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Today we’ll be sharing four (4) of our favorite plays on PrizePicks, two from myself and one from our team member AJ Schullo!
Manon Fiorot OVER 67.5 Significant Strikes
*Written by AJ Schullo
In a fight that seems likely to be contested on the feet and go roughly 12.5 minutes, I like Manon Fiorot’s chances of comfortably hitting her over 67.5 strike total.
Fiorot’s opponent, Mayra Bueno Silva, has not landed a single takedown in the UFC as she too is content to strike. Also, Fiorot comes from a Muay Thai background, though she’s landed a takedown in each of her UFC fights but with limited control time.
On the feet, Fiorot attempts 16 significant strikes per minute, which is very high. Bueno Silva is defensively poor, absorbing 4.89 significant strikes per minute with a 47% striking defense.
These metrics imply that Fiorot should land 106 significant strikes in 12.5 minutes, indicating there’s a tremendous amount of value with this prop, so yeah, I love this prop as it’s my favorite on the board.
Editor’s Note: I also think you can consider the OVER on 0.5 takedowns for Fiorot. She may not be interested in wrestling here, but she has landed 1 takedown in both of her two UFC bouts, and her opponent has given up at least one takedown to each of her past four opponents.
Ramazan Emeev OVER 3 Takedowns
Wrestling specialist Ramazan Emeev is taking on Danny Roberts this weekend, and will likely have no choice but to use his takedown game to secure the victory.
Emeev has landed 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a 29 percent accuracy, meaning he attempts approximately 8 takedowns per fight. He also doesn’t have a high-level submission grappling game, and has won all five of his UFC bouts by decision.
This bout with Roberts is -155 to go the full 15 minute distance which is promising, and Roberts only defends takedowns at 53 percent. Emeev has landed four takedowns in each of his last two fights, and Roberts has given up six takedowns to an opponent in the past.
I wouldn’t consider this prop a lock, but Emeev is -330 to win, and will need takedowns. He’s likely to land a few over 15 minutes and secure the tie, and I think he’s more likely to earn 4, than 2, considering his limited path to victory.
Ludovit Klein UNDER 2 Takedowns
*Written by AJ Schullo
Ludovit Klein is coming off a performance where he landed four takedowns, but in the majority of his tape, he’s choosing to stand at range and strike.
Even if Klein wants to take Landwehr down, Landwehr has a relatively decent takedown defense of 85%, and has yet to be taken down more than once in the UFC.
There’s also a legitimate chance this fight ends early, considering Klein’s wins in round 1 prop is +175, indicating 36.4%, which is solid. The fight as a whole is -155 to go UNDER 2.5 rounds as well.
If this fight finishes within round 1, it seems likely it was due to damage done in the standup rather than consistent takedowns considering both fighters prefer to keep the fight upright. And even if the fight extends a bit, it feels unlikely that Klein is able to secure 3 or more takedowns.
Jim Miller UNDER 40.5 Significant Strikes
One prop I am mildly interested in is the UNDER 40.5 significant strikes for Jim Miller.
The total feels low on paper, but Miller is only landing 2.65 significant strikes per minute. Even in a fight that may last 15 minutes, his significant strike projection would only be 39.75.
Furthermore, Miller has seen a sharp decline in significant strikes landed in the past few years. He has actually only topped the 40.5 number one time in his last 10 bouts. In his last 30 minutes of action, Miller has landed 25 significant strikes in total.
I expect Miller will be looking to wrestle in this matchup against Erick Gonzalez, and if he has success, there may be opportunities for another early finish. If the fight extends a full 15 minutes, I suppose Miller could land a few extra strikes and top his projection, but I feel he’s more likely to fall short given his historical averages.