough and survives though.
I think for Simon to win, he will need to get grappling going. I don’t think it is impossible. Yanez hasn’t faced a ton of grapplers and this is the most pure wrestler Yanez has faced. I definitely think Simon can land takedowns.
I just have a feeling Simon won’t be able to easily hold Yanez down though. Simon’s small sample of scrambling looked good enough to me. So my guess is Yanez scrambles up enough, minimizes some of Simon’s wrestling and wins by landing the more successful strikes.
—
On DraftKings, I’m not super interested in the matchup and I view it similar to Tim.
I honestly expect this fight to be competitive. Even though I want to pick Yanez because he’s the cleaner striker, and I am not high on Simon at this point in his career, Yanez has some issues.
Even in striking exchanges, he’s getting hit a lot and occasionally hurt. I personally didn’t love his takedown defense against Marcos, and although his scrambles are fine, I think Simon can take him down.
I could very easily picture Simon landing 3 takedowns, and 50-60 significant strikes over 15 minutes, while Yanez lands 70-80 significant strikes. And it could easily be a competitive decision because of that.
Simon is priced up to 8.6k and he does have paths. We’ve targeted him in the past for wrestling volume, and he’s actually averaging 103 DK points per win which is great. I’ve gotten off him in recent fights, and he only put up 78 against Smotherman and then lost to Barcelos.
Based on my projection, I think Simon scoring 80 points is very reasonable. For him to exceed that, he’ll likely need 5+ takedowns, or a random knockdown/knockout. Both are in play, and Simon has landed 5+ takedowns six times.
However, those all came early in his career. He has failed to exceed three takedowns landed in any of his past eight fights, and that’s partially the reason I’ve gotten away from him, because his control is mediocre enough that 1-2 takedowns don’t matter.
I don’t want to completely write off Simon here. He still packs a punch, and can wrestle, but he’s only +400 to win ITD. My guess is he wins or loses a close decision and doesn’t clear 90 points, so I’m not dying to play much of him. I’d still label him a fine, low-end secondary option as historically he has paths that can score well and there’s some variance in this kind of matchup with Yanez eating a lot of strikes per minute.
Yanez only costs 7.6k and I think he’s very live to win.
The real issue is whether he has much upside, and if so or not, is he much better than a fighter like Alexa Grasso? On paper the answer is yes, because Yanez is +235 to win ITD which shows real finishing equity. Simon has only been knocked out twice though, and one of those instances came in round five.
My best guess for Yanez is that he gets taken down, defends, scrambles, and outboxes his way to a decision. Even with 80 significant strikes landed, he may not score more than 60-70 DK points. To put it contextually, if Yanez had won his last split decision instead of lost it, he would have only scored 65 DK points.
On paper, Yanez is a solid upside option with real win equity. I do respect his power and wouldn’t rule that out. But in reality, I do think he’s more likely to win a decision and I question the upside.
I’m still willing to play Yanez because I think he can win, and we get the benefit of the odds showing upside as well, but I think it’s fair to prioritize some options surrounding him for more achievable paths to 100 DK points.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yanez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Alexia Thairnara vs. Bruna Brasil
Fight Odds: Thainara -800, Brasil +550
Odds to end ITD: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Thainara 9.6k, Brasil 7.6k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a rematch here between hot prospect Alexia Thainara and Bruna Brasil.
These two fought about seven years ago on the regionals. Essentially, the first two rounds were competitive but I do think Thainara was winning especially as the fight went on by landing takedowns, getting top time, and landing some better strikes. It was close though, and Thainara walked into a guillotine and was submitted in round 3.
I think these girls have changed dramatically as fighters since, especially Thainara, so I am basically going to disregard that fight. Thainara was 21 years old when that fight happened. She is 28 now.
Thainara is now 13-1 professionally. She fights out of the Amanda Ribas family camp.
Thainara booked her ticket to the UFC by winning a dominant decision on the Contender Series against a Brazilian national wrestling champion. Thainara outlanded her opponent 101-46 in significant strikes and actually landed 3 takedowns of her own.
I actually loved the way Thainara looked prior to her UFC debut against Molly McCann and we played her at -200. Thainara was able to take McCann down, dominate her, and finish her on the mat.
Thainara then fought Loma Lookboonmee and looked fantastic in that fight. Thainara struck competitively with Lookboonme but used her physicality, and was able to land 5 takedowns and obtain 10 minutes of control. It was a really good performance by Thainara.
I actually think Thainara is a great prospect and she is super physical, and she can probably go decently far in this division.
Thainara is kind of a freestyle fighter. She is actually very physical and athletic. Those attributes definitely help her. I think she comes from some type of grappling background which makes sense given she has come up in the Ribas camp. Her takedowns are actually pretty strong. She incorporates a lot of trips and can throw in the occasional double leg. I definitely think she will take down many fighters in this division.
Once Thainara is on top, she can hold top position and she is competent. She will throw ground-and-pound when she postures up. I do wish she advanced position a little more. She has 7 wins by submission, but I am not as confident in her ability to get dominant positions as she gets steps up in competition. She is solid though.
One thing Thainara does that really annoys me is that she will take an opponent down easily and display a clear ability to keep them down. Then she will stand up and start kicking their legs, and then the ref will reasonably stand them up. That is poor fight IQ and it could legitimately be the reason she loses a fight at the UFC level. So that was annoying because it isn’t even a fighting ability thing. It is just a fight IQ thing. She didn’t do it vs Lookboonmee though.
Thainara’s defensive grappling looked a bit sketchy early in her career, but it has looked much better in her last two to three fights. She has good physicality and I saw her work up well. I want to see more of her defensive grappling, but I do think it will hold up against the weaker grapplers of the UFC.
On the feet, Thainara is also decent. She is fast and athletic and can keep up a good pace. She has good cardio. She likes to land a lead low kick and then she will blast in a three punch combination. She has some pretty fast hands. She is a little green but I honestly don’t think she is bad as a striker and she is clearly improving. I do question her a bit defensively though as she looks a bit ugly with her striking technique, and her head is sometimes right in the air. I still think she can strike just fine at this level though just with her cardio, volume, and aggressiveness.
Brasil is a Brazilian fighter who is 11-6-1 professionally. She is 32 years old. She comes from a kickboxing background and is a brown belt in BJJ. She is 3-4 in the UFC.
Brasil’s striking is okay. She has some decent kicks and a good body kick which she hurt McCann with several times. She can control range decently and mix in her kicks, and then throw punches when opponents enter range. She is okay and I consider her competent.
Brasil is just too low volume for my liking though. She only lands 2.57 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.59 in return. In six decisions, she has landed 56, 28, 44, 31, 31, and 31 significant strikes which is just not enough volume. Also apparently she loves landing 31 significant strikes in fights.
I do think her metrics got ruined a bit against Wang Cong though. She was outlanded 103-31 in significant strikes in that fight but has actually generally stayed competitive with her opponents on the numbers.
Brasil’s grappling is also competent but not great. She was taken down at times by Molly McCann. She also surrendered 3 takedowns against Denise Gomes and Marnic Mann. She only defends takedowns at 61 percent. She can sort of defend takedowns and she can defend herself on the mat, but she can be taken down and controlled a bit.
Brasil lands 1.40 takedowns per 15 minutes which is decent and she can mix in takedowns against weak grapplers. She can sort of float in top position and isn’t bad. She can also take the back which she did against McCann. She also used her size to win round 3 against Loma Lookboonme by clinching her against the cage. I still don’t consider Brasil great either, and more so think she can only outgrapple weak grapplers.
Brasil is just decent. She is competent in all areas but lacks offense and doesn’t thrive anywhere.
As far as this matchup goes, I just don’t see where Brasil can clearly differentiate herself.
On the feet, I think Thainara has more physicality and output. I think if anyone just wins the striking clean it will be Thainara. However, I do think Brasil is a bit better at limiting strikes and keeping striking fights competitive than I think I realized prior to tape. Wang was the only person who really dominated her. So I could at least see it being competitive.
I also think Thainara is a better wrestler and if anyone gets a lot of control, it will be Thainara. I think Thainara’s physicality and overall game has really polished up and I just favor her in all areas.
Again, I don’t think Brasil is absolutely screwed. I think Brasil can defensively compete on the feet. I also think Brasil can maybe land a takedown of her own or threaten with submissions here and there. However, I don’t think Brasil can cleanly win rounds and I do think Thainara has improved a lot since their first fight.
—
On DraftKings, Thainara is priced up to 9.6k and I’ll be curious if the public wants to pay up for her.
I’m extremely high on Thainara from a prospect standpoint, and I’ve already made it public that I think she can be a contender for the title. I just think she has the right mix of physicality, athleticism, volume, and wrestling, and she’s going to win rounds at a high rate in this division.
I don’t personally care about her losing last time to Brasil. And it’s not that her losing again is impossible, but ultimately, Brasil just doesn’t produce much offense. I don’t see 30-40 strikes and 1 takedown being enough to win this fight at a high rate.
I do have some pause on Thainara totally dominating. Brasil only absorbs 3.59 sig strikes per minute and likes to disengage. It’s possible Thainara just overpowers her with physicality but I’m not convinced it leads to a quick finish.
For that reason, I consider Thainara more of a safety play than a surefire upside target. Thainara is actually only +160 to win ITD, so she’s far from a guarantee to finish.
However, she’s already scored 106 in a submission win and 103 in a decision win. She has multiple paths. She can wrestle at a high rate and win by decision, or win ITD along the way. I wouldn’t even rule out her hurting Brasil.
I’m just a little nervous about Brasil limiting exchanges and therefore limiting Thainara’s ceiling. I don’t consider her a true priority at this price tag because of it.
If I have the ability to afford her, Thainara is in play. If some of the finishers priced below her fail to win ITD, Thainara can beat them out in a multitude of ways. In smaller fields I think her value increases due to her general safety and output. I’d still only label her a secondary option as it would be fair to prioritize some better ITD options priced below.
Brasil is priced at 6.6k and I’m not very interested in her.
She will rate out ok from a floor perspective, in that the fight is -190 to go three rounds. Brasil could definitely land 30 significant strikes in a loss. So if you want 12 DK points, Brasil might be your best bet.
I just don’t think she has much upside, and clearly she lacks win equity on paper. She’s +1050 to win ITD so the public doesn’t think much of her last finish clearly. And even when she wins by decision, Brasil is scoring 56, 81 and 71.
I’m not going to play Brasil personally. If you want to hope for a competitive decision, Brasil could possibly help you there. She could last a while and score a few points. I just don’t see enough win equity or finishing upside to warrant any real investment.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Thainara by Decision (Confidence=High)