UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott (4/18/26)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

MAIN CARD

Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott

Fight Odds: Malott -310, Burns +260

Odds to end ITD: -550

DraftKings Salaries: Malott 9.3k, Burns 6.9k

Weight Class: 170

Canada’s own Mike Malott gets center stage as he’ll face Gilbert Burns in front of his home crowd on Saturday.

Malott is 13-2-1 professionally at age 34, and he’s earned five wins by knockout and six by submission. Malott has been a longtime coach at team Alpha Male and also reps Niagara Top Team.

I’ve honestly always been skeptical of Malott, and I still don’t fully trust him as some top level prospect. I consider him a solid, dangerous, well-rounded fighter but there are certainly holes to pick apart in his game.

For starters, I’ve always been concerned about his ability to fight in extended matchups. He had never won a decision prior to 2024, though he’s since picked up three-round wins over Trevin Giles and Kevin Holland. Neither of those fights took place at a high pace though, and Malott didn’t land 60 strikes in either contest.

In his fight prior, Malott was dominating Neil Magny until the final couple minutes of the third round, where he was reversed, and TKOd on the mat. That was an extremely concerning result and one that’s hard for me to shrug off.

Malott’s level of competition has been pretty awful as well. I guess his best career win is his most recent one over Holland but even that was awkward considering Holland was kneed in the balls in the first round and could barely get through the fight. Besides Holland, Malott’s best wins include Charles Radtke and Adam Fugitt.

Additionally, Malott’s a very skilled grappler, but his defensive wrestling has been non-existent. He currently defends takedowns at 14 percent, and has been taken down by guys like Holland, Magny, and Mickey Gall.

I just watched the Holland fight and it kind of pisses me off because Holland takes him down, and then just stands back up and starts kicking him in the thighs. Malott entangles his leg from the bottom and is able to reverse the position, but that’s a major failure on the Holland side of things and a better grappler won’t allow him to do that.

Malott also lands 1.88 takedowns per 15 minutes and he’s fine there. He can dominate weak grapplers. He still typically only lands 1 or 0 takedowns in a fight. His career high is four against Magny where he looked solid on top until he gassed out and was finished.

I do think Malott is improving as a technical striker, where he’s fairly solid and dangerous. He lands 3.93 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 3.06 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate. He just doesn’t throw at a high pace and has only reached 50 strikes in a fight once in his whole career.

I am fairly certain Malott is not a top level fighter and he will be exposed if he gets real steps up in competition. But he is capable everywhere, and has decent finishing instincts. He’s shown the ability to fight for three rounds as well so I can’t knock him too badly. I simply don’t trust him to win rounds at a high rate and I have defensive and pacing concerns.

Gilbert Burns has been a mainstay in the welterweight division for a while and although he’s lost a bunch of fights recently, it has come to the best of the best.

Burns has lost six of his last nine fights but those losses have come to Michael Morales, Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena, Belal Muhammad, Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman.

Burns is one of the best submission grapplers in the sport and that was his base coming into the UFC. He’s extremely dangerous on top and on bottom, though he’s become less potent there in recent years.

Burns is a pretty solid wrestler too, landing 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes. He was up two rounds to zero on Maddalena in 2024, taking him down seven times and taking his back before getting knocked out in the third round.

Burns has also developed his striking dramatically over the years but it’s always seen ups and downs. His durability is questionable and he’s been hurt a bunch of times, and he’s now coming off a first-round TKO loss against Morales.

I have mixed feelings about that loss because Morales was so much bigger and more physical than Burns, and Burns kind of just quit. I don’t know if I’d rather see him fight to the death and be knocked out, or quit like he did. It shows me he doesn’t really want to or need to be in there taking damage, but at the same time, it’s not like any one shot will put him unconscious.

To be fair, Morales is a beast and just did the same thing to Sean Brady, so I can’t fault Burns too much. He’s 39 years old though and doesn’t need to climb the ladder again.

Overall Burns lands 3.15 sig strikes per minute and absorbs 3.64 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate. Those aren’t great metrics and they’ve gotten worse as he’s fought better competition.

He did have a somewhat recent war with Chimaev where he landed 119 sig strikes and hurt Chimaev. Since then, he was outlanded 132 to 81 by Muhammad and 130 to 47 by Brady.

I still think Burns is decent but I don’t think he’s a championship level fighter. He can’t implement his wrestling enough to beat great competition, and his striking isn’t good enough to win rounds consistently. He is decent everywhere though and not a pushover.

This is a pretty solid matchup I suppose for those reasons. Burns is a massive step up in competition for Malott, while I’d consider Malott a massive step down in competition for Burns. But Burns is nearing the end of his career and the trajectory is certainly in favor of Malott.

To be honest, that’s probably the only reason why I’m leaning toward picking Malott here.

My gut instinct is to get behind Burns. I think Burns is the better wrestler and grappler of the two, and he’s generally had success against everyone but the elites of the division. While Malott is fine and skilful on the mat, he is terrible at defending takedowns on paper and was TKOd by Neil Magny on the mat in 2024.

Let me repeat that for the third time. Neil Magny TKOd this guy. Burns fought Magny in 2023 and wiped him out in the first round.

I definitely think Burns can land takedowns here, and he honestly may be able to finish Malott. I wouldn’t bet on it necessarily but it wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t really trust Burns to wrestle for five rounds but I don’t trust Malott to wrestle for five rounds either.

We’ve seen Burns land seven takedowns in a fight recently so maybe 3-5 takedowns are in play for him, and he could win rounds with that. He could win by TKO or sub on the mat.

Conversely, I think Malott could probably take Burns down too. Burns is defending at 53 percent and gave up seven takedowns to Sean Brady. I consider Brady a way better wrestler than Malott. If Malott gets on top, I really doubt he could do much with it, but maybe he can control Burns for stretches of time.

Where I do think Malott has an advantage is on the feet. I think he’s a more technical striker and he’s better defensively. I also worry about the durability for Burns. So I could realistically see a knockout at any point for Malott and that is probably the outcome I will pick.

Still, Malott doesn’t fight at a high pace. He doesn’t win rounds super cleanly. He’s never been five rounds. Burns can hang in there at Malott’s pace and make rounds competitive. Maybe he can hurt Malott who has been knocked out before. I lean toward Malott having a sizable durability edge but maybe that’s incorrect.

I guess I feel that eventually, Malott will find the striking exchanges he needs and will hurt Burns. It could come early, or late. I think he’s likely to edge Burns out in striking exchanges even if there’s no knockout.

But I really do not have confidence in Malott and there’s a lot of red flags in his profile. Burns should have early wrestling success on paper, and again, I think he could even finish Malott on top. Malott is still very unproven past the first couple of rounds too, so even if we get an extended fight, there’s no guarantee Malott shows up.

You’d like to think for his first main event, in Canada, Malott will be on his game but you never know. I’ll pick him to win by mid-round knockout but this is not a spot I’d be touching from a betting standpoint.

—

On DraftKings, we have a weird slate, with very few exciting underdogs.

Early in the week, my thought process is that folks are going to want to pay up multiple times, and force a stars and scrubs type of build.

Malott is certainly viable as a top end target at 9.3k, but he’s arguably not the top priority. Both Barbosa and Jasudavicius surround him in price, and you can make a good case for both.

Obviously, Malott is going to carry a solid floor/ceiling combination in a win, and will be a very viable target in all formats. He’s one of the bigger favorites on the slate, with an elite -265 ITD line.

Malott has won ITD in the UFC four times, and he’s scored 94, 105, 103 and 111 DK points. Obviously we’d love 111 but you have to be mildly concerned about the 105 and 103 scores, and especially the 94 score.

If in theory Burns is landing early takedowns, maybe Malott isn’t producing a ton of offense early. Even if Malott wins by RD 1 KO, you can argue Barbosa can duplicate it or surpass it with the similar result.

So I don’t view Malott as a must this week. There are some ugly mid-range options who could come through, and Malott still has to compete with the other studs in the top end. He still has to win, which isn’t guaranteed.

Malott will project very well as the main event favorite and given the ITD line and early finishing equity, I do still like him. I think he’s a strong play overall for his upside in a win. However, I don’t view him as a clear stand out among the top range, and I don’t view him as a must at this price.

My guess is he comes in slightly lower owned than what’s average for the main event favorite, but I don’t see him pushing below the mid 30s. I’ll have plenty of exposure to him, but it’s not the worst slate to come in lighter than the field on the main event.

Burns is priced at 6.9k and is somewhat viable as a low end target.

I think he’ll get a fair amount of love leading up to this slate but when it comes down to it, the public won’t click on bad box scores. Burns has lost four in a row and he’s a big underdog, so I think his exposure will be pretty capped.

I do kind of like him. He’s one viable option to punt, with upside in the main event. He’s not out of the fight analytically, given his grappling upside and with the questions we have about Malott.

And I also think it’s possible he could be optimal in a loss. I wouldn’t play for that necessarily but we did see him score 55 points in a third round KO loss. He could land takedowns early and score 30-50 points, and maybe that’s enough.

I’m still only viewing him as a low-end secondary type target, and I wouldn’t want to build my portfolio around him. But given how bad the underdogs are this week, punting isn’t a terrible strategy and I’m happy to mix him in.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Malott by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain

Fight Odds: Jourdain -154, Phillips +134

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Jourdain 8.7k, Phillips 7.5k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I am excited for this bout here between Kyler Phillips and Charles Jourdain. These guys always bring it, and I think we are in store for some fun action this weekend. This is one of the best fights on the card.

Phillips is a good fighter. He is well-rounded and athletic. He lands 5.04 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.83 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. I like Phillips’ striking. He is fast twitched and serviceable. He is just really fast and athletic. His speed helps him a lot. You saw that in his last win against Munhoz where he was just too dynamic and speedy at range for Munhoz.

Phillips is also a good grappler. Phillips lands 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 5 takedowns per fight.  I really like the timing of Phillips’ level change / double leg as well. It is quite good.

Phillips holds a BJJ black belt and is good at passing in top position, landing GnP, taking the back, and threatening with submissions. He can really take advantage of weak grapplers. He also has solid takedown defense at 75 percent. 

The one criticism of Phillips is his cardio. He gassed out vs Paiva and lost back in the day. It wasn’t egregious as he mostly tired chasing a finish when he had Paiva hurt early. He also really slowed down against Rob Font and Vinicius Oliveira. I also thought he looked worse in those fights than usual. So his gas tank is clearly an issue that has consistently showed up in his fights.

Phillips will be taking on Charles Jourdain. Jourdain is pretty much a striker but also has a good guillotine. Jourdain lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.25 in return. He defends strikes at 56 percent. Those are decent ratios and he pushes a very high pace. Jourdain also has some power and has landed seven knockdowns with two knockouts in his UFC career. 

I simply consider Jourdain a competent UFC level striker. He fights hard with some pop and a bit of a pace. Good strikers can outslick him but Jourdain is tough and can hold his own.

Jourdain doesn’t wrestle offensively and has only lands 0.33 takedowns per 15 minutes. Defensively, he is not perfect as a grappler either. He defends takedowns at 47 percent, which is awful, and surrendered 5 takedowns, 4 takedowns, and 5 takedowns against Andre Fili, Desmond Green, and Nathaniel Wood, respectively. He also surrendered takedowns to Burgos and got his back taken for a bit.

I will say though, Jourdain does scramble up decently once he is taken down. Fili and Green only secured about 2 minutes of top control on Jourdain.

Jourdain is a bit of a guillotine specialist. His last three wins have actually come by guillotine against Ricardo Ramos, Vitor Henry, and Davey Grant. That is actually super impressive and just shows that Jourdain is super competent at one specific BJJ move. It isn’t a win condition you can completely dismiss against anyone.

Jourdain also seems pretty durable to me. He has had 26 pro fights and (36 overall fights if you include amateurs) has only been knocked out once before which was his most recent matchup against Jean Silva who is a heavy hitter.

As far as this matchup goes, I am going to go with Jourdain because I like his cardio more.

When these guys are fresh, Phillips may honestly be better. On the feet, it is probably quite competitive with each guy capable of trading strikes shot for shot.

I think Phillips is a better wrestler when fresh and he can probably land takedowns here but he may run into danger with Jourdain’s guillotine threat.

Overall though, I don’t trust Phillips to keep a pace up for 15 minutes. He will likely tire out and Jourdain actually generally builds as a fight materializes. So I think Jourdain will be at a clear advantage later in this fight and he will probably take over.

So my guess is Phillips has some early success but the tides then turn. Phillips does seem tough and he will fight through fatigue so I will pick him to survive. However, a mid to late round finish for Jourdain wouldn’t shock me.

—

On DraftKings, my initial thought early in the week was that Phillips would be a standout value, but we’ve actually seen the line move toward Jourdain in the past few days, so I’m no longer sure of that.

Phillips is priced at 7.5k and is only +134 to win, so he’s still simply too cheap. On this kind of slate, we are desperate for savings, so that does stand out.

There’s no reason he should be a sizable dog anyway. Phillips is the better fighter of the two at cardio parity, and he has wrestling upside. But his cardio sucks, and Jourdain excels as the fight extends. Regardless of what happens in round one, there’s a good chance Jourdain can beat Phillips up in round three and maybe finish him, so I’m not shocked the public is betting that side.

So despite the solid value, I’m not particularly excited to play into it.

When Phillips was +120, I still felt that playing a bunch of Phillips made sense. As his line moves, I’m less sure of that.

All the underdog options are kind of ugly on this slate, so if you’re not playing Phillips, are you chasing the ugly leverage targets like Herbert and Yannis? Or do you want to play the similar win equity targets as Phillips like Zhelezniakova or Aldrich. They are gross too.

Phillips has a really good chance to win two rounds and score 75 points, so I still think he’s pretty viable. He’s only +325 to win ITD and I wouldn’t bet on a finish. So his upside is arguably capped. 

I’d still consider him a solid secondary target considering the line value at 7.5k, and I’ll likely end up near the field.

Jourdain is priced at 8.7k and may actually still get ownership here.

If Jourdain was going to be a contrarian target, I’d say he’s a great one. Phillips has never been finished, but he’s nearly been finished, and Jourdain can really pick up momentum and pour on offense.

Plus, Jourdain keeps winning by early guillotine, so there are paths for Jourdain to score. He’s +240 to win ITD which is OK.

His box scores are decent though, which the public always plays into. So I actually don’t think this is going to be some incredible leverage target.

I guess I’ll summarize by saying, as of now, Jourdain is overpriced at 8.7k. His path to victory or to a ceiling isn’t a sure thing. But there are some issues in Phillips’ game that pair well with Jourdain’s style, and a late finish seems plausible.

Especially in mid-range lineups where it’s difficult to pay up further, I like some Jourdain. I also like using some Jourdain because I feel somewhat obligated to play Phillips, and if Phillips loses and gets finished, I’m going to be pissed at myself. So I’d rather just play into this fight as a whole.

Jourdain doesn’t have to be a top priority but he’s a fine secondary target who’s relatively affordable.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jourdain by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert

Fight Odds: Nallo -170, Herbert +145

Odds to end ITD: -200

DraftKings Salaries: Nallo 8.8k, Herbert 7.4k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight continues with the UFC debut of hometown favorite Mandel Nallo, who takes on Octagon veteran Jai Herbert. Let’s dive in.

Mandel Nallo appeared on the Contender Series as a 36-year-old prospect last September, where he impressed in his first round knockout of Samuel Silva. Nallo was an 8 fight veteran at Bellator, but took the Contender Series route after returning to the Canadian regional scene the past couple years. 

Lovingly known as “rat garbage”, Nallo is an all-action fighter. He has never seen the judges’ scorecards and in 17 pro fights, all of his wins and losses have come by way of finish. With a record of 14-3, Nallo has done pretty well for himself so far. He is a solid distance striker with good timing, quick in and out movement and dangerous power behind his shots. 

On the Contender Series, he landed 30 strikes in 3 minutes before timing a nice cross, putting down his opponent and finishing him with some hellacious ground-and-pound. That’s Nallo’s best skill set. He’s a good in and out striker and can time his shots well to find the off switch on his opponents. He has 8 KOs and 6 submissions, all coming in the first two rounds. He chops down the legs and then is able to time those big shots and put his opponents away. 

He will be dangerous in every exchange, especially early, but does have to worry about the shots coming back his way because he has also been finished in all of his losses, including two KO losses. 

The striking is the best attribute of Nallo’s, but he actually started his career as more of a grappler. His first 4 of 5 wins came by submission and he is a solid back taker and grappler with a black belt in BJJ. However he has been submitted as well and seems like he can be controlled, especially late. 

Nallo is going to rate out as a kill or to be killed fighter most of the time, and that is only accentuated later in fights. Nallo can slow down and has been finished in both round 3’s he’s been to. He himself has 12 first round finishes and is 12-0 to fights ending in the first round, but is only 2-1 to fights ending in the second and 0-2 to fights ending in round three. He starts quick with a bouncy style and quick in and out movement, but as he slows becomes more hittable and the durability isn’t all that great. 

Overall, Nallo is a fun action fighter with great fluid striking and power, especially early and a competent ground game to take advantage of lower level competition. However his lack of durability and concerning cardio make him a tough fighter to trust at the higher echelon of the division.

Jai Herbert made his debut back in 2020 as a 10-1 prospect who held the Cage Warriors title. He hasn’t had the best run in the UFC, being 3-5-1 with the promotion, with some ups and downs. Herbert has never shied away from a fight, taking on top fighters like Renato Moicano, Ludovit Klein and Ilia Topuria already inside the UFC. 

Although that may have hurt his record, he has accumulated plenty of Octagon experience against some solid fighters. He is 2-2-1 in his last five with wins over Kyle Nelson and Rolando Bedoya. His first 4 fights inside the Octagon all ended by finish, but he has since gone to decision in his last five, utilizing his range striking more and more. 

Herbert started his career as a fighter dependent on moments. He has a 77% finish rate between 9 KOs and 1 submission, split between all three rounds. He has solid power and the ability to shut someone’s lights out. He needs those moments, as he is only averaging 3.07 strikes per minute with a 40% accuracy. That lower volume can lead to some slower fights, but he is being hit more than he’s landing, absorbing 3.26 strikes per minute to his 53% striking defense. 

On the mat, he has improved that ground game after being taken down five times and submitted by Moicano in 2021. He now defends takedowns at 66%, having only been taken down once in his last three fights, while conversely even landing two takedowns of his own in his win over Bedoya. 

The issue for Herbert, aside from his pace, has been his durability. He has been finished 4 times, 3 by KO and 1 by sub, including some highlight reel KOs by Topuria and Trinaldo, and having been KO’d by Rhys McKee on the regional scene. I don’t think his durability is abysmal, but he can be hurt and it is something to keep an eye on. 

Herbert is still someone who I think relies on moments. He does have solid range control to land big kicks, spending 58.5% of his fight time from range, where he is able to mix it up but mostly hunts the head, landing to the head 51% of the time versus 31% to the body and 18% to the legs. 

Overall, Herbert is going to rate out of a rangy kickboxer with solid power, decent moment winning opportunity and solid takedown defense. The ability to land a big shot is always there to win moments, but he lacks volume, can be hurt and doesn’t push a heavy enough pace to win extended decisions against the best of the division. 

I do think this is an intriguing fight. Considering Nallo’s 100% finish rate, in wins and losses, I would expect a striking based finish. From range, Nallo is a lot bouncier with his in and out movement and I do think he is quicker. He attacks the legs quite well and I do think he will win the early exchanges with his speed and power. 

With that, he can definitely get a finish. That’s typically his path and something that is certainly on the table against someone in Herbert who has been knocked out brutally in the past. However, Herbert hits hard too and although I give a slight speed edge to Nallo, he himself has been hurt and finished himself, especially late. 

If you want to include the wrestling path, I don’t expect there to be many exchanges on the mat. If anything, Nallo is a bit slicker there early, but that only affects his gas tank even more. So sure, Nallo could have some wrestling success, maybe threaten a submission. But the later the fight goes, I think Herbert could be the one who ends up on top and also be the fighter who could have some late success, since I’ve seen more proven cardio from him. 

So this is a really close one to call. At cardio parity, I would take Nallo. Home crowd, quicker striking, slicker grappler. But he slows easily, has fought lower level of competition and also has durability concerns, so Herbert can quite seemingly have some success late and maybe get a finish of his own. 

But considering I view Nallo as more dangerous early on, having a speed advantage, minute winning advantage and likely winning the first round at a higher clip, I will pick him to win barring a comeback win from Herbert, although there is plenty of variance considering durability concerns from both fighters. Give me the Canadian to win his debut.

—

On DraftKings, this is a decent fight for finishing equity, though I think most will land on the Nallo side.

Nallo is priced at 8.8k this week, though he’s only -170 to win. He’s -120 to win ITD as well which is one of the best lines on the slate.

Given his fight history, Nallo is going to rate out as a pretty solid, boom or bust upside option. In wins, it’s quite likely he can score an early knockout. But how safe is that outcome? Arguably not super safe.

Especially against another decent striker in Herbert, and an opponent who’s more proven at the UFC level. Herbert also doesn’t force exchanges, and we just saw him land and absorb 38 and 39 strikes in a decision against Chris Padilla. I’m not 100 percent convinced this fight ends early, and in fact, the fight only -200 to end inside the distance.

Still, Nallo is pretty effective and dangerous early, and Herbert’s chin is a vulnerability. I think this comes down to variance of durability essentially, which is a tough thing to predict, but it makes Nallo a solid upside option in tournaments. I’ll likely have moderate exposure at this price tag and I expect the field to do the same.

Herbert is priced at 7.4k and should be the leverage option.

The public hates targeting bad box scores, and Herbert’s aren’t great. He’s lost a bunch and even in his recent wins, he scored 85 and 64 DK points. I don’t think he will be popular.

Truthfully, I’m not dying to target him. I’m worried he loses early, I’m worried about pacing. There are lots of things that can go wrong.

What you’re essentially hoping for is that this fight follows every other Nallo fight. Either Nallo wins quickly, or loses ITD. Maybe Herbert can get a knockout here.

Herbert is +375 to win ITD which isn’t great, but shows some viability. He’s reasonably cheap. I primarily consider him a leverage target though. Nallo should be significantly more popular, and Herbert is one way to go against the grain, hoping he can survive early and score a mid-round finish.

I’m not in love with the play but with a larger portfolio, I think mixing in Herbert makes sense as a low-end secondary type target.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nallo by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva

Fight Odds: Jasudavicius -300, Silva +250

Odds to end ITD: +200

DraftKings Salaries: Jasudavicius 9.2k, Silva 7k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with a clash of flyweight contenders, as Canadian Jasmine Jasudavicius looks to defend home soil against Karine Silva. Let’s dive in. 

Jasmine Jasudavicius may have been close to a title shot after a dominant start in the UFC, but suffered a nasty setback last time out to Manon Fiorot, who knocked her out in just over a minute. Prior to that, she was on a five fight win streak with three finishes. She now has a UFC record of 9-3 and an overall pro record of 14-4. 

Jasmine made her debut on the Contender Series back in 2021 where she was able to win by decision with 4 takedowns and 8 minutes of control. That has been her style in the UFC, as she is an extremely physical wrestler with solid cardio and ability to land damage from top position. She’s pretty big for the division at 5’7 and utilizes that strength in the clinch to get fighters down to the mat. She’s currently averaging 2.59 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 44% accuracy, and as a former silver medalist for Canada, she is a pretty good technical wrestler. 

From top, she is super aggressive with damage, looking to land elbows and the ability to snatch up a submission, with a 44% finish rate and being 4-0 to the submission. She also has the ability to wear down her opponents down as the fight goes on, as she has multiple round three finishes, with the cardio to push a solid pace down the stretch. 

On the feet it isn’t as pretty. I would call her striking “parking lot style” as she’s often putting her head down and just swinging reckless hooks. She used to fall into the “Juliana Miller academy of crackhead striking” category, but I will say it has improved recently with more of a jab and ability to land damage while going forward. 

She’s currently landing 3.7 strikes per minute at a 45% accuracy while absorbing 3.71 strikes per minute with a 51% striking defense, which is honestly higher than I thought. Historically, she has been extremely durable. She wears damage well and is able to continue to walk forward despite being landed on. 

But that last loss to Fiorot was a bit concerning as she was just melted early and finished in 74 seconds. I would still consider her durable, I just think Fiorot is on a different level on the feet. I would still like Jasmine to improve her striking defense though, especially for the fights where she isn’t able to wrestle. In those matchups against Tracy Cortez & Natalie Silva for example, she can be stuck at range and landed on, as she lost minutes in the striking and lost both those bouts. 

While the striking is coming along, the bread and butter is still in the wrestling and the ability to land damage there. She lands plenty of strikes to open up the submission or win optics, just like when she landed 326 strikes against Priscilla Cachoeira en route to that late finish there. 

Overall, Jasmine is a dominant physical wrestler with big size and the ability to finish fights from top position. Although the striking is improving and she is someone who Is able to push forward and push a heavy pace for all 15 minutes, she’s still someone who I would want to have a wrestling advantage, since I don’t anticipate her having a striking edge against too many fighters.

Karine Silva made her debut on the Contender Series back in 2021, where she was able to lock up a 2nd round guillotine and secure herself a contract. She followed that up with three consecutive round one submissions in the UFC, putting her name on the map as a prospect to look out for. 

Silva is a dangerous grappler. She is 19-6 with an 89% finish rate split amongst 9 submissions and 8 KOs, including 13 of those finishes coming in the very first round. In fact, all of her finishes come in the first 8 minutes, as she is a front loaded but dangerous fighter who will look to get you out of there early. 

Although she started out on a five fight promotional finish streak, if you include the Contender Series, Silva has since  been to decision in her last four bouts. She is 2-2 in those, with losses to Viviane Araujo and Maycee Barber and wins over Ariana da Silva and Dione Barbosa, the former being a close and controversial one. 

We have seen in those extended fights that Silva isn’t always the best minute winner. She’s only averaging 2.48 strikes landed per minute at a 39% striking accuracy, and has been pretty dependent on her ground game. There, she is averaging 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% accuracy, while averaging 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. She was able to control Da Silva for seven and a half minutes and when she utilizes her physicality, can be a solid force from top position. 

However she prioritizes submissions and can be conversely held on bottom. She’s only defending takedowns at 21% and was held down for multiple minutes by Barber, Araujo and Barbosa. Like I said, she’s not the best minute winner and can lose optics in the striking or by being on bottom position. She is 2-3 to the decision and in my opinion, should be 1-4. When you are able to survive the early submission onslaught, Silva does slow down and lose striking exchanges, as well as can end up on bottom. 

You do have to give her credit on the mat because she has plenty of submission upside and a truly solid squeeze, but seems to be pretty one-dimensional in that approach if you are able to scramble with her. 

Overall, Silva rates out as a dangerous submission grappler early on, but lacks striking, defensive wrestling or optics that she typically needs to win minutes, as well as cardio that has let her down before. She is a true threat on the mat with physicality and submission skills but if you are able to get past that early threat, she is someone you can easily control on the mat and outstrike on the feet. 

I would like to see her improve her striking volume and optics as well as defensive wrestling and cardio before trusting her at too high of a clip, but her early submission numbers are always in play if you are looking for ways to back her.

It seems like it wouldn’t be a Canadian UFC card without Mike Malott or Jasmine Jasudavicius these days. Jasmine was on quite the run, winning five in a row and getting herself to a title eliminator, but was beaten convincingly by the striking, physicality and power of Fiorot her last time out. I do think this is a good spot to get back though. 

Silva is dangerous early, I’ll give her that. The majority of her wins are early subs and Jasmine does have to watch out for that in the first few minutes. Aside from that though, I think I give all the advantages to Jasmine here. She’s not the prettiest striker but will have a volume edge, be on the front foot and win optics with her jab and output. 

The big difference will be in the wrestling and cardio though. You have a front loaded submission grappler taking on a cardio based wrestling machine. Jasmine will have the ability to land takedowns against the 21% TDD of Silva and if she is able to stay safe, will be able to win minutes from top and start to land damage. There, she only grows as the fight wears on, whereas Silva is the opposite and will start to slow. 

I think Jasmine will have a minute winning edge in both the wrestling and the striking and a true ability to get a late finish as she continues to build in front of her home crowd. Sure, Silva could snatch up a neck and quiet the Winnipeg crowd, you have to give her a path with the submission grappling early. But I do think that outcome has a slim chance in comparison to the skills Jasmine has. Give me the Canadian to get back on track here, with only a little bit of bias. 

—

On DraftKings, Jasmine is priced up to 9.2k and is firmly in play.

We’ve targeted Jasmine plenty of times in the past as a wrestling dominator, and she’s come through. She’s averaging 105.2 DK points per win, and 21.8 DK points per 5 minutes, according to MMA Labs, which is the highest on this slate (excluding newcomers).

Simply put, Jasmine is someone who I will target every time she fights because she has a wrestling domination path to victory and therefore carries a high ceiling in any type of win.

In this particular matchup, Jasmine has a legit path to score. She’s obviously a sizable favorite as well, and facing an opponent with poor takedown defense. I am somewhat nervous about the early minutes and I think Silva has some early striking upside and submission upside.

If this fight starts to extend though, Jasmine could land several takedowns, earn several minutes of control and land lots of strikes. Jasmine also lands 5.26 non-sig. strikes per minute which is the highest on this slate, and one of the reasons why we like her. She won’t just sit on top and do nothing.

I don’t think Jasmine is a lock to win. I don’t think she’s a lock for 120 points. Malott and Barbosa have high upside above her. You don’t have to make Jasmine the number 1 priority on this slate.

However, she rates out well from a floor/ceiling standpoint. She’s only +400 to win ITD but we’ve seen her smash in decisions, and Silva has also lost three times ITD. If she gets too chalky, pivoting off is fine, but it’s hard not to view Jasmine as one of the safer fighters this week for her wrestling equity and I’ll likely end up with moderate exposure.

Silva is priced at 7k and is a fine punt.

Silva is still averaging 93.2 DK points per win, and in order to beat Jasmine, you have to produce offense. I think more likely it would come in the form of a finish, as Silva doesn’t do enough per minute to win rounds consistently.

Silva is only +400 to win ITD, so she won’t rate out well, but I suspect the field will be higher on her. Jasmine was just KOd, and Silva has pretty strong box scores for her price tag.

I think Silva and Burns will get a fair amount of ownership this week in the bottom end. I also think it could be correct. At least Silva carries upside in her style.

I am not expecting to end up with a lot of exposure to Silva but I do view her as a fine punt. With a larger portfolio, I’d mix her in as a low-end, leverage type play. She may be more popular than I’m willing to play her but taking a couple chances for the early finishing equity is fine.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jasudavicius by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young

Fight Odds: Young -135, Moises +115

Odds to end ITD: +130

DraftKings Salaries: Young 8.4k, Moises 7.8k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a tricky fight here in the lightweight division between UFC veteran Thiago Moises and Gauge Young.

Moises is a decent fighter. He is well-rounded and doesn’t have many technical holes in his game. He is a decent striker, a decent wrestler, and a decent submission grappler.

However, I really just dislike Moises’ overall offensive output. He only lands 2.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.08 in return. He also only lands 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. That just isn’t enough offense to ever run away with rounds. It will always be a concern of mine with Moises.

Moises does have skills on the feet though. He is no slouch. He has decent pop and has some good calf kicks. He really struggles to pressure sometimes though and can be overwhelmed if his opponents put a pace on him. You saw that against Benoit Saint-Denis and Ludovit Klein.

Moises is a pretty solid submission grappler and he has won by submission a lot recently. However, he only attempts 4 takedowns per fight. I do think he can outgrapple weak grapplers. He actually landed 4 takedowns against Holobough and Melky Costa. However, you can’t always trust him to really push for volume takedowns. Moises defends takedowns at 52 percent which is okay. He can also scramble up decently.

Moises will be taking on Gauge Young. Young is 10-3 professionally.

Young actually fought on the Contender series against Quinlan Salkilld. He lost a competitive decision where he was just a little behind on the striking and grappling exchanges. Young did compete and have moments though. He then lost to Evan Elder (who I actually think is fairly good) by a striking based decision. Young finally got a UFC win against Maheshate where he landed 3 takedowns and outlanded Maheshate 112-66 in significant strikes. He didn’t look great but he is tough and will at least try to attempt offense.

Young is okay. He comes from a wrestling background and I just consider him an okay wrestler. He is capable of landing takedowns and landing ground-and-pound. However, his competition on the regionals has been terrible and I don’t think his offensive wrestling is all that good. I don’t think he will consistently outwrestle UFC lightweights. 

However, he can land some takedowns against low level guys like Maheshate. His defensive grappling is okay. He was taken down on the Contender Series a lot but he did work up well. 

Young can strike a bit. He is capable of landing straight punches and can mix in leg kicks too. He has a little bit of pop. However, he is just so green and you can see it in his defense. He can get popped and absorb clean strikes. He is tough though with decent cardio, so he can stay competitive in fights.

Young is just whatever to me. He is not good or terrible anywhere. He is young (no pun intended) so perhaps he can improve. However, he is just too much of a generalist and a little too green. I basically think he can be in some competitive scraps against low tier UFC lightweights but that is about it.

As far as this matchup goes, this is super close. I think Moises is a more seasoned fighter and more skillful. I think he is a more technical striker with more refined weapons like his calf kick. I also think he is a better submission grappler. His quality of competition is also leagues above Young’s. The losses Moises has had have come against good fighters. So it wouldn’t shock me if Moises is a little too slick for Young, lands some calf kicks, maybe gets a back take and a body triangle, and wins this.

I just keep going back to the fact that Young is tougher though. He is just more of an actual fighter who won’t wilt in a war. I also think Young is more aggressive and that he will just attempt more offense than Moises. I know this is half-baked analysis, but in a competitive fight, the tougher guy who is willing to be more aggressive can be a difference maker and that is why I am going to pick Young in this matchup.

My guess is we have a lot of competitive moments on the feet with Moises landing the occasional leg kicks but Young moving forward and being more willing to throw. I think either guy can land takedowns here but I think both guys are good enough defensive grapplers that there will be a level of neutralization. If Young has grappling success I think it will be because Moises is wilting to a pace. Moises having grappling success will probably be from a quick body triangle. 

I still am picking Young though because I think he is a little tougher and more aggressive.

—

On DraftKings, I think this is a fine secondary mid-range matchup to target.

There’s really no reason to have confidence in either side, and I agree with the above analysis.

Young is priced at 8.4k and I think is worth some consideration. Primarily, Moises has just been finished now a ton of times. He’s giving up 107.8 DK points per loss which is a ton, and he’s coming off an ugly first round KO loss to Gordon.

Young isn’t great, but he is tough and does have some pop. He’s also willing to fight hard, which Moises doesn’t love. Moises wants to throw 50 strikes per fight at a slow pace.

So realistically, I could see scenarios where the pressure and power of Young break Moises. He has knockout upside and he is +250 to win ITD. Is he a phenomenal play? He might not look like it in hindsight.

Regardless, I think Young is a solid secondary target this week. He can mix in takedowns. He will attempt enough strikes to give him a chance, and there’s some damage upside baked into his style. You’ll probably need a finish but at 8.4k, I’m willing to buy some shares of Young just given how many points Moises gives up in losses.

Moises is priced at 7.8k and is viable too, especially considering that we’re lacking any good options below the mid-range.

I really don’t love him, and I’m not a huge fan of Moises in general. He does tend to pick up finishes and he’s technically good everywhere. He submitted Melky Costa. I wouldn’t be shocked if he got Young’s back. Those calf kicks can also be tough to deal with.

The real issue is Moises doesn’t want to produce offense. So if he gets his way, this fight will suck. He’ll land 50 strikes and 0-1 takedowns in a decision and bust. My hope is that Young forces him to fight and therefore, there’s a better chance for upside in a Moises win.

Moises is +300 to win ITD which isn’t great. Young is tough and I lean toward Moises winning by decision if he wins at all. So I’m not dying to invest here. We’re so desperate for value plays though that I’m OK mixing in Moises who is historically a talented and well-rounded fighter with experience.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Young by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa

Fight Odds: Barbosa -500, Buzukja +375

Odds to end ITD: -650

DraftKings Salaries: Barbosa 9.4k, Buzukja 6.8k

Weight Class: 145

The UFC will welcome an exciting newcomer in Marcio Barbosa who will take on Dennis Buzukja this weekend.

Barbosa is 17-2 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned 14 wins by knockout and two wins by submission.

Barbosa is a pressure striker. His goal is to walk you down, find the pocket, and start to unload bombs in the form of power hooks, where he can knock you out. He’s pretty decent in that style, and he put his opponent down badly on the Contender Series last August.

I don’t think Barbosa is super special though. He’s not great at kicking distance, and he’s relatively dependent on damage. He’s only been out of the first round a few times in 19 pro fights, and in two of those times, he was knocked out.

One of those losses came in 2021 where Barbosa got kind of hurt shooting and falling on a takedown attempt. His more recent loss came against Gabriel Santos who kind of schooled him. Barbosa had one big moment early but then Santos took him down easily, and took his back. In the second round Santos just knocked him out with a head kick. Santos is legit though.

Obviously, when a fighter is this dependent on early finishes, I am going to be skeptical. I don’t think he fights explosively enough to the point that he can’t fight three rounds though. I don’t see him and think, oh my god he’s going to gas any second. But he just doesn’t offer a whole lot unless he’s throwing bombs in the pocket, so without big shots landed, his opponents can pick at him from distance.

Additionally, I’m really skeptical of his ground game. I thought his defensive wrestling looked really bad against Santos but it’s looked OK other times. He’s apparently a black belt in jiu-jitsu but it looked like he had zero idea what to do when Santos took his back. He has a couple of guillotine chokes and uses them sometimes instead of defending takedowns, which I hate.

It’s just another example of him likely being moments dependent. I definitely think good wrestlers and grapplers can beat Barbosa, but maybe his physicality and first level defense is enough to keep the fight upright often.

He’ll be taking on Dennis Buzukja, who has earned a 1-3 record in the UFC after going 1-1 on the Contender Series.

Buzkuja had some hype coming into the UFC because he trained with Merab and Aljo, but he doesn’t carry the same level of skills, clearly. I think he’s a mediocre kickboxer at best, and he’s relatively tough.

Buzukja is landing 4.21 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 4.82 per minute with a 48 percent defensive rate. He was outlanded 102-57 on the Contender Series by Baghdasaryan, and 71-42 by Sean Woodson. Neither performance is awful.

Buzukja’s best performance came against Connor Matthews, whom Buzukja outlanded 83-60 and knocked him out in the third round. He also hung very tough with Francis Marshall in his last fight, after getting hurt in the second round, he arguably won the third.

Buzukja is just very limited. He doesn’t wrestle much, and only lands 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes. He isn’t a volume machine. He is adequate at kicking distance and he has some power, but he’s not a massive finishing threat.

He was also knocked out in the first round by Jamall Emmers in 2023, and Francis Marshall knocked him down in his last fight.

That last fight was the most concerning, because Marshall was able to walk him down, and he hurt him badly in the pocket. It’s exactly what Barbosa will aim to do, but Barbosa is a legit finishing threat and Marshall really isn’t. It seems pretty reasonable to think Barbosa can hurt Buzukja early and get another TKO.

Conversely, although Buzukja was hurt, he survived. And he landed 30 strikes in the third round.

Barbosa is clearly going to be more impactful on a strike per strike basis. When Barbosa connects, he’ll do some damage. But can we trust him to fight through round two and three? I really don’t know.

Additionally, while Barbosa is the bigger hitter for sure, he’s been knocked out twice. Buzukja will throw, and I think there’s a level of variance to this matchup that keeps Buzukja alive.

Even if Barbosa walks him down and throws bombs in the pocket, it wouldn’t be completely crazy for Buzukja to hurt him. And if he simply survives some early exchanges, you could argue Buzukja will fare much better down the stretch.

I don’t particularly trust Barbosa, but I do think he’ll have his moments here. Buzukja just isn’t dynamic enough to escape him for three rounds. So I think Barbosa will probably walk Buzukja down and hurt him. I guess I will pick him to win by first round knockout.

If Buzukja simply survives, I think he has a legit path to winning later rounds, and potentially even hurting Barbosa himself. I’ll lean toward the damage of Barbosa being enough though.

—

On DraftKings, Barbosa is the biggest favorite on the slate and the most expensive fighter at 9.4k.

Whether he’s a priority over Malott and Jasmine priced below him is a different question, but Barbosa will rate out super well and will be among the highest owned fighters on this slate.

I think there’s a chance he’s actually the number one highest owned fighter as well, considering Malott’s odds are dropping. Barbosa is -300 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate, and he has the best Round 1 prop of any fighter at +100.

It makes sense given his history, Barbosa is a knockout artist and that will be the field’s expectation this week. It’s a pretty reasonable outcome on paper too.

I like Barbosa a lot for that reason. I think the public will pay up frequently to him, as well as the other two studs priced below him, and combos of that group will be extremely popular.

Of course he is boom or bust. He hasn’t proven he can win if the fight sees round two, let alone produce a big fantasy score. There are red flags in his profile. You can certainly argue that Malott as the main event favorite or Jasmine as the wrestler are superior targets for cheaper.

I’m not going to worry about it too much. If he busts, he busts. He’ll be one of the only fighters on this slate with elite finishing equity, and it’s a reasonable prediction to see him win by KO early. I’m willing to play him moderately when I can afford him.

Buzukja is priced at 6.8k and I believe he will be the lowest owned fighter on the slate.

I understand why, and he’s probably my least favorite fighter to click on. I expect him to come in below 10 percent ownership, like we saw Luque last week.

I do think he’s viable, as I thought Luque was. It’s hard to get much exposure here as it was there, so it’s relatively dependent on how many lineups you’re playing with.

But Buzukja, for what he lacks, is tough and will try hard. If the fight hits round three, I don’t see why he can’t compete in striking exchanges, and he might even have knockout equity.

Buzukja won’t rate out super well with a weak ITD line, and he’s not a real priority. It’s fine to fade him with a smaller portfolio and simply hope the biggest favorite comes through.

There’s enough variance in striking exchanges, especially with an unproven newcomer, that I don’t think taking a few shares here is an awful strategy. It’s only a just in case thing but at 8 percent ownership with leverage against a 45 percent owned favorite, maybe it’s worth a sprinkle.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barbosa by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)

UNDERCARD

Robert Valentin vs. Julien Leblanc

Fight Odds: Valentin -145, Leblanc +125

Odds to end ITD: -215

DraftKings Salaries: Valentin 8.3k, Leblanc 7.9k

Weight Class: 185

Canada will call upon 34-year-old newcomer Julien Leblanc to defend his home country against former TUF finalist Robert Valentin.

Leblanc is 10-2 professionally and fights out of Patenaude Kung Fu in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada. I’m not sure how to pronounce any of that so ask Gordo.

He’s earned four wins by knockout and four by submission, and was a champion in Samourai MMA.

Leblanc is a primary striker who stands Southpaw and uses a karate style, where he’s light on his feet and likes to play at kicking distance. He throws a solid rear kick and straight left hand which I think are among his better weapons.

Leblanc has also shown the ability to clinch and land damaging strikes on the inside, where he uses some good knees.

One thing that stands out to me about Leblanc is that he isn’t a top tier athlete. He’s one of those types that you look at and think, yeah this guy has never taken any kind of PEDs in his life. He’s just not a physical presence and that will definitely cap his ceiling.

Leblanc isn’t really a major power threat, in part due to that lack of physicality. I think he can compete just fine at distance but he’s not a real one-hitter quitter. In fact, a lot of his finishes come from attrition in the mid-rounds, and his last three wins have all been in round two or later.

One of his recent wins came in a five round fight, where Leblanc was losing early, and then cut his opponent badly with a knee, with just seconds left in the third round. I like that aspect to his game, as it seems his cardio is strong, and he’s someone I’d trust not to tire out quickly.

Leblanc isn’t a particularly good wrestler, and he’s had some defensive issues. It really just stems from physicality. I’ve seen guys dump him on his back and hold him there for long periods of time. He can scramble up OK but I worry about him against good wrestlers at this level.

His most recent loss came by decision to Bauman in 2021, who just outwrestled him for three rounds. Leblanc seems like he has some idea of what to do on the mat but he’s not a dangerous submission grappler.

Overall, I’m honestly not high on Leblanc and I don’t see him panning out, unfortunately for the Canadian fans. He’s a decent striker and has some shot to win striking rounds, or wear on guys a bit and hurt them as the fight progresses. I don’t think he’s an elite round winner or finishing threat by any stretch of the imagination, and is probably a wrestling liability as well.

He’ll face the former TUF finalist Robert Valentin, who is now 0-3 in the UFC and will likely be cut with one more loss.

Valentin is now 10-6 record at age 31, fighting out of Switzerland. He’s earned three wins by knockout and six by submission, and he finished both of his TUF matches in the first round.

Coming from TUF, I thought he was a pretty fluid kickboxer with some possibly well-rounded skills.

On TUF, he melted his first opponent in seconds and followed up with some nasty shots on the mat. In his second fight, he and his opponent were trading early, and Valentin had the guy hurt a bit. Valentin decided to throw bombs against the cage but ended up getting rocked himself, and then shot a takedown. He ended up on top and finished with a nice crucifix arm lock.

Otherwise, his regional tape made him seem like a somewhat dangerous fighter early. He was taking guys down and taking their backs in some of his recent regional fights. In others he was more kickboxing based.

At his best, Valentin can be pretty fast and explosive, and definitely has some knockout upside. I’m not certain about volume over an extended period, and his durability is questionable.

What we’ve seen thus far in the UFC has not been great. In the TUF finale, Valentin lost to Ryan Loder, who took him down and TKOd him from the crucifix. Loder isn’t good, but he’s a fine wrestler.

In his next fight, he lost a split decision to Torrez Finney which is one of the reasons why I was so excited to fade Finney against Malkoun. Finney took him down eight times and controlled him for more than 13 minutes, but still lost a round and an entire scorecard as Valentin was mildly active from his back.

Most recently, the UFC sicked Ateba Gautier on Valentin who knocked him out promptly in the first round.

Each of these losses can be debated contextually, as this is a very clearly different type of matchup against Leblanc. He is not the caliber of a wrestler like Finney or Loder, and he is not a massive power threat like Gautier.

For that reason, on paper, this is a much better fight for Valentin and one he could win.

I see this fight mostly taking place on the feet. Valentin is a bit more physical and explosive, and fights Orthodox. Leblanc is a bit more efficient and fights Southpaw, so the body kicks should be open for him.

Valentin really has not been a decision winner to this point though, which is honestly my primary concern for him. I don’t think Leblanc blows him away anywhere, and in singular exchanges, Valentin should compete just fine.

I think Valentin could do some damage and he might be able to take Leblanc down. This would honestly be a good matchup for Valentin to use his own wrestling, and I honestly think he has a shot to win the fight with it. He had a slick back take on Loder but just hasn’t been able to string his grappling together against better wrestlers.

But if we assume Leblanc defends a couple takedowns or scrambles up, and the fight progresses on the feet, I think it’s more likely Leblanc takes over. We’ve seen Valentin hurt on TUF and knocked out by Gautier. I don’t think Leblanc kills him but if the fight hits round two or three, I could see Leblanc wearing on Valentin and hurting him then.

Leblanc has wrestled a bit and because we’ve seen Valentin fail on his back, maybe he can land takedowns here too. I kind of doubt that will be his primary game plan though but maybe it’s possible he gets some top position.

Ultimately, I guess I lean toward Leblanc given I have no reason to trust Valentin at this point. I am quite nervous because this is just such a different stylistic matchup to anything Valentin has seen recently, and I don’t think highly of Leblanc as a prospect. But I do favor Leblanc as an efficient striker over three rounds, and expect him to do more as the fight goes on, at home in Canada. 

I consider Valentin live in a high-variance fight like this with a lot of potential outcomes, but I lean toward a decision win for Leblanc though a mid or late round stoppage is in play.

—

On DraftKings, I think both sides are viable as this is one of the more likely fights to end inside the distance on this slate.

With that said, this fight is still only -215 to end inside the distance, yet it is still third on the slate behind the main event and the Barbosa fight, which tells you how few fights are projected to finish this week.

Valentin is priced at 8.3k and will rate out as the higher upside target on paper. More specifically, Valentin is more likely to win this fight early. He’s -105 to win ITD which is strong for the price, and essentially puts him into a category of fighter who I think you need exposure to.

It should be noted though that Valentin is 0-3 in the UFC, and has terrible box scores. Usually the public still hates this kind of play and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come in lower owned than we’d expect. Leblanc has never been finished as well, so it’s not as easy to do MMA math and be confident in an early Valentin finish.

I don’t think Valentin is a clear smash or anything, but in a shaky range, I don’t mind leaning on the ITD targets. At least, he’s a solid secondary option with upside. If he only projects to be owned in the 20-30 range, you can argue coming in overweight is the right call.

Leblanc is a viable target as well.

I’m unsure whether he’ll get much ownership but I am guessing in the mid or low 20s, depending on where his betting line ends up.

I like him in that range. Valentin has given up 105 DK points on average in his losses, and he’s coming off an early knockout loss. I don’t view Leblanc as a major power threat but it’s possible he picks up a knockout along the way.

Leblanc is only +300 to win ITD and won’t project as well. He may also be lower owned than Valentin.

This range is really gross with no real sure things, and I don’t mind mixing in Leblanc personally. I won’t aim to take a major stand here but around the field or a bit over feels fine.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Leblanc by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)

Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam

Fight Odds: Saricam -158, Boser +138

Odds to end ITD: -140

DraftKings Salaries: Saricam 8.5k, Boser 7.7k

Weight Class: HW

Canadian MMA legend Tanner Boser will return to the UFC after a semi-successful first stint, to take on former Bellator striking prospect Gokhan Saricam.

Boser is 22-10-1 professionally at age 34, and he’s been competing as a pro since 2012. He’s earned 12 wins by knockout and eight by decision.

Boser first debuted in the UFC in 2019, and he picked up a 5-5 record in the promotion before his contract expired in 2023. He’s only fought once since, winning by retirement in round three at UAE Warriors last June.

Boser is your standard tough guy, and someone who has gained the respect of MMA fans because of it. He’s not a great athlete, and for most of his career he was fighting up at HW where he is a bit undersized. He was considered among the most durable fighters in the sport, and he’s only been TKOd twice in 33 pro fights.

Boser excels on the feet where his metrics are pretty solid. He lands 4.70 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 2.75 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. I was actually surprised to go back and see that three of his five wins came by knockout, because I do not consider him a major power threat.

Mostly, I consider Boser a decent round winner. He can strike at a moderate volume, he’s tough, and he can attack multiple levels. He lands 32 percent of his strikes to the legs which is a lot, and another 20 percent to the body. So he is far from a head hunter.

Boser is just a bit capped due to his athletic and finishing ceiling. He’s also not a wrestler, and has never landed a takedown in the UFC. His losses in his first stretch were respectable, and include Ion Cutelaba (TKO), Rodrigo Nascimento, Ilir Latifi, Andrei Arlovski and Ciryl Gane.

He has knockouts over Ovince Saint Preux and Philipe Lins, and his most recent UFC victory was over Aleksa Camur, whom he outpaced 120-68.

His recent regional win was ugly though. He was taken down early, and then his opponent just gassed out and quit in the third round. Not even quit as he got TKOd, he just gave up. It doesn’t mean much generally but I’m not sold Boser is in some great form.

I do think he’ll be up for the challenge in his return to the UFC though, especially at home in Canada. I doubt he can go far in this division but he’s a capable striker with decent cardio, and that will put him in the mix in most matchups.

He’ll be facing newcomer Gokhan Saricam, who is making his UFC debut with an 11-2 record at age 35. Saricam has earned eight wins by knockout and three by decision, and fought for years in Bellator where he picked up a 5-2 record.

Saricam is primarily a boxer, and a decent technical striker. Like Boser, I would not consider him an elite athlete, and that is one aspect of his game that has held him back.

While Saricam is skillful, he’s not an extreme finishing threat either. He has eight TKO wins, but his last four fights in Bellator all went to decision, and even his two TKOs in the organization were due to ground-and-pound.

He was popped by USADA in 2024 while attempting to fight in PFL, and was suspended for a year. He most recently fought on the regionals a couple of times and won by TKO in the first round in both matchups.

Another issue with Saricam’s game has been his defensive grappling. Both of his pro losses came on the mat, where he was taken down and subbed by Mowry, and just held down by Oleg Popov.

I actually don’t think he’s egregiously bad compared to some HWs, but it’s clearly a liability in his game. He actually wrestles offensively though too and isn’t terrible. I’ve seen him shoot double legs, and I’ve seen him win by TKO via ground-and-pound.

I definitely don’t think Saricam is easily beating good competition on the mat, but he can land a takedown here and there.

Primarily, Saricam will get his work done on the feet where he’s a fluid boxer. He has decent knees on the inside as well. He can kick a little bit. He’s not an elite finishing threat but he can win rounds and his cardio is decent.

This feels like a pretty decent matchup all things considered. I’m excited to see Boser back in the Octagon, and I think Saricam is a respectable talent.

There’s a decent chance this one is competitive too. Both fighters rate out similarly, and I think the most likely outcome is a decision.

My assumption is that this fight plays out on the feet for the most part. Boser is surely live, especially at home in Canada. And on paper, he might even have more power than Saricam. But Saricam seems tough, and I feel Boser might be a little bit slow in this stage of his career.

Conversely, Saricam is probably the more technical striker, and might have a bit of a pure boxing and speed advantage. I just don’t know if I see him running away with rounds, because Boser is insanely durable, and Saricam isn’t necessarily known for finishing good competition.

Of the two, I’ve seen Saricam successfully land takedowns more often, and it might honestly be a good path for him to mix it up. I don’t think he has tremendous upside on the mat but one or two takedowns could help him seal a round. Boser in theory could have success from top position but he’s not trustworthy enough to wrestle.

I suppose I lean toward Saricam overall. He just has a little less wear on his tires, and I think he’s technically solid on the feet, and probably has a slight grappling advantage. 

My best guess is that a semi-competitive decision is still the most likely outcome, so I wouldn’t favor him too heavily, and I respect Boser enough to think he can kickbox his way at distance into some tighter rounds, or potentially score a big moment to swing the momentum in his direction.

—

On DraftKings, I’m more interested in the Saricam side.

Of the two, I have more faith in the upside of Saricam. He’s a respectable boxer with some power, and he could have a speed and form advantage over Boser. I also think he may be the better wrestler, and we’ve seen him win with ground-and-pound.

Saricam is +135 to win ITD which is pretty decent, and he’s another fine upside option on paper.

There’s still no reason to feel confident here. The fight itself is only -140 to go the distance, and in an extended fight both sides probably bust. Perhaps Saricam can get there via takedowns.

I don’t think Saricam is a standout play by any means, but he’s a viable option who I’d like some exposure to in case he can find a finish.

Boser is priced at 7.7k and I’ll probably end up lighter on him.

Of the two, Boser seems less likely to wrestle. Maybe he has knockout equity but it’s hard to rely on it.

Boser is only +340 to win ITD which doesn’t make me feel too excited. I’m guessing the public won’t be too high on him either.

This range is a real toss up, so if you prefer Boser to another random dog target, that’s OK. This is still HW and we could randomly see a knockout on either side. I don’t necessarily view Boser as a fade.

I just think the most likely outcome for him in a win is that it’s a competitive kickboxing affair where he scores 80 points. Perhaps I’m underselling his finishing ability but I’d feel better about it with a better ITD line.

I think Boser is still worth mixing in with a large portfolio as there are ways he could hit, but I lean toward some other dogs in this range and have some ceiling questions here as well.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Saricam by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Melissa Croden vs. Darya Zhelezniakova

Fight Odds: Croden -153, Zhelezniakova +133

Odds to end ITD: +180

DraftKings Salaries: Croden 8.6k, Zhelezniakova 7.6k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a low level WMMA fight between Melissa Croden and Darya Zhelezniakova this weekend. Even though this is low level, this will likely be exciting.

Croden is a physical, pressure-heavy fighter who relies on volume, durability, and cardio over technical refinement. 

Croden’s game is built on a high-attrition style where she looks to simply outwork her opponents through sheer output. She averages a solid 4.10 significant strikes landed per minute, but she isn’t a one-punch knockout artist; instead, she wins by landing consistently and forcing a pace that many of her previous opponents have struggled to match. I still don’t like her technical skills though. She can still look a bit linear and hittable when she’s moving forward.

Croden’s real strength is her work in the clinch and her overall toughness. She has never been finished in her professional career, which allows her to fight through damage to get to her own offense. In close quarters, she’s effective at using elbows and knees to wear people down, a tactic she used to pick up a late TKO in her UFC debut against Tainara Lisboa. She landed 99 significant strikes in that fight and 2 takedowns, and she showed she is capable of running through opponents after she wears them down.

While Croden’s wrestling isn’t technically great, she is strong enough to bully opponents against the fence and win rounds through control time. Ultimately, she’s a grinder who wins by being more durable and active than the person across from her, rather than relying on high-level technical grappling or one-shot power. She can start outstriking girls or outwrestling girls once they are tired out and worn down a bit. 

The issue though is again Croden isn’t technical and if she can’t gas her opponents out, she will likely lose as was the case against Luana Santos. Santos was able to just not slow down and easily outwrestle Croden over 15 minutes.

Croden will be taking on Darya Zhelezniakova. Darya is a Russian fighter who is 10-2 professionally. She made her UFC debut in 2024 and won a competitive decision against Montserrat Rendon by getting the better of the striking exchanges.

Darya’s one UFC loss came to Ailin Perez. We bet Perez there as it seemed pretty clear Perez had a grappling advantage. Perez took Darya down and submitted her in round one.

Darya then came back in her last fight against Melissa Mullins and won a decision by getting the better of the striking exchanges. Mullins had a grappling advantage in the fight but waited a little too long to go for takedowns in the rounds.

I don’t think Darya is very good. I profile her mostly as a striker. She is okay on the feet but nothing special. She outlanded Rendon 51-25 at distance and outlanded Mullins 99-64. She is somewhat skilled on the feet and can throw hard, and use some footwork here and there. She can mostly just go through the striking motions. She has some decent hand speed and is willing to throw down.

Darya was taken down 3 times by Rendon, was finished on the mat vs Mullins in their first fight, and finished on the mat vs Perez. She was also taken down 3 times by Mullins in her last fight and is defending takedowns at 50 percent. Her takedown defense isn’t awful and she can kind of work up to the feet. Her first layer takedown defense is kind of there. However, she can get pushed around in the clinch and taken down. She also really struggles on bottom once opponents consolidate top position.

Overall, I just don’t think Darya is very good. Striking based decisions are likely her path to victory at this level or by knockout. She is definitely a defensive grappling liability though.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think Darya is the better striker when fresh. I think Darya has more hand speed and is a bit better defensively. I favor Darya in the early striking exchanges in this fight. If Darya also just doesn’t slow down and gets two rounds mostly on the feet, she could steal this fight. Croden is hittable and I surely think Darya will have success landing.

The issue is that Croden is tough and will fight hard, and will likely still have some striking success of her own. Darya also doesn’t wear damage well and I think Croden can make this a mess on the feet as the fight goes on.

Furthermore, Croden is a better grappler and Darya has no bottom game. My guess is if these girls go to war in three rounds, Croden likely gets on top at some point by just being tough and tenacious. That could lead to a dominant round or maybe even a finish. Darya is seriously bad off her back and I do think Croden is a better grappler.

So I am going to go with Croden here. I expect Darya to have success early and a bit of a back and forth war in the extended striking exchanges overall. However, my guess is eventually Croden gets on top which will be the difference in swinging a round or a potential finish for Croden.

—

On DraftKings, I have mild interest in this fight as there should be some action.

I think Tim laid out the dynamic pretty well, which ultimately, doesn’t spell out a sure thing for fantasy scoring. I expect Zhelezniakova to have early striking success, but if she simply wins a decision, it may not score well.

Croden on the other hand has more grappling upside and that’s what we’d want from her. Survive some early striking exchanges, get on top and smash. It’s sketchy trusting her but she did come through for us in her UFC debut.

Croden is priced at 8.6k and is the preferred target due to grappling threat. She is only +220 to win ITD, but has taken some action this week from +265 which is interesting. The most likely outcome here may still be a non-optimal score, but she did put up 123 points in her UFC debut though, which is a pure ceiling outcome.

Just because we’ve seen Zhelezniakova taken down, and finished, I think we have to get on some Croden this week. She’s only a secondary target and not a real priority, but I like her as a mid-range mix-in and she could be mildly sneaky.

Zhelezniakova is priced at 7.6k and I think is a viable win equity target.

The underdogs don’t look great this week. There aren’t really stand outs at any price point. I still think we’ll see dogs win but I’m not sold they score huge.

That’s the primary reason why Zhelezniakova is in play at all. I don’t think she has a great ceiling case, and she’s only +500 to win ITD. I do like her striking though and I do think she’ll get off to a lead. Maybe she can just strike with a pace and score 80 points.

If she puts up 70-80 points at 7.6k, it’s still a decent bet that she isn’t optimal. Ultimately it’s why she’s not a great target this week, and I doubt will see much ownership. But on a weird slate like this, maybe a win is all it takes.

I don’t mind a sprinkle of Zhelezniakova for striking volume in a win, but she’s only a low-end target due to her questionable ceiling.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Croden by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Mitch Raposo vs. Allan Nascimento

Fight Odds: Nascimento -185, Raposo +160

Odds to end ITD: +115

DraftKings Salaries: Nascimento 9k, Raposo 7.2k

Weight Class: 125

We’ll get a clash of wrestler vs. grappler here as Mitch Raposo takes on Allan Nascimento.

Nascimento is 22-6 professionally at age 34, and he’s earned 16 wins by submission and five more by decision.

Nascimento debuted in the UFC in 2021 against Tagir Ulanbekov, having previously lost a decision to Raulian Paiva on DWCS. He lost that debut too, but has since picked up four wins in a row, including a recent submission win over Cody Durden last November.

Nascimento is a really strong submission grappler, and you can see it in his results. He’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu, and he’s dangerous everywhere. He’s super difficult in top position, with back taking and the ability to choke you out. He also has a solid transitional game.

Even from his back, Nascimento will hunt for submissions, though he can be stuck on his back at times.

Nascimento isn’t the greatest athlete, which means his wrestling is only adequate at best. He lands 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, but the more concerning fact is that he defends takedowns at 37 percent.

To be fair, he’s fought decent opposition. He was taken down four times by Tagir and held down for much of the fight, but threatening from his back actually earned him a split card in the defeat.

He fought another really solid grappler in Jafel Filho in 2025, which is a fight that I recommend watching. Filho was able to take him down four times, had Nascimento mounted and put in some really dangerous positions. Nascimento calmly worked out of it though, and was able to win the grappling exchanges in the back half of the fight to get his hand raised.

So, although we can’t really trust Nascimento to dominate opponents with wrestling, and he is a bit of a liability to be controlled, he is dangerous everywhere and capable of turning one grappling exchange into a dominant position that ends the fight.

On the feet, Nascimento is mediocre. His metrics are actually solid for a base grappler. He lands 3.06 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 2.53 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate.

He hasn’t fought the greatest strikers to be honest, and I’d consider him a liability against anyone legit, but he throws fine volume when he’s at distance. Purely at distance, he lands 5.87 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.96.

Against Paiva on DWCS, Nascimento landed 109 sig strikes in another split loss. He’s coming off a competitive fight with Durden where he was outlanded 57-52 in eight minutes, but hurt Durden in round two which led to the sub.

I think he’s a better kicker than boxer personally. More than 30 percent of his strikes are to the legs, which is solid. He’s not likely to dominate anyone but he can keep up on pacing, although his defense is a bit questionable.

He’ll be taking on Mitch Raposo this weekend who is coming off his first UFC victory last October against Azat Maksum.

Honestly, it wasn’t a great performance, and Raposo had lost his previous three promotional fights. It’s no surprise he’s a sizable underdog this weekend.

Raposo comes from a wrestling background and is also a BJJ black belt.

Raposo is somewhat small for this division, and although I think his wrestling is solid, he’s just not producing enough offense. He’s really only had one fight with any notable wrestling success, which came against Sumudaerji in 2025. In that bout, Raposo landed six takedowns, but he earned less than two minutes of control in each round, and was also outstruck 45-9.

In his other three fights, he’s landed 2, 1, and 0 takedowns for an average result of 2.54 landed per 15 minutes. He’s not effective enough from top position even when he lands those takedowns, so his upside is very limited.

He’s also coming off the win against Maksum, where Raposo landed 0 takedowns, but gave up seven takedowns on nine attempts. Raposo still somehow won, outlanding Maksum on the feet 30-19 over 15 minutes, while Maksum also had a point taken away.

That’s really the other issue, Raposo is landing 1.73 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.65 per minute. While I can’t say it’s luck that he won his last fight, I’d strongly bet against any fighter who lands 30 strikes over three rounds, without any real damage or grappling success.

So at the heart of Raposo’s game, he’s a solid takedown artist with limited top control. He produces very little offense on the feet and he’s pretty small. It’s not a great recipe for success.

In this particular matchup, the submission grappling gap is the primary concern. Although Raposo has a black belt, I think there’s a massive gap in true skill level and I think Nascimento has real submission upside if he entangles with Raposo.

In his lone Contender Series attempt in 2021, Raposo took Jake Hadley down a couple of times in the first round, but was taken down himself in round two, where he gave up his back and was submitted with a RNC. That seems like a very plausible scenario for this matchup as well.

The difficulty I suppose is that Raposo is the better wrestler, and Nascimento can work from his back. So if Raposo simply takes him down over and over and survives, he can win. He can win one or two rounds in an ugly decision.

On the feet, Nascimento may not dominate him. I do think Nascimento is better at kicking range, but Raposo is probably the better boxer. Neither man lands a ton of offense. I still favor Nascimento there, as he’s a few inches taller, has five extra inches in reach, and throws more on paper.

A striking fight would be super boring though, and I wouldn’t be excited to invest in Nascimento at chalk.

What I really want is for Nascimento to land a takedown of his own, which I think he can based on Maksum’s recent success. Raposo is now defending at 61 percent. It may only take one wrestling exchange, or even one clinch exchange for Nascimento to take his back, and then the fight may be over.

Ultimately, that’s what I would bet on here. Over three rounds, Nascimento seems likely to get one favorable grappling position, which either ends the fight, or leads to a dominant round. Even if Raposo shoots, he could get guillotined, or reversed. Or even armbared while Nascimento is on his back. Top position is a path to victory for Raposo but a risky one.

Nascimento doesn’t have the profile of someone I’m willing to trust at any price tag, and there are risks here, but Raposo simply doesn’t produce enough offense to bet on him winning in any one area. I think eventually Nascimento gets to the back and probably finds a submission, though I’m not sure that result comes immediately.

—

On DraftKings, based on my initial projections, I actually think we might see Raposo get some love as a cheap target.

Yes, you can play Gilbert Burns and Karine Silva as upside plays but they are big dogs, and I don’t think the public really wants to invest in Buzukja or Yannis.

So who else does that leave? JJ Aldrich? I actually wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Raposo creep into the 20 percent range, given he is now +160 to win and coming off a win.

His box scores are still ugly, and I mean really ugly. He just scored 48 DK points in a win. But at this price tag, a win is a win, and we know he can wrestle.

I think Raposo is a straightforward, low-end target. He doesn’t carry finishing equity on paper and is only +585 to win ITD. It’s not a particularly great matchup. However, he could land takedowns and squeak out a decision win. More importantly, he has win equity on paper for a cheap price, and is viable for that reason.

I’d argue that if he is 20 percent owned or higher, playing the JJ Aldrich and Jai Herbert types are preferred at lower ownership. They actually are more likely to win.

This is really not a fun spot for me. I think Raposo is a completely fine, low-end target who helps you build some stars and scrubs constructions. I do not think he’s a particularly great target otherwise and would be fine to come in light.

Nascimento is priced at 9k and is more of a second tier finishing option.

I think we’ll see the field build heavily into that top tier of Barbosa, Malott and Jasmine, and the second tier of Siraj and Nascimento may be overlooked because of it.

Nascimento has a solid floor in a win given his grappling style, but he probably needs an early finish. He’s scored 91 in a second round finish, and 83 and 66 in decisions, which just isn’t enough. His one early finish scored 107, which is what we want.

I do think it’s possible but it’s going to be hard to trust, and he’s still only +165 to win ITD. It feels way better to pay up and I’d probably prefer to do so.

If you can’t afford that top tier, or want to be different, you have the opportunity to pivot from Jasmine to Nascimento directly and leave some salary on the table, for example.

Nascimento is certainly worth some exposure for his finishing ability but there is a real concern that if it doesn’t come quickly, he won’t reach the optimal. I’ll likely only have mild exposure to him because of it.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nascimento by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth

Fight Odds: Horth -160, Aldrich +140

Odds to end ITD: +340

DraftKings Salaries: Horth 8.9k, Aldrich 7.3k

Weight Class: 125

We have a competitive mid-class matchup in the women’s flyweight division between JJ Aldrich and Jamey-Lyn Horth.

Aldrich is a veteran of the promotion now, having fought in the UFC since 2016, and she’s earned a 10-6 record along the way. She’s still only 33 years old and is arguably in her prime.

Aldrich is essentially a mid-level, round winning boxer. She comes from a taekwondo base but does her best work with her hands. She lands only 3.96 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 4.32 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate.

I do not like when fighters absorb more strikes than they land, and that is one problem with Aldrich. Her metrics are a bit skewed from a couple of losses where she was outlanded 101-49 by Ariane da Silva and 118-58 by Sabina Mazo, but the real problem with Aldrich in this sense is that her volume is capped.

Aldrich has gone the distance 13 times in the UFC, and she’s topped the 75 strike mark twice, with her career high coming in 2017. Her second best volume performance came against Vanessa Demopoulos in 2021, who coincidentally, or not, allowed Horth to tee off on her as well in 2025.

So typically, Aldrich is landing 40-70 strikes per fight, which is never going to be enough to cleanly win rounds. Her last five decisions have yielded totals of 74, 27, 65, 49 and 60.

Volume isn’t everything, but if the only thing you do is land punches, it’s better to land a lot of them. Aldrich doesn’t really separate from her opponents, and therefore, she’s very likely to be in competitive fights.

I do think Aldrich is solid defensively though. She’s technically a decent fighter, and her striking defense of 61 percent is suggestive of that. She’s never landed a knockdown nor been knocked down.

I’m perfectly willing to bet on Aldrich fighting competitively on the feet against much of this division, and winning rounds here and there. She’s still been a bit inconsistent. Even as recently as her last loss in 2024, she was outstruck 36 to 27 by Veronica Hardy. I mean, what the hell is that?

Aldrich is ultimately extremely capped due to her lack of volume and finishing equity, but she’s a fine striker who should be competitive on the numbers with most opponents.

I also think Aldrich has improved on the mat pretty substantially. She only lands 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes but her wrestling is decent, and I thought her takedowns looked solid against Andrea Lee last time out. She’s also a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and fine on the mat, though she lacks finishing equity there too.

Aldrich defends takedowns at 67 percent which is fine. She isn’t perfect but she’s decent defensively. She has a win over Gillian Robertson which speaks for itself. She defended five of six takedowns in that fight. She also defended all four of Erin Blanchfield’s takedowns in her next fight but was subbed with a standing choke anyways.

Aldrich’s grappling upside is super capped and not a huge part of her arsenal, but she’s not a major liability there either.

Jamey-Lyn Horth is the Canadian side of the matchup, and she’s earned a 4-2 record in the UFC with her most recent win coming by knockout against Tereza Bleda last December.

Horth fits into the same mold as Aldrich in my opinion. She is serviceable. I also think she’s improving.

There’s definitely a level of competition aspect here, but I thought Horth’s recent win over Demopoulos was her best. She legitimately looked solid at range there, and she was effective both with her boxing and with her kicking game. She landed 101 significant strikes in three rounds which was a massive improvement over her past decisions.

Horth is also a physical fighter, and capable in the clinch and on the mat. She has taken down four of her six opponents for an average of 1.17 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. She is also a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and I think her back taking game is pretty solid.

But Horth isn’t an elite ground specialist by any means. In fact, she’s also been taken down by four of her last six opponents, and defends takedowns at 79 percent. She can be held down a bit but she will try to threaten from her back with armbars or triangles, and she can use her physicality to scramble free.

I do think Horth’s physicality has a better chance to translate to power. She was hurting Demopoulos, and she TKOd Bleda quickly. She is not a real power threat and both of those girls are weak on the feet, but Horth has some pop in her strikes.

She’s still averaging 3.63 sig strikes per minute, and she landed 15, 29, 43 and 76 sig strikes in her previous decisions. She too lost an ugly, low volume decision to Veronica Hardy. How is Hardy beating these people?

She also went toe to toe with Ivana Petrovic, where the pair landed 29 and 25 strikes respectively, and each landed two takedowns. So that’s about the level Horth is. She’s mediocre.

I think Horth and Aldrich match up pretty well all things considered, and I expect this fight to be very competitive.

I think Aldrich is the better boxer of the two, and she’s far more experienced against a better level of competition. I trust her boxing more than I do Horth’s. But Aldrich very rarely separates, and I don’t really expect her to separate here either.

Over 15 minutes, Aldrich probably lands 50-70 significant strikes, and does little damage. She’s probably better at controlling range. Horth is probably throwing a little bit harder, and she’s probably getting the bigger pop from the Canadian crowd.

I think Aldrich is likely the better wrestler of the two, but her range of outcomes is probably 0 to 2 takedowns with a lean toward the lighter side. She just isn’t likely to get much done on the mat.

Horth probably has the same takedown range of 0 to 2, and I doubt she can get much done there either. Both girls are fine in the clinch, and exchanges should be competitive there.

I really don’t see a whole lot that separates these two, to be honest. This fight is very likely to go the distance, and I think it’s very likely to be competitive. I think it’s fair to lean slightly toward Aldrich due to her better experience level, but I don’t have much confidence and expect Horth to hang in with her the whole time.

—

On DraftKings, this fight likely won’t get much ownership.

Horth is priced up to 8.9k but has seen her odds fall substantially, which makes sense to me as I view the fight very competitively.

But with that drop, she’s now only -155 to win and +400 to win ITD, so she rates out very poorly. Despite some solid box scores, I think the public will look anywhere else, and I’m expecting Horth to fall closer to 10 percent than 20 percent.

In that, Horth is essentially just a contrarian target, and not one I particularly like.

Her recent wins aren’t super reflective of how I think she’ll score here. If she gets a finish, she can be optimal, but her ITD odds aren’t that strong. Aldrich tends to slow the pace down.

So I’m probably going to fade Horth with a more limited portfolio. There are plenty of ways to be different on this slate and betting on a Horth finish is not my favorite method of attack.

Aldrich at 7.3k is more viable and is in play as a win equity punt.

This is the type of slate that could see very few dog wins, and few big dog scores. So if Aldrich is the cheapest fighter to win, she has merit.

I don’t think she’ll get ownership, and she doesn’t really carry a ceiling. She’s +900 to win ITD which is bad, and I think she’ll land in the low teens of ownership.

But comparatively on this kind of slate, you have fighters like Phillips, Zhelezniakova, Yannis etc. who also have real ceiling questions in a win. They could all win by decision and score 65.

Because of that, I don’t think Aldrich is a drastically worse option than others, especially with her price and ownership factored in.

I’m not going to end up with a whole lot of Aldrich this week, and I don’t consider her a priority. If she’s trending closer to even money by fight night, she does have some merit as a cheap fighter who can win, and I don’t think she’s an awful low-end play under the premise of a slate that sees 0 or 1 underdog win.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Horth by Decision (Confidence=Low)

John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin

Fight Odds: Castaneda -125, Vologdin +105

Odds to end ITD: +100

DraftKings Salaries: Vologdin 8.2k, Castaneda 8k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight card continues with an absolute BANGER, as John Castaneda makes his return against UFC newcomer, Mark Vologdin. Let’s dive in.

Mark Vologdin is a fighter whom I’ve been waiting to see inside the Octagon. I’m not exaggerating when I say his last fight was my favorite Contender Series fight ever and it has to be in my top 5 fights of all-time. I highly recommend checking it out. 

Regardless of the decision, Vologdin was signed based off of toughness and output, and I truly think he is UFC ready, despite the loss on the Contender Series. Vologdin currently sports a 12-4-1 professional record and has spent his career in the Russian regional scene where he has fought a decent level of competition. He is only 25 years old and has picked up some solid experience so far, while also suffering defeat and showing where he needs to improve. 

The first thing you’ll notice about him is his size. He’s only 5’3 and a bit smaller for the division, but has plenty of physicality to go around. He trains primarily out of All-Stars MMA in Sweden, with the likes of Khamzat Chimaev, Guram Kutateladze and Felipe Lima, but looks to be a primary training partner of Bernardo Sopaj. With that group, you would expect his best attribute to be wrestling, but I would consider him a primary boxer. He makes reads as the fight goes on and has great combinations in his boxing. 

He also has power, with six wins by KO and an 83% finish rate so far. He has shown the ability to fight through adversity, shown great cardio and the ability to build as the fight goes on. I know Brett will make fun of me for this, but he gives me shades of the Walmart version of Petr Yan. He’s a smaller boxer with great extended combinations, with solid trips, ability to control from top position and proven cardio and durability. 

Of course he is nowhere near Yan, but if I had to compare his style that’s where I would put him. Now I have said my praises for Vologdin, but let’s come back to earth here. He was taken down and held down for almost four minutes on the Contender Series and also absorbed 223 strikes in that match. Yes, it was an epic fight but it’s also not great to see your fighter eat a million knees in the clinch. Sure, it shows good durability but he had a 34% striking defense in that bout, which you want to see improved before trusting him down the stretch. 

I do think he will be able to have success in boxing exchanges during his UFC career and I like his wrestling and ability to mix it up, but his smaller frame, willingness to eat damage and the fact I’ve seen him stuck on his back can limit his upside. However, at 25 years old, I do look forward to seeing how Vologdin will rate out in the UFC. He is a solid well-rounded wrestle/boxer with great striking optics, solid power, proven durability and ability to win minutes on the mat where needed, but will need to shore up his defense and his optics before we can trust him at the UFC level.

John Castaneda returns to the UFC this weekend after a year off and looks to return to the win column. He’s on a bit of a skid in his last two, but has fought good competition and is most recently coming off a split decision loss to Chris Gutierrez. “Sexi Mexi” now has a 21-8 record and is 4-4 since joining the UFC back in 2020. His losses all come to good competition, including Gutierrez, Daniel Marcos, Daniel Santos and Nathaniel Wood. 

He is a well-rounded fighter with the ability to strike in volume, as well as wrestle where needed. He is a fine minute winner but is also able to finish fights, with a 67% finish rate split between 7 KOs and 7 submissions. He is 7-6 overall to the decision, and someone who has been in a lot of close battles. He is able to strike well in volume, landing 111 significant strikes in his win over Kang and even landing 44 strikes in a single round in his win over Eddie Wineland. 

However, he is willing to take one to give one and can also be outpointed. He’s being hit more than he’s landing, averaging 4.94 strikes absorbed per minute to his 4.42 landed. The best aspect of his game though is how well-rounded he is. When he’s the better striker, he can strike well. When his opponents have a deficiency on the mat, he can wrestle; just like he did against Kang and Gafurov, where he landed 3 takedowns in each of those wins. He averages 1.68 TDs per 15 minutes at a 37% accuracy. He also has solid cardio and output and was able to pour it on Miles Johns in that victory. 

Overall, Castaneda is serviceable. He’s well-rounded and good in all areas. His cardio, versatility and minute winning can help him beat the lower level of the division quite easily. But against those that can match his output, he fights on close margins and doesn’t always have the best optics, being outlanded from range and not always doing much with his takedowns. He has shown also the ability to be hurt, as he was knocked down in both of his last two losses, and was KO’d by Santos back in 2022, so I’m not sure where the durability is at this point. 

At the end of the day, Castaneda is a tough out for anyone. He is well-rounded, has a solid pace and the ability to take this fight wherever he pleases, but I would like to be more sure about his durability and minute winning as well as would like to see him improve his defensive tendencies before trusting him at too high of a clip. 

I’m truly excited for this fight. That Dana White’s Contender Series fight between Vologdin and Luna Martinetti is honestly one of my favorites and I watched it a few times already this week. Now, yes, I do like Vologdin because of the durability and ability to fight through adversity he showed, but he did show some weaknesses. His takedown defense and ability to be hit in the clinch are real issues, and I do think Castaneda can win minutes on the mat here if needed. I’m just not in love with Castaneda’s ability to land damage and separate himself on the scorecards and his style is not comparable to Martinetti’s ability to utilize brute strength to land the takedowns. 

On the feet, I like the way Vologdin sets up his shots and I do expect him to have a durability edge. I can trust Vologdin to walk forward, push a pace and extend his combinations. That should help him win the optics and land more damage in my opinion, if he is able to keep this on the feet. 

Overall, both fighters fight on close margins. Vologdin’s size and ability to be stuck on his back can limit him and Castaneda certainly has a chance to win minutes on the mat while keeping it competitive on the feet. But I’m trusting Vologdin to continue to make improvements at 25 years old, fighting out of a good camp, and I think he can defend the takedowns and land more damage on the feet, building his volume and combinations as the fight goes on, maybe even finding a finish as Castaneda wears down. 

Give me the newcomer to have more damage and put his name on the map after a thrilling contender series bout, although it certainly won’t be an easy matchup. 

—

On DraftKings, I have interest in this fight for pacing purposes.

That DWCS fight was truly epic and I definitely encourage you to watch it. There are a couple of things I want to point out about Vologdin personally.

The first is that he’s too small for this division. Simply put, his size is an issue. The second is that I thought he did an incredible job in that DWCS loss, specifically in being able to throw effectively after being hurt and tired.

Very often you will see fighters hurt and tired, and trying to throw strikes, and it just looks like they have nothing on them. Vologdin was taking a ton of damage, and getting hurt, and throwing legit, technical and power shots. He’s simply undersized and was facing a volume monster, and has no real ability to defend himself because of it.

Thirdly, I wouldn’t use Yan as a comparison personally as Vologdin comes from a karate background and loves throwing spinning attacks. He’s a way better kicker than Yan and Yan tends to start super slow.

I don’t know exactly where Vologdin’s ceiling lies in the UFC but I think he can be in a bunch of fun fights, and he has potential to break opponents, given that he can likely take more damage than most on average. His size is an issue though.

Vologdin is priced at 8.2k here but is actually a slight underdog, so we’ll see where the betting line closes.

I don’t think he can be considered an elite play, but I do have interest in him. Primarily, I think there’s a chance Vologdin can win by knockout. I don’t know if it comes quickly as Castaneda is pretty decent, and he can move well on his feet, so he’ll be hard to chase down. But he’s slowed down before, he’s been dropped several times, and he’s been knocked out.

If Vologdin can pressure him, I could see the damage being too much and Vologdin scoring a mid-round TKO. I don’t think we’ll see as many exchanges here as on DWCS though, as Castaneda tends to evade better and doesn’t have the same volume upside as Martinetti.

Vologdin is ultimately only a secondary option, and not a fighter to be super confident in, but I do think he has a reasonable ceiling. A volume striking affair likely won’t be enough but he’s +265 to win ITD and has mild finishing equity. If the line moves against him this week and he’s low owned, I’d be happy to be overweight.

Castaneda is priced at 8k and is less interesting to me.

However, there’s still some merit to targeting him. We’ll see where the line falls but he could rate out as a value play. Additionally, we just saw Vologdin yield 129 DK points in a decision loss, so he can obviously allow offense.

Castaneda doesn’t have that high of a ceiling but I do think 100 strikes and three takedowns are possible, similar to what Castaneda did against Kang. In a decision there, he scored 95 DK points.

Castaneda is only +275 to win ITD and it’s hard to bet on him having a lot of finishing equity given what we just saw from Vologdin. But any fighter who takes that much damage could get hurt, so I wouldn’t rule it out.

There’s enough here for me to consider Castaneda a viable secondary target as well. I think I prefer Vologdin outright, but Castaneda has more wrestling equity, and so in a decision win, he could score 90-100 points and potentially compete for the optimal. 

I’d aim to come in around the field percentage most likely but I do think the winner here has a decent floor, just based on the pacing we should see.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vologdin by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis

Fight Odds: Siraj -256, Yannis +216

Odds to end ITD: -150

DraftKings Salaries: Siraj 9.1k, Yannis 7.1k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a low level matchup here between Canadian UFC debutant Jamie Siraj and John Yannis.

Jamie Siraj is a 31 year old out of Vancouver who relies on a grinding, clinch-heavy style to wear opponents down. He is 14-3 professionally with most of his finishes coming on the mat.

Siraj isn’t great but he is persistent in the grappling game he tries to implement, and it generally works against low tier competition. Training out of Tristar, Siraj’s game is built around forcing a high pace and turning fights into messy, high-effort grappling exchanges.

Siraj tries to bully people against the fence and find entries into his grappling. He’s an okay wrestler with an okay top-game and a knack for finding the back once an opponent starts to tire or scramble poorly. Again, I don’t think he is a good grappler and he struggles with physicality at times too, like against Erak. However, he is an okay wrestler and is tenacious and is decent at finding the back. He basically just clinches with an over under, tries to get the back, etc. Still, he isn’t good and I have seen him taken down and held down himself.

On the feet, Siraj is a straightforward pressure fighter who uses volume to mask his takedown attempts. He has demonstrated a little pop, shown by a few highlight-reel knockouts earlier in his career, but he’s most comfortable when he can grab a hold of someone and grapple. I also think he is hittable standing and a bit of a liability. I have seen him hurt a few times. I don’t think striking is a real path to victory for him in the UFC.

Overall, Siraj isn’t very good and is mostly a striking liability. However, he is a tenacious grappler, and I do think he has good cardio and he will persistently and tenaciously go for clinch takedowns and RNCs. He was losing to Erak for about 8 minutes but kept fighting hard and eventually got the back and RNC finish.

Siraj will be taking on John Yannis. Yannis is 9-4 professionally and is 31 years old. He has mostly fought in Fury FC, an okay regional promotion where he was featherweight champion. In his last win he knocked out former UFC fighter Nick Aguirre in the fourth round. He then fought his UFC debut against Austin Bashi and quickly got submitted.

I mostly just consider Yannis a competent striker. His last three wins have all come by knockout. He basically just looks to strike. I don’t totally love his volume or his pace but he is reasonably skilled as a striker and has some KO upside. I also think he has decent cardio. He also seems tough and durable and has never been knocked out in his career.

Overall though, Yannis doesn’t have much more than that. He doesn’t wrestle really and has never won by submission. So he doesn’t have a ton of other offensive options.

I also don’t really trust Yannis as a defensive grappler. He was taken down and submitted in his last regional loss against Gabriel Wanderley. He was also taken down and body triangled by Nick Aguirre multiple times even though he won that fight. Austin Bashi also dominated him and submitted him in his UFC debut and last matchup. 

As far as this matchup goes, this seems pretty binary. On the feet, I do think Yannis is a more physical and dangerous striker and I honestly could see him hurting Siraj or beating Siraj up. An upset here wouldn’t shock me here just because when this is standing, Yannis likely has an advantage.

Siraj is going to look to grapple here and Yannis does give up his back, and Siraj’s back takes are the best parts of his game. So Siraj tenaciously grappling, eventually getting the back, and getting a finish or taking a round with back control seems on the table here and is what I am leaning towards right now.

I still don’t think Siraj is very good. I know Yannis just got his back taken and submitted in his last fight but it was against Austin Bashi who is a five times better grappler than Siraj. So we may just be underrating Yannis’ defensive grappling right now. Yannis is somewhat physical and we have seen Siraj struggle with physicality when trying to grapple before. Furthermore, a lot of Siraj’s grappling success is from tiring opponents out and cardio doesn’t seem to be an issue for Yannis.

I am still going to go with Siraj because I like his tenacious grappling style more than the power reliant striking style of Yannis but I am a little skeptical here and don’t totally trust Siraj in this spot.

—

On DraftKings, this fight definitely has merit but damn it is low level.

It’s honestly difficult for me to get a full read on these guys. Yannis seems like a mediocre striker with weak grappling, but I don’t want to underestimate him in this matchup based on the Bashi loss alone, because Bashi is legit.

Siraj spends most of his time getting taken down and held down, and he’s not someone I’m excited by longterm. But he is gritty and performs well in extended fights.

Siraj is priced up to 9.1k here and I think is a viable option. You’re essentially hoping for grappling domination and a win ITD. Siraj is +115 to win ITD so that outcome is very realistic.

I’ve tried multiple times to fade grapplers in recent fights, and it’s burned me badly. I don’t think that means you have to play every grappler on every slate, but know that grappling is the easiest path to score well on DraftKings. My concern here is that Siraj gets outstruck and/or starts slowly, and mounting a comeback and late finish may not be enough.

But I also think there are outcomes where Siraj lands 2-3 takedowns and finishes with a RNC in the first or second round. Maybe it’s optimal, maybe it’s not. I’d want exposure to him in those instances regardless.

I have way more faith in Jasmine as a wrestler in this range. There’s finishing upside at the top of the board.

I think Siraj is a fine Tier 2 play. Zero safety in my opinion. Relatively dependent on a finish. But there are binary elements to this matchup against an opponent who was just submitted quickly, so I can at least envision a path for Siraj winning ITD and topping 100 points.

I’ll mix him in around the field percentage most likely, especially when I can’t pay up.

Yannis is priced at 7.1k and is arguably a decent leverage and/or contrarian target.

Again, it’s a potentially binary matchup. Yannis likely won’t be scoring many points per minute but maybe he can get stand-up exchanges here and hurt Siraj. Without a knockout, I still don’t see Yannis scoring well, but I suppose a knockout is in play.

Yannis is only +385 to win ITD but I think he’ll be one of the lowest owned fighters on the slate.

I don’t really view Yannis as a strong play and he won’t project well, but it’s possible the odds just aren’t correct in this matchup and he’s being underrated based on his UFC debut loss. If I’m on chalky constructions elsewhere and need salary relief, Yannis is an OK low-end target who could flash some upside at a low public ownership.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Siraj by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)