UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov (8/3/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Fight Odds: Nurmagomedov -325, Sandhagen +261
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Nurmagomedov 9.2k, Sandhagen 7k
Weight Class: 135
The bantamweight division is stacked with talent at the top and we have some incredible matchups coming up, including this weekend’s title eliminator between Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov.
Sandhagen is a veteran of the division who has already competed once for a title, and I’m a huge fan of him personally. He reminds me of Belal Muhammad in a way where he’s not an elite physical specimen, and doesn’t carry one-punch KO power.
But he’s very well-rounded and capable of producing offense at a high rate, and will always be a factor on a round-by-round basis.
Sandhagen currently lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.40 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. We’ve seen him top out at 169 sig. strikes landed over five rounds in his title loss to Petr Yan in 2021, which is a pretty impressive mark despite the result.
Sandhagen can also grapple pretty well. He averages 1.36 takedowns though that’s a bit aided by his most recent performance against Rob Font, where Sandhagen landed seven takedowns.
Otherwise, he’s capable of mixing in takedowns but his primary path to victory will be volume kickboxing.
It’s more than the basics though, as Sandhagen has great footwork and movement, making him very difficult to hit cleanly. He’s crafty with his arsenal as well where he will attack with all eight limbs, highlighted by his flying knee KO against Edgar in 2021.
Sandhagen is also just down to scrap man. He’s a real fighter. Most of this division has been avoiding Umar Nurmagomedov for reasons we’ll touch on soon, but Sandhagen has been more than willing to get into the cage with him. It’s been the same case with Merab, though we’ll see Merab fight for a title soon against O’Malley.
Overall, Sandhagen is a very tough task to deal with. He’s tough and well-rounded with great cardio, and he’s usually thoughtful about the method in which he’ll attack.
His main problem, unfortunately, is that he falls just short of the top tier in terms of pure effectiveness. He has landed a few knockdowns over the years, but his success will more often come with attrition rather than brute force.
The mid-level athleticism just means he’s also less likely to push around the top tier of fighters, where he’ll struggle to land takedowns, and possibly struggle to land takedowns himself.
Clearly, that’s where Umar Nurmagomedov will look to attack.
Umar is the cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov and trains out of the same camp, and he’s the brother of Usman Nurmagomedov who’s the current Bellator lightweight champion.
He’s an outstanding grappler and has never lost, holding a 17-0 record that includes five wins in the UFC. Most of his fights haven’t been competitive.
Nurmagomedov lands 4.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and is skilled as a wrestler, scrambler and jiu-jitsu player. You just don’t really want to entangle with him on the mat.
However, I will note that he has not been the best finisher, compared to some other fighters out of that camp. Umar has won three of his five UFC fights ITD which includes two subs, but he’s also failed to submit multiple opponents while earning mass amounts of control.
He’s not the most physical fighter either, which I think will be most interesting if he ends up facing someone like Merab. And I think there’s potential that when Umar fights the elites of the division, his wrestling won’t look as strong based on his mid-tier athleticism.
The more likely outcome, however, is that his wrestling is simply too good to stop. At least in this matchup, where Nurmagomedov will face an opponent with similar mid-tier athleticism.
Sandhagen can grapple well, but he only defends takedowns at 64 percent, and he doesn’t have the explosive tools necessary to outright stuff shots. He’ll find himself in clinch situations often and has been forced to scramble, where perhaps he can survive.
But I do think Umar will be able to enter in on shots with ease, and the bigger question is whether he will be able to scramble into top position and hold onto it for long enough amounts of time.
Also, I suppose he has some submission upside. Sandhagen is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu but he was submitted by Aljamain Sterling in 1:28 back in 2020. Sterling is a great ground fighter too though.
In other appearances, we’ve seen Sandhagen give up four takedowns to Assuncao, two to Dillashaw and two to Yadong. Again, he doesn’t often get held down for long periods of time, but he will give up the initial shots.
It makes things interesting because Sandhagen is clearly more capable than anyone Umar has fought to date. Sure, we can project him for a handful of takedowns but unless he’s just holding the back for long periods of time, I’m not convinced Sandhagen won’t just force his way back up to the feet.
From there, Sandhagen can absolutely win.
The striking dynamic is somewhat complex too though because like his fellow teammate Islam Makhachev, Nurmagomedov isn’t absorbing any strikes. That’s partially because his fights take place on the ground, but partially because he’s a high-volume kicker at distance and is choosing engagements where he’s not in a ton of danger.
Only 41% of Umar’s fights take place at distance compared to the 65% of Sandhagen, but at distance, Umar is landing 4.7 strikes per minute while absorbing only 1.2. Nobody has really been able to touch him.
There’s been one exception though and that was his most recent fight against Almakhan, who actually dropped Umar with one of the first exchanges. It wasn’t a brutal knockdown or anything, but he did drop him and Umar eventually scrambled his way into a takedown.
We just haven’t seen Umar take a lot of damage though and so I do wonder if he’s forced to strike and forced to eat a lot of shots, can he take them? Can he survive? Or is he just dependent on winning striking exchanges where he’s completely leading the dance? I know that Sandhagen can take shots.
It’s still going to lead me to favor Nurmagomedov outright because the facts are the facts, he gets hit very rarely on the feet and that’s a great sign for a grappler because it’s going to extend their chances of grappling.
Perhaps Nurmagomedov can even win the striking exchanges, though I wouldn’t expect them to be dominant. Speed will be an advantage for him early but I’m unsure if he can carry that over five rounds. It is possible that if Sandhagen can survive and force striking exchanges, that Nurmagomedov will tire and Sandhagen will become more effective as the fight progresses.
I’m really open to many outcomes of this matchup because I really respect Sandhagen as a fighter. He’s not the best in the world but he’s not far off.
Umar has an elite skill set via grappling though which is hard to overcome, and I think it’s reasonable to lean toward him once again finding a way on top, limiting the striking and getting his hand raised.
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On DraftKings, Nurmagomedov is priced up to 9.2k and he’s definitely my favorite target on the entire slate.
As we’ve seen recently, there are ways for grapplers to fail, but Nurmagomedov should carry an elite floor and ceiling in this matchup over five rounds. He’s already put up scores of 118, 114, 105, 105 and 112 in the UFC which includes two decisions, and it’s tough to imagine him falling and scoring much worse than that over five rounds.
The worst case scenario would probably be something where he lands an early takedown, finds an early finish but misses out on the first-minute bonus, and scores around 100. He’s only +185 to win ITD though which isn’t great for a five-rounder.
And over five rounds, if Nurmagomedov wins, he seems very likely to surpass 100 points with ease and compete for the highest score on the slate outright.
He will definitely be popular though. You can make a case for other fighters in this top range too, but it’s tough to make the case that anyone is a better target outside of the ownership angle, which is still important.
My assumption currently is that Nurmagomedov will be a clear public stand out, and he could be far and away the most popular fighter on the slate, exceeding 50 percent ownership. He will still be worth targeting based on his ceiling, but just know that he will be the top priority for most everyone.
I personally would rather play a lot of him, and find somewhere else to be unique, rather than fading him. You can still make an underweight case if you want to aggressively target a pivot, which is never a horrible idea just based on game theory. I would much, much rather do that in a striking based matchup though.
Umar has already landed five takedowns multiple times and he could easily reach or surpass that number here. I won’t get to 100 percent exposure of course but ultimately Nurmagomedov is the top play on this slate in all formats and I think it’s pretty clear.
Sandhagen at 7k is a great target as well but only for leverage purposes.
While he’s a fantastic talent and can produce offense everywhere, this is not a matchup where he will carry a safe floor. If Nurmagomedov is having any success at all, Sandhagen will either be held down on his back, or struggling to chase Umar down on the feet.
The outcome you’re hoping for is for Sandhagen to completely neutralize the grappling, force striking exchanges, take over and probably pour on offense for a late stoppage or close decision. I do think that’s possible and I’m willing to play some Sandhagen for it, especially due to the leverage we’ll get, but he is only +425 to win ITD.
And unlike last week where I thought Muhammad could score well even in a loss, I don’t see much of a floor case for Sandhagen and so ultimately if you’re convinced Umar is winning this fight, you may rather find some lesser owned dart throws as a way to build your portfolio.
I will probably end up using Sandhagen as a “light” secondary target at 7k, as I think the leverage he provides is pretty important, as is the five-round upside for the price. But I’m not expecting to find myself highly exposed to him and I think the better play at the moment is to pivot away and take some larger risks on dogs in the surrounding price tier.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Fight Odds: Magomedov -255, Oleksiejczuk +211
Odds to Finish: -215
DraftKings Salaries: Magomedov 9k, Oleksiejczuk 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The co-main event slot is filled this week by a short notice clash between the streaking Shara Magomedov and the pressure oriented Michal Oleksiejczuk. This should be a striker’s delight, let’s dive in.
Shara Magomedov made his highly anticipated debut last October, when he took on Bruno Silva in a fight that showed flashes of brilliance, but also left some questions unanswered.
As you can see (although he might not be able to, as he only has one eye), Shara “Bullet” is a pretty intimidating and interesting prospect. From his different coloured eye to his ragged ginger beard to even his public rap sheet, Shara is certainly someone who grabs the attention of the fans. He backs that with a diverse striking arsenal and truthfully devastating power.
He is undefeated with 11 of his 13 wins coming by way of knockout. He added to that number in June when he knocked out Antonio Trocoli in the third round. Magomedov is not your traditional “ov” fighter. He has yet to attempt a TD in the UFC and does not have a submission to his name.
Although he has fought in a couple grappling tournaments, he truly wants to keep this fight on the feet where he has a very diverse arsenal of strikes. Shara absolutely loves his fancy kicks. He averages 7.1 strikes landed per minute and a majority of them are flashy kick attacks from range. He has very fast in and out movement and solid power behind his strikes. He also is incredibly accurate, landing at an impressive 74% clip in his small UFC tenure.
At range, he is a true problem as not many are able to contend with his distance management and moment winning ability. But he is hittable if you close the distance, as he has only a mere 35% striking defense and allows a shot to give a couple back. His ground game has been a major flaw as he does accept bottom sometimes, although he does try to accumulate damage from down there as well.
Overall, Shara Magomedov is an extremely flashy and dangerous kickboxer who has solid power, distance management and accuracy. He has yet to truly face adversity or a higher level of competition and we do have to see more of his ground game, but he is a true threat while this fight is on the feet.
Michal Oleksiejczuk looks to get back into the win column after suffering a submission loss to Kevin Holland back in June at UFC 302. In fact, he got his arm snapped in an armbar then, leaving us to wonder how he is doing on such a quick turnaround. That fight added to a slew of losses for Michal, as “Hussar” is 1-3 in his last four, having been submitted in all three of those losses.
The polish veteran is 7-6 inside in the UFC since his debut in 2017, and he has been in plenty of fun fights. In fact he has only been to decision twice in his 13 UFC bouts, which includes knockouts in 6 of his 7 wins. He is a primary striker with solid volume, averaging 5.07 strikes landed per minute. On the feet, he will look to pressure, push his opponents against the cage and swing away with heavy hands.
He also loves to attack multiple targets, as exemplified when he worked the body of Shamil Gamzatov in their bout. He also has solid durability to get into firefights on the feet, although we did just see him dropped by a body shot earlier this year.
The big red flag for Michal is that ground game. He has been submitted in each one of his last three losses, and he’s been subbed five times within the UFC. With only a 48% TDD, he is easily taken down and once on the mat he not only makes many mistakes, but he struggles to get up.
This isn’t helped by his recent change of camp that has him training with friends instead of proper training partners, but the path has always been there to succeed against Michal; take him down.
Overall, Michal is a solid pressure boxer with great power, volume and body work. Although he can be a threat on the feet for all fifteen minutes, he struggles on the mat and can be kept at bay with an offensive skillset limited to boxing attacks. He will have to shore up that ground game and look to implement different layers to his game if he wants to make a run here in the UFC.
At the end of the day, we do have ourselves a surprise co-main event fight from two fighters potentially trending in different directions. Yes, this should be a primary kickboxing bout which will make Michal happy, but he is still someone who is 1-3 in his last four.
The confidence seems to be waning from Oleksiejczuk and although I like to watch his forward pressure and heavy hands along the fence, there are glaring holes in his game. Not only is the ground game a major red flag, being the primary reason for many of his losses, most notably when he got his arm snapped by Kevin Holland just a few months ago. But he is someone also very one dimensional. Yes, Michal will have the high level experience and does have fight ending power. But It will be Shara dictating the distance at which this fight takes place, scoring off of his flashy kicks, and offering more potential KO upside.
I also believe that if needed, Shara does have the better pure BJJ, having competed in recent tournaments. He is certainly no grappler by trade, but the TDD and poor decisions on the mat from Michal lead to a potential opportunity for anyone, especially those with the name ending in “ov”.
Finally, although I do not want to speculate too much, I do think there is a clear A-side in this matchup. Not only is Shara the fan favorite on the winning streak, but Michal has been losing confidence. He posted himself on instagram a few days ago, that he will “probably lose this fight” and go to KSW. Not what you want to hear from someone who’s best chance is utilizing his confidence, walking forward and closing the distance here.
So at the end of the day, although Michal does have the experience edge and a potential path to victory within boxing range, I do think more times than not it is Shara who dictates the range with his kicks, wins minutes and moments with his flashy style, and threatens finishes from range. Michal will have to weather the storm from the outside to be able to reach the chin, and I think that is easier said than done, especially for someone lacking the confidence amidst a losing streak. Give me the one eyed bandit to go out here and continue the hype train this weekend.
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On DraftKings, I’ll be curious to see how many people jump back on the Magomedov bandwagon after a disappointing result when he was a smash value earlier this year.
To be fair, he still scored 94 points, which looks fine on his box score paired with a 97-pointer in his UFC debut. It certainly was not as convincing of a performance as many were hoping for though.
Now he’s facing Oleksiejczuk who has officially never been knocked down in the UFC which spans 22 rounds. And without that early KO outcome, Magomedov will have a tough time producing an optimal score at 9k.
I still think he’s capable of it. Like Gordo mentioned, Oleksiejczuk was recently hurt with a body shot, and Magomedov is simply dangerous enough that he’ll always have some KO equity. He is actually -135 to win ITD here which is pretty strong for the price.
And I guess it’s a positive that despite winning one decision one third-round TKO, Magomedov has scored in the mid-90s both times. He’s producing enough offense to theoretically be a pure boom or bust target. I would still label him boom or bust though, because without a finish, his chances of reaching 100 points feel pretty slim.
I don’t think I will outright prioritize Magomedov this week, as there are multiple high-end grappling options priced right above him, as well as a couple of similar KO options. But Magomedov is fine and he’s priced cheaper than those other names, and it wouldn’t be wrong to favor him over a Gaziev or Fernandes type.
If you cannot pay up to the very top, I don’t mind taking chances on Magomedov. I think he’s capable of a KO. I also would lean against targeting him heavily for the reasons explained above, and will probably aim to be near the field myself, or even a bit underweight if you like the other KO options better.
Oleksiejczuk at 7.2k is viable but I’m not sure how viable.
He isn’t likely to wrestle, and knocking out Magomedov feels like a tough outcome. He’s +425 to win ITD which isn’t great. He doesn’t produce a ton of volume typically and he will be at a disadvantage at kicking distance.
He does have decent pressure and his boxing is pretty dangerous. There’s at least a path due to variance in striking exchanges. He’s likely getting the fight he wants, so I can’t fully count him out.
It just doesn’t feel like a great matchup for Oleksiejczuk to win or reach a ceiling, and that’s why he’s priced where he is. While I won’t rule him out, he’s not a favorite of mine this week and I prefer some other options in this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Magomedov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Fight Odds: Figueiredo -138, Vera +120
Odds to Finish: +215
DraftKings Salaries: Figueiredo 8.4k, Vera 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a hilarious matchup here as Deiveson Figuereido will be taking on Marlon Vera. I say this is hilarious because these guys are both guys who have terrible metrics and terrible round winning skills.
However, their durability is crazy and so is their finishing skills. So they tend to just stick around in fights and put their opponents in danger more often than not. So we have a bit of a mirror match in a way even though these guys do fight a bit differently.
Figuereido is very dangerous and we all know that. He can hurt just about anyone and has a dangerous guillotine choke. He is also super athletic and is well-rounded. He can strike, and he can wrestle.
However, his metrics aren’t great. He only lands 3.01 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.38 in return. He does land 1.65 takedowns per 15 minutes though. He only defends takedowns at 58 percent, but is an explosive and capable scrambler.
I always just get nervous picking Figuereido because he tends to have low moments of activity on the feet. We have seen him lose fights because of this. However, he can always make up for that by hurting opponents with explosive movements. Those moments are hard to predict so I have always struggled picking his fights.
Figuereido will be taking on Marlon “Chito” Vera. Vera is a fighter that I was always a bit skeptical of. His metrics aren’t great and they are even worse now after being on the wrong end of an absolute beating from Sean O’Malley.
Vera lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.48 in return. So he is getting hit a lot more than he lands, and he also doesn’t have the best striking defense as he only defends strikes at 50 percent. He is also not a guy who will land a lot of takedowns as he only lands 0.53 takedowns per 15 minutes.
However, Vera generally outperforms his metrics for a few reasons. First, he has elite durability. He has 33 professional fights, has fought some good fighters, and he has never been finished in his career. So he basically only loses by decision which gives him 15 minutes to make something happen.
Second, Vera is dangerous. So when you couple his danger with his durability, he generally has 15 minutes to find a finish. He does have TKO and submission upside as well so he can sometimes finish fights even when he is losing.
Third, Vera has great cardio, pressure, and pace… and he knows it. He uses his cardio as a weapon and when you combine it with his danger, he can really hurt opponents and change the tide later in fights.
I still don’t totally trust Vera against guys with good cardio, skills, and durability. I just feel like he will kind of get out skilled and lose those types of fights, which happened vs Cory Sandhagen and Sean O’Malley recently. However, if fighters have durability or cardio issues, they are definitely at risk to lose against Vera.
I am really struggling picking a winner here. Figuereido is likely the stronger wrestler of the two with more top time upside. However, I don’t really think he is going to take Vera down easily and hold him there.
So I honestly think the winner of the striking will win this fight. On the feet, these guys are obviously both flawed but dangerous. I guess either guy could hurt each other. I do tend to trust Vera’s durability more. I also just think if anyone has a cardio edge here, it will be Vera. He tends to just constantly attack and pressure more. So it may just result in more consistent offense than Figuereido. I am honestly leaning toward Vera for those reasons.
However, I just have to say I am not confident here. My gut feeling tells me whoever hurts who more is going to win, and it is hard to guess. I still tend to like Vera’s durability and consistent pace and cardio more. So I will pick him, but this is a really strange and tough fight to predict.
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On DraftKings, despite the higher-profile matchup, I’m not extremely interested as I think there’s a strong chance the fight extends.
It’s currently lined at -275 to go the distance, which makes sense considering the toughness of both.
I will slightly differ from Tim’s take on Figueiredo in that I actually think he may wrestle here. He was clear in his intention to wrestle against Rob Font in his first bantamweight matchup, and he most recently took down Garbrandt and submitted him.
Now he’s been training with Khabib ahead of this fight, and Vera at times has been taken down and held down with ease. In total, I think there’s a good chance Figueiredo wrestles some and that could be the separator.
I’m still not sure he does much with it. Vera is very comfortable from his back and could even threaten with a submission. Figueiredo is still only +600 to win ITD which is actually insanely bad.
He’s priced cheaply enough at 8.4k where it’s still borderline if he wrestles. A handful of takedowns and control could outperform his salary. But I’m not expecting a crazy volume of strikes, and unless he gets a finish, Figueiredo probably won’t reach a ceiling.
I don’t want to completely rule him out because I can foresee a decent score with wrestling involved but he’ll be a secondary target at best, if not a lean toward a fade due to questionable offensive production and finishing equity.
Vera at 7.8k could be viewed as the preferred target.
I do agree with Tim that if the fight solely takes place on the feet, Vera can definitely win. Vera does throw more than Figueiredo and probably has better cardio and durability as well.
I don’t think Figueiredo is going to absorb strikes at a crazy rate though, and Vera doesn’t really wrestle. Without a finish, 80-100 significant strikes isn’t really worth it at 7.8k.
Vera does rate out better from a finishing standpoint though at +300 to win ITD. He definitely can win the fight. I don’t hate him at this number.
I also don’t love him and there’s no reason to necessarily project a quick finish. While win equity is nice, I feel better about some other ceiling spots and would ultimately consider Vera a lower end secondary target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vera by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
Fight Odds: Chiesa -586, Ferguson +424
Odds to Finish: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Chiesa 9.5k, Ferguson 6.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
In a puzzling matchup, we have a potential loser leaves town match here as Michael Chiesa will be taking on Tony Ferguson. Chiesa has lost three straight fights while Ferguson has lost a whopping seven straight. It is safe to say that both guys are in desperate need of a win.
I historically don’t mind Chiesa. He at least has a process to his game. Chiesa is a grappler, plain and simple. He lands a solid 3.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at 50 percent. When he gets on top, he is a pretty solid passer and can threaten with submissions. He actually has a submission win over Beneil Dariush, which is one of the more impressive submission wins for any fighter in the UFC that does not get talked about enough.
I think the best part of Chiesa’s game is his control on top. He can pass and he can threaten with submissions. However, he won’t chase a submission to sacrifice position which is great. He is generally a good decision maker at keeping top position, which is very important in grappling fights as the top player generally wins the rounds.
He controlled Neil Magny for 15:21 in a 25 minute fight and RDA for 10:03 in a 15 minute fight. So he obviously has pretty good control, and I do tend to think that his top control game has improved since his early time in the UFC. He was way more reckless back in the day and would lose position a bit more. Chiesa is also just a decent scrambler in general and can work up from bottom position.
Chiesa does have weaknesses in his game though. His striking is poor and he only lands 1.87 significant strikes per minute. So if he gets stuck at range, he will likely not win, and he looked pathetic on the feet against Kevin Holland in his last matchup.
However, Chiesa does a very good job of staying out of range when he is at distance. He will then attempt a takedown and either get it or clinch up. So it is sometimes really hard for his opponents to get their strikes off. It shows in his numbers too as he only absorbs 1.70 significant strikes per minute. That was the main reason why I picked him to beat Magny. I just kept noticing that Chiesa does not really engage on the feet and is limiting his opponent’s offense.
It showed in that fight too. Magny only landed 12 significant strikes in a five round fight which is kind of insane. Magny had landed over 60 significant strikes in his four previous THREE round fights. So Chiesa is objectively hard to hit.
Again, I don’t think Chiesa can reliably win fights if he gets stuck at range the entire time, but if he is stuck for a minute here and there, he can mix it up with clinching and takedowns.
The other issue with Chiesa’s game is that he has been submitted five times in the UFC and three of them have come by D’Arce choke. I just hate when grappling dependent fighters get submitted. He has no business getting submitted by the same submission that many times regardless of the competition.
Chiesa will be taking on Tony Ferguson. I kind of feel sorry for Ferguson. He was such a winner for so long and now he has lost seven straight fights. A loss here for Ferguson against Chiesa will give him the record for the longest losing streak in UFC history with 8. It is just hard to trust Ferguson given he is 40 years old now.
I mostly consider Ferguson a striker, and I think that is where his strength is. In his prime, he could push a pace on the feet and could overwhelm opponents with cardio and volume. He lands 4.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.41 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent.
In his prime, I considered Ferguson quite good. He just had an unorthodox and effective striking style. It is hard to trust his historical metrics though and I doubt he will ever look like he once did.
Ferguson is a very overrated grappler though imo. He only lands 0.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and only defends takedowns at 67 percent. I played Dariush heavily against Ferguson because I believed Ferguson was an overrated grappler then and I still believe it now. People used to think he was a BJJ wizard with his 10th Planet BJJ pedigree and I was never sold on it.
Submitting a gassed out Kevin Lee and Lando Vannata does not impress me.
We saw Ferguson fight good grapplers in Dariush, Oliveira, Chandler, Green, and Pimblett and he had absolutely nothing for them on the mat from a wrestling or positional perspective. I think he needs to win fights on the feet, or with his pace, or by random finish to win at this level now.
The main concern with Ferguson is that he is just old and has taken a lot of damage lately. He was in a war with Justin Gaethje. He also got knocked into orbit against Michael Chandler which was one of the most absurd front kick KOs that I have ever seen. It is hard to completely trust Ferguson after taking that much damage.
He also looked horrible in his recent matchup vs Bobby Green. He didn’t look good vs Pimblett either. He is much older now, and I can’t expect him to be at his best anymore.
As far as this matchup goes, Chiesa is the rightful favorite because of his wrestling and top time upside alone. He is a much better wrestler than Ferguson especially at this stage of their careers. My guess is that Chiesa can land takedowns and rinse and repeat en route to a decision victory.
There still are concerns for Chiesa though. I basically never trust Chiesa on the feet and Ferguson is honestly probably better there. Furthermore, Chiesa has been susceptible to D’Arce chokes in the past and Tony Ferguson has multiple D’Arce submission wins in the UFC. Chiesa randomly gets finished a lot so if he faced some adversity and got randomly submitted by Ferguson, I wouldn’t be shocked.
Still though, Ferguson’s defensive wrestling and get ups are just so bad that Chiesa should win this fight with takedowns and control if he stays safe.
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On DraftKings, Chiesa is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k but he’ll be in consideration due to grappling upside.
I can’t lie and say that I love Chiesa in this spot because he’s a historically very untrustworthy fighter. He has no distance striking ability and is dependent on sub grappling, yet he will tap to submissions every chance he gets. It’s been a theme of his career and we’ve capitalized on it.
With that said, it’s tough to feel comfortable. Ferguson is the better striker, and Ferguson is actually known for locking in front headlock chokes like the D’arce which Chiesa has now tapped to in two of his past three losses. I could absolutely see a realm in which Ferguson wins this or has more success than expected.
At the same time, Ferguson hasn’t really looked strong in grappling exchanges lately. He gives up takedowns pretty easily and can’t get back up. He’s clearly washed, to a degree.
While Chiesa is dependent on grappling, at least he’ll go for it. And if he’s having success, he could score an absurd amount of top control time which has the potential to crush on DK too.
I’m still somewhat hesitant despite all this. Chiesa doesn’t land a ton of ground strikes historically. In his five round win over Magny he had about 70 non-sig strikes with 15+ minutes of control. Against RDA he had about 45 in 10+ minutes of control. Those only led to scores of 101 and 91 though.
Historically, Chiesa scores well but not extremely well. He’s put up 110 once in 11 UFC wins, and otherwise has scored 103, 101 and 101. It just makes me nervous in comparison to Umar priced below him, as I’m not sure Chiesa has a truly elite ceiling. He’s also only +110 ITD.
Again, if Ferguson is just washed and Chiesa can get on top of him from the start, he’ll likely put up 10-15 minutes of control with 3-5 takedowns and enough extracurriculars to reach 100 points. I’m just not sure if that will be optimal.
Ultimately, I won’t be prioritizing Chiesa over Nurmagomedov due to pure ceiling, but I do think Chiesa has paths to a 100+ score and that still puts him firmly in play. He’s probably got one of the safer outcomes on the slate given his ML and fighting style. He’s a strong target all things considered and I will have exposure to him, but perhaps not as much as I’d expect on first glance due to pricing and the strength of the top range.
Ferguson at 6.7k has paths to a win but it’s tough to recommend any major investment.
I do think he could win a striking based decision and I do think he has submission equity. He’s only +555 to win ITD though and I can’t bet on the submission. He probably finds himself on his back which will limit any real offensive production.
Essentially, Ferguson is a punt/dart for ownership and leverage. I don’t mind a bit of him in large fields but he’s the biggest dog on the slate and I’d rather pay up for more win equity when possible.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chiesa by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez
Fight Odds: Dern -110, Godinez +104
Odds to Finish: +190
DraftKings Salaries: Dern 8.2k, Godinez 8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
One of the hardest fighters to cap in WMMA, Mackenzie Dern will look to bounce back after getting knocked out by Jessica Andrade and then losing a close decision to Amanda Lemos.
I say Dern is hard to cap because she has had such inconsistent performances. Her performance against Angela Hill was incredible, and I was very impressed by her aggression in that fight. It made me think she had leveled up her skills in general.
Dern has then had other performances like against Amanda Ribas and Jessica Andrade where her takedowns and striking looked poor, and she got beat up badly. Her submission game is also so unique that it is hard to know when it will or will not work. So I have trouble calling her fights.
Coming from a world-class grappling background, Dern’s submission grappling is unmatched.
She has won by submission four times in the UFC and it is a realistic path to victory for her against anyone. Literally in any ground exchange, whether she is on bottom, top, or in transition, Dern can threaten with a wide array of submissions and sweeps. She is just super dangerous.
The issue is that Dern’s takedowns aren’t strong. She only lands 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at 15 percent. That is the biggest problem with her game, and we have seen her struggle to land takedowns and lose fights before.
Dern can just cause fights to end up on the ground with aggression though. She just marches down opponents with no fear of getting taken down and throws everything she has at them, and it sometimes causes opponents to panic or slip and give Dern the opportunity to find an advantageous ground position. It is a hard phenomenon to predict though.
Dern’s striking has improved. She only lands 3.31 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.09 which isn’t good. However, she is very tough and has underrated power. Her striking honestly looked better than ever in her matchup against Angela Hill as well. She hurt Hill and knocked her down, and just overwhelmed Hill with her aggression on the feet.
I still don’t fully buy Dern as a striker though and we saw her flaws against Andrade and Lemos. I have seen her look pretty subpar on the feet multiple times when her power hasn’t shown up.
Dern will be taking on Loopy Godinez. Godinez comes from a wrestling background, and I consider her an average wrestler for WMMA. Godinez lands 3.04 takedowns per 15 minutes and has the cardio to land takedowns for a full 15 minutes. I think Godinez can continue to beat below-average grapplers consistently at this level with volume wrestling alone. Godinez isn’t a great submission grappler though and only has a couple of submission wins in her career.
Godinez has some decent boxing and a bit of pop in her hands. I actually quite like her power and she has a strong overhand right. She lands 4.13 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.58 in return. She can have issues with experienced strikers but overall, I don’t mind her on the feet. I guess she is just average.
Godinez defends takedowns at 84 percent and has overall decent tdd. I liked the way she scrambled up against Calvillo and Lookboonme when taken down as well. She did have her back taken while standing a couple of times byJessica Penne.
However, they were kind of unique positions and I overall consider her defensive wrestling decent. It was good to see her defend all six takedown attempts in her matchup against Tabatha Ricci as well. She also stifled Jandiroba at times.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually think this fight may play out on the feet. Godinez could land takedowns if she felt like it, but I doubt she will want to go to the mat with Dern. It would probably put her in danger.
Conversely, I don’t think Dern’s wrestling is strong enough to consistently get Godinez down. So I tend to think this will stay standing unless something chaotic happens. I do think Dern has more grappling upside though as she could probably put Godinez in danger if she found a decent position.
On the feet, I honestly don’t trust either girl. Dern has just looked so good and so bad at certain times standing. She outlanded Hill 58-30 at distance which was fantastic and then just looked awful at other times like against Andrade and Lemos. Andrade and Lemos do have way more power than Godinez though so perhaps this is a fight where Dern can be very aggressive and not pay for it.
Godinez just isn’t trustworthy on the feet either. This girl just went 30-30 in distance strikes with Virna Jandiroba. I have always said Godinez’s striking is overrated. Yes, Godinez has an occasional good right hand, but other than that, she isn’t very technical and doesn’t have much depth.
I just think we are going to get a sloppy kickboxing fight where a random power shot could change everything. Both girls could probably hurt one another.
I am going to go with Dern just because I think she looked so great against Hill. Lemos and Andrade had enough power to make Dern pay for her aggression. Dern may be able to get back to that aggression here against Godinez and not pay for it. I also think she could take advantage of Godinez on the mat if the fight happens to end up there. This is close though.
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On DraftKings, I’ve basically given up trying to correctly predict Dern’s fights because I’m wrong more often than not.
It’s just tough to be sure when her wrestling is very poor, yet unlike others, she may only need one single attempt to finish the fight. And her striking has been super inconsistent but ultimately marred by very questionable defense.
Dern is obviously viable at 8.2k for her grappling upside. She’s +225 to win ITD and a submission could come in any round. She has scored in the 90s, low 100s and higher throughout a handful of submissions in her UFC career.
I am far from trusting that she’ll actually pull it off though, and leaning toward her not. Godinez isn’t a great defensive wrestler but she’s OK and she can whizzer out of positions and stuff. I’d feel much more confident in a different opponent taking her down, whereas Dern just flings herself into terrible attempts more often than not.
Still, of the two, Dern has the upside on DraftKings. She’s probably worth using as a secondary target and coming in near the field, and not overthinking the matchup. Fading her isn’t a terrible thought but it’s obviously risky, and coming in heavy on her in this matchup feels super risky as well.
If I had to lean toward a side though, it would be to come in light on exposure.
Godinez at 8k doesn’t interest me much. She can definitely win this fight but there aren’t many paths to her winning that will score well.
I don’t think wrestling is a realistic path even though she could land takedowns, she will put herself in trouble. Striking volume is certainly there but I don’t care too much about volume in a decision.
Godinez is also +850 to win ITD which is awful. Dern has been horrible defensively at times, and she’s been rocked and dropped a lot in the UFC, so there is some potential for KD equity with Godinez. But it’s also hard to compare Godinez to Lemos and Andrade who’ve been the main fighters to hurt Dern.
You can play a small amount of Godinez if you want, as she should be pretty low owned, hoping for the sneaky KD angle. It’s pretty tough to trust or recommend and with a more limited portfolio, I’d lean closer to fading her.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Godinez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener
Fight Odds: Alvarez -170, Brener +146
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Alvarez 8.3k, Brener 7.9k
Weight Class: 155
I’m prepared to be hurt again as one of my many nemesis Joel Alvarez returns to the Octagon to take on the tough Elves Brener.
Alvarez is 20-3 professionally with 17 wins by submission and three wins by knockout, and he’s earned five finishes within the UFC including his most recent victory over Marc Diakiese last July.
Sounds great right? Wrong.
I’ve been about as low on Alvarez as one can be considering his success, and I’ve paid for it dearly because he continues to prove me wrong.
My main issue with Alvarez is this. He’s a highly skilled submission grappler and brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and the vast, vast majority of his career success has come on the mat via submissions. However, he cannot wrestle.
In the UFC, Alvarez has fought seven times and he’s failed to land even one single takedown. He’s also given up eight takedowns in that span.
I simply cannot get behind fighters who cannot ensure their own path to victory. It feels like betting on a kickboxer who only wants to crawl around the Octagon on his hands and knees.
With that said, Alvarez has improved as a striker more than I expected and that’s played a role in his success as well. Largely, he’s been able to be aggressive so that opponents get uncomfortable and shoot in on him.
Alvarez is super long for the division, standing 6’3” with a 77 inch reach. His opponent this weekend is only 5’10” with a 72 inch reach. That kind of size discrepancy is certainly helpful if you can use it well.
Alvarez isn’t a phenomenal striker but he pretty easily beat up Thiago Moises for an early KO, and I thought he looked good against Diakiese in the first round as well.
It’s just annoying because even in his last win, Alvarez wasn’t looking as strong in the second round, but he and Diakiese clashed heads and Diakiese stumbled backward. While both Alvarez and Diakiese waited for the ref to stop the fight, the ref made them continue and Alvarez just shrugged his shoulders and jumped on a submission. Not Alvarez’ fault there but my point is that it’s tough to feel confident in that type of outcome being predictive.
Otherwise, Alvarez is just jumping on guillotines or guard subs. Again, he has not landed a takedown in the UFC and his wrestling was quite poor on the regional scene. He always ends up on his back and he somehow finds a way to escape and/or lock up a submission himself.
His two losses came against legit competition in Arman Tsarukyan and Damir Ismagulov. Tsarukyan took him down easily and beat the crap out of him on the mat for two rounds until the ref was forced to step in. Ismagulov just didn’t wrestle and easily outpaced Alvarez on the feet.
So, he can clearly be beaten. But it may take better technical strikers than expected, and more sound grapplers than I’d expect as well. His size, aggression and submission grappling combine for a dangerous game and it seems likely Alvarez will continue to have big moments that lead to stoppages.
Elves Brener came into the UFC as a BJJ player as well, with 11 of his now 16 wins coming by submission. However, it’s been his boxing and toughness that’s been a stand out in this promotion, and it’s led to three pretty crazy wins.
In his UFC debut, Brener was a massive underdog against Zubaira Tukhugov, and somehow edged out a close decision with boxing. Then he fought Guram Kutateladze, who beat him up badly for two rounds, but allowed Brener to mount a comeback late that led to a TKO upset. More recently, he knocked Kruschewsky out cold in the first round.
We’ve gotten to the point that it’s legitimately scary to fade Brener. He will throw hard and has power in his hands. He apparently has incredible cardio. His base grappling is decent and he’s hard to put away.
At the same time, losses for Brener feels due. His wrestling is not great, and so his offensive path to victory on the ground hasn’t been consistent. He was taken down by Kutateladze and held against the cage by Tukhugov, and I’m skeptical that his defense will continue to hold up.
On the feet, he’s absorbing nearly 5.0 sig. strikes per minute, and he was badly, badly hurt by Kutateladze.
Myktybek Orolobai was able to finally best Brener recently with a unanimous decision, however we saw the same glimpses of toughness that make it hard to count Brener out. He was again hurt early, taken down a bunch and dominated on the mat, but he survived and even mounted a comeback that had Orolbai mounted at the end of round two.
Round three was competitive as well, where Brener actually landed three takedowns of his own against a more tired Orolbai, which was very impressive. Orolbai hurt him again though too.
Overall, Brener’s history of getting beaten up but surviving makes him a tougher fighter to analyze, and I don’t find myself super comfortable in this matchup.
The length of Alvarez is still definitely worth noting. He should be at an advantage at distance and could easily hurt Brener given the amount of damage Brener has taken throughout his early UFC career.
Also, it’s not impossible that Alvarez could land a takedown. Brener isn’t incredible defensively.
But I just saw him survive again in dominant positions on the mat, and he is well-schooled there. Nearly all of Alvarez’ submissions come from the bottom or in transition, which makes his fights hard to predict as well.
I don’t know if Brener wants to wrestle here or not. I sort of expect that he might because of the length of Alvarez, and his background in grappling. That could either lead to some control, or it could lead to him getting choked out.
I feel like I need to favor Brener over the duration though, considering Alvarez has never won a decision in his pro career. Brener has now shown several times that he can fight hard late in fights. I’m not sure he easily controls Alvarez or outstrikes him but I like his cardio and he’s still been dangerous at times.
I also feel like I need to favor Alvarez in the early going. While fresh, he’s just a more dangerous fighter than Brener. He has KO equity and submission equity. Massive size advantage and we’ve seen Brener struggle defensively in nearly all of his fights.
I do respect Brener’s survivability a lot though, and that’s the main case for backing him to where he can fight harder over the duration and surprise people once again.
—
On DraftKings, Alvarez will rate out as the superior target due to early finishing equity.
He’s -105 to win ITD which is pretty strong for 8.3k, and his box scores have been decent. I only say decent because he’s failed to reach 100 points in four of his five finishes. That’s what happens when you do not wrestle and just jump on submissions from your back.
However, a mid-90s score would still be pretty strong and this price tag, and there’s still some upside for more. I can’t say I’m in love with Alvarez but I am fearful enough of his finishing ability to consider him at this price and in this matchup. Looking at the slate as a whole, I also think there’s a good chance Alvarez gets steamed here and ends up chalk at 8.4k.
I won’t be aiming to be overweight to the field, but this definitely feels like one of the better mid-range matchups. I will have enough exposure to Alvarez so that he doesn’t kill me at least.
Brener at 7.9k should be the leverage side but he’s a much tougher fighter to back on DK. His ITD line is much worse at +315 and finishing Alvarez definitely feels like a difficult task.
I’m just not even sure how much offense he can produce against Alvarez. Landing a lot of distance strikes seems tough. Takedowns are possible but then he probably will be forced to defend.
Still, if Brener wins, there is probably some scoring involved… and I’d guess some comes on the ground. His floor in a win seems decent for this reason but I have a tougher time backing him for a high ceiling.
At 7.9k, Brener is an OK play considering the fight dynamic, but with a questionable ceiling he’s only a mediocre secondary target. I don’t mind paying down further for similar risk and similar finishing upside, but given the leverage and total odds for the fight to end ITD at -210, Brener is viable and worth some exposure.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Alvarez by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Alonzo Menifield
Fight Odds: Murzakanov -213, Menifield +180
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Murzakanov 8.7k, Menifield 7.5k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues when the visually threatening Alonzo Menifield takes on the ever dangerous Azamat Murzakanov. Both fighters have a knack for knockouts, so let’s dive into what should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts.
Visually, Alonzo Menifield is a force to be reckoned with. The American is a ball of muscle and he exemplified that on the regional scene where he was able to smash through the low level of competition and reach the UFC unblemished. Since then he has had a bit of a tougher battle, but still holds an impressive 8-4 record in the UFC.
His winning streak of four was recently ended in May, when he walked into the power of Carlos Ulberg and was finished in 12 seconds. That has often been the biggest issue for Menifield. Although he has all the tools, he has struggled mentally in the cage with poor decisions and certain let down spots. I mean, this is the same man who lost to William Knight by decision!
When he’s on his game, he is solid. He has incredible power with a 87% finish rate and nine knockouts on his record. He isn’t the biggest volume machine as he only averages 3.92 strikes landed per minute, although that has served him well at times, including when he won an impressive striking decision over kickboxing veteran Dustin Jacoby last December.
On the mat, he does have solid wrestling. Against weaker opponents he’s been able to take them down and landed some vicious ground and pound, but he has also been taken down in his own right including six times by Jimmy Crute in their first matchup. He does only sport a 33% takedown accuracy so all signs point to him wanting to keep this on the feet.
The biggest issues for Alonzo have been not only his fight IQ, but also his durability and cardio. He has been knocked out cold by both OSP and Ulberg and aside from that hasn’t fought the heaviest hitters. His cardio has also failed him at times but he has seemed to work on this in the past.
Overall, Menifield is a tough person to break down. He has all the tools. Power, physicality, decent volume and a decent ground game. But he has struggled to put out a consistent product on a weekly basis. Because of that, it is hard to project his upside since we have seen so many flaws in his game, but I do believe he has the skill set to threaten anyone inside the Octagon.
He is a tough individual to trust and will have to work on his mentality and gameplans if he wants to succeed at the highest level of the UFC. Until then, he is not someone I want to be back with the utmost confidence.
Azamat Murzakanov is an undefeated Russian prospect sporting a 13-0 record. Unlike the name suggests, this “ov” fighter has had most of his success on the feet within the Octagon. He is 4-0 (including DWCS) and has three of those wins by KO. He most recently defeated former kickboxer Dustin Jacoby by decision in order to keep that record perfect.
He has mostly utilized his hands in the UFC, averaging 4.57 strikes landed per minute at a 57% clip. With those hands comes power, as he has nine of his 13 wins coming by way of knockout, including seven of those in the first round.
On the mat, he is able to rain down some solid ground and pound, although he has struggled in the UFC to get it there. He has a 16% TD accuracy inside the Octagon and has therefore been forced to strike because of it. Along the cage, I do like his control, as he was able to push Devin Clark along the fence and beat him up throughout the entirety of the fight.
On the feet, he has hand speed, power and volume. On the mat, he is able to take down and beat up weaker wrestlers. But I do not think he is a specialist in any area, aside from that power. We saw him lose minutes on the feet to Nchukwi until he found that flying knee, was able to bully a weaker and dejected Devin Clark and found the chin of Matheus Scheffel early. I have yet to see him really push through adversity or be put in dangerous situations and I still have questions on how he will react.
Despite that, he has shown good durability and decent cardio, although no one has really pushed the pace on him. Overall, he is a well-rounded prospect with solid striking, hand speed and offensive clinch game. He does have the ability to fight in all areas, as well as the power to finish the fight at any time. We have yet to see that resiliency or defensive ground game tested, but so far Murzakanov has passed every test thrown his way. I would love to see someone drag him into deep waters before trusting him at a high clip.
At the end of the day this is a fight between two guys who I do not have the most faith in. Murzakanov may be undefeated, but I do think he’s gotten away with some close calls. Losing minutes to Tafon and then giving up three minutes of control time to Jacoby are not the best signs. But he is well-rounded and powerful enough to swing the fight in his way. He has the ability to fight in all areas, land a big shot and even the volume to compete on the scorecards.
I do think Menifield checks all those boxes as well, but he doesn’t always execute his plan. Honestly, if we were able to control both fighters like we were playing the UFC 5 video game, I would favor Menifield’s size, physicality, level of experience and offensive wrestling. But without certainty of what Menifield will do, it’s hard to trust him.
I do have to give the volume edge and durability to Murzakanov. He will have opportunities to land that powerful shot and get his hand raised. But I think I am going to have the faith in Menifield to bounce back here and pull the upset. I think Menifield leg kicks from range and hooks on the inside can offer problems to Azamat the same way Nchukwi did. I also think Menifield is not only the fighter with the most power, but also the most physicality that Azamat has fought, allowing Menifield to potentially have grappling or cage pushing upside.
Although the seminal blow could be there for Murzakanov, I think that Menifield has the tools to win the minutes and optics here and pull off the upset. I have not been impressed by Azamat although it is hard to trust Menifield. I don’t blame anyone for going either way but I’ll be taking the dog shot at this line.
—
On DraftKings, I don’t feel particularly confident in either side.
Murzakanov is priced up to 8.7k and he’ll be a boom or bust target. I wouldn’t expect him to land much more than 80 strikes over 15 minutes, so he’ll either need an early KO or lots of additional grappling equity.
The wrestling is possible at least. Murzakanov can wrestle, he’s just not great at it. I do think 1-2 takedowns is possible but it’s tougher to project him to do much with them. Otherwise, Murzakanov is +110 to win ITD which is actually pretty decent.
It should be noted that he’s scored a KD in each of his three UFC matchups, and has underrated power. I’ve actually been pretty low on him in the past but he looked better than I expected in his win over Jacoby.
Menifield is bricked up physically but he typically slows down, and he’s been put out cold a couple of times. I could definitely see Murzakanov winning by knockout.
I don’t think I’m willing to make a major investment here but Murzakanov is a fine secondary target at 8.7k. He’s cheaper than the top tier and still offers upside in the construction. I probably wouldn’t aim to be aggressive and largely overweight to the field though.
Menifield at 7.5k has some KO upside but not much more.
He doesn’t really wrestle and he can’t produce a lot of offense because he’s so bricked up physically that he’ll slow down. He did recently hurt Jacoby in round three which helped him pull off the upset, but it’s worth noting Jacoby was -500 live with just a few minutes left to go.
Still, Menifield hits pretty hard, and I don’t think Murzakanov is a world-class athlete or striker. There’s enough variance in striking exchanges and in this division that I wouldn’t rule out Menifield having some power success.
He’s +285 to win ITD which is good for the price. If you want to use him as a secondary target, I have no problems with that.
I just consider Menifield’s floor pretty low. Even in a decision, without a knockdown, Menifield isn’t likely to clear 90 points.
I guess I’ll also mention that this fight is -200 to end inside the distance. Perhaps considering the lack of trust on both sides, it could be worth coming in overweight on the fight as a whole, hoping for a KO. You’re likely going to get some leverage against the field.
I just feel pretty uncomfortable backing either side. I’ll prefer Murzakanov especially as Menifield is coming off a 12-second KO loss, but I’d lean toward being neutral with the field on the matchup
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Murzakanov by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Mohammad Yahya vs. Kaue Fernandes
Fight Odds: Fernandes -392, Yahya +306
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Fernandes 9.3k, Yahya 6.9k
Weight Class: 155
Neither Mohammad Yahya nor Kaue Fernandes were able to make good in their UFC debuts, but both will have the opportunity to earn the first promotional win again on Saturday.
Yahya is 12-4 professionally at age 30, and he fights out of Abu Dhabi where he made his debut against Trevor Peek in October.
Peek is not a particularly talented opponent, though he’s quite dangerous with aggression. In some ways it’s a challenging matchup but in other ways not, and Yahya simply did not look great.
He allowed Peek to be the aggressor, throw more, and even land four takedowns which isn’t a huge part of Peek’s game. Outside of one close submission attempt in transition, Yahya didn’t really put up a fight.
It’s a pretty big concern for me for a fighter who specializes in kickboxing. Yahya has earned seven wins by knockout and two by submission, and I expect he’ll need to have success on the feet to win at this level.
I wouldn’t label him a major power threat though, and he’s only gotten a couple of knockout wins in his last eight bouts. He’s also not a major volume threat, and he only landed 43 significant strikes in 15 minutes in that debut.
As a grappler, Yahya has taken people down before but I don’t think he’s very good and based on what I saw against Peek, I don’t expect Yahya to have much success.
He just seems like a fighter who might be able to compete against lower levels of competition on a round by round basis on the feet, but I don’t think he’s fantastic there and he seems lacking in many other areas.
Kaue Fernandes is the better prospect, holding an 8-2 record at age 29, with four wins by knockout and two by submission. He lost his UFC debut to Marc Diakiese in a somewhat competitive fight in November.
I really did not like that performance though. Fernandes flashed some nice kicks, which I think is one of the best parts of his game, but he just wasn’t able to produce much offense.
He then got taken down a few times and was controlled for nearly nine minutes. Fernandes is a black belt in jiu-jitsu but he doesn’t look super dangerous, and both subs on his record were guard armbars against terrible opponents. When he gets on top, Fernandes has more upside.
He did land one takedown against Diakiese but wasn’t able to do much with it. While I think his takedown game is acceptable, it’s tough to believe he can make it work against good competition. And clearly there is some weakness to his defensive game, where despite the BJJ pedigree, he can be held down and neutralized.
On the feet is where Fernandes should excel. He’s had some brutal KOs on the regional scene. His two fights prior to entering the UFC were a first-round head kick and a first-round body kick. He’s pretty explosive and powerful with those legs.
However, in the fight prior to that, Fernandes lost a decision in a similar fashion to that of Diakiese. He had some moments early, but slowed down and couldn’t produce offense.
It’s not that Fernandes is completely boom or bust, but he clearly gets tired and just doesn’t have a great baseline of offensive production. He literally only landed 23 significant strikes in 15 minutes against Diakiese, and still almost won the split decision.
As of now, I’m open to the idea of Fernandes being a dangerous fighter early on. I think he has knockout equity and perhaps he has grappling equity against a lower tier of competition.
I am highly suspect of this guy over 15 minutes though, both in terms of ability to produce total offense, effective offense, and also in his ability to defend. He’s picked up a couple decisions on the regionals but ultimately I need to see more of him before I am comfortable in him winning clean rounds.
I think that at least gives Yahya an out, though he’s a heavy underdog. Yahya is probably the superior volume fighter though his volume was terrible in his debut as well. I definitely think Fernandes is more explosive and dangerous.
Fernandes also probably has the wrestling upside in this matchup. I’m unsure how proactively he will look to wrestle, but if Peek can take Yahya down four times, Fernandes can certainly get on top at times. And it very well could lead to a finish.
I would actually lean toward a finish coming from strikes on the feet though and I suppose that’s the outcome I’ll predict. Yahya has been knocked out before and submitted a couple of times, where Fernandes has never been finished in losses.
Still, in Abu Dhabi, in a potentially slow-paced fight with limited volume on both sides, there’s definitely potential for this fight to get weird. I worry Fernandes is too tied into early success but also I do think he’s more dangerous of the two and I expect him to do enough to get past Yahya.
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On DraftKings, Fernandes is priced up to 9.3k and I consider him very boom or bust.
He will likely need a quick knockout to contend for the optimal. If not, perhaps he can do enough on the ground to score well though I still think it would need to result in a quick finish.
Fernandes is -170 to win ITD which is a really strong line and he can be considered for that reason. Many of his wins come super early, like within the first two minutes, so perhaps there’s a tiny bit of quick win bonus equity as well. That’s not something I ever project though and won’t think about that outcome too much here.
It’s just going to be a challenge for me to get to him ahead of Nurmagomedov. Chiesa is a different story but if Fernandes wins by RD 1 KO and scores 100-110 points, I’m still not sure that would be enough to surpass Umar in a win.
And because of the extreme bust risk in any extended fight, I’m likely not going to end up heavy on Fernandes. He’s completely fine as an early finishing target and I think he has some potential to get the job done, but I am not very trusting of his style and will likely use him as a secondary target this week.
Yahya at 6.9k does not interest me much. Outside of the ownership/leverage angle, I don’t see a great case for Yahya.
He will produce limited volume. He is not likely to grapple much. His ITD line is +780.
Perhaps we as a market are overrating Fernandes and at home in Abu Dhabi, on his second try, Yahya will look improved. There’s variance in striking exchanges and Fernandes can be outwrestled too.
I just don’t have any faith in Yahya. His skills didn’t look amazing on the regional scene either.
On this slate, I just can’t make him a priority. You can punt with him on a small percentage of lineups if you wish but I’d much rather pay for more win equity and more fantasy upside.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fernandes by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Shamil Gaziev vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Fight Odds: Gaziev -250, Mayes +208
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Gaziev 9.1k, Mayes 7.1k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a hilarious crap shoot of a heavyweight fight here between Shamil Gaziev and Don’Tale Mayes. This fight is an absolute mess and will be pretty funny to watch.
Gaziev got badly exposed in his recent main event spot against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He won the first round and landed a takedown. Then he gassed and got absolutely obliterated, and the fight was stopped at the end of round four. Rozenstruik outlanded Gaziev 127-22 in significant strikes in that matchup which is just crazy.
It is honestly hard to trust Gaziev in any extended fight going forward after seeing that matchup, so I will always be hesitant backing him.
However, Gaziev is still really dangerous early with strikes and takedowns. He can absolutely finish people in the UFC early. I mean he beat the crap out of a decent fighter in Martin Buday so he is definitely capable.
However, Gaziev seems like a typical early storm, bully heavyweight prototype. He is going to need to generally win early which I do think he will against a lot of guys. Anytime a fight gets extended though, it is going to be sketchy for him.
Gaziev will be taking on Don’Tale Mayes who is fresh off of a decision against Caio Machado. Mayes is a really big guy at 6’6” with an 81” reach. He is also a decent athlete for a HW. So his size and decent athleticism help him. He just isn’t that skilled though.
Mayes generally has struck in his UFC fights. He lands 3.69 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.96 in return. He defends strikes at 47 percent. He isn’t even fighting the best competition and is still absorbing more strikes than he lands which isn’t good.
I do think Mayes is somewhat competent on the feet. He can switch stances. He has a decent jab and can mix in straight punches and hooks. He also likes to mix in occasional kicks, especially a front kick to the body. I do wish he had a bit more power though. He is capable of hurting opponents, but I don’t think he has big time power.
I really disliked his performance against Augusto Sakai. Sakai outlanded him 53-29 in significant strikes and Mayes just looked bad. It made me even less confident in him going forward. He recently lost to Rodrigo Nascimento and also didn’t look great. He was scared of the pressure against Nascimento.
Mayes has only landed takedowns in one UFC fight. He landed six takedowns vs Josh Parisian. He landed some body lock takedowns and was able to camp out in half guard. He also was able to land ground and pound in the crucifix position.
It was honestly a decent performance by Mayes. His top game looked fine for a HW. It also just showed that he has another path to victory in his game. I think he can continue to have success against bad grapplers which this weight division is full of. The issue is that he just may not go to it. He had a potential grappling path to victory against Sakai and only attempted one takedown. He defends takedowns at 60 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I definitely think Gaziev is at an advantage early. Just seeing the way Nascimento walked Mayes down makes me think Mayes will have fits with the early storm and pressure of Gaziev. It will honestly probably result in Gaziev taking Mayes down or hurting him. An early KO for Gaziev is definitely on the table and that is what I am picking to happen.
The issue is that Gaziev better win early because Mayes has much better cardio and will probably be at an advantage if this fight gets extended into the second half of the 15 minutes. We know Mayes can fight for 15 minutes without issue and Gaziev definitely can’t. So if Mayes just survives round one, he honestly may just win the fight.
I still don’t like Mayes as a talent skill wise though, and I do think he is at a major disadvantage early so I am going to pick Gaziev to get this done. Mayes also just doesn’t have finishing equity often, and will probably lose round one so his win condition is likely a come from behind victory on the scorecards. This is sketchy though and looking to bet Mayes live is probably not a bad strategy.
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On DraftKings, I do like Gaziev a bit based on his early finishing equity.
Especially considering the majority of his career success has come on the mat, Gaziev at least has a skill set to put up a big score. He’s priced at 9.1k and has an ITD line of -145 which is very strong.
It should be noted though that Gaziev isn’t great. Cardio isn’t great. Distance striking isn’t great. Striking is mostly a means of pressuring into grappling exchanges anyway. And his wrestling isn’t great.
Still, it’s the HW division and there aren’t a lot of talented fighters here, including Mayes. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Gaziev walk him down and find a finish, and odds suggest that’s a pretty realistic outcome.
I’m not willing to fade that outcome so I do plan on having exposure here. It’s not a bad price and saves some salary against the very top end targets like Chiesa at 9.5k.
Mayes is somewhat tough though. He’s been finished before by strikes and by subs, but it hasn’t come quickly. And he hasn’t been finished in any of his past seven matchups, so I’m not at all convinced Gaziev is going to make this look easy.
Still, we’re playing the upside game and Gaziev does have upside. You absolutely do not need to prioritize him and could still play Umar and the other 9k options ahead of Gaziev, but Gaziev does rate out well. He’s a boom or bust target but one who could realistically have grappling success and smash his way to an early finish.
That’s worth consideration in tournaments for me and I wouldn’t mind mild to moderate exposure.
Mayes at 7.1k is viable as well, largely due to the cardio dynamic.
It’s quite possible that Gaziev will slow down by round two and Mayes can take over and win the fight. There’s some viability based on this alone, and he’s priced cheaply enough at a low public ownership to consider.
However, he’s still +525 to win ITD. He doesn’t project to wrestle a lot and may not want to wrestle at all. Point striking his way to a decision probably won’t score super well, especially if he’s also not had success early on.
I think you’re really hoping for a finish here, which is tricky considering Mayes just isn’t very good at anything. He’s still won ITD in four of his last six wins, so I suppose it’s possible.
I’m certainly not high on Mayes, but he has win equity and perhaps sneaky finishing equity in a variance-filled division. I don’t mind using him as a low-end target though I won’t aim to be much higher than the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gaziev by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Guram Kutateladze vs. Jordan Vucenic
Fight Odds: Kutateladze -241, Vucenic +201
Odds to Finish: +130
DraftKings Salaries: Kutateladze 8.8k, Vucenic 7.4k
Weight Class: 155
I’m pretty interested to see the newcomer Jordan Vucenic make his UFC debut this weekend but he’ll have a tough test in front of him in Guram Kutateladze.
Vucenic is 13-2 professionally at age 28 and he’s a former Cage Warriors champion. He’s earned two wins by KO and six by submission, though I consider him a base kickboxer.
It’s tough to say he’s fought elite competition, but he’s certainly fought some strong opponents, even beating current UFC prospect Morgan Charriere over five rounds in 2021.
It’s also interesting that of Vucenic’s six sub wins, one came in his pro debut in 2017 but the other five have been his five most recent wins. He’s just suddenly decided that he’s a better grappler than his competition and has been clearly initiating takedowns, getting on top, and locking up subs.
I’m not certain what belt Vucenic is and I doubt he’s an elite grappler for the UFC level, but I love the mix up and I think it gives him multiple paths to victory.
I’d say it’s the same with his striking, I don’t necessarily consider him an elite talent but he’s pretty technical, fairly fast, and can throw with decent volume. He doesn’t seem to pack one punch KO power but I don’t care as much about that.
Vucenic has the cardio to go five rounds, and is willing to throw down. His only two losses are decisions, and he doesn’t seem super defensively weak anywhere.
I have seen him taken down a handful of times, and that’s probably going to happen at the UFC level too. But he is at least competent as a grappler and scrambler and hasn’t had too much difficulty finding his way back to his feet.
The ceiling of Vucenic likely isn’t elite given my concerns for his finishing potential at this next level, but I like the well-roundedness and cardio of Vucenic and I expect him to at least put on some competitive performances.
Kutateladze wasn’t necessarily an elite prospect coming into the UFC, but he performed super well against Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov who are two high-end talents, which forced us to give him respect.
Then he threw down against Elves Brener, failed to finish him, and got rocked and knocked out late in the fight. That was one year ago.
I’m not going to put too much stock in the loss, as Guram still rates out pretty well in all areas and there’s just a lot of variance in striking exchanges.
I watched him go toe to toe with Ismagulov, and he currently lands 4.62 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.53 per minute. He’s a strong kicker, technical, with some power, and he should be able to keep up with a lot of the division on a minute per minute basis.
I also watched him give up five takedowns to Gamrot, but defend more than 10 others and scramble his way free on countless occasions. While he perhaps isn’t elite on first-level takedown defense, he seems very hard to control and submit.
It makes the matchup complicated and ultimately not a great one to feel confident in the newcomer. I wish they gave him an easier landing spot to be honest.
While I think Vucenic can compete with Kutateladze everywhere, is it fair to favor him? Probably not. I’d lean toward Kutateladze being a bit more effective throughout.
Vucenic does seem tough at least and I haven’t really seen him badly hurt, so with some variance, maybe he can have a moment or two or win some close rounds.
Both fighters can probably take each other down. I lean toward Vucenic being the aggressor, but I’m not certain that will be his game plan A either. And I’m really not sold he can easily get Kutateladze down either.
However even Brener landed two takedowns on Guram so it’s definitely possible. Projecting Vucenic for 1-3 takedowns with minimal control makes sense to me, but I’m just not sure how impactful it will be in terms of helping him win rounds.
Kutateladze has landed one takedown in each of his last two matchups, and it’s possible he could get one here. I’m just again not sure it will be super impactful.
I don’t mind favoring Kutatleadze here for his UFC experience against high-level competition, but I still think Vucenic is talented enough to make rounds competitive, in a fight that likely goes the distance.
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On DraftKings, due to the fight analysis and the odds for the matchup to go the distance, I’m not going to be too invested.
Kutateladze is priced up to 8.8k and he scored 56 points in his lone decision win. He would have scored 76 + the final two minutes of action against Brener had he not gotten knocked out.
In a different matchup, perhaps I’d feel differently but I just don’t see a ton of domination upside with Kutateladze. He’s only +230 to win ITD which isn’t great for this price. Maybe he can find the chin of Vucenic, or the body, and hurt him badly but that’s pretty tough to project.
Outside of that outcome, I just don’t see Guram scoring a ton of points. Minimal grappling equity and minimal finishing equity will largely put me off of him at this price.
I doubt he’ll be popular though so if you want to consider him for the contrarian angle, I understand, but I just don’t love the upside for this fight on paper.
Vucenic is actually my preferred target at 7.4k though it’s hard to argue he’s worth lots of exposure.
I do really like the fact that he’s been aggressively grappling recently. Should he win this fight, I’m guessing some takedowns are mixed in. His volume is pretty decent on the feet too but that ultimately won’t matter a lot.
I guess there’s also some angle in that Guram was just knocked out late. Perhaps there’s a cardio dynamic that favors Vucenic or perhaps a durability one. I won’t consider those major though, and neither does the betting market.
Vucenic is ultimately +375 to win ITD which isn’t strong, and a tighter decision feels like the most likely outcome. He probably won’t be too popular either.
I don’t hate Vucenic as a lower-end secondary target or pivot off some of the chalkier options in this range, but his ceiling is questionable and the matchup isn’t easy. For that reason he’s tough to prioritize and I wouldn’t blame you for being light, especially with a limited portfolio. I’m still somewhat willing to use him at 7.4k.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kutateladze by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Viktoriia Dudakova vs. Sam Hughes
Fight Odds: Dudakova -164, Hughes +141
Odds to Finish: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Dudakova 8.5k, Hughes 7.7k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Having won her first two UFC fights, Viktoriia Dudakova will get a good test against UFC veteran Sam Hughes this weekend as Hughes is a very tough girl who will fight hard for 15 minutes.
Dudakova is 8-0 professionally and booked her ticket to the UFC by winning a decision on the Contender Series. She dominated that fight with wrestling, landing four takedowns and accumulating more than 10 minutes of control time.
Dudakova then won by injury in her UFC debut against Istela Nunes. Nunes broke her arm when being taken down early.
Dudakova then fought Jinh Yu Frey in her most recent matchup and won a 29-28 decision. She actually won by getting the better of the striking exchanges in round 1 and 3, and only attempted three takedowns, failing on them all. Dudakova lost round two by getting taken down and held down for the entire round.
I kind of label Dudakova a freestyle fighter who generally looks to grapple if she has the advantage. Her takedowns are okay and her top control is fine. However, I don’t think she will easily outwrestle decent UFC level fighters.
Dudakova’s striking looked decent vs Frey. She is somewhat technical and she looked okay. I still don’t think she is anything special on the feet though.
Dudakova still can accumulate offense by strikes and takedowns so that is good, but I don’t really consider her great at either. I also was very concerned watching her have no idea how to get to her feet against Frey. It makes me think she can be outgrappled in this division.
Dudakova will be taking on Sam Hughes. Hughes does at least have a few decent aspects of her game. She is tough, pretty physical, and has good cardio. She will try very hard for 15 minutes and can wear down opponents with her grind and pressure. She has had a good third round several times, and I think her cardio / physicality will always be a weapon against the low tier fighters of this division. She even won round three against Loma Lookboonme and Piera Rodriguez who are quality opponents.
Technically, Hughes isn’t great though. She lands 0.96 takedowns per 15 minutes but has a pretty good body lock takedown that is assisted by her physicality. She is decent at holding top position as well and she can grind opponents.
As a striker, I don’t love Hughes’ game. She lands 4.03 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.51 in return. She defends strikes at 56 percent. She just isn’t a great striker and decent strikers should have their way with Hughes. Hughes has okay inside boxing and can have striking success with pressure though. Her striking success is largely dependent on her opponents being tired. Against fresh opponents, Hughes doesn’t have a ton of success.
Hughes defends takedowns at 57 percent. She can definitely be taken down. However, she generally gets up fairly quickly. For example, she was taken down five times by Piera Rodriguez but was only controlled for 1:56.
As far as this matchup goes, I actually think this is going to be very competitive and I am actually going to pick Hughes in this matchup.
I really think Hughes sneakily has more top time upside in this matchup. I think either girl could land takedowns here, but I do not think Dudakova will easily take or hold Hughes down. I actually think Hughes will pop right back up. On the other hand, I think Hughes can hold Dudakova down. Dudakova’s get-ups looked nonexistent against Frey, and I really think Hughes has clear round-winning upside because of it.
On the feet, this is probably very competitive. Dudakova may be a little more skilled and technical, but Hughes is probably right in her league given her tenacity and pressure. I just think the striking will be back and forth and anyone can win those rounds.
I really do think Hughes is more likely to win clean rounds with grappling though so I am going to pick her to win. This is still a very competitive fight though, and I am expecting a tight one.
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On DraftKings, my interest here is extremely limited as the fight is -400 to go the distance, and neither side projects to dominate anywhere.
Dudakova is priced up to 8.5k and feels like a questionable target. She’s coming off a 77-point decision with a fluke 121-point injury win prior to that. However, in her DWCS victory that wasn’t scored, she did land four takedowns with 10+ minutes of control, which would have scored in the mid 90s.
Sam Hughes isn’t great. So although Dudakova hasn’t really pushed a grappling pace in UFC matchups, I’m not completely ruling it out here. Hughes has been taken down five and four times in UFC fights.
So despite Dudakova not rating out very well, and having very minimal finishing equity at +475 ITD, she may have more wrestling upside than expected. It’s also hard to guarantee a lot of wrestling or control time.
Realistically, you’re not going to end up with a ton of Dudakova and I doubt the public will either. Fading her is probably fine with a more limited portfolio and there’s a decent chance she loses outright.
I do think there’s some possibility of 3-4 takedowns and a win though, so I wouldn’t be stunned if she exceeded value. It’s still hard to justify or project an elite ceiling so ultimately I’ll be light.
Hughes at 7.7k doesn’t rate out much better.
She’s +550 to win ITD which is very poor, and I can’t project a ton of offensive production. Tim mentioned sneaky wrestling upside which may be true, but it’s hard to project. Hughes has only landed takedowns in three of her eight fights.
At 7.7k, I’m not particularly excited. Like Dudakova, perhaps she can land a few takedowns here, earn control, and exceed value for the price. Using her as a low-end secondary target is fine.
I highly doubt Hughes wins the fight convincingly though and there’s a decent chance she fails to reach 90 points in a win. She’s just a low end mix-in who could win, but not a major priority for me.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hughes by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jai Herbert vs. Rolando Bedoya
Fight Odds: Herbert -140, Bedoya +121
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Herbert 8.6k, Bedoya 7.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have what will likely turn into a fun action fight between Jai Herbert and Rolando Bedoya.
Herbert is an okay action fighter who has fought some good competition in the UFC. Herbert is mostly a striker. He is dangerous with his striking and is an eight limb threat. He will throw punches, kicks, elbows, and knees. He also has moderate power and has hurt many guys on the regionals. I do think he is pretty dangerous on the feet in general and capable of winning fights on the feet at this level.
Herbert has been knocked out a few times though so his durability scares me. He also only lands 2.69 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.15. So his workrate scares me, but I do think he is pretty technical as a striker and he fought competitively against decent fighters like Ludovit Klein. He even hurt current champion Illia Topuria badly so he is capable on the feet.
Herbert doesn’t really wrestle offensively much. I don’t think he will really score much offense in the UFC with any offensive grappling.
Herbert has been exposed on the mat before and only defends takedowns at 57 percent. However, he is capable as a grappler and only decent grapplers will probably dominate him on the mat.
Herbert will be taking on Rolando Bedoya. Bedoya is a Peruvian fighter who is 14-3 professionally with most of his fights coming in low tier regional promotions. He is 0-2 in the UFC.
I actually think this guy is fun to watch though. He reminds me a bit of Billy Quarantillo. He isn’t super skilled and has plenty of flaws, but he comes with a high pace and looks to break guys.
Bedoya is non-stop action on the feet and looks to break his opponents. On the feet, he comes with a lot of strikes and focuses on hooks, jabs, and some decent low kicks. He just lands a lot of volume which I like.
Bedoya is not perfect on the feet though. I don’t think he hits very hard from a strike per strike basis and he fights aggressively so he can be hurt. He lost recently to Song Kenan (which is embarrassing) because he was hurt a couple of times. He did have the higher workrate in that matchup though and outlanded Song 112-75 in significant strikes.
I still do like Bedoya’s aggressiveness though and he does seem pretty tough. He has never been knocked out before. I do think if he just stays conscious, he can pick off some wins at this level.
Bedoya will look to land takedowns too. Again, I don’t consider him a strong grappler. Everything is predicated on his pace. He can land takedowns by tiring people out and then overwhelm them from top position.
In his fight vs Khaos Williams, Bedoya looked pretty good. I actually thought he won the fight. The first two rounds were VERY competitive and then Bedoya took round three clean. Bedoya showed that pace and volume which he showed on the regionals and landed 149 significant strikes on Williams. He absorbed 130 significant strikes. However, he won the head strike battle 103-68 and did a good job rolling with the punches of Williams.
As far as this matchup goes, my guess is this plays out on the feet. I think Herbert is the more technical fighter and probably hits harder from a strike per strike basis. So picking Herbert for those reasons is understandable.
However, Herbert’s work rate worries me and Bedoya has landed 112 and 149 significant strikes in his two UFC fights. Yes, neither performance resulted in a win, but that is consistent offense and can result in a win against someone like Herbert who has never broken 50 significant strikes in the UFC.
So picking Bedoya via work rate also seems reasonable. I am not confident in either guy. I don’t like either much as a talent and both have flaws in their own right. However, I am going to pick Bedoya because he generally is more aggressive than Herbert. He also may just be more durable than Herbert as I don’t trust Herbert’s chin.
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On DraftKings, I do prefer the underdog Bedoya and I think that’s where the public will lean as well.
The line has moved toward Bedoya this week so he’s now a value at 7.6k, sitting as a short +121 underdog. While he hasn’t scored well in the UFC yet, landing 149 and 112 sig. strikes in three rounds is pretty promising.
In a matchup like this, while I don’t feel exceptionally confident in Bedoya, it’s super easy to picture him winning based on work rate. Herbert is honestly not bad but he’s just not been able to produce much offense.
Herbert would have to significantly up his pace here to compete with Bedoya, or hurt him. But of the two, my guess is Bedoya probably has better durability. Bedoya is +285 to win ITD which isn’t amazing but it shows some KO equity.
There’s a worry about Bedoya getting steamed a bit due to the value but I think he’s a strong secondary target. The pacing, combined with Herbert’s poor chin, give me some hope that Bedoya could win and could reach a ceiling.
While I’m not super confident in the outcome, I’m pretty willing to target Bedoya at 7.6k as an easy salary saver.
Herbert at 8.6k can win this fight as well but he feels overpriced. He’s +275 to win ITD which shows some KO equity too but on the same plane as Bedoya. With that said, Herbert has fought good competition and he did hurt Topuria badly, the guy is a threat at times.
I don’t think it’s a crazy idea to get some Herbert exposure, hoping it’s up-paced, and that he wins by KO. It would just be a contrarian/leverage thought though and not a target I’d like much outside of the ownership angle.
The mid-range is really questionable this week though, and it’s hard to feel comfortable with most options. I won’t end up with much Herbert but I don’t completely hate him from the contrarian standpoint
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bedoya by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Sedriques Dumas vs. Denis Tiuliulin
Fight Odds: Dumas -220, Tiuliulin +185
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Dumas 8.9k, Tiuliulin 7.3k
Weight Class: 185
We have a pretty low-level contest to start the night between Sedriques Dumas and Denis Tiuliulin, but considering Tiululin’s history, the fight has a decent chance to be fun.
Tiuliulin is 11-9 professionally with nine wins coming by knockout, and he’s only been to decision a few times, though never in the UFC. Within this promotion, he’s only been able to secure one win in five attempts, which came via TKO against Jamie Pickett in 2022.
Otherwise, Tiuliulin has been submitted twice and knocked out twice, most recently Christian Leroy Duncan last November.
Tiuliulin is mostly just a brawler and he has never rated out as a legitimate prospect, so his extremely poor run hasn’t really been a surprise. He’s not super technical though he can be aggressive, and he’ll likely continue to need early damage to have success.
Despite recent KO losses, Tiuliulin is much worse on paper as a grappler than a striker, and that’s where he’s failed against Khizriev, JunYong Park and Gregory Rodrigues. To be fair, those are all strong ground fighters, but Tiuliulin’s defensive wrestling and grappling is still clearly a weakness.
Even in the fight Tiuliulin won, Pickett got the better of him in round one, landing 33 strikes at distance to Tiuliulin’s 22. Tiuliulin came back to drop Pickett twice in round two and secure the KO.
The guy definitely has some knockout equity simply due to his style. But he’ll continue to rate out as a very poor minute winner, with large gaps in his game, including the major one on the mat.
Tiuliulin will be taking on Sedriques Dumas this weekend who is 9-2 professionally earning four wins by TKO and two by submission.
Dumas isn’t a great prospect either, and he’s gone 2-2 in the UFC after earning his contract on DWCS in 2022.
Dumas comes from a street fighting background which isn’t super ideal. He’s also not the brightest guy outside of the cage and was arrested on battery charges earlier this year.
In the UFC, his results have been mediocre. He lost easily to Josh Fremd in his UFC debut, where Fremd took him down a couple of times and choked him out. Fremd isn’t very good so that’s a pretty concerning loss.
Then Dumas beat Cody Brundage by laying on top of him for 11 minutes. Dumas didn’t even attempt any takedowns in that fight, but Brundage did and was able to get him down. Dumas reversed position and Brundage didn’t have the energy or care to work back to his feet.
Dumas then squeaked out a decision against Abu Azaitar in Abu Dhabi, in another matchup that was pretty ugly and competitive. Most recently, he was poked in the eye by Nursulton Ruziboev and then dropped immediately after while he was complaining to the referee.
I certainly don’t feel great about where Dumas stands at the moment.
I think he’s technically fine as a striker. He can work the head, body and legs and he’s pretty composed. He has some finishing ability in the right matchup.
He’s been pretty low-volume though, only landing 1.76 sig. strikes per minute. There needs to be context noted as only 46% of his fights have played out at distance. Still, he’s only landing 2.85 distance strikes per minute which is super low and there’s no reason for me to believe he’ll suddenly try to push a pace moving forward.
Defensively, Dumas is OK, absorbing only 2.14 sig. strikes per minute but he’s been hurt a few times. The recent KO was weird in that Dumas kinda just quit, which I don’t fully blame him for as he was distracted with his eye. However, I don’t necessarily believe he’s a guy who will fight hard through adversity.
As a grappler, Dumas is a purple belt which is good on paper, but I don’t consider him a major threat. He’s a capable wrestler from the body lock but he’s averaging 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes.
In that fight against Azaitar, Dumas landed a takedown early in round one and dominated the round with control. Then he decided to ignore the wrestling for the other two rounds and nearly lost the fight. So Fight IQ is a concern.
He’s also been taken down easily with a defensive rate at 40%, and getting subbed by Fremd was a bad look. I don’t think he’s a great defensive grappler and that concerns me in relation to relying on his offensive abilities as well.
Overall, I don’t think too highly of Dumas. He has some skills and can compete both on the feet and on the mat, but only against a low caliber of competition.
Still, Dumas is favored here because he has a style that’s a bit better suited to win at the UFC level. It’s difficult to give Tiuliulin too much win equity outside of a situation where he brawls, hurts Dumas and gets an early finish.
I actually do think that outcome is possible though. It’s just a combination of Dumas’ weaknesses that concern me. Fight IQ is an issue and who knows if he’ll even try to wrestle. Low volume on the feet is a concern. Coming off a TKO loss is a concern.
Like, yes, I do think if Dumas wrestles aggressively he probably has success. But there’s a reasonable chance Tiuliulin could stuff a couple shots early and then Dumas could abandon that. And if the fight plays out purely on the feet, I don’t consider Dumas a clear favorite.
The fact that Dumas has more grappling upside is still a reason to consider him the favorite though. He might even have legitimate finishing equity on the mat. I don’t trust Dumas’ skills but Tiuliun will give up his back and Dumas has been at least comfortable to control opponents.
That, combined with some more precise striking probably gives Dumas more win equity in the matchup overall. I’ll pick him to win by neutralizing Tiuliulin a little bit, and perhaps taking over in the middle rounds. I don’t feel confident about it at all though.
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On DraftKings, I’ll probably want to cover my bases here with some exposure to the matchup as it’s lined -200 to end inside the distance.
Tiuliulin hasn’t fought into round three yet in five UFC tries, win or lose. It’s fairly reasonable to believe that a win for him largely comes by TKO, and a loss largely comes ITD as well.
Dumas is priced up to 8.9k though which is pretty expensive, and I’m pretty hesitant to pull the trigger aggressively. Mostly, it’s because Dumas won’t push the pace. He may not grapple aggressively and we can’t project him for more than 1-2 takedowns.
That could still be enough to get to an optimal score in the right situation. If he wins in round one or round two, Dumas can put up an optimal score. The fact that Dumas hasn’t reached 80 points in either UFC decision win suggests a very weak floor, but those scores may also not be a fair representation of his upside in this particular matchup.
With a +115 ITD line, and weak box scores that should keep his public ownership down, facing off against a super poor opponent, I don’t mind Dumas and I don’t even mind coming in a bit overweight to the field.
I’d still want to put a firm cap on exposure though based on Dumas’ pacing and Fight IQ. I am pretty scared about the fight extending a bit, and Dumas winning while underperforming from a stats perspective.
Overall I’d say there’s reason to be optimistic this weekend and based on the matchup he’s an intriguing tournament target, but there is more than one way in which he could fail.
Tiuliulin at 7.3k is a fine sprinkle in tournaments due to early finishing upside. He’s just boom or bust too and it’s not the best matchup either.
Tiuliulin doesn’t have real grappling equity and Dumas will probably play a more defensive game on the feet. An extended fight will likely mean Tiuliulin’s offensive production is limited.
He’s +260 to win ITD though which is pretty decent for this price, and it should put him in play. Again, the matchup is somewhat likely to end ITD and Dumas did just get hurt and finished quickly.
I can’t say I love Tiuliulin but I would use him as a secondary, near the field target in large-field tournaments with a medium-sized portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dumas by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)