UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez QUICK PICKS – SPONSORED BY SUPERDRAFT
Welcome to the UFC Quick Picks!
You may have heard the announcement, but DailyFanMMA.com is now sponsored by SuperDraft.io, and going forward I will be using SD multipliers as my method for selecting which fighters to talk about. Of course, the information can still be easily applied to other sites throughout the industry, but will only focus on SD multipliers in this particular article.
If you HAVE NOT tried SuperDraft yet… now is the perfect time to sign up.
If you Sign Up HERE – you can get $20 FOR FREE to play with. If you use the Promo Code ufcbrett upon sign up, you can score an additional $20 with a $100 deposit.
SuperDraft is a fast growing platform and I am stoked to be partnered with them, they are supporting us so let’s support them in return!
For full breakdowns of every fight on the slate, a 1 hour podcast, rankings, projections, betting content and more, you can find that all on DailyFanMMA.com.
Louis Cosce, 1.75x
We have a huge list of high-upside targets on this slate, and with my Champion spot, I am looking for a combination of safety and upside. My preferred target will be Louis Cosce who carries a 1.75x multiplier.
Cosce is not as big a favorite as Valentina Shevchenko, but he is currently -475 to win against Sasha Palantikov, and carries a heavy ITD line of -245. To take it a step further, Cosce is actually -105 to win in Round 1, which is an incredible prop.
Cosce is 7-0 professionally and has earned all seven of his wins by first round knockout, and is fighting an opponent who has been knocked out in both of his professional losses.
With a 1.75x multiplier, Cosce rates out as my highest projected fighter on the slate, he carries enormous early knockout upside, volume potential and strong win equity. Though he doesn’t need to be forced into the Champion spot, I definitely am considering Cosce among my top options this week.
TOP TIER TOURNAMENT PLAY
Daniel Rodriguez, 1.15x
One of my other favorite top-tier options will be Daniel Rodriguez at 1.15x, and I’m hoping he slides a bit under the radar this week given the high number of quality fighters in this tier.
I expect many to play Cosce, Shevchenko, Figueiredo and Buckley, but Rodriguez rates out among the best for me. What I like most about him is that he has multiple paths to a big score, unlike some of the other fighters who are more dependent on a knockout.
Rodriguez has incredible volume upside, he has already landed 175 significant strikes in three rounds before and is averaging more than eight significant strikes per minute currently. Rodriguez is a -320 favorite over Nicolas Dalby on Saturday and holds a +110 ITD line, which is solid but not elite compared to some other fighters.
However, Rodriguez doesn’t necessarily need that finish. A knockout would be a strong result, but Rodriguez can also pour on the volume and potentially mix in a knockdown as well. At 1.15x, I think he has among the highest floors on the entire slate in a victory, and carries tremendous upside as well.
Whereas I might force in Shevchenko or Buckley on other sites, Rodriguez is where I will take a stand on SuperDraft for his volume upside, which gives him both a strong floor and ceiling.
MID TIER TOURNAMENT PLAY
Brandon Moreno, 1.25x
With many fights projected to end inside the distance, the mid-tier this week is fun to play around with, and I see a lot of quality options.
One of my personal favorites is Brandon Moreno at 1.25x, and I expect him to be in a super high paced scrap against Brandon Royval. Moreno is only -175 to win and only +260 to end ITD, so he doesn’t jump out as a great finisher or a safe play.
However, this fight is about exchanges. The higher the pace, the more exchanges that will be had, which creates more opportunity for fantasy points. Royval is extremely aggressive, and better yet, he lacks defensive skills both on the feet and on the mat.
When Royval wins, it’s likely to come inside the distance and I like him on this slate as well, but I think Moreno’s skills are sharper and he’s more defensively sound. If and when he wins this fight, based on the high number of exchanges, I think it’s likely he can land a high number of significant strikes, or takedowns.
There’s also a chance he can mix in a finish or perhaps earn a knockdown, based on Royval’s style. For a 1.25x multiplier, Moreno has more than enough upside for me to chase on this card.
Jared Gooden, 1.45x
Making his UFC debut Saturday, I believe Jared Gooden holds some value on SuperDraft with a 1.45x multiplier.
Gooden is fighting Alan Jouban, who is approaching 40 years of age, and has questionable durability at this stage of his career. Gooden is going to pressure him and hunt for the knockout early. Now, to be fair, I am actually picking Jouban to win, but I do prefer Gooden as the play on SD.
Gooden is only +130 to win, and he has an ITD line of +250 which is quite strong. When he wins, I think the majority of time it will likely come from an early knockout. The bottom line is that Gooden has a reasonable shot to win this fight, and he carries legitimate knockout upside and SuperDraft upside when that victory occurs. The fact that he’s 1.45x is just a bonus, and it only increases his floor and ceiling.
When you are dipping into the bottom tier this week, Gooden is one of my favorite options.