UFC Fight Night: Maddalena vs. Prates (5/2/26)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates

Fight Odds: Prates -115, Maddalena -105

Odds to end ITD: -215

DraftKings Salaries: Prates 8.2k, Maddalena 8k

Weight Class: 170

We have an incredible top contender matchup in the welterweight division between strikers Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates. I’m kind of frustrated this fight will be taking place at 3am in Australia but it is what it is.

Maddalena is coming off losing his championship belt to Islam Makhachev – no shame in that – though Makhachev dominated him from bell to bell and controlled him for nearly 20 minutes.

Prior to that, Maddalena took the belt from Belal Muhammad in what was a high-action affair. Maddalena stuffed a few takedowns and landed 178 significant strikes to win the decision.

Maddalena skyrocketed up the welterweight rankings after winning on the Contender Series in 2021, and he picked up eight consecutive victories before falling to Makhachev last November.

Maddalena is a high volume boxer and a really quality striker. He lands 5.57 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.84 per minute with a 63 percent defensive rate. He is quick and can attack multiple levels. He has good pacing and good cardio.

He also can knock you dead, and he’s earned four knockout wins along the way which includes three in the first round.

I’ve always been concerned about his defensive grappling, and was on Makhachev heavily in that last loss. Maddalena defends takedowns at 64 percent and can be put in vulnerable positions. He obviously survived five rounds with Makhachev but his defensive wrestling is an issue.

I don’t think he’ll need to be too concerned in this next matchup against Carlos Prates who prefers to stand and trade.

Like Maddalena, Prates has skyrocketed up the rankings after winning on the Contender Series in 2023. He’s won six of his seven fights since entering the UFC, and all six have come by knockout.

Prates is a really dangerous boxer with legit knockout power, and he’s shown to be very creative with his finishing techniques. He can throw big knees and he can spin. He can put you out cold.

I’ve been much lower on Prates than the public and I’ve paid for it in some regard, but one problem I’ve had with Prates is that he’s too reliant on damage. Prates has not yet won a fight in which he’s failed to knock his opponent down.

He was near even money against Ian Garry in their main event in 2025, and fortunately I made a bunch of money back there betting against Prates, and betting on Garry who is a higher paced striker.

Prates did have some late success and looked to have a shot to finish the fight, but he was largely outclassed for five rounds and could not keep up with the volume and evasive footwork of Garry. Prates shockingly only landed 63 strikes in five rounds, and absorbed 126 in return.

I’ll get right into the matchup analysis side of things because I honestly don’t see why Prates is a favorite in this spot over Maddalena. I think arguing that the fight should be lined competitively, as we may get high-variance striking exchanges is totally reasonable, but there’s no way I’d come out with a clean pick on Prates in this matchup.

Maddalena is just better than Prates from a process standpoint and in the metrics that I care about.

Maddalena throws so much more volume than Prates. At distance, Maddalena lands 7.4 strikes per minute while absorbing 5.33 per minute for a +2.07 ratio, according to MMA Labs. Prates lands 4.47 per minute, while absorbing 5.52 for a -1.05 ratio.

Maddalena defends strikes at 63 percent, and Prates defends strikes at 47 percent. Maddalena defends head strikes at 71 percent while Prates defends head strikes at 59 percent.

In 16 tracked rounds, Prates has exceeded 25 sig strikes landed two times. In 21 tracked rounds (I’m excluding the Makhachev fight), Maddalena has exceeded 25 strikes 16 times.

Before you make the argument about power and knockout ability, it’s actually Prates who has been knocked out more times than Maddalena (2-1 with none since 2017, so it matters little, but still).

Plus, Maddalena is getting this fight at home in Australia while Prates is traveling across the world, which I think is a slight but possibly real advantage for Maddalena.

I’m fully aware Prates has the capability to knock anyone out, and maybe he can pull it off here. But in terms of capping a percentage, I don’t think it’s anywhere close to 50 percent likely. And how often is Prates winning a decision? I think he can do it but the metrics and strongly pointing in favor of Maddalena if this goes five rounds.

If Prates had the ability to shake things up and land a takedown, that could sway me a bit. But he lands 0.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and I don’t think wrestling will be part of his game plan.

I think we may see some competitive rounds here, and I think Prates may have a couple of big moments. Maybe he can win by knockout. But I think Maddalena is equally likely to have some big moments, and I simply trust him to throw more strikes otherwise and keep busier. In Australia over five rounds, I think Maddalena is more likely to win a decision.

Volume doesn’t mean everything of course, and this is the last thing I’ll say about the topic, but in order to land punches, you need to throw them, and Prates just doesn’t throw that many strikes. He attempted 129 strikes over five rounds against Garry while Maddalena attempted 342 against Belal. Can Prates do more? Sure, he’s capable of it but until he proves it, it’s hard for me to bet on.

I think there are a lot of potential outcomes in a matchup like this but I’ll take Maddalena to be the more consistent striker over five rounds and pick up the win.

—

On DraftKings, I assume this fight will get a lot of attention in the mid-range though I don’t think it’s as straightforward as you might expect.

For starters, neither fighter is likely to wrestle much, which means we’re betting on significant strikes and a knockout. The knockout is definitely in play, but the odds are only -215 to end inside the distance and I’d personally lean toward the fight extending.

On the volume side, I just angrily wrote about how Prates doesn’t throw strikes in the matchup column, so if he wins an extended fight, what does that look like? He would have scored 58 DK points in a win over Garry.

I honestly don’t plan on playing much Prates at 8.2k. I suppose you can argue he’s still a good play because his win condition is rooted in damage and therefore in a win, it’s likely to come via early knockout.

But I really don’t see the early knockout as a high percentage outcome. Even if I say 20 percent of the time he wins by knockout, which feels like a lot, I’d be pretty worried about what this fight looks like if it extends.

Prates has also won by second round knockout twice, and scored 89 and 95 DK points in those wins. At 8.2k, is that optimal? Possibly but not for sure.

There’s a real question whether Prates can be optimal if he doesn’t win by first round KO, and if you only think of it in that context, he’s a pretty terrible play at chalk in my opinion.

With that said, what the fuck do I know. These guys are probably going to try and kill each other and Prates is very dangerous. There’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges. He’s favored to win the fight and he’s +135 to win ITD.

I’d consider Prates a fine secondary upside option personally. I’d be perfectly willing to play him in the mid 20s percent ownership range in hopes of the early KO. Assuming he comes in near 40 percent ownership, I’d rather be underweight.

Maddalena is priced at 8k and is my preferred target. Even outside of my personal opinion of the matchup, Maddalena is much more likely to hit even if the fight extends.

We’ve already seen Maddalena win a five round decision in which he scored 106 DK points, and he also has finishing equity here too at +195 ITD. I still don’t think it’s a guarantee though.

Garry scored well against Prates over five rounds but in part due to the grappling side. Without takedowns, Garry would have only scored in the 85 point range.

I do like that Maddalena has options though. He could win by early or late knockout. Or he could win by decision and land enough strikes to clear 95-100 DK points. There is still a chance he simply lands 120-140 sig strikes over five rounds and scores in the 80s.

I would honestly build a portion of my portfolio to fade this fight in large fields, if I had a lot of lineups to work with. We’ll probably see the field on this fight around 80 percent, and perhaps that’s the right call. 20 percent of lineups that fade the fight feels reasonable enough.

I have a mild lean toward Maddalena from a matchup standpoint, as well as from a fantasy standpoint, so he’s my preferred play. Maybe that will look more like a moderate stand once I build out lineups fully. Mixing in Prates for the KO upside is still viable and I also like fading the fight in a chunk of lineups in case the fight extends.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Maddalena by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkild

Fight Odds: Salkilld -400, Dariush +300

Odds to end ITD: -500

DraftKings Salaries: Salkilld 9.4k, Dariush 6.8k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Coming off one of the most brutal knockouts in recent memory and then a quick submission in his last matchup, Quillan Salkilld is looking to create more violent moments in the Octagon this weekend against Beneil Dariush. This is a step up in competition for Salkilld and I think this is a very interesting matchup.

Salkilld’s knockout by head kick on Nasrat was truly insane. I am pretty immune to UFC violence at this point and my jaw dropped. It was a brutal knockout.

Salkilld is an Australian fighter who is 11-1 professionally. He has won his first five UFC affiliated fights.

I think Salkilld is strongest as a pace grappler. In his two UFC decisions against Gauge Young and Yanal Ashmouz, he landed 9 of 22 and 8 of 23 takedowns attempted respectively. I do love that pace.

I do think Salkilld is a mildly skilled wrestler but he definitely lacks some technique and efficiency in his takedowns, and I do think he lacks physicality in certain positions. I don’t think he will outwrestle the higher tiers of this division. 

However, Salkilld is super tenacious and he will absolutely beat low to mid level tiers of this division with his pace grappling. He has a decent double leg and uses a lot of tall man techniques to take the back. He can ride the back with clasped hands and can also put hooks in and threaten with submissions. He is a bit sloppy though and can fall off from top position at times though. He also tired out a bit against Ashmouz and started getting tuned up a bit in round 3.

As a striker, Salkilld is competent but not great. He can land some decent kicks and some straight punches. He isn’t bad. He obviously showed some danger vs Nasrat but I am not sure I project him as a huge knockout finisher. He outlanded a mildly okay striker in Gauge Young 70-57 at range. However, he still keeps his chin in the air and can get landed on clean. I do think he is going to get knocked out by more physical and faster strikers.

Still though, Salkilld attempts a ton of takedowns and is a mildly skilled grappler so he should be able to secure wins. He also seems tough and can strike a bit too.

Salkilld will be taking on UFC veteran Beneil Dariush. Beneil Dariush is a fantastic technical fighter. He is good at everything and just has a ton of skills. As a striker, Dariush is solid. He lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.62 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 57 percent.

Dariush mixes in a vast array of punches and kicks. He also hits pretty hard and I consider him a bit underrated from a power standpoint.

Dariush is also a very skilled submission grappler and wrestler. He lands 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a great takedown artist and top position player. He also has submissions in his game as well. He is also a world class defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at 82 percent and is excellent at scrambling and getting back to his feet. His defensive grappling performance against Mateusz Gamrot was a treat to watch.

Although I am talking up Dariush right now, I am just so concerned about his age and durability at this point. He isn’t THAT old. He is 36 so I don’t think he is biologically out of his physical prime. I just think he has been in wars and is old in fighting years. He is definitely not the Dariush from a few years ago.

I still want to point out that Dariush has still won 9 of his last 12 fights lol. His 3 losses have been to Benoit Saint Denis and Arman Tsarukyan who quickly knocked him out, and Charles Oliveira who knocked him out early as well. It’s like I understand to a degree there are concerns with Dariush’s form. However, who on the lightweight roster is even capable of winning 1 fight against those three? Dariush also just beat Renato Moicano less than a year ago who completely dominated Chris Duncan recently.

So I am actually not going to completely write off Dariush, and I actually think this line is wide.

I understand why Salkilld is favored. Dariush is definitely past his prime and doesn’t take a punch super well anymore. Salkilld’s youth may just carry him to a win. He may just knock Dariush dead early or Dariush may just look completely washed and get owned.

However, Salkilld really isn’t even someone I profile as a knockout artist. I know Salkilld killed Nasrat, but other than that I never looked at him like he is some huge one strike knockout guy.

I actually mostly profile Salkilld as a grappler, and am I confident he has offensive grappling success against Dariush? Honestly, not at all. No one has really had success wrestling Dariush and Dariush just outwrestled Moicano by landing 5 takedowns to 0 and out controlling Moicano 6 minutes to 1. There honestly is a chance Dariush has more offensive wrestling success here than Salkilld. So I am just not so sure this is an easy win for Salkilld. If Salkilld doesn’t just knock Dariush dead, I am not sure the fight is easy for him as his wrestling path may be limited.

So I actually think this line is probably wide. Maybe Dariush just looks washed, but again I have a feeling this will be a little more competitive than the line indicates and Dariush outperforming expectations seems super realistic. 

I will still pick Salkilld because of youth and because I just get nervous with Dariush when he is in extended striking exchanges. However, I think Dariush will put up a fight.

—

On DraftKings, this is a tough one given the matchup analysis.

To make Tim’s case more clear, I actually picked Dariush to beat Charles Oliveira and Benoit Saint-Denis, that’s how highly I think of him. He is an elite fighter and an elite grappler, with good technique and fight IQ.

I can brush aside the Oliveira and Tsarukyan losses but the BSD loss was bad. Dariush legitimately took one punch in 16 seconds, and it was from in close. It wasn’t even that hard. And he just crumpled to the mat face first. 

That’s now four fights in a row he’s been knocked down, and three times he’s brutally knocked out. And that doesn’t include the 2-3 other times he’s been brutally KOd earlier in his UFC career.

I completely agree with Tim on the matchup analysis side of things. Salkilld doesn’t even profile as a knockout artist, and I think Dariush is the better grappler outright. Maybe Salkilld could still win a decision but I think it would be very competitive, and if Dariush survives, I think he could win outright.

The problem is that he might not survive the first punch, let alone 15 minutes of strikes.

Salkilld is priced at 9.4k, and is -300 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate. He’ll be chalk. I think he could be an outright priority and if he wins, my guess is it’s a round one KO.

Malkoun is another great option, who I consider more safe than Salkilld, but he’s more expensive. I consider Rahiki safer to win with similar knockout equity, though that finish may not come immediately. Although I think Salkilld has a much greater chance to lose than Malkoun at least, you can argue Salkilld is the outright priority of the two because of his chance to win by quick KO. They all might win by quick KO.

If Salkilld cannot win by quick KO then this could be a tough fight for him and he surely won’t be optimal. So you can still play some Malkoun and Rahiki ahead of him, and prioritize mid-range builds. There’s so many good finishing options in the mid-range.

There’s just so much variance in situations like this, so I don’t consider Salkilld a lock at all. But based on Dariush’s last fight specifically, I do think the most likely outcome is an early KO for Salkilld and so I’ll probably end up with moderate exposure.

Dariush is priced at 6.8k and I think he’s a viable punt.

Sometimes I think these cheap punts are worth a stab, sometimes not. I could make a case for Durden and Luque who came through, although I wasn’t high on them specifically. I don’t see much of a point to targeting Meerschaert for example.

Dariush, I can make the case for. If you assume nobody gets knocked out, Dariush could win striking exchanges, and he probably will win wrestling exchanges. It should be a competitive fight.

I don’t think Dariush has tremendous upside in this kind of matchup, and he’s obviously a big dog and only +550 to win ITD. There are plenty of live underdogs on this slate so I’d strongly prefer to pay up.

If you just have a few lineups to work with, I wouldn’t include Dariush. If you are max entering large field contests, I think he’s worth a small sprinkle.

I’m past the point of hoping Dariush survives and closer to the point of hoping he retires. I don’t really want to see this fight. But if his chin randomly holds up I think we’ll get a competitive fight from him.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Salkilld by KO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg

Fight Odds: Erceg -220, Elliott +185

Odds to end ITD: +170

DraftKings Salaries: Erceg 9.3k, Elliott 6.9k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a battle between long time UFC veteran Tim Elliott and home favorite Steve Erceg.

Erceg is an Australian fighter who is 13-4 professionally. He has a ton of experience and has main evented in a few 5 round fights against the top fighters in this weight class. He was honestly a better decision away from winning the title against Alexandre Pantoja. Erceg decided to engage in a grappling exchange in round 5 that ultimately cost him the title.

The success hasn’t come without some bumps though. Erceg was knocked out cold in round one by Kai Kara-France a couple of years ago. He also lost a competitive decision to Brandon Moreno in a main event spot.

Erceg is coming off a win against Ode Osbourne. However, I did think he looked off in that performance.

Erceg stands at 5’8” and has a decently long frame for flyweight. He is a decent striker with a solid 1-2 and straight punching. He also has mildly sneaky power and has a few knockout wins in his career. Erceg also has decent volume and will throw pretty aggressively at times. He uses his range decently too. He does keep his head straight up, but he is tough and rolls with shots well. I think he is a formidable striker and boxer. He lands 4.00 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.79 which is decent given his competition levels.

Erceg is also a decent grappler. He lands 1.15 takedowns per 15 minutes. I actually think Erceg is a decent wrestler and grappler and is a sneaky back taker who is submission capable. He will look to mix in his wrestling if the striking isn’t going his way. He can be taken down and has 62 percent TDD but he is a capable scrambler and is competent on the mat. I do wish he was more physical though.

Erceg will be taking on Tim Elliott who is coming off a dominant win against Kai Asakura in August of last year.

We all know Tim Elliott. He is a workmanlike grappler and has the ability to land a lot of takedowns. He lands 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and will wrestle hard for a full fight. He also attempts over 7 takedowns per 15 minutes which I like, and he has been wrestling urgently in fights lately and has won 6 of his last 8 fights against decent competition. 

Elliott can also float on top and control opponents and land ground-and-pound. I like Elliott’s grappling personally and he can absolutely wreck weak grapplers.

Elliott isn’t a great striker. He actually lands 3.37 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.65 in return and defends strikes at 57 percent all of which is good. He still just isn’t very dangerous standing though, and I get nervous when he strikes. He is awkward though and is tough to land clean on and makes life difficult for his opponents. He is also underrated tough and has never been knocked out in his career. I trust Elliott most when he is grappling though and he generally goes to it.

I still want to point out that Elliott does do better on the feet than he gets credit for. He isn’t easily going to win fights there but he can remain competitive with his awkward style.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think the original -400 line for Erceg was too wide. I think this is a more competitive fight than that.

On the feet, I do favor Erceg and ultimately that is why I am picking Erceg to win. I think he is the more skillful and dangerous boxer and my guess is he will get the better of the exchanges. I still could see the striking being more competitive than people think though as Erceg sometimes doesn’t land a ton and Elliott is awkward and spams strikes with his random bursts. 

I also do think Elliott can take Erceg down. I doubt Elliott dominates Erceg on the mat. I think Erceg can defend some takedowns and scramble up. However, I could just see there being stretches of Erceg mildly winning striking exchanges and Elliott landing a takedown in the middle of the round making the round anyone’s round. So I am a bit skeptical of the line.

Overall though, I do think Erceg will land bigger shots on the feet and likely more consistently as well. So I will pick Erceg to minimize the grappling enough and win with the more effective striking.

—

On DraftKings, I think we’ll see more of a conversation on Elliott at 6.9k.

He is coming off back-to-back wins that scored 97 and 106, and Erceg has looked pretty shaky as of late. I think the public will be willing to play Elliott and his betting line has improved throughout the week.

I have mixed feelings. For those who have followed us for a while, you’ll know I’m a big fan of Elliott and the president of the Timasochists fan club. However, I don’t have much confidence in him at this stage of his career.

In this particular matchup, I could see some grappling success. I think he can land 2-3 takedowns. I am not sure he can do much with it, and we’ve already seen Erceg survive 9 takedowns from Pantoja, so betting on an Elliott sub feels thin. Elliott is only +550 to win ITD.

At the price tag, sure. Elliott at 6.9k feels cheap and I think he’ll be squarely in the cash game conversation. He’s also viable purely to save salary. I don’t think he’s a phenomenal play though and if he’s going to be chalky, I’d rather pay up personally.

I like Elliott as a low-end target at the price tag but there are half a dozen, boom/bust HW fights that are heavily projected to end ITD in the mid-range, and I think it’s more important to prioritize mid-range constructions where there are the most clear paths to big ceilings.

Erceg is priced up to 9.3k and is closer to a fade.

I think he needs a knockout. Elliott is only allowing 84 DK points per loss which is not a whole lot, and he’s never been knocked out.

It’s not that Erceg can’t produce points, but this fight is -210 to go the distance and Erceg is +240 to win ITD. I’d strongly prefer to play Malkoun, Salkilld and Rahiki for finishing equity.

Erceg is only a contrarian play in my opinion. I think he’ll be owned in the low teens, so he’s a place to be different if you want it. It just seems like the most likely outcome is a competitive, striking based decision which gives him a thin path to separate himself at this price tag.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Erceg by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid

Fight Odds: Rahiki -500, Schmid +375

Odds to end ITD: NA

DraftKings Salaries: NA (Projected Rahiki 9.5k, Schmid 6.7k)

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a massive change to the UFC Perth card as Jack Jenkins was forced to withdraw, but we still have a fun matchup here as newcomer Ollie Schmid steps in on four days’ notice to face Marwan Rahiki.

Rahiki is from Morocco and moved to Australia as a teenager to pursue kickboxing and MMA. He is 8-0 professionally, mostly overwhelming his opponents with his aggressive kickboxing by first or second round knockout.

Rahiki is primarily recognized for his aggressive, high-volume striking style rooted in his kickboxing background. He utilizes a diverse array of kicks and precise boxing to overwhelm opponents, often maintaining a relentless pace. I do like his offensive striking. He uses a ton of kicks to the body, legs and head and puts up a crazy pace.

My issue with Rahiki is his defensive striking. In his Contender Series fight, he was knocked down twice and nearly finished. He absorbed a ton of strikes. Rahiki can surely dish it out but he does get hit a lot, and he has some development needs in his striking defense. He looked a bit better in his UFC debut against Hardwick, but he still absorbed 65 significant strikes and was cracked quite a bit.

I also think Rahiki can probably be exposed on the mat. He doesn’t look like a terrible grappler, but he looks green to me and surely a seasoned grappler can beat him there.

Overall, Rahiki is a fun prospect and he clearly has some dynamic striking skills and output offensively which will bring some entertaining fights in this division.

Rahiki will now be taking on Ollie Schmid. Schmid is a promotional newcomer fighting out of City Kickboxing in New Zealand with a 4-2 professional record. 

Schmid is a Taekwondo black belt who brings a striking style to the Octagon. He most recently went viral for a 15-second spinning backfist knockout just two months ago.

Most of Schmid’s wins are by quick knockout and his competition has been absolutely horrendous. So it is hard to fully evaluate him. Overall though, he just looks like an okay regional talent who likely will have weaknesses that will get exposed at this level.

While he is a BJJ blue belt, he has shown some vulnerability in the past, having been submitted in his professional debut and stopped by TKO in mid-2024.

Schmid is still very early in his development and likely has holes. He also has faced no one. However, I do think he can generate some power in his strikes and does have some degree of skill standing. He looks like he knows how to evade defensively somewhat on the feet.

As far as this matchup goes, this should be chaos for as long as it lasts. Since Schmid is a Taekwondo specialist and Rahiki is a high-volume kickboxer, I expect this to stay standing.

While Schmid has some single-shot power and City Kickboxing behind him, Rahiki has the advantage of a full training camp and previous UFC experience. I just feel like this is asking way too much of Schmid. My guess is Schmid can’t handle the firepower of Rahiki and will likely get overwhelmed and knocked out.

Rahiki’s defensive holes are still a major red flag, and Schmid is a striking based level who seems to have a degree of power and precision so I do think Schmid could land here and hurt Rahiki. However, the short-notice nature of this fight is the deciding factor for me. Rahiki’s pace is exhausting to deal with even with a full camp, and I expect him to overwhelm Schmid early.

Schmid hasn’t faced anyone with Rahiki’s level of output, and the jump from the regional circuit to facing an undefeated UFC prospect on four days’ notice is likely too steep a mountain to climb. I expect Rahiki to find the finish against the newcomer who will likely tire under the relentless pressure.

—

On DraftKings, Rahiki is squarely in play among the top overall options on the slate.

We still don’t have distance or finishing props on this matchup, but I’m expecting Rahiki to have one of the strongest on the slate. We also don’t have DraftKings salaries, but I’m assuming he’ll be priced at 9.5k or 9.6k.

The analysis is pretty straightforward though. Rahiki deserves to be in this top group. He is likely to win by knockout in my opinion, and it could come in round one or round two. Rahiki throws enough volume that an early finish can score 100-110 or more, and he can contend for the optimal.

The difficulty of course is that he may have to stand out among this top range, which won’t be easy. He could score 110 and lose to Salkilld if Salkilld gets a quick win bonus, for example. Rahiki doesn’t have much wrestling upside either so his path is straightforward with an early KO.

From a matchup standpoint I think Rahiki is a bit safer than Salkilld, and maybe less so than Malkoun. He may be the least likely of the trio to win in the first minute, but I also think he could win by KO in rounds 1, 2 or 3. And with it should come enough volume that I feel decent about his scoring projection either way.

It’s hard to have an extremely strong take within this top grouping, but I do like Rahiki. I’d like moderate exposure, especially as he’ll be cheaper than Malkoun. I’ll still likely find ways to play all three.

Schmid is projected to land at 6.7k and I think he’s a viable dart throw.

He’s still firmly in the dart throw grouping, with Meerschaert and Dariush, but I’d prefer him over Meerschaert. The only reason is because Rahiki lacks striking defense, and can be hurt, so there’s some possibility Schmid could knock him out early.

I would not trust Schmid past a few minutes in this matchup though and don’t think he’s particularly good, so I’m not dying to make any investment. With a large portfolio, taking a couple chances still feels reasonable.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rahiki by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic

Fight Odds: Pericic -140, Gaziev +120

Odds to end ITD: -800

DraftKings Salaries: Pericic 8.4k, Gaziev 7.8k

Weight Class: HW

We have a heavyweight banger up next between Shamil Gaziev and Brando Pericic.

Pericic is 6-1 professionally at age 31, and he’s won both of his UFC fights by early knockout, with all six of his career wins coming inside the distance. All six of those wins have also come in round one.

Needless to say, Pericic is building his resume as a super exciting early finisher in this division, and I think he may continue his success against Gaziev on Saturday.

With that said, I still view Pericic as a kill or be killed type, meaning that his wins will typically look awesome and come early, and his losses may still look ugly and come early as well.

The only time he’s seen a round two, he was death gassed and was finished by RNC. That was in 2024. To be fair, that opponent was 13-3 and the champion of HEX, and Pericic did hurt him badly early in the fight. The opponent took him down a couple of times early and I liked how Pericic scrambled back to his feet.

In the UFC, he still hasn’t faced a whole lot of adversity. He wiped out Elisha Elisson in less than two minutes, stuffing a couple of takedowns, and knocking him out with ground-and-pound from top position. More recently, he did the same to Louie Sutherland, stuffing some early takedowns and scrambling, and then finished Sutherland with strikes on the mat.

On the regional scene, Pericic’s ground-and-pound looked pretty dangerous as well. I don’t consider him a high level wrestler and don’t expect him to shoot for many takedowns, but if he gets on top, he can finish fights and do some damage.

Defensively, I still see liabilities in his technique. He can be taken down for sure, but he’s pretty heavy and actually scrambles up, which I love. A good wrestler might just take him down and sub him, especially in an extended fight, but I think Pericic can scramble up fine with the mid-tiers of the division.

Otherwise, Pericic just throws heavy. He has real power in his hands, and he’s a decent clinch fighter as well. He can kick a little bit too. He’s willing to brawl.

My best guess is we’ll continue to see Pericic have success early in fights, and I actually think he’s a pretty competent offensive fighter. We have to assume he’ll struggle when pushed more and when fights extend, and he probably will get finished.

He’ll be taking on Shamil Gaziev next who is coming off a tough knockout loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta last November.

Gaziev is now 14-2, with nine wins coming by knockout and three coming by submission.

He earned his contract on the Contender Series where he dropped his opponent quickly, but got reversed and had his back taken. Gaziev then reversed position himself and choked the guy out.

Against Buday in his UFC debut, Gaziev pressed forward and hurt Buday with his hands pretty immediately. He scared Buday away with the pressure, and just wore him down until Buday quit early in the second round.

It was an interesting performance because we haven’t seen too many extended striking exchanges from Gaziev in the past, and that’s definitely not his biggest strength.

Typically, striking has been a method for him to close the distance and take his opponent to the canvas, where he has had the majority of his success. Gaziev fought Rozenstruik in the main event in 2024, and Gaziev was completely outclassed there. Rozenstruik outlanded him 123 to 17 at distance until the fight was stopped after the fourth round.

It really showed the limits of Gaziev’s distance game and despite Rozenstruik being a legitimate kickboxer, Rozenstruik is low volume and also doesn’t wrestle well. Gaziev only took him down one time on seven attempts and I think essentially showed the ceiling that his style brings.

Now he’s coming off a devastating early knockout loss to Cortes-Acosta in which Gaziev tried to throw down in the pocket and just got murdered. While I consider him to have power and he’s shown to be capable of big moments, like in his knockout win over Thomas Petersen, I do not trust him in extended striking exchanges and I am now concerned about his durability.

As far as his grappling credentials, Gaziev doesn’t even rate out super well there either. He’s big, and physical, and has been able to roll through a bunch of low-level opponents on the regional scene and some in the UFC.

Still, it doesn’t take much to have success as a wrestler in the heavyweight division. As long as Gaziev pursues the takedowns, he’s arguably got a path to victory against the majority of the division. He most recently took Don’Tale Mayes down three times to win a decision, and that type of outcome is on the table in future matchups.

For now, I see Gaziev as being able to mostly beat up the lower class of this division. He needs to pressure where his pocket boxing can actually have a chance, and he needs to wrestle and earn top position.

There’s always a chance that fights in the heavyweight division extend and look ugly, but historically, Pericic’s fights have ended quickly in wins and losses and I think that’s the most likely outcome here as well.

Pericic is very aggressive and willing to throw down, and I think he’s the much more damaging striker here. I think he carries more power outright, and I like his kicking game better. I think he’s the better producer of offense essentially, which will come in the form of damage.

We’ve just seen Gaziev brutally knocked out, so it’s tough to pick against that outcome for Pericic. I’m not sure it comes simply and I’m not as sure Gaziev will be willing to engage, but if he doesn’t, he doesn’t have a lot of tools at distance.

Assuming these two clinch and brawl, I would favor Pericic to come out ahead and win by knockout, but there’s still plenty of variance in those kinds of exchanges, and it’s possible he could get hurt and finished as well.

Additionally, Gaziev should be the better wrestler and it would make sense for him to try and wrestle. I think he can have success, but I’m really not sold he can control Pericic early. So we might just see a bunch of early takedown attempts, maybe Gaziev lands 1-2 of them, and most likely Pericic can scramble up.

However, the longer the fight goes, the more you still have to question what Pericic’s gas tank looks like. If Gaziev can make it out of round one AND take him down in round two, Gaziev probably just finishes the fight. Gaziev’s cardio hasn’t necessarily been a strength though, and so if the fight goes to round two and he cannot get the fight down, maybe Pericic can knock him out anyways.

This is a high-variance fight and the betting line is competitive for a reason. I think Pericic is the more likely of the two to win by early knockout, and that will be my pick, but Gaziev surely has some takedown equity and things could get super weird if it extends at all. Hopefully it’s fun while it lasts and someone finishes the fight before they both gas.

—

On DraftKings, both sides of this matchup will be squarely on my radar with the fight projected to end inside the distance at a high rate.

The Under 1.5 rounds prop is currently lined at -200, and it’s one of the fights projected to end the fastest on the entire slate. With that said, the winner will be expected to score very well for their mid-range price and contend for the optimal.

If the fight extends and we see a decision, god forbid, there is legitimate bust risk, which you can never fully rule out. I still intend to play into this fight heavily and I expect the field will as well.

Pericic is my preferred target at 8.4k and I expect he’ll be the more popular side as well. Coming off two big results of 102 and 101, Pericic has a clean box score and that should contribute to his public ownership. But it makes sense, and he has one of the best ITD lines on the entire slate at -135.

This one isn’t complicated. I don’t even care if he wins or loses. Pericic’s success is largely tied to early knockouts, and odds indicate we have a strong chance of that happening as well. It makes sense from the matchup side of things as well.

I’ve been on Pericic pretty heavily and above the market in each of his last two fights and I will continue to play him this weekend. I am guessing the market will have caught up, and he will likely be chalk, but he’s worth moderate exposure and is a clear tournament winning target in the mid-range.

Gaziev is priced at 7.8k and is a great tournament target as well.

If anything, perhaps it’s worth playing against Pericic more this time than in his last two fights, considering he has the best toughest pedigree opponent of his career in front of him, and someone who has multiple dimensions to their game.

I just don’t trust Gaziev and haven’t really loved his profile to this point, which makes things tricky. I don’t particularly trust him to wrestle well and his distance striking game is poor. So the primary reason I’d be targeting this spot is for variance, which is still worth it.

Gaziev could win by early KO. He could land takedowns and win by round 1 or 2 TKO on the mat, or even by sub. I’m unsure how likely those outcomes are but they’re certainly possible.

I do think Gaziev could be semi-popular as well, but he should be leverage against Pericic, especially coming off the KO loss. He’s still averaging 95.7 DK points per win, and is +160 to win ITD here which is a strong line for the price tag.

I think Gaziev is a very strong secondary target this week and someone who I’d aim to be around the field percentage to, or perhaps even overweight if the field is scared off.

Let’s hope the early finishing trend continues for these fighters and if it does, we should get the winner putting up a worthwhile score here in the mid-range.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pericic by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland

Fight Odds: Tuivasa -220, Sutherland +185

Odds to end ITD: -325

DraftKings Salaries: Tuivasa 8.6k, Sutherland 7.6k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues as Mr. Shoey himself Tai Tuivasa looks to get back in the win column when he takes on the short notice Louie Sutherland. Let’s dive in.

Tai Tuivasa makes his return to the UFC this weekend, looking to dig himself out of a 6 fight losing streak. Tuivasa made his debut as a 6-0 prospect, and won his first three fights in impressive fashion. He then lost three in a row, before heading on a 5 fight win streak and catapulting his way up the rankings. With massive KO wins over Derrick Lewis and Greg Hardy, he earned himself a main event and title eliminator shot against Cyril Gane, which was unfortunately the start of this 6 fight losing streak. 

Over that course, he was KO’d by Pavlovich, submitted by Volkov and Tybura, and most recently lost closer decisions to Tallison Texeira and Jarzinho Rozenstruik. 

Tuivasa is a fan favorite and it’s easy to see why. He is a fighter who will stand and bang until one man falls and then do a shoey in front of the crowd. Doesn’t get much better than that really, if you ask me. That’s all fun and games when he’s taking on people like Rashad Coulter and Harry Hunsucker, but the truth is when he took that step up in competition, he struggled to compete with the best of the best. He lacks minute winning on the feet, any sort of a ground game and is now past his prime, not making any improvements fight to fight.

He is truly lacking cardio and his durability has started to wane, and once you take him down you can often keep him there. He is currently defending takedowns at 60% and has been submitted 3 times. 

At his core though, he wants to stand and bang and he is someone who’s very capable of shutting your lights out. He has a 93% finish rate with 13 wins by KO, 11 of which come in round one. He has 8 knockdowns in his UFC career and is averaging 3.66 strikes landed per minute at a 48% accuracy. 

The issue is he has often been willing to take one to give one, and is absorbing 4.97 strikes per minute with a 43% striking defense, and has now been finished 6 times, including 3 times by KO. You pair that with an inability to win minutes, and you get a finish dependent fighter with a lack of cardio and no ability to work off his back. 

Teixeira controlled him for 7 minutes, Tybura and Volkov walked right through him on the mat and Rozenstruik and Gane out struck him 91-37 and 110-29 respectively. So sure, Tuivasa is a fun fighter and it’s hard to not cheer for him to get a knockout. While he may be live to shut someone’s lights off early, it’s hard to trust his minute winning, ground game or cardio at this point of his career, and he will often struggle to keep up with the higher echelon of the division, making him a true KO or bust fighter.

Louie Sutherland makes the long trip to Australia this weekend, looking for his first win under the UFC banner. The “Vanilla Gorilla” was the former Levels Fight League champion, and went 1-1 in PFL before making his debut. He unfortunately ran into Valter Walker and Brando Pericic in his first two bouts, who were able to handle him quite easily. 

The 32 year old out of England does have quite the impressive physique for the division, but was handed the heel hook merchant in Walker who submitted him in 84 seconds and the surging Pericic who KO’d him in under two minutes. That last loss was only 42 days ago, so it’s interesting to see how Sutherland will look after such a tough loss, as he was hurt and pounded on for a good minute in that last one. 

However, those two UFC losses were the first time Sutherland has been finished. He has been to decision five times and is 2-3 on the scorecards, but has historically been pretty durable. 

Sutherland is actually quite athletic for his size. When he’s on top of his game, he is able to land big kicks from the outside and look to land powerful shots. He has an 80% finish rate, all coming by KO, including 7 coming in round one. 

He doesn’t have the most volume, but he is able to work on the front foot and land damage with typically decent cardio to back. Defensively, he can be kept at range but he has historically been willing to engage in slower pace striking battles he’s able to fare well in. 

In his last fight, he went and brawled with an athletic guy in Pericic and failed, and I think that although he has the power to land a big shot of his own, he will often be out struck by faster guys in brawls. His durability and cardio has held up before but against weaker fighters and the fact he’s returning after being brutally KO’d 42 days ago is not something I’m too much of a fan of. 

He also can look to wrestle offensively but doesn’t offer too much from a BJJ perspective. He’s rather looking to control and land ground-and-pound, but he might be a step behind in scrambles. We have also seen him submitted but I do think his lack of a neck makes him harder to choke out, although he wasn’t able to protect his limbs against Walker. 

Overall, Sutherland is a big boy with plenty of power and deceptive athleticism for his size, but his lack of volume, speed, high level competition and the fact he was just KO’d 42 days ago will hold him back. I do think he has the power and well-rounded ability to land big shots, and even win minutes against lower level opponents, but I would love it if he improved his wrestling or defensive striking if he is to compete at the higher echelon of the division.

This fight is an ugly one. Do you really want to be backing unmotivated Tai Tuivasa at chalk on a 6 fight losing streak? It’s an ugly look but let’s be real, this is a huge step down in competition. This isn’t some perennial top 15 heavyweight or an up and coming 6’7 prospect. It’s a guy who’s 0-2 in the UFC and whose best win is probably the 4-2 Luis Carlo de Brito? Or maybe Pavel Dailidko in his pro debut? Either way, not UFC caliber guys. 

Add in the fact that he was just KO’d 42 days ago, and MAN, it’s a fight Tuivasa really should win. Truthfully, Sutherland has a chance. He can win minutes from range with kicks quite well and can even land takedowns, which is usually game over for Tai. But the truth is he has been willing to brawl and in a brawl, I favour the banger from western Sydney.

 I think Tuivasa is on this card to get the crowd fired up and do a shoey, and I think this is the type of step down in competition that should allow him to do that. I understand decision equity for Sutherland, but going to pick Tuivasa to get the better of the exchanges and land a big shot that puts him down. Very hard to have any confidence in Tuivasa in 2026, but picked him here. 

—

On DraftKings, this is a disgusting fight that may still be considered a priority.

The fight itself is -325 to end inside the distance, and typically, these are the spots I like to target because we are more likely to get an optimal score. I think investing in the fight as a whole makes sense regardless.

I also think we’re less likely to get big ownerships here because both sides have been sucking. I thought Jackson McVey was among the most obvious targets on the slate last week, but he was owned in the low 30s because he hadn’t won in the UFC yet. So I don’t think we’re going to see massive ownerships on Tuivasa, despite the set up spot.

With that said, I’m actually somewhat concerned about this one.

While Tuivasa for sure has early finishing equity, he just doesn’t have much process to his game. The reason Pericic was able to finish Sutherland is because he defended some takedowns early and scrambled up to his feet when he was taken down. 

I’ll also push back on the fact that he was brutally KOd, which I don’t think is fair. He basically just quit when he couldn’t land the takedown and the ref stepped in, it’s not like he was unconscious or anything close to that. It does make me think that he will quit again, in the same manner, potentially if he can’t take Tuivasa down. But I personally don’t view it as some major negative that he lost 40 days ago because he wasn’t knocked out cold.

Regardless, my fear is that Tuivasa isn’t as good as Pericic. Can he defend takedowns? More importantly, can he stop Sutherland from clinching? There are fights from Sutherland where he’ll just throw a couple of punches and clinch over and over. Sounds like a horrible fight but a great path to extending it and potentially beating Tuivasa. If he takes Tuivasa down like he took down Pericic, I don’t know if Tuivasa gets back up.

The point is Pericic has a better shut down game and is more devastating than Tuivasa. The same fight could unfold but I think there’s a much better chance of Sutherland having early clinch or grappling success, and a much better chance that the fight extends. At that point, this could just be another disgusting HW affair.

Tuivasa is priced at 8.6k and I still think you can load up on him if you want to. He’s -135 to win ITD which is a great line. I could argue actually that he’s a fantastic tournament play because he’ll probably be owned in the low 30s, and coming in overweight may be super smart.

I am just personally worried that Sutherland can do enough to get out of the first round, and kill the fight. I’ll also note the fight ITD has dropped from -400 to -325 this week, and the Over 1.5 prop is actually -125. So there are mild concerns for me in that regard.

I’m not sure Tuivasa will be my favorite play on the board this week, but his finishing metrics certainly make him a very strong tournament play on paper.

Sutherland is priced at 7.6k and I think he’s OK.

I think you could look at the spot blindly, and play him above the field percentage. He’ll likely be owned in the mid teens and is +235 to win ITD with leverage against Tuivasa.

Sutherland can wrestle, so perhaps he has real grappling upside here. Tuivasa just got taken down three times by Teixeira who doesn’t have as strong cardio as Sutherland.

I also have fears about an ugly extended fight. Sutherland could easily lose. He could clinch his way to an ugly decision and score in the 70s. Maybe that’s still worth it at 7.6k, but I’m less sure that he crushes in a win than I’d like to be to make a big investment here.

Considering Sutherland should be low owned, I don’t think it’s a massive risk to come in around the field percentage or a bit overweight. That’s probably how I’d play it. It’s a super high-variance fight no matter how you look at it.

The result of this one will look obvious in hindsight I’m sure, and I’ll have exposure to both sides. I just don’t trust the process of either guy enough to be certain we see a quick finish.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tuivasa by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=-Low)

UNDERCARD

Cam Rowston vs. Robert Bryczek

Fight Odds: Rowston -165, Bryczek +145

Odds to end ITD: -210

DraftKings Salaries: Rowston 8.9k, Bryczek 7.3k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues as the surging hometown favorite Cam Rowston looks to take down the battle tested Robert Bryczek. Let’s dive in.

Cam Rowston has had quite the turn around since his debut on the Contender series in 2024. He dropped that one to Torrez Finney who took him down 10 times and controlled him for almost 12 minutes. He bounced back by winning 3 fights in a row regionally, KO’ing his new DWCS opponent, Brandon Holmes, in under 3 minutes and winning his first two UFC appearances. 

In less than two years since losing to Finney, he won 6 fights and has put his name on the list of prospects heading to the top of this division and did so with one of the most important attributes a fighter can have; a great nickname. Cam Rowston, the Battle Giraffe, is a 6’3” middleweight with an incredibly long neck and therefore, a very fitting nickname. 

Jokes aside, Rowston has won his last 3 by KO and has shown his ability to put on a solid pace and land big shots. He now has a 93% finish rate, with 6 KO’s and 7 submissions. Seven of those finishes came in round one but he also has shown decent cardio and the ability to get 2nd and 3rd round finishes too. He has been finished once himself regionally, in round one back in 2018, leaving us some questions about his durability, but it has held up to date. 

Watching Rowston, you’ll notice a lot of positive things. It’s very fitting he’s training out of City Kickboxing as he shows very solid counters and rangy strikes that win optics at distance. He has shown newfound aggression and power. 

He is averaging 4.26 strikes landed per minute to his 2.62 absorbed, winning the range optics quite decisively. You’d think with this recent power streak, he wins most of his fights by KO, but he does have more submissions wins and that comes with his solid front headlock series and ability to pounce on hurt fighters. 

He hasn’t utilized his wrestling recently, and only averages 0.5 TDs per 15 minutes, but he has fought pretty solid wrestlers recently in which he has had the striking advantage over them. 

However, we have seen Rowston lose minutes in the wrestling exchanges and although he is dangerous in the clinch, he can be taken down and controlled. He is 1-2 to the decisions and smaller, stocky wrestlers have been able to win minutes against him, like Finney did on DWCS and like Malkoun did to him regionally. 

However, he is able to work his way to the feet and has solid cardio to back, meaning you have to be able to control and win minutes against him quite convincingly for all 15 minutes if you want to beat Rowston. Therefore, Rowston remains a solid prospect at 185 with great counter striking, solid submission skills and plenty of power. I still have my questions about his takedown defense and ability to take a big shot as he was finished regionally, but he has fared well so far in the Octagon and is someone to keep an eye on in this division. 

Robert Bryczek makes his return to the Octagon this weekend looking to build off of a solid round 3 KO win over Brad Tavares last time out. That was Bryczek’s first UFC win, as the Polish fighter’s career was mostly spent in the Oktagon promotion. He made his debut as a 17-5 prospect back in February of 2024 where he lost a decision to Ihor Poteiria. That was a bit of a let down for Bryczek as he was highly touted and -250 going into that fight. 

After the loss, he took 18 months off before coming back against Tavares. In that matchup, he was able to utilize pressure very well and throw in combination. He attempted 149 strikes in that 11 minute fight and it was that constant pressure that was able to break a really solid vet in Tavares. He now has a 72% finish rate with 12 KOs and 1 submission. 

He has shown the ability to land big power shots and put opponents out, but also has solid cardio with a round 5 win and five wins by decision.

I would consider Bryczek a pure boxer. He doesn’t throw many kicks and instead looks to walk forward and throw powerful combinations. Sometimes, he can lack volume and be too patient, but when he’s on his game, throws with power and has the cardio to do that for extended periods of time. He himself can be hit when entering the pocket and that can be concerning, as he was dropped by Poteiria, but he has been historically durable otherwise, having only been KO’d once in 24 pro fights. That one KO loss was to hyped up prospect Kaik Brito, so I’m not running to call Bryczek chinny, but his durability isn’t perfect. 

On the mat, Bryczek has been submitted but his takedown defense has held up well so far in the UFC with an 85% TDD. We have seen him held along the cage but he does have solid physicality to reverse positions and was even able to land a takedown of his own against Tavares. 

Bryczek is a solid boxer with good power and solid physical attributes. He throws well in combination and has solid head movement. I do think he is pretty one dimensional in that approach, and can lose optics from range to kickers, be taken down or even hurt at his own rate against more powerful fighters. But as a 35 year old prospect, he has solid experience and will look to push the pace with his boxing, to which he is able to put your lights out or drown you with pressure as the fight goes on.

I still have my questions about both fighters. Rowston is the new kid on the block. He has three back-to-back-to-back KOs in pretty devastating fashion and some solid hype behind him. Bryczek is the guy who paid his dues regionally, was kind of forgotten about after a disappointing debut but seemed to find himself late. 

With Rowston, I worry about his TDD and how he fares when pressured, whereas I worry more about Bryczek being countered with his pressure. Meanwhile, the biggest questions for both guys might be their durability. Bryczek was dropped by Ihor and finished regionally, whereas Rowston was also finished regionally and has since had that durability hold up. I would give the slight edge to Rowston there as the younger fighter with less wear on the tires, but neither guy has proven it yet in the UFC. 

So how does this fight play out? I don’t expect much wrestling. If anything, Bryczek could win minutes from top but I favour the BJJ of Rowston, so is it even worth it for Bryczek to shoot along the cage if he’s putting himself in harm’s way, I’m not sure. That leaves us with a volume striking affair. I expect Bryczek to take the front foot and Rowston, being the CKB guy, be willing to counter with his solid range and kicks. 

With that style, I don’t love the price on Rowston. I do think he can be pressured and Bryczek can win optics that way. But at the end of the day, I do like Rowston’s volume, counters and power, and something is telling me Bryczek can be hurt more often than we’ve seen. So I’ll take the hometown guy here in Rowston to get it done, but certainly not a guy I’m parlaying him at -220. 

—

On DraftKings, this fight has merit as what should be an exciting scrap with finishing equity on both sides.

Rowston is priced at 8.9k and should get some ownership, despite his odds falling. He’s actually down to -165 on the moneyline from his -300 opener, which is mildly concerning.

Still, he’s won both fights in the UFC and scored 107 and 99 DK points, so the public will gobble that up. I also like him in the sense that he will often win ITD if he wins at all, and Bryczek is kind of suspect.

Rowston is +105 to win ITD which isn’t elite but it’s a decent price for 8.9k. I think he can win by knockout or submission. I’m willing to mix him in as a secondary target this week.

I don’t consider Rowston safe, and there’s a chance he only scores 80-90 with a late round finish for example, but the fight is -210 to end ITD and Rowston saves salary off the top end. He’s simply one of many viable targets this week but he’s certainly got enough finishing equity to be mixed in.

Bryczek is priced at 7.3k and is trending towards being a value play.

He is now +145 to win, with finishing equity, so he’ll rate out as a decent target.

I honestly don’t love him from a matchup perspective. I don’t think he has real wrestling upside, and otherwise, probably needs a knockout. Rowston is bigger than him and fighting at home.

Regardless, Bryczek will rate out well for the price tag. He’s +270 to win ITD and throws with intent. He’s arguably a clear step up above the fighters priced below him in terms of win equity.

I’m still not sold. I worry that Rowston is tough enough to extend the fight regardless and then in a decision, I’m not sure I’d want a huge part of this one. I consider Bryczek a solid secondary option with finishing equity, and playing him around the field percentage makes sense, but I won’t be outright prioritizing him as I think there are plenty of options to consider in this range.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rowston by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian

Fight Odds: Tafa -210, Christian +180

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Tafa 8.7k, Christian 7.5k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a low level fight here in the light heavyweight division between Junior Tafa and Kevin Christian. Both of these guys are coincidentally coming off of rear naked choke losses to Billy Elekena.

Tafa is 2-5 in the UFC and is not good. Like his brother, he is a power striker who can land some bombs and knock out opponents. However, he isn’t a good athlete and he is basically terrible at every other area of MMA. 

Junior Tafa just relies on heavy hands to find a knockout rather than utilizing a diverse or nuanced technical game. Most of his success comes when he can dictate the distance and land clean power shots early, as his effectiveness tends to waver if he is forced into a high-paced or prolonged contest.

The most significant gaps in Tafa’s skillset are found in his grappling and ground game, which remain underdeveloped and borderline embarrassing. He frequently struggles when taken to the mat, showing a lack of fundamental defensive positioning and submission awareness that has led to several losses by submission. While he possesses a functional ability to defend initial takedown attempts and defends takedowns at 70 percent, he often looks lost once his back hits the canvas, failing to effectively scramble up to his feet. I don’t trust Tafa at all on the mat.

Tafa will be taking on Kevin Christian. Christian is a Brazilian fighter who is 9-3 professionally. He is 30 years old. He had a 5 year break from 2019 to 2024 where he wasn’t fighting. He then won an LFA fight and got an opportunity to fight on the Contender Series in late 2024.

Christian won his Contender Series fight but it wasn’t a great performance. The fight lasted for about 9 minutes and Christian had only landed 6 of 19 distance strikes in the fight. In round 1, Christian was taken down and attempted guard submissions and failed. He then was on his back again in round 2 and successfully guard submitted his tired and bad opponent. It wasn’t a super impressive performance. He then got quickly beaten by RNC against Billy Elekena in his UFC debut.

Overall, I am not super high on Christian. He is a towering guy and is 6’7.” However, he isn’t super athletic and he is very low volume on the feet. I have also seen him hurt badly and knocked out. He has tall man’s defense. In his LFA fight, he did show an okay jab and straight punch and can occasionally land a power shot, but I don’t think he is a good striker at all.

Christian is a BJJ black belt. However, he isn’t a great wrestler. I have seen him take down the occasional opponent but he is generally on his back chasing guard submissions. I do think he has some decent subs and has some danger in his game. However, relying on guard subs in the UFC is not an intelligent thing to do.

I basically think Christian may get the occasional UFC finish, most likely by submission and that is about it.

As far as this matchup goes, this is binary. On the feet, I think Tafa is clearly more dangerous offensively and I think Tafa will hurt Christian if they get into prolonged exchanges. Christian just gets hit so clean and doesn’t take shots well, and Tafa is capable of landing clean power shots early. My guess is it results in a knockout for Tafa early.

Tafa is still so bad on the mat and Christian is a BJJ black belt. If these guys get in exchanges on the mat, Christian can definitely win by submission. The issue is I don’t actually like Christian’s wrestling, and I don’t know if he will easily get Tafa down early. If Tafa goes for an early knockout and gasses himself out then I think Christian getting Tafa down and submitting him is more likely.

So there are ways Christian could potentially get this fight to the mat. However, I do think Tafa likely gets his chances to land clean early, and I am going to pick Tafa to take advantage and win by early knockout.

—

On DraftKings, this is yet another fight that’s extremely likely to end inside the distance.

The fight is sitting at -600 to end ITD currently and with mid-range prices, it’s another potential priority.

It’s also another disgusting fight. Junior Tafa is favored to win, which should tell you a lot. I honestly think Christian is one of the worst fighters in the UFC and he’d be like an F level prospect for me if I had to grade.

It’s still a boom or bust matchup though. At best, Tafa will force boxing exchanges where Christian will swing wildly, and anything can happen. Tafa is bad enough on the ground that one slip could mean he loses.

I lean toward Tafa personally because Christian can’t really wrestle and has no defense. He’s decent with his kicks at distance and that’s an area where he could have success, but assuming Tafa has half a brain, he’ll close distance and try to knock him out where Christian can’t really defend himself.

I think an early knockout for Tafa is one of the more likely outcomes of the fight and will be the outcome I predict. He is -155 to win ITD which is really strong, and we probably won’t see ultra chalk on him because his box scores are bad.

I don’t think Tafa is the highest priority on the slate because he’s still costly at 8.7k and there’s just so many options. If things go slightly wrong, he could score 97 in a win and miss the optimal. He’s only scored 103 and 98 in his wins. He probably needs to win in round one.

Still, I think that outcome is very much on the table. Christian is such an obvious fighter to bet against longterm that I’m willing to do it in the short term with Tafa, and will probably have moderate exposure. He’s still extremely boom or bust, so I don’t consider him a clearly better option than many other finishers in this same range.

Christian is priced at 7.5k and is a viable target for the price.

He won’t score any points per minute but he will wing horribly wild shots on the feet, so he could randomly win by knockout there. Or he could happen to find himself in a grappling exchange where he wins by sub. He’s +215 to win ITD which is good.

It’s worth having some exposure here just because Tafa obviously has issues too. Christian still rates out well and probably won’t be super chalky either given his last fight.

I don’t mind being overweight on this fight because it’s very likely to end inside the distance, but I’d say it’s even more boom/bust than some others, so it’s still worth a degree of caution. I’ll still end up with a fair amount of Tafa, and less of Christian.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tafa by KO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Jacob Malkoun vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Fight Odds: Malkoun -1000, Meerschaert +675

Odds to end ITD: -225

DraftKings Salaries: Malkoun 9.8k, Meerschaert 6.4k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I can’t imagine the UFC gives Gerald Meerschaert many more opportunities, but he’ll step back into the cage against Aussie favorite Jacob Malkoun on Saturday.

I have really enjoyed watching Jacob Malkoun in the UFC. I have been really impressed by his wrestling especially because he comes from Australia which is not exactly known for developing high level wrestlers. We will get a chance to see it on display against Gerald Meerschaert this weekend.

Malkoun lands a whopping 5.81 takedowns per 15 minutes which is just bonkers. He is a solid wrestler with a lot of takedown variety. He also has a crazy pace. He lost to Brendan Allen, but I actually thought he won that fight and he outlanded Allen in takedowns 7-2. Malkoun can also just drain opponents with his mat returns and heavy top game.

I do wish Malkoun had a bit better of a submission game though. He has 9 wins professionally and doesn’t have a single submission win in his career, even against regional competition, which is very surprising honestly.

I also think Malkoun has improved as a striker. He lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.36 in return, but those are skewed metrics based on Malkoun almost always being in top position with his wrestling. Still though, I think his distance striking has improved. I feel like Malkoun is just a pace fighter and if he has success standing it will generally be with his pace.

Malkoun actually defends takedowns at 33 percent. He has only been taken down 4 times in the UFC. However, he worked up nicely in all of those exchanges and seems to have a good get up game on the mat.

I just think Malkoun is a solid fighter as his pace and cardio are great and his wrestling game is solid too.

Malkoun will be taking on UFC veteran Gerald Meerschaert. Meerschaert is a goofy opportunistic fighter, that is the best way to describe him.

I don’t really trust him to win rounds by outstriking his opponents on the feet as he lands 3.01 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.52 in return. However, he is tough and willing to throw down. He has a good body kick and he can sometimes have success standing. The issue is his durability is really declining and I do think he has lost a burst in his athleticism as well. He just looks way worse now.

I also don’t trust Meerschaert to win with top control grappling all that often. He does land 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is solid, but he only defends takedowns at 42 percent and is never really winning fights with top control. So I just don’t trust him to win rounds which is why I don’t like his process of winning fights.

Meerschaert is very opportunistic though. I wouldn’t consider him to be a very hard hitter, although he has hurt a couple of people on the feet in his UFC career. He is a pretty dangerous submission grappler and if he gets your back on the mat, he can absolutely submit UFC level fighters. He also has a good guillotine choke. I do really respect Meerschaert as a submission artist in general.

My issue with Meerschaert is that I don’t fully trust his process of getting fighters with good TDD to the mat. He can get put in really bad positions trying to scramble to get back takes. The guy will literally give up his back hoping he can reverse position and get a dominant grappling position. That might work on tired fighters or lower level guys, but against competent grapplers that is an awful idea. 

Meerschaert is basically just a guy who I think can high roll some UFC level fighters with transitional and chaotic submissions. I don’t have much faith in him other than that. 

As far as this matchup goes, I just have to go with Malkoun as his process of fighting is more suited to winning rounds and because Meerschaert seems extremely shot. 

I think Malkoun is the better wrestler and can just win the wrestling exchanges in general. I also think at this point, Malkoun is the better striker with better durability. I just don’t think Meerschaert can take a shot anymore. I would be surprised if Meerschaert can keep up with Malkoun’s pace here in any area.

My guess is Meerschaert needs a finish to win. Although it’s possible as Malkoun has been hurt before, I don’t think Malkoun will be easy to submit. So my guess is most of the time, Malkoun generally survives, lands the better shots, lands some takedowns, and probably hurts Meerschaert along the way as well.

—

On DraftKings, Malkoun is priced up to 9.8k which makes for a super interesting dynamic.

What I especially find interesting is that he typically crushes on DraftKings, and it’s why he’s been a favorite of mine for years. Malkoun is averaging 113 DK points per win, and he’s seen a ceiling of 131 and 129 which is massive.

However, Malkoun’s path to those ceiling scores is through volume wrestling, and I’m really unsure that he’ll do that this week.

I think Malkoun can probably take Meerschaert down whenever he wants, but I’m not sure he’ll want to. Meerschaert has been KOd badly a bunch of times and he was just folded in 50 seconds by Kyle Daukaus. I could easily see Malkoun prioritizing a striking game, as he did in his last fight against Finney who is a wrestler.

Also, if Malkoun does wrestle, I don’t think he’ll land 8 takedowns. Meerschaert has given up four takedowns a couple of times, but he doesn’t try to or want to scramble, so that limits Malkoun’s upside.

Essentially, I think there are multiple paths to Malkoun underperforming at this price tag. He is not a finisher and his only finish in the UFC is when Petroski accidentally ran into his hip. His best path to a ceiling will be mitigated to a degree. I don’t view Malkoun as a priority in tournaments for this reason.

However, I will still make the upside case for him. One upside case is that he just wins by KO in a minute. Meerschaert looks seriously shot and although Malkoun has no real KOs on his resume, it might take one jab and Meerschaert could be done. I lean toward an early KO being somewhat likely based solely on how shot Meerschaert looks.

Additionally, Malkoun could land 3 takedowns, earn 8 minutes of control, and potentially batter Meerschaert for a late stoppage. Even in a decision, maybe he can creep into the 110 mark. Meerschaert allowed 110 to de Ridder who subbed him late, and 98 to Jotko who took him down four times.

I view Malkoun as extremely safe, all things considered, with many paths to score. He is probably deserving of a betting line like this and I’d be really surprised if he lost. No matter how he wins, he can score 100 points, so he’s not a bad play.

I just do see some concerns in that betting him to win by KO in one minute feels wrong historically, and I’m unsure he’ll prioritize a wrestling heavy path. I think Salkilld is more likely to win by RD 1 KO than Malkoun is, and Rahiki is probably more likely to win by KO outright as well. And there are SO many finishing threats in the 8k range.

So my guess is I won’t end up with a ton of exposure to Malkoun in tournaments. He’s still going to project as an elite play and I view him as one, but more so on the safety side. He’s still -200 to win ITD so there are paths to a big score, and if you can afford him, I don’t mind some exposure.

I simply lean toward building more into the mid-range, and/or prioritizing Salkilld or Rahiki ahead of Malkoun directly.

Meerschaert is priced at 6.4k and will be a fade for me this week.

There’ve been some cheap recent punts like Durden and Luque who I made a case for, given their upside. Those guys also still showed they could fight hard for a little while.

I’m really not seeing it with Meerschaert. His path feels like a totally random, lucky punch landed that hurts Malkoun, which I can’t bet on. Or a sub, despite Malkoun being the clearly better wrestler. He is only +850 to win ITD.

Obviously odds are high on Malkoun for a reason, and there are plenty of live underdogs on this slate. I lean toward just crossing Meerschaert off the list personally.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Malkoun by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=High)

Colby Thicknesse vs. Vince Morales

Fight Odds: Thicknesse -125, Morales +105

Odds to end ITD: +195

DraftKings Salaries: Thicknesse 8.3k, Morales 7.9k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a wrestler vs boxer here in the bantamweight division as Colby Thicknesse will take on Vince Morales.

Colby Thicknesse is a grappler who utilizes a submission-heavy game built on a foundation of competitive wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He adopts a style that emphasizes constant pressure, technical wrestling chains, and fluid ground transitions. I don’t think he is the strongest wrestler but he is decent. He maintains a good pace, utilizing cardio and tenacity with some decent technical grappling. He won his last fight against Joasias Musas by just staying tough in the striking exchanges and eventually getting his takedown and beating up Musasa on the mat.

Despite his grappling, Thicknesse is a poor striker. He isn’t very dangerous on the feet and he can get landed on clean, and is borderline a liability on the feet. In his debut against Aleksandre Topuria, he struggled to find his range and was frequently rocked. Musasa also really beat him up on the feet as well.

Thicknesse is just going to be a guy who struggles on the feet for the most part but he can outwrestle below-average grapplers in this division.

Thicknesse will be taking on Vince Morales. Morales is basically just a boxer. He lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.00 in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent. 

Morales is fine and he is a pretty technical boxer with good hands. He also has moderate power. He thrives when he is going forward, pushing opponents back, and letting his hands go.

Morales doesn’t have much more than that though from an offensive standpoint and that is my main criticism of him. He doesn’t land takedowns at all really and only lands 0.59 takedowns per 15 minutes. He doesn’t really land many kicks either. He is reliant on winning by knockout or by winning semi-competitive striking fights so his ceiling is definitely limited.

Morales defends takedowns at 58 percent and is an okay defensive wrestler, and he has a Peruvian necktie and front choke game that he likes to go to. Morales can defensively wrestle a little and scramble up to a degree. However, he can be taken advantage of and controlled, and he conceded 4 takedowns against Rosas and 3 takedowns against Elijah Smith in his last two matchups. Those guys are pretty solid though.

As far as this matchup goes, I am going with Thicknesse just because even if Morales gets the fight he wants on the feet, Morales doesn’t always separate.

I think Thicknesse can land some takedowns here and potentially get some good positions. So those will be the ways he can win clean rounds. 

However, I don’t think Thicknesse is the best takedown artist and Morales has some level of competency defending takedowns and scrambling. So there could be stretches of striking here where Morales is probably a bit better.

The issue again is that Morales just may not let his hands go. So the striking exchanges could be somewhat uneventful which could make any grappling success Thicknesse has extremely valuable. That is ultimately why I am picking Thicknesse. Although I think Morales is fully capable of minimizing grappling and winning the striking exchanges, I don’t trust him to fully take advantage as much as he should.

—

On DraftKings, I’m not super interested in this fight compared to a lot of others in the mid-range.

Primarily, I see this fight hitting if we get a few busts from the boom/bust fights in the mid-range, which is still possible. And it should be noted that Thicknesse is a grappler so if he wins, his floor/ceiling is pretty strong.

Thicknesse is coming off a 91 point win over Musasa in which he was a big underdog heading into that third round. It wasn’t a dominant performance and he still topped 90 DK points. So at 8.3k, there’s a clear path to exceeding value.

Against Morales, I think Thicknesse can have some success and scoring 90 points again feels very much in play. Is that enough on this slate? I’m not sure.

What’s more concerning to me is that Musasa is just so green on the mat, and Morales is less green. Yes, he’s lost to Rosas and Smith but those are two good grapplers. In those losses, Morales only allowed 76 and 78 DK points, despite giving up 4 and 3 takedowns and 9 and 3 minutes of control.

I guess I’m just worried that Morales won’t get fully dominated here. If Thicknesse can take him down every round, hold him down and pound on him, he’ll crush. He’s still worth a secondary conversation because of his style. Morales can limit exchanges though and I think there’s a better chance Thickesse scores 80-90, rather than 110 or more.

Thicknesse is only +415 to win ITD which is a concern here too. It won’t matter if he dominates for three rounds, but I’m just a little skeptical.

I think Thicknesse is in play for the price tag and with a larger portfolio, I’d mix him in as a secondary play. I lean toward him not being a priority though and toward him failing to reach a true ceiling in this matchup.

Morales is priced at 7.9k and is just too expensive for what he offers.

I definitely think Morales can win. He has not scored 70 DK points in either of his two decision wins though, and he just doesn’t do a whole lot.

On this kind of slate, I don’t think 70-80 points is enough at 7.9k. Almost every other dog on the slate has 100 point upside in a win, which just means you’re parlaying Morales to win plus every other dog to lose.

You really just need a knockout, and Morales is only +365 to win ITD. I could argue he’s possibly sneaky for a knockout, if this is a true binary fight and maybe he will have a good shot to hurt Thicknesse. But it’s hard to bet on.

I think Morales is an OK contrarian target. If we assume he’s low owned, perhaps he’s a differentiator you need if all these dogs do fail. His win projection will just not be strong though, and he’s not a priority.

I’m ok with a sprinkle of Morales but I’d definitely rather chase the more obvious upside targets which surround him in price.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Morales by Decision (Confidence=-Low)

Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston

Fight Odds: Johnston -145, Schultz +125

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Johnston 8.5k, Schultz 7.7k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues as Wes Schultz looks to bounce back against UFC newcomer and hometown fighter, Ben Johnston. Let’s dive in.

Ben Johnston certainly wasn’t on my short list of UFC prospects but instead got to skip the DWCS test and make his debut for his hometown crowd this weekend. The 35-year-old City Kickboxing athlete (and coach) holds a record of 5-1 and has not fought since March of 2024 where he was part of the Eternal MMA promotion. 

Johnston actually retired in that last bout, but comes out of retirement for the UFC call and looks to set the hometown UFC crowd on fire. Johnston has actually been in lots of fun fights so far in his short career. He has a 100% finish rate, win or lose, and has never fought past the 8 minute mark. He has 4 submission wins and one KO win, meaning you would think he is a primary grappler but it’s actually his hands that are his best weapon. 

As a true City Kickboxing guy, his counters and power is pretty solid and he is able to move out of range. He hits hard and throws with fight-ending intention, but he himself can be countered and he was KO’d in 70 seconds in his one loss. 

The issue with Johnston has mostly been his level of competition. Two fights ago, he was taking on guys who are 0-2. Before that, 1-0. His one loss comes to a guy who’s now 7-4 and although that guy beat UFC vet Kevin Jousset, it’s still not a proud loss to have on your record. So yes, Johnston has solid power. He’s doing what he has to do against this low level of competition. 

Apparently the Australian regional scene can’t defend a rear naked choke, so he’s doing what he has to and putting them away. But he himself can be taken down. We saw that a few times in his last fight where he was taken down by some lesser competition. He does have a decent get-up game but I do worry about how he fares in scrambles against better levels of competition. 

However, I do like what I see on the feet. He’s got a solid frame and plenty of length, and I do think he has the ability to land big shots and find counters from range. If he were to pressure, he can find the big shots, but he does lack the hand speed and defensive tendencies you’d like to see from a primary striker. 

Overall, Johnston is another City Kickboxing prospect who’s got solid striking and good opportunistic finishing abilities, but we still question his durability, determination and level of competition, coming off a poor regional scene and retiring from the sport last time out.

Wes Schultz had a rough UFC debut, as he was KO’d in 2:30 by Damian Pinas in February. That was an unfortunate spot for Schultz, since I did think he had a wrestling path in that bout but was unable to get anything going and was rocked a few times before ultimately being KO’d. Now at 8-3, the 29 year old “Party Time” is at a bit of a tough spot right now. 

I do think he lacks the defensive striking to compete with the best of them, but has shown a couple times that he does have a dangerous ground game. We saw that in his win against Mario Mingaj, as he scored a very impressive first-round submission victory via Suloev Stretch in October. He was able to land a knockdown before transitioning to the back and threatening submissions there, accounting for his danger factor on the mat. 

That was his second attempt at a contract, as he was the unfortunate opponent of the up-and-coming Mansur Abdul-Malik in 2024. He actually made a decent account for himself in that matchup. Schultz was a massive underdog, but managed to scramble well, show solid durability and even threaten a finish against Mansur before ultimately slowing down himself and getting finished. 

Schultz is a primary grappler with a D3 wrestling background. Although he’s a bit awkward on the feet, he is pretty dangerous on the mat. Five of his 8 wins come via submission, and his 2 KO’s come via ground-and-pound as well. I’ll admit, his first layer of wrestling offense isn’t the best, but he is able to chain together attacks well and looks to instantly threaten people with submissions when down there. 

He now only has a 25% TD accuracy but is averaging 4.52 TDs per 15 minutes, albeit with a smaller sample size. It’s the striking that I have a lot of my questions about. Offensively, he’s not horrible. He looks awkward but is able to throw solid kicks and solid output, but he doesn’t carry much power and instead is looking to use it as a means to get opponents to the mat. 

Defensively though, his last fight was a really bad look. He was hurt by almost everything Pinas threw, as he was knocked down twice and was turtling whenever taking any damage. He was rolling for legs, pulling guard and just not responding well to the damage coming his way. Maybe that was just the power of Pinas, but I still worry about him on the feet for extended periods of time and while he’s absorbing 4.97 strikes per minute, that can be an issue down the road. 

Overall, Schultz is a decent wrestler with solid back takes and a wide arsenal of submissions, but his lack of physicality and poor striking defence may hold him back when taking steps up in competition.

This fight is a weird one. Johnston is a weird signing, coming out of retirement as a 5-1, 35 year old with a horrible level of competition. It must be the City Kickboxing connection, because he’s not someone who I think has proven himself yet. He does have some fun fights and the 100% finish rate helps him with his optics, but he’s not going to project as a long term prospect with that takedown defense, kill or be killed style or his age. 

Meanwhile, Schultz really let me down last time. He looked slow in his wrestling, couldn’t take a shot and was hurt multiple times, and that was only 63 days ago. So is it reasonable to see Johnston just hitting too hard, keeping Schultz at bay and finishing him like Pinas did? Of course. 

I don’t like how Schultz reacts to shots and Johnston throws with power and will have more physicality. But I also think it’s a bit tough to trust a 35-year-old Johnston coming out of retirement who hasn’t fought in over 2 years and who has not fought anyone of reason. We have seen Johnston taken down multiple times and now he gets a step up in a more dangerous back taker/wrestler and I think Schultz can take advantage of that discrepancy. A bit of a buy low spot here after his last loss, I’ll take the flyer on Schultz to wrestle here although Johnston may just be too powerful. 

—

On DraftKings, I feel somewhat obligated to play this fight although it could be gross.

The fight as a whole is -600 to end inside the distance so in some ways, it’s just another close your eyes and throw bullets at it type of matchup.

What makes it gross specifically is that Johnston doesn’t rate out as a strong prospect. He’s been fighting bad competition on the Aussie regionals and I don’t really think he’ll amount to anything.

However, did you see Schultz’ last fight? If not, you should watch. I thought he’d have a legit chance in that matchup against a very green opponent. In hindsight you’ll say the outcome was obvious but Schultz fought hard against Mansur Abdul-Malik, so it’s not as if he’s never seen a physical threat in front of him before.

In that last matchup, Schultz looked scared. I don’t throw that term around lightly. He was getting knocked down left and right, but it was more so him just falling to the canvas in fear than actually getting hurt. I think Schultz is a semi-capable fighter but the optics of that matchup look horrible to me, and based on those optics alone, I think it’s very possible that Johnston runs through him as well.

Johnston is priced at 8.5k and I think he’s a strong target for upside. He’s not very good but he is the more dangerous striker, and he has early knockout upside. He’s -105 to win ITD which is good for the price tag.

I wouldn’t expect any wrestling from Johnston and he might get held down early. He might just lose. He’s a decent fighter to bet against longterm. But yeah in this matchup, his most likely win condition may be a round one KO. I feel obligated to play him at 8.5k and will likely end up with moderate exposure.

Schultz is priced at 7.7k and is a fine play on paper.

I was burned badly by him in that last fight, so now I’m obviously hesitant to back him again. I do think he can land takedowns, but I just don’t know how I can trust him to actually win the fight.

Schultz will be a leverage play ultimately. I highly doubt he’ll be owned based on that last fight. He’s still +140 to win ITD which is great for the price tag. Assuming he’s in the teens or low 20s, it would be perfectly reasonable to come in overweight on Schultz for finishing equity and leverage against Johnston.

This is just a gross matchup. I think Johnston is the better fantasy target of the two but I’m not confident in his process or skills really. I’ll end up with mild exposure to Schultz but I can’t make him a real priority.

With the fight so likely to end ITD on paper, it’s a good spot to invest, but things could still go wrong and the fight could extend. It’s a decent spot to build around in mid-range constructions regardless.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnston by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

Jonathan Micallef vs. Themba Gorimbo

Fight Odds: Micallef -235, Gorimbo +200

Odds to end ITD: -155

DraftKings Salaries: Micallef 9.2k, Gorimbo 7k

Weight Class: 170

Australian prospect Jonathan Micallef will be looking to continue his hot UFC start with a matchup against Themba Gorimbo.

Micallef earned his contract on the Contender Series in 2024 with a first round triangle choke. Since then, he’s picked up two quality wins over Kevin Jousset and Oban Elliott, finishing Elliott with a RNC in the second round.

Micallef is now 9-1 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned two wins by knockout and four by submission. He wasn’t necessarily a top prospect coming into the UFC though so I’m still curious to see him fight more.

Prior to entering the UFC, Micallef fought in HEX where he was a champion. He wasn’t an early finisher, and only one of his seven fights before the Contender Series ended in the first round.

Micallef even fought in five round fights where he won a decision in his first attempt, and lost by TKO in the fourth round in his second attempt. He had some early wrestling success in that loss but was hurt a few times and the ref eventually had to step in. A lot of his regional tape isn’t available.

What we saw from Micallef in his UFC debut was pretty strong though. Fighting Southpaw, Micallef was firing kicks at distance for three rounds and looked pretty fluid. He outlanded Jousset comfortably 85-67 and knocked him down at one point. That was certainly the best win of Micallef’s early career.

Against Elliott, Micallef was outlanded in both rounds but got a takedown in round two, took the back and choked Elliott out.

I am still not completely sold on Micallef. I think he’s clearly best at kicking distance and I think that part of his game will continue to work. He can land in volume and win rounds, and he has some ability to do damage.

I also think Micallef’s jiu-jitsu is decent, but I still don’t consider him a strong wrestler. He’s defended three out of four takedowns thus far but it’s a small sample, and we don’t have a major sample from his regional time.

My best guess is that Micallef is somewhat overrated currently, given his recent success compared to his fighter profile. I view him as a solid, round-winning striker ultimately, but I feel like his upside is capped. I’m not sold on wrestling and I don’t view him as an elite finisher.

I’m happy to buy into his cardio and distance kicking game but I think we’ll see ups and downs from Micallef, depending on his level of competition.

He’ll be taking on Themba Gorimbo next who has been a favorite of mine for a while.

Mostly, I like that Gorimbo works hard in fights, and attempts a ton of takedowns. He’s not the best wrestler or grappler but he tries hard, and he’s won fights because of the effort.

In seven tracked UFC fights, Gorimbo is averaging 5.07 takedowns per 15 minutes which is really strong, and we’ve seen him land five or more takedowns in three of those fights, topping out at seven against Niko Price.

That is where Gorimbo is at his best. Landing takedowns in volume. Outworking guys on top, and showing his superior cardio.

Gorimbo isn’t particularly great at anything else though. Despite a couple of takedowns in his UFC debut, he ran into a guillotine in the second round and was submitted. He was also submitted very quickly by Vicente Luque in 2024.

Gorimbo is now coming off a loss to Jeremiah Wells which was competitive, and back-and-forth. Gorimbo actually still landed six takedowns, including four in the first round. But he got a bit tired, and was taken down and outgrappled late in the fight.

I find it interesting that only 19 percent of Gorimbo’s fight time has taken place at distance, which is an extremely low percentage. So although he’s landing 2.72 sig strikes per minute, there’s just not enough cage time for it to mean much.

Purely at distance, Gorimbo is landing 6.94 strikes per minute which is a ton, but again, that’s only been a few minutes. Assuming we get more distance exchanges going forward, I wouldn’t be comfortable that Gorimbo would win them.

I feel like this matchup is pretty straightforward though I’m not super confident in the outcome.

I think Micallef is the better distance striker. He’s proven it, and comparatively 88 percent of his fight time has taken place at distance. He’s still not really outlanding guys at an incredible rate. He actually has a -0.13 distance differential which is concerning, more so for a future matchup.

Assuming these two strike at distance, I would favor Micallef pretty comfortably. Gorimbo could do singular damage but there’s no reason to believe he can keep up with Micallef, and more likely Micallef beats him up with kicks and maybe even hurts him.

Gorimbo’s fights don’t really take place at distance though, which is where this gets interesting. Because yes, he’ll lose at distance but I don’t think he’s going to just cede a distance fight. He’ll try to clinch and wrestle as usual, where I think he can have some success.

We don’t have a big enough sample on Micallef but he was taken down on DWCS in the first round. I think Gorimbo could have early success here. It’s possible Gorimbo can just take him down over and over, win rounds, and win the fight. I do think that’s on the table.

However, I suspect Micallef is also the better submission grappler, meaning he may actually be able to defend himself or threaten from the bottom. I wouldn’t be that shocked if Micallef won again by triangle off his back, or something like that.

So while I’m open to the idea that Gorimbo can have wrestling success, I am also worried that path puts him in danger.

I don’t see a reason to be confident in Micallef longterm necessarily, but I think he’s a fair pick to win here because he’s the more likely fighter to do damage, and he can also bail himself out with submission grappling.

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On DraftKings, Micallef is priced up to 9.2k which is too expensive for my liking.

I will again say that Micallef isn’t really an early finisher. Of his nine fights, he’s won twice in round one, and twice in round two. The fact that he’s won ITD more recently does intrigue me and potentially means he’s improving, but I generally don’t consider Micallef to be the quick finisher type.

And so if the fight extends, at 9.2k, we’re probably in trouble here. Especially so because if it extends, it’s likely Gorimbo is having mild wrestling success.

Furthermore, when Micallef won on DWCS in round one, he only scored 102. In his second round finish in the UFC, he scored 87. In his decision, he scored 75.

So I’m pretty worried that an extended fight means Micallef will underperform, and will have trouble surpassing 100 DK points. He is actually +100 to win ITD which is decent, but the fight is still projected to see the third round.

To me, and I expect the public too, the fighters at the top have a better chance to smash, and there’s so many HW fights in the mid-range that Micallef just feels too expensive.

I view Micallef as a fine differentiator this week, and someone who I can roster if I can’t pay up further. I think scoring 90-105 points in a mid-round finish is on the table. I am concerned about his top-end ceiling and I think if the fight extends, his chances of being optimal are limited. He’s still somewhat viable as a pivot in this 9.3k-8.8k price range.

Gorimbo is priced at 7k and is someone I’m OK with mixing in for the price.

When Gorimbo wins, we’re likely to see big scores. He’s averaging a whopping 119 DK points per win because of his aggressive wrestling style. While I don’t think he wins this fight at a super high clip, we’re lacking on data for Micallef which opens things up.

Especially coming off two losses, the public won’t be as excited to play Gorimbo and it’s why he’s a sizable underdog. He still just landed six takedowns in a loss. I think he has a path to win here as well via wrestling.

Gorimbo is just a low end play, and a salary saver, but he’s on the table for that reason. I don’t expect him to finish at +450 ITD although I don’t think it matters if he does. He shouldn’t be a priority but he’s still mid-20s percentage implied to win the fight, and a lot of those times he’ll crush. I put him in the same tier as Tim Elliott as a cheap fighter with some win equity and grappling upside.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Micallef by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Kody Steele vs. Dom Mar Fan

Fight Odds: Steele -200, Fan +170

Odds to end ITD: +140

DraftKings Salaries: Steele 8.8k, Fan 7.4k

Weight Class: 155

We have a fairly low-level fight between former Contender Series winner Kody Steele and Road to UFC lightweight champion Dom Mar Fan.

Fan is 9-2 professionally at age 26, and he’s earned one win by knockout and three by submission. He came from Eternal MMA which is an Australian regional promotion, and both of his professional losses came to Quillan Salkilld by submission.

Fan is coming off a victory in the Road to UFC finals against Sangwook Kim, where Fan landed more strikes and the more effective ones over three rounds. I still wasn’t super impressed with Fan and don’t consider him a great prospect.

Entering that bout, I thought of Fan as a primary wrestler who prefers to spend his time in the clinch. He has some decent cage takedowns and a double leg, and he’ll look to land ground-and-pound on top or hunt for the NRC.

He’s somewhat lengthy and physical, and I think his wrestling is OK. He can beat lower-level grapplers and he’s decent when he’s in control. He’s just not the best pure wrestler and clearly has limitations, and his striking game seems quite limited as well.

In his first RTUFC fight, Fan won by decision, landing two takedowns with eight minutes of control. He also yielded four minutes of control in that fight. He was outlanded at distance 27 to 13.

In the semifinals, Fan won by decision in a back-and-forth affair. He landed three takedowns and earned 10 minutes of control, but also gave up four takedowns and three minutes of control. Fan reversed position three times and gave up one reversal.

So it was essentially a bout where both fighters had good enough offensive wrestling, and poor enough defensive wrestling that they were changing positions for 15 minutes. Fan can scramble well which is nice but I don’t love his pure takedown defense.

He is decent at chasing the back and has some finishing equity there. I’ve just seen him get his back taken a few times as well and both of his losses have come by RNC.

I’m happy to play Fan against really poor grapplers but I doubt he will go too far in this division with a relatively limited arsenal.

He’ll be taking on Kody Steele who is 7-1 professionally at age 31. He’s earned four wins by knockout and one by submission.

Steele won his contract on DWCS in 2024 with a second round knockout. He then lost in his UFC debut to Rongzhu by decision.

We may be in the position where I just have to auto fade everyone from the Contender Series at this point. I know historically Contender Series winners don’t fare well in their debuts, but even in the times I have hope, most of these fighters just don’t perform well.

Steele wasn’t an elite prospect coming into the UFC but he has dangerous tools. He’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and comes from a wrestling background.

He also has legit power in his hands and has shown the ability to hurt opponents. He will walk them down and land big shots, and he can attack multiple levels. He’s a pretty dangerous fighter in the pocket.

As a wrestler, Steele is only mediocre but he certainly has a path to winning on the mat. He can mix in double leg takedowns and I’ve seen him scramble well defensively too. He ultimately only has one win by submission so his finishing instincts on the mat haven’t been great.

I will say that Tim wrote this one up for his UFC debut and wasn’t super thrilled about his grappling pedigree. He can take the back and outwork some lower level guys, but Tim didn’t think his wrestling or control was strong enough to make a real impact in the division.

Ultimately, Steele isn’t wrestling at a high rate anyways. He’ll attempt about one takedown per round, which is something but not enough if his first shot fails.

What we saw in his debut was just that he’s too raw. Rongzhu isn’t a great fighter but Rongzhu was beating Steele up on the feet for the majority of the 15 minutes.

Steele did hurt Rongzhu in the first round, and perhaps it looked like the fight could be over soon after, but Rongzhu hurt Steele back immediately after that. From there, Rongzhu was just landing way more shots, backing Steele up with a jab, and it was clear Steele didn’t have the defense to defend himself properly.

Steele still fought to a decision and looked tough enough, but he got outlanded 125 to 59 and was only able to land one takedown where he was immediately reversed.

In this matchup, Steele is the favorite once again and it’s really uncomfortable to pick him with any confidence.

I can make a case for Steele at least. I think he’s the better grappler of the two. I think he’s the better wrestler. I think he can land takedowns, and take the back. Both of Fan’s losses have come by RNC so I think a RNC is in play here.

Steele just hasn’t historically won often by submission and doesn’t wrestle at a super high pace, so it’s hard to trust that outcome.

I suppose why I’m willing to pick him is because Fan seems unlikely to dominate on the mat either. I still view Fan as a primary grappler and he will need clinch wrestling success here to really stand out.

Go back and watch the fight with Kilmer on the regionals with Steele, which I think gives a fair expectation of his defensive skill. Steele got taken down a bunch in that fight and had his back taken a few times, but he was scrambling pretty aggressively and still won the decision.

Essentially, I think Fan might be able to land 2-3 takedowns here and take the back, but I expect Steele to scramble well through it and avoid dominating control.

On the feet, this will get tricky. Steele obviously has more power and is the dangerous boxer inside, but it’s quite possible Fan is just better at distance and can throw more over 15 minutes. This could turn out the same as in Steele’s last fight to be honest.

I don’t really view Fan as a legit distance fighter though and he’s not a major knockout threat, so I think the bigger shots will be coming from Steele. That, combined with his ability to land takedowns is enough for me to give him a slight edge. But it’s only a slight edge.

I think Steele is likely to have early success here, but let’s say he doesn’t finish the fight. As the rounds progress, I would assume Fan is more likely to earn some control, and more likely to have distance success when Steele’s power becomes less effective. We could definitely see Fan pick up a competitive decision at home.

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On DraftKings, I think Steele is likely to be a contrarian target at 8.8k.

Coming off the UFC debut loss, the public won’t want to play him. And there will be clear priorities like Rowston above him, and the HWs and main event fight in the tier below. Plus the guys at the top.

So my expectation is that Steele gets kind of lost in this range at 8.8k.

I could argue this is a good bounce back spot for tournaments. Steele has won ITD in five of his seven wins, and he’s +190 to win ITD here. He has some knockout equity and submission equity, and Fan isn’t super defensively sound either.

I think in win cases, Steele has upside. An early knockout or sub is definitely on the table. At a low public ownership, he’s a fine secondary or pivot target.

At the same time, I personally don’t have confidence he’ll get the job done, so it’s a tough spot to make a big investment in. I will look to pivot onto him or use him when I’m on chalk elsewhere, but I ultimately won’t be taking any major stand.

Fan is priced at 7.4k and is a solid, low-end secondary option.

Steele just did not look good enough in his UFC debut. Point blank. If he lost to Rongzhu, he could very well lose to Fan.

I don’t love Fan’s game, but in a win, he probably mixes in grappling, clinch striking, and some distance striking. He scored 92 points in his UFC debut which is a fair-ish expectation.

There are a couple of cheap fighters who can grapple and win. And there are a couple of fighters in this range with knockout upside. I don’t view Fan as a priority.

However, he slots more into the win equity mold where he’s only +180 to win. He can grapple some. He can win by decision. I wouldn’t bet on a finish at +550 to win ITD, but he’s not the type to need a finish to produce value.

So I like Fan as a low-end secondary target, at 7.4k, because he has win equity and can probably reach 80-90 points in a decision. He’ll get love coming off his UFC debut win but I’ll likely aim to mix him in around the field

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Steele by Decision (Confidence=Low)