UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont QUICK PICKS – SPONSORED BY SUPERDRAFT
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Today we’ll be sharing four (4) of our favorite plays on SuperDraft, three from myself and two from our team member AJ Schullo!
Brandon Davis, 2.2x
*Written by AJ Schullo
It’s only fitting that Brandon Davis’s return to the UFC tops the list for our champion play on SuperDraft this weekend.
In all seriousness, Davis is in a winnable matchup this Saturday against the surging Danaa Batgerel, and is priced at 2.2x at the Champion spot.
Davis is only a +132 underdog indicating a 43.1% chance of winning this matchup. But also, his 2.2x multiplier is intriguing in a win scenario, based on how active he fights.
Davis attempts 13.29 significant strikes per minute and will hold the length advantage over Batgerel, which should help Davis at distance.
Davis is also the more varied striker and more willing wrestler in this matchup. Those are two advantages that could easily win him this fight, as Batgerel is relatively predictable on the feet and has shown issues defending takedowns in the past.
All in all, Davis makes for a viable consideration as a Champion, considering his low ownership, win probability, value, and upside in a victory.
TOP TIER TOURNAMENT PLAY
Manon Fiorot, 1.1x
*Written by AJ Schullo
Next up, we’ll hone in on the -225 favorite, Manon Fiorot, who takes on the very tough Mayra Bueno Silva and is priced at 1.1x in the top range.
Fiorot is an excellent striker with phenomenal metrics. So far in the UFC, she’s attempting 16 significant strikes per minute with 80% striking defense.
Bueno Silva is a powerful and willing opponent, but she historically defends strikes at 47% while absorbing 4.89 per minute.
Fiorot will have plenty of opportunities to land various techniques at distance, which could spell a stoppage, as evidenced by her +160 wins inside the distance prop.
Comparing Fiorot to other fighters in the 1.1x multiplier tier, she rates out as the best option, considering Jim Miller and Ludovit Klein are very “boom or bust” considering their lack of volume.
Fiorot’s odds to win and potential volume make her a very viable target in the top range for 1.1x this weekend.
MID TIER TOURNAMENT PLAY
Aspen Ladd, 1.2x
The Main Event this weekend between Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont is one of my favorite fights to target on SuperDraft.
Ladd is a slight favorite at -134, and carries a 1.2x multiplier in the Flex position. Though she’s not the most dominating volume fighter, I do expect Ladd to produce a ton of offense if she is to win. That could either come in the form of a TKO on the ground, takedowns, or many strikes landed throughout 25 minutes.
Her multiplier of 1.2x isn’t incredible, but I think it’s enough for her to be competitive with the optimal lineup in a victory on Saturday.
Dumont is very much in play at 1.35x in the Flex, or even at 2.05x as a Champion. Her path to victory is probably to keep the fight standing and land damaging strikes, but over 25 minutes her volume expectation is quite high as well.
I don’t have a strong opinion as to who wins, though I favor Ladd. However, I won’t ignore Dumont in my tournament portfolio this weekend, as her multiplier and striking upside are quite high. She might be lower owned than Ladd too, which presents an opportunity for us to be overweight on her, and this fight as a whole.
Luana Carolina, 1.6x
There are several value plays I like this weekend, though we already talked about Brandon Davis – Nunes and Sanchez make for intriguing options as well.
I also like Luana Carolina at 1.6x, and I prefer her more on SD than on any other fantasy site.
I’m not particularly high on her skills, but Godinez is stepping up a weight class here and will be at a huge size disadvantage. Carolina’s path to victory is to land strikes in volume at range, and she’s already topped the 100 strike mark in a UFC bout.
With this 1.6x multiplier, if Carolina wins, I would expect a huge score. Her +185 line to win will make me limit my exposure, but I expect her to be very low owned, and she carries massive upside.
Plus, the fight as a whole is -160 to go the distance, so hopefully Carolina’s 15 minutes of action can produce a nice floor. I like the value range this week, and I’m even willing to take a deep flier on Carolina at 1.6x based on her volume potential in this matchup.