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Race Breakdown
The Las Vegas GP has given us the wildest slate of the season. I would expect nothing less. Those willing to gamble a little bit might end up hitting big on this slate.
The wet weather qualifying shook up the running order. It allowed some drivers to qualify higher than expected but it also buried some expected top 10 drivers deep in the field.
There are several ways this slate can go and it all starts with Verstappen vs Norris.
This track type has been significantly better for Verstappen than Norris this year. So naturally, I am anticipating a Verstappen win. Also, it makes no sense for Norris to push hard for this race win. Let Max have it and bank 2nd place. His eyes should be fully on the championship and Piastri, who is currently closer in points.
But let us start by assuming Norris wins. This would likely deliver 10 more points for the McLaren constructor than I am currently projecting and would likely make Norris at Captain with McLaren constructor the optimal play. You could have a cheap captain like Lawson or Sainz with Norris at flex though. The main point is that a Norris win helps to massively boost the McLaren constructor.
If Verstappen wins, then it opens up a plethora of possibilities. Tsunoda is very unlikely to finish in the points so the Red Bull constructor is capped at about 35 points. Not great for the price. McLaren could outscore that but McLaren are ridiculously pricey. Then we have to factor in that both Racing Bulls are projected for a top 8 finish (At least by me) and thus would score well. Also, Sainz is projected for a top 6 finish but that could be a 4th or 5th place finish. If Albon is able to claw his way into the top 10 then Williams could be another cheap constructor play that hits for around 17-20 points. Also, their upside can be greater if one of the top 6 guys has an issue. Let’s say Russell crashes out, then both RB drivers would gain spots and 4 points for the constructor. Same would go for Sainz and Albon. In a clean race, Albon will struggle to crack the top 10 but it is possible.
What I think you will find is that in a Verstappen win, you will be straddling a line of Racing Bulls vs Red Bull constructor. Williams could be a pivot off of both, especially if Sainz can pull off a top 4 finish somehow.
Cheap captains are in play such as Sinaz, Lawson, and Hadjar. Hulkenber, Ocon, or Bearman could be sneak contrarian plays for that as well but they would need a strong top 10 finish.
Top Captain Plays
Norris, Verstappen, Lawson, Sainz, Hadjar
Team by Team Breakdowns
Alpine F1 Team $3,000
Franco Colapinto $4,500 $3,000 Starting: 15
Pierre Gasly $6,000 $4,000 Starting: 10
I am not super interested in the Alpine drivers this week. They feel like a good example of drivers who over delivered due to qualifying being in the wet. Colapinto is cheap and I suppose he could somehow be optimal due to pricing restrictions but he would have to stay top 17 and that might be a challenge. I would only play him if Norris is the captain play in your lineup or if you are building for the scenario where Gasly fails to finish or has an issue.
Gasly at 4k is playable. The price is actually the only reason I have him as a playable driver. He has floor concerns since I see him dropping spots and he could only score 3 or 4 points. The negative PD risk is real. However, if you look at the 4k or below range, there is nobody else that stands a strong chance of outsourcing 3 points. Ocon has the best shot because he is in a 50/50 battle with his teammate and Yuki could get some PD points. So technically, even if Gasly does score 3 or 4 points, that might be enough as a salary saver.
There is a certain style of build that you should use Gasly in. He could finish top 12 and I could be completely wrong but I believe the speed of Albon, Antonelli, and Hamilton should beat him. The Haas guys should be decent. Hulk should beat him. I am overall worried about his optimal prospects, especially because you can build lineups with Lawson at 4.4k being the cheapest guy.
Just to make sure I am not too negative, I am definitely ok with Gasly as a play. He has value but he could score too little and not be optimal. He is gonna work best in lineups where you need the extra salary. Maybe where you play Hadjar over Lawson. Etc.
I do not see viability in this constructor
Aston Martin F1 Team $3,000
Fernando Alonso $9,000 $6,000 Starting: 7
Lance Stroll $4,800 $3,200 Starting: 12
I am fully fading these two and seeing where I land. The Aston Martin car has been bad on this track type, especially for race pace. They start too high and the floors are bad. Alonso needs a top 9 finish and I do not believe he gets that. I would be a bit stunned. You can ignore me and play him if you want. Perhaps Antonelli and Hamilton can’t catch him. Maybe the RB drivers aren’t quick enough. I feel pretty strongly though that Alonso drops outside the top 10 and he costs too much.
Stroll should drop spots too and will not beat Alonso unless Alonso has an issue. The only reason to play him is as a salary punt and hope you get lucky with that Alonso DNF.
I do not see viability in this constructor
Ferrari $9,900
Lewis Hamilton $11,400 $7,600 Starting: 20
Charles Leclerc $14,400 $9,600 Starting: 9
Leclerc is in play in certain lineup styles. The obvious path is that he drives forward for the top 5 finish he should get. You either pair him as the only other top tier play with the race winner or you are playing a cheap constructor like Racing Bulls and that allows you to get the race winner and two top tier guys like Russell and Leclerc.
There is a secondary nature to this play simply based on how F1 lineup constructions work but I like this play a decent amount overall. Keep in mind that 9th to 5th adds 2 PD points as well so if Russell is P4 then those two would score the same amount. I expect Russell to be P3 though and I do not think Piastri will be a threat to him in the dry. Point I was trying to make is that it is not as clearcut that Russell is significantly better, especially when you factor in salary. Saving 1.4k and only scoring 2 less points might be a good thing. I am rather high on Leclerc honestly.
Hamilton is fadable. He needs a Leclerc DNF and to finish top 10. Definitely possible but it is a very exact scenario.
I do not see viability in this constructor
Haas F1 Team $3,100
Esteban Ocon $5,700 $3,800 Starting: 13
Oliver Bearman $7,200 $4,800 Starting: 14
This is one of the two ultra competitive but also ultra important to the slate teammate matchups. The winner of this matchup will have a significant impact on things.
I want to start with Ocon because he could have the biggest impact. Ocon has the ability to score 6 points at just 3.8k. I don’t feel like anyone from 4k on down matches that. Maybe Gasly as I talked about above but I am worried about Gasly scoring negative PD. Everyone else in this range are probably +500 to beat their teammates on this slate.
You do not have to play Ocon. Lineups can be made without being below 4k in salary but I do think Ocon has a solid shot in this race and that you should have moderate exposure to him.
Bearman has been kicking Ocon’s ass lately but a lot of that has been on Saturday’s during qualifying. We haven’t seen them start near each other lately and we haven’t seen them battle. I am still of the belief that Bearman is quicker and will get preferential treatment but there is a very specific reason why Haas might favor Ocon in this race.
Haas are only 2 points behind Aston Martin in the constructors championship and that would be a roughly 10 million dollar boost for the team if they can beat Aston. I would not be shocked to see Bearman put into a defensive role if Ocon gets a great start and is in position to challenge for points.
If we ignore that, Bearman should be the favorite to win this matchup and I like getting a decent amount of ownership on him as well.
The best part about these two is that P10 or P11 is all they need for positive PD points and that is within the range of outcomes for them. For instance, if you play Bearman, then you are expecting him to beat Ocon. Thats one spot. Stroll should suck, thats two spots, maybe Gasly has bad race pace like I think he will, thats 3 and +2 in PD. Hulkenberg is also beatable. Maybe a top 10 guy has a DNF. All you need is 11th for 8 points from Bearman. Gasly getting 10th would be 9 points.
Very fringe constructor ability here. I didn’t want to completely rule it out. It probably doesn’t hit but envision a scenario where on lap 1 there is a wreck with Lawson, Alonso, and Hadjar or something where 3 top 10 guys fall out. Plus you lose another cheap constructor play. Haas is probably not playable.
McLaren $14,000
Lando Norris $20,400 $13,600 Starting: 1
Oscar Piastri $17,400 $11,600 Starting: 5
LANDOOOOOOOOOOO is peaking at the right time. I have mentioned numerous times this year that this track type is not their best. They are too downforce oriented. That extra downforce is a gift though during a wet qualifying session. Keep all this in mind while I proceed to talk shit on this play.
I feel really confident in Verstappen winning. Thus, I don’t really like the Norris play. HOWEVER, there is one important caveat to that. If a cheap captain hits like Racing Bulls then you can not only play a race winning Verstappen at Captain but you can also play Norris P2 at Flex. You can also go cheap captain and get three top tier guys including a P2 Norris.
There is a standard Norris wins build where you play him at captain or you drop him to flex and play a cheap captain. You would pair him with the McLaren play in this scenario. If he doesn’t win then the McLaren play will struggle to hit. It would need a double podium.
Piastri is only to be played as a super contrarian play. If Norris has an issue then perhaps he can get the defeat your teammate points and a podium finish. In a standard race, I doubt he has anything for Norris.
McLaren constructor is useable but I hate spending that salary for 40 points. I would say to only use that play in the scenario where Lando does win.
Mercedes $11,000
George Russell $16,500 $11,000 Starting: 4
Andrea Kimi Antonelli $12,000 $8,000 Starting: 17
Russell is a really good secondary top tier play. He has 2nd place upside. Hell, he could even have a fluke race winning upside. He is 11k which is a tall price to pay which is why I mentioned the Leclerc play above being a similar score at a discount..
If you can afford Russell then I like mixing him in. His optimal viability is likely dependent on what the rest of the slate looks like. For instance, if Ocon and Lawson win their teammate matchups then they will really open things up salary wise. If Racing Bulls drivers can both score well and that constructor hits then you can afford Russell easily. If Hadjar and all the higher salary guys hit and Red Bull or McLaren is the best constructor then you are unlikely to afford Russell.
Antonelli feels like a fade. Only way he hits is if Russell crashes out oor he finishes P7 and the salary lines up perfectly. Basically 7th gives him 5 PD points plus 6 for 7th for 11 total points. Seems like it would be outdone by other combos though
Mercedes is not really viable. You should only play it if you think Russell wins or if you think Norris wins and Piastri crashes out plus you would need Antonelli top 10. I would not play it.
Red Bull Racing $9,400
Max Verstappen $20,100 $13,400 Starting: 2
Yuki Tsunoda $5,100 $3,400 Starting: 19
I have Verstappen winning. I also have him being the best Captain play however there is an argument for going cheap captain as well. If Verstappen leads all the laps and gets the fast lap then he can really put up a big score and that is why you would want him at captain. If he leads half the laps and doesn’t get fast lap then perhaps a cheap captain like Sainz or Lawson/Hadjar could allow you to get another top tier scorer such as Norris.
Overall, Verstappen is my favorite play on the slate and I expect him to be tough to defend for Norris.
Yuki is also in play however there are things you need to consider. He carries place differential equity that could get him to 3 points. Nobody below 4k really should challenge that. Only Ocon if he beats Bearman or Gasly in this range project better. Tsunoda as a salary punt also fits in areas where those guys don’t. Worth a sprinkle in certain lineup scenarios.
Red Bull is my favorite constructor play however they are not a lock and there are other ways to build. Max winning is a requirement. You would also like the fast lap for Max and as many laps led as possible. Racing Bulls could out value this play. So could Williams in a more extreme scenario.
Sauber $3,000
Nico Hulkenberg $6,900 $4,600 Starting: 11
Gabriel Bortoleto $5,400 $3,600 Starting: 18
Hulkenberg is a solid play. Should beat his teammate at a very high rate. Fringe top 10 upside. Could drop to 14th and score -2 PD points. He isn’t a must play but he is a solid option in general. He probably doesn’t have the same upside as others in this range but we might need one 6 point scorer like this in our builds and he could be that guy.
Bortoleto is nothing but a salary saver. Shouldn’t beat his teammate but can maybe finish P15 and score 3 points. Worth a look as a punt play.
I do not see viability in this constructor
RB F1 Team $3,400
Isack Hadjar $8,100 $5,400 Starting: 8
Liam Lawson $6,600 $4,400 Starting: 6
Racing Bulls are the most important team on this slate. If they both finish top 8 then the constructor could be the optimal play. Also, whoever wins this matchup should put up 10 or 12 points and crush. You can easily afford either side on this slate.
I am picking Lawson because he has won this matchup in 6 of the last 10 races vs Hadjar. Also, he starts further ahead and this is his best track type. If he beats Hadjar at this price then he should be optimal.
Lawson has EXTREME cheap captain potential if he can beat Hadjar. Could be the winning play but he could also ruin lineups if he doesn’t beat his teammate.
We must not ignore Hadjar. Lawson projection from me will get us on Lawson in a ton of places but Hadjar could just as easily beat lawson and put up 12 points himself. Elite upside play but also could be a dud at the price if he doesn’t beat his teammate. You will want a moderate amount of both guys.
Racing Bulls could be the winning constructor play. 7th and 8th for both guys puts this play within range. If one of them finishes 6th then that would only boost that potential. I will have a significant amount of lineups with this but it is important to remember that they could finish 9th and 10th and the play might suck.
Based on everything I have seen and know, I really like this play on a slate where there are no elite top tier constructor plays.
Williams $3,200
Alexander Albon $8,700 $5,800 Starting: 16
Carlos Sainz $7,800 $5,200 Starting: 3
Sainz is an elite play. He finished on the podium in Baku which is a similar track type. He starts at the front and even if he drops to 6th because Piastri and Leclerc beat him, he will still be an elite play. However, a top 5 finish would be an unreal score and should see him as a lock for the optimal. Elite upside. Great captain play to save salary.
HOWEVER…. It is Carlos Sainz. He is a moron. Do not rule out that he crashes out because he is a MORON.
This is why you have to give some consideration to Albon. Albon has positive PD potential. He has top 10 equity, and Sainz crashing out could put Albon on the optimal. Extreme pivot off his teammate but worth it because Sainz is a dumb dumb.
Williams has fringe constructor viability. It is the same play as Racing Bulls but has a harder path. Albon finishing in the points is a must. It would also be beneficial if Sainz can finish top 5. Both are plausible though, especially if one of those Racing Bulls guys crash out. May be a sneaky contrarian constructor.