UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez (4/27/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Timand Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez
Fight Odds: Nicolau -183, Perez +157
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Nicolau 8.7k, Perez 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
With the star-studded UFC 299 and UFC 300 cards in the rearview mirror, the promotion has set up a hangover event this weekend that will feature Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez in the main event.
Nicolau is a contender of sorts in the flyweight division, though he was just knocked out in the first round by Brandon Royval. He was originally scheduled to face Manel Kape but Kape pulled out, and the UFC called upon Perez to step in on a few week’s notice.
Perez recently returned to the organization in March after another lengthy absence, where he lost to Muhammad Mokaev by decision.
Quite frankly, this is a very odd fight to take the place of the main event on any card, and I’m not certain it will be particularly exciting either.
Nicolau mostly thrives as a neutralizer. He lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.14 per minute with an impressive 66 percent defensive rate.
He’s often on the back foot, letting his opponent be the aggressor, and he will look to counter at a pretty low volume. Technically, Nicolau is fine, and he’s defensively sound, but he’s just not the most dynamic offensive threat and that will limit his ceiling in this division.
Similarly as a grappler, Nicolau lands 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends them at 93 percent, which is great. He’s a BJJ black belt but he’s not a major submission threat, and he’s only landed four total takedowns in his last six fights.
At best, Nicolau is the type to edge out rounds on effectiveness, but he’ll rarely pull away dominantly. He does have some power and can occasionally hurt opponents, or take them down, but neither of those outcomes are extremely consistent ones.
Alex Perez is a tougher fighter to analyze because he’s been so inactive in recent years, and he’s been forced to pull out of what seems like a dozen matchups in that span.
I’ve always really liked his skill set though, and at one point I believed he could be champion of this division. He won his contract on DWCS in 2017, and then won six of seven bouts in the UFC, which included multiple knockouts and multiple submissions.
He’s since lost three in a row – but it’s important to note that those losses have come against Deiveson Figueiredo, Alexandre Pantoja and Mokaev – three elite talents.
Figueiredo submitted him early after Perez made a mistake in a wrestling transition, and Pantoja jumped on an early choke as well.
Mokaev ultimately took him down a few times and won based on control and ground strikes, but I thought Perez looked decent. He defended takedowns really well early in the fight, and pressed forward into boxing exchanges. He just ultimately couldn’t keep Mokaev off of him.
Perez overall is a well-rounded fighter though. He comes from a wrestling background and lands 2.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. It’s not always his primary game plan but we’ve seen him land five takedowns in a fight before. He also defends takedowns at 82 percent.
He’s a good submission grappler and his front headlock choke series is his specialty. I worry a little bit about his defense though.
On the feet, Perez is a pretty competent boxer. He lands 4.12 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.14 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. He carries speed and power in his strikes, and he has some knockout upside because of it.
I encourage you to go back and watch his fight against Jose “Shorty” Torres in 2018, where Perez won by first round KO and landed 84 significant strikes… It’s a super fun four minutes of action.
That type of performance is just something Nicolau is not capable of. Nicolau has a career high of 87 sig. strikes landed, but he’s only totaled 36, 64 and 55 significant strikes in his last three decisions.
I am honestly biased toward Perez, and the inconsistency and inactivity in his game certainly makes me nervous. But I do think he can compete well with Nicolau and win this fight.
While the fight takes place on the feet, I see Nicolau letting Perez take the role of the aggressor. Nicolau will want to disengage, slow the fight down, and kick and punch from the outside.
That type of game plan can work, especially as it can minimize the damage Nicolau will absorb. It could also frustrate Perez, or force him to make mistakes as he tries to close the distance.
I do think Perez is the better boxer though, and on the inside, I like his hands better than Nicolau’s. I also like Perez’ power/durability more, and we’ve already seen Nicolau knocked out twice in the first round. I also like his willingness to throw volume more.
Perez has been knocked out once himself, though it came directly after an incidental headbutt from Joseph Benavidez. Still, I suppose it’s possible Nicolau could hurt him.
The other range tool Perez carries is a decent low leg kick. He destroyed Jussier Formiga with them in 2020, landing 15 in the opening minutes which ultimately led to a TKO win.
That type of tool always intrigues me as well and I think it would be useful for Perez to attack with early in the fight.
My best guess is that these two neutralize each other on the ground, at least early. Both are very difficult to take down and hold down. Both are also capable offensively to a degree.
I think Perez might have more wrestling upside of the two, but I don’t expect he can do anything with it unless Nicolau gets tired. Nicolau honestly hasn’t had to defend takedowns from any great wrestlers though, so I’m not fully convinced Perez can’t take him down a couple of times. It’s just hard to project much submission upside from there.
Nicolau may have more upside if he can control top position, but I don’t expect him to do that at a high rate. Perez has made some bad mistakes on the ground before though, so it’s at least a path to victory for Nicolau if he wants to use it. It will be tough to get Perez down often though.
I’m also concerned by both sides if the fight gets extended, which there is a good chance it will. We’ve seen Nicolau slow down before, and Perez has been outside of round one only twice since 2018.
My biggest hangup with the matchup as a whole just revolves around the style of Nicolau. While I think some of his skills are fine, and on paper he has multiple paths to victory, he’s also proven to be limited in all areas. Unless he gets a random early finish, I expect rounds to be very competitive for him, at best.
And for that reason, I think I will take a flier on the underdog Perez. He too has multiple paths to victory too, and has shown better volume and durability.
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On DraftKings, I have mixed feelings about the fight, specifically because I am worried that Nicolau will do everything he can to slow the pace down.
Over five rounds, there’s still obvious potential for upside, but this is not a fight that projects to have as many exchanges as the average main event.
Nicolau is priced at 8.7k, and I lean toward him being a secondary target, rather than a primary one this week.
He is not guaranteed takedowns, and 2-3 over 25 minutes feels like a realistic projection, but there’s a possibility for less. He’s certainly not guaranteed striking volume, and over five rounds, I’d probably project something like 100 strikes landed for him.
That feels like an 80-90 type DK outcome to me, which is simply not enough for 8.7k. And even 100 significant strikes would be a career high for Nicolau, by far.
The other side of the coin is that with five rounds, Nicolau’s floor in a win would be decent. Perhaps he can hold down Perez longer than expected, land some strikes on the ground, and surpass the 90 point mark. It doesn’t take a whole lot for a five-round winner to exceed value.
He also has some finishing equity. Nicolau is +160 to win ITD. He has several knockdowns on his resume and it’s possible he could hurt Perez. He could also theoretically submit him. I wouldn’t rule out those outcomes.
Those would be the outcomes I’d want if I was targeting Nicolau anyways. With an early finish, Nicolau can definitely exceed value at 8.7k.
Historically, Perez just isn’t easy to take down, and he’s not easy to knock out. Considering Nicolau doesn’t attempt offense at a super high rate, I am nervous about playing him heavily at what will likely be a decent public ownership.
Perez at 7.5k is my preferred target because I am much more confident in his willingness to produce offense, and obviously you’re getting a discount on the price.
Perez has some KO upside – we’ve seen Nicolau hurt badly a few times early in fights. I’m less sold on the submission upside but he’s +235 to win ITD overall which is decent.
It’s not the greatest matchup to score because Nicolau defends strikes and takedowns very well, but he can be overpowered at times and in any type of win, I’d expect Perez to compete for the optimal.
It’s totally understandable if you only want to consider Perez a secondary target too though, as he’s still the underdog and is inconsistent at times. He may just lose the fight, and there are plenty of other dogs to choose from.
I certainly consider Perez in the mix though. I’ll have moderate exposure to him personally at 7.5k and as long as he doesn’t get randomly finished early, I am hopeful that he can compete on minutes and potentially pull off the upset.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Perez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov
Fight Odds: Spann -194, Guskov +165
Odds to Finish: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: Spann 8.9k, Guskov 7.3k
Weight Class: 205
Two big boys in Ryan Spann and Bogdan Guskov will throw down on Saturday in a fight that I don’t expect to last very long.
I’ve never been a big fan of Spann, though he’s now a veteran in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. He’s lost four of his past seven fights, and only one of those has made it past the first round.
My biggest problem with Spann is that the majority of his wins have come by submission, despite being a below-average grappler. More specifically, Spann’s primary method of victory has been the guillotine choke, which is a huge red flag to me and not a submission that’s generally tied to a highly processed game.
His numbers in the UFC don’t help him out either. Spann only lands 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 47 percent.
He’s simply not a quality wrestler offensively or defensively, and I don’t really respect his ground game in any capacity. However, he’s been able to jump on a bunch of necks and that will still be a focal point in his game.
As a striker, Spann is very mediocre. He lands 3.42 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.91 per minute with a 45 percent defensive rate.
His volume isn’t great, nor is his defense. He’s been knocked out multiple times and I don’t consider his durability to be very strong.
Spann has a recent KO win over Dominick Reyes, so his ability to trade and find damage himself may be improving. However, it’s just not a predictable element of his game, and with volume and durability concerns, I don’t consider Spann’s striking to be trustworthy.
He’ll now be taking on Bogdan Guskov, who murdered a low level of competition on the regional scene before debuting in the UFC in September. There, he was hurt, knocked down, and submitted early by Volkan Oezdemir.
More recently, Guskov knocked out Zac Pauga in the first round in February, which is really the primary method of victory that I will expect Guskov to have moving forward.
Guskov is 15-3 professionally, with 13 wins by KO and two by submission. He’s never won a decision. The majority of those wins have come in the first round too.
The problem as we’ve seen is that Guskov can be hurt, he can be taken down and outgrappled, and it feels like his path to victory will be too reliant on those early finishes. But he’s a capable boxer with power in his hands, and so in that path, he has potential.
Despite having a terrible ground game on paper, and potentially a weak chin too, I definitely think Guskov can win this fight.
I really don’t respect the striking of Ryan Spann at all. He gets hit more often than he lands strikes, he’s defensively vulnerable, and he can’t take a lot of damage.
Even if Guskov has durability issues too, and question marks outside of round one, I still probably favor him outright in stand-up exchanges. He’s definitely the more technical boxer of the two and I think he’s the more likely party to land big power shots.
Assuming this fight does play out on the feet, it feels pretty likely that someone will get hurt early. Perhaps both could survive and we could see an extended fight, but that would be an awful mess. I’d lean toward Guskov finding the early KO of the two but there will still be a lot of high-variance exchanges.
The main reason to favor Spann at all is based on his grappling upside, which is still minimal in my opinion. He’s never landed more than two takedowns in a fight. He’s actually only landed one takedown in his past six fights combined, so I don’t know how we could be that confident he will wrestle at all.
Even if he does wrestle, Spann doesn’t really win by any other submission than the guillotine choke, which isn’t based from top position. He’s actually been submitted twice in his past five fights too, so overall his submission grappling just isn’t great.
In theory, despite this, Spann should have the advantage on the ground. It would be smart of him to wrestle. If he does, he could theoretically turn it into a finish. It’s just an additional path to victory that Guskov on paper probably doesn’t have.
I still may take a flier on the underdog here, as I think Guskov is the more dangerous striker and that’s where the fight will start. No reason to be super confident either way though.
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On DraftKings, this is going to be a very important fight because it’s currently lined -1000 to end inside the distance.
With that, both sides should rate out extremely well in a vacuum. Spann is priced up to 8.9k and he’s -160 to win ITD, which is one of the best lines on this slate.
He has a reasonable chance to achieve an early finish, which could come from some ground equity as well, and therefore his ceiling in a win feels quite strong. Spann could be prioritized for this reason.
However, I just don’t like his game at all. Spann has a couple of submission finishes on his record that scored 92 and 79 points, because he’s not producing a ton of offense prior to the finish and his submissions don’t always come from takedowns.
The only real ceilings he’s shown have come when he gets first-round KOs. In that outcome, yes, I would want significant exposure to him.
But I do think there’s potential for Spann to win by RD 1 or RD 2 sub and not exceed 100 points which scares me a lot. Plus, he’s 8.9k so even 105 points may not be enough to clearly stand out in this range.
I’m unsure how popular Spann will be as well, coming off back-to-back losses, though he rates out extremely well on this slate. You don’t have to take a major stand but I am expecting him to be popular.
If anything, I think I would aim to be near-field or underweight to Spann. There’s a real chance he loses, and his scoring is too heavily tied to a quick finish. There are just multiple ways for this to go wrong, which scares me.
But on paper, for 8.9k, with real finishing ability, Spann is still a good tournament target and I wouldn’t want to be drastically under the field.
Guskov could be one of the most popular underdogs on the slate at 7.3k. Most of the fighters priced below him are big dogs, and Guskov is coming off a first-round KO win in which he was pretty heavily owned by the public.
Now at 7.3k, with a +175 ITD line, against an opponent who has lost a bunch recently, Guskov feels obvious. And I think he can pull off the win too.
I will probably end up playing Guskov moderately, but I think the public will as well. Potentially, there could even be leverage on Ryan Spann if everyone is excited to punt with Guskov.
I still wouldn’t shy away from exposure with Guskov even if that was the case. He is boom or bust, but he has a clear path to a boom, and is priced very nicely.
On paper this is one of the best fights on the slate to target, and with a smaller portfolio,
I’d aim to have quite a bit of exposure as a whole. I do prefer Guskov given the price discrepancy but it’s possible he’ll end up very chalky on Saturday.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Guskov by KO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -150, Lipski +130
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 8.5k, Lipski 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Karine Silva is a Contender Series alum who’s turned some heads since entering the UFC back in 2022, making quick work of her first three opponents – she’s 3-0 in the UFC and 17-4 as a pro. Ariane Lipski is a girl who’s turned her career around in a big way, as she was on the verge of getting cut at one point but had a really solid 2023 where she rattled off three straight wins – she’s 6-5 in the UFC and 17-8 as a pro.
The striking component:
Our footage on Silva overall is still pretty limited so it’s hard to make any definitive claims.
In the bit we have, she’s shown some good hand speed, a snappy jab and some decent kicks, but she doesn’t really set up much of what she throws.
Like at distance, she went 9 of 38 against Yan and 12 of 63 against Botelho. Given the actual minutes, she’s thrown a lot but hasn’t landed a ton. However, against Botelho, she eventually cracked her with a big overhand right which led to the finish.
But within both of those fights, she was struggling with the pressure of both girls at the same time, and has allowed herself to be backed up.
We only saw a couple minutes standing in the Moroz fight but Moroz did project to be the better striker there on paper, and Silva hurt her relatively quickly in early exchanges. So she’s definitely got some power at the weight class with nine of her 17 pro wins coming via strikes, but it does appear that a bulk of those have come on the ground back regionally.
Just given such limited distance time, it’s hard to say what her true striking caliber is and how she fairs in more extended exchanges, but she is fast and has power by WMMA standards.
Lipski comes from a muay thai background and her main core competency pre-UFC was her aggression, which most girls couldn’t handle.
However, in the UFC, we’ve only seen that “old school” aggression from Lipski in spurts. I’m not sure if it’s a mental thing or if the bright lights on the bigger stage have gotten to her as she’s just underperformed in multiple spots.
Statistically, she lands 4.27 SLpM at 40% but that’s skewed down from wrestling which we’ll get to.
She actually lands 6 distance strikes per minute when her fights are spent range, which is a more accurate number of her being higher output – she’s also a proactive kicker. But she’s also been outpaced in all five of her UFC losses and has only significantly outpaced her opponents three times in her wins.
However, she is technical and has some pop in her punches, with three UFC knockdowns, and she’s coming off hurting O’Neill multiple times.
Defensively, she eats 4.23 sig. strikes per minute at a 52% defensive rate — she does defend at distance at 58% which is a bit better . So her significant strike differential is slightly positive at +0.04/minute and her distance strike differential is slightly positive as well.
She’s a girl who will leave her head on the center line and largely just returns fire.
The main issue in the past is that she’s let her opponents dictate the pace of fights which is NOT what brought her to the dance. It was encouraging against Bohm though, where she did get back to her roots, went forward and landed a high volume of strikes.
Her going life and death with Cachoeira was a really dumb decision though and resulted in her getting KO’d. But she looked excellent in her outing against Aldrich who’s a sound boxer, had a competitive scrap with Gatto and looked good on the feet against O’Neill, so we have seen a higher urgency from her in recent fights which is good to see.
Overall, when Lipski is dialed in and lets her strikes go, she can compete at a bare minimum standing with a large bulk of girls in this division.
How it plays out: We’ve seen Lipski get chinned before and she’s not the best defensive striker, coupled with Silva having power for the division, so that’s what my primary concern for Lipski is. But I have to favor Lipski on the feet overall because she’s just a far more proven commodity in extended striking fights, as she’s won multiple striking based decisions and has power of her own. You can say what you want about JJ Aldrich, but nobody’s ever took it to her standing like Lipski did with the exception of Maycee Barber, who’s currently ranked #4 in the world.
That’s not to say that Silva “can’t” compete if not beat Lipski in a striking fight. There just isn’t enough data to project that to happen. If she does, it would be a great data point to have as an analyst because we’d learn a hell of a lot more about Silva.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Silva is a more recently crowned BJJ brown belt with eight of her 17 pro wins coming via submission. However, we haven’t seen a ton of her wrestling. In what we have, she’s landing her TDs from the body lock with trips or throws.
In unpacking her last six submission wins – she heel hooked a base boxer that was a smoker (no ground game) – got thrown by Rocha and Rocha broke her arm in the guard because she tried to muscle out of an armbar — Yan won the 1st round via wrestling and nullified all guard attempts but Silva jumped a guillotine in the 2nd and got it – she clocked Botelho with an overhand but did pass and forced Botelho to go to turtle to set up her d’arce choke (something that showed some more process) – she took Souza down early, dropped back for a leg lock and got it quickly – most recently, Moroz was able to scramble into top position but Silva re-guarded and guillotined her with one second left of the 1st round.
However, I still think it’s concerning that she was willing to play guard against Yan, she got knee barred without a ton of issues against Mokhnatkina and her last loss came to a judo girl in Barbosa who most likely top timed her (can’t confirm, just an assumption).
Overall, she’s a physical girl for the weight class, appears to be a capable offensive wrestler and has a dangerous/diverse submission game where girls can’t make small mistakes against her because she will capitalize. But similar to the striking, we still don’t have a ton of her in extended grappling sequences, so I still have questions on Silva when she faces more capable defensive wrestlers/grapplers.
This is the component of the game where Lipski has struggled with in the past.
Prior to the Aldrich fight, she only stuffed TDs at 51% and had been taken down at least once in 5/8 UFC fights – also by girls who are not wrestler/grapplers by nature sprinkled in.
Pretty much anytime a girl had committed to TDs against her, they’d gotten them with ease and Lipski wasn’t able to work up.
Calderwood (1/3) 4+ minutes of control time – McCann (2/2) only 44 seconds of control time but both her TDs came at the end of rounds and Lipski didn’t get up — De Padua (2/3) with 4+ minutes of control time – Shevchenko (1/3) with 7+ minutes of control time finishing Lipski on the ground — DLR (2/3) with nearly 7 minutes of control finishing Lipski on the mat.
Outside of rolling for a couple knee bar attempts, she’s getting controlled and severely struggles on bottom.
HOWEVER, it appears there’s been some large strides made in recent years in terms of her TDD. She stuffed all 12 TDAs from Aldrich, all 7 from Gatto and 2 most recently from O’Neill.
So her TDD now sits at 79% in comparison to that 51% just four fights ago. With that being said, we still haven’t seen her on the bottom in that time frame so whether or not her defensive grappling has leveled up along with the wrestling is still a question mark.
Offensively, she hasn’t been a historically willing wrestler (0.64 TDs/15) but has looked good when she has found her way into top positions in the past – she reps a BJJ purple belt as well.
Also, anomalously she’s landed TDs in her last three fights and actually submitted fellow purple belt in Casey O’Neill last time out. That was primarily a product of her hurting O’Neill, but she did land a nice throw in the first round as well and O’Neill projected to have the ground advantage going into that fight, so an impressive performance from Lipski in totality.
Overall, you have to give Lipski her flowers as she’s clearly prioritized leveling up her ground game in the last couple years. But I still have bigger questions about what happens if she’s flattened on the mat when facing better grapplers because it hasn’t gone well in the past.
How it plays out: In all likelihood, this component is “probably” the crux of the fight. Can Silva get Lipski down and what happens if she does? Once again, despite the improved TDD of Lipski, I don’t trust her if she’s grounded in this fight because the girls that have fucked her up on the ground don’t have the jiu jitsu that Silva does. It’s a scenario that in theory, one TD could be the fight. At the same time, to play devil’s advocate against that point, there is a definitely a world where Lipski’s BJJ has leveled up with her wrestling and she’s able to remain safe on bottom or even from top positions – it’s hard for me to ignore the DWCS fight for Silva where the opponent was fine on top of her before the gilly jump in the 2nd round.
This is a super tough fight to call for a handful of reasons. First and objectively, I’ve been very wrong about both girls overall in recent fights as they’ve outperformed my expectations. Secondarily, you have two larger looming questions about Lipski’s defensive grappling and how Silva fairs in a more extended contest should the fight extend.
Both girls in theory, are the kryptonite’s to each other in those capacities. Additionally, both girls are capable of hurting each other on the feet so the fight just reeks of variance. It’s tough to make a pure pick here but I’ll go with Lipski for the slight upset just in the sense of my general process of leaning towards minutes versus moments. Coupled with the fact that Silva “may need” to get this fight to the ground and/or finish early to win where Lipski could just shut her out and should be projected as the favorite should this fight get out the first round. I have suspicions based on a few different things that I’ve seen in Silva tape that she could be a gasser. But Silva also may just be an elite finisher even at the upper tiers of the UFC for women to which she’s then just a cheat code.
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On DraftKings, this is a decent mid-range fight and I look forward to losing money by fading Silva for the third time in a row.
I have some major concerns about Silva’s game, highlighted by Luke’s thorough analysis. She’s still never won a decision in her career and I don’t think she rates out as a great minute winner. But she’s submitted three girls in a row in the first round, so I haven’t been paid off, and her box score looks incredible because of it.
In theory, that trend could very well continue. Silva has never won by any other method than ITD, and if she wins again on Saturday, it could realistically come early. I’ve also been low on Lipski at times because her ground game is weak. So, yeah, I could easily see Silva doing something random and locking up a quick sub.
She’s scored 104, 99 and 123 on DK in her three wins, and she’s +125 to win ITD here. The simple fact that Silva has submission upside, and Lipski has shown weakness there in the past, tells me that Silva is a solid fantasy target for 8.5k.
Granted, she very likely needs an early finish to exceed value. I will not be projecting much total offense, and an extended fight spells disaster for Silva. But her early finishing upside warrants some consideration for sure.
I also expect that type of box score to draw a lot of attention, so I doubt I will be able to match the field.
Especially as Lipski still projects to be the better fighter over an extended period. If she can just avoid an early choke, she probably will be the favorite outright. Silva has been finished a few times herself too.
Lipski is priced at 7.7k and could be a sneaky underdog option. I think there are some other obvious underdogs on the slate, and Lipski doesn’t profile super well, though she carries a decent +255 ITD line.
It’s just that you can’t necessarily count on her wrestling, and striking volume may not be enough to get it done. I’d really be hoping she pushes a higher paced fight in which Silva gets tired, and that leads to a Lipski finish. She could then potentially reach a ceiling like we saw in her last bout, where she put up 104 points.
Mostly, I don’t see the public prioritizing Lipski. There are a couple more obvious cheaper options, and with Silva having never lost in the UFC, Lipski probably will be overlooked to a degree.
I understand why that’s the case – I’m not necessarily recommending to jam her in. She could easily lose the fight.
However, what does a win for Lipski look like? I think it could come with the right pacing, and potentially ITD, which would lead to a strong score for 7.7k. I’ll label her a more sneaky/leverage secondary option which I will have some interest in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lipski by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diaz
Fight Odds: Diniz -255, Lane +211
Odds to Finish: -900
DraftKings Salaries: Diniz 9k, Lane 7.2k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually excited to see the debut of 32-year-old Brazilian heavyweight Jhonata Diniz this weekend. Diniz booked his ticket to the UFC by knocking out Eduardo Neves in the first round on the Contender Series.
Diniz is 6-0 professionally in MMA and has knocked every opponent out in the first round. Although Diniz doesn’t have as much MMA experience as I would like to see, he comes from a kickboxing background. This guy has a lot of experience in kickboxing. He fought in Glory kickboxing in its early days and even took kickboxing legend Rico Verhoeven to a decision when he was 21 years old.
You see the kickboxing in Diniz’s game too. He obviously has some skills, hits hard, and can throw in combination. He has okay speed and can work all levels including the body. He can definitely outstrike guys in the UFC heavyweight division.
When he starts actually landing strikes and gets his timing right, he can pour it on. I also am not as worried about him in extended fights either. I know he hasn’t gone past the first round in MMA, but he has gone to a decision several times in kickboxing and seemed fine.
There are obviously concerns with Diniz though. He doesn’t have a ton of MMA experience, and there are very likely holes in his game. My guess is any decent grappler can probably have success against him. I did see him defend takedowns pretty well in one fight, but it was against a terrible opponent and Diniz just hasn’t been tested on the mat at all yet.
Still though, Diniz may be able to have success in this division considering he is quite developed in one area of the sport. Having just striking can probably carry him to several wins in the UFC heavyweight division.
Diniz will be taking on Austen Lane. Lane was actually in a high-profile contender series fight back in 2018 against Greg Hardy. He was knocked out in round 1 and has essentially been in the regionals fighting low tier competition ever since. He recently won on the Contender Series late in 2022 to punch his ticket to the UFC. He then lost his UFC debut to Justin Tafa, getting knocked out in round one.
Lane is a really big guy and is a good athlete. He is 6’6” and I do consider him somewhat dangerous and capable of knockouts.
Lane will generally look to strike and occasionally finds top position, and it usually results in early finishes for him. His competition has just been HORRENDOUS though. There is not a single quality win on his record other than a knockout against Juan Adams in a fight where he was being outwrestled the entire time. He basically just athletes his way to finishes over lesser athletes.
Lane is just really green and his competition is bad, so it is hard to get a read on him. However, I do tend to think he is knockout capable at this level. He just looks too defensively vulnerable himself though. I think striking in general will be his main path to victory in the UFC.
Lane actually never tired out against Adams and got a finish in round four, so his cardio may honestly be decent which could get him wins in the UFC. I hate that he has only faced two decent strikers in Tafa and Hardy, and both knocked him out so quickly.
Lane sometimes finds top position, and I do consider his ground and pound dangerous. However, he doesn’t look like an actual good wrestler, and he is poor defensively. I have seen him finished on the mat on the regionals and he will definitely lose fights to decent grapplers at this level.
All in all, I just think Lane is a low-tier UFC / high-tier regional heavyweight who can maybe win some fights in the UFC by knockout or by some athletic explosion.
I have to go with Diniz here because he is so much more developed as a striker than Lane. If this plays out on the feet, which it probably will, Diniz is so much more technical than Lane. My guess is Diniz just lands consistently and eventually knocks Lane out. I think this is a somewhat straightforward fight to predict, as Diniz just schooling Lane on the feet seems like the most likely outcome.
This is heavyweight though and Diniz could have horrendous holes in his game. Maybe Lane just lands something big or gets on top of Diniz and beats him up. This is heavyweight so nothing would surprise me. Diniz is the better kickboxer though and Lane doesn’t seem like a good wrestler, so I have to pick Diniz to win.
—
On DraftKings, this could be another pivotal matchup, considering the fight is lined -900 to end inside the distance.
Diniz has a realistic shot at an early KO on paper, given the striking credentials, and the opponent in front of him. He’s aggressive, technical, and willing to throw down.
He’ll be incredibly boom or bust, but he carries a heavy -220 line to win ITD which is the strongest on this slate. If he does earn a first round KO, Diniz should top 100 points and compete for the optimal.
I don’t think that makes him a must-play on this slate though. The top range is filled with big favorites, and there could be several strong scores in wins.
Without wrestling equity, or the ability to rack up lots of points over the duration, Diniz won’t carry the same type of ceiling as some other fighters on the slate. Nor is he safe at all.
Given that he could be a very popular public target, I don’t think it’s crazy to aim to be contrarian in this range, or simply a little bit different. Diniz could win by KO in round one, score 103, and miss the optimal lineup.
However, targeting fighters with early win potential is still a smart tournament strategy, so it’s not a case where I’d be looking to fade Diniz. At 9k, he’s still affordable compared to some other targets, and I expect I’ll end up with moderate exposure to him by default.
Lane at 7.2k should be an interesting leverage target. Unlike the other big-man fight in this range, I see most of the ownership going toward the favorite.
Lane isn’t highly thought of, nor has he looked good in the UFC. And now he’s a sizable underdog against an opponent who should be more technical than him. Lane will rate out fine with a +250 ITD line, but I don’t expect people to be super excited to target him this weekend.
Depending on the size of your portfolio, Lane is a strong underdog target in my opinion.
Yes, he’s more likely to lose than some other fighter in this range, but he should be less owned, and he’ll carry leverage against Diniz. The most realistic paths for Lane to win still come early ITD, which theoretically gives him a high ceiling in a victory.
Striking is just so high-variance that technique isn’t as important as other aspects of the sport. Even if Diniz is technically better, and more experienced, it’s still possible that Lane could land a big early strike. Diniz has been KOd before.
It’s also possible Lane has both a cardio and grappling advantage, although neither may end up mattering.
For 7.2k, with upside, Lane is a worthwhile tournament play. He makes for a strong pivot off Guskov, and potentially a fighter I’d aim to be overweight on if the field doesn’t project to target him heavily.
Ultimately, investing in a matchup that’s 90 percent implied to end inside the distance is smart in tournaments, and although I’ll favor Diniz to get the job done, there’s too much variance in striking exchanges to ignore the underdog.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Diniz by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama
Fight Odds: Pearce -163, Onama +141
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Pearce 8.6k, Onama 7.6k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am always excited to watch Ugandan prospect David Onama fight, and I expect a fun war with him and Jonathan Pearce on Saturday.
On the regional scene, Onama was undefeated at 18-0 (if you include Amateurs) and he pretty much finished everyone in the first or second round. He showed that he was dangerous with his striking and that he was extremely explosive. He hits very hard and can really overwhelm guys with his striking blitzes.
I mostly consider Onama an explosive striker. In the UFC, he has been in a couple of wars. He lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.48 in return. He has shown that he can throw strikes aggressively and hurt guys at this level.
He knocked Gabriel Benitez dead back in 2022. He also knocked out Gabriel Santos in his most recent fight, in a back and forth war. I think he can continue to hurt guys at this level.
There are plenty of concerns with Onama though. First, Onama is still very green as a striker and just in general. He can get hit a lot and he doesn’t strike nearly as well when pressured or going backwards. He is tough though and I consider him to be durable. He will fight through adversity and fight for your money.
Furthermore, Onama gassed BADLY against Landwehr. It was kind of strange as Onama never showed cardio issues before. He beat Landwehr up early and then just got broken by Landwehr’s pace. Maybe Onama got hurt or something to cause him to collapse. I tend to think it was an outlier as his gas tank looked fine against Gabriel Santos. I will monitor his cardio going forward though.
Another concern with Onama is his defensive grappling. He only defends takedowns at 45 percent. Onama’s defensive grappling isn’t terrible and he is very physical, so he is able to escape and reverse positions. However, he can get taken down, controlled, and put in some tough positions. I really do think he is difficult to consistently keep down though as he is just so physical and athletic and capable of exploding. He also looks to be improving his defensive wrestling.
I think the best way to describe Onama’s defensive grappling is a young Jared Cannonier. Obviously, Cannonier is much more polished now. However, like Onama, Cannonier was outgrappled at times early in his career but still wasn’t easy to hold down, based on physicality and a basic understanding of how to explode from certain positions. Onama is similar in my opinion.
Onama will be taking on blue collar wrestler Jonathan Pearce. I like Jonathan Pearce’s game. He has good cardio and can push a pace. He is also a solid wrestler and generally goes to his wrestling, so he optimizes his win condition.
Pearce lands 5.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.35 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent. A lot of Pearce’s strikes landed are on the mat. So I do think his metrics are skewed. I actually don’t think he is very skilled as a striker and he is quite hittable. His striking success will more so come by pushing a pace and tiring out his opponents.
Pearce is best as a grappler. He lands a whopping 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. He just pushes a hard pace and does a good job using his length to manipulate his opponents on the mat. He has a decent top game and can continue to outgrapple UFC competition with volume wrestling and tenacity. I also like his defensive wrestling, and he can turn defensive wrestling and sprawls into top position of his own.
Pearce is also just really big. He stands at 6’0” and uses his length and physicality quite well in grappling situations. I also just like his ground and pound. He is relentless.
I think this is going to be an entertaining fight. I definitely think Pearce can land takedowns here and have moments of top position and success in general. So he is clearly capable of winning minutes and banking rounds.
However, I have much more confidence in Onama’s striking here. Anytime this is playing out on the feet, I favor Onama and I think he has a chance to hurt Pearce. I just really like Onama’s aggression, physicality, and athleticism on the feet. Pearce is also just quite hittable.
I also think Onama is capable of creating stretches of striking as well. Onama is hard to hold down, and I think he is capable of exploding out of grappling positions to escape or reverse position. I think that will create opportunities for Onama to land his strikes and win rounds via damage or finish Pearce.
I still think Pearce can win this fight. He is the betting favorite because he is a good grappler. It is easy to imagine him having success in this fight. However, I also think Onama will have success and judges tend to favor damage these days. So I am going to pick Onama to explode out of positions, land his big strikes, and turn the fight in his favor.
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On DraftKings, this is definitely a fight I have my eye on, and I assume the public will as well.
More specifically on the Pearce side, he’s proven that his style of fighting can lead to big fantasy scores, and he’s the type of fighter who I am willing to take chances on every time he steps into the Octagon.
Coming off a loss, and priced at 8.6k, perhaps the public won’t be as excited to roster him as in past fights. But with wins of 134, 123 and 145 on his resume, for me he’s hard to pass up.
Especially as we’ve seen Onama give up takedowns before. We’ve seen Onama get tired, and get pummeled late. I am not convinced the first half of this fight looks easy for Pearce, but in a win, I do think Pearce has a very strong chance to exceed value.
He is +150 to win ITD and I still expect him to aggressively pursue a grappling game, which is the most important thing. Maybe he loses again, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.
Ultimately, Pearce is among my favorite options in the 8k range.
Onama at 7.6k is in play as well, and he could potentially work well as a leverage target if Pearce gets steamed this week.
If Onama is to win, he’ll have to keep Pearce off of him. That could come in the form of damage and a TKO. He also has some wrestling equity. I don’t think a win is a guaranteed optimal score, but he is +195 to win ITD and I like the projected pace of the matchup overall.
There are still a couple of obvious underdog targets priced below Onama, as well as other viable options in this range. He won’t be at the top of my priority list because of that. But he’s definitely in the mix as a solid secondary target, who rates out well on paper and carries some finishing equity too.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pearce by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Tim Means vs. Uros Medic
Fight Odds: Medic -309, Means +250
Odds to Finish: -240
DraftKings Salaries: Medic 9.1k, Means 7.1k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decent middle class fight here in the welterweight division between Uros Medic and UFC veteran Tim Means.
I originally didn’t think Medic was very good. He is a lengthy 6’1” striker with some power, and he generally just finished everyone in the first round early in his career. He then was dominated on the mat and then knocked out by Jalin Turner. I kind of just assumed Medic was an early KO or bust type of fighter after seeing that.
However, I actually think Medic showed me that he isn’t one-dimensional in his last two wins. He beat the crap out of Omar Morales for eight minutes and he at least showed he can carry power for more than a round.
Then in his last win against Matthew Semelsberger, he was hurt early. He then regrouped and got the better of the exchanges for the next ten minutes. He eventually knocked Semelsberger out in round three. It was good to see him be able to fight hard for nearly 15 minutes. He is landing 5.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.18 in return which is good thus far.
I still have some concerns with Medic. He can be hurt. He is also not a great defensive wrestler. He got dominated on the mat in his most recent matchup against Myktybek Orolbai and surely good wrestlers can dominate him on the ground.
However, Medic is at least a dangerous and long striker who has power. He also showed he can maintain his danger for three rounds. I still don’t know if he is actually that good, but I do think more highly of him now than I did a year or so ago.
Medic will be taking on UFC veteran Tim Means. I think Means is best as a striker. He is a sharp and technical boxer who uses his frame well. He lands 5.10 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.65 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. Those are good metrics, and I think Means is a solid and fundamental boxer.
Means is aging though. He is now 40 years old, and I do get a little more nervous watching him now than in the past. Maybe it is because he was knocked out by Niko Price and Daniel Rodriguez, so his chin concerns me. Those guys are both super dangerous though so perhaps I am being too hard on Means.
Still though, Means isn’t getting any younger. He was also hurt and submitted by Kevin Holland recently and then submitted by Morono. That was a very tough matchup for Means on paper, but I just don’t like already aging fighters taking damage and getting finished.
I still expect Means to be a fine fighter and capable on the feet, but I do suspect his best days are behind him. He did bounce back with a good win in his last matchup against Andre Fialho though, where we bet him as an underdog.
Means is a decent grappler. He lands 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of clinching or getting top position occasionally, especially off caught kicks. Means is also decent defensively as a wrestler and defends takedowns at 65 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I do understand why Medic is favored. He is 10 years younger than Means and his chances of hurting Means standing seem realistic. I also do expect this to mostly play out standing. So I do think picking Medic, which I am going to do, seems fair.
However, I just have some concerns here. Skill wise, Means may just be better than Medic at everything. Means is probably a better grappler and a more technical boxer. The only real advantage Medic has is youth and power. Those are fine reasons to favor Medic and they very well may be the X factors in this matchup, but -300 seems FAR too wide.
I really think the two most likely outcomes here are A) Medic is going to just knock Means out, or B) this is going to become a very competitive fight. I am honestly leaning towards the latter. I think the striking will be quite competitive and Means has a chance to mix in a takedown or two, but he probably won’t do much with it. Means should be able to compete on volume too. Be careful how you play this one guys. Medic could be a parlay buster.
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On DraftKings, Medic is priced up to 9.2k as a considerable favorite, and he’ll be in play for an early knockout.
Normally, these are spots where I tend to lean toward the dog or pick the dog outright, as I’ve never been that high on Medic. We cashed out big time on Orolobai in his last loss, taking advantage of Medic’s weakness on the mat.
However, I don’t believe Means can duplicate that game plan. Perhaps he can land a couple of takedowns, but I don’t think he can easily hold Medic down. Medic may even have some wrestling potential as Means doesn’t defend takedowns very well.
Standing, it should be competitive as long as nobody gets hurt. Medic is the younger, more powerful guy, and I think he’s probably more durable at this stage too. Medic has been hurt as well though.
I’m willing to pick Medic at this point in Means’ career as I think his durability is fading a bit, but from a fantasy perspective, Medic will need a big, early KO to exceed value. He is -165 to win ITD which is giving him a lot of respect, and I think he’s a fine tournament option overall.
He can be aggressive so if Medic does win by RD 1 KO, he could put up a very strong score. I just expect a handful of decent scores in this range, and if the fight gets extended, I’d be pretty worried about Medic not reaching a ceiling.
Because of that, he’s not necessarily a primary option for me. I’ll be spreading out my exposure in this range, or even attempting to be contrarian. I will mix Medic in as a secondary target with finishing upside, but there is risk as well.
Means at 7k is one of a handful of live underdogs on this slate and one of a handful of cheap options who is worth considering.
It’s more of a gut feeling, but I’m less interested in targeting him than I am several other spots though.
I just am not convinced Means will wrestle much, and on the feet, even a competitive striking affair doesn’t do a whole lot of good. I’d really want a KO or a finish for him to exceed value, as I worry some other fighters in this range can more realistically hit a ceiling.
Means is +550 to win ITD. It’s not an impossible outcome as Medic is somewhat breakable, both on the feet and on the mat. He’s priced right below two somewhat obvious finishing threats in Guskov and Lane, and I think works best as a pivot against those.
He also has more win equity and better skills on paper than some of the dart throws like Na and Yahya. But he’s still got to put himself in a firefight, so there’s no real floor here, and I think at best you’re hoping for a competitive kickboxing fight where he happens to hurt Medic.
Means is a fine low-end mix in but he won’t be a primary target of mine, even in this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Medic by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Victor Henry vs. Rani Yahya
Fight Odds: Henry -427, Yahya +329
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Henry 9.5k, Yahya 6.7k
Weight Class: 135
He’s only 39 years old but he looks a decade older – Rani Yahya will return to the cage on Saturday to face the hungry Victor Henry.
Yahya has been around forever. He’s 28-11 professionally and he’s been fighting as a pro since the early 2000s. He’s a BJJ black belt and a grappling ace, and 21 of his wins have come by submission.
In that, he’s a threat to take you down, take your back, and lock up a choke. He’s highly skilled from a variety of positions, including the bottom, and he can attack the legs as well.
Yahya lands 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and even a couple of years ago, he was beating legit competition like Kyung Ho Kang, who is a big, physical grappler. Yahya is legit.
However, his game stops at the grappling. There isn’t much else to rely on, and he’s quite vulnerable elsewhere.
Yahya only lands 1.59 sig. strikes per minute, and striking isn’t a real path to victory for him. He’ll do his best to limit exchanges, and grapple, but at distance he can be hit and he can be hurt.
The other issue is with his age/physicality/cardio. Yahya has always looked the part of a “natural” athlete, and he just cannot compete with the more physical fighters in this era. He tends to slow down too, and I trust him much less as the fight progresses.
I do wonder without USADA in the picture, whether Yahya will show up in better shape. He’s only fought once since 2021 and he was knocked out in the first round by Montel Jackson in 2023.
Overall, Yahya is a legit grappler and he shouldn’t be overlooked in that area, and his ability to engage on the ground is still underrated. Without ground domination, he doesn’t have many fallback options.
Now he’ll face Victor Henry, who has cemented his place in the UFC as a fun, action fighter with insane volume.
Henry debuted in the UFC against Raoni Barcelos and won a decision, which was a huge upset at the time. He’s since faced Raphael Assuncao, Tony Gravely and Javid Basharat, which is a pretty elite level of competition.
Henry has really shined with his attrition and striking volume, and he averages 8.26 sig. strikes landed per minute. He topped out at 181 against Barcelos and 154 against Gravely, which is really impressive.
He’s also a really strong submission grappler, though his wrestling isn’t the best. He has not yet landed a takedown in any of his four UFC fights, but he has the competency on the mat to survive.
In fact, Henry has never been finished in his entire pro career, with a 23-6 record. That ability to survive, escape danger, and fight back with volume is what makes Henry a threat.
This is an interesting matchup because on paper, yes, Henry is going to throw so much more volume than Yahya, that he should win. In a pure striking fight over 15 minutes, it wouldn’t be competitive. Henry also has legitimate knockout upside.
I am not certain he can defend Yahya’s takedowns though. He has given up a takedown to each of his four UFC opponents, and he defends at 78 percent.
Some of the times he’s been taken down, I feel he’s been off balanced too easily and I expect him to continue to get taken down in the future. Even on the regionals, he would get taken down and give up dominant positions at times.
Yahya is really, really good and really experienced. I definitely think he’s capable of landing a single leg takedown and taking the back. Maybe it won’t lead to a submission, and Henry will just escape and win anyways, but I’m not fully convinced it will look as easy as the odds suggest.
Yahya can also pull people on top of him and reverse position. He’s not just going to sit and trade with Henry. He’ll flop onto the floor and dive for legs, rather than choose to box.
It’s still a tough path to victory. If Henry had been subbed a bunch of times, I’d probably just pick Yahya to win outright. If that submission upside is capped, Yahya’s best chance may be to just hold position for extended minutes, which although possible, is far less likely.
I’m also not certain how Yahya will take damage in 2024. He may not take damage well, and it could just be an early shot that puts him down for good. I suppose I’ll pick the TKO as the eventual outcome though I do think Yahya can potentially compete here early and force some interesting grappling entanglements.
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On DraftKings, Henry is actually the most expensive fighter on the entire board at 9.5k, and I’m not super excited to play him based on that price.
The main reason to be excited is because Yahya may just be too old and shop worn, and he may get KOd quickly. A first-round KO from Henry could come with volume, and it could exceed 110 points.
I think that’s really the only outcome in which Henry would compete for the optimal lineup though.
Yahya only absorbs 1.77 sig. strikes per minute. He’s not going to allow Henry 150+ strikes here because he won’t force exchanges at all. That means in an extended fight, there is major bust risk, even with a late finish.
There’s also the risk that Yahya does land a takedown early, which could result in 3-5 minutes of control, and that could kill off some of Henry’s value as well.
Henry may also be willing to get on top of Yahya, who doesn’t defend takedowns because he wants to be on the mat. Any grappling exchange has the chance to extend the fight, and that is a risk to Henry from a fantasy perspective.
The upside may still be worth it. Henry is +145 to win ITD and I do think an early KO is viable.
I don’t think I’m going to force him in though. The 8k and 9k range have plenty of high-upside targets and I may not even have the salary to spend up this high consistently. My guess is that the public is going to prioritize the Medic/Diniz/Spann range this week and Henry could be slightly overlooked for that reason.
If you have the salary to pay up, I still consider Henry a fine secondary target, especially as I don’t project him to be super chalky. He has a great style to score in general. In this particular matchup, he’s much more boom or bust and I’m a bit hesitant to rely on that early KO at this price tag.
Yahya at 6.7k is honestly viable, but would only be a low-percentage play. He’s just a big underdog at +329 to win, and there are real risks with his age and form. It’s not an easy matchup either.
He’s so dependent on grappling to win though that his ceiling is still strong. In a win, Yahya should land takedowns and/or find a sub, and that should score 90-100 points. I do think he would contend for the optimal in a win, and at 6.7k with a super low public ownership, maybe it’s worth a sprinkle in large fields.
He’ll only classify as a punt or dart throw though, and I won’t have high expectations for him here. With a limited portfolio, it’s OK to pass on Yahya and target other fighters with more win equity.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Henry by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Austin Hubbard vs. Michael Figlak
Fight Odds: Figlak -164, Hubbard +141
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Figlak 8.4k, Hubbard 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After losing to Kurt Holobaugh in the TUF finale, it looks like Austin Hubbard is getting one last opportunity to keep his job in the UFC this weekend.
Austin Hubbard had an initial run in the UFC where he traded wins and losses, and wound up going 3-4 against low to mid-tier competition. He then fought on the Ultimate Fighter and came up short in the finale as mentioned above.
Hubbard is a bit of a generalist. He isn’t good at anything, but he isn’t particularly bad at anything either. He can strike a bit, he can grapple a bit, and he is pretty tough with decent cardio. He just isn’t great anywhere though and isn’t the best athlete either.
As a striker, Hubbard is just okay. He lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.37 in return. He defends strikes at 56 percent. I don’t think he is fast or anything special on the feet.
However, he does have okay boxing and is a very tough kid. He can just scrap a bit. I still don’t trust him standing though as he has no plus-skillset in his striking game.
I do think Hubbard is a decent offensive wrestler though. He lands 1.55 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t bad in top position. He landed four takedowns against Vinc Pichel and did win some fights on TUF with offensive wrestling. He is also a decent defensive wrestler and defends takedowns at 63 percent, and scrambles up well enough.
I still just don’t trust Hubbard to ever run away in a fight in any particular area against anyone good. I think Hubbard is moreso made to beat underdeveloped fighters who have holes in their game. He just isn’t good enough to easily defeat developed fighters.
Hubbard will be taking on another generalist in Michal Figlak. Figlak fought in the Cage Warriors promotion and was 8-0 before making his UFC debut last September. In his debut, he lost to Fares Ziam by getting outstruck and outwrestled. Ziam isn’t a terrible fighter or anything, but it wasn’t a good look from Figlak to lose in all areas of the game pretty soundly.
I still do think Figlak looks okay though. He can strike a bit and he throws some decent hands. I think he has some hand speed and he throws in combination which I like. He is also pretty aggressive on the feet, meaning he is always walking forward and pushing the pace.
It is weird though because even though Figlak is generally the one stalking his opponents, he doesn’t always turn it into landing a large volume of strikes. I would like to see him actually let his hands and offense go a bit more when he has people backing up. Still though, Figlak is generally a decent striker and seems tough too.
Figlak can also offensively wrestle a bit. He isn’t a great wrestler but he’s capable, and he has some blended BJJ in his game as well. He can put hooks in and sweep, and generally seems competent on the mat.
I did not like how Figlak was taken down and held down against Ziam though. Ziam landed three takedowns and obtained 6:48 of control which was an awful look.
I am still kind of undecided about Figlak. Some people seem to be high on him, but I basically think he is a low-tier UFC fighter who may stick around if he gets some favorable matchups. He seems like a tough guy who can strike and wrestle a bit. However, like Hubbard, he doesn’t seem particularly great anywhere so he probably won’t go very far in the UFC.
As far as this matchup goes, this seems like an extremely competitive fight between two tough kids. On the feet, I think this is very close. I tend to lean Figlak on the feet because I like his aggression and forward progress a bit more. I feel like if there is anyone looking to push a pace standing, it will probably be Figlak and that is the reason why I am going with him in this matchup. I still do expect the striking exchanges to be competitive though and I am not fully confident on how it will look.
I actually do think Hubbard is a better wrestler though. Seeing Ziam take Figlak down and obtain stretches of control definitely makes me think Hubbard is capable of having wrestling success of his own. It really wouldn’t surprise me if Hubbard landed 2-3 takedowns across this fight, which could honestly swing a round or something. So Hubbard is live to win for sure.
I also think Hubbard is live because Figlak won’t overwhelm him in any area of this matchup. I think he can strike competitively and grapple competitively against Figlak. My guess is that this fight extends and we have a back and forth affair against two well-matched fighters.
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On DraftKings, I am less interested in this matchup given the potential for it to be competitive, and I don’t plan on prioritizing it this week.
My guess is that the public will feel the same – especially with both coming off pretty poor losses last time out.
Figlak is priced at 8.4k, with a +285 line to win ITD. He does have wrestling in his game and that’s why we were excited to target him in his debut, but his debut showing was ugly, and now it’s hard to be confident in that path.
For 8.4k, I would honestly just label Figlak as a contrarian target. I see Llontop, Silva and Pearce getting a ton of ownership in this range, and Figlak should get squeezed because of it.
He could be worth a sprinkle for contrarian purposes – as he has some wrestling equity and some finishing equity – but I don’t feel great about either and I ultimately don’t plan on rostering Figlak very often.
Hubbard at 7.8k doesn’t have as strong of an ITD line at +375, and I don’t expect him to be popular either.
Some wrestling equity intrigues me, but there are several better finishing options priced below the mid-range and I feel pretty obligated to prioritize them.
With that said, Hubbard is more of a contrarian target as well. He doesn’t profile as a great fantasy option, and I think his best chance to contend for the optimal will be in a grappling-based win, where the vast majority of other dogs on this slate fail.
It’s not an impossible outcome but I’d lean toward Hubbard just being a low-end target this week and I won’t end up with too much with a limited portfolio of lineups.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Figlak by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Don’Tale Mayes vs. Caio Machado
Fight Odds: Machado -113, Mayes -101
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Machado 8.3k, Mayes 7.9k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a very ugly fight here in the heavyweight division between Don’Tale Mayes and Caio Machado. I hate breaking down Mayes’ fights as I don’t think he is very good, but let’s get into it.
Mayes is a really big guy at 6’6” with an 81” reach. He is also a mild to moderate athlete for a HW. So his size and decent athleticism help him. He just isn’t that skilled though.
Mayes generally has struck in his UFC fights. He lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.84 in return. He defends strikes at 46 percent. He isn’t even fighting the best competition and is still absorbing more strikes than he lands which isn’t good.
I do think Mayes is somewhat competent on the feet. He can switch stances. He has a decent jab and can mix in straight punches and hooks. He also likes to mix in occasional kicks, especially a front kick to the body.
I do wish he had a bit more power though. He is capable of hurting opponents, but I don’t think he has big time power.
I really disliked his performance recently against Augusto Sakai. Sakai outlanded him 53-29 in significant strikes and Mayes just looked bad. It made me even less confident in him going forward. He recently lost to Rodrigo Nascimento and also didn’t look great.
Mayes has only landed takedowns in one UFC fight. He landed six takedowns against Josh Parisian. He landed some body lock takedowns and was able to camp out in half guard. He also was able to land ground and pound in the crucifix position.
It was honestly a decent performance by Mayes. His top game looked fine for a HW. It also just showed that he has another path to victory in his game. I think he can continue to have success against bad grapplers, which this weight division is full of. The issue is that he just may not go to it. He had a potential grappling path to victory against Sakai and only attempted one takedown. He defends takedowns at 60 percent.
Mayes will be taking on Caio Machado. Machado is a Brazilian fighter who is 8-2-1 professionally. He booked his ticket to the UFC by winning on the Contender Series where he outlanded his opponent 121-17 in significant strikes.
Machado then made his UFC debut in a somewhat tough spot against Mick Parkin. He lost by decision, but I actually thought he looked decent in that fight.
Machado actually outlanded Parkin 76-39 at distance and hurt Parkin a couple of times. Parkin landed three takedowns though and obtained 6:23 of control, and rightfully won the fight. I still thought Machado did a decent job with his defensive grappling though. He defended 7/10 takedown attempts, retained guard and defended himself well, and kept working his way up.
I mostly think Machado is going to strike in his fights. He is long at 6’4” and stands out of the southpaw stance. He has a good rear left kick and can also use that leg for random knees. He has some decent punches and a winging overhand left. He also does decent work in the clinch.
I also tend to think he is a tough guy and he will look to be aggressive and put consistent offense up for a full 15 minutes. I don’t think his defense is great, but I honestly thought he looked okay on the feet against Parkin.
Machado does look to have BJJ in his game but he doesn’t look to wrestle much. As mentioned above, I thought his defensive grappling looked okay against Parkin and he did a decent job defending against a 10-takedown attempt performance from Parkin.
Overall, Machado looks okay. He will strike hard for 15 minutes and looks capable of defending himself from grapplers.
I actually lean Machado slightly in this matchup. I think the striking will be competitive, but I like Machado’s aggressiveness a bit more. I also think he is more likely to hurt Mayes than vice versa. Mayes just also always seems to underperform as well and doesn’t always like to be pressured. This is heavyweight so anything can happen on the feet, but I tend to just like Machado a bit more as a striker.
Mayes may look to grapple, but he almost never wrestles so I tend to think he won’t have wrestling success in this matchup. Furthermore, even if Mayes tries to grapple, I think Machado would defend himself fine.
This is just a low level HW fight where I think it will be ugly on the feet, but I have a little more faith in Machado to go for it a bit more and mix in his strikes a little more often.
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On DraftKings, this projects as a really gross fight with the entirety of the fantasy upside built into a finish.
Machado is priced at 8.3k, while Mayes is priced at 7.9k, and considering the matchup is +110 to end inside the distance, I doubt many will be excited to roster either guy.
Machado is +285 to win ITD and is probably the more trustworthy volume striker. Without much grappling equity, you’re still hoping he can find a random KO. It’s possible, but very difficult to invest in.
Mayes is not a real knockout threat but this is low-level HW, and he’s the more experienced guy of the two. He’s actually +250 to win ITD so in theory he could be preferred at the cheaper price tag.
It’s going to be really difficult for me to click either option, personally, and I’d only label both as lower-end, boom or bust options. I just don’t see either fitting into my ideal constructions, and there’s significant bust risk in an extended fight.
With that said, if you want to buy into some HW variance, in a fight that shouldn’t be owned much, it’s not a terrible thought for larger fields. Or simply mixing in both sides around the field percentage in tournaments makes sense.
But I’m not aiming to take a major stand, nor do I have much confidence in either side. Take a little just in case we get a random early KO but the matchup will fall behind many others on my priority list.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Machado by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ketlen Souza vs. Marnic Mann
Fight Odds: Souza -324, Mann +260
Odds to Finish: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Souza 9.2k, Mann 7k
Weight Class: 115
A super low-level fight, both Ketlen Souza and Marnic Mann will be looking for their first UFC victory on Saturday.
Souza debuted in the UFC last June against Karine Silva, and got her knee torn apart with a leg lock early in the first round. She’s now 13-4 professionally at 28 years old, and I consider her a capable regional fighter with a weak ceiling at the UFC level.
Souza has eight wins by knockout, and she’s probably best as a striker. However, I don’t think she’s particularly great in any aspect, and I wouldn’t label her as a real KO threat in this division.
She also has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and is capable of occasionally landing takedowns and working from top position. When she is on top, she doesn’t seem like a major submission threat though, and I would only expect her to outgrapple weak competition.
Perhaps the best attribute to Souza’s game is that she’s gone the distance a bunch of times on the regional scene, which included a five-round victory over Kristina Williams in Invicta.
She rates out as the type who can compete in rounds, primarily with her hands, but I don’t see major finishing upside and she might be a bit liable defensively.
Her opponent Marnic Mann is one of the more obvious, non-UFC level talents that has come into the organization in recent years. She got a short notice call for her UFC debut after getting kicked in the head and KOd in her one chance on DWCS.
In that debut against Josefine Knutsson, Mann landed eight significant strikes in 15 minutes, and was taken down and controlled for nearly 11 minutes.
Mann is now 6-2 professionally, with three wins by TKO and one by submission, but she’s a grappler and her only real chance at winning UFC fights is by getting on top.
Unfortunately, she’s a really poor athlete and falls well below average in physicality, which will be a problem in any matchup.
This lack of physicality has led to her getting bullied, easily taken down, and hurt in striking exchanges. She just won’t last at this level.
But to her credit, she does wrestle fairly aggressively, and she’s reasonably competent as a grappler. She would beat a very poor defensive wrestler and grappler just fine.
Mann likes to use trip takedowns, and some throws. It’s not great wrestling but it’s good enough at the low levels of the women’s divisions. And she’s competent on top. Not a huge finishing threat but she can transition into dominant positions.
The issue is that her game seems very one dimensional, and not very strong, and when you combine that with poor athleticism, it’s a recipe to lose.
I’ve also not seen her have success in many extended striking exchanges, which isn’t a good sign. She is not likely to throw volume, and she’s not likely to wear damage well. At best she can survive a while and get her wrestling going. At worst, she’s a pretty severe liability to get hurt.
Ultimately, it’s why Souza is a heavy favorite in this matchup, despite her low ceiling and disappointing UFC debut.
In theory, Souza should be the superior striker. She should be more effective, and more willing to throw volume. It’s possible Mann could have zero success in striking exchanges, and any consistent offensive production would come as a pleasant surprise.
I also think Souza can knock her out. Or, I should rephrase and say that Mann profiles as a fighter who will get finished in losses. She really cannot defend herself well enough.
Is Souza good enough to actually hurt her and knock her out? Eh, maybe. It’s hard to project that outcome. But I’d like to bet against Mann longterm.
On the ground, Mann may have a shot. Simply by shooting takedowns, you can win at the low levels of this division. We’ve seen Souza taken down and held down, and submitted. She’s been too willing to play guard at times.
My guess is that it still won’t be enough. Mann just is not physical and she can get reversed when on top. Souza is probably the better wrestler outright and she’s probably the better submission grappler too.
Mann can be taken down and beaten up, and finished there too, so anyone facing her has upside. Knutsson landed 147 total strikes. I’m not certain Souza will prioritize the ground, and she’s not necessarily an elite grappler herself, but there’s still some upside given the matchup.
I have to favor Souza for those reasons. Souza falls into the category of “not being good enough for me to be surprised if she loses to anyone,” but Mann is not a UFC level talent and if Souza is ever going to win a fight, this is probably the one.
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On DraftKings, Souza is priced up to 9.2k which is pretty expensive and definitely puts questions as to whether she’s a good fantasy target.
I don’t think many people will target her, when push comes to shove. Coming off a quick loss, in the women’s strawweight division, at 9.2k, it doesn’t feel super worth it. Souza is only +200 to win ITD which isn’t great for this price tag.
Plus, we have some obvious upside targets in Spann, Diniz, and Medic priced nearby, and they should draw a ton of attention. Rightfully so. If you don’t want to play Souza at all, that’s probably fine.
The case I will make is that to me, Mann profiles as a fighter who will get finished, or dominated in losses. It’s already happened twice. There are multiple paths for Souza to get there.
It’s probably fair to assume that domination doesn’t come at an extremely high rate, and so targeting the more obvious finishers in this range does make sense. This is a big price tag so she’ll need to crush.
I still think it’s a realistic outcome though. She is a huge favorite and I’m not convinced Mann can fight her competitively. Maybe she can. There’s more risk targeting Souza, but she does have contrarian appeal to me.
Mann at 7k is only a low-percentage flier and probably not one I’ll get to often with a limited portfolio.
In theory, she can wrestle some which gives her fantasy upside. Souza isn’t perfect as a grappler. She’ll be low owned. Taking a couple chances on her with a larger portfolio is actually probably smart.
But she just isn’t very talented, or physical, and she’s a big underdog here. A finish feels unlikely at +910 ITD. There are enough other underdogs with upside who are viable targets, and I will have to prioritize them.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Souza by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
James Llontop vs. Chris Padilla
Fight Odds: Llontop -384, Padilla +300
Odds to Finish: Under 2.5 RDs -173
DraftKings Salaries: Llontop 8.2k, Padilla 6.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually looking forward to the debut of Peruvian fighter James Llontop this weekend. Llontop was originally scheduled to fight Lando Vannata and Gabe Green who both had to pull out due to injury. He is now fighting Chris Padilla who took this fight on short notice.
Llontop is 14-2 professionally and he has mostly fought poor competition. Llontop booked his ticket to the UFC by beating the crap out of Malik Lewis on the Contender Series. Llontop soundly outstruck Lewis throughout the fight, stopped takedowns when he needed to, and just put a pace on Lewis for 15 minutes.
Pace and cardio are the biggest weapons that Llontop has. This guy just does not get tired and will go forward HARD for 15 minutes.
I think Llontop is best as a striker. He has an absolutely brutal switch kick that he will mix to the head and body. I like his straight punches. He also will mix it up to all levels and target the legs, body, and head. He again just brutalizes his opponents for 15 minutes and will not stop coming. I definitely think he can do well on the feet at this level.
Llontop will also look to land takedowns and beat people up with ground and pound from top position. I don’t think he is the most technical wrestler, but his pace and ground and pound are relentless and he will look to land strikes from position to position.
Llontop also looks like a competent defensive wrestler to me. I did see him get his back taken once which wasn’t great. However, he is always working to his feet and outside of a back take, I think he will be hard to hold down.
Overall, I think Llontop is a fun addition to the UFC and he will be in plenty of fun action fights.
Llontop will be taking on Chris Padilla who will be making his UFC debut and taking this fight on short notice. Padilla is 13-6 professionally and is basically a regional journeyman. He has fought UFC veterans Jason Gonzalez, Christian Aguilera, Gabe Green, and Justin Jaynes. So he does have some experience, but he generally lost all those fights.
It is tough because there is minimal tape on Padilla.I have only seen a fight or two of his in the last seven years so it is hard to break him down. Please understand that some of my analysis on him is based on tape seven years ago, so he could be a totally different fighter now.
To me, Padilla looks like an early storm type of fighter who will come out aggressively and look to land strikes or grapple. He generally looks best as a grappler and has four submission wins on his record. I still don’t know how good of a grappler he actually is though.
As a striker, Padilla looks flawed defensively and I am a bit worried about his gas tank. Against Jason Gonzalez, he nearly knocked Gonzalez out but then he gassed badly and got beaten up.
To me, I can’t totally trust Padilla on the feet at this point unless he is landing an early knockout. As a grappler, he actually looks okay but I am not sure he is that good, and I don’t think he will be able to dominate with it for a full 15 minutes fight.
I personally really like Llontop’s pace and striking. I think it is reasonable to assume Llontop has a major cardio advantage here because his cardio is so good and Padilla is taking this on short notice. If this stays standing for extended periods, I think Llontop will probably beat Padilla up and eventually find a stoppage.
Padilla could potentially have grappling success though. However, I really think it will have to come from a backtake or very early while he is fresh. I personally think Llontop looks like a competent defensive wrestler though. So my guess is that Llontop will survive the early burst from Padilla and eventually his conditioning will take over, given he has a crazy pace and had a full camp to prepare for this matchup.
This is all speculation though as we haven’t seen much tape of Padilla recently so we don’t know exactly what we are going to get. However, given the circumstances I think Llontop is the rightful favorite.
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On DraftKings, we have an annoying situation with Llontop priced at 8.2k, despite being a massive favorite, lined near -400.
What’s annoying about the situation is that the fight was canceled last week. DK and the provider weren’t paying attention so they priced in Llontop vs. Green this week and immediately had to cancel it.
We can’t change prices once they’re pushed live, so Llontop is now a screaming value at 8.2k, and he will be ultra-chalk because of it.
It’s also a tough situation with Padilla coming in on short notice, and there being almost no usable fight footage of his in recent years. We don’t even know what to expect.
I honestly didn’t love what I saw from Llontop. While he looks fine as a pace/volume fighter, I don’t think he’s super technical. I don’t love his defensive wrestling, though he’ll at least try to work back up. I also don’t love the Peruvian regional scene where most of his fights took place..
Padilla has fought much better competition, though he mostly loses to them. I actually saw one highlight of his recently where he took the back of his opponent, and in that exchange, I thought his offensive grappling prowess looked capable.
Honestly, that one highlight makes me think Padilla is an outright better grappler than Llontop.
Still, does he have any cardio? I’m not sure. It’s probably safest to view this fight as Padilla needing early success, primarily on the ground. If not, Llontop probably takes over and maybe knocks him out.
At -400 to win with a decent ITD line (not out yet), Llontop will project as the best value on the slate by far. My guess on Thursday is that he’ll be 40-50 percent owned. Silva and Pearce will draw a lot of attention, but he’s an easy salary saver with great metrics.
The easiest answer here is to play him moderately or heavily as well. You’re getting a fighter for cheap who is very likely to win on paper, and theoretically likely to win ITD. For cash games he’s a lock.
For tournaments, there’s a really good chance Llontop wins. There’s value in that. There’s a reasonable chance he wins ITD and competes for the optimal.
The ownership makes it very tricky of course. Even if you’re playing a ton of him and he crushes, you’re not standing out from the field. Playing him with Guskov and Nicolau and Medic, for example, won’t help you be unique. So the more Llontop you play, the more I’d consider being unique in a spot or two.
Or you can take extra chances on fighters surrounding Llontop, hoping he doesn’t surpass the 100 point mark. Maybe Machado or Mayes win ITD. Pearce and Silva are great pivot options as well. Or even playing Llontop and leaving $500+ on the table is viable.
I’ll end up with moderate or more exposure to Llontop by default, but it’s the type of situation that should really get you thinking about overall construction.
Padilla at 6.9k will mostly be a leverage target. I don’t see anyone targeting him this week, especially with other interesting options littering the bottom tier.
He does have grappling upside within his style, in theory, and a win for Padilla could come early (I doubt he has a great chance to win a decision).
So there’s upside here on paper. And a low ownership percentage. And you’re killing off half the field if he wins.
If you have a large enough portfolio to play with, I don’t mind a sprinkle of Padilla. ESPECIALLY because we do not have real tape on him, there’s a higher chance that the odds are simply not correct.
However, it would only be a low percentage sprinkle, and I won’t have any real expectations for Padilla, outside of him maybe getting a takedown and/or the back in one early exchange.
Should be a fun fight, for as long as it lasts.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Llontop by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Ivana Petrovic vs. Liang Na
Fight Odds: Petrovic -462, Na +350
Odds to Finish: -350
DraftKings Salaries: Petrovic 9.4k, Na 6.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Ivana Petrovic is the former Ares FC Flyweight champion who dropped the ball in her debut this past July against Luana Carolina – she’s 6-1 as a pro. Na Liang has had a rough go of it since entering the UFC back in 2021, and is now on the last fight of her contract – she’s 0-3 in the UFC and 19-7 as a pro.
The striking component:
Petrovic is a grappler by base and her stand up isn’t the prettiest. She is a bigger girl at 125, standing 5’8” with a 70” reach but what she does is relatively basic and predictable.
She’s got a 1-2 and a low kick and that’s about it. I wouldn’t say she’s “low volume” necessarily but she surely isn’t high volume, and is relatively slow and static.
As a result, she’s had some struggles and I would say is largely losing the exchanges in her fights, or it’s just competitive. She’s also been dropped twice – once with a kick on TD entry and once with an elbow in the clinch.
To her credit, she gritted out those fights and found a way to win, but it’s still pretty alarming that she’s gotten hurt twice regionally and against not the best level of competition.
We only saw about five minutes of distance time in her UFC debut against Carolina, but she did get out struck there 27-16 at distance and ate the bigger distance/clinch shots.
Overall, she’s a sub-par striker in relation to how it translates to a UFC level.
Our footage on Liang is pretty limited overall and in recent years, so there isn’t much to say through her first 3 UFC fights.
She came hot out the gate in her debut against Carnelossi where she hurt her early but there was little overall distance time – she then got clocked by Juarez in a minute.
Most recently, she showed some more composure standing against Aldrich where both girls landed some good shots, but the cleaner shots came from Aldrich – the distance strikes were 9-9.
But dating back to some of her regional days, she’s essentially just thrown herself at girls with six wins via KO and four losses via KO, but all four have come on the ground positionally.
That’s about all there is to say with her standing at this point.
How it plays out: The striking’s a mess here as I don’t rate Petrovic much and Liang hasn’t shown any real ability to win extended exchanges on the feet. Liang probably has more power on the feet to be honest, and both girls have been hurt so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Liang find success here. But Petrovich at least has shown more technical components and the ability to strike competitively to a degree in multiple fights over extended duration.
The wrestling/grappling component:
This is the base of Petrovic as she’s a BJJ purple belt as of 2019 – she may have leveled up since then, but I can’t confirm.
Her wrestling hasn’t been particularly encouraging in a handful of fights, but it did look better in her fight against Wozniak. It’s just that her entries can be slow and telegraphed which has allowed multiple opponents to stuff multiple TDs from her.
But at the end of the day, she’s always found her way to the ground to either do enough to edge out decisions, or get to dominant positions to eventually finish via GNP or RNC.
But she’s also not really having consistent grappling success throughout her minutes either – like it’s not a scenario with her where she shoots, gets it and finishes – girls have stuffed, and girls have gotten up countless times.
It’s more of what I would call the “Roxanne Modafferi syndrome” of her having success in the law of large numbers – meaning, I’m going to just do something enough times until it eventually works.
Now that can be a very effective strategy and once she does get into dominant positions in her fights, she does tend to finish from there.
She went 2/6 against Carolina in her debut and threatened some subs and got one reversal, but the general ground exchanges did have some back-and-forth components which isn’t the best of looks against a base thai girl in Carolina who did find top success in that fight as well.
Overall, I don’t think we’re dealing with a girl who’s going to be competing in ADCC anytime soon, but she does have a game to beat girls of a lower level that don’t come correct on the mat.
Liang comes from a floor background which is essentially how the large majority of her fights have been won or lost.
She actually had some early success on both Carnelossi and Aldrich, getting the fights to the floor which was somewhat unanticipated, and she threatened with some subs and ground strikes.
But she’s the dictionary definition of a submission over position type of girl as she just can’t maintain top positions and both girls were able to reverse her, get on top and eventually pound her out.
She was also finished on the mat by Yan, Agapova and Velasquez back regionally and was outwrestled to a decision by Shakirova.
Essentially all of her pro wins come via submission or positional TKOs, but they’ve come against absolutely terrible levels of competition.
To her credit, I didn’t think she would have as much success as she did on Aldrich in that fight who traditionally has pretty good TDD – like Erin Blanchfield couldn’t even take Aldrich down which I find kind of funny.
But the girl has only won one fight past the first round in her whole career, and she just collapses past that.
So she’s probably going to continue to give an honest effort through five minutes but after that you can’t anticipate her to do a ton, at least against a capable opponent.
How it plays out: I honestly think Liang can have success early on the ground with Petrovic and maybe even put her in some tricky spots. But the whole gimmick with Petrovic is her ability to outlast, shoot in moderate volume and find positions late which is kind of the kryptonite to Liang, who’s also a horrible positional grappler with bad cardio, so I have to give a decent edge overall on the ground to Petrovic as the girl who can grapple late where Liang hasn’t shown that at all.
Dumpster fire of a fight. I was pretty skeptical of Petrovic coming in and she honestly proved the point that she’s not very good. But she’s the only fighter in this equation that has proven she can fight for 15 minutes where Liang hasn’t shown much past six minutes. Also, despite some rocky regional performances and the debut against Carolina, Petrovic has beaten the better girls at the end of the day so she’s the rightful favorite and my pick to win.
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On DraftKings, this is a tricky one.
The fight projects to have a heavy amount of grappling exchanges, and end ITD, so the winner here should have a strong floor and ceiling.
Liang Na has become somewhat of a meme too. She’s known for relentlessly grappling, having success, and then collapsing. But this has meant huge scores for whoever wins her fights (she’s never won in the UFC, so it’s always been her opponent).
Petrovic is priced up to 9.4k though, and she’s not particularly great. I’m less worried about Na on the feet here than in past matchups. And I do think Na can have early success.
Because of that, I’m hesitant to play a lot of Petrovic, despite the analysis above. I worry that she won’t land a ton of takedowns, or that she could be losing early minutes. A late finish would still allow her to score well, but is it optimal at 9.4k? I’m not so sure.
Petrovic is -225 to win ITD which is tied for the best line on the slate, and it’s hard to ignore her because of that. I just really worry that her chances of winning in round one are not nearly as strong as her chances to win late, and those odds may also be worse than other fighter’s RD 1 odds within this same pricing tier.
Still, considering she’s grappling dependent, a win should still score well.
I’ve gone back-and-forth but I think I would rather prioritize fighters who project to dominate from the start, whereas I’m much more nervous about Petrovic doing that. Given the high price, I’ll probably only use her as a secondary target, rather than a primary one. I’m spreading out my exposure in this range anyway, as there are too many good options to choose from.
Na at 6.8k is certainly viable based on her style, but the real problem is that she’ll need to win to be optimal.
Landing three takedowns, looking strong, and losing while scoring 25-40 points still isn’t ideal. And because she’s shown an inability to fight for 15 minutes, and is now +350 to win, you can certainly make the argument that she’s just not worth playing.
My primary concern is just that her style is soo good to score fantasy points. If she does win, she’ll smash. And her actual skills are fine. She can wrestle well. She’s had lots of success early. Her opponent this week isn’t even that great.
It’s hard to project a finish though, and therefore hard to project a win at all. Na will ultimately just be another one of these lower end dart throws, and a play you’d only use if you have a large enough portfolio to work with.
There’s no reason to prioritize her but with a larger portfolio, Na is a fine punt for tournaments based on her style, upside and low public ownership.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petrovic by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Gabriel Benitez vs. Maheshate
Fight Odds: Maheshate -207, Benitez +175
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Maheshate 8.8k, Benitez 7.4k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Maheshate’s an alum of the 2021 season of the Contender Series where he’s had mixed results in the UFC – he’s 1-2 in the promotion and 9-3 as a pro. Gabriel Benitez was a part of the TUF Latin America 1 season back in 2014. He’s also had a mixed bag of results over the years and is now at the not so ripe age of 35 years old – he’s 7-7 in the UFC and 23-11 as a pro.
The striking component:
Maheshate comes from a striking background and is a good sized 155er, standing 6’ tall with a 71” reach. Our sample on him is still relatively small but I’m starting to get a better gauge of his game.
Being that he’s a bigger guy at the weight, he primarily excels at range and when he can dictate the exchanges of his fights. He’s got some good front kicks, knees, check hooks and straight rights. He’s also shown power components with four of his nine pro wins coming via KO.
The primary issue I have with Maheshate is that he’s one of those guys who really needs to be in the driver’s seat to have overt amounts of success.
We saw him struggle with the pressure of Estremadura early on in his Contender Series fight, where he got hurt multiple times and dropped the 1st round – Estremadura just got tired after that Maheshate more or less took over.
He then iced Steve Garcia early who just came at Maheshate too recklessly.
The distance exchanges with Rafa Garcia were competitive but he struggled with the blitzing nature of Garcia. That fight was kind of alarming from a striking perspective because Maheshate had a good size advantage and only went 23/138 at distance – he also got tired in that outing.
Most recently against Borshchev, he got out-worked and struggled with the technicality and diversity of strikes, where he got out landed 69 to 29 at distance and was dropped three times before getting officially TKO’d.
Overall, I actually see some potential in Maheshate as a striker at just 24 years old. He just hasn’t put everything together yet and needs to fully harness how to use his tools with consistency.
Benitez is a southpaw that comes from a kickboxing background.
He works a good 1-2 combination and is really at his best when he can dictate exchanges fighting from the outside, but he can mix it up in the pocket as well with hooks.
His output is respectable statistically, landing 4.92 sig. strikes per minute at 41% accuracy, although he’s only eclipsed the 60 significant strike mark twice so far in the UFC.
But he’s shown some power with KO wins over Jaynes, Bandenay and Ontiveros. Additionally, he landed two knockdowns against Sicilia and Billy Q, and hurt both Yusuff and Onama in those losses.
Defensively, he eats 4.26 sig. strikes per minute, while defending at 62%, and he defends distance strikes at 67% with a positive distance differential of +1.71/minute – not too shabby.
However, he’s been KO’d four times, but really no shame in the sequences as he got caught with a head kick from Fili, and got clipped by Yusuff and Onama who are bigger hitters.
But he did get dropped by Billy Q and ate 100 significant strikes – the greatest number of significant strikes anyone’s landed on him by a good margin in his UFC career – he was TKO’d there, but it was from back control.
Miller also landed 80 significant strikes on him at a 57% clip as well, which isn’t the best of looks.
Really the common theme in his last 3-4 losses where he was out struck was that he just struggled with effective pressure and ate the bigger shots.
So, despite some of the metrics referenced above and saying Benitez has been an effective outside fighter, those two aspects have started to falter with him in his mid-30s.
Overall, I still rate Benitez as a technical striker, but he can hang out in the pocket too long at times and his durability is of bigger concern at this point in his career – coupled with him fighting at 155 lbs. now, which isn’t his natural weight class.
How it plays out: A bulk of what the stand up comes down to on minutes is at what range the fight is fought in. I don’t think either guy does particularly well on the back foot in 2024 so pressure is probably key here. But we did see Benitez get put down with the same counter right hand from Yusuff that Maheshate landed on Garcia, which is interesting. Maheshate will serve as the bigger guy and probably the bigger hitter in the individual matchup with less tread on the tires. However, Maheshate still hasn’t had one complete striking performance in his last four fights and Benitez isn’t a guy that’s easy to cleanly outland.
The wrestling/grappling component:
There isn’t much to say here offensively given that Maheshate is a base striker and he’s rarely wrestled. He shot two TDs last time out against Borshchev, but both were stuffed with relative ease – not the best of looks given Borshchev’s historic struggles with his TDD.
He has one win via submission but that was in his 2nd pro fight back in 2019 and one I wasn’t able to view.
Defensively, there is a bit to say. It was in his 1st pro loss against Goncharov where he got grinded out for the better part of 15 minutes. Then, Rafa Garcia went 6/11 on TDs, racking up six minutes of control time.
Maheshate was able to stuff early but it was when Garcia was able to close the distance and begin to grind, the TDs started coming easier which really put a stamp on those rounds. In the defense of Maheshate, Garcia is a good wrestler whose larger career successes have come from the floor.
Nonetheless, the floor has been the bigger component in how he’s dropped two of his pro fights.
Benitez rarely looks to wrestle as he wants to keep his fights standing and work his outside game – 0.24 TDs per 15 minutes at 50%.
But he did slam KO Bandenay back in the day and wrecked Ontiveros from top positions, so he’s not incapable of doing things.
Defensively, he only stuffs TDs at 55% which isn’t very good, but it needs to be noted that his get-up game has been stronger as a difficult guy to hold down in the aggregate.
One of the fights to touch on was against Barzola where he was taken down nine times and controlled for 5+ minutes. That was the difference in the fight in why Barzola edged a decision but the control rate per TD wasn’t that good, giving credence to his get-up game. It also needs to be noted that Barzola is a solid wrestler and plays the blanket game well.
However, Billy Q was able to get almost nine minutes of control time on three TDs and get to Benitez’s back on multiple occasions – officially finished him off with punches from back control – really the first guy to “wash” Benitez on the ground.
Miller also went 2/2 on TDs being able to establish control and finish Benitez from the back with a neck crank.
So the get-up game and scrambling ability of Benitez has faltered a tad in recent years – granted both guys referenced are Black Belts.
He does have a couple guillotine chokes in the UFC and will attack front headlock positions, but his grappling is more so used for defensive purposes or to discourage shots.
Overall, you have to classify the ground as a weakness for Benitez at this point.
How it plays out: Both guys really don’t wrestle so it’s hard to project the ground in this fight. As noted, the guys who have bested Benitez on the ground are either good wrestlers and/or above average-grapplers which Maheshate is not, so I don’t really have that same concern for him in this matchup. Benitez does serve as the better ground fighter here with 10 pro wins via submission where it would be smart for him to mix in some TDs, but he’s only shot four in the last decade so you can’t trust him to wrestle. The upside in theory is there though.
Interesting fight. We haven’t seen Maheshate in nearly a year and he’s at that age where large fight to fight improvements are on the table. You then have Benitez who’s definitely the more established talent and fought the better brand of competition, but is also a regressing fighter at 35 years old and fighting up in weight. All seven of the guys he’s beaten are no longer in the UFC but all seven he’s lost to are either still in the UFC or fighting at the upper tiers of other organizations. Skill for skill, Benitez can absolutely win this fight, but I just don’t trust his chin at this point especially against a bigger guy at 155. So Maheshate will be my pick but not with a strong degree of confidence.
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On DraftKings, this is an interesting matchup right out of the gate and one that could produce some fantasy value.
Mostly, it will be a boom or bust spot, but I think there’s a pretty reasonable chance that someone gets hurt. Odds favor it to be Maheshate to do the damage, but I’m a bit skeptical.
Maheshate is priced at 8.8k and I think works best as a semi-salary saver from that 9k range. He’s -110 to win ITD which is pretty strong, but honestly his fight metrics are awful.
I was huge in betting against him in his last bout against Borshchev, and Borshchev knocked him down three times and finished him off. Losing to Rafa Garcia is a bad sign as well, and thus far Maheshate is not even landing 3.0 strikes per minute.
Benitez seems to be wearing down though, and he’s breakable. I could realistically picture Maheshate hurting Benitez early and getting the KO.
At 8.8k, Maheshate is not my favorite target, but you can argue he has very similar upside, and odds to reach that upside as a handful of the 9k boom or bust targets. So I really don’t mind paying down to him when necessary, and I think sprinkling him in based on finishing metrics makes sense at least.
I just view him as a clear bust candidate without an early KO, due to lack of volume and lack of wrestling.
Benitez at 7.4k is another live underdog, though not one I have a lot of faith in.
Benitez hasn’t shown a willingness to wrestle, so at best, he’ll just be in a firefight with Maheshate. I love his kicking game, and he’s far more experienced, but he probably has less KO power.
Still, Maheshate has been hurt multiple times in his short career. Benitez is +325 to win ITD which is fine, but not amazing.
It will be tough to prioritize Maheshate over the obvious big-man finishers in this range, or Perez. Paying up for more win equity with Onama and Lipski makes sense too.
So I think Benitez falls into that second tier of options with a fighter like Tim Means, who still have realistic paths to winning but probably will be overlooked by the field.
He’s still a fighter worth considering – his last three wins have come by KO in round one, and Maheshate can be hurt. It’s more of a “flier” than an outcome you should expect, but Benitez has finishing equity.
He’s just a lower priority than others on the slate for me, and likely for the public as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Maheshate by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)