UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez (2/21/26)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez

Fight Odds: Hernandez -255, Strickland +215

Odds to end ITD: +123

DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 9.1k, Strickland 7.1k

Weight Class: 185

The quest for gold continues for Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez, who has now rattled off eight consecutive wins in the UFC middleweight division and will look to make that nine in a row against Sean Strickland this weekend.

Hernandez is a pace grappling machine, and is one of the best in the sport today in that particular style.

I wouldn’t say Hernandez is an elite athlete, nor an elite wrestler, nor is he that great at any aspect of the game in particular. But he can grapple his ass off for as long as is necessary to drown his opponents and get his hand raised.

Through 12 tracked UFC fights, Hernandez is averaging 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at 9, 10, 8, and 8 takedowns landed with a strong 9-takedown performance in four rounds in his most recent win over Roman Dolidze

Once on top, Hernandez can take the back and hunt for chokes. He can land ground-and-pound. He really never stops working and it only adds to his ability to drown opponents once those takedowns start landing.

Still, Hernandez is semi one-dimensional in that he needs to grind to win. He’s not a particularly strong range striker, and his distance exchanges are usually just a mess and a war, and simply a means to get on the inside and clinch/grapple where he can excel. When he’s at distance, he’s willing to push forward and throw a barrage of strikes, but only 31 percent of his fights take place at distance, which is extremely low.

I still view Hernandez as a shaky fighter in the sense that he is not physically dominant, and can lose the fight in multiple areas. He can be outstruck, he can be hurt, he can be taken down and he can be submitted.

However, his style is exhausting to deal with, so you better get him out of there quickly. If not, Hernandez’ pressure and grind is likely to succeed, and once he starts landing takedowns and working his top game, it’s a tough hill to climb for his opponents.

This is a super interesting matchup against Sean Strickland, who is coming off a championship loss to Dricus Du Plessis one year ago.

For all that he lacks, Strickland is also known as a pace fighter, and someone who is capable of outlasting opponents. He’s not necessarily the best and brightest our sport has to offer, nor is he an elite athlete, but Strickland can throw down for five rounds if necessary.

Primarily, Strickland is a boxer and he lands 5.95 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.57 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. Those are pretty good metrics, and we’ve seen him top out at 180+ sig. strikes landed on multiple occasions.

He doesn’t carry elite power, but considering his pacing and attrition, Strickland can damage you and finish the fight if you’re not able to take the fight to him.

Strickland can wrestle too, and he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but he typically doesn’t like to grapple. He only lands 0.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, and has mostly used his grappling defensively. He currently defends takedowns at 76 percent which is decent.

Strickland has been fighting in the UFC since 2014, so I don’t think he’s necessarily in the prime of his career any more. His recent loss to Du Plessis wasn’t a particularly strong performance, and I don’t have a ton of faith in him regaining championship form.

However, Strickland is still not an easy out. He’s difficult to dominate in any area of the game and he can box in your face for 25 minutes if you let him.

In terms of his matchup, it’s difficult to pick Strickland outright but I definitely think he has a shot.

Strickland is the better distance fighter, for sure. He’s the better boxer, and he’s capable of throwing strikes at a higher pace. Over 25 minutes, in a pure striking fight, I would favor Strickland pretty cleanly.

I still would expect Hernandez to be aggressive, pushing forward and landing some occasional big shots. He could win rounds. He could do some damage. But he’s simply not as experienced or consistent at range as Strickland, and Strickland is likely the more durable fighter as well.

For me to be confident in Hernandez winning this fight, I still believe he needs to land lots of takedowns. And my fear is that a few takedowns won’t be enough to change the dynamic of the matchup fully. Strickland doesn’t easily get held down, and doesn’t easily give up his back.

I didn’t love Strickland’s recent wrestling defense. Du Plessis took him down six times on 11 takedown attempts, but only earned two minutes of control. I watch those exchanges and think Hernandez can land takedowns. But can he easily hold Strickland down? I’m not so sure.

Hernandez is nearly attempting 1 takedown per minute, so if he continues his torrid pace and attempts another 29 takedowns like we saw against Pereira, he’s likely to land 8, 10, 12 or more takedowns, and that could certainly be the separator. The more often he’s able to take Strickland down, the more he will wear him down, and more positions will start to open up.

I still don’t think Strickland will fully exhaust himself, and get tapped. But he might start getting frustrated and he might not fight back as quickly. I want that grinding domination style from Hernandez because if he allows Strickland up easily and this becomes a kickboxing match, I could see him simply losing the fight.

Overall, I do think picking Hernandez to win is fair. Of any aspect of the matchup, I trust that Hernandez will pressure relentlessly and try to wrestle. I do think he’ll succeed. The early rounds may be competitive if he fails to control Strickland on the mat, but the more often he’s clinching and trying to grind on Strickland, the less often he’s getting hit.

Five round fights are still good style matchups for Strickland and he’s already been the champ of this division once. He can have success at boxing range, and he has mild knockout equity too. I won’t count him out, but I lean toward Hernandez getting his hand raised again, most likely by decision.

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On DraftKings, Hernandez will rate out as the top overall play on the slate and he’s likely to be ultra-chalk.

In his last main event, Hernandez came in at a shocking 63 percent owned, and he came through, scoring a whopping 141 DraftKings points. Now priced at 9.1k, in a top tier that lacks guarantees, I would not be surprised if Hernandez exceeded 60 percent public ownership once again.

Honestly, it does make sense. He has one of the best styles possible in the sport today, and that style absolutely crushes on DraftKings. His previous main event win scored 192 DK points.

Hernandez is only +165 to win ITD, but it doesn’t matter. He doesn’t need to win ITD to reach a ceiling, and his style is arguably better to reach a ceiling in an extended matchup. Nothing is a guarantee, but Hernandez’ style is built around grapple domination and if he wins here, he’s extremely likely to clear 110 points and more than likely cruise to the optimal.

As a fighter with approximately 70 percent win equity, Hernandez could be viewed as a lock. With a small number of lineups you could lock him in. You could lock him in with a large number of lineups. In theory, if he wins, he’s optimal.

It is worth noting that 70 percent does not equal 100 percent though. There are paths for Hernandez to fail to control Strickland, get hurt, and lose. He’s been TKOd to the body before. So playing into that reality makes sense, the larger your portfolio is.

Realistically, he’ll rate out as the top overall and top projected fighter across the industry this week, and can be treated as such.

Strickland is priced at 7.1k and makes for a solid leverage target if nothing else. I wouldn’t expect Strickland to exceed 30 percent ownership, but if he wins, he has decent upside.

Hernandez has lost twice in the UFC and he was finished both times. Strickland also can land an absurd number of strikes in wins. Strickland won’t necessarily rate out well with a +682 ITD line but if he wins, he’s going to contend for the optimal at a low public percentage and a cheap price tag.

Stylistically he’s not completely out of this fight either.

I have to only view Strickland as a low-end secondary target this week though. He’s a sizable underdog, and he likely won’t be able to land his typical number of strikes with Hernandez pressuring him and wrestling him relentlessly. His floor is not as strong as in an average fight because of it.

I don’t have a lot of faith he can get the job done, but at low 20s public ownership, with extreme leverage against Hernandez, he’s still worth mild consideration and I’d certainly mix him into larger tournament portfolios.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hernandez by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic

Fight Odds: Neal -210, Medic +180

Odds to end ITD: -650

DraftKings Salaries: Neal 8.7k, Medic 7.5k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a super interesting fight here between UFC veterans Geoff Neal and Uros Medic.

Neal is mostly a striker. He lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.48 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. I will defend Neal’s ratios in the sense that his competition has been great. This guy doesn’t get enough credit for his competition levels. Three of his last four fights have come against Shavkat, Garry, and Prates. So there is certainly a quality of competition factor that you need to bake in when analyzing him. Outside of those three guys, he is actually sneakily 9-2 in the UFC. So his losses have come against very good fighters.

I consider Neal a solid striker. He has adequate boxing and good straight punches. He also can mix in occasional kicks. I do get frustrated with him in some exchanges though. Sometimes, he will feint his way into punching range and be within range to land and will just not throw. He did this vs Wonderboy so much and against several other fighters.

I do respect Neal’s power. He has 9 knockdowns in 16 UFC fights and has won by knockout a few times. Neal does have excellent TDD as he defends takedowns at 87 percent. He isn’t an offensive takedown threat though.

I think the main thing to point out about Neal is that he tends to do well in striking exchanges when people actually come after him. Guys like Luque, Perry and Niko Price came after him so Neal was able to tee off on them. Other guys like Wonderboy used lateral movement and controlled range and Neal struggled. 

I also consider Neal pretty durable. He has only been knocked out once in his last matchup against Carlos Prates, who is one of the most powerful guys in this weight class.

Neal will be taking on Uros Medic. I originally didn’t think Medic was very good. He is a lengthy 6’1” striker with some power, and he generally just finished everyone in the first round early in his career. He then was dominated on the mat and then knocked out by Jalin Turner. I kind of just assumed Medic was an early KO or bust type of fighter after seeing that.

However, I actually think Medic showed me that he isn’t a complete KO1 or bust fighter against Omar Morales and Matthew Semelsberger. He beat the crap out of Morales for 8 minutes and he at least showed he can carry power for more than 4 minutes. Then in his win vs Semelsberger, he was hurt early. He then regrouped and got the better of the exchanges for the next ten minutes. 

He then knocked Semelsberger out in round 3. It was good to see him be able to fight hard for nearly 15 minutes. He also obviously showed he still has that KO1 power with recent wins against Tim Means,  Gilbert Urbina, and Muslim Salikhov.

Medic is landing 5.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.46 in return which is good thus far.

I still have some concerns with Medic. He can be hurt. He was also knocked dead by Punahele Soriano. I don’t think his durability is great.

Medic is also not a great defensive wrestler. He got dominated on the mat in his matchup against Myktybek Orolbai and surely good wrestlers can dominate him on the ground.

However, Medic is at least a dangerous and long striker who has power. He also showed he can fight later in a fight and maintain his danger for three rounds. He obviously has some flaws but I respect some of his win conditions as realistic at this level.

As far as this matchup goes, I think there is a ton of variance baked in this matchup and these guys both surely have the power to put each other out.

I really do think Medic is super dangerous early. I would not be shocked if he hurt Neal and knocked him dead. I actually think it is super realistic. So I am not counting out Medic at all here and I wouldn’t play Neal past -150 just because of the very realistic KO upside for Medic.

I do think Neal is clearly a more skilled striker though and he has fought WAY better competition. Neal is losing to the best guys in the world while Medic is generally knocking out subpar competition. I am also skeptical of Medic’s durability and over the duration I think Neal will get the better of the exchanges here.

So Neal is the pick but don’t blink here as a KO is in play at any point.

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On DraftKings, this seems like a pretty decent fight to target as it is -650 to end inside the distance.

Medic typically profiles as a kill or be killed type. In 10 UFC affiliated fights, only three have seen round two. None have gone the distance. He’s won by KO 7 times and been finished three times.

Neal profiles as the better overall fighter and has KO equity of his own, but he’s also coming off a devastating first round KO loss to Prates. I suspect that’s going to lead to some additional Medic ownership this week.

Medic is priced at 7.5k and I’m expecting him to be semi-chalk in the mid 7ks. How can you get off of him? When he wins, he’s almost always going to score 100 points. You can argue his top-end ceiling isn’t “elite” with his style in the sense that 120 points will rarely be in play, but at 7.5k you don’t need a top-end ceiling.

With Neal coming off the early KO loss, Medic is +234 to win ITD which is very strong, and honestly picking him to win outright isn’t that crazy. He’s simply an obvious underdog this week, who I am expecting to be in the range of 30 percent owned.

I personally can’t get off the chalk here. You could choose to prioritize Neal for leverage or pivot away, but the win condition is there for Medic and he can score very well. It seems like the best strategy is to come in near the field and find your edge elsewhere.

Neal is priced at 8.7k and could be leverage against Medic although he may end up owned in a very similar range. While Medic can be finished, Neal coming off the KO loss will scare people away.

Plus, he needs the KO to have any shot at the optimal. Wrestling could honestly be a way to beat Medic too, but Neal only lands 0.54 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Neal is -160 to win ITD in this matchup which is really strong, and ultimately it’s an indicator that he’s worth some investment in large field tournaments.

You have to put Neal into the boom or bust bucket still, which would be a reason to cap exposure. He might lose. He might be better in an extended point fighting type of win here where he could bust on DK. There are ways for this to go wrong.

However, Medic has been hurt very badly in two of his last three fights, and a RD 1/2 KO win for Neal is definitely on the table. Neal is a solid secondary, upside target because of it and although it’s fair to prefer some safer options nearby, you could argue coming in above the field is correct here given the ITD line.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Neal by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa

Fight Odds: Costa -212, Ige +182

Odds to end ITD: +195

DraftKings Salaries: Costa 8.9k, Ige 7.3k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a fun action fight here between Melquizael Costa and Dan Ige.

Costa is now 24-7 professionally and fights out of Brazil. Standing out of the southpaw stance, Costa likes to come forward and strike. He is aggressive and he likes to use his rear kick to the body.  He is basically always throwing his rear kick and will also use it to the head. Charriere found that out in their last matchup the hard way as Costa knocked him out with a head kick to the land of wind and ghosts. That was one of the most brutal knockouts of the year and a breakthrough moment for Costa who has a lot of momentum and fans behind him.

Costa has a good kicking game. He can also fight going backwards and has decent hands as well. I was actually impressed by his defense against Lingo as well. He controlled range well in that fight.

I generally think Costa is a pretty decent striker and will compete just fine in striking fights. He lands 4.42 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.06 in return. I consider him moderately dangerous with pretty good cardio. He controls range well and when he can keep opponents in kicking range he thrives. The way Costa wilted against Garcia was at least a bit concerning. However, Garcia is showing to be very tough to deal with and Costa has won five since, looking decent too.

On the mat, Costa has some BJJ and wrestling in his game offensively, but he isn’t a great defensive grappler. Thiago Moises took him down 4 times and eventually submitted him. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke also took down and controlled Costa. Costa scrambles up okay at times, but he needs to work on his defensive grappling. Costa isn’t an awful defensive grappler, but it is definitely not a strength of his and he will get exposed on the mat again by an above average grappler. 

I do like Costa’s back taking and body triangling / RNC game. He isn’t a good wrestler or control grappler, but he is tricky with his back takes and sneakily lands 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes. Perhaps he has a dangerous guard too as I didn’t expect him to submit Fili. I feel like Fili showed poor guillotine defense in that fight though.

Overall, Costa is just a fun action fighter who can generally compete in all areas. I think he will fail against power punchers in boxing range or good grapplers. However, he is a fairly well-rounded and talented fighter and seems to have improved in his UFC run.

Costa will be taking on tough as nails UFC veteran Dan Ige. Ige is seriously one of the most durable fighters in the sport and has never been finished in 29 professional fight,s fighting great competition.

It was cool seeing him fight admirably on short notice against Diego Lopes a few fights ago and he would have probably won that fight had it been five rounds. He came up short in his fight against Lerone Murphy. However, he damn near knocked Murphy out in the process. His most recent win was a knockout against Sean Woodson but he most recently lost to Pitbull in a disappointing performance. He waited a little too long to get volume going against Pitbull.

Coming from a grappling background, Ige actually preferred to grapple early in his UFC career. He landed 4, 1, 1, and 3 takedowns in his first four UFC fights.

However, he seems to be more interested in striking these days. He only lands 0.89 takedowns per 15 minutes now and has only landed 3 takedowns in his last 39 UFC rounds. I do think he can land takedowns here and there especially vs bad grapplers. However, I don’t have a ton of faith in his takedowns against above-average competition.

Ige really likes to strike now. He lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.56 in return. Those are decent metrics given the competition Ige has fought. He has constantly fought killers. Ige is just a blue collar tough dude who can generally compete in all areas.

Ige has some decent brawling oriented boxing and has some solid power in the pocket. He has a few knockouts in the UFC, and I do think he is pretty dangerous. His pocket power is seriously a threat and we have seen it many times. He can be out slicked on the feet though especially against guys who can control range.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think Ige can hurt Costa in the pocket here. Garcia did it and I still am skeptical of Costa in boxing range. Ige has serious power in the pocket and if Ige can manufacture some inside boxing exchanges, I really do think Ige can win here.

The issue is I think Costa is better at kicking range and should be able to score points. I honestly may even pick Costa to be the better wrestler at this point although I think either guy could have spot takedown success here and there.

Overall, I do think if Costa just survives he will probably win the rounds on the feet with his kicks so I will pick him to win. I still respect Ige though and he is tough as nails and will try hard for three rounds to take Costa’s head off and compete in general. So I could see some hairy moments for Costa in general.

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On DraftKings, Costa is priced up to 8.9k and arguably rates out as a good fade.

I think this is a decent stylistic matchup for Costa to win, and he’s my pick, but I don’t see an obvious fantasy ceiling.

Even if Costa lands a couple of takedowns, his chances of submitting Ige aren’t high. And good luck knocking Ige out. 

In a decision, Costa isn’t likely to clear 100 points though to be fair he’s scored 86, 91 and 103 in his decisions thus far. Some of that came with wrestling, and a couple of takedowns are possible here, but 80-90 points is much more realistic than 100+.

Additionally, Costa is +477 to win ITD against an opponent who’s never lost ITD. I just don’t like betting on these spots but clearly the public feels similarly as noted by that weak ITD line. So I’m not really expecting Costa to be owned much this week, despite his decent box scores.

I don’t think you HAVE to completely fade Costa with a larger portfolio but he’s one of my least favorite options priced above the mid-range this week, and I’d rather invest elsewhere personally.

Ige is priced at 7.3k and likely needs a knockout.

I’m not a huge Ige fan because he’s going to lose minutes, and he won’t wrestle much. Occasionally he’ll win by knockout.

Hurting Costa wouldn’t be completely shocking, and Ige isn’t a massive underdog at +180 to win. Costa has been knocked out before. I just see Costa clearly winning minutes and being tough to chase down, so Ige won’t really be scoring any points at all until he does/does not win by KO.

Ige is +362 to win ITD which is decent for the price, and it’s a better line than Costa’s straight up, which gives him merit. For the price tag, Ige isn’t a terrible option.

I still consider this a low-end, low floor type of play. If Ige wins by TKO in round 2/3, he still might not crush, as we saw recently with a RD 3, 65 point victory. So it’s not a super exciting target for me.

I don’t mind a sprinkle of Ige for the price. I’m not particularly excited to roster him though and I think Costa should get his hand raised.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Costa by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija

Fight Odds: Delija -135, Spivac +115

Odds to end ITD: -290

DraftKings Salaries: Delija 8.6k, Spivac 7.6k

Weight Class: HW

In his first two UFC fights, Ante Delija has brought violence to the HW division and I expect that to continue on Saturday against Serghei Spivac.

Delija stormed into the UFC with a first-round knockout over Marcin Tybura last September, but against Waldo Cortes-Acosta in November, fortune was not on his side. 

Delija bombed forward early in the first round and as Cortes-Acosta covered up, it surely looked like he was on his way to a second stoppage win. The ref stepped in and waved the fight off but upon replay, it was ruled that Delija accidentally poked Cortes-Acosta in the eye. After a short break, the fight was restarted and Cortes-Acosta wasted no time, knocking Delija out moments later.

That brings Delija’s professional record to 26-7, and it’s his fourth official TKO loss, although at least two others came from injury. Delija has spent much of his career in PFL where he was the champion in 2022, and made it to the championship before falling to Brunno Cappelozza in 2021.

Delija is somewhat well-rounded but probably best as a power brawler. He throws with killer intent and is most dangerous in the pocket with his hands. He’s earned 12 wins by knockout and that will likely be his primary path to victory.

Delija isn’t the best in space though and isn’t super defensively sound. He can be hit and he can be hurt, and it’s not a great sign to see him flattened by Cortes-Acosta though it’s a respectable loss, it does make me believe he’ll continue to be hurt in losses.

Delija can also wrestle a bit. He can shoot double legs or drag his opponents down from the clinch, but I don’t particularly trust him to land takedowns in volume. We’ve also seen some sloppy attempts from him in the past that have cost him position.

If he gets on top, he can pound you out or earn some control, so it is at least a path to victory. He has a bunch of subs on his record but none since 2014.

Defensively, he’s OK. He’s physical enough in the clinch to defend takedowns, and he can scramble on the mat a bit. I have not loved some of his footage from bottom position, and he can be mounted, or give up his back. He’s liable to be finished by an opponent who can take him down with consistency though he’s still tough.

Spivac is also coming off a loss to Cortes-Acosta, by decision, which he had a lot more success than I thought and honestly nearly pulled off the victory.

It’s still three losses in his last four and although Spivac has some skills, he has a clear ceiling and is capped against the upper echelon of the division.

Spivac is best on the ground where he can use his Judo skills to wrench opponents down from the clinch. He likes to use arm-triangles from top or the occasional armbar, and he can pound you out as well.

His wins are either quick subs, or he’s finishing opponents with ground-and-pound from top position. For example, landing 6 takedowns on both Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai in 1-2 rounds, and finishing with GnP. Or 3 takedowns in a 1st round win over Greg Hardy..

Spivac can definitely beat bad grapplers.

On the feet, Spivac hasn’t fared well. His best performance may honestly be his most recent one against Cortes-Acosta, who he was able to land on a couple times and back up. Typically, Spivac is the one getting bombed on, 

Of his six UFC losses, four have come by TKO with three coming in round one. He lands 3.45 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25 per minute. He has no knockdowns in the UFC.

As far as the matchup, Delija clearly has more power with his hands, and is the better boxer outright. He has real knockout equity and it is likely to come early. If Delija simply pushes forward and throws like a maniac, which he has done in both UFC fights, a first-round KO is very much on the table.

Conversely, just given variance, Delija could get hurt as well. It’s impossible to bet on a Spivac KO but it’s not an impossible outcome.

I’d wager Delija is probably the better wrestler of the two as well, though I don’t think he’ll want to wrestle much. He could likely land a couple of takedowns on Spivac who defends at 63 percent. Maybe he could win with some top control in an extended fight.

Spivac is likely the better sub grappler of the two, and if he gets top position, he could finish the fight. I really don’t think he’ll have much success wrestling but a couple of takedowns are possible.

If this fight extends, it could get really gross. I’d bet on a lot of clinching as neither man is great at distance, and both want to be in close. It wouldn’t be a bad result for Spivac considering he will have survived an early onslaught, but it’s still tough to trust in his style.

I have to lean toward Delija here for damage equity, and I suppose I’ll pick Delija to win by first-round KO. Spivac doesn’t deal with damage super well so it’s a very live outcome in my mind.

But there’s plenty of variance in early striking exchanges and if Spivac survives, an extended fight could make for an awkward fight. He’s live to pick up the win that way or with some random clinch based wrestling success.

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On DraftKings, this is a fairly standard, boom or bust HW matchup that I believe is worth targeting.

Delija is my preferred play at 8.6k and I think him winning by first round KO is among the more likely outcomes of the matchup. He is also -110 to win ITD which is pretty strong.

Without a quick, first round KO, Delija will very likely bust. There’s no reason to be sure he will score the finish and so there are plenty of ways for this to go wrong. Your exposure should likely be capped because of the variance.

Still, based on how Delija has fought through his first two UFC fights, I’m intrigued. He’s pushed forward and hunted for the kill which I love, and it’s a path that has led to multiple Spivac TKO losses already. So at 8.6k, I’m very willing to play Delija in tournaments and I’d be fine coming in above the field.

Spivac is priced at 7.6k and I think the safest answer is just to play him alongside the field.

I don’t really love him in this matchup. I prefer targeting him against weak grapplers but I’m not sure he can easily take Delija down. Even in an extended fight, these two could just hug each other for 10 minutes and Spivac could bust.

It’s still worth playing into the variance. Delija was just KOd. Spivac has finishing ability on top. He’s cheap at 7.6k and he has a decent ITD line of +238.

I’m not high on Spivac in this matchup but if Delija can’t get him out of there quickly, I could absolutely see Spivac winning and securing the finish along the way. He’s worth secondary exposure because of it.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Delija by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell

Fight Odds: Smith -320, Harrell +270

Odds to end ITD: Over 1.5 RDs -170

DraftKings Salaries: Smith 9.3k, Harrell 6.9k

Weight Class: 170

A late notice matchup here in the welterweight division as hot prospect Jacobe Smith takes on Josiah Harrell.

I don’t want to bury the lead so I’ll talk about Harrell first – he was actually scheduled to fight Jack Della Maddalena in 2023 but was forced out of the fight due to brain surgery.. Yes, brain surgery. 

In his pre-fight check, Harrell was found to have a rare brain disease called moyamoya which essentially limits blood flow to the brain. It was a blessing in disguise that the doctors found it obviously, and in theory, the surgery was necessary and allowed him to continue his fighting career.

Since that cancellation in 2023, Harrell has picked up four wins, most recently getting his hand raised in LFA on January 16th. He’s now 11-0 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned six wins by knockout and four by submission.

I am still not particularly high on Harrell’s skill set and I don’t view him as a strong prospect. I don’t think he’s great in any singular area of the game, and he’s too small for welterweight.

I think Harrell’s best attributes are his toughness and cardio. I’ve seen him outworked and hurt early in fights, and he’s come back to win. In fact, despite 10 of 11 wins coming ITD, only three of those have come in round one.

Harrell has earned four wins in round two, and three wins in round three, plus one decision, which I view as a positive.

But yeah, his boxing is adequate at best. He carries some power in his hands but I don’t see him cleanly winning rounds at the UFC level. His wrestling is OK but I’ve seen him use it more defensively than offensively.

Harrell can definitely be taken down but he’s hard to hold down. He can scramble free. When he gets on top, he can attack the back and the mount, and can finish from those positions. Especially when you couple it with fatigue from his opponents, Harrell can finish fights.

So in terms of his UFC potential, I mostly see Harrell losing early in fights or having to play a defensive role. But he has some outlasting abilities which can come in handy.

This is a tough debut against Jacobe Smith who is also undefeated at 11-0 professionally.

Smith was a 2x Junior College wrestling champion and was then recruited to wrestle at Oklahoma State where he became an All-American. He’s shown to be a proactive wrestler early in his career and an explosive athlete.

On the Contender Series, Smith dominated his opponent with seven takedowns landed, 6 minutes of control and 40 ground strikes before securing the GnP finish in the second round. That earned him his contract to the UFC.

In his UFC debut, Smith knocked out Preston Parsons in the first round which was equally impressive. However in his most recent fight, Smith had some minor struggles before finishing Niko Price in the second round.

That most recent fight is really the important one to touch on. Smith was having success in the first round, taking Price down and controlling him, and landing GnP. He’s also throwing very explosive distance strikes.

In the second round, Smith looked tired. He looked fatigued. He looked labored. He certainly did not look as explosive and I think there was an “uh oh” type of moment from those of us watching.

However, it didn’t really affect him too much because he caught a kick early in the round, took Price down, took his back and subbed him. So therefore, we can’t necessarily label Smith as a “gasser” or anything. He has won by decision twice and it’s pretty possible that his offensive wrestling skills are enough to win rounds, even when he’s tired.

But, I’m definitely more skeptical now. And it makes sense, given how explosive Smith is and how bricked up he is physically. You cannot be that explosive and last for 15 minutes, and if you can, you’re probably a future title contender.

I still like Smith a good amount. He is a very skilled wrestler with good top skills. He can finish fights. He can fight into round two for sure. He can throw big power shots on the feet. I’m just a little skeptical about what happens versus an opponent who can take his shots and keep pushing him backward.

That one dynamic is what makes this matchup intriguing as well because that’s where Harrell profiles to have success.

I think Smith is a clearly better wrestler and should be able to land takedowns. He can probably have mild top control success. He’s also the more powerful striker. If he cannot finish Harrell though, Harrell might be able to mount a comeback.

I still think it would have to be tied to a real cardio failure from Smith. Even if he’s mildly fatigued, he’s still better. He’s not just going to get dominated by Harrell on the mat in that case. BUT if he is truly exhausted, Harrell is the type who can then take him down, take his back and finish the fight.

I lean toward Smith overall and he’s still the easy pick outright. I think he’ll have early success and it could come in the form of a finish. He could also just outwrestle Harrell for three rounds given Harrell is coming in on short notice while Smith was originally scheduled for this event. But I’m not sold Smith easily finishes this fight, which at least gives Harrell a path to victory late.

—

On DraftKings, Smith is one of many strong plays in the top tier at 9.3k though I don’t consider him super safe.

Just given his style of fighting, Smith projects to score well in wins. In the UFC, he’s already put up 114 and 105 in his two wins. Yes those have come ITD but even in a decision, I would guess Smith wrestles enough with success to put up a decent score as well.

So in that sense, he intrigues me quite a bit, especially if the field is scared off and prefers some other names in this range. The lower owned Smith is, the better play he is because he still can reach a ceiling with a victory.

Conversely, Judice is safer. Hernandez has a better ceiling. Edwards has a real wrestling path too. Del Valle could finish the fight. It wouldn’t be incorrect to feel better about other targets than Smith outright.

Distance odds aren’t out yet for Smith but the Over 1.5 RDs prop is set to -170, indicating an extended fight. Perhaps that is reason to be cautious, and from a matchup stand point I’m not projecting an easy, quick finish.

Still, Smith can wrestle and he’s explosive which gives him multiple paths to score. I still consider him a very quality secondary target if nothing else. I wouldn’t mind mild/moderate exposure here.

Harrell is priced at 6.9k and is an OK low-end target.

He just doesn’t project to have much success per minute. He’s the worse wrestler of the two and I doubt he lands tons of strikes. He probably gets controlled.

We essentially just need him to outlast Smith, and take over late and win. In that case, he could put up a strong score for a cheap price tag.

I’m not opposed to the idea, but he still only rates out as a low end. His ITD line isn’t strong and his floor is weak. Mix him in on occasion when you need pure salary relief as there’s a path to victory but it’s still a tough matchup and I wouldn’t be excited to have a large investment.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Smith by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Zachary Reese vs. Michel Pereira

Fight Odds: Pereira -155, Reese +135

Odds to end ITD: -290

DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 8.5k, Reese 7.7k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an interesting matchup here between Michel Pereira and Zachary Reese.

Pereira is generally a striker. He lands 4.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.35 in return. Those metrics were actually really good until Anthony Hernandez ruined them recently, outlanding Pereira mostly on the ground 152-24 in significant strikes. 

Pereira is very athletic and controls range well. He generally springs into distance to land his power strikes. He had won eight straight fights but then lost his most recent fights against Anthony Hernandez, Abus Magomedov, and Kyle Daukaus. I consider him an above-average striker for this weight class. I also consider his power decent as well, and he is capable of knocking opponents out at this level.

Pereira can also wrestle a bit and lands 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 76 percent. I consider him an alright wrestler although I question his ability to outwrestle decent grapplers.

Pereira is overall a fine fighter. I do think his eight fight win streak was a bit random as I don’t think he is that great of a fighter. I do respect his game to a degree though.

Pereira does concern me though. He has slowed down terribly before which is concerning, especially against Tristan Connelly a few years back. He has paced himself much better since that fight though so his cardio has not come back to bite him much since. I still do think he is prone to slowing down though given his third round vs Nike Price where he looked a bit fatigued.

Also in Pereira’s matchup against Hernandez he was outlanded 152-24 in significant strikes and taken down 10 times and broken with pace. That pace set by Hernandez was insane though and almost no one can fight at the pace of Hernandez. Hernandez attempted 29 takedown attempts which is just nuts. So I don’t blame Pereira much for that fight. However, you did see that Pereira can be taken down and taken advantage of on the mat. I think good grapplers can still have grappling success against Pereira even if they don’t push a crazy pace. His first layer takedown defense is pretty strong but tenacious grapplers can beat him.

Pereira will be taking on Zach Reese. Zach Reese is a volatile middleweight known for high-intensity, short-duration performances. He lands 4.32 significant strikes per minute but doesn’t have the best defense, absorbing 3.82 strikes with a low defensive rate of 39%. 

While he has the power to end fights instantly, evidenced by his 20-second TKO of Julian Marquez, he can also be hurt himself and has been finished in the first round a couple of times.

His grappling is okay, averaging 3.41 takedowns per 15 minutes with a high 66% accuracy, and he actively hunts submissions. He is at least persistent with takedowns here and there and can opportunistically submit people from time to time. However, his defensive wrestling is less reliable, and he only defends takedowns at 57 percent.

I used to think Reese was an early finish or bust fighter but he has fought to the distance a couple of times and held up fine.

Reese is fine. He has some defensive issues but he is moderately dangerous and not terrible anywhere. 

As far as this matchup goes, I think this is a very competitive one. There are also like 40 different outcomes that I could picture thinking about this fight in my head so there is a ton of variance here.

I do think Pereira has some early finish upside here. Pereira is pretty dangerous and I could see Reese getting hurt. I could see Pereira being a more processed striker throughout too, and I tend to give Pereira the striking advantage early.

I still think Reese could hurt Pereira too though and even the striking rounds could be competitive. Furthermore, if this becomes a dog fight, I could see Reese just fighting harder, going for more takedowns and having success later in this fight. Either guy could probably land takedowns here.

This is a tough one man. Both guys have a lot of flaws. They both also have traits that can cause problems for one another. I do think I am going to pick Pereira but he has also looked worse and worse lately so this is just me flipping a coin.

—

On DraftKings, I mostly agree with Tim that this is one of the more high variance fights on the slate.

Pereira has looked bad enough in recent fights to the point that the community thinks he’s washed. Getting KOd 43 seconds by Daukaus is not great. Getting run through by Hernandez on the mat isn’t great though is understandable.

Reese on the other hand, is going life and death with the bottom tier of the roster. Cody Brundage and Azamat Bekoev knocked him out so badly that he was legally declared dead (joke). Jackson McVey wasn’t far off from knocking him out. I’m highly skeptical he can take damage.

But he can also dish out damage, and has some early KOs on his resume. He can grapple a bit. He can kick at distance and go the distance. So there are just a lot of potential outcomes here.

I lean toward Pereira being the better fighter of the two and more likely to edge out striking rounds with better range management. But either man could get hurt.

Pereira is priced at 8.5k and I bet he gets overlooked this week. People won’t want to play him and he might just be outright contrarian.

I understand it and he also might bust, even in an extended fight. But if he is contrarian, Pereira is a fighter I’d like some exposure to because we’ve seen Reese brutally KOd multiple times already. One of Pereira’s more likely win conditions may be a quick KO and he has a decent ITD line of +116.

It’s hard to have faith here but I like Pereira somewhat as a low-owned, upside target.

Reese will probably be more popular at 7.7k, as a salary saver with upside.

Reese might also have a lot of early KO equity baked into his win condition, and he’s +191 ITD which is pretty strong. His wins have scored well, and with Pereira coming off the quick KO loss, it’s easy to picture Reese scoring a finish as well.

I’m a little hesitant to eat any chalk on Reese because I don’t think this is a great matchup for him on paper necessarily. Sure he could win, but unless he wins by KO, I doubt he smashes. I could see Pereira fighting more cautiously at distance and slowing the fight down.

The overall ITD line here is -280 which is still solid and suggests finishing equity on both sides. You can argue this is another “obvious” underdog spot to get some action around the field, and that is the safest way to play it. 

I don’t have a super strong take, but my lean is to get on some other underdogs ahead of Reese this week, even though he’ll still be included in my player pool. It’s simply a high-variance fight and there’s no one right or wrong answer.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pereira by Decision (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal

Fight Odds: Leal -135, Njokuani +105

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Leal 8.2k, Njokuani 8k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a middle class welterweight fight here as Carlos Leal and Chidi Njokuani will square off in a seemingly competitive fight.

Leal is mostly a pace striker. He has only had three UFC fights but is landing 9.57 significant strikes per minute and is absorbing 7.61 in return. 

Leal isn’t the most technical striker but he can turn on some aggression and has some decent hands. I also generally think he is tough, although he was knocked out in his last matchup against Muslim Salikhov in round one in a big upset.

I still think Leal is a competent striker though and I do like his pace. His cardio is strong. I do think he is a bit hittable, and slicker and more talented strikers can surely beat him. However, Leal can bang and I think he will be in fun action striking fights.

Leal can also grapple a little bit but I don’t consider him the best offensive wrestler and he has only landed 1 takedown in the UFC thus far. His defensive grappling is very solid and he defends takedowns at 90 percent.

Leal will be taking on Chidi Njokuani. Njokuani is mostly a striker. He lands 4.72 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.64 in return. He is pretty skilled at range with his kicks. He has strong leg kicks and accurate front kicks to the body. He is also moderately powerful and has won by knockout several times in his career, with his most recent coming against Zaleski dos Santos in his last win. I like Njokuani’s clinch game as well. He can manipulate his opponents in the clinch and land knees and score with other Thai based strikes.

Njokuani is a BJJ black belt but has lost on the mat several times. He lost to very solid grapplers though like John Salter, etc. I actually think his grappling is fairly decent when he is fresh and he isn’t a huge liability on the mat. Although Jake Matthews did just run him over. He doesn’t wrestle offensively though and has never landed a takedown in his UFC career.

I do worry about Njokuani when he is pressured. He isn’t as effective going backwards and I do think his cardio is a bit suspect later in fights if a pace is pushed on him. He has lost by knockout twice in the UFC to Gregory Rodrigues and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Those losses just concerned me as Njokuani just wilted to pressure, and I question his cardio a bit.

Furthermore, Njokuani lost a striking based decision to Albert Duraev which was a terrible look. He was outlanded 45-40 in significant strikes and his volume looked terrible. I just think Njokuani may be afraid to gas so sometimes he conserves himself and doesn’t do enough.

As far as this matchup goes, I think Njokuani is due to have some early success. Leal is a bit hittable and Njokuani is dangerous and he could potentially hurt Leal early or just win some of the early exchanges.

After that though, Leal has a couple advantages. Leal’s cardio and pressure may get to Njokuani. Njokuani hates being pressured and I could see the pace of Leal giving him issues. So Leal having success in the back end of this fight seems realistic.

Furthermore, if anyone has grappling success here it will likely be Leal. I don’t think Leal is the best offensive wrestler but it wouldn’t shock me if he landed a takedown or two here, especially if Njokuani is tired.

So although I think this is extremely competitive and I don’t have the strongest of opinions, I am going to pick Leal here.

—

On DraftKings, I’m pretty excited for this matchup and I lean towards targeting it frequently.

I guess that’s not a hot take, as the fight is lined -600 to end inside the distance. There is no easy pick here though, whether it be the winner or the method. So variance is on the table.

I do lean slightly toward Njokuani even though I think Leal likely wins an extended fight. Leal’s pressure and volume could surely wear Njokuani down, and lead to a finish. He may also wrestle.

Leal is absorbing 7.6 strikes per minute though, and he’s coming off a KO loss to Salikhov. And in the fight prior (maybe we should have seen this coming) he was punched in the face 32 times by Alex Morono before finishing him. I respect that Leal landed 79 sig. strikes of his own, but his defense is simply lacking.

Njokuani is the better singular striker of the two and has real damage upside. He’s also only absorbing 2.64 sig. strikes per minute. I think early damage upside is in favor of Njokuani here.

At 8k, he’s my slightly preferred target, though you can realistically go the other way if you want. Njokuani is +150 to win ITD and more dependent on damage, most likely. He will bust in an extended fight but I think an early KO is on the table.

This is essentially just a boom/bust striking fight and you shouldn’t go too crazy on Njokuani. My guess is he won’t be too popular though and I wouldn’t mind being overweight.

Leal is priced at 8.2k and coming off the KO loss I’m unsure the public will jump on him either. Both sides of this matchup could be underowned.

Leal is actually -110 to win ITD so he rates out really well, and he has plenty of volume upside. Njokuani doesn’t absorb a ton of strikes, though he can be hurt and can be taken down.

There’s at least a path to a KO for Leal, and a path for a swarming, attrition based finish in the later rounds. He has upside because of his style and also rates out as a good secondary target.

I lean toward being in on this fight just given the hectic nature of Leal, and his willingness to force exchanges. Maybe coming off the KO loss he’ll be more hesitant but the fight lined -600 to end ITD, it seems like a good mid-range tournament fight to target.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Njokuani by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

Ode Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris

Fight Odds: Idiris -130, Osourne +110

Odds to end ITD: -135

DraftKings Salaries: Idiris 8.4k, Osbourne 7.8k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with an exciting flyweight clash, as Alibi Idiris tries to find his footing in the UFC against veteran Ode Osbourne. Let’s dive in.

Ode Osbourne makes his 14th walk to the Octagon under the promotion’s banner on Saturday, and he has had quite the exciting journey so far. The “Jamaican Sensation” is 5-7 in the UFC and has fought plenty of solid competition. Although he is 1-4 in his last five, he fights close with high-level competition including Steve Erceg, Asu Almabayev and Ronaldo Rodriguez, and has solid wins over Charles Johnson and Luis Gurule. 

Osbourne is pretty well-rounded, but I would consider him a primary striker. He has a 77% finish rate with finishes split evenly between KO’s and submissions. He is very quick with his striking and carries solid power. He is landing 3.07 strikes per minute which maybe shows us a lack of output, but he is also often entangled in grappling exchanges which can limit that number. 

On the mat, I do have my concerns as he has a 66% takedown defense and has been submitted four times. However, he is someone who is able to scramble and can also land takedowns of his own rate, landing 1.09 per 15 minutes. 

The issue for Ode has been his consistency. Sometimes he’s going shot for shot with Charles Johnson and winning minutes, other times he’s sticking his head into guillotines and losing optics. In fact, he has been finished five times in the UFC and we have seen both the durability and defensive grappling be tested, as well as the cardio as he slows down later. 

But offensively, he is not someone to take lightly. He can compete in all areas and has the ability to hurt you, especially early. I just question the consistency and the defensive tendencies. I also have to mention, Ode has been very, very active on social media and in interviews. I like the fact he’s posting plenty of training videos and showing he’s working, but he’s also trying to be a mini content creator and I hope his intentions are still in the right place. 

Overall, Osbourne is a dangerous offensive fighter with solid power, quick strikes and the ability to wrestle when needed, however I question his durability, defensive grappling and cardio and is someone I would like to see more consistency before trusting him at too high of a clip.

Alibi Idiris didn’t have the UFC debut he wanted. He competed on TUF, where he was an undefeated 10-0 prospect and a heavy favorite to beat Joseph Morales and win the show in August of last year. 

However, after a solid start he was ultimately finished in round two and took the first loss of his pro career. Idiris was highly touted in that season for good reason. You watch his regional tape and this guy is good. He is very quick and a predominant grappler. He has solid entries, a good ability to chain attacks together and great top control. 

Additionally, with a 60% finish rate he has shown the ability to finish fights. His regional level of competition was solid as well so it was surprising to see him fail to dominate Morales the same way. 

In the cage, Idiris is aggressive. He wants to go forward, crash the clinch, stay in your face and look to suffocate you on the mat. With this, he has dangerous clinch striking and the ability to catch people off guard with his striking since everyone is worried about the takedown defense. He crashes the pocket with every exchange and if you aren’t able to keep up with the high pace, you will often drown. 

We did see last time that if you are able to match that high pace and put him on his back foot, he isn’t as dangerous and it was the takedowns of Morales that stifled the offence of Idiris. Morales had three minutes of control time and was able to take away some of that energy from Idiris, which is a good idea but often easier said than done. 

On the feet, he doesn’t spend too much time from range so it’s tough to gauge his defensive tendencies, but he looks to be fairly durable and has shown the cardio to win decisions in the past. Overall, I do think Idiris is better than his last performance, but that showed us that he is also beatable. He will look to bring a high pace and crash the pocket which I like, but I would like to see him shore up his get up game, cardio and distance striking optics before trusting him against the best of this division. 

This is a fun matchup here at 125. Osbourne is super inconsistent but always a threat to win. His hand speed and power, especially early on, can always stop a fight and he had Erceg in tough spots last time too. But I think this is a tough matchup. Idiris was a large favorite for a reason last time and I think he is better than that performance showed. His aggression, ability to close distance and suffocating pressure in the clinch and on the mat should be a problem for Ode, especially as he has slowed down in the past. 

Additionally, we have seen Ode give up position and be submitted and I do think Idiris has the advantage in those exchanges. Of course there is always a chance Ode lands something big and I actually even favor Ode in the distance striking. I just don’t think there will be much time spent from range and I can’t trust Ode to land takedowns at a high clip. I actually think it’ll be Idiris having more ground success here and racking up more control time. 

So give me Idiris to get back on track here. Osbourne is the perfect prospect test because he’s no easy task but certainly is beatable, and I think Idiris gets the best of him here with the forward pressure and the danger factor on the mat. 

—

On DraftKings, this is an awkward fight but a fairly binary one as well.

It’s awkward because Idiris looked really terrible in his UFC debut. In hindsight, the flaws I noted in his lack of physicality and reliance on spinning techniques were understated, but Morales is a tough matchup.

Now he’ll fight Osbourne who is not as strong on the mat, and who already succumbed to Idiris’ training partner Almabayev. In theory, Idiris can have more wrestling success here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won cleanly.

It is difficult to trust him though. And quite frankly, I don’t. I’m not super confident in his wrestling urgency and I thought he kind of wilted against Morales. Osbourne throws big shots so if he ultimately tags Idiris and hurts him, I wouldn’t be surprised.

Idiris is priced at 8.4k now and is a semi boom or bust grappling target. His upside is multiple takedowns, control, ground-and-pound and a finish. Almabayev won in RD 2 against Osbourne and scored 105. Osbourne has also been hurt a bunch of times too.

Idiris only has one pro win by sub though and he’s only +196 to win ITD here. I honestly lean against playing a lot of him, as I think there are plenty of paths to a solid 80-90 point score, but probably fewer to a 100-110 type of score.

My guess is also that the field is scared off. Ramiz should draw a ton of attention below him, and there are others in this range like Delija and Neal who rate out well. Idiris probably comes in low 20s publicly which isn’t bad.

I view him as a fine secondary target overall because the matchup is somewhat binary, and Idiris has a path to a strong score with grappling domination. I am far from confident he achieves that domination though and I honestly lean toward targeting others in this range ahead of him.

Osbourne is priced at 7.8k and just needs a knockout.

He doesn’t do enough per minute to put up any kind of floor and he very rarely wrestles either. A lot of his wins come by RD 1 KO so he has plenty of upside on paper, and he’s also +273 to win ITD which is OK.

I really don’t love Osbourne’s skill set though, and I think Idiris could easily skate away from him, limit exchanges, wrestle a bit and kill off the ceiling here. It’s still worth considering Osbourne as a secondary/upside target, especially as he’ll come in lower owned than some fighters surrounding him.

I can’t say I love Osbourne though and I’d lean more toward him being a low-end, boom/bust type target compared to some others in this same range.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Idiris by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule

Fight Odds: Coria -280, Gurule +240

Odds to end ITD: +115

DraftKings Salaries: Coria 9k, Gurule 7.2k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a bit of a random fight here in the flyweight division between Alden Coria and Luis Gurule.

Coria is 11-3 professionally and the former Fury FC flyweight champion. He has five wins by knockout and four wins by submission.

He’s picked up a few finishes in a row, but prior to that stretch, Coria had lost three of five, and didn’t rate out as a particularly promising prospect. 

He had a big win against Alessandro Costa in his UFC debut back in September though. He was a big underdog in that fight, and he outstruck Costa early on, showing some decent straight punch combinations and speed. He also got a takedown at one point. He did get his back taken but managed to escape. 

Costa did get injured later on in the fight which assisted Coria in getting the finish. However, it was a justified win as Coria bested Costa pretty clearly until that point. Overall Coria outstruck Costa 41-12 in significant strikes.

I would consider Coria best as a striker. I don’t think he is very powerful but he does have some straight punching handspeed. I also think he is pretty technical and can kick as well. I think he is a decent striker who can win rounds in the UFC. However, I again don’t think he is super powerful and i don’t think he is a world beater on the feet either. I generally think at flyweight, he will just be competitive with guys. I think he will only dominate lower tier competition. He is serviceable standing though.

Coria has also had struggles on the mat, where he was taken down a bunch of times in his losses. He can work up well at times, but he’s also been submitted and I don’t love his first-level takedown defense. He did get his back taken by Costa and put in a bad spot. However, credit to Coria for surviving and reversing the position. I still do think good grapplers at flyweight can likely expose Coria there.

Coria also has an offensive grappling win in his recent stretch, where he took his opponent down multiple times, took the back and finished with an arm-triangle choke. In theory he’s improving. He also landed a couple of takedowns against Costa.

I basically just see Coria as a young fighter who seems to be improving but he is probably more of a serviceable fighter than anything. He can strike technically, seems to have some competency in grappling, and he also has cardio. So he belongs in the UFC. My guess is he won’t rise too far in this weight class but I think he can definitely beat lower tier fighters in the UFC but only time will tell.

Speaking of lower tier fighters in the UFC, that is exactly what Coria will face this weekend against Luis Gurule.

Luis Gurule is an American fighter who is 10-2 professionally. He is 32 years old. 

Gurule booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating extremely talented Division 1 3x time Oklahoma State all-American and undefeated prospect Nick Piccininni.

Nick Piccininni is a super high level wrestler and has a win over Spencer Lee who is a 2024 Olympic silver medalist. 

Piccininni actually landed 10 takedowns on 20 attempts against Gurule. However, Gurle minimized the control of Piccininni and scrambled up very well. Gurle actually still managed to land 105 significant strikes, got the better of the striking exchanges and won the decision. I thought it was a good performance by Gurule but it was more of a showcase of his defensive wrestling than his offensive production.

Gurule comes from a wrestling background and wrestled at a division 2 school. The wrestling background makes sense given he was able to scramble with Piccininni. 

Gurule doesn’t always wrestle offensively though, even though I think he is somewhat capable. He also showed he is skilled as a grappler and locked in an arm triangle a few fights ago. 

I am not sure how good of a submission grappler he actually is though. He seems positionally aware. However, sometimes he just lets opponents up and I consider kickboxing to be his preferred method of fighting. He also just hasn’t wrestled much in the UFC and his takedowns have been ineffective. I think he is more so a good defensive grappler but doesn’t have much offensive wrestling potency.

Gurule is a decent technical striker and he prefers to kickbox. Apparently he has a kickboxing background. He will pressure often. He will mix in inside boxing by springing into range. He also low kicks and kind of just touches up his opponents. He will mix in a rear teep kick to the body as well. I consider his hands decent. He likes to move forward a lot and I consider him skilled defensively. I consider his cardio to be a strength.

I do think Gurule is a decent fighter and he seems technically well-rounded. He can kind of go through the motions technically everywhere.

My main issue with Gurule is just that he kind of only strikes and I don’t consider him super talented on the feet. He is decent, but I feel like he is always stuck in touch sparring mode. He kind of just goes through the motions offensively and does the bare minimum offensively. He just doesn’t do enough damage either. He is okay but his offense limitations will surely cap him In the UFC. 

Those limitations showed against Jesus Aguilar as well. Aguilar isn’t even very good but Aguilar is aggressive and fights hard. Aguilar is almost the opposite of Gurule in a way. Gurule is honestly technically equal or superior to Aguilar but because Aguilar was willing to throw more, fight more aggressively and with more passion, etc., Aguilar was able to get the decision win because of that. Gurule’s passiveness is clearly a problem and it will likely get him cut from the UFC this weekend.

As far as this matchup goes, you can probably guess where I am going with this. I will be picking Coria because Gurule doesn’t do enough and that’s really it.

On the feet, I think Coria is a bit better but he is also just a bit more willing to throw and with more intent. I think that will get Coria ahead on the cards and Gurule will probably be stuck in sparring mode wondering why he lost the fight after 15 minutes. I think that alone is why I favor Coria here.

I still am somewhat skeptical of Coria on the mat. However, I don’t trust Gurule’s takedowns or aggression to take advantage. My guess is these guys generally strike and that the winner of the striking exchanges will win this fight. Given Gurule has questionable Fight IQ and doesn’t throw enough, Coria should have the advantage.

—

On DraftKings, Coria is priced up to 9k off the strong UFC debut, and I only view him as a secondary target.

He’s not going to carry a strong wrestling projection in this matchup, and even if he did land a couple of takedowns, there’d be no reason for me to assume he could control Gurule for long stretches of time.

Otherwise, Coria will throw moderate volume, and that’s it. He almost certainly needs a finish to pay off at this price tag, and he’s only +196 to win ITD.

The most promising aspect to look at is that Gurule was knocked out by Osbourne, and then hurt most recently by Jesus Aguilar which is really concerning. He may just be a bit chinny and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Coria finished him. Coria isn’t some insane power threat though which is why the odds are still juiced to go the distance.

You can sell me on the idea that Coria is a solid, semi-contrarian play here despite being boom or bust. He at least has some path to a knockout and if he gets it, he could contend for the optimal.

I still think he’s tough to prioritize at 9k, and with juiced GTD lines, Coria is only a secondary target for me. When I can’t pay up past 9.1k or 9.2k for example, Coria is someone who I will start to consider more in my builds.

Gurule is priced at 7.1k and I’m not too intrigued.

He’ll rate out best for a floor target even though the floor is still low. The fight as a whole is +115 to end inside the distance, so Gurule might get three rounds here where he can produce points. But I don’t see him landing tons of strikes.

I’d honestly like him best if he wrestled, which is hard to predict, but not out of the question. And if he wrestles, that would actually give him real win equity. For a cheap price tag and low public ownership, perhaps there’s some low-end viability here.

Coria is arguably being overvalued off the UFC debut win but Gurule has looked straight up bad in the UFC thus far, and he’s not someone I’m dying to invest in. For the price and matchup, it’s still OK to include him in your portfolio as a low-end target but there are other dogs I feel much better about this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Coria by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Nora Cornolle vs. Joselyne Edwards

Fight Odds: Edwards -305, Cornolle +255

Odds to end ITD: +190

DraftKings Salaries: Edwards 9.2k, Cornolle 7k

Weight Class: 135

We have the most random rematch of all-time as Joselyne Edwards looks to avenge her first loss to Nora Cornolle.

It definitely feels like the UFC is doing Edwards a favor here, coming off back-to-back first-round stoppages, Edwards is someone the UFC can get behind. Cornolle is coming off a horrible loss to Karol Rosa and the UFC probably wouldn’t mind cutting her.

On top of that, most people thought Edwards won the first fight. It was in Cornolle’s home country of France, and although Edwards took her down five times and dominated the end of the matchup, Cornolle was awarded two rounds and the split decision win.

So this is a good chance for Edwards to avenge that first loss, continue her win streak, and it’s not a surprise to see her favored moderately despite the first defeat.

These two last squared off in 2023, so although some time has passed, I don’t think either has a dramatically different style. Cornolle likes to march forward and throw heavy punches, and she has the most success with damage, often in clinch.

Outside of her last win over Edwards, Cornolle has a second round TKO over Melissa Mullins, and a second round submission against Hailey Cowan. Cornolle does come from a kickboxing background but she’ll be 37 years old this year and wasn’t particularly special in that area.

Against Edwards, 23 of her 40 sig. strikes came from the clinch, plenty of which were landed while Edwards was attempting takedowns. She lands 2.75 sig. strikes per minute in total, absorbing 1.98 per minute. She’s not super strong from distance or a great round winner, but she has some pop.

The big issue is wrestling, and more specifically, ground control. Edwards took her down five times on eight attempts and earned nearly nine minutes of control. She took Cornolle’s back late in the fight and nearly had the RNC sunk in.

In the first round, Cornolle was able to reverse position though, and that arguably won her the fight. So credit to her, Cornolle didn’t get held down in that scenario.

However, Cornolle is now coming off a loss to Karol Rosa in which she was taken down early in the second round, and early in the third round, and held down for the entirety of both. Rosa had 4:53 of control in round two and 4:29 of control in round three. That’s about as bad as it gets.

Again she survived, but this is clearly a major issue for Cornolle off her back. Her takedown defense is sitting at 47 percent and she’s particularly bad in space. Her clinch takedown defense is better.

I don’t see the dynamics of this matchup being much different than the first. Edwards is the more consistent, higher volume kickboxer at range, but Cornolle can stay competitive with her via power shots.

If the fight plays out purely on the feet, it would likely be competitive. Edwards didn’t have much range success in the first matchup so I’m not inclined to favor her heavily there, despite her recent finishes.

However, Edwards has a path to dominating top control and a finish. It is where she had success in the first fight, and it’s obvious that’s where Cornolle is still weak. I think 3-5 takedowns for Edwards is very much in play, as is 10+ minutes of control, as is a submission finish.

My main hesitation is that Edwards isn’t necessarily a dominant wrestler. She has some throws in her game and she got in trouble a couple of times in the first fight trying to drag Cornolle down from the clinch. It’s possible she could underperform there again.

I still think Edwards eventually gets this fight to the mat. She can wrestle in open space a bit. And on top, as long as she doesn’t get outright reversed, she probably cruises to multiple round wins, if not a finish. Favoring Edwards moderately seems fair to me, all things considered.

—

On DraftKings, I’m pretty interested in Edwards and am willing to buy into her ceiling in this matchup.

It’s worth noting that if she’d been awarded the win against Cornolle last time, Edwards would have only scored 89 DK points, which isn’t nearly enough at 9.2k.

Plus, Edwards is only +328 to win ITD, so she does not rate out well for finishing equity compared to most of this range. She doesn’t need to be a priority.

My primary point to note in favor of Edwards, is that there’s a path for her to earn 10-15 minutes of top control here. She already took down Cornolle five times in the last matchup, but only earned 8:42 of control. That’s still a decent amount, but she was reversed on the mat in one round which killed off some of her upside.

She also was dominating Cornolle on the mat late, which could have led to a finish.

Furthermore, in Cornolle’s last two rounds (of her most recent fight), she gave up 4:53 of control and 4:29 of control. She cannot get back up. The path for Edwards to wrestle with some urgency and control Cornolle for long stretches is very much on the table.

At 9.2k, that can easily lead to a 100 point score. It still may not be enough for her to stand out among the rest of the range, if others are winning ITD, but Cornolle just allowed 105 DK points in a wrestling based loss and I think Edwards can finish similarly.

Ultimately, this is a strong top tier and you can pick and choose whoever you like. Edwards will bust without wrestling and control. But the path is there, with mild submission equity too, and for the price tag I’m totally fine with her as a strong secondary option.

Cornolle is priced at 7k and I don’t have much interest in her.

You can essentially look to the fact that she beat Edwards last time, and therefore, she can beat her again. But it won’t come with a super high score, and she only put up 73 points in that last victory. Cornolle is also +586 to win ITD here which is poor.

At 7k, any kind of win is going to be a positive thing, but I don’t see a lot of outcomes where she crushes. With other stud options in the 7k range she could still be pushed off the optimal. Plus it’s not a great matchup.

I only consider Cornolle a low-end target and if you want a small percentage of exposure, that’s fine. I’ll lean against playing her with a limited portfolio.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Edwards by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Punahele Soriano

Fight Odds: Brahimaj -120, Soriano +100

Odds to end ITD: -220

DraftKings Salaries: Brahimaj 8.3k, Soriano 7.9k

Weight Class: 170

This should be a fun action fight in the welterweight division between the storming Ramiz Brahimaj and Punahele Soriano.

Brahimaj, after losing three of his first five fights in the UFC, has rattled off three consecutive wins, each of which has come ITD. He knocked out Mickey Gall in a couple of minutes in 2024, submitted Billy Ray Goff in the first round in May 2025, and most recently, submitted Austin Vanderford in October.

I was quite high on Vanderford in that matchup against Brahimaj, and unfortunately had to eat the loss as Vanderford tapped out in the second round. The fight still went down as I expected to a degree, with Vanderford landing some easy takedowns, but he couldn’t maintain control, got a bit hurt in the second round and then made a mistake on the mat that cost him the fight.

Brahimaj is now 13-5 professionally with 12 wins by submission and one by knockout. He has never won by decision. Not only that, but this most recent win was only the second time Brahimaj has ever won past the first round..

Brahimaj comes from a submission grappling background and given his win history, I do consider him best on the mat. However, he’s a fairly poor wrestler which is part of the issue.

Brahimaj lands 1.74 takedowns per 15 minutes but it’s a bit misleading as he’s only reached the 2 takedown total twice in eight fights. He has landed a takedown in five of eight fights which is mediocre.

Additionally, he sucks defensively and only defends takedowns at 48 percent. He will hunt for guillotine chokes which sometimes works, but more often does not. It contributes to his boom or bust style, but I do consider him dangerous in that regard, and he seems to be only getting more dangerous.

Still, opponents who survive the initial guillotine attempt will simply end up on top of him, where he is much less dangerous, and they can grind out rounds. Court McGee took him down five times and earned 11 minutes of control, and Themba Gorimbo took him down five times and earned 10 minutes of control.

On the feet, Brahimaj is improving there as well. He’s a decent boxer and he has some speed and pop in his hands. He’s just a terrible minute winner, and his best output performance was landing 45 sig. strikes in a debut where he absorbed 74 sig. strikes and had his ear torn off.

In total Brahimaj lands 2.23 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.42 with a 44 percent defensive rate. He simply does not rate out as a strong round winner.

Therefore, I consider Brahimaj to be a boom or bust grappler for the most part. He’s impossible to trust in extended fights though he still has a path via TKO or submission. He is a dangerous grappler but he needs the guillotine or the back, and his lack of wrestling will continue to hurt him.

This is a tough test in my opinion against Puna Soriano who is also having a career resurgence at 170 pounds, and he’s won three straight fights, most recently defeating Veretennikov in October.

Soriano has had similar questions as Brahimaj in the past, where the majority of his wins come early and by knockout, and he’s much more difficult to trust in extended fights. He has proven himself more in that regard lately though, and has won two wrestling based decisions in his past three victories.

Soriano comes from a wrestling background and it’s nice to see him using those skills more. He lands 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and although he’s only taken down four of 11 tracked opponents, his two biggest wrestling totals have come in his last three fights.

He absolutely brutalized Miguel Baeza on the mat, taking him down five times and landing 331 total strikes. That clearly gave him more confidence to wrestle against Veretennikov, who he took down four times, and landed 163 total strikes.

Soriano also defends takedowns at 40 percent, which is very poor, but 11 of his 18 career takedowns allowed came in one fight to Nick Maximov, which is still a divisional record. I actually thought he defended well in that matchup, and he’s tough to hold down. That was also up at 185 pounds, as was his ground based loss to Stoltzfus.

Soriano can be taken down ultimately but he’s a physical fighter who is tough to hold down, and I don’t see Brahimaj earning any control here. He’ll need to capitalize on a big moment, take the back and sink in the RNC, or jump on a guillotine.

On the feet, Soriano throws bombs and is one of the real power strikers in the division. He’s not the most technical, but his metrics are decent, landing 4.66 per minute while absorbing 3.42 per minute with a 47 percent defensive rate.

This matchup is really intriguing because Soriano is a tough matchup for Brahimaj on paper.

Soriano is the better wrestler here, and the more likely fighter to land takedowns. Soriano is also the better striker, and more likely to do damage. Soriano is also the better round winner and the only fighter of the two who has ever won a decision. Brahimaj is favored though.

To me, it simply comes down to whether Brahimaj can threaten with a choke. He will not be able to hold Soriano down. He will need to immediately take the back and finish the fight, or Soriano will just stand back up. I honestly think his better chance is if Soriano wrestles, where Brahimaj might be able to jump the guillotine.

Over three rounds, Soriano is simply much more likely to earn takedowns, earn control and land ground-and-pound.

On the feet, Brahimaj might be able to hang around but his volume isn’t great, and his metrics suck. He’s also at a big power disadvantage. He could potentially hurt Soriano, but Soriano could absolutely hurt him too. Even Court McGee knocked Brahimaj down and he took a ton of damage from Max Griffin.

I’d favor Soriano here over three rounds on the feet to edge out rounds with damage. He’s also the more likely of the two to win by TKO straight up.

My primary fear is the guillotine. If Soriano chooses to wrestle or is forced to wrestle, he might get caught. Brahimaj is a better sub grappler than him. I still hate relying on that because it’s not hard to defend, but fighters typically have bad submission defense.

I ultimately have to favor Soriano here as the fighter with more paths to victory. I lean toward him doing more damage, landing a couple of takedowns and winning a decision. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Brahimaj picked up another guillotine choke along the way though.

—

On DraftKings, this is a matchup with a lot of fantasy potential though there are still some tricky elements.

Brahimaj is priced at 8.3k and I think he could be one of the more chalky mid-range fighters this week. With 14 fights on the docket, ownership will still be capped, and he’s only -120 to win. But he’s also +113 to win ITD and is coming off three early finishes in a row.

Brahimaj’s style is built on early finishes, so in a win, I expect that trend to continue. I personally think a RD1/2 sub is the most likely outcome for him in a win, which does give him upside and could make him a priority in this range.

It’s also worth noting that he just won by RD 2 sub and scored 84.5 DK points. He has a RD 1 sub which scored 98 DK points. Brahimaj arguably doesn’t have an elite top end ceiling as he might only win via one moment, without a takedown or knockdown.

I have no problems mixing in Brahimaj in this range and I still view him as a quality target. I’m not in love with the idea of playing him at chalk and I have some other matchup analysis concerns, but at worst, he’s a fine upside/secondary play this week.

Soriano is priced at 7.9k and has absolutely crushed recently. I’m very curious whether that will boost his public ownership this week.

I also don’t know how the field will feel generally. Soriano rates out OK from a profile sense but he’s only +276 to win ITD. He may have a striking path but he may also be more likely to win an extended fight here, which doesn’t guarantee a ceiling.

I don’t view Soriano as a guarantee this week – to win or to score extremely well.

However, in two of his past three fights, he’s wrestled and crushed, scoring 118 and 169. I don’t know if he will wrestle here, but it’s how Brahimaj has lost multiple times in the UFC. So multiple takedowns, lots of control and ground strikes are in play once again for Soriano.

There are simply a lot of options in the mid-range and I wouldn’t fault you for going any direction. I do think Soriano can put up 90+ points via a wrestling based decision, and I also think he has some knockout equity. The fight as a whole is still -220 to end inside the distance.

I’ll end up with a fair amount of Soriano personally, partially as leverage off Brahimaj. He’s still firmly in the secondary/upside category this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Soriano by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Phil Rowe

Fight Odds: Lebosnoyani -205, Rowe +175

Odds to end ITD: -180

DraftKings Salaries: Lebosnoyani 8.8k, Rowe 7.4k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues as Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani makes his UFC debut against welterweight finisher Phil Rowe. Let’s dive in. 

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani makes his first walk to the Octagon this weekend after a memorable DWCS performance last year. The 27 year old Californian “JPL” has had some decent hype around him regionally due to his exciting highlight reel and finishing ability. Going 7-1 in LFA has shown him some solid promise, and his ability to maintain an 89% finish rate with 3 KOs and 5 submissions, as well as 7 of those coming in the first round, helps only promote his name even more. 

Lebosnoyani is a well-rounded athlete with solid karate striking and the ability to grapple well offensively. In fact, he started his career almost purely on the mat, with four of his first five wins coming by submission and a very relentless ground attack. He is explosive into the takedown entries and pretty suffocating from top control. However, more recently he has fallen in love with his hands. 

He does have good in and out movement and solid shot selection. He was able to get a nice highlight reel KO in his Contender Series bout against Jack Congdon, and showed that he has good power to go with his good offensive wrestling output. Overall, JPL has offensive tools in all areas of MMA. He’s quick on the feet, dangerous with power and is a very good offensive wrestler. 

But there are a few things I want to keep my eye on. First of which is what path he chooses to take inside the Octagon. I do think he is a better grappler. The striking is solid, but he did look very good from top position regionally and I would like to see him continue to mix that in rather than stick to striking full time. 

But we also have to keep an eye on the weight class he’s in. He started his career as a lightweight and is now competing most recently at 170. I do think that with his frame at 5’11”, I would consider him someone who fits the mold of a 155er and wonder if he will struggle with larger fighters up at this weight class. 

We also saw him get finished in both his pro losses. They are both to solid competition in Spike Carlyle and Jacobi Jones, but still they aren’t losses you want on your record. Although one was a ref’s stoppage, I do worry about his durability, especially if he’s going to continue to strike for longer periods of time. 

At the end of the day, JPL is a very talented offensive fighter with great offensive grappling, solid power on the feet and good footwork, although I worry about his size, durability and fight process. He is still a fighter whom I would like to see a more defined process before trusting him at too high of a clip.

Phil Rowe makes his 9th trip to the UFC Octagon this weekend as someone who has accumulated valuable time inside the cage. The 35 year old welterweight has had some memorable performances and is someone who you can never count out of a fight. He is 11-6 so far in his career and someone who maintains an 100% finish rate through 17 pro fights, with 7 KO wins and 4 submissions. 

That ability to stop a fight on an instant has been shown a few times before, as all four of his UFC victories as well as his DWCS scrap were won via knockout. He is a long, rangy kickboxer sitting at 6’3”, with solid killer instinct and ability to finish fights. None of his UFC wins have come early, and all of them have come in round 2-3 after facing adversity. 

See, although Rowe can knock your head off, he is also a terrible minute winner. All four of his UFC losses come via decision and you could argue that he’s losing a lot of fights before needing a come-from-behind knockout. Ange Loosa, Jason Witt, Orion Cosce… all these lower level fighters are landing takedowns and securing control time before being caught later. 

He can be taken down and controlled, with a 53% takedown defense and most recently allowing Seokhyeon Ko to earn 13 minutes of control and four takedowns against him. Although he can be stuck on the bottom, his grappling is pretty decent with submission grappling experience against Craig Jones, Gordon Ryan and Kody Steele. I mean, he hasn’t BEATEN anyone in submission grappling, but the experience against them and four submissions on his record have to count for something… right? 

On the feet, he does hit hard and has moment winning ability, but he is absorbing 4.12 strikes per minute to 3.5 landed, and is often losing optics before landing that big shot. 

His cardio and grit cannot be discounted though, as he is always in the fight and looking for that late finish. His chin has also held up pretty well as he can fight through adversity, and has not been finished since his pro debut in 2012. Overall, Phil Rowe is a heavy hitting fight finisher who can never be counted out due to his heart, cardio and durability, but his lack of minute winning and decision equity make him a tough fighter to back in the long run. 

This fight is really interesting. Right off the bat, I will say that I think Rowe needs a finish. I’ve never been that high on him and he’s a fighter who is a horrible minute winner and instead relies on his 100% finish rate. That is certainly possible, as I’ve seen JPL slow down and get finished before, and I do think Rowe can get him out of there, especially if JPL decides to strike for longer portions of the fight. 

But JPL has clear minute winning equity in my opinion. Not only are there some striking optics advantages, as I would give the minutes edge to JPL with the in and out footwork, but the grappling is a clear path for him as well. Rowe has been taken down 17 times in the UFC and conceded top control a lot. He struggles to get up from bottom and although he is able to stay safe defensively, he does not possess a style to win decisions. 

So I’m going to lean JPL to get it done with wrestling and minute winning, but I do think KO props are there for Rowe. When he smells blood in the water he is a great fight finisher and will have a large height and durability edge here in my opinion. Can’t pick him to win because I see him stuck on his back for too long here, but a very live underdog, especially for DFS or in the prop market. Give me JPL by decision. 

—

On DraftKings, Lebosnoyani is priced up to 8.8k and I suppose he has merit given the fight is projected to end inside the distance.

I am a bit surprised to see it lined -180 to end ITD though, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if we saw the fight go three full rounds. Rowe has not been finished in four UFC losses, though he’s been hurt.

Lebosnoyani is lined +121 to win ITD and I view him as a boom or bust-ish type of option. I wouldn’t say he’s purely boom or bust, because he can wrestle, and Rowe is an awful defensive wrestler. So there is a world where Lebosnoyani lands multiple takedowns and scores well, and we just saw Rowe give up 106 DK points to Ko in his last fight.

Honestly, you can sell me on the idea of Lebosnoyani being a decent semi-contrarian target this week based on the wrestling alone. He has paths to produce offense. I am simply skeptical that Lebosnoyani will pursue grappling to that degree though and without it, he’s purely boom or bust. 

More importantly, I feel safer with the path to upside of options priced both above and below him.

I don’t expect to roster a ton of Lebosnoyani this week, partially due to price and the strength of the slate as a whole. Maybe it’s a mistake. He can win ITD and he’s still a viable secondary target. But I like some of the grappling ceilings above him, and there are 3-4 clear finishing options priced below him. 

If he ultimately projects to be low owned, Lebosnoyani is firmly in play as someone who can help you be unique while still providing a path to a ceiling.

Rowe is priced at 7.4k and I’m not dying to roster him either. 

I think he’s viable if these two get in a scrap, and it extends. Lebosnoyani can be hurt and Rowe will have a clear size advantage per usual. An eight inch reach advantage too.

You’re basically hoping for a hot start, and then for Lebosnoyani to slow down and Rowe to turn it up, and score a TKO finish. He’s +323 to win ITD which isn’t too bad.

There’s some difficulty with this slate in that there’s plenty of underdog finishing threats. The fighters priced directly above Rowe feel like much better bets to win ITD and score big, though I’m not high on any one of them singularly.

Rowe probably gets squeezed because of it, and I don’t expect him to be popular coming off another ugly loss. He could be viewed as a decent pivot in this range because of it.

Ultimately Rowe carries no floor, and his style is flawed. He isn’t making improvements. At a cheap price and low public ownership, he’s still a viable mix-in given the field won’t be excited to roster him, and his ITD odds still indicate some finishing equity.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lebosnoyani by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Yadier del Valle vs. Jordan Leavitt

Fight Odds: Del Valle -400, Leavitt +330

Odds to end ITD: -250

DraftKings Salaries: Del Valle 9.4k, Leavitt 6.8k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a goofy fight here in the featherweight division between Yadier del Valle and Jordan Leavitt.

Del Valle is a Cuban fighter who is 10-0 professionally. He is 29 years old. He booked his UFC ticket on the Contender Series by winning a pace based decision where he landed over 100 significant strikes and just kind of battered his opponent. Del Valle then followed up that performance with a first round RNC of Connor Matthews in his UFC debut.

His last fight was an infamous first round win against Isaac Dulgarian. If you haven’t heard, Dulgarian was a big favorite in that matchup and there was a huge line move towards del Valle on the day of the fight after potential fight fixing and injury rumors thrown towards Dulgarian. The fight then took place and Dulgarian got finished in round one in a fight that looked suspicious. We still don’t know the outcome of that case but Dulgarian has been suspended and is facing serious allegations. Del Valle simply just showed up and fought though so there were never any allegations against him for wrongdoings.

Anyway, del Valle is a decent fighter. I actually think the best aspect of his game is his pace and volume striking. He is also very physical. He is not the best striker and he actually has some bad defense. Skilled strikers will out slick him. However, del Valle is just a pace pusher and brawler standing out of the southpaw stance. He also seems very tough and has good cardio. So he can really gas pedal his opponents. I don’t think he has a ton of power but he can finish opponents with pace so he does bring an element of danger.

Del Valle is also an alright grappler. He actually has a BJJ black belt and is a brown belt in Judo. I don’t think his takedowns are great but he is a decent back taker and has some submissions in his game. He took the back of Aswell who just had some UFC success. I don’t think he will beat a ton of guys with his grappling in the UFC but he can probably have some offensive moments or have success on the mat when opponents are tired. He is also very physical. Obviously him submitting Dulgarian was impressive but we don’t know how real that fight was.

Del Valle’s takedown defense looks a bit suspect at times. It doesn’t look horrible but I have seen him taken down and he loves jumping guillotines. He again is very physical though. He has a decent guillotine but against good fighters he will likely just end up losing position and be on his back. He also can be controlled on the mat. I do think he has a good guard so it is going to be hard to dominate him with ground-and-pound or advance position against him. However, he can be controlled which isn’t good. I still think his physicality and defensive grappling are okay though.

Del Valle will be taking on Jordan Leavitt. Leavitt is pretty limited as a fighter, and he is essentially just a grappler. He is 12-3 professionally and most of his wins have come by ground finishes, and he has a few wrestling based decisions as well. His game is to essentially look for takedowns and get his top game BJJ going, and look for submissions. He doesn’t really have striking. When he is on the feet, he pretty much is just looking to evade strikes and eventually look for opportunities to get the fight to the mat. He is a liability on the feet.

I don’t think Leavitt is a bad grappler and he can wreck weak grapplers. However, he isn’t the best grappler and he lacks physicality. Furthermore, although they are both good fighters, he has been submitted twice in the UFC against Chase Hooper and Paddy Pimblett. It is not a great sign when you are a grappler and are consistently getting submitted. So it just showed that Leavitt is limited to the types of guys he can grapple.

As far as this matchup goes, del Valle has some pretty clear advantages. On the feet, del Valle is better and more physical, and just more violent. If the fight stays there, Del Valle will likely just beat him up and probably finish Leavitt.

I do think Leavitt could maybe land some takedowns here. The issue is Leavitt isn’t physical and del Valle is. So del Valle can probably give Leavitt issues.

Furthermore, even if Leavitt gets del Valle down, I think del Valle is a better submission grappler. I would kind of be surprised if Leavitt can submit del Valle. I actually think del Valle is more likely to win by submission here. I could easily see del Valle using physicality to sprawl out and taking Leavitt’s back. I also trust del Valle more in the grappling exchanges as the fight extends and Leavitt breaks to the physicality and strength.

So overall I think del Valle should be alright here. This is a tough matchup for Leavitt.

—

On DraftKings, this is one of a couple of high priced matchups that gives me mixed feelings.

I’m not particularly high on Leavitt and stylistically he has issues. I wouldn’t be surprised if del Valle easily outstruck him, or took him down or subbed him. Del Valle is -167 to win ITD which is one of the better lines on the slate.

Del Valle is also coming off two 100 point scores in a row, so at 9.4k, by all means, play him if you like him.

My two concerns are as follows 1) Is he getting too much hype here based on a fraudulent fight, and 2) Leavitt is annoyingly good at limiting exchanges.

Regarding No. 1, it’s a bit scary that most of us were high on Dulgarian to beat del Valle, in part because of Dulgarian’s strengths, but in part because del Valle can be taken down. The only thing Leavitt will want to do is wrestle, so if the last fight was truly fraudulent, then perhaps del Valle is being overrated here at -400 to win.

Regarding No. 2, Leavitt kind of sucks but is only absorbing 1.7 strikes per minute. He’s been submitted twice in the UFC and only allowed 88 and 95 DK points. It makes me nervous that even if del Valle has finishing or domination upside, Leavitt can slow the fight down enough to push del Valle below his ceiling.

There’s not one right or wrong answer here, but I lean slightly toward some cheaper fighters in this range who I think have higher top end ceilings due to the matchup. I still like del Valle somewhat, I think he’s fairly safe to win and I think he’s a decent pivot off Judice as well for $300 in savings. I’m not sold he smashes the rest of this range, even with a finish though, and that may hold me back more than the public.

Leavitt is priced at 6.8k and I only have mild interest.

His game is just so limited, and he’s a big dog, and del Valle has looked good in the UFC so there’s no reason to be excited here. However, Leavitt is OK as a grappler and grappling obvious scores well on DK.

We have targeted against del Valle in the past due to grappling questions so I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Leavitt won the first round, or landed 1-2 takedowns. There’s a tiny bit of submission equity in play too even though he’s only +656 to win ITD.

I don’t plan on rostering much Leavitt but for 6.8k, I could get behind a small percentage of shares.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Del Valle by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Julianna Miller vs. Carli Judice

Fight Odds: Judice -750, Miller +550

Odds to end ITD: -210

DraftKings Salaries: Judice 9.7k, Miller 6.5k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night kicks off with a clash of flyweights, as the surging Carli Judice takes on former TUF winner Juliana Miller. Let’s dive in.

Carli Judice has garnered a ton of attention and fandom in her short UFC stint so far. Judice is working off back-to-back finish wins over Nicolle Caliari and Yuneisy Duben in 2025. Although she started her UFC career slowly with two losses, they were Fight of the Night performances where she landed 168 and 169 significant strikes in both bouts against solid competition. 

Now, “Crispy” looks to make it three in a row here and continue that rise towards the top 15. That nickname is truly fitting for Judice, as her striking really is crisp. She is a pure boxer, which is typically a detriment to a fighter as that makes you one-dimensional. But let me tell you, she is a damn good boxer. She averages 10.73 strikes landed per minute in four UFC appearances. That is a record breaking number. 

In fact, if we want to dive into it, Joshua Van is listed as having the most strikes landed per minute in the UFC at 8.84 landed per minute. The only reason why Judice isn’t listed above, is due to the list only tracking fighters with 5 or more fights with the organization. 

With that volume, she does have good accuracy and technique. She hits hard, sets up her shots well and has a 100% KO rate so far in her pro career. That amount of power and volume is unparalleled at this weight class, and you combine that with a solid 5’7 frame, she looks to be a true issue in this division.

Now, I have been pretty high on Judice in this breakdown and rightfully so, as she is looking like one of the most promising prospects in this division. But the truth is she is still green. She’s only 7 pro fights, is 2-2 against fighters with a winning record and so far her wins have been against some low level competition (Duben currently sits at #2 on Gordo’s worst UFC fighters rankings). 

We have seen her taken down in both her losses and although the striking is elite, the ground game is still a large question mark in her game. Aside from that, I do think she is improving. She made her pro debut in October of 2022 and is still learning inside the Octagon. That lack of experience can cost her optics and minutes against higher level fighters. However, she will continue to be a fighter on the rise with incredible boxing, power, finishing instincts, cardio and durability, despite the question marks we have about her level of competition and ground game. 

Juliana “Killer” Miller has had a bit of a tougher run in the UFC so far. After looking pretty ferocious in her TUF win in 2022, she has gone 1-2 and looked a bit slower compared to the level of competition she’s facing. The truth is, Miller was never the most technical fighter. But it was her aggressive and psychopathic fighting style that was her best attribute inside the Octagon. 

Miller refused to back down and fought like a meth head looking for one last hit, embodying the style of someone you wouldn’t want to run into in a dark alley. In her first two true UFC bouts, that style cost her, as she was outpointed by a far more technical Veronica Hardy and pieced up by a quicker and harder hitting Luana Santos. 

Miller does her best work when she is able to drag people into dark waters and look to maul them on the mat. If she cannot do that, she is slower on the feet, extremely hittable and she herself can be stuck on bottom. We did see a newer version of Miller last time as she took a couple years off before fighting Petrovic. There, she was able to have more wrestling success, landing 3 takedowns and racking up over 8 minutes of control time. 

That was actually her first ever decision win. She had all of her previous wins coming by finish, including two submission wins. Her grappling is actually pretty good, with submission grappling experience and wins over the highly touted Fatima Kline and Bia Mesquita in grappling matches. However, she isn’t always able to get the fight down to the mat with a 38% takedown accuracy and she herself is only defending takedowns at 44%. 

Additionally, it is still very evident that Miller lacks any defensive mindset on the feet and that is only proven in the numbers as she is currently defending strikes at a 36% clip. With that lack of defence, poor optics and a pretty one-dimensional path on the mat, I do think Miller can be beaten and is someone who we hope continues to learn in that time away from the Octagon. 

The grappling isn’t bad, but she hasn’t shown the ability to win minutes consistently and is dependent on ground success or her opponent tiring out. So, I know the “Killer” version is still in there. I’ll stick by the fact that I think she’s not someone who I’d want to run into on the street. But when it comes to a technical MMA bout, she is a poor defensive fighter who is purely dependent on grappling success or out-working her opponent down the stretch. Although that is (unfortunately) sometimes all it takes at this WMMA level, I would still like to see her shore up her wrestling offense or minute winning ability before trusting her at too high of a clip.

I do think this is an interesting fight. Line wise, I do think it’s starting to get wide, as Judice is still relatively green in MMA and has yet to scramble anyone with the ground skillset Miller has. I mean, Miller does make mistakes, but she’s feisty and with grappling wins over Mesquita and Kline, we know she is more than competent down there. 

But let’s be honest here, Judice is going to destroy her on the feet. It will be absolutely one way traffic in the striking and if Miller has any success, I’d be very surprised. It’s someone with a 100% KO rate who averages 10.73 strikes per minute against someone who defends strikes at a 36% clip. The numbers alone tell you this story, but the optics of the power, technicality and volume will only reinforce the mismatch on the feet. 

It then comes down to Miller having any ground success and I just can’t see it happening too often. Like I said, Judice is green, she can be caught in transition. But she is a big athlete and someone who I think can out-physical Miller here, keeping this upright. Miller has out-cardio’d people before, but Judice’s cardio is just as good and I think she can keep this upright and continue to light up a defensively irresponsible Miller on the feet. Line might be wide in the grappling, but the striking should be one way traffic and I expect Judice’s hype to grow. Give me another knockout win for Judice here. 

—

On DraftKings, Judice is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.7k but she will rate out as the safest option on the slate as well.

Judice is pushing -800 to win, and given her insane volume striking abilities + her knockdown rate, she’s justifiable at this price. Especially against an opponent like Miller who has crumpled to pressure before.

However, I don’t really view Judice as a standout prospect. I don’t think she’s a real power threat. Yes her wins have come by KO but they’ve come against extremely low levels of competition. I am much more excited by her willingness to throw, than I am by her inherent power.

So with that said, I struggle a little bit with rating this one on DraftKings. My gut feeling is actually to get off Judice. She is not likely to have extended wrestling success and there are plenty of ways to underperform if you rely on volume.

The fighters priced below Judice all arguably have higher ceilings by default, as they will grapple to victory. So if Hernandez and Edwards crush for example, I have a hard time seeing Judice also being optimal at 9.7k.

The counter argument is that Judice lands so much volume that maybe she does have an elite ceiling. If you get 60 sig. strikes and a first round KO, that’s 120+ DK points. Or 100 sig. strikes + second round KO, or 140 sig. strikes + a third round KO. That’s the type of performance we’re shooting for here and I do think it’s possible.

I also think 140 sig. strikes and a decision is very much on the table. Miller won’t force striking engagements. Miller only has one career loss by KO. Miller is the better grappler. 140 sig. strikes in a decision is 86 DK points and a bust at 9.7k.

People freaking love Judice in this matchup though and she’s -168 to win ITD which is one of the best finishing props on the entire slate. I’d be a little surprised by a first-round stoppage but I can also see a mid-round TKO finish pretty easily.

Likely, I’ll consider paying up for Judice in cash games for her safety. In smaller fields Judice is a stronger play. In large fields, especially if she has ownership tied into this price, I’m not sure I can justify much exposure and I’d probably rather target the bulk of the grapplers for $500+ in savings.

Miller is priced at 6.5k and I’m not super interested in her. You’re betting on takedowns and a sub most likely.

Miller is a sneaky good submission grappler and Judice has been taken down by 3/4 opponents. It’s not impossible in the low levels of WMMA. But the striking gap is so wide and I don’t think Miller is a particularly strong wrestler.

At +550 to win, with a +1033 ITD line, it’s hard to justify much or any exposure to Miller and she’d be a fine target to cross off, especially with a limited portfolio. She’s maybe worth a couple of shares in larger fields with a large portfolio, for grappling upside and leverage. I don’t expect her to win though.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Judice by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)