Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Fight Odds: Ankalaev -108, Pereira -106
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 8.3k, Ankalaev 7.9k
Weight Class: 205
One of the biggest stars in the sport today, and fortunately for us, one of the most active ones as well, Alex Pereira will step back into the Octagon on Saturday to defend his light heavyweight title against Magomed Ankalaev.
This is a fight that has been in the makings for quite some time, as many see Ankalaev as the biggest test for Pereira in this division, myself included.
And quite frankly, the more I look into this matchup, this is a fight that Ankalaev should win.
Yes, I consider Alex Pereira an extremely dangerous kickboxer given his pedigree and his performances inside of the UFC, and I absolutely think he can beat Ankalaev on the feet over 25 minutes, or perhaps even knock him out.
At the same time, Ankalaev has a very clear and sizable wrestling advantage over Pereira, and if he chooses to use it, Ankalaev should win.
It’s a bit ironic that I need to phrase it in this way because historically, Ankalaev hasn’t really wanted to wrestle. He’s a solid kickboxer himself, and he prefers to stand and trade. He’s only landing 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes which is a very low rate and one that doesn’t exactly make me feel comfortable he will want to chase takedowns.
In fact, it’s been one of my biggest gripes with Ankalaev through his UFC career. He’s not urgent enough, both on the feet and on the mat, and that lack of urgency shows up in his metrics.
In 14 UFC fights, Ankalaev has only taken down seven of his opponents. He’s only landed two or more takedowns TWICE, which is disgustingly low. So typically, Ankalaev is the type who will stand and trade at range, at a slower pace, and occasionally he’ll land a single takedown.
It’s just not my favorite style of fighting as I prefer more offensive production.
However, it would clearly make sense for Ankalaev to wrestle in this situation. Excluding the idea that he could still be competitive standing, he should know wrestling is where he has the clear advantage and he should also know that’s where Pereira is weakest.
Pereira is surely a more comfortable wrestler and grappler now than what he was when he entered the UFC in 2021. He’s defending takedowns at 70 percent in total which is respectable, and he trains with Glover Teixeira who’s a legit BJJ black belt and someone who should be able to teach Pereira his craft on the mat.
It still shouldn’t matter enough. Ankalaev has been wrestling with bears in his native Dagestan since he was four.
And we have enough of a sample of Pereira getting taken down that it’s pretty difficult for me to view this matchup in any other lens then Ankalaev having a clear edge in that realm.
Forget about Pereira giving up two takedowns in his debut to some random regional fighter named Andreas Michailidis. Forget about giving up two takedowns to a striker in Bruno Silva. Forget about him giving up a takedown to Israel Adesanya of all people.
What sticks in my mind the most is Pereira’s fight against Jan Blachowicz in 2023, where Blachowicz got him down three times in three rounds, and arguably won that fight outright.
Blachowicz is OK. He’s a fine wrestler but nothing special. He got Pereira down easily in round one and took his back, and held him there for the rest of the round. In round two, he took him down quite easily again though Pereira worked his way up toward the end of the round.
Ankalaev is clearly superior to every wrestler Pereira has ever faced. Again, there are urgency issues here, but when Ankalaev actually goes for it, he’s been pretty successful.
Ankalaev also fought Blachowicz in a title fight and after getting his legs kicked to bits in the early rounds, Ankalaev decided to wrestle where he quite easily got Blachowicz down and earned 9:22 of control in the final 10 minutes.
Ankalaev isn’t the greatest submission grappler though. One takedown won’t mean the end of the fight here necessarily and it’s somewhat likely Pereira could still survive or work his way up. Maybe he can even defend a few takedowns early.
Ankalaev is a solid top control fighter though and he’s pretty vicious with ground-and-pound. From a projection standpoint, Ankalaev should be shooting more takedowns than he would in an average fight, and he should be able to land a few. That could easily be enough to dominate multiple rounds, if not win the fight inside the distance, and it should largely be enough to carry him to the win.
If Ankalaev fails to wrestle, and we get a pure kickboxing fight, then of course Pereira could win and he would be the favorite.
He’s a more powerful striker, and he throws more volume than Ankalaev. However, it’s not one-way traffic there either.
Ankalaev likes to slow the pace down and limit exchanges as do most fighters from this region, and he’s pretty decent as a striker too. He lands 3.64 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.37 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. He doesn’t get hit that much.
His biggest issue is that he doesn’t throw many strikes. He’s coming off a three-round decision in which he and Rakic both landed 50 strikes at distance. Ankalaev attempted zero takedowns. Ankalaev won but it’s exactly the type of fight that makes me question his game planning and low-volume style.
At the same time, he’s effective offensively. He fights out of southpaw and can kick well at distance. I think he can be quite competitive with Pereira here actually, minute to minute, and he’d have some real chance to hurt Pereira too. I would still trust Pereira in totality over the 25 minute distance and would favor him to land the bigger shots, but it’s not as if the fight is done and dusted if Ankalaev has to strike for a few minutes.
The main way I see Ankalaev failing, outside of getting hurt quickly, is if he decides to strike for several rounds before wrestling. He didn’t wrestle much with Blachowicz until round four. He may honestly want to test himself on the feet with Pereira, or he may just attempt a casual takedown once per round for the first 15 minutes.
That type of game plan is super annoying but very possible and if it happens, Pereira just get ahead of the scorecards or do enough damage to make a comeback difficult.
To me, it just makes logical sense that Ankalaev will eventually wrestle with some urgency, where he should find top position, and I don’t know if Pereira can get back up. Overall, it’s enough for me to favor Ankalaev outright here and he could look like a sizable favorite in hindsight.
I definitely respect the kickboxing of Pereira and am not counting him out of this matchup, especially as Ankalaev has some stylistic issues that I’ve talked about. But I have to favor Ankalaev for his significant wrestling upside and competent kickboxing.
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On DraftKings, Pereira is priced as the favorite at 8.3k even though the betting line is trending toward Ankalaev.
I don’t think it will matter too much, even if Ankalaev is the clear favorite by fight night. Pereira is a massive star and he’s put up huge DK scores over and over again. He’s coming off wins of 101, 107, and 110, and even if he’s the underdog, there will be a huge percentage of the public who will want to jam him in.
So ultimately I am expecting Pereira to be one of the higher owned fighters on this slate. He’s +105 to win ITD which is still quite strong, and we know he has legit knockout upside.
I don’t think this is a great matchup for him though, from a fantasy perspective. Obviously there’s a chance that he loses and gets held down but even besides that, Ankalaev just doesn’t get hit that often. This isn’t a fight that I would expect to be a war, and I think it’s more likely that we see singular shots land from both sides.
Over 25 minutes, in a win, I’d project Pereira for something like 100 significant strikes. Ankalaev has allowed 55 and 60 sig. strikes over five rounds in his last two main events. That would only equate to a 70 point DK score and it wouldn’t be optimal. And that still could be too high.
If Ankalaev is having some success landing takedowns, that will just limit Pereira further. We could see 60-80 strikes in a win and even less than 70 DK points.
Pereira won’t have any wrestling equity on paper and therefore just not many options to score. He really needs a KO and he really needs an early KO to maximize his DK upside.
Just due to variance alone, it’s possible. I’m not saying you can’t play him and I’m not saying he can’t or won’t win. I don’t think he knocks Ankalaev out early at a high rate though, and my best guess is that this fight extends for a while. It’s -155 to go Over 2.5 rounds.
If this fight hits round three, do you really want heavy exposure to Pereira at potential chalk? I’d argue no. And given my analysis that he could very easily lose the fight outright, I expect I will be way underweight to the field on Pereira.
He is simply a high-upside, but very boom or bust tournament target in my mind who doesn’t have a particularly strong or easy path to reach that ceiling. He’s still dangerous though and this range is filled with a lot of boom or bust options.
Ankalaev at 7.9k will be my preferred play and I am guessing he could be very popular as well, especially if he ends up being the favorite by fight night.
Ankalaev is not the best fantasy scorer either, which makes me nervous, but I feel less nervous in that he should have significant wrestling equity in a win. Despite not doing a whole lot against Blachowicz, Ankalaev wrestled late and would have scored 114 points if he’d been awarded the decision, rather than the draw.
We have seen major downside risk to him though, like in his most recent fight against Rakic where he landed 50 strikes and scored 59 in a decision. I suppose there is a possibility where Ankalaev wrestles minimally, and wins a decision while only landing 80-100 strikes. So I could see something like 80 points for Ankalaev in a win as well..
I’m going to play Ankalaev pretty heavily myself though. He just has a clear path to some takedowns, and even with 2-3, he should be able to rack up control time as well as ground strikes. Over five rounds, it should add up to the point that he will exceed value in a win, and potentially smash his way through to the optimal lineup.
Ankalaev is only +205 to win ITD here so his finishing chances aren’t a guarantee but again it doesn’t really matter if he’s wrestling. If he’s not wrestling, he’ll probably just lose.
I’m not sure if this will be a fun fight but I’m excited to watch it play out, and I definitely will be higher on the Ankalaev side this week myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ankalaev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
Fight Odds: Fiziev -164, Gaethje +141
Odds to end ITD: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Fiziev 8.4k, Gaethje 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
In the co-main event of the evening, we have a banger and a rematch between two guys who will be trying to take each other’s heads off in Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev. Justin Gaethje was originally scheduled to fight Dan Hooker. However, Hooker had to pull out and Rafael Fiziev took his place. This will be three rounds instead of the original five.
Rafael Fiziev comes from an extensive Muay Thai background and it shows in his fights. He is a very skilled and explosive striker, especially with his kicking game to the body and to the legs. He can also fight out of both stances.
Fiziev doesn’t grapple much and only lands 0.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t really expect offensive grappling to ever be a consistent way for him to win fights, which is a negative, as it limits his ways to win fights. However, he defends takedowns at a stellar 89 percent which is a positive as Fiziev can generally manufacture striking fights where he thrives.
It is funny that Fiziev’s striking ratios are actually not very good. He lands 4.90 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.97 in return, and only defends strikes at 49 percent. So he can be hit. However, a lot of his strikes absorbed were against Green who lands a lot of strikes to the legs and body that aren’t very impactful. So Fiziev’s metrics are probably skewed to a slight degree.
Furthermore, I do think because Fiziev hits so hard from a strike per strike basis that he will continue to win fights if he is just in the general ballpark of his opponent’s strike count. So he will probably continue to outperform his striking metrics as he just generally hits harder than his opponents.
I do worry about Fiziev’s cardio. He is extremely explosive early but he has slowed down in many three round fights that I have seen him in, even dropping round three to Marc Diakiese and Bobby Green. I don’t think Fiziev’s cardio is awful or anything, but it is definitely not a strength of his.
Lastly, I do worry about Fiziev’s durability a bit. He was finished by Magomed Mustafaev in round one and he was also hurt by Bobby Green to a degree in round three. Again, I don’t think his durability is awful or anything and maybe I am overreacting, but striking is a high-variance sport and he will always be at risk to get hurt.
Also, Fiziev has been out for a very long time. He injured his knee against Gamrot in his last matchup in September of 2023 and has not fought since. So it will be interesting to see how he will look.
Fiziev will be taking on lightweight slugger Justin Gaethje. Although Gaethje comes from a wrestling background, this guy doesn’t look to wrestle at all. He lands 0.11 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also has good TDD at 75 percent and looks to use his wrestling in reverse to keep the fight standing.
Gaethje is a pretty awful submission grappler, but it generally doesn’t matter in most matchups as he is tough to get down to the mat. I doubt it matters against Fiziev either, who likes to strike.
Gaethje also likes to strike. He is a high pace volume striker who also packs power and has one punch KO power. Gaethje lands a ridiculous 6.78 significant strikes per minute and absorbs a ridiculous 7.46 in return. He defends strikes at 52 percent. Gaethje has some solid hooks in the pocket and has some devastating leg kicks. He is clearly capable of producing knockouts and breaking opponents with his pace.
However, I still just worry about Gaethje’s style because it is so high-variance. Furthermore, the guy is just so hittable and I don’t totally trust his chin. He generally gets hurt in fights and puts himself out there to be hit very hard and often. He is coming off his historic knockout loss to Max Holloway as well where I thought he looked bad. So I just worry about his durability to a degree.
These two guys actually fought two years ago in a co-main event in a three rounder. Fiziev was a -230 favorite going into that matchup. Gaethje won an extremely competitive majority decision and outlanded Fiziev 103-97 in significant strikes.
Essentially, Fiziev won round one in a competitive but clear way where Fiziev outlanded Gaethje 27-23 in significant strikes. Fiziev was just a little more powerful and faster than Gaethje early. Fiziev was able to land some good body kicks. All of the judges gave Fiziev this round which I agreed with.
In round two, Fiziev also had a speed and explosion-based advantage early and was winning the exchanges in the first half of the round. Then in the last two minutes or so, Fiziev slowed down slightly and was a little slower, and Gaethje was able to get the better of the boxing exchanges. Two judges gave Gaethje this round and one judge gave it to Fiziev. It was honestly a very close round. Fiziev actually outlanded Gaethje 32-27 in significant strikes in this round. I honestly leaned a little to Fiziev and feel Gaethje only got the round because he ended it well. However, I totally understand scoring it for Gaethje.
In round three, Fiziev came out hard and hurt Gaethje in the first minute. Then Gaethje just kind of boxed Fiziev up. Fiziev really slowed down and Gaethje dominated the round. He outlanded Fiziev 53-38 in significant strikes. This was an easy Gaethje round.
So overall, it was a split decision type of fight where round two was the swing round. It was pretty clear that Fiziev was the faster fighter while fresh but Gaethje just had better cardio in general. One thing I want to point out is that Gaethje actually dominated the head strike battle and outlanded Fiziev 81-38 in head strikes.
As far as this rematch goes, I think the dynamic is still pretty similar. I think Fiziev will be at an advantage early with the speed and explosiveness while I think Gaethje should have a cardio advantage. Fiziev is better with his kicks while I think Gaethje has better hands.
I do think I trust Fiziev’s durability a little more. Gaethje has been hurt and knocked out several times and I just worry about Gaethje coming off that loss to Holloway. I honestly think I am going to pick Fiziev because I trust his durability more.
However, I just worry about Fiziev here too. He has never had great cardio, and he is coming off a long layoff and is taking this on short notice. I can’t imagine either of those things helping Fiziev’s cardio.
I think a pick ‘em line makes sense. I really just expect a high-variance matchup where Fiziev should be at an advantage early and Gaethje should be at an advantage later. I think if you are a Gaethje supporter here, it would be better to play him live because I do think Fiziev will win the early exchanges.
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On DraftKings, this is a pretty difficult fight to take a stand on because without a knockout, I don’t see it producing an optimal score. However, the same can be said for most fights on this slate.
Gaethje won the first matchup and scored 77 DK points, which wouldn’t be enough for me on this slate at 7.8k. If Fiziev had won, he would have scored 69 points, which is definitely not enough at 8.4k.
Most likely, we’ll see a similar scenario. These guys will bang it out and the fight projects to extend at -120 to go Over 2.5 rounds.
However, both guys are very powerful and both can be hurt. Gaethje we know can be knocked out. So I do think Fiziev has some knockout upside and he’s +160 to win ITD. At the same time, Fiziev is fighting on short notice off an injury, and obviously Gaethje is wild and explosive. I also think Gaethje has knockout upside and he’s +315 to win ITD.
Overall it makes it quite difficult to take a stand on either side, or for or against the fight. My lean if I had one would be to come in light on the fight and hope it extends. Both fighters are at least tough, if not durable, and they simply don’t have great ways to score fantasy points without a KO.
You could also argue that Fiziev is the better play straight up and a quality secondary target overall given his ITD line advantages. But he is still extremely boom or bust, so I would have to firmly cap my exposure to him. Gaethje is higher paced though and probably has a higher ceiling of the two, and he’s cheaper. So I could understand using him as a secondary target.
I think I will aim to be light in general on this fight, but I’m happy to mix in both sides near the field percentage, or a little bit under. I wouldn’t expect either to be super chalky, despite the name value, because most will know that the fight can extend and will see the weak box scores from the first fight.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fiziev by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Fight Odds: Bahamondes -131, Turner +114
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Bahamondes 8.2k, Turner 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger of a matchup here in the lightweight division between the extremely dangerous Jalin Turner and the always game Ignacio Bahamondes.
Jalin Turner was last seen in action getting beaten on the mat by Renato Moicano. He previously finished Bobby Green in one of the worst late stoppages in recent memory.
Turner is a physical freak. He is 6’3” with a 77-inch reach. Turner lands big strikes on the feet and is super powerful. He is honestly capable of hurting anyone. He is 7-5 in the UFC with all seven wins coming by finish.
Turner lands 5.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.57. He isn’t super technical but with his physicality and power, he is tough to deal with. He has powerful punches and can mix in ruthless kicks and knees as well.
I do worry about Turner a bit in extended striking exchanges though. He only defends strikes at 41 percent and his defense is suspect to me. If he doesn’t just finish someone or bully them, I do think he could get out skilled on the feet. I had those feelings going into the Dan Hooker fight and thought Hooker had a very good chance for the upset. The fight got extended and Hooker landed 125 significant strikes, and hurt Turner several times en route to the upset win. Turner’s lack of defense showed up in that fight.
Turner also has sneaky suspect durability. He has been hurt and knocked out several times in his UFC career, even on the regional scene.
Turner is an okay grappler. He lands 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think he is a guy who will go land takedowns and control decent grapplers. However, he is physical and capable of locking in submissions on hurt opponents.
Turner’s defensive wrestling is okay and he defends takedowns at 74 percent and his physicality does aid him. However, Matt Frevola landed four takedowns on 13 attempts on him and controlled him for 5:07. Gamrot also had grappling success against him. Good grapplers can definitely have success against him.
Turner will be taking on UFC veteran Ignacio Bahamondes. Ignacio is very much a striker. He has never landed a takedown in the UFC and seems to have no interest in grappling. He just wants to strike. He landed a viral knockout in his matchup against Roosevelt Roberts a few years back. It was a cool one. He also is coming off a huge knockout win at UFC Noche against Manuel Torres. I backed him in that fight and he was the underdog so it was good to see him get the win.
Ignacio is long for the division. He is 6’3” and has a 75” reach so he is nearly Turner’s equal in that department. He has a lot of offense and diversity in his strikes. He will throw straight punches, hooks, kicks, elbows, knees. I like his offense. He lands 7.17 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.41 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. I think his striking is solid and he can definitely win fights at this level with it. He keeps up a heavy pace and has good cardio as well.
I think my main criticism for Ignacio’s striking is that he is hittable to a degree. He absorbs 4.41 significant strikes per minute which is a lot. So he can be a victim of high-variance moments on the feet even if he is better than his opponents. He does seem to be a tough kid though and has never been knocked out in his career. You saw him get hurt in his most recent loss against Klein though which just echoes my point that he can get tagged.
Ignacio’s defensive wrestling seems decent. He currently defends takedowns at 85 percent. He stopped all 12 takedowns attempted by Roberts. He also defended all five takedowns in his Contender Series fight. It seems decent, but he was taken down three times against Klein and controlled for six minutes. I do think he was hurt a bit in that fight which contributed to Klein’s wrestling success. Still though, I will be a bit skeptical of Ignacio’s defensive wrestling going forward.
As far as this matchup goes, I generally think these guys will strike as Ignacio never wrestles and has good TDD.
On the feet, I think Turner hits harder and is overall more dangerous from a single moment / strike perspective. Ignacio does absorb strikes as well. So I do think Turner can hurt Ignacio or put him away. The path to victory is there for Turner as it is for any matchup that Turner is in.
However, I do think Ignacio is a little more skillful as a striker and a little more trustworthy in an extended fight. I think Turner’s defense is worse as far as absorbing an accumulation of strikes goes. So if this fight extends past a round or so, I do think Ignacio will probably be getting the better of the exchanges. Ignacio honestly will probably hurt Turner over an extended fight just because Ignacio has some power and Turner does have some suspect durability and defense.
I don’t know man, this is a very high-variance matchup. Turner may kill Ignacio at any moment, especially early. However, Ignacio is extremely tough and if he just survives, I think he will win this fight.
So I will go with Ignacio to win here. However, with all the variance in striking fights lately (like Patterson knocking out Barlow and Simon knocking out Basharat), it is hard to be fully confident in a fight like this.
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On DraftKings, I feel no choice but to invest in this one moderately as there is definitely more ITD potential than many fights surrounding it.
At the same time, it’s far from a guarantee, and these guys simply survive, even in a war that goes the distance, it probably won’t be optimal. It’s worth noting the fight ITD line is good at -200, but not phenomenal.
Both have 100 sig. strike upside but that won’t really matter if the fight goes the distance. In his lone decision win, Bahamondes scored 70 points and he would have only scored 78 in his UFC debut which he barely lost on the cards. So at 8.2k, Bahamondes is arguably boom/bust.
It’s scary because knocking out Jalin Turner isn’t an easy task. At potential chalky ownerships, I honestly don’t think it’s a terrible idea to come in underweight for pure strategy and leverage on the field.
Still, these guys are almost certainly going to bang it out. Both are very capable of throwing in volume and hurting one another. I do like the fight and like the ITD upside, so I will probably fall in line with the field myself.
Bahamondes at 8.2k is my slightly preferred target but only slightly, and he’s +200 to win ITD which is OK. I prefer him in an extended fight but he could hurt Turner at any time. I don’t think I will be exceptionally high or above the field here, but I’ll have a fair share of Bahamondes by default.
Turner actually has the better ITD line at +145 so you can argue he’s the superior target outright. Coming off a loss while Bahamondes is coming off a win probably means Bahamondes will carry more public ownership too, so leaning on the Turner side for potential leverage is very viable.
Turner also may have a bit more early win equity than Bahamondes so you can argue his pure ceiling is higher as well. Plus, Turner has more grappling upside of the two, even though I don’t think it will really matter.
Like Bahamondes, Turner still probably busts in an extended fight. However, he’s never won a decision in the UFC so by playing him you are potentially tying yourself to more finishing equity. Come to think of it, Turner may just be the better play of the two because of these reasons.
I still can’t lean too heavily in either direction and I will pick Bahamondes to win outright as I prefer him technically and over an extended period. I think it makes sense to have exposure to this fight and I prefer this fight outright to many others in this range.
Both sides should gain ownership and I don’t think it’s a spot you have to take a major stand on, as it’s just risky in every direction. Both fighters are good tournament targets overall for their price and I will probably end up relatively split down the middle with moderate/heavy exposure overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bahamondes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo
Fight Odds: Lucindo -136, Lemos +118
Odds to end ITD: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Lucindo 8.5k, Lemos 7.7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting fight here in the strawweight division as young prospect Iasmin Lucindo will be taking on UFC veteran Amanda Lemos.
Lucindo is only 23 years old and is now 4-1 in the UFC. She lost a competitive striking fight against Yazmin Jauregui in her UFC debut and has now won four straight with her most recent win coming against Marina Rodriguez in a close decision.
I mostly consider Lucindo a generalist. She is a well-rounded fighter.
As a striker, Lucindo has good hands and combination punching. She also has good cardio and doesn’t slow down for 15 minutes. She is pretty quick in general. She lands 3.52 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.91 in return. She has okay output but I would like it to be a bit higher. I don’t think she will outstrike the good strikers in this division as she isn’t super dangerous. However, I consider her an overall decent striker though.
Lucindo can also wrestle a bit and that is actually what she has been relying on to win fights. She lands 2.40 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed 4, 2, 2, and 3 takedowns in her last four fights. She really likes to go to a body lock takedown. I think her takedowns are okay, and she can float on top a bit.
I am a bit concerned about Lucindo’s submission defense and TDD though. She has three submission losses on her record in the regionals but I could not find those fights. To be fair, most of those fights were over four or five years ago when she was 16 to 17 years old lol. So she certainly has improved since then and maybe has leveled up her submission defense. It is hard to know for sure either way.
She did get taken down briefly by Rodriguez in her last fight but immediately went to a leg lock and ended up reversing the position, which is at least better than her laying on her back and playing guard until the round ends.
Overall though, Lucindo is a solid fighter. She can strike a bit and grapple a bit and doesn’t seem to have any glaring holes in her game. She is honestly just very well-rounded for such a young fighter.
Lucindo will be taking on UFC Veteran Amanda Lemos. Lemos is a power striker. She lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.87 in return. However, most of her strikes absorbed all came against Leslie Smith when Lemos was very tired, and against other good competition. The other main fight was against Weili Zhang which is understandable. So I tend to think that she is a bit better of a striker than her metrics indicate.
I do expect Lemos to have success in this division with her striking because she is technical and powerful and she is capable of hurting and knocking out opponents. She is a very heavy hitter and has rare power for this weight class.
Lemos is an okay offensive grappler. She lands 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes and can float on top position a little bit. She also has random owner guillotines in her game as well. She is a plus finisher for this weight class.
Lemos is pretty physically strong. However, I will say that Lemos’ defensive grappling just continues to be an issue. She defends takedowns at 61 percent and was outgrappled by Zhang, Dern, and Jandiroba. Those are all elite grapplers and fighters so I can forgive Lemos to a degree. However, I just tend to think Lemos gives up soft takedowns and looks like a bit of a liability off her back. Lesser fighters will likely struggle to replicate what Zhang, Dern, and Jandiroba could do to Lemos. However, I do think decent grapplers can still take Lemos down and occasionally hold her down.
That is honestly why I am leaning Lucindo to win a decision here. I do think Lucindo can probably mix in a couple of body lock takedowns, get some top time, and win some rounds. I honestly am picking Lucindo just because I think she is more likely to win rounds with takedowns and control time.
However, I do think Lemos is the more dangerous striker and I still think Lucindo is untested to a degree in certain areas of MMA. Lemos may be able to threaten with submissions or get on top herself. I also think I favor Lemos standing as well. Although, I still think Lucindo can compete standing, but Lemos is definitely more dangerous and can probably land the harder shots.
I am still going to pick Lucindo here. I have never liked the defensive grappling of Lemos and I think there is a chance Lucindo can have a decent amount of success there.
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On DraftKings, this is a tough one but I have mild interest.
The primary reason why I have interest is because I think we are going to see grappling exchanges. Lucindo has landed two or more takedowns in each of her last four fights, and wrestling again looks like a clear path to victory for her against Lemos.
So that’s going to give Lucido a path to score points, especially against an opponent who can give up a lot of takedowns and can even be submitted.
At the same time, I don’t fully trust Lucindo in this matchup and I think Lemos is possibly underrated because she’s lost to some high-level grapplers. I was heavy on Jandiroba over Lemos but Jandiroba is an elite sub grappler and she had to fight pretty hard to get on top of Lemos.
Lemos also attempts guillotines and things, and I think she could end up on top of Lucindo as well. This is not one way traffic in my mind.
The difficulty is that Lucindo isn’t super high paced, so if the fight goes the distance, I’m not sure she will exceed value. Lucindo has scored 75, 85 and 73 in her three UFC decision, which probably is not enough at this price tag, and those all came with takedowns.
It’s actually a major concern of mine, and Lucindo is only +475 to win ITD here. I do think she has submission upside but probably not a massive amount.
Lucindo rates out pretty well from a floor stand point at 8.5k because this could be an action fight, and Lucindo may be forced to grapple. I think she’ll score relatively well for her price, but I am more concerned about her tournament ceiling.
I only consider Lucindo a secondary target because of this. I don’t mind mixing her in for wrestling equity, but she just hasn’t proven enough of a ceiling without a finish and that’s going to be a tough outcome. Ultimately you don’t need to force a lot of her in, if you don’t expect a finish.
Lemos at 7.7k isn’t a guarantee either, even in a win.
She’s scored 75 and 68 in her last two decision wins, which wouldn’t be enough for this price tag. Lucindo isn’t a high-paced fighter so even though Lemos is, I wouldn’t project her for a huge volume of strikes or takedowns landed. It does make me think she will underperform in a decision.
The positive is that Lemos has a strong ITD line at +275. I think the discrepancy between hers and Lucindo’s isn’t fair, but still, Lemos is dangerous both on the feet and with some submissions. She probably will attempt guillotines too if Lucindo shoots takedowns, so that could give her a random WMMA path to 90-95 points if she can pull it off.
I don’t mind Lemos. She’s at least viable because she’s a power striker with some grappling equity. But it’s also very difficult to find reasons to be super excited, unless you think she’s going to win ITD. She rates out well enough to mix in as a secondary target but she won’t be a real priority and I am not expecting her to get the job done.
I like this fight and it should be fun but it’s one of many that has questionable ceiling outcomes without a finish, in a matchup that’s still -220 to go the distance.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lucindo by Decision (Confidence=Low)
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
Fight Odds: Ruffy -471, Green +355
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Ruffy 9.4k, Green 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun matchup here as the always entertaining Bobby “King” Green will be taking on the rising Mauricio Ruffy.
We know the drill with Green. He is a skilled striker, especially with his boxing / jab and he also has good teep / front kicks to the body. Green lands 6.43 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.73 in return. He defends strikes at 62 percent. So his metrics are honestly fantastic and are the main reason why he has been a staple in my betting portfolio for years.
Green will always be competitive with his striking skills and volume, and that gives him a high floor in most matchups. He is just a skilled guy and is generally pretty durable as well. He also has great cardio and can fight all day.
Green is also a capable wrestler. He lands 1.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 74 percent, and is a tough cat to hold down. He doesn’t have the best top control, but he is capable of landing a couple of takedowns and getting a little bit of control time on the mat.
The only concern with Green is his age. He is 38 years old now and has gotten knocked out twice in the last couple of years against Drew Dober and Jalin Turner. So I am a little more nervous now that he can get knocked out.
Green will be taking on the very hyped Mauricio Ruffy. Ruffy is 28 years old and fights out of the Fighting Nerds camp. He is 11-1 professionally with 10 wins coming by knockout. He is now 2-0 in the UFC and has a ton of hype.
Ruffy has a lot of hype because he has an entertaining and fan-friendly striking style. Ruffy’s style kind of reminds me of Conor McGregor although Ruffy generally fights out of the orthodox stance.
Ruffy has that karate / capoeira looking style and will spring in and out and land extremely accurate single shots. He will mix in some spinning stuff and kicks, and it is fun to watch.
Although Ruffy throws a lot of flash, his bread and butter is his right hand. He throws it extremely fast, powerfully, and accurately. He will definitely hurt and knock people dead at this level.
Ruffy doesn’t look too interested in wrestling offensively. I have seen him look competent on the mat in some exchanges and defend takedowns here and there, but I think he is largely untested on the mat.
I do think Ruffy is a fun fighter who can win fights at this level and beat some good guys. He will have some fun knockouts too. However, my main issue with Ruffy is that I just think he is overrated. He can be hit on the feet a bit and he also tires out a bit.
Even in Ruffy’s last matchup against James Llontop, he was a -1000 favorite and won a 29-28 decision where he was outstruck 90-67 in significant strikes. He won round 1 by landing a bigger shot at the very end, in what was an otherwise very competitive round. Then he landed some big shots in round 2 and hurt Llontop. Ruffy was then tired and lost round 3 clear. Ruffy rightfully won the fight. However, his power really bailed him out and he was arguably a single power shot away from losing the fight.
I also think Ruffy is too big of a favorite here against Bobby Green. These guys are probably going to exclusively strike.
Obviously, Ruffy could knock Green out or hurt him to steal a round or two. Green has been getting hurt and I seriously respect the power of Ruffy. So Ruffy can definitely win here and I did pick him to win because of the power advantage. He is also 10 years younger than Green which matters for progression and regression purposes.
However, if Ruffy doesn’t knock Green out or spread power out over multiple rounds, I think Green is the better point scoring striker. Green also has the better cardio and has way more experience than Ruffy. This is arguably the best striker Ruffy has fought so this is a step up in competition. So I really think Green has a chance for the upset here. Be careful with Ruffy in your parlays as this line clearly seems off to me.
I still think Ruffy will have success early, so betting Green live may be the way to go. Green could get knocked out early and playing him live could be a way to avoid Ruffy’s early knockout path to victory. I expect Green to give Ruffy issues if this fight extends in any way. I still am leaning towards Ruffy’s power showing up in some way and giving green issues early, so I will pick Ruffy to win.
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On DraftKings, Ruffy will be a KO or bust option at 9.4k and it will be interesting to see how aggressively the public pays up for him.
I am not super high on Ruffy myself, to the point that I picked him to lose as a -1000 favorite last time out. He won, but barely, and then they cut Llontop which is a bit concerning if you’re a Ruffy fan.
Ultimately the guy has single shot power, but he was exhausted in a fight he was clearly controlling where he only landed 67 significant strikes, and he lost the third round easily. He seems like the type who wants and needs a pretty fight, where he’s in control. In a dog fight that’s up-pace, Ruffy is likely going to struggle.
To me, clearly, Green is a live underdog if he can survive the early shots. He’s a very skilled boxer and he fights at a very high pace. He outboxed Haqparast 188 to 76 a couple of years ago as one example. There is zero chance Ruffy can keep up that kind of pace.
However, Green is also aging, and he’s also notorious for keeping his hands down in order to showboat and confuse opponents. It won’t matter if Ruffy misses, but I do actually worry a lot that Ruffy is going to catch him. It’s simply not ideal to defend strikes in that way, and it’s caught up with Green who’s been knocked out a couple times in recent years as well.
So I do think Ruffy has knockout upside, and that upside probably does come early in the fight while he’s fresh. He is -180 to win ITD which is shockingly high, and does show decent finishing equity. He scored 110 in a first-round KO in his UFC debut. He also scored only 69 points with a knockdown in his most recent decision, which should explain his boom or bust nature.
Capping his actual chances of a RD 1 KO is difficult, but if you want to pay up to Ruffy, he’s viable. When I have the salary available, I will consider Ruffy and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him score well. There aren’t many exciting pivots for me so by default I may end up with a bit more exposure to Ruffy than I would want from a matchup analysis standpoint.
But he has a very thin path to a ceiling in my opinion and even if he does win by early KO and scores 110, I still don’t think he’s a guarantee to be optimal. That makes me very nervous from a fantasy perspective and would overall make me lean against playing him at a high rate if he’s chalk.
Green at 6.8k interests me a little bit. I think he’s being way undervalued from a win equity standpoint, but it’s also not an easy matchup.
Additionally, I don’t think Green has the same volume upside here as he might in other matchups as Ruffy won’t fully engage, and can be hard to hit. Llonttop landed 90 sig. strikes on him but that would only equate to a ~70 point score in a decision.
Green could wrestle, but I doubt he has much equity in this spot and he’s only +625 to win ITD. Perhaps he could win by TKO if he truly swarms Ruffy late, but that’s tough to predict.
I like Green a little bit as a pure punt who could win in a high paced fight, but I don’t think he has an extremely easy matchup nor an easy path to a ceiling. So ultimately there are many other underdogs on this slate who it makes sense to prioritize.
If you need a pure punt, or want to chase a stars/scrubs lineup which actually feel OK on this slate, I don’t mind a sprinkle of Green and I’m hopeful he can survive early and make this competitive.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ruffy by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Fight Odds: Blaydes -324, Kuniev +260
Odds to end ITD: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Blaydes 9.1k, Kuniev 7.1k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Curits Blaydes is entering his 10th year on the roster and is looking to rebound off an interim title loss to Tom Aspinall back in July – he’s 13-5 in the UFC and 18-5 as a pro. Rizvan Kuniev’s a two-time Contender Series alum who didn’t earn a contract back in 2021 despite a winning effort, but was able to secure one with a 1st round finish back in August. He’ll be making his UFC debut on Saturday and is 13-2-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Blaydes is a wrestler by base but has always had underrated striking.
Even with a lot of wrestling in his fights, he still lands 3.5 SLpM at 50% which is right around the divisional average. So, he’s not a pace machine standing but has tight straight shots, complemented with nasty elbows.
Defensively, he’s generally been decent exchange to exchange, only absorbing 1.9 SApM at 58%. However, he’s been buzzed a handful of times now.
There was some hesitancy in the Lewis fight as he shot from way too far out and got KO’d with an upper cut as a result. He was technically finished twice by Ngannou but once was via doctor stoppage. Pavlovich obviously iced him, but Blaydes had some clean connections in there prior to the KO and he was recently put down early by Aspinall.
So, while Blaydes’ durability is somewhat concerning, he’s only been stopped by four of the hardest hitters in the division.
His distance strike ratio isn’t great though but positive nonetheless at +0.2/minute. But he defends distance strikes at 63% which is also sound for a base wrestler.
He stood and struck with Rozenstruik much more than he needed to in that fight but nonetheless, only ate 18 strikes over nine minutes at distance with a pretty big hitter.
Ultimately, I don’t think Blaydes gets enough credit for his striking, but he’s obviously going to run into issues against faster, more explosive parties.
Kuniev comes from a wushu-sanda background where he’s won multiple world championships in the discipline. You can see the sanda in his game a bit as despite being a burly heavyweight, he’s relatively light on his feet and will look to dart in and out of the pocket. Although, he’s relatively linear in his approach where you don’t see much lateral movement from him.
But given the game he plays, he’s not a particularly high volume striker minute to minute and is more so looking to explode into his opponents with overhands, knees and kicks.
Six of his 12 pro wins have come via KO/TKO but he’s not a huge hitter by heavyweight standards, with most of them coming on the ground.
Defensively, he hasn’t faced a ton of volume back his way but opponents have had flurrying pockets of success on him, most notably in his first DWCS fight and against Ferreira in the PFL.
His head does stay on the center line in the pocket so he’s a guy that’s probably due to get put down one of these days, but he appears durable as are most of the Dagestani fighters, and has never been finished in his pro career.
Overall, I’d like a bigger sample of Kuniev at space but he’s a decent striker by heavyweight standards.
How it plays out: Luckily for Blaydes, he’s not getting a murderous power puncher here in Kuniev. But I still think Kuniev is a capable distance striker and Blaydes isn’t exactly a pace machine, so I’d assume exchanges will be competitive. I do prefer the straighter shots of Blaydes in comparison to all the looping stuff from Kuniev.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Blaydes comes from a collegiate wrestling background and has been one of the better wrestlers in the division’s history.
He lands 5.7 TDs per 15 minutes and gets them at 53% — you’re probably not going to see better wrestling metrics than that, especially over a 10 year sample size.
But what needs to be noted in the ability to land that many TDs is that Blaydes has struggled with ground control at times. However, he stays on guys and is a blanket that is very hard to get off of, even against the fence.
But a really telling stat to display the caliber of wrestler that Blaydes is that he’s out controlling his opponents at a 10:1 ratio which is also over half of his overall UFC fight time. Also, when he decides to open up in the guard, he’s got some nasty GNP.
The knock on Blaydes here is that he really doesn’t possess any submission acumen or significant passing ability outside of working to half guard. With that, he can be “lay and pray” at times.
Defensively, we haven’t had much to go on over the years with Blaydes outside of a couple fights years ago.
But in his fight against Almeida, he got absolutely ragdolled, getting taken down nine times on 13 attempts and controlled for essentially the entire 1st round. Blaydes was able to get him out early in the 2nd though with elbows against the fence. Almeida’s also one of the better floor players in the division so losing ground exchanges at face value wasn’t the worst look, it’s more so how he got tossed around that I found alarming. Blaydes made him work though and all that energy Almeida expended gassed him out.
Overall though, Blaydes is solid on the ground and a tough style matchup for 99% of the division. His gun-shy nature against Lewis and Pavlovich ultimately getting him killed was concerning though.
I’m unsure of Kuniev’s floor credentials but sanda is a martial art that encompasses grappling and being from Dagestan, I’d assume he’s got some sambo experience as well. He’s generally found wrestling success in most of his fights.
I’ve seen him chain attacks together well at times, but also struggle to secure in others where multiple fights of his have turned cage pushy where he’s just holding his opponent against the fence not doing much.
On the ground, his control has generally been good and has looked to open up with ground strikes in certain spots, but has been more lay and pray in others – it’s also under the context that he’s generally fought poor wrestlers though.
However, I have seen him get swept twice but he’s been able to either get back on top or look to re-wrestle back up.
He only has three submission wins with the last one coming back in 2022 with a standing guillotine, so he doesn’t appear to be a very adept submission grappler.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much but has stuffed the handful of attempts that have come his way – as noted, he’s worked up off his back quickly in the instances we’ve seen him on the bottom.
Overall, Kuniev isn’t a “powerhouse” wrestler but an above average one by heavyweight standards who I’d project to realize ground success in the UFC depending on the opponent.
How it plays out: The floor is somewhat difficult to analyze just because we don’t have a large sample of either having to defensively wrestle. The Almeida fight is obviously concerning for Blaydes but Blaydes is objectively the best wrestler that Kuniev’s fought by a country mile. I don’t think Kuniev has the cardio to outwrestle Blaydes over an extended period of time under resistance and based on pure meritocracy, I’d favor Blaydes to get the better of the overall exchanges.
Kuniev seems like a decent heavyweight to me but he’s getting a gigantic step up in competition here against a perennial top 10 guy in Blaydes. Kuniev’s beating a bunch of bums in Russia and then two Brazilian guys on DWCS who he was a huge favorite over. Ferreira was a good win in PFL but Ferreira also can’t wrestle and Kuniev popped for steroids. It was pretty clear he was on something in that fight too because his body transformation was insane where he’s looked legitimately fat in every other fight – he was fat again on DWCS in August. It’s kind of a weird matchup to analyze stylistically but Blaydes should be the better guy.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think this is a simple fight to analyze and I’m pretty nervous about targeting both sides.
For starters, I do not think Blaydes should be a near -300 favorite and I think Kuniev is pretty live to win. Luke analyzed the matchup well but ultimately, Kuniev has tools to compete with Blaydes at distance where Blaydes rates out a bit better technically, but much worse from a durability sense.
The pure wrestling may also go to Blaydes but he isn’t a lock to even attempt takedowns, and I’m pretty skeptical that he can easily hold Kuniev down. Kuniev may also find pockets of wrestling success but I don’t think he can control Blaydes either.
So Blaydes is priced up to 9.1k here and I’m leaning toward being light on him this week.
I’ve been quite heavy on Blaydes in the past and I love to target him when he can dominate the wrestling exchanges. When that happens, his ceiling is tremendous and we’ve seen him smash on DK as a result, with wins of 134, 135 and 173.
It would be reasonable to include Blaydes in your portfolio simply based on the idea that wrestling is a possibility. With so many boom or bust options in this range, Blaydes at least has paths to a ceiling that others may not.
However, Blaydes has only taken down one of his past seven opponents.. He is simply not wrestling at a high rate, and even if he does here, I don’t think it’s a guarantee he can find success. Without wrestling, what are you betting on? For Blaydes to win by knockout?
Sure, that’s possible too, but Blaydes has been brutally KOd several times while Kuniev has never been knocked out. There’s still some upside there but it feels very boom or bust, and Blaydes isn’t a fighter I believe is trustworthy given his durability and Fight IQ.
He still rates out OK here with a +105 ITD line. If in theory he is the better boxer, he can land and maybe hurt Kuniev. I’m not ruling that outcome out. Blaydes also only has one knockdown in his last 14 fights, so again, how likely is it exactly?
I don’t love the top range this week so Blaydes is in play by default, but I do think others have more realistic paths to early KOs based on the data we have, and I’d rather put the majority of my investments elsewhere.
Kuniev at 7.1k looks like a sneaky underdog target to me though not one I will load up on.
The reason I won’t load up is because I don’t think Kuniev has an easy path to domination on the mat, nor on the feet. He’s not a high volume striker or wrestler and Blaydes is pretty good in all areas.
I still think there’s a reasonable chance the fight is competitive. Kuniev can land a takedown or two, and I think he has sneaky knockout upside. Blaydes does not react to shots well and he’s been knocked out a bunch of times. Yes, by big hitters, but I’m not sure it matters over the long run if your body simply doesn’t hold up.
Kuniev is only +350 to win ITD which is probably fair. I don’t think he’s a real KO artist and I’m not going to pick him to win ITD. This might just be an ugly, slow fight with a lot of cage pushing. So you don’t need to prioritize Kuniev.
But this is HW and they might box. In that situation, I’d want some exposure to Kuniev who I do think can hurt Blaydes. I highly doubt he’ll be popular so he also works as a salary saver and semi-contrarian target in this bottom end.
There’s a lot of variance at HW and there’s no reason to love Kuniev, but I think he’s a bit undervalued and a bit sneaky based on the weaknesses Blaydes has shown historically, and I don’t mind some low-end shares personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blaydes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya
Fight Odds: Van -181, Tsuruya +155
Odds to end ITD: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Van 8.8k, Tsuruya 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have really enjoyed watching the rise of Joshua Van. He is now 5-1 in the UFC with his one loss being a 3rd round knockout loss to Charles Johnson. He is now in a fascinating matchup against Rei Tsuruya. I am very excited for this fight.
Van is a great pace fighter. I like the dosage of strikes by Van. He is a volume striker and will strike with a very high pace for 15 straight minutes. He lands 8.88 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.82 in return, and defends strikes at 60 percent. Van is overall just a pretty skilled striker. He mixes up kicks with his boxing and he works the body well with his hands. He can have success at range in this division.
Van also seems pretty durable. He was knocked out by Charles Johnson, but I have never really seen him hurt other than that. Him getting knocked out there does make me a bit nervous, but I generally think Van is a tough guy. I just feel like when you fight with the pace that Van does, you will get knocked out randomly from time to time.
I have also seen Van mix in takedowns here and there. He isn’t a good offensive wrestler, but he honestly isn’t bad and he can get good positions on the mat after tiring his opponents.
Van’s defensive grappling looked like an issue early in his career. He lost a little over three years ago on the regionals. He was generally outwrestled and then submitted by a RNC in the third round.
Van was only 20 years old in that fight and he has clearly improved though. He still was mounted at one point vs Felipe Bunes and surrendered two takedowns in that fight. Bunes just gassed out clearly.
Van also recently stopped the wrestling of Cody Durden. Van did allow a few takedowns and was held down early but Durden then gassed out. However, Van honestly did a pretty good job defending the takedowns that he needed to defend.
Van will be taking on Rei Tsuruya. Tsuruya is a Japanese fighter who is 10-0 professionally. He is only 22 years old and comes from a legitimate wrestling background. He was a junior Olympian and competed at the junior world championships.
Tsuruya won the Road to UFC tournament and then made his UFC debut against Carlos Hernandez in June of last year where he won a hard fought decision.
As you would expect, Tsuruya is a grappler and a good one. I do like his wrestling and he chains attacks well. I like his takedowns too. He is creative on the mat, and can pass and get the back with body triangles and threaten with twister positions. He also can ride the back too. He is a well-rounded grappler.
I honestly was impressed with Tsuruya’s tape. I absolutely think he can wreck people on the mat in the UFC. His striking is a liability and he doesn’t even look interested in striking but he just looks to wrestle anyway.
I think many may look at the Tsuruya vs. Hernandez fight and maybe think less of Tsuruya because it was a more competitive fight than the betting line indicated. However, I actually love Hernandez’s defensive grappling. I think Hernandez is almost like a Cristian Rodriguez where he may not be great in offensive areas but he is a true pain in the ass to wrestle and hold down.
So Tsuruya landing three takedowns and obtaining a decent amount of control against Hernandez honestly impressed me more than it is going to impress others. I am guessing a lot of betting podcasts this week will point to that fight as to why Van will beat Tsuruya this weekend but I kind of disagree. I thought the Tsuruya/Hernandez performance was actually a positive one.
I kept going back and forth here. Van’s defensive grappling looked pretty good against Durden, but Durden gassed heavily.
I don’t know man. I rate Tsuruya’s grappling much higher than Durden’s. I absolutely think Tsuruya can take Van down, especially early and he may even get some dominant positions and threaten with a finish. I sneakily think Tsuruya could finish Van early. I expect the dominant positions to actually come for Tsuruya and I am somewhat confident he will do very well for a while.
Tsuruya does seem to have decent cardio too and can functionally wrestle for three rounds. I do worry about Tsuruya later in this fight though and Van very well may melt Tsuruya, as Tsuruya faced some adversity in round three against Hernandez and against Mark Climaco. Van just brings a different type of pressure and it may be too much for Tsuruya.
I was going into tape really thinking I would like Van, and I do think if he just extends this fight, he could just pour it on Tsuruya late and beat the breaks off of him on the feet. Van is exponentially better as a striker and Tsuruya doesn’t even seem interested in striking. He really stands no chance on the feet against Van later in this fight.
However, I actually think Tsuruya is going to give Van issues for a while and I am not confident in Van at all here. I am actually going to pick Tsuruya. I do think I could look very dumb here though and I am not confident at all. I mean whoever wins this fight is probably going to win dominantly as this is a binary matchup ,so whoever is on the other side will look like a square. I will pick Tsuruya just to signal to Van bettors reading this that I would be cautious as I think Van is going to struggle early. Van live may be the better option.
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On DraftKings, I have pretty mixed feelings and I have to admit that I also was much more excited about Van pre-tape, and have largely pulled back after thinking about it some more.
The dynamic is interesting because Van will murder Tsuruya on the feet, and I don’t really see it being competitive at all. If at any time Van has Tsuruya backed up along the cage, Van will just pour on the combinations and probably get the stoppage.
The problem is that for that to occur, he’ll have already needed to defend the takedowns. Tsuruya has that Japanese in and out style where he’s so far out of range on the feet, or he’s in tight and clinching. So Van isn’t going to be able to just knock him out standing immediately and he probably will need to chase Tsuruya around for a while.
Plus, Tsuruya is a really legit submission grappler in a different way than Bunes or Durden or anyone else is that Van has ever competed against. Tsuruya is attacking twisters and leg locks. Is Van super competent from the truck positions? I literally have no idea because I doubt he’s ever been put there.
Van also tends to give up takedowns early and given Tsuruya’s junior Olympic pedigree, it makes sense that Tsuruya will have some success to start the fight. I think it’s pretty possible that he ties Van up in something that Van doesn’t understand and makes him tap.
I really want to be on Van and I think he has upside here, enough that I still play him, but this isn’t the ideal matchup. I worry greatly that he won’t be able to land many total strikes as Tsuruya will evade, or that he will be held down and tied up early. It’s going to limit his potential overall and I think he’ll need a mid-round swarm and TKO stoppage to really pay off at 8.8k.
I’m still open to the idea that he can. I am really high on Van now as a prospect and I really want to bet on him in stand-up exchanges. He will need to prove his grappling here though to the point which I haven’t seen, and I am worried. But if he can do that early, Tsuruya won’t have any other options which means we may see Van tee off on him.
Van is +215 to win ITD which is OK. We’ve seen him score big even in decisions before, against both Borjas, Chairez and Durden. But he’s landing 100-170 sig. strikes in those matchups, and he’s landing takedowns. I would be shocked to see him reach volume numbers like that here, or wrestle at all.
So there’s really a major question in mind as to how Van pays off, and I don’t think he’s an obvious priority. With elite box scores in recent wins, I do think Van will be popular and again I understand it because the kid is sick on the feet. And he has a path to winning and to winning ITD.
But he has major downside risk against a fighter like Tsuruya, who will limit his strikes, tie him up and extend the fight. I consider Van a solid secondary target and given the binary dynamic and the striking/cardio concerns with Tsuruya, Van is still a good target and someone who I will want an investment in. But he’s only a secondary target due to the major downside risk and defensive grappling/fight pacing concerns.
Tsuruya is one of the more obvious underdogs on the slate at 7.4k and I would expect him to be popular as well. Even if he was a true dog in this matchup, his path to victory in any fight is dependent on takedowns, control and likely a submission, which should score well on most slates.
He’s coming off a weak performance against Hernandez where he only scored 72, but he also nearly pulled off a submission a couple of times, so we could have seen a score much larger. Plus, Van is likely going to pressure him and force him to grapple, so I think for Tsuruya to win, he’ll need lots of success on the mat and probably more than he had against Hernandez.
Tsuruya is only +425 to win ITD here but I think he can do it. I don’t mind his sub prop at +800 as it seems like one of the more likely outcomes in the fight outright. He could also win a decision but that’s betting on him having full grappling success while also betting on Van being able to defend well, which seems kind of counterintuitive to me.
I don’t think Tsuruya is a must play, and he may be popular. He could just lose the scrambles early and get outstruck, and lose. There are other strong dogs on this slate.
But I love the binary dynamic here and given Tsuruya’s grappling pedigree, it’s quite possible he looks like the favorite in hindsight. At 7.4k I’m absolutely willing to take chances on him and I consider him a very strong secondary option with both win equity and a path to a ceiling for this price tag.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tsuruya by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan
Fight Odds: Petrosyan -139, Ferreira +121
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Petrosyan 8.6k, Ferreira 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off a showcase loss to Shara Magomedov, Armen Petrosyan will be looking to bounce back against Brunno Ferreira this weekend in what should be an entertaining affair.
Petrosyan is basically a kickboxer. I consider him a skilled one actually. He has some good striking oriented wins in the UFC against Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues. He lands 5.95 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.36 in return. He is a pretty good striker and has a nice mix of kicks and punches. He controls range very well and defends strikes at 53 percent.
I overall really respect Petrosyan as a striker. He outlanded Rodrigues 127-61 in significant strikes at distance and outlanded Christian Leroy Duncan 89-59 in significant strikes at distance. Those are very good box scores against two solid opponents.
Petrosyan is also mildly powerful and has several knockouts in his career. I consider him capable of knockouts at this level. I also think his cardio is pretty strong. He can fight for a hard 15 minutes.
Petrosyan has been rocked though. He was actually knocked out in round one on the regionals and Gregory Rodrigues hurt him a couple of times as well. He was then knocked out by Shara Magomedov. These are really dangerous guys though so I don’t know where his durability truly is. It just seems average to me. I wouldn’t consider it a strength but I don’t consider it a major liability either.
We have also seen Petrosyan outgrappled in the UFC and that will be an issue for him going forward in general. The grapplers who have taken advantage of him have been elite. However, I still don’t like that he defends takedowns at 31 percent in general. Decent grapplers can beat him. He did survive Rodrigues though which was impressive.
Petrosyan will be taking on Brunno Ferreira who is a brute. On the regionals, Ferreira simply overpowered all of his opponents either on the feet or on the mat and finished them quickly. He then knocked out his opponent on the Contender Series, and then knocked out Gregory Rodrigues in his UFC debut.
Since then, Ferreira has finished Dustin Stoltzfus and Phil Hawes early. However, he was knocked dead against Nursulton Ruziboev and lost an extended fight in his most recent matchup against Abus Magomedov.
Ferreira is simply a dangerous guy early in fights and is capable of hurting anyone. He has knocked several guys dead and even in his loss against Magomedov, he hurt Magomedov badly as well.
Other than that though, I don’t think Ferreira’s striking is great in an extended fight. He doesn’t throw a ton of volume and isn’t super skilled. He is powerful though.
I also think Ferreira has a little offensive wrestling and BJJ in his game. He had success on the regionals with it and even took down Phil Hawes and advanced to side control which kind of surprised me. I still don’t think Ferreira will outwrestle many guys in an extended fight though. He literally hasn’t landed a single takedown in any other UFC fight. If Ferreira has wrestling success, it would probably have to come early based on explosive moments. I don’t think he is actually all that skilled or economical with his grappling.
Ferreira’s defensive grappling looked pretty poor against Abus Magomedov. He got taken down four times and eventually got submitted.
Ferreira also isn’t a guy I trust in extended fights. I haven’t seen him tested late in fights often. He wasn’t super fatigued against Magomedov in the third round but he isn’t a guy to win minutes of striking exchanges for 15 minutes.
Furthermore, Ferreira was knocked dead against Ruziboev which was kind of a bad look. So maybe he has durability issues as well.
Overall, Ferreira just looks like a volatile fighter. I think he can knock guys dead but if that doesn’t happen, I don’t have a ton of faith in him winning. I do think he potentially is more than a first round KO guy though. He may carry power beyond the first round. He was coming forward against Magomedov late and forced Magomedov to wrestle him. So it wasn’t like Ferreira was unable to threaten with power later in that fight.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going with Petrosyan as he is a superior striker in an extended fight. If Ferreira’s power does not show up, I think Petrosyan will just cleanly outland him and either win a clean decision or maybe even hurt Ferreira.
I still do think Ferreira can hurt Petrosyan. I do respect Ferreira’s power and Petrosyan is not the most durable guy in the world. Ferreira could also maybe have some grappling success although I am skeptical he can pull that off later in this fight and it will probably have to come early. I still do think Ferreira has some ways to win though.
I still almost always lean towards the superior fighter in an extended fight though unless the early KO is just a seemingly insanely high percentage outcome (like Shahbazyan against Budka a few weeks back). So I will pick Petrosyan to get this done. This could be another live betting opportunity on Petrosyan though to avoid the early finish path to victory of Ferreira.
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On DraftKings, I’m pretty high on this fight and it’s actually among my favorites on the entire slate.
I’m also much higher on the Petrosyan side than I am on the Ferreira side. Ferreira has only won outside of round one twice, and those came 12 seconds into round two, and one minute into round two. He’s just not a guy who can throw at a high volume because he’s more focused on power, and it’s the same reason why his wrestling won’t carry into the latter rounds either.
He’s also super small for this division which will absolutely catch up to him (and it already has). He is 5’10” at middleweight which is just too small, and Petrosyan is 6’3” so he should tower over him, even though officially Ferreira has a one-inch longer reach.
I just don’t see any way Ferreira wins this fight unless it’s an early KO. Sure, maybe that could come in RD 2 but RD 1 is the most likely outcome, and I think he has extremely minimal decision equity. Petrosyan throws strikes at a much higher volume, he’s much more technical and his cardio is much better. He’s an easy pick for me.
Essentially, I think Ferreira knocks Petrosyan out quickly or he probably gets knocked out himself. There’s a chance the fight extends and Petrosyan wins a striking based decision too but if he’s landing 100+ sig. strikes, I am highly skeptical that Ferreira can survive that.
Ferreira I think may be the more popular target at 7.6k and he could be among the more popular underdogs on the slate. He has wins of 109, 117 and 111 in the UFC and if he wins here, it’s probably in that range as well. He is +145 to win ITD which is insane for a +121 underdog. He’ll have the best ITD line of any dog and among the best on the slate overall.
Plus, Petrosyan just got knocked out. And variance exists in striking exchanges. An early KO is definitely possible for Ferreira and I don’t want to dismiss that outcome. The safest choice here is just to use him near the field percentage and not sweat it too much.
Personally, I’ll be underweight but maybe not greatly. I will still use him as a secondary target but I’d much rather play some lower owned dogs who I think can also win, especially as I don’t love Ferreira in this matchup. He has enough upside to warrant secondary or more exposure in your portfolio though, despite my fight analysis, given his line value and ceiling.
Petrosyan at 8.6k is more risky because if he lands 100 sig. strikes in a decision, that’s only going to score 70 points in a win and bust. We’ve seen him 81 and 77 and 81 in his decisions in the UFC. He has not yet won ITD which is a concern, and he’s only +200 to win ITD here.
With that said, you don’t have to play him. I’ve made the case against a lot of big favorites on this slate and you can make the same case here, as there’s legitimate bust risk in an extended fight.
I still want to bet on the ITD potential myself in this matchup. These guys should be trading and landing, and Ferreira has literally never seen a decision, win or lose. He’s been knocked out cold once already and Petrosyan lands strikes at a high volume.
I don’t know if Petrosyan will KO him cold quickly but I do think a mid-round KO is very possible as Ferreira slows down, and especially if Petrosyan is low owned and leverage against Ferreria, I am happy to be on him as at least a secondary play, and overweight to the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petrosyan by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal
Fight Odds: Leal -853, Morono +566
Odds to end ITD: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Leal 9.6k, Morono 6.6k
Weight Class: 170
We’ll get an awkward boxing match here between UFC veteran Alex Morono and Carlos Leal.
Leal is coming off a very solid performance against Rinat Fakhretdinov in his UFC debut last October, losing a competitive decision in which he largely stuffed the takedowns and beat up the legs of his opponent.
Leal is now 21-6 professionally at age 30, and he’s earned 10 wins by knockout and two by submission.
I would say his primary skill set is boxing, where he will pressure and throw some power shots. Otherwise, I don’t consider there to be a ton of depth in Leal’s game.
He’s competed against decent competition on the regionals and is pretty much a journeyman, having fought Sabidou Sy multiple times in PFL, Ray Cooper, David Zawada and others.
But in terms of technique, I don’t consider Leal a specialist. Leal stands kind of square so he’s open to be hit. He kind of lunges forward and he’s pretty dangerous in the pocket. At range he can kick a little bit, and he showed some devastating leg kicks against Fakhretdinov last time out.
I just don’t think Leal is a stand out in terms of volume, and outside of big shots, I don’t think he will clearly be winning rounds. I’ve seen him wrestle a tiny bit but that’s not his primary path to victory.
It was impressive to see his defensive wrestling hold up against Fakhretdinov, which was the major concern last time out. We had also seen Leal sprawling and pummeling well against Cooper in PFL, and when he was taken down he scrambled up well too.
In his debut, Leal defended 17/19 takedowns and was able to avoid all meaningful control throughout the fight. He beat up the legs of Fakhretdinov early and landed 107 significant strikes in total.
Unfortunately, he allowed Fakhretdinov back in the fight late, who also landed 109 significant strikes of his own, including 52 in the third round. It’s not a great sign for someone who’s a primary wrestler and I do have concerns about Leal’s hitability moving forward.
For now, I’ll just consider Leal a competent boxer who can also kick some. He has some power in his hands, and his volume is fine. I don’t love his defensive technique though and I expect him to get hit a lot in return. Fortunately, he’s never been knocked out in his 27-fight career which probably comes in handy here against Morono.
Alex Morono is a UFC veteran of 22 fights, though he’s now 34 years old and probably on the latter end of his promotional career.
He’s always been an awkward fighter, and he doesn’t stand out in any one area of the game.
For example, Morono is a BJJ black belt with decent submission skills, but he’s not a great athlete and he doesn’t wrestle. He only lands 0.34 takedowns per 15 minutes so it’s really not a path to victory for him, and his submission game only comes into play in opportunistic exchanges or when it’s used defensively. He’s picked up a couple of guillotine chokes along the way but that’s it.
Otherwise, Morono is a solid boxer. He has reasonable volume and he’s reasonably technical. He lands 4.96 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.56 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. We’ve seen him top out at 176, 111, 106, 98 and 96 significant strikes in fights before.
Unfortunately for Morono, he’s on the wrong end of the power versus durability spectrum. He’s been absolutely deaded a few times, though he’s shockingly only been knocked down three times in the UFC.
He just doesn’t carry much power of his own, and he only has five knockdowns landed himself. Funny enough, two of Morono’s knockdowns have come in fights where he was also knocked down.
So of his 13 UFC wins, two have come by guillotine, two have come by TKO and the other nine have come by decision. Largely, Morono is just in competitive boxing fights.
To his credit, he’s had a long career and one that’s been semi-successful given his relatively weak skill set. He hasn’t had much success recently, but he’s lost to some solid names in Daniel Rodriguez (split), Niko Price, Joaquin Buckley and Santiago Ponzinibbio, so his level of competition has been strong.
I don’t really ever trust Morono and I don’t see a reason to trust him here, but I can’t really understand why Leal is a massive favorite. The only real advantage I see for Leal, which could be a big one, is that he seems tough and durable while Morono can occasionally just die in fights.
For that reason alone, it’s fair to lean moderately toward Leal for knockout equity. However, Morono has still only been knocked down three times in 22 fights and he hasn’t been knocked down in any of his last five fights.
Leal stands way too square for my liking and he’s hittable, and I think it’s pretty fair to project a competitive fight here. I think Morono probably has the better technique of the two and he’s probably the smarter fighter outright.
The athletic advantages should lie in favor of Leal though, so he has more breakaway upside and he might be able to hurt the legs as well. Morono just might not be able to mount enough offense and probably only wins a tight decision if he wins at all.
I’m going to lean toward Leal for those reasons but I can easily see Morono winning a round and making this competitive, as long as his chin holds up.
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On DraftKings, Leal is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k and it may be tough to pay up for him with any consistency.
Even if Leal had been awarded the decision last time out with 100+ sig. strikes and a takedown, he would have only scored 86 points in the decision win. I don’t see much more volume upside than that, nor do I see much more wrestling equity.
The real upside for Leal lies in a dominating KO victory, which is possible, and it could come early. I’m still not even sure that would be enough at 9.6k though.
Leal is -145 to win ITD which is pretty solid, and again, I do think he can hurt Morono. If he can land 25-30 sig. strikes and score a first-round KO, Leal would put up a very strong 110-115 type of score. I have to ask again whether that would be enough to stand out as optimal at 9.6k though?
So, sure, if I can afford to pay up to Leal, I will consider him. He has some KO upside. There are a lot of hit or miss fighters in the 8k and 9k range, to the point that I barely like anyone. Considering that fact, perhaps it actually is better to target all the way up the board for the best ITD equity on paper. It may be worth intentionally building some stars and scrubs lineups and I’d be happy to mix in a bit of Leal in that case.
But I largely consider him boom or bust, with a ceiling dependent on a round one KO which still might not see him optimal. At 9.6k, he’s simply too expensive in this kind of matchup for me to pay up with any priority, and he’s only really benefited by the fact that the rest of this top tier is also extremely boom or bust as well.
Morono is priced at 6.6k and although I think he could win the fight, I’m not super high on him from a fantasy perspective.
Morono has scored 46, 85, 76, 79, and 69 points in his most recent wins. He doesn’t really wrestle and I don’t think this is the matchup where he’d excel on the mat. His finishing equity is limited and he’ll rate out super poorly here with a +900 ITD line. Leal has never been KOd.
I do think Morono is being undervalued from a win equity stand point and potentially severely so. Perhaps that’s enough to not fade him outright in large fields, but I really question his fantasy ceiling anyway and so it doesn’t really feel worth it to take the risk. I may rather put my $ on him to win at +550 than play him on DK with any consistency (and I’m not saying I will make that bet).
Ultimately, Morono is a fine boxer and he can probably box his way to a competitive, extended affair, but there are other underdogs with real paths to ceilings on this slate and I have to prioritize them. He’s simply a low-end dart throw at this price and not one I’ll play much or any of with a limited portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Leal by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall
Fight Odds: Santos -311, Marshall +252
Odds to end ITD: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 9.2k, Marshall 7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Mairon Santos is a two-fight LFA alum who competed on this past season of The Ultimate Fighter. He made his official UFC debut back in August, winning the finale with a big knockout over Kaan Ofli – he’s 14-1 as a pro. Francis Marshall’s a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season whose job was on the line back in August, where he came through with a win over Dennis Buzukja which extended his UFC stay – he’s 2-2 in the promotion and 8-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Santos comes from a muay thai background and is a lankier guy at 145 lbs. standing 5’9” with a 72” reach.
His volume is on the lower end of the spectrum as he falls more into a tactician type of role. Despite his lower volume nature, his style has still been conducive for him to dictate the large bulk of exchanges in his fights to date where he is besting his opponents on the feet.
He has eight KOs of his 14 pro wins but the bulk of them came earlier on in his career and against a lesser level of competition – he’s coming off a huge counter shot KO in his debut against Ofli though – I still don’t think he’s a “raw power” guy though.
But he uses his length well within the mid-range, chops opponents’ legs down with kicks, fires out straight shots and has some slip/pull counters within his game.
He also generally keeps a higher guard as do most traditional thai fighters, so he’s also able to block a lot of shots when opponents come at him if not getting off the center line – although he’s gotten tagged a few times.
Overall, I’m not the biggest fan of Santos’ style just because it can lead to tighter margins if he’s not finishing potentially, but he’s also a guy that’s just difficult to get off on or produce meaningful amounts of offense against, so he’s made it work well for him – similar to a guy in William Gomis to a degree – a frustrating style to fight against.
Marshall comes from a wrestling background, but we’ve seen a decent amount of stand up from him in his last five fights to make some assessment where he has “wrestle/boxer” striking tendencies.
He’s not a flashy guy per say but throws in basic combinations well and has shown to keep a consistent work rate.
In his fight on DWCS, he out landed his opponent 101 to 74 at distance and was able to briefly hurt him as well.
Granted, he was fighting a BJJ guy so there are two sides to that coin – the positive being the volume he did land and was winning the striking exchanges – the negative being he got hit 74 times by a non-base striker.
One of things I was able to pick up as well is that he tends to move back in straight lines in the rare times he’s been effectively pressured – not a good characteristic to have.
In his debut, the stand up was competitive against Rojo but he was able to hurt Rojo on multiple occasions and eventually put him down – pretty impressive considering Rojo was the best pure striker he had fought to date.
He really struggled with the length and range game of Gomis but that’s been par for the course for the majority of guys Gomis has fought – he just doesn’t really engage. So, despite the box score not looking very encouraging, it’s forgivable as hindsight is 20/20.
Him landing a knockdown in round two of the last fight against Buzukja loomed large in the scoring of that fight, but Marshall’s performance in totality was underwhelming. Buzukja’s really not great as a talent and he was going blow for blow with him, and actually outlanded Marshall 65-53 at distance.
Overall, Marshall’s stand up is better than I’ve given him credit for in the past but his defense is largely an afterthought – taking shots to give shots is only going to get you so far.
How it plays out: As I rounded out Santos’ part of the striking breakdown, I compared him to William Gomis to a degree which is interesting because Marshall fought Gomis and he didn’t do well on the feet – only landed 13 distance strikes in roughly 10 minutes of distance time. While Santos is lower volume, he’s far superior both technically and defensively where I struggle to see Marshall being able to get off much. With Marshall’s wrestle/boxer style, he stands heavier on the lead leg so I see Santos realizes a healthy amount of calf kicking success when this fight is at range. I largely think Marshall is drawing to bigger moments or a knockout to win on the feet here which he has been able to produce in a handful of fights, but Santos is one of the best defensive strikers Marshall has fought outside of Gomis.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Being a base striker, I haven’t really seen Santos look to pursue offensive wrestling at all outside of the occasional clinch exchange.
I’m unsure of his BJJ credentials as well but he has no pro wins or losses via submission. It’s been the wrestling against for Santos that has given him some issues in the past.
The main fight to hit on was his first and only pro loss against current UFC fighter Dan Argueta where he largely got mauled for the better part of 15 minutes before succumbing to GNP late in the fight.
In the defense of Santos, the fight was 2.5 years ago and it was down at 135 lbs. which isn’t his natural weight class – coupled with Argueta just being the most established talent he’s fought in his career.
But he nullified wrestling attacks well in his following fight against Barbosa.
On this past season of TUF, both of the opponents he fought in Cooper Jr and Torres were base wrestlers. He struggled with the early grind from Cooper Jr and dropped the first round but by and large shut his wrestling down throughout the rest of the fight, barring one other late TD in the 3rd.
He got taken down a couple times by Torres in the following bout but was able to work up quickly in all instances.
So, I think it’s pretty clear that Santos has made evolutions not only in his defensive wrestling but also in being able to nullify back takes – although he still does have a tendency to give the back – he’s just used knee shields far better.
But ultimately beating a guy like Cooper Jr is most impressive to me because he was one of the primary favorites to get to the finals of that season, and a guy I rate as a solid prospect.
Overall, Santos hasn’t shown any real offensive upside, so I’d still have to classify the ground as more of a con than a pro in his game as it’s ultimately how he’s dropped minutes and rounds so far in his career. But as noted, bigger evolutions have been made.
Marshall comes from a wrestling background and is a BJJ blue belt as of 2018 – some assumption that he’s probably leveled up in the last seven years, but I couldn’t verify that.
He’s also recently made the move down to American Top Team in Florida, so he now has some pretty solid bodies to work with in the likes of Mateusz Gamrot, Movsar Evloev and Grant Dawson to just name a few.
He’s shown some good entries to TDs primarily hitting single and double legs. I’ve seen him establish good amounts of control in certain outings and then not as much in others.
On the regionals, he was able to outwrestle/outgrapple bums but even in his fight against Trujillo (a regional journeyman who’s 24-30), Trujillo was still able to create space and work up on numerous occasions.
On DWCS, he went 6/10 on TDs accruing a little less than six minutes of control.
He went 1/3 against Rojo but was able to ride out the 1st round on top when he was able to secure – Rojo also grabbed the fence a handful of times as well. He also won the final round against Gomis via wrestling.
Most recently, he took the 1st via wrestling against Buzukja but got shut out, going 0-4 in the latter rounds.
BJJ wise, he’s shown a decent back take but once again, it just hasn’t been against a good level of competition.
Defensively, we don’t have much of a sample given that Marshall is usually profiling as the better wrestler in his matchups and is the one pursuing. However, he got absolutely dog walked on the ground by Dulgarian a few fights back and positionally TKO’d in the 1st round – Dulgarian’s a stud wrestler in fairness but Marshall looked relatively lost.
Overall, I want to see how he fairs in this department against better guys of a UFC level, but I’d assume the ground is where his primary successes will lie in terms of winning fights going forward.
How it plays out: This is where Marshall’s upside lies given the historics of both. But as noted, Santos has made some large evolutions in his defensive wrestling and get up game to where Marshall is going to struggle to land TDs generally but also keep Santos down should he land TDs, considering I’ve seen low level guys work up under Marshall as well. Marshall having no back end success against Buzukja is pretty alarming to me here. Nonetheless, he has the large bulk upside considering Santos doesn’t wrestle.
As noted, I’m not the biggest fan of Santos’ style but he’s proven to be effective/efficient in playing the game he does and is a proven winner – coupled with him being only 24 years old and training stateside now in Vegas so I’d anticipate continued improvement from the kid. Marshall’s also still a young guy at 25 who I’d anticipate improvement from as well but he’s got a tough matchup in front of him with Santos. I see Santos being able to shut down most of Marshall’s offense, get off on his own and win a semi-competitive but comfortable decision.
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On DraftKings, Santos is going to be many ultra boom or bust targets in the top end at 9.2k.
Luke noted that Santos isn’t a high volume guy and I agree, which is a major concern as far as boom/bust dynamics go. Santos won by KO in round two of his UFC debut but only landed 31 strikes and only scored 93 points. Given his lack of wrestling equity, it’s fair to reason that Santos probably needs a RD 1 KO to absolutely cement himself on the optimal.
However you can argue even with that, Santos would still need to hope others in this range fail a bit as a RD 1 KO could score him 110 or so and still leave him vulnerable if others in this range match that performance.
Also, Santos is only +165 to win ITD against an opponent in Marshall who has never been KOd standing. I actually do think he’s capable of it, because Santos will attack his legs and force Marshall to pressure. Similar to his last matchup, Santos can counter well and will have a chance to land some big, clean shots. But his window to hit a ceiling is pretty clearly thin and that makes me nervous.
These just aren’t the spots I like to attack, but I also hate the top range this week and consider pretty much everyone to be overvalued and/or boom/bust. So if you want to prioritize Santos and probably lower public ownership compared to a guy like Ruffy, I would say that’s OK.
I just do not expect to end up with much Santos and probably will be quite light on him overall. I think the others priced above him have more realistic shots at an early KO so I’d lean toward them if forced to choose. Santos is viable for pure upside and lower ownership but I just don’t love his path to a top-end ceiling.
Marshall at 7k is viable but not a fighter I love.
I do like Marshall a bit as a fighter and I’ve been high-ish on him in the past. Even as far as this matchup, he has some potential. He will likely need to wrestle and I think he could have some success, so there is a reasonable ceiling.
I don’t really trust him as a wrestler though and my expectation is that he’ll get shut down for the most part. Maybe he can land 1-2 takedowns. I also just don’t love Santos as a matchup for other purposes as Santos will be tough to hit on the feet and will counter him well.
So I don’t think there’s a strong floor here for Marshall. I don’t think he has much finishing equity at +650 ITD. I actually think both Green and Morono below him have better chances to win outright.
However Marshall does have some wrestling equity against an opponent in Santos who isn’t fully polished there. It’s at least a viable path if you need to save this much salary. I honestly think I prefer others in this range so I won’t end up with much Marshall myself, but sprinkling him in as a low-end target in a fight projected to go the distance, with some wrestling equity is fine.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda
Fight Odds: Gutierrez -119, Castaneda +104
Odds to end ITD: +240
DraftKings Salaries: Castaneda 8.2k, Gutierrez 8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
John Castaneda’s entering his 6th year on the roster where he’s been an up and down commodity over his promotional stay – he’s 4-3 in the UFC and 21-7 as a pro. Chris Gutierrez is entering his 8th year on the roster and has put together a pretty solid run, but has had some hiccups in recent years – he’s 9-3-1 in the UFC and 21-5-2 as a pro. This is an impromptu fight week booking but both guys have been in camp as their original matchups fell through (Andrade last week for Castaneda and Matsumoto was rebooked to fight Font a few weeks back for Gutierrez).
The striking component:
Castaneda’s a guy who’s grown on me over the years in terms of his striking. He primarily fights southpaw but will switch stances to where he’ll stay mobile in fights within the mid-range or from the outside.
His boxing is good and he has a nice supplemental kicking game to where he’ll target all three levels, to which he has hurt guys with kicks in multiple fights.
He lands 4.9 SLpM at 50% and 5.6 DLpM at 49%. Despite not being a perennial power threat throughout the bulk of his career, he does have knockdowns in four of his last six fights, so that does appear to be an aspect of his game that’s coming along.
In the UFC, he struggled with the volume and hand speed of Wood but no real shame as that was a tough debut to take on short notice. He outstruck Wineland and found the kill shot. Against Johns, the early minutes of the fight were competitive before Johns got tired under the pressure of Castaneda – Johns also didn’t really throw much.
He had Santos on the ropes early and was very aggressive in that spot but gassed himself trying to finish the tough Santos and ultimately got finished himself. I do think that fight was a bit uncharacteristic for Castaneda in the sense of cardio and him being more of a builder. Despite getting KO’d by Santos, I think Castaneda is a pretty durable fighter but is a hittable fighter at the same time.
More recently, he was able to take the 1st and 3rd round against Gafurov, outstruck Kang in all three rounds but then struggled with the volume and technical boxing of Marcos.
Overall, Castaneda is a good striker and won’t be an easy guy to look good against given his diversity and ability to traditionally fight a hard three rounds – although he can be hittable when effectively cut off.
Gutierrez is a tricky fighter that plays the “point-fighting” game well. He can fight from both stances and his striking is effective from both but primarily orthodox.
Gutierrez is more a volume-based guy who can work in a frustrating style for opponents. He lands 4.7 SLpM at 59% and 6.1 DLpM at 58%.
He uses a lot of footwork, stance switching, range management, straight punches, good counter hooks going backwards and a heavy kicking attack.
In that, his kicking game is of an upper tier of which he has brutalized multiple opponents’ legs and has effectively used the calf kick – which we know in 2025 is one of the more debilitating weapons you can have overall. He’s also a guy who can fight well both forwards and backwards, but does excel most when he can control the center.
Based on his style, he’s not much of a power threat but has scored a few knockout wins. One was a spinning back fist over Danaa which was kind of memey though, and then he landed the nasty knee against Edgar, but Edgar was washed and had no chin – so take those for what you will.
Defensively, he only eats 2.6 SApM at 64% and 3 DApM at 67%.
However, guys have had some success on him going forward in terms of making the exchanges and rounds closer.
Munhoz was really the guy to exploit that enough to ultimately best Gutierrez where Gutierrez struggled with the pressure and power shots coming back his way.
Despite his evasiveness, he does fight with his hands down which can get him in some trouble at points when guys can begin to corner him or catch him off the break. But he’s been very effective at distance with a positive differential of +3.1/minute.
Overall, Gutierrez is a solid striker and isn’t going to be the easiest of guys to beat clean.
How it plays out: Off the top, Gutierrez will realize a 3” height advantage but Castaneda will realize a 4” reach advantage. It’s an interesting striking battle for a handful of reasons. The first being that Gutierrez hasn’t fought many conventional southpaws (although both will switch) outside of Andre Ewell where that didn’t deter the kicking attack from Gutierrez, as he chipped away at Ewell over 15 minutes. Gutierrez is a guy that ultimately has better ring craft than Castaneda in my eyes who’s also far superior defensively exchange to exchange. However, I’d say that Castaneda has the better hands in the matchup and is the more likely of the two to land more critical head strikes. I’m curious to see which guy will be playing the aggressor.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Castaneda comes from a wrestling background where he wrestled one year at the DII level but stopped to pursue MMA – he also reps a brown belt in BJJ.
In MMA, he’s mixed in TDs to a lot of his fights which has been an aid in him securing victories throughout his career. His metrics are okay but not great, landing 1.7 TDs per 15 minutes at 37%. He’s got some submission and GNP victories on the rap sheet as well.
He submitted Johns who’s a wrestler by base but that was largely a product of Johns death gassing – Johns also essentially just fell over later in the fight, so Castaneda didn’t officially land a TD – kind of similar song and dance when he beat Rojo. He landed multiple TDs in the Santos fight but couldn’t keep him down.
He also struggled to control Gafurov through the early portions of the fight but did find more success in the back half when Gafurov got tired. He didn’t gain much control time on Kang but landed three TDs. He most recently struggled to get off and control Marcos outside of a little round two.
Defensively, he’s been taken down here and there but throughout the bulk of his career, his TDD and general get up game has been one of his better attributes as he’s not the type of guy to play guard and hang out on bottom as a good scrambler. Castaneda’s also never been submitted in 28 pro fights.
So overall, the ground is more of a strength than a weakness for Castaneda but he’s not great with conventional ground control per TD.
Gutierrez reps a BJJ brown belt but doesn’t go to the offensive wrestling much as he largely likes to play the standup game – 0.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 30%.
He is competent off his back but has been grinded in the wrestling before against guys like Barcelos, Durden (early), a bit by De Freitas, late against Colares, after the KD against Munhoz, later against Song and was recently backpacked in the 2nd by Le.
Statistically, his TDD has been good though at 71% but his get up game is where there is some pause. It’s not because I think he has a “bad” get up game, but that he can just be defensively responsible and wait for openings to stand. The issue with that is he has dropped minutes on bottom as a result.
Overall, he’s looked good from top position in the times he’s been there and has competent jiu-jitsu but he just needs more urgency when grounded at times because he can drop some minutes.
How it plays out: I’d give more upside to Castaneda here as he’s the more likely party to pursue TDs and realize success with them. At the same time, he’s still not a great entry based wrestler only getting his TDs at 37% and as noted, he’s struggled with ground control on per TD basis. So, I don’t think it will necessarily be easy for Castaneda to ground Gutierrez but I have my concerns with Gutierrez playing too much from his back if he’s put there. TDs from Castaneda could potentially loom larger even if he’s not able to do much with them if he competes closely on the feet.
Tricky fight that I don’t have a strong opinion on as I see the merit to both guys. I’d also be relatively surprised if either guy just washed the other out over 15 minutes. I’ll take Castaneda to edge out a win but this is kind of a coin toss to me that profiles to be a tight 29-28 type of fight.
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On DraftKings, you can definitely make the argument that this is a fight to ignore, though I’m not sure I will.
Gutierrez primarily has been a weak fantasy producer, as he’s not super willing to chase a finish and he doesn’t wrestle. His primary path to a ceiling is through leg kicks which always give him a sneaky path, but it’s also rarely been enough.
We’ve seen him score 56, 75, 75 and 75 in his four UFC decisions, and I don’t see much upside for more. ITD odds aren’t yet but this fight is -300 to go the distance so Gutierrez won’t have a good one.
Castaneda has been knocked down a couple of times in recent fights, and there is variance in striking exchanges. Plus, some leg kick equity. At a super low ownership, that’s the merit I see for Gutierrez, but he will need a knockout and that’s ultimately just not a likely outcome.
I don’t think I’m going to be playing Gutierrez at 8k. I just don’t think he realizes a KO very often and although he may be super contrarian, I just don’t want to make any real investment here. Mix him in for unique purposes if you wish but he has a proven style to underperform on DK and you’re generally just hoping for randomness to occur.
Castaneda is the superior target in my mind, though it’s not an easy matchup for him to excel either as Gutierrez will fight slow-ish and point fight.
Castaneda does throw more powerful shots and probably has a better chance to land big head strikes, but it still doesn’t mean that’s a likely outcome, and Gutierrez has only been knocked down once in the UFC in 13 fights where he still wasn’t finished.
The primary merit I see in Castaneda here is actually wrestling. He’s landed 10 takedowns in his last four fights, and Gutierrez has now been taken down two times in three consecutive fights. The most recent being Quang Le, where he lost a round, which is a major concern of mine.
I don’t think that Castaneda is likely to finish on the mat and his overall wrestling upside is still capped, but the simple path to a few takedowns, 5+ minutes of control and a decision win is enough to give him some viability at 8.2k.
Still, I think it’s more likely that Castaneda scores in the mid 80s than the mid 90s in a decision win, and I doubt that’s enough to be optimal at this price. But with so many boom/bust options nearby, I think Castaneda having 90 point potential could be enough, depending on how the slate shakes out.
I actually don’t mind Castaneda as a secondary target. He won’t be more than that and you could honestly come in super light on him as well just given the matchup and poor ITD metrics. But wrestling equity here is enough for me to take some chances and I think he can exceed value in a win. Adequate secondary target for me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Castaneda by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Djorden Santos vs. Ozzy Diaz
Fight Odds: Santos -209, Diaz +177
Odds to end ITD: -175
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.7k, Diaz 7.5k
Weight Class: 185
After a short night at the office in his UFC debut, Ozzy Diaz will be dropping back down to middleweight to take on Contender Series debutant Djorden Santos.
We last saw Diaz in November, where he was knocked out by Zhang Mingyang in just a few minutes in his debut as a sizable underdog. He’s now 9-3 professionally at age 34, earning seven wins by knockout and two by submission, with all three losses coming by knockout.
To be fair, his recent loss to Mingyang at LHW isn’t shocking nor awful, considering the strength and power that Mingyang possesses. And you can say the same for his DWCS loss at middleweight in 2022, which came against Joe Pyfer.
But considering Diaz is already 34 with a relatively weak skill set, it’s difficult to see the upside in him moving forward and I imagine that’s why he’s matched with a DWCS contract winner in Santos whom the UFC is hoping to promote.
Diaz is a former LFA middleweight champion, which is a strong regional promotion, and I wonder if he’ll be better suited for this weight class at the UFC level.
I mostly consider Diaz to be a decent boxer, coming from the Kings MMA camp. He has fast hands, and he’s fairly technical.
He likes to walk forward, throw the jab, and he’s willing to brawl a bit. His power has obviously translated very well as he’s been able to hurt most of his opponents, and I expect that could continue at the UFC level.
I wouldn’t say Diaz is the best athlete, but I don’t have too many complaints about him. Even as being a kill or be killed type, his cardio has seemed totally fine when fights have extended into the second round.
His wrestling is probably a weakness though. He was taken down and controlled by Pyfer on DWCS, and I’ve seen him taken down in recent regional fights as well, but he will find a way to survive and get back to his feet.
He will kick as well, but mostly to the legs and I don’t see him being a major threat with any other weapons than his hands.
I don’t view Diaz as a fantastic prospect by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s a fine fighter and will likely be reliant on early finishes.
He’ll be taking on Djorden Santos this weekend, who is 10-1 professionally and coming off a Contender Series win in which he was a heavy +340 underdog. Of those 10 wins, three have come by knockout and four have come by submission. He’s a training partner of the Bonfim brothers.
In that DWCS bout, Santos was able to defend the takedowns coming from his opponent and simply outbox and outpace him over the duration. I think that’s the upside for Santos moving forward, and I view him as more of a round winner than a finisher at the UFC level.
Honestly, I think the best part of Santos’ game that I’ve seen is his defensive grappling. I really like the way he sprawls on shots, and he’s simply difficult to take down. His DWCS opponent was a strong wrestler and was only able to take him down twice on 15 attempts, but he still couldn’t manage any real control.
When I’ve seen Santos get taken down on the regional scene, he pops up very quickly so I am quite hopeful that he can control where the fight takes place against average wrestlers at middleweight.
He can also wrestle offensively himself, though I’m unsure of his exact BJJ credentials, he doesn’t look like a major threat to me on the ground. I would say that Santos at least has a path to victory on the mat and is likely a competent submission grappler, training with the likes of Gabriel Bonfim, but I wouldn’t expect him to easily submit or control any decent UFC level opponent.
Santos’ boxing is OK, and that’s where he had a ton of success on DWCS. I don’t think he’s an elite striker though, nor is he a major knockout threat. Four of his last six bouts have gone the distance, including his last three.
In the few fights I’ve been able to watch, Santos usually comes out hot and shows some very fast hands early in fights. He’s decent but I just don’t think he’s super effective which is why I rate him more as a volume based round winner.
I’ve also seen him slow down pretty notably in fights before, which is one major reason why he lost his only fight by decision in 2019, despite being the better fighter in that matchup.
Santos was ripping on his DWCS opponent though, so he has some promise. It was clear his opponent had nothing really in return though, so it wasn’t exactly a war. I don’t think it’s a fair representation of how most of his fights will look and I don’t think he’s as defensively sound as he might have looked on DWCS.
Ultimately, I’m honestly not that high on Santos for the long term. I like his defensive grappling a lot, and I think his boxing is pretty competent, but I struggle to see where he easily wins at the UFC level.
Perhaps he’ll showcase more power here than on the regionals but he’ll likely have to face much more adversity here than on the regionals as well. His volume on DWCS was strong enough where I think he can get ahead in rounds, but I only consider him a mediocre prospect.
This matchup is a little tricky because Diaz is moving back down to MW where he’ll have a size advantage over Santos, being four inches taller with a four inch reach advantage.
I don’t think Santos is a clearly better boxer than Diaz, and with Diaz being bigger, it at least gives Diaz a path to win.
Of the two, it clearly seems like Diaz is less durable though, with all three of his losses coming by knockout. However, it does beg the question how Santos would look if he also fought Pyfer and Mingyang..
The other aspect is that Santos has gone the distance many times, and won many times, while Diaz has never seen the scorecards. It’s pretty reasonable to favor Santos based on this alone and I’d have to give him considerably more decision equity.
Also, of the two, I think Santos likely has the grappling advantage. Based on the tape I’ve seen, I’d be pretty surprised if Diaz could take down and control Santos. I’m not sure if Santos will try to wrestle but he might, and I think he could have some success. Perhaps he can control Diaz and threaten with a submission.
I just don’t want to overvalue Santos here because the most likely outcome is that these two box, in which case, it feels somewhat even. Diaz is longer and a better boxer than most everyone Santos has ever faced, so he has a real path to win in that sense.
However, it seems that the other intangibles like durability, wrestling and cardio should all favor Santos, so leaning toward him as the pick makes sense.
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On DraftKings, Santos is priced at 8.7k and I think he’s a solid tournament target given Diaz’ questionable durability.
I really do not view Santos as a dangerous knockout artist, but I’m also not super sure if Diaz can really take punches. Considering Santos does start out hot, he probably has an early KO path to victory, even if it’s more based on his opponent being weak than on his pure power.
If he cannot secure the early knockout, it’s fair to reason that he probably won’t reach a ceiling. But at least there are options. Diaz has never seen the cards so maybe Santos can pour on offense late and find a stoppage. Maybe he can wrestle at some point and find a stoppage.
Santos is +125 to win ITD which is really strong and certainly puts him in play for upside.
The more I’ve dug into this slate, the less options I like. Most fights are extremely boom or bust which makes things quite difficult, especially when I expect a lot of the fights to extend.
I am not happy about it but I am much higher on Santos from a slate standpoint than I thought I would be after doing full research. I still question his skills to a degree and wouldn’t even be shocked if he lost, but I do think he has a more reasonable path to a ceiling than many other fighters, and this matchup feels like a good one to be invested in.
He will likely be popular as a debutant against Diaz though, who everyone will know just got KOd. So I’m not sure I’ll be extremely overweight to the field. However, as gross as it sounds, I honestly feel a bit obligated to invest in Santos on this slate and I expect I will have moderate exposure across the board. He still carries some uncertainty and some risk in an extended fight.
Diaz at 7.5k will be the leverage side of the equation, and he could be pretty low owned coming off another big KO loss.
I don’t think he’s a phenomenal play, but I don’t think he’s a terrible one at leverage either. He’s never won a fight by decision but he’s shown solid power, and he’s fought better competition than Santos has.
I’ve seen Santos mildly hurt before, and I’ve seen him tired before. There are at least paths for Diaz. Plus, he’s bigger and longer.
Diaz is +265 to win ITD which is actually pretty decent. I don’t plan on having too much exposure to him on this slate. But at leverage, it’s never a horrible idea to fade a DWCS debutant and I think he makes for an OK pivot off some of the more chalky options in this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Medium)