UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev (3/1/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev
Fight Odds: Kape -209, Almabayev +177
Odds to end ITD: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Kape 9k, Almabayev 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
We’ve had several potential matchups fall off and get scrambled, but fortunately, we’ll still get a quality main event on Saturday between top flyweight contenders Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev.
Kape is 20-7 professionally at age 31, earning 12 wins by TKO and five by submission. He had an extended run in RIZIN before signing with the UFC in 2020, and has since gone 5-3 in the promotion.
Kape is a kickboxer and a dangerous one at that. He’s fast and explosive, and carries some of the better power in this flyweight division. In his five UFC wins, Kape has earned six knockdowns which is quite impressive, finishing three of those fights by TKO.
Typically, Kape isn’t a high-volume striker, but at times he can be. We’ve seen some of that volume upside in more recent bouts against Silva and Dos Santos, where Kape landed 111 and 112 sig. strikes respectively. When he feels he has an advantage over his opponents, he’s willing to just tee off.
Against more competent fighters though, he’s gone toe to toe with opponents. Pantoja outlanded him 72 to 49 at distance, Nicolau lost a tight striking battle 58-50, and Mokaev actually outlanded him 27-20. Dos Santos actually landed 99 significant strikes too, despite absorbing 112.
So overall I’d consider Kape a decent volume fighter, capable of easily outworking inferior competition. Against quality competition, rounds can be more competitive in which case he’ll be more reliant on the damage factor to get his hand raised.
Defensively, Kape is still defending 58 percent of strikes in the UFC and he’s never been knocked out, which shows some strong durability. He’s not an easy guy to land hard shots on or damage, even if numbers are competitive, and optics are usually in his favor.
As a grappler, Kape’s primary goal is to keep the fight upright. He only lands 0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, and surprisingly, two of his three career takedowns in the UFC came against Pantoja in his debut.
Defensively is where he’s had some more issues, though I think he’s a respectable wrestler in totality. He’s defending takedowns at 77 percent in the UFC. He’s actually a black belt in jiu-jitsu so even off his back, he’s competent.
Still, defensive wrestling is where Kape has struggled at times and it’s been a factor in several of his pro losses. Most recently, Kape gave up three takedowns to Mokaev which played a minor role in the loss.
Kape also gave up two takedowns to Dvorak, and two to Nicolau, and neither of those fighters are strong wrestlers. He is not the best scrambler and ultimately can be taken down, and held down at times while he chooses to play guard. He’s not an extreme liability though.
That’s clearly where Asu Almabayev will be looking to take the fight though, as Almabayev specializes as a grappler and has had tremendous success grappling in the UFC thus far.
Almabayev is now 21-2 professionally at age 31, and he’s earned three wins by knockout and nine by submission.
He is a processed grappler, which is my favorite style to back, and I expect him to continue to have success in this division, though he’s now getting a step into the top tier which will pose some difficulty.
Almabayev is a bit small, but I think he’s a strong technical wrestler and grappler, and he has cardio to fight for a hard 15 minutes. That’s going to give him a strong floor per round, especially against any defensively questionable opponents.
Thus far, Almabayev has beaten Matheus Nicolau, Jose Johnson, Ode Osbourne and CJ Vergara, who are all mediocre opponents with the potential exception of Nicolau. He took down and controlled Osbourne before RNC’ing him in the second round, and then he took Vergara down nine times en route to a clear decision.
More recently, he took Jose Johnson down six times on 11 attempts and controlled him for 11.5 minutes en route to a decision. He did face some adversity in that fight as Johnson scrambled to dominant positions a couple of times, but Almabayev was able to escape and continue his grind.
And in his last fight, Almabayev won a clear decision over Nicolau in a pretty slow paced bout. He only attempted six takedowns, and only secured one of them. He still outstruck Nicolau 17-12 at distance and knocked him down late in the fight too.
His relentless wrestling attack is still the most impressive thing about his game to me. Getting takedowns, taking the back and locking in the RNC is probably the most preferred method of victory. It shows a strong process and is the most replicable type of finish.
And then shooting for 10+ takedowns over 15 minutes consistently, landing 6-9 of them, and continuing to press forward shows offensive production upside, as well as strong cardio.
His last fight against Nicolau makes me a bit nervous as he didn’t choose to wrestle early, and didn’t succeed on many attempts. Perhaps he’s already hitting the ceiling of the type of opponent whom he cannot control. He still showed some promise by winning the fight though.
As far as his striking, I have some concerns. He has been throwing a lot of spinning attacks both outside and inside the UFC, which I hate. They don’t land often, and it can put you in danger defensively.
He still has absorbed only 1.02 sig. strikes per minute, and went toe-to-toe with Vergara on the feet, so I think while fights play out upright, Almabayev can survive. But I don’t think he’ll clearly be winning and it will be a means to an end which is ultimately his grappling.
Eventually, my guess is we’ll see Almabayev hit a ceiling where he cannot easily control opponents, and his game might break down from there. I don’t think 22 significant strikes in three rounds will typically be enough to cut it, though I love that he still absorbed less. He does have one TKO loss on the regionals but that came against Tagir Ulanbekov in 2017, so it’s forgivable.
I definitely consider Manel Kape to be the most dangerous striker that Almabayev has faced, and that’s a concern from the start.
If this fight plays out on the feet, I have to favor Kape. He’s shown far more production upside, and he’s a slick, fast striker. He has knockout power, and Almabayev isn’t really a damaging one despite his most recent KD. I would give Almabayev very little win equity in a fight that purely played out on the feet, and he could lose dominantly.
With that said, Almabayev could make it close..
He could do so by simply limiting exchanges as he’s done in the past. He’s not going to brawl with Kape, so that’s a positive already. He doesn’t absorb many strikes and he won’t be easy to hit.
If Kape is too aggressive in trying to force exchanges, Almabayev will wrestle which benefits him anyway. So I think there’s a decent chance Kape fights cautiously because of this.
It’s the exact same thing that happened in the Mokaev fight. Kape was all hyped up to kill Mokaev but he thought he was going to wrestle, and ultimately just wasn’t able to get off any strikes. I think a similar style of fight could play out here against Almabayev, and although Kape probably still wins it, it would be a benefit to Almabayev overall.
Where Almabayev needs to truly succeed is on the mat, and I think he will go back to his wrestling ways here, although it may not come immediately. In fact, he may choose to strike for a bit again and just get Kape thinking about multiple options. Eventually he’ll shoot takedowns and that will dictate the fight.
This is a tough one because Almabayev is pretty solid. I definitely think he can land takedowns, and probably a few of them. Assuming he attempts 10+ takedowns over 25 minutes, Almabayev probably lands a few and probably converts that into minutes of top time.
He’s not a super dangerous finisher but he can take the back and threaten for RNCs. I do think Almabayev would be leading the grappling exchanges in general and he works enough in top position to take advantage of control time and win rounds.
Despite having great cardio, I do worry about Almabayev over five rounds. Because he’s not a great finisher, he’ll likely need to take Kape down in several rounds and hold him down for many minutes to win.
If he’s simply the better wrestler here, then he’ll have a good shot at it. The longer the fight goes though, Kape will be sweaty and if Almabayev isn’t in top shape, there’s a chance he could fall off and get dominated late.
Of these two fighters, I like Almabayev’s style more. He’s a high volume wrestler with good skills, and he’s very defensively sound on the feet. It’s a clear style that could lead to a win over Kape, who just lost to a similar opponent in Mokaev.
At the same time, this is a big step up for Almabayev, in a main event, against a more dangerous striker than he’s faced previously. I don’t think takedowns and control will come ultra easily, and judges will clearly weigh the damage factor heavily.
I just worry that even if Almabayev has success, if he doesn’t do a lot with it on the ground, he just won’t have the firepower to make it up on the feet. So favoring Kape overall is pretty fair.
But Almabayev is a skilled fighter and definitely capable of the upset in my opinion. This is a big test for him but one I think we could see him pass. I’m really debating picking Almabayev outright and I’d be a little surprised if he didn’t make some rounds competitive.
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On DraftKings, I have pretty severe concerns for Kape at 9k and similar to last week with Song, I don’t think he’s a stand out target.
The way in which Song vs. Cejudo ended was unlucky but the point I brought up in that matchup was that Song would have very limited wrestling equity, against a defensively sound opponent in a fight that was expected to go the distance. Song landed a fair number of strikes overall but was still on pace for a mid 80s score.
In this matchup, I just don’t know how Kape is really going to score points. I don’t think he has much wrestling equity and it would be fair to reason that he may not even land one single takedown in five rounds.
Obviously there is knockout potential, but less potential against an opponent who limits engagements, which is the biggest concern I have. Even if Almabayev somehow gasses out late in the fight and gets beaten up, I’d be pretty surprised if Kape could land lots of strikes on him while he was fresh.
Almabayev’s stats are obviously skewed a little bit because he’s spent so much time on top but at distance, he’s just not going to force engagements. He’s going to spin and kick and try to stay out of trouble. I think Kape can land some strikes but I highly doubt he’ll be able to rack up any significant volume.
At 9k, that’s a major concern. Even 140 sig. strikes only equates to a mid 80s score and I think there’s a really strong chance Kape lands less than 100 here. If Almabayev has any wrestling success at all, that would just cut into the upside of Kape even more.
So despite this main event status, Kape might truly be early, or mid-round KO or bust. The best case scenario for him (outside of a literal first-minute KO) is that he can stuff several takedowns in round 1/2, land some hard shots that hurt Almabayev, swarm on him and get a stoppage.
Kape is +165 to win ITD which is a fine metric, but it’s not indicative of a sure thing. The fight is -245 to go Over 3.5 rounds and -140 to go the full five rounds.
I think Kape is in play, but I don’t love him as a target in this matchup and I think he has severe downside risk. While he may not be ultra popular and see 50+ percent ownership, I think he’ll see mid 30s at least if not mid 40s due to the questions in this range.
I would probably aim to be underweight in that case, hoping he doesn’t hit a quick KO win condition. But main event status at least gives him a viable floor in a win, and he does have some fight-ending power to give up a hope at a ceiling performance.
Almabayev is a strong underdog target at 7.2k and I expect he will be quite popular.
He’s coming off wins of 70, 105, 118 and 105 which is a pretty strong start to his UFC career. While the 70 score isn’t ideal, that came in three rounds in a fight where Almabayev did not need to wrestle.
I cannot imagine Almabayev winning this fight without a finish, or several takedowns and many minutes of control. I think the more likely scenario is he absolutely smashes with takedowns in a win, and easily clears 100 points. He’s only +500 to win ITD but I don’t care too much about that. So at 7.2k, I’m definitely willing to target him.
The popularity does concern me though as we just saw Cejudo push 40 percent in a similar fight. I think Almabayev clearly has more win equity than Cejudo though, and a higher wrestling ceiling.
There aren’t enough obvious underdogs in this range to pull ownership away so I’m likely going to project Almabayev as the chalk. In that case, it wouldn’t be a bad strategy to consider an underweight approach to him as well, hoping he loses the fight and looking to pivot to lower owned dogs nearby.
Still, Almabayev at 7.2k will be a strong secondary target at worst, in a five round fight that’s projected to last into the fifth round. He has skills and plenty of wrestling equity to reach the optimal lineup in a win.
I’ll have my fair share of Almabayev and prefer him as a DK target straight up over Kape. He’ll be the clear cash game target of the two as well for his savings.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almabayev by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez
Fight Odds: Marquez -121, Brundage +105
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Marquez 8.5k, Brundage 7.7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have some serious questions about this matchup between Cody Brundage and Julian Marquez. First and foremost, why is this the co-main event? Furthermore, how is this even on the main card? Lastly, how in the fuck is Cody Brundage even in the UFC?
Cody Brundage is an absolute embarrassment to me. Against Jacob Malkoun, Brundage was getting dominated and basically had zero chance to win. He was on the mat and a soft and accidental punch from Malkoun hit the back of Brundage’s head. The dumbest ref in the UFC Mark Smith stopped the fight which gave Brundage an opportunity to act hurt and earn a DQ win, which Brundage shamelessly took. Brundage was clearly not hurt and it was obvious to anyone watching that Brundage gamed the system.
Fast forward to Brundage’s last fight against Alhassan. Brundage was getting beat up on the feet, and dropped for a takedown where he took a few elbows to the back of the head. Again, Brundage clearly was acting and acting more hurt than he was in an attempt to win by DQ. Brundage chose not to continue. It was really Deja vu.
Luckily, the referee ruled it a no contest so Brundage wasn’t gift wrapped another win. So yeah, I can’t stand this guy, but I will objectively break him down.
I mostly consider Brundage a “moments” fighter. His only three “real” wins in the UFC came by quick knockout (twice) and guillotine (once) which really seem like the main paths to victory for him at this level.
Brundage comes from a wrestling background, but he isn’t very good as a wrestler offensively or defensively. He defends takedowns at 68 percent but his TDD isn’t great and his get ups aren’t either. He will also just pull guillotines and end up on his back if his TDD is even holding up.
Brundage is also not a great striker. He lands 1.62 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.63 in return. He has some power but is just not very good.
I do respect the explosive movements of Brundage though. He is semi dangerous with some strikes and can explode into some guillotine and slam takedown attempts. I generally think he needs to win by finish to win at this level though.
Brundage will be taking on the aforementioned Julian Marquez. Although not very skilled, Marquez is tough and powerful. He is very gritty and tries EXTREMELY hard. He makes his fights ugly on the inside and tries to win by just being tougher and more physical than his opponents.
Marquez isn’t a skilled striker but he is powerful and can make it dirty. He lands 4.85 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.06 in return. I still don’t think he is particularly great at distance but he can crack a bit and put up some offense.
Marquez isn’t a great grappler. In fact, he has never landed a takedown in the UFC. He isn’t a guy that I expect to go out there and land takedowns and control his opponents on the mat. However, he has some decent power chokes and three of his four wins in the UFC have actually come by submission.
Generally, he panics his opponents with his toughness and physicality and they shoot in after getting hurt or panicked / gassed, and then he jumps on a choke. His wins generally come from the “club and sub” variety of submissions where his opponent is hurt already via strikes, or gassed and panicked.
Marquez only defends takedowns at 53 percent, which is not great, but he is very physically strong and scrambles up decently. I don’t expect him to get controlled by the lower tier fighters of this division. However, his fight with Pitolo was concerning. Pitolo landed five takedowns and obtained nine minutes of control. It was taxing for Pitolo though as Marquez makes grapplers work. It still wasn’t a great showing by Marquez though.
I am concerned about the durability of Marquez now though. I used to consider it a strength of his but he has been knocked out in his last three matchups. That just makes me nervous when he is going against a moments fighter like Brundage.
I honestly do think Brundage can knock Marquez out. Marquez is hittable and has just been getting bodied lately. So if Brundage walks out there and knocks Marquez dead early, it wouldn’t surprise me at all.
However, I really do think Marquez is tougher than Brundage. I think both of these fighters could knock the other out. However, I feel like if this fight gets extended, I think Marquez will probably just end up winning because he won’t quit. If Brundage puts Marquez through adversity, I think Marquez will fight through it unless he gets put unconscious. On the other hand, I think if Marquez puts Brundage through adversity, Brundage will just quit or attempt to win by DQ.
So I am going to go with Marquez here as I feel like I like his toughness and grittiness just a bit more. I feel like if the fight gets extended, Marquez will probably put Brundage through adversity and get the win. This is a 1-800 gambler fight though and a tough one to lay money on.
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On DraftKings, unfortunately, I think this fight is a semi-priority as I do expect it to end inside the distance.
What also sucks is that Brundage is now the clear value side at 7.7k, and he may end up being chalk on this slate. Puke.
He is an obvious play though. He tends to come out swinging big, and I think the majority of his win equity is tied into moments, which probably would come in the form of an early KO. Marquez has been KOd a few times in a row now and it feels pretty possible Brundage can hurt him as well.
Brundage is +165 to win ITD and at +105 to win outright, he’ll likely be one of the more popular underdogs on the slate. I don’t think you have to be heavy here, but it makes sense to have mild-moderate exposure given how well he rates.
He is still very boom or bust. He won’t be producing many points per minute, and although he can wrestle, I don’t think he will earn much control. I wouldn’t want to be rostering Brundage in an extended fight.
So, ultimately, Brundage isn’t someone you should feel safe with, despite him rating out as a strong upside play. I still will have mild-moderate exposure by default, for the upside and because Marquez kind of sucks too, but I don’t really plan on taking a stand here against the field.
Marquez at 8.5k should be the leverage side. He may not be dramatic leverage but the lower owned he projects to be in comparison to Brundage, the more I’d be excited to roster him.
He is now -121 to win but +100 to win ITD, so his finishing metrics are still strong. However, he’s lost three in a row badly, so I don’t think the field will feel comfortable playing him.
I would say there’s also more risk with Marquez as he’s the type who can thrive by getting beat up and letting his opponents tire. Anthony Smith syndrome. But he probably won’t be wrestling and he probably won’t be producing a lot of points.
Like Brundage, an extended fight would make me nervous to be holding Marquez, even though that style of fight favors him, I just don’t know if he’ll be producing many points without the finish.
The upside comes into play because Brundage can quit at any moment. While I think he’ll be fine early, he may just quit in round one at signs of adversity. Or round two or round three. That’s why Marquez has a strong ITD line overall.
As he should be the leverage side, Marquez makes sense in tournaments. It would be fine to prioritize him outright over Brundage too.
I worry about the boom or bust elements of the matchup and neither fighter is consistent or trustworthy, but I do think Marquez likely wins ITD if he wins at all. There’s some reasonable upside for a first or second round SUB, and I don’t mind mild-moderate exposure here as well.
I just don’t think I’ll be taking any major stands against the field given how crazy high variance this matchup is and how poor both fighters are. Just get a bunch of exposure for the ITD potential and find the edges elsewhere on the slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Marquez by Guillotine, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics
Fight Odds: Ribovics -260, Haqparast +215
Odds to end ITD: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Ribovics 9.1k, Haqparast 7.1k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential banger here as exciting prospect Esteban Ribovics will slug it out with UFC veteran Nasrat Haqparast.
I like Ribovics a bit. He is a 28-year old Argentinian fighter. Ribovics is 14-1 professionally and is now 3-1 in the UFC. He is coming off a high-profile split decision win against Daniel Zellhuber at the Sphere. That was an awesome back and forth striking fight. Check it out if you haven’t seen it.
On the regionals, Ribovics basically finished everyone that he fought early as his competition was terrible and outmatched. Ribovics generally knocked them out, but he does have some submissions in his career as well.
I mostly consider Ribovics a striker. He is aggressive and has good output and pace. He has good hooks, and I consider him a solid striker, capable of winning striking fights in the UFC. I like his cardio and he has some sneaky power as well. He will thrive when he can just outpace his opponents.
I don’t consider Ribovics a great offensive grappler. Again, he has some submissions on the regional scene, but it was against awful fighters. I don’t think he will outwrestle any average UFC level competition.
Ribovics also has defensive grappling issues. In his one UFC loss against Loik Radzhabov, he was taken down 11 times and controlled for 7:39. In his UFC win against Kamuela Kirk, he was taken down three times and controlled for 6:20. He was put in really bad positions in those fights as well and was mounted, body triangled, etc. That just isn’t a good sign and good grapplers will surely expose Ribovics.
Ribovics did at least display toughness in those fights. He was put in bad spots but defended submissions and worked up at times, and fought through it. He has never been finished in his UFC career and generally seems like a tough kid.
Overall though, Ribovics profiles as a very solid action striker who is definitely UFC level. Good grapplers will surely have success against him, but he can perform well if he gets fights that take place on the feet.
Ribovics will be taking on Nasrat Haqparast. Nasrat has not met my expectations as I once considered him a solid prospect. However, I still consider him a decent fighter and he is definitely UFC level.
Nasrat is mostly a boxer. He lands 6.15 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.65 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 62 percent. Standing out of the southpaw stance, Nasrat has fast hands and a really good straight left. He also has moderate power and has several knockdowns spread out in his UFC career. He recently knocked out Jamie Mullarkey which was a good performance.
Nasrat has had some beautiful striking performances honestly. He has absolutely destroyed a couple of decent fighters on the feet in Marc Diakiese and Rafa Garcia. However, he has just failed to win fights when he has gotten steps up in competition. Hooker and Green beat him handily and Dober knocked him out.
Nasrat is on a four fight winning streak now but it has come against older fighters and bad competition in John Makdessi, Landon Quinones, Jamie Mullarkey, and Jared Gordon. Three of those fights were very competitive. I actually thought Gordon deserved the decision against Nasrat.
Still though, I consider Nasrat an average striker at this weight class, and he will definitely beat up fringe UFC talent on the feet.
Nasrat also defends takedowns at 84 percent. I consider his defensive grappling and scrambling competent. He only lands 0.28 takedowns per 15 minutes so offensive wrestling isn’t a huge path to victory for him, but I do think he could land some takedowns against below-average grapplers.
As far as this matchup goes, I could maybe see Nasrat landing a takedown or something, but he doesn’t land takedowns often or even choose to wrestle. Ribovics also rarely wrestles. So my guess is these guys will strike so I am going to basically just break down the striking.
On the feet, I tend to just lean Ribovics moderately. I think Ribovics is more youthful and I think he hits a little harder. I also think Ribovics just has a high floor here. Nasrat rarely runs away on the strike count against average strikers and Ribovics is a step up as a striker. Gordon, Makdessi, and Quinones all stayed very close with Nasrat numerically. So a loss for Ribovics would probably just be a very competitive striking affair.
On the other hand, I could see Ribovics running away with this. He has more power and is more likely to win by knockout or hurt Nasrat. I also just can’t get Bobby Green outlanding Nasrat 188-76 out of my head. Hooker also crushed him. We have seen good strikers just pull away against Nasrat, and I honestly could see that happening here.
So overall, I just am going to go with Ribovics because he has an overall higher ceiling in this matchup. I think he will likely just be a bit better than Nasrat, land more strikes, and land with more power.
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On DraftKings, Ribovics is priced up to 9.1k which makes him tricky to prioritize given the matchup.
While Ribovics can land in volume, I’m far from certain that volume alone will be enough. Ribovics already has UFC performances where he landed 156 and 112 sig. strikes, which is a lot, and both of those bouts only scored him 92 DK points. At 9.1k, I don’t think 92 points is enough.
In general, Ribovics isn’t going to have wrestling equity and I wouldn’t expect much or any from him here. And while he does have KO upside, Haqparast is really tough. Haqparast is quick, and he wasn’t knocked down by Hooker or Green. He’s been knocked down once in 13 UFC fights and his KD ratio is actually 7:1 in the promotion.
So it makes sense that the fight is expected to extend, with the Over 2.5 rounds prop sitting at -185. Ribovics has a mediocre ITD line of +210 which suggests he’s not extremely likely to win by KO.
The upside is that IF Ribovics can win by TKO, there will be a lot of volume that comes along with it. So in a finish, Ribovics has a super high ceiling that would absolutely allow him to contend for the optimal. I just wouldn’t bet on him winning by KO at a very high rate.
In this top range, Ribovics can still be considered but he’s more of a secondary target for me. I really like the pacing in this matchup, but Haqparast is still defending strikes at 62 percent and I don’t think knocking him out is a simple task. I’m willing to consider Ribovics but he won’t be a priority for me.
Haqparast at 7.1k is a reasonable target for cheap.
Yes, he might be outgunned here but I would argue that Haqparast is a big step up in competition for Ribovics too. Haqparast is the best boxer he will have faced and the most experienced one too.
Plus, Haqparast can land in high volume himself. In his last three fights, Haqparast has totals of 146 and 171 sig. strikes. Volume can easily lead to competitive rounds. He also likely has the wrestling advantage too.
I think Haqparast can win this fight, even if the betting odds are fair, there’s a reasonable path to a competitive decision win for him. And with the fight expected to go 15 minutes, he carries a decent floor against an opponent who just yielded 121 sig. strikes too.
I don’t think Haqparast is a stand out play for upside and his ITD line is only +475, but he seems to have a reasonable floor, reasonable talent, with a reasonable path to victory. I consider him a fine secondary target at this price tag and won’t mind mixing in some exposure when I need the savings.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ribovics by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Austen Lane vs. Mario Pinto
Fight Odds: Pinto -550, Lane +403
Odds to end ITD: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Pinto 9.3k, Lane 6.9k
Weight Class: HW
Coming off a contract winning performance on the Contender Series, Mario Pinto will make his UFC debut Saturday against Austen Lane.
Pinto is 9-0 professionally at age 26, and he’s earned five wins by knockout and three by decision. He is from Portugal but fights out of London, England.
Pinto didn’t fight a lot of great opponents on the regional scene, but did fight in many extended affairs. He’s gone the distance three times including one five-round fight, and his cardio looks like one of his stronger attributes.
Pinto is primarily a striker. He fights at a cautious pace and doesn’t throw a ton of volume. He’s happy to stand back, throw a jab, some kicks, and win rounds.
He does carry power as this is the HW division, but Pinto isn’t a stand out in that regard. He’s not throwing heavy hammers and he’s not necessarily gunning for a KO. He did secure a quick KO on the Contender Series, but it came from a check hook and he wasn’t really loading up on the strike.
In that sense, I have mixed feelings about Pinto. I like his base set of skills for winning rounds. He seems reasonably technical, and defensively sound. I do wish he had a bit more power and physicality because I’m not sure he easily puts opponents away in the UFC, nor am I sure he will run away with rounds without the damage aspect.
I haven’t seen a ton of his grappling game but he doesn’t usually try to wrestle. He did take down and submit some combat sambo champion in the beginning of his pro career, but otherwise I haven’t seen many offensively oriented grappling exchanges.
A fair few opponents have tried to take Pinto down though, with little success. When he’s been taken down, he pops right back up. I’m pretty hopeful for his defense in that regard and I don’t think he’ll be easy to control.
His first level takedown defense seems fine. I’d guess he can be taken down and that it might be a weak point overall, but I’m not super worried about it as a major liability. Only a few fighters at HW can wrestle at all.
Pinto will be taking on Austen Lane this weekend, who’s coming off a hilarious upset over Robelis Despaigne that got Despaigne kicked from the organization.
Lane is now 13-5 as a pro and 1-2 in the UFC. Lane is an ex-football player and a very mediocre MMA fighter, and I don’t expect his success to continue.
He knows how to strike at a base level and this is HW, but he’s not really a knockout artist or volume threat. He also has basic levels of wrestling, which is how he’s had some recent success.
The UFC has just been giving Lane all its prospects, hoping they’ll smash him. He got Greg Hardy way back in the day on the Contender Series, and Hardy knocked him out to earn his contract.
In the UFC, he got Justin Tafa twice, and lost by KO. Then he got kickboxing prospect Jhonata Diniz, who Lane actually took down in the first round and grinded out the round.
By round two he was tired. He failed on a couple of early takedown attempts and that was it. Diniz pressed a little bit, hurt him and knocked him out.
Against Despaigne, a former Olympian taekwondo striker, Lane had to wrestle. He landed an early takedown and laid on top of Despaigne to take the round. Despaigne defended some shots in round two and outstruck Lane, but couldn’t defend the takedown again in round three and was held down for the decision loss.
In total, it was a fine performance from Lane. He got the job done. He ultimately just attempted a handful of takedowns and laid on top of Despaigne to win two close rounds though, as there was very little damage done with his nine minutes of control.
Lane isn’t very good. The UFC is giving him Pinto now in hopes Pinto can crush him.
I don’t think highly enough of Pinto to the point I am super confident he’ll make it happen. Especially as he’s gone the distance many times on the regional scene, I could easily see Pinto jabbing, extending the fight and winning a decision.
He will have KO equity though. Lane has been knocked out early in each of his last three losses. My assumption is Lane will try to wrestle again here, and if he can’t get takedowns, he might get hurt.
Again, he did go a full round against Despaigne on the feet, and survived. We could see a boring round or two with Pinto edging out Lane, but ultimately Pinto’s tools are better and there’s KD upside as well.
I don’t think Lane will have success wrestling, but that’s probably his path. He attempted eight takedowns against Despaigne, which is solid. If he attempts 10 here, he could get a couple of takedowns.
Despaigne just sucks and couldn’t get back up, and I think Pinto will get up if he needs to. Lane will need to do more on top to clearly win rounds, and I don’t think he’s capable of it.
So I’m going to pick Pinto to win here with moderate confidence. Lane just isn’t dangerous anywhere so Lane has to land some big, random shot to change the course of the fight, or he’ll need to wrestle. Pinto should be good enough to keep the fight upright and land strikes but I’m not as certain he puts Lane away quickly.
—
On DraftKings, Pinto is fairly expensive at 9.3k and I think he fits into the early KO or bust category.
As much as I’d like to say yeah, this is an easy one, I just don’t see a reason to be that confident. Pinto will rate out extremely well with a -190 ITD line, but he’s not a high volume striker and he’s not power oriented. He is more than happy to go the distance.
Perhaps he pushes the pace a little more in his debut. Even if he doesn’t, he could still catch Lane. I’m going to pick Pinto to win by knockout. But in his last five fights, Pinto has three decisions, one 1st round KO and one 3rd round KO. He’s not a proven early finisher in my mind.
My guess is that Pinto will draw a fair amount of attention even at this price, as he’s making his debut in a winnable matchup, with great metrics. He’d be fine to prioritize and I definitely want exposure.
I still view him as a potential bust in an extended matchup, and his profile suggests he’s willing and capable to fight in extended fights, so being cautious or pivoting at times makes sense to me.
Lane at 6.9k doesn’t interest me a whole lot. Sure, he could win. It’s low-level HW. He can wrestle.
I just don’t have any faith in Lane’s skills and I don’t think this is a great matchup for him to excel. He’s +400 to win ITD. I doubt he’ll be popular.
If you need to punt, Lane could be in consideration for leverage but I just don’t love his offensive production and even with wrestling domination last time, Lane only scored 81 DK points. Unless he’s getting a KO, I don’t see a clear path to the optimal and I’d rather play several other underdogs than Lane even in the bottom range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pinto by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis
Fight Odds: Gomis -201, Amil +170
Odds to end ITD: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Gomis 8.8k, Amil 7.4k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
William Gomis bypassed the Contender Series back in 2022 as the UFC was looking to fill local French talent for their Paris card. He’s been a tough out and has won all four of his UFC fights, including three of which he was the underdog – he’s 14-2 as a pro. Hyder Amil’s a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season who’s made good on his first two UFC appearances, including his most recent win which was the underdog as well – he’s 10-0 as a pro.
The striking component:
Gomis comes from a sanda/kickboxing background and is one of the main training partners of Salahdine Parnasse, who’s one of the better featherweights in Europe right now that’s not in the UFC (ironically, Parnasse handed Gomis his 1st pro loss back in 2016).
He’s a tricky, lanky southpaw with some really quick hands and snappy kicks to all three levels – he has KOs via kicks and knees as well but hasn’t been a historic power puncher despite his speed.
He works in a more methodical, mobile, lower rate as he’s not really pacing guys and likes to pick and choose his shots – he’s more of a burst/counter striker. But he’s shown he can fight effectively in all three ranges.
Despite his uber low volume style, what I like about Gomis is that he’s dictating the striking on his terms. He’s got solid distance management, making it difficult for opponents to get extended combinations off on him – or really anything for that matter.
In the scenarios he does get cut off, he can eat a flush shot but what I also like is that he’ll immediately just initiate clinching sequences, do some work there, implement his grappling or break – rinse and repeat.
We did see him get buckled in his debut against Errens though.
My main takeaway in watching him is that he works in a style that’s going to frustrate a lot of fighters. Despite not being an output machine, he is marginally winning the minutes in his fights. For context, he’s held his opponents to the following strike counts in his last four bouts: 20, 15, 28 and 29. Even Brito who’s a stud couldn’t do anything meaningful to him striking wise.
Overall, I largely like what I’ve seen from Gomis so far from a technical perspective and feel he can have continued striking success at the UFC level. However, in exclusive distance affairs, he does have a style that’s going to lead to closer margins depending on the matchup.
I’m unsure of Amil’s official background but he’s served as more of a technical brawler so far in his pro career.
He’s a southpaw that’ll throw the occasional sneaky high kick and clinch knee but is primarily boxing based where he likes to march forward and keep hands on his opponents. He’s gotten tired in a handful of outings but pushes through fatigue well and can break guys down as the party with just more left in the tank.
He’s shown bigger power components as well with six of his 10 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
In his debut, he put Fernie Garcia away in the 2nd round. Garcia isn’t a great talent but has always been known for his toughness and Amil handed him his first finish loss. He also went to war in his sophomore outing with Lee where both guys just threw down in the pocket and Amil won the war, finishing him in a minute.
Given his more brooding/brawling nature, his defense isn’t always a priority where he’s particularly susceptible walking into counter shots when he doesn’t have his guard high, which has busted him up in a few spots.
In his defense, the guy’s shown solid hardware and has been able to take everything coming back at him to date.
Overall, Amil’s a fun guy to watch and kind of a throwback fighter that I’d anticipate standing success for at the UFC level. But he’ll likely struggle with longer fighters who have the footwork and defense to keep him at bay.
How it plays out: Off the top, Gomis will realize a size advantage here in 3” of both height and reach. It’s another weird dynamic as you have two completely opposite striking styles, with Gomis being the technical neutralizer versus Amil being the brooding brawler. But as I referenced in the paragraph above, Gomis style is not good for Amil and quite frankly, we’ve seen Gomis now beat two guys with similar frames and styles to Amil in Marshall and Brito. People were saying Brito was going to kill Gomis and Brito only landed nine head strikes. Essentially, I just view Amil as a worse version of Brito with lesser cage cutting and ringcraft. Amil does hit hard so he could catch him but if doesn’t, he’s going to get outlanded and be swinging at air the majority of the time.
The wrestling/grappling component:
To complement his striking, Gomis has shown good entries to TDs with trips and reactionary doubles.
There still isn’t enough tape on him for me to classify him as a “good” wrestler but he is a competent one.
On the ground, he’s shown to be strong from top positions in terms of control and can open up with ground and pound, having multiple positional TKOs on his record. He has one submission win, but it was a fight I wasn’t able to find so I still don’t know what to make of him as a submission grappler – he did threaten Ghemmouri with some viable front chokes though.
I’ve seen him get taken down once regionally but he actually showed pretty good 1st level TDD and it was the chaining of the 2nd to 3rd levels which eventually got him taken down. But he didn’t hang out there long, was able to create space and work up.
He did find himself briefly on bottom against Errens but was able to reverse the position off a judo throw – he did get caught in a triangle towards the end of the fight but was able to work out of the position.
However, despite shutting Marshall out for the large majority of their fight, he did give up two TDs late and got threatened with some viable sub attempts, dropping him that final round.
Most recently, Brito got the better of the overall ground exchanges, going 3/6 on TDs while racking up nearly seven minutes of control – however, Brito got controlled himself in the 1st off a reversal and lost that round, and then didn’t get enough top time in round three to sway the judges – Gomis wins a split. That fight could have very realistically gone to Brito though and probably would have in most scenarios if they weren’t fighting in Paris.
He has a submission loss via heel hook but that dates back to 2016 in a fight I wasn’t able to view. Despite being stuck in sub attempts in multiple fights now, Gomis has shown the ability to defend.
Overall, despite being a base striker, he has shown some offensive floor upside and generally good TDD but the 3rd rounds in his first two UFC fights and 2/3 versus Brito are a bit concerning.
The ground has been a little all over the board for Amil so far in his pro career.
He’s not a fighter you can anticipate to shoot many TDs but he’s mixed in some reactionary shots here and there.
Primarily how he’s getting to top positions is either with damaging his opponents, being able to stuff entry shots or winning in the scrambles.
He has one pro win via submission, but he hasn’t prioritized the submission much in recent years and is more so looking to land GNP.
Defensively, he’s struggled with some reactionary shots himself and chunks of the attritional wrestling that came from Sonmez back on the Contender Series.
However, he stuffed 18 of 23 TDAs in what was a taxing affair and despite losing early, he was ultimately able to nullify effective offense or positions from Sonmez to edge out that decision.
He has given his back though on more than one occasion and we did see Gibson take it in his last LFA fight. But it does appear that Amil has capable submission defense as he showed good hand fighting abilities not only in that spot but others as well in dealing with front chokes.
Overall, I have some ground concerns for Amil when fighting stronger floor players at the UFC level. But three of his last five wins have come against base ground fighters where he’s shown he’s definitely game in that realm as well.
How it plays out: As noted, we’ve seen some concerning ground things with Gomis in the UFC now despite stuffing at 70% — it’s ultimately how he’s lost the rounds he has. However, I don’t think Amil’s a very good offensive wrestler and would consider both Marshall and Brito better in that category, specifically from a control perspective. Amil prioritizes so much GNP that in the scenario he lands TDs, I think Gomis will work up. It’s actually a spot where Gomis has more wrestling upside in my opinion. Although I don’t know if it would be smart for Gomis to take a super heavy wrestling approach against Amil just because we’ve seen him gas guys out that way. But Gomis can accrue minutes here if he wants.
This is a weird booking not only stylistically but in the general matchmaking because Amil is a pretty clear step down from Brito – controversial decision or not. But as noted, I think Amil is just a worse version of Brito and Brito HAD to resort to grappling to try to win that fight. I just don’t think Amil has that same option as Brito is a WAY better ground fighter than Amil. So, despite Gomis fighting within the margins in his fights, I kind of struggle to see Amil winning at much of rate unless he knocks Gomis out or produces big moments in two rounds which is possible, but not crazy high percentage when Gomis isn’t going to stand in front of him and just doesn’t eat strikes. I think Gomis just picks at him and mixes in a couple TDs in route to another decision victory.
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On DraftKings, this is an interesting fight to dissect.
I actually disagree with Luke a little bit here. I don’t really think Amil is a good comparison to Brito though I understand it in the sense that Amil is aggressive and likes to brawl, and Gomis will definitely have the technical advantages. And it’s very possible that the fight plays out in exactly the manner Luke expects.
My disagreement is more in that I don’t think Brito is all that great. He’s pretty reliant on early damage, and he’s never been a high volume fighter. Brito is averaging 3 strikes per minute in an eight fight sample and in his decisions, Brito has landed 29, 40 and 44 significant strikes.
Amil just profiles as a much higher paced fighter, and I would consider him much less dependent on an early KO. In fact I think Amil is better suited to accumulate damage and break opponents down the stretch.
He still might just get picked apart at range here, but he’s going to implement more pacing than Brito will. Brito was forced to wrestle because he lacks the skills necessary to strike with any pacing, and I don’t exactly see that being the case with Amil.
The other part of this is that Gomis just doesn’t really produce any offense. Yes he beat Brito and I was thrilled at that upset but he still landed 43 strikes and got outwrestled. He probably should have lost. He’s also landed 52, 27 and 32 significant strikes in his other decisions.
For context, Amil just landed 42 strikes in one minute and five seconds before finishing off Lee.
My issue with Gomis is that his base offense is just SO limited. Yes he can and may very well pick you apart at distance and play the role of a neutralizer, but his win equity has to be capped pretty severely as he’s just never shown the ability to land even 20 strikes in a single round. And his wrestling is mediocre.
Back to DraftKings analysis – I think this one is pretty tough and you could look at it a couple of ways. Either Gomis will implement his style which will severely limit both fighters, and basically kill off the fantasy upside of the matchup. Or Amil will implement his style, which not only gives him a strong floor/ceiling but also Gomis.
Gomis is priced at 8.8k and that’s far too expensive for his typical output. He’s scored 64, 69, 42 and 80 points in his four UFC wins. He’s only +400 to win ITD here so he rates out horribly. I think it’s worth considering fading him outright based on this.
However, if in theory Amil needs to push a pace, fight aggressively and try to exchange the pocket where he will want to brawl, it’s going to give Gomis opportunities. If Gomis is forced into that fight and he wins it, he’ll probably have to do some damage, or have wrestling success. Maybe he could take the back and find a submission.
It would be a risk but I think if Gomis projects to be low owned, he’d be a sneaky contrarian target for this reason. My gut still says he just cannot produce a lot of offense and therefore isn’t a strong play, but I also am pretty confident Amil will force him to work, and Amil could get hurt or outwrestled in the process. It at least gives Gomis a higher ceiling than what’s on paper and what we’ve seen in the past. I won’t play a lot of Gomis but I don’t mind some contrarian shares in case this turns into a brawl.
Amil at 7.4k could be popular. He’s now coming off back-to-back finishes which we capitalized, thankfully, and he scored 132 and 107.
I do think those scores are somewhat predictive too. I wrote up Amil as being aggressive to a fault before entering the UFC, and he’s largely proven that correct. I think he will continue to push a pace, forego defense, and break opponents in wins.
However it’s also very fair to believe, especially given the matchup, that he won’t have success doing so here. He may not wrestle, and he may not be able to cut Gomis off and land anything. He might just lose a boring fight, or a semi-boring fight.
I do worry a lot that upside is completely capped too. Even if he wins, I think there’s a reasonable chance it’s still a “Gomis style” of fight where the strike counts are low on both sides, but Amil has a bit better optics and escapes with a couple of rounds. So there’s no guarantee of a ceiling. He’s only +300 to win ITD.
If Amil projects to be super popular based on his price tag and recent box scores, it may honestly be smart to come in underweight as this is a completely different style of matchup than his previous two.
With that said, he still has pacing upside. He could still hurt or break Gomis down. He could take him down. At 7.4k, he may not need 100 points to be optimal and an 80-90 point win could see him contend for the optimal. So I still like him a bit and I do think he can win this fight.
I won’t be nearly as heavy on Amil this time as I was in his past two matchups, but he’s priced very cheaply for the amount of offense he will attempt. I consider him a solid secondary target with some upside, though it’s not an easy matchup for him to reach that ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Amil by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson
Fight Odds: Barlow -309, Patterson +250
Odds to end ITD: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Barlow 9.2k, Patterson 7k
Weight Class: 170
I’m looking forward to the return of striker Danny Barlow, who will aim to stop the two-fight win streak of dangerous grappler Sam Patterson on Saturday.
Barlow is now 9-0 professionally with five wins by knockout and three by decision, and he previously earned his contract on DWCS in 2023 with a one-minute KO.
Since entering the UFC, Barlow is 2-0 with one win by TKO and one win by decision. Barlow made his UFC debut last February against Josh Quinlan, and cleanly outlanded him at range for a couple rounds before knocking him down and finishing the fight in the third round.
It was the performance I was hoping for in that spot, as Barlow is very clean at distance with straight shots and a threatening kicking game, and he faced little to no adversity from Quinlan who failed to close the distance.
More recently, Barlow won a split decision against Nikolay Veretennikov, outlanding him for the first couple rounds before slowing down and losing the third.
Barlow is tall and long for this division, standing 6’2” with a 79-inch reach, fighting out of the Southpaw stance. He’s simply a decent kickboxer, who works better in a mid or outside game rather than in the pocket. I especially like his kicking, where he can attack multiple levels.
Barlow hasn’t always been a high-volume fighter but he was able to land 95 sig. strikes in 11 minutes in his UFC debut, which is a strong pace. If he’s able to keep distance, I think he can compete with much of the division and he’ll have a shot at damage as well. He did only land 47 significant strikes against Veretennikov though, in a much more tepid bout.
Grappling is where Barlow is theoretically weaker, which could play a role in this particular matchup.
Most of his fights have played out on the feet though, so there isn’t a major sample to work with. He has defended takedowns well at times, and I thought he stuffed the one nice shot that Quinlan attempted in that debut.
He was taken down on the regional scene though, and he gave up his back in that exchange, ultimately fighting out of the RNC where other fighters may have tapped.
I think it’s likely that Barlow may lose to a grappler moving forward, but he may not be horrid there. I’m hopeful just based on the way in which he sprawled to defend against Quinlan, though Quinlan isn’t very effective.
At this current time I will consider Barlow’s takedown defense “fine”, but it’s largely untested.
I do think Sam Patterson is likely to test him in that element, as Patterson is coming off back-to-back first-round submission victories over Kiefer Cosbie and Yohan Lainesse. He also won his contract on DWCS in 2022 with a 2nd round RNC.
Patterson is now 12-2-1 professionally at age 28, earning seven wins by submission and another four by TKO. Both of Patterson’s pro losses have come by KO, including his UFC debut where he was knocked out in a minute by Yanal Ashmouz.
Patterson is a grappler by base with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and he’s super tall and long for the division as well. He will match up well with Barlow, but he stands 6’3” tall with a 78-inch reach, which is pretty long and will give many opponents trouble.
Patterson just isn’t a very processed fighter, which is one of my main issues. I would not consider him a strong wrestler offensively or defensively, and I generally expect him to struggle in both areas.
Patterson did take down both Crosbie and Lainesse without much trouble, and basically immediately submitted both. They were fine performances but I do have to point out that both Crosbie and Lainesse are not UFC level talents, and neither are still on the roster.
I do think Patterson can clinch and take down weak competition, but I would expect him to struggle mightily taking down any decent wrestler. Likewise on the defensive side, he’s defending takedowns at 33 percent and I don’t love his sprawl or general balance.
On the regionals, we’ve seen Patterson taken down somewhat often as well. To his credit, he’s worked back up to his feet or reversed position, and even come away with the submission win. He isn’t easy to finish once the fight hits the mat, but I don’t love his first-level takedown defense and I think he will be controlled by good wrestlers in the UFC.
The general length of Patterson will pose problems to many opponents though, especially on the mat as he’ll use his long limbs to attack front chokes. He is a dangerous submission grappler, but largely in the opportunistic sense and not in the sense of physicality, process and control.
On the feet, I think Patterson is a liability defensively. His chin is kind of stuck in the air and we’ve seen him cracked on a number of occasions.
Even outside of his first-minute KO loss in his UFC debut, Patterson was hurt early in his DWCS fights as well, and other times on the regional scene too. I don’t love his durability and I expect him to get knocked out again sometime soon.
Offensively, he’s OK though. His length has really aided that though a lot of his fights have taken place at 155, where he won’t be as long at 170 pounds. He can still throw long strikes, kick a little bit, and pick opponents apart.
He’s only won by decision one time though so I kind of doubt his abilities to fight a purely clean striking fight for three rounds. Perhaps if he’s outsizing his opponent he will be more comfortable. In a war, I don’t think Patterson has the defense or technique to cleanly win rounds.
In general, I don’t love Patterson. I think he’ll continue to pick up some wins ITD with chokes, but I think he’s weak defensively in multiple areas and lacks some general process.
As far as this matchup, I believe Barlow is the cleaner striker. Barlow is 6’2” with a 79-inch reach, so he will size up well with Patterson. I think it may give Patterson more trouble than vice versa as Patterson is more used to dramatically outsizing opponents.
Regardless, both fighters can strike at distance a little bit. I just think Barlow is the cleaner striker and the better defensive striker. I would trust him to land more consistently and I think he’s the more likely of the two to land with damage.
I think there’s a pretty decent chance that Barlow can hurt Patterson at some point and get a TKO. It could come early. It could come in round one, as both of Patterson’s KO losses have come very early.
Patterson will have some damage equity too but more based on variance than anything else.
Otherwise, I guess Patterson will be the one to clinch and grapple. I do have some worries that Barlow just isn’t great on the mat, and if Patterson can take him down with any consistency, he’ll probably just win the fight.
My guess is that he cannot take Barlow down with consistency though. In fact I think Barlow can likely take Patterson down, though he may not want to.
It just feels like grappling is the best path for Patterson. Don’t allow Barlow to work at distance, make it messy and try to lock up a choke. I do think he can do it.
I just have to favor the distance striking and damage potential of Barlow more, and I’d trust him more over an extended period. I’m going to take Barlow to hurt Patterson and get another knockout.
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On DraftKings, Barlow is priced up to 9.2k which will put him squarely into the boom or bust category.
As much as I’d love otherwise, Barlow is just too expensive to pay off this price without an early KO. Even though we’ve seen him land volume at times, he’s coming off a win in which he failed to land 50 significant strikes. There’s pretty severe downside risk in that sense.
Also, Barlow may not want to grapple. I do think he could land takedowns but I can’t really project him for many, and it’s possible he’ll just avoid grappling situations entirely.
The bottom line is that if you’re playing Barlow, you’re playing him for an early KO. And it’s a path I think he can achieve. Barlow is -160 to win ITD which is decent, and obviously I noted that both of Patterson’s pro losses were quick KOs.
This is a spot where I’m actually fine to play into Barlow, despite the risk. It will suck if the fight extends, but hopefully Barlow won’t be too popular coming off a weak 52-point win.
There are others in this range worth investing in too, so I won’t consider Barlow a smash spot and a priority above all others, but I think he has a reasonable shot at an early KO given the opponent in front of him, and he’s a solid upside option at 9.2k.
Patterson at 7k is a fine tournament target for upside as well.
I worry he’ll be more popular than he should be though, coming off wins of 101 and 98 DK points. I would be pretty scared to fade him too because I think a lot of his win equity lies in an early submission.
Furthermore, we don’t have a major grappling sample on Barlow. It is possible he’s being overvalued in that area and Patterson can just finish him quickly in one exchange.
With that said, again, Patterson’s last two opponents were very weak fighters. Neither would even be considered a strong regional talent, so this is a massive step up on paper and I don’t think he’ll achieve the same result.
Patterson will still project OK with an +285 ITD line. I like his length and his willingness to attack chokes. He has tournament upside and I think he’s a solid low-end play.
But I’m not picking him to win this fight and I wouldn’t be excited to play into Patterson if he projected to be popular. I’ll have exposure due to the fight dynamic but I’d aim to be near the field or underweight overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barlow by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Ricardo Ramos vs. Chepe Mariscal
Fight Odds: Mariscal -422, Ramos +325
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Mariscal 9.4k, Ramos 6.8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have enjoyed watching Chepe Mariscal’s UFC run thus far, and he’ll be looking for win No. 5 when fights when he takes on Ricardo Ramos this weekend.
Mariscal is 18-6 professionally, but all of his losses have come to good competition including Gregor Gillespie, Bryce Mitchell, Joanderson Brito, and Steve Garcia. So he is not losing to bums or anything. He actually has a win over Youseff Zalal and Pat Sabatini as well. So he is tested and has a lot of experience. He also recently beat Jack Jenkins and Morgan Charriere, so he is a quality fighter. He last defeated Damon Jackson in a pretty impressive grappling based performance.
Mariscal is kind of a freestyle fighter. I don’t consider him very great at anything, but he is well-rounded and is competent everywhere. He generally likes to strike, and I consider him a competent striker. He also landed knockouts in a few fights recently. However, he has been knocked out before, and I have seen him hurt early. He lands 4.75 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.24 in return.
I think what I really like about Mariscal is that he is willing to get dirty and he is super tough, with good cardio. He will strike, but if he needs to, he will clinch and dirty box. He is good on the inside landing close quarter strikes. He is just capable of landing offense in general and I liked the way he made it dirty vs Jenkins after losing the distance striking exchanges early. It just shows that Mariscal has various ways to win a fight and is willing to switch the way that he fights if he is losing in a specific area.
Mariscal is also competent on the mat. He has three wins by submission, and when he is on top he actually knows BJJ and can pass, go to mount, etc. Mariscal can also grapple for 15 minutes without issue. I really liked the way he just beat up Damon Jackson on the mat.
Mariscal lands 3.09 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 72 percent. I consider him an okay defensive grappler, and when he is on his back he can defend himself. He at least tries to work up but will give his back up at times. He has never been submitted which is honestly impressive given some of the grapplers he has faced.
I just consider Mariscal solid. He will never be a champion, but he is well-rounded and can fight for 15 minutes. Since he is well-rounded, he can also expose fighters with holes in their game like he did to Trevor Peek in his UFC debut. I just expect Mariscal to compete at this level.
Mariscal will be taking on UFC veteran Ricardo Ramos.
Last time we saw Ricardo Ramos fight, he won a very close split decision against Josh Culibao. He basically was outstruck by Culibao and hurt at one point. However, he got two timely backtakes spread out in two rounds and it was enough to win the decision for the judges. He actually got outlanded 70-27 in significant strikes which is concerning.
Ramos is a decent fighter and pretty well-rounded. He is an okay striker. He lands 3.03 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.84 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent. He is okay on the feet and mixes in a variety of strikes.
However, his numbers aren’t great and he has been knocked out a couple of times. I am just a little concerned for him when he is striking. He has shown random spurts of power though and landed a tremendous spinning backfist in his most recent KO win against Danny Chavez.
Ramos is a decent grappler too. He lands 2.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about five takedowns per fight. He has a decent takedown game and actually landed eight against Bill Algeo. He can take the back and lock in RNCs as well and I consider him a solid submission grappler.
However, it is really embarrassing that he is generally known as a grappler and he was submitted by guillotine in his last two losses. It just makes me not trust him, and for whatever reason he is just a guy who seems to get finished in a variety of ways and manages to drop the ball.
Ramos seems fine as a defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 72 percent. However, he did play guard against Lerone Murphy and was knocked out on the mat via ground-and-pound.
Ramos is just fine. He is a UFC capable fighter who is pretty well-rounded and has some finishing ability in all areas. I do think his random spurts of power and durability issues make his fights hard to predict. He can randomly get finished and he can finish people himself.
As far as this matchup goes, I just trust Mariscal more. On the feet, I think Mariscal is the better minute winning striker. I also think Mariscal can make this dirty on the inside and he can probably beat Ramos up a bit. I do think Ramos is kind of underrated and dangerous though, and we have seen Mariscal knocked out before. After seeing Ricky Simon randomly knock Javid Basharat last weekend, I wouldn’t say it is impossible for Mariscal to get caught here.
If Mariscal doesn’t get caught though, I think he will just get the better of the exchanges and probably even hurt Ramos. I just hated the way Ramos got outlanded by Culibao recently too.
As far as the grappling goes, I think Mariscal could actually get on top here and land ground-and-pound too. Maybe he can hold some position too. I think Ramos could actually get some takedowns too. However, I doubt Ramos can hold Mariscal down outside of a back take.
Overall, I just think Mariscal is a better round winner and is tougher than Ramos. Ramos probably needs moments to win like a random knockout or a backtake, with a ton of control or a submission. Mariscal is a tough cat though so my guess is Mariscal survives and eventually pours enough offense of his own to take over this fight.
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On DraftKings, Mariscal is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.4k, but he’s a bit different than the typical fighter we would see at this price tag.
For starters, it wasn’t long ago when Mariscal was a dog to Trevor Peek. He was largely viewed as a regional veteran but nothing special, and it’s been cool to see Mariscal have so much success already in a short UFC career.
He’s also not some elite finisher, which makes this tricky. Mariscal isn’t a knockout artist, nor an elite submission grappler. His only win ITD in the UFC came from an injury.
But he’s well-rounded and can fight at a decent pace. He really beat up Jackson on the mat last time out which contributed to a huge 139 point score. He also scored 108 in his UFC debut decision which shows decent offensive production upside.
The problem in this matchup is that Ramos is pretty solid. He’s flukey, but solid. Ramos can strike and can grapple, and he can also be broken in both of those areas. I like Tim’s take that Mariscal is tougher but it’s also difficult to say exactly how this fight will play out.
The risk is that it’s competitive. If it plays out on the feet, Mariscal can win but a KO is far from guaranteed. If he wrestles, he can probably have success but a finish is far from guaranteed either. Or, Ramos could just quit early in the fight off some adversity, which we’ve seen a few times now.
So I do think Mariscal has upside. He’s -145 to win ITD which feels too strong for my liking, but Ramos has been finished in four of five losses, so it’s quite possible. At 9.4k, I do think Mariscal is in play.
I would consider him far more safe for offensive production than most of the rest of this 9k range. Ribovics is probably the other well paced fighter but he, Pinto, Barlow and Kape all likely need knockouts to really have a shot at a ceiling.
Mariscal I suppose could get there in other ways. He can land a few takedowns, earn control and rack up ground strikes. A late finish could still get him to 100 points or above. Having multiple paths to a ceiling makes Mariscal a pretty strong option.
I just need to point out that Ramos isn’t a bad fighter, and I don’t view this as one-way traffic. So if Ramos survives and makes it a competitive fight, that wouldn’t be a surprise.
You don’t have to pay up to 9.4k for that reason. The other names in this range I listed also could win by KO.
If I have the salary to pay up, I’ll certainly consider Mariscal. He’s fairly safe with multiple paths to a ceiling, and will rate out pretty strongly overall. I’ll still aim to spread my exposure out in this range and it would be perfectly fine to prioritize Pinto or someone else in hopes of scoring a quick KO.
Ramos at 6.8k probably won’t make many of my rosters.
He is a fine fighter, and he can win this fight. He could have striking success or grappling success. It does seem unlikely that Ramos will win rounds with any consistency, unless he gets a few big moments.
Those are possible but not necessarily something I’d want to bet on. Ramos is +675 to win ITD which is pretty poor, and he’s one of the biggest dogs on the slate.
It seems reasonable to choose paying up for win equity when possible. I don’t want to count Ramos out completely, but I’d still consider him a very low-end target at best, who benefits from leverage and from being low owned overall.
Outside of a tournament sprinkle, I will likely just avoid Ramos this week and pay up for fighters with cleaner paths to winning and scoring.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mariscal by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. John Castaneda
Fight Odds: Castaneda -304, Andrade +274
Odds to end ITD: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Castaneda 8.9k, Andrade 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I will always tune into a John Castaneda fight as he is an action fighter who loves to scrap. He’ll be taking on a fellow action fighter Douglas Silva de Andrade this weekend.
Castaneda likes to strike and occasionally mix in takedowns. I consider Castaneda a competent striker, but I don’t really trust him to dominate on the feet much. I think he will just be in fun action fights against the lower level guys of the division.
He lands 4.67 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.22 in return. He defends strikes at 54 percent. So he doesn’t have great metrics, but I do at least consider him a decent striker who is willing to try to make things happen.
When he has a volume edge, he will at least take advantage of it. He has some good straight punches. Castaneda has been knocked out and hurt a couple of times though. He lost by knockout in a war to Daniel Santos. Marcos also hurt him. I just kind of expect ups and downs for Castaneda on the feet as he is offensively capable but he is hittable as well.
Castaneda lands 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes. He actually does go for takedowns a bit in fights but I don’t consider him a super strong wrestler. He will probably be limited to out grappling very weak grapplers.
Castaneda will be taking on Brazilian brawler Douglas Silva de Andrade. He is basically a lesser version of Jon Lineker. He comes forward with pressure and throws hard shots, but he doesn’t have the skill, speed, or power of Lineker. He does fight with that same style though.
De Andrade is 7-7 in the UFC fighting pretty good competition. I pretty much expect De Andrade to be in fun action fights where he will trade wins and losses. He will never be a serious contender but he is never an easy out either.
De Andrade is basically a striker. He lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.93. He defends strikes at 57 percent. He has a negative striking ratio, which isn’t good, but Font and Yan basically ruined his metrics. He has fought some good guys too.
With all that being said, I do think De Andrade looks declined. He is almost 40 years old and his offensive output in his last three fights has been awful. He has landed 28, 61, and 36 significant strikes in his last three decisions. That is just not a lot of output man.
De Andrade doesn’t grapple often. He only lands 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about one takedown per fight. He defends takedowns at a decent 72 percent and is a decent defensive grappler.
As far as this matchup goes, I just am picking Castaneda because he is younger and throws more volume. Castaneda is six years younger than De Andrade and De Andrade just hasn’t looked good lately.
Castaneda actually throws offense too. He landed 111 significant strikes in his last win and he will actually attempt takedowns too. That should just put Castaneda up on the scorecards here against De Andrade outside of big moments.
I think these guys will mostly strike but Castaneda can maybe land a takedown or two. I also think Castaneda has better cardio. So I do think Castaneda is the rightful favorite here.
This still is a striking fight though and De Andrade does have some power, so variance could come into play. Maybe De Andrade lands something big to swing a round or land a knockout. Outside of that though, I think Castaneda has some clear offensive production advantages.
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On DraftKings, this isn’t a fight I’m dying to target but there is some potential.
I just consider Castaneda and Andrade to be middling talents. I’m never very high on them, but both have shown flashes of upside. I agree that Castaneda is the fighter more likely to produce consistent offense, so he’ll be the pick to win.
Andrade is just tough to get out of there though. He’s physical, and powerful. He’s not throwing a ton but he can land big shots.
It’s both scary and funny that both Andrade and Castaneda have been knocked down in two of their past four matchups, yet Castaneda lost both and Andrade actually won both. It just makes me a little fearful of random variance.
Castaneda is priced at 8.9k this weekend and likely will need a knockout or a knockdown at least. He can produce a lot of volume, but he’s not super consistent with that and Andrade doesn’t usually absorb a high number of strikes.
The fight is -270 to go Over 2.5 rounds too, so my concern is that the fight extends and kills off Castaneda’s upside. He could land takedowns but I don’t think he’ll do much with them. He’s only +385 to win ITD as well.
So I don’t feel the need to prioritize Castaneda. The most likely outcome is a semi-fun but extended contest in which he outpoints Andrade and underperforms for his price tag.
However, as mentioned, Andrade has been knocked down in two of his last four fights. A KD is possible and a KO is possible. I’d consider Castaneda an interesting semi-contrarian target and I’d be mildly interested in him for that purpose. But he won’t be in a large percentage of my lineups and I think there are better finishing options priced nearby.
Andrade is likely even more dependent on a KD/KO to win this fight, though he’s very cheap at 7.3k.
He shares the same ITD line as Castaneda at +385, which isn’t spectacular, but telling of his power. Again, Castaneda has also been knocked down twice in his last four fights.
The floor here on Andrade is pretty low, and I don’t love him as a fighter or in this matchup, so I don’t expect to end up with much exposure. I expect the field to be very light on Andrade as well though.
So if you’re interested in a cheap, unowned dog, who has some power and some KO upside, Andrade is worth consideration. He’s just not very talented or consistent, and he’d only be a low-end sprinkle for me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Castaneda by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Andrea Lee vs. JJ Aldrich
Fight Odds: Aldrich -207, Lee +175
Odds to end ITD: +350
DraftKings Salaries: Aldrich 8.7k, Lee 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a crossroads fight here in the UFC’s women’s flyweight division between JJ Aldrich and Andrea Lee. Both of these girls could really use a win.
Aldrich is an okay boxer and has a good one-two combination with her straight punches. She literally throws that same combo over and over. She lands 3.88 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.38 in return. She defends strikes at 60 percent. Aldrich is simply okay on the feet. She isn’t good but isn’t bad.
I do think Aldrich has some decent snap on her punches and that is a major reason why she was given the nod in a win against Montana De La Rosa in a striking fight that was numerically even on the strike count.
Aldrich is a decent grappler. She only lands 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she is capable and topped out at four takedowns in her matchup against Cortney Casey which was promising to see. In the fight vs Casey, Aldrich also showed a good ability to float in top position, stay safe, and avoid submissions. She obtained 5:44 of control in that fight. I also think Aldrich has decent takedown defense at 66 percent and she has shut down solid grapplers like Gillian Robertson.
I still just don’t like some of Aldrich’s striking performances lately. She lost a couple of clear striking rounds to Veronica Hardy which wasn’t great to see.
Speaking of terrible performances lately, enter Andrea Lee who seems to be on the back nine of her UFC career. Lee has lost five straight fights and a loss here may very well mean UFC retirement.
I will give Lee some slack though as her losses have come to Viviane Araujo, Maycee Barber, Natalia Silva, and Miranda Maverick. That is a tough strength of schedule and Lee almost won a couple of those fights.
Lee’s last fight against Montana De La Rosa was very concerning though. That fight was a rematch. In the first fight, Lee absolutely dominated Montana as Lee was a good fighter in her prime. Lee actually lost the rematch / most recent matchup though and she just didn’t look herself. Lee won the striking exchanges early but then actually lost striking exchanges later in the fight and was taken down a few times too. I think that fight made it pretty clear that Lee has declined.
Historically, Lee is a decent fighter. Her striking is decent. She lands 4.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.83 in return. She has a good jab and can mix in a variety of strikes. I think she is a skilled striker and decent at range.
Historically, Lee is also an okay grappler. She lands 1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes and can float in top position a bit. She only defends takedowns at 54 percent though and has been taken down in eight of her last 10 fights. Her TDD isn’t awful and she has okay get ups at times, but she can be held down to a degree.
Lee is a fine fighter historically. She can strike a bit, she can grapple a bit, and she is a tough girl with good cardio. However, I am not sure she is the fighter she used to be, and I just don’t have much faith in her anymore.
As far as this matchup goes, I am simply going to pick Aldrich because I think Lee has declined. If this was prime Lee, I would actually flip the line and make Lee the favorite. I just don’t think Lee is in her prime anymore.
I think these girls will mostly strike. At this point in their careers, I actually think Aldrich has more grappling upside because she has better TDD than Lee. I doubt Lee can get or hold Aldrich down. I do think Aldrich catching a kick or something and getting a bit of top time is possible.
I still think these girls will strike for the most part though. On the feet, even with a declined Lee, it will probably be competitive. I do think Aldrich has a little more power and snap on her shots though. The way Lee has responded to getting hit lately hasn’t been good. I do think numerically, the numbers will still be competitive, but I just think Aldrich is more in her prime and has a bit more sting in her shots. Aldrich will probably just land a bit more impactful than Lee.
I am still not all that confident here though. Aldrich literally just dropped clean striking rounds to Veronica Hardy. Would Lee stealing a couple of striking rounds shock me? Not really. However, I just think Lee is past it so I will pick Aldrich to win.
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On DraftKings, I think it’s best to pretend this fight doesn’t exist and just move on.
There is zero chance I am playing Aldrich at 8.7k and it’s quite possible she ends up sub 10 percent owned publicly.
This fight is -500 to go the distance which is one of the heaviest lines of the year, and Aldrich is only +575 to win ITD herself. There’s probably still value on the GTD quite frankly as Aldrich has landed zero knockdowns in 15 UFC bouts, nor does she have any submission wins.
Aldrich just isn’t very good and she’s an awful fantasy producer. I’d project her for something like 70 significant strikes here, and probably one or zero takedowns. She may not score 60 in a win.
It lines up with her past results too. Aldrich has decision wins of 57, 68, 86, 81, 69, 59, 63 and 69. It’s obviously not enough at 8.7k.
This isn’t the best scoring slate, and she will be super contrarian, so that is really the only merit I see. But Aldrich just doesn’t have a lot of ways to score points. I honestly think you’re just hoping for a completely random shot to land and hurt Lee, or maybe she can wrap up a choke for the first time ever.
I’m not playing Aldrich personally and I consider her a pretty easy fade at 8.7k.
Lee at 7.5k is more tolerable, but only barely.
I’ve been high on her at times in the past but she’s clearly regressed, and she’s not someone who I trust to make positive developments in her game. I do absolutely think she can win this fight though.
Lee has been losing to fairly strong competition, and though she hasn’t always looked great, she’s been semi-competitive at times. She still landed 70 sig. strikes against Rosa in her last loss. For comparison, Aldrich just landed 27 strikes in a loss to Hardy, which is really pathetic.
So it would honestly be a surprise to me if this fight wasn’t close. Lee can strike just fine and she can match or exceed Aldrich in pace. Aldrich might land the better shots and beat her, but I doubt they’ll be dramatic.
Lee can also wrestle some and Aldrich is inconsistent. Aldrich defends well at times, but she’s also given up three takedowns to Na Liang and two to Ariane da Silva in her last four fights. Lee could land one or two takedowns, though it probably won’t matter much in terms of impacting the fight.
Lee just doesn’t project for a great ceiling either. Aldrich will limit her, and Lee is still +575 to win ITD as well. I think it’s quite possible that Lee wins, but I’d still expect her to fall in that 70-80 point range.
At 7.5k, it’s probably not enough but at least we can have a conversation. I’m definitely targeting other fighters for more upside, and Lee won’t be a priority at all in that sense. I’m actually expecting her to be quite low owned as well, coming off so many losses in a row.
Lee has some win equity at a cheap price tag so ultimately, she’s a viable low-end secondary target. I think mixing some of her into your portfolio makes sense, and she could potentially come through on a card where few or no other dogs win.
However, it also makes sense to cap that ownership pretty firmly, as Lee just isn’t in form and doesn’t have much of a ceiling on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aldrich by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Danny Silva vs. Lucas Almeida
Fight Odds: Silva -225, Almeida +189
Odds to end ITD: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 8.6k, Almeida 7.6k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Lucas Almeida’s a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season who lost in his opportunity. But he was brought into the UFC the following year as a short notice fill-in and has since gone 2-2 – he’s 15-3 as a pro. Danny Silva’s a fellow Contender Series alum who earned a contract back in 2023 and made good on his debut last year despite missing weight – he’s 9-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Almeida comes from a muay thai background but in watching him over the years, he fights a more pressure orientated, kickboxing-based style.
In that, he’s had his most success when he can dictate the pace of his fights and be the guy going forward. He’s not the most technical guy in the world (can be at times though) as his entries can be reckless, and is often very hook-based in his flurries.
But he has shown significant power components as a guy who will throw with intent – nine of his 15 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
On DWCS, he had a strong start against Zellhuber, 2Xing him on strikes and landing some big shots in there to boot. However, he started to tire a bit as the fight went along, Zellhuber started to pick up timing, effectively countered and began to apply more effective pressure – Almeida dropped rounds two & three.
Against Trizano, he had a good start but got dropped right at the end of the 1st round, but then finished strong, winning the minutes, eventually hurting Trizano and finishing him off. I thought his technical striking did look better in that outing. Not much happened in the Fili fight before Almeida got clipped and put out.
He most recently outlanded Cuamba 70-59 en route to his first decision victory and hurt Cuamba multiple times – he showed some more composure in that outing as well so Almeida may be turning over a new leaf.
Defensively, he’s a guy that relies more on his chin than anything in the firefights and despite largely being durable throughout his career, he got iced by Fili and has been dropped three times in totality, so that loose defensive nature has started to catch up to him when fighting better guys.
Despite besting Cuamba, Cuamba still landed on him at a 50% clip.
Overall, Almeida’s pace, pressure and power will realize him success at the UFC level, but he’ll continue to struggle with more technical, quicker fighters who won’t succumb to being bullied and can make him pay for some of his defensive shortcomings.
Silva comes from a boxing background and it shows in his style.
He likes to operate in the lip of the pocket, switch stances, roll punches and target both the body and the head.
He’s not only shown that he can keep a consistent work rate, but a pretty high one as evidenced from his fight on the Contender Series where he went 204/317 on significant strikes in three rounds. But he’s fought at a higher pace in other regional fights as well, and primarily excels as the guy going forward which also aids in his optics.
Silva’s shown power as well with five of his nine pro wins coming via KO/TKO – he’s also hurt other opponents that he hasn’t been able to finish. He’s not the most proactive kicker but he’s had some damaging success with them in his last three fights.
Defensively is where he struggles as a guy that can fight with his hands down and try to roll punches.
Also, when he does keep a higher guard, that opens up opponent body work.
He has a lot of “technical brawler” elements to his game so despite landing a high number of strikes in many of his fights, he’s getting hit quite a lot as well. However, the guy’s got great durability and can take one hell of a shot.
It was his only pro loss to Kawaihae, who was bigger than Silva, where Silva struggled with some of the longer movement-based attacks from him early but did find success as the fight progressed.
Culibao most recently 2x’d him at distance over 15 minutes as Silva struggled to track him down with consistency, but Silva hurt Culibao early and had a good round three specifically.
Overall, Silva’s got that dog in him to where if opponents don’t come proper, he can/will break them down with attrition. I still see more longer/rangier kickboxer archetypes giving bigger issues to Silva at a UFC level.
How it plays out: I don’t see how the stand up could be boring here as both guys always bring it. They’re also both front footed fighters so it’s a spot where something will have to give. While Almeida has some of the same tools that Culibao did to give issues to Silva, he’s not a good back foot fighter and doesn’t have the same footwork/counter capabilities. Almeida’s fine to fight in the phone booth which is right where Danny Silva wants to be. Both guys are hittable but I give a clear durability, footwork and head movement advantage to Silva – Silva can also fight effectively from both stances and switch mid combo. I ultimately just trust him in a firefight scenario more than I do Almeida.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Almeida is a BJJ black belt with five of his 15 pro wins coming via submission.
Unfortunately, I’ve only been able to view one of the submissions which was his last regional outing in which he snagged up a guillotine against the fence.
Offensively, he’s not a guy that shoots TDs but he has landed a few here and there – I’ve seen him rack up some minutes on top but on an opponent who was accepting, so take that for what you will. He’s often let guys up when gaining top positions.
Defensively, his TDD isn’t very good but back on the regionals, he was difficult to hold down for extended minutes. But he also hadn’t fought any good wrestlers and had problems getting stuck against the fence.
He fought Sabatini a few fights back who’s a sound wrestler/grappler and got exposed where he wasn’t able to stuff the TDs/work up and eventually got submitted in the 2nd round.
Most recently, he stuffed three of five shots from Cuamba, where he scrambled up on the first attempt but conceded a TD later in the fight and wasn’t able to work back up, which won Cuamba that round.
Overall, he seems competent in the BJJ realm offensively, but I don’t rate him as a wrestler offensively or defensively and he’s going to struggle against stronger UFC level floor players.
There isn’t too much to say with Silva on the ground being a base boxer who’s not a very willing wrestler in the aggregate.
He landed two TDs on the Contender Series but wasn’t able to do anything with it. He pounded out his last regional opponent on the ground but that was after hurting him on the feet numerous times.
He realized success in the 3rd round against Kawaihae where he controlled him for the bulk of the round when Kawaihae was tired and landed some good GNP to secure that round for him.
Silva also landed four TDs and racked up 5.5 minutes of control against Culibao, which played a crucial role in him earning the decision last time out. Despite not flattening Culibao much, it was good to see him adapt in the fight and switch up the game plan.
But he’s still not a fighter that I’d project to wrestle heavy on a fight to fight basis.
Defensively, the wrestling is what ultimately lost him the fight to Kawaihae as he struggled with double legs in the first two rounds, and got his back taken on one occasion. Arteaga also got to his back briefly in his last LFA fight. But outside of that, his TDD has looked good to date.
He’s only a BJJ blue belt as of 2019 with no pro wins or losses via submission, so there’s still more to learn with Silva as a floor commodity.
I’d assume the ground will be more of a weakness than a strength at the UFC level though for Silva if I had to guess.
How it plays out: The ground is a bit difficult to cap as I’ve seen some good and bad for both. Almeida’s obviously the more credentialled grappler on paper so you’d have to give him more submission upside. At the same time, I’d probably give Silva more wrestling upside just based on what we saw in the last fight. But it’s a spot where I’d anticipate both guys primarily stand and bang it out.
On what’s a relatively lackluster APEX card, this is at the top of the list for Fight of the Night potential should it go 15 minutes. I have my issues with both guys but given what I touched on in the striking segment and Silva probably having more upside to mix a TD or two in, he’s my pick to win. It is a matchup that has some high-variance components based on how both guys fight but I think Silva finds the chin of Almeida.
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On DraftKings, this fight is squarely on my radar given the willingness for both fighters to brawl.
I really like Danny Silva. I don’t think he’s a world beater but he’s a super fun striker with speed, power, volume and durability. He looks like the type to fight and succeed in wars, and he’s already had success doing so.
At 8.6k, he’s going to rate out pretty well for me and I think he has a pretty realistic shot of winning by KO.
Silva is just faster than Almeida and Almeida isn’t very defensively sound. Silva should and shots here and I’m not very confident Almeida can take them. Silva is only +155 to win ITD which isn’t incredibly strong, but at 8.6k I like him quite a bit.
Silva is also getting bet up, so he’s becoming a value at his DK price. He’s now -225 to win the fight and priced right next to Marquez who is -135. And with Aldrich and Gomis right above him, who both project extremely poorly, I could see Silva ending up quite popular by default.
That is a concern of mine but not a huge one. The bigger concern is if he just doesn’t get a knockout. If he lands 100 significant strikes and nothing else, Silva will bust even if the fight is super fun.
I have a hard time believing someone won’t get hurt here though, and I also think Silva has a path to 2-3 takedowns, even if he doesn’t do much with them. The pacing and offensive production in this fight should be really strong and I think Silva is a very solid play at his price tag, with legit finishing equity.
Almeida is an interesting target at 7.6k and I like him for similar reasons as Silva.
I just simply don’t like him as much as Silva as a prospect. He’s far less durable, and can’t wrestle very well. He’s not defensively sound.
But he is willing to fight aggressively and scrap, and that’s already led to three knockdowns in two wins in the UFC. When he loses it will probably look ugly, but when he wins, it will probably be impressive.
I think Silva is going to beat him, but there are definitely high-variance elements in this matchup and if these two just decide to brawl, either fighter could get hurt. I don’t think Almeida can keep up with Silva but I do think he can land some clean shots and who knows, damage is very possible too.
Almeida shouldn’t be extremely popular and I don’t love him, but I am very willing to target him given the pace of this matchup. He’ll be the leverage side of the matchup I am pretty confident, and could be a sneaky underdog in that sense.
He has some finishing equity +250 to win ITD, and at 7.6k, he’s a decent upside target for the price. There is still concerns that a win could look like 100 sig. strikes, no knockdowns, and no takedowns, but I have a feeling if Almeida wins he’ll need to do some damage.
I won’t be super heavy here but I like Almeida as a secondary/leverage target and I wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field just given the dynamic and pacing of this fight.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Charles Johnson vs. Ramazan Temirov
Fight Odds: Johnson -122, Temirov +106
Odds to end ITD: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Temirov 8.4k, Johnson 7.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Charles Johnson bypassed the Contender Series back in 2022 getting the call straight up to the UFC after winning the LFA 125 lb. title. He had a rockier start to his run, but had a strong 2024 and is now riding a four-fight win streak – he’s 6-4 in the UFC and 17-6 as a pro. Ramazan Temirov’s a newer addition to the flyweight roster who also bypassed the Contender Series and made good on his UFC debut back in October – he’s 18-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Johnson’s a bigger guy for the division standing 5’9” with a 70” reach.
He works in a free flowing nature with hands down, stance switching, shoulder rolling, straight shots, leg kicks and tepe kicks. But we’ve seen Johnson performances be all over the board.
Mechanically, he’s a decent boxer and kicker who’s shown some power components, especially recently with knockdowns in his last three fights, but he is primarily a volume-based striker. Johnson lands 4.77 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.62 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate.
My main issues with him do come defensively though as he has struggled with effective pressure at times. But he’s been durable and doesn’t have an ounce of quit in him despite facing some adversity in the past.
The bigger concern with Johnson is that he’s been a slower starter, having dropped the 1st round in the majority of his UFC bouts, and has Bobby Green tendencies meaning he can fuck around in there a bit. Empty volume at times, will go backwards, tries to shoulder roll punches, etc. – essentially why we’ve seen Bobby Green in a lot of close fights over the years despite outlanding people.
He can get into these “sparring” like rhythms and doesn’t always step on the gas enough.
Overall, Johnson has the tools to out-strike a lot of guys but needs to fight more consistently minute to minute and round to round.
I’m unsure of Temirov’s official background but he definitely profiles as a striker.
He operates in a more traditional Euro-Asian coast type of style where he’ll be light on his feet, use a lot of lateral movement, not be particularly high volume on the outside but will burst in and out of the pocket with strikes.
The bulk of his actions are of higher explosiveness, and he packs a serious punch at 125 lbs. with 11 of 18 pro wins coming via KO/TKO. The guy just uncorks bombs that many opponents haven’t been able to deal with.
While it’s a style that can be very effective because he’s also not absorbing strikes at much of a rate, if those finishes don’t come, it can lead to tighter margins on the feet.
However, in his two decision wins that I saw, he more or less just chipped at his opponents and was one step ahead.
We did see him briefly hurt in his last RIZIN fight though, so he’s not invincible, but I’d project him to probably be pretty durable as most guys are out of that region.
Overall, Temirov’s style isn’t one I’m the biggest fan of analytically, but opponents don’t want to take flush shots from him and will probably have a difficult time cutting him off with consistency.
How it plays out: Off the top, Johnson will realize a big size advantage of 5” in height and 7” in reach. The stand up is tricky to analyze because I see merit to both guys. While Johnson’s volume patterns are much more consistent overall, he’s not as effective getting offense off on guys who won’t stand in front of him. Temirov profiles as the bigger hitter of the two and probably has better defense just in his style. However, the size of Johnson can’t be ignored, coupled with his power translating better recently and him being the best striker that Temirov has fought to date – Johnson has the better cardio as well.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Johnson’s wrestling/grappling background but the ground is where he’s had some struggles in the UFC.
We saw him deal well in the scrambles with Royval back in 2018 (who’s now a top 5 guy in the division) and actually have some latter wrestling success of his own – I do agree he lost the fight, but the margins weren’t large at all. In his defense, he’s only one of four guys who Royval hasn’t finished, which tells you something about his defensive capabilities.
He’s gotten stuck on the fence a bit in a few other fights but generally isn’t the easiest guy to flatten from conventional positions.
Obviously, that got shut down against Mokaev where he was taken down 12 times but on 26 attempts and controlled for 80% of the fight. He was able to work up a healthy amount but struggled creating space – Mokaev is also a stud wrestler though with a very bright future.
Then Zhumagulov really struggled to control Johnson, going 1/4 on TDs. Flick went 1/3 but in the one time that Johnson did get taken down, he was able to reverse position.
He got taken down three times by Osbourne on 10 attempts, but Osbourne didn’t really do much with the positions – it was the later grind though that probably cost Johnson the fight. Both Durden and Estevam found wrestling success, specifically in getting to the back of Johnson to establish their control to win those fights.
But he worked up well against Maksum who’s shown some grinding elements in the past. He more recently shut Hadley out who went 0/11 but Hadley’s also not the best wrestler.
Offensively, he doesn’t wrestle much but has hit some nice TDs here and there.
On top, he’s been stronger from those positions to snag subs or finish with strikes – he did finish Flick off with GNP in that outing but that was more due to striking damage accumulating.
He also found some brief dominant positions in the Maksum fight.
He’s still not a guy that you can anticipate a ton of offensive production from though as it relates to a UFC level and fighting better guys – currently landing 0.56 TDs per 15 minutes at 23%.
Overall, Johnson’s TDD is a hole in his game when facing better wrestlers despite stuffing at 67%. But he’s not going to be easy to flatten unless opponents can get the back or prioritize wrestle rides. His submission defense is very good though.
Contrary to the ‘OV’ at the end of his name, there’s very little to say with Temirov on the floor.
I’ve only seen him shoot one TD which was unsuccessful and only one of his 18 pro wins come via submission.
He’s finished a few guys with ground strikes but that’s been a product of him hurting them on the feet and then following up with shots. He’s had some struggles in the past defensively though as his last pro loss came via armbar to Zhumagaliev back in 2019.
It was a fight he struggled with his TDD in but was able to avenge that loss a few years later. He was still taken down a handful of times in the rematch but his TDD and get up game looked improved.
His sprawls also looked better in some more recent fights as well, but he also hasn’t been proactively shot on much at the same time.
Overall, I’d like a bigger sample of Temirov on the floor before making any definitive claims, but he’s shown little offensive upside historically and some ground struggles.
How it plays out: Despite Johnson’s poor offensive metrics and having some documented defensive struggles, I’d give Johnson more ground upside here just in the sense that we have seen Temirov taken down and subbed before and the guy has no interest in offensively wrestling himself. Even if he does here with size parity, he’s not holding Johnson down or subbing him. Whether Johnson looks to grapple at all is highly questionable but the upside is there for a couple TDs or to find some positions potentially.
Really weird fight. Despite Johnson’s four-fight win streak, he’s still a tough guy to trust as he’s never 30-27ing anyone and his fights are largely 29-28 types of decisions. He’s got a lot of good tools but struggles putting things together for a full 15 minutes. On the flip, this Temirov guy has real power at 125 but he’s also not a high volume striker minute to minute and has no wrestling upside. So, he’s a guy where if he’s not finding KOs at the UFC level, his margins are probably going to be tighter as well. I don’t have a strong take here but I’m going to take Johnson as he’s a big step up in competition for Temirov and despite getting hurt in some outings, Johnson’s still never been finished before. So, I’m more so leaning on his UFC experience, size, durability and cardio to get the job done.
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On DraftKings, this fight has some merit in the mid-range but I think it’s a pretty risky one that could easily fall short of the optimal if it extends.
Temirov is priced at 8.4k and he’s the higher upside fighter on paper. He’s coming off a first-round KO win that netted him 129 DK points, so I think he could draw some attention.
However, I think he’s closer to a fade long term. He’s very erratic, and yes explosive, but it’s not super technical and he’s also pretty small. And he doesn’t wrestle. So unless he’s landing some big, explosive shot, he won’t really be landing much at all.
With Johnson being a lot bigger than him, a five inch height advantage and a seven inch reach advantage, I don’t know if Temirov can easily land those wild shots. It is possible of course, but doesn’t seem likely that he will produce a lot of offense. And Johnson has never been finished. He’s been knocked down once before but that’s a blip on the radar in a pretty sizable sample.
Temirov is only +240 to win ITD and I consider him extremely boom or bust in this matchup. Even if he could win a decision, I wouldn’t want any part of it. The bulk of his ceiling equity lies in an early KO.
At 8.4k, Temirov is in play, but I’m not excited to target him. I don’t think it’s a good matchup and it’s a huge step up on paper. With additional size advantages for Johnson, I just don’t see the point to chasing an early KO for Temirov. I’d aim to be light on him personally and I’ll be happy to be underweight if he projects to be popular.
Johnson is trending as the value side though, so perhaps the public won’t be on Temirov too much. The lower owned he is, the more willing I’d be to take chances on the KO. Mixing him in as a secondary target is fine given his explosive nature though.
Johnson at 7.8k concerns me as well.
I do think he’s the more consistent volume striker, the more technical fighter, and the more experienced fighter with better cardio. I feel it’s fair to favor Johnson outright.
However, my concern is that Temirov doesn’t really exchange in the pocket. He’s darting in to throw wild shots, and then he’s moving out. He will sit far out at range so he won’t get hit often.
Johnson can potentially land on him a decent amount, but I don’t see Temirov just sitting in front of him trading. I think Temirov’s style is also going to limit the upside for Johnson in that sense.
And while Johnson can wrestle, I am far from sure he will try. Even if he does try, my gut feeling is that he probably won’t have success. I’d bet Temirov can defend or scramble up if Johnson attempts 1-3 takedowns.
Finishing upside is also tricky for Johnson as he’s not the biggest hitter. He can have success via accumulation but I don’t know if he can really accumulate a lot of offense. So his opportunities will simply be limited. Johnson is +375 to win ITD which is a big concern.
In decision wins, I don’t think Johnson is likely to exceed value at 7.8k. He’s scored 85, 72, 73, and 83. Even his most recent 85 point score came with a KD and multiple TDs.
I don’t hate Johnson as he’s still a value for his price, but I’d only want to play him in a situation where he could actually test the durability of Temirov. We’ve seen Temirov hurt mildly before but never knocked out. My gut feeling is he can survive the fight even if he’s a little behind at distance.
So I don’t love Johnson as a target either. There is some viability in high-variance striking exchanges and lack of data on Temirov, but ultimately Johnson is likely to take a decision if he wins at all and he probably scores less than 80 points.
I don’t want to completely exclude this matchup, but it’s tough to make either side a priority even if both sides technically do have paths to score well. Temirov has more upside on paper but I’m picking Johnson, and I’ll probably be quite light on both.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Montana De La Rosa vs. Luana Carolina
Fight Odds: Carolina -130, Rosa +113
Odds to end ITD: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Carolina 8.3k, Rosa 7.9k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a mid level WMMA fight here between Luana Carolina and Montana De La Rosa.
Carolina is a striker and a Thai striker more specifically. She uses a lengthy and evasive game to land some long punches and kicks. She is okay. She lands 4.81 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.54 in return. She only defends strikes at 50 percent.
Carolina is simply an okay striker who can compete against the low and average strikers in this weight class.
Carolina doesn’t wrestle much. She only lands 0.34 takedowns per 15 minutes and has never won by submission in her professional career. In her last fights against Ivana Petrovic and Julija Stoliarenko, she did at least float on top and got some control time. Her offensive wrestling is still not good though.
Carolina does at least defend takedowns at 74 percent and defended well in some of her recent fights. She can be pressured and clinched up, and I have seen her taken down and controlled though.
Carolina was also comically knee barred against Ariana Lipski a few years back. However, her TDD isn’t THAT bad. She sneakily beat Loopy Godinez and defended 13 of 15 takedown attempts by Godinez. She also defended well against Julija Stoliarenko. When she is actually grounded though, she does have trouble getting up at times. I also just don’t trust her submission defense after seeing the Lipski sequence.
Also, even though I picked her and she beat Lucie Pudilova, I still hated the way Pudilova landed a couple of takedowns in that fight. Carolina struggled with below the waist takedowns and I still don’t totally trust Carolina as a defensive wrestler. Pudilova only attempted four takedowns and landed two, and the two takedowns came at the end of round 1 and 3. Had Pudilova just wrestled more urgently and happened to land a takedown earlier in the round, I honestly think Pudilova would have won.
Carolina will be taking on Montana De La Rosa. De La Rosa is an okay fighter. I mostly consider her a wrestler. She lands 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a capable submission grappler in top position.
The issue is I just don’t think De La Rosa is a particularly good wrestler and anytime she faces someone with actual wrestling skills, she generally fails to get her game going. I just consider her takedowns average. She can smash weak grapplers but that is it. She also only defends takedowns at 63 percent and can be held down on her back a little bit.
De La Rosa is very tough, but she is just not good at anything else besides being tough and being an okay wrestler. Her striking isn’t good. She lands 2.90 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.39 in return. She defends strikes at 44 percent and is generally at a disadvantage in the striking.
I do think her striking has improved a bit though. She can throw a jab and some functional straight punches now. Her striking looked better against Andrea Lee, but Lee looked washed and I still don’t totally trust De La Rosa on the feet.
I also just wish De La Rosa went to her wrestling more. She attempts about six takedowns per fight. That isn’t an alarmingly low number, but I think it should be higher given wrestling is her main path to victory. She has had fights where she just hasn’t chased wrestling enough. She attempted one takedown against Aldrich which is a bad sign.
I guess I would just trust De La Rosa much more in this matchup against Carolina, if I knew she would go to her wrestling persistently. If she attempts six takedowns or more, I honestly think she is going to win this fight. Carolina’s below the waist takedown defense is awful as are her get ups. So if De La Rosa attempts over six takedowns, I think she will land a few and have plenty of success in top position which honestly should win her this fight.
However, if De La Rosa strikes too long, she is probably going to lose. I think Carolina is better on the feet, especially with her kicks. I think De La Rosa can strike competitively but she will probably be mildly behind in the striking for the most part.
So this is on De La Rosa’s fight IQ. The more I taped, the more I think De La Rosa can own on the mat here. So it is up to her to go to that gameplan. I tend to think she will try to wrestle here so I am going to pick De La Rosa to get this done as I just hate the get up game of Carolina.
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On DraftKings, I am somewhat interested in Rosa at 7.9k, and I am basically not at all interested in Carolina at 8.3k.
Rosa, at least, can wrestle. While it’s still not necessarily enough, it does give her a pretty strong floor in wins. But not necessarily an elite ceiling, as we just saw her score 80 DK points with three takedowns in a decision win.
However, Rosa has had a few smash performances. She’s scored 111 twice. I don’t think she’s going to smash Carolina, but I do think it’s possible Rosa could land one takedown per round, dominate with control and land a lot of ground strikes. Even a finish is in play, to a degree, because Carolina has been finished on the mat before, but Rosa is only +425 to win ITD so I wouldn’t bank on it.
Regardless, her price of 7.9k firmly puts Rosa in play. I would expect her to score in the low 80s at worst, and more likely in the high 80s-100 range if she beats Carolina. I don’t think she’s extremely likely to win, but I do think she’s the value side and I favor her for her wrestling.
Rosa will get some love, but she probably won’t be chalk. You don’t need to get crazy here, but I consider her a strong secondary target and I wouldn’t even mind being a bit above the field this week based on her chances to exceed value in a win.
Carolina should be the leverage side at 8.3k and probably the extreme leverage side. I don’t really see why anyone would be excited to roster her in this matchup.
She has a worse ITD line at +725, which is telling, and a worse path to scoring with minimal offensive wrestling. Striking volume is relatively high for Carolina, but Rosa doesn’t usually brawl and she could also limit Carolina by wrestling.
For Carolina to reach a ceiling, she probably needs to defend takedowns and light Rosa up early, accumulate a lot of strikes and find a late stoppage. Or a random WMMA sub. I’m certainly not expecting her to do it but it’s one possible outcome.
Carolina actually does have two 100 point wins in her career. She needed a KD, two TDs and 100+ sig. strikes to reach 102 in her debut. And she needed two TDs and a late TKO stoppage against Stoliarenko. Her other four wins scored 76 or less
I think Carolina has a reasonable chance to win and maybe light Rosa up with strikes at points. I think winning ITD is a pretty low percentage and Rosa really should end up on top of her for minutes.
The only positive is the potential ownership. She could even be sub 10 percent and if you want a contrarian target, I assume she will fit that category. I just don’t feel the need to invest in her given her skill set and the matchup, so I’ll lean closer to a fade myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rosa by Decision (Confidence=Low)