Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker
Fight Odds: Tsarukyan -615, Hooker +461
Odds to end ITD: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Tsarukyan 9.5k, Hooker 6.7k
Weight Class: 155
We never did see Arman Tsarukyan compete for the lightweight title after his attempt was cut short due to weight related illness, but he’ll finally step into the cage for the first time in more than a year to main event against action fighter Dan Hooker.
Tsarukyan is very possibly the best fighter in this division now with the exception of Ilia Topuria, and I do expect them to compete for the title sooner or later.
Tsarukyan is extremely well-rounded, and one the best wrestlers in the division, where he averages 3.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. We’ve seen him top out at 10 takedowns landed against Matt Frevola in 15 minutes, and he’s reached 7 takedowns landed in three rounds against Damir Ismagulov as well.
On top, Tsarukyan is a real threat. He’s capable of landing brutal ground-and-pound, and he battered Joel Alvarez to a pulp with it in 2022. He’s also very submission capable, though he only holds five wins by sub and none have come in the UFC.
We’ve seen him take the back on many occasions though, and we’ve also seen him gut out multiple submissions from Charles Oliveira. So overall Tsaruyan is just a high-quality wrestler and grappler and likely capable of beating most fighters in this division with wrestling alone.
He’s developed some pretty solid stand-up as well, and it’s really been an asset for him more than a liability. He lands 3.79 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 1.84 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate.
Purely at distance, Tsarukyan lands 5 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.8 per minute which is fantastic. He’s got some power, some depth to his striking with a kicking game, and his defense is sound.
Tsarukyan is a great fighter and very possibly a future champion.
Dan Hooker has been around for a long time, and he actually made his debut in the UFC in 2014. Since then, he’s picked up a 14-8 record which is strong, and I consider him a solid second-tier talent.
Hooker is mostly an action fighter though and primarily a striker. He’s been in several wars and he doesn’t mind that style of fighting. He went toe to toe with Dustin Poirier in 2020 in one of the fights of the year, and that’s arguably when he’s been at his best.
He lands 5.03 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.72 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate.
Hooker is pretty long and will have a few inches height and reach over Tsarukyan. He likes to pressure and he has a strong kicking game, with knockout power. I wouldn’t label him a knockout artist but he’s hurt many opponents over the years.
The issue is Hooker just fights too competitively with everyone. 155 vs. 153 strikes landed against Poirier. 122 vs. 110 against Felder. 125 vs. 100 against Turner. 65 vs. 64 against Gamrot most recently.
It shows up in his defensive metrics clearly, and the point is, while Hooker is capable of a lot of action, he doesn’t always separate in rounds. He can be hurt occasionally too and he’s been knocked out a couple of times. He’s tough though.
Hooker isn’t as strong on the mat, where he only averages 0.73 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He also defends at 78 percent which is OK, and his submission grappling is fine.
We’ve seen him defend well at times and he’s coming off a nice win over Gamrot where he had to scramble up a bunch of times. Makhachev submitted him without effort in 2021.
In terms of this matchup, Hooker can definitely compete on the feet here, and he’s going to need to keep the fight upright and scramble as much as he can.
In pure striking exchanges, Hooker throws more volume on paper but Tsarukyan is better defensively. I may honestly still favor Tsarukyan outright though I think the fight would be pretty competitive.
Tsarukyan has a massive wrestling advantage on paper though, and that’s why he’s a big favorite here. He’ll project to land 3-5 takedowns or more over 25 minutes, and with that, he could dominate rounds and potentially pick up a stoppage.
I didn’t love Hooker’s first-level takedown defense against Gamrot last time out and it just makes me confident Tsarukyan can get him down if needed. Hooker should do well to scramble up but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ate some GnP or even had his back taken on multiple occasions.
It’s a tough battle for Hooker in that way because even if he can scramble up, he’s not clearly better on the feet. He has a +0.3 distance ratio while Tsarukyan has a +2.8 distance ratio.
My guess is Hooker will try really hard but he’ll have a difficult time landing Tsarukyan, and when he pressures, Tsarukyan will just take him down and control him. A dominant decision or mid-late round finish for Tsarukyan seems pretty likely.
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On DraftKings, Tsarukyan is a big favorite and priced up to 9.5k.
This is another massive slate with 14 fights, and I’m expecting more big scores. For that reason alone, I don’t believe you have to force in a 9.5k fighter at chalk.
However, Tsarukyan will project as the top overall target on this slate given his wrestling style and five rounds to work.
He hasn’t always scored dominantly on DraftKings, but that’s partially because he hasn’t always been forced to wrestle. In his lone main event that he lost, Tsarukyan would have only scored 89 points in a win.
But we’ve also seen him top 120 points in several three round wins when he does wrestle, and in this spot, I expect him to wrestle. He’s -140 to win ITD which is quite strong, and given that he prefers ground-and-pound, a finish can score well too.
Tsarukyan simply has the best floor/ceiling combo in a win of any fighter on this slate, where I’d be very surprised if he didn’t approach 100 points, and I think a 110-120 score or larger is quite likely as well.
Although I won’t force him into every lineup, when I can afford Tsarukyan, he’s my favorite play on this slate and I expect to have moderate-heavy exposure overall. The field will likely follow suit, and he should be the most popular fighter outright as well.
Hooker is priced at 6.7k and is mostly a leverage target.
He’s not going to wrestle much or at all, and I’m skeptical he can land a lot of strikes. Even 120 sig. strikes over five rounds is 80 DraftKings points, so his ceiling isn’t guaranteed here.
He probably needs a knockout to win, but he’s only +550 to win ITD. I don’t think he will be popular though and obviously he’s a talented fighter, and there’s variance in striking exchanges. Playing Hooker would put you on a different combination than the majority of the field.
It’s just a bad matchup for Hooker and I don’t have much confidence that he will win. I’d prefer to pay up for more win equity and only really consider Hooker a low-end/dart/leverage target this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tsarukyan by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry
Fight Odds: Garry -272, Muhammad +225
Odds to end ITD: +225
DraftKings Salaries: Garry 8.8k, Muhammad 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
One of the biggest villains in MMA, Ian Machado Garry will take on former champion Belal Muhammad this weekend.
Garry is a well-rounded fighter. He can strike a bit and grapple a bit. On the feet, Garry is arguably the best round winning striker in the division.
Garry lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.77 in return. He controls range well and uses his long frame at 6’3” to land long strikes. He throws a lot of straight punches like jabs and straight right hands. He will mix in some kicks and head kicks as well.
I like the way Garry controls range. He is in and out quickly. He has some speed with his footwork and hands and has generally been faster than all of his opponents. He also has some accurate and precise strikes. He lands clean and is definitely capable of hurting opponents. He has a few one punch knockouts on his record now.
Garry really likes to counter strike on the feet. When his opponents come into range, Garry generally slides back and will make them pay. His counter right hand that knocked out Williams was nice. I also really liked the leg kicks that he showed against Neil Magny. Garry can also fight going backwards which is a great skill to have.
My main issue with Garry on the feet is that he leaves his head straight in the air. He has been tagged a few times in the UFC. However, he really has dominated most of his UFC rounds other than getting hurt occasionally.
Garry is also a competent grappler. He can land takedowns, hold position well, and threaten with submissions. He has one submission win in his professional career. I don’t consider him a great or good wrestler. I doubt he will outgrapple above-average UFC competition. However, he can absolutely take advantage of weak grapplers. He hasn’t been going to it in the UFC though and only lands 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. Garry’s defensive grappling also seems competent. He generally defends takedowns well or works up.
Garry will be taking on former champion Belal Muhammad who recently lost his belt to now former champion Jack Della Maddalena. Muhammad is a well-rounded and skilled fighter. He also has great fight IQ and generally fights with optimal gameplans. He also has tremendous cardio and is never a risk to slow down. I do think he is limited athletically though and he has had some good stylistic matchups lately.
Muhammad is a decent striker and pressure boxer. He lands 4.46 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.78 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent. He has some decent hands and can throw in combination. He can keep up a high pace. He again isn’t the most athletic guy or heaviest hitter. However, he fights smart and is perfectly capable of winning fights on the feet in this weight division.
Muhammad is also a capable grappler. He lands 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 6 per fight. He is capable of landing takedowns, riding top position, and getting the back. He isn’t a super potent offensive submission threat. Furthermore, Muhammad is really hard to take down and defends takedowns at a fantastic 90 percent. He completely shut down Sean Brady and Demian Maia from taking him down which impressed me.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is a decently competitive matchup.
I do think Muhammad could land takedowns. However, I don’t think they will come easy and I don’t know if he can easily hold Garry down. Muhammad could maybe steal a round with a takedown or something but I am leaning against it, and I ultimately think the striking exchanges will decide who wins this fight.
I do lean Garry on the feet. Garry is much bigger and taller than Muhammad. I also think Garry can control the exchanges in kicking range. I tend to think Garry will have an advantage with the kicks and be able to land more consistently from that range than Muhammad who is moreso a boxer. My guess is Garry just controls the range, lands a bunch of kicks with the occasional straight punches and wins a mildly competitive decision.
I do respect Muhammad though. I do think Muhammad could pressure box and keep exchanges competitive and if he mixes in a takedown, it could make this a close fight. Ultimately though, I just like Garry’s range control, length and kicks more so Garry will be my pick for taking home the victory this weekend.
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On DraftKings, despite the name value here, I don’t consider this a very strong fantasy target.
Garry is priced up to 8.8k and may honestly just be a bad play when you consider the name value. On a 14 fight slate we need smash scores, and Garry rates out very poor in that regard.
This fight is only three rounds and he won’t project to wrestle. Plus, Garry is only +310 to win ITD which is really poor, in a fight that’s -285 to go the distance.
Belal can occasionally be hurt and so it wouldn’t be the craziest outcome in the world if Garry knocked him out. But Belal has only been knocked out once and just survived five rounds fine with JDM who is more dangerous than Garry.
In a decision, Garry will project to land something like 80-100 significant strikes, and he may only score 70 DK points. I doubt he’ll be super popular but if you take away the name value, there aren’t many reasons to like Garry as a fantasy asset this week.
I’d probably rather fade him or be super light on Garry in general than hope he’s going to KO Belal cold early in the fight.
Muhammad is priced at 7.4k and is probably the superior fantasy target.
I think he will need takedowns to win, though he’s already talking about how he’s going to strike with Garry to remind people who he is. He just tried to box with JDM so I wouldn’t doubt it, despite me largely thinking he’s a very intelligent fighter.
If he strikes with Garry, Belal can win, but he won’t land high volume and rounds would be close. He’d have some chance to hurt Garry as Garry has been hurt before, but it would be hard to bet on and Belal is only +650 to win ITD.
Belal can land some takedowns here, and I think 2-4 is possible. I still doubt he’d do a whole lot with it but it could be enough to swing rounds. So if Belal wins a decision, 80 sig. strikes and 2 takedowns could be enough, and he could score 80 DraftKings points.
That may not be optimal but at 7.4k, it would at least give him a chance. Belal is a former champ and a really good fighter so I’m not counting him out of this matchup. It’s still not an easy matchup.
Like with Garry, you can argue being underweight is the right call here if Belal will get lots of ownership on name value alone. I don’t mind him as a low-end target though and he’s somewhat safe to fight 15 minutes and score a few points.
Ultimately I don’t consider either fighter a priority here and I’d be fine coming in light on the fight as a whole. Belal rates out a little better for his wrestling equity at the price.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Garry by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield
Fight Odds: Oezdemir -218, Menifield +183
Odds to end ITD: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Oezdemir 8.9k, Menifield 7.3k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger here between UFC veterans Volkan Oezdemir and Alonzo Menifield.
Volkan Oezdemir just lost a somewhat competitive decision to Carlos Ulberg. Before that, Oezdemir had back to back KO wins over Walker and Guskov.
Oezdemir is mostly a striker. He lands 4.95 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.22 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent which is good but I do consider him a bit hittable.
I consider Oezdemir a competent and aggressive pressure striker. He can pressure opponents and land in combination. He also has decent low kicks as well which was the main difference maker in his decision win against Aleksandar Rakic. Oezdemir also has some power on the feet and has won by knockout four times in the UFC.
I still have concerns with Oezdemir though. I mean even Paul Craig was wobbling him a bit and Krylov rocked him too. He just looks a little vulnerable on the feet at times and was knocked out by Jiri Prochazka, which gives me a bit of pause. He did get some nice recent wins over Bogdan Guskov and Johnny Walker though and the losses of Oezdemir have legitimately come to the best fighters in this weight class.
Oezdemir also has some decent first layer TDD. He has a decent sprawl and defends takedowns at a solid 80 percent. I still worry about Oezdemir once he is actually grounded though. He has been finished on the mat against Daniel Cormier and Anthony Smith. Krylov also had a lot of success on the ground against him. Oezdemir has also shown cardio issues in the past. However, I do think his cardio has improved. Oezdemir is a fine fighter.
Oezdemir will be taking on UFC veteran Alonzo Menifield. Menifield is alright. He has some issues, but he has some things going for him.
Mostly, Menifield is just very powerful, especially early in fights when he is fresh. He has a lot of power on the feet and is capable of knocking out anyone in the division. He won a power based decision against Dustin Jacoby as well by hurting Jacoby badly over a couple of rounds. He basically just wings hooks and also can mix in close quarter strikes in the clinch. He lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.76 in return, and generally wins striking fights via power based knockouts or random power based decisions.
Menifield is also an okay capable offensive grappler. He only lands 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes but against weak opponents, he can take people down and beat them up. We saw that against Fabio Cherant. He took Cherant down and finished him quickly. He also has a decent guillotine choke that he can deter takedowns with. We also saw him submit Jimmy Crute with that choke in their second fight. Menifield can also land big ground-and-pound from top position as well. He is also decent at defending takedowns at 78 percent.
The issue is Menifield generally fights in bursts ,and doesn’t have the best gas tank and is not the best fighter over the duration. We have seen him tired and beaten up on the feet with volume. We have also seen him defend takedowns early, forced to grapple more, and then get taken down very tired and controlled a bit. So I will always be a bit concerned with Menifield when fights extend as his gas tank is not strong. I still consider Menifield UFC level, capable, and dangerous though.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Menifield’s power will have to show up here for him to win. He certainly could knock Oezdemir out and I consider that possible.
Furthermore, he could hurt him a time or two and make the scorecards interesting if that happens.
The issue is I don’t think Menifield will be able to win often if that power does not show up. Oezdemir is a much busier striker and Menifield does not like pressure or high paced fights.
In Menifield’s last matchup, he landed 29 significant strikes against Oumar Sy and only absorbed 34. Oezdemir is likely not going to give Menifield a slow paced fight. So my guess is Oezdemir is likely to just land more, fight at a higher pace, and potentially take advantage of his cardio advantage over Menifield.
So Oezdemir is the pick for me. If he just avoids the power, he should win and is the rightful favorite in this matchup.
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On DraftKings, this is a fairly boom or bust matchup on either side.
Of the two, I do prefer Oezdemir who is priced at 8.9k although that’s more expensive than what I’d like to pay. At that kind of price tag, he needs an early knockout to contend for the optimal and it’s possible on a 14-fight slate it’s still not enough.
Menifield can be hurt and finished early though, and he’s been KOd in each of his last two losses including a 12 second KO loss against Ulberg. Oezdemir is -110 to win ITD which seems fair.
This isn’t a spot I’m going to be overly passionate about. Oezdemir might hurt him or he might not. I like playing into the spot a little bit for early finishing equity but Oezdemir still doesn’t carry a top end ceiling and will totally bust if the fight extends.
Coming in near the field makes sense to get a little exposure here, but not take a large stand in either direction.
Menifield is priced at 7.3k and probably won’t be too popular.
Menifield won’t wrestle much or at all and he won’t land a lot of volume. I mostly agree he needs to hurt Oezdemir to win. He is only +400 to win ITD which isn’t great.
I don’t love Menifield in this spot. Oezdemir has been pretty durable and is busier than Menifield. There’s always a puncher’s chance and there’s lots of variance in striking exchanges, but this isn’t a particularly good matchup for Menifield.
I only consider Menifield a low end play. It’s fine to mix him in around the field but I’m guessing he loses and I’d rather invest elsewhere.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oezdemir by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Fight Odds: Orolbai -241, Hermansson +202
Odds to end ITD: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Orolbai 9k, Hermansson 7.2k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have one of the most random fights of the year here between Myktybek Orolbai and Jack Hermansson.
Holding a professional record of 14-1-1, Orolbai fights out of Kyrgyzstan. He fought in LFA pre-UFC and now holds a 3-1 record holding some decent wins against Uros Medic and Elves Brener. He did lose to Mateusz Rebecki in a back and forth affair.
Orolbai is mostly a wrestle boxer. I consider his wrestling pretty decent honestly. He has a decent double leg and he can float on top and advance position. I have also seen him wrestle for 15 minutes without slowing down all that bad. I personally do not think his wrestling is elite. However, I do think he can wreck weak grapplers on the mat.
Furthermore, Orolbai can box a bit. He manages distance okay and he has some good straight punches. I also think he has power and is a pretty good athlete. He is physical as well. He can hurt guys at this level.
I still just dislike Orolbai’s defense on the feet though. He dominated Musayev and Medic on the mat so he faced no resistance from them.
He wasn’t easily able to dispose of Rebecki and Brener on the mat and it turned into a sloppy back and forth war on the feet at times. I just think Orolbai is vulnerable to lose when he can’t dominate on the mat. I do not think he is a quitter or a front runner or anything like that. He will try to stay tough and win a war if he needs to. However, I don’t think his striking is really good enough to easily take care of guys he can’t outwrestle. Brener and Rebecki aren’t even very skilled or good strikers and he went life and death with both of them.
Orolbai’s will be taking on Jack Hermansson who is making a random drop to welterweight for this fight. Hermansson has been a long time main stay at middleweight so this cut is surprising.
I just want to start off by saying that I have seen a lot of people this week just assuming Hermansson is done. However, I actually think Hermansson has looked totally fine in his last few fights and he has been fighting killers. I mean two fights ago the guy beat Joe Pyfer! Pyfer is a really good fighter.
In Hermansson’s last matchup, he was doubling up Gregory Rodrigues at range and got hit with a massive punch and was knocked out. Rodrigues is huge and a massive hitter. I mean I don’t like seeing Hermansson getting knocked out but that was the first time he was standing KO’ed since Jared Cannonier in 2019. I just think Hermansson is being underrated here.
I have always respected Hermansson. He has been in the UFC for about 10 years now with an 11-7 record, fighting very good competition. He has never lost two fights in a row in the UFC which is pretty impressive. He is just a consistent fighter.
Hermansson also just has consistent offensive production as well. On the feet, he has actually turned into a solid striker. He lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.70 in return. He has gone a hard five rounds with fighters like Sean Strickland and is very battle tested.
Hermansson puts up a lot of volume on the feet and mixes in straight punches and a lot of kicks. He uses his length and range well. His striking performance against Chris Curtis was very impressive. He used an in and out game and just skated around Curtis for 15 minutes, outlanding him 100-43 in significant strikes. He also just beat Joe Pyfer in a mostly five round striking affair, and outlanded him 121-92 in significant strikes.
Hermansson is also a skilled grappler. He lands 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and is known for a ruthless ground and pound game from top position. He has finished guys like Gerald Meerschaert on the mat. I don’t think his offensive takedowns are great but he can be tenacious at times to earn his landed takedowns.
I also consider Hermansson to have a good defensive grappling game. He defends takedowns at 80 percent and recently stopped all six of Joe Pyfer’s takedown attempts. This guy also had an exhibition pure wrestling match and he fought Chimaev off and after getting taken down a few times in the first period, Chimaev was unable to secure takedowns after that.
Hermansson is just a solid fighter. He has great cardio and has some good striking volume. He is also a fine defensive grappler and has a good top game. I think the things Hermansson lacks are punching power and athleticism. Overall though, Hermansson is a good fighter.
Look, I do not know how this weight cut will impact Hermansson. Maybe Hermansson comes down in weight and just looks like a shell of himself and can’t take a punch.
However, Orolbai isn’t some major KO artist on the feet. He is a wrestler. Furthermore, Hermansson hasn’t even looked bad. He beat Joe Pyfer in five rounds two fights ago and since then, he had a 4 minute fight against Rodrigues where he was doing well and got caught. This +220 Hermansson line seems like a classic over reaction. I honestly think Orolbai’s fights against Brener and Rebecki were more concerning than Hermansson’s last fight.
I think if Hermansson looks 80 percent of himself here, he should probably be favored.
On the feet, I think Hermansson is a better overall volume striker. Orolbai hits harder and could maybe catch Hermansson early but other than that, I think you have to favor the striking experience and volume of Hermansson. If Hermansson can survive five rounds against Pyfer, I think he can survive early vs Orolbai more often than not.
I also think Hermansson is a good defensive wrestler who Orolbai could struggle getting down. Maybe I am wrong and Orolbai just dominates Hermansson on the mat. I don’t know though man. I do think Orolbai could land some takedowns early but I honestly think he will face resistance. My guess is Hermansson stops plenty of takedowns and works up as well.
Furthermore, Orolbai gave up some sloppy positions vs Brener, Hermansson has an amazing top game that people forget about and if Hermansson gets one of those positions on Orolbai I could see Hermansson scoring big moments.
Look, maybe Hermansson just looks horrible, but I can’t look at 4 minutes of a fight against Rodrigues where he was winning and then knocked out and assume he is bad now. So my guess is this line is off and Hermansson stylistically has the tools to beat Orolbai. This is an interesting one and I am excited to see how it plays out.
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On DraftKings, Tim’s analysis is honestly enough for me to shy away from Orolbai.
Logically, the arguments make sense and I agree that Hermansson has a real path to make this fight competitive at distance. He does tend to lose by KO or ITD which is my primary concern, but Gregory Rodrigues is a massive hitter and better boxer than Orolbai.
Additionally, I am guessing Orolbai will be chalk. Priced at 9k, I am guessing that’s who the public will look to when they aren’t fully paying up to the top of the board. He’s scored 115, 123 and 107 in his three wins so his upside is legit.
In this matchup, Orolbai is +125 to win ITD which is decent. He has some KO equity and he also can land takedowns. I think 3-5 takedowns are pretty realistic over three rounds, and with that, he could do some damage.
So ultimately, Orolbai is always going to rate out well for upside. Hermansson isn’t an easy target but who knows how the weight cut will go. Maybe he gets hurt again. Even in a wrestling decision, Orolbai can score well.
Assuming he’s also going to be chalky, I do like pivoting off him. Riley and Oezdemir surround him in price and I think both are live for KOs. There are a couple of solid plays in the 8k range as well.
If Hermansson can simply not get demolished on the mat, which I think is likely, then he probably does force a stand-up fight here and it probably is competitive. He could really kill off Orolbai’s score and even win. It’s fine to play into the field here knowing Orolbai’s stylistic upside but I kind of like the underweight approach in larger fields.
Hermansson is priced at 7.2k and will primarily be a leverage target.
I wish I was a little more excited by him from a fantasy standpoint but I do think we could see him win a competitive, distance based decision if he wins at all, which won’t score too well.
However, Orolbai has had some weird moments… Brener took him down three times and had him in bad spots late in that fight.. Rebekci knocked him down and took him down three times as well..
Hermansson is huge. And Hermansson is actually kind of a beast on top to the point where if the tide starts to turn, and Hermansson gets on top, I actually could see a finish. He is only +650 to win ITD but it’s not out of the question.
Considering the leverage here, I like Hermansson some. He’s one way to be unique and you can play him with other chalk on the slate, which I am a fan of. He’s actually a really good fighter too.
I’m still worried a little bit about pure upside but there aren’t a whole lot of places where I’m comfortable to save salary this week, and Hermansson could be a little sneaky. I don’t mind taking a bit of an overweight stance on him.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hermansson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Shamil Gaziev vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Fight Odds: Cortes-Acosta -144, Gaziev +123
Odds to end ITD: Under 2.5 RDs -110
DraftKings Salaries: Gaziev 8.4k, Cortes-Acosta NA (projected 8.3k)
Weight Class: HW
We have a totally random switch up as Shamil Gaziev will take on Waldo Cortes-Acosta on ultra short notice.
Gaziev was scheduled to fight Serghei Spivac but Spivac pulled out on Wednesday, and the UFC announced Cortes-Acosta as the replacement. It’s extra weird because Cortes-Acosta just fought against Ante Delija on November 1st, and was “TKOd” with a flurry against the cage that was actually a severe eye poke. After minutes of delay, they restarted the fight and Cortes-Acosta knocked Delija out cold. I’m just surprised he’s cleared and ready to go.
Gaziev last fought Thomas Petersen in February and knocked him out cold in the first round as well. He’s now 3-1 since entering the UFC with his only loss coming to Jair Rozenstruik in the main event in 2024.
Gaziev is now 14-1, with nine wins coming by knockout and three coming by submission.
He dropped his opponent quickly on DWCS, but got reversed and had his back taken. Gaziev then reversed position himself and choked the guy out.
Against Buday in his UFC Debut, Gaziev pressed forward and hurt Buday with his hands pretty immediately. He scared Buday away with the pressure, and just wore him down until Buday quit early in the second round.
It was an interesting performance because we haven’t seen too many extended striking exchanges from Gaziev in the past, and that’s definitely not his biggest strength.
Typically, striking has been a method for him to close the distance and take his opponent to the canvas, where he has had the majority of his success. Against Rozesntruik in that main event, Gaziev was completely outclassed, and outlanded 123 to 17 at distance until the fight was stopped after the fourth round.
It really showed the limits of Gaziev’s distance game and despite Rozenstruik being a legitimate kickboxer, Rozenstruik is low volume and also doesn’t wrestle well. Gaziev only took him down one time on seven attempts and I think essentially showed the ceiling that his style brings.
As far as his grappling credentials, Gaziev doesn’t even rate out super well there either. He’s big, and physical, and has been able to roll through a bunch of low-level opponents on the regional scene and some in the UFC.
Still, it doesn’t take much to have success as a wrestler in the heavyweight division. As long as Gaziev pursues the takedowns, he’s arguably got a path to victory against the majority of the division. He most recently took Don’Tale Mayes down three times to win a decision, and that type of outcome is on the table in future matchups.
For now, I see Gaziev as being able to mostly beat up the lower class of this division. He needs to pressure where his pocket boxing can actually have a chance, and he needs to wrestle and earn top position.
Cortes-Acosta is going to be a tough matchup for him on paper because he’s a skilled boxer and excels at distance.
Cortes-Acosta now has an 8-2 record in the UFC which is really strong, and has only lost to Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Sergei Pavlovich. He hasn’t beaten many elite opponents but has wins over Spivac and Delija among others.
Cortes-Acosta lands 5.53 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.52 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate. I wouldn’t say he has elite power but he’s starched a few guys, and at HW, everyone is capable of winning by knockout.
Generally speaking though, I consider Waldo more of a round winner than a dominant knockout threat.
He’s also limited to that aspect of his game and won’t often pursue the wrestling, where he only lands 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes. He actually has only wrestled once, against Olympic striker Robelis Despaigne whom he took down three times to win a decision, which actually showed strong Fight IQ.
Defensively, Waldo has been hit or miss. He defends takedowns at 72 percent which is good but de Lima did take him down three times to win a decision. Spivac recently took him down twice as well, but was only able to manage 2:25 of top control.
That’s arguably very important because although he can give up the occasional takedown, Cortes-Acosta has shown solid scrambling ability, and is tough to hold down for long periods of time. It’s still more of a weakness than a strength but he’s pretty good for the HW division.
As far as this matchup, I simply have to favor the style of Cortes-Acosta. He’s a better distance striker and more likely to win minutes. Gaziev was so bad against the only real distance striker he’s faced that it’s possible Cortes-Acosta whoops him and knocks him out.
Otherwise, a dominant decision is on the table too.
The more often Gaziev can close the distance the better. He can potentially rough Cortes-Acosta up on the inside, and hurt him. We almost saw Cortes-Acosta lose by TKO in his last fight but obviously he showed toughness and was only mildly hurt, not badly enough for the fight to actually be stopped.
If Gaziev can swarm him and hurt him with pressure, then he’ll be fully dependent on wrestling. Although I do think Gaziev could land takedowns, it’s hard to project him for many and it’s hard to project him to earn a lot of control.
The fight could be close though. I’m unsure how Cortes-Acosta will look on short notice but I’d assume he’s fine. If he’s only jabbing at distance, he may not be impactful enough to fully dominate rounds, in which case a takedown or a big punch could still swing a round.
I’m really not a fan of Gaziev’s style though and I think the most likely outcome is he loses rounds and a decision.
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On DraftKings, Gaziev was already priced in at 8.4k so he’ll keep that tag, despite now being the underdog.
It is funny to see a late replacement be the favorite, which is rate, but I guess it matches up with my analysis. Gaziev will therefore be $500 or so overpriced, and I think the field will not want to play him much because of it.
The only positive here is that Gaziev carries some upside in his style. He can land takedowns or win by KO. ITD odds aren’t out yet but the fight is a pick’em to go O/U 2.5 rounds, so I’m guessing we won’t get a great number on Gaziev.
He feels boom or bust and really, it’s not a great matchup for him to hit a ceiling. While I can understand mixing him in for contrarian purposes, I’m not very excited by the prospects of him dominating Waldo here and I won’t aim to be too high on him.
Cortes-Acosta isn’t priced in yet but I’m guessing he’ll be lined around 8.3k which is fair for a slight favorite.
I wasn’t that high on Cortes-Acosta last time out because he is more than happy to place a safe distance game, and he doesn’t hunt for KOs. Delija went buck wild though and tried to kill him, and that forced big exchanges.
It’s the same issue here. If Gaziev is going to try to kill him, Waldo will have opportunities to land big shots. If Gaziev is trying to wrestle and clinch, but not throw big exchanges in the pocket, Waldo is more likely to just play a distance game and extend the fight.
He’ll have solid finishing equity for the price I am guessing, but it won’t be a stand out line. He’ll fall into the boom or bust category because of it as he really needs the early KO to hit.
I don’t hate Cortes-Acosta here because he should have a big advantage at distance and if Gaziev can’t wrestle, a mid-round TKO is on the table. I wouldn’t want to take a real overweight stance though as I’m unsure how much gas he’ll have late in the fight and also, he just has a very thin window to hit.
This just feels like a classic boom or bust HW fight all things considered, and I won’t end up with a ton of exposure myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Alex Perez vs. Asu Almabayev
Fight Odds: Almabayev -193, Perez +163
Odds to end ITD: +123
DraftKings Salaries: Almabayev 8.7k, Perez 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting fight here between Asu Almabayev and former title challenger Alex Perez.
Almabayev is from Kazakhstan and is 22-3 professionally, fighting in various regional promotions such as M-1 and Brave. He is now 5-1 in the UFC and has generally been able to take advantage of poor defensive grapplers in his wins. His one loss was against Manel Kape where he couldn’t land takedowns, and he got dominated on the feet and knocked out in round three.
Almabeyev is simply a wrestling dependent fighter. I don’t think he is great or anything as a wrestler, but his takedowns are decent and he has an understanding of floating on top. He also looks to be a somewhat competent submission grappler.
I also like that he is tenacious with takedowns and lands 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. He attempts about 10 takedowns per fight. He has good cardio too and can wrestle hard and tenaciously for 15 minutes which is his biggest strength.
I think Almabayev can beat average to below-average tier grapplers at this level, but I tend to think he won’t outwrestle the higher class of this division. I think his losses vs the top guys will be dominant because he won’t be able to dominate on the mat and his striking is poor. That’s why I played Kape against him.
On the feet, Almabayev isn’t good and he doesn’t really present much danger. He does throw spinning stuff and some okay leg kicks, but I question his ability to win on the feet in the UFC. However, I do think he is fast and is hard to hit so he can limit damage on the feet. He just limits engagements.
Almabayev will be taking on UFC veteran Alex Perez. I like Perez. He is a well-rounded fighter who is capable of winning rounds and fights in a variety of ways. The issue with Perez is he has had long layoffs so often as he has had multiple knee injuries. He is coming off another knee injury coming into this fight and hasn’t fought for a year and a half which was a fight where he was finished by Tatsuro Taira. It is just hard to know what form Perez will be in.
Perez excels as a wrestler. He lands 2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at 46 percent. He also has good takedown defense at 77 percent and is rarely ever stuck in bottom position. He defended 17 of 20 takedowns against Muhammad Mokaev which was super impressive.
Perez has offensive submission ability as well and is capable of anaconda / front headlock chokes as well as arm triangles.
Perez has been submitted a few times in his career. However, only two submission losses have come in the last five years, against Fig and Pantoja who are dangerous, so I don’t think his submission defense is a major liability.
Perez is also a decent striker. He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.20. He lands strikes at 46 percent and defends at a decent 48 percent. His numbers are good and he is solid, but I do think his striking numbers are skewed to a degree. He landed 84 significant strikes on Jose Torres in 3:46 of fighting (which honestly may be some type of record) and a lot of the strikes landed were when Torres was clearly compromised from already being hurt.
Furthermore, Perez has also landed a decent amount of ground strikes. So I don’t think he is quite as good of a striker as his numbers indicate. I mean he was outlanded by Eric Shelton and Benavidez at distance. I also think Perez’s volume has lacked in his recent fights as well. I feel like he could have thrown more against Mokaev and Nicolau.
However, Perez is still formidable as a striker and he also has power on the feet and very good calf kicks.
If I knew I was getting prime Perez here, I would pick him to win. I think prime Perez would simply limit the wrestling of Almabayev, get a striking fight and land the more powerful strikes and either hurt Almabayev or just win a clean decision by landing harder shots on the feet.
That honestly may happen still this weekend and I nearly picked Perez for the upset. I think my concern is that Perez isn’t going to look as good as I hope. I think some of the foundation will be there, some decent defensive grappling and decent striking where Perez will display a bit of an advantage over Almabayev.
However, I think I am just worried that Perez won’t do enough. I just can’t get over the last few Perez fights where he had some striking opportunities and didn’t let his hands go.
I could easily see Perez and Almabayev being boring on the feet where Perez is not throwing enough and Almabayev is annoyingly limiting engagements so the striking rounds could possibly be very low paced. I could then just see Almabayev attempting like 13 takedowns, landing 3 of them and winning because he just outhustles Perez a bit more. I just have a weird feeling something like that is going to happen.
My gut is telling me Almabayev won’t dominate with grappling here but I have a feeling Perez just won’t dominate on the feet because he won’t be active enough or be his prime self and then Almabayev will potentially separate by landing a few takedowns and edging the fight because of it.
This is a tough fight though because it is all dependent on Perez’s form. If Perez is his prime self, he could dominate here. However, I have a feeling he won’t look optimal and it will be a competitive fight where the hustle of Almabayev could be the ex factor.
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On DraftKings, I’m not super high on this fight.
I’ve been quite high on Almabayev throughout his young UFC career because from a fantasy standpoint, wrestling in volume scores very well. I have also been very high on Perez for years, and I’ve picked him to win nearly every fight he’s ever had.
I’ve been wrong a lot with Perez, but why not try one more time?
Even if you look at his last four losses, which have come in his last five fights, it’s Figueiredo, Pantoja, Mokaev and Taira which is the best of the best this division has to offer.
While I do love Almabayev’s wrestling equity, he’s still underperforming a bit and I think he lacks the physicality to dominate against the top tier of the division. Even Taira and Mokaev struggled to easily wrestle Perez. Figgy and Pantoja did submit him, but Almabayev has struggled to finish fights in the UFC.
Basically, I think Almabayev can land some takedowns here but unless he’s on the back for many minutes at a time, I don’t think he’s winning cleanly. Perez might simply defend and outstrike him, or even take him down too.
Almabayev is priced at 8.7k and I don’t think I can back him this week. He’s coming off another great score of 97 points, but that’s with seven takedowns and 9.5 minutes of control. I just don’t think he can match that here.
If I’m wrong though, Almabayev can score very well. We know he needs to wrestle a lot to have success, so his floor is high in a win. Perez has been subbed before. Almabayev is only +285 to win ITD which isn’t strong.
I just don’t love this matchup for him and I think there’s a lot of bust risk. You can mix Almabayev in as a secondary target for wrestling equity but I’d personally rather hope he gets public attention and come in light.
Perez is priced at 7.5k and I think he can win but I’m not sure he can score well.
If he wins, I think the most likely outcome is 0-2 takedowns and 60 significant strikes. So it’s very possible Perez scores like 60 points in a win which would suck.
Almabayev can be hurt, and Perez is +300 ITD but I wouldn’t count on the finish. Perez is semi-dangerous though. He also carries some wrestling equity and Almabayev has already been taken down by two weaker wrestlers.
I think Perez is just a fine salary play. I think he has a legit shot to win. He’s cheap enough to afford you some studs. I definitely question the ceiling and his floor is low as well, so he’s ultimately only a low-end secondary target and not a true priority.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Perez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley
Fight Odds: Riley -264, Grad +219
Odds to end ITD: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Riley 9.1k, Grad 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
Of all the debuting fighters, I may be most interested in Luke Riley who is taking on Bogdan Grad in what should be a really fun matchup.
Riley is 11-0 professionally at age 26 and he’s earned eight wins by knockout and three by decision. He’s an English Cage Warriors product and fights out of the same gym as Paddy Pimblett.
Riley reminds me very much of Nathaniel Wood, though they aren’t the exact same type of fighter, I think Riley can come into the UFC and be an immediate mainstay with his striking.
Riley is a kickboxer, and he likes to take the center of the cage. He works at a very high pace, and he will attack multiple levels. I wouldn’t say he’s a super powerful striker and he’s not going to get many one-shot kills, but he can beat you up over the course of three rounds and he’ll carry real finish equity via attrition.
Particularly, I like that Riley is fast, and he seems to stay safe at distance, at least in comparison to Wood who would always go to war on the regionals, I haven’t really seen Riley hurt.
This division is very strong so Riley isn’t going to have a championship ceiling, but he looks like a super legit kickboxer who can compete in rounds and do some damage.
The question marks will probably come in the mat, although I’ve liked what I’ve seen there from Riley to the point that I think he can keep fights upright. He was taken down a couple of times in his most recent win, but he scooted back to the cage and wall walked up, and eventually TKOd his opponent who got tired of wrestling with him.
In other situations, I’ve seen him scramble and take the back, and it looks like he’s well trained on the mat. I don’t think he’s a great submission grappler and I’ve really never seen him force offensive wrestling exchanges, but I don’t think he’s an extreme wrestling liability either.
Great wrestlers will probably take him down and control him, but Riley should be able to keep up fine with the mid levels of the division.
Overall, Riley just looks like a lot of fun. He’s the right combination of skill and pacing, and I think he’ll be in a lot of fun fights where he can get his hand raised.
He’ll be taking on Bogdan Grad who has had a fair share of fun fights himself.
Grad is now 1-1 in the UFC and is coming off a decision loss to Muhammad Naimov. Prior to that, Grad defeated Lucas Alexander by second round TKO in his UFC debut.
Grad appeared twice on DWCS, and he arguably lost both times. He was KOd badly by Tom Nolan in 2023, and then he fought to a super close decision against Michael Aswell, absorbing 155 sig. strikes over 15 minutes.
Grad is now 15-3 professionally with nine knockouts and three submissions.
To me, he rates out as a solid round winner against the lower levels of the division, but not much more.
He’s a solid boxer who can fight at a high pace, and he does carry some power. He’s also a decent wrestler and a brown belt in BJJ. I wouldn’t say he’s elite at anything but the fact that he’s willing to box and wrestle is a good sign.
He chased after the TDs against Alexander pretty hard, and got three of them in the first two rounds. Eventually Alexander was tired and Grad was able to mount him and finish with ground-and-pound from the back. He actually attempted eight takedowns there which was great.
Alexander has been finished on the mat before though, so it’s still a weak level of competition, but I do think the offensive style Grad employs can lead to success.
The issue is probably on the defensive side. He’s only been KOd once, and never subbed, but the lone KO was a bad one, and then he gave up 155 sig. strikes to Aswell who kind of sucks.
I expect Grad to get hit a decent amount. I do think he’s tough and I like his cardio enough, but he’s defending strikes at 49 percent and I wouldn’t say he’s the best athlete. It’s going to bring variance onto the table, and also just allow others who work at decent paces to remain competitive with him.
I’m not fully sure about his defensive wrestling. I think his base is fine and I’ve seen him scramble up at times. He’s also been taken down here and there so he can be grounded ultimately.
Against Alexander, he ended up on his back early after a failed takedown attempt. He didn’t look awesome there and wasn’t urgent in getting back up. He looked like he could be controlled for a while. At the same time, he was patient, didn’t allow many shots, and eventually did scramble up with intent and immediately wrestled himself. It simply wasn’t the best look but it wasn’t the worst look either.
My guess is that it will be a liability at some stage but I’m not sure exactly what level of competition it will take. Giving up the occasional takedown and mild control feels likely.
Most recently, Grad landed another three takedowns on Naimov which honestly made the fight pretty close. Naimov landed one of his own, and landed some harder shots to swing the fight in his favor.
As far as this matchup, I think it has potential to be really fun.
Riley brings a pace, and Grad is willing to oblige at times. There is a chance that we get a brawl of some kind, though Riley will be the more defensively sound fighter and Grad will likely bring bigger power.
I would have to favor Riley pretty substantially in that kind of fight, as the superior technician who is also fast. I wouldn’t be surprised if Riley picked up a KO along the way either.
Grad has been pretty consistent to wrestle now and I assume he’ll attempt takedowns here too. He attempted another 10 against Naimov which does give him a path to victory, and I think it’s possible he can land another 2-3 against Riley.
However, I don’t think he can do a whole lot with it. I’d expect Riley to scramble up without taking a whole lot of damage. It’s still a path on paper for Grad to make rounds competitive.
Riley just passes the eye test for me in a lot of ways. Grad could hurt him or make striking rounds competitive, but I think it’s more likely that Riley pulls away on the feet and probably hurts Grad along the way.
The additional wrestling factor gives Grad a shot but again, I have some faith in Riley to remain defensively sound enough and outwork Grad on the feet. I’ll pick him to win by mid-round TKO.
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On DraftKings, Riley sets up as an interesting semi-contrarian play to me at 9.1k.
He’s too expensive for what I’d like to pay given his style, which will likely not come with wrestling. Therefore, he needs a high-action early knockout to have a chance to be optimal.
Especially on a large slate with 14 fights, Riley doesn’t need to be a priority. And with Tsarukyan and Yakhyaev priced above him, and Orolbai priced below him, there are other obvious targets.
This fight is also only -150 to end ITD which is good, but Riley’s ITD line of +115 isn’t necessarily a stand out.
I do think we could see a knockout though, and depending on the pace and timing of it, Riley can score well. If we get 60-80 strikes and a second round finish, that’s pushing 110 DraftKings points.
I just like the potential for exchanges. Exchanges mean opportunities and I think if Riley gets enough of them, he can hurt Grad. It might not be the most likely outcome but I also don’t think he’ll be super popular compared to other fighters in this range.
I like taking chances on Riley personally as a pivot target this week, and especially when I cannot pay up further. If he simply wins by decision with 100 significant strikes though, then he will bust.
Grad is priced at 7.1k and is viable from a pacing stand point.
If Grad wins, I think it will have to look much more like the Aswell fight than the Naimov fight. He’ll need to land 80+ significant strikes and 3+ takedowns, and hope to win a close decision, or hurt Riley.
So if Grad wins, I think we get a really strong score that’s potentially optimal at 7.1k. He’s only +400 to win ITD though and I don’t think either path is particularly strong.
Grad is only a low-end target for me this week. At 7.1k, sure he can be mixed in a little bit but I like what I’ve seen from Riley and I don’t want to bet against him in this matchup too much.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Riley by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Rafael Cerqueira
Fight Odds: Yakhyaev -1250, Cerqueira +789
Odds to end ITD: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: Yakhyaev 9.8k, Cerqueira 6.4k
Weight Class: 205
The UFC will welcome light heavyweight prospect Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev who will debut against Rafael Cerqueira this weekend.
Typical UFC matchmaking here as Yakhyaev is a legit prospect, so he’s being matched up with probably the worst fighter in the division in Cerqueira who he should smash quite easily.
Yakhyaev is 7-0 professionally with three wins by knockout and three by submission, and he has a background in combat sambo.
He’s a strong wrestler and is good from the body lock, but I’ve seen him hit a variety of takedowns including single legs, and he’s pretty reliable to shoot early. He can classically float in top position, advance position and threaten for a finish in a variety of ways.
I’ve seen him land a bunch of ground-and-pound, and he has a mix of submissions including guillotines, RNCs and triangles.
On the feet, Yakhaev isn’t as strong but still likes to blitz early and he’s coming off a 30 second knockout on DWCS in August.
Most of his fights have ended very early but he also has a five-round win which is obviously a positive.
I do have concerns though. Although I think Yakhaev is very good, I don’t think he’s great. His win over Kovalenko in 2023 was specifically concerning, as Kovalenko outscrambled him pretty severely.
Kovalenko was all over Yakhaev in that fight. Taking his back, controlling him from top position. Yakhaev looked exhausted early in the fight as well and I did not like what I saw from the bottom. He actually still submitted the guy with a triangle from his back, but despite the comeback win, I think it’s a clear red flag.
He was shooting for guillotines in that fight and I’ve seen him do it in others. A little bit of poor Fight IQ, or perhaps inexperience. Yakhaev is good.. but I worry that a solid wrestler and scrambler would outwork him and beat him.
Additionally, on the feet, Yakhaev looks kind of vulnerable to me. If he can’t get his takedown game working, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in competitive exchanges, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got hurt.
He doesn’t like to play at range for long periods of times, and even with his striking, he’s using it close the distance usually. But I mostly feel comfortable when Yakhaev is in clear control and pressuring, ideally landing takedowns along with it.
Cerqueira is now 0-3 in the UFC and has looked utterly awful in all three fights.
He’s now 11-3 professionally at age 35, and he’s earned eight wins by knockout and two by submission.
Unfortunately, we were already desperate for fight footage from Cerqueira, of which there is almost none available from his regional scene.
He suffered a first-minute loss to Ibo Aslan in his debut, and I thought we saw some better flashes from him against Bukauskas, but ultimately that fight ended in two minutes with Cerqueira getting blasted on and knocked unconscious.
Most recently, he lost a decision to Julius Walker who’s a mid-level prospect, and Walker easily outwrestled him and also hurt him standing.
At this point, it seems very likely that Cerqueira will continue to get dusted, and that’s clearly how the market perceives his chances.
In general, I would label Cerqueira as a capable offensive striker, who has a background in BJJ.
In his brief regional highlights, his kicks look pretty sharp, and he can attack the body and head. He will spin, throw some flying stuff, and he’s had success doing both. There are a couple seconds of footage of him on the mat, including one where he’s locking up an arm-triangle and one where he’s holding onto a back ride.
I have tried to give him a pass as we’ve been working with such small samples, but man his last fight was awful. Cerqueira had a couple of OK moments on the feet, but he gave up six takedowns on 10 attempts and was controlled for nearly 12 minutes.
Additionally, Walker kept up with him at distance 18-19 and knocked him down in the third round. Unless Cerqueira can win by KO, and most likely early KO, he just isn’t going to win at this level.
In this matchup, Cerqueira has a puncher’s chance and that’s probably it.
Yakhaev should be able to take him down easily, and probably just beat him up with ground-and-pound and get the stoppage. Maybe Cerqueira can survive from his back, but I kind of doubt it.
Even on the feet, I think Yakhaev is more likely to bomb on Cerqueira than vice versa. Cerqueira clearly isn’t defensively sound or durable.
I think there’s a really good chance Yakhaev just blitzes Cerqueira, drags him down and finishes the fight. There are other matchups where I might worry about Yakhaev but this isn’t one of them.
—
On DraftKings, Yakhaev is priced up to 9.8k, and I’ll be curious to see if he’s popular.
We’re coming off a 14-fight slate with a similar 9.8k fighter in Susurkaev who was only 26 percent owned, and only scored 102 points. That card was much more stacked with name value than this one though.
But with Tsarukyan priced at 9.5k, it’s going to be difficult for the public to play both, and of the two, most will prioritize Tsarukyan at his price tag.
That’s where I would lean in the sense that Tsarukyan will just fit lineups more easily, and he has a higher ceiling on paper with five rounds to wrestle. With that said, Yakhaev should smash Cerqueira and I wouldn’t be surprised if he picked up a quick win bonus too.
The bottom line is Yakhaev is a massive favorite, -1250 to win ITD and he’ll have a great chance to win in round one. If I can afford him I will strongly consider playing him, with the only real consideration being salary and Tsarukyan.
Cerqueira is priced down to 7.4k and is only a dart throw.
He’ll trade early, and he’s not terrible for a minute or two. He just needs an immediate KO or he’s not likely to win. I don’t consider that a likely outcome and with a smaller portfolio, I will probably just fade him.
If you’re max-entering, you can consider a dart or two. Obviously the leverage is nice and he will probably be sub 5 percent owned. He’s still only +1000 to win ITD.
This is most likely a quick fight and I wouldn’t bank much on Cerqueira pulling off the upset, but it’s MMA so nothing is impossible.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yakhaev by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
Fight Odds: Ulanbekov -216, Horiguchi +182
Odds to end ITD: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Ulanbekov 8.6k, Horiguchi 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Russian prospect Tagir Ulanbekov, is looking to continue the momentum after defeating Azat Maksum in his most recent fight. He will have a chance to do that when he takes on the well regarded and former UFC title contender Kyoji Horiguchi who will be returning to the UFC.
Tagir has a lot of experience on the Russian circuit. He is 17-2 professionally. Tagir is pretty well-rounded. He thrives mostly as a wrestler and he generally takes his opponents down and gets control on the mat. He lands 2.94 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Tagir has been able to land takedowns so far in the UFC and I like his body lock takedown. He hits it against almost everyone. He has landed a takedown in 6 of his 7 UFC fights.
Tagir is also a dangerous submission grappler. He can take the back, hold position, and threaten in general in top position.
Ulanbekov has an absolutely nasty guillotine which he showed against Maness and on the regional circuit. He nearly submitted Nascimento with it as well. Tagir actually has 9 submissions in his career out of 17 wins and I consider him a good submission grappler.
I also LOVE LOVE LOVE Tagir’s get-up game. This guy has some of the best get ups in all of the UFC. He surrendered some takedowns to Bruno Silva and Tim Elliott and currently defends takedowns at 62 percent. However, I still consider his TDD fine and those guys obtained NO control on Tagir. His get-up game is seriously amazing. He also easily swept Durden the one time he ended up on his back. He then did the same thing to Clayton Carpenter. He also worked up vs Maksum. He has some dirty butterflies to use for sweeps.
Tagir is a competent striker. He has a decently long frame for flyweight at 5’7” with a 70-inch reach and is a skilled boxer, particularly with his long punches. He almost outlands everyone to the head, and I also like his cardio. He can wrestle and strike hard for 15 minutes. His volume is concerning though and only lands 3.37 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.36. I don’t totally love him on the feet as he does lack some power and volume, but I do think he is decent and extremely experienced. I think he is a better striker than his metrics indicate.
Tagir will be taking on the returning Kyoji Horiguchi. Most of you probably know Horiguchi. He had a good run in the UFC and only lost once, in a title fight against Demetrious Johnson. After he departed the UFC, he has gone 17-3 becoming champion in Rizin and Bellator at different points. He has beaten some very good fighters. His losses have come by KO to Sergio Pettis, KO to Kai Asakura, and Decision to Patchy Mix. I want to point out that Horiguchi avenged his losses to Pettis and Asakura. Mix just back packed Horiguchi for a few rounds to win.
Horiguchi is a good, well-rounded fighter. He can do everything. He is very fast on the feet and I consider him a technical striker who has good speed. He has some good leg kicks and is just a solid striker in general. I like his game.
Horiguchi is also a solid wrestler as well. I consider his offensive wrestling competent and he can beat below-average grapplers on the mat. He is also a pretty decent defensive grappler as well. He has been grappled before generally against bigger and very good grapplers and wrestlers. He can also get backpacked too. Horiguchi is still not easy to take and hold down though and I do think his scrambling is pretty good. I think only very good grapplers can take advantage of Horiguchi on the mat.
I consider this a really technical and good matchup between Horiguchi and Tagir. I honestly expect a lot of neutralization. I tend to think both of these guys could take each other down. However, I do think Tagir has more control upside and more of a chance to win by submission. Tagir could potentially take the back. I don’t expect complete dominance on the mat by either guy though.
I still don’t think Tagir is going to outwrestle Horiguchi easily though and I honestly expect Horiguchi to resist and scramble away at times.
So this fight could be decided on the feet and I think the striking is very competitive. I tend to like Tagir’s straight boxing and length a bit more. However, I honestly lean Horiguchi on the feet a bit due to his speed, experience, and his striking diversity. Tagir just never really runs away with striking fights and I doubt he pulls away here.
I really just expect a back and forth close fight here. A takedown may land here and there for either guy and I expect the striking rounds to be back and forth. This is honestly a step up for Tagir as far as a striker goes so I honestly am going to pick Horiguchi. Maybe I am wrong and Horiguchi who is a bit older now looks declined but I am pretty confident this is going to be a competitive fight.
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On DraftKings, this is another spot that I don’t feel great about the favorite despite liking their fantasy profile.
I’ve been high on Tagir in the past and he’s a really strong wrestler, but hasn’t exactly smashed on DK often. He’s coming off a really tough win over Maksum where he couldn’t land takedowns which really surprised me.
I don’t feel great about this matchup for him because Horiguchi is honestly one of the top 10 flyweights of all-time. He’s really good everywhere and he just beat Sergio Pettis in his prime, so he still has it.
I do think Tagir can land takedowns but I expect neutralization in all areas, and I think we see an extended fight. I’m just not sure if there’s a path for Tagir to smash outside of a random punch landing or a quick submission.
Tagir is only +285 to win ITD here which backs up my concerns, and I just don’t want to invest much at 8.6k.
My only hesitation is that a win for Tagir probably comes with a few takedowns landed, so 80-90 points are still in play. He’s even crossed 90-100 in a decision before. We like to target wrestlers. This is a step up in competition though and I worry we don’t see domination.
Horiguchi is priced at 7.6k and I’d put him into a similar tier as Perez where I think Horiguchi can legit win (I’m going to pick Tagir to squeak out the win with some takedowns) this fight but I’m unsure if he can score points.
Tagir gave up three takedowns to Maksum which is concerning and Horiguchi can wrestle. I doubt that even if Horiguchi does wrestle, he’ll do much on top though. Tagir will limit him there.
Otherwise, we probably see a mid-paced and competitive decision. Horiguchi is +600 to win ITD which isn’t very strong and I’d be surprised by a finish.
I don’t mind Horiguchi as a sneaky win equity play, and he does save salary. He’s only a low-end target though as his floor and ceiling are very much in question.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ulanbekov by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Bezkat Almakhan vs. Aleksandre Topuria
Fight Odds: Topuria -143, Almakhan +122
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Almakhan 8.2k, Topuria 8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a highly anticipated fight here between Aleksandre Topuria and Bezkat Almakhan.
Aleksandre Topuria carries the weight of having his brother Ilia’s last name so a lot of eyes were on him when he made his UFC debut earlier this year against Cody Thicknesse.
Topuria had an okay performance against Thicknesse and won a clear decision by landing more power shots than Thicknesse on the feet in the first couple of rounds and then outgrappling Thicknesse in round three.
I still didn’t totally love the performance by Topuria though. Topuria only landed 41 significant strikes in the fight. The distance strikes were actually even at 35 for both men and Thicknesse was able to land free wasted volume when he needed to. Thicknesse is a god awful striker with zero power threat, who looked horrible on the feet in his last matchup against Josias Musasa, so I am worried Topuria can be volumed up by better strikers.
I did think Topuria’s counter grappling and base from top position looked strong though. He didn’t actually initiate many takedowns himself though so I am a little worried about his offense and volume in general.
Before that fight, Topuria was a bit of an unknown commodity. He is 6-1 professionally and is 29 years old. On the regionals, he had a few fights in 2015 against unknown competition and actually lost one of those fights, but I don’t even factor them into my analysis of him as a fighter because they were over ten years ago when he was 19 years old.
Topuria then didn’t fight again until 2021 and basically has just quickly finished really bad competition with power striking or grappling until he finally made his UFC debut against Thicknesse.
So there are some question marks on how good Topuria actually is given he has only had one extended fight in the last decade against a semi poor and unathletic fighter in Thicknesse.
Topuria does fight a lot like his brother. They basically have the same stance. Almost everything he does looks like Ilia honestly but I question his skill level, and am pretty confident he is just a worse version of his brother. Aleksandre comes in and throws those power hooks, and I do think he clearly has some power in the pocket. He also likes to mix in a low leg kick and likes to work the body as well. I do worry about his volume though and I do think he can allow point scoring strikes, especially kicks, from the outside. I am worried he will get outpointed by striking based opponents.
I do think Topuria’s actual wrestling looks pretty good from the eye test. His defensive grappling vs Thicknesse looked strong and although I question his offensive submission skills, he has a strong base in top position and I do think his takedowns look strong.
I still just don’t know how good of a striker and wrestler Topuria actually is. I do have more faith in his wrestling at this point. However, I really just need to see more of Topuria against better competition to get a read on him. If I had to guess, I think he is a mid level UFC talent. I think he will beat guys in the UFC but I think he will especially struggle against volume strikers in this division as I am not sure he has the game changing power his brother has. Time will tell though.
Topuria will be taking on UFC debutant Bekzat Almakhan. Almakhan fights out of Kazakhstan and is 17-2 professionally. He is 28 years old.
Almakhan made his UFC debut against Umar Nurmagomedov which was basically an impossible task. Almakhan was outwrestled for three rounds but he actually dropped Umar early in the fight, and fought hard and escaped to his feet once or twice. After that fight, Almakhan knocked out Brad Katona in round one which was a nice win.
Before the UFC, Almakhan generally fought in random regional promotions against guys with decent records who looked okay. However, his quality of competition has made it hard to evaluate him.
Honestly though, this guy looks pretty good. I have not really seen many holes in his game, and I do not have many bad things to say about him.
Almakhan can wrestle a bit offensively and hold position quite well. He doesn’t look like a huge submission threat, but I think he is a pretty quality grappler. Even defensively, I think he looks pretty good. I have seen him allow opponents to get deep into his hips on shots, but he generally defends well and turns his defense into his own top position. Umar outwrestled him but Umar is the best technical grappler in this division. I do think he can be controlled a little and makes some mistakes when trying to work to his feet, but I overall like him as a grappler.
As a striker, Almakhan also looks decent. He has a really good rear kick which he generally uses to target the body. He has turned it into head kick knockouts as well. I do think his hands are decent too and he generally seems comfortable controlling range out there. I do think his volume and depth of striking may be lacking a bit though and I have seen him badly hurt before.
Almakhan is super fast though and I think his speed is his greatest weapon. He also has some pop and has knocked many opponents dead, and knocking out a very durable fighter in Brad Katona was impressive.
This is a tough matchup to call. There are unknowns about Topuria in general. I am going to take a guess on how things will go but do know it is hard to picture how some of these sequences will go given we don’t fully know Topuria’s level.
I actually think I favor Almakhan standing. I think he is clearly faster than Topuria and I think he can land strikes on the outside. I honestly think speed may be the difference here. I do think Topuria has more power in the pocket and could have some success there. However, Almakhan has some pop too and I think he will be at an advantage when this fight is at a longer range. I do think either guy could hurt the other. Both of them have pop.
I do think I have more faith in the defensive grappling of Topuria though. Topuria looks like he would be very hard to take and hold down. The positional wrestling may be where Topuria can win this fight. I still think Almakhan is a fine grappler though so I am actually leaning towards the grappling canceling out to a degree. Either guy could probably land a takedown or something but I am leaning against big stretches of control for either guy.
So the striking exchanges will probably determine the winner of this fight and since I lean Almakhan a bit there, I am leaning him to win this fight.
I seriously could be wrong here though. I am really not sure how this fight will look or how either guy will fight. I don’t really know much about the durability of Topuria either. Either guy may try to just strike or grapple. There are just many unknowns here. So it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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On DraftKings, I kind of hope the public gets sucked into the name value here but I’m not particularly high on the matchup from a fantasy sense.
It is really difficult to know what’s going to happen and the matchups we’ve seen from both in the UFC have told us little. Let alone the fact that Topuria’s regional tape has no meaning.
Almakhan is priced at 8.2k but he’s now a slight underdog and trending toward a bigger one, and I assume that means the public will be off of him. However, he is coming off a quick RD 1 KO, so his box score looks nice.
Still, I don’t think people want to bet against Topuria and I don’t really want to bet against him either. I don’t think he’s a great talent, but I’m not necessarily excited by the prospects of Almakhan running through him.
Almakhan is still +175 to win ITD and the fight is -200 to end inside the distance which is interesting. He feels incredibly boom or bust to me, and I don’t think Topuria is going to yield a ton of points. Almakhan probably needs a knockout.
If he’s going to be very low owned with the line movement, I guess he’d rate out fine from a contrarian sense, but I can’t really recommend investing a lot here. I’d honestly rather shy away and hope the fight extends.
Topuria rates out as a slight value but trending toward a strong one at 8k, and obviously carries the more popular name.
However, his lone UFC win scored 65 DK points and he didn’t look super threatening. I do think he carries some knockout ability and wrestling ability, but like Tim I question the pacing.
I really don’t know how much success Topuria will have. Maybe he can KO Almakhan and maybe he can land takedowns. He’s also +175 to win ITD. The books have no idea what to do with this fight either.
I guess of the two, I have to lean toward Topuria at this for the value and having a higher fantasy ceiling or being the fighter more likely to achieve it. I think he could land takedowns and earn some control. He’s likely knockout or bust as well though.
I really don’t mind shying away from this fight if the public is going to jam in the value, but it could just be the wrong decision. Playing both sides near the field is a fine strategy as well.
It’s another high-variance fight and I guess I don’t mind a bit of Topuria at value for finishing equity in a vacuum, but neither fighter rates out incredibly well and with a 14 fight slate I’d be fine to put my chips elsewhere.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Topuria by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ismail Naurdiev vs. Ryan Loder
Fight Odds: Naurdiev -132, Loder +113
Odds to end ITD: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Naurdiev 8.5k, Loder 7.7k
Weight Class: 185
Both Ismail Naurdiev and TUF winner Ryan Loder will look to rebound from recent losses inside the Octagon this weekend.
Loder is 7-2 professionally at age 34 and he’s earned five wins by KO and two by decision.
His most recent win came in the TUF finale against Robert Valentin, where Loder was able to find the crucifix in the second round and pound Valentin out for a stoppage. More recently, he was beaten up badly by Azamat Bekoev for a first round knockout loss in May.
Loder is a wrestling specialist where he was a 4x national qualifier and D1 wrestler at the University of Northern Iowa, and he’s now a wrestling coach at Team Alpha Male.
Given those credentials, it’s not a surprise that his wrestling and top game have been the primary reasons for his success.
On The Ultimate Fighter, Loder took his first opponent down immediately and subbed him with an arm-triangle. In his second fight, he landed a couple of takedowns but mostly kickboxed with his opponent to a decision.
Entering the UFC, I honestly didn’t think Loder had the goods. His regional tape looked pretty bad to me. He lost a decision in 2023 where he wasn’t too effective with his wrestling, and his striking looked generally looked poor as well.
That seemed to carry over into his latter TUF fight too. I just think he has huge technical gaps as a striker, and I can’t imagine him being effective at this level. He tries a bit, but outside of landing something big in a brawl, he’s not going to be winning most striking exchanges.
He’s been clipped or hurt on a number of occasions, and most recently ate a bunch of big shots from Bekoev that put him down.
His pure wrestling is fine, and obviously he has the pedigree. If he can secure the body lock, he can dump his opponents on the mat and will have an avenue to earn top control. But I don’t consider him a fantastic wrestler for MMA, and I just haven’t seen him be consistently effective in taking opponents down.
On top, his control and submission game seems pretty weak as well, and he has zero pro subs on his record, though again he did win by sub on TUF.
In that debut against Valentin, the finish from Loder was impressive from the crucifix but Valentin isn’t a great wrestler himself. Additionally, Valentin was able to take Loder’s back early in that fight and even had him flattened out.
I’m just not that high on Loder as a pure submission grappler or finishing threat. I don’t love his ability to take the back and he could be a defensive vulnerability. I don’t want to undersell his wrestling and top game either as he’s fine in those areas and if his opponent can’t scramble well, he can lay on top of them or threaten a finish.
It will simply come down to the level of opponent. If he has a terrible wrestler in front of him, he’ll just take them down, lay on them and potentially find a finish. If not, he probably gets defended and outstruck, and possibly hurt.
Next up will be Ismail Naurdiev who is 24-8 professionally and in his second stint in the UFC.
Naurdiev originally went 2-2 in his first UFC run, losing to Sean Brady and Chance Rencountre before being cut from the promotion in 2020. He had a mixed run on the regional scene and was called back up to fight Bruno Silva in 2024, where he won a clean wrestling based decision.
Most recently, Naurdiev had a super weird fight with JunYong Park. Naurdiev won the first round with some clean striking, but then landed a brutal illegal knee in the second round and celebrated as though he had won the fight. Instead he had points taken away, and ultimately got tired and lost the final round by giving up his back.
Naurdiev is still only 29 years old and isn’t a terrible prospect, but he needs to show some consistency because it’s been too many ups and downs.
For now, I do consider him pretty well-rounded. He’s a solid, technical muay-thai striker who’s been very effective with his kicking game at distance.
He reps the name Australian Wonderboy and has some of that flash and showmanship to his game, earning 12 wins by knockout although none have come in the UFC. His metrics in a small sample are really strong though, and he lands 3.69 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 1.77 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate.
Naurdiev doesn’t throw incredible volume and has only topped out in the high 60s or low 70s, but he’s generally outlanding his opponents at distance and has some power threats as well.
Naurdiev has been hurt though too. He lost via leg kick TKO and regular TKO on the regional scene in between his UFC stints, which does give me pause.
I don’t think Naurdiev is going to dominate striking rounds against strong competition, but especially when he can control exchanges, he should be able to get ahead of opponents and do some damage.
Naurdiev also has a wrestling base and he’s mixed in takedowns from time to time. I wouldn’t label him as a great wrestler per say but he’s fine offensively and lands 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes.
He’s won six times by submission and had a couple of decent back take opportunities against Park, but again he’s not some massive BJJ threat.
Defensively has been hit or miss. Both of his first two UFC losses came via wrestling but Brady and Rencountre both specialize on the mat so it’s hard to fault him there. He did at least survive Brady although he gave up a lot of control time in both fights.
Most recently Park was able to get him down twice but the big red flag was when Park reversed him in the third round and took his back, Naurdiev was completely gassed and just let the round and fight expire.
I like Naurdiev’s wrestling to a degree but he’ll only be an impact when he’s in control. He’s not going to beat strong wrestlers but it is another path for him to produce occasional offense.
As far as this matchup goes, I lean toward Naurdiev and potentially more than I should.
I just think Naurdiev is way better than Loder at distance, and is likely to beat him up and potentially knock him out. I really wasn’t high on Loder coming into the UFC for his lack of striking, and my fears were kind of confirmed in his last fight.
If this fight plays out at distance over three rounds, Naurdiev should light him up with kicks and I think he has a real chance to hurt Loder as well.
So Loder has to take him down and lay on him to win this fight. Loder is a little bit bigger as a natural 185er where Naurdiev has fought at 170 often. I do think the size could play a role, and more importantly, if Naurdiev gets very tired, that could play a role too.
But Naurdiev is also probably a better submission grappler. Loder’s already had his back taken in the UFC and I wouldn’t be shocked if Naurdiev could take him down and take his back as well. Even if Loder gets a takedown or two, I think Naurdiev can scramble up.
The damage gap on the feet just seems wide to me, where Loder will have to do a lot on the mat to overcome it. If Naurdiev loses this fight, it’s essentially over for him as any kind of real prospect in my mind.
I am a little bit worried that Naurdiev will underperform my expectations, and I guess that’s why the betting line is competitive here. The last round against Park was a bad look, but that’s still a quality opponent in Park who was taking his back which I’m not sure Loder will do. Plus Naurdiev had a lot of success early.
I’m going to take Naurdiev to keep the fight upright enough to do some serious damage, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he looks like a much bigger favorite in hindsight.
—
On DraftKings, we’re actually seeing line movement toward Loder which will make him the value and the more popular target.
As of now, I’m actually projecting Loder to be outright chalk as I think he’s one of two cheap ish fighters who the public will want to jam in (Topuria being the other). I do understand it with the line movement + the wrestling equity, and Naurdiev has looked shaky at times.
Loder freaking sucks though, and the only reason I’d personally want to play him is to not get burned badly by the situation. I have zero faith that he can easily hold Naurdiev down for three rounds but if he wins, it’s going to come on the mat. He’s also +285 to win ITD and has some finishing equity on paper.
So despite me hating Loder as a talent, if he wins, he probably exceeds value and contends for the optimal. With the line trending his direction, he makes for a good secondary target and it’s probably safest to come in near the field.
From a matchup analysis standpoint, I’d be perfectly content pivoting off Loder and hoping he loses.
Naurdiev is priced at 8.5k and I’m hoping he’ll be low owned now, coming off the ugly loss and with the line moving against him.
I mostly consider him boom or bust but I think he has RD 1 KO upside, and an early KO might even be the most likely outcome of the fight as he’s still favored to win. A decision is possible too of course.
Naurdiev is actually +140 to win ITD which is pretty strong, and I think he’s one of the better contrarian plays on the slate if he indeed projects to be lowish owned. This 8.5k-7.7k range is up for grabs and if the public is only going to jam in Topuria and Loder, moving off of them is one easy way to be more unique.
I am guessing I like Naurdiev in the matchup more than the public and I’m a bit nervous but oh well, it’s one spot I’m willing to take a chance on and the low ownership helps. You don’t need to go crazy here as an extended fight is still possible.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Naurdiev by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Nurullo Aliev vs. Shem Rock
Fight Odds: Aliev -289, Rock +239
Odds to end ITD: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Aliev 9.2k, Rock 7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Nurullo Aliev’s a Contender Series alum who earned a contract back in 2022 but hasn’t been a very active fighter since entering the promotion due to injury – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 10-0 as a pro. Shem Rock is a Euro national who’s spent the last couple years fighting in the Czech based promotion Oktagon. He’ll be making his UFC debut on Saturday – he’s 12-1-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
We don’t have a ton of footage of Aliev standing given his floor base but he falls into your traditional herky jerky, sambo coaster.
He’s going to use a lot of lateral movement and then look to burst in with his strikes.
But it’s often lots of hooks and overhands so he’s definitely not a “polished” striker at this point and hasn’t shown to be a real power threat (despite loading his shots), with no pro wins via strikes at distance.
Defensively, he’s struggled with the jab of some longer fighters when he was fighting up at 170 and a bit when he’s put on the back foot – by and large he’s not a guy really eating extended combinations given all of his movement though.
That’s about all there is to say with the kid so far.
Rock is a grappler by base where most of his fights end up on the floor so we don’t have a vast striking sample of him.
In the bit we do have, nothing really blew my hair back.
He’s a long guy for the weight class but he also just doesn’t really do much as a lower volume fighter.
He’ll pop a jab here and there with some front kicks and body kicks where he’s hurt a couple guys, but he doesn’t appear to possess much power in his hands.
The best way to describe his style is that he’s more so just existing standing to then try to get going on his grappling.
Defensively, he hasn’t faced a ton of volume his way but in his only pro loss to Kelly, he ultimately got backed up and put down.
While Kelly is a somewhat credible loss, Kelly is a fellow jiu-jitsu guy himself so to get knocked out standing by him isn’t a good look.
Overall, I’d like a bigger sample of Rock standing before making any super definitive claims but I haven’t seen much to suggest that he’s going to offer much standing at this level.
How it plays out: We don’t have full measurables on Rock but he will be the longer guy here. I don’t have much of an opinion on the stand up considering both guys just aren’t good strikers. If Rock was more active from the outside, he could win exchanges but it’s hard to project his volume to magically increase. On the flip, the blitzes of Aliev could realize him success but he also doesn’t have much in the power department. That said, Aliev’s never been finished whereas Rock has.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Aliev comes from a combat sambo background where he’s a European champion in the discipline.
He possesses that prototypical grinding style that’s going to wear his opponents down.
He’s actually not the greatest guy in terms of securing his original shots but it’s his ability to chain wrestle which can get to opponents. When on the ground, his top control has been pretty solid but he doesn’t appear to be an active submission hunter.
He will open up with GNP though in which we did see him finish off Wick on the Contender Series – he’s shown it off in some other regional bouts and late against Alves in his debut as well.
Defensively, he’s never really been wrestled and is in the driver’s seat offensively all the time, so there isn’t much to say in regards to his TDD – given his background, the natural assumption is that it’s probably pretty good.
But he did get stuck in a triangle against Kryukov back in Eagle FC for a handful of minutes before eventually working out. He also got stuck in 2 tighter guillotines against Alves – the last one was pretty deep that ended him getting reversed to mount but he was able fight it off and pump sweep back into top position – Alves is a black belt with a pretty nasty squeeze historically so impressive he was able to fend those off – Solecki also had him in a triangle last time out as well but he also worked out of it.
Nonetheless, still a bit concerning from a macro perspective in him getting caught in stuff.
As noted, Rock comes from a grappling background where the floor is where most of his work is getting done – although I’m unsure of his official credentials.
Given his frame, he’s got more a gangly, hustling grappling style where he’ll look to time reactionary duck-unders or work from the body lock to drag opponents down.
Although I still wouldn’t consider him to be anything special as a wrestler. His transitional grappling looks pretty decent though in being able to advance position and get to the backs of opponents – 9 of his 12 pro wins have come via submission.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on a ton himself but his first layer TDD looks okay and he will look to attack front stuff.
That said, I have seen him get outhustled in positions as well which leads me to believe he may run into some bigger issues when facing more effective chain wrestlers.
Overall, Rock’s jiu-jitsu appears solid but I’m pretty skeptical of his overall wrestling game as it relates to a UFC level.
How it plays out: Classic grappling matchup with the sambo guy versus the jiu-jitsu guy. I do think Aliev is on some borrowed time in terms of getting officially subbed, just because he’s been put in so many attempts and Rock does have the frame to threaten. That said, if he can’t catch Aliev, he’s going to get grinded here as Aliev will also be the best wrestler he’s fought to date.
I ultimately have to side with the sambo guy over the euro jiu-jitsu guy so the pick is Aliev but there will probably be some sketchy moments.
—
On DraftKings, Aliev is fairly expensive at 9.2k and he makes me pretty uncomfortable.
This matchup as a whole makes me uncomfortable. Aliev clearly has wrestling upside, but despite landing takedowns in his last two wins, he hasn’t scored incredibly well on DraftKings.
That came with nearly 12 and 8 minutes of control too, so I’m just worried that without a finish, Aliev won’t be able to reach a real ceiling.
In this matchup, Aliev is only +265 to win ITD which is pretty concerning. He will carry a strong floor given his wrestling style, but I’m not sure he has an easy path to a finish and the odds back that up.
There are just too many other strong targets nearby too, that I cannot prioritize Aliev. If he projects to be very low owned, there will be some contrarian appeal.
I think the lack of data here could provide some positive variance if you want to get in on the matchup, meaning that others will be hesitant to bet on Aliev at this price as well. And we know he will wrestle, so therefore a strong score wouldn’t be a surprise.
I do strongly prefer paying up when possible though, and there are intriguing targets priced below Aliev as well so ultimately, I likely won’t end up with much exposure here.
Rock at 7k interests me a little bit. He’ll be a lot taller and longer than Aliev and that perhaps can help him grapple with success.
He just doesn’t look strong defensively to me, so he’s likely to end up on his back. I’m unsure if he can land any takedowns, so the most likely outcome may be that he just gets shut out.
However, if he can land a takedown, suddenly he has back taking and submission ability. He’s only +315 to win ITD but that’s a decent number for this price tag and it matches Aliev’s finishing equity.
I think Rock is an OK target for this price tag. He’s like a boom or bust grappler. He’s only a low-end target and I’m not really excited by him, but I do think there’s some grappling upside in a high-variance situation, and I wouldn’t mind taking a few chances here to save salary.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aliev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Nicolas Dalby vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev
Fight Odds: Izagakhmaev -327, Dalby +267
Odds to end ITD: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Izagakhmaev 9.3k, Dalby 6.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Saygid Izagakhmaev is a Dagestan native who’s been a part of the Nurmagomedov camp over the years. He’s built up a solid resume on the regionals and is now getting the call up to the UFC. Important to note that he hasn’t competed in MMA in 3 years though so he’ll be coming off a healthy layoff – he’s 22-2 as a pro. Nicolas Dalby came into the UFC back in 2015 but was bounced out of the promotion the following year after going 1-2-1. But he returned in 2019 where he actually put on a decent run. But he’s coming off back-to-back losses and recently turned 41 years old – he’s 6-3 in his 2nd run and 23-6-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Izagakhmaev is a sambo guy by base but we have seen a moderate amount of him on the feet as well to also make an assessment.
He plays in that more traditional Russian coast type of game from the mid-range to outside although there’s really nothing about his striking that really stands out.
He’ll switch stances and mix it up a bit but he’s pretty low volume and hasn’t shown to be much of a power threat over the years.
He is coming off a KO win over Aoki back in 2022 but Aoki is also a 39 year old grappler who tends to get KO’d when he loses so it’s not something I take much from – also due to that he hadn’t KO’d anyone since 2016 prior to that.
But given his strong grappling base, not many guys have opened up much on him either where there’s a lot of tit for tat on the feet.
I don’t like that he resorts to shelling when guys to0 come in on him though as it’s not the best visual.
Overall, Izagakhmaev is capable on the feet but it’s hard to project him to run away with fights standing especially at the UFC level.
Dalby fights out of a karate like stance, likes to kick and flurry in with big strikes.
In that, he’s shown some more power components in his recent Cage Warriors stint but hasn’t been the biggest hitter in the aggregate over the course of his career.
Statistically, he lands 4.1 SLpM at 43% and 4.9 DLpM at 35% — semi-underwhelming numbers but we’ve seen some more aggressive components from Dalby in recent years.
Defensively, he eats 3.7 SApM at 52% and 5.7 DApM at 55%.
It’s important to note that in his 14 UFC fights, he’s been dropped 5 times but 3 of those came in his first stint and Ronson was on steroids.
Most recently, he hurt Randy Brown early but ultimately lost the overall exchanges and was officially KO’d for the first time which isn’t a great sign now being 41 years old.
Overall, we’ve seen a better Dalby in comparison to his first UFC run but I still have issues with him defensively at points and he’s repping a negative distance differential of -0.8. It does need to be contextualized that he’s fought some tough guys in there to boot though and all these fights win or lose have been competitive.
How it plays out: I’d anticipate the stand up to be relatively competitive considering both guys tend to prioritize mid-range exchanges, aren’t necessarily volume machines and aren’t huge power guys in vacuum. That said, I’d still lean towards favoring Dalby because he’s more proven in extended exchanges against better strikers and Izagakhmaev isn’t a huge hitter, so I’m less concerned about Dalby’s chin. That said, I feel he’ll need to keep his feet moving and adjust when he pushes tempo.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Izagakhmaev comes from a sambo background and is a pretty physically strong dude at 170.
Obviously, training out of the Khabib camp for as many years as he has, it’s given him some pretty strong looks and bodies to work with.
That said, he’s a pretty strong wrestler where he can have success shooting to both levels although his shots can be telegraphed at times where he can then end up in clinching tie ups for periods.
I more so like his top game better than his actual wrestling to be honest as he’s shown to be solid positionally like most of the Dagestani’s in being able to grind/control far side wrists, supplement GNP and to end up in positions to finish chokes – 12 of his 22 pro wins have come via submission.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on a ton but he did have some struggles with Carlston Harris in his last pro loss where he gave up some reactionary shots and eventually got caught in front choke – in fairness, he realized wrestling success of his own in that fight and Harris is a guy known for having a good front headlock series.
But as alluded to above, he can get stuck against the fence at times as well.
Overall, Izagakhmaev’s ground game will translate to the UFC level and he has some respectable wins regionally although I’m still not willing to put him in the elite tier of ground fighter at the moment.
Dalby is a BJJ brown belt and has shown some willingness to wrestle over his career.
It’s actually been a big key to 3 of Dalby’s UFC wins over Dos Santos (thought he lost personally), over Oliveira (which he also could have lost barring a few different things) and more recently Salikhov.
Statistically, he lands 1 TDs per 15 minutes at 27% — numbers that won’t blow your hair back.
When on top, he’s largely shown to be strong but not much of a sub threat despite his BJJ credentials. But he’s also shown to be effective in the clinch in multiple fights to wear guys down.
Defensively, he can be taken down, stuffing at 59% and has been taken down in most of his fights. Wrestling has been a component in the early rounds he’s dropped in the last three fights.
However, he does make guys work to keep him there, which tires most guys out and Dalby’s won most of these fights even where he’s on the wrong end of numeric TD numbers.
Overall, he’s serviceable offensively at times, a bit shaky defensively from a wrestling perspective as his control ratios are slightly negative but has good defensive BJJ having never been submitted in his pro career.
How it plays out: This is where I’d give the advantage to Izagakhmaev as the better wrestler and submission grappler. We’ve seen Dalby struggle with wrestling in the past and unlike some past opponents, Izagakhmaev doesn’t profile to slow down. While Izagakhmaev will probably struggle to submit a guy like Dalby, I struggle to see Dalby being able to keep him at bay and deal with his chaining attacks to ultimately drop healthy minutes.
For the wrestling reasons mentioned above in addition to a large youth advantage, I’ve got to go with Izagakhmaev for the win. That said, Dalby’s not an “easy” debut as an established veteran who’s played spoiler in numerous outings and isn’t a guy opponents can take lightly.
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On DraftKings, Izagakhmaev is priced up to 9.3k and will be one of many wrestling options this week.
I’d put him into a similar tier as Aliev though, where he’s likely to land takedowns and earn control, but I’m less confident in pure dominance or an early finish. He’s only +125 to win ITD which isn’t terrible, but the fight ultimately is a pick’em to go 15 minutes.
Due to that, it’s tough to consider Izagakhmaev a stand out in this price tier. Tsarukyan and Yakhyaev are such strong targets above him, and there are viable 8k targets as well.
I view him more in the pivot tier where if I can’t pay up further, I’ll shrug my shoulders and plug him in for the wrestling attack, hoping he can earn enough takedowns and control to cross 100 points. It is viable.
The lower owned he is in comparison to the fighters priced above, the better of a pivot he will be. It’s possible he will be outright contrarian as the public will feel safer elsewhere.
I just get nervous here as we’re lacking in data, and Dalby can be tricky. There’s a lot of variance in the matchup for that reason. Izagakhmaev has reasonable upside and is a fine secondary target generally, but I’d have to put him in a tier below some other names in this range.
Dalby is priced at 6.9k and I’m not super excited to roster him.
He is an experienced veteran, and I’m not completely sold on Izagakhmaev. I also am not projecting Dalby to wrestle much, and he’s only +650 to win ITD. So I also question the ceiling here, as it seems like the most likely outcome for Dalby would be a competitive decision.
While that outcome is possible, I’d probably rather invest elsewhere. He could certainly be controlled for a while too and that can kill off his upside.
You can use Dalby as a low-end/dart type of target but I am not planning on investing much myself. I wouldn’t think it’s crazy if he fought competitively here but I’d prefer more win equity on paper and a better chance to reach a ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Izagakhmaev by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Marek Bujlo vs. Denzel Freeman
Fight Odds: Freeman -204, Bujlo +172
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Freeman 8.6k, Bujlo 7.6k
Weight Class: HW
Two more newcomers will enter the Octagon as Marek Bujlo takes on Denzel Freeman.
Bujlo is 6-0 professionally at age 32, and he’s earned three wins by knockout and three by submission.
There isn’t a lot of footage on Bujlo available but basically all of his fights have gone the same. He closes distance immediately, takes them down, and secures the finish. Some have come by ground-and-pound and some have come by submission, including RNC, kimura and ankle lock.
Bujlo is a BJJ black belt and from the glimpses I’ve seen, he looks fine. Obviously this is his strength and he will want the fight on the mat. If he can secure takedowns, he can finish fights.
I’m pretty skeptical of his wrestling to be honest though. He looks like the type who isn’t quite athletic enough to get the fight where he wants with consistency. I also worry that his level of comp on the regional scene has been really bad.
I would have to assume at this point his stand-up doesn’t offer much either. This is honestly just a guessing game but Bujlo could simply be a one-dimensional grappler who will finish fights early or get finished himself.
Denzel Freeman is 6-1 professionally at age 34, earning four wins by knockout and one by submission.
Freeman has an interesting resume. He has a background in wrestling, and was a two-time state placer in high school, and a three-time national qualifier in college. After college, he joined the WWE as a “professional wrestler.” Later in life, Freeman joined military school in an attempt to be an officer and join the Marine Corps.
In 2021, Freeman made his Senior Greco-Roman debut in the US Last Chance Olympic Team Trials Qualifier, where he made the finals but eventually lost.
He picked up his professional MMA career after that where he made a couple appearances in the PFL Challenger Series, and later in LFA where he most recently won the title.
Freeman is a legit athlete. He is thick and powerful. He fights out of Southpaw and likes a karate style stance where he can bounce around the feet. He’s landed some nasty rear kicks which have resulted in devastating knockouts.
He can also wrestle, and I’ve mostly seen him just run over guys with a standard double leg. He can actually grapple OK and take the back. His ground-and-pound is strong too.
His one loss was a split decision in PFL where most people thought he won. It was a competitive stand-up affair for the most part.
I’m interested in Freeman. I don’t think he has a championship ceiling or anything, but he’s a real athlete and well-rounded. I do worry that he’s not good enough in any one area of the game to dominate though.
Still, he can probably take down weak opponents of which there are a lot in this HW division. He can land some big bombs on the feet too and keep up a little bit per minute. He might get hurt occasionally and I think he can lose decisions too.
This matchup is weird because of the lack of data on Bujlo. In theory, Bujlo needs to get this to the ground and submit Freeman, and if he can’t he probably loses.
I will say that Freeman did get taken down in his most recent fight with a double leg against the cage. He scrambled up almost immediately, but that could honestly be enough for a legit grappler to take advantage of. In another division, that results in a back take and potentially a RNC finish.
At HW, I’m less sure. I’m also not sure whether Bujlo is actually any good. My gut feeling here is Freeman is the more physical guy with the wrestling background, and should be able to keep this fight upright. I kind of think he will just hurt Bujlo and knock him out.
But who knows really. I have to bet on the guy who has fought real competition in real organizations, and has gone the distance. Bujlo could still have some early grappling success and he might be able to jump on a neck, but it’s hard to expect much more.
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On DraftKings, I’m willing to play into this fight and hope it ends early.
The fight is currently lined -600 to end inside the distance so on paper there’s a lot of finishing equity.
I am guessing the majority of public ownership will go to Freeman at 8.6k, who now has an ITD line of -135. Naurdiev, Gaziev and Almakhan who are priced directly below him all have odds moving against them, while Freeman is now -204 to win. So he looks like a value standout with finishing equity.
And that’s how I’m going to treat him. There’s no reason to be sure of this fight on either side, but Freeman looks like a strong upside target for the price tag. I think he has early KO equity and that may be the most likely outcome of the matchup.
It is possible he’s chalky which is my only concern, along with general variance, but I’m totally willing to play into it here and bag a bunch of exposure to Freeman, hoping the fight ends early.
Buljo is priced at 7.6k and still could be a quality target whom the public may not be as excited to roster.
My matchup analysis steers me away from him but if he wins, it’s probably an early sub. He at least carries tournament winning upside for his price tag in a matchup that’s very likely to end ITD. Plus he’ll now carry leverage against Freeman directly.
I don’t think Buljo is an amazing play given the matchup questions, but I see the public jamming in a couple of specific fighters this week at 8k and below, meaning lots of others will be overlooked. I really don’t mind trying to be more unique in this range and Bujlo is one opportunity to do that.
Ultimately having exposure to this fight as a whole makes sense. I prefer Freeman for sure but Bujlo is a quality secondary/upside/leverage target who’s worth some exposure too.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Freeman by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)