Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Timand Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
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Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis
Fight Odds: Allen -200, Curtis +170
Odds to Finish: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Allen 8.9k, Curtis 7.3k
Weight Class: 185
A rematch from 2021, Brendan Allen will be looking for vengeance on Saturday as he takes on the last man to knock him out in Chris Curtis.
I will get this off my chest at the start of the breakdown too – I am just not a fan of Chris Curtis as a person. I rarely have spats with fighters but Curtis is probably at, or near the very top of the list of current UFC fighters who I dislike.
He is a super one-dimensional talent who hasn’t improved his skill set in years, and has already announced his retirement from pro MMA on three different occasions.
When he loses, he’ll throw out excuse after excuse. Or, he’ll find a way out of the fight, like he did in his loss to Nassourdine Imavov, who was beating him handedly before the two clashed heads, and Curtis declared he was unable to see.
He’s also one of those types who will get into countless Twitter arguments, even when he’s not being tagged. He’ll also search his name and block anyone who critiques him.
The only reason I am bringing this up is because he’s been an infuriating fighter for me to follow and analyze. Like, dude, instead of whining about the judges or the refs or whomever, try learning how to wrestle so you’re not averaging 0.00 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Try learning how to defend strikes so you’re not absorbing 6.0 per minute, and maybe you wouldn’t be in so many super-competitive rounds.
Anyways, despite his poor metrics and fight IQ, Curtis is a decent boxer and that’s really the main focal point of his game.
He has some power in his hands and he’s earned four of his six UFC/DWCS wins by knockout, including one against Joaquin Buckley, and another one against his current opponent Brendan Allen.
Unless Curtis is damaging you though, he is very unlikely to be winning convincingly. At distance, he’s landing 5.6 sig. strikes per minute and absorbing 6.9 per minute, so he’ll rarely be ahead on the numbers. And like I already mentioned, he doesn’t wrestle offensively, or kick much, and so he’s put himself into this awkward position where he simply doesn’t have many options.
Even in a couple of his knockout victories, Curtis was losing early. Buckley had clearly outstruck him in round one before getting knocked out in round two, and the same thing happened to Phil Hawes.
Overall, Curtis is decent with his hands, but he’s quite limited in most other aspects of the game.
Conversely, I have always been a fan of Brendan Allen. He’s an aggressive fighter who specializes in grappling, and that’s one of my favorite styles of fighting.
Allen is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and when he’s able to secure dominant positions, he can very often find ways to finish the fight. He is actually coming off four consecutive RNC victories, which is pretty impressive.
The problem with Allen though, similar to last week with Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, is that his wrestling has not always been a dominant aspect of his game.
He only averages 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is far too low for me to be confident that he’ll shoot continuously, or be willing to dive back on the legs if his opponent scrambles free.
Take his last fight against Curtis as an example. Allen was able to take Curtis down early in the first round, and he immediately jumped on his back, but allowed Curtis to scramble free. He wasn’t even officially credited with that takedown, but regardless, Allen only attempted two more takedowns and failed on both.
In that time, Allen was forced to strike, and he eventually got hurt and knocked out in the second round.
This is important because despite the rematch taking place several years later, I really don’t think much has changed between these fighters.
Yes, Allen has won a bunch of fights in a row by RNC, but those are completely different stylistic matchups. He’s faced almost no real boxing threat since that time, and outwrestling someone like Paul Craig has no impact on whether his skills can translate to Chris Curtis.
Curtis has his issues, but one thing he’s always been able to do well is defend takedowns. He’s currently defending at 92 percent in the UFC, and that includes a win over a grappler in Rodolfo Vieira who was shut out on all 20 of his takedown attempts.
Allen, I fear, may be too willing to stand and trade here. He used to be a much more dependent grappler but he’s developed his kickboxing skills in the past five years, and we’ve seen him abandon his wrestling at times, which has contributed to his low averages.
The issue is that although he’s actually getting better with his hands, Allen isn’t very defensively sound. He’s defending strikes at 46 percent and he was knocked out by both Curtis and Sean Strickland.
Allen can kick well enough and he throws enough volume to be competitive with Curtis, but he’s on the wrong end of the defensive and durability spectrum here.
Similar to last week, analyzing the matchup is tough because only one of these fighters has legitimate grappling upside – and that’s Allen. He can wrestle and he is a very legit submission grappler. In theory, he can land a few takedowns and take Curtis’ back, and potentially find a finish.
But there’s a good chance that Allen either won’t wrestle with urgency, or won’t have success wrestling, in which case, this just becomes a boxing match. And if that happens, I think Curtis has a legitimate case to be favored outright.
I suppose the five rounds helps Allen a little bit, as he’s done it before. He went five crazy rounds on the regionals with Anthony Hernandez in 2018, so his cardio should hold up fine. Curtis has a good gas tank as well but he was looking a little tired toward the end of his last fight against Marc-Andre Barriault. Curtis is also stepping in on about two week’s notice, for what it’s worth.
Still, I don’t particularly trust Allen in striking exchanges in general. He’s also getting hit more than he lands strikes at distance, landing 6.0 strikes per minute while absorbing 6.4 per minute. And he’s been hurt several times.
At best, I do think Allen can compete in rounds, potentially be a little more active than Curtis at times, and maybe have more energy down the stretch. Allen should be the superior kicker if he can force this fight at longer ranges. He won’t have a ton of knockout equity though, at least on paper.
Curtis should be the more damaging boxer, and I lean toward him having more knockout upside and damage potential than Allen, especially early. He outlanded Allen 49 to 39 at distance in seven minutes in the first fight, and was ripping him to the body and head. It seems quite realistic that while the fight stays standing, Curtis can have similar success.
I obviously want to buy into Allen because of his grappling base, and because I’m not a fan of Curtis, but like last week, I’m pretty nervous that Allen won’t be able to control Curtis on the mat with ease. Because of that, I view this as a much more competitive fight than the betting line entails, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it end in the same fashion as the first fight.
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On DraftKings, Allen is priced up to 8.9k and like last week, he has more fantasy upside given his grappling style.
He’s surpassed 100 points on several occasions, topping out at 118 and 111 in two of his submission wins. It’s fair to believe that if Allen wins, it should come in part due to grappling, and it could theoretically come ITD as well.
Allen is -105 to win ITD which is a pretty strong line, and it’s a credit to his actual finishing ability on the mat. However, Curtis has only been submitted once, and he’s only been knocked out once in 41 pro fights. I wouldn’t consider this an easy matchup for Allen to win ITD.
Given his five-round potential though, Allen still has a solid floor and ceiling in a win. We’ve rarely seen legit striking volume from him but Allen did top 90 sig. strikes in a three-round fight against Soriano in 2021.
Over five rounds, it’s possible that he could reach a new career high in the low 100s. Add on a few takedowns, and some control, and Allen would score respectably in a decision. For that reason, Allen is a fine option at 8.9k and probably exceeds value in a win, potentially competing with the optimal lineup.
I am just really nervous about him because he hasn’t forced a wrestling game very often, and has literally never topped two takedowns in 14 tracked fights. Without the dominant control, Allen’s chances of winning and winning ITD drop dramatically.
It’s just a situation where we have to say, well, if Allen does win, I guess it would have to come from some type of offensive production. And it should be grappling. So based on that, and his strong moneyline and strong ITD line, Allen rates out fine.
But I do consider this a riskier fight than the betting line suggests, and it’s not the best matchup for Allen to rack up grappling points. Because of that, I’m sort of inclined to come in lighter on Allen this week, and use him more as a secondary target than a primary one.
Curtis at 7.3k does not rate out very well from a fantasy perspective but like Fiorot last week, he could still exceed value in a victory.
The downside is that he does not wrestle, and doesn’t project to land any takedowns. He could be taken down and controlled himself, and that could limit his floor and ceiling.
Even in a striking-based matchup, Curtis usually gets hit more often than he lands strikes, so it’s not a guarantee there. But, it’s still a fight he could win, and a fight he could win by knockout.
He’s also coming off a high-paced fight in which he lande 140 sig. strikes in three rounds, and I would say he can produce something similar over five if he beats Allen. That’s around 90 points in a win, which could be optimal.
He’s also +285 to win ITD and that’s probably the better reasoning for targeting him. He’s already knocked Allen out once and he could hurt him again. A KO could score optimally if it comes in the first couple of rounds.
I really hate to have any investment in Curtis ever, but I think he’s a fine option on this slate given the matchup and given the price. I won’t be jamming him in personally but I think he’s a strong secondary target and salary saver, and I wouldn’t be fully against prioritizing him over Allen straight up if you like several other favorites on the slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Allen by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson
Fight Odds: Hernandez -202, Jackson +171
Odds to Finish: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.7k, Jackson 7.5k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a bit of a crossroads fight here between Alexander Hernandez and Damon Jackson. Both of these guys have had a lot of losses lately and are in desperate need of a win.
Hernandez is an okay fighter. He lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.90 in return. He is capable of landing some big shots with some blitzes. He has some speed too, but other than that I don’t think he is particularly good or skilled on the feet. I do think his overall pace on the feet has looked better in his last two fights against Jim Miller and Bill Algeo though.
Hernandez has struggled going through adversity though in fights. We have seen him broken on numerous occasions, including by Billy Quarantillo, Drew, Dober, and Donald Cerrone. Again though, I do think he looked tougher down the stretch in his last couple of fights.
As a grappler, Herndandez seems pretty competent, but not great. He comes from a wrestling background. He lands 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes. He outwrestled Olivier Aubin-Mercier to a grinding decision which was his best 15-minute performance to date. He also took Drew Dober down three times but couldn’t keep him on the mat and was eventually knocked out. I do think Hernandez can outgrapple weak to below-average grapplers in this division.
Defensively as a grappler, Hernandez is adequate. He defends takedowns at 60 percent. He is not very easy to take and hold down, but he can get his back taken and beaten on the mat, and body triangled especially when he tires out.
Hernandez will be taking on Damon Jackson. Jackson is alright, but I think he is limited athletically and not skilled enough as a striker to go too far in this division. However, he is a tough guy, pretty well-rounded, and a savvy grappler which should keep him employed in the UFC for a while.
Jackson thrives mostly with his grappling. He lands 2.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts nearly seven takedowns per fight. I like that tenacity. He LOVES the body lock / angle change takedown, he almost goes to it exclusively.
Jackson is capable of getting top position and threatening with back takes and submissions. He will continue to feast off below-average grapplers in this division.
I do worry a bit with Jackson’s physicality. Even against Dan Argueta, he was getting reversed and tired at times. There will definitely be points where his wrestling gets shut down as was the case in his most recent knockout loss vs Dan Ige. He can be outwrestled himself as well. Mirsad Bektic landed seven takedowns on him and Jackson only defends takedowns at 40 percent in total.
Jackson isn’t the most technical striker. He does at least have some sneaky power and he did knock out Pat Sabatini. However, he only lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.46 in return. His best significant strike performance in a decision is 67, which isn’t great.
I also just want to say that Jackson looked awful in his last matchups vs Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo. I picked Ige against Jackson, but Jackson really underperformed my expectations. He looked petrified to even engage on the feet and only attempted one takedown. It was concerning.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Hernandez has what it takes to stop the takedowns of Jackson early in this fight. On the feet, I think Herandez is more athletic and has what it takes to give Jackson a ton of issues. Jackson also just doesn’t push a heavy striking pace, which is usually what you need to really slow down Hernandez. I think Hernandez could hurt Jackson too or even land takedowns. So I ultimately think I am going to go with Hernandez here.
However, if this fight just gets chaotic and Jackson attempts a ton of takedowns, I do think he could slow Hernandez down and would have a chance to finish him. I do think Jackson is the more slick submission grappler in general here.
But Hernandez is the more physical guy and I favor him in the striking exchanges early, so I am going to go with Hernandez to win the fight.
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On DraftKings, although I have targeted both fighters in separate matchups, I am not as interested to invest in a matchup between the pair.
Mostly, I am nervous that we don’t see domination from either side. Hernandez is priced at 8.7k and probably won’t produce enough offense in a decision, though I would consider his floor to be decent.
Jackson is a strong wrestler though so that should limit some of Hernandez’ potential. Otherwise, I think the best case for Hernandez is an early KO win, which I do think is realistic.
Jackson doesn’t have great durability and he’s been knocked out multiple times. Granted, it seems like the absence of USADA has changed Jackson’s build in leading up to this fight, but I am still skeptical.
Hernandez is the more dangerous striker and the harder hitter early, and that could lead to a KO. He is actually -110 to win ITD which is surprising to me, but very strong.
At 8.7k, I still mostly consider Hernandez a boom or bust target. I don’t think he would easily surpass 90 points in a decision win. But with some KO upside, and a more affordable price tag, Hernandez is viable as a secondary option.
You could even aim to be overweight to the field if Hernandez doesn’t project to be chalk, which I am not expecting. People usually like to fade him anyways. His ITD metric is great compared to his price but he hasn’t proven particularly trustworthy outside of some impressive, early moments.
Jackson at 7.5k has a lot of upside within his style, because he’s a pretty aggressive wrestler and he tends to dominate when he wins.
So we’ve seen several 100+ scores from Jackson in wins, which is a good example of his upside.
However, I think this is a tough matchup. I do not see him striking at a high pace or knocking Hernandez out. Perhaps he has some wrestling equity but I don’t think he can control Hernandez easily. And I’m definitely not convinced he has elite enough cardio to wear Hernandez down dramatically.
So, although I like Jackson OK as a fighter, I will probably choose to avoid him in this matchup. He’s +375 to win ITD and I pretty much only want to target him when he has wrestling domination upside, which I don’t think is the case this weekend.
We’ve seen Hernandez implode a number of times so it’s not impossible Jackson could get the win, but he’s a low-end secondary option in my mind.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Morgan Charriere vs. Chepe Mariscal
Fight Odds: Charriere -119, Mariscal +104
Odds to Finish: +145
DraftKings Salaries: Charriere 8.3k, Mariscal 7.9k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Morgan Charriere is a French national and nine-fight vet of the Cage Warriors promotion who made good on his debut this past September – he’s 19-9-1 as a pro. Chepe Mariscal is a hardened vet of the regional scene who’s turned some heads since entering the UFC this past year. He’ll be coming in on four weeks’ notice to replace Seung-Woo Choi – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 15-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Charriere comes from a boxing background which is on display in his fighting style. His best work comes within the lip of the pocket with a respectable hook game and he will also target the body.
He’s shown power as well for the weight class, finishing 11 of his 19 pro wins via strikes, and he appears to be a solid athlete. His pacing has generally been average or worse, but there have been certain fights where he’s been higher output as well.
The issue I have with him is that despite excelling offensively within the pocket, he is a guy who will look to roll strikes which can be effective at times, but he’s shown hittable tendencies too.
So even in the scenarios that he’s winning within those exchanges, it can often optically look very competitive – somewhat similar to an issue Bobby Green has had in his career. Because of that, he doesn’t always separate himself.
I’ve seen him get cracked good a few times, but he has proven durable throughout his career having never been KO’d through 29 bouts.
Overall, I think Charriere is a good striker, but I have my issues if he’s going to face another competent striker who can push a pace.
Mariscal comes from a boxing/kickboxing background but hasn’t always shown to be the most technical party in the world.
Specifically, earlier on in his career, he pretty much just came forward and swung bombs with little regard for anything, trying to take people’s heads off. It does appear that he’s reigned that in a bit more at least in the last couple regional fights but it’s almost been a 180 in the sense that he’s not throwing a ton at distance now.
However, he’s still shown the “old school” Mariscal as he’s one of those guys that when he hurts someone and smells blood in the water, he’s going to go nuts and try to get you out of there which he has done in his last 3-4 fights.
In the more reserved components of him, he’s not eating a ton of strikes but it’s when he’s gotten into brawls or when guys have unloaded on him, he’s gotten hurt – specifically in his fights with Brito and Garcia.
He got dropped early in the Garcia fight but the official stoppage in the 2nd round was BS as it was a standing TKO and he was fine. Mariscal did take the best shots of Peek though who hits hard and despite brawling there, he showed he was the better technical brawler and just out-worked Peek overall.
Most recently, the technicality of Jenkins gave him some issues as he lost the overall distance exchanges and got his legs beat up a bit.
With all of that being said, I don’t fully know what to make of Mariscal as a striker in 2024 or what his approach may or may not be – it’s probably going to vary based on the opponent.
How it plays out: The stand up is tricky here because I could see it going a handful of ways given the variable approaches that we’ve seen from Mariscal. I feel that if Mariscal is going to have a more technical kickboxing match with a guy like Charriere, he’s going to struggle as I rate the technicality and precision of Charriere’s more than I do Mariscal. Where more of the Mariscal merit lies is if he’s able to force a dog fight and make the exchanges dirtier. Now in doing so, it’s definitely going to leave him susceptible which is going to increase his chances of getting KO’d, but it will also put Charriere in a type of fight that I don’t feel he’ll particularly like. Not a direct comparison but similar to last week with Emmers and Landwehr where Landwehr was less skilled on paper, but he took Emmers out of his element and was able to have lots of success. Is that what’s going to happen here? It’s hard to say.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Charriere additionally comes from a Luta Livre background where he holds a brown belt in the discipline. The floor has been a bit up and down with him as he is a guy who will shoot TDs in his fights to which he’s had varying degrees of success.
He’s been able to establish control in certain scenarios and look to pass at times but has struggled with securing anything – he’s also sacrificed positions a handful of times to attack things that haven’t been successful.
He has three pro wins via submission but two of those have been leg locks, which isn’t the most predictive thing, especially at the higher levels of MMA.
Defensively, wrestling against has been a component in some of his losses in dropping rounds, as he’s not immune to being taken down and controlled for stretches of time himself. To his credit, he’s always been able to work up and out of positions eventually, but it has taken some time specifically at points against Hughes in his last loss.
He’s only been submitted once which came back in 2015, which was ironically via a heel hook as well.
In the few times I’ve seen him threatened in his more recent fights, he’s been able to defend attempts.
Overall, he seems a tad wishy washy on the ground to me but is definitely capable of grinding or beating up guys on the floor if they’re not of the highest tier. A stronger UFC level wrestler will probably expose him though.
Mariscal comes from a judo background and holds a black belt in the discipline. The ground in his fights has been a bit all over the board.
He outwrestled UFC fighter Yusuff Zalal back in the day and had some success against Garcia and even Mitchell. We also saw him get the better of the wrestling against Peek but he did struggle to control him per TD, and lost position a handful of times as well.
But he did ultimately lose the ground against Mitchell, got run through by Gillespie and was extensively controlled by Soriano.
He does have a win over Pat Sabatini back in 2018 which was a fight I was unfortunately unable to find – it was a split decision win, so I don’t know if the result was justified or not but that’s one heck of a W to have on your rap sheet – he obviously didn’t get subbed and/or controlled enough to where the decision was definitive – impressive.
Mariscal has threatened submissions, but I don’t rate him as an offensive submission grappler. The one thing I do feel pretty convinced in saying is that his defensive grappling is good though to have not only never been submitted in his career, but more so contextually in terms of the guys he’s fought.
At the end of the day, the guys who have beaten him on the floor are all current UFC fighters with wrestling and/or grappling backgrounds.
How it plays out: In theory, I could see both guys realizing some success here as they’ve both spent some time on the bottom in the past. I do like Charriere’s ability to use overhooks though to stuff TDs, which is a positive attribute to have against a guy in Mariscal whose TDs primarily come upper body due to his judo background. At the same time, Mariscal will probably be the more likely party to pursue TDs and/or clinching based scenarios, so I feel he has a bit more upside here of the two.
Fun fight that has a decent degree of volatility and variance. I feel Charriere is the better striker and athlete of the two who probably has better durability. But Mariscal throws heat and has some more grappling upside. Once again, Mariscal is coming into this one on semi-shorter notice as well. I’ve gone back and forth on who I’m picking here but I slightly lean Charriere.
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On DraftKings, I again feel a bit nervous about this fight as it doesn’t project for either side to have clear domination potential.
Charriere is priced at 8.3k, and he will need a knockout to have a realistic shot at the optimal. Mariscal has been KOd a few times in his career, enough to the point that people were picking Trevor Peek to beat him.
So, in that sense, Charriere probably has some narrative based KO upside. He’s a decent striker and Mariscal could get hurt. Charriere is +190 to win ITD, which is OK but not great.
The fact that Charriere is coming off a 110-point score in his UFC debut probably means he’ll get some love, but I still can’t project him as chalk. He’s just a clear boom or bust target in a mediocre-at-best matchup. He’s fine to mix in but it’s tough for me to say with any confidence that he’ll score an early KO here.
Mariscal at 7.9k can certainly win this fight, but I’m not particularly confident in that outcome either, and I think his upside would more come from grappling.
Charriere hasn’t been knocked out, so relying on a KO from Mariscal seems unrealistic. Mariscal’s box scores look great but his last win was based on an injury, not a true KO, so it’s a bit deceiving.
Otherwise, I noted prior to Charriere’s debut that he has some weaknesses once he’s grounded, and I could see Mariscal taking advantage of that. I also think it’s possible that Charriere’s first-level TDD is good enough to mostly defend and keep the fight upright.
Mariscal is only +585 to win ITD which is really bad. While I think there’s a case to be made for him to win the fight, I’m uncertain about whether he carries a ceiling strong enough to be optimal on this slate. Mariscal rates out as a fine secondary target but I think I would rather pay down a little bit more, for the most part.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Charriere by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos
Fight Odds: Bahamondes -360, Giagos +284
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Bahamondes 9.1k, Giagos 7.1k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off his first loss in a while to Ludovit Klein last August, Ignacio Bahamondes will look to right the ship this weekend against Christos Giagos, which is a favorable matchup for him on paper.
Ignacio is very much a striker. He has never landed a takedown in the UFC and seems to have no interest in grappling. He just wants to strike. He landed a viral knockout in his matchup against Roosevelt Roberts a few years back. It was a cool one.
Ignacio is long for the division. He is 6’3” and has a 75” reach. He has a lot of offense and diversity in his strikes. He will throw straight punches, hooks, kicks, elbows, and knees. I like his offense.
He lands 6.97 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.36 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. I think his striking is solid and he can definitely win fights at this level with it. He keeps up a heavy pace and has good cardio as well. He looked good against Trey Ogden which is a win that I suppose is starting to age decently.
I think my main criticism for Ignacio’s striking is that he is hittable. He absorbs 4.36 significant strikes per minute which is a lot. So he can be a victim of high-variance moments on the feet even if he is better than his opponents.
He does seem to be a tough kid though and has never been knocked out in his career. You saw him get hurt in his most recent matchup against Klein though, which just echoes my point that he can get tagged.
Ignacio’s defensive wrestling seems decent. He currently defends takedowns at 85 percent. He stopped all 12 takedowns attempted by Roberts. He also defended all five takedowns in his Contender Series fight. It seems decent, but he was taken down three times against Klein and controlled for six minutes. I do think he was hurt a bit in that fight which contributed to Klein’s wrestling success. Still though, I will be a bit skeptical of Ignacio’s defensive wrestling going forward.
Ignacio will be taking on Christos Giagos. Giagos is actually a decent fighter but his issue is his cardio. The guy just slows down dramatically in fights to the point to where he can barely defend himself. His cardio is just a problem and will always be a concern later in fights.
Giagos has been winning plenty of fights early and then just gets destroyed in the latter half. His fight with Klose and Zellhuber are good examples of this.
Giagos is an okay striker. He lands 2.98 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.95 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. Giagos is decent and can go through the motions as a striker but he is not necessarily good either. I also just don’t expect him to be effective with his striking later on in fights either.
Giagos is probably best as a grappler. He actually lands 2.93 takedowns per 15 minutes which is strong but he has mostly racked up his takedowns vs weak grapplers. I still consider him moderately skilled as a wrestler and grappler though.
He has a pretty good double leg and is capable of controlling opponents on the mat to a degree. He isn’t a super strong submission grappler, but he does have a couple of submission wins in the UFC. He only defends takedowns at 52 percent. He can really get exposed on the bottom when he is tired.
As far as this matchup goes, I favor Ignacio because I trust his cardio more in general. I think he will likely be a stronger striker over the course of fifteen minutes and perhaps he can keep it standing for most of the fight. In that case, he will probably win.
Like all Giagos fights though, I do think Giagos will have success early. He can probably land some big shots on the suspect defense of Bahamondes. I also think Giagos could land takedowns here and have some grappling success.
It is just SO hard to trust Giagos over the course of fifteen minutes though. Like in all of his fights, he will probably get the shit kicked out of him in the last half of the fight so it is so difficult to pick him against anyone with cardio and durability. So I have to go with Ignacio here.
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On DraftKings, Bahamondes certainly has finishing potential, though he hasn’t been an elite fantasy scorer in the past.
Most of Bahamondes’ fights have ended by decision, and his highest mark on those occasions has been 70. He has a couple of finishes too, which scored 99 and 104, in part because both came in round three.
I do think he is capable of higher scores, just considering how active of a striker he is, but it will need to come from earlier finishes. With that said, I’m not super convinced Bahamondes will finish this fight quickly.
However, we have a pretty large sample on Giagos and I feel comfortable analyzing him at this point. He has strong moments early, and he tends to fade pretty hard. He’s lost seven times in the UFC and he’s been finished in round one or round two on five different occasions.
Bahamondes feels somewhat likely to win this fight ITD. He’s -150 to win ITD which is one of the best lines on this slate. But without wrestling equity, he’s at risk of “only” scoring in that 100 range if the finish comes late.
Would that be enough to be optimal at 9.1k? Maybe. I’d want closer to 110.
I think he’s worth the risk though, just based on finishing potential. People faded Arce for this same reason last week, despite him rating out well to win ITD. And he ended up optimal.
I’m not convinced the first round will be dominant for Bahamondes but I do think he can win by knockout and I think he’s deserving of consideration at this price tag.
Giagos at 7.1k has clear upside in a win, and he’s a fine target for that reason.
In wins, Giagos has scored 111, 96, 92, 93, 96 and 104. He either throws big right hands and wins by KO, or it’s grappling domination. And it usually comes early.
Giagos is +550 to win ITD which isn’t that strong but it’s tied into his overall moneyline, where he’s a sizable dog. His ceiling is still legitimate though. And Bahamondes has been hurt and taken down recently, so there are clear paths for Giagos to win.
Personally, I don’t think I’m going to prioritize him though. I think Bahamondes is a step up above Zellhuber, and I just don’t love the matchup for Giagos. Even if he does have round one success, I don’t necessarily trust him to turn that into a finish.
I still believe he’s a viable target for upside, but I would classify it as a low-end one. There are other dogs I feel better about winning or have easier matchups.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bahamondes by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Valter Walker vs. Lukasz Brzeski
Fight Odds: Walker -261, Brzeski +216
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Walker 9.4k, Brzeski 6.8k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have weird matchmaking here as UFC debutant Valter Walker will be taking on Lukasz Brzeski, who has lost three straight fights.
Walker is a Brazilian fighter who is 26 years old and is a towering presence at 6’6” with an 81-inch reach. He is actually the brother of UFC veteran Johnny Walker. He is 10-0 professionally and has generally been fighting poor competition. The only fighter on his resume that I recognize is former UFC fighter Alex Nicholson who is pretty bad and an overweight light heavyweight.
Walker is kind of a pressure striker / grappler. I actually think he has a pretty good double leg for a heavyweight. He is somewhat explosive with his level change and he is capable of landing takedowns and holding top position. His cardio looks okay but not great. I do think he can land takedowns at this level though, especially early in fights. He also just pressures decently to put his opponents close to the cage, to make it easier for him to land takedowns.
I still don’t think Walker is a great submission grappler though. He only has one submission win on his resume, and I generally think if he gets finishes from top position in the UFC it will come from ground-and-pound. I haven’t seen him tested too much as a grappler defensively either.
On the feet, Walker can pressure and land some shots in close quarters. He has some decent power in close range. He isn’t a skilled striker though, and I think he is likely a borderline liability on the feet in extended fights.
Overall, Walker just looks like a guy who can probably bully below-average heavyweights in the UFC. He will also just probably be dangerous early in fights in general. I question his ability to strike in extended exchanges though and he doesn’t look like the most technical fighter in the world.
Walker will be taking on Lukasz Brzeski. Brzeski is 0-3 in the UFC and has lost in a variety of ways. In his UFC debut against Martin Buday, I actually thought he should have won the decision in a fight that played out on the feet. Brzeski showed decent volume in that fight and struck competitively throughout.
I mostly consider Brzeski a volume type of striker. He doesn’t have a ton of power for a heavyweight, but I think he is an okay striker who can compete in rounds against low-tier competition.
Brzeski then lost by getting outgrappled against Karl Williams. He was taken down a lot in the fight, but he did show decent scrambling ability and resistance early on in that fight. I don’t think he is a good defensive grappler at all, but I do think he is okay and has the right idea of giving up his back and working up to his feet. Brzeski was then knocked out by Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Brzeski isn’t good. He isn’t a great defensive wrestler and offensive wrestling doesn’t look to be a path to victory for him at this level. I do think he is an okay volume striker who can outland weak or inexperienced strikers though.
As far as this matchup goes, Walker definitely has the grappling upside so I think he is the rightful favorite. I think he can land takedowns here in general and if his cardio holds up, he may be able to dominate on the mat down the stretch. Walker also has power and could hurt Brzeski on the feet, but I do think it would have to come early.
I still have my concerns with Walker though. He has fought terrible competition, and he may be a liability in extended striking exchanges. If Brzeski can just get up early from takedowns, which I think he can, Brzeski could start winning the striking exchanges and have success in this fight. So I think Brzeski is a live dog for those reasons, and I probably favor him as a round winning striker over the course of 15 minutes.
Walker does have a decent double leg though and Brzeski is just not very good at defending takedowns or good in general. So I will go with Walker as he has the grappling upside in this matchup.
—
On DraftKings, I’m much more nervous about Walker after taping him than I was prior, and now I’m not even convinced he wins the fight.
As the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.4k, it’s a difficult position because there are other options in this range who I also like, who I feel more confident in talent wise.
Walker, I’m pretty confident, is not good. He can wrestle some, but his striking looks pretty bad and I question his cardio. I am expecting him to lose soon and I’d be happy to fade him longterm.
Obviously his opponent this week, Brzeski, isn’t a legit talent either though, and already gave up eight takedowns to Williams. Projecting Walker for some wrestling success and finishing equity makes sense.
And that could still lead to a big score. If it’s a first-round finish, it could be optimal. If it’s not a first-round finish, my guess is honestly that Walker won’t smash and he may end up just losing the fight.
Look, Walker is -130 to win ITD. This is low-level HW. An early finish is a pretty reasonable outcome and Walker would have a moderate to high ceiling in that instance. Targeting him moderately or prioritizing him in this range is fine.
I think I am going to lean a bit underweight myself though, hoping Walker projects to be popular. I like the pacing a little more in some other fights below, and there are some interesting pivots in this range too.
Brzeski at 6.8k is honestly a live dog, though I don’t have great expectations and a win would more tie into a Walker failure.
So in terms of priority, I won’t be high on Brzeski and with just a few lineups, he’d be fine to remove from your player pool.
With a large portfolio though, Brzeski is a fine punt. He’s only +475 to win ITD but that’s in part because Walker has never lost. What does a Walker loss look like? I think it could come by knockout.
Brzeski has already landed 116 sig. strikes in a UFC fight before, and he’s more experienced of the two. If he can survive the first half of the fight, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take over and hurt Walker.
At 6.8k with a low public ownership, Brzeski won’t rate out as an awesome target, nor do I consider him one. But he’s deserving of some consideration if you have a large portfolio, and perhaps has more sneaky upside compared to his metrics.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Walker by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Trevor Peek vs. Charlie Campbell
Fight Odds: Campbell -181, Peek +155
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Campbell 9k, Peek 7.2k
Weight Class: 155
We can always expect some wild action when Trevor Peek steps into the Octagon, and I think he will have a willing dance partner in front of him with Charlie Campbell this weekend.
Peek has never met a punch that he wasn’t willing to eat with his chin, which is what has already made him a fan-favorite through his short UFC career. He’s known for brawling with most of his opponents, life or death style, and he’s done very well to outlast the majority of them.
He’s now 9-1 professionally with eight of those wins coming by knockout, and the general expectation is that he’ll need early damage to have continued success at the UFC level.
The problem, unfortunately for Peek, is that he doesn’t really carry much of a technical base. It’s why he doesn’t really have the option to stand on the outside and point fight, or grapple, control his opponents and look to smoothly transition to the back. Instead, he puts his balls on the table and goes to war, and it’s led to some crazy rounds and finishes.
One of those crazy fights was on DWCS, where Peek earned his contract in 2022. He was hurt early and taken down four times, but came back to knock his opponent out in the second round.
In his UFC debut, it was much of the same. Peek was taken down four times in the first round alone, but still came back to land two knockdowns of his own and win by KO.
Since then, he’s actually fought to two decisions, which were the first two of his professional career. Chepe Mariscal beat him up pretty badly and landed another four takedowns to take that win. And then Peek used some of his own pressure and control to beat Mohammad Yahya in October.
I will say that it was a positive to see Peek fight the full distance and win against Yahya, who just couldn’t keep up with Peek’s pace. Perhaps he has learned some lessons along the way, and will fight a bit more composed in the future.
However, I think Yahya proved to be the more cautious party of the two, and that was one primary reason why Peek was able to win rounds. I don’t think decisions will be a consistent path to victory for him moving forward.
And otherwise, it’s just tough to get past his defensive issues. He’s defending strikes at 44 percent, and he’s defending takedowns at 51 percent. He will swing so wildly at times that he’s completely wide open to be countered and knocked out.
Peek has yet to be knocked out in his pro career though, so clearly, he is able to withstand some punishment, and that’s why fans love him.
His next challenge will be against Charlie Campbell, who has been in some crazy matchups of his own.
The most memorable one was on DWCS where Campbell fought Chris Duncan, and Campbell had him dead to rights early, and was swarming for the finish. But Duncan was able to counter back and knock Campbell out cold in those final exchanges.
Campbell eventually found his way back to the UFC and made his debut in September, knocking out Alex Reyes in the first round. He’s now 8-2 professionally with six wins by knockout, and I consider boxing to be his primary skill set.
The issue with Campbell is just that he hasn’t fought the best competition, and the majority of his wins have come early in fights.
He seems like a technically proficient boxer, with some speed and power in his hands, but I’m unsure how much success he will have if he’s not knocking guys out early. His last six fights have all ended within the first seven minutes, and I find it more difficult to trust him in extended matchups.
We also haven’t seen a ton of Campbell on the mat, offensively or defensively. He supposedly comes from a wrestling background but hasn’t used it much. He’s been taken down a couple times on the regionals and my guess is if anything, grappling is probably a liability for him at the UFC level.
However, he’s also competed in grappling matches recently and won, though I wasn’t particularly impressed by them. I do think he trains BJJ and in terms of this matchup, Campbell probably has enough skills to compete, but I’m unsure whether he will ever use his grappling proactively at this level.
Regardless, it seems unnecessary to dive deep into the technical aspect here because the most likely scenario is that we see these guys slug it out until someone gets hurt.
Peek is always willing to engage, and based on what I’ve seen from Campbell, he is too.
I do rate Campbell as the more technical party of the two though, and he should be a little faster. Given how hittable Peek is, I think it’s pretty likely Campbell connects here, and potentially hurts Peek.
But considering Peek has never been KOd in his pro career, perhaps he just continues to survive and mount pressure in return. If that’s the case, it’s hard to have much faith that Campbell’s chin will hold up.
Either fighter could attempt takedowns, but my guess is that neither fighter will be able to control the other while fresh, and more dominant positions could be earned down the stretch if one of the sides is hurt or tired.
I potentially want to give that advantage to Campbell because I know Peek’s defensive wrestling is terrible. He’s survived a lot of ground exchanges though so like I said, it’s hard to project Campbell to have much success even if he’s able to get on top of Peek.
Ultimately, this is a very high-variance matchup given the willingness for both sides to brawl, but I’m very confident that Peek’s defensive issues will catch up to him in the long run, and so I feel the need to side with Campbell in this spot.
—
On DraftKings, I’m definitely interested in this matchup based on the projected pace and lack of defense.
Campbell is priced up to 9k which is a bit tricky, but I think the safest answer is to play him moderately.
My concern is that Peek has never been knocked out, so relying on that early outcome from Campbell at a high percentage feels a bit risky. Plus, there’s no guarantee he chooses to grapple, and could fall very much into the boom or bust category.
It’s also interesting to see the odds move this week toward Peek, where Campbell is now down to -181 on the betting line. That could mean he gets a bit overlooked, priced between Allen and Bahamondes. However, he’s coming off a 117-point KO in his UFC debut, which could still mean he’ll draw attention and be popular at this price tag, given the matchup.
Campbell also rates out very well for finishing upside with a -125 ITD line and it does feel like in a win, Campbell likely finds a finish. And if there’s any time for him to have some wrestling success, it’s in this spot.
It may be a mess, but Peek is so defensively vulnerable that Campbell feels very likely to produce a lot of impactful offense in a win, and that could score well.
I would feel a bit hesitant to play him heavily at potential chalk, considering the risk if the fight extends. But I do want to target Peek fights generally, and I like some of the tools Campbell has. His upside looks legit in this matchup and his metrics are strong, so ultimately I consider Campbell a very good tournament target this week.
Peek at 7.2k is like the poor man’s version of Nate Landwehr last week, if that even exists.
Relying on him to do anything technically isn’t particularly wise because he doesn’t carry a lot of skills, but he’s absolutely willing to throw bombs at his opponent, even when he’s hurt. He will fight through adversity and fight for your money.
I don’t love him or love this spot, but we’ve already seen Campbell deaded in a fight he was winning. I am not completely confident Campbell can take the punishment.
So the upside of Peek is honestly another first-round KO. That, or a mid-round KO. He’s +215 to win ITD which is very strong, and he already has a 131-point score in the UFC.
I’m a bit worried about Peek being very popular based on his name value and metrics, but I can’t ignore the upside. At worst, he’s a high-upside secondary target that I would mix in for salary savings. At best, he could be prioritized in this bottom range with the extra line value.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Campbell by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Court McGee vs. Alex Morono
Fight Odds: Morono -288, McGee +235
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Morono 9.2k, McGee 7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have always been a bit higher on Alex Morono than the rest of the MMA betting market. I think he has generally proven me right as he has sneakily put together a solid UFC career with 12 UFC wins, including five victories in his last seven appearances.
Morono has some holes in his game though as he is not very athletic or physically strong. He also has weak defensive wrestling, and only defends takedowns at 50 percent. He is a candidate to get stuck in bottom position for stretches as his get-up game is not very strong.
Other than that though, Morono is honestly a pretty solid fighter. The best part of his game is probably his striking. He lands 5.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.17. Those are decent numbers. He also has good cardio and can keep up a steady pace. He landed 176 significant strikes and three takedowns against Rhys McKee without slowing down, so his cardio is pretty trustworthy.
Morono is a competent submission grappler, with a good guillotine, and holds a black belt in BJJ. He has never been submitted in his professional and amateur career which spans 35 fights.
Morono doesn’t really grapple offensively though. He lands 0.34 takedowns per 15 minutes so his takedowns are basically non-existent. In fact, Morono’s first takedown landed in the UFC was against Rhys McKee, which was his 11th UFC fight, where he landed three takedowns. He then landed a takedown against Pettis as well. I don’t really expect him to take anyone down except weak defensive grapplers.
Morono’s durability has cost him before. He was knocked out by Khaos Williams, Niko Price, and Santiago Ponzinibbio. He was also knocked down by Matthew Semelsberger. He has had plenty of fights so he isn’t getting knocked out all the time or anything, but his durability does scare me a bit.
Morono will be taking on Court McGee. McGee is a tough guy and a fairly well-rounded fighter. However, he is just so old now at 39 and has been brutally knocked out in his last two matchups. It is hard to trust him at this point in his career.
McGee’s metrics are actually decent. He lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.68 in return. He is a decent striker, has a good work rate, with solid cardio.
However, I do think McGee is kind of an anti Marlon Vera meaning that he is a guy who has historically underperformed his metrics. You would expect a guy with those type of striking metrics to have a better record than 3-7 in his last 10 fights.
The reason for McGee’s underperformance relative to his striking metrics is simple. McGee doesn’t finish fights and he doesn’t get knockouts. He has not finished a fight since 2010, which has spanned 19 fights. He has also never landed a knockout in his UFC career which has spanned 21 fights.
When you aren’t getting finishes or landing knockdowns, you simply are in danger of never clearly winning fights. You are also just in danger to lose striking rounds if your opponent lands a hard shot. McGee’s lack of finishing ability and power will always be my biggest issue with him. He also has a terrible chin and is randomly getting hurt or knocked out now.
I do think the best part of McGee’s game is his defensive grappling. He is a very underrated wrestler in general. He has never been submitted in his pro career which has spanned 32 fights. He defends takedowns at a decent 69 percent, but he scrambles up very well and is hard to control on the mat.
Sean Brady, who is a good wrestler that generally controls his opponents, only controlled McGee for 42 seconds on two takedowns landed. He completely shut down Ramiz Brahimaj’s grappling as well.
McGee is also a decent offensive wrestler. He is not great, but he is capable. He lands 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and can absolutely ride top position if he tires opponents out.
As far as this matchup goes, I just have to pick Morono because McGee has terrible durability. Morono is pretty aggressive and lands a lot of strikes. McGee just gets hurt on nearly every exchange now. My guess is McGee gets hurt to drop rounds or just gets knocked out at some point in this matchup. It is just really hard to trust McGee’s chin to hold up for 15 straight minutes against anyone at this point.
If McGee’s chin does hold up, I do think he can compete here though. He could probably have some wrestling success, and I do think he can compete on volume with his striking. Perhaps he can test the suspect durability of Morono as well. However, McGee just has no power or durability at this point and is the older fighter in this matchup. So I have to go with the younger fresher Morono and I think he will probably hurt McGee at some point.
—
On DraftKings, this is a pretty tricky matchup and one I consider to be very high-variance.
The main problem with the fight is that both guys have awful durability. Obviously McGee’s durability appears worse given his age and recent form, but Morono is known for being deaded as well, and he’s been knocked down in two of his past four fights.
Neither of these guys project as elite knockout artists either. McGee has never done it in the UFC and Morono only has a couple of KOs.
So, I think you can make the case that based on the offensive history of both, it’s not a fight worth targeting, as neither side is particularly reliable to win by KO. The odds for this fight to end ITD are only -105.
OR, you can make the case that this fight is a great one to end ITD and that the odds are just wrong. Someone has been knocked down in seven of McGee’s last eight fights. Both fighters are willing to strike at a high pace, and both have poor durability.
I don’t have the answer unfortunately, but I sort of lean toward the latter. It’s just really hard to be sure that these fighters can take damage. If we expected to see slow paced striking or wrestling, I might shy away. But these two probably bang it out on the feet.
Morono is priced at 9.2k and his upside should be dependent on that knockout. He’s only +110 to win ITD, and doesn’t have an elite history of upside, but this is a great matchup for him to achieve that on paper.
If the public was going to be super heavy on Morono here, I would probably be cautious. But with lots of ownership projected to go to Walker, Campbell, Bahamondes and Allen, I’m not sold Morono becomes the chalk.
He’s not a play I’m supremely confident in but I definitely think there’s an upside case to be made and he’s someone I’d consider being overweight on in large fields if it seems like the public will be cautious based on metrics alone.
McGee at 7k is probably a stretch, and probably not worth considering for a large percentage of lineups.
He’s obviously the big underdog of the two, and form and durability are major questions. If he does simply stay conscious though, this could be a competitive fight. And we’ve already noted the durability questions on Morono as well.
McGee is only +930 to win ITD though, so it feels dumb to even suggest he has KO equity in this spot. He might have 2-3 takedown upside though, which gives him a decent floor.
Idk. If McGee wins, I do think it comes from a lot of striking activity, mild wrestling activity, and potentially a knockdown. His upside seems reasonable to me and he should be very low owned.
But like I said, this is more of a stretch play. Not someone you would prioritize with just a few lineups, and not a fighter you should have high expectations for.
Using a bit of him in large fields for salary relief purposes is viable, but there is a large tier of fighters priced right above him who have considerably more win equity and I’d rather put my money there.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Morono by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Norma Dumont vs. Germaine de Randamie
Fight Odds: Dumont -144, de Randamie +122
Odds to Finish: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Dumont 8.6k, de Randamie 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have been wondering for a long time where Germaine de Randamie has been.
We haven’t seen her in the cage since she finished Julianna Pena back in October of 2020. She had a long layoff because she gave birth to a son. It will be interesting to see how she looks this weekend when she takes on the streaking Norma Dumont.
I have always respected GDR. She has a world class kickboxing background, and it shows in her fights. She is very skilled and experienced as a kickboxer. She only lands 2.72 significant strikes per minute but she lands super hard, so it makes up for her lack of volume at times. She has serious power and is one of the heavier hitters in all of WMMA.
GDR also has incredible defense and only absorbs 2.14 significant strikes per minute, and her metrics check out with a 65 percent defensive rate. In any striking fight, GDR is live to win and it is hard to favor anyone over her on the feet.
GDR also just always seems to win fights. In the last 12 years, GDR is 8-2 with her two losses both coming against WMMA GOAT Amanda Nunes. That is just super impressive and GDR has wins over top fighters like Julianna Pena, Raquel Pennington, Holly Holm, and Larissa Pacheco. Obviously, GDR hasn’t been very active in recent years and hasn’t fought in over three years, but it just shows that she has been a tough out for everyone.
GDR doesn’t offensively wrestle at all even though she did win by a super random guillotine against Pena. GDR has never even landed a takedown in her strikeforce or UFC career.
GDR has decent TDD at 69 percent and I consider her baseline TDD pretty strong as she is a very physically strong woman. She is 5’9” and is very muscular. The only people who have been able to take her down in the UFC are Julianna Pena and Amanda Nunes who both are tenacious wrestlers. I generally consider GDR very difficult to take down. Raquel Pennington went 0/8 on takedowns against her.
GDR isn’t great off her back though. I don’t love her get-ups and she can get stuck in bottom position.
The main question mark with GDR is just her current form. She is nearly 40 years old now and just gave birth. It is hard to expect her to be in her physical prime at this point. However, I still expect her to be a hard hitter and a skilled defensive kickboxer. Maybe she won’t look her best but I do think she will still present danger to most opponents.
GDR will be taking on Norma Dumont. Dumont is a decent fighter and has won six of her last seven fights. She is best as a technical striker. She lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.99 in return. She defends strikes at a fantastic 66 percent.
She has pretty good striking metrics. She comes from a striking background and you see it in her game. She has decent hands and leg kicks. She can also control range pretty well. She can outstrike girls at this weight class.
Dumont can also land some takedowns here and there against weak grapplers. She lands 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes.
The main issue with Dumont is that she doesn’t always dominate rounds as she doesn’t put up a ton of aggregate offense. She also can be clinched against the cage and neutralized which is why she lost to Macy Chiasson. She defends takedowns at 72 percent, and I consider her defensive wrestling competent. However, she doesn’t have the best get-up game when she is actually grounded and good grapplers can take advantage of her.
This is a tough matchup to analyze as GDR’s current form is a major unknown. Even if GDR looks declined, I really think it is reasonable to favor her on the feet here. GDR is just bigger and more physical than Dumont, and hits harder as well. GDR just comes from such an advanced striking background. GDR is also more skillful in the clinch as well.
Perhaps GDR just shows up in awful form and looks slow and Dumont just pieces her up by being the more active and youthful fighter. That may happen. I also think Dumont could have grappling success if she catches a kick or lands a takedown and gets top position here. GDR is still tough to take down though.
I don’t know though man, I would stay far away from Dumont from a betting perspective this weekend. Prime GDR could handle Dumont in my opinion and if GDR just shows up looking okay, I think she is probably the better striker here and not an easy person to take down. This is BY FAR the best striker Dumont has faced in the UFC and it isn’t even close. Dumont has fought AES, Spencer, Ladd, Wolf, and Chandler. Those are easy fights to pad your striking metrics.
Furthermore, I think GDR is more likely to win by knockout here. Dumont isn’t a huge hitter and GDR has serious KO power. Dumont was knocked out by the only heavy hitter she has ever fought in Megan Anderson. I really don’t think it is unreasonable for GDR to hurt her. This is a massive step up for Dumont as far as an opponent with power goes. I am going to pick GDR here as she very well may end up looking like a favorite.
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On DraftKings, this is probably one of my least favorite fights on the slate.
Both women have elite defensive metrics, and typically fight at a slow pace. The odds for this fight to end by decision are -275, and I don’t see either fighter producing a ton of offense in a decision.
Dumont is priced at 8.6k and I think wrestling equity + form is the only real case to make for her. In striking exchanges, we shouldn’t expect much volume or damage.
However, she could wrestle some. GDR may not be in great form, and 2-3 takedowns from Dumont is within reason. Dumont has never won ITD in the UFC though, and she’s +400 to win ITD here.
My only hesitation is that despite all this, Dumont has scored reasonably well in some decision wins, with totals of 90, 92 and 103. She had multiple takedowns in all three fights, and lots of control. Theoretically, that’s the most likely way she beats GDR here, and so I’m not fully willing to say she’s an outright fade.
It is possible that the fight is ugly, but Dumont lands three takedowns, controls GDR for many minutes and tops 90 points. That’s how she could be optimal. She’s also failed to reach 70 points in decision wins, so her floor/ceiling combination is still quite low.
I expect Dumont to be very low owned this week so she’s clearly in the contrarian category. I don’t expect to have much exposure to her personally with a limited portfolio, but a small sprinkle with a large portfolio is viable for uniqueness purposes only.
GDR is priced at 7.6k and she’ll need a knockout to have a realistic chance at the optimal lineup.
In her decision wins, GDR is scoring awfully, with totals of 59 and 63. She won’t wrestle and won’t land many strikes.
It’s extremely difficult for me to recommend real exposure to her because of this.
GDR is +415 to win ITD, which isn’t great. The only real argument on her side is that Dumont was KOd in her UFC debut by a big girl, and she was also dropped by Karol Rosa.
Possibly GDR could hurt her. Again, I expect her to be quite low owned though and she’ll fall more into the contrarian category.
It’s really difficult to make an investment here outside of a sprinkle in large fields, and I will expect to be quite low on both sides.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: de Randamie by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Victor Hugo vs. Pedro Falcao
Fight Odds: Hugo -130, Falcao +110
Odds to Finish: Over 1.5 -185
DraftKings Salaries: Hugo 8.2k, Falcao 8k
Weight Class: 135
This matchup was only announced on Wednesday, after the UFC called up Pedro Falcao to step in and face Victor Hugo, who was previously scheduled to fight Alatengheili for his promotional debut.
And honestly, this is a super intriguing fight. Both fighters are journeymen with extensive professional careers, and both are 31 years old.
This isn’t the case where we have two green, young, inexperienced fighters who are going to make a ton of mistakes. These are two legit talents and I was pretty impressed by both watching tape, which is extremely rare.
Hugo is 24-4 out of Astra Fight team, and he earned a contract on DWCS in October, submitting his opponent in the second round.
Hugo has fought all over the world, and his experience will surely help him at the UFC level. He’s earned eight wins by knockout, nine by submission and seven by decision, which is a really strong fight tree.
He’s quite well-rounded too. He’s somewhat dangerous standing, and he tends to be aggressive, throwing a good amount of kicks. He’s a very strong wrestler, which is probably what impressed me most. And then he has a tricky leg lock game, which has contributed to many of his submission wins.
I’m not sure Hugo has an elite ceiling, but I think he can win fights in multiple areas, and he should be able to beat the weaker grapplers in this division.
Pedro Falcao is 16-3 professionally out of Nova Uniao, and he ties to Jose Aldo and BJ Penn. He’s been around forever, and he’s been a pro since 2021.
He too won on DWCS in 2021 but was not awarded a contract, and instead had to fight a couple more times on the regional scene. There is limited tape on Falcao, and he’s only fought one pro MMA fight since that win in 2021, but I’ve liked what I’ve seen.
Falcao reminds me of Raphael Assunaco, which is high praise. He’s a very good wrestler and grappler, and a high-level black belt in jiu-jitsu.
The majority of success I’ve seen Falcao have is on the mat. He has good singles and doubles from the outside, and he’s capable of working against the cage too. He’s not the most aggressive ground-and-pound guy, or submission grappler, but he can take the back and fish for the RNC.
I would say Falcao is more control based than finishing based, but his fight tree is spread out too and he did win by TKO on DWCS. He has six wins by TKO, five by submission and five by decision.
Falcao is probably weakest standing, and he looks to be pretty low-volume to me, which is certainly a concern. He is fine disengaging though, and backing up against the cage, letting his opponent pressure. That’s likely what will happen here.
It’s not my favorite style because volume wins fights, and I don’t think Falcao is going to easily win striking exchanges in the UFC. He could even be somewhat of a liability. But he’s not the type to get dominated standing, he just may be the type to force minimal exchanges and slow the pace down.
I’ve seen him eat a couple of flush knees in his most recent fight, and he ate them just fine, so his durability seems legit.
His wrestling is really strong though, and processed. I think he can win with it at this level, assuming his form is OK, which is up for debate.
If Falcao was on a full camp, I would be picking him to win for sure. Even on five-days notice, I may still pick him to win, which says a lot about how I felt about his wrestling.
I do think Hugo looks to be a little bit more dangerous, but he’s a little more flashy and that does worry me a bit. The leg lock game is great on the regionals, but I don’t love it at the UFC level because you can put yourself on the bottom, and you’re just less likely to finish the submissions.
It’s possible he could still submit Falcao, but I doubt it. And I think Hugo could get himself in trouble against a more wrestling focused, control focused grappler in Falaco, who will be happy to sit on top of Hugo and pound him out if Hugo is diving on legs.
Both guys are really good wrestlers though, honestly. I’m not totally sure how those exchanges will play out. I think both guys can take the other down. Of the two, I think Hugo will struggle to hold Falcao down, and he might just chase leg locks. I could see Falcao holding Hugo down, but I’m unsure how dominant he will be from top position.
In striking exchanges, I do favor Hugo. He can kick so he should be able to attack from longer ranges. He might be more active in general and hit a little harder. I would lean toward him of the two to score a knockdown.
And obviously, Hugo was on a full camp, so it’s possible his cardio is significantly better down the stretch. Picking Hugo for this reason alone is fine, and it could be the most important factor with Falcao not being super active lately.
While Falcao is fresh though, I do think there’s a good chance he can outwrestle Hugo. The leg lock thing really has me concerned and makes me want to lean toward the more processed guy.
Conversely, Hugo limiting the wrestling, and outstriking Falcao a bit seems very possible as well.
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On DraftKings, Hugo was originally priced at 8.2k, and normally this is a spot where we’d see a huge value, but won’t be the case, and Falcao was slotted in at 8k.
I could see this fight playing out several different ways, and not all of them are positives from a fantasy perspective.
The simple fact that because we have two good wrestlers means that we could see them neutralize each, and kill off the upside of both. Or, Falcao could choose to fight cautiously and disengage early, which would also be limiting.
The upside case for Hugo would likely come from an early finish, if perhaps Falcao gets tired very quickly. The upside case for Falcao would be with his wrestling.
I think I am most intrigued by Falcao, because he may need wrestling and control to win. I’m not certain he will win easily but I am willing to play him at 8k given the upside.
ITD odds are not out yet but the fight will project to extend a while, and I’m not expecting elite metrics here. That means Falcao won’t rate out particularly well.
Given he’s coming in on short notice, I’m hoping he won’t be played too much. That would potentially mean a good opportunity to invest, though I still think targeting him cautiously is the right call because of the unknowns.
Hugo at 8.2k may have more finishing equity, and targeting him simply for the late-notice isn’t a terrible idea. There is some chance Falcao just doesn’t have the cardio to go past a round (though I am hopeful he’ll be fine).
Otherwise, I don’t love him. I think Falcao will be very tough to wrestle, and I’m not sure there will be much striking. Hugo would be a standard boom or bust option otherwise and I tend to lean toward him busting from a fantasy perspective.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Falcao by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Piera Rodriguez vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -130, Calvillo +113
Odds to Finish: +240
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.4k, Calvillo 7.8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Cynthia Calvillo has had an interesting run in the UFC as she started out hot but has really struggled in the last three years, and is riding a five-fight skid. She’ll be taking her 2nd consecutive fight down at 115lbs – she’s 6-6-1 in the UFC and 9-6-1 as a pro. Piera Rodriguez is a Contender Series alum who won her first couple of UFC fights but is looking to rebound from her first pro loss last year – she’s 2-1 in the UFC and 9-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Calvillo is a wrestler/grappler by base, but her striking has improved in her time in the UFC. She lands 4.41 sig. strikes per minute at 38% utilizing some footwork, while possessing decent hand speed and combo striking. Defensively, she eats 4.12 sig. strikes per minute but carries a 64% defensive rate.
Calvillo was able to find more evident success in the earlier portions of her run against lesser levels of competition, but has struggled more in recent years when fighting a better brand of striker in some different capacities.
Some of those capacities include the clinch thai boxing of Rodriguez, the range-based weapons of Chookgian, the pressure of Andrade, the pressure thai boxing of Lee, range-based weapons of Nunes and the pressure boxing of Godinez.
Although she was still competitive with Nunes and Godinez the last two times out and actually out landed them on significant strikes. But she looked good against Eye, Casey and Botelho as well.
In the defense of Calvillo, the girls who have ultimately beaten her on the feet are all upper tier strikers and top 15 level girls, so she’s not getting beat by bums. It’s just the power and pressure optics that can often go against her even if she’s being effective at range.
Overall, people often shit on Calvillo’s striking but it really isn’t bad. She just struggles to assert herself minute to minute and against upper tier talents.
Rodriguez isn’t the tallest girl in the world, but she is dense for 115 pounds. The best way to describe her stand up is as a technical brawler.
She’ll mix in some good outside kicks, but the majority of her work comes in the pocket as she’s got some heavy hooks and will dig the body well.
In general, she’s shown aggressive tendencies at times and has finished five of her nine pro wins via strikes, so she has some pop for the division.
My issues with her primarily come defensively as she is susceptible to counter shots in her flurries, has some struggles with pressure and largely relies on her chin as her primary line of defense – there’s little head movement in her game.
The distance exchanges she had in her fight on DWCS against Machado were pretty competitive.
She dropped rounds standing to a BJJ girl in LFA – didn’t exactly blow Hansen out of the water at distance – the Hughes exchanges were competitive as well but did land the bigger shots. She’s been stung a few times but to her credit, she’s proven very durable historically.
The second issue is that despite her largely having good optics and being the one coming forward, her pacing round to round can be very inconsistent.
Her distance ratio in her last four fights is essentially even, so she’s getting hit as much as she’s landing.
Overall, she brings some physicality to the weight class, but she also hasn’t fought many good strikers, which needs to be noted.
How it plays out: The stand up in all likelihood is competitive here. Rodriguez has shown pressure/optical components that I feel could give some issues to Calvillo but once again, her pacing has been inconsistent. What’s interesting on the Calvillo side is that Rodriguez will be one of the shorter fighters she’s fought and I actually think Calvillo is probably the better technical striker. But I have similar concerns to past fights where she may be competitive if not even ahead on the numbers, but may also just be eating the bigger strikes.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Calvillo comes from a wrestling background where she lands 1.8 TDs per 15 minutes at 44%. She reps a BJJ brown belt, has three submission wins in the UFC and has shown to win minutes on the mat to boot when she really pursues.
The issue more so comes in her ability to consistently pursue and push TDs in recent years. But she can be strong from top position not only in terms of positional control, but she will look to pass, land strikes, take backs and threaten subs.
We saw her 10-8 Rodriguez, outwrestle Eye, Gonzalez, Botelho and Cooper in the past.
She fought Esparza a handful of years back who’s a strong wrestler and Esparza was only able to get her down two times, but got essentially no control time. Calvillo actually got the better of Esparza on the mat with four minutes of control, which is pretty impressive.
So she’s been pretty spot on defensively throughout her UFC run as she’s stuffing at 78% and has only conceded 1% of her overall fight time being wrestled or clinched, so she’s got the better of the ground exchanges in all of her UFC fights that have involved the floor but to varying degrees.
Overall, Calvillo is a good wrestler/grappler for the division, but I’d like to see her get back to that tenaciousness that she showed earlier in her run.
Rodriguez is a BJJ purple belt who’s picked and chosen her shots of when to wrestle.
We did see her wrestle more proactively against Machado where she went 3/13 on TDs, racking up four minutes of control time – the ground and cage control of Rodriguez was the primary component of her winning that fight.
In her fights with Hracho and Gotsyk, she got into top position in those fights, but the girls also pulled guard multiple times a piece. Very similarly against Hansen & Hughes, it was her accruing some top time and cage control ultimately edging her 2 rounds.
Defensively, she has been taken down a few times regionally but has shown a decent get-up game and general defensive responsibility on the ground in terms of submission defense, albeit in a smaller sample there.
I still don’t like how easy it has been for some girls to get in on her hips though and we did see Hansen take the 1st from her via wrestling.
We also saw Gotsyk end the 4th round on top of Rodriguez with her guard passed.
Most recently, she got audited on the floor by Robertson who went 2/3 on TDs and eventually submitted her in the 2nd. In Rodriguez’s defense, Robertson has an elite top game and she did put up resistance on the floor.
Overall, she’s a physical girl and capable wrestler but she isn’t a great control wrestler and hasn’t posed much of an offensive submission threat.
How it plays out: Despite Rodriguez finding floor success in many of her outings, I think the bulk of ground equity is on the Calvillo side here. If Carla Esparza can’t outwrestle Calvillo and Rodriguez can’t hold Sam Hughes down, I highly doubt Rodriguez is going to realize much success on Calvillo. Calvillo isn’t Gillian Robertson, but her overall ground game is still pretty good (Calvillo actually has a win over Robertson back in the day, fun fact). The question more so comes to whether she is going to pursue takedowns with a higher amount of consistency, which is questionable. If she does though, in a fight that projects to have tighter striking rounds, that could be the ultimate decider here.
It’s hard to have faith in 36-year-old Cynthia Calvillo riding a five-fight skid on the last fight of her contract. But this is do or die for her. She’s back at her rightful weight class, in a step down in competition and has a winnable fight with the correct approach. Rodriguez has lost at least a round in all five of her last fights so it’s not like she’s going out here and beating these girls pillar to post who aren’t as skilled as Calvillo. I’ll take Calvillo for the slight upset.
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On DraftKings, I do not expect too much attention on this matchup as it is -300 to go the distance.
Rodriguez is priced at 8.4k, and I don’t think she’ll be very popular. Her two wins have scored her 80 and 93 points, and this is arguably a tougher matchup against a good wrestler in Calvillo.
Rodriguez is only +440 to win ITD so she’ll rate out horribly. My expectation at this point is that she’ll be owned in the low teens, and will only be a contrarian option.
The best case I can make for her is Calvillo doesn’t always fight smart, and she’s been knocked out a couple of times. Still, it feels like a stretch to commit to a Rodriguez knockout, and I don’t plan on investing much in her this weekend.
Calvillo at 7.8k is the preferred option of the two for her wrestling potential. She is one of my longtime favorite fighters and I’ve capitalized on her several times in her early UFC run. However, she’s just been bad recently and I don’t trust her grappling game anymore, even in the sense of her actually pursuing takedowns.
Still, it’s clearly the best chance for her to win. Rodriguez was just submitted so it’s not impossible Calvillo could find the back and fish for a RNC. She is only +415 to win ITD and given her loss streak, I bet she is very low owned as well.
There are plenty of live underdogs on this slate so it doesn’t really make sense to prioritize Calvillo, but she has a decent floor in a win. She’s topped 100 points a few times on DK.
I suppose I would consider her a lower end secondary option this week, and someone who probably has more fantasy potential than she’ll get credit for. Her inconsistency is hard to stomach though, and paying down more often seems like a fair decision.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Calvillo by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Dan Argueta vs. Jean Matsumoto
Fight Odds: Matsumoto -162, Argueta +140
Odds to Finish: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Matsumoto 8.8k, Argueta 7.4k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun matchup here as the scrappy and aggressive Dan Argueta will be taking on UFC debutant Jean Matsumoto.
I actually like Argueta a bit as a fighter. He is a blue collar and aggressive grappler who likes to push a heavy pace for 15 minutes.
Argueta lands 2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes and pushes for takedowns early and often. I actually think Argueta is an underrated wrestler. He has fought Damon Jackson and Miles Johns in two of his four UFC fights, so his wrestling was reasonably neutralized in those fights, but he absolutely dominated Ronnie Lawrence and Nick Aguirre in his other two UFC fights.
Argueta is just very aggressive and will push his opponents up against the cage and go to work with single and double legs. I also think he is a decent back taker, and he is just a scrappy grappler. He can also work up from bottom if he gets stuck there. I think Argueta can feast off below-average grapplers in the UFC.
I also think he is an underrated submission grappler. He has four submission wins in his career, and should have been credited with a submission win over Ronnie Lawrence.
Argueta isn’t the most technical striker in the world. He lands 2.35 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.90 in return. He is aggressive though and can make opponents uncomfortable. He is also tough as nails and has never been finished in his career.
I just think Argueta will continue to outwrestle the lower tier fighters in this weight class. He is a solid wrestler, a decent submission grappler, and has good cardio and toughness.
Argueta will be taking on UFC newcomer Jean Matsumoto. Matsumoto is a Brazilian fighter who is 14-0 and has generally fought poor competition.
Matsumoto booked his ticket to the UFC by winning a decision on the Contender Series against Kasey Tanner. Matsumoto landed 100 significant strikes and absorbed 99 in that fight. He was rightfully awarded the decision as he landed the more impactful strikes and landed some nasty low kicks.
Matsumoto is kind of a freestyle fighter, but I think he is best as a striker. He is somewhat technical and powerful as a striker. He can put together some okay boxing combinations, has a little power, and has some good low kicks. He also has decent volume.
I still don’t think Matsumoto is all that great on the feet though. He is a bit hittable and slow for my liking, but I do think he can outstrike the low tier fighters in this division.
Matsumoto can also occasionally land takedowns and he has a dangerous guillotine choke. I don’t think he is a great offensive wrestler though, and I think his top game is nonexistent.
I really question the defensive wrestling of Matsumoto as well. I have seen this guy taken down a lot against somewhat weak wrestlers, and I think he may just get dominated with wrestling in the UFC. His TDD isn’t terrible and occasionally he can put together a decent sprawl or threaten with a guillotine. His TDD isn’t good though either, and I have seen him controlled for stretches in fights.
That is why I think Argueta should be the favorite here. Argueta is by far the best wrestler that Matsumoto has faced, and I am quite confident Argueta can and will land takedowns in this matchup. Matsumoto has okay get ups, but I question them and he gives up his back. Argueta may just get a back take here and threaten with a submission or just rack up control time. I really think Argueta could just easily outwrestle Matsumoto and I am leaning towards that happening.
Maybe Matsumoto has better TDD than I am giving him credit for. In that case, he can definitely win this fight as I consider him a more technical striker than Argueta. Maybe Matsumoto lands a stupid guillotine.
Still though, Argueta could just threaten with his aggression on the feet, and I really think this is a big step up for Matsumoto as far as facing a wrestler goes. So I am going to go with Argueta here as I think he is an underrated wrestler who is facing an unproven debuting fighter with questionable defensive wrestling.
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On DraftKings, while I can’t say I’m supremely confident in Argueta winning, I do think he has moderate grappling upside and I think he’s worthy of consideration at 7.4k.
My only real hesitation here is just in that Argueta isn’t a very deep striker, and I think Matsumoto is clearly better than him in that regard. Given the state of MMA, it’s tough to know what judges will think of wrestling and control, versus a few strikes landed on the other side.
If Matsumoto neutralizes the grappling to some regard, and forces stand-up exchanges, he should win.
But he has shown some weakness on the regionals in giving up takedowns and ceding control. Argueta is the best wrestler he will have faced and I do think Argueta can test him on the mat.
For 7.4k, Argueta is a decent salary-saver and one of the underdogs I will likely gravitate toward on this slate. He’s only +450 to win ITD but he if can earn control, Argueta does have submission upside.
It would be fine to prioritize someone else in this range who rates out better for finishing purposes, but Argueta has a clear path to victory on the ground and that generally scores well on DK. He’s a solid secondary target who I will likely aim to be overweight on.
Matsumoto at 8.8k feels overpriced for what my expectation is, and I think he’ll need a KO to contend for the optimal lineup.
He’s +315 to win ITD which is not good, and that’s probably going to detract from the public rostering him this week. Also, Argueta has never been knocked out, so there’s no clear narrative or footage suggesting Matsumoto can easily find a finish.
He should be the superior striker though, and if Argueta is failing on TDs, perhaps he could get beaten up. It wouldn’t be the craziest outcome.
I just think he’ll likely limit exchanges, have some success on the mat, and extend the fight, which will put Matsumoto in danger of busting at this price. I would classify Matsumoto as contrarian this week, but I prefer several other fighters in this range and won’t end up with much exposure here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Argueta by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Dylan Budka vs. Cesar Almeida
Fight Odds: Budka -144, Almeida +125
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Budka 8.5k, Almeida 7.7k
Weight Class: 185
Two newcomers to the UFC, we should have a classic striker vs. grappler matchup here between Dylan Budka and Cesar Almeida.
Budka is the wrestler, and he holds a career record of 7-2, with one win by knockout and two by submission. He’s young in the game at 24 years old, and he won by decision on the Contender Series in September.
Budka has a background in football and other team sports, and despite getting a late start in wrestling, he was awarded a scholarship to Notre Dame college in Ohio. He seems like a very athletic guy and that athleticism and wrestling will be his biggest strength.
Budka is capable of shooting big double legs, and slamming his opponents on the canvas. Or he can back them up into the fence and grab double legs from there.
My issue is that otherwise, Budka’s game is very limited. I’m unsure of his exact credentials in BJJ, but I don’t consider him very good. He’s only been a pro fighter since 2022, and he was submitted in one of his early bouts.
I’ve also seen him taken down in a handful of fights, and he can get stuck on the bottom at times, or even give up his back. It’s a separate but related issue, and one that leads me to not fully trust Budka as a grappler.
It shows in his record too. A dominant wrestler with an athletic base should have more than three finishes out of seven victories. He hasn’t been able to dominate poor regional competition, and it feels very unlikely he can dominate UFC level competition.
But his pure wrestling is fine. He can land takedowns. I just do not trust his ability to attack relentlessly from there, or find a submission. I also think he’s in danger of getting taken down himself, and getting submitted.
On the feet, Budka is mediocre at best. He can throw with power, but he uses a lot of energy and I wouldn’t be very trusting of his volume or defense over a long period of time.
Realistically, Budka’s best chance to win is to grind out his opponents. I wish there was more threat with his grappling style because in this current state of MMA, he doesn’t do enough damage for me to be comfortable.
He’ll be taking on Cesar Almeida, who is 4-0 professionally at age 36, and has an extensive kickboxing background.
He actually beat Alex Pereira (once out of three times) in kickboxing, and he holds more than 50 pro kickboxing bouts, which shows the degree of his skills.
But as we know, MMA is a different game.
I honestly wish Almeida had more of a BJJ background because that might make me favor him outright in this matchup. Although he’s surely the superior striker here, it feels unlikely that he can stop takedowns or keep Budka off of him in the clinch.
Almeida has only really fought scrubs in MMA too. He knocked out each of his first three regional opponents, and then had a decent test on DWCS. He actually won that fight by decision, but it wasn’t the best performance.
Almeida got taken down a couple of times and his defensive wrestling does not look good. He actually scrambled free and even ended up on top at one point, but I doubt he can defend takedowns at this level.
I’m sure his striking is technically strong, but I haven’t seen a ton of it in MMA. He’ll surely be capable of damage, and I’d assume in a striking based matchup he can win with volume as well.
But the guy is 36 years old, which is ancient for making your debut in the UFC, and I don’t know how he will hold up physically.
Still, should he defend takedowns or force stand up exchanges, Almeida should win. Budka hasn’t been hurt badly from what I’ve seen, but that outcome wouldn’t shock me. I really want to fade Budka in the long run because I am super skeptical of his grappling game.
However, I feel I have to lean toward him in this matchup because he should be at a major advantage in that department, and projects for 3-5 takedowns landed over 15 minutes, if not more. I’ve seen him go five rounds on the regional scene, so his cardio is alright.
Maybe control isn’t enough and he’ll lose an ugly, slow-paced fight where Almeida lands a few more strikes, but this is about as good of a matchup as Budka can get for his style.
I’ll pick him to earn lots of control throughout the feet and win by decision, and hopefully there’s a more juicy spot to fade him in the future.
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On DraftKings, Budka is priced up to 8.5k which is more expensive than I’d like to pay, despite the wrestling base.
I’m honestly just nervous he can’t do anything with his takedowns because he’s not skilled enough. He only landed two takedowns and 64 total strikes on DWCS, which would only amount to like 70 DraftKings points.
Based on what I’ve seen from his style, I don’t really think that’s an outlier. I don’t think he has insane takedown volume, and he’s not the type to land tons of strikes on the mat unless he’s in a super dominant position.
He can definitely beat up and finish super weak grapplers, but at the UFC level I don’t know if there are many of those types.
Conversely, if Budka wins, it should come from takedowns and control, which gives him a strong floor in a win. He is +240 to win ITD which is decent, and Almeida doesn’t look particularly good on the mat.
I won’t be stunned if Budka lands four takedowns here, with more strikes and more control that pushes him closer to the 90 point mark. Perhaps there’s even more upside than that based on his style.
So at 8.5k, I think Budka is fine. There are scenarios in which he could exceed value, and I am a fan of targeting wrestlers in general. I just don’t think Budka’s upside is as strong as a typical wrestler in this type of situation, and I am fearful of blindly overrating him based on this skill set alone.
I will likely use him as a secondary target but I won’t aim to be much heavier than the field.
Almeida at 7.7k doesn’t particularly excite me because he doesn’t project to wrestle at all and he could be held down for the whole fight.
I wish he had more of a grappling base because then I would consider targeting him for submission purposes, or reversals, etc. Instead, I feel I have to categorize him as more of a boom or bust knockout type, given his style and the matchup.
He is +315 to win ITD, which is fine, but not outstanding. I could see that outcome coming to fruition but it’s hard to project at a high rate. There’s just a very low floor here, and mediocre skills.
But if he keeps the fight upright, he can win, and he can maybe win by KO. If you want to target some of Almeida for that purpose, I think that’s fine.
I will likely lean against it with a smaller portfolio and target better matchups, but with a larger portfolio he would be a lower-end mix-in for me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Budka by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Nora Cornolle vs. Melissa Mullins
Fight Odds: Mullins -338, Cornolle +270
Odds to Finish: +175
DraftKings Salaries: Mullins 9.3k, Cornolle 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Melissa Mullins is a multi-fight vet of the French regional promotion, Ares FC and made good on her UFC debut back in October – she’s 6-0 as a pro. Nora Cornolle is a multi-fight vet of the Middle Eastern promotion, UAE Warriors who also made good on her UFC debut last year – she’s 7-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Mullins comes from a grappling background, but we’ve seen a fair amount of her standing as well.
The best way I’d classify her stand up is as serviceable. She doesn’t throw many kicks or flashy techniques but does the basics decent in keeping to straight punches and an okay work rate.
The issue is more so her defense as there isn’t much head movement or footwork in her game, allowing her to be hit clean with straight shots back. As a result, she’s gotten busted up in her last two fights against Zheleznyakova and Alekseeva.
Alekseeva actually dropped her in the 1st round but in looking at the overall body of work minus blood optics, Mullins won the overall exchanges to the head 47 to 23, and rocked Alekseeva a few times herself.
Mullins has got the better of the striking back in her earlier regional fights as well.
The Zheleznyakova striking performance is a bit more forgivable as Zheleznyakova is a good striker in relation to the current level.
Overall though, the striking is where she needs the most work but she still is a tough girl who can still compete, if not win on the feet at the lower tiers of the UFC.
Cornolle comes from a muay thai background where she’s won titles in her native France and in other organizations, prior to making the move to MMA a few years back. She fights like a traditional thai fighter where there isn’t a ton of general circling or lateral movement.
I think her striking has looked crisper in some recent fights where she’s got some pop, but it primarily consists of straights and kicks at space. She is a dense girl, but her volume has been on the lower end in distance exchanges.
Her primary work is within the clinch as she’s not particularly difficult to close distance on, and she’s fine to work framing elbows and knees from those positions to which she has been effective throughout her career and has hurt a few girls to boot.
But her defense is largely non-existent as her head rarely comes off the center line and we saw her hurt badly multiple times in her pro debut against Cavalcanti. She’s gotten cracked in a few other spots since but has eaten those shots well.
Overall, she’s pretty meh as a striker to me but does have the ability to outstrike lower-level girls in the UFC.
How it plays out: The striking is relatively competitive here as Cornolle’s got some more sting on her shots and is a more diverse girl on the feet with kicks and knees, but Mullins work rate is probably better and it’s not difficult to hit Cornolle either, so she should compete at a bare minimum barring getting rocked or KO’d.
The wrestling/grappling component:
As noted, Mullins comes from a grappling background where she holds a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and most recently won the IBJJF No-Gi Worlds this past year. As per that, her best work in her shorter MMA career has been done on the floor.
She’s not a great wrestler but she’s decent from the body lock and can drag girls down against the fence.
I’d say her general top game and transitional grappling is the best part of her game though, as she’s generally very strong from top positions where she’s got good passing and will throw GNP. It hasn’t always translated into finishes for her, but she’s dominated all the grappling sequences in her fights.
Defensively, she’s gotten thrown a few times but does a good job working back up or just getting on top/taking the back from there.
She’s also been able to stuff opponent TDAs to then also work into top positions.
Overall, Mullins isn’t the highest level BJJ girl we’ve seen come in, but she’s going to have clear ground advantages over probably all the girls she fights at the lower levels – she may run into some more troubles though if/when she starts climbing the ranks.
Despite the thai background of Cornolle, we’ve seen a healthy amount of ground time in her fights.
Her TDD isn’t very good unless she’s really able to establish those thai positions, but she has shown some offensive upside where she hit TDs from the clinch. She’s generally been stronger from top positions and will be heavy with GNP, and will look to pass the guard, having one RNC on her record as well.
It was three fights ago where she was able to use an armbar attempt from bottom to get on top and eventually finish.
We also saw her reverse position on Edwards multiple times in the last fight, but she still lost in the overall wrestling, getting taken down five times on eight attempts while conceding nearly nine minutes of control time in that fight – Edwards also got to her back twice.
So despite some of the offense she was able to mount, getting largely outwrestled by Joselyne Edwards is a really bad look and she probably shouldn’t have won that fight.
Overall, she can get the better of girls with limited ground games but she’s really going to struggle with even moderately competent girls at a UFC level on the floor.
How it plays out: Mullins really shouldn’t have much issue here. If Edwards can take Cornolle down five times, who’s a far inferior wrestler/grappler to Mullins, Mullins should realize a lot of success. As noted, some of Cornolle’s past success has come from her being able to reverse or scramble out of positions, I don’t see that happening here with Mullins, who has the best top game of any girl she’s fought by far. Mullins is live to finish.
Weird matchup between two girls that got later starts to their MMA careers, now in their 30s as new UFC fighters. I don’t think Mullins is a world beater, but I think she can compete if not win on the feet and the ground isn’t close here with a large advantage going to Mullins. I also think Mullins has the superior cardio as we’ve seen Cornolle get tired in multiple extended fights before, and this one should have a healthy amount of grappling which won’t help. Mullins via latter ground stoppage is the pick.
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On DraftKings, Mullins is priced up to 9.3k and is potentially one of the more interesting contrarian targets on this slate.
She only scored 73 points in her UFC debut, and she’s priced right next to Walker who is -140 to win ITD, while Mullins is only +235 to win ITD. She didn’t even land takedowns in her UFC debut, so there’s not obvious wrestling upside here based on stats alone.
Plus, Bahamondes, Morono, Campbell and Allen should all draw attention below Mullins. Really, it’s possible that despite a decent matchup and strong odds to win, Mullins gets largely ignored in this range.
I can’t really blame people for that because I want exposure to the majority of fighters I named. There are certainly others with more early win equity. Mullins just feels too expensive.
Mullins may have a distinct ground advantage though, against an opponent who was just taken down five times by a mediocre fighter in Edwards. If Mullins can get on top of Cornolle, perhaps she does have domination upside.
I haven’t seen enough within her MMA career for me to be super confident in Mullin’s grappling, but her winning IBJJF No-Gi worlds is pretty impressive.
Of course, spreading your exposure out through this range is fine. Prioritizing someone like Walker or Campbell is fine. Mullins could be very sneaky though, and she may have the best grappling equity of this entire top range.
I won’t force a ton of Mullins in but I would like some exposure to her and if she projects to be low owned, she’s arguably an elite contrarian target if you want to be a bit unique in this range.
Cornolle at 6.9k doesn’t interest me a whole lot. The mid and lower 7ks have plenty of live underdogs and several with upside. So I don’t feel the need to chase Cornolle here, who doesn’t have much grappling equity and is +600 to win ITD.
I suppose it’s possible she could land a big strike and hurt Mullins, but that’s not enough reason for me to make any real investment here. With a limited portfolio, I would probably consider fading Cornolle outright. With a large portfolio, she’s just a low-end punt play and you’re hoping for some WMMA variance to lead to a random finish.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mullins by Decision (Confidence=Medium)