Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan
Fight Odds: Duncan -175, Moicano +150
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Duncan 8.8k, Moicano 7.4k
Weight Class: 155
We have a super fun action fight headlining this card in the lightweight division between Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan.
Moicano is a true veteran and has been one of the better fighters in this division for years. He’s a very well-rounded fighter, with a strong submission grappling base and a solid, minute-winning kickboxing style as well.
Even in the early stages of his career, down at featherweight, Moicano had some impressive distance striking performances against boxers like Calvin Kattar and Brian Ortega, whom he outlanded 116-41 and 109-65 respectively.
Since his move up to lightweight in 2020, Moicano hasn’t fought a ton at distance. A lot of his fights end early, but we’ve still seen him fight competitively when at distance. He lands 4.17 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 3.57 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate.
Purely at distance, Moicano lands 5.26 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.53 per minute. He lands more than 17 percent of strikes to the legs, according to MMA Labs, which is pretty solid and is a good marker for him being able to fight consistently on a per-minute basis.
However, Moicano has always had one major issue which is durability. He has been hurt many times, and he’s been knocked out three times. He’s suffered only four knockdowns officially.
Moicano actually landed a knockdown in his last matchup against Dariush, another veteran with major durability issues, and unfortunately (or fortunately for our sake), ended up losing that bout anyway.
Moicano isn’t Julian Erosa levels of poor durability, but he’s not someone I trust to take damage. While I consider him a solid kicker and a decent minute winner with moderate volume, Moicano gets hurt far more often than he hurts his opponents, and now at age 36, I don’t necessarily see that trend improving.
Where Moicano is best is on the mat, specifically with his BJJ where he’s a black belt, a strong back taker and someone who is very capable of winning by RNC.
Moicano has six wins by RNC in the UFC, and it’s his most clear path to victory. He lands 1.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and against weaker opponents, he can control them and finish the fight.
Even against decent opposition like Saint Denis, Moicano was able to easily work a ground game which eventually led to a doctor stoppage victory. He’s underrated on the mat.
His defensive wrestling has been mediocre though and is a mild problem. He defends takedowns at 62 percent, and has been controlled on the mat against a few opponents. To be fair, his recent losses have come to Dariush and Islam Makhachev, who are both elite ground fighters, and his last loss before that came to Rafael Dos Anjos.
Moicano isn’t getting controlled by nobodies, but he can be controlled.
This is a very intriguing matchup against former training partner Chris Duncan, who falls more on the “fun” spectrum of the division and is coming off two crazy fights against Terrance McKinney and Mateusz Rebecki, which saw Duncan outlast both to get his hand raised.
I honestly didn’t see this coming from the sense of Duncan’s early career, where he was KOd by Borshchev on DWCS and then essentially KOd the second time by Charlie Campbell.
But since he’s entered the UFC, Duncan has managed six wins in seven tries, only losing to Manuel Torres in 2024.
Duncan at a base level is more of a plodding boxer, who carries power in his hands. He’s not super fast, and not extremely diverse. He’s also not a great wrestler and grappler.
On paper, Duncan is someone who can compete in boxing exchanges with physicality but isn’t likely to get far ahead on the numbers. It’s a thin path to victory at the highest level.
With that said, Duncan has dramatically improved since he’s entered the UFC. His pacing looks far better than it used to. His wrestling looks far better than it used to. His durability has held up, which may be in part due to general variance.
It’s turned Duncan into a sort of monster, because he’s been difficult to finish. And while he’s conscious, he’s going to push forward and throw heavy hands. It’s led to some crazy exchanges, and a lot of finishes.
I still have real hesitancy here for a couple of reasons. One reason is that Duncan isn’t necessarily winning high-process fights.
Dating back to 2024, he was taken down, had his back taken and was subbed by Torres. Then he was taken down a couple of times by Bolaji Oki but grabbed a guillotine to win by submission. Then he looked decent against Vucenic, as a near +300 underdog by the way, and locked up another guillotine choke.
After that, he had the war with Rebecki who still outwrestled him and outlanded him numerically, but Duncan was able to land more damage. Then he had the war with McKinney which ended quickly, and we all know how McKinney fights look.
The second reason in relation to the first reason, is just that his level of competition has been mediocre. His best win by far is over Rebecki where he was outlanded 114-92 and 0-2 on the takedowns. It’s just hard for me to be confident in how his game will translate when he takes steps up in competition.
This particular matchup against Moicano is super intriguing because on paper, Moicano is the better fighter.
Moicano is the better submission grappler for sure. I watched an interview with Duncan and Lucrative MMA this week where Duncan said Moicano is one of the only guys in the gym he can’t submit, and that Moicano has beaten him up on the mat many times, especially when they first started training together years ago. Duncan was recently subbed by Manuel Torres via Moicano’s specialty, which is the RNC.
Duncan is defending takedowns currently at 50 percent. So in reality, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Moicano take him down and sub him.
Even on the feet, Moicano is a better minute winner. He’s a better kicker at distance, and at distance, Duncan is landing 5.81 strikes per minute while absorbing 5.95 for a slightly negative ratio.
A very fair expectation would be for Moicano to land a couple of takedowns early, possibly threaten for a back take and choke. And on the feet, outkick Duncan for some minutes in likely competitive exchanges, which would ultimately lead to some competitive rounds that Moicano could win.
Again I’ll note that we’ve also seen Duncan KOd and hurt badly on the feet, so damage isn’t impossible there.
However, the primary aspect that scares me off picking Moicano to win is that Duncan’s bottom scrambling has looked good in recent fights. He will give up the front headlock where a back take is possible, but he’s not just going to lay on his back and allow many minutes of control.
What it leads me to believe is that Duncan will try to get up with some urgency, which will either force a back take from Moicano or he will lose control. While I can project Moicano for a couple of takedowns landed, he’s only reached 3 takedowns landed in a fight one time. He’s not the type to land 4, 5, 6, or more takedowns.
So if Moicano can’t submit Duncan early, his actual grappling path may be shot.
On the feet, while I think Moicano can compete, I am very worried about Duncan hurting him. I think the longer this fight goes, the more the pacing from Duncan will give issues to Moicano, and I see him getting hurt. Specifically, I see optics favoring Duncan past the first round, as Moicano starts to take some damage, it could snowball easily into an ugly loss.
In that same interview, Duncan says his prediction is a round 4 or 5 TKO. And that he’s specifically pacing himself to break Moicano, which I think makes sense. I don’t particularly care about interviews but it’s at least worth noting, and seems like a smart idea.
I do think Moicano is very live, and ultimately is the better fighter on paper. He has an early grappling path and could win by RNC, or make some kickboxing rounds competitive.
My best guess though is that Duncan’s physicality allows him to scramble free of some early wrestling exchanges, at which point, he’ll start to edge out Moicano in damage, and probably hurt him along the way. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Duncan started to wrestle in the mid-rounds, get on top when Moicano is tired, and start to land ground-and-pound. I’ll take Duncan to win via mid-round TKO.
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On DraftKings, both sides of the fight are squarely in play as a high-action main event.
Duncan is priced at 8.8k and I think will be the more popular target, potentially coming in as the heaviest owned fighter on the entire slate.
While he’s not a massive name, he’s gained some fans with his recent performances and is -125 ITD line which shows a lot of finishing potential. We know he can produce action and damage, and it’s led to some strong DK scores in wins.
On average, Duncan has scored 96.8 DK points per win, and he’s scoring 20.4 DK points per 5 minutes which is one of the highest on the slate. My only fear is that we might not see him score a ton of points early.
In rounds 1-2, for example, Moicano might do well at distance and limit tons of volume. Moicano probably has the wrestling advantage and could control Duncan at times. There is some danger here of Duncan winning in the mid-rounds after not doing a whole lot early, and underperforming because of it.
If we see Duncan at ultra chalk, which is possible, you could potentially move off of him in hopes he scores 90-100 points in a mid-round finish, and just misses the optimal due to pricing or other big scores.
I still think the most likely outcome, even in a mid-round stoppage, is that Duncan scores well and tops 100 points. He is going to land a ton of strikes if he ever has Moicano hurt, or if he gets on top or something. If he wins by TKO via ground-and-pound, he could land like 40-50 strikes in those final exchanges alone. I’d be much more worried if I thought he would win by guillotine.
Duncan isn’t a lock to win or score 120 points, but I actually like him a lot this week, which I guess will be the public consensus too. I think he’s worth moderate-heavy exposure to do the main event status, odds to win and win ITD, and score expectation.
Moicano is priced at 7.4k and is a viable secondary target.
I think it’s worth just being heavy on this fight as a whole. I’ve made a fair case for Moicano and I wouldn’t be shocked if he won. I especially wouldn’t be shocked if he won by early RNC, which in hindsight would look like the obvious result.
While it’s still not the outcome I’m picking, it just wasn’t that long ago when Duncan was subbed, so I’d feel super dumb to fade Moicano and see that outcome play out. Moicano is only +250 to win ITD and is probably only a secondary option, but a solid secondary option who gets you onto a different construction.
Even in a loss, Moicano could score well. He could get KOd early but a mid-round stoppage could allow him to score 30-50 points before he gets finished, so I won’t mind stacking up the fight in cash game situations either.
I don’t expect to be heavy over the field on Moicano but coming in near the field seems fair all things considered.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Duncan by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci
Fight Odds: Jandiroba -125, Ricci +105
Odds to end ITD: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Ricci 8.3k, Jandiroba 7.9k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a goofy WMMA battle between two UFC veterans here in Virna Jandiroba and Tabatha Ricci.
Ricci is a BJJ black belt and is mostly a grappler who looks to land takedowns and hold top position on her opponents. She is coming off the most random clinch elbow KO of all-time against Amanda Ribas. However, I more so rack that up to Ribas having no durability and randomly finding ways to lose more than anything.
Ricci is not a very good striker. In her UFC debut, she got absolutely annihilated by Manon Fiorot. I don’t fault her much there as Fiorot is honestly one of the best strikers at flyweight. She has generally been outlanded since that fight too though, and lands 4.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.19 in return.
Ricci can sort of strike and go through the motions, but overall I don’t have much faith in her striking and she doesn’t have much depth on the feet. She got outlanded 70-48 at distance against Tecia Pennington and was gifted a split decision that she didn’t deserve. She also was outlanded by Xiaonan Yan 78-15 in significant strikes in her last loss and just looked awful in that fight. She also only attempted 3 takedowns which showed poor fight IQ as grappling Yan was her only chance to win. I do think Ricci has shown some overall improvement in her striking but again she isn’t great there.
Ricci’s bread and butter is her grappling. I consider her a decent wrestler. She lands 2.69 takedowns per 15 minutes, but I do think she has generally outgrappled girls with weak TDD. Robertson, Penne, Viana, and Oliveira have a combined 45 percent takedown defense rate. That is just awful. Ricci only landed one takedown in six rounds against Godinez and Pennington. So she isn’t easily landing takedowns as she gets steps up in competition. She did outwrestle Angela Hill though which was her best performance to date.
I still consider Ricci a pretty decent wrestler but I surely think she has padded her metrics against weak defensive wrestlers. I do think Ricci showed solid defensive wrestling against Robertson though and she defends takedowns at 78 percent.
Overall, Ricci isn’t that good. Her striking is pretty bad and her takedowns are okay. She can win clean fights when she can easily outwrestle opponents, but that is really it. Anyone with solid TDD is going to beat her. She can generally neutralize grapplers though.
Ricci will be taking on Virna Jandiroba who just lost a very competitive title fight to Mackenzie Dern. Before that, Jandiroba was on a four fight winning streak and basically dominated all of those fights against Angela Hill, Marina Rodriguez, Loopy Godinez, and Amanda Lemos. It has been a good run for Jandiroba.
Jandiroba is a fantastic grappler, and I have generally been higher on her than others in the past. She is a world class BJJ player and it shows in her fights. She lands 2.85 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a very capable wrestler. I actually quite like her takedowns for someone who comes from a BJJ background. She can hit doubles and has a really good single leg series.
Jandiroba is also very dangerous in top position. She can pass guard extremely well and is dangerous moving from position to position. She also has a solid submission grappling game. She has three submissions in the UFC and is capable of submitting most fighters in this weight class.
One other thing I like about Jandiroba’s ground game is her sweep game. She can use her sweeps to reverse and obtain top position. Furthermore, even when her takedowns do not land, she can force sweeps with leg entanglements to get top position. She used sweeps to get top position on Angela Hill, Loopy Godinez, and Amanda Lemos. This is a huge weapon to have for her and may be the most important aspect of her game. She can fail on a takedown and just maneuver her way into top position which is a huge X factor when top position generally seals a round for her.
When Jandiroba is fighting strikers, she generally fights very smart and is all the way in or all the way out fighting on her terms. She does a great job of just clinching and entangling with strikers and not letting them have room to operate. The only losses in Jandiroba’s career have all come against grapplers in competitive fights.
Jandiroba is not much of a striker. She lands 2.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.90. She is not really going to win rounds on the feet and is basically a liability there. I do think she at least does an underrated job of limiting striking engagements and damage as she is never really getting hit with anything clean.
I really like Janidoba’s grappling game though. She is one of the better grapplers in all of WMMA. If her grappling game fails though, she is generally going to lose.
As far as this matchup goes, I have actually gone back and forth.
On the feet, this is a mess but I do favor Ricci there to a degree and if the grappling neutralizes, this fight may be Ricci’s to win in a striking fight so I fully understand why many are picking Ricci. Ricci isn’t a good striker but she is honestly likely better than Jandiroba, so that path to victory is there.
I also think Ricci has some good defensive grappling. So Virna may chase takedowns, fail, get stuck on the feet and lose a striking based decision to Ricci. I think that is fully on the table here.
I still think although Ricci has good TDD that Jandiroba is very tricky, I have seen Ricci taken down before and judo thrown by Ribas. Virna is a better grappler and back taker than anyone Ricci has faced by a mile. I do think Virna is so quick with her back takes and I am actually not dismissing Virna having grappling success here. I think the grappling may neutralize because both girls are strong grapplers. However, of the two, I think Jandiroba is clearly more dangerous and a better submission grappler capable of obtaining dominant positions like body triangles.
Ricci may be able to land a takedown or two but I doubt she holds Jandiroba down and Ricci surely won’t be able to put Jandi in any danger. Jandi has literally grappled Dern for about 40 minutes now and not even Dern came close to doing anything to Jandi. I think Jandi is a better overall submission grappler and wrestler so that path is there for Jandi and perhaps it is more pronounced than people realize.
This is close man. I think the dynamic of Ricci being able to minimize grappling more than usual Jandiroba opponents is there and Ricci sprawling and brawling in spots seems super likely.
However, Jandiroba is more likely to have grappling success and one takedown for Jandiroba could give her a clean round which could be huge for the cards.
I went in writing this picking Ricci. However, I am going to go with Jandiroba. I think these girls strike ugly on the feet and it is competitive but Jandiroba has one or two moments on the mat to swing the fight.
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On DraftKings, I see this fight as arguably a fade.
Ricci is priced at 8.3k and is now the slight underdog, so it will be interesting to see if she gets any public ownership. I think a competitive betting line makes sense, and I definitely think the most likely outcome is a neutralizing decision, no matter who wins.
Ricci is the better striker on paper but I don’t really know how much offense she can produce. Jandiroba is absorbing 2.9 sig strikes per minute and she’s only allowing 11.8 DK points per 5 minutes which is one of the lower metrics on the slate.
I see Ricci landing something like 60 significant strikes in three rounds, and maybe one takedown, which could easily score in the 60s on DraftKings. She’s +900 to win ITD.
I just hate this matchup for Ricci to produce a ceiling. Jandiroba is super skillful and limits offense, so I don’t really see a reason to play Ricci.
This is MMA so anything can happen but the fight is -350 to GTD and I don’t think Ricci will be a standout at 8.3k in a decision. I expect she’ll be a contrarian target, but not one I particularly like.
Jandiroba is priced at 7.9k and assuming she closes as the favorite, she’ll be the more popular play.
She also has higher upside on paper with her fighting style. She is more grappling dependent, and she has a better ITD line at +350. I’d still be surprised if Jandiroba won ITD, as Ricci is a legit grappler and that’s her best skill.
In decision wins, Jandiroba has scored 89, 80, 95, and 79, but I really just don’t think she’s likely to dominate, which is what we’d need. I don’t mind prioritizing her ahead of Ricci and there’s at least a path here with multiple takedowns and a back take, but I’m very skeptical of this spot.
I honestly think getting off the fight is the right call, especially if Jandiroba is gaining any type of ownership. She’ll rate out as an OK value play or secondary option, and I might sprinkle her in given her grappling style, but this isn’t great chalk if it ends up being chalk.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ricci by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Odds: Yakhyaev -1250, Ribeiro +820
Odds to end ITD: -1200
DraftKings Salaries: Yakhyaev 9.9k, Ribeiro 6.3k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues as the red hot Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev takes on UFC veteran Brendson Ribeiro. Let’s dive in.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev looks to continue his hot streak in the UFC after a stellar performance in his debut last November. Yakhyaev has now had two fights under the UFC banner, both of them lasting a COMBINED SIXTY THREE SECONDS OF CAGE TIME. He had his debut on the Contender Series against Ali Lorenz in August, where he blitzed forward and won via KO in 30 seconds. Then, he debuted in the UFC against Rafael Cerqueira (proud owner of the #3 spot on Gordo’s “worst UFC fighters rankings”) and handled him accordingly, crashing forward, landing heavy strikes and submitting him in 33 seconds.
Yakhyaev is now 8-0, with seven wins coming inside the distance. He was a champion over in Ares FC and fought some decent competition regionally, with six wins coming in the first round. His wins are split between three KOs and four submissions, but even a couple of his KOs are coming on the mat via ground-and-pound.
He is a primary grappler and very aggressive with his takedowns. He is able to chain together takedowns well and is looking to finish the fight quickly from there. He does have good physicality and a solid squeeze to get people out of there. We even saw him win a decision, showing decent cardio against a solid opponent who is now 11-2.
Recently, we have just seen him throw all caution to the wind, sprint forward with reckless abandon and murder his opponents. Against Cerquiera and Lorenz, that could work, but it is certainly a riskier gameplay as he climbs the ranks. Either way, he has looked like a beast.
Yes, opponents haven’t put up much resistance but he is disposing of them accordingly. He carries a lot of power, trains with the right people and is able to grapple pretty efficiently.
I could go ahead and drop stats about him but they aren’t going to be relevant because of the small sample size. Actually, they’re kinda funny so here they are. He is averaging 20.95 strikes landed per minute at a 78% accuracy, landing 14.29 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 100% accuracy and has an average fight time of 31.5 seconds… all while only absorbing 1 strike against him in his two Octagon performances.
So yes, Yakhyaev is going to rate out well off a small sample size with his crazy aggression, power and submission ability. But we still have questions about his durability, cardio and ability to fight through adversity, although “The Hunter” is a fitting nickname for the uber-aggressive Yakhyaev who will look to implement his will early and has looked good so far doing so.
Brendson Ribeiro looks to rebound this weekend after back-to-back KO losses inside the Octagon. He is now 3-4 under the UFC banner, but has fought some decent competition.
He made his debut on the Contender Series back in 2023, where he was able to pull off an upset over Bruno Lopes, knocking him out in the first round. He was then met by top prospect Zhang Mingyang who handed him his first KO loss in the Octagon. He then went 2-1 over some lower competition with a couple upset wins over Diyar Nurgozhay and Caio Machado, before running into Azamat Murzakanov and Oumar Sy who both knocked him out in round one.
That puts his record to 17-9, but one that is full of exciting fights. Ribeiro’s best attribute is most likely his power. He has a 94% finish rate with nine wins by KO, as well as a decent ground game and seven submission wins. He saw him pull off a Kimora against Nurgozhay which shows his competence on the mat, but he isn’t much of a wrestler landing only 0.9 TDs per 15 minutes at a 42% accuracy.
His biggest weaknesses come defensively. He has been finished in seven of nine losses and five times by KO in the first round. His durability isn’t great and although he has power, he is often slower to the punch and able to be hit. He defends strikes at 53% and is absorbing 4 strikes per minute to his 3.06 landed.
We have also seen him struggle on the mat, as he is currently defending takedowns at a whopping 18%, and was taken down and controlled by Gadzhiyasulov, Sy and Nurgozhay, and was content to play off his back. He was able to land the more damaging shots against Machado but was ultimately out volumed 76-49 and out landed from range in every round, showing a poor ability to win minutes. His cardio also isn’t fantastic as he doesn’t have the best work rate, but he often doesn’t make it late in fights anyways.
Overall, Ribeiro is a heavy-handed brawler with decent offensive attributes, being able to knock out or submit lower level opponents, but will struggle with hand speed, defensive wrestling, durability and distance striking with steps up in competition. He rates out as being a fighter with a punching chance, but not someone with the durability to withstand fire fights or the minute winning/cardio to excel in fights that extend.
Well, at the time of writing this, Yakhyaev is a -1800 favourite. I don’t know how much needs to be said about this one, as it looks to be a squash match, at least on paper. If you cannot tell, I am not high on Ribeiro. Yes, Yakhyaev is unproven, untested and we still have to have some questions about him. But man, does he look good from the small sample size and regional tape we’ve seen.
Is Ribeiro the guy to derail the hype train? I mean, I guess he hits hard and could clip Yakhyaev. But he’s a chinny fighter who’s been KO’d in round one in his last two fights and in three of four losses in the UFC, as well as being someone who defends takedowns at 18%.
Additionally, I would argue that he probably has WORSE cardio than Yakhyaev here. So sure, anything is possible. But I would be utterly shocked if Yakhyaev loses this fight, based on his early aggression, damage dealt and the quality of opponent that Ribeiro is, as well as the grappling path we have seen regionally. Give me Yakhyaev to stay hot, stay undefeated and get another early finish, probably giving Ribeiro his walking papers and a third consecutive round one finish loss.
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On DraftKings, Yakhyaev is the class of this slate though he carries a stunning 9.9k price and won’t be easily affordable.
I’ll say up front that because of his price tag alone, you do not have to play him. In fact, odds are against Yakhyaev that even in a dominant early finish, he will be optimal at this price.
There aren’t a lot of cheap underdogs worth targeting on paper, and I suspect many won’t even be able to afford 9.9k this week. Plus, he must beat out McMillen straight up at 9.8k which isn’t a guarantee.
Additionally, I had some questions about Yakhyaev coming into the UFC. I wrote him up for his UFC debut and talked about some concerning sequences against Kovalenko in 2023 where he was outscrambled, controlled and gave up his back. I’m also not sold he’s a consistent round winner on the feet and could be vulnerable there.
So is Yakhyaev the lock of all locks? Is he destined to be a champion? I’m not really sure.
What I do like is that he’s ultra aggressive, offensively skilled, and facing an opponent who is vulnerable. Ribeiro could potentially hurt him, or possibly things could get weird in an extended fight. Yakhyaev should be far more skilled, should win the fight at a high rate and win ITD early.
Additionally, I don’t like to project it but you can argue Yakhyaev is worth bumping up in projection on the Quick Win Bonus equity, specifically because he’s won in the first minute in each of his last two fights.
If he simply chooses to fight more patiently, then we’re probably dead playing him, but I definitely think Yakhyaev has first-minute upside here, and that may be his path to the optimal. He scored 134 in his UFC debut and could duplicate that with another first-minute finish.
This fight is -425 to end in less than 1.5 rounds, and Yakhyaev is -275 to win in round one. In comparison, McMillen is -105 to win in round one. I think Yakhyaev will be considerably more popular than McMillen because of this and his past score.
He’s still far from a must play and even with 120 DK points, he may not be optimal. But Yahkhyaev will rate out as the best option this week, and he’ll carry one of the highest ceilings of any fighter on the slate.
If I can’t afford him, so be it. If I can afford him, I’m super happy to roster him, and I’ll probably find ways to force some exposure onto him just because of the potential for a first-minute finish.
Ribeiro is priced at 6.3k and is hard to justify any exposure on because he’s +900 to win and +1100 to win ITD. There’s some variance in this kind of matchup I guess, if Yakhyaev is going to go balls to the wall, so maybe he gets clipped.
If you have 150 lineups to play with and want to throw a couple on Ribeiro, be my guest. It’s hard to recommend anything more than that, and I’ll likely just cross him out as will most others.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yakhyaev by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)
Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam
Fight Odds: Ewing -145, Estevam +125
Odds to end ITD: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Ewing 8.6k, Estevam 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a super interesting fight here between Ethyn Ewing and Rafael Estevam. I do want to point out that this fight is at bantamweight. It looks like Estevam, who has always fought at flyweight but has missed weight a couple of times, is being forced to move up. Ewing actually beat Wellmaker at featherweight but is now going to his regular weight class.
Ewing made his UFC debut on short notice against touted prospect Malcolm Wellmaker. He was a big underdog and got the upset win in an impressive performance. Ewing weathered the storm and just showed he was better than Wellmaker.
Ewing outstruck Wellmaker 85-77 and used some pressure boxing and smart inside fighting. I liked the shot selection of his strikes in that fight. He displayed good inside boxing, solid leg kicks, and great elbows off the break. I liked his composure and defense in some of the pocket exchanges too. He also showed toughness as Ewing landed some good body shots and Ewing stayed tough.
Ewing also showed some good spot clinching and wrestling at times too. He obviously showed good cardio too. He pushed a pretty hard pace for 15 minutes against an extremely dangerous fighter and he took the fight off the couch.
I honestly liked Ewing as a fighter. Like I mentioned above, he is a very solid pressure striker with good inside boxing. He mixes in straight punches and is savvy in the pocket with his defense. He can also mix in calf kicks. I really like how he mixes in elbows off the break as well. He also has some sneaky power too. He doesn’t look like the most powerful guy when you size him up, but he consistently hurts his opponents.
Ewing also comes from a wrestling background. He was an average D2 wrestler and took 8th in California at the high school state tournament which is honestly a solid accomplishment given California has a huge population and notably has one class. I think Ewing is a decent offensive wrestler. I don’t think he will dominate many guys with wrestling at bantamweight, but he can mix in takedowns vs lower tier competition for sure.
Defensively as a grappler and wrestler, I have seen Ewing taken down a bit here and there. However, I generally have liked what I have seen. He scrambles up pretty well. I do think good grapplers can take him down though and establish some control.
Ewing will be taking on Rafael Estevam. Estevam is a Brazilian fighter who is 14-0 professionally. Estevam booked his UFC ticket by winning on the Contender Series. He was fighting a submission specialist and essentially stifled the opponent’s subs and battered him with top position and ground and pound for a TKO win.
Since then, Estevam has three UFC wins by wrestling based decision against Charles Johnson, Jesus Aguilar, and Felipe Bunes. He has landed 6.01 takedowns per 15 minutes and has essentially taken down all of his opponents and won with control. He has tired in almost all of those fights though and has generally been losing round three’s.
Estevam is obviously mostly a pressure grappler. He comes forward and likes to land takedowns, and get top position and land ground-and-pound. I don’t consider his grappling all that special but I do think he keeps up a good pace and I like his aggression. His cardio is an issue though.
On the feet, Estevam generally is always looking to move forward and if his takedowns are failing, he will just spam some strikes but I consider him a liability on the feet. He was outlanded in significant strikes 72-18 against Charles Johnson and 35-11 against Jesus Aguilar.
I don’t consider Estevam all that good technically but he does at least aggressively look to land takedowns. His control is decent. I don’t consider him the greatest submission grappler though. I also just don’t like his striking and he gets tired in fights.
As far as this matchup goes, this is pretty binary. Estevam is either going to win with offensive wrestling or he is going to lose because Ewing is a better striker with better cardio. If this stays standing, I honestly think Ewing will beat the crap out of Estevam. Ewing is clearly the better striker with superior cardio too and I could see Ewing finishing him on the feet especially if Estevam is tired later on in the fight.
The key here is the wrestling. I do think Estevam will land takedowns early. His takedowns are decent as is his control and his tenacity is pretty solid early on. I have seen Ewing taken down here and there and I expect the takedowns to land especially early.
I do think Ewing is a pretty decent defensive wrestler though and he comes from a decent wrestling background. I think Ewing will be able to stop the occasional takedown and get up here and there as well and resist a bit early. I think the resistance will likely tire Estevam out. When Estevam slows down, I think Estevam will really struggle to land takedowns on Ewing as Ewing doesn’t slow down at all. So although I expect Estevam to have some level of wrestling success, I don’t think he will be able to do it for the full 15 minutes because of his cardio limitations and because I think Ewing is a good enough defensive wrestler to resist to a degree.
In those in-between stages when Estevam isn’t on top, I just think Ewing is going to land more damage and either get a finish or just win on the judges’ scorecards. So I am going with Ewing here. I think this will be a damage vs control thing.
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On DraftKings, it’s another binary matchup that makes for an interesting fight to target.
What’s most intriguing is that Estevam is priced at 7.6k, and he’s the grappling side which scores far better on DraftKings. In his wins, Estevam has put up 106, 116 and 72 DK points, and he’s only been to decision.
Now against a better boxer, it’s clear what Estevam must do. He must wrestle as hard as he can for three rounds, and in a win, he’s very likely to rack up takedowns and control, and exceed value for his price tag. Despite Estevam only being +425 to win ITD, I think he’s one of the more likely underdogs to be optimal in a win.
With Estevam going 3-0 in his UFC career thus far, putting up strong scores, and priced at 7.6k, my expectation is that he’s going to be one of the most owned underdogs on the slate. And it may be for good reason. I feel he’s a strong secondary target regardless.
I really am not sold he wins though, which is an issue. The fight dynamic is pretty obvious. He can win, but man he slows down late in fights and if he doesn’t dominate early with takedowns, he probably gets pieced up. Plus, the change in weight classes doesn’t make me feel great.
It’s not a terrible spot to come in underweight and potentially chase cheap dogs with lower ownership this week, which in turn would allow you to spend up. The downside is that maybe he wins, so I’m torn.
I feel I have to pick Ewing to win but I do think Estevam will have early wrestling success. I have to label him a solid secondary target at this price and given the binary dynamic and upside, and playing him moderately alongside the field is still very reasonable.
Ewing is priced at 8.6k and probably needs a knockout.
Estevam is only allowing an insane 8.2 DK points per 5 minutes, according to MMA Labs, over 52 tracked minutes. Charles Johnson was able to land 72 sig strikes but 54 of those came in round three, and he still would have only scored 74 DK points.
Ewing is +215 to win ITD which is decent, but definitely not a guarantee he finishes this fight. And specifically, not a guarantee he finishes early.
So the problem here is that if Estevam has any success, Ewing is going to be scoring 10 points or less in the first round and then things could just fail entirely.
I suppose if Ewing does win by knockout, at any point, things will turn around dramatically. He’ll land a swarm of strikes and get a knockdown most likely. So I could see a second or even third round TKO scoring OK for the price.
This is a very risky spot with real bust risk, but I do think it’s a worthwhile secondary target. We’ve seen Estevam slow down badly enough and look vulnerable enough that a TKO simply wouldn’t be surprising, and I wouldn’t want to miss out on that result.
At 8.6k, I don’t consider Ewing a must but this bottom 8k range is disgusting and has no certainty. He’s a reasonable secondary target for upside when you’re building in the mid-range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ewing by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
Tommy McMillen vs. Manolo Zecchini
Fight Odds: McMillen -1400, Zecchini +800
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: McMillen 9.8k, Zecchini 6.4k
Weight Class: 145
The UFC will welcome newly minted DWCS contract winner Tommy McMillen, who will make his promotional debut against Manolo Zecchini on Saturday.
The UFC is honestly hilarious. This McMillen kid is like the bad boy version of Chase Hooper, and a training partner of Sean O’Malley. So who do they book him with? The random Italian prospect Manolo Zecchini, who was TKOd in his UFC debut back in 2023.
McMillen is 9-0 professionally at age 28 and he’s a pretty fun fighter. He’s earned three wins by knockout and five by submission. Essentially, he finished each of his first eight fights in a minute or two on some lower-level Fusion Fight League promotion, which earned him a shot on DWCS.
In that DWCS fight, McMillen won by majority decision in what was a real war. The fight was grueling from the start, and McMillen was hurt badly in the first round, and put in dangerous positions on the mat in which he was forced to scramble free.
His opponent failed to take him down after the first round, and slowly tired while McMillen still held onto a bit of energy, and started to piece him up down the stretch. In total, McMillen outstruck Mgoyan 113-85 and defended 10 of 12 takedowns.
I comped McMillen to Chase Hooper because visually he has a similar but slightly more athletic build, and has some defensive issues. He was getting tagged pretty cleanly early in that fight, and I honestly think the average person would have lost by TKO.
So right away, I have some concerns. But McMillen is tough, I have to give him credit for that. He wasn’t on skates or anything and fought out of some submission attempts. He threatened with the front head lock chokes of his own, and despite tiring badly himself, still had more energy to land hard shots down the stretch.
At this point I am viewing McMillen as an action fighter. I don’t think he’s exceptional anywhere, and I think he may get TKOd or just beaten up by a more technical striker. But he has a solid frame for the division and some power, and is willing to throw down.
He also has a dangerous submission game. He has several guillotine choke wins and apparently his front head lock series is legit as well, which brings darce chokes and anacondas into play. He can take the back and lock up RNCs.
I don’t know how good of a wrestler McMillen is. I don’t think he’s great, but he looks OK. I think he can probably take down weaker competition and finish them cleanly on the mat. He can also be taken down. Some of his scrambles were solid on DWCS though.
I’m hesitant to say anything definitive about McMillen as we don’t have much data on him. I definitely have some defensive questions and I think he fares better as someone who can smash his opponents early, though that’s difficult at the UFC level. He also has enough toughness to fight through some adversity which I like. We’ll see how his skills shake out.
Zecchini is 11-4 professionally, earning nine wins by knockout and one by submission. He’s been knocked out twice and submitted once.
Zecchini made his UFC debut in September 2023, and was TKOd with a body kick by Morgan Charriere in the first round. I thought he was actually doing OK for the first couple of minutes and he landed some shots on Charriere, but the fight didn’t last long and it ultimately begs the question of whether Zecchini belongs at this level.
Prior to that debut, I did not think Zecchini rated out very well. He did not seem like a particularly good athlete, and he had been fighting some pretty low-level competition on the Italian regional scene.
Zecchini is mostly a striker, and he’s reasonably quick. The fact that he’s actually earned a bunch of knockouts tells me he has power too, but it’s tough to see it translating into the UFC.
He mostly rates out as a “moments” guy – one who could randomly land a strike and hurt his opponent. He does not seem like the type to land strikes at a consistently high rate.
I’ve seen him dropped, I’ve seen him outwrestled, and I don’t have a ton of faith for Zecchini on the mat.
To his credit, his cardio looks pretty decent. He might be a tough guy to get out of there in terms of landing shots to the head, but again, I just think he’s been fighting pretty poor competition and I really struggle to see him producing much offense against better athletes.
Currently, I’d project him to need striking exchanges to win, and it will probably come down to random damage.
The only thing to give me pause here is that McMillen isn’t the best defensive fighter. He was hurt a couple of times early in his DWCS fight, and in theory, he can be hurt again. Zecchini is a capable striker and will throw, so possibly he can land some early shots.
The size difference really stands out here though. McMillen is 6’0” with a 74 inch reach while Zecchini is 5’8” with a 68 inch reach.
Even if Zecchini can land shots, I don’t think he’ll easily close the distance without getting hit himself. McMillen just looks like the better athlete and the more powerful fighter. He should be able to land more volume in total than Zecchini and I’m skeptical how much damage Zecchini can take.
Additionally, McMillen should be the superior grappler. I’m unsure how much better he is but he looks like the much more dangerous submission artist, and given his frame, I think he can grab hold of Zecchini and tangle him up.
Zecchini lost a decision on the regionals before coming to the UFC where he was outgrappled, and I think McMillen can probably take him down and sub him. I also think McMillen can just crash the pocket, find the front headlock and finish a sub from there too.
In theory, Zecchini is capable of fighting for multiple rounds. He can strike and he can do a little damage. I doubt he’s winning two rounds at a super high rate though, so he probably needs a knockout. Maybe it’s possible but it’s a tough one to bet on.
McMillen isn’t necessarily someone I’m dying to trust over three rounds either but he just showed he could push past some fatigue if necessary which is good. He’s very dangerous early. There’s a good chance he can just swarm Zecchini and find an early finish.
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On DraftKings, McMillen is priced up to 9.8k which is crazy expensive.
On the past 29 13-fight slates, there have been 24 fighters priced above 9.5k, and four have been optimal for a 17 percent hit rate, according to MMA Labs.
On this particular slate, it’s going to be hard to fit McMillen and Yakhyaev. The cheap underdogs aren’t super exciting. By default, McMillen at 9.8k is far from a must target and even if you can pay up, targeting Yakhyaev ahead of him is pretty reasonable.
I guess you can argue that McMillen has among the highest upside on the slate, but only in terms of him having some quick win bonus equity. He seems more likely than others to win in the first minute, considering a few of his fights have ended near that span.
But I don’t think I’d bet on a quick win bonus, and otherwise, I don’t think McMillen is drastically better than others. He has real RD 1 finishing equity but it could be an early submission without dominating ground-and-pound, meaning he could easily score 105-110 which would not be enough.
Obviously McMillen rates out well for finishing equity at -550 ITD, and I guess that’s the outcome I’ll choose. Zecchini isn’t a total fish though, and could extend the fight a bit, fighting on the outside and kicking.
If you can afford McMillen, he’s viable, but I probably prefer Yakhyaev straight up, and a lot of my other lineups won’t be able to afford either. So I don’t expect to have a ton of exposure to McMillen.
I also don’t think he’ll be super chalky at this price tag, so it is what it is. He’s a viable upside target in a vacuum but his price tag makes it difficult to roster him often.
Zecchini at 6.4k is only a dart throw.
At best he is a dart throw. Even if I thought he had a shot to win by KO, which I’m not sure I do, Zecchini is +800 to win. He lacks win equity on paper and any real finishing equity at +1100 ITD.
Maybe these odds are wrong, and maybe it’s just a high-variance fight where McMillen can be hurt. I don’t think I can really get on this spot at all with anything other than a couple percent dart with a large portfolio of lineups, and I think he’s a reasonable option to just cross off the board otherwise.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: McMillen by Guillotine, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala
Fight Odds: Delano -285, Ruchala +245
Odds to end ITD: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Delano 9.2k, Ruchala 7k
Weight Class: 145
Another newcomer fresh off a Contender Series victory, Jose Delano will step into the Octagon to take on Robert Ruchala.
Delano is 16-3 professionally at age 29, and fights out of the Brazilian Top Team. He’s earned four wins by knockout, five by submission and seven by decision.
Delano most recently won on DWCS in a high paced fight over Manuel Exposito, and essentially just beat Exposito up for the majority of three rounds, outlanding him 146 to 38.
He actually fought decent competition on the regional scene too, and his only recent loss came to Gabriel Santos in 2023, where he was stopped with body shots in the third round.
I guess I consider Delano pretty well-rounded, but primarily a mid-paced striker. He’s a decent boxer and works to get reads where he can accumulate success over rounds. He definitely is not an early finisher, though he’s capable of landing with damage, the majority of his fights project to last a while.
Since 2020, Delano has won five times by decision, twice by round one KO, once by round one submission, and he also lost in the third round to Santos.
My thought is that Delano just isn’t super physically imposing. He’s not a massive power threat, but he’s decent. He can throw volume, and he’s technically fine. He’s very experienced. He can win striking rounds. He’s just not necessarily going to overwhelm opponents.
Delano can also grapple, and I’m unsure what belt he holds but I think he’s either a purple belt or brown belt. He was a purple belt as of a few years ago. His offensive wrestling is fine, but he doesn’t chase takedowns all that often.
He didn’t really need to wrestle on DWCS but Delano only attempted one takedown, while he defended three of five attempts from Exposito. I thought his defense looked fine and he was able to scramble up and limit control easily.
I’d label Delano as a decent round winner at the UFC level. I don’t think he’s super easy to beat anywhere. But he’ll likely be in some competitive fights against decent opposition.
He’ll be taking on Robert Ruchala who had a better than expected performance against William Gomis in his UFC debut, although he lost a unanimous decision.
Ruchala is 11-2 professionally at age 27, and fights out of Poland. He’s earned three wins by knockout, three by submission and five by decision.
Ruchala isn’t particularly good. He stands fairly upright and prefers to strike at kicking range, where he is decent. It was a sneaky decent matchup for him against Gomis who is willing to fight patiently at distance as well, but Ruchala still got outstruck 37 to 27 at distance.
I just don’t see any upside for Ruchala on the feet. He can stick and move a little bit, and kick fine. He doesn’t throw much volume and he’s not a real knockout artist. He’s tough and has only been knocked out once, but he can be tagged.
Ruchala can also grapple a little bit. He can use his frame to clinch and land takedowns, but he’s not great on top. He can also be taken down himself.
Against Gomis, Ruchala won a round with a takedown and top control. He didn’t do much with it but his control looked OK. He was also taken down twice late in the fight on Gomis’ only attempts, but Gomis didn’t do much with it either.
One positive aspect is that Ruchala has decent cardio, and we’ve seen him fight late in fights. He lost via TKO to Parnasse in round four, who is an elite prospect. He went the full five round distance and won in the fight prior.
Again, I just don’t see much upside for Ruchala anywhere. He’s not horrid and his toughness and cardio can keep him in fights, but he doesn’t produce a ton of offense and just isn’t athletic enough to make his game work.
In this matchup, I favor Delano for offensive output. I do think Ruchala can compete just fine in a slow paced, distance kicking affair. But I’m hoping Delano will bring the fight to him a bit more, and Ruchala looks much weaker in the pocket.
I wouldn’t bet on a knockout but I do think Delano has a reasonable shot to hurt Ruchala in the pocket, where Ruchala’s head defense is weak.
Ruchala might be able to clinch and wrestle, but I don’t think he’ll have much success. Even if he lands a takedown, I wouldn’t bet on him to do much with it. Delano looks like a better submission grappler, and honestly can probably land takedowns of his own if he wants.
Ruchala’s best bet is to slow this fight down as best he can, clinch, wrestle to top position, and disengage. He could make a competitive decision out of it possibly, but I really just think Delano’s workrate is better and he’s more effective everywhere.
—
On DraftKings, Delano is priced at 9.2k and is a viable target.
He won’t rate out phenomenally well for finishing equity is my primary issue, and he’s only +150 to win ITD. That still gives him hope, but he’s far from a lock to score a quick KO, and Ruchala has shown solid durability thus far.
I do still think it’s possible that Delano could force inside exchanges and just kind of batter Ruchala, and knock him out. So I’m definitely not ruling out an early finish here, but there’s simply the clear possibility of the fight extending as well. Delano can start a bit slow too, so my guess is we see a second round at least.
Delano ultimately rates out better as a safe play than he does a tournament target. He is likely to win, he can throw at a high pace and he can wrestle. But Ruchala will slow the fight down and potentially neutralize his offensive output.
At 9.2k, Delano may just be best utilized as a price play, meaning that it’s super difficult to pay up to 9.8k and above, so you’ll find yourself in this lower 9k range often. If you’re leaning into mid-range builds, he’ll be a more viable option because he fits, and I think he’s a fine secondary option in those types of constructions.
This 9.5k-8.9k range is pretty shaky and I don’t think we’ll see massive ownerships on any of them. Within this range, I like Delano some and I wouldn’t think it’s crazy if you preferred him straight up over someone like Vannata or Costa.
I doubt I’ll end up with a ton of exposure to Delano but he’s decent and at least has a path to a decent score with a mid-round, volume based knockout.
Ruchala is priced at 7k and is a mediocre play.
We have the super cheap tier of fighters who are massive dogs with little win equity. And then we have this next tier below Moicano of price based options, none of whom rate out super well.
The primary benefit of playing them is saving money, hoping we get no dog wins, and potentially being able to pay up to a 9k stud. Ruchala just scored 35 points in a loss, and if all these dogs are losing, perhaps that kind of score is enough in a loss.
I only view Ruchala as a low-end play though. He’s +450 to win ITD and doesn’t produce much offense. Without control and takedowns, he just probably won’t land enough strikes to score points.
I’m not against the idea of punting on occasion to Ruchala and saving salary, but I’m not high on him from a matchup standpoint and probably won’t have much of an investment here this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Delano by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Guilherme Pat vs. Thomas Petersen
Fight Odds: Petersen -115, Pat -105
Odds to end ITD: -145
DraftKings Salaries: Pat 8.2k, Petersen 8k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an intriguing and binary fight here between Guilherme Pat and Thomas Peterson.
Pat is a decent prospect but I do have some concerns which I will discuss in a bit.
I like some of Pat’s game. He is a leaner heavyweight, and he is a solid athlete and has some speed. Pat is definitely best as a striker and he has some good hand speed. I overall think he is a decent striker capable of throwing in combination at times and stinging his opponents.
I still just feel like Pat may not have the best finishing instincts. In his UFC debut against Allen Frye Jr., I feel like he should have finished Frye easily. However, Pat kind of let Frye off the hook and would allow himself to be clinched against the cage. It almost looked like he was conserving energy. He outlanded Frye 64-33 in significant strikes so he had a huge lead. However, I feel like a strike count like that showed he was pacing himself and he was a bit worried about tiring. He would have spurts of aggression but then he would kind of coast.
I still think Pat has some good striking qualities, particularly with his hand speed and athleticism. I am just a little worried that he could slow down against better fighters if he can’t control the pace because Pat hasn’t fought a good striker yet.
I also have some worries about Pat’s defensive grappling. He doesn’t wrestle offensively really at all, and this guy clearly has issues being controlled against the cage in his last two fights against Frye and Mauricio Queiroz, where he was controlled against the cage A LOT. Those guys aren’t even good fighters or grapplers either. Furthermore, Queiroz landed a few takedowns and although Pat worked up well at times, Queiroz is horrible. Queiroz also consolidated top position until the end of round two and Pat was clearly tired.
Pat will be taking on Thomas Petersen who is now 2-3 in the UFC against subpar competition. Petersen is kind of a mediocre wrestler boxer.
I actually consider Petersen not bad as a wrestler. He lands 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and can push a decent pace. He will attempt 8 takedowns or so per fight. He landed 9 takedowns in his last win against Don’Tale Mayes. He also landed a couple of takedowns against Mohammad Usman. I do think Peterson will continue to outwrestle and control below-average competition at this level.
Petersen is a very average striker. He is competent but not good either. He was outstruck 65-58 against Jamal Pogues which was a bad look. He outlanded Mohammed Usman 76-63. So yeah, he is basically striking competitively with the low end fighters of this division. I still don’t think he is bad and he has some decent boxing. He just isn’t going to exactly climb this division with his striking either.
Petersen has been knocked out twice, each coming in his last two losses against Shamil Gaziev and Vitor Petrino. I also just don’t think he has much power either and is also a bit chinny.
However, if Petersen stays conscious, he can clearly give people issues with his decent wrestling, solid gas tank and takedown pace.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Pat is the more talented striker with more speed and hand speed as well. I think Pat also has more power and I think at any point, Pat could land and knock Petersen dead. It is a clear path to victory. I also think if they strike over the duration that Pat will land the cleaner shots and likely win a decision.
I am just suspicious here though. Pat is getting clinched against legitimately awful regional level grapplers. Petersen is a pretty decent wrestler for UFC HW standards. I also think Pat clearly slows down and has pacing issues. Petersen may honestly easily just outwrestle this guy even when fresh and dominate him. I think the grappling path is clearly there for Petersen.
Furthermore, even if Pat resists early, I just have a feeling Pat will slow down and the grappling for Petersen will eventually come. I am picking Petersen to win because this is a big step up for Pat as far as a pace wrestler goes.
This is clearly binary and a cardio based fight. Obviously Pat could win by knockout at any point and will obviously have a window of opportunity early when he is more fresh. I don’t like Petersen’s chin at all to be honest.
However, I also don’t think Pat looks like the best finisher and more often than not Petersen probably extends this fight. I also think the clinch could be huge for Peterson. It has allowed other inferior fighters to extend the fight against Pat and Petersen probably can clinch to burn some energy and survive too. In an extended fight, I almost always see some level of grappling success for Petersen so Petersen is the pick.
—
On DraftKings, this is a super binary fight which can be a positive.
We’re not getting super explosive athletes like we saw in Abdul-Malik vs. Belgaroui last week, but the binary aspects are similar. Pat should be a level ahead on the feet with knockout potential, and Petersen should have some shot at grappling domination.
For that reason, it’s a fight I am interested in.
However, Tim laid out the same concerns that I wrote up when Pat fought in his UFC debut. That fight against Frye was -600 to end inside the distance, and I was completely scared off because Pat had shown zero urgency from the regional scene.
I wrote the following:
“To put it in context, he has one fight against a short, fat dude half his size with zero ability. Pat is just standing there at distance, throwing an occasional jab or leg kick, and waiting for the opponent to do something. He eventually wins via “retirement” but he showed no willingness to hunt for the kill and it’s an opponent dangerous HWs would beat in 25 seconds.”
And it’s basically exactly what we saw in his UFC debut. Pat is a skilled striker but his lack of urgency is pathetic.
The good news is that it will limit his public ownership. He’s coming off a 59 point win, and box scores drive so much ownership. He’s still completely boom or bust and in an extended fight, he’ll probably score 60 points again.
Plus, the betting line is moving against him which is another signal of potentially lower public ownership.
He is getting an opponent who has been knocked out in each of his past two losses, and Pat is +145 to win ITD. He’s only a secondary target and a risky one at that, but there’s a real boom case here just given the binary dynamic.
If I had to guess, Pat will either lose this fight, or win an extended striking affair and bust anyway. So I’m far from confident. But he has tail outcomes where he wins by round one KO and he’s someone who could help separate you in this mid-range.
I don’t think it’s a bad idea to come in near the field in tournaments or perhaps even overweight if he starts rating out as a semi-contrarian play based on line movement.
Petersen is priced at 8k and may be the higher owned fighter, especially if he closes as the favorite.
In his last win, he scored 126 DK points that came with nine takedowns. Pat has pretty poor takedown defense, so if Petersen wins, I wouldn’t be surprised if he landed a bunch of takedowns and earned lots of control.
Pat has a better get-up game than Mayes though, so I wouldn’t expect 126 DK points. And Pat could easily just outstrike Petersen and win. This is not a safe option at all. Petersen is only +330 to win ITD.
But Petersen is averaging 4.6 takedowns per win with a high of 9, and at 8k, he seems like a reasonable secondary option because of it. Pat was taken down a bunch in his last fight on the regional scene and so I’m definitely not ruling out a win for Petersen.
I’m not dying to target Petersen heavily but I’d aim to come in near the field here. There’s just so much variance, but I don’t want to dismiss the binary dynamic that can lead to big scores, and I’d rather not let this fight kill me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pat by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll
Fight Odds: Costa -400, Nicoll +330
Odds to end ITD: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Costa 9.3k, Nicoll 6.9k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random fight here in the flyweight division as Alessandro Costa will take on Stewart Nicoll.
Costa is a Brazilian fighter who is 14-5 professionally. We last saw him in the cage losing to Alden Coria via strikes. Coria is turning out to be pretty good so no major shame in that loss. His last win was against Kevin Borjas where he finished Borjas after hurting him with leg kicks on the feet.
I mostly consider Costa a power-based striker. He has some decent hook combinations in the pocket and has some powerful leg kicks. However, I don’t totally like his volume and volume strikers have given him issues. He lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.57 in return. He is overall a fine striker who can just overpower weaker competition. However, volume strikers can beat him and I do question his durability to some degree as I have seen him hurt a few times.
Costa is decent defensively as a wrestler as he is physical. He defends takedowns at 83 percent. However, he plays guard when taken down, and I do think he will have issues on bottom being controlled especially if he gets tired. He has a decent guard, but that is about it. He has some submission wins on the regionals, but I don’t think he is really an offensive grappling threat in general. I think he can take down and submit weak competition but that is about it.
I mostly expect Costa’s main path to victory at this level to be knockouts on the feet or damage based decision wins. He is a moments based fighter.
Costa will be taking on Stewart Nicoll. Niccol is an Australian fighter who is 8-2 professionally and is 31 years old. He started off his pro career on the Australian regionals fighting bums and racked up an 8-0 record.
Nicoll then made his UFC debut and got guillotined in round one against Jesus Aguilar because of course.
Nicoll then fought Lucas Rocha and lost by a 30-27 decision. Nicoll was outlanded 115-45 in significant strikes and lost the takedown battle 3-2. It wasn’t a great performance.
Nicoll is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt where he just took down and dominated all of his regional competition. I liked his tenacity and some of his grappling on tape. However, the competition was terrible.
Against Rocha, Nicoll clearly struggled with the physicality and the athleticism of Rocha and really struggled to get his grappling going. That is the issue too because Nicoll isn’t really a striker so if he can’t dominate with grappling, he is going to get beat up.
I still don’t think Nicoll is a bad grappler though, and I could see him being semi-underrated going into this fight. I remember liking his grappling to a degree before the Rocha fight but obviously it didn’t come to fruition in that fight.
As far as this matchup goes, it is hard for me to look at the Rocha fight and not think Nicoll will struggle with the physicality and athleticism of Costa. Costa defends takedowns at 83 percent and is extremely physical. I think it is reasonable to assume that Nicoll will try to grapple here, struggle to dominate with takedowns, be forced to strike, and either get knocked out or damaged and lose a decision. That is my prediction.
I still don’t fully trust Costa. He can get a bit tired and off his back, he can kind of get finished and give up. It wouldn’t completely shock me to see Nicoll tenaciously pursue wrestling and maybe eventually have success if Costa tires out. I am not completely ruling it out.
Overall though, I just can’t get that Rocha fight out of my head so I have to go with Costa here.
—
On DraftKings, this is a weird fight that I don’t think many will feel safe with.
Costa is priced at 9.3k and is a pretty interesting contrarian option. I’m not sure how the field will react this week with two huge salaries at the top, but ultimately, Costa has been inconsistent and is coming off an ugly loss. I don’t expect him to be too heavily owned.
He’s also an obvious risk given that he may not wrestle with urgency and may not throw strikes in volume. He definitely needs a finish. Both of his UFC wins have come ITD though, and he scored 102 and 107 in those fights.
Against Nicoll, Costa could win ITD. He could defend takedowns and batter Nicoll standing. I am not high on Costa as a prospect and I thought Nicoll could be decent entering the UFC, but he’s just looked bad. I’m not even sure it was the physicality that Tim noted against Rocha last time, but at best, he was gassed out quickly.
You just don’t want to be gassed out against an opponent who can inflict damage, chop at the legs, etc. There’s definitely some merit to a mid-round stoppage for Costa. He is -130 to win ITD which isn’t a smash but shows some finishing equity.
I don’t feel safe with Costa at all and I’m not convinced he has an elite ceiling. But in the thought process of the public wanting to pay for Duncan, Yakhyaev, McMillen and Bekoev the most, there’s a real chance Costa gets squeezed in this range and ends up low owned. He’s a pretty solid option in more mid-range builds where you can’t pay up further, and I don’t mind taking a few shots.
Nicoll at 6.9k isn’t a great option, but I’d label him a punt worth some consideration.
I was high on Nicoll’s grappling entering the UFC. Yeah he’s looked bad and he’s burned me, but he’s now 6.8k and not 9k which we saw in his UFC debut.
And Costa has an issue where he gets taken down and held down at times. I am picking Costa to win, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Nicoll took a round from him with wrestling.
Nicoll also looked awful and still scored 30 DK points in his last loss. If the chalky mid-7k range fails, and we need a loser on the optimal, perhaps Nicoll could get there.
There’s no reason to be excited by Nicoll and if you want to cross him out, that’s fine. He’s +675 to win ITD. I do think he’s worth a small sprinkle in large fields as a salary relief option, who can grapple, against a questionable opponent who’s dropped the ball before.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Costa by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers
Fight Odds: Vannata -210, Flowers +180
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Vannata 8.9k, Flowers 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
Lightweight veteran Lando Vannata makes his return to the Octagon this weekend to take on Darrius Flowers, who still awaits his first win inside the UFC. Let’s dive in.
Lando Vannata makes his return to the Octagon for the first time since April 2023, where he lost a decision to Daniel Zellhuber. Vannata is a true UFC veteran, having been in the UFC since he was a 7-0 prospect back in 2016. Since his debut, which was a submission loss to Tony Ferguson, he has gone 4-7-2 while facing a solid level of competition. His first UFC win was via a highlight reel spinning wheel kick against John Makdessi back in 2016, and his last win in the Octagon was a split decision victory against Mike Grundy back in 2021.
Almost five years since a win is definitely not a good look, but Vannata has fought a decent level of competition in the UFC and fared well. I would consider him a primary striker. He can kick well from distance and put together solid volume, currently averaging 4.52 strikes landed per minute.
He’s also pretty sound defensively, with a 55% striking defense and a solid ability to maintain range. He can hit hard, with a 75% finish rate and four KOs, but I would consider him more volume based recently in the UFC, utilizing range and looking to win minutes.
On the mat he is competent. He averages 1.09 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 37% accuracy, but has struggled with control. He only has one UFC fight where he had more than 70 seconds of control time, and that was in a dominant ground showing en route to a round one submission win against Mariano back in 2019. Against lower level of competition, he can utilize that wrestling and has decent jiu-jitsu with five submission wins to his name. However, he can also be taken down, as he has been taken down 16 times in the UFC. But does still hold a 69% takedown defense and has been pretty good at working his way back to his feet.
Level of competition will typically be an advantage of his and with his well-rounded skill set, I do think he is able to compete with the best of them. However, with a couple years off and now being 34 years old, I’m not too sure what to expect from Vannata at this point in his career. With that being said, if it’s the Vannata of old, he is a decent striker from range with solid kicks, ability to win minutes and even wrestle if needed, but that well-rounded skill set can be exploited by those who are specialists in an area, or those quicker to the punch than the UFC veteran.
Darrius Flowers has had a rocky start to his UFC career. He made his Contender Series debut back in August of 2022, where he picked up an upset win via piledriver that led to an injury in just 73 seconds. Funny story about that fight, Flowers actually came into my stream the day before his fight to say he was going to win… he has never lacked confidence that’s for sure. However, he might be lacking other things… like cardio and well, skill.
Don’t get me wrong, Flowers is a powerful guy. He has eight wins by KO and one by submission for a 75% finish rate, including eight first-round finishes. Early on he will swing heavy and look to take your head off, and has decent physicality to do so. He also has a “professional boxing career” so you would expect him to be pretty decent in the boxing, but he went 1-10 in that realm with seven KO losses, so that is why that title needed quotation marks.
The biggest issue for Flowers has been his defensive wrestling and cardio. He has been finished seven times including six times by submission, and it was only the aging Michael Johnson that was able to drag this man to a decision.
Inside the UFC, he is 0-3. He was beaten brutally by Jake Matthews before getting almost insta-tapped in round two. He was taken down four times and controlled for over six minutes by the striker, Michael Johnson. And then was out struck 61 to 26 before being submitted in round two to Evan Elder.
Historically, he also hasn’t been able to push a pace at all and has been completely dependent on early success. I guess he has decent offensive wrestling, as he can land takedowns and utilize physicality to control and look to land damage, landing 0.98 TDs per 15 minutes with a 28% accuracy. But his lack of submission grappling, poor cardio and the fact he’s been submitted six times makes it a danger for him to utilize that path all too often.
Considering the alternative is that he sticks to the striking, where he is currently getting outlanded in the UFC while absorbing 5.49 strikes per minute to his 3.07 strikes landed, it makes his paths to victory pretty limited.
Overall, Flowers rates out as an early power fighter who will swing for the fences and has a decent first layer of wrestling and ground-and-pound, but has yet to show any desire to win and showcased poor grappling skills, poor minute winning and poor durability, which makes him a tough fighter to back in the UFC.
This is an ugly, ugly fight. Both fighters are coming off of lay-offs and neither fighter has won since 2022. Flowers is just not someone I can back with any sort of confidence in the UFC. Sure, he is a fine athlete so he could go out there and blitz Vannata, and land a big power shot. But Flowers may be one of the worst fighters we’ve seen when it comes to cardio and in particular, work ethic. He doesn’t want to be in there after about the first two minutes, is being almost doubled up from range and has been finished 14 times across MMA and boxing.
His lack of grappling, minute winning and cardio make him an easy fade against any fighter with even a sliver of UFC talent and I would be shocked if he has another fight in the promotion if he loses this one.
With that being said, he does hit hard and we are not sure what form Vannata is in. He could just be there for a check, earning the last bit of show money he can get before riding off into the sunset. But if he has any desire to win at all, he should be levels above Flowers here. He has the far superior level of competition, the way better minute winning and distance striking, and the ability to fight beyond three minutes which Flowers does not.
I even think that although Flowers may be the better athlete and even wrestler, Vannata has better BJJ and could beat him in that realm too. So I think Flowers’ path to victory is based on early success and something that I do not expect to happen all too often. Instead, give me Vannata to win this bout with volume, cardio and wanting to be there, and I think he is able to finish Flowers as he slows and looks for the door in the later rounds.
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On DraftKings, this is a really gross fight that does have potential to end inside the distance.
I have some interest in both sides for that reason. Vannata is priced at 8.9k and I lump him into this 9.5k-8.9k that is mixed with questionable targets. I expect a ton of ownership to go to Duncan, as well as the 9.8k-9.9k range, so this 9.5k-8.9k range may be underowned.
Vannata specifically shouldn’t see a ton of ownership outside of pure mid-range builds where we can’t afford to pay up. He hasn’t fought in three years and hasn’t scored 100 DK points in seven years.
Obviously, it’s easier to talk yourself off Vannata than it is to load up on him. I have no idea what form he’ll come in with, and even if he’s in decent shape, he could just outstrike Flowers to a decision and bust.
But Flowers has a tendency to lose inside the distance, and Vannata carries a +140 ITD line here which is decent. I don’t necessarily trust Vannata, but there’s a reason why he’s favored moderately and if he wins at all, a finish could materialize.
I don’t mind a mild investment in Vannata this week. He fits into mid-range builds which I like, and he shouldn’t see a ton of ownership otherwise. He at least carries a case for upside. I’m not actively going out of my way to play a lot of him but I think Vannata is a solid secondary target at this price tag.
Flowers at 7.3k could definitely be considered the best option priced below Moicano in the main event.
This tier is filled with weak dogs who’ve had very little historic success. Flowers hasn’t won in the UFC yet and doesn’t really have a processed game. So there’s no reason to trust him here, even if Vannata is not in form.
But he’s +180 to win and +215 to win ITD which is a super strong finishing prop for this price tag. I think that alone will attract attention in stars and scrubs builds. Vannata may simply not be in top shape and might get hurt early, though he’s been durable generally.
I don’t mind a sprinkle of some of these other guys, but you can definitely make the case for Flowers being the best bet in the low 7s, and I’d label him a fine secondary upside option given the savings and the matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vannata by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Alice Pereira vs. Hailey Cowan
Fight Odds: Pereira -115, Cowan +110
Odds to end ITD: +225
DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 8.4k, Cowan 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a mess of a fight here in the curtain jerker between Hailey Cowan and Alice Pereira. These girls are absolutely terrible. This fight could take place at your local strip club parking lot and you would have no idea that they were professional athletes.
Hailey Cowan made her UFC debut about two years ago against Jamey-Lyn Horth. She lost a competitive decision in a pretty low level fight where they struck at range at a low tempo and occasionally clinched each other. Cowan chased some takedowns and landed a couple. Cowan then had some time off due to injuries.
Cowan then fought Nora Cornolle a few months back in her return. Cowan won the first round via wrestling and top time. She then went for a failed throw in the second round, fell, got her back taken and choked out. It was embarrassing.
I am not going to lie here. I don’t think Cowan is good. I think she had some hype after her Contender Series win because she is a decent looking girl and comes from an acrobat and gymnastic background or something. So she has some flash. However, she is very green and not very skilled.
Cowan is 7-4 professionally with most of her career taking place in LFA. The best part of her game is her physicality and clinch. She is definitely a strong girl and a decent athlete. She likes to use her big frame and size to clinch opponents up and eventually get takedowns and finish fights on the mat or ride out top position.
The issue is her wrestling is not actually good. She can take down girls who are bad. However, just go watch the Leite and Franco fight. She grabs body locks and just frantically looks for trips and just looks clueless at times when the trips aren’t working. As a wrestling coach myself, it was frustrating to watch. She still can land takedowns purely off tenacity and size. However, I doubt she can actually consistently take down good grapplers. Horth is a bad wrestler and Cowan even struggled taking her down and only managed to on caught kicks. Horth has improved lately though so perhaps that split decision loss has actually aged alright.
Cowan doesn’t look to strike much because her fights always end up in the clinch or on the mat. I have seen her land some decent combos here and there as she is a strong girl. However, she looks green to me on the feet (and in general) and doesn’t look particularly talented as a striker. She stayed competitive with Horth and lost the striking battle 76-63 which isn’t completely horrible so at least she can go through the motions.
Cowan has also been taken down in other fights and has lost position on the mat. So she can end up on her back as well. She has also been randomly submitted three times which I don’t like and further suggests that she is very green.
Cowan is just whatever to me. She can likely outgrapple some weak grapplers using her physicality and tenacity and that is about it. I don’t think she is particularly talented at all.
Cowan will be taking on Alice Pereira. Pereira is a young 20 year old Brazilian fighter who is 5-1 professionally.
Pereira was 5-0 professionally on the regional scene where she fought some of the lowest level of competition you will ever see in malls and people’s backyards. I am not joking.
Essentially, Pereira finished all these girls in round 1 by just knocking them out standing or taking them down and finishing them simply because she was bigger and more physical and just a more violent girl.
Pereira then fought Montse Rendon in her UFC debut. This fight was bad. Pereira basically bounced around on the feet and backed up the entire fight. She then would try to land the occasional punch or kick by darting in. Rendon basically pursued her the entire fight trying to get a hold of her. Rendon was able to win the decision by landing the bigger strikes, getting a takedown once, and by being the one who was more aggressive. Pereira was outlanded 45-37 in significant strikes which is just a horrifically low strike count.
Pereira is just young and not developed. I think she is probably best as a striker and that is what I profile her as. She likes to bounce around and then dart in and land some punching combos or kicks. She is tall and long and I do think she actually had some mild talent on the feet. I do think she can improve is what I am saying. However, she clearly is very green and sloppy.
As a grappler, I don’t think Pereira is great. She got some ground finishes on the regionals but like she clearly needs some development on the mat. It was also bad seeing Rendon get her down.
As far as this matchup goes, this is just so low level which sometimes are the most difficult fights to call because each girl is so bad that they can lose in a variety of ways.
I think Cowan is more developed as a grappler. Cowan is obviously not very good as a grappler considering she is randomly getting finished there. However, Cowan is pretty seasoned in the clinch and has an okay top game and she is physical. I do think Cowan has the advantage in the grappling and it may be why I just pick Cowan outright. Again, this is so low level though that I wouldn’t even be surprised if Pereira landed takedowns of her own.
On the feet, I think Pereira is more talented. Like if both of these girls were finished products on the feet, I think Pereira would be better. I think Pereira has more natural fluidity in her striking.
However, Pereira just fought Rendon and landed 37 significant strikes and seemed petrified to engage. Literally anyone can compete with that. Cowan was competitive on the feet with Horth who is better as a striker than Pereira. So I honestly think the striking will be a mess where Pereira may win on talent. However, Cowan may win the striking by just being aggressive and by Pereira backing up.
So this is a complete mess. I honestly just think Pereira is so green and probably needs to win a striking based decision most of the time to win. She very well may but Cowan probably has more paths to victory with more reliable grappling and clinching. So I will pick Cowan but this is a shitshow.
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On DraftKings, this feels like a stayaway fight but I may be sick in the head because I like Cowan a little bit.
This is just a really low level fight. Not only is a low level fight, but it’s one that’s -285 to go the distance.
Not only that, but we just saw Pereira land 37 strikes in her UFC debut. Cowan has landed 63 and 26 strikes in her two promotional decisions.
I just can’t imagine clicking either one of these girl’s names often. I can’t imagine the public clicking them either.
Pereira is priced at 8.4k and is a pure contrarian option. I think she’s OK from distance and could possibly win a distance striking affair, but it’s hard to bet on and it’s difficult to project her for much finishing equity.
Pereira is +425 to win ITD which is weak, and without a knockout, I don’t see her being optimal. Given this is a low level fight and both girls have holes in their games, maybe something can happen, but the Pereira I saw in her UFC debut isn’t someone I’d expect to get many finishes.
I’m guessing Pereira comes in around 10 percent owned, so if you want to use her as a contrarian target, she exists. I won’t be playing her personally with a more limited portfolio.
Cowan at 7.8k is the preferred target by default.
If anything, she’s a win equity target who saves some salary. I don’t think she’s great but there’s a reasonable chance this entire 8.7k-8k range busts, in which case we’re looking at a stars/scrubs build with three underdogs.
Cowan has actually landed a takedown in each of her three tracked fights as well, and Pereira is not a strong grappler. While I don’t really project Cowan to dominate there, it’s at least a possibility.
Cowan is +415 to win ITD so she doesn’t project for much finishing equity either, and isn’t anything close to a priority. My guess is she’ll come in with mid teens ownership as a low end secondary option, but the public will strongly prefer playing the Pat/Petersen fight, Jandiroba, and the 7.4k-7.7k range.
So Cowan likely gets squeezed, and she’s not a bad differentiator because of it. She is not a much worse target than fighters like Jandiroba and Gatto, but she may see way less ownership and may actually have a shot for ground success. I don’t mind her for win equity purposes in that context and I wouldn’t mind being overweight if the field just stacks up all the surrounding fighters in this price tier.
Ultimately, Cowan has a very limited floor and ceiling on paper, and could realistically score 70 DK points in a win which just isn’t enough to be excited. She could also lose and look terrible.
I’ll have mild exposure by default and she’s my preferred play in the matchup, but prioritizing upside in this range is still very justifiable.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cowan by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Azamat Bekoev vs. Tresean Gore
Fight Odds: Bekoev -650, Gore +475
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Bekoev 9.5k, Gore 6.7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues as promising middleweight prospect Azamat Bekoev looks to bounce back against Tresean Gore. Let’s dive in.
Azamat Bekoev looks to right the ship this weekend after dropping his last bout to Yousri Belgaroui as a large favorite last October. The Russian middleweight made his debut last January, after a stint in the LFA, ACB and ACA where he racked up an 18-3 record.
Since joining the UFC, he had back-to-back round one knockouts over Ryan Loder and Zach Reese before running into Belgaroui. That early success has been a big part of his game, as he has an 80% finish rate split between 8 KOs and 8 submissions, including 10 first round finishes. He has also shown the ability to win minutes and win decisions, although he can fight on close margins in extended fights, which we saw in his split decision win over Dylan Budka on the regionals.
At his core, Bekoev is a wrestler. However, in the UFC, he has been blitzing forward and throwing recklessly, something that worked in his first two bouts. He ran through Zach Reese and then knocked down Loder twice in under 3 minutes.
When he did get that step up in competition, the striking was his downfall though as he was ultimately out struck 102-24 in his third round KO loss to Belgaroui. There, he was able to have some wrestling success early, landing three takedowns in round one and another in the second round, before ultimately losing some of that explosiveness while he slowed in the fight. Those big bursts of energy that he puts into his takedowns and wild striking took their toll and the cardio is something he has to look to improve on.
However, like I mentioned, he wasn’t always an early brawler. He actually is a decent wrestler as well, landing 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 45% accuracy. He does have solid grappling too, with eight submission wins and other knockouts coming on the mat via slam or ground-and-pound, that is where he does his best work. He can take the back well, has solid top control, but has also been submission over position sometimes.
Defensively, I do think he can be hit on the feet, especially with his recklessness entering into the pocket, but he has shown decent durability. He needs that durability, as he’s currently sporting a 31% striking defense in the UFC. He was KO’d for the first time in that last loss and accumulated a lot of damage before going down.
Additionally, he has been submitted, but that was back in 2021 in another loss in round three. That makes it so he’s only ever lost by round three finish or decision, and historically he’s been pretty good early on in fights when he is able to use that explosive striking or takedown entries.
Overall, Bekoev is a solid athlete with decent power and good wrestling. He is able to blend his big power shots into solid takedown entries but can be reckless on the feet and slow down as the fight goes on, so he needs to improve that cardio and striking defense before we can trust him at too high of a clip.
Tresean Gore is at risk of dropping to a .500 record this weekend, as the prospect has struggled to find his footing in the UFC. He made his debut on the Ultimate Fighter back in 2021. He was only 3-0, but a very hyped up prospect with his power and physicality. He met Bryan Battle in the finals of that season, who was able to skirt around the outside, dodge the power shots of Gore and outpoint him for 15 minutes. He then dropped his next bout to Cody Brundage, who knocked him out in the very first round.
He was able to bounce back with back-to-back standing guillotines wins against Antonio Trocoli and Josh Fremd, but has since lost his last two to Rodolfo Vieira and Marco Tulio, putting his pro record at 5-4.
The truth about Gore is I think he was just rushed as a prospect. He had all the tools. The physicality, the power, the forward pressure. But he was thrown to the wolves early and suffered losses that hurt his confidence. Now, at 31 years old with a 6-4 pro record, it’s hard to know what to expect from Gore.
The one shot power is still there. He throws heavy and is always looking to take your head off. But he lacks volume, only landing 2.76 strikes per minute and has been severely out struck from distance, absorbing 7.48 strikes landed per minute with a 40% striking defense.
I’m OK with fighters who take one to give one, but it’s a bit tougher to take 7 shots to land 2. Also, considering the way he was KO’d by Brundage, I am concerned about his durability, but he was able to eat a million shots from Tulio and stayed tough, so maybe the chin isn’t as bad as I first expected.
He has also shown some decent wrestling offense in the past, averaging 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 75% accuracy, but has never been really able to do anything with it. He has subpar control and not the best transitions on the mat, but does have a deadly guillotine and the ability to rip someone’s head off.
His last fight was a tough look. Surprisingly, he defended 13 of 14 takedown attempts by Vieira. That part is impressive. But not only did he give up 3 minutes of control off of one takedown, but also made Vieira look like a boxing savant from range, which is not a good thing to do. He got outlanded from distance 35-14 and 38-16 in rounds two and three against him and just didn’t show much urgency to land that big shot.
So is Gore just dependent on those big moments? Or is he making enough improvements to win minutes down the stretch. Either way, until I see a jab develop, more volume, better striking defense or something out of the takedowns, I still have to rate out Gore as a finish or bust type fighter. He carries solid power and a decent guillotine, but is someone who can be outpointed from range, hurt on the feet, controlled on the mat and has to improve his minute winning and defense before trusting him at too high of a clip in the UFC.
This could be a really interesting fight. Like I said, Gore has the tools. He just hasn’t been able to put it together. I do think he could survive the early storm, land a big shot late or even get another guillotine against Bekoev if Bekoev gets sloppy and puts himself in one late. But I have to trust Bekoev to do more, especially early, and I trust Bekoev to have more output and damage which should aid his early success.
Bekoev doesn’t have the prettiest striking, but he is putting stuff together to close the distance and is at least doing something out there. Although it’s not technical, Gore is defending strikes at 40% and can be hit, I think Bekoev can land hard early. But I think Azamat gets back to his wrestling ways here and I think he has success. Gore can be controlled and I think Bekoev will shoot early and often, winning minutes in the grappling or threatening a finish.
The cardio scares me, as he can slow down the stretch, but Gore isn’t really someone to take advantage of it. Although I think Gore has a chance to finish with a big overhand and land on the 31% striking defense of Bekoev, or rack up another guillotine victory, I’m not too sold on it. I think that the most likely outcome is that Bekoev stays safe, puts together more output, better optics and he himself has the opportunity to land a big shot on the feet or dominate in the wrestling, an area in which I think he has a large edge in. Give me Bekoev to get back on track here, and send Gore back to the regional scene with a .500 record.
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On DraftKings, Bekoev is a solid upside option at 9.5k who I expect many will target when they can’t pay up further.
Clearly, there’s a gap in terms of safety between Bekoev and the massive favorites priced at 9.8k and 9.9k. Bekoev just lost to Belgaroui which doesn’t look too bad in hindsight, but I’m not sure I consider him an elite prospect or necessarily very safe.
In his two UFC wins, Bekoev has scored 124 and 113 DK points which I think will draw a lot of attention. I do want to point out that I don’t think those scores are super predictive. Bekoev slammed Resse on his head for a quick KO and Ryan Loder is awful.
Bekoev still has early finishing equity, and grappling equity, so it’s not as if he can’t replicate big scores. And Tresean Gore is someone who gives up 106 DK points on average in his losses. I just don’t think Bekoev is a lock to hit a ceiling.
Essentially, I would say that Yakhyaev and McMillen rate out far better than Bekoev and are far safer. Assuming we can’t play them, this next 9.5k-8.9k tier is wide open, with not a lot of obvious choices. I think the field will gravitate toward Bekoev first (and he may be more popular than McMillen outright), and I think that’s fine.
Bekoev is -160 to win ITD which is pretty strong and I expect to have mild or moderate exposure to him, depending on how often I force in the upper 9k options. He’s not safe but he’ll rate out pretty well for upside and has multiple paths to scoring against a historically mediocre opponent.
Pivoting onto someone else in the 8.9k-9.5k range to be unique, if that’s what it comes down to, is super reasonable though as well.
Gore is priced at 6.7k and I think he’s in play as a punt.
I don’t necessarily agree that Gore has all the tools, but he does carry power, and he’s physically strong. There’s no reason to bet on a guillotine which is an easy choke to defend, but if Bekoev slips up, maybe it’s possible.
Otherwise, I would say Gore is pretty damage dependent. If Bekoev can’t take him down though, Gore is not out of this fight.
Gore is only +550 to win ITD as a +475 underdog, so I can’t justify much exposure here. I do think he’s a clear step up from the two fighters priced below him though.
If you want the occasional punt, Gore is viable. But he’s only a dart throw based on odds and not someone I’d want to invest much in above the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bekoev by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Dione Barbosa vs. Melissa Gatto
Fight Odds: Barbosa -127, Gatto +107
Odds to end ITD: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Barbosa 8.5k, Gatto 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a women’s flyweight matchup here between Dione Barbosa and Melissa Gatto which seems competitive on paper.
Barbosa booked her ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series and then won a very close decision against Ernesta Kareckaite. Barbosa looked good early in that fight, showing some power on the feet and hitting a few trademark Judo throws. Eventually, though, Barbosa slowed down considerably and lost the latter half of the fight. She gassed, couldn’t land takedowns anymore, and got outstruck at distance.
We saw this again in her fight against Miranda Maverick, where she was taken down and held on her back for over eight minutes. Her get-ups look really poor, and she seems to accept bottom position once her initial explosiveness fades.
Barbosa then got an easy submission win against Diana Belbita. Then she lost a decision to Karine Silva where they traded some top position in a sloppy affair.
Barbosa is currently 8-4 and while she is a credentialed black belt in Judo and BJJ, I still hate her reliance on head-and-arm throws which often lead to her giving up her back. She is still a decent grappler though and lands 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes. She has some decent top control and passing abilities and can threaten with submissions.
I still hate Barbosa’s defensive grappling, and she defends takedowns at 50 percent and really struggles with her get-ups. She has been held down for entire rounds multiple times.
Barbosa lands only 2.27 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.45. She is an okay striker with some decent power bursts early but I don’t trust her much in extended striking affairs as her volume isn’t great and her cardio is subpar.
Barbosa’s opponent Melissa Gatto is kind of a freestyle fighter.
Gatto is a decent durational striker. She has evolved into a better durational striker than I originally gave her credit for as I haven’t liked her volume in the past. In her fight against Sijara Eubanks, she didn’t just survive the early storm; she actually finished Eubanks in the third round with a kick.
Gatto lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.84 in return. She also went the distance in a very competitive fight with Ariane Lipski where she actually outlanded Lipski 85-66 in significant strikes and 70-53 at range. That is actually a decent box score because Lipski isn’t bad in pure striking fights.
Gatto is also a decent grappler. She lands 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes. She can also grapple over the duration and has good cardio. Her takedown defense isn’t the best at 63 percent and can be taken down. She can also be held down to a degree but she can resist for 15 minutes and she isn’t bad at reversing position or scrambling up at times. She can also take girls down and hold position of her own.
As far as this matchup goes, I’m picking Gatto based on the fact that she is the better durational striker, has the better cardio, and her defensive grappling is superior.
I think Barbosa is a front-runner who needs to land a takedown and find a finish, or find heavy control in rounds to win. If she doesn’t get the early finish, she tends to wilt. I arguably think Barbosa is worse off her back than Gatto is, so if Gatto ends up on top during a scramble, Barbosa might just stay there for the rest of the round.
Barbosa could maybe get top position too. However, I just have a feeling it won’t always come easy and it won’t be throughout the entire fight.
On the feet, I think Barbosa can compete early and in general but I personally prefer the durational striking of Gatto more. I like Gatto’s volume more and cardio.
I expect Barbosa to be competitive early (and this will most likely be a competitive fight in general), maybe even landing a throw, but Gatto should be able to weather the storm and out-volume her in the second half of the fight.
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On DraftKings, I’m not necessarily dying to roster this fight.
Barbosa is priced up to 8.5k, but she’s down to -127 to win. I don’t think the public will be excited to target her.
I actually like her more than Tim though. I think she’s the better grappler of the two in this matchup and has a chance to win via her ground game. Her losses have come to Miranda Maverick and Karine Silva, and she still took both down. I don’t particularly like Gatto’s defense.
My fear essentially is that the fight will be competitive regardless. I don’t think Barbosa blows Gatto out of the water and she’s not the type to land 5 or more takedowns. She’s only +525 to win ITD.
I think Barbosa has a decent floor but I do question her ceiling in this matchup. At 8.5k, it’s hard to recommend much exposure. I also wouldn’t be surprised if she ends up contrarian, and at that point, perhaps she’s viable as a price play to be different.
I don’t think Barbosa is a phenomenal target and I’ll likely end up light on her. I do think she can land takedowns here which is my only pause, and potentially could find her way to 85 points in a weird mid-range build.
Gatto at 7.7k will surely be the more popular target.
I honestly don’t think she’s a great play. Her wins have come against Tamires Vidal, Sijara Eubanks and Victoria Leonardo which is about as bad as it gets.
And then in her losses, she’s getting taken down and mounted by Tracy Cortez. Even Lipski took her down.
I absolutely think she could outstrike Barbosa over 15 minutes and win a decision but Gatto hasn’t shown a ton of volume. Her career high is 85 sig strikes against Lipski and had she won that fight, she would have scored 72 DK points.
Barbosa still could get taken down a couple of times and held down, and maybe that pushes Gatto into the 80s. She’s +300 to win ITD so she has more finishing equity than Barbosa on paper. I’m just not sure I really buy it.
I think Gatto is a fine value target, and win equity target. I definitely prefer the upside of some other options in this same range, and I don’t think Barbosa is a fantastic matchup for Gatto. Still, it seems reasonable that Gatto could win and score 10x, and maybe that’s enough.
I’m really not excited to be on Gatto if she’s chalky but I’d label her a fine win equity, secondary type target who is fine to mix in for salary relief.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gatto by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Dakota Hope vs. Kai Kamaka
Fight Odds: Kamaka -150, Hope +130
Odds to end ITD: +210
DraftKings Salaries: Kamaka 8.7k, Hope 7.5k
Weight Class: 145
This matchup was thrown together at the last minute but it’s an interesting one – as Kai Kamaka returns to the UFC to take on newcomer Dakota Hope.
Kamaka made his UFC debut in 2020 and won a fun war against Tony Kelley, but that was the last time he won. After that, Kamaka lost to Jonathan Pearce and TJ Brown, and then earned a draw against Danny Chavez in 2021.
Since his release from the UFC, Kamaka has been super active. He fought five times in Bellator, going 4-1, which includes a win over Henry Corrales in 2023. He then went to PFL and went 2-1, beating Bubba Jenkins and Pedro Carvalho before losing to Brendan Loughnane via split.
He most recently fought in Tuff-N-Uff where he went 2-1, actually losing a five-round split decision to ex UFC fighter Diego Brandao.
With that said, Kamaka’s regional run has been against very strong competition and he seems deserving of a second chance, especially considering a couple of his past UFC results could easily have ended in wins.
In general, I would classify Kamaka as a kickboxer. He moves fairly well on his feet and can switch stances, and is pretty fast with his strikes. He hasn’t been a major power threat historically, and actually has won 13 times by decision in 17 pro wins.
But Kamaka can be active on the feet and can occasionally dish out damage. He landed 114 sig strikes in his UFC debut, but in his next three, he only landed 47, 61 and 48.
I pulled the data from his most recent PFL stretch, and it shows he outlanded Jenkins 90-63. Carvalho outlanded him 88-78 though 43 of Carvalho’s strikes were to the legs. He outlanded Loughnane 72-64 but Loughnane knocked him down.
Kamaka has a wrestling background but he’s not a particularly strong wrestler for MMA. Early in his career, defensive wrestling was actually an issue. He only defended takedowns at 52 percent in the UFC and was TKOd by Pearce who was the better scrambler and BJJ player. It was never an insane liability for Kamaka but he can be taken down.
He also can wrestle himself, and he will shoot the occasional takedown. He’s solid from top position but not a real finishing threat, and I’d only project him to have success against weak grapplers.
In PFL, he was taken down four times on nine attempts by Jenkins and gave up a couple of minutes of control. He won that fight by unanimous decision though. Carvalho went 1/1, and Loughnane went 0/1.
In total, Kamaka is a low upside but solid, round winning striker. His lack of finishing ability really limits him and he’ll still continue to be in competitive fights, but on the feet, he’s decent enough and can produce enough offense to win rounds.
He’ll be taking on newcomer Dakota Hope, who is 11-1 professionally at age 29. He’s earned five wins by knockout and one by submission.
Hope is an interesting fighter, and he’s not bad, but I don’t think he’s a tremendously talented prospect either. I compared him to Torrez Finney earlier in the week, which isn’t an exact 1:1 but I think is reflective of his ideal fighting style.
In the majority of Hope’s fights, he is relentlessly wrestling, and just sitting in his opponent’s guard. His control is mediocre which is why he needs to continue shooting over and over for his game to work.
In one of his recent decisions, for example, I counted eight takedowns landed with approximately 13 minutes of fight control, the majority coming on the ground but plenty in the clinch as well.
Hope is a very physical fighter, and that helps his takedown game. He’s a decent wrestler, but relatively dependent on double legs and trips against the cage.
I’ve seen him awarded a purple belt recently but his submission game doesn’t look great. Only one or two of his fights have real advances of position and in a lot of his fights, he’s just sitting in guard not trying to do much. His ground-and-pound is OK but not a real strength.
Hope apparently trains with Josh Van and company, but spent a ton of time in Thailand improving his striking skills, which he desperately needed. Early in his career, he’s just lunging forward throwing huge shots, but he lacked any technique whatsoever and is just reaching on his punches.
In his most recent fight, I actually thought his stand up looked way better. He’s actually pretty decent. He can kick at range and his technique improved dramatically. However, his problem now is that he just doesn’t want to fight there for any real length of time.
So I kind of consider Hope a burst fighter. He can strike at range in bursts, but he’s kind of small and his lack of reach is an issue. Sooner or later he wants to dive into the clinch, where he can still land some short shots, but likely needs takedowns to make his overall game work.
Hope hasn’t fought the greatest competition and that’s one real worry of mine. And even in his most recent bout where his striking looked a lot better, he still got tagged and hurt. I am just really uncertain he can string striking rounds together.
One positive for Hope is that he’s fought five rounds on four different occasions. He’s won multiple five round decisions, he won by sub in round five and he also lost a five round decision. I don’t know if cardio is a super strength of his, but it’s not a massive weakness and I do like that kind of experience.
I think Hope is OK. He’s physical enough to make his game work but I do think he’s pretty reliant on volume wrestling because a singular takedown isn’t going to amount to tons of success. His finishing instincts are limited but he has some power. I just don’t trust him against quality competition as of yet.
This matchup is interesting to me and I’m curious to see where the public lands. Kamaka doesn’t run away with fights very often, and he also has some defensive wrestling issues, so it’s pretty fair to give Hope a real shot in this fight.
However, you just cannot compare the level of competition or experience from Kamaka to Hope. Kamaka is beating legit talent and losing a split decision to Loughnane is so far and away better than anything Hope has ever done.
Furthermore, while Kamaka’s initial takedown defense is weak, his scrambling is fine. Paired with my questions about Hope’s control, I’m really skeptical his wrestling will be enough.
My best guess is that Hope can land 3-5 takedowns in this fight, but I’m very unsure if he can do a whole lot with it. He can probably earn some clinch control and ground control but I don’t see it being clearly enough to override striking exchanges.
And if he’s forced to strike with Kamaka for multiple rounds, I just see Kamaka being more active and more experienced. I favor Kamaka ultimately for this reason and I think him hurting Hope is in play as well.
It’s hard to be passionate here and if Hope can string 5-8 takedowns together, he’ll have a legit shot. Or he’ll prove his physicality is just too much. Or the striking exchanges from Kamaka will be too patient that the grappling possibly is enough to override them.
I think I have to lean with the more experienced fighter and striker here in Kamaka, but early rounds will probably be competitive.
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On DraftKings, due to the high number of closely lined fights, Kamaka is way overpriced at 8.7k while Hope looks like a value at 7.5k.
Kamaka is only -150 to win so 8.7k looks and feels expensive, especially for a fighter who notoriously doesn’t win ITD. He is actually +600 to win ITD which is shockingly bad, but realistic given his profile.
This is also just not a great matchup for Kamaka to produce points, and I think the majority of his score will need to come with a finish. Hope is going to fight way out at distance, or tight in the clinch and on the mat, so I don’t see Kamaka landing a billion strikes.
He just needs to hurt Hope. I actually do think it’s possible, and if Hope can’t land takedowns, he may be a sitting duck later in the fight. A mid-round TKO is not out of the question at all. But it’s super hard to rely on or bet on.
At 8.7k, the good news is that Kamaka should be contrarian. I think this entire 8.7k-8.3k range will be contrarian, with the exception of Ewing, while most prefer a stars and scrubs build.
So if you want a contrarian play, Kamaka isn’t terrible. He provides leverage against Hope as well who should be chalky. I do think he at least has a path to a knockout, but ultimately it’s super hard to invest much.
I don’t mind a sprinkle of Kamaka with a larger portfolio but he’s not a priority and has a thin window to hit.
Hope will likely be chalk now at 7.5k and I think he’s a good target.
I think the odds are pretty fair, with Hope as the dog, but a competitive dog. He clearly has a path to win, and Kamaka has been taken down enough that Hope winning one or two rounds is super reasonable.
At 7.5k, it’s the perfect mix of price, odds to win and fighting style. A win for Hope basically has to come from lots of takedowns and control, and/or a random finish. He may even be a better target than Estevam outright now.
The primary issue is that like Estevam, Hope might just lose. I picked him to lose. If he loses, I guess he could still score 40 points on takedowns but there’s obviously no guarantee of the optimal.
You could make a really great argument this week to get off the underdog chalk. Fighters like Estevam, Hope, Jandiroba, Gatto, Moicano all may see lots of ownership due to standard stars/scrubs constructions, and they could easily all lose.
With that said, I’ll end up with moderate exposure to Hope. He’s just too hard to get away from at this price with this fighting style. I don’t need to be massively overweight but coming in near the field makes sense as a win for him very likely puts him on or near the optimal this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kamaka by Decision (Confidence=Low)