UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 (1/13/24)
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Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
Fight Odds: Ankalaev -545, Walker +400
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Ankalaev 9.4k, Walker 6.8k
Weight Class: 205
Friends, the UFC is officially back! And we start the year off with a violent main event between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker, who will look to settle the score after their first fight was ruled a No Contest back in October.
That match only lasted a few minutes, though it felt like Ankalaev was in control. Walker did land a few hard inside leg kicks, but was met with a brutal body shot that crumpled him briefly.
Walker responded with a flying knee attempt while hurt, which led to Ankalaev clinching him, and dragging him down. From there, Ankalaev was in the midst of establishing control, and landing ground-and-pound. In that sequence, Ankalaev landed an illegal shot, and although it didn’t seem to have too much of an impact on Walker, the referee stepped in and declared the fight over.
It was a rough result for Ankalaev, who had only barely escaped with a draw against Jan Blachowicz in one of the more boring title fights in recent memory last December, and his inability to press down on the gas pedal has long been one of his attributes that’s made me nervous.
He’s a very talented fighter, and surely one of the best in this light heavyweight division, but he’s fumbled the bag on multiple occasions, and hasn’t been the most exciting daily fantasy asset either.
Ankalaev is a pretty sound kickboxer, averaging 3.56 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 2.20 in return with a 59 percent defensive rate.
In 11 UFC bouts, Ankalaev has only allowed 50 or more significant strikes TWICE, and both of those came in five-round matchups. Thiago Santos landed 60 strikes in a slow paced decision, and Blachowicz recently landed 55. Opponents simply are not scoring much on Ankalaev.
He’s also a very capable wrestler, but only averages 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at a strong 86 percent. Ankalaev has never really chosen to advance position on the mat, but instead he’ll look to land heavy ground-and-pound, and he can be fairly dominant in top position because of it.
My issue of course is that he’s just not producing enough offense. Landing 1 takedown per 15 minutes is criminal for Ankalaev’s game, especially in this division where he’ll face so many weak defensive grapplers.
His lack of striking output is frustrating too, though at times he can be aggressive. He knocked out Ion Cutelaba in round one both times they fought, but very rarely pushes the pace and instead chooses to fight more defensively over an extended period.
Still, Ankalaev is a tough opponent to fight because of this style. Few can land big strikes on him, or in volume. Few can land takedowns. He’s fought to some more competitive decisions than we’ve expected, but he’s largely cleanly beaten every opponent he’s faced.
Next up will be the wild man Johnny Walker, who’s known for knocking dudes out cold in round one, or getting stonewalled himself.
Prior to the recent NC, Walker was actually coming off a decision win over Anthony Smith, but that fight was ugly and Walker mostly kicked Smith in the legs from distance. Otherwise, all six of Walker’s wins in the UFC have come by first round KO, and two of them have come inside the first minute.
He’s a good athlete, with explosive power, and he’s been very willing to fight aggressively early and hunt for that KO. Unfortunately, regression (or lack of defense) hit him hard, and Walker suffered four losses in a span of five fights that included two KO losses and four KDs absorbed.
I also wouldn’t consider Walker to be a strong wrestler, offensively or defensively. He lands 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 57 percent. His submission game is alright, but mostly, he’ll be at a disadvantage against any decent wrestler.
We’ve also long questioned his cardio, and durability. He struggles over 15 minutes unless he’s fighting someone with the pace of a snail. He does not absorb damage well. He also is defending strikes at a very poor 46 percent rate.
It sets up well for another Ankalaev victory, to be quite honest, especially with the change of format to five rounds, instead of three.
Over 25 minutes, Ankalaev projects as the superior striker, who should be winning exchanges and landing more volume. Ankalaev should be the far superior wrestler, and he should have better cardio and durability too.
Walker most likely needs an early knockout to win this fight. It’s not impossible given Walker’s athleticism and explosiveness, along with general variance. Ankalaev has been knocked down before too.
Even when he was hurt in the last fight, that flying knee attempt by Walker looked pretty freaking dangerous. It will only take one shot from him to put Ankalaev’s lights out.
But I just like Ankalaev’s defensive numbers and trust him to stay clean mostly.
I suppose Walker could also win an ugly, slow paced decision similar to what we saw against Smith. If Ankalaev simply won’t produce offense, then sure, Walker won’t get as tired and could make rounds competitive.
Those leg kicks he was landing against Ankalaev early looked to be impactful. If I was him, I would lean on that technique. It theoretically gives him round winning equity, but more realistically, it’s the easiest shot for him to land consistently on Ankalaev that may cause damage, and potentially turn the momentum in his favor.
I just think Ankalaev is a much better technical striker overall, and he’s likely to land cleanly on Walker at points. A knockout at any point, early or late, is quite possible for Ankalaev.
He should also look to wrestle against Walker, which should allow him top position and also will tire Walker out as well. Ankalaev may not find a finish on the mat, but I respect his ground-and-pound and it could easily lead to a stoppage.
I consider Walker mostly an IQ test for Ankalaev, which he just failed to be fair. Anything can happen in this LHW division, but Walker only profiles as a big-shot striker, and I don’t think it’s likely that he can turn his style into a win this weekend.
On DraftKings, Ankalaev is a very strong target at 9.4k, though he has underwhelmed in five-round matchups before.
Ankalaev scored only 80 points in a five-round decision win over Thiago Santos in 2022, and then scored 84 points in a five-round draw against Jan Blachowicz later that year.
It’s possible that Ankalaev will choose to fight at a slow pace, and that a newfound Johnny Walker will also choose to fight at a slow pace, landing leg kicks from afar for 25 minutes. This is the main scenario that would kill off the upside for Ankalaev.
However, it seems more likely that the matchup plays out in a more violent fashion, and ends relatively early. Walker has early, explosive, KO ability. Ankalaev already hurt Walker in the early moments, and could potentially dominate on the mat too.
The overall ITD line is -600. The winner is going to project for a very strong, safe score with tournament winning upside.
The challenge with Ankalaev is that he’s expensive, and there’s a couple other guys in this price range who project to win ITD early. For that reason, you could choose to prioritize them over Ankalaev.
Ankalaev is safer though, given the five round potential, larger sample size and grappling equity. And he still carries a massive ITD number at -300. He’ll be quite popular of course, but is ultimately one of the better tournament options on the slate overall.
I will want to spread my exposure out in this range personally, but Ankalaev is likely the safest click of the group.
Walker at 6.8k is an easy click in large-field tournaments, though he’d only take up a small percentage of my portfolio.
If he wins, it’s very likely to come ITD and early. He’s so cheap and he’ll carry leverage against a much more popular Ankalaev. His finishing prop is lined at +475.
I don’t think Walker wins, and I won’t target him heavily with a limited number of lineups. But he’s very likely to top 100 points in a win, and he’ll always have a path to victory given his style. Getting some exposure to him in tournaments for his finishing upside makes sense, though as a massive dog, paying up further for more win equity is preferred.
Fight Prediction: Ankalaev by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape
Fight Odds: Kape -267, Nicolau +220
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Kape 9k, Nicolau 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a rematch here between solid flyweight talents Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau. These two fought back in March of 2021 and Nicolau was the winner by split decision in a fight that every media outlet awarded to Kape. It was a very competitive fight. I did think Kape deserved the win though.
Kape outlanded Nicolau 61-55 in significant strikes but landed no takedowns while Nicolau landed 2 takedowns. The first round was an easy round to score for Nicolau after he landed a takedown and secured some top position.
The second round was easily Kape’s as he landed the more impactful strikes and was the aggressor. The third round was the split round and it was very close. It took place on the feet where both guys landed a similar amount of strikes, but I did think Kape was the aggressor and landed the bigger shots.
That was a weird fight because I thought Kape looked like the more dangerous guy throughout, and he could have run away with the fight had he wanted to. Kape just got passive at times and even failed to take easy top position in round 3 when Nicolau was on his back, which would have likely easily secured Kape the round. I more so think Kape fought stupidly and gave the fight away more than anything.
I don’t mind Kape though and he has won 4 straight fights since that loss. He has some skills and he is a good athlete.
I mostly consider Kape a striker. He does a good job springing in and out of range with his strikes. He has a good low rear kick and sharp / fast hands. I consider him to have above-average power for this weight class and two of his four UFC wins have come by knockout.
Kape lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.51. That isn’t great. However, he has generally fought good guys.
I will say that the Pantoja fight was a little concerning to me. The fight took place exclusively at range and Kape only landed 49 of 91 distance strikes attempted.
That is just concerning. I know Pantoja is good so I will forgive Kape to a degree. However, Kape is not exactly a guy I will be very confident in winning on the feet if he isn’t landing big shots.
I don’t think he is necessarily a KO or bust fighter and his volume has looked okay in other fights. He actually just landed 112 significant strikes against Dos Santos. However, I am less confident in Kape if he isn’t landing power shots, which aren’t always easy to predict and sometimes just don’t happen.
I consider Kape a decent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 77 percent and is pretty athletic and hard to get ahold of. However, he has been outgrappled in spots on the regional scene. He was also held down for a bit against Nicolau. I don’t think Kape is a major defensive grappling liability but I do think good grapplers can have success against him.
Kape isn’t the best offensive wrestler but he has decent timing on takedowns. He attempts about 2 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed 3 takedowns in 14 UFC rounds. I think he is capable of landing takedowns here and there. However, it isn’t a path to victory that seems very reliable for him especially vs competent defensive grapplers.
Kape will be taking on Matheus Nicolau. Nicolau is a well-rounded fighter. I have always thought that he was pretty good.
Nicolau is a competent and technical striker. He lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.14 in return. He also defends strikes at a solid 66 percent. Nicolau has good boxing and some good hands. I also think he is very crafty defensively.
My issue with Nicolau on the feet is that he doesn’t have an incredibly high ceiling. He was outlanded at distance by Kape. He only outlanded Elliott at distance 64-62. He went 33-33 at distance against David Dvorak. Nicolau just doesn’t put up an incredibly high work rate against competent strikers. So I am always a bit worried that he will be in close fights on the feet even if he is the more technical and skilled striker.
Nicolau has some okay power for the weight class and has landed 8 knockdowns in 9 UFC fights.
Nicolau is a decent wrestler. Defensively, he has been great and defends takedowns at 93 percent. Offensively, he lands 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 3 takedowns per fight. He has some decent timing on his takedowns. He only controlled Manel Kape for 2:31 seconds while landing 2 of 9 takedowns attempted. I think he is capable of landing some takedowns here and there in this weight class. He can ride out position against guard players as well.
I really do worry about Nicolau’s chin though. He barely even gets hit and has been knocked dead twice in the UFC, and hurt several times. He was also just brutally knocked out in his most recent matchup against Brandon Royval. Even Kape hurt him a couple of times in their matchup. Kape also seems very durable and his durability advantage alone is enough for me to favor him in this matchup. I just think Kape has a very good chance to hurt or knock Nicolau out. I would be pretty shocked if Nicolau knocked Kape out.
I also just think Kape is a more effective striker. Nicolau can probably compete numerically but Kape just lands harder and is more aggressive.
I do think Nicolau could maybe land a takedown again, or at least slow the fight down and strike competitively with Kape, so Nicolau has a chance to win. I still think Kape is hard to take down though, and I just think Nicolau doesn’t land enough strikes for me to be confident in him winning rounds clearly on the feet.
Kape may be dumb and not put up enough action. However, Kape has been more aggressive lately, and I do think he is the more dangerous striker here so I will go with Kape to get revenge in this one.
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On DraftKings, Kape will be knockout or bust at his price of 9k and I’m not super inclined to load up on him in this spot.
The issue is just with pacing, a lack of grappling equity, and honestly a respectable talent in front of him in Nicolau. Kape would have scored 58 DK points had he beaten Nicolau the first time, which is awful.
Also, I’m worried that even a second or third round KO might not score Kape enough points to be optimal. If he gets held down for minutes early, he won’t be landing strikes. And if he’s not literally winning by KO, there’s just no guarantee of striking volume.
So it’s possible that Kape not only needs a KO, but a very early KO to contend for the optimal. He is +145 to win ITD in this matchup which I suppose seems fair, but it’s not a metric that jumps off the page.
There are several fighters priced above Kape who I prefer and would rather pay up for if I have the money. In general, Kape is a boom or bust target who is a bit too expensive.
Still, he is likely going to the be the striking aggressor and the outcome he needs is possible. Nicolau was just knocked out by Royval in round one. So I’m not saying we have to fade or ignore Kape. He’s just not an overwhelming priority and he’ll carry a lot of risk in an extended fight.
Nicolau at 7.2k is a boring option, if nothing else. He is talented enough to stay competitive and potentially win this fight, which is one positive.
Also, a victory for Nicolau likely comes with grappling and control, so his path to victory has some upside to it.
However, he’s low-volume on the feet and not enough of a grappling dominator to get me excited. He only scored 71 points in a win in the first matchup, and he’s +675 to win ITD in this rematch.
I don’t hate Nicolau at 7.2k, as he saves salary and there’s a decent chance he can extend the fight at least. I don’t think he carries a great offensive floor or ceiling though, and there are other options nearby who I would prioritize personally. Just a low-end secondary target that you can mix in a bit, if you want.
Fight Prediction: Kape by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
Fight Odds: Miller -138, Benitez +120
Odds to Finish: -275
DraftKings Salaries: Miller 8.2k, Benitez 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun matchup here between UFC veterans Gabriel Benitez and Jim Miller.
Benitez is a skilled striker with awesome kicks. He lands 4.79 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.05 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 65 percent. Those are respectable metrics. I consider him a solid striker for this division, and he is always dangerous at range.
Benitez doesn’t really try to win fights in any other way besides striking though, which I don’t love. He lands 0.27 takedowns per 15 minutes so he isn’t reliable to land takedowns to win fights. He defends takedowns at 58 percent which isn’t great. However, he is decent at scrambling to his feet once taken down.
I will say though. Benitez’s fight against Billy Quarantillo was a bit concerning. Billy put on a hard pace, pressured Benitez and was just able to beat Benitez up. Benitez was outlanded on the feet 61-44 at distance, dropped, and was just taken down / beat up on the mat. It wasn’t a great look for Benitez. Benitez has also been knocked out by Andre Fili, Sodiq Yusuf, and David Onama in the past so his durability is a bit questionable.
Benitez will be taking on Jim Miller. How can one not like Jim Miller? He is a humble dude and a family man. He also has been doing this whole UFC thing for such a long time. He is an easy guy to root for and I always want to see him win from a human / fan perspective. However, from a betting / analytical perspective, I have not been as high on him as others as he has some flaws in his game.
Miller lands 2.86 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.08 in return. Miller just does not have a ton of volume on the feet, and I do not really trust him to win striking rounds.
Miller also tires out a bit and is generally not nearly effective as a fighter in later rounds. It shows in his results as well. Miller has lost his last 7 fights that have gone to decision. He has not won a decision in nearly 6 years. In those 7 decision losses, Miller has only broken 60 significant strikes twice.
Miller is a good submission grappler. He lands 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is capable of landing takedowns and threatening with submissions, especially from the back. However, I again do not trust him to implement a wrestling gameplan for 15 minutes and win a decision, as he simply doesn’t have the best cardio to do it. His wrestling becomes less effective as the fight goes on.
Miller also has bad takedown defense which often gets overlooked. Miller defends takedowns at 48 percent and generally can be held down for very long stretches.
Look, Miller is 8-9 in his last 17 fights. His 8 wins have all come inside the distance, against AWFUL competition, and generally in the first round. I still think Miller is dangerous and opportunistic early. He is capable of landing hard punches or locking in an opportunistic submission. I will always respect that path to victory for him especially against low tier competition. However, I do not trust him to win fights at this level unless he gets that early finish. So it is hard to trust him.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a tough one. My instincts tell me to pick Benitez because I tend to think we could get a striking fight where I trust Benitez much more in an extended fight. I think Benitez is just a more skilled striker and if this stays on the feet for 2-3 rounds then I think Benitez will have the edge.
Miller can surely win this fight though. Benitez’s durability is suspect and Miller definitely has a chance to hurt him. Miller may have some grappling equity too but again, I don’t think Miller will easily take Benitez down and hold him down for 15 minutes. It would probably come in spots or in the form of an opportunistic submission.
Miller could also maybe compete on the feet just because Benitez doesn’t always push a pace. I still think if this stays standing though, which it honestly probably will, Benitez is the better round winner. So I will go with Benitez to win.
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On DraftKings, I do think this is a fight with fantasy potential as we get mid-range prices and a likely high-pace.
I also expect Miller to be the more popular fighter of the two. He’s just generally more liked publicly and has now won four of his past five fights. Plus, he has more grappling equity and more early finishing equity of the two.
Despite the pick to win, I do think Miller rates out pretty well. He’s 8.2k and +145 to win ITD. In a win, Miller likely lands takedowns, and I would expect a finish as he very rarely wins decisions these days.
So although there’s risk in terms of win equity, age, style, and cardio, a win for Miller projects well and I do want exposure to it. If he ends up super chalky then I will likely scale back, as I don’t think it’s a super easy matchup for him.
But I do like the upside for Miller this week and I think he’s a pretty strong mid-range target that you should have exposure to.
Benitez is potentially the leverage side of the matchup at 8k, and I don’t mind leaning into him if he projects to be much lower owned than Miller.
He’s actually +140 to win ITD now, so if that holds up then he’ll probably be owned in the same ballpark as Miller and won’t be great leverage.
It’s just that he likely won’t wrestle much, and he doesn’t have much submission equity. A striking based decision won’t cut it either. Knocking out Jim Miller ain’t an easy task, so there are just more questions here in regards to Benitez’ fantasy ceiling.
The real positive is pacing. Benitez’ last four fights have been paced very high, win and lose. I do think he could hurt and finish Miller, or pour on offense late as Miller tends to tire out. It could even result with Miller laying on his back and giving up control late.
I am more nervous about going heavy on Benitez because there’s a less clear path to fantasy domination, but public ownership will factor into the decision. And should the fight play out on the feet, which it’s likely to early, Benitez is arguably the outright favorite.
At worst, Benitez is a decent secondary option and a fighter you could potentially aim to be overweight on depending on how the public choses to attack this matchup.
Fight Prediction: Benitez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista
Fight Odds: Simon -190, Bautista +162
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Simon 8.6k, Bautista 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
A fun matchup in the bantamweight division, we’ll see Ricky Simon look to bounce back from his main event knockout loss to Song Yadong last April, as he takes on Mario Bautista on Saturday.
Simon was flattened in the fifth round of that fight, but he’d been knocked down multiple times before, and had taken significant damage. His wrestling game, which he is primarily known for, had come up short, as he’d landed just two takedowns on nine attempts.
Without a high volume of takedowns landed, I am never going to be fully trusting of Simon, and that is one reason why he likely doesn’t carry a championship-level ceiling in this division.
Simon is short and stocky, and a good athlete capable of bull-rushing his way into takedowns. But unless he’s in top position, his overall game is not very deep.
Simon currently lands 5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is an excellent number and always piques my interest. However, his submission grappling game is not a strong suit, and he actually only attempts 0.4 submissions per five minutes of control.
Essentially, though Simon is capable of taking most opponents down. He doesn’t do a great job at controlling them, nor is he a real threat to win by submission. So mostly, opponents find a way to scramble up, which means Simon will need to continuously take them down in order to win clean rounds.
On the feet, Simon is still a work-in-progress. He carries power in his hand and has a couple of nice knockdowns in recent fights against quality competition, but his striking is not very deep.
He can throw a jab and a hard right hand, but there’s not much else there. He also only lands 3.5 sig. strikes per minute at distance, while absorbing 4.5 per minute, which is not a positive ratio.
That’s where I think Mario Bautista can really test Simon, on the feet at distance.
Bautista is a higher-volume, more aggressive striker who has gone to war against opponents in the past. One of my favorite performances of his was a win over Jin Soo Son, where Bautista landed 129 sig. strikes in 15 minutes.
There are times where Bautista’s volume can wane though, and he hasn’t been as consistent as I would like. However, Bautista lands 6.1 sig. strikes at distance, and he’s clearly the higher volume striker of the two in this matchup.
Should this fight play out on the feet, I think I favor Bautista. I trust his ability to throw and land strikes on a per-minute basis more than Simon, and I think he will hold the edge in round-winning equity.
Simon has also been hurt a few times. He was knocked out by Song Yadong and Urijah Faber. Bautista is aggressive enough to potentially damage and knock Simon out.
The flip side is that Simon still carries power and is capable of hurting Bautista too. Bautista has been dropped twice in his UFC career, and knocked out once. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Simon hurt him at some point, or if he had big moments that helped him keep the momentum in his favor.
Overall though, I trust the volume and consistency of Bautista and I think he’s extremely live to win while this fight stays standing.
Where Simon can really separate is on the ground, as he’s clearly the better wrestler. Bautista only defends takedowns at 56 percent, and he was just taken down four times by Da’Mon Blackshear.
Assuming Simon attempts his usual 10+ takedowns per 15 minutes, he will project to land 3-5 of them, and that could easily be enough to win rounds. Bautista isn’t the most physical presence, and I do think Simon will find his way on top at points.
But again, it’s the lack of control and lack of submission grappling that’s always been a concern for Simon. If he can’t hold Bautista down or threaten him with a sub, I’m not sure the takedowns will be enough, in which case the winner of this fight may still come down to the striking exchanges.
That is what I am leaning toward currently, that Bautista can work his way back up and continue to fight hard on the feet. His win over Blackshear once again proved he can fight hard late into rounds, and I think that will be helpful for him against Simon as well.
Overall, Simon does have more paths to victory, so I can understand him being the favorite. He is the better wrestler and has more takedown upside. He also packs enough power in his strikes to threaten Bautista.
But I don’t fully trust his wrestling control, nor his striking pace or defense. I’ll take a flier on the underdog Bautista to get ahead on the striking exchanges and get his hand raised.
On DraftKings, Simon should be the more popular target at 8.6k, and I think he’s a fine option based on his wrestling equity.
While his control skills aren’t great, it means that he’ll need a generally higher volume of takedowns to get the job done. And volume takedowns are great for scoring on DraftKings.
Simon has scored 121, 89, 101, 107 and 98 in his DECISION wins on DraftKings. It’s tough to ignore that.
So yeah, he’s only +250 to win ITD here which isn’t special and I don’t think his chances of finishing Bautista are spectacular. I’m not sure it matters though because even in a decision win, we could get five takedowns and 90+ points.
I think Bautista is very live to win this fight, but assuming Simon gets his hand raised, as the near -200 favorite, he projects quite well for 8.6k. I probably won’t be as high on him as the field but I can’t blame you for targeting Simon aggressively, and for 8.6k, he’s a pretty strong target in all formats.
Bautista has the tougher path to a big DK score as he likely won’t wrestle, and he’s only +315 to win ITD. Striking volume may not be as high for him in this matchup as past matchups because Simon won’t chase range exchanges.
However, again, I think Bautista can win. I do think he could hurt Simon. For 7.6k, I’m willing to take some chances here, especially if the field is reluctant.
The betting line has been moving toward Simon this week which means he’ll be the value side and should be quite popular. It also may mean Bautista is somewhat low owned.
He won’t rate out spectacularly and there’s some merit to chasing finishing upside elsewhere, but I like Bautista’s win equity personally and especially if he carries leverage against Simon, he’s a decent secondary target and one I may aim to be overweight on.
Fight Prediction: Bautista by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Phil Hawes vs. Bruno Ferreira
Fight Odds: Ferreira -122, Hawes +106
Odds to Finish: -700
DraftKings Salaries: Ferreira 8.3k, Hawes 7.9k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
For however long this fight lasts, this should be a fun one between Phil Hawes and Bruno Ferreira. I also feel like this is a fight where whoever I pick to win is going to lose.
Phil Hawes is a tough cat to break down. He’s 5-4 in the UFC and actually has some great wins against good competition. He is skilled in most areas of the sport too.
I consider Hawes a decent striker. He lands 5.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.70 in return. He is a freak athlete with a lot of speed. He can land consistently and land hard with power. He is a fine striker and is actually pretty technical offensively.
Hawes also comes from a wrestling background and is a good wrestler. He lands 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes and even outwrestled Nassourdine Imavov. He also defends takedowns at 100 percent. Hawes is simply a talented fighter who has the potential to beat a lot of guys.
The issue with Hawes is his chin. He has 4 losses in the UFC and all of his losses have come by knockout pretty quickly. Even in fights that he has won, he has been hurt badly. Imavov wobbled him multiple times. His durability is simply questionable so it makes it difficult to analyze and predict his fights.
Hawes’ opponent Brunno Ferreira is a brute. On the regionals, Ferreira simply overpowered all of his opponents either on the feet or on the mat and finished them quickly. He then knocked out his opponent on the Contender Series and then knocked out Gregory Rodrigues in his UFC debut.
Ferreira is simply a dangerous guy early in fights and is capable of hurting anyone. I also think he has a decent wrestling and BJJ game but it is pretty unproven at this level. I also don’t know what Ferreia’s defensive grappling will look like either. I have seen him taken down but he worked up fine. He hasn’t really fought any good guys who tried to grapple him yet though.
Ferreira also may not be good in extended fights. I haven’t seen him tested late in fights yet.
Furthermore, Ferreira was just knocked dead in his last matchup against Ruziboev which was kind of a bad look. So maybe he has durability issues as well.
There are multiple unknowns with Ferreira so Hawes winning this fight seems totally reasonable. I kept going back and forth here. I could easily see Hawes knocking Ferreira dead. I also could see Hawes exposing a potential hole that Ferreira has that we don’t know about yet. Hawes very well may just school him in an extended fight or outwrestle him. So picking Hawes seems reasonable here. He is probably the more talented fighter.
However, I simply hate Hawes’ chin, and I definitely think Ferreira will be aggressive and test it. So I will pick Ferreira to knock Hawes dead. Again, I am not confident in this fight at all though and I almost feel like whoever I pick to win will lose lol.
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On DraftKings, this is one of my favorite fights to target on the entire slate and it’s possible the field will feel the same, given the heavy -700 ITD line.
And it mostly comes down to durability and finishing power. Hawes is a knockout artist with a HORRIBLE chin. Ferreira has never gone the distance in 11 pro fights. It feels very likely that someone will get KOd here.
The downside and the issue is that there won’t be an insane amount of offense without the finish. So if this fight randomly gets extended, it’s quite likely that both sides bust. Be careful about that if you have a large portfolio to play with, considering both sides will be highly owned.
However, with a smaller portfolio, this is a fight I will likely lean into and hope for a finish. There really isn’t a wrong answer as to a pick, just because there’s so much variance in knockouts and durability.
Picking Ferreira is totally fine. I like him and I was on him for his debut upset against Rodrigues.
I may actually go the other way here. I really like Ferreira’s grappling game, but I don’t think he will make it work against a bigger, and more physical wrestler in Hawes. While he could still knock Hawes out, it’s not a guarantee. Hawes may also be better in extended fights.
I just think it could be a decent bounce back spot for Hawes after three KO losses in his last four. The public may be scared to target him here. Ultimately he’s more well suited for this division and he’s more experienced.
So I think I will lean Hawes with my exposure personally at 7.9k. He is +155 to win ITD and has finishing upside. He might even have some wrestling upside.
Ferreira projects better at 8.3k, with a fantastic -125 ITD line. I mean, he’s one of the best tournament plays on the entire slate based on that metric, and I do think a first-round KO is within his wheelhouse.
So it’s not wrong to prioritize Ferreira or even target him heavily on this slate. He is likely to be the more popular guy though and potentially significantly so. If that’s the case, leaning into Hawes or splitting your action is probably the smart call in larger tournaments.
Ultimately this is a boom or bust fight with a great chance of booming, based on the -700 ITD line.
Fight Prediction: Hawes by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Andrei Arlovski
Fight Odds: Cortes-Acosta -615, Arlovski +440
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Cortes-Acosta 9.5k, Arlovski 6.7k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Waldo Cortes-Acosta is hoping to build upon his first round knockout win against Lukasz Brzeski when he returns to the cage this weekend against Andrei Arlovski.
Waldo is from the Dominican Republic, a powerhouse baseball country, and was kicked out of the Cincinnati Reds’ organization after getting into a fight with a teammate. He then got into boxing training and started MMA shortly thereafter, so he doesn’t have a deep fighting pedigree.
Waldo honestly doesn’t look bad though and has fared well in the UFC thus far against low-level competition. He is clearly best as a boxer. He is a pretty good athlete for HW, and I do consider his hands decent. He has some alright speed. He has power as well, and I do think he is knockout capable in the UFC heavyweight’s division. He has decent timing on his strikes.
He basically just looks to land at distance and mix in dirty boxing in the clinch. His cardio looks to at least be decent, and he seems like a tough dude.
Waldo lands 6.97 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.06 in return. Those are good metrics and I like that he lands consistently without tiring badly. Waldo also has dominated the head strike numbers in his fights thus far and that is why I played him in his last matchup against Brzeski.
Waldo doesn’t look to wrestle all that often and he doesn’t really have a ground game background, so I doubt grappling is a consistent path to victory at this level. I have seen him taken down a bit on the regionals which isn’t a good sign but he at least tried to work to his feet. He got taken down by Chase Sherman which was a VERY bad look to me and Marcos Rogerio De Lima had success on the mat against him as well.
Waldo will be taking on 44-year-old Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski has like 500 UFC fights at this point. He is 44 years old and all of his fights basically look the same. They take place on the feet and generally go the distance. 13 of Arlovski’s last 17 fights in the UFC have gone the distance, which is unheard of at heavyweight.
It makes sense though. Arlovski just isn’t a finisher and has minimal power for a HW. In fact, Arlovski has not won a fight by knockout or landed a knockdown in his last 22 fights, which has been the equivalent of 54 rounds. That is honestly mind-boggling at HW.
Arlovski is a decent round winner on the feet though. He lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.20 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. Arlovski has shown solid boxing throughout his career, along with a decent leg-kicking game. He can mix it up on the feet, won’t gas, and stays composed for 15 minutes.
Arlovski does not grapple much offensively. He lands 0.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and has not landed a takedown in his last 12 UFC fights. I can’t really predict him to go to a wrestling game plan. If he does, it would be more of just a random outcome rather than a predictable event. Defensively, Arlovski is fine as a grappler and defends takedowns at 76 percent.
I hate Arlovski’s age though. I thought he looked bad in his most recent matchup against Mayes where he lost by knockout. He just looks a bit older and declined now.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to pick Waldo because of his youth advantage. He is 12 years younger than Arlovski and is probably the faster guy, with the better hands at this point. I also just think Waldo’s durability is more trustworthy at this point in his career. Waldo is just good at landing consistently and that will probably lead to hurting Arlovski at some point or just landing the more impactful strikes throughout the fight.
Perhaps Arlovski can land a takedown or something? But I doubt it. He just doesn’t have a track record of consistently going for takedowns. I do think it is at least possible Arlovski can strike competitively and make rounds close. Overall though, I just don’t trust Arlovski’s age or form anymore, and Waldo is the rightful favorite given his youth and athletic advantages.
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On DraftKings, Cortes-Acosta is priced up to 9.5k which makes him the second most expensive fighter on the board.
I do believe he has knockout potential, but he’ll need a quick KO to contend for the optimal at this price, which is always a tricky dilemma to navigate.
Silva, Ankalaev and Nolan all have legitimate fantasy potential as well in this range, so Cortes-Acosta is simply not a priority. At the same time, I think it’s likely that the public leans on Ankalaev, and potentially those other finishers as well, putting WCA into a semi-contrarian category.
Cortes-Acosta is -265 to win ITD which is a fantastic number and honestly it’s a ton of respect to give him against a veteran opponent like Arlovski. With a metric like that, you can target WCA as heavily as you’d like, and if he does project to be lower owned, then coming in overweight to the field could make sense in large fields.
Still, he has a limited path to victory, which is boxing, and a limited path to a ceiling. I’m fine mixing in WCA but I find myself more intrigued with the grappling or early finishing upside of those other fighters surrounding him.
Arlovski is super cheap at 6.7k and I think will be overlooked by the public completely. Nobody is interested in playing Arlovski at this stage of his career, and likely rightfully so.
He’s a huge dog with minimal grappling upside and a +800 ITD line. At best, Arlovski is a dart throw, punt option that you could sprinkle into large fields to save salary. He’ll project as one of the worst options on the entire slate though, and I’ll have no real exposure with a limited number of lineups personally.
Fight Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Preston Parsons
Fight Odds: Semelsberger -128, Parsons +111
Odds to Finish: -175
DraftKings Salaries: Semelsberger 8.4k, Parsons 7.8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a Welterweight middle-class fight here between Matthew Semelsberger and Preston Parsons.
Semelsberger is mostly a striker. He is tough and scrappy and will put up some volume. He also has some power and is capable of knocking guys out at this level. He isn’t super technical on the feet though. He lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.36 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent.
Slick strikers will definitely outskill him, but he can hold his own in this division on the feet and always presents reasonable danger towards his opponents.
Semelsberger has landed a few takedowns in the UFC. However, I don’t consider him a very good offensive grappler and he will struggle to outgrapple anyone decent.
I really worry about Semelsberger’s defensive grappling though. He defends takedowns at 50 percent and was taken down 6 times against Jeremiah Wills. Semelsberger’s TDD isn’t the worst thing I have ever seen. He is physical and will try to shrug off takedowns. However, he can be exposed if you chain together takedown attempts. I also don’t love his get-ups and he can be held on the mat as well.
Semelsberger will be taking on Preston Parsons. I actually kind of like Parsons. He isn’t great, but he has a pretty tenacious grappling game and will attempt a lot of takedowns. He attempts 9 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 3.11. He landed 4 takedowns against Evan Elder and 3 against Trevin Giles. He also has a decent gas tank and can wrestle hard for 15 minutes.
Parsons is a bit raw though and he can sometimes get a little too excited and lose position on the mat. He does have decent get-ups though and will work to his feet if he ends up on bottom.
Parsons is okay as a striker. He is not good or technical. However, he is tough and will come forward, and look to land in combination which sometimes leads to success for him.
As far as this matchup goes, this seems pretty binary. I favor Semelsberger on the feet just based on power and experience. He is a bit more dangerous and battle tested standing. I do think Parsons can remain competitive on the feet and have moments himself though, but if this fight is on the feet I think Semelsberger will be at a mild advantage with a decent chance to hurt Parsons.
I do think Parsons can land takedowns here though and I am ultimately going to pick him for that reason. He just shoots so many takedowns and if this fight gets extended, I have to assume he will land at least a couple of takedowns with decent stretches of top position.
Parsons does get sloppy though and Semelsberger is tough, and could maybe stop some takedowns or reverse position and put Parsons in danger. Still though, I lean toward grapplers in these fights that I think are close so I will go with Parsons to get it done because he has some grappling upside in this matchup.
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On DraftKings, this fight has potential but there’s less of a clear line to fantasy gold as some other fights on the slate.
Parsons is probably the better option at 7.8k, based on his grappling equity. If he wins, it’s very likely to come from multiple takedowns, and control, and potentially a submission. He is +250 to win ITD which is not spectacular, but shows some finishing threat.
Also, the price is nice. You get to save salary on a grappler with near 50 percent win equity. I am far from confident that Parsons wins, but if he does win, he could be competitive with the optimal lineup. He makes sense to use as a secondary target and he’d be fine to prioritize in this range as well, depending on your confidence level.
Semelsberger is a bit more challenging from a fantasy ceiling standpoint at 8.4k, as he likely needs a knockout. Semelsberger occasionally grapples but I don’t expect that to be a primary game plan for him against Parsons.
Parsons has been knocked out in the UFC already though, so a KO is possible. Semelsberger is actually +140 to win ITD which is decent. I suspect the public won’t be too excited to roster him though, coming off an ugly loss to Uros Medic and losing to Jeremiah Wells prior to that.
So it’s possible that Semelsberger would be a good option to be overweight on given his public ownership versus the ITD equity. I am just not that confident in him in this matchup, and he’s a basic secondary target that I’m not likely to take a major stand against the field on.
Fight Prediction: Semelsberger by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Marcus McGhee vs. Gaston Bolanos
Fight Odds: McGhee -234, Bolanos +196
Odds to Finish: -215
DraftKings Salaries: McGhee 9.1k, Bolanos 7.1k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a bantamweight clash between the Peruvian Gaston Bolanos and the surging Marcus McGhee. Let’s dive in.
Marcus McGhee made his debut on short notice against Journey Newson last year where he won over the hearts of many in what was an impressive submission victory. The 33-year-old Michigan prospect followed that up with a first round KO of JP Buys a few months after, and is currently riding a 4-fight win streak into this clash.
The 8-1 bantamweight is a primary striker with power and great finishing ability. He has a 100% finish rate and has never seen the judges scorecards in 9 professional fights. With 7 of his 8 wins coming by KO, his power and finishing instincts are his best ability as he carries dangerous strength at 135. He also showed flashes of submission upside in his debut, although grappling is not his first instinct.
He’s failed to register a takedown attempt in the UFC and his sole loss comes by submission a couple years back in LFA. Defensively, he is sound on the feet and has shown the ability to take a punch. I do question his takedown defense and ability to work off his back, although he has not been tested in that department and shouldn’t have to worry about it in this matchup.
He has yet to face the best competition but has been able to dispose of who’s in front of him accordingly. He has shown to be aggressive enough to win minutes and although he has never seen the judges scorecards, looks to have apt cardio to thrive shall it go the distance. Overall, McGhee is a powerful striker with good finishing instincts, although there are questions to be answered about his level of competition and defensive grappling.
Gaston Bolanos makes his second trip to the Octagon after defeating Aaron Phillips back in April of last year. The Peruvian prospect showed some solid striking in that matchup where he was able to land 63 strikes while staying safe and only absorbing 17 coming back his way.
Striking is in fact the talking point for “The Dreamkiller” as he has been competing in kickboxing competitions globally for over 10 years. He is a powerful individual with all but one of his wins coming via KO. He was sprung into Bellator for his first 9 bouts before joining the UFC, as Bellator provided him with some lower level competition to crush as a 0-0 fighter. This unfortunately wasn’t all perfect for Gaston, who quickly realized this wasn’t kickboxing and was submitted in his second pro bout.
In fact, his 3 pro losses have all come by way of grappling. Two via submission and the other a decision loss on the mat. He is extremely dangerous on the feet but such as other pure strikers, has struggled with takedown defense and overall ground game.
That continues to be his weakness as Aaron Phillips was able to take him down three times in his UFC debut, although he was able to survive and land the better shots on the feet.
The recipe seems simple: take Bolanos down and beat him there. He is definitely not someone you want to strike with as his power, technicality and volume are excellent and has the pro experience to pick apart many strikers in this division. Overall, although he must shore up his grappling in order to have extended success in the UFC, he is a terrific striker that has the skillset to gather some solid highlight reel KOs if given the opportunity.
At the end of the day this fight sounds a lot simpler on paper than it actually is. We saw McGhee submit Newson in his UFC debut and that success on the mat is the reason why he is favored here.
The hype behind him and the fact that he has had any ounce of grappling success gives a path for him and makes him the public side against someone in Bolanos who is truly not UFC level on the mat. If it were that simple, and McGhee does decide to wrestle, the line is justified and I completely understand. The problem is that we don’t know McGhee will shoot early, if at all! He is a primary striker who, yes, was able to submit Newson opportunistically, but aside from that has not shot or landed a TD in the UFC and barely has regionally. If this is a pure kickboxing bout, I favor the experience, technicality and power that Bolanos brings and it leads me to think the line is wide.
Bolanos is the best striker McGhee has fought and it is a big step up from JP Buys on the feet. So although the path is there on the mat, without evidence he is going to take it there early, I am going to have to side with the underdog to make his reads on the feet and be the superior striker.
Yes, I like the aggressiveness and power of McGhee in his own right, but that was against lower level of competition and this should be a good indication of where he compares to other high level strikers. Give me the underdog in what I expect to be a kickboxing affair.
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On DraftKings, this is a weird matchup that frankly makes me uncomfortable.
McGhee is flying high from two quick finishes, and is now priced up to 9.1k. And he’s now facing an opponent in Bolanos who is pretty terrible on the ground.
McGhee doesn’t wrestle urgently much though, and his only career submission win came in his UFC debut. A fight in which he did not attempt a takedown. There is still grappling and finishing upside here with McGhee at -125 ITD, but it doesn’t feel very safe.
I strongly prefer a few of the names priced above McGhee this week, which will keep me off of him for a large part. However, if he comes in low owned, there’s still merit to attacking this play based on the grappling hole in Bolanos’ game.
There just also feels like a lot more risk, even with gameplanning here for McGhee, and without that grappling based finish it feels likely he’ll contend for the optimal.
Bolanos at 7.1k isn’t super exciting based on the above analysis, but also, if he keeps the fight standing, it’s arguable he would be the outright favorite. That could also lead to a KO, though McGhee has never been knocked out.
My real worry is that Bolanos might win a slow paced, kickboxing decision in which lands 60 strikes. I’m not even convinced he gets to 60 DK points without a knockout.
At 7.1k, it’s possible that’s enough, and it could help you spend up elsewhere. I don’t think I’m willing to jam him in though.
You’re really hoping for a KO here from Bolanos for him to reach a ceiling and contend with the optimal. There is some narrative to suggest that’s possible and perhaps he’s being underrated by the betting market, but I still don’t think it’s a clean line to a big fantasy score.
Ultimately Bolanos is a fine GPP punt, who I’d like a bit of exposure to. My gut feeling is that he won’t win by KO though in which case I’m just not convinced he’ll produce enough points.
Fight Prediction: McGhee by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Farid Basharat vs. Taylor Lapilus
Fight Odds: Basharat -253, Lapilus +210
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Basharat 8.9k, Lapilus 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Farid Basharat is one of the more burgeoning prospects at 135 lbs. and has performed well to date – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 11-0 as a pro. Taylor Lapilus had a 4-fight stint in the UFC back in 2015/2016 but got let go despite going 3-1. He then went back to the regionals where he picked up a few titles and was recently brought back in September where he made good on his re-debut – he’s 19-3 as a pro.
The striking component:
Basharat comes from a taekwondo background and fights in a cerebral way.
He’ll use a healthy amount of footwork, while bouncing in and out of the pocket well, and he’s the one who is generally dictating the exchanges in his fights.
He’s got some sharp boxing with a solid jab, but a diverse kicking game as well where he doesn’t discriminate. I’ve seen him hurt multiple opponents with head kicks specifically too, but he’s not a conventionally large puncher and more of a tactician.
His general pacing has largely been consistent as well.
Defensively, he’s shown to be generally sound with his footwork with the ability to keep guys on the end of punches, while avoiding eating extended combinations.
On DWCS, he held his opponent to 12 distance strikes and defended at 75% — additionally held Blackshear to 39% on significant strikes and less than 40% at distance.
I have seen him hurt once briefly with a straight, but he recovered immediately – by and large he’s been a durable fighter.
Overall, I like Basharat’s striking as he’s shown a well-rounded skillet and general process to his game.
Lapilus has an interesting frame as he isn’t the tallest 135er in the world, but has a big reach at the weight class at 73”. He fights southpaw and works a primary boxing-oriented styl,e but will supplement front kicks and leg kicks here and there as well.
His main core competencies are that he’s got some fast hands and is a pretty technical guy as well. He’ll fight in a composed way in the lip of the pocket where he’s been able to best all of his recent opponents in that range.
He’s also shown some good pull counters in there to boot.
Lapilus only has 4 wins via KO/TKO, so I don’t think he’s the biggest hitter out there but more of a tactician – however, his shots do have sting.
Defensively, he has decent understanding of distance, even in playing that lip of the pocket game as he can slip shots well and return fire of his own.
But he can be susceptible to entry single straights when opponents come in and he’s more susceptible when he’s put on the back foot. He’s still not an easy guy to get off extended combinations on though.
Lapilus has also never been KO’d, spanning 22 fights as a pro, so he’s also shown a good chin throughout his career.
However, I do see him struggling with more effective pressure at the UFC level as a guy who really likes a solid rhythm to do his best work.
Overall though, I like Lapilus as a striker as he’s measured, disciplined and pretty technical.
How it plays out: The striking should be fun here as I rate both guys technically on the feet. I do think the length and southpaw look of Lapilus may pose some issues to Basharat, but I ultimately favor Basharat on the feet because he’s also a guy to not just stand in front of people, which is where I feel Lapilus has realized success with past opponents. I don’t think there is a wide gap defensively, but Basharat appears to be a bit better. Nonetheless, exchanges being competitive between the two is on the table, but I just feel Basharat is also better.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Basharat’s floor credentials but he’s additionally found a healthy amount of floor success so far in his pro career.
His entries to TDs are quick, he wrestles to the legs well but can chain to other TDs as well – he excels specifically with his single leg TD.
When on top, his control has been stronger to date as he operates well in the half guard where he’ll use supplementary GNP to open up his passing.
Jiu-jitsu wise, 6 of his 11 pro wins have come via submission and all by RNC, as he’s got a sound back take after his mount transitions.
I also like his general patience as he’s not a guy who really “forces” positions and takes what his opponents give to him – if he feels he can’t solidify, he’ll hop off the pass.
We also saw him out grapple Blackshear in his debut who’s a big guy and with good jiu-jitsu.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much but in the brief times he’s been on bottom, he’s been able to work up to the feet very quickly.
Blackshear did get in on some deep stuff and take Basharat down, but only went 1 for 6 and Basharat additionally proved difficult to hold down in that spot.
Overall, Basharat’s ground game is a solid complement to his taekwondo striking base and something he’s consistently mixed into his fights.
Lapilus is a BJJ Brown Belt as of 2019 with 6 of his 19 pro wins coming via submission.
However, I’ve rarely seen him wrestle offensively in the last 5 years as a guy who prefers to stand and strike, and he hasn’t submitted anyone since 2014.
His opponents are the ones that are traditionally trying to take him down due to the fact that he’s getting the better of the striking against guys.
His last loss came back in 2018 where he was pegged against a judo Black Belt in Lavrentyev – he got taken down roughly 5 times and lost a decision. He was able to work up under many of the earlier TDs, but it was later in the fight that he really struggled working back to the feet.
We saw more recently Loughran go only 2 for 11 on TDs against Lapilus but he was still able to take a round via control in the second, and racked up more than 6 minutes of total control in the fight despite Lapilus largely being able to stay upright.
I’ve seen him get stuck in a couple viable submission attempts, but he’s also done the right things and has been able to work his way out of those positions – he’s never been submitted as a pro.
Overall, his TDD does appear to be respectable and he isn’t a guy that’s going to just tip over from TDAs necessarily, but the floor is most likely where his bigger struggles are going to come at the UFC level, despite being competent.
How it plays out: Given the fact that Lapilus has shown minimal offensive upside and has lost fights on the floor in the past, I’d give the bulk of the ground equity to Basharat here. I don’t think TDs will come easy per say and I expect resistance from Lapilus, but I do project multiple TDs for Basharat to be able to win minutes on the floor in this spot.
I’m happy they resigned Lapilus because I do feel he has a skillset that makes him deserved of being in the UFC. However, Basharat’s one of my more highly touted prospects right now as he is for many others, as he’s just so well-rounded and so cerebral. I ultimately see Lapilus struggling with the meshing of the striking and the wrestling of Basharat to drop a decision.
—
On DraftKings, this should be a fun, entertaining fight with decent prospects but I’m not convinced there’s a ton of fantasy upside.
Basharat is priced up to 8.9k, and I think he’ll need to replicate his last win and submit Lapilus to really contend for the optimal at this price. At distance, I see it being somewhat slow paced, with little knockout equity on either side.
Basharat can throw volume but 100 sig. strikes does us little good at this price with so many studs surrounding him. Really, we need multiple takedowns, control domination and likely a finish for Basharat to reach a ceiling. He’s only +225 to win ITD which is a fine metric, but not great for this price.
It’s one of the reasons why I will be mostly avoiding Basharat on DK this week. He rates out OK from a floor standpoint and I think he is likely to win. Some wrestling equity helps. I strongly prefer the finishing ceiling of most of the guys priced above him, and ultimately I’m just not convinced Basharat has a ceiling worth paying the price for.
Lapilus at 7.3k interests me mildly, because I think he’s a talented fighter. He could keep the stand-up competitive, and maybe win.
But I’m really not in the business of investing money against the Bash brothers right now. Nor do I think Laplius has much wrestling or finishing equity in this matchup. He’s +650 to win ITD.
The real benefit is if he can win and also be the cheapest fighter to win. Then, even a 70 point score may be worth considering for 7.3k.
I just think a win for Lapilus likely comes by Decision and it likely scores 60-70 points. He’s in consideration as a secondary option for win equity but it’s hard to get excited by the ceiling in this matchup and I guess I’ll be light on exposure to him because of that.
Fight Prediction: Basharat by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Jean Silva vs. Westin Wilson
Fight Odds: Silva -1029, Wilson +650
Odds to Finish: -1600
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9.6k, Wilson 6.6k
Weight Class: 145
Fresh off a brutal knockout loss to Joanderson Brito, the UFC has decided to match up Westin Wilson with another Brazilian powerhouse in newcomer Jean Silva.
Wilson was largely expected to faceplant in his UFC debut, both because Brito is highly thought of as a talent, and because Wilson is not.
Wilson is now 16-8 professionally, at age 34, and he’s lost six times inside the distance. Surprisingly, only two of those losses have come by knockout, with the other four coming by submission.
Wilson also has 11 submission wins on his record and five knockouts, meaning 22 of his 24 fights have ended inside the distance.
Wilson is a BJJ brown belt, and that’s the area where he’s most likely to succeed. He is tall and long for this division, standing 6’1”, which can be a tricky frame to compete with on the mat.
But as we saw in his debut, length alone doesn’t mean much. Wilson dove on a leg lock and was met with big hands from Brito that put him unconscious.
I do consider Wilson a competent grappler in the sense that he’s aggressive and will at least attempt to submit you if you give him a limb or a neck. He has a bunch of wins by guillotine and I think that’s one option for him. He’s also been training with John Danaher recently who’s among the best No Gi BJJ coaches in the world, so perhaps he’s leveled up a bit.
Still, Wilson doesn’t possess much of a wrestling game to back up his BJJ. He’ll get taken down mostly at will, and he’ll fail to get on top of any good opponent. At best, he’s just an opportunist on the mat and I don’t think that will carry him far.
On the feet, Wilson is aggressive, but a defensive liability. He uses a karate stance, and is aided by his length. He’s not really a capable distance fighter though, and he’s never won by decision.
At best, he can maybe pressure and hurt a lower-level opponent. More realistically, he’ll be on the wrong end of the big shots and will find himself hurt again.
His next opponent will be newcomer Jean Silva, who is 11-2 professionally at age 27, with eight wins by knockout and two by submission. Both of his losses are by decision, but they came a long time ago in 2017-18.
Silva recently earned his contract with a decision win on DWCS, which was his first of the kind. I’m grateful that we saw it because otherwise, I probably would have lumped into the early-finish-or-bust category, as the vast majority of his other wins are quick KOs.
On DWCS, Silva landed 87 significant strikes in 15 minutes with one takedown, in a reasonably competitive bout.
I consider him a pretty aggressive muay-thai guy, and he’s hands down the more technical fighter of the two in this matchup. He’ll bounce around on his feet, throw hard kicks at times, and rush in with power hands.
From a macro standpoint, Silva is relatively dangerous and offensively potent enough to damage opponents at the UFC level. He also showed us on DWCS that he can fight for 15 minutes, giving him an additional path to victory.
I am still not convinced he’s an elite talent though. I wouldn’t expect Silva to get far ahead on the numbers against any decent range striker. Without damage, I’m not sure he pulls away from opponents at all.
I haven’t seen a ton of his ground game either, and it’s definitely not a priority for Silva. I’d like to see him mix it up on the mat with UFC competition before I make any firm statements on the quality of his skill there.
Against Wilson, it’s likely Silva isn’t tested too much though. If he is tested, it will likely come immediately. The longer the fight goes, the more I would favor Silva and it feels inevitable that he will land something damaging that puts Wilson away.
With that said, Wilson is way bigger than him. Wilson will be five inches taller with a four-inch reach advantage.
It’s quite possible that Wilson can connect at distance because of this. Maybe he can hurt Silva early. I just don’t see him being capable of keeping range, and the more exchanges that play out on the feet, the more Wilson will put himself in danger.
Also, Silva seems generally tough and durable so it’s not as if one random shot from Wilson is likely to fold him.
I don’t really expect Silva to wrestle here, but he probably could land takedowns if he wanted. And he probably could land ground-and-pound from there if he wanted while Wilson desperately latches onto a limb.
Wilson is the more likely of the two to shoot takedowns, out of desperation. Perhaps Silva’s takedown defense won’t hold up but I have no reason to believe it’s a major liability. Unless Wilson can jump on a guillotine or something immediately, I don’t see him having much ground success.
I’ve spent way to much time talking about this fight but the bottom line is that Wilson isn’t a UFC level talent, so his margins are thin. I think Silva likely knocks him out in round one or round two.
I am still not sold on Silva as a long-term prospect though, and we’ve seen crazy things happen in debuts before. He is still the more polished guy here.
On DraftKings, I’ll be interested to see what the public does with Silva because he’s now north of -1000 to win, and -800 to win ITD.
Those are insanely good metrics, but he’s expensive at 9.6k. Realistically, Silva needs a first-round KO to have any shot at the optimal. Even if he gets it, he’ll need to outscore the others in this range and then hope there’s enough dogs that win which allow the optimal lineup to pay up for him.
It’s hard to ignore though. Having exposure to a, let me say this again, -800 ITD fighter feels like a smart decision.
Essentially, if you have the salary to pay up this high, feel free to jam Silva in as much as you want. He likely wins, and wins ITD, and scores 100+ points.
I just want to reiterate that even if that happens, he is not a lock to be optimal at 8.6k. And for that reason, it’s not wrong to roster WCA, or Ankalaev or Wilson instead of him, as those fighters could end up with the same result for a cheaper price.
I will be spreading out my exposure in this range but I sorta like paying down a little bit for more unique constructions, which would also give me salary to get off the dumpster dogs.
Wilson at 6.6k is a huge underdog with a +700 ITD line, and he’s not particularly talented. The only real reason to consider him is because he’s the cheapest fighter on the slate and could present massive leverage against Silva.
Also, a win for Wilson likely comes ITD so if he does find the upset, he’ll likely be optimal. With a very large portfolio, I don’t hate a very small dose of Wilson but of course he’s not going to be a priority, and it would be fine to X him out of your player pool entirely.
I’m just a little bit skeptical that the public is overrating Silva at this point, who is still making his UFC debut. Anything can happen in MMA.
I probably won’t roster Wilson myself but if you’re max entering large-field GPPs, he’s probably worth a share or two.
Fight Prediction: Silva by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Tom Nolan vs. Nikolas Motta
Fight Odds: Nolan -324, Motta +260
Odds to Finish: -1400
DraftKings Salaries: Nolan 9.2k, Motta 7k
Weight Class: 155
Another newcomer to the UFC, I am actually looking forward to the debut of Tom Nolan, who will take on Nikolas Motta this weekend.
Nolan is only 6-0 professionally at age 23, so we don’t have a polished prospect here, but I think Nolan has potential or at least can provide some fun moments.
He comes from the Australian regional promotion Eternal MMA, which I generally don’t think highly of but has produced a bunch of fine fighters, including Steven Erceg as a recent example.
Nolan has four wins by knockout and two by decision, but he has grappled aggressively in multiple fights, and I don’t think his game is as straightforward as him being a knockout artist. Mostly, he’s just an aggressive guy.
He’s sorta lanky and likes to push a pace wherever the fight takes place. As is the case with everyone out of this promotion, I just don’t love the level of competition and sorta take his wins with a grain of salt.
But generally speaking, Nolan can wrestle aggressively and he’ll press forward on the feet. He’s a brown belt in BJJ and he always looks for head and arm chokes, though he’s never locked one up.
I don’t think he’s a good enough athlete to consistently take down opponents though, and he might have weak takedown defense himself. But he can scramble fine, and against a poor grappler, he can absolutely get on top or threaten with a sub in transition.
He knocked out his opponent brutally on DWCS in just a couple minutes, and I think it speaks to his firepower. He’s just the type of fighter who seems likely to hurt his opponent if he’s having success at all.
Nolan lost once in amateurs by knockout, and I think he’ll probably get hurt in losses again just because of his fighting style. I’ve seen him taken down and put in bad spots on the mat, though he scrambles free. And his offensive aggression means that when he loses, his opponents are likely going to have to put him out.
I respect his pace though generally and he seems like a tough out and an interesting prospect for now.
He’ll be taking on Nikolas Motta who is coming off an awful loss to Trey Ogden, Technically it was a NC because the ref absolutely blew it late, jumping in to stop the fight while Motta was defending a sub in round three.
Motta had clearly lost every round up until that point and was probably seconds away from getting subbed anyway, but rules are rules.
I was not high on Motta prior to that fight, but now the public has completely written him off.
Motta was once highly thought of (not by me) because he has knockout power, but that’s about the only positive attribute in his game. Motta throws volume at a super low rate, and only lands 2.65 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.61 per minute.
I just hate when fighters don’t produce much offense, which Motta does not. He has not landed a takedown in five tracked fights either. He’s going to wing a couple of power shots at his opponent, and otherwise his game offers nothing.
With that said, he is dangerous in that specific offering. I was even nervous he was going to knock Ogden out while being down two rounds to zero. Ogden played a smart game plan and picked Motta apart at distance with jabs and such, and then took him to the ground.
Nolan is not going to do that. If anything, Nolan might just chase after Motta early and try to knock him out. Motta has been knocked out multiple times in the UFC and he’s not super durable, so that outcome is pretty possible.
If not, maybe Nolan can get Motta on the ground. I think Nolan is the more likely party to wrestle and Motta’s TDD did not look good against Ogden. He defends at 82 percent overall but I would project Nolan to land a couple takedowns over 15 minutes should he try.
If he can get Motta on the mat, Nolan probably lands ground and pound and/or threatens with a sub. Motta just doesn’t offer much and a finish there wouldn’t surprise me.
What really gives Motta a shot is that again, unlike Ogden, I don’t think Nolan will fight particularly “smart”. I think he’s going to hunt for a finish because he’s an aggressive fighter, and that could leave an opening for Motta to capitalize on.
Nolan isn’t an elite athlete or anything and him getting clipped isn’t out of the question. But if that doesn’t happen, Nolan just has a deeper game and more paths to win.
Odds indicate this fight ends early and that’s my thought as well. But it will be up to Nolan to get it done.
Motta doesn’t throw many strikes so if Nolan plays cautiously, this fight could be slower than expected. If Nolan forces exchanges, I think he probably knocks Motta out and/or finds a finish on the mat in the first couple of rounds. Motta is always live for a KO though and he’ll at least throw hard punches, so don’t completely count him out.
On DraftKings, I am really interested in this fight, and I am hoping the public won’t get to it much with the other studs priced in the top tier.
Nolan rates out extremely well at 9.2k, with a -300 ITD line. Yes, in theory, he’ll be ultra popular. But then will the public not play Ankalaev at 9.5k, or Silva at 9.6k, who have similar or better metrics? You be the judge.
I think Ankalaev has a pretty high ownership floor given the main event, and I think Silva does as well. Perhaps the high price of Silva will keep people off of him to a degree, but he’s freaking -800 to win ITD.
Of the group, Nolan arguably interests me the most, though he also may carry the most risk.
He’s just shown to be wildly aggressive at times, and he can grapple at a high rate. He may not choose to grapple, but there is multi-takedown upside in his game. Motta is also potentially a risky matchup given that Motta will throw hard for the KO, and it’s possible Nolan gets caught.
Essentially, my thought is this: If Silva, Ankalaev and Nolan all win in round 1, I think Nolan could score the most points (or the least what the hell do I know).
And if Nolan is going to be less owned than those other two, I’d probably want more exposure to him personally.
As I’ve stated throughout, I will be spreading out my exposure in the top end. It just makes sense given how great each of these options are.
But I do like the pace of this matchup quite a bit, and I like Nolan’s ability to mix it up on the mat. I am willing to chase his DK ceiling because of it, and I will probably end up overweight myself.
Motta is a fine tournament option at 7k, and probably someone I will mix in, especially if I am heavy on Nolan. It will just mean I’m heavily exposed to this fight as a whole, which is -1400 to end ITD by the way.
While Motta’s game sucks, and he’s low volume in general, if he wins, I think it’s likely to be an early KO. And he’ll be low owned, and potentially carry leverage against Nolan.
He’s still just a dart throw with a +300 ITD line but Motta has finishing ability and decent DK upside. I don’t think he wins but there’s a lot of variance in high-paced fights and I think you should have a bit of Motta with any decent sized portfolio.
Fight Prediction: Nolan by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Joshua Van vs. Felipe Bunes
Fight Odds: Van -253, Bunes +210
Odds to Finish: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Van 8.8k, Bunes 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Felipe Bunes finally makes his UFC debut Saturday against an up-and-coming prospect in Joshua Van.
I was actually impressed with Joshua Van’s last performance against Kevin Borjas. Van won by decision and put on a high striking pace, landing 156 significant strikes. Van’s UFC debut came one fight before that one against Zhalgas Zhumagulov where Van won a close decision and landed 120 significant strikes.
I liked that dosage of strikes by Van in those fights and that is what Van does best. He is a volume striker and will strike with a very high pace for 15 straight minutes. He lands 9.20 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.63 in return and actually defends strikes at a solid 63 percent rate.
Van is overall just a pretty skilled striker. He mixes up kicks with his boxing and he works the body well with his hands. He can have success at range in this division. I also consider Van durable as well, and I haven’t really seen him hurt before and he has never been knocked out.
I have also seen Van mix in takedowns here and there. He isn’t a good wrestler, but he honestly isn’t bad, and he can get good positions on the mat after tiring his opponents.
Van’s defensive grappling looks to be his biggest issue. His one loss came a little over 2 years ago. He was generally outwrestled and then submitted by a RNC in the third round. He is only 22 years old now though, and was only 20 years old in that fight, so he has clearly improved.
I have actually liked what I have seen in his defensive grappling in his last three fights and he has defended takedowns at 87 percent in his two UFC fights. The opponent he lost to was also a very accomplished wrestler.
I still do think Van will probably get exposed on the mat soon, but I do tend to think he has improved his defensive grappling to a degree. Time will tell though.
Van’s opponent is UFC debutant Felipe Bunes. Bunes is a Brazilian and is 34 years old. He is 13-6 professionally where he has fought in mostly decent regional promotions.
Overall, I think this guy looks like a typical high level regional fighter / low tier UFC guy. He is pretty well-rounded and can fight in all areas, but he isn’t particularly impressive anywhere.
On the feet, Bunes looks okay but not great. He can hurt opponents occasionally and can put together some decent combinations here and there. I do think he gets bothered with pressure though, and his striking defense looks suspect as fights go.
Bunes comes from a BJJ background and 8 of his wins have come by submission. His submission wins have mostly come against guys with like less than 3 fights though. He looks like a moderately skilled submission grappler, but I wasn’t all that impressed.
He can also string together a decent takedown here and there, but again his wrestling isn’t great either. I have also seen him taken down where he just plays guard which is a bad sign.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Van has an edge on the feet, especially as the fight goes on, so I have to pick him to win for that reason alone. I could see Bunes landing something big or striking competitively in pockets, but overall Van is just so much more proven as a striker and fights at such a high pace. He may just break Bunes and dominate him to be honest.
I think Van’s defensive grappling has improved and I am leaning towards him stopping the grappling of Bunes. However, it was only two years ago where Van looked pretty bad on the mat and gassed.
If Bunes just lands some takedowns early, I could see Van falling apart. I still don’t think Bunes is a great wrestler though and he may not even try to tenaciously wrestle, so I have to go with Van here. Van can probably minimize the grappling enough and get a striking fight where he is the rightful favorite.
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On DraftKings, I’m mildly interested in this matchup as it could have a binary outcome, and the pace could be decent.
Van is priced up to 8.8k which is the challenge. We’ve talked about several very strong targets on this slate with finishing upside, so it makes sense to prioritize most of them outright.
The real upside to Van is in his striking pace, which could potentially lead him to a knockout against a more grappling based opponent in Bunes. If that doesn’t happen though, 120 strikes in a decision won’t do us much good.
Van is coming off a 156-strike decision that scored him 106 DK points though, so he can really rack them up. He’s +125 to win ITD which is a pretty good metric.
There’s not much more to say here. I can’t fault you for not wanting to play Van as he doesn’t have a clear path to a ceiling, and is expensive. At the same time, it’s possible he can beat Bunes up on the feet and knock him out, which would lead to an optimal result.
I like mixing Van in when possible but it’s dependent on the size of your portfolio, and it wouldn’t be wrong to prioritize other finishers priced both above and below him.
Bunes is priced at 7.4k and I do think he’s worth targeting on this particular slate.
I’m not a huge fan of the guy but there aren’t a lot of obvious underdog options. At the very least, there’s some unknowns with Bunes given his UFC debut, and I like that he’s grappling oriented in a projected high paced matchup.
I will pick Bunes to lose, but it’s not impossible for to him land 1-2 takedowns, or threaten with a submission. His straight punching is OK at times too.
At 7.4k, I think Bunes has plenty of upside in a win, and he saves salary. He’s only a secondary option but a fine mix-in, and one I’ll have some exposure to start out the night with.
Fight Prediction: Van by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)