UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa (5/16/26)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

MAIN CARD

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa

Fight Odds: Allen -132, Costa +112

Odds to end ITD: +105

DraftKings Salaries: Allen 8.6k, Costa 7.6k

Weight Class: 145

As the dust settles from UFC 328, we’ll head into a short one-week break after UFC Vegas 117, headlined by Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa.

Costa has stormed his way up the division in the past two years, winning six consecutive fights which includes back-to-back first round knockouts over Dan Ige and Morgan Charriere. He’ll take an undoubted step up in competition again here versus the youthful veteran Arnold Allen.

I honestly wasn’t that high on Costa prior to his recent stretch, as he went 1-2 to start his UFC career and was finished by both Thiago Mosies and Steve Garcia. But those major durability questions I had have faded, as Costa has proven his toughness and grinded out some quality wins.

Currently, I consider Costa to be a solid kickboxer who is best at kicking distance. He lands 4.38 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 2.97 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate.

We’ve seen moderate volume from Costa and in two of his three decisions, he’s landed 100 and 102 significant strikes. He does carry power as well, but I think he’s likely overrated as a knockout artist currently. Landing flush head kicks and spinning wheel kick KOs are fantastic but not necessarily predictive.

Still, Costa is a creative striker and dangerous in that regard. He’s not easy to track down. When he does get tracked down, I don’t consider him as strong in the boxing realm, and I still have mild concerns about him getting hurt.

Costa isn’t a particularly strong grappler. He lands 2 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good, but he’s only earning 3 minutes of control time per 15 minutes which is not super great. He’s also defending takedowns at a poor 58 percent and I don’t love his wrestling defense.

He is a fine submission grappler though who can threaten with a guillotine, and he can scramble up to his feet OK. He’s given up some big wrestling totals though, including 13 total takedowns to Julian Erosa, Christian Rodriguez and Shayilan Neurdanbieke.

I think Costa is a fine mid-level fighter at the moment. He has some round winning capability on the feet, at kicking range specifically, and he has some knockout equity. I think he’ll likely be outmatched by the upper tier of the division from a physicality and boxing and wrestling standpoint. I’m also not completely sure how his cardio will hold up over five rounds.

He’ll be taking on Arnold Allen, who is only now 32 years old but has been competing in the UFC since 2015.

In that stretch, Allen has won 11 fights and lost 3, though he’s lost 3 of his last 4. To be fair, his recent losses have come to Jean Silva, Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway, so that’s nothing to be ashamed about.

I have very mixed feelings about Allen at this stage of his career. I consider him a fine, technical fighter who can compete with most in the division, but he truly lacks any sort of upside whatsoever. I’m also not convinced he cares as much as other fighters in terms of climbing the rankings or becoming the champion, and I think that attitude is kind of reflected in his performances.

That’s not to say he lacks killer instinct or whatever, but he’s just not very aggressive. Of his 14 fights, there’s only been one time where I thought wow what an amazing performance, which came against Dan Hooker in 2022. Allen decided to go for the kill in that fight, chased Hooker down, landed 49 significant strikes in 2.5 minutes and knocked him out.

What’s funny is that IN ALLEN’S TEN OTHER WINS, he has failed to reach the 49 strike mark seven times, most of which did go to decision.

In his last three fights, Allen has increased his workload slightly, and he’s landed 56, 61 and 59 significant strikes over three rounds. But a bit earlier in his career, he’d land 21, 37, 29, 32, 31 and 23 strikes over three rounds which is just too low.

Allen is a decent boxer and a very tough guy. He has good cardio and durability, and he likes to work as a slow paced neutralizer where he can limit exchanges. I’ve noted how few strikes he lands, and he sits at 3.47 landed per minute, but he only absorbs 3.04 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate.

If Allen gets his way, he’ll jab you and kick you in the legs, and outland you 50 to 30 over three rounds and take a decision.

Allen doesn’t grapple a whole lot either. He lands 0.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 71 percent. He’s been taken down a bunch recently by Evloev and Silva but he limited control well and is a fine submission grappler.

I think Allen is a good guy and a good fighter, and I like him best as a mid-level, neutralizing round winner. It’s hard to bet on him to exceed those expectations though without more of a volume or wrestling threat.

This is a weird matchup to analyze because of the Allen side of things. There’s just no way for me to be that confident in him because he lands so few strikes, and therefore, doesn’t give himself a great shot at a knockout, and he can fail to separate in rounds.

With that said, his floor is extremely high from a consistency, technical and defensive perspective, and I trust him to fight his game pretty well for five full rounds.

I view Costa as the better kicker of the two, and the higher volume fighter on paper. Allen is the better boxer of the two, and he likely has better cardio and durability. I suppose either man can take down the other but I don’t really expect grappling exchanges to mean much in this fight.

I think the most fair pick is Allen by decision. He’s already gone five rounds with Holloway and has fought so much better competition. He’s not likely to get knocked out, and he might have some KO equity of his own.

I do think Costa can compete with him just fine, especially early, while he’s fresh, and while he can maintain kicking distance. I also don’t think Costa will land as much as usual given Allen’s defensive tendencies, so we could easily be looking at 15-20 strikes a piece in rounds which should pose questions for the judges.

If Costa’s cardio does hold up and he can push a bit higher pace, he’ll have a chance to win some rounds or swing a round on an exciting moment. The fight is -160 to go Over 4.5 rounds here though so I’m not totally sure this will be an all-time great fight. I’ll lean Allen given historic competition but I don’t feel great about it.

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On DraftKings, I really don’t feel great about this fight in comparison to most recent weeks.

How can I? Allen is scoring 10.7 DK points per 5 minutes which is extremely low, and sets him up for an 80-90 point DK score in a win, which may be the most likely scenario.

Allen is also averaging 71 DK points per win, which is extremely low, and THE ONLY TIME he’s scored above 82 points, was that one KO win over Hooker.

In this matchup, Allen is +190 to win ITD which is OK. I have expressed lots of concerns with Costa being knocked out in the past, primarily due to his early UFC fights. I do think Allen can knock him out. I just can’t feel confident in that outcome, nor can I feel confident it comes early.

Allen is priced at 8.6k this week, and I’m guessing he’ll have the lowest IF WIN projection for a main event fighter this year. The good news is that 80-90 points in a decision may still be enough, and he still does carry some finishing equity. So it’s not as if I view this as a pure fade.

However, I do think labeling it as more of a secondary target than a primary target makes sense. There’s just too much concern for this fight to extend, go the distance, and Allen to fail to score 100 DK points. On a 13 fight slate, I don’t see how he’s a true priority.

I’m also guessing he won’t be as popular as usual and may end up in the 30 percent range, rather than the mid 40s, which feels about right. His odds have also fallen a ton this week which also doesn’t surprise me, and I think will contribute to a mid 30s ownership while Costa may see mid 40s.

I’ll still aim for some secondary exposure with a moderate portfolio and I don’t consider him an awful play, especially if he’s low owned. But if you’re trying to win 1st place in a large GPP, I don’t know that Allen is super to be on that winning lineup and fading this fight on a bunch of teams feels very viable.

Costa is priced at 7.6k and is more likely to be optimal in a win, but I’m honestly not sure he’s much more likely to score 100 DK points.

While Allen doesn’t score much, he doesn’t allow much either. Max Holloway scored 89 DK points in a five round win over Allen, think about that for a second.

While I think Costa’s win is more likely based in volume, I still don’t think he’s tremendously likely to win by KO or have grappling success. He is only +325 to win by decision.

I’d guess Costa can land 100-140 significant strikes in a five round win perhaps, but that’s still only 80-90 DK points. At 7.6k, it’s much more likely Costa ends up optimal than Allen if each score 90 DK points in a win, but it is still possible that a win for Costa doesn’t get him on the winning lineup.

I only view Costa as a secondary target this week. I think you could argue he’s the value side from a DK price standpoint, but it’s just not a great matchup to score fantasy points and there’s still a good chance he loses. I’d like some secondary exposure to him at this price tag, but I’m a little worried his public ownership gets out of hand with the line movement and I don’t mind fading the fight somewhat often this week, and simply hoping we get a decision.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Allen by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos

Fight Odds: Santos -170, Choi +145

Odds to end ITD: -180

DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.4k, Choi 7.8k

Weight Class: 145

We should have a firefight co-main event between action brawlers Dooho Choi and Daniel Santos.

Choi has had a super fun, albeit short career, though he’s already in the UFC Hall-of-Fame for his fight against Cub Swanson in 2016. Choi debuted in 2014 and rattled off three consecutive knockouts before facing Swanson.

After that, Choi was knocked out by both Jeremy Stephens and Charles Jourdain, before taking a mandatory leave of absence to join the Korean military in 2019. He returned in 2023 and has since gone 2-0-1, most recently defeating Nate Landwehr.

Choi is a brawler and a super fun staple of this division. He’s got fast hands and he’s willing to bang. He lands 4.67 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 4.02 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.

There isn’t a whole lot more to say in regards to Choi’s striking. He is willing to go toe to toe with you, and he can dish out and take some damage. We’ve seen the highs and lows in his style, which has led to quick knockouts, and some ugly knockout losses.

Since his return, wrestling has been a bigger part of his game, and he’s coming off a win over Landwehr in which he landed four takedowns and beat Landwehr up for a late stoppage. While I like the performance, Landwehr is bad and I don’t want to overrate beating up on a guy like that.

Choi also defends takedowns at 47 percent and can be susceptible to better wrestlers. Kyle Nelson took him down five times in 2023 in the draw, and Algeo took him down twice early before getting knocked out in round two.

Ultimately, Choi falls into the kill or be killed type of mold. He can win a striking based decision, and wrestle a bit, but the majority of his success is tied to damage. All five of his UFC wins are by KO, and he’s been hurt badly in each of his three losses.

Santos has surprisingly worked his way to four straight wins after getting beaten up in his UFC debut by Julio Arce.

That debut proved to be a tough stylistic matchup though as Arce is a legit technical striker, and Santos lacks defensive prowess. His wins since have been impressive though, which include knockouts over John Castaneda and JooSang Yoo, and decisions over JeongYeong Lee and Johnny Munoz.

Santos is an aggressive muay thai fighter from the Chute Boxe camp, and he’s exhausted opponents with his pressure and pacing. He lands 4.76 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.03 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate.

To be fair, a bulk of the strikes absorbed came from the debut against Arce who outlanded him 127 to 49.

Arce hasn’t been the only one to have success though. Castaneda hurt Santos early and had him wobbled, which resulted in a pretty dominant first round. By the second round though, Castaneda was very tired and Santos wouldn’t let him breathe, which eventually resulted in a knockout.

Santos has also been able to showcase some of his grappling pedigree where he’s a BJJ black belt, and he lands 3 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at 6 landed against Lee. He defends takedowns at 73 percent.

I’m not exceptionally high on Santos as a prospect. He’s a bit small, and he’ll be a few inches smaller than Choi again this weekend. He’s not super defensively sound, and he can be hurt.

However, Santos is tough and has never been knocked out. His pressure is elite, and he can wear down and break opponents. I’ve loved his ability to mix in takedowns and that only adds to his pacing. Tired fighters will likely continue to get overwhelmed and hurt by him, though they’ll have a real chance for success early in fights.

As far as this matchup, it’s hard to project anything other than some sort of brawl. Santos is willing to get in your face and eat shots in order to make his game work. Choi is known for brawling, dishing out and taking damage.

I think Choi is the harder hitter of the two, and possibly the more likely fighter to have success early. I like his boxing, and his power and his size. However, if Choi can’t get Santos out of here early, I worry about him taking damage.

Of the two, I’d have to consider Santos the more durable fighter which is largely the only reason he’s favored here. Choi can be hurt and knocked out and we’ve never seen Santos knocked out.

Additionally, Choi can give up takedowns and I think Santos is the more likely fighter to have top game success.

The problem for me is that betting on durability feels shaky. I do think Choi can hurt Santos. I also think Choi has acceptable cardio. I’m not sold Santos just demolishes Choi if he gets to top position.

There are a lot of ways this fight can go, and I’d consider it one of the higher variance fights of the night.

My best guess though is that Choi will have early success, and his best chance to win will come while he can keep Santos off him. Eventually Santos’ pressure is likely to be successful, and he’ll start to dish out some damage of his own. I don’t think a knockout is guaranteed but it’s definitely possible.

I’ll take Santos to win via a late finish but I wouldn’t be too surprised by any outcome.

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On DraftKings, this feels like a decent fight to target.

I’m sketched out from the Dawson/Rebecki fight last week which I loved, and there are multiple reasons why that fight didn’t work, but it didn’t work in part because both guys had success. I could see both Choi and Santos having success, and if they simply are tough and survive, there’s no guarantee this fight is optimal.

We do have multiple paths to success though, with one being a finish. The fight is lined -180 to end inside the distance, which isn’t massive, but suggests a finish is very possible. I also think Santos’ wrestling equity gives him a boost and an additional way to score if he can’t get the finish.

Santos is priced at 8.4k and I actually think he could be one of the more popular plays on the entire slate. He’s +155 to win ITD and he’s averaging 109 DK points per win, while Choi is averaging 104 DK points to his opponent in losses.

There’s still a real boom/bust element to this, but it’s hard not to be mildly intrigued by Santos. He doesn’t have to be a standout but I think I will gravitate toward this fight pretty often and at 8.4k, I consider Santos a pretty strong tournament target with upside in a win.

Choi is priced at 7.8k and will get some love too, coming off a 116 DK score in his last fight.

He is +225 to win ITD which is not as strong as Santos’ line, but it’s still decent. I don’t think a finish is super likely for Choi but it is possible.

Choi is more boom/bust than Santos I think because I’m less sure about the knockout upside, as well as the wrestling. But he is capable of both, and if he wins, damage is likely to be part of the equation.

I am guessing Choi will lean toward being the leverage side, and although I prefer Santos straight up, I do think Choi can have early success here. He’s still averaging 109 DK points per win himself, and will rate out well for upside.

This fight should be super entertaining and I’ll have moderate exposure on the fantasy side.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)

Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz

Fight Odds: Wellmaker -274, Diaz +234

Odds to end ITD: -190

DraftKings Salaries: Wellmaker 9.2k, Diaz 7k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a potential banger here in the bantamweight division between Malcolm Wellmaker and Juan Diaz.

Wellmaker is an American fighter who is 9-1 professionally and is 31 years old. He booked his ticket to the UFC by knocking out Adam Bramhald in round 1 with a nasty counter right hook.

Wellmaker then made his UFC debut against Cameron Saaiman. Wellmaker knocked out Saaiman with a right hook in round 1. He followed that up with a knockout against Kris Moutinho.

Wellmaker then lost his last fight to the debuting Ethyn Ewing. It was still a competitive fight but Ewing was able to outlast Wellmaker and set a pace. Ewing outlanded Wellmaker 85-77 in significant strikes and landed 3 takedowns. It wasn’t the best look for Wellmaker. However, Ewing is really good and Wellmaker still won a round and competed. So I don’t think that loss ages terribly in hindsight. The loss revealed a couple of concerns that I had for Wellmaker’s game but I didn’t think he looked horrible either.

Wellmaker clearly has power and is best as a striker. He is a good athlete and has a lot of speed on the feet. He also is just accurate and generally finds his target with his power strikes. He has a lot of power in his hands. He is pretty slick on the feet and is long at 5’10”, and can manage range well and land a variety of strikes. I overall think he is solid on the feet and will continue to be a knockout threat in the UFC with his power, speed and athleticism.

I still do think Wellmaker is a bit green though, which the Ewing fight also showed, and he does lack volume at certain times. I also don’t think he is a real offensive wrestling threat. I also think he will probably be outgrappled in this division at some point again. He is super physical though and even though he conceded some takedowns against Ewing, he scrambled up well even through fatigue.

Overall, I think we know what Wellmaker is now. He is a power striker who is very dangerous early and is physical enough to stop some takedowns, especially early. However, if fights extend and a pace is set, he can get a bit tired and his power definitely decreases and he can get a bit sloppy. I still take him very seriously as an early power threat though.

Wellmaker will be taking on UFC debutant Juan Diaz. Diaz is a Peruvian fighter who is 15-1-1 professionally. He is 27 years old.

Diaz booked his ticket to the UFC with a viral spinning back elbow knockout at the end of round 2. It was a brutal knockout. The fight was overall pretty fun and back and forth to that point too.

Before the Contender Series, Diaz generally fought in a lot of lower tier regional promotions in Mexico and South America. So he doesn’t have a ton of experience against great competition.

However, I do think Diaz looks pretty decent and is ready for the lower tiers of the UFC bantamweight division. I consider him a freestyle fighter who generally strikes a little more than he grapples.

On the feet, Diaz generally likes to throw hands. He will get in boxing range and he has some decently sharp hands and has a good pull 2 counter that I have seen him land. He will also mix in some kicks to the body and legs but they are generally to set up his hands. He also seems pretty tough. However, he does look a bit hittable to me and I think his durability will be tested much more in the UFC and especially against Wellmaker.

Diaz will also wrestle a little bit. I don’t consider his takedowns that strong though. He is competent at landing takedowns and taking the back. He has a couple of submission wins in his career. However, I just don’t think he is a strong enough wrestler to make it a consistent win condition at this level.

Diaz does have good cardio though and is relatively well-rounded though. He will try to throw some offense and push a pace to a degree, so I could see him having some mild success in the UFC.

As far as this matchup goes, I still do lean Wellmaker. Ewing is a much better fighter than Diaz in my opinion, and even Ewing had issues with Wellmaker.

Early on, I think Wellmaker has a legitimate chance to knock Diaz out or hurt him. Diaz doesn’t seem to have durability issues but Diaz has never been hit by someone as good or powerful as Wellmaker so I am not dismissing a Wellmaker early KO at all.

I also just think Wellmaker will be dangerous and landing the harder shots early and defending takedowns. So I favor Wellmaker in round one pretty clearly so getting off to an early lead will be big for him.

My guess is Diaz is going to have to come from behind to win here. It is possible. Wellmaker could get tired again and if this fight gets into round 3, I definitely could see Diaz having success.

The issue is I rate Ewing highly, and he still had to fight very well and overcome some adversity to beat Wellmaker. I don’t think Diaz is nearly the fighter of Ewing, and I am much more suspicious of the defense of Diaz than Ewing. I don’t think Wellmaker will struggle landing here at all. I think Wellmaker either gets this done early or wins a clean round one, and fights through fatigue well enough in rounds 2 and 3 to hold onto a decision win.

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On DraftKings, I have mixed feelings about this one.

From a macro perspective, Wellmaker is just an expensive, boom or bust target with a decent chance of hitting. We know he is early knockout capable, and can score 100 points in a win.

I don’t think Wellmaker throws enough volume, or wrestles enough to give him much of a shot past the first round. Even with a round two knockout, I wouldn’t be sold Wellmaker would score 100 points or much more.

The good news is Wellmaker is -105 to win ITD here, which isn’t terrible. It’s also not a great finishing prop compared to most high priced fighters on a typical slate, and an extended fight here is still pretty likely.

From a matchup standpoint, I’m not sold that Wellmaker makes this look easy. I had worries about him against Ewing and although I agree Ewing is a better fighter than Diaz, I also think Diaz is a fine boxer who can compete on volume with Wellmaker just fine. Plus, Diaz has never been knocked out, and he’s won many extended fights that includes a five round decision.

From a profiling sense, I think Wellmaker has a shot to win by early KO but I’m not at all confident we will get that outcome. He still may win an extended fight but I could see Diaz being competitive here in the same manner Ewing was.

Wellmaker is priced at 9.2k and coming off the loss, I’m unsure how the public will treat him. His other two wins scored 110 and 102.

Wellmaker has one of the better ITD lines on this slate, but it’s a slate where almost no fights are projected to end early. In that sense, sure, Wellmaker rates out well and is a fine tournament target. I’d honestly lean against targeting him heavily if he projects to be popular.

I don’t want to commit to a fade of Wellmaker just because he lost his last fight, but he’s very boom or bust in my mind, with a questionable top end ceiling. If I have the salary available, he’s a solid mix-in for sure but I don’t consider him an outright priority as I’m really not sold this fight ends quickly.

Diaz is priced at 7k and I’m not dying to target him.

It’s one thing to bet against Wellmaker winning quickly, and it’s another thing to get on Diaz winning outright. Let alone betting on him to win outright and produce a big score.

Ewing just beat Wellmaker and scored 84 DK points which I don’t think is enough to be optimal on this kind of slate, even at 7k.

Diaz also isn’t really a finisher. His viral KO was cool, but seven of his last eight fights (essentially) had gone the distance. All of his other KOs came early in his career.

Diaz is +400 to win ITD which is OK. Perhaps he’s not an awful play and he has some viability as a salary saver, leverage target, and general punt. He has decent hands and there’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges.

My fear is that the most likely outcome for him is a competitive, boxing based decision where he fails to score 90-100, and therefore, I’m just not dying to invest much in him this weekend.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wellmaker by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards

Fight Odds: Bukauskas -300, Edward +250

Odds to end ITD: NA

DraftKings Salaries: Bukauskas 8.3k, Edwards 6.9k

Weight Class: 205

We have a short notice matchup as Modestas Bukauskas will take on newcomer Christian Edwards.

Bukauskas was originally scheduled to compete here against Rodolfo Bellato, but that fight was scrapped on Tuesday and the UFC called in Edwards as a short notice replacement.

Bukauskas who is coming off a KO loss to Nikita Krylov in January. I’m not a big fan of Bukauskas and wasn’t particularly surprised by that result. He’s a fine boxer but he’s so low volume and that’s what I’ve always hated about him.

Bukauskas lands 3.24 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.05 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate. He’s now in his second stint in the UFC and looks generally like the same fighter to me.

To be fair, Bukauskas has won more recently, and was on a four-fight win streak prior to losing to Krylov, but he was facing terrible competition including Cerquiera, Paul Craig, and Marcin Prachnio.

Bukauskas picked up a couple of early KOs against Cerqueira and Craig, but he’s not super dependable to win by early KO because of his lack of volume. And when fights extend, it’s a real worry for him in rounds because he’s just not throwing enough.

We’ve seen Bukauskas (essentially) go the distance and land 40, 44, 38, 56 and 44 significant strikes. It’s just not enough.

Defensively, Bukauskas is OK, but he’s been KOd three times now, excluding the severe injury KO against Rountree back in 2021.

Bukauskas doesn’t wrestle much either, and lands 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. He defends at 79 percent.

I think Bukaukas has a super limited ceiling based on his lack of offense, and he’s not particularly more likely to win by KO than he is to lose by KO. He’s fine technically but in extended fights, his lack of volume and a ground game is a major concern.

He’ll be taking on Christian Edwards who is 8-4 as a pro and trains out of Jackson Wink where he’s been in training rooms with Jon Jones and others for years.

Unfortunately, Edwards is really bad and I see almost no hope for him as a prospect.

He started his career in Bellator where he went 5-0 against weak competition, and then was knocked out by Ben Parrish in round one in 2021. He lost his next fight to Grant Neal, and then moved up to HW where he was submitted by Rakim Cleveland.

Then he fought a couple of times on the regionals and won, which included a highlight reel victory over… checks notes.. Jake Collier via first round shoulder injury.

He actually fought Luke Fernandez in 2025 and lost by five round decision, and that was an awful matchup. Fernandez just controlled him for the majority of the 25 minutes, and the two barely landed any strikes.

In his most recent win, Edwards landed a couple of takedowns, and won by ground-and-pound.

I would be shocked if Edwards amounts to anything at the UFC level. I don’t think he’s good in any singular area and he seems very defensively questionable as well.

Sure, he can kickbox a little bit, and he has a couple of knockouts on his record. He doesn’t throw with much volume and I think his defense is weak. His wrestling is adequate at best but I don’t see him having real success wrestling at the UFC level.

He defended some takedowns from Fernandez OK and that might be his best attribute, being a wrestling neutralizer, though he still got taken down and controlled.

I think Edwards can win via a random knockout, or by having some grappling success against very low level competition.

As far as this matchup, Bukauskas is now approaching -300 to win and is one of the biggest favorites on the slate, which is pretty gross. I still don’t really trust Bukauskas because he doesn’t throw much offense.

Due to that profile alone, I’m not counting Edwards out. If you land 40 strikes in 15 minutes, losing is always on the table.

However, I don’t really see Edwards throwing a whole lot of volume himself, and I think Bukauskas is the better technical and power striker of the two. I think Bukauskas has some early knockout equity.

Bukauskas is just a better athlete. Maybe Edwards can take him down but I kind of doubt it, and I don’t think he’d do much with it. Bukauskas can probably land a takedown if he wants as well.

Obviously this fight could get ugly and weird if it extends, which is very possible. Edwards is live for a random moment if Bukauskas’ chin doesn’t hold up. I’ll lean toward Bukauskas getting the job done, either by early KO or by decision, as I don’t really trust Edwards to push any kind of pace on such short notice.

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On DraftKings, Bukauskas is now the best value play on the slate at 8.3k.

He will be one of, if not the biggest favorites on the entire slate, so he’s going to be viewed as an obvious target. ITD lines aren’t out yet but I expect Bukauskas to have a decent one, though the fight won’t be projected to end quickly.

Regardless, you can throw value out the window with this one because it barely matters. Bukauskas is extremely boom or bust and this kind of matchup won’t change that dynamic.

If you get a first round knockout from Bukauskas, great, he can contend for the optimal. If any other outcome occurs, he’s probably not scoring 100 points and he may not even score 80 points.

Bukauskas has won by decision and scored 51, 56 and 51 DK points. I do think his chances of winning by early knockout are viable enough to make him a worthy fantasy target, but I’d be completely scared off by the chalk if he ends up projecting as a popular play.

To be quite honest, I’d probably rather play a fade on Bukauskas at chalk ownership on this kind of slate, rather than playing him heavily at chalk. This is one of the worst slates of the year, and I just don’t see the merit of relying on a guy who throws 10 strikes per round to win by quick KO.

The easier answer is to fall somewhere in between, which is my official recommendation. I’d label him a solid secondary target with early knockout upside. At 8.3k, yes, he’s worthy of targeting and he’s an easy play in mid-range builds. He’ll have cash viability too given his value.

The higher owned he projects to be, the more scared I will be from playing him, and the more I would want to pivot away.

Edwards is priced at 6.9k, which is the cheapest price on this slate.

Edwards will only carry mild, if not very limited finishing equity, and the only reason I’d want to play him is in case of a meme finish.

I really don’t see Edwards scoring many points even if he happened to win a decision. The only upside here is that Bukauskas has been KOd a few times, including his last fight, so maybe Edwards will just throw caution out the window on a short notice fight like this.

If you want to mix Edwards in as a punt, I don’t completely hate it with a large portfolio. However, I don’t think he wins very often, and I’m confident he’s not a great talent. It doesn’t seem like a great bet so I’ll have very limited exposure myself.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bukauskas by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)

Timmy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj

Fight Odds: Sopaj -150, Cuamba +130

Odds to end ITD: +160

DraftKings Salaries: Sopaj 8.4k, Cuamba 7.8k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with a fun bantamweight clash as Timmy Cuamba takes on Benardo Sopaj. Let’s dive in.

Timmy Cuamba unfortunately fell short on his UFC aspirations in 2023, as he won his Contender Series matchup against Mateo Vogel by decision but didn’t impress Dana White enough to get a contract. He ended up returning to the regional scene, getting a solid win and then getting the call-up to the big leagues, finally realizing that dream. 

He made his debut on short notice up a weight class against Bolaji Oki in February of 2024, in which he lost a close split decision and Oki was just too big for him there. Since then, he is 2-1 and is riding a two fight win streak into this matchup. 

He is a high paced fighter with the ability to fight in all areas. He has solid wrestling, landing 1.31 TDs per 15 minutes and was able to outwrestle Chang Ho Lee in his last one, controlling Lee for 4:20 of round 3. His grappling isn’t very potent, as he has never earned a submission victory, but he does have decent control and utilizes those takedowns to win optics and minutes inside the Octagon. 

He also has some solid striking on the feet. He doesn’t have the most power or speed, but he has solid technique and carries a heavy pace, despite his striking numbers saying otherwise. He is only averaging 2.77 strikes landed per minute but has been involved in some very grappling heavy bouts. 

I would categorize Cuamba largely as a minute winner. Despite his flying knee KO over Roberto Romero last April, he isn’t the most potent finisher. He has a 50% finish rate, with all of them coming by way of KO. He has no submission to his name and has actually been submitted in his only regional scene loss. He is 5-2 to the decision with his only decision losses coming inside the UFC to Oki and Lucas Almeida. 

His cardio seems to hold up pretty well and he has been durable, having never been KO’d, but we did see him dropped by Lucas Almeida in that spot. In the UFC, he is defending takedowns at 72%. He was taken down and gave up 4 minutes of control to Vogel, and was taken down three times and gave up 6.5 minutes of control to Chang Ho Lee in his last one. 

Although Cuamba is competent in all areas and is able to win minutes in the wrestling and striking, he does fight on close margins. He doesn’t separate himself too much with power on the feet or with dangerous grappling on the mat. Instead, he is content to pump out a jab, mix in takedowns and look to win minutes. 

Overall, Cuamba is going to rate out as a fine pace fighter with a solid, well-rounded skill set and ability to win minutes. His durability and cardio help him take over late but he doesn’t separate himself with big moments or much of a finishing threat and I would like for him to improve his optics before trusting him at too high of a clip.

Benardo Sopaj makes his return this weekend and is looking to build off his first UFC win he got last January against Ricky Turcios. 

Sopaj has been unfortunately inactive since his debut in March of 2024, as injuries have taken him away from the sport. However, at 25 years old, Sopaj is still looking to make improvements and make a run in the division. He made his debut on short notice against Vinicius Oliveira in 2024, a very large task with or without the short notice nature. He was actually looking really good early, winning the scrambles and beating Oliveira in the first round, before ultimately slowing down and being put on the opposite end of one of the most brutal flying knees we’ve ever seen. 

He was able to bounce back against Turcios where he was able to hurt Turcios, land a couple takedowns and outstrike him en route to a 30-27 decision. Sopaj then took another 16 months off to improve his skills, and now returns against Cuamba. 

He is training over at all-stars Sweden with Mark Vologdin and Felipe Lima and although he had some time off due to an elbow injury, has been posting training clips at different gyms. He is now 12-3, with an 83% finish rate split between 7 KOs and 3 submissions, with 7 of those finishes coming in the first round. 

He is a really crafty striker with solid power. He’s averaging 4.24 strikes landed per minute at a 56% accuracy and keeps his hands in tight when boxing, looking to rip the body as well as hunt the head. 

He is also a really solid grappler and has landed multiple takedowns in both his bouts, averaging 2.53 TDs per 15 minutes. He landed 3 takedowns against Oliveira and controlled him for over 4 minutes, winning the start of that fight. He was also able to land 2 takedowns and control Turcios for two and half minutes, despite the success he was having on the feet. 

The cardio and durability of Sopaj I would still consider pretty good. Yes, we saw him tire and knocked out badly against Oliveira but that was up a weight class on short notice. He has not been finished otherwise and is able to take damage well. His cardio isn’t the best, but he is able to push a solid pace and carries power late. 

Overall, Sopaj is a very quick, powerful and well-rounded fighter who is still young and making improvements. He has good entries on his takedowns, solid top grappling and also is able to rip powerful punches to all levels on the feet. While I do think he can slow down and be hit the later the fight goes on, he does project as a good, well-rounded fighter who is capable to fight in all areas and also able to maintain a solid pace as the fight goes on.

I like this fight. I have been higher on both these fighters than the field. I picked both these guys on short notice against powerful guys up a weight class and although they both lost, they were both able to make solid accounts for themselves. On full camps, I would probably take that bet again. However, one of them has to lose and they are very different fighters in my eyes.

Although both are well-rounded and capable in all areas, they offer different threats. Sopaj is a powerful, quick counter boxer with the ability to work all levels and put your lights out. Additionally, I would rate him as the better grappler of the two and he is able to flow better from top position. Cuamba is more of a grinder. He pushes a solid pace, I think has the better cardio here, and although he doesn’t have the same pop on his punches that Sopaj does, he can win minutes with his pressure and output. 

I do think Sopaj is more dangerous. Whether that be in the grappling or in the boxing, we have seen Cuamba hurt and I do think the most likely outcome is he’s able to land larger moments. I do consider this a moment vs minute type of fight and I don’t know how much Cuamba can separate himself on volume alone. 

I favor Sopaj to win the minutes while fresh and hold more finish equity so although Cuamba can win round three, I have to pick Sopaj to win the early exchanges and ultimately, the fight.

—

On DraftKings, this is another fight projected to go the distance which poses a concern for the fantasy outlook.

I don’t think either fighter throws enough volume to matter in a decision, though both can wrestle a bit. A finish is possible, but not extremely likely.

Sopaj is priced at 8.4k and probably needs a finish. It’s tough to be sold on him down the stretch in fights, so in a decision, I would be concerned. It’s worth noting he did just score 90 points in a decision but that also came with a knockdown.

That’s kind of what we’re hoping for here. Sopaj gets a big moment, lands a knockdown, gets a finish, or has an early grappling threat. He’s only +270 to win ITD though so it’s not anything close to a guarantee.

Cuamba is also bigger than Sopaj, for what it’s worth. While Sopaj might be better and more dangerous, I’m just not sold he dominates. I consider him a fine secondary option with some upside but it’s really tough to be comfortable.

Cuamba is priced at 7.8k and is a mediocre secondary target.

I don’t want to say he has no shot, because his grappling looked OK in his last win, and we’ve seen Sopaj slow down badly before. Cuamba probably has the better cardio so there’s a chance he can score a lot late or get a finish.

However, he just scored 68 in a win which is gross, and he’s only +425 to win ITD, so he won’t project well.

It’s just a situation where you kind of have to play into the narrative of the cardio, if you want to take shots at all. I’m guessing he’ll be relatively low owned and isn’t a real priority. It’s not impossible he wins, or has some late success that snowballs him into a 90 point score.

Super tough fight to be confident in on either side and I’ll lean against attacking it heavily, but if these guys mix into my mid-range builds, so be it.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sopaj by Decision (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams

Fight Odds: Williams -121, Veretennikov +101

Odds to end ITD: -160

DraftKings Salaries: Williams 8.3k, Veretennikov 7.9k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a random matchup here in the welterweight division between Nikolay Veretennikov and Khaos Williams.

Veretennikov is from Kazakhstan and is 14-7 professionally. Veretennikov actually has a couple of close decision losses against Michael Morales and Danny Barlow. He was outstruck by Morales 53-52 in significant strikes. He actually outlanded Barlow 50-47 in significant strikes. Both of those losses have actually aged well to be honest.

Veretennikov then got dominated on the mat against Austin Vanderford in his last loss. He bounced back with a win against Francisco Prado in an ugly fight. He was then outwrestled by Punahele Soriano and most recently joined the knocking out Niko Price in round one club along with 47 other members. So it has been a schizophrenic UFC tenure for Veretennikov.

I mostly consider Veretennikov a striker. I think he is okay on the feet and the fact that he struck competitively with Morales and Barlow shows that he is competent there. 

Standing out of the orthodox stance, Veretennikov has some pretty decent hands and pretty good hooks in the pocket. He can also mix in some body kicks. He is defensively sound. He does have some power and he has 9 wins by knockout.

Veretennikov does have some volume issues at times though. He only landed 52, 50, 56 and 9  significant strikes in his four UFC decisions. However, those came against Barlow and Morales who are good opponents and they are difficult to tally a strike count against. He was also controlled on the mat a lot against Prado and Soriano. 

I think Veretennikov is capable of more volume than those fights showed if he gets a pure striking fight against a manageable opponent. I do wish he fought at a higher pace though. He seems durable as well and he has only lost by standing knockout once.

Veretennikov doesn’t wrestle all that much but I have seen him float on top and land ground-and-pound. Good wrestlers can definitely beat him on the mat though and we saw that against Vanderford. I also thought in his matchup against Prado, his defensive grappling looked pretty awful. He defended 7 of 10 takedowns from Prado, but he was controlled for 7 minutes and put in awful positions on the mat. I don’t think Prado is good either so it was kind of a bad look to me. Soriano also outwrestled him.

Veretennikov is just a competent striker who can fight at the UFC level in pure striking fights. He will struggle against competent grapplers.

Veretennikov will be taking on Khaos Williams. Williams is mostly a striker. He has not even attempted a takedown in the UFC. He obviously has power and is capable of knocking people out. So that will always be a path to victory for him. He has major knockout power.

Williams is just okay. He is landing 4.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 5.39 in return. He defends strikes at 40 percent. I don’t think Williams is super technical as a striker, but he is athletic and manages range well with his quickness. He is also very good at unloading counter hooks if you come into the pocket. I consider him dangerous and capable of knocking opponents out dead.

I had always been skeptical of Williams’ defensive grappling and TDD. He has fought SO many strikers in his career and he had only surrendered takedowns to Michel Pereira. So going into his matchup against Gabriel Bonfim, I thought Bonfim might expose Williams on the mat. That ended up happening. Bonfim landed 4 takedowns and submitted Williams in round 2. 

I do think Williams has okay first layer takedown defense and can use explosiveness to power out of some positions. He defends takedowns at a decent 60 percent. However, he clearly has some issues and I will always be skeptical of his defensive grappling.

Williams got badly outpaced and got the crap kicked out of him in his last matchup against Andreas Gustafsson. It was a severe beating.

As far as this matchup goes though, these guys will likely strike at a lower pace and I don’t even know if either guy will attempt a takedown. So we probably just get a striking fight that plays out competitively.

This is either man’s fight. Both have volume issues at times. Both will throw a little more often at times. I don’t give either guy a major work rate edge. Williams lands more raw output but I think it is misleading because Veretennikov has been outwrestled for like half of his UFC rounds. I think both guys can match each other on volume.

I think Veretennikov is probably a more technical striker while Williams has more explosive power. Like I don’t know man. If neither guy hurts the other, we probably get a super tight decision. If someone hurts the other, which either could, obviously that guy probably wins. So I think a coin flip makes perfect sense here and I want absolutely nothing to do with it.

—

On DraftKings, it’s another fight that’s hard to call but I guess it’s one I’m willing to play.

The fight is -160 to end inside the distance, and both fighters are knockout capable, which is better than nothing.

Williams is priced at 8.3k and I think he has more volume upside. He’s also the more durable fighter on paper of the two as he’s never been knocked out. He has the better ITD line of the two at +170.

On paper, Williams is fine. He has some knockout equity and Veretennikov can be inconsistent. I honestly don’t love it still, and I think Veretennikov is the more technical striker. I only consider this a secondary play and another boom/bust option, but Williams has a bit of upside on paper so he’s a fine mix in.

Veretennikov is priced at 7.9k and my gut is to prefer him, although he’s very boom or bust as well.

Plus, Williams has never been knocked out, so it’s difficult to be confident Veretennikov will come through. I don’t want to get carried away just because he won by KO in his last fight, although I think the public will be excited by that fact and he could be more popular because of it.

At distance, Veretennikov still has a positive striking differential and he absorbs way fewer strikes than Williams does. So I’m a bit hopeful for him and I do think a knockout is possible. He is only +215 to win ITD.

There’s no reason to be confident here. If Veretennikov wins a striking based decision which is also possible, he could score 80 points or less. Banking on a KO feels risky.

I do feel willing to play him as a secondary play regardless, just because there’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges and this matchup is likely to end ITD on paper. There’s a fair amount of upside dogs who are cheaper if you’d rather save more salary.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Veretennikov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan

Fight Odds: Erslan -180, Tokkos +155

Odds to end ITD: -200

DraftKings Salaries: Erslan 8.8k, Tokkos 7.4k

Weight Class: 205

The UFC is simply throwing all the fighters they don’t know what to do with on this card, so welcome Tuco Tokkos and Ivan Erslan to the Octagon once again.

Erslan is now 0-3 in the UFC after a quick submission loss to Jimmy Crute, though he’ll get a step down in competition this weekend against Tokkos. His other losses have come to decent competition as well in Navajo Stirling and Ion Cutelaba.

Erslan lost his UFC debut to Ion Cutelaba in 2024, in a split decision. Cutelaba attempted a dozen takedowns and landed three of them, but couldn’t maintain any control. Erslan actually landed one of his own in the third round and got on top of Cutelaba for a few minutes. Cutelaba also outlanded Erslan 38 to 33 at distance.

Against Stirling, he was kind of beaten up at range for the majority of 15 minutes, knocked down, taken down, and didn’t offer much besides a few singular power strikes. He defended Crute OK for the first minute but then gave up his back and lost via RNC.

Prior to coming to the UFC, Erslan competed in the KSW promotion which is a decent feeder in Eastern Europe.

He’s primarily a power striker and the vast majority of his success has come from knockouts. He’s a capable boxer with power, but he’s not necessarily a high-volume fighter so there are definite round-winning concerns with Erslan.

I do like that he was able to outlast Cutelaba, though Cutelaba is notorious for gassing out. Erslan isn’t necessarily the type who will blow his load in the first couple of minutes and death gas if he doesn’t land the KO. He can remain dangerous for all three rounds.

But it surely feels like unless he’s landing some big power shots, he’s just not going to have any sustained success. So his upside will be largely tied to knockouts, and most likely, early knockouts.

As a grappler, Erslan has minimal upside though it appears he can get on top of weak or tired opponents. He only has one submission on his record and will look more to land ground strikes if he is able to get on top. I just wouldn’t expect him to wrestle at a high rate or have much success.

Again, it was good to see him fight defensively against Cutelaba, and the result could have been far worse. His defensive grappling on the regional scene was mediocre and I do still think he can be outwrestled, but it appears he’ll at least defend functionally from time to time, and try to scramble up when necessary. In total, he’s defending takedowns now at 61 percent.

Erslan has been knocked out once and submitted twice, and I’ve seen him hurt a couple of times. He can clearly be beaten in a number of ways. While I do think he carries knockout power and a chance to win via that method, I don’t think we’ll see him win more often than he loses at the UFC level.

Tokkos is coming off his first UFC win over Justin Tafa, which now brings his promotional record to 1-3.

To be very fair to Tokkos, his loss on Road to UFC came to Zhang Mingyang, who’s been a legit killer, and Tokkos was heavily favored over Zhang at that time. His official UFC debut came against Oumar Sy who is also a solid prospect, though Sy looked poor recently, and Sy submitted him quickly.

He also lost to Stirling which was the most concerning of the three for me because the optics on the feet for Tokkos were legitimately bad. He was outstruck 70-28 at distance, and was on the retreat the entire time.

While he was never really rocked or nearly finished, it did look like a TKO was on the horizon for Stirling. Tokkos was wilting against the cage in multiple rounds, and based on that performance, I would not be surprised to see him knocked out again soon.

On the positive side, Tokkos did survive and did land a few takedowns and even took Stirling’s back. And he’s coming off the win over Tafa in which he landed five takedowns and pulled off the second round arm-triangle finish.

Tokkos is a black belt in jiu-jitsu so he should have advantages if he can consistently earn top position. I wouldn’t say he’s a great wrestler, but he’s willing, and that’s half the battle. He is attempting nearly 10 takedowns per 15 minutes which is a good sign.

Tokkos just isn’t a great athlete, so he’s rarely going to be able to force his game on people. He doesn’t have A+ power, and his durability is pretty questionable. I also have questions about his defensive grappling too. And even in a striking fight where Tokkos has shown some capabilities in the past, I have no reason to believe he can compete with UFC level competition at this stage.

As far as this matchup, it’s relatively binary for me in that Erslan should be the more dangerous striker, rooted in power, while Tokkos is the higher quality grappler.

The problem is the fight could still play out in a number of ways and I’m not sold it will be pure domination on either side. Still, I think if the fight stays standing, Erslan is likely to land some hard shots, and picking him to win by TKO is pretty reasonable. If Tokkos can get on top of him with any consistency, he can win rounds or win by submission.

I honestly think Tokkos is pretty live in this one because Erslan is giving up takedowns to all of his opponents, and he doesn’t throw in volume. Tokkos has at least shown he can survive some exchanges, and if the fight extends, it’s hard to back Erslan.

I may just pick the upset here for the hell of it. I do kind of suspect that Erslan is physical enough to defend some early shots from Tokkos, and therefore, he might be able to get his hands going and hurt Tokkos. An early KO seems pretty likely. I do respect the urgency from Tokkos to get the fight down to the mat and coming off a win, I hope he’ll continue that game plan.

If he can survive a few striking exchanges, Tokkos is the better wrestler and grappler on paper and I am kind of rooting for him to pick up another ground based win.

—

On DraftKings, this is a decent fight to target given the binary nature and the likelihood that it ends inside the distance.

I do view it as extremely boom or bust though, so despite the -200 line for it to end inside the distance, I don’t view this as any sort of lock to be optimal.

Erslan is priced up to 8.8k and I think he’s a fine tournament target, especially because he shouldn’t be super highly owned coming off three losses. Yet his path to victory is largely rooted in early striking success, and so winning by TKO and scoring 100 points is very much in play.

The issue is that if Erslan doesn’t win in round one, he may not be producing any points. A second or third round TKO may score 80-100 points but I’d be pretty concerned that he’d fail to be optimal at 8.8k.

So I just view Erslan as having a super thin window to hit, and I tend not to play these types heavily. With a -110 ITD line, I do think Erslan is a quality secondary tournament target who is worth some exposure, but he’s also only +250 to win in round one and therefore, I’m somewhat scared about the fight extending and him failing to reach the optimal.

Tokkos at 7.4k is the easier play as I think a win for him will be tied to grappling success.

He also doesn’t need to win ITD to score well, which I like, though I’d prefer it. I am guessing he might see some ownership coming off the 117 point win, while Erslan just got subbed.

Tokkos is +375 to win ITD which is fine for this price tag. I don’t want to get carried away here. Tokkos is pretty bad and he might just lose quickly. I don’t think he is a must target or any sort of priority.

I do still like targeting binary fights, especially on the grappling side, and at 7.4k, having secondary exposure to Tokkos makes sense.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tokkos by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev

Fight Odds: Gantt -225, Minev +190

Odds to end ITD: 

DraftKings Salaries: Gantt 9.1k, Minev 7.1k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a matchup between two newcomers as Thomas Gantt takes on Artur Minev this weekend. Minev is stepping in on short notice to replace the veteran Trey Ogden, who pulled out due to injury.

Gantt is an American fighter who is 11-0 professionally. He is 33 years old. He took down his opponent on the Contender Series and submitted him in round one to earn his UFC contract.

So Gantt trains alongside Daniel Cormier. He comes from a wrestling background and is a former NCAA Division 1 all-American at North Carolina State University. I want to point out that he is more so a fringe all-American. He took 8th place (only top 8 all-American) in a single year of college wrestling. So although he has a very solid wrestling background, he is definitely not a blue chip wrestling prospect either. However, his background in wrestling is still solid.

Anyway, it is interesting and I have never seen a regional record like Gantt’s. It looks like he has a ton of MMA experience with 11 wins but he only became pro in April of 2024. All 10 of his professional fights before the Contender Series took place within 12 months! So he essentially was fighting every month. I will say that his competition in that 12 month window was absolutely terrible and Gantt has not fought anyone good, so he is extremely untested.

Anyway, although there are a lot of questions with Gantt, I do think he has some potential. He basically likes to crash the clinch and get body locks and land elbows from the clinch, or get takedowns and work his top game. It is hard because his opponents have been so bad so I feel like there isn’t a ton of tape on him in positions and situations that he will be put in in the UFC. I thought his Contender Series win was solid and against a decent opponent. However, I just know nothing about his distance striking, his defensive wrestling, his cardio, his durability, etc.

For now, I do think Gantt looks like a guy who will just thrive in close quarters where he can land inside clinch strikes, takedowns, and work his top game. He looks like a good athlete and is physically strong. I do think he will work weaker wrestlers. However, my guess is he probably has some weaknesses in his game and will get exposed at some point. I very much think we are in a data collecting phase with Gantt.

As for Artur Minev, the Ukranian enters the UFC with a 7-0 record and a reputation as a dangerous “headhunter” which is also his nickname. He is a power-heavy striker who operates at a low-to-mid tempo, looking for the one big shot to end the night. He mostly unleashes hooks in the pocket and he has power in his hands. 

This style has served him well on the regional circuit where he has finished almost every opponent he’s faced, but it’s a style that often hits a wall in the UFC. Relying purely on power and a slower pace usually isn’t enough when you’re facing guys who can move, jab, and change levels.

Minev had one fight go to decision which was a five rounder against Maranhão who is very mid. It was a back and forth striking fight for a while. Minev was actually hurt badly once in that fight but landed his own big shots too. 

Minev showed a decent wrestling and top game in that fight. He shot a power double multiple times and held top position well. His extended striking was still lacking volume though. However, his cardio held up. I think he can land power strikes at this level, land takedowns here and there. However, his lack of volume concerns me.

The biggest question mark with Minev is his defensive ground game. I haven’t seen enough of his defensive grappling against high-caliber opponents to know if he can even stay on his feet once a wrestler gets a hold of him. If he can’t stop the initial shot or work back up quickly, his power becomes a non-factor. 

As far as this matchup goes, Minev is clearly the more dangerous striker and possesses legitimate KO power that Gantt has to respect. However, Minev’s lack of proven defensive wrestling makes him a huge wildcard in this matchup.

Miniev has a real chance to end this early if Gantt gets careless closing the distance. However, Gantt is the better wrestler and can likely use his physicality to get Minev against the cage. Miniev gets stuck against the cage here and there.

Because Mini=ev’s defensive grappling is such a mystery, this is a very hard fight to call. I am going to pick Gantt because I like his wrestling base and athleticism more, and I think he will force the fight on his terms. However, neither guy has the experience for me to be confident. I think it is either going to be Minev winning via power punches on the feet or Gantt winning with grappling. I will go with the latter.

—

On DraftKings, Gantt is priced up at 9.1k and I expect him to be a popular play as a new, shiny toy.

Honestly, I do like him because unlike most others on this slate, he can actually wrestle which gives him a much stronger floor in a win than most. Plus, he has finishing equity, although ITD odds aren’t out yet, Gantt has won 10 of his 11 fights ITD.

I also agree that we shouldn’t be overly excited about Gantt because of his lack of experience, and he’s fought some really poor fighters. So the odds could just be wrong here. But it’s fair to pick Gantt given his wrestling background.

At 9.1k, I’ll probably end up with moderate exposure to Gantt and I assume the field will as well. Assuming nobody in the top tier wins by quick KO, Gantt is the most likely to outscore the group and he’d still have a shot at 100 points. He could also win ITD and arguably has a better ceiling than most.

So ultimately, I don’t really consider Gantt safe, but I do think he rates out among the better fantasy targets in the top end this week and I’m happy to play him.

Minev is priced at 7.1k and is arguably worth some exposure.

He looks like a pretty decent boxer to me with power, and you just never know. Gantt probably hasn’t faced anyone like this, and Minev is training with Amosov who’s a legit wrestler too. Maybe he can defend takedowns or scramble up at which point, he’s probably the better boxer.

I don’t think Minev easily wins a decision here but he does have some KO equity. He won’t have a super strong ITD line and won’t project well, so he’s more of a boom/bust kind of target.

He might get some love as a newcomer, but I doubt he’ll be too popular, and he’ll carry lots of leverage against Gantt. This seems like a decent fight to be in on, and I don’t mind taking a few chances on Minev here just with the lack of data surrounding this fight.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gantt by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Fight Odds: Cavalcanti -170, Vieira +145

Odds to end ITD: +275

DraftKings Salaries: Cavalcanti 8.5k, Vieira 7.7k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a random fight here between Jacqueline Cavalcanti and Ketlen Vieira.

We actually bet Cavalcanti back to back as she won split decisions against Josiane Nunes and Nora Cornolle. She then defeated Julia Avila and Marya Bueno Silva by decision in her most recent fights.

Cavalcanti is now 5-0 in the UFC and is generally a range distance striker. She employs a lot of movement on the outside and looks to land her kicks and punches on the outside, and skate away from her opponents. 

She lands 5.65 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.17 in return. She has pretty good range control and defense and is defending strikes at a solid 68 percent.

I overall think Cavalcanti is a fine striker who can win rounds on the feet at this level. I do think she lacks a bit in power and aggression though. She was definitely the better and more skillful striker in her matchups against Nunes and outlanded her comfortably. However, Nunes made the fight more competitive than it should have been by simply being the aggressor and landing some occasional power shots. So optically, Cavalcanti may struggle a bit even if she is outlanding her opponents. I just feel like she fights her opponents pretty closely without the widest margins.

Cavalcanti doesn’t look to grapple much and doesn’t look interested in wrestling offensively. She actually hasn’t attempted a takedown in her 5 UFC fights which spans 15 rounds. Her defensive grappling looks competent, but I haven’t seen her tested there all that much either. She defended 8 of 9 takedowns against Cornolle which was good. However, she was taken down by Avila at the end of round 2 and took awhile to get back to her feet. I think her defensive grappling clearly looks competent but it is still WMMA and I do think she is someone who can get taken down and held down here and there.

Cavalcanti will be taking on UFC veteran Ketlen Vieira. Vieira is a weird fighter in my mind. I don’t particularly think she is good, and I don’t personally enjoy watching her fight. I would honestly rather watch grass grow. However, WMMA and 135 in particular is just so bad that Vieira being somewhat well-rounded and physical makes her a borderline top contender by default lol.

Vieira comes from a Judo background and she is a competent grappler. She lands 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts around 3 takedowns per fight. She is capable of landing takedowns and riding top position and is somewhat heavy in top position. As with most judo players, Vieira is most threatening with her takedowns in the clinch when she can find those split seconds to explode when her opponents aren’t quite ready or aware that they are out of position.

Vieira generally defends takedowns very well and has a 90 percent TDD rate which is stellar. She just defended 6 of 8 takedowns against Kayla Harrison which was solid. So she is tough to take down.

I have seen Vieira on her back though and her get-ups are not strong. If she gets taken down, she can lose an entire round. She can also be clinched up against the cage.

Vieira has actually struck a lot lately, and I do think her boxing has improved. She has good timing on the inside with her boxing combinations, and she definitely showed some skills in her win against Holly Holm.

I still just don’t fully trust Vieira on the feet though. She is still only landing 2.76 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.75 in return. She only defends strikes at 50 percent. Those are just hard metrics to be confident in. I do think Vieira hits above-average from a strike per strike basis though so the effectiveness of her strikes swing the judges to her favor at times. So she will likely outperform her striking metrics in general. She also has decent head strike metrics which helps her out. I still just think Vieira is more of a defensive fighter than an offensive fighter though.

As far as this matchup goes, I mildly lean Cavalcanti but a really dumb split decision seems at play here.

I favor Cavalcanti because I think she is a more skillful and higher output striker. If they just strike, I think Cavalcanti will win a mildly competitive fight. So picking Cavalcanti is fair.

My issue is again that Cavalcanti just fights super close. Also if anyone lands takedowns here, it is likely Vieira. One takedown landed by Vieira honestly probably wins a round and then we are likely sitting at a split decision. If Cavalcanti doesn’t pull away enough in the rounds that remain on the feet, this could get sketchy. Cornolle and Avila both landed a takedown against Cavalcanti so Ketlen landing a single takedown seems realistic. I think a 29-28 decision is the most likely outcome here.

The fight starts standing though and Cavalcanti is the better striker and Vieira doesn’t chase takedowns all that hard. So I do think Cavalcanti wins more often than not. I still think this will be dicey though. One takedown will probably land for Vieira and make this one very close.

—

On DraftKings, this fight is a super low priority.

Cavalcanti is priced at 8.5k and is close to being a fade. She is averaging 67 DK points per win which is awful, and she doesn’t wrestle. She’s also +475 to win ITD which shows little to no finishing equity.

The most likely outcome here, by far, is that in a win for Cavalcanti, she lands about 80 significant strikes in a decision and scores in the 60s. There just aren’t many other possibilities, unless she can win by knockout.

I am guessing Cavalcanti will be the lowest owned favorite and among the lowest owned fighters on the entire slate, possibly sub 10 percent. So if you like contrarian targets, Cavalcanti exists.

However, I just don’t see a path to her being optimal often, and I lean toward fading her with a limited portfolio.

Vieira is the preferred target by default and I think she has some viability at 7.7k.

I’m not especially confident in her and I’m not sure her ceiling is awesome, but she can land takedowns and she might very well win two rounds via top control.

Shockingly, Vieira has won nine times and scored between 74-88 every single time, with the vast majority of those wins scoring 78-85. In this matchup, she’s +550 to win ITD, so a mid-80s decision is once again the most likely outcome.

I’d be OK with that type of score this week, at 7.7k. It’s hard to label Vieira any kind of priority, but I think she’s a viable, low-end secondary target who can realistically give you 85 points in a competitive decision.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cavalcanti by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Andre Petroski vs. Cody Brundage

Fight Odds: Petroski -200, Brundage +170

Odds to end ITD: -160

DraftKings Salaries: Petroski 8.9k, Brundage 7.3k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with a clash between Cody Brundage and Andre Petroski in what is bound to be a fun middleweight bout for as long as it lasts. Let’s dive in. 

The Cody Brundage experience has been a wild ride inside the UFC. Considering his past history of accepting No Contests and looking for the easy way out sometimes, he is someone often criticized inside the UFC. Everyone loves to make fun of Cody Brundage, myself included. But I will say, he does accept fights against scary prospects and there is a level of excitement with most of his fights, having 70% of his fights ending inside the distance. He has a 100% finish rate in wins inside the UFC and has a danger factor early, having power and decent wrestling ability while he’s fresh. 

However, that’s probably where the nice things end for Cody. We last saw him take on Donte Johnson in March, where he was able to survive to a 29-28 decision loss with 2 takedowns and four minutes of control. He was a +525 underdog in that spot and heavily implied to lose via KO, but he showed some grit and was able to survive later, although that was also more from a lack of experience on Johnson’s to capitalize against him. 

Prior to that matchup, he took on Rowston where he was finished inside two rounds. That was more of the Cody Brundage we know, as he is dangerous early but fades late and can be finished by higher level prospects. 

He is now 5-8-1-1 inside the UFC and although he has fought a solid level of competition, he often takes the easy way out and has slowed down badly the longer the fight goes. 

Although Johnson couldn’t do it, he has been finished multiple times and we have seen time and time again that when people get on top of him late, they can often get him out of there. 

Like I said, offensively, Brundage is a dangerous fighter early on. He has a 91% finish rate in total with 63% of those victories coming in round one. He has solid power on the feet with the ability to land power hooks and pressure early. 

Additionally, he does have a college wrestling background although most of his ground game comes in the form of his guillotine. But it’s his defense, or lack thereof, where I do have my concerns. He has been finished 5 times but also dominated over the course of 15 minutes, showing holes in durability, cardio and minute winning. 

Although he is an explosive fighter early, his gas tank often lets him down and he slows heavily as the fight progresses. Additionally, he loses scrambles plenty while on the mat, not only by jumping guillotine but also by being over zealous and not having the ability to work his way back to the mat. Brundage is also someone who prioritizes moments over minutes, allowing him to be hit from range and loses optics. 

Now I know what you’re thinking. “Gordo, you’re usually so positive. Why so many negative points?”. Well the truth is, Brundage isn’t that good. He has solid power and finishing ability for a few minutes, and then struggles down the stretch. When he’s not winning early, he’s usually either jumping guillotine against a black belt, getting out grappled by horrible fighters like SD Dumas, or faking injury to be awarded a DQ victory. All results that leave you disappointed in him. 

Yes, I did like him surviving late against Johnson, and maybe his chin isn’t as bad as we thought it was. But that’s in a spot where he absorbed only 45 significant strikes and it wasn’t the prettiest optics from him late on the feet. 

However I will admit, there is a danger factor to Cody early. He does have power, he can wrestle well early, we saw that against Johnson. But if you survive the early blitz or drag him into deeper water, he will usually look for the way out.

Andre Petroski has had an up and down career to date in the UFC. He actually appeared on the Ultimate Fighter back in 2021, where although he was the favorite to win, he was submitted by Bryan Battle in the second round of that tournament. He was still signed to the organization anyways, where he was able to go 5-0 in his first five fights. 

Offensively, Petroski is really physically imposing and has a fantastic offensive wrestling game, where he lands 3.15 TDs per 15 minutes at a 51% accuracy. He even saw that submission game of his, as he submitted Nick Maximov as a large underdog in round one. However, that undefeated run ended abruptly as he took on the surging Michel Pereira and was finished in round one, before following that up with one of the most confusing KO losses in UFC history, as he was KO’d by Malkoun’s hip as he was shooting in on a takedown in 2024. 

The durability of Petroski has looked to be his biggest red flag. He has 4 UFC losses, was KO’d in 3 of them and dropped in his only decision loss to Edmen Shahbazyan. In fact, Petroski has been finished via KO in 4/5 losses, all of which ended in the first 2 rounds. We do worry about his durability and his cardio has also been in question too, as we have seen him slow down in fights and it was the gas tank that cost him the win against Battle on TUF. 

Offensively though, Petroski isn’t a bad fighter. I wouldn’t consider his striking his best aspect, as he can be slower to the punch and we have outlined his durability concerns, and he is typically using it as a means to set up his takedowns. But he can box with decent power and does have 4 KO’s to his name. He averages 2.81 strikes landed per minute to 2.79 absorbed with a 49% striking accuracy. 

However, Petroski is at his best from top position. We outlined the fact he averages more TDs per 15 minutes than strikes per minute, but from top he has great control and the ability to keep opponents there. We have seen him ride out decisions without much urgency, as we saw against Josh Fremd and Dylan Budka, but he can also advance positions and threaten finishes. He has a 62% finish rate with 4 KOs, 4 submissions and 4 of them coming in the very first round. 

We also saw that against not as dangerous strikers, like Rodolfo Vieira and Gerald Meerschaert, he is able to do well from range, kick the legs and pump out a jab. I wouldn’t want to trust him to do that all too often and he will be outstruck by better strikers, but it’s good to see he has that in the arsenal. 

Overall, Petroski is a dangerous offensive wrestler with solid top control, dangerous grappling and the ability to point fight from range. However, his lack of durability and questionable cardio are going to hold him back in this division, as he often has to stay safe and fight at his own pace if he’s going to be winning most of these matchups. 

For lack of better terms or professionalism, this is such a meme fight. It’s only fitting that Cody Brundage, who is 1-4 in his last 5 (I don’t care, Mansur beat him), has a beatable opponent in front of him. Don’t get me wrong, Petroski is the better offensive fighter. He’s the better minute winner, has a solid jab and his wrestling is really good. But his chin is a real issue. We have seen him hurt multiple times. By punches, even HIPS! 

As I outlined in my breakdown, Brundage isn’t very good, but he is damn explosive. He is going to go out there and throw with fight-ending intention early and if he connects, I don’t know if Petroski can absorb that damage. However the longer the fight goes, the more Brundage slows and typically looks for the door. Don’t get me wrong, Petroski isn’t a cardio machine. But I think Brundage is pretty finish dependent early and the longer it goes, the more I favor Petroski to win minutes on the feet and especially with top control in the wrestling. 

So I’m going to hesitantly pick Petroski here to take over as the fight extends, but I’m really tempted on Brundage. He has been physical enough to defend takedowns and will throw with fight-ending intentions. This is his most fragile fighter in a while and last time he took on someone with a questionable chin (Marquez), he was able to land that big shot. 

I’m going to list out Petroski’s last wins, and you can tell me if any of them throw as hard as Brundage: Rodolfo Vieira, Dylan Budka, Josh Fremd, Gerald Meerschaert. So it’s only right to pick Petroski due to minute winning and wrestling upside. But there is a real danger in the power Brundage has early and I do think he has a chance here. Interesting one, to say the least. 

—

On DraftKings, I firmly believe this matchup is proof that karma exists. I stole a candy bar (or something like that) when I was 7 and I’ve been punished for it by being forced to watch 7 years of Cody Brundage inside the Octagon.

Petroski is priced at 8.9k and I think he’s a viable upside play. I am still pretty sketched out by him though. He could lose. I also don’t think he’ll force a pace, and my gut feeling is that the fight will extend.

Due to that alone, Petroski could easily bust. He’s notably slowed down in recent years, and he doesn’t really pursue finishes anymore, which is opposite from his early UFC days. He has now failed to top 82 DK points in each of his last four wins.

Conversely, Brundage sucks and he’s a quitter. I think Brundage is more durable than Petroski, but Brundage will look for the door. There’s a decent chance in my mind that Petroski has more heart, and can get on top of Brundage in round two or three. At that point, Brundage might just quit and I think a mid-round sub from Petroski is pretty realistic.

Petroski is +190 to win ITD which is mediocre, and not especially strong for the price tag. He really doesn’t have to be viewed as a priority.

Brundage has actually not given up massive scores, though he’s given up six scores of 90 or more, only two have crossed the 100 point mark.

I think Petroski is an OK upside play. There’s no real reason to feel confident in him, and I’m very worried about the pacing of this fight. Petroski does have some finishing equity in my mind and could rack up points from top position if he ever gets there. I’d like to mix him in as a secondary target if possible but I doubt I’ll be overweight.

Brundage is priced at 7.3k and has some early finishing equity.

Petroski’s durability looks seriously concerning at this point, so I agree that Brundage could win by early KO. Brundage actually has the same ITD line at +190.

That line alone makes Brundage among the better dogs on the slate, on paper. It feels kind of high to be honest and I’m not going to use that one metric to force him into a ton of lineups. But he’s been relatively early finish or bust in his UFC career, and he’s averaging 107 DK points per win.

That last fight was so bad though. His coaches were yelling at him to do something in the final two rounds and he refused. I really don’t know how you trust him as more than a low-end target.

There’s finishing equity on paper here, and from a matchup standpoint, I think Brundage is capable of early damage. He’s still an underdog. He’s definitely in consideration as a punt this week so from a salary standpoint, I like mixing him in. I won’t end up with too much exposure though.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petroski by RNC, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana

Fight Odds: Ardelean -200, Viana +170

Odds to end ITD: +160

DraftKings Salaries: Ardelean 8.7k, Viana 7.5k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a low level fight here in the strawweight division between Alice Ardelean and Polyana Viana.

Ardelean is a Romanian fighter who fights out of England. She is 34 years old with a pro record of 11-7.

Ardelean fought Shauna Bannon in her UFC debut and lost a decision. She basically got a takedown in round 1 and fought off an arm bar and triangle attempt for a couple of minutes. In round 2, she struck competitively and got a takedown, and it was a very low level round. She got outstruck clearly in round 3.

Ardelean then fought Melissa Martinez and lost a decision in a really weird fight that played out exclusively standing. In rounds 1 and 2, Ardelean was the aggressor and outlanded Martinez 27-18 and 45-29 in significant strikes. I honestly thought Ardelean won both of those rounds. She was -300 on the live line too so the oddsmakers thought so too. Somehow every judge gave Martinez both rounds which was surprising.

In round 3, Martinez landed a flush liver kick that crumbled Ardelean to the canvas. The referee mistakenly ruled it a low blow but realized it was actually a clean strike upon seeing the replay. So they restarted the fight and it went to the cards. It clearly should have been a TKO win for Martinez. It was weird though because again I thought Ardelean won rounds 1 and 2. So theoretically Ardelean had a real case at a 29-28 decision. However, all of the judges gave Martinez every round which was just odd. I didn’t have a problem with it though because in reality Martinez was robbed of a TKO win, so justice was served in a way.

Most recently, Ardelean won striking based decisions against Rayanne Dos Santos and Conejo Ruiz. She showed some decent TDD against those two and outvolumed them. She landed 154 and 138 significant strikes which was some good volume.

Anyway, Ardelean isn’t good. She is kind of just a tough and enthusiastic girl who likes to come forward and strike, and will mix in an occasional takedown.

On the feet, I don’t think Ardelean is awful. She will at least come forward and try hard and put together some flurries of punches. She also seems somewhat tough. The issue is she is not actually skillful and she isn’t athletically gifted or fast. She just isn’t talented. She lands volume though and now lands 7.35 significant strikes per minute, and absorbs 5.20 in return. She doesn’t have much power, speed or flash though.

Ardelean can land takedowns here and there. However, I don’t think she is actually a good grappler. Her takedowns aren’t great and I don’t consider her great on top either. She is apparently a BJJ blue belt. I think her takedown defense looks fairly competent though and she is defending takedowns at 85 percent.

Ardelean will be taking on Polyana Viana. Viana is kind of a striker/guard player. Viana lands 2.74 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.50 in return. She defends strikes at 53 percent. I actually think Viana is okay as a striker. I am not saying she is a good one. However, she should be able to outstrike the lower tier strikers of this division. She also has some sneaky power and knocked out Jinh Yu Frey.

Viana has a brown belt in BJJ and won the world championships in BJJ in a lower belt division years back. I still don’t completely trust her BJJ considering she was guard subbed by Veronica Macedo which is honestly just embarrassing. She also recently got submitted by Iasmin Lucindo where she kind of just looked bad. In her last matchups against Gillian Robertson and Jaqueline Amorim, she was also finished on the mat. Those are good ground fighters though.

What I don’t like about Viana is that she doesn’t have strong offensive or defensive wrestling. She has only landed 4 takedowns in the UFC and defends takedowns at a poor 35 percent. She almost willingly accepts being taken down.

Viana generally has success with her grappling by playing guard and obtaining guard submissions. I do think she has a good guard and can continue to land armbars / triangles occasionally. However, she lost to Aldrich by playing guard, not obtaining a submission, and getting controlled. The same thing happened vs Tabatha Ricci. She is just going to lose rounds off her back if her opponents can stifle the submissions which will continue to happen more and more as she faces more seasoned grapplers.

As far as this matchup goes, I think Ardelean is a better wrestler, especially defensively. If Ardelean wants to land a takedown and get top position, she probably can. I don’t think Viana can land takedowns easily here. Maybe Viana can get a random guard submission but in 2026 I assume Ardelean doesn’t get guard subbed.

I think these girls will strike here. I think I favor Ardelean on volume. Ardelean will likely throw more than Viana and I trust her form a bit more. I still don’t think Ardelean is that skillful though. Viana might have more actual striking skill and more power. So Viana landing some good strikes and maybe hurting Ardelean is sneakily on the table here. However, over the duration, I expect Ardelean to land a little more, maybe mix in a takedown, and win a decision more often than not.

—

On DraftKings, I actually have mild interest in this fight.

This is certainly one of the lowest level fights on the card, but both fighters have issues and I think there’s some potential fantasy upside because of it.

We can start with Viana who is priced at 7.5k, and has only won in round one in the UFC. She is actually averaging 110 DK points per win..

She has lost seven times compared to four wins, and losing ITD three straight times will scare the public off here. She has lost to really good competition to be fair.

Primarily, I just think Viana is likely to win early, or not win at all. Her game has zero process, she doesn’t throw volume and she can’t wrestle. Her only realistic chance is to get something done quickly, and likely by submission.

I favor Ardelan on volume but if she randomly got subbed I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Viana is +315 to win ITD which is OK.

I don’t want to get overly excited about this spot, but I am willing to play Viana this week. I think she’ll be quite low owned, and she has a reasonable path to 90-100 points with a win.

This is a super low level spot and it won’t take much to be overweight to the field, but I don’t mind Viana as a sneaky pivot underdog this week.

Ardelean is priced at 8.7k and I think has some merit.

She has landed 138 and 154 strikes in her last two fights, which has led her to scores of 93 and 103 on DraftKings. Plus, Viana loses ITD often. I don’t really see Ardelean as likely to win by KO, but Viana has given up 93 or more points to her opponents in five consecutive losses.

With Ardelean, there’s a small possibility she can land 130+ strikes again. There’s some possibility she can win by mid-round TKO. There’s some possibility she can land takedowns and earn top control. So there are actually a lot of ways to score.

I still slightly lean toward the most likely outcome here being a slower paced, more competitive decision, and one that doesn’t exceed value. But Viana sucks, and in a loss, she tends to give up points. At 8.7k, Ardelean can work hard and potentially reach 90-100 points.

I am guessing Ardelean won’t be too popular despite her recent box scores, and she’s only +315 to win ITD. She’s not a priority for me. I wouldn’t rule her out though and if the finishers priced above her fail, Ardelean could potentially sneak her way onto a mid-range build.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ardelean by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule

Fight Odds: Gurule -145, Barez +125

Odds to end ITD: +125

DraftKings Salaries: Barez 8.2k, Gurule 8k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a bit of a random fight here in the flyweight division between Daniel Barez and Luis Gurule.

Barez is a Spanish fighter who is 17-7 professionally. He actually fought Carlos Hernandez in the Contender Series and lost a close split decision.

Since then, Barez has been finished by Jafel Filho and Andre Lima, both by submission. Those fighters are pretty dangerous and good so it’s not the worst look, but I do think Barez has a bit of a tendency to collapse. Barez won a close striking based decision against Victor Altamarino which was his lone UFC win.

Barez has okay takedowns and can maintain top position on the mat. He has 8 wins by submission, and I consider him an okay submission grappler. His grappling defense also looked decent and he defended all 8 of Hernandez’s takedown attempts. However, Barez has been submitted a few times and he can be taken advantage of on the mat later on in fights.

I think Barez is skilled on the feet too. He is fast and at times can be aggressive. He closes distance well and has some power and has hurt several opponents. He doesn’t have the best volume and has landed 67 and 52 significant strikes in his UFC decisions, but it isn’t terrible. He is basically just a guy who can be in competitive fights in the low tiers of this division.

Speaking of lower tier fighters in the UFC, that is exactly what Barez will face this weekend against Luis Gurule.

Luis Gurule is an American fighter who is 10-3 professionally. He is 32 years old. 

Gurule booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating extremely talented Division 1 three time Oklahoma State all American and undefeated prospect Nick Piccininni.

Nick Piccininni is a super high level wrestler and has a win over Spencer Lee who is a 2024 Olympic silver medalist.

Piccininni actually landed 10 takedowns on 20 attempts against Gurule. However, Gurle minimized the control of Piccininni and scrambled up very well. Gurule actually still managed to land 105 significant strikes and got the better of the striking exchanges and won the decision. I thought it was a good performance by Gurule but it was more of a showcase of his defensive wrestling than his offensive production.

Gurule comes from a wrestling background and wrestled at a division 2 school. The wrestling background makes sense given he was able to scramble with Piccininni. 

Gurule doesn’t always wrestle offensively though, even though I think he is somewhat capable. He also showed he is skilled as a grappler and locked in an arm triangle a few fights ago. 

I am not sure how good of a submission grappler he actually is though. He seems positionally aware. However, sometimes he just lets opponents up and I consider kickboxing to be his preferred method of fighting. He also just hasn’t wrestled much in the UFC and his takedowns have been ineffective. I think he is more so a good defensive grappler but doesn’t have much offensive wrestling potency.

Gurule is a decent technical striker and he prefers to kickbox. Apparently he has a kickboxing background. He will pressure often. He will mix in inside boxing by springing into range. He also low kicks and kind of just touches up his opponents. He will mix in a rear teep kick to the body as well. I consider his hands decent. He likes to move forward a lot and I consider him skilled defensively. I consider his cardio to be a strength.

I do think Gurule is a decent fighter and he seems technically well-rounded. He can kind of go through the motions technically everywhere.

My main issue with Gurule is just that he kind of only strikes and I don’t consider him super talented on the feet. He is decent, but I feel like he is always stuck in touch sparring mode. He kind of just goes through the motions offensively and does the bare minimum offensively. He just doesn’t do enough damage either. He is okay but his offensive limitations will surely cap him in the UFC. 

Those limitations showed against Jesus Aguilar as well. Aguilar isn’t even very good but Aguilar is aggressive and fights hard. Aguilar is almost the opposite of Gurule in a way. Gurule is honestly technically equal or superior to Aguilar but because Aguilar was willing to throw more, fight more aggressively and with more passion, etc. Aguilar was able to get the decision win because of that. Gurule’s passiveness is clearly a problem and it will likely get him cut from the UFC this weekend.

Gurule again fought Alden Coria and lost the fight in a clean 30-27. Gurule again was not urgent, was in sparring mode, and didn’t have any offense. Like what is Gurule’s goal offensively in a fight? He just goes out there and exists in the cage.

As far as this matchup goes, you can probably guess where I am going with this. I will be picking Barez because Gurule doesn’t do enough and that’s really it. I literally pick against Gurule every fight and it has been working out.

On the feet, I think this is competitive but Barez has more power and fights with more intent. I think that will get Barez ahead on the cards and Gurule will probably be stuck in sparring mode, wondering why he lost the fight after 15 minutes. I think that alone is why I favor Barez here. I also think Barez is more likely to land a knockout or a big shot. Gurule has been getting hurt frequently and Barez can crack a bit.

I still am somewhat skeptical of Barez on the mat and as a collapser. However, I don’t trust Gurule’s takedowns or aggression to take advantage. My guess is these guys generally strike and that the winner of the striking exchanges will win this fight. Given Gurule is an idiot and doesn’t throw enough, Barez should have the advantage.

—

On DraftKings, I don’t expect the public to be excited to target this fight but the value may force it.

Gurule is now 0-3 in the UFC, and Barez is 1-2 after also losing on DWCS. It’s a really shaky fight to feel comfortable with, which is the theme of this card.

Barez is priced at 8.2k and I guess I lean toward him being the preferred target for finishing equity. He’s knocked down two of his past four opponents, and Gurule has been hurt a couple of times. I can at least make the case that Barez has mild KO equity.

However, Barez is only +280 to win ITD, and he’s now the underdog on paper. I don’t really feel comfortable picking him to win by knockout. He can also wrestle some, but unless he turns it into a quick sub, I’d expect Gurule to scramble free.

The good news is that he should see less ownership, and might be in the low 20s or mid teens. I consider Barez an adequate contrarian target at 8.2k now. He has a mild upside case and should be relatively low owned, but the most likely outcome here may still be an 85 point decision.

Gurule is priced at 8k and is the value side.

He’s now up to -145 to win, which is kind of surprising, but worth noting. Due to the value alone, he’s a reasonable secondary target on win equity and will be in cash consideration as well.

I do think Gurule can win. He has enough volume to keep up with Barez. He can wrestle a bit and do so defensively. Barez gets tired. I think a Gurule decision is pretty realistic.

Gurule is +280 to win ITD as well, so in theory he has similar finishing equity to Barez. It’s even harder to click on Gurule’s name though given his history.

I’m pretty curious where the public will fall on this spot because the value is now clear, but Gurule isn’t trustworthy and his box scores are awful. I’m going to project him initially around 30 percent as I don’t think he’ll climb too much higher, but we’ll see where the betting line falls on Saturday.

Either way, I don’t mind some shares of Gurule for the value, and there’s mild finishing equity. I worry the most likely outcome in a win for him is still probably 80 points, so I don’t think I’ll end up chasing exposure here at chalk.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gurule by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Shauna Bannon vs. Nicolle Caliari

Fight Odds: Caliari -275, Bannon +235

Odds to end ITD: +240

DraftKings Salaries: Caliari 9k, Bannon 7.2k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night opens with a women’s strawweight bout as Nicolle Caliari looks for her first UFC win as she takes on Shaunna Bannon. Let’s dive in. 

Shaunna Bannon makes her return to the UFC this weekend, looking to bounce back after suffering the first finish loss of her professional career last time out against Sam Hughes. 

Bannon made her UFC debut as an undefeated fighter in 2023 as she took on Bruna Brasil and lost a striking based decision. She was able to follow that up with back-to-back wins over Alice Ardelean and Puja Tomar, before losing to Sam Hughes last September. Now, at 7-2, the 32 year old Irish fighter looks to continue to improve and climb the ranks. 

At her best, Bannon is a point fighter from distance with solid kicks and ability to mix it up to all levels. She isn’t the most violent finisher, with just a 44% finish rate including two KOs and a submission, but she is able to mix up the levels quite well with her kicks. 

With her in and out movement on the feet, she is able to land volume and score on the judges scorecards, and it was that volume that helped her beat Ardelean despite being taken down a couple times. She’s averaging 4.32 strikes landed per minute to 3.75 absorbed, where she uses her kicks and in and out movement to stay safe. 

We have seen her hurt and dropped before, as Puja Tomar hurt her and almost finished her, before she was able to reverse positions and lock up an armbar from bottom position. 

Despite not landing a takedown in the UFC, she does have solid grappling from top position and was able to beat Shanelle Dyer using it on the amateur scene. She can conversely be taken down as well, as she’s defending shots at 40% and has been taken down 6 times in the UFC, including being rag dolled by Hughes who had five and a half minutes of control before locking in that submission. 

At the end of the day, Bannon won’t blow you away. She’s a point fighter and can definitely outpoint lower level fighters from range, but she lacks the finish upside or a potent ground game to really offer anything else. If she gets a 15 minute kickboxing affair, she can outpoint fighters with optics. But we have now seen her rocked on the feet, beaten by quicker boxers and taken down and mauled on the mat. 

Although she does have her paths to victory, she’s not a fighter I’m lining up to back in this division, as I would like her to improve her ground game or moment winning before trusting her at too high of a clip.

Nicolle Caliari has exactly the style of fighting UFC fans want to see in women’s MMA… a 100% finish rate. The 29 year old Brazilian competed on Contender Series in September of 2024 and added to that record, getting a first round armbar against a pretty good grappler in Corinne LaFramboise. 

She unfortunately hasn’t had the same sort of success in the UFC, as she has taken on big and physical strikers Carli Judice and Ernesta Kareckaite and lost to them both. She fought to a close split decision against Kareckaite, where she was able to land three takedowns and almost four minutes of control time, but she wasn’t able to have as much success against Carli who outlanded her 109-32 and finished her with a knee in round three. 

At her core, Caliari is always looking for the finish. She has 8 wins split between 5 KOs and 3 submissions, and all of them have ended in the first two rounds. 

She throws her punches with fight-ending intention and does hold solid power, but she only has a 38% striking accuracy so far and the big hooks can lead her to be countered. 

I do think her best attribute is her grappling. She has been able to land takedowns at a solid rate in the UFC, averaging 2.88 per 15 minutes. From top position, she is submission over position and someone who is always looking to finish the fight. 

The issue for Caliari though, is with that fighting style, she can slow down as the fight goes on and she has never won a fight that has hit the third round. She is 0-2 to the decision and can lose minutes from range, and we have also seen her finished in round three twice, once to Judice within the promotion and then to UFC vet Kay Hansen on the regional scene. 

I would tend to consider Caliari a finish or bust type of fighter, but the truth is she was close to beating Kareckaite and those who have finished her late have been solid pace fighters. 

Either way, the gas tank is not great and although she is fun to watch early, she does slow down late. I do think she can win minutes with wrestling but everything she does is with fight-ending intention. Although that is refreshing in this division, it can also cost her if her opponents are able to survive the early onslaught. 

Overall, Caliari is a dangerous girl with solid boxing, fight ending power and dangerous submission grappling, although she can slow down as the fight goes on as well as be out pointed from range against those who can survive the early threats she poses.

Man, this fight could hurt me. Not because I’ll have too much interest in either fighter long term, but because I am way higher on Nicolle Caliari here than I should be. When has backing a fighter without a win in the UFC and with only 10 minutes of cardio gone wrong? 

Seriously though, this should be Caliari all day here. Yes, there’s a world where Bannon out points her from range with kicks for 15 minutes but I just don’t see Caliari allowing that. She is going to bring the fight, is far more physical and will have a huge advantage on the mat. 

If you’re being dropped by Puja Tomar and submitted by Sam Hughes, I would consider Caliari far more powerful and much more dangerous in the submission grappling. Even if she slows late, Bannon doesn’t push the pace enough to offer as much finish upside to match what Judice or Kareckaite was able to do, nor should she be able to take over late. 

I think Caliari has plenty of finish upside early, with both power and grappling, as well as the ability to win minutes through moments or wrestling here against a fighter in Bannon who is able to be pushed around. 

Again, this is no lock, Bannon can certainly just spam body kicks for 15 minutes and win minutes. But I am going to pick Caliari to win at a high clip due to that finishing upside and her physicality. Give me Caliari to get her first UFC victory this weekend. 

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On DraftKings, I don’t consider either fighter a priority but there’s some fantasy merit.

Caliari is priced at 9k and has some grappling and finishing equity. On paper, she’s +275 to win ITD but she’s never won a decision, and Bannon was just choked out by Sam Hughes.

I don’t think a submission is out of the question for Caliari, though it’s hard to rely on. Although I don’t love most of the plays in this range, I am guessing nearly everyone else will draw more ownership. It makes sense, Caliari hasn’t won yet and has looked kind of bad.

At the very least, Caliari is one fighter who has some wrestling equity so she’s less boom or bust. She’s not going to project super well and it’s very fair to prioritize the better ITD options. I do think she’s an adequate contrarian target if she ends up being low owned, just by default and given Bannon is pretty low level.

I suppose ultimately I will prioritize the ITD options too and therefore won’t end up with a ton of Caliari. I wouldn’t be shocked if she landed 3-4 takedowns and won the fight though, and I view her as a reasonable direct pivot off any other boom/bust target.

Bannon is priced at 7.2k and has some decision equity.

I’m not totally sure how this fight will play out if it’s purely at range. I don’t think Bannon is very good but Caliari has been beaten up in her last two fights. Maybe Bannon could hurt her.

Realistically, Bannon can win a competitive decision which probably isn’t enough to be excited about. She’s only +700 to win ITD and likely won’t wrestle much.

I don’t hate her for win equity and she saves a lot of salary, but a decision win probably scores in the 75 point range and that could very well miss the optimal. For that reason, she’s really only a salary saver and/or floor based target who I might end up with small amount of exposure to on stars and scrubs builds.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Caliari by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Rodolfo Bellato – FIGHT CANCELED

Fight Odds: Bukauskas -120, Bellato +100

Odds to end ITD: -150

DraftKings Salaries: Bukauskas 8.3k, Bellato 7.9k

Weight Class: 205

Power strikers Modestas Bukauskas and Rodolfo Bellato will square off on Saturday in the light heavyweight division.

Bukauskas is coming off a knockout loss to Nikita Krylov, while Bellato is coming off a knockout win over prospect Luke Fernandez.

Bellato wasn’t having a ton of success against Fernandez and seemingly hurt him out of nowhere, following up with nice ground-and-pound to finish the fight. He’s now 3-2-1-1 in his last seven fights, including DWCs, and carries the rainbow record on Tapology with a draw and No Contest in the mix.

Bellato is primarily a kickboxer, and a mediocre one at that. He carries power and all three of his recent wins have come by knockout, but he doesn’t stand out from any other perspective.

Bellato is landing 5.37 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.86 per minute with a 46 percent defensive rate. He was actually knocked out by Vitor Petrino in his first DWCS attempt, he was knocked down by Ihor Potieria in his UFC debut, and then he was knocked down by Jimmy Crute in the fight after that.

That doesn’t include the wild fight against Paul Craig where Bellato seemingly faked being up-kick KOd by Craig, which is what resulted in the No Contest. He was also outworked to a decision by Navajo Stirling.

I just consider Bellato a mid-level kickboxer with some power. He’s not going to run away with rounds, and he can be hurt. He can dish out damage himself. 

Bellato can also wrestle some, and lands 1.38 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s actually taken down five of his seven opponents, but has only earned 2.4 minutes of control time per 15 minutes, while being controlled at 3.4 minutes per 15.

Bellato is a BJJ black belt and has four wins by submission but there’s a triangle choke and leg lock mixed in there, so I don’t really consider him any real ground threat other than against low level competition.

He’ll be taking on Modestas Bukauskas who is coming off a KO loss to Nikita Krylov in January.

I’m not a big fan of Bukauskas and wasn’t particularly surprised by that result. He’s a fine boxer but he’s so low volume and that’s what I’ve always hated about him.

Bukauskas lands 3.24 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.05 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate. He’s now in his second stint in the UFC and looks generally like the same fighter to me.

To be fair, Bukauskas has won more recently, and was on a four-fight win streak prior to losing, but he was facing terrible competition including Cerquiera, Paul Craig, and Marcin Prachnio.

Bukauskas picked up a couple of early KOs against Cerqueira and Craig, but he’s not super dependable to win by early KO because of his lack of volume. And when fights extend, it’s a real worry for him in rounds because he’s just not throwing enough.

We’ve seen Bukauskas (essentially) go the distance and land 40, 44, 38, 56 and 44 significant strikes. It’s just not enough.

Defensively, Bukauskas is OK, but he’s been KOd three times now, excluding the severe injury KO against Rountree back in 2021.

Bukauskas doesn’t wrestle much either, and lands 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. He defends at 79 percent.

I think Bukaukas has a super limited ceiling based on his lack of offense, and he’s not particularly more likely to win by KO than he is to lose by KO. He’s fine technically but in extended fights, his lack of volume and a ground game is a major concern.

This is not a fun matchup although it could be entertaining if someone wins by early KO. There’s a reasonable chance at that, particularly because both fighters have power and questionable durability.

The problem is neither fighter is particularly urgent, and so there’s also a good chance in my mind that we see them each land 40-60 strikes in a super boring decision.

I think I will pick Bellato but I don’t feel great about it and the fight should certainly be lined competitively. My issue with Bukauskas is that in his eight fights that have gone past the first round, he’s essentially failed to outland anyone. His best numeric performance was outlanding Petrino 9-8 in a fight he got KOd, and outlanding Oleksiejczuk 58-56 in 2021 in another fight he lost.

We’ve at least seen Bellato reach 80 strikes on three separate occasions, so of the two, I feel more confident that if we see an extended fight, Bellato is going to throw and land some volume. Bukauskas will be a bit more dependent on power and moments, which still may be enough.

Bellato is also the more likely fighter to land takedowns, though I don’t expect it to mean much in this fight and I’d bet on the two neutralizing each other.

There are simply many ways this could go, and it’s another super high-variance matchup. I’ll pick Bellato but both he and Bukauskas have some early KO equity, and otherwise, I’d expect an ugly, competitive decision.

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On DraftKings, this is another super boom or bust matchup.

It’s really up to you if you want to get involved. The fight as a whole is -150 to end inside the distance which isn’t terrible but isn’t suggestive of massive early finishing equity.

And if the fight doesn’t end quickly, these guys just aren’t going to produce enough offense to make the optimal lineup on an average day.

Bukauskas is priced at 8.3k and he’s ultra boom or bust. He’s scoring 8.8k DK points per 5 minutes according to MMA Labs, which is egregiously low, and he’s only averaging 78 DK points per win.

In an average fight, my take is that Bukauskas needs to win in round one to have an optimal shot, which is simply tough to feel confident in. He is +175 to win ITD here but only +475 to win in round one.

I don’t mind having some exposure to Bukauskas with a moderate portfolio. Fading him is a risk. But there’s no way I can prioritize him and I tend to just shy away from these spots because lack of volume typically means lack of chances to actually get the KO.

Sprinkling in Bukauskas as a semi-contrarian mid-range target makes sense as I don’t imagine he’ll be popular, but he’s not at the top of my list of fighters to target.

Bellato is pretty similar and priced at 7.9k.

While he does produce more offense than Bukauskas, 80 strikes and/or 1 takedown isn’t going to move the needle enough. At best, Bellato is a bit more likely to be optimal if he can win ITD in any round, rather than being solely tied to the first round.

Bellato is +225 to win ITD and I suppose he’s my preferred play of the two. I wouldn’t take a large stand, but Bukauskas is coming off a KO loss which always makes me feel uncertain, and I think Bellato is a bit more willing to throw.

This is still a very boom or bust spot and I won’t attack it heavily, but it’s a fight you should probably mix in as there’s still KO equity on the table.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bellato by Decision (Confidence=Low)