UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov (6/8/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Fight Odds: Imavov -125, Cannonier +109
Odds to Finish: +105
DraftKings Salaries: Imavov 8.6k, Cannonier 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
Two middleweights fighting for their spot as the No. 1 contender in the division, Jared Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov should make for a fun headliner matchup this weekend.
Imavov is coming off his first main event victory against Roman Dolidze in February, after failing to defeat Sean Strickland in a main event one year prior.
It didn’t come without some controversy though, as Imavov lost a point early in the fight for kicking Dolidze in the face while he was grounded, which ultimately led to one judge scoring the fight a draw.
It was also an awkward performance in total for Imavov, who dominated Dolidze early and nearly finished the fight, landing 51 significant strikes in that first round alone. However, Imavov seemingly spent his energy quickly, and was only able to land an additional 61 sig. strikes over the course of the next 20 minutes.
I would say that’s my primary concern heading into this matchup with Cannonier, as I fully respect the distance skills of Imavov, but am not yet convinced he’s best suited for a 25-minute affair.
Jared Cannonier on the other hand has been surging, and is coming off main event victories over Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori.
He’s always been a good athlete and explosive striker, but he’s really turned a corner in recent years, and I was extremely impressed with his performance against Vettori.
Most notably, it was the output for Cannonier that was impressive. He landed 241 significant strikes and four takedowns in 25 minutes, which are far and away the highest totals of his career.
Volume isn’t everything, but we were reminded once again last weekend that judges barely know what they are looking at. They’re placed in one small corner of the Octagon with no access to stats or replays. Fighters just have to hope they see the right angles at the right times.
My opinion has always been that it’s a difficult task for the judges, and ultimately, they just pick winners based on what they’re able to see. And for the most part, what they can see is when fighters attempt strikes, and it’s why volume is a critical factor in deciding winners.
In a matchup like this, there’s a crazy amount of variance. It’s two experienced kickboxers who will exchange for up to 25 minutes, and there’s not a ton separating the two.
Both sides are capable of hurting the other. Both sides are capable of producing enough offense to win some rounds.
But I think the difference between Cannonier and Imavov at this stage is that we’ve seen Cannonier fight really hard in championship rounds, while we’ve seen Imavov struggle.
Imavov was huffing and puffing in those championship rounds against Strickland, though he landed 23 and 35 sig. strikes in rounds four and five. The body language wasn’t great though and he was essentially doubled up on strikes in rounds 3/4.
The Dolidze fight was a bad look to me because Imavov had Dolidze badly hurt early. Dolidze doesn’t offer much at distance, but Imavov was only able to land 14 and 18 strikes in rounds 4 and 5.
Conversely, we just saw Cannonier land 49 sig. strikes and two takedowns in round five against Vettori, in a fight where he had already nearly 200 sig. Strikes.
I simply have more faith that in the latter rounds, Cannonier will be fresher, and he’ll be the one pushing forward. It doesn’t mean he’ll easily win those rounds but those kinds of optics tend to be favorable to the judges, and that’s why I’m going to lean toward him in general.
I suppose the market is leaning the other direction because Imavov has faster hands, and is probably the sharper striker in general.
His metrics are certainly strong. He lands 4.53 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.26 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate. He can also wrestle, though he only averages 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes.
His defense has been good especially, and I definitely think he can have success from the outside. Cannonier has been knocked down five times in the UFC, though several of those came at HW/LHW, and so ultimately it wouldn’t be stunning if Imavov cracked him or even scored a KO.
Cannonier has been willing to sit in the fire though, and throw back, and I just think the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Cannonier.
Cannonier lands 4.68 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.13 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. Still good metrics. He’s wrestled recently but I’m not expecting it to be a major part of his game plan.
Imavov has yet to be knocked down, but Cannonier hits very hard and I still think it’s possible he could hurt Imavov with attrition.
Overall, this is a competitive kickboxing fight, and I don’t think there’s a reason to strongly favor one side or the other.
My guess is Imavov’s success is more likely to come early, while Cannonier’s biggest advantage may come late. But rounds project to be competitive, and both sides have knockout equity.
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On DraftKings, Cannonier is my preferred target at 7.6k given the fight analysis, and the sizable price discount.
He’s now shown the ability to produce volume and at this price tag, I feel more confident that he will contend for the optimal in a win.
However, there’s always a risk with striking based fights and we saw that in his five-round win over Sean Strickland. He landed 141 sig. strikes but that only yielded an 86-point DK score because he wasn’t credited with any other statistic.
In theory, this fight could be the same. He may not wrestle. He may not win by KO at +275 ITD. He may not even reach a ceiling of volume because Imavov is defensively sound.
There are ways for this fight to bust.
But 86 points is still a fairly safe score for a 7.6k underdog, and it’s also worth noting that his more recent five-round win put up 155 DK points, so there’s still clearly some upside worth chasing.
Given the high number of fights on this card and the strength of the dogs, I would only consider Cannonier a secondary option. But he’s one you should have some exposure to just based on the five-round potential, and the price savings.
Imavov feels a little more risky to me at 8.6k. He shares the same concerns as Cannonier, except he has not shown a ceiling.
He would have only scored 72 in a win if he’d gotten his hand raised against Strickland over five rounds, and his recent win over Dolidze only scored 100. We just haven’t seen extreme volume upside from Imavov and that makes me especially nervous on this kind of slate.
Again, 100 points isn’t awful though. And he probably has more upside than that, especially if Cannonier is pushing a pace.
He’s only +200 to win ITD though, which isn’t a much better line than Cannonier’s, and I don’t feel incredibly comfortable about him putting Cannonier away early. If he can’t, and this fight just turns into an extended kickboxing affair, which it’s projected to be at -135 GTD, I am a little nervous Imavov will underperform.
I consider him a somewhat safe option given the five-round potential, and the price discount compared to the top end. He’s a fine secondary tournament target as well. But I’m leaning against using him as a primary option and I think it’s a potentially interesting place to pivot away from the field in larger tournaments.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cannonier by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby
Fight Odds: Jacoby -223, Reyes +188
Odds to Finish: -175
DraftKings Salaries: Jacoby 9k, Reyes 7.2k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Dominick Reyes had a hot start to his UFC run, grinding his way to a title shot in a little under three years’ time. But after a controversial decision loss to Jon Jones back in 2020, he’s had a rough go of it, now riding a four-fight skid. He’ll be returning from a little over a 1.5-year layoff and another surgery – he’s 6-4 in the UFC and 12-4 as a pro. Dustin Jacoby wasn’t able to reach title contention but falls into a similar boat as his matchup counterpart here, as a guy who had a stronger start to his UFC run but has struggled a bit in recent years – he’s 7-3-1 in the UFC and 19-8-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Despite the recent struggles for Reyes, he’s a solid striker. He fights southpaw, has an excellent lead right hook, straight left, digs the body and kicks to both the leg and body.
In that, he mixes his attacks up well, coupled with good footwork and lateral movement. He’s high output as well, landing 4.75 sig. strikes per minute at 50% — very good especially for divisional standards over sample.
Defensively, his metrics aren’t great, eating 3.77 sig. strikes per minute at 48% but it does need to be noted that those numbers are VERY skewed from his 25-minute fight with Jones and his bout with Prochazka.
We obviously know Jones is one of the more technical strikers to ever do it and Jiri is an anomaly who just puts a pace on everyone he fights from unorthodox angles.
He has slowed down in a few extended fights though. The first being against Oezdemir, but I largely attribute that to him getting his nose broken, which meant he had to breathe out of his mouth for a good chunk of the fight. Then against Jones, his output dropped off after the second round but not a ridiculous amount if you look at the numbers – he was still throwing but his footwork did slow down and he dropped the championship rounds.
However, I still think Reyes beat Jones – I scored the first three for Reyes and not to mention that the card was UFC 247, which is one of the worst scored cards in the modern era.
But overall, he gave Jones arguably his toughest fight to date whereas even in a loss officially, he needs to be given a ton of credit.
However, Reyes didn’t look very good in his fight against Blachowicz as he fought at a much slower pace, but we know Blachowicz can lull guys into those types of fights as a higher-level counter striker.
He’s most recently coming off getting KO’d early by Spann, who does have power but getting dropped by a jab isn’t the best of looks.
Overall, I still value the striking game of Reyes as he’s powerful, technical and by and large works at a sound rate. Despite the recent losses in getting KO’d, it’s against the two biggest power threats of the division and it’s not as if he got dusted on early exchanges against Jan and Jiri. Anyone who can go strike for strike with Jon Jones has my respect and then some. His general durability though is of bigger concern at this point objectively.
Jacoby is a long-time kickboxer who’s bounced back and forth between that and MMA over the years. But he’s been full-time back into MMA now in the last five years.
Jacoby can fight from both stances but he primarily likes to fight orthodox. He’s not the biggest 205er in the world but he’s got decent hand speed.
As per being a decorated kickboxer, everything he throws is crisp, tight and accurate. But one of the best components of his game are his kicks.
We saw him really beat up Ledet’s legs badly in their fight which actually dropped Ledet. He also chewed up the legs of Grishin, but it wasn’t as debilitating as in the Ledet fight – he will attack the body and head as well.
The diversity of attack and technical acumen on display gives credence to his high-level kickboxing background.
Statistically, he lands 5.53 sig. strikes per minute at 47% — his number is actually well above 6.0 if you just look at his 2nd UFC run, with a better accuracy clip as well.
The only real issue I have with him on the feet is that he’s not great defensively. He can stand very upright and hang out in the pocket a bit too long after combos.
In that, he eats 4.07 SApM at 57% and does tend to do a good job of keeping guys on the end of his shots, but he will get tagged clean at times as well.
He got dropped early twice by Grishin but did survive the bombs of Cutelaba – albeit he took some damage there but primarily in the clinch from back ride.
But he also handled the power shots of Khalil well too, who we know is a very big hitter.
He held Khalil to just 25% accuracy to the head – I thought that was a bad decision and that Jacoby won the first two rounds like most people – actually thought there was a better argument for Jacoby 30-27 than Khalil 29-28.
He looked pretty flat in his fight against Murzakanov though where he was hurt twice in the early rounds, and then just came on too late in the fight. He was on his way to beating Menifield last time out but got dropped late in the fight which dropped him the decision.
Overall, I still value Jacoby’s striking but he’s also 36 years old now and his durability seems to be going, despite not being officially put out in the UFC.
How it plays out: I favor Jacoby on the feet purely because he is the better defensive party exchange to exchange, and despite his faltering durability, he’s still not getting put out whereas Reyes has gotten brutally KO’d multiple times now. With all that being said, Reyes does have the technical ability to compete with if not beat Jacoby on the feet. Reyes is probably the bigger pure hitter of the two on the feet as well, but despite me fancying Jacoby as more of a volume striker, he can put guys down with well-placed shots, having KO’d three of his last five opponents in wins.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Reyes is a Blue Belt in BJJ and has landed only two TDs in the UFC.
But in what we have seen from him, he does appear to be competent there when he’s gone to it, and he did submit Kimball back in 2017. He lost position transitionally against Jiri but that was more so based on explosion.
Defensively, he stuffs TDs at 80% and has stuffed multiple takedowns from very good wrestlers in the past – Jones only went 2/9 on TDs, accruing less than two minutes of control.
When he is taken down, his get up game has been good, having never been extensively controlled. Overall, grappling tends not to be a large factor in his fights though.
Jacoby’s defensive wrestling/grappling was what got him bounced out of the UFC in his first stint back in 2012.
However, it appears he’s clearly improved his TDD by digging underhooks and circling off the cage, for example when he fought a strong wrestler (on paper) in his Contender Series fight where Jacoby stuffed 10 of 11 TDs.
Grishin also went 0-2 in a fight where many thought Grishin would have success getting him down.
Cutelaba took him down nine times but on 19 attempts and only got four minutes of control time – all things considered, not too bad but that was a significant component to what made the fight close – Jacoby also took that one on shorter notice. More recently, Murzakanov went 1/5.
He’s gone to the offensive wrestling on occasion but it’s not really his game and he hasn’t had much success – him going to it late against Murzakanov was kind of dumb considering he was down two rounds.
Overall, his control ratios are essentially a wash in his 2nd run with the grappling only consisting of 15% of his total fight time – a number that is a testament to his improvements.
How it plays out: I don’t see the floor playing much of a factor in this fight as you have 2=two base strikers who just don’t wrestle all that much. In assessing the upside of who’s the more likely party to go to it and find some success, I would lean on the Reyes side.
This is a super weird fight because assessing where Reyes is at currently is pretty difficult. He’s only 32 years old but honestly might be a shot a fighter, not only physically but mentally, despite the skill set he possesses. On the other hand, you have Jacoby who I also feel is regressing at this point. Like some of these more recent losses for him were winnable matchups but him getting hurt at the wrong times cost him those fights. For the striking reasons mentioned above in the matchup breakdown though and in being the more active fighter, I still lean to the Jacoby side but it’s not a passionate take and I consider Reyes as a live underdog this week.
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On DraftKings, I consider this much closer to a 50/50 fight than the line suggests, and I think there’s been a bit too much pessimism stemming from Reyes’ recent losses.
To be fair though, Reyes might legitimately be shot and I’m pretty nervous he could get KOd again.
However, Jacoby has been getting hurt recently too and there’s just so much variance in striking exchanges. I lean toward Jacoby as a whole, as he’s been a stronger minute winner with better recent form, but Reyes is definitely live.
The fight is also -175 to end inside the distance and is seemingly a solid one to target based on how frequently each side has been hurt.
Jacoby is priced up to 9k, and he’s fine. I don’t particularly love him, but part of Reyes’ issue is that he might not be able to take damage. So if Jacoby does win by KO, there’s some chance it comes super early in the fight. That’s probably also the most realistic chance for him to reach a ceiling.
Jacoby is +130 to win ITD which is mediocre, but I’m guessing he’ll get attention at this price. He’s not a standout persay, but I definitely want some exposure to Jacoby and I’d be fine prioritizing him among the upper 8ks and lower 9ks.
Reyes at 7.2k is one of many solid underdog options, and I think he has finishing upside within his style.
He’s +250 to win ITD which is decent for the price, and the majority of his wins come with knockdowns.
The problem is that this range has several intriguing underdog targets and it’s tough to really plant your flag anywhere. So although I consider Reyes live, I wouldn’t say I’ll be extremely overweight to the field.
But this is a matchup I do like, and I think Reyes has a better chance to compete than his price suggests. If the public is completely scared off, I would not mind being overweight here and just buying into the finishing potential of the fight as a whole.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jacoby by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
Fight Odds: Rosas -220, Turcios +185
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Rosas 9.3k, Turcios 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am looking forward to watching 19-year old Raul Rosas Jr. get back in the cage this weekend against Ricky Turcios. These two were scheduled to fight in February but the fight was canceled at the last minute.
I don’t mind Rosas Jr. He gets a lot of shit from some people. However, he is young at 19 years old and developing. I don’t think he will be a champion or anything personally. But he is a pretty decent grappler and back taker, and he will absolutely wreck below average-grapplers on the mat.
Rosas is basically a pure grappler. He has some decent takedown variety, and he just has a knack for finding the back. He will pop in triangles and hold position, or threaten with a RNC. It is a good process of winning fights.
Rosas lands 3.57 takedowns per 15 minutes, and doesn’t really look to strike much. He just tries to limit engagements and get this grappling going. I like that he actually goes for his takedowns too. He doesn’t screw around and just goes to his path to victory.
Rosas definitely has some issues though. First, he is a liability on the feet. He just knocked out Terrence Mitchell, but make no mistake, I basically have zero confidence in his striking.
He is going to get wrecked standing at some point. Second, he is just not super physical and will just fail to throw around seasoned and strong grapplers. I don’t think Rosas is THAT bad with his physicality. I like his physicality more than say Chase Hooper or something. However, he is just a young kid and is still growing and putting real weight on. He needs to fill out his frame.
Rosas also slowed down against Rodriguez. I don’t hold that against him too much though. Rodriguez is a pretty good fighter and even gave Isaac Dulgarian and Jonathan Pearce issues later in their fight. I mean Rosas still had a lot of success against Rodriguez in round one.
Rodriguez was just a little too much for Rosas later in the fight which is forgivable. I dislike that Rosas only landed 2 significant strikes in that fight. 2 significant strikes landed in 15 minutes is just really bad.
I still think Rosas is going to have some bumps and losses going forward. However, he will feast off low-tier grapplers in the UFC.
Rosas will be taking on Ricky Turcios. Turcios’ best asset is his pace. He isn’t super technical as a striker or a grappler really. However, he is very willing to throw offense and has tremendous cardio. So he can make fights ugly and unorthodox and try to outwork his opponents with his cardio and willingness to throw offense.
As a striker, I don’t consider Turcios great or anything. He isn’t very technical. However, he will just brawl and throw himself at his opponents and overwhelm them. It honestly will probably work in the lower tier levels of the UFC. However, he will definitely get outslicked by good strikers as he works his way up.
I do consider Turcios a tough guy too. He is risky with his style and has been knocked out once by UFC veteran Mana Martinez. However, I generally consider him a durable and tough fighter.
As a grappler and wrestler, Turcios isn’t that technical. However, he can probably land takedowns against tired opponents. He can end up on his back though and I don’t consider his defensive wrestling good, as he is only defending takedowns at 45 percent.
However, he does work from bottom position with a ton of strike attempts, and guard submissions and scrambles. He is offensive minded which I like.
This is kind of a tough matchup as both guys present problems for one another. I do lean Rosas as he is a strong takedown artist, especially early in fights and Turcios only defends takedowns at 45 percent. I am quite certain Rosas can land takedowns easily early in this fight, which may just lead to a lot of top control or a back take and submission chance.
I still think Turcios can cause Rosas problems though. Turcios has tremendous cardio and could be at an advantage later in this fight. Turcios could really tire Rosas out. Furthermore, Turcios may just bother Rosas on the mat by not giving up his back, scrambling, and landing annoying strikes. I am just a little worried for Rosas if this fight gets extended as I think Rosas could be put through adversity.
So I am not keen on Rosas’ moneyline as I think he could have issues here. I still like his takedowns and hate Turcios’ takedown defense, so I will go with Rosas, but I am a bit nervous here.
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On DraftKings, this is a fight I am actually pretty interested in on both sides.
I completely agree with Tim’s assessment in that this fight presents issues for both guys. It’s impossible to look past the fact that Turcios doesn’t defend takedowns well though, and it gives Rosas clear grappling upside and win equity.
For that reason, I do like Rosas at 9.3k. If he wins, it’s certain to come from grappling exchanges. And because Turcios fights at a high pace, I think it’s going to force Rosas to either grab a submission, or land a bunch of takedowns with lots of control.
Essentially, Turcios will put up a fight and that means more exchanges, which means more DraftKings upside.
I’m not extremely confident in Rosas winning or finishing the fight at +135 ITD, but IF he wins, I think his floor/ceiling combo is quite good. The price of 9.3k isn’t too expensive and he’s among my favorite targets in this range.
Turcios’ floor is awful at 7.2k because as a +195 dog, the most likely outcome is that he gets held down for long periods of time and simply doesn’t score points.
But Turcios is just going to fight him tooth and nail. He’s coming off a fight in which he earned three reversals from his back, so even there, he’s going to scrap. He also landed more than 100 non-sig. strikes, which is an overlooked aspect of the scoring.
Rosas is still the better wrestler but he’s gotten tired before, and he is still a major distance question mark. Turcios almost certainly has the advantage standing over an extended period, and he almost certainly has cardio advantages. He’s also scrappy enough on the ground that he could turn the momentum, or threaten Rosas, or even take him down.
I do think Turcios is live to win for these reasons, and because of his style, I think he has significant upside. He’s won two decisions in the UFC and scored 114 and 120, so we don’t even need a finish at +580.
I’m hoping the public will overlook Turcios to a degree, just because it’s a tough matchup on a large slate. At 6.9k, I don’t mind some exposure to him and I wouldn’t mind personally being a bit overweight to the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rosas by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Fight Odds: Ferreira -260, Stoltzfus +216
Odds to Finish: -475
DraftKings Salaries: Ferreira 9.4k, Stoltzfus 6.8k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Brunno Ferreira is a Contender Series alum who pulled off a big upset in his debut over Gregory Rodrigues. He’s gone 1-1 since – he’s 11-1 as a pro. Dustin Stoltzfus is a fellow Contender Series alum who’s had a rocky road in the UFC but potentially saved his job with a win over Puna Soriano last time out – he’s 2-4 in the UFC and 15-5 as a pro.
The striking component:
Ferreira’s a smaller 185er, standing 5’10” with a 72” reach. But he’s very compact, will switch stances and has shown big power components within the pocket.
I don’t think he’s a technical savant as he can load his punches and overextend at times, but in his debut upset over Rodrigues, he landed a really processed counter left which ultimately put Rodrigues out cold.
But the dude’s an absolute bull in the pocket and guys can’t make small mistakes against him.
Defensively, he does a good job of getting his guard back up but did struggle with some of the straights of Rodrigues, and was probably losing the fight up until the KO despite competing – the distance strikes were 20 to 19.
Historically, he’s been durable but that caught up to him in his outing 2nd outing where he threw a leg kick and ate a perfectly timed shot right down the pipe from Ruziboev – kind of a dumb gameplan to be honest trying to time entry kicks against an opponent who had such a large length advantage over him – the right hand of Ruziboev was really the one thing he needed to worry about and couldn’t avoid it.
Most recently, both guys landed some good shots in the Hawes fight, but Ferriera eventually found the glass chin of Hawes right at the bell of the 1st round.
Overall, I don’t think Ferreira is anything special but he’s technically decent and a dangerous hitter. But given his lack of size at the weight class and the fact that we haven’t seen him past six minutes is of bigger concern.
Stoltzfus has a Karate background and works a more methodical pace on the feet.
He’s traditionally not high output but can pick and choose his shots well at times, and also target the leg and the body with kicks.
Despite getting 2X’d on strikes in his debut against Daukaus, he did land at a 50% clip.
However, his fight against Vieira (a base BJJ guy) was pretty concerning in regards to the stand up. Stoltzfus did outland Vieira, but he also got jabbed to pieces and only defended at 45% — Vieira is not a good striker and gave Stoltzfus a competitive fight standing.
The GM3 fight wasn’t at space for very long so there really wasn’t much to take away there. The Grant fight was competitive in a ticky tacky affair where Stoltzfus got out landed at distance 50 to 35. He got iced with a front kick early by Magomedov.
Most recently, had a decent performance against Soriano as he fought a pretty disciplined gameplan and dropped Soriano at the end of the 1st round – although he got rocked probably four times in that round to where he would have lost the round barring the knockdown – still out landed Soriano 60-30 at distance overall though.
Overall Stoltzfus is okay on the feet but will struggle with volume-based strikers who can get inside or play more effective range games.
How it plays out: Stoltzfus isn’t a particularly large 185er but he will realize a slight length advantage here of 2” in height and 3” in reach. The striking matchup on paper is honestly relatively similar to the Soriano fight – Ferreira is another compact southpaw who fights in bursts with big power. I’d anticipate that Stoltzfus will look to implement a similar game plan. Fight from the outside, fire kicks, keep his volume up and look to avoid as much danger as possible.
With that being said, it would be easy to say it’s going to go the same exact way but more often than not, that’s not the case. Just because Stoltzfus took the shots of Soriano doesn’t mean he will take the shots of Ferreira. Also, despite Stoltzfus hurting Soriano, he hasn’t shown any real power capabilities outside of that with only one official pro win via KO. Ultimately, I respect Stoltzfus’ performance there, but I also think it’s potentially an outlier in multiple ways. I’m siding more with Ferreira finding the off switch.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Judo is Ferreira’s base martial art where he holds a black belt in the discipline along with a jiu-jitsu black belt as well.
Despite kind of being known more recently as a perennial power guy, he’s landed TDs in a lot of his fights where he’s shown good throws and he can elevate guys with high crotches or double legs.
On the ground, his control components have largely been good and has shown to be an effective passer. He’s got vicious GNP and a respectable submission game to mount and take backs.
I’ve never seen him conventionally taken down, but he did lose position in one instance going for a triangle, and was able to re-reverse quickly and get back on top. He secured a triangle in another instance but hasn’t been shot on all that much.
His entries against Rodrigues didn’t look great and he almost got his back taken, but did the proper things to allow that to not happen – Rodrigues is a pretty high-level black belt as well.
He most recently hit a really nice foot sweep on Hawes who’s not an easy guy to take down.
Overall, the floor has been a nice complement to the power components that Ferreira possesses standing, but there are still some defensive questions on him given sample.
Stoltzfus is a BJJ purple belt and brown belt in Luta Livre (Brazilian martial art that combines catch-wrestling, judo and submission grappling). He stuffed 5/7 of Daukaus’s TDAs in his debut but did get stuck on bottom for extensive minutes, despite threatening submissions.
An important thing to note in the Daukaus fight as he gassed out was that he was coming off COVID and had real complications post virus which really affected his cardio – over the large body of work and me seeing Stoltzfus in extended fights, his cardio has always looked fine so I think that could be an anomaly.
However, he also got taken down by Pyfer once and controlled for roughly a minute. We saw him survive the ground with Vieira early but eventually gave his back and got submitted. So his TDD isn’t great at 46% to date.
His offensive wrestling is okay, and he’ll be strong from top position to set up submissions – diverse arsenal as well with RNC’s, guillotines, knee bars and even has a twister win – not an easy sub to hit in MMA.
He was actually on his way to winning the GM3 fight via wrestling but got greedy at the end, tried to take his back, lost position and got submitted as a result – pretty stupid.
It was the wrestling that ultimately edged him the fight over Grant despite only going 2/5 on TDs – we have seen Grant wither late from TDAs which needs to be noted.
He struggled early in grounding Soriano, but mat returned him a handful of times in the 2nd round, found the back and got the choke.
Overall, despite Stoltzfus ultimately getting subbed late by Vieira and GM3, he showed that he can hang with guys of that BJJ caliber on the ground which is a feather in his cap and is capable offensively.
How it plays out: The ground’s difficult to say here given that we haven’t had to see Ferreira defensively wrestle much or be on the bottom. As noted though in the two instances we have, he’s submitted a guy and swept another. Stoltzfus has been difficult to do anything meaningful against early in fights though, where his mistakes are primarily coming later and to higher level guys. Given the backgrounds of both, I don’t think either will be intimidated of the other/s skills to go to the ground. The floor is variable.
Weird fight. I ultimately think Ferreira is going to find the chin of Stoltzfus and put him down. However, I can’t say it’s a super passionate opinion in the sense that we haven’t seen Ferreira have to fight for extended periods of time whereas Stoltzfus does have six decision wins and some latter stoppages on his record – although Stoltzfus has had his own troubles in a handful of extended fights. What I will say I feel is different than the Soriano fight though is that Ferreira brings more offensive floor equity to the table than Soriano did.
—
On DraftKings, Ferreira is one of the most expensive fighters on the board at 9.4k, and I think the public will want to get up to him, coming off an impressive first-round KO win.
That’s been the style of Ferreira throughout his entire pro career – each of his 11 pro wins have come ITD and nearly all have come in round one. We’ve already seen Stoltzfus hurt and KOd early, so picking Ferreira to finish early makes sense.
Ferreira is -185 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate, and simply adds to the fact that his realistic upside is an early finish. Because of this, I’m fine targeting Ferreira moderately if you have the salary to afford him.
However, I have pretty major concerns about Ferreira in an extended fight. Not only has he never been outside of round two, but his size and power components make me think that his output will likely suffer down the stretch. Plus, his only loss was an early KO, and I’m not convinced he’s some extremely durable guy either.
I think Stoltzfus very likely has advantages if this fight goes the distance. He’s way more experienced, and probably can compete in all areas. I’m really not certain Ferreira actually wins this fight if I’m honest.
I’m still willing to target the upside of Ferreira but there are others in that top range I like too and I wouldn’t consider him a stand out on a large slate.
Stoltzfus at 6.8k has some appeal in a fight that’s nearly -500 to end inside the distance.
As I’ve noted throughout the article, it’s super difficult to take any real stands, even in this bottom range. There’s like 3+ other fighters in this bottom range who I wouldn’t even be surprised to see win.
So with that said, I don’t know how much exposure I’ll end up with on Stoltzfus. Probably not a ton. But I could also argue he’s among the better options because he’ll carry leverage against Ferreira, and finishing upside in general.
Some other matchups are less likely to end ITD and have more data, whereas, it’s possible Ferreira is just fully dependent on early KOs and will look like crap and get finished himself if this fight extends at all.
Stoltzfus is +350 to win ITD which isn’t great, but I would still want exposure to him in large fields, and assuming his public ownership is low, I’d probably like to be over the field.
This is a risky matchup to a degree on both sides but it’s also one of the more likely matchups to end ITD, and although it’s easy to favor Ferreira, I think the spread between Ferreira and Stoltzfus will be a bit too wide publicly.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ferreira by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Julian Marquez vs. Zach Reese
Fight Odds: Marquez -138, Reese +120
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Marquez 8.3k, Reese 7.9k
Weight Class: 185
Coming off his first professional loss, Zach Reese will be looking to rebound against Julian Marquez in a fight that’s not likely to last very long.
Reese only lasted one minute and 49 seconds in his UFC debut against Cody Brundage, which isn’t a great sign. To be fair, he was slam KOd from the full guard which is probably not the most repeatable result, but it doesn’t necessarily ease the concerns I had about Reese entering the promotion.
Reese is 6-1 professionally at age 30, and he earned his contract with a one-minute armbar on DWCS this past season.
However, it wasn’t a very strong performance. Reese sorta got taken down and then locked up an armbar from guard against an opponent who clearly didn’t know what he was doing.
To make things even tougher to read, Reese has yet to compete past the first round in any of his seven fights, and only one of those fights lasted longer than two minutes.
In those six wins, Reese has four knockouts and two submissions.
His offensive ability looks Ok, but it’s hard to gauge. He’s long, and fights in an upright stance. I like his kicking game, and it seems somewhat dangerous.
But like, we’ve only seen brief moments of any skills because his fights end so quickly and he’s mostly competed against awful competition. So sure, he can knock bad guys out in 60 seconds, but that might not mean anything as far as his ability to beat UFC level competition.
Similarly, his grappling looks fine at times. He’s stronger than he looks based on his skinny frame, and I’ve seen him fair well in the clinch game. I’ve seen him use some Judo trips and some takedowns, and his submission grappling seems fine. Is he a great grappler? Probably not.
Brundage took him down pretty early, which isn’t a major red flag, but then Reese just held full guard and attacked for submissions. That’s what worked for him at the regional level so it’s not really a surprise.
Except this time, he got slammed on his head and knocked out. It just makes me question the entire process of his game and whether he will just get stuck on his back moving forward.
I will say that despite the red flags in his record, I do think his style may work okay past the first round. He’s not someone who uses 100 percent of his energy, and I watched one of his amateur fights that went into round two, and he looked fine cardio wise. I am hopeful he is not a pure first round or bust guy.
At the same time, we just don’t know. It’s really tough for me to say he can strike at a high volume consistently for 15 minutes.. I doubt he can really wrestle hard for 15 minutes..
I still have to profile him as a guy who will have success via early damage, and if that outcome doesn’t occur, he might just lose.
His next challenge will be Julian Marquez, who is coming off back-to-back knockout losses and largely been a fighter who I’ve been low on through the majority of his career.
Marquez isn’t particularly good at anything, and his metrics are pretty poor.
He lands 4.86 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.99 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. He has never landed a takedown in seven tracked bouts, and he defends at 53 percent.
Marquez is a fighter who has excelled by getting beaten up and taken down, but having enough cardio to survive longer than his opponents, whom he eventually chokes out as they exhaust themselves.
That is impressive in some regard. He has submission wins over Pitolo and Stewart, who took him down five times and four times respectively. Marquez isn’t a great defensive wrestler but he’s tough to finish on the mat, and it’s tiring to control him.
He also has knockdowns over Sam Alvey and Phil Hawes, which, again comes back to survivability.
Most recently, he was knocked down three times in the first round by Gregory Rodrigues, and then Marc-Andre Barriault finished him off in the second round by pouring on volume. Those aren’t easy matchups to be fair.
For now, it’s tough to project Marquez as a great round winner. He gets hit a lot, and he’s been hurt a lot recently. He doesn’t wrestle.
But his cardio is pretty good, and he has some finishing ability once opponents get themselves tired.
This is an extremely hard fight to call, but my best guess is that Reese wins ITD early, or Marquez wins ITD late.
Reese just tends to have early success, and early is probably when he’ll be at his sharpest. Perhaps he can hurt Marquez early and find the finish.
I’m more skeptical of his ability to wrestle and submit Marquez, but I suppose it’s possible as well.
Marquez seems much more likely to take over after an early surge, once Reese is tired. It’s impossible to know what that would look like, or how dramatic his fall off would be, but at least Marquez has gone the distance a couple of times.
Marquez also has some power and some chokes in his game that could lead to a finish if Reese does get tired.
But I’m feeling hesitant to pick him just because while these guys are fresh, Marquez is very unlikely to be winning cleanly. He’s literally never landed a takedown, and if the fight plays out standing, both guys probably get hit a decent amount.
Process wise, at least we know Marquez is capable past round one, whereas we do not know that with Reese. So siding with the more experienced MMA professional makes sense, though I think it’s pretty reasonable to believe Reese can have early success.
—
On DraftKings, I think we have to close our eyes and invest in this one, given the -600 line for the matchup to end inside the distance.
With both fighters coming off ugly losses, I think there’s a good chance the fight gets overlooked to a degree, at least in comparison to the finishing metrics.
Reese isn’t necessarily my “preferred” play, but I think he’s the more obvious target of the two because he’s shown early finishing upside. He’s +115 to win ITD here, and he’s only priced at 7.9k.
I can’t say with certainty what his offensive production will look like, and Marquez is tough at times, but I’m willing to chase the finishing upside to a degree. Especially at this price tag, on a large slate, when the public will be scared.
Marquez is priced at 8.3k, and also has a +115 ITD line. I’m a little more nervous with him because his finishes typically come late, but there’s so much variance due to the lack of data on Reese that I don’t want to dismiss an early finishing opportunity as well.
Reese just seems to find himself on his back a lot, so if these two push a pace early, and Marquez ends up on top and finds a choke, that’s at least one reasonable path to a ceiling. I probably won’t be extremely overweight to the field on this side, but I don’t think it’s a terrible strategy given the finishing potential.
I’ll pick Marquez outright due to process but lean a little bit toward Reese on DraftKings due to theoretical early finishing ability, and in total it’s a spot I don’t mind being invested in this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Marquez by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano
Fight Odds: Baeza -178, Soriano +160
Odds to Finish: -280
DraftKings Salaries: Baeza 8.7k, Soriano 7.5k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential loser leaves town match here when Miguel Baeza takes on Punahele Soriano this weekend. These guys have lost so many fights lately and are currently on losing streaks. Both guys are in dire need of a win.
Miguel Baeza will be fighting for the first time since getting knocked out by Andre Fialho in April of 2022. Baeza previously lost a competitive fight to Khaos Williams. It was a back-and-forth fight but the power threat of Khaos kind of made Baeza hesitant and he was knocked out later in the fight.
Baeza also lost to Santiago Ponzinibbio in a fight of the year candidate a few years back. Baeza had his moments in that fight and it was extremely competitive. However, he just got beat down the stretch in the latter half of the fight. It was still a fun performance and Baeza showed that he can compete with some of the more experienced guys in the division.
Baeza generally likes to strike. He is a fast, aggressive, and powerful striker. He has some brutal calf kicks as well and he really commits to them early. Baeza has power and has a couple of knockouts in the UFC and several on the regional scene.
Baeza does have some flaws as a striker though. He lands 4.88 significant strikes per minute, which is very good, but he absorbs 5.10 in return and only defends strikes at 53 percent. So the guy is definitely hittable.
I do worry about Baeza’s durability as well. Matt Brown hurt him badly and Ponz did a couple of times as well. Khaos obviously knocked him out and so did Fialho. Those are some good and dangerous fighters though and he will surely not always be fighting guys that skilled or dangerous all the time. Still, Baeza gets hit a lot and he can be put out. Striking is just very high-variance.
I tend to think Baeza will compete with most strikers early and that he will slow down and become more hittable as the fight goes on. He got off to a pretty big lead against Ponz and visibly became worse and more hittable as the fight went on. He is still solid and a fun prospect, but he is just going to need to improve his defensive striking and ability to fight in extended fights.
Baeza is also a black belt in BJJ and I wish he used it more. He only has one win by submission in his career, which came against Takashi Sato. He has only landed two takedowns in the UFC and he only attempts about one takedown per fight. I actually think his takedowns look decent. His takedown on Sato was good and his takedown on Hector Aldana was powerful and well-timed.
Baeza hasn’t been tested much defensively as a wrestler. He currently defends takedowns at 100 percent but he hasn’t really faced any wrestlers in the UFC. I kind of want to see his defensive wrestling more.
Baeza will be taking on Punahele Soriano who was just embarrassingly finished by Dustin Stoltzfus a few months back. Soriano will also be making the drop to welterweight for this fight.
Soriano isn’t that skillful of a fighter, but he is a powerful kid. He lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.55. Again, he isn’t that skilled or technical on the feet, but he is super aggressive early and will wing his left power hand over and over again. He is 3-4 in the UFC and all three wins have come by knockout in the first six minutes. He can definitely continue to hurt guys early at this level.
That is the concern with Soriano though. If he doesn’t obtain an early knockout, we have seen him slow down in fights and not show much depth to his game. I do worry about his cardio in general. He just looked so bad against Stoltzfus man.
Soriano also comes from a wrestling background. He did use his wrestling to beat Jamie Pickett by decision on the Contender Series many years back.
However, Soriano hasn’t used his wrestling much in the UFC. In fact, Soriano hasn’t landed a takedown since 2019. He is only defending takedowns at 30 percent, but I think that is misleading as almost all takedowns conceded were against Maximov who chained 16 takedown attempts together at a ridiculously high pace. I actually don’t mind Soriano’s defensive wrestling all that much.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Baeza is more skillful, especially as a striker and a submission grappler. I also probably think Baeza is better in an extended fight as Soriano’s cardio just seems bad. I could really see Baeza chewing Soriano up with leg kicks if this fight extends. I also think Baeza could submit Soriano if he got top position for whatever reason. I overall just think Baeza is more skillful so I will pick him to win.
I do think Soriano could knock Baeza out though. Soriano isn’t good but he is dangerous and aggressive early and we have seen Baeza knocked dead or hurt multiple times. Perhaps Soriano could land takedowns as well as Baeza’s defensive wrestling is a bit untested. However, I doubt Soriano could do much with the takedowns.
This is kind of a sketchy fight. We have two untrustworthy fighters and a ton of variance is in play. I still think Baeza is the more skillful fighter who I would also favor in an extended fight so I will pick him to win.
—
On DraftKings, I suppose I will play into this one.
Baeza getting KOd by Fialho in his last fight is a really bad look, as is Soriano getting dropped by Stoltzfus. Granted, this will be a pretty extreme boom or bust matchup, but I would lean toward someone getting hurt and it could be early.
The odds on this one to end inside the distance are -280, which helps.
Baeza is priced up to 8.7k, which feels fine. He’s simply more affordable here than if he was at 9.2k and I feel more comfortable mixing him in because of it. He’s now -110 to win ITD which is fine for the price.
I wouldn’t expect extreme volume, or much grappling, and there’s even a risk Baeza fights more composed here coming off a long layoff, so there’s no reason to feel particularly confident. BUT, Baeza typically wins early when he wins, and I do think he could have success early.
He’s a fine tournament target based on his early finishing upside and price, and I’ll probably end up with a fair amount of exposure.
Soriano at 7.5k is fine as well. I mean, his upside is probably equal to that of Baeza’s, but it’s possible he’s much lower owned.
Soriano hits really hard, and his success has been even more dependent on early finishes. He’s +245 to win ITD and Baeza has been hurt in several matchups.
I think Soriano winning by knockout is a pretty realistic outcome, though it won’t be the one I pick.
There are other fighters in this range who are safer, or who have more grappling upside. But Soriano has some clear finishing upside, and he’s worth a look in tournaments. You want to be shooting for ceiling performances on a large slate and Soriano is the type who has a better than average chance at the optimal if he wins.
I’ll definitely be spreading out in this range, but I like Soriano a bit and don’t mind playing into the finishing props here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Baeza by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Thiago Moises vs. Ludovit Klein
Fight Odds: Klein -126, Moises +110
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Klein 8.4k, Moises 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
A guy I have never been totally high on, Ludovit Klein actually impressed me in his last couple of matchups and I’m interested in watching him compete against Thiago Moises this weekend.
I really liked Klein’s recent win against Ignacio Bahamondes. He struck competitively on the feet with the longer and bigger Bahamondes and hurt him at times. Klein also landed three takedowns and obtained six minutes of control. It was the best performance of Klein’s career thus far. He then beat the crap out of an outmatched AJ Cunningham in his most recent fight.
Klein is a bit of a freestyle fighter, and he is a tough seasoned fighter with a lot of experience. As a striker, Klein lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.74 in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent. Those are okay metrics.
I don’t consider Klein a great striker and his striking volume has been a concern in the past. However, Klein does have some power and can generally at least have competitive exchanges which keeps him in the fight. He is competent and experienced as a striker, and has outstruck guys like Devonte Smith, Mason Jones, and Ignacio Bahamondes. So he is decent as a striker. He has a good one-two out of the southpaw stance and has a sneaky head kick.
Klein can also wrestle a bit too. He lands 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of taking down guys and holding top position. He also defends takedowns at 83 percent which is solid. However, he has not been tested defensively as a grappler all that much. He has only been taken down by two guys in the UFC.
Jai Herbert took Klein down and I did not totally love how Klein looked on the mat. He looked competent as a scrambler, but I did see some inefficiencies in his technique which I think better grapplers can take advantage of. Landwehr also took Klein down and submitted him but Klein was badly gassed, so it is hard to give him too much trouble for that. Klein moreso just wilted to the pressure of Landwehr.
Klein is just fine. He can strike a bit and wrestle a bit, has a lot of experience, and a bit of power. I still do have concerns with his striking volume at times and he does have a terrible loss to Michael Trizano. So he does have some flaws, but he is okay.
Klein will be taking on Thiago Moises. Moises is a decent fighter. He is well-rounded and doesn’t have many technical holes in his game. He is a decent striker, a decent wrestler, and a decent submission grappler.
However, I really just dislike Moises’ overall offensive output. He only lands 2.47 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.19 in return. He also only lands 1.64 takedowns per 15 minutes. That just isn’t enough offense to ever run away with rounds. It will always be a concern of mine with Moises.
Moises does have skills on the feet though. He is no slouch. He has decent pop and won a decision over Bobby Green in a competitive fight. He was outlanded 85-42 in significant strikes in that matchup and it easily could have went to Green. However, Moises competed quite well and arguably landed the more impactful strikes. Moises also has a good calf kick.
Moises is a pretty solid submission grappler and he has won by submission a lot recently. However, he only attempts four takedowns per fight. I do think he can outgrapple weak grapplers. He actually landed four takedowns against Holobough and Costa. However, you can’t always trust him to really push for volume takedowns. Moises defends takedowns at 56 percent which is okay. He can also scramble up decently.
As far as this matchup goes, this could turn into a low volume affair on the feet. Both of these guys have had low volume fights in the past. Anyone can win rounds or drop rounds in those types of fights.
However, I do think I would lean Klein as a striker mildly. We have seen a higher volume ceiling from Klein. I also think he hits a bit harder than Moises as well and has been less breakable.
I do think Moises has some sneaky grappling upside here though. Moises is low key the best grappler that Klein has faced in the UFC, and I really did not like the grappling exchange Klein had with Herbert. If Moises really pushes for takedowns here, I sneakily think he can have success and he honestly may submit Klein.
The issue is Klein’s defensive grappling is a bit untested so we don’t exactly know how those exchanges will go. Furthermore, Moises may just choose to strike and not optimize his path to victory. There are just a lot of ways this fight can go.
You can go with either guy here. Klein is probably the better striker while Moises is the better grappler. Neither guy is likely to be completely outmatched anywhere though. I am going to pick the better grappler here in Moises though as he has been grappling far more often in recent matchups.
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On DraftKings, not only is this a tough fight to predict the winner, but it’s a tough one to be sure as to whether it will bust or not.
I lean toward Klein winning. I think he’s the more effective striker and Moises has been an inconsistent grappler. But Moises is arguably the best grappler Klein has faced, and there’s certainly an argument that he can outgrapple Klein over the duration.
Also, since there’s some binary dynamic, I do think this fight has a sneaky chance to end ITD. It’s only -125 to end ITD so it’s clearly not an obvious option in that regard, but still shows some potential.
Moises has been finished in each of his last three losses, and he can be broken. Granted, those losses came against Makhachev, Saint Denis and Alvarez, but I still view Moises as more of a frontrunner.
Conversely, if Moises has a lot of top time, I suppose he could find a submission. It’s possible.
It’s really hard to take a stand though and I’m guessing the public will ultimately not target this one heavily. So I view it as a potentially sneaky mid-range matchup.
Klein is my preferred target at 8.4k, but that’s only a lean, and I think he likely needs to win ITD to contend for the optimal. He’s only +230 ITD has a pretty low floor. I like him a bit as a mix in for large fields.
Moises may end up more popular and there’s an easier upside case to make for him, given his grappling style and price. He’s only 7.8k and has the better ITD line as well at +220.
If Moises wins, it’s somewhat likely to clear 10x and contend for the optimal, but I should note he also has decision wins of 51 and 60 on his record. He just doesn’t always land takedowns in volume.
I’m fine with using some of Moises with the thought that Klein is being overvalued based on not having fought enough quality grapplers. And there’s enough upside in Moises style compared to his price. But I also don’t consider it an easy matchup and will still remain somewhat light on overall exposure.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Klein by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Charles Radtke vs. Carlos Prates
Fight Odds: Prates -247, Radtke +206
Odds to Finish: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Prates 9.2k, Radtke 7k
Weight Class: 170
Two intriguing prospects, both Charles Radtke and Carlos Prates are coming off impressive knockout wins, and will be looking to bang it out in the Octagon this weekend.
Prates is 18-6 professionally with 13 wins by KO, and he recently won his contract on DWCS with an early KO over Mitch Ramirez.
His long frame, and precise, accurate combinations at distance are seemingly his best attributes. I wouldn’t label him an insane power striker or physical force, but his ability to land on the button has consistently translated into damage, and it feels like his offensively potent style will continue to lead him to success at the UFC level.
The primary downside in his game has been his defensive grappling, which hasn’t been tested a ton recently, but we’ve seen Prates lose by submission a few times throughout his long regional career. In fact, Prates has been finished in five of his six losses, which is just something to note.
Ramirez was able to take him down on DWCS from an attempt that I didn’t really love, and so it’s still one part of Prates’ game that I will be skeptical about moving forward. However, his long frame and ability to land shots as opponents close distance are two factors that will benefit him against mediocre wrestlers.
In his UFC debut, Prates ultimately knocked Giles out in the second round, but arguably lost the first round with some pressure and leg kicks. Prates did not look as comfortable moving backward, and he got outlanded at distance 35 to 24.
I’m unsure whether his volume is good enough to clearly separate himself in rounds, and it’s possible Prates is the type who needs to be leading the dance to have sustained success. But as long as fights are standing, at distance, he’ll be a threat.
Radtke has won both of his UFC fights, despite getting a booing from the crowd after defeating Blood Diamond in his debut. He backed it up with a quick KO against Gilbert Urbina in February.
Although Radtke, a.k.a “Chuck Buffalo” is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, he primarily wants to box, which is something I had noted prior to him entering the UFC.
Radtke is decent with his hands though. He’s hurt a few guys and I think his technique is respectable. He’s not a major volume puncher, and I don’t think he easily wins rounds standing in the UFC. But he has some power and should be able to stay competitive with a handful of the division.
I’ve also seen him hurt mildly multiple times, for what it’s worth, and he’s been finished by strikes once.
His most recent 1st round RNC victory on the regional scene was a good example of why his style can be questionable though. He just boxed with his opponent, and both guys hurt each other. The other dude shot a takedown and Radtke ended up in the turtle position. He then scrambled out, ended up on top and just dominated.
It’s like.. why?
If you’re going to be that dominant on top, why would you risk boxing and getting hurt? It feels like that’s who Radtke wants to be and although he has strong grappling in his back pocket, I don’t expect to see much of it.
To be fair, Radtke did attempt six takedowns on Diamond and landed one of them, but they weren’t great shots, and he spent a lot of time holding Diamond against the cage.
If that’s the kind of wrestling we’re going to see moving forward, it probably won’t help him win any fights.
But in this particular matchup, you would think taking Prates to the ground makes sense. Especially once Radtke gets in top position, in theory he could have a sizable advantage over Prates that could even lead to a finish.
I am not going to project a ton of wrestling for Radtke and he still might fail if he tries, but it’s definitely worth noting that Radtke should be superior on the mat.
As a boxer, I still think Radtke can have success if he pressures. He’ll have to close a lot of distance though, and that will be tough at a six-inch reach disadvantage. He did land a few leg kicks against Urbina, which would be again smart for him to attack, but he also landed zero against Diamond and it may not be a focal point of his game.
Prates very likely lands some clean shots, and damages Radtke as he tries to close the distance. It’s possible that could just lead to a knockout. Or it could mean Prates has a clear edge on rounds over the duration.
I also think Radtke could get scared away from closing distance if he gets hit a bunch early, which could lead to a more ugly fight where Radtke again wants to clinch and stall.
The other angle is that Radtke could just walk Prates down and force a brawl, which may favor him. It would lead to more messy exchanges, and would likely result in one of the two getting hurt.
I think Radtke is capable enough in the pocket to do some damage, and combined with his theoretical ground advantage, I definitely think he’s live to win. But purely at distance, Prates should be more comfortable, and I think it’s fair to lean with him overall.
—
On DraftKings, Prates is priced up to 9.2k and I’m not extremely excited to roster him.
I mostly worry that he lacks grappling equity, and that his volume isn’t special. He’s only landed 37 and 30 sig. strikes in two fights that lasted six and nine minutes respectively. In a full 15 minutes of action, we’re looking at something like 80 sig. strikes landed, which would equate to a bust on DK.
So I have to lump him into the standard boom or bust category, which will never get me super excited at a high price tag. And in a range where there may not be any real standouts, I do think Prates gets some public attention.
He is -115 to win ITD which is pretty decent and as mentioned, Radtke has been hurt before. I do think a knockout is in play.
I’m just not sure I want to invest in it heavily myself and I especially wil be cautious if Prates is projecting to be chalky in this range. Using him as a standard secondary/upside target is fine though.
Radtke at 7k interests me a bit but it’s a very tough slate to take any major stands.
I’ve been heavy on Radtke through both of his first two UFC bouts, so I’ve already seen the ups and downs.
I don’t love this matchup for him. He’s a +200 dog and only +395 to win ITD. I don’t want to rely on a KO like he just earned against Urbina.
The grappling side does intrigue me a little bit though. If he does wrestle with some urgency, that would increase his floor and ceiling in a win, and I do think a finish is possible.
I’m not prioritizing Radtke though, and there are others in this range worth considering as well. But when I need salary relief, I think Radtke is viable and I don’t mind him as a low-end mix in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Prates by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Brad Katona vs. Jesse Butler
Fight Odds: Katona -679, Butler +475
Odds to Finish: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Katona 9.6k, Butler 6.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It was good to see Brad Katona get some love a few months back when he won the TUF title after defeating Cody Gibson in an incredible fight. He did suffer a tough and close loss in his last matchup against Garrett Armfield though. He is now getting a step down in competition when he takes on Jesse Butler.
Katona has always been a solid fighter, and he never deserved to get cut from the UFC in the first place. So I was happy to see him earn his way back to the promotion where he belongs.
Katona is a bit of a generalist. I wouldn’t say he is great anywhere, but he has no holes and can fight in all areas. He is also extremely tough and has never been finished in 16 pro fights, or in four TUF fights against very good competition.
I also like Katona’s cardio a lot. He landed 164 significant strikes in three rounds vs Cody Gibson, didn’t slow down and was the fresher man later in that fight. He was also the fresher man in his last matchup against Garrett Armfield.
As a striker, I don’t think Katona is incredible or anything, but he is technical with some decent hands and kicks. I do think his defense could be a bit better, but overall he is a blue collar striker which I don’t mind.
As a grappler, Katona is decent. He is capable of landing takedowns and is a decent submission grappler. He sneakily has a submission win over Bryce Mitchell on TUF years back. He also landed four takedowns against Armfield and averages 1.5 per 15 minutes.
He is capable of advancing position and obtaining dominant positions. He is also a capable defensive grappler and tough to hold down.
Katona is also so battle tested and experienced. Like I said, he has never been finished in all of these fights and his competition has been good. He has some really good wins over Cody Gibson, Timur Valiev, Bryce Mitchell, and Kyler Phillips.
Katona will be taking on Jesse Butler. Butler is 12-5 professionally. Butler made his UFC debut one year ago against Jim Miller. Miller knocked Butler’s head into the 18th row in just 23 seconds. It was a brutal knockout.
Before Butler’s UFC debut, he was basically a journeyman on the regional scene fighting subpar competition. Butler is kind of just a scrapper. I don’t consider him very good at anything. His striking defense is suspect and he has poor defensive wrestling. He also loses position on the mat and gets reversed easily.
I do like Butler’s aggression and cardio though. He doesn’t gas and will fight hard every minute of the fight. He can put together some decent kicks and combinations on the feet occasionally. He also can threaten with submissions on the mat.
I still don’t think he is a great submission grappler though. He has eight submissions in his career but six of them came against guys with losing records. I would consider him a purple to brown belt on the mat. I am not sure what belt he actually is though.
I simply do not think Butler will last in this promotion. He is just not good enough anywhere. Toughness and cardio can only go so far.
I think Katona is better everywhere here. Katona is surely a better wrestler and should be able to land takedowns and obtain top position when he wants. I also think Katona could advance to dominant positions. Butler throws up a lot of loose submission attempts that I think Katona can stifle and use to pass guard. I think Katona has a good chance to finish this on the mat.
Even on the feet, I favor Katona’s experience and technical striking. Butler is just too hittable. Katona should just have an advantage anywhere this fight takes place.
Butler’s best chance is a random finish. Katona has just been in there with everyone though and has never been finished so I doubt it happens. Perhaps Butler can keep some striking rounds competitive and win a decision, but I just doubt that too. I think Katona is at a big advantage from a round winning perspective and is way more likely to win inside the distance.
One thing I want to point out here is that this fight is at bantamweight. Butler is a tall guy and has fought anywhere from featherweight to welterweight, with his last fight being at lightweight. I don’t think Butler has ever fought at bantamweight. So this is a big drop in weight for Butler. He may not even make weight, and it is something worth monitoring this fight week.
Assuming he makes weight fine, he’ll have a big size advantage over Katona, being four inches taller with a nine-inch reach advantage. In theory that could pose some problems for Katona, but ultimately Katona is more skilled everywhere and is the far more proven minute winner, with cardio and durability to boot.
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On DraftKings, Katona is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k, which is not usually where we’re used to seeing him.
He’s also never scored 100 points in his DK career, with wins of 97 and 93 being his two best on record. To be fair, he’s never been this heavy of a favorite.
My guess is that despite Katona being the biggest favorite on the slate by far, he won’t be too heavily owned. He’s only +160 to win ITD and his box score isn’t great.
I suppose I consider him more of a cash or small field play, given his safety. He can wrestle and strike at a moderate volume, and there’s safety in the matchup and the ML. It’s tougher to argue he has an elite ceiling worth jamming in for large-field tournaments.
At the same time, I don’t terribly mind him there. I mean, Butler was literally deaded in less than 30 seconds in his last fight. Katona also has grappling equity.
If Katona does get a finish, I could see it scoring well. Odds are indicating there’s not a super high chance of that, but Butler has been KOd on the regional scene too and Katona has submitted far better opponents.
There are probably other fighters in this range who I will gravitate toward, just given finishing upside, but I wouldn’t label Katona a fade just based on his DK history. It’s a good matchup, and the general expectation should be a win with a relatively strong score.
Butler at 6.6k probably won’t make any of my rosters, with a more limited portfolio.
Even if I make the case for him, the reality is he’s nearly +500 to win and +1200 to win ITD. There are more than a dozen other fights on the slate and many dogs who have realistic win conditions.
The case is likely in the size discrepancy and a grappling based style. I guess if Butler wins it could come on the mat to a degree, though I don’t think he’s better than Katona there. Or a random KO, which feels unlikely.
If you are maxing out large-field tournaments and want to take a flier on Butler, go for it. But he’s only a pure flier and not a fighter I’d recommend any real exposure to with a normal sized portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Katona by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa
Fight Odds: Lee -156, De La Rosa +135
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Lee 8.5k, De La Rosa 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a bit of a random rematch here as Andre Lee will face off against Montana De La Rosa. These two fought back in 2019 and Andrea Lee won a dominant decision by outlanding De La Rosa 73-14 in significant strikes.
De La Rosa did land 5 takedowns on 12 attempts but was only able to obtain 3:57 of control.
Lee has had some tough times since though. She has lost four fights in a row. I will give her some slack though as her losses have come to Viviane Araujo, Maycee Barber, Natalia Silva, and Miranda Maverick. That is a tough strength of schedule and Lee almost won a couple of those fights.
Lee is a decent fighter. Her striking is decent. She lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.76 in return. She has a good jab and can mix in a variety of strikes. I think she is a skilled striker and decent at range.
Lee is also an okay grappler. She lands 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes and can float in top position a bit. She only defends takedowns at 55 percent though and has been taken down in seven of her last nine fights. Her TDD isn’t awful and she has okay get-ups at times, but she can be held down to a degree.
Lee is a fine fighter. She can strike a bit, she can grapple a bit, and she is a tough girl with good cardio.
Lee will be taking on Montana De La Rosa. De La Rosa is an okay fighter. I mostly consider her a wrestler. She lands 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a capable submission grappler in top position.
The issue is I just don’t think De La Rosa is a particularly good wrestler and anytime she faces someone with actual wrestling skills, she generally fails to get her game going. I just consider her takedowns average at best. She can smash weak grapplers but that is it.
De La Rosa is very tough though but she is just not good at anything else besides being tough and being an okay wrestler. Her striking isn’t good. She lands 2.70 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.21 in return. She defends strikes at 44 percent and is generally at a disadvantage in the striking. She also only defends takedowns at 63 percent and can be held down on her back a little bit.
As far as this matchup goes, I honestly lean Lee here again just like I did in the first fight. I do think De La Rosa can land takedowns here. However, De La Rosa has only landed one takedown in her last three fights and she is sometimes just interested in striking these days. Even if De La Rosa lands takedowns, I am not sure she can easily control Lee.
On the feet, Lee should be at an advantage. My guess is that Lee minimizes the grappling of De La Rosa enough and moderately outstrikes her in route to a decision.
Lee has looked a bit worse lately though so perhaps she is just shot ,and gets taken down and controlled and loses. However, this is a big step down in competition for Lee. I mean it was only one year ago where Lee arguably beat Maycee Barber. Lee has just had tough matchups and perhaps people aren’t factoring in her quality of competition enough. If Lee just comes in looking anything near herself, I think she should win this fight and this is arguably a good buy low spot for Lee from a betting perspective.
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On DraftKings, my expectation is that most of the public will choose to avoid this fight given the -325 line to go the distance.
I think that’s an easy place to start. Lee only scored 70 DK points in her last win against De La Rosa, and it’s really difficult to trust her coming off several ugly losses in a row. De La Rosa isn’t typically an elite fantasy scorer unless she dominates on the ground.
The case for Lee is that she’s fighting a step down in competition and someone she’s already beaten. In theory, Lee can land a fairly high volume of strikes and mix in takedowns as well.
I think 70-80 significant strikes + 3 takedowns is within the range of outcomes for Lee. That still likely wouldn’t be enough to reach 90 DK points, and her finishing chances are slim at +325.
I don’t hate Lee but on a large slate, it’s pretty difficult to make a great case for her upside, and so I’ll likely lean toward passing with a limited portfolio.
De La Rosa at 7.7k arguably has more upside because she’s more dependent on grappling, and she landed five takedowns against Lee in her last fight.
I do think it’s likely that she lands another 2-3 takedowns in a win here, with more control. She’s also improved as a striker so I’m less certain she’ll force wrestling exchanges.
There’s a decent floor on De La Rosa in a win, but again, I don’t love her ceiling. She is +700 to win ITD and really doesn’t have a method to easily win rounds outside of clear control.
I think De La Rosa can win but I’ll lean against targeting her much on this slate, with so many other quality underdogs to choose from.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lee by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
John Castaneda vs. Daniel Marcos
Fight Odds: Marcos -116, Castaneda +101
Odds to Finish: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Castaneda 8.2k, Marcos 8k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Daniel Marcos is a Contender Series alum who will be entering his 4th fight with the promotion after his last bout ended in a No Contest – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 15-0 as a pro. John Castaneda was a part of the original season of the Contender Series but despite winning his fight, he didn’t earn a contract. He made his UFC debut as a short notice fill-in back in 2020 and has proven he deserves to be in the promotion – he’s 4-2 in the UFC and 21-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Marcos’ official background but it appears to be boxing based with a bit of kicking flavor.
His regional tape isn’t going to blow your hair back, but he was clearly winning the striking exchanges and has found numerous finishes to boot – it’s hard to take much away from the Peruvian regionals though and the fights were 4+ years ago.
In watching his fight on the Contender Series, I saw some bigger evolutions.
I thought his striking was much more processed and more technical. He had better volume, he exercised better defense (held his opponent to only 25% at distance) and was kicking more. He actually compromised his opponent with leg kicks despite not being able to finish.
Probably my one main issue with Marcos is that he can go into “rhythmy” flows at times and not step on the gas when he should. But nonetheless, it was nice to see much more maturation in his game.
I thought he looked good against Oliveira in being able to effectively counter and beat up the body with attrition leading to the finish.
The Grant fight was a competitive kickboxing match where he got the nod on the judges’ scorecards – I personally disagree and thought Grant won the fight despite the uber competitive nature – Marcos still got out-struck 70 -48 at the end of the day.
He ate some shots more recently against Aori but by and large was whooping his ass and really couldn’t miss, landing at a 64% rate before the nut shot resulting in a NC – Aori probably took a way out there to be honest.
So I like his striking but I also don’t think he’s as effective if he’s put on the back foot.
Overall, Marcos isn’t a world beater, but I consider him a solid mid-tier striker as it currently sits.
Castaneda’s a guy who’s grown on me over the years in terms of his striking.
He primarily fights southpaw but will switch stances to where he’ll stay mobile in fights within the mid-range or from the outside.
His boxing is good and along with a supplemental kicking game to where he’ll target all three levels, and has hurt guys with kicks in multiple fights.
He lands 4.79 sig. strikes per minute at 50%. Despite not being a perennial power threat throughout the bulk of his career, he does have knockdowns in four of his last five fights so that does appear to be an aspect of his game that’s coming along.
In the UFC, he struggled with the volume and hand speed of Wood but no real shame as that was a tough debut to take on short notice. He then outstruck Wineland and found the kill shot.
Against Johns, the early minutes of the fight were competitive before Johns got tired under the pressure of Castaneda – Johns also didn’t really throw much.
He had Santos on the ropes early and was very aggressive in that spot but gassed himself trying to finish the tough Santos, and ultimately got finished himself. I do think that fight was a bit uncharacteristic for Castaneda in the sense of cardio and him being more of a builder. Despite getting KO’d by Santos, I think Castaneda is a pretty durable fighter but he’s a hittable fighter at the same time.
More recently, he was able to take the 1st and 3rd round against Gafurov and out struck Kang in all three rounds.
Overall, Castaneda is a good striker and won’t be an easy guy to look good against given his diversity and ability to traditionally fight a hard three rounds – although he can be hittable when effectively cut off.
How it plays out: The stand up should be fun here as both guys traditionally fight at a pretty decent pace. Both are sound boxers with supplemental kicking games, while also possessing some power attributes. I ultimately see the striking being pretty competitive, but I ever so slightly lean to the Castaneda side because I think his southpaw look and stance switching may give some issues to Marcos, and I also think he fights off the back foot better than Marcos does. Marcos can kick across the calf, but I think it will be harder to get off because of the opposing stances.
The wrestling/grappling component:
We don’t have much to go on here as Marcos hasn’t been a very proactive wrestler.
I’ve seen him hit a few TDs regionally, but he didn’t do much with them – he also didn’t attempt any on the Contender Series.
He did land one later in the 3rd round against Grant, but Grant was able to work up immediately.
He also has no pro wins via submission so you just can’t really anticipate much offensive ground production for Marcos.
However, I have seen him defend a few submission attempts and he did stuff 11/13 shots on DWCS – his opponent got to a modified back position on him, but he was able to reverse.
So his TDD appears to be solid but he has gotten stuck on the cage for a bit in a few spots.
Overall, it’s hard to have a strong opinion on his overall grappling because we just don’t have much of a sample, but he’s been a strong neutralizer to date.
Castaneda comes from a wrestling background where he wrestled one year at the DII level but stopped to pursue MMA – he also reps a brown belt in BJJ.
In MMA, he’s mixed in TDs to a lot of his fights which has been an aid in him securing victories throughout his career. His metrics are okay but not great, landing 1.92 TDs/15 minutes at 37%. He’s got some submission and GNP victories on the rap sheet as well.
He submitted Johns who’s a wrestler by base but that was largely a product of Johns death gassing – Johns also essentially just fell over later in the fight, so Castaneda didn’t officially land a TD – kind of similar song and dance when he beat Rojo.
He landed multiple TDs in the Santos fight but couldn’t keep him down. He also struggled to control Gafurov through the early portions of the fight but did find more success in the back half when Gafurov got tired. He didn’t gain much control time on Kang but landed three TDs.
Defensively, he’s been taken down here and there but throughout the bulk of his career, his TDD and general get-up game has been one of his better attributes as he’s not the type of guy to play guard and hang out on bottom as a good scrambler.
Castaneda’s also never been submitted in 27 pro fights.
So overall, the ground is more of a strength than weakness for Castaneda but he’s not great with conventional ground control per TD.
How it plays out: I would anticipate most of the ground upside to go to Castaneda just in the sense that he’s been the far more consistent guy to pursue wrestling and has seven subs on his record, in comparison to Marcos who hasn’t submitted anyone as a pro. Once again though, Marcos’ TDD has been pretty strong to date and Castaneda still isn’t a great wrestler with great control, so there’s also a very realistic scenario of Marcos stuffing everything or working up quickly should he be grounded. Nonetheless, the upside is still there for Castaneda.
Fun scrap. I ultimately see this being a competitive 29-28 type of fight where I’d be a tad surprised if either guy ran away with it. But in what projects to be a competitive striking fight, the TD upside that Castaneda has could loom large here. Even if he’s not able to extensively control Marcos or put him in bad positions, one TD in individual rounds could solidify those rounds for him. I also think Castaneda has the better cardio of the two despite the Santos fight. Castaneda via Decision is the pick.
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On DraftKings, I’m unsure I’ll be able to attack this fight too often given how many other strong matchups there are on the slate.
This bout is -220 to go the distance, which is a concern to begin with. Neither side has guaranteed grappling production, and in theory, it’s simply a boom or bust spot with a lean toward the bust side.
Marcos is now a slight favorite despite being priced at 8k, and I’d assume he’ll be the more popular target of the two based on the value. He also has a slightly better ITD line than Castaneda at +350 ITD vs. +365 ITD, but neither metric is super strong.
Marcos is probably the more KO dependent fighter of the two as well. In his last decision win, he only scored 55 points.
Castaneda has been dropped before, so a KO is not impossible, but I don’t think it’s an outcome I’m willing to bet on. Ultimately, Marcos has some finishing upside and can be used a small amount due to value and relatively low public ownership, but I’m not super interested in investing in that outcome and he’ll fall pretty far down my priority list.
Castaneda at 8.2k is my preferred option because he can wrestle a bit, and he’s landed three takedowns in three consecutive fights. That additional grappling equity can turn an 80 point DK win into a 95 point DK win, which simply gives him one extra path to contending for the optimal.
Look no further than his last fight, which scored 95 points in a decision. That at least give me some pause as to whether I want to target Castaneda, because the fight should be somewhat fast paced. I don’t know if 111 sig. strikes is realistic here though.
Ultimately, I probably won’t heavily invested in Castaneda either. His finishing upside is minimal, and there’s reason to believe he won’t have an easy time landing takedowns as well. But I do like the theoretics of an additional grappling path, and that would prompt me to roster him as a lower-end secondary target when I need someone unique in this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Castaneda by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Eduarda Moura vs. Denise Gomes
Fight Odds: Moura -162, Gomes +139
Odds to Finish: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Moura 8.4k, Gomes 7.8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a very intriguing fight here in the strawweight division when Eduarda Moura takes on Denise Gomes.
Moura is 10-0 professionally and is a grappling oriented fighter. She booked her ticket to the UFC by submitting her opponent on the Contender Series in the first round. In her UFC debut, she dominated Montserrat Ruiz on the mat and finished her.
Before the UFC, Moura basically dominated bad competition and almost always finished them in the first round. Honestly, I do like her takedowns from what I have seen. She also looks skilled on the mat from a top game perspective. She knows how to float in top position and advance from position to position. I do think she is an interesting prospect simply because she looks like a solid grappler in general.
I do have some concerns here though. There are just unknowns and concerns with fighters who are accustomed to winning fights early, especially when their competition has been weak. Moura’s striking is probably a weakness. She also may have cardio issues and other issues with her game in general. If she doesn’t finish good fighters early, her game may honestly just fall apart.
Furthermore, even though these fights are not on tape, Moura’s record suggests that she has issues in extended fights. She has had three fights go outside of round one on the regionals, if you include her amateur career. In one of those amateur fights, she was submitted by a guillotine in the third round. That fight was only 2.5 years ago.
She also won by a split decision in her other amateur fight which was also about 2.5 years ago. She also won by split decision against Aline Sattelmayer in a professional bout a year and a half ago. Sattelmayer is a fighter I know and she isn’t very good.
The point is, even if Moura won some of those extended fights, she apparently struggled and it came against poor competition. I mean Sattlemayer is 12-17 professionally. We have to be skeptical of these early finishers until they prove to us that they can fight in extended fights. Moura may have serious issues.
I still do think she is going to have success in the UFC early in fights as I like her takedowns and top game. Whatever happens after that is tough to know. We need to collect more data on her.
Moura very well may get tested here against the tough Denise Gomes. Gomes has won as an underdog in her last two wins. She knocked out Bruna Brasil and then Yazmin Jauregui. She then lost a tough decision to Angela Hill.
Gomes is best as a power striker. She actually has a Muay Thai kickboxing win over Marina Rodriguez which is something I didn’t actually know until this round of research.
Gomes is just a bull and is super aggressive. She throws really hard punches in the pocket and is capable of landing in volume. She landed 103 significant strikes in her Contender Series fight and currently averages 4.81 sig. strikes per minute.
Her offense doesn’t look all that technical and I do question her defense a bit. However, I do think her range control looks a little better than I had thought when researching her in previous matchups.
I think Gomes is going to do fine in the UFC based on her aggression and power alone. She just closes distance and pressures well, and makes her opponents uncomfortable. She is definitely an above-average hitter for strawweight as well.
Gomes can also turn her pressure into takedowns. I don’t think she is a good offensive grappler though, and she isn’t very technical. However, she can use her physicality vs weaker grapplers to get top position.
My main issue with Gomes is her TDD. She defends takedowns at 47 percent and was taken down by Loma Lookboonme 4 times on 5 attempts, and controlled for 7 minutes. Gomes also gave up advances of position against Lookboonme. Hill also dominated Gomes on the mat.
I do think Gomes’ get-ups looked a bit better vs Hill though. Gomes is a bit too power based though and tries to explode to escape and reverse position.
I still do respect Gomes though. She has power and is super aggressive, and seems experienced as a striker. Gomes also at least survives on the mat. She has never been submitted in her professional career. I think those qualities will keep her employed in the UFC.
As far as this matchup goes, I am pretty confident Moura can land takedowns here early and probably advance position. Maybe that results in an early submission, but Gomes has done a good job surviving thus far. So I am not super confident in an early finish for Moura here.
What happens if Gomes survives is anyone’s guess. I really think this fight is going to come down to Moura’s cardio. If Moura’s cardio is on point, she probably obtains enough takedowns, top time, and dominant positions on the mat to win by finish or win a decision. If her cardio is not on point, she honestly will probably get beat up as Gomes is very physical and a dangerous striker.
Your guess is as good as mine here. I still hated some of the positions that Gomes gave up against Lookboonmee, so I am going to go with Moura here. However, I have gone back and forth as I do think Gomes is capable of surviving and testing Moura in unprecedented ways. Gomes is a step up in competition for Moura.
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On DraftKings, I think I’m going back to the well on Moura and this matchup as a whole.
She was one of my favorite plays in her UFC debut, just given her aggressive grappling style, and the severe weaknesses of her opponent Ruiz. Moura came through, winning in the second round and putting up 128 DK points.
I think this is a MUCH tougher matchup for Moura, but her upside arguably remains the same, as she’ll likely needs lots of takedowns, control, and potentially a finish to win. I don’t think she’s going to top 120 points again, but I would expect a strong score with some upside for 8.8k.
Moura is also +185 to win ITD, which honestly is worse than I would expect. It does make me a little more cautious as it’s tough to project her for lots of offense down the stretch, and I would prefer an early finish from a fantasy standpoint as well.
Still, with a grappling heavy style, Moura is somewhat affordable and the type of fighter who I like to target. I will be somewhat cautious as I’m not convinced she wins the fight, but I wouldn’t mind having moderate exposure to Moura overall.
Gomes at 7.4k is an intriguing underdog option but there’s a lot of risk here as well.
The risk is that given her opponent’s style, Gomes probably won’t score much in a loss. She could get held down for a while, or finished. She may even get held down early, and even in a come from behind win, her upside could be limited.
But I also think there’s some merit to the idea that Gomes could break Moura, and I am willing to invest in her aggressive style. Gomes can hurt people, and she should have superior cardio here, with more distance experience.
It’s a risk, but I think the upside for Gomes is fighting a competitive round one, and then finding a mid-round stoppage if Moura is gassed. Gomes is +235 to win ITD which isn’t bad.
Really, it’s a slight bet on some of the unknowns for Moura being weaknesses, which is often a bet I like to take.
There are plenty of viable underdogs so no need to be extremely heavy here, but I like Gomes for the price and consider her a solid secondary target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gomes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Cody Stamann vs. Taylor Lapilus
Fight Odds: Lapilus -274, Stamann +225
Odds to Finish: +250
DraftKings Salaries: Lapilus 8.9k, Stamann 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
I’m looking forward to seeing Cody Stamann back in the cage, in what should be a good testing ground against Taylor Lapilus.
Stamann has been fighting in the UFC for seven years now, which is pretty crazy as he was making his UFC debut around the time I started doing MMA content professionally.
He had a really fantastic start to his career, only losing one time to Aljamain Sterling in his first seven appearances. But he’s run into a tough group of opponents in recent years and likely hasn’t developed his game enough to push him past the upper echelon of the division.
That run of opponents included Merab Dvalishvili, Jimmie Rivera, and Said Nurmagomedov, so although he’s come up short often, Stamann has fought a fantastic level of competition.
His calling card has always been his wrestling, and he averages 2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes. He can wrestle in volume too, and has landed eight, five and four takedowns in a fight before, including a five-takedown performance against Song Yadong in 2019.
However, his submission grappling is not that great, so he hasn’t been able to use those takedowns to finish fights. He’s actually never won by submission in the UFC, and so in some sense, wrestling hasn’t gotten him as far as it should have.
That’s probably why we’ve seen a decrease in wrestling in recent years, and Stamann has actually only landed two takedowns total in his last five fights.
Without it, he’s still capable, but he’s only a mediocre kickboxer and won’t be able to separate from his opponents. He lands 4.39 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.63 per minute with a 62 percent striking defense.
It’s fine, but he doesn’t project to win clean rounds and he’s never really been a knockout artist, though he does have two knockdowns in his past three fights.
Overall, Stamann is a strong round winner but that’s in large part due to his ability to mix in takedowns at a moderate rate. With some recent question marks there and a lack of finishing ability in all areas, he’s had a tough time separating himself.
Taylor Lapilus is fighting in his second stint in the UFC, after getting cut in 2016 when he went 3-1 in his first four bouts.
He fights out of the Southpaw stance and his best weapon is his hard left hand, which he will snipe opponents with pretty well. Unfortunately, I do think his overall game is limited to that style.
He’s had a tough run since his return against two quality opponents in Caolan Loughran and Farid Basharat, though he was able to best Loughran over three rounds.
Lapilus was taken down by all four of his UFC opponents in the first stint, and that’s still the primary weakness in his game. He’s actually a really good athlete and can sprawl and get back to his feet alright, but his defense is just not amazing and he can give up his back.
Loughran largely failed on his wrestling shots, but did secure the second round with takedowns and control. Basharat landed five takedowns on 16 attempts and earned seven minutes of control.
Honestly, it could have been worse. Both opponents are very strong wrestlers and both had a tough time holding Laplius down. But both did get eventually get on top and earned enough control to steal rounds, so that’s some cause for concern in this matchup against Stamann.
As long as Lapilus keeps the fight on the feet though, he’s quite decent, but I wouldn’t say he has the deepest arsenal. He will generally retreat when opponents come forward, and counter with that left hand. He can also throw the left kick pretty well.
The guy is a pretty dangerous striker but he’s not super high volume. He’ll thrive when he can land big damaging shots here and there, but otherwise won’t likely be running away with rounds.
He currently lands 3.91 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.37 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate.
The market clearly thinks Lapilus is a level ahead of Stamann at distance, which I think is probably a fair assumption.
Lapilus will be nine inches longer than Stamann and should be more comfortable at longer ranges. Stamann will need to work inside to have a real chance, and he’s not likely to land on Lapilus often.
The real question mark for me is the wrestling. Stamann is a very good wrestler, and probably as good if not better than both Loughran and Basharat. I do think he can take Lapilus down.
I am not sure if he can hold him down though, and my gut feeling is that he won’t. And that’s even if he attempts to wrestle at all.
You’d think it would make sense though, as it’s a clear advantage for Stamann here. But if he lands 2-4 takedowns over 15 minutes and does nothing with them, Lapilus could run away with the fight.
That may still look like a slower paced, semi-competitive kickboxing affair though. Lapilus has touched the 80 mark in sig. strikes a couple of times, while Stamann has reached 90-100 a few times. So in terms of volume, Stamann isn’t out of this fight either.
It at least makes me question the betting line here as it feels too wide for Lapilus’ style. Even if he’s truly a better distance striker, Stamann doesn’t have a long history of getting hurt, and he could easily make a round or two competitive with some wrestling and control.
I’ll lean toward Lapilus overcoming those challenges and just outlanding Stamann a bit at distance, but Stamann is good and very experienced and this would probably be Lapilus’ best career win.
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On DraftKings, I am not particularly interested in Lapilus at 8.9k, and I think he’ll likely need an early KO to be optimal.
That’s not necessarily been his M.O. and he’s only won by KO once in six UFC bouts. His volume isn’t incredible and he’s not likely to wrestle offensively himself.
It just sets up disastrously if Lapilus doesn’t earn the early KO, and considering he’s only +320 to win ITD, it’s tough for me to recommend an investment.
I’m also guessing Lapilus will be quite low owned at this price because of those metrics. And because he’s only topped 82 points once in his UFC career.
Look, anything is possible in MMA. Using some Lapilus as a contrarian option is at least worth considering if you need to be unique in this range. Stamann hasn’t suffered a knockdown in 13 UFC bouts though, and Lapilus’ metrics are poor.
I’ll probably lean toward fading Lapilus with a limited number of lineups, and chase upside elsewhere in this range.
Stamann at 7.3k is in consideration, but this is a tough slate to prioritize any dog with question marks because there are just so many other options.
Even in this range, there’s other dogs I like and think can also pull off upsets. And then of course there’s far better win and finishing equity elsewhere.
Stamann is only +225 to win and +700 to win ITD, so it’s hard to prioritize that in any fashion. The only real positive is the wrestling. He’s landed 5-8 takedowns before and probably needs a handful of them to win this fight.
So if Stamann does win, 80-90 points or more is in play. It’s not the best matchup, but it’s not the worst matchup either.
He’ll be a lower end secondary target in general but I do think he’s worth a small mix in if you have a large enough portfolio. And he likely has one of the better floors in this bottom range, which could put him in consideration for cash games.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lapilus by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Rayanne Dos Santos vs. Puja Tomar
Fight Odds: Dos Santos -368, Tomar +290
Odds to Finish: +105
DraftKings Salaries: Dos Santos 9.1k, Tomar 7.1k
Weight Class: 115
We have a low-level women’s strawweight fight between Rayanne (Amanda) Dos Santos and the newcomer Puja Tomar.
Dos Santos made her debut last December and lost a close decision to Talita Alencar, which was not particularly surprising. She had previously lost on the Contender Series to Denise Gomes, and didn’t rate out as a legitimate prospect from my point of view.
That loss to Gomes wasn’t terrible in hindsight, but she was ultimately outstruck 103 to 55 in 15 minutes.
Dos Santos is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and although most of her wins have come by submission, I am quite skeptical as to how well she’ll fare in the UFC. A lot of her wins are super quick armbars against weak competition.
When she’s taken steps up in competition, like in Invicta, on DWCS, in the UFC and even in spots on the Brazilian regional scene, she has failed to finish the fight or lost outright.
I liked some of the transitions I’ve seen from her on the mat. She seems capable in scrambles and probably has back-taking ability. But I am not sold she’s a dominant wrestler, or anything close to it, and it’s possible that grappling won’t be an easy path to victory for her against good opposition.
In that debut to Alencar, Dos Santos only shot one takedown and failed to secure it. Alencar is a grappler herself, so it possibly was smart to choose to keep the fight upright, but it doesn’t necessarily make me feel better.
I would say Dos Santos is an improving kickboxer, but she’s not dominant in that area either. She has relied upon a kicking game, and at distance she’s fine. She can throw strikes technically well, and there’s some pop there.
She did outland Alencar 45 to 21 at distance. But yeah, she landed 3.6 sig. strikes per minute against Gomes and probably doesn’t have massive volume or KO upside. I doubt she’ll have an easy time winning rounds against good opponents.
One other concern I have for Dos Santos which won’t be an issue in this matchup, is that she’s fairly small for the division. She had previously won the Invicta atomweight title which is 105 pounds, and I doubt she’ll generally have many physical advantages in the UFC’s strawweight division.
However, this matchup against Tomar will be one of them.
Tomar is 8-4 professionally at 30 years old, and she’s one of India’s best female MMA prospects currently.
She fought a bunch of times in ONE Championship, but didn’t fare so well, though she’s coming off a few strong performances in a Middle Eastern promotion.
Tomar is nicknamed The Cyclone, and I think that’s a decent description for her because she can blitz and throw tons of volume in combination when in close.
She has a background in Wushu, which is essentially Kung Fu, and she’s a pretty decent striker with a capable kicking game.
She’s super small though, and I’ve seen some say she’ll fall below the 5’0” mark, though Tapology has her listed at 5’1”. She’s definitely better suited for atomweight and I think she’ll have clear issues in physicality fighting strong opponents in the UFC’s strawweight division.
There are also some major ground concerns for Tomar, as three of her losses have come by submission, and (at least) one of her KO losses came on the ground too.
Tomar is now a blue belt in jiu-jitsu, and some of these losses came long ago in 2017-2019, but it’s one major red flag that I am keeping an eye on.
Partially, it’s a physical issue. She can be clinched up and thrown down. And then with a bigger opponent on top of her, she hasn’t done well to get up. Again, I do think she’s improved, and I’ve seen some recent success of hers where she lands takedowns, and gets the back of her opponent.
I would only guess she can do that against low-level opponents though, and she might be limited to some head-arm throws. Against a legit UFC level wrestler, I’m pretty confident she’ll get dominated.
On the feet though, I don’t mind Tomar for her willingness to throw. She’s beaten some low-level girls but her volume can be legit. She doesn’t throw a ton at distance but in close, she can fire off a ton of strikes and overwhelm her opponents.
On the mat too she throws a ton of ground-and-pound. I actually like her activity quite a bit. It’s just hard to rely on given her lack of KO power, and lack of wrestling.
I am far from convinced Dos Santos wins this fight, but I do think it makes sense to favor her given her perceived grappling advantages, and her MMA experience.
It’s possible Dos Santos is just way better on the mat, and she can turn that into some takedowns, and an early submission. Or enough ground control to win the fight.
Even on the feet, Dos Santos is comfortable enough to strike competitively with Tomar. I don’t like Dos Santos’ volume though, and Tomar is probably actually better technically. So I really wouldn’t be surprised if Tomar won rounds on the feet here.
My guess is we’ll see a largely competitive fight where Dos Santos gets a couple of ground exchanges, and possibly turns that into more dominant sequences that win her the fight.
But without ground domination, I don’t expect Dos Santos to be winning cleanly, and one of my major concerns with her previously has been her wrestling. So if she underperforms in that aspect and allows Tomar to get ahead on volume, I won’t be too surprised.
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On DraftKings, despite a potentially large ground advantage, I’m still not super interested in Dos Santos at 9.1k.
You could argue that she’s a sneaky target and potentially someone to be overweight in tournaments, given the ground advantage. Especially on a large slate where she’s likely to be overlooked, it’s an intriguing spot on paper.
Dos Santos does not strike me as a volume wrestler though, so I think 2-3 takedowns is much more realistic than 5+. I also worry about her winning quickly with an armbar, as opposed to holding position for 10 minutes while throwing lots of ground-and-pound.
It’s still a path to a decent score and her ITD line is acceptable at +135, but a quick armbar without lots of offensive production probably won’t allow her to reach a ceiling necessary for this price.
And if the fight gets extended at all, well, we’ve seen she’s only capable of about 50-60 sig. strikes. Even with an increase here and some grappling, it’s tough to project Dos Santos to easily clear 80 DraftKings points.
My guess is Dos Santos will be pretty low owned, although she’s been smashed in the betting markets this week. She possibly gains attention because of that and because of her grappling style.
So there’s some narrative based merit to targeting Dos Santos, and Tomar has been finished on the ground a lot of times. I just don’t view Dos Santos as a great finisher, or a great fantasy option at a base level, so I’m inclined to only recommend her as a large-field, semi-contrarian target if your portfolio is large enough.
I’ve seen crazier places to be overweight though, and if you’re more bullish than me in this spot, I can understand.
Tomar at 7.1k doesn’t interest me a whole lot. I do think she has upside within her style, but only if she finishes the fight.
She’s +675 to win ITD here and Dos Santos should be a big step up in competition. It’s tough to see her having much grappling success, and volume on the feet probably doesn’t get it done.
I am worried that even in a win, Tomar would only land 100 strikes and score 70 points, or something like that. I am worried about a ceiling.
So for that reason, Tomar is pretty low on the priority list for me. Again, I like her activity and there are situations where she could smash given the high number of strikes she lands, especially on the mat. I just don’t see this as a matchup where Tomar is likely to flatten Dos Santos and pound her out for a TKO. Plus, she could be controlled on the ground herself.
Tomar won’t be owned much at all, and I do think she can win the fight, but we’re likely to see several dogs win and I will probably just chase upside for that reason.
Outside of a sprinkle due to pricing, I won’t end up with much exposure to Tomar this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dos Santos by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)