Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Fight Odds: Edwards -253, Muhammad +210
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Edwards 8.8k, Muhammad 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
We’re set for a rematch at the top of the card this week as Leon Edwards will take on Belal Muhammad for the welterweight crown in London.
The pair last fought in 2021, but that bout ended only 18 seconds into the second round when Edwards poked Muhammad in the eye. It was a pretty devastating injury for Muhammad, and he’s been begging for a rematch ever since.
Though five minutes of action three years ago doesn’t mean much to me, it should be noted that Edwards was controlling the fight up until the stoppage. He had outlanded Muhammad 17 to 8 in round one and briefly hurt him as well.
That, along with Muhammad’s “boring” fighting style have been major factors why the pair haven’t fought again until now. But there’s no better time than the present for Muhammad to right the wrong and prove he’s worthy of holding the belt in this division.
Some of you know, I am not the biggest fan of Edwards or his fighting style, and I’ve bet against him on several occasions. Mostly, I’ve been proven wrong.
With consecutive victories of Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, Edwards is clearly deserving of his time in the spotlight. He’s a successful neutralizer, and very well-rounded, and his defense and pacing has been a big attribute to his recent success.
However, I’m really still not convinced Edwards is anything special. Maybe it’s a flaw in my style of analysis, but I feel somewhat confident a loss for Edwards is coming sooner or later.
Despite a lengthy 17-fight sample, Edwards is not even landing 3 strikes per minute. He’s currently averaging 2.75 per minute while absorbing 2.34 per minute with a 54 percent striking defense.
It’s honestly pretty atrocious. He just landed 57 strikes and two takedowns over five rounds to beat Covington, and that’s actually a BETTER result numerically than he’s had in other recent bouts, which includes his 55-strike performance over Usman in the last-second hail mary KO.
Landing 50 or 60 strikes in TWENTY FIVE MINUTES is just shockingly poor. Especially as he’s not been extremely effective with those strikes, only scoring one knockdown (the hail mary) in his last 30+ rounds.
But, Edwards’ willingness to disengage and point fight against recent wrestlers has been more than enough, and I think he can continue to win with that style.
I will also compliment the wrestling of Edwards, which has drastically improved throughout the years to the point of being able to neutralize better wrestlers in the division. And he’s taken down and controlled many lesser opponents along the way, averaging 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Still, two takedowns in 25 minutes is not incredible volume and with his lack of striking volume, it’s quite difficult for me to project him to dominate rounds.
It’s funny that Muhammad has a bad rap for being boring when on paper, he does far more than Edwards by comparison.
Yes, Muhammad isn’t an elite athlete. He’s not a great finisher in any capacity. His submission game is mediocre. His power is mediocre.
He still goes out there and tries very hard, pushes a pace, and produces offense in all areas which I highly respect. He’s a fighter who maximizes the skills he does have.
Muhammad is a very decent kickboxer who can win rounds based on pacing. He averages 4.55 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.64 per minute with a 57 percent striking defense.
Purely at distance, for comparison’s sake, Muhammad is landing 5.3 strikes per minute with a +0.76 ratio, while Edwards is landing 3.75 per minute with a +0.69 ratio. Muhammad clearly throws and lands more strikes than Edwards, and I do believe that gives him a real path to victory.
Muhammad has also made his mark wrestling in recent years, and averages 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at seven against Thompson and five against Luque. He doesn’t do a whole lot with it though and his success is more based on control.
Edwards has really proven capable offensively and defensively as a wrestler, and I think that aspect is still what could separate him here. If Muhammad cannot land takedowns, he simply loses one additional path to victory.
And it’s fair to favor Edwards to defend successfully considering his 70 percent defensive mark. However, even against Covington, where he defended 8/10 attempts, Covington still got him down and controlled him for the large majority of the final five minutes.
Edwards just isn’t great.. Yeah he can defend fine at times, but he also can still be taken down and held down, which is literally proven by the last round we saw from him.
I’ll be interested to see what happens when Edwards shoots takedowns because he’s the better athlete here and the more dangerous submission grappler. But Muhammad is defending at 93 percent, which includes defending 20/21 takedowns against Demian Maia.
Granted Edwards might still get him down, but it’s not a certainty.
Projecting wrestling in this matchup is tough, but I will say that one of the best things about Muhammad is his cardio. Since he doesn’t have an explosive finishing style, he can fight hard for 25 minutes, and I honestly think that’s another huge piece to the puzzle in what could help him get past Edwards.
Overall, the numbers clearly point to me that Muhammad can win this fight, but that’s often the case when I’m analyzing Edwards, and usually, he finds a way to win.
Now at home in London, and based on five minutes of action the last time he fought Muhammad, I could see him getting his hand raised again. He’ll limit exchanges, be a bit more effective with his strikes, and neutralize the wrestling.
That could either lead to another boring, 70-strike performance where he squeaks out three rounds, or potentially he could hurt Muhammad. Muhammad has been knocked out before, though it’s been a while, and he’s been dropped in other fights. Edwards has some KO equity.
If Muhammad simply survives, which I’m leaning toward happening early, I don’t see why he shouldn’t be competitive if not winning rounds.
Someone just needs to push Edwards. I’ve been losing my mind watching Usman and Covington back themselves up and play cautiously, which fits perfectly into what Edwards wants.
Let’s not forget that prior to Edwards scoring that last-second KO over Usman, he was losing decisively and many thought he was about to be finished. He just can’t produce a ton of offense, and being pushed backward and pressured can really make him uncomfortable.
Muhammad might get hurt doing that, but it’s very obviously his best path to victory. We know he can strike at a high rate, so move forward and do that for 25 minutes, while mixing in wrestling and clinch exchanges. That should lead to competitive rounds that Muhammad at least has a chance to win.
I feel obligated to pick Edwards just given his history of success but I am far from confident here, and I like parts of Muhammad’s game enough for me to give him a very real shot to pull off the upset.
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On DraftKings, Edwards is still priced at 8.8k which puts him firmly in play for this weekend.
With five rounds to work with, Edwards *could* land 100-120 strikes. He’s done it once before. He could land four takedowns, even if he doesn’t do much with it. He could hurt and finish Muhammad, and is +200 to win ITD.
The reality is though that he’s scored 91, 84, 79 and 72 in his last four five-round wins, and it’s gotten progressively worse. At 8.8k on a large slate, I’m looking for 100+, so it feels difficult to prioritize Edwards.
One argument I suppose is that Muhammad should really push the pace here, forcing Edwards to work. It gives Edwards a moderate floor in a win I believe, though I’m very unsure about his ceiling. He still landed 17 strikes and 0 takedowns in his only full round with Muhammad, which would put him on pace to bust.
I don’t know. I don’t want to tell you not to play Edwards. He’s priced OK and has lots of time to do stuff. Historically, he doesn’t do a lot of stuff though.
I think I’ll aim to be light on Edwards this week or move him into the secondary category. If he fits, I’m happy to roster him a little bit. I do think there’s merit to pivoting away quite often and chasing higher upside for hopefully lower ownership elsewhere.
Muhammad at 7.4k is honestly someone I’m interested in. This fight is -170 to go the full 25 minute distance, which should give Muhammad a lot of time to produce offense.
If he loses by decision, he probably won’t score massively, but 50 points is in play. There aren’t a ton of high quality dogs below him and he does save lots of salary.
Plus, if Muhammad wins, he’s likely to score a good amount. I would guess landing takedowns will aid him to a win, and he could reach 100 points. He did just score 83 points in a five-round win, though that had weird circumstances too. Even if that’s the case, I might take 85 on this slate at 7.4k.
You don’t have to go heavy here as he’s a moderate dog with a +515 ITD line. I actually think he can win though, and he has a style to score fine in a standard matchup.
There are some dogs priced more cheaply who could be lower owned and present a better upside case, so it’s fine to pivot to them. Or pay up. But Muhammad looks like a solid secondary target to me for the price and I’m willing to play him around the field or even a bit above.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Edwards by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
Fight Odds: Aspinall -383, Blaydes +300
Odds to Finish: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: Aspinall 9.4k, Blaydes 6.8k
Weight Class: HW
Two years ago, the UFC crossed the pond to London, England so that hometown favorite Tom Aspinall could headline against Curtis Blaydes.
Only 15 seconds into that bout, Aspinall destroyed his knee and the fight was finished. Now, he’ll get a chance at redemption, competing yet again in London against Blaydes, this time for the interim heavyweight championship.
And while we were left with major questions about Aspinall following his devastating knee injury, he’s told us that it was the best thing that could have happened to him, and it allowed him to completely overhaul his training and motivated him to push even harder.
He’s since returned with a bang – knocking out both Sergei Pavlovich and Marcin Tybura in a minute.
I am fairly certain that Aspinall is the best, or among the best in the heavyweight division currently, and I think he’d be a real challenge for Jon Jones who has outright refused to fight him. Still, without having fought into many extended contests, it absolutely does leave the door open for a fighter like Blaydes to potentially test the full spectrum of Aspinall’s capabilities.
Aspinall is just a legit athlete, and that’s very clear. He’s fast and explosive, and he definitely holds a leg up over Blaydes in that regard. He’s also very well-rounded, with a black belt in jiu-jitsu, a capable wrestling game, and decent boxing.
The problem is really that Aspinall has not yet fought past the 6:09 mark in the UFC. He’s competed eight times and seven of those fights ended in round one, with the majority ending in less than 1.5 minutes.
While I feel quite certain Aspinall’s skills are elite, I am also quite certain that he cannot carry his explosiveness and power for a full five rounds. And he has not yet proven he’s an elite minute winner, someone who can provide consistent volume and wrestling over an extended period. He’s only surpassed 30 strikes one time, and he’s only surpassed one takedown on a single occasion as well.
Very often with fighters who explode into finishes early, they tend to tire. And then we see them fade, and lose once the fight gets extended. That is absolutely still a risk for Aspinall and until we’ve seen it, it’s an outcome that’s hard to dismiss.
I do consider that the main path to victory for Blaydes, who’s a well-rounded veteran of this division and someone who’s fought three rounds several times. Blaydes even went a full 25 minutes with Alexander Volkov in 2020, where he landed 14 takedowns en route to a victory.
Blaydes has a Junior College wrestling background and that’s always been his best skill set, where he averages 5.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. When on top, he can throw ground-and-pound and finish fights, and he’s earned a handful of TKOs within the UFC.
Blaydes is also a pretty competent boxer. Even in the first few exchanges with Aspinall the last time, you can see that Blaydes is technically functional and willing to throw. He even chopped at the leg of Aspinall right before Aspinall went down.
Blaydes currently lands 3.53 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 1.83 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. At distance, Blaydes is better than you’d expect, landing 3.48 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.24. It’s not incredible volume but he’s landing more on opponents than vice versa.
The real challenge that Blaydes has not been able to overcome, is that he takes a lot of damage. He’s been hit hard very often throughout his career, and he’s been knocked out on several occasions. The most recent occasion came against Pavlovich in 2023.
Additionally, Blaydes just isn’t an elite finisher, and his standing knockdown rate is poor, as is his submission game. He has never won by submission in the UFC, and he only holds two knockdowns in 18 UFC bouts.
So generally, I consider Blaydes more of an elite round winner for the HW division. He can wrestle at a high rate, and pretty well. He can box OK. He has cardio to fight for a while. Unless he’s getting badly hurt, Blaydes is usually winning.
In fact, Blaydes has only lost four of 18 UFC fights, and he was knocked out in all four of those losses.
Would it surprise you to hear that Aspinall was only -135 against Blaydes the first time, but is now pushing -400 on many books in the rematch? It surprises me a little bit, though I’ve come away thinking Aspinall deserves to be favored.
The thing is, Aspinall is just so much more effective than Blaydes. Aspinall is truly a dangerous boxer, and he’s way faster and more explosive than Blaydes, who is a bit footslow himself.
Given Blaydes’ history, it seems fairly likely that Aspinall can crack him early and put him down.
Aspinall is also a better submission grappler than Blaydes, and given what we just saw with Jailton Almeida taking Blaydes down nine times in five minutes, I am sure that Aspinall can have wrestling success as well. Either path could lead to an early finish, and that’s what I perceive to be the most likely outcome.
However, it should also be noted that despite Blaydes getting taken down nine times in five minutes in his last fight, he came back to win. If Aspinall does not finish Blaydes early, will he have the gas tank to win rounds down the stretch? I am honestly unsure.
It’s definitely not fair to assume Aspinall will win them easily, and it’s fair to assume he will probably slow down, and allow Blaydes to compete with him. It’s also quite possible that Blaydes just has more gas and can produce more offense, leading to clear round wins himself.
There is difficulty in Blaydes reaching those latter rounds, but if this fight hits round three, you could sell me on the argument that Blaydes could be the outright favorite at that point.
I am still going to pick Aspinall to get the job done early. I do think it’s quite likely he can hurt Blaydes in the first couple rounds, or take him down and do some damage on the mat. Blaydes should still be able to hang in there though, due to striking and wrestling competency, and if he simply survives, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him eventually wear on Aspinall’s gas tank and turn the tide.
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On DraftKings, I consider this fight among the very best on the slate and I expect I will have moderate or heavy exposure to it as a whole.
For starters, the fight is lined -1000 to end inside the distance, and -175 to end Under 1.5 rounds.
Aspinall is priced up to 9.4k, making him the second highest priced fighter on the card, and he’s likely to be among the most popular targets on the slate as well.
He’s going to rate out extremely well based on early finishing equity, and is currently lined -350 to win ITD and -105 to win in round one. That’s very strong, and the fight analysis leads me to believe a large portion of his win equity is tied to an early finish.
So I really don’t have a problem with paying up for Aspinall aggressively and prioritizing him within this top tier. I do feel better about him than any other fighter priced in the 9k range.
However, one issue we’ve seen from Aspinall is that he’s been winning too early, and it’s limited his upside. Yes, he has scores of 116 and 129 on his record, but he also has wins of 103, 95, 106, 105 and 104.
I’m really not convinced Blaydes will fight toe to toe with Aspinall early, and it could be another quick night, resulting in another 100-110 point score. That’s still a decent result, but is it optimal? I’m not certain.
If he pushes 110 points then perhaps, but another 104 point score is not likely to make Aspinall optimal at 9.4k. So as always, my intent here is to let you know that while Aspinall could smash in real life, it may not be reflected in his fantasy result.
Because of his likely chalk ownership, you can definitely make the case to pivot or be underweight to Aspinall in this top range. There are going to be 13 other winners on the slate, and we need to be aiming for smash results.
While I think Aspinall is capable of one, Wood, McCann and others have paths as well, and I would prefer to spread out my exposure rather than taking a heavy stand on Aspinall.
I still rate Aspinall at the top and will end up rostering him frequently, but it’s absolutely worth mixing it up in the top tier in large-field tournaments.
Blaydes at 6.8k doesn’t carry a strong floor, nor should he be viewed as likely to win, but I think he’s a really strong punt option this week.
There’s a reasonable chance that the betting line is too wide, and Blaydes may have a clear path to win via cardio and wrestling over the duration. Any kind of win for Blaydes is likely to produce a lot of points though, and I would expect grappling to play some sort of factor.
Blaydes may be popular compared to others priced nearby, but he shouldn’t be chalk, and he should provide heavy leverage against Aspinall lineups. He’s only +385 to win ITD but I’m not particularly worried about a finish, and my expectation is that a victory by decision would still give Blaydes a great chance to finish on the optimal lineup.
There are other fighters in this range I like too, and there are many live underdogs on the slate, so you don’t need to force Blaydes in. But I think you should absolutely have some exposure here given the leverage, upside and fight dynamic.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aspinall by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
“Bobby” King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
Fight Odds: Green -115, Pimblett +100
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Green 8.2k, Pimblett 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun matchup here as the always entertaining Bobby Green will be taking on the brash and popular Paddy Pimblett.
We know the drill with Green. Green is a skilled striker, especially with his boxing / jab and he also has good teep / front kicks to the body. Green lands 6.45 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.75 in return. He defends strikes at 62 percent. So his metrics are honestly fantastic and are the main reason why he has been a staple in my betting portfolio for years.
Green will always be competitive with his striking skills and volume and that gives him a high floor in most matchups. He is just a skilled guy and is generally pretty durable as well. He also has great cardio and can fight all day.
Green is also a capable wrestler. He lands 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 74 percent, and is a tough cat to hold down. He doesn’t have the best top control, but he is capable of landing a couple of takedowns and getting a little bit of control time on the mat.
Green will be taking on Paddy Pimblett. Pimblett is a bit of a freestyle fighter, but I probably consider him best as a grappler. He has won by submission 10 times in his career and twice in the UFC. I consider him pretty dangerous on the mat and capable of finding the back, getting hooks in and threatening with submissions.
The issue is I don’t think Pimblett’s takedowns are all that great. I always thought his takedowns would get shut down once he got steps up in competition and that is what happened against Jared Gordon. Pimblett failed on all three takedowns that he attempted on Gordon. Still though, Pimblett can take down weak grapplers and he is good enough on the mat to win fights in the UFC with his grappling.
Pimblett is an okay striker. I don’t consider him very skilled but he is tough and he is dangerous at times. He struck competitively with Jared Gordon which shows he is a somewhat average striker in this weight class. I don’t totally trust him on the feet, but he is decent enough and tough enough to make something happen. He will throw with heat at times and is capable of knocking people out.
Pimblett is also just tough and has basically never been finished in his career which spans 24 fights. He was submitted one time in 2013 when he was 18 years old but that is basically irrelevant to me as he was a teenager.
Overall, Pimblett is well-rounded enough to beat shot or underdeveloped fighters, but he is clearly an overhyped prospect who won’t beat the best lightweights in the world.
I think Bobby Green is about where Pimblett’s ceiling ends. I do think Paddy can win this fight, but I doubt he will beat fighters above Green’s league.
I do think Pimblett has a bit of grappling upside here. I wouldn’t be shocked with a takedown, backtake and a submission threat. However, I am honestly leaning against that happening as Green is a good enough defensive wrestler and scrambler. I generally think this fight will play out on the feet more often than not.
On the feet, I do lean Green a bit based on his metrics and experience. We have just seen Green have such great striking performances, and I am almost always going to lean towards his metrics against relatively unproven strikers.
Paddy isn’t bad on the feet and he is very tough. I do think he can strike competitively with Green and potentially hurt him. He also may just strike competitively enough, coupled with the hometown crowd on his side that could help trick the judges into thinking he is winning rounds. So Paddy can win this fight. He has a couple of paths to victory.
Still though, I am just leaning towards Green here. I think he can minimize the grappling of Paddy enough and get a striking fight where I think he is a more proven commodity.
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On DraftKings, I’m definitely interested in this matchup for pacing purposes, though it is a bit tricky to feel confident in.
Partially, it’s because I view Pimblett as holding the clearly superior style to score well on DraftKings. He’s already posted scores of 112, 98 and 119 among his five wins, and I feel somewhat confident that he would exceed value in a win here at 8k.
Pimblett can grapple, and he throws bombs on the feet. If he wins, it’s going to come from damage, and/or some grappling mixed in. And based on how aggressive he is, a finish often materializes.
Pimblett is +170 to win ITD and rates out as a pretty strong target for 8k. I definitely want some exposure to him at this price.
However, I don’t think this is a great matchup for Pimblett and I’m not going to pick him to win.
While he can grapple, he hasn’t been super effective with his takedown game in the UFC. In fact, he’s only landed three total takedowns in five fights, while giving up seven. Green isn’t an elite defensive wrestler but he’s pretty strong, and it’s tough to project Pimblett for a lot of success here.
Otherwise, is Pimblett gonna outstrike Green? That would be far and away the best performance of his career. He’s defending strikes at 41 percent while Green is defending at 62 percent, and Green is far more technical with much higher volume upside.
Chasing Green exposure is tougher as he won’t project for much grappling equity, and his ITD line is poor +470. And this is why the matchup is tough to analyze overall.
Despite Green never rating out well, and rarely ending up chalky, he actually does score well historically, which is another wrench in the analysis. His last five wins are 121, 128, 108, 105 and 112. That’s honestly elite.
I guess it’s because he can reach insane volume numbers – we’ve seen him top 180 sig. strikes twice in that span. I spoke about this last time Green fought, he ended up 12% owned and found his way to the optimal..
With box scores that strong, I don’t think Green will be full on contrarian this week, but facing an opponent who hasn’t lost in the UFC, I’m not sure Green will be popular either, and I again do like him.
The fact is, if he can neutralize Pimblett’s grappling (or if Pimblett just wants to strike which is just as likely), this fight might just be a brawl. Pimblett will try to kill him, and he will leave himself open constantly.
Green is still a risk, but I think Green can absolutely hurt Pimblett at some point. A win for Green will either come from damage and a finish, or lots of volume. Perhaps volume won’t get him to the optimal but I’m not certain of that either.
Despite Green rating out terribly, I think he’s a strong tournament option this week and I wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field. I love the pacing, I like Green’s historic striking upside, and this is a good matchup for him to score.
Pimblett is a strong target too and I’d like exposure to him, I just simply feel less confident that his style will carry him to a win. Green was KOd recently though and I honestly would give Pimblett some early KO equity. That, coupled with grappling upside still puts him firmly in play, and you could prioritize him over Green if you feel strongly.
I will lean toward Green here, but this is a pretty solid mid-range fight to target and I feel the winner has a moderate floor and a moderate ceiling. It will be messy but I’d like a fair amount of exposure to this fight and I expect it to be very fun.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Green by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Fight Odds: Duncan -137, Rodrigues +119
Odds to Finish: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Duncan 8.3k, Rodrigues 7.9k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Christian Leroy Duncan bypassed the Contender Series as a former Cage Warriors champion and is now in his 2nd year on the active roster – he’s 3-1 in the UFC and 10-1 as a pro. Gregory Rodrigues is a Contender Series alum whose outing didn’t go so well, but he was brought into the UFC after winning the LFA title back in 2021. He’s since gone 6-2 in the promotion and is 15-5 as a pro. He’ll be stepping in on four weeks’ notice to replace Robert Bryczek.
The striking component:
Duncan comes from a striking background and has spent some time over at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand. He’s a very fluid striker and gives parallels between a Uriah Hall and Michael Venom Page.
He’ll switch stances, use a lot of movement and explode with fast hands and a diverse arsenal of strikes – spinning back fists, spinning back kicks, flying knees, high kicks and step in elbows. You can tell that Duncan is one of those “fast twitch” muscle fiber guys and appears to be a really solid athlete.
As a result, he’s winning on the feet in the large majority of his fights and is dangerous with eight of his 10 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
Defensively is where I still have some issues.
Because he’s so flashy, he can get cocky with his striking and it does leave openings for opponents. As a result, I’ve seen him hit cleanly, but he has been able to take some good shots to date.
He just strikes me as one of those guys who doesn’t really respect the power coming back his way, which is an attitude that could get him in trouble when he starts facing a higher brand of striker. His only pro loss came in his sophomore UFC outing against Petrosyan where he struggled with movement patterns, kicks and volume to where he just got out worked.
Overall though, the guy’s very potent/unorthodox on the feet with a lot of dynamic tools but if he’s not finding KOs or fully dictating exchanges, he’ll find himself in more competitive striking affairs if not being down outright against UFC level strikers.
Rodrigues is an interesting case study as he’s fought in some solid promotions pre-UFC including a shot on the Contender Series back in 2020 – a fight in which he was KO’d in the first round by a small 185er in Jordan Williams.
His boxing mechanics are good between his jabs/hooks/rights and hits hard with nine of his 15 pro wins coming via strikes. His work rate is generally good, but we did see his pace slow in the Dusko and Park fights.
He does have some “tall man’s defense” elements though in getting KO’d by Williams, Park hurt him, Njokuani hurt him and he was more recently KO’d by the debuting Ferreira.
However, he’s shown the ability to fight tactically, specifically in his fights with Todorovic, Petrosyan and Tavares.
He struggled with the activity and range game of Petrosyan to a degree. Despite hurting Petrosyan, Petrosyan just did a bit more on the numbers and in the eyes of the judges – I personally thought Rodrigues won the fight based on sequences and damage, but it was close. But he more recently broke down Marquez, Njokuani and Tavares.
Overall, he’s a good technical boxer (when he chooses to be) with power, but his defense can be an afterthought at times and there’s always some KO concern with him.
How it plays out: The stand up should be fun here. You have the slightly quicker, longer, flashier guy in Duncan versus the higher volume, more brooding power boxer in Rodrigues. Honestly, the style of both guys on paper can provide issues to the other. The explosive actions from Duncan give me some concern on the Rodrigues side given his shaky durability over the years. On the flip, the pressure, volume and ability to get inside for Rodrigues gives me pause with Duncan. As noted, Duncan can be cracked as well and Rodrigues will be the biggest hitter that he’s fought to date. There are arguments to be made both ways. I ultimately think Duncan has more KO upside, but Rodrigues has more minute upside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
This is where Duncan has had the most struggles. Given his striking pedigree, he has been pitted against many wrestling/grappling based fighters.
More so earlier in his pro career, he struggled with his TDD and has dropped rounds on the floor in multiple fights. He also has a poor tendency to give his back.
But in recent fights, it does appear that there has been some evolution in the TDD department but has still struggled with some cage grind. However, he did pick up a submission win prior to winning the CW title, has shown some TD upside and has TD/bottom reversal potential as well.
He’s also coming off finishing Ribeiro with GNP where he was able to take him down in the 2nd and advance position.
Overall, despite seeing some evolution from Duncan in recent years offensively, I still feel he’ll run into some bigger issues when facing UFC level floor players going forward as him conceding ground minutes to a base kickboxer in Petrosyan wasn’t a very good look.
Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt by base and has mixed wrestling into some of his fights.
In that, he’s shown some good components and a decent top game, but it’s also been against opponents with little idea of what to do on the ground (regionally).
He did take Dusko down three times, but Dusko was able to work up quickly on all occasions. He hit some really nice throws on Park and was able to get to his back at multiple points in the fight as well, though he could not submit him.
We also saw him get into dominant positions on Petrosyan and threaten a few viable submissions but couldn’t finish. He dragged Njokuani down later and was able to finish with GNP and smashed Tiuliulin from top.
He also took Tavares down twice which isn’t an easy task, and actually ended the 2nd round on top.
We haven’t seen him face much TD resistance outside of the Dusko fight where Dusko went 0-4 and his general TDD has been pretty solid – most guys don’t want to take him down given his higher grappling pedigree.
He has four pro wins via submission early on in his career though, and more recently went to full duration time with both Joe Solecki and Kody Steele in grappling matches.
Overall, the ground is a strength for Rodrigues based on historics but he’s also not a guy that you rely on to dive on legs for 15 minutes – he will mix it in though and has always gotten the better of the exchanges.
How it plays out: As noted, it’s tough to trust Rodrigues to come with a wrestle heavy gameplan because he does like to bang. But he’s still landing 2.5 TDs per 15 minutes at 45% and is the black belt in this equation. So, he has nearly all the grappling upside as the better wrestler and submission grappler. I’ve seen Duncan lose minutes/rounds on the ground before whereas I can’t say the same for Rodrigues and he’s fought better floor players than Duncan has. If Rodrigues can take Brad Tavares down twice, he surely can take Duncan down and then some if he really wants to push it. Is he going to though? That’s where some more questions come in. But I also think the flashy/jumping/spinning stuff of Duncan is going to give inherent opportunities for reactionary TDs from Rodrigues.
On what’s a fun PPV card, this fight’s definitely at the top of the list for Fight of the Night/Performance Bonus potential. It’s hard to trust Rodrigues much against an explosive party like Duncan but at the same time, I think he’s the better fighter who’s fought a higher quality of competition and has more PTVs in this fight, so he will be my pick to win.
—
On DraftKings, this is another mid-range matchup with fantasy potential and I’m definitely willing to target it.
I am also torn on the matchup, for similar reasons as Luke laid out. Rodrigues’ durability is a major concern to me – so much so that I’ve bet against him in the past, and wouldn’t consider it wrong to bet against him in the future. He gets hurt a lot and he’ll continue to get knocked out in losses.
Rodrigues is really skilled though. He can probably strike competitively here with Duncan and he definitely holds a grappling advantage. So if he simply survives, he could easily win.
Duncan is priced at 8.3k and will be boom or bust, but I am willing to chase his upside a bit. He’s scored 96, 120 and 107 in his UFC wins, though only one of those came with a standard knockdown and finish.
His history doesn’t matter though. He isn’t going to grapple with Rodrigues and volume won’t get it done either. He needs to knock Rodrigues out in the first couple of rounds to reach a ceiling, and there’s always risk of failure with that style.
But he’s lined at +125 to win ITD for a reason, and that’s a strong number for this price. You don’t have to go crazy with ownership here, but I do think Duncan should be a part of your portfolio for that early KO upside, and wouldn’t mind being near the field or even a bit overweight.
Rodrigues at 7.9k has upside within his style, so I’m interested in him by default.
Sure, he could win via volume and underperform, but he can also win via damage while standing, or via grappling domination. He’s put up scores of 91, 99, 109, 141, 120 and 76 in the UFC, which is pretty respectable. And he’s +185 to win ITD.
I like Rodrigues, but I’m also not in love with him here. Partially, I’m worried that he loses. Partially, I’m worried that while he can compete and win against Duncan on the feet, a knockout won’t come easy. I’d really love him to grapple dominate if I am backing him with a big investment at this price.
That outcome is reasonable, but just because you want Rodrigues to wrestle, does not mean he will. He’s failed to reach two takedowns in four of his last seven fights. Perhaps he’ll wrestle more aggressively here considering the threat of Duncan, but it’s not a lock. Regardless, Rodrigues is a strong secondary target with upside at 7.9k.
I do lean toward using him as only a secondary target, rather than a primary one for the reasons explained above, but ultimately it’s a fight that I would like to have moderate exposure to the winner, and both sides are worthwhile targets to a degree.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodrigues by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
Fight Odds: Allen -225, Chikadze +189
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Allen 9k, Chikadze 7.2k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a classic neutralizer matchup here as Arnold Allen will be taking on Giga Chikadze.
Allen is most certainly the bigger neutralizer of the two. He is very solid in all aspects of the game but sometimes his offense is limited. He is great defensively though.
Allen is mostly a striker although he will mix in occasional grappling as well. Allen has good fundamental boxing and straight punches. He can also mix in the occasional kicks, but I consider his hands his primary striking weapons.
Allen lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.91 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. Allen controls range very well and he is very hard to hit. He doesn’t have a ton of power but he has a couple of knockdowns and one knockout in the UFC.
My biggest concern with Allen is his overall output. His striking offense is just so low. 3.39 significant strikes per minute is just not enough. I just feel like Allen is at risk of not clearly winning striking rounds, and that’s an issue as that’s where he primarily wants to fight.
Allen does at least limit strikes so even though he doesn’t land a lot, he is never really losing clear which is good. He reminds me of his countryman Leon Edwards. These types are really hard to be confident in but they also are skilled and generally outperform their metrics. I generally struggle picking their fights confidently.
Allen is actually a decent grappler. He lands 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and has two wins by guillotine in the UFC. I don’t think his control top game is great, and I don’t think he will take and hold down good defensive grapplers. However, he is capable of spot takedowns here and there. Allen is good defensively as a grappler. He defends takedowns at 75 percent.
Allen will be taking on Giga Chikadze. Chikadze is mostly a kickboxer, and he definitely has some skills. He lands 4.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.44 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 62 percent. He is a technical kickboxer coming from a kickboxing background. He has a wide array of kicks and punches and I consider him dangerous. He definitely has KO power and round winning upside in general.
Chikadze does have some flaws though. He isn’t much of a wrestler and only lands 0.23 takedowns per 15 minutes. So wrestling isn’t really a path to victory for him.
Furthermore, Chikadze is a suspect defensive wrestler. I do think his first layer TDD is decent and has improved overtime, and he defends takedowns at a respectable 69 percent. However, he hasn’t faced many grapplers, and we have seen him submitted on the Contender Series, and dominated in round three by Jamall Emmers. I do think above-average grapplers will beat him on the mat.
Lastly, Chikadze’s cardio isn’t great. He slows down. I don’t think it is as big of a deal in three round fights compared to five round fights. However, he usually is less effective towards the end of three rounders as well.
As far as this matchup goes, I lean Allen because he is the more well-rounded fighter with better cardio. If anyone gets grappling going, it will surely be Allen. If anyone has a cardio advantage, it will also surely be Allen. So Allen has some obvious ways to win here.
However, Allen does not grapple often and this could EASILY play out on the feet which I think would play out competitively. I may even favor Chikadze slightly as a striker when these guys are fresh, but I would favor Allen over the duration because he has much better cardio. If Allen doesn’t go to his grappling, I simply think this will be an extremely competitive 15 minute kickboxing affair.
So I do think the line could be a bit wide here. I still will pick Allen as he has more ways to win and is a better overall fighter than Chikadze. The crowd will also be on his side. This very well may play out close though.
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On DraftKings, this is among my least favorite fights on the entire slate and it feels like a fantasy disaster in the making.
It’s not that Allen nor Chikadze cannot produce an optimal score – but the path feels thin and the floor feels extremely low.
Allen is priced up to 9k, and he’s extremely boom or bust at this number. He’s quite low volume typically, and now fighting an opponent with striking skills, who only absorbs 3.44 per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate.
If Allen wrestled a lot, I’d change my mind, but he only averages 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s actually only taken down one of his past six opponents, so there’s no reason to feel confident he’ll wrestle with urgency.
Chikadze is now 35 so Allen has youth on his side, but that’s the only real numerical sign that points toward any upside whatsoever. Allen is +260 to win ITD which is pretty weak at this price tag, but still “fine” I suppose.
Allen has won 10 times in the UFC, and he’s only topped 82 points one time. That’s about as poor as it gets. Sure, he could randomly knock out Chikadze in RD 1 or in the first 60 seconds and be optimal, but I’m not betting on it. Otherwise you’re praying for aggressive grappling.
I’d lean toward a fade personally with a more limited number of lineups, but feel free to sprinkle him in as a contrarian target if you wish.
Chikadze at 7.2k interests me a tiny bit as I feel this line should be closer, but I don’t think Chikadze has much upside either.
He’s not going to wrestle and Allen is incredibly tough. Chikadze is also low-volume and Allen absorbs strikes at a low rate, with a good defensive number. At least Chikadze has knocked down five different opponents though.
Chikadze is only +450 to win ITD and a victory for him probably comes by decision, and scores in the 70 point range. It’s likely not enough, and it’s not a crazy idea to fade him outright as well.
I don’t completely hate it as he saves a lot of salary and can win, but I really don’t like the fantasy upside. On a very large slate, I’m going to prioritize other options with better ceilings, and ultimately I’ll end up extremely light on this fight as a whole.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Allen by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
Fight Odds: Wood -423, Pineda +325
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Wood 9.5k, Pineda 6.7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am always excited to see Nathaniel Wood fight. He has a bit of a layup matchup here at home against the unreliable Daniel Pineda.
Wood is pretty well-rounded, and I don’t consider him to have any major weaknesses. He is a competent and skilled striker. He lands 5.91 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.22 in return. He has pretty skilled boxing and a really good check left hook. He also has consistent and damaging calf kicks which he has demonstrated several times. Calf kicks are a hallmark to his game.
I do think Wood is a bit hittable at times though. He absorbs a lot of strikes and defends strikes at an okay 56 percent. He has also been knocked out in the past and hurt a few times, even on the regionals. So him randomly getting bonked is always a possibility. He is still generally outlanding his opponents but being hit is always a recipe for variance.
Wood is also a capable grappler. He lands 1.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed a takedown in 8/10 UFC fights. He is capable on top of passing, advancing position, and locking in submissions. I wouldn’t completely count on him to outgrapple decent grapplers. However, he can absolutely take advantage of poor wrestlers and grapplers. He also has pretty good TDD at 70 percent.
Wood will be taking on Daniel Pineda. Pineda is okay. He has some skills and is somewhat dangerous. He is an okay striker. He lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.18 in return. He is dangerous and is capable of knocking guys out and hurting them.
However, I just don’t trust Pineda as a striker over the course of fifteen minutes. He has literally never won a decision in 43 pro fights.
Swanson and Fili both doubled him up and were dominating him before the fights ended. I kind of just question Pineda’s durability and cardio, and ability to fight through 15 minutes.
Pineda is a dangerous submission grappler though too. I don’t consider him a great wrestler or anything but he is decent and capable of landing takedowns here and there. He has a lot of submission wins in his career and I consider it a path to victory for him at this level.
Pineda is decent in terms of skills. He can strike and grapple in spots and has finishing upside in general. However, I just don’t trust him to win fights unless he finishes people and that is why I have to pick Wood in this matchup.
My guess is Pineda will come out aggressively and pursue takedowns, and try to submit Wood. Or hunt for the KO. If that doesn’t work, Wood will probably just take over and dominate the fight, and eventually finish Pineda.
My guess is Wood will survive too. Wood is a skilled grappler in general and has never been submitted in his career. He is going to have a massive cardio and durational striking advantage here. So I think he will survive the early storm, put Pineda through adversity, and eventually get the finish.
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On DraftKings, Wood is priced up to 9.5k which is more expensive than we’re used to, and it could be a challenge prioritizing him over some other names in this range.
Especially as he’s coming off another loss, with a limited history of fantasy smash scores, it isn’t easy to trust Wood at this price. Simply targeting Aspinall or another cheaper fighter makes a lot of sense, and I don’t think you have to roster Wood in this range.
There’s also the issue that even if Wood scores well, he could be outproduced by another in this range, or be locked out of the optimal due to price/construction.
However, I still like his chances to score in this particular matchup. There’s some concern about floor as he could get hurt, but Wood fights at a decent pace and has an opponent in front of him who often tires and quits.
Wood could very realistically find himself in a situation where he has some early competitive minutes, but gets a gassed Pineda by round two, which would allow Wood to swarm for the finish. Those types of results definitely can score very well.
Wood is -115 to win ITD which is pretty good. Odds are that the fight hits round two though so that’s one mild concern, but a mid-round finish with lots of offensive production could still allow him to reach a ceiling.
Obviously pricing is a factor here and that will mean I won’t end up heavy on Wood, but I’m guessing he won’t be heavily owned by the public either. He still has a clear path to winning ITD, and with a fast pace in general, I like Wood overall and consider him a strong fantasy option.
Pineda at 6.7k is someone who I would still consider in tournaments, despite all the negatives.
It’s mentioned in the breakdown but Pineda has fought 40+ times and never won a decision. Yes, he’s probably going to be tired by round two but he can still fight effectively early, and Wood gets hurt a lot.
Wood gets hurt too much. He was known for it on the regionals, and he was just knocked down by Fili two fights ago. I don’t think Pineda KOs him at a high rate but there’s so much variance in striking exchanges, and early damage is possible.
Regardless, if Pineda wins, it’s very likely to come early ITD and push him onto optimal contention. He’ll be extremely low owned, with some leverage against Wood.
He’s still a pure punt play at +400 to win ITD and I kind of like Blaydes and even Crosbie more in this range. But I wouldn’t mind a sprinkle of Pineda for upside, because as long as he is fresh, he’s still quite effective and has a world of MMA experience.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wood by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil
Fight Odds: McCann -338, Brasil +270
Odds to Finish: +100
DraftKings Salaries: McCann 9.2k, Brasil 7k
Weight Class: 115
Despite her antics, I’ve always enjoyed watching Molly McCann fight as she brings an aggressive pace for the women’s strawweight division, and she’ll be looking to put her stamp on the fight this weekend against Bruna Brasil.
McCann has had her ups and downs throughout her UFC career, which launched back in 2018 when she was easily submitted by Gillian Robertson.
Since that point, McCann has won seven of 11 performances, and there have been some crazy finishes both for and against her.
Most notably, McCann KOd Luana Carolina with a spinning back elbow in 2022, and she did the same to Hannah Goldy one fight later. She’s also coming off an impressive first-round sub over Diana Belbita in February.
She’s faced a lot of adversity too, primarily on the mat, where both Erin Blanchfield and Julija Stoliarenko finished her in the first round in recent years.
The sample on McCann is pretty strong at this point though, and I feel comfortable with who she is as a fighter. She’s an up-paced boxer, who packs considerable power for this division, as well as clear round-winning volume.
McCann is landing 5.79 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.94 per minute, with a 63 percent defensive rate. She’s exceeded the 100 strike mark several times, including topping out at 113 and 127.
McCann can also wrestle a bit. She lands 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes and has been very willing to mix it up, given the right opponent. Many fighters in this division are weak wrestlers, so the occasional takedown for McCann has been very helpful and a welcome part of her game.
Unfortunately, her defensive grappling is still a disaster. She only defends at 43 percent and has been severely outgrappled in literally all of her losses.
That’s really where the rubber meets the road. When McCann is facing a legit grappler, there’s no reason to be confident in her. Against any random opponent who can strike a bit, McCann is a deserving favorite.
She’ll be taking on Bruna Brasil this weekend who I am not a big fan of, and have already bet against on multiple occasions.
Brasil earned her contract on DWCS in 2022 with an impressive head kick knockout over Marnic Mann, but I still wasn’t a big fan of her talent. She then got destroyed as a favorite by Denise Gomes in her debut, and most recently lost a clear decision to Loma Lookboonmee.
In between, she picked up a decision win over Shauna Bannon who is pretty low-level as well.
Brasil only has a few wins by knockout on her record and a couple more by submission. She’s a kickboxer but she fights in a karate style stance, and her best weapons are her kicks.
In a pure stand-up fight, Brasil has potential to keep range, and pick apart opponents. However, I tend not to trust in this style long term and I have a lot of worries about it.
One worry is with her physicality. I don’t think Brasil is a super great athlete and I don’t necessarily trust in her power.
I also don’t trust in her volume. I watched one of her LFA fights that was incredibly slow paced, and she landed 40 sig. strikes in 10 minutes on DWCS. In her two UFC decisions, Brasil has only landed 56 and 28 strikes, which backs up my point. She’s currently averaging only 2.94 sig. strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 3.92 per minute.
She wants to fight in slower paced matchups because she needs kicking range, and when she’s winning, I expect the fight to be somewhat boring.
I’m also extremely skeptical about her defensive grappling, which currently sits at 53 percent.
On DWCS, Brasil was facing a really weak opponent, both technically and physically, and she still gave up three takedowns. She was able to reverse position and probably had better submission skills, but that concerned me. In her LFA fight, she got taken down a couple of times and put up very little resistance.
In the UFC, Denise Gomes took her down three times and Loma Lookboonmee took her down as well. She’s simply not a great wrestler.
I’ve seen her defend with guillotine chokes a bunch, and both of her subs have come by guillotine. She also holds onto the neck too long after getting taken down, which is a red flag.
Brasil has landed some takedowns of her own too. Her offensive wrestling is adequate but I would only favor her to have success against a very low tier of competition.
Mostly, I think Brasil has some upside in stand-up matchups where she can control range and fight technically. I don’t think she’s a major knockout threat. She will probably have ground success against a low-level of competition, but I expect her to lose dominantly to strong wrestlers and well-rounded fighters.
I feel pretty good about McCann fitting the mold of a fighter who should beat Brasil, and she’s rightfully favored so the public clearly agrees.
Brasil can still make fights weird and boring though. Since she doesn’t like to engage, and wants to stick on the outside in kicking range, McCann will have to pursue her. There’s always some potential that she’s unable to cut off the cage, and ends up just chasing Brasil around the Octagon exactly like Bannon did.
That could favor Brasil where she can throw kicks from the outside and disengage.
Brasil can also potentially have wrestling success. She’s averaging 1.59 takedowns per 15 minutes and projecting her to attempt a few takedowns in this matchup makes sense. I don’t consider Brasil a real threat on the mat though, so my concerns compared to a legitimate sub grappler are minimal.
Still, Brasil at least has outs. She’s better at kicking range and there’s some path to victory on top of McCann.
I still think it’s much more likely McCann can pressure effectively. The thing about fighters who specialize at kicking distance is that they’re vulnerable on the inside. If McCann can enter the pocket, she might just pound on Brasil and knock her out.
The fact that Brasil doesn’t land a ton of volume is really limiting here because McCann will chase her down, and optics should favor her, as will the screaming home crowd. I don’t think Brasil has the volume to physically match the pace of McCann, and over 15 minutes, I’d lean toward McCann clearly throwing and landing more strikes.
Brasil’s durability is also a question mark, or at least a concern for me. It’s something I noted prior to her debut and watching her get dumped by Gomes wasn’t a great look. McCann very likely can damage Brasil at some point and potentially find a stoppage.
I also think McCann can wrestle here. Perhaps it won’t be her primary game plan but Brasil isn’t strong defensively and McCann might choose to mix it up on the mat, if she can get on the inside.
Either way, I just prefer the offense that McCann will put out over 15 minutes, as well as her effectiveness in every area.
—
On DraftKings, McCann is another intriguing option in the top range though her path to a ceiling is a bit different from the other options.
Largely, we like McCann because of pacing. Most of the other fighters in this range desperately need a finish, where McCann can land 120+ strikes with multiple takedowns. That gives her a much higher floor than most, though perhaps a tougher path to a ceiling.
Where her ceiling does come into play though is with a finish, which could come at any time. She beat Carolina by third-round TKO in 2022 but it came with so much offensive production that she still put up 110 points.
Also, we’ve seen her surpass 90 points multiple times in decisions, and she even has a 109-point score in a decision which came with five takedowns.
I think it’s fair to prioritize other fighters in this range, for obvious reasons. McCann is only +155 to win ITD and Brasil will try to fight at distance and slow the fight down. McCann could win and score in the mid-80s.
But if she pressures aggressively, I’m really not sure Brasil has the defense to stay conscious in pocket boxing exchanges. She was KOd in her UFC debut for the same reasons against a similarly aggressive fighter in Gomes.
McCann might just march her down and get on the inside, where she could maul Brasil. It may not be a super high percentage outcome but it’s a pretty reasonable one.
I clearly want exposure to the finishing equity in this range too, but McCann has a very strong floor/ceiling combination with multiple paths to get there, and she’s cheaper at 9.2k. All things considered, I like McCann a decent amount.
Brasil at 7k is viable for two thoughts. One thought is that McCann will force the pace, and so if Brasil is to win, she will have to keep up. It gives her a theoretically decent floor and moderate ceiling in any kind of win.
Additionally, McCann essentially has always lost via grappling domination. While Brasil does not project to win like that, I think it’s possible she could land a couple of takedowns. I’m not opposed to the thought that she could lock up a random armbar or something, though I’d be pissed if that happened.
Brasil is only +500 to win ITD and doesn’t rate out well, and really shouldn’t be a priority within this range either. With a limited portfolio, I am going to chase finishing upside elsewhere in this range.
You could talk me into a tiny bit of exposure to her though, even if as a hedge. She could also theoretically lose a competitive decision and score OK for the price, so her floor is better than others.
I’m pretty low on her talent and style to score fantasy points though, so I won’t end up with much exposure.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: McCann by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley
Fight Odds: Loughran -207, Hadley +175
Odds to Finish: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Loughran 8.7k, Hadley 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
Taking this fight on one week’s notice, Jake Hadley will step up to the bantamweight division to face Caolan Loughran.
It’s actually a somewhat surprising booking, even as a last-minute replacement, and it doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Hadley, who has lost back-to-back fights at flyweight.
We’ve seen Hadley put his submission grappling on display in the Octagon, submitting some lower-level opponents and threatening others at times, but he doesn’t seem to carry a lot of depth in his game otherwise.
Hadley is 10-3 professionally with five of those wins coming by submission, and another few by knockout. Hadley is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and that’s definitely his biggest strength. He’s a threat from the bottom and in transition, and he needs to be respected in that area.
However, his wrestling is quite poor, which is a major red flag for me when aiming to back a submission oriented fighter. Through six tracked bouts, Hadley has only landed one takedown, which actually came on DWCS over Mitch Raposo.
He’s currently averaging only 0.24 takedowns per 15 minutes and his accuracy sits at 6 percent, which is awful. Defensively, it’s not much better. He’s defending takedowns at 35 percent, and just doesn’t pass the eye test in terms of competence.
You can make the argument that he’s OK to be taken down because he’s comfortable on his back, which is true, but unless he can turn that into a submission, it’s still a recipe to lose rounds and the fight.
As a striker, Hadley is mediocre. He likes to pressure, but he’s not very effective. He’s only landing 3.36 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.56 per minute, and he’s coming off a loss to Charles Johnson which he was outlanded 66 to 46 at distance.
Even Cody Durden outlanded him 30 to 23 at distance.
Hadley has one nice performance where he landed 90 sig. strikes, over a weak opponent in Carlos Candelario, but a large chunk of those came on the ground and he was still outstruck 67 to 65 at distance.
Essentially, there is nowhere where Hadley is going to be winning cleanly, unless he’s attempting a submission. There, he’s dangerous.
I don’t think it’s a great matchup on paper because Caolan Loughran is better suited for bantamweight, more physical, and the clearly superior wrestler.
Loughran had a tough debut against Taylor Lapilus, but most recently beat Angel Pacheo in a fast-paced 15-minute affair.
Loughran previously held the Cage Warriors bantamweight title, which is a promotion Hadley fought in as well, and I consider him an OK prospect.
Loughran is best on the ground where he’s a physical wrestler and a good submission grappler. HIs style is weird though.
He’ll pressure pretty intensely, looking to draw out reactions from his opponents. But he’ll put his hands way out there just hoping to get reactions, and it’s not a traditional boxing guard.
I don’t love his striking and I don’t think that’s where he will have primary success in the UFC outside of the physical aspect. He definitely hits hard and earned a recent standing knockout win on the regionals, but he doesn’t really move his head and I think he’s defensively liable.
Volume is interesting because prior to his most recent bout, I considered Loughran a low-volume guy. He only landed 48 sig. strikes against Lapilus while absorbing 84 in a fight that mostly played out on the feet.
In his last bout against Pacheco, he was kinda forced to up the pace, and he actually landed 140 total sig. strikes, with 97 of them coming at distance. Granted, he got hit quite a bit and was bloodied up a little, but the fact that he could physically manage to throw that many strikes is a big win.
I won’t be stoked to see Loughran strike, but he may have more potential than I thought as far as being able to keep rounds competitive. I do worry that he’ll eventually get hit hard enough to be hurt, or the volume will regress again and he’ll struggle to consistently win rounds.
The grappling is where I think he can have success though. I’m not sure exactly what his background is but I think he’s competed at the regional ADCC level. I’d probably rate him to be an above-average grappler, which is also aided by his physicality.
His upside is diving in on double legs against the cage, landing takedowns, and getting the back. From there his control is decent, and he can win with ground-and-pound or a submission.
Loughran was able to have some success against Lapilus and that’s exactly how he earned it – double legs against the cage and control, which won him the second round. Unfortunately, he was only able to go 2 for 11 on takedown attempts, which wasn’t enough to swing the other rounds in his favor.
Against Pacheco who is a poor wrestler, Loughran landed three takedowns on four attempts, controlled him for five minutes and had some dominant positions on occasion like the back.
In total, I do like Loughran. He probably only rates out to be an average talent long term, but I think he can cleanly beat the lower tier of the division and he might be able to hang around for a while against mid-tier comp as he’s still only 28.
As far as the matchup, it’s pretty obvious to me that Loughran is the better wrestler, and he’s the one with a full camp. He should be able to take Hadley down whenever he wants, and that could lead to control and clear round wins.
The problem is wrestling will also probably give Hadley his best chance to win. I am sure he’ll try to jump on guillotines, and perhaps he could force Loughran to make a mistake. While I would be happy to see Loughran wrestle, it’s very much within the realm of possibility that he could get caught in a sub, even if he’s winning.
The stand-up could also be weird as Hadley can be aggressive at times, and I’m not sold on Loughran. Still, Hadley doesn’t throw a ton of volume and has never really outpaced opponents, so Loughran should be fine there as long as he doesn’t get badly hurt.
Realistically, even if the stand-up is competitive, Loughran is going to try and wrestle where he can win rounds and maybe even win them dominantly. He’ll just have to mind his Ps and Qs and avoid some submission attempts. I’m pretty hopeful he can get it done but there’s always some worry about making a costly mistake and being forced to tap.
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On DraftKings, Loughran looks to be a very strong mid-range option and one I will probably end up with moderate exposure to.
He’s priced at 8.7k, so it’s borderline mid-range, but the tier priced directly above him has some pretty questionable upside.
Loughran is coming off a win that scored 111 points, and considering the short notice dynamic, he could be a popular fighter here. I’m not extremely confident that his striking pace is predictive, but the wrestling dynamic is somewhat obvious.
There’s a very good chance that Loughran will land multiple takedowns, and earn 5-10 minutes of control in a win. That, plus a decent striking pace could get him to 100 points or more on DK, and push him into optimal contention. If not, his floor should still be very strong.
My main concern is that Loughran is only +275 to win ITD. It’s because Hadley is probably the better submission grappler so if Loughran does get on top, he might not be able to produce a lot of offense and could even be forced to defend.
Being a more physical wrestler could also give him a path to easy control and a back take, but I’m not super confident that he dominates early. He could also want to strike early, knowing Hadley prefers to grapple.
I think eventually, Loughran will wrestle. Unless he’s just mauling Hadley on the feet. If it’s competitive at all, Loughran should shoot takedowns and put Hadley on his butt. And then he could rack up lots of control.
So, I like Loughran here for that dynamic and for the price. His floor is safe and he has a clear 100+ ceiling with a clear path to wrestling success. I do fear that his absolute ceiling will be limited due to Hadley’s submission game though, and so perhaps I will dial back my exposure a little bit.
Remember, with 14 winners on this slate, I think there’s less of a need to take extreme stands as a simple “very good score” may not be enough to be optimal. But overall Loughran rates out pretty well for the price and I think it’s a favorable matchup for him to score.
Hadley at 7.5k is worth low-end consideration due to his submission ability.
He is actually dangerous in transition, and you really never know how much submission defense fighters train. I never really trust it. Hadley could also win at any time as jumping on a guillotine might be the only option for him late, though I think it’s more likely to come early.
Hadley won’t have any real wrestling upside though, and I’m not high on his striking volume. It mostly comes down to a submission threat. He’s +450 to win ITD which is not great either, and I don’t love the matchup for him.
I personally won’t end up with much exposure here, even though I’m mildly nervous about it. With a larger portfolio, low-end exposure makes sense as Hadley at least does carry a finishing path and a ceiling because of it.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Loughran by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
Fight Odds: Bukauskas -150, Prachnio +130
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Bukauskas 8.5k, Prachnio 7.7k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Marcin Prachnio is looking to make it two in a row when he takes on Modestas Bukauskas this weekend. This is a bit of an ugly fight as I don’t totally trust either fighter.
I mostly consider Prachnio a striker. He has only landed one takedown in the UFC. His grappling seemed okay on the regionals, but I generally expect him to strike at this level.
Prachnio lands 5.61 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.30 in return. He defends strikes at 54 percent. Prachnio uses a decent outside game to kick and stay out of range. I consider his kicks to be decent. He will target the legs and the body.
Prachnio landed 40 leg kicks against Khalil Rountree, which was good. He also landed 100 total distance strikes in that fight. It was a good amount of output from Prachnio. I actually liked that performance by him. He also landed 101 significant strikes in his last matchup against Devin Clark. I generally do like the output of Prachnio.
When fights get extended, Prachnio looks decent. However, Prachnio was knocked out in his first three UFC fights, all in the first round. So his durability is obviously a concern and I will never fully trust Prachnio to win fights. His chin is just a liability.
Prachnio also got outwrestled by Phillipe Lins. He was taken down four times on 11 attempts and controlled for 5:28. It was a bit concerning to me as decent grapplers can have success against him. He did stifle Clark recently though and defends takedowns at 58 percent.
Prachnio will be taking on Modesta Bukauskas. Bukauskas is basically a low to medium volume tepid striker. I don’t think all that highly of him. He has never even landed a takedown in the UFC. He is a decent defensive wrestler though and defends takedowns at 71 percent.
Bukauskas lands 3.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.87 in return. Those aren’t good metrics and I basically just consider Bukauskas a mild talent on the feet. He does have a little power, but I just don’t like his volume. In his 3 decisions in the UFC, he landed 58, 44, and 56 significant strikes. That is just not trustworthy.
I basically just expect Bukauskas to get outworked in most fights, unless he wins a competitive decision or wins by knockout. He will likely never win clearly unless he is fighting someone awful, or randomly obtains a knockout.
That is why I am actually surprised that he is the favorite against Prachnio. These guys basically never wrestle so we are likely to get a striking fight where Prachnio is much busier on paper. If this goes to the cards, I honestly just favor Prachnio moderately based on workrate. He has at least topped 100 significant strikes before. So I am going to pick him to win.
This is still a messy fight and neither fighter is a legitimate talent. Perhaps Prachnio gets bonked here. He has been knocked out several times and Bukauskas does have some okay power. However, I am going to go with the minute winner here as I think Prachnio’s numbers speak for themselves compared to Bukauskas’ numbers.
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On DraftKings, this is going to be a sweaty fight and I’m leaning toward having enough exposure so that it does not kill me.
Prachnio started his UFC career by getting knocked down four times in his first nine minutes of action, which included three devastating KO losses. I’m shocked he’s been able to recover from it, but he’s now safely fought through 75+ consecutive minutes without getting dropped.
Bukauskas has been KOd in three of his four UFC losses, though one was due to a knee injury, he’s still been rocked and dropped several times.
These fighters are really borderline as far as durability, and I’m nervous to just ignore the matchup from a fantasy perspective for that reason.
The issue is Bukauskas throws no offense. He doesn’t wrestle. He’s a complete bust candidate at 8.5k without a quick KO, and based on how little he does in fights, it’s extremely difficult to ever click his name.
He’s only +240 to win ITD here as well. Bukauskas won’t be popular and isn’t an appealing fantasy option. He’s never scored 100 points.
However, his path to victory is somewhat tied to damage, and we know Prachnio can be put unconscious early. It’s not a super likely outcome in my mind but considering Bukauskas will be contrarian on a large slate, it’s not the worst idea to mix him in a little bit.
I do like this mid-range quite a bit and although Bukauskas is near the bottom of my interest list, I’ll sprinkle him in a tiny bit.
Prachnio at least throws volume, and can surpass 100 significant strikes. Does that matter at lot 7.7k? Probably not.
He’s coming off a 79-point decision win and his win prior to that scored 62 points. He’s another clear bust candidate without much grappling equity, especially considering Bukauskas likes to slow the pace down.
But similarly, Bukauskas can be hurt, and also Prachnio still does have a clear path to victory via volume. He’s +325 to win ITD but I give him some KO equity, enough for me to make a small investment at this price.
Again, I am expecting low ownerships here so Prachnio is largely contrarian. He’s not my favorite dog or someone I love for his ceiling expectations. But the fight isn’t a lock to go the distance, and I don’t mind a bit of Prachnio for this price in mid-range builds, as he has some potential to be a differentiator.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Prachnio by Decision (Confidence=-Low)
Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons
Fight Odds: Parsons -144, Elliott +125
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Parsons 8.6k, Elliott 7.6k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting fight here as the rising Preston Parsons will be taking on Oban Elliott.
I actually like Parsons. He isn’t great, but he has a pretty tenacious grappling game and will attempt a lot of takedowns. He attempts nine takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 4.30. He landed four takedowns against Evan Elder, three against Trevin Giles, and seven against Matthew Semelsberger. He also has a decent gas tank and can wrestle hard for 15 minutes.
Parsons is a bit raw though and he can sometimes get a little too excited and lose position on the mat. His top control isn’t great, but I honestly don’t think it is bad either. He does have decent get-ups though and will work to his feet if he ends in bottom position.
Parsons is okay as a striker. He is not good or technical. However, he is tough and will come forward, and look to land in combination which sometimes leads to success for him.
I just think Parsons is a fine UFC level fighter. He can strike a bit, wrestle a bit, and he puts up a lot of offense. He has also beaten a couple of quality fighters now and clearly belongs in this promotion.
Parsons will be taking on Oban Elliott. I am going to be honest here. I am quite certain that Elliott is a fraud.
I said it before his UFC debut against Val Woodburn, and I still hold that view even though he won that fight. He basically got hurt by Woodburn, but then won the fight by moderately outlanding Woodburn at distance and obtaining some takedowns and body triangles. Woodburn is TERRIBLE though and still landed two takedowns against Elliott which was concerning.
Elliott won a majority decision on the Contender Series back in August of last year. He outlanded his opponent 36-31 at distance, landed four takedowns, and obtained 4:25 of control.
Elliott is British and is 10-2 professionally with most of his fights taking place in Cage Warriors which is a solid regional promotion.
On the feet, he has some okay technical boxing, but I do not like his volume at all and he looks to just limit striking engagements. I don’t think he is awful on the feet but I do not think he is good either. I have also seen him hurt standing as well. He has a little speed and a little technicality but that is about it. He also likes to just back up and move away, and limit engagements.
Elliott likes to mix in takedowns occasionally. He has a decent double leg, and he at least will mix in a healthy dosage of takedown attempts. The issue is I don’t actually think he is a good wrestler. He also doesn’t have the best top control.
Furthermore, in his two losses, I have seen him taken down, mounted, beat up and finished. I am also not quite confident in his physicality either. He looked really vulnerable in those two losses in the grappling exchanges in general.
I also just don’t know how dangerous this guy is. He has won by decision in his last five fights and most of his finishes have come against guys with sub 500 records. Usually these guys don’t come to the UFC and randomly become prolific finishers. I am honestly shocked he couldn’t finish Woodburn either.
He looks like he can semi strike, semi land takedowns but that is about it. I am not even sure he is good at either of those things and he may be a defensive liability on the mat.
That is why I really like Parsons in this matchup. Just from a macro perspective, the quality of competition difference here is insane. I honestly think all four fighters that Parsons has fought in the UFC are better than Elliott. Elliott has never beaten anyone even remotely close to Parsons’ caliber either. So if these two start fighting and Parsons has Elliott covered everywhere, I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
I honestly think that is going to happen too. My eyes tell me that Parsons is the better wrestler here. I do think Elliott can land takedowns, but I do not think he will have an easy time holding Parsons down. I also just think Parsons’ pace is better too. The face that I saw guys taking down and mounting Elliott on the regionals just suggests that Parsons may just run him over on the mat.
On the feet, I honestly favor Parsons based on pace and durability. I really do not think Elliott likes to get hit and I question his chin. So I am betting Parsons here as I really tend to think he is going to just be a class above Elliott in all areas.
Perhaps I am wrong and Elliott ends up being better than I am giving him credit for. I do think it is at least possible. I still don’t think he can run away with this fight either way though. Elliott will probably just strike and grapple competitively with Parsons and hope he wins a competitive decision.
So give me Parsons here. I think he is far more proven and my eyes tell me that he is the better overall fighter and that Elliott is currently overvalued.
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On DraftKings, the matchup analysis will lead straight into the fantasy analysis which means Parsons is squarely on my radar.
I’ve actually seen quite a bit of love for him in the betting markets this week, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up chalky. Elliott does not rate out as a legit prospect, and I think many see that.
Parsons at 8.6k is not trustworthy either, so I’m a bit hesitant to just shove all my chips in, but I do like him a lot. He can wrestle at a moderate pace, and Elliott has both durability and gas tank issues.
Parsons has scored 108 and 114 in his two UFC wins, both of which came by decision, which is another signal that he may be chalky. He’s +165 to win ITD which isn’t bad but clearly he can perform well enough in a decision to exceed value as well.
It’s also the price tag. There’s a few strong mid-range fights that feel competitive. This one feels more like Parsons is deserving of a moderate favorite status. At 8.6k, he’s among my favorite options in this range.
Elliott at 7.6k is still in play.
Clearly, I don’t love his talent, but my guess is that he carries upside in a win. I’m not even sure how a win would look for Elliott but it’s probably damage or grappling. Parsons has been knocked out before.
Elliott just scored 102 in his UFC debut as well, and he’s +325 to win ITD here.
There are other dogs I like more, clearly, and others who are cheaper with obvious upside as well, so you don’t need a ton of exposure to Elliott. But there’s some chance that we’re undervaluing him, or overvaluing Parsons, and his betting line implies he has a real chance to win.
It’s possible Elliott will provide considerable leverage against Parsons, with a moderate ceiling. The combination of those things definitely put him in play for tournaments.
I will probably only play him as a sort of hedge, but I think secondary exposure to Elliott is fine on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Parsons by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
Fight Odds: Mokaev -157, Kape +136
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Mokaev 8.4k, Kape 7.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential title eliminator here as Muhammad Mokaev will be taking on Manel Kape in the flyweight division.
Mokaev is a volume wrestler through and through. He has won all six of his UFC fights by outwrestling his opponents.
Mokaev lands 5.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts nearly 12 takedowns per fight. I personally love that consistency and consider Mokaev a strong wrestler. He is also very tenacious and is capable of submissions on the mat.
I do think Mokaev lacks in physicality a bit though and that did show in his most recent matchup against Alex Perez, where he finally failed to completely dominate on the mat. However, Perez is a very strong defensive wrestler, and I think Mokaev can outwrestle most of this division.
As a striker, Mokaev isn’t great and lands 1.53 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.36 in return. He generally looks to just limit engagements and land takedowns. Although, I do think his striking looked surprisingly okay against Perez, even though it wasn’t pretty either.
Still though, Mokaev’s wrestling is his bread and butter and he is consistently going to have to use wrestling to win fights in the high tier of this weight class.
Mokaev will be taking on Manel Kape. I don’t mind Kape and he has won four straight fights. He has some skills and he is a good athlete.
I mostly consider Kape a striker. He does a good job springing in and out of range with his strikes. He has a good low rear kick and sharp / fast hands. I consider him to have above-average power for this weight class and two of his four UFC wins have come by knockout.
Kape lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.51. That isn’t great. However, he has generally fought good guys.
I will say that the Pantoja fight was a little concerning to me. The fight took place exclusively at range and Kape only landed 49 of 91 distance strikes attempted.
That is just concerning. I know Pantoja is good so I will forgive Kape to a degree. However, Kape is not exactly a guy I will be very confident in winning on the feet if he isn’t landing big shots.
I don’t think he is necessarily a KO or bust fighter though, and his volume has looked okay in other fights. He actually just landed 112 significant strikes against Dos Santos. However, I am less confident in Kape if he isn’t landing power shots which aren’t always easy to predict and sometimes just don’t happen.
I consider Kape a decent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 77 percent and is pretty athletic and hard to get ahold of. However, he has been outgrappled in spots on the regional scene. He was also held down for a bit against Nicolau and Dvorak.
I really didn’t like Kape’s get-ups in those fights. The rounds ended and he was only held down for about a minute. However, those guys did not attempt takedowns tenaciously like Mokaev will, and Mokaev is a better wrestler than both of them.
That is why I sneakily like Mokaev here. Kape has never faced a volume wrestler before. The few times Kape has faced takedowns, he has been taken down and held down. He hasn’t been completely exposed yet though, which I think is why we are getting a discount on Mokaev here.
I just really tend to think Mokaev is going to succeed on the mat here. I think he will attempt his usual double digit takedowns which will probably result in 4+ takedowns or more throughout 15 minutes. When I project that many takedowns with top time upside for a fighter, I am going to project them to win the fight at a decent clip. So I really like Mokaev here, more than the betting market even does.
This is a binary fight though and Kape is a better and more dangerous striker than Mokaev. So if this fight plays out on the feet for whatever reason, Mokaev can clearly lose. However, Mokaev is just good at avoiding shots and limiting engagements. Kape also struggles with output at times. So I tend to think the striking moments of Kape will be few and far between and the wrestling of Mokaev will be the difference on the scorecards.
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On DraftKings, this is a similar situation to Jandiroba vs. Lemos last week, with another pretty competitive betting line.
I don’t really expect the fight to play out competitively. Either Mokaev can land takedowns, or he can’t. If he can, he’ll control Kape and likely win cleanly. If he’s forced to strike, he’ll lose and maybe get hurt.
There are likely limits to Mokaev’s game, and it is important to remember he’s still super young at 23 years old. But if he does win, it’s going to come from wrestling and that’s why he can be a focal point on DraftKings.
At 8.4k, Mokaev is among my favorite targets on the slate for his ability to exceed value in a victory. In wins, he’s scored 120, 122, 99, 102 and 74. You could argue that this is his toughest matchup to date, but I’m not sure it matters as far as scoring potential. I’d also say Alex Perez is a better wrestler than Kape, who was the one to limit Mokaev’s scoring to 74.
We could get lower ownership than usual though, especially on a 14 fight slate. His box scores are pretty strong though and having never lost a fight, he’ll likely still be popular.
I think this is an easy secondary target where you should be getting near field exposure to a fighter who could dominate on the ground in a win, even if you’re not super confident in him.
Or, you could just jam him in and hope for the best. That’s probably where I’ll lean and I’d like to be overweight to the field personally. Mokaev is only +320 to win ITD here but I don’t think it matters a ton and I’m willing to chase his grappling upside regardless.
Kape is priced at 7.8k and I’ll have similar analysis to what I spoke about Lemos last week.
In theory, Kape is a strong upside target in a binary matchup where he could win ITD. The problem is that if Mokaev is having any success whatsoever, that will essentially zero out the points Kape is scoring.
I don’t think Kape will be attempting takedowns in this fight, and Mokaev is only absorbing 1.36 strikes per minute. If forced to strike, he’ll lose, but getting outvolumed won’t be enough.
Kape really has to finish the fight and probably finish early, on a super deep slate where we’re surely to see big scores. He’s only +285 to win ITD (up from +355) which is mediocre and another mild concern.
I think Kape is fine for the pure sense of a binary matchup. He has some KO equity. He might be more popular than he’s worth based on recent box scores, and he is super boom or bust with a thin path to reaching a ceiling.
Targeting a bit of Kape for upside or as a hedge is fine, and I may do that with a bit, but I don’t love the matchup for Kape and I’ll be prioritizing other fighters in this range personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mokaev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie
Fight Odds: Patterson -454, Crosbie +345
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Patterson 9.3k, Crosbie 6.9k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Sam Patterson’s a Contender Series alum who dropped the ball in his debut last year but rebounded with a quick finish over Yohan Lainesse – he’s 1-1 in the UFC and 11-2-1 as a pro. Kiefer Crosbie was a 7-fight vet of the Bellator promotion who got the call to the UFC last year on the heels of knocking out UFC vet Alex Oliveira on the regionals – he’s 0-1 in the UFC and 10-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Despite moving up in weight recently, Patterson won’t be an undersized guy at 170 in terms of length as he stands 6’3” with a 78” reach.
He’s a grappler by base but has shown good work in the stand up as well. He’s a not an uber volume guy and more so falls into the methodical, pick you apart type of category.
As a result, he’s not super flashy but does the basics well offensively in utilizing long straight shots, good calf kicks and will begin to unload on his opponents with clean combos who he feels are hurt – but isn’t reckless either which is something I like.
So, he’s not a pure power guy but it’s more so his timing, accuracy and attritional work being what leads to his striking based finishes.
However, being as lanky as he is, Patterson does have elements of “tall man’s defense”.
He tends to use his range effectively for the most part but when guys do get inside on him, he’s getting cracked – we saw that specifically in two of his more recent fights where he got hurt early by Cenci and Ashmouz clocked Patterson off a lazy kick in his debut, putting him down early.
Patterson was also KO’d in his 1st pro loss back in 2017 and we have seen him buckled on a few other occasions.
So, what I garner from Patterson is that he’s going to need a “prettier” type of fight to really excel on the feet and will probably struggle in the dog fights against opponents who can apply effective pressure. His chin is also questionable now and he will be facing bigger hitters at 170 in comparison to 155.
Crosbie’s a stockier 170er standing 5’11 with a 70” reach that comes from a karate and kickboxing background.
We’ve seen a bit all over the board from him in terms of approach as he’s been a bit more aggressive in recent years and willing to sit down on his punches.
But he’s also had spurts where he’s fought like a more traditional tepid outside guy, looking to point fight. When he’s fought in that slower pace, his fights have been close where margins aren’t large.
When he’s been more aggressive, it’s worked sometimes and not in others.
Charlie Leary beat the absolute crap out of him which wasn’t the best of looks and more recently, he landed some clean shots on Jousset but struggled with the length and technicality of Jousset where he was getting broken down not that long into the fight.
He beat Alex Oliveira up a few fights back which is a good win on paper, but Oliveria is also pretty washed at this point so it’s not something I’d look too much into.
Overall, the sample for Crosbie still makes him a bit difficult to assess but he’s clearly going to struggle with longer, more accurate strikers going forward.
How it plays out: Crosbie should come hot out of the gate here because he has a chance to clip Patterson early and it wouldn’t be the most shocking result if he did. But he’s at a 4” height and 8” reach disadvantage, and I think Patterson is just a far cleaner striker – coupled with the attritional components he brings, not leaving me a ton of optimism in more extended exchanges for Crosbie.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Patterson’s a BJJ brown belt with six of his 11 pro wins coming via submission.
He’s not really a proactive wrestler but has landed TDs in a handful fights primarily from the body lock with trips (what you would anticipate from a taller fighter).
The main credence to him isn’t so much his wrestling, it’s that he’s aggressive in attacking necks with a nice front head lock series – specifically the guillotine to where he can use his long limbs to really turn chokes over.
I’m not a huge proponent of guillotine guys but he’s not a “jumper” and more of a “long man choker” which is better.
He’s most recently coming off using a front headlock snap down to eventually transition to the back of Lainesse and finish off with an RNC.
Defensively, we’ve seen him struggle at points in his last two Brave fights against two Caucus Russians.
But he was able to either work up from the TDs or be able to reverse position – eventually caught Magomedov but it was a fight he was down in.
Overall, he’s one of those crafty/lanky grapplers that needs to be given respect or he will finish guys. I still think he needs work in the wrestling department both offensively and defensively though as more positionally aware opponents will give him some issues.
Similar to the striking, the floor’s been a bit all over the board for Crosbie.
He’s not a proactive wrestler but he’s found success getting on top late in a few of his extended Bellator fights which helped him secure victories. He also took down Karakhanyan and had his back but lost the position relatively quickly.
Apparently, he’s a BJJ brown belt but I haven’t seen much to suggest he’s really of that level.
After losing the position against Karakhanyan, he immediately got put in an arm triangle and was submitted.
He tried a judo throw against Jousset which found himself on the bottom to where he got his back taken and was submitted quickly in that instance as well – poor fight IQ trying to throw a base judo fighter that’s bigger than you.
Then we’ve seen some trading of cage push in other outings with caught kicks here and there, but not a ton of conventional wrestling for or against.
Overall, with what we have, Crosbie can realize ground success against low tier opponents but has not fared well against more capable ground fighters.
How it plays out: The ground’s kind of weird in the sense I don’t really rate the wrestling of either guy much and both aren’t particularly proactive pursuers at the same time. But Patterson’s evidently a better submission grappler so regardless of how the grappling sequences are actually initiated, I don’t trust Crosbie at all if something gets locked on him whereas I’ve seen Patterson actually fight his way out of compromising positions before.
I still have some issues with Patterson to where he’s not a fighter I fully trust but this should be a good spot for him if he can avoid a nuking overhand early. I still don’t really know why Kiefer Crosbie was even signed in the first place – he’s having competitive decisions with bottom of the barrel Bellator guys and then getting finished early by the more competent ones – coupled with the fact he’s 34 so it’s not like he’s this young burgeoning prospect either. Maybe the UFC is just using him as cannon fodder for prospects, I don’t know. Patterson really should win this fight though as he’s the more skilled guy.
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On DraftKings, this is an intriguing matchup for finishing potential.
The fight is lined -600 to end inside the distance, which is one of the best on the slate. It makes sense with the matchup analysis as well, as both men have clear defensive issues.
Patterson will be a very viable pay up option because of it at 9.3k, and I think the most likely outcome is that he wins ITD. To a degree, I’d like exposure to him in tournaments.
However, I am very, very low on Patterson’s talents and I’ve already bet against him once. It’s tough to say he’s “likely” to lose to Crosbie, but I feel pretty confident Patterson will get knocked out again soon. Ashmouz is like 5 feet tall and KOd him quickly.
I definitely think Crosbie could knock him out as well. So I’m not inclined to believe there’s a lot of safety here with Patterson.
Additionally, I don’t consider Patterson a great producer of offense. I don’t expect him to land takedowns at a high rate, nor significant strikes. And that’s why in his most recent first-round sub, he still only scored 98 DK points, which could be a bust at this price tag.
I am pretty worried that we get something similar here. Crosbie charging forward, Patterson jumping on a neck. It’s a good recipe to score well, but a bad recipe to score 115+.
Patterson still rates out very well with a -225 ITD line and it’s fine if you want to prioritize him. I can’t ignore the finishing equity and obviously there’s a chance that a first-round win leads to a high score. Just based on my read on his talent and the strength of this range in general, I’m leaning toward being underweight and think I’ll probably aim to prioritize a few other fighters in this top tier.
Crosbie at 6.9k is another cheap fighter I like and am willing to play in tournaments.
There isn’t any safety with him and he probably will lose early. But at least he can fight aggressively, and if he can get past the range of Patterson, he could have damage potential.
Crosbie is +325 to win ITD which is fine. He should be pretty low owned and he could carry significant leverage against Patterson as well. With so many fights on the slate, there’s no reason to load up here but I consider Crosbie a decent punt with early KO upside and I wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Patterson by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski
Fight Odds: Parkin -338, Brzeski +270
Odds to Finish: +145
DraftKings Salaries: Parkin 9.1k, Brzeski 7.1k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Mick Parkin’s a Contender Series alum from the 2022 season who’s kept his undefeated streak intact since coming into the promotion – he’s 3-0 in the UFC and 9-0 as a pro. Lukasz Brzeski’s a fellow Contender Series alum but had his win overturned to a No Contest after testing positive for a banned substance. He was still brought back in though to where he’s since gone 1-3 in the UFC – he’s 9-4-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Parkin’s a good-sized heavyweight standing 6’4 with a 79” reach.
He’ll fight relatively technically for a younger guy in throwing out a jab, and following with hooks or supplemental leg kicks. His striking has been used to close distance to set up his TDs, but we’ve also seen him fight in more exclusive range-based affairs.
He’s traditionally been a higher volume guy as well, landing 5.3 distance strikes per minute at 50%.
However, he’s not the fastest or most powerful heavyweight out there – he has five finish wins via strikes, but they’ve all come via positional TKO’s – he’s not really hurting guys on the feet.
I liked how he was getting his hands back up after throwing on the Contender Series, but he also got cracked with some big shots and I did see him get hurt in one of his regional fights.
He looked good against Pogues in his debut, but Pogues also didn’t really do anything and kind of just allowed Parkin to pick at him for 15 minutes. I can’t take anything away from Parkin, but I more so attribute that performance to Pogues looking terrible than Parkin looking great.
He followed that up with a pretty poor striking performance against Machado where he got outlanded 68 to 34 at distance.
But most recently, he was able to outland Usman 71 to 57 at distance en route to a striking based decision win.
He’s defending distance strikes at 62% thus far in the UFC which is pretty solid, albeit we’re dealing in a smaller sample.
Overall, Parkin’s a respectable striker, especially factoring in that he’s only 28 years old which is a baby by heavyweight standards. However, he probably has a KO loss waiting in the near future when he starts fighting more explosive/athletic heavyweights.
Brzeski is a lanky heavyweight that could probably make 205 to be honest.
In relation to the lower levels of the weight class, he’s shown some good things on the feet with a lead hook, straight and will dig the body. He’ll mix in kicks here and there but tends to be primarily boxing based.
I don’t think he’s the most powerful guy in the world but has finished 5/9 pro wins via strikes.
The weird thing with Brzeski is his cardio. He looks visibly tired in all his fights but is one of those guys that has pushed through it in many spots.
I think part of it is that the guy just throws so much volume – for context, he threw 243 strikes on DWCS and 280 in his debut.
So despite being tired, I feel the primary merit to him in his career is just having more in the tank than his opponents and doing more.
Defensively, I thought he looked much better against Buday than any of his other past fights as he was moving relatively well – Buday did start to find later success though.
Williams landed some bigger bombs on him in the limited time that fight was at space though, where he got hurt and was KO’d by Cortes-Acosta with a right hand.
I have seen him hurt in multiple fights regionally too outside of the one time he was officially KO’d — he doesn’t check kicks either.
He’s coming off outlanding Walker 58 to 33 in which he landed the better shots over the course of the fight, which is what earned him the nod with some controversy.
Overall, he kind of reminds me of Chase Sherman a bit. The fact that he’s a slimmer heavyweight will give him speed and output advantages over the sloppy lower-level tier, but his defense and durability issues have now reared their head in multiple fights.
How it plays out: Given the higher volume patterns of both, I’d anticipate striking exchanges to be relatively competitive. But the thing that pushes me to the Parkin side is that I feel he’s just the better technical striker of the two whereas Brzeski can be a bit more sporadic. At the same time, it’s pretty difficult for me to unsee Parkin getting out landed by Machado and dropping a round to Usman standing, so I can’t say I have a supreme degree of confidence in Parkin winning on the feet.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Parkin’s best work in a vacuum has come on the ground where he is a BJJ brown belt.
However, his entries to TDs are kind of slow and traditionally telegraphed – he’s just been able to get guys down with consistency on singles and doubles against the fence because most of his opponents haven’t had any real concepts of TDD.
In that, he’s largely been strong from top positions in working GNP from half guard to eventually set up his passes to mount where he’s finishing guys.
On the Contender Series, his opponent just flopped over and gave his back, resulting in Parkin scoring his 1st pro win via submission – he did get taken down twice though.
Parkin got reversed twice off TD entries against a pretty shitty guy regionally as well – he was able to scramble back into top position though. We then didn’t really learn any more about his TDD or bottom game against Pogues considering Pogues only shot one TD (stupid gameplan).
Most recently, he was able to best Machado on the ground going 3 for 10 on TDs, and racking up six minutes of control which is what won him that fight – however, he gassed out down the stretch and went 0/3 in the 3rd round. If you were to score that fight solely on damage, there’s a sufficient argument Parkin lost considering he had no submission attempts and landed two total ground strikes.
Overall, he’s done what he’s needed to do but he’s going to struggle securing TDs at the UFC level if he’s fighting someone with respectable TDD and some semblance of a responsible get up game. Nonetheless, he has a capable ground game whereas most heavyweights don’t, which will give him an added ceiling.
Brzeski’s hit some TDs here and there but is primarily looking to stand and strike.
He was able to outwrestle his short notice DWCS opponent though going 2/3 on TD, racking up nearly eight minutes of control time – eventually finishing with an RNC.
But the ground both offensively and defensively has been pretty sloppy in his fights.
He has a couple submissions and positional TKOs on his record, but his ground success is almost solely predicated on gassed out opponents where he’s just able to have a bit more in the tank.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much in the aggregate but did lose the 1st round on the floor against Kita – if Buday looked to pursue the wrestling more that fight would have been more decisive potentially.
We saw him get rag-dolled by Williams who went 8/13, racking up 10 minutes of control – Brzeski also ate some big GNP in that spot.
He most recently got taken down four times on five attempts against Walker, conceding seven minutes of control – he also got mounted and had his back taken in the fight. Walker just didn’t really do any damage, landing only eight ground strikes which left the door open for Brzeski.
Overall, he can out-wrestle/control guys with little acumen, but I don’t rate his technical prowess and he’s clearly a defensive wrestling liability at this point.
How it plays out: This is where there is a more evident advantage to Parkin. As noted, I don’t think the guy is Jordan Burroughs by any means, but Brzeski’s TDD is poor. Both Williams and Walker are probably better pure wrestlers than Parkin in fairness however, Parkin has better jiu-jitsu than both those guys. Brzeski has shown a poor tendency to give his back or the mount and Parkin’s a guy who’s more capable of capitalizing on those positions than the other guys.
I’m not as bullish on Parkin generally as a lot of other people because I don’t think he’s a very good athlete and that’s going to run him into issues when he starts fighting a better brand of competition. However, this seems like an okay spot for him to continue on his winning ways. As noted, the Walker decision for Brzeski was somewhat controversial to where if he lost that fight, he would have gotten cut. The UFC’s now turning him around four months later to take on another prospect that they like in the UK – the booking seems deliberate. Narrative aside though, if this is a 15-minute striking fight, it could be competitive. But I think Parkin’s going to finish him on the ground and pick up his first UFC stoppage.
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On DraftKings, I don’t necessarily expect this matchup to be a priority but there’s always some level of upside in the HW division.
Parkin is priced up to 9.1k and he’d be my preferred target. He’s been a very inconsistent wrestler, but he’s clearly capable of landing a few takedowns and this seems like a matchup where he should have advantages on the mat.
That alone gives Parkin some upside, but it’s probably not enough. He landed three takedowns against Machado and only scored 83 points, largely because the fight was competitive.
Parkin probably needs to turn that grappling into a finish to clear the optimal lineup, which is a bit tough to rely on as Brzeski has been easily outwrestled, but done a fine job to survive on the mat. However, he’s also been KOd, and although I don’t think Parkin is a stand out striker, he may have a bit of KO equity.
Parkin is +200 to win ITD which isn’t great for a HW favorite, and that combined with his weak box scores suggests he’s likely to be low owned on this slate. He’s just a bit too expensive honestly, and I think there’s a lot easier paths to a ceiling in the tier priced directly above him.
However, I don’t mind using Parkin as a secondary target though, especially if you cannot afford to pay up. He’s been bet up on the moneyline pretty significantly and he still has some grappling and finishing equity. He could be a sneaky target to a degree.
He’s somewhat boom or bust but grappling equity + a low level opponent in front of him at least gives him a path, and low public ownership is a bonus. I won’t prioritize him outright but I’d like to have some shares and would aim to be near the field at worst.
Brzeski at 7.1k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
All of these fighters are viable to some degree. You’re going to get low ownership, which is a benefit.
Brzeski is pretty mediocre though. He’s likely going to be at a mild grappling disadvantage, if not a moderate one. Parkin seems tough and has boxed for 15 minutes in the UFC already.
Although Brzeski could still outpoint him on the feet, I’m not super excited by that outcome. Brzeski just did it against Walker and scored 75 points. I think you’re really hoping for a KO which is a tougher outcome to predict.
I will say that Parkin was briefly hurt in his last fight, though he reacted fine and bounced back well. Anything is possible at HW though.
Brzeski is +550 to win ITD which is really poor and another signal not to be super excited by him. Realistically I like others in this range, as will the field, and I don’t think I’ll end up with much exposure to Brezski.
If you have a super large portfolio to work with, he’s a fine low-end mix in for contrarian purposes and some HW narrative upside, but nothing stands out within his game or within his metrics to be excited.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Parkin by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean
Fight Odds: Bannon -177, Ardelean +152
Odds to Finish: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Bannon 8.9k, Ardelean 7.3k
Weight Class: 115
In what should clearly be the worst fight of the night in terms of talent, the UFC seems desperate to get Shauna Bannon a win as she’ll take on the debuting Alice Ardelean.
Bannon is 5-1 professionally at age 30, and she trains out of the Paddy Holohan gym which also has ties to Conor McGregor.
Bannon made her UFC debut against Bruna Brasil last year and lost a clear decision, where she mostly chased Brasil around the Octagon. She was ultimately outlanded 56 to 54, and gave up a couple of takedowns as well.
Bannon is going to excel the most at kicking range, and her kicks are her best weapons. I have seen her fire off long straight hands, but her boxing is definitely a secondary skill set to her kicking.
This type of style really doesn’t work well at the highest levels. Unless you’re able to control distance super easily, these fighters fall apart defensively on the inside. And it’s pretty clear her offensive capabilities are limited as she could not cut off the cage or land many effective strikes in her debut.
Bannon just doesn’t strike me as a fighter who will have much success outside of kicking range, and I don’t see her beating good competition. She’s an OK athlete but not a great one.
She’ll look to clinch a lot when opponents get on the inside, but her clinch game isn’t very good. Her wrestling isn’t horrible but I don’t think she can easily take down UFC-level opponents.
I’ve seen her mix it up on the mat, and she’ll fish for triangles from top and bottom. Perhaps she’s well trained as a submission grappler but she doesn’t look very dangerous to me. I’d only bet on her to beat very weak competition on the mat, but she might have enough knowledge to survive when taken down.
It’s just a lack of physicality/athleticism/power combination with a weird fighting style. She rates out as a fine round winner at kicking distance, but nothing more.
In attempts to give her a win, the UFC will be calling up Alice Ardelean on two week’s notice, who is 9-5 professionally at age 32, and not a real prospect.
Ardelean has been fighting since 2012, which I guess is when she was 20 years old, and she’s actually competed against some decent UFC competition on the regional scene. Zhang Weili beat her to a pulp in 2016, and she has losses to Belbita and Stanciu as well.
More recently, Ardelean has been fighting on random regional scenes like in South Africa, and Romania where she is from. Her latest streak is five wins, dating back to 2017, plus a couple more exhibitions if you want to count them, but they’ve come against really poor competition.
She’s beating fighters with records of 0-3, 2-0, 0-1, 3-4 and 3-0, and some of them look the part.
I would say she rates out as an acceptable kickboxer, as she can throw with some urgency and throw in flurries. In those flurries, she can be effective.
But distance striking doesn’t seem incredible. I don’t see an amazing athlete here, and she’s been destroyed on the ground often. I see she’s now a blue belt in jiu-jitsu, so perhaps she’s improved from her Zhang Weili fight seven years ago, but it’s hard to project much ground success.
I really don’t think Ardelean is going to have a lot of success at the UFC level, but it is a bit difficult to tell how good she is based on being some random, inexperienced fighters in Romania.
She may actually be able to compete with Bannon, which says a lot about the matchup. Assuming the fight plays out on the feet, it could very well be competitive.
I suppose Bannon is superior at kicking distance, but she’s just not that good, so it’s tough to project a lot of domination upside. I’d say it’s possible that Ardelean is better in the pocket, but then Bannon may want to clinch too.
On the ground, neither fighter is good but I’ve seen worse optics from Ardelean. Bannon is a purple belt I believe, and probably the more experienced ground fighter. I guess it’s possible she could take Ardelan down and submit her, though I’d lean against it as she has no wins by sub in her pro or amateur career.
Mostly, I just think this fight will be ugly. It could be up-paced, but if so, it will be super messy. They’ll probably just strike for the majority of time and I guess I’ll lean Bannon for her kicking game and full camp, but I’m not particularly confident in that.
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On DraftKings, this is a horrible preliminary opener and I don’t really see a reason to roster this one heavily, outside of the fear factor.
The fear factor is real though – these girls are so low level that I can’t lie – I am worried about it being very messy and ending up on the ground.
Still, there’s just no chance I pay up for Bannon at 8.9k at any reasonable rate. She’s a thin favorite with a +300 ITD line on a massive slate.
Her path is exactly what I said above, an up-pace affair where it ends up on the ground and then we realize Ardelean hasn’t been training much and Bannon submits her. Play her as a sprinkle contrarian option for that reason if you wish, but I don’t know if I’ll be able to get to her with a more limited portfolio.
Ardelean actually has the better ITD line at +280 which is hilarious. She’s honestly in play for that reason. That’s not a bad finishing line.
But what is the expectation? I don’t know how she’ll look and I doubt she’ll wrestle much. It still isn’t super appealing with so many live dogs.
I won’t be prioritizing Ardelean personally and don’t think she’s a great play in any regard. Using her as a low-end secondary target due to win and finishing equity is fine though.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bannon by Decision (Confidence=Low)