UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira (6/15/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira
Fight Odds: Taira -200, Perez +170
Odds to Finish: -280
DraftKings Salaries: Taira 8.6k, Perez 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
Coming off his first UFC victory in four years, Alex Perez will make a quick return to the Octagon to headline this weekend’s card against the dangerous young grappler Tatsuro Taira.
Perez has notably had issues both in-fight and pre-fight for some time now, and it’s led to a laundry list of canceled bouts. Pair that with his recent three-fight skid, and many were left wondering whether Perez had anything left in the tank.
As someone who once thought of Perez as a title hopeful, it was pretty discouraging to see him make some mistakes, and fail to make it to the cage.
However, he showed some heart and toughness against Muhammad Mokaev in March, losing a close decision after multiple years on the shelf. And then in a glorious moment, Perez knocked out Matheus Nicolau in April to pull off a main event upset.
Fortunately, we were backing Perez in that spot as Nicolau had shown previous durability question marks, and had failed to consistently produce offense in rounds for much of his career.
This will be a completely different test against Taira, who is a grappling and back-taking specialist, and will want to ground Perez for the majority of the fight.
Taira is 24 years old, and he’s never lost, with a 15-0 professional record, that includes five victories in the UFC.
Taira is an athletic flyweight with good distance management, and he generally works all the way on the outside, or all the way on the inside.
His distance game is still a work-in-progress though, and he’s only topped 15 distance strikes one time. He’ll generally throw a rear kick, and a hard right hand, but he’s primarily a single shot guy and his aim is usually to use the striking to set up grappling entries.
He has shown some power elements, but I would say the better aspect of Taira’s striking is that he has not really allowed much to come his way in return. He currently lands 3.51 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing only 1.15 per minute.
If he can continue to limit engagements and work a grappling game on his terms, Taira will be tough to beat.
However, there are a few potential questions and or red flags with Taira.
The primary concern for me is his level of competition. He has fought Carlos Candelario, CJ Vergara, Jesus Aguilar, Edgar Chairez and Carlos Hernandez. These are fighters who you compete against to determine whether you belong in the UFC, while Perez is someone you fight to determine whether you belong at the top of your division.
It’s just a completely different level of opposition, in some ways. Several of those names I would not even qualify as being “good”, let alone a real challenge for Taira. They’re all poor wrestlers, and poor athletes, with little power.
Another concern I have is that although Taira has limited striking engagements, he’s still defending strikes at 47 percent. And despite almost never getting hit, he was knocked down by Chairez in their fight.
I have potentially major concerns for Taira if he is forced to box with someone competent for an extended period. He might do well to limit exchanges there still but it’s hard to favor him to produce lots of volume, and I worry he could get hurt.
I also have some concerns with the fact that Candelario took him down twice and reversed him three times. It was in his debut, and Taira still won the fight, but Candelario is a pretty low-level grappler and I didn’t think Taira looked great on the bottom.
Against a good wrestler, I worry that Taira could get stuck on the bottom or wear down to the point of vulnerability.
All this to say, I don’t think Taira is a fully polished prospect. He has some developing left to do, but we haven’t fully seen him tested so I think as he continues to get steps up in competition, we’ll learn more.
For now, I highly respect his back taking game and he’s very strong from top position. He’s a good wrestler, and is averaging 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I think he’ll continue to have ground success.
Without dominating from top position though, I am a bit skeptical of whether he will hold up.
It’s fair to wonder exactly how Perez will match up with Taira, given my analysis, and ultimately, I guess we’ll find out on Saturday.
Projecting Taira to have some ground success makes sense though. Perez is defending takedowns at a very strong 82 percent, but he still got taken down by Mokaev and Pantoja, and gave up his back.
Perez comes from a wrestling background which will aid him in defense, but it usually means he’ll give up his back to scramble free. It’s very fair to believe Taira can turn a takedown or two into a back-take, and that could lead to a dominant exchange.
Pantoja submitted Perez with a neck crank from the back in the first round, and I definitely think Taira has submission upside as well. Perez also made a glaring mistake against Figueiredo that got him subbed early.
I don’t have a ton of confidence that Perez will escape if Taira is locked in on the back, which I expect him to get to at least once, if not more. He could also use those body triangles to just control Perez, and win rounds. We’ve also seen him do damage from the top and I think it’s possible that Perez just simply can’t escape once Taira has him entangled.
With that said, Mokaev went 3/20 on takedowns. I sort of doubt Taira can attempt takedowns at that kind of volume.
I also think Perez is a better boxer on the inside, and may pose a threat to Taira, especially if he’s tired. Perez has also won fights via leg kicks, and chopping at Taira’s lead leg makes a lot of sense here.
Perez can also wrestle offensively. It probably won’t be a part of his game plan early, but he does land 2.06 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a dangerous front headlock choking series. It’s possible he could get on top of Taira at points.
Essentially, I think Taira has grappling domination upside, but grappling domination may also be the only way in which he wins.
If Perez can break free of Taira’s grip, force a lot of scrambles, or force him to box, I definitely think there’s potential for Perez to flip the momentum and maybe even finish the fight.
Taira feels somewhat likely to have grappling success while he is fresh though, and I’m open to the idea that he just takes that early success and turns it into a win. This is a good test and a matchup I’m looking forward to.
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On DraftKings, Taira is the preferred target at 8.6k due to his grappling based style.
He doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the world because he hasn’t thrown a ton of ground strikes, and most of his wins come past the first round. But he’s so dependent on grappling, and now he’ll get five rounds to work with.
That’s why we’ve already seen scores of 97, 107, 103, 99 and 102, and without having lost in the UFC yet, the public will probably be drooling at these numbers.
He’s also never been priced below 9k, and for his last three fights, Taira has been priced at 9.4k or above. So getting him at 8.6k in a main event feels cheap, and I will project a very strong floor and ceiling for him in a win.
Ultimately, that’s why Taira is preferred in this matchup. He’s -130 to win ITD against an opponent who has been submitted early a couple times. He’s a grappling dominator, with five rounds to work. And he’s only 8.6k.
I think Taira is a clear cut cash game option and also one of the top overall tournament targets on the slate. My guess is that he’ll be extremely popular this weekend, but he’s hard to avoid and I’ll be targeting him moderately/heavily.
Perez is the trickier fighter to analyze at 7.6k, but he’s definitely in play.
Primarily, I think he’s in play because he can win. There are some questions with Taira and although there’s reason to like him in this matchup, it’s possible Perez is just too big of a step up too soon.
So if Perez wins, you’re getting a 7.6k dog hit, while wiping out a large percentage of the field on Taira.
The issue is that this is not a good matchup for Perez to score. As an example, despite losing a close decision to Mokaev, Perez only put up 22 points. That’s because he was primarily forced to defend, and break free of control, and he wasn’t really able to mount much offense.
I can see a very similar situation here, where Taira does not absorb strikes at a high rate, and it’s possible Perez isn’t looking to grapple offensively either. So we could see a situation where the fight is “competitive” but Perez has just not produced a lot of offense.
I suppose he could still flip the momentum on his head and win by TKO. Maybe it could come early. His ITD line dropped from +195 to +300 in the last couple of days, which is weird. I do think there’s some finishing equity here.
For the price, and the leverage, I do like Perez some. But his floor is extremely low, and there are ways for him to underperform in a win, if that win comes later in the fight while he hasn’t produced much offense prior. Imavov just scored 89 points in a RD 4 KO last week, for example.
Use Perez as a secondary/leverage target this week but don’t be afraid to pivot away in some spots for more finishing upside in large fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Taira by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
FIGHT CANCELED – Ikram Aliskerov vs. Antonio Trocoli
Fight Odds: Aliskerov -1626, Trocoli +900
Odds to Finish: -1200
DraftKings Salaries: Aliskerov 9.7k, Trocoli 6.5k
Weight Class: 185
THIS FIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELED – Aliskerov will replace Khamzat Chimaev against Robert Whittaker in the main event in two weeks.
With back-to-back first-round KOs, Ikram Aliskerov has cemented himself as one of the brighter prospects in the middleweight division, and he’ll get a chance to keep his hype train rolling on Saturday against the debuting Antonio Trocoli.
Aliskerov is 15-1 professionally, earning six wins by knockout and five by submission.
His lone loss came at the hands of Khamzat Chimaev, who knocked him out cold in 2019.
Otherwise, Aliskerov has been pretty dominant. He looks like a legit prospect to me, though I reserve the right to change that opinion once I see more from him in the Octagon.
Aliskerov can wrestle really well. Maybe not as well as the best of the best in this promotion, but he’s a quality grappler, with a good double leg and great body lock takedowns.
On the mat, he can advance position well, and he seems to be a kimura specialist, as he’s won with that method in three of his last four regional bouts. It’s not my favorite submission to be honest, but generally speaking his submission grappling looks strong and I’d guess he’ll be a real threat against any average or worse opponent.
Aliskerov also looks competent on the feet. I would prefer that he grapple, but he can box a little bit and kick a little bit. Clearly, his power has translated well to the UFC, but it should be noted that both Phi Hawes and Warlley Alves have some durability issues.
I don’t have a super strong opinion. He can probably compete with average opposition but I wouldn’t bet on him to beat great competition just yet.
His durability makes me a little nervous but also Chimaev hits very hard, so losing by KO to him doesn’t tell me Aliskerov is doomed or anything.
Ultimately, Aliskerov looks to be a well-rounded prospect with finishing ability, though I don’t necessarily expect him to keep winning inside of two minutes.
He’ll be taking on the debuting Antonio Trocoli this weekend, who is 12-3 professionally at age 33, earning three wins by KO and five by submission.
Trocoli is a tough fighter to analyze. He has fought twice since 2018. The most recent appearance was three years ago against some scrub who Trocoli choked out quickly.
Prior to that, he actually earned a contract on DWCS in 2019 with another quick sub, but tested positive for anabolic steroids afterward and was released from the UFC.
Prior to that, Trocoli won a couple of regional fights by decision which are not viewable.
Prior to that, Trocoli was fighting really strong competition in Legacy FC, but that was in 2016. He lost decisions there to UFC vets Dhiego Lima and Jacob Volkmann. Then he has several wins prior to that but they were in 2014 so it barely matters.
From what I can tell, Trocoli is a mixed bag, but he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and that seems to be his strength. He’s also super tall for the division at 6’5” and I’m sure that will be talked about a ton. He’ll be five inches taller than Aliskerov with six extra inches of reach.
My guess at this point is that his grappling is good enough to beat weak competition, but I doubt his ceiling is much better than that. I haven’t seen anything to suggest he’s a very technical wrestler, and he’s probably defensively liable.
He’s largely survived all his fights though, with the exception of one TKO loss which was a RD 2 retirement, so honestly, he might be good enough to hang around for a while in fights.
His length could definitely pose a problem for some on the feet. He just doesn’t seem to be a major power threat, and I wouldn’t bet on great minute winning ability. But I’ve seen very little helpful tape and am open to changing my mind once we gather more data.
For what it’s worth, Trocoli was dating Mackenzie Dern for much of this year but it looks like they disappeared off each other’s Instagram, so maybe they’re officially over.
As far as the matchup, I have to bet on what I’ve seen and what I’ve seen is that Aliskerov is a well-rounded prospect with strong grappling. That should be enough to control Trocoli if necessary.
I can’t say for sure how easy a finish would be though. I don’t want him on the bottom attempting kimuras, and maybe Trocoli’s BJJ is good enough to survive for a while.
On the feet, Aliskerov is good but he’s gonna be so much smaller. I think he’s better outright technically but it’s possible Trocoli’s muay thai is fine and he can hang around there too. His durability also hasn’t been broken so there’s no reason to believe Aliskerov quickly knocks him out.
The betting line is a bit weird to me because we just don’t have a large sample of data, and Trocoli is HUGE, and has mostly been fighting at light heavyweight recently. So although I favor Aliskerov and have no reason to pick Trocoli, it is possible that this fight doesn’t play out as simply as the betting line suggests.
But I’ll favor Aliskerov to land some takedowns and grind Trocoli out. Maybe Trocoli is just defensively void on the feet and Aliskerov can find another early KO but it’s hard to project that outcome at an extremely high rate.
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On DraftKings, Aliskerov is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.7k, which I guess is fair as he’s lined north of -1500 to win currently.
If you can afford him, he’s worth considering. He’ll have the best ITD line on the slate as well at -1000, and based on these metrics, the expectation is a total smash.
I am a little nervous that he hasn’t attempted a TD in the UFC yet though. You probably don’t want to be paying this price if Aliskerov is just going to swing for an early KO. That outcome is possible would provide a lower ceiling, and more bust risk.
And if you can’t afford him, that’s fine too. There are other big favorites on this slate worth pivoting to, which we’ll touch on throughout the article, and there’s merit to creating more mid-range constructions as well.
I’m also just a little worried this betting line is way out of hand, as Trocoli has really never been finished. But Aliskerov in theory has a very strong floor and ceiling in a win based on his style, with grappling equity, and is a very viable option in all formats.
It will be interesting to see exactly how popular he is based on these crazy metrics, though 9.7k is a tough price to pay and there are other finishers in this range. My guess is that Aliskerov will find a finish somewhere along the way but I don’t think I’ll be paying up for him as frequently as the field.
Trocoli at 6.5k doesn’t interest me outside of a small percentage dart throw.
I honestly think he’s a better dart throw than Butler was last week, just because we have less data here and it’s a much bigger weight class.
But unless Trocoli randomly hurts Aliskerov, or gets on top of him somehow and finds a choke, it’s hard to expect much offensive production. He is huge though, and maybe that plays a role.
There are just better underdogs with more win equity and more reasonable paths to victory that we should be prioritizing. So outside of a very small percentage punt, I will be passing on Trocoli this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aliskerov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida
Fight Odds: Cuamba -195, Almeida +160
Odds to Finish: -185
DraftKings Salaries: Cuamba 8.8k, Almeida 7.4k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random fight here in the featherweight division between Lucas Almeida and Timmy Cuamba.
Almeida is a very aggressive striker. He knocked out Mike Trizano in his UFC debut and showed that he is dangerous on the feet. In the regionals, he basically showed the same aggressive striking skillset. He generally just wildly marched down his opponents and finished them. I think he is dangerous and can win some fun wars or win by knockout at this level.
Almeida has that classic Thai kickboxing style. He will throw all limbs. He is hittable though. He lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.32 in return. He was knocked out against Andre Fili in his most recent matchup and Trizano dropped him as well.
Almeida also struggles defensively as a wrestler. He was taken down a couple of times by Daniel Zellhuber. He was also taken down by Nico Coccuccio on the regionals. Those fights were about 2-3 years ago. He was also dominated by Pat Sabatini in the UFC. Good grapplers can surely have success against Almeida.
Almeida will be taking on Timmy Cuamba. Cuamba made his UFC debut in February, dropping a close decision to Bolaji Oki. Cuamba only landed 33 significant strikes in that fight and only landed 43 on the Contender Series which I didn’t love.
Cuamba is at least technical on the feet though. He is decent and has some sharp hands at times. I just don’t like his volume all that much though and sometimes he just fights in sparring mode too much. I consider him decent defensively though.
Cuamba can also wrestle a bit. He didn’t attempt a takedown on the Contender Series but did attempt six against Oki. I don’t really consider him a strong wrestler or submission grappler, but he is okay.
Cuamba is just mediocre. He is alright defensively. He can also fight in all areas. He just isn’t great at anything and doesn’t seem to score consistent offense.
This looks like a competitive fight on paper. I think Cuamba probably has more paths to victory. I think if someone has wrestling success here, it will probably be Cuamba. So favoring him for that upside seems reasonable.
I still just hate the volume of Cuamba and I arguably favor Almeida standing based on volume and activity. It is still competitive standing though, and I think both guys are capable of hurting one another.
This is just a close one. I think you can go with either guy. I am going to pick Almeida just because I think the line is a tad too wide here as Almeida is fully capable of winning this fight.
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On DraftKings, I do not expect this to be a popular public matchup, despite the decent -185 odds for it to end inside the distance.
Cuamba is priced up to 8.8k, and had an underwhelming UFC debut, though it was on short notice and up a weight class. Now, he’s fighting an opponent who has defensive issues, both on the feet and on the mat, and it surely seems like a more favorable matchup for Cuamba than what he was tasked with in that debut.
And that’s really the upside case. Almeida has been hurt multiple times, and he’s been outgrappled a bunch of times. Cuamba is very likely more technical here, more durable, and the better wrestler.
Cuamba hasn’t been the best finisher though, even on the regional scene, and I sorta marked him as a better round winner than finisher when I wrote him up last time. So my concern is that he fights more defensively sound, extends the fight, and wins rounds without putting up a huge ceiling.
He is +130 to win ITD which is still pretty good, and I could see him hurting Almeida. He also has wrestling equity, though I’m not sure he will dominate even if he gets the fight on the ground.
It just feels like a bit of a risk to invest heavily here and he’s definitely more expensive than I’d like to pay. With Taira and Ulanbekov surrounding him in price, I think Cuamba gets completely overlooked this week, and he’ll just fall into the contrarian category.
This isn’t a fighter I feel super great about, though I can acknowledge the upside on paper and if he does come in low owned, he’ll rate out fine as a contrarian target. There are other semi-contrarian targets I like more though, and ultimately, I will likely end up light on Cuamba this week.
Almeida at 7.4k is viable. He could theoretically win a striking based fight, and he has some finishing equity at +275 ITD.
But I don’t think he has much wrestling equity, and his lack of defense scares me. He’s not a prospect I want to buy into long term.
At this kind of price tag, sure, you can consider him as a secondary option or salary saver. He’s definitely a step up from the very bottom tier who are largely boom or bust.
There’s not a ton of reasons to be confident in Almeida though, and I do question the ceiling a little bit against a more defensively competent opponent. I likely won’t have a ton of exposure but he’s viable for the price.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cuamba by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Miles Johns
Fight Odds: Johns -138, Andrade +120
Odds to Finish: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Andrade 8.2k, Johns 8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Miles Johns is a Contender Series alum who’s had an interesting run so far in the UFC but appears to be coming into his own – he’s 5-2 in the promotion and 14-2 as a pro. Douglas Silva de Andrade is entering his 11th year on the roster where age hasn’t held him back, winning three of his last four fights – he’s 7-5 in the UFC and 29-5 as a pro.
The striking component:
Johns is a shorter, more compact 135er, standing 5’7 with a 66” reach.
He fought essentially the same way throughout his career as he likes to play the outside, and rope-a-dope guys. He’s got a good jab, lead hook and leg kick but he’s not much of an extended combo striker and it’s largely single or two-shot combos.
But in playing the outside largely well, he still can and will go backwards for large chunks of his fights, which isn’t great optically, especially if he’s fighting better strikers.
Johns has been lower output as well, landing 3.28 sig. strikes per minute at 47% and a little over 4.0 distance strikes per minute. He was higher output against ADS in that outing but ADS got his leg compromised early, making him a complete punching bag for the rest of the fight. He was then lower volume against Bautista, Castaneda and Morales.
Then was more into the average pace against Natividad and Argueta who largely just walked into shots – somewhat similar story last out against Gibson.
His defensive numbers are solid though, only eating 2.55 sig. strikes per minute, and defending at 68% with a positive distance differential of +1.38/minute, so he has also been efficient on the feet.
However, I think those might be a bit more optimistic than what his true defensive acumen is though, given some of the grinding in his fights and more hesitant opponents – he did struggle with the range game of Bautista a bit and got smoked with a flying knee – also ultimately succumbed to pressure against Castaneda despite a good early start.
He also fought Adrian Yanez back in LFA, a title fight that went five rounds and he largely wore Yanez’s shots well, squeaking a decision. I thought he lost personally, but it’s a pretty good feather in his cap given the prospect Yanez is, nonetheless.
Overall, I’ve never been the biggest fan of Johns’ style, but I have to give him his due because he has made it largely work for him. He just has a way of lulling guys into these slower paced affairs and then when they get frustrated, he counters them coming in. Despite his lower volume nature, he’s outpaced his opponents in 6/7 wins (including DWCS and the NC unofficial win over Argueta).
Andrade looks like he was built in a lab in Sao Paulo – just shredded.
He’s fought the majority of his career at 135lbs and tested his luck up at 145lbs recently, but was undersized for the weight class – he’s back at 135lbs now.
He’s another one of these guys who isn’t the most technical striker in the world but what he does has largely proven to be effective. His only losses are to Rob Font, Petr Yan (both top 10 135ers in the world), Murphy who now ranked at145lbs and Nurmagomedov who’s a good striker.
The commonality in those losses was that he just didn’t have the technical boxing prowess to keep up with them.
He did get outstruck by Murphy and got his leg chewed up, but gave him a good scrap and had some success in his own right despite losing a UD. He’s not the consistent stalking type necessarily (although has been at times), but everything he throws is with intent.
In that, he’s been able to have a lot of success hurting fighters, even in those single shots – then blitzing – but he’s largely a 1-2 shot guy.
We saw him hurt Morozov significantly multiple times and eventually put him down. He lands 3.66 SLpM at 38% — numbers that won’t blow your hair back.
His main issue is his defensive striking as he absorbs 3.99 sig. strikes per minute at 58%.
He won’t move his head when he throws and largely just sticks his chin up in the air; however, he will keep a higher guard at range and can manage distance at points, but it does break down.
In general, the guy is tough as nails and has been incredibly durable, but Morozov did nearly get him out of there early in the 1st, and he was recently dropped by Stamann which isn’t the best of looks.
It’s ultimately been when he’s been able to dictate pace and land the bigger shots is when he’s successful.
Overall, he’s largely outstruck the guys he was supposed to and lost to the ones he wasn’t.
How it plays out: I wouldn’t put Johns on the striking level of the guys who have beaten Andrade, but he does play a game on paper that should give Andrade some issues. Andrade is the more willing party to engage but just lunging into striking against Johns tends to not be a very effective tool because he just counters or shoots. Johns is the better defensive striker of the two, but Andrade is a weird guy with sneaky power at times who kind of just hangs around in fights to where he’s always in them.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Johns comes from a wrestling background where he was a high school state champion in his native Kansas but I’m unsure of his BJJ credentials.
However, he’s struggled in terms of securing takedowns in the UFC, only landing 1.15 TDs per 15 minutes at 22% but he will grind against the cage. Despite his background, he’s not traditionally diving on legs for 15 minutes in every matchup – he has been proactive in the last two outings though.
His TDD is solid at 85% but he’s actually gotten his back taken multiple times in both the Santiago and Smith fights – he’ll get sloppy at times.
Specifically in the Smith fight, he got stuck against the cage for quite a few minutes and Smith had his back for a good chunk of the first round. To his credit, even in being in bad spots, he’s shown good hand fighting abilities and has been able to avoid subs in those spots. He also fought hands well against Argueta and Gibson who got to his back and threatened some stuff early.
I say all the time though that if someone finds themselves in these bad spots, it catches up to them at some point. It ultimately did against Castaneda who despite not landing conventional TDs, was able to get on top of Johns at multiple points and finish him off in the 3rd.
It was in three of the fights I just referenced that we saw Johns’ cardio dump but he’s also effectively fought through fatigue in other outings, making his cardio just difficult to gauge at this point.
Overall, despite his base, I still don’t overtly rate the offensive wrestling of Johns that much but he is capable.
Andrade isn’t much of a wrestler, only landing 0.61 TDs per 15 minutes at 46%. In the times he’s been able to get into top position, he’s struggled with control. He did take the back of Murphy but also got his hooks cleared pretty quickly.
He was able to submit Morozov but that was also a large product of Morozov being hurt and not having his wits about him, in comparison to Andrade really out-grappling him.
Defensively, he stuffs at 70% which is respectable. However, he has lost fights against Yan and Tukhugov where there was a wrestling component – no shame in those losses as both are good wrestlers.
But the Barao and Murphy fights are important as well as Andrade couldn’t stand up on any of those three TDs landed against him.
He got controlled in the 1st against Morozov as well after he was hurt, did work up eventually but did get taken down again at the end of the round ending on bottom.
But in general, he can limit damage on the bottom in most instances. He was guillotined by Font though which needs to be noted.
Overall, the ground’s more of a weakness for Andrade but he is competent in the grappling.
How it plays out: As noted, it’s tough to trust Johns to wrestle in volume but he is the better offensive wrestler of the two here. Can he hold a guy like Andrade down for extended minutes? Probably not and it’s doubtful he submits him, but he has it as an option to break pressure in this fight. It’s tough to project much offensive upside from Andrade considering he’s not consistent to wrestle and Johns has pretty good TDD. There could be some merit to him getting on top if he hurts Johns or Johns slows down though.
Weird fight between two guys I haven’t been particularly high on but have outperformed my expectations in multiple spots over the years. The fight profiles as an okay one for Johns but as noted, Andrade has a style that always gives him a good floor and it’s always hard for to unsee the handful of times Johns has essentially collapsed – you don’t want to show many signs of weakness against a guy like Andrade because he’ll come after you. My pick will still be Johns because I consider him as the better fighter with more PTVs – who’s also 30 years old versus Andrade who turns 39 next week with potentially faltering durability.
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On DraftKings, this is one of my least favorite fights on the slate, though I wouldn’t rule it out from a large field perspective.
I just don’t like either fighter and have never really had interest in backing either fighter from a fantasy standpoint. Johns can wrestle some, but he’s fairly low-volume and has minimal finishing equity.
Andrade is just a brute force type who’s technique I don’t love, but he can sometimes hurt his opponents.
The scary part is that Johns has been dropped in both of his UFC losses, and Andrade has been dropped in two of his last three fights. Some random KO variance is definitely on the table.
Johns is also going to be a clear value on DK at 8k, as a -140 favorite, and I think he’ll be higher owned for that purpose. However, I don’t think he’s going to have a ton of success grappling, and I really don’t want to bet on him to win by KO. He’s only +400 to win ITD.
Perhaps using him for the value, plus mild wrestling equity is enough to make him viable in smaller contests.
Andrade on the other hand is now overpriced at 8.2k, as a +120 dog, but he’s shockingly only +200 to win ITD. If those numbers hold, I’d argue Andrade is the superior play, for pure KO upside, and he could be mild leverage as well.
I don’t think either side will be too popular though, as neither is a stand out fantasy target, and I wouldn’t mind coming in light overall with a more limited portfolio.
In large fields, I’d consider both low-end secondary mix-ins. Just getting around the field percentage, which shouldn’t be incredibly high, and not letting this fight kill you.
There are so many other fights and fighters I prefer on this slate, but it’s not impossible to see someone get hurt, so mix them in a bit if you wish.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johns by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson
Fight Odds: Almabayev -615, Johnson +440
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Almabayev 9.5k, Johnson 6.7k
Weight Class: 125
I’ve been very impressed with the short UFC career of Asu Almabayev and I’m looking forward to his return against Jose Johnson this weekend.
Almabayev is 19-2 professionally at age 30, and he’s earned three wins by knockout and nine by submission.
He is a processed grappler, which is my favorite style to back, and I expect him to continue to have success in this division.
Almabayev is a bit small, but I think he’s a strong technical wrestler and grappler, and he has cardio to fight for a hard 15 minutes. That’s going to give him a strong floor per round, especially against any defensively questionable opponents.
Thus far, Almabayev has beaten Ode Osbourne and CJ Vergara, two mediocre opponents. He took down and controlled Osbourne before RNC’ing him in the second round, and then he took Vergara down nine times en route to a clear decision.
Those are two things that impress me. Getting takedowns, taking the back and locking in the RNC is probably the most preferred method of victory. It shows a strong process and is the most replicable type of finish.
And then shooting for 14 takedowns over 15 minutes, landing nine of them, and continuing to press forward shows offensive production upside, as well as strong cardio.
There’s an argument to make that Almabayev isn’t highly developed outside of these aspects, but as far as his wrestling and grappling, I think he’s very strong.
As far as his striking, I have some concerns. He has been throwing a lot of spinning attacks both outside and inside the UFC, which I hate. They don’t land often, and it can put you in danger defensively.
He still has absorbed only 1.42 sig. strikes per minute and went toe-to-toe with Vergara on the feet, so I think while fights play out upright, Almabayev can survive. But I don’t think he’ll clearly be winning and it will be a means to an end which is ultimately his grappling.
Eventually, my guess is we’ll see Almabayev hit a ceiling where he cannot easily control opponents, and his game might break down from there. He does have one TKO loss on the regionals but that came against Tagir Ulanbekov in 2017, so it’s forgivable.
For now, I’ll be backing Almabayev against any opponent with grappling question marks.
Enter Jose Johnson, a tall, long bantamweight who will be dropping to flyweight for this bout.
Johnson is 6’0” which is huge for this division, but I doubt it will matter.
Johnson is 16-8 professionally at age 29, and he’s earned eight wins by KO and three by submission.
He’s a competent striker and submission grappler, but his wrestling holes have been a major problem.
Granted, this is at bantamweight, but he was taken down 12 times by Ronnie Lawrence on DWCS, and six times by Jack Cartwright.
Then he made his UFC debut against Da’Mon Blackshear, who took him down and submitted him with a Twister in round one.
Most recently, he went back and forth on the mat with Chad Anheliger, and ultimately won by submission late in the third round. That was after getting taken down another four times though, which brings his overall defensive total to 36%.
Johnson simply struggles to defend takedowns. I do wonder whether being massive at flyweight will help him, but my guess is that it will not.
If anything, Almabayev should have an easier time getting in on the hips of Johnson, though it’s possible he struggles to pick him up and dump him down.
I just have to trust the offensive wrestling skills of Almabayev here. He’s technical, and composed, and willing to fight hard for a long period of time.
That should be enough to control Johnson and win rounds, or potentially submit him. Johnson has been submitted four times, which is not a great sign. He did get his brown belt a few months ago though, and his base level of jiu-jitsu seems fine.
I am slightly worried about Almabayev not having the tools to finish Johnson. If that happens and the fight extends, it simply leaves more openings for Johnson to mount a comeback.
That would likely come in the form of striking, where he’ll be six inches taller with a six-inch reach advantage. While Almabayev has stayed safe in exchanges, I don’t see him landing a ton of shots on the outside and he could be vulnerable at times.
Johnson can also attempt to wrap up his neck, though at this moment I have faith in Almabayev to scramble free if necessary.
It’s really tough to look past the initial grappling control advantages for Almabayev, and he’ll be the clear favorite for me for this reason. Johnson at times has survived and scrambled up well, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Almabayev is forced to drag him down over and over.
—
On DraftKings, Almabayev is very expensive at 9.5k, but he’s one of the safest fighters on the card based on his style.
I just don’t see Almabayev wanting to strike in this matchup, and it’s not likely he has a ton of success there either. He just proven he’s willing to go back to the takedown over and over if necessary, and that might be what’s necessary here. If not, he’ll probably just win by submission.
Almabayev is -160 to win ITD which is pretty strong, but I don’t know how much it matters. His 2nd round submission scored 105 points, and his decision win scored 118 points.
Given how many times Johnson has been taken down recently, 5-10 takedowns are on the table, or a grappling based finish, and that will give Almabayev one of the highest floor/ceiling combinations in a win on this slate.
Yes, there is some risk he loses, but Almabayev is sitting north of -600 to win currently, so he’s going to rate out as a very safe option. He’ll be a strong consideration for me in cash games, as well as for tournaments when I have the salary.
The more difficult part is choosing whether to roster him, or Aliskerov, or Saragih, or Maness at the top, but I always lean toward grapplers. Those other choices very likely need an early KO to be optimal, which are fairly reasonable outcomes, but not guarantees.
Almabayev has paths to 100 points in any kind of finish, or by decision, and his upside is probably the highest overall given how aggressively he can grapple. So with that said, he’s one of my favorite plays on this card and I will likely target him aggressively.
Johnson at 6.7k doesn’t interest me too much.
There are ways for him to win and if you want to take a dart throw in large fields, that’s OK. But his floor is extremely low, and I worry that he’ll be held down for long periods of time even if he wins.
Johnson is +600 to win ITD which isn’t good, and Almabayev is tough to finish. There’s a lot of variance in MMA but with a limited portfolio, I don’t think I’ll be able to find my way to Johnson often or at all.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almabayev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Brady Hiestand vs. Garrett Armfield
Fight Odds: Armfield -182, Hiestand +156
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Armfield 8.7k, Hiestand 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Two mid-level fighters in Brady Hiestand and Garrett Armfield will square off this weekend in what feels like a pretty fair matchup.
I thought Garrett Armfield’s last win against Brad Katona was a good performance. Armfield minimized Katona’s grappling enough and outlanded Katona 105-64 in significant strikes to win a competitive decision.
Armfield is 10-3 professionally with most of his career coming in low to middle tier regional promotions. He lost his UFC debut to David Onama which there is no shame in, as Onama is tough and it was up a weight class. He then knocked out Toshiomi Kazama in round one, and most recently beat Katona as mentioned above.
Armfield comes from a golden gloves background, and I consider his boxing pretty good, especially early in fights. I have seen him put up a decent amount of volume and aggression early in fights. You did see that early blitz against Kazama too when he knocked him out. Armfield is capable of putting it on guys early.
Armfield also comes from a wrestling background, and I consider his wrestling and grappling okay. He is capable of landing some takedowns and floating in top position. I also think his wrestling defense is pretty good when he is fresh. He understands the basics of wrestling and defends takedowns at 64 percent.
Armfield has some issues though. I question Armfield’s cardio and ability later in fights. He doesn’t death gas or anything, but he does slow down a bit. He was competing fine in the striking with Ronnie Lawrence and stuffing his takedowns for a round or so. Eventually though, Armfield was pieced up and taken down / controlled in the latter portions of that fight once he tired out.
I also saw Armfield beat up Mateo Vogel on the feet for a round. However, Armfield then slowed and got taken down and submitted. He also lost round three against Katona.
I think Armfield is somewhat decent with boxing and his TDD when fresh. However, as the fight goes on he becomes a little more hittable and a little more likely to get taken down, and controlled or submitted. His cardio looked a little better vs Katona than it did on the regionals, but it is still a concern of mine.
Armfield will be taking on Brady Hiestand. Hiestand is young and only 25 years old. He made it to the finale of TUF season 1,257 and lost a split decision against Ricky Turcios. Hiestand landed six takedowns in that fight and got a lot of control, but Turcios rightfully won the decision as Turcios got the better of the striking exchanges and landed offense from bottom position.
Hiestand then outwrestled Fernie Garcia to a decision. He was then losing the entire fight to Danaa Batgerel, but got a finish via ground and pound with less than a minute on the clock. On the regionals and on TUF, Hiestand basically won fights by overwhelming opponents with wrestling.
Hiestand is SUPER aggressive and tenaciously shoots takedowns for 15 minutes. He lands 4.06 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is decent on top and can advance position, threaten for finishes, and mat control a bit. I do think he grapples a bit chaotically which can open up scrambling opportunities for opponents. He can definitely outgrapple below-average grapplers in the UFC though. He also can just overwhelm people with his pace.
The issue is that Hiestand isn’t really good at anything else besides pace wrestling. On the feet, he basically comes forward and wings hooks in close range. He isn’t a technical striker at all and is SUPER hittable. He has been knocked out a couple of times and Turcios dropped him as well. He also got hurt by Batgerel and Garcia.
I don’t consider Hiestand’s actual durability all that bad as he seems like a tough kid who won’t back down. However, it is just that his style is risky and he opens himself up to big shots. He is definitely going to get knocked out a few times if he sticks around in the UFC.
As far as this matchup goes, Armfield is clearly a more dangerous and technical boxer. I honestly think he could knock Hiestand out, and I definitely think he will hurt Hiestand at some point. Armfield is just accurate and powerful and Hiestand just always manages to get hurt badly. I think Armfield will clearly get off to an early lead on the feet and obtain a knockout or get ahead on rounds. I am going to pick Armfield for those reasons.
I do think Hiestand can land takedowns later in this fight though. Hiestand has decent takedowns, and has cardio and tenacity. I think Hiestand landing takedowns is pretty realistic. I still think Armfield will defend and scramble up early in this fight though. However, if Armfield tires, I do think Hiestand could threaten here. So the fight is interesting for that reason.
Still though, Armfield is a better striker and good enough defensive grappler to get off to an early lead here so I think this is his fight to win, and I am going to pick him to get the win this weekend.
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On DraftKings, Armfield is one potentially sneaky option at 8.7k, though I’m not sure how much exposure I will end up with him.
He’s kind of just an average, semi well-rounded fighter, and I wouldn’t really want to bet on his finishing ability in a typical matchup. And this matchup against Hiestand isn’t even all that easy, as Hiestand can wrestle and has good cardio.
However, Hiestand has been hurt in basically every recent fight I’ve seen of his. I have backed this guy a lot because I love pace wrestling, and I still will, but I am extremely aware of the fact that he’s hittable and I feel a knockout loss is probably coming sooner or later.
Armfield isn’t the exact type of fighter who I would be confident would KO him, but it’s possible. For tournaments, I do have some interest in Armfield, with the hope that he’ll be overlooked.
He’s only +170 to win ITD and without an early KO I doubt he ends up optimal. The pacing of the fight should be good though, and I think a lot of ownership will be pulled away from him and toward Taira.
He seems like a decent tournament pivot and one I wouldn’t mind targeting, but he also won’t be my main priority in this range.
Hiestand at 7.5k is the type of fighter who I typically want to target every time.
He can wrestle in volume, and he’s tough with good cardio. It gives him a strong floor and ceiling in a win.
He is not great technically though, and I think I’m going to pick Armfield outright. Hiestand is also only +550 to win ITD.
I think Hiestand is a solid, standard, secondary option based on his style. We should be targeting wrestlers and Armfield has lost to grapplers before. Hiestand seemingly has a decent floor in a matchup that’s -150 to go the distance.
But I just don’t think it’s a great matchup and there are some other underdogs I would rather target for win equity and general upside. Hiestand is a good price and style play but I won’t aim to be much overweight.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Armfield by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Joshua Van
Fight Odds: Ulanbekov -220, Van +185
Odds to Finish: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Ulanbekov 8.9k, Van 7.3k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Russian prospect Tagir Ulanbekov is looking to continue his momentum against another hot prospect in Joshua Van this weekend.
Tagir has a lot of experience on the Russian circuit and is 15-2 professionally. Tagir is pretty well-rounded. He thrives mostly as a wrestler and he generally takes his opponents down and gets control on the mat. He lands 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Tagir has been able to land takedowns so far in the UFC. However, he has had issues with landing offense from top position and advancing position. I actually think his competition thus far has generally been good, and that he would have more success against lower-tier grapplers. Allan Nascimento and Bruno Silva are both BJJ black belts and have very good guards. So Tagir struggled to pass their guards a bit.
Tagir showed his BJJ more vs Elliott, Maness, and Durden. He got Elliott’s back in round three with a body triangle and dominated late in that fight. Furthermore, he also advanced position against Nate Maness and was able to get a guillotine. He also submitted Durden and advanced position easily.
Ulanbekov has an absolutely nasty guillotine which he showed against Maness and on the regional circuit. He nearly submitted Nascimento with it as well. Tagir actually has nine submissions in his career out of 15 wins, and I consider him a good submission grappler.
I also LOVE LOVE LOVE Tagir’s get up game. This guy has some of the best get-ups in all of the UFC. He surrendered some takedowns to Bruno Silva and Tim Elliott, and currently defends takedowns at 61 percent. However, I still consider his TDD fine and those guys obtained NO control on Tagir. His get up-game is seriously amazing. He also easily swept Durden the one time he ended up on his back.
Tagir is a competent striker. He has a decently long frame for flyweight at 5’7” with a 70-inch reach, and he’s a skilled boxer, particularly with his long punches. He almost outlands everyone to the head, and I also like his cardio. He can wrestle and strike hard for 15 minutes. His volume is concerning though and only lands 3.22 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.30.
Tagir will be taking on rising prospect Joshua Van. I was actually impressed with Joshua Van’s last performances against Kevin Borjas and Felipe Bunes. Van won by decision against Borjas and put on a high striking pace, and landed 156 significant strikes.
He also gas pedaled Felipe Bunes and finished him with a high striking pace. Van’s UFC debut came one fight before that one against Zhalgas Zhumagulov where Van won a close decision and landed 120 significant strikes.
I liked the dosage of strikes by Van in those fights and that is what Van does best. He is a volume striker and will strike with a very high pace for 15 straight minutes. He lands 9.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.77 in return, and actually defends strikes at a solid 60 percent rate.
Van is overall just a pretty skilled striker. He mixes up kicks with his boxing and he works the body well with his hands. He can have success at range in this division. I also consider Van durable as well, and I haven’t really seen him hurt before and he has never been knocked out.
I have also seen Van mix in takedowns here and there. He isn’t a good wrestler, but he honestly isn’t bad, and he can get good positions on the mat after tiring his opponents.
Van’s defensive grappling looks to be his biggest issue. His one loss came a little over two years ago. He was generally outwrestled and submitted by a RNC in the third round. He is only 22 years old now and was only 20 in that fight, and he has clearly improved though. He still was mounted at one point vs Felipe Bunes and surrendered two takedowns in that fight. Bunes just gassed out clearly.
I just really question Van’s defensive grappling going up against a guy like Ulanbekov. Ulanbekov is BY FAR the best wrestler and grappler that Van has faced. I honestly think Ulanbekov can dominate on the mat here. I have seen Van mounted and taken down too many times against lesser competition. Van even tired in that fight where he got submitted.
I also think Ulanbekov will not gas out like Van’s last opponent. I think Ulanbekov can land takedowns here and probably submit Van. That is what I am going to pick to happen.
If this fight plays out on the feet for any reason though, I honestly would favor Van. Ulanbekov is still competent on the feet and I do think he can compete or maybe win an early round or something. However, Van just puts up so much volume and pressure that I think I would favor him there.
Still though, Ulanbekov has taken down every opponent in his UFC career and Van is arguably the worst grappler Ulanbekov has faced in the UFC. I think Ulanbekov will probably land an early takedown here, realize he has the advantage, and then grapple consistently and eventually finish Van on the mat.
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On DraftKings, I like the binary aspect of this fight and my assumption is that it will end up as one of the more popular matchups on this slate.
There isn’t a ton of name value this week, but Ulanbekov trains with that Khabib/Makhachev camp, and Van has been one of the most entertaining prospects to join the UFC in the last year.
Ulanbekov is also now a solid value at 8.9k, as he’s been bet up to around the -220 range. Given his grappling style, and the matchup, I think ground domination is certainly in play.
That’s going to put me on Ulanbekov a fair bit. It just makes sense, though unfortunately he should gain a lot of public attention as well.
Not only does he save lots of salary from the top end, but he has a very strong floor/ceiling combination and carries some safety in the ML/style. He’s also +115 to win ITD which is a decent indicator of finishing equity too.
I’ll likely end up with a lot of exposure to Ulanbekov this week, all things considered. There are multiple interesting pivots in this range though, and depending on your construction, that will be a viable choice as well.
But Ulanbekov rates out pretty well for 8.9k and he’s an easy target to prioritize.
Van at 7.3k is definitely on my radar, but I’m less certain how much exposure I will want.
The main problem is that he’s a sizable dog, in a matchup where he could just get held down and lose. And then there’s also a risk that a win for Van still comes with early ground struggles.
Really, unless Van wins by KO, I question his ceiling. And Ulanbekov is going to fight in a way that really limits Van’s potential.
The other side of the coin I guess is that Van has flashed a lot of upside within his striking style. Lots of volume. Threatening combinations. I do think he has both round winning and knockout potential. Even Tim Elliot knocked Ulanbekov down.
Van has scored 135, 106 and 80 in his three wins and despite the tough matchup, my guess is that he’ll be popular at this price. Potentially too popular for what he’s worth. He’s only +475 to win ITD.
You can definitely make the argument that coming in underweight on Van is the right call, given the matchup and potentially higher public ownership. Especially with a limited portfolio, that’s one route I would consider.
I also think Van could carry some leverage against Ulanbekov, in a matchup that’s binary enough to give him some upside. Should the fight stay standing, Van can and probably should win. He’s cheap, which is nice.
On pure face value, I have some interest in Van based on what he’s showed thus far, and I don’t want to completely count him out of this matchup. But this is not a case where I will try to force exposure, and I wouldn’t mind pivoting at a higher rate than the field in this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ulanbekov by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Jimmy Flick vs. Nate Maness
Fight Odds: Maness -545, Flick +400
Odds to Finish: -550
DraftKings Salaries: Maness 9.4k, Flick 6.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a really random matchup here between Nate Maness and Jimmy Flick. I can’t believe Maness is -600 in a UFC fight, but here we are.
A blue-collar fighter, Maness is now 4-2 in the UFC which is kind of nuts because he has basically come from behind in every fight that he has won.
I mostly consider Maness a sprawl and brawler. He looks to use his wrestling in reverse to keep the fight standing and hurt his opponents.
I actually consider Maness a pretty decent defensive grappler from a wrestling perspective. He has pretty decent first layer TDD and defends takedowns at 78 percent, and has pretty good balance to stay upright.
My issue with Maness is that his get-ups in bottom position are fucking terrible. Against Nurmagomedov, he was clueless in getting back to his feet. He reminds me of Edson Barboza where he has decent first layer tdd but once you start chaining takedowns and actually settle him on the mat, he is awful.
On the feet, Maness has been winning fights. However, I don’t consider him good as a striker. He has a decent jab with some decent power and counters. However, He only lands 2.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.29 in return. He is only defending strikes at 40 percent. He just isn’t good defensively and I think technical strikers will beat him pretty easily honestly.
Some people in the MMA betting community seem to think Maness is a good striker. However, I am not nearly as high on his striking as other people. You just can’t defend strikes at 40 percent and be good. He is dangerous and physical though and can hurt opponents.
Maness will be taking on Jimmy Flick. Flick is coming off a come from behind submission win against Malcolm Gordon which was cool to see.
We all know the drill with Flick. He is a very dependent submission grappler with no striking whatsoever. Anytime Flick is forced to strike, he generally gets beat up and knocked out. Striking is just not his thing.
Flick is also not a great pure wrestler and sometimes struggles landing takedowns. So it is a constant theme of him not being able to land takedowns and getting beat up on the feet.
Flick is very dangerous as a submission grappler though, and is tricky with his entanglements and sweeps. If he manages to get fights on the mat, he can absolutely threaten and submit people.
I do think Maness has enough counter grappling to minimize the takedowns of Flick and probably hurt Flick and finish him. So Maness should probably win this fight.
However, I still just think Maness is not very good and has won a lot of UFC fights that he shouldn’t have won. If Flick manages to get top position, I absolutely think he can make something happen here. I just don’t totally trust Maness once he is actually grounded. So Flick pulling off an upset wouldn’t surprise me.
Still though, Maness is big and physical and will probably keep this fight standing enough to hurt Flick, so I will pick Maness to win even if I think the line is too wide.
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On DraftKings, Maness is priced up to 9.4k and will be an extreme boom or bust target, but one that feels likely to hit.
Maness doesn’t have much grappling equity, and he throws strikes at a super low volume, so you’re extremely dependent on a quick KO. In that sense, I hate this play.
However, Flick is one of the only opponents in the division where the most likely projection for Maness would be a first-round KO. Flick has already retired from the sport once, and six of his seven pro losses have come by TKO.
This fight feels extremely binary as well. Either Flick will get on top and win by sub, or he’ll get hurt and finished. The fight is -550 to end ITD.
Maness at 9.4k is a fine tournament option all things considered. He’s -285 to win ITD and has a strong chance at a first-round KO. It’s quite possible he scores in the 100-110 range and contends for the optimal.
Just know that there is major downside risk. If the fight extends to round two, it’s probably a bust. If Flick decides to pull guard, Maness could get screwed out of knockdown points.
There are enough other strong options in this tier for me not to outright prioritize Maness, though having exposure to him makes sense and I am expecting a decent result.
Flick at 6.8k has some viability for his style. When he wins, it should come with an early submission. His two wins on DK have scored 93 and 79, which aren’t spectacular though, and that’s largely because he hasn’t been able to produce any offense prior to either submission.
This isn’t a great matchup, but Maness has been outgrappled in both of his UFC losses and he was subbed by Ulanbekov in round one. I do think Flick has a viable path to victory, and he’s +465 to win ITD.
I won’t play much Flick – just because he’s a very difficult fighter to trust and his game isn’t really processed. He’s also a huge dog. But I think there’s some punt viability in large fields and wouldn’t mind having a sprinkle of him in tournaments for the upside and leverage.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Maness by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt
Fight Odds: Quinlan -132, Fugitt +115
Odds to Finish: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Quinlan 8.3k, Fugitt 7.9k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Adam Fugitt is a fighter who’s in the UFC by proxy as he took a short notice debut against now surging prospect Michael Morales back in 2022 – he’ s 1-2 in the UFC and 9-4 as a pro. Josh Quinlan’s a Contender Series alum who made good on his opportunity back in 2021, but had some run ins with USADA – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 6-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Fugitt comes from a muay thai background where he likes to work in a forward pressure style. He’ll throw a healthy amount between punches and kicks, but it’s often not set up and his footwork can get sloppy – he’s also somewhat slow and plodding at times.
He had that big upset KO over Renfro back in LFA where he caught him with a big shot early but by and large, I don’t think Fugitt is much of a hitter.
Defensively, he really struggled with the straights and angles of Morales, getting outlanded to the head 74 to 32 before eventually getting put down in the 3rd.
He did eat a nasty head kick from Kinoshita but was also hurt to the body against Malott and was ultimately put down with a straight shot in the 2nd round, leading to the submission.
We also saw him brutally KO’d back in LFA and dropped again in another regional outing, so his general defense and durability isn’t particularly great at this point.
Overall, he’s a scrappy dude where his striking merit is in breaking guys, down but he’s a negative athlete and clearly struggling with more elusive/faster technical parties.
I’m unsure of Quinlan’s official striking background but he works in a more mid-range, tepid/blitz type of style with his hooks and outside leg kick being his best weapons.
He’s also shown power components, scoring KOs in 4/6 pro wins (technically 5 if you include his DWCS no contest).
I think he’s reasonably technical in his general striking approach, but I also don’t think his striking is anything special and isn’t the fastest guy in the world.
Defensively, he hadn’t fought many good strikers pre-UFC, so he largely looked decent, but we did see him get busted up a bit in his fight with Boerschig which was a bit alarming.
However, we saw him fight a respectable striker in his 2nd UFC outing where he essentially just got boxed up for 15 minutes by Waters. In fairness, Waters had a massive size advantage over him in that spot, but Waters also came in on a weeks’ notice and out landed him to the head 93 to 26. Quinlan just couldn’t get inside and got outworked.
Somewhat of a similar story in his last outing against Barlow where he again was on the end of a massive reach advantage and by in large got boxed up and eventually KOd – although Quinlan had pockets of success in the fight as well and landed some really clean shots on Barlow – he just struggled to string things together.
Overall, Quinlan’s gotten a bit exposed which wasn’t particularly shocking to me as I’ve always been lower on him. But he has had some tough matchups in fairness and is a guy who can excel in certain types of fights.
How it plays out: Quinlan will yet again be pitted against a long opponent in Fugitt who will realize a 5” reach edge in the matchup. However, Fugitt doesn’t have the speed, footwork, athleticism or defense of guys like Waters or Barlow so it’s not overtly parallel here. Fugitt fights in a way where he’s going to be far more available than both of those guys were. Also, due to Fugitt’s style, it’s going to realize Quinlan more output success than he’s had in the last two fights. I think Quinlan’s pretty live to put Fugitt down in this spot to be honest. But as noted, Fugitt’s a guy who will pressure and throw so I’d anticipate exchanges to be mildly competitive.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Fugitt comes from a wrestling background where he competed at a community college level and reps a BJJ brown belt.
His best work has primarily come on the ground when he’s been able to get to back ride on his opponents to land strikes or set up his submissions.
However, I don’t think his wrestling is anything special as I’ve seen him struggle to ground multiple guys, and he’s not very consistent.
He’s hit some nice reactionary shots like he did in his debut against Morales but by and large, his shots can be telegraphed and has often found himself grinding against the fence. He was able to get a bit of ride time there but only went 1/8 on TDs.
He was able to expose Kinoshita in this capacity though, ultimately finishing him with ground strikes, but Kinoshita was a base striker and a limited grappler.
Defensively, I haven’t seen many guys look to pursue TDs against him, but we did see Malott go 2/2 in the last outing. He was ultimately guillotined but that was a product of him getting hurt. I thought he looked fine in the conventional ground sequences that happened prior.
Overall, Fugitt falls into the capable ground fighter category where I wouldn’t consider him good, but he’s not poor either.
Quinlan is a BJJ black belt with 2/6 pro wins coming via submission.
However, we’ve seen very limited ground time in his fights.
He’s not a fighter consistent to shoot TDs and in a couple of his fights, they were grounded due to him dropping one guy with a leg kick and in another, he was actually taken down but reversed the position.
However, when he’s gotten into top positions, he’s looked strong in the ability to throw GNP and lock stuff up in limited sequences – granted against a lower level of competition.
He shot eight TDs against Waters but only got one, and didn’t do much with it. He fought Witt, who’s a respectable wrestler and Witt took him down once on two attempts, but Quinlan was able to work up relatively quickly.
Probably the more alarming fight was his last outing against Barlow where he only shot one through 11 minutes in a fight he was getting pieced up in – Barlow had shown some ground weakness in the past and Quinlan had very little interest in testing that.
Overall, it’s hard to really classify his ground game at this point because we just haven’t seen enough of it. From a wide view, he’ll most likely serve as a better jiu-jitsu guy than a wrestler.
How it plays out: The ground’s difficult to analyze because we’ve seen very little of both guys on the bottom. Both are capable of being taken down but tend to not stay there for very long. But from a pure upside standpoint, I’d side more with Fugitt because he’s shown a more consistent pursuit of the TD and general success rate throughout his career – he will also be the bigger guy of the two which could play a factor in physicality potentially.
I’m not a big fan of this fight considering I’ve never been high on either guy or really thought they were UFC level. So, we’re witnessing a high-level regional fight in the UFC on Saturday where the loser most likely gets cut as that would put their record at 1-3. In the defense of both, the UFC hasn’t done them many favors in terms of matchmaking – probably justifies my statement above. I’ll take the 31-year-old Quinlan over the 35-year-old Fugitt for the win.
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On DraftKings, this will probably be an overlooked mid-range fight that feels extremely gross to target, but probably has some upside.
Quinlan at 8.3k, would be my primary interest although I consider him extremely boom or bust. He does not have much grappling equity, and I don’t think his volume is special.
But he does hit very hard, and Fugitt has been knocked down three times in three fights. Quinlan is +135 to win ITD which is good for the price.
I really doubt the public will roster him that much. He rates out OK but his box score isn’t pretty. He’d only qualify as a secondary option due to the extreme boom or bust nature, but I do think this is a very clear step down in competition from his recent fights, and there’s a reasonable chance he can hurt Fugitt.
Fugitt at 7.9k has the style to score, which he proved with his 126 point performance against Kinoshita. He can wrestle and he might need 3-5 takedowns here to win.
I don’t really trust it though. I was on him in the fight he won, and have been on him mildly in other spots. He’s just not that good and he feels a little breakable.
It’s a fine play, and he’s +275 to win ITD. In theory there’s some finishing and grappling upside. I’m just not super confident about there being an actual ceiling, nor am I confident in his ability to wrestle to a win.
I’ll probably end up light on Fugitt overall there’s merit to mixing him in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Quinlan by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Carli Judice vs. Gabriella Fernandes
Fight Odds: Fernandes -159, Judice +137
Odds to Finish: +145
DraftKings Salaries: Fernandes 9k, Judice 7.2k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an extremely low-level fight here between Gabriella Fernandes and Carli Judice.
Fernandes has had two UFC fights against Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bleda. She was taken down three and four times and was basically held down for the entire fights, and lost decisions. I was extremely skeptical of Fernandes’ TDD and defensive wrestling before her UFC debut and bet against Fernandes in both of those fights, so I was not surprised by those outcomes.
Fernandes is 8-3 professionally, mostly beating awful competition. Fernandes is a striker. She is pretty physical and a decent athlete. She can land decently hard shots. Standing out of the southpaw stance, she always makes use of her rear kick, usually throwing it to the body. She has decent hands as well. She has pretty good range control and can strike going forward and backward.
Although Fernandes is a competent striker, I don’t think she is a world beater and she does have low output at times. She is also just untested in general so who knows how good of a striker she actually is. She does seem to have some power though.
Basically, I think Fernandes can probably win some striking fights in the UFC, but she will be outgrappled badly in other matchups. That is about it. Her game is pretty easy to break down.
Fernandes will be taking on Carli Judice who will be making her UFC debut. A Louisiana native, Judice is 3-1 professionally and is 25 years old.
Judice fought on the Contender Series and was actually awarded a contract in a loss. She lost a back and forth split decision in a fight that generally played out on the feet. Judice actually landed a whopping 168 significant strikes in that fight but she absorbed 184 in return which isn’t great.
The rest of Judice’s career has taken place on the regional scene against poor competition. I haven’t really seen a ton of her ground game defensively or offensively so we are a bit blind in that regard.
Judice generally just looks to strike and I do like her aggressiveness and tenacity from an offensive striking perspective. She has some okay straight punches and seems tough with good cardio.
I still don’t actually think Judice is that skilled though, and she is poor defensively. I mean she just absorbed 184 significant strikes in her last matchup. Judice is also just young and green and I want to see more of her, and how she develops and progresses.
As far as this matchup goes, these two honestly will probably just strike as that is what both of them are comfortable doing.
I think I favor Fernandes a bit standing. She is just more technical, controls range better, and is more mindful defensively. I also think Fernandes hits harder on a strike per strike basis than Judice. I think Fernandes is more likely to knock out Judice or hurt her too. So I am generally leaning towards Fernandes actually getting a fight that she wants for once, on the feet, and those attributes carrying her to victory.
I still haven’t seen Fernandes fight at a heavy pace though. So perhaps Judice can push a pace, have her moments, and take over the fight if Fernandes happens to gas. Judice may also have a ground advantage too and this is super low level. So I do think Judice can find ways to win.
I will still pick Fernandes though as I think these two will strike and I favor Fernandes as the more technical and powerful striker.
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On DraftKings, Fernandes is priced up to 9k, which is the primary issue.
I do consider her an effective striker, and in theory, I would want to be in before the public in a more favorable matchup than she’s had previously. But 9k makes it tough because she really needs to smash.
Can she? Maybe. Are we gonna be willing to trust her without her ever proving she’s capable of a ceiling performance? It’s pretty tough.
Plus, her odds are falling. She was north of -250 when the line opened and she’s recently been bet all the way down to -160. So she’s also just overpriced compared to her salary.
Because of all this, she’s a pure contrarian play.
The upside is that she has finishes on her record, and Judice is basically a softball player turned MMA fighter who just got hit 184 times on DWCS. Fernandes is +195 to win ITD.
There is some very sneaky upside here but it feels extremely high risk and it will be hard for me to recommend anything other than using her occasionally as a way to be unique.
Judice at 7.2k is more palatable because she’s a semi-value volume striker against an opponent who has been completely dominated in both of her UFC bouts.
Granted, that domination came on the ground, and Judice has shown nothing to suggest she can succeed at wrestling, let alone that she’ll even try.
At the same time, I mean, Ferandes is really, really terrible on the ground. She has basic submission comprehension but her wrestling is bad and her get up game is bad. Maybe Judice does have grappling equity. I can’t really project it but it’s not impossible.
I also like the optics behind her volume on DWCS. She went hard for three rounds, took a ton of shots, and landed 164 of her own. That shows at least a viable path to victory against anyone, though I really don’t consider her effective in any area.
If Judice wins, it’s probably because Fernandes just doesn’t throw that much, and falls behind.
At 7.2k, Judice seems like a viable floor option. The fight is -175 to GTD and she could theoretically land like 100 sig. strikes in a loss and score 30-40 points. It’s not terrible. And she might have a better ceiling than advertised at +600, just due to non-factored grappling equity.
It’s just really hard to want to invest in her given her base skills, and her lack of finishing ability. I will prioritize several other underdogs.
But with an improving betting line, she arguably has better win equity than some around her, and she’s fighting an opponent who is quite low-level. It’s not the worst idea to sprinkle her in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fernandes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jeka Saragih vs. Weston Wilson
Fight Odds: Saragih -361, Wilson +285
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Saragih 9.3k, Wilson 6.9k
Weight Class: 145
For us Daily Fantasy MMA players, this is the kind of fight we live for. A complete shit show between two bottom-level talents in Jeka Saragih and Weston Wilson.
At least Saragih has gotten his hand raised though. He’s coming off a brutal first-round KO over Lucas Almeida in a fight he was not expected to win.
He’s now 14-3 professionally at age 29, earning nine wins by KO and four by submission.
Saragih first made his name on the Road to the UFC, where he knocked out his first two opponents but was obliterated by Anshul Jubli in the finals. Saragih was a big dog in some of those fights too, especially against WonBin Ki who he brutally KOd in the first round.
Saragih is arguably a base grappler, and offensively some of his skills are OK. He can land takedowns and he has a handful of RNCs on his record. You just have to take it with a grain of salt because he was dominated on the mat by Jubli, controlled for seven of the eight minutes and beaten to a pulp.
So in reality, his grappling is not good and I would only expect him to beat poor competition. It’s also very likely he gets run through by anyone decent.
As a striker, Saragih clearly has power, but I don’t really buy it. His recent KO was a bit fortunate, as he was getting lit up early and took advantage of a mistake from Almeida, who turned his back while exiting an exchange, and Saragih dropped him.
He was fairly composed against Ki though, who was being aggressive and throwing big power strikes. I’m willing to believe Saragih can continue to hurt fighters, but my guess is that his power isn’t really a stand out.
Otherwise, he can kick a little bit and throw a bit in combination. It’s fine. He’s only gone the distance once so it’s hard to buy into his round winning ability either.
Weston Wilson is a huge dog to Saragih here which should tell you a lot.
Wilson is now 16-9 professionally, at age 35, and he’s lost seven times inside the distance, including three by KO and four by submission.
Wilson also has 11 submission wins on his record and five knockouts, meaning 23 of his 24 fights have ended inside the distance.
Wilson is a BJJ brown belt, and that’s the area where he’s most likely to succeed. He is tall and long for this division, standing 6’1”, which can be a tricky frame to compete with on the mat.
But as we’ve seen in his short UFC career, length alone doesn’t mean much. Wilson dove on a leg lock and was met with big hands from Brito that put him unconscious. He then fought Jean Silva who knocked him out in round one as well.
I do consider Wilson a competent grappler in the sense that he’s aggressive and will at least attempt to submit you if you give him a limb or a neck. He has a bunch of wins by guillotine and I think that’s the main option for him. He’s also very willing to go for leg locks.
Still, Wilson doesn’t possess much of a wrestling game to back up his BJJ. He’ll get taken down mostly at will, and he’ll fail to get on top of any good opponent. At best, he’s just an opportunist on the mat and I don’t think that will carry him far.
On the feet, Wilson is aggressive, but a defensive liability. He uses a karate stance, and is aided by his length. He’s not really a capable distance fighter though, and he’s never won by decision.
At best, he can maybe pressure and hurt a lower-level opponent. More realistically, he’ll be on the wrong end of the big shots and will find himself hurt again.
Saragih is the more processed fighter here, I guess, so I will favor him, but it’s tough to feel great about.
Wilson will be five inches taller and four inches longer than Saragih, which could pose some problems, but maybe more so on the ground.
Of the two, Wilson’s durability and defense seems considerably worse, and Saragih has more proven KO power, so that will be my pick. For Saragih to hurt Wilson at some point and find the finish.
It’s just tough to bet on as I don’t particularly like Saragih’s striking, and him failing to achieve that goal feels realistic too.
Saragih should be the better wrestler as well, and he can probably take Wilson down whenever he wants. Even if he doesn’t want to, Wilson will probably put himself on the ground early in the fight.
That’s also where Wilson is most likely to win. His long arms and willingness to dive on legs and the neck will pose a threat to Saragih, who has been subbed a couple of times. I would honestly not rule out the possibility of Wilson dominating if he gets into a super advantageous position. It’s just hard to figure out how that will happen or how often.
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On DraftKings, Saragih is priced up to 9.3k and will be squarely in play based on his finishing potential.
In 42 combined fights, Saragih and Wilson have only gone to decision three times. The ITD line overall is -600, and Saragih will have one of the best ITD lines on the slate at -250.
It could also come early, as both of Wilson’s recent KO losses were in round one, and Saragih has some early finishes on his record too.
I do think he’s largely boom or bust though. Saragih can wrestle, but I don’t view him as a volume wrestler, and really the primary reason why he can score highly is because he can win ITD. So if he grapples to an early finish, as opposed to striking, that’s cool too.
But in an extended fight, I don’t see Saragih producing enough offense to be optimal and the fight could be super weird. You want an early finish.
I’m willing to play into that a bit, just given Wilson’s history. But I don’t think Saragih is a clear stand out in this range either. Obviously Aliskerov is a huge favorite and I like the grappling equity of Almabayev as well, among others.
Saragih is a great GPP target on paper though, and it wouldn’t be wrong to prioritize him over others in this range. Or if you can’t pay up further. It’s still largely a bet on Wilson being so defensively void that Saragih can get him out of there quickly, which is possible but mildly scary.
Wilson at 6.9k has some viability. I think I would prefer to play him over the fighters priced below him.
Yes he’s a huge dog and yes he sucks, but he is somewhat aggressive and does have finishing equity on the mat, where Saragih has lost before. He’s +365 to win ITD which is Ok.
Clearly this isn’t a spot to get super excited, but I don’t mind the punt, and I would include a sprinkle of him in my portfolio in large fields for sure.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Saragih by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Josefine Knutsson vs. Julia Polastri
Fight Odds: Knutsson -181, Polastri +155
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Knutsson 9.1k, Polastri 7.1k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Julia Polastri got a crack on the Contender Series back in 2021 but came up short to now UFC talent Jasmine Jasudavicius. She went back to the regional scene, rattling off three straight wins and made good on her second Contender Series opportunity this past September – she’s 12-3 as a pro. Josefine Knutsson is a fellow Contender Series alum and an intriguing 115 lb prospect who made good on her debut this past September – she’s 7-0 as a pro.
The striking component:
Polastri comes from a muay thai background where she’s competed in her native Brazil.
For the bulk of her career, I’d classify her as more of a technical brawler as she’s definitely shown some good tools but can throw them out the window at points to throw down.
Although, I thought she looked a lot crisper/sharper in her last Contender Series outing in comparison to any of her past fights.
Despite being on the shorter end of 115, she’s a dense girl who has some physical elements and pop in her punches and kicks that have hurt girls before.
Defensively, given some of her brawling tendencies, she’s been hittable throughout her career but also a tough girl that won’t hesitate to throw back hard after being cracked – she’s also never been stopped with strikes through 15 pro fights.
Overall, Polastri has a good style to win WMMA fights of a lower tier at the UFC level just given her volume, aggression and optics. She’s also been consistent in keeping in a higher work rate
Knutsson may be a bit short on MMA experience but comes from a lengthy striking background with over 50 fights between kickboxing and muay thai.
She’s not the biggest 115er in the world but she makes up for it with her technicality and physicality.
You can tell she’s been striking at a decent level for years as everything she throws tends to be tight, processed and within combination.
Given the pairing of kickboxing and muay thai, she’s really diverse in what she throws between punches, kicks, knees and elbows to where she’s not only effective at space but specifically within the clinch.
She’s by and large been able to manhandle opponents there and not only outwork them but land very damaging blows.
Ironically, she’s only finished one of her seven pro wins via strikes, but she has hurt numerous girls and come close to finishing in different fights.
The only real knock on her on the feet I have so far is that her defense can kind of be an afterthought at times, primarily when she’s flurrying as her head tends to not come off the center line.
So, despite her technicality, she does have elements of fighting fire with fire to her game – she’s just always been confident that she’s going to get the better of the exchanges and that’s what’s happened to date.
Although Austin gave her a decent run for her money in clinching positions pre–Contender Series.
Overall, Knutsson’s a pretty talented chick on the feet to where her volume, technicality and impactful striking is going to separate herself from the large bulk of lower to mid-tier chicks in the UFC.
How it plays out: I don’t see how the striking will be boring here as both of these girls come to throw down and hail from a similar background – coupled with both being pretty physical in their own rights. Polastri in all likelihood will provide more effective striking based resistance to Knutsson than she’s had so far within MMA which makes things interesting. However, I still think Knutsson is just a bit better on the technical side of things overall but specifically in clinch striking scenarios.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I wasn’t able to dig anything up on Polastri’s ground background but within MMA, it’s been a bit hit or miss.
The floor was ultimately the reason for her first Contender Series loss to Jasudavicius where she was taken down 4 times and controlled for 8 minutes. In her defense, Jasudavicius is a big girl that comes from a wrestling background and has realized ground success now at the UFC level.
But she also dropped the 1st round via wrestling to Faria a few fights back as well.
However, she’s gotten the better of the grappling in her last two fights in hitting some bigger doubles and throws that have ultimately resulted in back-to-back choke submission wins for her.
So it does appear that she has a capable jiu-jitsu game although she only reps three total pro wins via the method – she was a pretty sizable favorite to win in both of those outings as well against two meh South American chicks.
Overall, time will tell where her grappling actually lies, but I think a bulk of her success or lack thereof is going to come down to physicality in the matchups.
Given Knutsson’s more extended striking background and more recent transition to MMA, I don’t believe she has any official grappling credentials on paper.
However, the ground has been more of a pro than con for her so far in her MMA career.
She’s obviously not the girl to dive on legs for 15 minutes but has shown effective TDs from the clinch to where she’s by and large been stronger from top positions to rack up minutes and throw GNP.
I’ve seen her take the back regionally and she would have finished Mann with GNP at the end of the 2nd round if more time permitted.
Defensively, she’s shown a pretty strong sprawl and over hook to spatial TDs, and she generally stays upright in clinching positions as well.
She has conceded a few TDs though from body lock positions and some control time – not extensive though or to the point where her opponents have been able to mount much meaningful offense.
It was her fight pre–Contender Series though against Austin that had a lot of back and forth in clinching and grappling, to what ultimately made that fight a split and relatively close.
But she has shown the ability to use the cage to work up and reverse positions in certain instances.
By and large, she’s physically strong and isn’t going to be easy to take down and hold down for most girls of a lower tier.
Overall, outside of a few blemish sequences, I’ve been impressed with her ground capabilities for someone only three years into MMA.
How it plays out: The ground seems relatively variable as we’ve seen both have success and some struggles at points. A big part of what it comes down to who is able to win the hand/head positioning battles within clinching scenarios to determine primary TD success. Polastri’s probably the more likely party to play guard of the two but she also probably has a more functional jiu-jitsu game than Knutsson has right now which makes things also interesting should she get in top positions.
On what is a relatively lackluster card top to bottom, the matchmaking is good here and the fight has sneaky Fight of the Night potential. I ultimately side with Knutsson to win a relatively competitive 29-28 type of decision as I feel she’s a bit cleaner/better on the feet and in the clinch than Polastri. But it can’t be ignored that Polastri has 2x the pro MMA experience and has fought the better girls in totality – definitely not someone I would sleep on this week despite the highly touted nature of Knutsson.
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On DraftKings, this is another tough one, but ultimately, it will be tough to pay up for Knutsson at 9.1k.
She will fall into the contrarian category, and likely one where the majority of people decide she is ultimately not worth it. She’s too expensive at only -180 to win, and her ITD line is poor at +375.
I will say that I was on her in her last matchup and despite it feeling like she underperformed, she did put up 110. People might see that and get interested.
I also do really like Knutsson as a prospect. I think she’s well-rounded and I’m pretty interested to see her fight.
This is definitely a step up in competition though, and I just didn’t like how little she pushed the gas against Mann, who is a literal sitting duck and not a UFC-caliber fighter.
So I’m worried about the pure upside here, which looks like it’s also baked into the line. And while I’m not against playing her, I just think there are too many other priorities and pivots in this range for me to get to Knutsson often.
Polastri at 7.1k is more viable based on pricing, and I’d consider her more of a cash or floor based play, with the GTD sitting at -325.
Polastri arguably has a better, or much better chance to win than the majority of fighters nearby, and I don’t mind using her a bit based on line value alone.
I don’t think her ceiling is great though. I don’t think she has much grappling equity, and she has no real finishing equity at +575. I think a close decision is the most likely path and I’m just not sure it scores well enough.
It could also just depend on the total number of dogs who win. The fewer who win, the better for Polastri. She has some viability in total but not a large field tournament priority given the questionable ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Knutsson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Melquizael Costa vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Fight Odds: Costa -194, Nuerdanbieke +165
Odds to Finish: -115
DraftKings Salaries: Costa 8.5k, Nuerdanbieke 7.7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am excited to see Melquizael Costa back in the cage this weekend against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke.
I thought Costa looked good against Austin Lingo in a mostly striking battle, where Costa outlanded Lingo 100-39 in significant strikes. He then gassed himself out and got knocked out by Steve Garcia. That was a strange performance, but I still do think Costa has some decent wrinkles to his game.
Costa is now 20-7 professionally and fights out of Brazil. Standing out of the southpaw stance, Costa likes to come forward and strike. He is aggressive and he likes to use his rear kick to the body. He is basically always throwing his rear kick and will also use it to the head.
Costa has a good kicking game. He can also fight going backwards and has decent hands as well. I was actually impressed by his defense against Lingo as well. He controlled range well in that fight.
I generally think Costa is a pretty skilled striker and will compete just fine in striking fights against most fighters in the UFC. I consider him moderately dangerous with pretty good cardio. He also seems tough.
On the mat, Costa has some BJJ and wrestling in his game offensively, but he isn’t a great defensive grappler. Thiago Moises took him down four times and eventually submitted him. He scrambles up okay at times, but he needs to work on his defensive grappling. Costa isn’t an awful defensive grappler, but it is definitely not a strength of his and he will get exposed on the mat again by an above-average grappler.
Costa will be taking on Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. After being in one of the most infamous fights in UFC history against Darrick Minner, Shayilan Nuerdanbieke will be looking for his first win since that fight this weekend.
Nuerdanbieke seems okay but I am not too high on him. He is best as a wrestler. He lands 2.90 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of holding top position. He doesn’t look like a great submission grappler. I also don’t think he is a great wrestler or anything, but he is okay and he has physicality as well. I have still seen him held down a bit and taken down himself though.
Nuerdanbieke isn’t all that technical as a striker. He lands 2.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.94 in return. He has a little bit of power, but he isn’t anything special and his metrics are awful.
I am much more confident in Nuerdanbieke winning fights if he can land takedowns. I do think he can continue to beat low-level competition in this division, but his ceiling is definitely limited. He is just a guy who can kind of strike but will probably be reliant on power and drop rounds. He needs his wrestling to work to win.
As far as this matchup goes, both guys have clear paths to victory. Although I think either guy could land takedowns and have ground success, I actually do think Nuerdanbieke is the more physical and compact wrestler. I definitely think Nurdanbieke could land a few takedowns and obtain some mild to moderate control time. He can definitely win this fight for those reasons.
The issue is I don’t think Nurdanbieke can actually do much once he actually grounds Costa. So this fight could be decided on the feet where I consider Costa more skilled and versatile, with better volume. Nurdanbieke could maybe land a big punch and hurt Costa, but Costa is certainly the better volume striker.
This is a close one. I think Nuerdanbieke could win by keeping the striking competitive and landing a few takedowns. However, Costa is a better striker who could arguably land takedowns himself. So I am going to go with Costa because I think he has more paths to victory. This should be a back and forth fight though.
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On DraftKings, I consider this matchup a potentially sneaky one to open up the card.
It definitely does not feel great to target. Costa has been finished in two of his three UFC bouts, while his lone win scored 92 points.
Nuerdanbieke has averaged more than 100 points in his wins, but this is a tougher matchup and he’s coming off a knockout loss.
The positive is that there is definitely finishing equity here, as both sides can be hurt. Both sides can also wrestle, and the combination of these aspects should lead to a fairly decent floor/ceiling combination for the winner.
Costa at 8.5k is mildly interesting. He tends to start fast, and with an early finish, he could certainly reach a ceiling.
He was slamming body kicks into Lingo and looked to be on the verge of winning by TKO. Nuerdanbieke just got hurt badly to the body, and there’s definitely some merit to the idea that Costa can land early damage.
Costa can also land a few takedowns, and so if the fight extends, perhaps he can exceed 90 points, which would be solid for 8.5k. It may not be optimal without the early finish though, and that’s the major risk.
Costa is only +185 to win ITD which isn’t particularly strong, but I think that will contribute to a generally low public ownership this week.
It’s hard to outright prioritize Costa but he’s on my radar and I wouldn’t mind using him as a secondary, semi-contrarian play.
Nuerdanbieke at 7.7k is primarily a wrestler, but he’s also knocked down three consecutive opponents. With that, he has multiple paths to win and multiple paths to score highly.
I don’t particularly love his game though, and I think he’ll be at a clear disadvantage at distance, while Costa is fresh. However, Costa tends to slow down, and he’s now been finished in round two in both of his UFC losses.
I don’t think he’s the type to always gas dramatically or anything, but it seems clear that he struggles with energy output, at least mildly. And I think Nuerdanbieke is the type who could have success the longer the fight goes.
Nuerdanbieke is only +325 to win ITD but again, I doubt he’ll be super popular. He probably needs damage or wrestling to win, and I could see both scoring OK for the price.
I like some other dogs more than Nuerdanbieke, but I would rate him as a fine secondary target, with win equity, and potentially sneaky upside at a likely low public ownership.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Costa by Decision (Confidence=Low)