UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales (5/17/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
Fight Odds: Morales -857, Burns +568
Odds to Finish: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Morales 9.7k, Burns 6.5k
Weight Class: 170
As the UFC tries to build the next crop of welterweight contenders, Michael Morales will have the opportunity to jump into the title picture with a win over veteran Gilbert Burns.
Morales is 17-0 professionally at age 25, and he’s 5-0 in the UFC with three victories by knockout. Of his 17 pro wins, 12 have come by knockout and four more have come by decision.
Morales is a legit athlete, with raw, explosive power, and those physical attributes are what shape his potential in MMA. He’s proven to be a fairly technical striker, albeit a somewhat cautious one.
Through six tracked fights, Morales lands 5.42 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.42 per minute with a 52 percent striking defense. His metrics are skewed a bit, as he’s scored a couple of dominant early knockouts in that stretch. But in his decisions, we’ve seen Morales land 84, 72 and 53 significant strikes, and he also landed 83 sig. strikes in a fight that ended midway through the third round.
So generally, I’d consider Morales to have solid pacing, but he’s not necessarily a massive volume threat, and he excels more in dictating the range and the pace of his fights.
Along with some muay-thai accolades in his native Ecuador, Morales also has some freestyle wrestling accolades, which he hasn’t used much at the UFC level. He only lands 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes but he defends very well at 91 percent.
I like Morales. I think he’s a strong prospect with a great athletic base, but I do think his record needs some context.
His career best win was probably a decision over Jake Matthews where he outlanded Matthews at distance 84-57. He has an early KO over Neil Magny and another decision over Max Griffin, but neither of those wins move the needle when you make comparisons to the upper echelon of this division.
As he continues to take steps up, and will now face Gilbert Burns on Saturday, it’s worth noting that a victory over Burns would be more impressive on paper than every other victory in Morales’ career combined.
Burns is likely in the latter stages of his career, so the timing is certainly on the side of Morales, but Burns has been losing to the best fighters in the welterweight division like Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena and Belal Muhammad in recent matchups. He also has losses to Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman, so in total, Burns’ level of competition has been absolutely elite over the past five years.
Burns is one of the best submission grapplers in the sport today and he came into the UFC in 2014 with that elite submission base. He’s since developed his striking as well under the tutelage of Henry Hooft, but I’ll always consider Burns to be the biggest threat on the mat.
The issue is that Burns isn’t the greatest wrestler in the world, so it’s not as if he’s able to instantly take down his competition. However, he’s still a decent wrestler and averages 2.10 takedowns per 15 minutes.
He’s coming off a loss to Sean Brady in which he only landed one takedown on six attempts, and gave up seven takedowns on 17 attempts. Prior to that, Burns landed seven takedowns in 13 minutes against Maddalena, and was up two rounds on the scorecards heading into that final round where he ultimately ate a flying knee and lost via TKO.
Those are two elite fighters though, with Maddalena being the current champion and Brady likely to be a future champion. Burns may not be able to magically teleport his way onto the back like he used to, but he’s still very capable on the mat and willing to chase takedowns.
On the feet, Burns can be hit or miss, but I don’t typically consider striking a path to victory for him. He lands 3.17 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.57 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate.
Burns does throw with power, and he can compete in exchanges, but he can also be hurt and he’s been knocked down eight times in the UFC. I wouldn’t want to bet on him beating the best in this division in striking exchanges.
Overall, Burns is simply a high-level, and semi well-rounded fighter. He’s extremely experienced, and he has an elite base of skills as a submission grappler. He will continue to have difficulty taking down the upper echelon of the division though, and he’s a bit of a defensive liability on the feet as well, which probably signals more downside than upside at this stage of his career.
I sure as hell do not feel comfortable with Morales being a near -1000 favorite over Burns.
For starters, Burns has been fighting absolutely elite competition for years and years, while Morales is still young and has been fighting somewhat mediocre competition.
Furthermore, Burns has a real path to victory on the mat which he will continue to carry against most of the division. If he can get on top of Morales with any consistency, he will have potential to threaten for a submission.
The 91 percent takedown defense rate from Morales would indicate that wrestling will be difficult for Burns, but it’s also not an impossible task. That defensive marker largely comes from defending takedowns against Max Griffin, but it’s worth noting that both Adam Fugitt and Trevin Giles both took Morales down early in their fights.
In those instances, Morales kind of just got up, or swept the position, but Giles had him in an arm-triangle position for a second which is one of Burns’ best chokes. Fugitt was also able to control Morales for 1.5 minutes, and both of those guys suck.
I don’t think Burns just dominates Morales with grappling here but I do think he’s a strong enough wrestler to get in on the hips and take Morales down on occasion. And with a few takedowns, Burns could easily scramble to a dominant position, threaten for a submission and/or do enough to swing a round or two.
If the fight plays out on the feet, I definitely favor Morales and that’s clearly where his biggest advantage will be. He is just better at dictating exchanges, and he should have a big durability advantage at this point. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Morales knock Burns out, and that could come at any moment.
However, Burns can occasionally bang it out. He landed 119 sig. strikes over 15 minutes against Chimaev, and he’s got power. I just think it will be difficult for him to chase Morales down and it could lead to him getting hurt on the counter.
My best guess here is that Morales defends and neutralizes the grappling exchanges enough to limit Burns’ ceiling, and on the feet, he may just pick Burns apart for a few rounds and eventually hurt him.
Morales isn’t the most urgent fighter in the world though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Burns have early wrestling success. Considering the gap in experience as well, this is at least a good test for Morales that I am interested to see play out.
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On DraftKings, Morales is priced up to 9.7k and I’m not particularly interested in playing him.
I definitely consider Morales to have a boom or bust profile, and we’ve really only seen his ceiling come out when he’s scored quick knockout wins. In his two RD 1 KOs, Morales has scored 117 and 118, which is fantastic.
However, in his two decision wins, Morales has scored 65 and 64 DK points, which is awful. He also has 100 points in a third round KO.
I do think Morales can win by RD 1 KO here too, and in that sense, I consider him viable. But at 9.7k, that’s still not guaranteed to be optimal, and most RD 1 KOs don’t score 115+ anyways.
So even in a best case scenario, you can argue Morales’ ceiling is closer to 110 points which would at least put into question whether he’d be optimal at 9.7k.
Morales was only -140 to win ITD earlier in the week but that’s since been bet up to -225, though he’s only +300 to win in RD 1. This fight is also lined with an O/U at 3.5 rounds, with the Under sitting at -140, meaning the fight is still projected to last 15+ minutes on average.
That just concerns me a little bit for this kind of fighter at this kind of price. Morales isn’t going to have much or any wrestling equity, and could be taken down a few times and give up some control minutes as well.
Over three rounds, he can land 80-90 significant strikes, but that does nothing for me on the fantasy side. A late TKO is not likely to surpass 100 points either. So he really just needs a very early KO or multiple knockdowns en route to an early KO.
I’m not against playing Morales and his floor in a win is probably fine, as I would expect that to come from striking and/or damage. But if he projects to be very popular, I absolutely think coming in underweight is the right call, and hoping the fight extends for a couple of rounds. Even if not, there are still outs for Morales to miss the optimal with a sub 110 point score.
Burns at 6.5k is in play but you’re likely going to need to cap your exposure given he’s nearly +600 to win the fight.
Burns is just going to rate out as a fine, low-end secondary target. He has real wrestling and grappling equity, and he’s gone five rounds multiple times. He has submission upside, and he swings hard on the feet.
For the price tag, I don’t mind some shares of Burns. I also can’t recommend “much” exposure because I do take the betting lines into account and he’s the heaviest underdog on the slate. He’ll probably be more popular than what’s typical for this kind of underdog but I still wouldn’t expect him to clear 20 percent in ownership.
Coming in near the field feels like a strategy, all things considered.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Morales by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig
Fight Odds: Bellato -530, Craig +391
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Bellato 9.4k, Craig 6.8k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup written by Luke Lampe
Paul Craig’s one of the more interesting fighters of the modern era considering he was on tap to get cut at one point, went on run and then found himself in the Top 15. He recently had a 4-fight stint at 185 lbs. where he went 1-3, and is now moving back up to 205 lbs. – he’s 9-9-1 in the UFC and 17-9-1 as a pro. Rodolfo Bellato’s a 2-time Contender Series alum who made good on his 2nd opportunity back in 2023, earning a contract. He’s faced a healthy amount of adversity through his first few UFC fights but sits at 1-0-1 in the promotion and 12-2-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Craig falls into the submission specialist category which leaves some more to be desired with his standup. He’s low output, landing 2.5 SLpM at 44% and 3.4 DLpM at 38%.
He’ll usually be your one and done type of striker with a jab, left hook, tepe kick or spinning back kick. Really outside of his fight with Moreira, who he clipped with a knee early, and the 1st Shogun fight where he just bombed on Shogun in the 1st round, he hasn’t looked good on the feet.
He had points of doing okay against Oezdemir, but I think part of that was that Oezdemir didn’t really respect anything coming back at him – Craig still only went 18 for 102 on head strikes.
Him and Muniz more or less just kicked each other from the outside with no real notable moments. Not a ton happened against Allen, but he was out struck there as well and did get hurt in the 2nd round.
In his defense, he only eats 3 SApM but that’s also a product of him pulling on a lot of the exchanges – he still only defends at 43%.
In that, he’s been KO’d in five of his eight losses in the UFC when grappling sequences couldn’t be initiated – he stands very upright and will rely on slipping punches or shelling.
If Hill didn’t engage in the grappling with him like a dummy in that fight, Hill would have KO’d him – I feel pretty good about saying that – probably a similar tune with Krylov.
Oezdemir not KOing him was interesting but after watching the fight back, Oezdemir was more so looking to just point fight and didn’t sit down on a ton in the fight either.
Overall, Craig is still a liability on the feet in virtually every fight and will struggle with guys who won’t play his game.
Bellato’s a bricked-up dude at 205 that works in a mid-range to pressure based style.
He hasn’t always been an output machine but throws with intent when he does go, possessing some bigger power components with seven of his 12 pro wins coming KO/TKO.
His only two pro losses came to Vitor Petrino who was able to KO him on both occasions. He did take a healthy amount of damage in the 2nd fight but was returning fire and actually knocked Petrino down in the fight with a big right hand.
But he’s also shown a solid clinch game where he can wear his opponents down with knees and elbows, which we’ve seen in his last handful of fights.
The main issue I have with Bellato is that he’s not great defensively and can overextend on his shots. He will keep a higher guard at space but certain opponents have been able to work around it. I wasn’t going to label him officially chinny after getting bonked twice by Petrino but he’s also gotten knocked down in his last two fights.
He went on to win the Potieria fight and the latter two rounds against Crute, forcing the draw, so the guy won’t quit for sure but it’s still an alarming historic going forward.
How it plays out: Despite some of the documented chin issues of Bellato, this isn’t a fight I have much worry for him as Craig simply isn’t much of a threat standing. Bellato lands double the distance volume on average in comparison to Craig and hits way harder. I just don’t see what Craig’s real upside standing is outside of an errant head kick or Bellato just not throwing strikes.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Craig is a BJJ black belt with a large chunk of his fights finding their way to the ground.
He’s shown some good TD components at times, securing against guys like Ankalaev, Crute and Muniz but he’s also a guy that needs to be in deep on the original attempt to secure. If he isn’t, he’ll pull guard pretty much every time as he doesn’t possess real chain wrestling components.
In that, his grappling successes to date have primarily come on his back as he has a very aggressive/dangerous guard and longer limbs to attack triangles and armbars.
Despite me not rating him as an overall wrestler, his BJJ is dangerous. If guys don’t come proper, Craig will expose them and has on multiple occasions now.
But it’s also important to note that when Craig hasn’t gotten those early subs or been blasted himself, he’s dropped multiple fights to Crute, the 1st Shogun fight, fights where both guys were able to gain extensive top time and later in the fights and then Oezdemir who also had some top success.
We also saw Krylov beat Craig up good from top position, nearly putting him out, but he was playing with fire at the end of the day and got subbed. Allen also by and large dominated the grappling sequences, eventually winning via RNC. Craig did have a viable calf slicer at one point though. He then didn’t land any TDs against Borralho or Nickal and lost those fights.
Overall, Craig’s a poor wrestler overall securing at only 20% and stuffing at 37.5%. So opponents can take Craig down and control him, but they are playing with some fire.
Bellato is a BJJ brown belt with four of his 12 pro wins coming via submission.
He’s not a great wrestler but is capable for a guy with a base BJJ background as I’ve seen him hit some good foot sweeps, single legs and be able to drag guys down against the fence.
When on top, he’s largely been strong with the exception of losing back position against Petrino in the 2nd fight – granted Petrino’s shown a stronger ability to scramble to date.
But outside of that, he’s usually able to keep guys on the mat and will look to pass – but also works well within half guard to chip away at opponents and land GNP.
Defensively, he’s been taken down a handful of times but has always done a good job of either threatening submissions, sweeping to top or working to stand back up.
So, in general, we haven’t seen him threatened much on the floor – he was eating heavy GNP from Potieria after he got hurt standing and he has pulled guard a few times which I don’t love. But he did fine post knockdown against Crute and gave up no conventional TDs.
I do like his ability to grind guys though and he showed he can do that for 25 minutes in his last LFA fight. I don’t think he’s a cardio machine per say but it’s clearly respectable for the 205 lb. division.
Overall, Bellato’s above-average ground capabilities will give him advantages over a decent chunk of the division.
How it plays out: As noted, Bellato’s been taken down a few times but overall, his TDD is pretty solid and I think Craig is going to severely struggle getting the fight down. Bellato’s also shown to be competent in the jiu-jitsu realm so it’s not a situation where I think he’s screwed if he finds himself in tricky spots. In theory, he could wrestle Craig and probably be fine although I don’t think that would be a smart gameplan because it’s giving Craig his only real PTV.
This fight profiles as more of an IQ test for Bellato than anything. He’s not some “world class” striker but he’s clearly a better one than Craig who has the tools to keep the fight upright, outland Craig and/or put him down.
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On DraftKings, Bellato is another standard boom or bust target at 9.4k.
It’s another one that I don’t feel extremely comfortable with, to be honest, as Craig doesn’t absorb a high rate of strikes and might slow the fight down a bit. If this fight extends, I don’t think it’s very likely Bellato can reach a ceiling.
Plus, Bellato hasn’t looked particularly good in his recent fights. Craig may not be the type to fully test him but I don’t necessarily trust Bellato as a talent.
Either way, he’s priced at 9.4k and on this slate and needs an early KO. He’s -300 to win ITD which is a massive number and showing a lot of respect for Bellato. The fight as a whole is -600 to end inside the distance.
Based on that finishing metric alone, you can argue Bellato is indeed a priority and potentially the best play in this top tier. I’m not sure I’d go that far personally, but I definitely think there’s merit to prioritizing Bellato ahead of Morales.
It’s just difficult in that knockouts are hard to predict. Even if Bellato gets one, he could score in the low 100s and be beaten by someone else in this range. I tend to be more cautious than the field with early KO targets.
In this particular matchup, I can acknowledge Bellato should have a clear path to keeping the fight upright and landing some big shots. His finishing metrics are elite and I’m sort of looking for a spot to get off Morales at 9.7k. So ultimately I don’t mind Bellato and will probably end up with moderate (near field) exposure to him on this slate.
Craig at 6.8k is viable in the sense that he’s a tough guy with some tricky ground skills, and he’s come through as a dog on more than one occasion.
He’s also not a guy I trust as his game is pretty broken and he’s just not processed.
Leverage against Bellato interests me a bit, especially as if Craig wins, it probably comes ITD. He’s +475 to win ITD though and a big dog.
I would be fine using Craig as a dart throw on this slate with leverage included. But he has no floor and it’s not a particularly strong matchup for him in any regard. Coming in very light or fading with a smaller number of lineups feels perfectly acceptable as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bellato by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos
Fight Odds: Santos -137, Yusuff +119
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.3k, Yusuff 7.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Sodiq Yusuff is a Contender Series alum from the 2018 season who had a hot start to his run but has struggled when pitted against top 15 levels of competition. He’ll be looking to rebound from back-to-back losses for the first time in his career – he’s 6-3 in the UFC and 13-4 as a pro. Mairon Santos is a younger prospect and newer addition to the UFC who earned a contract this past August, winning the 32nd season of The Ultimate Fighter. He officially made good on his sophomore UFC appearance back in March but under heavy controversy – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 15-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Yusuff is a pretty stocky and longer 145er in reach, who possesses some heavy and fast hands. He’s outlanded eight of his 10 last opponents (including DWCS) at distance and lands 5.4 SLpM at 49%.
He’ll tend to look to walk guys down, throw a lot of leg kicks and fire power hooks. He hits hard to boot having KO’d six of 13 opponents in wins, and has hurt numerous other opponents outside of those official finishes.
More from a technical perspective, the guy showed he can go strike for strike over 25 minutes with an elite striker in Edson Barboza despite coming up short.
His primary issues come defensively as he eats 4.4 SApM at 54% which are numbers that have increased a decent bit since his fight with Barboza where he ate 164 significant strikes. It is important to note that in four of his five UFC fights that have hit the cards, he’s at least dropped a round.
Despite only being KO’d twice, he’s been hurt a decent amount in the UFC by the likes of Fili, Benitez, Allen (2) and Barboza. To his credit, he’s fought through and recovered in most scenarios, having gone on to win two of those fights. But he couldn’t survive the surge of Diego Lopes last time out getting put down early.
With all of that being said though, Yusuff has still competed with/outstruck some good strikers at the end of the day.
Overall, Yusuff’s forward pressure style, output and power will always make him a tough out but his chin is of real concern at this point.
Santos comes from a muay thai background and is a lankier guy at 145 lbs., standing 5’9” with a 72” reach. His volume is on the lower end of the spectrum as he falls more into a tactician type of role.
Despite his lower volume nature, his style has still been conducive for him to dictate the large bulk of exchanges in his fights to date where he’s by and large besting his opponents on the feet.
He has eight KOs of his 15 pro wins but the bulk of them came earlier on in his career and against a lesser level of competition. He scored a big counter shot KO in his debut against Ofli but I still don’t think he’s a “raw power” guy where it’s more so his timing that can catch guys at times.
But he uses his length well within the mid-range, chops opponents’ legs down with kicks, fires out straight shots and has some slip/pull counters within his game.
He also generally keeps a higher guard as do most traditional thai fighters, so he’s also able to block a lot of shots when opponents come at him if he’s not getting off the center line – although he’s gotten tagged a few times.
Despite outlanding Marshall last time out 57-39, he got hurt at the end of round one and both guys traded head strikes at an equal rate.
Overall, I’m not the biggest fan of Santos’ style just because it can lead to tighter margins if he’s not finishing potentially, but he’s also a guy who’s difficult to get off on or produce consistent amounts of offense against, so he’s made it work well for him.
How it plays out: Both guys are at relative size parity so in terms of height and length so there’s not much to take there. The striking is a bit funky to analyze as there are pros and cons with both. The pros for Yusuff come in output, raw KO power and being the more proven commodity, having fought a better brand of striker. The pros for Santos come in technicality with straight shots as Yusuff can be a lot more looping, being the more defensively sound fighter, specifically to the head, and the guy with less durability concerns. Both are really good leg kickers than have compromised opponents before as well so we should get some solid lower body exchanges. But I also don’t think either does nearly as well when they’re put on the back foot so part of what the striking may come down to is in who can get the respect of the other. I don’t have much of an opinion to where you could sell me either way – leaning Yusuff.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Yusuff’s not much of a wrestler having only landed two TDs in the UFC, as it’s not a big part of his game from an offensive perspective – 0.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 22%.
He also only stuffs at 55%, which isn’t good but a tad misleading in the sense that he’s incredibly difficult to hold down.
Fili landed three TDs in their fight but only got two minutes of control time – Fili’s a decent wrestler. Yusuff was able to kimura sweep Fili in the 1st round and did some good work from top position racking up healthy minutes there and off a kick in the 2nd.
Against Allen, he got taken down twice and controlled for five minutes but the majority of that was via cage push as Yusuff was able to work up quickly – still concerning he wasn’t able to work off the cage as much though. But he also did a good job of nullifying the back takes of Caceres who is a good transitional grappler and black belt.
He jumped a gilly against Shainis early and got it – not a huge fan of the gilly jump but he was in a good position for it and tapped him quickly.
More recently, he landed a lot of good GNP early after hurting Barboza but did get taken down three times later in the 5th round where he was able to work up relatively quickly.
Overall, the ground by and large hasn’t played a big factor in Yusuff’s fights given that he’s not a great offensive wrestler, but he has proven to be a solid scrambler and is also positionally aware grappling wise – he’s never been submitted as a pro.
Being a base striker, we haven’t really seen Santos pursue offensive wrestling much outside of the occasional clinch exchange.
I’m unsure of his BJJ credentials but he has no pro wins or losses via submission.
It’s been the wrestling against for Santos that has given him some issues in the past.
The main fight to hit on was his first and only pro loss against recently retired/former UFC fighter Dan Argueta where he largely got mauled for the better part of 15 minutes before succumbing to GNP late in the fight.
In the defense of Santos, the fight was 2.5 years ago and it was down at 135 lbs. which isn’t his natural weight class – coupled with Argueta being the most established talent he’d fought at that time. But he nullified wrestling attacks well in his following fight against Barbosa.
On this past season of TUF, both of the opponents he fought in Cooper Jr and Torres were base wrestlers. He struggled with the early grind from Cooper Jr and dropped the 1st round, but by and large shut his wrestling down throughout the rest of the fight barring one other late TD in the 3rd. He got taken down a couple times by Torres in the following bout but was able to work up quickly in all instances.
So, I think it’s pretty clear that Santos has made evolutions not only in his defensive wrestling but also in being able to nullify back takes – although he still does have a tendency to give the back – he’s just used knee shields far better.
But ultimately besting a guy like Cooper Jr is most impressive to me because he was one of the primary favorites to get to the finals of that season and a guy I rate as a solid prospect.
He gave up a few TDs to Marshall last time out at inopportune times that realistically should have cost him the fight, but he still showed pretty good first layer TDD and scrambled well from the attacks in round two.
Overall, Santos hasn’t shown any real offensive upside, so I’d still have to classify the ground as more of a con than a pro in his game as it’s ultimately how he’s dropped minutes and rounds so far in his career. But as noted, evolutions have been made.
How it plays out: Both guys aren’t willing wrestlers or particularly good ones offensively to begin with so it’s not a fight I’d project much ground time in. If I had to assign more upside, I would lean Yusuff just because I think he’s the physically stronger guy that we’ve seen in top positions more than Santos. Additionally, he just seems more well versed position to position and at the end of the day, Santos’ lone pro loss had a negative ground element against him.
Solid booking from the matchmakers as I think it’s been established at this point that Yusuff isn’t a top 15 guy in this weight class and will probably fall more into a gatekeeper type of role going forward – that being juxtaposed with Santos who’s a young 24 year old prospect and still getting his feet wet. I definitely see upside to Santos in the matchup as it’s a bit difficult to trust the chin of Yusuff at this point or to not give away bigger moments. At the same time, Santos realistically should be coming off a loss to Marshall and Yusuff is a step up from Marshall. So, I’ll go with Yusuff for the win but it’s a fight that does bring degrees of variance based on the matchup.
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On DraftKings, this is a tricky one and I think it ultimately boils down to whether or not someone scores an early KO.
Of the two, I have a little bit more faith in Santos being the one to secure it. Yusuff has been hurt several times and he’s coming off a KO loss. Santos is probably more technical and more defensively sound, so I could see him hurting Yusuff.
Santos is only +240 to win ITD though, and I wouldn’t necessarily consider the KO the most likely outcome. Santos is simply too slow paced and throws too little shots for me to get excited about his finishing upside.
Realistically, I don’t think I’m going to end up playing much Santos with a smaller portfolio. I’d probably rather bet on the fight extending, which it is projected to at -200 to go the distance.
With a larger portfolio, Santos seems like a fine secondary target who is extremely boom or bust. But one who has a path to the KO and shouldn’t be overwhelmingly popular. I just don’t like his pacing personally and he’s super limited.
Yusuff at 7.9k is another live underdog but another one who doesn’t have much ceiling in this matchup.
In theory, yeah Yusuff could win by KO, but I don’t think he will be able to land a high volume of strikes. The most likely outcome here is probably Yusuff winning a competitive decision where he lands 60-70 strikes and scores 60 points on DraftKings.
Wrestling is an additional possibility for him, but I’d be pretty surprised to see him make that work. He’s never landed two or more takedowns in a fight and I doubt one takedown is enough to swing it in his favor. Santos was mildly hurt last time out but Yusuff is only +500 to win ITD.
I’m probably going to be off Yusuff as well to be honest, even though I think he can win. I hate the pacing of this fight and although Yusuff has outs, I don’t think he’s likely to hit those outs. He’s another contrarian target here in this mid-range who you could sprinkle with a large portfolio, but with a smaller portfolio, I’m probably aiming to be light and hoping the fight extends.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Fight Odds: Ruziboev -304, Stoltzfus +246
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Ruziboev 9k, Stoltzfus 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun fight here in the middleweight division between Nursulton Ruziboev and Dustin Stoltzfus.
Ruziboev is now 3-1 in the UFC. He knocked out Brunno Ferreira and Sedriques Dumas in his first two UFC fights. The Dumas fight was controversial as there was an eye poke though.
Ruziboev then lost to Joaquin Buckley in a fight where he was basically outwrestled and beaten on the mat. Ruziboev then bounced back and knocked out Eric McConico which was his last fight.
Ruziboev is 36-9-2 professionally and has a lot of experience in random regional promotions. This guy mostly looks like an early finisher to me as he has lost seven of his nine fights that have gone to decision. Almost all of his wins come early.
Ruziboev is long and big at 6’5”, and will strike and grapple. Ruziboev is very dangerous early on the feet, and uses his long frame to crowd opponents and land his long punches and kicks. He can definitely finish guys in the UFC.
Ruziboev is also a BJJ black belt and can blitz guys early with grappling. He is submission capable in general.
I really have concerns with this guy though. He loses a ton of decisions and I don’t trust him in extended fights. I have seen him tire out badly, get taken down himself, and even give up advances of positions like mount and side control.
At this point, I don’t totally trust Ruziboev in extended fights against quality competition. He is not proven over the duration at all. Buckley is a good fighter so I don’t want to give Ruziboev too much crap for that loss. However, it wasn’t a great look either.
Ruziboev will be taking on Dustin Stoltzfus. Stoltzfus isn’t really good, and he is 3-5 in the UFC. He is coming off an absolutely shocking result where he knocked out Marc-Andre Barriault. It was just crazy to see because Stoltzfus isn’t known for his power really and Barriault is generally a pretty tough guy.
I would label Stoltzfus mostly as a grappler, but he isn’t that great of one. I also have concerns with his lack of athleticism. He did land four takedowns against Punahele Soriano though and submitted him in round two. So that was a decent performance.
As a striker, Stoltzfus is not that great. He lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.29 in return. He defends strikes at 46 percent. He can kind of go through the motions. However, he isn’t particularly skilled. I just don’t think he is very good on the feet. He seems tough but he was knocked out by Abus Magomedov and Brunno Ferreira in round one. Those guys are dangerous so I don’t consider them awful knockout losses but again as mentioned above, I don’t like when guys rack up multiple knockout losses.
As a grappler, Stoltzfus is okay. He comes from a submission grappling background and is mildly to moderately competent on the mat. He lands 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and can kind of float on top and can submit weak grapplers on the mat.
I still don’t think Stoltzfus’ takedowns are great or explosive though. He was able to take down Gerald Meerschaert who doesn’t even bother defending takedowns. He then took down Dwight Grant and kind of beat him up on the mat. Grant doesn’t have good TDD against chained attempts though, and Grant has a terrible bottom game. He also outgrappled Soriano. Stoltzfus is basically just a decent grappler in general and it is a path to victory for him against some of the middleweight roster.
I also at least consider Stoltzfus tough too. He can be knocked out. However, if you don’t put him out cold, he will come forward and try to land strikes and try to land takedowns and try really hard for 15 minutes.
As far as this matchup goes, this just seems like a classic early finisher in Ruziboev vs a guy in Stoltzfus who just needs to survive early to potentially test Ruziboev.
I think Ruziboev has a really good chance to knock out Stoltzfus early. We have seen Stoltzfus finished early several times and Ruziboev is seriously dangerous. I think it is probably the most likely outcome of the fight and what I am going to pick to happen. I just think there is a massive athleticism and power advantage for Ruziboev especially early in this fight.
I still just do not trust Ruziboev in extended fights though. Buckley is better than Stoltzfus so just because Buckley had success against Ruziboev in an extended fight doesn’t make me think Stoltzfus automatically will. It is more so the regional matchups where Ruziboev was getting mounted and put in bad spots that have me sketched out here. I do think Stoltzfus surviving and just having success later in this fight is possible. Stoltzfus could potentially land some takedowns and advance position.
Ruziboev still is skilled though so maybe he can just shut Stoltzfus down in an extended fight. Ruziboev also did get up from bottom against Buckley at times too.
Overall though, I just don’t trust Stoltzfus to survive. He gets hurt often and the one thing we know Ruziboev can do is hurt people badly. My guess is Ruziboev takes Stoltzfus out early.
—
On DraftKings, this is probably one of my favorite fights on the slate and I’ll be targeting it from both sides.
I wasn’t as shocked as Tim by the last Stoltzfus result, and we were on him there as a quality underdog. I still didn’t think he’d win by quick KO, but Stoltzfus has fought really solid competition and I think is kind of underrated.
I do think Buckley is better than Stoltzfus as far as comparisons go, in terms of potentially testing Ruziboev down the stretch. But is Punahele Soriano much worse than Ruziboev? Stoltzfus dominated him, took him down four times and subbed him.
I really don’t see why Stoltzfus couldn’t have success against Ruziboev. He’s probably the better wrestler of the two outright and fares better in extended fights. I also think Ruziboev is pretty likely to hurt Stoltzfus on the feet if it stays there, and I agree it might be the most likely outcome.
So overall, this is a fight I like. I think Ruziboev has clear early KO upside, and I think Stoltzfus can fare better in an extended fight, and have success wrestling.
Ruziboev is priced at 9k and looks like a pretty strong tournament option. He is -230 to win ITD and Stoltzfus has lost by RD 1 KO in each of his last two losses. Plus, he’s been submitted a couple of times as well, granted by solid competition in Rodolfo Vieira and Meerschaert, but it’s possible Ruziboev could lock up a stupid kimora or something as well.
I just see Ruziboev primarily winning ITD when he wins, and probably early. It gives him a fair amount of upside for his price tag.
I also worry he’s going to be chalky, given his box scores. He’s put up 100, 105 and 97 in his three wins and has one of the best ITD lines on the slate. He should be popular at this price tag. I’m still quite willing to play him though.
Stoltzfus at 7.2k is one underdog I like.
I’m just highly skeptical of Ruziboev and his 0 percent takedown defense. His UFC wins are basically meaningless to me. I still think he’s a dangerous finisher but Stoltzfus is competent and experienced enough to test him.
He might get a little love coming off a quick KO win, but I still expect him to play a leverage role against Ruziboev at 7.2k. He’s only +450 to win ITD but even in a wrestling based win, I think he can outperform his price tag.
This slate of underdogs aren’t the most appealing ones I’ve ever seen, and I definitely consider Stoltzfus to be risky. However, I like his wrestling equity in an extended matchup and I consider him a solid secondary target who I wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to this weekend.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ruziboev by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
Fight Odds: Costa -174, Erosa +149
Odds to Finish: -205
DraftKings Salaries: Costa 8.7k, Erosa 7.5k
Weight Class: 145
We should have a fun clash in the featherweight division between longtime staple Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa. Both fighters have won three consecutive fights, so the winner here is really setting up a push toward getting a spot in the rankings.
Erosa has been extremely hit or miss throughout most of his career. He’s arguably now in his prime at age 35 though, and seems to be fighting better and better.
The thing with Erosa has always been his lack of durability though. He’s always been skillful, but every few fights, he gets absolutely murdered and they have to drag him out of the Octagon and onto a stretcher.
We haven’t seen that type of loss occur in a few fights now, but as sad as it sounds, I do think we’re likely to see him hurt and knocked out again soon.
When he’s conscious, Erosa is a skilled kickboxer with decent volume, and he’s a fine grappler who actually pulled off back-to-back guillotine wins against Ricardo Ramos and Christian Rodriguez. I was really shocked to see him submit Rodriguez. I also thought his win against Dawodu in 2022 was the best of his career.
Most recently, he put a predictable beating on Darren Elkins for a few minutes before the ref was forced to step in.
When he’s conscious, Erosa is a very capable round winner and a semi-dangerous finisher. He’s averaging 6.40 sig. strikes landed per minute while absorbing 6.21 per minute with a 48 percent defensive rate. He also lands 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 63 percent defensive rate.
Again, it’s worth reiterating that Erosa has also lost seven times in the UFC, and six of them have been brutal early knockouts. Padilla and Caceres were the last to pull that off, back in 2022 and 2023.
It will always be difficult for me to fully trust Erosa, but he’s a decent fighter outside of his poor durability.
Melquizael Costa is now 23-7 professionally at age 28, and he’s earned a 4-2 record in the UFC with a couple of submission wins. He’s actually won seven fights by TKO, eight by submission, and eight by decision, which is a pretty solid and spread out fight tree.
I think Costa is a solid fighter but he’s been somewhat inconsistent in the UFC and I don’t particularly trust him either.
I would argue that his career best performance came over three rounds against Austin Lingo, where Costa easily outstruck him at distance and landed 100 significant strikes, and also took Lingo down three times as well.
His recent wins have been a bit more sketchy. He was taken down four times and controlled for a while by Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, but ended up taking Nuerdanbieke down late and choked him out in the third round.
He was having success early on the feet against Andre Fili, but Fili took him down and then stuck his head right into a guillotine choke.
Most recently, Costa neutralized the wrestling of Christian Rodriguez and won a decision. It was a very competitive fight where Rodriguez still landed six takedowns and Costa outlanded him 65-64 in significant strikes. Costa was able to scramble into some strong positions and generally won the optics.
In his losses, Costa was taken down four times by Thiago Moises and submitted in his UFC debut. He also was melted by Steve Garcia in a second round KO.
Prior to his last fight, I had wondered aloud whether Costa had the capability to play the role of the nail. I was worried that he’d continue to struggle when facing adversity and generally needed to be in control to win.
I’m still not fully trusting of him but I do think his performance against Rodriguez was strong, as Costa showed good scrambling ability and willingness to fight out of positions. I don’t consider him an elite prospect but he seems well-rounded enough and semi-dangerous.
Considering the styles of both, I think this matchup has makings for a fun and competitive fight.
Erosa can strike at a high pace, and I definitely think can give Costa troubles over three rounds. Costa has yet to absorb more than 64 significant strikes, but Erosa has 100+ sig. strike upside and I’ll be curious to see if Costa can keep pace with him for 15 minutes.
At the same time, I have to trust the durability of Costa way more. He can definitely compete with Erosa at kicking range, and it may only take one good shot to put Erosa unconscious.
Grappling exchanges should be fun as well. Erosa isn’t a great wrestler, but Costa isn’t the best defensive wrestler, so I think Erosa has upside for 1-2 takedowns. I doubt he can control Costa for long periods of time but he’s flashed some submission upside and he has a decent choking game.
Likewise, Costa can land 1-2 takedowns and I don’t consider Erosa’s takedown defense to be that strong. Erosa usually does not lose by submission though, so I’d be a bit more surprised if Costa could really threaten Erosa on the mat.
Regardless, I think this fight could be hectic, and I think both fighters project for both striking and grappling success in some regard. We could easily see momentum swing both ways, and I wouldn’t be shocked by another highly competitive decision.
Costa has more KO upside on paper but it’s worth mentioning he’s still been finished in both of his losses as well. Erosa isn’t the most powerful striker but he could possibly hurt Costa or jump on a sub, and I sorta think he’s the more proven minute winner at this stage.
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On DraftKings, I actually like this fight quite a bit and I think it’s one I’m willing to chase.
Costa is priced up to 8.7k and is arguably the bigger risk as I don’t expect massive volume numbers in a win. However, I would consider him to have legit KO upside against Erosa, who just has proven shit durability.
In order to beat Erosa, you have to outpace him or knock him out anyway, so it’s going to give Costa a high floor of offensive production. I could definitely see him missing the optimal lineup in a decision win, but I think it’s very possible a win comes with a KD, and/or takedowns.
At 8.7k, Costa is +115 to win ITD and just a solid, secondary tournament target with finishing upside. Not a guarantee and probably not someone I will be drastically overweight to, but I’d definitely like exposure to him and I think he has a pretty reasonable path to exceeding value in this matchup.
Erosa at 7.5k is a fine secondary play as well.
Erosa has an even stronger floor of offensive production in a win, and I also think he has some sneaky finishing equity. He’s +250 to win ITD which is pretty decent for the price, and Costa has been subbed and KOd in the UFC already.
Erosa also has a fantastic history of scoring on DraftKings. In wins, he’s put up 116, 111, 93, 97, 112, 101, 131, 104 and 82.
I don’t consider this an easy matchup for Erosa and I’m not willing to be extremely heavy on him. But I absolutely think he can compete in rounds, and I trust his historic pacing. He’ll have some grappling equity and mild finishing upside alongside it.
Given his history of producing optimal scores in wins, I’m willing to use Erosa at 7.5k and I consider him a solid secondary target this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Erosa by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo
Fight Odds: Camilo -227, Green +191
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Camilo 8.6k, Green 7.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually excited for this matchup between Matheus Camilo and Gabe Green. It could lowkey be a banger.
Camilo is a Brazilian fighter who is 9-2 professionally. He is 24 years old and this will be his UFC debut. He won a high profile fight on Dana White’s “Looking for a Fight” series to book his ticket to the UFC.
So Camilo has fought in random regional promotions and his competition hasn’t been great. However, the fighter he fought on Lookin for a Fight was a good wrestler, so it was a decent win.
Camilo is basically a striker. He actually reminds me of a lightweight version of Jean Matsumoto. Like Matsumoto he is short, compact and physical, and can get aggressive and does his best work when he is walking opponents down. He is a competent boxer and has power in his hands. He has some really nasty low kicks which he has crippled fighters with. He basically will attack with flurries with his hands and mix his low kick in throughout. He can be pretty damaging and I do think he has some power.
Camilo can be low volume at times, but he generally will get aggressive at certain points in the fight. He has good shot selection and can work the body. He is also pretty fast.
Camilo is quite green and young though, and I do question his quality of competition. His cardio is a bit of a concern too. I have seen him fight 15 minutes and he still fought fine in round three, but he did look labored to a degree.
I also don’t think Camilo’s durability has really been tested but he does look tough. He also doesn’t really have much other offense in his game. He doesn’t wrestle a ton although he looks competent on top. He still is probably limited to winning striking fights which is tough at lightweight. He can also be taken down, but he can work up and I do think his takedown defense is improving. Good grapplers can likely exploit him though.
I do think Camilo can win fights at this level with his striking. He is also young and will likely improve. I don’t think his skillset will get him super far in this division as it takes more than competent boxing to rise through the lightweight division. However, I do think he looks UFC level and he can win some fights in the UFC and be in some fun action fights.
Camilo will be taking on Gabe Green. Green is a tough low middle class action fighter. He is a guy who relies on his toughness, pace, and striking volume. He is offensive minded which I like. He is generally a high output boxer who can keep up a hard pace for 15 minutes. He can definitely gas fighters out too. He never stops. He may mix in a takedown or two. However, his boxing and pressure are his bread and butter.
Green lands 6.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.95 in return. Again I like his offense but he is defensively void and hittable. He can be hurt too and was knocked down in his last three fights, and knocked out in his last fight in just 14 seconds. I do think he has decent durability but his style can just cause high variance. I also don’t like that he has been getting hurt lately. He defends takedowns at 53 percent and can be taken down as well.
I do have some narrative based concerns with Green. He hasn’t fought for two years and he isn’t old, but he is 32 and is likely not going to improve. I just don’t know how focused he is on fighting at this point. This is a drop down in weight for Green too so who knows how that plays into this fight.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this fight could be a ton of fun and I am expecting a lot of action on the feet, mostly because Green always brings it.
I do think Camilo has a better career trajectory. He is young at 24 and Green is older and hasn’t been active. So Camilo is likely just going to improve while I am not too sure about how Green will look after a long layoff.
I do think this will mostly play out on the feet. I think Camilo is more powerful and is faster with more athleticism. I also really like Camilo’s calf kicks. I also think Green is just really hittable which may not be good here as Camilo has some pop. So I will pick Camilo to win.
I still don’t think Green can be counted out though. He has a lot of experience and does keep up a crazy pace. He could easily test the cardio of Camilo and gas him out. Camilo has looked labored before and Green pushes a crazy pace. Green also could just test Camilo in general and compete with him because Camilo hasn’t proven himself vs good competition. If Green takes some shots and fights competitively throughout this fight, I really won’t be surprised.
I still think it is fair to pick the more youthful fighter who has some athleticism advantages though so I will pick Camilo to get this done.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think we can be confident in this fight but I do like the potential pacing and also potential for someone to get hurt.
Of the two, I’m more willing to take chances on the knockout upside of Camilo. He’s priced at 8.6k and is +105 to win ITD, which is a pretty strong line. I do think that could draw some public attention as well.
On the flip side, I’d still label Camilo as boom or bust. I wouldn’t expect much wrestling in this fight and I don’t see striking volume being enough. He likely needs an early KO, which always brings risk and generally forces me to cap my ownership on a fighter.
Green has been knocked down three times in a row though. I definitely think Camilo has some KD/KO upside and he’s going to rate out as a pretty strong, boom or bust, upside fighter in this mid-range. At 8.6k, I wouldn’t mind being a touch overweight to the field either just given the theoretical upside.
Green at 7.6k is viable and is probably a good leverage target.
I don’t really see him being popular, coming off a 14-second KO loss, with Camilo being the hotter new prospect. Green has scored 92 and 105 in his two wins though, and we’ve seen him go the distance with two strong opponents in Ian Garry and Daniel Rodriguez.
It seems very possible that if Green’s chin holds up, he could just be the higher paced fighter of the two. That alone doesn’t equate to upside but if he can hurt Camilo late or something, or start to swarm if he gets tired, that could bring upside to the table.
Green is +315 to win ITD which is fine for the price tag. I don’t necessarily love him and I’m not picking him to win, but I’m thinking he gets a bit overlooked in this range, and he’ll also present leverage against Camilo. So it’s not a terrible spot for those reasons, especially given the pacing upside of the matchup, but he’s still not my favorite dog target in general.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Camilo by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises
Fight Odds: Gordon -121, Moises +105
Odds to Finish: +225
DraftKings Salaries: Gordon 8.2k, Moises 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a solid matchup here between two long time UFC veterans in Jared Gordon and Thiago Moises.
Gordon has some issues, but I have liked him more than the betting market has and have successfully bet him multiple times. He has good metrics, is well-rounded, and has good cardio.
Gordon lands 5.75 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.97. He lands 55 percent of his strikes and defends strikes at 56 percent. That is solid and he is a decent striker. He has good output, is offensive minded in general, and has some boxing skills. He is not particularly dangerous though and he has generally padded his metrics against poor competition.
However, Gordon showed he is capable in his last fight against Nasrat Haqparast. He lost a striking based split decision in a razor close fright. Nasrat outlanded Gordon 146-141 in significant strikes but I honestly leaned Gordon and thought he won the last two rounds by landing the better strikes. It was a very close fight though. Regardless, Nasrat is good and Gordon showed he can fight competitively against good competition.
Gordon is also a competent grappler. He lands 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at 31 percent. I don’t consider Gordon a great wrestler, but I do consider him average to above-average. He defends takedowns at 62 percent which is okay. However, the few times that I have seen him taken down, he has scrambled up very well unless he gets body triangled. I also like that Gordon lands a lot of ground and pound in top position. He also fought off Grant Dawson for awhile in their matchup.
Gordon is also a decent submission grappler. He is a black belt in BJJ under John Danaher which is an impressive rank to have. He doesn’t have many submission wins in his career and I don’t consider him a dangerous offensive submission artist. However, he is positionally sound in BJJ positions and has actually only been submitted one time in 35 professional fights.
Gordon will be taking on Thiago Moises who is coming off a decision win against Trey Ogden. Moises is a decent fighter. He is well-rounded and doesn’t have many technical holes in his game. He is a decent striker, a decent wrestler, and a decent submission grappler.
However, I really just dislike Moises’ overall offensive output. He only lands 2.50 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.12 in return. He also only lands 1.34 takedowns per 15 minutes. That just isn’t enough offense to ever run away with rounds. It will always be a concern of mine with Moises.
Moises does have skills on the feet though. He is no slouch. He has decent pop and has some good calf kicks. He really struggles to pressure sometimes though and can be overwhelmed if his opponents put a pace on him. You saw that against Benoit Saint Denis and Ludovit Klein.
Moises is a pretty solid submission grappler and he has won by submission a lot recently. However, he only attempts four takedowns per fight. I do think he can outgrapple weak grapplers. He actually landed four takedowns against Holobough and Costa. However, you can’t always trust him to really push for volume takedowns. Moises defends takedowns at 53 percent which is okay. He can also scramble up decently.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually lean Gordon slightly. I just like the offensive output of Gordon more. I trust him to just put up more offense in all areas especially on the feet.
On the feet, I just like Gordon’s volume more. I think he has better cardio than Moises and can push a pace on Moises that Moises may not like. I don’t think Moises is in over his head standing though. Moises can maybe land leg kicks to damage Gordon or just compete technically at times. However, I think if they strike for 15 minutes then Gordon will just land the higher volume of strikes. Gordon won’t get overwhelmed by a pace either. If someone just wilts to a striking pace I think it will be Moises.
I also think Gordon could maybe even land takedowns here. I think he is an underrated wrestler. I doubt Gordon can do much with them though. Moises may be able to land some takedowns too. However, Moises doesn’t wrestle tenaciously often and I don’t think he will easily be able to take and hold Gordon down. Gordon is a fine defensive grappler.
So my guess is that the grappling neutralizes to a degree but Gordon wins with more striking output.
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On DraftKings, this is a bit of an awkward fight and I do have concerns that we won’t see it reach its full fantasy potential.
Moises typically wants a slower pace, which is my primary concern. I do like that Gordon wants to push a higher pace, but I’m not sold he’ll get it.
It is reason enough for me to pick Gordon to win though. Gordon is just far more capable than Moises in a dog fight, and he’s coming off one of the best fights of his career in a close loss to Haqparast.
At 8.2k, I have some interest in Gordon. Specifically, Moises can occasionally wilt to pace and pressure. A lot of his losses have elements of wilting in them.
Klein knocked him down twice, BSD took him down five times and subbed him, Alvarez knocked him out early, Makhachev subbed him, Ismagulov knocked him down and Dariush took him down four times.
Pretty much in every loss, Moises has ceded bigger moments to his competition, and a fair amount of offense. So I do think in a win scenario, Gordon could possibly hurt Moises with attrition and get a late stoppage. I’m just not particularly confident in Gordon’s ability to deal that damage.
Gordon is only +700 to win ITD here so he’ll rate out pretty horribly. Earlier in the week I thought Gordon might even close as the dog, but it looks like he’s been bet up to a slight favorite now. I still don’t expect him to be very possible and as a semi-contrarian target, I actually have some interest in Gordon.
Gordon has a fairly strong historic ceiling in wins, and in his decisions, he’s put up 101, 74, 95, 121, 111, and 104..
Simply, this is not an ideal matchup for Gordon to score, and I am pretty worried about Moises slowing down the pace and playing the role of a neutralizer. However, Gordon has upside within his own style and Moises can occasionally wilt due to pacing. At a low public ownership, I’m willing to use some Gordon at 8.2k and I wouldn’t mind being near the field or even a bit overweight.
Moises isn’t my favorite fantasy target historically but at 8k, I think he has some upside.
It’s essentially the opposite of what we talked about with Gordon. Moises will want to slow the pace down but it’s very possible that Gordon will force exchanges. That means if Moises wins, it’s quite possible he’ll need to produce more offense than what’s average for him.
Primarily, I think Moises has some wrestling upside and I also think he has mild KD equity. Moises isn’t the most dangerous striker and I don’t love his volume, but we have seen Gordon knocked out a few times, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him hurt again in the future.
Moises is a strong grappler on paper as well, and 3-4 takedowns with some control time may be among his best paths to victory. That still doesn’t equal a smash on DK, but it’s going to give him a reasonable floor with some ceiling involved.
Moises is +285 to win ITD which isn’t great, but Gordon has been taken down 7x and 4x in a couple of recent matchups. Dawson also RNCd Gordon. So there’s some grappling upside here for Moises in a win.
I sort of lean toward not being as high on Moises though. I don’t actually trust him to go out there and wrestle successfully, and I don’t really trust his striking pacing either. I’d be afraid to fade him, but given Moises wants a slower paced fight, I think there’s a little more bust risk in his profile and 70-80 points in a win with two takedowns is a very viable outcome.
This is a tricky fight to analyze and not among the top priorities on the slate. If we’re getting low ownerships though, it’s a fight I’m willing to target to be different and I do lean toward the Gordon side for ceiling case.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gordon by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Connor Matthews vs. Yadier del Valle
Fight Odds: del Valle -515, Matthews +382
Odds to Finish: -115
DraftKings Salaries: del Valle 9.2k, Matthews 7k
Weight Class: 145
Another Contender Series contract winner enters the fray as Yadier del Valle will make his UFC debut this weekend against fellow alum Connor Matthews.
Del Valle is 8-0 professionally at age 28, and he’s earned two wins by knockout, two by submission and four by decision.
His victory on DWCS was fairly impressive, particularly his performance in the second round where del Valle pushed a super aggressive pace and put a beating on his opponent, landing 62 significant strikes in that round.
Unfortunately, it still wasn’t enough to get the knockout and I think it says a lot that he’s only been able to finish half of his regional fights, with only two coming by TKO. Del Valle is a boxer fighting out of the Southpaw stance, and that will be his primary path to victory, but he’s not a particularly special one and he doesn’t have one-punch knockout power.
I do think del Valle can be dangerous though, and that second round on DWCS is a great example of why. He is willing to push a pace, brawl, and create havoc. In those types of exchanges, de Valle can absolutely hurt opponents or wear them down, and I do think he can earn some stoppages at the UFC level with attrition.
It needs to be noted that his defense is not particularly strong though. He leaves his head on the center line and I think he’s pretty open to be hit. His durability seems reasonable, and his cardio is strong, so those X factors will help him. However, a more technical opponent might be able to pick him apart and potentially beat him up, due to that lack of defense.
So my general fear is that del Valle is going to excel in wars, but he just does not have the defense to hold up there longterm. However, his offensive rate is quite strong and his general boxing is fine, so he will have potential to win rounds and win fights against the mid-level or low-level of the promotion.
As a grappler, del Valle is mediocre. He will shoot for takedowns, and he can land them occasionally. He went 2/6 on DWCS with 5:46 of control, though some of that came from the clinch.
I don’t think del Valle is a particularly good submission grappler though, and he has a guillotine problem. I have seen him shoot for guillotines in the majority of his fights, and his most recent submission win was by guillotine. It’s just not ideal to attack for guillotines instead of defending takedowns, and it’s surely not ideal to sprawl and then give up position to attack a guillotine, which I have seen him do both.
I’ve also seen him take the back on occasion, and against a lower level of opponent, he’ll have some top game upside. But I can’t imagine del Valle consistently beating strong wrestlers and I don’t consider him a major submission threat outside of his guillotine attempts.
His pure takedown defense looks OK, but I don’t think it’s great. I’ve seen him give up takedowns and obviously give up position to attack the guillotines. He can be stuck on the bottom for bits of time and my guess is a strong wrestler will be able to control him.
Overall, del Valle should at least be in some exciting fights, and I like his ability to produce offense. I don’t particularly like his defense and I think his ceiling will be capped because of it.
Connor Matthews is fresh off back-to-back knockout losses against Jose Delgado and Dennis Buzukja, and with another loss on Saturday, Matthews will probably be cut from the promotion.
Matthews is now 32 years old with a 7-3 record, and he’s earned five wins by submission and one win by knockout. He actually fought on DWCS twice, first losing to Francis Marshall by decision in 2022, and he followed that up with a decision win against Jair Farias in 2023.
Matthews has a background as an Air Force combat controller, and he seems like a super tough guy although his durability isn’t holding up lately. That’s never a great thing to showcase as it typically means you are losing, but we did see him get beaten up pretty good in that Contender Series loss to Marshall, who took him down six times and landed more than 100 sig. strikes as well.
Otherwise, Matthews mostly rolled through his regional competition. The majority of his wins are super quick submissions, where he’s just taking the guy down, getting their back, and choking them out. It’s a good style for success, but quick wins against poor competition on the regional scene doesn’t usually mean a ton as far as how those skills will translate into the UFC, and thus far it hasn’t translated well.
I did like to see him return to DWCS and win a decision, which was the first of his career. He actually landed seven takedowns in that fight himself, and got the better of the striking exchanges as well.
He just likes to fight at a high pace. He can wrestle adequately and his submission grappling is decent. I’m unsure of his exact BJJ belt but I’d guess he’s mid-level. There are definitely situations I’ve seen from him on the mat that suggest he needs to tighten things up, but he’s pretty capable and should be able to easily outgrapple weak opponents.
Defensively there’s still a lot of room for growth. He was getting taken down too easily by Marshall and although he did fine to survive and scramble free, he will probably continue to give up takedowns again to good wrestlers.
As a striker, Matthews will still come forward and throw hands. He has some power, but he’s not the most technical guy. He has slowed down in both decisions and eaten a lot of strikes, so I worry about his defense.
Matthews’ two UFC bouts have not gone well which is certainly contributing to him being a large underdog in this spot against del Valle.
Matthews fought semi-competitively for the first two rounds against Buzukja, but was knocked out early in the third round. He only went 1/3 on takedowns which is a pretty poor sign as well, and was ultimately outlanded 83-60.
Most recently, Jose Delgado knocked Matthews out with a spinning backfist in the first round. Matthews did land a couple of takedowns early in the round but wasn’t able to earn any control.
It’s just not a good sign to see Matthews durability not holding up as his primary path to victory was based on toughness. I do like his ability to produce offense, but he hasn’t been able to control anyone at the UFC level yet and without that additional path to victory, it seems likely he’ll continue to get outstruck and probably hurt again.
As far as this matchup, I have to favor del Valle but I’m not even sure I can explain why, which isn’t the best sign.
I guess that I have faith in the pacing of de Valle, and at this point I’m not very confident in Matthews’ durability. But on a per-round basis, it would not be a surprise to see Matthews keep up with the volume of del Valle, and I’ve already noted defensive concerns with him as well.
I don’t think Matthews is a clearly better grappler than del Valle, but he might be able to take him down. And del Valle might just give up position jumping on guillotines. That could lead to some control for Matthews or potentially help him swing a round.
I suppose del Valle could also actually lock up a guillotine too, if he really attacks for it.
Assuming neither man gets hurt, this fight actually has the makings of a pretty competitive scrap. I do just trust del Valle more at this point, but there’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges and I wouldn’t be stunned if he got hurt or taken down. I do think of the two, del Valle is more likely to have an early burst of success that leads to a knockout as well.
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On DraftKings, del Valle is priced up to 9.2k which is fairly expensive, though he should have a solid floor of production.
On DWCS, del Valle landed 125 sig. strikes and two takedowns, and would have actually scored ~110 DK points. I don’t think he’s a lock to produce that much offense, but I generally do think 100 significant strikes and a couple of takedowns are in play. If he can produce those additional categories and rack up some non-sig. strikes + control, that’s when we really start questioning whether he can surpass 100+ in a win.
In this particular matchup, it’s worth noting that Matthews has already given up 110 sig. strikes + 7 TDs in a loss, and he was knocked down in his other two losses. If del Valle wins, I definitely think 80-90 points are in play, and with a finish, del Valle could smash.
He is only +110 to win ITD which is the issue, but it’s hard to be super confident he won’t hurt Matthews given Matthews recent issues. I wasn’t coming into this analysis wanting to play del Valle, but thinking about the pacing upside, I actually do think he’s a pretty viable target.
There’s simply risk of del Valle underperforming in a decision, which is perhaps the most likely outcome. If he doesn’t wrestle, his ceiling will be diminished as well. But there is certainly pacing upside, some finishing equity and and some grappling equity, and I’m just not that trusting of Matthews at the moment to risk fading those top-end outcomes.
I would only label del Valle a secondary target at 9.2k, but I think he’s in a pretty decent spot to reach a ceiling and I’d like some exposure to him on this slate. He fits well in more mid-range builds too which I am a fan of this week.
Matthews at 7k isn’t the worst target.
DWCS contract winners are typically overvalued, and we’ve seen undefeated fighters lose their 0s more than ever in the UFC this year. We know Matthews can fight at a decent pace, and we know he can shoot takedowns. Plus, we know del Valle has some defensive striking issues and can also give up top position.
If Matthews wins, I think it will come with a reasonable pace and multiple takedowns landed. I wouldn’t bet on a knockout or finish at +750 to win ITD, but I wouldn’t think a KD to be a shocking outcome either.
It’s going to be difficult to get much exposure to Matthews. He’s a big dog and just not very good. But I’m not completely sold on del Valle and I like the pacing of this fight. I don’t mind a sprinkle of Matthews for a cheap price, considering the discount on salary and the very low public ownership.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Del Valle by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa
Fight Odds: Santos -170, Lisboa +146
Odds to Finish: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.4k, Lisboa 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a pretty low-level fight here in the bantamweight division between Tainara Lisboa and Luana Santos.
So there was not a ton of tape on Lisboa before her UFC debut. She is a Brazilian fighter and is 7-2 professionally. Many of the girls she had fought on the regionals had losing records or no fights at all. So her competition had been terrible and it was hard to get a read on her.
On the regionals, Lisboa generally landed takedowns from the clinch and finished people from top position. She looked like an okay grappler and understood the clinch, but I wasn’t super impressed. She did seem physical though. I generally figured she would look to land takedowns in the UFC and that it would probably be her main path to victory.
Lisboa lost by RNC to Norma Dumont a few years back. She actually had a lot of success striking in that fight and hurt Dumont at times off strikes from the clinch. Lisboa evidently was a two-time world Muay Thai champion, so apparently she has some experience as a striker. She ended up getting taken down by Dumont though and choked out which wasn’t a great look.
It was just hard to get a read on Lisboa before her UFC debut. I hadn’t seen her defensive grappling in years. Her offensive grappling looked okay and she seemed somewhat physical, but she was facing a bunch of 0-0 girls. I didn’t have a real read on her striking or her cardio either even if she had a striking background.
Lisboa then took on Jessica-Rose Clark in her UFC debut. Lisboa honestly had a good performance against Clark. She was able to defend the takedowns of Clark in the first couple of rounds and just land power strikes at range and in the clinch. She actually hurt Clark a couple of times. In round three, Lisboa was put on her back though and I didn’t totally love her get-up game. She did eventually get up and submit Clark though. It was overall a decent performance.
In Lisboa’s second fight, she defeated Ravena Oliveira by decision. Lisboa won the first two rounds by taking Oliveira down and outgrappling her. Lisboa then lost round three by getting stuck on her back. I don’t really know what to think of Lisboa’s performance against Oliveira because I don’t really know if Oliveira is good or not. Lisboa did get passed at times which I didn’t love. I am a little skeptical of Lisboa on her back.
Overall, I feel like Lisboa is an okay fighter. Her offensive grappling is honestly not bad, and she can land takedowns and obtain some top control, and she knows BJJ from top position. Her defensive wrestling and TDD is not bad and she is physical. However, she can get stuck on her back at times. Her striking looks okay and she can crack a bit. I want to see more of her striking though, given her background. I am not sure Lisboa particularly will excel anywhere but she isn’t bad anywhere either. I think she is okay.
Lisboa will be taking on Luana Santos. Santos is now 3-1 in the UFC and 8-2 professionally. She knocked out Julianna Miller in her UFC debut and then beat Stephanie Egger in a decision by moderately outstriking Egger and obtaining some clinch control time. She then easily submitted Mariya Agapova.
I was pretty sure Santos was a fraud and I bet Casey O’Neil as an underdog in Santos’ last matchup. It ended up working out well too. Santos failed to land takedowns and got absolutely dominated on the feet. O’Neil outlanded Santos 83-41 in significant strikes and Santos looked absolutely awful.
Santos is a bit of a freestyle fighter, but she comes from a Judo background and has a black belt in the art. Santos is a competent grappler, she can obtain takedowns and get some control time. She can definitely take advantage of weak grapplers. However, I still hate that her takedowns are a bit too upper body reliant. Like many Judokas, she goes for many head-and-arm throws. I much more prefer takedowns below the waist. I have always said that about Judo reliant fighters.
Santos can definitely beat weak grapplers, but I did think there would come a point where those Judo takedowns wouldn’t work, and she should struggle. That happened against O’Neil.
Santos can kind of go through the motions on the feet, but I don’t think she is particularly good as a striker either. She is a borderline liability standing. She can manage range somewhat and land boxing combinations. I do not trust her standing at all though and good strikers will have their way with her. I also am skeptical of her defensive wrestling as I have seen her taken down and held down herself.
Also, I did not like the way Santos looked in round three against Stephanie Egger. She slowed down a bit and was taken down to end the round. It makes me think she may melt to a pace because the pace in that fight wasn’t even very high.
Overall, I just think Santos will easily win fights against girls with bad defensive grappling. Anyone who can stop takedowns will give her serious issues.
As far as this matchup goes, I am actually going to go with the underdog in Lisboa here.
On the feet, I think Lisboa is definitely better. I trust Lisboa more in the clinch, and I think Lisboa will generally get the better of the exchanges. I trust Lisboa’s striking background more too. I actually think Lisboa could even land takedowns if she wanted although it would probably be smarter for Lisboa to just disengage.
I am skeptical of Lisboa to a degree off her back though. So if Santos happens to get on top of Lisboa, Santos could probably obtain some control and maybe advance position. So Santos does have a path to victory. Lisboa doesn’t seem completely defenseless off her back though.
I am just skeptical of Santos’ takedowns though. They are all head and arm based and hard to trust. Her takedowns are clearly not going to work against anyone who is a competent defensive wrestler. Lisboa does have some low level wrinkles in her game. However, Lisboa’s pure TDD is honestly not bad. She fought off Clark easily and Clark probably has better pure takedowns than Santos.
I don’t think Santos will easily land takedowns throughout the fight so my guess is Lisboa can sprawl and brawl in spots and land the more damaging strikes.
I still do think Santos could land a takedown or two though. I don’t totally trust Lisboa to completely shut Santos’ takedowns for 15 minutes. However, if a takedown doesn’t result in a finish for Santos, I don’t think Santos can easily control Lisboa for 15 minutes and Santos may get tired too. So I am going to go with Lisboa here. I think Lisboa is a better striker and I think her TDD is good enough to at least get several stretches of a stand up fight.
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On DraftKings, this is a fairly low-level fight and it could be messy, and I’m not totally sure if I want to make any investment.
Of the two sides, I do prefer Lisboa at 7.8k, who more likely has line value on her side. I think she’s the better standard wrestler of the two.
Santos looks purely head-arm-throw Judo based to me, which I hate. Sure, she could land takedowns and I suppose it could lead her to victory, but those types of throws give up position just as often as they gain position.
Santos is priced up to 8.4k and I’m probably going to avoid her. She’s +385 to win ITD which is pretty poor, and I think she would need a finish to exceed value.
To her credit, she’s secured finishes in two of her three UFC wins, and her DK results have been strong because of it. She’s scored 101, 84 and 116 in her three wins. If anything, I hope that her DK results push her ownership higher.
It’s not that Santos doesn’t carry a ceiling, but a 1st RD KO over Julianna Miller and a 1st RD Sub over Agapova don’t mean much to me. Sure, if Santos can get another quick sub she can reach the optimal but that outcome doesn’t seem super likely to me.
Perhaps her floor is OK and perhaps Santos will need multiple takedowns to win. I just don’t consider her a very good grappler and I feel no need to chase her on this slate. I’ll end up quite light personally and my guess is she’ll fall into a semi-contrarian category.
Lisboa has scored 82 and 76 in her two wins, which isn’t particularly strong. She’s another fighter with real questionable upside, and she also has a +385 ITD line.
This is a difficult slate as many dogs lack finishing upside on paper. I don’t mind her for win equity though and I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Lisboa win. It could come from a couple of takedowns landed as well.
However, it’s unlikely that Lisboa will find a knockout and I doubt she has dominating control either, so I can’t be confident she’ll far exceed value even in a win. At 7.8k, I don’t mind secondary shares but her questionable upside puts her somewhat low on the priority list.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lisboa by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes
Fight Odds: Gomes -594, Reed +428
Odds to Finish: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Gomes 9.5k, Reed 6.7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a low end WMMA fight here between Denise Gomes and Elise Reed. Although I do think Gomes has some promise in her game and she is a decent prospect.
Gomes is now 4-2 in the UFC with her losses coming to Loma Lookboonmee and Angela Hill.
Gomes is best as a power striker. She actually has a Muay Thai kickboxing win over Marina Rodriguez.
Gomes is just a bull and is super aggressive. She throws really hard punches in the pocket and is capable of landing in volume. She landed 103 significant strikes in her Contender Series fight. She lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.11 in return.
Her offense doesn’t look all that technical and I do question her defense a bit. However, I do think her range control is decent and I do like her aggression and power. She has two knockout wins in the UFC which is good.
I think Gomes is going to do fine in the UFC based on her aggression and power alone. She just closes distance and pressures well and makes her opponents uncomfortable. She is definitely an above-average hitter for strawweight as well. Gomes can also turn her pressure into takedowns. I don’t think she is a good offensive grappler though, and she isn’t very technical. However, she can use her physicality vs weaker grapplers to get top position.
My main issue with Gomes is her takedown defense. She defends takedowns at 67 percent and was taken down by Loma Lookboonme four times on five attempts, and controlled for seven minutes. Gomes also gave up advances of position against Lookboonmee, and Hill also dominated Gomes on the mat.
Gomes was more recently taken down five times against Eduardo Moura. I do think Gomes’ get-ups looked a bit better vs Hill and Moura though. She isn’t a terrible defensive grappler, but she is a bit too power based, and tries to explode to escape and reverse position. She can defensively grapple against plenty of girls but good grapplers will have success against her.
I still do respect Gomes. She has power, and is super aggressive and seems experienced as a striker. Gomes also at least survives on the mat. She has never been submitted in her professional career. I think those qualities will keep her employed in the UFC.
Gomes will be taking on Elise Reed. Reed is mostly a distance striker. She lands 3.50 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.15 in return. Those are okay metrics but to be fair, Reed has only really outstruck really bad fighters.
I think Reed is actually okay on the feet though. She isn’t great and she doesn’t have a ton of power. However, she has a decent middle distance striking game and has some skills. She has some decent punching combinations and can mix in some kicks.
I still just think Reed is limited as a fighter though. She doesn’t mix in takedowns really. She lands 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes and only attempts about one per fight. She has only landed two takedowns in the UFC. Sure, she can win close striking based decisions on the feet. However, she isn’t a finisher and she doesn’t land takedowns. So her offense is limited which makes her ceiling to win clean rounds limited as well. She just has limited paths to victory.
Reed also isn’t the best defensive grappler. She defends takedowns at 56 percent and has actually conceded takedowns in all eight of her UFC fights. She just isn’t very physical on the mat and is susceptible to GNP. I don’t think she is completely terrible on the mat as she has some guard retention. However, she is just susceptible to being taken down and controlled for a little bit too long.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Gomes just has some physicality advantages here. Gomes clearly has more power and is more athletic than Reed. I honestly think those two things alone will carry Gomes to victory.
On the feet, I do think Reed can at least compete technically. I don’t think Reed is bad standing. However, Gomes just hits harder and we saw Reed really struggle in some striking exchanges against Godinez who had more power than her and hurt Reed badly. I just think Gomes is much more likely to hurt Reed than vice versa.
Furthermore, Reed has minimal grappling equity here and in most matchups. I just don’t think Reed is a good wrestler and she is at a physicality disadvantage here. I doubt Reed can take and hold Gomes down. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Gomes landed a takedown or two but I wouldn’t count on it because it is not really something Gomes tends to do. I still think if anyone has grappling success though it will be Gomes.
All in all, I just think Gomes is the more powerful fighter and much more likely to have big moments. I think Reed can technically compete at times on the feet but all and all I think the power of Gomes will be too much.
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On DraftKings, Gomes is priced up to 9.5k which is pretty expensive and definitely puts her in a precarious position of needing a big score.
I do think she’s capable of it, but I would most likely expect that result to come on the mat, and I’m not totally sure what her game plan will be.
Reed has been finished on the mat in all four of her UFC losses, which is extremely important to note. Eubanks TKOd her in the first round in her debut. Sam Hughes TKOd her in round three. And both Lookboonmee and Godinez submitted her.
Gomes isn’t the most proactive wrestler, but she can wrestle. She took Bruna Brasil down three times which is a result that looks better in hindsight, and she took Angela Hill down once as well.
I do think Gomes will wrestle here and I’d probably project her for a couple of takedowns. It is possible that with the top position, Gomes can land ground-and-pound and force a stoppage. She is only +140 to win ITD though.
Gomes also has power on the feet, but that’s not a spot I’d want to put myself in, hoping for WMMA power shots at 9.5k. She’d still have some finishing equity but that’s where Reed excels and she could honestly make rounds competitive at distance.
This is tough because I don’t think Gomes is a guarantee from a fantasy standpoint. She’s expensive. Her path to a ceiling may not even be the path she wants to take here.
However, Reed clearly has deficiencies on the mat, and at the least, Gomes seems like a decent pivot off Morales. A ground based finish is viable and that would give her a big score.
I would be willing to play Gomes on this slate. She may be hard to prioritize and I’d understand if you wanted to pay up for Morales or simply wanted to prioritize a cheaper option instead. The lower the public ownership on Gomes, the better. She’ll carry some ceiling risk but this is a fairly soft matchup as is indicated by her betting line, and I consider her a decent secondary target who could also potentially be sneaky.
Reed at 6.7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
I do think she can win the fight if it plays out at distance, but she can also lose the fight there too. A win would probably look like 80-100 significant strikes in a competitive decision. I’d be pretty shocked if she won ITD and her ITD line is only +950.
So ultimately, I just don’t see the upside. If you want to take a flier on 70 points in a win, at low ownership, then Reed will have some viability. But there are so many other dogs on this slate I’d rather roster and especially so when factoring in ceiling.
I’ll likely cross Reed out with a more limited portfolio and just chase win equity and ceiling elsewhere.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gomes by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
HyunSung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez
Fight Odds: Park -198, Hernandez +168
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Park 8.5k, Hernandez 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
HyunSung Park came into the UFC back in 2023 where he won the Road to UFC tournament and earned a contract. He made good on his 2nd UFC appearance later that year but a knee injury sidelined him all last year – he’s 9-0 as a pro. Carlso Hernandez earned a contract on the 2021 season of Contender Series in somewhat controversial fashion, and has been a hit or miss fighter thus far through his run, albeit drawing some stiff competition mixed in – he’s 3-3 in the UFC and 10-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Park’s been in a lot of quicker bouts, so we don’t have extensive distance time for him.
In what I’ve seen, he’s not a high output striker but picks and chooses his shots well. He’s also consistent in throwing combinations with some crisp boxing and sound low kicks.
One of his better attributes are his step in/check knees which he’s significantly hurt three past opponents with.
Park does have some pop in his punches and will commit to his strikes when he throws, but he hasn’t been the biggest hitter in terms of his hands although I have seen him hurt a couple of guys. Him knocking out Shannon Ross is largely meaningless though considering Ross had some of the worst durability in that weight class.
Defensively, he’s managed distance well at range and isn’t really absorbing many strikes, but he did get dropped in both his Road to UFC fights as he can be susceptible in blitzes. To his credit, he recovered quickly and showed solid composure in both instances.
Despite largely beating Shannon Ross up last time out, he still got outlanded at distance 46 to 36 which isn’t a great look, coupled with it taking him nearly two full rounds to finish a chinny ross – it also came via body shots.
Overall, he’s a technical striker who’s dangerous to a degree, but his linear Korean kickboxing style can allow opponents to come forward on him, and I don’t like his pace as it relates to the flyweight division.
Hernandez is a respectable striker and works a more outside kickboxing esque type of style.
He’s got some decent hand speed and can throw in combinations well, but his pacing can be inconsistent if he’s not able to dictate the exchanges. However, he’s a guy who’s fully capable of landing upwards of 100 significant strikes as well.
He’ll use some footwork, but he can be walked down at points, his guard can be worked around and he’s susceptible to kicks.
He’s never finished a fight via strikes but has historically been durable outside of getting blasted by Taira with a straight shot. But he also got hurt twice in his last fight against Tumendemberel which nearly cost him the fight.
I just feel his first three performances that extended have been underwhelming in some sense, including getting outstruck in the 2nd against Wells. He got landed on at a 50% clip against Barez and was also hurt in that fight. Then he was outstruck at distance by Altamirano in a fight that realistically could have gone the other way.
In his defense, Barez and Altamirano are respectable strikers. He more recently boxed up Bondar, but Bondar isn’t a base striker.
Overall, he’s a tough guy who’s relatively technical with a good work rate, but he also generally needs a comfortable rhythm to really separate himself, and he can be hurt.
How it plays out: This is your classic minutes versus moments dynamic on the feet with Hernandez profiling as the minute winner and Park as the moment winner. In saying that though, Hernandez has still struggled to separate in many fights, although I favor his general volume and footwork a lot more than I do Park’s. On the flip side though, Park will probably be the one marching forward for bigger stretches of the fight and has more potential to hurt Hernandez here, despite him being dropped twice himself recently. Interesting dynamic.
The wrestling/grappling component:
We’ve seen ground time in the majority of Park’s fights where he’s by and large gotten the better of his opponents. He’s not a great wrestler though and is pretty reliant on body locks against the fence.
But we’ve seen him get to the back of multiple opponents and be able to secure either RNCs or GNP finishes.
Defensively, he’s been taken down a handful of times and controlled a bit, but he’s always been able to work back to the feet or reverse positions. He’s not a guy who will accept being on bottom which I like despite not having picture perfect TDD.
Overall, he appears to be a capable grappler but may struggle against more physical/stronger wrestlers going forward – time will tell.
Hernandez comes from a wrestling background, but I’m unsure of his BJJ credentials. Most of his success as an amateur and as a pro has come on the mat via wrestling and securing submissions.
But his overall regional tape is scarce, so I wasn’t able to see much of this on display which on paper is his base.
His 1st pro loss did come via wrestling but to a former Cuban Olympian over eight years ago, so no real shame there. He got taken down a couple times against Wells but was able to pop up. He got grinded a bit by Barez but was able to capitalize on a slip from him in the 2nd round, and controlled him for the majority of that round, winning it. It didn’t come from a TD though.
Against Altamirano, he was taken down once but worked up relatively quickly – he also only went 2/9 himself which isn’t the best of looks considering Altamirano has historically struggled with his TDD. He got his back taken early by Nascimento and eventually succumbed to a RNC – Nascimento is a pretty sound black belt though.
He got taken down a few times by Bondar but showed good get ups and slammed Bondar on his head at the end of the fight. He showed good early scrambles against Taira but failed a TDA in which he found himself in dominant positions for the back half of the 1st round. In his defense, he was able to survive the GNP and sub attempt of Taira who’s a sound ground fighter.
He had some early struggles with grinding and chaining attempts of Tsuruya, dropping the first two rounds but realized offensive success himself in round three. Most recently, he landed four TDs against Tumendemberel, racking up nearly five minutes of control which aided him in getting that nod.
Overall, Hernandez is a capable offensive wrestler but he has struggled with ground control on per TD basis at times, and hasn’t posed much of a submission threat at the UFC level. He can be taken down himself but is generally a good scrambler and has really only struggled with high level wrestlers or black belts.
How it plays out: I don’t rate the offensive wrestling of either particularly high and feel both are competent TD defenders and scramblers. In terms of pursuit, I’m struggling to gauge who will be the more likely party but I feel both guys are capable of taking each other down. While Hernandez has shown some more defensive flaws in comparison to Park, there’s heavy context there in relation to level of competition. Park could get his back but I also think Hernandez is the most competent defensive grappler and scrambler that Park has fought, so I don’t think he’ll have an easy time submitting or controlling Hernandez.
Solid booking from the UFC matchmakers where I see a viable case for either fighter. The fight feels rather coin tossy but I ever so slightly lean more towards the Hernandez side as I trust his volume and cardio more over 15 minutes, and he’s just fought a way better level of competition. Park’s beating bottom of the barrel fighters and when he’s fought the “better” guys (I say better loosely), he’s had more struggles. But as touched on, Hernandez doesn’t have much finishing upside and is live to give away optics and/or bigger moments here which is why my take is a bit wishy washy.
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On DraftKings, you can make the case for Park as an upside target, but I’m not overly excited about him.
Park is 9-0 professionally and he’s only gone the distance one time. So in theory, his style is going to lead to more finishes and he has upside based on his profile. Hernandez is very difficult to finish, but at the same time, he has been subbed and he’s also been knocked out.
Park is +200 to win ITD here and makes for a fine tournament target at 8.5k. I think he’s relatively boom or bust, and will likely need a finish to exceed value. I cannot project even 80 sig. strikes for Park over three rounds, though to be fair he has grappling upside as well. I think Park is capable of a couple of takedowns and potentially some control upside, but I still believe he’ll need a finish to capitalize.
I don’t know. I’m pretty hesitant to play Park here, as Hernandez is a fairly technical and experienced fighter, and not easy to finish. Park hasn’t looked that great even against weaker competition, despite multiple comeback finishes.
I guess I would lean toward coming in near the field, or slightly underweight on Park. I worry that his last 119 point score will only make him popular, but that result just isn’t worth much in relation to this new matchup. Having exposure to him for ITD equity makes sense, but I’d want to be cautious personally with this step up in competition.
Hernandez at 7.7k just doesn’t have enough finishing equity for me to be excited.
I liked him quite a bit in his last fight but he didn’t come particularly close to finishing the fight, and he’s only +700 to win ITD here. I do think he could land a couple of takedowns but I doubt he does much with them.
Park has also been dropped by multiple opponents, so perhaps Hernandez has some KD equity. But he’s just not a power striker so that’s a tough thing to rely on. Hernandez has scored 77, 83 and 77 in his three UFC wins and I think we have to assume that average is the most likely base outcome for Hernandez in a win.
I do think he can win the fight here, and potentially exceed value at 7.7k, but I don’t necessarily see a 90+ point ceiling and so I’m also hesitant to recommend investing in him at any moderate rate. I’ll probably prioritize ceiling elsewhere but I don’t mind low-end shares of Hernandez for win equity in case we don’t see many underdogs come through.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro
Fight Odds: Pennington -326, Pinheiro +261
Odds to Finish: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Pennington 9.3k, Pinheiro 6.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two UFC veterans here as Tecia Pennington (formerly Torres) will be taking on Luana Pinheiro.
Pennington is a fairly well-rounded fighter with a ton of experience. She is coming off a big decision win against Carla Esparza in a very competitive fight.
I mostly consider Pennington a striker. She lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.53 in return. She is skilled as a striker and technical. She has outlanded her last four opponents and actually outlanded Angela Hill 144-96 in significant strikes in a very good performance. I generally respect Pennington on the feet, but I do wish she had a little more power.
Pennington isn’t a very effective offensive wrestler. She lands 0.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at 14 percent. She is okay as a defensive wrestler. She defends takedowns at 63 percent and can scramble up at times. She recently defended 9/10 takedowns against Tabatha Ricci which was good. Esparza had success vs. Pennington but Pennington did defend at times.
Overall, Pennington is a solid fighter at this weight class with a ton of experience. She can strike in volume and has good cardio, and is generally competent as a grappler. She has no major holes.
Pennington will be taking on Luana Pinheiro who is coming off a loss to Gillian Robertson.
Pinheiro comes from a Judo background and has a love for head-and-arm throws. She kept hitting that throw against Randa Markos and landed five takedowns because of it. I really don’t like those types of takedowns as it risks giving up your back. Although I think Pinheiro can land that takedown here and there, I don’t think she will take down and control above-average grapplers at this level. Her top control is just not great.
Pinheiro defends takedowns at 69 percent. I did not like what I saw against Angela Hill. In the first round, Pinheiro gave up a single leg and advances of position. Hill isn’t even known as an offensive wrestler either. Hill eventually won by guillotine choke in round two. It was a really bad look for Pinheiro overall. Pinheiro did survive Robertson though which actually surprised me to a degree. Pinheiro still didn’t look particularly good in that matchup either.
As a striker, I do think Pinheiro has a little bit of power. She has hurt and finished some girls. She has decently powerful hands and some good leg kicks. However, her volume just isn’t there. In her two UFC decisions, she only landed 60, 42 and 44 significant strikes.
Pinheiro also slows down. She can strike competitively early but I question her striking volume for a full 15 minutes. In her matchup against Amanda Ribas, she was winning early but slowed down dramatically and got knocked out in round three. She was outlanded 87-55 in significant strikes and the discrepancy in strikes would have gotten wider had round three continued. She also slowed down against Hill.
Pinheiro is just whatever. She is a threat and live to win early portions of fights. However, I do not trust her cardio at all and she does not strike well in volume for 15 minutes.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to go with Pennington because she has better cardio and is a better striker over the duration. I just doubt Pinheiro can win if this fight stays standing for the majority of the time. I think Pinheiro probably slows down against the pace of Pennington as well.
I do think Pinheiro could have some early success though. Pinheiro can probably strike competitively early and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if she landed takedowns early either, as Pennington’s defensive grappling is by no means bullet proof. I still just don’t trust Pinheiro to maintain success for 15 minutes though. I also doubt Pinheiro can hold Torres down for long durations. It would probably tire Pinheiro out if she tried.
My guess is Pinheiro competes early but eventually Torres’ striking edge and cardio take over. Torres could maybe hurt Pinheiro but I will pick Pinheiro to survive.
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On DraftKings, Pennington is priced up to 9.3k which will make her close to a fade for most of the public.
I can understand why. Pennington has minimal wrestling equity, and very minimal finishing equity. She has won ITD twice in 17 matchups and she’s only +450 to win ITD on Saturday, which is awful for the price.
In decisions, Pennington is scoring 65, 97, 71, 92, 81, 81, 80, and 85. There are a couple of OK performances in there, but the 97 score came against Angela Hill who is notoriously high paced.
I just think the most likely outcome here for Pennington is another 80 strikes, 0-1 takedowns, and maybe 60 points in a win. The base outcome has Pennington nowhere close to competing for the optimal.
You can argue she has “sneaky” finishing upside against Pinheiro who tends to slow down, but Pennington just isn’t that powerful, and Pinheiro may have some physical advantages. It’s simply not a risk I’m willing to take.
I would expect Pennington to be fully contrarian and potentially flirt with 10 percent ownership, so if you want somewhere to be unique, Pennington is an option. I don’t think she’s a good option though and I’d rather aim to be unique elsewhere.
Pinheiro at 6.9k has some viability.
The fight is -400 to go the distance, and it’s very possible it could be competitive. Pinheiro has landed a takedown in four of her seven matchups, and 1-2 takedowns against Torres are possible. I don’t think she has tremendous striking upside, but 60 sig. strikes are possible.
Essentially, Pinheiro could score 70 in a win. Her two decisions in the UFC scored 51 and 79. I don’t think she has much of any finishing equity here though, and she’s only +600 to win ITD.
I don’t hate Pinheiro for win equity at a very cheap price and for that purpose, she’s viable as a low-end target. But I don’t really see much upside for Pinheiro and I’d rather pay up to fighters with better shots at a ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pennington by Decision (Confidence=Medium)