Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Fight Odds: O’Malley -132, Dvalishvili +115
Odds to Finish: -120
DraftKings Salaries: O’Malley 8.5k, Dvalishvili 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
One of my favorite title fights in recent memory, I honestly cannot wait to see Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili square off inside the Octagon on Saturday night.
O’Malley, despite many critiques from the casual fanbase, is a super skilled fighter. He’s proven to be one of the best distance strikers in the division, and his ability to maintain range, spam volume, and avoid getting hit has really been a tough challenge for his opponents.
Through 13 tracked fights, O’Malley is landing 7.63 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.52 per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate.
He’s also topped out at 230 sig. strikes landed on two separate occasions, which includes one five-round fight and one three-round fight.
Furthermore, he’s often being pressured, and typically fighters who are moving backward get more tired. O’Malley’s ability to fight in volume while moving backward is really a showcase of his cardio as well, which is going to be important in this particular matchup.
With that said, nobody is perfect. O’Malley has been hurt in multiple fights, though not often to his head.
He still possesses a skinny frame and long legs that haven’t held up at times. He injured his leg both in a fight against Andre Soukhamthath in 2018, and again versus Marlon Vera in 2020. Both fights should have ended in a loss.
While I’m not worried about O’Malley’s durability, I wouldn’t label him as the most physical threat in the division.
There are also still some questions about O’Malley’s wrestling. He’s not a primary wrestler and I don’t think will ever be elite in that area, but for the most part, he’s held up OK.
He’s defending takedowns at 62 percent, and obviously kept Aljamain Sterling off of him prior to winning that fight by KO in round two. He did give up six takedowns to Petr Yan, but did alright in scrambling back up to his feet.
O’Malley is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and very competent on the mat too, so it’s not as if he’s doomed for failure in a grappling based matchup. But there is some worry that better opponents will be able to get in on his hips and take him down more often than what’s happened in the past.
Enter Merab Dvalishvili.
Merab is a true outlier in this sport, and I’d put him on the same tier as a fighter like Max Holloway in the sense that these guys don’t show up very often in a generation.
Holloway and Merab are very different fighters stylistically, and they aren’t outliers for the same reason. Where Merab shines is in his offensive pace and cardio. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a fighter like him before.
Merab is currently landing 4.50 sig. strikes per minute AND 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, and despite a couple of early losses, nobody has really been able to stop his pressure.
It makes sense though. Defending one takedown is easy enough. Defending five is doable. What happens when you have a bulldozer in front of you who is attempting 17 takedowns per 15 minutes…???
That’s right. Merab is actually only landing takedowns with a 36 percent accuracy which means he’s attempting more than one takedown PER MINUTE currently. That kind of pace is not normal, and it’s been essentially impossible for opponents to deal with.
Even at distance, Merab is still landing 5.01 sig. strikes per minute with a +1.65 differential. And he’s defending strikes at distance at 62 percent, which is very strong.
The combination of wrestling and striking pacing is elite, and because Merab is known for having a never-ending cardio tank, he’s just been a very difficult fighter to beat.
To beat him, you’ll either need to finish him, outpace him, or neutralize his wrestling completely to where you can outpoint him on the feet. Those are all options on the table for O’Malley, but I’m not convinced he can get the job done.
Pacing wise, O’Malley can certainly stay competitive with Merab and effectively outstrike him on the feet. If this was a pure kickboxing match, I would favor O’Malley pretty comfortably.
Again, it’s not just because Merab has technical issues, it’s because O’Malley fights at a high pace himself and throws fantastic volume while moving backward. He’s sharper and more technical, and has realistic knockout potential at distance.
Merab was badly, badly hurt early by Marlon Moraes in 2021 and I do think he can be hurt again. He somehow recovered and came back to win that fight by TKO in round two, but still.
I’m much less confident about O’Malley being able to neutralize his wrestling though. The best recent tape we have of O’Malley wrestling came against Petr Yan in 2022, where Yan took O’Malley down six times on 13 attempts.
O’Malley did scramble up well, but Yan got in on his hips pretty easily and was the more physical fighter there. Merab is a better wrestler and a tougher wrestler to deal with than Yan, partially showcased by Merab taking Yan down 11 times when they fought in 2023.
Potentially O’Malley could scramble up at times. Potentially he could try to lock up a guard sub or head-arm choke in a transition. Realistically, if Merab pursues a wrestle-heavy attack again here, he has clear 10+ takedown upside over 25 minutes.
That’s my main concern with backing O’Malley here. If he can’t stop Merab wrestling, I’m not sure he wins. He can still land more effectively at distance but I don’t know if he can keep Merab at distance. Merab still throws a ton of strikes and if Merab is working on the inside and in the pocket, striking exchanges will be competitive.
It honestly makes me lean toward Merab as a whole. When one side has 10+ takedown upside and the other does not, it’s just tough to overcome from a round winning standpoint.
O’Malley can still win the fight, but I think he’ll need to get work done early. Really neutralize the wrestling early. Be super effective at distance and potentially hurt Merab trying to come in. Maybe knock him out.
I give O’Malley a real chance to win because I respect his skills, but the longer the fight goes, the tougher time he will have wrestling defensively, and Merab may just take over with his pace completely.
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On DraftKings, I think this is a fantastic fight and I will likely be very heavy on it considering there are only 10 fights on this slate.
Let’s start with Merab though because he has the highest ceiling on the slate at 7.7k, and I honestly don’t think it’s a terrible strategy to load up on him or take an extreme overweight position.
From my view, he’s as close to a guarantee to be optimal in a win as you get in this sport. He’s only gone the five-round distance once, but he scored 167 points in that decision. In three-round wins, Merab has scored 164, 148, 136, 129, etc.
Now in another five-round fight, against an opponent who also fights at a high pace, and who profiles to be weakest as a wrestler, I think Merab has insane upside.
The most realistic type of win for Merab is a grinding decision in which he probably lands 4-12 takedowns, with upside for more. Many minutes of control. Lots of strikes in all positions.
Despite being only +615 to win ITD, Merab has an elite ceiling because of his offensive production, and is ultimately the best play on the slate because of it.
The issue is that he’s currently an underdog. And if he loses, he’s obviously much less likely to be optimal. I say “less likely” because there’s honestly still a chance he’s optimal on a short slate. He has lost twice in the UFC, in three-round fights, and he’s scored 99 and 73 DK points in those losses. It’s insane.
But knowing he’s theoretically less than 50% implied to win, and giving O’Malley some respect, of course you could choose to spread out your exposure here instead of forcing it in on Merab.
I just feel so comfortable in the offensive production of Merab, and I think he’s possibly being undervalued in this matchup as well. Especially as the dog, if public ownership is going to be taken away from him due to the hype on O’Malley, this feels like a decent spot for me to be semi-aggressive on the Merab side.
Realistically, he still projects to be the heaviest owned dog on the slate and based on his fantasy potential, he could be higher owned than O’Malley as well.
O’Malley is priced at 8.5k and will still rate out as a great play based on what it takes to beat Merab.
The issue is just that he likely won’t wrestle, and his ITD line is only +115. If O’Malley wins a competitive decision where he’s being wrestled for a couple of rounds, I’m not sure he can hit a massive volume ceiling either.
So there’s more risk in O’Malley winning, landing 140 sig. strikes, and scoring in the 90-100 range in total. Of course, he could also land 200 strikes, or earn a KD/TKO along the way and surpass 100 points too.
It’s probably safest to spread your exposure out between these two, and aim for an optimal score on one side or the other. If you feel more confident in O’Malley than I, leaning toward him is still totally acceptable.
It’s just a bit difficult for me to pass up on the elite ceiling of Merab, and the theoretical safety in his style.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dvalishvili by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Fight Odds: Grasso -138, Shevchenko +120
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Grasso 8.3k, Shevchenko 7.9k
Weight Class: 125
Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso will look to settle the score once and for all as the pair square off in the Octagon for the third time this weekend.
Grasso and Shevchenko first met in March of 2023, when Shevchenko was the champion and largely considered one of the best female Mixed Martial Artists of all-time. She was a massive favorite heading into that bout, and despite clearly winning the early rounds, Shevchenko stumbled, got her back taken, and tapped out to a RNC in the fourth round.
That stunning result prompted an immediate rematch where the two fought again in September 2023, ultimately resulting in a split-decision draw. Rounds were more competitive than the first fight though Shevchenko was ahead once again.
However, Grasso had some big moments as well, including an early knockdown and a late back take, which left the judges unable to determine a victor.
Now the pair have been filming the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, and both are desperate to prove that they are the rightful champion of this flyweight division.
My initial analysis both entering the first fight and the second fight was that Shevchenko was the superior fighter, and the superior round winner.
She’s an elite kickboxer, a highly developed wrestler, and she’s very experienced in extended competition. She is simply extremely difficult to have advantages against, and is well-rounded in every aspect of MMA.
I’ve also noted some problems with Shevchenko throughout her career, primarily being that she is a low-volume striker. This is an issue that I tend to harp on for any fighter, and any champion as offensive production is the main key to success in this sport. Shevchenko was always lackluster as a striker, though her elite defense kept her more than afloat.
Plus, her development of a top-tier wrestling game in this division boosted Shevchenko above the rest of the crowd, and it’s been a main key to her success over the years.
Regardless, the area where I thought Grasso could have success was with her boxing. Grasso is not as well-rounded as Shevchenko, but she’s a higher-volume boxer and she’s technically sound there.
While I still assumed the defense and wrestling of Shevchenko would lead her to a win, if the two fought purely at distance, I thought Grasso could be competitive.
That was valid to some degree, but it’s actually been the submission grappling of Grasso which has been the most troublesome for Shevchenko.
In the first fight, I was shocked that when Grasso took Shevchenko’s back, Shevchenko defended in an elementary way that led to an immediate tap. It left me confused because if Shevchenko could not properly defend a basic choke, perhaps we have been overrating her skills to a large degree.
Grasso took Shevchenko’s back again in the fifth round of the rematch, and although Shevchenko survived, I would say that is where Grasso has the biggest advantage currently.
The problem is that despite multiple big moments on the ground, and one big moment on the feet, Shevchenko has still clearly controlled the vast majority of minutes.
In 45 minutes of action, Shevchenko has landed 147 distance strikes, and Grasso has landed 101. Shevchenko has landed eight takedowns, and Grasso has landed one.
Even in those big moments, Grasso only got the back because of Shevchenko mistakes BOTH times. Shevchenko threw a lazy spinning kick in the first fight that allowed Shevchenko to just jump on her back. In the second fight, Shevchenko missed a trip takedown and once again Grasso jumped on her back.
So although I respect Grasso and think she can make rounds competitive, I’m definitely not at the point where I think she’s clearly deserving to be the favorite.
We have the numbers. Shevchenko has been a better striker and a better wrestler than Grasso through 45 minutes. But Grasso has been able to capitalize on moments that have either finished the fight, or threatened to finish the fight, and that is important as well.
The other side of the coin is that… time goes on. Grasso is only now 31 years old while Shevchenko is 36. The UFC wants Grasso to win on UFC Noche, as Shevchenko has cleared out the rest of the division. I trust that Grasso is continuing to develop while I’m less sure that Shevchenko will.
Plus, stylistically, Grasso is still a boxing threat, and a submission threat. Perhaps Shevchenko won’t wrestle as much here in fear of getting her back taken. Perhaps she’ll continue to be cautious at distance in general, allowing for more competitive rounds by default.
So I definitely think Grasso can win the fight. It seems like a very realistic possibility. However, I’m still going to lean toward Shevchenko.
The bottom line is that Shevchenko is the better wrestler. She defends at 71 percent overall and has defended 3/4 takedowns against Grasso, while Grasso defends at 59 percent and has only defended 5/13 takedowns against Shevchenko.
Shevchenko is still a very capable submission grappler and strong positionally, and as long as she can avoid Grasso randomly taking her back, she should be fine in grappling exchanges.
On the feet, yes Grasso can have success but Shevchenko is also still defending strikes at 62 percent and only absorbing 2.11 strikes per minute. It’s just tough to project Grasso to produce much offense.
Rounds can and likely will be competitive here, and I’d love to see more wrestling based improvements from grasso that lead her to a more dominant win. Based on the tape we have, Shevchenko is still in control and I give her a slight edge to take rounds and take a decision.
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On DraftKings, this will be another very important matchup as there are only 10 fights on the slate, and these girls get to work for up to 25 minutes.
Shevchenko is the easier call to make, priced at 7.9k, and I’m more comfortable with her putting up an optimal score in a win due to wrestling potential.
She scored 81 points in a fourth round loss to Grasso, and 91 points in a draw in the rematch. If she’d simply gotten her hand raised either time, she would have easily cleared the 110 mark.
Grasso is the tougher call at 8.3k, as her wrestling and volume projections will be worse. However, I noted this last time and it came to fruition – Grasso gets credited with a shit ton of non-significant strikes to a hilarious point.
Despite not wrestling much, or landing much volume, and being held down for several minutes, Grasso is just bopping her hands all the time. She was credited with 123 non-sig. strikes in four rounds in the first fight and another 178 in the second fight.
That’s an additional 25-35 fantasy points just from little punches that you don’t even see on tape. For what it’s worth, Shevchenko was credited with 80 and 119 non-sig. strikes in those two matchups as well, which is also a lot.
But the point is, that has a major impact on fantasy. It allowed Grasso to score 91 points in a win the first time (she was losing most rounds before the win) and another 94 points in the draw.
While the 91 point score isn’t phenomenal, there is hope that if she wins on Saturday, she would have a more dominant display than she had in that first matchup and therefore score more fantasy points.
But it also shows there’s a tad more risk on Grasso than Shevchenko. She is less likely to land more than 1-2 takedowns, and not likely to land more than 80ish sig. strikes. She will need those random 150 non-sig. strikes to reach a ceiling and without them, she might underperform her price.
Grasso is +240 to win ITD and Shevchenko is only +465 ITD, which I think is fair based on the threat Grasso showed on the mat. But neither side is extremely likely to win ITD and the fight is still -190 to go the full 25-minute distance.
Again, I think spreading out your exposure makes sense, though I will lean toward Shevchenko myself. She just rates out better for me offensively and for DK purposes with her wrestling, as well as price savings.
Grasso has a thinner window to the optimal but has a strong floor and moderate ceiling at 8.3k in a win. If you prefer her to win outright, which is fine, playing her moderately makes sense.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Shevchenko by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
Fight Odds: Lopes -185, Ortega +158
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Lopes 8.4k, Ortega 7.8k
Weight Class: 145
There was mayhem the last time Diego Lopes and Brian Ortega were scheduled to compete in the Octagon. Ortega was removed from the matchup due to illness on fight day, and Dan Ige stepped in for him on just a few hours notice.
Lopes went on to win that matchup clearly, though not decisively, and he and Ortega will attempt to battle once again on Saturday.
Lopes is now 4-1 in the UFC thus far, but he shined in his lone loss against Movsar Evloev in his UFC debut, who is one of the very best fighters in this bantamweight division, constantly threatening him with submissions in a three-round decision.
Since then, Lopes has largely decimated his opponents. He locked up a flying triangle choke to defeat Gavin Tucker, and he knocked out both Sodiq Yusuff and Pat Sabatini, with each fight ending in about a minute and a half.
Lopes is a very high-level submission grappler, with deep family ties to the sport, and that is certainly one of his biggest strengths. He’s shown creativity and danger from various positions, but he’s more than comfortable to be on his back.
Because of this skill set, Lopes is willing to fight ultra-aggressively on the feet. He does not care if you take him down because that will give him a chance to attack for submissions. Instead, he just throws bombs on the feet and he’s able to capitalize early.
Unfortunately for me, I haven’t been backing Lopes through this incredible run, and he’s hurt me much more often than not.
While I fully respect the submission game, I don’t love the process of giving up takedowns to play from your back, as it doesn’t typically work at the highest levels.
Even on the Contender Series prior to his UFC debut, Lopes was taken down a few times and beaten by Joanderson Brito. He then fought another tough regional scene opponent and lost. Then he stepped up to the UFC and lost.
Granted, he’s threatened all of his opponents in some regard but it’s not as Lopes is so unbelievably talented that he’s escaped losing at every turn. He’s got six losses on his record, including two TKOs.
Looking at his tracked stats, Lopes lands 3.24 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.08 per minute with a 37-percent striking defense. It’s a small sample, but those are pretty awful metrics and defending strikes at 39 percent doesn’t make me feel very confident.
As a grappler, Lopes landed the first takedown of his career against Ige to bring his average up to 0.33 landed per 15 minutes. He’s also defending at 46 percent. For an elite grappler, failing to land takedowns isn’t a great signal of process or future predictability, and it just makes it difficult for me to trust him.
Against Ige, we got a glimpse of what may happen again when Lopes fails to finish the fight quickly. He still threw some bombs early and landed 22 significant strikes, but he didn’t get close to finishing the fight.
In round two, Lopes jumped on top of Ige after Ige slipped on a kick, and then Lopes took his back. He held on for the rest of the round while threatening a choke.
In round three, Lopes shot in on a takedown but couldn’t do much with it. Ige scrambled and ended up on top of Lopes, pounding on him toward the end of the fight and winning that final round.
So moving forward, if he can literally knock everyone out in 90 seconds then Lopes will continue to be a monster. He’s still a threatening grappler as well. But my guess is we’re walking a very slippery slope here, and he’s quite likely to have a sharp fall off at some point.
Brian Ortega is an interesting opponent because for the most part, Ortega profiles very similarly to Lopes.
Ortega is an elite submission grappler, who’s historically been a poor wrestler, and has had additional boxing success because he’s not worried about opponents taking him down. He’s also a fighter I’ve largely faded, for similar reasons as Lopes.
Currently, in a much larger sample, Ortega is landing 4.07 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.54 per minute with a 49 percent defensive rate. He lands 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 57 percent.
Getting hit 290 times by Max Holloway in four rounds will certainly skew your statistics though, as will getting hit 214 times by Volkanovski in five rounds. But at least he’s faced the truly elite competition of his division, and performed admirably.
He’s also had injuries which have kept him away from the sport for a while. Ortega had his shoulder pop out in his first fight with Yair Rodriguez in 2022, and we didn’t see him again until the rematch in February.
Many had already written Ortega off by that point. And in the opening moments, Rodriguez rocked him badly and nearly swarmed for the finish. Fortunately, Ortega survived, leaned on his grappling and eventually submitted Yair in the third round.
I have mixed feelings about Ortega at this stage of his career because he’s fought so many quality opponents, and he’s skilled in all areas. But he does get hit a lot, and his wrestling is somewhat inconsistent, so he’s difficult for me to trust as well.
One thing I really like about his game recently is that he’s leaned into his takedowns more. In his last five fights, Ortega has landed 11 takedowns, which is pretty decent.
For comparison’s sake, in his first seven fights, Ortega literally landed ONE total takedown. The difference, as an elite submission grappler, between wrestling and not wrestling is hugely impactful, and I like that improving aspect for Ortega.
This matchup is a bit difficult to pick, all things considered.
There’s some merit to leaning toward Lopes, who can maybe just bomb away on Ortega early and hurt him. As mentioned, Ortega got hurt immediately by Rodriguez in his last fight, though he’s been very durable throughout his UFC career. He wasn’t knocked down once by Volkanovski or Holloway, despite eating 500 punches.
However, if Lopes can’t knock Ortega out early, I don’t see him winning this fight comfortably or winning at all.
Lopes hasn’t shown a willingness or capability to wrestle, and even if he does wrestle, is he going to get on top of Ortega and submit him? Seems unlikely given Ortega is just as good of a submission grappler, though maybe he’s not as dangerous.
Conversely, I think there’s a pretty decent chance Ortega gets on top of Lopes. His recent willingness to wrestle would be impactful for him in this matchup, as Lopes has lost many rounds playing off his back including his most recent round against a worse opponent in Ige.
Sure, Lopes might be able to threaten Ortega from the bottom, but I wouldn’t bet on him locking up a submission. A submission grappler at the level of Ortega should be very comfortable with basic guard attacks.
And of the two, it really feels like Ortega has more wrestling and control upside. Though, even if he’s on top, he may not be able to mount much offense either.
There’s a good chance we get a lot of striking exchanges as well if the grappling is neutralized on both sides, in which case, I’d argue it’s about even.
Lopes seems to be more explosive, with more power. He is probably more likely to have success early. Ortega has fought much better competition and is probably a bit better defensively. Durability of the two could be comparable, though perhaps you could favor Lopes who has taken less damage over the years?
I don’t have a strong opinion, but I suppose I will lean toward Ortega as he has more paths to victory. He’s the best submission grappler Lopes has ever fought, and that should help limit Lopes’ best attributes. There may still be some hectic exchanges early but we’ve consistently seen Lopes end up on his back in fights that play out past a couple of minutes, which is a red flag that’s hard for me to overlook.
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On DraftKings, both sides are in play though and I expect Lopes will be the more sought after fighter of the two.
He’s priced at 8.7k, with recent wins of 122, 105 and 90. He was also very chalky against Ige but busted with a score of 70, as he couldn’t finish the fight quickly. It’s not a great matchup for him on paper, but my guess is that he’ll try to knock Ortega out early, and that at least gives him another path to a ceiling.
Lopes is +150 to win ITD in this matchup which is decent. It was +115 the last time these two were scheduled to fight though.
It still feels strong considering Ortega’s only two professional losses ITD came to Max Holloway, which the ref had to step in at the end of round four, and Yair Rodriguez, where his shoulder popped out in the first round. He’s never been truly “finished” in his professional career.
It feels like a matchup with enough variance that I’m hesitant to take a heavy stand, but I’m not excited about targeting Lopes heavily. Not only is he likely to see decent public ownership due to his recent performances and hype, but he’s probably super boom or bust.
Over an extended fight, we’re not likely to see much wrestling. We’re not likely to see impactful volume. Even if he does wrestle, his path to a submission is probably extremely thin.
I think Lopes likely needs a quick KO to be optimal. We already saw when he jumped on a quick sub, he only scored 90 points, which may not be optimal at this price. For him to produce points, he probably needs the KO.
That outcome is possible as he’ll fight aggressively and Ortega was just hurt, but it doesn’t feel likely enough for me to be excited about investing here at potential chalk. I still think there’s merit to playing Lopes for the early KO upside and mixing him in through your constructions as a whole. He’s honestly hard to get away from on a short slate, but I will aim to be underweight to him in this range.
Ortega at 7.5k is viable. I think he has some wrestling equity, which could lead to a decent amount of control and some ground strikes as well. It may not look pretty but it’s a path to victory.
He also has some KO equity. I don’t think Lopes is super durable or anything and he doesn’t defend strikes very well. High-variance exchanges are possible and Ortega could be the one to hurt Lopes. He’s +350 to win ITD which isn’t great.
The hesitation is that it’s not the easiest matchup on paper for Ortega either. Even landing takedowns may put him in danger. I don’t want to rely on a KO. There are also multiple other elite dogs on this slate, if you include both championship matchups.
So I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to be cautious with this fight, hoping that the two fighters neutralize each other on the mat and the fight extends.
I don’t mind Ortega as a secondary target though. Just as there’s a possibility of an extended fight, there’s also the possibility that this is an outright war. Oretga has some wrestling equity, some KO equity, and he’ll probably provide leverage against a more popular Lopes. I will mix him around the field or a bit over.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ortega by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
Fight Odds: Zellhuber -233, Ribovics +195
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Zellhuber 9k, Ribovics 7.2k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Daniel Zellhuber’s a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season where he earned a contract. After dropping his debut in a pretty lackluster performance, he’s rebounded well ,having gone on to win his last three fights – he’s 15-1 as a pro. Esteban Ribovics is a fellow Contender Series alum who’s had a similar path so far in the UFC as his counterpart here in Zellhuber. He dropped his debut but has gone on to win his following two bouts – he’s 13-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Zellhuber’s a longer 155er, standing 6’1” with a 77” reach.
In that, he can fight at range well in utilizing long straight shots, good kicks targeting all three levels and a respectable clinch game – although he is a guy who does prioritize his boxing.
He’s finished seven of his 15 pro wins via strikes, proving dangerous in all his limbs.
Defensively, I don’t think he’s fully realized his frame just yet – I’ve seen him look pretty good from a distance management perspective in certain spots but struggle a bit in others.
In his DWCS fight, Almeida was able to have a lot of early success against him while going forward. He landed 50 distance strikes in the 1st round. But Zellhuber was able to make some adjustments, go forward in his own right and really take over the fight.
He then laid an egg in his debut, getting out struck at range by Trey Ogden which wasn’t a great look, but I do largely attribute that to debut jitters – he just didn’t perform at an optimal level.
He hurt Vannata badly in the 1st round, nearly finishing him off but couldn’t get him out of there The overall distance exchanges in the fight were pretty competitive with Zellhuber edging. Giagos also had a good 1st round on Zellhuber and did hurt him at one point, but Zellhuber started to get his timing as the fight progressed.
Most recently, he also had a slowish start against Prado, dropping the 1st on two judges’ scorecards but went on to win the latter rounds.
So, it hasn’t been all roses for Zellhuber but it’s good to see that he can weather adversity in his fights and come out the other side. The kid has also shown he can take one hell of a shot as well.
Overall, I rate him well as a striker and I’m expecting incremental improvements from him fight to fight at only 25 years old, but he needs to be more consistent round to round.
There isn’t much to say with Ribovics as he’s primarily been an early finisher.
He comes out heavy, throws big hooks and has KO’d his opponent in seven of his 13 pro wins.
So he is a bigger hitter, his hands are quick and does appear to be an okay athlete.
We haven’t seen him face much striking based resistance overall, but he did get stung with some clean shots early in his DWCS fight – Loik was also able to crack him good a few times.
However, he actually got the better of the standup exchanges against Loik and did hurt him on multiple occasions. There is an argument for Ribovics winning that fight based on damage.
He then rallied after a rocky 1st round to outland Kirk 92 to 51 at distance, taking the latter two rounds. Most recently, he put McKinney down clean with a nice head kick combo.
Overall, he’s not the most technically proficient guy in the world but he is relatively tough and brings a level of pressure and power that may be difficult for opponents to deal with over duration as well.
How it plays out: Zellhuber will realize a 3” height and 8” reach advantage here. I’d also say that Zellhuber is the most complete/technical offensive striker that Ribovics has fought to date. However, despite being undersized, Ribovics’ scrappy/higher volume style does make him intriguing here to potentially be competitive and/or hurt Zellhuber. But I’d still side with the length and technicality of Zellhuber, who can also fight at higher work rates as well.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Zellhuber’s a BJJ black belt, but we haven’t seen a ton of traditional TDs from him. It’s often guys shooting on him to where he’s shown good hips to reverse their TDAs and end up in dominant positions.
He’s largely shown good positional control, good GNP and the ability to take backs in the times he’s able to get into top positions. He hit a really nice calf slicer transition against Arizmendi back on the regionals as well. He more recently locked up an anaconda on Giagos off a shot from too far out.
Defensively, he has been stuck on bottom a bit earlier on in his career, but has always either worked up or swept at the same time.
In general, he’s shown a really good sprawl and has stuffed 17 of 18 attempts his way so far within the UFC – also against guys that come from wrestling and jiu-jitsu backgrounds in Ogden, Vannata and Giagos.
Overall, it does appear there have been some sound evolutions in his overall wrestling/grappling in recent years, but he’s still not a fighter you can expect consistent floor production from.
I’m unsure of Ribovics floor background but he hasn’t shown to be much of a wrestler.
He strikes me as more of a scrambler, and has some parallels to the grappling of Luis Pena (if you remember him).
His grappling success is usually coming from opponents taking him down where he’ll use kimura traps to either sweep or find finishes. Three of his five sub wins have come via kimuras.
I’m generally not a fan of someone having to rely on that as their primary line of TDD though he has largely made it work for him, but it has come against a lower caliber of competition.
Loik actually set a TD record against him to highlight his lacking TDD, but he was able to work up and sweep on a few occasions – he still ultimately got controlled for nearly eight minutes of the fight – Loik is a good wrestler though who’s also physically strong.
But he did stuff 11/14 shots from Kirk a few fights back, which showed some potential improvements there, although Kirk isn’t the wrestler that Loik is. Ribovics still lost the 1st round unanimously via wrestling, getting controlled for essentially the entire round but Kirk slowed down as the fight progressed. He landed a couple TDs of his own but wasn’t able to do much from top position.
I still don’t like Ribovics tendency to give his back up, despite never being submitted before.
Overall, Ribovics is a guy who can expose weaker grapplers, but he’ll run into some more troubles against better wrestlers.
How it plays out: Given size parity and historics, I’d project Ribovics to be the more proactive shooter of TDs. But as I alluded to, I don’t rate his offensive wrestling much and I like the TDD mechanics that Zellhuber has shown off. Despite Ribovics having more submission wins, I’d actually give more submission upside to Zellhuber. But in totality, I think we’re largely in for a striking fight.
Fun fight that should be fought at a higher pace. I still have some issues with Zellhuber in current form but he’s also a guy at 25 years old who I think has a pretty decent ceiling within the UFC. I just feel he’s the more refined fighter in this spot that should get his hand raised more often than not. But barring no early finish either way, I’d anticipate Ribovics to give him an honest fight over duration.
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On DraftKings, I actually expect the underdog Ribovics to gain more attention.
Zellhuber is priced up to 9k, and while he’s a moderate favorite, he hasn’t produced from a fantasy standpoint. His recent wins have scored 78, 85 and 76, and there’s even been a knockdown and a submission win mixed into that span.
Without a high-paced wrestling game, Zellhuber is going to have trouble exceeding value at this price tag, unless he scores an early KO. He’s only +200 to win ITD, which isn’t phenomenal, and there are other intriguing options in this price range.
With that said, I expect Zellhuber to be semi-contrarian this week. There are only 10 fights on the slate so every fighter will be owned, but Zellhuber (and potentially Jauregui) will be among the lower owned options, as I expect the public to want to force in Rosas.
I don’t hate Zellhuber, especially from a contrarian standpoint. The fight will be high paced and Ribovics isn’t the best defensive fighter in the world. It’s just tough to make a heavy investment here as I sort of expect an extended and semi-competitive contest.
Ribovics on the other hand is priced at 7.2k, and I think he’s going to be quite popular for salary relief.
He’s coming off a 127 point win, and he scored 92 in the win prior. The fight is also -170 to go the distance which means Ribovics may carry an adequate floor even in a loss.
He also has a real path to victory. He’s a competent kickboxer and although he’s not likely to win more than 50 percent of the time, his forward pressure, volume and combination striking is enough to pose a threat to Zellhuber. Ribovics could pull off the upset.
I still want to prioritize other underdogs, especially the ones in championship bouts. But there just aren’t a ton of options and better projected dogs cost more.
With Ribovics priced down to 7.2k, he’s very viable for salary relief. I’ll pay up to 7.5k and above when I can but I prefer Ribovics over the other three cheap fighters in this bottom tier.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zellhuber by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -149, Osbourne +129
Odds to Finish: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.6k, Osbourne 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Ronaldo Rodriguez got a crack on the Contender Series back in 2020 but dropped his fight to Jerome Rivera. He then went back to the Mexican regionals, rattling off five straight wins before getting the call up to the UFC earlier this year – he’s 1-0 in the promotion and 16-2 as a pro. Ode Osbourne’s a fellow Contender Series alum who earned a contract back in 2019 but has been a hit or miss fighter over the last six years – he’s 4-5 in the UFC and 12-7 as a pro.
The striking component:
Rodriguez comes from a boxing background and is a stockier guy, standing 5’6” with a 65” reach. He can be technical at times, mixing in leg kicks and body work but often relies on his hooks and overhands.
It’s really his left hand that is his best shot where he does possess power, with seven of his 17 wins coming via KO/TKO, and he’s hurt other opponents in fights he hasn’t been able to finish.
The issue is that his pacing is on the lower end, so when he hasn’t been able to get guys out of there, he’s found himself in some tighter fights – credence to him being 3-2 in decisions in his pro career, two of which went to split.
Defensively, he’s primarily struggled with straight shots and kicks from longer opponents, and he will fight with his hands down at times – he also leaves himself open when coming in.
To his credit, he’s shown that traditional Mexican toughness and has never been KO’d in his pro career.
Overall, I don’t hate Rodriguez on the feet but it’s a quasi boom or bust type of style where I feel he’s going to run into some issues at the UFC level against more mobile, higher volume strikers.
Osbourne is a respectable striker as he’s a long, athletic guy for the weight class that possesses some fast hands and can be explosive. He likes to kick, fire straight shots and will flurry on opponents that he feels are hurt. In that, he has shown power components with two of his four UFC wins coming via KO/TKO.
In terms of his fights, Kelleher did outland him in the brief time that fight was at space in his debut. He blasted Jerome Rivera who was terrible and cut pretty quickly.
We got some more data on him at space in his fight with Kape though, where I largely thought he had a decent first round before he got blasted with a flying knee.
He was able to be the more effective striker against Vergara but the margins he won that fight by weren’t large – Osbourne also slowed significantly in the 3rd round and Vergara landed on him at an over 50% distance clip.
He blasted Adashev in a minute. The Nam fight was at a tepid pace, Osbourne tried a halfhearted flying knee and proceeded to get ice’d with a big right hook from Nam. The Johnson fight was competitive at distance where the argument is there that Johnson was the more effective striker in totality – Johnson did come in on super short notice too which I think played a good factor in the outcome of that fight.
Most recently, not much happened against Almabayev or Filho.
Defensively, he will keep his head right on the center line when he’s flurrying and largely just relies on his athleticism.
I also don’t like how he will fight with his hands down and tends not to get them back up after he throws his combos.
The pressure of Vergara and Johnson also gave him some issues and he’s been KO’d in two of his five UFC losses – granted by two guys who hit hard at 125.
Overall, Osbourne is a respectable offensive striker but he’s still only defending distance strikes at 49% and I do question his durability.
How it plays out: Osbourne will realize a 1” height and 8” reach advantage. But as noted, he’s not a guy to use his length with consistency from exchange to exchange. Conversely, Rodriguez doesn’t have very good defense either and Osbourne will be one of the more competent strikers that Rodriguez has fought. The problem and why I ultimately lean to Rodriguez is more based on a few intangibles. I think he hits harder. has better hardware and better cardio than Osbourne. At the same time, Rodriguez getting out landed by Bondar in the last fight at distance isn’t the best of looks. I’d anticipate early success from Osbourne and his length and athleticism could also be enough to win on the feet overall. Despite leaning Rodriguez, favoring Osbourne standing is logical as well, especially with the Vergara fight as a potential benchmark.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Rodriguez is a recently crowned BJJ brown belt and we’ve seen some ground time in his fights despite his striking base.
He’s not a guy that you can bank on to come out and shoot a high volume of TDs, but he has mixed them in to where he’s found some success with entry double legs.
He can rack up some minutes on top, but I also wouldn’t say he’s a control machine either – he’s traditionally getting on top from hurting opponents or scoring reversals.
Five of his pro wins have come via submission but three of them came earlier on in his run. The most recent ones he got were a jumped guillotine, and a RNC from finding the back of Bondar after Bondar lost position.
His TDD has been a bit shaky at times and he does have a poor tendency to give his back. We saw Rivera take it off a slip and control him a little bit, and I’ve seen it in one of his other fights as well.
To his credit, he’s fought hands well and has been either able to work out or reverse the positions.
He conceded four TDs to Bondar in the most recent outing but gave up a little less than three minutes of control. He’s additionally never been submitted in his pro career – still a concern to see that tendency though now fighting at the UFC level.
Overall, Rodriguez appears to be capable on the ground for a base boxer, but I would like a larger sample.
Osbourne comes from a wrestling background, but we haven’t seen him realize much offensive wrestling success in his MMA career.
Against Vergara, he went 1/7 on TDs and wasn’t able to establish control.
He went 3/10 on Johnson with a little less than three minutes of control to which he also wasn’t able to do much with it. But it was a close fight and those handful of latter TDs did help Osbourne get the nod on the cards.
Despite his background, he’s usually the one that’s actually being taken down.
Osbourne reps a BJJ purple belt which has aided him in securing triangles or armbars from bottom in a handful of scenarios back regionally.
In those instances, all three of those opponents did that to themselves, meaning they defended very poorly or put themselves deeper into the submissions which allowed Ode to secure. I can’t take anything away from Ode in that regard, but those regional guys had little grappling chops.
Another scenario was when Kelleher took him down – Kelleher passed his guard and guillotined him from cage mount in less than three minutes.
We also saw Vergara get on top of Osbourne later in the fight in which he just played guard and lost the round. Almabayev went 2/5 on TDs where he locked up a deeper Peruvian Necktie towards the end of the 1st and got to Osbourne’s back in the 2nd, finding a RNC shortly after. He most recently got run over on the ground by Filho.
In the defense of Osbourne, he’s fought a handful of quality ground fighters in there, but his TDD sits at a measly 61% and he’s being out controlled at a 4:1 ratio thus far in the UFC.
Overall, Osbourne can best more incompetent wrestler/grapplers, but I don’t rate his overall floor game as it translates to a UFC level in fighting higher caliber opponents.
How it plays out: The ground’s kind of a mess here as I don’t rate the wrestling of either guy all that much and both can give up bad positions. Both also aren’t super reliable TD pursuers in a vacuum. I would still lean Rodriguez on the floor though as the more credentialled grappler on paper, who’s probably better in the scrambles and is less likely to get submitted of the two.
On what’s a pretty fun UFC 306 PPV card, this is one of the fights that’s toward the bottom of my list in terms of fan intrigue. I’m leaning Rodriguez in both realms, so he’ll be my pick to win but there are still many negative attributes about his game and his overall strength of schedule has been low. Osbourne’s just so inconsistent and never puts together 15 minutes, so despite his strength of schedule being much tougher than Rodriguez’s, he’s a tricky guy to analyze where you don’t really know what you’re getting on fight to fight basis. It’s a variable fight.
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On DraftKings, this will be a boom or bust matchup on both sides, and I have mild interest based on their salaries.
Osbourne is honestly who I want to talk about more. He’s priced at 7.6k and I think there’s a decent chance he gets squeezed.
Right above him are the two champions who will attract a ton of attention. Ortega is below him, and there are viable cheap options like Ribovics as well. Osbourne doesn’t save a tremendous amount of salary at 7.6k and he definitely won’t be a public priority.
His box score is also very weak. He’s scored 0, 3, 70 and 6 in his last four fights and the public is rostering fighters based on box score more and more every week. So despite Osbourne having legitimate win equity, I don’t really think he’s going to get played.
That intrigues me from a contrarian standpoint because ultimately, Osbourne is a boom or bust guy. Besides that 70 point win, his other two UFC wins have scored 103, 69 and 127. The big performances both came with early KOs.
Now he’s fighting an opponent who is low volume, with questionable defensive grappling. I definitely do not trust Osbourne but it’s worth noting that Jerome Rivera, the guy who beat Rodrigeuz on DWCS, was KOd by Osbourne in the UFC in just 26 seconds.
All things considered, Osbourne is worth considering as a boom or bust fantasy option when you’re looking to be unique. I’m not going to pick him to win, nor do I think he’s very talented or trustworthy, but I’m expecting lower ownership and he has decent win and ITD odds at +129 and +215.
Rodriguez at 8.6k is someone I’d like to pass on based on style, but this is still a decent fantasy matchup.
My biggest problem with Rodriguez is that he’s slow paced. Look no further than his last fight where he landed 31 strikes in 10 minutes. On his DWCS fight, he landed 19 strikes in 15 minutes.
He’s a decent boxer and submission grappler, but he will bust in an extended fight due to lack of volume production.
I’m honestly not sold on his talents either so betting on him here at 8.6k, when he has to get an early finish, is pretty risky.
With that said, Osbourne has lost five times in the UFC and four of those losses came in round one, with the fifth coming in round two. Three were by submission and two were by knockout. The guy is mostly a kill or be killed type and that’s resulted in many quick finishes either way.
So although I don’t love Rodriguez, if he wins, there’s a decent chance it comes ITD early. He’s +155 to win ITD in this matchup and is coming off a 106-point score which I expect to boost his public ownership.
I’m really not in love with the ceiling, and I definitely want to prioritize the championship fighters, but with only 10 fights on the slate, there aren’t many pivot points. So I expect to end up with a handful of Rodriguez by default to make constructions work. The best pivot here may be directly to Osbourne for leverage.
Regardless, it’s still fine to lean toward Rodriguez on DK for upside purposes, and the fight overall is -170 to win ITD. Both sides carry risk in an extended fight but they’re worth mixing in for upside and price.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
Fight Odds: Dumont -108, Aldana -106
Odds to Finish: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Aldana 8.4k, Dumont 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a blue-collar matchup here in the women’s bantamweight division between Norma Dumont and former title challenger Irene Aldana.
Dumont is a decent fighter and has won seven of her last eight fights. She is best as a technical striker. She lands 3.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.89 in return. She defends strikes at a fantastic 66 percent.
She has pretty good striking metrics. She comes from a striking background and you see it in her game. She has decent hands and leg kicks. She can also control range pretty well. She can outstrike girls at this weight class. She just has a knack for neutralizing her opponent’s striking offense. She limited Karol Rosa to landing only 33 significant strikes in three rounds.
Dumont can also land some takedowns here and there vs weak grapplers. She lands 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed six takedowns in her most recent matchup against GDR.
The main issue with Dumont is that she doesn’t always dominate rounds as she doesn’t put up a ton of aggregate offense. She also can be clinched against the cage and neutralized which is why she lost vs Macy Chiasson. She defends takedowns at 72 percent, and I consider her defensive wrestling competent. However, she doesn’t have the best get-up game when she is actually grounded and good grapplers can take advantage of her.
Dumont will be taking on the always entertaining Irene Aldana. Aldana is not interested in wrestling and is mostly interested in striking and more specifically boxing. I consider her an adequate and decent boxer, but she is hittable though.
She lands 5.24 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.33 in return. I do think her numbers are skewed though as Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes dominated her. Still, I do worry about the defense of Aldana because it just makes it difficult for her to easily pull away in striking fights.
I did think Aldana looked quite dangerous in her recent fight of the night win against Karol Rosa. She was actually outlanded by Rosa 204-145 in significant strikes in an absolute war. However, Aldana showed good cardio and landed some crazy power shots in the last couple of rounds. I love Aldana’s offense in general but I just hate her defense.
Aldana does have decent takedown defense though. She defends takedowns at 76 percent. So she can at least generally keep fights on the feet where she is capable of winning. Holly Holm did land five takedowns on her though. They were generally all body lock takedowns which Aldana didn’t seem to have an answer for.
However, Holly is extremely physically strong in those upper body positions so I don’t fault Aldana too much for her defensive grappling in that fight. Nunes also had success with takedowns but Nunes is a very good takedown artist so it is tough to fault Aldana too much for that fight either.
As far as this matchup goes, I think a competitive line makes sense. I think Dumont is clearly a better defensive striker. So she can probably limit the offense of Aldana to a degree. I also think Dumont will definitely land here because Aldana is so hittable. So honestly Dumont may just win the striking exchanges.
However, I do think Aldana just has a higher offensive ceiling on the feet. Dumont just never pulls away so Dumont may evade Aldana and not pull away and land enough. So Aldana may just win the striking exchanges by being more aggressive. I really just think the striking will be competitive.
I do think Dumont has a little grappling upside here though. Aldana will likely not even attempt a takedown and Dumont has been incorporating grappling into her game lately. Aldana doesn’t have a great get-up game either. So if Dumont mixed in a few takedowns here, it may honestly be enough to win the fight.
I think this is a close fight, but I will pick Dumont because I think she is better defensively with more paths to victory.
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On DraftKings, this is probably the fight that will carry the least total ownership, though I can see both sides being forced in with mid-range prices.
It’s just that the fight is +300 to end inside the distance, and these women are priced between all four championship options, and Torres/Bahamondes. So the fight should be an afterthought.
Dumont is my preferred play of the two though I don’t love her at 7.8k.
She is technically a favorite, though it’s an essential pick’em on most books. She is the value side though from a DK perspective. That, with some grappling equity at least give her hope on a slate where few dogs might win.
The biggest issue is her ceiling. She’s +600 to win ITD and I see essentially no chance she beats out either Shevchenko or Dvalishvili in a win.
Dumont has scored 90, 90, 63 and 92 in her last four wins though which is good. Aldana fights at a high pace so there’s at least a floor here.
If Merab and Valentina both lose then Dumont could find her way onto the optimal with a medium-scoring win. Or potentially, I could see a scenario where you need a final fighter in the low 8k range, and choose to instead leave a bunch of salary on the table and drop to Dumont.
That’s when I’ll use her most, and otherwise, she’s a classic secondary target with some win equity, but one who is not likely to beat out many other dogs in wins.
Aldana at 8.4k will probably be contrarian. She has a better ITD line of +440 but her box scores are worse, with recent scores of 88, 70 and 24. She does box at a high volume but without a finish and no wrestling equity, her chances of reaching a ceiling are minimal.
Dumont was KOd in round one in her UFC debut by Megan Anderson, but that fight was at 145 and Anderson is huge. If you’re looking for an Aldana narrative though, at least she hits hard and there’s variance in striking exchanges.
Aldana still would best work in a situation where you cannot pivot elsewhere because you’ve already used one fighter in every other mid-range matchup. Outside of the contrarian angle or forced mid-range constructions, I won’t be investing in Aldana on this slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dumont by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Fight Odds: Torres -121, Bahamondes +106
Odds to Finish: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Torres 8.2k, Bahamondes 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I still have no idea what to think of Manuel Torres as a fighter. Torres made his UFC debut against Frank Camacho in 2022. He aggressively bullied Camacho on the feet and landed a knockout in round one with 34 significant strikes. The performance did not show me much, but it at least showed me that Torres is aggressive and can hurt people, especially early.
Torres then fought Nikolas Motta. He actually got tagged easily by Motta a couple of times and was bleeding in the nose and mouth area. It was kind of a bad look for Torres. Then Torres landed one of the nastiest elbow knockouts of 2023. The fight only took place for two minutes.
Then Torres fought Chris Duncan. He got hurt on literally the first exchange. The two then clinched up sloppily and traded some knees and sloppy takedown attempts. Torres then attempted a pretty sloppy takedown, got the back, and submitted Chris Duncan. It was a very odd exchange and I honestly wasn’t all that impressed.
I still can’t read into quick performances like that. All it tells me is Torres is a pretty dangerous guy but my guess is that he has holes in his game, especially in extended fights.
It is tough because before that Camacho fight, there was basically no footage on Torres. And when I say no footage, I mean there was literally less than 10 minutes of this guy that I found. Even if I found more, I don’t know how helpful it would be because all of his fights end so quickly against awful competition.
Torres had a Contender Series fight where not much happened either. He was moderately outstriking his opponent before eye poking his opponent and then finishing him in two minutes. Herb Dean of course dropped the ball and didn’t see the eye poke so it was a very weird sequence and fight. I can’t really infer much from that fight, good or bad.
All I really know about Torres is that he is a Mexican fighter who fights out of the same camp as Brandon Moreno. Torres is 15-2 with 14 first round finishes, fighting absolutely awful competition. Most of his wins have actually come by submission.
He was even submitted by kneebar in round one in one of the fights that I have found. These are really tough fighters to trust. His cardio is unknown, and even his skillset is unknown. Generally, these fighters tend to be bad more often than good. However, there are some outliers so it is tough to know.
I honestly don’t even know what this guy’s primary skill set or game plan is. I am going to guess he will look to strike or just be aggressive early like he was against Camacho and Motta. Whatever happens after that is tough to know. I don’t know anything about his defensive grappling or cardio really at this point.
Torres will be taking on UFC veteran Ignacio Bahamondes. Ignacio is very much a striker. He has never landed a takedown in the UFC and seems to have no interest in grappling. He just wants to strike. He landed a viral knockout in his matchup against Roosevelt Roberts a few years back. It was a cool one.
Ignacio is long for the division. He is 6’3” and has a 75” reach. He has a lot of offense and diversity in his strikes. He will throw straight punches, hooks, kicks, elbows, knees. I like his offense.
He lands 7.15 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.38 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. I think his striking is solid and he can definitely win fights at this level with it. He keeps up a heavy pace and has good cardio as well. He looked good against Trey Ogden which is a win that I suppose is starting to age decently.
I think my main criticism for Ignacio’s striking is that he is hittable. He absorbs 4.38 significant strikes per minute which is a lot. So he can be a victim of high-variance moments on the feet even if he is better than his opponents. He does seem to be a tough kid though and has never been knocked out in his career. You saw him get hurt in his most recent loss against Klein though, which just echoes my point that he can get tagged.
Ignacio’s defensive wrestling seems decent. He currently defends takedowns at 85 percent. He stopped all 12 takedowns attempted by Roberts. He also defended all five takedowns in his Contender Series fight. It seems decent, but he was taken down three times against Klein and controlled for six minutes. I do think he was hurt a bit in that fight which contributed to Klein’s wrestling success. Still though, I will be a bit skeptical of Ignacio’s defensive wrestling going forward.
We also just know that Ignacio has cardio and can fight for a hard 15 minutes. He is also very tough. That is why I am going to pick Ignacio to win this fight vs Torres. If Ignacio simply survives, my guess is he will be at an advantage in this fight with his cardio and in extended striking exchanges.
I still just don’t trust Torres and we have literally seen him hurt a couple of times just in a few exchanges. I don’t trust the defensive striking of Torres in extended exchanges at all, while I know Ignacio can stay composed in extended striking exchanges. So I am literally just going to pick Ignacio because he is the more proven fighter in extended fights.
Look, maybe Torres goes out there and lands another knockout. Maybe Torres lands a takedown and gets the back, and submits Ignacio early. It’s a really tough fight to project, but I just know that at this level, first round finishes eventually stop happening. It will eventually happen to Torres too.
My guess is that Ignacio has the toughness and experience to just stay composed and survive early more often than not. So I am going to pick the more proven fighter in Ignacio to weather the early storm and audit the full MMA game of Torres.
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On DraftKings, I’m pretty interested in this matchup and I think it will be a popular one on both sides.
Torres is a very obvious tournament target at 8.2k, considering his resume. He’s fought 17 times and only gone to decision once. He’s scored 114, 105 and 103 in his three UFC bouts as well.
This is definitely a step up in competition, but Torres is +120 to win ITD as a -120 favorite, and the majority of his win equity will come in round one. Potentially his game is deeper than that, but we don’t know and it’s not a safe assumption.
With that said, Torres will rate out as a top-tier tournament option at 8.2k for the early finishing potential. I don’t feel super strongly one way or the other, but I don’t mind rostering him at a high clip. I obviously want some exposure.
I do tend to lean against these types though, so my default will be to pick and roster the fighter who is more proven in extended exchanges, which is Bahamondes.
Bahamondes is 8k and +150 to win ITD so he will rate out very strongly too. I don’t expect him to be as highly owned as Torres, but he will likely still be popular, and has recent DK results of 116, 21, 70, 99 and 104. So there’s upside within his game.
If forced to pick, I will take Bahamondes for the leverage. I guess I should also note that there is some bust risk in an extended fight for both, as wrestling equity is uncertain and maybe Torres slows down and makes the fight weird. So this isn’t a situation where you have to be all-in.
But with mid-range prices, and great finishing metrics, the fight looks like a priority overall. I’ll be pretty heavily exposed to the fight as a whole, with a mild lean toward Bahamondes.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bahamondes by TKO RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza
Fight Odds: Jauregui -554, Souza +405
Odds to Finish: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Jauregui 9.2k, Souza 7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I really enjoyed watching Yazmin Jauregui in her last fight against Sam Hughes where she won a unanimous decision, and she’ll get a spotlight opportunity this weekend against Ketlen Souza.
Jauregui outboxed Hughes and showed some absolutely incredible TDD. The way she got off the cage, used wrist control and underhooks was textbook. I was super impressed and I think a lot of girls are going to struggle taking her down.
Jauregui has had a lot of hype surrounding her so it was a bit of a shocking when she got knocked out by Denise Gomes in her previous fight. However, that felt like a random occurrence and I have generally liked her performances in the UFC other than some suspect durability moments. So I will just chalk that up to an outlier and that maybe Jauregui will have some chin issues going forward, but that’s about it.
Jauregui is best as a volume striker and a boxer. She lands 6.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.12 in return. She is quite skilled as a striker and can fight for a hard 15 minutes with no issue. She also has moderate power and landed a couple of knockdowns against Istela Nunes. She has been dropped in multiple fights though, so I will be monitoring her durability going forward. I really like her striking though and her win against Iasmin Lucindo has aged tremendously.
Jauregui doesn’t seem too interested in wrestling but as mentioned above her TDD looks tremendous. I do want to see her actually on the mat at some point to see her defensive grappling as a whole. However, her TDD looks great and she is defending takedowns at 100 percent.
Jauregui will be taking on Ketlen Souza. Souza is 14-4 professionally and was the Invicta flyweight champion. She lost her UFC debut by getting submitted by Karine Silva. She then won a decision against Marnic Mann by basically outstriking her at distance.
Souza is okay. She is a competent striker and is capable of landing big shots occasionally. She is not great. I don’t totally trust her volume or power but she can crack a bit and has some decent skills on the feet. She is a competent fighter who can fight through the motions.
Souza is also a capable grappler. She can land some takedowns here and there and knows how to flow with BJJ on the mat. She can be stuck on her back though and is a little too willing to play guard. She still knows basic guard retention and can threaten with submissions. I also think Souza has good cardio.
Souza is just fine. She is a pretty well-rounded fighter with no major holes. However, she doesn’t thrive at anything either.
As far as this matchup goes, these girls will probably strike. I doubt Jauregui will even attempt a takedown while I don’t think Souza will be able to get Jauregui down consistently. So these girls will likely strike for 15 minutes and the winner of the striking should win this fight.
I have to go with Jauregui in a striking fight. I just think she is a really good striker. I still semi respect the striking of Souza. Maybe Souza can land a big shot and test Jauregui’s chin. Souza may also be able to compete and stay competitive at times. I don’t think Souza is completely outmatched on the feet or anything. However, I just think Jauregui is a talented striker and should generally get the better of the exchanges and win this fight.
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On DraftKings, Jauregui is priced up to 9.2k which is more than I’d like to pay, but she is a hefty -500 favorite in the matchup.
I like Jauregui a lot as a prospect. I’m less sold on her as a fantasy asset though. She has only scored 68 and 65 in her two decision wins which obviously won’t cut it at this price tag.
She also has a TKO win which scored 129, so if she can find a knockout, Jauregui has viability. That outcome is possible here though not super likely, as Jauregui is only +220 to win ITD.
I don’t expect her to be popular though given the price tag and matchup, and the more I think about it, with Zellhuber likely avoided to a degree as well at 9k, we might just see everyone force in Rosas at 9.7k.
I have mixed feelings because I am a fan of Jauregui, and she’s in a decent matchup. But her profile is more of an extended striker and that’s not a great way to score fantasy points. The most likely outcome here is even in a strong performance, Jauregui doesn’t exceed value.
For that reason, I can’t prioritize her. Using her as a contrarian option makes sense as one way to be unique, but I prefer her for safety rather than pure upside.
Souza at 7k is another contrarian target, and not one I love.
I don’t think Souza or Aoriqileng will be highly owned, so if you want a low-owned dog, those are the options. Souza is a big dog though and +900 to win ITD, so she won’t rate out well.
From a narrative sense, Souza is probably a better submission grappler than Jauregui and Jauregui has been knocked down twice in four UFC fights. It is possible she’ll struggle to take a punch moving forward – sometimes it just happens with fighters – look at Amanda Ribas as one example.
Souza is still just a punt/flier though. At least the fight is projected to extend so she arguably has as strong of a floor as fighters in the low 7k range. I don’t hate punting with her for that reason.
I don’t love her chances to win or produce a ton of offense though, so outside of salary benefits, I won’t be rostering much of Souza.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jauregui by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van
Fight Odds: Van -240, Chairez +200
Odds to Finish: +145
DraftKings Salaries: Van 8.9k, Chairez 7.3k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a pretty fun fight on the prelims here as prospect Joshua Van will bang it out with Edgar Chairez.
Although Van was recently knocked out by Charles Johnson, I was actually impressed with Joshua Van’s performances against Kevin Borjas and Felipe Bunes. Van won by decision against Borjas and put on a high striking pace, landing 156 significant strikes. He also gas pedaled Felipe Bunes and finished him with a high striking pace.
Van’s UFC debut came one fight before that one against Zhalgas Zhumagulov where Van won a close decision and landed another 120 significant strikes.
I liked the dosage of strikes by Van in all of those fights and that is what Van does best. He is a volume striker and will strike with a very high pace for 15 straight minutes. He lands 8.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.34 in return, and defends strikes at 58 percent. Van is overall just a pretty skilled striker. He mixes up kicks with his boxing and he works the body well with his hands. He can have success at range in this division.
Van also seems pretty durable. He was just knocked out by Charles Johnson, but I have never really seen him hurt other than that. Him recently getting hurt does make me a bit nervous though.
I have also seen Van mix in takedowns here and there. He isn’t a good wrestler, but he honestly isn’t bad, and he can get good positions on the mat after tiring his opponents.
Van’s defensive grappling looks to be his biggest issue. He lost a little over two years ago on the regionals. He was generally outwrestled and then submitted by a RNC in the third round. He is only 22 years old now and was only 20 in that fight, and he has clearly improved though. He still was mounted at one point vs Felipe Bunes and surrendered two takedowns in that fight. Bunes just gassed out clearly.
Van will be taking on Edgar Chairez. Chairez is a Mexican fighter and training partner of Brandon Moreno. He is 11-5 professionally.
Chairez has had a weird UFC career. He lost to Tatsuro Taira in his UFC debut which actually has aged well. He generally got outgrappled in the fight but actually knocked Taira down and had some success in general. Chairez then fought Daniel Lacerda and submitted Lacerda but it was ruled a no contest because Lacerda claimed he didn’t go out. Then Chairez fought Lacerda again and submitted him for real from his back.
Chairez is kind of a freestyle fighter and all 11 of his wins have come inside the distance, with a mix of knockouts and submissions.
Chairez is probably best as a striker. He can throw some kicks and knees, and throw okay combinations at times. He is moderately dangerous. However, I don’t think he is all that talented at all. Clayton Carpenter actually outlanded him at distance in Chairez’s Contender Series fight. I think average UFC strikers should outstrike Chairez just fine.
Chairez can occasionally grapple and submit people, but his competition is just bad. I don’t really think he will outgrapple average UFC level fighters. However, he does seem like an opportunist who can submit people if given the right moment.
As far as this matchup goes, I generally think these guys will strike. I really like Van’s offense. It is just so constant. So I am going to pick him because I just love his output. Like I said, Chairez was outlanded at distance on the Contender Series against a much worse opponent.
However, I do think Chairez is dangerous. He could potentially compete in the exchanges and land something to hurt Van. He is also probably a better submission grappler than Van so perhaps he can have some random success on the mat. He has not landed a takedown in any of his four tracked fights though. Chairez is just dangerous enough to maybe find ways to win.
However, Van is just a really good steady striker so my guess is that he survives more often than not and gets ahead on the striking numbers.
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On DraftKings, I’m not sure that this matchup is a priority but I do have some secondary interest on both sides.
Primarily, I like Van. I think we’re getting a discount on him based on his last loss against Charles Johnson, who is a big, long, and high-volume distance striker. Now he’s facing Chairez who has never beaten quality competition, and doesn’t profile as the type to keep pace with Van.
Chairez also doesn’t wrestle much, but gets taken down easily and pulls guard often. The pacing alone of Van should give Chairez lots of problems, and I think Chairez likely needs to secure an early finish to win.
Van may be boom or bust too to a degree, since he’s not a lock to wrestle, and not a lock to win ITD. With that said, Van actually has landed a takedown in each of his past three fights, while Chairez has a 0:7 takedown ratio and is only defending at 41 percent.
Van also throws crazy volume, and has already reached a ceiling of 156 sig. strikes landed. That kind of pace can lead to damage, and his ITD line isn’t horrible at +230.
The risk case is that in a decision, Van could land 120 strikes and score 80 points. At 8.9k, he’s a bit too expensive and doesn’t need to be prioritized.
However, I think he has mild wrestling equity as well, and some KD/TKO equity. If he can secure a mid-round finish like what we saw against Bunes, Van can reach a huge ceiling. He scored 135 in that matchup.
Again, 8.9k is expensive and the most likely outcome is probably a decision, as Chairez is tough. But I love Van’s pace, and this is a step down in competition for him, so I don’t mind him as a secondary target this week.
Chairez at 7.3k has a lot of upside given the matchup. I don’t actually like his talent, and there’s nothing to suggest to me he wins here.
He doesn’t wrestle. He gets taken down easily. He’s taller and longer than Van but his career high in sig. strikes is 51. It’s not a spot I’d like to bet on.
But if he does win, it’s probably because he hurts and/or finishes Van early. Maybe he could wrestle some or match offensive production over 15 minutes, which would also give him a strong ceiling, but that’s doubtful to me.
A random early punch that drops Van or maybe Chairez jumps on a dumb guillotine choke. Those are more likely outcomes. At 7.3k, I don’t love it but it’s viable for the savings.
Chairez is still only +500 to win ITD and it’s ultimately not a spot I’ll be much invested in. But it’s a fine sprinkle or secondary target if you need salary relief.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Van by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
Fight Odds: Rosas -1010, Aoriqileng +641
Odds to Finish: -550
DraftKings Salaries: Rosas 9.7k, Aoriqileng 6.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It looks like the UFC is looking to build up 19-year old Raul Rosas Jr. as he is getting a softball matchup against Aoriqileng at the Sphere this weekend.
I don’t mind Rosas Jr. He gets a lot of shit from some people. However, he is young and developing. I don’t think he will be a champion or anything personally. However, he is a pretty decent grappler and back taker, and he will absolutely wreck below-average grapplers on the mat.
He is 3-1 in the UFC, mostly against poor competition. His one loss was a forgivable one against the very tough Christian Rodriguez.
Rosas is basically a pure grappler. He has some decent takedown variety, and he just has a knack for finding the back. He will pop in triangles and hold position, or threaten with a RNC. It is a good process of winning fights.
Rosas lands 4.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. Rosas doesn’t really look to strike much. He just looks to limit engagements and get this grappling going. I like that he actually goes for his takedowns too. He doesn’t mess around and just goes to his path to victory.
Rosas definitely has some issues though. First, he is a liability on the feet. He just knocked out Terrence Mitchell, but make no mistake, I basically have zero confidence in his striking. He is going to get wrecked standing at some point again.
Second, he is just not super physical and will just fail to throw around seasoned and strong grapplers. I don’t think Rosas is THAT bad with his physicality. However, he is just a young kid and is still growing and putting real weight on. He needs to fill out his frame.
Rosas also slowed down vs Rodriguez. I don’t give him that much crap for that matchup though. Rodriguez is a pretty good fighter and Rodriguez also came from behind to beat a very good wrestler in Isaac Dulgarian. I mean Rosas still had a lot of success against Rodriguez in round one. Rodriguez was just a little too much for Rosas later in the fight which is forgivable.
I dislike that Rosas only landed two significant strikes in that fight. Two significant strikes landed in 15 minutes is just really bad.
I still think Rosas is going to have some bumps and losses going forward. However, he will feast off low tier grapplers in the UFC.
Rosas will be taking on Aoriqileng. Aoriqileng was last seen in the cage pathetically giving up against Daniel Marcos. I had bet Marcos in that fight and Marcos was absolutely dominating the matchup. Marcos then committed an unintentional foul, Aoriqileng put on a bad acting job, quit, and took a no contest. Aoriqileng is always on my shit list for that one.
Aoriqileng has had some fun fights and is 3-3 in the UFC. Aoriqileng is basically an action fighter who relies on striking pace. He lands 5.31 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.03 in return. He has good cardio and occasional power, and can fight aggressively at times. However, he just has no defense, can be hurt a lot and gets hit way too often for my liking. He is basically going to have to win fights at this level against low competition.
I don’t consider Aoriqileng a very good grappler either. He lands 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes but it has come vs poor competition. He also defends takedowns at a poor 58 percent. He can scramble up decently at times. However, he was taken down five times by Durden, three times by Perrin, and four times by Munoz. I just don’t like that he has surrendered that many takedowns.
Aoriqileng has never been submitted in the UFC. However, he has been submitted on the regionals three times and he only has one submission win himself in 36 professional fights.
As far as this matchup goes, Rosas can surely land takedowns here and my guess is it will look like any Rosas fight. I think Rosas will land takedowns, look for the back, and very likely submit Aoriqileng. This is the best submission grappler that Qileng has faced so I don’t trust Aoriqileng to survive at all. Rosas can also probably slap in body triangles to control Aoriqileng too.
Aoriqileng could potentially have a cardio and striking advantage. So maybe he survives, Rosas slows down, and this fight becomes interesting. Perhaps Qileng will quit from a foul and win by DQ as him and Cody Brundage seem to dig that path to victory.
However, I don’t know if Aoriqileng has the skill set to gas Rosas. Rosas fought three rounds no problem on the Contender Series against Mando Gutierrez. Rosas gassed against Rodriguez because Rodriguez has a defensive wrestling skillset to make top wrestlers work and tire out. I said the same thing about Dulgarian as well when he gassed against Rodriguez. I think Dulgarian and Rosas are capable of grappling for three rounds against many guys, just not Rodriguez.
So I am going to pick Rosas here. He is just a much better grappler than Aoriqileng and I doubt Aoriqileng has the defense to stop it.
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On DraftKings, Rosas is priced up to 9.7k which is super expensive, but we’ve seen recently that the public has zero problems loading up on these high-priced talents.
Given the state of the slate, with only 10 fights, I expect Rosas to be very chalky as well.
He has the box scores to back it up too – he’s scored 111 and 133 in his last two wins which is clearly enough to be optimal at this price tag. And in general, he’s an aggressive wrestler which is the best way to score fantasy points, so I will continue to expect strong results in wins.
My main issue with Rosas is that he doesn’t land enough strikes though. He’s landed a total of 26 significant strikes in 26 minutes of cage time, which is awful. And he’s only landed an additional 55 non-sig strikes which is poor as well.
It puts Rosas into a more boom or bust category than I’d like. For example, his UFC debut RD 1 sub win only scored 106 points. And had he gotten his hand raised against Rodriguez by decision, he would have only scored 55 points.
I should also note that his 133 point score came with a quick win bonus, which isn’t really predictive. Rosas still has upside, but he will need an early grappling based finish. Without it, he just doesn’t land enough strikes to reach an elite ceiling and I’d be nervous about rostering him at 9.7k.
The matchup here is good, and Rosas is a heavy favorite approaching -1000 to win. He’s also -360 to win ITD. He will rate out extremely well because of it and can be prioritized throughout any format.
I do feel like the line is a bit wide though, just because Aoriqileng can fight for three rounds and can strike. If Rosas isn’t literally on top of him holding him down, Rosas might not even be winning. And the kid is not even 20 years old yet, so my expectations are still limited.
In summary, Rosas rates out as an elite play on this slate due to his style and metrics. I am expecting a win and a strong DK score. He can be prioritized if you can afford his salary.
I don’t think he’s as safe as his betting line makes it seem though, and due to some limitations in his style, I question the consistency of him finding a top-end score. Because of that, and the expected chalk, I wouldn’t mind pivoting away to be unique or forcing in a more mid-range construction to be a bit different.
Aoriqileng doesn’t interest me much at 6.5k.
He will be very low owned and he will carry strong leverage against Rosas Jr. If you have a large portfolio to play with, mixing in a small amount of Aoriqileng makes sense.
However, I would just prefer to pay up for more win equity. And it’s not a great matchup where I’m not expecting Aoriqileng to produce a ton of offense. Even in a win, he might just hang around and outstrike Rosas a bit in a decision. He’s only +650 to win ITD.
So I’m not convinced that even in an upset, Aoriqileng will be optimal. There aren’t many other places to pay up and there are going to be some elite scores in the mid-range. All things considered, I’ll be extremely light on Aoriqileng this weekend.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rosas by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)