Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
Fight Odds: Pimblett -228, Gaethje +191
Odds to end ITD: -275
DraftKings Salaries: Pimblett 8.9k, Gaethje 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
It appears Ilia Topuria is now out of the lightweight picture for some time, and the UFC has called upon Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett to contend for the vacant lightweight title.
Pimblett finally proved himself worthy of a high ranking in this division with a dominant performance over Michael Chandler last April, to the sad cries of many fans stateside who wanted to see him fail.
He’s one of those rare fighters who was extremely hyped up entering the promotion, though the hype was not necessarily deserved.
With that said, Pimblett is a solid fighter and the hate that he’s received has arguably made him undervalued in some spots.
Pimblett is a crafty submission grappler where he is probably at his best, and prior to his win over Chandler, he locked up a super slick submission against Bobby Green in the first round.
He’s also proven to be a better striker than I originally thought. He throws with power and he’s shown a pretty diverse kicking game. He was attacking the legs of Green early which made Green dive into a takedown attempt that got him submitted.
I think Pimblett on the whole is pretty decent. He can win in multiple areas and he’s tough as hell.
His defense, however, is still pretty poor and I think that will cost him at the top of the division. His striking defense, primarily, is an issue where he is there to be cracked, and he’s only defending strikes at a super poor 42 percent rate.
He was hurt really badly in his UFC debut but still came back to knock the guy out cold late in the first round. Jared Gordon cracked him as well. I wouldn’t have been surprised if Chandler hurt him badly at some point.
Pimblett has also shown somewhat weak defensive wrestling too, where he sits at 50 percent which isn’t great. Jordan Leavitt even took him down three times which is pretty embarrassing. He came back to submit Leavitt though which again shows his toughness.
Additionally, Pimblett looked kind of tired late in the fight against Tony Ferguson, though he fought through it. He’s actually fought five rounds on a few different occasions in Cage Warriors early in his career, two of which he lost by decision. He has a five round win over Julian Erosa as well.
Chandler wasn’t able to have much success at distance against Pimblett, only landing 10 distance strikes in 13 minutes of action. He instead tried to wrestle which I knew would be a path to fail him. Although he did land four takedowns, he couldn’t maintain control and got very tired in the process.
In round three, Pimblett was able to land a takedown and rain down elbows from mount to finish a tired Chandler.
I think Pimblett is pretty good in the aggregate but as he takes on the top level of the division, he’s likely going to lose. He’s just too defensively lacking in multiple areas and toughness will only get him so far.
But he has multiple tools to threaten opponents and he won’t quit, making him a dangerous out for many.
Justin Gaethje has been a veteran of the sport for many years, and even announced he would be retiring if he did not get this title opportunity. He’s coming off a decent win over Rafael Fiziev last March.
Gaethje comes from a wrestling background but hasn’t been able to use it offensively much, and only lands 0.10 takedowns per 15 minutes. Instead, he’s an all-action fighter and arguably one of the most “all-action” fighters in the history of the sport.
There are very few fighters who are willing to eat 8-10 hard shots in order to land a handful of their own, and Gaethje is one of them. He has shown the ability to break opponents because of that style, and fans love him for it.
But the numbers don’t lie, and the numbers say that Gaethje is absorbing 7.18 sig. strikes per minute which is a ton. He’s taken tons of damage over his career, and he’s been knocked out a few times from it, though less than you might think. Most famously, he was KOd in the final seconds of a five-round battle by Max Holloway in April 2024.
Gaethje lands 6.59 sig. strikes per minute of his own though, and has real power, along with some of the better leg kicks in the division. He is a really excellent fighter in his ability to dish out damage over an extended period. He’s going to eat a lot of shots in the process, but he can typically outlast opponents.
This is a weird matchup because on paper, you have two defensively lacking fighters here. You can argue Gaethje is the more technically sound, consistent and experienced striker of the two, but he eats so many shots that it’s hard to feel confident in him.
Conversely, if Pimblett is getting tired and forced to trade, he lacks the skills to defend himself and Gaethje could potentially pour on the damage. I do like the kicks of Pimblett at distance but I also like the leg kicks of Gaethje.
I think the real edge Pimblett has is on the mat, where he’s a far better submission grappler than Gaethje. We haven’t seen Gaethje taken down often but he looked completely lost against Khabib in that title fight. Fiziev just took him down twice and Gaethje scrambled up fine.
I don’t think this is a wash for Pimblett in the sense that he’s only landing 0.96 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t an elite wrestler. He may not get the fight to the mat with any consistency. If he does, I think it’s pretty likely he can take Gaethje’s back, beat him up and secure a finish though.
On the feet, I like Pimblett a little better at longer distances but I don’t trust him as much to sustain that style for five rounds. I trust Gaethje more to take some damage and return fire, and I trust him a little bit more in wars. Either man could get hurt though.
From a career trajectory standpoint, I suppose I lean toward Pimblett in that he’s younger and fresher, and does have a real edge on the mat. He could make this look easy if he lands 2-3 takedowns, and I’d bet on another finish occurring. In pure striking exchanges, I view Gaethje as very likely to stay competitive and hurt Pimblett along the way but as we know, Gaethje will still eat a ton of shots of his own.
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On DraftKings, I generally view this fight as a priority given the main event status, and the high number of exchanges we are likely to see.
Pimblett could be viewed as one of the best targets on the slate at 8.9k. Despite some question marks, he’ll carry a very strong floor/ceiling combination in a win given his style.
Not only does Pimblett have a path to victory on the mat, and a path to victory inside the distance, but Gaethje is also absorbing more than 7 strikes per minute. So if things go right for Pimblett, and he wins, I would expect a very strong score north of 100 points on DraftKings.
You can still poke holes here. Pimblett doesn’t wrestle in volume. The fight could extend. He doesn’t land at a high volume himself necessarily. Pimblett has won in RD 3 before and scored only 103. He’s won in RD 2 and scored only 87. He’s won in RD 1 and scored only 93.
So there are ways for Pimblett to underperform, most notably if he’s not clearly winning and then kind of falls into a submission.
Regardless, he is -155 to win ITD and Gaethje brings a super high pace. Pimblett should produce offense and is likely to clear 100 points in a win. At 8.9k, I’d aim for moderate exposure to Pimblett on this slate and he could be a priority outright.
Gaethje at 7.3k seems extremely likely to be optimal in a win.
I’m already not expecting a lot of underdog wins, so even if Gaethje underperforms a bit, his price is very forgiving. We’ve seen him score in the mid-70s in recent decision wins but those were only three round fights.
Now in five rounds, if Gaethje wins, it will come from a high volume of strikes landed, and damage. A knockout or knockdown is very likely as well. Gaethje is only +400 to win ITD but Pimblett doesn’t defend strikes super well and I think the most likely outcome in a win for Gaethje is probably a TKO.
I’m open to playing him as well based on the matchup. My gut feeling is Pimblett will find a way to win, but the fact remains that he hasn’t proven he can wrestle in volume, and he hasn’t proven he can win striking wars. Gaethje is very live if he keeps the fight upright.
At 7.3k, Gaethje seems like a solid secondary target and playing him near the field makes sense. He shouldn’t be super chalk but as the main event underdog, he’ll certainly get some attention.
I don’t feel great enough about him to be much above the field but I wouldn’t want to fade him in this spot either.
Ultimately, I’m fairly high on this matchup for fantasy purposes and want the winner on a large portion of my teams. I lean toward that winner being Pimblett but given the pricing, both sides seem like quality options in all formats.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pimblett by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong
Fight Odds: O’Malley -194, Song +164
Odds to end ITD: +165
DraftKings Salaries: O’Malley 8.8k, Song 7.4k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a heck of a matchup here in the bantamweight division between Sean O’Malley and Song Yadong.
O’Malley is extremely talented. He is a fantastic striker with incredible volume. He lands a whopping 6.30 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 3.48 in return.
O’Malley’s defense is also fantastic as he defends strikes at 60 percent. His defense is even better when defending his head. I could write an entire book on how good his head strike defense is. However, to keep it short, I will just say this guy almost never gets hit to the head.
I also love O’Malley’s length and it is one of the main reasons why he defends strikes well, as he uses his length to manage range effectively. He is 5’11” and has a 72” reach which is towards the high end at 135 lbs.
What is awesome about O’Malley’s striking is that he doesn’t just have length, volume, and striking defense. He also has power. He has 7 knockout victories in his 10 UFC wins and he consistently knocks down or hurts his opponents. So he is a guy who not only can consistently win rounds on the feet with volume, but he can also finish opponents standing or land big strikes to swing rounds.
O’Malley can also fight going forwards or backwards and has tremendous cardio. His five round striking performance against Marlon Vera was amazing where he outlanded Vera 230-89 in significant strikes.
I know O’Malley lost his last two fights against Merab but I expected it, and we played Merab in those matchups. They were just bad matchups for O’Malley. Merab is a crazy pace wrestler so O’Malley’s striking offense was just nullified. I actually do think O’Malley is a decent defensive wrestler too. He defends takedowns at 61 percent but a large chunk of his fight time is against Merab and he honestly defended the wrestling well in moments.
I think really good grapplers like Yan, Merab, and Umar can have success against O’Malley but other than that, I actually think O’Malley is a strong enough defensive grappler to defend and get a striking fight in his wheelhouse.
O’Malley will be taking on Song Yadong. Yadong is one of the better Chinese fighters in the UFC. I pretty much consider him a striker, and a pretty good one. He uses his athleticism and fast twitch gifts to spring in and out to land his shots. He has good straight punches and some decent kicks as well.
Yadong lands 4.58 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.00 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent. He is clearly solid on the feet and has some solid power.
Yadong doesn’t offensively wrestle that much and only lands 0.61 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think his wrestling is really good enough to land takedowns against above average fighters / defensive grapplers in the division. However, he did rely on his wrestling in his fight against Chris Gutierrez to win a decision.
Yadong’s defensive grappling is okay. He defends takedowns at 73 percent but he scrambles up decently. However, he was beaten up on the mat late against Stamann. Yan also beat him up on the mat late. I think his defensive grappling is decent but it will maybe be an issue against the better wrestlers of this division. However, it did look better against Sandhagen and Simon.
I still just question Yadong’s quality of wins. I sneakily think his wins have aged terribly which I don’t think many people will mention this week. His last four wins came against Marlon Moraes, Ricky Simon, Chris Gutierrez, and an extremely aged Henry Cejudo.
Yadong hasn’t beaten all that many volume strikers either. Sandhagen doubled him up at range 86-44. Even in some of Yadong’s wins, his volume striking hasn’t been great. He actually was doubled up at range against Gutierrez. Cejudo looked AWFUL against Talbott and even Cejudo stayed competitive in his fight with Yadong. Yadong only outlanded Cejudo 82-67 at distance.
So I actually think O’Malley is a bad matchup for Yadong. O’Malley is arguably the best volume striker in the division and is at the very least top three.
O’Malley has a length edge and should just be able to use his length and range and win the striking rounds. Yadong also likes to stay at kicking range. It is a range that should allow O’Malley to land pretty easily and I think Yadong will struggle to land.
I don’t think this is a mismatch on the feet by any means. Yadong is skillful and has some speed, especially early. However, if Yadong doesn’t hurt O’Malley, I just expect O’Malley to win a somewhat competitive but clear 30-27 / 29-28 type of decision.
Maybe Yadong can have some wrestling success? However, I just doubt it. He lands 0.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and has never landed more than 2 takedowns in a three round fight. Even if Yadong tries to wrestle, I am not sure he can take O’Malley down or hold him down easily either.
So my pick is O’Malley, I think it is a sneaky good matchup for him. He is going to finally get a likely pure striking fight which is a fight he thrives in. O’Malley sneakily has had to face volume takedown artists in a lot of his last matchups. Four of his last five matchups have been Merab, Merab, Aljo, and Yan. He wasn’t really able to free flow with his strikes. He wasn’t always worried about or defending takedowns. However, if you look at the Vera fight or any pure striking fights O’Malley has had, he has never really lost and has always looked good.
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On DraftKings, I don’t view this fight as a must target though I do think we’ll see a high pace and a high number of exchanges.
Those exchanges will primarily come on the feet though, which makes this fight tricky to analyze. Plus, this fight is only scheduled for three rounds, so there’s less time to accrue fantasy points.
O’Malley has proven capable of breaking the norm though, and we’ve seen him land 230 sig. strikes in a three-round fight before. His offensive metrics are some of the best in the sport.
In this particular matchup, I do think O’Malley can and will land at a high rate, and it’s possible he could flirt with an elite fantasy score because of it. The issue mostly comes in projection where 140 sig. strikes over 15 minutes would only equate to 86 DK points.
At 8.8k, that’s not going to be enough for O’Malley to be optimal. And he won’t project to land near that number of strikes on average. So for him to be optimal, we need an outlier performance.
Additionally, Song is ultra durable and O’Malley is only +300 to win ITD here which I think is fair. He’ll have no wrestling equity. He just needs an insane number of strikes to land.
There aren’t many good comps to O’Malley but Song has absorbed 90+ sig. strikes in three rounds on multiple occasions. I wouldn’t be shocked to see O’Malley push into that 120-140 range. Betting on him to land 150+ just doesn’t seem extremely realistic.
So ultimately, O’Malley won’t rate out well here. He lacks finishing equity and wrestling equity and basically needs an outlier volume performance. It is within his wheelhouse though, and depending on his public ownership, he could be a worthwhile contrarian play. He’ll be tough to prioritize outright though.
Song is priced at 7.4k and is a bit more dependent on power.
He won’t have an easy time outlanding O’Malley. He might be able to land a small number of takedowns but I don’t see him being extremely impactful there.
Given his power, there’s some KO equity but Song is only +450 to win ITD. I just don’t view him as a great bet. O’Malley is really hard to land on, especially to the head. Song will probably survive three rounds, land a few strikes and maybe make some rounds competitive but I don’t see him winning easily unless he lands a random big shot.
Song is only a low-end target for me this week. Fine if you want to mix him in alongside the field but I don’t view this as a very fantasy friendly matchup for him, and there are other dogs I’d rather take chances on.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: O’Malley by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis
Fight Odds: Cortes-Acosta -319, Lewis +261
Odds to end ITD: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Cortes-Acosta 9.2k, Lewis 7k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a very intriguing fight here in the heavyweight division between Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Derrick Lewis.
Cortes-Acosta is from the Dominican Republic, and comes from a background in baseball, where he was eventually kicked out of the Cincinnati Reds’ organization after getting into a fight with a teammate. He then got into boxing training and started MMA shortly after so he doesn’t have a deep fighting pedigree.
Cortes-Acosta honestly is decent and has fared well in the UFC thus far, holding a 10-2 in the promotion. I have randomly bet on this guy successfully like five times. He is clearly best as a boxer. He relies on his hands and his jab a lot. He is a pretty good athlete for HW, and I do consider his hands decent. He has some alright speed. He has power as well, and I do think he is knockout capable in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He has decent timing on his strikes. He most recently knocked out Shamil Gaziev. He also famously knocked out Ante Delija after getting eye poked and nearly TKOd.
Cortes-Acosta basically just looks to land at distance and mix in dirty boxing in the clinch. His cardio looks to be solid and he seems like a tough dude. I think his durability and composure are strengths of his. I have never even seen him really hurt before and his knockout of Delija after the eye poke clearly showed some toughness.
Cortes-Acosta lands 5.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.53 in return. Those are good metrics and I like that he lands consistently without tiring badly. Waldo also has dominated the head strike numbers in his fights thus far. I overall like his striking. I did think he underperformed against Sergei Pavlovich but Pavlovich is a good heavyweight striker so I will give him a pass for that.
Cortes-Acosta doesn’t look to wrestle all that often and he doesn’t really have a ground game background, so I doubt grappling is a consistent path to victory for him at this level. However, he did outgrapple Robelis Despaigne which isn’t saying much but it at least showed that he can take advantage of fighters with major holes. He also may just be improving in general as he is young from an MMA career standpoint.
I honestly think Cortes-Acosta’s takedown defense is decent too. He was outwrestled a few years ago by Marcos Rogerio de Lima. However, he now defends takedowns at 72 percent and has defended takedowns well since. He also has shown some get-ups. Some good grapplers can probably expose Cortes-Acosta on the mat. However, I think he is pretty serviceable as a defensive grappler.
Cortes-Acosta will be taking on Derrick Lewis. We know what Derrick Lewis is. He is not very good at anything from a skill perspective. His metrics aren’t great either. He lands 2.51 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.49 in return. He defends strikes at a terrible 40 percent.
However, Lewis has MASSIVE power and is capable of ending a fight at any moment. Therefore, metrics don’t really matter as much with Lewis as he has had 30 UFC fights and 15 of them have ended inside the distance. So his fights are just hard to predict in general. He recently knocked out Tallison Teixeira in an upset win in the first minute. I actually thought Lewis was being disrespected going into that matchup.
I actually really respect how Lewis optimizes his path to victory. He doesn’t go out there chasing the knockout right away and put himself at risk to tire out. He fights at a bit of a slow pace, makes his opponents hesitant, and then he will explode a couple of times per round. He fights in bursts. If he gets the knock out on an explosion, he will take it. However, if he doesn’t, he just kind of calms down and doesn’t exert himself, restarts and waits for another opportunity to explode. It is honestly very smart and I don’t think he always gets credit for his fight IQ. Yes, he isn’t skilled, but honestly who has overachieved in the UFC more than Lewis? It is hard to find many other fighters.
Lewis is simply always going to be live to end the fight at any moment. That is just who he is and what he does. However, I do think that he has bad durability and that it goes unnoticed to a certain degree. The man only absorbs 2.49 significant strikes per minute so he does not get hit much. When he does get hit, he simply does not react well and he has been knocked out five times in the UFC. So although he is EXTREMELY dangerous, he is also live to get hurt as well. He also really struggles when someone boxes him at range. I think technical outside the strikers give him the most issues.
Lewis is not much of a grappler. He only lands 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, I do respect how dangerous he is if he manages to get in top position. He can absolutely put people away and has ruthless ground-and-pound. Lewis isn’t a great defensive grappler and only defends takedowns at 52 percent. However, I doubt his defensive grappling will really matter against Cortes-Acosta.
I think these guys are going to strike and obviously Lewis has a chance to knock out anyone. So Lewis could pull the upset here simply because he has that knockout power. So he has a chance.
The issue is I think that the knockout chance for Lewis here is less likely than usual. Cortes-Acosta has never been knocked out and honestly seems like one of the more durable fighters in this division. My guess is Lewis doesn’t get Cortes-Acosta out of there.
So Cortes-Acosta should just get his opportunities to land himself and he is the more technical boxer here. I also just think Cortes-Acosta lands enough to where he will probably hurt Lewis and my guess is Lewis won’t want to fight through it. So my guess is Cortes-Acosta eventually puts Lewis away.
I could see a world where Cortes-Acosta just uses his boxing skill and outjabs Lewis to a boring decision victory too. So the pick is Cortes-Acosta. If he survives, he should win this fight and my guess is he survives more often than not.
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On DraftKings, Cortes-Acosta will be an extremely boom or bust tournament option.
It sucks because although I’ve been high on him from a betting standpoint, and capitalized there on a few occasions, I’ve swung and missed a few times on DraftKings. I wasn’t particularly confident in him winning by first-round KO in his two most recent matchups, but he smashed Gaziev and Delija and ended up optimal.
The issue is without that early finish, Cortes-Acosta will bust. He is not likely to wrestle, and volume striking won’t matter at this price and in this particular matchup. It will quite likely be enough to win rounds and win the fight but at 9.2k, we need the quick KO.
I’m not the biggest fan of Lewis historically and I don’t love his durability. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see him hurt immediately and finished. He was hurt immediately in his last fight and tends to get hurt in striking exchanges.
But Cortes-Acosta can also be very patient, and so can Lewis. And this fight is actually -147 to go Over 1.5 rounds, which really scares me. If this fight does go Over 1.5 rounds, do you want a lot of action here? I’d guess not.
So you can definitely make the argument that Cortes-Acosta is not a priority, and I think that’s where I’ll lean. He’s certainly got some tournament upside and is worth mixing in, but he’s only -120 to win ITD and chances are it doesn’t come in Round 1.
Especially if he’s popular, coming off two big KO wins, the better tournament strategy is probably to come in a bit underweight and hope the fight extends. With a larger portfolio, using him as a secondary target for general HW variance and KO upside makes sense.
Lewis is priced at 7k and is a standard, low-end, play it near the field type of target.
He’s not a great fantasy scorer as he doesn’t wrestle, and barely lands any strikes. But he can score a big KO win at any time, and he often does it as an underdog.
In this matchup, he honestly rates out terribly. Cortes-Acosta doesn’t eat a lot of strikes and he’s never been knocked down once in 27 UFC rounds. He’s fought big hitters like Pavlovich. Lewis is only +350 to win ITD.
You can definitely argue here too that if Lewis is going to be popular, coming in light is the correct call. You’re hoping for one random moment where Lewis lands a huge shot and wins. It is HW, and Lewis is powerful, so the possibility exists.
With a smaller portfolio I’m not going to push it on Lewis and I don’t mind being underweight. With a larger portfolio the easiest call is to come in near the field and not sweat it too much, though I lean against actively being in on Lewis this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas
Fight Odds: Silva -385, Namajunas +309
Odds to end ITD: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9.4k, Namajunas 6.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential title eliminator here as Natalia Silva gets a huge opportunity to take on former champion Rose Namajunas this weekend.
Silva actually just defeated a former champion in Alexa Grasso in her last matchup. Silva looked fantastic in that fight and won a clean 30-27 decision by using superior defense and range control and outlanded Grasso 60-45 in significant strikes.
Silva is best as a striker. Silva lands 5.04 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.46 in return. She defends strikes at a solid 65 percent. She does a very good job moving backwards to control range and countering to land her kicks. She also likes to occasionally spring into range to wing punches in the pocket. She then likes to get back to her range on the outside and start landing kicks again.
Silva is just a master at controlling range and landing her kicks. I think she thrives most against strikers who rely on their boxing and hands. The boxers just struggle landing their punches and get picked off at a longer kicking range by Silva. It is why I really liked Silva in her matchup against Alexa Grasso as Grasso isn’t much of a kicker who can land at kicking range. So Silva was able to just avoid the hands of Grasso and land her kicks.
Silva is fast and has decent pop for this division. She is one of the rare women fighters who can strike going backwards, and I think she can outland the majority of this division on the feet. She also seems to have good defense in general.
Silva also occasionally mixes in takedowns, mostly from the clinch, and she can float on top a bit. I don’t consider her offensive wrestling all that great and she only lands 0.34 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she is pretty physically strong and has decent upper body takedown technique. She can definitely land occasional takedowns vs below-average competition.
Silva’s defensive wrestling, especially from the clinch, seems pretty strong. Her TDD overall held up against Tereza Bleda, Victoria Leonardo, and Viviane Araujo. She is currently defending takedowns at 92 percent. She also just seems to have a decent understanding of BJJ as well. She can be taken down here and there, but I consider her defensive grappling good overall.
Silva is overall a good talent. She has defensive grappling to keep the fight standing where she thrives and I think she is a title threat.
Silva will be taking on former UFC champion Rose Namajunas. Rose is still a solid fighter and has some great wins on her resume. She is a skilled striker. She only lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.38 in return. However, she defends strikes at 63 percent which is good and has sneaky power and snap on her strikes. So she tends to outperform her metrics.
She also has competed just fine with volume strikers before in Weili Zhang and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. I do think she can get outhustled though, and we have seen her moderately slow down later in fights. I think that is more so a five round fight thing. I actually think Rose is extremely difficult to beat in three round fights.
Rose is also a tricky grappler and has proven to be a quite effective offensive wrestler in recent years. She lands 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes and outgrappled Weili Zhang in their second fight which is aging well in hindsight. She has decent timing and opportune takedown ability. She also has some decent submissions and is a somewhat dangerous submission grappler. I honestly thought her wrestling looked great against Tracy Cortez where she landed five takedowns. She actually had more wrestling success against Cortez than Jasmine did.
Rose has also randomly landed a takedown in six of her last seven fights against elite competition. So takedowns have consistently been part of her game in recent years.
Rose only defends takedowns at 62 percent, but I do think her scrambling ability and TDD has improved. I think her main issue is that she can get stuck on her back when she slows down a bit. Again, I still consider her takedown defense and defensive grappling adequate though.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually think this line is wide. This is coming from a guy who loved Silva at -200 against Alexa Grasso. However, Grasso is a boxer with no long range or kicking tools to land consistently on Silva. That matchup was perfect for Silva to safely control range and win rounds easily.
Now you are telling me that Silva should be -500 against Rose? I am skeptical of that. Rose actually has a long range game and is capable of landing kicks at long range, and Rose can spring in with longer range punches as well. I don’t think this will be as easy for Silva to just skate around and land kicks and not get touched. I actually think Silva will be in more danger to get landed on here.
I still do think I like Silva’s overall defensive game more and I am going to pick her to win. However, I am expecting a striking fight here where it is actually quite competitive and more of a 29-28 decision with either girl capable of winning.
Another reason why I think this line is wide is because Rose may have mild grappling upside. I don’t think Rose will easily land takedowns or easily hold Silva down or anything. However, Rose is tricky with her takedowns and I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if she landed a takedown that swung a round.
So I am expecting a competitive fight here with a mild lean toward Silva but nothing more than that and I think Silva -400-500 is far too wide.
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On DraftKings, I’ll probably just fade Silva at 9.4k and move on with my life.
That may not be a hot take, but it’s just not worth the time to invest in Silva unless you have 150 lineups to play around with. Even then, I’m not sure.
Silva doesn’t wrestle much, and her volume won’t be enough to clear the optimal at this kind of price tag. She is set up to win moderate paced, striking decisions, which just won’t score enough. And in her recent wins, Silva has only put up 58, 78, 50 and 58. She has one big score of 108 but that came in a first round KO.
Here, Silva is +350 to win ITD and that might be generous. Rose has been KOd before, but only via slam. She’s never been knocked down in 18 UFC fights.
The most likely outcome here, by far, is that Silva lands 80ish significant strikes and scores in the mid-60s on DK. The only other point to make is that she may come in sub 10 percent owned publicly.
With Nurmagomedov, Gautier, Miller and Cortes-Acosta in this range, Silva just doesn’t come close to a priority and I don’t see her as a good contrarian target either. If you do want a place to be unique, feel free to chase her for that reason on a small percentage of teams, but she needs an early KO to have any shot at the optimal and I don’t view that as a very likely outcome.
Namajunas at 6.8k has some merit as a salary saver.
This slate looks like a stars and scrubs build and if you want to pay up, you’ll have to save salary somewhere. Ideally, it’s not with Namajunas and if I can, I will pay up into the low 7k range for more win equity.
Namajunas won’t even rate out well because she isn’t a guarantee to wrestle, and Silva is tough to land strikes on. She is +900 to win ITD. So the most likely outcome here is probably that Namajunas lands 50 strikes and puts up 20 DK points, which isn’t good.
However, there is a decent chance that we see most dogs lose on this slate, and therefore, a loser could be optimal. This fight is -400 to go the distance, and Namajunas could theoretically wrestle. A close decision is not out of the question.
Given the salary relief, I think Namajunas is viable as a low-end target and she’ll have cash viability as well. I’m definitely not excited to play her but she provides a touch of safety and experience, so for 6.8k, I don’t mind mixing her in on occasion.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -260, Allen +216
Odds to end ITD: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9.1k, Allen 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger here between Jean Silva and Arnold Allen. This is a very interesting fight, and I am excited to see how it plays out.
Silva is now 6-1 in the UFC and had his first loss in his last matchup against Diego Lopes.
I had always been very skeptical of Silva. However, he has shown me that he is clearly an extremely dangerous striker. He is very fast, and he has ruthless power and explosiveness. He is also just accurate and he can clearly knockout or hurt anyone. He is a very dangerous guy and 6 of his 7 wins have come by finish.
Silva also keeps up a pretty high pace and lands 4.79 significant strikes per minute. He even has a 3 round decision win against Kevin Vallejos. So he isn’t just KO or bust.
There are a few issues with Silva though. First, he is a bit too much of a showman. In his fight against Diego Lopes, I absolutely think Silva would have won that fight had he not fought so recklessly. Had Silva just stayed composed and stuck to basic and non-energy exerting strikes, I think he would have finished Lopes. After a dangerous ground attack from Lopes in round one, Silva escaped it and was beating the crap out of Lopes on the feet. Had Silva just stayed composed and patient, he would have likely finished Lopes.
Instead, Silva couldn’t help himself and got super aggressive and was throwing dumb things like spinning elbows. His aggression eventually got himself dropped with a spinning elbow of Lopes and then finished on the mat. It was just a really dumb performance by Silva.
I also just think Silva has some defensive issues. He can be tagged on the feet and when you fight so aggressively, variance can occur. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Silva got caught and hurt again.
Silva also has some defensive grappling issues as we saw against Lopes. I still actually do think Silva is a decent defensive wrestler and he defends takedowns at a solid 78 percent and shut Bryce Mitchell down. However, Silva clearly does rely on explosions and athleticism to get out of grappling sequences a bit too much, and dominant grapplers can likely expose him there. I still do think Silva will be fine overall defending the grappling of a lot of guys in this division though.
Silva is still clearly a very good and extremely dangerous striker though, and because of that he is live to honestly beat most guys in this weight class.
Silva will be taking on Arnold Allen. Allen is solid in all aspects of the game but sometimes his offense is limited.
Allen is mostly a striker although he will mix in occasional grappling as well. Allen has good fundamental boxing and straight punches. He can also mix in the occasional kicks, but I consider his hands his primary striking weapons.
Allen lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.88 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. Allen controls range decently well. He doesn’t have a ton of power but he has a couple of knockdowns and one knockout in the UFC.
My biggest concern with Allen is his overall output. His striking offense is just so low. 3.45 significant strikes per minute is just not enough. I just feel like Allen is at risk of not clearly winning striking rounds.
Allen is decent defensively but I actually don’t think he looked that great in his most recent matchup against Giga Chikadze. In the first round, Allen was getting tagged semi clean and he lost the round. Eventually Allen pulled away in the second half of round two and round three after Chikadze tired. However, the only reason Allen ended up winning was because Chikadze slowed down badly. I do think Allen is pretty darn tough, but he has been hurt a couple of times including against Evloev.
Allen is actually a decent grappler. He lands 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes and has two wins by guillotine in the UFC. I don’t think his control top game is great, and I don’t think he will take and hold down good defensive grapplers. However, he is capable of spot takedowns here and there. Allen is good defensively as a grappler. He defends takedowns at 75 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think these guys will strike. I think both guys are good enough defensive grapplers to just keep this on the feet.
I do think Allen has what it takes to keep this competitive. Allen is a decent striker and Silva does have some defensive issues. Silva may fight like a showman as well and get himself caught again. So Allen can probably compete and land here and there.
However, I just think Silva is so much more dangerous than Allen and he is more aggressive as well.. Allen doesn’t have a ton of power and even though Allen is tough, Allen can be hurt a bit.
I also just don’t think Allen looked great vs Chikadze and he was getting caught clean before Chikadze slowed down. I feel like Silva is going to land some hard shots here which will either result in a knockout or will just lead to a decision win for Silva. I just feel like Silva will land more impactful strikes. I also think Silva has more speed. So my lean here is Silva. I think he will just land harder which will be the difference.
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On DraftKings, this will be a super boom or bust spot on both sides.
The most important thing I want to note here is that Arnold Allen is a pace down fighter. He wants to fight slow, cautiously, and limit exchanges. Silva could still make him pay with elite pressure and power, but at a base level, I’m concerned about the number of exchanges here.
Silva is priced at 9.1k and needs an early knockout. I don’t see much hope for wrestling exchanges, and I don’t see much hope for volume landed. He needs to KO Allen to have a real shot at the optimal, and that’s a tough path.
Allen has been hurt before but he’s never been knocked down, and he even went five rounds with Max Holloway. Silva is +105 to win ITD and I think an extended fight is the most likely outcome. The fight itself is -127 to go Over 2.5 rounds.
So that does not make me like Silva on DraftKings. It makes me want to fade him. Without an early KO, he’ll bust at this price tag and I strongly prefer many other options.
With that said, Silva is still dangerous and I don’t want to completely discount his chance. He fought so aggressively against Lopes and that type of behavior will bring variance, but it will also increase his chances to hit a big shot. A TKO is still in play.
He’s nowhere near a priority for me just because if the fight hits round two, we could already be screwed on lack of volume. But if you have a larger portfolio to play with, Silva is still a viable mix-in.
Allen at 7.1k only interests me a tiny bit.
I think he has paths to winning, and certainly to making this fight competitive. But he just doesn’t produce a lot of volume.
He doesn’t wrestle often and he may not land 70 strikes in the fight. His last win on DK scored 54 points. At 7.1k, any type of win is good so Allen will be in play as a low-end, salary saving option. I’ll mix him in occasionally when I need the salary relief.
But I do think his base scoring is ugly here and I don’t really want to buy in. He’s +650 to win ITD which is bad. He lacks floor and ceiling. His style is good enough to produce competitive rounds but he’ll be a low-end target due to his fantasy limitations.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight Odds: Nurmagomedov -1438, Figueiredo +866
Odds to end ITD: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Nurmagomedov 9.9k, Figueiredo 6.3k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar Nurmagomedov will be looking to take a step towards another UFC title fight with a win over Deiveson Figueiredo this weekend.
Umar is a world class grappler. He can strike a bit too though. On the feet, he is very kick oriented and a range controller. I never considered him to have much power, but he did knock out Raoni Barcelos so maybe he does. I think his striking is good and he has a lot of speed. He lands 4.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.04 in return so his metrics are great.
Umar just seems to be very hard to hit too. He is defending strikes at 60 percent and stays out of danger with his understanding of range and in / out movement. He has been tagged a couple of times but he’s generally hard to land on.
Umar is a really skilled grappler. He lands 4.30 takedowns per 15 minutes and is one of the best grapplers in this weight class. He has good takedowns and is fully capable of getting the back and riding position. He likes to mat return from the back, kind of like Merab Dvalishvilli. He also can put hooks in and end fights with a RNC, and he did just that against Brian Kelleher and Sergey Morozov. Almost all of Umar’s finishes have been by RNC so that is his greatest finishing threat.
Umar’s defensive grappling is also very strong. Merab landed 7 of 30 takedowns attempted and only obtained 2:22 of control vs Umar. That basically shows that Umar has elite defensive grappling considering he only conceded 2:22 of control on 30 takedown attempts from the best volume wrestler in the sport’s history in Merab.
I also consider Umar’s cardio borderline elite. He gassed out Cory Sandhagen and he only mildly slowed down against Merab who usually breaks everyone.
Umar will be taking on former UFC champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Figueiredo is very dangerous and we all know that. He can hurt just about anyone and has a dangerous guillotine choke. He is also super athletic and is well-rounded. He can strike, he can wrestle.
However, his metrics aren’t great. He only lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.54 in return. He does land 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes though. He only defends takedowns at 57 percent, but is an explosive and capable scrambler.
I always just get nervous picking Figuereido because he tends to have low moments of activity on the feet. We have seen him lose fights because of this. However, he can always make up for that by hurting opponents with explosive movements. Those moments are hard to predict so I have always struggled picking his fights. However, I think we all know the drill with him and know the risks of picking for him or against him.
I do think Figueiredo has declined though. He got battered by Yan and Sandhagen recently. Both of those guys are very good fighters but I just feel like Figuereido has been declining for a couple of years now. Even in his most recent upset win against Montel Jasckson, he was outlanded 30-23 in significant strikes and only won that fight because Jackson decided to not do anything.
As far as this matchup goes, I just think Umar is better everywhere. On the feet, Fig can maybe threaten with some danger but Umar is a way busier striker. If Umar just decides to let strikes go, he should be winning rounds.
Umar is also a better wrestler. Fig is competent defensively but if Umar just decides to volume wrestle, Umar can probably land some takedowns and consolidate some control. Umar could honestly dominate on the mat if Fig tires as well.
So overall, this is a tough matchup for Fig. Umar is more skilled everywhere and has higher offensive output in all areas. So Umar should win this fight as long as he just avoids the random danger that Fig will threaten with.
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On DraftKings, Nurmagomedov is priced up to 9.9k which is one of the highest prices in recent memory.
He may be deserving of it though, and in seven UFC wins, Nurmagomedov has never scored less than 104.9 DK points. We’ve seen him top out at 127 and 118 too, and both of those victories came in three-round decisions.
Essentially, it puts Nurmagomedov into a category of his own in terms of safety. He is extremely likely to win. He is extremely likely to score 100 points, whether or not it comes ITD. And he also carries a moderate ceiling.
In this particular matchup, I think he can dominate Figueiredo on the mat, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win ITD. He is only +120 to win ITD for what it’s worth, but 4+ takedowns and a mid-round finish is very much on the table.
At this price tag, it’s still impossible to say he’s a must play. He could smash, score 105 points, and come nowhere close to the optimal. There aren’t a ton of intriguing underdogs on this slate, and spending 9.9k definitely makes building the rest of your lineup more difficult.
I view Nurmagomedov as one of, if not the best fantasy play on this slate outright, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll end up on the optimal lineup. In larger fields, it’s definitely worth building without him, hunting that mid-9k range which will save you salary on the bottom end.
But if you have the salary available, Nurmagomedov is probably worth it. He could still be among the top overall scorers this week, and in smaller fields where you may not need the pure optimal, his value increases. I’ll play Nurmagomedov when I can fit him but at 9.9k he may simply fall more into the secondary category.
Figueiredo is priced down to 6.3k and I don’t think I’ll be playing him this week.
He is +866 to win and +1300 to win ITD. He isn’t likely to land takedowns, and he isn’t likely to land many total strikes.
He could randomly hurt Nurmagomedov, who has been knocked down multiple times. But even then, Figueiredo needs to finish the fight. I don’t see it as a likely outcome.
You can target Figueiredo on a small percentage of teams in large-field tournaments but I’d much rather pay up for more win equity and I’d be fine to cross Figueiredo out of constructions this week given the difficulty of the matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nurmagomedov by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=High)
Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev
Fight Odds: Gautier -889, Pulyaev +616
Odds to end ITD: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: Gautier 9.7k, Pulyaev 6.5k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues as the surging middleweight prospect Ateba Gautier clashes with Andrey Pulyaev in what should be a fun scrap for as long as it lasts. Let’s dive in.
Ateba Gautier had a killer start to his UFC career in 2025, going 3-0 with three round one finishes in the year. Aside from his obvious power inside the Octagon, Gautier’s build, size and physique make him an intimidating opponent to stand in front of. The 23-year-old Cameroonian native has done his rounds around the world, training at Manchester Top Team, Syndicate MMA and the Mexican PI, all looking to improve his technique and skill set.
The raw power is definitely evident with Gautier. He has eight of his nine wins coming by way of KO, with 78% of those wins coming by way of round one KO. The level of opposition has been a bit weak, taking on fighters who are a combined 0-7 inside the UFC, but he has disposed of them accordingly, dismantling them all with strikes in the very first round.
“The Silent Assassin’s” gameplan is pretty evident. He wants to pressure forward and knock your head into the third row. He averages 6.57 strikes landed per minute at a 60% accuracy. When he gets you along the cage, he is unloading everything he has and his power is enough to knock out even the most durable fighters. However, there are still questions to be answered from range as his style seems to be more built to win moments than minutes.
On the ground, there does seem to be a bit of a deficiency in his skillset as that caused him to lose his only pro bout. Even in his Contender Series bout, he gave up five minutes of control time and did lose optics there. However, the first level of TDD looks good at 92%, as he relies primarily on that physicality to keep himself upright. I do think that he is improving the ground game in his training and he is still young. But If you are looking to beat him, that’s probably the best path to do so.
Overall, Gautier is a devastating striker who the UFC is looking to market. With his youth, physique and knockout streak, he is someone the UFC is looking to promote and someone to keep your eye on in this division, especially if he is able to shore up that ground game.
Andrey Pulyaev may not have had the same type of hype around him coming into the UFC but a round two KO win against Nick Klein last August helped put his name on the map. He is now 1-1 inside the UFC with that sole loss coming to the streaking Christian Leroy Duncan.
The 28-year-old Russian is now 10-3 with his pro career starting in 2022. He has been active and continuing to improve his skillset. He is a primary striker and with his 6 ‘4” frame, he uses his length to set up shots and win minutes along the outside. He can be patient at times, which caused him to only land 18 strikes against CLD in 15 minutes, but with an 80% finish rate, we know he is able to finish bouts when needed.
He averages 3.81 strikes landed per minute at a 60% accuracy. He has the ability to strike well from range but we have also seen him finished regionally, leaving us with more to learn about his striking defense and durability.
On the mat, he is able to be taken down and controlled. He has been controlled for more than 4:45 minutes in each one of his three fights under the UFC banner and with a 64% TDD, is something his opponents have been utilizing against him so far. With that being said, he has not been submitted as a pro and actually has some submission wins of his own, but can evidently lose minutes off his back.
Even on the feet, although he has solid technique, volume and range on his strikes from the outside, he isn’t blowing anyone away with power or combinations, he seems to be pretty meat and potatoes with his striking. Despite this, he is a solid, well-rounded offensive fighter who can be taken down and pressured but still more has to be learned about his defensive tendencies.
He projects as a low to mid-level middleweight who can prey on low level fighters with clear weaknesses but will be beaten by the higher echelon fighters of the division. I would like to see him improve his get up game and ability to pressure forward before trusting him at a high clip.
At the end of the day this does seem like a clear set-up fight for the super hot prospect in Gautier. He is the talk of the town with his power and first round knockouts and Pulyaev is not someone whom the UFC are too high on after he ran away from CLD in that lacklustre performance. With how they are building up Gautier, it’s only right to expect him to pressure forward and KO Pulyaev here. That will be my pick and I do think it’s the most likely outcome, considering we have seen Pulyaev take the back foot and Gautier is content to unload on his opponents against the cage. But I don’t know if it’s as much of a home run spot as the market tends to think here.
Do not get me wrong, I’m picking Gautier, I think he wins. But Pulyaev isn’t THAT garbage. He’s not great, but he’s better than Valentin, Vines and Medina by a decent margin in my opinion.
Although the moments will heavily favour Gautier, Pulyaev can win minutes along the outside with counters and Pulyaev is the more likely grappler of the two. I don’t know if it comes into play with the physicality and danger that comes with closing the distance with Gautier, but something to think about considering how green the 23-year-old Gautier is.
So the pick is Gautier to get another KO and continue rising up the ranks, but not a spot I’m looking to parlay at the price we have and I expect a bit of fight back from the Russian here, in comparison to previous Gautier bouts.
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On DraftKings, Gautier will be a popular target at the expensive 9.7k price tag given his knockout potential.
I am curious HOW popular he will be because not only is 9.7k a super expensive price, but we also have Umar sitting above him at 9.9k. My guess is that coming off three quick knockouts, the public will be fine to pay down to Gautier instead of Umar, but it’s possible one or both come in lower owned than expected, simply due to the pricing.
Regardless, Gautier is a super boom or bust option. He isn’t likely to wrestle and volume won’t matter here. He needs a quick KO to have any shot at the optimal.
The good news is that he’s pushing -900 to win and is -615 to win ITD. He’ll have the best shot to win by RD 1 KO of any fighter on this slate, and that will be the easiest prediction to make.
It makes logical sense. Gautier is a physical freak, with power in his hands. Pulyaev isn’t a good athlete, and probably gets hurt early. He’s been knocked out before.
However, this is the type of spot that always makes me uncomfortable. None of Gautier’s UFC wins mean anything to me. He hasn’t fought a single opponent who is remotely UFC level. He’s also still inexperienced as a pro, with limited cage time in extended fights, and a poor ground game.
Pulyaev isn’t great, but he’s a fine distance striker and experienced in extended fights. He can match and exceed Gautier in volume and he’s better on the mat as a submission grappler. He still might get KOd quickly and it’s hard to trust in him surviving, but it really wouldn’t be that surprising if Pulyaev avoided a couple of big shots and won some minutes.
If you have the salary available, Gautier will rate out as a top option on this slate. He’s very likely to score 100-110 points. I’m just not in love with his window being so reliant on the quick KO, and I also don’t think his fantasy ceiling is as strong as others.
In summary, Gautier likely does secure the KO and scores 100-110, but he’s tough to fit and even if he does reach that number, there are questions about whether it will be enough to be optimal. I don’t mind playing him when I can afford him but don’t see him as a must, and at this price being underweight is a fine strategy.
Pulyaev is priced down to 6.5k and I don’t hate him as a punt. I prefer him over Figueiredo and I think he has a much better shot to win than Figueiredo.
Namanjunas and Allen both rate out a lot better in terms of surviving and landing some strikes, but neither of them are particularly likely to land lots of strikes or win. Pulyaev could match that type of volume if the fight extends. He clearly has less win equity on paper but he might be a touch undervalued here. He’s +700 to win ITD.
I’m not necessarily making the case for Pulyaev to win but he’s a real step up above Gautier’s recent opponents and if he can survive a couple of big punches, we could be on upset alert. Given his super cheap price tag, low ownership, and heavy leverage against Gautier, I don’t mind taking a few chances on Pulyaev this week.
Don’t hold your breath for him but at 6.5k Pulyaev opens up one window to be unique and save salary.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gautier by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas
Fight Odds: Bukauskas -148, Krylov +127
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Bukauskas 8.4k, Krylov 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a clash of high action light heavyweights as Modestas Bukauskas looks to extend his win streak against veteran Nikita Krylov. Let’s dive in.
Nikita Krylov has fallen on tough times recently. Once a top ranked contender in the light heavyweight division, Krylov returned after a two year layoff and suffered back-to-back round one finish losses against Bogdan Guskov and Dominick Reyes in 2025. Although the competition is solid, these were the first real KO losses for the Ukrainian and he certainly looked a step behind.
Krylov was once a feared competitor in this division, with wins over the likes of Gustafson, Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, and even taking Magomed Ankalaev and Glover to close decisions. He has a heavy hitting karate base with the ability to wrestle. This had him sport a kill or to be killed style inside the Octagon, with 93% of his wins coming inside the distance which includes 82% of his losses.
He fights at a high pace, landing 4.31 strikes per minute to his 2.58 strikes absorbed, while also landing 2.17 TDs per 15 minutes. However, that high pace has also made him slow down and get finished late in a few spots too. And since the two year layoff where he had shoulder surgery, he has looked a bit slower.
The same dangerous blitzes he showed prior in his career are now a bit more predictable and the 33 year old with 41 professional bouts has shown signs of decline. I do think he’s always dangerous. He can land TDs and implement damage from top position, and his hooks on the feet carry power as well, especially if he has you trapped with your back to the cage. But the version of Krylov we saw after the layoff who struggles to close distance, performs blitzes that are slow and predictable just isn’t the same as the rising prospect we saw prior.
I know Krylov has the skill to be at the top of this division, but I hope he either gets back to his wrestling or is in the gym improving his speed and technique.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Modestas Bukauskas is on a four fight winning streak inside the UFC. This is his second stint with the promotion after going 1-3 in 2021, but he has since worked his way back and is now 6-1 in this second run, with his sole blemish coming via a check hook KO loss to Vitor Petrino in 2024.
Although they are to less trustworthy fighters in Paul Craig, Rafael Cerquiera and Marcin Prachnio, Bukauskas has shown more aggression and has been able to rattle off some finish wins. He actually has a 74% finish rate inside the cage now, with a kill or to be killed mentality as he’s been finished in 83% of his losses.
However, when you think of Bukauskas, you picture a long and rangy kickboxer who is willing to counter along the outside and wait for the perfect shot. He averages just 3.32 strikes landed per minute and is looking to draw his opponents into his counter shots.
That patience has its pros and cons, as it has helped him get some wins but has been a tougher watch for some of the fans. However, most recently we have noticed more urgency from the “baltic gladiator” as he is starting to use his 6’3” frame, pushing forwards and landing big shots along the cage.
He is mainly a striker, looking to use straight shots along the outside and does his best work on the front foot. Defensively, he can be hit and his durability is in question with most of his losses coming by way of KO, albeit to some heavy hitters.
On the mat, I do think there is a bit of a hole in his game. His first layer of TD defense is solid, with a 80% TDD inside the Octagon, including defending all four TD attempts by Cutelaba in their match-up. However, every single person who’s taken him down has had multiple minutes of ground control and do think he can be stalled on bottom by solid wrestlers.
At the end of the day, I still think Modestas is a fighter who is improving and building on his skillset. I like the increase in aggression, the physicality and the rangy strikes he brings from distance. I still have my concerns about his volume, ground game and durability, but with the proper adjustments I do think he has the base to be a solid fringe top-15 fighter.
At the end of the day, this would’ve been a completely different matchup if it was a few years ago. In fact, if you told me in 2021 that 1-3 Bukauskas would be a large favorite over top ranked Krylov, I would’ve laughed at you.
Lots of money has come in on Krylov and I do think it’s because of the old version of both fighters we have in our minds. We know Krylov has the aggression, grappling and overall skillset to beat Bukauskas here. But the truth is, this is a different version of each fighter. Sure, if Krylov is able to get his ground game going early, he could have some success. But he has looked slow, his chin is starting to deteriorate and I don’t think he has the ability to sustain a high pace enough to win extended minutes.
The more I think about it, although I like Krylov’s skillset, he has just looked so slow and predictable, I’m starting to think Bukauskas will find the chin with a counter. So give me Bukauskas, the man on the come up who is continuously improving, showing more aggression and has more will to win, to out speed, out strike and win minutes against a fighter who seems to be on his way out. I have to favor the overall striking, speed and minute winning of Bukauskas here, although the ground game is something I’d like to see improved if I were betting on Modestas here.
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On DraftKings, this is a gross but intriguing fantasy fight given the likelihood it ends inside the distance.
The fight itself is -600 to end ITD and with mid-range prices, a finish on either side would allow the winner to contend for the optimal. My guess is that we’ll see this fight gain a fair amount of public ownership too, as the stars and scrubs builds will force us into this mid-range.
Bukauskas is coming off two KO wins in his last three fights where he’s eclipsed 100 points, while Krylov is coming off back-to-back KO losses. Bukauskas is -105 to win ITD which is decent.
At 8.4k, Bukauskas will rate out well for upside, but it’s important to note that he’s ultra boom or bust. We have a lot of those types on this card which makes things difficult to parse, but Bukauskas is so low volume typically that I tend to just fade him.
He’s never landed 60 sig. strikes in any of his four UFC decisions. He’s only taken down one of 11 opponents. He needs a quick finish or he will be bust. This fight is gross because that kind of style doesn’t make me want to invest, but in a matchup that’s -600 to end ITD, in the mid-range, it seems dumb to avoid it as well.
There’s no right or wrong answer here but Bukauskas will rate out pretty well for upside at his price tag. I do not consider him safe. I’m not excited to be heavy on him. I’ll aim to be near the field percentage and not have to sweat it super hard one way or the other.
Krylov is a decent underdog selection at 7.8k.
He will be one of the most picked underdogs to win on this card, and although his recent losses may cap his public ownership, he seems like one of the more obvious dog spots this week.
Perhaps Krylov is truly slowing down, perhaps his recent KOs are just due to variance. It’s hard to tell. He is more active than Bukauskas historically and he’s a much better grappler. He has finishing equity as well and is +140 to win ITD.
If I hadn’t seen his recent KO losses, I’d definitely pick Krylov to win here. I still might. But it’s very hard to be confident given his recent form.
The fight is still competitive on paper and Krylov is one of a few dogs with win equity at +123. Again, he just seems like an obvious target.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up more popular than Bukauskas either, just because he’s one of a couple dogs who the public will feel OK with, and he saves $600 from Bukauskas. He’s a strong secondary option on this type of slate and I’ll probably end up with moderate exposure alongside the field.
There’s no reason to trust Kyrlov but he has a higher ceiling than Bukauskas given his activity and grappling, and he still rates out well for finishing purposes. I wouldn’t mind being a touch overweight if the field was scared off.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Krylov by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson
Fight Odds: Johnson -171, Perez +145
Odds to end ITD: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson 8.7k, Perez 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
Two UFC veterans square off in the flyweight division as Alex Perez gets a quick turnaround versus Charles Johnson.
It’s a story as old as time – I thought Perez looked quite good against Asu Almabayev in his last matchup and I thought he was a pretty sneaky underdog value at that time. I’ve always believed in Perez’ skill set.
Despite having some form of success through two rounds, Perez launched himself into a guillotine choke to start the third round and that was the end of his night. He’s now won one of his last six fights and probably gets cut if he loses again.
With that said, his competition has been incredible. He’s fought Figueiredo, Pantoja, Mokaev, Nicolau, Taira and Almabayev, and I still think he’s deserving a spot in the upper echelon of the division. But he makes too many mistakes and clearly can’t sustain a championship form.
But it’s hard for me to deny the skill set again. Perez is a decent boxer and a decent wrestler. He can throw with power at times, and he can throw with volume at times. He can throw nasty leg kicks at times. His defensive wrestling is strong.
It will be a fun matchup against Charles Johnson who is coming off a banger knockout win over Lone’er Kavanagh and could honestly work his way into title contention with a strong 2026.
Johnson was nearly cut from the UFC after losing three fights in a row in 2023, but he’s now won five of his last six, only falling to Ramazan Temirov in a fight he could have also won.
Johnson is a really solid boxer and lengthy fighter for this division, and he’ll always have the ability to compete in striking rounds. One of Johnson’s issues has always been that he starts slow and doesn’t push enough of a pace to clearly win rounds, so his fights are often competitive.
Even in two of those three losses in 2023, Johnson really could have turned the tide fully had there been one more round, or a few more minutes. And even in his most recent win, Johnson was outstruck 36 to 14 in the first round. He may simply be a better five-round fighter if he ever gets the chance.
Johnson also has mixed results on the mat. He has a wrestling background but has given up takedowns at times and defends at 66 percent historically. It’s OK but he can lose occasional minutes there and doesn’t have an incredible amount of top potential.
I think that’s an advantage for Perez in this matchup though I lean toward the two neutralizing each other. Perez does land 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes, with some front headlock series chokes and some ground-and-pound potential.
Perez will be a lot smaller than Johnson here, as Johnson will hold a three inch height edge and five inch reach edge. Perez will likely need to close distance where wrestling may be a decent option.
I do think Perez can land takedowns and I’d project him to land 2-3 over 15 minutes. He could win some minutes on top and possibly threaten for a finish, though I don’t think a submission is very likely. Johnson can scramble up well enough.
So I do expect the winner to still be determined by the striking, where it’s somewhat close but I favor Johnson. He’s just a better distance striker and more effective at longer distances. He averages 4.73 sig. strikes landed per minute while absorbing 3.78 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate. Perez lands 4.16 per minute while absorbing 3.22 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.
The reality is, I think this fight is very likely to be a competitive one. Johnson has round winning tools on the feet but he rarely pulls away. He does have some KO ability but Perez is not an easy fighter to knockout.
Conversely, Perez typically wins ITD and given the size discrepancy, I think he’ll get hit enough to where he’s likely not pulling away either. He probably has outright power advantages here, and wrestling advantages, but those only matter if he can really contain the pocket which will be tough.
Perez should want to kick at the legs of Johnson from distance and the pressure and throw power shots. He could easily win a round or two that way. I think Johnson is more likely to hold the edge with his boxing at distance and probably has an edge down the stretch.
I trust Johnson a little bit more over three rounds at this stage, but I am expecting a pretty competitive fight and wouldn’t be surprised if Perez started hot and Johnson took over late.
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On DraftKings, I may actually still go back to the well here on Perez because my brain is made of rocks.
This slate doesn’t set up well for underdogs and if you want to pay up, you’ll need savings. I feel no confidence whatsoever in Perez, but he probably has the better path to scoring.
Despite idiotically throwing himself into a submission, he had scored 43 DK points in the first two rounds against Almabayev last time out. Had he won (with a third round of action included), he could have pushed 90 DK points.
If he’s going to be Johnson, I’m guessing takedowns are involved again. He’s taken down Taira and Almabayev so I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility he takes Johnson down. Plus, Johnson has been taken down by 10 of 12 UFC opponents.
It still doesn’t equate to a massive ceiling for Perez. He’s only +600 to win ITD. If he loses it probably won’t matter.
But at 7.5k, now especially that the public will be off of him, I can still make the case that he’s a solid secondary target. Someone to mix in when you need salary relief. You don’t need to take a real stand here but I think he’s at least in consideration despite my skepticism of his game.
Johnson at 8.7k doesn’t feel like a great fantasy target and he likely needs an early finish.
The issue is that he’s not an early finish type of guy, and he only has one RD 1 finish in the UFC. He’s coming off a RD 2 though which scored 105 DK points, and that would be enough.
The positive at least is that Johnson throws enough volume to where a mid or late round finish may still keep him alive. A decision won’t cut it though. Johnson is +170 to win ITD which is OK but not spectacular.
Despite all of Perez’ issues, would you believe it if I said he’s never been knocked down? Both of his TKO losses came from weird situations, and otherwise he just dives into submissions. Maybe a sub for Johnson is possible but I’d like that less than a TKO (due to the 10 point KD).
I’m definitely open to playing some Johnson because it FEELS like Perez is just going to die at some point and make some stupid mistake. Johnson picks up late in fights and I wouldn’t be shocked if he hurt Perez.
Johnson isn’t rating out tremendously well though and is still pretty boom or bust. The 8.7k price tag is a bit expensive. He’ll only be a secondary target to me and one I’m hesitant to back heavily, but I can totally understand making him a priority in this lower 8k range and betting against Perez’ form.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez
Fight Odds: Hernandez -161, Johnson +137
Odds to end ITD: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.5k, Johnson 7.7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a clash between two experienced fighters here in Michael Johnson and Alexander Hernandez.
I felt bad for Michael Johnson in his last loss. He was actually performing well and outstriking Carlos Diego Ferreira. He then got knocked into the outer realms of the solar system. It was tough to watch.
However, Johnson followed up that loss with a nice decision win against Darrius Flowers and then a knockout win against Ottman Azaitar. He then most recently won as a huge underdog against Daniel Zellhuber. Johnson used superior speed and boxing to win a clean decision. It was an inspiring and impressive performance by Johnson who is now 39 years old. He definitely showed there is still some fight in him.
Michael Johnson is a sprawl and brawler. We know what he is going to do. He is generally going to try to keep the fight on the feet and look to outbox his opponents.
I consider Johnson a competent striker. He lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.79 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent.
Johnson is mostly a boxer and uses his hands. He has a good jab and 1-2 straight punch combination. He will also throw some good hooks in the pocket as well. He has fast hands and has some power as well. He is also a southpaw and will land a nice inside low kick vs orthodox fighters. Johnson still looks fast even though he is 39 years old and generally carries a speed advantage over his opponents.
Johnson doesn’t look to wrestle much and only attempts about one takedown per fight. Coming from a wrestling background, he actually has a good double leg but we rarely see it as he is more interested in striking. We saw him land some takedowns against Flowers but I really only think he will look to outwrestle very weak grapplers.
Johnson defends takedowns at 81 percent. I actually think he has very good first layer takedown defense especially in open space. His problem is when people get him against the cage or when people chain various takedown attempts together.
We have seen Johnson defend takedowns quite well in some fights and not so well in others because of this. I also just don’t like him once he is actually grounded. He is good at staying upright because he has good TDD so we don’t see him grounded much. However, he is a bit clueless as a submission grappler and not skilled on the mat.
I generally consider MJ durable, but he is older now and suffering a devastating KO like he did against CDF makes me a bit nervous for him going forward. Still though, he has only been knocked out three times in 31 UFC fights and they came against MASSIVE hitters and good fighters in Justin Gaethje, Josh Emmett, and CDF.
Johnson will be taking on Alexander Hernandez. Hernandez is an okay fighter. He lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.50 in return. He is capable of landing some big shots with some blitzes. He has some speed too, but other than that I don’t think he is particularly good or skilled on the feet.
I do think Hernandez’s overall pace on the feet has looked better in a few of his more recent matchups though. I also think he is mildly improved as a technical striker as well on the feet. He obviously has some pop early too and is capable of early knockout.
Hernandez has struggled going through adversity in fights. We have seen him broken on numerous occasions including by Billy Quarantillo, Drew, Dober, and Donald Cerrone.
Again though, I do think he has looked tougher down the stretch in his last few fights.
As a grappler, Hernandez is competent but not great. He comes from a wrestling background. He lands 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. He outwrestled Olivier Aubin-Mercier to a grinding decision which was his best 15-minute performance to date. He also took Drew Dober down three times but couldn’t keep Dober on the mat and was eventually knocked out. I do think Hernandez can outgrapple weak to below average grapplers in this division but that’s about it.
Defensively as a grappler, Hernandez is pretty solid. He defends takedowns at 73 percent. He is not very easy to take and hold down, but he can get his back taken and beat on the mat and body triangled especially when he tires out.
Overall Hernandez is a fine fighter. He can strike and grapple a bit and he has some early KO upside. I just do not fully trust his cardio or ability to fight through adversity but again I do think he has improved both of those to a degree. I just doubt it is no longer an issue anymore either.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is a close one. I can see the case for Hernandez here and I honestly understand why he is the favorite. Hernandez has massive power and could hurt an aging MJ. I think Hernandez is more likely to win by early knockout.
Hernandez also is a better mat grappler and if he gets on top of MJ, he could have success. I tend to think these guys will duke it out on the feet though as both have solid takedown defense. I also think there is just a chance MJ looks declined due to age. So favoring Hernandez is reasonable.
Johnson still kind of looks himself though and I have a feeling this won’t be easy for Hernandez, win or lose. Johnson still has some speed, fast hands, and boxing. I honestly think Johnson is more skillful than Hernandez. The Hernandez we have seen struggle on the feet vs numerous guys could surely get pieced up here. So I honestly think Johnson has a chance here.
I still do think this will be competitive though. Hernandez is younger and hits hard and can surely compete here. I think we just get a competitive striking fight. I do think Hernandez may be a little more reliant on power shots to land as Johnson is probably the better round winner. The power of Hernandez showing up or not showing up will likely decide who wins this fight.
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On DraftKings, this is a mediocre mid-range fight that’s a bit difficult to cap.
Neither fighter is particularly trustworthy, and neither fighter is a guaranteed fantasy smash in a win. So there are a variety of ways this could go.
Hernandez is priced at 8.5k and either needs a knockout, or he needs wrestling domination. He’s capable of both but I’m not sure either path is likely.
Hernandez is only +220 to win ITD here, which isn’t terrible, but it’s not suggestive of a super likely outcome. Johnson has randomly been knocked out a few times and Hernandez has power, but I feel Johnson is more technical.
I’d be more interested in Hernandez’ wrestling path if he goes there, since Johnson can look awful on the ground at times. Hernandez could land 2-3 takedowns, and beat Johnson up a bit on the mat. Hernandez has only taken down one of his past seven opponents though..
So ultimately, Hernandez doesn’t really rate out that well. He has paths to winning and to scoring but they aren’t extremely likely. We’ll likely be forced into this range by default, and mixing him in as a secondary play seems reasonable. But I’m not super excited by Hernandez and lean toward a mediocre fantasy score even if he does win.
Johnson is priced at 7.7k and could be semi-popular because we’re desperate for savings, and he’s coming off a nice win.
That nice win only scored 72 DK points though, which is the problem. Johnson won’t wrestle here, and volume only gets you so far. I would guess he likely does not 10x on DK even if he does win.
As far as KO upside, Johnson is +285 to win ITD which is fine. Hernandez can be hurt but I think he’s much more vulnerable in high paced fights, which is not really Johnson’s game. Johnson has some pop but I’m not excited to bet on that KO path.
At 7.7k, sure, Johnson is a viable secondary target. He can be mixed in for salary savings and he has a path to winning via striking. I’m not sold on his fantasy upside though and I wouldn’t be excited to back him above the field in this spot.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman
Fight Odds: Hokit -224, Freeman +188
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Hokit 9k, Freeman 7.2k
Weight Class: HW
I’m fairly interested in this HW prospect matchup between Josh Hokit and Denzel Freeman, who were both successful in their respective UFC debuts.
Hokit won in dominant fashion, knocking out Max Gimenis in only 56 seconds on November 8th to move his professional record to 7-0. Of those wins, four have come by knockout and three have come by submission.
Hokit comes from an All-American wrestling background at Fresno State, where he also played football and was eventually signed by the 49ers to play fullback. His NFL career didn’t pan out and he instead started training at the Jackson Wink camp to become a full-time fighter.
His MMA career thus far has been quite dominant. He’s run through the majority of his competition, generally taking them down and pounding them out though most recently, we saw him cleanly knock out Gimenis on the feet.
It’s not a performance I take much away from to be honest, as Gimenis is a BJJ specialist who has already been knocked out before. While I did like Hokit’s aggression and speed, and willingness to throw, I don’t necessarily consider him a knockout artist at this level.
Instead, I still view Hokit as a primary wrestler who will typically want to push a pace, land takedowns, and eventually overwhelm opponents. In the HW division, that can carry you far.
I think ultimately, Hokit is a decent fighter. I don’t think he’s a stud wrestler with championship upside, but he can shoot basic single legs and double legs, and face a bit of adversity. He attempted 13 takedowns on DWCS and landed six of them, so he’s not going to gas out after just a couple of minutes, which is important.
He’s not a great control wrestler though, nor is he a great submission grappler. So although he can land takedowns, I’m skeptical that he easily wins fights in the upper echelon of the division because opponents will simply stand up. And then we have to deal with his striking which I think will clearly be exposed at some point.
For now, enjoy the brash personality of Hokit and expect him to wrestle his way to some lower-division success.
His next opponent is Denzel Freeman who, unlike Hokit, delivered a win in very boring fashion in his UFC debut. That fight against Bujlo was one of the most likely fights to end ITD but instead of a car crash that was largely expected, both men decided to play safely at distance and chose to only throw the occasional strike.
I blame Bujlo for that more than Freeman, as Bujlo is a pure grappler and didn’t have much business striking, while Freeman was more expected to play at distance and aim to defend takedowns.
Freeman is now 7-1 professionally at age 34, earning four wins by knockout and one by submission.
Freeman has an interesting resume. He has a background in wrestling, and was a two-time state placer in high school, and a three-time national qualifier in college. After college, he joined the WWE as a “professional wrestler.” Later in life, Freeman joined military school in an attempt to be an officer and join the Marine Corps.
In 2021, Freeman made his Senior Greco-Roman debut in the US Last Chance Olympic Team Trials Qualifier, where he made the finals but eventually lost.
He picked up his professional MMA career after that where he made a couple appearances in the PFL Challenger Series, and later in LFA where he most recently won the title.
Freeman is a legit athlete. He is thick and powerful. He fights out of Southpaw and likes a karate style stance where he can bounce around the feet. He’s landed some nasty rear kicks which have resulted in devastating knockouts.
He can also wrestle, and I’ve mostly seen him just run over guys with a standard double leg. He can actually grapple OK and take the back. His ground-and-pound is strong too.
His one loss was a split decision in PFL where most people thought he won. It was a competitive stand-up affair for the most part.
I’m interested in Freeman. I don’t think he has a championship ceiling or anything, but he’s a real athlete and well-rounded. I do worry that he’s not good enough in any one area of the game to dominate though.
Still, he can probably take down weak opponents of which there are a lot in this HW division. He can land some big bombs on the feet too and keep up a little bit per minute. He might get hurt occasionally and I think he can lose decisions too.
This matchup really intrigues me because clearly, Freeman is the best opponent Hokit will have ever faced. Freeman is the best wrestler Hokit will have faced. Freeman should be able to withstand some of Hokit’s game and potentially give him a really good test.
At the same time, after watching Freeman fight passively against Bujlo, I have to expect he’ll fight with a similar gameplan against Hokit. It will be Hokit who will want to press forward, attempt takedowns at a high rate, and ideally use his wrestling to win. While Freeman is a capable offensive wrestler, that seems like a much more difficult path to victory against Hokit than defending takedowns and striking at distance.
We don’t have a large sample of Freeman defending takedowns, but he was taken down in his most recent LFA fight which is a concern here. He got peeled down with a single leg which Hokit is very capable of, and based on those LFA sequences alone, I have to believe Hokit can have success.
Especially considering he’s shown to shoot double digit takedowns, I think it’s quite likely Hokit can get Freeman down here. At the same time, I don’t think he can hold Freeman down easily. Freeman is a fine scrambler and Hokit isn’t very skilled at taking the back, and Freeman will be one of the best athletes he will have fought.
So my best guess actually is that Hokit is forced to attempt a lot of takedowns, like we saw on DWCS, and although he will take Freeman down, he won’t keep him down for long periods of time. It could easily be enough though. Freeman will be forced to play defensively and I’m just unsure if he’ll be able to produce offense of his own.
I think Hokit is likely to win rounds here with wrestling, some ground-and-pound, and simply by being the fighter who is going on the offensive.
If Freeman can defend takedowns and scramble, he is the better striker. He may also be slower than Hokit but he is more technically sound, and could beat him at distance. Hokit has shown some poor moments when he’s been forced to strike, like on DWCS, which is why I expect him to be outclassed soon enough.
I just think to beat Hokit, you need to bring the game to him. Clash with him, defend takedowns, and beat him up. I’m very worried Freeman will allow the fight to come to him, in which case, he probably just gets beaten by activity.
This is a great fight though really for the HW division which is rare, and I’m interested to watch. Freeman is good enough to pull off the upset and even has some offensive wrestling upside he chooses to use it. But I do trust Hokit as the more offensive fighter, and my guess is shooting that many takedowns will lead to enough ground success to get his hand raised.
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On DraftKings, there is definitely some risk to this fight but it’s one I’m willing to target.
Hokit especially looks like a fighter with moderate upside, and I worry he could be popular coming off a 139 point score.
Honestly, you could choose to come in light on Hokit due to popularity alone. Him knocking out some low-level BJJ guy means nothing in relation to this fight, and I don’t expect it to look the same. I also don’t think Hokit easily holds Freeman down based on matchup analysis, so there are ways for this to go wrong.
But if Hokit is going to attempt another 10-15 takedowns, he could smash. He would have scored 123 in his Contender Series fight with a RD 2 finish. He is -105 to win ITD in this matchup so he’ll rate out pretty well.
Essentially, you have these guys priced above Hokit who are pretty boom/bust and dependent on a KO to score 100-110. Hokit could easily clear that and be among the highest scorers on the slate due to his aggressive wrestling style. It feels like we need to be in on him because of it.
I’m not super confident that Hokit wins and I’d like to fade him in the future, but he’ll rate out as a pretty strong target this week and I’d like moderate exposure personally.
Freeman is priced down to 7.2k and mostly works as a leverage target.
A lot of people were big on him in his debut (me) and got burned by it. He put up 49 DK points in a win, in one of the worst fights of the year. I don’t think he’ll be super popular this week.
I’m also not sold he carries a ceiling in this matchup. If he wins, it could just be because he defends takedowns, scrambles up and barely wins on the feet. The result could be just as bad as his debut.
But if you tell me Freeman wins, even a low scoring win, I guess I want exposure. The leverage alone is enough. In theory he could win by TKO too, and carries a +285 ITD line which is OK. He also could wrestle.
I’m not super excited about Freeman’s fantasy potential in this matchup and won’t be super in on him, but he seems one like a decent underdog target, especially so when you factor in the leverage against Hokit and general variance/upside in the heavyweight division.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hokit by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman
Fight Odds: Smotherman -197, Turcios +167
Odds to end ITD: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Smotherman 8.6k, Turcios 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
When the UFC launched its deal with Paramount+, there was no doubt that future stars Ricky Turcios and Cameron Smotherman would be among the first to grace the platform.
Smotherman and Turcios have combined for two wins in their last eight attempts, and in reality, this is probably a loser leaves town matchup, but it still might be a fun one as Turcios usually brings pacing and pressure.
Turcios isn’t a technically strong fighter in any capacity, but he’s got a big heart, and fights at a high pace. He’s exactly the type to break an opponent after losing some initial minutes, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him succeed against Smotherman with that style.
The worst part of Turcios’ game is his takedown defense. It’s awful. He’s defending at 44 percent, and he just tips over way too easily for my liking.
In five UFC matchups, Turcios has been taken down 19 times, which is horrid.
However, Turcios won’t just lie there on his back and give up. He will scramble and even threaten with his own grappling. He actually beat Brady Hiestand who landed six takedowns, and he beat Kevin Natividad who landed seven takedowns.
Even in a submission loss to Raul Rosas last time out, Turcios reversed the position early and had Rosas in a deep RNC.
So while I think opponents can land takedowns, it’s not always the easiest to hold Turcios down or find a finish. And if Turcios is constantly scrambling back to his feet, that can tire opponents out.
I don’t really expect Smotherman to attempt takedowns though, which is arguably a positive for Turcios in this matchup. Smotherman is a primary boxer who has not landed a takedown in any of his four UFC/DWCS bouts.
Regardless, Turcios likes to march forward at a high pace and that’s contributed to him winning fights where his opponents have produced lots of offense as well.
Turcios even won a round against Natividad where Turcios was knocked down because he got right back up and just kept marching forward, eventually putting Natividad in a terrible position on the mat.
The bottom line is that Turcios is a pace fighter. He has terrible defense and he can’t wrestle, but he will not quit. So you either have to put him out, or outlast him, and both of those paths are complicated.
Smotherman made his UFC debut in 2024 as a short-notice fill-in against Jake Hadley, and surprisingly won as a +400 underdog.
Smotherman basically just outboxed Hadley for three rounds, landing 96 significant strikes to Hadley’s 60. I suppose it’s not too shocking of an outcome considering Hadley is very poorly processed and specializes as a submission grappler, but Smotherman didn’t rate out as a strong prospect either and he looked fairly comfortable in those boxing exchanges.
In his sophomore performance, Smotherman was outclassed by Serhiy Sidey, getting taken down five times while the striking exchanges were largely competitive. Smotherman actually did OK defending, and only allowed those five takedowns on 12 attempts, while only yielding four minutes of control. Sidey had him in a deep d’arce choke at one point where Smotherman survived, and also threatened with back hooks on a couple of occasions.
Smotherman basically limited the wrestling as best he could, but it still wasn’t enough. He was fairly flatfooted on the feet too, but still had some success in the pocket and mid-range with his hands.
Most recently, Smotherman lost a decision to Ricky Simon, giving up a few takedowns and more than nine minutes of control, though he had some boxing moments late.
Smotherman is now 12-6, and he’s earned six wins by TKO and one by submission. He was previously KOd in about a minute on the Contender Series in 2023, by Charalampos Grigoriou who has already crashed out of the promotion.
After that, he fought a few times on the regionals and won, which included two third-round finishes and a split decision, and didn’t look particularly great. I generally just consider him a boxer, who’s capable enough in that particular area of the game, and largely weak elsewhere.
Smotherman has been pretty inconsistent with his volume but to his credit, landing 96 sig. strikes in your debut is solid. If he can keep up that work rate, I will like him more as his round winning equity will be stronger. He does carry a bit of power, but I would not label him a tremendous power striker and he only has a couple of early KOs on his record.
Again to be fair, he does have a few late finishes, and his cardio looks pretty decent. He’s still been KOd early a couple of times and I’m not sure he’s much more likely to land a big shot than opponents are to land on him.
As a wrestler, Smotherman looks mediocre defensively and it doesn’t seem to be a path of his offensively.
His first-level takedown defense can be OK at times, but he looks somewhat weak on his back and he’s been put in bad positions on the regionals. I would expect a strong wrestler to take him down and potentially get in dominant positions, and I’m also not expecting him to land many takedowns of his own.
So for now, Smotherman rates out as a mediocre boxer who is somewhat inconsistent with both volume and power. I do think he can win boxing based fights and potentially hurt opponents, but he’ll get hurt occasionally too, outwrestled, and will probably struggle against opponents whom he can’t easily access the pocket.
This is a pretty gross matchup but the matchup dynamics are straightforward to me. On the feet, Turcios will bring pressure and volume, but Smotherman will be the more technical boxer and will likely have an edge in optics.
Turcios is really tough and durable, but he’s been knocked down in two of his last three fights. He still won one of them, but Smotherman should have an advantage in the damage department, and on the feet, I would favor him moderately over three rounds.
With that said, Smotherman was KOd in a minute on DWCS so nothing is certain, but Turcios isn’t really a knockout artist and he lacks physicality.
Where I think Turcios has an advantage is on the mat, and via pacing. He’s simply not a good wrestler and his lack of physicality really hurts him, but he probably will attempt 5-10 takedowns in this spot and Smotherman has been taken down by all three of his UFC opponents.
While I like some of his defense, he can be flattened, he can put in dangerous positions, and Turcios is pretty capable on the mat. He messed up in his last fight against Sopaj, falling off the back twice, but he still did get the back multiple times. I wouldn’t be shocked if Turcios could take the back here.
And it just becomes an issue of pacing where Turcios will not quit and will not stop coming forward, even if he’s hurt and tired. It can wear down opponents, and he has a path to victory with that pressure, especially if he can land takedowns with any consistency.
I do think the opposite is true where if Turcios is getting tired late and cannot land takedowns, Smotherman could hurt him on the feet and maybe even secure a finish.
I wouldn’t be excited to bet on Smotherman here, but I’ll reluctantly pick him to win. Turcios is landing takedowns at 20 percent and I’m just not sold he can actually land those takedowns with consistency. On the feet, I expect the damage and optics to favor Smotherman and I like his cardio enough as well to keep up with Turcios late. It is a good test for him though.
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On DraftKings, this is a pretty gross matchup but I’m somewhat interested.
Turcios just brings this reckless pace to where if he wins, he usually scores well and in losses, his opponents can score well too. Smotherman doesn’t necessarily fit that mold though.
Smotherman is priced at 8.6k and probably needs a knockout. He scored 69 DK points in his only UFC win, so the path to a bust is very clear. I would guess that if he wins, he will bust.
But Turcios has been knocked down in two of his last three fights, and Smotherman has some power. I could see a TKO happening. Smotherman is only +310 to win ITD though so it’s really hard to trust.
Ultimately Smotherman will rate out as a very boom or bust target, with a lean toward the bust side. I don’t expect him to carry a lot of public ownership though, and view him more as an acceptable contrarian option.
We’ll find ourselves in this mid-range often and pivoting onto Smotherman can help you be unique while giving you a chance at upside. It probably won’t work out but a KO is viable enough for me to take a few shots.
Turcios at 7.6k has clear upside in a win.
In his two UFC wins, Turcios has scored 119 and 113 DK points. He is very active on the mat and can accrue points with control and total strikes.
This isn’t a bad matchup for him either and he’s only +167 to win. We’ve noted Smotherman’s defensive grappling questions. It’s very possible Turcios wins this fight with grappling exchanges, and therefore, he has a real shot at the optimal lineup.
He’s just not a very good fighter and it feels gross to bet on him in any sizable way. I am still going to pick him to lose and I’d feel bad being heavy on this fight and watching him fail.
The slate just doesn’t set up well for underdogs and I do think Turcios is live, with a moderate DraftKings ceiling. I don’t mind him for salary savings at 7.6k and I wouldn’t mind being a bit above the field if the field will be scared off.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Smotherman by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ty Miller vs. Adam Fugitt
Fight Odds: Miller -452, Fugitt +335
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Miller 9.3k, Fugitt 6.9k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The first fight of 2026 is here! We get the card (and year) started with the UFC debut of prospect Ty Miller as he takes on veteran Adam Fugitt. Let’s dive in!
Ty Miller made his debut in the first week of the Contender Series last year and instantly looked like a prospect to keep your eye on. Fighting out of New Mexico, “Thriller” Miller has kept his 6-0 record perfect, fighting in solid regional organizations such as CFFC and LFA.
There, he has scored four wins by decisions and two by KO for a mediocre 33% finish rate. But don’t let that poor finish rate deter you from the fact that Miller can be vicious inside the Octagon. He has a large 6’2” frame for the division with a long 77.5” reach which he uses to his advantage, especially with his clean 1-2’s down the middle.
In his Contender Series matchup, he attempted 251 strikes from range and although he only landed 89 of them, his speed and boxing technicality was on display. He took on a very solid fighter in Jimmy Drago with a bit of a cult following on the regional scene and won by decision. He was able to show good defense, solid output and pressure, and the ability to sustain this pace for all 15 minutes.
He did largely target the head, only landing 9 body shots and 1 leg kick, but his controlled attack allowed him to win exchanges from range, stay safe throughout the bout and even hurt and almost finish the super durable Drago. He defended shots at 70% and was able to neutralize a pretty solid opponent.
Offensively, Miller is a solid boxer with good straight shots and plenty of weapons. He’s able to fight dirty in the clinch, landing knees and elbows, but he does his best work from range where his speed and straight shots down the pipe are able to win optics over his slower opponents. He is able to parry his opponents shots well and work into counters, and has looked very fluid on the feet.
On the mat we haven’t seen that much. He has been able to work up to his feet from what I’ve seen, and he typically has the physicality and size to outwork people in the clinch, but he also hasn’t fought anyone who I would say is levels above him on the mat.
I do think I want to see more from Miller, as he hasn’t been tested by the best level of competition. However, from what I can see, he looks to be a solid, high-volume striking prospect who is able to box well, mix up weapons in close and utilize his frame and speed to win optics from range.
Adam Fugitt is a fighter with plenty of heart. I felt as if that’s the perfect way to begin this breakdown as it must be noted. He is constantly counted out and has still managed to rattle off some decent wins in the UFC.
He has been willing to step inside the Octagon with some really solid prospects in Michael Morales, Mike Malott and Islam Dulatov. Although he was finished in all those matchups, when he has taken a step down in competition he has beaten both Yusaku Kinoshita and Josh Quinlan, fighters who people thought had some decent promise in the UFC.
At his core, Fugitt is a well-rounded fighter with the ability to mix it up wherever the fight goes. He has a background in Muay Thai and a brown belt in BJJ. He will mix it up inside the Octagon and often looks to pressure forward if given the option.
Offensively, he is primarily a kicker who will mix it up to all levels. He averages 4.59 strikes landed per minute at a 46% accuracy and although that is not fantastic, it is against a higher level of competition. On the mat, he averages 1.83 TDs per 15 minutes and did manage to take down Morales in his debut, but recently has preferred to strike. He also can be controlled himself on the mat.
The one thing that cannot be disputed is Fugitt is a dog and will fight his heart out for as long as he is able to. What he lacks in skill and technicality, he will give it his all in the Octagon. Is that enough to carry him to the top of the division? No. But if you are a fringe prospect who isn’t fully invested, Fugitt is the perfect test to see if you have what it takes.
Defensively, I do worry about his durability as he has been finished in all his UFC losses and also has a round one KO loss on the regional scene. He can be rocked and since his strikes are often slower than his opponent’s, he can be countered on the feet.
On the mat, he can use his size and physicality to work his way up, but he has been submitted in the UFC and also in grappling promotions, and I worry about that aspect of his game against a true grappler, although we have not seen him fight a pure grappler yet in the UFC.
Overall, Fugitt is a mid tier fighter who may not be the quickest or most technical, but he makes up for it in heart, pressure and volume. Although he has the tools to win minutes wherever the fight goes, he will struggle against quicker fighters or those who can crack that seemingly fragile chin.
I do think this is a bit of a prospect showcase to kick off the new year. It’s the Fugitt test. We get to separate the Kinoshita’s and Quinlan’s from the Morales’ and Dulatov’s of the world. Sure, Fugitt has size, grit and a well-rounded skillset. He also is alternating wins and losses so maybe it’s just his turn to win. But I would be truly surprised if that continues to be the case.
Miller is a big guy for this weight class and I think he is able to dictate where this fight takes place, which is most-likely going to be from boxing range. There, he is going to be much sharper, much quicker and has the better durability in my opinion.
The 12 year age difference I do think favors the youth of Miller, who will be able to take the front foot, be quicker, hit harder and just have better optics. With the durability concerns of Fugitt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a finish here but Miller has been content to win minutes en route to a decision. Either way, I think he passes the prospect test here. There will be a clear discrepancy on the feet and I do think Miller rates out as the better fighter, especially stylistically here. Give me the newcomer.
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On DraftKings, Miller is priced at 9.3k and should be largely viewed as a boom or bust boxer.
Due to that label, Miller isn’t a must. He’s only earned two knockout wins in six pro fights and is coming off a Contender Series performance where he landed 84 sig. strikes in 15 minutes, which would have yielded a 66.6 DK points in a win. Therefore, the path for Miller to bust is obvious.
Conversely, I do think Miller has a legit shot to win by knockout and the knockout will be my prediction. Fugitt has been knocked down four times in his three UFC losses, and is coming off a quick KO loss to Dulatov who looks scary similar to Miller.
Miller should have the boxing, speed and durability advantages here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he picked up an early KO win with a big right hand. He is also -160 to win ITD, so the books agree that this is a decent spot for Miller to pick up the KO.
At 9.3k, it’s difficult to say Miller is an elite play as even a mid-round finish may not be enough to smash at this price tag. He’s expensive. And there are others in this range with solid upside.
But if Miller can pick up the KO win, given his solid boxing volume, he can surpass 100 points and contend for the optimal lineup. I think he rates out as a solid secondary target at least, and someone you should have exposure to given the situation. Especially if you can’t pay up further, Miller is a pretty strong target.
I will spread my exposure out in this range but I’m fairly optimistic in Miller’s chances to score an early KO and flirt with the optimal.
Fugitt at 6.9k doesn’t interest me much. I’d be pretty surprised if he won.
He’s just not a very effective fighter, and he’s slow. He’s not terrible technically and he even has wrestling upside, but I think Miller should hold advantages over him in effective striking.
Fugitt doesn’t really have much finishing equity either and is +550 to win ITD. I suppose he could land 2-3 takedowns but it would still take a “failure” from Miller for that to be enough to swing multiple rounds. Miller can be taken down but he scrambles up well enough.
Fugitt likely won’t be owned, which is a positive, but this isn’t a great spot for him on paper and he doesn’t feel like a particularly good investment to me. I’ll generally pass outside of a small percentage in large-field tournaments.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Miller by KO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)