UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. (10/5/24)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

MAIN CARD

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Fight Odds: Pereira -486, Rountree +365

Odds to Finish: -1000

DraftKings Salaries: Pereira 9.6k, Rountree 6.6k

Weight Class: 205

The UFC’s golden boy, Alex Pereira is back in action yet again as he’ll take on surprising contender Khalil Rountree Jr. in Salt Lake City for the light heavyweight championship.

Pereira has continued to prove his worth, stepping into the Octagon time and time again, and largely ending the night with his hand raised and his opponent unconscious in front of him.

Most recently, Pereira defended his title against Jiri Prochazka for the second time, hurting Prochazka badly at the end of round one and immediately kicking him in the head again in round two.

There’s not much new information for me to dissect on Pereira, and my stance is largely the same as it has been. He’s an elite pedigree kickboxer, and an extremely dangerous knockout threat. I have mild volume concerns and mild cardio concerns in a 25-minute affair. I also have moderate concerns about his defensive grappling, and mild/moderate concerns about his durability.

Those concerns have definitely kept me off of him in spots, but this isn’t the division where those weaknesses get exposed. There simply aren’t many wrestlers who will face him, and Magomed Ankalaev, the one obvious opponent who wrestles, is being shunned by the UFC despite being the clear next-in-line.

There’s also plenty of variance in this division, and that will definitely put a threat to Pereira for the time being. He can be hit, hurt, and put out. He can also strike competitively with many, for example losing an early round to Prochazka in their first matchup, while his biggest separating moments will continue to come with damage.

At the same time, he’s the most technical striker and arguably the most effective/threatening, and he’d have a realistic shot of becoming the HW champion as well if he decided to move up.

Now he’ll take on Khalil Rountree Jr. who is a much better story than a contender. He was 300+ lbs. overweight and bullied as a kid, and moved into MMA to get in shape. 

He fought on TUF and lost in the finals, largely due to defensive wrestling. He was extremely green, and still is to a degree, but that was back in 2016 (wow).

He’s since gone 9-5 which is very respectable, and he’s on a five-fight win streak which is also enough to qualify him to be worthy of a shot. I mean, I’d love to see Rountree as the champion. He seems like a good, humble dude and he’s developed quite a bit over the years. It’s just a super tough task.

Rountree, as it stands, is a solid muay-thai striker. He is willing to bang, and he has power in his hands. Honestly that is the extent of it though.

Rountree lands 3.84 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.18 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate which isn’t great. Purely at distance, he’s at a -0.4 rate per minute which is’t ideal.

His defensive wrestling is an issue too, but I don’t expect it to play a role here. I actually think Pereira could probably take him down, though who knows what would happen on the mat. I think it’s highly likely both guys come in with zero thought of wrestling though.

Anyways, Rountree is decent. In the pocket he can throw combinations, and his KD rate is actually impressive at 13:1. So he’s not getting dropped or knocked out often.

He’s also just not as good as Pereira. He’s smaller than Pereira, and Pereira very likely hits harder. The technical gaps will be pretty damn hard for Rountree to get past, so his best hope is just to eat whatever Pereira throws, and hope to damage him in return.

I do think Rountree can do it. He could win. There’s an unfathomable amount of variance in striking exchanges. He could also strike competitively in rounds. While he’ll be at a disadvantage, Pereira has occasionally lost rounds. Rountree kicks the legs and does the basics OK.

I’d be very surprised though. In his last six fights, Rountree has been outstruck 120 to 85 by Dustin Jacoby, and 102 to 49 by Marcin Prachnio. It just seems unlikely that he can keep up with Pereira for 25 minutes and I don’t know what other recourse he has than to hurt him.

While that outcome is possible, it feels much more likely that Pereira will be the one dishing out damage. I do think size and physicality will play a factor here and Rountree has still been stopped from strikes by guys like Johnny Walker and Ion Cutelaba.

I’ll take Pereira to win by early KO again, though it’s hard not to root for the underdog moment.

—

On DraftKings, Pereira is one of the most expensive fighters on the board at 9.6k, which is no surprise.

The difficulty in assessing this one is that his floor is so strong in a win, and his likelihood to reach 100 points is very strong. Pereira is -486 to win and -350 to win ITD.

The most likely outcome for sure is an early Pereira KO, and obviously if that happens he can compete for the optimal lineup. There are only 12 fights on this card (maybe less by fight day), as opposed to last week’s huge 14-fight slate, so there are less options to choose from in total.

Conversely, this also feels like a very strong spot to come in light on Pereira (in theory).

Despite the safety and likelihood to score 100, Pereira does not have an elite top-end ceiling because he’s a mid-volume striker who doesn’t grapple. He’s won by KO six times in the UFC and he’s only reached 100 points in three of those. He also scored 98, 92 and 87 in KO wins.

Even in his last fight, it took two knockdowns to get to 107 on Prochazka. There are certainly paths to a great performance, but a DK result between 100 and 110.

On a 12-fight slate at 9.6k, that is far from an optimal guarantee. Even his top-end ceiling which he’s scored 110 twice would be questionable. Kayla Harrison is fighting too and priced above, and she already scored 113 in her lone win.

Perhaps 110 could get him to the opto, or less, depending on how the slate shakes out, but it definitely feels like a risk at 9.6k. Not only do you need an early KO, but you need the type of early KO that results in 110ish, which Pereira has failed to achieve a few times.

Given the price, and his expected popularity, I don’t think he’s a must-roster. I’d prefer him in smaller formats where hitting the optimal is less necessary, but in large-fields, I do think there’s plenty of viability to going underweight.

Rountree at 6.6k is viable in theory but it’s hard to love him.

He’s +365 to win and +380 to win ITD, and those feel pretty correct. If he loses, the chances of him being a worthwhile fantasy option are slim.

It’s reasonable to sprinkle him in near the field average in a large portfolio, given the leverage, upside and savings on Rountree. But it’s difficult to justify more than that, and I’d much prefer to pay up for more win equity personally.

Outside of a dart here or there, I won’t have any real investment in Rountree this weekend.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pereira by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena

Fight Odds: Pennington -169, Pena +145

Odds to Finish: +190

DraftKings Salaries: Pennington 8.4k, Pena 7.8k

Weight Class: 135

The women’s bantamweight division is quite literally desperate for new blood, which will likely come in the form of Kayla Harrison, who is also fighting on this card. For now, Raquel Pennington holds the strap and she’ll aim to defend her title against another veteran in Julianna Pena.

Pennington recently won the vacant title after Amanda Nunes retired, beating Mayra Bueno Silva by decision in January.

She’s a very well-rounded fighter, though she’s pretty severely limited as far as top-end athleticism or finishing capability.

Pennington is a decent boxer, and lands 4.14 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.9 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. It’s adequate. She’s somewhat tight with her strikes, but her volume is a little bit inconsistent and she doesn’t really have knockout power.

As a wrestler, Pennington lands 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes, while defending at 63 percent. She’s not great, but she’s competent.

She was fighting a more dangerous sub grappler in Bueno Silva last time out who had her back multiple times, and even had a deep RNC in at one point. Pennington just casually fought out of it and kept pursuing control, which more so showcases her best attribute, which is toughness.

Pennington is super tough, and she has great cardio. I don’t necessarily think her skills are enough to separate and easily beat her competition, nor does she have much finishing ability. But she can hang around everywhere and is reasonably competent, with good hardware.

Julianna Pena is getting an undeserved shot at the title though it’s incredibly hard to fake any actual interest in this division currently.

Pena shockingly beat Amanda Nunes to win the belt in 2021, but got destroyed in the rematch in 2022. That was her last fight to date.

Pena is pretty annoying in real life and that’s kind of how her fighting style is as well. She’s fairly aggressive, and somewhat dangerous, but there’s not a whole lot of process to her game and I find her to be pretty ineffective.

Pena is a very mediocre striker, and only lands 3.16 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.30 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate. She has no career knockdowns, but she was able to gas Nunes out by round two with basic pressure and spamming offense.

It’s just tough to find any confidence in Pena. I’ve never liked the camp she comes from and I don’t consider her very technical. She has a slight positive differential at distance of +0.44, but only 29 percent of her fights take place at distance and her career sig. strike totals are low.

As a grappler, Pena is a somewhat dangerous submission grappler. She can take the back, and threaten from guard. She’s also found a way to get on top of most opponents, where she averages 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes.

The problem is she doesn’t have strong control, and she also defends takedowns at a super poor 23 percent rate. Basically anyone who wants her down can take her down, which is a hard factor for me to overlook historically.

I’d say that’s the primary reason why Pennington is favored here. Not only is Pennington fine, and competent as a striker, but she should be the better control wrestler and is more likely to sustain top position.

However, I don’t know if Pennington can do a whole lot on top. She may even put herself in danger. Like it or not, Bueno Silva did threaten her a couple times and it’s reasonable to think Pena can too. I would bet on Pennington surviving, but you never know.

I’d also feel more confident in Pennington if she had better historic wrestling metrics, while technically, she’s only landed one takedown in her last 65 minutes of cage time.. I’d expect a higher rate here but it’s hard to project it with confidence.

I still think Pennington is a superior minutes winner. She’s a more effective boxer, and a better control wrestler. Her path to victory is largely based on grinding out a win though, clinching, control, basic boxing. I don’t think she finishes Pena at a high rate unless Pena quits on the mat at some point.

Pena doesn’t feel likely to win the minutes, but she has more flash in her game. She’s more likely to threaten for subs early, and it’s possible both are low volume enough on the feet that rounds are simply competitive.

This isn’t a fight I’m super confident in – I will pick Pennington but her talent ceiling is quite capped. Pena has a terrible process but she can turn the tide at any moment and has enough tools to hang in there throughout the whole fight, which will keep her live.

—

On DraftKings, the five-round status of this matchup will absolutely put both sides in play.

Pennington is coming off a somewhat boring decision that scored her 145 DK points, and now at 8.4k, I expect her to be popular. 

While I don’t love her finishing upside, which is also backed by her ITD odds of +370, she doesn’t need a finish to contend for the optimal. Similar to what I noted with Shevchenko/Grasso, Pennington is getting a lot of non-sig. strikes which add up over 25 minutes. For reference, she was credited with 131 non-sig. strikes against Bueno Silva which is an additional 26.2 DK points.

In this particular matchups, there’s a very good chance it goes to the ground as noted by Pena’s lack of distance time. So in a win, I think it’s very likely there is clinch control/takedowns/ground control mixed in which should give Pennington a very high floor.

Without TDs, there could be some concern. She may not smash in terms of sig. strikes, and projecting her for only a couple takedowns is realistic. Even still, 100 sig. strikes over 25 minutes, two takedowns, some control and non-sig. strikes is probably enough to get her to 100 DK points.

Ultimately, it’s why Pennington is a very strong play. You could actually argue she’s the best play of any of the four five-round options, including Pereira.

I don’t expect to be incredibly overweight to the field, but I will likely have a lot of exposure to this matchup, and I will lean toward Pennington.

Pena at 7.8k is viable as well. I actually expect her to be reasonably popular considering her five-round status and price tag.

She has shown upside in the past too, scoring 110 over Nunes in that win. 

I like Pena less, but she doesn’t rate out much worse than Pennington. Her ITD line is actually the same at +370, and she’s only +145 to win.

A win for her may not come with tons of volume, but there will likely be grappling involved, which could be takedowns, reversals, control, ground strikes and a sub. The matchup is competitive enough that I would feel the need to have a mild-moderate investment in Pena, even if I was leaning toward Pennington due to matchup analysis.

It’s a little gross that this fight is so important but I think both sides have a very strong floor/ceiling combination in a win, even if it’s a decision. And with mid-range prices, it makes sense to invest pretty heavily overall.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pennington by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista

Fight Odds: Bautista -136, Aldo +119

Odds to Finish: +215

DraftKings Salaries: Bautista 8.5k, Aldo 7.7k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

It was awesome to see Jose Aldo come out of retirement and beat a young gun in Jonathan Martinez earlier this year, and he’ll aim to do the same on Saturday against Mario Bautista. 

Aldo was an underdog in that fight and looked great. He outlanded Martinez 77-52 in significant strikes and landed the biggest shots throughout.

Aldo is a great fighter. However, I have always been a little lower on him than the MMA betting market simply because he doesn’t always produce a ton of offense. He doesn’t land many takedowns. He only lands 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Furthermore, Aldo only lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.73 in return. So like I said, he doesn’t land a ton of offense which always makes me nervous as it is an unnecessary way to lose rounds. I mean the guy lost a split decision to Marlon Moraes who lands one strike per 100 years. So I think it is a reasonable concern that I have.

Aldo still has some elite parts of his game though. As a striker, he is super technical and dangerous. He has legitimate power. Two of his last five wins have come by knockout and he recently knocked down Rob Font twice. He also showed his power vs Martinez and really shut Martinez down on the feet with his technicality and power. So he is extremely dangerous and I respect his power.

Aldo also has great defense. He defends takedowns at 91 percent and his first layer TDD is legendary. He is the only man in the UFC who has faced Merab and not surrendered a takedown. His TDD is seriously elite.

Aldo also defends strikes at 60 percent. So even though he is not always landing offense, he doesn’t absorb a ton either, and he is always in the running to win his fights. He generally gets striking fights (where he thrives) as well because his TDD is so good.

I still do have a couple of other concerns with Aldo though. First, he is getting older so a decline is likely coming soon. He has looked good lately so perhaps it will be another couple of years. However, a random decline is possible. Second, he sometimes can slow down in fights. His cardio has held up in recent fights, and I thought he looked quite impressive against Jonathan Martinez, but I don’t totally trust his cardio. 

Finally, I know Aldo has good TDD but when he is actually taken down, he surrenders a lot of GNP. Max and Yan truly beat the breaks off of him on the mat, and I do think it is a weakness of his game that gets overlooked.

Aldo will be taking on Mario Bautista who is coming off a big win against Ricky Simon. Bautista is a decent fighter. He is definitely UFC level and sneakily has won six straight fights.

Capable of fighting out of both stances, Bautista is kind of a freestyle fighter. He will strike a bit and grapple a bit. He has really good cardio which is probably his greatest strength.

Bautista is a competent striker. He lands 5.69 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.99 in return. I don’t think Bautista is particularly skilled on the feet, but he is decent and generally puts on a high pace. He landed 129 significant strikes against Jin Soo Son in three rounds which was impressive.

Bautista has had other fights like against Miles Johns where he fought at a much lower pace. However, I generally expect Bautista to fight with a pretty high work rate. He can also clinch up, and he is good at mixing in elbows in the clinch. He did this a lot in his fight against Jay Perrin.

Bautista is also a decent grappler. Bautista lands 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of landing takedowns and riding position against weak grapplers. I don’t consider him a great offensive wrestler though and decent scramblers should avoid being taken down or controlled by him. He is skilled though. He has submitted a few opponents in the UFC. Bautista defends takedowns at 62 percent which is decent and he scrambles up pretty well when taken down.

I do want to point out though that Bautista has never even come close to beating a striker like Aldo. Bautista has good striking numbers but he has beaten Simon, Blackshear, Cannetti, Lopez, Kelleher, Perrin, Johns, and Son. None of those guys are good strikers or even that good in general. Bautista was actually knocked out by Trevin Jones too.

So honestly I am kind of leaning Aldo in this matchup. I think this will stay on the feet as Aldo doesn’t wrestle much, and he has elite tdd. I doubt Bautista can get Aldo down.

On the feet, sure Bautista has a volume edge but it is hard to just land empty volume on Aldo. Martinez had a theoretical volume edge on Aldo too and got obliterated. I honestly think Aldo is just better technically than Bautista and has more power and more proven defense. Bautista only defends strikes at 53 percent and only has one knockout / knockdown in the UFC.

Look, I am not bulletproof confident here. However, I see no reason to line Bautista -175 against Aldo in a fight likely to stay on the feet especially after Aldo’s last performance against Martinez. Sure, I can’t be super confident in Aldo as the man lost a striking decision to Marlon Moraes of all people. However, I think this line is off and we may get a repeat of the Martinez fight where Aldo was a similarly lined underdog.

—

On DraftKings, I’ve largely avoided Aldo fights in recent years because he slows the pace down and neutralizes grappling exchanges.

He’s coming off an impressive underdog win, but that win only scored 74 points, which is clearly a trend as his other recent three-round decisions have scored 76 and 60.

Aldo doesn’t really have any grappling equity and he’s only +500 to win ITD, so he just won’t rate out well. He is priced at 7.7k and still viable for win equity purposes, but there’s a strong chance he fails to reach a ceiling.

On this slate, I don’t hate him, but I also don’t love him. The majority of other dogs have superior upside, so I’d rather take chances elsewhere.

Mixing Aldo in for pure win equity purposes, hoping he can land a big shot and score a KD/TKO is still viable, and he could contend for the optimal in a scenario where few or no other dogs win.

Bautista at 8.5k doesn’t interest me too much either.

I like him as a fighter and I’ve backed him a bunch in the past. It’s just tough to project him for wrestling or finishing success. He’s +340 to win ITD which isn’t horrible but it’s not a great number for his DK price.

I also don’t think the volume will be there, and I’d project something closer to 70 strikes landed in 15 minutes, rather than the 100+ which we’ve seen from Bautista recently. It’s just not enough to reach a ceiling.

Again, you’re largely hoping he hurts Aldo. It’s not impossible but he is far from a priority and I will likely come in light on Bautista this weekend.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aldo by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Ketlen Vieira vs. Kayla Harrison

Fight Odds: Harrison -1079, Vieira +673

Odds to Finish: +100

DraftKings Salaries: Harrison 9.8k, Vieira 6.4k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I am glad that Kayla Harrison came over from PFL to the UFC and brought new life into the stagnant women’s bantamweight division. She made her debut at UFC 300 and absolutely dominated Holly Holm, finishing her on the mat in the second round.

In case you don’t know a ton about Harrison’s background, she is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo, winning in 2012 and 2016.

Harrison then made a transition into MMA after her Judo career ended in 2018. She generally only competed in PFL where she fought a lot of poor competition, but she also beat some decent fighters as well including Larissa Pacheco and Aspen Ladd.

Harrison is 17-1 professionally and won the PFL championship several times. She generally fought in the lightweight division and only had one featherweight fight. Her fight vs Holm was at bantamweight and I was surprised how good she looked physically and energetically. She looked great vs Holm honestly.

As you would expect, Harrison’s grappling is her bread and butter as she uses her Judo skills in fights. I have been very vocal that Judo is an inferior grappling art to wrestling in the past, as many of the takedowns in Judo are upper body based which are less effective against good wrestlers. Luckily for Harrison, WMMA is just full of terrible wrestlers so Harrison has been able to dominate women with her Judo.

I do consider Harrison’s takedowns pretty strong. She can also occasionally land decent double legs as well. I consider her top game good, and she is a fine submission grappler as well. She can also land ground and pound in top position.

I honestly think the best part of Harrison’s game is her physicality. She is just such a muscular and strong woman. When you combine that with her grappling game, she is simply going to win a ton of fights. She also has pretty solid grappling cardio. I still am just shocked at how well her debut went against Holm at bantamweight. I honestly didn’t know if she could make the weight and be herself. She is going to be so much more physical than almost everyone at this weight class.

Harrison’s striking is pretty basic and not great. It isn’t the worst thing I have seen as she is an athletic woman. However, I generally think she needs to grapple to win fights consistently in the UFC.

Harrison will be taking on UFC veteran Ketlen Vieira. Vieira is a weird fighter in my mind. I don’t particularly think she is good, and I don’t personally enjoy watching her fight. However, WMMA and 135 in particular is just so bad that Vieira being somewhat well-rounded and physical makes her a borderline top contender by default lol.

Vieira comes from a Judo background and she is a competent grappler. She lands 1.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts around three takedowns per fight. She is capable of landing takedowns and riding top position, and is somewhat heavy in top position. As with most Judo players, Vieira is most threatening with her takedowns in the clinch, and she can find those split seconds to explode when her opponents aren’t quite ready or aware that they are out of position.

Vieira generally defends takedowns very well and has a 92 percent TDD rate which is stellar. I have seen her on her back once or twice and honestly she didn’t look great, which could be a very bad thing going against Harrison.

Vieira has actually struck a lot lately, and I do think her boxing has improved. She has good timing on the inside with her boxing combinations, and she definitely showed some skills in her win against Holly Holm.

I still just don’t fully trust Vieira on the feet though. She is still only landing 3.04 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 3.92 in return. She only defends strikes at 51 percent. Those are just hard metrics to be confident in. I do think Vieira hits above-average from a strike per strike basis though, so the effectiveness of her strikes swing the judges to her favor at times. So she will likely outperform her striking metrics in general. She also has decent head strike metrics which helps her out.

As far as this matchup goes, I still have to go with Harrison. Harrison is just such a powerful grappler and there are only a couple of women in the world who can stop it.

Vieira does defend takedowns at 92 percent so if she does stuff some takedowns, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. On the feet, Vieira could potentially win as she is a more experienced striker than Harrison. I still think the striking would be somewhat competitive though. I doubt Vieira can land any takedowns herself.

I still just hate the tape of Vieira on her back. She may defend a takedown or two, but she better defend them all because one takedown surrendered is probably a big round for Harrison and maybe even a finish. Also, I know Vieira has good tdd from a metric standpoint, but Harrison is by far the best takedown artist she has fought and by a wide margin.

So yea I am just going to pick Harrison to at least land a few takedowns which should be the difference in the fight.

—

On DraftKings, Harrison is extremely expensive at 9.8k which definitely puts a wrinkle in this slate.

I get it, she is a huge favorite at -1079 but having her priced $200 above the next most expensive fighter feels like a bit much..

For that reason alone, she is tough to prioritize. You just may not be able to afford her. You may want to play Alex Pereira instead, or spread your exposure out. There’s a decent chance that (like Pereira) even in a dominant win, Harrison simply misses the optimal due to pricing/construction.

There’s also risk in her profile in the sense that she’s an extremely boom or bust grappler. We aren’t getting much striking volume, and actually this fight is -130 to go the distance.

Comparatively, Harrison’s +100 ITD line is really poor versus others on the slate and others at this past price tag.

Furthermore, Vieira is defending takedowns at 92 percent and has a background in Judo, with a decent submission game. Harrison should be better than her but it’s not as if she’s facing an opponent with no grappling experience.

Still, what does a win for Harrison look like? Takedowns, dominant control, and ground strikes, with a potential finish on top of that. She still projects to score very well in a win.

Harrison put 113 in her UFC debut in a very early 2nd round finish, and I still think her ceiling is elite. Watching her rain down elbows from top position is awesome, and that gives her plenty of DK upside. I do also think she can land takedowns.

It’s just weird because we haven’t seen Vieira on her back much. She looked bad against McMann in 2017 and got mounted there, but that was seven years ago. Harrison is just so good and physical though, I wouldn’t be shocked if she smashed through Vieira.

My lean is always to play grapplers on DK for their top-end ceiling, so I still like Harrison a lot if you can afford her. She has multiple paths to scoring, and may not even need a finish to hit a ceiling. Her ceiling is also much higher than the standard boom or bust striker.

I also probably won’t be extremely heavy here just due to the pricing dynamics, but Harrison rates out as an elite option based on metrics and fighting style, and there’s a very decent chance she puts up one of the top scores on the slate overall.

Vieira at 6.4k is not a great option, but perhaps she is viable. Harrison has lost in PFL  before, and Harrison is not a great striker. Vieira may have paths to victory if she can just defend some takedowns early.

She’s 6.4k, won’t be owned much, and will carry lots of leverage against Harrison. Her floor is also non-existent, and her metrics are awful at +673 to win and +1500 ITD. A win for her is probably a gross, striking based decision.

So I still don’t think I’ll play much or any Vieira. I don’t think she’s dramatically worse than the other punts on this slate, and potentially she’s even better/safer with a real path to win. But it’s not one that should score well and most likely, she’ll get crushed, so with a limited portfolio it’s fine to pass on Vieira completely.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Harrison by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland

Fight Odds: Holland -144, Dolidze +125

Odds to Finish: +145

DraftKings Salaries: Holland 8.3k, Dolidze 7.9k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Roman Dolidze began his UFC run at 205 lbs in his first couple fights, but spent the bulk of his run at 185 lbs before taking his last fight at 205 lbs against Anthony Smith where he’s coming off a decision win. He’s now dropping back down to his traditional weight class of 185 lbs – he’s 7-3 in the UFC and 13-3 as a pro. Kevin Holland’s also a guy who’s bounced around weight classes through his UFC run, and he will be taking his 2nd consecutive fight up at 185 lbs – he’s 13-8 in the UFC and 26-11 as a pro.

The striking component:

Dolidze’s traditionally been a lower volume power puncher, finishing seven of his 13 pro wins via strikes.       

Output wise, he lands 3.1 SLpM at 42% — there’s been a lot of grinding in his fights though which needs to be noted but even at space, he’s still not blowing the doors off guys from a volume perspective – only 3.9 distance strikes/minute.    

I do partially attribute his lower volume nature to the fact that guys often respect his power and want to be more non-committal against him because they know he can put them out – coupled with certain stylistic matchups.  In that same regard, he doesn’t get hit a ton as a result – 3.4 SApM at 50%.  But he does try to coax guys to get into the firefight with him.       

Despite his numbers though, the first guy he fought who had some decent technical boxing acumen in Giles did hit him cleanly (landed at 47% on Dolidze), and even buckled him pretty good in the 3rd round and stung him in the 2nd.  It’s important to note that he’s slowed in most extended affairs he’s had.     

He was able to clock Daukaus early so it’s another fight where we didn’t get many distance questions answered, but we can’t take anything away from Dolidze there. Point being though, if he doesn’t clip him early, in many scenarios we probably see a very different fight transpire.   He was also able to bonk Phil Hawes who we know has durability issues.   

He got out volumed at distance 43 to 12 by Hermansson, losing the 1st round unanimously.  However, he fought Vettori a lot more competitively than I anticipated and did take the 1st round, but ultimately dropped the last two and got out landed at distance 100-67. 

He got hurt significantly early by Imavov and was out landed at distance 67-32. Most recently, he out landed Smith 65 to 51 at distance in what was a ho hum type of affair outside of a bigger moment from Dolidze in round twp.  

Overall, opponents have to respect the power that is coming back their way from Dolidze, but it’s still difficult to project him to win extended, clean minutes standing in relation to where he currently sits in the divisional rankings.

Holland’s a fun guy to watch on the feet and is very dynamic.   He stands 6’3” and has an 81” reach which makes him a lengthy guy, not only at 170 but 185 as well.        

He’ll fight out of a karate like side stance (kung fu background), is light on the feet and works a blitz striking style.  Holland will also use low legs and the oblique kick (side kick) while at range.        

In terms of his hands, he’s got a great, explosive 1-2 (jab, straight right) but can also throw hooks and uppercuts from weird angles with sting on his shots.        

He also has KO’s but from knees, injury and hammer fists from bottom. But he did floor Buckley with that combo I just mentioned, put down Oliveira with a nicely timed hook, floored Means with a straight leading to the submission, hurt Thompson early, KO’d Ponz late with a hook and caught Chiesa with a straight leading to the submission.      

I don’t think he’s a “pure power” guy but it’s more so his timing, hand speed and shot selection that are on point to hurt opponents.   

Statistically he’s higher output, landing 4.2 SLpM at 49% accuracy – that number is heavily skewed down from his wrestling/intensive fights where he wasn’t at range very much – his distance numbers actually sit above 6+/minute which is much more representative of his higher striking pace.       

His distance differential also gives you a better picture at +1.3/minute so he is consistent to outwork his opponents.    

Defensively, he eats 3.3 SApM and defends at 50%. His defensive numbers have dropped pretty considerably after the Thompson/JDM fights.      

Holland can get tagged on entry at times and has eaten some ground and pound but has largely been able to roll with shots and block a lot of shots opponents throw regardless of the stats. He’s usually not a guy who’s eating extended combinations.        

Holland is probably live to officially get KO’d one of these days (Thompson fight stopped due to a Holland broken hand) but overall he’s a very talented striker and will be difficult to win extended range exchanges against.

How it plays out: Holland profiles as a tougher matchup for Dolidze on the feet as a lengthy/faster/range striker. Holland’s just more dynamic/clean in his striking approach, coupled with the obvious historical fact that Holland’s just reliable to throw more offense. As noted, Dolidze does have power so him hurting Holland isn’t out of the question, but Holland’s been really damn durable. Given Holland’s blitzing nature, I’d actually give him more equity in terms of hurting Dolidze than the other way around which may be a “hot take” – the two guys that have hurt Dolidze in the UFC in Giles and Imavov have similar striking styles.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Dolidze is a brown belt in BJJ and has won some grappling titles in the past, but in some of the lesser respected tournaments/trials. He does have three submission wins on his record over low-level guys, but he did wrestle a fair amount in his fights against Allan and Staropoli.      

Against Allan, he went 3/5 on TDs and was able to rack up 7+ minutes of control time, winning via SD (that fight shouldn’t have been a split, he won the fight 29-28 in my eyes).      

He got Giles down once and got 4+ minutes of control time but the majority of that was in cage push. He also ate a ton of shots from Giles in the 50/50 position which was a factor in him losing the fight.      

He then pretty much just controlled Staropoli from back ride the majority of that fight as Staropoli couldn’t fight hands – we saw some similar things recently against Imavov, but he wasn’t able to do much.    

He got taken down by Hawes and was able to compromise Hawes’ knee with a leg lock despite the fight not being stopped.     

His wrestling metrics overall are okay at 1.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 40% — I just don’t like how he can concede position for submission which was a big part as to why the Giles and Allan fights were close in the eyes of the judges.    

He only stuffs TDs at 33% which is horrible but my opinions on Dolidze’s offensive grappling prowess have evolved.    

The early modified deep half sweep he had against Hermansson and then the calf slicer to back take to GNP finish was really slick – I did not see that coming at all.  He also swept Imavov in one of the rounds after pulling guard.

Overall, despite my evolving opinions on Dolidze as a grappler, it doesn’t change the fact he has poor TDD and the guy’s who he’s been able to outwrestle have been lesser wrestlers.

Holland is a BJJ black belt under coach Travis Lutter.    

But despite his now black belt status, he only has three official wins via submission in the UFC with the first over John Phillips who can’t grapple at all, and the last two over Means and Chiesa who he club and subbed.   

Holland does have those long limbs though where if opponents are going to shoot sloppy stuff on him, he will threaten with front chokes.        

It’s been the ground that has actually given Holland significant struggles throughout his UFC career as he can be taken down, controlled and will play from his back.        

There are many fights to hit so I’ll keep it brief – he got controlled for nearly 10 minutes by Santos (lost that fight), got into a grappling match with GM3 that he edged on the cards but lost in the grappling, had some success against Allen but it was ultimately his downfall as he lost position and got submitted, Stewart took him down three times and got 4+ minutes of control time (Holland dropped the last round because of this but edged another decision), was taken down pretty early by Jacare but scored a finish from his back via hammer fists,  got grinded out by both Brunson and Vettori – most recently, he got ran on the floor by Chimaev.       

But since really putting an emphasis on improving in this realm and going down to 170, he did well with the TDAs from Daukaus and despite being taken down twice on three attempts from Oliveira, he popped up quickly on the 1st but did get his back taken on the 2nd. He was also able to work up under Means and stuffed some really deep shots from Chiesa who is a good wrestler.        

With all of that being said, the floor has primarily been how Holland has either lost fights or been in very closely contested fights.        

Overall, if Holland was more of a threat from bottom, I wouldn’t have as much of an issue but there are multiple data points and fights to reference that indicate this is where he struggles. To Holland’s credit, it’s something he’s acknowledged as an issue and has been taking a stronger wrestling-based training regimen – I think we’ve seen improvements in recent years. 

How it plays out: This is the primary upside to Dolidze. I still don’t rate his offensive wrestling all that much, but he is a physical guy. That’s kind of my concern for Holland especially with him going back up to 185 which was where his original bottom struggles came. At the same time, I’d anticipate a healthy amount of resistance from Holland to where I’m a bit more concerned with cage push minutes in Dolidze just being able to stifle Holland’s offense and frustrate him. What I also think is interesting are the inversion’s from Dolidze. He’s shown some leg locking competency and Holland has long legs. At the same time, while those inversions could put Holland in tricky positions, it could also be really bad for Dolidze. Holland has an 81″ reach and a very long torso so if Dolidze starts attacking legs but isn’t clearing knee lines or getting a solid bite, Holland may brutalize him from those positions with ground strikes. In fact, Dolidze attacking similar positions and eating ground strikes was one of the ultimate factors in him losing his fight to Trevin Giles — just something to consider.

Weird matchup. I’ve always been a fan of Holland but he’s another guy who’s difficult to trust on a fight-to-fight basis as he’s a bit of a clown in fairness. On the flip side, I’ve never been a huge Dolidze proponent just because his offensive production in a vacuum hasn’t been particularly high and he has poor defensive metrics. So, he’s a guy that kind of “brutes” his way through his fights in comparison to being any overt tactician. But as noted, I was impressed with his performance against Vettori. I’m going to side with Holland here because I think he has a bit more finishing upside and even if Dolidze gets 7+ minutes of control primarily via cage push for example, I’d like to think the judges would outweigh Holland’s damage/volume versus Dolidze’s meaningless control. But who knows in the current judging age and Dolidze may be able to accrue some top time as well which is why my confidence interval in Holland is low.

—

On DraftKings, I actually do like this fight because both fighters have defensive issues.

I’m actually a bit surprised that the fight is lined -175 to go the distance, though I suppose the majority of the finishing equity lies with Holland.

He’s priced at 8.3k and is only +215 to win ITD. It’s a weird matchup and there’s no reason to feel exceptionally comfortable with Holland, but it also could be binary in the sense that Holland is either on the ground losing, or striking and winning.

In that case, he could hurt Dolidze. Dolidze was nearly finished by Imavov, and he’s slowed down in multiple fights. I think there’s a chance Holland could tee off on Dolidze at some point if he can keep range, and I think it could lead to a finish, even potentially by sub.

He’s also likely dependent on that kind of performance to reach the optimal. If it’s competitive at all, Holland’s striking output will be minimized and he doesn’t have much wrestling equity to start with.

It’s a risk, obviously, but I don’t mind it. Holland at least carries upside in his style and if he comes in lower owned this week due to matchup concerns, I wouldn’t mind being overweight in larger fields.

Dolidze at 7.9k is definitely on my radar, though I wish he was priced cheaper.

It doesn’t matter a whole lot though, because Dolidze has a strong style to score points and in a win, I expect he could compete with the optimal.

Dolidze has an obvious grappling advantage, and Holland has notoriously poor defensive wrestling and fight IQ. I also think Dolidze could compete on the feet for a bit.

My primary issue on this side is that Dolidze just isn’t as good of a wrestler as I would like. He averages 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and the last time he landed a legit takedown was in 2021 against a scrub in Staropoli.

In his most recent six fights, Dolidze has landed one takedown and it was basically a slip. I really do not trust him to actually go out there and wrestle well. So my gut feeling is that despite Dolidze rating out well, he’s a trap.

With that said, it’s tough to pass on this slate. He has real win equity, and a good style to score in this particular matchup where he will need takedowns and control.

I probably will be cautious with Dolidze but he’s still one of the obvious dogs with upside in my mind and I wouldn’t mind being near the field.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holland by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

UNDERCARD

Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley

Fight Odds: Buckley -220, Thompson +185

Odds to Finish: +150

DraftKings Salaries: Buckley 8.8k, Thompson 7.4k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Stephen Thompson’s rounding out his 13th year on the active roster and is at the not so ripe age of 41 years old – he’s 12-7-1 in the UFC and 17-7-1 as a pro. Joaquin Buckley’s in his 5th year on the roster and despite some bumps along the road, he’s in his career prime at 30 years old and is currently riding a 4-fight win streak – he’s 9-4 in the UFC and 19-6 as a pro.

The striking component:

Thompson has been known as one of the better point fighters in the UFC. 

His karate style coupled with his movement patterns, stance switching and timing makes it very difficult for guys to track him down (striking wise) with consistency.   In that, he only eats 3.1 SApM at 54% and 2.7 DApM at 61%.  

However, he has been knocked down five times so he’s not invincible and has started to get hit more in recent years as well.    

But primarily how Thompson has lost the stand up in his fights has been with the bigger shots coming from opponents, not him getting significantly outpaced at distance.   

In fact, through 20 UFC fights, the biggest distance differential he’s ever been out landed by was five strikes by Darren Till in what was one of the slowest paced fights in UFC history.      

Offensively, he lands 4.1 SLpM at 45% and 4.7 DLpM at 44%. He’s one of those guys who opponents can’t let get into a rhythm or he’ll pick them apart.  Also, despite his point fighting nature, he’s shown some power as well with 10 knockdowns through his UFC tenure – the last one came back in 2019 though.  

Thompson will also begin to go forward more when he deems necessary.   

Overall, Thompson’s proven to be a very difficult guy to out-work on the feet over an extended duration of a fight.   

Buckley’s a shorter, stocky 170 but does possess a 76” reach.      

Statistically, his numbers aren’t the prettiest, landing 4.3 SLpM at 36% and 3.8 DLpM at 31%. Stylistically, he serves as a blitz striker and a guy who will circle the outside and look to time his entries to then come with his flurries – pays some credence to his output numbers.

But he really sits down on everything he throws. However, he can be erratic on the feet because he will go head hunting — I largely attribute his lower accuracy numbers to this.  In that, he will rely a bit too much on his hooks which does leave him exposed at times.      

We saw him really struggle with the length of Holland in his debut, getting nearly 2x’d on strikes at distance.  We also saw him struggle to get inside on Di Chirico who after watching the fight back, was really setting Buckley up for that head kick he landed.      

He struggled with the length of Arroyo to a degree, but Buckley landed the later kill shot.  He dealt fine with the power shots of Alhassan though who we know hits incredibly hard.  He KO’d Duraev in an upset but also only landed on Duraev at a 25% clip.  He was just a step behind a more rangy, effective striker in Imavov despite competing.     

Then he actually looked good against Curtis and was winning the fight before getting clipped off a naked kick. The Fialho performance wasn’t great prior to the head kick but he fought decently in his last handful of outings against Morono, Luque and Ruziboev.

Despite being a lower volume guy on average, it hasn’t held him back all that much because he only eats 3.1 SApM at 58% — 3.3 DApM at 61%.   

On the other side, if guys can’t manage distance effectively, Buckley will blast/expose/outwork those guys.  He’s got some solid power, fast hands and is a pretty athletic dude to boot.    

His durability has come into question on a few occasions now though.  

Overall, Buckley’s entering his career prime at 30 years old and has some promise if he can up his defensive capabilities and disguise his pocket entries a bit better.     

How it plays out: The striking dynamic is interesting here as both guys’ styles have given each other problems in the past. You have the bursting explosive style of Buckley versus the more tactical/outside/counter striking of Thompson. Given the dynamic, I’d anticipate the pace of the striking to be on the lower end. In terms of where both guys are at, I’d give more KO upside to Buckley considering Thompson fights with his hands down but at the same time, Buckley’s reckless approaches at times into the pocket could very well lead him to getting effectively countered or hurt himself. So, the striking seems variable to me with that dynamic but on paper, Thompson is the better technical striker and has landed over 100 significant strikes three times in his career whereas Buckley’s high is 86 last time out, but the majority of those came on the ground. Once again, I’d anticipate this to be fought at a slower pace though.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Obviously with Thompson coming from that Karate background, he’s not the guy out here shooting/landing a lot of TDs – 0.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 41%.     

He hasn’t landed a TD since 2015 so there really isn’t much to say on the offensive front.   

Defensively, he’s been tougher to take down and hold down in the aggregate over his career, stuffing at 66% and only conceding 15% of his overall fight time being controlled.     

However, we’ve seen that tide shift heavily in his last three losses.  Burns took him down three times on six attempts and controlled him for seven minutes. Burns is also a solid wrestler and elite submission grappler though.     

He got grinded into oblivion by Muhammad who went 7/9 on TDs and controlled Thompson for 80% of the fight. Muhammad is the now sitting champion though in fairness.    

Holland taking him down twice is kind of concerning as well but I think that was more so due to him just catching Thompson off guard.   

Thompson did stuff 4/5 shots from Rakhmonov in the last outing but he also got stuck against the fence and once Rakhmonov got him on the ground, he was able to keep him there and eventually find the submission late in round two – he was the first guy to submit Thompson in his career though which needs to be noted.  

Outside of that, not many guys have had any extended wrestling success on Thompson – you have to go back all the way back to Matt Brown in 2012 – Woodley had a bit of success in the 1st fight but once again not extended.     

Overall, Thompson getting outwrestled by Burns, Muhammad and Rakhmonov isn’t a bad look on paper but it’s how efficient and how much extended success those guys had that was the concerning part, given the historics of Thompson.

The defensive wrestling was where Buckley’s had problems historically back on the regional scene.     

To his credit, one of the fights was against Logan Storley who’s a world class wrestler so no shame there, but in another fight against De Jesus (black belt, okay wrestler), he struggled at points but was able to work up. But those fights referenced above were over five years ago, which needs to be noted.      

However, he got outwrestled in the 3rd round against Alhassan who’s known for historically poor cardio and to not be much of a wrestling threat – pretty disconcerting there considering he had only been shot on once in the UFC prior to that fight.     

However, he then goes out there and holds Duraev to only two TDs on nine attempts for less than two minutes of control – impressive considering that Duraev was one of the better wrestlers that Buckley had fought to date – it appears some bigger evolutions have been made there.      

But he then followed that up with conceding a few TDs to Imavov and got put in dominant positions despite surviving.     

Offensively, we’ve seen him mix TDs in certain fights, landing 1.69/15 minutes at 44% but it’s not something you can necessarily bank on Buckley to do, although he is capable as an entry wrestler.  

The issue is that his ground control historically hasn’t been the best and he has no pro wins via submission.   

I thought him going to the wrestling last time out against Ruziboev showed good fight IQ though, and he is out controlling his opponents at a 1.5:1 ratio at the end of the day.

Overall, it’s hard for me to classify the ground as a strength or weakness for Buckley per say. It’s really just opponent dependent.

How it plays out: Given that Thompson has no interest in wrestling and some of his recent historics, you’d have to give the large bulk of ground equity to Buckley. He’s very physically strong and explosive with his TDs which leads me to believe that he’ll be able to ground Thompson in this fight – if he’s smart, I’d also assume a chuck of his gameplan will revolve around wrestling. BUT, as noted, he’s not a great ground control guy historically and the guys that have really taken it to Thompson on the floor are all far more put together ground fighters than Buckley.

Interesting fight. I ultimately come out on the Buckley side for the three primary reasons of KO equity, wrestling equity and youth. Buckley will be 11 years younger than Thompson which is pretty hard to ignore. With all that being said, if Buckley isn’t able to control Thompson extensively or finish him, he’s live to just get out struck by a better technical striker and/or get hurt to where he loses the fight so my confidence interval on Buckley is relatively low to be honest.

—

On DraftKings, I’ll likely be targeting this one, though it doesn’t rate spectacularly better than others.

Buckley is priced up to 8.8k and there is a major concern he would bust in a decision win. Thompson won’t allow many significant strikes and could slow the pace down.

With that said, Buckley has both KO equity and wrestling equity, and the combination of all still do give him upside. He’s +210 to win ITD which is fine, but again not spectacular for this price tag.

I have mixed feelings on Buckley. I think this line is too wide personally and I think Thompson is a pretty live underdog if he can just negate some of Buckley’s wrestling attack. It’s hard to be confident in a 41 year old with poor recent showings though.

Buckley is likely going to be a salary option for me. I’d rather spend up when possible but the mid and upper 8k range doesn’t pack much of a punch. When I find myself needing someone in that range, Buckley is perfectly acceptable and he at least carries a ceiling.

Thompson at 7.4k has an extremely low floor, and he could also suck in a striking based decision. He has no wrestling equity and he’s only +525 to win ITD.

With that said, this is a big step up for Buckley and kind of a big step down for Thompson. Buckley may just have to run forward at Thompson and while that could lead to success, I do think Thompson could hurt him. Remember, Buckley has been KOd in three of his four UFC losses, all by arguably worse competition than Thompson.

So I actually don’t mind Thompson personally. I don’t have much of an expectation here and I don’t consider him a massive stand out, but I do think he has a path to victory and I do think he has sneaky KO equity.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Buckley by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Fight Odds: Lucindo -194, Rodriguez +165

Odds to Finish: +240

DraftKings Salaries: Lucindo 8.6k, Rodriguez 7.6k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Marina Rodriguez is an alum of one of the original seasons of the Contender Series back in 2018. She’s established herself as a top 10/15 talent but is getting up there in age at 37 and has dropped three of her last four fights – she’s 7-4-2 in the UFC and 17-4-2 as a pro. Iasmin Lucindo’s one of the younger females on the roster at just 22 years old but on the heels of three straight wins, she now finds herself in the top 15 – she’s 3-1 in the UFC and 16-5 as a pro.

The striking component:

I’ve always been bullish on the striking of Rodriguez.      

She’s really technical but also generally has a higher output at the same time which isn’t always the case for most fighters – we have seen some tepid components in certain style matchups though.  But overall, she lands 5.1 distance strikes per minute at 39%.    

She’s outpaced 11 of her 13 UFC opponents at distance with the two exceptions being Lemos by seven strikes and Andrade by two strikes. Even in her two draws and handful of losses, she’s still repping a nice distance strike differential of +1.9/minute.      

Outside of her being solid at distance, one of the best components of her game is her clinch. She’s got nasty knees and elbows which clearly take an impact in her fights – we saw that more recently against Waterson which was a massacre.     

In general, she’s a very physical striker for 115 lbs despite a lankier frame.       

At distance, she defends at a 63% clip and only eats 3.2/minute — solid.      

However, we did see Yan give her issues in playing a more mobile/outside game (I scored that fight for Yan) and the general power of Lemos shut down some of M-Rod’s volume – she ultimately got clipped and KO’d in the 3rd but has by and large worn shots well – Lemos is one of the bigger hitters at 115 lbs in fairness.    

Her most recent fight with Andrade was competitive, with the distance strikes being 79-77 in favor of Andrade, but Rodriguez also doubled her up on head strikes. Ironically, despite that stat, it was Andrade landing later damage in the 2nd round, rocking Rodriguez which was the ultimate pivot point decider in the decision. 

Overall, she’s high-level on the feet and can compete minute to minute at a bare minimum with any girl in the division standing.   

Lucindo comes from a kickboxing background but prior to her UFC debut, we hadn’t really seen much of her stand up.    

In the bit we did, she barely threw strikes and largely only threw in single shots.  But in her debut against Jauregui, she looked like a completely different fighter.    

Lucindo ultimately got out landed but competed closely and made a very good account of herself in the outing, especially considering it was a short notice fight for her as well.

Assuming what we saw in that fight being transparent to her going forward, she is going to outwork many girls she fights and has some serious pop in her hands.    

She wasn’t super high volume against Walker, but she picked her apart cleanly and lumped her up. She also hurt Viana standing to boot in the following fight.

Most recently, she out struck Karolina 83-42 and hurt her in the fight as well – Karolina may be an older fighter but was on a four-fight win streak coming into that bout and dropped her historic volume patterns by a decent amount.

What I still don’t like is that Lucindo’s defense in the pocket isn’t great and she can be a bit sporadic with her shot selection, but she’s got really fasts hands, her strikes take an impact on opponents, she’s good on the counter and has shown she can fight in higher volume affairs.

Overall, for a girl who’s only 22, the sky’s the limit for her from a striking perspective if she can refine her process and tighten things up a bit more.  

How it plays out: Rodriguez will realize a 3” height advantage in this spot but Lucindo will be at a 1” reach advantage. The striking’s interesting for a handful of reasons. Off the top, Rodriguez is the more established and technical striker within this matchup who I feel has generally more tools within her arsenal. At the same time, the three biggest issues that Rodriguez has had on the feet is within occasional pressure, counters and power shots – three attributes that Lucindo has shown to display thus far early in her career. But then again, the most technical girl that Lucindo has faced thus far in Jauregui ultimately beat her despite it being a very close fight. I ultimately think the striking is probably close here where you may have more “minute” upside with Rodriguez but bigger “moment” upside with Lucindo. But I can’t stress enough the step up Rodriguez is from a technical perspective for Lucindo.

The wrestling/grappling component:

The floor has been M-Rods biggest issue.    

Despite stuffing TDs at 65% (right around the divisional average), her get up game in a vacuum has been poor to where she has consistently dropped rounds/minutes on the floor.    

She was 10-8’d by Markos, 10-8’d by Calvillo, taken down five times and controlled for nearly 2/3 of the fight against Esparza, dropped the 1st round to Ribas, dropped a round on the ground to Waterson, and dropped a round to Dern. Xiaonan was able to take her down a few times, Lemos rode out the majority of the 2nd round on top, she was outwrestled by Jandiroba to a decision and most recently dropped the 1st to Andrade after slipping off a kick.  

To Rodriguez’ credit, I think she’s improved her overall guard retention and ability to nullify passes better in comparison to some of her earlier fights – coupled with not getting finished with some higher-level grapplers on top of her.   

Her surviving the positions she was put in by Dern was shocking to be candid, she got out of a nasty neck crank from Lemos and didn’t get subbed by Jandiroba.   

So, despite her largely lacking get up game, she’s proven to be a good defensive grappler in relation to not getting subbed – although I still think the law of large numbers may catch up to her at some point.       

But by and large, if she gets taken down, she’s dropped the round a good chunk of the time and hasn’t shown much offensive upside, having only landed two TDs so far in the UFC. She finished Waterson from top a few fights back but that was a product of her stuffing and falling into mount after brutalizing the poor girl who’s since retired.

Lucindo is a BJJ purple belt with the bulk of her career success coming on the ground pre-UFC.     

I don’t think she’s anything special as a wrestler but she’s physical for 115 lbs and is strong from body lock positions to get girls down from there.  

When on top, she’s shown to be pretty strong in terms of being able to pass and maintain top/dominant positions.  She’s snagged up a few armbars back regionally, but I’d say her ground and pound is probably a better component of her ground game.  

I do partially attribute some of her success to fighting incompetent grapplers though – the last girl she fought regionally was a Judo black belt, but we also know that Judo players tend to not be great when put on their backs – that girl was also trash in general.  

She does have a W over UFC alum Sarah Frota, but it was a fight I was unable to view – Tapology has it listed as a UD win where Sherdog has it as a SD win – kind of interesting.     

We then saw very little grappling in her debut as Jauregui was able to stuff both of Lucindo’s TDAs.    

She landed four on Walker but they came towards the end of rounds – she did end the 2nd in mount.  

Against Viana, Viana was able to get her down from a body lock and rack up some control but wasn’t able to do anything with the position, forcing a ref stand up. But Lucindo then turned the tide in the 2nd round, getting Viana down from the body lock to where she ended up passing guard and finishing via arm triangle. I’ve always thought that Viana’s BJJ is a bit overrated, but she is a black belt that had only been submitted once prior, so it’s a good feather in the cap of Lucindo at the end of the day.

She most recently went 2/6 against Karolina and mounted her at one point but also let her up on a few occasions.   

Overall, I like largely what I’ve seen from Lucindo as she’s shown stronger process from top positions, but it’s still a bit concerning that the Viana fight is the only time that I’ve seen her on the bottom and she didn’t conventionally work up to the feet.

How it plays out: Despite the limited sample/concern of Lucindo on bottom against Viana, I would have to give a bulk of the ground upside to Lucindo. Once again, I don’t think she’s a world beater as a wrestler and Rodriguez isn’t an “incapable” TD defender, but I do feel Lucindo is the more physical girl in those positions who’s just the more likely party to pursue and mix things in. It still irks me that she let Karolina up like she did in that fight though. I don’t think Lucindo is finishing Rodriguez on the mat if Dern and Jandiroba couldn’t who are far more credentialed ground players than her, but the floor is still a way that she can win rounds if she pushes.

Add this one to the list of solid fights on this PPV card. Macro wise, I lean more to the Lucindo side based on youth, moments and perceived grappling upside. At the same time, she’s getting a sizable step up in competition against a girl in Rodriguez who despite being older, is an established upper tier talent whereas Lucindo is not at this point. There is a real “vet lesson” dynamic that could come into play here that would not shock me at all where I consider Rodriguez a very live underdog. I think it’s a close fight but I still lean Lucindo.

—

On DraftKings, it’s another questionable matchup for fantasy purposes though the pacing should be decent.

Lucindo is priced up to 8.6k, and she’s been a mediocre fantasy asset thus far, earning wins of 73, 94 and 85. The 94 pointer came with a second round submission though, while the decision wins tell a more lackluster story.

Lucindo is only +315 to win ITD here, which is the problem. Without real finishing equity, there’s a pretty strong chance she will not reach a ceiling or contend for the optimal lineup.

With that said, she does have some grappling equity. She’s averaged 2.6 takedowns in her three UFC wins, and Rodriguez isn’t super strong defensively. I think that gives Lucindo a decent floor in a win, and also Rodriguez may force her to throw volume standing as well.

The combination of those things at least gives me some hope for Lucindo. But she feels more like a safe option than someone with screaming upside. 

Perhaps at this price savings in a difficult mid-range, Lucindo is still viable as a secondary target. I just won’t be prioritizing her outright as she has typically struggled to reach 10x.

Rodriguez at 7.6k is fine, but I’m not very excited by her.

Her ITD odds are much worse at +650, and she has less grappling equity than Lucindo. She’s actually a threatening striker but still, Lucindo has looked very competent so it doesn’t seem fair to project Rodriguez to win by TKO at a moderate rate.

Without that, or many takedowns, Rodriguez has a low floor and ceiling. She has a pretty decent chance of going the distance, and fighting competitively, but that could easily look like 30 points in a loss or 60-70 in a win.

Her past three-round decision wins have scored 61 and 76, so I am pretty nervous about the upside overall. It’s just not an ideal matchup to score highly.

Rodriguez can squeak out a decision, and she’s viable in that sense for her salary savings and win equity. But I’m not inclined to use her more than a standard secondary target, or less, due to matchup and ceiling concerns.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lucindo by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard

Fight Odds: Hernandez -165, Hubbard +142

Odds to Finish: +155

DraftKings Salaries: Hernandez 8.6k, Hubbard 7.6k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a bit of a crossroads fight here for Alexander Hernandez as he will be taking on the very average Austin Hubbard this weekend.

Hernandez is an okay fighter. He lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.66 in return. He is capable of landing some big shots with some blitzes. He has some speed too, but other than that I don’t think he is particularly good or skilled on the feet. I do think his overall pace on the feet has looked better in a few of his more recent matchups though.

Hernandez has struggled mightily going through adversity in fights. We have seen him broken on numerous occasions, including by Billy Quarantillo, Drew, Dober, and Donald Cerrone.

Again though, I do think he looked tougher down the stretch in his last few fights.

As a grappler, Herndandez seems pretty competent but not great. He comes from a wrestling background. He lands 1.06 takedowns per 15 minutes. He outwrestled Olivier Aubin-Mercier to a grinding decision which was his best 15-minute performance to date. 

He also took Drew Dober down three times but couldn’t keep Dober on the mat and was eventually knocked out. I do think Hernandez can outgrapple weak to below-average grapplers in this division but that’s about it.

Defensively as a grappler, Hernandez is okay. He defends takedowns at 59 percent. He is not very easy to take and hold down, but he can get his back taken and beat on the mat, and body triangled especially when he tires out.

Hernandez will be taking on Austin Hubbard. Austin Hubbard had an initial run in the UFC trading wins and losses and going 3-4 against low to mid-tier competition. He then fought on the Ultimate Fighter and came up short in the finale. He then fought Michal Figlak last fight and won a decision as an underdog by striking competitively with Figlak and landing a few takedowns.

Hubbard is a bit of a generalist. He isn’t good at anything, but he isn’t particularly bad at anything either. He can strike a bit, he can grapple a bit, and he is pretty tough with decent cardio. He just isn’t great anywhere though and isn’t the best athlete either.

As a striker, Hubbard is just okay. He lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.74 in return. He defends strikes at 56 percent. I don’t think he is fast or anything on the feet.

However, he does have okay boxing and is a very tough kid. He can just scrap a bit. I still don’t trust him standing either though as he has no plus skillset in his striking game.

I do think Hubbard is a decent offensive wrestler though. He lands 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t bad in top position. He landed four takedowns against Vinc Pichel and did win some fights on TUF with offensive wrestling. He is also a decent defensive wrestler and defends takedowns at 63 percent, and scrambles up decently.

I still just don’t trust Hubbard to ever run away in a fight in any particular area against anyone good. I think Hubbard is moreso made to beat underdeveloped fighters who have holes in their game. He just isn’t good enough to easily defeat developed fighters.

As far as this matchup goes, I honestly just think this is a very close fight. I don’t think either guy will easily be able to land takedowns or obtain top position. A takedown may happen for either man but I doubt it leads to much.

I think these guys will strike a bit. On the feet, this just looks very competitive. I honestly sort of trust Hubbard on the feet more. Hernandez is more athletic but I think Hubbard is more consistent as a striker and more comfortable on the feet. I also think Hubbard is just tougher and more durable than Hernandez. I have never seen Hubbard quit in a fight while I have seen Hernandez get broken.

I just think this is going to be a back and forth close fight. Both guys will probably land their strikes and have their moments, and land a takedown or two. It will probably go to the scorecards the majority of the time.

—

On DraftKings, I sense that the public would rather play the dog in Hubbard than Hernandez.

It’s fair, at this point in Hernandez’ career he’s very tough to trust. He’s priced at 8.6k and feels like an uncomfortable click.

He does carry both KO equity and wrestling equity, but just not enough of it. He’s actually +210 to win ITD but Hubbard has been very difficult to finish, and Hernandez has only won ITD once in his last seven fights.

Just based on box scores alone, I don’t think Hernandez will be very popular. My best guess is that it’s a competitive fight where he fails to reach a ceiling. With that said, considering his ITD line and wrestling equity, he’s a viable contrarian option but not one I’m actively chasing.

Hubbard is priced at 7.6k and I don’t hate him. This slate is kind of tough in terms of underdogs, because we have several live ones, but very few with real ceilings.

Hubbard is only +600 to win ITD here so again, it’s the same issue. Some mild-paced boxing with a couple of takedowns would be nice, but it’s far from slate-breaking and he definitely doesn’t need to be prioritized.

Hubbard has scored 84 and 96 in his last two decision wins though, partially because he has some success wrestling. It’s not the most exciting play in the world but for 7.6k, I am interested.

Especially as the odds keep getting closer, Hubbard is a slight value at +140 to win. He feels more like a safe option than an awesome tournament play but I’d label him a solid secondary target due to price savings, grappling equity and realistic win conditions.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hubbard by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria

Fight Odds: Almeida -390, Potieria +304

Odds to Finish: -700

DraftKings Salaries: Almeida 9.4k, Potieria 6.8k

Weight Class: 185

Top-level kickboxer Cesar Almeida will be getting a soft matchup this weekend against fellow striker Ihor Potieria.

Almeida is 5-1 professionally at age 36, and has an extensive kickboxing background, only transitioning to MMA full-time in recent years.

He actually beat Alex Pereira (once out of three times) in kickboxing, and he holds more than 50 pro kickboxing bouts, which shows the degree of his skills. That’s also likely why he’s being set up with a nice matchup here, as the UFC knows they can tie him to Pereira.

But as we know, MMA is a different game and not every kickboxer can climb the ranks as easily as Pereira or Adesanya.

I honestly wish Almeida had more of a BJJ background because that would give me a far better opinion of him than I have currently.

His most obvious flaw entering the UFC was his defensive grappling, which makes sense. He survived an early wrestling attack from Dylan Budka in his UFC debut, but got largely controlled in his most recent match against Roman Kopylov.

Through three tracked fights, Almeida has given up 11 takedowns with a 56 percent defensive rate. He’s actually survived all three fights, so his scrambling has been decent, but it’s clearly a weakness and he will lose to wrestlers again soon.

Potieria isn’t a wrestler though, and in fact, Potieria has not landed one takedown in seven tracked fights.

Potieria is a basic striker with some knockout power, but without early damage, he is not likely to sustain much success at this level.

With that said, Potieria has managed to land four knockdowns in his last seven fights, and he even hurt one of his recent opponents very late in the fight, which was a surprise considering his previous cardio issues.

Still, his wins have not come against quality competition, and I would argue his defense, cardio, and grappling are all pretty clear weaknesses.

Potieria is currently landing 5.13 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.04 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. He’s been TKOd in all three of his four UFC losses, with all four losses ending in round one or round two.

He’s also defending takedowns at 57 percent, and looks poor on the bottom. It looks pretty clear that he will continue to struggle against quality grapplers and has potential to get finished on the mat.

All in all, Potieria has some mild early KO upside, but he’s very unlikely to succeed at a per-round level, and he looks quite breakable defensively, both on the feet and on the mat.

In that sense, it’s a great matchup for Almeida. He has an elite kickboxing pedigree and shouldn’t have to worry about defending a grappling attack. He’s also not facing the most competent, technical, volume based or defensively sound opponent on the feet.

There’s a pretty good chance that Almeida can unload here, hurt Potieria early, and score the knockout.

The potential problems are just that Almeida is very inexperienced in MMA, and he hasn’t been the best finisher thus far. He knocked out each of his first three regional opponents who were scrubs, and then had a decent test on DWCS. He actually won that fight by decision, but it wasn’t the best performance.

Then he got outwreslted by Budka and TKOd him against the cage while still defending takedowns. It wasn’t a pure standing KO or anything.

And then against Kopylov, he was getting cracked. He did outland Kopylov 51 to 32 at distance, and Kopylov is very legit. But Kopylov cracked him multiple times as well.

Point being, Almeida landed 58 sig. strikes and 71 on DWCS. He has no offensive wrestling attack that we know of. He’s pretty old for MMA. His profile is quite boom or bust, and I don’t expect him to ever be a contender, but this still does feel like a matchup where he can excel.

Especially seeing him survive and fight through some adversity against Kopylov, I’d favor Almeida later in the fight. I’m not sure it gets that far, and I think an early KO is quite likely as well.

Potieria will simply need to throw back, and hope he can win competitive rounds or hurt Almeida. It’s possible, but not super likely.

—

On DraftKings, Almeida is priced up to 9.4k which makes him very tough to prioritize.

Pereira and Harrison feel like far safer options priced above him, and I’d prefer them if possible. However those two are also more expensive and may not fit all constructions.

And honestly, Pereira doesn’t profile much better than Almeida. Both have a boom or bust nature.

Almeida is -285 to win ITD and actually has better RD 1 odds at +130 vs. +150 of Pereira, and we know Potieria typically loses in round one or two. I think rostering Almeida some, or moderately is fine, hoping he can earn that early KO.

He could even be prioritized ahead of the two fighters above him, given the potential ownership discrepancy and salary relief.

He’s still just extremely boom or bust, and that’s what makes me the most nervous. If the fight extends, he’ll bust. And even if he wins by early KO, he could get beaten out by other top-end scores in the same range.

I’ll certainly take some risks with Almeida and use him in price sensitive constructions, but he’s not an ultra-stand out at such a high price tag.

Potieria at 6.8k is viable as a punt, and he has some upside.

But I don’t think a striking based decision would score too many points, and he’s +380 to win ITD. That’s actually not a terrible ITD line all things considered and there is some merit to it – Almeida is old, can be hit, and there’s variance in these exchanges.

Still, Potieria isn’t a great talent and I don’t want to invest much in him. He’s a fine punt or sprinkle in large fields, and he should carry leverage, but I’m still certainly limiting how much I click his name.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almeida by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Fight Odds: Spann -246, Saint Preux +205

Odds to Finish: -425

DraftKings Salaries: Spann 9.2k, Saint Preux 7k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an absolute mess of a fight here between Ovince Saint Preux and Ryan Spann.

OSP was last seen in the cage winning as a monster underdog against Kennedy Nzechukwu. It was honestly shocking to see OSP perform like that. He had been knocked out frequently before that fight and then he outlanded Kennedy 143-106 in significant strikes. I still thought Kennedy looked awful, but OSP surely overperformed my expectations and it at least makes me think he can fight three rounds without gassing.

It is tough to still fully trust OSP though. He is 41 years old and has been knocked out in three of his last five fights. Durability is an obvious concern going forward with him. His only other win in the last four years came against the ghost of Shogun Rua where he won a measly split decision and only landed 62 significant strikes.

I don’t like OSP’s striking much. He lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.32 in return. He defends strikes at 47 percent which isn’t good either. He just isn’t reliable to land much volume. However, he is still a big strong guy capable of landing knockouts here and there. Although he doesn’t land much volume in general, that Kennedy fight was a bit of an outlier with OSP landing 143 significant strikes.

OSP has a lot of wins by submission, generally by Von Flue choke which isn’t a predictive method. I still don’t consider him a great grappler or takedown artist though. He lands 1.10 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about three takedowns per fight. He is an okay wrestler and capable of using his size and bullying a submission. Other than that, I don’t consider him great though.

OSP will be taking on Ryan Spann. Spann is a spaz and that is the best way to describe him. Spann just comes out like a bat out of hell and tries to finish his opponents quickly.

Spann is dangerous on the feet early, and he is capable of just throwing heat and knocking opponents dead which he did in his last win vs Dominick Reyes. He also really likes to try and bully grapple opponents, and work a power guillotine. He is almost obsessed with the move and he always goes for it.

The issue with Spann is that if he doesn’t get that early knockout of early guillotine, he just has nothing else and generally gets finished himself. He just collapses and quits honestly. I don’t respect his durability at all. He has lost his last three fights and has looked awful in all of them.

Spann is not particularly skilled at anything either. His entire game is basically reliant on early explosions. He is not good in extended striking exchanges and only defends strikes at 48 percent. He is also not good in extended wrestling exchanges and only defends takedowns at 45 percent.

As far as this matchup goes, this is a shitshow. I honestly think this line is wide though. There is no business for Ryan Spann being over -300 against anyone. Sure, Spann may go out there and knock OSP out. Spann hits hard and OSP gets knocked out often. So of course Spann can win this fight.

However, if OSP just manages to survive, I honestly think he may win. I probably consider OSP a better round winner and he is a lot tougher than Ryan Spann. If the fight just happens to extend and turn into a bit of a back and forth dog fight, I honestly think OSP can take over and Spann may just quit. Spann is just such a quitter and flaker man.

I am not confident OSP wins this fight. OSP is old and gets knocked out often. There are definitely ways for him to lose here. However, I overall think he is a tougher guy than Spann in an extended fight. So I am going to pick OSP to get the upset here even though it makes me sick to my stomach.

—

On DraftKings, I’m also pretty sick to my stomach that this matchup feels like one of the priorities on the slate.

It has one of the heaviest ITD lines on the slate at -425, and in an early finish, the winner should definitely contend for the optimal. It also sucks that it seems like many recent “priority” fights have either been canceled on fight day, or played out in ugly fashion like Cutelaba vs. Erslan last week.

I’ve been a pretty big hater of Spann for years though, and I generally agree with Tim’s analysis. The bulk of his career wins are by guillotine but he’s a terrible grappler, and otherwise just has some early KO power.

The difficult part is that I’ve also been a big hater of OSP because he does essentially nothing in fights, and is old and non-processed. Then he randomly had the best kickboxing performance of his life against a quality prospect in Nzechukwu last time out. So I don’t know what to think.

My ultimate conclusion is that someone is probably getting finished. I think Spann has definite early KO upside, and OSP could hurt or submit Spann. Plus in an extended fight I have some hope for OSP as well now.

Spann is priced up to 9.2k and I honestly think it makes sense to go back to the well here, despite my concerns.

OSP has been KOd in RD 1 or 2 in each of his last three losses, and now the public might finally be scared off of Spann with him losing three in a row, and OSP winning his most recent matchup.

Spann is still extremely boom or bust, but he’s -220 to win ITD and cheaper than several other top options. We may get the ownership discount now as well.

It’s very gross and I don’t like Spann as a talent. But the price/ownership/KO upside combination makes him a pretty strong tournament target this week.

OSP is priced at 7k and is probably my favorite cheap option of the week. He has multiple paths to win and clear upside too.

He’s only +400 to win ITD but Spann has been finished early in four of his past five losses, and this is low-level LHW, so I’d consider OSP’s chances of a finish to be better than advertised.

I am somewhat concerned he’ll be highly owned though, with the three fighters priced below him not taking in much ownership. That would be the biggest drawback, if OSP gets steamed due to pricing and matchup.

Still, I do like him for the matchup, price and upside factor, and I’m pretty willing to punt with him semi-frequently. He’s still a risk, but I like investing in fights that are projected to end ITD one way or the other.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Spann by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington

Fight Odds: Pennington -173, Esparza +149

Odds to Finish: +375

DraftKings Salaries: Pennington 8.7k, Esparza 7.5k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

One of the sweethearts of the Technical Tim betting portfolio, Carla Esparza will be fighting her last career fight this weekend against UFC veteran Tecia Pennington.

I have a soft spot for Esparza because she has cashed for me as an underdog multiple times. I generally think she has been underestimated throughout her career so it’s been nice to see her prove a lot of people wrong.

I also want to point out that Esparza and Tecia Pennington (known as Tecia Torres at that time) fought on the Ultimate Fighter show a very long time ago back in 2014. Esparza won by decision by basically landing occasional takedowns and outwrestling Torres. Both fighters are now at different stages of their careers with their athleticism and skills though, so I won’t put a ton of stock into it, but I did want to mention it.

Carla Esparza is always a girl who I have liked. She is a consistent wrestler. She lands 3.22 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 10 takedowns per 15 minutes. I love that Esparza is a fighter that consistently goes to her path to victory. She doesn’t mess around or try to strike for too long. She shoots takedowns, and a lot of them.

Carla has had 15 UFC fights and has landed a takedown in every single fight except against Tatiana Suarez. Suarez is literally the best wrestler in the history of WMMA so that doesn’t bother me much. 

Once in top position, I consider Carla to be a very consistent and trustworthy grappler. She has only been submitted once in her career and is generally very safe to just stay in top position. 

Carla doesn’t advance position too well on people with a solid closed guard. However, she is capable of landing ground and pound, especially when she actually advances position.

Carla isn’t much of a striker. She lands 2.16 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.69 in return. She really just looks to evade strikes. She is underrated as an evader of strikes. She is all the way out on the feet or all the way in. She doesn’t give her opponents much opportunity to land on the feet. However, she isn’t capable of producing much offense on the feet either. Carla basically just needs to land takedowns for me to expect her to win fights.

Carla will be taking on UFC veteran Tecia Pennington. Pennington is a fairly well-rounded fighter with a ton of experience.

I mostly consider Pennington a striker. She lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.59 in return. She is skilled as a striker and technical. She has outlanded her last three opponents and actually outlanded Angela Hill 144-96 in significant strikes in a very good performance. I generally respect Pennington on the feet, but I do wish she had a little more power.

Pennington isn’t a very effective offensive wrestler. She lands 0.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at 14 percent. She is okay as a defensive wrestler. She defends takedowns at 65 percent and can scramble up at times. She recently defended 9 of 10 takedowns against Tabatha Ricci which was good.

However, I still don’t totally trust Pennington as a defensive wrestler. I have still seen her taken down and held down for stretches here and there.

Pennington is going to need to avoid the wrestling of Esparza to win. If Pennington does, I definitely think that she is a better striker than Esparza. Esparza may be able to limit the striking engagements and limit the offense of Pennington with the takedown threat. However, Pennington should be at an advantage standing so I guess I understand why Pennington is favored.

I still think this line may be wide though man. Esparza is still a good wrestler and just a few fights ago she absolutely dominated Yan Xiaonan. Since then, Esparza has fought Zhang and Rose, two very good grapplers so people may be forgetting how consistent and reliable Esparza is to land takedowns against most of this division. Pennington is a pretty big step down in competition from Rose and Zhang as a defensive grappler as well.

So I am actually going to go with Esparza here. I tend to think she can limit engagements and land some takedowns here and there and win this fight. There is a good chance it will be competitive though.

—

On DraftKings, I’m pretty hesitant to invest in this one.

First of all, I’ve long respected Esparza as a wrestler and despite her facing strong competition recently, even beating Namajunas for the title, I don’t think she’s looked great.

She’s just so limited as a striker and wrestling control is getting essentially punished by judges these days. So unless Esparza is literally holding you down for 3-4 minutes per round, I am very nervous she won’t do enough to get the decision.

She could definitely take Pennington down. Maybe even a few times. Pennington also scrambles well and won’t just play guard, and Pennington is a superior striker. My guess is the judges will favor the striking more, but who knows.

Regardless, Pennington priced up to 8.7k makes me extremely uncomfortable. She doesn’t have much wrestling equity, nor does she have real finishing equity at +575 ITD.

Even her typically strong volume won’t likely be there, partially due to Esparza limiting range exchanges and partially because Pennington could get held down.

I just don’t know what upside Pennington has, unless she can make Esparza quit. It’s a retirement fight so who knows, but I don’t trust it. I just really hate the pacing of this fight and I think it will severely limit the amount of offense Pennington can produce.

At 8.7k, the most likely outcome even in a win is a mediocre DK score that doesn’t reach 10x. Sure there are possible outliers but I wouldn’t trust them.

I don’t expect Pennington to be owned much at all so she could be a real contrarian target, but ultimately, not one I’m super interested to target.

Esparza is the preferred play at 7.5k because she wrestles. She has legitimate upside given her style and could easily contend with the optimal lineup in a win.

My real fear is that she loses though. She’s looked more hesitant recently and I already mentioned how few strikes she throws. Yeah if she dominates on the ground she will smash but I think there’s a very good chance the fight is competitive, or Esparza is losing.

That makes me want to limit my exposure on the Esparza side as well. She’s +650 ITD and it makes sense to prioritize finishing equity elsewhere a bit.

I still do want to use Esparza as a secondary target because of her wrestling base. She is a solid target in that sense. I just do not want to overinvest here because without dominating top control, Esparza won’t score points, and in a retirement fight, I don’t feel very confident she’ll put up a strong performance.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pennington by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Court McGee vs. Tim Means

Fight Odds: Means -189, McGee +162

Odds to Finish: +135

DraftKings Salaries: Means 9k, McGee 7.2k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a battle between two aging veterans here as Tim Means and Court McGee will square off this weekend. I am honestly surprised these two have never fought before as they both have been around forever.

I think Means is best as a striker. He is a sharp and technical boxer who uses his frame well. He lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.64 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. Those are good metrics, and I think Means is a solid and fundamental boxer.

Means is aging though. He is now 40 years old, and I do get a little more nervous watching him more now than in the past. Maybe it is because he was knocked out by Niko Price, Daniel Rodriguez, and most recently Uros Medic so his chin concerns me. Those guys are all super dangerous though so perhaps I am being too hard on Means.

Still though, Means isn’t getting any younger. He was also hurt and submitted by Kevin Holland recently and then submitted by Morono. That was a very tough matchup for Means on paper, but I just don’t like already aging fighters taking damage and getting finished. I still expect Means to be a fine fighter and capable on the feet, but I do suspect his best days are behind him. He did look good recently against Andre Fialho though where we bet him as an underdog.

Means is a decent grappler. He lands 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of clinching or getting top position occasionally, especially off caught kicks. Means is also decent defensively as a wrestler and defends takedowns at 65 percent.

Means will be taking on Court McGee. McGee is a tough guy and a fairly well-rounded fighter. However, he is just so old now at 39 and has been brutally knocked out in two of his last three matchups. It is hard to trust him at this point in his career.

McGee’s metrics are actually decent. He lands 4.60 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.62 in return. He is a decent striker and has a good work rate, with solid cardio. 

However, I do think McGee is kind of an anti Marlon Vera meaning that he is a guy who has historically underperformed his metrics. You would expect a guy with those types of striking metrics to have a better record than 3-8 in his last 11 fights. 

The reason for McGee’s underperformance relative to his striking metrics is simple. McGee doesn’t finish fights and he doesn’t get knockdowns or knockouts. He has not finished a fight since 2010, which has spanned 20 fights. He has also never landed a knockout in his UFC career which has spanned 22 fights. Furthermore, he has two knockdowns in his UFC career which has spanned 59 rounds.

When you aren’t getting finishes or landing knockdowns, you simply are in danger of never clearly winning fights. You are also just in danger of losing striking rounds if your opponent lands a hard shot. McGee’s lack of finishing ability and power will always be my biggest issue with him. He also has a terrible chin and is randomly getting hurt or knocked out now.

I do think the best part of McGee’s game is his defensive grappling. He is a very underrated wrestler in general. He has never been submitted in his pro career which has spanned 33 fights. He defends takedowns at a decent 69 percent, but he scrambles up very well and is hard to control on the mat. Sean Brady, who is a good wrestler that generally controls his opponents, only controlled McGee for 42 seconds on two takedowns landed. He completely shut down Ramiz Brahimaj’s grappling as well.

McGee is also a decent offensive wrestler. He is not great, but he is capable. He lands 1.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and can absolutely ride top position if he tires opponents out.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think McGee is a bit better as a wrestler so I do think he could maybe land a takedown or two and I don’t think Means can do much to McGee on the mat.

I also think the striking could be competitive from a metric perspective. I don’t know if either guy will completely pull away on the numbers.

However, I favor Means a bit because he has a bit more power than McGee. I also just hate how McGee reacts to strikes. Even when he isn’t getting knocked out, he just reacts poorly to getting hit so I think that could help Means.

Furthermore, even though both of these guys have suspect durability. I think Means is more likely to hurt McGee than vice versa. Means has been getting knocked out by very dangerous fighters and is now facing McGee who has literally never knocked anyone out in the UFC. McGee on the other hand has been getting hurt and knocked out by everyone and Means does have some power.

So I will go with Means mostly because I think he is more likely to win by knockout. This is a really sketchy fight between two aging veterans though.

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On DraftKings, this is another pretty gross fight as we have two old veterans who have both been getting knocked out a lot recently.

Despite that, the fight is -165 to go the distance and that’s my primary concern.

Means is priced up to 9k and I have to imagine he’d need a KO to contend for the optimal. I just don’t expect massive volume or much wrestling equity, though maybe he could land 1-2 tds with limited control.

Means is +220 to win ITD which is not super strong, but there’s some viability to it. McGee has been KOd in RD 1 in two of his last three losses, so it’s more of a narrative thing.

Having some exposure to Means based on that narrative makes sense. I also don’t expect him to be very popular at this price tag, and he may even be semi-contrarian. I also don’t fully trust him to go out there and KO McGee, and I prefer a few other fighters nearby.

Means is a high-upside target but his questionable path to a ceiling concerns me enough to use him more as a secondary target or pricing pivot.

McGee at 7.2k is viable.

He’s hard to prioritize but Means has also been hurt a bunch recently. It’s hard to count on that from a fighter who never wins by TKO and has a +425 ITD line, but there’s some KD upside on paper.

McGee can also grapple. I doubt he does a whole lot with it but he could mx in 2-3 takedowns with some control in a win. I still question his ceiling but at 7k, considering the other options on this slate, that might be enough for McGee to contend with the optimal.

I’d sort of put McGee in a tier of his own where paying up a bit more can get you more win equity, and paying down gets you the ultimate scrub options. McGee can probably hang around, maybe win a close decision, and at 7k, he has some viability for price savings.

I won’t end up highly exposed to McGee, but I’d mix a bit of him in and may have some even with a limited portfolio, just to avoid the dreaded opening prelim fade sweat.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Means by Decision (Confidence=Low)