UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira (7/12/25)

by brettappley
in Index
on February 10, 2026

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

MAIN CARD

Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira

Fight Odds: Teixeira -259, Lewis +220

Odds to end ITD: -900

DraftKings Salaries: Teixeira 9k, Lewis 7.2k

Weight Class: HW

Welcome back from a short hiatus as the UFC gets set to host another heavyweight main event, this time between perennial contender Derrick Lewis and essential newcomer Tallison Teixeira. This fight will be ugly as hell if it actually lasts a few rounds, or let alone five rounds as it is currently scheduled, though the much more likely outcome is that it will end quickly.

Teixeira made his UFC debut in February, and promptly knocked out Justin Tafa in just 35 seconds. Teixeira is now 8-0 professionally with all eight victories coming in the first round, and it’s no surprise the UFC wants to push him.

Teixeira previously earned his contract with another quick finish on the Contender Series, knocking out his opponent in less than two minutes in a high-action affair. It was honestly the most competitive two minutes of Teixeira’s pro career, in what has otherwise been a few seconds of domination.

Teixeira actually ate a bunch of shots in those exchanges, and I definitely think it poses a longer term question about his defense. He didn’t look super evasive, and although he didn’t react poorly to eating those shots, it does feel like a bigger hitter could potentially put him away.

On the regional scene, most of Teixeira’s fights lasted less than two minutes. As the bigger, longer, more athletic fighter in those matchups, Teixeira was largely able to walk his opponents down, throw big strikes, and get quick finishes.

I do really like Teixeira’s offensive output and ability to inflict damage. Part of it does come down to his size as well. He’s massive at 6’7” with an 83-inch reach, and he’s powerful as well.

I also think he’s technically solid offensively. He can throw the jab. He can throw leg kicks, and high kicks. He looks offensively potent to me and I think it’s pretty likely Teixeira can knock out most of the mid or even upper tiers of this heavyweight division on pure potency alone.

The issue of course is what happens after a few minutes. As of now, there isn’t an answer. I highly doubt Teixeira can keep up a high pace for many rounds. I’ve never really seen him wrestle, though apparently he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and holds one win by submission. His striking defense looks questionable enough to where he could very well just be the type to both win and lose by early KO.

At the least, Teixeira rates out as a solid, dangerous HW striker who is only 25 years old and should put on some good performances here and there. Time will tell exactly what his ceiling capabilities are, but for now it seems fair to be skeptical.

Derrick Lewis is likely on the tail end of his professional MMA career now at age 40, and he’s not a fighter I’ve ever been high on to start with.

Lewis is fun, and powerful, and has the ability to knock out anyone in the sport on the given day. He’s also extremely poor defensively, extremely poor on a per minute basis, and simply not the type of fighter to ever give me confidence.

Lewis lands 2.48 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.48 per minute over a long career, and his defensive rate sits at 40 percent which is awful. He’s a huge guy, but 6’3” tall with a 79 inch reach won’t look huge in comparison to Teixeira, who is a few inches taller and longer, and a better distance striker as well.

Lewis also doesn’t excel on the ground. He defends takedowns at 52 percent while landing 0.52 per 15 minutes of his own. However, he’s actually shown great survival instincts there, and his massive gut has prevented a lot of opponents from being able to control him. Lewis will simply stand back up to his feet when he feels like it, and if he ever gets on top, he can reign down ground-and-pound for a TKO finish.

Perhaps the best attribute to Lewis currently is in that survivability. Dating back to early in his career, he’s actually scored a lot of wins past the first round, and that even includes his most recent third-round victory over Rodrigo Nascimento.

Lewis can be broken early but as he doesn’t exert a ton of energy, he can also be more dangerous late once his opponents tire. He has wins in round four, many in round three and round two, and perhaps that will be his most clear path to victory on Saturday.

While I do think Lewis could knock Teixeira out early, I favor Teixeira moderately. Teixeira is a better distance striker with more tools and more output, and I expect him to have early success. I think there’s a good chance it leads to a knockout win for Teixeira.

If Lewis is forced to brawl, he could simply land one big shot and change the momentum of the fight. Or, he could try to survive, and start to press more on Teixeira in round two or three. If Teixeira doesn’t have strong cardio, which is very possible, we could see Lewis completely take over and find a TKO in those rounds.

This fight is honestly a mess, and not one I’m particularly excited to analyze. I’m going to pick Teixeira to win by early KO. He’s just so big and offensively potent that I do think he’ll have some success. The longer the fight goes, the more I’d favor Lewis to come back and take over, and he’ll also carry that one-shot KO power in his back pocket to turn the tide at any time.

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On DraftKings, Teixeira seems like a pretty strong tournament target at 9k for his early finishing upside.

He’ll rate out as a very boom or bust target, though I suppose having five rounds to work with on paper raises his floor a bit. I’d be shocked if this fight lasted longer than a few rounds though, and even in an extended fight, we can’t assume these guys will be producing much offense.

The upside from their scoring profiles will come with an early finish, and of the two, Teixeira has more early finishing upside in my mind. He’s -215 to win ITD in a fight that’s lined at -210 to finish in Under 1.5 rounds, and he’s never seen a round two in his entire career.

He will carry the Quick Win Bonus equity as well, though I never really factor it in, that did contribute to his 129 point score in his UFC debut. Without those extra 25 points, Teixeira could very realistically score in the low 100s in an early KO, which is good but less exciting.

In an extended fight, even a round two or round three TKO, I’d be scared that Teixeira wouldn’t produce enough points to reach 100 points, and I think he has real bust risk in that sense. It’s still a thin window to reach a ceiling, though the early KO feels like the most likely outcome.

If Teixeira was priced at 9.6k, I wouldn’t be playing him honestly. At 9k, with six fighters priced above him, Teixeira is very affordable. He’ll fit in well and still has the upside for a quick KO, so I’d consider him a strong target on this slate for upside.

But there is bust risk in an extended matchup, plus the general variance in a HW fight like this one, so I don’t think he’s a complete lock and load.

Lewis at 7.2k is a solid secondary target who you should probably have exposure to.

My biggest issue with Lewis is that even in wins, he doesn’t always produce a big score. He’s scored in the 60s multiple times in wins, and in the 80s, and in his most recent round three KO, Lewis only put up 89 points. It’s because he’s not producing much offense until he comes back to win, so that’s a major red flag to me.

However, he’s priced at 7.2k on a slate where there are very few competitively lined fights. And he’s fighting an opponent who’s never seen a round two in pro MMA. If Lewis comes back to win in round two or three and scores 78 points, I’d probably want exposure to that on this slate at 7.2k.

Lewis is only +245 to win ITD but that’s a pretty solid number for a price tag this cheap. Obviously he’ll gain some public attention as well for his name, being in the main event and fighting an opponent with limited samples. I am not aiming to be much overweight necessarily.

But when I do have to punt, I don’t mind Lewis. He still carries finishing equity and upside in a matchup that lacks full data points. It makes sense to invest in this matchup as a whole given it’s -900 to end ITD, so using Lewis as a standard secondary target at 7.2k is likely where I’ll end up.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Teixeira by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim

Fight Odds: Bonfim -415, Thompson +330

Odds to end ITD: -160

DraftKings Salaries: Bonfim 9.3k, Thompson 6.9k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Stephen Thompson’s a long time veteran, entering his 14th year on the active roster and is now at the not so ripe age of 42 years old – he’s 12-8-1 in the UFC and 17-8-1 as a pro. Gabriel Bonfim’s the former LFA 170 lb. champion and an alum of the 2022 season of Contender Series. After a hot start to his run, he suffered a setback in late 2023 against Nicolas Dalby but has rebounded nicely and coming off back-to-back wins – he’s 4-1 in the UFC and 17-1 as a pro.

The striking component:

Thompson has been known as one of the better point fighters over his years in the UFC. 

His unique karate style coupled with his movement patterns, stance switching and timing has made it difficult for guys to track him down (striking wise) with consistency. In that, he only eats 3.1 SApM at 55% and 2.8 DApM at 61%.  

However, he has been knocked down six times so he’s not invincible and has started to get hit more in recent years as well. Primarily how Thompson has lost the stand up in his fights has been with the bigger shots coming from opponents, not him getting significantly outpaced at distance.   

In fact, through 21 UFC fights, the biggest distance differential he’s ever been outlanded by was five strikes against Darren Till in what was one of the slowest paced fights in UFC history.      

Offensively, he lands 4.1 SLpM at 45% and 4.7 DLpM at 44%. He’s one of those guys that opponents can’t let get into a rhythm or he’ll pick them apart.      

Also, despite his point fighting nature, he’s shown some power as well with 10 knockdowns through his UFC tenure – the last one came back in 2019 though.  

Thompson will also begin to go forward more when he deems necessary.   

Overall, Thompson’s proven to be a very difficult guy to outwork on the feet over an extended duration but his timing, speed and durability are declining now in his latter years.

Bonfim comes from a boxing background where he was a state champion in his native Brazil.    

He’s a lankier guy at 170, possessing a 72” reach which he uses pretty well from an offensive perspective. His best tool is his jab which complements his lead hooks and straight rights — he’ll also go to the body or supplement with sound low kicks.

His overall core competencies to me are that he pressures well and has very fast hands; however, he only has three KOs which is somewhat surprising, but he has gotten the better of the overall exchanges in almost all his fights.    

It hasn’t been all roses for Bonfim though as he got hurt against Alberth who’s a jiu-jitsu guy in the LFA Grand Prix – not a great look – did rally in the next round and KO’d him promptly though. Against Waters, he was getting the better of the exchanges but was still getting hit clean as well.   

There wasn’t too much take away from the Lazzez fight as it lasted 50 seconds and both guys found success – contextually what we can take away though is that Lazzez is a talented striker (in my opinion) and Bonfim had Lazzez uncomfortable enough standing to force an early shot from him – Bonfim also showed to be the faster guy in there.   

He had a good start against Dalby but got tired in the 2nd round where Dalby broke him down primarily in the clinch to finish him off.

He went a full 15 for the first time in his career a few fights back, outlanding Loosa 85 to 45 at distance – he was still breathing out of his mouth in round two and his footwork wasn’t stellar, but it was encouraging to see him rebound the way he did off the cardio death in the prior fight and show he can fight three rounds.

He most recently looked solid on the feet against Williams, outlanding him and also avoiding the power shots of Williams, holding him to just 22% accuracy on his strikes.  

My main issue with Bonfim is that his pocket defense isn’t anything to write home about as he has kept his chin exposed at times and isn’t as effective if put on the back foot.  

Overall, Bonfim’s a talented offensive striker who’s dangerous and going to be the faster guy in most of his fights but I still have some concerns with his cardio and defense.

How it plays out: Off the top, Bonfim will realize a slight height advantage of 1” but Thompson will have a 3” reach edge. The striking’s interesting in the sense that despite Thompson being old, he’s still a tough guy to get extended distance offense on because he’s not going to stand in front of his opponents. It’s also fair to say that Thompson will be the most sophisticated striker that Bonfim as faced to date as well. However, Thompson doesn’t really push a “taxing” type of pace and despite the point referenced above, Bonfim is pretty technical in his own right when he wants to be. The main advantage I see here for Bonfim is speed. He’s just far quicker than Thompson at this point in time and I didn’t love Thompson’s movement patterns against Buckley last time out despite that being a competitive fight pre knockout. Bonfim may only have three career KOs but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hurt Thompson here. With all that being said though, I wouldn’t anticipate Bonfim to run away on the feet where the overall exchanges are probably competitive.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Obviously with Thompson coming from that karate background, he’s not the guy to go out there shooting/landing a lot of TDs – 0.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 41%.     

He also hasn’t landed a TD since 2015 so there really isn’t much to say on the offensive front.   

Defensively, he’s been tougher to take down and hold down in the aggregate over his career, stuffing at 63% and only conceding 16% of his overall fight time being controlled. However, we’ve seen that tide shift heavily in his last four losses.    

Burns took him down three times on six attempts and controlled him for seven minutes. Burns is also a solid wrestler and elite submission grappler though. He got grinded into oblivion by Muhammad who went 7/9 on TDs and controlled Thompson for 80% of the fight.

Holland taking him down twice is kind of concerning as well but I think that was more so due to him just catching Thompson off guard. Thompson did stuff 4/5 shots from Rakhmonov but he also got stuck against the fence and once Rakhmonov got him on the ground, he was able to keep him there and eventually find the submission late in round 2 – he was the first guy to submit Thompson in his career though which needs to be noted.

Most recently, Buckley also went 4/5 and got some cage minutes but struggled to flatten Thompson – granted Buckley’s never been a good control wrestler and isn’t a submission threat.

Outside of the more recent sample referenced, not many guys have had any extended wrestling success on Thompson where you’d have to go back all the way back to Matt Brown in 2012 – Woodley had a bit of success in the 1st fight but once again not extended.     

Overall, Thompson getting outwrestled by Burns, Muhammad and Rakhmonov isn’t a bad look on paper but it’s how efficient and how much extended success those guys had that was the concerning part, given the prior historical sample of Thompson.

Despite Bonfim’s boxing base, he’s also a BJJ black belt and a dangerous grappler at that with 13 of his 17 pro wins coming via submission.  

Our footage on him isn’t extensive because a lot of his fights have finished so quickly but he’s shown to be a capable wrestler who works well to the legs.

He’s not a guy that’s going to dive on legs extensively but mixes it in and was dominating Dalby on the floor for half that fight. He was able to pass the guard and threaten some stuff in that fight but in the subs I could view for Bonfim regionally, they all kind of came from odd sequences.   

He grabbed a standing RNC  
A slip on a kick from his opponent where he snatched up a d’arce   
Got put in a guillotine but his opponent didn’t get his legs involved – as a result, Bonfim passed and the opponent more or less Von Flue’d himself   
Lazzez shot a lazy shot to where Bonfim wrapped up his neck promptly and finished the fight  
He took Giles down but then transitioned to that guillotine once again shortly after

So, my general takeaway is that he’s an opportunistic type of grappler with very long limbs that opponents can’t make smaller mistakes against.   

But in terms of what his overall jiu-jitsu prowess is in conventionally “outgrappling” guys in more extended sequences is still somewhat questionable – although we did see more extended ground minutes against Dalby where he did well which was a positive – Dalby’s just incredibly difficult to submit – the more pressing concern is that he got tired in wrestling Dalby. However, he went 4/5 against Williams and eventually caught him in a d’arce choke.  

Defensively, when he’s been shot on, he’s either stuffed or secured submissions, so his defensive wrestling is kind of a question mark, but his concepts look decent – he did get his back taken after getting hurt in LFA though.

Loosa had some early success on Bonfim, but Bonfim was able to work up and stuffed nine of Loosa’s 13 shots in that fight.   

Overall, it’s encouraging to see a guy from a striking background show an additional dangerous submission game but once again, I’m curious to see how that translates to more extended sequences going forward – his last fight against Williams was more encouraging on that front though.   

How it plays out: Despite Bonfim not being the guy to dive on legs for 15 minutes necessarily, I do see this being a fight where he will wrestle more proactively. Thompson’s TDD is starting to falter generally and Bonfim also has the BJJ to complement his wrestling. I still don’t think Thompson will be an easy guy to submit per say considering Burns couldn’t do it and it took Shavkat nearly 10 minutes to do it himself. But Bonfim will have opportunities here and I’d anticipate he’ll be able to threaten and control exchanges.

This is a pretty classic UFC booking between the up and coming highly touted prospect in Bonfim and the grizzled veteran in Thompson. Despite being 42 years old and on the eve of retirement, Thompson’s still a tricky guy to fight given his more unique style. However, he’s drawing to pretty thin margins in a matchup like this across from Bonfim who’s a lot faster standing and has a sizable grappling advantage. As noted, I don’t think he’ll have an “easy” time finishing Thompson but that’s the way I’m leaning as he’s just so opportunistic. Unfortunately, I feel this is the spot where we see Thompson hang up the gloves.

—

On DraftKings, Bonfim is priced up to 9.3k and I would consider him the cheapest fighter of the real “top tier” this week.

Bonfim has traditionally been an early finisher, so he’ll carry upside in his fighter profile. Plus, he has wrestling equity against an opponent like Thompson who has yielded lots of ground time recently, as well as some KO upside given Thompson’s questionable durability as well.

In total, it gives Bonfim some upside on paper to exceed value and contend for the optimal in a win. He’s -130 to win ITD which is decent for 9.3k, and I don’t mind prioritizing him over the more expensive options above.

With that said, Bonfim still likely does need the finish to stand out. And I wouldn’t consider that a guarantee. Thompson isn’t an easy opponent to get out of there, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he survived and even fought competitively.

I do ultimately think Bonfim can take him down though, and unlike Buckley, Bonfim can actually take the back and threaten for subs. I think a mid-round submission like a RNC is very much in play.

The benefit to playing Bonfim this week is his price tag of 9.3k. He’s more easily affordable than others in this range and still carries real finishing equity. I don’t necessarily believe he’s safer or more likely to win ITD than others, but he does have grappling upside and an opponent in front of him who’s on the verge of retirement. Given Bonfim’s finishing profile and metrics, he looks to be a pretty strong tournament target in general and I wouldn’t mind moderate exposure.

Thompson at 6.9k is viable but it’s hard to recommend much exposure.

I’d really only be interested in Thompson if he scored a knockout. Otherwise, a semi-competitive striking affair isn’t likely to result in many points, especially as Thompson will probably try to evade and point fight.

The upside is really that we’ve seen Bonfim get exhausted and hurt before. So if he fails to wrestle early, for example, and then gets tired, perhaps Thompson can swarm him and pick up a TKO. Thompson is only +725 to win ITD and honestly he’s less durable than Bonfim anyway.

I don’t hate Thompson because he’s actually a very good striker and in a striking fight, he could theoretically win. There’s some KO equity. But probably not a lot of it and outside of a sprinkle in tournaments, I’m not overly interested in Thompson this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bonfim by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia

Fight Odds: Garcia -121, Kattar +103

Odds to end ITD: -210

DraftKings Salaries: Garcia 8.4k, Kattar 7.8k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a banger here between UFC veterans Calvin Kattar and Steve Garcia.

Kattar comes from a boxing background and that is his bread and butter. Kattar has an excellent jab and is great with his straight punching. He is also just tough as nails and took a historic beating against Max Holloway a few fights back.

Kattar lands 4.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.62 in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent. His metrics are poor mostly because of the Holloway fight. However, I respect Kattar’s striking. Kattar is a high-volume boxer with power, and is capable of producing knockouts.

I do worry about Kattar’s defense though. I think he is susceptible to kicks as he is really just a guy who thrives in boxing range. I am always skeptical of someone who absorbs more strikes than they land as well. Kattar absorbs 6.75 significant strikes per minute which is simply a lot.

Kattar doesn’t really wrestle offensively but his TDD has generally held up in the UFC. He defends takedowns at 77 percent. He does seem to have strong first layer TDD. However, Aljamain Sterling just dominated Kattar, landed eight takedowns and rode Kattar out. However, he looked good defending takedowns against Youssef Zalal.

Kattar will be taking on Steve Garcia who has been on a tear and has won five straight. Garcia thrives as a striker and more specifically, a boxer. He is super aggressive and will walk his opponents down and throw aggressive boxing combinations. I like that he works the body often as well as I believe body shots are underutilized in the UFC. I like his volume. He tries to drown fighters, use his cardio as a weapon, and he also has power. I really liked the way he swarmed Melquizael Costa and SeungWoo Choi in some of his more recent wins.

Garcia is moreso a brawler but he does have a decent jab and has some okay pure boxing skills. He kind of throws his jab, comes into close range and starts throwing hooks and uppercuts and fights with inside combinations. Garcia also has power and has 14 knockouts in 17 professional wins.

Garcia is aggressive so he is liable to get hit though. Although he has only been knocked out once in 22 professional fights, he has been hurt a lot. Ontiveros dropped him twice before Garcia went to grappling to take Ontiveros down. He was also knocked out by Maheshate and knocked down against Nuerdanbieke. He is a tough guy, but I just feel like getting hurt that often is not a good thing. It shows defensive holes.

I also haven’t seen Garcia have to fight in many durational based striking fights. He kind of just overwhelms overmatched guys in close quarters. None of his recent wins have come against guys who can box with him so this Kattar matchup is interesting and a much different test for Garcia.

Garcia has okay first layer takedown defense and will work to his feet if taken down. He showed some okay offensive wrestling against Charlie Ontiveros where he landed three takedowns. I generally think he will be dependent on winning fights with his hands though. I really like his aggression overall though.

As far as this matchup goes, I am actually going to go with Kattar. Both guys have good takedown defense and I think they will strike.

I do think this is a different matchup for Garcia than recent fights. Kattar is durable and will have no fear boxing with Garcia. I don’t think Garcia will just walk out there and knock Kattar out in under a few minutes. He could do it but I doubt it happens over half the time or anything.

I don’t know how Garcia will look as a technical boxer in a tit for tat striking fight for 15 minutes. However, I actually have to trust Kattar more in a fight like that as Kattar has been in so many of them. Kattar may be more technical and just a better technical boxer. Garcia also gets hurt often and Kattar may put him out.

Maybe Garcia just knocks Kattar out or proves to be a good durational based boxer. I think Garcia can win this fight. However, we likely get a durational based striking fight more often than not here and I trust Kattar more in this type of matchup.

—

On DraftKings, this is a weird spot because Garcia may possibly end up being the chalk at 8.4k.

He’s only a slight favorite, but he’s won five in a row by knockout and it shows up in his box scores. In wins, he’s put up 110, 108, 95, 94 and 133, and generally that is going to attract a lot of attention.

Plus, he’s +165 to win ITD and fighting an opponent in Kattar who has lost four in a row. It has the makings of a spot where Garcia could be pushing 40 percent owned.

However, this feels like a horrible spot to eat the chalk, and if anything, I’d aim for a heavy underweight stance on Garcia myself.

Kattar is just not like Garcia’s past opponents. He’s never been knocked down, let alone knocked out in 31 pro fights which includes opponents like Max Holloway, Josh Emmett, etc. His lone official TKO loss came to Arnold Allen in 2022 but that was from a blown knee.

If Garcia can be the first man to knock Kattar out, awesome, credit to him. There is no way I’d bet on that outcome personally, and I haven’t talked to a single person in my MMA analysis bubble who would pick that outcome either. So my worry is that Garcia actually doesn’t end up chalk because all the touts are going to pick Kattar and come up with similar analysis to this.

If that’s the case, Garcia is more appealing. If he’s closer to 20-25 percent owned, then I’d be happy to play some of him in tournaments. I do think he carries upside in his profile and Kattar is aging at 37 years old.

But Kattar is ultra tough and Garcia isn’t even that great. Garcia has been knocked down five times himself in his last 31 minutes of cage time, which is not great. Outside of early knockouts, I don’t have much faith in Garcia and I still think he’s nearly equally likely to get hurt himself even in brawls that favor him.

So if Garcia is going to be chalk, I’d be looking for a major underweight stance if not fading Garcia outright. That may be more risk than necessary with a large portfolio, but without an early knockout, Garcia won’t be optimal. Kattar doesn’t really get hit that much despite what his metrics say – 445 sig. strikes absorbed in 25 minutes vs. Holloway really skews it. And he still didn’t get knocked down. He’s still defending strikes at 53 percent vs. the 46 percent of Garcia.

If Garcia spazzes out and finds a kill shot, great. It will be exciting and I’ll probably be tilted. He’ll be optimal in that case. There’s just no way I can make a real investment in that outcome at chalk, and I think being cautious on Garcia in this matchup is ultimately the right call.

Kattar at 7.8k is viable but I’m not sold on him either.

The thing is, I do think Garcia could still win. He just won’t produce enough points to be optimal without a knockout. Kattar can also win, but like Garcia, he also needs a knockdown or a finish.

Kattar could very realistically look great, be evasive, and land 100 sig. strikes in a 70-point decision win which wouldn’t be enough. I think that’s likely what he’d prefer.

He can score knockouts, but I wouldn’t label him a knockout artist. He’s +165 to win ITD which is solid for the price. I already mentioned how many times Garcia has been knocked down so it certainly seems plausible for Kattar. It’s still a tough outcome to bet on.

Clearly, if Kattar projects to be much lower owned than Garcia, he’s a great tournament target. He has some finishing equity and is probably undervalued in the matchup. I still worry an extended fight will be a bust and that could be the most likely outcome in this spot.

I like Kattar some and think he’s a decent secondary target for KO upside, but especially if Garcia is projecting at chalk which I am unsure about at the moment.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kattar by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere

Fight Odds: Charriere -263, Landwehr +219

Odds to end ITD: +110

DraftKings Salaries: Charriere 8.9k, Landwehr 7.3k

Weight Class: 145

There are few fighters in the sport more consistent to bring chaos than Nate Landwehr, who will step back into the Octagon on Saturday against Morgan Charriere.

Charriere is now 2-2 in the UFC and 20-11 professionally, with 12 wins by knockout and three by submission, and he’s coming off a decisive loss to Nathaniel Wood in March.

Wood was simply the more effective striker and grappler in that matchup, and won all three rounds on all judges’ scorecards. We were on Wood in that spot as an underdog, and I do find it a bit concerning that Charriere wasn’t able to do more, only landing 42 significant strikes and one takedown over 15 minutes.

Charriere previously knocked out Gabriel Miranda in the second round, and he won by TKO in his UFC debut over Manolo Zucchini as well, with a lost split decision against Chepe Mariscal in the interim, which has aged well in hindsight.

Charriere is a primary striker, who excels with his hands, and also has a respectable kicking game. He’s not an extremely high-paced striker though, and in his loss against Mariscal, Charriere was only able to land 49 sig. strikes in 15 minutes. In total, he’s only averaging 3.46 sig. strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.15 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate, which isn’t particularly strong.

He is effective though, and capable of hurting opponents. When he’s able to get stand-up affairs against weak competition, he will have potential to run through them, similar to what we saw in his debut, and what we saw against Miranda.

However as he takes steps up in competition, his lack of volume will likely contribute to competitive rounds, and he can be hit frequently enough to the point where he can take some damage. I thought Charriere did well to survive against Wood, but he was knocked down early in the first round.

On the ground, Charriere is capable but I’m not sure that’s a strong suit of his either. He’s lost by decision 10 times now, and has been taken down a handful of times in those losses.

Against Mariscal, Charriere defended seven of eight takedown attempts, but still allowed a takedown and reversal, and several minutes of control time. I thought he scrambled well in that fight but the point remains that he’s not likely to dominate in that area, and will be susceptible to being put on his butt by stronger wrestlers.

I do think he’s improving though, and I consider him an OK offensive wrestler. He also landed a good takedown late in that fight and is averaging 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes, so it’s possible he will continue to mix them in. I just don’t see him having the highest wrestling ceiling against strong competition.

Overall, I’d consider Charriere an effective striker who can occasionally mix in ground success, but I’m just a little worried that he’s not going to be able to separate himself against the majority of the division.

Nate Landwehr is coming off one of the worst losses of his career I’d say against Dooho Choi, who dominated him on the mat for a late-round TKO stoppage.

Of course, Landwehr also has a three-minute KO loss to Herbert Burns on his record, and a 56-second KO loss to Julian Erosa, so the guy isn’t immune to being hurt and finished. But he was completely outclassed by Choi and never got a chance to get his game going.

On the flip side, Landwehr also holds an impressive victory over hot prospect David Onama, as a huge underdog, after Landwehr survived some early punishment and came from behind to beat Onama up pretty badly. He survived and came back to finish Ludovit Klein as well, and even in March of 2024, Landwehr secured a quick KO over Jamall Emmers, so the guy has actually beaten some quality competition.

It’s been the story of Landwehr’s career, quite frankly, even dating back to the regional scene. Most of his wins include him getting hurt or taken down early, surviving, and coming from behind to win by TKO.

Landwehr is dangerous, but he still isn’t great technically. He doesn’t have a deep range striking skill set. He’s not an elite wrestler or grappler either. Thus far, Landwehr is landing 5.59 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.77 per minute with a 52 percent defensive rate. He is inclined to brawl and those kinds of fights set up well for him as long as he survives some punishment.

The damage will come, but the guy will fight hard for as long as he’s conscious, especially when he can close the distance and clinch. His offensive ground skills are also fine, but I consider them more dangerous when he has an opponent in front of him who is weak or tired.

The issue is mostly the “come from behind” part of his game. Landwehr is absorbing more than 5.75 sig. strikes per minute. Even in his wins, he often gets hurt.

It’s just a bit difficult to favor Landwehr to win fights cleanly, given his style. But he will fight hard and dish out damage himself, which has the recipe to break certain opponents, even some quality ones.

As far as this matchup goes, my fear again is that Charriere cannot keep up with the pacing of Landwehr.

Technically speaking, Charriere is way better and should have success in this fight. But we’ve seen him go the distance now twice in the UFC and fail to reach 50 significant strikes. Landwehr can easily surpass those numbers and we’ve seen him top out at 118 landed against Elkins, and 91 landed against Onama.

I am worried that Charriere will start fast, have some success, but not be able to keep Landwehr off of him, which will result in more brawling exchanges, and competitive rounds. Charriere also just got dropped by Wood so a TKO from Landwehr isn’t out of the question either. He has never been TKOd officially though, and he’s only lost by submission once.

Of the two, I do think Charriere has a better shot at early damage. Landwehr has been knocked down by four of his nine UFC opponents, and brutally TKOd in two of those instances. That doesn’t include his most recent, ground based TKO loss.

Charriere should be faster to the punch early and I think can damage Landwehr. I really wouldn’t be shocked to see him hurt Landwehr.

Based on how poor Landwehr’s defensive wrestling looked last time out too, I think Charriere can take him down as well. I doubt he’d finish Landwehr on the mat and it probably won’t be his primary game plan, but I think mixing in a couple of takedowns is very realistic for Charriere.

Landwehr just needs to force a brawl. He needs to push forward, get in Charriere’s face, and wear him down. In that type of fight, I do think Charriere would slow down and probably yield a lot of strikes landed himself. I definitely am not ruling out a victory for Landwehr in that type of situation.

I will still favor Charriere overall, as I feel he’s the better MMA fighter, the more technical striker, and should have advantages at distance early. There’s a decent chance he can also build up enough of a lead to win multiple rounds. But I never count Landwehr out as we’ve seen him take some shots and eventually come forward to put his opponent away several times.

—

On DraftKings, I’m semi-interested in this matchup because Landwehr is involved, and usually that means an uptick on exchanges and chances of finishing.

This fight as a whole is actually -140 to go the distance though, which is one cause for concern. It still gives a reasonable chance for a finish though at +110.

Charriere is priced up to 8.9k and I do think he needs a finish to contend for the optimal. And probably an early one at that. The good news is that both of his UFC wins have come early ITD, and many of Landwehr’s losses have as well, but in general I wouldn’t consider Charriere the most aggressive or urgent finisher in the division.

It’s a very real possibility that Charriere just plays the role of the technician, lands 75 sig. strikes over 15 minutes with a takedown or two involved as well, and scores 80 points at 8.9k which would be a bust. At this price tag, I don’t feel inclined to force him in.

However, I do think he’ll have some success early, and that could result in damage or a TKO. He is +175 to win ITD and I don’t really trust Landwehr’s durability. I like him in more mid-range based lineups as he is much cheaper than the bulk of the favorites on this slate, and still poses some upside case in a high-action matchup.

Overall I consider Charriere a solid secondary target. He profiles a bit too boom or bust for my liking but I think there’s reasonable finishing equity here and I like targeting Landwehr matchups in general for pacing/finishes.

Landwehr is priced at 7.3k and will have upside if he wins. He’s a sizable dog here, lined north of +200, but we’ve seen him win in these spots before.

I guess I’d feel better about Landwehr if Charriere had a history of getting finished, which he does not. Landwehr is only +450 to win ITD which is somewhat poor. He did just get knocked down and I do think a TKO is possible, but I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it here.

Regardless, if Landwehr wins, we know a crazy pace is coming with it, and likely damage. He’s topped 100 points several times in wins before and even 80+ on this slate at 7.3k would put Landwehr in contention for the optimal lineup.

So I don’t mind being in on the fight as a whole, to a degree. Landwehr in general is a solid upside target. I don’t think this is the best matchup for him and I’m not going to pick him to win, so that will limit my exposure. But when I need to pay down, I don’t mind taking a few chances here for pacing and potential chaos.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Charriere by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane

Fight Odds: Petrino -690, Lane +506

Odds to end ITD: -800

DraftKings Salaries: Petrino 9.6k, Lane 6.6k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

After dropping his last two fights by knockout to Dustin Jacoby and by submission to Anthony Smith, Vitor Petrino is moving up to the heavyweight division where he will take on Austen Lane this weekend.

Petrino is 11-2 professionally and knocked out Rodolfo Bellato on the Contender Series to book his ticket to the UFC. He then won his UFC debut against Anton Turkaj. He landed seven takedowns in that fight but surrendered five as well. He then submitted Marcin Prachnio in round three after landing four takedowns in that matchup. He then knocked out Modestas Bukauskas after consolidating some top position earlier in the fight. In his most recent win, he kind of beat up Tyson Pedro and landed three takedowns in that fight as well.

Obviously, Petrino has had some stumbles recently. I chalk the submission loss to Smith as whatever. Petrino dove in for a shot and just got guillotined. I think it was more so random than anything predictive. The knockout loss to Jacoby wasn’t great. However, the fight was tied up 1-1 after two rounds and was extremely competitive. The fight was on the table for anyone to win in round three. I still have some hope for Petrino.

Petrino is a good athlete and a big, strong kid. He is clearly dangerous early and can knock people dead. He generally wins fights by early knockout. I think he can hurt people at this level. Petrino also will try to land takedowns, and I do think he can take down average UFC fighters, and ride out top position and threaten with submissions. He lands 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes which is very good.

Petrino is just very green though. He doesn’t always throw a ton of strikes and I worry about his volume at times. I have also seen him hit and hurt before and he was obviously knocked out by Jacoby. I have also seen him taken down and get his back taken. So this guy isn’t perfect.

Petrino is physical and tough though, and I think that will carry him at these early stages of his UFC career, especially at heavyweight. Petrino is also young at 27 years old and athletic, so I do think he can make improvements. So he is a pretty interesting prospect especially at HW which doesn’t have a ton of depth or talent.

For now, I consider Petrino dangerous and knock out capable early but he probably has low volume over the course of 15 minutes. He can also land takedowns at this level and his cardio does seem decent too. I think he is a guy to at least keep an eye on as he does have some upside.

Petrino will be taking on Austen Lane. Lane is now 1-3 in the UFC with his one win coming by decision when he outwrestled Robelis Despaigne.

Lane is a really big guy and a decent athlete. He is 6’6” and I do consider him somewhat dangerous and capable of knockouts. He hasn’t really beaten anyone notable other than Juan Adams on the regionals and Despaigne. Those guys both suck though.

Lane is kind of just a spaz. He will strike a little or look to find top position if he thinks he has an advantage. He usually just gets knocked out though and has been knocked out cold in all of his UFC losses. He just looks too defensively vulnerable.

Lane sometimes finds top position, and I do consider his ground-and-pound dangerous. However, he doesn’t look like an actual good wrestler, and he is poor defensively. I have seen him finished on the mat on the regionals and he will definitely lose fights to decent grapplers at this level.

Overall, I just think Lane is a low tier UFC / high tier regional heavyweight who can maybe win some fights in the UFC by knockout or by some athletic explosion. His chin is a liability though and he will definitely get knocked out a few more times before he probably gets cut from the promotion.

As far as this matchup goes, I think Petrino is better everywhere. He will likely just knock Lane dead on the feet and I think that is the most likely outcome. I do think Petrino may mix in wrestling too, and I could see him owning on the mat here as well. Petrino is definitely the rightful favorite as he is a better fighter with a better chin.

I think Lane’s best chance is just landing a random knockout as the heavyweight division is full of variance. Lane is also big and will have a 4 inch height advantage over Petrino. Perhaps the size can help him. Maybe Lane can win some minutes on the feet with Petrino being low volume? I doubt Lane can do it for 15 minutes though without getting hurt. So overall, Petrino should get this done and is the rightful favorite.

—

On DraftKings, Petrino is going to rate out well for finishing equity, and although he’s still priced in that top tier, 9.6k is a bit more affordable than 9.8k or 9.9k.

The downside is that Petrino has lost back-to-back fights and is moving up a weight class. I don’t totally feel safe with Petrino, especially as he has yet to win in round one in any of his seven tracked fights. If this matchup extends, I would assume Petrino doesn’t exceed value or contend for the optimal.

In that sense, I do think Petrino is very boom or bust. I wouldn’t fault you for prioritizing someone else in this range.

But Petrino probably has the easiest matchup in terms of finding a finish, as Lane has been knocked down and knocked out cold several times. Petrino is -500 to win ITD which is far and away the best ITD line on the entire slate.

It’s going to be tough to look past that finishing metric, to be honest. Especially when he’s cheaper than Kline and Davis, it feels like an easy pay down spot to start lineups with Petrino, and I don’t mind that strategy at all.

Petrino also has wrestling equity so he does have multiple paths to score. He’s won ITD in rounds two and three, and by decision, so he’s not necessarily boom/bust as a fighter. More so I still feel that we want the early finish to capitalize on upside.

I like Petrino, primarily because I don’t like Lane. I am a bit worried that if this fight sees a second round, Petrino won’t score enough to be optimal. But it feels correct to target Petrino mildly/moderately when you can pay up, simply due to finishing equity, and he’d be a fair fighter to prioritize if you had to choose one at cost.

Lane at 6.6k has some HW knockout upside but that’s about it.

He’s looked OK at times and is powerful, and even in his last loss, he knocked Pinto down early. He’s just not very good and can’t really sustain his game. I don’t think he’s a strong grappler either.

The most likely outcome is definitely that Lane loses, but there are still some occasions where Lane scores a knockout. Plus, Petrino is coming off a knockout loss so we know he can be hurt.

I don’t hate having some shares of Lane at 6.6k, just given the finishing upside. He’s only +700 to win ITD but the fight as a whole is -800 to end inside the distance, and there should be lots of leverage on Lane against Petrino.

I likely won’t have much or any Lane with a limited number of lineups but in large-fields, with a larger portfolio, a sprinkle is fine.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petrino by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos

Fight Odds: Tafa -177, Tokkos +150

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Tafa 8.6k, Tokkos 7.6k

Weight Class: 205

The UFC is scraping the bottom of the barrel here as Junior Tafa will take on Tuco Tokkos in the light heavyweight division.

Tafa comes from a Glory kickboxing background though he’s only 6-3 professionally in MMA, and 2-3 in the UFC. He’s also the younger brother of Justin Tafa, for reference.

Tafa is coming off a knockout victory over Sean Sharaf last October that allowed him to showcase some of those boxing skills. Sharaf entered that fight 4-0 as an MMA pro and took the bout on just a few days’ notice, but still had success taking Tafa down early and nearly scored the finish late in the round.

By round two, Sharaf was gassed, and Tafa just pressed on the pedal a little bit, threw a bunch of volume and forced the ref to step in. It wasn’t a super high quality performance but Tafa did look good in his ability to box once his opponent was gassed.

His other UFC win came in 2023 where he knocked out Parker Porter in the first round. All six of his pro wins have come by KO and that’s the primary method I would expect moving forward.

However, the grappling is still going to be an issue for Tafa, as Usman, de Lima and Walker all were able to take him down and control him as well. Tafa tapped out to a leg lock in the first round against Walker last August and it was pretty concerning to see Sharaf nearly get the finish as well. Usman was also able to hold him against the cage for like 12 minutes, so Tafa just isn’t capable of separating in the clinch or on the mat, nor will it be a path to victory offensively.

In that sense, Tafa is simply a limited fighter. He’s a decent technical striker with power, but he’s not going to dominate rounds, and he’ll be largely dependent on early KOs to get his hand raised.

One other note is that Tafa will be dropping down from HW to LHW here, where I think he’ll find his frame is better suited. Perhaps it will lead to more success, but I still think his fighter profile will remain the same.

Tafa will be taking on Tuco Tokkos who is now 0-3 in the UFC (including Road to UFC) and coming off a one-sided loss to Navajo Stirling last December.

To be very fair to Tokkos, his loss on Road to UFC came to Zhang Mingyang, who’s been a legit killer, and Tokkos was heavily favored over Zhang at that time. His official UFC debut came against Oumar Sy who is also a solid prospect, though Sy looked poor recently, and Sy submitted him quickly.

Even Stirling had some hype to him prior to his UFC debut, so at least Tokkos hasn’t been competing with complete cans.

That loss to Stirling was the most concerning of the three for me though, because the optics on the feet for Tokkos were legitimately bad. He was outstruck 70-28 at distance, and was on the retreat the entire time.

While he was never really rocked or nearly finished, it did look like a TKO was on the horizon for Stirling. Tokkos was wilting against the cage in multiple rounds, and based on that performance, I would not be surprised to see him knocked out again soon.

On the positive side, Tokkos did survive and did land a few takedowns. That, in theory, at least gives him a shot against Tafa who has shown very poor instincts on the mat.

Tokkos is a black belt in jiu-jitsu as well so he should have advantages if he can consistently earn top position. I wouldn’t say he’s a great wrestler, but he’s willing, and that’s half the battle.

Tokkos just isn’t a great athlete, so he’s rarely going to be able to force his game on people. He doesn’t have A+ power, and his durability is pretty questionable. I also have questions about his defensive grappling too. And even in a striking fight where Tokkos has shown some capabilities in the past, I have no reason to believe he can compete with UFC level competition at this stage.

It makes for a gross matchup all things considered, and not one I’d have any interest in analyzing or watching with the exception of DraftKings and betting purposes.

I think I have to lean toward Tafa overall. The fight starts standing, and Tafa is a willing striker who should have advantages in the boxing realm.

Could Tokkos compete with Tafa on paper, even on the feet? Possibly. He’s experienced. But his last fight against Stirling was just so concerning. He showed no willingness to fire back and the optics were horrible. I’d have to favor Tafa moderately on the feet at this point and I think there’s a pretty strong chance Tafa could hurt him and find the finish.

My assumption is that Tokkos will try to wrestle. It’s painfully obvious that’s where Tafa is weakest, and Tokkos just did attempt nine takedowns against Stirling. If he attempts another 5-10 takedowns here, I think he can actually land a few, so again, it is a path to victory.

I’m still skeptical he can do much with it. I wouldn’t say he’s some elite submission grappler, and any time the fight is standing, the damage factor should sway judges toward Tafa. So I’d guess Tokkos probably needs a ground based finish to win. It does seem possible but it’s hard for me to bet on at this point in his career.

I’m going to lean toward Tafa to do enough damage standing to sway judges and/or get the knockout, but these guys both suck, and if Tokkos can find some grappling success, he’s certainly live to get his hand raised.

—

On DraftKings, I guess this is a spot where you close your eyes and pull the trigger considering the fight is -600 to end inside the distance.

Tafa is my preferred target at 8.6k but he is fully boom or bust which still scares me.

He’s coming off a solid second round KO which scored only 98 points on DK. It didn’t officially come with a knockdown though, so 108 points was very much in play for him there. And his other TKO win scored 104 points.

Simply put, if Tafa gets a RD1/RD2 finish, he is live for 100 points or a bit more. That is going to put him in contention for the optimal lineup at 8.6k. He is also -135 to win ITD which is really strong for the price, and it ties into the fight being extremely likely to end ITD on the whole.

I still am extremely nervous to be heavy on him though. He’s not an elite power puncher and Tokkos did just survive three rounds. Plus, if Tokkos has early ground success, that could simply extend the fight which also could kill off some of Tafa’s upside.

I think you need exposure here, but you don’t have to be heavy on Tafa just due to the major bust risk in an extended fight. I do like his upside and I’m going to pick him to win by TKO, but there’s no reason to be super confident as this is a very low-level fight and Tafa is very one-dimensional.

Tokkos at 7.6k is mildly intriguing for his combination of grappling and leverage. If he wins, I would expect grappling to be involved which already gives him a solid floor/ceiling.

Plus, he’s 0-3 in the UFC and I highly doubt he’ll be popular coming off an ugly loss. I think Tafa will be higher owned and there should be some leverage on Tokkos against Tafa. The combination of those things makes him an intriguing secondary option, plus he also carries an +185 ITD line which is decent for the price.

I’m still hesitant to buy in here. I don’t really trust him to produce offense or score the finish. He could lose dominantly. I’d consider him a quality large-field tournament target where if I had lots of lineups to work with, Tokkos would be an easy mix-in around the field percentage.

I do not necessarily consider him a priority underdog though and I wouldn’t want too much money tied up into Tokkos shares.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tafa by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis

Fight Odds: Curtis -320, Griffin +262

Odds to end ITD: +170

DraftKings Salaries: Curtis 9.1k, Griffin 7.1k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a striking matchup here between UFC veterans Chris Curtis and Max Griffin.

I mostly consider Curtis a boxer. He has some decent hands, and I do respect his power. He has won by knockout several times in the UFC and knocked out Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, and Joaquin Buckley. He is also a tough guy and has only been knocked out twice in his career with the most recent being to Roman Kopylov in his last matchup.

I still don’t love Curtis’ defense though. He lands 6.16 significant strikes per minute which is good but he absorbs 6.43 and only defends strikes at 53 percent. He can be hit especially if he isn’t in inside range. I do respect his hands and boxing skill in the pocket and in close range, but good distance controllers can get ahead on the numbers against him especially if they fight at a longer range.

Curtis also just gets hit a lot so he is going to need knockouts to win clearly. Curtis is tough though, and skilled and dangerous enough on the feet to compete against a lot of guys.

Curtis doesn’t offensively grapple all that much. He hasn’t even attempted a takedown in the UFC. I consider his first layer TDD pretty good, and he currently defends takedowns at 82 percent.

Curtis will be taking on Max Griffin. Max Griffin is an okay fighter. He is mostly a striker and generally finds success with his straight punches. He lands 3.75 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.66 in return. He defends strikes at an okay 58 percent. Those are okay metrics given his competition. He doesn’t really pull away in many fights though.

Griffin also has decent power on the feet as well. He has a few knockout victories in the UFC and has hurt a couple of durable guys including Mike Perry and Tim Means. I think he has moderate KO upside in general. He also displayed a very disciplined performance against Carlos Condit by using a lot of calf kicks. It was a good performance by him.

I also consider Griffin very durable. He has only been knocked down once in his UFC career. He has one TKO loss against Colby Covington, but it was an accumulation ground finish and wasn’t something based on a lack of durability.

Griffin is an okay wrestler. He lands 1.37 takedowns per 15 minutes which is actually decent. He basically has a power double leg. He isn’t great on top or as a submission grappler though. He doesn’t have a submission win in the UFC. However, he can land occasional double legs and lay in guard at times. He has decent TDD at 69 percent. He can scramble up moderately, but I have seen him held down from time to time.

As far as this matchup goes, I think these guys will battle it out standing. Both guys have solid takedown defense and Curtis never bothers to wrestle, so the winner of the striking exchanges should win this fight.

On the feet, I think this is a moderately competitive fight between two pretty durable fighters. It probably goes the distance more often than not.

I think at this point, I favor Curtis. I thought Griffin looked poor in his last win which was a striking based win against Jeremiah Wells where Griffin was outlanded in significant strikes 32-26. Griffin just looked a bit declined.

I think at this point in their careers, Curtis looks like the more aggressive fighter who will fight at a higher pace. Curtis has landed more than 100 significant strikes in his last three matchups. I like that consistency and it is a pace that I am not sure Griffin will keep up with. So I think Curtis as a mild favorite makes sense.

This is still striking though and mildly competitive so it’s tough to be too confident. I do think Curtis probably wins this more often than not though.

—

On DraftKings, I actually don’t mind Curtis as a contrarian target.

I am not a fan of Curtis at all, but do you know what I am a fan of? Striking at a high pace.

In Curtis’ last three fights, he’s landed 140, 122 and 142 significant strikes, with the two bigger numbers coming in three-round affairs. He hasn’t really been paid off by it though, as he’s lost his last two fights, and I do think that will play into him being under owned on DraftKings.

The issue is that he still does likely need a knockout to be optimal at 9.1k and that outcome won’t happen at an extremely high rate. He is only +255 to win ITD and the fight is -210 to go the distance, which I also think will contribute to him being lower owned.

However, there is a lot of variance in striking exchanges, and more strikes landed means more opportunities. I know that Griffin is historically durable but Griffin is barely escaping these recent fights where he’s failing to reach 45 significant strikes. I absolutely think Curtis can hurt him in a higher-paced affair and I wouldn’t be shocked by a knockout.

Obviously, the fighters priced above Curtis rate out better for grappling and finishing equity. Teixeira is right there as well in the main event. It’s impossible to prioritize Curtis.

But if this is a boxing fight, which it projects to be, I think Curtis will fight at a decent pace and I do think there is sneaky KD/KO equity here. If he’s going to be a contrarian target, I don’t mind using him on occasion as a place to be different.

Griffin is priced down to 7.1k and he rates out OK for floor.

He’s going to project as one of the better options in a higher paced affair, that’s likely to go three rounds. He could land 80 significant strikes or so and win or lose a decision.

I don’t think he has much grappling equity though, and I question his knockout upside at this stage of his career. I mean, he just hasn’t looked great recently. Split decisions over Wells and Means is a bad look.

On paper this fight is semi-competitive but I don’t trust Griffin to be honest. He’s +500 to win ITD.

I don’t absolutely hate him as there is variance in striking exchanges, and perhaps he could win two rounds or land one big shot. You can argue Curtis is at the end of his MMA career too, but his level of competition and recent performances have just been so much better.

I just don’t want a lot of exposure to Griffin personally outside of the floor/price angle, and he rates out as a low-end secondary target for me.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Curtis by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Jake Matthews vs. Chidi Njokuani

Fight Odds: Njokuani -148, Matthews +126

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Njokuani 8.2k, Matthews 8k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a middle class welterweight fight here as UFC veterans Jake Matthews and Chidi Njokuani will square off in a seemingly competitive fight.

Matthews is a decent striker. He lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute, which is not very high, so I do worry about his volume to a degree. However, he only absorbs 2.63 significant strikes per minute and defends strikes at 61 percent. So although he is not landing a lot, he is still landing more than he absorbs and has a decent striking ratio.

Matthews is kind of weird on the feet. He has some pop, but he kind of just stays out of range and then springs in to land his strikes. His constant staying out of range striking style is one of the main reasons why not many strikes are landed in his fights. He kind of just limits engagements in general. Even though his striking style is a bit strange, I still consider him a competent striker. I did think the Matthew Semelsberger fight was concerning though. Matthews was knocked down three times and clearly struggled with the physicality and power of Semelsberger.

Matthews is also a BJJ black belt and a competent grappler. Matthews lands 1.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is decent, so he can string some takedowns together. He is competent at riding top position, but I don’t expect him to outwrestle above-average grapplers at welterweight. He has won by submission five times in the UFC but mostly against weak competition.

Matthews is a decent defensive grappler. He defends takedowns at 67 percent and can scramble up decently well. He was badly outwrestled by Sean Brady and has been outgrappled in other losses as well. So I do think he will continue to have issues against above-average grapplers in this division. However, I don’t expect it to be a huge liability against the mid to lower tier fighters of this division.

Matthews will be taking on Chidi Njokuani. Njokuani is mostly a striker. He lands 4.72 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.64 in return. He is pretty skilled at range with his kicks. He has strong leg kicks and accurate front kicks to the body. He is also moderately powerful and has won by knockout several times in his career with his most recent being to Zaleski sos Santos in his last matchup. I like Njokuani’s clinch game as well. He can manipulate his opponents in the clinch and land knees and score with other Thai based strikes.

Njokuani is a BJJ black belt but has lost on the mat several times. He lost to very solid grapplers though like John Salter, etc. I actually think his grappling is fairly decent when he is fresh and he isn’t a huge liability on the mat. He doesn’t wrestle offensively though and has never landed a takedown in his UFC career.

I do worry about Njokuani when he is pressured. He isn’t as effective going backwards and I do think his cardio is a bit suspect later in fights if a pace is pushed on him. He has lost by knockout twice in the UFC to Gregory Rodrigues and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Those losses just concerned me as Njokuani just wilted to pressure and I questioned his cardio a bit.

Furthermore, Njokuani lost a striking based decision to Albert Duraev which was a terrible look. He was outlanded 45-40 in significant strikes and his volume looked terrible. I just think Njokuani may be afraid to gas so sometimes he conserves himself and doesn’t do enough.

As far as this matchup goes, I have gone back and forth. I think these guys will strike. Njokuani never attempts takedowns. Matthews doesn’t seem to wrestle anymore either and has only landed three takedowns in his last 8 fights.

I do think that if anyone has success on the mat, it will be Matthews. However, I don’t even know if he can easily ground Njokuani unless he pushes a pace. Some grappling success could occur for Matthews, I have seen crazier things happen. However, I am generally leaning against it and I think the winner of the striking exchanges will win this fight.

On the feet, this is really close. I think either guy could hurt the other. However, I do think Njokuani possesses more power and more overall flash knockdown or knockout upside. So honestly, picking Njokuani on that alone is totally reasonable. I almost did.

I do think the round winning striking exchanges will be quite close. I think I sort of trust Matthews more as a point striker. Matthews is probably better defensively and can probably slow down this fight in a way. I just hated the way Njokuani looked timid vs Duraev at range. I really could see Matthews slowing down this fight and winning a tepid point scoring striking fight and that is what I am going to pick to happen.

This is pretty high variance though. We have seen both guys hurt but Matthews is probably more susceptible to getting hurt. So Njokuani could easily win this fight. It is just a very competitive striking fight where someone randomly getting hurt could swing the fight in their direction.

—

On DraftKings, this fight sets up well for finishing equity but I’m not sure either man will play the type of game we want.

Essentially, I just have no faith in Matthews to press on the gas pedal, which is what he’ll need to firmly win this fight. Njokuani doesn’t react as well to pressure and wrestling, but Matthews is ultra content to sit back and land 60 strikes over 15 minutes, which isn’t enough in my opinion.

Matthews definitely has the wrestling advantage here but he never goes to it. Three takedowns in his last eight fights is pathetic. So I can’t assume he’ll wrestle much.

If this is just a striking fight, sure Matthews could win a couple of close rounds or maybe land a big shot, but Njokuani is going to be equally competitive and likely hits harder. So I guess I lean toward Njokuani slightly.

I’m just worried this is not going to be a super fun fight despite both fighter’s ability to win inside the distance. We very likely need an early knockout for either side to contend for the optimal. It feels very boom/bust to me. The fight as a whole is -150 to go the distance which is also concerning.

Of the two, I guess I’d lean toward Njokuani who is now a slight value at 8.2k, as a -160 favorite. He has some KO equity at +250 ITD. He seems like a fine secondary target.

Matthews is a bit overpriced at 8k, and has a worse ITD line at +315. He should be the leverage target though and also has more grappling upside on paper. He’s OK for that purpose.

I’m guessing Njokuani will be semi-popular as he’s coming off bigger scores of 99 and 100, and he’s a value. I’m not looking to be overweight here but around the field makes sense.

If Matthews is way less owned, perhaps he’s a bit sneaky and I wouldn’t mind the leverage. I’d probably aim to come in near the field though and not let this fight kill me.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Njokuani by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Lauren Murphy vs. Eduarda Moura

Fight Odds: Moura -626, Murphy +467

Odds to end ITD: +195

DraftKings Salaries: Moura 9.5k, Murphy 6.7k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Lauren Murphy’s a long time vet and entering her 12th year on the UFC roster where she’s had an up and down career. She’s coming off a 2.5 year layoff, will be turning 42 years old later this month and has cited that this will be her retirement fight – she’s 8-6 in the UFC and 16-6 as a pro. Eduarda Moura hailed from the Brazilian regionals and earned a contract on the Contender Series back in 2023. She missed weight in her first two UFC bookings so she’s now been forced up to flyweight where she’s entering her 2nd fight at her new weight class – she’s 2-1 in the UFC and is 11-1 as a pro.

The striking component:

Murphy’s always been more of a meat and potatoes, blue collar type of striker. She’s not the flashiest or the fastest girl in the world but her striking has come along since her earlier UFC days.

I would say her primary evolutions are in using a bit better footwork to set up her offense and just having the confidence to let her hands go more.

She lands 4 SLpM at 39% — serviceable metrics around the divisional average but has been higher output in her latter years. However, she’s eating 5.3 SApM at 55% — not great.

She was outlanded by both Lee and Calderwood – fights she was given split decision wins in. I thought she lost the Lee fight but her getting the nod against Wood was the correct decision in my opinion.

We obviously saw her struggle severely with the range of Shevchenko where she only landed 11 significant strikes in 19 minutes – got clipped on the feet and then finished off via GNP.

The Tate fight was high paced where the distance strikes were essentially evens, but Murphy landed the better shots, did better clinch work and was able to land a few TDs earning the nod there. She’s coming off getting brutalized by Andrade but to her credit, she hung tough and didn’t get finished despite eating 231 significant strikes.

Overall, Murphy is a serviceable striker who’s historically capable of at least competing with a good chunk of this division on the feet.

Our overall footage on Moura is pretty limited but more specifically in the striking.  

Regionally, I’d only seen her at distance for maybe a minute.

She’s thrown some good straight punches and landed a nice check knee on Ruiz, but she also appears to be pretty linear and does keep her head straight on the center line when throwing strikes or when backing up.

We got about six minutes at distance in the Gomes fight where not a ton happened both ways as both girls were tired, but Gomes out landed her 31 to 12 at distance and 50 to 18 on significant strikes whilst landing the bigger shots. Not much happened in her most recent with Hardy either despite 11 minutes of distance – she was ultimately outlanded at distance 39-19 though and lost the only round she couldn’t secure a TD in.

That’s about all there is to say with Moura’s striking at this point in time, but she appears to be raw on the feet and a grappling dependent fighter.

How it plays out: Off the top, despite Murphy being a former 135er and Moura being a former 115er, they’ll be at relative size parity. Despite Murphy being 41 and definitely weathered, I still favor her on the feet simply because we’ve seen her win fights striking at the UFC level and Moura just hasn’t shown any comprehensive distance striking game to this point in her career. Additionally, we’ve seen Murphy land upwards and over 100 significant strikes numerous times in her career where Moura hasn’t shown that. Maybe Murphy is so over the hill, coupled with Moura still being early in her career where we see Moura make some strides but that’s hard to project out.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Murphy has shown some wrestling capabilities and is a recently crowned BJJ black belt.

She lands 1 TDs per 15 minutes at 25% — numbers that won’t blow your hair back. We’ve seen her land TDs in numerous fights throughout her career but the main issue for Murphy has always been ground control and struggling to establish positions.

Really the most extensive ground control time I’ve seen from her was in the 2nd round against Wood where she controlled for the large bulk of the round – not that impressive hindsight though if you’re familiar with Wood who only stuffs at 59% and has always conceded ground control time in her career.

However, late TDs in rounds against Lee did end up being the deciding factor for her in the eyes of the judges.

We saw her get her 1st submission win back in 2020 over Shakirova – a girl who hasn’t fought since that fight.

Defensively, she stuffs at 69% which is a good mark and she has only been outwrestled by a handful of girls in her career being Sara McMann, Sijara Eubanks and Valentina Shevchenko – all upper tier ground fighters.

By and large she’s pretty strong against the fence and won’t be easy to take down.

Overall, she’s competent on the floor in both realms but nothing special.

Moura comes from a jiu-jitsu background with that being her first martial art where she reps a brown belt in the discipline.  

Regionally, essentially all her fights had gone the same way. She shoots early, secures her TDs, maintains top positions and finishes girls off.  

For a girl that has a BJJ base, she’s shown some good entries TDs as they’re quick and she really drives through on them. She did flop once off an initial stuff from Ruiz in her debut but was able to use a nice elevator to get on top after that.  

Another thing I like about Moura is her GNP. She uses ground strikes really well to help set up her passes to more dominant positions, but can also just finish with them generally – I believe all five of her KO/TKO wins have come via positional TKOs.  

She also doesn’t force passes, which I like in the sense that she takes what her opponents give to her, but has been strong from the back as well to finish with RNCs which consist of all her sub victories.  

All of this does need to be put under the caveat that she hasn’t fought a murderer’s row of competition but that’s to be expected for a girl that’s only been fighting professionally for a little over three years with 12 pro fights. 

But she struggled in her debut with Gomes, going 5/26 on TDs while racking up 6.5 minutes of control – although a good chunk of that control came against the fence in her trying to pursue the TD.

Despite what I said before in liking her entries, they didn’t look great in that fight especially when Moura got more tired – she didn’t really show any diversity outside of doubles and singles which were largely stuffed by Gomes.

But she was able to get the better of Hardy last time out on the floor, securing the first two rounds and decision win.

Overall, Gomes wasn’t an easy debut and it’s justifiable slowing down given the grueling nature of that fight shooting 26 shots. But it leaves me with some benchmarking issues with her now because the girls she was having her way with prior weren’t very good. Nonetheless, she still has a game that’s going to translate to success at the UFC level.

How it plays out: This is where the fight favors Moura as we know she’s going to be proactive in looking to get this fight to the ground and the ground is how Murphy’s traditionally lost fights throughout her career. But as noted above, I do think it’s important to contextualize the girls that have outgrappled her, coupled with that Murphy’s shown some TDD evolution in the latter portions of her career at flyweight. So, I’m not really sold that Moura’s going to have an “easy” time taking Murphy down necessarily. Nonetheless, she still has a large chunk of the upside here and is live to get Murphy out of there should she find positions – GNP is far more likely than a SUB though.

This fight’s a little more interesting to me than it is for most simply because I don’t think Murphy is “drawing dead” and I can see iterations where the fight actually plays competitively. But the spot is obviously super bearish for Murphy given her layoff, age and impending retirement. We know how these types of fights go the majority of the time and that’s with the younger fighter getting their hand raised so Moura will be my pick.

—

On DraftKings, Moura is now priced up to 9.5k as a -650 favorite which is hilarious to me because she was the underdog to Veronica Hardy for most of the week during her last bout.

That was one of my biggest bets of the past year, and although Moura won fairly easily, I have my concerns.

Primarily, what I liked about Moura is that she had just attempted 26 takedowns in a close loss to Gomes, in what was an exhausting affair. Hardy isn’t very strong on the mat and I knew Moura would be able to get her down. Moura only attempted four takedowns against Hardy though, and although it led to three successful takedowns and enough control to win two rounds, it’s simply not enough.

Especially given how poor Moura is on the feet, I have major concerns now. Moura literally did not attempt a takedown in round three against Hardy and was outstruck 21-9 which is pathetic. She also only attempted a takedown in the last 30 seconds of the first round, and was outstruck there 13-10 despite her landing the bigger shots which got her the nod.

I do think Moura is a quality grappler, but there is MAJOR risk in my mind for her to lose striking based rounds, and she has shown to be generally green and inconsistent.

Now facing Lauren Murphy, I do think Moura can land takedowns. Murphy in a retirement fight is a pretty bearish scenario and perhaps she just looks bad, and gets easily finished on the mat.

Murphy has fought way better competition than Moura for the past decade though, and Murphy has shown the ability to land 80+ significant strikes which Moura cannot. If Moura doesn’t wrestle urgently here, I think she loses this fight to a more seasoned and higher output striker in Murphy. And I think the betting line should be much closer based on Moura’s inconsistent game planning.

At 9.5k, I still don’t mind playing Moura. I consider her relatively grappling dependent which should give her a strong floor in a win. But as we just saw against Hardy, Moura can grapple to a win and put up 66 points. She probably needs a finish to be optimal which really scares me.

Moura is only +230 to win ITD which is a major concern. I think part of her upside ties into Murphy’s form, ultimately, which is tough to predict. But also, if we get a quick takedown and a RNC, that doesn’t equate to a massive ceiling either. So I think we need several takedowns or a ground-and-pound based stoppage for Moura to see a ceiling, like what we got in her debut that scored 128 DK points.

I don’t want to recommend avoiding Moura because grapplers score well and I think Moura will have success grappling here if she wins. But I am extremely nervous about this being a real step up in competition from an experience standpoint, and I also think Moura’s inconsistent game planning puts her at risk of losing outright.

Murphy at 6.7k is viable to me as a low-end punt.

The problem really is that she isn’t likely to score many points in a win. And she’s also a huge dog with a +900 ITD line. Based on those things, you can still fade Murphy.

As noted, I do think she can win a striking based matchup, but that would still probably only look like 60-80 significant strikes landed, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she only saw 60 points in a decision win. You can argue it’s just not worth the risk of playing a dog this big.

I won’t have much exposure to Murphy, but I think she is a bit sneaky and live for the upset here, despite the ugly nature of her retirement bout. Perhaps a sprinkle is worthwhile at 6.7k but she’s likely not worth investing much more than that.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Moura by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Valter Walker

Fight Odds: Nzechukwu -203, Walker +171

Odds to end ITD: -140

DraftKings Salaries: Nzechukwu 8.8k, Walker 7.4k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Having won two straight fights in the heavyweight division, it seems Kennedy Nzechukwu has found a new weight class and he will have a chance to make it three in a row when he takes on Valter Walker this weekend.

To be fair, Kennedy has beaten two bums in Chris Barnett and Lukasz Brzeski so I am still not sold on him at heavyweight, and I still can’t get that decision loss of his to OSP out of my head. We will see how Kennedy progresses though.

I remember being pleasantly surprised by the development of Kennedy in his fight vs Karl Roberson. Kennedy had never landed (and hasn’t since) a takedown in his career but landed five takedowns against Roberson and just destroyed him on the mat. I know Roberson is not a good defensive grappler, but I actually thought Kennedy showed decent control and usage of his physicality on the mat. It is at least another potential path to victory for him going forward especially against below-average grapplers.

Kennedy has always shown decent defensive grappling as well and defends takedowns at 81 percent. He still is pretty green and learning, but he honestly has decent TDD and tries hard to scramble up. He isn’t easy to hold down. I generally think he can stop average grapplers in this weight class. He was held down a little bit against Cutelaba but overall he was able to get up.

Usually Kennedy likes to strike in his fights though. He lands 5.37 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.89 in return. I hate that he doesn’t use his reach to his advantage more. He is 6’5” with an 83” reach which is ridiculous. However, he doesn’t really use it to control range or anything. He kind of strikes just relying on pace. He is a bit hittable and only defends strikes at 51 percent. He kind of just tries to stay aggressive and overwhelm his opponents with pace. I wish he was a little more technical and used his reach a bit better.

Kennedy’s style can still work though, and I think he is just a physical guy and has a knack for finding his target. He is still a bit hittable though and has been knocked out before, but I think he is generally a tough guy to deal with. He will likely be knocked out again though based on his defensively irresponsible fighting style.

Kennedy will be taking on Valter Walker. Walker is a Brazilian fighter who is 27 years old and is a towering presence at 6’6” with an 81-inch reach. He is actually the brother of UFC veteran Johnny Walker. He is 12-1 professionally, generally fighting poor competition on the regionals. He is 2-1 in the UFC. His two wins have randomly both come by heel hook in round one against Don’Tale Mayes and Junior Tafa.

Walker is kind of a pressure fighter / grappler. I actually think he has a pretty good double leg for a heavyweight. He is somewhat explosive with his level change and he is capable of landing takedowns and holding top position. His cardio looks okay but not great. I do think he can land takedowns at this level though, especially early in fights. He also just pressures decently to put his opponents close to the cage to make it easier for him to land takedowns. He is landing 4.95 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good.

I still don’t think Walker is that great of a submission grappler though. He only has four submission wins on his resume, and I really think his last two heel hook wins were more of a product of Mayes and Tafa being terrible than anything else. I haven’t seen Walker tested too much as a grappler defensively.

On the feet, Walker can pressure and land some shots in close quarters. He has some decent power in close range. He isn’t a skilled striker though, and I think he is a borderline liability on the feet in extended fights. He lost his UFC debut in a close decision loss to Lukasz Brzeski by losing the striking exchanges. He got outlanded 55-23 at range by Brzeski, and I just thought his striking looked pretty bad.

Overall, Walker just looks like a guy who can probably bully grapple below-average heavyweights in the UFC. He will also just probably be dangerous early in fights in general. I question his ability to strike in extended exchanges though and he doesn’t look like the most technical fighter in the world. I do think his wrestling can win him some fights though.

As far as this matchup goes, this is pretty binary. Outside of a random high-variance knockout landing for Walker, Kennedy should be at a pretty clear advantage on the feet. He honestly may just finish Walker, and I especially think Kennedy can damage Walker more and more throughout the fight as I like Kennedy’s cardio more.

Walker’s best hope is to get this done on the mat. The issue is Kennedy has only been submitted once in his career via triangle to Paul Craig over six years ago. Kennedy also has strong takedown defense and get-ups. I do think Walker can take Kennedy down. However, I question Walker’s ability to submit Kennedy at a high clip or hold him down throughout the duration. I think Kennedy likely survives and gets up.

So I have to go with Kennedy in this matchup. I think Kennedy can minimize the grappling and win this fight on the feet where he has the advantage.

—

On DraftKings, I have interest in this matchup as it feels like a binary one, but there still are some tricky elements.

Nzechukwu is priced at 8.8k and probably needs a knockout, which is the biggest concern I have. I definitely consider him the superior striker. He should land more and his cardio is better, but I also think there’s a very likely chance Walker can extend the fight.

In Walker’s lone UFC loss, he still had wrestling success and only allowed 53 sig. strikes, which means if Nzechukwu follows that route, he may only score 60 DK points in a win. I do think his volume upside is greater than that on paper, but Walker isn’t the type to yield tons of volume and any offensive wrestling success will just limit Nzechukwu further.

So I really think Nzechukwu needs a knockout and I’m just not that confident in that outcome. His best chance probably comes in RD 2/3 which still gives him legitimate hope, but it’s tough to be sure. He’s +140 to win ITD which is decent.

I am willing to play Nzechukwu, but he is a little bit boom or bust and I’m not completely confident in the boom side. Because it’s a binary matchup and Walker may get dog-walked if he fails to wrestle early, you do need some exposure here, but it’s also not a must play given the fight is a near pick’em to go Over 2.5 rounds.

Walker at 7.4k has upside on paper, but I don’t love the matchup for him.

Nzechukwu is big, a dangerous striker, and he won’t accept bottom position. I think Nzechukwu probably survives an early exchange or two and then beats Walker up, so I’m not inclined to shove my exposure in on this play. Especially as Walker may be chalk at this price tag, coming off back-to-back first round finishes.

However, if Walker wins, he will score well and he has tournament winning upside. He’s a decent wrestler, and the dumb fact that he’s been able to score back-to-back heel hooks is honestly probably a good thing in this terrible HW division. I have zero idea if Nzechukwu has ever seen a leg lock in his life, and if Walker goes to it, he might get another tap.

Besides that, I’d guess Walker would need 3-5 takedowns landed and many minutes of control. He landed four in his UFC debut and would have scored in the mid 80s even in a close decision. He’s +325 to win ITD in this fight which is decent for the price.

Walker on paper is a very good tournament target and I will use him as a secondary option on this slate. He has real grappling upside and is very likely to exceed value in a win. Plus, it’s a weak division and Nzechukwu isn’t the most proven grappler.

I am not picking Walker to win though, so I’m not personally excited about being overweight on this spot despite how it looks on paper. He’s still very viable at 7.4k and worth some exposure.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nzechukwu by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Mitch Ramirez vs. Mike Davis

Fight Odds: Davis -1040, Ramirez +692

Odds to end ITD: -190

DraftKings Salaries: Davis 9.8k, Ramirez 6.4k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Mike Davis was a part of one of the original seasons of Contender Series back in 2018 where he dropped his opportunity to Sodiq Yusuff, but got the call-up the following year as a short-notice fill-in, losing to Gilbert Burns. He went on a nice little run but will be looking to rebound from a loss to Fares Ziam back in February – he’s 4-2 in the UFC and 11-3 as a pro. Mitch Ramirez got a crack on the Contender Series a few years back but came up short against Carlos Prates. He went back to the regional scene where he picked up a quick win before getting the call-up last year as a short-notice fill-in spot that he dropped to Thiago Moises – he’s 8-2 as a pro.

The striking component:

Davis comes from a striking background where he went undefeated as a boxer and in muay thai before transitioning to MMA. You really see that on display in his fights (more so the boxing component).   

He will finish combos with kicks on occasion but it’s not a primary part of his game. In doing so, he stands pretty heavy on his lead leg to help put together his combinations which are super tight and of high variety.  As a result though, he’s been susceptible to calf kicks historically.    

He’s also technical in his combinations and really throws with heat, with 7 of his 11 pro wins coming via KO/TKO. The main knock on him for me is his defense.   

Because he doesn’t utilize much lateral movement and likes to fight in the lip of the pocket, he’ll largely rely on slipping punches as his main line of defense like a prototypical boxer. Despite beating the shit out of Gifford, he still ate 88 significant strikes. 

His fight with Jones was an absolute barnburner where he ate 117 significant strikes, and did lose the distance exchanges against Borshchev despite it being competitive. He was also hurt by Yusuff back on DWCS but, by and large, has proven to be durable.   

Overall, he’s potent offensively but his defense still needs a healthy amount of work.

I’m unsure of Ramirez’s official background but he works a more stalking, kickboxing based style. He’ll fight out of both stances but traditionally prefers southpaw.

Five of his eight pro wins come via KO/TKO so he’s displayed some power throughout his career – additionally, three of those finishes have stemmed from kicks to legs, body and head.

But despite his more stalking type of nature, he’s lower output and slow quite frankly. He doesn’t throw in combinations often and isn’t a guy you can project to really go out there and “pace” guys.

I don’t want to say he’s uncomfortable on the feet because that’s not correct but he’s just rigid.

As a result, he’s been very susceptible to straight shots coming back his way from longer opponents – although he hasn’t faced a ton of extensive volume himself.

The best fighter he’s faced was Prates on the Contender Series who just tactically picked him apart and eventually found the kill shot in the 2nd round. But I have seen him buckled on a few other occasions as well – still difficult to call him “chinny” though considering Prates is massive and a historic KO artist.

We didn’t see a ton of distance time in his most recent bout with Moises but he essentially got his leg kicked off and ultimately succumbed in the 3rd round.

Overall, Ramirez is the type that really needs to be in the driver’s seat to realize success but I don’t have much optimism for him on the feet at the UFC level – especially in a deep weight class like 155 lbs.

How it plays out: Despite some of Davis’s defensive issues, he’s not a good style matchup for Ramirez. As noted, Ramirez needs to be in the driver’s seat to have success on the feet and Davis isn’t a guy who’s going to give that to him. He’s the far more technically proficient striker who’s also far quicker and his volume patterns are also more consistent. While Davis hasn’t knocked anyone out in a second, he’s also fought many durable fighters and I think he’s pretty live to put Ramirez down in this spot.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Wrestling was Davis’s first martial art where he competed as a youth and in high school, but didn’t go on to anything collegiately. He also reps a BJJ purple belt.   

But as touched on, Davis largely likes to keep his fights standing but he will go to the wrestling at times. When there, he can be positionally sound and do a good job of riding the back and landing big ground-and-pound from that position.    

He does have a couple submission wins where in the first one, he destroyed some guy’s arm with a kimura back regionally, but he was also a bum – then most recently was able to arm triangle Levy who’s a middling purple belt but a capable ground fighter.

However, he struggles with extensive ground control and does leave lots of space underneath if he’s not in dominant positions. He landed three TDs early on Jones but couldn’t keep him there. He then more recently went 9/11 on Borshchev, racking up eight minutes of control which is ultimately what won him that fight.  

Defensively, he struggled against Gilbert Burns who’s one of the more credentialled black belts in the UFC (one of the toughest debut’s I’ve ever seen). Not to mention, it wasn’t like Davis was “insta-sub” in that fight either.   

He lasted on the ground for quite a long time and made a decent account of himself all things considered before getting submitted later in the 2nd (he did make some mistakes and gave his back on one occasion though). He’s coming off ultimately losing the grappling exchanges to Ziam but Ziam’s made huge strides in that department.    

Overall, Davis is a capable offensive wrestler with good entries, but you can’t always trust him to wrestle and he may continue to have some struggles with more scrambly guys. 

Ramirez is a BJJ purple belt and a semi-capable offensive wrestler.

I wasn’t able to find any of his pro submission wins but wrestling was a factor in his decision win over Correa and taking some minutes from Holloway. Similar to his striking, he’s relatively slow in terms of his entries but is physically strong and can dump guys that he gets in on.

But he hasn’t been particularly active in throwing ground strikes or passing in the fights I’ve seen.

Defensively, he hadn’t been on shot much regionally but he’s coming off getting outgrappled by Moises – Moises went 2/2 on TDs, racking up 6.5 minutes of control – Moises is a tough debut in fairness and he didn’t get subbed which is a positive take away but he still didn’t really offer much.

He took Prates down on Contender Series and got a bit of control time but also got elevator swept and worked up to the feet shortly after. That’s about all there is to say with Ramirez at this point.

How it plays out: If I had to guess, Ramirez will probably try to wrestle here where I don’t think it’s out of the realm for him to take Davis down. However, I don’t see him holding Davis down or submitting him as the guys that have outgrappled him have far superior top games in comparison to Ramirez. You could say similar things on the other side in comparing Davis to Moises but I still think Davis is the better ground fighter here should he solidify positions.

I’ve always been a Mike Davis fan as he’s a solid athlete and a good fighter but has really struggled making it to the cage with all of the injuries he’s suffered over the years – it’s nice to see him getting a quicker turnaround for once. On the flip side, Ramirez isn’t a UFC level fighter and really has no business being here. Mike Davis is the all-around better fighter. The booking seems somewhat deliberate from the UFC to get Davis back in the win column – Ramirez will probably be fed to prospects next until his contract expires. Davis should put him away.

—

On DraftKings, Davis is priced up accordingly at 9.8k and will be difficult to pay up for at that number.

However, unlike Kline who is priced above him, Davis does have decent finishing metrics in this matchup and sits at -155 to win ITD which is fairly solid. If he can secure a finish, Davis will have a shot to contend for the optimal, but I still don’t consider that an easy task.

This one is tough for me because I am a huge Mike Davis fan. But he hasn’t fought many times over the years and is coming off his worst-looking performance to date against Ziam, who is a decent prospect, but I still didn’t love the optics for Davis in that matchup.

Sure, Davis on paper is the better striker. He should throw at higher volumes. He has more submission grappling upside as well. I’m not sure I fully trust him to put it all together but I do think he’s the rightful favorite.

I have mixed feelings. Ramirez has been knocked down in both of his UFC/DWCS matchups and he was finished in both. He can be taken down. Davis clearly has some finishing upside, and Davis can also fight at a high pace. I do think there’s a scenario where Davis just pushes a pace and can find an early finish, and that would be ideal from a fantasy standpoint.

I also think there’s a very real chance this fight extends. Ramirez has enough wrestling/grappling in his game to potentially fend off some shots, or perhaps Davis won’t even come into this bout looking to grapple. Purely on the feet, I wouldn’t be as comfortable with Davis scoring an early knockout, and that would also limit him from a ceiling standpoint.

Basically, I think Davis has a pretty solid floor in a win, but I’m less sure that he will hit a ceiling. We’ve seen a couple of smash performances where Davis topped 130, but I don’t really believe he’s likely to replicate those against Ramirez. Otherwise, Davis has scored 92 and 90 in his wins which is solid, but not enough to be optimal at 9.8k.

Just based on the price tag, I lean against playing a lot of Davis this week. If he projected to be higher owned than Kline, for example, I’d probably rather take fliers on Kline who I think could look more dominant on the mat. It’s not that I hate Davis and I do think he has finishing upside, but 9.8k is very expensive and I wouldn’t mind pivoting off or paying down further on the majority of lineups.

Ramirez at 6.4k is not a great play on paper.

He’s a massive underdog at +680 to win and he only carries an ITD line of +700. I do think he’s a better play than Martinez below him, for what it’s worth, as he has some wrestling and power and Davis can be hit and taken down. I don’t think it’s likely Ramirez wins, but Davis is also aging and has injuries, so there’s a little more variance at play in my opinion.

Like Martinez, I’d expect Ramirez to be super low owned and probably in the 5-8 percent range, which is enough to consider a very small sprinkle in large fields. However, I’d still much prefer to pay up for real win equity, and with a limited portfolio, I will lean against having much or any exposure to Ramirez.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Davis by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)

Fatima Kline vs. Melissa Martinez

Fight Odds: Kline -1261, Martinez +793

Odds to end ITD: -135

DraftKings Salaries: Kline 9.9k, Martinez 6.3k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

It looks like Fatima Kline is trying to be built up by the UFC as she is getting another fight here as a monster favorite against Melissa Martinez. Her last matchup was also as a huge favorite against Viktoriia Dudakova where she won via ground-and-pound in the second round.

Kline has one loss which was in her UFC debut, where she fought up a weight class on a few days notice against an extremely difficult opponent and style matchup in Jasmine Jasuduvicius. I forgive Kline for that loss. The wrestling, size, and physicality of Jasmine was just a bit too much for Kline who was taken down a few times and controlled for about seven minutes. Kline did land a takedown herself and had some moments on the feet, and got the better of the striking but she was just a bit overmatched.

Kline still looks like a solid prospect, and I am excited to see her in her own weight class on regular camps.

Kline is 7-1 professionally and was the double champ at strawweight and flyweight in Cage Fury FC, a decent regional promotion. None of her MMA fights before her UFC debut were competitive, and she just dominated opponents as she was just so much more talented than her competition.

Kline is a BJJ black belt and has a ton of experience in submission grappling. She is clearly a strong BJJ player and submission grappler. Furthermore, her double leg and offensive wrestling are quite strong and she has been easily taking down opponents in MMA whenever she wants. I definitely think she can continue having success grappling in the UFC. I also just like her cardio as well and she seems like a good athlete. She even took Jasmine down once which was impressive.

Although Kline is mostly credentialed as a grappler, her striking looks strong too. She looks to land body kicks and straight punches. She controls range very well and also just seems accurate. She also switches stances well. I honestly think she might be a very solid striker. My eyes like what they see.

Kline’s defensive wrestling looks pretty strong too. She was obviously taken down and controlled by Jasmine, but again Jasmine is a better wrestler and way bigger than the opponents Kline will fight going forward. I still thought Kline looked competent against Jasmine as a defensive wrestler at times. Her TDD and scrambling ability also looked good against Dudakova.

Kline is just a solid prospect. I think she can outgrapple many fighters in the UFC and probably have striking success as well. I think she is going to make her way to the top 5 of strawweight personally, but only time will tell.

Kline will be taking on Melissa Martinez. Martinez is a Mexican fighter who is 8-1 professionally and is 27 years old. She is 1-1 in the UFC with her win coming by decision to Alice Ardelean, and her loss coming by decision to Elise Reed.

Martinez is basically a moderately skilled striker and moreso a boxer. She is okay. She lands 3.90 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.33 in return. She is nothing special, but she is tough and can mildly strike skillfully for 15 minutes. She also has a little pop for a female fighter as well.

Martinez doesn’t grapple often. She landed a takedown against Elise Reed but I don’t see offensive wrestling being a real path to victory at this level unless it comes against a very bad fighter.

Martinez is defending takedowns at 25 percent in a small sample size and they all came in round three against Elise Reed where Martinez surrendered three takedowns. I didn’t like the TDD by Martinez showed there. However, she did at least try to work up and did get up. She had the right idea. I think her overall bottom game is still a little untested. It wasn’t a good sign that Reed was taking her down as Reed is a poor wrestler. My guess is Martinez can be exploited there.

As far as this matchup goes, there is a pretty solid chance that Kline can just dominate Martinez on the mat. I still don’t think Martinez’s get-up game looks horrible. However, Kline is the best grappler Martinez has fought and this legitimately could be a mismatch on the mat. The grappling upside alone is enough to favor Kline.

Furthermore, even if Martinez negates the grappling of Kline, Kline may just be a better striker here. I honestly would favor Kline standing. So I really think Kline has Martinez covered everywhere and is the rightful favorite in this matchup.

My guess is Kline strikes a bit but eventually mixes in grappling to pull away. I really respect Kline on the mat so a finish is also possible.

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On DraftKings, as much as I’d like to play Kline, I’m not sure I can pay up to her for 9.9k.

It’s simply an expensive price tag, and as we’ve noted on recent slates, fighters of this price tier are just not mathematically likely to be optimal at a high rate. However, Kline will still rate out extremely well for safety as a -1200 favorite, and she still has a strong ceiling as well.

I care more about the ceiling for tournament purposes and that’s the tricker part to analyze. Kline is coming off a ground based finish which did score 117 DK points, and a repeat of that could possibly have her contend for the optimal lineup.

The biggest movement we’ve seen on this fight this week has actually been the ITD metrics. The overall ITD line moved from +100 to -135, as did Kline’s ITD line. I think it’s the correct move honestly, and I do give Kline a realistic shot at winning inside the distance.

I just look at how Martinez was easily taken down by Reed and I do think if Kline gets on top, she could find dominant positions and potentially pull off the sub. But even in that kind of victory we aren’t guaranteed a ceiling. Having it come in the final minute of round two was probably ideal like we saw in Kline’s last matchup. An early RD 1 or RD 2 finish may only get her in the 100-110 range, which I doubt would be enough.

But man, Kline should very likely be shooting takedowns here and she probably will get them. With a finish, I’d expect a strong score. There’s just also potential for her to strike comfortably as well and extend the fight, and ultimately, her finishing metrics are weak for this kind of price.

It simply makes Kline not a priority at 9.9k. If I can afford her, sure I will consider plugging her in. I don’t mind having some exposure to Kline and I sort of prefer her to Davis. But my guess is that I won’t be able to pay up very often and there are also a few viable pivots in this upper tier as well.

So Kline is a strong safety option this week with reasonable upside, but she’ll fall more into the secondary category as she’s quite difficult to fit.

Martinez at 6.3k doesn’t interest me.

In theory, maybe she could win a close, striking based decision. Kline has also given up takedowns in both of her matchups, but Martinez doesn’t really wrestle offensively much.

I just don’t see a real ceiling with Martinez and obviously she’s a massive underdog at +750 to win and +1500 to win ITD.

Yes, she’ll be 5 percent owned or so in large-fields but I’d just rather target dogs with more win equity and more upside on paper. So with a more limited portfolio, I lean toward fading Martinez.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kline by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=High)

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira (7/12/25)