UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura (3/16/24)

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Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura

Fight Odds: Tuivasa -110, Tybura -104

Odds to Finish: -650

DraftKings Salaries: Tuivasa 8.3k, Tybura 7.9k

Weight Class: HW

No, it’s not the bantamweight championship of the world, but our main event this weekend between Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura should be entertaining for as long as it lasts. 

Especially if you’re a fan of heavyweight slop fests, which I usually am not, but I like Tuivasa as a person and I’ve backed Tybura in a few spots throughout his career as well.

Tuivasa is honestly just hilarious. He introduced the UFC to “shoeys” and that’s now become his staple. Everytime he wins, he’ll immediately run into the crowd to get a random person’s shoe, pour beer into it, and drink it up. He’s publicly declared many times that he likes when people spit into it too. It’s honestly very gross but it feels worth noting.

So yeah, we’re not exactly dealing with the best and brightest of the sport this weekend. And instead we get pure entertainment both during and after the fight, which is sometimes more fun.

Tuivasa’s fighting style is a lot like his personality too. He’s a big guy, but he’s not particularly in shape, and he likes to crash the pocket and throw heavy hands.

He’s won eight times in the UFC, and seven of those wins have come by knockout, including five in the first round. I feel bad but Tuivasa just doesn’t have many other tools for us to expect that trend to continue.

He’s never landed a takedown in any of his 14 UFC bouts, nor does he defend them well at 54 percent. He’s also getting outstruck historically while landing 3.98 sig. strikes per minute, and absorbing 4.98 per minute with a super poor 43 percent defensive rate.

That’s the worst part, that even in striking based fights, Tuivasa is getting largely beaten up. He’s been knocked down six times in his six UFC losses, and I would say his bigger issue is with his defensive wrestling and grappling.

But heavyweight is a crazy division, and Tuivasa throws with fight-ending power. If he can get in close, he can rough you up and score an early knockout. If not, he’s probably getting outstruck himself, getting hurt, getting taken down, and getting another loss on his record.

Marcin Tybura is much less fun. He’s a safer, more consistent fighter who is very experienced in this division.

He’s relied on wrestling for the most part, landing 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he’s a black belt in BJJ. He’s been able to takedown and finish a handful of fighters, or control them and win minutes.

He’s also not a terrible striker, landing 3.55 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.35 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate.

The issue is that he’s been brutally knocked out a lot of times. He was KOd three times in a four-fight span back in 2018-19, and people thought that might be the end of his career.

He came back to win seven of his next nine fights though and put himself in title contention. Most recently though, he was KOd again by Tom Aspinall, who I consider our current HW champion.

Essentially, Marcin Tybura is a decent fighter with well-rounded skills, but he’s going to have trouble against the upper-echelon of this division. He’s best suited as a mid-level neutralizer with some grappling upside. I can see why many people are afraid of the power Tuivasa will throw at him this weekend.

It’s hard to have a confident take here, but my fear in backing Tuivasa is that his win condition is too reliant on an early KO. Granted, that outcome is very possible, but it’s even tougher to trust when he’s getting badly hurt at the same rate that he’s hurting other opponents.

Plus, Tybura clearly has the wrestling upside and the cardio advantage. Tybura has fought five rounds before against a legend in Fabricio Werdum. It’s possible that if this fight even starts round two, Tybura is a comfortable favorite.

I will tentatively lean in Tybura’s direction because of that. I acknowledge there’s incredible risk with that pick though, and if Tuivasa wins, it will likely come early and dominantly.

—

On DraftKings, this is one of the best fights on the entire slate to target, if not the best fight outright.

Tuivasa is priced at 8.3k and has considerable first-round KO equity. He’s -115 to win ITD and +165 to win in round one.

I suppose you could argue that a Tuivasa win over five rounds would be ugly, and slow paced, but I’m honestly unsure if he’s even capable of competing for 25 minutes, let alone producing enough offense to win three rounds. A win for him should come with a KD, a handful of strikes, and a TKO.

At 8.3k, there’s just no reason to avoid him in tournaments. He will be extremely popular but a win at this price, with Tuivasa’s style is very likely to contend for the optimal lineup.

Targeting Tybura at 7.9k would be the smartest way to avoid having to roster a lot of Tuivasa, if you want to go that route. I think I’ll have to project Tybura as a popular option too, but he could be significantly lower owned because his style is more boring, and he was just KOd.

He’s only -104 to win though, and +115 to win ITD, with wrestling equity. You’re much less likely to get a first round finish here at +375, but a mid-round grappling based finish still scores a lot of points.

Even a decision win likely comes with 80-100 strikes and multiple takedowns. Remember that we get five rounds here which is a lot of action. So in any kind of win, I think Tybura is also competing for the optimal.

This fight as a whole is priced anywhere from -650 to -1000 to end inside the distance, which is the best line on this slate by far. Because of the mid-range prices, and despite high public ownerships, it wouldn’t be wrong to be ultra-aggressive in targeting this fight.

I personally may lean toward Tybura because I’m comfortable taking these types of risks, but it won’t be a case where I lean 80/20 in his direction. Splitting this fight dead even would be a fine strategy, as would leaning moderately toward Tuivasa.

You’re simply not going to win or lose tournaments because of this fight alone. Yes, you’ll need the winner, but a large percentage of the field will have the winner. 

With any decent sized portfolio, I think it’s far more important to be able to have lots of live lineups with whoever wins, rather than trying to take a crazy stand one way or the other.

Neither side is a lock for cash games either, as both sides have incredibly low floors and won’t project super well at a base level. Some may choose to stack this fight in cash and lock in the winner, and I could still see Tuivasa rating out OK compared to others at his price tag.

But it wouldn’t be wrong to pivot away from the main event this week, so that you can stack up more comfortable favorites and dogs with better floors.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tybura by Arm-Triangle, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa

Fight Odds: Battle -173, Loosa +149

Odds to Finish: +130

DraftKings Salaries: Battle 8.6k, Loosa 7.6k

Weight Class: 170

The former Ultimate Fighter winner, Bryan Battle has now won five of his six bouts in the UFC and will look to extend his streak against a tough challenger in Ange Loosa.

I’ve generally supported Battle through his early UFC career and I am a fan of the guy, though I do think Loosa has some tools that can give Battle trouble.

Most notably, I worry about Battle’s defensive wrestling. He’s been taken down by three of his recent opponents, and he lost dominantly to Rinat Fakhretdinov, who took him down seven times and controlled him for 14 minutes and 11 seconds of their 15-minute fight.

Battle is tall and long for the division, which is a positive in some aspects, but oftentimes those fighters will be susceptible to wrestlers as well. Battle is only defending takedowns at 45 percent and I’m pretty confident good wrestlers will be able to control him moving forward.

However, Battle is not lost on the mat, and he’s actually a very competent submission grappler. He actually holds five of his 10 pro wins by submission, and he’s more than capable of wrapping up a neck.

Battle is also very tough, with good cardio, which means that even if he starts slow, he can come from behind and win. He’s pulled off a couple of comeback submission losses in the UFC already, and he had one on The Ultimate Fighter against Andre Petroski as well.

And when Battle gets to strike at distance, he’s competent, and dangerous at times. His long limbs give him a reach advantage over most opponents and he can also throw strikes at a pretty high volume.

Overall, I consider Battle a quality fighter who carries some strong X factors in his game, but his subpar wrestling will probably give him more issues as he takes steps up in the division.

Ange Loosa actually lost to Jack Della Maddalena on the Contender Series by decision, but he is one of many fighters to test Maddalena on the mat, and he had Jack in a pretty deep choke in that fight. Like always, Maddalena survived, and came back to win the decision.

Since then, the UFC signed Loosa to a deal and saw him lose his debut fight by decision against Mounir Lazzez. But he’s really turned it around in his last two fights, winning both by decision against AJ Fletcher and Rhys McKee.

I’ve been really impressed with parts of Loosa’s game, specifically in his ability to produce a lot of offense over three rounds. I just love guys who do stuff.

Loosa has done a lot of stuff lately, to the tune of 129 sig. strikes and two takedowns in the win over Fletcher, and 98 sig. strikes and six takedowns in the win against McKee.

That kind of pace and ability to mix in wrestling gives me some confidence that Loosa can continue to win rounds at this level.

The counter argument is twofold. Neither Fletcher nor McKee are great talents, so beating them and producing lots of offense may be a trap in that Loosa is less likely to find the same result against better competition.

The scarier part is that against both Fletcher and McKee, Loosa had stretches where he was badly beaten up, and nearly knocked out. He has never been finished by knockout or submission in 13 pro fights, and I respect his ability to fight through adversity, but he honestly barely escaped losses in both.

Against Fletcher, it came in round two, and against McKee, it came in round three. It’s led to some poor overall metrics with Loosa absorbing 6.88 significant strikes per minute.

My guess is that it’s an issue tied to both his cardio and striking defense. He is a physical fighter, and fighting at a high pace makes you tired. That’s understandable. I am not completely convinced that better opponents can’t just take the momentum Loosa concedes, and use it to finish him completely.

That’s sort of where this matchup gets spicy because Battle projects as the type of fighter to do exactly.

Not only does Battle have a couple of first-minute knockouts in the UFC, but his length and submission game give him the ability to finish fights on the mat and in scrambles.

If Loosa is very tired at any point in this fight, I think it’s somewhat likely that Battle can pour on the strikes, and knock him out. Or, Loosa will be forced to shoot takedowns out of desperation, and get himself submitted.

Until that happens though, it is possible Loosa is winning. He’s averaging 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and it’s reasonable to believe he can get on top of Battle early. I think his best chance to win this fight is to wrestle early and try to control Battle.

He’s also landing 6.32 sig. strikes per minute himself though, so he should be able to keep up with the pace and power of Battle early. He might just win two rounds, get a little tired and lose the third round, but still win the fight overall.

Battle in a pure distance fight will project a lot better though. He lands 8.4 sig. strikes per minute at distance while absorbing 4.5 per minute. Loosa has a negative 1.9 ratio at distance. Battle is also three inches taller and three inches longer which should help.

In total, this should be a fun scrap with two middle of the pack guys who I enjoy watching. I trust Battle’s cardio and finishing ability much more than Loosa’s, but Loosa has been historically tough to finish. Loosa has the pacing and wrestling to win rounds, but Battle is a step up in competition for him and he’ll be ready to pounce if ever smells fatigue.

—

On DraftKings, both sides are viable but given some uncertainty with both sides, I’m unsure that the public will choose to aggressively roster either fighter.

Battle is priced at 8.6k, which is affordable, and his DraftKings history is pretty strong. He’s scored 103, 126, 128, 87 and 97 in his UFC wins, albeit the biggest scores have come in first-minute KOs.

Still, it shows Battle has upside due to his finishing ability. He won’t rate out as well here though because Loosa has never been finished, and so Battle is only +195 to win ITD. I’m not sure many will look at this matchup, look at Battle’s metrics, and want to jam him in.

Battle seems to have a strong floor and ceiling in a win though, and I don’t expect that to change here. The worst possible situation would be if Loosa dominates early, and Battle comes from behind to win, but he still arguably finds finishing points with that result.

Loosa will fight at a high pace here, so for Battle to win, he’ll likely need to match it, exceed it, or just finish the fight. There are enough exchanges projected that if Battle wins, I’m expecting a decent score.

Will it be optimal is the tougher question. At 8.6k, I consider Battle a solid secondary target. There are fighters with better finishing equity on this slate, or more wrestling equity, or simply better matchups.

However, Battle is priced affordably, with enough finishing equity in a high paced fight that he could still find his way to 90+ points and potentially contend for the optimal lineup. I’m willing to mix him in around the field percentage personally.

Loosa at 7.6k interests me because if he wins, even if it’s by decision, he should put up a strong score.

He’s totaled 124 and 115 in his two decision wins which are incredible. It’s possible people see that, and a tight betting line, and play him frequently at 7.6k. He shouldn’t be outright chalk though.

What I like about Loosa again is the projected pace of the fight, and his previous willingness to produce a lot of offense. Plus, his win condition resides partly in his wrestling equity, against an opponent who has given up multiple takedowns to several other fighters.

If Loosa wins by decision, I’d expect 80+ significant strikes and/or a few takedowns, which would be enough to put him in optimal contention as well. His finishing equity sucks at +480 to win ITD, and maybe that’s a reason to be cautious as a whole, but I like Loosa’s combination of pricing, win equity, pace and wrestling equity.

He’s a solid secondary target with some upside and a theoretically decent floor.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Battle by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)

Ovince Saint Preux vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu

Fight Odds: Nzechukwu -680, Saint Preux +476

Odds to Finish: -400

DraftKings Salaries: Nzechukwu 9.4k, Nzechukwu 6.8k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Despite a recent setback, Kennedy Nzechukwu will get his chance to showcase new developments as he takes on divisional veteran Ovince Saint Preux this weekend.

Nzechukwu has had some ups and downs through 10 UFC fights, and although he came into the promotion fairly green, he’s certainly improved and has become a dangerous out against most opponents.

Although he prefers to stand and trade, I remember being pleasantly surprised by the wrestling development of Nzechukwu in his fight against Karl Roberson in 2022. Kennedy had never landed a takedown in his career prior to that bout, but he was able to land five takedowns against Roberson and just destroyed him on the mat. 

I know Roberson is not a good defensive grappler, but I actually thought Kennedy showed decent control and usage of his physicality on the mat. It showcased at least another potential path to victory for him going forward, especially against below-average grapplers.

Kennedy has always shown decent defensive grappling as well and he defends takedowns at 80 percent. He still is somewhat green and learning, but he honestly has decent TDD and tries hard to scramble up. He isn’t easy to hold down and I generally think he can stop average grapplers in this weight class.

Usually Kennedy likes to strike in his fights though. He lands 4.86 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.27 in return. I hate that he doesn’t use his reach to his advantage more though. 

He is 6’5” with an 83” reach which is ridiculously long. However, he doesn’t really use it to control range or anything. He kind of just tries to stay aggressive and overwhelm his opponents with pace. I wish he was a little more technical and used his reach a bit better. He is a bit hittable because of that and only defends strikes at 51 percent. 

Furthermore, Kennedy was knocked dead early in his recent fight against Dustin Jacoby. He was also knocked out early a couple of years back by Da Woon Jung, and he was even hurt by Devin Clark, who isn’t known to be a power threat. Given that he is hittable and has been knocked out twice, I do worry a bit about his durability moving forward, and it bakes some unknown variance into his fights.

Kennedy’s style can still work though and I have bet on him a couple of times recently. I think he is just a physical guy who has a knack for finding his target. He is still a bit hittable and has been knocked out before, but I think he is generally a tough guy to deal with.

Nzechukwu will be taking on UFC veteran Ovince Saint Preux. I honestly didn’t know OSP was still fighting. He was last seen in the cage a year ago getting knocked out by Philipe Lins.

It is tough to get excited by OSP these days. He is nearly 41 years old and has been knocked out in 3 of his last 4 fights. Durability is an obvious concern going forward with him. His only win in the last 4 years came against the ghost of Shogun Rua where he won a measly split decision and only landed 62 significant strikes.

I don’t like OSP’s striking much. He lands 2.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.14 in return. He defends strikes at 46 percent which isn’t good either. He just isn’t reliable to land much volume. However, he is still a big strong guy and capable of landing knockouts here and there.

OSP has a lot of wins by submission too, generally by the Von Flue choke. I still don’t consider him a great grappler or takedown artist though. He lands 1.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about three takedowns per fight. He is an okay wrestler and capable of using his size to bully his way into a submission. Other than that, I don’t consider him a great grappler.

As far as this matchup, I just have to go with the younger, fresher fighter in Nzechukwu here. He just throws so many more strikes than OSP and likely has enough takedown defense and scrambling ability to minimize the grappling upside of OSP. My guess is Kennedy keeps this standing and simply lands more strikes than OSP, which will probably result in a finish.

OSP is still dangerous early though, and Kennedy has been knocked out recently. OSP could land something big, and it wouldn’t shock me if OSP landed takedowns early and threatened with submissions.

I still think Kennedy is the better round winner though, and the fighter more likely to land a barrage of strikes throughout the contest, so I will go with Kennedy to get the win.

—

On DraftKings, Nzechukwu is the most expensive fighter on this slate at 9.4k which definitely makes me uncomfortable.

This slate isn’t filled with the same level of talent as we saw at UFC 299, and Nzechukwu is not a fighter typically deserving of betting lines this wide.

However, he has a somewhat clear path to a knockout, and that outcome would give him a strong score that would potentially compete for the optimal lineup. He’s actually -315 to win ITD which is fantastic, and OSP has been knocked out in several of his recent losses.

While I don’t view Nzechukwu as an obvious smash talent on paper, this top range isn’t very strong, and I think most people will be grossed out by playing the majority of the 8.8k-9.1k tier. That might just lead everyone to playing Nzechukwu or Davis, assuming salary is available.

Especially given the metrics here, and OSPs recent losses, Nzechukwu could be the outright chalk in the top range. That will definitely make me nervous.

Still, he’s going to rate out as an elite target given his strong moneyline north of -600, the strong ITD, and OSP’s recent form. It’s very reasonable to expect a KO win from Nzechukwu and my guess is he will deliver.

So, feel free to play as much Nzechukwu as you like. When I have the salary available in tournaments, I will consider him for sure.

The downside is what comes with all expensive plays, and I feel the need to reiterate those concerns on a weekly basis. Nzechukwu’s last three finishes have scored 105, 92 and 106 on DraftKings. He might look great, win by KO, put up a 105, and still be outscored by someone else in this range or be priced out of the optimal. Nothing is certain.

I do also like Davis at 9.2k, and I see upside with a couple of other options too, so I’d personally rather spread out my exposure here. I will still label Nzechukwu as a top tournament target overall, but the price and ownership caveats are enough to limit my exposure.

OSP at 6.8k is a boom or bust, leverage punt who I am not extremely interested in.

I don’t love his game or style in that he doesn’t throw many strikes, isn’t durable, and doesn’t wrestle super well. His submission game is only good enough to beat the worst competition, which to be fair makes up a lot of this division.

The upside is that if OSP wins, it’s probably in the first round. His ITD line is only +750 but we’ve seen Nzechukwu hurt a few times. It wouldn’t be that shocking if OSP landed a big strike or an early takedown.

And he’ll be low owned, and will carry significant leverage against Nzechukwu. If you have a large portfolio to work with and this kind of fighter interests you, playing a small percentage of him in tournaments is totally fine.

With a more limited portfolio, OSP will be one of the underdogs I cross off first, simply due to his non-existent floor and lack of win equity on the betting line.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nzechukwu by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian

Fight Odds: Dulgarian -185, Rodriguez +158

Odds to Finish: -130

DraftKings Salaries: Dulgarian 8.5k, Rodriguez 7.7k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I am super excited for this matchup between Isaac Dulgarian and Christian Rodriguez, who are both interesting prospects in the featherweight division.

Dulgarian will be returning after an impressive beating of Francis Marshall a few months back in his UFC debut. I was really intrigued by Dulgarian going into the fight given his advanced wrestling background, and he ended up looking great, taking Marshall down easily and beating the pulp out of him. 

It resulted in an impressive ground-and-pound finish toward the end of round one. He is now 6-0 professionally and 10-0 if you include amateurs.

Dulgarian comes from an impressive wrestling pedigree and that will be his primary skill set. He is one of the best high school wrestlers in the state of Kansas’ history, where he was a 3-time state champion and holds the record for most career wins and takedowns landed. 

He had over 1,100 takedowns in his high school career and the second closest to him was 700. So yeah, this guy can wrestle his ass off. He was also a Fargo all-American in both freestyle and greco, which is the most prestigious national high school wrestling tournament that there is.

Dulgarian then wrestled at a Division 2 school and took 2nd in the national tournament as a true Freshman, which is very impressive. Given his high school credentials, I am surprised Dulgarian didn’t wrestle at a Division 1 school, as he was clearly capable. 

My guess is he didn’t have the grades to go Division 1, which is common (e.g., Jon Jones). Furthermore, I couldn’t find any history on Dulgarian’s collegiate wrestling career after his Freshman year. My guess is he dropped out of school and pursued MMA, but I am not sure.

Regardless of what happened in the rest of his wrestling career, Dulgarian is surely a good wrestler and his tape shows it. Almost all of his fights look the exact same. He takes his opponents down with complete ease and quickly finishes them in the first round.

Other than Marshall, Dulgarian’s opponents haven’t been good though, so it is hard to get a real read on Dulgarian’s game. I have no idea if he can strike in extended exchanges, if he can take a punch, if he will gas out, or what he will look like if he gets taken down himself. I really don’t know. 

I almost always think that guys who have never fought more than a round will turn out to have moderate or major holes in their games.

However, I do have some hope for Dulgarian. His wrestling credentials are as legit as they come. That alone makes me pretty confident that he is UFC level, which I think he proved against Marshall. 

My guess is he can just dominate the low tiers of this UFC division with his wrestling alone. I also tend to think that his cardio will be fine. He is a very credentialed wrestler and having that many takedowns means he wrestled at a high pace and always had success doing it. My guess is he will probably be flawed defensively on the feet, but he’s potentially capable of some offensive explosions as he is an athletic guy.

These are all guesses though, and I think it’s important to note that we do not know exactly how good Dulgarian actually is. For now, I will assume he can beat low-tier UFC fighters without much issue because of his wrestling pedigree, and I will collect more data as he continues to tally more fights. 

Dulgarian should get tested here against Christian Rodriguez, which is partially why I am excited. I honestly think Rodriguez is a perfect test because he can fight and resist in all areas, and has cardio to go 15 minutes as well.

I just consider Rodriguez a well-rounded scrapper who is capable of neutralizing opponents in all areas. He is a pretty decent striker, landing 3.51 significant strikes per minute, while he absorbs 2.46 per minute in return and defends strikes at 58 percent. 

I think his striking is totally fine. He has decent boxing and can mix in some kicks as well. He also defends strikes to his head well statistically.

Rodriguez is also a capable grappler and he resists attacks pretty well. He lands 1.40 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 70 percent. 

Rodriguez isn’t perfect as a defensive grappler though. He can be taken down here and there, and he surrendered six takedowns to Jonathan Pearce in 2022. However, he does defend takedowns adequately, and he is super seasoned at reversing positions on the mat and making his opponents consistently work. He is honestly just super difficult to hold down and contain on the mat.

Rodriguez also has really strong cardio, and he even won that third round against Pearce. He also gave up a few takedowns to Raul Rosas Jr., who is another legit prospect, but survived the early rush and outlasted him to win a decision.

Rodriguez isn’t elite, but he’s good enough offensively and defensively to tire opponents out and beat them down the stretch.

That’s why I think he may be a difficult matchup for Dulgarian. This entire fight is a guessing game. We have no idea what Dulgarian will look like in striking exchanges or whether his cardio will be tested in an extended fight. However, we do know Rodriguez can fight competently everywhere, and has the cardio and grappling resistance to potentially wear down Dulgarian if Dulgarian ever gets tired .

In terms of how the fight plays out, I am just not so sure Dulgarian runs out there and gets an early finish. So we may see an extended fight where Dulgarian gets tested and ends up having holes. I honestly want to pick Rodriguez for that reason. I think Rodriguez could just defend and resist enough and drag this in deep waters where he is actually proven.

That is a complete guess though. I am pretty confident Dulgarian can land takedowns somewhat easily early in the fight, and that just may result in domination, or it could carry him to a decision win too. Dulgarian may just be way better as a wrestler and crush Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is tough though, and I think Dulgarian will get tested here much more than he has in any of his professional fights. This is generally a spot where proven guys get underrated so I will pick Rodriguez for the upset.

—

On DraftKings, I still consider Dulgarian the primary target at 8.5k, given his incredible upside and fighting style.

He’s coming off a debut win that scored 122 points (as a dog by the way who we were stoked to back), and now as a climbing -185 favorite, I think we could see pretty large ownerships on Dulgarian this week.

Simply put, the expectation for Dulgarian in a win is that he either lands takedowns quickly and gets a finish, or has to wrestle extensively for three rounds. Either method of victory would likely result in a score competitive with the optimal lineup at 8.5k.

I love Tim’s write-ups though because he will always give the fighters a fair shake, and it’s important to point out potential flaws and weaknesses. We really do not have the answers as to how Dulgarian looks in an extended fight, and generally speaking, the answers we receive aren’t always great.

So I would not consider this a lock, or a super confident pick at all. Rodriguez kind of thrives in this style of fight. He’s built to outlast opponents.

However, Dulgarian’s actual technique is too much for me to pass on for DraftKings purposes. Rodriguez gives up a lot of takedowns early and I think it’s pretty likely that Dulgarian has dominant stretches in the first round. That could easily result in another smash score, and I don’t want to miss out.

Dulgarian is +160 to win ITD which is decent, but again, we don’t necessarily need the finish. What’s most important is that he’s got the style to score very well, and is only priced at 8.5k. You need exposure here.

How much exposure is a different question, because I will likely be projecting Dulgarian to be chalky this week. If that concerns you, you don’t have to match the field, but I think the better course of action is probably just to add on leverage with some Rodriguez at 7.7k.

Unlike Dulgarian, I’m not expecting Rodriguez to be super chalky. He’s not a fantastic finishing threat in any area, and he’s probably at a clear wrestling disadvantage here. He’s scored 96, 71 and 96 in three decision wins in the UFC, and he’s only +310 to win ITD in this matchup.

My concerns with Rodriguez match those of Blaydes and Lins last week, who I preferred in extended fights, though they could in theory lack the same DK ceiling as their opponents.

It’s possible that a win for Rodriguez scores no points in round one, and therefore he simply won’t be able to reach a ceiling in a decision win. For that reason, I wouldn’t consider Rodriguez a must. He is not guaranteed to have any success.

However, the leverage is certainly intriguing. IF Dulgarian does tire out, he might not be able to defend himself, and that could lead to a finish. If he was priced differently or facing a less chalky opponent, I may not be as interested, but I think this is a spot I will want to cover as well.

Rodriguez is still only a secondary target who doesn’t rate out extremely well from a floor or ceiling perspective, but his upside is correlated to the failure of Dulgarian, which is still semi-valuable. I’ll mix him in to be safe, and will likely continue to do so with Dulgarian’s opponents until we have answers for his questions.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dulgarian by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Pannie Kianzad vs. Macy Chiasson

Fight Odds: Chiasson -230, Kianzad +193

Odds to Finish: +250

DraftKings Salaries: Chiasson 9k, Kianzad 7.2k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a random rematch here between Macy Chiasson and Pannie Kianzad that I don’t expect to be integral to this slate. 

These two fought back in 2018 in the The Ultimate Fighter finale where Chiasson was able to hurt Kianzad and have some grappling success. Eventually Chiasson got the back and won by RNC.

Chiasson has a few things going for her but she’s not the most trustworthy fighter in the bantamweight division. She generally doesn’t strike from distance that much, and instead she clinches up where she is more comfortable winning fights with position against the cage, or with takedowns and top position.

Chiasson lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.61. Her numbers are skewed though because she lands a lot of ground-and-pound, but her upside at range is minimal.

Chiasson just seems uncomfortable at distance to me. She was getting pieced up by Raquel Pennington and then was eventually finished, and even Shanna Young oustruck her from distance. Chiasson usually strikes from distance for moments, and then the fight becomes a clinching affair and a grappling match that Chiasson usually wins because of her physicality. I do think Chiasson has power though and is capable of hurting girls at range.

My issue with Chiasson is that she doesn’t have the best wrestling either. She does land 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 64 percent. Those are decent metrics. However, she just isn’t the best technical wrestler, and I don’t totally trust her to land takedowns on anyone with competent takedown defense.

Chiasson is just big though and she has landed 9 takedowns in her last two fights. So even though her takedowns look weird and awkward, she is a big girl and that assists her in landing takedowns. Once on top, she is capable of using her size and getting the back, or beating girls up and threatening with submissions.

Chiasson will be taking on Pannie Kianzad. Kianzad thrives as a boxer. She has crisp boxing and she actually hits pretty hard for a woman. I don’t expect her to knock many fighters out considering she has never even landed a knockdown in nine UFC fights, but her strikes tend to land hard and look impactful to the judges. 

Kianzad lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.75 in return, while defending strikes at 53 percent. So she is a bit hittable and isn’t safe to easily win fights on the feet against competent strikers. She is still very competent offensively though and has solid volume.

Kianzad doesn’t wrestle much. She lands 0.35 takedowns per 15 minutes, so you can’t expect her to land takedowns. She does defend takedowns at 71 percent, so she is capable of keeping the fight standing where she has the best chance to win. However, she can be taken down here and there and held down for stretches. So she is at least a bit of a liability to lose a round if she happens to be taken down.

That’s why I am going to pick Chiasson to win again here. I just think Chiasson has more grappling upside of the two, and that could be the difference. I mean Chiasson just fought Norma Dumont and Irene Aldana who are good fighters and hard to take down, and Chiasson somehow managed nine combined takedowns against those two. 

So my guess is Chiasson does land a few takedowns here again which could result in a finish, or it could help her clearly win a round or two. I think she has a reasonably high ceiling in this matchup because of her wrestling equity, and a higher chance to separate herself from Kianzad.

Kianzad still does have decent takedown defense on paper, and is a battle tested fighter. She is also probably the better distance striker in this matchup. If these girls box for extended minutes, Kianzad may just be better and win the fight.

However, Chiasson is just the bigger girl with grappling upside. Even if Chiasson can’t land takedowns, she will probably clinch Kianzad up and avoid striking engagements altogether, so I will go with Chiasson to get the win here.

—

On DraftKings, although I don’t expect many people to be excited by either side of this matchup, I do think Chiasson is in play as a contrarian option.

She’s priced at 9k, which is very expensive for a fighter like Chiasson, who isn’t particularly great at anything and has lost to some mediocre or worse opponents. I honestly don’t have any real faith in Chiasson as a talent.

But, grappling scores well on DraftKings and if Chiasson wins, I do expect it to come from takedowns, and control. Surprisingly, Chiasson has also shown a really strong ceiling in her wins too, with scores of 106, 75, 108, 111, 111, and 102. The recent 106 and 108 scores came in decisions as well, which is good.

I think it comes from her willingness to rack up non-significant strikes from the clinch and on the mat. She landed nearly 100 non-sig strikes against Dumont and another 70 or so against Young, and those add up.

She’ll still need some level of grappling domination to reach a ceiling, but that’s within the range of outcomes. Also, if she’s able to land takedowns and control, it could realistically lead to a finish. She’s only +285 to win ITD but she’s already submitted Kianzad once, so it’s hard to rule that outcome out.

I highly doubt anyone is going to prioritize Chiasson outright, and I don’t particularly want to myself. But I do think it’s smart to invest in fighters with grappling equity, which Chiasson has.

Especially if you can’t pay up further or want one spot to be a little bit different, mixing Chiasson in as a secondary option makes sense in tournaments and I will have some of her.

Kianzad at 7.2k doesn’t really interest me. On paper, she rates out best as a floor option with the fight projected to go the distance at -325.

In 15 minutes, it’s possible Kianzad lands 60-80 sig. strikes. I just don’t love that she has nearly zero wrestling equity, and also Chiasson’s style will make it hard to produce offense. Kianzad losing and only landing 20 strikes is in play as well.

Plus, she’s +900 to win ITD. Yeah, she’ll be very low owned but there’s not an extremely good case to play much of Kianzad this weekend.

I’d rather chase fighters with better win conditions, or better win equity, finishing equity, or wrestling equity.

I still think it’s possible Kianzad defends some takedowns and wins a close, boxing based decision but I’m still not in love with her fantasy ceiling and won’t consider much DraftKings exposure to her this weekend.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chiasson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bryan Barberena

Fight Odds: Meerschaert -238, Barberena +199

Odds to Finish: -175

DraftKings Salaries: Meerschaert 9.1k, Barberena 7.1k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an absolute shitshow of a middleweight fight here between two aging fighters in Gerald Meerschaert and Bryan Barberena.

Meerschaert is a goofy, opportunistic fighter, and that is the best way to describe him. I don’t really trust him to win rounds by outstriking his opponents on the feet, as he lands 3.30 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.50 in return. He is tough and willing to throw down, but he’s also been KOd four times in the UFC and his durability isn’t particularly good.

He actually stunned Makhmud Muradov on the feet quite often though, which was probably Meerschaert’s best striking performance to date. He still got hit in that fight plenty himself.

I also don’t trust Meerschaert to win with top control grappling all that often. He does land 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is solid, but he only defends takedowns at 34 percent and is never really winning fights with top control. So it’s difficult to project him to win rounds at a high rate, and I am not very comfortable with his fighting process.

Meerschaert is very opportunistic though. I wouldn’t consider him to be a very hard hitter, although he has hurt a couple of people on the feet in his UFC career. He is a pretty dangerous submission grappler and if he gets your back on the mat, he can absolutely submit UFC level fighters. He also has a good guillotine choke.

Still, my issue with Meerschaert is that I don’t fully trust his process of getting fighters with good takedown defense to the mat. He can get put in really bad positions while trying to scramble or while trying to take the back. The guy will literally give up his back, hoping he can reverse position and get a dominant grappling position. 

That might work on tired fighters or lower level guys, but against competent grapplers that is an awful idea. Meerschaert found that out the hard way against Hermansson who murdered him with ground-and-pound from back mount.

Meerschaert will be taking on Bryan Barberena. Barberena is essentially a high-volume striker who fights at a stupidly high pace. He lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.74 in return. 

He isn’t very skilled or technical and only defends strikes at 44 percent though. He is simply super hittable. However, Barberna thrives with striking pace, and he can overwhelm opponents. He also has some sneaky power at times too.

Barberena hardly wrestles at all, and only lands 0.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, so I don’t consider him an offensive wrestling threat. 

Barberena’s weakness is his defensive wrestling. He defends takedowns at 49 percent and he can concede many takedowns. Matt Brown took him down five times in 2022 which was very concerning. Jason Witt also took him down eight times. 

Barberena can work up a bit, and did work up in those fights. However, he can still concede control and he was held down for a little more than five minutes in both of those fights.

Barberena also easily got taken down and submitted by RDA and Gunnar Nelson. In his most recent matchup, he was taken down a whopping 13 times by Makhmud Muradov.

I think it is hard to look at those fights and not think Meerschaert has grappling upside here. Meerschaert is the bigger guy and the superior submission grappler. I definitely think he can land takedowns and it may result in a submission. It seems very realistic and favoring Meerschaert for that reason is perfectly fair. I will also pick him because of his clear submission upside.

Meerschaert is just very hard to trust though. He is not a great takedown artist, and he is not easily holding guys down. So that means if he is not getting a submission right away, he may just be losing on the feet or putting himself in unsafe positions where he could definitely get hurt. I honestly may just favor Barberena on the feet outright given his durability and volume upside.

So be cautious of Meerschaert from a betting perspective because I think his style is hard to trust as a big favorite. I do think this is a decent matchup for him though where his submission upside will be there, so I will pick him to win.

—

On DraftKings, I have mixed feelings about targeting Meerschaert at 9.1k, and he’s usually the type I’d prefer to play as a big dog.

He can always flip the momentum and jump on a submission but he is far from the type of fighter I like to trust. Even as a pure wrestler, he cannot defend takedowns at all and he’ll give up terrible positions before ever finding good ones of his own. He’s also been brutally knocked out in round one several times.

Still, it’s all about the matchup, and his opponent this week cannot defend takedowns. I don’t think we can project Meerschaert to match an 8-10 takedown past like some of Barberena’s past opponents, but even 2-3 takedowns could lead to dominant positions and a submission, and that could be enough.

It’s also the only realistic way for Meerschaert to pay off, and it still might be enough as he doesn’t land many strikes in any area.

Meerschaert is -125 to win ITD which is pretty strong, and I guess he’s a worthwhile target this week. He has only topped 102 points one time in his entire career though, and I have some concerns that his ceiling won’t be enough to beat out the rest of this top range.

Ownership is tricky too. He rates out well and has a great matchup, but his box score isn’t incredible and people won’t easily want to trust him. I likely will project him highly enough to exclude him from contrarian status, but I’d be shocked if he was outright chalk.

For me, he’ll just be a mix-in. The deeper we look into this top range this week, the harder it gets.

The fighters priced above Meerschaert are safer and far more talented. There are a couple of interesting contrarian options priced below him. Meerschaert isn’t a priority in that sense, but this is as good of a matchup as he can ask for and his style can score well in the right situation.

I’m willing to mix him in but probably won’t aim to take a major stand against the field.

Barberena at 7.1k won’t rate out well on paper, and won’t carry any floor, but he may also have legitimate first-round KO upside.

It’s more narrative based I suppose, but Meerschaert is very poor defensively and I’ve seen him KOd early too many times to be confident that outcome won’t happen again in the future.

Barberena is a tough SOB too. He’s had some insane wars in his career, and he’s known for being able to withstand damage. In a pure striking fight, Barberena probably wins and might win by KO.

He’s only +525 to win ITD though, so he won’t rate out well and he will likely be very low owned.

At 7.1k, it’s not a major risk to mix Barberena into your lineups if you have a large enough portfolio. He will also carry some leverage against Meerschaert.

But there are several better floor options in this range, and it’s still preferable to pay up further for more win equity if you can. With that said, Barberena is a fine low-end target and I wouldn’t mind a sprinkle of him if you have the room.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Meerschaert by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

UNDERCARD

Natan Levy vs. Mike Davis

Fight Odds: Davis -478, Levy +360

Odds to Finish: +145

DraftKings Salaries: Davis 9.2k, Levy 7k

Weight Class: 155

One of my most anticipated fights on the slate from a pure entertainment standpoint, I’m stoked to see Mike Davis back in the Octagon against Natan Levy after another extended layoff.

Davis is an interesting contender in this stacked lightweight division, and although he may not have pure championship pedigree, I love his well-rounded skills and I consider him a very dangerous out for most.

He came into the UFC off a loss on the Contender Series to Sodiq Yusuff, but that was one of the best fights we’ve ever seen on that show, and Davis clearly deserved to be here. He then fought Gilbert Burns in his UFC debut and lost, but Burns has fought for the title and is super dangerous on the ground.

Since then, Davis has rattled off three consecutive wins, with his most recent victory over “Slava Klaus” Borshchev being the best of his career. He dominated Borshchev on the ground, landing nine takedowns and smashing him from top position.

I loved that performance because it was the correct game plan for Davis to follow. He comes from a wrestling background but is a very legit boxer as well, and it’s rare to see people execute game plans to follow their skills optimally. Borshchev is an elite kickboxer though, so there was no reason for Davis to play around on the feet where he could potentially get hurt.

In the past, we’ve seen Davis go to war on the feet though, like he did against Yusuff and Mason Jones. He’s fully capable, and lands an impressive 5.83 sig. strikes per minute.

His question marks come both with fight inactivity, and simply lacking that one elite skill that can clearly separate him from others.

Davis only competed twice since 2019, and he’s coming off another 1.5 year layoff on Saturday. He’s been injured a bunch. It does scare me a little bit and you never know when a guy will be rusty off an extended absence.

It hasn’t affected his in-fight performance but he’s passed 30 years old now, and I think this is the time for him to make a run if he’s ever going to.

Skill wise, he just probably won’t be good enough to easily take down great competition, or easily submit them with his purple belt in BJJ (Order goes white-blue-purple-brown-black and purple-brown-black are the best ones).

I still consider him a super legit and well-rounded fighter offensively, and he can beat many opponents in this division.

Natan Levy is arguably a Mike Davis “light” in some capacities. He too can produce a lot of offense, and we’ve seen him mix it up as a wrestler.

He’s landing 4.01 sig. strikes per minute, and 5.37 takedowns per 15 minutes. He just landed six takedowns against Valdez and he landed nine against Breeden in the fight prior.

However, context is important, as are each fighter’s flaws, and Levy doesn’t stack up nearly as well there.

Levy comes from a karate background where he is a black belt, and he tends to primarily kick when the fight takes place on the feet. He can throw hard, and throw some cool spinning attacks, but I don’t think his style is the most consistent.

He’s arguably a better grappler than he is a striker, and his takedown rate is very impressive. However, he’s not a super technical wrestler and I think he will struggle mightily as he moves up in competition.

One red flag is that Levy has been taken down a bunch of times himself in the UFC. Raca Garica took him down seven times and Mike Breeden took him down three times. Mike Davis is arguably multiple steps above those fighters skill wise.

Levy also only earned 3 minutes and 39 seconds of control time from his nine takedowns landed against Breeden. He just hasn’t proven strong enough to keep opponents down or submit them, and that’s a concern. He can also slow down in fights.

Overall, this is definitely a fight where I favor Mike Davis and I think he can probably win this fight in pure boxing range, or by wrestling and earning top control.

However, Davis is not an elite finisher himself, and the lack of recent competition makes me a little nervous against an opponent who also puts up a lot of offense. It is quite possible that this fight is competitive for multiple rounds.

I could see Levy slowing down the pace a little bit, and kicking from distance to limit big shots absorbed. Maybe he can land a takedown or two, or maybe Davis doesn’t choose to wrestle at all. Maybe a random strike hurts Davis.

Those are the best cases I can make for Levy. Otherwise, I think Davis is simply more power and more efficient as a striker. He may be far more dangerous and may be able to hurt Levy if he gets on the inside. He has enough pure volume to win rounds.

Davis should be able to land takedowns if he wants. Levy just hasn’t done well defending them, and now Davis has proven he can chase takedowns when the path makes sense. It makes sense to add them in here too.

I’m unsure if Davis would smash from top position unless Levy is tired, but it would still be enough to give him that additional path to victory and add on win equity throughout the fight.

—

On DraftKings, Davis is pretty expensive at 9.2k but if you played last week, you saw the scoring potential when fighters rack up offense and takedowns.

That’s the essential upside I see with Davis this week. He just proved to me he can land nine takedowns, and although I don’t expect that many, perhaps 4-5 is in play. He can also throw strikes in volume and the combination should give him a strong floor and ceiling in a win. His last decision scored 123 points, which would be awesome this week.

If he does produce a lot of volume, and is able to hurt Levy in the process and score a TKO, he will likely smash. He’s +145 to win ITD though so that outcome is far from guaranteed, but it’s possible.

If Davis does not choose to wrestle, his floor is far less certain, and his ceiling is extremely questionable as well.

I don’t expect Davis to be super chalky, but I don’t think there are many stand out options this week, and it’s possible people pay up to Davis for his moneyline safety. He’ll definitely get some love, but not enough to scare me away, especially with the late addition of Moises.

Overall, Davis is a very strong floor/ceiling option, but his lack of finishing equity is potentially enough to make others a priority ahead of him. He’s also expensive enough to where he may need more than a simple, strong performance to compete with the optimal. I’d like mild-moderate exposure to Davis in theory but I wouldn’t consider him a lock button and it would be fine to prioritize the fighters priced above him.

Levy at 7.2k is in consideration for me, though I am not super excited to play him.

The argument is essentially that this fight is projected to last a while with a -175 line to go the distance. In 15 minutes, we could see Levy land 60+ strikes and multiple takedowns. 

He arguably has a decent floor because of this, and I don’t think he’s completely out of the question to win a couple of close rounds. His ITD line is only +1100 but his last two decision wins have scored 97 and 120, so I don’t particularly care about him getting a finish.

He’s also cheap enough he could work in punt situations, and is a potential cash consideration. He shouldn’t be extremely popular.

I think Davis probably beats him though. Davis is pretty damn good on a good day, and I’m not sure I want to invest much against him right now. Levy is one of the bigger underdogs on the slate and it makes sense to prioritize more win equity.

I’m fine with a low-end mix of Levy but I’d consider it more out of necessity, rather than because I love his chances to score.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Davis by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Josiane Nunes vs. Chelsea Chandler

Fight Odds: Nunes -138, Chandler +120

Odds to Finish: -130

DraftKings Salaries: Nunes 8.4k, Chandler 7.8k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Josiane Nunes hasn’t been the most active party since joining the roster back in 2021, but she’s picked up three straight wins. Nunes will be going back down to 135 lbs. here for the first time since her UFC debut – she’s 3-0 in the UFC and 10-1 as a pro. Chelsea Chandler will be making her 3rd UFC appearance and is looking to rebound from a loss to Norma Dumont back in July. She will also be moving back down 135 lbs. for the first time since 2019 – she’s 1-1 in the UFC and 5-2 as a pro.

The striking component:

Nunes is one of the shorter girls at 135, standing only 5’2”, but she does possess a 67” reach. The best way to describe her is a Walmart version of Jessica Andrade.

She’s not technical in what she does but goes forward, likes to walk girls down and unload bombs on them. Through three UFC fights, she lands 7.22 sig. strikes per minute at 44%, and has an overall KO rate of 70% as a pro.

Despite not securing KOs in her last two wins over Pascual and Fairn, she hurt both girls numerous times in those fights. Her debut KO over Malecki was pretty nasty as well.

Despite her potent offensive game, her defense is largely an afterthought as she eats 5.85 sig. strikes per minute with a 52% defensive rate. She’s proven her toughness with her ability to take shots, although she hasn’t fought any big hitters.

Even in besting Malecki, Pascual and Fairn, all three had their own successes in the fights as well – most notably Fairn as she was able to take a round from Nunes and did actually outland her 117 to 102 in total. The bigger moments/flurries and optics just all went to Nunes which earned her that victory, but it was still a close fight.  

Overall, Nunes isn’t going to be an easy girl to look good against if opponents can’t match her pace or don’t have the defensive acumen to keep her at bay.

Despite being younger in terms of her MMA career, Chandler has been training since her teens.  

She’s not the most technical party in the world as she has some “rock em sock em” elements to her game, standing southpaw, and has nice lead hooks and a power straight left which has hurt multiple girls.   

Minute to minute, she’s bested the majority of her opponents on the feet.    

She also has a decent clinch game where she’s not very active with elbows, but she’s good with knees and can control girls there for decent chunks of time.   

Her issues primarily come defensively as she leaves herself very exposed when entering the pocket, and we have seen her hurt on three different occasions now, despite never being finished.  Because she’s also very boxing based, girls have been able to have some kicking success.   

It was really the speed and technicality of Dumont that gave her bigger issues standing in the last fight.

Overall, she’s a big, physical girl who is going to give opponents issues if they can’t match her physicality or just be better technical/counter strikers.   

How it plays out: Chander will realize a 6” height advantage but only a 1” reach edge. The striking dynamic should be fun here as both girls are bulls, and their successes lie in being the one coming forward. As noted, both girls aren’t the most technical parties and ultimately, something is going to have to give here. I side more with Nunes standing just in the sense that she’s been hurt far less often than Chandler has. 

However, Chandler is easily the biggest hitter and most physically imposing fighter that Nunes has fought to date. So despite Nunes being technically more durable historically, her durability is going to get tested here to a different degree as well.

The wrestling/grappling component:

There isn’t too much to say here with Nunes as she’s not a girl who wrestles and only reps a BJJ blue belt – no pro wins or losses via submission.

However, there are some fights to hit on.

She was stuck against the fence for roughly 75% of her fight with Araujo back in 2019 and just held onto a half-hearted guillotine. Barbosa went  2/4 against her also, back in 2019, and was able to rack up some good ground minutes there. Barbosa’s a base judo girl that is scheduled to make her UFC debut now in May.

Pascual only went 3 for 10 on Nunes but Nunes also struggled working back to her feet there. Pascual just landed the TDs later in each round.

Overall, Nunes possesses little offensive upside outside of getting on top of hurt girls. In the bit we have of her defensively, it’s not a great picture and I’d assume she’s going to drop minutes or rounds to more competent ground girls at the UFC level.

Chandler is a BJJ Brown Belt under Cesar Gracie.   

She’s still relatively green as a wrestler but has shown some solid trips when she’s gotten into clinching positions.  From there, she’s largely been pretty strong from top position, but has also lost position on a few occasions.   

She ultimately dropped her pro debut as she did struggle with TDs a bit and was a bit submission over position – that fight was 6 years ago though.   

However, Chandler has shown an aggressive guard from bottom and some really nice half guard and kimura sweeps.  Her lone submission win was more of a club and sub scenario. 

She gained a healthy amount of top time in her last regional fight but wasn’t able to secure anything, and the girl she fought was also a BJJ brown belt. Nonetheless, Chandler still won on damage and positional control.   

In her UFC debut, she got taken down by Stoliarenko, but Stoliarenko lost position going for an armbar. Then Chandler was able to get on top after two failed takedown attempts from Stoliarenko, and Chandler eventually pounded her out.

Most recently, she got grinded out by Dumont where Dumont went 3/3 on TDs and racked up nine minutes of control.

Overall, I think Chandler is a respectable grappler (for the level), and has shown good defensive responsibility when threatened, but she will struggle with more capable top players.   

How it plays out: Chandler’s had her defensive struggles at times, but it’s come against better girls. She’s at least shown that she can wrestle a bit and this is a brown belt vs blue belt on paper. I feel relatively confident in saying that Chandler is the better grappler here with more ground finish equity. As noted, we’ve seen Nunes held against the fence as well and that is something that Chandler will pursue to also accrue minutes. The bulk of the ground upside should be with Chandler here.

This fight goes to show you the state of the women’s bantamweight division as Nunes is ranked #13 and Chandler is ranked #14. Xs and Os aside, the scales are going to need to be monitored for both girls with them dropping back down in weight. I have more concern on the Chandler side because I know for a fact that her weight cuts to 135 are really tough. But matchup wise, it seems relatively high-variance based on what is written above. I’ll take Chandler for the slight upset given her grappling upside and my thinking that she can provide resistance to Nunes standing, but it’s not a passionate take.

—

On DraftKings, my preferred side is with the underdog Chandler at 7.8k, though it’s important to note that both fighters are lacking defensive skill.

Chander will be way bigger, and it’s hard for me to ever confidently side with Nunes given her small frame. Plus, Chandler’s aggressive style, with grappling upside is more likely to smash in a win than Nunes’ style.

In Chandler’s lone UFC win, she scored 111 DK points. We cautioned targeting her in a step up in competition against Dumont at chalk, and she was controlled from start to finish.

That’s really the issue here. Chandler has no real defense of any kind. She literally turned her back and ran away from Dumont in her last fight, and it became a meme. Her takedown defense is poor. Her offensive is more built on aggression than technique.

Still, Nunes is small, and just gave up 100+ sig. strikes to Zarah Fairn who isn’t special either. Nunes also gave up a few takedowns to Pascual who isn’t particularly good. 

If Chandler wins this, I see it coming from some takedowns, control, ground strikes and potentially a finish. She’s +300 to win ITD but I wouldn’t rule out that outcome.

Ultimately, at 7.8k, I think Chandler is a decent upside target. There’s no reason to consider her safe or be super confident in her winning, but I like her chances this week much better compared to her chances against Dumont, and her style will score well in a win. I’m willing to target Chandler above the field percentage this week, though you should probably cap your exposure considering the talent risk.

Nunes at 8.4k has a tougher path to the optimal because she may not have any wrestling equity, and she may get controlled herself.

Landing 100 strikes is great but that just netted her 75 DK points. She needs more. 

My best guess is that it would come via TKO, if she can hurt Chandler. Nunes is now +165 to win ITD, which is good, and the line has moved a lot from +225 earlier in the week. It’s possible she’s not owned much either, and if that’s the case, it’s not a terrible idea to come overweight based on the ITD metric alone.

I do think it’s realistic that in pure striking exchanges, Nunes lands harder on the defensively lacking Chandler and hurts her. However, I don’t feel great about it enough to force in a lot of Nunes exposure.

I still consider her a fine secondary target, and if I’m already high on Chandler, maybe I add a bit of the other side as a hedge. This fight should be high paced and messy, which is good for DK scoring, and it would be a slight risk to fade either side.

However I do feel a bit more confident in the upside and Chandler and at her cheaper price tag, she’s the side I’d rather prioritize.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chandler by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Jafel Filho vs. Ode Osbourne

Fight Odds: Filho -161, Osbourne +139

Odds to Finish: -220

DraftKings Salaries: Filho 8.7k, Osbourne 7.5k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Ode Osbourne is an alum from the 2019 season of the Contender Series to where he’s had an up and down run since entering the promotion – he’s 4-4 in the UFC and 12-6 as a pro. Jafel Filho is a fellow Contender Series alum now entering his 3rd fight in the promotion – he’s 1-1 in the UFC and 15-3 as a pro.

The striking component:

Osbourne is a respectable striker as he’s a long, athletic guy for the weight class who possesses some fast hands and explosion in his strikes. He likes to kick, fire straight shots and will flurry on opponents when he feels they are hurt.   

In that, he has shown power components with two of his four UFC wins coming via KO/TKO. 

We got some more data on him at space in his fight with Kape, where I largely thought he had a decent first round before he got blasted with a flying knee.  He was able to be the more effective striker against Vergara but the margins he won that fight by weren’t large. Osbourne also slowed significantly in the 3rd round and Vergara landed on him at a rate above 50% at distance.   He blasted Adashev in a minute. 

The Johnson fight was competitive at distance where the argument is there that Johnson was the more effective striker in totality. Johnson did come in on super short notice too which I think played a factor in the outcome of that fight. 

Most recently, not much happened against Almabayev but he did land some good kicks.  

Defensively, he will keep his head right on the center line when he’s flurrying and largely relying on his athleticism.  I also don’t like how he will fight with his hands down and he tends not to get them back up after he throws his combos.  

The pressure of Vergara and Johnson also gave him some issues and he’s been KO’d in two of his four UFC losses, granted by two guys who hit hard at 125.   

Overall, Osbourne is a respectable offensive striker but he’s still only defending distance strikes at 49% and I do question his durability. 

Our footage on Filho in recent years isn’t vast and a good chunk of his fights involve heavier grappling components, so he’s still a bit difficult to assess on the feet pro or con.  

Historically, he’s been a lower volume guy who likes to pick and choose his shots.  

But he has been accurate to some degree and has shown some sneaky elements of power with five pro wins via strikes – he landed a nasty body shot back on the regionals, hit Echeverria with an excellent hook on the Contender Series and also landed some clean shots in his last outing against Barez that buckled him.

But I don’t think you can really anticipate Filho to go out there and pace his opponents in a vacuum.  

Defensively, he hasn’t faced extensive volume as his style tends to slow the pace of fights traditionally. He appears to be more susceptible to kicks as we saw both Echeverria and Barez have success there.

However, Barez also ripped his body and hurt Filho early on a few different occasions.

But he’s also proven his toughness specifically in that fight and in his pro career having never been KO’d.

Overall, in what is a higher paced division, I would like to see more sense of urgency from Filho because he may just get behind on the numbers now fighting at the UFC level, but he’s not a guy opponents can sleep on either.  

How it plays out: Despite some flakiness from Osbourne at times and me still having some issues with him on the feet, I’d favor him in overall distance exchanges. He’s more consistent to produce offense, is coming in with a southpaw look, is the better kicker and will have a 5” reach advantage here. The concern I have with Osbourne is the defense and durability as Filho can sneak stuff in, and Osbourne’s distance differential is only slightly positive so far in the UFC.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Osbourne comes from a wrestling background, but we haven’t seen him realize much offensive wrestling success in his MMA career.  Against Vergara, he went 1/7 on TDs and wasn’t able to establish control.    

He went 3/10 on Johnson with a little less than three minutes of control to which he also wasn’t able to do much with it. But it was a close fight and those handful of latter TDs did help Osbourne get the nod on the cards.  

Despite his background, he’s usually the one who’s actually being taken down.  

Osbourne reps a BJJ purple belt which has aided him in securing triangles or armbars from bottom in a handful of scenarios regionally.   

In those instances, all three of those opponents did that to themselves, meaning they defended very poorly or put themselves deeper into the submissions which allowed Ode to finish. I can’t take anything away from Ode in that regard, but those regional guys had little grappling chops.    

Another scenario was when Kelleher took him down – Kelleher passed his guard and guillotined him from cage mount in less than three minutes.  We also saw Vergara get on top of Osbourne later in the fight in which he just played guard and lost the round.    

Almabayev also went 2/5 on TDs where he locked up a deeper Peruvian Necktie towards the end of the 1st round, and got to Osbourne’s back in the 2nd round, finding a RNC shortly after.

Overall, Osbourne can best more incompetent wrestler/grapplers, but I don’t rate his overall floor game as it translates to a UFC level in fighting higher caliber opponents.

Filho is best as a grappler, repping a BJJ black belt and nine pro wins via submission.  

His wrestling isn’t the best, but it is serviceable for a base jiu-jitsu guy. He primarily excels from the body lock to land trips, but he is also solid transitionally in being able to advance positions and does well in taking the back – he has six wins via RNC.

Defensively, we haven’t seen him on bottom much outside of his outing against Mokaev, who went 4/8 on takedowns, racking up eight minutes of control.  

But I thought Filho made a decent account of himself as he was able to work out of positions and actually threaten Mokaev with a really nasty knee bar towards the end of the fight, which would have probably tapped like 80% of guys but Mokaev toughed it out. After failing on that attempt, Filho got his back taken and was submitted.  

To me that was more a product of him getting tired than any admonishment on his defensive grappling necessarily. However, he was submitted in his last loss prior in the 3rd round as well, so there may be something to it – it was a fight I wasn’t able to view though.

He’s played a bit of guard in certain instances but he’s also a guy who will invert to attack the legs to create space/scrambles.  

Overall, he’s probably going to struggle with stronger offensive wrestlers who have positional awareness, but he is of bigger danger to many opponents on the mat.

How it plays out: Despite the wrestling background of Osbourne, I don’t think he’s going to wrestle much in this matchup if I had to guess. Osbourne is stuffing takedowns at 68% which is a respectable mark, but the biggest difference on the floor is the jiu-jitsu that’s in favor of Filho. I think he may struggle to land conventional TDs on Osbourne, but caught kicks and transitional cage TDs have viability. Important to note, Osbourne’s only fought two base grapplers in the UFC and he was submitted by both. The bulk of the ground upside should go to Filho here.

Interesting fight. I’ve never been the biggest Osbourne supporter as he’s one of those guys who isn’t really the sum of his parts. Conversely, Filho has a pretty beatable style at the UFC level with the right opponent across from him. The fight in all likelihood comes down to who can capitalize on the mistakes of the other. I lean more to the Filho side in being able to hang around on the feet and find his opportunities on the floor to finish Osbourne but there’s risk with picking either man.

—

On DraftKings, there is plenty of finishing equity tied to this fight, which does intrigue me from a fantasy perspective.

It also could play out in binary fashion, meaning it may not be competitive. Either Filho will outgrapple Osbourne and submit him, or Osbourne may knock Filho out. Those are two realistic outcomes in my mind.

Filho is priced at 8.7k and he’s a fine option. He has a +100 ITD line which definitely indicates finishing upside, and considering it could come from grappling exchanges, his ceiling is high.

He won’t carry an elite ceiling in comparison to fighters who can land 10 takedowns, but 2-3 takedowns + an early submission would give him a score competitive with the optimal. That’s what you want if you’re rostering him.

At 8.7k, I’m willing to play some Filho. It would be a bit scary to fade him outright given the matchup. However, I don’t think I’m willing to load up either because he hasn’t really proven himself as a wrestler and his striking is suspect.

To me, he’s just the boom or bust equivalent of a grappler. I’d like to cover myself in case the early finish comes, but I probably won’t be aggressive in rostering him above the field percentage.

Osbourne at 7.5k will likely need a knockout to compete with the optimal, but I think that’s possible. He’s +270 to win ITD which is decent. I also am not expecting him to be super popular considering his recent losses.

While there is no real floor here, and knocking Filho out may not be an easy outcome, if Osbourne can keep this fight upright, his chances are there. He’s cheap enough, combined with a decent enough matchup and some historic finishing upside for me to roster, and I prefer his chances compared to the majority of fighters priced below him.

I will mix him in as a secondary target with upside.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Filho by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Thiago Moises vs. Mitch Ramirez

Fight Odds: Moises -376, Ramirez +295

Odds to Finish: -200

DraftKings Salaries: Moises 9.3k, Ramirez 6.9k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Thiago Moises came into the UFC relatively young and in his early 20s, but he hasn’t had an easy road which gives credence to his underwhelming UFC record – he’s 6-5 in the promotion and 17-7 as a pro. Mitch Ramirez got a crack on the Contender Series this past August but came up short against Carlos Prates. He’ll be stepping in on two weeks’ notice to make his debut, replacing Brad Riddell – he’s 8-1 as a pro.

The striking component:

Moises has always had some under-rated technical striking in my eyes.   He’s a BJJ player by base so people will often overlook him in this capacity.    

I actually think his combinations are crisp, he’s technical, and has some pop and fast hands.  The issue is that he’s low output, landing only 2.47 sig. strikes per minute with a 39% accuracy, and he has been walked down at times.    

In that, we’ve seen him out landed on the numbers in eight of his 11 UFC fights.    

HOWEVER, there is massive context needed as Moises has arguably had one of the toughest strengths of schedule for a guy coming into the UFC in his early 20s that I’ve ever seen.  

Eight of his 11 opponents were/are top 10-25 guys in a tough 155 lb. division, and good strikers to boot in Ismagulov, Green, Dariush, Johnson, Hernandez and Makhachev – he got blitzed by Alvarez who showed off much improved striking in that bout and I generally feel Moises was just caught off guard.    

But he was able to land the bigger shots against Green and out strike Hernandez – both of which are impressive to me.    

Defensively, he eats 4.4 sig. strikes per minute with a 54% defensive rate — not great – once again massive context needed there considering he’s faced higher level talents and is still defending distance strikes at 60%, which isn’t that bad all things considered. He’s also only been dropped once.

Overall, he’s going to continue to struggle with upper tier strikers in this weight class but he is definitely capable at a bare minimum of competing with, or outstriking mid to lower tier strikers.  

I’m unsure of Ramirez’s official background but he works a more stalking, kickboxing based style. He’ll fight out of both stances but traditionally prefers southpaw.

Five of his eight pro wins come via KO/TKO so he’s displayed some power throughout his career – additionally, three of those finishes have stemmed from kicks to legs, body and head.

But despite his more stalking type of nature, he’s lower output and slow quite frankly.

He doesn’t throw in combinations often and isn’t a guy you can project to really go out there and “pace” guys. I don’t want to say he’s uncomfortable on the feet because that’s not correct but he’s just rigid.

As a result, he’s been very susceptible to straight shots coming back his way from longer opponents – although he hasn’t faced a ton of extensive volume himself.

The best fighter he’s faced was Prates on the Contender Series who just tactically picked him apart and eventually found the kill shot in the 2nd round.

But I have seen him buckled on a few other occasions as well – still difficult to call him “chinny” though, considering Prates is massive and a historic KO artist.

Overall, Ramirez is the type who really needs to be in the driver’s seat to realize success but I don’t have much optimism for him on the feet at the UFC level, especially at a deep weight class like 155 lbs.

How it plays out: As noted, I have issues with the volume of both guys, but Moises has a pretty clear advantage in the speed and footwork department of this matchup. If Ramirez was a guy to just get after dudes, cut them off, throw volume and chunk bungalows, I’d maybe have some more pause with Moises standing. But Ramirez is probably the most winnable matchup on the feet for Moises that he’s fought in the UFC. With all of that being said, it’s hard to have any conviction in a guy like Moises in extended exchanges because of his volume, and because he’s not being overtly dangerous.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Moises has been competing in MMA for a while now but comes from a sport jiu-jitsu background where’s gone to duration time with higher level grapplers in Vagner Rocha and Richie Martinez.

In MMA, roughly half of his wins have come via submission as his back take is solid and does a good job of setting traps on the ground.  His offensive wrestling isn’t anything overtly special but it’s above-average in my eyes.

He was able to show some good things in the Holobaugh fight, he took down Bobby Green twice and got to his back (not an easy thing to do), and is actually only one of three guys to ever take down Islam Makhachev (almost got to his back as well).    

We more recently saw him run a fellow black belt on the floor in Christos Giagos, as well as a younger prospect in Mel Costa, securing subs in both contests.   

But he’s also been grinded out in the wrestling at times, most notably by Dariush and Makhachev, which in reality isn’t a knock at all given the pedigree of both who hold elite top games – Makhachev is now the Champion and Dariush is a top five guy.

Saint Denis most recently butchered him as the physicality, pressure and pace was just too much, but Saint Denis has done that to the majority of his opponents.

Overall, he’ll struggle to ground strong anti-wrestlers but is a solid BJJ player and capable wrestler.

Ramirez is a BJJ purple belt and a somewhat capable offensive wrestler.

I wasn’t able to find any of his pro submission wins but wrestling was a factor in his decision win over Correa, and it played a role in taking some minutes from Holloway.

Similar to his striking, he’s relatively slow in terms of his entries but is physically strong and can dump guys that he gets in on. But he hasn’t been particularly active in throwing ground strikes or passing guard in the fights I’ve seen.

Defensively, he’s largely a question mark as I’ve never seen him really shot on.

He took Prates down on Contender Series and got a bit of control time, but he also got elevator swept and worked up to the feet shortly after. That’s about all there is to say with Ramirez at this point.

How it plays out: Given that we have essentially no sample of Ramirez having to defensively wrestle or be threatened from the bottom, it’s hard to analyze the ground from historics. But in taking a wide view, I’m pretty confident that Moises is the better jiu-jitsu player by a considerable margin who’s taken down multiple guys in the UFC that haven’t been easy to take down. Given Moises’ pedigree, I’m not entirely sure Ramirez will even want to play on the floor with Moises. Given the perceived level gap in the grappling, Moises is really live for a submission here if he gets one dominant position.

I don’t want to say Ramirez is an outright “softball” for Moises because he has some power, is physically strong and can wrestle a bit. But honestly, Moises fought tougher guys than Ramirez dating back to his regional days. Ramirez just doesn’t seem UFC level to me whereas Moises is a top 25 guy at this weight class. 

Barring him slipping on a banana peel or getting clipped with something, Moises should win this fight at a high clip. Especially factoring in that this is short notice for Ramirez and he’s shown cardio issues in extended fights regionally. Moises via submission is the pick.

—

On DraftKings, Moises was recently priced in given the short notice and finds himself at 9.3k, the second most expensive fighter on the slate.

My issues with Moises are that he is pretty inactive as a striker, and he rarely wrestles in volume. His upside will be tied to takedowns and an early finish, which does feel quite realistic given his -140 ITD line.

I guess he has a weaker floor than others on the slate from an activity perspective too, though his moneyline sits at -376 and there can be safety derived from that alone.

I don’t have a super strong opinion here, but I like Moises’ potential to have grappling success. Nzechukwu feels a little safer to get a knockout, and to be more active with volume. Davis should be more active as well.

Moises arguably is facing the weakest opponent of the group though, and should have domination upside from that regard. We are lacking data on Ramirez though so I wouldn’t consider it a guarantee.

Ultimately, you want Moises to replicate one of his recent wins where he landed four takedowns and won by submission in round two, scoring 113 points. A “good performance” with a submission that scores 100-105 may not be enough, and that’s why no fighter should be considered a lock at this price tag.

My assumption is he’ll be lower owned than Nzechukwu, and might work as a direct pivot from him. His metrics are great in this matchup but it may be tricky for people to pay up to him with urgency, and so I’m not expecting him to end up as ultra chalk.

There’s no right or wrong answer here but given the ITD line and grappling upside, Moises has a high ceiling and rates out as a strong tournament option, if you can afford him.

Ramirez at 6.9k doesn’t interest me much. Moises won’t engage dangerously standing and will probably limit activity there. Takedowns from Ramirez may get him into more trouble than he wants.

He’s one of the bigger dogs, coming in on short notice, and doesn’t rate out particularly well as a prospect. He’s +525 to win ITD which isn’t great.

I expect Ramirez to be low owned and I suppose he has upside if he can win by KO, but it just feels like a low percentage outcome and I don’t think I’m willing to invest much here with a limited portfolio.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Moises by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Josh Culibao vs. Danny Silva

Fight Odds: Culibao -181, Silva +155

Odds to Finish: +130

DraftKings Salaries: Culibao 8.8k, Silva 7.4k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a very random fight here between Josh Culibao and UFC debutant Danny Silva, who just won his contract on the Contender Series.

Culibao is kind of just a scrapper. He is 10-2-1 professionally and generally seems like a tough dude who is probably reliant on winning striking fights.

Culibao is an adequate striker who can be technical at times, with sneaky power. However, I just hate his volume and athleticism. He only lands 2.68 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.29 in return. He has fought good competition though, so I will defend him there, and he has competed with decent strikers like Charles Jourdain and SeungWoo Choi.

Still though, I just don’t love Culibao’s game and don’t find him very trustworthy to back with an investment. He is fine and technical, and can land some big shots occasionally, but he just doesn’t put up a ton of volume and he doesn’t land takedowns either, so his round winning ability is not great. He is a tough and experienced guy on the feet though.

Culibao does have a random RNC win against Melsik Baghdasaryan. However, Culibao hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC yet. He has attempted a bunch of them, but has landed zero, so he is clearly not a talented wrestler. 

It is hard to be too confident in his offensive wrestling at this level, but he is a BJJ black belt and is at least competent on the mat. If he happens to get the fight to the mat, maybe he can have success. It is just hard to trust him to consistently get the fight there.

Culibao will be taking on Danny Silva, who will be making his UFC debut. Silva is 8-1 professionally coming from the LFA promotion. Silva was on the Contender Series in September of 2023 in a really fun fight where he landed 204 significant strikes, while his opponent landed 197. Silva also landed a knockdown and two takedowns in that fight.

Silva showed a lot of offensive upside in that fight which I like. He is still a bit sloppy and hittable though, and not too reliant on technique. Silva is generally just a come-forward boxer who relies on output and cardio. I don’t think he is a great fighter or anything, but you know what he is going to do and oftentimes, volume can be enough. He is going to come forward and go after his opponent and he also seems tough.

Silva still just hasn’t fought many great opponents though. He also isn’t the best defensive grappler. I have seen him taken down and put in bad spots. Decent grapplers will surely have success against him.

That’s why Culibao could just win here with no issue. Culibao is way more experienced than Silva, and he is probably better technically as a striker and as a grappler. Culibao may just get a takedown, get the back and get a submission, or ride out some control.

It is just hard to say Culibao does that confidently though. Culibao has still not landed a single takedown in the UFC. This is the easiest fight Culibao has probably had though, so grappling success is more likely here than ever, but I just don’t think it is smart to trust Culibao to go out there and easily land takedowns and dominate.

This fight may just end up on the feet where Culibao may be better technically, but Silva has displayed much more volume. Culibao’s career high in significant strikes is 53 which is just awful.

So I think we may just get a competitive striking fight where Silva is the more active guy, while Culibao may be a bit more technical. Either guy could probably hurt the other, but Silva seems tough. I think Silva is a live dog to just win this on activity. I am going to go with the upset here.

—

On DraftKings, this could honestly be a pretty sneaky fight, though it’s a little hard to gauge what the public will want to do.

Silva isn’t necessarily the “preferred” target but he’s absolutely one of the underdogs I like on this slate and I will be taking chances on him at 7.4k.

My mouth was literally watering as I watched him land 204 sig. strikes in his DWCS bout, and for reference, Culibao has not yet achieved 204 total sig. strikes landed in six UFC bouts..

While there are issues that come with Silva, his ability to land volume gives him a clear path to victory at this level, assuming his cardio and durability hold up. While it may not be enough to beat Culibao, I certainly can see that potential, and at 7.4k I am willing to take the risk.

It could also result in a knockout, though that’s not extremely likely as Silva’s ITD line sits at +360.

I will also disagree with Tim a little bit in that I think Silva is quite technical as a boxer. The problem is that he won’t excel as much in longer ranges, which is where Culibao tends to work.

So I can see a situation where Silva has to chase Culibao down a bit, and has trouble finding him, which would limit the upside for both parties. Also, Silva doesn’t move his feet fast enough which is partially why he’s getting hit so much. He seems super tough but you just never know when taking that much damage will result in a knockout loss.

Culibao at 8.8k will definitely be a contrarian option, and it’s really tough to prioritize him.

He has only scored 58, 76 and 77 in his three UFC wins, which is just awful. You can theoretically just ignore him because of his historic lack of upside.

However, I think Silva will try to force a higher pace, which could lead to more exchanges than Culibao is used to. It may also force Culibao to try and wrestle. While it’s hard to count on success there, it simply means that a win for Culibao may look a little different than his past wins, and in theory it could score better as well.

Culibao is +240 to win ITD and I think a TKO or submission would really be beneficial for him to reach a legitimate ceiling. Again, it’s hard to count on, but maybe because of the high pace, a finish will come easier if he wins at all.

I’m still not going to prioritize Culibao with a limited portfolio, but he’s viable as a sneaky/contrarian target, and he saves a little bit of salary off the top end.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Jaqueline Amorim vs. Cory McKenna

Fight Odds: McKenna -125, Amorim +109

Odds to Finish: +130

DraftKings Salaries: McKenna 8.2k, Amorim 8k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an interesting matchup here between Cory McKenna and submission ace Jaqueline Amorim.

McKenna doesn’t carry a high ceiling in this sport, but she’s okay. I just don’t think she is very athletic or physical. She also just doesn’t have any A+ parts of her game which makes it difficult for her to consistently win at this level.

However, she is reasonably competent and still young, so maybe she can continue to develop behind a decent camp at Team Alpha Male. I doubt she ever becomes a serious contender in the UFC though.

McKenna isn’t all that great as a striker. She lands 3.01 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 in return. She just kind of goes through the motions and I just don’t think McKenna hits hard enough to land effectively or really threaten for knockouts. 

I think her striking ceiling is just very limited because of that. She has landed 47, 57, 60, 13, and 22 significant strikes in five UFC fights, which isn’t great.

I am probably most confident in McKenna as a grappler. She isn’t great as a wrestler but she is competent. She lands 2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes. I actually think her top control is okay. I really like her submission stifling ability as well. She has never been submitted in her MMA career which spans 16 fights, so if she gets top control, she can stay safe and win minutes.

McKenna also defends takedowns at 71 percent. She can be controlled a bit though, like she was against Kay Hansen just because she is just lacking in physicality. She got body triangled in that fight, but generally has shown decent grappling resistance and an ability to not get submitted.

McKenna will be taking on Jacqueline Amorim. She is a BJJ black belt and has a great track record in big time BJJ tournaments. She took 2nd in the black belt division of the IBJJF world no-gi championships in 2016.

Amorim is now dedicated to MMA and is 7-1 professionally. She made her UFC debut against Sam Hughes and won round one with dominant grappling positions. She took Hughes down, body triangled her, and nearly submitted her. Then Amorim gassed horribly, started pulling guard, and just got beat up on her back for the next two rounds. Her next UFC fight was a dominant grappling based win against Conejo Ruiz.

Most of Amorim’s career before the UFC was spent in LFA where she was the LFA champion. Amorim’s fights have generally all been the same. She has finished most of her opponents in round one, generally by submission. She generally looks to take opponents down and pass their guard and submit them. 

It has worked well for her thus far. Her BJJ looks good which is no surprise given her credentials. I think she is an interesting prospect and will continue to have grappling based success in the UFC.

I just hate Amorim’s cardio, man. She had nothing for 10 minutes against Sam Hughes which was a major red flag. Furthermore, she has no striking and looks to pull guard when she is too tired to land takedowns.

That is why I actually like McKenna in this matchup. McKenna has superior cardio and is honestly a better striker as well.

I definitely think Amorim can have early success so perhaps this is a live betting opportunity on McKenna. Amorim can probably land takedowns, and maybe get the back and threaten with a submission.

McKenna is just seasoned as a grappler though. My guess is McKenna can put up some sort of resistance, and just survive and make Amorim work. If that happens, I favor McKenna in rounds 2 and 3 pretty heavily given her striking and cardio advantage.

Furthermore, I just think Amorim will start pulling guard and McKenna can land takedowns here too. McKenna’s best area of her game is floating on top and stifling submissions, which just makes me think she matches up well here against Amorim. McKenna can basically do exactly what Hughes did to Amorim in the later rounds.

So I am going to go with McKenna here. Her gas tank is proven to be significantly better and she seems competent enough to avoid getting submitted early.

—

On DraftKings, this is one of many tricky matchups on the slate, and it’s certainly one I will have exposure to.

Amorim is the more obvious play in my mind and the priority from a DraftKings perspective. She is only 8k, and her win condition lies in early success, and dominant grappling, which is always the best way to score points.

He lone win in the UFC scored 120 points, and she would have smashed against Hughes if she’d gotten that submission too.

Her cardio is a MAJOR concern though, but that’s likely going to mean she’s lower owned than a fighter like her would typically be given that we have negative answers to the questions asked before she made her debut.

Amorim at 8k with a +160 ITD line is just too good for me to pass up on though. McKenna is not physical at all, and Amorim very likely gets her down and takes her back early, and it’s possible that just ends in a submission.

I’m not willing to bet my entire night that McKenna will survive the early rounds, which is what you’d be doing by fading Amorim in my opinion.

While she doesn’t have to be a primary option for you, Amorim should be in your player pool. I personally wouldn’t mind prioritizing her though at 8k, and if she fails again, so be it. The upside is worth targeting to a degree for sure.

McKenna at 8.2k is a tougher call because she can definitely win this fight in the manner Tim laid out, but there’s less of a guarantee of upside.

And it would still likely come with Amorim having success in round one. If Amorim is controlling McKenna, she may not score any points until round two, and then even if Amorim is pulling guard, that can limit McKenna’s success.

Essentially, this fight could look somewhat dominant by McKenna in the second half, but it may not be scored as dominantly on DK given the situation, and that scares me. McKenna is only +600 to win ITD and I would really prefer a finish from her to compete with the optimal.

Still, McKenna is a fine play, especially if she projects to be low owned while Amorim is highly owned. It would present a nice leverage opportunity, and while McKenna may not be super physical, she does try pretty hard.

While it’s tougher to predict exactly how those final two rounds play out, McKenna winning *could* result in a decent score at her price point. She’s only a secondary/leverage target for me and less of a priority, but I would mix her in with a larger portfolio.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Amorim by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Charalampos Grigoriou vs. Chad Anheliger

Fight Odds: Grigoriou -162, Anheliger +140

Odds to Finish: -155

DraftKings Salaries: Grigoriou 8.9k, Anheliger 7.3k

Weight Class: 135

The UFC matchmakers aren’t doing me any favors as.. *clears throat*.. Charalampos Grigorioiu is making his UFC debut Saturday night against Chad Anheliger.

Grigoriou is 8-3 professionally at age 31, fighting out a strong camp at Serra-Longo, and he’s earned six wins by TKO and two by decision.

I don’t consider Grigoriou a special prospect, but he’s competent, and he’s getting a pretty soft matchup against Anheliger.

Grigoriou is a karate black belt and national champion, and his kicking game is pretty decent. I don’t care much about the flash, but he’ll throw low leg kicks which is one of the most important striking techniques these days. You can dramatically change a fight with those, which he has on the regional scene, winning via TKO (leg kicks) on two separate occasions.

He won by KO in one minute to earn his contract on the Contender Series in August, but I wouldn’t label him a pure power striker. He’s quick, and has some explosion, but I don’t necessarily foresee him earning KOs against good competition.

As a grappler, Grigoriou is adequate, but not spectacular. He’s a purple belt in jiu-jitsu and I’ve liked some of his transitions on the mat. He definitely knows what he’s doing, but he’s never won by submission in his career, so it’s hard to argue he’s dominant in that area.

He can wrestle well enough too. I’ve seen him land some takedowns, but not against great competition. I’ve seen him taken down a couple times too, though he will sprawl well other times.

One potential weakness in his game is his cardio. He’s actually won a five-rounder before but that came against a weak opponent who he had battered with leg kicks. He got tired and was TKOd by Christian Rodriguez in round three, who is also fighting on this card. I’ve also seen him look tired at the end of decisions.

I don’t feel great about Grigoriou as a prospect because I don’t think he has one clear path to victory. His striking is OK and his grappling is OK but I think he will get beaten in both aspects by good opponents.

Fortunately for Grigoriou, he’s fighting Chad Anheliger this weekend who is toward the bottom of the division in my opinion, and doesn’t possess a lot of dangerous tools.

Anheliger has two aspects of his game that are decent though, and they are his cardio and his power. He has won multiple fights in which he was losing early, but came back to land damaging strikes and either take a decision, or secure a knockout.

The problems are many. He’s not the most active striker, and only lands 3.07 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.55 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate.

He’s not a good wrestler, despite landing four takedowns against Johnson in his last fight, and I don’t trust him at all on the mat. He was reversed multiple times from top position, and doesn’t rate out as a great athlete anyways.

He’s defending takedowns at 47 percent which is awful, and he’s given up takedowns to all four of his UFC/DWCS opponents.

Essentially, you’re hoping he’s facing someone else who isn’t particularly good, in which case Anheliger might be able to outlast them, or land some damaging strikes along the way.

Those are still paths to victory here. I mean, look at the betting line. The fact that it’s remotely competitive is a concern for Grigoriou.

I still have to side with the newcomer though. I think his striking is just as dangerous, but he will work in longer ranges than Anheliger. It’s quite possible he can batter Anheliger’s legs and eventually dominate him once Anheliger is worn down.

Grigoriou is probably the better wrestler, and I have to believe he’s the better submission grappler. I don’t consider him a lock to actually shoot for takedowns, but it probably would be smart to do so. He still hasn’t proven he can finish fights on the mat though.

I think Anheliger’s best chance is to neutralize the grappling, pressure, and wear Grigoriou with a few power punches. Maybe that translates into a knockout. I’d be pretty surprised if Anheliger was winning clean rounds, given his historic lack of offense.

While I don’t love Grigoriou long term, I am very low on Anheliger’s talent, and I think Grigoriou has more tools and physicality to win. If he can’t, it will signal a failed prospect for me.

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On DraftKings, Grigoriou is priced at 8.9k which is much more expensive than I would like to pay.

Especially as a favorite in the -160 range, we usually don’t get them priced up this highly. I don’t think Grigoriou can land enough volume or takedowns to compete for the optimal lineup in a decision, and it puts him much more firmly into the boom or bust category.

He is +130 to win ITD, which is a fine line, but Anheliger has never lost by TKO in his entire career. He has lost by submission six times… so maybe this is Grigoriou’s first career submission win? We’ll see.

Despite not rating out super well, I do think Grigoriou could win ITD just because Anheliger lacks skill in a lot of areas. The leg kicks play a factor. The grappling plays some factor. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Grigoriou win or win quickly.

How much are you willing to risk it at his price though?

For me, it’s tough. The good news is that as the preliminary opener, I’m not expecting big ownership here. Especially with his betting line falling, the public might be afraid to play Grigoriou and I could see him coming in fairly light on ownership.

If that happens, I would be more excited and he could potentially be a good contrarian play. I think I am still willing to target some Grigoriou in tournaments regardless, but he’s much more of a secondary target than any sort of priority.

Anheliger at 7.3k is cheap enough to take a shot on as a small +140 dog. That’s really the best thing about this play is that in theory you’re getting decent win equity for the price.

However, his floor is extremely low. I wouldn’t even expect 60 significant strikes in a decision, and he probably won’t land any takedowns. He’s likely dependent on a knockout to really achieve a ceiling.

Anheliger is +300 to win ITD which isn’t too great. You can still consider him just in case, as we’ve seen Grigoriou fade before. But man, Anheliger is not very good and I will have a pretty firm cap on my exposure here.

This fight as a whole generally falls into my “mental health fight of the night” category, considering it’s the preliminary opener. It’s not a huge priority, nor do I think an optimal score for either side is the most likely outcome.

If you want to hedge yourself on entertainment for the rest of the night and cover these positions a bit, just in case, I don’t think that’s a terrible way to live.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Grigoriou by Decision (Confidence=Low)