UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 (7/19/25)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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MAIN CARD

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier

Fight Odds: Holloway -125, Poirier +107

Odds to end ITD: +115

DraftKings Salaries: Holloway 8.2k, Poirier 8k

Weight Class: 155

The BMF title is back on the line as the UFC bids farewell to Dustin Poirier, a surefire Hall-of-Famer who will end his professional MMA career with a trilogy matchup against fellow legend Max Holloway.

Poirier has already beaten Holloway twice, but the first matchup came back in 2012 when Holloway made his debut in the UFC.

More recently, the pair squared off in 2019 when Holloway decided to move up a weight class, and Poirier was able to get past him once again, landing the harder shots over a very high-paced 25 minutes.

Six years later, the question will be asked of what is left of both men?

Both have given their lives to the sport. Both have a laundry list of incredible performances. Both are showing their ages to a degree as well.

Despite both coming off championship losses in their respective divisions, both have shown chinks in their armour in recent fights. Poirier was knocked out with a head kick by Justin Gaethje a couple years ago. Max Holloway was knocked out for the first time ever by Ilia Topuria in 2024.

I personally don’t think these recent setbacks are going to have much effect on how this trilogy fight plays out, but I do think there are more questions from both sides than we’ve seen before.

Excluding the physical side, most fighters do not win their retirement bout, and that is just a fact. I believe the stat is that 90 percent of UFC fighters end their career with a loss, but in terms of fighters declaring retirement before a bout, that percentage isn’t very strong either.

I don’t believe Poirier fits into the typical build of a retirement bout, as he’s only 36 years old and still has a lot of the goods. But it’s still somewhat of a concern as his focus is now beyond the sport, and that aspect does throw a wrench into the analysis.

On one hand, six years between matchups is certainly enough time for Poirier to wear down and give Holloway more advantages in this bout than he had last time. On the other hand, this is still Poirier’s division, he’s still a strong boxer who can throw punches at a high rate, and he still likely hits harder.

I think there’s a very reasonable chance this fight plays out quite similarly to the last one. Holloway has a locked in floor of volume as one of the fastest paced fighters in the history of the sport. But he’s not a one-shot killer.

If Poirier is physically able to stand in there and fire back, Poirier is going to have success. He went toe-to-toe with Holloway last time, landing 178 sig. strikes to Holloway’s 181, and 153 head strikes to Holloway’s 141. The discrepancy in power was enough for Poirier to land the occasional harder shots, and swing the majority of rounds in his favor though.

Yes, Poirier might not be as fast as he was six years ago. Maybe he’s less durable. But the same can be said for Holloway who is coming off a knockout loss too.

On Holloway’s side, we’ve at least seen him climb up to 155 pounds and have success, as he murdered Justin Gaethje in one of the best finishes in UFC history back in 2024. Holloway lands 7.16 sig. strikes per minute and I thought fought Poirier very well in the last matchup. I thought the fight was much closer than others make it seem, and the fact that Holloway kept up with Poirier on totals and head strikes is worth noting once again.

There is no doubt in my mind these two are going to war. Holloway is going to pressure, force a pace, and throw a ton of volume like he always does. Poirier is going to stand his ground and fire back. It’s difficult for me to say exactly what happens from that point on.

But my best guess is, this fight is highly competitive. I trust Holloway more on a volume spectrum, and I think he has a bit more pullaway ability in that sense. Poirier should physically be able to keep up with him though and I still think he lands the harder shots. I’d expect both men to have success in that sense, and both are firmly capable of winning rounds.

Given recent KO losses by both, it’s possible someone gets hurt. We saw what happened to Volkanovski after his first KO loss, so that definitely makes me nervous from Holloway’s perspective. I could see Poirier hurting him.

Conversely, Poirier is a bit more likely to get hurt as well. I won’t predict a knockout from either side but I think it just adds a little bit more variance to the table.

I don’t see a reason to line this fight anything other than ultra competitive, which it currently is with Holloway sitting as a slight -135 favorite. I suppose I will lean very slightly toward the Holloway side, but I think the most likely outcome is a competitive decision.

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On DraftKings, the last time these two fought, we saw Poirier score 113 points in a five-round decision, while Holloway scored 78 in a loss.

I’m sure I will get asked this a ton, but no, I am not stacking this fight in tournaments. Not on a 14-fight slate. However, it does feel like an easy stack in cash games at first glance.

From a tournament standpoint, I’m likely to be very heavy on this fight as a whole, and the best recommendation I can give is to split your exposure. I don’t necessarily believe the edge is going to be found in this main event, unfortunately. 

With only one championship fight on the slate, the winner here is going to project among the top of the board this week, and I’d like exposure to whoever that is.

Holloway has more upside of the two, we’ve seen it in his smash volume performances, and of the two, I feel slightly safer with Holloway. Even in a loss, we may get 80 points from him.

Poirier I feel less safe with, especially given the retirement situation, but he’s beaten Holloway twice and is lined as a near pick’em here. I don’t think fading Poirier solely based on the retirement angle is a smart strategy, and I’d expect him to clear 100 points and contend for the optimal in any kind of win again.

For what it’s worth, Poirier actually has the better ITD line here too at +240 vs. the +315 of Holloway. 

The worst case scenario would be if one side wins a close decision that isn’t as high paced as the last time. For example, if Holloway only lands 140 sig. strikes, he’d score 85-90 in a win which could in theory miss the optimal at 8.2k.

If you want to factor that in a bit, with a large portfolio, I think that’s OK as fading the main event will be unique. But I’d guess if anything, the winner might be likely to land as much or more strikes than the last time. 

Holloway at 8.2k will likely be more popular than Poirier at 8k this week, despite the last result, but I’d expect both will be 40+ percent owned and both will be essential chalk. If either side was projected far less owned, the lesser side would be preferred in tournaments from a strategy perspective.

I will likely lean Holloway myself, with heavy exposure to the fight as a whole, but I wouldn’t lean too far in his direction and I’m happy to find the edges elsewhere on the slate.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holloway by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

Fight Odds: Kopylov -234, Costa +196

Odds to end ITD: +130

DraftKings Salaries: Kopylov 8.9k, Costa 7.3k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a fun striking matchup here between UFC veterans Roman Kopylov and Paulo Costa.

I have been enjoying watching the success of Roman Kopylov. He was on quite a roll before losing to Anthony Hernandez in his last loss. He battered Punahele Soriano on the feet and then eventually knocked him out a few fights ago. He also kicked Claudio Ribeiro’s head off into the outer realms of the universe. He recently outgrappled Cesar Almeida to a clean decision win. Most recently, he knocked Chris Curtis out in a really fun scrap.

Kopylov may be from Russia, but he is actually a striker. He fights out of the Southpaw stance, has a good body kick, crisp boxing, and speed. Before his UFC debut, I actually thought he looked very solid on the regionals where he became the Fight Night Global middleweight champion. FNG is a solid Russian organization with promising talent. Kopylov just dominated the competition with his striking.

Kopylov lands 4.96 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.86 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent. He is simply a solid striker and he has knockout power. He also has great striking cardio and was doing five rounds in FNG in his sleep. I think he can compete with most fighters on the feet in this division.

The issue with Kopylov is his grappling. He was beaten on the mat by Karl Roberson and Albert Duraev. He actually has good first layer takedown defense and defends takedowns at a solid 87 percent. 

The issue is that once Kopylov is actually grounded, he can allow dominant positions like mount and can’t really get up. He also gets tired if grappled badly as well. Good grapplers can definitely take advantage of him which we saw Hernandez do in Kopylov’s last loss. Kopylov is tough to actually get down though. I know Kopylov outwrestled Almeida, but I don’t really expect Kopylov to heavily wrestle in most matchups.

I don’t think Kopylov will have to worry about his defensive grappling in this matchup against Paulo Costa though.

Costa is basically a brute striker. He will come forward and look to land powerful strikes, and will also work the body pretty well. He is dangerous and I do like his aggression. He lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.56 in return. He also has pretty good cardio and went to war with Marvin Vettori for five brutal rounds a few years back.

I don’t like Costa’s defense though. He absorbs more than 6 significant strikes per minute and only defends strikes at 49 percent. He is just there to be hit, and I don’t consider him a strong technical striker. He also just gets jabbed a lot as well.

Costa doesn’t really wrestle much and only lands 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has good defensive wrestling though ,and defends takedowns at 80 percent and has good scrambling ability.

Costa has just never actually beaten many great fighters. He beat the ghost of Luke Rockhold, an old Yoel Romero, Uriah Hall, and a fat Johny Hendricks. Anytime he has had a step up in competition, he has lost. Strickland, Whittaker, Vettori, and Adesanya all beat him pretty clearly. 

As far as this matchup goes, I think these guys will strike as neither grapple much and both have good TDD rates.

I think this will be pretty entertaining and competitive on the feet. Both guys are aggressive strikers and land a lot of output in general. Both guys are also questionable defensively and surely are capable of landing on one another. I also consider both guys tough and think it will probably go to the cards. However, random variance is always in play when you have two dangerous guys and a lot of strikes landing.

I think Kopylov is more technical and diverse as a striker. Costa has also never really beaten an actual good striker before. Costa also just hasn’t been winning fights either. His only win in the last six years was the ghost of Luke Rockhold which is kind of crazy to think about.

Kopylov has consistently been winning fights and his striking cardio looked good in his most recent win against Chris Curtis. My guess is these guys will strike competitively but I just trust Kopylov’s form and consistency more. So I think Kopylov will probably get the better of the exchanges as the fight goes.

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On DraftKings, this is a tricky one because it should be high paced, and entertaining, and both fighters have reached in the majority of their wins.

Kopylov is priced at 8.9k and coming off a 114-point KO over Chris Curtis, and he won a 104 point wrestling based decision in the fight prior. While a knockout and some volume are on the table here, the most likely outcome for Kopylov in a win is probably 100-120 sig. strikes and a decision, which would only score 70-80 DK points.

He won’t be landing 5+ takedowns, or any takedowns most likely. And even 120 significant strikes only equates to 78 DK points. So the knockout really has to come.

Costa is inconsistent, and he’s been TKOd before, by Adesanya in 2020. I actually could see Kopylov hurting him with kicks, and tagging the body. Kopylov is +220 to win ITD.

The problem is that Costa is still tough. He’s gone five rounds multiple times since the Adesanya loss. I’m not really sure I want to bet on a KO from Kopylov, and I think there’s plenty of bust risk here.

I don’t think Kopylov will be overwhelmingly popular but box scores do drive ownership to a degree, and Kopylov’s box scores look really strong on paper. I think it’s a bit of a trap in this spot though, and I’m more likely to come in light on Kopylov and fade the early KO scenario. With that said, if you find yourself with 9.3kish or less remaining in salary, Kopylov will be in consideration.

Costa at 7.3k is viable in the sense that this could be a banger of a fight. He throws with volume and lots of power, so there is some semblance of a floor and ceiling.

I do think Kopylov is a better technical striker than Costa. He’s more consistent. Costa also hasn’t fought in a year and has only won one fight in his last six years, so frankly, I don’t trust him in this spot and I think Kopylov wins.

So I’m not personally inclined to bet much on Costa, despite the price tag. He’s got some secondary viability but he’s only +475 to win ITD, so it’s tough to be too excited.

I don’t hate Costa for the price. He is a dangerous guy and the fight could be competitive. Many of the fighters in this price range fall into a similar tier, so mixing him in a bit makes sense. I certainly do not view him as a stand out though, and I would only aim to be near the field or a bit underweight.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kopylov by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Fight Odds: Holland -582, Rodriguez +441

Odds to end ITD: -210

DraftKings Salaries: Holland 9.3k, Rodriguez 6.9k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Originally set to fight in 2022 before a fight week shuffle that infamously matched up Kevin Holland and Khamzat Chimaev, Holland and Daniel Rodriguez will finally square off three years later.

Holland thrives as a striker. He lands 4.24 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.11 in return. Those are solid metrics. In pure striking fights, Holland is quite good.

Holland is very skilled and dangerous as a striker. He has crisp kicks and straight punches, and is very relaxed and always seems to find his target. He also stands at 6’3” with an 81” reach which was a big frame for a welterweight. So he is huge at welterweight and will have a size and reach advantage over Rodriguez.

Holland’s issue has always been his defensive grappling, and more specifically, his wrestling. He defends takedowns at 55 percent and can be held on his back. Holland is actually a decent submission grappler. Once he is taken down, he can retain guard and isn’t in a ton of danger. His issue is simply being controlled.

I will say that I do think Holland’s defensive wrestling is better at welterweight. At middleweight, I think many of the guys who outgrappled him were just much bigger than him, which was a struggle for Holland. At welterweight, Holland is not outmatched physically and tends to defensively grapple better. Don’t get me wrong, a good welterweight grappler will have success against Holland. However, I do think it will be less of an issue for Holland at welterweight in general.

Holland will be taking on the always tough Daniel Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker and more specifically a boxer. Rodriguez lands a ridiculous 7.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.39 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. 

I like Rodriguez. He keeps up a ridiculous pace and doesn’t seem to really slow down either. Although he is in chaotic fights, he definitely has some skills as a boxer and it isn’t all just cardio and output in his game. I do think he has regressed a bit though, and I don’t think he looks quite as sharp as he did a few years ago. I still think he is a tough striking out though.

Rodriguez also seems like a tough guy and has only been knocked out once in his career.

Rodriguez isn’t much of a grappler offensively. He lands 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. I actually do think he is okay and can take advantage of weak grapplers. However, I don’t expect wrestling to be a realistic path to victory for him against good fighters at welterweight. Rodriguez is decent defensively as a grappler and defends takedowns at 57 percent. Good grapplers can have success against him.

As far as this matchup goes, I think this line is a little wide. I just expect a somewhat competitive striking fight. Both guys are pretty dangerous so I suppose either guy could get hurt. It is hard to predict a random knockdown or knockout here though. Both guys are durable, but I do think Holland is more likely to hurt Rodriguez than vice versa.

As far as the round winning goes, I mildly lean Holland just because he has a big reach and height advantage. I also think his kicking game and strike diversity may be an X factor. I also just think Rodriguez is not quite as sharp as he used to be either, so regression could be a key factor here.

This is still a competitive fight though, and I do think Rodriguez is a fine striker who can stay competitive. I quite respect Rodriguez, and I think he will fight hard and that both guys will have their moments. Overall, Holland is the pick though with his size, youth, etc.

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On DraftKings, Holland is priced up to 9.3k and I’m not super interested in him.

I’ve targeted him some over the years but the main lesson I’ve learned is that he doesn’t really carry an elite ceiling. He can certainly win ITD, but his finishes in recent years have scored 92, 94, 95, 82, 88, 101, 97, 113, 98, 131, and 133.

So in 11 UFC finishes, Holland has actually only reached 100 points three times. Those 130+ scores came back in 2018 and 2020, via a quick win bonus and five takedowns.

I guess the primary issue is that he’s often winning past the first round. He’s not an elite power striker and so a lot of his wins come with some attrition. I do think he can reach 100 points still but I don’t necessarily trust him to win in round one, and an extended fight historically has meant less than 100 points.

At this price point, we need Holland to smash. Is he capable of it? Maybe. But Rodriguez has only been finished once early and that came against Ian Garry in 2023.

With that said, he actually holds a -200 ITD line here which is strong, and he’s getting bet up massively to a near -600 favorite. It still doesn’t stack up to the other targets from an ITD standpoint but it does show finishing prowess.

Idk. Personally I think it makes sense to prioritize Ferreira, Dulatov and Gautier in a vacuum. I like Crute better too. I only view Holland as a secondary target in that sense and he just isn’t a priority for me.

If you have extra faith he’ll knock out Rodriguez quickly then fine, you can play a lot of him. I also will consider him more when I have 9.4k or 9.3k remaining, But I think there’s a better chance of this being a competitive decision than Holland wiping out Rodriguez in a couple of minutes.

The lower owned Holland is, the better target he is from a uniqueness sense, but he’s only a mix in for me and I’ll probably end up underweight on this slate.

Rodriguez at 6.9k does feel too cheap.

I still don’t love him in the matchup as he doesn’t hold a lot of grappling equity, and he’s outsized a bit.

However, Rodriguez has landed 120+ sig. strikes five different times in three-round decisions. That is plenty enough to win a decision against Holland. I’m not saying that’s how it will shake out, but there are definitely paths for this fight to be competitive.

If you are punting below 7k, I think Rodriguez has the best chance to win of any fighter. I do like the finishing upside of others a bit more though, and Rodriguez is only +835 to win ITD.

I don’t think he has a tremendous ceiling so I’m not inclined to roster much Rodriguez this week. He’s still a huge dog. But for salary savings, he’s an OK low end target and there are paths where he could win a close, striking based decision.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holland by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Dan Ige vs. Patricio Freire

Fight Odds: Ige -211, Freire +178

Odds to end ITD: +195

DraftKings Salaries: Ige 8.6k, Freire 7.6k

Weight Class: 145

After a disappointing UFC debut, former Bellator champion Patricio “Pitbull” Freire will step back into the Octagon Saturday against hard-hitting Dan Ige.

Honestly, I didn’t have the highest of expectations for Freire in his UFC debut, where he competed against the much younger, longer and more active Yair Rodriguez.

Rodriguez mostly dominated the fight, outlanding Freire 70-17 and nearly finished him at one point as well.

It’s not that Pitbull is a bad fighter or has nothing left in the tank, but he is now 38 years old, and he’s accrued 44 professional fights to his name. It seems pretty clear to me that his best days are behind him and fighting the best of the UFC’s featherweight division will give him problems.

With that said, Pitbull is a pretty good fighter and he’s quite well-rounded. He’s a former featherweight and lightweight champion. He’s a scrappy boxer with some power, and he’s a fine wrestler and top-control grappler.

He’s earned 12 wins by knockout and another 12 by submission, and he’s also gone the five round distance on more than one occasion. He has quality wins over Emmanuel Sanchez, AJ McKee and Juan Archuleta. He also knocked out Michael Chandler in about a minute in 2019.

Outside of the UFC, Pitbull recently lost a five-round decision to Sergio Pettis for the bantamweight championship, though Pettis is truly one of the best in the world. He was knocked out by Chihiro Suzuki in the RIZIN Superfighter, and most recently, Pitbull knocked out ex-UFC fighter Jeremy Kennedy in March of 2024.

I think my biggest gripe right now with Pitbull is that he’s too low volume on the feet for his size. He is small for the featherweight division, standing only 5’6”, and he will be clearly outsized by many opponents. Pitbull is still a solid boxer who likes to counter but he just doesn’t throw enough and I think that will be an issue moving forward.

Additionally, the age, and wear and tear factor comes into play. He’s a super durable guy, having only been knocked out twice, but he’s been getting hurt more often recently and I don’t necessarily think that aspect will improve.

Pitbull is a good wrestler and top player as well but he’s just not super urgent there either. I don’t think he’s a dominating force on the mat but it’s still a method for him to change up the game.

Overall, Pitbull is a fun addition to the featherweight roster and someone who can definitely win fights at the UFC level. But it’s likely a bit too late in the game to see him actually climb the ladder.

His next matchup will come against Dan Ige, who fortunately, is of a similar size and style to Pitbull.

Ige is a somewhat small, somewhat low-volume boxer with knockout power, and he’s been very reliant on those knockouts in recent years.

Ige currently lands 3.67 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.55 per minute, and his durability has largely been insane. Ige has eight knockdowns in his UFC career, most of them ending in TKO victories, and he’s only been knocked down twice, both of which he survived.

The problem is on the volume side though as Ige isn’t capable of reaching great numbers. He’s topped out at 46, 42, 18, 88 and 42 in recent decisions. He needs damage to separate, which I don’t love.

Additionally, Ige is a very solid wrestler and grappler, and it was something he relied upon in his early days. Now, he really never wrestles, and has only landed two total takedowns in his last eight fights.

He’s not the strongest defensive grappler with a 58 percent takedown rate, but he’s a BJJ black belt and can generally survive on the mat just fine.

This is a near mirror-match in my opinion, and I think we’re very likely to see a slower-paced, lower-volume affair with the difference being that Ige is younger, more powerful and more durable than Freire.

From a pure offensive production standpoint, I don’t see a reason for Ige to be a big favorite. He never separates on rounds, and Freire may even be the better boxer than him outright.

But Freire is low volume too, and Ige is ultra durable. It seems likely that whoever lands the occasional bigger shot will be the one to win, and in that, it’s fair to favor Ige moderately.

Freire is also likely the better grappler and wrestler, and that may be a part of his game plan here. He did land one takedown on Rodriguez in four attempts, and I think wrestling would be helpful for him against Ige as a way to not be in range of getting bombed on.

Even if Freire does take Ige down though, I’m not sure he does much with it. Ige will scramble up well and he’s tough to submit. One or two takedowns from Freire is definitely possible though, and if he can take the back, he might be able to swing a couple of rounds on control.

I do worry that Freire’s durability will fall off a cliff. He was KOd recently outside of the UFC after a long, durable career, and Rodriguez just dropped him. Ige hits really hard, and I think a KD is in play here.

I guess I will lean toward Ige for the obvious damage/durability edges, but the fight projects to be super competitive until those big shots land.

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On DraftKings, Ige seems ultra boom or bust at 8.6k and I’m not totally sure what I want to do with him.

Typically, these are not the spots I love to play, as Ige won’t be producing much volume before the finish. He just won by KO in round three but only scored 65 points, and if the fight extends, there is no guarantee of volume.

He’s going to have a real shot to win by KO here with a +250 ITD line, but I’m still pretty hesitant to play him. The fight as a whole is -275 to go Over 2.5 rounds, which is really scary. If Ige projects to be popular, I’d probably lean toward the underweight side as anything other than a quick KO may not result in a 100 point score.

Ige does have early KO potential though, so if he happens to hurt Pitbull quickly, he can exceed value and contend for the optimal. He does fit in well at 8.6k and obviously there are durability concerns on the Pitbull side.

I view Ige as a fine secondary target. It makes some sense to have exposure here for KO equity but I think there’s a really weak floor and I would be fine to take some risk and pivot away, hoping the fight extends as expected.

Freire seems like a poor play on paper to me at 7.6k.

Not only is he a low production offensive fighter, but Ige is so durable. I don’t think Freire has a strong chance to win by KO and that’s baked into a weak +675 ITD line.

He might have a grappling path which is the only thing to give me pause. I suppose if he wins, takedowns and control could be involved and he could exceed value in that way. I still wouldn’t expect major takedown numbers and Ige is still a black belt, so that’s additional context to the poor ITD line.

I won’t rule out Freire. He falls into a secondary tier with a handful of other underdog targets who have mild win equity but questionable ceilings. Mixing him in is OK. But I generally view him as a low-end secondary target who I won’t aim for much exposure to this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ige by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber

Fight Odds: Zellhuber -554, Johnson +423

Odds to end ITD: -155

DraftKings Salaries: Zellhuber 9.5k, Johnson 6.7k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a clash of generations here as young gun Daniel Zellhuber will be taking on UFC veteran Michael Johnson. There is a 13 year age gap here as Zellhuber is 26 and Johnson is 39.

Zellhuber is decent and is almost exclusively a striker. Zellhuber lands 6.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.02. He is long at 6’1” and has a lot of long range tools like front kicks up the middle and straight punches. I consider him pretty solid as a striker with decent volume and cardio, but I am not completely sold on him honestly. 

Zellhuber has looked decent in some fights. I also thought his most recent loss was a really fun scrap against Esteban Ribovics where he was outlanded 156-121 in significant strikes. He can fight at a hard pace.

However, Zellhuber kind of laid an egg vs Trey Ogden and was outstruck at range 71-52 which is honestly embarrassing as Ogden isn’t a good striker at all. Maybe that fight was just an outlier though as Zellhuber has been pretty consistent in other fights. I do question his striking defense though as he is hittable.

Zellhuber rarely grapples. He lands 0.18 takedowns per 15 minutes.

I still think Zellhuber is a bit untested as a defensive wrestler vs anyone good but he is defending takedowns at 94 percent which is good.

Zellhuber will be taking on Michael Johnson. I felt bad for Michael Johnson in his last loss. He was actually performing well and outstriking Carlos Diego Ferreira. He then got knocked into the outer realms of the solar system. It was tough to watch. However, Johnson followed up that loss with a nice decision win against Darrius Flowers and then a knockout win against Othman Azaitar.

Michael Johnson is a sprawl and brawler. We know what he is going to do. He is generally going to try to keep the fight on the feet and look to outbox his opponents.

I consider Johnson a competent striker. He lands 4.23 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.80 in return. He defends strikes at 58 percent.

Johnson is mostly a boxer and uses his hands. He has a good jab and 1-2 straight punch combination. He will also throw some good hooks in the pocket as well. He has fast hands and has some power as well. He is also a southpaw and will land a nice inside low kick vs orthodox fighters. Johnson still looks fast even though he is 39 years old and generally carries a speed advantage over his opponents.

Johnson doesn’t look to wrestle much and only attempts about one takedown per fight. Coming from a wrestling background, he actually has a good double leg but we rarely see it as he is more interested in striking. We saw him land some takedowns against Flowers but I really only think he will look to outwrestle very weak grapplers.

Johnson defends takedowns at 81 percent. I actually think he has very good first layer takedown defense especially in open space. His problem is when people get him vs the cage or when people chain various takedown attempts together.

We have seen Johnson defend takedowns quite well in some fights and not so well in others because of this. I also just don’t like him once he is actually grounded. He is good at staying upright because he has good TDD so we don’t see him grounded much. However, he is a bit clueless as a submission grappler and not skilled on the mat.

I generally consider MJ durable, but he is older now and suffering a devastating KO like he did against CDF makes me a bit nervous for him going forward. Still though, he has only been knocked out three times in 30 UFC fights and they came against MASSIVE hitters and good fighters in Justin Gaethje, Josh Emmett, and CDF. 

As far as this matchup goes, I think the line is wide with Zellhuber being -600. Sure, I think Zellhuber is the rightful favorite as he is the bigger and younger fighter. Perhaps Johnson just shows up looking regressed given his age and Zellhuber just wins clean. I think that is honestly a very possible outcome.

However, Johnson hasn’t really looked bad on the feet ever. Johnson still looks to be pretty fast and tough. Johnson also has some power and Zellhuber is hittable. So would I be that shocked if Johnson used his speed and power and cracked Zellhuber occasionally or just stayed competitive in a couple of rounds? Not really. I think this line should be closer.

My guess is we get a somewhat competitive striking fight. I think both guys can hurt one another too. I still think picking Zellhuber is the right call given his youth and size. However, I think this fight will probably be more competitive than the line indicates.

—

On DraftKings, Zellhuber just feels too expensive at 9.5k.

I’m not opposed to playing him, but he’s only scored 78, 85 and 76 points in his three UFC wins. He just went to war with Ribovics and had he won that fight, with a knockdown and 121 sig. strikes, he still would have only scored 89 DK points.

At 9.5k, on a 14-fight slate, in a price range with Ferreira, Dulatov and Gautier, it’s difficult for me to picture Zellhuber being a standout.

He won’t really have much or any grappling equity, and he’s not really a knockout artist. However, he can produce volume and Johnson can be hurt. So a volume-based KO is still possible.

If Zellhuber can land 80 sig. strikes and win by RD 2 KO, then yeah, he can compete in this range. That would still only be 100ish DK points. 

The problem is he’s only -135 to win ITD, which is honestly better than what I’d line it at. Johnson has fought 30 times in the UFC and he’s been knocked down three times. It just feels like a bigger risk at this price tag than what I’d like.

My guess is that Zellhuber will be contrarian though. Surely, ownership will flood onto the other options, and I could see Zellhuber landing in the mid or low teens for ownership. If that’s the case, sure, he’s viable for the unique factor.

Personally, I’d just rather play those other options as I think they have much more early finishing upside, and I’ll look to be different elsewhere.

Johnson at 6.7k feels a bit underpriced.

He’s a good boxer with fast hands, some power, and a wrestling background. He doesn’t really put it all together often and I don’t care too much about his recent KO win. But he’s still talented and could fight competitively.

Zellhuber can be taken down and can yield lots of strikes too, so there’s some upside with Johnson. He’s just not a particularly high volume fighter himself and doesn’t wrestle much.

Most likely, I do just think Zellhuber runs away with this on volume. As a big dog, with a +800 ITD line, I’m not inclined to play much Johnson on this slate.

If you need to punt below 7k then I think Johnson has some viability, and he’s definitely one of the most talented fighters of this bottom grouping. I just don’t love the matchup and he still feels like a dart throw at best. Worth a sprinkle perhaps in larger fields but nothing more.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zellhuber by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

UNDERCARD

Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Fight Odds: Oliveira -148, Phillips +126

Odds to end ITD: +130

DraftKings Salaries: Oliveira 8.5k, Phillips 7.7k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I am excited for this bout here between Kyler Phillips and Vinicius Oliveira. Oliveira always brings it, and I think we are in store for some fun action this weekend. This is one of the best fights on the card.

Phillips is a good fighter. He is well-rounded and athletic. He lands 5.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.47 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. I like Phillips’ striking. He is fast twitched and serviceable. He is just really fast and athletic. His speed helps him a lot. You saw that in his last win against Munhoz where he was just too dynamic and speedy at range for Munhoz.

Phillips is also a good grappler. Phillips lands 2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about five takedowns per fight. I really like the timing of Phillips’ level change / double leg as well. It is quite good.

Phillips holds a BJJ black belt and is quite good at passing in top position, landing ground-and-pound, taking the back, and threatening with submissions. He can really take advantage of weak grapplers. He also has solid takedown defense at 75 percent. 

The one fair criticism of Phillips is his cardio. It is not awful, but it isn’t a strength either. He gassed out vs Paiva and lost back in the day. It wasn’t egregious as he mostly tired chasing a finish when he had Paiva hurt early. His gas tank has generally held up since. However, you have seen him labor a bit in round three mostly against Rob Font and Raoni Barcelos.

Overall, Phillips is just a talented fighter with no major holes other than being a bit too flashy and overexerting himself at times. 

Phillips will be taking on Vinicius Oliveira who is now 22-3 professionally. Oliveira is also now 3-0 in the UFC. He won his UFC debut against Bernardo Sopaj. He was losing the early portions of that fight but eventually Sopaj gassed out and Oliveira landed one of the best knockouts of the year in round three via flying knee. Oliveira then won a decision against Ricky Simon by minimizing the grappling of Simon and outstriking him to a decision win. 

Oliveira then recently defeated Said Nurmagomedov. Oliveira lost the early portions of the fight but then both fighters got extremely tired, and Said was more tired and allowed Oliveira to win the last two rounds.

I do think Oliveira is a solid fighter. Oliveira is an aggressive Thai striker. 16 of his 22 wins have come by knockout. He is very aggressive, and will throw power shots for 15 minutes and seems to be able to fight for a hard three rounds. I still thought Oliveira actually looked fatigued against Said too though. It was a weird fight where Said just fatigued more. Said couldn’t move after like six minutes. 

Apparently Oliveira had a rib injury before that Said fight and he said he had trouble breathing. I actually believe that to a degree as his cardio looked worse than usual.

Oliveira likes to come forward on the feet. He will throw hard calf kicks and wild hooks from weird angles. He is pretty unorthodox. He is also just huge and athletic which makes it difficult for his opponents. He will also mix in head kicks and a stabbing front kick to the body. I think he is pretty dangerous and I do like his aggression. 

He outlanded Sopaj at range 49-21 although most of those strikes came when Sopaj was gassed and defenseless. He also outlanded Simon at range 94-40 although Simon looked shot and was never a good striker. I still do respect Oliveira as a striker though, especially his offense. 

Oliveira’s defense worries me though. He really hasn’t fought a good striker yet and he has actually been knocked out on the regionals multiple times already. He is very aggressive and keeps his hands down, and I am pretty confident he will get knocked out again if he keeps fighting like that. He is just open to be hit and has questionable durability. He was also getting out slicked standing by Said when both guys were fresh.

Oliveira will mix in takedowns as well, but I don’t think he is a skilled offensive wrestler or submission grappler. I think his striking will be his main path to victory at this level. I do like Oliveira’s ground-and-pound when he actually gets on top though. He was having some wrestling success against Said but I do think it was mostly because of the fatigue setting in for Said. Oliveira may be a better wrestler offensively than I am giving him credit for though because him landing takedowns on Said did surprise me a bit.

Oliveira has okay defensive wrestling. He is defending takedowns at 62 percent. Sopaj did get him down three times and got his back at one point. Sopaj gassed out though. Simon was able to land two takedowns but Simon couldn’t keep Oliviera down. Simon never had the best top control so I wasn’t shocked by that outcome. I basically think Oliveira has decent takedown defense, but it’s not perfect. I do think a decent grappler can have success against him though and could get a good position with a body triangle.

As far as this matchup goes, I am pretty torn here. Pre-tape, I thought the line was way off and that I would surely pick Phillips to win. After tape, I am not confident in Phillips at all but I still do think this is a very competitive fight.

Phillips is the more skillful fighter in my opinion. He is a more skilled striker and grappler ,so that is why I did lean him pre-tape and still why I think he can win this fight. He could just show that he is a bit better than Oliveira in all areas.

The issue is the skill gap isn’t massive. The striking and grappling are still probably very competitive and I don’t think Phillips will pull away in either department. 

Furthermore, Oliveira is really big and physical with better cardio. He may just walk Phillips down, tire Phillips out and start pulling away later in this fight. It honestly will probably happen to a degree at some point. I don’t think Phillips will be tired to the point of being defenseless late in this fight. However, Phillips will probably labor a bit.

So overall, I probably lean Phillips a bit early and Oliveira a bit late which makes this a very close fight.

I do think Phillips has a durability advantage though. Phillips is sneakily extremely durable and has never been finished. Phillips is also pretty dangerous at times and I really do think he could hurt Oliveira, especially early.

I still think this fight likely extends though with Phillips winning early but Oliveira winning late. This honestly has split decision written all over it.

—

On DraftKings, I’m more likely to play Phillips of the two at 7.7k.

I think Phillips has more wrestling upside, and he may have some knockout equity as well. Oliveira hasn’t really shown those defensive vulnerabilities inside the UFC but he’s still allowed takedowns, and he’s gotten brutally KOd on the regionals.

I really want to be high on Phillips but I hate the optics of his game. He’s also very inconsistent. He fought well against Munoz and landed 114 sig. strikes, but more recently against Font, he gassed out again.

If Oliveira is chasing him down by round two, Oliveira will win this. And while Phillips can have wrestling success, it could tire him out if he can’t secure control.

Still, Phillips is averaging more than 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and Oliveira has been taken down by three consecutive opponents. Phillips should land a few takedowns and he’ll have some control/submission upside.

I wouldn’t put too much stock into the KO equity but it’s not impossible, and if Phillips cardio is on point, 80+ sig. strikes are in play too. In a win, I would expect Phillips to exceed value and flirt with 90 DK points. He hasn’t shown elite upside in the UFC but he has two wrestling based wins that scored 99 and 91, so that’s what we’d be hoping for.

Phillips isn’t a must play. He’s still sorta expensive at 7.7k and only carries +375 ITD line. But I’d say he’s a solid secondary option who can absolutely win the fight, and hopefully exceed value along with it. A fighter who I’m happy to mix in near or slightly above the field this week.

Oliveira at 8.5k probably needs a finish, which I’m not predicting.

I don’t think he has tremendous volume upside as Phillips is hard to land volume on. And I don’t think he has a ton of wrestling upside either.

The primary upside for Oliveira is if Phillips gasses. In that situation, I could see a mid or late round TKO plus a couple of takedowns. Oliveira is +230 to win ITD which is OK.

I’m fine if you want to consider Oliveira a secondary option on this slate. He’s aggressive and dangerous. This isn’t a particularly good matchup for him but there are ways for him to get there if Phillips slows down.

It’s worth noting he’s only scored 80 and 77 in his two UFC decision wins, so that’s my big fear. I’m probably going to be light and underweight on Oliveira this week, but I understand mixing him in a bit just in case or if salary forces it.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oliveira by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen

Fight Odds: Allen -203, Vettori +171

Odds to end ITD: +210

DraftKings Salaries: Allen 8.8k, Vettori 7.4k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Marvin Vettori’s in his 10th year on the roster and despite only being 31 years old, he’s looked relatively shop worn in recent years, and is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career – he’s 9-6-1 in the UFC and 19-7-1 as a pro. Brendan Allen’s a Contender Series alum from the 2019 season who’s proven his worth at 185 lbs. and has been one of the more active fighters on the roster. But similar to his matchup counterpart, he’ll be looking to snap a 2-fight skid for the first time in his career as well – he’s 12-4 in the UFC and 24-7 as a pro.

The striking component: 

Vettori’s always been an interesting guy in the standup because his style doesn’t look the prettiest or flashiest as he’s a bit rickety, but it’s a style that’s largely worked for him..    

He’s traditionally a guy that will go forward, look to stay in opponents’ faces and outwork them over the course of fights. In that, he lands 4.5 SLpM at 46%.     

He’s outpaced all of his opponents in his W’s with the exception of Holland – a fight that took place at distance for only five minutes of a 25 minute fight where he took a wrestling heavy approach. Vettori has some pop on his shots but isn’t a pure power guy either with no UFC KO’s, and is more so volume/pressure based – he did hurt Cannonier in round one and Dolidze in round three of his last two fights though, despite scoring no official knockdowns.    

He’s a hittable fighter though eating 4.37 SApM at 56%. But he’s shown to have an iron clad chin with his durability being one of the better attributes of his game amongst other things.

However, we’ve seen some of the historical things mentioned above with Vettori start to falter more in recent fights. The main thing being that he’s the one being put on the back foot in a lot of these fights now where he’s not able to dictate the pace – as a result, he hasn’t been as effective and is starting to take more shots.

While Dolidze is an improved fighter, Vettori getting outlanded over five rounds by him (albeit not by much) is a pretty bearish look – I do think that fight was a lot more competitive than people said though.

Overall, despite his recent slide, Vettori’s still a good striker that you can anticipate to be in there for 15 minutes and will produce a high amount of offense.

Allen is a grappler by base but since moving down to Florida at Kill Cliff FC with Henry Hooft, we have seen strides made in his stand up.       

In general, I’d say he just appears to be more comfortable now than before. His primary success has come in the mid-range or when he can be the pressure fighter dictating the exchanges. He’s shown a good straight, an improved kicking game and some nice knees in the clinch.       

Statistically, he’s kept an okay work rate of 3.55 SLpM at 53%. Over half of his fight time is spent grappling though, so his distance numbers are more representative, landing 6 DLpM at 50%.      

He’s hurt a handful of opponents and will throw with intent but still isn’t a guy I’d classify as a “big hitter”.  

However, his defense isn’t something that’s really caught up as he still eats 3.7 SApM only defending at a 45% clip – at distance 6.8 DApM at 48% — not good.     

It’s been the higher volume strikers in Strickland and Curtis that have given him bigger issues who were also able to knock him out.       

Secondarily, he’s susceptible to straights, the body and in the pocket – pressure against has been an issue for Allen.       

In Allen’s defense, he has fought some pretty sound strikers over the years as well.      

Overall, I like some of the improvements I’ve seen from Allen, but he still profiles to struggle with opposing pressure, volume and more technical parties.

How it plays out: Off the top, Allen will realize a slight size advantage of 2” in height and 1” in reach. The striking dynamic is pretty interesting here because I think a big part of what it comes down to is who’s able to lead the dance. As noted, that has been an issue for Vettori more recently but it’s also come against more brooding opponents. I don’t think Allen is as assertive as a striker as guys like Cannonier or Dolidze, so I have more optimism for Vettori potentially getting back to his roots. I do think Allen is a bit quicker and more diverse in his shot selection in comparison to Vettori but I also think in totality, Vettori is better defensively and more durable. Ultimately, I don’t have the strongest read here because there’s some variability based on approach and sequencing, but my overarching assessment is that it’s probably competitive on the feet.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Vettori’s wrestling approach has always been very matchup dependent over the years but he’s a capable wrestler, landing 1.5 per 15 minutes at 45%.   

He’s also a brown belt in BJJ and has always had an underrated grappling game in my eyes – two sub wins in the UFC.    

Defensively, he’s been pretty difficult to wrestle with his TDD sitting at 69%.    

The only guy to have extended wrestling success on him was Antonio Carlos Junior (high level Black Belt) back in 2016 when Vettori was just a kid, and he also didn’t get submitted. Only 28% of Vettori fight time is spent grappling but he’s out controlling his opponents at a near 4:1 ratio.   

Overall, this has been a good complement to Vettori’s striking game and has aided in him winning fights in his further past, but hasn’t come much into play in recent years.   

Allen is a BJJ black belt with the floor being a component of some of his UFC success.       

However, he’s not anything special as an offensive wrestling talent with middling metrics of 1.53 TDs per 15 minutes at 38%. Allen taking Jotko down as easily as he did in that outing was pretty impressive though.      

Really, Allen’s credence is that he is a good grappler who can win transitionally and in scrambles – we saw this against Holland, Daukaus (to some extent), Roberson in the 50/50 position and with Malkoun.      

Him outgrappling a world class guy in Muniz was pretty impressive as well which does show that Allen is game against anyone on the ground. Additionally, avoiding submissions from Craig who we know has a dangerous guard.      

At the same time, his TDD is still poor at 56% and has lost minutes trading positions on the floor as well – in those same fights listed above, he also got controlled in those fights as well.      

Allen was outwrestled by Malkoun, getting taken down seven times and controlled for seven minutes.       

However, Malkoun lost position at some inopportune moments and Allen was able to get on top in that fight as well which ultimately swayed the judges – I personally felt Malkoun won that fight as did many others, but it was very close. 

He won the first round cleanly over Imavov but gassed out and conceded 5.5 minutes of control time in the latter rounds dropping that fight.

He had early success on Hernandez last time out but ultimately got outhustled over the course of the fight – no overt shame there though considering that’s what Hernandez has done to pretty much everyone.         

Overall, Allen’s a plus grappler and he’s proven that. But I also can’t disregard the negative points for him on the mat as well as he’s still not a strong wrestler offensively or defensively.

How it plays out: The ground is also interesting to a degree just in the sense that the wrestling patterns of both guys have been variable. In current form, I would project Allen to be the more proactive guy here though and he is the better submission grappler. However, Vettori isn’t easy to take down and hold down – as referenced, the last time an opponent had extended ground success on him came a decade ago and Vettori’s also never been submitted in his pro career. I still give Allen more upside on pursuit but my general take is that Vettori will be able to muzzle the bulk of his offense.

Good fight. I’m honestly surprised these guys haven’t squared off before considering how long they’ve been in the promotion. For everything ran through, it’s not an easy fight to call. Favoring Allen probably makes sense because he’s in a bit better form right now and has more grappling upside, but I also think with the fight being three rounds, Vettori’s going to make this fight a lot closer than people think and is live to pull the upset – I’ll say he edges it out as more of a value pick.

—

On DraftKings, I’m not a huge fan of this fight and it won’t be a priority for me.

Allen feels way too expensive at 8.8k and I’d lean toward fading him personally.

The bulk of his upside lies in grappling domination and I don’t see that being an easy path against Vettori. Projecting Allen for a couple of takedowns is still fair, but unless he wins by submission, I doubt it’s enough to stand out at this price tag.

Allen is only +325 to win ITD so he just rates out poorly. Plus, Vettori is ultra tough.

I can understand being mildly interested in Allen for grappling theoretics, but I think this fight is very likely to extend. It is -270 to go the full distance which just doesn’t bode well for Allen to hit a ceiling.

I’m not opposed to sprinkling in Allen if you have more faith, but I honestly do not like him in this matchup and 8.8k is too expensive for my taste, so I’ll lean toward being very light overall.

Vettori at 7.4k is my preferred target.

The issue is that he may very well just land 60-70 sig. strikes in a loss. Or he could land that in a win, and score 60 points on DK. His floor and ceiling look very weak.

The positive is that he definitely can win this fight, and 7.4k is a cheap price point. He may honestly be the better wrestler outright too, though I wouldn’t project him for much, 1-2 takedowns aren’t out of the question.

Plus, Allen isn’t very strong defensively as a striker. Vettori could hurt him. I wouldn’t bet on it but it’s possible. Vettori is only +525 to win ITD.

I think Vettori is a little bit sneaky for upside, but from a base case, he’s a mediocre, low-end secondary target. Someone who I don’t mind for win equity but it’s very reasonable to question his ceiling and therefore make him a low-end, salary-saving target on the whole.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vettori by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov

Fight Odds: Prado -141, Veretennikov +122

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Prado 8.3k, Veretennikov 7.9k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a likely striking clash here between Francisco Prado and Nikolay Veretennikov.

Prado is 23 years old and is 12-3 professionally. Most of his wins have come against poor competition. He has finished everyone that he has beaten, mostly in the first round. He is 1-3 in the UFC dropping three striking based decisions to decent competition in Mullarkey, Zellhuber, and Matthews. His one win came by knockout against Ottman Azaitar.

Prado looks decently dangerous in the pocket early in fights. He isn’t super skilled on the feet, but he has a come forward style and will look to come out hard. I do think he can realistically knock guys out early at this level which he did against Ottman Azaitar in his last win.

Other than that, I don’t think Prado is all that skilled on the feet though. He just doesn’t look all that technical or defensively sound. He lost his UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey and was outlanded 59-28 in significant strikes, and taken down three times. He lost that fight quite easily. Overall he lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.32.

If Prado didn’t get the quick finish on the feet in the regionals, he actually looked to grapple. He has a decent double leg and can kind of float on top a bit. I don’t think he is super skilled on the mat, but he has a decent understanding of positions and is a young physical kid. I don’t think offensive grappling will be much of a path to victory for him at this level. It would have to come against very bad grapplers. He has only landed one takedown on 11 attempts in the UFC.

I don’t really trust Prado at this point other than quick knockouts. He just looks so green to me. He can probably win some competitive striking based decisions against similar tier competition too, but that is about it.

Prado will be taking on Nikolay Veretennikov. Veretennikov is from Kazakhstan and is 12-6 professionally. 

Veretennikov actually has a couple of close decision losses against Michael Morales and Danny Barlow. He was outstruck against Morales 53-52 in significant strikes. He actually outlanded Barlow 50-47 in significant strikes. Both of those losses have actually aged well to be honest. Veretennikov then got dominated on the mat against Austin Vanderford in his last matchup.

I mostly consider Veretennikov a striker. I think he is pretty decent on the feet and the fact that he struck competitively with Morales and Barlow shows that he is competent there. 

Standing out of the orthodox stance, Veretennikov has some pretty decent hands and pretty good hooks in the pocket. He can also mix in some body kicks. He is defensively sound. He does have some power and he has nine wins by knockout.

Veretennikov does have some volume issues at times though. He only landed 52 and 50 significant strikes in his two UFC decisions. However, those came against Barlow and Morales who are good opponents and difficult to tally a strike count against. I think Veretennikov is capable of more volume than that. I do wish he fought at a higher pace though. He seems durable as well and he has only lost by standing knockout once.

Veretennikov doesn’t wrestle all that much but I have seen him float on top and land ground-and-pound. Good wrestlers can definitely beat him on the mat though and we saw that against Vanderford.

Veretennikov is just a competent striker who can fight at the UFC level in pure striking fights.

As far as this matchup goes, I generally think these guys will strike. Prado may attempt some takedowns but I really don’t trust his actual wrestling and my guess is we get stretches of striking here.

On the feet, I do think Prado can compete by being aggressive and taking advantage of Veretennikov’s lack of activity at times. Prado is also tough so he can probably extend this fight and stick around. For those reasons, Prado could win this fight. Perhaps I am also just underrating the grappling potential of Prado here as well.

I still think Veretennikov is a little more dangerous and skilled as a striker, especially defensively though. Prado has just never had a good durational striking performance and Veretennikov striking competitively with Barlow and Morales is better than anything Prado has ever done. I have never actually been impressed with anything Prado has ever done.

So I am actually going to go with Veretennikov here. I honestly think Veretennikov is probably the better striker straight up and I am not even sure Prado should be favored. Prado can likely stay competitive by being aggressive but I don’t really see him pulling away either. 

—

On DraftKings, this one feels extremely boom or bust to me and I’d lean against targeting it as a priority.

I suppose of the two, Prado is who I would target at 8.3k. He has some power and he just took down Jake Matthews once. Maybe there’s mild grappling equity here, even though I doubt it.

He is +175 to win ITD though which is all that I really care about. Prado has some chance at a finish, though it’s not a strong chance. If he can secure it at 8.3k, he can contend for the optimal.

The base scenarios here aren’t great though, and I’d project Prado for like 80ish significant strikes in a decision win, which would score something like 65 DK points. Even with extracurriculars, I’m not sold Prado can reach 10x. On a 14 fight slate, he needs a big score to stand out.

The only way that’s going to happen is with an early KO or unforeseen grappling domination. As Veretennikov has been outgrappled in recent fights, maybe there’s a sneaky chance for Prado but he’s clearly nowhere near as good on the ground as recent opponents Vertennikov has faced.

As far as the KO upside, Veretennikov isn’t easy to finish. He is 35 years old though and 12 years the elder of Prado.

I just consider Prado a fine, but not fantastic secondary target who is ultra boom or bust. In situations where I want to save salary to try and pay up to the top, I’ll be fine to mix Prado in. But I wouldn’t expect to be heavy on him and coming in near the field percentage feels correct.

Veretennikov feels ultra boom or bust to me as well at 7.9k.

He hasn’t landed a takedown in 40 minutes of cage time and has only landed 50 and 52 sig. strikes in his two decisions. I don’t really see a major path for upside even though Prado is weak on the mat too.

He likely needs a KO to be optimal, and he only carries a +375 ITD line, which isn’t strong and not nearly as strong as Prado’s. For that reason he’s less preferred.

I only see Vertennikov as a contrarian target this week. He won’t be very popular and will carry some leverage against Prado, but it’s not an ideal matchup for him and he hasn’t proven much thus far. Tim and Gordo both like him to win, for what it’s worth. Still unsure that it will translate into any meaningful DK upside without a finish.

Veretennikov will be the bigger man, and he does hit hard, so I don’t want to say it’s an impossible task. Prado has already survived Matthews and Zellhuber though who are more dangerous strikers than Veretennikov, so I’m just not willing to bet much here on a finish. If you want to sprinkle him in for contrarian purposes and general variance, that’s fine.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Prado by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin

Fight Odds: Gautier -514, Valentin +397

Odds to end ITD: -800

DraftKings Salaries: Gautier 9.4k, Valentin 6.8k

Weight Class: 185

Hot prospect Ateba Gautier will aim for another brutal knockout on Saturday as he takes on former TUF finalist Robert Valentin.

Gautier made his UFC debut in March and scored a beautiful knockout win over Jose Medina in the first round. He’s now 7-1 professionally, earning six wins by knockout and one by decision.

He earned his contract on the Contender Series last September, knocking out his opponent in the second round. He’s only 23 years old.

Gautier came from a rough upbringing in Cameroon but caught the attention of Manchester Top Team where he currently trains with Lerone Murphy and co. He’s a freak athlete, and super physical, and that can clearly translate into knockout power.

You can also see the explosiveness in his game. Gautier will throw flying knees, and he can do some strong work in the clinch where he’s super capable of big moments. He just clearly is not polished and I wouldn’t label him as some blue chip prospect at this point.

Even on the Contender Series, Gautier was taken down early in the first round and he had zero clue how to get back up. In the second round, he was able to hurt his opponent and finish him off with ground strikes, so fair play to the kid, but it’s tough for me to get too excited.

Gautier’s one pro loss came by decision in 2022 in a fight that he was dominating early. His opponent kept diving on takedowns early and ending up on the bottom, where Gautier was beating him up on top. Gautier got tired and lost the second and third rounds to lose the decision.

Since then, Gautier has five RD 1 KOs and the lone RD 2 KO on the Contender Series.

I just have to view him as a fighter who needs early success, and success tied to damage. It seems obvious that he has serious defensive wrestling issues and I expect him to get easily beaten by any strong UFC level wrestler.

I also don’t know if his striking is even that great. Yes, he is dangerous but I don’t think he’s going to be a great minute winner and I don’t think he’s been tested in any regard. I’m not sold on his cardio or durability either.

Gautier can definitely pick up some KOs in the UFC and maybe with improved cardio and wrestling, he can become a decent talent. For now, the UFC has to be super careful who they match him up with.

Next he will face Robert Valentin, who lost in the Finale of the Ultimate Fighter to Ryan Loder, and more recently lost a hilarious decision to Torrez Finney.

Valentin is now 10-5 professionally at age 30, fighting out of Switzerland. He’s earned three wins by knockout and six by submission, and he finished both of his TUF matches in the first round.

He’s OK but clearly isn’t a great talent. I think he’s a pretty fluid kickboxer with some possibly well-rounded skills.

On TUF, he melted his first opponent in seconds and followed up with some nasty shots on the mat. In his second fight, he and his opponent were trading early, and Valentin had the guy hurt a bit. Valentin decided to throw bombs against the cage but ended up getting rocked himself, and then shot a takedown. He ended up on top and finished with a nice crucifix arm lock.

Otherwise, he seems like a somewhat dangerous fighter early. He has a Judo background and can occasionally take guys down, and take their backs in some of his recent regional fights. Others he’s more kickboxing based.

I did see him get taken down and outgrappled in his most recent pro loss, and I don’t think he’s a phenomenal wrestler. He was defending takedowns OK but ultimately ended up on his back playing guard for a while.

I need to see more footage of Valentin before I make any real stands, but I think his hands are his best attributes. He is pretty fast and explosive, and definitely has some knockout upside. I’m not certain about volume over an extended period, or durability.

His grappling is possibly good enough to defend and attack in scrambles if necessary but I doubt it’s a primary path to victory at the UFC level.

This matchup is just weird because Valentin hasn’t really been able to show anything in the UFC through two fights. He got taken down and pounded on by Loder for a stoppage early, and then got held down by Finney for 13 minutes in a fight the judges still almost gave to him.

Meanwhile, I am not sure if Gautier is making any improvements. I bet he is, but I also bet his defensive wrestling is still a major issue.

Valentin really isn’t a strong offensive wrestler but the fact that he’s won several times by submission, and has some experience wrestling and taking the back is pretty intriguing.

I honestly have to give Valentin a legit shot at winning because of this. Gautier just looks too inexperienced on the mat for my liking, and I do feel like a loss is coming sooner or later.

To be fair, the fight starts standing where Gautier is better. He is the better athlete and more powerful striker, and he’ll have a shot at a RD1/2 KO. It may be one of the more likely outcomes of the fight.

Valentin will still throw back, and could be one of the better strikers Gautier has faced too. Valentin can crack and I’d at least give him a chance in striking exchanges due to variance, and because Gautier tends to slow down.

Still, I’d favor Gautier moderately there.

Will Valentin even try to wrestle? I’m not sure. I’d guess yes because it’s such an obvious spot, but that still doesn’t mean he’ll be successful. It may only take one real back take for him to pull off a sub though as he should be the more crafty grappler of the two.

This is an ugly fight. I think Valentin is more live than the betting line indicates because Gautier is just so green. But Valentin isn’t super processed and he probably needs to overperform expectation to have real grappling success.

I’ll take Gautier to pick up another knockout win here but I think Valentin is experienced enough and well-rounded enough to make this interesting, especially if he can extend the fight.

—

On DraftKings, Gautier is going to rate out well at 9.4k for knockout upside but he seems like the most boom/bust option to me in the top end.

Gautier isn’t likely to wrestle, and could have issues being held on his back. Plus, he’s just not going to land a ton of volume, and an extended fight may spell disaster.

So I really think Gautier needs to pick up an early KO to have any shot at the optimal. He did that in his UFC debut and scored 111 points, which I’m guessing will lead to more public ownership.

Gautier is -375 to win ITD in this fight which is elite, and one of the best lines per dollar on the slate. While Ferreira and Dulatov have elite ITD numbers too, they’re $200 and $300 more expensive, and I think that a lot of ownership will fall onto Gautier by default.

I don’t necessarily have a problem with it, but Gautier might be my least favorite of the trio in a vacuum. He’s so green and limited. But he’s a dangerous striker with KO power, and that might be enough to pick up another quick finish.

Clearly, Gautier is going to be a target on this slate and it’s fine if you want to prioritize him due to pricing. I may prefer to be underweight if he projects to be super popular, and I don’t mind pivoting away. But he’s more affordable than other top options and provides the finishing equity you’d want from a fighter of this price tag.

Valentin isn’t a great target at 6.8k, but I do think he’s a viable punt.

He can strike and grapple, and most of his wins come ITD. Gautier has both cardio and wrestling question marks. Valentin is cheap and will carry heavy leverage against Gautier.

So in that sense, I don’t mind a sprinkle of Valentin. I won’t have a lot of him, but when I am forced to pay down, he’s one acceptable option.

This is a mess of a fight and Valentin is only a punt, but one of a few who is at least on my radar for large fields.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gautier by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov

Fight Odds: Dulatov -601, Fugitt +452

Odds to end ITD: -700

DraftKings Salaries: Dulatov 9.6k, Fugitt 6.6k

Weight Class: 170

Another newcomer to the welterweight division, I’m excited to see the debut of Islam Dulatov who will face Adam Fugitt on Saturday.

Dulatov is 11-1 professionally and fighting out of Germany, though he was born in Chechnya, which you might expect based on his name. He has been training recently at American Top Team which is a big positive. 

He holds six wins by knockout and five by submission, and his only loss came in his pro debut in 2019, which was by decision.

In that loss, Dulatov struggled in the wrestling department and couldn’t get up from his back, which is a mild concern.

In his more recent fights, it’s been clear that Dulatov has made improvements. He can sprawl well, and his submission grappling is quite solid. He will chase front chokes and seems like an opportunistic grappler, so even if he does get taken down occasionally, I think he can survive and threaten.

On the feet, Dulatov looks pretty dangerous. He has really long limbs and his legs especially look long. He stands 6’3” with a 75 inch reach.

He’s coming off a Contender Series victory in which he essentially just threw a barrage at his opponent, lighting him up and keeping the pressure. Eventually he found the kill shot in a few minutes and forced the stoppage.

My concerns at the moment with Dulatov probably come in an extended fight. A lot of his wins have been early blitzes, and I’m not sure he’s going to be as successful in a war over the duration.

Additionally, I’m still not sold on his offensive wrestling. Even on the offensive side, I’m skeptical he easily takes down solid opposition, and I could see him losing some minutes from his back.

But he looks like a semi-dangerous prospect. I especially like his striking, where his long frame suits him. He’s able to throw in fair volume and I think he can hurt plenty of opponents. As noted, his submission grappling looks strong too but I consider him more of an opportunist than some grinding wrestling/grappler.

Dulatov will be taking on Adam Fugitt, who is coming off a split decision win over Josh Quinlan.

Prior to that, Fugitt was finished by both Mike Malott and Michael Morales, two strong opponents. He picked up a win over Japanese prospect Yusaku Kinoshita in the interim.

Fugitt is probably best as a wrestler, coming from a Junior College background, and he did land four takedowns in his win over Kinoshita. He also landed a takedown against Morales in his UFC debut.

But he’s not a very strong submission grappler even with a brown belt in BJJ, and hasn’t done a lot of work on the mat in the UFC. In his last fight, he only attempted two takedowns and didn’t land either, so I wouldn’t consider offensive wrestling a great path to victory for Fugitt.

On the feet, Fugitt isn’t really a UFC level striker, though he’s coming off the striking based victory. He at least landed 80 sig. strikes in that matchup while absorbing 53, but still only won a split decision.

Defensively it’s been a bit of an issue, as Fugitt has been knocked down in both of his losses, and finished both times. He’s also been knocked dead on the regionals too.

Now at 36 years old, Fugitt is much more likely to lose a few fights and be cut from the UFC, than he is to win a few fights and climb the rankings. I don’t really see many strong paths to victory for him and I have defensive concerns everywhere.

In this particular matchup, it should be Dulatov’s to win.

I do think it’s possible Fugitt could land a takedown or two, and perhaps he does have a path to victory via top control. But I think Dulatov is the better submission grappler, and would likely threaten Fugitt with chokes even on takedown attempts.

I would not be surprised to see Dulatov win this fight by sub, either as a defensive measure, or an offensive one.

Given how Dulatov fought on DWCS, my guess is he will hunt for the kill early. He probably will have success, and I think it’s pretty likely he can land early and hurt Fugitt. I think a knockout or club-and-sub is the most likely outcome for Dulatov.

If this turns into a war, maybe Fugitt can hurt Dulatov. Maybe Dulatov will slow down. Fugitt isn’t a bad athlete and has mild power. He’s just not a real knockout artist and hasn’t had much power based success at the UFC level.

I just see Dulatov as the clearly superior athlete, and far more dangerous finisher. There may be some holes in his game that allow Fugitt to compete if Dulatov underperforms. But the most likely outcome to me is Dulatov finding an early finish, one that probably stems from striking success.

—

On DraftKings, Dulatov is 9.6k which is pretty expensive.

The more frustrating part here is that I actually like Dulatov and want exposure to him on this slate. But once you pay up to 9.6k, you’re very much in play to roster Ferreira, and so it becomes a guessing game of who will perform better. I picked wrong last week on Kline vs. Davis so it’s tough to take a firm stance.

Ferreira obviously has the better chance to win early on paper, but I think it’s pretty close, and I think Dulatov is the more likely fighter to produce offense overall. Plus, I think Dulatov is a tad bit safer

Dulatov can fight at a higher pace and throw more strikes, but Fugitt is also more experienced than McVey. I still think Fugitt will get hurt and Dulatov has a legit chance to win in round one.

Dulatov is lined at -375 to win ITD which is really strong. My biggest fear honestly is that he forces Fugitt to wrestle and then locks up a choke, which wouldn’t enable him to reach an elite ceiling. I also haven’t seen tons of offensive wrestling from Dulatov, so he might be more limited there.

It would be fair to favor Ferreira over Dulatov outright, if you have the salary. I’m also expecting Dulatov to be the lowest owned of that elite trio (including Gautier), so that’s a factor as well. The lower owned he is, the better target he becomes in comparison to the others.

I just loved the pressure Dulatov put on his DWCS opponent, and if he fights with that game plan, he can definitely win in round one. That will give him a strong score and a chance to contend for the optimal.

Like Ferreira, if I can’t afford him, so be it. There are plenty of decent finishing options on this slate and I’m not going to force these expensive fighters in if it means I have to roster terrible underdogs.

But it seems like there’s a lot of early finishing equity at the top this week, and I do think Dulatov is part of that top tier. I’m expecting a strong result and if I have the salary to pay up, Dulatov is among my favorite options this week.

Fugitt is priced down to 6.6k and I’m not a huge fan of his this week.

I’d rather take a chance on McVey than Fugitt. For Fugitt to have real success, I think he probably just needs to land a lucky shot in a brawling exchange. That, or wrestle a bit and hope Dulatov gasses out. I don’t think either are particularly likely.

Fugitt is only +550 to win ITD which isn’t particularly good, and he’s a big dog. At best, he’s a dart throw and someone who can be used for uniqueness, and leverage. But I don’t see a great path to him scoring points and I’m not a huge fan of his talents. 

With a limited portfolio, I’ll be very light on Fugitt this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dulatov by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio

Fight Odds: Crute -309, Prachnio +253

Odds to end ITD: -190

DraftKings Salaries: Crute 9k, Prachnio 7.2k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Jimmy Crute earned a contract on one of the early seasons of Contender Series back in 2018 where he had a hotter start to his run, but began to struggle when he started facing top 15 levels of competition. Crute also announced his retirement after his loss to Alonzo Menifield back in 2023 despite being only 26 years old. But he decided to return and is coming off a draw with Rodolfo Bellato in February – he’s 4-4-1 in the UFC and 12-4-2 as a pro. Marchin Prachnio’s entering his 8th year on the active roster which is somewhat shocking to say but he has picked up wins at the right times to keep ahold of his job – he’s 4-6 in the UFC and 17-8 as a pro.

The striking component: 

Crute’s striking is still a bit difficult to gauge despite us having six years of UFC fights – his distance time is still small at scale so I’m not going to reference stats for him.   

Offensively, he’s got some power in his right hand in which we saw him put down both Alvey and Bukauskas – he also dropped Bellato with that same shot last time out in round 1. He’ll also mix in leg kicks which gave him some good success against Smith, but ironically he ate one leg kick from Smith which deaded his nerve, causing the fight to be stopped after round one.   

Defensively, it hasn’t been great – struggled with the straights of Smith, ate a nasty left hook from Hill, got dropped twice by Menifield/significantly hurt standing on another occasion and got outlanded by Bellato down the stretch of his last fight forcing a draw. I actually think there’s a good argument for Crute winning round two though where it wouldn’t have been a draw.  

In general, his stand up is just very rigid if I had to classify it with an individual term.   

Overall, I still want to see more striking time from Crute and his defense is still clearly a problem, but he’s capable offensively.

Through the bulk of Prachnio’s career, he’s been a “throw caution to the wind” kind of guy where he’d be very reckless when he enters the pocket, largely just winging big shots and leaving his chin exposed with no head movement.     

But we did see a bit more calculated pressure from Prachnio in his fight against Roundtree where he 2x’d him on strikes, working his way to a decision – good win in hindsight but Roundtree decided not to fight that night – Roundtree beats Prachnio at a higher clip if you get a good version of him.    

He worked Villanueva over with leg and body kicks but was also getting touched up on the feet – had early striking success against Lins but gassed and dropped the later rounds – he just kicked Knight for 15 minutes compromising his leg but had zero intention on finishing that fight – he outlanded Clark in route to a decision win – more recently, he officially outlanded Petrino and Buk on the numbers but both guys were landing the better shots.

He’s ultimately been more movement based in recent years, but he was flatlined in his first three UFC losses and has been hurt in numerous other fights despite his opponents not being able to put him away.   

Despite his wonky style, it’s worked for him in recent years though as his distance metrics are good, landing 6.1/minute and only absorbing 3.4/minute.  

So overall, I have seen improvement from Prachnio and I like his volume but it’s still largely junk volume and I don’t rate him highly as a striker – he’s still fragile and gassy in my opinion.

How it plays out: There’s some theoretical merit to Prachnio just running away for 15 minutes and throwing leg kicks as Crute isn’t the most finesse striker out there. But Crute’s usually going to force the issue, has the superior boxing and is a lot better on the inside. Crute’s also got a lot more power where we haven’t seen much of that from Prachnio outside of high kicks, so I’m not as concerned with Crute getting hurt here as I maybe would be in other matchups. Crute ultimately didn’t get KO’d by Menifield and took Bellato’s shots fine. As long as Crute doesn’t just stand there, he should land the better head strikes and is live to hurt Prachnio.

The wrestling/grappling component: 

Crute is a BJJ black belt and has shown offensive wrestling chops.   

Only 4 of his 12 pro wins have come via submission but he’s also finished guys with ground-and-pound. We saw him mat-return Oleksiejczuk a bunch before submitting him and landed some nice reactionary shots on Smith after his leg got blown up.   

He only landed one official TD on Craig but accrued over 8+ minutes of control time, also stuffing TDAs and scoring four reversals. Crute was the first guy to submit Paul Craig in his pro career who we now know is one of the more dangerous grapplers at 205lbs – pretty impressive.   

He also landed six TDs on Menifield in the first fight, racking up nearly eight minutes of control time – granted a chunk of that was against the fence in actually trying to secure – but he got the better of the overall ground exchanges which is what ultimately forced the draw with the Menifield point deduction for grappling the fence. Menifield largely shut him out in the rematch and actually guillotined Crute which wasn’t a great look – he also quick tapped.

He looked good on top of Bellato early most recently as well.   

But it’s not without any adversity either – he got Peruvian’d by Cirkunov but really no shame there as the setup was solid – he did reverse Cirkunov at one point but also spent the majority of that 4-minute fight on his back. Getting taken down three times by Paul Craig wasn’t the greatest of looks in the world either from a defensive wrestling perspective but he reversed as noted.  

Overall, the 205 lb. division isn’t exactly known for its grappling prowess (by and large) so Crute is going to pose as one of the more dangerous offensive threats, but I’m still curious if his TDD has gotten better over the years because he hasn’t faced much in volume – he’s competent on the bottom though and won’t hang out there.

Wrestling/grappling in Prachnio fights hasn’t been the most present thing.      

He did have one regional fight 8+ years ago where he had some wrestling success but also got grinded on at points in the fight as well. He did look to clinch up with Alvey in their fight but there’s almost always clinching in Sam Alvey fights regardless of his opponents, based on his back up counter game.     

We saw some similar things against Lins as well but he’s only landed one official TD which came late against Devin Clark of all people.  

Defensively, he’s been taken down by Alvey and Villanueva, which just isn’t a good look despite working up quickly.    

But it was his outing against Lins where Lins landed four TDs which helped seal the deal for the W there – Prachnio did work up on those TDs too though and didn’t spend much time flattened on his back – the bulk of control time for Lins did come against the cage or just in general pursuit of TDs.    

Petrino worked him on the ground and eventually subbed him but not the worst loss. Him getting outgrappled and arm triangled again by Bukauskas wasn’t a good look though, considering that was Buk’s first submission win since 2018 and Prachnio looked lost on the bottom.

Overall, you can’t project much offensive grappling upside for Prachnio, but he’s shown decent get ups in certain spots but looks bad when flattened and tired.

How it plays out: I don’t have much to say as there’s just levels on the ground here. Crute’s getting his TDs at 52% and Prachnio’s only stuffing at 53%. If Crute’s gameplan is to push TDs (it should be), he’s going to get Prachnio down. On the ground, it’s Black Belt versus Blue Belt. Crute also has better pure jiu-jitsu than both of the guys that have recently subbed Prachnio in Petrino and Bukauskas.

Jimmy Crute’s had a weird career and hasn’t won a fight in nearly five years. But this is a “get right spot” if I’ve ever seen one as Prachnio’s a good sized step down in competition from who Crute’s been fighting. Prachnio does have some weasel capabilities but like I said, it’s kind of hard to see him winning unless Crute just doesn’t do anything. Crute really should run through him on the floor though and make this look fairly easy.

—

On DraftKings, I’m definitely interested in Crute at 9k and he’s among my favorite targets on the slate, though that could come back to bite me.

It’s just tough because he hasn’t been winning, has some questionable aspects to his game and retired a couple years ago. But he looked dangerous in his return against Bellato and still put up 66 points in a draw.

Now he’s facing a guy in Prachnio who’s been knocked out cold many times, and has also been submitted multiple times. Crute has multiple outs here, and I think he can get the job done.

Plus, he’s 9k, so I consider him very affordable compared to the other top names. Double plus, because he hasn’t been winning, his box scores don’t look good and perhaps that means the public will shy away. I think they might to a degree given the strength of the 9k range.

I’m very willing to target Crute. If he burns me, he burns me. But he’s got real wrestling upside and he’s -140 to win ITD. He does probably need a finish and I also think there is bust risk, but I like the matchup and I like the upside he carries in a win compared to his DK price.

It’s tough to feel safe with Crute but at 9k, he’s a very strong upside option for the price tag and I’ll take the savings with him compared to some of the other elite targets.

Prachnio could be a potential leverage target and salary saver at 7.2k.

I don’t really want to play him, but he at least holds a path to victory. Crute has been knocked out before. Crute has gassed out before. Crute doesn’t always fight the smartest.

I still think a win for Prachnio probably looks like 80-100 sig. strikes in a decision, so I don’t necessarily see tremendous upside there. He’s only +575 to win ITD which isn’t strong. There could be mild KO upside though I wouldn’t bet on it.

He should be very low owned though and also will carry leverage against Crute. There are other spots I like better honestly, and although I do think there’s some low-end merit to Prachnio for the cost, it’s a tough sell for me on the matchup and I’ll aim to be fairly light this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Crute by Arm-Triangle, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)

Ryan Spann vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Fight Odds: Spann -237, Brzeski +198

Odds to end ITD: -800

DraftKings Salaries: Spann 8.7k, Brzeski 7.5k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Ryan Spann’s a Contender Series alum from one of the early seasons who’s now in his 8th year on the roster. He had a hot start to his run but has been hit or miss over the last five years. He’ll be getting a tighter turnaround and entering his 2nd consecutive fight up at heavyweight – he’s 8-6 in the UFC and 22-11 as a pro. Lukasz Brzeski’s a fellow Contender Series alum who’s lucky to still have a roster spot as he’s had an abysmal UFC run, currently sitting at 1-5 in the promotion – he’s 9-6-1 as a pro.

The striking component:

Spann is a semi-tricky guy to gauge on the feet, who won’t be undersized for the heavyweight division despite moving up. But he’s a lower output striker landing 3.2 SLpM at 39%, and his general pacing is inconsistent.         

He likes to control the center and more so fights in bursts, but those bursts have proven to be dangerous at times — KO’d Big Nog, hurt Clark before locking up the standing guillotine, iced an aging Cirkunov, had Johnny Walker on the ropes, put Reyes out cold with a power jab, hurt Smith in the rematch with a flying knee and more recently clocked OSP early leading to the submission.      

It’s really his straight shots in both hands and general hand speed being what makes him lethal but he can and will get wild in the pocket as well.      

Defensively is really where I have issues with Spann. He’s not necessarily eating a super high volume of strikes at 4.2 SApM; however, he only defends at 43%. He just doesn’t move very well and has some “stick in the mud” tendencies.        

We’ve seen him KO’d against the fence twice now, Smith knocked him down twice leading to the submission in their first contest and is coming off a KO loss to Acosta who’s not necessarily known as a perennial power guy.  

Additionally, Spann has been a front runner throughout his career where we only have a couple UFC fights for him that have had extended distance time.    

The Alvey fight was competitive going to a split decision which wasn’t a great look considering that was one of the more competitive fights Sam Alvey has had in the last 5-6 years – Alvey hurt him twice as well and probably should have got that decision.      

Then more recently in the rematch against Smith where he got out landed 91 to 59 losing a split. Numbers aside, based on round/damage sequencing, that fight could have gone to Spann in fairness.   

But point being, despite Spann now being in his 8th year on the roster, he still hasn’t proven he can win cleanly in extended striking fights.   

Overall, Spann is largely your kill or be killed archetype because he just doesn’t have the output/defense/cardio to consistently win minutes. But he is big/long/athletic for the weight class and dangerous so opponents always have to mind their Ps and Qs with him.

Brzeski is a lanky heavyweight that could probably make 205 to be honest.    

In relation to the lower levels of the weight class, he’s shown some good things on the feet with a lead hook, straight right and will go to the body. He’ll mix in kicks here and there but tends to primarily be boxing based.      

I don’t think he’s the most powerful guy in the world but he has finished five of his nine pro wins via strikes.      

The weird thing with Brzeski is his cardio as he looks visibly tired in all his fights, but is one of those guys that has pushed through it in many spots.   

I think part of it is that the guy just throws so much volume – for context, he threw 243 strikes on DWCS and 280 in his debut. So, despite being tired, I feel the primary merit to him in his career is just having more in the tank than his opponents and doing more.

In his lone UFC win, that proved some credence where he outlanded Walker 58 to 33 where he landed the better shots over the course of the fight which is what earned him the nod with some controversy.

Defensively, I thought he looked much better against Buday than any of his other past fights as he was moving relatively well – Buday did start to find later success though. Williams landed some bigger bombs on him in the limited time that fight was at space though where he got hurt and was KO’d by Acosta with a right hand.

He’s now coming off back to back 1st round KO losses as well to Parkin and Nzechukwu. I’ve seen him hurt in multiple regional fights too so it’s fair to say Brzeski has a poor chin at this point.

Overall, Brzeski kind of reminds me of Chase Sherman a bit. The fact that he’s a skinny-fat heavyweight will give him speed and output advantages over the sloppy lower-level tier, but his defense and durability issues have now reared their head in multiple fights.

How it plays out: Off the top, both guys will be at relative size parity where Spann will have a 1” height and reach advantage. The striking is a mess here. While both guys don’t have good durability, Brzeski’s is worse than Spann’s. I would also say that Spann has more raw power in comparison to Brzeski. With that dynamic, Spann’s pretty live to hurt Brzeski early in this fight. But as noted, Spann’s a poor minute winner with a bad gas tank. Brzeski’s cardio isn’t great either but I have seen him fight a harder 15 minutes in comparison to Spann. I bring that up to say that if Brzeski doesn’t get finished early, he inherently becomes very live to win on the feet as he’ll probably have more in the tank than Spann and will just throw more strikes.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Spann has had success with his grappling but somewhat unconventionally, as he’s got quite a few guillotines and a couple that were finished while standing.        

I don’t really rate his process grappling all that highly to be honest, but he is aggressive/opportunistic in attacking, and currently sits 4th in the division in sub attempts per 15 minutes.       

The main fight to focus on was against Henrique in his debut where he was taken down four times and controlled extensively but to his credit, he was able to reverse to top position twice. If he didn’t, he would have probably lost that fight.        

He also had some wrestling success against Walker before eating those elbows. Clark got him down a couple times but wasn’t able to control Spann.       

He then gave position away to Smith relatively easily and found himself submitted there after being hurt standing in the 1st contest.  He locked up his patented guillotine choke on Cutelaba who just bullied his way in and gave it no respect – not shocking. He was triangled by Krylov in a scramble fest. Smith got some top time in the rematch but Spann was able to work up. He dominated Guskov early on the mat but couldn’t finish and he most recently club-and-subbed OSP.    

In general though, he’s not the most consistent wrestler and usually only goes to it when he’s in trouble – also, he’s officially only landing his TDs at 31% which isn’t great.     

Overall, similar to the striking analysis, opponents have to mind their Ps and Qs with Spann because he is dangerous but isn’t a very strong offensive or defensive wrestler.

Brzeski’s hit some TDs here and there but is primarily looking to stand and strike.     

He was able to outwrestle his short notice CS opponent though, going 2/3 on TDs while racking up nearly eight minutes of control time – eventually finishing with an RNC.      

But the ground both offensively and defensively has been pretty sloppy in his fights.      

He has a couple submissions and positional TKOs on his record, but his ground success is almost solely predicated on gassed out opponents where he’s just able to have a bit more in the tank – those all came back regionally as well.     

Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much in the aggregate but did lose the 1st round on the floor against Kita – if Buday looked to pursue the wrestling more that fight would have been more decisive potentially. We saw him get rag-dolled by Williams who went 8/13 on takedowns, racking up 10 minutes of control – Brzeski also ate some big GNP in that spot.    

He more recently got taken down four times on five attempts against Walker, conceding 7 minutes of control. He also got mounted and had his back taken in the fight. Walker just didn’t really do any damage, landing only 8 ground strikes which left the door open for Brzeski to weasel that one out. 

Overall, he can outwrestle/control guys with little acumen, but I don’t rate his technical prowess and he’s clearly a defensive wrestling liability at this point, stuffing at just 36% in the UFC.

How it plays out: Despite my issues with Spann, he profiles as the better ground fighter here. Of the two, he’s more consistent to wrestle and is far more dangerous in the submission realm. What’s interesting though is that the guys who’ve outwrestled Brzeski in Williams and Walker are better wrestlers than Spann. What’s also interesting is that Brzeski’s never been submitted before. However, Spann’s arguably the most potent submission grappler he’s fought which brings an interesting contrast.

Weird fight man. I’ve never been a Ryan Spann guy as I’ve always thought he’s gotten by on his athletic attributes in comparison to being an overtly skilled fighter. He’s also a lazy fighter that doesn’t take his career very seriously – he’s always had poor cardio and looked pretty out of shape in his heavyweight debut last time out. On the flip side, Brzeski just isn’t really good at much outside of being a capable volume striker. So, the dynamic is somewhat straight forward – Spann’s going to finish him early or he’s going to gas out and probably just lose by proxy. I do come more out on the Spann side though because I just don’t trust Brzeski’s durability and Spann has the ability to submit him. I still don’t trust Spann at all past 5 minutes though (especially at heavyweight) so it’s not a confident take.

—

On DraftKings, this is a pretty gross fight but one that definitely carries fantasy intrigue.

Spann is my preferred target at 8.7k and it’s possible he could end up as the chalk. I’m not certain about that take though because he’s coming off a loss, and hasn’t scored 100 points in any of his past five fights.

However, his success is still tied pretty strongly to early finishes, and we’ve now seen Brzeski lose by RD 1 KO in each of his last three defeats. He’s also been knocked down in each of his past four losses.

This one just seems obvious to me. Spann probably won’t look great past a round but he definitely has early knockout upside here. He’s -180 to win ITD which is quite strong for the price as well.

Because of this, I think we need exposure, and I would potentially be excited to be above the field if the field was scared off by the recent results. It’s really not that I have tons of faith in Spann, but Brzeski gets hurt a lot and Spann is decent at dishing out early damage.

He looks like a very clear tournament target to me at 8.7k, and is among my favorite targets below 9k. With that said, he’s very boom or bust and could easily bust/lose if he can’t hurt Brzeski early.

Brzeski is the tougher call at 7.5k.

He won’t carry a lot of grappling equity and I don’t know if he’s landing a ton of strikes either. He may just lose quickly and has no real floor.

Spann is very fragile though and I’ve bet against him numerous times, with success. Brzeski is the higher volume striker and Spann isn’t that durable either. I don’t think Brzeski is likely to knock him out.. but maybe he can.. Spann is kind of pathetic to be honest.

You may still be unhappy if Brzeski wins a close decision and scores 70 points at 7.5k, but I really doubt he’ll be owned much given his weak track record. He probably does have sneaky KO upside too, and he should carry leverage against Spann. He’s actually +215 to win ITD which is great for the price tag and that could attract some attention.

I’m not in love with Brzeski.. but this feels like a good matchup to target, and it is -800 to end inside the distance. I suspect the majority of public exposure will go to Spann, which is fine, but that contributes to making Brzeski a potentially strong tournament target as well, given the dynamics.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Spann by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey

Fight Odds: Ferreira -553, McVey +442

Odds to end ITD: -1400

DraftKings Salaries: Ferreira 9.7k, McVey 6.5k

Weight Class: 185

The long awaited UFC debut of Jackson McVey is here!

Just kidding, but I do think it’s hilarious that the UFC is giving him Brunno Ferreira after McVey was scheduled to fight short-notice, random, low-level debutant Chris Ewert a few weeks ago.

That fight fell out after Ewert couldn’t make weight, so now McVey will make his UFC debut against Ferreira this weekend.

McVey is 6-0 as a pro, earning three wins by TKO and three by submission. He has never seen a second round in his professional career.

McVey is simply extremely untested, and has been fighting crap competition out of the Midwest. He basically chooses to crash the clinch and grapple.

In crashing the clinch, McVey has been able to land some big strikes, but I’ve seen almost zero distance time from him thus far. So despite his recent knockouts, I would essentially just label McVey as a grappler.

The best part of McVey’s game has been his submission grappling, and specifically his front choke series. He’s been very opportunistic and I think his chokes are decent, and potentially can work at the UFC level.

But the problem is that I doubt in his ability to wrestle at this level. We’ve seen some basic body lock takedowns but I wouldn’t bet on McVey being a strong wrestler or having any chain wrestling success. I’ve also seen him taken down and held down on the amateur scene.

So really, other than McVey aggressively diving after a choke in the first minute or two of the fight, we don’t know how he will look. Most often, the answer is not a good one, and I wouldn’t expect this to be different.

In an extended fight, I’d guess McVey’s game will fall apart, and he’ll be liable to be finished. His grappling and long frame may be enough for him to have some competitive exchanges early.

Brunno Ferreira is now 4-2 in the UFC and coming off a victory over Armen Petrosyan which burned me badly.

It’s not that I’m opposed to Ferreira as a fighter, but I do have major concerns as he takes steps up in competition.

Like McVey, Ferreira had never seen a decision when he entered the UFC and had rarely seen a round two. Despite powerful striking and a strong submission grappling game, Ferreira is not the type to excel in extended matchups.

Plus, Ferreira is super small for this weight class, standing at 5’10” with a 72-inch reach. He basically profiles as a fighter who needs early wins, as he won’t be able to sustain much volume over 15 minutes.

We’ve also seen Ferreira finished in both of his UFC losses, by Ruziboev in RD 1 and Abus Magomedov in RD 3, which aren’t the worst losses in hindsight. But I have durability questions about Ferreira, cardio questions, and more.

He still looked good against Petrosyan, landing some big shots early against the much longer fighter. Petrosyan also gave up a point on a foul, which changed the dynamics of the fight a bit.

Petrosyan looked like he was fully coming back but gave up a takedown late in the second round, and Ferreira jumped on his back and subbed him.

I know it’s not a decision but it’s still nice to see Ferreira produce offense past the first round. I still don’t necessarily trust him in extended fights but he can at least go through the motions past the first round and that’s a benefit for him of course.

Now Ferreira will be a massive favorite against McVey, who also has major red flags in extended fights. And in that sense, this is a great matchup for Ferreira.

It’s quite possible that of the two, Ferreira is the more likely fighter to have success past a round, and if McVey is truly limited to a quick submission, it will be a tough path to victory.

The good news for McVey is still the size. He’s 6’4” tall with a 77-inch reach, meaning he’ll be six inches taller than Ferreira with a five-inch reach advantage.

I do think he can have some success based on that frame. Maybe he can hurt Ferreira as he crashes the clinch, and maybe he can jump on a neck. I actually give him some chance as Ferreira’s profile is very fragile.

At the same time, Ferreira should be way more powerful. Much more likely to dish out damage. More experienced past a round. And he’s still a black belt in BJJ and likely the better wrestler of the two.

If McVey can’t jump on a choke quickly, I’d expect Ferreira to hurt him and/or take him down, and probably find an early finish. The fight is lined -1400 to end ITD and -255 to end in less than 1.5 rounds.

The only point I want to push is that McVey’s “unknowns” at least give him some hope of outperforming expectations, while we know Ferreira’s profile is fragile. If McVey’s cardio is good, for example, he’ll carry value in this matchup and his sub grappling is at least tricky enough to be a threat.

—

On DraftKings, Ferreira is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.7k, which is not a surprise.

I like Ferreira of course, but I still don’t think he’s a must at the price tag. The biggest benefit to Ferreira is that he might carry some Quick Win Bonus equity, though I never really factor that in.

Otherwise, he just needs a quick finish. Odds are very likely that does happen with a -500 ITD line, and I think 100-110 points is very realistic for Ferreira. In his other wins, he’s scored 94, 111, 117, and 109. That is great, but it still may not be enough to be optimal if we get lots of finishes elsewhere on the slate.

And of course, an extended fight may mean disaster for Ferreira.

So, Ferreira is going to rate out among the best options on the slate, but he’s tough to fit, and that should keep his ownership in check. I do think he wins this fight early, and I do think he puts up a strong score, so if I can afford him, he’ll be in strong consideration. He will still be popular-ish in a fight that’s -1400 to end inside the distance, given his history.

There are other fighters in this 9k range with elite ITD lines as well though, and they will be easier to fit. If I have the salary available to play Ferreira, great, I will strongly consider doing so. I’m not going to force him in though and I’d be fine to pivot off to another strong finishing option nearby.

McVey is a fine punt in my opinion at 6.5k.

I don’t think he’s good and I expect him to get finished early, but it’s also possible he’s undervalued based on the limited data we have.

We’ve already seen Ferreira KOd and subbed in the UFC, and if McVey wins, I would expect it to be a quick finish. He’s only +500 to win ITD but that’s an indication of being a huge underdog outright.

I don’t think he’s a super strong play, but McVey carries upside in his style, in this matchup, and should be heavy leverage against Ferreira. I’m willing to sprinkle him in personally in large fields, but he’s still a big dog and only a dart throw.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ferreira by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari

Fight Odds: Judice -318, Caliari +260

Odds to end ITD: +175

DraftKings Salaries: Judice 9.1k, Caliari 7.1k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a messy but potentially fun WMMA fight here between Carli Judice and Nicolle Caliari.

A Louisiana native, Judice is 4-2 professionally and is 26 years old. Judice fought on the Contender Series against Ernesta Kareckaite and was actually awarded a contract in a loss. She lost a back and forth split decision in a fight that generally played out on the feet. Judice actually landed a whopping 168 significant strikes in that fight but she absorbed 184 in return which isn’t great. Kareckaite is a decent fighter though so that performance can be viewed as positive.

Judice then took on Gabriella Fernandes in a fight that also took place on the feet. Judice again showed that grit and volume that she showed on the Contender Series. She actually outlanded Fernandes 169-119 in significant strikes but lost a split decision and Fernandes landed some decent power shots. Fernandes is a decent striker and did just club and sub Wang Cong, so again that close loss could also be viewed as a positive performance by Judice.

Judice then got an easy matchup against Yuneisy Duben and knocked her out in the first round. It was a good performance but Duben isn’t UFC level so I don’t read much into it. It was basically the equivalent of a regional win to me.

The rest of Judice’s career has taken place on the regional scene against poor competition. I haven’t really seen a ton of her ground game defensively or offensively so we are a bit blind in that regard. However, I don’t have a ton of faith in her offensive grappling in general.

Judice generally just looks to strike and I do like her aggressiveness and tenacity from an offensive striking perspective. She has some okay straight punches and seems tough with good cardio.

I still don’t actually think Judice is that skilled though and she is poor defensively. Judice is also just young and green, and I want to see more of her and how she develops and progresses.

Judice will be taking on Nicolle Caliari. Caliari is 8-3 professionally and booked her ticket to the UFC by submitting her opponent on the Contender Series.

Caliari actually comes from a kickboxing background but I don’t consider her output great. She has some decent striking technique and can throw some basic one two combinations.

I was expecting Caliari’s striking to look a bit better given her background. I also think she is a bit hittable on the feet. I also think she can get outworked at this level. I do think her striking looked okay against Kareckaite in her UFC debut though. Caliari landed some decent power shots and struck somewhat competitively on the feet with Kareckaite. Caliari was outlanded 95-67 but Caliari landed some hard strikes and stayed more competitive than I thought she would going into that fight.

Caliari actually likes to grapple a bit. I don’t consider her a very strong grappler, but I do think she is a bit physical and strong on the inside and can power some takedowns here and there against girls with weak TDD. She can occasionally hold top position too. She actually attempted 14 takedowns against Kareckaite and landed three. So at least Caliari was willing.

Caliari has three wins by submission and they actually all came in her last three wins. She submitted a BJJ black belt on the Contender Series but I wasn’t actually impressed with the armbar. You could see it coming from a mile away and I am shocked her opponent was caught with it. I don’t think Caliari’s offensive wrestling and grappling are awful or anything but I don’t think it is special at all.

Furthermore, I just have other concerns with Caliari. She is very small which will not help in the UFC. She also has weak takedown defense and can be held down on the mat herself.

As far as this matchup goes, this is pretty low level. On the feet, I do give Judice a mild edge as I like her output and size much more. Judice will have a 4-inch reach advantage and will have an output edge. These two also have a common striking opponent in Kareckaite. Kareckaite outlanded Judice 184-168 in significant strikes and outlanded Caliari 96-67 in significant strikes. Both fights were pretty competitive and went to split decisions. However, Judice probably performed a bit better against Kareckaite than Caliari did.

I still do expect the striking to be somewhat competitive here. Caliari swings pretty hard and Judice is just so hittable so I am pretty confident Caliari will land her shots here as well.

As far as the grappling goes, I do think Caliari has more takedown upside, just because of her willingness to grapple. So a couple of takedowns for Caliari wouldn’t surprise me. Judice probably won’t try to grapple even though I do think she could probably take and hold Caliari down to a degree. 

These women will probably strike mostly with some takedown attempts here and there. I honestly expect a somewhat competitive fight and do think the moneyline is a bit wide. I will lean Judice due to output and size. However, I expect this to be somewhat tight.

—

On DraftKings, Judice is somewhat intriguing but her price tag of 9.1k makes her tough to prioritize.

Simply put, Judice is never going to rate out well, but she falls into the bucket of fighters who have such high output ceilings that they can overperform expectations.

On DWCS, Judice landed 168 significant strikes in a loss. In her UFC debut, she landed 169 sig. strikes and two takedowns in a loss. In her most recent fight, she won by first round KO.

Judice isn’t very good at anything, but that type of offensive output is intriguing. She would have scored 113 in a decision win in that debut, for example. And she’s coming off the 107-point KO. She will never project for 150+ sig. strikes though, so if you want to play her, you have to hope for more “outlier” performances.

Against Caliari, I do think it’s possible. Caliari shouldn’t be able to keep up with the pace of Judice, so 120+ sig. strikes are definitely in play. Despite Caliari being a grappler, she doesn’t defend takedowns well either so if Judice can mix in two more, suddenly she’s viable.

It’s worth noting that 120 sig. strikes, two takedowns and four minutes of control time would still only put Judice in the mid-90s. She’s only +230 to win ITD and a finish doesn’t seem super likely.

Ehh, this one is tough. I honestly lean against playing Judice this week. I think she has a decent floor and I think she could score in the mid 90s, but is that going to be enough at 9.1k on a 14-fight slate? I’d guess not. And because Caliari grapples, there’s a bigger chance she can hold Judice down for a few minutes and limit that outlier potential.

I don’t hate the idea of mixing her in, but I’ll probably lean toward the finishers in this range, and I don’t mind coming in underweight on Judice.

Caliari at 7.1k feels like a good cash game or floor option.

She just landed three takedowns and 67 sig. strikes, and scored 52 in a loss. I’d take 40+ points at 7.1k in cash games and with this fight projected to go the distance at -215, I think that outcome is reasonable.

There is also a chance she lands three takedowns and wins two rounds, winning the fight. So a mid-80s score for Caliari is certainly in play in what is a low-level matchup.

At the same time, Judice is a lot bigger than Caliari and throws way more strikes. I don’t have a lot of faith in her and her wrestling is only mediocre. She’s not a priority to me.

I think Caliari is a fine, low-end secondary target this week. There are some fighters priced around her with more clear upside for sure, and probably more win equity as well. But there’s a decent chance Caliari puts up a nice floor in a loss and she also may get a competitive decision, so I wouldn’t want to write her off at 7.1k.

Not my favorite fight in the world here but I don’t mind the floor situation and pacing.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Judice by Decision (Confidence=Medium)