Daily Fantasy MMA

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze

Happy New Year friends, and welcome back to the start of another season of MMA, which begins this weekend with UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze.

Typically, I’ll send out 2 written newsletters per week, one with SuperDraft content and one with PrizePicks content. Unfortunately the card this week has been mashed around, and I feel it’s better to condense the information for you all.

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SuperDraft Quick Picks

Champion Options – Brian Kelleher (2.05x), TJ Brown (2.1x)

As usual, we’re most interested in using cheap fighters at the Champion slot, because they carry the highest multipliers and have the most upside in victories. It’s always a risk, but targeting high multipliers at CHP will give you the best opportunity to take down a tournament solo.

This week we’re blessed with a couple big favorites at the bottom end in Brian Kelleher and TJ Brown. Kelleher is -305 to win and Brown is -235 to win, which is extraordinarily rare for this range. I don’t think we need to play games, and I personally rate out these fighters as the best options on the slate.

You can look to be sneaky by targeting a Calvin Kattar type in Champion instead, but Kelleher and Brown provide some of the highest upside and safety on the entire slate, based on their betting odds and multipliers. If I’m not using one at CHP, I still think they make for valuable FLEX options as well.

Flex Options – Brito vs. Algeo, Collier vs. Sherman

Two fights that I have moderate interest in for the FLEX spot on SuperDraft, are Joanderson Brito vs. Bill Algeo, and Jake Collier vs. Chase Sherman.

Brito and Algeo expect to fight at a high pace. Brito has some knockout potential, and significant takedown potential, which puts him squarely in play at 1.2x. He’ll be far more popular than Algeo though, and I think Algeo is a sneaky option here at 1.3x.

In a win, Algeo is very likely to land a high number of significant strikes, and he has finishing potential as well. Algeo is only +120 to win, which means his chances of getting the victory seem realistic enough to take a shot given the ownership and 1.3x multiplier.

Collier and Sherman actually project to go the distance, but that’s not a terrible thing considering both fighters are capable of landing strikes at a super high rate. Collier has topped 12 sig. strikes in each of his last 2 decisions, and Sherman has topped 100 significant strikes himself 3 times in the UFC.

And as Heavyweights, there’s still a chance the winner is able to hurt the opponent and win by knockout. The bottom line here is that there’s plenty of volume potential for the winner, along with finishing potential, and that equates to upside on SD. I don’t have a strong lean between the two – Collier has higher upside based on his style, but at 1.2x, you can argue Sherman is preferred given his 1.3x number and better ITD line.

PrizePicks Top Spots

Round Props

One prop I have interest in on PrizePicks is the UNDER 10 Minutes prop on Brandon Royval for his fight against Rogerio Bontorin. The fight is currently lined at -150 to NOT START Round 3 on various sportsbooks, so I am happy to take the UNDER 10 Minutes prop here without paying extra juice. 

Fantasy Score Props

Two props that interest me mildly are the OVERS on Brandon Royval 80.5 Fantasy Points, and on Jake Collier 70.5 Fantasy Points.

Royval is currently -170 to win against Bontorin, and +100 to win ITD, which is a very strong finishing prop. If he’s able to secure the finish, by knockout or submission, I think he’s extremely likely to top that 80.5 number. Even in a decision victory, Royval has room to work with because he has striking and knockdown equity, as well as grappling equity.

Collier is somewhat of a risk because he’s only -140 to win, but 70.5 isn’t a big number to pass. Especially because he has KO potential or potential to land more than 100 significant strikes. Either method of victory is likely to score enough to hit the OVER on his fantasy score. The biggest challenge will actually be securing the win, but backing a -140 favorite should still give us value longterm.

Significant Striking Props

Several fighters are making their UFC debuts this weekend which makes identifying props tough, but there’s still a couple names I am eying here.

I think Chookagian has potential to top her 70.5 number, as does Collier at 75.5, as does Chikadze at 63.5. My two favorite options are probably Chookagian and Chikadze.

Chookagian is very likely to fight for the full 15 minute distance, and she’s topped her current projection in four of her last five wins. She also topped her projection last time she fought Jennifer Maia, who is her opponent once again. There’s probably not a ton of value on the line but it’s a prop that I think has a very reasonable chance to hit.

Chikadze OVER 63.5 is tough because he’s never topped 65 strikes in his UFC career. He also could win by early KO in this matchup, which would obviously cash the under.

But this fight is about even to go over 3.5 rounds, in which case, I don’t think it’d be shocking if we ended up seeing a full 25 minute battle from him and Kattar. It at least gives us upside, and more rounds to work with than Chikadze has ever seen before. I do expect if the fight lasts that long, we’ll comfortably see him top this projection.