We’re back with some of my favorite PrizePicks props for the weekend slate!
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Similar to a few weeks ago, I like a bunch of the takedown props this card and that’s probably where I’ll be focusing.
Darren Elkins OVER 1.5 Takedowns
Darren Elkins is facing Tristan Connelly on Saturday and I think he has a decent shot to score 2 or more takedowns. Elkins is actually averaging 2.65 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and he attempts them at a high rate as well.
Connelly is defending takedowns at 70 percent, but he’s given up takedowns to each of his first two UFC opponents. I suppose could choose to strike here instead, but his durability is very questionable and he will be safest on the mat. I expect another wrestling attack from Elkins and think he’s likely to land 2 or more in this matchup.
Tatsuro Taira OVER 1.5 Takedowns
This prop is risky because it’s possible Tatsuro Taira could land one takedown on Carlos Candelario and lock up a submission, but I’m not sure that’s the most likely outcome either.
Candelario fought twice on DWCS, and gave up 8 and 4 takedowns. His takedown defense isn’t very good, and he has been mounted, and put in dangerous scenarios. He’s also scrambled up well enough. Taira is a submission grappler and likes to take the back, and I expect him to have physical advantages in this matchup.
Taira is extremely likely to land 1 takedown, and as long as he doesn’t instantly submit Candelario, he could rack up several more. It’s a risk but one I’m willing to take.
Gina Mazany OVER 2.5 and Grant Dawson OVER 2.5
Playing Over 2.5 props come with more risk because you simply need more actions to occur. I’m less confident in these because of it, but think both Gina Mazany and Grant Dawson have real potential to top 2.5 takedowns landed.
Mazany is fighting Shanna Young, who is not a good wrestler and has given up 2, 3 and 2 takedowns in her last three fights. The only reason it hasn’t been more is because she is weak on the mat and has been finished. It’s possible Mazany could finish her too.
But Mazany averages more than 4 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and will definitely be wrestling here. I think her securing 2 takedowns is very likely, and in an extended fight, she could easily land 3-5.
Grant Dawson should have early takedown success against Jared Gordon, who only defends at 50 percent. I don’t think Dawson is likely to finish Gordon, considering he has a brown belt in BJJ under John Danaher and has never been subbed. It is possible Dawson gets tired though, or stops trying. I think he’ll secure a couple takedowns, and if the fight extends, 3-5 is possible as well.
There isn’t value compared to the betting line, but I’m interested in the UNDER 14.75 Minutes on Daniel Da Silva against Francisco Figueiredo. Silva is 11-2 and has never gone the distance in a win or a loss. He is very dangerous early, but like in his last UFC bout, showed that if the fight gets past round one, he will slow down dramatically. Neither side are elite talents but I think this fight is more likely to end ITD one way or the other than not.
If you play Underdog Fantasy, I like the OVER on 0.5 takedowns for Krzysztof Jotko against Gerald Meerschaert. Jotko is averaging more than 1 takedown landed per fight, and Meerschaert only defends at 35 percent. It probably will only take one takedown attempt for Jotko to secure it, and because of that, I think betting the Over is a smart play. Romanov OVER 1.5 Takedowns and -6.5 Sig. Strikes vs. Sherman, and Dawson -1 Takedowns vs. Gordon are a couple other props I have interest in.