UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis (9/28/24)
kleinNote: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Fight Odds: Saint Denis -291, Moicano +237
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Saint Denis 9k, Moicano 7.2k
Weight Class: 155
The UFC is back in action – this week in Paris, France as we get started on a multi-month run of events until Thanksgiving break.
Coming off a 10-fight UFC Noche card, the UFC has put together 14 fights for this weekend which includes a super fun main event between Renato Moicano, and home crowd favorite Benoit Saint Denis.
I was also asked this week whether I thought we had some difficult matchups to predict, and the truth is, I find most matchups difficult in one way or another. There is rarely anything easy that comes with predicting exact results when two men or women choose to throw down in the Octagon.
And that includes the main event this week. Despite Saint Denis hailing from France, and holding a sizable -270 betting line this week, I don’t feel particularly confident in the outcome.
Saint Denis is an aggressive freak, and that style which he employs in the Octagon has led to him breaking many opponents inside the distance. It’s a style that’s effective and one that I don’t mind betting on.
However, he pairs that aggressive nature with a lack of defense, which is not ideal. I was forced to point it out when he was a favorite last time against Dustin Poirier, who ultimately knocked him out in the second round after surviving an early attack.
That’s not the first time Saint Denis has been hurt either. He was horribly beaten up in his UFC debut by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, absorbing 149 sig. strikes in 15 minutes where he barely hung on until the final bell.
Since then, he was able to rattle off five consecutive wins, with each ending in round one or round two. He’s largely just marched through his opponents, swinging big, landing takedowns, controlling his opponents on the mat and hunting for the finish.
Again, that aggressive style, combined with wrestling and grappling tendencies, is effective and a worthwhile style to bet on.
But against an opponent who has some survivability, like Porier, Saint Denis found himself in more trouble. At range, he was a sitting duck by round two, where he was completely exhausted. He apparently had staph and had to take antibiotics prior to the event, which could be a reason why his cardio looked awful. I hate relying on the what-ifs though.
What I do know is that Saint Denis is now defending strikes at 42 percent, which is horrendous. He lands 5.70 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.98, which again shows a good pace, but his defense is really questionable.
Many of those strikes come on the ground too. Purely at range, BSD has just been brawling. He’s landing 7.4 sig. strikes per minute at distance while absorbing 8.7.
Only 44 percent of his fights take place at distance though, and instead he’s usually chasing a takedown. He lands 4.76 per 15 minutes, but that’s a bit skewed as he’s never topped three in a fight because his fights usually end early.
Regardless, BSD is a pretty physical wrestler, a force in top position, and he can produce a lot of offense or hunt for submissions which gives him a lot of finishing potential.
He’ll be taking on Renato Moicano this weekend who is a veteran of the sport, and has had many ups and downs in his career.
I actually really like Moicano and am coming off cashing on him as a sizable underdog in his last fight against Jalin Turner.
The reason I’ve always liked Moicano is because he’s a really good fighter. He’s a good wrestler, and a legit black belt in jiu-jitsu. And he’s a very skilled kickboxer, with strong metrics.
Moicano lands 4.38 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.68, with a 60 percent striking defense. He outstruck Calvin Kattar 116 to 41 back in 2018 which was his best performance to date, kicking at range while avoiding the boxing coming back in return.
He’s also won by RNC six times in the UFC. He lands 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a pretty strong back taker.
However, the primary issue with Moicano is that he gets hurt. Largely dating back to his days at featherweight, Moicano was badly hurt by Ortega, and then knocked out by Jose Aldo and The Korean Zombie (all great opponents). Then he moved to middleweight and was knocked out by Fiziev and badly hurt by RDA (great opponents).
Most recently, he survived a flush knockdown from Jalin Turner where Turner tried to walk off for the win, and the round ended shortly thereafter. Moicano rebounded in round two with a takedown and mount, and ended the fight there.
Point being, he gets hurt a lot. And it’s not really a technical defensive issue because his striking defense metrics are good, it’s more of a chin issue which is a harder problem to fix.
With that said, I get why Saint Denis is the favorite. He will rush forward, produce offense, and push a pace until he is dead. There is a reasonable chance that Moicano simply cannot survive that early attack.
Even if he can, with the fight being in Paris where Saint Denis is from, the crowd will be massively in favor of BSD and oftentimes that translates to the judges as well.
I doubt this fight goes the distance though. Saint Denis produces too much offense and I think he is likely to hurt, wear down, and beat up Moicano in a win. The other option is that Saint Denis gets tired or hurt attempting his crazy style, in which case Moicano probably capitalizes as finishes him.
The last thing I’ll note is that Saint Denis only defends takedowns at 69 percent. If Moicano tries to wrestle, he could succeed. Even Matt Frevola got BSD down twice in less than two minutes. That at least gives Moicano a path to surviving, or winning.
Likewise, Moicano defends takedowns at 72 percent. BSD won’t easily finish him on the mat but he probably can take him down. RDA took Moicano down five times in 25 minutes, though he failed to finish.
This is a difficult matchup for both sides in theory. Moicano is simply a better fighter than BSD, but Moicano’s most typical path to victory of takedowns and control, or a RNC won’t come easily. Conversely, BSD has a tough opponent in front of him who is skillful, experienced and won’t quit, but also one who can be broken.
I think I’ll lean toward Saint Denis to get an early start, and find a finish in round one or two. The chin of Moicano isn’t great, and I’m not convinced he can defend takedowns early either. But I certainly see a path for Moicano if he can survive some early exchanges and turn the momentum.
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On DraftKings, this is going to be one of the best fights to target on the slate, and I expect heavy public exposure despite there being more total fights than usual.
Saint Denis is priced up to 9k and he’s likely the top overall option on this slate.
In wins, he has scored 105, 136, 115, 149 and 109. It’s because he pushes a pace, grapples heavily, and throws lots of strikes. I don’t expect the fight to go five rounds but even if he won a decision, BSD would still produce a ton of total offense in a win and likely exceed value anyways.
More likely, he finds an early finish, and he carries one of the better ITD lines on the slate at -200. He’s also not extremely expensive compared to some high-priced options we’ve seen recently, and there are less guarantees in the top tier this week.
So I think the public will be very heavy on Saint Denis, and it makes sense to come in near the field, or potentially overweight, given the likelihood Saint Denis reaches the optimal in a victory.
I am not super confident he wins, but that won’t take me off the theoretical upside that Saint Denis carries.
If you are looking for a way to be unique, knowing there are 14 fights on the slate does also mean any one single winner has a worse chance to be optimal than what’s typical. He could look great, score 105, and just get topped by a couple randoms nearby.
The floor/ceiling combination for BSD is still elite, but the fact that there are 14 total fights also provides one risk factor.
I also like Moicano at 7.2k and will have mild-moderate exposure to him.
Given the pace, he’ll need to produce a lot of offense and likely find a finish to win. While that outcome may not come at an extremely high rate, clearly he has a path to it, and he’ll also carry leverage against a much more popular Saint Denis.
Moicano is +285 to win ITD which is very strong compared to his +235 money line, and he tends to grapple in wins. BSD also gets hit a lot so Moicano has KD equity as well.
You don’t have to be heavy on Moicano and with a super small portfolio, you can fade him if you like other dogs better. With a larger portfolio, I think he’s an easy secondary mix-in for main event exposure and leverage, and I don’t mind being slightly overweight if you are looking for a way to avoid the Saint Denis chalk.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Saint Denis by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen
Fight Odds: Imavov -213, Allen +180
Odds to Finish: -120
DraftKings Salaries: Imavov 8.9k, Allen 7.3k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Russian striker Nassourdine Imavov will make his return to the Octagon this weekend against Brendan Allen, after winning by knockout against Jared Cannonier a few months back.
Imavov is a bit different from his Russian comrades as he thrives offensively as a striker, and not as much as a wrestler. Although, he can do a little bit of everything and mix the martials as the kids say.
Imavov lands 4.58 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.33 in return. He defends strikes at a decent 59 percent. He has some power too as he knocked out plenty of guys on the regionals, hurt Phil Hawes several times, and knocked out Ian Heinisch who is generally a durable guy. I think Imavov’s power generally comes from his accuracy as he lands with precision and speed.
So far in the UFC, Imavov has definitely thrived as a range striker and I think he is a skilled and pretty dangerous one. In my opinion, he will be at an advantage at range against most guys. He is also just good defensively and doesn’t get hit with anything clean.
He has outlanded every fighter that he has faced in the UFC except Sean Strickland, so he has a good striking track record. He also just seems super tough and comfortable in striking exchanges and I can’t even recall him ever being in danger before.
Imavov is a competent grappler too though. He lands 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes and can float on top. He also has good front chokes. He also defends takedowns at 74 percent and overall is a competent defensive grappler. He landed three takedowns against Chris Curtis in eight minutes so he is clearly capable. I consider his cardio decent as well and it has been improving, as he has gathered experience in five round fights. He should be able to fight three rounds here no problem.
Imavov will be taking on Brendan Allen who is coming off a nail-biting split decision win against Chris Curtis. Allen is a big strong kid who generally thrives as a grappler.
Allen lands 1.74 takedowns per 15 minutes but only attempts three takedowns per 15 minutes, and sometimes strikes a little more than he should. His takedowns could be better, but he can take down a lot of guys.
Allen is a BJJ black belt and has a dangerous submission game from top position. He has actually won four of his last five fights by RNC, so he is a bit of a specialist and that submission is his specialty. I overall like him as a grappler, but I do think he could be a better pure takedown artist and more tenacious with his takedown attempts.
Allen is also a decent striker, but he is too hittable and raw for my liking. He lands 3.98 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.83 in return. He can land some occasional big shots. However, he defends strikes at 47 percent and good strikers can outslick him.
We have seen him knocked out by Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland. He even had some back-and-forth exchanges with Andre Muniz on the feet. So I do get a bit nervous for him when he strikes. He also just hasn’t ever outstruck an actual striker before.
As far as this matchup goes, I definitely think Imavov is more slick, dangerous, and skilled as a striker. He is just smoother and faster than Allen and has better defense overall. I just think Imavov will generally get the better of the striking exchanges and get ahead on the striking minutes. I also think Imavov has a durability advantage and has a good chance to hurt Allen or knock him out.
Allen could potentially land some takedowns here and threaten Imavov on the mat. However, Imavov is a pretty good wrestler defensively and has front chokes to potentially deter Allen. Allen may also just not wrestle enough to really challenge Imavov on the mat. I also think Imavov could take Allen down as Imavov is a capable wrestler and Allen only defends takedowns at 58 percent.
Allen is a dangerous guy and is competent everywhere so perhaps he can compete in general. However, Imavov probably has enough defensive wrestling and good enough striking to give Allen issues. So I think Imavov is the rightful favorite and my guess is that he gets his hand raised on Saturday.
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On DraftKings, both fighters have upside but I don’t expect this to be a fantasy goldmine unless one side gets a finish.
Imavov is priced up to 8.9k, and he’ll need an early knockout. I do think he’s capable of it as Allen is notoriously poor defensively, and he’s been knocked out early a couple of times.
Imavov could also have mild wrestling equity though I don’t think that will matter much. Allen should be the aggressor on the mat and Imavov will want to play a more cautious range game.
Imavov has won by TKO three times in the UFC, but never scored 100 points in any of those wins. His only 100 point win came from a five round decision, and he literally scored 100 and nothing more. So it shows his general offensive production is limited.
He’s still +145 to win ITD so his KO chances are reasonable here. I doubt he’ll be super popular on a large slate.
I consider Imavov a fine tournament target in the 8k range for knockout upside, but he’s pretty clearly boom or bust and it’s not the easiest path to the optimal, with a questionable top-end ceiling. I’ll only use him as a secondary/mix-in but I wouldn’t mind having some exposure.
Allen at 7.3k has more upside given his aggressive grappling style, but it’s also a tougher matchup.
He’s scored 111, 109, 118 and 107 in three-round matchups before, though those results largely came from quick finishes.
He is only +400 to win ITD here though and that’s the problem. I love Allen when he can shoot takedowns and wrap up a neck early, but this is a difficult spot and he oftentimes abandons his wrestling anyways.
I don’t think projecting Allen for 1.5 takedowns over three rounds is unreasonable, but it’s not really enough to reach a ceiling unless he can turn it into a submission. He can also compete on the feet, but Imavov is tough and won’t absorb a ton of strikes.
There is upside in the play on paper, but it’s not a great matchup for Allen to dominate and with so many other viable dogs on the slate, I only consider Allen a low-end secondary target who is viable due to savings.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Imavov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito
Fight Odds: Brito -300, Gomis +244
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Brito 9.2k, Gomis 7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting style matchup here as the aggressive Joanderson Brito will be taking on the neutralizer William Gomis.
I think a decent comparison for Brito is Deiveson Figuereido. He is your typical aggressive Brazilian who will come forward. Before his UFC debut, Brito had a decent regional run where he generally finished people with powerful strikes or by power submissions. He is pretty dangerous and capable of big moments. He has finished all five of his UFC opponents as well, so he is clearly a dangerous guy.
On the feet, Brito is not super skilled but he is explosive and fast twitched. He generally moves forward with pressure and kind of just wings bombs. He will also mix in some decent leg kicks as well. His leg kicks won him his last fight against Jack Shore as he damaged the legs en route to a TKO victory. I was actually impressed with Brito in that matchup and it was probably the best performance of his career.
Pressure is the main ingredient of Brito’s striking game. He is just constantly moving forward. I don’t totally trust him as a technical striker or round winner. However, I do think that he is capable of having big moments or keeping rounds competitive because of his aggression.
Brito also likes to mix in takedowns. He lands 3.11 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, a lot of his grappling success has come against poor wrestlers. I don’t think he is all that great as an offensive wrestler. He did clinch up Shore though and is a competent grappler in general.
Brito defends takedowns at 62 percent and has been controlled in fights before. I thought he did a decent job defending takedowns against Pearce honestly. However, Algeo controlled him and I do think he can lose fights via takedowns and control. He has a really dangerous guillotine choke though and he caught Pearce with it in their fight.
Brito will be taking on William Gomis. Gomis is a French fighter. He kind of reminds me of a poor man’s version of Aljamain Sterling. I have a soft spot for him because he cashed for me in his UFC debut and in his most recent fight against Yanis Ghemmouri.
Like Aljamain, Gomis likes to use an evasive awkward kicking game to just outpoint his opponents. It isn’t the prettiest thing in the world, but he is generally winning the striking exchanges on the scorecards. He lands 2.62 significant strikes per minute and absorbs a very low 1.49 and defends strikes at a really good 75 percent. He isn’t landing a ton of strikes but he minimizes engagements very well, mixes in his kicks decently and never gets hit too cleanly.
I want to point out he absorbed ZERO head strikes in 12 minutes of fighting against Ghemmouri which is pretty crazy, though Ghemmouri is low level.
I don’t think Gomis’ striking is great, but he is fast and it is adequate and effective. I do think he will get exposed by someone who is skilled or by someone who can make him uncomfortable though.
Gomis also likes to clinch up and occasionally wrestle. He landed three takedowns in his first UFC fight. He gets a lot of standing back takes where he either tries to put hooks in or just holds position. He can also occasionally mix in a double leg. He can hold position somewhat well and I consider his overall grappling game competent. I have also seen him scramble up well when taken down. Gomis is also just a good athlete. He is fast and can fight hard for 15 minutes.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think this is an interesting style clash. Brito is clearly the more dangerous and aggressive fighter while Gomis is maybe a little more defensively skilled in certain areas.
On the feet, I do think this could be close, especially early. Gomis may be better defensively and I do think he can land on Brito. However, Brito is just so much more damaging and with his leg kicks. I probably favor Brito just because he is so much more likely to hurt or damage Gomis. I don’t think Gomis overperforming is out of the question here though.
I doubt Gomis can take down Brito easily or control him. I also think Brito is more dangerous as a submission grappler. Seeing Marshall have success against Gomis late in their fight on the mat also makes me think Brito has some grappling upside here.
This is a weird one. I do think Gomis is skilled enough to compete everywhere, but I don’t think he is really capable of pulling away either. If Gomis wins, my guess is that he is doing just enough offensively while avoiding the offense of Brito and just winning a close fight. I think Brito is much more likely to finish Gomis or just dominate the fight based on physicality and explosion. So I do think Brito has a higher ceiling in this matchup and why I am picking him to win.
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On DraftKings, I expect Brito to be a popular pay-up option though I have my share of concerns.
Primarily, it projects to be a really slow-paced matchup. Gomis doesn’t really engage, and he’s absorbing less than 1.5 strikes per minute which is crazy low. He also defends takedowns at 81 percent.
Yes, Brito might still be able to rush through him and put him out, but it’s a pretty dangerous situation to be extremely invested in because Gomis will actively look to disengage and extend the fight.
If that happens at all, Brito simply won’t be accruing many points. He’s still a viable tournament target with a +115 ITD line, but this fight is actually -140 to go OVER 2.5 rounds, and that scares me.
I think you’re hoping that Brito can punish Gomis on the inside early, and Gomis just wilts. It is a possibility considering Gomis will play an outside game and may just not be suited to taking damage. So it still leaves the possibility open for Brito to land an early KO or maybe land a takedown and get a quick sub.
I do feel Brito is boom or bust though, and given his projected popularity, I probably won’t be matching the field. It’s also worth noting I’ve been lower on Brito than the public in the past.
Overall, Brito has a fun, explosive style with some grappling equity, and he’s put up great DK scores in the past. He can definitely reach a ceiling. This is a pretty risky matchup to overinvest though, and the odds back that up. I may rather choose to pivot away from Brito.
Gomis at 7k just doesn’t produce enough offense to get me excited.
I have had concerns with Brito in the past, which includes his takedown defense, and that’s possibly a path to victory for Gomis. It doesn’t look like an easy one though and at this point, I can’t project it.
More realistically, Gomis will neutralize, clinch, and disengage his way to some tight rounds and hope to win a decision at home in France. He has scored 80, 42 and 69 in his three WINS on DK which is just not good. And he’s +565 to win ITD here.
I don’t think Gomis will be played and perhaps his floor is adequate, but it’s tough to rely on a real ceiling which I am shooting for in large-field tournaments. He’s a low-end target with some leverage benefits but I won’t be investing much with a limited portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Brito by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle
Fight Odds: Battle -170, Jousset +146
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Battle 8.5k, Jousset 7.7k
Weight Class: 170
I’m a big fan of Bryan Battle and I’m looking forward to his matchup against Kevin Jousset this weekend.
Battle is one of the few success stories to come from The Ultimate Fighter in the past decade, and his starpower is higher than ever after he clowned on his last opponent Ange Loosa in the post-fight interview, when Loosa seemingly quit from a mild eye poke in the second round.
If we count that one as a win, it would make for Battle’s sixth win in seven UFC fights, with his only loss coming to Rinat Fakhretdinov in 2022.
Battle is a well-rounded fighter, a solid kickboxer and grappler, and someone who enjoys getting into physical altercations, meaning he will go out there and fight for your money.
It doesn’t mean Battle is flawless though. I worry about Battle’s defensive wrestling primarily. He’s been taken down by three of his opponents, and he lost dominantly to Fakhretdinov, who took him down seven times and controlled him for 14 minutes and 11 seconds of their 15-minute fight.
Battle is tall and long for the division, which is a positive in some aspects, but oftentimes those fighters will be susceptible to wrestlers as well. Battle is only defending takedowns at 47 percent and I’m pretty confident good wrestlers will be able to control him moving forward.
However, Battle is not lost on the mat, and he’s actually a very competent submission grappler. He actually holds five of his 10 pro wins by submission, and he’s more than capable of wrapping up a neck.
Battle is also very tough, with good cardio, which means that even if he starts slow, he can come from behind and win. He’s pulled off a couple of comeback submission wins in the UFC already, and he had one on The Ultimate Fighter against Andre Petroski as well.
And when Battle gets to strike at distance, he’s competent, and dangerous at times. His long limbs give him a reach advantage over most opponents and he can also throw strikes at a pretty high volume.
Overall, I consider Battle a quality fighter who carries some strong X factors in his game, but his subpar wrestling will probably give him more issues as he takes steps up in the division.
Kevin Jousset shares the same pro record as Battle at 10-2, and will be the home crowd favorite as the French national.
Jousset has only fought twice in the UFC though, and this will be a major step up in competition from his previous opponents. Jousset previously beat Kiefer Crosbie by submission in his debut last September, and then solidly beat Song Kenan by decision in December.
Jousset profiles as a mid-level distance striker, who can compete in rounds against an average class of opponent, and maybe find some damage along the way.
He’s technically sufficient offensively, but his overall style does make me nervous. His stance is a bit rigid, and he doesn’t keep his hands up well enough for my liking.
But again he’s capable offensively, and he throws with some power in his hands and legs. He doesn’t really fight aggressively and hunt for the finish, so he’ll look to maintain that kicking range and force his opponents to come inside.
In that, he can damage them, but I wouldn’t label him an elite knockout threat. Only one of his last seven fights have actually ended by knockout, and that came from ground-and-pound, so it should tell you his ceiling as a pure striker.
Defensively, his stance makes him susceptible to taking damage against pressure fighters, and I’ve seen him mildly hurt before. Opponents who throw volume will contend with him just fine too.
I should note that in his two UFC fights, Jousset has looked pretty good. He’s coming off the win against Song where Joussett landed 134 sig. strikes to Song’s 62, which is a pacing I respect. Jousset also landed 41 leg kicks in that fight which is a great tool to have.
If he can continue to maintain distance, Jousset can be effective. It’s just that Song is a notoriously poor volume fighter who’s reliant on one big shot, so that’s honestly a near perfect opponent to put together a good game plan against. Battle will be tougher.
Jousset actually comes from a grappling background too where he’s a black belt in Judo, though it hasn’t played a major role in his recent fights. His wrestling looks pretty suspect to me, and he’s only attempted three takedowns in 20 minutes of cage time, landing two of them for two minutes of control.
I’ve seen him land a couple of takedowns on the regional scene and he’s not horrible, but he’s not an elite wrestling presence either.
He hasn’t really been tested defensively, but I wouldn’t expect Jousset to be great on the ground. He can probably defend weak opponents just fine but good wrestlers and grapplers should have advantages over him.
As far as the matchup, this fight should tell us a lot more about Jousset’s potential than what we know so far.
I do think Jousset can win again in a similar fashion to his last fight. Throwing lots of total strikes, pumping the jab and throwing leg kicks. Battle will have a two-inch reach advantage though, so Jousset won’t be as comfortable at distance as he usually is.
Battle will also pressure him, and probably force a more ugly fight. If that happens, I expect Battle to be a bit more effective, and he’ll have a better chance to hurt Jousset than vice versa.
Neither side projects to wrestle in volume, but both can probably take down the other. Of the two, I think Battle would have more upside in top position, though I’m not certain how easy or how often he’ll get there.
It’s honestly a competitive fight on paper. Jousset has some good range tools that can win rounds, and he’s fighting at home in France. Battle is a very clear step up in competition for him, but Battle isn’t necessarily the most processed guy in the world.
I want to give Jousset credit and note that this is a winnable matchup for him, despite the step up. I would expect him to have a decent start, but in a win, it would probably be ultra-competitive and go the full distance.
I will still lean toward Battle overall, as I feel he’s the better pure fighter of the two, and I trust him much more when he faces adversity. My biggest fear is that he fights slow and gets leg kicked to death, but he will be longer than Jousset and he’s a more dangerous finisher in all areas.
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On DraftKings, I’m not sold this is a fight I want to attack.
Battle is priced at 8.5k, and he has more finishing upside on paper. He has wins of 126, 128 and 103 in his UFC career, which is an indication of the upside. However in his one decision win, Battle has only scored 87.
It’s a bit difficult because Battle is capable of throwing volume, but Jousset manages distance well and probably won’t engage in a brawl. I think Battle has mild wrestling equity but not as much potential to dominate.
I’d want to roster Battle in a situation where he can break Jousset pretty early in the fight and find a finish. That is definitely possible and I respect the threat of Battle. He’s only +250 to win ITD though, and his path to the finish is a bit murky.
So largely, I consider Battle a boom or bust option at 8.5k. It’s not that he has no floor, but it’s more that on a 14-fight slate, we need smash scores to be optimal, and I’m not extremely confident that Battle can smash through Jousset.
I am willing to play him, but more as a pricing target than someone I’m actively trying to get exposure to. I wouldn’t mind ending up near the field, but I don’t expect to have any major overweight position.
Jousset at 7.7k is a bit of a tough call because he has smashed in both of his UFC wins. He put up 110 in his debut and another 96 in his most recent decision win.
I don’t think those outcomes mean a whole lot in terms of this matchup, because his chances of winning ITD are far worse at +475. I also would not expect him to land 130+ sig. strikes.
However, if Jousset wins, he’ll have to produce a fair amount of offense. He could land lots of leg strikes which add up, and would give him a decent floor. I mentioned the question marks in Battle’s wrestling so maybe that is a sneaky path to victory for Jousset.
I’m not fully discounting the idea that Jousset could put together a decent night in both areas and top 90 DK points in total. I just really don’t think his chances of winning ITD are strong, so I’m worried about the ceiling in that sense, and it’s a tough matchup.
Jousset rates out as a fine secondary target in my eyes and he may even have sneaky win equity compared to his ML. He saves some salary, and can compete, so he’s viable at his price tag.
But I’m not sold on the matchup or upside and I’ll be just as willing to spread my exposure and take risks elsewhere.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Battle by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda
Fight Odds: Charriere -679, Miranda +475
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Charriere 9.5k, Miranda 6.7k
Weight Class: 145
One of the better French prospects in the promotion, Morgan Charriere will have the spotlight upon him as he takes on Brazil’s Gabriel Miranda.
Charriere is 19-10 professionally with 11 wins by knockout and three by submission, and he’s 1-1 in the UFC thus far. He won his debut over Manolo Zucchini by TKO, and recently lost a split decision against Chepe Mariscal.
Charriere is a primary striker, who excels with his hands, and also has a respectable kicking game. He’s not an extremely high-paced striker though, and is coming off the loss where he was only able to land 49 sig. strikes in 15 minutes.
He is effective though, and capable of hurting opponents. When he’s able to get stand-up affairs against weak competition, he will have potential to run through them, similar to what we saw in his debut.
However as he takes steps up in competition, his lack of volume will likely contribute to competitive rounds, and he’s been hit frequently enough as well to the point where he can take some damage.
On the ground, Charriere is capable but I’m not sure that’s a strong suit of his either. He’s lost by decision nine times, and has been taken down in a handful of those losses.
Against Mariscal, Charriere defended seven of eight takedown attempts, but still allowed a takedown and reversal and several minutes of control time. I thought he scrambled well in that fight but the point remains that he’s not likely to dominate in that area, and will be susceptible to being put on his butt by stronger wrestlers.
Overall, I’d consider Charriere an effective striker who can occasionally mix in ground success, but I’m just not sure he’s going to be able to separate himself against the majority of the division.
Gabriel Miranda had a rough start to his UFC career, where he faced off with Benoit Saint Denis in 2022, and suffered three knockdowns in the first six minutes before the ref eventually stepped in.
However he is coming off a 59-second submission over Shane Young, and that type of performance is largely what we should expect for Miranda in wins.
Miranda is 17-6 professionally with 16 wins by submission, and one by TKO. He has never won a decision and he’s 34 years old now, so I’m not necessarily expecting any developments.
Miranda is a quality submission grappler though and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He was able to take the back of Young quite easily in his most recent fight, and finished with a RNC from there.
It’s simply a question of whether Miranda is capable of anything else. He will throw aggressively some times, but he’s clearly hittable and doesn’t seem to take damage well. There’s no real way to count on consistent volume or round winning ability.
Miranda in all likelihood needs an early TD, and an early submission. It may not even be a processed one as he is also willing to jump on guillotine chokes. It’s just extremely difficult to trust him in an extended fight.
His wrestling also isn’t the best, which makes his path to victory tough to trust at this level. He can even fall to his back at times trying to get a submission, which I wouldn’t’ be surprised to see here.
With that said, he was able to take Saint Denis down, and he was able to take Shane Young down. He will at least try to wrestle, which is half the battle, and still gives him a path to victory.
Against Charriere, I still have to believe that Miranda will need early success to get his hand raised.
Charriere seems like a far more competent round winner and I’d trust him far more in extended fights. He’s also the clearly superior technical striker and should be far more effective than Miranda.
Miranda has only lost twice by TKO, but based on what I saw against BSD, I would not be surprised if he added to that total against quality UFC competition.
I am unsure what belt Charriere has in jiu-jitsu, if any, but that’s clearly where there is concern for him in this fight. If he allows Miranda to get on top of him, Miranda could take his back, or jump on a choke in transition.
Charriere looked pretty competent defending takedowns from Mariscal though and he scrambled with him well too. From my eye, it seemed liked Charriere had a basic understanding of what was happening on the mat.
I don’t know if he will be able to threaten Miranda if Miranda pulls guard, for example, but I have some faith he can limit the takedown success from Miranda early, and that’s all it should take.
Charriere will just want to extend this fight a bit where he can force stand-up exchanges and hurt Miranda. In France, my best guess is that he will pull away by the second round and probably find the knockout.
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On DraftKings, Charriere is priced up to 9.5k which is a little tough to pay.
The upside is really that he has a legitimate chance to win ITD, and it could come early. He is -190 to win ITD which is one of the best lines on this slate.
The fight is also -160 to go over 1.5 rounds, which is the concern for me as Charriere doesn’t produce a ton of offense. I am worried that he will need to defend early, which will limit his striking upside, and he may even spend time on the mat if Miranda pulls him there.
Conversely, Miranda was dropped 3x in his debut so maybe Charriere has multiple knockdown upside.
Regardless, he will need that finish to contend for the optimal at this price. I’d prefer it come in round one, though round two is still possible if he can find multiple knockdowns or lots of strikes along the way.
It still feels somewhat boom or bust though, which is tough for me to rely on at an expensive price tag, and I don’t think I will aim to prioritize Charriere outright.
I expect his floor in a win will be fairly strong, and given his ITD upside, Charriere still makes for a decent tournament target. The matchup especially is a positive for Charriere in the sense that he has an opponent in front of him who is all gas early, and has been TKOd before.
It’s still a bit risky to invest heavily and I’m unsure about the top-end upside given Charriere’s style, but the matchup itself should lead to a strong performance and a decent DK score.
Miranda at 6.7k is a fine tournament punt, though it’s hard to be excited. He is one of the biggest dogs on the slate, and has basically no equity in an extended fight.
The positive is that if he wins, it’s likely by early submission. We just saw that and Miranda scored 122 points, so if he wins again on Saturday, I do think he contends for the optimal lineup.
Also, Miranda is a decent grappler and Charriere isn’t incredible there. It’s not out of the question for Miranda to have some success early.. So if you have a large enough portfolio to work with, I don’t mind a sprinkle of Miranda when shooting for upside on a large slate.
Ultimately, he’s still a dart throw, and I’d still prefer to pay up for more win equity when possible.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Charriere by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola
Fight Odds: Ziam -126, Frevola +110
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Frevola 8.2k, Ziam 8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here as Fares Ziam will take on the always entertaining Matt Frevola.
I have never been the biggest fan of Ziam’s game because he just doesn’t land a ton of offense. He isn’t reliable to wrestle and only lands 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes. He did at least land three takedowns against Michael Figlak and showed a decent ability to control top position in that fight.
Furthermore, Ziam only lands 2.70 significant strikes per minute and has landed 10, 47, 39, 60, 61, and 31 significant strikes in his six decisions in the UFC. He managed to win five of those fights, but that is just not enough offense to clearly win fights at this level.
Ziam does only absorb 1.72 significant strikes in return and defends strikes at 65 percent though. So he is landing more strikes than he absorbs and is sound defensively. He doubled up Michael Figlak and outlanded Jai Herbert 61-49 so he is still capable. Still, the lack of offensive production makes me nervous.
Ziam is best as a kickboxer and although I hate his volume, I do think he is decent technically. He is rangy with his 6’1” frame and can use his kicking game and jab to outslick his opponents. Striking based decisions will be his most likely path to victory at this level. I know I am shitting on the guy but he has just been managing to win a lot of fights. I also think he is a tough kid and I haven’t seen him hurt often.
I still worry about Ziam’s volume though along with his lack of physicality and defensive grappling. He defends takedowns at 67 percent which is decent. However, he has been taken down in several fights and can be exposed by decent grapplers.
Ziam will be taking on Matt Frevola. Getting finished early or hurt is kind of an issue with Frevola. He has been knocked out and hurt several times so it is always a thing to make Frevola backers a little nervous. However, Frevola is decent if his fights get extended as he is a competent grappler with a decent gas tank.
Frevola is a competent grappler and wrestler. He lands 2.59 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of landing takedowns against weak grapplers. I don’t think his wrestling is great, but it is okay. He only defends takedowns at 42 percent and can be taken down. He is tough to hold down though and will work back up. He has also never been submitted in his career. He can give up his back though.
Frevola isn’t a great striker from a round winning perspective. He has chin issues and his metrics are not great. He lands 3.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.57 in return. He has never landed more than 66 significant strikes in a three round fight. Frevola is more power based than volume based. He has a lot of power in the pocket though and has won his last three fights by first round knockout.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Frevola has a little wrestling upside here. So if this fight goes 15 minutes, Frevola may just sneak out a victory by landing some takedowns here and there and burning the clock.
However, Frevola may not even wrestle here. Frevola has literally made twitter polls before fights in the past asking how he should fight lol. So he may strike with Ziam and even though Ziam has volume issues, I do favor Ziam standing in this matchup. I just think Ziam is more durable than Frevola on the feet and better defensively. I also just think Ziam is a more technical and lengthy striker. So if this stays standing, I do think Ziam will be winning the fight even with volume concerns.
Also, I know Ziam isn’t a great defensive wrestler. However, he has been improving. He is capable of sprawling, scrambling up, using overhooks, etc. I also just don’t think Frevola is one to go out there and easily land takedowns and easily ride out top position bell to bell. I think Frevola will have to strike even if he fights with an optimal wrestling gameplan.
So I am going to go with Ziam here. I think Ziam is a better striker with better durability. Frevola may be too dumb to wrestle and even if Frevola wrestles, he may get his wrestling resisted to a degree.
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On DraftKings, this is a weird one as the lines are flipped with Frevola at 8.2k and Ziam at 8k, despite Ziam being a slight -125 favorite.
I always look for a way to invest in wrestling upside, and there’s no doubt Frevola has it in this matchup. He comes from a wrestling background, averages more than 2.5 per 15 minutes, and that is Ziam’s weakness.
Frevola just isn’t the best game planner though. He’s had a taste of KO success and he’s hunted for it recently. I really, really do not actually trust he will wrestle with urgency.
At the same time, he just took Saint Denis down easily a couple times and it’s hard not to watch Ziam give up seven takedowns to Claudio Puelles, and think Frevola’s best path to victory is striking. It’s plainly obvious he should wrestle.
I do think that puts him in play. In theory, Frevola can land 4-6 takedowns. He beat Jalin Turner who’s a top prospect while landing four takedowns. He also doesn’t do a whole lot else and still only put up 85 in that win.
His other big scores are quick KOs which I really don’t buy as a path to victory for him ever, let alone against Ziam. Frevola is only +300 to win ITD.
It’s just a weird spot. Frevola can absolutely win this fight, with takedowns. I’m still concerned by the ceiling even if he does it, and I don’t think he has much finishing equity. I would lean toward playing him lightly or as a secondary target, rather than actively forcing him in, but the wrestling advantage makes me a bit nervous.
Ziam on the other hand is the value side at 8k, but I’ve almost never rostered him at any point throughout his seven-fight UFC career because he doesn’t produce much offense. He’s won five times, and only reached 70 points once. That one time was a 96-point score where he randomly wrestled.
I highly doubt Ziam looks to wrestle much here and I wouldn’t care a whole lot if he did, as I don’t think he’ll have an easy time holding Frevola down.
Where his upside really comes into play is in the fact that Frevola gets hurt early a lot. Frevola has failed to win five of his 11 UFC fights, and he’s been knocked down six times in those five fights. Three times he was KOd quickly.
In hindsight, losing to Saint Denis and McKinney makes sense, but he was dropped four times by Lando Vannata and Polo Reyes, which is a far worse level of competition.
With that said, Ziam might be able to put him out early. I really wouldn’t be surprised because Frevola doesn’t take damage well. He’s also tough as hell and will fight through adversity. He even earned a draw one time where he was dropped twice.
Ziam is only +185 to win ITD and extremely boom or bust, and probably not a fighter you should rely on. He just doesn’t produce much offense and has shown no finishing ability at any point. That could still change though.
I think it’s fine to use some of Ziam, just in case. If Frevola doesn’t wrestle, he could be in danger, and variance could come into play. Ziam may be owned a bit as the value but due to his weak box scores, he shouldn’t be chalk. I would mix him into tournaments but it feels extremely risky to take a really strong position this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ziam by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Ion Cutelaba vs. Ivan Erslan
Fight Odds: Erslan -112, Cutelaba -103
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Cutelaba 8.3k, Erslan 7.9k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two meatheads here in UFC veteran Ion Cutelaba and UFC debutant Ivan Erslan.
We all know Cutelaba. He has been in the UFC forever. Man, Cutelaba has had a rough run. He has lost seven of his last nine fights.
Cutelaba is kind of a brawler / wrestler. He lands 4.17 takedowns per 15 minutes which is quite good. He can definitely take down weak grapplers, and have his way with them on the mat and land good GNP. However, I don’t consider his grappling all that technical and I don’t expect him to out wrestle any good wrestlers.
Cutelaba is also kind of a bit of a liability defensively as a grappler, especially from a submission grappling perspective. He defends takedowns at 76 percent which is solid and I consider his first layer TDD pretty good. However, he has been submitted three times in the last four years and I kind of worry about him when he is grounded on his back. He can be exploited there.
On the feet, Cutelaba is okay and is more of a brawler than anything else. He lands 4.44 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.43 in return. Those are decent metrics but I think they are skewed as a lot of Cutelaba’s striking success comes from GNP. He only defends strikes at 47 percent and I don’t completely trust his durability. He did still show he was dangerous recently when he knocked out Tanner Boser. There is just a lot of variance in Cutelaba’s fights as he gets finished often but he is dangerous himself.
Cutelaba will be taking on Ivan Erslan who will be making his UFC debut. Erslan is a Croatian fighter who is 14-3 professionally. He has fought in a lot of promotions, but most of his recent fights have come in KSW which is a solid promotion based in Eastern Europe.
Erslan basically looks like a power striker who likes to throw fast hooks and 1-2s in the pocket. He is pretty dangerous and has 10 wins by knockout. I think he is knockout capable at this level and that will likely be his main path to victory in the UFC.
I haven’t really seen Erslan do much other than look to strike. He only has one submission and I generally don’t see him look to land takedowns. I see him in top position from time to time but it is generally because he has an opponent hurt from a striking exchange. I do think he is powerful in top position though with his ground and pound.
Other than that, I don’t think Erslan looks all that good and he does have some flaws. I have seen him in extended striking exchanges and he does have low volume at times. He does look like he can remain dangerous for a few rounds though.
I have questions about Erslan’s defensive grappling. It honestly hasn’t been tested all that much. He has an okay sprawl at times, but I saw some bad defensive wrestling from him in the past. However, most of that tape was over five years ago so who knows how it looks now. He was submitted in 2020 and his defensive grappling looked poor. However, he was badly hurt from a striking exchange so I am not really sure. I saw him scramble to his feet more recently which looked promising. His defensive grappling is a bit of a question mark for me.
I do think Erslan has some suspect durability too. It isn’t awful, but I have seen him finished a couple of times and hurt in other fights. So he is a candidate to be knocked out.
As far as this matchup goes, this looks like a shit show. Both of these guys are dangerous standing but both have been hurt and knocked out as well. They are clearly both capable of knocking each other out.
To me, I probably favor Erslan on the feet slightly. He seems a little more durable and dangerous and consistently seems to hurt people more. I especially favor him on the feet early, and I do think he could realistically knock out Cutelaba quickly here. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.
However, Cutelaba is just so much more experienced than Erslan and may have a big wrestling advantage. Cutelaba has fought everyone and is arguably one of the best wrestlers that Erslan has faced. If Erslan just can’t stop the takedowns and gets mauled on the mat, I wouldn’t be shocked at all.
I do think if Erslan ends up in top position though, he could finish Cutelaba. Cutelaba is just very vulnerable off his back and tends to get finished on the mat.
This is just a very chaotic fight. Both guys are very untrustworthy for several reasons. Cutelaba gets knocked out often, sometimes quits, and just generally finds many ways to lose fights.
Erslan on the other hand can get hurt, is unproven, and is potentially a defensive grappling liability. It is just very easy to imagine either guy losing in a variety of ways here.
I am going to go with Cutelaba because he has more experience though and likely has more paths to victory. This is a sketchy fight though and I want nothing to do with it from a betting perspective.
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On DraftKings, I think this will be a priority fight for most people and should be one of the higher owned matchups on the slate.
We’re getting mid-range prices with Cutelaba at 8.3k and Erslan at 7.9k, in a fight that’s -600 to end inside the distance. That says about all we need to know.
The difficult part is in projecting who is going to win, and ultimately, there is a reason why the fight is lined as an essential pick’em. Tim laid out the problems well and I honestly don’t have a strong lean.
Cutelaba is notorious for brawling early, wrestling and winning by TKO, and if that fails to occur, he gets tired and often puts himself into a submission. Erslan looks like a capable boxer, but he’s far less tested than Cutelaba and probably more limited to his boxing as well.
Most likely, I’m going to target this fight fairly aggressively, but split my exposure so as to not have to worry about the sweat.
Cutelaba is priced at 8.3k and is +105 to win ITD. He has a history of big scores, and he also has grappling equity. If I had to choose, he’s my preferred target. He’s also lost a lot recently which may mean the public will be scared off to a degree.
Erslan is +130 to win ITD and should be super boom or bust. Clearly I believe he’s capable of hitting a ceiling, but it just feels like a true roll of the die. My gut feeling is that he could be more popular than Cutelaba due to the salary savings and Cutelaba’s recent form.
If you want to take a stand, go for it. It’s not wrong to lean moderately in one direction even if the fight is a true pick’em, it just adds more risk to your portfolio. Both sides have early finishing potential though.
I should also note that this fight is very likely to bust if it extends, which it could. I’ve seen Erslan be cautious before, and Cutelaba just lost a decision to Phillipe Lins. There are 13 other winners on the slate and if we + the public all jam this fight in and it busts, that’s going to be frustrating. I don’t hate the idea of carving out a percentage of lineups that fade this fight in large-fields, just in case.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cutelaba by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Oumar Sy vs. Da Woon Jung
Fight Odds: Sy -589, Jung +425
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Sy 9.4k, Jung 6.8k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Oumar Sy is a French national who spent his career fighting on the European regional scene. He’ll be entering his 2nd fight in the promotion after making quick work in his debut back in May – he’s 10-0 as a pro. Da Woon Jung is now in his 6th year on the active roster and after a hot start to his run he’s cooled off, now riding a 3-fight skid – he’s 4-3-1 in the UFC and 15-5-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Sy’s a floor player by base who’s realized a lot of ground success, so we still don’t have a ton of footage to go on.
In the bit we have, I don’t want to say he seems uncomfortable because that’s not the right way to describe it. He more so just stays on the outside, moves, and fires a few kicks to try to keep range.
His punching is largely used for the sole purpose of closing to distance to set up his TDs.
So, he’s not a guy who’s looking to get into extended exchanges and he hasn’t shown any real distance power capabilities.
His general style has kept him pretty safe through his career so far, but he got cracked badly in his 4th pro fight against Skvor. To his credit he fought through it but was also eating bigger knees coming in as well.
Overall, that’s about all we have with Sy at this point.
Jung is a striker by nature who also possesses bigger power components, finishing 11 of his 15 pro wins via strikes.
He can play at range or walk guys down when he so chooses.
He utilizes straight shots well, complemented with a good uppercut and elbows in the clinch (has hurt multiple guys with those in the past – most notably Alvey twice and Nzechukwu). His best tool is that right cross though.
In his eight UFC fights, his offensive metrics aren’t great at 3.5 SLpM at 43% and 4.4 DLpM at 39%.
Defensively, he eats 3.9 SApM at 51% and 5.2 DApM at 54% — also not great .
We saw Alvey have a lot of success from the back foot with the counter against him, but the bigger shots did come from Jung in what forced a controversial draw.
He was just at a technical disadvantage against Jacoby, ate some hard leg kicks and got put down with a combo early, suffering his first career KO loss.
More recently, he had good kicking success against Ulberg and competed on the feet but was getting outboxed and also got hurt in the 1st round.
Overall, Jung’s kind of meh on the feet but he’s got heavy hands and can be technical at times, but he also struggles defensively.
How it plays out: Despite some of Jung’s struggles in the UFC, he still projects as the better striker in this matchup as a more proven distance commodity who’s also a power threat. The problem is more so with the pacing of Jung, but I haven’t seen much from Sy on the feet to suggest he’ll win clean exchanges or knock Jung out. The real key for Jung is to provide effective pressure.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Sy’s official background or ground credentials but the floor is where his bread is buttered.
He’s a pretty long guy for the weight class but he changes levels well and excels specifically to legs in securing his TDs with doubles or chain wrestle rides to the back.
The issue I have seen with Sy is that he can shoot from too far out at times – I think that’s partially due to the fact that he’s not a great striker so he can telegraph entries.
But his general success rate when he’s able to get in is high.
I’d actually say that his general grappling is better than his wrestling though.
He clearly meshes the two together but has a good understanding of weight distribution, controlling limbs and making his opponents go where he wants them to go.
He’s also a guy who will use body triangles religiously which is something that I love to see.
So, if opponents give the back, he’ll take it. If not, he’s fine to continue to just land damage from top positions to force additional mistakes. As a result, he’s finished 8 of 10 pro wins on the floor either via TKO or SUB.
With all that being said, I have seen him lose positions on more than one occasion if he gets too overzealous. However, he’s not one to hang out on bottom to where he’ll force scrambles, get to a hip to reshoot or sweep his opponents.
Overall, Sy’s style is going to be very difficult to deal with generally but especially at a division like 205 which is not known for its grappling prowess.
We haven’t seen a ton of wrestling from Jung in the UFC until his fight against Knight where he went 8/9 on TDs and got 12+ minutes of control time – just cooked the dude through passing and GNP – really excellent performance.
He’s only a blue belt in BJJ but going back regionally, he does have a submission or two and has finished fights via GNP before as well.
The sample isn’t large, but he’s looked strong largely every time he’s been in top position in terms of positional control, whilst also still doing work.
He only went for 1/5 against Clark and did lose position the one time he got him down though.
His TDD has been pretty solid as well, stuffing at a 77% clip.
Khadis went 1/6 and only got roughly a minute of control on the TD – Jung was able to work up quickly in the times he was grounded though. We also saw Jung do well in body lock positions against Knight who is very physically strong.
The Clark fight was just a grind for both guys and a really disgusting fight overall, but Jung did get taken down three times there and ate a healthy amount of GNP in that 1st round – he ultimately lost the grinding battle there and did end the fight mounted.
He’s also coming off getting submitted by Ulberg which is embarrassing quite frankly. It’s not as if Ulberg had extended success or anything as the TD came late in the fight but he passed, took the back and choked him out. I say it’s embarrassing more so in the sense that Ulberg is a base kickboxer that hadn’t shown any offensive ground skills up until that point.
But in totality, he’s shown to be a competent offensive wrestler when he goes to it and can be difficult to wrestle/flatten himself.
How it plays out: Despite Jung’s historic 77% TDD mark, I think he’s going to struggle to remain upright in this spot. Clark was the best offensive wrestler that Jung had fought to date and despite largely staying upright there and providing resistance, he still got 30-27’d in a grinding affair. I also reference that fight in the sense that I feel Sy is a better offensive wrestler than Clark who also has jiu-jitsu which Devin Clark does not. Nonetheless, I’d still anticipate resistance from Jung where I’d be a bit surprised if Sy just ran through him quickly. But in some of these smaller grappling sequences we’ve seen from Jung, I don’t like his tendency to give the back, so I think Sy probably finds the neck at some point.
I think this is a semi deliberate booking from the UFC with the card being held in France. Jung’s definitely a decent step up in competition from the guys Sy’s been fighting but he just hasn’t looked good in the last two years and is now on the chopping block with three straight losses. It’s still not the easiest fight to benchmark based on sample but I think Sy’s going to get going on his ground game here and find a finish.
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On DraftKings, Sy may be one of the more popular fighters in the top end and he’ll rate out extremely well in this matchup.
He’s a grappling dependent fighter, from the sample we have, and he’s a heavy -600 favorite with a -160 ITD line. Plus, he’s 1-0 in the UFC and scored 107 in that win. It’s going to draw attention.
I have no problems with rostering Sy at a high clip, just given his style. However, I’m somewhat skeptical of the betting line.
It should just be noted that Sy really hasn’t been tested a whole not, nor has he had to face much adversity. He’s coming off a win over some random in his UFC debut who isn’t a UFC level fighter. Now he gets Jung who is 4-3-1 in the UFC and has fought some strong competition. It’s a clear step up for Sy.
Plus, we don’t really have a great sample on Sy’s striking to the point that he may be at a real disadvantage if he’s not on top of Jung. Jung may be able to hurt him and win by KO even.
So I’m not sure I’d call this the safest spot in the world, but regardless, the expectation for Sy in a win is early takedowns, control, and probably a finish. He has a strong ceiling and his metrics are great. If you can afford to pay up to the top of the board, Sy is definitely among my favorite targets, though on a 14-fight slate it’s still worth spreading out a bit.
Jung at 6.8k is a decent punt though I won’t have a ton of exposure here.
I would just consider him a leverage target, with knockout upside. If he wins it’s probably an early knockout, and we’ve also seen him go the distance and even land takedowns, so he has multiple paths. He’s a decent fighter, though not a great one.
Jung will most likely lose and most likely not score well in the loss, so it’s a very risky target. I do prefer paying up for win equity.
But it’s possible this is a binary matchup and it’s possible Sy is being overrated based on his debut. I don’t mind a sprinkle of Jung in tournaments all things considered.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sy by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Ludovit Klein vs. Roosevelt Roberts
Fight Odds: Klein -976, Roberts +625
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Klein 9.6k, Roberts 6.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
A bit of a weird booking from the UFC as Ludovit Klein will get a step down in competition against Roosevelt Roberts, who’s now in his second stint in the promotion.
I think a lot of fighters can learn from Klein. I had never been high on Klein before, but he has actually impressed me in his last few matchups by simply being more aggressive.
I really liked his win against Ignacio Bahamondes. He struck competitively on the feet with the longer and bigger Bahamondes and hurt him at times. Klein also landed three takedowns and obtained six minutes of control in that fight. It was the best performance of Klein’s career thus far.
Klein then beat the crap out of an outmatched AJ Cunningham and was super aggressive in that fight. He most recently put it on Thiago Moises, and just mauled him and hurt him several times en route to a dominant decision win. He also outwrestled Moises which was nice to see.
Klein is a bit of a freestyle fighter and he is tough and seasoned, with a lot of experience. As a striker, Klein lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.45 in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent. Those are okay metrics.
I don’t consider Klein a great striker and his striking volume has been a concern in the past. However, Klein does have some power and can generally at least have competitive exchanges which keeps him in the fight. He is competent and experienced as a striker and has outstruck guys like Devonte Smith, Mason Jones, and Ignacio Bahamondes. So he is decent as a striker. He has a good one two out of the southpaw stance and has a sneaky head kick.
Klein can also wrestle a bit too. He lands 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of taking down guys and holding top position. He also defends takedowns at 90 percent which is solid. I thought his defensive wrestling looked good against Thiago Moises.
Klein is overall just a well-rounded fighter. He can strike a bit and wrestle a bit, has a lot of experience, and a bit of power. I still do have concerns with his striking volume at times and he does have a terrible loss to Michael Trizano. So he does have some flaws and I do think it is possible that he has future performances that are head scratchers like he has had in the past.
However, he has shown more consistent offense in his last few fights and I do think he is heading in the right direction.
Klein will be taking on Roosevelt Roberts who recently lost to Mateusz Rebecki by first round armbar.
Roberts had a stint in the UFC from 2018 through 2021. It was a back and forth run where he traded wins and losses for a while. He then fought on the Ultimate Fighter Chandler v. McGregor season and lost on the show to Austin Hubbard. His return fight to the UFC was against Rebecki so this fight against Klein may be his last chance with this promotion.
Roberts is kind of a freestyle fighter. He has a pretty nasty guillotine choke. Other than that, Roberts doesn’t really thrive anywhere.
As a striker, Roberts is below-average to average at best. He lands 3.05 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.12 in return. He can show some decent hands and boxing combinations at times. However, he doesn’t have a ton of volume or firepower on the feet in general.
Roberts lands 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and is an okay wrestler. He is capable of taking down weak competition here and there, but he isn’t great as a wrestler. He also only defends takedowns at 52 percent and can be outwrestled himself.
I also just don’t like that Roberts has been finished multiple times. He was submitted by Jim Miller, knocked out by Bahamondes, and submitted by Rebecki. He just seems to be collapsing a lot. Those are all dangerous fighters though so perhaps I am being too hard on him.
I do think this is a very tough fight for Roberts because I don’t really see where his offense is going to come from. I doubt Roberts can take Klein down with regularity. Furthermore, Roberts just isn’t a good volume striker so he probably won’t be able to land much offense on the feet either. So I just don’t see much round winning equity for Roberts in general.
Klein on the other hand can likely land takedowns and has more power and lethal striking combinations than Roberts. So the offense of Klein should show up and my guess is that he can probably just get ahead on rounds and potentially knock Roberts out.
Roberts could still maybe compete a little bit here. Klein has had volume issues before so Roberts may just be able to strike competitively because of that. Roberts could maybe threaten with a guillotine as well.
Overall though, Klein just seems like a better wrestler and more powerful striker. So I will go with Klein to get the win.
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On DraftKings, Klein is the most expensive fighter on the slate at 9.6k, and I personally think it’s tough to pay up to him.
He’s a massive -1000 favorite which feels too high for my taste, though it’s a good matchup, but Klein just usually fights at a slow pace. He’s had one really aggressive performance in his career, which came recently against Cunningham where he landed 60 strikes in round one and scored the KO.
But then he fell back to earth against Moises, while clearly winning, he landed 56 strikes and one takedown in 15 minutes. It gave him a score of 89, which is the best score in a decision he’s had in four wins.
Of course he does have a 104-pointer on record, and a 135er against Cunningham, but both of those came in RD 1 KOs.
Essentially, regardless of matchup, Klein is boom or bust. He doesn’t strike in volume or wrestle in volume. His floor may be adequate in a win but for 9.6k, we need a real smash for him to be optimal in tournaments.
I do think he’s capable of it as Roberts tends to melt, but there are plenty of strong options priced below Klein as well so I don’t feel it necessary to force him in. Klein is -190 to win ITD which is the best line on the slate though.
One other random note is that Roberts is going to be WAY taller than Klein. Roberts is 6’2” and Klein is 5’7” so can Klein physically even kick him in the head? I’m not sure. Roberts only holds a one-inch reach advantage.
It’s totally acceptable to play Klein moderately when you have the salary to afford him, but I’m not sure that will always be the case and I’d still like to spread out to others in the top range.
Roberts at 6.5k doesn’t interest me much. Sure, he’s capable of a random guillotine but it’s difficult to trust and his offensive production should be pretty limited in this matchup.
He’s also the biggest dog on the slate by far and has a poor ITD line at +900. He’ll be extremely low owned but there are other dart throws in this range I’d prefer for upside, so I most likely will lean toward fading Roberts with a limited portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Klein by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Taylor Lapilus vs. Vince Morales
Fight Odds: Lapilus -363, Morales +287
Odds to Finish: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Lapilus 9.3k, Morales 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
Not my favorite fight on the slate but it’s a good opportunity for Taylor Lapilus to further establish himself as a strong French prospect, as he’ll take on the returning Vince Morales this weekend.
Lapilus is fighting in his second stint in the UFC, after getting cut in 2016 when he went 3-1 in his first four bouts.
He fights out of the Southpaw stance and his best weapon is his hard left hand, which he will snipe opponents with pretty well. Unfortunately, I do think his overall game is limited to that style.
He’s had a tough run since his return against three quality opponents in Cody Stamann, Caolan Loughran and Farid Basharat, though he was able to best both Stamann and Loughran over three rounds.
Lapilus was taken down by all four of his UFC opponents in the first stint, and that’s still the primary weakness in his game. He’s actually a really good athlete and can sprawl and get back to his feet alright, but his defense is just not amazing and he can give up his back.
Loughran largely failed on his wrestling shots, but did secure the second round with takedowns and control. Basharat landed five takedowns on 16 attempts and earned seven minutes of control. Stamann was only able to land one takedown on six attempts.
Honestly, it could have been worse. Every one of those opponents are very strong wrestlers and all had a tough time holding Laplius down. All did eventually get on top and earned some control, but by and large Lapilus has looked pretty effective in neutralization.
As long as Lapilus keeps the fight on the feet though, he’s quite decent, but I wouldn’t say he has the deepest arsenal. He will generally retreat when opponents come forward, and counter with that left hand. He can also throw the left kick pretty well.
The guy is a pretty dangerous striker but he’s not super high volume. He’ll thrive when he can land big damaging shots here and there, but otherwise won’t likely be running away with rounds.
He currently lands 4.33 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.61 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. He actually just landed 100 sig. strikes against Stamann, which is the best volume performance of his career by far. That’s another positive.
In general, I like Lapilus because he can keep the fight upright generally and he’s effective there. I’m just not sold he has some real ceiling as a prospect given his style limitations.
Vince Morales is also in his second stint in the UFC, after getting cut in 2022 while losing six out of nine fights. He’s since gone on to win five regional fights in a row, against some ex-UFC competition like Hunter Azure and Teruto Ishihara, so he’s getting a call back.
I don’t think it matters much personally, and I’m not at all hopeful for Morales in his return. We have a large enough sample on who he is and in his mid-30s, I doubt he’s improved enough to be impactful at the UFC level.
Morales is basically a range boxer, and a fine one, but not a great one. He landed 4.17 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.24 per minute with a 53 percent defensive rate.
He went to decision six times and only was able to land in the mid-70s a couple of times. He did earn a few knockdowns, but I wouldn’t label him a power threat and he’s not a great athlete either.
As a grappler, Morales is more of a negative than a positive, though he won by sub a few times in his recent regional run. He landed 0.14 takedowns per 15 minutes and defended at 64 percent.
On the regionals, he looked OK attempting some takedowns and transitioned well to a D’arce choke or other headlock chokes. I just don’t see him being effective at the UFC level. He’s not physically strong enough to be that impactful and I don’t think he’s super dangerous on the mat, though he may be opportunistic.
Largely, Morales can win competitive rounds at distance with boxing, and that’s about it. He’ll occasionally land a big shot, as he will occasionally take one. Maybe he can outwrestle weak grapplers but I’d expect him to get outwrestled against anyone good.
This is a fight Lapilus should win. He’s definitely the better athlete, and I think he’s a more effective striker. He’s also shown enough wrestling defense to hold off Morales.
The issue is that Lapilus may also give Morales the fight he wants. A range boxing affair that’s somewhat slow paced. There is a very real chance Morales can make rounds competitive by just throwing some punches and matching Lapilus’ pace.
In France, the crowd will be on Lapilus’ side and ultimately, he’s better than Morales. He’s more powerful and more physical, and better technically. But stylistically, Morales may hang around and that could be annoying. I’ll take Lapilus to win a comfortable decision.
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On DraftKings, Lapilus is priced up to 9.3k and I don’t think I can pay much for him.
In his decision wins, Lapilus has scored 82, 61, 65 and 72, which is largely due to his style. I don’t expect his style to change much, and he really needs an early finish to contend for the optimal.
The problem is that he’s +300 to win ITD which is awful. And I think that will translate to his DK ownership, along with the poor box scores, resulting in him being a pure contrarian play.
It’s not that I hate him or think he can’t possibly reach a ceiling, but he’s one of my least favorite plays above 8k based on all the data we have in front of us. I’d just rather invest elsewhere with a limited portfolio, but if you want a spot to be very unique, Lapilus can be considered.
Morales at 6.9k is basically only viable if you think his wrestling path is real.
I just don’t see him being effective as a striker, landing much or knocking Lapilus out. His two decision wins in the UFC scored 68 and 54, so it’s hard to be sure that’s optimal even at a huge discount.
Lapilus has lost rounds to wrestlers though and although Morales is very clearly a worse wrestler than Lapilus’ last opponents, perhaps Morales simply attempting takedowns could lead to a good result.
I don’t love it, and he’s only +600 to win ITD, but that’s the case I have. If you want a low-end price-saver, you can use a bit of Morales for that reason but I’ll be very light personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lapilus by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Daria Zhelezniakova vs. Ailin Perez
Fight Odds: Perez -244, Zhelezniakova +203
Odds to Finish: +185
DraftKings Salaries: Perez 9.1k, Zhelezniakova 7.1k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a low-level fight here in the bantamweight division between Ailin Perez and Daria Zhelezniakova.
Perez is an Argentinian fighter who is 10-2 professionally. She is now 3-1 in the UFC with wins over Ashlee Evans-Smith, Lucie Pudilova, and Joselyn Edwards. She lost her UFC debut by RNC to Stephanie Eggar.
I mostly profile Perez as a grappler who aggressively pursues takedowns. She is not skillful and many of her takedowns are head and arm based which is a red flag. However, she is a somewhat physical girl who pursues takedowns persistently.
She has landed 1, 10, 2, and 6 takedowns in her four UFC fights. I think she will continue to outwrestle weak competition in this division. She also has some decent ground and pound from top position.
Good grapplers will absolutely shut Perez down and beat her though like we saw against Eggar. I also don’t love the defensive grappling of Perez. She defends takedowns at 75 percent which is fine but she has really bad get ups, and I have seen her held down for long stretches in bottom position.
Perez’s striking is a bit of a means to an end. She lands 2.91 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.35 in return. However, most of her strikes come in top position so I consider her striking numbers skewed. She isn’t awful on the feet. She stayed competitive on the feet with Joselyn Edwards and hurt her with a spinning backfist. She has some decent pop. However, I am more comfortable with Perez winning fights if she is consistently landing takedowns.
Perez will be taking on Daria Zhelezniakova. Daria is a Russian fighter who is 9-1 professionally. She made her UFC debut in March and won a competitive decision against Montserrat Rendon by getting the better of the striking exchanges. Her one loss came outside of the UFC to current UFC fighter Melissa Mullins. Daria was taken down, mounted, and finished with ground and pound in that one.
I don’t think Daria is very good. I profile her mostly as a striker. She is okay on the feet but nothing special. She outlanded Rendon 51-25 at distance which is okay but I wasn’t all that impressed. She is somewhat skilled on the feet but I don’t think she is anything special. She can mostly just go through the striking motions.
Daria was taken down three times by Rendon and was finished on the mat vs Mullins. Her tdd isn’t awful and she can kind of work up to the feet. However, I don’t consider defensive wrestling a strength of hers either. I also thought it was a bad look watching her get mounted and finished by Mullins. She did stop the takedowns against UFC veteran Liana Jojua and floated on top position, which was a decent performance. Jojua is a poor wrestler though.
Overall, I just don’t think Daria is very good. Striking based decisions are likely her path to victory at this level and she doesn’t even look special on the feet, or look like a good defensive wrestler either.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going to go with Perez because she has more paths to victory. I do think Perez can land clinch takedowns here and potentially advance position and damage Daria. Perez may honestly be the best and most persistent takedown artist that Daria has faced as well.
Maybe Daria can work up to her feet. On the feet, I do think this is a fight Daria could win. Still though, I am not even sure I favor her standing. Perez isn’t bad on the feet and probably hits harder than Daria. Furthermore, Daria does not wear damage well and seems to get busted up every fight. If Daria even wins on the feet, it will still probably be a very competitive fight.
I do think Daria could sneakily ride out top position here though. Daria doesn’t really pursue takedowns, but Perez is sloppy and ends up on her back at times. I saw Daria float on top against Jojua so I wouldn’t be surprised if she could hold down Perez if she ends up there for whatever reason.
I am still going to go with Perez here though as she has grappling upside and likely has enough striking to keep up with Daria.
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On DraftKings, Perez is a pretty solid target stylistically though there aren’t many reasons to feel confident in her.
She’s ultimately a low-level talent. A weak wrestler and a weak striker, but this division is filled with weak talent. In wins, Perez grapples aggressively and that’s led to some strong DK performances.
So despite my lack of confidence in Perez, she seems like a decent option this week. She’s scored 138, 88 and 110 in her three UFC decisions. Her finishing equity is very minimal at +365, but I don’t particularly care about that.
I don’t think Perez is a stand out among this top range because there are certainly paths for this fight to play out competitively, and for Perez to win, score well and miss the optimal lineup. She has shown a stronger ceiling than many others though, and I think it’s reasonable to chase that upside on a large slate.
I am not expecting to be heavily overweight to Perez, but at 9.1k, she offers a reasonable floor and a moderate ceiling in a win. I would definitely mix her into lineups and she could be viewed as a preferred target in that upper 8k/lower 9k range.
Zhelezniakova isn’t super exciting at 7.1k. She probably won’t land lots of volume, and there’s no guarantee of any wrestling. She’s also +365 to win ITD and I wouldn’t expect a finish.
She can definitely beat Perez on the feet though. Not that it’s a guarantee, but that’s where she excels and Perez just won’t do enough to separate there.
So in terms of win equity, I think Zhelezniakova is fine. I just don’t know if that will translate to a strong DK score even if she wins and I’d be more worried about it busting Perez.
I don’t mind some Zhelezniakova for the salary savings, and I don’t expect her to be owned much at all this week. But it’s a low-end target due to ceiling limitations.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Perez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Daniel Barez vs. Victor Altamirano
Fight Odds: Altamirano -126, Barez +110
Odds to Finish: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Barez 8.4k, Altamirano 7.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Daniel Barez is a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season where he came up short in a tight fight against Carlos Hernandez. He went back to the regionals rattling off four straight wins before getting a short notice call up last year where he was finished by Jafel Filho – he’s 0-1 in the UFC and 16-6 as a pro. Victor Altamirano is a fellow Contender Series alum from the same season who’s had an up and down run thus far in the promotion – he’s 2-3 in the UFC and 12-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Barez’s stand up has been a bit all over the board in the sense that sometimes he’s played a more passive mid-range game, but in others (more recently), he’s looked to pressure from the jump.
He’ll kick here and there but his bread and butter is with his boxing as his combos are tight, crisp and fast. He specifically excels with his hooks that then set up his body shots which have hurt multiple opponents now, with seven of his 16 pro wins coming via strikes.
Defensively, he’s better at range but can leave his head on the center line when he’s entering or firing off his combos. We did see Hernandez stun him at one point on the Contender Series, but Barez hurt him as well.
He ultimately got out-struck at distance 63-45 numerically but the exchanges were competitive – it was really a later flurry from Hernandez that probably won him that fight.
Barez did slow down a bit as well which I think was more of a product of Hernandez’ body work than Barez having bad cardio – his cardio has looked fine historically to me.
But overall, I do like the boxing of Barez but he may struggle with more rangy opponents.
Altamirano comes from a taekwondo background where he holds a black belt in the discipline, and is a longer flyweight with a 70” reach.
He’s shown to be highersh volume landing 4.1 SLpM at 57% but hasn’t been a historic power threat, with only two of his 12 pro wins coming via strikes. But he mixes it up well between punches and kicks and will still throw with intent – he dropped Lacerda with a nicely timed knee to the body a few fights back and landed some pretty big shots in his last three outings against Salvador, Elliott and Dos Santos.
However, Altamirano has had some defensive struggles, eating 3.4 SApM at 55% (around the divisional average) and has a bad tendency of leaning or dipping into shots. That’s helped him shoulder roll punches at times, but opponents can also pull him into their power side shots at the same time. He has shown to be pretty durable though, outside of getting dropped early by Lacerda, and he’s a guy you can expect to be in there for a full 15 minutes.
It’s also fair to say that his cardio is good as he’s gone a hard 25 minutes back on the regionals and has been in some taxing affairs so far in the UFC where he’s won the 3rd round in three of his last four extended contests.
Overall, Altamirano’s a respectable striker between his pacing and diversity of attack but he’s a guy who really struggles to separate himself standing, even when facing not the highest level of guys.
How it plays out: This should be a fun battle on the feet. The merits for Altamirano I see are in length, durability, range striking and potentially cardio. The merits I see for Barez are in pressure, technical boxing, hand speed and power. So it really profiles as varianced fight when on the feet because I feel both guy’s styles pose problems to the other – coupled with both guys not really separating from their opponents over duration in extended fights.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Barez comes from a more extensive grappling background as he’s won European No Gi Championships and Sambo Championships.
He’s a brown belt in BJJ to boot with six pro wins coming via submission.
He went 5/16 on TDs against Hernandez but did struggle to control him – granted Hernandez has been a difficult guy to control in the past with a sound get up game.
Traditionally, he’s not a guy who’s shooting a high volume of TDs, but he is a capable wrestler with good top side chokes.
Defensively, he has respectable TDD and stuffed all eight shots from Hernandez, but he did slip off a knee in the 2nd and got controlled for the bulk of that round – he also gave his back up pretty early in the sequence.
We also saw him lose the entire 1st round via wrestling to Camilo but did threaten a somewhat tight guillotine.
So, he’ll throw stuff up, but those two individual rounds are somewhat concerning for me in Barez’s ability to be controlled.
In addition to what we saw in the last outing against Filho as his guard got passed quickly off one of the TDs to where he got arm triangled.
Overall, he appears to be one of those “drivers seat” types of grapplers.
Altamirano’s a BJJ black belt with four of his 12 pro wins coming via submission.
He’s shown some TD upside in the UFC landing 3.33 per 15 minutes but at only 36%.
The wrestling was a key component in his last W over Salvador but as per his numbers, he’s not a very efficient wrestler and doesn’t produce tons of offense on top. Offensive wrestling was also a key for him in forcing a close fight last time out against Dos Santos.
However, in the aggregate, the ground is actually more of a weakness than a strength for Altamirano.
His first pro loss came via submission, as did all three of his amateur losses as well.
Additionally, he’s been taken down in eight of his last 10 fights to boot – Brooks controlled him for nearly every minute of the fight prior to Brooks finding a submission, Ocon landed multiple TDs getting a decent amount of top time forcing a split, McKinney won the first round via wrestling before getting submitted in the 2nd (ref essentially put McKinney in a triangle, weird sequence). Smith landed multiple TDs as well but just didn’t pursue the wrestling enough over the course of the fight and gassed, Candelario took him down five times and won in the wrestling, Hernandez got the better of the limited exchanges, Salvador took him down as well and he most recently got grinded out by Elliott.
The main point to hit isn’t just his TDD, it’s more so that his get up game hasn’t always been the best and as a result, he will drop minutes/rounds on his back and “play jiu-jitsu”.
He has shown a more concerted effort to work up in the UFC which is encouraging though.
Overall, he’s a capable ground fighter with an aggressive guard but he’s going to struggle with volume wrestling and better positional top players at this level.
How it plays out: The ground also seems variable given the historics of both, coupled with assessing the general game plan of both. In this spot, I actually think Barez may have more offensive wrestling upside in terms of general pursuit, despite what the numbers suggest. However, there may be more collapsibility on the side of Barez. At the same time, Altamirano isn’t on the level of Filho in terms of BJJ who just recently submitted Barez.
Solid scrap that has some candidacy for Fight of the Night potential. To me it seems like a coin flippy type of fight where if it goes to the cards (which it’s projected to at a decent rate), it’ll probably be a 29-28 type of decision where the scorecards are just a product of what the three people in the seat value on the night. I’ll take Barez for the win but with little confidence.
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On DraftKings, it’s a tough fight to invest in given the -260 odds to go the distance, but I do like the potential pacing.
I’m still scarred by Barez’ UFC debut where I was heavy on him and he was dominant early, nearly finishing the fight. But then he got taken down late and was subbed in a crazy comeback, and he hasn’t fought since.
I’m not sure what to think now, and I mostly agree with Luke’s analysis, but it’s worth noting that Altamirano isn’t a high-level opponent. These two are probably on a very similar level across the board.
I still like Barez’ aggression at times, his boxing, and his wrestling. Altamriano has been taken down 5+ times in multiple fights, so I think Barez has moderate wrestling equity over the duration. I just don’t know if he has real finishing equity at +375 ITD and I’d lean toward a decision.
So at 8.4k, it’s hard to be too excited by Barez. He’s actually the dog now in this fight which probably pushes more ownership away from him.
I really want to buy into Barez, to a degree, but it’s a tough recommendation and I think the most likely outcome is a competitive fight, and a bust on DK. But I’d say Barez’ wrestling equity is intriguing, as is a low ownership, and I would expect him to score well in aw in even if he doesn’t reach an optimal ceiling.
He’ll be a standard secondary/pricing play for me who on a 14 fight slate, he still feels very tough to prioritize.
Altamirano at 7.8k could be more popular now that he’s a -130 favorite and the value side.
He’s also coming off a loss where he landed nine takedowns, so he makes for a pretty scary fade. He scored 72 points in that loss, which suggests how important grappling is for scoring on DK.
And Barez is not an elite talent. Maybe Altamirano has wrestling equity here too. It’s just that Altamirano was taking down Felipe dos Santos who has traditionally poor TDD, and Altamirano has only ever beaten bad competition (Salvador, Lacerda, Candelario share a combined 0-10-1 UFC record).
So I’m not convinced Altamirano is capable of duplicating that performance. He has generally landed takedowns in wins though.
Altamirano is +415 to win ITD here too which is a pretty poor line and is another aspect of why I am questioning his upside. I think you’re just hoping for Barez to stumble and get finished like we saw in his UFC debut, and although it’s a completely different matchup here, small sampling on Barez makes it tricky.
I won’t roster much of Altamirano personally. I don’t love the talent and it’s not a great matchup. But I’d expect his floor to be fine in a win, and he does have more win equity than several others in this range, so he’s viable as a secondary option in that sense.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Nora Cornolle vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Fight Odds: Cavalcanti -205, Cornolle +174
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Cavalcanti 8.7k, Cornolle 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun fight here and a technical rematch between Jacqueline Cavalcanti and Nora Cornolle, who share a combined 4-0 record inside the Octagon.
These two last fought in 2021, and Cavalcanti won a comfortable decision there. It was a fairly sloppy fight, but Cavalcanti hurt Cornolle badly on multiple occasions. Both girls landed takedowns as well. It’s difficult to say this fight will play out in the exact same manner, but it’s worth noting as it was only a few years ago.
Cavalcanti also fought just a few weeks ago in the UFC and won a split decision against Josiane Nunes. She took this fight on short notice after Nora Cornolle’s original opponent Germaine De Randamie withdrew from injury.
Cavalcanti is now 2-0 in the UFC and is generally a range distance striker. She employs a lot of movement on the outside and looks to land her kicks and punches on the outside and skate away from her opponents.
Cavalcanti outlanded Zarah Fairn 126 – 39 in significant strikes and outlanded Josiane Nunes 91-52 in significant strikes. She has pretty good range control and defense, and is defending strikes at a fantastic 77 percent in her first two UFC fights.
I overall think Cavalcanti is a fine striker who can win rounds on the feet at this level. I do think she lacks a bit in power and aggression though. She was definitely the better and more skillful striker in her last matchup against Nunes and outlanded her comfortably. However, Nunes made the fight more competitive than it should have been by simply being the aggressor and landing some occasional power shots. So optically, Cavalcanti may struggle a bit even if she is outlanding her opponents.
Cavalcanti doesn’t look to grapple much and doesn’t look interested in wrestling offensively. Her defensive grappling looks competent, but I haven’t seen her tested there all that much either.
Cavalcanti will be taking on Nora Cornolle who is now 2-0 in the UFC.
Cornolle comes from a kickboxing background and is 34 years old. Her kickboxing career isn’t extensive or decorated though and she lost plenty of those fights.
Cornolle is probably best as a damaging striker, mostly in the clinch. It is what she had success with in the regionals and what she has done to win her two UFC fights. She lands a lot of good knees to the body and other close quarter strikes from that position.
In Cornolle’s UFC debut, she generally damaged Joselyne Edwards from the clinch and landed some good shots from there. Over half of her significant strikes came from the clinch. She does look damaging in the clinch and definitely has some power in close quarters. I still thought Cornolle lost that fight and was gifted a home country decision. She was taken down five times by Edwards and controlled for nine minutes. Her defensive grappling is poor.
Cornolle then fought Melissa Mullins in her second UFC fight and knocked Mullins out in round two. You saw Cornolle thrive in the clinch in that fight as well and landed a knee to finish Mullins.
I basically just consider Cornolle a dangerous clinch striker in close quarters. I have way less faith in her distance striking game though and am not sure she is good at distance. I need to see more of her range game, but I have seen her hit and just look a little awkward in middle to long-range striking distances. She also is clearly a bad defensive grappler and will get exposed on the mat at some point.
I do think Cornolle will get a striking fight here against Cavalcanti though as Cavalcanti does not seem interested in grappling.
This is an interesting fight because I really think this is going to be a battle of striking ranges. At long range and at distance, I favor Cavalcanti. I think she can skate on the outside and land on Cornolle, and be the more evasive and defensive fighter. I am honestly going to pick Cavalcanti for that reason and because she is a hard girl to get a hold of.
I do think this fight could potentially hit the mat though. These girls don’t attempt many takedowns, but Cornolle clinches a lot and has poor TDD. Clinch exchanges just sometimes turn into grappling exchanges in WMMA and I do think if anyone lands takedowns, it would probably be Cavalcanti. I won’t count on it though.
I do think Cornolle is the better and more dangerous striker on the inside though. If these girls clinch, Cornolle may be better and looks more dangerous. So she could potentially hurt Cavalcanti or land some eye popping strikes that the crowd and judges like. So I do think Cornolle could have success and win this fight.
Furthermore, Cornolle will have the crowd on her side as this is in France and Cornolle is a French native. We literally already saw Cornolle win a controversial decision against Edwards in France already. So if Cornolle is just aggressive and keeps this competitive, the judges could give it to her. So I do think this is a bit of a sketchy fight and I don’t want anything to do with it from a betting perspective.
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On DraftKings, my guess is that this fight goes overlooked due to there being 14 fights on the slate.
Cavalcanti has looked decent, but she’s only scored 81 and 66 points in her two wins, which is largely due to her style. She’s not a low-volume striker, but strikes alone don’t get the job done and she’ll need grappling or finishing equity to really be impactful from a fantasy standpoint.
It’s pretty difficult to predict, or assume that will ever be the case. Cavalcanti is +625 to win ITD here so largely, there are good reasons to just ignore her at 8.7k.
With that said, Cavalcanti dropped Cornolle pretty early in the first round when they last fought. The ref was ready and waiting to jump in for the stoppage, but the fight continued. Cavalcanti also landed takedowns in that fight and even mounted Cornolle at one point.
Cornolle has looked better in the UFC, but every matchup is different and I’m still pretty skeptical of her talents.
It doesn’t feel reasonable to play a lot of Cavalcanti, solely on the basis that she could win by TKO or grapple with success in a matchup where she has already excelled. But it does feel reasonable to play a bit of her for those reasons, especially as an ultra-contrarian target.
I’m unsure how crazy I want to get with this one. The expectation should be that it doesn’t work out. There’s also some merit to pursuing Cavalcanti as the superior striker and martial artist, at a super low public percentage in large fields. Sneaky play.
Cornolle at 7.5k will probably be more popular given she’s scored 105 and 74 in her two UFC fights.
She also has a much better ITD line than Cavalcati at +350, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Still, it should attract attention for those who want to save salary.
I also feel less confident in lower level women’s mma fights than anything else. They always end up messy and dogs come through often, it seems. If Cornolle randomly landed takedowns or hurt Cavalcanti, I wouldn’t be shocked.
It’s really not a spot I want to bet on though. Cavalcanti is surely the more technical striker and probably the better wrestler. She’s fought better competition than Cornolle, and she’s already beaten Cornolle.
Cornolle may have reasonable upside in a messy win, and it’s viable to use her as a low-end secondary target at 7.5k, but I don’t love the talent or the matchup and I’ll end up quite light personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cavalcanti by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Bolaji Oki vs. Chris Duncan
Fight Odds: Oki -178, Duncan +152
Odds to Finish: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Oki 8.8k, Duncan 7.4k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Bolaji Oki is a Contender Series alum who earned a contract this past year – he’s 1-0 in the UFC and 9-1 as a pro. Chris Duncan is a fellow Contender Series alum who made good on his 2nd opportunity back in 2022 – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 11-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Oki comes from a kickboxing background and is now in his 7th year as a pro MMA fighter.
Ironically, he’s not the biggest kicker in the world and prefers his hands and knees as primary weapons. He works in a more methodical, stalking based nature in looking to control the center and lead the dance on his opponents.
So, he’s not a volume machine from a distance perspective but picks his shots well and will start to unload on opponents he has hurt.
I’d say his two main core competencies are his hand speed and his ability to find the liver with both punches and knees, as I’ve seen him put multiple guys down targeting the body.
Defensively, he does a good job of getting his hands up on original exchanges and generally keeps guys on the end of his punches. But he will drop his hands at the end of combos and can be susceptible within the pocket when more phone booth type exchanges happen.
However, he’s worn any damage well to date and has been a finisher with five of his nine pro wins coming via KO.
It does need to be noted that he hasn’t fought a very strong strength of schedule overall, but he beat a credentialled kickboxer in Dylan Salvador in his DWCS bout which was an impressive showing to me and Cuamba isn’t a slouch.
Duncan is best as a striker who traditionally has been more boxing based, but has also kicked more in recent years.
His work rate is generally consistent, and he does have power for the division, specifically in his right-hand, scoring KOs in seven of his 11 pro wins.
But the issue I’ve always had with Duncan is that he does have “plodding” elements to his game where he’ll kind of just march into the pocket.
It’s obviously brought him success against certain opponents, but it’s also left him defensively liable.
He’s only defended strikes at 49% between his first few DWCS fights and his two UFC bouts, where he was hurt specifically in the first three – Borshchev put him down with a good hook, Campbell nearly killed him, and Morales hurt him with a right hand in the 1st.
He obviously showed off his durability in both of those outings, but I just haven’t seen any particularly large evolutions in Duncan’s defense to date which leads me to believe he’s going to get KO’d again sometime in the near future.
He did perform better against Morales than I anticipated, but I do think Morales was the more effective striker in that matchup despite Duncan getting the nod.
The Ashmouz fight is kind of a throw away in the sense that Ashmouz broke his arm early in the 1st round so Duncan was more or less able to do what he needed to.
Duncan hurt Torres though in the last outing in the brief early exchanges.
Overall, Duncan will find more evident striking success against guys who he can bully or put away, but I still feel he’s going to struggle with more defensively cognoscente fighters who can also get his respect.
How it plays out: The striking’s a bit interesting here. Duncan’s work rate is more consistent than Oki’s, but I also don’t think he’s going to be able to get off as much here as he has on some past opponents. Additionally, Duncan has some poor tendencies that I feel Oki may be able to capitalize on. He’ll throw naked kicks at times and that should really open up lead hooks for Oki. Duncan will also shell which can leave openings for Oki’s body work which is solid. Both guys have power, but I also feel Oki has the better hardware. For those reasons, I side with Oki on the feet but he’s still not a guy that “overtly” separates which gives cause for concern.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Oki’s floor background and we haven’t seen a ton of him on the ground in his career.
His 1st and only pro loss did come via wrestling though back in 2018 where he was taken down 3-4 times and controlled for roughly 5-6 minutes, which served as the difference maker there.
However, it does appear that he’s evolved his TDD since that fight as he’s shown a decent sprawl and the ability to dig underhooks. He’s still given up a few TDs but has been able to work back up to the feet in shorter order/avoid being flattened.
Offensively, he’s mixed the TD into a handful of fights but had the most success against Melikyan in his last regional decision win, landing 4-5 TDs.
However, he’s really only gone to it when he starts eating more shots or becomes more labored – it’s hard to project him to come out and shoot TDs in volume.
Oki has one submission win via guillotine as well where the opponent tried to reshoot on him, but he snagged the neck up quickly. Outside of that, we haven’t seen much of Oki’s jiu-jitsu on display either offensively or defensively.
Overall, being a base kickboxer, I’d assume the floor is where his primary struggles will come in the UFC when fighting better ground guys but as noted, it does appear to be something he’s worked on over the years and has some offensive upside as well.
Throughout the bulk of Duncan’s career, we haven’t seen a ton of wrestling from him and he hasn’t been the best with control.
However, he has shot TDs in his last five fights – he had some success on Slava late in the 1st but was more so wrestling due to him being hurt – didn’t have success against Campbell – but then shot 14 TDs against Morales which wasn’t really predictable.
He only went 5/14 on Morales but accrued a little over six minutes of control.
What I thought was impressive for Duncan was that he made a mid-fight adjustment after losing the 1st round on the feet to really pursue the TDs, which is ultimately what won him that fight.
I’ve always thought of Duncan as more of a “block head” but it’s good to see he has some semblance of fight IQ.
Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much but has popped up relatively quickly the majority of times he’s been taken down.
Grappling wise, he’s only a BJJ blue belt with one pro win via submission which was his debut back in 2018.
His last fight against Torres was concerning though as he essentially just got muscled around, got his back taken and choked out early.
Overall, if offensive wrestling is a true recent adaptation to Duncan’s game, I think that’s a good thing for him to be able to mix it up, but I still wouldn’t classify him as a “good wrestler” and the ground defensively for him is shaky.
How it plays out: I’d anticipate Duncan to be the more active wrestler in the fight based on historics. The question more so comes in how much success he can realize with it? That’s where I’m skeptical because I don’t think his entries are great and I do like the sprawls from Oki. Oki also profiles as the physically stronger guy. Nonetheless, I’d still lean to Duncan on pursuit upside but Duncan’s last bout against Torres is concerning.
Interesting booking that I don’t have a particularly passionate opinion on as I can see the case for both sides. There’s a chance that the fight looks like Duncan/Morales where he’s able to squeak out 2/3 with some TDs and cage push but I also think Oki is the more dangerous finisher in the fight and more likely to have larger moments, coupled with me trusting him a bit more to be in there for 15 minutes. Oki via KO will be the pick.
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On DraftKings, this isn’t a safe fight but it’s probably one I’ll aim to target to start out the night.
Really, we’re just searching for upside on the slate. Oki has it in power striking, and we’ve seen Duncan hurt badly multiple times before.
The issue is that if Oki doesn’t win by early KO, he is very likely to bust at 8.8k. He won a decision in his UFC debut and scored 62 points, so that should be the expectation again.
Still, he’s -105 to win ITD here and the public may be scared to target him aggressively. I get it, I am scared too. But he’s less expensive than many others on the slate and at least provides some reasonable KO narrative.
You don’t have to be super aggressive with Oki exposure but he makes sense given his power upside and Duncan’s questionable durability. A decent upside, boom or bust target at 8.8k who could be mildly sneaky.
Duncan at 7.4k interests me somewhat. He’s been in brawls before, and he’s landed eight takedowns in his last three fights. The combination of the two give him some upside stylistically, though it’s not the best matchup.
Duncan is only +400 to win ITD so he won’t rate out particularly well. Oki won’t yield a ton of offense either so my expectations for Duncan aren’t high.
But if he can pressure, force a more wild fight and wrestle some, Duncan could win. He scored 90 points in his UFC debut victory, which came by decision.
He’s only a secondary target but I don’t mind some Duncan in a potentially messy fight that’s projected to end ITD.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oki by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)