Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg
Fight Odds: Prochazka -113, Ulberg -107
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Prochazka 8.2k, Ulberg 8k
Weight Class: 205
Oh man, we have a firefight between Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg in the light heavyweight division as the vacant championship belt is on the line.
Ulberg comes from the City Kickboxing camp and has a background in kickboxing, so his primary goal will generally be to keep the fight standing.
He came into the UFC relatively inexperienced as a professional MMA fighter though, and that’s why we’ve seen some trouble spots along the way. Despite going bananas with volume in his UFC debut against Kennedy Nzechukwu, Ulberg slowed down dramatically and was TKOd in the second round.
However, he’s now rattled off nine consecutive wins and is coming off a devastating early knockout over Dominick Reyes, which sealed his spot in the championship hunt.
I also like to point out that in his lone loss to Nzechukwu, Ulberg still landed 83 sig strikes in the first round. Getting tired is not terribly surprising. It showed some level of inexperience but that loss doesn’t look as bad in hindsight.
What’s arguably more important is that Ulberg has bounced back strongly from the defeat. He’s chosen to fight super cautiously at times, and won’t always push a heavy pace as his technical acumen is still enough to get ahead in rounds.
Even with a few decisions mixed in, Ulberg has still shown that devastating KO upside as well with first-round knockout wins against Reyes, Tafon Nchukwi, Nicolae Negumereanu, Ihor Potieria and Alonzo Menifield.
He’s even mixed in some wrestling along the way, landing a takedown in his fight against Da Woon Jung, where he took his back and finished with the RNC.
Ulberg currently lands 6.54 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.04 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. He’s proven some volume upside on more than one occasion, topping out at 146 sig. strikes against Nzechukwu and 98 sig. strikes in the win over Oezdemir.
He’s generally difficult to beat on the numbers, and has never been outlanded in significant strikes in the UFC. The power won’t always show up, but Ulberg has that too.
Going forward, I mostly consider Ulberg to be a dangerous kickboxer, with some real knockout equity, and some strong round-winning equity as well. He’ll be a little bit difficult to trust as far as knowing when he’ll push the pace or fight cautiously, but I think he has win equity in both types of matchups.
I’ll also still have mild concerns about when he’s pushed, getting tired, getting outgrappled, or getting hurt. Against the highest levels of competition in the light heavyweight division, Ulberg will likely face more adversity, but he’s proven to be pretty capable to this point.
Obviously, Jiri Prochazka is going to want to test that cardio and durability of Ulberg, and I can’t say with confidence whether Ulberg has what it takes to stay safe for 25 minutes.
Prochazka has made a career out of fighting like a wild man. He pushes a hectic pace on the feet, and he fights with an unorthodox style that allows him to land creatively.
Sure, he’ll forego defense with his hands at his hips, but it allows him to fire off shots that surprise opponents, and he’s been able to score several vicious knockouts because of it.
More importantly, Prochazka has been able to push a relentless pace in the mid-rounds which can overwhelm his opponents. Once they start to tire out, they become more vulnerable, and Prochazka has been able to capitalize on those openings.
Look no further than his last fight against Khalil Rountree, who was up two rounds on Prochazka heading into the third. Rountree was simply the more technical kickboxer in that fight, and he was the better defensive fighter.
But it didn’t matter. As soon as round three started, Prochazka basically just chased him down, gassed him out, and then knocked him out cold with a couple of minutes to spare.
That kind of style can be enough to win you the belt in the light heavyweight division, but it doesn’t come without faults. Prochazka still absorbs 5.6 sig strikes per minute with a 45 percent defensive rate. He’s been knocked out twice by Alex Pereira, and he’s been hurt in other fights too.
Honestly, Prochazka fights are difficult to analyze because of this dynamic, and that includes this upcoming matchup against Ulberg.
I view Ulberg as the more technical kickboxer, and it’s not particularly close. Not only is he more technical but he also has a +2 distance striking rate versus the +0.2 rate of Prochazka. Ulberg is defending strikes at 51 percent versus the 45 percent rate of Prochazka.
The most likely outcome in my mind is that Ulberg gets off to an early lead. I think he can win early exchanges and stay safe. I think he has knockout equity too. While Prochazka will try to chase him down, he’ll do so with his hands down and it wouldn’t be a surprising outcome to see Ulberg knock him out.
However, I really can’t say for sure that it matters. If Prochazka does chase him down, it seems likely that he’ll eventually start connecting, at which point, Ulberg could gas out and get hurt like everyone else. It’s how he lost his lone UFC fight.
I did like the third round for Ulberg against Oezdemir, who also chased him down. I thought Ulberg handled himself well in that round, and didn’t seem gassed out. I also know Ulberg has improved since his loss in 2021, so it’s not as if he’s the exact same fighter. But stylistically, it’s a reasonable win path for Prochazka.
I’m still going to lean with Ulberg to get the win here, though not with any particular confidence. I just think he’s the better striker and the metrics back it up. He’s a better round winner and he has legit knockout upside in this fight.
My assumption is Prochazka will create havoc at some point, in which case it might lead to a do or die situation for Ulberg. I’m not sold he passes this test, and a mid-round TKO seems like a reasonable choice on the Prochazka side. I just have to favor the better round winner and defensive fighter which is ultimately Ulberg.
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On DraftKings, this is the only five round fight on the slate and the only championship fight, and I expect it to get a lot of public attention.
In some ways, it’s still a relatively boom or bust matchup. I don’t really expect these fighters to grapple, and volume can be hit or miss. If the fight extends, which is possible, we may not see an ultra smash score.
The mid-range is stacked to the point that we haven’t seen in some time, so I’m not necessarily sure that this is a fight that must be targeted.
With that said, the expectation for the winner will still be very strong, and with a 90-100 point score or more, the winner can definitely contend for the optimal.
Prochazka is averaging 104.7 DK points per win, which is very strong, and it makes sense given his reliance on damage. He doesn’t win ITD early, but even in these comeback fights, he’s landing so many strikes in those final exchanges that he’s racking up points and topping 100 regardless.
But there’s still been a wide range of outcomes which is important to note. Prochazka has won in round two and scored 93, 118 and 103. He’s won in round three and scored 105 and 83. There is some reason to be concerned here.
Especially because I don’t think a round one knockout is the most likely situation for Prochazka. He’s actually never won by knockout in round one in the UFC. If he’s lighting his opponent up in round one and finishing in round two, great, but that’s not often the case.
When he’s truly forced to come from behind, sometimes, depending on the exact minute he finds the finish, his offensive production simply isn’t enough.
Prochazka is +120 to win ITD in this matchup which is strong, and I think he’ll be among the most popular fighters on the slate. At 8.2k, he rates out well for upside and is probably worth moderate exposure by default.
I can make a decent case to come in underweight I suppose, being that he might simply lose outright to the better striker in Ulberg, or that Ulberg might have enough early success to extend the fight, and even in a comeback win, Prochazka could fail to top 100 DK points.
I guess if forced to choose, I will lean slightly against the field on this one. But it’s such a high-variance type of fight that you don’t necessarily have to take a real stand here, especially considering there are so many other opportunities elsewhere to take real stands if you want them. Playing both sides along with the field is pretty reasonable.
Ulberg is priced at 8k, and should also be quite popular.
He is only averaging 95 DK points per win, and that lower rate primarily stems from the fact that he’s won three decisions, which scored 60, 69 and 69. If you extrapolate that out to five rounds, Ulberg would still project to score in the 90s in a five round decision which is OK.
Plus, he’s scored a bunch of knockouts too, many in round one, and has clear 100-110 point upside for that reason. Ulberg is +160 to win ITD in this matchup, and we’ve seen Prochazka knocked out early twice.
The analysis is pretty similar on this side of the equation though. Having moderate exposure alongside the field makes sense, and you really don’t need to take a major stand on this matchup given the variance and competitive betting line.
In a win, there are ways for Ulberg to underperform and miss the optimal, scoring 90-95 points in an extended fight. Or he could win by early knockout and be optimal. All options are on the table.
I probably like Ulberg to win outright a little more than the field, but I’m far from confident he easily finishes the fight. I might lean slightly in his direction overall but I won’t end up drastically off the field percentages.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ulberg by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa
Fight Odds: Murzakanov -200, Costa +170
Odds to end ITD: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Murzakanov 8.9k, Costa 7.3k
Weight Class: 205
The newly minted co-main event this weekend will be another light heavyweight tilt between Azamat Murzakanov and Paulo Costa.
Murzakanov is 16-0 professionally with 12 wins by knockout, and he’s run through his UFC competition thus far, picking up seven consecutive wins with six of those coming inside the distance.
It’s honestly super impressive. Murzakanov has knocked down each of the seven opponents he’s faced, and apparently carries some legit power in his hands. He doesn’t necessarily look the part, as I wouldn’t consider him an insane athlete or explosive talent.
But he’s deceptively fast with his hands. His best weapon is that piston of a left hand, standing from the Southpaw stance. He’s coming off a KO win over Aleksandar Rakic where he landed a short lead right that put Rakic down.
I have mixed feelings here because I don’t want to discredit Murzakanov. I think he’s a legitimately good boxer, and the results speak for themselves. Especially at light heavyweight, you can get away with mediocre wrestling and mediocre volume.
However, it seems pretty clear to me that Murzakanov is due for some regression. You simply cannot knock down every opponent you face.
Murzakanov still throws fair volume, and is landing 4.70 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.86 with a 60 percent defensive rate. But he’s primarily a head hunter, with nearly 70 percent of his shots landing to the head of his opponents.
That is one way to win by knockout, but when you aren’t landing those big shots, things can get murky. We’ve seen Murzakanov fight competitively before too. Against Tafon Nchukwi in 2022, he was down two rounds to zero before knocking Nchukwi out in the third.
He had a very close decision win over Dustin Jacoby, which is pretty respectable, but it was a second round knockdown for Murzakanov that ultimately swung the fight in his favor.
Murzakanov’s level of competition has been fairly mediocre too. He has some decent wins like his decision over Jacoby, but Brendson Ribeiro, Devin Clark, and Nchukwi aren’t the most talented.
I would have loved to see his last fight against Rakic play out longer. Rakic was ahead early but got caught, which wasn’t the biggest surprise.
I don’t want to say Murzakanov is a pure boom or bust, knockout or bust fighter. But the fact is, he doesn’t wrestle and his volume is mediocre. He’s not big for the weight class and without knockdowns, he’s far less likely to win rounds and win fights.
His next opponent will be none other than Paulo Costa, who is coming up from middleweight to light heavyweight for this bout.
Costa has fought at light heavyweight before, and the last time he did, he lost in a main event to Marvin Vettori in 2021.
Costa has had a very up and down career since he debuted in 2017. He’s an incredible athlete, juiced to the gills, and carries insane knockout power with an explosive style.
Early on, his style led to him just smashing guys, and he picked up four straight knockouts to start his career. I remember betting him as a dog against Yoel Romero in 2019, and the pair had one of the best fights of that year, going to war for three rounds where Costa came out on top.
That led to a title shot against Israel Adesanya, where Izzy just picked Costa apart and TKOd him in the second round. If my memory is correct, which it’s fuzzy I’ll admit, that’s sort of when we started to get a different view of Costa.
Obviously he’s a social media star now and known for saying egregious things. He was apparently drunk or hungover during the Adesanya fight and he looked absolutely awful. He still fought legit competition moving forward but lost four fights in five tries.
We got arguably his best performance in years in his most recent fight though, in a win over Roman Kopylov who I consider a decent talent. Costa was simply the more active striker at distance and kind of beat Kopylov up for the majority of three rounds.
Looking back too, Costa maybe doesn’t get enough credit. Yes, he lost that main event to Vettori but he landed 163 sig strikes in 25 minutes. He lost a main event to Sean Strickland but he landed 158 sig strikes in 25 minutes.
He most recently beat Kopylov and landed 99 sig strikes in 15 minutes. Costa is actually out there throwing volume, which I like. He lands 6.26 sig strikes per minute in total, while absorbing 6.20 with a 49 percent defensive rate.
It makes for a super intriguing matchup here against Murzakanov, and I’m honestly a bit surprised to see Murzakanov favored near -200.
I don’t mind picking Murzakanov to win, but I’ll say it again, every single win of his has come with a knockdown. Costa has been knocked down twice, once by Romero and once by Adesanya, but you really can’t compare his durability to fighters that Murzakanov has been facing.
Costa’s defense isn’t special but he’s surviving 180 or 190 sig strikes from multiple opponents over five rounds just fine. He absolutely went to war against Romero, survived the knockdown and still battered him up.
I’m simply not confident that Murzakanov throws one power left hand and knocks Costa out. Maybe he can.
What I am concerned about is that if Murzakanov does not hurt Costa badly, he may be on the wrong side of the volume spectrum. I still think he can win minutes and win moments, but Costa profiles as the more active striker.
Costa also isn’t going to be undersized here. He’s three inches taller than Murzakanov with about the same reach. Costa is going to attempt to use his frame and distance to kick at Murzakanov on the outside, just as he did to Kopylov who is another Southpaw. Murzakanov will attempt to dart in with his hands and hurt Costa.
I think the betting line should be more competitive here personally, and I may end up picking Costa outright (with little confidence). Murzakanov just hasn’t faced many distance threats yet in his career and the last time he did, he went toe to toe with Jacoby for three rounds and needed a knockdown to seal it.
I think Costa can be highly competitive at range, and I think he has a clear path to winning this fight with his volume kicking game. He also throws with enough power that he could hurt Murzakanov as well.
I respect Murzakanov enough to think he may still land a few good shots, and maybe Costa won’t deal well with his hand speed. It could still lead to Murzakanov winning rounds, or winning by knockout. Costa is also inconsistent and not the kind of person I feel confident will always fight at his best.
I still just think we’re due for some Murzakanov regression, and I think Costa is an intriguing opponent who’s dynamic enough at distance to survive the occasional punch and give him a real fight.
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On DraftKings, Murzakanov is priced at 8.9k and is one of the most expensive fighters on the slate.
Obviously, he’s incredibly boom or bust. The difference on this kind of slate is that despite being expensive, there’s no shortage of cheap options to play, and it won’t be difficult to pay up.
I don’t necessarily expect Murzakanov to be chalk, but there aren’t a whole lot of other safe options to choose at the top of the board. Pico is here, but he was just KOd badly in his UFC debut and I don’t know if the public will trust him. Gastelum doesn’t have the greatest box score.
Meanwhile, Murzakanov is sitting there at 8.9k, with an undefeated record, and a juicy box score that has back-to-back 100 point results.
This just isn’t the type of fighter or situation I like to target. It’s worth mentioning that with five knockout wins, Murzakanov has only reached 100 points twice. He’s only reached 102 points once.
This is essentially because he doesn’t produce much offense. So if he wins by second or third round knockout, he is probably a dog to score 100 DK points. And even in an early knockout, he doesn’t have a 115-120 point ceiling because he doesn’t throw enough strikes.
That’s a major concern for me, especially if he’s going to project as some kind of chalk. Furthermore, he’s only +170 to win ITD in this fight, which makes some sense given Costa’s historic durability.
So now I’m supposed to target a boom or bust, round one or bust KO artist, at chalk, in a matchup that is a near pick’em to go the full 15 minute distance? It seems like a bad play on paper.
Of course I believe you can roster Murzakanov here, and I think he still could find a way to win by early knockout. On paper, this does not scream like a fantastic option given his correlation to a round one KO, with the odds juiced against him to get that result. I am not necessarily looking to fade but I’d be happy to come in underweight if Murzakanov is going to gain a lot of public ownership this week.
Costa is priced at 7.3k and I think he’s a fine salary saver.
My primary concern with Costa this week is actually his ceiling. I do think he carries real win equity at this price tag and my initial instinct was to target him often, but there’s really no shortage of win equity below the mid-range.
I do think Costa can win by knockout and score 100 points, but it’s arguable that the more likely outcome is that he lands 80 strikes and wins a decision. He’s coming off an 80 point decision win that included a knockdown, which scares me.
Costa rates out well here with a +290 ITD line, but it’s hard for me to be that confident he’ll KO Murzakanov, who has never lost. I think the more clear path is for him to land more volume and win a decision, which is still OK at this price tag, but definitely puts his ceiling into question.
Given the price, I’m happy to mix in Costa this week when I want a way to be different and a way to save salary. I think I can make better upside cases for some others priced in the upper-7s though, which means I’ll likely prioritize them outright.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Costa by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit
Fight Odds: Blaydes -135, Hokit +115
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Blaydes 8.4k, Hokit 7.8k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an extremely high-stakes crossroads fight here in the heavyweight division between a perennial top contender in Curtis Blaydes and a fast-rising prospect in Josh Hokit.
Blaydes is the ultimate litmus test for any heavyweight trying to enter the elite tier.
Blaydes is a powerhouse wrestler who lands 5.38 takedowns per 15 minutes. His game plan is usually to put guys on their back and drown them with heavy top pressure and elbows. He also has decent enough cardio to keep it up for 15 minutes. I will say that I don’t think his takedowns aren’t quite as sharp as they used to be though. He also has struck more in recent years.
On the feet, Blaydes has improved and lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute, and he absorbs 2.00. He has a decent jab but his defensive striking is his biggest liability. He tends to stand tall and has been caught clean and put away several times in his career.
His chin is a concern at this stage of his career after taking so much damage from the heavy hitters of the division. I still think Blaydes is a fine round winning striker in this division though. He isn’t a world beater though and he is coming off a split decision win over Kuniev which I think he lost.
Overall, Blaydes is a very solid heavyweight. He can wrestle most of this division and is a formidable striker where he can hold his own.
Blaydes will be taking on Josh Hokit and the UFC is clearly putting him on the fast track by giving him a top-5 opponent in just his third promotional appearance.
Hokit is undefeated and has finished every single one of his professional opponents. Most recently, he finished Denzel Freeman in the first round at UFC 324. Hokit outlanded Freeman 37-0 in significant strikes and brought an insane pace. Hokit stormed Freeman with some strikes and mixed in some wrestling and just murdered him. It was mad impressive.
Hokit is an elite-level athlete with a high-level wrestling background of his own, and he was a solid college wrestler. He wasn’t a heavyweight in college and actually wrestled at lighter weight classes, so he brings small man wrestling skill to heavyweight which I think is an X factor for him. He is explosive, physically imposing, and can wrestle well. He chains his leg attacks well and can outwrestle 80 percent of this division and beat them up on the mat.
I may be jumping the gun, but I legitimately would pick him to beat guys like Gane and potentially Aspinall as well. I think there is just a good chance he outwrestles those guys. I just think with his wrestling alone, he can dominate almost everyone in this weight class.
Hokit as a striker is more so where the questions are. He can obviously blitz people on the feet with his pressure and athleticism. He was landing bombs on Freeman and I am pretty confident he can bang on the feet offensively early on in fights. He almost reminds me of Cain Velasquez where he just brings pace and pressure on the feet.
The issue is that Hokit is probably not skillful on the feet beyond that. If he is forced to strike for an extended period, I question if he has the skills and the defense to win fights easily. We just need to see more of it.
We honestly may see that part of Hokit’s game tested here too. Blaydes is very hard to take and keep down. I think either guy can wrestle the other here and land takedowns. However, I don’t think either dominates on the mat. My guess is there is some level of neutralization.
I think that brings some striking exchanges into this fight. I honestly think the early striking storm Hokit brings with his pressure and aggression is exactly the type of fight Blaydes struggles with. We have seen Blaydes get blown out early, and I sort of think Hokit is going to come out hot with takedowns attempts (that may fail) and mix in strikes with them and catch Blaydes early and hurt him. Also, even if Hokit doesn’t finish Blaydes early, I think Hokit’s aggression likely wins him round 1 so I am actually going to pick Hokit.
The question is what happens if this fight extends on the feet. I really am not sure but I would probably favor Blaydes in an extended striking affair. Blaydes very well may win that type of fight so picking Blaydes is reasonable.
Blaydes still doesn’t put up a lot of volume though so Hokit very well may steal that first round and then just compete in general and hold on to a decision. So I am actually going to pick Hokit because I think he has early finish upside and is more likely to win round 1.
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On DraftKings, I’m definitely interested in this matchup.
Man, I really am not sure what to think of Hokit. I kind of thought he was a longer term fade prior to his last matchup because he doesn’t rate out as some high-level striker, and we haven’t seen much of his game past the first round.
But what is clear to me now is that Hokit has enough offense in his game to impose it on basically any opponent. He may simply gas out after the early storm and lose, but he’s going to throw a barrage of strikes and takedowns early, and that is honestly enough to beat most of this division.
In terms of this matchup, obviously Blaydes is the more experienced fighter, and he’s much bigger. I do think Hokit can take him down, but I don’t really think Hokit can keep him down.
Like Tim said though, Hokit is so aggressive that he has a good chance to win round one regardless. And maybe he can simply win another round after that.
Additionally, he may win by knockout. He’s willing to go after the kill and Blaydes has pretty bad durability. Blaydes will probably be put on the back foot early, and he might just lose. I don’t think Hokit should clearly be favored here but I’m not super confident Blaydes survives an early attack.
Hokit may end up as one of the most popular fighters on the slate at 7.8k, and I honestly think it may be correct.
He’s coming off wins of 123 and 139 DK points, and no matter what his win looks like, it’s rooted in offense. Even in a decision, I would expect a ton of strikes and takedowns landed, and I think he could clear 100 points.
He’s also +150 to win ITD at +115 to win outright, so most often, a win will come early ITD for him. Essentially, Hokit has elite upside in a win, and he’s nearly 50/50 to win.
If you want to play the underweight approach, and just hope Blaydes can survive a storm and come back to win, that seems like an acceptable strategy. Primarily this would be to get off the chalk and create some more unique constructions.
However, I do think Hokit is a very strong target for his price tag, and I’ll probably end up with moderate exposure personally. He just clears most of this range for upside, ITD equity, and it’s not a bad matchup to have early success.
Blaydes is priced at 8.4k and is probably more of the leverage side.
I think Blaydes is going to have serious issues with speed here, and he’s going to be in defensive mode early. I’m not really sure what a win looks like for him.
What you’re hoping for is that Blaydes can knock him out in an early exchange, which is possible given he’s fine offensively and the much bigger man. Or that Hokit death gasses, which seems even more likely. Maybe Blaydes can take him down and TKO him late in the fight.
Blaydes is +230 to win ITD here which is fine. He’s cheap at 8.4k. He’ll be lower owned than Hokit outright. He rates out as a solid secondary option overall.
I am definitely worried about Blaydes getting starched in this matchup and I’m not super confident what a win for him looks like, but given the pacing and the high number of exchanges outright, the wrestling equity on both sides, and the ITD potential, this is a fight we should have exposure to. I like Hokit more for upside but Blaydes is a worthwhile secondary and leverage target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hokit by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker
Fight Odds: Reyes -143, Walker +123
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Reyes 8.3k, Walker 7.9k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an extremely sketchy fight here in the light heavyweight division between two guys in Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker who have been knocked out so many times in recent years.
Reyes is famous for giving Jon Jones everything that Jones could handle back in 2020. Reyes then went on a really tough losing streak and was knocked out three straight times against Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and Ryan Spann. All of those guys are either good or hit very hard so it’s not an unforgivable losing streak but it was concerning seeing Reyes getting knocked out over and over.
Reyes bounced back with three straight finishes against Dustin Jacoby, Anthony Smith, and Nikita Krylov. He then was knocked out by Carlos Ulberg in his last matchup.
It is tough because Reyes has some nice wins and is clearly a capable fighter. His losses have been to very good and dangerous fighters. However, I hate when guys take that many knockouts and his chin is clearly something that no one can trust.
Reyes is a pretty decent striker and has knockout power, and has won by knockout several times. He lands 5.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.49 in return. I consider him a fine striker at this weight class with decent power and decent volume. He has a good straight left standing out of the southpaw stance.
Reyes doesn’t really wrestle offensively and only lands 0.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. He did beat the crap out of Smith from top position but Anthony Smith is terrible and I doubt Reyes offensively wrestles often going forward. I do consider Reyes’ TDD strong though and he defends takedowns at 82 percent.
Reyes will be taking on Johnny Walker. Walker is just kind of a wild man and is dangerous on the feet. He is unpredictable and unorthodox on the feet and has dangerous knockout power. He lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.09 in return.
Walker’s ratios aren’t bad, but I don’t look at Walker and consider him a great round winning striker. I more so just think he is a random knockout threat. The guy has had some atrociously bad low volume performances so he isn’t a lock to win rounds. He is also chinny and has been knocked out four times in the UFC and hurt several times. I have trouble trusting Walker in general nowadays.
Walker isn’t much of an offensive wrestling threat. He only lands 0.42 takedowns per 15 minutes and doesn’t look to wrestle often. He only defends takedowns at 57 percent and can be controlled on his back. I actually don’t think his submission grappling is bad though. He has guard retention and seems to know basic BJJ decently well. He also submitted Ion Cutelaba so he has some tricks on the mat.
I really have trouble trusting Walker. He is a knockout threat and I do respect that path to victory for him. However, other than that he doesn’t have many paths to victory. He also is super chinny and isn’t great defensively.
As far as this matchup goes, this is as volatile as it gets. These guys are both powerful and chinny. A knockout is in play at any point so it is hard to be confident in either guy.
I think Reyes is the more consistent striker. He consistently lands straight punches and controls range better. I think that consistency can easily transform into a knockout. I also think that consistency could lead him to a decision win. I do think if this fight goes to the scorecards, I favor Reyes as he is a better controller of range. I also think Reyes has a sneaky decent top game and is more likely to get top position and have success in this fight but it isn’t something I expect to happen either. I am going to pick Reyes.
I am just concerned though man. I feel like all of the wild shit Walker throws like spinning back fists and shit is exactly the type of junk that seems to catch Reyes on the chin. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if an unorthodox strike of Walker knocked Reyes out cold.
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On DraftKings, this is one of many high-upside mid-range matchups.
The fight as a whole is -400 to end inside the distance, and both guys have real durability issues. An early knockout on either side is pretty reasonable, and it makes sense to play into the fight because of it.
Personally, I’m much higher on the Reyes side. He’s actually a decent fighter. Walker sucks in my opinion, and is so moment dependent. Even in his last win, he wasn’t doing that well and then just landed a leg kick that crumpled Zhang. I suppose those leg kicks could do damage here too, but Reyes shouldn’t mess around too much.
I simply think that if Reyes forces the issue, he should win by knockout. At 8.3k, he’s a strong upside target. Reyes is -105 to win ITD which is really strong for the price point, and he has the best ITD line on the slate, as well as the best round one finishing prop. I expect him to be semi-popular for this reason, though people will also be cautious given the potential for him to be KOd.
Of course if the fight extends, it will likely bust. Given Reyes was just KOd again, and Walker looked less willing to exchange in his last matchup, it’s not impossible this fight extends. It’s simply very high-variance.
I do like Reyes though as the preferred side and I’d be happy coming in overweight if he’s owned in the low 30s.
Walker is priced at 7.9k and is arguably a very strong play too.
Look, he could win by early KO too. This is an incredibly high-variance fight and Reyes has serious chin issues. I just view Walker as more random moment dependent, but that doesn’t mean he can’t come through.
Walker is +175 to win ITD which isn’t as strong as Reyes’ mark, but he may be less owned. He saves some salary.
With a large portfolio, Walker will just be a reasonable secondary target. I personally wouldn’t be excited to come in heavy on him, but it’s possible he gets a bit overlooked given the strength of this range as a whole.
The fight is -210 to end in less than 1.5 rounds, and you probably want a fair chunk of exposure to the winner. I have a moderate lean toward Reyes but you can choose to play it a different way.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Reyes by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr
Fight Odds: Swanson -115, Landwehr -105
Odds to end ITD: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Landwehr 8.3k, Swanson 7.9k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a clash of legends, as Cub Swanson returns to take on Nate Landwehr in a fight that has fireworks written all over it. Let’s dive in.
Cub Swanson has been around the game for a long time. Already in the Hall-of-Fame for his 2016 bout against Dooho Choi, the 42 year old is stepping into his retirement fight this weekend and looking to walk away victorious. Swanson, a WEC vet, has a 20-13 record amongst the promotions and a 30-14 record overall. With wins over the likes of Charles Oliveira, Jeremy Stephens and Dustin Poirier, amongst many more, Swanson has fought a great level of competition.
At his core, he is a rangy kickboxer. He’s always willing to get into a scrap and has shown a solid ability to finish fights, as per his last KO victory against Billy Quarantillo and his 60% finish rate, to which he has 13 wins by KO.
Across his UFC career, he’s averaging 4.79 strikes per minute, while absorbing 4 per minute with a 59% striking defense. Back in his prime, he had a great ability to utilize footwork to get in and out of range, and dart in to counter. Today, while maybe a little slower, he still has the ability to strike well from range albeit with less speed in his footwork or strikes.
Against fighters whom he can out-strike, he fares well. He KO’d Quarantillo and fought to a close split decision against Andre Fili. But when he got that step up in competition against Giga Chikadze and Jonathan Martinez, he was finished via strikes by both leg kicks and body work. Funny enough, he’s only ever been finished by strikes three times, all by quite extreme fashion. He was body kicked by Giga, leg kicked by Martinez and then back in 2009, was flying knee’d by Jose Aldo.
Otherwise, he is pretty durable to the strikes, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be finished. He has been submitted seven times and that ground game is often the easiest way to get him out of there. Although he has a lifetime 63% takedown defense, he’s been taken down five times in his last two fights and slicker grapplers such as Renato Moicano, Brian Ortega, Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway have been able to finish him.
He himself can wrestle if he has to but he has only landed three takedowns in his last 12 fights and although he has a lifetime average of 1.01 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a 50% TD accuracy, he doesn’t utilize it too often. Instead, he wants to strike on the feet and can still bang it out If he has to.
Overall, Swanson is an old-school brawler with solid durability and great striking who although he may be 42, still has the striking it takes to compete with the best of them. However he has been finished plenty, is slowing down as he ages and has been submitted enough to make us worry about him in his retirement fight.
Nate Landwehr makes his return this weekend and is looking for his 6th performance bonus in the UFC. The all-action featherweight made his debut back in 2020 and has delivered plenty of entertainment in his tenure since then. He actually did most of his regional scene work in Russia, where he was an M-1 champion. He entered the UFC at 13-2 and has since gone 5-5 with the promotion, with seven of those fights ending before the final bell.
Nate the Train is what you call a “kill or be killed” sort of fighter. 61% of his wins come by way of finish and he has conversely been finished in 72% of losses, five times overall. Four of those finish losses have come in the UFC. He was KO’d in round one by Herbert Burns in his debut, finished by Julian Erosa in round one, elbowed into oblivion by Dooho Choi and was most recently put on Morgan Charriere’s highlight reel with a round three KO loss back in July of last year.
Landwehr can be hurt. He has been dropped five times in the UFC and wobbled even more. He is absorbing 5.83 strikes per minute and is often a slower striker, especially early. However, Landwehr builds as the fight goes on and is able to break people down the stretch. He was able to break Klein in round three, submit Lingo and round two and absolutely dismantle Onama late in the fight in what was an absolute back and forth battle.
He himself averages 5.63 strikes per minute, has great cardio and can put together solid boxing combinations, especially late in fights. I also think his grappling is underrated. He doesn’t utilize it too often, only averaging 0.76 TDs per 15 minutes at a 41% accuracy, though he used it to beat Klein, Lingo and Onama.
He can be decent offensively, especially if he blends it in with his pace and striking. However he has been taken down six times in his last two losses and can also be beaten there the same way.
Overall, Landwehr is a high pace, high output striker that has great cardio and builds as the fight goes on, but is slow early, can be hit and has been KO’d by prioritizing his offence over defense. He will rate out as a kill or be killed fighter who can be hurt early, but will typically take over fights late if he’s able to make it there.
This fight has all the makings of a fight of the night type of scrap. Nate Landwehr has always delivered inside the UFC with his kill or to be killed style. If Cub has any gas left in the tank, especially any of what he had in that Choi fight, he will be willing to stand and trade. Nate will like that, as he is someone who wants to get in a brawl and will typically succeed late.
I think this fight dynamic will be similar to most Landwehr fights. I expect Cub to have the edge early. He should still be quicker, despite his age, and should be able to land and potentially even hurt Landwehr early. However as the fight goes, the high pace striking battle should favor Landwehr and he should win the pressure battle and boxing late, especially as the 42 year old starts to take damage.
Also, I don’t expect much wrestling, but would probably favor Landwehr in that department due to his physicality if it ends up there. So sure, Cub is old. He’s retiring. But I mean, a few years ago he would be a larger favorite here and I would still think he has the edge in some pretty important metrics here.
I favour Cub’s speed and technicality early, I think he’s got better durability and I think he’s even got the cardio and ability to match the striking late, as he is typically able to use his footwork to win the exchanges, which will be important here. Landwehr has notably only beaten slower strikers and those who have slowed down late. I don’t think Cub fits either of those attributes, and even those to beat Cub are much more technical, rangier strikers than Landwehr. So I’m actually going to take the fairy tale ending for Cub here. I think he has the early upside, the more technical striking and even better durability.
Sure, Landwehr could win rounds 2/3 here and maybe even wrestle, but I think it’s less likely than Cub winning the footwork and technical striking battle, let alone finding a finish. Give me the 42 year old.
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On DraftKings, I think this is a pretty solid matchup for pacing.
I generally agree with Gordo’s breakdown, and I was surprised to see Swanson lined as the dog for most of this week. I suppose with the high-variance dynamic of Landwehr fights, and Cub retiring, this could just be a 50/50 fight. However, Cub is clearly the more technical fighter, he’s more durable and Landwehr typically only wins fights after he’s been beaten up.
So my pick is Cub to win and I think he has a better shot to win by KO than Landwehr. Considering he’s the cheaper fighter at 7.9k, he’s my preferred target.
Cub is +225 to win ITD which is decent for the price tag. I do think he has a shot to win by knockout and score 100 points.
Obviously, the concern is that this could just be a mid-paced striking fight that goes the distance. In that case, there’s no guarantee Cub exceeds value. So he’s not a lock and the fight is only -135 to end inside the distance.
Landwehr is allowing 18.7 DK points per 5 minutes according to MMA Labs, which is a lot. Swanson has KD equity even in a decision, and I think he has mild wrestling equity as well.
I’m willing to buy on this spot. It may not work and he doesn’t have to be the outright priority, but Swanson has a good shot to win and decent enough finishing equity to a solid secondary option or better.
Landwehr is priced at 8.3k and may actually end up as the leverage play.
Landwehr is coming off three losses in four fights, and multiple ugly TKO losses in a row. I don’t think many will view him as a clear favorite here, and he won’t be a priority at least. He’s still +185 to win ITD.
Landwehr fights with an insane pace and reckless abandon, and I do think Swanson will meet him in the middle and brawl, given it’s his retirement fight. There’s some variance there and Landwehr could win by knockout.
I’m not necessarily high on Landwehr in this matchup but I do think he’s a decent correlation to upside. He’s averaging 99.3 DK points per win while Swanson is averaging 102 DK points per loss. So in a win, I think Landwehr can be optimal.
I’ll definitely have more Swanson here but Landwehr is a fine secondary and/or leverage option.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Swanson by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico
Fight Odds: Pico -290, Pitbull +245
Odds to end ITD: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Pico 9.2k, Pitbull 7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a fun fight between former Bellator fighters, as Aaron Pico returns to face Patricio Pitbull.
Patricio Freire, lovingly known as Pitbull, was a former Bellator champion and legend in that promotion. With an overall record of 37-8, Pitbull is now 38 years old, and although he’s someone who we had high expectations for, he might be a bit over the hill.
With wins over Michael Chandler, Juan Archetula, AJ McKee and more in his Bellator run, he won the belt four times and defended it nine times from 2013 to 2024. He was well-rounded, powerful and extremely durable in that time, and it wasn’t until his more recent fights against Pettis where he was hurt, and was finally finished by strikes for the first time by Suzuki in 2023.
That durability and speed waning with age and cage time is a bit concerning, but he was still a hot signing to the UFC. He had a rough transition over to the Octagon, pulling a tough matchup in his debut against Yair Rodriguez last April. He was a slight underdog in that matchup but was dominated from range, out struck 70-17 and knocked down in round three en route to a decision loss.
He was able to bounce back with a solid win over Dan Ige, where he landed five takedowns on his way to a unanimous decision. Freire looks to still have his ability to win minutes with his veteran savvy. He has won 13 decisions, but still holds a 65% finish rate split between 12 SUBs and 12 KOs. In the UFC, he is only landing 2.68 strikes per minute to his 4.23 absorbed, but that has been largely in part to the matchups he’s had.
He will still rate out of a powerful yet patient striker who will wait for openings, but has solid striking fundamentals and technique. He’s got a good ability to burst into range, is defending strikes at 57% and has been historically durable, aside from the recent issues.
In the grappling, he is competent as well. Although we have seen him on his back before, he’s got a good ability to work up and stay safe. He has only been submitted once and that was via guillotine, and his submission defence is pretty solid. He is currently averaging 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 33% accuracy. He himself can secure rounds that way too, but isn’t threatening too much on the mat recently. He’s also defending takedowns at 88%, but has not fought a dominant wrestler in a while.
Overall, Pitbull is a tough, well-rounded veteran who has plenty of cage time and the ability to win minutes and moments wherever the fight goes. Recently, he has started to slow a little but still has those explosive bursts, the ability to land takedowns and win minutes down the stretch, although his durability is starting to be questioned a little more. I do think he is a beatable fighter at this time with all the fight miles he has on him, but is someone who has the savvy to beat anyone and is well-rounded enough to keep up with the best of them.
Aaron Pico had a rough start to his UFC career, as he was on the receiving end of one of the best knockouts of 2025 when Lerone Murphy spinning elbowed him into oblivion. Pico actually had a solid first few minutes of that fight, landing 2 takedowns with 2 minutes of control in the 3 minutes the fight lasted.
That’s always been Pico’s style though, to go out there, push a crazy pace and either kill his opponent or get killed himself. Pico was one of the biggest prospects Bellator’s ever seen. He was the number one rated high school wrestler back in 2014, where he was undefeated and even signed a deal with Nike before any college experience.
Unfortunately, he wouldn’t get any college experience as that contract would make him a “professional” and he was unable to compete at the college level. He still had plenty of professional experience, winning gold in the U17 wrestling championships, silver in the U20 and even being an alternate for team USA at the Olympics, before transitioning to MMA. He also boxed in tournaments since he was 10 years old, so Pico didn’t have to pay any amateur or regional dues and immediately made his Bellator debut as an 0-0 fighter in 2017.
He was actually guillotined in his first pro bout with his lack of experience, but he was able to bounce back and had four round one wins before being rushed to the top, where he was finished twice by KO in 2019, which his pro record to 4-3.
He took the right steps back, fought more appropriate competition and eventually signed with the UFC as a 12-5 prospect with an 85% finish rate, also having been finished in all his losses.
Now that that long winded history lesson is over, let’s talk about what Pico brings to the Octagon; chaos. He has phenomenal wrestling and utilizes that aggression to his advantage, walking forward and shooting takedowns. From top, he is aggressive with ground-and-pound and has very good control. He can be a bit overzealous and lose position, but his frantic pace helps keep him in the clinch.
In his one 3 minute bout, he landed 2 takedowns on 3 official attempts and had two minutes of control. On the feet, he walks forward and swings crazy hooks. He hits really hard but subsequently can be countered and finished. That lack of defense is what can haunt Pico and what is the cause for all his losses so far. He is a very risky fighter with that style and although he is very technically sound with his boxing, very quick and powerful, he does leave a lot of openings defensively.
His cardio is also somewhat questionable. He has never lost by decision nor lost a third round, so we aren’t too sure how he holds up late, but his style is not one that I would assume is easy to maintain for 15 minutes.
Overall, Pico is a very exciting prospect who is extremely talented offensively and looks for the finish early. He is quick, explosive and has a wide background in wrestling and striking. However in those explosive moments he also leaves himself to be countered and has been finished in all his losses, making him a true kill or be killed fighter. He’s someone who I do think can be caught and hurt in the cage but someone who has all the tools to be a true problem offensively and not someone who I am running to bet against in the UFC, since he will often rate out well until he is caught with something.
This is lined as the widest favourite on the card, which is a bit odd to me. Shows you how great this card is, but also what people think of Pico. I mean this guy is good. He has all the credentials, is extremely quick and explosive early and definitely looks like a star when he is on the gas. But we just saw what the risks of his style are. He was just put out cold in that last bout and has been finished in all his losses.
Pitbull has like four times the cage experience and has way more experience late in fights. Does he have the veteran savvy to land a counter, find a guillotine or survive the early storm from Pico? I’m not as sure anymore. Ask me that five years ago and I would say Pitbull is a nightmare matchup for Pico because of his durability. But we have now seen him KO’d, dropped against Yair and just look slower overall.
We know Pico is going to go out there guns blazing early and look to kill Pitbull. I think those frantic exchanges are going to allow Pico to land the big shots and get into the clinch, where I would favour his wrestling early. Does he find a finish? Is he able to keep Pitbull on his back for extended periods of time? Those are the questions that will be answered here and that’s what will dictate the winner in my opinion.
Gun to my head, I say he does. He’s bigger than Pitbull, has some of the most beautiful wrestling you’ll ever see, and I think he has the opportunity to hurt Pitbull early or control him enough to win the early rounds. The later the fight goes, the more it favors Pitbull and I would even say he has a chance to hurt Pico early. But based on the pure size, physicality, speed and power of Pico, I have to choose him to have early success and be able to dictate this fight early. Give me Pico to get this done although I will admit his durability scares me and Pitbull is live for the upset.
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On DraftKings, Pico is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.2k.
This is probably the cheapest we’ve seen a “most expensive” fighter in quite some time, and given the huge number of mid-range options, Pico is very affordable.
Whether or not you want to play him is a different question. He is a mild step up in win odds but not necessarily finishing equity compared to most on the slate. I don’t consider him a lock. He was also on the wrong side of one of the knockouts of the year in his last fight against Murphy.
Obviously Pico needs a finish here, which is somewhat realistic, though he only carries a +105 ITD line. I actually think it’s interesting that his odds to win have dropped over the past few days, from -335 to -290. But his odds to win ITD have grown from +140 to +105.
He’s a devastating knockout artist and he can wrestle, so there are paths. Pitbull is a very experienced fighter though, a solid grappler, and historically durable.
I have mixed feelings here ultimately. If you have the salary to spend, I do still like Pico. I’m not sold on Murzakanov winning early, and Gastelum and Padilla and Radtke are not particularly safe either. Pico historically has a style to end fights early and a round one finish against most fighters in this division is a somewhat realistic outcome.
I honestly think you can leave a ton of salary on the table this week too. For example, Gamrot at 8.6k could semi-realistically be the most expensive fighter you need in your lineup.
Pico rates out as a solid upside option based on his historic style and ITD odds this week, but it’s not an extremely clear path to a quick win. I think mixing him in is the right call as he’s very affordable, but it’s hard to say he’s clearly the priority in this range.
Pitbull is priced at 7k and has some merit.
I think the primary difficulty on this slate is that the mid-range is the priority, and there are lots of viable dogs. There’s no real reason to save this much salary as you don’t have to spend up, and therefore, Pitbull just isn’t a must.
Targeting the one moderately sized underdog on the slate just doesn’t feel like a spectacular investment.
With that said, when Pico loses, he tends to lose big. He’s lost five times and all inside the distance. I am not picking Pitbull to knock him out, but he’s not incapable of that result.
So if Pitbull does win, I think a mid-round knockout is pretty likely. He’s +385 to win ITD which is pretty mediocre.
Pitbull is only a low end play due to his lack of win equity compared to the rest of the slate, but I do still think he carries some upside. With a large portfolio, I’d sprinkle him in at what I’d expect to be a reasonably low public ownership.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pico by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown
Fight Odds: Brown -110, Holland -110
Odds to end ITD: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Brown 8.4k, Holland 7.8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really sketchy fight here between veterans Kevin Holland and Randy Brown.
Holland thrives as a striker. He lands 4.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 in return. Those are solid metrics. In pure striking fights, Holland is quite good.
Holland is skilled and dangerous as a striker. He has crisp kicks and straight punches, and is very relaxed and always seems to find his target. He also stands at 6’3” with an 81” reach which is a big frame for welterweight. So he is huge at welterweight.
Holland’s issue has always been his defensive grappling, and more specifically, his wrestling. He defends takedowns at 56 percent and can be held on his back. Holland is actually a decent submission grappler. Once he is taken down, he can retain guard and isn’t in a ton of danger. His issue is simply being controlled.
One thing I do hate about Holland is how complicit he is losing fights. In his losses to Dolidze and De Ridder, he was laughing and hugging his opponents after, and cracking jokes. I am not saying go be a sore loser and throw a fit after a loss. It is fine to congratulate your opponent with a handshake or whatever. I am all about losing with class. However, I just think Holland’s laughing and being so cool with losing shows the mentality of a loser. It is a terrible mindset to have in any area of life and especially in fighting.
I also thought Holland’s performance against Daniel Rodriguez was concerning. Holland got hurt a couple of times which was a bad look as durability was always a strength of Holland’s. He also just got put in awful spots on the mat against Rodriguez who isn’t even a grappler. I just thought Holland looked worse than usual in that matchup.
Furthermore, along with his complicity of losing fights, Holland just seems to find random ways to lose fights. The guy randomly got hurt on a ground exchange by Dolidze. He was winning against Malott, gets nut shotted then just stares and doesn’t throw for two rounds and loses a decision, etc. I just don’t always trust this guy.
Holland will be taking on Randy Brown who is coming off a knockout loss to Gabriel Bonfim.
Brown lands 4.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.33 in return. Brown is a decent striker. He can land long punches and kicks. He is athletic and controls range with his frame. I do worry about his leg kick defense though. He has been BATTERED to the legs in many fights and even in fights that he has won. He just doesn’t know how to check leg kicks.
Brown’s main strength is his striking but he is also an okay submission grappler. He lands 0.76 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 73 percent. I don’t consider him a great control grappler or anything, but he is competent and actually sneakily has three submission wins in the UFC. So it is not a path to victory to completely rule out for him.
I think Brown is a fine fighter. He can win fights on the feet and is a competent enough grappler where he can minimize the grappling success of others.
As far as this matchup goes, I don’t have strong opinions. I do think Brown has been beating worse fighters. Brown is beating guys like Dalby, Zaleski, Salikhov, and Turman. When he has stepped up in competition, he has lost and honestly has been destroyed. Holland has been fighting elite guys but again I can never trust Holland because he is an idiot and finds ways to lose.
My guess is these guys mostly strike, and I think it is competitive and both guys will have to adjust to fighting a long opponent. I still think Holland is more talented when they are at their best. I also think Holland is probably more durable as well. Brown has been hurt a lot. Holland is still pretty dang tough. I think Holland is more likely to hurt Brown or win by KO.
I still think this is close though and if it goes to a decision, we are probably bordering split decision territory. So I don’t have much to say. We probably get a competitive decision unless a random knockout or knockdown occurs which I think Holland is probably a little more likely to land.
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On DraftKings, this just feels like a super high-variance upside matchup.
I do trust Brown more at this stage of his career, but historically Holland wouldn’t be an easy matchup for him. I think Brown can win a decision but I’m really not sold he finds a finish easily.
I’m actually wondering if he looks to wrestle more here. He had some wrestling success against Bryan Battle a few fights back. It would make sense. If this is a pure striking fight, Brown can do random damage but it’s probably very competitive, and he might lose.
Brown is priced at 8.4k and I’m not dying to target him.
While he can score well in a finish, Brown is only +340 to win ITD in this matchup which is pretty poor. In his last few decisions, Brown has scored 67, 73 and 71 DK points, which is super mediocre.
Again, my hope is that he implements a wrestling attack, which could lead to better scores, but it’s just hard to trust. I don’t think Brown is a priority in this range ultimately. I can’t fault you for targeting him some and he seems like a viable, lower end secondary option. Holland has been looking worse lately.
From a projection standpoint, it’s harder to get there on Brown without real finishing equity. The more the odds move toward Holland, the lower owned Brown should be. I won’t be super high on him personally but he’s worth mild consideration if he’s rating out as direct leverage against Holland.
Conversely, Holland is priced at 7.9k and has the much better ITD line at +180.
Because of that, I think he’s the preferred target outright. Not only was Brown knocked out in his last fight, but he was dropped by Nicolas Dalby in the fight prior. He’s been subbed a couple of times too.
Holland is a moron and I really don’t know what kind of form he will come in with, but there’s potential for this to be chaotic in which case, he could score a random finish. Holland is a fine secondary option because of the finishing equity on paper.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the fight extended as well, with the Over 1.5 rounds prop set at -150. There’s a good chance both avoid wrestling. A decision on either side probably wouldn’t be enough to be optimal, and I would expect the fight to be highly competitive in that case.
So I think I lean slightly toward some other fights in this range if forced to choose. But I’ll certainly mix Holland in and playing him around the field percentage seems fair
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holland by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics
Fight Odds: Gamrot -188, Ribovics +163
Odds to end ITD: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Gamrot 8.6k, Ribovics 7.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a good fight in the lightweight division here as Esteban Ribovics will test himself against Mateusz Gamrot.
Ribovics isn’t bad. He is a 29-year old Argentinian fighter. Ribovics is 15-2 professionally and is now 4-2 in the UFC.
I mostly consider Ribovics a striker. He is aggressive and has good output and pace. He has good hooks, and I consider him a solid striker, capable of winning striking fights in the UFC. I like his cardio and he has some sneaky power as well. He will thrive when he can just outpace his opponents. He lands 8.09 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 6.30 in return so his defense is clearly an issue.
I don’t consider Ribovics a great offensive grappler. Again, he has some submissions on the regional scene, but it was against awful fighters. I don’t think he will outwrestle any average UFC level competition.
Ribovics also has historical defensive grappling issues but I think he has improved. In his UFC loss against Loik Radzhabov, he was taken down 11 times and controlled for 7:39. In his UFC win against Kamuela Kirk, he was taken down 3 times and controlled for 6:20. He was put in really bad positions in those fights as well and was mounted, body triangled, etc.
I do think Ribovics has improved as a defensive wrestler though, and he defends and works up better now. He defended all 8 takedowns against Elves Brener and is now defending takedowns at 70 percent. He has made clear improvements.
Overall though, Ribovics profiles as a very solid action striker who is definitely UFC level. Good grapplers will likely have success against him, but he can perform well if he gets fights that take place on the feet.
Ribovics will be taking on Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot is pretty good. He comes from a grappling background as he wrestled in his homeland of Poland. He also is a solid no gi BJJ competitor who has won several tournaments in Europe and has competed against some of the best grapplers in the world in ADCC. So he is a well-rounded grappler and it shows in his fights.
Gamrot lands 5.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts 15 takedowns per fight. Therefore, he is literally attempting a takedown every single minute which is a style that I love. I also love the style even more if someone has the cardio to implement it and Gamrot definitely does. This guy landed two takedowns in each round 4 and 5 against Arman Tsarukyan, so Gamrot’s cardio is clearly a strength of his. I really like his style of takedowns too. He goes to a lot of low singles which is extremely rare. Guys can’t really defend them as most mma fighters are trained to stop double legs and general single legs.
I just love Gamrot’s takedown consistency. He has taken down all 12 of his UFC opponents. In his 7 fights that have gone past round two, he has landed 5, 6, 4, 4, 11, 5, and 6 takedowns. That is just incredible consistency man. In a three round fight, you have to expect him to land at least a takedown per round.
I don’t think Gamrot’s top control is great but he has generally been trying to control really good grapplers. I definitely think he can control lesser grapplers in this division. He showed that against Ludovit Klein as well.
The weakness of Gamrot’s game is his striking. He only lands 3.29 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.96 in return. He does defend strikes at a decent 59 percent. Gamrot isn’t a terrible striker and he does have a little bit of power. However, he just doesn’t put up a ton of activity. He only landed 33, 52, 64, 57, and 65 significant strikes in his five fights that went to three round decisions. They were against good competition, but I just don’t totally love that activity. His competition has been stellar though and he actually straight up outboxed Ludovit Klein. So when he gets steps down in competition, he has shown he can strike a little bit.
Again, Gamrot is capable as he even struck competitively with Rafael Fiziev. He just doesn’t have a high ceiling as a striker though as his volume is just a bit limited.
Gamrot can be hurt. He has been knocked down five times in the UFC. He is very tough and won’t quit. However, I don’t like that he gets hurt consistently.
As far as this matchup goes, I just think Gamrot has more paths to victory. On the feet, this is close but I probably favor Ribovics on durability. However, Ribovics went life and death on the feet with Zellhuber and Brener who aren’t very good. So my guess is Gamrot can at least compete here.
The advantage Gamrot has is the wrestling. I think he can definitely land takedowns here, and low single takedowns are usually takedowns that non-wrestlers like Ribovics have never felt before. You saw that in the Gamrot/Klein matchup.
I do think Ribovics can stuff some takedowns though and work up at times. So my guess is Ribovics will have his chances on the feet where he can make things interesting.
Overall though, the striking is still likely competitive and Gamrot will likely mix in at least 3 takedowns over 15 minutes, so my guess is Gamrot separates on the scorecards with his wrestling game.
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On DraftKings, this is a really strong fight and one of the fights I’m most looking forward to.
Gamrot is the preferred target as the higher upside wrestler. He lands takedowns in volume, and I think he’ll need them here. If he cannot wrestle, and Ribovics can force striking exchanges, I honestly expect Ribovics to win.
So while this may not be the pure safety play you are looking for, Gamrot has clear upside in a win at 8.6k.
Gamrot is averaging 104 DK points per win, and he’s scored 117 and 131 in his last two decision wins. He’s only +400 to win ITD here but he doesn’t need a finish to reach the optimal lineup. While that kind of upside isn’t a lock, he probably has among the safest floors on the slate in a win, and among the better upside as well.
At 8.6k, in this kind of matchup, you can argue he’s one of the best plays on this slate. Ribovics has already been taken down 11 times in a fight, and our general analysis of him is that his takedown defense isn’t the strongest, but he can scramble up OK.
It simply sets up well for Gamrot in a win. I assume he’ll be chalky but at 8.6k, I don’t really see a way around this one. I’ll aim for moderate exposure and wouldn’t mind being overweight.
Ribovics is priced at 7.6k and is a viable target.
Honestly, my initial thought before digging into the matchup was to favor Ribovics. Gamrot recently lost to Dan Hooker, and Ribovics is one of the best pace strikers in the sport. Gamrot gets hurt all the time.
If Ribovics can defend takedowns and scramble, he may legitimately beat Gamrot up and win. Due to the binary nature of the matchup, I think he’s a solid secondary play.
However, the primary issue is that Gamrot doesn’t give up many points. He’s been knocked down five times, but he’s never been knocked out, and he actually won three of those matchups.
Gamrot is only allowing 9.6 DK points per five minutes, and in his losses, he’s still generally landing takedowns. He gave up 62, 66 and 56 points in his three decision losses, two of which included a knockdown.
So that’s my main concern with Ribovics. Even in a win, he might score 65 points. At 7.6k, on this slate, that’s probably not enough. He could also just lose.
Ribovics is +300 to win ITD and I do want some exposure to him in case he wins by knockout. I think it’s a possible outcome. But the floor concerns are enough to limit my exposure overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gamrot by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godinez
Fight Odds: Suarez -150, Godinez +130
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Suarez 8.5k, Godinez 7.7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Former top prospect Tatiana Suarez will get a solid matchup against another wrestler this weekend in Loopy Godinez.
I was very disappointed in Tatiana Suarez’s championship performance against Weill Zhang last year. And even though she bounced back with a win over Amanda Lemos, I thought she looked declined in that fight too. Now Suarez has a real test this weekend against Lupita Godinez.
I really thought Suarez was going to defeat Zhang. In Suarez’s prime, I do think Suarez could have won that fight. However, I clearly overestimated Suarez’s form. The injuries and time off clearly took a toll on Suarez and her physicality and athleticism looked declined.
Suarez still won round one against Zhang by landing takedowns and obtaining top time. I also thought Suarez had some good takedowns attempts later in the fight that would have taken down most of the division. However, Zhang’s physicality and improved wrestling was too much. I also just thought Suarez’s physicality and athleticism looked declined. I was also surprised Suarez could not scramble up from bottom position. That was not the same Suarez that battered Carla Esparza easily years back.
Even in Suarez’s current state, I still think she will win many fights in this division. In three rounds against Zhang, Suarez would have still gotten a round which is better than most women in this division could do. She also beat Lemos but again she slowed down in that fight and lost round three badly.
Coming from an advanced wrestling background, Suarez is still capable of landing takedowns and threatening with submissions. Her chain wrestling, back taking game and guillotine / front headlock series are still a threat. I think she will beat a lot of women in this division still. Her declined athleticism and bottom game scare me though.
Suarez is also not the most impactful striker in the world. She does a decent job staying out of danger and limiting engagements. If she gets stuck on the feet though she is at risk to lose many fights.
Overall, I just think Suarez is not what she once was. However, she will still beat the majority of this weight class with her grappling. I just don’t think she is the queen of this division anymore, which she probably was a few years back.
Suarez will get a perfect test here against Godinez. Godinez comes from a wrestling background, and I consider her an average wrestler for WMMA. Godinez lands 2.96 takedowns per 15 minutes and has the cardio to land takedowns for a full 15 minutes. I think Godinez can continue to beat below-average grapplers consistently at this level with volume wrestling alone. Godinez isn’t a great submission grappler though and only has a couple of submission wins in her career.
Godinez has some decent boxing and a bit of pop in her hands. I actually quite like her power and she has a strong overhand right. She lands 4.51 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.03 in return. She can have issues with experienced strikers but overall, I don’t mind her on the feet. I guess she is just average. She also had success and beat Jessica Andrade in a striking based decision so she is clearly capable.
Godinez defends takedowns at 81 percent and has overall decent takedown defense. I liked the way she scrambled up against Calvillo and Lookboonme when taken down as well. She did have her back taken while standing a couple of times by Jessica Penne, and Jandiroba got her back as well. However, I don’t consider her a liability defensively at all and she is generally tough to grapple.
I mean we saw what Jandiroba has done to every woman in this division and Jandiroba just took Ricci down six times last weekend. Jandiroba went two for nine on takedowns against Godinez and only obtained six minutes of control. I honestly thought it was an impressive defensive grappling performance by Godinez.
That is why I am going to pick Godinez to win here, and it is tough because I have always liked Suarez.
I do think Suarez can have some wrestling success early. She may get a couple takedowns and get a round. However, Godinez is physically strong and a good defensive wrestler, and Suarez has struggled with physicality and cardio in fights. My guess is Godinez will put up some defensive grappling resistance and that Suarez won’t always be in the driver’s seat in this fight.
That means Godinez will probably get some striking time where she is clearly a better striker and way more damaging. I just think Suarez will not always be in top position and when they are striking, Suarez will get damaged and the judges will lean Godinez on damage over control.
Maybe I am now underestimating Suarez. She is still a very solid wrestler. However, I just don’t trust her to dominate with wrestling as easily here and if she isn’t in total control, I don’t trust her to win. So Godinez is the pick.
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On DraftKings, this fight is arguably a fade.
I said the same thing last week in the Jandiroba vs. Ricci fight and I honestly thought Ricci would do a better job of neutralizing Jandrioba’s grappling. She simply could not defend the initial takedowns though.
In this situation, there’s a similar dynamic. I obviously love Suarez and I still think she’s quite likely to land 2-3 takedowns over three rounds, but Godinez does a good job of scrambling back to her feet and has fared OK against elite sub grapplers like Jandiroba and Dern.
Plus, the cardio dynamic is obviously in the favor of Godinez. While Suarez can land some takedowns, she’ll probably need lots of them to really put her stamp on rounds, and I’m just not sold she can do that anymore.
Suarez is priced at 8.5k and I’m probably going to aim to be light on her this week. We know her historic upside is elite, but she has not looked good in her last two fights, and she is now only +350 to win ITD.
In a win, Suarez can still score 80-90 points, that wouldn’t be a surprise. She needs some level of domination to score more than that and I simply don’t trust it.
Labeling Suarez as a secondary target overall is fine. Obviously I got burned last week going against Jandiroba, and we know that grappling scores well on DK. In mid-range builds, it’s fine to mix some Suarez in.
I just do not think she’s likely to hit a ceiling score this week, and without an early finish, she may very well underperform or lose. I’m not sure how the field will react but I will shy away personally.
Godinez is priced at 7.7k and is honestly my preferred target.
My big concern is that she lacks any upside whatsoever in this matchup either.
While Suarez has looked bad, she’s not really giving up a whole lot of offense. Lemos landed 23 strikes in 15 minutes. Obviously Suarez is the better wrestler in this matchup and on paper, probably shuts Godinez out.
With that said, maybe this is a higher variance situation than what’s on paper? If Godinez can scramble and defend takedowns early, maybe she will tire Suarez out quickly. At that point, maybe she can land takedowns of her own, or a bunch of strikes. Maybe a late TKO is in play.
Godinez is only +900 to win ITD so she’ll rate out horribly. We just saw a +900 ITD fighter land the most vicious knockout of the year a couple of slates ago (Grasso), and there’s a lot of variance in fighting.
Ultimately, on paper, I think Godinez is closer to a fade. She won’t project for much offense in a win or loss, and Suarez is a good defensive fighter who is also much bigger. Even if Godinez wins at 7.7k, there are so many live dogs that it probably won’t matter.
I think there’s a small percent chance of something fluky happening via Suarez gassing out and giving up a bunch of points late, but it’s hard to recommend any real exposure. I may use her as a contrarian pivot in this upper 7k range but she won’t be a priority.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Godinez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
MarQuel Mederos vs. Chris Padilla
Fight Odds: Padilla -155, Mederos +135
Odds to end ITD: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Padilla 8.7k, Mederos 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
Probably the most underwhelming and random matchup on this slate, MarQuel Mederos and Chris Padilla are somehow 8-0 in their combined promotional fights.
Padilla made his UFC debut as a sizable underdog to James Llontop in 2024, and pulled off the early upset, taking him down a few times and submitting him with a RNC.
Since then, he’s rattled off three more wins, including knockouts over Rongzhu and Ismael Bonfim, and a decision win over Jai Herbert.
I still think Padilla is a really tricky fighter to analyze and I don’t feel completely comfortable with his profile. He’s now 17-6 professionally at age 30, earning nine wins by knockout and five by decision.
He’s shown to have some power, but it was a random elbow against the cage that sent Bonfim down to the canvas most recently. And it’s coincidental that his least durable opponent, Jai Herbert, was able to go three rounds against Padilla without a problem, where the two fought at a super slow pace and neither landed 40 strikes.
Padilla is arguably better on the ground than he is on the feet, but his grappling game has been super inconsistent. He took down Llontop three times on three attempts, and he hasn’t landed a takedown since. He didn’t really try to wrestle against Bonfim or Rongzhu, and he went 0/6 takedowns against Herbert.
I think Padilla is capable of big moments, but he just doesn’t seem very consistent. If he can get to the back, great, he has submission upside. But he’s not wrestling at a high enough rate for me to be confident he can get there.
On the feet, I think he’s knockout capable, but I don’t particularly trust in his volume.
He’ll be taking on MarQuel Mederos who is 3-0 in the UFC after also winning on the Contender Series in 2023.
I wasn’t particularly high on Mederos though he’s a reasonable round winning striker, I really liked his last performance against Choinski.
Mederos beat the crap out of Choinski’s legs in that fight, landing 31 leg strikes in total. I thought Choinski would have a good shot to submit him, who was a D3 All-American wrestler with good BJJ. Choinski did take him down twice, and got mount and the back, but Mederos showed competent defense from there.
Previously, he pulled off an ultra-close split decision over Austin Hubbard where Mederos only landed 44 significant strikes, and prior to that he barely edged out a decision over Landon Quinones while landing 60 significant strikes.
That lack of consistent, effective offense is going to be an issue for me when projecting his fights. He’s currently landing 4.84 sig strikes per minute and doesn’t seem to have the capability to run away with rounds, though I will like him a lot better if he’s consistently attacking the legs.
He has shown a lot of power on the regional scene, earning six wins by TKO, but I don’t view him as a major power threat at the UFC level.
Mederos does move pretty well and has been able to control exchanges, where he’s only absorbing 2.99 sig strikes per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. He seems pretty durable as well.
As a wrestler, I don’t see Mederos having much success at this level. He’s 0/6 on takedowns through three fights, and he has no submissions on his record. He’s a BJJ purple belt and showed adequate defense when defending the RNC against Hubbard, and Choinski, but he still ultimately got put in that position which is moderately concerning.
This is an interesting matchup and I could make a case for both sides.
Padilla seems like the better moments fighter. He has more power on paper and definitely is the better submission grappler. Given that Mederos has been taken down and had his back taken multiple times, I think Padilla winning via wrestling would be a fairly realistic result.
However, I kind of think Mederos is the better striker. I think he moves better than Padilla, and I like his leg kicking game more than anything Padilla offers. I don’t really understand why Padilla is -180 to win this fight when the GTD line is also -180, as Padilla doesn’t really set up as a great round winner.
If Padilla is covering a heavy price tag, I think he’s probably winning ITD at a moderate rate. A submission seems viable. I wouldn’t bet on a knockout though maybe he can hurt Mederos.
If the fight goes the distance, I think Mederos is super live and I almost want to favor him outright. The one caveat is if he gets taken down too easily and gives up dominant rounds there, then so be it, but Padilla hasn’t had much recent wrestling success.
Padilla is also taking this fight on semi-short notice as Mederos was originally scheduled to fight Sadykhov. Padilla stepped in on March 20th so it has been a few weeks, but no a full camp.
On the feet, I just like the activity of Mederos a little bit more. I think he’ll stick and move, and his defense is solid. The leg kicks are enough to impact any fight and could swing the momentum of this matchup in his favor.
I’m going to pick Mederos here to stay safe, have a bit more success at range, and win a decision. Padilla is obviously live for moments and has real wrestling upside but I don’t fully trust it.
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On DraftKings, Padilla is priced at 8.7k and is dependent on an early finish.
If you think he has a realistic shot to win ITD, he’s a reasonable upside target. I personally don’t but I’m also mildly worried about the ground game, and would feel a little dumb missing out if Padilla just won by RNC in the first round.
Purely on the feet, I wouldn’t want to be chasing a Padilla knockout as Mederos limits exchanges and moves pretty well. Padilla is +240 to win ITD which is mediocre, but makes sense given the fight is likely to go the distance.
So in that sense, I’m not super high on Padilla. He may get some public love coming off four wins in a row, scoring 106, 98 and 112 among them, though his betting line is falling now, which I agree with.
I still think he’s a viable secondary target for the grappling possibility. I would only want to use him as a spot to cover a base though, and I don’t see it as a great matchup to invest and be over the field.
Mederos is priced at 7.5k and is another win equity target who’s more floor based than ceiling based.
Mederos is also 4-0 but he’s scored 86, 58, and 64 in his last three wins, which obviously isn’t super exciting at any price.
The one thing to give me pause is that he’s shown knockout power on the regionals. Those leg kicks could also lead to knockouts.
Mederos still doesn’t rate out extremely well as he’s +550 to win ITD, and I don’t think he needs to be a priority. He may get some love being undefeated in the UFC, but there are so many live dogs that I doubt he gets too much attention.
I just view Mederos as a fine secondary option. I think he can win, and he can score 80 points or so. I’ll probably prioritize some other underdogs for upside, but if you need to save a bit of salary, Mederos is a viable mix in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mederos by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vincente Luque
Fight Odds: Gastelum -285, Luque +245
Odds to end ITD: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Gastelum 9k, Luque 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun fight in the middleweight division as Kelvin Gastelum and Vicente Luque will bang it out on Saturday night. These guys have been around forever and have somehow never fought. I do want to point out that both of these guys are very much past their prime.
Gastelum is basically a wrestle-boxer. He is a decent striker and has some quick hands, and can throw in decent combination. He lands 3.67 significant strikers per minute and absorbs 3.53 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. Those aren’t great metrics. However, it is still a positive striking ratio and Gastelum’s competition has been stellar. I consider him a formidable striker who can hold his own in this division. He has reasonable power but nothing crazy.
Gastelum is also an okay wrestler. He lands 1.01 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is capable of landing spot takedowns and getting some positional control occasionally. However, I don’t consider him much more than average as a grappler, and he will struggle with grappling upside against above-average grapplers.
Gastelum is also very durable. He has never been knocked out in his pro career. He is a very tough guy and he is going to be a hard guy to put away.
I do think Gastelum has some sneaky weaknesses as a defensive wrestler and grappler though. He defends takedowns at 60 percent which is okay and he can fend off takedowns here and there. Gastelum isn’t a bad defensive wrestler. However, he can still be taken down and we have seen him struggle with guys who have heavy top games.
He has allowed guard passes and submissions in the past. Generally, only very good grapplers have owned Gastelum on the mat but I have always been semi-skeptical and nervous of that part of Gastelum’s game. I also want to point out that I didn’t think Gastelum looked great in his last matchup vs Stoltzfus. He still won by landing the bigger shots but it was a sloppy mess.
Gastelum will be taking on Vicente Luque. Luque is a well-rounded fighter, but he is primarily a striker. He lands 4.83 significant strikes per minute, and he has power. He is always live to win striking fights because of his come forward, high output, and big power style. He also has great calf kicks which can completely shut down his opponents. A good example of this was his fight against Randy Brown. He ate Brown’s legs alive.
Luque is very hittable though. He absorbs 5.30 significant strikes per minute and he only defends strikes at 51 percent. So he can lose rounds on the feet.
Luque is also a solid submission grappler. He is a brown belt in BJJ, and he has six submission wins in the UFC, all of them being a front headlock type of choke (Anaconda or D’Arce). He doesn’t offensively wrestle much though as he only lands 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes. So you can’t expect him to win fights often with takedowns and control.
However, Luque did land 8 takedowns against RDA which was incredibly random. I liked that he showed a new path to victory in that fight but he didn’t look great overall. Luque has okay defensive wrestling. He defends takedowns at 60 percent and has okay scrambling ability.
Luque is historically pretty durable but I am overall concerned that he is past his prime. He was knocked out for his first time against Geoff Neal somewhat recently. He then looked absolutely terrible against Joaquin Buckley and kind of gave up, and conceded to a ground-and-pound loss. He did bounce back with a recent win over Themba Gorimbo. However, I am just concerned he is a little past it and I don’t like how he has been getting hurt more often. The losses against Holland and Alvarez also just kind of showed that Luque is probably past it.
As far as this matchup goes, I favor Gastelum mostly because I consider him less washed. Luque has just looked so bad and although I think Gastelum has shown down too, he is still competing and recently defeated Daniel Rodriguez.
I also just think Gastelum is so much more durable at this point. Gastelum has never been knocked out and Luque has been conceding soft finishes. If someone randomly gets knocked out here, I think it will be Luque.
On the feet, I think it is competitive from a round winning perspective, but I favor Gastelum moreso on durability. I think Gastelum will probably just land more damaging shots because Luque can’t take shots as well anymore.
I don’t think either guy will dominate with wrestling but I honestly think Gastelum is a better wrestler at this point. I also probably favor Gastelum’s cardio.
I think Luque is dangerous enough to find a finish or club and sub but Gastelum is so hard to get out of there so Luque likely needs a decision to win. Although I think Luque can generally compete, I just don’t really trust him to win a decision without taking damage so Gastelum is the pick.
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On DraftKings, Gastelum is in an interesting spot here at 9k.
I’ve never been particularly high on Gastelum from a fantasy standpoint. He’s super small for the division, inconsistent, and he only scores 13.1 DK points per 5 minutes. He is averaging 87.6 DK points per win which is really low.
Historically, Gastelum only scores well when he wins early ITD, or when he wrestles heavily, which doesn’t happen all that often.
But he might be getting Luque at the right time. Luque is on the verge of retiring and has looked really bad in some recent losses. I do think he’s a fine offensive fighter still but especially when he gets grounded, he just concedes a ton of strikes. He’ll surely get finished again soon.
Gastelum is only +115 to win ITD here, which still isn’t that strong. He’s coming off a 63 point win. I really don’t expect Gastelum to be that popular.
Because of this, I think Gastelum is an intriguing top end play. He won’t rate out better for pure upside as someone like Pico, or Murzakanov, but he very arguably has the least durable opponent in front of him of that trio. At the least, I think Gastelum is a strong top-end pivot this week and it’s a matchup where he could flash a ceiling.
Luque is priced at 7.2k and is always viable for upside.
I honestly think Luque looks fine offensively. He’s still willing to throw down, and he’s always dangerous from the front headlock. He’ll be bigger than Gastelum.
I could see something weird happening, and Luque does average 109 DK points per win which is a ton. I don’t think he’s an awful low-end play.
However, Luque is still +245 to win and +600 to win ITD. Gastelum is historically super durable, and he’s never been knocked out. Maybe Luque has a better shot to take him down and submit him but that’s tough to trust.
It’s really tough to prioritize Luque this week, and I think the tier above him has a much better chance to come through. He’s still a viable dart throw type of target but I won’t expect to end up with too much exposure this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gastelum by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado
Fight Odds: Radtke -170, Prado +145
Odds to end ITD: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Radtke 8.8k, Prado 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
We kick off the PPV with a fun short notice bout between Charles Radtke and Francisco Prado. Let’s dive in.
Charles Radtke has not been afraid to step up into big fights or play the role of the bad guy in the UFC. The polarizing “Chuck Buffalo” has been booed in Canada, called the Australian crowd words I can’t repeat and has not been afraid to be in the spotlight.
He made his debut with a 7-3 record back in 2023 and has since gone 4-2 with the promotion. You never want to see losses on a prospect’s resume but they can be slightly forgiven as he was knocked out by both Carlos Prates and Mike Malott when he took that step up in competition.
However, when he isn’t taking that step up, Radtke has done well, gathering wins against Blood Diamond, Gilbert Urbina, Matthew Semelsberger and Daniel Frunza. He started slow against Blood Diamond, winning a slow paced decision in Australia. But he has since turned it up, winning his last three by way of emphatic finish.
He showed power in round one knockouts of Semelsberger and Urbina, but it was his last win against Frunza that showed my favorite part of Radtke’s game, as he took Frunza down three times, amassed almost 12 minutes of control time and submitted him in the third round.
His grappling is actually pretty solid. He is sticky from top position, has a black belt in BJJ and has three submission wins under his record. He doesn’t always utilize it, as he has fallen in love with his hands, but he has a 30% TD accuracy and is averaging 1.32 TDs per 15 minutes.
His striking is also solid, but he is a better moment than minute winner, earning five wins by KO and only averaging 2.8 strikes per minute. He is willing to fight at a slower pace to land the big shots and was caught on the outside by fighters with superior footwork like Malott and Prates. He has been hurt before so we can question his durability, as he’s been KO’d in three of his losses, including once on the regional scene to a fighter who is now 8-3.
I also don’t know what to think about his cardio. He hasn’t looked horrible in the later rounds but also hasn’t fought at that high of a pace. I don’t know how he will fare in a brawl and we’ve only seen him later in fights twice in the UFC, and those were in contests where he was able to have an edge on the mat.
So I still have my questions about Radtke and his steps up in competition, but I do think he is a really solid and well-rounded fighter. I don’t mind his power striking, he can find the chin, hits hard and even works the body well. But he has poor volume, can be hit on the outside and I actually prefer his grappling overall, as he is a solid wrestler and jiu-jitsu practitioner.
I just wish he utilized that grappling more often as that is often his best path in fights, and I still want him to shore up his striking volume and defense.
Francisco Prado hasn’t had the UFC tenure he’d hoped for so far in the UFC, but has put on some entertaining matchups to make up for it.
Prado actually has more performance bonuses than wins so far in the UFC, as he has won performance of the night and fight of the night honors, despite his 1-4 record with the promotion. He made his debut as an 11-0 prospect when he took on Jamie Mullarkey back in 2023. He was ultimately bested by decision as he was outstruck 59-28 and taken down three times, showing some toughness but the ability to lose minutes from range.
He was able to bounce back with a highlight reel KO over Ottman Azaitar in July of 2023 but has unfortunately gone 0-3 since then, losing all three of them by decision. In his last matchup, he was outpointed in a close split decision to Nikolay Veretinnikov, which showed a few issues for the Argentinian.
He actually made the move up to 170 pounds the fight prior against Jake Matthews, but it has shown in these last two bouts that he is a bit undersized for the weight class. One could argue that he was even smaller at 155, but at 170 it’s easier to see, as he was outranged and outmuscled by Matthews and Veretinnikov in both matchups.
At his core, Prado is a knockout artist. He has a 100% finish rate split between 7 KOs and 7 submissions, but his last three wins have all come by knockout and all of them came in the very first round. He has a ton of power and is willing to eat one to give one. He is currently absorbing 4.95 strikes per minute to his 4.09 landed, and it’s that willingness to land the bigger shots that has cost him minutes in the past. However, when Prado connects, he does hit very hard.
Additionally, he is extremely durable, having never been finished. Just like his teammate Esteban Ribovics, that Argentinian toughness is a real thing and something that he depends on in his matchups. I also think his cardio is pretty solid, but he looked pretty poor in his last matchup so maybe it’s been over blown, but he has shown the ability to last all 15 minutes.
The big question about Prado is his ground game. He has 7 submission wins and has landed 4 takedowns in his last 2 fights, but it doesn’t seem to be his strong suit. He does struggle with control and is a fighter that is more submission over position on the mat. Additionally he is struggling to get it there at this level and is currently only landing 0.94 takedowns at a 19% takedown accuracy.
Conversely, his defensive ground game has been an issue. He’s defending takedowns at 50% and Jamie Mullarkey was able to take him down and control him for 5 minutes in his debut.
Overall, Prado is a durable, hard-hitting Argentinian that will push forward and look to take your head off. He’s got solid cardio, great durability and enough power to shut your lights off. But he is undersized for this division and can be stuck at range, where he is often losing minutes unless he fights the big power shots. I would like to see him improve his wrestling or show he can close distance more effectively before trusting him too much at the UFC level.
I think this is a good fight. Although Radtke plays the role of the bad guy, I have been pretty high on him in the past, especially in his steps down in competition. I backed him pretty heavily in his fights against Urbina, Blood Diamond and Frunza and I thought he had a clear edge in a particular part of MMA in those match-ups. I would still consider him to have a clear edge in the grappling here. If he were to go to his grappling early and often, we have seen Prado taken down and controlled, and Radtke should have a clear size and physicality edge at this weight class.
It’s just that aside from the Frunza fight, we’ve seen him willing to trade and I would have to favor the pressure and durability of Prado if this fight were to remain on the feet. Both strikers are heavy hitting and low volume, but I would expect Prado to take the front foot, be able to take a shot better and probably have more volume, although neither guy is fighting at too hectic of a pace.
I would also argue Prado has the better cardio but that I’m not completely sold on that either. So yes, there are ways for Prado to win this. He could defend takedowns (or not face any in the first place), be the fighter on the front foot and look to land big shots. We have seen Radtke broken before. But if Radtke has half a brain, there is a HUGE grappling path and he should be able to win the wrestling and BJJ quite decisively.
I think the difference in the striking is far less than the difference in the grappling, and the easiest path for either fighter is Radtke to dominate the wrestling exchanges. So sure, this is a higher variance matchup in my eyes, but I have to back Radtke to keep up in the striking and utilize his grappling to stay safe and avoid the power Prado has. Give me the “Chuck Buffalo” here
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On DraftKings, this is a bit of a tricky spot as Radtke has been very inconsistent.
I said it from the moment he entered the UFC. He’s legit on the ground but he doesn’t like to grapple. Now, he’s coming off his most dominant ground performance in years and I wonder if that will make him more willing to grapple further.
I am also not certain Radtke can dominate in the same fashion here as he did against Frunza. He should be able to land takedowns but Frunza is worse on his back than Prado is.
On the feet, I generally agree that Prado has shown more durability. But I don’t hold it against Radtke for losing to Malott and Prates, and I still think he’s a decent boxer.
Radtke is priced up to 8.8k and I think he’s a decent play, but a risky one. He’s coming off a 119 point DK score, and his previous win scored 117. So he can certainly flash upside.
Radtke is only +210 to win ITD here though, which is my big concern. Although ground domination from start to finish is possible, I’m not super sold on it.
I’m happy to mix Radtke in this week but I don’t view him as an outright priority. If he has a much better ITD line, I would consider him a much better play. In a fight that’s -205 to go Over 1.5 rounds, you’re playing with fire a bit.
I’ll mix in Radtke as a secondary target this week but there are fighters above and below him who are arguably more clear priorities.
Prado is priced at 7.4k and is viable.
He’s not an awful fighter. He can bang, and Radtke is inconsistent. If this was a pure striking fight, I would consider it pretty competitive. I’m still not sure I outright favor Prado in that kind of fight but he could win it, and he’d have some knockout equity.
I don’t think he has much grappling equity though, and I’m also not sold on the pacing of this fight.
I find it extremely interesting that Prado is actually +170 to win ITD, which is a much better line than Radtke’s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that close more closely to Radtke’s line, but it’s indicative of some finishing upside.
At 7.4k, sure, you can play some Prado.
I only consider him a low end target, and I’m not especially convinced he’s going to produce a ton of offense in this matchup. He shouldn’t be super popular though, and there’s mild finishing equity on paper.
I’ll probably just aim to be near the field on this one but Prado is a fine salary saver to mix in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Radtke by Decision (Confidence=Low)