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Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Fight Odds: Strickland -121, Du Plessis +109
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Strickland 8.2k, Du Plessis 8k
Weight Class: 185
If you had told me one year ago that I would be writing up Sean Strickland versus Dricus Du Plessis for the middleweight championship of the world, well, I might have believed you because this sport is absolutely insane and literally anyone can become champion if they’re active enough.
I’ve always considered Strickland a talented fighter and I’ve been on him in various spots throughout his career, both in wins and in losses. He’s a total mess of a person which has been largely attributed to a traumatic childhood, but I’ve always tried to put aside the personas of some of these fighters in favor of their in-fight attributes, because that’s what matters when we’re analyzing matchups.
And Strickland, for better or worse, is a largely technical striker with volume and cardio to push most opponents in this division on a given night.
I did suggest that even against Adesanya, Strickland was live to win. In part because Adesanya does not wrestle and wouldn’t test Strickland in that area. And in part because Adesanya has never been a high-volume striker, so if that fight happened to take place on the feet for 25 minutes, Strickland was very likely to be competitive in terms of his willingness to actually attempt strikes.
I didn’t expect the matchup to play out so one-sided in Strickland’s favor though, as he largely beat Adesanya up for five rounds.
Strickland walked forward, and landed 137 significant strikes against Adesanya in that fight, dropping him in the first round as well. Adesanya wasn’t able to get much respect with his offense, and wasn’t able to hurt Strickland at any point.
That’s the most simple, macro version of what happened.
But it’s also important because that’s who Strickland is on the whole. He’s capable of fighting with that style against any opponent who will let him because that’s what his game is built around. He fights in a pseudo-sparring style, never really exerting himself and overcommitting to a finish. In that mode, he’s able to consistently pressure, strike, and he has the ability to break opponents over 15 or 25 minutes.
The downside to Strickland’s game probably comes in the form of IQ, or depth. He’s actually a good wrestler and grappler, but only averages less than 1 takedown per 15 minutes because wrestling isn’t fun for him.
Even in spots where he should wrestle, like when his coaches asked for it against Adesanya (or Alex Pereira), he may simply choose in the moment to ignore that game plan and go blow for blow with his opponent instead.
Essentially, I don’t necessarily trust Strickland to fight “smart” or attack his opponent’s weaknesses. But I do trust that he will fight hard for the entirety of the fight, and that will continue to give him a realistic chance to win.
His first title defense will come against Dricus Du Plessis, who I am not a fan of, and haven’t been able to capitalize much on his six-fight win streak.
Du Plessis can be aggressive at times, and he has knockout power, but those are the only real attributes I respect in his game.
My biggest issue, or one of them, is that Du Plessis always looks exhausted. He’s not a technical fighter to begin with and even by round two, he’s often flailing around and seems extremely open to be hurt and put away.
To his credit, he fights through this exhaustion very well. He’s not the type who will quit if he is tired.
We can look at a very recent example against Derek Brunson in which Brunson got on top of Du Plessis in the first round and clearly took the lead. Du Plessis looked exhausted, yet it was Brunson’s corner who was quite literally throwing in the towel by the end of round two. Sad.
Du Plessis has blamed an issue with his nose on his inability to breathe, which he has now fixed. I’m sure that didn’t help his issue, but I also don’t see it as a case where he’s now suddenly got championship-level cardio.
His most recent win over Robert Whittaker was impressive, but I can’t say Du Plessis fought or looked much better than I’d previously seen him. He just has the ability to land big power strikes, big kicks, and he hurts his opponents often.
He hurt Whittaker in round two and put him away, but he hurt him with a jab and it left me feeling more sad about Whittaker than I was hyped up about Du Plessis.
Still, I have to respect Du Plessis’ ability to damage opponents, and that will be a realistic path to victory for him against Strickland as well.
This fight is likely going to be messy, but ultimately, I have to favor Strickland.
When I look at these two fighters, the main difference that I see is that Strickland is capable of striking at a high pace for 25 minutes, while Du Plessis is very likely not.
Du Plessis has very rarely even gotten hit in the UFC. Only one of his six opponents has landed more than 37 significant strikes. I simply do not trust that he can fight hard, through exhaustion, against an opponent like Strickland who is capable of landing upwards of 150 significant strikes.
For record’s sake, Strickland lands 6.2 sig. strikes per minute at distance, while absorbing 4.6 per minute. He’s topped out at 186, 182, 153 and 152 in strikes landed over 25 minutes.
Du Plessis’ metrics are good too, as he lands 6.8 sig. strikes per minute at distance while absorbing only 4.6 per minute. However, Du Plessis has only spent a total of 39 minutes at distance, while Strickland has spent 247 minutes at distance.
Du Plessis landed 113 sig. strikes in 15 minutes against Brad Tavares, so perhaps he is capable of matching a high pace, but ultimately Strickland is likely to push him more than any opponent has in the past, and that’s what makes me nervous.
If we find ourselves in a situation where Du Plessis is tired, and getting pressed backward by Strickland, I think Strickland could potentially beat him to a pulp and stop the fight. That feels like a realistic outcome to me, and the longer the fight goes, the more I would have to favor Strickland.
Du Plessis, I think, is more likely to find success with early damage. Strickland was knocked out in round one by Alex Pereira, and by Zaleski dos Santos. He also absorbs more than 4.2 significant strikes per minute.
Du Plessis will land on Strickland, and it’s really a question of whether he lands hard enough to put Strickland away.
While that outcome is possible, I trust Strickland more defensively and he has to be my lean here. His striking defense is better (63% vs. 53%), his takedown defense is better (84% vs. 40%), his volume upside is greater, and he’s more experienced with the better cardio.
Real-life intelligence may go in the direction of Du Plessis, as does knockout power. I of course give Du Plessis a chance to find the button, and put Strickland away, but that chance isn’t great enough for me to pick him outright and I’d guess the value still lies with the champion here.
On DraftKings, this is our most mid-range priced fight with Strickland at 8.2k and Du Plessis at 8k.
Because of that, I think this matchup will be a priority for most people, and I expect both sides to be very popular publicly.
I’ve actually seen a lot of love for Du Plessis throughout the week and I wouldn’t be shocked if he is the more popular party come Saturday. He is +150 to win ITD and clearly has early finishing upside given his style.
Regardless, Strickland will carry a high ownership floor as well, and his ITD line is currently better at +130.
The supposed risk for either side would be if the fight goes the distance at +250, which is not extremely likely but possible. In that case, even if the winner were to land 140 significant strikes, it’s possible that they would not surpass the 90 point mark and could miss on the optimal lineup.
It does feel likely that we’ll see the fight end inside the distance though at -325. Both sides have knockout ability, and even in a decision, I do think we’ll see a high pace and a strong strike number for the winner.
Strickland has scored 144, 93, 118 and 95 points in four separate five-round decisions, which is pretty strong. Any of those scores would be competitive with the optimal lineup and clearly, a couple of them would be locks.
My preferred play is Strickland here and I will have more exposure to him, potentially by a considerable amount.
But really, I’m not sure there’s one single strategy that’s necessary over another. If you strongly prefer Du Plessis, which I know many will, I think it would be fine to prioritize him.
If you are simply unsure, and want to split your exposure down the middle, I don’t think that’s incorrect. Stacking up the fight in cash games makes sense as an initial starting point.
Fading would be the most risky strategy and it’s certainly a way to be unique on this slate. I’m not inclined to do that at a very high rate though.
Ultimately, the projected pace and threat of danger on both sides, in a fight that’s quite likely to end inside the distance will make this fight one of the best to target on the entire slate. While I do prefer Strickland personally, I will split my action to some degree as it’s still a closely lined fight with high-variance exchanges.
Fight Prediction: Strickland by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Fight Odds: Bueno Silva -156, Pennington +135
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Bueno Silva 8.6k, Pennington 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
The women’s vacant bantamweight title is up for grabs after Amanda Nunes announced her retirement when she defeated Irene Aldana last May.
Instead of Nunes, the fans are blessed with a bout between Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva. Let’s hope that this division can get an injection of new talent within the next year because frankly, it’s tough to fake excitement for this one.
Bueno Silva is actually coming off a submission win over Holly Holm, when she locked onto a choke early in the second round. That win was pretty surprising to me, given how physical Holm is and how much she has improved on the ground lately.
But it wasn’t her failed takedown that led to the Silva submission, and instead came from a sloppy clinch exchange where Holm left her head in poor position for too long.
Silva has now won six fights in the UFC, and five of them have come by submission. She is clearly a dangerous submission grappler and that’s arguably the best aspect in her game to date.
The problem is that Silva is not a good wrestler, offensively or defensively. In those five submission wins, Silva landed A TOTAL of two takedowns. Think about that.
Nearly every submission came from a situation in which Silva did not take down and get on top of her opponent. Most of them actually came from her opponent taking her down, and Silva locking up an armbar from guard.
She also has a kneebar over Lina Lansberg.
I’m just hesitant to buy into fighters like this. At the championship level, I am really to count on Silva’s wrestling being so blatantly terrible that her opponent gets her down, therefore giving Silva a realistic chance to win by submission? It’s gross.
To her credit, she’s opportunistic. And she did take Lina Lansberg down twice which was only two fights ago, so perhaps she will improve upon her offensive wrestling game. She she continue to attempt and land takedowns, my opinion on her game will change.
Silva isn’t completely one-dimensional though. She’s actually a decent and dangerous muay-thai fighter and can strike at a moderate pace.
Silva lands 4.16 sig. strikes per minute, which is good. Again, her problem is that she gets hit more than she lands at 4.71 per minute. At distance, MBS is landing 5.5 per minute and absorbing 6.7, which is just not good.
So there really isn’t an area of the game where I’d say I feel comfortable about Bueno Silva. She’s effective in all areas but very rarely controls the fight.
Raquel Pennington is the definition of toughness in this bantamweight division, though she has been at it for a long time and is likely worn down to some degree.
Pennington has fought in the UFC 17 times and she’s won 12 times, including six out of her last seven. And her only losses have come to Amanda Nunes, Jessica Andrade, Holly Holm 2x and GDR. That’s one hell of a career.
Pennington does rely on her toughness though, as her game isn’t very upside based. She’s not really a power threat on the feet and her submission grappling game is mediocre. Pennington has only won ITD three times, each of which was a choke.
She’s a competent round winner though and capable everywhere. She lands 4.02 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 3.34 per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate.
Pennington doesn’t wrestle much, only landing 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, and her defense is alright at 63 percent.
My issue here is that it’s just hard to get excited about Pennington’s game. She’s probably going to compete on the feet and an on the ground, and be there for 25 minutes. Is that enough to beat MBS? .. It might be..
As noted, Silva has only won one fight in the UFC not by sub. I can’t say I feel confident that she will take down Pennington at a high rate or submit her from her back. I can’t say I feel great about her cleaning up on a striking-based decision win either. But those are the potential outcomes.
I just expect Pennington to be there the whole time. If anything, Pennington might have the wrestling edge and she is probably competent enough to avoid dumb guard submissions.
On the feet, Pennington is way more experienced and she’s better defensively. I don’t think she’ll put Silva away but she could easily win rounds, and she probably has the cardio advantage too.
Silva is likely a little more effective and maybe gets the bigger moments. Maybe she can just outwork Pennington cleanly for five rounds. That would be her most impressive performance to date though, which I’m hesitant to buy into.
On DraftKings, I expect most will view this matchup as a clear secondary option behind the main event, though with five rounds, the winner will still carry upside.
Silva is going to rate out a lot better at 8.6k, with a +115 ITD line. I do think the majority of her ceiling equity comes in the form of a finish though, considering she does not wrestle. Striking volume over five rounds would give Silva a nice floor, but she’s not likely to surpass 100 points based on striking alone.
If Silva is going to project as a chalky option, I don’t think I can make any big investment in her this week. There are arguably a few fights priced cheaper than Silva in the mid-range which carry similar or higher fantasy upside.
And I just think there’s a pretty reasonable chance of Silva busting compared to her expectations here. While an early submission is possible, I think a lot of iterations of this fight play out for an extended period, which is even backed up by the odds at -125 to go Over 4.5 rounds.
If that’s the case, I just don’t love Silva’s fantasy ceiling, and I won’t eat the chalk on it. I will aim to have some exposure for her finishing ability but Silva will be more of a secondary option for me. If you feel differently and you’re very confident in Silva, that’s ok and you can still roster her at a moderate rate.
Pennington at 7.6k does interest me, though I will acknowledge she is a risky option and not a great ceiling target.
Pennington is only +575 to win ITD, which isn’t good, and it will hopefully contribute to a relatively low public ownership. She also isn’t guaranteed to wrestle. She might get submitted quickly.
But 7.6k does save a good amount of salary, and I do think there will be a significant ownership discrepancy between Silva and Pennington. And even if Pennington only wins a competitive decision, she could land 100-150 significant strikes.
Mayrna Moroz landed 139 strikes and two takedowns against Silva in three rounds. So over five rounds, I think Pennington could produce enough offense to reach the 90 point mark.
I’m not exceptionally confident in her and even if she wins, I don’t expect it to be dominant. Choosing other underdogs for finishing upside is perfectly fine.
Pennington has a nice floor/ceiling combo in a win, in my opinion, despite weak finishing ability, due to Silva’s poor defense in all areas. Add in the salary savings and leverage against Silva, and I think Pennington is a decent secondary target.
I’ll dip a little further down in pricing with a handful of lineups but Pennington will be a nice mix-in for me and I’m hopeful she can extend this matchup and make it competitive, which for 7.6k, would mean a decent result.
Fight Prediction: Pennington by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
Fight Odds: Malott -346, Magny +275
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Malott 9.3k, Magny 6.9k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Mike Malott will face an interesting test on Saturday when he takes on the veteran Neil Magny.
Malott is 10-1-1 professionally. He is a coach at team Alpha male and has had a weird professional career. He is 32 years old and has basically won all of his fights in the first round.
In fact, he has only had about 14 minutes of fighting in the last 8 years, as he has finished 5 of his 6 opponents in the first round and his other opponent in the second round. So it kind of is hard to know what to expect from him.
Malott quickly finished his opponent on the Contender Series and then knocked Mickey Gall out in round one in his UFC debut. Again, they were quick finishes so it has been hard to get a read on Malott. Malott then faced Yohan Lainesse and was able to quickly take him down and submit him. He then faced Adam Fugitt and was able to take him down a couple of times, and then eventually hurt him and guillotined him.
I do think Malott looks dangerous in general. He looks like a decently skilled striker and grappler. He can land some hard combinations and he has a decent shot and back taking game where he is capable of body triangles and submissions. He actually recently beat Trevin Giles in a grappling match which is honestly impressive.
However, Malott looks a bit green and I worry about him in general as there are just so many unknowns about him. He is very untested. I have seen him hurt in a couple of fights. Furthermore, he has only had one fight that extended outside of 6 minutes, which was a three-round draw in Bellator against Thomas Diagne.
Malott didn’t look very good in that fight. He showed some back taking ability. He showed some toughness and okay striking. He at least came forward for 15 minutes and fought hard.
However, he was hittable and just not all that great in general. At the same time, it was a very long time ago so there is a very reasonable chance that Malott is a lot better now.
Malott will be taking on UFC veteran Neil Magny. Magny is a decent fighter. He has a great gas tank, and he weaponizes it tremendously.
Magny lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.40 in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent. He puts on a pace and generally outlands his opponents. He isn’t super skilled, but his cardio is great.
Magny does lack power. He rarely hurts opponents and can be cracked occasionally by opponents with more firepower. He is VERY susceptible to leg kicks though and can get absolutely battered and neutralized by them. Ian Garry tore his legs up last fight.
Magny thrives at clinching opponents against the cage. He does a good job winning the position up against the cage and mixing in his strikes. He is also a capable wrestler landing 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, I don’t consider him a great wrestler or capable of outwrestling good wrestlers.
He can moreso take advantage of weaker grapplers, especially if he tires them with his pace. I do think he can work his clinch vs a lot of fighters though.
Magny is an okay defensive grappler but not a great one, and has been exposed on the mat a lot recently. He defends takedowns at 55 percent which is okay. He can generally work up well but strong grapplers can have success against him.
As far as this matchup goes, I am pretty uncomfortable with the near -400 ML of Malott. He is just so untested. If this fight gets extended and stays on the feet for whatever reason, Magny may have clear advantages.
Malott does look like a decent grappler though with a technical top game. So him landing takedowns and being able to threaten with submissions does seem reasonable, and that is why I will lean him here and will pick him to win. Perhaps his takedowns, physicality, and top game are just too much for Magny. Maybe he is just a better and more damaging striker than Magny too.
However, this is still not a price where you can bet Malott. I need to see more of him and this fight turning out more competitive than the line indicates would not be surprising at all.
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On DraftKings, Malott is priced at 9.3k, which is quite expensive and certainly puts him into the category of a fighter needing an early finish to stay competitive with the optimal.
He’s also priced next to Jasudavicius and Robertson, who both have similar grappling upside. So not only will Malott need to perform excellently and stop Magny, but he’ll have to outperform the other grapplers as well.
That is simply a challenging feat to pull off, though to be fair, it’s what both Jasudavicius and Robertson are tasked with as well.
Of the group, Jasudavicius is fighting the weakest defensive opponent. Robertson has the most straightforward grappling style. Malott is the best early finisher, but he’s also facing the best opponent of the group.
It’s just hard to know exactly how good Malott is. Even with four consecutive wins, his competition in the UFC has been awful. He’s not producing much striking volume and has not yet surpassed 30 strikes. He’s also defending takedowns at 0 percent himself.
Like, it’s just hard for me to imagine Malott is actually as good as the odds indicate he is in this spot against a very tested and proven opponent. This is the exact type of spot where people fade Magny and he wins.
At the same time, Magny’s not offensively potent, and Malott has proven to be in short samples. I do think Malott can land takedowns, and perhaps he can just turn that into a quick submission. Maybe he has knockout upside too.
He’s -195 to win ITD which is a great line, and he can be prioritized in this top range because of that. I am more skeptical than the odds, and I also think Magny has a decent style and chance to drag this fight out a bit.
Because of that, if Malott is projecting to be chalky, I am likely going to come in underweight, and target the other grapplers in this range more. That doesn’t mean it’s the correct strategy though, and I got screwed going after Tom Nolan last week.
I acknowledge Malott’s finishing upside and great metrics here, but it’s a real step up in competition and I am simply nervous he doesn’t meet expectations.
Magny is priced down to 6.9k and he is honestly viable, though it’s tough to recommend him with any urgency.
I think the best case scenario for Magny is that he weathers an early storm, and then starts to control Malott against the cage and in the clinch, getting a couple of takedowns along the way. That style does score well at times, and we’ve seen Magny score in the high 90s a few times in decisions.
At 6.9k, given potential leverage and the salary reduction, I do think Magny is at least in play. Especially in a scenario where you are desperate for salary relief, I have no problems with mixing in Magny.
With that said, he’s still +275 to win and +500 to win ITD, which aren’t great metrics comparatively on this slate. It’s probably ideal to pay up further to gain access to more win equity on a slate with many closely lined fights, which is primarily what I will do.
Fight Prediction: Malott by Guillotine, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Fight Odds: Curtis -183, Barriault +157
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Curtis 8.5k, Barriault 7.7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a blue collar matchup here in the middleweight division between Marc-Andre Barriault and Chris Curtis.
Barriault is a tough Canadian. Barriault lands 5.95 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.22 in return. He is a pressure striker who likes to walk down his opponents, dirty box in the clinch, and get in their face. He has tremendous cardio with an amazing pace. He can wear down opponents big time and start to overwhelm them.
I don’t consider Barriault a super slick or gifted striker, but he is decent and he definitely knows that his cardio is his main weapon. I also consider Barriault very durable. He was knocked out by Chidi Njokuani, but I consider that outcome a bit of an outlier and I still would have to consider his durability to be above average.
Barriault is an okay grappler, but he likes to clinch and dirty box more than actually land takedowns. He lands 0.24 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 1.5 takedowns per fight. So you can’t expect him to really land many takedowns. Barriault seems like a guy who is more likely to land takedowns if his opponents get tired, more than anything.
Barriault is a competent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at a decent 67 percent and scrambles up to his feet decently.
Barriault will be taking on Chris Curtis. I mostly consider Curtis a boxer. He has some decent hands, and I do respect his power. He has won by knockout several times in the UFC, including against Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, and Joaquin Buckley. He is also a tough guy and has only been knocked out once in his career.
I still don’t love Curtis’ defense though. He lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute which is good but he absorbs 6.30 and only defends strikes at 54 percent. I mean the guy dropped a striking round to Rodolfo Vieira. He conceded 83 distance strikes to him which just isn’t good. Curtis can be hit. Yes, Curtis landed 104 in return and won the fight. However, he mostly had his success once Vieira gassed. I wasn’t all that impressed.
I just think Curtis is going to need knockouts to win clearly. If he wins by striking based decision, the fights will probably be close. I do think he looked a bit better than I expected against Kelvin Gastelum. It was a bit of a back and forth war and Curtis was outlanded 83-70, and rightfully lost the decision. Curtis did have his moments though and landed some big shots at times.
Curtis doesn’t offensively grapple all that much. He hasn’t even attempted a takedown in the UFC. I consider his first layer TDD pretty good, and he currently defends takedowns at 92 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, my guess is this stays standing. Neither guy wrestles offensively much and Curtis has good TDD. So we will likely get a striking war.
On the feet, I honestly expect this to be very competitive. I think the current ML of Curtis at -190 is a bit wide and that this is probably closer to a 50 50 fight. I could really see either guy winning. Curtis may be more slick and skilled, and a bit more dangerous. However, Barriault is very urgent and I like the pace and pressure he puts on in fights. Both guys also seem tough.
I think this is going to be close and picking either guy is reasonable. We likely just get competitive exchanges between two durable fighters where a random knockout is tough to call. I do think this could be exciting though with a high pace.
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On DraftKings, Curtis will be a boom or bust, knockout dependent fighter at 8.5k.
I am very biased AGAINST Curtis, if you didn’t know. I do not like the guy. He never improves, he complains, and now he’s blocked me on Twitter.
So am I personally likely to end up with a ton of Curtis exposure? No. But Barriault does absorb strikes at a pretty high rate, and he’s been KOd early before. That’s about all you need to know to include some Curtis exposure if you want.
Curtis is +215 to win ITD here which is fine. I don’t think it’s a great spot to take a major stand against the field. He won’t be super chalky. It’s a risk to go much overweight because of Curtis very limited path to a ceiling, but these two fighters will exchange, so I wouldn’t want to have none of him either.
A mediocre, boom or bust option at the price that I’ll mix in.
Barriault at 7.7k can win, especially at home in Canada, but I think his upside is limited. He isn’t likely to have much or any wrestling success, and I’m not sure he will just land strikes on Curtis at will either.
Even if he lands 100 strikes and wins a decision, that’s 70 DK points. That might be a ceiling case too, which doesn’t excite me for 7.7k. His ITD line is +290 and I suppose he has a knockout chance as well, but I don’t consider it a great one as Curtis is very durable.
For 7.7k, you’re at least getting some win equity here, with some high-variance exchanges. I don’t mind Barriault and at least we know he’ll fight hard for 15 minutes, in front of a home crowd. But I am a bit skeptical of his DK ceiling so he’ll be a secondary option for me at best and I’ll likely prioritize some other options below the mid-range.
Fight Prediction: Curtis by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev
Fight Odds: Evloev -194, Allen +165
Odds to Finish: +240
DraftKings Salaries: Evloev 8.7k, Allen 7.5k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have always liked Movsar Evloev’s game a lot, and I am excited to see him back in the cage this weekend against Arnold Allen.
Evloev is simply a good fighter. He is very well-rounded with no real holes in his game.
Evloev is a solid fundamental striker with good boxing and a functional jab. He lands 4.57 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.74 in return. He is also defensively sound and defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. He doesn’t have the best power, but overall I think he is quite good on the feet. He also has good cardio and can fight at a hard striking pace for 15 minutes.
Evloev is also a fantastic wrestler and can keep up wrestling for 15 minutes. He lands 4.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts around 9 takedowns per fight. He is fantastic at chaining together takedown attempts and is aggressive and tenacious in pursuing them. He isn’t a great submission grappler but he is good at mat returning and riding the back.
Evloev also is a pretty good defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at a decent 71 percent and can generally scramble up well.
Evloev will be taking on Arnold Allen who was last seen in action losing a decision to Max Holloway in a valiant effort.
Allen is mostly a striker although he will mix in occasional grappling as well. Allen has good fundamental boxing and straight punches. He can also mix in the occasional kicks, but I consider his hands his primary striking weapons.
Allen lands 3.34 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.86 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. Allen controls range very well and he is very hard to hit. He doesn’t have a ton of power but he has a couple of knockdowns and one knockout in the UFC.
My biggest concern with Allen is his overall output. His striking offense is just so low. 3.34 significant strikes per minute is just not enough. I just feel like Allen is at risk of not clearly winning striking rounds.
Allen does at least limit strikes so even though he doesn’t land a lot, he is never really losing clear which is good. He is almost like a neutralizer like his countryman Leon Edwards. These types are really hard to be confident in but they also are skilled and generally outperform their metrics. I generally struggle picking their fights confidently.
Allen is actually a decent grappler. He lands 1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and has two wins by guillotine in the UFC. I don’t think his control top game is great, and I don’t think he will take and hold down good defensive grapplers. However, he is capable of spot takedowns here and there. Allen is okay defensively as a grappler. He defends takedowns at 76 percent.
However, the only two real grapplers he has faced were Mads Burnell and Makwan Amirikhani who landed 6 and 4 takedowns on him, and each obtained over 5 minutes of control.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to go with Evloev to win because he has more ways to win rounds. There is a good chance that Evloev just attempts a handful of takedowns and lands 3-5, and obtains mild to moderate top time. That could be the difference in the fight.
On the feet, I expect this to be competitive. I think both guys are skilled strikers. Evloev has a pace advantage while Allen may have a range and power advantage. I don’t have huge opinions on who will win those exchanges.
I will pick Evloev to win though because I think his takedowns could separate him on the scorecards if striking exchanges are competitive.
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On DraftKings, Evloev is clearly the preferred side given his grappling equity, but he’ll rate out a bit better as a floor option at 8.7k.
Evloev is only +650 to win ITD, which is really bad and the main reason to consider avoiding him at this price.
However, Evloev is still AVERAGING 105.7 DraftKings points throughout his career, which have come from seven three-round decisions. His low point has been 66, 84 and 92, while he’s topped out at 120, 130 and 138. He landed zero takedowns in that 66 point performance.
Essentially, the ITD equity barely matters. It’s arguable Evloev still has the most upside on the entire slate, as I’m unsure anyone else is really capable of reaching 130 points.
It’s a similar situation to what we had with Ricky Simon last week, though Evloev is a better fighter and this is a better matchup than what Simon had. Evloev, at worst, is going to project extremely well given his grappling equity and he’ll be a great floor and cash game option for 8.7k.
At best, you can consider jamming Evloev in, and hoping he lands 5+ takedowns en route to 90-100+ DK points. For me personally, I tend to lean on targeting wrestlers aggressively because it’s the easiest way to score, and I will likely have moderate exposure to Evloev this week. I also am a huge fan of the guy and have always targeted him aggressively, so I am a bit biased.
The detracting point of view would maybe come if Evloev projects to be chalk, which I’m unsure will be the case. Or that Allen is a talented fighter and won’t force exchanges. All of Evloev’s points will need to come from grappling dominance, which I suppose is not a guarantee.
Allen is also potentially capable of hurting Evleov at range, who has been known to box here and there and can be hit.
I don’t think Evloev is a lock to win or a lock for 100+ points, but I like his grappling potential and price tag and I’ll be on him personally.
Allen at 7.5k is only someone I would use as a hedge, just given the situation.
I mean I do think Allen could win this fight, but he’s going to produce a very low volume of strikes, and likely no takedowns. We’ve seen Allen put up pitiful scores in wins like 57, 59 and 59. Now he’s fighting an opponent who will likely hold him down for periods of time which just contributes to an even lower floor.
I probably don’t want 60 points in a win from Allen on this slate, even if I was guaranteed it. Perhaps for the leverage but otherwise no thank you.
Allen really needs a knockout here to exceed value and contend for the optimal. He is +315 to win ITD which is actually pretty decent. Evloev has been hurt before, so it’s not impossible.
But it’s just a very boom or bust type of play and there are many other dogs I feel better about. Outside of using a small percentage of Allen to hedge or as leverage, he’s not going to be a big factor in my portfolio this week.
Fight Prediction: Evloev by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield
Fight Odds: Katona -200, Armfield +170
Odds to Finish: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Katona 8.8k, Armfield 7.4k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Brad Katona’s a two-time TUF winner now in his second UFC stint, where he made good on his re-debut back in August – he’s 3-2 in the UFC and 13-2 as a pro. Garrett Armfield dropped his UFC debut back in 2022 as a short notice fill in, but bounced back nicely in August picking up his first UFC victory – he’s 9-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Katona comes from a karate background but was also a member of the Canadian national boxing team as well. He’s also not the biggest guy out there, but plays within the mid-range to the lip of the pocket.
His work rate has kind of been all over the board, as I’ve seen him be higher output in certain affairs but lower in others. But he’s got some good flurries into the pocket and will generally keep a higher guard after throwing strikes.
However, he hasn’t shown to be very dangerous on the feet, having only 1 KO in his pro career which came in his debut back in 2014. Katona’s more of just a frustrating kind of striker that’s looking to pepper.
In his defense, he’s never been KO’d in his pro career, so he has shown to be durable as well, but he has gotten clocked a few times.
His fight with Valiev was pretty close to where you could make an argument for either guy, but Katona did fine on the feet and Valiev’s a respectable striker.
The recent outing against Gibson was also competitive, but Katona’s cardio proved to be a good difference maker and was able to hurt Gibson later in the fight.
Overall, Katona’s respectable on the feet and can adapt to his opponents.
Armfield’s a fighter that works in a pressure boxing-based style.
He’s got very consistent volume, good hand speed, sound hooks in tight and will dig the body. The majority of his opponents just haven’t had an answer to his pressure and power, scoring KOs in 6 of his 9 pro wins.
I actually thought Armfield made a pretty decent account of himself in his short notice debut against a very big David Onama, who had 5” of height and 4” of reach on him – Onama only out landed him 27 to 20 at distance with both guys having success.
But you could tell that the length of Onama did start to become an issue for him later in the round and Armfield only landed at a 29% clip.
Defensively, he will throw a bit of caution to the wind in the pocket and can overextend on shots at times, but he’s shown some respectable striking defense.
He’s also never been KO’d in his pro career but hasn’t fought many good strikers which needs to be noted.
Overall, I largely like what I’ve seen from Armfield on the feet as a scrappy dude and feel he’ll fare well standing at the UFC level.
How it plays out: The stand-up should be fun here as both guys present some problems to each other. The shinier pro for Armfield is the power he brings, and he will be one of the bigger hitters that Katona has fought to date. The pro for Katona would be his work rate as he will adapt to the higher pace of Armfield, but also won’t slow down.
That’s a primary concern I have for Armfield as he’s only won 1 fight on the cards in his pro career – the second longest fight he’s won finished around the 6-minute mark. But ultimately when they’re fresh, I do think Armfield’s a bit better.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Katona does also come from a wrestling background and is a BJJ Black Belt.
He’s definitely had success with the wrestling throughout his career, but it’s also been matchup dependent in terms of how much he’s pursuing – meaning he’ll be much more consistent to go to it if he feels he does have the edge there and is finding initial success.
He’s got 3 wins via submission with 1 being over Bryce Mitchell which was a good W – that was earlier on in Mitchell’s career as well though.
Sometimes he’ll be aggressive in looking to pass but in other situations, he’s fine to just lay and pray or pepper within the guard.
Defensively, he has been outwrestled before, specifically in his first pro loss to Merab – no shame.
But he’s been taken down multiple times in numerous other fights as well – to Katona’s credit, he’s shown a stronger get up game so he’s usually not being controlled for extensive periods of time even in the fights he’s conceded TDs.
He’s also never been submitted as a pro.
Overall, the ground is semi up and down with Katona, but it’s generally been a positive for him.
I’ve read in certain places that Armfield wrestled collegiately but I haven’t been able to confirm that or where he actually wrestled. He does come from a base wrestling background though and is a BJJ Purple Belt as of 2021.
Despite that background, Armfield does prefer to stand and strike by and large, but we have seen him mix wrestling into a handful of his fights.
He’s shown to be strong from top positions and has a handful of submissions but the guys he’s been able to outwrestle/outgrapple have been fighters of a very low tier.
Defensively, the floor is how he’s lost all 3 of his professional fights.
He got outwrestled on the regionals by Ronnie Lawrence back in 2019, but Ronnie Lawrence out-wrestles the large majority of his opponents in fairness.
He was winning the bulk of the Vogel fight standing but got a bit tired, made a small mistake, got his back taken and was submitted.
Somewhat of a similar story against Onama where Onama was able to find his way on top in the second, work into an arm triangle and finish.
But it was by no means “grappling domination” in either of those last two fights.
So the floor has been up and down with Armfield but I do feel he’s a capable wrestler/grappler and the guys he’s lost to on the floor have been forgivable.
How it plays out: I feel both guys have the wrestling ability to take each other down but I’d be less optimistic about Armfield holding Katona down than vice versa. When both guys are fresh and early, I feel we largely see stand up exchanges.
Going back to the potential cardio issue of Armfield though, I can see Katona’s ground game opening up more potentially down the stretch in an extended fight. Even if Armfield’s able to have earlier success on Katona, I’m not sure how smart of a gameplan it would be for Armfield to wrestle aggressively because Katona is going to make him work a lot to keep him there.
Fun fight. I’ve always respected the game of Katona because he’s an intelligent, well-rounded fighter and a proven winner at the end of the day with technically a 17-2 record if you include his TUF fights. I’ve also generally liked Armfield as he’s also a well-rounded guy too who’s dangerous.
But I ultimately see this fight coming down to cardio as Katona’s just a more proven minute winning commodity over the course of 15 minutes and has never been finished. But similar to the Gibson fight, I do anticipate Armfield to look good early and compete here. Katona via Decision is the pick.
—
On DraftKings, I am fairly interested in this matchup for pace purposes and it’s one of the fights I’m most looking forward to watching.
Katona is priced at 8.8k and I expect he’ll be the more popular guy, coming off a very impressive win over Cody Gibson that scored 97 DK points. But perhaps not, as he hasn’t typically been a ceiling target and is a little expensive on a slate with big names.
Armfield just scored 119 points in an early KO win and is now 7.4k. He won’t be ultra chalk but he should get some love.
I think for me, I just see a very strong floor from the winner of this matchup. Katona is capable of fighting at a high pace and I think Armfield will pressure early. It’s going to lead to a lot of exchanges and I think there’s a decent chance this one ends inside the distance, despite that mark only being +125.
Katona probably needs to wrestle here though to reach a DK ceiling, which is the challenge. 160 sig. strikes didn’t even get him to 100 DK points. And there’s no guarantee of wrestling, or of a finish at +205 ITD. For that reason, it’s totally fine if you’d rather play Evloev or whoever else in this range.
I think I’m willing to use Katona personally though. I do think wrestling could come into play later in the fight, and I think Katona has some submission upside as well. Maybe he doesn’t carry an elite ceiling but he’s somewhat affordable compared to the top tier, and I like his floor/pace potential here.
Armfield at 7.4k interests me for the salary savings and pacing/finishing upside. He is only +420 to win ITD though, which suggests a minimal chance. These guys aren’t going to rate out extremely well because of the ITD metrics.
Armfield may have success early though. He has power, and he can wrestle. I don’t think he’ll ultimately win the fight but he’s dangerous enough early, to the point where I can’t fade him at this price. Like, there’s a reasonable chance this fight is a war for the first two rounds, and I don’t want to be in a situation where I’m sitting on zero Armfield in that case, even if he loses.
So I consider Armfield a reasonable secondary target, especially for the price. There’s others I feel better about winning and/or winning inside the distance. But I see a decent floor here in what could be a competitive/fun fight.
Fight Prediction: Katona by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Charles Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson
Fight Odds: Jourdain -209, Woodson +177
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Jourdain 9k, Woodson 7.2k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Charles Jourdain’s had an up and down UFC run but is coming off back-to-back wins and entering his prime years at 28– he’s 6-5-1 in the UFC and 15-6-1 as a pro.
Sean Woodson’s a Contender Series alum who’s by and large had a decent run outside of a few blemishes – he’s 4-1-1 in the UFC and 10-1-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Jourdain has shown to be an exciting guy and one of the more dynamic strikers around that Top 15 range. He’s fast, explosive and can fight out of both stances but prefers southpaw.
In that, he’s got power as well, finishing 9 of his 15 pro wins via strikes – he’s also got 6 knockdowns in the UFC.
One of Jourdain’s best components are his chopping leg kicks, he’ll tepe the body, will go upstairs and can mix it up in the clinch with elbows and knees. In the UFC, his work rate has been consistently high, landing 5.71 SLpM at 49% — great numbers.
He actually set a divisional round record of strikes in the 3rd against Burgos where he landed 84 significant strikes – unreal – that fight should have been a draw in my opinion.
Jourdain ultimately excels most when he can be the guy going forward and dictating the exchanges. Defensively, he eats 4.21 SApM and defends at 58%.
But he’s had some back foot struggles and with guys who can match/exceed his work rate.
Additionally, some guys have been able to have some bigger moments/periodic exchange success on him – most notably against Choi and Culibao – he has had some slower starts as well.
Jourdain is a guy who will keep a higher guard so he will block a lot of punches on his arms but unfortunately, that shelling type of defense doesn’t always optically look great even if you are blocking the shots – a lot of them tend to get through as well.
He has been dropped twice in the UFC to boot and hurt on other occasions as well, despite never being KO’d through 22 pro fights.
Overall, he’s a talented striker with positive differentials both significantly and at distance but we’ve also just seen a wide array of Jourdain striking performances making the stand up in his fights tricky to assess.
Woodson comes from a boxing background and has a 46-3 amateur record in the discipline.
He made the move to MMA full time back in 2016 and has realized quite a bit of success. Woodson’s also probably one of the biggest featherweights I’ve seen, standing 6’2” with a 78” reach — pretty unreal how he makes the weight class.
He pushes a high pace in fights as well landing 5.41 SLpM at 46%. He’ll flow between stances and has some crisp, fast hands.
He hasn’t been the biggest power threat in terms of his hands as he works more of a “Diaz Brother” style of he’s just going to touch you and keep hands in your face.
We did see him put it on Anglin more recently though and finish him with body shots – additionally he dropped Erosa so it’s not as if he has pillows in his hands though.
But because he’s so lanky, he’s got sneaky good knees up the middle which he doesn’t have to bring up that much given his size – he’s clipped a few guys with these.
Defensively, he’s largely been pretty good being able to roll with punches, but Erosa did land over 100 significant strikes on him in that fight – I do largely attribute that to the fact that Woodson took the fight on two weeks’ notice and gassed halfway through.
We did see Saldana significantly hurt him early as well, and would have most likely finished if he didn’t throw the illegal knee – so Woodson isn’t invincible at the same time.
Overall, Woodson’s length and pace is going to make him a unique matchup for most guys, but Woodson still hasn’t fought a very strong strength of schedule.
How it plays out: Woodson’s going to realize a healthy size advantage here as he does in every fight, with 5” in height and 9” in reach. A big factor of the stand up is who is going to be the aggressor here. I would say Woodson fights off the back foot better than Jourdain. But Jourdain is also the best striker that Woodson has fought to date who I’d also give a power and kicking advantage to. I ultimately see Woodson getting off to a good start, and probably winning the first round. But then I see the pressure from Jourdain starting to build to take over the fight.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Jourdain’s a BJJ Black Belt with 5 pro wins via submission – 2 of which have come in his last 3 wins, via guillotine – 1 of which came over a fellow Black Belt in Ricardo Ramos – impressive.
However, in the UFC, he’s only attempted 6 TDs (largely unsuccessfully) in 2.5 hours of cage time, so wrestling isn’t something you can really bank on from him – his grappling success is generally reactionary.
Defensively, he’s had some struggles as he’s been taken down 23 times, only stuffing at 47%, but he hasn’t really been extensively controlled to his credit outside of the second round against Burgos from a standing body triangle, and a pocket of each round against Wood and early by Ramos.
This is largely because he’s scrambly and will look to threaten subs with his longer frame. Guys just don’t want to mess around with it, so they tend to get out of there when he threatens, but when guys want to hold him down in general, they do have issues.
He was submitted late via d’arce choke by Erosa though, where he got a bit complacent and made a small mistake.
Nonetheless, in what tends to be competitive striking affairs for Jourdain, him giving up TDs is still an issue, despite showing some dangerous front chokes and a decent get up game.
Given the boxing base of Woodson, the wrestling/grappling has given him some issues in the past.
He stuffs TDs at 83% which is very good, but he’s gotten his back taken on 3 occasions in the past, and did get caught in a d’arce choke by Erosa late.
He’s also gotten stuck on the fence at times as well, most notably against Zalal.
Offensively, we haven’t seen much from Woodson on the floor until his last fight with Buzukja where he pursued the wrestling in the back half of the fight, going 4/5 on TDs and racking up 6 minutes of control.
He won his 1st pro fight via guillotine and threatened Saldana with a buggy choke, but traditionally Woodson hasn’t shown much offensive upside as guys are trying to wrestle him and he wants to box.
Maybe the Buzukja fight is an omen that we’ll see more wrestling from Woodson in the future, but it is still hard to project at this point.
Overall, this is currently the biggest hole in Woodson’s game and despite largely being defensively responsible on the ground, he still does have a poor tendency to give his back to stand.
How it plays out: Both guys don’t wrestle much so it’s hard to bank on TDs from either, but Woodson does have the better TDD on paper and coming off a win where wrestling was a component. However, I think Jourdain is a better submission grappler. I honestly don’t think the ground plays much of a factor in this fight and these guys stand and strike.
Interesting fight that I don’t have a super strong opinion on as Woodson is a tough fighter to benchmark. Going back to what I said with the striking, I think Woodson starts off stronger, but Jourdain takes over the fight down the stretch landing the more damaging shots to earn a decision or later stoppage.
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On DraftKings, I actually prefer Woodson here at 7.2k and he’s among my favorite underdogs based on the price.
I think there’s a reasonable chance this fight is competitive, and I think Woodson can win it.
Fighting against a home crowd favorite in Jourdain does pose a problem though, and I don’t think Woodson is likely to win this easily.
But he’s way bigger than Jourdain. With a nine inch reach advantage. And he’s pretty good at boxing from distance, and mixing in leg kicks and stuff. Jourdain absorbs strikes at a high rate so I think Woodson has a pretty high floor on volume landed.
Also, it’s possible Woodson can land takedowns here. I agree with Luke that Jourdain is the more dangerous submission grappler, and we might not see wrestling from either side. But there’s some equity here.
It’s also just the pricing. I think 7.2k is a pretty cheap number for a fight that could easily be 50/50 ish. Woodson may project as a better floor option than a ceiling option given his +400 ITD line, and so if you’d prefer to target finishers, I understand.
I’m personally of the belief that Woodson is being undervalued in this spot so I’ll be happy to take the savings and mix him in as a nice secondary option.
Jourdain is priced up to 9k and I don’t think I can pay that number. The real upside, I guess, would come from this being a high-paced matchup in which Jourdain can find an early finish.
If these two can exchange a lot early and Jourdain wins by knockout, he has a high ceiling. And he’s +175 to win ITD which is OK. I think he could win by KO or by submission to be honest.
But he almost never wrestles so we can’t project many takedowns here. I think he hits harder than Woodson but easily landing strikes on a man that tall and long won’t be easy.
Jourdain probably scores well in a win given the pace and finishing ability but I think there’s significant bust risk here too. The grapplers project better for me and I’m more comfortable chasing their ceilings, so I’ll likely be quite under on Jourdain this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Jourdain by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Tavares
Fight Odds: Sidey -181, Tavares +155
Odds to Finish: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Sidey 8.9k, Tavares 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
We have an ultra-rare circumstance here as both Serhiy Sidey and Ramon Tavares will make their UFC debuts on Saturday.
What’s rare about this – is that Sidey and Tavares actually fought on Dana White’s Contender Series in September, and Sidey has not competed against anyone else since.
In that matchup, Sidey dropped Tavares early in the fight and the ref jumped in for the stoppage, but it was a bit early. Tavares came back to DWCS and won by knockout in 29 seconds in October, so that’s why the pair are set to rematch this weekend.
Sidey is 10-1 professionally and fighting out of Ontario, Canada, so he’ll be the home crowd favorite.
He’s won six of his fights by knockout and two more by submission. His only loss came by decision in 2020.
I did watch that loss, and he was essentially outwreslted for the entire fight. His opponent got takedowns, control, and threatened with the back and arm-triangles.
It doesn’t give me great confidence that Sidey can maintain a high win percentage in the UFC. But I suppose he’s decent enough as a scrapper, which is what I would characterize him as.
Sidey is long, and he’ll be the taller, longer man in this matchup against Tavares. He is capable of striking at a high pace, and he even went five rounds in 2022 no problem.
I don’t view Sidey as an elite athlete, or power striker, or really a major threat in any capacity though. He’s a guy who’s relatively tough, with good cardio, and who’s willing to throw down for an extended period of time.
Yeah he can mix up wrestling here and there but I don’t view it as a major path to victory for him at the UFC level. I think he’s most capable in winning rounds on the feet, and perhaps he can hurt opponents here and there with attrition.
Ramon Tavares is 9-2 professionally, and he has five wins by knockout and three by submission. He’s actually fought some notable names in Martin Day and Charles Bennett, though his level of competition still wouldn’t be qualified as amazing.
Tavares is mostly a boxer, and he has power in his hands. He’s a bit smaller and shorter than Sidey, but he is a bit more physical and probably the better athlete overall.
Even though Tavares likely doesn’t have a major ceiling in the UFC, I think he’s mildly dangerous and I wouldn’t be surprised if he can hurt some guys at the UFC level.
The issue is really whether he has enough depth in his game to win in other ways besides knockout, and my guess is no.
I saw him land one nice takedown and turn it into a RNC on the regionals, and he also jumped on a guillotine against Day. He’s not incapable on the mat. But he’s not likely to pursue wrestling often and I would guess he’s not the greatest defensive wrestler either.
But he can stand in the pocket and throw hard left hands. His other loss besides the one to Sidey also came by first-round KO, so that makes me nervous. My guess is that he’s not extremely durable, which will contribute to a lack of ceiling as well.
As far as the matchup, my guess is these guys stand and trade. Either side can mix it up with wrestling, but I don’t think either side is a real quality wrestler and both would probably rather choose to strike.
Tavares hits harder of the two, but he’ll need to work his way into the pocket to have consistent success. Sidey is probably better from distance and I think he’s a little more diverse in his striking game.
I don’t think Tavares has terrible cardio but of the two, I would have to favor Sidey over an extended period of time. In Canada, I suppose I lean toward Sidey overall, though not with any real confidence.
Tavares is capable of hurting Sidey on the inside but I’m a little skeptical of his durability and without damage, I’m unsure he can win consistently. It could very realistically be a competitive striking fight for a while though
On DraftKings, I have mild interest in this matchup though it feels very risky to me, and somewhat boom or bust.
Sidey is priced at 8.9k, and I am not very confident that he will perform well enough to be optimal. I mean, he likely needs an early TKO. Granted, he secured that in the first matchup but I’m hesitant to believe that means he will certainly find that result in the rematch.
And as we talked about, this guy can fight five rounds. He’s not necessarily a guy dependent on early finishes. His pace and floor will be moderate because of that, but I’m less certain he comes out here and knocks Tavares out quickly.
Sidey is +135 to win ITD, which is fine. He’s a good tournament option in more mid-range based combos, where you can’t pay up to the very top tier of pricing. In that sense, dropping down and using Sidey for finishing upside is totally fine.
I would like to mix him in but I do not expect to take any real stand against the field here.
Tavares at 7.3k probably needs a knockout to be optimal, though I suppose getting a high-paced striking decision wouldn’t crush you at this price point.
He’s +175 to win ITD, which is actually really great for this price point. If Tavares is not going to be popular, which might be the case given he got knocked out against Sidey on DWCS, then this may be a good opportunity to come in overweight.
I mean, at the least, Tavares is a capable power puncher. He is cheap. His ITD line is great.
I don’t think he’s a great fighter and he won’t carry any real floor, but he does seem to have a legitimate ceiling in this matchup. I will probably mix him in as a secondary target but I don’t hate getting a little bit over the field here given the metrics, price and fighting style.
Fight Prediction: Sidey by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana
Fight Odds: Robertson -300, Viana +244
Odds to Finish: -175
DraftKings Salaries: Robertson 9.1k, Viana 7.1k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun fight here between one of my favorites in Gillian Robertson, who will be taking on Polyana Viana.
Grappling is all Robertson really does, and she is pretty much only going to win fights by submission or by three-round decision with top time.
Robertson’s striking is not very good. She lands 2.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.21 in return. She defends strikes at 55 percent. The purpose of her striking is just to limit striking engagements and set up her takedowns. She isn’t going to win many rounds on the feet.
Robertson’s takedowns are pretty decent for WMMA. She has a good single leg and a lot of takedown diversity. She lands 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at a 41 percent rate.
Once she gets on top, she is very dangerous and skilled as a submission grappler. Her passing stats are off the charts. I won’t go too much into detail with them, however, she basically gets a pass or two for every takedown that she lands. So she is very capable of getting to dominant positions like the back, and locking in submissions.
I have never liked Robertson’s physicality. She sometimes has major issues when she goes against strong girls. Santos and Maverick were able to neutralize Robertson because they were much more physical than her.
However, she looks a lot bigger and stronger at strawweight and I think the drop in weight class was a great decision by her. So perhaps physicality will not be as big of an issue for her going forward.
One thing people seem to forget is that Robertson is not a good defensive wrestler. She defends takedowns at 43 percent and isn’t really interested in defending takedowns. It makes sense because she wants the fight on the mat anyway which is fine.
However, on her back, she can actually be controlled and her get ups are not great. So she is prone to being controlled on the mat herself, which is something that people probably overlook. Robertson can attack with good armbars off her back. However, she needs to be in top position to win fights, and I don’t like that she can be controlled on the mat.
Robertson will be taking on Polyana Viana. Viana is kind of a striker/guard player. Viana lands 3.19 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.63 in return. She defends strikes at 55 percent. I actually think Viana is semi-underrated as a striker. I am not saying she is a good one. However, she should be able to outstrike the lower tier strikers of this division. She also has some sneaky power and recently knocked out Jinh Yu Frey.
Viana has a brown belt in BJJ and won the world championships in BJJ in a lower belt division years back. I still don’t completely trust her BJJ considering she was guard subbed by Veronica Macedo, which is honestly just embarrassing. She also recently got submitted by Iasmin Lucindo where she kind of just looked bad.
What I don’t like about Viana is that she doesn’t have strong offensive or defensive wrestling. She has only landed 4 takedowns in the UFC and defends takedowns at a poor 43 percent. She almost willingly accepts being taken down.
Viana generally has success with her grappling by playing guard and obtaining guard submissions. I do think she has a good guard and can continue to land armbars / triangles occasionally and limit advances of position.
However, she lost to Aldrich by playing guard, not obtaining a submission, and getting controlled. The same thing happened vs Tabatha Ricci. She is just going to lose rounds off her back if her opponents can stifle the submissions which will continue to happen more and more as she faces more seasoned grapplers. She still has won 3 UFC fights with a submission though, and it is a path to victory for her in general.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to pick Robertson to win. She is just so much more likely to land takedowns and obtain top position. Robertson is actually really good when fighting someone with weak tdd, and that is exactly what she has here. My guess is Robertson can generally land takedowns when she wants to, and rack up a ton of control time. I also think she can probably pass guard and get dominant positions.
Maybe Viana can randomly get a finish like a knockout or an armbar, but it is an outcome that I am willing to fade. Also, if for whatever reason this stays standing, I do think Viana is the better striker. I just don’t think this will stay standing though because Viana’s tdd is so bad, so Robertson is the rightful pick.
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On DraftKings, Robertson is priced up to 9.1k and is a somewhat intriguing fantasy option given her grappling dependence.
Robertson has scored 96 DK points or more in each of her nine UFC victories, though only one of those came in a decision. So although she may be more dependent on a finish than we’d like to reach a DK ceiling, her style is going to lead to a lot of those in wins.
This matchup is arguably more challenging for Robertson to secure the finish, because Viana excels on the ground. However, Viana has still been submitted a couple times and I just don’t rate her very highly. While it’s not a walk in the park, Robertson could find a submission and she’s +130 to win ITD.
More importantly, Viana has terrible TDD so Robertson has a moderate takedown projection here. It seems quite likely that Robertson will land some takedowns, earn lots of control and win a decision, or find a submission if she wins at all. That’s going to lead to a decent score and it’s just a question of whether she’s optimal.
My other hesitation is that despite a great FLOOR in DK scores, Robertson has only topped 110 points once. So she’s just scoring between 96-106 in nearly every fight. At 8.1k I love it. At 9.1k I am a bit scared.
I think Robertson is fine this week and I do think you should have some exposure to her based on her grappling style. But an absolute smash score is far from a guarantee, and so pivoting to Malott or Jas or whoever else is totally acceptable as well.
Viana is priced at 7.1k and she’s a very annoying type of target who I personally won’t be playing.
I phrase it that way because Viana is the type who will be losing for seven minutes and then lock up an armbar from her back for 85 points at a cheap price tag. Otherwise, she’s a mediocre striker who will probably be getting controlled. It’s not an exciting target.
But Robertson is likely to land takedowns, and get on top, giving Viana some opportunity to get a “lucky” submission. Robertson was submitted from guard by Bueno Silva so it’s not an impossible outcome.
Viana is actually +275 to win ITD which is really strong for this price tag too.
For all these reasons, you could consider some exposure to Viana given her finishing upside and price tag. But her floor is extremely low and she doesn’t have a style that I typically choose to invest in.
For 7.1k, she’s still cheap enough to use as a low-end secondary target if you want.
Fight Prediction: Robertson by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson
Fight Odds: Lainesse -145, Patterson +125
Odds to Finish: -650
DraftKings Salaries: Lainesse 8.4k, Patterson 7.8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Yohan Lainesse is a Contender Series alum that’s struggled so far in the UFC and is on the last fight of his deal – he’s 1-2 in the promotion and 9-2 as a pro. Sam Patterson’s a fellow Contender Series alum who had a rough debut back in March of last year, getting KO’d in a minute. He’ll be moving up to 170 lbs. for the first time in his career – he’s 10-2-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Lainesse works more in the mid-range and in flurries where he’s shown bigger power components, finishing 6 of his 9 pro wins via strikes – one of which was a slick flying knee.
However, I don’t think his overall striking is really anything special.
He tends to load a lot of what he throws so it can be predictable, and he can be caught just overextending/off-balance as well.
Despite fighting in CFFC pre-UFC, he hadn’t fought many good strikers and even in his two outings pre-DWCS, he got hit clean pretty consistently.
Cutts is a tough guy who he was able to get out of there, which was somewhat impressive but Cutts had some amount of success in space as well – Cutts is a grappler.
Then other guys have largely given him range based fights where he’s been able to lead the dance.
Something else I noticed as well is that he starts breathing pretty heavily in the second rounds of his fights (assuming they get there) — stuff he throws tends to become more labored as well.
He falls more into the “quasi effective gasser” category where despite being tired, he’ll still throw things and attempt TDs, but he’s clearly labored past the halfway mark of fights.
He did KO Burlinson on DWCS which was a good W for him, considering Burlinson is a respectable prospect – however, I don’t think a KO from Lainesse was a ridiculously high percentage outcome if that fight’s ran back 10 times.
We saw him have a good start against Green in his debut, and he also dropped Green early in the 2nd but really Lainesse just gassed himself loading his shots, trying to grapple/finish Green and then Green essentially just decided to start doing things and finished the fight promptly after, around the halfway mark.
Little happened in the Weeks fight where you could realistically have scored that fight for either guy, but Lainesse probably edged on landing the singular bigger shots.
Overall, I generally view Lainesse as more of a brute, powerish dependent fighter standing, with questionable pacing at times and not great cardio.
Despite moving up in weight, Patterson won’t be an undersized guy at 170 in terms of length, as he stands 6’3” with a 78” reach.
He’s a grappler by base but has shown good work in the stand up as well.
He’s not an uber volume guy and more so falls into the methodical, pick you apart type of category.
As a result, he’s not super flashy but does the basics well in utilizing long straight shots, good calf kicks, and he will begin to unload on his opponents with clean combos who he feels are hurt – but he isn’t reckless either which is something I like.
So he’s not a pure power guy but it’s more so his timing, accuracy and attritional work being what leads to his striking based finishes.
However defensively, being as lanky as he is, Patterson does have elements of “tall man’s defense”.
He tends to use his range effectively for the most part but when guys do get inside on him, he’s getting cracked – we saw that specifically in his last 2 fights where he got hurt early by Cenci, and Ashmoz clocked Patterson off a lazy kick in his debut, putting him down early.
Patterson was also KO’d in his 1st pro loss back in 2017.
So what I garner from Patterson is that he’s going to need a “prettier” type of fight to really excel on the feet, and will probably struggle in the dog fights against opponents that can apply effective pressure. His chin is also questionable now and will be facing bigger hitters at 170 in comparison to 155.
How it plays out: The striking dynamic is very interesting here. Despite Patterson going up in weight, he will still have a 2” height and reach edge over Lainesse. The ball is somewhat in the court of Lainesse in my eyes. If he fights Patterson the way he fought Darian Weeks, Patterson out points him. But if he times his pocket entries to get inside, land his shots and make this a dirtier fight, I like Lainesse a lot in that dynamic in which he should finish Patterson.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Lainesse is a BJJ Brown Belt but has no pro wins via submission.
He hasn’t shown much willingness to wrestle overall but has got some top time in a few fights where he’s looked okay.
Historically, when he’s been taken down, he’s been able to get up relatively quickly and his overall TDD appears to be decent.
However, Malott did get him down in the last outing and was able to maintain top position to eventually set up an arm triangle to which he finished at the end of the 1st round – Lainesse wasn’t in a good position, but he also tapped early which I thought was interesting.
He was able to threaten Gabe Green with multiple submission attempts, but Green worked out – he also threatened another Green back on the regionals late in their fight, but also wasn’t able to secure.
Overall, I still don’t have a great gauge of Lainesse’s ground game.
Patterson’s a BJJ Brown Belt with 5 of his 10 pro wins coming via submission.
He’s not really a proactive wrestler but has landed TDs in a handful fights, primarily from the body lock with trips (what you would anticipate from a taller fighter).
The main credence to him isn’t so much his wrestling, it’s that he’s aggressive in attacking necks with a nice front head lock series – specifically the guillotine to where he can use his long limbs to really turn chokes over.
I’m not a huge proponent of guillotine guys but he’s not a “jumper” and more of a “long man choker” which is better.
Defensively, we’ve seen him struggle at points in his last two Brave fights against 2 Caucas Russians.
But he was able to either work up from the TDs or be able to reverse position – he eventually caught Magomedov but it was a fight he was down in.
Overall, he’s one of those crafty/lanky grapplers that needs to be given respect or he will finish guys – I still think he needs work in the wrestling department both offensively and defensively though.
How it plays out: Given me not having a great gauge on Lainesse as a ground fighter, the floor is a bit hard to say. From a high level, Lainesse is probably a better wrestler who should have a strength/physicality advantage, but Patterson is a more dangerous submission grappler. I have seen Patterson get stuck in chokes before too though and Lainesse will attempt. It’s most likely a minutes vs moments type of scenario on the ground but it’s tricky.
Weird fight as you have Patterson debuting in a new weight class and Lainesse on the chopping block being on the last fight of his contract who most likely gets cut with a loss. I see merit to both parties where it’s probably Lainesse early and Patterson late if historics tell us anything. I slightly lean to the Lainesse side in finding the chin of Patterson but it’s not a strong opinion.
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On DraftKings, this fight has to be on our radar given a heavy -650 line for it to end inside the distance, but it’s also probably the fight that makes me most uncomfortable on this slate.
I thought Patterson was terrible entering his UFC debut and I was on Ashmouz as a heavy underdog in that spot – who promptly knocked Patterson out despite being way smaller. I have major concerns with Patterson’s defensive grappling too.
Lainesse I know is awful, and his most recent loss is extremely concerning because he tapped very early to a choke that really wasn’t locked in. He’s also shown poor cardio in the past.
I don’t know how you really feel comfortable in this matchup and these are two fighters who I feel very strongly will not last at this level.
I can’t even say I’m convinced the fight will end quickly, because neither guy is talented. Lainesse could test the chin of Patterson but we’ve seen him land 23 sig. strikes over 15 minutes in an extended fight. Patterson doesn’t have the wrestling to consistently get this to the ground.
If I had to make a lean, it would be on the underdog Patterson at 7.8k. Playing into the idea of small sampling in his UFC career, and now facing a very poor opponent who can be finished on the feet or on the mat. However, if you wanted to buy into the power of Lainesse and the poor chin of Patterson, I can understand that too.
Really, it’s just not a fight that makes sense for me to take a major stand because if I do that, I feel I am completely guessing. I’m not even completely sold on the idea to jam these guys in heavily given the bust risk in an extended matchup. Public ownership will also play a role here as to what the optimal strategy is.
Lainesse at 8.4k with a -110 ITD will project quite well for upside purposes, and he needs to be mixed in because of it. He’ll be moderately owned I would guess but with the main and co-main in the same price range, he may not end up ultra-chalk.
There’s major risk of low volume, and no wrestling, but Lainesse is fighting at home and has some early KO upside. He’s a viable, boom or bust tournament option who’s finishing metrics appear very strong for the price.
Patterson at 7.8k is +145 to win ITD, which is still very strong. I’m unsure exactly how the fight will unfold but I think him locking up a choke is quite possible. Maybe he can hurt Lainesse too or even win a decision, though the latter wouldn’t score super well.
I think you have to target him in some regard for his finishing upside. I lean a little bit in his direction as mentioned, given the price, but I have no confidence.
In theory this is a great matchup to target with a heavy ITD line, and you aim to be overweight to the public if it doesn’t project to be super popular. But there is major risk with the talent on each side and that makes me uncomfortable.
Fight Prediction: Patterson by Guillotine, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Fight Odds: Jasudavicius -383, Cachoeira +300
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Jasudavicius 9.5k, Cachoeira 6.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Home crowd favorite Jasmine Jasudavicius will get another opportunity to showcase her skills against the aggressive Priscila Cachoeira on Saturday.
I was actually impressed with Jasudavicius in her recent win against Miranda Maverick. She wrestled and struck hard, and showed some really good cardio in an upset win. I also thought Jasmine looked decent with her wrestling game in her recent loss against Tracy Cortez.
Jasmine is mostly a grappler. She likes to clinch her opponents up with a body lock, get the takedown and go to work in top position. Her top game is pretty heavy and I do like her ground and pound. She will posture up and throw some hard shots.
Jasmine lands 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I consider her takedowns decent. She is tenacious and her pace and physicality assists her takedowns in general. I also have liked the tdd of Jasmine, as she defends takedowns at 80 percent and works up to her feet well.
Although Jasmine is long, she doesn’t use her length to control range on the feet. She is not technical on the feet at all. She lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.41 in return which isn’t good. She is a bit of a punching bag. I actually thought Jasmine’s striking looked better against Maverick. It is moreso her pace and pressure than her striking. She just walks forward and backs her opponents up.
I still think Jasmine has many flaws though. She isn’t technical at all on the feet and is a borderline liability there. However, she is tenacious and pressures hard. She will look to land offense and she is big as well. I think she can continue to grind out wins with takedowns, control, and her ground game at this level. Finishes will likely come against bad competition as well.
Jasmine will be taking on Priscila Cachoeira. I will always tune into a Cachoeira fight, as she is a hilarious fighter. She is basically a striker with zero defense whatsoever.
Her entire goal is to march her opponent down, take a shot (or seven) to land one of her own with the hope of hurting her opponent or just exhausting / overwhelming them with her pressure.
Cach lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 7.13 in return. She defends strikes at 45 percent lol. So yea, she isn’t exactly going to cleanly win striking rounds. Her entire game only really works vs girls who tire out or just aren’t very good strikers. I don’t expect it to really work against any above-average strikers.
Cach defends takedowns at 65 percent and has only landed one takedown in the UFC. So she is really just interested in fighting on the feet.
I really don’t like Cach’s tdd or game off her back at all. Just go watch Mazany take her down, and easily get her into half guard and advance position. Furthermore, Robertson took Cach down, easily passed and was landing nasty ground and pound from mount. Maverick also landed 3 takedowns against Cach and eventually submitted her. It is just hard to trust her defensive grappling after seeing her lose there so often.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to go with Jasmine because she has the grappling upside here. Jasmine shoots a lot of takedowns, and my guess is that she can land a few takedowns in this fight, rack up control time on the mat, and land ground and pound or threaten with a finish.
Jasmine generally goes to her grappling too. Jasmine also has strong cardio which should aid her against Cach who is sometimes too reliant on tiring out her opponents.
Obviously if this fight stays standing, Cach could win and is live to maybe even hurt Jasmine. Jasmine is sloppy and hittable so this could get a little sketchy. However, Jasmine seems very tough, and my guess is Cach will have a hard time finishing her. So Cach is probably reliant on winning a striking based decision where she has to avoid getting outgrappled for 15 minutes which I doubt happens.
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On DraftKings, Jasudavicius is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k, and I think it’s going to be difficult to prioritize her at this price.
The upside is that she does have considerable grappling and finishing equity against a very poor defensive grappler in Cachoeira. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see Jasudavicius land two takedowns, and lock up a choke in round one.
With that said, she has yet to finish a fight in the UFC and is only +235 to win ITD in this matchup, which is honestly giving her no respect considering the opponent. So Jas won’t exactly rate out super well for 9.5k.
Mostly, I think I am going to prioritize the mid-range on the slate, and even once you decide to pay up, it’s quite feasible to choose other fighters in the 9k range. While I do think Jasudavicius has a decent floor/ceiling combination, she falls more into the secondary category for me this week based on pricing.
I also don’t want to suggest that you cannot play her – especially if Jasudavicius projects to be lower owned, which is possible. She’s already scored 105 points in a decision on DK. But in terms of a priority, I think it’s tough to pay up this high and so ultimately, I don’t expect myself to end up with heavy exposure.
Cachoeira at 6.7k is in play, and has knockout upside, but I don’t think I will end up with much exposure to her either.
There are many competitively lined fights this week and so the projected number of underdog wins is larger than an average card.
While Cachoeira could win, she would still need to win by early knockout to really reach a ceiling. I actually give her some chance in the sense that she’s aggressive, hits hard, and Jasudavicius is not a tremendous technical striker or wrestler.
Still, Cachoeira is the biggest dog on the slate with no floor, and a +310 to win ITD. She is viable as a pure punt at 6.7k, if you have a large portfolio to work with. But I’d much rather pay up a little bit more to get access to more win equity.
Fight Prediction: Jasudavicius by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick
Fight Odds: Gordon -194, Flick +165
Odds to Finish: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Gordon 8.3k, Flick 7.9k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
We get the fight night started as the 14-7 Malcolm Gordon makes the walk to the Octagon in his home country of Canada to take on the 16-7 Jimmy “the brick” Flick.
Both fighters are looking to get back on track in what is bound to be a fun bout for as long as it lasts. Let’s dive in.
Malcolm “X” Gordon is the first Canadian to make the walk this weekend and looks to get back on track in front of his hometown fans. Although he hasn’t had the best run inside the Octagon, going 2-4 in the UFC, Malcolm has fought some stellar competition at 125 in Muhammad Mokaev, Jake Hadley and Amir Albazi.
Let’s not beat around the bush here… Gordon isn’t the most reliable fighter. He has very poor durability and has been finished in all 7 of his losses. Not only is his chin made of glass, but he was hurt to the body last time by Hadley and his ability to take damage certainly isn’t the best.
Despite this knack on him, I do think he has a decent overall offensive skill set. With a black belt in BJJ, Malcolm is primarily a ground fighter who will look to exploit the weaknesses in his opponents’ grappling. He is dangerous in transition and can maintain top control if he’s able to obtain it in the first place.
He averages 1.61 TDs per 15 minutes with a 30% TD accuracy and against lesser grapplers, can utilize this to his advantage. Defensively, the 9% TDD is certainly a concern, but with solid grappling and a majority of those TDs coming to solid wrestlers, I do think he has been willing to play on the mat.
On the feet, although I think he’s technically sound, Gordon definitely leaves a lot to be desired. He only averages 1.93 strikes landed per minute with 42% striking defense. Although fighting at a slow pace, he has the ability to counter strike and win minutes on the feet, if he holds the advantage there.
The major problem with Gordon is his durability and sloppiness. Despite a decent offensive skill set and solid cardio, Gordon can be very easily hurt and caught in bad situations. However, I do think that he is well-rounded enough to hold his own against the lower echelon of the division, shall his chin hold up.
Jimmy Flick returns to the Octagon and he himself looks to right the ship on Saturday. The former LFA champion is a primary submission grappler and a fantastic one at that. He made his UFC debut back in 2020 against Cody Durden and secured a super impressive flying triangle, a win that has aged pretty well.
Following that win, he had a surprise retirement, took a couple years off, came back and has not been the same since. He has dropped his last two in pretty brutal fashion to Charles Johnson and Alessandro Costa.
Despite the raw talent on the mat we know he has, he has not looked the same and has truly not seemed interested in winning. His style has always been pretty simple: grappling, grappling and more grappling. The black belt doesn’t have the best striking and is aware of that, and takes every action he can to get the fight to the ground.
Offensively, he truly is dominant on the mat when fresh if he can get it there, but with only a 27% TD accuracy, I question his wrestling capabilities at this point of his career.
Defensively, there isn’t too much to rag on about. He has been KO’d in 6 of his 7 losses and his durability certainly isn’t great. He also seems to lack the cardio and will to win if this fight gets extended.
Most of his losses do come in round two as he mentally checks out if he can’t win early, and this is only exacerbated since his un-retirement. Despite this, he is ever dangerous on the mat and has incredible submission upside both off his back and from top position. He averages 4.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes and is super aggressive on the mat, to which his opponents should be weary of.
On the feet he only averages 1.99 strikes landed per minute with a 38% striking defense. Considering his poor striking and lack of defense, Flick is ultimately a one-dimensional threat on the mat and will do everything in his power to get it there early.
Overall, Flick is a dominant submission grappler early but has recently lacked the motivation and durability to win if he’s not able to get an early finish. He seems to be a threat early and then fades down the stretch, although his danger level early cannot be understated.
This fight is truly comical. We have ourselves a fight between two of the least trustworthy fighters in maybe the promotion, let alone the weight class. I don’t think Malcolm Gordon is that bad talent wise, but he has no durability and his fight IQ has lacked in the past.
Flick didn’t used to be that bad, but since coming out of retirement he’s looked awful and has shown no determination to win. If it comes down to a battle of who wants it more, I think Gordon is the rightful favorite.
At least he has shown any ability to go out there and want to win and has been fighting the better level of competition. Aside from that, I do think he has an edge in certain aspects of the fight here. He’s the better striker, has the better cardio and has the ability to hold out in the wrestling.
Flick may be the better submission grappler but isn’t the best wrestler and Gordon has a black belt in his own right to allow him to hold his own on the mat.
Although the chin of Gordon is a large red flag, Flick has never gotten a KO in 23 pro fights and I don’t anticipate his first one coming here. An early submission for Flick may be live, but as the fight goes on, I think Gordon is the superior striker with better cardio and more determination to win at this point of his career. Give me the Canadian in front of his home crowd, although neither fighter is able to be fully trusted.
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On DraftKings, we get to start the night out with a complete shit show in Gordon vs. Flick, and then follow it up only two fights later with Lainesse vs. Patterson. My goodness.
The most interesting aspect of this fight is the line movement we’ve seen throughout the week. Gordon was something like -122 only a few days ago, and now he’s -220..
I’ve heard injury speculations. Perhaps it’s nothing besides big money coming in on Gordon. Or some combination of the two – in relation to Flick having already literally retired once – who knows where his head is at.
The bottom line is that Gordon is priced at 8.3k and he’s now a major value given this line movement. Put aside his lack of skill and durability for a second and consider this. He’s -150 to win ITD which is one of the best lines on the entire slate. His opponent has lost six times by TKO. You’re getting him for 8.3k.
I’m expecting Gordon to be one of the most popular fighters on the entire slate, potentially, because of this. And frankly, he’s hard to ignore.
The worst part about it is that Gordon is not very skillful or durable and so I don’t really have much faith he’ll come through. Starting out the night with this situation is very scary.
Ultimately, I almost feel I have no choice but to lean into the line movement and play Gordon moderately at the price tag. There’s bust risk but he’s likely to win ITD if he wins at all and 8.3k is a great price to pay.
Flick at 7.9k will be the leverage side. In theory, on paper, he’s not even a bad option considering Gordon is not durable and has a 9% takedown defense. A NINE PERCENT takedown defense rate against an opponent like Flick who will come out and wrestle, and probably is the superior submission grappler.
It really wouldn’t be crazy to pick Flick outright.
Now you can get him at a much lower ownership at 7.9k, and his ceiling is still very good as a win most likely comes by early submission. He’s still +285 to win ITD which is decent.
I don’t think it would even be wrong to come in above market on Flick in this spot all things considered. But at the same time, he might just be here for a paycheck and quit after a few minutes if he hasn’t won. There’s major downside risk.
As the opening prelim, I’ll have a chunk of Flick for his upside and leverage against Gordon, but I understand what I’m dealing with here. Submission or bust. And it’s fine if you’d rather prioritize a different underdog.
Fight Prediction: Gordon by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)