Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong
Fight Odds: Song -270, Cejudo +222
Odds to end ITD: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Rodrigues 8.6k, Cannonier 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
The former bantamweight champion, flyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist, Henry Cejudo is giving MMA one last go as he’ll step into a main event against Song Yadong this weekend.
Cejudo isn’t guaranteed to retire on Saturday night, but he’s already retired once, and is past the point of needing to prove himself in this sport or any other. He’s a competitor though, and still arguably within reach of another title shot if he can get past Song.
Cejudo’s success in MMA has primarily come at flyweight, where he became the champion with a win over Demetrious Johnson in 2018. He then defeated TJ Dillashaw who dropped down for a shot of his own, and eventually stepped up to defeat Marlon Moraes for the bantamweight title in 2019. After defending his title against Dominick Cruz in 2020, Cejudo stepped away from the sport.
Like clockwork, he came back. In 2023 Cejudo was awarded a title shot against Aljamain Sterling where he lost, but fought tough over 25 minutes and actually won the fight on one judge’s scorecard. Most recently, he lost a decision to Merab Dvalishvili one year ago.
I don’t really blame Cejudo for those recent losses, as Sterling and Merab are two of the toughest tests in the division, especially from a wrestling perspective. That’s still where Cejudo is going to shine the brightest, given his pedigree, and he was still able to take Sterling down a few times.
Historically, Cejudo lands 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and he’s going to need wrestling success to win with consistency.
Unfortunately, Cejudo isn’t a great submission threat, and his wrestling has always been based on control in MMA. He has zero submission wins in 14 UFC bouts, and his TKO wins have come from striking.
Boxing is where Cejudo has developed the most since he made a move to professional MMA. He’s not a major volume threat, only landing 3.77 sig. strikes per minute, but he’s got fast hands and some pop, and only absorbs 3.29 sig. strikes per minute in return.
He’s simply not a bantamweight though, and that’s the biggest concern I have at this stage of his career. Cejudo is small. He’s 5’4” and is clearly a flyweight. At bantamweight, he’ll be outsized and outclassed.
Regardless, Cejudo is a tough out for any opponent. He can wrestle super well offensively and defensively, and he’s defensively sound enough on the feet to outpoint some opponents. He’s just not a major finishing threat.
Song Yadong is an interesting opponent for Cejudo.
Song is coming off a close loss to Petr Yan where he had a lot of early success, but slowed down and was beaten in rounds two and three.
Prior to that, Song was given three consecutive main events, where he first lost to Cory Sandhagen, but followed it up with wins over Ricky Simon and Chris Gutierrez.
I like Song overall, but I’ve never loved him. He’s a really good athlete and is still young at age 27. He’s athletic, fast, and has some pretty dangerous boxing. Song lands 4.49 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.96 per minute, which is pretty decent.
Song rarely runs away on the numbers though, and he doesn’t really use wrestling as a recourse either. He only lands 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes, though he’s actually landed five takedowns in his last four fights.
I wouldn’t expect offensive wrestling to be a primary path to victory for Song in this matchup anyways, and more likely, he’ll be forced to defend and keep the fight upright.
Song is typically decent at takedown defense and defends historically at 72 percent, but he hasn’t faced many elite wrestlers. Cody Stamann took him down five times in 2019. Marlon Vera took him down twice. Kyler Phillips took him down three times. Ricky Simon and Petr Yan each took him down twice. Song isn’t a bad wrestler, but I wouldn’t label him a great one, and it’s tough to see him end that fight against Yan being taken down, and held down for a period of time.
Now facing Cejudo, one of the best pure wrestlers in the sport, it’s hard to come away with the conclusion that Cejudo won’t have any success. Cejudo attempted eight takedowns against Sterling over five rounds, and another seven against Merab over three rounds.
If he continues at that same rate, it seems reasonable to think Cejudo can land 3-5 takedowns over five rounds against Song. With that, he may be able to earn some control and win rounds, or make them more competitive than they would be otherwise. Is it enough to win the fight straight up? I’m less sure about that since Cejudo isn’t much of a submission threat, and basic control isn’t a major scoring factor.
If this fight plays out purely on the feet, Song should have a much better shot. He’s going to be bigger than Cejudo, with four inches in height and a few inches in reach over him. Song hits harder than Cejudo does, and probably throws punches at a higher rate.
I do think Cejudo can still compete, but he’s going to have to slow the pace down, and kick from the outside. Work a technical game and avoid the big shots, and then capitalize on some wrestling attacks.
From a macro sense, this isn’t an ideal matchup for Cejudo. He’s undersized for this weight class and facing a better, harder-hitting athlete. But he’s also coming off two of the worst wrestling matchups in the division, and is likely being undervalued for that reason, especially as Song tends to give up some takedowns.
I lean toward Song having an edge per round with his straight boxing, but both guys are incredibly tough. Cejudo has only been knocked out once, which came from a body shot, and I don’t think Song will easily put him away. There’s a strong chance this fight extends in my mind, and goes the full 25 minute distance. I think Cejudo is pretty live to compete on rounds and if he can have more wrestling success than projected on paper, he can win the fight outright.
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On DraftKings, I actually don’t love Song this week at 8.9k and I have to think hard about whether I want to play him as heavily as a typical main event favorite.
He’s going to project OK, and his ITD line is only +165, but I kind of think he’s being overrated in that capacity this week. The fight itself is -170 to go the distance, and my expectation is that it goes the distance more often than not.
Assuming five rounds, what kind of offense will we see from Song even in a win? He’s eclipsed 100 sig. strikes a few times, but has also been more limited in other fights. I do think 100-140 sig. strikes is possible, but 120 only equates to an 80ish DK score.
It’s also possible that Song lands 1-2 takedowns, but it’s also very possible he lands none. Nobody outside of Demetrious Johnson, Merab and Aljo have ever taken Cejudo down, and for a base projection, you could sell me on o/u 0.5 for Song.
Point being, we may not have a ton of action for Song even in a win. He can land a fair amount of strikes, but wrestling and a knockout are far from certain. Cejudo tends to slow the striking pace down anyway and he could also hold Song down for periods of time.
I think Song has a reasonable floor in a win, but I don’t think a ceiling is guaranteed. Something like 80-90 DK points in a win is on the table, and it’s worth noting. While I still think Song is a very viable DK target for 8.9k, there are many potential finishers in this range, and I wouldn’t mind pivoting to them in hopes of more early ITD equity.
Cejudo at 7.3k is the easier target in my opinion, and probably who I’d look to first in cash games.
With the fight projected to last 25 minutes, Cejudo is quite likely to land 80-100 significant strikes and a few takedowns, giving him a strong floor overall. And if he can produce like that over five rounds, we may find the fight is competitive and he has a shot to take the decision.
I don’t think Cejudo has a great shot to finish though, and his ITD line is quite poor at +750 ITD. I also think there are plenty of dogs with win equity on this slate and some hope at an upside, so I’m not going to force Cejudo in at a high rate in tournaments.
I mostly consider him a decent secondary option, with a better floor than most others in this range. If we see all the dogs in this range lose, Cejudo is likely to outscore them. He could win a decision.
But I will still prioritize the more competitively lined fights, and the dogs with finishing equity when I am able to. If I have to pay down, I don’t mind a chunk of exposure on Cejudo at 7.3k.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Song by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez
Fight Odds: Hernandez -338, Allen +270
Odds to end ITD: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 9k, Allen 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Brendan Allen is a Contender Series alum from the 2019 season who’s proven his worth at 185 lbs and has been one of the more active fighters on the roster. He’ll be looking to get back in the win column after having his 7-fight win streak snapped back in September – he’s 12-3 in the UFC and 24-6 as a pro. Anthony Hernandez is a fellow Contender Series alum who had some early hiccups in his run but is currently riding a 6-fight win streak and now finds himself in the top 15 – he’s 7-2 in the UFC and 13-2 as a pro. This will actually be a rematch from 2018 before both guys came to the UFC where Hernandez bested Allen over five rounds for the LFA title.
The striking component:
Allen is a grappler by base but since moving down to Florida with Kill Cliff FC and Henry Hooft, we have seen bigger strides made in his stand up.
In general, I would say he just appears to be more comfortable now than before. His primary success has come in the mid-range or when he can be the pressure fighter dictating the exchanges.
He’s shown a good straight, an improved kicking game and some nice knees in the clinch. Statistically, he’s kept an okay work rate of 3.8 SLpM at 53%.
Over half of his fight time is spent grappling though so his distance numbers are more representative, landing 6 DLpM at 50%. He’s hurt a handful of opponents and will throw with intent, but still isn’t a guy I’d classify as a “gigantic hitter” per say.
However, his defense isn’t something that’s really caught up as he still eats 3.8 SApM, only defending at a 46% clip – at distance 6.8 DApM at 48% — not good. It’s been the higher volume strikers in Strickland and Curtis that have given him bigger issues and were also able to knock him out.
Secondarily, he’s susceptible to straights, the body and in the pocket. Pressure has been an issue for Allen. In Allen’s defense, he has fought some pretty sound strikers over the years as well.
Overall, I like some of the improvements I’ve seen from Allen, but he may still struggle with opposing volume and more technical parties.
Hernandez is a grappler by base, but we’ve seen him show aggressive components on the feet.
He does have a bad habit of overextending on his shots and can get off balance, so he’s not the most technical guy. At the same time, he pushes a high pace of 4.8 SLpM at 62% and 7 DLpM at 47%.
We saw him land some solid shots on Allen, blow the doors off Jordan Wright, beat up an exhausted Rodolfo Vieira and more recently do a lot better on the feet against Pereira than many people anticipated.
His last 3-4 fights didn’t have a ton of extended distance components to them where strike counts were close to evens in all four – however Fremd had pockets of success, Edmen did have a good first round and Kopylov was edging the exchanges. He had some success in the Park fight but was getting outboxed and was hurt on a few occasions.
We’ve also seen Hernandez susceptible to the body against both Perez and Holland which led to the finishes of those fights.
So, he’s a fighter with larger defensive liabilities, eating 7.2 DApM at 50% but his sheer pace, aggression and toughness is what has brought him a healthy amount of success as well.
How it plays out: I’m not sure how long this fight will take place on the feet but when it’s there, I’d assume it’s relatively competitive. Both guys throw a lot of volume and have poor defense where earlier exchanges probably favor Allen, and the latter exchanges may favor Hernandez. On paper though, Allen is a bit better technically and may have more critical hit upside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Allen is a BJJ black belt with the floor being a component of some of his UFC success.
However, he’s not anything special as an offensive wrestling talent, with middling metrics of 1.6 TDs per 15 minutes at 40%. Allen taking Jotko down as easily as he did in that outing was pretty impressive though.
Really, Allen’s credence is that he is a good grappler who can win transitionally and in scrambles – we saw this against Holland, Daukaus (to some extent), Roberson in the 50/50 position and with Malkoun. Him out grappling a world class guy in Muniz was pretty impressive as well which does show that Allen is game against anyone on the ground. Additionally, avoiding submissions from Craig who we know has a dangerous guard.
At the same time, his TDD defense is still poor at 55% and has lost minutes trading positions on the floor as well – in those same fights listed above, he also got controlled in those fights as well. Allen was also outwrestled by Malkoun, getting taken down seven times and controlled for seven minutes.
However, Malkoun lost position at some inopportune moments and Allen was able to get on top in that fight as well which ultimately swayed the judges – I personally felt Malkoun won that fight as did many others, but it was very close.
He more recently won the first round clean over Imavov but gassed out and conceded 5.5 minutes of control time in the latter rounds dropping that fight. Overall, Allen’s a plus grappler and he’s proven that. But I also can’t disregard the negative points for him on the mat as well.
Hernandez is a BJJ brown belt on paper but objectively, he’s of legit black belt pedigree and an aggressive grappler at that. He’s finished 8/13 pro wins via submission and really enjoys the front headlock series to set up his guillotines and anaconda chokes.
Similar to his high striking pace, he pushes a crazy wrestling pace as well, landing 6.7 TDs per 15 minutes at 44% — insane numbers.
He was able to take Park down six times, but the bulk of his control time did come against the cage – nonetheless was able to submit Park who’s a more than competent wrestler/grappler at the UFC level. We saw him put on a wrestling clinic against Fremd – landed eight TDs and accrued nearly 11 minutes of control time – he couldn’t submit the black belt in Fremd though.
He was able to do the same thing to Barriault and just wear him down with attrition, eventually leading to the submission in round three. More or less the same thing against Edmen although he did have to fend off one tighter guillotine and get out of mount.
We recently saw him put both Kopylov and Perreira through the ringer, eventually finishing both.
Hernandez is probably most well-known for one of the biggest upsets in 2021 where he was able to submit a BJJ World Champion in Rodolfo Vieira – granted that was a product of Vieira gassing after three minutes but he was still able to survive dominant positions early against an elite grappler – very impressive.
Defensively, Perez was able to lock up an anaconda on him but that was also after he was hurt to the body. Vieira had initial success but couldn’t mount any significant attempts – Fremd reversed him in the 2nd which led to Fremd winning the round.
But generally, he’s going to be a difficult guy to hold down, let alone submit because he’s constantly working and is a general entry level threat when opponents shoot.
Overall, he’s not a phenomenal pure “technical” wrestler but he brings a level of attrition/cardio-based wrestling that he meshes incredibly well with his submission game, making the guy an absolute handful to deal with.
How it plays out: I like Hernandez on the floor here. While both guys have had some issues with defensive wrestling, I simply trust Hernandez to be more active in his pursuit and I generally feel he’s the better MMA grappler. Allen does have some quality submission wins but also against gassy guard players. Hernandez is one of the best scramblers in the UFC who we know can go for days, while we’ve seen Allen slow in numerous matchup when provided with more resistance. As noted, these guys did fight before where Hernandez got the better of the grappling in totality to win on top time over five rounds against Allen – it wasn’t complete domination though as Allen did win round one and had pockets of success in round four. Nonetheless, I like Hernandez to land more TDs and win in the positions again.
Fun rebooking and rematch I never thought we’d see. But I see this fight playing similarly to the first one where Allen may have some early success but I see Hernandez being the better grappler, gaining more control and producing more offense generally. I don’t think it will be easy to finish Allen though.
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On DraftKings, it’s quite possible Hernandez is one of, if not the most popular fighter outright on the entire slate.
He’s proven to be a DraftKings gold mine, and is coming off a massive 192 point win in a main event. Prior to that, his wins have scored 107, 116, 120, 117, 94 and 135. Hernandez is one of the very best DK scorers in the sport today.
Because of that, he’s going to be a tough fighter to fade. Especially in a matchup he has already won, which by the way was another super fun fight.
With that said, Allen is not the best matchup for Hernandez to reach a ceiling. Allen is a grappler by trade, and a BJJ black belt. He’s experienced on the mat and he’s already fought Hernandez, so he knows what to expect.
Hernandez couldn’t finish Allen over five rounds and I think it’s pretty likely this fight will extend as well. Hernandez is only +185 to win ITD. Allen also had early wrestling success so it’s possible that he could take the back of Hernandez and limit his overall upside.
It’s not the worst spot in the world to consider an underweight stance, all things considered. If we see Hernandez at massive chalk and he wins a competitive decision, he may not easily outscore everyone else in this tier. We have many strong options from 8.5-9.7k this week.
If Hernandez wins though, his floor/ceiling combination is still very strong. I would expect several takedowns, lots of control, and ground strikes mixed in. He can also get a couple of reversals which we saw him accrue in the first matchup.
Even if it’s a competitive decision, we could see Hernandez in the 80-90 point range and if he can win comfortably, Hernandez has 120+ upside again. At 9k, he’s just tough to get away from.
I’m not saying I for sure will force Hernandez in across the board, but I expect to be heavy on him on this slate. I don’t LOVE some of the immediate pivots and so it feels more worth it for me to buy into the grappling upside of Hernandez.
At the end of the day, it’s just tough to get away from a guy averaging 125+ points in his UFC wins. He should be chalky though.
Allen at 7.2k is a decent tournament target I think.
Primarily, Allen can grapple and it wouldn’t be that crazy for him to win two rounds. It’s important to remember that the upside for Hernandez lies in pacing and not necessarily pure technique. He’s not some beast striker, nor wrestler. His pace is beastly though.
Allen is probably superior to him on the feet and is probably a more skilled submission grappler too. He is a good back taker and took the back of Hernandez a couple of times in the first fight. He could land a few takedowns here.
I don’t think Allen will have an easy time winning and he’ll probably get exhausted trying to grapple, but if Hernandez forces a pace, which I expect, it just means Allen’s floor/ceiling combo is also greatly raised in a win. So while I’m not sure he wins or sure it looks easy, if Allen wins, he’s going to have to produce a lot of points.
As it’s a rematch with an opponent he’s familiar with, in a style of fighting he’s comfortable with, I don’t want to completely overlook Allen. At 7.2k, he’ll provide plenty of leverage and upside. He’s +525 to win ITD for what it’s worth.
I like Allen as a secondary target on this slate and I wouldn’t mind being a bit over the field even. This kind of fight is very likely to produce a strong score from the winner and as Allen already won one or two rounds in the first matchup, I’m not ruling out some success in this rematch. Having moderate to heavy exposure to the fight overall with a moderate lean toward Hernandez is probably where I will land.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Rob Font vs. Jean Matsumoto
Fight Odds: Font -150, Matsumoto +130
Odds to end ITD: +220
DraftKings Salaries: Matsumoto 8.6k, Font 7.6k
Weight Class: 135 (Catchweight)
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After Rob Font’s original opponent Dominick Cruz pulled out and retired, we have Jean Matsumoto stepping up on short notice to fight Rob Font.
Matsumoto won by submission in his UFC debut against Dan Argueta. Matsumoto was taken down nine times in that fight and was losing early. However, he kept resisting and working up, and eventually submitted the exhausted Argueta.
Matsumoto then won a very competitive decision against the very tough Brad Katona. The fight was back and forth. They each landed 89 significant strikes. Katona had a couple of more takedowns but neither guy could really consolidate top position. I honestly think the fight could have gone either way, but Matsumoto probably landed a few more hard shots in timely moments. Katona landed some good ones too though. It was a good fight and was very 50/50.
Matsumoto is 16-0 now and generally fought poor competition on the regional scene. Matsumoto booked his ticket to the UFC by winning a decision on the Contender Series against Kasey Tanner. Matsumoto landed 100 significant strikes and absorbed 99 in that fight. He was rightfully awarded the decision as he landed the more impactful strikes and landed some nasty low kicks. He definitely showed he was UFC level in the Katona fight. I think he is a solid fighter.
Matsumoto is kind of a freestyle fighter, but I think he is best as a striker. He is somewhat technical and powerful as a striker. He can put together some crisp boxing combinations, has a little power, and has some good low kicks. He also has decent volume, and is aggressive with good cardio. He also seems very tough and hits pretty hard. He is a fun fighter to watch.
I still think Matsumoto is a bit hittable for my liking, but I do think he can outstrike the low to mid tier fighters in this division no problem. He just takes a decent amount of shots and even Katona busted him up.
Matsumoto can also occasionally land takedowns and he has a dangerous guillotine choke. I don’t think he is a great offensive wrestler though, and I think his top game is non-existent.
I question the defensive wrestling of Matsumoto to a degree. I have seen this guy taken down a lot against somewhat weak wrestlers, and Argueta had a lot of success as well. His tdd isn’t terrible though and occasionally he can put together a decent sprawl or threaten with a guillotine. His TDD isn’t good though either at 57 percent, and I have seen him controlled for stretches in fights. He at least works up and is physical though, and is always resisting which can cause opponents to tire.
Good grapplers can probably take advantage of him but average grapplers will probably struggle and I do think his defensive wrestling looked improved vs Katona.
I like Matsumoto though. I have come around on him. He is a tough guy with some good volume, low kicks, cardio, and toughness. He is also pretty dangerous and fights very hard. Also, even though Matsumoto is taking this fight on short notice, he was actually scheduled to fight Chris Gutierrez in a couple of weeks. So I think he was actually in camp and I don’t think this is a true short notice fight.
Matsuomoto will be taking on Rob Font, who is coming off a huge upset decision win over Kyler Phillips.
Font is generally a good fighter. He fights at a high pace and has a ton of offense in his game. I generally consider him a striker and he has a great jab that compliments his length. Font lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.58 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. He has good metrics and is a solid striker. He also has reasonable pop and is capable of hurting guys.
Font is also a reasonably capable grappler. He lands 0.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of landing some takedowns and offense on the mat from time to time.
I have generally always really liked Font as a fighter. I have cashed on him as an underdog against Yanez and Moraes. However, with all of that being said, I really do think he has looked off in some fights lately. His competition has been stellar. However, he is getting badly hurt in almost every fight and almost every round nowadays. He also gave up 15 takedowns in his last three fights and is only defending takedowns at 44 percent now.
Font just looks declined which makes sense given he is now 37 years old, which is an advanced age for a bantamweight. I think my confidence in him has just generally decreased.
I won’t completely write him off yet as the upset win over Kyler Phillips was a pleasant surprise. However, Phillips was beating Font pretty clearly early and just gassed out. So I don’t totally know what to make of Font. It was a good performance and a win I didn’t expect, but Font didn’t beat a guy who was fresh for the full 15 minutes.
Font basically weathered an early storm and then beat a guy in Phillips for two rounds who was very tired. I am not going to write Font off at all as I really respect his historical skills, but I am still a bit skeptical of him given some of his losses in recent fights.
As far as this matchup goes, this should be a banger. Both guys are aggressive.
I don’t think either guy will have a ton of top time grappling success. However, I could see a takedown or two landed by either guy. I still think whoever wins the striking exchanges will win the fight though so I will generally focus on that.
I honestly think I am just going to pick Matsumoto because of the durability advantage and because of the potential of Font showing up looking old. Font may be able to hurt Matsumoto as Matsumoto is hittable and Font can pack a punch. However, Font landing a knockdown or knockout would at least mildly surprise me. On the other hand, Matsumoto hurting Font is something I honestly expect and it wouldn’t surprise me at all. Just because I think Matsumoto is more likely to have big moments on the feet is enough alone for me to favor him.
Outside of big moments, I think this will be a back and forth, entertaining war. I do question the defense of Matsumoto, so Font just being able to land in general seems likely. I think Font can land the jab. So Font does have a chance here. He has a ton of experience.
Font’s durability just worries me so much and although he beat a tired Phillips on the feet, Font just looked horrible on the feet against a low volume Deiveson Figuereido. I can’t get that performance out of my head along with all the recent examples of Font being badly hurt or dropped.
I am just going to go with Matsuomoto here. I think I am gravitating towards his youth and form more. We know we are getting a Matsumoto who will show up and look like himself as he is young.
If the best Font shows up, sure he very well could win. However, I just think in most of Font’s fights lately, he hasn’t looked himself and I really hate his durability. So I will go with Matsumoto here to have a few bigger moments and get the win.
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On DraftKings, I am somewhat interested in Matsumoto though I think he will need a knockout to be optimal.
It just comes down to the durability of Font. He’s experienced and a solid fighter, but he’s been getting hurt a lot. If this fight is a war, I don’t know if he will hold up and I’d give Matsumoto some KD equity in that kind of battle.
I also like the pacing of this matchup in general, and I think both sides have mild wrestling equity. Font is now defending takedowns at 44 percent and he can be held down. So there are ways for Matsumoto to score.
At 8.6k, he still probably needs a TKO which is the tricky part. His last decision scored 78 points, which isn’t enough. And he’s only +350 to win ITD here so he won’t project very well.
I guess I would label Matsumoto as an intriguing contrarian target. Aslan, Menifield, Song and Hernandez will all draw a lot of ownership, and they are all priced next to Matsumoto. That could leave him severely overlooked and under owned.
I do rate all of those options above Matsumoto, who is a clear risk and probably more of a longshot play. But the pacing is nice, and I think it’s plausible for him to mix in a KD and score 90-100, even in a decision. If he can find a finish he’ll likely clear 100 and contend for the optimal for sure.
I won’t have a ton of exposure here, but it’s probably smart to be cautious with Font’s durability at this stage and Matsumoto is an OK prospect. He’s a viable contrarian target this week.
Font at 7.6k is OK but he’s not my favorite dog on the board.
I think he could reasonably win a decision, and he strikes at a high pace. There’s just a real risk that he underperforms even in a win.
Font could wrestle, but it’s not a guarantee and I don’t think he’d have any extended success with it. He’s only landed one takedown in his last four matchups. He’s also not likely to win ITD at +500 and a decision is clearly the most likely path for Font.
So I just worry we’ll find ourselves in a situation where Font wins a close decision, lands 100 significant strikes, and scores 70-80 DK points. At 7.6k, that’s not terrible, but it’s probably not optimal either. Font’s last two three-round decision wins scored 58 and 73.
He’s cheap enough here to mix him in as a low-end secondary target, but I just don’t love the ceiling prospects for Font in this matchup, so I won’t prioritize him personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Matsumoto by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Ion Cutelaba vs. Ibo Aslan
Fight Odds: Aslan -177, Cutelaba +152
Odds to end ITD: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Aslan 8.5k, Cutelaba 7.7k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Ion Cutelaba’s entering his 10th year in the UFC and has managed to keep a roster spot despite his inconsistency and underwhelming UFC record – he’s 7-9-1 in the promotion and 18-10-1 as a pro. Ibo Aslan’s a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season who earned a contract and has made good on his first two UFC showings – he’s 14-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Cutelaba’s a heavy handed, intense individual but a guy that has largely lacked process.
He comes into his fights with a chip on his shoulder and is largely trying to take guys’ heads off. Statistically, he lands 4.3 SLpM at 43% and 4.2 DLpM at 33%.
We’ve even seen him put a guy like Glover Teixeira in some deep waters early on, but eventually he gassed and got finished. Somewhat similar song and dance against Cannonier and Jacoby but he didn’t get finished – just dropped the last two rounds.
But because a lot of his fights have finished early, that will skew his metrics a bit, though I do think they are representative.
Traditionally, Cutelaba’s been reckless which is a testament to his striking defense numbers sitting at 3.3 SApM at 48% and 4.4 DApM at 50%.
Against Clark, we saw a much more composed/tactical Cutelaba when the fight was standing, and he was picking and choosing his shots well. The Spann and Walker fights had little distance time. He went wild on the feet again against Kennedy, got hurt and finished in the 2nd round. He also unloaded on Boser, getting him out of there early. He had moments against Lins but got his leg chewed off and was effectively outstruck.
More recently, we saw a more composed Cutelaba again where he hurt Erslan early but largely fought composed and got the better of the overall exchanges – the distance numbers were still close at 38 to 33 though.
Overall, Cutelaba is still by and large a meme, kill or be killed type of guy but has his jekyll and hyde tactical approaches which have worked sometimes, but not always.
I’m unsure of Aslan’s official background but he profiles as a kickboxer and is best as a striker.
Despite having 15 pro fights, our footage on him is pretty limited given that he’s only been outside of the 1st round three times.
He was a lot more reckless in some of the early tape I found of him, but it does look like he’s reeled things back a bit in the last couple fights in terms of being a bit more processed in shot selection and utilizing the low leg kick. But still, when he smells blood in the water, he goes hard and has shown significant power components, finishing all 14 of his wins via KO/TKO.
I still don’t like how he can overcommit to strikes though, and his head doesn’t move much off the center line when he’s throwing. To his credit, I’ve never seen him significantly hurt but that also ties in with him fighting cans for the large bulk of his career where he’s faced very little resistance.
However, we did see Valentin and Turkalj crack him with some bigger shots when those fights were at space.
Turkalj actually won the 1st round of their 2nd contest on the feet which I thought was alarming considering he’s not a very good striker. But despite Aslan slowing a bit there, he was able to be the more effective guy in round two and eventually found the chin of Turkalj who’s historically been very durable. He most recently put Cerqueira down early.
Overall, the UFC’s 205 lb weight class is pretty shallow, so I’d assume Aslan’s going to realize some more bonk success against lower-middling talents. But he’s still not an overtly proven commodity in more extended exchanges and hasn’t fought anyone that I would consider a UFC level striker.
How it plays out: There’s a healthy amount of variance here given Cutelaba’s whole career, coupled with Aslan still not being a proven striker against anyone meaningful. Cutelaba will definitely be the hardest hitter Aslan has fought to date and can realistically KO anyone given the proper openings. However, we have seen more chin concerns with Cutelaba (partially due to sample) and I do feel Aslan is the better technical kickboxer of the two. He also rips leg kicks which we saw give big issues to Cutelaba against Lins. So I side more with Aslan on the feet.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Cutelaba comes from a greco roman wrestling and sambo background. Statistically, he lands 4.04 TDs per 15 minutes at 52%.
So, he is reliable to wrestle and he’s had success most notably against Cannonier, Rountree, Jacoby (early), Clark, Kennedy (early), Boser (early) and Erslan.
However, he struggled to hold Cannonier down in an extended fight but looked very good against Rountree and Jacoby early – his gas held much better against Clark and was able to beat him up good over the course of 15 minutes, nearly stopping him on multiple occasions via GNP.
We saw him land multiple TDs on Spann but did struggle to control him and eventually succumbed to a guillotine. It was a similar story against Walker where he had early success but actually got his back taken and was submitted by Walker which is not a good look at all.
We haven’t seen Cutelaba have to defensively wrestle much but he hasn’t looked good on bottom in the times we have.
He was submitted in his debut by Cirkunov, Antigulov took him down three times before gassing and got some control time, Teixeira didn’t officially land a TD but caught a kick, passed his guard, took his back and submitted him with ease and we even saw Jacoby land a TD at the end of their fight. Lins found points of success and Erslan, by and large top timed him in round three.
So, the general sample of actual takedown attempts against Cutelaba isn’t vast but he’s largely shit on his back and a poor defensive grappler.
Last point to reference, he went 8/11 on TDs against Jacoby in the 1st round – he then went 1/7 in the 2nd round and 0/1 in the 3rd.
Overall, he’s a good entry-based wrestler with sound GNP but of his 17 UFC fights, he’s only had extended wrestling success once. Cutelaba largely hasn’t had the cardio/control to sustain his taxing-based style, is poor on the bottom and only winning 52% of control positions despite his base.
Similar to the striking, there’s not a ton to say here with Aslan.
He’s got a bunch of positional TKO finishes but he doesn’t really wrestle and is getting on top of guys from either hurting them standing, stuffing initial entry shots or reversing ground positions.
He was able to take down Turkalj in the 1st round of their 1st contest, landed some GNP but Turkalj worked up after a minute. He got on top again in the 2nd round after dropping him with a leg kick, but Turkalj worked up again after roughly a minute. Aslan was looking pretty tired after that, Turkalj took him down from the body lock, took the back and subbed him shortly after.
However, he stuffed all eight of Turkalj’s shots in their rematch last year. But we also saw him get mounted twice against Valentin and give the back up there too. Valentin just couldn’t capitalize and Aslan bump swept him a few times. That fight was back in 2018 though.
Overall, he can stuff sloppy entries and finish incompetent people but he looks pretty bad on the bottom and will likely struggle with more capable ground fighters of a UFC level.
How it plays out: On paper, the ground upside goes to Cutelaba and he will be the best wrestler Aslan has fought to date. But our sample of Aslan on the bottom is minimal and his TDD looked better against Turkalj in the 2nd go around. He still may be a fish though where Cutelaba could smash him. But as noted, Cutelaba’s a poor control wrestler and loses positions all the time where I wouldn’t be shocked if Aslan was able to get on top and do damage himself.
This fight’s a mess for everything I ran through. Aslan’s still getting his feet wet in the UFC and hasn’t really fought anyone but seems like a decent prospect. On the flip, Cutelaba’s one of the most inconsistent fighters on the entire roster and has largely collapsed at the early signs of adversity. I’ll take Aslan for the win primarily because I just think he’s the tougher guy with more heart. Not confident though.
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On DraftKings, I like the early finishing potential for this matchup so by default it’s one of the matchups I’m pretty interested in.
Aslan is the favorite and is priced at 8.5k, and I think he has early KO upside. He may get significant traction coming off a 126 point, one-minute KO. And he’s -135 to win ITD here against an opponent in Cutelaba who we’ve seen finished many times.
Cutelaba is priced at 7.7k and generally wins via hulk smash, so his upside has been tremendous. He’s had wins of 131, 107, 119, 127 and 108 for example. Most recently Cutelaba did actually win a decision and only scored 74 DK points.
The matchup is a bit scary for the reasons Luke outlined. Cutelaba is very inconsistent, and we also have a pretty weak sample on Aslan, but it is one that doesn’t make me feel exceptionally confident.
I think the easiest answer is to play a significant chunk of this matchup. Aslan will rate out extremely well for RD 1/2 KO upside which is how he primarily wins anyways. He’s only 8.5k. He could certainly hurt Cutelaba early or have him gassed by round two.
I wouldn’t expect to be much overweight to Aslan and it’s also important to note that he will likely bust in an extended fight, as we saw with his 85 point 3rd round KO win in his debut. Cutelaba has fought a bit slower in his last two fights, which relates to his inconsistency, so there is some risk that Aslan gets an extended fight due to no fault of his own.
On the other hand, Cutelaba is the best fighter Aslan has ever fought, and he’s super experienced. He’s a gasser and a quitter, but he’s physical, powerful, and has some wrestling capabilities. I think Cutelaba can win this fight ITD given some of the questions we’ve seen from Aslan on his back, and Cutelaba is +250 to win ITD which is a pretty decent mark.
My guess is that due to recent box scores, Cutelaba won’t be nearly as popular as Aslan too. He’ll likely provide direct leverage against Aslan and carries value for that purpose.
Ultimately, this is high-variance hell. I wouldn’t feel safe with any outcome. I wouldn’t build all-in for this fight, and I think it’s pretty risky to move your exposure heavily toward either side.
But the fight is -350 to end ITD, and -125 to end in Under 1.5 rounds. At mid-range prices, with two typically aggressive fighters, I’ll likely invest moderately overall and hope that someone gets finished quickly. I suppose I’ll lean slightly toward Aslan overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aslan by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Jean Silva vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan
Fight Odds: Silva -530, Baghdasaryan
Odds to end ITD: -175
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9.5k, Baghdasaryan 6.7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an absolute banger on our hands here as strikers Jean Silva and Melsik Baghdasaryan will duke it out.
I have been skeptical of Jean Silva. I didn’t pick him to win the Charles Jourdain fight, but he put on a good performance and hurt Jourdain several times, and eventually knocked him out. It was definitely a good performance and made me respect Silva more in striking matchups.
Silva then stepped up on short notice in his most recent fight against Drew Dober, up a weight class. The fight was more competitive than people may remember as Dober actually outlanded Silva 59-53 in strikes. However, Silva landed all of the big power shots and hurt Dober several times. He then won by doctor stoppage via cut. It was definitely a good performance by Silva, and I do think he is clearly a very dangerous, power based striker.
Silva booked his ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series with a striking based decision. He outlanded his opponent 87-71 in significant strikes and landed the heavier shots in the matchup. He then knocked out Westin Wilson in round one in his UFC debut. Then he beat Jourdain and Dober as I mentioned above.
Silva is mostly a power striker. I consider him to have good hands and he has power in the pocket. I definitely think he can continue to knock out fighters at this level. I like his aggression at times too and he can use it to make opponents uncomfortable.
However, I am not sure he is great defensively as a striker. He looks susceptible to kicks. He also doesn’t look to wrestle offensively so he is limited to striking as a path to victory.
Furthermore, there is not a ton of tape on Silva regionally. However, I found his most recent loss where he was easily outwrestled and mounted for entire rounds. The bout took place in 2018 so perhaps he has improved. However, we haven’t seen much of his defensive grappling and have never seen it against any good grapplers. My guess is that he will get exposed on the mat at some point. Even Jourdain landed a couple of takedowns on him.
I definitely am still a bit skeptical of Silva compared to the market and I absolutely think he will get exposed on the mat at some point. However, I do think he is UFC level as far as a power based striker goes, and he will give a lot of people problems there. The Jourdain and Dober wins were great performances. I definitely think he is overrated at this point though.
Silva will be taking on Melsik Baghdasaryan. Baghdasaryan is a striker through and through, and comes from a kickboxing background. He is a former world champion kickboxer. Baghdasaryan has solid metrics. He lands 5.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.06 in return. I like his distance control a lot on the feet. He is really fast.
Baghdasaryan has a good kicking game and uses a great rear kick out of the southpaw stance. He will work the body and mix it up to the legs and head as well. He hasn’t been knocking many people out in the UFC, but I do think he has power. He also has some good straight punches and will mix in some occasional spinning strikes. Baghdasaryan can continue to win striking fights at this level.
Baghdasaryan’s defensive wrestling is okay. He defends takedowns at 72 percent. He did get his back taken and choked out in his most recent loss vs Josh Culibao which was a bit concerning. However, he generally urgently works up and isn’t a major defensive wrestling liability.
As far as his matchup goes, I absolutely think this line is off. -600 for Silva in a striking fight vs a former world champion kickboxer seems insane to me. I honestly wouldn’t even play Silva here if he was -150. Picking Silva to win is fair, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Baghdasaryan pulled off the upset this weekend.
These guys are likely going to strike for the majority of the minutes here. On the feet, I think Silva has more power in his hands and can have success in the pocket. Silva also puts up a higher pace at times, and I do think that could give Baghdasaryan issues. So if Silva wins off aggression and power shots via knockout or a power based decision, it wouldn’t surprise me. I really think Silva needs to land in close quarters and his power needs to show up to win.
However, I really think Baghdasaryan can compete here. I think Baghdasaryan is a much better kicker and he manages range well. Silva looks susceptible to kicks to me. Baghdasaryan is a southpaw and always lands his rear kicks to the body on orthodox fighters which Silva is. You even saw Dober land that rear body kick on Silva the few times he threw it. I absolutely think Baghdasaryan can keep this at kicking range at times, and just land power based kicks on the outside and get ahead on the scorecards.
Baghdasaryan has also been pretty durable. He has never been knocked out in MMA and has only been knocked out one time in his kickboxing career back in 2016.
I don’t know man. Silva -600 seems insane and I basically think this is a very competitive striking fight. Melsik has a technical advantage with range control and a kicking advantage, while Silva has a power advantage in his hands in close quarters. When you also bake in the variance of striking fights, Melsik definitely has a chance for the upset here. I am actually going to pick Baghdasaryan here. This line seems ridiculous to me.
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On DraftKings, Silva is one of the most expensive fighters on the slate at 9.5k.
He’s coming off the impressive win over Dober which scored 66 points, but he had scored 115 and 104 in his two fights prior. I think he’ll be a popular target this weekend though his ownership will definitely be limited by the strength of the other fighters in this range.
I don’t have a super strong opinion on the matchup. Silva is a fine power striker and Baghdasaryan is a pretty solid kickboxer. I definitely wouldn’t line the fight this wide and I think Tim makes reasonable points that it could be competitive. This entire “Fighting Nerds” team feels a bit overrated at the moment, with Ruffy and Prates and others. They’re all solid though and I love the camp name.
I will say that in favor of Silva, I’d have to lean toward him for wrestling equity as well. I don’t know if he even wants to wrestle, but Baghdasaryan isn’t spectacular there and Silva attempts a few takedowns here and there. I can’t really expect him to dominate but I do think he has an additional path to winning and scoring on the mat.
Otherwise, yeah, if Silva doesn’t just knock Baghdasaryan out, it should be reasonably competitive and Baghdasaryan could even be ahead at times on volume. I think Silva will have the better optics though.
He’ll certainly need a finish at 9.5k to compete with the optimal, which I don’t think is an easy task. Baghdasaryan isn’t absorbing strikes at a high rate and his defense is solid. Silva is still -170 to win ITD which is incredibly strong.
For early KO potential, Silva is absolutely in play. However, he’s very expensive and there’s always some merit to avoiding these ultra expensive fighters and paying down a bit more. Even if Silva performs great and scores 104 points again, there is no guarantee of the optimal.
Also, I just don’t really love the setup for Silva’s upside. If he wrestles urgently and finds a quick sub then so be it, but that’s tough to project. If these guys are gonna strike, I don’t really want a ton of exposure to Silva and I’d prefer Abdul-Malik and others over him straight up.
Silva rates out well and is a dangerous fighter but at 9.5k against a skilled kickboxer, I will very likely come in underweight to the field.
Baghdasaryan at 6.7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot, outside of pure salary savings.
I do think we’ll see multiple underdogs win on this slate, so I’m less inclined to punt for the sake of punting, hoping my fighter can survive to a competitive decision win. I do think that’s on the table here, but does it even score well?
In Baghdasaryan’s last two decision wins, he’s scored 59 and 61. Silva won’t absorb an incredible number of strikes, and Baghdasaryan isn’t likely to wrestle. A knockout is possible but he’s only +1000 to win ITD.
If Baghdasaryan wins, I think another 80 sig. strikes and a decision is the most likely outcome. It’s not a terrible play in a small percent of lineups, if you need the salary relief, but I would much rather chase underdog upside and win equity overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Julius Walker
Fight Odds: Menifield -220, Walker +185
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Menifield 8.7k, Walker 7.5k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After Alonzo Menifield’s original matchup on a future March card was scrapped, the UFC shuffled the deck a bit and now Menifield has a new opponent in UFC debutant Julius Walker, who will be taking this on a week’s notice.
Menifield is alright. He has some issues, but he has some things going for him as well.
Mostly, Menifield is just very powerful especially early in fights when he is fresh. He has a lot of power on the feet and is capable of knocking out anyone in the division. He won a power based decision against Dustin Jacoby as well by hurting Jacoby badly over a couple of rounds.
He basically just wings hooks and also can mix in close quarter strikes in the clinch. He lands 3.77 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.70 in return, and generally wins striking fights via power based knockouts or random power based decisions.
Menifield is also a sneaky capable offensive grappler. He only lands 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes but against weak opponents, he can take people down and beat them up. We saw that against Fabio Cherant. He took Cherant down and finished him quickly. He also has a decent guillotine choke that he can deter takedowns with. We also saw him submit Jimmy Crute with that choke in their second fight. Menifield can also land big ground-and-pound from top position as well. He is also decent at defending takedowns at 76 percent.
The issue is Menifield generally fights in bursts, doesn’t have the best gas tank and is not the best fighter over the duration. We have seen him tired and beaten up on the feet with volume. We have also seen him defend takedowns early, be forced to grapple more, and then get taken down and controlled later. So I will always be a bit concerned with Menifield when fights extend as his gas tank is not strong. I still consider Menifield UFC level, capable, and very dangerous though.
Menifield will be taking on UFC debutant Julius Walker who is taking this fight on a week’s notice.
So Walker fights out of my home state of Missouri and doesn’t come from much of a martial arts background. He was actually a D2 basketball player at Drury, so he has an athletic base but not necessarily the right one for pro MMA. He is 25 years old and 6-0 professionally, but he actually has three amateur losses which all took place in 2021, so his resume isn’t perfect.
This guy just hasn’t really beaten anyone good and is very unproven. He took down and finished a fat, out of shape former UFC fighter Bevon Lewis. However, Lewis has lost every single regional fight he has been in since he exited the UFC, so that win doesn’t do much for me.
Walker’s other best win is a triangle choke from the bottom against Nyle Bartling who is a failed Ultimate Fighter reject. Bartling was actually winning that fight early and was outwrestling Walker pretty easily too. All of Walker’s other wins have basically come against bums who were fat out of shape fighters.
I personally don’t think Walker looks like a great prospect long term. He is big at 6’4” though. He mostly likes to grapple. He will clinch opponents up and look to take them down, get their back, and just choke them out or beat them up with ground-and-pound. I do think he has okay BJJ. However, I don’t really think his wrestling is that good. His game also just seems a bit loose and he can lose position. I have also seen this guy taken down a ton and he may get outwrestled himself.
I think the best part about Walker is that he is long, tenacious and seems reasonably tough. He will clinch hard and try hard and stay tenacious. That can tire some fighters out. I don’t know much about his durability because he hasn’t really fought anyone capable of testing it.
On the feet, Walker may be a liability. We haven’t seen him at distance much but he doesn’t look too interested in striking besides mixing in some close quarter strikes while pursuing the clinch. He looks like he is uncomfortable striking me. He did hurt Lewis in close range but that was more so Lewis looking terrible than anything.
I don’t know man. Walker doesn’t look great to me. I do think he can submit some weak grapplers at this level. He can maybe tire some opponents out too. However, I don’t even know about that or if his cardio is good because he hasn’t faced much resistance. I just don’t know where he can thrive. He likes to grapple but isn’t a great wrestler. He also looks like a defensive wrestling liability and may be terrible on the feet as well.
This is just a massive step up in competition for Walker. Menifield has plenty of flaws, but I can’t pick a guy with Walker’s resume to come in cold to a UFC debut and beat a very dangerous fighter in Menifield. This is also a massive step down in competition for Menifield. Menifield is 2-2 in his last four UFC fights against Jimmy Crute, Dustin Jacoby, Carlos Ulberg, and Azamat Murzakonov lol. Just on the experience alone, I have to pick Menifield to win.
I think the path to victory that I imagine for Walker is that he just keeps trying to grapple and clinch, eventually tires Menifield out and then has success on the mat with a finish or by riding out top position. It wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world. Maybe he can clip Menifield too. Walker is also four inches taller than Menifield so perhaps that size difference gives Menifield issue.
I still just think this may be a levels fight. Menifield may honestly be better at everything. I also really think Walker will struggle landing takedowns unless Menifield is tired. Walker could run into a guillotine as well. So I think Menifield will definitely have some early success while both of these guys are fresh. Menifield may honestly just knock Walker out quickly. I also could also see Menifield taking Walker down and beating him up. I definitely think Menifield can take Walker down.
My guess is the early success of Menifield leads to a finish or just discourages Walker. So I am going to pick Menifield here based on experience and the advantages he should have early in this fight. I think for Walker to win, it will have to be later on when Menifield is fatigued.
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On DraftKings, I have mild interest in this fight by default. It’s -400 to end inside the distance and we know both fighters are capable of finishes.
I actually like Walker a bit more than Tim does. I agree with the general sentiment though. Walker hasn’t been fully tested and he’s still kind of green. I do respect the work ethic that it takes to compete at the D2 level, even if it’s in basketball, and I honestly think Walker looks fine in his regional tape.
I like that Walker pursues takedowns, and in the fight referenced where he was getting out wrestled early, he survived some dangerous positions and came back to win in the second round. His cardio held up there and he doesn’t seem like a quitter.
Walker isn’t a physical specimen but he’s athletic enough which is a huge part of MMA. I don’t think he has great striking but I’ve seen him throw leg kicks. He seems functional and could still be improving. His grappling is OK.
A part of it too is that Menifield really isn’t special. He’s physical and he hits hard but he barely outlands any of his opponents because he can’t keep up a high pace. He also doesn’t really wrestle and we’ve seen him get tired. We’ve now seen him knocked out twice in a row.
Menifield is definitely more physical than Walker and I think he can defend takedowns early. He might just KO Walker early. I don’t see any reason to be particularly confident in Menifield though as the vast majority of his career success has come in round one and he’s also shown a variety of weaknesses.
Menifield is priced at 8.7k this week, and he’s a fine tournament target. I would hate him at 9.2k but at 8.7k, I think having mild-moderate exposure makes sense.
He has clear early KO upside in his profile and is -140 to win ITD here. I don’t love him but I think if he wins, it’s probably an early TKO. I’m not confident enough in Walker on short notice to fade that.
I do sort of expect Menifield to be popular at this price but I’m fine with coming in near the field. I don’t really want to take a stand on this spot. Having moderate exposure and near the field percentage makes sense to me given the upside and price, but Menifield is purely boom or bust which is why I’ll always be cautious with him and cap my ownership to a degree.
Walker at 7.5k is a reasonable tournament target as well.
I worry a lot about the physicality in this matchup, but Walker is a competent grappler. If he wins, it’s likely with takedowns, and he could have the outright submission advantage from top position.
He’s also long, and can throw down. While I don’t think he’d win striking exchanges with Menifield, Walker has never been knocked out and Menifield is coming off back-to-back KO losses. Walker is also big and athletic.
Walker is actually only +240 to win ITD here too which is a strong line. At 7.5k, he seems like an easy secondary target who has some finishing equity.
I don’t love Walker, and you don’t have to play a lot of him. He may get trucked. But I do like him a little bit and think he has some win equity, via grappling, variance or in an extended fight. Considering the upside and leverage I’m happy to take some shares in tournaments.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Menifield by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Andre Fili vs. Melquizael Costa
Fight Odds: Costa -114, Fili +100
Odds to end ITD: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Fili 8.2k, Costa 8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an evenly lined fight here between Andre Fili and Melquizael Costa.
I have never minded Fili. He is a decent striker, landing 3.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.11 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. Those aren’t the best striking numbers but Fili has fought good competition.
Fili is a sharp counter striker capable of landing knockouts with precise shots. He has good straight punches that complement his long frame, and he can also mix in some decent kicks.
I also consider Fili a competent grappler. He actually lands 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and I consider him an underrated offensive wrestler. He has a really good double leg. I don’t consider Fili’s top game all that great. However, he can hold position against weak grapplers.
Defensively, Fili is decent as a wrestler. He defends takedowns at 70 percent and is a capable scrambler once taken down. Good wrestlers like Bryce Mitchell can have success against Fili. However, I think average or below-average grapplers will generally be neutralized by Fili.
My main concern with Fili is his chin / age. He has been knocked out in two of his last three losses, including a first round knockout in his most recent loss against Dan Ige. However, to be fair to him, he has only been knocked out twice in the last 10 years which spans 17 fights, which honestly kind of surprised me.
I still think Fili looks decent. Fili just won his most recent fight against Cub Swanson. Swanson is actually not bad and has great pressure and cardio, and Fili stayed composed in that fight, landed some punches and strategically mixed in grappling when he needed to.
Fili will be taking on Melquizael Costa. I thought Costa looked good vs Austin Lingo in 2023, in a mostly striking battle where Costa outlanded Lingo 100-39 in significant strikes. He then gassed himself out and got knocked out when he tried outwrestling Steve Garcia. That was a strange performance, but I still do think Costa has some decent wrinkles in his game.
Costa is now 21-7 professionally and fights out of Brazil. Standing out of the Southpaw stance, Costa likes to come forward and strike. He is aggressive and he likes to use his rear kick to the body. He is basically always throwing his rear kick and will also use it to the head.
Costa has a good kicking game. He can also fight going backwards and has decent hands as well. I was actually impressed by his defense against Lingo as well. He controlled range well in that fight.
I generally think Costa is a pretty decent striker and will compete just fine in striking fights. I consider him moderately dangerous with pretty good cardio. He still hasn’t faced a ton of good strikers though. Lingo is bad even though Costa looked good there. The way he wilted against Garcia was at least a bit concerning.
On the mat, Costa has some BJJ and wrestling in his game offensively, but he isn’t a great defensive grappler. Thiago Moises took him down four times and eventually submitted him. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke also took him down four times, and controlled Costa for stretches. He scrambles up okay at times, but he needs to work on his defensive grappling.
Costa isn’t an awful defensive grappler, but it is definitely not a strength of his and he will get exposed on the mat again by an above-average grappler. I do like Costa’s back taking and body triangling / RNC game. He isn’t a good wrestler or control grappler, but he is tricky with his back takes.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a nicely matched fight where I slightly lean Fili based on experience and he is probably a bit better as a wrestler.
On the feet, I think Fili has the better hands and more power in his hands. I sneakily think Fili can hurt Costa as I still just hated the way Costa responded to the power of Garcia. Costa hasn’t fought a ton of good strikers and I consider Fili pretty solid. So Fili may just turn out to be better here.
I do think Costa is better with his kicks though. He could have some success to the body. Perhaps he can test the chin of Fili too. However, I really did start leaning Fili the more I taped, which is something I didn’t expect. I think Fili’s hands are definitely better, and I think they will consistently land more and cause more damage than the kicks of Costa. Fili generally avoided body kicks well in most fights that I watched. I still consider the striking competitive though.
As far as the grappling goes, I think Fili is the better wrestler and can probably land a couple of takedowns here and get a bit of control time. So that is another reason why I lean Fili. I do think Costa could maybe get the back of Fili. However, I think Costa easily taking Fili down and holding him down outside of a body triangle will be tough. I just don’t consider Costa’s traditional wrestling to be that good.
Overall, I think I just lean Fili slightly. I like his hands a bit more and his takedowns a bit more. The fight is still well matched though and Costa is fairly dangerous. However, I am going to lean towards experience here as Fili’s losses have truly come against all good fighters. Costa just hasn’t beaten any good fighters yet for me to pick him.
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On DraftKings, this is another mid-range matchup that will probably be overlooked due to the strength of other matchups surrounding it.
My guess is that with Costa becoming a favorite on the moneyline, he’ll now be the more popular fighter at 8k, with Fili priced above him at 8.2k.
However, neither fighter has a clear, obvious path to a ceiling. Costa has wins of 84 and 92, and I don’t think he will easily finish Fili. He’s only +360 to win ITD.
With that said, Fili has been knocked down in each of his last three losses. Similar to Font, there’s some risk with Fili just showing up looking old, and getting hurt. I don’t consider Costa a dangerous knockout threat, but it’s not impossible for him to hurt Fili.
Plus, Costa has some grappling equity. For him to win, he’ll need to produce offense. I do think the base outcome is Costa landing like 80 significant strikes and a takedown, which would only put him in the 70-80 point range. Clearly that won’t be enough.
And that’s the overall concern. The base outcome really isn’t enough. Costa’s skill set isn’t one that I’d trust for many ceiling outcomes, and I won’t be playing him too much, especially if he’s popular for value reasons. However, there’s some narrative based merit in that he’s more youthful, he can grapple, and Fili can be hurt.
If you want to use Costa as a secondary target for value/savings with some narrative upside, I can understand that. I don’t see the need to target him aggressively, personally.
Fili at 8.2k probably won’t be owned much at all. The public loves to fade him and he’s only getting older.
Now the betting line has flipped to Costa, and I just don’t see many people chasing Fili exposure coming off a 74 point win. Personally, I can’t say I will be excited to target him either.
However, Fili does have the better ITD line here at +275 which is interesting. He’s far more experienced than Costa at the top levels, and he does pack power. Costa has also been finished in both of his UFC losses, including a weird early KO to Garcia.
I think it’s possible that Fili could hurt Costa. Even in his recent fights, Fili still has two knockdowns and he is willing to go to war. That’s a style of fighting that could suit him here and he’s probably tougher than Costa. He could also land takedowns, as Costa’s defense has looked weak.
It’s very hard to say that I am interested in targeting Fili on this slate, but I would categorize him as a place to be unique, which does help the interest. He probably will be very low owned overall, and he should carry leverage against Costa.
I still think the base outcome probably is not good enough, but there’s some more narrative based upside and his ITD line overall is better. It’s not the worst spot to mix in a bit if you’re playing in the mid range, though my expectation is still a competitive fight here that extends and misses the optimal.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fili by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Nick Klein
Fight Odds: Abdul-Malik -1149, Klein +704
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Abdul-Malik 9.7k, Klein 6.5k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two Contender Series alums here in Mansur Abdul-Malik and Nick Klein.
Abdul-Malik made his UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic a few months back. Abdul-Malik hurt Todorovic on the feet early. He then TKO Todorovic with ground-and-pound as Todorovic idiotically insisted on going for leg locks. On the Contender Series, Abdul-Malik won by second round ground-and-pound as well.
Abdul-Malik is just a physical freak of nature and a great athlete. He is 27 years old and 7-0 professionally, finishing all of his opponents with most of those finishes coming in round one.
Abdul-Malik comes from a wrestling background and was a state champion in Maryland which is an okay high school wrestling state. He wrestled for the University of Maryland but didn’t have a ton of success. I do think he looks like a decent wrestler though.
Abdul-Malik is just so physically strong, powerful, and athletic. He can wrestle a bit. When he is on top, he has some DEVASTATING ground-and-pound. He can just beat the crap out of guys from top position. His takedown defense also looks decent but I do want to see him tested more as a grappler in general.
Abdul-Malik is also a really powerful striker. He throws a lot of hooks and his hands are developing. He can knock people dead and he has some speed. He just has so much power. I just think Abdul-Malik’s physicality / power based game on the feet and on the mat can give a lot of people issues.
I also liked seeing Abdul-Malik tested a bit on the Contender Series. He didn’t get really tired in round two, and finished his opponent at the end of round two. So I do not label Abdul-Malik as a finish or bust type of fighter. Had I not seen that performance, I would have been skeptical of Abdul-Malik in extended fights, but that was a great sign.
I think my main concern with Abdul-Malik is that he is still raw and developing. He is just kind of green. He is definitely not a finished product yet so he could potentially have some holes. His defensive striking looks a bit suspect and he was tagged a bit on the Contender Series. An experienced skilled striker could probably give him issues. I also saw him badly hurt on the regionals in one fight. So he definitely isn’t invincible.
I do think Abdul-Malik is improving though. His offensive striking from 2021 was honestly not even very good, and it looks WAY better now. So I like seeing improvement, and I am actually interested in Abdul-Malik as a prospect and could see him as a ranked middleweight at some point.
Abdul-Malik will be taking on Nick Klein who will be making his UFC debut. Klein is 6-1 professionally and is 29 years old. He booked his ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series by quickly taking his opponent down and submitting him via RNC. On the regionals, Klein basically fought crappy competition.
Klein is basically a grappler. He looks to land takedowns, get the back and get an RNC. He has okay takedowns and has a decent understanding of BJJ. I do like his tenacity to a degree.
The issue is Klein is just not very good as a wrestler and he isn’t very physical. He is also a pretty poor athlete. His striking also looks like a liability.
In Klein’s one loss to Dorian Dokaj, Klein basically couldn’t outgrapple Dokaj because Dokaj was too physical for Klein. Klein got hurt on the feet and ended up on bottom for portions of time, and just got beaten up. Klein was eventually finished with ground-and-pound. Klein also slowed down which was a concern.
I can’t watch that fight and give Klein much of a chance against Abdul-Malik. Dokaj was exponentially more physical and athletic than Klein, and Abdul-Malik is levels above Dokaj from a skill and physicality perspective.
I think this is an absolute mismatch, and I would truly be stunned if Klein won. I don’t think Klein can really strike with Abdul-Malik without getting badly hurt because of the power and athletic difference. I also doubt Klein can land takedowns here. The physicality mismatch here is absolutely crazy. I think Abdul-Malik will just probably hurt Klein early when they exchange. Abdul-Malik can probably land ground-and-pound and finish Klein on the mat if Abdul-Malik ends up on top as well.
I can’t even craft out much of a path to victory for Klein other than sometimes crazy things happen in MMA. Maybe Klein lands a Hail Mary punch or gets a back take. I doubt it though, and I think Klein is just in a ridiculously tough matchup this weekend. The physicality difference is huge. Klein is also a grappling dependent fighter and even skillfully, Abdul-Malik is the better wrestler on paper.
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On DraftKings, Abdul-Malik is priced all the way up to 9.7k which is probably appropriate as he’s pushing -1200 on the betting line.
He’s also coming off a dominant UFC debut win where he scored 115 DK points so if he was any cheaper, he would have been absolute chalk here. I still think he’ll draw a lot of attention but perhaps at 9.7k, his ownership ceiling will be capped.
There’s always merit to fading or being light on these types. Mathematically speaking, fighters priced at 9.7k won’t have an “easy” time being optimal. Not only do they need a smash DK score, but they still have to rely on outperforming the rest of the range and they need a cheap enough dog win where paying up is viable.
So if you simply cannot afford Abdul-Malik, that’s fine. If you want to prioritize another 9k fighter for the savings ahead of him, that’s fine too.
With that said, Abdul-Malik will definitely top the charts as the best tournament play on the slate for his combination of floor and ceiling. He’s a massive favorite, and he’s -475 to win ITD, with a heavy -140 line to win in round one as well. Those are elite metrics.
Plus, his style is going to lead to big scores. He’s aggressive, and can wrestle, and he throws a lot of ground-and-pound. He’s still boom or bust in the sense of needing an earlyish finish to capitalize on DK upside, but that outcome seems very possible.
I don’t think Klein is terrible. He has some wrestling and BJJ experience and he works hard. Abdul-Malik can probably find a way to get on top of him though, or hurt him on the feet, as the skill and physicality difference is a major edge toward Abdul-Malik.
So if I have the salary to pay up, I’ll be playing Abdul-Malik. I like him straight up over the rest of the 9k range anyway, with the possible exception of Hernandez. He’s an elite play in all formats.
As I am skeptical about a few others in the 9k range, I probably will try to pay up more often than I would on a different slate. I’m just most confident in Abdul-Malik winning and that win should very often come with a strong DK score. A great play if you can afford him, regardless of the price.
Klein at 6.5k is only viable in the sense that variance exists in our sport and in this division. He will also carry heavy leverage against Abdul-Malik.
If Klein wins, he’s going to score very well too. I would guess it comes with takedowns or a random KD. Or via cardio if Abdul-Malik randomly gasses. It’s not impossible.
With a limited portfolio, I don’t see the need to really play Klein though. Especially as I think other heavy dogs have actual realistic chances of winning.
If you are max entering then a very small percent of Klein is fine. But he’ll very likely get crushed and I’d prefer most other dogs in the 6k and lower 7k range over Klein straight up.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Abdul-Malik by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)
Ricky Simon vs. Javid Basharat
Fight Odds: Basharat -254, Simon +211
Odds to end ITD: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Basharat 9.1k, Simon 7.1k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am looking forward to seeing Javid Basharat get back in the Octagon this weekend and he gets to fight a well respected UFC veteran in Ricky Simon.
Basharat is a solid striker. He controls distance well and is just super composed on the feet. He mixes in a healthy dose of kicks and punches. I also really like how he mixes it up to the body. He lands 5.42 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.97 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 62 percent.
Basharat is also a great defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 85 percent. Basharat showed awesome defensive grappling against Jones and Gravely. He stuffed all three of Jones’ takedown attempts quite easily. He showed advanced techniques like limp legging out of single legs, etc. His defensive grappling also looked awesome against Gravely. He got taken down a couple times but scrambled out beautifully.
Basharat can also mix in offensive wrestling himself and he has ruthless ground-and-pound. He lands 1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes which is solid. I also think he is a capable submission grappler with front chokes. He has several submission wins on the regional scene.
Basharat is simply a good fighter. He has a lot of offense and is great defensively. I like Basharat.
Basharat did lose his last fight against Aiemann Zahabi as a huge favorite though. It was a major surprise at the time. However, Zahabi has turned out to be a very good technical striker and defensive fighter, and it was extremely competitive. Zahabi outlanded Basharat 75-67 in significant strikes, and in hindsight Zahabi was just super underrated and improved, and the betting market didn’t realize it. So I don’t blame Basharat too much for that loss.
Basharat will be taking on Ricky Simon. I have generally liked Simon as he is a high volume wrestler with pretty good cardio, but he has really underperformed in his last three fights against Song Yadong, Mario Bautista, and Vinicius Oliveira. Those fighters are all solid, but Simon does look a bit worn down and declined to me. However, I will analyze his historical skillset.
Simon lands a solid 5.20 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts nearly 11 takedowns a fight. That is an incredible takedown rate and Simon should crush most below-average grapplers in this division fighting at that pace. Simon has legit takedowns with a great double leg.
Simon’s TDD is extremely good as he defends takedowns at 75 percent. Almost all of his takedowns conceded in the UFC were to Merab and there is no shame in that. Merab couldn’t even really control Simon on the mat though and only obtained 2:42 of control time on Simon. Simon is just a very good defensive grappler.
However, I have always worried about Simon’s top control against good wrestlers. I think he can control and overwhelm low tier to average grapplers. He has really dominated some bad grapplers on the mat which is fine. However, he has struggled to hold down some of the more competent grapplers that he has faced. For example, he took Rob Font down six times in 15 minutes and only obtained three minutes of control. He took down Ray Borg seven times and only obtained five minutes of control. He also really struggled holding down Yadong, Bautista, and Oliveira. Those last three guys then basically dominated Simon on the feet.
The striking is really the problem with Simon. He has historically been an okay striker. However, he lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.84 in return and has looked worse and worse striking in recent fights. I don’t have a ton of faith in Simon on the feet. He is an athletic and explosive dude so he is capable of stringing together some powerful strikes and landing hard. However, I don’t think he is super skilled on the feet and capable of landing a ton in volume.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Basharat should be at a pretty clear striking edge here. He honestly could probably double Simon up at range similar to what Oliveira and Bautista did. I think Simon’s best chance on the feet is to land something big and that is about it. Basharat seems quite durable so that may be tough.
Simon could probably land some takedowns though. However, I don’t think the takedowns will come easy. I especially think Simon will struggle controlling Basharat as we have seen Basharat scramble up very well on the mat.
I think the matchup analysis is pretty clear here. Basharat will most likely minimize the grappling of Simon and outstrike Simon to a striking based decision. He may be able to hurt Simon and finish him but Simon is pretty tough and I will pick him to survive.
I think Simon needs to basically land damage to win. He needs to land a knockout or spread a couple of power shots and a couple of takedowns over a couple of rounds. Both seem like a narrow path to victory and I think Basharat is durable and defensive enough to stop that from happening a large majority of the time. So I will pick Basharat to win here.
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On DraftKings, this isn’t a fight I’m super interested in and probably won’t have much of an investment. It should be a decent real-life fight though.
Basharat is priced up to 9.1k and that’s just too expensive for what he offers in this matchup. He’s capable of landing in volume, but I don’t think he has a great wrestling ceiling against Simon and he could be shut out of takedowns completely.
More importantly, Basharat is only +285 to win ITD and I wouldn’t expect a finish. Simon could be hurt, or submitted, but Basharat just rates out much better as a round winner than a finisher. In this 9k range, we have at least three other high-end finishing options and that doesn’t include the main event favorite at 8.9k, so there’s really no way to prioritize Basharat.
With that said, I don’t think he’ll be popular and he could be sub 15 percent owned in spots. He’s scored 99, 83 and 66 in his three decision wins which is a pretty wide range. There is upside there, but I do think it primarily comes with wrestling which I wouldn’t count on for this matchup.
I like Basharat in general because he can produce offense. He can strike and wrestle. There’s variance in exchanges and Simon has been looking pretty bad recently. If Basharat can string together offense early and find a mid-round finish, he can still clear 100 points. There’s some contrarian merit to him because of that.
But the most likely outcome is an extended fight, and minimal wrestling success for Basharat. I cannot prioritize him with a limited portfolio and I’ll likely be quite light overall.
Simon at 7.1k is a fine floor target but not one I’ll really be invested in.
I like his profile and I like that he can land 5+ takedowns, but I just don’t see him having real success in this matchup. Even if he lands 2-3 takedowns which is very plausible, I don’t think he can control Basharat which just means he’ll need to outstrike him.
Still, the fight could go 15 minutes and it could be semi-competitive. Simon has scored 98, 107, 101, and 89 in recent decision wins. He has lots of upside in his profile. He’s a fine, low-end, cheap secondary target at 7.1k and he could be the highest scorer in this bottom tier in a loss.
I do think we’ll see dogs win on this card and I don’t think Simon has a ton of win equity. I don’t think he has a ton of finishing equity at +900 ITD. I respect the defense of Basharat.
So outside of some floor based merit I won’t really be targeting Simon this week personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Basharat by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Austin Vanderford
Fight Odds: Veretennikov -120, Vanderford +100
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Veretennikov 8.4k, Vanderford 7.8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Austin Vanderford was a part of one of the early seasons of Contender Series back in 2018 but despite picking up a finish win, he didn’t earn a contract. He signed with Bellator the following year where he went 5-2 in the promotion before being released with the PFL merger. He’ll be making his UFC debut Saturday – he’s 12-2 as a pro.
Nikolay Veretennikov’s a fellow Contender Series alum who lost in his opportunity back in 2021 to the now surging prospect Michael Morales. He went back to the regional scene and rattled off three straight wins before getting a short notice call last year where he dropped his UFC debut to Danny Barlow – he’s 12-5 as a pro. Side note: Veretennikov was slated to fight on last week’s card but that fell through so Vanderford is stepping in on less than a week’s notice.
The striking component:
Vanderford comes from a wrestling background and has left a bit more to be desired with his standup.
He’s made some evolutions from the earlier points in his career but still has that traditional wrestle-boxer style. He’s shown a decent jab and low kicks in certain matchups but isn’t a volume machine, primarily using his strikes to get in on his TDs.
So, he’ll throw lots of lunging jabs and overhands which have hurt a few guys, but he’s also been susceptible when entering the pocket or when backed up, as he doesn’t move his head much.
We saw him get significantly hurt early on the Contender Series despite rallying there and more recently, was put down early by both Mousasi and Jeffery – in fairness, Mousasi and Jeffery were upper tier talents in Bellator.
Overall, Vanderford’s style can drop opponents volume at range due to the wrestling threat, but he’s not a great striker and I’d project him to struggle standing at the UFC level depending on opponent booking.
Veretennikov’s a bigger/denser 170er, standing 6’1” with a 74” reach.
He actually comes from a grappling background but operates as more of a striker within MMA.
He likes to operate in the mid-range to pressure where he’s not a pace machine, and fancies as more of a methodical, diverse, blitz striker. His best weapons are his lead left hook and supplementary clinch game of which he’s proven dangerous with both, repping 9/12 pro wins via KO/TKO.
So, he’s definitely a guy that makes his shots count but my issues with him are still multifaceted.
Veretennikov tends to be a semi-plodding, linear fighter who isn’t the fastest guy in the world. So his blitzing attacks can be effective but he can also find himself over-extending on shots and being susceptible to offline counters when coming in.
He’s not nearly as effective when put on the back foot which we saw in the latter half of the Morales fight and points against Jones.
The guy’s shown to be pretty tough to date, having only been KO’d once but I do think he’s a candidate to get bonked at the UFC level. He struck competitively with Danny Barlow last time out in a low volume affair which is a feather in his cap but he was also just a step behind.
Overall, Veretennikov is a respectable talent on the feet that opponents have to give the proper respect to, but he also isn’t an exceptional “minute winner”.
How it plays out: Off the top, I think it’s important to note that the two KO’s Vanderford suffered were up at 185 and now he’s back down at 170 which is a better weight class for him in my opinion. Nonetheless, I don’t see much upside to him standing in this fight outside of being potentially competitive on volume. Veretennikov is the far superior striker technically but is also dangerous as well, which is highly concerning for Vanderford anytime the fight is upright.
The wrestling/grappling component:
As noted, Vanderford comes from a wrestling background where he was a 2-time Alaskan state champion in high school, and went on to Southern Oregon where he was an NAIA All-American in college.
In MMA, he’s been able to have his way on the ground with the majority of his opponents as a physically strong guy (especially at 170) with some quicker entries to double leg TDs – although he can shoot a bit unprocessed and far out at times.
Nonetheless, he’s still securing takedowns at a sizable percentage and has by and large shown good control components.
His jiu-jitsu isn’t great but he does have three subs on the rap sheet and will look to set up arm-triangles from half guard which is his best control position – he has a few arm-triangle wins over two 10th Planet black belts in Richie Martinez and Micah Brakefield in grappling matches as well.
What I do like about Vanderford though is that he’s not necessarily a lay and pray wrestler as he’ll look to land GNP, which has battered multiple opponents and avoided ref stand ups.
Given his on paper wrestling advantages in his matchups, we haven’t really seen him shot on or on the bottom, so that part of his game is questionable. Mousasi technically pounded him out but it was after hurting Vanderford standing and Vanderford blowing out his shoulder.
Overall, we’re not dealing with a Khabib or Makhachev from a pedigree standpoint but Vanderford is a good wrestler whose floor skills should translate to a UFC level.
Veretennikov’s first martial art was combat sambo where he holds a Master of Sport in the discipline.
Ironically, he hasn’t been a super proactive wrestler throughout his MMA career. I’ve seen him hit some nice throws here and there and land the occasional double leg, but he’s a guy that prefers to stand and strike.
When he’s having top success, it’s more so in counter grappling to find positions – it’s also how his lone guillotine submission win came as well.
His hips have looked better in recent years, but the ground is where he’s lost minutes in a handful of fights now – more specifically on DWCS against Morales where he was taken down four times, which played a primary factor in the result of fight – additionally against Jones back in LFA and in some of his earlier bouts back in Russia.
So, the ground is kind of enigmatic for Veretennikov at this point because there’s been good and bad. but probably more than good than bad despite his background. Instead of shooting TDs when distance is closed, he prefers to get off on his clinch game as referenced above.
How it plays out: This is where the upside with Vanderford lies. Despite Veretennikov coming from a sambo background and showing capable TDD in certain spots, we’ve still seen him concede minutes, rounds and fights with wrestling and I’d probably consider Vanderford the best wrestler he’s fought to date. The short notice is concerning for Vanderford in terms of his cardio (although it’s never been an issue historically), but it’s also been wrestling against that has gotten Veretennikov tired which is an important note to this fight.
This is a pretty binary fight where I give a sizable advantage to Veretennikov standing and to Vanderford on the ground. I’ll take Vanderford for the slight upset because I think he has the ability to dictate where this fight takes place. After watching Michael Morales toss around Veretennikov who hasn’t outwrestled anyone in the UFC since, it gives me some good optimism for Vanderford in his style. But I’m not confident because there are macro concerns with him getting KO’d, his lack of cage time over the 3-4 years and the short notice spot.
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On DraftKings, I think this is a tough one with the Vanderford debut.
For those who are unaware, and shockingly Luke chose not to mention this in his lead, Vanderford is the husband of Paige VanZant, former UFC star girl and current Slap Fighting contender.
Anyways, I’ve never taken Vanderford fully seriously and I’m hesitant to believe he’s going to be some instant success in the UFC at age 34, with one pro win since 2021. He kind of just folded in his recent KO losses as well, which makes me think he can’t really fight through adversity, or at least not trust him to. He can wrestle though.
Regardless, I think it gives some credence to Veretennikov at 8.4k, hoping that Vanderford just quits after eating some shots early.
I wouldn’t really want to play Veretennikov for any other reason though, which is why I’m analyzing it from a more narrative standpoint. Veretennikov isn’t likely to wrestle much or at all, and he may be held down at times. He’s not a high-volume striker. You’re just hoping he can hurt Vanderford early.
I’ll likely have enough Veretennikov so that he doesn’t kill me if that outcome occurs, but it’s also hard to play much of him given the low floor and questionable path to a ceiling. He won’t rate out well from a finishing perspective, and the fight is projected to extend with a -125 Over 2.5 rounds prop. The ITD lines aren’t out yet.
I don’t think Veretennikov will be popular though. If anything, people will gravitate toward the name value in Vanderford who also has wrestling upside. Veretennikov is sneaky for that reason and may provide some leverage, but ultimately he’s an ultra boom or bust target who is difficult to roster as anything other than a secondary option.
Vanderford at 7.8k interests me a little bit for his wrestling equity.
He’s just not a great finisher and I’m skeptical he can finish Veretennikov. Vanderford shouldn’t have a great finishing prop. Still, if he can land 3-5 takedowns and hold Veretennikov down for many minutes, he can rack up strikes and control and probably far exceed his DK price point. For that reason alone, I think Vanderford is the easier fighter to target and who I would lean toward myself.
The other worry for Vanderford is just that he’s too wrestling dependent and probably won’t produce much offense in general. So if he gets stuffed on some early takedowns and the fight extends, he may just miss out on a ceiling performance even in a competitive win. He also probably just loses the fight in that case.
Idk. I think this is a tough one. I’m worried about over committing to the wrestler, and also a bit worried about under committing to the striker even though the striker is highly boom or bust.
I think Vanderford is an easy secondary target given his wrestling upside but I probably would lean toward him being a safer option and I’d be more skeptical he easily ends up optimal in a win. Veretennikov is a tough fighter to click often and I won’t be doing so, but the binary element of the matchup does give him some sneaky knockout upside that could help separate you from the field if it hits.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vanderford by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Eric McConico
Fight Odds: Ruziboev -285, McConico +233
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Ruziboev 9.2k, McConico 7k
Weight Class: 185
We should have an entertaining fight here between Nursulton Ruziboev and Eric McConico, who will be making his UFC debut on Saturday.
McConico is 9-2-1 professionally at age 34, and he’s fighting out of the MMA Lab. He’s earned four wins by knockout and three by submission.
From what I can tell, McConico doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but he looks like a veteran presence who can probably give some fighters trouble at the UFC level. He hasn’t fought insane competition in the Tuff-N-Uff promotion, but he does have a recent TKO win over Maki Pitolo who was a lower-level UFC vet.
McConico will mix it up with his tools, and he’s capable of throwing punches, kicks, elbows and knees, but he is pretty decent with kicks from the outside and I’d say those are some of his better weapons. He has moderate power, but he also looks like the type who will wear guys down, rather than KO them with one big shot.
Conversely, McConico has been knocked out in both of his pro losses, which came in 2019, and I’ve seen him mildly hurt again in recent fights. His durability clearly isn’t “bad”, but I expect he will continue to get hurt and knocked out in losses.
Again, he’s 34 years old so he’s not some new prospect. Oftentimes, fighters who are of this age entering the UFC have a lot of wear on their bodies and I expect he’s been in the gym for many years taking shots. His pro debut came in 2018 and his amateur debut came in 2015 (to Austin Vanderford).
I generally like the volume I’ve seen from McConico, but I think he’ll have more success as a damaging striker than a round winner. He’s not necessarily going to play at range and jab you to death, and he does have some brawling tendencies which gives credence to both offensive promise, and defensive vulnerabilities.
His cardio seems to hold up fine though for the amount of output he produces. I think he can fight three rounds which is a benefit.
On the mat, McConico doesn’t look great. He’s a purple belt in jiu-jitsu but I haven’t seen him use a ton of it. He is coming off a quick submission which is actually the first real time I’ve seen him land a takedown.
Defensively, McConico can be controlled against the cage in the clinch, and taken down. He likes to work back up to his feet though. One of my gripes with McConico is that clinch work. He gets stuck there sometimes, and sometimes it’s due to his own choosing.
I highly doubt McConico will have sustained wrestling success at this level and my guess is he’s probably vulnerable to wrestlers coming back at him.
Overall, I actually like McConico for what he is. He’s not a championship contender, but he’s a bit of a veteran and has some veteran skills. He will probably get hurt at times and outwrestled at times, but otherwise, he can stay competitive in rounds and threaten opponents with a mix of skills.
It’s going to be a tough debut for him against Nursulton Ruziboev, who is 34-9-2 professionally and 2-1 in the UFC.
Ruziboev won his first two fights in the UFC by quick knockout, but was largely outwrestled to a decision loss against Joaquin Buckley last May. In that sense, this is a big step down in competition for him.
However, I think there’s still a lot of question marks with Ruziboev as to how he’ll fare at this level. Despite some quick KOs against Brunno Ferreira and Sedriques Dumas, Ruziboev wasn’t necessarily known as a knockout artist on the regional scene.
He’s definitely explosive, and throws some hard single shots that have impact, but Ruziboev is pretty low volume and he can be hurt at times too.
Against Buckley, as an example, Ruziboev was only able to land 31 significant strikes over 15 minutes. He was taken down a few times but still, he doesn’t throw at a high pace on the feet.
He does like to work at kicking distance where he’s hard to hit though, and has had success darting in with a powerful right hand, where he was able to floor Ferreira early. He then swarmed on Dumas after a bit of an eye poke and dropped him.
I think the explosive nature of Ruziboev could easily get to McConico early. He is the more powerful striker of the two, and the faster striker. I think he can land on McConico and hurt him and get the stoppage.
But if this fight extends at all, I’m really not that confident in Ruziboev. I think McConico may have trouble landing on him at distance, but I think McConico throws more volume overall. He may just need to engage and clinch, which could put him in danger, but also give him more offensive upside.
Ruziboev hasn’t been KOd recently so I’d guess he survives McConico, but I’m not completely sold on that.
And from a grappling sense, I’m not fully sure. Ruziboev does not seem like the best wrestler, and he would get taken down countless times on the regional scene. He likes to work for a kimura which can be dangerous, but it’s a strength based move and not one I love in MMA.
I wouldn’t count on Ruziboev shooting takedowns but he’s dangerous on top and McConico isn’t a great defensive wrestler. It also seems like offensive wrestling is a clear path to beat Ruziboev, so it may be something McConico tries as well. I do think it’s possible he has success, but my guess is that he can’t hold Ruziboev down for long periods of time.
The reality is Ruziboev has 34 pro wins, and 32 of them have come inside the distance. 20 by sub and 12 by TKO. If he wins, my guess is that it comes early and probably by knockout.
He’s also lost seven decisions, and has a 2-7 record when fights go the distance. Extending the fight and throwing some volume feels like a great recipe for McConico, and I honestly don’t count him out as a regional veteran out of a good camp. It’s still a tough debut so I’ll lean toward Ruz getting the job done early.
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On DraftKings, Ruziboev is priced up to 9.2k and I think he’s a solid tournament target, though he feels extremely boom or bust to me.
The top range is strong this week, but it carries a lot of risk. Ruziboev is priced well and rates out well, with a -230 ITD line which is extremely strong. He can be prioritized for that reason.
However, it’s also worth noting his two first-round finishes in the UFC only scored 97 and 105. He isn’t wrestling and isn’t throwing a ton of strikes, which limits his upside. In an extended fight, he’s very likely to bust.
McConico has been KOd a couple of times so I still like the early KO upside, but I’m never going to be super confident in fighters who have questionable defense and throw little volume. I’ll have shares here but I wouldn’t mind pivoting away if Ruziboev projects to be popular.
McConico at 7k is one of several cheap dogs who I think have some win equity.
It’s obviously a tough matchup, but McConico can throw volume, with some power, and maybe attempt some takedowns. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won a decision. A finish is a bit more difficult to see at +475 ITD, but this fight is -400 to end ITD overall.
I just highly doubt people are going to play McConico. He’ll carry no floor and it’s a tough matchup on paper. I don’t mind him as a low-end target, and he should carry significant leverage against Ruziboev, with perhaps some underrated upside.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ruziboev by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Rafael Cerqueira
Fight Odds: Bukauskas -285, Cerqueira +233
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Bukauskas 9.3k, Cerqueira 6.9k
Weight Class: 205
I unfortunately drew the short straw and received the honor of writing up this preliminary opener between Modestas Bukauskas and Rafael Cerqueira.
Cerqueira is 11-1 professionally at age 34, and he’s earned eight wins by knockout and two by submission. He’s coming off a 51-second KO loss to Ibo Aslan in his UFC debut.
Unfortunately, we were already desperate for fight footage from Cerqueira, of which there is almost none available from his regional scene, and a sub-one minute KO loss certainly isn’t going to help the matter.
With the almost non-existent info we have available, I’m still not ready to write off Cerqueira completely.
He had been fighting weak competition on the Brazilian regional scene, but from what I can tell, Cerqueira is a capable striker, who has a background in BJJ.
In his brief highlights, his kicks look pretty sharp, and he can attack the body and head. He will spin, throw some flying stuff, and he’s had success doing both.
There are a couple seconds of footage of him on the mat, including one where he’s locking up an arm-triangle and one where he’s holding onto a back ride. I haven’t really seen him shoot takedowns though and in the only full fight we have, he did not wrestle.
In his UFC debut, Aslan, who’s an aggressive early finisher, just bombed on Cerqueira immediately, while Cerqueira was stuck against the cage. He was definitely rocked for a second, but he was covering up well enough and he wasn’t knocked down. Aslan just threw a 35-punch combination of which 28 strikes landed while Cerqueira was covering up, and the ref was forced to step in.
Was it a great look? Clearly not. Is it meaningful in the sense that all of his fights will end in that fashion? I highly doubt it.
And outside of the above information, we have almost nothing to work with, so we’re still forced to make many educated guesses.
For now, Cerqueira will just fall into a typical bucket of a fighter who I’d expect to have early success as his primary method of winning.
At age 34, I highly doubt he’s going to climb the rankings of the division. I’ve seen him face literally no adversity outside of the one minute period against Aslan. Only one of his fights has gone the distance so I’m skeptical of his cardio as well.
He doesn’t seem like the most aggressive type though, so I’d actually guess maybe his cardio is OK. I really don’t know how impactful his striking will be at this level but kicking at range is a decent base. His ground game could be legit and he has a BJJ black belt, but I’m really unsure about his offensive or defensive wrestling.
Now he’ll be fighting Modestas Bukauskas, who’s coming off a late submission win over Marcin Prachnio, and has surprisingly won three of his last four fights.
To me it’s a surprise, because in the fight prior, Bukauskas blew out his knee in a TKO loss to Khalil Rountree which forced him into an extended layoff, and also had him cut from the promotion. At that time, he held a 1-3 record in the UFC so I assumed we’d never see him return.
And to his credit, Bukauskas healed up, competed on the regional scene and earned his way back into the UFC where he’s since beaten Tyson Pedro and Zac Pauga, along with Prachnio. He was knocked out by Vitor Petrino in that span as well.
I’m just not a big fan of Bukauskas’ fighting style and I rarely back him from a fantasy perspective.
Bukauskas is extremely low volume, and only lands 3.21 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.11 per minute with a 49 percent defensive rate. Even in his most recent win, Bukauskas was outlanded 58-29 at distance in 13 minutes, and was split on the scorecards heading into that final round.
In his two prior decisions, Bukauskas landed 56 and 44 sig. strikes in 15 minutes, which is an absurdly awful rate. He won both fights though.
Bukauskas has some power for sure, but it’s an extra concern of mine that he’s really shown no ability to threaten with that power. In fact, Bukauskas has zero knockdowns in eight UFC bouts, while he’s been knocked down four times in that span.
Additionally, Bukauskas has pretty weak grappling. He only lands 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his two takedowns landed against Prachnio last time out were the first two landed of his UFC career. Let that sink in.
He did translate it into an arm-triangle choke, but I’m highly skeptical of his offensive wrestling and willingness to continue to go to that path. It was nice to see though.
Overall, Bukauskas is a very limited fighter in my opinion, largely because he doesn’t produce much offense. He’s somewhat reliant on edging out close rounds, which is a terrible recipe in this division.
I do think his knockout/submission upside may be better than he’s shown it, but he’s also been vulnerable to both power shots and wrestling himself, so it’s difficult to see much future upside.
As far as this matchup, your guess is as good as mine.
I think it’s reasonable to conclude that Bukauskas has early knockout upside, but my lean is actually that his early knockout upside is being overvalued here. Yes, Aslan KOd Cerqueira quickly, but that came without a knockdown, and those 28 sig. strikes landed in 51 seconds are more than Bukauskas has landed in four of his eight UFC fights.
It’s simply hard to cap though, so yes, it’s possible that Cerqueira just sucks and will get hurt immediately again. I worry greatly that Bukauskas won’t throw enough offense to get him out of there without one huge shot landing though, and I actually think it’s quite possible that Cerqueira will be the more active striker at distance.
Plus, we’ve seen Bukauskas knocked down a bunch of times, so it’s possible that Cerqueira has just as much KO upside as Bukauskas does.
In grappling exchanges, I’d lean toward Bukauskas surviving any attempts from Cerqueira but who knows. Cerqueira has the better pedigree on paper and may be the more willing grappler on paper too. My guess is they neutralize each other though.
Where Bukauskas has a real edge is probably in cardio. He’s gone the distance many times and is happy to work late into fights. It’s reasonable to think that Cerqueira will death gas at some point or simply not hold up to adversity, so perhaps a Bukauskas finish is imminent.
I just worry greatly that Bukauskas won’t throw enough strikes, and won’t wrestle, which will keep Cerqueira fresh and give him multiple paths to victory. I wouldn’t be shocked at an upset win, to be honest, though it’s a super tough one to pick.
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On DraftKings, I can understand the reasoning behind targeting Bukauskas but at 9.3k, I will be extremely cautious.
As he doesn’t produce a lot of offense, Bukauskas hasn’t shown a high fantasy ceiling. He has wins of 97 and 84 in finishes, and his two decision wins scored 56 and 52. It’s to the point that even a first-round KO may not be enough to be optimal.
Bukauskas has a strong ITD line of -120 and I do think a first-round KO is on the table. He’s a reasonable tournament target for that upside. But I think that upside is solely based on Cerqueira’s last fight which feels fluky to me, and it’s not fair to compare Aslan’s fighting style to Bukauskas’.
If this fight extends at all, even if it hits round two, Bukauskas’ upside could be completely killed off. So I just worry that he desperately needs a quick KO with more volume than we’ve ever seen from him, to really stand out at this price tag. Maybe this is the opponent for him to come through, but I’m hesitant.
There’s enough variance here for me to include Bukauskas in my player pool but I wouldn’t mind being light on him myself and I’ll definitely be underweight if he projects to be popular.
Cerqueira on the other hand feels like a fine dart throw at 6.9k. He’s almost certainly being undervalued here to a degree, and he has finishing upside in his profile with a +350 ITD line, against an opponent who’s been finished in three of four UFC losses.
Plus we may get some additional leverage on Cerqueira against Bukauskas. At 6.9k, it sounds like a pretty good tournament target to me.
I won’t go crazy on this play as there are so many unknowns, many of which could not work out in my favor. I don’t know how the public will feel about Cerqueira this week. Currently, I’d actually consider him a decent, sneaky underdog and wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to the field at 6.9k, hoping that some of the assumptions the public is making are incorrect.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bukauskas by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)