UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh (2/28/26)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
Fight Odds: Moreno -210, Kavanagh +180
Odds to end ITD: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Moreno 8.7k, Kavanagh 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
We have a short notice scrap here in the flyweight division between former champion Brandon Moreno and up-and-comer Lone’er Kavanagh.
Moreno was originally scheduled to take on Asu Almabayev but that fight was canceled at the start of February, and the UFC surprisingly chose Kavanagh to take his place. While Kavanagh is a legit prospect, he’s coming off a brutal knockout loss to Charles Johnson, so by default, this is a massive step up in competition for him.
To make matters worse, it’s a primary talking point this week that the card is in Mexico City and at elevation. In fact, Mexico City is 7,350 ft above sea level and is more than 2,000 ft higher than Denver. Fighters tend to get tired much more quickly at this kind of elevation, and it adds an additional wrinkle for every single matchup.
Kavanagh is now 9-1 professionally with four wins by knockout and one by submission. Both of his wins in the UFC have come by decision, against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, though he won by first round KO on DWCS in 2024.
Kavanagh fights out of the Britian Top Team with Nathaniel Wood, and he’s a five-time K1 kickboxing champion.
His style is rooted in distance exchanges, where he excels controlling distance, and using footwork to get in and out with ease. He likes to switch stances, and he can attack all levels. He does carry power as well and is a pretty explosive athlete.
We’ve already seen the limitations to his game though, which I think most notably come in the volume department. He’s only landing 4.29 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.69 with 58 percent defensive rate. In two decisions he’s won, Kavanagh has only landed 58 and 51 significant strikes.
More importantly, to me, Kavanagh has some defensive issues on the inside. He is among the best fighters in this division when he can control range, and throw singular strikes. If you back him up and push a pace, he will eat shots, and he’s coming off a devastating KO loss to Johnson.
I’ve heard a lot of people talk about that loss, and the primary talking point is that Kavanagh gassed out and got KOd. When I watch the fight, I don’t necessarily see that. I don’t see Kavanagh looking extremely labored. He’s not breathing super heavily. I’ve watched a million fights and based on what I see in those exchanges, I wouldn’t label him a gasser.
To be fair, Kavanagh has won four decisions. He’s outlanding his opponents in round three. It’s not like he’s a classic KO or bust guy.
The issues I’m seeing is that he could not back Johnson off of him with those singular shots. Johnson is a very good, very long boxer who pressured him well, backed him up, landed good punches and ultimately caught Kavanagh with his hands down where Johnson landed a clean shot to the chin.
We may continue to see these issues crop up, and clearly, it’s how you beat Kavanagh. Don’t let him control distance. Pressure him and make him work where his style somewhat falls apart.
To remedy it, Kavanagh has used wrestling, and he lands 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes, including four takedowns landed against dos Santos. He’s not some elite grappler or finishing threat on the mat though. Defensively, I consider his wrestling pretty solid and he’s defending at 88 percent.
This is a pretty intriguing matchup against Moreno who on paper is the clear pick to make.
Moreno has obviously fought the best of the best for years, and he’s been one of my favorite fighters to bet because he’s so well-rounded, and can push a pace for 25 minutes.
Moreno historically lands 3.89 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.62 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. We’ve seen him top out at 147 and 132 strikes landed in 5-round affairs. He isn’t necessarily a KO artist but he can do some damage, and he’s ultra-tough.
Additionally, Moreno is a good grappler and lands 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s a black belt in BJJ and can survive on the mat (typically) or threaten from top position.
I haven’t loved Moreno’s recent performances though. I thought he totally blew the fight against Royval back in 2024 because he didn’t throw enough. Coincidentally that fight was also in Mexico City.
The Albazi fight was easy work but Albazi sucks. He “clearly” beat Steve Erceg but Erceg outlanded him 115 to 87 at distance, which is a red flag. And then he’s coming off the weird loss to Taira where he gave up his back and was finished.
In some ways, you can put all the analysis to the side and just say you know what, Kavanagh is taking this fight on somewhat short notice, at elevation, against a home crowd favorite in Moreno. Moreno’s only career loss ITD in 34 pro fights came against Taira which wasn’t a real KO, so good luck finishing him.
Moreno is just so well-rounded and so experienced, and on paper has a decisive cardio advantage here. Despite any other matchup analysis, it seems likely that he’d be the fresher man late in the fight and probably does enough to get his hand raised. That is essentially the fair pick to default to.
My concern is that Moreno hasn’t chosen to push a pace in quite some time. He’s not wrestling at a super high rate. I don’t expect either man to land lots of takedowns or dominate on the mat. Moreno just landed 89 distance strikes in five rounds in his last main event win too. That’s not the kind of style on paper that easily beats Kavanagh.
While Kavanagh is fresh, I think he can be just as effective as Moreno from distance, and I honestly think he can win early rounds. If Moreno is just sitting in the center of the Octagon, Kavanagh can easily play a distance game, dart in and out, and land some effective strikes.
Really, I think the most likely outcome is a version of that kind of fight and I think it extends into the latter rounds. Potentially at some point, Kavanagh just won’t be able to keep it up, he’ll slow down and Moreno will be able to pick up the pace. I’m just not convinced of that.
I guess I just want to summarize this by saying, Kavanagh can win rounds here in my opinion and I’d be a little surprised if he didn’t have early success. Perhaps the elevation stuff and pocket defense really matters, and perhaps Moreno is deserving of being a heavy favorite because of it.
However, I just haven’t seen the all-out aggressive Moreno in a while and before Kavanagh was KOd, he was still cleanly outlanding Johnson at distance and to the head. Moreno really should pressure here and force a brawl where he can come out ahead over 25 minutes but if he fights at a more tepid pace, I wouldn’t be that surprised to see him drop rounds in a competitive decision.
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On DraftKings, Moreno is priced at 8.7k in what is one of the stranger slates in recent memory.
We have no mid-range this week, and no fighters priced between 8.4k-7.8k which absolutely sucks. There are not a lot of competitively lined fights, unfortunately, but the pricing makes it worse.
Even if you punt multiple times, you’re still kind of forced into this mid 8k range, where there aren’t many different options to choose from. Instead you can punt three times, which doesn’t feel great. Or you can mega punt to the heaviest underdogs as a way to open up salary relief.
I was hoping Moreno would be like 9.2k here because I would consider him a pretty terrible play and would want to get off of him. Based on the constructions I’ve looked at early in the week, I don’t know how you avoid Moreno.
For example, if you start with Borjas (7k) and Schultz (7.4k) which are two random cheap fighters, you still only have an average of 8.9k left, meaning you’re essentially forced into multiple guys in the mid 8ks, and then you can possibly pay up to the low 9ks. Good luck paying for the 9.4k-9.7k tier.
Yeah, instead you can play 3 dogs but you’re almost certainly not hitting 3 correct dog combos very often as they all carry limited win equity. My fear is that people default to the two dog combos, which means Moreno and every other mid-range option will be squarely in play, in part because there are no other choices.
On paper, Moreno is not a great fantasy play this week in my opinion. He won’t carry a big wrestling projection, and I’d say 1-2 takedowns is probably the expectation. Kavanagh does not absorb strikes at a high rate, and Moreno hasn’t landed strikes recently at a high rate.
Over five rounds, you can project something like 100 sig. strikes landed for Moreno, give or take, which is 70 DK points. And the fight is -137 OVER 4.5 rounds, where Moreno is +135 ITD.
This does not spell elite fantasy target to me and again, I was hoping to get off.
Sorry for the lengthy breakdown but EVEN IF Kavanagh gasses and Moreno picks up a RD 3 KO, do you want that? That could be 60-80 sig. strikes, and a mid-80s score.
Johnson scored 105 points with a late 2nd round finish, so if Moreno wins by RD1/2 KO then he can be optimal for sure. But how likely is that? I’d say not likely personally.
I’m just worried that not only does Moreno not rate out super well in my opinion, but the public will default to him because of the weird pricing dynamics. I cannot fault you for playing him moderately as he’ll project well enough with main event status, but I sort of like the idea of finding ways to get around him when I can.
Kavanagh at 7.5k is OK and one way to get off of Moreno. I don’t think he’ll be super chalky coming off the KO loss but he’ll gain secondary ownership by default.
Kavanagh just doesn’t project well either. I don’t think he’s landing much more than 1-2 takedowns and I don’t think he has a lot of finishing equity at +400 ITD. He’s landing 20-30 strikes per round so even if he gets 125 sig. strikes in a decision win, that’s only 80 DK points.
I guess on this slate, you take 80 DK points.
Essentially, Kavanagh doesn’t rate out very well. I don’t mind fading the main event more than the public this week, hoping for a Moreno decision or extended finish. I’m also not in love with Kavanagh, but I do think he has secondary viability for decision win equity in a kickboxing fight, and I’ll likely still play him around the field percentage.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Moreno by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez
Fight Odds: Martinez -285, Vera +235
Odds to end ITD: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Martinez 8.9k, Vera 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun action fight here between David Martinez and Marlon Vera.
Martinez is a Mexican fighter who is 13-1 professionally. He is 27 years old. He is actually the brother of fellow UFC fighter Melissa Martinez, and I think they are the first brother/sister combination in the history of the UFC.
Martinez comes from a karate background and booked his ticket to the UFC with a striking based decision win on the Contender Series. He outlanded his opponent 79-46 in significant strikes. He made his UFC debut against the very bad Saimon Oliveira and knocked him out in round one.
Martinez then got a step up in competition and took on the extremely experienced Rob Font. Martinez won a competitive 29-28 decision and outlanded Font 62-49 in significant strikes.
Martinez is a striker. He has really consistent and strong leg kicks. His leg kicks are actually the best part of his game. He can completely batter his opponents throughout a fight with them. He also has mild to moderate power and has knocked out plenty of guys on the regionals.
Martinez will counter his opponents with straight punches on the way in too. He will sometimes mix in flashy kicks as well so you can see that karate background in his game. He has some decent speed. He also Is decently evasive and can skirt on the outside and frustrate his opponents.
Martinez’s cardio looks decent too. I do think he lost some speed as the fight went on in his Contender Series matchup. However, he fought tough down the stretch and did against Font as well. I have seen him fight late in other fights with no issue. He also seems tough although I haven’t seen him hit or face much adversity either. He is definitely a solid action fighter who can strike competitively against most guys in this weight class.
Martinez doesn’t look to wrestle often. I’ve seen him defend takedowns reasonably well and work up fine though. I honestly need to see more of his grappling, but I do think his takedown defense and get-up game looks strong. I don’t think offensive wrestling will be something he looks to do too often at this level.
I basically think Martinez looks like a capable striker at this level. He has some power and can maybe get a knockout here and there or win some striking based decisions.
Martinez will be taking on UFC veteran Marlon Vera. Vera is a fighter that I was always a bit skeptical of. His metrics aren’t great and are even worse now after being on the wrong end of an absolute beating against Sean O’Malley. He lands 4.25 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.37 in return. So he is getting hit more than he lands and he also doesn’t have the best striking defense as he only defends strikes at 49 percent. He is also not a guy who will land a lot of takedowns as he only lands 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes.
However, Vera generally outperforms his metrics for a few reasons. First, he has elite durability. He has 35 professional fights, has fought some good fighters, and he has never been finished in his career. So he basically only loses by decision which gives him 15 minutes to make something happen.
Second, Vera is dangerous. So when you couple his danger with his durability, he generally has 15 minutes to find a finish. He does have TKO and submission finishing upside as well so he can sometimes finish fights even when he is losing.
Third, Vera has great cardio, pressure, and pace… and he knows it. He uses his cardio as a weapon and when you combine it with his danger, he can really hurt opponents and change the tide later in fights.
I still don’t totally trust Vera against guys with good cardio, skills, and durability though. I just feel like he will kind of get out skilled and lose those types of fights which happened vs Cory Sandhagen and Sean O’Malley recently. He then lost to Figuereido (which has aged poorly) and Zahabi. However, if fighters have durability or cardio issues, they are definitely at risk to lose against Vera.
As far as this matchup goes, I don’t really think Martinez has durability or cardio issues so I tend to think Martinez can just outpoint Vera in route to a decision. Vera is just a bit too hittable for my liking and Martinez is superior defensively.
So my guess is Martinez just uses that karate style, lands his kicks and his counters and builds a lead in a couple of rounds and hangs on. I do think both guys have the ability to hurt the other but both guys seem very tough. So I tend to think both guys will survive and make it to the final bell.
I do think Vera can stay competitive and if he happens to hurt Martinez then he has a chance to win a decision. However, Vera is just really struggling to win lately because his opponents are not tiring out or not easy to finish. So my guess is we see a similar pattern here.
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On DraftKings, Martinez seems like a terrible play at 8.9k and I don’t plan on rostering him much or at all.
I got burned really badly by the Melky Costa vs. Dan Ige fight last week though. Costa had the worst ITD line of any favorite but a spinning wheel kick to the dome can change all of that.
Here Martinez is +500 to win ITD which is really bad and the worst finishing line of any favorite on the slate. Vera has never been finished in 35 pro fights and there’s not a reason for me to bet on that outcome.
Martinez doesn’t wrestle much either, and in his DWCS decision win and his UFC decision win, Martinez only scored 62 and 66 DK points. Obviously that isn’t enough at 8.9k.
The most likely outcome by far here is Martinez winning a decision and in that situation, I just don’t think he’s optimal. If you want to mix him in with a large portfolio, for contrarian purposes only, at low teens public ownership, feel free. But without a random early KO Martinez doesn’t have many paths to exceeding value and contending for the optimal.
Vera is the preferred target at 7.3k but I still don’t like him much. The primary reason is that Martinez does not like to exchange, and he’s only absorbing 2.95 sig. strikes per minute.
While this is a “high floor” type of play on paper given the high likelihood for it to go the distance, it’s a terrible matchup for Vera to accrue fantasy points. Martinez has allowed 21 and 19 DK points to his last two opponents in decisions.
Vera is +450 to win ITD here and if he gets a KD or a KO, he can score and he can win. He can dish out some damage. Maybe he can get in close and make this fight competitive. Odds don’t suggest it’s super likely.
I’m not completely ruling out Vera for pricing purposes but the matchup is not a good one from a fantasy standpoint and I’d rather invest elsewhere for the most part.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Martinez by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green
Fight Odds: Zellhuber -484, Green +387
Odds to end ITD: -118
DraftKings Salaries: Zellhuber 9.4k, Green 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a clash of generations here as young gun Daniel Zellhuber will be taking on UFC veteran Bobby Green. There is a 13 year age gap here as Zellhuber is 26 and Green is 39.
Zellhuber is decent and is almost exclusively a striker. Zellhuber lands 5.83 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.91. He is long at 6’1” and has a lot of long range tools like front kicks up the middle and straight punches. I consider him pretty solid as a striker with decent volume and cardio, but I am not completely sold on him honestly. In his last upset loss against Michael Johnson, I warned that I thought the line was too wide and I have generally considered Zellhuber overrated.
Zellhuber has looked decent in some fights. I also thought his loss against Esteban Ribovics was a really fun scrap where he was outlanded 156-121 in significant strikes. He can fight at a hard pace.
However, Zellhuber kind of laid an egg vs Trey Ogden and was outstruck at range 71-52 which is honestly embarrassing as Ogden isn’t a good striker at all. Maybe that fight was just an outlier though as Zellhuber has been pretty consistent in other fights. I do question his striking defense though as he is hittable. The Johnson fight was also bad but Johnson does have a lot of speed.
Zellhuber rarely grapples. He lands 0.15 takedowns per 15 minutes.
I still think Zellhuber is a bit untested as a defensive wrestler vs anyone good but he is defending takedowns at 94 percent which is good. I just consider Zellhuber a decent action striker.
Zellhuber will be taking on Bobby Green. We know the drill with Green. Green is a skilled striker, especially with his boxing / jab and he also has good teep / front kicks to the body. Green lands 6.30 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.64 in return. He defends strikes at 62 percent. So his metrics are honestly fantastic and are the main reason why he has been a staple in my betting portfolio for years.
Green will always be competitive with his striking skills and volume and that gives him a high floor in most matchups. He is just a skilled guy and has cardio as well.
Green is also a capable wrestler. He lands 1.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 72 percent and is a tough cat to hold down. He doesn’t have the best top control, but he is capable of landing a couple of takedowns and getting a little bit of control time on the mat.
The only concern with Green is his age. He is 39 years old now and has gotten knocked out a few times in the last couple of years against Drew Dober, Jalin Turner, and Mauricio Ruffy although those are some very dangerous guys. So I am a little more nervous now that he can get knocked out. I also do think he looks a bit declined and thought he underwhelmed in his last matchup vs Lance Gibson Jr.
As far as this matchup goes, I think the line is wide with Zellhuber being -600. Sure, I think Zellhuber is the rightful favorite as he is the bigger and younger fighter. Perhaps Green just shows up looking regressed given his age and Zellhuber just wins clean. I think that is honestly a very possible outcome.
However, Green has skills and I honestly may favor prime green straight up. Zellhuber is also hittable. So would I be that shocked Green cracked Zellhuber occasionally or just stayed competitive in a couple of rounds? Not really. I think this line should be closer.
My guess is we get a somewhat competitive striking fight but I still think picking Zellhuber is the right call given his youth and because I think he has a durability advantage. Green has been hurt a lot lately and Zellhuber is somewhat dangerous and is very durable. My guess is Zellhuber either knocks Green out or we get a competitive 29-28 type of decision.
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On DraftKings, I have mild interest in this matchup and essentially agree with everything Tim said.
While Zellhuber is the rightful favorite, being the much younger guy, the longer striker with solid volume, and most importantly having the short term durability edge, he’s not proven.
Zellhuber excels at distance, yet he has only outlanded ONE OF SIX opponents at distance. He went evens with both Christos Giagos and Lando Vannata, and was easily outlanded at distance by the others.
Green has a +2.08 distance differential according to MMA Labs, while Zellhuber has a -0.48 differential. Factoring in context, and variance for Green’s age and style makes sense but this doesn’t look like a -500 favorite to my eye.
Zellhuber is priced at 9.4k and needs a knockout. I think he can land in fair volume but he rarely wrestles. He’ll need plenty of volume plus a RD 1/2 KO to stand out within this range, most likely.
Zellhuber is -110 to win ITD which is solid. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he won by KO. Green doesn’t like to keep his hands up and he’s been KOd recently. There’s definitely KO equity here.
I just don’t think the KO comes at an extremely high rate and it’s tough to rely on with a big investment this week. Mixing in Zellhuber in tournaments makes sense, but there are plenty of other big favorites in this range who project well, and I lean slightly toward prioritizing most of them.
Green at 6.8k is the best punt on paper this week.
The problem is that he’s still a punt, still +375 to win and still +950 to win ITD. So he won’t rate out well, and he shouldn’t be dramatically prioritized above others nearby.
However from a projection standpoint, this fight is a near pick’em to go the distance and Green can land lots of volume against an opponent who has negative distance differentials. Green could put up 30-40 in a loss reasonably, and he has some decision win equity too.
For pure upside, maybe there’s better punt options. For someone who can go the distance and put up a floor, Green is the best bet on paper. He’ll be an interesting low-end target this week for me as someone who exists and saves salary.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zellhuber by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes
Fight Odds: Chairez -314, Bunes +257
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Chairez 9k, Bunes 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
A low level action fight in the flyweight division, Edgar Chairez will take on Felipe Bunes this weekend.
Chairez is one of the most random names in the division who is definitely not good, but not bad either. He carries a 2-3 record in the division but he’s been able to win a round against both Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira, who will be competing for the flyweight championship next.
I consider Chairez to be a brawler. He’s not super technical but he’s a semi-effective striker with some knockout power. He’s coming off an essential club-and-sub win over CJ Vergara, he hurt Van mildly and he also dropped Taira.
It’s a bit funny too because of his 12 pro wins, eight have come by submission. He’s a decent submission grappler but most of his wins come from the bottom, via armbar, triangle, or jumping a guillotine. He has RNCs on his record too, including his most recent win.
Chairez just won’t ever rate out as a good round winner. He’s landing 3.44 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 5.08 per minute with a 42 percent defensive rate, in part because he got mauled by Van in two of the rounds. He has yet to land a single takedown in the UFC and defends at 33 percent.
Honestly, it’s just hard for me to fake excitement about this kind of profile. Chairez is undoubtedly fun. He’s undoubtedly dangerous. He’s also undoubtedly going to get beaten by the upper echelon of the division on average because his defense is horrid.
Chairez won’t be getting an upper echelon opponent though, and will instead square off with Felipe Bunes who is 1-2 in the UFC.
Bunes is 14-8 as a pro with three wins by knockout and nine by submission. I would label him a primary submission grappler and without a submission, I don’t think he’s going to win very often at the UFC level.
Bunes is a 2nd degree BJJ black belt and he’s probably most dangerous from his back, unfortunately, where he can lock up armbars and triangles. We saw him snatch one up against Jose Johnson for his only UFC win thus far.
The problem is that his wrestling sucks, especially defensively, and it currently sits at 40 percent. He can wrestle offensively a little bit, and he took Van down twice, even mounting him briefly, but he’s just not a physical athlete and doesn’t scramble well.
The win against Johnson came from a Bunes takedown where he was immediately reversed, but that allowed him to lock up the armbar from his back.
Winning from your back is just not a good recipe at the higher levels. He’s coming off an ugly loss to Rafael Estevam who took him down 5 times on 9 attempts for nearly 11 minutes of control. My eyes tell me his wrestling defense is just bad.
On the feet, Bunes is mediocre at best. He has some effective singular strikes and likes to spin and jump, but he’s not a high volume guy. His only pro loss by TKO came against Van who pushed a crazy pace and swarmed him in the second round.
So I wouldn’t say he’s a complete disaster, but his volume and cardio seem to be issues. He’s landing 2.93 sig. strikes per minute and absorbing 4.66 per minute with a 44 percent defensive rate, again stemming from the loss to Van.
This is an ugly matchup, and although I think Chairez is the clear favorite, it’s hard to be sold from his profile.
I think Chairez has more dog in him, and likes to brawl, where Bunes does not excel. An extended fight, in Mexico at altitude, definitely seems to favor Chairez. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Chairez swarm Bunes in the mid rounds and get a TKO stoppage.
It’s also hard for me to completely overlook the fact that Bunes only real chance in the division is to find grappling success, and now he gets an opponent who is defending takedowns at 33 percent. Bunes took Van down a couple of times, and probably can take Chairez down.
I know it’s not worth a real comparison, but I thought Leavitt could take Del Valle down early. I didn’t think he could hold him down but sometimes if your takedown defense is bad, that’s it. Clayton Carpenter took Chairez down three times, won rounds and won the fight.
Could Bunes land two takedowns here and win two rounds? I wouldn’t completely rule out that path. And if Chairez somehow decides to wrestle, perhaps that leads to an opportunistic submission for Bunes as well.
It still seems like Bunes is going to struggle in extended fights and if he cannot control Chairez, he might start taking real damage of which he can’t defend. That’s my guess as to what will eventually happen.
I think Bunes has a decent shot to land a takedown early and steal a round but I favor Chairez over the duration for cardio aspects and being the more effective striker.
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On DraftKings, Chairez is priced up to 9k and might be popular, as he fits in that two-underdog mold where people need to pay into the low 9ks.
Coming off a first round finish with a -135 ITD line, Chairez is a pretty reasonable upside target. He’s made easy work of his weak opposition and I’d put Bunes into that same category.
I still don’t think Chairez is some elite fantasy target though. He won’t carry a real wrestling projection, and he might get taken down early and controlled. The fight is also -143 to go Over 1.5 rounds, and if it does, a late finish or a decision won’t be enough for Chairez.
Even in his first round wins in the UFC, Chairez has scored 93 points both times. It’s because they aren’t coming with knockdowns. So he really needs to just light Bunes up and TKO him in the first or second round to really reach a ceiling.
I do believe that outcome is possible. Chairez landed 79 strikes on Van and had him hurt, and he hurt Taira. So a mid-round TKO is very much on the table.
I think Chairez is a fine tournament target this week. He has a path to win ITD, his opponent sucks, and he’s priced in the range that’s easier to access. I just don’t view him as a stand out or a lock given his profile.
Bunes at 7.2k is one fighter who I could get behind a little bit.
These underdogs are all pretty bad, but at least Bunes is facing someone who can’t defend a takedown. We may also have losers on the optimal on this slate. Can Bunes score 40 in a loss with some takedowns and control? I think that’s in play.
Bunes put up 35 points in a 2nd round TKO loss to Van, and that’s probably what we’re hoping for here, if not more.
Look, Bunes isn’t a great play in reality. He’s a big dog and +500 to win ITD. I don’t think he’s anything other than a low-end target. However, on this particular slate, I can get behind mixing him in given the pricing dynamics and matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chairez by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -434, Borjas +343
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 9.2k, Borjas 7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an anticipated debut here as UFC newcomer Imanol Rodriguez will be taking on Kevin Borjas.
Rodriguez is a Mexican fighter who is 6-0 professionally. He is 26 years old. He actually fought on TUF and lost a split decision (which counts as an exhibition) to the very solid grappling based fighter Joseph Morales. So it at least shows he is proven and can compete with solid guys at this level.
Rodriguez trains with Daniel Cormier and there is a lot of hype on him. I think he is a decent prospect, but I need to see more of him and I need to see him tested against better strikers.
Rodriguez is a boxer. He thrives in close range and in the pocket where he has a lot of power and has sharp and fast hooks. He has plenty of knockout wins. He also has good body shots and can rip his hooks in the pocket and hurt his opponents. He is clearly a skilled boxer and that will be his main path to victory at this level. I definitely think he will tear up weaker competition on the feet.
I am a little less sure of how Rodriguez will strike with some of the better flyweights though. I would like Rodriguez to incorporate more long range tools to his game because I feel like he is generally just landing close range boxing shots which can likely get nullified more as his competition strengthens. It will be interesting how he will adjust if he is fighting more skilled strikes who can kick and fight at different ranges. He may be able to handle it just fine but I am not sure yet. I also just want to see him fight better guys. He hasn’t fought many good strikers and I have seen him tagged. It will be interesting to see his defensive striking tested more.
Rodriguez is a good athlete though and is definitely a skillful boxer with some speed and power.
Rodriguez doesn’t grapple all that much and he was outwrestled a bit by Morales early. However, he still showed some defensive grappling skills in that fight and had his own wrestling success, and I do think he is improving. He isn’t a liability on the mat. He actually outwrestled Morales in round 3 to win the round which was impressive so it showed he does have some grappling equity. I do think he is improving too.
Rodriguez will be taking on Kevin Borjas. Borjas is a Peruvian fighter who is 11-3 professionally. Rodriguez is 1-3 in the UFC, getting beat by Alessandro Costa, Joshua Van, and Su Mudaerji but winning as an underdog in his fight against Ronaldo Rodriguez.
Costa was able to just kind of beat Borjas up and then compromise him with leg kicks and eventually finish Borjas on the mat. Borjas actually hurt Joshua Van early and won the early portions of the fight. However, Van eventually walked Borjas down, got him tired, and beat him up to win a clear decision. Mudaerji was able to just outslick Borjas easily at range.
Borjas had a more manageable fight on the Contender Series against Victor Dias. Dias is a grappler and did have some success taking down Borjas and getting some decent positions. In the last couple of rounds though, Borjas fought back and landed the better strikes. Although referee Chris Tognoni gave an awful standup in round 3 that basically won Borjas the fight. Borjas outlanded Dias 87-43 in significant strikes.
I still don’t think Borjas is great but I do think he looked decent against Ronaldo Rodriguez in his recent win. Borjas showed off some of his striking skills in that fight and managed to put together a solid 15 minute performance without slowing down too much.
I mostly consider Borjas a striker. He is a decent striker and you did see that a bit in his Contender Series fight, in round 1 against Van, and against Rodriguez. His hands are decent and he likes his jab and straight punches. He will also follow up his straight punch combination with a left hook to the body. I do like some of his body shots. He also has okay volume and some pop in his hands. He generally knocked all of his opponents out on the regionals.
I basically think that is all Borjas really has though. He is a decent striker for a bit and moderately dangerous. However, he does get a bit tired. He can be tagged a bit on the feet too and I don’t think he has the best durability. He also doesn’t look like much of an offensive wrestler at all.
I also think Borjas’ defensive grappling is a liability. On the Contender Series, he was taken down and put in really bad positions. He used some physicality to defend takedowns here and there, but he clearly is unskilled as a grappler. I also saw him get club and subbed on the regionals, and I just didn’t like how easily he got his back taken and choked out. You also saw Costa just handle him on the mat too even though Borjas was hurt a bit. I definitely think Borjas will get exposed on the mat at this level.
As far as this matchup goes, I could see some competitive moments because this is a striking fight and striking fights are sometimes random. Also, Borjas isn’t terrible on the feet and I do think there will be some opportunities for Borjas to land on Rodriguez.
I think Rodriguez has a clear durability edge though. We have seen Borjas hurt a lot and Rodriguez is powerful and fast. I also just think Rodriguez is more skilled and dangerous in the pocket. So my guess is these guys just exchange but Rodriguez is just a little faster, a little more skilled, and hurts Borjas a little more often. My guess is Rodriguez eventually finds the knockout.
I also think Rodriguez has some grappling equity here if he chooses. Rodriguez will probably look to strike. However, he outgrappled Morales late so it wouldn’t surprise me if he decided to wrestle here and found some success. Rodriguez definitely has more paths to victory.
This should be a fun one too. Borjas can probably bang for a bit and I think we will see some fun exchanges.
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On DraftKings, this should be a fun action fight, and I like Rodriguez as a prospect and I think he has some potential in this division.
Rodriguez is priced at 9.2k and is arguably boom or bust. He’s not going to rate out as a high volume type because he focuses so much on power boxing, and therefore, he’s going to be more reliant on the knockout.
I do also think he has wrestling equity and he’s been training with Daniel Cormier ever since TUF. I like his athleticism and rounding out his game with wrestling will help him a ton in the long run.
My expectation is that he’ll still want to strike though, and therefore, you want a knockout at 9.2k. He’s -135 to win ITD which is fine. It makes sense because Borjas isn’t easy to finish, but Rodriguez is at a real power advantage here.
I’m fine with using Rodriguez as a secondary/upside play. He’s cheap enough to warrant consideration. I also really like that he goes after the knockout. He will pursue the knockout, and therefore, it becomes more achievable.
I wouldn’t want to be dramatically overweight here because an extended fight is on the table with the fight set -145 to go Over 1.5 rounds. But a RD1/2 KO gives Rodriguez a chance at 100+ points and I’m fine with secondary exposure.
Borjas is priced at 7k and I think he’s viable.
This has a shot at a fight of the night type contest, because Rodriguez is so aggressive and willing to throw. Borjas landed 75 sig. strikes on Van and he could land here. There’s also variance in striking exchanges so maybe he has some KD equity.
My concern is that this is still a pretty poor matchup for Borjas. He has no real wrestling equity and he could easily get taken down and controlled. I don’t know if Rodriguez is the type to yield 80+ strikes. Rodriguez could also just finish him quickly.
Borjas is +350 to win and +500 to win ITD, and you’re probably hoping for 30 points in a striking based loss. It’s hard to be excited by that but he’s cheap enough to warrant some consideration on this slate.
As I’ll mention throughout the event, fighters that simply exist at a cheap price are live for the optimal this week. There’s nothing too exciting about Borjas but he sets up OK for some floor points in striking exchanges and is worth low-end consideration for savings.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco
Fight Odds: Luna -585, Pacheco +442
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Luna 9.3k, Pacheco 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues as Angel Pacheco looks for his first UFC victory against hometown favorite Santiago Luna. Let’s dive in.
Santiago Luna is coming off a very impressive UFC debut with a round one KO over Quang Le last September. That fight wasn’t without controversy though, as the 21 year old had to withstand some early damage before ultimately getting 2 knockdowns and a finish only 2:48 into the fight.
Luna is an-all action fighter. He is now 7-0, with an 100% finish rate split between 3 KOs and 4 submissions. Luna has fallen in love with the hands recently with his solid power, willingness to take one to give one, and an aggressive style. But I would still tend to believe that at his core, he is a primary wrestler.
He is pretty well credentialed with plenty of accomplishments, becoming a four-time National wrestling champion for Mexico, a two-time Pan American qualifier and a two-time World Championship qualifier in greco-roman wrestling. Although he doesn’t have the best open-mat takedowns, he excels against the cage and in chaining together wrestling attempts and body locks.
We haven’t seen the most control on the mat as he is constantly hunting the finish and has become more submission over position, but that has worked out well as he is able to get the back and all his submission wins are by rear naked choke.
On the feet, I do have my defensive concerns. Le hurt him, and his style of walking forward with reckless abandon is sure to one day come back and haunt him. But the truth is I like the fact I’ve seen him fight through adversity. He can rally back and that aggression has worked to his favor to date. He has an all gas no brakes style which is entertaining to the viewer, and his power is typically enough to overwhelm his opponent.
I still don’t know how his cardio and minute winning ability fares, as he is typically getting early finishes and leaves defense to the side, but you have to think he still has some learning to do at the UFC level at 21 years old. Overall, Luna is a great offensive prospect with great aggression, urgency, power and wrestling credentials which lead to solid ground opportunities. However, I would like to see more defense, minute winning ability and proven cardio before trusting him at too high of a clip at the UFC level.
Angel Pacheco makes his third walk to the Octagon this weekend and first his since March of 2024. Pacheco is one of these fighters who earned a contract on the Contender Series off a loss. He had a war with Danny Silva back in 2023 where he attempted 502 strikes. FIVE HUNDRED!
Through two UFC performances, Angel Pacheco has attempted 743 strikes. That is the type of losing fighter that I’m okay with watching (take notes Jose Medina). However, let’s be real. That’s where the positives end for Pacheco. He has plenty of volume and solid durability but lacks power, defensive striking or any form of a ground game.
Pacheco has 30 minutes of cage time under the UFC banner. In that time, he is absorbing 11.47 strikes per minute with a 41% striking defense, and has been taken down 5 times with a 28% takedown defense. Those poor defensive metrics would be okay if he’s landing as well and is keeping it competitive, but he is only landing at 39%, and has been 30-27’d on all scorecards in both matchups.
Pacheco does have good finishing instincts. He has a 100% finish rate regionally with the ability to swarm hurt opponents, but also has a decent rear naked choke if he is able to get the back. But he is facing a pretty low level of competition and we have yet to see him have much success against UFC level talent.
His takedown defense has allowed him to lose minutes on the mat and from range he is getting hit very easily and absorbing plenty of damage. Yes he is tough and can last later into the fight, having never been finished. But it seems like Pacheco is finish or bust. He doesn’t have the ability to win minutes and is actually 0-3 to the decision in his career.
So I would like to see some improvements from Pacheco in the striking defense and takedown defense realm, but that’s not his style. He’s now 34 years old and will remain someone you can win minutes against, but someone you have to be sharp against for 15 minutes due to his solid durability and ability to finish fights himself late.
You have to give it to Pacheco for being in entertaining fights but he is not looking like a UFC level fighter to this point. I like his aggression and finishing ability but I don’t think he has the defensive ability to win minutes against people at this level. He is hit easily on the feet and easily taken down, and both those paths typically allow his opponents to have success in one aspect or another. This lack of defensive ability is why I think Luna is getting this matchup here.
The UFC most likely saw this matchup as a winnable one for the hometown 21-year-old prospect in Luna, and said “hey kid, go out there and put on a show and get the crowd fired up”. I don’t think this is a matchup that Luna can take lightly, as Pacheco can hit hard and Luna is hittable. But Luna should have more paths. Not only as the quicker striker in my opinion, but the aggressor and someone with a clear ground edge shall he decide to use it.
Pacheco is only defending takedowns at 28% and Luna does have a good clinch game to work himself there. Although I’m not the biggest fan of either guy’s defensive striking, I have to give the power edge, forward pressure advantage and wrestling upside to Luna here, to pair with his 13 year age gap towards a victory.
Pacheco is tough so I’m not sure if he gets him out of there on the feet, but he has all the tools to land a big shot, have grappling success or win minutes to a decision. Give me Luna via club and sub here, but it should be an entertaining fight for as long as it lasts.
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On DraftKings, Luna is priced at 9.3k and I’m fairly interested in him.
He’s one of my favorite newer prospects, although I think he’s pretty green and has some issues, I really like his wrestling base. The problem with this particular matchup is that if Luna doesn’t mind his Ps and Qs, he could get caught.
I firmly believe that all fighters have a path to victory no matter how “bad” they are and it’s clear to me Pacheco has one. This guy landed 197 sig. strikes on DWCS in a loss and 88 in a loss to Loughran, surviving both matchups. Yes, he sucks, and isn’t a particularly good athlete with a weak ground game, but you have to respect a guy who’s willing to throw that many punches.
Particularly against Luna, Pacheco has room to land shots here, and he has some KD equity. Luna is great when he’s in control but he’s 21 years old, and there’s some chance he makes a mistake, allows Pacheco into a brawl and loses.
However, Luna is the more dangerous boxer with more power, and he’s miles ahead as a wrestler. It’s tough to say he’s going to KO Pacheco here but he could hurt him. He should be able to land takedowns and a submission is on the table as well.
Luna is -215 to win ITD which is decent, and he’s coming off a 117 point score which may contribute to him being popular. I don’t want to get carried away because he landed 2 KDs in a first round KO though, and I don’t expect him to duplicate that performance.
I mostly view Luna as a high floor option. He should be able to land strikes, he has some KD equity, and he has plenty of wrestling equity. And he has strong finishing metrics. He’s not a lock but for 9.3k I expect a win most of the time and a decent score to come along with it.
He’ll rate out as a solid secondary option this week by default and you could prioritize him in this range outright. I like him more than a handful of other options nearby, to be honest, but many within this range could score well so I don’t want to be tied down. Overall, Luna seems like a strong option in all formats.
Pacheco at 6.9k doesn’t interest me a whole lot. He falls more into the category of hoping this can be a war, and he can land a bunch of strikes in a loss.
Sure he can win that type of fight too but I wouldn’t bet on it, and he’s only +450ish to win. He’s +550 to win ITD.
Pacheco scored 80 in a loss on DWCS and 36 in a loss to Loughran, so there’s some room here for him to be a loser on the optimal. If you told me he’d score 35 points in a loss here, I’d be mildly interested.
My issue is that he may get controlled and finished, so I wouldn’t even count on 35 points. He’s only a very low-end target and someone who you’re essentially playing because he exists at a cheap price tag.
Pacheco might be worth a sprinkle due to the slate dynamics but I won’t end up with too much exposure personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Luna by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
UNDERCARD
Jose Medina vs. Ryan Gandra
Fight Odds: Gandra -656, Medina +486
Odds to end ITD: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Gandra 9.5k, Medina 6.7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
Well, I asked for this breakdown on the podcast last week and instantly regretted it, as I had to be frustrated re-watching Medina fight tape. But here it is, as Jose Medina the “bag of milk” takes on UFC newcomer Ryan Gandra. Let’s dive in.
Let me just take a second to speak my truth a little bit here. Jose Medina does not belong in the UFC. He got a contract because he took a beating on the Contender Series, and now is the proud owner of a 0-4 record under the UFC banner. I typically try to stay positive and be Mr. Nice Guy in these breakdowns, but it just frustrates me to see him still be in the UFC when better fighters are gritting it out regionally.
Also, if you are going to be in Gordo’s “Top 3 Worst Fighters in the UFC list”, you are going to get the piece of my mind you deserve. But let’s get to talking about him.
Medina is not good at anything really, aside from being tough and absorbing damage. Maybe his cardio is good too, but truly the offensive skillset is inexistent. Through four appearances, he is absorbing 5.07 strikes per minute to his 2.16 landed. He doesn’t have much technique or hand speed on the feet, but his durability makes it so he can eat a punch, or 5, to land one of his own.
His wins are split between 8 knockouts, 2 submissions and 1 decision, albeit all coming against weaker fighters, with records of 11-23, 0-2, 6-9 and a few 0-0 fighters. He is also defending takedowns at 27% in the UFC, and doesn’t look to have much off his back.
So, to recap, Medina is slow in the striking, has horrible striking defense, poor ground game, poor takedown defense and has fought a poor level of competition. If I were to compliment anything of his game, against my will, that would be that he is very tough and can weather a storm. He also has a decent clinch game and is solid from top position if he gets there, but often does not have the speed, technicality or physicality to get it there (although he did land a takedown against Zach Reese for what it’s worth).
At the end of the day, Medina always has a puncher’s chance but his win equity is going to be baked in his opponents slowing down and Medina taking over late. That or Medina having something over his opponents family and them throwing the fight. Either way, he is someone who is hard to back since his opponents usually have to beat themselves, and his style is not one I want to back until he makes drastic improvements to his striking offence, takedown defense and overall minute winning ability.
Ryan Gandra makes his UFC debut this weekend after a highlight reel KO in his Dana White’s Contender Series match-up last august. Gandra is a large fighter for the weight class at 6”1, and has also competed at 205 in the past. That size is baked into his fighting style as Gandra utilizes his size and strength to push forward and look to take his opponents heads off.
He is now 8-1 with a 75% finish rate and five wins in the very first round. He’s fun to watch, as he walks forward and has plenty of power in his shots, and follows that all gas no brakes type of fighting style. He has two decent wins in LFA, where he was able to push forward and break his opponents with power.
I have seen him slow down before and the cardio is questionable, but he does have two decision wins on his record so he has shown some ability to dig deep and win minutes. He was also finished in his one professional loss, so the chin may be something to keep an eye on although it hasn’t looked too bad as of late.
Technicality wise, Gandra walks forward and wings big hooks. That’s about it. Not the most set up on his shots, not always throwing in combination, but when he throws, he puts his all into it and hits very hard. That is the prototype for Gandra. Look to land the big power shot and hope his opponent falls.
I haven’t seen much from Gandra on the mat, but he does have a decent body lock and ability to take the back, where I’ve seen him hunt for submissions. He also has decent size and has fended off takedowns well regionally. He is also training with Paulo Costa and Charles Oliveira according to Instagram, so there is some reason to believe that he is getting good looks in at the gym.
Overall, Gandra is a pure power boxer with size, strength and the ability to knock your lights out. I do have my questions about… well, a lot… including cardio, durability and the ground game, and think he is someone who has to show more process to his game before trusting him at a high level. He is someone who will often be dependent on early knockout success, until he can prove he has added more layers to his game.
Jose Medina does not belong at the UFC level and the funny thing about this is that he has a chance to win this matchup. Don’t get me wrong, Gandra should win this fight a large majority of the time. He’s just better, stronger, hits harder and Medina eats punches for breakfast. But Gandra just doesn’t impress me that much. He wings big hooks and will have the ability to walk forward and KO Medina. But his cardio hasn’t looked phenomenal and Gandra is typically someone I want to have early success.
What happens if he can’t KO Medina? I still think he lands more volume and even has grappling equity, but it wouldn’t be the craziest thing to see Gandra gas out at elevation and have Medina have late success. Would I lose my mind if Medina won a UFC fight. Probably. Yes I would. But that is certainly on the table for someone like Gandra here.
Overall, this does seem like a matchup Gandra should win, being the harder hitting striker who will be on the front foot and have a non-UFC caliber fighter in front of him, I just hope he is able to get him out of there early or it might get a little hairy for the large favorite here.
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On DraftKings, Gandra is priced up to 9.5k and is a boom or bust target.
Odds are that he wins ITD early, and he’s showcasing a hefty -250 ITD number. It makes sense, he’ll march forward and throw bombs, and most of his wins come early. An early TKO is probably the most likely outcome here.
I agree with Gordo that Gandra isn’t a special prospect and I’m glad he hadn’t taken up any of my brain space prior to this week. His cardio looks extremely questionable to me, and I don’t know if he’s anything other than a middling talent with some power. He can also get fights to the mat but doesn’t seem elite there.
Gandra has a decent chance of finishing the fight early, so he’s a viable upside target. He can score 100-110 points and contend for the optimal. If you can afford him, you can consider playing him.
I don’t know if I consider him a stand out target in this range though. Medina is historically tough and durable and can extend the fight. Others have more wrestling equity. And Gandra is expensive.
Just due to pricing alone, Gandra is more a secondary option than a primary one. I wouldn’t want to be super high on him in this spot because all of these high-priced options have chances to put up big scores, and that creates a lot of variance within this range.
But obviously Gandra will rate out well for early finishing equity. He’s a decent tournament target for his win condition and if you can pay up this far you should consider him.
Medina at 6.7k is not a particularly strong underdog.
You’re hoping he survives and can take over the fight late. I wouldn’t completely rule it out and it seems like he’d definitely have the cardio advantage late. Can he produce any offense though? Idk. He’s only +600 to win ITD.
On this slate, taking a punt with any underdog is fine. Obviously Medina has no floor and thin win equity, so he’s not a great play. I wouldn’t mind punting with him on occasion though as he’s not drastically worse than other options nearby.
This is a super low end dart throw type of play and you’re betting on fight narratives more than anything else. Only worth a small sprinkle but more viable on this slate than others.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gandra by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez
Fight Odds: Perez -165, Chiasson +140
Odds to end ITD: +230
DraftKings Salaries: Perez 8.5k, Chiasson 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fight between two longtime UFC bantamweight veterans here in Ailin Perez and Macy Chiasson.
Perez has been a thorn in my side. She is not a very good fighter but she keeps winning mostly because WMMA is just very bad. I do think Perez has improved, but I still don’t think she is very good.
However, what I think doesn’t always matter, and Perez does keep winning fights. She is now 5-1 in the UFC with wins over Ashlee Evans-Smith, Lucie Pudilova, Joselyn Edwards, Daria Zhelenznyakova, and Karol Rosa. She lost her UFC debut by RNC to Stephanie Eggar.
I mostly profile Perez as a grappler who aggressively pursues takedowns. She is not skillful and many of her takedowns are head and arm based which is a red flag. However, she is a thick and physical girl and pursues takedowns persistently. She has landed 1, 10, 2, 6, 2, and 2 takedowns in her six UFC fights. I think she will continue to outwrestle weak competition in this division. She also has some decent ground-and-pound from top position.
Good grapplers will absolutely shut Perez down and beat her though like we saw against Eggar. I also don’t love the defensive grappling of Perez. She defends takedowns at 66 percent which is fine but she has really bad get-ups, and I have seen her held down for long stretches in bottom position. I also think she can just get finished on the mat as well.
Perez’s striking is a bit of a means to an end. She lands 3.10 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.79 in return. However, most of her strikes come in top position so I consider her striking numbers skewed. She isn’t awful on the feet. She stayed competitive on the feet with Joselyn Edwards and hurt her with a spinning backfist. She has some decent pop. She also showed some improvement standing against Karol Rosa and didn’t look bad there. However, I am more comfortable with Perez winning fights if she is consistently landing takedowns.
I don’t want to completely shit on Perez. She has clearly outperformed my expectations and has beaten decent fighters like Rosa and Edwards. She is clearly capable of outwrestling a lot of girls in this division. I still just think she has some flaws, especially on her back. I also don’t think her striking is great so I do think she will lose some fights at some point.
Perez will be taking on Macy Chiasson. Chiasson has a few things going for her. She generally doesn’t strike from distance that much. She eventually clinches up and is more comfortable winning fights in the clinch with position against the cage, or with takedowns and top position.
Chiasson lands 3.50 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.86 in return. Her numbers are skewed though because she lands a lot of ground-and-pound. Chiasson just seems uncomfortable at distance. Chiasson usually strikes from distance for moments and then the fight becomes a clinching affair and grappling match that Chiasson usually wins because of her physicality. I do think Chiasson has power though and is capable of hurting girls at range.
My issue with Chiasson is that she doesn’t have the best technical wrestling. She does land 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 72 percent. Those are decent metrics. However, she just isn’t the best technical wrestler, and I don’t totally trust her to land takedowns on anyone with competent takedown defense. We have also seen Chiasson taken down herself and struggle to get up.
Chiasson is just big though and she has landed 14 takedowns in her last six fights. She also beat Norma Dumont and landed 6 takedowns in that fight which is a great win. So even though her takedowns look weird and awkward, she is a big girl and is somehow landing takedowns. Once on top, she is capable of using her size and getting the back and beating girls up and threatening with submissions.
Chiasson lost her last two matchups against Yana Santos and Ketlen Viera. However, both fights were extremely competitive and had Chiasson just landed a takedown a bit earlier vs Santos, she could have won. So I don’t think Chiasson is done or anything.
As far as this matchup goes, I honestly think either girl is fully capable of winning and it may just depend on whoever decides to shoot a takedown first.
Perez seriously has defensive grappling flaws and I think people are forgetting about them. I really think Chiasson can land takedowns here and actually finish Perez on the mat. I think if Chiasson gets on top, Perez could be in a lot of trouble. I also think Chiasson could land some heavy strikes in close quarters. I am actually going to pick Chiasson for the upset again because I just think Chiasson will go for takedowns, and probably land a couple and get some good positions here.
The thing is I always pick Perez fights wrong, and she has paths to victory here so I will probably be wrong here again. Chiasson can be taken down and held down. Perez landing some takedowns and obtaining control time and winning some rounds is fully in play. Furthermore, Perez could maybe win some striking time at distance too. The distance striking in general will be messy here.
I still just think Perez is going to get exposed at some point and I think Chiasson’s top game is actually pretty dangerous so I will go with the upset here.
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On DraftKings, this is the closest we get to a mid-range fight and given the potential for wrestling exchanges, it’s a fight I like.
I expect Perez to be somewhat popular here, coming off five wins in a row, with three of those scoring 108 or more. At 8.5k, that’s extremely intriguing.
If Perez wins, I do think takedowns will be involved again. Chiasson can be taken down and held down, and ultimately, the fact that Perez attempts about 9 takedowns per fight is a huge bonus. She can smash weaker grapplers with top control and ground-and-pound.
I do hesitate here though, and I don’t necessarily view Chiasson as the easiest fighter to grapple smash. Perez is only +425 to win ITD. Chiasson has issues but there’s some context needed with her losses.
What this comes down to is that Perez will project well enough in a win case for her price tag and should be considered a solid secondary play. I like Chiasson more than the market personally, and therefore I think Perez is more likely to bust than the public will, but if she wins, takedowns will be involved and she’ll have a path to exceeding value.
I don’t mind being underweight to Perez on this slate but for 8.5k, she’ll rate out as a clear secondary target who will be easy to mix in at the price.
Chiasson at 7.7k interests me as well, and she sneakily smashes when she wins.
It’s because she accrues so much clinch control time and lands non-sig. strikes, we’ve gotten 100+ point scores in six of her seven UFC wins…..
I don’t particularly trust Chiasson and wouldn’t be surprised if she lost, but she’s way bigger than Perez and has a way better top game. Perez has worse TDD than Chiasson on paper and Perez has already been subbed by an opponent who I wouldn’t label as great.
Chiasson might just be able to muscle Perez around, take her down a couple of times and get a RNC. And I don’t think the public will want to chase this based on her yucky recent performances.
Chiasson is only +425 to win ITD but I think she’s a potentially sneaky target this week. Maybe she’ll be forced in due to pricing dynamics but I think she has a legit shot to win and exceed value. She’ll be one of my favorite underdog targets, all things considered.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chiasson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Cristian Quinonez vs. Kris Moutinho
Fight Odds: Quinonez -661, Moutinho +489
Odds to end ITD: -251
DraftKings Salaries: Quinonez 9.7k, Moutinho 6.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have what will likely be a fun action fight here between Cristian Quinonez and Kris Moutinho.
Quinonez is 17-5 professionally. Quinonez fought on the Contender Series and won by decision in a fight that generally played out at range. He was actually outlanded 78-76 in significant strikes. However, he dominated the head strike battle and just landed the more eye-catching shots and rightfully was awarded the decision. He also knocked down his opponent.
I generally consider Quinonez a striker and more specifically a boxer. I consider his hands adequate but not anything special. He has a good jab and is reasonably accurate with his punches. He keeps a moderate pace. I think he can compete with the lower tier fighters of this promotion, but I honestly doubt he goes far in this division. Bantamweight is just too good.
Quinonez knocked out Khalid Tafa in his UFC debut and you saw some of his boxing skill in that fight. He then fought Kyung Ho Kang. He hurt Kang early but then got clipped going for the kill, put on his back, mounted, and submitted. Him getting hurt so easily was a bit concerning, but I was honestly more concerned with the way he was easily handled on the mat.
He was also in a back and forth war with Raoni Barcelos and also submitted. That was a fun fight and Quinonez’s defensive grappling wasn’t awful but good grapplers can surely beat him.
I have seen Quinonez land a takedown here and there. However, I don’t think he is a great offensive wrestler, and he doesn’t really hold top position well. He barely has any submission wins in his career. I doubt offensive grappling is a path to victory for him at this level.I just feel like Quinonez is a decent striking based action fighter at this level and that is about it.
Quinonez will be taking on Kris Moutinho.The best way to describe Moutinho is a punching bag. He has been knocked out in his last two matchups and he just absorbs so many strikes.
I actually don’t think Moutinho is that bad. He is a brawling striker with a pretty crazy pace and lots of volume. He kind of reminds me of a male version of Priscilla Cachoeira. Like her, he is very hittable and doesn’t have great skills considering he blocks strikes with his face.
However, he is SUPER aggressive, willing to throw hard shots, and will come forward hard with reliable cardio for 15 minutes. He is actually very fun to watch. I just don’t think his brain likes his style of fighting.
My issue with Moutinho is that a lot of his success comes in close quarters so he is super susceptible to big shots coming in. He has been dropped several times and knocked out several times in his career. However, like Cachoeira, I honestly think that he could beat some UFC competition by a random KO landing for him or by gassing his opponents out. He will certainly get knocked more times along the way as he is too reckless though.
Moutinho also seems to be a somewhat competent grappler when he gets in top position. However, he doesn’t really shoot for a lot of takedowns and just likes to brawl. Most of the times that he gets top position is from a random knockdown or by his opponents falling over due to exhaustion. So I still consider his pace to be his greatest weapon. I think his success in general, whether it is with striking or grappling, will come when his opponents are exhausted.
I just feel like this will be another shitshow. Moutinho will come forward and probably get knocked out. I am going to pick that to happen as Quinonez is more skilled overall.
If Moutinho survives, this will just become a mess where I would still favor Quinonez based on having some form of defense. I think Moutinho’s best chance is by randomly landing a knockout or by gassing Quinonez and finishing him on the mat.
I still just know Moutinho will get hit very very hard so it is hard to pick him in any matchup at this point. So Quinonez is the pick and most likely by knockout.
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On DraftKings, this is a hilarious fight that should result in a knockout.
The fight is -250 to end inside the distance which honestly isn’t as strong as I might have expected.
Quinonez is the heaviest priced fighter on the board at 9.7k and although he’s extremely boom or bust, he’s very likely to win ITD at -171 and a KO is the most likely outcome in my mind.
The issue primarily is price. According to MMA Labs, there have been 19 fighters priced 9.6k or higher over the last 26 13-fights slates, but only 3 have been optimal. Funny enough, one was Wellmaker in his last matchup against Moutinho, although he only scored 110 at 9.8k.
If I told you Quinonez also gets 110, would you want to roster him? Probably not. The other two who have been optimal were Talbott who scored 130 and Umar who scored 127.
It’s difficult because Quinonez does have a bit of juice on top of his traditional paths, meaning he could win in the first 60 seconds, and he could land multiple knockdowns. Moutinho is so hittable and so vulnerable that some crazy outcomes can occur.
Typically speaking, Quinonez is reliant on the KO which doesn’t give you a massive ceiling in comparison to grappling. At 9.7k, it’s a tough sell to make him a priority.
The bottom line is that most of the lineups you make probably won’t have enough salary to fit in Quinonez. By default, he’s not a must and not a true priority. If you can afford him, he’s still a solid option because an early KO is very much on the table and 110 points or so is a reasonable outcome.
I’d like some exposure to Quinonez if I’m able to pay up this high but I won’t sweat it too much if I happen to fall elsewhere in the 9k range.
Moutinho is priced at 6.5k and I honestly think he’s live.
Obviously I’m not going to pick him to win and obviously he’s going to rate out as a terrible play. However, Quinonez has been dropped in his last two fights and isn’t very good.
There’s a very good chance we just get a brawl type of fight where yes I favor Quinonez, but Moutinho can land shots too. There’s too much variance in striking exchanges to ever be that confident.
I think Green is the best play on paper in this range to go 3 rounds and score OK. Moutinho may be the most likely of the group to win by early KO. I’m not saying it’s a great chance but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
Moutinho is still a huge dog with no floor, and he’s only +652 to win ITD. He won’t rate out well. You do not need to play him.
On this particular slate, falling into the punt tier which I think is 7k and below is very realistic. Of this group, we’re not expecting any winners and none have much win equity. Of the group, Moutinho is arguably among the worst but not by a large margin.
If you have a big portfolio, I think playing a touch of Moutinho is fine as he actually carries knockout upside, and he can throw volume over 15 minutes too against someone who will oblige. It’s not the worst play in the world on this slate (maybe it is). We’ll see.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Quinonez by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes
Fight Odds: Reyes -229, Andrade +192
Odds to end ITD: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Reyes 8.6k, Andrade 7.6k
Weight Class: 145
Another recent DWCS winner, Javier Reyes will make his UFC debut on Saturday against the veteran Douglas Silva de Andrade.
Reyes is 22-5 professionally at age 32, born in Colombia and fighting out of Arizona, Reyes has earned 10 wins by knockout and eight by submission. He was the Combate Global featherweight champion. Apparently he was 30-0 as an amateur as well.
I don’t consider Reyes a real prospect, personally. I view him as a solid regional fighter who can probably compete in the lower levels of the UFC’s featherweight division, but I don’t expect him to win much more than he loses.
The DWCS broadcast was talking about his parkour background and it just sounds like he lives an active lifestyle. He doesn’t come from any deep mixed martial arts pedigree that I’m aware of.
On the feet, Reyes is somewhat of a brawler. He lacks the technique to be anything else. He can fight aggressively and throw power shots, but he really lacks defense which is what stands out to me. His hands are down and his chin is in the air, and although he’s only been knocked out a couple of times, one of those instances came in 2024.
Reyes has a decent amount of stoppage wins in rounds two and three, and his toughness and cardio seem to be strong points in his game. He doesn’t always have a lot of immediate success, but he’s willing to fight through a bit of adversity and wear down opponents, which I like.
Additionally, he can wrestle a little bit. I don’t consider him an elite wrestler and grappler but his grappling may be the best part of his game. I’ve liked some of his takedowns, and he can transition to the back where he’s picked up several RNCs in his career.
Outside of the recent KO loss, Reyes also lost a recent decision to Chris Mecate who is pretty decent. Mecate just outclassed him on the feet mostly and defended his takedowns. Good technicians will beat Reyes generally. Reyes still was marching forward and trying to wrestle which I liked.
This is just an experienced and well-rounded fighter who lacks the technique to beat legit UFC competition. He lacks some defensive processing. But offensively he’s adequate and his ability to fight and score offense late is a positive.
Reyes will be taking on Douglas Silva de Andrade who I’m a bit annoyed to have to write about in 2026.
Andrade is 40 and has been in the UFC since 2014, and I’ve never been too high on him.
He’s an explosive striker, and he’s juiced to the gills, but for the most part has only been able to trade wins and losses for his entire career. He’s too slow. He’s not technical enough, and he doesn’t have a deep enough game to beat good competition.
Andrade averages 3.54 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.93 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. It’s fine. He has some power and can occasionally win by knockout.
He’s tough as well and has only been knocked out once, by Petr Yan, though he’s been knocked down a few other times.
It’s just that when we get three rounds of Andrade, we see 36, 61, 28, 39, 74 strikes landed. His volume upside is pretty weak and he’s more dependent on damage.
Andrade doesn’t really wrestle either, only landing 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s landed two takedowns in his last eight fights combined.
Defensively he’s mediocre, defending at 72 percent. He’s actually held up well recently to Cody Stamann and Miles Johns, so I have to give him credit. Rob Font finished him on the mat back in the day.
Once he’s taken down he can be controlled but he is physical and isn’t a super easy fighter to just wash out on the mat.
Overall, Andrade is just super limited. Limited volume. He doesn’t wrestle. He’s old. He’s a fine striker and has some power and experience, but that’s about it.
In terms of the matchup, I lean toward Reyes but I don’t feel amazing about it.
Reyes is probably the more aggressive guy and willing to throw bigger shots. Knocking out Andrade isn’t super easy though and I suspect Reyes will get hurt and finished himself again at some point.
I would consider striking exchanges to be generally high-variance. Andrade definitely has a shot for success early but he’s not super fast and probably the longer the fight goes, the more Reyes can wear him down at altitude.
I think Reyes is the more willing wrestler here and has some upside on the mat as well. Landing 1-3 takedowns seems pretty reasonable and if he gets them, I wouldn’t be totally surprised by a submission.
I like the overall game of Reyes at this point but from a profiling sense, he’s not someone I’ll ever feel exceptionally confident in. Unless Andrade is landing big shots and hurting him, Reyes probably does more over the duration and maybe picks up a finish along the way.
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On DraftKings, Reyes is priced at 8.6k and makes for a fine tournament upside play.
There’s only one fighter priced between Reyes at 8.6k, and Chiasson at 7.7k, so if you’re in need of someone in this salary range, Reyes obviously fits. I think that will make him a semi-popular target by default.
I don’t hate it. The fight is -155 to end inside the distance, and Reyes is +110 to win ITD, which isn’t bad for 8.6k. Stylistically he can produce finishes and with Andrade aging, I wouldn’t be surprised if he got finished.
I don’t consider this an amazing points per minute play though. Reyes won’t be landing a super high number of strikes. Without takedowns, he’s super boom or bust and Andrade is still really tough to knock out. This isn’t amazing chalk to be on.
However, there’s the addition of wrestling which I suppose helps Reyes quite a bit. It just gives him more outs and also increases his fantasy floor/ceiling. Regardless, he’s priced well so mild/moderate upside in order to physically make constructions work makes sense.
I’m not dying to be overweight here as Andrade rarely gives up big wins. I mean, he only gave up 60 points to Lerone Murphy, 59 to Said Nurmagomedov and 51 points to Johns. So this is clearly a play that may not work out if Reyes doesn’t secure a finish.
Again, at the price tag on this type of slate, he’s still a viable upside option as a mid-round finish could help exceed value and allow him to contend for the optimal.
Andrade is priced at 7.6k and is a very mediocre play.
The primary reason to consider him is because he has some of the best win equity of any underdog on the slate. Except that win equity is only like 35 percent, or less.
And with it comes very little striking, and no wrestling. You’re essentially hoping for a knockout.
The only caveat is if you get a 57 point win like we saw from Andrade in his most recent decision, is that enough on this slate at 7.6k? I really don’t know, but I’d guess probably not. I’d probably rather pay down $500-$1000 and get 35-40 DK points from someone else.
Andrade is +360 to win ITD which is OK, and Reyes has been knocked out before. Andrade is obviously experienced against high level competition. And he can compete on the feet.
I’m not ruling out a win, or a knockout. Using him as a low-end secondary target for win equity is viable. This is still just a gross option with no floor and not someone I feel any confidence in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Reyes by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin
Fight Odds: Kareckaite -195, Train 170
Odds to end ITD: +225
DraftKings Salaries: Kareckaite 9.1k, Tarin 7.6k
Weight Class: 130
I’m pretty disappointed that Sofia Montenegro pulled out of this matchup on Wednesday, but the UFC saved the fight by calling up undefeated Mexican prospect Regina Tarin to take on Ernesta Kareckaite.
Tarin is 7-0 professionally at age 21, earning four wins by knockout and two by submission. She trains out of the UFC PI in Mexico and was scheduled for a muay thai bout this week.
Tarin is a big, athletic girl and that’s what stands out to me most. Given her build and her frame, I’m pretty hopeful for her development and potential.
As I always say with 21 year olds or fighters this young, I still have hesitations because she simply has not had enough time on planet earth to develop her skills. Let’s wait seven years and then decide how good Tarin is or can be.
For now, her skill set is a mixed bag. Despite the frame and build, most of her fights are made up of Tarin aggressively clinching with soccer moms, body lock dragging them down to the mat and beating them up from top position.
I don’t view her wrestling as great to be honest, but given her build and frame, she is physical in the clinch. Her body lock takedowns are fine and she can beat weak competition with that style. Her submission grappling doesn’t stand out to me but on top, she can advance position a bit and she has decent ground-and-pound.
I am much less excited by her striking, though she has potential there. I think her kicks are her best weapons and you can tell she has power in her legs. She honestly hasn’t had that many minutes of distance striking in her career though.
In one of her most recent bouts against Neil, Tarin was able to strike, and she kind of just backed Neil up and landed at will. I liked to see aggression there and it gives me some hope for her. I still view it as a weak opponent who didn’t offer much in return and couldn’t ever find the range.
My biggest concern really is that when Tarin is backed up at all, or pressured, she auto clinches. I don’t necessarily think her clinch grappling game is elite and will work against good competition. If she can’t default to banging and getting in some higher paced exchanges, I don’t love her ceiling.
This is a tough debut test against Ernesta Kareckaite who is 6-1-1 professionally, fighting out of Lithuania at age 27 with a couple of knockouts on her record.
She was a swimmer as a youth and looks to be a strong athlete as well, but I don’t think she has any legitimate pedigree as far as martial arts go.
Kareckaite excels on the feet, and I think the combination of her athleticism, volume and cardio will give her a chance to win rounds in this division.
She is freaking huge too – Kareckaite is 5’9” and she’ll be a few inches taller than most opponents, with a decent reach as well. This type of build and athletic base will provide some level of threat.
Kareckaite mostly fought poor competition on the regionals prior to her DWCS fight, and her results were mediocre. She fought a Judo girl twice by the name of Laetitia Blott, and escaped with one draw and one split decision win.
Blott would take her down a bunch of times but Kareckaite was able to neutralize some of it, and she scrambled to take Blott’s back on a few different occasions.
On DWCS, Kareckaite fought Carli Judice and they just came out swinging for three rounds, and the totals were pretty nuts. Kareckaite landed 180 significant strikes and absorbed 168 in return.
That type of performance further suggests to me that Kareckaite has legit cardio and pacing. The majority of her fights go the distance, and with that kind of volume (and background in a sport like swimming), I think cardio may be one of her best attributes.
Since then, we’ve seen her pick up a loss and a win against Dione Barbosa and Nicolle Caliari respectively. Barbosa was able to ground her early in the fight and slowed down pretty dramatically where Kareckaite nearly took over and won.
Against Caliari, Kareckaite outlanded her 87-63 at distance but gave up a few takedowns, and only won a split.
I think Kareckaite’s range skills and aggression give her a legit floor in striking exchanges, but she still hasn’t been able to run away with rounds easily.
She doesn’t have incredible power. She has a couple of KO wins on her resume but those came very early in her career against weak competition. At least one came on the ground too.
The mat has been somewhat of a weakness for Kareckaite but it’s not a severe one. Her first-level takedown defense, in combination with her athletic build, has been OK. But ultimately she has been taken down several times and I feel a good wrestler would be able to get on top of her.
I’ve seen Kareckaite transition to the back several times, which tells me she has a decent understanding of submission grappling. Her lengthy limbs help her in this regard. But I don’t see an incredible threat in any position and I feel like at best, her submission grappling will only be good enough to neutralize opponents.
Despite the short notice, this matchup is trending as the most competitively lined fight on the slate, in part because Tarin is an undefeated young prospect who people will enjoy.
I do understand lining the fight competitively, and I think it’s a bit hard to judge the skills of Tarin completely given her level of competition. I’m not super worried about the short notice aspect and I think Tarin can fight for three rounds just fine, though it’s plausible she could tire out in a higher paced fight.
At this point, I have to favor Kareckaite at distance over three rounds. We’ve seen insane volume from her and in most fights, Tarin isn’t willing to throw that much.
Plus, while Tarin is big and athletic, she’s only 5’7” with a 67-inch reach. Kareckaite is huge and will be bigger at 5’9” with a 71-inch reach. So Tarin is fighting a huge step up in competition from a physical perspective.
Instead of getting these small soccer moms, she has a huge athlete in front of her who can spam volume. I am a bit skeptical that Tarin’s skill set will easily overcome this challenge, especially at 21 years old, on short notice.
I do think Tarin can compete in all areas though. She’s big enough and athletic enough. When she throws she looks fine. Her kicking game is decent. I just think Kareckaite will hang in there and probably exceed her volume, and I’d have to favor her to do more over three rounds.
Where Tarin may need to win is on the mat. Although I don’t love her clinch game, it’s a way to stop Kareckaite here. It’s a way to change the dynamic. Get on top of Kareckaite is the best way to stop her from punching you in the head.
I’m pretty skeptical that Tarin can do it successfully, but given that Kareckaite has allowed takedowns to weak competition, it is a path to victory. On top, Tarin has potential to control the fight, land GnP and win rounds. I also think Kareckaite can scramble up at times and limit the damage.
Ultimately, it’s fair to make this a competitive fight because Kareckaite is typically in competitive fights. Tarin has enough skills and athleticism in her base to give her a chance, at home in Mexico.
I am uncertain exactly how she gets it done and I feel favoring Kareckaite for what we’ve seen thus far is correct. But a competitive striking affair with some clinch grappling success is certainly in the realm of possibilities and it makes Tarin a live underdog at least.
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On DraftKings, this is a weird fight that I may feel obligated to play.
The side I may feel obligated to play is Tarin, who is 7.6k and one of the most likely winners on the slate at +170.
While I don’t love her volume striking, we have such limited data that I think a lot of outcomes are in play. She could win a striking based decision. She could land takedowns.
At 7.6k, if you get a winner, the winner probably will contend for the optimal given it might be the only winner on the whole slate. I do like other dogs personally but it’s hard to feel confident in any of them.
While I don’t think Tarin is an amazing play, she’s +425 to win ITD and I don’t really trust her game, I’m open to the idea the fight could be competitive. At that point, she’s a viable secondary option.
My guess is Tarin could see some ownership due to the situation. I wouldn’t want to be much above the field but she’s priced cheaply enough that secondary exposure for win equity makes sense.
Karekcaite is now overpriced at 9.1k and was already a tough sell.
The only real merit here is in hoping Tarin is a fraud. If this is truly a big step up in comp for her, on short notice, maybe she just can’t compete and gets washed out. Maybe she gets hurt and finished.
We’ve also seen Kareckiate land extreme volume numbers, so there are outs for her, but it’s not something I can project for her to land 180+ strikes again. She’s also only +425 to win ITD.
There are so many strong favorites this week that I’m likely going to be very low on Kareckiate, and I assume the field will as well. She’ll be a contrarian option and not one I’m particularly fond of.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kareckaite by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall
Fight Odds: Marshall -725, Silva +525
Odds to end ITD: -328
DraftKings Salaries: Marshall 9.6k, Silva 6.6k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Two guys coming off long layoffs in Francis Marshall and Erik Silva will bang it out this weekend.
Marshall was last seen in action in March of last year, losing a very controversial split decision to Marion Santos. The fight was very close, especially on rewatch but I did think Marshall was going to get the nod. It was still a good performance win or lose though as Santos is solid.
Coming from a wrestling background, Marshall likes to mix in takedowns and look for the back. About half of his wins on the regionals have come from RNC. He has fought good competition in the UFC though and hasn’t had the same submission success.
Marshall has a good double leg. He landed 6 of 10 takedowns in his Contender Series fight. I don’t think he has the best top control though. He is capable of floating in someone’s guard or getting the back. However, I don’t think he will easily hold down competent scramblers. I do think he has good GNP though. He also did have some wrestling success vs Santos which was impressive.
Marshall is actually a pretty decent striker too. He outlanded his Contender Series opponent 101-74 at distance and dominated the head strike battle 101-51. He has a really good 1-2 straight punch combination and is accurate with it. I also think he has decent power. He kept hurting his opponent. He also showed crisp striking against Marcelo Rojo and knocked him dead. Since then he has shown competency standing against Buzukja and Santos.
I do think Marshall is a bit green though and is developing which makes sense because he is only 26 years old. He doesn’t throw much other than the 1-2 and I do think he can get tagged a bit. He is tough though.
I still have hope for Marshall though just because of his overall offensive output / pace and youth. This kid is offensive minded and has the cardio to fight for 15 minutes. He also has no major holes and can fight in all areas.
Marshall will be taking on Erik Silva. Silva is 0-2 in the UFC and I am surprised he has a roster spot considering he is now 39 years old and doesn’t have a UFC win. He made his UFC debut against TJ Brown and got finished in round 3. He was then knocked out by Muhammad Naimov in 2024 and hasn’t fought since. He is 9-3 professionally and 39 years old.
Essentially his regional fights are him taking down his opponents and RNC’ing them early. He is a decent back taker and will aggressively go for GNP. However, his competition has been SO bad and I only think he can really get his game going vs bad competition.
I have seen Silva taken down before too on the regionals and him getting owned by TJ Brown on the mat was a bad look too.
On the feet, Silva doesn’t look very athletic or anything. However, he throws calf kicks. That is really it.
I really don’t have many good things to say about Silva, and I am puzzled by the matchmaking. Perhaps the UFC is giving Marshall an easy win after the Santos fight?
I really just think Marshall is better everywhere. Marshall is a better striker, a better wrestler, is younger, and more athletic. Marshall also has better cardio.
I think Silva’s best chance is just to randomly get a back taking submission early? Or just a random “this is mma and shit happens” type of KO. Marshall should beat him up and will probably knock him out.
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On DraftKings, Marshall is super expensive at 9.6k but arguably worth it.
He has decent pacing, decent wrestling equity, and now facing an older opponent which allows for more finishing equity too. Marshall is -311 to win ITD here which is the best line on this slate.
I’m honestly not sure if he’s an elite target though. I do think Marshall has paths to a big ceiling, and therefore, I suppose he’s worth considering as one of the priorities in the top end. I do view him as more of a floor target than an outright ceiling target though.
Marshall isn’t a true knockout artist and Silva’s only pro loss by KO was the last one, where he got spinning wheel kicked to the dome in the first round. I’m not sure how predictive that is.
Additionally, Silva still took TJ Brown down three times before he got finished late. He’s not a terrible grappler. He allowed 104 DK points to Brown in that fight.
I suppose the primary issue comes back to the pricing. Marshall could look great, win ITD in a variety of ways, score 108 DK points and not come close to the optimal. By default, he does not need to be a priority.
I do like Marshall because he has multiple paths though. He can land multiple takedowns, he can win ITD on the feet or on the mat. He has lots of win equity and the most finishing equity on the slate. He seems safe to put up a strong score and I don’t mind exposure to him.
I’m honestly not sure if he’ll try to wrestle though, in which case, he’s more dependent on the KO which I don’t love as much. He still needs to clear a huge score to stand out amongst this range.
It’s going to be difficult to pay up this far on average so I’m not necessarily going to force in a ton of Marshall this week. However, he’ll project very well and is among the more safe options on the slate, and if you can afford him, he’s absolutely in the mix.
Silva at 6.6k is a low-end punt option.
All of the fighters in this tier have viability this week, including Silva. Marshall, in his wins, is allowing 25.6 fantasy points to opponents on average, according to MMA Labs. Silva scored 35 in his loss to TJ Brown.
Marshall isn’t terrible as a defensive wrestler but the only time he’s fought a wrestler, he was run over and finished quickly. So I wouldn’t be shocked by some early success from Silva or a competitive first round. He should be super low owned too.
Obviously there’s no reason to get carried away here and I don’t like Silva much more or less than others in this range. I wouldn’t rule him out on this specific slate though if you need a salary punt and I don’t mind a small sprinkle.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Marshall by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=High)
Wes Schultz vs. Damian Pinas
Fight Odds: Pinas -255, Schultz +212
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Pinas 8.8k, Schultz 7.4k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night gets started with a clash of Contender Series prospects making their debuts, as Wes Schultz takes on Damian Pinas. Let’s dive in.
Wes Schultz is coming off a very impressive first-round submission victory via Suloev Stretch on Dana White’s Contender Series last October. That was his second attempt at a contract, as he was the unfortunate opponent of the rising and now 4-0 inside the UFC Mansur Abdul-Malik in 2024.
He actually made a decent account for himself in that matchup. Schultz was a massive underdog, but managed to scramble well, show solid durability and even threaten a finish against Mansur before ultimately slowing down himself and getting finished.
Schultz is a primary grappler with a D3 wrestling background. Although a bit awkward on the feet, he is pretty dangerous on the mat. Five of his eights wins come via submission, and his 2 KO’s come via ground-and-pound as well. His two losses came to Abdul-Malik and Dylan Budka, which are two UFC level opponents. His first layer of wrestling offense isn’t the best, but he is able to chain together attacks well and looks to instantly threaten people with submissions when down there.
I do have my questions about his physicality, but he transitions to the back well and you can see by his last performance that he has a variety of submissions in his arsenal.
Striking wise, I haven’t seen the most from him. He does have decent strikes from range but they are all a means to get in close and scramble with opponents. He looks a bit awkward with the striking defense but no one has had the skill to take advantage of him on the feet, so his defensive striking skills are still yet to be decided.
Overall, Schultz is a solid grappler with good back takes and submission offense but I want to see more in the striking and more proven cardio before trusting him at too high of a clip.
Damian Pinas makes his UFC debut this weekend after a devastating KO win in his Dana White’s Contender Series matchup last September. That now puts the 23 year old at a record of 8-1, but someone who has yet to truly lose as his sole loss came via an illegal kick back in March of 2024.
He made his pro debut back in 2022 and has been fairly active, accruing a 100% finish rate with 88% of those coming by KO, with six first round finishes and a fight never hitting the third round.
Although it is fairly easy to make jokes about Pinas’ name, I wouldn’t recommend doing it to his face. This guy is a scary dude with raw athleticism, great power and a solid frame for the division. The issue is, I think that although he has the power to knock your lights out, he is extremely raw. Yes, I said it. This is one raw Pinas. His wins have come against pretty low level of competition and I still have my questions about his cardio and ground game.
On multiple occasions on the regional scene, he was taken down early, worked his way up to the feet and found a knockout shortly after. That tells me that he is able to be taken down, but also that he does have the competence to work his way back up, albeit against lesser competition.
Additionally, since he is typically the one going forward and landing finishes, I have yet to see him really struggle and fight through adversity. So yes, Pinas is powerful and capable of getting an early finish on the feet. His physicality helps with being tough in the clinch and I think as long as he is able to keep this upright, he has the ability to put your lights out. But we saw him taken down by lesser opponents on the regional scene and I think if those calibre of fighters are taking you down, I worry how you will fare against UFC level competition.
So although I think Pinas has the power and build to cause problems on the feet early or even develop into a pretty well-rounded fighter, I struggle to have too much faith in his ground game and would like to see him scramble more, prove his cardio and fight through adversity before trusting him at too high of a clip.
I do think that on this card full of chalk and heavy favourites, this is one where the underdog has some merit. Although I’m going to pick Pinas due to physicality and upside, the guy is truly very raw. We see him taken down against lesser competition and Schultz is going to have a clear grappling edge and will utilize it early. But I’m not a fan of Schultz’ awkward striking and falling into the clinch, and I think Pinas has the power to counter and hurt him here.
So this fight is close. I think it could come down to a true striking vs grappler matchup, with Pinas wanting to keep this upright and Schultz having upside on the ground. But I can’t trust in Schultz maintaining position for extended periods of time nor having the physicality to have sustained wrestling success against a big, young and hopefully improving Pinas.
Most likely scenario involves Schultz going for broke early, having some grappling success before slowing down, being sloppy on the feet and being caught by a bigger and more powerful striker in Pinas. So I’ll take the “Baby Yaga” here in Pinas, but think the clear grappling equity and line value is on the underdog here in Schultz. Fun fight.
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On DraftKings, I’ll just say it from the jump, Schultz is going to be my most owned underdog and I’m going to pick him to win.
Schultz isn’t some dominant fighter but he is a very experienced collegiate wrestler, and his only two losses have come against good, UFC level wrestlers. I mean, he even took Abdul-Malik down twice..
On the feet he’s funky with his kicks and lacks defense, but he’s OK. Pinas is so inexperienced and a pretty awful wrestler from my point of view. He’s only been training MMA for a few years and it shows. He’s got raw athleticism for sure but I can’t believe he’s priced up this high.
The most likely outcome in my mind is Schultz gets the fight down to the mat early, and I’m not sure Pinas gets up. He looks to have very little idea of what to do on his back, and he can’t scramble. Schultz could absolutely run through him on the mat.
At 7.4k on this kind of slate, I really have no choice. Schultz has a style that will score very well on DK and if he wins, it’s probably an early finish anyways as he’s +285 to win ITD. Even a decision would score well though.
There is no floor on this type of play, and I still consider it low level. He could easily get TKOd at some point. I wouldn’t like Schultz against good competition or good wrestlers. Pinas’ wrestling sucks so if there’s a time to try something on him as a big dog, it’s here. I like being overweight to the field.
Pinas is priced at 8.8k and is an OK option.
The reason I think he’s only an OK option and not a great option, is because I think there’s a legit chance he scores like 5 points or less in round one. Some of his KOs are getting easily taken down and held down, and then later scoring a TKO against the fence as his opponent grapples. That’s an 80-90 point score, not a 120 point score.
However, he’s -200 to win ITD and basically only wins early and by knockout. Schultz striking is questionable and he could get caught early. An early KO or a TKO via ground-and-pound is possible.
At 8.8k on this type of slate, Pinas is going to fit in very well. He’s a very easy upside target and probably will be chalky. I don’t mind just being in on this fight, in on both sides and therefore playing Pinas moderately.
My gut feeling is that Pinas is being overvalued here both in betting markets and fantasy markets due to the style of the matchup. I’m a little concerned the fight extends for him even in a win and he won’t reach his ceiling. On paper it’s a spot I’d like to be underweight. However, I don’t want to stake my entire night on it and at this price, it’s still a reasonable strategy to end up with moderate exposure.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Schultz by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Sofia Montenegro
Fight Odds: Kareckaite -268, Montenegro +223
Odds to end ITD: +240
DraftKings Salaries: Kareckaite 9.1k, Montenegro 7.1k
Weight Class: 125
I’m expecting a decent action fight here in the women’s flyweight division between Ernesta Kareckaite and Sofia Montenegro.
It will be the UFC debut for Montenegro, who is 6-2 professionally at age 26. She fights out of Argentina but has been training at the UFC PI in Mexico, which she credits as helping her take the next step in her game.
She comes from an athletic background and I consider her a well-rounded athlete, and capable of winning fights at the UFC level. She’s earned three wins by knockout and one by submission.
Essentially, I view Montenegro as an athletic kickboxer. She throws with decent power, and she’s willing to trade. She can do some damage. She has the makings of a fighter who can win rounds on the feet.
I can’t exactly put my finger on it, but something about Montenegro’s style is limiting as well. She seems to take a decent amount of damage herself. I don’t know if it’s simply because she’s hittable, or maybe slow with her head movement, but she’s not necessarily running away with rounds.
On DWCS, Montenegro was kind of dominating the early portion of the fight, and nearly scored a knockout in the second round. At the end of the three rounds though, she had been outlanded 77-45 at distance, and she lost a split decision.
In her other pro loss, Montenegro was knocked dead in 10 seconds in 2022. That was long enough ago where I don’t put too much stock into it, but I have some chin concerns.
Essentially, I like some of what I see from Montenegro on the feet. She will get in there and scrap, and when she’s backing you up and throwing volume, she’s dangerous. She will very likely be in competitive striking rounds though and so I view her more as the type to be in tight decisions with a lot of girls, rather than clearly dominating or being dominated.
Montenegro can also wrestle a little bit. She is willing to shoot takedowns which I love. I’ve seen fights where she’s struggled a bit on the feet, but shot takedowns and gotten on top, where she’s won. I don’t view her as an elite submission grappler but she has some ability to advance position and take the back.
I haven’t seen a lot of her defensive wrestling so it’s a question mark for me. It’s probably not great but maybe competent.
The additional wrestling will be necessary for Montenegro to cement rounds in matchups. The more she can mix them in, the more I will like her. She’s not a bad prospect ultimately for 26 years old and should be in fun fights, but she may still be firmly capped in her ceiling.
This is a tough debut test against Ernesta Kareckaite who is 6-1-1 professionally, fighting out of Lithuania at age 27 with a couple of knockouts on her record.
She was a swimmer as a youth and looks to be a strong athlete as well, but I don’t think she has any legitimate pedigree as far as martial arts go.
Kareckaite excels on the feet, and I think the combination of her athleticism, volume and cardio will give her a chance to win rounds in this division.
She is freaking huge too – Kareckaite is 5’9” and she’ll be a few inches taller than most opponents, with a decent reach as well. This type of build and athletic base will provide some level of threat.
Kareckaite mostly fought poor competition on the regionals prior to her DWCS fight, and her results were mediocre. She fought a Judo girl twice by the name of Laetitia Blott, and escaped with one draw and one split decision win.
Blott would take her down a bunch of times but Kareckaite was able to neutralize some of it, and she scrambled to take Blott’s back on a few different occasions.
On DWCS, Kareckaite fought Carli Judice and they just came out swinging for three rounds, and the totals were pretty nuts. Kareckaite landed 180 significant strikes and absorbed 168 in return.
That type of performance further suggests to me that Kareckaite has legit cardio and pacing. The majority of her fights go the distance, and with that kind of volume (and background in a sport like swimming), I think cardio may be one of her best attributes.
Since then, we’ve seen her pick up a loss and a win against Dione Barbosa and Nicolle Caliari respectively. Barbosa was able to ground her early in the fight and slowed down pretty dramatically where Kareckaite nearly took over and won.
Against Caliari, Kareckaite outlanded her 87-63 at distance but gave up a few takedowns, and only won a split.
I think Kareckaite’s range skills and aggression give her a legit floor in striking exchanges, but she still hasn’t been able to run away with rounds easily.
She doesn’t have incredible power. She has a couple of KO wins on her resume but those came very early in her career against weak competition. At least one came on the ground too.
The mat has been somewhat of a weakness for Kareckaite but it’s not a severe one. Her first-level takedown defense, in combination with her athletic build, has been OK. But ultimately she has been taken down several times and I feel a good wrestler would be able to get on top of her.
I’ve seen Kareckaite transition to the back several times, which tells me she has a decent understanding of submission grappling. Her lengthy limbs help her in this regard. But I don’t see an incredible threat in any position and I feel like at best, her submission grappling will only be good enough to neutralize opponents.
I think ultimately these two match up very well and we could have an exciting fight.
Kareckaite will be three inches taller with a four inch reach advantage, and based on her volume, I think she has a decent floor in her ability to land distance strikes. The most likely outcome here is that these two stand and trade, and Kareckaite is able to land a little bit more often throughout the contest, which should lead to a decision win.
I do think Montenegro profiles as a more dangerous striker than her recent opponents though. Primarily, Kareckaite was able to easily back Caliari up where I don’t think she’ll do that against Montenegro. It should be Montenegro wanting to play the role of the aggressor where she can land power shots.
Due to that dynamic, I think it’s very possible Montenegro just lands the bigger shots and is able to steal rounds. I think a striking based decision win is very possible for Montenegro as well.
Additionally, both sides have mild wrestling equity but I’d lean toward Montenegro as the one being willing to shoot. I kind of doubt she can take Kareckaite down often or do much with it, but 1-2 takedowns and a couple of minutes of top control is possible. It could help swing a round.
Montenegro will also be the home crowd favorite more likely, although it doesn’t matter a ton for judging, maybe the crowd pop helps her as she lands big shots.
Ultimately I lean very slightly toward Kareckaite here because she projects to land more strikes, but I do think Montenegro has more power and my best guess is we see a very competitive fight one way or the other.
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On DraftKings, I’m much more interested in Montenegro as a dog than I am in Karecakite as a favorite.
In some ways though, this still isn’t a great fantasy matchup. It is -300 to go the distance with little wrestling projection, so if we get 100 strikes landed in a win on either side, the winner might only achieve 70 DraftKings points.
Kareckaite is priced at 9.1k and it’s ultimately why I won’t be rostering her often or at all this week. She scored 77 in her lone UFC win, and she would have scored 86 had she beaten Barbosa.
What you want and what you need, is a quick knockout, or what we got from Kareckaite in her DWCS fight against Judice. She landed 184 sig. strikes there and would have scored 115 DK points there.
Look, anything is possible, and I do think this could be a high paced affair. But that’s an outlier type of result and not something I can project. If she only lands 140 sig. strikes, which is still a ton, that’s 86 DK points. It’s hard to bet on crazy outliers.
Kareckaite is also +350 to win ITD so there’s not a lot of finishing equity on paper. Montenegro has been KOd but it’s just hard to bet on.
I think there are ways for Kareckaite to score well but with a limited portfolio, there’s just no way I can prioritize her. Mix her in as a low-end, contrarian option in large fields if you have room for it but there’s plenty of other favorites I like much more.
Montenegro is priced at 7.1k and is a decent floor target. We’ve seen Kareckaite allow 75 DK points to an opponent already, when she beat Carli Judice. She also allowed 52 DK points to Caliari.
My main hesitations here are that Montenegro only landed 64 strikes in her DWCS fight. So we might just get 60 strikes or something in a loss, and she might score 24 DK points. She can easily bust.
I do like the potential for pacing here though which means in a win, I expect a lot of exchanges. Wrestling could be a factor too. And we might get losers on the optimal lineup so if Montenegro does score 40-50 DK points, maybe that puts her in contention.
The fact that I actually think she has a shot to win here means I’m going to play her more than some other dogs. I’ll take any kind of win I can get. I don’t think we’ll see an insane ceiling with a +550 ITD line, and although she’s only a low-end target by default, I like Montenegro a bit this week given her style and the matchup.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kareckaite by Decision (Confidence=Low)