UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho (8/24/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho
Fight Odds: Borralho -253, Cannonier +210
Odds to Finish: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Borralho 8.6k, Cannonier 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
The middleweights will once again take center stage as bright prospect Caio Borralho will get his first main event opportunity against a divisional veteran in Jared Cannonier.
For what it’s worth, Cannonier actually debuted at HW in 2015, and eventually got himself in enough shape to drop to LHW. After taking a beating there as well, he fully committed to the sport, and dropped once again to MW where he has since gone 7-3, only losing to Adesanya, Whittaker and most recently, Nassourdine Imavov.
Cannonier is in freak physical shape now, and he likes to use that to his advantage. He can march you down and throw power strikes, and he’s earned six of his 10 UFC victories by TKO.
In that span, he’s also developed significantly as a defensive grappler, where was quite weak in his early days. He still only defends takedowns at 61 percent, but he’s very difficult to keep down, and most of his worst performances came at HW and LHW.
He even turned into a wrestler himself against Marvin Vettori, who was projected to have the wrestling advantage when the two fought recently. Cannonier landed four of six takedowns against Vettori, and topped that off with a massive 241 significant strikes landed over 25 minutes.
The volume had always been one of my concerns, as Cannonier was usually slower paced and couldn’t separate himself in rounds with ease. He still lands 4.62 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.19 per minute with a 58 percent striking defense, but we’ve clearly seen his volume upside grow in recent five-round performances against Vettori and Strickland.
As it stands currently, Cannonier is a tough out. We now know he can fight for a hard 25 minutes. He’s a dangerous kickboxer with power, who can work at a high rate. And he’s developed on the ground.
With that said, he’s still probably a Tier 2 fighter in this division, and not one of the elites. He’s still going to generally be the one defending takedowns, rather than pursuing them. And he still gets hit often, and he’s been knocked down five times in his UFC career.
That doesn’t include his most recent TKO loss which came in round four against Imavov, nor does it include when he was badly hurt in the first few minutes by Vettori in the fight prior.
Still, I’m very curious to see whether Caio Borralho will live up to the hype because this is a major step up in competition for him, though he’s looked very strong while winning each of his six UFC bouts.
Borralho is a fairly unique fighter, and I haven’t been the most comfortable with his style in the past, mostly because he will do his best to severely limit striking exchanges.
He fights out of a sideways stance and plays at range very well. He does not get hit often at all, and has only absorbed 2.06 sig. strikes per minute thus far which is very strong.
However, he’s only landing 2.91 sig. strikes per minute, which is part of the concern. He is usually in control but typically wants to snipe, which is a fine strategy dependent on the opponent, though it can become a liability against a fighter who can close distance effectively.
Generally speaking, I consider Borralho a technical striker and he has some knockout equity too. He’s now knocked down back-to-back opponents and most recently put Paul Craig down in the second round.
However, I am fairly worried that the public is overrating his skills based on these wins. Paul Craig is a grappler with no real effective striking skills, and that Borralho *only* edged out the first round 20 to 15 is somewhat concerning.
Other than that, he just hasn’t been tested much. He fought a strong kickboxer in Petrosyan but took him down four times and controlled him for 10 minutes. He fought another decent boxer in Oleksiejczuk and did get countered with shots, but ultimately took him down and subbed him as well.
I think Borralho rates out very well in matchups when he can easily play at range, in slower paced exchanges. We have not seen him face much adversity, and I think there’s legitimate reason to question whether he could withstand punishment, or land in volume over an extended period.
Borralho has more tools than just his range striking though. He is also a BJJ black belt and a Judo black belt, which rounds out his game nicely, and it’s been a key to his success in early UFC fights.
Thus far he’s landing 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, and seems to be a quality wrestler. He’s also pretty strong at taking the back, and should have some control and submission upside because of it.
He got taken down twice by Muradov in 2022 and tried to jump guillotines, which was weird and is still a minor concern of mine. It wasn’t the best look and he was controlled for a little while. He still reversed position and ended up winning the fight, but it plays a little bit into my concerns about fighting an opponent who can pressure and produce offense at a high rate.
Otherwise, he’s mostly outclassed guys, and has gone to wrestling, control and back takes when necessary.
In total, Borralho looks very good, with multiple paths to victory. But there’s no question he has fought a much weaker class of opponent than the man standing in front of him on Saturday, so it’s at least worth questioning whether his skills will translate.
I’m honestly not sure of the answer.
In theory, Borralho is better. He’ll be backing up and playing a range, hoping to snipe Cannonier as Cannonier walks him down. I don’t think he’ll get massively ahead on the numbers, but he could land effectively and hurt Cannonier.
Potentially, I could even foresee an early KO win from Borralho.
If the pressure is getting annoying, Borralho will wrestle, and he should be able to get Cannonier down. However, if he does not hold him down and take the back, Cannonier will fight his way back up.
If Cannonier cannot take the back and threaten for chokes, then the takedowns may not be a real factor in scoring, and that’s where he could get in trouble.
Because then you still have Cannonier there, walking you down, trying to punch you in the face. Borralho can continue to wrestle and continue to snipe, but eventually, I do think Cannonier gets in his face and makes it a war. If that happens, I probably just favor Cannonier to win and maybe win by KO.
That actually feels like a pretty realistic outcome to me.
Of course, it just may never happen as Borralho could be too effective at range, and effective with his control. I’m willing to believe he’s capable of it, but again, it would be the most impressive performance of his career, by far.
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On DraftKings, I feel pretty good about the winner of this fight exceeding value and contending for the optimal.
Borralho is priced at 8.6k, and he will be the primary target due to the odds and his style. While a low-scoring kickboxing match is in play, I do think he’ll need significant damage, coupled with grappling success to win.
He’s flashed some upside in the past, scoring 107 in a 2nd round finish against Oleksiejczuk. He’s also had some weak scores of 80, 75, 77 and 68 in three-round decision wins. It’s because he doesn’t throw a ton of strikes.
However, that means he’s still scoring about 15 points per round. So if we extrapolate that out into a 25-minute affair, those mid-70s scores likely turn into a score of 100 points or more.
At 8.6k, I’m willing to play it. He’s +175 to win ITD with grappling upside and KO upside, and could be a primary target on this slate. I also think he’ll be one of, if not the most popular fighter on the slate outright, so that’s worth considering as well.
Cannonier at 7.6k will get some love as well. He won’t rate out the same, with a worse +250 ITD line, against an opponent who doesn’t really absorb strikes.
But as soon as Borralho cannot keep Cannonier away from him, Cannonier can smash. He could land volume, hurt Borralho, or even take him down. There’s certainly upside in general, especially over five rounds.
While Borralho is winning, I don’t think Cannonier will be scoring many points, but that’s more of an issue in regards to his floor than his ceiling. Also, while Cannonier will be popular, he should still present significant leverage against Borralho and can be viewed as a top option because of it.
It’s hard for me to go in heavy on Cannonier here, but I respect his skills and I think there’s more for us to learn about Borralho. He’ll be a strong secondary/leverage target at worst at 7.6k, but it wouldn’t be a horrible decision to lean into if you’re planning on eating the chalk in other spots.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Borralho by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci
Fight Odds: Ricci -120, Hill +104
Odds to Finish: +325
DraftKings Salaries: Hill 8.2k, Ricci 8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off a fantastic performance and finish against Luana Pinheiro, Angela Hill will be looking to continue her momentum this weekend against Tabatha Ricci.
Hill is basically a striker, and she is always live to win striking fights. She lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.86 in return. She defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. I respect Hill on the feet.
She fights hard and can always have success in the clinch. She is also just very tough and has good durability. She can mix in kicks, punches, knees, and elbows. She is just so experienced and comfortable as a striker.
Hill doesn’t really land many takedowns but she has faced great competition and has fought a ton of grapplers recently. She only lands 0.80 takedowns per 15 minutes. I have always considered her an underrated grappler and she actually landed two takedowns and submitted Pinheiro in her most recent win.
Hill does defend takedowns at 76 percent which is solid, and I do think she has really improved her TDD over the years.
Hill can still be controlled for stretches. You saw that against Jandiroba and Dern in her last two losses. Those two are ELITE grapplers though and I have seen Hill scramble up fine vs other fighters.
I just think Hill is a good competitor. She can strike in volume and is tough as nails. She also has decent tdd and is capable of taking down lower tier fighters. I mean she outgrappled Loma Lookboonme and took down Denise Gomes five times. She also outgrappled Pinheiro.
Hill will be taking on Tabatha Ricci. A BJJ black belt, Ricci is mostly a grappler who looks to land takedowns and hold top position on her opponents.
Ricci is not a very good striker. In her UFC debut, she got absolutely annihilated by Manon Fiorot. I don’t fault her much there as Fiorot is honestly one of the best strikers at flyweight. She has generally been outlanded since that fight too though and lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.94 in return.
She can sort of strike and go through the motions, but overall I don’t have much faith in her striking and she doesn’t have much depth on the feet. She got outlanded in her last fight 70-48 at distance against Tecia Pennington and was gifted a split decision that she didn’t deserve.
Ricci’s bread and butter is her grappling. I consider her a decent wrestler. She lands 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, but I do think she has generally outgrappled girls with weak TDD. Robertson, Penne, Viana, and Oliveira have a combined 45 percent tdd rate. That is just awful. Ricci only landed one takedown in six rounds against Godinez and Pennington. So she isn’t easily landing takedowns as she gets steps up in competition.
I still consider Ricci a pretty decent wrestler but I surely think she has padded her metrics against weak defensive wrestlers. I do think Ricci showed solid defensive wrestling against Robertson though and she defends takedowns at 77 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I favor Hill slightly simply because I think she is a better striker. She should land the more impactful strikes here and I do think she has an outside chance of even hurting Ricci. I do think Ricci could compete on the feet, but overall I have much more faith in Hill as a striker. Hill may even be able to mix in takedowns against Ricci. Although I doubt Hill does much with the takedowns and she may not ever choose to go that route.
If Ricci wants to win this fight, she is going to need to outgrapple Hill. I do think Ricci can land takedowns here. However, Hill is a decent defensive wrestler so I do think Ricci will struggle landing takedowns here at times.
I still think landing a couple of takedowns for Ricci is possible in this matchup so she could win this fight. However, I am not even sure Ricci can hold Hill down. Hill has scrambled up fine in other fights.
Overall, I just think Hill is the better striker and has the defensive grappling game to at least minimize Ricci’s grappling success to a degree. So I will pick Hill to win. I do think this will be a competitive fight though.
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On DraftKings, there is some theoretical upside to this matchup as it’s somewhat binary, but it also may be a spot I avoid based on the fight analysis.
Hill is priced at 8.2k, and I lean toward her winning. She should be at a considerable advantage on the feet, and I’m not sold on Ricci’s offensive wrestling.
Hill has actually smashed in recent wins too – scoring 104, 109 and 104, but they need context. The recent 104 came in a submission, and the 109 score came with five takedowns. The other 104 score came with 182 sig. strikes landed.
I highly doubt Hill is going to have extended grappling success in this matchup against an opponent who specializes in grappling. While she may have volume upside, that’s more in a fight that purely takes place standing, and still, I couldn’t project her for much more than 100 sig. strikes in 15 minutes. That’s 70 DK points in win.
Looking further back in Hill’s history, she has decision wins of 71, 77, 64, and 77. That feels more realistic in this matchup, and Hill is only +675 ITD.
If you’re playing her at 8.2k, you’re betting on some additional wrestling success, or an outlier striking performance with volume or damage. It’s possible, but I can’t prioritize it at 8.2k.
I think Hill is an OK secondary option due to pricing and general pacing, but it’s not a great matchup for fantasy upside and I’ll probably end up light on her.
Ricci is going to rate out better at 8k, given her grappling specialty. She will need takedowns to win, and probably several of them.
Ricci has scored 100, 93, 86 and 74 in her wins, which is decent. She probably didn’t deserve the most recent win, and that only came with one td which is why she only scored 74.
I think 3+ takedowns are realistic in this matchup if she wins, and potentially 5+. So at 8k, if Ricci wins a standard decision with wrestling involved, she’s probably scoring 80-90 with some upside on top of that. I wouldn’t bet on a finish at +450 but it’s not impossible.
Simply due to her style, it feels more risky to fade Ricci, and I’ll probably use her as a standard secondary option.
However, I also don’t love her in this matchup and lean toward her losing. So it’s also not a spot I’m excited to be overweight, and if anything, I’d lean toward underweight in the matchup as a whole.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hill by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin
Fight Odds: Valentin -170, Loder +146
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Valentin 8.4k, Loder 7.8k
Weight Class: 185
Yes, The Ultimate Fighter still exists, and yes, we’re forced to watch a pair of tournament final matchups this weekend, starting with Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin at middleweight.
Honestly, I have zero interest in the show as it stands today. Some of the best fighters in the world used to come out of TUF, including a laundry list of names that are too long for me to mention. Many future world champions. Nate Diaz.
But currently, the level of competition is low, and I don’t see much potential in the majority of talent.
Valentin will be making his UFC debut with a 10-3 record at age 29, fighting out of Switzerland. He’s earned three wins by knockout and six by submission, and he finished both of his TUF matches in the first round.
He’s OK. I think he’s a pretty fluid kickboxer with some possibly well-rounded skills.
On TUF, he melted his first opponent in seconds and followed up with some nasty shots on the mat. In his second fight, he and his opponent were trading early, and Valentin had the guy hurt a bit. Valentin decided to throw bombs against the cage but ended up getting rocked himself, and then shot a takedown. He ended up on top and finished with a nice crucifix arm lock.
Otherwise, he seems like a somewhat dangerous fighter early. He’s taking guys down and taking their backs in some of his recent regional fights. Others he’s more kickboxing based.
I did see him get taken down and outgrappled in his most recent pro loss, and I don’t think he’s a phenomenal wrestler. He was defending takedowns OK but ultimately ended up on his back playing guard for a while.
I need to see more footage of Valentin before I make any real stands. But I think his hands are his best attributes. He is pretty fast and explosive, and definitely has some knockout upside. I’m not certain about volume over an extended period, or durability.
His grappling is possibly good enough to defend and attack in scrambles if necessary but I doubt it’s a primary path to victory at the UFC level.
That will get tested this weekend though, as he’ll take on Loder who is an All-American wrestler out of Northern Iowa, and now a wrestling coach at Team Alpha Male.
Loder is 6-1 professionally at age 33 and he’s earned four wins by KO and two by decision.
On TUF, he took his first opponent down immediately and subbed him with an arm-triangle. In his second fight, he landed a couple of takedowns but mostly kickboxed with his opponent to a decision.
I’m not going to lie, I don’t think Loder has the goods. His regional tape is pretty bad. He lost a decision in 2023 where he wasn’t too effective with his wrestling, and his striking looks really poor to me.
That seemed to carry over in his most recent TUF fight too. I just think he has huge technical gaps as a striker, and I can’t imagine him being effective at this level. He tries a bit, but outside of landing something big in a brawl, he’s not going to be winning most striking exchanges.
His pure wrestling is fine, obviously he has the pedigree. But it honestly doesn’t seem great for MMA, and I just haven’t seen him be super effective in taking opponents down. On top, his control and submission game seems pretty weak as well and he has zero pro subs on his record, though again he did win by sub on TUF.
It will simply come down to the level of opponent. If he has a terrible wrestler in front of him, he’ll just take them down, lay on them and probably find a finish. If not, he probably get defended and outstruck, and possibly hurt.
This matchup is most likely binary in the sense that I think Valentin is the better and more effective striker. Loder is the better wrestler.
But I suppose because we saw Valentin rocked, maybe Loder could randomly land a big shot. And since we’ve seen Valentin use some submission skills, maybe he can threaten Loder in a scramble or from his back.
My best guess is that Loder can probably find a takedown or two early, but I’m pretty hesitant to believe he can easily hold Valentin down, or finish him. Maybe.
More likely, I see Valentin getting off his strikes, and potentially piecing Loder up. I’m not sure Valentin is going to fully have the space to land in volume, as Loder should try to clinch and wrestle. But Loder has had multiple kickboxing matches in the past because his wrestling isn’t that effective, so it’s possible.
I guess I’ll take Valentin to win. I really want no part of Loder long term but since it’s a binary matchup, maybe he can find a way to top control. I don’t feel confident in that outcome though.
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On DraftKings, I think this is my least favorite of the three TUF matchups, despite it being one of the title fights.
Loder is probably the easier target due to the wrestling factor at 7.8k. If he wins, wrestling is going to be involved, and it’s possible there could be a level of dominance to it.
For that reason alone, Loder is viable and it’s risky to have little or no exposure. He’s +235 to win ITD which is decent and that’s going to allow him to project well overall. For the price, mixing in some Loder makes sense.
At the same time, I want to bet against Loder longterm, and he is the dog here for a reason. I’d be very cautious about attacking this play because I think there’s a decent chance he looks pretty awful and gets shut out of much success.
That’s just going to lead me to near-field exposure, with a potential underweight lean. It wouldn’t be wrong to play him more aggressively as he does rate out well and his wrestling will give him upside, but I’m very hesitant to buy into the talent and I’ll likely take a bigger risk by being cautious.
Valentin at 8.4k probably needs a knockout. I doubt he’s going to be chasing after takedowns in this matchup, and striking volume alone won’t be enough to get him to the optimal lineup.
You’re really hoping he can defend early, light Loder up and capitalize on a finish. He’s +135 to win ITD so he rates out fairly well from an upside perspective too.
He’s just a boom or bust target. And my fear is that if Loder has any early success, Valentin’s ceiling will be capped. He could be clinched, taken down and just not find a path to unloading his offense.
He is a fine secondary/upside target but there are other options in this price range I lean toward.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Valentin by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos
Fight Odds: Santos -190, Ofli +162
Odds to Finish: Over 1.5 RDs -205
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.5k, Ofli 7.7k
Weight Class: 145
In our featherweight final of The Ultimate Fighter, Australia’s Kaan Ofli will take on Brazil’s Mairon Santos.
Ofli is 11-2 professionally at age 31, and he’s earned two wins by knockout and five by submission.
He’s fairly well-rounded, with competent kickboxing and a black belt in BJJ, though I don’t think he’s incredible in any facet of the game.
My biggest issue with Ofli is that I’m not sure where he’s really going to shine at the UFC level. When fights play out on the feet, sure he can stay competitive at times, but he’s a bit small for featherweight and doesn’t have clear volume or knockout upside.
He looks really tough, but he’s been hurt plenty of times on the regionals and I’d bet on a knockout loss coming sooner or later. I mean, even in his most recent regional fight, which was in 2023, Ofli was getting beaten up early and didn’t look spectacular. He fought back pretty well and ended up beating the guy in round three though.
More recently, I’ve seen him lean on his wrestling and grappling game more, which looks OK. I actually think he’s decent in top position, but his success is going to be dependent on his level of competition.
On TUF, Ofli won his first fight against a bigger Nathan Fletcher who is also on this card. He took Fletcher down early and had him in really bad spots on the mat, almost finishing the fight in round one. Fletcher came back in round two and had his moments, but Ofli was still more effective throughout. Ofli won his second TUF fight with a first-minute guillotine which really wasn’t helpful to watch.
I don’t think Ofli is terrible. His boxing is OK. He can throw leg kicks, and he’s somewhat explosive. He can grapple OK. I just don’t think he’s great at anything and he probably sets up best as a round winner at the UFC level, primarily when he’s facing a weaker defensive grappler.
Mairon Santos is 13-1 professionally at age 24, and probably has the more promise of the two prospects. He’s won seven fights by knockout and his only loss came to Dan Argueta in LFA two years ago.
Santos is really long and he fights long. He stands kind of squared up which I don’t love, but he has long legs and he prefers to work from kicking distance, where I’d say his kicks are his best weapons.
He also prefers to counter strike, where his length and speed mean he can usually beat his opponent to the punch. Typically his fights are slower paced, but he can crack from the outside and is a threat there. He doesn’t have insane power but he can hurt you with speed.
His grappling is where he is weakest. He got kind of ragdolled by Argueta in that loss but to be fair, Argueta is a tough grinder and Santos was still 21 years old. But Argueta got him to the mat often and held him down.
On TUF, Santos won two decisions and both fights were pretty good. His first fight was a war where he proved to be the more effective striker, but exchanges were competitive and he still had to fend off a fair amount of grappling. I think he had an easier time in the semifinals with a similar result.
My takeaway was that Santos was very effective at range, and opponents wanted to wrestle him, and Santos actually defended pretty well. He can be backed up, and he can be pinned against the cage, but it wasn’t egregious and he was trying to fight for space.
When he was taken down, he usually scrambled up immediately, though I thought he looked pretty tired at the end of the first fight and honestly a good wrestler could potentially drown him there.
I don’t think Santos is an elite prospect or anything. Fighters who pressure and close the distance can strike with him. Some will outwrestle him. But he’s quite effective at range and kicking distance, and I think he has a clear path to winning there.
Really, the fight comes down to how effective Ofli can be as a wrestler. While the two stand and trade, I think Ofli can hang in there, but he’s way smaller than Santos who will carry an eight-inch reach advantage.
I think Ofli will struggle to close distance and he might get hurt doing so, and I think the optics will favor Santos. Santos might even win by KO. Ofli could still have success as a pocket boxer but it just feels like a dangerous game to play and I’m not sold he can win that way.
He can win with top position though, where he should have the biggest advantage. I do think his wrestling is good enough to get on the hips of Santos and take him down, but I’m not sure he can hold him down. Even then, it seems like judges are consistently penalizing wrestlers unless they do major damage on the mat, which I’m not sure Ofli will.
I think I have to lean toward Santos for that reason. I consider him more effective at range, and I think his size will be helpful in this matchup, plus I’ve seen Ofli hurt enough that the durability side probably favors Santos as well.
I do think Ofli can compete in all areas and still has a path to victory on the mat, but I think Santos is improving and probably competent enough to neutralize Ofli’s wrestling threat somewhat. I’m not certain about that though.
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On DraftKings, while I think this fight carries the most talent of the three TUF matchups, it’s still a bit tricky to analyze for fantasy purposes.
Mostly, it’s again because the favorite Santos is going to project as a boom or bust target. He shouldn’t be wrestling here, and he’s not really a volume striker.
If this fight gets extended, there’s a very good chance Santos busts. And because of that, he doesn’t have to be prioritized.
He is an effective striker though and I think he’ll be landing on Ofli. ITD odds aren’t out yet but Santos will have a decent one with the Under 1.5 rounds prop sitting at -205. Given the theoretically strong ITD line, Santos is certainly in play.
He’s priced at 8.5k with a rising betting line as well, so he’s a bit of a value. I really don’t mind Santos. Ofli has been hurt plenty of times.
It’s still not extremely likely Santos wins by early KO. He didn’t win by KO in either of his two TUF fights against potentially worse opponents. I like him some as a prospect and am willing to play him on this slate, but the clear bust risk will keep my exposure capped.
Ofli at 7.7k is definitely viable, it’s just a tough matchup.
While he can box and he can throw volume, it’s going to be hard to get inside on Santos and it doesn’t seem likely Ofli can easily put him away. Wrestling is possible but I don’t think that will come easy either.
I suppose what it comes down to is that if Ofli wins this fight, he’s got to be doing one or the other. Damage on the inside or wrestling, and probably wrestling. That does put him in play and gives him upside on DK. His ITD won’t be phenomenal but given the round props, it should be decent.
I don’t mind using Ofli as a secondary target but given the difficulty of the matchup and the number of options priced both above and below him, I won’t aim to be overweight to the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales
Fight Odds: Morales -923, Magny +600
Odds to Finish: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Morales 9.5k, Magny 6.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We will see if young prospect Michael Morales can pass the test when he takes on long time UFC veteran Neil Magny this weekend.
Morales is a great athlete and I think that is his greatest asset. He is explosive in all areas of the game and is competent in all areas as well. He is also only 25 years old and is likely to continue developing too.
Morales is a decent striker. He is very raw though. He lands 5.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.60 in return. He only defends strikes at 52 percent. I do question his overall technical skills as a striker, and he can be hit. However, he just outlanded Max Griffin 68-35 at distance which is a decent box score and I generally liked that performance from him. He also just outlanded Jake Matthews 80-54 in distance strikes which was a good performance as well.
Morales simply has great raw athleticism and power. He knocked out Trevin Giles and Adam Fugitt as well. He is clearly very powerful and capable of knocking people dead at this level. I do think he needs to develop in general though.
Morales is also a capable grappler. He landed four takedowns in his Contender Series fight, but has generally looked to strike since. I think he is capable of getting takedowns and landing GNP with his athleticism. He also defends takedowns at 91 percent and uses his athleticism to assist his defensive grappling.
Morales will be taking on UFC veteran Neil Magny who is coming off an awesome come from behind win against Mike Malott. Magny is a decent fighter. He has a great gas tank, and he weaponizes it tremendously.
Magny lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.42 in return. He defends strikes at 52 percent. He puts on a pace and generally outlands his opponents. He isn’t super skilled, but his cardio is great.
Magny does lack power. He rarely hurts opponents and can be cracked occasionally by opponents with more firepower. He is VERY susceptible to leg kicks and can get absolutely battered and neutralized by them. Ian Garry tore his legs up a couple of fights ago.
Magny thrives at clinching opponents against the cage. He does a good job winning the position up against the cage and mixing in his strikes. He is also a capable wrestler, landing 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, I don’t consider him a great wrestler or capable of outwrestling good wrestlers.
He can moreso take advantage of okay grapplers, especially if he tires them with his pace. I do think he can work his clinch vs a lot of fighters though.
Magny is an okay defensive grappler but not a great one, and has been exposed on the mat a lot recently. He defends takedowns at 54 percent. He can generally work up well but strong grapplers can have success against him.
As far as this matchup goes, I do lean towards the younger and better athlete in Morales here. On the feet, I do favor Morales and I think he is faster with more raw physical gifts than Magny. I also just think he hits harder than Magny as well and is much more likely to win by knockout. Magny is very experienced though so I could see him competing here a bit better than the current odds suggest.
I do think Morales could land takedowns here as well. However, he doesn’t seem interested in grappling lately. I doubt Magny can take Morales down unless he slows Morales down badly.
Overall, I just think Morales is the bigger, younger and more explosive athlete. So I think he will land the more impactful strikes throughout the fight. I also think he is more likely to land takedowns than Magny.
Magny is tough though and has come through as an underdog many times. I do think this line seems a bit steep so Magny may outperform his better line. I still think Morales is the rightful favorite though.
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On DraftKings, Morales is actually NOT the biggest favorite on the board at 9.5k, despite being a near -1000 favorite on some books.
That alone should draw serious attention to Morales, especially in comparison to prices we’ve seen on recent slates.
However, his box scores are also an indication of who he is. Two knockouts, which scored 118 and 100. Two decisions, which scored 65 and 64.
He’s a mild paced striker, with knockout power, and he isn’t necessarily the most aggressive in hunting KOs. So he’ll be a fairly extreme boom or bust target on any slate, in any matchup.
In this particular slate, he’s actually ONLY +130 to win ITD, despite the massive favorite tag. That’s giving a lot of respect to Neil Magny for his toughness and experience, which is fair.
At the same time, Magny can be hurt and he’s been knocked down a handful of times in his career. It’s certainly possible Morales gets the job done.
It’s just hard to prioritize a guy who in theory has a pretty small window to reach his ceiling. And ultimately, you don’t have to target Morales aggressively because of it.
Getting exposure when you can pay up makes sense. It’s still not a wrong decision and there’s still early KO upside for Morales. But targeting Wang ahead of Morales is very viable, as is targeting Reese or Shahbazyan, and if you can’t pay up this high, that’s OK too.
For that reason, my gut feeling is that Morales may not be super chalky. There are other targets nearby with similar or better early finishing equity. I somewhat lean toward them as well, but Morales rates out a bit better for safety, while still carrying upside within his style.
Magny at 6.7k is probably a fade given the moneyline. It’s just tough because he’s come through in many underdog spots before because his style is more effective in the cage than it looks on paper. And he needs control/grappling to win usually, so he can score well.
But he’s +600 to win against a decent opponent, and he’s +1100 to win ITD. Those aren’t really metrics of a fighter I want to make real investments in.
I will prioritize other dogs on this slate with win equity. Perhaps if you need to ultra punt, a small percent of Magny is OK, but it would only be with a large portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Morales by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Fight Odds: Shahbazyan -317, Meerschaert +255
Odds to Finish: -500
DraftKings Salaries: Shahbazyan 9k, Meerschaert 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Man, I feel like Edmen Shahbazyan’s career has been all over the place. He’s back in the win column but will face an interesting veteran test against Gerald Meerschaert this weekend.
Edmen broke out on the scene in his early UFC career by quickly finishing four of his first five opponents in under two and a half minutes. People were very quick to crown him the next champion or big time contender and I was a bit surprised. Quick finishes tend to get overvalued by the betting market and I wanted to see what Edmen looked like in extended fights. We eventually saw that happen and Edmen failed the test miserably.
Edmen has now had a handful of fights go past round one, including some against Darren Stewart, Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, and Nassourdine Imavov. He hung on for dear life against Darren Stewart and won by split decision with a wrestling heavy game plan. But that was back in 2018 and he still slowed down big time in that fight, and that win hasn’t even really aged well as Stewart isn’t even with the promotion anymore.
Edmen competed fine against Brunson, Hermansson, and Imavov in round one but eventually he slowed down, was beaten up on the feet a bit and badly beaten on the mat. He also recently gassed out and was finished in the second round by Anthony Hernandez. It just showed me that Edmen is not really trustworthy against solid competition if the fight gets extended.
Edmen is mostly an early power striker and wrestler. He lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.09 in return. He defends strikes at 45 percent. I pretty much expect Edmen to compete as a striker early, especially with his power, but I don’t trust him in extended exchanges or extended fights at all as he slows down and I just can’t project him to do well later in fights.
Edmen does come from a wrestling background and I definitely think he can wreck some weak grapplers on the mat. I do like his wrestling when he is fresh. He lands 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes, but 8 of his 12 takedowns all came against Darren Stewart, so he’s not a guy we can rely on to shoot lots of takedowns in an average fight. .
I think he can have success wrestling early against guys but I can’t expect him to carry on wrestling success later in fights as he just hasn’t demonstrated the cardio to do it. He also tends to be taken down and is susceptible to ground and pound later in fights when he is tired. He only defends takedowns at 63 percent.
Edmen will be taking on Gerald Meerschaert. Meerschaert is a goofy opportunistic fighter, and that is the best way to describe him. I don’t really trust him to win rounds by outstriking his opponents on the feet as he lands 3.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.37 in return. However, he is tough and willing to throw down.
He actually stunned and was tagging Makhmud Muradov on the feet quite often, which was probably Meerschaert’s best performance to date. Although he still got hit in that fight plenty himself.
I also don’t trust Meerschaert to win with top control grappling all that often. He does land 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is solid, but he only defends takedowns at 34 percent and is never really winning fights with top control. So I just don’t trust him to win rounds which is why I don’t like his process of winning fights.
He did win a pretty comfortable fight with takedowns, top control and a submission in his most recent win against Bryan Barberena. However, Meerschaert’s fights are usually way messier than that.
Meerschaert is very opportunistic though. I wouldn’t consider him to be a very hard hitter, although he has hurt a couple of people on the feet in his UFC career. He is a pretty dangerous submission grappler and if he gets your back on the mat, he can absolutely submit UFC level fighters. He also has a good guillotine choke.
My issue with Meerschaert is that I don’t fully trust his process of getting fighters with good TDD to the mat. He can get put in really bad positions trying to scramble to get back takes. The guy will literally give up his back hoping he can reverse position and get a dominant grappling position. That might work on tired fighters or lower level guys, but against competent grapplers that is an awful idea. Meerschaert found that out the hard way against Hermansson who murdered him with ground and pound from back mount.
As far as this matchup goes, it is pretty easy to draw out each guy’s path to victory. Edmen will be at a physicality and power advantage early on the feet. I could easily see Edmen walking out there, hurting Meerschaert and knocking him out. It is probably the most likely outcome of the fight and what I am personally going to pick to happen. Either way, I think Edmen will have early success in this fight.
However, if Edmen does not put away Meerschaert, I absolutely think Edmen could find himself in trouble. Meerschaert has better cardio than Edmen and is just tougher in latter halves of fights. It is not hard to imagine Meerschaert submitting or finishing a tired Edmen.
If Edmen just happens to not finish Meerschaert, I could see Meerschaert turning this fight around. If Meerschaert gets on top of a tired Edmen, I honestly don’t see Edmen surviving.
I still don’t trust Meerschaert’s durability though. We have seen him knocked dead so many times before. So I will pick Edmen to get the win. I do think the betting line is wide though and looking to live bet Meerschaert is probably the best way to approach this fight from a betting perspective.
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On DraftKings, this is among my favorite fights to target on the slate given the dynamics.
All of Shahbazyan’s wins come early. It’s translated to DK success as he’s scored 98, 130, 101, 116, 95 and 118 in those wins.
Now priced at 9k, against an opponent whom he should have physical advantages over, it’s easy to picture an early Shahbazyan KO. He is -250 to win ITD and has one of the better chances on the slate to grab a quick finish.
And for that reason, I like him a lot as a tournament target. Of course there are other fighters to consider, and Shahbazyan still profiles as a boom or bust option, but his chances of booming seem pretty strong.
I expect he’ll be very popular given his price tag and recent scores, and ITD metrics. He could be an outright priority in this range but if not, he’s still worth considering and at 9k I expect I’ll end up with moderate exposure.
Meerschaert is priced down to 7.2k and has a clear path to a mid-round finish.
My issue with him has always been that he doesn’t produce a lot of offense and generally comes from behind. So we’ve seen finishes from Meerschaert that scored 77, 62, and 85. He also has big wins though from early finishes.
While I’m not sold on his pure top-end ceiling, the path for a Meerschaert finish is just so obvious. Shahbazyan gasses out every time past the first round, and Meerschaert is known for hanging around and finding success in grappling exchanges late.
It’s fair to favor Shahbazyan but I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if they rolled the dice on this fight 100 times and we found out that Meerschaert survives much more often than the odds suggest. At 7.2k, Meerschaert is a good tournament target.
He is only +425 to win ITD but may carry leverage against Shahbazyan and also Buzukja nearby. I will limit my exposure to a degree as he’s a sizable dog, but I like Meerschaert for this price and wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Shahbazyan by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Dennis Buzukja vs. Francis Marshall
Fight Odds: Marshall -145, Buzukja +126
Odds to Finish: Over 2.5 RDs -210
DraftKings Salaries: Marshall 8.3k, Buzukja 7.4k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Originally booked to fight Danny Silva, Dennis Buzukja will now be fighting Francis Marshall who is taking this fight on less than a week’s notice.
Marshall is a decent prospect. He looked decent on the Contender Series and boat raced Marcelo Rojo a couple of fights ago in his UFC debut. He is 7-2 professionally and 12-2 if you include amateur fights.
Coming from a wrestling background, Marshall likes to mix in takedowns and look for the back. About half of his wins have come from RNC. He has a good double leg.
He landed six of 10 takedowns in his Contender Series fight. I don’t think he has the best top control though. He is capable of floating in someone’s guard or getting the back. However, I don’t think he will easily hold down competent scramblers. I do think he has good GNP though.
Marshall is actually a pretty decent striker too. He outlanded his Contender Series opponent 101-74 at distance and dominated the head strike battle 101-51. He has a really good 1-2 straight punch combination and is accurate with it. I also think he has decent power. He kept hurting his opponent. He also showed crisp striking against Marcelo Rojo and knocked him dead.
I do think Marshall is a bit green though and is developing, which makes sense because he is only 25 years old. He doesn’t throw much other than the 1-2 and I do question his defense on the feet. He can be hit, and I think as he gets steps up in competition, his defense will be exposed more.
I still have hope for Marshall though just because of his overall offensive output / pace and youth. This kid is incredibly offensive minded and has the cardio to fight for 15 minutes. In his Contender Series fight, I’ll reiterate that he attempted 10 takedowns and 275 total strikes. That is just a TON of offense.
I don’t think Marshall is good enough in any specific area technically to ever be a serious contender in this weight class. However, I definitely think Marshall is UFC level.
Marshall lost to William Gomis two fights ago but Gomis is a very tricky defensive fighter and hard to get ahold of. Gomis won a super low volume and engagement limiting performance but Marshall easily won round three. It wasn’t an awful performance by Marshall. It was kind of just a tricky matchup against a guy who cares about defense more than anything.
Then Marshall got outwrestled and finished in round one against Isaac Dulgarian. I honestly don’t fault Marshall for that loss either. Dulgarian is an incredible wrestler when he is fresh and it was just a tough matchup for Marshall overall. I do think Marshall has decent defensive grappling but very good grapplers like Dulgarian can have their way with him.
I still think Marshall is a decent prospect despite his last two losses. Gomis is just very tricky defensively and Dulgarian is an elite wrestler. When Marshall is actually allowed to let his offense flow, I do think he has some skills.
Marshall will be taking on Dennis Buzukja. Buzukja was last seen in the Octagon winning his first UFC fight against Connon Matthews, the same fighter who Marshall beat on DWCS. Although it was against a poor opponent, Buzukja actually looked good and landed 83 significant strikes and won the fight by knockout.
I still don’t think Buzukja is very good. He is a tough guy and can go through the motions everywhere, but he just isn’t very athletic or good at anything in particular. He is a fine regional fighter and is somewhat well-rounded. However, that is about it.
As a striker, Buzukja just isn’t very fast and athletic. He is tough and will try hard and will wing some punches in the pocket and come forward. However, his defense is not very good, and I don’t like his volume. His best chance on the feet is just to stay tough and hope to land decent combinations here and there.
As a grappler, Buzukja is competent, but again he is just not great. I don’t think he will easily outgrapple UFC level competition. I do think he is at least decent at scrambling back to his feet when taken down. However, the fact that he was taken down by Sean Woodson four times was a bad sign.
I just don’t think Buzukja is great anywhere. I think his best chance in general to win fights is outcardio a bad fighter or just securing a very random finish. He could also probably win brawls against similarly matched opponents.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think this will be a fun one. Marshall is very aggressive and Buzukja is tough with good cardio and will surely swing back. On the feet, I just think it is going to be back and forth, and both guys are going to land a lot of strikes as I question both of their defense. So I do think this will be a bit random and it is hard to be confident in either side.
I do think Marshall looks a little faster and more talented though. I also tend to think he has more power on the feet. I just think he is still developing and his ceiling as a fighter is higher. We also have not seen Marshall compete for over a year so he has improvement upside.
I do think Marshall is more likely to land takedowns but I do think Buzukja will scramble back up to his feet. I generally just think the winner of this fight will be the winner of the striking exchanges.
This should just be a fun one with two fun action fighters. I like Marshall’s overall offensive output and his wrestling a bit more so I will pick him. I also just think Marshall is a better prospect in the long run with more talent. Marshall may not be in shape though because he is taking this on short notice. However, Marshall generally has great cardio so my guess is he will show up looking fine.
I still do think both guys will surrender a lot of offense so it is a tough fight to be confident in. However, I will go with Marshall as I think he is the more talented fighter.
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On DraftKings, the most important thing to note is that since Buzukja is taking a short notice matchup, he is not priced appropriately.
He is 7.4k and only +126 to win, which is a very strong value on this card in particular, where we have multiple dogs with essentially no win equity. I think this value alone puts Buzukja squarely in play in all formats, and I expect him to be popular.
Especially coming off a knockout win that scored 89 points, while his opponent is coming off an early finish loss, it’s easy to click on Buzukja and I will likely have moderate exposure.
A couple points though – it’s worth noting that despite the super short notice bout, Buzukja is still the dog. It says something about how his overall talent is viewed publicly.
Additionally, the guy who Buzukja just beat is the same guy who Marshall obliterated on DWCS as well.
I really like this matchup for pacing though. Both guys are aggressive and willing to bang. If Buzukja wins, it will come from a moderate volume of strikes, and likely damage, and potentially a late finish due to cardio.
ITD odds aren’t out yet and Buzukja won’t have a great one, but I think there’s some KD potential here given the short notice aspect. At 7.4k, Buzukja won’t rate out incredibly well for upside and you don’t need to prioritize him heavily, but he clearly has strong win equity for this price and is an easy pay-down option.
Marshall is now priced at 8.3k and I think he’s a quality option because he can wrestle.
I actually am worried that his wrestling won’t be impactful, but that doesn’t matter too much if he wins. He can land 5+ takedowns and 100+ significant strikes, which is plenty enough offense to exceed value at the price.
Perhaps he won’t wrestle at all but I’d expect a few tds to be mixed in here and there over 15 minutes, plus lots of strikes. Marshall won’t have a great ITD line either so there’s some risk there, and some risk in his short notice and tight betting line. He might lose the fight obviously.
If he wins, I think he’ll produce a fair amount of offense, some of which will come on the ground, and that’s enough for me to target him as a strong secondary option at 8.3k.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Marshall by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Zachary Reese vs. Jose Medina
Fight Odds: Reese -563, Medina +410
Odds to Finish: -500
DraftKings Salaries: Reese 9.2k, Medina 7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jose Medina fought on this past season of Contender Series where he dropped a decision to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. Nonetheless, he’s being brought in to make his UFC debut on Saturday down at 185 lbs – he’s 11-3 as a pro. Zachary Reese is a fellow Contender Series alum who rebounded nicely after dropping the ball in his debut this past December – he’s 1-1 in the UFC and 7-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Despite having 14 fights under his belt, our footage on Medina isn’t vast generally, especially on the feet. In the bit we have, it hasn’t been the prettiest picture.
He’s a relatively plodding guy who’s not a great athlete and is largely one dimensional in his boxing. But he doesn’t fight at much of a pace, isn’t an established clear minute winner and hasn’t been a perennial distance power threat.
He’ll keep a higher guard at times but also walks into shots and has struggled with kicks, more specifically in his last couple fights where he’s gotten hurt to the body.
On the Contender Series, he just got outworked by Gadzhiyasulov where he was out landed 67-16 at distance in a fight that had eight minutes of time at range.
Overall, he’s shown some toughness to credit but I don’t see a ton of positives with his striking game outside of him kind of just existing.
Reese is a longer guy at the weight class standing 6’4” with a 77” reach.
He comes from a muay thai background and despite being a Texas native, he’s done his last couple camps at Bangtao in Thailand.
He’s a difficult guy to analyze though considering he only has a whopping 11 minutes of cage time as a pro and has never been outside of the 1st round.
In the bit we have, he does appear to have some process to his game, as he’ll throw some longer-range kicks, step in knees and mix hooks up in the pocket.
It goes without saying that he’s proven dangerous with five of his seven pro wins coming via strikes.
We just don’t have much of him in extended exchanges as he’s often hurting guys right in his initial flurries and entries.
Defensively is where I still have some hesitations though, as his frame gives him elements of tall man’s defense where he’s dropping his hands or trying to lean out of opponent attacks.
In his defense, he took some clean shots early from both Aronov and Brundage. But his tendencies will probably get him clipped at the UFC level eventually.
Overall, I really need more data in extended exchanges before making any definitive claims with Reese.
How it plays out: Reese will realize a 4” height and 3” reach advantage in this spot. Despite some of the questions on how Reese fares in more extended exchanges, his more diverse striking style is one that should pose a healthy number of issues to Medina. Medina’s never been stopped with strikes before, but Reese is probably a good candidate to change that. The standing merit I’d more so see to Medina would be in surviving early and hoping that Reese gasses out.
The wrestling/grappling component:
The ground’s been a bit Jekyll and Hyde for Medina as we’ve seen some weak spots from him, but it’s also been the primary component of his career success.
He’s a BJJ purple belt but his wrestling isn’t very good, where a good chunk of his success is just coming from more incompetent opponents. But he’s shown to be stronger from top positions at times, leading to a handful of submission wins or positional TKOs.
His defensive wrestling has also generally been poor and was exploited by Gadzhiyasulov on Contender Series where he was taken down six times on seven attempts, getting controlled for six minutes.
In his defense, he doesn’t necessarily accept positions as he’s shown some scrambling abilities regionally to work out of positions and reshoot.
However, he also gives his back like clockwork to get back to the feet as per evidence in multiple fights. He’s been submitted once but it was in a fight I wasn’t able to view and was all the way back in 2018.
Overall, Medina’s capable enough to have success against incompetent fighters but will run into bigger issues now fighting at a UFC level both offensively and defensively.
Despite being a base striker, Reese also reps a BJJ purple belt.
He’s mixed some TDs into his earlier fights where his opponents didn’t put up any real resistance to where he was able to score positional TKOs.
But we’ve also seen him get taken down in a handful of fights with caught kicks as well.
His guard appears to be okay as I’ve seen him turn over on a power guillotine and lock up a quicker armbar on the Contender Series – all three of his amateur wins came via submission as well, but two of which came from the guard.
Brundage got him down without much issue in his debut where he threatened an armlock originally and Brundage defended. Then he had a viable attempt at a triangle but held onto it and got slam KO’d.
Overall, similar to the striking, it’s hard to make any definitive claims with Reese given sample. But 185 isn’t exactly a deep weight class in regards to grappling talent, so he’ll probably be able to exploit some lesser opponents there going forward. However, he’s still got guard playing elements to his game where he’ll probably get locked down by more capable top players.
How it plays out: Battle of the purple belts. In the bit we have, Reese appears to be the more capable submission grappler of the two and isn’t the guy in the equation that consistently gives his back. I still question Reese’s wrestling capabilities though to where there is a world where if Medina gets on top, he may be able to avoid guard attacks from Reese and rack up some minutes. A lot of overall conjecture though.
I’m still not really sold on Reese as a talent considering there’s still quite a bit we have to learn about his game. At the same time, this Medina guy really doesn’t look to be UFC level where I question why he was even brought into the organization after losing a UD 30-27 decision on CS. The assumption is that he’ll be used in a prospect building role based on the current booking. Ultimately, I think Reese finishes him, but we still don’t know if he can fight a hard 15 minutes or handle larger swaths of adversity.
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On DraftKings, Reese has some definite viability given his finishing upside and 9.2k price tag.
He’s a heavy favorite, and has only won in round one in his pro career. Simply based on that alone, he’s going to have considerable early finishing equity.
Medina is also one of the worst fighters I’ve seen the UFC sign in recent memory. Honestly, I have no idea why they’re bringing him in. I haven’t really seen any positive footage from him and he looks out of shape.
With that said, there’s nothing to suggest Reese can definitely win fights past round one, and Medina has never been finished with strikes. So if Reese doesn’t win quickly, maybe he blows up.
Reese will be a boom or bust target for that reason but he’s -325 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate, and he’s coming off a 127 point win in 20 seconds. I do think he can find an early finish, and considering the price discount from the top end, I don’t mind targeting him moderately.
There’s definitely more safety in paying up to Cong or Morales, but Reese arguably has the best chance to win quickly of the group. He’ll be a very strong tournament target overall, but my expectations from him outside of the first few minutes aren’t high.
Medina at 7k is not someone I want exposure to based on talent. I would be absolutely shocked if he had any real success at this level.
Talent alone isn’t always the most important thing though. There’s a chance he has superior cardio and could have advantages late, by getting on top. I’m still skeptical of that but it’s at least a possibility.
Medina is only +650 to win ITD and I really doubt he’s going to produce much offense. He’ll be very low owned though and will be significant leverage against Reese.
I think I’d rather target him than Leonardo, though I’m not sure about Magny. None of them have much win equity, but I’m by far the most skeptical of Reese’s talents compared to the other top options. So in that sense, taking a small percentage of Medina in large fields is still OK.
I just don’t think he’s a good fighter and his metrics are bad in this matchup, so I’d rather pay up when possible.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Reese by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. James Llontop
Fight Odds: Borshchev -214, Llontop +181
Odds to Finish: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Borshchev 8.7k, Llontop 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually excited about this fight between Viacheslav Borshchev and James Llontop as I think it could be pretty entertaining.
So Borshchev comes from a kickboxing background where he had an 18-2 record.
Borshchev has looked good as a striker in the UFC as well. He lands 5.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.49 in return. Those metrics are skewed though as he was just outlanded 62-2 in significant strikes against Chase Hooper which were generally strikes absorbed on the ground.
On the feet, Borshchev is solid. He has some good hands and kicks. He is just diverse on the feet and also has power, and has won by knockout in the UFC a couple of times. He was hurt in his most recent fights against Hooper and Sadykhov though, so his durability is a bit of a concern. However, he can compete just fine on the feet in the UFC.
Borshchev’s weakness is his grappling. On the regionals, he was taken down and struggled at times. Furthermore, he was dominated on the mat by Marc Diakiese, Mike Davis, and Chase Hooper. He is just not a great defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 35 percent.
I do think Borshchev’s get ups are decent, especially early though. I mean Borshchev working up is the reason that Diakiese had to land so many takedowns. Diakiese also attempted 18 takedowns in that fight which was absurd. I do think below-average grapplers in this division won’t be able to pull off what Diakiese did to Borshchev though, as it is tough to attempt 18 takedowns in a fight and not gas out. Average and above-average grapplers will surely continue to expose Borechev on the mat though.
Borshchev will be taking on James Llontop who is coming off an embarrassing loss as a big favorite to Chris Padilla. Llontop was getting the better of the striking exchanges in that fight, but got his back taken on a quick sequence and was choked out at the end of round one.
Llontop is 14-3 professionally and he has mostly fought poor competition. Llontop booked his ticket to the UFC by beating the crap out of Malik Lewis on the Contender Series. Llontop soundly outstruck Lewis throughout the fight, stopped takedowns when he needed to, and just put a pace on Lewis for 15 minutes.
Pace and cardio are the biggest weapons that Llontop has. This guy just does not get tired and will go forward HARD for 15 minutes.
I think Llontop is best as a striker. He has an absolutely brutal switch kick that he will mix to the head and body. I like his straight punches. He also will mix it up to all levels and target the legs, body, and head. He again just brutalizes his opponents for 15 minutes and will not stop coming. I definitely think he can do well on the feet at this level.
Llontop will also look to land takedowns and beat people up with ground-and-pound from top position. I don’t think he is the most technical wrestler, but his pace and ground-and-pound are relentless and he will look to land strikes from position to position.
Llontop also looks like a competent defensive wrestler to me. I did see him get his back taken once on the regionals which wasn’t great. He was also submitted by Padilla. However, he is always working to his feet and outside of a back take and rear naked choke sequence, and I think he will be hard to hold down.
I think this is going to be a banger on the feet. I think Borshchev is a bit more technical and experienced on the feet so him being favored is reasonable to me. However, I really think Llontop is tough to deal with on the feet. He just pressures so much and I think either of these guys could hurt one another.
I think I like Borshchev’s experience and technicality a bit while I like Llontop’s aggressiveness more. I really just think it is going to be a competitive striking fight where both guys have moments.
I do think if anyone has grappling success though it will be Llontop. He isn’t a great wrestler but he is aggressive and Borshchev just has bad enough defensive wrestling where any type of grappling success by Llontop wouldn’t surprise me. Llontop also has ruthless ground-and-pound from top position. I doubt Borshchev can have much grappling success here.
I just think the pace is going to be very high here as both guys throw a ton of volume and both guys are aggressive in their own way. I do think picking Borshchev is fair. His competition has been so much better and he may just be a level above Llontop. However, I do think the line is a tad wide so I will pick Llontop to win as the aggressor with more grappling upside. This should be a barn burner though, and this is high-variance city.
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On DraftKings, I’m somewhat interested in this fight as it should be high paced, with potential to end ITD early.
Borshchev is a monster kickboxer, and I’ve backed him on a few occasions when I thought he had KO upside. Sometimes he has come through, but getting dropped by Chase Hooper in his last fight is a MAJOR concern to me.
You can argue he was too focused on grappling there, but he was also hurt badly in his previous fight. With a long history of kickboxing, he’s taken a lot of damage I’m sure and I think it’s negatively affecting his durability.
So against a fighter like Llontop, there’s surely KO upside, and KO downside. The fight is -150 to end ITD as a whole which shows some finishing equity.
Borshchev is priced at 8.7k and he’ll be very boom or bust. He’s not going to grapple and striking volume doesn’t really matter for fantasy purposes, so he needs the KO. His two wins in the UFC have come the KO and he’s scored 112 and 134.
He is +140 to win ITD in this matchup which is decent, and he’s a fine target. I’m somewhat nervous though. I prefer to target him against severely lacking opponents or grapplers where the matchup is binary. I feel less confident in him securing the KO here and it’s possible the field will feel the same.
So although Borshchev is fine, with KO upside, and he can be played as an upside tournament target, I probably won’t be heavy in this spot. Just plenty of bust risk in an extended fight, as well as some chance that he loses.
Llontop at 7.5k may honestly be preferred even though I’m not especially confident in his talents.
I do like his pacing, and there’s some KO upside given the matchup dynamic. He’s +290 to win ITD which is OK. He could also possibly have grappling success, which is tough to project as well, but it’s not off the table.
The combination of those things give me some hope for Llontop to win and to score extremely well in a win. He’s not a standout target but he’s possibly a good buy back coming off a debut loss, and someone I’d like exposure to on this slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Borshchev by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Josiane Nunes
Fight Odds: Cavalcanti -217, Nunes +183
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Cavalcanti 8.5k, Nunes 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Josiane Nunes will be taking her 2nd consecutive booking down at 135 lbs and she’ll be looking to rebound after suffering her first UFC loss back in March to Chelsea Chandler – she’s 3-1 in the UFC and 10-2 as a pro. Jacqueline Cavalcanti earned a UFC contract this past year on the heels of winning the vacant LFA 135 lb title. She made good on her debut last September with a decision win over Zarah Fairn – she’s 6-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Nunes is one of the shorter girls at 135/145, standing only 5’2” but she does possess a 67” reach. The best way to describe her is a Walmart version of Jessica Andrade.
She’s not overtly technical in what she does but goes forward, likes to walk girls down and throw bigger shots. Through four UFC fights, she lands 6 SLpM at 44% and has a 70% KO rate in wins.
Despite not securing KOs in her last two wins over Pascual and Fairn, she hurt both girl’s numerous times in those fights. Her debut KO over Malecki was pretty nasty as well.
The most recent fight against Chandler had competitive elements on the feet with the distance strikes being even, but Nunes was landing the bigger shots.
Despite her potent offensive game, her defense is largely an afterthought where she eats 5.3 SApM at 53%.
She’s proven her toughness though in the ability to take shots although she hasn’t fought many bigger hitters.
Even in besting Malecki, Pascual and Fairn, all three had their own successes in the fights as well – most notably Fairn as she was able to take a round from Nunes and actually out landed her 117 to 102. The bigger moments/flurries and optics just all went to Nunes earning her that victory, but it was still a close fight.
Overall, Nunes isn’t going to be an easy girl to look good against if opponents can’t match her pace or don’t have the defensive acumen to keep her at bay.
Cavalcanti comes from a kickboxing and muay thai background where she’s still relatively newer to MMA, having only been full time in the sport for a little over three years.
But she’s got a good frame for the division, standing 5’8” with a 70”while also possessing some respectable technical tools.
She’s shown she can fight within all three ranges and mixes up her attacks well between straights, offbeat counters and leg kicks.
Cavalcanti’s pace has also been pretty consistent over her shorter career and she has shown power elements as well, with three of her six pro wins coming via KO/TKO – she also hurt Croden badly early in their fight back in LFA.
Her debut showing was solid to boot, out landing Fairn 126 to 39 over the course of 15 minutes – additionally holding Fairn to only 15% on striking accuracy.
It hasn’t been all roses for her though as she lost a competitive striking fight to Martina Jindrova on the PFL Challenger Series.
It’s a fight that could have realistically gone either way as the strike counts were close. But Jindrova did find some blitzing based success in the fight, stunning Cavalcanti at one point.
The fight was also 2.5 years ago and in totality, she hasn’t faced a ton of resistance.
But overall, I largely like what I’ve seen from her on the feet to date, additionally under the context that she’s still only 26 years old so that’s lots of margin for improvement as well.
How it plays out: Cavalcanti will realize a 6” height and 3” reach advantage in this spot. For the most part, Nunes being undersized hasn’t held her back much in being able to find her way inside on opponents but Cavalcanti is one of the more technical strikers she’s faced to date who can also match Nunes’ pace if not exceed it. It’s really the footwork and angles that Cavalcanti takes, which should give Nunes the biggest amount of issue. On the flip side though, there’s some definite merit to Nunes forcing a dog fight to potentially take Cavalcanti out of her element.
The wrestling/grappling component:
There isn’t too much to say here with Nunes as she’s not a girl that wrestles and only reps a BJJ blue belt with no pro wins or losses via submission.
However, there are some fights to hit on.
She was stuck against the fence for roughly 75% of her fight with Araujo back in 2019 and just held onto a half-hearted guillotine. Barbosa went 2/4 against her also back in 2019 and was able to rack up some good ground minutes there. Pascual only went 3/10 on Nunes but Nunes also struggled working back to her feet there – Pascual just landed the TDs later in each round.
Most recently, the ground against Nunes was the ultimate difference maker in the fight as Chandler went 2/2, racking up seven minutes of control to win the first couple rounds – Nunes was also put in dominant positions in the 2nd round.
Overall, Nunes possesses little offensive upside outside of getting on top of hurt girls. In the bit we have of her defensively, it’s not a great picture and I’d assume she’s going to continue to drop minutes or rounds to more competent ground fighters at the UFC level.
There’s not much to say here with Cavalcanti on the floor pro or con based on sample.
Given her striking background, she’s not a fighter you’re going to see go out and really push TDs. She’s had a few half-hearted attempts, but I haven’t seen her land a conventional TD to date.
Defensively, she’s been shot on here and there but has largely stayed upright outside of one instance where she got hit with a double leg, but kicked off and worked up right away.
To my knowledge, she has no current jiu-jitsu credentials but has spent a handful of years training out of Blackhouse with girls like Piera Rodriguez and Tabatha Ricci – two solid ground bodies to be working with.
Overall, her ground game is largely a question mark at this point.
How it plays out: Given the historic lack of offensive pursuit from both girls, it’s pretty difficult to project how ground sequences play – coupled with Cavalcanti being a larger question on the bottom. But Nunes is evidently poor so there could be some merit to Cavalcanti just based on being the bigger girl who could potentially find her way on top from clinching scenarios.
Given what was ran through in the striking breakdown, Cavalcanti will be my pick to win a striking based decision but as noted, Nunes is a tough girl that’s aggressive and hits hard so her tightening margin or winning outright wouldn’t be a particularly shocking result.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think this is a priority fight though the pacing should still be nice and there may be a bit of value on Cavalcanti.
She is priced at 8.5k and has been bet up this week north of -200, so she seems fairly safe to win at this price tag. And she just landed 126 sig. strikes in 15 minutes, where she’ll now face another opponent whom she can land on, I do think lots of strikes are in play.
Still, that last decision win only scored her 81 points, which won’t be enough at the price. Projecting more volume upside isn’t fair, and I think she’ll need a KD or grappling exchanges to really hit a ceiling.
Cavalcanti is only +385 to win ITD which is poor and is perhaps one reason to avoid her this week. If she can only win a decision, her chances of breaking 90 points are slim.
I consider her more of a safe option, with a decent floor and I don’t mind her if you’re stuck in the mid 8ks. I may end up with secondary exposure by default. But I definitely won’t force her in and her questionable ceiling should put a firm cap on your exposure.
Nunes at 7.7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
Perhaps she can find her way on the inside, land a lot of volume and score another KO. Perhaps there’s mild grappling equity. I think she’ll be a step behind Cavalcanti technically and she’s a lot smaller, with no historic path to grappling success.
Nunes is +325 to win ITD which is actually a better line than Cavalcanti’s for what it’s worth, and maybe she can be considered because of it. I think the most likely outcome is she gets outstruck and loses a clean decision though, so I’m not overly excited to play her.
There are better dogs in my opinion with better matchups, or more obvious paths to upside. I will end up light on Nunes for this reason. She does at least fight aggressively and there’s a limited sample on Cavalcanti, so it’s not as if you have to fade Nunes. I just don’t think this is a particularly strong matchup for her and I’m not looking to make any significant investment.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cavalcanti by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Zygimantas Ramaska vs. Nathan Fletcher
Fight Odds: Fletcher -150, Ramaksa +130
Odds to Finish: Under 1.5 RDs -130
DraftKings Salaries: Cavalcanti 8.5k, Nunes 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Zygimantas Ramaska was a part of the recent TUF 32 season. Despite getting his hand raised in the quarterfinal matchup, he suffered a facial fracture in the fight where he wasn’t able to compete going forward – he’s 9-2 as a pro. Nathan Fletcher is a UK prospect hailing from the Cage Warriors scene. He was a fellow castmate on this season of TUF but lost his quarterfinal matchup to Kaan Ofli – he’s 8-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Ramaska’s a taller 145er, standing 5’11” with a 71” reach.
Our footage on him overall isn’t vast, so making a hardline read on him is still a bit difficult.
In what we have, he doesn’t appear to be the most technical guy in the world as his game largely just revolves around blitzing opponents or biting down on the mouthpiece and trying to win a war that way.
In his defense, it’s worked out well for him over the years as he’s 5-1 to the KO.
But his reckless nature leaves him with essentially no defense which is ultimately what almost got him smoked in the quarterfinals of TUF.
It was a big hook from Usmonov that dropped him and broke his face. But Ramaska showed a ton of heart and toughness to power through that and go on to win that fight – there should have been a 3rd round there in my opinion but it looked like Ramaska was taking over anyway.
But despite showing off his toughness in that bout, he got absolutely blasted by Tumenov in his first pro loss back in 2018 – not a bad loss hindsight 20/20 though as Tumenov is a stud.
He’s still got buckled in other fights though where he profiles to be a kill or be killed going forward.
Fletcher’s a grappler by base and as a result, all his fights have devolved into grappling matches so despite having a decent amount of footage to view, there isn’t a ton to analyze on the feet.
In the bit we have, he doesn’t seem very comfortable standing.
I thought his hands looked a bit better a few fights back against Giordano but by and large, he’s really only using his striking to try to set up his grappling in which I don’t think he even does that very well.
He’s generally lower volume at range to where he’s just feinting a jab or throwing an overhand right to then shoot a TD.
But he can be pushed backwards at times and isn’t stringing together any real combinations.
He only has one pro win via strikes but that was a positional TKO, so he also hasn’t shown any semblance of power standing either.
The lone pro loss he has came against Wooding in a title fight that he was winning, but got caught late with a knee coming in to where he then got head kicked and finished off with punches – I’ve seen him get rocked with a knee coming in before as well so it’s not the first time it happened.
Overall, I haven’t seen anything to suggest that Fletcher’s going to be much of a threat standing to the guys he’s fighting on the feet, barring bigger evolutions from him going forward – he’s only 26 years old though so there is scope for optimism.
How it plays out: Despite me not thinking Ramaska is some technical savant on the feet, Fletcher’s going to be in some trouble when this fight is standing. He just doesn’t have the general footwork or defensive striking capabilities to keep someone like Ramaska at bay. But Ramaska’s striking in all likelihood will leave him exposed to wrestling which will touch on in the next section.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Apparently Ramaska comes from a combat sambo background but there isn’t a ton in his tape that really suggests that’s the case.
He’s hit some upper body stuff here and there but has never been able to really control any opponents he’s grounded.
Ramaska has four subs of his nine pro wins but three are via guillotine so he hasn’t shown much process grappling upside. Defensively, he’s by and large losing in the wrestling of his fights as I don’t think his TDD is very good.
He has been able to work up and out of positions eventually but is someone that profiles to struggle with stronger positional players of a better level.
That’s about all there is to say with him at this point.
Fletcher’s a grappler by base where the large bulk of his fights have gone the same.
He’ll rinse and repeat TDs to where he can either grind guys out or find his positions to eventually submit.
But despite his career success in this realm, I really don’t think he’s a very good technical wrestler or grappler to be completely honest.
Fletcher more so falls into the hustler/attritional type grappler category for me where he’s going to just overwhelm opponents who don’t have the capabilities to keep him at bay.
But his general open mat wrestling is poor to where the large bulk of his TDs are coming from body locks or wrestle rides.
Opponents have been able to work up under him though relatively consistently and he’s lost position trying to advance in numerous fights.
At the same time, I don’t want to downplay the persistent nature of his game because it is a difficult style to deal with.
But he’ll probably get shut out by better defensive wrestlers in the UFC.
Lastly, he ultimately dropped his fight on TUF in the quarter finals where he fought a black belt in Ofli and was out grappled for the majority of minutes there which gives some proof of concept to what was just referenced.
Overall, Fletcher’s ground success going forward will be entirely matchup dependent.
How it plays out: Despite some of my criticisms of Fletcher’s technical prowess, he has the large bulk of ground upside in this fight. What’s kind of interesting though is that we haven’t seen Ramaska threatened much from a submission perspective so I’m unsure of how he deals with dominant positions should Fletcher get there. But as noted, guys have consistently worked up under Fletcher in the past and Ramaska has shown he can work up from bottom despite being a poor defensive wrestler. So, the question is whether Fletcher can find a submission or continue some of his wet blanket ways to continually win minutes over Ramaska.
I don’t rate either of these guys very highly, but the matchup dynamic makes the fight pretty intriguing, coupled with a few other considerations. First, you have both guys coming off injuries on the show with the fractured face of Ramaska and a broken leg bone from Fletcher. Secondly, Ramaska is a natural 145er and Fletcher is a natural 135er. In these types of spots, I’ll traditionally lean to the grappler, which is Fletcher, but I also think the size of Ramaska and danger factor he brings on the feet throws an interesting wrench into the fight. I’m going to take Ramaska for the upset to either put Fletcher down or win a tight decision based on damage.
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On DraftKings, this is one of my favorite fights on the slate and definitely my favorite fight of the three TUF matchups.
It feels completely binary to me. Ramaska is an insanely aggressive, come-forward fighter with no defense. Fletcher is a wrestler/grappler with limited striking. Whoever gets their way should dominate.
Ultimately, I land on the opposite side of Luke and will go with the grappler. I’d be lying if I said I was super confident, but what I am confident in is that Ramaska will be exposed on the mat. Maybe Fletcher can’t hold him down for 15 minutes but Ramaska has serious problems as a grappler, so I tend to lean toward the fighter who can wrestle.
Fletcher is 8.4k and a very strong target because of it. He will need lots of grappling to win, and potentially a finish. ITD odds aren’t out yet but the fight is -130 to go Under 1.5 rounds, so he will project well.
There is plenty of risk here to Fletcher outright losing, but I love his theoretical upside in this matchup against an aggro striker, and I’d like to be overweight.
Ramaska is priced at 7.8k and I think he’s more likely to win by TKO if he wins at all.
I’m not saying he won’t slow down here or in some future matchup, but much of what I’ve seen from him has been absolute wars. Fletcher will have to take him down or fight back, and I doubt he can withstand the pressure.
I’m expecting Ramaska to have a decent ITD line for the price and I think he has pretty clear KO upside in the matchup. Targeting him mildly or moderately makes sense, depending on your stance of the matchup. Or just targeting the fight as a whole above the market makes a lot of sense to me.
I am somewhat nervous about being high on the Ramaska side just due because I think he lacks technique and is a good longterm fade, but again this is a binary matchup. He’s priced well enough and has early KO equity, so he’s among my favorite dog targets for that reason even though I’m expecting him to lose.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fletcher by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Wang Cong vs. Victoria Leonardo
Fight Odds: Cong -1212, Leonardo +732
Odds to Finish: -205
DraftKings Salaries: Cong 9.6k, Leonardo 6.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a blue chip Chinese prospect in Wang Cong set to make her UFC debut this weekend against Victoria Leonardo.
Wang is 32 years old and 5-0 professionally. She comes from a deep boxing and kickboxing pedigree and actually has a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko in 2015. Kickboxing is her base and what she thrives at, and she has generally won her MMA fights by outstriking her opponents.
Her striking does look good. She has a good jab and good low kicks and seems very defensively sound. She manages range well and can fight three rounds in her sleep.
She doesn’t look to have a ton of power though. I generally think if she wins by knockout, it will moreso come from accumulation or a skill discrepancy more than anything. She doesn’t look like a girl who will just knock opponents dead with one shot.
Cong did fight Wu Yanan, a former low tier UFC fighter, early this year and dominated her. She just outstruck her for 15 minutes. Yanan isn’t good, but Cong absolutely dominated her and it was a good performance for the test at hand. I do think Cong is UFC level and will win striking fights in the UFC.
Cong also just fought on the Road to UFC and won by submission. She isn’t tested much as a grappler, but she actually looks pretty physical and understands basic positioning on the mat, especially defensively. She also shut down the grappling of Wu Yanan.
I am not all sold by Cong as a grappler, but I do think she will easily stifle low tier grapplers in the UFC. As she gets steps up in competition, I will be keeping an eye on her grappling though.
Overall, Cong looks like a decent prospect. She can strike for 15 minutes and is very technical as a kickboxer, and she looks to understand basic grappling techniques enough to keep fights standing. I am looking forward to seeing her fight in the UFC.
Cong also got a softball matchup in her debut against Victoria Leonardo who is not very good. Leonardo is limited athletically as well and is just not a very good fighter. To be fair to her, three of her fights in the UFC have come against Fiorot, Gatto, and Natalia Silva, three fighters who are good. So I will give her a pass for those fights.
On the feet, Leonardo is just not very good or fast. She is pretty tough though and will try hard. I think that is the best thing that I can say about her. I can’t really expect her to win rounds on the feet at this level. It will have to come against very bad fighters.
Leonardo is best as a grappler. She is capable of taking down bad fighters and having success on the mat. In her Contender Series fight, she was getting outstruck but stayed tough and ended up landing three takedowns and got a finish on the mat. She showed good ground-and-pound in that fight.
She also landed two takedowns against Mandy Bohm in a decision win. I do think Leonardo can have grappling success against weak grapplers.
I don’t think Leonardo’s grappling is enough to outgrapple Cong though. Cong is untested so maybe it is. However, Cong looks pretty physical and has enough basic understanding to avoid takedowns and stay standing. So I am leaning towards Leonardo not having much grappling success in this matchup.
On the feet, Cong should be at a huge advantage and may finish Leonardo via accumulation. I just don’t think Leonardo will be able to handle the range control and speed of Cong. Cong should get off to a big lead and may even finish this fight mid way or for a late stoppage.
So I have to go with Cong here. She is a much more skilled and experienced striker, and is just so much more athletic than Leonardo.
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On DraftKings, Cong is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k and a massive favorite north of -1200 to win.
While I’m not certain it’s justified, Leonardo is unathletic, slow, and limited. Cong at least has a strong pedigree on paper, she should win the fight cleanly if she can avoid being held down on her back.
I always question defensive grappling from newcomers but from the few instances I’ve seen from Cong, I’m pretty optimistic she can control the fight. Can she pay off 9.6k is another question.
Similar to Morales, I think you’ll need an earlyish knockout for Cong to reach a ceiling. Landing 100 significant strikes over three rounds is not going to get the job done. And I don’t expect Cong to wrestle much or at all.
Cong is -215 to win ITD which says a lot more about Leonardo than Cong, considering Cong doesn’t carry a ton of power. That line is also up significantly from -165 in the past day or so. But there’s a pretty decent chance she can beat Leonardo up pretty good and find a mid-round stoppage due to accumulation. I think that’s the outcome I lean toward as well.
She still doesn’t have to be prioritized at this price tag though. You may not have the salary to pay off and obviously there are ways for Cong to bust on DK even with a great real life performance. Or Morales could outscore her, or Reese or Shahbazyan.
But I don’t mind Cong and I do see reasonable KO upside. I’m a little nervous about getting carried away given the bust risk in an extended fight, but it’s very possibly a mismatch and I’ll likely end up buying a fair amount of Cong when I can pay up.
Leonardo at 6.6k has tremendous upside given her grappling style, and she’ll carry leverage against Cong, but I still don’t think it’s enough to warrant real exposure.
You’re essentially just hoping that the market is completely wrong on Cong and that she can’t defend takedowns for her life. If that happens, then Leonardo can win. Perhaps it’s worth a very small percentage in large fields with a large portfolio, but I think it’s pretty acceptable to fade her outright as well.
That’s the route I’ll go with a more limited portfolio. Just so much more win equity in dogs elsewhere on the slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cong by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)