UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 (12/6/25)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan

Fight Odds: Dvalishvili -392, Yan +314

Odds to end ITD: +265

DraftKings Salaries: Dvalishvili 9.5k, Yan 6.7k

Weight Class: 135

A rematch for the bantamweight title, Merab Dvalishvili will look to continue his tear against former foe Petr Yan.

Dvalishvili and Yan last squared off in 2023, and Dvalishvili dominated him to a 50-45 victory that catapulted him into title contention.

I was originally going to give a round-by-round breakdown of that matchup but honestly, it’s not worth it. There’s not much analysis needed. What you need to know is that Merab attempted FORTY NINE (49) takedowns in 25 minutes, and despite having very limited control success with them, he kept Yan in defensive mode for the entirety of the fight.

On top of this, Merab attempted 401 total strikes to Yan’s 143 total strikes.

It was essentially one-way traffic by default. Yan is a really solid and technical boxer, but when you attempt 143 strikes in 25 minutes while your opponent attempts 401 strikes AND 49 takedowns, you’re not going to win.

I did find it interesting how little success Merab actually had with his wrestling though. He landed 11 takedowns officially for 6:53 of control, but the majority of the control success came in the clinch. There were very few times, essentially none, where Merab was on top of Yan on the mat.

In theory, that’s a path to victory for Yan. He did a really good job to defend takedowns outright (38/49) and limit the time he was flattened on his back. He then simply needs to outbox Merab as well.

Merab was throwing more at distance though, and that’s a really positive aspect to his game. He isn’t purely limited to wrestling and he still lands 4.33 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.55 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.

At distance, Merab is throwing the jab, and he’s throwing kicks. He’s being active. Yan is waiting around too much and he’s going to thrive more in the pocket. He can’t really contain the pocket because if they are close, Merab is just going to shoot takedowns and force Yan to wrestle.

Since then, Merab has looked exceptional, and has rattled off four championship wins with the most recent win including 20 takedowns against Corey Sandhagen. He’s only getting better.

Yan has looked decent as well, and has picked up three consecutive wins though over a worse level of competition, including Marcus McGhee, Deiveson Figueiredo and Song Yadong.

I don’t really see this rematch being a different dynamic than the first one. Yan is a superior technical boxer and he’s going to thrive on the inside, where he also carries power.

I also think Yan is going to perform well defensively. He’s hard to hit cleanly. He’s hard to take down. He’s hard to hold down.

But Merab is still likely to attempt a ton of takedowns. Maybe it’s not 49 but 25 is pretty realistic. He just attempted 37 against Sandhagen. He likely won’t hold Yan down for long periods of time but he can produce some offense via wrestling, and have some clinch control success, where he’s additionally landing better strikes.

At distance, I’d tell Yan he has to be more active. Merab is still going to throw a bunch of strikes and Yan has to match and exceed his pace. He has to hurt Merab most likely. Otherwise, the culmination of offense will just lead to Merab winning rounds again.

I just don’t fully know what Yan can do differently. Merab doesn’t really absorb a ton of strikes to the head and Yan tends to start slow, and his differential numbers are tighter than Merab’s.

So my best guess is we see this fight play out similarly to the first one. Yan should do a good job defensively but Merab will still land 5+ takedowns, earn some clinch control time, and be the more active party throughout. I wouldn’t be shocked to see competitive rounds but it’s difficult to predict Yan to cleanly win this fight unless he can badly hurt Merab in some boxing exchanges, which is a tough ask.

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On DraftKings, Merab will rate out as the top play on the board by a large margin per usual.

He’s coming off a massive 219.5 score which obviously broke the entire slate if you didn’t roster him. It’s one of the biggest DK scores of all-time, and it wasn’t even a complete surprise.

Merab has been the best fantasy scorer in the history of the sport, I believe, and has consistently put up insane numbers like 120, 119, 137, 167, 163, 148, 135 and the list goes on. He’s only +350 to win ITD here but it doesn’t matter at all.

In his last fight against Yan, Merab scored 167.2 which would project to be 40+ points ahead of the second highest scorer if he were to repeat it.

I do have some fight hesitations here with the fact that Yan defended ground control so well, but he ultimately got taken down 11 times and gave up more than eight minutes of control in the clinch. Along with 200+ total strikes, Merab was a smash. It does seem likely that he can mimic some of these numbers, and even if the ceiling isn’t the same, 120+ points is still very realistic.

You can argue that even at 9.5k, Merab is an outright priority due to this, and I don’t think it would be a bad strategy to force him in and build around it. Obviously the public ownership will follow and even on a 14 fight slate, it’s possible Merab clears 60 percent ownership.

At 9.5k, you can also argue it’s a tough sell historically. There’s another championship fighter in the 9k range who can smash too. Plenty of others have finishing equity on this slate. If Merab ONLY scores 118 let’s say… he could be beaten out by Pantoja straight up, and get priced off the optimal with finishes by Iwo, Duncan, and others. Due to that he is not a must.

The reality is, nobody can match the ceiling of Merab but hitting a ceiling isn’t a lock. At 9.5k there’s at least some wiggle room for things to go wrong, even in a fantastic result in a vacuum.

I will probably force Merab into cash games and he’s an elite small-field play. In a super large field, you’ll have a better chance to be unique without him and constructing some off lineups does make sense. He’s still probably best served as an overall priority on the slate given his fighting profile and the matchup.

Yan is priced down to 6.7k and will primarily rate out as a leverage target.

In his last loss to Merab, Yan scored 40.7 which isn’t terrible for the price, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he duplicated that. The issue is he doesn’t have a lot of ways to score. He could increase his volume a little bit but I doubt lots of additional takedowns come into play. He could win by KO but he’s only +800 to win ITD and it’s tough to project that.

I guess there’d be a small chance the stack could be optimal here if Yan can increase that 40 point score to 50 points, while Merab still wins. Maybe nobody below 7.7k wins the fight in which case 50 points from Yan in a loss is viable. It’s one way to play Merab without being chalky but I don’t recommend stacking on a large percentage of lineups, especially on a 14 fight slate.

Otherwise, you’re just hoping for a random KO I guess and therefore Yan would be optimal, and 60+ percent of the field would be dead. It’s one way to build that’s not ultra chalky so I don’t mind it as an occasional differentiator.

Yan is only a low-end/punt type of target though and rates out better for a bit of floor than a super realistic chance of winning. With a large portfolio he’s a fine sprinkle.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Merab by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van

Fight Odds: Pantoja -235, Van +197

Odds to end ITD: -165

DraftKings Salaries: Pantoja 9k, Van 7.2k

Weight Class: 125

I’ve been awaiting this flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van, and I think it’s very possible we’ll have a new champion on Saturday.

I wasn’t super high on Van as a prospect entering the UFC, but something clicked as I started to watch him compete inside the Octagon. He’s an aggressive, high-volume striker who builds momentum as the fight progresses, which is one of my favorite styles of fighting.

Van isn’t the biggest flyweight, but as he starts to close distance, he can completely wear opponents down with his pacing. He’ll get opponents backed up against the cage where he absolutely unloads combinations, attacking multiple levels which is another aspect of his game that I love. It’s resulted in a ton of action and a ton of wins.

However, there’s still the concern of his ground game, which wasn’t particularly strong entering the UFC and where I figured he would fall short at this level.

Felipe Bunes was able to take him down and briefly mount him in 2024, but Van escaped, and ultimately knocked Bunes out in the second round. Cody Durden took him down twice in the first round as well, but Van scrambled up and beat the crap out of him for the remainder of the fight.

Then Van fought Tsuruya who’s a Japanese wrestling prospect, and completely shut him down. Tsuruya was able to throw him on a few occasions, but Van defended 17/21 takedowns and only yielded 3:49 of control.

At that point, I went to Twitter to declare him a future champion. I’d seen enough. Sure, Tsuruya looks like a failed or simply inexperienced prospect but he is a good wrestler, and that was a great test for Van. We already know he’s fully capable of beating every fighter in this division on the right day in striking exchanges, and clearly, his grappling has improved as well.

Since that time, Van turned around quickly to knock out Bruno Silva, and most recently, he went to war with Brandon Royval, beating him over three rounds in an ultra-high paced striking affair. Now he gets the chance to take on Alexandre Pantoja.

I consider Pantoja the best fighter in this division currently. He’s a longtime veteran of the sport and has been in the UFC for eight years. Despite a couple of ups and downs, Pantoja has now rattled off eight straight wins and five straight championship wins.

He’s a solid muay-thai striker who can throw in volume, and compete well over the course of five rounds. He’s also one of the best back takers in the division, and has thrived combining his round-winning striking skills with wrestling.

Specifically, Pantoja has been wrestling in volume in his recent matchups. He averages 2.80 takedowns per 15 minutes but in his last five fights, he’s landed 6, 8, 9, 3 (in two rounds), and 3 (in three rounds).

In his two most recent fights, Pantoja has just taken his opponents down, taken their backs, and choked them out without much issue. He could do the same to Van.

Pantoja has an elite floor because he’s very good everywhere. He’s incredibly experienced in five round fights, with good cardio and durability. There’s nowhere that he’s an easy out.

However… I think Van is going to beat him if this fight plays out on the feet. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee or that it will come easily or quickly, but if Van can extend this fight and keep it upright, I’m picking him to win and potentially win convincingly.

Pantoja lands 4.36 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.88 per minute with a 49 percent defensive rate. Those are solid metrics, but he’s still generally competitive with a lot of guys. He was outlanded 128 to 104 at distance by Moreno, 91 to 74 at distance by Royval, and 107 to 96 at distance by Erceg.

Van lands 8.86 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 6.36 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. He’s coming off a win in which he landed 181 distance strikes in 15 minutes. We’ve also seen him land 97 in 14 minutes, 144 in 15 minutes, 109 in 15 minutes, and 153 in 15 minutes.

Van has never gone five rounds, but his cardio looks elite to me. Almost nobody can keep up with him in three rounds, and good luck doing so in five rounds. The fight against Tsuruya proved that even a high pace of wrestling won’t exhaust him, and I just feel he’s going to thrive in championship rounds.

Van has been knocked out once though, by Charles Johnson in 2024. Van was having success in that fight but he was hurt and TKOd. He could get hurt and TKOd again, even by Pantoja.

Like I said, he tends to build in fights, meaning he often has to defend more early, and take over slowly but surely. I don’t think he immediately comes into this matchup and stomps Pantoja and even on the feet, I think Pantoja will compete just fine early.

But if Van can extend this fight and keep it upright, he will build, and his volume will take over. He will land the more damaging shots and I think do enough to get his hand raised.

Can he stop Pantoja’s wrestling though? I don’t have a definitive answer. Pantoja is a really good wrestler and grappler, and I’d have to project him to land some takedowns.

Early on, I think it’s pretty likely that Pantoja can take him down. Maybe he just takes the back and finishes the fight. It wouldn’t be out of the question. Pantoja is that good.

I’ve seen enough from Van to believe he can survive some initial exchanges though. He can defend some takedowns outright. He can scramble up if he has to. If Pantoja is not on his back, it won’t matter. Pantoja basically has to get him down, get the back take, and control him for stretches or lock up the submission.

It’s very fair to suggest Pantoja is capable of this, and that it’s a step up in competition for Van. He might just not be ready for this level of competition.

It’s possible I’m just too biased here but I have some faith that Van can survive. He’ll probably get threatened early but I’ve liked his scrambling ability, and in this particular matchup I worry for Pantoja that if he can’t secure the back, he might be screwed..

I’m going to pick Van to win. I think the public is underestimating just how insanely tough of a striking matchup he is over five rounds, and I think a RD3-5 TKO is on the table for Van as well. This is a great test and matchup regardless and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.

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On DraftKings, this is probably my favorite fight on the entire slate given the pacing both guys set.

Regardless of whether I think the betting line should be tighter, which I do, if Pantoja wins, I am guessing he will smash. He’ll need to produce a ton of offense to win and I think a large bulk of it will come on the mat.

We’ve already seen Pantoja 143 on three consecutive occasions against Moreno, Royval and Erceg, and I think that type of performance is very much in play. Even if he doesn’t win ITD, Pantoja probably lands 5+ takedowns with 8+ minutes of control, and 80+ significant strikes in a decision which would equate to 100+.

He is also -115 to win ITD here and a finish is also realistic in a win. I worry about a finish a little bit because in his last two finishes, Pantoja scored 95 and 103. I would bet on those scores NOT being optimal on this slate. Therefore playing Pantoja in a win still isn’t a must.

Those last two opponents offered nothing though. They landed a combined 50 strikes in five rounds of action and gave up takedowns and back takes too easily. I think Van will force more action out of Pantoja.

Still, there’s a chance that Pantoja wins on the mat, only scores 100ish and is not optimal. I would prioritize Merab over Pantoja straight up due to the insanely elite ceiling he carries. I also think playing Merab + Pantoja together in tournament lineups is very reasonable as both could easily clear 120 in wins and be optimal.

That type of construction will be chalky, so you’ll have to think hard about where else to go with your lineups. But I would not avoid those combinations personally because both fighters rate out among the very best on this slate.

Obviously I think Van is live to win, so I’m going to have a fair amount of exposure to him at 7.2k.

At this price, any kind of win puts him in contention for the optimal. I actually think this isn’t the most ideal matchup for Van from a fantasy sense as he might not wrestle and could be controlled on the mat. But even if he scores 80 points at this price tag you’re going to be happy, and 100+ is very much in play.

Van has also scored 122 and 132 in his last two three round wins, so his ceiling over five rounds is truly elite in the right circumstance. I also think he has knockout equity here and is +425 to win ITD.

Of course I will be playing Van + Merab combos which will probably also be popular, but I can’t avoid them.

I’m not as sure about the stack here, as I mentioned with Yan and Merab above. There are more ways for Pantoja to miss the optimal in a win versus Merab in a win, and more ways for Van to be shut out in a loss versus Yan.

But I have to note that Pantoja allowed more than 85 points to Moreno in a five round loss… he allowed more than 55 points to Royval in a loss and the same with Erceg. In part because he allows reversals at a high rate.

So maybe the stack here is viable. Or Van in a loss is viable even if Pantoja is not optimal in a win. I wouldn’t normally play into it as much but I’m not in love with the bottom tier this week, and I do love the pacing here.

I also think Van can win outright and consider him a strong secondary target at worst, but potentially among the top overall dogs on this slate, and someone who I wouldn’t mind being overweight to personally.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Van by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira

Fight Odds: Taira -119, Moreno +102

Odds to end ITD: +240

DraftKings Salaries: Taira 8.5k, Moreno 7.7k

Weight Class: 125

The former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno will take on a potential future champion in Tatsuro Taira, in what should be an awesome scrap.

I’ve been a big fan of Moreno for years, and I still consider him among the best fighters in this division today. He could beat any 125er on the planet on any given day.

Moreno is very well-rounded, a high-paced striker and a strong wrestler and grappler as well. He lands 3.96 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.62 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate.

Moreno is ultra-tough, and despite taking damage over the years, he’s never been finished in the UFC. He’s gone to war over five rounds against Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo, and most recently has picked up a couple of main event victories against Brandon Royval and Amir Albazi.

Moreno also lands 1.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 64 percent. He’s a skilled submission grappler and has already defended against the likes of Pantoja and others.

Moreno is simply a very tough out in this division. On the feet, you’re going to have to beat him in a brawl which is tough. He can give up the occasional takedown but isn’t easy to hold down, and has wrestling equity there too.

He’ll be looking to stop Tatsuro Taira this weekend who is coming off a smash performance over HyunSung Park in August, where he took Park down four times, knocked him down and subbed him in the first round.

Prior to that, Taira suffered his first professional defeat to Brandon Royval in what was a competitive five-round decision.

I’ve been lower than the public on Taira a bit, and I probably will be again this week. I do think he’s a really talented fighter and a potential future champ, but I still think he has a lot to prove.

Despite the recent breakthrough win over Park, I don’t think Park offers a whole lot, and we successfully bet against Park in his next fight as a big favorite over Bruno Silva, who submitted him as well.

It just continues the cloud of questionable competition that Taira has faced thus far. His best win is arguably over Alex Perez who was in proper Perez fashion, was winning the fight early until Taira blew out his knee in the second round on a back take.

Otherwise, Taira has beaten Edgar Chairez, Carlos Hernandez, and others not worth naming. Brandon Moreno is like five levels ahead of these guys.

Taira is skilled though, primarily as a back taker. He lands 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and is pretty physical, and among the best back takers in the division alongside Pantoja. He took Royval down six times and earned 12 minutes of control, despite the loss.

On the feet, Taira is fine but he hasn’t been able to separate there. He lands 2.87 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.54 per minute with a 47 percent defensive rate.

He looked awesome in a few exchanges last time out but he got outlanded 97 to 38 at distance by Royval which is a big problem. He’s also been dropped by Chairez, and I just have concerns with his volume and general level of competition.

Especially in a five round fight, and against someone like Moreno, I’d be really worried for Taira at distance. Moreno is far more experienced and far more active, and Taira hasn’t proven he can keep up with these guys standing.

This is a three round fight though, which gives me pause, and I think it actually benefits Taira a lot. I’d favor Moreno much more over five rounds where Taira would have to take him down over and over, take his back over and over, and I’d have to favor the cardio of Moreno late.

In a three round fight, I think there’s a much better chance the fight is simply competitive. Taira can land some takedowns, maybe take the back, and all he needs is a couple of close rounds to win.

The point remains the same. At distance, Taira is landing 4.2 strikes per minute while absorbing 5.7. Moreno is landing 4.8 while absorbing 4.4. Rounds could be competitive on the feet but Moreno will push a higher pace, land more strikes and is more likely to do damage.

I went back and watched Moreno vs. Pantoja two to see how Moreno performed on the mat there, and I honestly didn’t love it. In particular, I thought Moreno gave up soft takedowns. He defended only 5/11 takedowns and gave up his back a couple of times. At no point was Pantoja anywhere close to finishing him, but it gives me a little bit of pause because I think Taira can likely take him down.

If he can, back takes are definitely in play and at this point I have to project that to happen. Tim thinks a little more highly of Moreno’s back defense in that fight than I do, but from a projection standpoint, I have to assume Taira will shoot 5+ times and I wouldn’t be surprised if he landed a few.

With those few takedowns, Moreno could easily give up his back 1-2 times. I wouldn’t be surprised if he shut out Taira completely there, and without back takes, Taira doesn’t offer a whole lot. But I do respect his transition game and I think it’s possible he earns mat control time.

It could just lead to close rounds. I don’t think Taira is finishing Moreno, but my guess is he has one strong grappling round with some control, and if Moreno doesn’t push his foot on the gas pedal in striking exchanges (which we’ve seen before), then I worry rounds might just be tight.

I have to favor Moreno here overall though. He’s a better striker and more likely to win minutes on the fight. He has real pullaway ability there when he’s at his best. I don’t really trust Taira to wrestle dominate him on the mat, and additionally, Moreno has some takedown upside where he could find his way to top position.

I think the public is overvaluing Taira’s wrestling game based on his weak competition, and undervaluing Moreno a bit. But with only three rounds to work, I still feel a competitive fight is likely and I’d only make Moreno a small favorite personally.

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On DraftKings, I’m probably aiming to fade Taira or come in super light on him this week at 8.5k.

It’s not to say that he can’t win the fight and with a win, it will come with grappling success. However, the fight is still -300 to go the distance which is also an indication of how difficult Moreno is to finish.

Taira is a popular name and priced cheaply, so I’m hoping he gets some public love. Coming off a dominant 112 point win, Taira certainly has upside on paper.

I think he’s a better floor play than ceiling play though. Although I can see him landing a few takedowns and earning some control, he’s not a guarantee to land lots of ground-and-pound, and he’s only +375 to win ITD.

Perhaps it’s only a hope, but I hope Moreno can give him enough of a test to win a round, limit Taira’s ground dominance, and get him under 100 DK points. This is a huge 14 fight slate and I doubt 90-100 points is enough.

With that said, if Taira wins, takedowns and control will come into play, and him surpassing 90 points wouldn’t be a shock. He’s not a bad play. I just don’t think this is a great matchup for him on paper to dominate and if he’s semi-popular, I’d rather lean underweight.

Moreno at 7.7k interests me a little bit but the problem is he’s not likely to smash in a win.

Especially if you assume Taira likely wants to grapple, and Moreno likely wants to strike, we could easily see Moreno land 60-80 sig. strikes in a win and score in the mid 60s on DK. Additional takedowns could get him into the 70s or 80s.

He’s also only +500 to win ITD which is terrible and doesn’t indicate much of a finishing threat. I do think he has KD upside but it’s hard to bet on, and Taira will limit exchanges.

So I’m honestly considering not being high on Moreno either, hoping he draws some attention as another big name, in a matchup that just doesn’t set up super well from a fantasy sense.

At 7.7k, I’d still label Moreno as a fine secondary option. I think he can win the fight and he saves some money. I am not betting on a huge ceiling though, and that will keep my ownership generally limited.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Moreno by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott

Fight Odds: Talbott -257, Cejudo +214

Odds to end ITD: +160

DraftKings Salaries: Talbott 9.2k, Cejudo 7k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a classic prospect vs veteran matchup here as Payton Talbott will take on Henry Cejudo in what is Cejudo’s supposed retirement fight (again).

Talbott had a lot of hype that was derailed after losing as a monster favorite against Raoni Barcelos, but he then bounced back as an underdog and won a decision against Felipe Lima. I have generally been a supporter of Talbott’s talent and I picked him for the upset in that fight.

Talbott booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating Reyes Cortes Jr. on the Contender Series. Talbott landed 145 significant strikes in that fight, attempted 282, and defended 16 of 17 takedowns. Talbott then made his UFC debut in a favorable matchup against grappling dependent fighter Nick Aguirre. Despite being taken down early, Talbott weathered the storm and eventually tired Aguirre out and finished him on the mat with a RNC.

Talbott then absolutely dominated Cameron Saaiman and landed 79 significant strikes before securing the knockout in round two. His volume, striking, pace, and power were impressive. He then knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri in 19 seconds in a bit of a softball matchup.

You saw Talbott’s skillset in all of those wins. He is a striker. He is tall and long at 5’10” and will push a relentless pace on the feet. He walks his opponents down and really throws everything at them. He will mix in a lot of straight punches, stabbing kicks to the body. He is a good athlete and has power as well. I do think his defense could use some work, but his offense is good and his pace is tremendous.

Talbott is a bit green though, and you have seen it in some of his grappling exchanges, even in fights that he has won. I have seen him taken down, body triangled, and just put in some overall bad positions. I do think good grapplers can continue to have their way with him.

However, I actually don’t think Talbott is all that easy to grapple. He is a really good athlete and he is capable at giving up his back and scrambling up to his feet. You need to have good mat returns or a good body triangle to keep him down. Barcelos had that so Talbott got put in very bad positions in their fight. Talbott still did work up in that fight but Barcelos attempted 15 takedown attempts and landed 8, and just pushed a tremendous pace.

Talbott at least understands the concept of not accepting bottom position, and I really think if people don’t have good mat returns, he will generally get up or try to. That is why I liked him to beat Lima which ended up working out. Lima landed 3/15 takedowns and only obtained 3:23 of control.

Talbott will be taking on former double champion Henry Cejudo. I have actually never had to write Cejudo up before which is odd, but makes sense given he retired for a few years so I have never really given my opinion on him.

I personally think Cejudo has always been an overrated fighter and his wins have aged terribly. The Demetrious Johnson win was a great win but I honestly didn’t even think he deserved it and in the new damage vs control scoring criteria era, I don’t think the judges would have given Cejudo that.

His only other wins have been an old Dominick Cruz, a terrible Marlon Moraes, and a quick knockout against TJ Dillashaw. Look at his other wins, you won’t even know some of the guys… Dustin Kimura, Chris Cariaso, Wilson Reid, and Chico Camus.. I mean come on. I am not saying Cejudo is bad, I am just saying he is by far the worst double champ we have seen and I think he got extremely lucky to get a bantamweight title fight against Marlon Moraes. I don’t think Cejudo could have ever worked his way up the bantamweight division and won the title in the traditional sense.

Having said all of that, I want to make it very clear how much I respect Cejudo as a competitor. He is EXTREMELY tough and is honestly an overachiever and I mean that as a compliment. He finds ways to compete and sometimes win. Even as a freestyle wrestler, Cejudo was not even expected to make the Olympic team in 2008 and somehow he won the gold medal which was a MINDBLOWING upset at the time. 

To put it into context, Cejudo took 31st at the 2007 world championships which was 10 months before the Olympics. Going onto win the gold less than a year later was crazy and is a tribute to Cejudo’s competitive spirit and perseverance. No one believed he could win except him.

As an MMA fighter, Cejudo is a wrestle-boxer. He is an okay striker and lands 3.82 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.46 in return. He has some decent hands and okay pop, and can mix in the occasional low kicks. He has a little speed too. He isn’t all that skilled offensively though. I think he does a decent job defending strikes though and I think he is just tough and a competitor more than anything.

Cejudo is obviously a capable wrestler and lands 1.84 takedowns per 15 minutes. He hasn’t really dominated with his wrestling though but I actually want to defend him. His last four fights have come against Dominick Cruz, Aljamain Sterling, Merab, and Song Yadong. Those four guys are REALLY difficult to wrestle successfully against. Cejudo had some success too. He landed three takedowns on Sterling and even wrestled Merab successfully in round one and took the round which is impressive. 

I don’t fully trust Cejudo as a tenacious grappler as he is 38 years old and he isn’t really a back taker. I don’t think he is a dominant MMA grappler. However, I do think Cejudo’s wrestling may be underrated going into this matchup vs Talbott. Although Talbott isn’t a terrible defensive grappler, I think Talbott is the worst defensive grappler, especially at defending takedowns, that Cejudo has fought in years.

I absolutely think Cejudo can land takedowns here. Talbott conceded 8 takedowns to Barcelos and 3 to Lima. To be fair, those guys attempted 15 takedowns each on Talbott but Talbott does concede takedowns. Cejudo is a lot shorter here and I do think he will get in on the hips and land a few takedowns. I honestly think that makes Cejudo live.

The issue for Cejudo is he isn’t dominant on the mat. He doesn’t take the back and put in body triangles which is generally the way Talbott gets held down. Perhaps I am underrating Cejudo’s top control because Cejudo has fought guys like Aljo and Merab recently. However, I do tend to think Talbott can probably work up here and there.

On the feet, I definitely favor Talbott. He is way longer than Cejudo and throws more volume. I do think Cejudo can compete on the feet though and evade. I do understand favoring Talbott just because he is the better striker here and could win on damage and volume. Picking Talbott makes total sense.

I still think Cejudo is tough though and I think he is going to compete here and that this will be a competitive fight. My gut tells me we get striking exchanges where Talbott is winning but Cejudo’s takedown threat and evasiveness is keeping it from being a blowout and minimizing the offense of Talbott to a degree. Then Cejudo will land some takedowns and obtain mild control a few times.

That just makes this a competitive fight in my mind. I have always been lower on Cejudo than the public but I do think this line is far too wide and I think we could have a really close decision on our hands here. I am going to pick Cejudo here just because I think this should be a far more competitive line.

—

On DraftKings, I’m only interested in Cejudo as an underdog and honestly not super interested in either side of the matchup.

Talbott rates out pretty close to a fade for me at 9.2k, and I’d rather just hope the public plays into him a bit then try to be cute here.

It’s a terrible matchup for him to score fantasy points – similar to Ian Garry last week but with respect to the field, they were on it and Garry was largely unowned. We might see the same thing here and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Talbott sub 15 percent owned.

I do think he probably wins, and he has the style to produce some points. But Cejudo isn’t going to brawl or absorb strikes at a high rate, and Cejudo has a clear wrestling advantage. Talbott has to knock him out early to reach a ceiling and even if he does, there’s still a major question mark as to whether he could be optimal in a stacked range.

Talbott is also only +200 to win ITD, and I’d honestly say that’s too high for my liking. Cejudo is super tough to finish.

At best, Talbott is a contrarian play this week and possibly works better under the assumption the champions lose. Either way, I just can’t bet on a quick KO here and would rather pay up or down to superior ceiling targets with easier paths.

Cejudo is more viable at 7k and he’s worth some consideration.

I have some real concerns about his form and I don’t really trust him to win here. He’s six inches behind in height and reach and will throw less volume. It’s not a great matchup for him to land a lot of strikes or win by TKO.

He needs to wrestle I think, and that he can do. He is coming off a loss to Song Yadong though where he went 0/3 and kind of accepted the defeat. Talbott just gave up three takedowns to Felipe Lima and prior to that got ragdolled by Barcelos. It’s worth noting Barcelos is a better sub grappler than Cejudo and was taking his back there where Cejudo isn’t much of a back taker.

Either way, if Cejudo pursues a wrestling attack he can potentially win. He could land 3+ takedowns and make a couple of rounds competitive. At 7k you have to consider it.

I still only view Cejudo as a low-end target. His floor isn’t great. He doesn’t have much finishing equity at +675 to win ITD. He could surpass 80 points with some takedowns though.

I’d like a bit of exposure to Cejudo. I think you have to cover your base here just given the wrestling equity and his Olympic pedigree. Even in a loss he could land some takedowns and score 30-40 points.

But I’m not excited to be in on Cejudo and I’ll likely just aim to be near the field overall to cover the spot.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Talbott by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov

Fight Odds: Blachowicz -125, Guskov +107

Odds to end ITD: -170

DraftKings Salaries: Blachowicz 8.4k, Guskov 7.8k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Jan Blachowicz is one of the better underdog stories in the modern era as he started out his UFC run 2-4 on the verge of being released from the promotion but he then went on to win 7 of his following 8 bouts, eventually winning the title back in 2020. However, we’re now in 2025 where Jan is 42 years old and coming off back to back losses – he’s 12-8-1 in the UFC and 29-11-1 as a pro. Bogdan Guskov bypassed the Contender Series, getting his ticket into the UFC by taking a short notice fight against Volkan Oezdemir which didn’t go well. But he’s since gone on to win his last 4 fights now, finding himself in the top 10 – he’s 18-3 as a pro. 

The striking component: 

Jan’s striking has always been interesting to analyze as he’s not really the guy pushing a crazy pace over the duration of his fights (in the aggregate).   

He lands 3.4 SLpM at 49% and 4.5 DLpM at 45%. However, he hits hard and has 5 KOs on the rap sheet.   

In general, he works a more tepid kickboxing-based style – good jab, sound hook game, kicks well and counters effectively.   

Defensively, he’s had some struggles over the years, only defending significant strikes at 53% but if you look at his distance defense, he defends at 60% — pretty different number.   

He also only absorbs 3.4 distance strikes per minute so in the aggregate, he does suppress volume well.   

If those numbers aren’t convincing to his caliber, he outlanded Adesanya at distance who is one of the better overall strikers we’ve seen at the bigger weight classes – yes Izzy’s a 185er but Izzy is actually taller and longer than Jan which needs to be said. 

He also gave Ankalaev arguably his toughest fight to date (to that time) and nearly finished him with leg kicks.   

Even in his last few bump backs against Pereira and Ulberg where he was ultimately worked, they were still pretty tight fights.

Overall, Jan has proven his worth as an upper tier striker in the division

I’m unsure of Guskov’s background but his primary successes have come as a striker.    

He moves relatively well for a bigger guy but also fights cocky with his hands down with his primary line of defense being to slip/roll punches.      

That’s largely worked out for him because he hasn’t been facing the fastest guys or quality competition in general though.      

However, the 1st reputable guy he fought in Vasilevskiy back in 2020 was able to land the jab on him with consistency and eventually find the kill shot with the right in the 1st round.      

Outside of that fight regionally, he’s been the slicker boxer who’s been able to chip away at his opponents or just generally blast them early. He definitely passes as more of a KO artist with 15 of his 18 pro wins coming via strikes – 12 of which within the 1st round.      

But as noted, he hasn’t really fought guys that have been able to test him much on the feet in the aggregate, so he’s been able to have his way.      

However, when he fought another better guy in his debut in Oezdemir, he was clearly at a disadvantage and Oezdemir made him pay for his poor defensive tendencies,dropping him in the 1st.  The early minutes against Pauga were competitive as both guys landed some clean shots, but Guskov found the chin three minutes in. He ate some clean shots from Spann but took the shots well and was eventually able to hurt him with an uppercut right hand combo putting him down in the 2nd. 

Most recently, he put Krylov down who’s more of a grappler and didn’t fight an optimal gameplan.     

Overall, Guskov has an awkward style, decent hand speed and power for the division which will get him UFC wins in what is a shallow 205 lb. division, but it’s hard to make out his ceiling until he shows something against a better level of striker.

How it plays out: The striking is interesting as both guys aren’t volume machines and have some attributes that can give trouble to the other – namely speed and fluidity on the Guskov side and then the counter boxing and leg kicks on the Jan side. Guskov probably bring more power at this point but Jan is more durable despite his age. I lean Jan.  

The wrestling/grappling component: 

Jan is a BJJ black belt but not a guy who’s been known for his offensive wrestling over the years, landing 1 TD per 15 minutes at 48%.   

Albeit sparingly, the ground has aided in some past victories against Izzy, Krylov, Cannonier and Clark. In the times he’s been able to get into top position, he’s been strong there and does have an underrated submission game.   

Defensively, he stuffs at 69% which is respectable but his bottom game has been the main hole in his game in his wider past. 

You’ve got to go back a bit but he was outwrestled in the 1st Anderson fight, Gustafsson and Cummins fights.   

He’ll look to attack from bottom with armbars and can have an active guard (at times) but it’s been his general get up game that has been lacking and he’s been grinded out in the past.  We saw Rakic control him for the near entirety of the 2nd round as well.  

But over the years, his TDD had clearly leveled up significantly, stuffing all TDs from Clark, Rockhold and Jacare.   

But against Glover, he really struggled and couldn’t work up from the TDs ultimately getting submitted.  

It’s important to note that in the fights where Jan is trying to counter wrestle, he’s gotten very tired and Ankalaev punished him down the stretch a few fights back. 

Overall, the ground has been up and down for Jan. 

Guskov is a more recently crowned BJJ brown belt but only reps 3 submission wins on his record.    

He doesn’t shoot very often but has landed some TDs here and there. When he gets on top, it’s primarily from hurting guys or guys shooting on him to which he muscles his way into top position. The guys he’s bested on the ground have been bums but he has shown good GNP capabilities when he’s gotten there with a handful of finishes coming via the method.      

His TDD isn’t very good though and he’s gotten his back taken before and mounted on a few occasions to boot.     

We saw Oezdemir best him on the ground in his debut where the 1st TD came relatively easy despite Guskov eventually working up – he gave up the mount quickly though after he was hurt on the 2nd ground sequence. Oezdemir’s a good fighter but a base striker and that was only his 2nd pro win via submission which wasn’t the greatest look for the “Brown Belt” of Guskov.     

Guskov was able to stay upright on the few halfhearted TDAs from Pauga. 

He got dominated through the early minutes against Spann where he got his back taken but did fight hands well to avoid RNC attempts. He made it out of the 1st then started stuffing in the 2nd as Spann’s shots became more labored. 

Pretty similar story against Elekana where he got taken down early, got his back taken, controlled for the majority of the 1st round but fought hands and eventually reversed position later in the round to threaten himself – he then grabbed a gilly against the fence against a gassed out Elekana. 

Overall, Guskov has shown he’s capable of surviving bad positions but I still don’t like his traditional TDD and his tendencies to give the back at the end of the day. He’s also not a good conventional/consistent wrestler overall to where he’ll be at a ground liability in certain matchups – unless he’s facing an incapable opponent with bad gas.

How it plays out: I don’t think the ground comes much into play here and both guys haven’t been great on the bottom. I’d probably still lean Jan in terms of maybe mixing it up and having better raw TDD.

Funky fight. Despite Guskov’s recent run, I’m still not fully sold on him as a talent as it relates to the upper tiers of this division. On the flip, while Jan has shown he can still compete with the upper tier of this division, it’s hard to ignore that he’ll be turning 43 in just a couple months. It’s these escalator types of spots where the younger guy usually comes through but I’m still leaning towards Jan given the step up in competition and some of the style dynamics.

—

On DraftKings, this is a classic, silly, LHW boom or bust matchup that I’m going to stress over too much.

The fight itself is only -170 to end inside the distance which is extremely scary, as is the fact the fight is -130 to go Over 2.5 rounds. For a boom or bust matchup like this one, it certainly seems like the chances of a “bust” are more likely than not.

But you never know, and either man could hurt the other early. If either can, the winner could end up optimal in the mid-range.

Blachowicz is priced at 8.4k and I guess I lean against playing a lot of him. He’s only +190 to win ITD and he hasn’t recorded a knockdown in any of his last six fights. He’s knocked out two of his past nine opponents.

Mostly, I just fear Blachowicz would prefer to extend the fight. Play it safe, use his counters. He might run into something but a decision would be totally acceptable for him, and therefore he carries extreme risk.

If you have any sizable portfolio, playing Jan around the field makes sense. If forced to choose, I’d aim to be light on him and hope the fight extends into the second round of which there’d be no guarantee he’d be optimal even with a finish.

With that said, I’m going to project him to be low owned, potentially even sub 15 percent owned with leverage against Guskov. That additional context makes him a better tournament target in a vacuum but it’s still difficult to trust he’ll hit a ceiling here.

Guskov is priced at 7.8k and probably the more fantasy friendly target.

I think he’s a little more likely to win ITD quickly, and he’s also +175 to win ITD at a cheaper price tag. I don’t think Guskov is a great talent but he’ll at least go for the finish.

I still don’t think he’s particularly likely to win and I’m not aiming to be high on Guskov, but given his early KO equity, he’s a viable tournament target with upside. I do expect him to be owned more than Blachowicz straight up at a cheaper price tag, but playing him near the field is the safest strategy.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blachowicz by Decision (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres

Fight Odds: Dawson -216, Torres +182

Odds to end ITD: -550

DraftKings Salaries: Dawson 8.9k, Torres 7.3k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have one of the more binary fights that you will ever see between the very good grappler in Grant Dawson and the early blitz striking of Manuel Torres.

Volume wrestling is obviously Dawson’s strength. He lands 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 12 takedowns per fight. He also has generally had cardio to keep up that high volume style so he can break opponents with his pace.

Dawson’s ground-and-pound is good. He landed plenty against Erosa, Santos, Minner, and Garcia. He won’t just lay in guard and is always thinking about ways to score. 

I also think Dawson is an underrated submission grappler. He is a BJJ black belt and consistently passes guard. He also has a super powerful back mount. Just go watch his fight against Erosa and Trizano and you will see what I am talking about. He finished Trizano from that position and kept threatening Erosa with it. It is something I noticed with him early in his career and I do think he will continue to occasionally get finishes from that position. He also got the RNC vs Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen.

I just like that Dawson uses body triangles as well too. He is very efficient at taking the back and putting in his body triangle. In his win vs Ismagulov, Dawson scored 1 takedown at the beginning of each round, popped in the body triangle, and held position for the remainder of each round. Every single round in that fight basically looked identical. It is also good that Dawson knows what to do in his fights to win. He has never really deviated from his path to victory of grappling in any UFC fight.

Dawson’s striking is definitely his weakness. He lands 3.20 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.11 in return. His metrics are actually decent but it is padded by his ground-and-pound. His striking is a means to an end more than anything. He wants to limit engagements just to land takedowns. Good strikers who can keep fights standing vs Grant will definitely school him.

Overall though, Dawson is just going to rack up a lot of wins in the UFC as he has been doing. He is a very good wrestler and submission grappler and never deviates from his path to victory. His game is consistent and reliable. He will probably get knocked out again at some point like he did against Green. However, he will generally win far more often than he loses because he tends to wrestle early and often.

Dawson will be taking on Manuel Torres. I have always been extremely skeptical of Torres.

Torres is a Mexican fighter who fights out of the same camp as Brandon Moreno. Torres is 16-3 with 15 first round finishes, Most of his wins on the regionals have actually come by submission. He was even submitted by kneebar in round 1 in one of the regional fights that I have found. These are really tough fighters to trust. His cardio is unknown, and even his skillset is unknown. Generally, these fighters tend to be bad more often than good. However, there are some outliers so it is tough to know.

Torres made his UFC debut against Frank Camacho in 2022. He aggressively bullied Camacho on the feet and landed a knockout in round 1 while landing 34 significant strikes. The performance did not show me much, but it at least shows me that Torres is aggressive and can hurt people, especially early.

Torres then fought Nikolas Motta. He actually got tagged easily by Motta a couple of times and was bleeding in the nose and mouth area. It was kind of a bad look for Torres. Then Torres landed one of the nastiest elbow knockouts in 2023. The fight only took place for 2 minutes.

Then Torres fought Chris Duncan. Torres got hurt on literally the first exchange. The two then clinched up sloppily and traded some knees and sloppy takedown attempts. Torres then entered a pretty sloppy takedown, got the back, and submitted Chris Duncan. It was a very odd exchange and I honestly wasn’t all that impressed.

All those performances tell me is that Torres is a pretty dangerous guy but that he probably has holes, especially in extended fights.

Then Torres fought Ignacio Bahamondes at the Sphere. The fight was pretty uneventful early with Torres being the aggressor. Torres was then dropped badly and later knocked out. I picked Bahamondes as a dog in that fight as I didn’t trust Torres in extended fights and still don’t. After that fight Torres knocked out Drew Dober quickly.

I honestly still want to see more of Torres. I still haven’t even really seen him in an extended fight. It wasn’t like he got absolutely exposed against Bahamondes. Torres just got hurt with a big shot. However, it doesn’t give me much confidence in his durability at all.

I honestly don’t even know what Torres’ primary skillset or gameplan is. I am going to guess he will look to strike or just be aggressive early like he was against Camacho and Motta. Whatever happens after that is tough to know. I don’t know anything about his defensive grappling or cardio really at this point. He does have a guillotine that he likes and he has submitted people with it on the regionals. 

This fight is easy and hard to call at the same time. Torres comes out like a bat out of hell and I don’t think he can keep that pace up for more than 5 minutes or so without slowing down. Even Torres’ grappling exchanges are all explosion based and show little technique. The Duncan fight was kind of ridiculous to watch seeing some of the throws and get ups he was doing.

I think Torres is likely going to try to kill Dawson early. It may work and I honestly could see Torres knocking Dawson out while Dawson attempts a takedown, or if Dawson panics due to Torres’ aggression. Torres is a massive hitter and he is big. I don’t think it is out of the question here at all.

The issue is I really don’t think Torres is going to win the fight if he doesn’t get that early finish. I feel like if Torres gets taken down, he will probably get schooled or tire himself trying to explode out. Torres’ defensive grappling and cardio are a bit of unknowns but I feel pretty skeptical of his technique and I think a guy like Dawson should have a pretty massive grappling edge on him. I also just can’t see how Torres can explode the way he does without slowing down moderately at the very least.

Dawson is also BY FAR the best grappler and smartest grappler that Torres has faced. Dawson has some of the best fight IQ in the sport and he openly talks about how he will never even test his striking. Dawson knows that wrestling pays his bills. I think he will do his homework on how to best approach his early takedown entries and grapple to safety. He is definitely in danger early but I do think more often than not, Dawson gets his early takedown and neutralizes the early threat of Torres. 

I doubt Torres will survive either. My guess is Dawson wrestles to safety early and then eventually pours it on and gets a mid to late round stoppage.

—

On DraftKings, this is one of the fights I want to be in on and I’m hoping it gets slightly overlooked with the strength of the slate.

Looking into the matchup more, I pretty much agree with Tim and I think Torres either wins by early KO, or he gets drowned on the mat. I also think Dawson’s clear grappling and edge in an extended fight makes him a sizable favorite in totality.

Dawson is priced at 8.9k and he’ll be someone I’ll aim to be moderately invested in. It’s difficult with Duncan and Iwo and Pantoja and Merab, and others in the top tier who are worth exposure. But that’s hopefully why Dawson may be overlooked a tad, and I’m going to project him to be owned in the mid to upper 20s.

Dawson has scored 129, 114 and 108 in his last three fights, so honestly, maybe he won’t be overlooked. But regardless, he has a recipe to score well as a win for him is likely grappling domination. I also think he can win ITD here and he is -135 to finish.

I like plenty of fighters in the 8k range but Dawson is definitely one of them. I think he has a style and matchup to potentially dominate on the mat and top 100 DK points. At 8.9k I feel like moderate exposure and being overweight potentially is the right call.

Torres is a strong underdog play on paper at 7.3k and someone I’ll have to roster alongside the field.

While I don’t love this matchup for him at all, if he wins it’s probably an easy 100 points and at 7.3k, he’s probably optimal. If the fight gets past a few minutes he could be a +900 underdog but he might just win in the first exchange. We’ve seen Dawson lose by KO in 33 seconds before.

Torres is a quick finisher and he’s +200 to win ITD here. It seems like an obvious spot. As of now, I’m projecting him to be fairly popular and owned in the upper 20s or low 30s. I’m guessing I like him less in the matchup than the field, but I wouldn’t want to be extremely underweight here as it’s still a reasonable upside shot at a cheap price tag.

With the binary nature of the matchup, this feels like a good one to invest in.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dawson by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan

Fight Odds: Duncan -145, McKinney +124

Odds to end ITD: -1200

DraftKings Salaries: Duncan 8.6k, McKinney 7.6k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

It is always going to be chaos when Terrance McKinney fights. You can always expect violence. I expect no different in this matchup against Chris Duncan this weekend.

McKinney is 17-7 professionally and 16 of his wins have come by first round finish. He comes from a wrestling background and is extremely dangerous early. He has power and has knocked several opponents dead. I don’t actually think McKinney is a very good striker as his defense is terrible, but he can clearly hurt anyone in the first couple of minutes.

McKinney also showed some ground skills against Fares Ziam and Erick Gonzalez by taking them down and quickly submitting them early. I actually think McKinney is a decent MMA wrestler. He took down and controlled Sean Woodson for the first round quite easily on the Contender Series. He most recently finished Viacheslav Borshchev early by guillotine.

The issue with McKinney is that he has never thrived in extended fights. His wins have ended early and so have his losses. Usually if the fight gets extended past a round or so, he just slows down and is very fragile and gets finished. His cardio and durability are clear issues.

I think we can still reliably expect McKinney to be dangerous early in fights standing or on the mat. He can definitely threaten with big shots on the feet or a grappling / submission storm. I just do not trust this guy when he faces adversity though. He is a good hammer but a terrible nail. We know the drill with McKinney.

McKinney will be taking on Scottish fighter Chris Duncan. Duncan is actually on a three fight win streak and his most recent win was a decision war over Mateusz Rebecki.

I basically consider Duncan a freestyle fighter. He will strike a bit, mixing in punches and kicks coupled with forward movement. He lands 4.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.53 in return. He also has shown some decent power on the regionals and won by knockout on the Contender Series. I don’t consider him great on the feet. I more so consider him functional.

Duncan can also wrestle a bit. He lands 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes and have successfully outgrappled guys like Jordan Vucenic and Omar Morales. Duncan also seems to have good cardio and can fight for a hard fifteen minutes. 

I haven’t really seen Duncan have to defensively wrestle all that much but we have seen a few sequences. He has conceded 4 takedowns on 8 attempts and I thought his submission loss to Manuel Torres was pretty sloppy. I don’t think he is a terrible defensive grappler but he isn’t perfect either.

I do get a bit concerned with Duncan’s durability. He was knocked out by Borshchev on the Contender Series which is forgivable as Borshchev is a dangerous and skilled striker. However, he was also badly hurt by Charlie Campbell and was nearly unconscious. I just think he can be overwhelmed and hurt at times. I also just hated the way he got bullied by Manuel Torres.

That is why I do think McKinney can win this fight. McKinney is really aggressive and is definitely a dangerous guy. Him running out there like a meathead and landing a knockout early is definitely possible. I also just think McKinney could maybe throw Duncan around on the mat and submit him. When fresh, McKinney is clearly a better grappler. There is just a huge speed and athleticism edge here early for McKinney. I am honestly going to pick McKinney to get that early finish.

We all know McKinney really needs that early finish though. If McKinney doesn’t finish Duncan early, then McKinney is in deep shit and will probably lose.  Duncan has actually proven to me that he can strike in decent volume and grapple for three rounds. He also just has pretty solid cardio and my guess is Duncan will finish McKinney if this fight extends.

Look, this is a tough fight to be confident in. Both guys have clear as day win conditions and It isn’t hard to imagine either guy winning. Would you really be shocked if McKinney destroyed Duncan in round one? Would you really be surprised if Duncan survived and McKinney crumbled? 

I decided to go with McKinney just because I honestly would be surprised if Duncan didn’t get hurt early. Maybe it doesn’t result in a finish and in that case Duncan should win. However, I think Duncan is in deep shit early in this fight.

—

On DraftKings, this fight surely feels like a priority, as are all of McKinney fights.

McKinney has fought in the UFC/DWCS 12 times, and none have lasted more than 1.5 rounds. Only three fights of those 12 have actually reached the second round. Of Duncan’s eight fights, five have ended inside the distance.

But when McKinney is in the mix, it surely feels like he’s going to win very quickly, or lose inside the distance and I don’t think that outcome is likely to change. We’ve seen elements of Duncan getting hurt and finished, and we’ve seen some positive brawling tendencies from him that make me believe this one won’t last long.

Regardless, the fight is -1200 to end inside the distance and -340 to end in less than 1.5 rounds, so the books agree.

McKinney is arguably the priority of the two at 7.6k considering his finishing equity. In wins, he’s scored in the high 90s and low 100s, but he’s also topped 120 points on four occasions.

He’s now +135 to win ITD and I’d assume any win for McKinney scores around 100 points or more. He’s only +124 or so to win, so his shot is very realistic.

I assume most will consider McKinney among the very best underdog targets on this slate, and I’d have to agree. I’m going to project him to be owned in the high 30s or low 40s. Whether I am picking him to win or not doesn’t really matter. He has a “solid” shot to win early ITD and is worth a significant amount of exposure.

The primary concern would just be that playing him + Merab + Pantoja will likely be super chalky. That’s honestly a strong combination on paper, but your chances of being unique with that combo is small unless you’re super contrarian elsewhere. Something to think about.

I don’t mind taking an intentional underweight stance on McKinney if you like the chalk elsewhere, simply hoping he’d lose. But he’s a solid secondary/upside target at the least and he could be viewed as a priority outright.

Duncan at 8.6k is slightly less of a priority because he’s not guaranteed to win early if he wins. And then it also becomes a conversation if he scores 106 but Merab and Pantoja smash, and others win ITD too. It just becomes more messy.

But from a pure finishing equity standpoint, Duncan rates out extremely well and is -145 to win ITD at 8.6k which is pretty elite. Odds are if he wins, it’s a RD 1 or 2 finish and it could come with a fair amount of strikes and a knockdown.

I’m not going to think too hard about this. I obviously want Duncan mixed into my core. I also like some fighters priced above him and think they have equal finishing equity or ability to reach 100.

Combinations with Duncan will probably be somewhat chalky too but with his odds to win dropping, his ownership will fall a bit as well. It’s potentially something to monitor as I’d have to consider him direct leverage against McKinney for the moment.

On paper Duncan is among the strongest favorites on the slate from a price vs. finishing equity standpoint, and he’s worthy of a significant chunk of exposure because of it. With 14 total fights and multiple championship fights, he could still theoretically perform well, finish the fight, score near 100 points and miss the optimal though so I wouldn’t call it a lock.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Duncan by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva

Fight Odds: Barber -195, Silva +165

Odds to end ITD: +180

DraftKings Salaries: Barber 8.7k, Silva 7.5k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an interesting “comeback fight” for Maycee Barber here as she will be taking on Karine Silva this weekend.

We last saw Barber compete in the cage against Kaitlyn Chookagian in March of 2024. Barber actually looked good in that matchup. She roughed Chookagian up in close quarters a bit and landed four takedowns, and I thought she looked good.

Barber then had a main event matchup scheduled against Erin Blanchfield in May of this year. These girls were literally about to walk out to the cage. That is how close this fight was to happening. Then the fight was randomly cancelled on the broadcast due to a medical emergency related to Barber. The whole sequence of events was bizarre. The broadcasters were stunned as well.

Since then, we have learned that Barber had some type of seizure and the doctors deemed her medically unable to compete. I have seen interviews of Barber since and apparently tests have been run and she has since been cleared by doctors to return to the cage. They don’t know exactly what caused the seizure but it was likely due to previous health issues she was having and the hard weight cut.

I really don’t know how Barber will look or what her medical form is. However, Barber generally always competes hard anytime she actually makes it to the cage. I am going to assume that if Barber makes it to this fight and is medically cleared to make the walk to the Octagon, that she will look normal. 

Barber is a decently well-rounded fighter. She lands 4.70 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.90 in return. She defends strikes at 54 percent. I personally don’t think Barber is the best range striker. She is okay. She definitely hits hard and can outstrike the lower tier fighters of this division at range.

However, Barber is much better as a striker in close quarters and in the clinch where she can use her physicality advantage. For example, she outlanded Montana De La Rosa 40-10 in the clinch and 4-3 at distance. Maverick outlanded Barber 43-26 at distance but Barber did good work in the clinch. She also looked good against Chookagian in close range. Barber just does much better work in the clinch than at range.

Barber is a decent grappler. She lands 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. She isn’t the best takedown artist but again she is very physical and I think she has improved from an offensive standpoint. If she manages to get in top position, she is capable of landing ruthless ground-and-pound. She is fully capable of finishing fights from top position. 

Barber defends takedowns at 53 percent. I do think good grapplers can have success against her. She has been controlled on the mat in pre ufc fights. Even Jessica Eye held her down at the end of round 2 of their fight. However, Barber isn’t a bad defensive grappler and again her physicality really helps her out in grappling situations. She uses explosive movement to reverse position. I thought her defensive grappling and get ups looked a bit better against Chookagian and Ribas. She does have some issues on the mat though.

I just really think Barber will continue to do well in fights where she can use her physicality in the clinch and get occasional top position. Good grapplers can probably have success against her and good range strikers probably can too. However, Barber always has that power and physicality to beat girls up and turn fights in her favor.

Barber will be taking on Karine Silva. Silva booked her ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series back in October of 2021. It was kind of a weird fight. Silva was outlanded in strikes 27-12 and then randomly locked in a guillotine to win the fight at the beginning of round two. Silva landed some power shots early, but she was clearly gassing and even got taken down and held down for a bit. I legit think she would have lost that fight had it not been for the random guillotine. 

Silva then submitted Botelho, Souza, and Moroz in round one of each matchup.

Early finishes seem to be a constant theme for Silva. She is 19-5 and all of her wins except two have come by finish in round 1 or 2. She has been finished a few times herself in round one and lost by decision to UFC fighter Dione Barbosa on the regionals.

Silva generally looks like an early finish or bust fighter to me. However, she did at least win a decision in her last two wins against Ariane Lipski and Dione Barbosa. Silva generally lost the striking exchanges and avoided them altogether. However, she landed five takedowns and controlled Lipski for over seven minutes. Lipski presents no threat off her back though and doesn’t resist there at all to tire opponents out. So although it was good to see Silva display another path to victory with takedowns and control over the duration against Lipski, I want to see her do it again against someone who can resist a little more. She wasn’t able to do that against Araujo and looked tired later in that fight. She also didn’t look all that good against Barbosa either.

Silva is certainly dangerous early though. She is a classic Brazilian dual threat finisher as she has some power on the feet and submissions on the mat. She can also likely out control weaker opponents over the duration.

As a striker, Silva seems too low volume to me but I do think she is capable of hurting girls or competing in the first round or so. I just don’t trust stand-up knockouts in WMMA as a consistent win method, especially at the UFC level. I question Silva’s ability to land volume over the duration.

As a grappler, that is where Silva is best. I do think she is dangerous with her submissions early in fights.

The issue is that Silva’s wrestling doesn’t seem the best and so many of her submissions are non-process and non-predictive as they generally come by guillotine, armbar, knee bar, etc. In other words, her submissions come when she doesn’t have top position, which are much harder submissions to predict and obtain when fighters get steps up in competition. In contrast, Gillian Robertson gets process submissions from top position like rear naked chokes and arm triangles. Those are easier to predict and to obtain at this level.

I mean look, Silva can still submit girls in the UFC. I also think she can land takedowns and control average to below-average grapplers at this level. So she is clearly UFC level and can win fights here.

I still just don’t like other aspects of Silva’s game though. Her striking is not great. She has also been taken and held down for entire rounds before and her takedown defense is bad at 11 percent. I also don’t like her cardio much either. She really tired vs Araujo and I just don’t totally trust her.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think Silva could potentially land takedowns and maybe threaten with a submission. Barber does only defend takedowns at 53 percent and we have seen her occasionally show some holes in her defensive grappling against girls like Roxanne Modafferi and Andrea Lee. We have seen Barber taken down and put in some bad positions and I do think Silva is a dangerous enough grappler to threaten her.

I do think Barber has improved though with her defensive grappling, particularly in the Ribas and Chookagian fights. I also just don’t think Silva has the best takedowns. So although I do think Silva can have some potential grappling success here, I don’t think she can take down and control Barber for the entire fight or anything. Silva will likely face some resistance so I think Silva probably needs a sub here to win.

Barber has a ton of advantages if she can just resist the grappling a bit. Barber could literally take Silva down whenever she wants and Barber has arguably the best ground-and-pound in all of women’s MMA, and I honestly could see Barber beating the crap out of Silva with it. 

Furthermore, Barber is a better striker and I think she will rough Silva up with her power and physicality in close quarters. I also think Barber has a massive cardio edge. Barber has some of the best cardio in the sport and Silva really slowed down vs Araujo. I also think these girls will fight super high paced as they both like to fight in close and that generally is a fight where Barber fights at such a high pace.

I think Barber will just eventually wear Silva out and then beat her up. That is my projection. This is a big step up for Silva as well and arguably a step down in competition for Barber. I think Silva maybe threatens with some grappling early, Barber weathers it and then just turns the fight around and beats Silva up to a clean decision or mid to late round stoppage.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t really see this fight as a priority on either side.

Barber has scored well historically but the problem here is that she’s sandwiched at 8.7k between Duncan and Baraniewski who are arguably two of the better finishing targets on the slate. That doesn’t factor in the overall strength of the card either with two championship fights and 14 total fights. Barber herself is only +375 to win ITD.

Due to that, I don’t see how she can be a priority, and I will likely only use her to change things up or when I cannot pay up further.

With that said, I still think she has a solid floor in a win with a path to 100 points. Barber has scored 99 and 107 in her last two wins, and we’ve seen her top 100 points early in her career as well, though those results came with finishes.

Essentially, when Barber can dominate, she can score well because she lands a lot of total strikes in the clinch and does damage. She mixes in wrestling. Add a finish to it and she can easily top 100 points. Her chances of winning ITD simply aren’t as high here.

I wouldn’t rule it out though, as Silva has always sketched me out a bit and there are some red flags in her profile. I wouldn’t be shocked if Barber hurt her and swarmed for a finish. I think it at least puts Barber in play as a semi-contrarian target.

Ultimately, I have to lean elsewhere with a limited portfolio and I don’t think Barber is likely to break the slate. But if you need someone below 9k, I think Barber has a reasonable chance to win and her style at least presents a bit of upside, and because she may be squeezed in the 8k range, a lower public ownership makes her a viable pivot on occasion.

Silva is priced down to 7.5k and I only consider her a mediocre play.

If I thought she was going to win, I’d like her more, but I’m guessing Barber will get her hand raised. Like Barber, when Silva wins, she typically does score well though.

Silva has some finishes early in her UFC career which scored super well. Her last two wins have been competitive though, and she’s only put up 84 and 67 DK points. She’s only +325 to win ITD but that’s a better number than Barber has.

For the price, Silva is OK. She has some finishing equity in her style. She’s cheap. She can wrestle a little bit and Barber isn’t the beacon of consistency. I’d be fine mixing her in around the field percentage.

Most likely I’ll aim to be generally light though as I am picking Silva to lose, and I’d rather invest in other dogs who I think have more win/finishing equity based on the matchup.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barber by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Fares Ziam

Fight Odds: Ziam -135, Sadykhov +116

Odds to end ITD: +145

DraftKings Salaries: Ziam 8.3k, Sadykhov 7.9k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a decent action fight here in the lightweight division between Fares Ziam and Nazim Sadykhov.

I have never been the biggest fan of Ziam’s game because he just doesn’t land a ton of offense. However, I do think he has really improved and I started picking him in more recent contests and have come to respect him.

He recently dominated Matt Frevola in a career best performance and landed 4 takedowns, outstruck Frevola soundly, and then knocked Frevola dead. It was honestly a very good performance by Ziam. In his most recent matchup, he beat Mike Davis by landing the better shots and by landing 4 takedowns. It was another decent performance. 

Ziam has never really been a reliable offensive wrestler, but along with his recent strides in that area, he landed 3 takedowns against Michael Figlak and showed a decent ability to control top position in that fight.

Ziam only lands 2.85 significant strikes per minute and has landed 10, 47, 39, 60, 61, 31, and 35 significant strikes in his seven decisions in the UFC. He managed to win six of those fights, but that is just not enough offense to clearly win fights at this level. It at least makes me nervous to a degree.

Ziam does only absorb 1.62 significant strikes in return and defends strikes at 64 percent though. So he is landing more strikes than he absorbs and is sound defensively. So I actually think he is a guy who will outperform his striking volume metrics just because he is defensively sound so he can still outland opponents. He doubled up Michael Figlak and outlanded Jai Herbert 61-49 so he is still capable. He also outlanded Frevola 45-9 at distance. 

Ziam is best as a kickboxer and although I am skeptical of his volume, I do think he is decent technically and solid defensively. He is rangy with his 6’1” frame and can use his kicking game and jab to outslick his opponents. Striking based decisions will be his most likely path to victory at this level. I also think he is a tough kid and I haven’t seen him hurt often.

I still worry about Ziam’s volume though along with his lack of physicality and defensive grappling. He defends takedowns at 70 percent which is decent. However, he has been taken down in several fights and can be exposed vs decent grapplers. Puelles had success against him and McKinney submitted him in round 1. He was also mounted for a short period of time against Frevola. Again though, I think he has really improved as a defensive grappler and I think the other portions of the Frevola fight showed that.

I am interested in seeing Ziam fight volume strikers who will go after him because it will be interesting to see if he can still limit strikes and not tire out due to a pace. We are going to get that here against Nazim Sadykhov so I am really interested in this fight.

Sadykhov is 10-1 professionally and fights out of Ray Longo’s gym. Sadykhov booked his ticket to the UFC with a third round knockout in his Contender Series bout. He is 4-0-1 in the UFC with his first win coming by a cut TKO against Evan Elder in a fight he was actually down on the scorecards. He then finished McKinney. 

Sadykhov had a draw against Viacheslav Borshchev in a fight that generally took place on the feet. In rounds 1 and 3, Sadykhov lost both rounds pretty cleanly as Borshchev was just a slicker striker. In round 2, Sadykhov obtained a 10-8 round as he hurt Borshchev badly and beat the crap out of him, and nearly stopped him for most of the round. The fight basically showed that Sadykhov is a dangerous striker, but he can drop rounds by getting out skilled. 

Honestly that same thing showed in his win against Ismael Bonfim. Bonfim was cleanly winning round 1 and then Sadykhov landed a big shot and won by stoppage. Sadykhov most recently weathered an early storm against Nikolas Motta where he was hurt but then turned it around and finished Motta.

I mostly consider Sadykhov a power striker who has a good straight left hand standing out of the southpaw stance. He can sometimes be a little low volume on the feet at times but at times he will push a pace too, especially if he smells blood. He lands 5.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.89. He landed 93 significant strikes against Motta in a couple of rounds so it skewed his metrics to a degree.

Sadykhov is physical, tough and hits hard. He can walk down opponents and hurt them which makes up for his low volume at times. He is almost always the aggressor and he seems very tough and has good cardio. So he gives himself a full fight to hurt his opponents.

I think my biggest concern with Sadykhov is his defense. He is defending strikes at 50 percent which is not good. He was outlanded by Elder 70-64 in significant strikes. He was also outlanded by Borschev 143-94 in significant strikes. It isn’t like Sadykhov is getting teed off on and is a big time threat to get knocked out. 

I am not as worried about Sadykhov’s striking defense in the sense that he will be knocked out a lot. He actually seems very durable. He is just aggressive which allows his opponents to land point scoring shots and get ahead on the scorecards. I am just concerned that we will keep seeing him lose the strike total battles against skilled strikers which will borderline make him knockout or bust in those types of matchups.

Sadykhov is capable of landing takedowns here and there, but I don’t consider him a great wrestler or anything. He lands 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. He does have decent defensive wrestling with a powerful base and can turn defensive wrestling / sprawls into top time of his own. He defends takedowns at 75 percent. He will also look to mix in ground-and-pound.

I really like this fight. I think it is a good test for each guy because they both have an opponent who can test their flaws.

I think Ziam is a more technical, long range striker and I think he is superior defensively. Ziam can probably get off to a lead and generally win this fight if he minimizes big moments of Sadykhov. I really do think technical strikers will be the guys who will give Sadykhov issues and I am going to pick Ziam for those reasons.

Ziam just never actually lands many strikes though and he hasn’t fought a ton of guys who fight at a high pace and who are very aggressive. Sadykhov will definitely try to be aggressive and I honestly could see Sadykhov just competing by staying tough, coming forward, pressuring and landing some occasional big shots. So I really could see either of these guys winning and I do expect the striking over the duration to be competitive. 

This also could turn into a chaotic fight as are many Sadykhov fights, so random variance and knockouts are in play. Both guys have some moderate power and could hurt the other. I do think both guys are pretty tough though.

I think either guy could land takedowns but I generally think both are good enough defensively as grapplers (and limited offensively) that striking will determine the winner here. 

Overall, I just want to go with the technical striker in Ziam here. I do think Ziam has issues but he does tend to land effectively and protect himself enough defensively and Sadykhov has defensive issues. This should be a fun one though.

—

On DraftKings, this is another mid-range fight I’m hesitant to play into.

Typically I haven’t been the biggest fan of Ziam with his low-volume style. I backed him a bit against Frevola and then he surprised me with a bunch of wrestling against Mike Davis. So he’s picked up some strong recent scores in the 90-100 range.

I mean look, if Ziam is going to land four takedowns here I want action on him. Otherwise, he’s ultra boom or bust and dependent on a knockout which is not his forte.

Ziam is only +450 to win ITD here which is really poor and it’s hard to back him at 8.3k. He just likes to slow the pace down in fights which I hate. On a big slate, it’s a real risk to target matchups like this as an extended fight likely kills it.

I suppose Ziam is still viable in the sense he’s landed 3+ takedowns in three of his last four wins. Sadykhov can be hurt. I could see Ziam winning the fight and putting up a decent number, but I’m much more skeptical that number is 100+.

So ultimately, I’m just worried about the ceiling in general with Ziam. He doesn’t rate out super well here. I’m OK with limited exposure but I wouldn’t aim to be in on Ziam this week.

Sadykhov is priced at 7.9k and I’m not a huge fan of him either.

My real issue is that Ziam will slow the pace down, so Sadykhov just isn’t going to land 90 strikes in two rounds. Ziam has never allowed 50 strikes in a fight.

Sadykhov does have a better ITD prop at +225 which puts him in play on paper, but I really don’t trust it. Ziam defends strikes well and is better defensively than Sadykhov, so I’d be pretty surprised by a finish.

I have been picking against Ziam because his defensive grappling is weak and it’s another path for opponents to score, but that defense has clearly improved in recent years where I no longer think it’s a major issue. Perhaps Sadykhov has a path on the mat but I couldn’t project him for more than a couple of takedowns.

In theory, Sadykhov is an OK target with finishing equity on paper, but I don’t love the matchup for him and I don’t think he’ll score many points per minute. I’d rather avoid him for the most part honestly, and only consider him a low-end target due to pacing.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ziam by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira

Fight Odds: Vettori -118, Ferreira +101

Odds to end ITD: -110

DraftKings Salaries: Vettori 8.2k, Ferreira 8k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Marvin Vettori’s rounding out his 10th year on the roster and despite only being 32 years old, he’s looked shop worn in recent years having gone 1-4 in his last 5 – he’s 9-7-1 in the UFC and 19-8-1 as a pro. Brunno Ferreira’s a Contender Series alum from the 2022 season who came into the UFC with a bang, scoring a big knockout upset over Gregory Rodrigues – he’s since gone 4-2 in the UFC and is 14-2 as a pro. 

The striking component:  

Vettori’s always been an interesting guy in the standup because what he does doesn’t look the prettiest or flashiest as he’s a bit rigid/rickety, but it’s a style that’s got him to where he is. 

He’s traditionally a guy who will go forward, look to stay in opponents’ faces and outwork them over the course of fights. In that, he lands 4.7 SLpM at 45% and 5.4 DLpM at 43%. 

He’s outpaced all of his opponents in his W’s with the exception of Holland – a fight that took place at distance for only 5 minutes of a 25 minute fight where he took a wrestling heavy approach.     

Vettori has some pop on his shots but isn’t a pure power guy either with no UFC KO’s and is more so volume/pressure based – he did hurt Cannonier in round 1 and Dolidze in round 3 though despite scoring no official knockdowns.     

However, he’s a hittable fighter eating 4.5 SApM at 56% and 5.5 DApM at 58%

But he’s shown to have an iron clad chin with his durability being one of the better attributes of his game. 

However, we’ve seen some of the historical aspects mentioned above with Vettori start to falter more in recent fights. The main thing being that he’s the one being put on the back foot in a lot of these fights now where he’s not able to dictate the pace – as a result, he hasn’t been as effective and is starting to take more shots. 

While Dolidze is an improved fighter, Vettori getting outlanded over 5 rounds by him (albeit not by much) is a pretty bearish look.

Even in the last fight against Allen where the official strikes were essentially evens, he’s still getting backed up, being more reactionary and ultimately losing the exchanges eating the bigger shots.

Overall, despite his recent skid, Vettori’s still a good striker that you can anticipate to be in there for 15 minutes and produce a high amount of offense.

Ferreira’s a smaller middleweight standing 5’10” with a 72” reach.      

But he’s very compact, will switch stances and has shown big power components within the pocket with 9 of his 14 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.    

I don’t think he’s a technical savant as he can load his punches and overextend at times, but in his debut upset over Rodrigues, he landed a really processed counter left which ultimately put Rodrigues out cold.      

But the dude’s an absolute bull on the inside and guys can’t make small mistakes against him.      

Defensively, he does a good job of getting his guard back up but did struggle with some of the straights of Rodrigues, and was probably losing the fight up until the KO despite competing – the distance strikes were 20 to 19.      

Historically, he’s been durable but that caught up to him in his outing 2nd outing where he threw a naked leg kick and ate a perfectly timed shot right down the pipe from Ruziboev – kind of a dumb gameplan to be honest trying to time entry kicks against an opponent who had such a large length advantage over him – the right hand of Ruziboev was really the one thing he needed to worry about and couldn’t avoid it.     

Both guys landed some good shots in the Hawes fight, but Ferreira eventually found the glass chin of Hawes right at the bell of the 1st. Stoltzfus was winning the early exchanges but got caught with a spinning attack from Ferreira which started the beginning of the end. 

It was a somewhat similar story as Magomedov won the 1st round pretty clean at range but Ferreira cracked him in the 2nd which swung the round his way despite not finishing – the overall fight was low volume though with the distance strikes being 26-26. Petrosyan was also outstriking him prior to the submission.

Overall, I don’t think Ferreira is anything overtly special but he’s not technically inept and a really dangerous hitter. But given his lack of size at the weight class and the fact that he hasn’t been extended all that much isn’t great. 

How it plays out: Off the top, Vettori will realize a slight size advantage of 2” in both the height and reach departments. The striking dynamic is pretty interesting as both guys’ styles are a bit oil and water. You have the higher volume, more durable guy in Vettori versus the lower volume, more explosive/power dependent guy in Ferreira. Despite touting Vettori’s crazy durability, he has started to get buzzed more and take a lot more shots – 96, 163, 74, 71, 241, 141 and 111 in his last 7 fights. So it does really beg the question of how much longer he’ll be able to sustain damage before being KO’d. Ferreira is an opponent who will definitely test that. However, as noted, Ferreira hasn’t shown the volume patterns of some of the other guys referenced so if he doesn’t knock Vettori out or can’t produce bigger moments in 2 of the 3 rounds, I’d anticipate Vettori to outland him and probably be winning the overall exchanges.

The wrestling/grappling component: 

Vettori’s wrestling approach has always been very matchup dependent over the years but he is a capable wrestler landing 1.4 TDs per 15 minutes at 45%.    

He’s also a brown belt in BJJ and has always had an underrated grappling game in my eyes – two sub wins in the UFC.     

Defensively, he’s proven difficult to wrestle with his TDD sitting at 66% — a percentage that has dropped a bit in recent years but he’s still only conceded 6% of his total fight time being controlled which is pretty impressive considering a 10 year sample size.

The only guy to have extended ground success on him was Antonio Carlos Junior (high level black belt) back in 2016 when Vettori was just a kid and he also didn’t get submitted. Only 25% of Vettori fight time is spent grappling but he’s out controlling his opponents at a 3:1 ratio.    

Overall, this has been a good complement to Vettori’s striking game and has aided in him winning fights in the further past but it hasn’t come into play much in recent years.    

Judo is Ferreira’s base martial art where he holds black belt in the discipline along with a jiu jitsu black belt as well.      

Despite being more recently known as a perennial power guy, he’s landed TDs in a lot of his fights where he’s shown good throws and can elevate guys with high crotches or double legs.      

On the ground, his control components have largely been good and has shown to be an effective passer.      

He’s got vicious GNP and a respectable submission game to mount and take backs.      

He was never taken down conventionally on the regional scene, but he did lose position in one instance going for a triangle but was able to re-reverse quickly and get back on top.  He secured a triangle in another instance but hasn’t been shot on all that much.     

His entries against Rodrigues didn’t look great and almost got his back taken but did the proper things to allow that to not happen – Rodrigues is a higher-level black belt as well.  He hit a really nice foot sweep on Hawes who’s not an easy guy to take down.    

He conceded some early ground minutes to Stoltzfus and got his back taken but was able to work out of the positions. 

However, defensive wrestling played a large role against Magomedov where he was taken down 4 times and eventually gave up mount and an arm triangle late.

But he’s now coming off back to back armbar submission wins where he was able to best in the grappling over Petrosyan and McVey.  

Overall, the floor has generally been a nice complement to the power components that Ferreira possesses standing but there are still some defensive questions/concerns on him given sample.   

How it plays out: Similar to the striking, the floor is a bit oil and water as well. While both have similar offensive metrics, Ferreira does profile to be the one grappling in the fight and is the better submission artist. But that’s juxtaposed with Vettori being a capable TD defender and very difficult to hold down throughout the course of his career – in addition to having never been submitted in 28 pro fights. So, I would lean to giving Ferreira more upside based on pursuit but it’s also hard to ignore the Magomedov fight for him where Vettori does have grappling upside himself.

Great fight but also a very weird one when you factor in the style dynamic coupled with Vettori regressing but also with him being a decent step up in competition for Ferreira. The positives for Ferreira come in power, wrestling (maybe) and less miles. The positives for Vettori come in volume, durability, cardio and strength of schedule. As per that, it’s a tricky fight to call. Despite my concerns with where Vettori is at, his level of competition can’t be ignored and I find myself strongly leaning his way. Ferreira still hasn’t won a fight past round 2 and Vettori’s never been finished.

—

On DraftKings, this is another spot that I may lean against playing a lot of and hope it’s overowned by the public.

Ferreira has honestly crushed through his early UFC career, and is coming off another 100 point score in his last win. Given his style, he’ll likely continue to win early ITD when he wins and therefore he carries a tournament winning ceiling.

At this price, there’s no doubt it’s risky to avoid him and ultimately you don’t have to. He’s powerful with some submission upside, and is +165 to win ITD in this fight.

I just don’t think it’s a good matchup for him. Vettori is ultra tough, and has never been finished, including by superior grapplers like ACJ and Brendan Allen. He has been hurt, but he’s never officially been knocked down.

There’s no reason for me to chase an early finish in this matchup. I think Vettori is better than Ferreira potentially everywhere, though he could still lose, there’s not an easy path for Ferreira to smash.

Priced at 8k, I’d probably rather hope the field gets on him in the mid 20s ownership and I can come in underweight, hoping he either loses or the fight extends. I still consider him a fine tournament target on paper and mixing him in around the field percentage is a viable strategy in larger fields. I don’t want to make it seem like it’s an impossible task.

I just don’t typically bet on this type of outcome. Vettori has never been finished in 29 pro fights and he’s fought many better opponents than Ferreira.

Vettori is priced at 8.2k and probably isn’t a great fantasy target though I think he’s somewhat viable as a contrarian and leverage option.

I doubt he’ll be owned at all, and probably sub 15 percent publicly. He’s only +385 to win ITD and he doesn’t rate out well on paper.

Ferreira has only lost twice though, and he’s been finished both times. By KO and by sub. His cardio is questionable and he’s small.

You could sell me on the idea that if Vettori wins, he has a sneaky shot to win ITD. He is a capable boxer and grappler, and better in extended fights. It would be difficult to get a lot of exposure to Vettori but he could be the type that really separates you from the field.

So if you’re on chalky combos elsewhere, I don’t mind sprinkling in Vettori as a differentiator. He probably won’t come through but Ferreira has some questionable profiling in losses and I wouldn’t be shocked by the outcome. Given the ownership and leverage I’d like a bit of exposure here in large fields.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vettori by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner

Fight Odds: Turner -314, Barboza +257

Odds to end ITD: -400

DraftKings Salaries: Turner 9.3k, Barboza 6.9k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Edson Barboza’s rounding out his 16th year on the active roster and will be entering his 2nd fight back up at 155 lbs. after an 8-fight stint down at 145 lbs. – he’s 18-13 in the UFC and 24-13 as a pro. Jalin Turner was a part of one of the early seasons of Contender Series back in 2018 where he started to have struggles when entering the top 15 and has gone 1-4 in his last five. He briefly retired after his loss in March (despite only being 30 years old) but has now decided to resume his career – he’s 7-6 in the UFC and 14-9 as a pro.

The striking component:  

Barboza has been known as one of the better kickers in MMA over the years having produced finishes to all three levels on opponents. He also has one of the more notable highlight reel KOs in UFC history with that spinning wheel kick over Terry Etem.       

Statistically, he lands 4.2 SLpM at 46% and 5.1 DLpM at 44% — not great but decent numbers, especially given the fact he’s been fighting in the top 15 for the better part of his career.     

Stylistically, Barboza primarily likes to play the outside, get off on his kicks, flurry in with his hands and circle back out – he will fight within the mid-range as well though.     

That’s largely been very effective for him and the main reason he’s able to win his fights if guys are either willing to play the range game with him or not be able to cut him off/get inside.      

In that, he can outwork opponents and has the dynamic abilities to hurt and/or KO just about anyone.   

To highlight that, he KO’d Quarantillo a handful of fights back, handing him his 2nd career KO loss as a guy that’s historically known to have insane durability.      

Defensively, he eats 4.8 SApM at 54% and 5.1 DApM at 58%. 

Historically, Barboza’s primary struggles have come with effective pressure. He’s had some durability issues throughout his career as well and has been knocked down four times in his last six fights.     

Getting KO’d by Chikadze is more forgivable but him getting dropped early by Mitchell who’s a base grappler that hasn’t hurt anyone in the UFC is highly alarming.  

It was honestly impressive that he was able to survive the early surge that he did against Yusuff, getting 10-8’d in that round but there’s also a very real world where he doesn’t. He also ate 178 SS in the fight as well. 

He also took a lot of damage in the Murphy fight where he ate 220 significant strikes over 5 rounds.     

Overall, Barboza is still a higher-level striker who’s incredibly dangerous, but his durability and faltering defense is of real concern at this point in his career. 

Turner’s one of the bigger 155ers on the roster who stands southpaw at 6’3” with a 77” reach.  

He largely likes to focus on his straight punches which are crisp but will dig the body and has shown good clinch components with knees and elbows – he’ll also throw those stabbing front kicks and leg kicks in general.      

I’ve seen bigger evolutions in his overall technical prowess throughout the last 3-4 years and he seems more comfortable in space now more than ever.      

Statistically, he’s high output landing 5.1 SLpM at 47% and 6.1 DLpM at 42%.  

He’s outpaced all his opponents in his seven UFC wins and even in his losses with Hooker and Bahamondes being the only recent exceptions which weren’t by margin – he went evens with Luque at distance (impressive considering it was his debut on short notice, up a weight class), outstruck Frevola at distance winning the stand up in that fight and out landed Gamrot at distance.     

He’s also shown to have a lot of power despite not “loading up” on his shots – he’s finished 10 of his 14 pro wins via strikes or doctor stoppage.     

Even in his last three submission wins, they came via a product of him hurting Weaver, Medic and Riddell – he also dropped Gamrot. He floored Bobby Green who’s historically been a durable guy and also hurt Hooker badly in round two.  

But I still have defensive issues with Turner despite his higher output, dangerous nature as he eats 4.4 SApM at 40% and 5.4 DApM at 42%.  

I have seen some improvements in his distance management, but it still needs some work as he can rely on his chin a bit within the pocket.      

Overall, he’s sound/potent offensively with significant finishing potential but needs to up his defensive capabilities now fighting at the higher levels of the division. 

How it plays out: Off the top, Turner will realize a size advantage of 4” in height and 2” in reach. While there is some merit to Barboza being able to outmaneuver or potentially catch Turner, it’s really that pressure of Turner that should pose bigger issues to Barboza as it has historically. While Turner hasn’t been the best extended fighter, Barboza’s cardio also tends to drop significantly under effective resistance and when he’s taking damage which he profiles to face here. Barboza hasn’t been KO’d in four years to his credit but it’s a fairly live outcome here.

The wrestling/grappling component:  

Barboza is a BJJ black belt but given his dynamic striking style, you’ll rarely see him wrestle and he only lands 0.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 41%.     

He’s only landed a handful of TDs generally in the last decade – it’s just not something you can trust Barboza to do. He did go to it late in the 5th round against Yusuff though to just mix it up I guess.   

Defensively, he stuffs at 72% which is a pretty good mark but has had floor struggles in multiple fights – most notably against Khabib, Lee, Mitchell and pockets from Murphy.

It was really the attritional wrestling that just broke him down over the course of those fights. In the defense of Barboza, all three of those guys are very strong wrestlers.     

I still think it was concerning that Mitchell went 4/4 on Barboza though and he just really couldn’t do anything. Barboza hasn’t “quit” in those outings, but he has wilted and gassed.    

Overall, the ground is a weakness for Barboza but he’s not being outgrappled by cupcakes. 

Turner is a BJJ brown belt and we have seen some ground time within his UFC fights.      

He only lands 0.7 TDs per 15 minutes but at 50%. So offensively, we haven’t seen him shoot or land a ton of TDs so it’s hard to say what his official wrestling acumen is.       

But he did sweep Frevola in their fight and looked solid on the ground against Culibao.      

In that, he’s a more than competent submission grappler and those long limbs of his will always make him dangerous when fights hit the floor – as noted though, his submissions have really come with him hurting guys first in comparison to him process grappling people.      

He struggled with the wrestling of Frevola in which he got taken down 4 times and controlled for 5 minutes which is what cost him that fight – but also stuffed 9 other TD attempts showing good hips/sprawls on many occasions – no shame really as Frevola is a good wrestler/grappler.       

He was also taken down and grinded a bit towards the end of the 1st against Mullarkey and didn’t stand up. It was the wrestling of Gamrot that ultimately beat him, but he stuffed 8/12 shots at the same time against a good wrestler/grappler in Gamrot – a fight that still could have gone his way.   

Additionally, Hooker was able to get on top after a later knockdown and also threatened Turner in the 2nd with a deeper choke – he would have finished with more time left on the clock. 

He got ran on the mat by Moicano and was positionally TKO’d in the 2nd. Most recently, he made a small mistake on top against Bahamondes where he got caught in a triangle which was the first submission loss of his career.         

But in totality, Turner still stuffs TDs at 75% which is a good mark.

Overall, I’d like to see a larger sample of Turner but he can be strong from top position and is a competent submission grappler. However, the ground has been a contributing factor in five of six UFC losses.  

How it plays out: The ground is somewhat tricky to analyze considering both aren’t proactive wrestlers and have run into some struggles on the bottom despite having respectable conventional TDD above the divisional average. While I’d anticipate a primary striking fight, I suppose I’d give more upside to Turner just in the sense that he’s the bigger of the two and does have UFC submissions whereas Barboza doesn’t.

Funky fight considering some of the macro intangibles with Turner returning from a short lived retirement and Barboza having a lot of miles on him where he’ll be turning 40 years old in January – red flags on both. But assuming Turner is coming in with his head on straight, he should get the job done here with his size, pressure, power and significant youth advantage playing a larger role.

—

On DraftKings, this is a fight worth considering for the pacing and finishing equity.

The problem is really the pricing, where Turner is sitting at 9.3k which makes him only a second tier target. As with others in this range, Turner needs to totally smash Barboza early to reach a ceiling and even if he can, there’s still a real question as to whether he can outscore Merab and Pantoja in wins. I would guess he cannot.

So in that sense, Turner might just be screwed by default and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to avoid him. In an extended fight, he’s likely screwed anyway and the fight itself is still a pick’em to go Over 1.5 rounds.

With that said, I at least consider Turner a solid pivot in this range because he can fight at a high pace and he can secure an early finish. He’s -225 to win ITD which is strong and he’s $500 cheaper than Abdul-Malik which is a huge benefit.

Especially if one of the two championship favorites lose, Turner becomes much more viable.

I’ll admit that with him coming off a retirement, he’s still hard to trust. Barboza is very good too. So this isn’t a squash match at all. I can at least envision early success for Turner if he has success at all, and a 100+ point score.

So although he’s not a priority and not really safe, Turner is a solid upside pivot within this top range who I’d like some exposure to when applicable.

Barboza at 6.9k is viable as well.

I would lump him into the same tier as Cejudo and Naimov. He’s probably not going to win but this dude has been a high-level striker for a decade, and Turner had decided this year he was done fighting forever. I wouldn’t be that surprised if Barboza beat him.

There are also concerns with Barboza’s age, and coming up in weight. I’m still going to pick Turner.

At 6.9k though, Barboza is a fine low-end target when you don’t want to be on Van and Yan. I could make a case for Cejudo and Naimov ahead of him but those guys will fight at much slower paces.

Barboza has a touch of finishing equity too and he’s +450 to win ITD. I can’t say I’ll end up with much exposure to Barboza but I don’t want to fully count him out. When you need a punt, he’s at least worth consideration as a sprinkle and pivot off other chalk in the bottom tier.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Turner by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan

Fight Odds: Baraniewski -188, Aslan +159

Odds to end ITD: -525

DraftKings Salaries: Baraniewski 8.8k, Aslan 7.4k

Weight Class: 205

Every once in a while I’m pleasantly surprised by what I see on tape from a newcomer and that’s how I feel this week with Iwo Baraniewski, who will compete against Ibo Aslan on Saturday.

Baraniewski is 6-0 professionally at age 27, earning four wins by knockout and two by submission. He’s a Judo black belt and won the bronze medal in the 2018 Judo World championships, with the hopes of making the Olympics, and eventually transitioned into professional MMA.

Let’s get the bad part out of the way first. In his six pro fights, Iwo has never seen the second round. I haven’t seen him face any adversity whatsoever, so in that sense, we’re somewhat blind.

It’s very possible that in an extended fight, he gasses out and sucks. If he gets hit hard on the feet, maybe he quits. It’s more likely than not that a record like this is hiding some red flags, and it’s better to be safe than sorry when analyzing him.

With that said, Iwo has fought to a decision three times on the amateurs, winning all three, and those results came in 2022 and 2024. It gives me some hope that he can be fine in an extended fight.

In the brief tape we have, Iwo looks legit everywhere. He likes to clinch and drag his opponents to the mat, where he’s able to finish with armbars or ground-and-pound. I didn’t watch his armbar finishes but that’s a move Judokas specialize in as you can immediately transition to an armbar in Judo after a takedown.

In the other instances, he’ll just take half guard, mount or back mount and land really solid GnP to get the finishes. He’ll throw elbows. He looks like he can beat up weak grapplers at least.

Additionally, his boxing actually looks solid from the eye test. We just don’t have a big sample here so I’m hesitant to overvalue it, but he looks competent and fast. He’s coming off a 20-second KO on DWCS where he landed one big punch and that was the end.

I don’t necessarily care about that, or take much away from it. He has some power but I honestly think his speed is more important. He doesn’t look like a sitting duck to me. I’ve even seen him throw some leg kicks.

So really, who knows what he will look like in an extended fight but he at least has a path to some damage on the feet and isn’t fully dependent on takedowns.

He’ll be taking on Ibo Aslan who is coming off back-to-back losses after winning his first two UFC fights.

Aslan is 14-3 professionally and all 14 of his wins have come by knockout, with the vast majority of them coming in the first round.

This guy has marched through a handful of weak opponents, including his opponent on DWCS, who he knocked out in two minutes.

The guy is clearly powerful, and that can certainly translate to damage against better competition. He throws nice leg kicks, which is also a technique that I love. But we don’t have major samples here in extended fights as well and typically, fighters who dominate early tend not to do so well once the fight progresses.

The UFC actually decided to book Aslan against Turkalj, who gave Aslan his one and only regional loss in 2020, where Turkalj submitted him with a RNC in the second round.

You can watch that fight, and it’s not super pretty. Aslan walks Turkalj down, and lands a couple of nice leg kicks. Turkalj can’t connect with much offensively. Aslan ends up on top of Turkalj early but can’t produce offense from top position and Turkalj gets back up on his feet.

In round two, Turkalj lands a takedown of his own, and moves immediately into mount. From there, Aslan gives up his back to stand up and gets choked out.

It’s honestly an awful fight, and especially the ending sequence. Put everything else aside. Watching Turkalj immediately advance into mount from the takedown is a glaring red flag and tells me that at that time, Aslan really did not know how to grapple at all. It’s an elementary mistake to make.

Since that fight, Aslan has competed eight times, and prior to his UFC debut he never made it to the halfway point of the first round. There’s been no worthwhile ground exchanges since until his most recent fight against Cutelaba, who was able to take Aslan down after a few brawling exchanges and tap him out with an arm-triangle choke.

In his debut against Turkalj, Aslan actually defended eight takedown attempts, which is a positive in the sense that he literally did not fall over. But none of the attempts make me feel extremely confident in his wrestling defense against better competition, and my primary concern is still what happens once the fight actually hits the mat.

On the feet, Aslan still showed his power but he was cracked early and arguably lost the first round. I did like that he was forced to fight longer, and won round two convincingly before putting Turkalj away in round three.

In theory, it gives me more hope that Aslan isn’t fully dependent on early damage though that’s still where I think the bulk of his success will come.

In his most recent fight, Elekana just played a defensive game and didn’t allow exchanges. He outboxed Aslan 35-28 over three rounds which is a pretty big red flag as Aslan just could not get his game going.

Ultimately, I think Aslan still needs early damage to win. He’s shown the ability to at least survive three rounds, but he’s not producing a whole lot of offense late in fights and his ground game still seems like a major weakness.

His two wins against Turkalj and Cerqueira have aged horribly too and with another loss, he might be out of the promotion.

Honestly, I think Iwo should beat Aslan. Iwo clearly has the superior ground game and pedigree, and the last two times Aslan has been taken down, he’s been immediately finished.

He’s defended some occasional takedowns and Iwo doesn’t always shoot them immediately, so there’s still variance here. I do think Iwo can drag him down though and probably just pound him or out submit him from there.

If not, Aslan is definitely live. He’s a power boxer and the more experienced boxer on paper. He’s gone the distance in the UFC.

We’ve just never seen Iwo hurt so it’s hard to be sure about anything but if he can’t finish Aslan early on the mat, maybe Aslan is actually the favorite outright and maybe the betting line is wrong because of that.

However, my gut feeling is Iwo can actually compete there too, if not win. I think he’s faster than Aslan and may even be at an advantage early. Aslan just got outboxed by Billy freaking Elekana too so it’s hard for me to have much faith.

I’ll say it again that Aslan can win this fight on the feet, and potentially by knockout. We don’t have enough data on Iwo to be sure. But I think Iwo has a clear grappling advantage and an additional path on the feet via speed and competence, so I’m going to take him to win outright and it probably ends early either way.

—

On DraftKings, I’m not sure how the field will feel but I really like Iwo at 8.8k.

We’re coming off a slate where I was high on Denzel Freeman in a HW fight that was insanely likely to end ITD. They just stared at each other for 15 minutes and the fight was a complete bust.

Simply put, there’s just a ton of variance in fights like this. Anything can happen.

But this fight is -550 to end ITD and on paper it rates out as a great one to end in less than 1.5 rounds, on either side. I really do think Iwo has a legit shot to finish this fight on the mat quickly, and either side could hurt each other on the feet.

Iwo is priced up enough that he’s not cheap and you’ll have to sacrifice something to get him in. Taira, Duncan, Dawson and Pantoja surround him in price and that doesn’t even include the big names at the top. So my guess is Iwo gets a little bit squeezed here just given the number of strong plays.

He’s completely boom or bust, but I think Iwo likely scores 100+ in a win just given his style. One or two early takedowns, some ground-and-pound and a finish is very much in play. Assuming he’s not chalk, he’s a really strong tournament option for upside and carries a great -140 ITD line.

I will aim to be above the field on Iwo personally but I understand the risks and an extended fight may kill off the fight as a whole.

Aslan is priced at 7.4k and is a fine upside target as well.

I don’t think he’s a great play obviously from a matchup standpoint. He won’t wrestle and he won’t land a ton of strikes. He just needs an early knockout.

By default, Aslan is very live though as we don’t know what Iwo looks like in an extended fight against a solid boxer with some power. A KO is on the table for Aslan with a +200 ITD line, and I’d bet he’ll be low owned given his recent performances.

He’s actually going to rate out pretty well as a pivot because I’m expecting the field to be potentially 2x exposure on Torres over him, while they both present similar upside cases. McKinney and Van should also be way higher owned.

If I’m already high on Iwo I don’t mind just being in on this fight as a whole. I’ll only use Aslan as a low-end secondary/upside target but on a big slate, he shouldn’t be popular and at least presents a case for 100 points in win and a way to be slightly different.

Hopefully this one works out in our favor.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Iwo by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli

Fight Odds: Abdul-Malik -1200, Trocoli +767

Odds to end ITD: -900

DraftKings Salaries: Abdul-Malik 9.8k, Trocoli 6.4k

Weight Class: 185

We have a meaningless middleweight matchup between solid prospect Mansur Abdul-Malik and Antonio Trocoli.

Abdul-Malik is 8-0-1 professionally, and he’s earned seven wins by TKO and one by submission, with only two of those wins ending past the first round. He’s coming off a stupid draw (win) after he TKOd Cody Brundage late in the fight but the pair clashed heads and Brundage quit.

Abdul-Malik is a physical force, and has generally been bombing on guys early in the first round, knocking them out. He also wrestled in college at the University of Maryland, though I don’t believe he was a standout there.

Still, you can see the wrestling technique in his game. There are only a few of his fights available on the regionals but in the first one I watched, he’s immediately suplexing his opponent. One of those takedowns that makes you say “wow”.

Honestly, that describes the bulk of his game. He’s aggressive, powerful, and has KO power in his hands. He also throws some kicks. He can wrestle, and when he gets on top, he will look to murder you with ground-and-pound.

Abdul-Malik will very likely continue to earn some wins in the UFC with this skill set and those wins will very likely come early.

My biggest complaint, however, has been that Abdul-Malik has fought way too patiently in his two most recent fights. Against Nick Klein, Abdul-Malik only attempted EIGHT strikes in the first round, and he also got rocked with a spinning backfist. Once he pushed on the gas in round two, he was able to bomb on Klein and finish the fight, but he lost round one and I questioned his strategy there.

Against Brundage, it was the same issue. He attempted 15 strikes in the first round and didn’t attempt any takedowns. He didn’t attempt any takedowns at all in the 11 minute affair, and didn’t have any impressive moments until the “finish” in round three.

I have also now seen him hurt multiple times already, including against Klein and on DWCS.

On DWCS, the fight actually went to round two and he was tested, which was nice to see. Abdul-Malik was winning early, but then actually got taken down himself in the second round once he started to slow down a bit. He didn’t look great there and ate some punches.

He did get back to his feet, got on top while defending a takedown, and then just pounded the guy out. So it was nice to see him not completely gas out and die in that scenario.

I don’t think he’s that great defensively in general. He stands kind of square and can be hit on the feet. He’s not awful but at some point he’ll get hurt and knocked out.

Overall, Abdul-Malik is this weird mix of clear skill and athleticism, and that should continue to translate into early damage. I really love his ground-and-pound and I think that’s his best weapon.

I really question his Fight IQ at this point though. His low volume striking game is horrible and a worthless way to fight. He’s landed 10 strikes or less in three of his last five rounds, and he’s not consistent to even attempt takedowns now.

So there’s just going to be variance moving forward. If he fights aggressively it can lead to damage and finishes. If not, he can easily lose rounds.

Trocoli made his UFC debut in June 2024 on short notice against Shara Magomedov, and lost by third round TKO which wasn’t a crazy surprise. Then he got guillotine choked in 1.5 minutes by Tresean Gore. He’s now 12-5 professionally, earning three wins by KO and five by submission.

Trocoli is a tough fighter to analyze. He had fought three times since 2018 prior to his UFC debut, with the most recent appearance prior to his UFC debut coming against some scrub who Trocoli choked out quickly.

Prior to that, he earned a contract on DWCS with another quick sub, and prior to that, Trocoli won a couple of regional fights by decision which are not viewable.

Prior to that, Trocoli was fighting really strong competition in Legacy FC, but that was in 2016. He lost decisions there to UFC vets Dhiego Lima and Jacob Volkmann. Then he has several wins prior to that but they were in 2014 so it barely matters.

In his UFC debut, Trocoli actually performed well in the first couple of rounds, in the sense of neutralizing Magomedov who is a super dangerous range striker. Trocoli attempted seven takedowns in the first two rounds and had about 4.5 minutes of control time against the cage, but he couldn’t really manage any offense and he never actually landed any takedowns.

In round three, he was pretty tired and Magomedov just swarmed him with a few strikes which allowed the ref to step in for the stoppage.

I actually had faith in him against Gore who I consider to be a low-level talent. Trocoli was way bigger than Gore and a better grappler on paper, but Gore just locked up a standing guillotine early and finished the fight, which is about as bad as it gets.

At this point, I don’t have a great feeling about Trocoli as a prospect. He’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and that seems to be his strength. He’s also super tall for the division at 6’5”, and I think that could come into play in certain matchups.

My guess at this point is that his grappling is good enough to only beat very weak competition, but I doubt his ceiling is much better than that. I haven’t seen anything to suggest he’s a very technical wrestler, and he’s probably defensively liable.

He’s survived many fights but is now getting finished at the UFC level, which isn’t a great sign either.

His length could definitely pose a problem for some on the feet. He just doesn’t seem to be a major power threat, and I wouldn’t bet on great minute winning ability. But I’ve seen very little helpful tape there and am open to changing my mind once we gather more data.

As far as this matchup, obviously Abdul-Malik is the superior prospect and the superior athlete. He’s also the superior wrestler on paper and should be able to dictate the fight in that way.

Gore took Trocoli down immediately and if Abdul-Malik wants to land takedowns, he should get them. The caveat is that Trocoli is a better submission grappler and black belt on paper, so it’s not as if Abdul-Malik should easily submit him on top. However, it does seem likely he could pound on Trocoli, and do damage and force the stoppage.

On the feet, I don’t have a ton of faith in Abdul-Malik. Trocoli is four inches taller but there’s also nothing to suggest he’s capable of much. Abdul-Malik hits way harder. I think he could probably just bomb on Trocoli and get a stoppage too, although it wouldn’t be shocking to see Abdul-Malik hurt again.

This is MMA and anything can happen. I don’t fully trust Abdul-Malik and if he throws 10 strikes in a round without wrestling, he’ll probably just lose. However, he should have a clear wrestling advantage, physicality advantage and power advantage, and he can probably beat Trocoli everywhere.

Maybe he plays a super passive game again and the fight extends until late. Maybe he bombs on Trocoli early for a quick stoppage. There’s a lot of potential outcomes but I think most of them result in Abdul-Malik doing damage and securing a finish at some point.

—

On DraftKings, I honestly think Abdul-Malik is closer to a fade than a phenomenal play.

We’ve now had this situation a few slates in a row. A 9.8k fighter who looks like a smash. 14 fights on the card. Multiple championship fights or five rounders.

The good news is that I’m going to have to project Abdul-Malik in the mid 20s for ownership. Even Yakhyaev last week who I thought was a smash came in at 29 percent, and Susurkaev the week before came in at 26 percent. It’s super difficult to fit them in and especially so with Merab and Pantoja being priorities.

It is actually possible we see Abdul-Malik in the low 20s or high teens, which is crazy to think about considering he’s -1200 to win and -700 to win ITD.

The issue is that he can’t match the ceiling of Merab or Pantoja. He just can’t. Even with a win in the first 60 seconds he can’t. Merab and Pantoja may not actually hit their ceilings but I have more faith in Merab to score 125+ than I do Abdul-Malik, and same for Pantoja.

PLUS, Abdul-Malik has been fighting like a total dip and has barely been active early in recent fights. There’s just zero chance I can prioritize a guy who has 15 strikes + 0 takedowns and 8 strikes + 1 takedown in each of his last RD 1s. An extended fight kills him.

Can he win in a minute or less? Sure. Can he beat the crap out of Trocoli on the mat and score 120? Sure. Is he optimal with 120? I’d guess not. It makes sense to mix him a little bit, especially with lineups where Merab loses, but I’m not particularly high on Abdul-Malik at this price tag and honestly don’t mind fading him with a limited number of lineups.

There are some really strong finishing options elsewhere on the slate and if I can’t afford him, I’m not going to sweat it. If I’m playing Van + McKinney + Aslan/Torres combos and I can afford him, he’s obviously worth some exposure.

Ultimately Abdul-Malik has a solid ceiling and is likely to score 100+ points, but he’s very expensive and I only consider him a Tier 2 target this week given the strength of the rest of the slate.

Trocoli at 6.4k is only a dart or punt and not someone I’m very interested in.

He’s a massive dog and +900 to win ITD. It’s MMA so anything can happen and we’ve seen Abdul-Malik hurt before. Using him as a small % dart throw if you’re max entering is fine.

Otherwise, he can be considered the worst play on the slate from a win equity standpoint and can be crossed off with a smaller portfolio.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Abdul-Malik by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)

Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos

Fight Odds: Santos -255, Naimov +213

Odds to end ITD: +170

DraftKings Salaries: Santos 9.1k, Naimov 7.1k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a random matchup here as Muhammad Naimov will battle Mairon Santos this weekend.

Naimov is now 5-2 in UFC affiliated fights. I basically label him as an okay wrestle-boxer.

On the feet, he isn’t great and he is pretty basic. He lands 2.61 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.45 in return. However, he is at least functional standing and can throw basic hands and combinations. He also has okay kicks which he will mix to the legs and the body. He packs a little power as well in his hands, and is somewhat physical for the weight class. I also think he is generally pretty tough and he has never lost by knockout. 

I still don’t think Naimov is that good though and I think his striking is limited, and any decent striker can have success against him. I do think he is a little better on the feet than his metrics indicate though.

I am probably most comfortable with Naimov winning fights when he has a wrestling advantage. He is an okay wrestler and fairly physical. He lands 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a decent understanding of how to complete takedowns. He can control position a bit when he is on top. However, I don’t consider him very dangerous on top and he is not a potent submission grappler and has only won by submission a few times in his career.

Naimov defends takedowns at 67 percent and is okay as a defensive grappler. He will at least try to work up and give up his back. I think he scrambles up fine. He did pay for giving his back up in his loss against Felipe Lima though. Lima put hooks in and choked Naimov out which was concerning.

Naimov is just okay. He is functional everywhere and has a little power but I don’t consider him good anywhere either. He also seems fairly tough.

Naimov will be taking on Mairon Santos. Santos is a Brazilian fighter who is 16-1 professionally. He is 25 years old and won The Ultimate Fighter a couple of years back.

Santos is your typical Brazilian dangerous power striker. He is a pretty skilled striker and lands 3.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.38. He is also decent defensively. He has some powerful strikes in all limbs and can mix in good leg kicks as well. I also think he has some powerful strikes and is knockout capable. He most recently outstruck Sodiq Yusuf to a clean decision win, but only landed 40 significant strikes in that fight. I do think he is capable of much more volume than that though. He also has a controversial win over Francis Marshall which most people believe Marshall won. It was very competitive though.

Santos doesn’t grapple offensively much. He hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC yet. I do think he could consolidate top position, but I believe striking will be his primary path to victory.

Santos only defends takedowns at 50 percent. However, I do think his takedown defense is pretty competent, and I think his get-ups are decent. He will try to work up.

I think Santos is a fine fighter. I don’t think he has enough offensive tools to make a run in this division but he is definitely a guy who can limit the offense of his opponents and be in competitive striking fights even vs good fighters.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think this is fairly competitive but I do have a mild lean towards Santos because he is a more skillful striker.

On the feet, Naimov does pack a little power and could maybe hurt Santos. I also just could see these guys fighting at a lower pace which could make this close as well. 

Still though, Santos is just more skillful as a striker and I think he is more versatile with his kicks and speed. I just think Santos is more talented on the feet. My guess is the winner of the striking will win this fight, so I am leaning towards Santos to just be the more technical striker and win here. Naimov is tough so I do expect this to extend and probably go to the scorecards though.

I still do think Naimov could steal this fight though. He could probably compete on the feet to a degree, and I do think he could use his physicality and land a takedown or two and steal a round or two. I don’t think Naimov will do much damage or advancement on the mat. However, if this is a low tepid striking fight and Naimov lands a takedown and obtains a minute of control, this could get interesting.

I still do think Santos is a good enough defensive grappler to fight Naimov off to a degree though so I will pick Santos to win as I think he will score more on the feet. 

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On DraftKings, Santos is essentially a fade for me at 9.1k.

Sure he could win by RD 1 KO but I’m really not sure that would be optimal as he’s priced between Merab and Pantoja, and others with an equal or superior ceiling. Santos throws at such a low volume that anything other than a quick knockout won’t allow him to reach a ceiling anyways.

In this particular matchup, I think Santos is better technically but he’s +275 to win ITD and the fight is -210 to go the distance, which is scary. He’s earned wins of 55 and 57 in his last two fights and his only KO scored in the low 90s.

My guess is he’ll be around 10 percent owned this week. I don’t think the public will want to deal with this one and I agree. If you want a place to be contrarian, Santos will be I’m sure, but it’s not really a spot I like as I don’t think he can separate from this range often.

Naimov is priced at 7.1k and I think he’s a viable low-end target.

I’m not a huge fan of his, and I don’t want a lot of exposure, but he’s already beaten Nathaniel Wood and Santos barely does anything. Santos has landed 40 and 58 strikes in his last two fights and a lot of people think he didn’t deserve one of those wins.

There’s just no way I can be comfortable in Santos while he produces such little offense. Naimov is physical and powerful and can wrestle a bit. It’s possible this fight is competitive.

So at a cheap price tag, I’m fine with a dose of exposure to Naimov. However, I still have major concerns about his ceiling, and he’s only +450 to win ITD. 

He’s simply a mix-in for when I need a cheap fighter and don’t want to play into the chalk, at what should probably be a low public ownership.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)