UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 (2/24/24)
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Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval
Fight Odds: Moreno -295, Royval +240
Odds to Finish: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Moreno 8.8k, Royval 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
One of Mexico’s national MMA stars, Brandon Moreno will get a chance to headline UFC Mexico City against a familiar opponent in action-fighter Brandon Royval.
Moreno and Royval last met in 2020, in the matchup prior to Moreno starting his six-fight champion run. Moreno won that fight by first round TKO, though Royval did hurt his arm in the final sequence and couldn’t fully defend.
The first round was spent with some competitive striking exchanges, but Moreno seemed to have a clear edge on the ground. He landed a couple of takedowns, and took Royval’s back, pounding him out to eventually get the stoppage.
Since that time, Moreno won and lost his flyweight championship, and then he won it and lost it for a second time. Alexandre Pantoja finally took the belt back in July with a competitive decision win.
Brandon Royval has since fought and lost to Alexandre Pantoja twice, including his most recent opportunity which was for the flyweight championship. He won a few fights between those two losses, which included a couple of nice first-round stoppages.
Unfortunately, this division is still a bit thin at the top which is why we have this rotation of the same guys competing against one another.
Any of them can beat any of them on any given night.
However, I think it’s pretty clear that Moreno is a step ahead of Rovyal from a skills perspective.
Especially on the ground, Moreno is a good wrestler, averaging 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s a very good submission grappler too, with back-taking ability. He even won his first championship with a RNC win against Deiveson Figueiredo.
And Royval just isn’t a great defensive wrestler. He was taken down twice and controlled for three minutes in the first round last time he fought Moreno. It’s possible that he’s improved since that time, but Royval just gave up eight takedowns and 16 minutes of control to Pantoja, and carries a career 40 percent takedown defense..
It’s not just the statistics too. Watching Royval defend, he just doesn’t have the technique or athleticism necessary. He falls over far too easily. I really don’t see why Moreno wouldn’t be able to get him down several times, and control him on the mat.
On the feet, Royval is much more live. He’s always been a pace based fighter and tends to break his opponents. The technique is still not fully there but he’s long, and throws a lot of volume.
He actually outlanded Pantoja 91 to 74 at distance, and simply being able to survive and extend the fight will give Royval an opportunity to create some havoc and force Moreno mistakes.
But, his defense isn’t great there either. Royval defends strikes at 45 percent historically which isn’t great, and Pantoja did rock him at one point. Moreno also outlanded Pantoja at distance 128 to 104, and has better striking defense at 56 percent.
Even on the feet, I favor Moreno. I just think he’s more technical, and probably the more damaging guy too.
His issue has always been that he’s tough and will strike in combination longer than necessary, which has gotten him hurt several times in the past. I don’t consider Moreno the type of fighter who will completely optimize his game for a whole fight.
Especially in front of a home Mexican crowd, in the main event. I could definitely see Moreno just going to war at times, and wanting a knockout. It’s possible that in these situations, he could get hurt, or make a mistake that changes the momentum of the fight.
Outside of that, it’s just tough for me to give Royval many paths to victory. Moreno is not the type who will break due to pace, and he’s gone the five-round distance several times against more dangerous guys than Royval.
If he chooses not to wrestle, that would be a shame but I think Moreno has domination upside there. I think he his wrestling control, and submission upside could be a legitimate factor in every round, and it could lead to finish or a very clean submission.
Royval isn’t dominant enough anywhere to fully take over this fight unless Moreno is hurt or gassed out. He has opportunistic submission ability but I don’t trust him to beat Moreno in scrambles. He has knockout ability but it’s a tough task to put Moreno completely out.
There’s always a shot in MMA and as long as Rovyal survives, he’ll be live to win. But I expect him to be controlled for the majority of minutes here and probably edged out in distance exchanges as well.
On DraftKings, this should be a great fight given the pace and potential for ground exchanges.
Moreno is priced up to 8.8k and he’s one of my favorite options on this slate. The issues with him could come in the sense that he’s not extremely likely to win ITD at +135. It still shows legitimate finishing equity, but it’s far from a guarantee.
Because of that, there is always risk in the fight play out on the feet for an extended period, and missing out on wrestling exchanges, which would severely dampen the floor and ceiling of Moreno and Royval.
Even if Moreno were to land 140 sig. strikes, that would only yield a DK score of 86 points in a decision. It’s a decent performance, but likely not optimal at 8.8k.
I am really counting on, and hoping for wrestling exchanges though, which could give Moreno a monster score. Outside of his 95 sig. strikes, Pantoja landed eight takedowns with nearly 16 minutes of control, which is almost like another 70 DK points.
I don’t think Moreno will land eight takedowns, but 3-4 could help boost his score dramatically, and I do think that will be fairly easy to achieve over 25 minutes.
So I’m not even dying to see an early finish here, as Moreno might have a better ceiling over the distance. It would present more risk for him to lose obviously, but I think Moreno has one of the better scoring matchups on this slate and I consider him a great DK target this week because of it.
He will likely be quite popular though, which is always the downside. His price of 8.8k is pretty affordable too and we don’t have an elite top range this week. I will still use lots of Moreno and aim to be unique elsewhere.
Royval at 7.4k is a great play, if he wins. I don’t think he has a great chance to do that though, as a +225 underdog. I would probably expect it to come in the form of a finish, in which he is +275 to win ITD.
That finishing prop isn’t too bad and obviously for five-round upside, Royval can still be targeted as a secondary play.
He even scored 90 points in his last five round LOSS to Pantoja, which makes me a little nervous.
We don’t have many competitively lined fights this week, which gives a bit more credence to the whole bottom range losing. It also gives a bit more credence to a fight stack. If Royval were to score 90 points in a loss at 7.4k, I do think he would be competitive for the optimal lineup.
It’s tough though because I hate stacking in tournaments as it really hurts your upside. Also, I don’t think the most realistic outcome in a loss is 90 points. It’s far less, and there are many occurrences in which he could get submitted and score less than 20.
So I still think spreading out exposure in the bottom range makes sense, as does avoiding the fight stack on the majority of teams. I may consider the stack in a very small percent of lineups this week as compared to the zero percent I always have, but it’s still not a great strategy.
Overall, this should be a high-paced fight with lots of exchanges, and the winner should score well, giving them a real shot at an optimal score. I especially like Moreno for his wrestling and control upside in this matchup, and Royval is a standard five-round underdog who carries a decent floor and some finishing upset.
Fight Prediction: Moreno by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -153, Ortega +132
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.5k, Ortega 7.7k
Weight Class: 145
We have a second five-round matchup this weekend between Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega, who will look to settle the score from their previous main event, which ended with an Ortega injury late in the first round.
That fight was very competitive for the first few minutes, though I would say Rodriguez was getting the better of the distance exchanges. Ortega was attempting to close the distance, and he tried a few takedowns from the clinch, failing on most of them.
Eventually, he did get Rodriguez down, but Rodriguez immediately threw up an armbar submission. In the initial defense, Ortega dislocated his shoulder and the fight was stopped.
Before I hear anyone say that Rodriguez “actually submitted” Ortega, I need to shut that claim down straight away. There was no extension of the arm, and the armbar attempt was barely even locked in. Ortega did yank his arm out of the grip but he barely strained while doing so, and his shoulder just popped out.
Since that fight, Rodriguez went on to defeat Josh Emmett by submission, and then he got destroyed by Alexander Volkanovski in a championship attempt. Ortega has not fought since.
It does make the analysis difficult because prior to their first matchup, Ortega was a -165 favorite and I thought he had a decent chance to win prior to the bout.
Ortega is a super dangerous submission grappler, and you don’t want this guy on top of you or attacking for a choke sequence. He very nearly submitted Volkanovski to earn the title in 2021.
The problem for him has always been that he hasn’t been able to actually get the fight to the ground. Throughout Ortega’s first seven UFC fights, Ortega only landed one takedown in total.
He’s improved upon that in recent fights though, which I love to see. He now has landed 2, 3 and 2 takedowns in his last three fights. It’s at least a sign of potential moving forward. And he was credited with five takedown attempts and one successful takedown in the first round against Rodriguez.
On the feet, Ortega is a capable boxer but his defense has always been suspect. He’s landing 4.19 sig. strikes per minute and absorbing 6.66 per minute, with a 49 percent defense. Those are pretty awful metrics, though they are definitely skewed to a degree by allowing more than 500 strikes to Holloway and Volkanovski alone.
Still, point being, Ortega has gotten hit a lot and his overall striking defense isn’t elite. He is improving offensively and can dish out punishment, but he’ll still likely be in competitive fights on the feet without major damage.
You can see even in the initial exchanges against Rodriguez, that he’s going to get popped at distance.
Rodriguez is much more of a kicking based fighter, which should make the matchup interesting. He will want to keep that kicking range and land at distance where his opponents cannot return fire easily.
It’s a style that has led to success. His numbers are decent, landing 4.63 sig. strikes per minute, absorbing 4.07 per minute in return with a 51 percent defensive rate. I’d say he’s just a bit less impactful with his strikes, and doesn’t carry much KO power.
I certainly think he has more volume upside than Ortega, just being able to spam kicks from distance. The problem is he is much less effective in the pocket, and he also has to worry about the grappling from Ortega.
Rodriguez has a submission grappling background too and despite the way the first fight ended, I’m pretty worried about him in this matchup if Ortega gets on top of him. Holloway took Rodriguez down three times, and mounted him, jumped on a tight guillotine choke. Holloway put him in a few dangerous positions, and Holloway rarely ever has that much success. Volkanovski just took him down seven times too.
If Ortega gets on top of Rodriguez, I do think a submission is possible. He probably advances position to mount or the back. He probably fishes for guillotines or front head lock chokes. It’s not a guaranteed finish but I definitely think Ortega has a significant advantage on the mat.
While this fight plays out on the feet, Rodriguez can definitely compete and potentially has the outright advantage. He is a few inches taller and longer than Ortega which should only help him at distance. Plus, Ortega’s defense is poor enough that Rodriguez should be able to land consistently.
I think it’s quite possible that Rodriguez is just faster than Ortega and kind of runs away while edging out rounds for 25 minutes. If Ortega can’t chase him down, he’ll probably be on the wrong end of the volume spectrum again. If that happens, Rodriguez probably just wins.
I do think Ortega is a decent boxer and the more dangerous puncher though. On the inside, I’d favor Ortega. Rodriguez can still land on him though. I just think Ortega has a bit more knockout upside and more damage potential with his hands.
Plus the grappling upside, which he could finish theoretically at any point, has me considering Ortega as a slight favorite overall.
The issue I guess is that Ortega has not shown enough consistency in his wrestling to be sure he will land takedowns. If he doesn’t, and this is a pure kickboxing fight, I don’t see a reason to be very confident in him winning. It will likely be a competitive scrap, which means lots of variance and randomness, and either side is capable of winning.
I’m also unsure what to make of another long layoff for Ortega, and I don’t fully trust that he’ll be at his best on Saturday night. There’s also been some drama with him and Tracy Cortez, and like, I would feel more confident if I knew Ortega had his head on straight.
I do think it’s fair to consider Rodriguez the favorite but I am also a little hesitant to overreact from the first fight, which I feel the public may be doing.
I mostly expect competitive striking exchanges, perhaps with Rodriguez leading the dance. I am worried he gets himself into more grappling trouble than he bargained for though.
On DraftKings, I am once again reminding you that this is also a five-round fight, and therefore the matchup has as much merit as the main event.
I don’t have a strong preference between Rodriguez and Ortega, though I am expecting Rodriguez to be the more popular fighter at 8.5k.
He’s now the slight favorite, and his box score looks extra good because he was credited with 104 points when he beat Ortega the first time. I think it will just lead the public to wanting to roster him a bit more than Ortega.
My fear though, is that Rodriguez is being overvalued here, and also doesn’t possess an elite style in this matchup to hit a ceiling.
Rodriguez has only landed one takedown in total in his last nine fights, so he’s not a fighter who typically has much wrestling equity.
Though he finished the fight in a grappling exchange the first time, he had already been taken down and was pinned on his back. We’ve seen more recently that his takedown defense and bottom game is still relatively weak.
And this isn’t just some random grappler – Brian Ortega is one of the best submission grapplers in the sport today, arguably, and among the very best in this division. Even if Rodriguez doesn’t get dominated, it’s hard for me to believe he will have tons of success wrestling and grappling here, and I think it’s much more likely that Ortega can have dominant exchanges.
Maybe Rodriguez has knockout upside, but Ortega is tough as hell and didn’t even get knocked out from 290 strikes against Max Holloway. Rodriguez is +160 to win ITD here which is a fine number, but I don’t think a knockout is extremely likely.
The upside I see from Rodriguez is that he’s faster, and can spam volume on Ortega, potentially damaging him over the duration. Ortega eats a ton of strikes, so I think Rodriguez could potentially reach 150+ over 25 minutes. That’s enough to surpass 90 DK points and contend for the optimal score at 8.5k.
Of course, if he gets held down for minutes at a time, that would drastically limit his floor and ceiling. Or if he simply lands 120 sig. strikes, he would bust in a win.
I have mixed feelings, clearly. I am worried about Rodriguez being very popular at 8.5k, and potentially overvalued. I don’t love his lack of power on the feet and grappling upside in this matchup. It does make me want to come in underweight.
However, his floor in a win in a five round matchup is still strong. And he has upside of 100 points, depending on how exchanges play out. There’s some finishing equity. The price is cheap enough.
I am likely not as high on Rodriguez as the public but I still need some exposure to him given the situation and the price. If you are confident in Rodriguez, then you can still consider him a primary play, though pairing him with Moreno will be amongst the most chalky starts to a lineup.
Ortega at 7.7k is arguably my preferred option, and he will be so if he projects to be significantly less owned than Rodriguez.
Despite the public being scared off to some degree, I think Ortega will draw attention too as he’s a big name in a five round fight. Plus, there’s a lack of competitively lined fights, so I’m not sure I see anyone priced below the mid-range who will pull tons of ownership away from Ortega.
This should still be a competitive fight, with lots of striking exchanges, and Ortega has moderate grappling upside as well. I think 2-3 takedowns is a fair projection for Ortega, considering the first fight, the matchup itself, and his recent success wrestling.
He’s also only +180 to win ITD which is pretty comparable to Rodriguez’ number, and a decent one for 7.7k.
I don’t think Ortega has as much striking volume upside as Rodriguez does, but he could still surpass the 120 strike mark over five rounds. Mix in a few takedowns and several minutes of control, and Ortega is likely to top 100 points in a win.
I’d also argue that Ortega has the highest floor of any underdog this week, which makes him appealing in smaller fields as well.
All things considered, Ortega rates out as one of my favorite underdogs on this slate. I wouldn’t say I’m extremely confident in how he’ll look off a layoff, but it’s a decent matchup and he still has a good floor/ceiling combo on DK.
I will likely aim to be near the field or above on Ortega this week, but you’ll still need to be unique elsewhere if you’re pairing him with the main event.
Fight Prediction: Ortega by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado
Fight Odds: Zellhuber -270, Prado +222
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Zellhuber 8.9k, Prado 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I still do not really know what to think of young Mexican prospect Daniel Zellhuber. He looked decent in his most recent fights vs Lando Vannata and Christos Giagos.
However, he kind of laid an egg vs Trey Ogden and was outstruck at range 71-52, which is honestly embarrassing as Ogden isn’t a good striker at all.
Still though, I suppose Zellhuber is still a moderately skilled striker at range and he showed that against Vannatta, Lucas Almeida, and Giagos. He lands 5.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.79.
He is long at 6’1” and has a lot of long range tools like front kicks up the middle and straight punches. I consider him okay as a striker with decent volume and cardio, but I am not completely sold on him honestly. That Ogden fight was bad, and I don’t like that he doesn’t grapple at all. He lands 0.28 takedowns per 15 minutes.
I still think Zellhuber is a bit untested as a defensive wrestler vs anyone decent, but he is defending takedowns at 94 percent which is good.
Zellhuber will be taking on Francisco Prado. Prado is 21 years old and is 12-1 professionally. Most of his wins have come against poor competition. He has finished everyone that he has faced, mostly in the first round.
From what I can tell, Prado looks decently dangerous in the pocket early in fights. He isn’t super skilled on the feet, but he has a come forward style and will look to come out hard. I do think he can realistically knock guys out early at this level which he did against Ottman Azaitar in his last matchup.
Other than that, I don’t think Prado looks all that skilled on the feet though. He just doesn’t look all that technical or defensively sound. He lost his UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey and was outlanded 59-28 in significant strikes and taken down 3 times. He lost that fight quite easily.
If Prado doesn’t get the quick finish on the feet, he actually looks to grapple. He has a decent double leg and can kind of float on top a bit. I don’t think he is super skilled on the mat, but he has a decent understanding of positions and is a young physical kid.
I still don’t really trust Prado at this point other than with quick knockouts and being able to outgrapple very weak grapplers. He just looks too green to me. I do think he has potential though as he is young, physical, and has some basic understanding of striking and grappling.
However, in his one three round regional fight against Mauricio Pare, he just seemed to get tired and fatigued a bit, and he didn’t look great. Then his three round fight against Mullarkey, he didn’t look all that good. I just don’t trust him to be able to put it together in three round fights.
My guess is that Prado is probably early finish or bust here against Zellhuber. Perhaps Prado has improved because he is young and can compete in an extended fight here more than I think. However, he has to show me that first. Zellhuber has shown he can strike in volume and defend takedowns for a hard three rounds. My guess is Prado won’t have much grappling success and will probably get moderately outstruck on the feet.
So I am going to go with Zellhuber here as I don’t like to pick these guys whose win conditions tend to be early finishes.
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On DraftKings, this fight is -130 to end inside the distance, so there’s definitely potential, but I do feel less comfortable with it.
Zellhuber is priced at 8.9k and I think he has some finishing equity. He’s +160 to win ITD which is mediocre.
He’s going to be bigger and a lot longer than Prado, by eight inches, so that’s a real advantage. Prado might just get oustruck, hurt and finished. He hasn’t been knocked out though so I’m unsure if his durability is good.
I suppose Zellhuber has some grappling upside too but it’s tough to rely on as he barely wrestles at all.
Zellhuber is a fine secondary tournament target, but I think you’re chasing an early knockout. I’m not sold on Prado so the play seems fine, but I do worry that Zellhuber won’t grapple and will just kick his way to a decision.
There are other options I like better than Zellhuber but he’s viable and has a decent matchup.
Prado at 7.3k isn’t terribly exciting because I don’t think he’s very good. He’s also coming off a nice KO win so maybe the public plays him more than they should.
However, the downside to Zellhuber is that he really hasn’t made great use of his distance. He already got oustruck by Ogden and Giagos was landing on him early. I think it’s possible Prado could hurt him, I mean this is MMA.
Prado maybe could land takedowns, but I don’t think he’ll have much success, and probably can’t hold Zellhuber down anyways. I at least like the fact that Prado will try to wrestle though.
At 7.3k, with a +310 ITD line, Prado is a mediocre option. It’s not a great matchup for him and I don’t think he’s going to win. There’s some early KO upside I suppose but he feels pretty boom or bust and would be a low-end mix in at best.
Fight Prediction: Zellhuber by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
Fight Odds: Rosas -240, Turcios +200
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Rosas 9k, Turcios 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am looking forward to watching 19-year old Raul Rosas Jr. get back in the cage this weekend against Ricky Turcios.
I don’t mind Rosas Jr. He gets a lot of shit from some people. However, he is young and developing. I don’t think he will be a champion or anything personally. But he is a pretty decent grappler and back taker and he will absolutely wreck below average-grapplers on the mat.
Rosas is basically a pure grappler. He has some decent takedown variety, and he just has a knack for finding the back. He will pop in triangles and hold position, or threaten with a RNC. It is a good process of winning fights.
Rosas lands 3.57 takedowns per 15 minutes. Rosas doesn’t really look to strike much. He just looks to limit engagements and get this grappling going. I like that he actually goes for his takedowns too. He doesn’t fuck around and just goes to his path to victory.
Rosas definitely has some issues though. First, he is a liability on the feet. He just knocked out Terrence Mitchell, but make no mistake, I basically have zero confidence in his striking.
He is going to get wrecked standing at some point again. Second, he is just not super physical and will just fail to throw around seasoned and strong grapplers. I don’t think Rosas is THAT bad with his physicality. I like his physicality more than say Chase Hooper or something. However, he is just a young kid and is still growing and putting real weight on. He needs to fill out his frame.
Rosas also slowed down vs Rodriguez. I don’t give him that much shit for that matchup though. Rodriguez is a pretty good fighter and even gave Jonathan Pearce issues later in their fight. I mean Rosas still had a lot of success against Rodriguez in round 1.
Rodriguez was just a little too much for Rosas later in the fight which is forgivable. I dislike that Rosas only landed 2 significant strikes in that fight. 2 significant strikes landed in 15 minutes is just really bad.
I still think Rosas is going to have some bumps and losses going forward. However, he will feast off low tier grapplers in the UFC.
Rosas will be taking on Ricky Turcios. Turcios’ best asset is his pace. He isn’t super technical as a striker or a grappler really. However, he is very willing to throw offense and has tremendous cardio. So he can make fights ugly and unorthodox and try to outwork his opponents with his cardio and willingness to throw offense.
As a striker, I don’t consider Turcios great or anything. He isn’t very technical. However, he will just brawl and throw himself at his opponents and overwhelm them. It honestly will probably work in the lower tier levels of the UFC. However, he will definitely get outslicked by good strikers as he works his way up.
I do consider Turcios a tough guy too. He is risky with his style and has been knocked out once by UFC veteran Mana Martinez. However, I generally consider him a durable and tough guy.
As a grappler and wrestler, Turcios isn’t that technical. However, he can probably land takedowns against tired opponents. He can end up on his back though and I don’t consider his defensive wrestling good, as he is only defending takedowns at 45 percent.
However, he does work from bottom position with a ton of strike attempts, and guard submissions and scrambles. He is offensive minded which I like.
This is kind of a tough matchup as both guys present problems for one another. I do lean Rosas as he is a strong takedown artist especially early in fights and Turcios only defends takedowns at 45 percent. I am quite certain Rosas can land takedowns easily early in this fight which may just lead to a lot of top control or a back take and submission chance.
I still think Turcios can cause Rosas problems though. Turcios has tremendous cardio and could be at an advantage later in this fight. Turcios could really tire Rosas out. Furthermore, Turcios may just bother Rosas on the mat by not giving up his back, scrambling, and landing annoying strikes. I am just a little worried for Rosas if this fight gets extended as I think Rosas could be put through adversity.
So I am not keen on Rosas’ moneyline as I think he could have issues here. I still like his takedowns and hate Turcios’ tdd so I will go with Rosas, but I am a bit nervous here.
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On DraftKings, this is a fight I am actually pretty interested in on both sides.
I completely agree with Tim’s assessment in that this fight presents issues for both guys. It’s impossible to look past the fact that Turcios doesn’t defend takedowns well though, and it gives Rosas clear grappling upside and win equity.
For that reason, I do like Rosas at 9k. If he wins, it’s certain to come from grappling exchanges. And because Turcios fights at a high pace, I think it’s going to force Rosas to either grab a submission, or land a bunch of takedowns with lots of control.
Essentially, Turcios will put up a fight and that means more exchanges, which means more DraftKings upside.
I’m not extremely confident in Rosas winning or finishing the fight at +135 ITD, but IF he wins, I think his floor/ceiling combo is quite good. The price of 9k isn’t too expensive and he’s among my favorite targets in this range.
Turcios floor is awful at 7.2k because as a +195 dog, the most likely outcome is that he gets held down for long periods of time and simply doesn’t score points.
But Turcios is just going to fight him tooth and nail. He’s coming off a fight in which he earned three reversals from his back, so even there, he’s going to scrap. He also landed more than 100 non-sig. strikes, which is an overlooked aspect of the scoring.
Rosas is still the better wrestler BUT he’s gotten tired before, and he is still a major distance question mark. Turcios almost certainly has the advantage standing over an extended period, and he almost certainly has cardio advantages. He’s also scrappy enough on the ground that he could turn the momentum, or threaten Rosas, or even take him down.
I do think Turcios is live to win for these reasons, and because of his style, I think he has significant upside. He’s won two decisions in the UFC and scored 114 and 120, so we don’t even need a finish at +400.
I’m hoping the public will overlook Turcios to a degree, just because it’s a tough matchup. At 7.2k, I think you need some exposure to him and I wouldn’t mind personally being a bit overweight to the field.
Fight Prediction: Rosas by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes
Fight Odds: Jauregui -589, Hughes +425
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Jauregui 9.5k, Hughes 6.7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After getting flash knocked out by Denise Gomes last July, I am sure Yazmin Jauregui is looking forward to redeeming herself this weekend when she takes on Sam Hughes.
Jauregui has had a lot of hype surrounding her so it was a bit of a shocking loss. However, she just got randomly knocked out and I have generally liked her performances in the UFC other than some suspect durability moments.
Jauregui is best as a volume striker and a boxer. She lands 6.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.87 in return. She is quite skilled as a striker and can fight for a hard 15 minutes with no issue. She also has moderate power and landed a couple of knockdowns against Istela Nunes. She had been dropped early in that fight though, which is a bit concerning, so I will be monitoring her durability going forward.
Jauregui doesn’t seem too interested in wrestling and I have only seen a few takedowns attempted on her. Her TDD looks competent, but honestly I don’t want to assume anything about her grappling yet. That’s an area of her game that I still want to learn more about.
Jauregui will be taking on Sam Hughes. Hughes does at least have a few decent aspects of her game. She is tough, pretty physical, and has good cardio. She will try very hard for 15 minutes and can wear down opponents with her grind and pressure. She has had a good third round several times, and I think her cardio / physicality will always be a weapon against the low tier fighters of this division.
Technically, Hughes isn’t great. She lands 1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a pretty good body lock takedown that is assisted by her physicality. She is decent at holding top position as well.
As a striker, I don’t love Hughes’ game. She lands 3.79 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.23 in return. She defends strikes at 54 percent. She just isn’t a great striker and decent strikers should have their way with Hughes. Hughes has okay inside boxing and can have striking success with pressure. However, her striking success is largely dependent on her opponents being tired. Against fresh opponents, Hughes doesn’t have a ton of success.
Hughes defends takedowns at 57 percent. She can definitely be taken down. However, she generally gets up fairly quickly. For example, she was taken down 5 times against Piera Rodriguez but was only controlled for 1:56.
As far as this matchup goes, I do like Jauregui’s striking game a lot and my guess is she can have her way with Hughes on the feet. I just feel like so much of Hughes’ game is based on cardio and tiring opponents out. Jauregui’s cardio is a strength as well so I just think this is a bad matchup for Hughes in that regard.
I will say though. Hughes is capable of landing takedowns occasionally, and I still think Jauregui is pretty unproven as a defensive grappler. So maybe Hughes can have some grappling success and make this fight a bit closer than the line indicates.
However, I still think Hughes is best at landing takedowns when opponents are tired, and she probably won’t be able to gas Jauregui. Hughes just doesn’t have good takedowns when her opponents are fresh.
So my guess is Jauregui minimizes the grappling enough and wins this on the feet. She may even be able to hurt Hughes with accumulation.
—
On DraftKings, Jauregui is priced up to 9.5k, and it’s quite possible that the public just ignores her on this slate.
She is the heaviest favorite on the card at -589, but she’s coming off a quick KO loss and is only +156 to win ITD. Her last decision win scored 65 points, and with questionable wrestling equity, it does feel like Jauregui will need a knockout to reach a ceiling.
However, I do actually think that knockout is possible. Hughes only spends 57% of her fights at distance, and in that time, she’s getting decisively outstruck. Tecia Torres landed 50 distance strikes on her in less than a round and Pinheiro knocked her down too.
I am just worried that Jauregui is so much better and faster than Hughes at distance. I could see Jauregui dominating and finding a knockout.
Because of that, I think Jauregui is a decent contrarian option and perhaps a sneaky tournament play. It’s still a thin path to the optimal and the price is tough to pay up for, but in terms of pure scoring, I wouldn’t be shocked if Jauregui hit a ceiling here.
At 9.5k, the problem is she NEEDS that smash score. And even then, it might not be enough to be optimal, as there are several heavy favorites priced below her. So you really don’t have to pay up for Jauregui in tournaments this week if you don’t want to.
With a large portfolio, it seems smart to use Jauregui as a contrarian option, or a direct pivot away from Chairez, but she is tough to afford and is likely just a secondary target overall, aided by low public ownership.
Hughes at 6.7k is viable but it doesn’t feel super great to prioritize her this week. I suppose she has some wrestling and knockout equity, but her ITD line is only +1100.
My biggest fear honestly is that Jauregui can’t take a punch. She’s been knocked down twice in a row now. It’s possible Hughes could hurt her too.
It’s also possible Hughes can land takedowns but I just don’t think she can do much with them, and it might be equally likely that Jauregui lands takedowns anyway.
I will hesitantly avoid Hughes this week and bank on Jauregui having an unlucky stretch of knockdowns, and coming back into form on Saturday.
Fight Prediction: Jauregui by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan
Fight Odds: Torres -185, Duncan +158
Odds to Finish: -700
DraftKings Salaries: Torres 8.3k, Duncan 7.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I still have no idea what to think of Manuel Torres as a fighter and I want to see more of him when he takes on Chris Duncan this weekend.
Torres made his UFC debut against Frank Camacho in 2022. He aggressively bullied Camacho on the feet and landed 34 significant strikes and a knockout in round 1. The performance did not show me much, but it at least showed me that Torres is aggressive and can hurt people, especially early.
Torres then fought Nikolas Motta. He actually got tagged easily by Motta a couple of times and was bleeding in the nose and mouth area. It was kind of a bad look for Torres.
Then Torres landed one of the nastiest elbow knockouts in 2023. The fight only took place for 2 minutes. I still can’t read into quick performances like that. All it tells me is Torres is a pretty dangerous guy but my guess is that he has holes in his game, especially in extended fights.
It is tough because before that Camacho fight, there was basically no footage on Torres. And when I say no footage, I mean there was literally less than 10 minutes of tape on this guy that I found. Even if I found more, I don’t know how helpful it would be because all of his fights end so quickly against awful competition.
Torres had a Contender Series fight where not much happened too. He was moderately outstriking his opponent before eye poking and then finishing him. Herb Dean of course dropped the ball and didn’t see the eye poke so it was a very weird sequence and fight. I can’t really infer much from that fight, good or bad.
All I really know about Torres is that he is a Mexican fighter who fights out of the same camp as Brandon Moreno. Torres is 14-2 with 13 first round finishes, fighting absolutely awful competition. Many of his wins have actually come by submission, as have both of his losses. He was even submitted by kneebar in round 1 in one of the fights that I have found.
These are just really tough fighters to trust. His cardio is unknown, and even his skillset is unknown. Generally, these fighters tend to be bad more often than good. However, there are some outliers so it is tough to know.
I honestly don’t even know what this guy’s primary skillset or gameplan is. I am going to guess he will look to strike or just be aggressive early like he was against Camacho and Motta. Whatever happens after that is tough to know. I don’t know anything about his defensive grappling or cardio at this point.
Torres will be taking on Scottish fighter Chris Duncan. Duncan actually put up a pretty good performance in his last fight against Yanal Ashmouz. He outstruck Ashmouz 85-35 at range and also landed 2 takedowns.
I basically consider Duncan a freestyle fighter. He will strike a bit, mixing in punches and kicks that are coupled with forward movement. He lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.74 in return. He also has shown some decent power on the regionals and won by knockout on the Contender Series. I don’t consider him great on the feet. I more so consider him functional.
Duncan can also wrestle a bit. He landed 5 takedowns against Omar Morales which was nice to see that he can mix in different paths to victory. Duncan also seems to have good cardio and can fight for a hard fifteen minutes. I haven’t really seen Duncan have to defensively wrestle though, so that is a bit of an unknown.
I do get a bit concerned with Duncan’s durability. He was knocked out by Borshchev on the Contender Series which is forgivable as Borschev is a dangerous and skilled striker. However, he was also badly hurt by Charlie Campbell and was nearly put unconscious. I just think he can be overwhelmed and hurt at times.
That is why I do think Torres can win this fight. Torres is really aggressive and is definitely a dangerous guy. Him running out there like a meathead and landing a knockout early is definitely possible.
However, I think I am going to go with Duncan here. Duncan has actually proven to me that he can strike in decent volume and grapple for three rounds. He also just has pretty solid cardio.
Torres has never shown that to me. I don’t know for sure, but my guess is that Duncan will be at an advantage if this fight gets extended at all, and I always gravitate towards those fighters.
This is still a guess though because I have no idea how good Torres is or what he will look like in an extended fight, but usually these fighters end up having flaws.
—
On DraftKings, I am guessing this will be a pretty popular fight to target given the -700 line for it to end inside the distance.
And Torres should be the far higher owned option of the two at 8.3k. He’s coming off wins of 105 and 114, and the line is moving in his direction. He’s now a solid value play at -185 to win, with a SUPER strong -155 line to win ITD.
The more I look at this, Torres may end up as one of the highest owned fighters on this entire slate at 8.3k.
I do want exposure to him because he’s a dangerous early finisher, and I’ve seen Duncan hurt multiple times. I don’t particularly love Duncan’s skill set. If Torres wins, it’s quite likely to be an early finish, and at 8.3k, that would give him a good shot at the optimal.
I am now extremely concerned about public ownership here but Torres rates out too well and is an obvious early finisher. He’s a great tournament option because of it and I’d like moderate exposure.
However, how many times have we seen this situation pop up before, and that amazing early finisher looks poor past the first few minutes? The answer is a lot of times. And we usually capitalize on those compared to the field.
I don’t know if Duncan will survive, but it’s possible he looks like the favorite in hindsight in an extended fight. Now we’re also getting potentially extreme leverage on him at 7.9k.
It feels like a spot we can’t pass up.
My fear I guess, is that Duncan isn’t a great producer of offense. I don’t think wrestling is guaranteed, and striking volume is mediocre. A finish would be really nice but I’m not convinced he finishes Torres as he couldn’t even finish a hurt Ashmouz.
But he rates out well with a +200 ITD line. I also think a lot of sharp players and/or content providers will see the leverage potential here, and so it’s possible Duncan also ends up fairly popular.
The upside is just so straightforward with Torres and his metrics are amazing, that he’s still the preferred and easier target of the two. I will definitely be underweight to the field if he projects to be ultra popular but he’s not a guy I’d consider fading, and I won’t be extremely underweight.
Duncan is the tricker side because things may not go super well even if he survives, and/or wins. The ceiling is less of a guarantee.
But the leverage aspect is hard to pass up, as is the spot against an unproven early finisher. I think Duncan is a solid secondary option at 7.9k, and someone you should consider being overweight on if it looks like the public will lean heavily in Torres’ direction.
Fight Prediction: Duncan by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Christian Quinonez vs. Raoni Barcelos
Fight Odds: Barcelos -187, Quinonez +160
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Barcelos 8.6k, Duncan 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Having lost four of his last five fights, Raoni Barcelos is in dire need of a win when he takes on Cristian Quinonez this weekend.
I have generally respected Barcelos’ skill as a fighter. He is a pretty decent striker and has that classic aggressive Brazilian striking style. He lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.03 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. He also has some moderate power and has landed 3 knockdowns in his last 5 fights.
I also respect Barcelos as a grappler. He lands 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a capable submission grappler and submitted Chris Gutierrez a few years back. He is capable of passing and taking the back. Barcelos also has stellar TDD at 90 percent. He has only conceded 2 takedowns in 28 UFC rounds.
The issue with Barcelos at this point is his career trajectory. He is 36 years old which isn’t ancient or anything, but it is on the older side for bantamweight. He is also 9 years older than Quinonez. It just increases the percentage of a decline.
Barcelos will be taking on Cristian Quinonez. Quinonez is 17-4 professionally, and he has generally racked up experience in random promotions like Combate and Brave.
Quinonez fought on the Contender Series and won by decision in a fight that generally played out at range. He was actually outlanded 78-76 in significant strikes. However, he dominated the head strike battle and just landed the more eye-catching shots, and rightfully was awarded the decision. He also knocked down his opponent.
I generally consider Quinonez a striker and more specifically a boxer. I consider his hands adequate but not anything special. He has a good jab and is reasonably accurate with his punches. He keeps a moderate pace. I think he can compete with the lower tier fighters of this promotion, but I honestly doubt he goes far in this division. bantamweight is just too good.
Quinonez knocked out Khalid Tafa in his UFC debut and you saw some of his boxing skill in that fight. He then fought Kyung Ho Kang. He hurt Kang early but then got clipped going for the kill, put on his back, mounted, and submitted.
Him getting hurt so easily was a bit concerning, but I was honestly more concerned with the way he was easily handled on the mat. It makes me think he is vulnerable down there. I am not quite sure if his defensive grappling is bad as I have seen him scramble up before and he was hurt vs Kang, but I am suspicious for sure.
I have seen Quinonez land a takedown here and there. However, I don’t think he is a great offensive wrestler, and he doesn’t really hold top position well. He barely has submission wins in his career. I doubt offensive grappling is a path to victory for him at this level.
As far as this matchup goes, I think either guy could win on the feet. We have seen both of these guys hurt and finished recently. I don’t really trust either of their durability. My guess is that rounds would be competitive with each guy occasionally landing their own shots.
I really think Barcelos has grappling upside here though, and that is why I favor him to win. I haven’t seen a ton of the defensive grappling of Quinonez but this is a big step down for Barcelos.
Barcelos has taken down 8 of his 10 UFC opponents and the only guys he failed to take down were Umar Nurmagomedov and Timur Valiev. I think him landing takedowns and easily obtaining the back vs Quinonez is very possible, and I sort of think it is going to happen. So I am going to go with Barcelos here as he has a reasonable chance to dominate this on the mat.
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On DraftKings, Barcelos is priced at 8.6k and he is my preferred play, though I’d be lying if I said I was super confident in him at this stage of his career.
He’s just getting hurt too easily on the feet, and despite being better than Quinonez technically, I would be worried for him if this fight were to only play out on the feet.
I think Barcelos will wrestle, but it’s not a guarantee.
Still, at 8.6k, he has submission upside based on what we saw from Quinonez against Kang. Quinonez looked like he had zero clue what was happening on the mat and didn’t even defend the choke.
So I have to imagine Barcelos is capable of controlling and/or submitting him as well, though that’s probably the only realistic path for him to put up an optimal score.
There are enough ways for this to go wrong that I think Barcelos is only a secondary option in my mind. But he’s +150 to win ITD with some grappling upside and 8.6k is a decent price to pay, I’m willing to mix in Barcelos.
Quinonez at 7.6k isn’t my favorite play because I don’t think he’s a great talent, and this is a tough matchup.
The only real upside is in relation to Barcelos’ questionable durability. Quinonez will definitely be firing his hands though, and I think if this fight did play out on the feet, I’d want a piece of him.
He’s +195 to win ITD which is good for this price.
It’s hard to have a strong take either way. I’m not predicting a knockout but it’s possible. I wouldn’t want to end up heavy on Quinonez but I’d be fine coming in near the field on exposure with him given the price discount and some striking based upside.
Fight Prediction: Barcelos by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jesus Aguilar vs. Mateus Mendonca
Fight Odds: Mendonca -125, Aguilar +109
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Mendonca 8.4k, Aguilar 7.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jesus Aguilar is a Contender Series alum who will be looking to put together back-to-back wins after KOing Shannon Ross back in July – he’s 1-1 in the UFC and 9-2 as a pro. Mateus Mendonca is a fellow Contender Series alum who’s still in search of his first UFC victory. To note, he’ll be making his 2nd appearance at 125 lbs. as a historic 135er – he’s 0-2 in the UFC and 10-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
A good bulk of Aguilar’s fight time has been spent grappling for or against, so we still don’t have a large sample of him in space. He’s a shorter, stockier 125er who’s kind of all the way out or all the way in.
But he’s not very technical and when he decides to come forward, it’s often unprocessed, winging hooks and overhands.
He will bite the mouthpiece though and throw with intent, but by and large he hasn’t been very dangerous.
He’s obviously coming off a highlight reel KO over Shannon Ross but that was his 1st career KO and we know Ross has no durability at this point.
At space, he’s been lower volume and will look to just pot shot with a straight or low kick.
Defensively, he hasn’t faced much volume back his way and when either he or an opponent closes distance, that’s when the grappling situations begin to occur.
But given some of his reckless tendencies and the fact that he only has a 62” reach, I feel he’s going to struggle standing at the UFC level against better/more effective range strikers.
Mendonca comes out of the Chute Boxe camps in Brazil and it shows in his style.
He works more a forward pressure, kickboxing based game but still isn’t the most technical guy in the world.
We’ve seen it from certain fighters out of these camps where he’s more “loopy” than anything and can overcommit to strikes. But he does dictate the striking on his terms largely and is able to win the standup most of the time.
He obviously had that KO on CS, but I’m not really sold he’s this big “pure” power type of guy – he also closed as a -300 favorite in that fight.
Also, I don’t think he’s a volume machine and looks incredibly available when entering the pocket, or in the few times guys have actually decided to go forward on him.
He’ll go to the clinch as well but isn’t particularly active from there in terms of strikes.
He landed some clean shots on Basharat in his debut but the defense and footwork of Basharat gave Mendonca a difficult time in tracking him down with consistency. Granted, Basharat is a tough debut, but he got out landed 60 to 25 at distance, nonetheless.
Ultimately, he’s one of those pesty Brazilians who needs to be given respect if he can corner opponents but he’s beatable at the same time with more technical and disciplined gameplans.
How it plays out: I don’t really rate the technicality of either guy standing but Mendonca is the more diverse striker of the two in being able to mix kicks and punches better. Once again, both guys have recent brutal KO wins, but I still don’t think either are actually that big of hitters. However, both guys are so defensively void in exchanges and both throw with intent on their shots to where I could see either getting hurt. Mendonca’s probably more reliable to push a striking pace but Aguilar’s probably the more durable of the two.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of the official background of Aguilar but he’s more of a wrestler/grappler.
He’s been able to get the better of the floor exchanges in the majority of his fights but is nothing special as an offensive wrestler – he’s more of a volume type of guy.
BJJ wise, 5 of his 6 submission wins have come via guillotines which is automatically a red flag to me. Instead of truly trying to stuff TDs, he’ll often go to his back with these attempts in which he has found lots of success to his credit.
But he’s also gotten them stuffed before and will end up on bottom – we saw that specifically in his fight with Taira who was just a much better grappler than him – he ultimately succumbed to a top side triangle transition shortly after he lost control of the head. He was also submitted in his 1st pro loss back in 2015 via RNC.
Aguilar has had his back taken in other fights as well but has been able to work out of those positions.
I still don’t think he’s very good on top and will probably struggle to control more competent floor players at a UFC level.
Overall, he’s not completely a “meme” because he does have some wrestling in his back pocket but he isn’t immune to being taken down himself.
Mendonca’s a grappler by base and is a BJJ Black Belt.
I’ve seen him land some TDs against the fence with doubles and trips showing that he is capable, but he doesn’t possess much open mat or chain wrestling at the same time.
Four of his 10 pro wins have come via submission but the majority, if not all have come from his back where he will transition from top to triangles or armbars – I do like his transitions to the back off of TDs though.
He was taken down a handful of times on the Brazilian regionals but did a good job of working back to the feet. However, he struggled with Basharat as the fight progressed when he began to slow down where, Basharat began to accrue higher numbers of top time in those latter rounds.
To his credit, outside of one crucifix position that he got out of, he did do a good job of avoiding compromising positions.
Most recently, his initial shots got stuffed by Maness, so Mendonca resorted to fishing for leg locks but ended up getting pounded out in the 50/50 position as a result.
In the defense of Mendonca getting shut out offensively by Basharat and Maness, both guys are good defensive wrestlers and bigger 135ers (Maness recently dropped down).
Overall, he appears to be competent on the floor but will probably continue to struggle against stronger offensive and defensive wrestlers at the UFC level going forward.
How it plays out: The floor is kind of a mess here where I’m struggling to make heads or tails of it. Mendonca has struggled with physicality at points before, but Aguilar is a smaller flyweight so there’s a realistic chance that Mendonca is going to be the more physical guy. But in terms of what we have to go on weight aside, Aguilar may be the better wrestler, but I think Mendonca has better pure jiu-jitsu and transitional abilities (despite Aguilar having more subs).
Even in saying that Aguilar “may” be the better wrestler, he’s still a guy that puts himself on bottom and gives his back. Mendonca is a guy that could capitalize on that or rack up some minutes himself. My primary concern for Mendonca is cardio though with this fight being at elevation and a fight that projects to have a healthy amount of grappling should nobody go down early. Aguilar should have the better cardio.
This fight’s a complete mess but a fun mess at the same time. My high-level thoughts are that I feel Mendonca’s the better fighter of the two but there are intangible advantages that I feel favor Aguilar in durability and cardio. I’ll reluctantly take Mendonca for the win in a step down in competition but with little confidence.
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On DraftKings, I was burned by Mendonca in his last fight against Maness but I am strongly considering buying back in against Aguilar this weekend.
I just think this is a huge step down in competition from Maness, where Mendoca closed as a -300 favorite..
Maness is HUGE – he’s 5’10” tall with a 72-inch reach. Aguilar is very small – he’s only 5’4” tall with a 62 inch reach. Aguilar also has a zero percent takedown defense rate..
I just think Mendonca will be the more physical party here, and he has a much better chance to land takedowns. He’ll also be more comfortable in striking exchanges. And he might just dominate.
Like Luke, the fears more come in with an extended fight where Aguilar could survive and prove to have better cardio. Also, the manner of Mendonca’s last loss was horrid so I understand being cautious and questioning his fight IQ.
At 8.4k, I am willing to take chances though. Especially if the public is scared off of him, which I think will be the case. Mendonca could be a very sneaky target.
He is +140 to win ITD and has a grappling based skill set which could score well on DK. He still may be boom or bust to a degree but this is a spot I am willing to take a chance on given the price discount, ownership discount and matchup.
Aguilar at 7.8k doesn’t excite me too much but it’s possible he can score well in a win. I just hate his game. No real distance striking and poor wrestling, though he’ll shoot a lot.
I guess a win for Aguilar would either come from takedowns/reversals/control, a guillotine choke, or like a late momentum turn where maybe he pounds Mendonca out or wins a sloppy decision.
Not all methods would score well, but some could. He’s only +225 to win ITD. Maybe the public is more excited to roster him based on his most recent KO win though.
I think using Aguilar as a secondary target is fine, just given the questions in Mendonca’s game, and there’s some wrestling equity here. Aguilar isn’t a guy I want to be on long term though so I’ll be relatively light and potentially underweight.
Fight Prediction: Mendonca by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda
Fight Odds: Chairez -430, Lacerda +330
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Chairez 9.3k, Lacerda 6.9k
Weight Class: 125
The eighth time is the charm as Edgar Chairez and Daniel Lacerda are once again set to square off in the Octagon.
These two fought to a No Contest in September 2023, and then to make matters worse, the fight was canceled very late in the week when the rematch was scheduled.
The UFC is absolutely desperate to make this fight happen which is hilarious because the matchup will likely only last a few minutes.
Lacerda is already 0-4 in the UFC if you exclude that No Contest, and he’s been finished in the first two rounds in all four matchups.
He’s an aggressive, all-action fighter who’s earned all of his 11 wins inside the distance, including five by knockout and six by submission. But the guy has no cardio.
You can see it in any of his matchups. He gets exhausted fairly early and then crumbles.
He did knock down Victor Altamirano before eventually getting finished, and he nearly knocked out CJ Vergara early too. However, Vergara survived and pummeled him in the second round.
It’s a bit of a clash with Edgar Chairez, who has fought to a decision both on DWCS and in his UFC debut, though he lost both of those matchups. Clayton Carpenter took him down a few times on DWCS and Tatsuro Taira outgrappled him as well. Chairez hurt Taira once though.
Chairez is now 10-5 as a pro with four wins by TKO and six by submission, so neither of these guys ever win by decision.
Chairez is mostly a brawler, but he has a decent pace. He’s traded wins and losses on the Mexican regional scene and doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling. His defensive grappling has always been an issue and he’s already lost twice by submission.
It’s quite easy to look into this new matchup and think Lacerda will need to win quickly, or he’s going to get finished again, but I will note that the first No Contest played out interestingly.
It lasted 3 minutes and 47 seconds, and Chairez had outlanded Lacerda 12 to 4, with 10 of those strikes landing to the legs and 0 landing to the head.
Then Lacerda shot for a takedown, and landed it, which is a concern, considering the previous questions about Chairez’ takedown defense. After a short stint on his back, Chairez got back up, and Lacerda shot in for another takedown against the cage.
Chairez locked up a standing guillotine choke, but it was an “arm in” choke, which is tougher to finish. Lacerda was stuck in the position, and looked to be limp, which made the ref step it. He was conscious though, and therefore the fight was ruled a No Contest.
In that fight, Chairez was only -220 to win, and he was priced at 8.7k. He was 31 percent owned on DK, while Lacerda was 35 percent owned at 7.5k.
Now Chairez is -430 to win, and 9.3k, which is interesting to say the least, especially as he was far from winning handedly the first time.
You can make the case that Lacerda has a decent shot, now that we know how the fight could look. Chairez may attack the legs, but he literally landed 0 head strikes in four minutes and was not close to damaging Lacerda.
Lacerda also took him down easily, which is an additional path to victory for him and a path to extend the fight.
However, you can also argue that once again, Lacerda put himself in a position to get finished after a very short while. Though it wasn’t an official submission, it still begs the question as to whether Lacerda can keep up a fight for a full 15 minutes without putting himself into trouble.
Especially now that we are at altitude, it feels quite unlikely that Lacerda possesses the gas tank to fight for a full 15 minutes. In that assessment alone, I feel somewhat comfortable with Chairez.
On DraftKings, I expect Chairez to get a lot of ownership because Jauregui at the top won’t project super well, and Chairez has obvious finishing expectation.
He is -250 to win ITD which is massive and the best line on this entire slate. Clearly the narrative is there for Chairez to win ITD, and that should be the expectation, which gives him a fairly high floor/ceiling combo.
If you’re looking for a reason to be cautious, remember that if Chairez had gotten that first submission win, he would have only scored 95 points. And the fight was looking like it would extend past the first round, while Chairez had scored almost nothing.
So although Chairez rates out well for finishing purposes, I guess I am still not in love with him on DK in comparison to how extremely well he projects based on his metrics, especially at this price and at a heavy ownership.
I feel obligated to play him to some degree, and I think matching the field or having moderate exposure is a fine strategy. But he’s now priced in a range where he NEEDS a smash score, and he’s still not a super talented fighter.
There is absolutely a world in which Chairez wins comfortably, wins ITD, and doesn’t top 110 points. If that’s the case, he’s still not a lock for the optimal.
Again, his finishing equity is so great that he rates out very well and I do expect a finish and a good result. I don’t think you have to force him into all your DraftKings lineups though at 9.3k.
Lacerda at 6.9k is worth a shot in tournaments for pure upside. Despite him looking fine during that first matchup, I don’t particularly have more faith in him this weekend as he still hasn’t proven he can fight for an extended period.
So I wouldn’t fault you for not wanting to play him much this week either. I’ll be curious to see what his ownership is, but it should be far less than the past 35 percent.
He is +365 to win ITD though, which is ok. At 6.9k, he saves a ton of salary and should provide great leverage against a highly owned Chairez. He is mostly a dart throw though, and there are several other underdogs who have more realistic win conditions, who I would probably prefer to target.
Enjoy the action here and let’s cross our fingers we get a winner.
Fight Prediction: Chairez by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Claudio Puelles vs. Fares Ziam
Fight Odds: Ziam -201, Puelles +171
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Ziam 8.7k, Puelles 7.5k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Hopefully Claudio Puelles will spend less time rolling on his back than he did in his last fight, when he takes on the striker Fares Ziam this weekend.
Claudio Puelles really paid for being a one trick pony in his last fight against Dan Hooker. He couldn’t get takedowns or obtain a leg lock and got the absolute shit kicked out of him, and was eventually finished with a body kick. Puelles has fought pretty terrible competition in the UFC and is 5-2 because of it.
Puelles lands 2.41 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 9 takedowns per 15 minutes. I consider him a decent takedown artist. However, he again has fought TERRIBLE competition and I really only trust his wrestling vs poor defensive wrestlers.
In the breakdown before the Hooker fight, I said in the article “I definitely think Puelles is going to fight someone where his wrestling gets easily shut down. He will probably look like an idiot when that happens. Think of Hooper vs Garcia a couple of weeks back. That will happen to Puelles at some point for sure.” Well that is what happened vs Hooker. Puelles just isn’t a great wrestler.
Puelles is decent at floating on top once he lands his takedowns though. I don’t consider him an elite submission threat. However, he is capable and has a few knee bar wins in the UFC. In fact, his only three wins by submission in the UFC have come by knee bar.
Puelles can be taken down himself though. He defends takedowns at 60 percent and can be controlled on his back. He will play guard a bit and look for leg lock / knee bar related sweeps or submissions. It puts him at risk to lose rounds.
I don’t consider Puelles a good striker at all and he is probably one of the worst strikers on the roster. He lands 1.82 significant strikes per 15 minute and absorbs 2.93 in return. He has been outlanded at range in every fight of his UFC career, including by Jordan Leavitt. Puelles can put together some okay straight punches and body kicks. However, striking is just not his thing.
Puelles will be taking on Fares Ziam. I am not the biggest fan of Ziam’s game because he just doesn’t land a ton of offense. He isn’t reliable to wrestle and only lands 0.97 takedowns per 15 minutes. He did at least land three takedowns against Michael Figlak and showed a decent ability to control top position in that fight.
Furthermore, Ziam only lands 2.82 significant strikes per minute and has landed 10, 47, 39, 60, and 61 significant strikes in his five decisions in the UFC. He managed to win four of those fights, but that is just not enough offense to clearly win fights at this level.
Ziam does only absorb 2.01 significant strikes in return and defends strikes at 65 percent though. So he is landing more strikes than he absorbs and is sound defensively. Still, it makes me nervous.
Ziam is best as a kickboxer and although I hate his volume, I do think he is decent technically. He is rangy with his 6’1” frame and can use his kicking game and jab to outslick his opponents. Striking based decisions will be his most likely path to victory at this level. I know I am shitting on the guy but he does at least have a win against Jamie Mullarkey which is a decent victory.
I still worry about Ziam’s volume though, along with his lack of physicality and defensive grappling. He defends takedowns at 75 percent which is decent. However, he has been taken down in several fights and can be exposed vs decent grapplers.
Ziam’s volume probably won’t even matter vs Puelles at least. If this fight stays on the feet, Ziam should be at a clear advantage defensively and technically, and should surely land the more effective strikes. He may honestly knock Puelles out. Ziam is the rightful favorite because of his striking edge alone. Furthermore, Ziam could probably even land takedowns here if he wanted.
Puelles needs to win this fight with a knee bar most likely. I don’t think Puelles has good enough wrestling to take and hold Ziam down for very long periods. Puelles may land a takedown here and there, but his wrestling and top game are just not good enough for me to be confident that he can obtain a control based wrestling decision.
This fight is stupid because we are basically guessing whether or not Ziam can stop a knee bar. It is a very specific skillset where we don’t have a ton of tape on Ziam. Any decent fighter should be able to sprawl and brawl and avoid those positions so I am going to pick Ziam to get it done. I just hate how limited Puelles is and I will pick against a niche path to victory all day.
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On DraftKings, I hate this fight and probably won’t choose to target it much.
Like Tim said, we are largely guessing on whether Ziam can defend kneebars. There’s not enough depth in Puelles’ game to pick him outright, but it’s quite possible he can land 1-2 takedowns, and from there, he’ll just attack Ziam’s legs.
I have been quite low on Ziam in the past for his defensive grappling weaknesses, and so I am quite nervous about him grappling with Puelles. But Puelles is so one-dimensional that at this point, I have more faith in Ziam who is at least consistent and improving.
Ziam is priced at 8.7k and he has definite KO upside, but I don’t think I want to play him.
My fear is that he doesn’t wrestle offensively much and likely won’t chase takedowns against Puelles here. He also doesn’t land much striking volume in general. And Puelles might just be falling to his back and rolling around, which would limit Ziam’s ability to produce offense.
There’s major downside risk here.
Ziam could win by KO though and he’s +195 to win ITD. I would be uncomfortable fading him outright at 8.7k, but I’m just fearful of the upside. Dan Hooker demolished Puelles and still didn’t land 30 strikes in 9+ minutes.
So there are fighters who I feel a bit better about pacing, and finishing upside, and I will prioritize them ahead of Ziam.
Puelles at 7.5k is just another dog who’s worth a look in tournaments. I don’t think he’s very talented and I’m not picking him to win, but a win very likely comes with takedowns, and a submission. Puelles is +250 to win ITD which is good for the price.
It’s such a specific skill set that there’s more room for odds to simply be incorrect, is the problem. Puelles could be a huge favorite in hindsight because Ziam doesn’t train leg lock defense.
I don’t think that’s the actual case, but it’s within the range of outcomes.
So, some exposure at 7.5k in tournaments, with a low public ownership makes sense. He’ll still be a low-end target overall and not a real priority.
Fight Prediction: Ziam by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Denys Bondar
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -118, Bondar +103
Odds to Finish: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Bondar 8.2k, Rodriguez 8k
Weight Class: 125
Luis “Lazyboy” Rodriguez, also known as Ronaldo Rodriguez, will make his UFC debut on Saturday against Denys Bondar.
Rodriguez is 15-2 professionally at age 24, and he’s been fighting on the Mexican regional scene since he was 18. He actually fought and lost on the Contender Series to Jerome Rivera in 2020, when he was just 21.
He’s since rattled off five consecutive wins and is probably deserving of an opportunity. Rodriguez holds seven wins by knockout, four by submission and three by decision, while both his pro losses have come by decision.
I have mixed feelings about Rodriguez because there is little chance he holds a high ceiling of potential in this promotion, but I do think he’s decent and fairly technical. At age 24, we should still be expecting improvements, which I like.
Rodriguez is primarily a boxer and that’s his biggest strength. He has fast hands and can throw in combination well.
The problem is that he’s very low-volume. He tends to walk forward, and then look to counter. The broadcast called him “tight and composed” in a recent fight which is a description I really like, and that’s my expectation of his striking.
However, because he’s not very aggressive, he won’t have an easy time pulling away against opponents at this level. Perhaps he has some KO ability, but this is flyweight so there’s less damage expectation.
Rodriguez has actually been competing at bantamweight and this will be his first drop to flyweight since he lost to Rivera.
I’ve also liked some of what I’ve seen from Rodriguez on the mat. He can land takedowns, but I just don’t think he’s good enough to get them consistently against the flyweight division. I also don’t love his submission grappling and he doesn’t seem like a major threat on the mat.
Defensively, he’s mediocre. He can be taken down. He scrambles pretty well though and can get back up to his feet. But his initial takedown defense isn’t amazing and he can give up his back sometimes to get back up.
Overall, I think Rodriguez is a decent, young fighter with some good boxing technique. He has a path to victory there at least, but I’m skeptical of his volume, and his finishing ability in all areas.
He’ll be taking on Denys Bondar who is desperate for his first UFC win and has had pretty terrible circumstances happen to him in both of his promotional fights.
Bondar broke his arm less than two minutes into his debut against Malcolm Gordon. After more than a year off, he returned against Carlos Hernandez last June and was knocked out via a slam with just a few seconds left in the fight.
Unfortunately, the ref, who was standing right over him, didn’t see he was unconscious. Hernandez then proceeded to land about six devastating elbows from top position before the ref stepped in. It was not a good stoppage, and tough to watch.
Now, I’m sort of unsure where Bondar goes from here. He will almost certainly be cut if he loses to Rodriguez.
Entering the UFC, I thought he was a decent prospect as well with a good grappling base. He’s 19-4 professionally with 13 wins by submission and four TKOs, and a couple of his early wins are unknown.
Mostly, Bondar is a semi-aggressive grappler who was shooting and landing a lot of takedowns on the regional scene. He had a pretty diverse arsenal of takedowns and was able to use them to submit the vast majority of his opponents.
I noted that he lacks a bit of physicality, which could prevent him from reaching a ceiling in the UFC, but technically, he has the tools to win fights at this level.
The other side of the coin is that in striking exchanges, it’s hard to trust Bondar. The best sample we have of his striking came most recently against Hernandez, where he was oustruck 102 to 76 in total and 78 to 68 at distance.
I will say that Hernandez is a pretty decent boxer and has shown to be high volume in previous contests too. I didn’t expect Bondar to beat him in boxing exchanges there, and the bigger issue was potentially that Bondar wasn’t able to hold him down for long periods of time.
Bondar’s boxing looked OK though. It wasn’t awful. He was throwing the jab at times. He was throwing some kicks. He moved relatively well. Landing 76 sig. strikes in three minutes isn’t awful either, for a wrestler.
But Bondar has never been a fighter primed to win decisions and I have some concerns about his cardio. His striking is arguably good enough to survive against average competition but I still want him wrestling and earning control in order to be confident.
This matchup is tough. Bondar is definitely the better wrestler, so I’m inclined to lean toward him winning the fight overall.
He still shot five takedowns against Hernandez and landed two of them. That seems like a fair minimum expectation here over three rounds, with upside of more. He could reasonably just get on top, take the back, and win a couple of rounds. Maybe he has some submission upside too though I don’t think he’ll be a great submission artist at the UFC level.
I don’t think Rodriguez is as good of a scrambler as Hernandez, who always gets up well. But it’s possible that Rodriguez is still good enough in that area to not be held down, in which case, I’m fearful Bondar will get himself into a similar situation standing and lose again.
Also, Rodriguez doesn’t project to be as high volume of a striker as Hernandez. So it’s possible that Bondar can actually compete here at distance, though he’ll be less technical.
I don’t trust Bondar anymore in all honesty, and I think picking Rodriguez to win is totally fine. But Bondar should have a solid wrestling edge, and I’m just not sold Rodriguez’ volume will be there and will be enough to take over. If it is, I would expect him to have more success late if Bondar is tired.
On DraftKings, this is a mid-range fight that I don’t think the public will be extremely excited to target.
I have a hard time imagining the public wanting to back Bondar after his last two TKO losses, even though both came from weird grappling circumstances. Rodriguez has some appeal as a UFC newcomer but hasn’t been an elite finisher on the regional scene.
Bondar, I guess, is my preferred play at 8.2k, and he could be a little bit sneaky. He is a wrestler at base, and he’s likely to wrestle in this matchup. He doesn’t have a decision win on record, so there’s some finishing equity in his style.
I don’t have great expectations, but Bondar landing 3-5 takedowns with a bunch of control, and a submission is a possible outcome. Even if he can’t find a finish at +300 ITD, takedowns and control could still help him exceed value at 8.2k.
I just don’t think people will play him based on his recent losses, and he doesn’t rate out particularly well here. He’s a risk in that sense, and not an outright favorite target of mine.
But I do believe in buying into wrestling expectation on DraftKings. At a lower public ownership and a decent mid-range price, Bondar is a decent secondary target.
Rodriguez at 8k should be dependent on a knockout. He may have a little bit of wrestling equity too but I just don’t think this is a great matchup for him to excel there.
Volume alone won’t get the job done. I do think he has to win by KO.
Based on his +250 ITD line, his chances of the KO aren’t phenomenal and I don’t really want to chase him myself. There’s some more narrative based upside because of the questionable ways Bondar has lost recently, and this is in Mexico, at altitude. I’m not ruling out a weird, gassed out Bondar getting TKOd.
But it’s such a boom or bust spot and style of Rodriguez that I’ll be quite light personally. Mix him in a bit if you want though.
Fight Prediction: Bondar by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Victor Altamirano vs. Felipe dos Santos
Fight Odds: Santos -295, Altamirano +240
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 9.2k, Altamirano 7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Victor Altamirano is a Contender Series alum who’s had an up and down run so far within the UFC – he’s 2-2 in the promotion and 12-3 as a pro. Felipe dos Santos was supposed to be on the Contender Series but after 2 pull outs from his opponents, he ended up making his debut on short notice against Manel Kape where he performed admirably – he’s 7-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Altamirano comes from a taekwondo background where he holds a Black Belt in the discipline and is a longer flyweight with a 70” reach.
He’s shown to be higher volume, landing 5 SLpM at 57% but hasn’t been a historic power threat, with only 2 of his 12 pro wins coming via strikes. But he mixes it up well between punches and kicks and will still throw with intent – he dropped Lacerda with a nicely timed knee to the body a few fights back and landed some pretty big shots in his last couple outings against Salvador and Elliott.
However, Altamirano has struggled defensively, eating 3.99 SApM at 53% and has a bad tendency of leaning or dipping into shots. He has shown to be durable outside of getting dropped early by Lacerda though.
But it’s also fair to say that his cardio is good as he’s gone a hard 25 minutes back on the regionals and has been in some taxing affairs so far in the UFC, where he’s won the third round in 3 of his last 4 extended contests.
Overall, Altamirano’s a respectable striker between his pacing and diversity of attack, but he really struggles to separate himself per minute, and he hasn’t fought the highest level of guys.
Dos Santos is a lankier flyweight out of the Chute Boxe team in Brazil – a camp that has turned some heads in recent years.
He hasn’t always been the most aggressive guy throughout his shorter career, but we’ve definitely seen a higher work rate recently, where dos Santos appears to possess an aggressive style and is really committing to his strikes – jump knees, step in elbows, spinning attacks and blitzing straights.
Most impressively, he threw 310 strikes in his last fight against Kape on shorter notice, where he actually competed with Kape and arguably won a round – the distance strikes were 94-92 but Kape was landing the more meaningful and impactful strikes over the course of the fight.
But it’s in that Chute Boxe style to where he does leave himself available, and he just ate over 100 strikes in his last LFA as well.
We’ve seen him clipped a few times, but he’s shown to be a durable guy to date – backed up by the fact that he took Kape’s best shots, who’s arguably the biggest hitter at flyweight right now.
Overall, he produces fun fights on the feet and does bring a style that can cause issues to certain opponents. But it’s also a beatable style at the same time with the right guy across from him. As noted, he’s not necessarily running away on the numbers in his fights despite doing more, most of the time.
How it plays out: There are some parallels here in the sense that both guys are “take a shot to give a shot” kind of fighters and are durable at the same time. This will be southpaw vs orthodox so I can see Altamirano finding success to the body and legs, but I also think that dos Santos is a better/more fluid boxer. Going back to the point of Altamirano dipping and ducking to offset pressure, I think that could get him in a lot of trouble with dos Santos here with rear high kicks and step in thai knees. The general Xs and Os suggest that Altamirano can compete here on the feet and I feel he can to a degree, but dos Santos’ striking performance against Kape in a loss is still far more meaningful than anything Altamirano has done standing to date.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Altamirano’s a BJJ Black Belt with 4 of his 12 pro wins coming via submission.
He’s shown some TD upside in the UFC, landing 2.12 per 15 minutes but at only 25%.
The wrestling was a key component in his last W over Salvador but as per his numbers, he’s not a very efficient wrestler and doesn’t produce tons of offense on top.
The ground is actually more of a weakness than a strength for Altamirano. His first pro loss came via submission and all 3 of his amateur losses as well.
Additionally, he’s gotten taken down in 8 of his last 9 fights – Brooks controlled him for nearly every minute of the fight prior to Brooks finding a submission, Ocon landed multiple TDs, getting a decent amount of top time forcing a split, McKinney won the first round via wrestling before getting submitted in the 2nd (ref essentially put McKinney in a triangle, weird sequence). Smith landed multiple TDs as well but just didn’t pursue the wrestling enough over the course of the fight and gassed, Candelario took him down 5 times and won in the wrestling, Hernandez got the better of the limited exchanges, Salvador took him down as well and he most recently got grinded out by Elliott.
The main point to hit isn’t just his TDD, it’s more so that his get-up game hasn’t always been the best and as a result, he will drop minutes/rounds on his back and “play jiu-jitsu”.
He has shown a more concerted effort to work up in the UFC which is encouraging though.
Overall, he’s a capable ground fighter with an aggressive guard but he’s going to struggle with volume wrestling and better positional top players at this level.
Dos Santos is a more recently crowned BJJ Purple Belt with 3 submission wins, all within the guard.
He shot some solid double legs back in LFA where he landed 9 total TDs but got less than 2 minutes of control at the same time.
He’s lost position from top on the regionals in multiple fights too, struggling with ground control in certain capacities as well.
Defensively, he hasn’t been very difficult to take down as guys can get to his hips and his aggressive style on the feet additionally leaves him open to reactionary based shots.
He does have an aggressive guard and can force scrambles but he’s also a guy who will concede multiple minutes on bottom at times trying to attack things as well.
Overall, from what we have to go on, dos Santos is a poor offensive and defensive wrestler but has a semi-capable jiu-jitsu game.
How it plays out: On paper, both guys are capable of landing TDs here as I don’t rate the defensive wrestling of either, and both have shown some guard playing tendencies at times. Once again, both have shown generally poor top control components though so both can most likely work up if they really want to. Altamirano is the more credentialled guy on paper but it’s probably scrambly/back and forth on the floor.
This is a fun fight that should deliver. Just like everyone else, I was impressed with dos Santos’ ability to give an honest striking fight to one of the better strikers in the division last time out, which obviously correlates to larger improvements. At the same time, it’s still a bit difficult for me to write off dos Santos’ regional tape because it wasn’t very pretty. He’s having 29-28 types of fights with lower-level fighters within the last couple years. Conversely, you could say the same thing about Altamirano. I suppose I’m more so buying into dos Santos’ overall upside here as a 23-year-old, improving fighter where I don’t see many real strides for Altamirano. So dos Santos will be my pick to win but I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight played more competitively than the betting odds indicate.
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On DraftKings, I’m conflicted because this is one of my favorite pace matchups on the card, but I don’t think either guy has a clear path to the optimal lineup.
Dos Santos is priced up to 9.2k, which likely means he’ll need a smash score to stand out from the group. He’s very aggressive, he can throw volume, land with power, and wrestle, so obviously there are ways for him to reach a big score.
But the volume alone almost doesn’t matter. He just landed 99 sig. strikes and would have only scored 70 DK points if it had been a decision. He attempted five takedowns but landed none of them.
I do think he can land takedowns against Altamirano which impacts his floor and ceiling. He’s only +185 to win ITD though, which isn’t a great number for this price.
It’s hard to prioritize dos Santos in this range because he’s not a very processed guy, and Altamirano is durable. But Altamirano doesn’t have great defense anywhere, and if dos Santos is able to secure a finish, his per minute offense should be great enough to give him a huge total.
I do think having exposure to dos Santos makes sense on this slate and I trust him more than most in this range to produce consistent offense. I’m just not sold on a simple path to a finish, so I’ll likely lean toward the better finishing equity options nearby.
Altamirano at 7k is viable for pacing upside, and he has one of the best floors in this range as well.
I don’t really like Altamirano as a talent and I’m not picking him to win, but dos Santos just doesn’t have defense. He’s been hurt on the regional scene, and he was hurt in his UFC debut. He’s defending strikes at a crazy low 38 percent.
It just wouldn’t be crazy to see Altamirano compete or land impactful strikes. I wish I considered him a more dangerous striker but despite the lack of dos Santos’ defense, I still don’t think Altamirano has a great chance at KO. It’s possible though, at least a knockdown is.
Plus, he might have wrestling equity too. I don’t think he’ll do much with it but he averages more than two takedowns per fight.
It’s very possible Altamirano could land 80-100 strikes, 1-2 takedowns, and end up in a close decision. Perhaps there are better finishing options as he’s only +800 ITD, but I think there’s a decent floor here and the line value is likely on his side as well.
There’s enough darts in this range where I won’t end up heavy on Altamirano, but he’s a reasonable target in smaller fields and/or cash games if you need lots of salary relief.
Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Erik Silva vs. Muhammad Naimov
Fight Odds: Naimov -563, Silva +411
Odds to Finish: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Naimov 9.1k, Silva 7.1k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night kicks off with a clash of featherweights as Erik Silva looks to bounce back against the streaking Muhammad Naimov. Let’s dive in.
Muhammad Naimov has had a solid start to his UFC career. Having gone 2-0 so far with wins over reputable names such as Jamie Mullarkey and Nathanial Wood, he has come through as an underdog already and made a decent name for himself.
He is a primary power puncher with 4 of his wins coming by KO. He has shown a well-versed aspect to his game as well, having 3 wins by SUB and 3 by DEC, showing he does have the tools to fight in any aspect of MMA, although I do think he leaves certain attributes to be desired.
Despite him having a lot of power, he has been outvolumed in every outing so far and is content to wait for that one seminal blow. Additionally, he only has a 41% striking defense on the feet, and although his durability has held up so far, he does lose minutes in the striking exchanges.
On the mat, although he did show the ability to wrestle offensively last time while landing 4 takedowns, I do not think it’s his strong suit. He was taken down 3 times by Anglin, 3 times in a round and a half by Mullarkey and twice by an undersized Wood.
I do think he has the physicality to win certain positions against smaller fighters, but against a higher echelon he will struggle with being taken down. He only has a 57% TDD and I worry for his ability to lose minutes on the feet and the mat.
Aside from this, he has shown that he doesn’t always need to win minutes as his power is enough to finish a fight at any moment. Add in the fact that he trains at elevation, has decent cardio and really solid durability, he is a true power threat for all 15 minutes. Naimov will pressure on the front foot and there are going to be opportunities for him to land that power shot.
Finally I do have to mention that he will do ANYTHING to win, as we saw him complete a few too many fouls last fight, and that may be an issue going forward. At the end of the day, he is a supreme power threat who has shown good cardio and potential takedown upside. I would like to see him improve his volume and defensive wrestling before backing him against a higher echelon of competition, but that power makes up for the lack of striking defense.
Erik Silva makes his second walk to the UFC Octagon on Saturday after a rollercoaster start to his career in the promotion. After an impressive DWCS appearance, his debut was thwarted by UFC vet TJ brown in what was a pretty one-sided affair.
Although he would like to have that one back, it did answer a few questions we had about Silva. Prior, he was just considered an (almost) 37-year-old prospect who looked explosive on the feet and had a solid top game, but we have yet to see his defensive striking or wrestling tested as he fought a pretty low level of competition.
After facing Brown, we are able to see a few more wrinkles in his game. He does still have explosive karate striking but he is more of a one and done striker, and keeps his hands low in the process. This allows him to eat plenty of shots and although he has been historically durable, he was rocked in the Brown fight and at 36 years of age, it isn’t ideal to test that durability in every exchange.
On the mat, I still think he is a very dangerous grappler. He has solid back takes and good positional ground-and-pound. I do think his striking is a means to get it to the mat and he prefers to fight there. But we did see that he is submission over position and puts himself in some dangerous situations while looking for the finish.
This can lead to him ending up on bottom or allow his opponents back to their feet, where I think he is less comfortable. He has had decent durability and cardio as well, but has yet to be really pushed and the first time he fought adversity, was finished in the 3rd round.
I think he is a better moment winner than minute winner and although he has finish upside with solid one shot striking and a dangerous ground game, he lacks minute winning, top control and the defensive striking you’d like to see from someone at this level.
Overall I do think we have two unproven prospects that are tough to trust. Naimov rates out as a poor minute winner but has managed to reel off some solid wins. He may be taking a step in the opposite direction here though against Silva who did not look great in his debut.
Silva regionally was able to dispose of a horrible level of competition with solid one shot power and grappling. At the UFC level, I do think he will struggle if he cannot land the finishing blow. Silva has the ground game to cause issues but with so many fundamental mistakes and going submission over position, I do think he loses control too often, whereas on the feet he is extremely hittable and hard to trust at 36.
Although I would like to see more volume from Naimov, he has shown durability, forward pressure and incredible power, which I think will be huge here against Silva’s poor striking defense. Silva may be able to get an early TD but I don’t trust him to hold control, and every second this is on the feet I fear for Silva’s (wide open) chin. Although it’s hard to trust Naimov at this price tag, he is more proven and I do think he has the tools to get this done. The power is real and it may be all he needs in this spot. Give me Naimov.
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On DraftKings, Naimov is priced up to 9.1k and is in consideration based on his recent performances, and the quality of this matchup.
He’s actually now priced north of -500 on the moneyline, which is crazy to me for a fighter who has so many holes in his game. However, it still does feel likely he’ll have a striking and cardio advantage, and perhaps even a wrestling advantage as well.
Silva most likely needs an early submission, and although I think he could land a takedown, it’s tough to trust he’ll easily turn that into a finish.
At 9.1k, Naimov is -135 to win ITD which is a pretty strong number, and I think he’s a decent option for his finishing upside. I like that he wrestled in his last fight, despite his defensive weaknesses, I do think he could get on top of Silva.
I still don’t expect tons of points per minute, but Naimov seems like the more dangerous party and eventually, that could lead to him damaging Silva and finding a finish. He’s not a stand out play at this price tag, but I feel decent about his floor/ceiling combo in a win and decent about his finishing prospects overall.
I won’t be extremely heavy on Naimov but he’s a solid option in this price range who can score a finish and potentially contend for the optimal.
Silva at 7.1k has some merit…
It sucks having to make the case for all the heavy dogs but like, the one thing Silva can do is grapple a bit. Naimov’s defensive grappling looked pretty awful regionally, and he’s now been taken down five times in his first five UFC rounds.
I would really not be shocked if Silva landed 1-2 takedowns. Is that enough to get him a win? Probably not, but it wouldn’t be that crazy if he put himself in an advantageous position a time or two.
Silva is +515 to win ITD and will project horribly on this slate. I don’t expect the public to play him. He’s still absolutely a dart throw and an untrustworthy fighter but he at least has a semi-realistic path to victory against an opponent who has looked poor on the ground in the past.
I don’t mind a few shares of Silva who will be extremely low owned, for his early ground based upside, though it’s impossible to consider him a priority on this slate.
Fight Prediction: Naimov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)