UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev (3/2/24)
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Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
Fight Odds: Gaziev -169, Rozenstruik +145
Odds to Finish: -1400
DraftKings Salaries: Gaziev 8.3k, Rozenstruik 7.9k
Weight Class: HW
It should tell you a lot about the UFC’s heavyweight division that Shamil Gaziev was competing on Dana White’s Contender Series only two fights ago, and made his UFC debut as the preliminary opener on UFC 296, only for him to be boosted into a Main Event in the fight after.
Gaziev will take on a divisional veteran in Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who will be looking to add to his early knockout total.
Rozenstruik is not one of my favorite fighters to break down, nor is he one of my favorites to back with an investment. He’s 13-5 as a pro and 12 of those wins have come by knockout.
In the UFC, Rozenstruik is 7-5, and all seven of those wins have come by knockout. Six of the seven knockouts have ended in the first or second round.
He’s a dedicated and experienced kickboxer, and that is really his only strength. Rozenstruik only has success via damage, and he’s never won a fight in which he did not knock his opponent down.
One problem though, among others, is that he doesn’t throw much volume. Rozenstruik only lands 2.81 sig. strikes per minute, while he absorbs 3.15 per minute at a terrible 45 percent defensive rate.
So he’s a kickboxer who can’t land 3 strikes a minute, who gets landed on more often than he lands on opponents, and has a defensive rate well below 50 percent.
His losses have come to a good group of opponents, but Ngannou knocked him out cold, Volkov finished him in two minutes and Almeida submitted him quickly too. Both Blaydes and Gane beat him by decision but those fights were not competitive at all.
I am only going to trust Rozenstruik when he can land big, damaging shots early in the fight. That’s always possible in the HW division but he simply doesn’t offer enough tools for me to get excited about him in most matchups.
Shamil Gaziev is undefeated as a pro at 12-0, with eight wins coming by knockout and three coming by submission.
He dropped his opponent quickly on DWCS, but got reversed and had his back taken. Gaziev then reversed position himself and choked the guy out.
Against Buday, Gaziev pressed forward and hurt Buday with his hands pretty immediately. He scared Buday away with the pressure, and just wore him down until Buday quit early in the second round.
It was an interesting performance because we haven’t seen too many extended striking exchanges from Gaziev in the past, and that’s definitely not his biggest strength.
Typically, striking has been a method for him to close the distance and take his opponent to the canvas, where he has had the majority of his success. While he does seem more comfortable and willing to engage lately, I wouldn’t say I have high expectations for his ability to cleanly outstrike Rozenstruik.
As far as his grappling credentials, Gaziev doesn’t even rate out super well there either. He’s big, and physical, and has been able to roll through a bunch of low-level opponents on the regional scene.
Still, it doesn’t take much to have success as a wrestler in the heavyweight division. As long as Gaziev pursues the takedowns, he’s arguably got a path to victory against the majority of the division, and he certainly will have one against Rozenstruik, who struggles there.
That’s been one of Rozenstruik’s biggest weaknesses throughout his career. He has no ground game.
He currently defends takedowns at 73 percent, but I can’t think of a time when he put up real resistance against someone competent. He defended one shot against Almeida initially but Almeida dove on his legs in space and got him down with ease.
He defended three of six takedowns from Blaydes, but obviously the other three attempts put him on his back and led Blaydes to more than six minutes of ground control.
At best, I would say Rozenstruik is possibly improving on his initial takedown defense and general understanding of grappling. However, his wrestling is not good, and I would say it’s closer to “bad” than anything else.
Once he’s put on his back, he does not have a good get-up game and he’s not a submission threat.
So it’s a major liability for Rozenstruik in general and a legitimate reason why favoring Gaziev in this fight makes sense.
Overall, I do not rate Gaziev extremely highly, and I’m not convinced he wins consistently at the UFC level.
I don’t think his range striking is consistent enough to win rounds, nor is he a top-level grappler.
However, Rozenstruik has so many flaws that I think I will pick Gaziev to win regardless.
Rozenstruik is surely a superior technical kickboxer, and he’ll have a legitimate path to an early knockout here. Gaziev has been rocked before.
But he throws so little volume that if Rozenstruik doesn’t put Gaziev away quickly, Gaziev might be able to compete with him there anyway. And Rozenstruik doesn’t have insane durability, so either man could get knocked out, though I would still lean toward Rozenstruik having the better chances.
Gaziev may not wrestle with urgency, but it’s certainly his best chance to dominate the fight. He’s surely the better grappler here, and I’d have to project him for a couple of takedowns in the matchup.
That’s arguably enough for him to just control Rozenstruik, pound him out, or find a submission. If not, he could easily win rounds in which he lands a takedown.
Rozenstruik possibly has a cardio advantage as he’s fought five rounds before, but I am still concerned by his volume. Maybe if Gaziev can’t finish Rozenstruik early, he’ll gas out.
I still think we’ll see these two clash in early exchanges, and the fight won’t extend very long. Either Rozenstruik will find that knockout quickly, or he’ll get pressed backward, taken down, and pummeled himself.
On DraftKings, I expect this fight to be ultra-popular given the mid-range prices, and massive odds to end inside the distance at -1400.
Gaziev should be much higher owned at 8.3k, now that his odds have moved, and he’s sitting as a solid -169 favorite. His ITD line is also great at -125 and he has lots of wrestling equity.
You can make the argument that Gaziev is one of the top overall plays on this slate, and I think you need moderate exposure here. A win very likely competes with the optimal lineup, and he saves lots of salary too.
Rozenstruik may be very popular as well at 7.9k, as the underdog in the main event, but it’s possible he gets overlooked in favor of Razhabov and Sopaj below him. Rozenstruik is extremely boom or bust, with no floor and no guaranteed ceiling though, so it’s not the most exciting target.
But if you take the macro view that his best shot to win is by first-round KO, then he at least possesses the ceiling to win a tournament. His ITD line is strong too at +125, and it’s possible he could provide significant leverage against Gaziev.
Honestly, it wouldn’t be wrong to lean into the leverage and end up overweight to Rozenstruik, especially if you want to target the likes of Sopaj, and other chalk in the 8k/9k range.
I will likely aim to split my exposure to a degree, but I do prefer Gaziev overall, as will the field.
Fight Prediction: Gaziev by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro
Fight Odds: Petrino -309, Pedro +250
Odds to Finish: -275
DraftKings Salaries: Petrino 9k, Pedro 7.2k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I originally wasn’t very high on Vitor Petrino when I first watched him fight, but he’s grown on me, and I successfully bet on him in his last couple of matchups. I’ll be interested to see him compete this weekend against the dangerous finisher Tyson Pedro.
Petrino is 10-0 professionally and knocked out his Contender Series opponent to book his ticket to the UFC. He then won his UFC debut against Anton Turkalj. He landed 7 takedowns in that fight but surrendered 5 as well. He then submitted Marcin Prachnio in round 3 after landing 4 takedowns. In his most recent fight, he knocked out Modestas Bukauskas after consolidating some top position earlier in the fight.
Petrino is a good athlete and a big, strong kid. He is clearly dangerous early and can knock people dead. He generally wins fights by early knockout. I think he can hurt people at this level. Petrino also will try to land takedowns, and I do think he can take down average UFC fighters, and ride out top position and threaten with submissions.
Petrino is just very green though. He doesn’t always throw a ton of strikes and I worry about his volume at times. I have also seen him hit and hurt before. I have also seen him taken down and get his back taken. So this guy isn’t perfect, and I don’t want to make him seem invincible.
Petrino just seems SO physical and tough though, and I think that will carry him at these early stages of his UFC career. Petrino is also young at 26 years old and athletic, so I do think he can make improvements. So he is a pretty interesting prospect, especially at LHW which doesn’t have a ton of depth or talent.
For now, I consider Petrino dangerous and knockout capable early, but I would expect him to have low volume over the course of 15 minutes. He can also land takedowns at this level and his cardio does seem decent too. I think he is a guy to at least keep an eye on as he does have some upside.
Petrino will be taking on Tyson Pedro. Pedro is a guy that I have a funny relationship with. I have labeled him as a fraud many times, and I think he has shown that in a few bad losses in the UFC.
However, I don’t know what type of dirt Tyson Pedro has on the UFC considering he has been gifted some VERY favorable matchups that have resulted in wins recently. This guy’s last three wins are against Ike Villanueva, Harry Hunsucker, and Anton Turkalj lol. The first two guys would be underdogs against your local Walmart cashier, so I don’t put much stock into some of Pedro’s wins.
Tyson Pedro had not fought for over 3 years since he had lost to Shogun as a monster favorite back in 2018. He came back and knocked out all of his three opponents mentioned above in round one. He showed some decent power and explosiveness in those fights and worked the legs well. However, those opponents have been so bad.
I still think Pedro is a knockout threat early, but I think he may be getting labeled as a more dangerous guy than he actually is because he knocked out a few awful fighters. He fought Modestas Bukauskas a year ago and lost a slow paced striking decision where he looked kind of bad, and only landed 45 significant strikes. His cardio looked bad in that matchup too. I don’t think he is the best round winning striker in extended fights.
I actually mostly considered Pedro a grappler before his comeback in 2022. He is 10-4 professionally and 5 of those victories have actually come by submission. Pedro has decent takedowns early in fights and has a decent top and passing game. He submitted Khalil Rountree and Safarov in the UFC. He also knocked out Paul Craig. I do think he is capable of taking down and submitting fighters at this level.
I just have a ton of concerns for Pedro though. He has never actually won a fight outside of the first round. All 10 of his wins have come by first round finish. He lost his three fights that went past a round. I am always skeptical of early finishers.
I just feel like Pedro may be a bit of a front runner who is reliant on winning early. If he doesn’t get the early finish, he will probably just collapse, similar to how he collapsed against Shogun back in the day. It wasn’t a good look. Pedro also only defends takedowns at 52 percent and I think good grapplers can take him down and make him quit.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to go with Petrino here because he seems so much more durable than Pedro, and I trust him WAY more in extended fights.
Pedro may be able to land some shots early or maybe even land some takedowns, but is he really going to win if any of that success doesn’t result in a finish? I doubt it and my guess is that Petrino survives most of the time because Petrino seems like a very tough guy. Petrino honestly may just be flat out more dangerous than Pedro early on too.
If this fight gets extended, my guess is that Petrino will be the more physical guy who can push a higher pace with takedowns and power strikes. I think Petrino will just eventually start winning the fight and will overwhelm Pedro. I think this fight will play out competitive early but my guess is that Petrino will eventually take over and finish Pedro.
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On DraftKings, I am somewhat skeptical of both fighters and I’m unsure if I’m willing to prioritize either side.
Petrino is priced up to 9k, and I think he needs an early finish to maximize his chances of scoring optimally.
Technically, he does have wrestling equity, but I don’t think that’s guaranteed in this matchup, and Pedro is a competent enough grappler that he’s unlikely to be dominated on the ground.
Pedro also fights at a slow enough pace that if this fight extends, I don’t expect a ton of offensive production from Petrino.
At 9k, Petrino still rates out fine as a boom or bust tournament option. He is actually -145 to win ITD, and I suppose 9k is still a discount from the top end.
The more I dig into this slate, the more I think Petrino will be chalky. So many constructions will put players into needing multiple fighters from this range (Duncan, Petrino, Mokaev), and given how well Petrino rates out, I think they’ll be more than willing to play him at a high rate.
I don’t mind if you like Petrino here or want to be somewhat aggressive in playing him. But, I am worried about the chalk and I am worried about the fight extending.
Of course I will have some exposure to Petrino, and potentially a good amount of him with a larger portfolio but without an early finish, I do not expect him to be optimal, and that’s still a tough ask. Coming in a bit underweight isn’t an awful idea if you like other chalky options on the card.
Pedro is very boom or bust but he’s priced down to 7.2k, on a slate where we might need to target cheap fighters.
This is a really tough slate in that sense. Any and every cheap underdog is viable because you may literally NEED the salary relief to construct a decent lineup.
Pedro could possibly hurt Petrino early, and he has some wrestling equity. Petrino isn’t a high-class talent so a win is on the table here.
However, I just don’t love Pedro’s game. He’s a low-volume guy and doesn’t carry a strong floor here. He’s kind of just a secondary mix-in to me, with a respectable +360 ITD line.
I’m not picking him to win but he can definitely compete early in the fight. At 7.2k, a small dose of exposure is fine, and he does still have enough finishing upside to contend for the optimal if he pulls off another early win.
I am worried that Pedro and Ribeiro become very chalky as the only real options below Sopaj with clear finishing upside. It’s still fine to mix him in but I’ll probably take more risks and pay down further more often.
Fight Prediction: Petrino by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Alex Perez vs. Muhammed Mokaev
Fight Odds: Mokaev -361, Perez +285
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Mokaev 9.1k, Perez 7.1k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Muhammad Mokaev is one of the younger fighters on the roster at 23 years old and one of the more highly touted prospects at 125 lbs. – he’s 5-0 in the UFC and 10-0 as a pro. Alex Perez is a Contender Series alum from the original season back in 2017. But he’s been very inactive in recent years and has more canceled fights than UFC fights themselves – I’m highly skeptical that Perez makes it to the cage on Saturday – he’s 7-3 in the UFC and 24-7 as a pro.
The striking component:
Mokaev is a wrestler/grappler by base and because of his high amount of ground success, we still haven’t seen a ton of him in extended distance exchanges.
But he has shown some good qualities in being mobile to avoid extensive exchanges back his way and burst in with flurries of his own. Historically, he hasn’t been a big power threat in space, with his finishes via strikes coming on the ground from dominant positions.
We obviously saw him land that big flying knee on Durden in his debut but I’m still not really willing to say that makes him an overt power threat because it’s kind of memey.
Despite his movement patterns, defensively is still where I have some issues with him.
He stands very rigid/stiff, and guys have been able to cut the cage off on him before.
Granted, he’s not getting tee’d off on or anything, but I did think his fight with O’Driscoll pre-UFC was kind of concerning and we did see Gordon hit him flush a few times that forced immediate shots.
Overall, I’d say his stand up is serviceable to his style, but he’s now entered the Top 15 and there are many guys ranked above him that will give him bigger issues standing should he not be able to get going on his wrestling.
Perez is a wrestler by nature but has also shown some respectable striking in his UFC run so far.
He sits down on his punches well, has solid hooks and a sound kicking game to boot.
We saw that kicking game specifically on display in his last W over Formiga where he debilitated his calf to the point of scoring a finish via kicks.
But he’s shown pop as well in his hands, despite not being a perennial power threat, beating the absolute tar out of Shorty Torres in their fight and finishing with punches.
His striking work rate has been consistent to boot, landing 4.67 SLpM at 48% and 5.68 DLpM at 42%. He’s only been out landed once in his wins and that was against Shelton which was still only by 7 strikes.
In general, he’s getting the better of the exchanges with positive significant and distance ratios despite our smaller distance sample.
Defensively, he keeps a higher guard and as a result, only eats 3.14 SApM at 60%.
We did see the pressure of Benavidez give some issues to Perez, but it was actually a headbutt that initially hurt Perez and started the beginning of the end to where he was finished with punches.
But in totality, his defense has been on point and I’d still classify him as a durable fighter as that is his only official KO loss in his career – it would be ruled a No Contest with today’s rule changes and instant replay.
Overall, Perez’s standup is a nice complement to his ground game, but the sample is smaller.
How it plays out: As noted, our striking sample is somewhat limited for both, but based on what we have to go on, I’d favor Perez on the feet. He’s at least shown he can win extended striking exchanges somewhat cleanly where that hasn’t really been the case for Mokaev outside of bigger moments. I’d also say that Perez seems generally more comfortable on the feet than Mokaev, and when Mokaev starts to face pockets of adversity, he doesn’t have another answer but to shoot TDs. Like I said though with our sample, it’s hard to make any super definitive claims.
The wrestling/grappling component:
This is the bread and butter of Mokaev who comes from a wrestling background. He’s only a Blue Belt on paper but I do think his grappling acumen exceeds that belt status.
Mokaev falls more into the attritional type of wrestler as his entries to TDs are solid, he has good chaining capabilities to back ride, and will look to pass when he solidifies better positions.
We’ve also seen him be more aggressive in terms of his passing in recent years as well, instead of being more of your “lay and pray” type of guy which has resulted in later submissions in his last 3 wins.
We have seen him get taken down multiple times, but he’s always been able to work out pretty quickly and will usually scramble back to top position – he’s definitely not the guy who just hangs out on his back although he did play guard a bit against Gordon, threatening triangles when he did get taken down there.
It hasn’t been all roses though for Mokaev in the sense that Gordon, Fialho and Elliott were able to threaten Mokaev with viable submission attempts – a RNC at the end of the 2nd from Gordon, a knee bar from Fialho in the 3rd that looked pretty deep and 2 guillotines and a tighter triangle from Elliott that Mokaev slammed his way out of.
But overall, no prior opponent has really had an answer to keep Mokaev off them for extended periods of time, giving Mokaev strong minute equity with his wrestling even if he’s not able to always outright flatten guys.
Perez comes from a wrestling background where he was an all-American at West Hills College in California.
I’m unsure of his BJJ credentials but he’s shown to be a competent submission grappler.
Despite his base, he’s not the guy necessarily diving on legs from the jump as he will stand and strike for periods, but his wrestling metrics are good at 2.84 TDs per 15 minutes at 44%.
When he’s been able to ground guys, he’s shown solid control components and a heavy top game.
45% of his fight time has been spent in the grappling for or against where he’s out controlling his opponents at a 8.6:1 ratio.
He’s also got 3 submission wins in the UFC (including DWCS) with a couple nice front head lock anacondas and an arm triangle over Jordan Espinosa.
Defensively, he stuffs at 77% but he did get submitted with a guillotine by Figgy – more of a tactical error on the part of Perez than anything as he put himself in that choke.
He also got ran through on the mat more recently by Pantoja, but that’s forgivable considering Pantoja’s probably the best grappler at 125 and the sitting champion now.
But it is important to note that he has been submitted 3 times regionally as well, so 5 of his 7 pro losses have come via submission.
Overall, I haven’t seen enough of Perez on the bottom in the UFC to say he’s an outright “poor” defensive grappler, especially factoring in who he’s been finished by, but he is a solid wrestler and is potent offensively.
How it plays out: It’s hard to make heads or tails of the ground here because both guys have spent such limited amounts of time on their back and have super strong control ratios. However, I’d say that Perez is the best overall wrestler that Mokaev has fought to date when factoring in both offensive and defensive capabilities. With that, it may be a lot more difficult for Mokaev to ground Perez than past opponents.
However, what I feel favors Mokaev is the transitional and chaining game in the grappling. I have concerns about the defensive grappling Perez at this point. But as noted, we’ve seen Mokaev put in precarious positions as well in the grappling realm and Perez has a competent submission game. I suppose I side more with Mokaev attrition given our most recent sample.
On what is a relatively lackluster card filled with fights that I could generally care less about, this is the fight I have the most intrigue in. On paper, Perez is a guy with a style that I can see giving issues to Mokaev. The main problem I have with Perez outside of defensive grappling concerns is more so in the intangibles of this fight. I just don’t know what to expect from Alex Perez in 2024. He has 2 minutes of cage time in the last 3 years, is constantly injured, having had multiple surgeries and has really struggled making the 126 lb. weight limit. With that being said, I’m not optimistic this fight even takes place or what version of Perez we get should he make it to the cage on Saturday. If we’re getting a 100% healthy, in shape and motivated Alex Perez, I consider him a live underdog this week. But my pick will be Mokaev as he’s still a very talented kid that I have far less out of the cage concerns about.
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On DraftKings, I think this is among my favorite fights on the slate, and I wish it will get overlooked a bit, given the -145 line to end inside the distance.
Mokaev may get his standard ownership at 9.1k, just based on his wrestling equity. He’s scored 102, 99, 122, 120 and 126 in the UFC. Now that I think about it, he might just be chalk.
It’s tough to pay all the way up to the top and 9.1k saves a good bit of salary from that top end. Plus, Perez has been finished in round one twice in a row and he hasn’t even competed since 2022.
I am not super high on Mokaev in this matchup in the sense of him being a value compared to his moneyline, but I do like his DK scoring potential in a win. That result very likely comes with takedowns and control, and probably a submission. It’s also possible this version of Perez is so worn down that he might just get stomped quickly by a younger, healthier athlete.
What this comes down to is the combination of Mokaev’s price discount, strong moneyline and strong ITD line at -135, wrestling equity, and question marks on Perez. All of those considered, he seems like a great play with a strong floor/ceiling combination.
I am now worried about his ownership after writing this up, and pivoting in that top end to another big favorite wouldn’t be a terrible idea. But I’ll probably end up with moderate exposure here.
Perez.. I really want to take chances on him here.. For those of you who are more new to my content, I have been a HUGE Perez backer for the majority of his career. I thought he could win the title.
Obviously this is a super risky spot given his long layoffs, injury history, and the opponent, but this is not a great bottom range this week. I at least feel confident in who Perez once was – a very solid wrestler and a very competent striker.
I think there are paths to victory for him. We’ve seen him win by TKO via leg kicks. There are avenues in which he could threaten Mokaev and he might not get insta taken down and subbed.
At 7.1k, I think I like him better than most in this range. There’s still arguably not an amazing floor, but Mokaev has had a hard time finishing lesser opponents, so it’s possible we see this fight extend for a while.
And I think of the bottom grouping, Perez has one of the best chances to actually pull off the upset. He’s still just a secondary target with a poor ITD at +800, and who knows what to expect from him on Saturday, but I’m hoping those question marks keep the public off.
Given that he’ll also carry leverage against a highly owned Mokaev, I like Perez and I’ll be mixing him in above the field this week.
Fight Prediction: Mokaev by Guillotine, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan
Fight Odds: Nurmagomedov -1337, Almakhan +785
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Nurmagomedov 9.7k, Almakhan 6.5k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar Nurmagomedov will be looking to get his fifth straight win in the UFC after a dominant display against Raoni Barcelos a year ago.
I have enjoyed what I have seen from Umar thus far. Umar is mostly a grappler. He can strike a bit too though. On the feet, he is very kick oriented and a range controller. I never considered him to have much power, but he did just knock out Barcelos in his last fight, so maybe he does. I think his striking is good and he has a lot of speed.
Umar just seems to be very hard to hit too. He is defending strikes at 75 percent and stays out of danger with his understanding of range, and in and out movement. Although it’s a small sample size, Umar is only absorbing 0.73 significant strikes per minute which is absurd. I think I want to see more of his striking against UFC level competition to truly judge it more though. He has not fought an elite striker yet.
Umar is a skilled grappler. He has good takedowns and is fully capable of getting the back and riding position. He likes to mat return from the back, kind of like Merab Dvalishvilli. He also can put hooks in and end fights with RNC as he did against Brian Kelleher and Sergey Morozov. Almost all of Umar’s finishes have been by RNC so that is his greatest finishing threat. I honestly haven’t seen a ton of his defensive grappling but my guess is that it is good given his background.
Umar will be taking UFC debutant Bekzat Almakhan. Almakhan fights out of Kazakhstan and is 17-1 professionally. He is only 26 years old.
Almakhan has generally fought in random regional promotions against guys with decent records who looked okay. However, his quality of competition thus far makes him hard to evaluate as a fighter.
Honestly though, this guy looks pretty good. I have not really seen many holes in his game, and I do not have many bad things to say about him. I am quite sure he is UFC level.
Almakhan can wrestle a bit offensively and hold position quite well. He doesn’t look like a huge submission threat, but I think he is a pretty quality grappler. Even defensively, I think he looks pretty good. I have seen him allow opponents to get deep into his hips on shots, but he generally defends well and turns his defense into his own top position. I overall like him as a grappler.
As a striker, Almakhan also looks decent. He has a really good rear kick which he generally uses to target the body. He has turned it into head kick knockouts as well. I do think his hands are decent too and he generally seems comfortable controlling range out there. I do think his volume and depth of striking may be lacking a bit though and I have seen him badly hurt before.
I really do think Almakhan is a pretty decent fighter though. The issue is he is fighting one of the best bantamweights in the world who everyone is currently dodging. So it is a very tough ask for Almakhan to come in and beat Nurmagomedov in his UFC debut.
Also, even though Almakhan looks pretty good and well-rounded, I just don’t know if he is actually better than Nurmagomedov anywhere. Almakhan just does not have a ton of experience vs quality competition, and I am not so sure he is good enough defensively as a striker or wrestler to minimize the offense of Nurmagomedov. So I think picking Nurmagomedov to win based on his experience, well-roundedness, and overall background is the correct call.
Furthermore, Almakhan seems most comfortable when he can land takedowns, and my guess is he won’t really have success against Nurmagomedov with wrestling. So I could easily see Almakhan going out there, not landing takedowns, running out of ideas, and then just getting out skilled in all areas. That is generally what I am leaning towards.
I am actually interested in this fight though because this is a high quality fight in my opinion, and I do think Almakhan putting on a respectable showing is fully on the table.
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On DraftKings, this is a weird situation with Nurmagomedov priced up to 9.7k, as a massive -1300 favorite.
You can make the case that Nurmagomedov is the best bantamweight in the world, so his price in this matchup may be truly correct.
However, Almakhan does look decent, competent, and defensively sound. And it’s possible this fight could be a lot closer than the odds suggest.
Nurmagomedov is still going to rate out as one of the best plays on this slate given his moneyline safety, strong ITD line of -160, and wrestling equity. But he’s not the highest volume striker, and he may not be able to reach a ceiling in this matchup with takedowns.
Frankly, I’m not even sure if people will have the salary to pay up for him.
I think Nurmagomedov is a very strong option in terms of floor and safety, but I’m much less convinced about his ceiling in this matchup, and if he projects to be very popular, I think leaning toward the underweight side is the right call.
Especially on a slate with several other huge favorites, we’re likely to see multiple big scores that are priced below Nurmagomedov. Jamming in the low 9ks or high 8ks may be a popular construction too but I’d rather start the majority of my lineups there, than force in Nurmagomedov this week.
Almakhan has some merit as a floor/punt option. We basically have to punt this week, even if you’re starting your lineup with the value in Sopai.
Obviously targeting the fighters with more win equity makes sense, as does the boom or bust options. But there’s also a legit chance all these underdogs lose, in which case we will have a loser on the optimal.
I don’t LOVE Almakhan’s floor because Umar is super defensively sound, but this fight is still projected to start round three. And you’re saving more money here than anywhere else, and likely getting the lowest owned guy on the slate.
I literally can’t believe I’m writing this but you can argue Almakhan is a decent contrarian option because of this..
Again, you should prioritize win equity, especially with a smaller portfolio. But given the slate dynamics where we have to save salary and play a big dog anyway, I don’t think Almakahn is fully out of the question, and may be worth a sprinkle in large fields.
Fight Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision (Confidence=High)
Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg
Fight Odds: Erceg -407, Schnell +315
Odds to Finish: -215
DraftKings Salaries: Erceg 9.2k, Schnell 7k
Weight Class: 125
I wasn’t high on Steve Erceg when he entered the UFC last year, but I’ve since been forced to change my tune, as he’s looked pretty impressive while beating both David Dvorak and Alessandro Costa.
He’s now a heavy favorite against a divisional veteran in Matt Schnell, who continues to be troubled by the same elements of MMA that have plagued him for years.
Most notably, the guy cannot take a punch.
Schnell has been absolutely deaded on multiple occasions, and even in his recent win over Sumudaerji, Schnell was nearly knocked unconscious. He came back from the dead to submit Sumudaerji, which speaks to his toughness, but his body just cannot handle punishment.
We saw that again in his most recent bout against Mateus Nicolau, who again knocked him down twice. One of the times, Schnell was hit on the side of the head and kind of face planted into the canvas, but he still did survive to lose the decision.
When Schnell is conscious, he’s a fine fighter. He’s an adequate boxer, but he still gets hit a lot. He lands 4.24 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 4.46 per minute with a 55 percent defensive rate.
His wrestling has never been good, but he’s a purple belt in BJJ and has several triangle choke wins on his record.
He only lands 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes though, and only defends at 46 percent. It’s just not a solid game at this point because he cannot control where the fight takes place, and standing, he’s a major liability to be KOd.
I had longterm concerns about Steve Erceg based on his regional tape, and he rated out as a guy who would very likely need grappling success to win at this level.
He did not seem like a physical presence, and I didn’t have a lot of faith in his wrestling game against good opposition. I wasn’t sure if he would be able to fight hard for extended periods, which he has since proven that he can.
But I struggled to see him being able to consistently outwrestle anyone good. He ended up on the ground in a lot of his regional fights and was somehow able to scramble to top position, but that’s not a consistent way to win in the UFC.
When he does earn top position, he’s a decent submission grappler. He’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and works well on the back. I wouldn’t label him an elite submission artist or anything, but he’s pretty aggressive.
On the feet, Erceg at times looks like a liability to be knocked out. He doesn’t move his head particularly well and hasn’t really paid for it, but he probably will soon. Costa did briefly hurt him in the second round of their most recent fight.
Mostly, I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Erceg, and I especially like that he has shown he can fight for a hard three rounds.
He dominated the first round against Costa and nearly locked up the RNC, but then fell short in the second round, after getting mildly hurt and taken down.
But in round three, Erceg pushed the pace again, clinched with Costa and forced the judges to give him the win.
Maybe it wasn’t as dominant of a performance as some would look, but Erceg seems like the type who will fight for your money, and I love that.
I also loved what I saw from him in grappling and scrambling exchanges. Costa dove on a fair few submission attempts, and Erceg was able to scramble very nicely into advantageous positions. It gives me a decent bit of confidence that he won’t get stuck in some dumb submission and not know how to fight out of it.
Which is one of the main paths to victory for Schnell in this matchup. That, or outboxing Erceg over three rounds.
The latter is possible because Schnell is experienced and throws fair volume, but Erceg is clearly the harder hitter, and clearly the more durable guy of the two. I could see exchanges being competitive at times but Erceg has a considerably better chance to earn a knockdown.
Erceg also seems like the better wrestler. Schnell has only taken down two of his last 10 opponents, and those were Louis Smolka and Sumudaerji, who both have zero takedown defense.
I can’t project Schnell to wrestle well here, and if anything, I would project Erceg for a couple of takedowns.
Schnell is competent enough on the mat not to get insta subbed, but he’s also only best from guard with his triangles. Erceg seems like the more well-rounded grappler and I think he’s more likely to earn control. A club-and-sub seems possible too.
This is a bit of a weird matchup because Erceg is not likely to dominate Schnell on the mat, or on the feet. And for that reason, it wouldn’t be shocking to see rounds be competitive.
But Erceg is likely more dangerous in both areas, and he could also just put Schnell unconscious at any point due to Schnell’s terrible durability. I think I am leaning toward that outcome happening, as I’ve seen it happen far too often at this point.
If the fight does get extended, I would favor Erceg to edge Schnell out based on damage and ground control.
On DraftKings, I think Erceg is somewhat boom or bust, but he’s a guy who I am willing to target because I think he has early KO potential.
He’s priced at 9.2k, which is on the border of what I expect to be the chalk range. Of course he rates out super well with a moneyline north of -400, and an ITD line of -185.
But there’s less of a guarantee with wrestling here, and an extended fight, he’ll likely bust compared to others in this range. His box score also isn’t as strong as others with 87 and 70 in wins.
For that reason alone, I am willing to play Erceg. Yeah he might win and score 80, but he could also win by first round KO, at hopefully a lower ownership than the guys priced right above him. There’s some risk here though.
Schnell at 7k is viable as is every dog on this slate.
I don’t really like Schnell though and I think he fits in better as a floor option, than a ceiling one. I don’t trust his wrestling potential, and his ITD line sucks at +775.
Maybe he can box his way to a competitive decision though? That could score 20-30 points in a loss. I am fine if you want to sprinkle Schnell in and I don’t really expect him to be a popular dog play.
But I am limiting my exposure here as I’d rather play some ceiling guys, and I honestly like some other dogs in this range better for win equity and/or contrarian purposes.
Fight Prediction: Erceg by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett
Fight Odds: Anders -520, Pickett +385
Odds to Finish: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Anders 9.3k, Pickett 6.9k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I feel like every few months or so, I unenthusiastically break down a Jamie Pickett fight, predict he is going to lose, he loses, and then he somehow gets another fight scheduled. Well, that is where we are again as Jamie Pickett will be taking on Eryk Anders this weekend.
I don’t even know how to describe Jamie Pickett’s style or how he lands offense. He kind of just exists out there and will occasionally win a fight against someone who just happens to be worse.
Anyway, Pickett isn’t a very good striker. He lands 2.84 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.92 in return. The only real success I have seen him have with his striking in the UFC is when his opponents slow down. He has had 11 UFC affiliated fights if you include the Contender Series and he has only landed 50 significant strikes two times. That just isn’t a lot of offense.
Pickett kind of likes to grapple, but I don’t really consider him a strong offensive wrestler. He lands 1.44 takedowns per 15 minutes so he can occasionally land a spot takedown. However, most of his takedowns have come vs weak competition and I just don’t trust his wrestling and top game at this level. Pickett defends takedowns at a decent 69 percent but I don’t trust his defensive wrestling as many fighters have been able to earn control against him.
I just don’t like Pickett’s round winning ability on the feet or on the mat. I guess to win fights in the ufc he will have to win by just being in better cardio shape and winning the clinch battle.
Look, Pickett is 3-8 in his 11 UFC affiliated fights. He has lost by submission three times, by knockout twice, by three-round striking decision twice, and by three-round grappling decision once. We’ve seen him literally lose by every method that is possible and he has trouble producing offense of his own. So I don’t trust him.
Pickett will be taking on Eryk Anders. Anders is kind of a freestyle fighter who will strike a bit and occasionally look to land takedowns. Anders doesn’t always land a ton of offense which is why I am not high on him in general, but he is decent and is a physically strong dude.
Anders lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.39 in return. He defends strikes at 50 percent. Those are pretty bad metrics and I don’t consider Anders a very good striker. He is basically limited to his left hand. He is a tough and physical guy though so he can stay competitive in fights.
He also has some power in his left hand and can hurt opponents. So he can kind of keep fights competitive on the feet and has a power threat. However, he isn’t a guy who is going to win clean rounds either.
Anders lands 1.54 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 6 takedowns per fight. I don’t consider him to be a great offensive wrestler but he is capable. I actually think he has a decent top game as he can use his physicality to stifle submissions and land ground and pound.
Anders is actually a decent defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at a solid 79 percent and is generally hard to hold down on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I just think Anders is better than Pickett everywhere. He is also a much more physical guy and hits harder than Pickett. My guess is Anders can win the striking and could also get grappling success going as well, and use his physicality in general in all areas.
Pickett can maybe win a close fight by just neutralizing the grappling and just kind of keep the striking competitive, I guess? However, I don’t even know how Pickett really can land offense here. I doubt he can land takedowns or land many strikes in volume so I can’t pick him to win.
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On DraftKings, Anders really isn’t the type of fighter who I feel is worth trusting at expensive price tags, but he could be an interesting target given that the field should avoid him as well.
He’s priced up to 9.3k on this slate which is costly, though to be fair, it’s about as good of a matchup as he could get. He’s north of -500 on the moneyline and is +135 to win ITD.
There’s just a real lack of consistency from Eryk Anders. I remember fondly when he ignored his grappling path to victory against Khalil Rountree and was knocked down four times.
We’ve seen him fail to produce striking offense. We’ve seen him fail to grapple. He’s been submitted quickly. And he’s been knocked down.
The only reason to consider Anders here is because Pickett isn’t great and perhaps Anders can use his physicality to get a finish. Also, I think all the ownership will come in at the high 8ks and low 9ks, and many will pay up to Umar as well. Anders might be ignored to a large degree.
I just… there’s not enough of a consistent ceiling with Anders for me to target him with any excitement. A realistic expectation for Anders in a win is like 80-90 points, which just isn’t enough.
You really need him to go out there and dominate Pickett early and score a finish. I do think that’s possible but it’s not likely enough for me to consider him as a great option ahead of other finishers in this range.
Pickett at 6.9k is potentially the best floor option in the bottom range, or one of them. He also probably has more win equity than his betting line indicates.
He just doesn’t produce a lot of offense himself either. Landing 50 strikes and two takedowns and scoring 20-30 in a loss seems reasonable. That’s not super exciting though in general. Pickett is also only +535 to win ITD which isn’t great, and his style is not dangerous at all.
On this slate, however, a small amount of points in a loss could still be optimal.
I think I will have some shares of Pickett because of his floor potential, in combination with my historic distrust of Anders. I still think it’s probably best to prioritize the boom or bust finishers in this range. BUT, if no dogs win below 7.8k, I could see Pickett being competitive for the optimal in a decision loss.
It’s a super gross target and he’s still only a low-end secondary play, but I do feel slightly better about Pickett than some other dogs this week.
Fight Prediction: Anders by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Vinicius Oliveira vs. Bernardo Sopaj
Fight Odds: Oliveira -130, Sopaj +113
Odds to Finish: -240
DraftKings Salaries: Oliveira 8.6k, Sopaj 7.6k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Vinicius Oliveira hails from the Brazilian/Middle Eastern regional scene and earned a contract back on the Contender Series this past September – he’s 19-3 as a pro. Bernardo Sopaj is a younger product of the Allstars Training Center in Sweden which hosts some notable names like Khamzat Chimaev and Alexander Gustafsson. He’ll be stepping in on a weeks’ notice to make his debut and replace the injured Yanis Ghemmouri – he’s 11-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Oliveira comes from a striking background and has shown to be relatively aggressive.
He’s not the most technical guy in the world as a lot of his shots can be looping or winging, but he’s very explosive between his punches and kicks and he possesses a lot of power to boot.
He’s finished 15 of 19 wins via KO/TKO and is dangerous with both limbs.
We’ve seen him dial back a bit in terms of recklessness in recent fights but he’s a guy who’s historically “fought to entertain”.
He’ll fight with his hands down and keep a relatively loose guard to where he has been susceptible to straights at range, or counters when he overextends. As a result, we’ve seen him hurt in a handful of fights and he’s been finished in all 3 of his pro losses via strikes.
Although even in his last loss to Taleb, he had a solid 2nd round and nearly KO’d the guy.
Lastly, given his explosive style, we have seen him slow down in extended fights, but he does fight through fatigue well.
Overall, Oliveira’s power components/big moments/work rate automatically give him a decent floor in his fights, but he may struggle with more disciplined opponents that can take his shots and keep a higher pace.
Sopaj is a shorter 135er who comes from a kickboxing background.
He likes to fight within the mid-range in a more technical, blitz striking type of style.
With that, he’s not a guy that’s consistent to produce offense at a high rate but he’s got really fast hands and power in both his kicks and punches when he decides to go – 7 of 11 pro wins have come via KO/TKO.
But in looking at his last 2 fights within the BRAVE organization that have come against more “quality” opponents, they’ve gone to the scorecards where he didn’t particularly separate himself in either fight.
I agree with the decisions in both fights but don’t think the Nuzzi fight should have been a split as I thought he lost a relatively clean 29-28.
Defensively, he’s got decent footwork and keeps a higher guard to where he’s not getting volumed up, but he can be susceptible to blitzing actions and when he overextends to counters.
Overall, he seems like a decent striker that’s dangerous but doesn’t project to be an overt minute winner at a UFC level.
How it plays out: My striking analysis is somewhat similar to Oliveira’s original opponent in Ghemmouri who was another lower volume, technical striker. But the difference and what is of more concern for Oliveira is that Sopaj is a bigger power threat than Ghemmouri was. I still trust Oliveira’s general activity far more than I do Sopaj’s, but Oliveira leaves himself very exposed at the same time. It’s also difficult to assess what the durability of Sopaj is at this point and if he can take the shots of Oliveira. The striking seems variable.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Oliveira’s a BJJ Purple Belt where we’ve seen some ground time in his fights.
He’s not a super proactive wrestler but semi capable when he does commit to shots, although I still wouldn’t rate him as a good conventional wrestler.
He only has 2 pro wins via submission, so he hasn’t proven to be much of a ground threat. We saw him submit Chipfumbu a few fights back but that was more of a club and sub situation where he took the guy’s back after hurting him to finish the RNC.
Defensively, guys can get to his hips, but he’s generally shown good TDD to off balance opponents and potentially get on top himself.
However, he’s been taken down a handful of times, but he’s not a guy to hang out on bottom and does a good job of working back to the feet in those instances.
Overall, I’d like to see a bit more on the ground from Oliveira before making any definitive claims, but he appears to be capable despite not being a base ground fighter.
There’s not much to say with Sopaj on the floor as we haven’t seen him pursue many TDs, nor have his opponents pursued much against him.
He has 3 pro wins via submission but I’m unsure of his grappling credentials and the only one I was able to view was him locking up an early triangle from bottom when he was like 15.
He did rack up a lot of top time early in his most recent fight after hurting his opponent, ultimately finishing him with ground strikes. But pretty much all the TDs I’ve seen him shoot have gotten stuffed for the most part.
I was able to find his loss to Shaposhnikov in Russia back in 2018 where he ultimately got grinded out there and his TDD didn’t look very good.
But he did put up some latter resistance and got on top at points himself.
Overall, his ground game is largely a question mark to me as it relates to current form in 2024.
How it plays out: Given sample, the ground is highly questionable here. I suppose I side more with Oliveira just because he’s pursued the wrestling a bit more and has documented BJJ credentials but who knows really?
This fight is difficult to analyze for a multitude of reasons. I don’t know what to expect for Sopaj on shorter notice, with less than 10 minutes of footage on him in the last 3 years. On the flip side, Oliveira is kind of a meme where his fights are probably going to produce a wide array of outcomes. I lean to Oliveira as the more likely party to produce consistent offense who was already in preparation to fight another mid-range technical striker. Sopaj nuking him would be far from surprising though.
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On DraftKings, this is probably going to be the most important fight on the slate, now that Sopaj was priced in at 7.6k as the replacement.
His betting odds have been moving all week, and I’ve seen him lined as a favorite in some spots. As of writing this mid-week, Sopaj is a slight +113 underdog.
On a slate where we desperately need salary relief, with no viable underdogs in sight, Sopaj is a screaming value at 7.6k and I think he’ll be ultra-popular because of it.
I also have very mixed feelings on what the optimal strat is, so let’s talk it out.
On one hand, you could consider Sopaj a near lock. He may have one of the best floor’s on the slate below the mid-range, and he clearly has the most win equity. He even has legitimate finishing equity at +170 ITD, while Oliveira has lost several times by TKO.
For reference, Oliveira is a showboater, and his defense is pretty questionable. In his most recent TKO loss, Oliveira leg kicked the guy, pointed and laughed, and then immediately got hurt. Two rounds later, though he was winning, the announcers were talking about how scared they were of Oliveira getting too reckless and getting knocked out, which is exactly what happened only moments later.
This guy is fun, but he’s not to be trusted defensively, and he’ll likely win by KO and lose by KO in the UFC.
So although Sopaj is a bit small, and somewhat of a neutralizer, I do think an early KO is within his range of outcomes. All things considered, he’s a great target on this particular slate.
BUT, he’ll be ultra-popular. So even if you play him heavily, you’re likely gaining nothing against the field. I don’t even know how to project him. He could be like 50 percent owned.
Know that if you play him, you’ll have to try and be unique elsewhere. Jamming him in with Gaziev and Al-Selwady will be a very popular route, as will the combos with Duncan, Petrino and Mokaev.
There’s also the chance that because Oliveira tends to be very aggressive, Sopaj will fight cautiously and his defense seems pretty solid. I am not convinced that an extended fight scores super well here.
So even in a win, Sopaj could land like 60 strikes and a takedown, which still may not be enough to be optimal. On this slate I guess it still likely is enough.
To summarize the points on Sopaj. He’s a screaming value and a necessary target, with upside, who will be ultra-popular. Do what you want with that info. I think you need him in cash games, and obviously coming in near the field is fine in any format.
I would probably lean underweight versus overweight, if I had to choose though, because he still is only 50 percent implied to win, at best, on short notice. And you just have so many other ways to be unique if you don’t play Sopaj. Even in small field tournaments, he could get steamed even higher, so fading him there might be the better strategy, though it’s a risk.
Oliveira could carry a ton of leverage on this slate, but most will see that as an opportunity as well.
He’s 8.6k and a bit overpriced. But he does carry a +145 ITD line and he’s aggressive at times to a fault. He’ll likely hunt for the early KO here.
I don’t really think he’s gonna get it, to be honest, because I like Sopaj’s defense. Even as a wrestler/grappler, I don’t think Oliveira will have a ton of success. He seems like a moments fighter and for DK purposes, he’s going to be boom or bust.
But given the potentially extreme leverage, where a win for Oliveira could result in a quick KO, obviously he’s a great tournament play. Having exposure here makes sense and it’s one good way to be unique.
I also think fading this fight outright makes some sense for large fields because I do think Oliveira’s optics will be better. He’ll be aggressive and he’ll throw hard. Unless that results in a KO, he won’t score many points though, but I still could see him winning rounds.
So I think there’s a world in which this fight extends, Oliveira wins, but doesn’t smash, in which case, the fight as a whole might bust. I expect heavy ownership on this fight as a whole so avoiding it in spots is another great way to be unique.
This is simply a tough situation to analyze. I’m just not sold that playing Sopaj heavily in tournaments does much for you.. even if he wins.. you’re still competing with such a big percent of the field. I do think he can win but the better strategy feels like going light on him and just hoping for the best.
Conversely, Oliveira doesn’t rate out well for me long term, but I do like his aggression and that will lead to some quick finishes. He’s a good boom or bust, secondary, leverage target this week.
Fight Prediction: Oliveira by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Javid Basharat vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Fight Odds: Basharat -822, Zahabi +550
Odds to Finish: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Basharat 9.5k, Zahabi 6.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am looking forward to seeing Javid Basharat get back in the Octagon this weekend as I have generally liked what I have seen from him thus far, and he’ll take on the surging Aiemann Zahabi.
Basharat is a solid striker. He controls distance well and is just super composed on the feet. He mixes in a healthy dose of kicks and punches. I also really like how he mixes it up to the body. He lands 5.65 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.50 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 63 percent.
Basharat is also a great defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 85 percent. Basharat showed awesome defensive grappling against Jones and Gravely. He stuffed all three of Jones’ takedown attempts quite easily. He showed advanced techniques like limp legging out of single legs, etc. His defensive grappling also looked awesome against Gravely. He got taken down a couple times but scrambled out beautifully.
Basharat can also mix in offensive wrestling himself and he has ruthless ground and pound. He lands 2.09 takedowns per 15 minutes which is solid. I also think he is a capable submission grappler with front chokes. He has several submission wins on the regional scene.
Basharat is simply a good fighter. He has a lot of offense and is great defensively. I like Basharat.
Basharat will be taking on Aiemann Zahabi. I am not particularly high on Zahabi as he just doesn’t produce a ton of offense. He is just a boring neutralizer which is my least favorite type of fighter to watch. He is somewhat technical though.
Zahabi mostly looks to box. He is competent as a striker. He just lacks output though. He lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.40 in return. He defends strikes at 72 percent which is great but it is mostly because Turcios shadow boxed in front of him for 15 minutes lmao.
Zahabi’s metrics aren’t good because of his unwillingness to throw offense. Again, I don’t consider him bad technically as a striker, but he is a candidate to be outworked. He was outlanded at distance in two of his three UFC decisions. He only landed 28 significant strikes against Vince Morales in a 15 minute fight which is kind of pathetic.
Zahabi does have moderate power though. He recently knocked out Drako Rodriguez and Aoriqileng. I still wouldn’t count on his power as he doesn’t seem like a major hitter and he doesn’t throw enough volume to consistently find knockdowns. However, I guess he is capable of some big moments.
As a grappler, Zahabi seems competent defensively. He defends takedowns at 75 percent and has scrambled up decently the few times I have seen him taken down. He doesn’t look like the best takedown artist though. He only lands 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and doesn’t seem like a guy to trust to land consistent takedowns in a fight.
As far as this matchup goes, I simply think Basharat is better everywhere. I like his volume more and I think he is a better wrestler as well. I think he will likely just be moderately winning the minutes of this fight by mixing in a healthy dosage of striking and wrestling. It will likely lead him to a decision win.
Zahabi’s best chance is landing a random knockout which seems unlikely given Basharat is tough and so hard to hit to the head. Maybe Zahabi can just be boring and neutralize and win a split decision as well? Still, his decision path to victory is limited given his lack of volume. If anyone dominates the minutes here, it will be Basharat and my guess is Basharat will be just a little too good for Zahabi.
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On DraftKings, I do not think many people will be interested to pay up for Basharat at 9.5k.
Like Jauregui last week, who came in at 15 percent owned, I am expecting a very low number on Basharat, which will put him firmly into the contrarian category.
He’s scored 99, 83 and 66 points in his three wins on DK, and none of those would be close to optimal on this slate, at this price. Basharat is -800 to win this week, but only +180 to win ITD, which is indicative of weak finishing equity.
I simply don’t think I can afford Basharat often this week, and when I do have the salary, I’ll want to consider Klein and Umar as well. Though, I do think being contrarian within this range is smart in tournaments, Basharat is just not my favorite option in that group.
While Basharat carries a fine floor, and still does have potential to dominate, there is just more early finishing equity elsewhere on the slate, much of which is priced more cheaply.
If you want to be very unique, you can target some Basharat, who should win and score fine. I am not convinced in his ability to top 110 DK points, and I’d rather save my money.
Zahabi at 6.7k is a tough fighter to analyze because he rates out as one of the better floor options in the bottom tier. This fight is -180 to go the distance and a fighter who could last 15 minutes at 6.7k could be super valuable on this slate.
I mean, we might not see many or any dogs win below 7.8k.. In fact, it’s potentially likely.. So I would not rule out a loser being optimal this week.
The issue is that Zahabi barely produces any offense. Barely any strikes, and minimal grappling. Basharat is also very defensively sound, so this is not a spot I really want to target.
I could see Zahabi landing 50 strikes and a takedown over 15 minutes, but that’s only 25 points in a loss. Perhaps that’s enough? You can also argue that it is probably worth it to take bigger risks on the boom or bust guys, hoping one pulls off an upset, though they will be higher owned
So I will make the case for Zahabi at 6.7k as a pure floor/punt option on a weirdly priced slate, but his point expectation is still minimal, and his ceiling is very questionable at +700. I likely won’t end up with much and I think the fighters priced below him are similarly fine options.
Fight Prediction: Basharat by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Claudio Ribeiro
Fight Odds: Duncan -317, Ribeiro +255
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Duncan 8.9k, Ribeiro 7.3k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am actually eager to see Christian Leroy Duncan back in the cage after knocking out Denis Tiuliulin a few months back, as he’ll take on the kill-or-be-killed Claudio Ribeiro this weekend.
Duncan is a British fighter who is 9-1 professionally, with his first 7 fights taking place in Cage Warriors, a decent regional promotion.
Duncan is a striker who is pretty dangerous at range. He doesn’t look to grapple much. He switches stances and mixes in a lot of kicks. He controls range pretty well and has knockout power. He is a bit hittable, and I do think as he gets steps up in competition, his striking will probably be exposed.
However, I do think he can win fights on the feet at this level and he is certainly dangerous. He lost to Armen Petrosyan but I honestly didn’t think he looked bad there. He was outlanded 77-58 at distance in that matchup but Petrosyan is a great striker. I thought Duncan performed fine there.
Duncan also has decent first layer TDD. It isn’t perfect, and I do think he will get exposed on the mat at some point. I have seen him held down here and there. Even Petrosyan took him down. However, he is tough to actually ground and keep grounded. He does get clinched up a lot though.
Overall Duncan is a fun action fighter who will have some fun striking battles in this division, and he is certainly a knockout threat.
Duncan will be taking on Claudio Ribeiro who knocked got into another dimension by Roman Kopylov in his last fight. He won his fight prior to that against Joseph Holmes by knockout. Ribeiro is 11-4 professionally and all 11 wins have come by knockout.
Ribeiro is definitely dangerous early. He has some wild loopy hooks that can knock people out if they connect. He can knock people out early at this level. Furthermore, he has some good leg kicks as well and they may be his best strike.
The issue with Ribeiro is that I don’t trust his striking for 15 minutes. He looks to slow down, and I don’t trust his technical striking defense either. He had success early vs Alhassan but was eventually knocked out and the same thing happened against Roman Kopylov. I just feel like this guy is the prototypical early KO reliant type of fighter, which I will basically pick against every time against any composed 15-minute striker.
That is why I have to go with Duncan in this matchup. Sure, striking is high variance and Ribeiro may land something big and it will probably have to come early. However, Duncan seems pretty tough and my guess is he survives. Duncan is also probably just more dangerous than Ribeiro even when these guys are fresh.
I also just think Duncan is the more talented striker with better defense and more athleticism. In an extended fight, my guess is Duncan will be slicker defensively and will land more strikes. I also just think he seems more durable with better cardio. I doubt grappling comes into play here.
This fight could be wild for a bit, but Duncan looks like the more talented striker and my guess is that he hurts Ribeiro at some point and knocks him out.
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On DraftKings, this should be a hectic fight but I do like the potential for it to end inside the distance at -400.
Ribeiro is just wild, but he lacks defense and durability, so I expect his fights to continue playing out as they have thus far in the UFC. Either he breaks his opponent early, or he gets broken.
Duncan feels like a pretty good target at 8.9k, especially considering the discount from the top end, and he might be a popular public target this week as well. He could be outright chalk as well.
He’s -160 to win ITD which is one the better lines on this slate, and he’s facing an opponent who’s been knocked out in both UFC losses. Duncan is the superior technical striker here, and I think it’s pretty likely he can land and eventually score that knockout.
At 8.9k, Duncan will still be boom or bust, but his chances of getting an early knockout are pretty decent, and I’d like moderate exposure to him personally.
I’m never going to be excited about Ribeiro because I think he’s a bad technical fighter with a style that won’t lead to many wins longterm. So I won’t be targeting him heavily this week.
However, he’s still likely to throw caution to the wind while hunting for a knockout, and so there’s always the chance he lands something big. He’s +285 to win ITD which is pretty good for 7.3k.
Ribeiro is an obvious target in the sense that his win condition likely comes in a quick KO, which would likely result in an optimal score. Because of that, feel free to use him as a secondary option or even a forced primary option if you need the salary relief. Having a share or two at 7.3k makes sense given the variance in striking exchanges alone.
Unfortunately, I may have to project Ribeiro as one of the chalkiest underdogs due to slate dynamics. We need at least one cheap fighter and I think the public will be most willing to target Ribeiro. He also rates out the best on paper.
That makes me nervous but I do think you want some upside in your portfolio, which Ribeiro has. Just know that you won’t be unique if you decide to punt with him.
I’d ideally like to continue with my longer term fade of the guy and aim to have minimal exposure, especially if he projects to be popular, but he’s hard to avoid completely and I get the upside strategy of rostering him.
Fight Prediction: Duncan by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Ludovit Klein vs. AJ Cunningham
Fight Odds: Klein -997, Cunningham +635
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Klein 9.6k, Cunningham 6.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
A guy I have never been totally high on, Ludovit Klein actually impressed me a bit in his recent win against Ignacio Bahamondes, and he’ll be looking to build on that performance against the short notice debutant AJ Cunningham.
Klein was able to strike competitively on the feet with the longer and bigger Bahamondes and hurt him at times. Klein also landed 3 takedowns and obtained 6 minutes of control. It was the best performance of Klein’s career thus far.
Klein is a bit of a freestyle fighter and he is a tough, seasoned fighter with a lot of experience. As a striker, Klein lands 3.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.53 in return. He defends strikes at 53 percent. Those are not good metrics. I don’t consider him a great striker and his striking volume is surely a concern.
However, Klein does have some power and can generally at least have competitive exchanges, which keeps him in the fight. He is competent and experienced as a striker and has outstruck guys like Devonte Smith, Mason Jones, and Ignacio Bahamondes. So he is decent as a striker. He has a good one-two out of the southpaw stance and has a sneaky head kick.
Klein can also wrestle a bit too. He lands 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of taking down guys and holding top position. He also defends takedowns at 83 percent which is solid.
Klein is just fine. He can strike a bit and wrestle a bit, has a lot of experience, and a bit of power. I still do have concerns with his striking volume and he does have a terrible loss to Michael Trizano. So he does have some flaws, but he is okay.
Klein will be taking on UFC debutant AJ Cunningham who is apparently a BJJ black belt, and a “cousin” to Bryce Mitchell as the two have shared a brotherhood within the gym. Cunningham is taking this up a weight class on short notice. So this is clearly an uphill battle for him.
Cunningham fought Steven Nguyen on the Contender Series last September and got the shit kicked out of him, and eventually the ref had to step in.
Cunningham is just so hittable on the feet. I do like that he is aggressive and will swing hard, but he is just not skilled or technical on the feet at all. He keeps his head on the centerline and is going to get knocked out in the UFC again. He is a knockout waiting to happen and just takes too much punishment.
Apparently Cunningham is a BJJ black belt and he does have some submissions on his record. The issue is that he isn’t a very good wrestler, and I don’t think his grappling even looks very good. He can be taken down himself too.
Overall I just don’t think Cunningham is UFC level. He is probably reliant on winning by random finish at this level. He just isn’t good at anything and has no defense.
I have to go with Klein here. Klein is more technical in every area and is the much more experienced fighter in general. Klein should be able to land very hard whenever he wants here, and my guess is it will result in a knockout. Klein could definitely mix in takedowns as well.
This is just a tough ask for Cunningham. He has no real quality wins and is taking this fight on short notice, up a weight class, against a much more experienced fighter. I would be pretty surprised if Cunningham won. He is going to have to just land something random.
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On DraftKings, everyone is priced up this week, so we have Ludovit Klein sitting at a whopping 9.6k tag, which makes him difficult to fit.
I also don’t love Klein as a talent, and never have. He’s relatively low volume, and not dominant anywhere. But he has surprised me in spots and he’s well-rounded enough to compete everywhere.
Clearly, at this price tag, Klein is going to have to demolish Cunningham to compete with the optimal lineup, and I am skeptical he does that.
It’s not that he’s incapable of it, I actually think a knockout is pretty likely. But Klein just does not throw in volume. He has been to decision five times, and he’s never topped 60 sig. strikes. So even in a KO win, Klein may not reach a ceiling, unless it comes very early. His first-round KO win in the UFC only scored 104 points, which I doubt would be enough on this slate.
I think Klein is fine… he’s safe based on his moneyline and he has a strong ITD line of -325. I don’t particularly trust it though. Cunningham is hittable, and it’s short notice, but he is tough and he’ll still be bigger than Klein..
I am going to pick Klein to win by KO but it’s hard to justify prioritizing him over other names in this range, and at best, I think he’s just a standard mix in if you have the salary to get up this far. Perhaps he has some contrarian appeal if he projects to be low owned, but his ITD line is the best on the slate, so I’m unsure that he will be overlooked.
Cunningham isn’t good, and won’t last in the UFC, but he is aggressive, can throw in volume, and will be bigger than Klein. If Cunningham doesn’t die in the Octagon, I could see him putting up a fair amount of points over three rounds.
As I’ve tried to state throughout the breakdown, you’re forced into cheap dogs this week. You should be prioritizing ones with better win and finishing equity, but they will be chalky and you may still need to punt.
Even though Cunningham rates out horribly, if he’s going to be unowned, I would roster him in large fields. Every dog on this slate might lose, at least those below 7.6k. And it may just come down to a few points in a loss, and pricing. At least Cunningham saves salary and is willing to throw, and he’s not the worst punt in the world because of it.
Fight Prediction: Klein by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Loik Radzhabov vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Fight Odds: Al-Selwady -178, Radzhabov +153
Odds to Finish: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Al-Selwady 8.4k, Radzhabov 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
The former PFL title challenger, Loik Radzhabov will be looking to rebound from his last loss against the newcomer Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady.
Radzhabov made his UFC debut against Esteban Ribovics in 2023 and barely escaped with a win, though he torched Ribovics on the mat, taking him down 11 times in 15 minutes.
He received a much needed step up in competition against Mateusz Rebecki last June, and was TKOd in the second round.
In these first two UFC performances, I think we’ve seen a fair version of what Radzhabov brings to the table. He’s a wrestling reliant fighter who has questionable striking skills, and a questionable gas tank.
Now he’ll face Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady, who is making his debut off a Contender Series win last August.
Al-Selwady is 15-3 as a pro, aged 28, and is fighting out of Fortis MMA. He’s earned eight wins by knockout and two wins by submission in his career, and has several appearances in the Brave and Fury FC regional promotions.
I don’t think Al-Selwady is a great prospect, and he honestly rates out similarly to me as Radzhabov.
Al-Selwady is clunky on the feet, and I do not expect him to have much success in striking exchanges at this level.
His recent tape looks a bit better than older tape, but he’s just not the cleanest technical striker, and he’s a bit defensively vulnerable. All three of Al-Selwady’s losses have come by knockout, and in the two more recent ones I watched, he was absolutely face-planted in the first round.
But he does carry some pop in his hands, and just won by decision on DWCS in a fight that mostly took place on the feet. So clearly, he can occasionally take damage too.
Durability is a tough thing to predict in general. I’m fairly confident he’ll be KOd again, but who knows when that will be.
Otherwise, Al-Selwady is a pretty aggressive wrestler. In some of his recent decision wins, he’s just on top of his opponent for the entire fight. Taking them down over and over again, controlling them, and landing a lot of ground-and-pound.
I do really like how aggressive he is with ground-and-pound and he has several TKOs via GnP. His submission grappling looks OK, nothing special, and it will likely just depend on the level of grappler he is facing.
This matchup is sketchy because both fighters may want takedowns, and there’s not a large sample on Al-Selwady having to defend takedowns.
Honestly, I think you can make the case that Radzhabov is both a better wrestler and a better boxer than Al-Selwady.
This is a HUGE step down in competition for him from Rebecki, and Radzhbov is so experienced against a much higher level of opponent than Al-Selwady, who has barely had anyone defend him at all.
Radzhabov isn’t a great boxer, but he’s pretty comparable to Al-Selwady to me. Some basic power, not a ton of volume, and questionable durability.
The main difference in this fight though, is cardio. Al-Selwady looks like he has a ton of it, and he’s fought five rounds before.
Radzhabov’s cardio is hit or miss, and he did not look good in his last fight. Regardless of skill, I think it’s possible that Al-Selwady wins just by being the harder working guy, who will have more in his gas tank in the second half of the fight.
We shouldn’t trust either man in striking exchanges, and any upside would come from damage. I would project exchanges to be relatively even, and both guys could get hurt. I can’t fault you for favoring Al-Selwady but his volume and upside as a striker isn’t great longterm, so I’m hesitant to trust him even in a decent matchup.
The wrestling is just hard to project. Radzhabov probably can take Al-Selwady down.. And we know he has the volume to shoot a dozen takedowns over 15 minutes.
I’m just not sure if Radzhabov can hold him down. I’ve seen Al-Selwady scramble up once and he looked fine. Even if I project Radzhabov for three takedowns, I do wonder whether he can do enough with it to matter.
Conversely, I’m not sure if Al-Selwady can take Radzhabov down. He only landed one takedown on six attempts against a mediocre opponent on DWCS. He is likely to try and wrestle though, to some degree.
And IF Al-Selwady gets takedowns, it might just be downhill from there for Radzhabov. That will tax his gas tank, and he’ll probably eat shots on the ground. I could see Al-Selwady running away with the final round or even TKOing Radzhabov late.
I don’t rate Al-Selwady very highly and I don’t think this is a great matchup, but his willingness to wrestle at a high rate, coupled with a cardio edge, makes me lean toward him slightly overall.
On DraftKings, both sides of this fight could see a lot of ownership as people are desperate for salary relief.
I am guessing Al-Selwady will be pretty highly owned at 8.4k, as a near -180 favorite. That feels like decent value, and people will be willing to target him as a newcomer, facing an opponent who just got finished.
I don’t think there’s any sort of guarantees with Al-Selwady, but it’s possible that a win for him comes with takedowns, control, ground strikes and a finish, so I am still interested in his ceiling.
He is only +220 to win ITD, so maybe folks will want to stay away in some regard. He’s just a decent moneyline value at this price, with a reasonable floor in a win. If Radzhabov gasses out, Al-Selwady could maul him and put up a smash score.
Basically, I am going to play Al-Selwady at 8.4k, but mostly because I have to. If you’re targeting Sopaj, the next highest priced guy above Al-Selwady is Duncan at 8.9k.. It’s one of the reasons why I will project high ownership.
I’m not going to think too hard about this one. It’s probably not the best place to take a major stand against the field based on how constructions work. I’ll have moderate exposure and he’ll be moderately owned. There’s definitely some risk of him losing or failing to produce early though, so I don’t mind chasing finishing equity nearby.
Radzhabov could be a leverage target at 7.8k but he honestly may be popular too. You can’t just play one cheap underdog and make a lineup work.
Yes, many will play Al-Selwady but many will also play Gaziev and Oliveira, and then the only dog option with any win equity whatsoever is Radzhabov.
He’s +153 to win and we’ve already seen him land 10 takedowns in a fight. Feels like an obvious spot, and I’d rather play him + 1 big dog than avoid him and only play 2 big dogs.
Essentially, you’re likely also playing a good amount of Radzhabov because you have no other choice. I am not convinced he wins, but a win will come with takedowns and will likely produce an optimal score. Even a loss with 40 points could be optimal.
If somewow Radzhabov projects to be low owned, then I would aim to be overweight here as the fight could be competitive, but otherwise, he’s just a strong secondary target who may get a decent chunk of public ownership by default.
Fight Prediction: Al-Selwady by Decision (Confidence=Low)