UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano (1/18/25)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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MAIN CARD

Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano

Fight Odds: 

Odds to end ITD: 

DraftKings Salaries: Makhachev 9.4k, Moicano 8.7k

Weight Class: 155

The main event between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan was cancelled around 11am PST Friday with Tsarukyan pulling out due to injury, and the UFC is bringing in Renato Moicano to take Tsarukyan’s place. My assumption as of writing is that Beneil Dariush, who was supposed to fight Moicano, is now off the card.

I will leave the other write-ups below, but my first thought on the new main event is that I don’t expect it to be very competitive. I don’t think Moicano can defend the takedowns of Makhachev.

Moicano defends takedowns at 72% and hasn’t faced many strong wrestlers in recent years. Dos Anjos was able to take him down five times on 15 attempts, and he earned 13:22 minutes of control over 25 minutes, though Moicano took that fight on short notice. Drew Dober also took Moicano down once on two attempts, and landed some pretty vicious ground-and-pound on him, so that’s a bad sign.

Moicano is an elite submission grappler but he excels at taking weaker grapplers down, taking their backs and locking up the RNC. He’s not necessarily a guard player. I do think his submission skill will allow him to extend the fight for a while, but I don’t really see him being a threat from the bottom.

It feels like a pretty good chance that Makhachev is able to wear him down and beat him up from top position. I wouldn’t be surprised by a TKO or submission stoppage along the way. Or just many clear rounds of takedowns and control.

On the feet, Moicano is at least live to win as he’s a competent kickboxer and throws strikes at a reasonable volume. He could kick Makhachev from distance and evade. It’s possible he could win rounds with this style.

However, he’s not a very damaging striker in general and would likely need to hurt Makhachev to really change the dynamic of the fight, and he’s only secured one KD in his entire career. Moicano also takes a ton of damage and I think it’s quite possible Makhachev could hurt him in boxing exchanges.

Regardless, that would still need to occur before Makhachev decides to wrestle. Once Makhachev starts his wrestling process I just don’t see Moicano being able to stop him. Odds aren’t out yet as of this moment but I expect Makhachev to be a far wider favorite than he was against Tsarukyan.

I will pick the fight to extend for a few rounds and possibly for the full 25 minute distance, but even in that instance, I would expect Makhachev to be comfortably winning with top control and ground-and-pound.

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On DraftKings, I assume both sides will retain their original prices with Makhachev at 9.4k and Moicano at 8.7k. This makes Makhachev a far better option than I originally expected, and it makes Moicano nearly unplayable outside of the leverage equation.

Makhachev is going to project for 5+ takedowns now over the course of 25 minutes, and he could easily surpass 10-15 minutes of control, with the ability to land lots of ground strikes in that span. I don’t think he will have an elite finishing prop, but it may not matter as much for fantasy purposes as he should have an easier path to accrue points.

I now expect Makhachev to be even more popular than he was going to be in his original matchup, and I now consider him truly one of the best overall targets on this slate. I am fine to prioritize him outright at 9.4k due to the floor/ceiling combination.

I still think there is merit to pivoting in this top end. Almeida is a great target, and we have the other championship option in Nurmagomedov, as well as grappling/finishing threats like Dawson/Guskov/Sopaj/etc. The price point itself is still high and there’s still paths for Makhachev to win comfortably and not score 120 points.

However, I think the path to an easy win and a bigger score is much more viable with this new matchup, and I will likely aim to have moderate-heavy exposure to Makhachev overall.

Moicano is only viable at 8.7k as a leverage target. He’ll be a huge underdog with little hope of accruing points. He can land some strikes and he’ll have mild KO/SUB equity but not a lot of it. He should be pretty low owned as well, and there’s still variance in fighting. I just don’t see this is a favorable matchup in any capacity and he’ll be $1500 overpriced. I’d rather play Reese as an 8.8k dog than Moicano as an 8.7k dog, for example.

More notes to come in the slate summary which I will post later this afternoon after things get sorted. I’ll get to projections shortly as well.

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Original Breakdown

The pound-for-pound #1 Islam Makhachev is back in action this week, as he’ll take on a familiar foe in rising star Arman Tsarukyan for the lightweight championship.

Tsarukyan famously fought Makhachev in his UFC debut in 2019, where he became the first man to take Makhachev down. Though he lost the decision, it was clear then where Makhachev’s trajectory was headed, and it seemed likely Tsarukyan would eventually climb the rankings as well.

Since that time, Makhachev has won nine consecutive fights, adding to his now historic 26-1 pro record, which includes four championship victories. Tsarukyan has won 9/10, only losing to Mateusz Gamrot in a five-round bout that most felt he deserved to win.

This is a brilliant fight and a well-deserved rematch for Tsarukyan who could someday be the king of this division – maybe that day will be Saturday.

Tsarukyan is a high-level wrestler who has averaged 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, and that has been the most clear avenue for his success. Most simply won’t be able to defend those takedowns, in which case, Tsarukyan will earn many minutes of top control and land some vicious ground-and-pound that has led him to a few TKO stoppages.

Additionally, Tsarukyan is a competent enough striker to give him a path to victory while standing as well. He’s earned three knockdowns in his past seven fights, and has a recent standing KO over Beneil Dariush who is also competing on this card.

Tsarukyan lands 3.79 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 1.84 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate, which is very strong in terms of differentials. Purely at distance, he’s landing 5.0 strikes per minute while absorbing 2.8 for a +2.2 differential – very strong.

There just aren’t many areas of the game where opponents are going to have clear success, and throughout a pretty large sample of UFC matchups, most opponents have had little to no success.

Unfortunately for Tsarukyan, Islam Makhachev’s claim on the #1 P4P spot will be hard to break, and there’s a pretty decent argument to make that while Tsarukyan is outstanding in most areas of the fight, Makhachev is still better.

Makhachev is a better wrestler than Tsarukyan, and that’s been the key to his success throughout his UFC career as well. He lands 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and he’s only been taken down 2x, with one of those coming to Tsarukyan in 2019.

Makhachev is a great scrambler, a great control wrestler, and he has a much higher level submission game than Tsarukyan. Most simply won’t be able to compete with this wrestling and grappling base.

In recent years, we’ve also seen dramatic growth in Makhachev’s stand-up to the point where he just outclassed Dustin Poirier at distance over 25 minutes in his most recent win. Prior to that, Makhachev knocked Alexander Volkanovski out cold in the first round, who was the primary challenger for his P4P #1 spot.

I still do think Makhachev is vulnerable in striking exchanges. He’s less comfortable there, and there is far more variance at play in striking exchanges than in grappling exchanges. Plus, his only career loss which came in 2015 was a first-round KO.

So although I consider Makhachev a very skilled striker, it’s still a spot where he may eat shots, and may get hurt.

I do wonder how much striking we’ll get between Makhachev and Tsarukyan this weekend, because we did not get much in the first matchup.

In the first matchup, they mostly wrestled. Tsarukyan attempted 12 takedowns in 15 minutes which is a pretty insane pace, and he failed on 11 of them. Despite the one successful takedown landed, Makhachev did scramble free and only allowed 1:47 of control over those 15 minutes.

Conversely, Makhachev landed four takedowns on nine attempts for 6:06 of control.

At distance – this is pretty hilarious – Tsarukyan only landed six strikes and Makhachev only landed four. Neither man eclipsed 15 significant strikes in 15 minutes. It was just a wrestling match which was highly entertaining, and also exhausting.

Nearly six years later, I do think both will be more willing to stand and trade than they were in the last matchup, and I do think that’s a benefit to Tsarukyan, only in the sense that it’s still going to be incredibly difficult to have success on the mat.

He may still try. It wasn’t long ago where he attempted 21 takedowns in 15 minutes against Ismagulov. Tsarukyan can still wrestle at an insane pace and he’s physical enough and technical enough to maybe get Makhachev down once or twice. The issue really becomes whether he’s able to do anything with those takedowns, which I find pretty unlikely.

Makhachev may not force the grappling exchanges immediately, but as the fight progresses, I think he can gain momentum and have more success. Tsarukyan was taken down 2x in round four and 2x in round five against Gamrot in 2022, and he lost that fight because of it. He looked a bit tired during those championship rounds and I think it may be more difficult for him to hold Makhachev off.

I’m still uncertain how much success Makhachev will have in total. He had Tsarukyan briefly mounted in the first contest but didn’t really threaten too much on the mat. There’s a reasonable chance he can gain control at times, but he may not really land damaging strikes or threaten with submissions.

As far as the striking exchanges, this could very well be competitive. Makhachev lands 3.5 distance strikes per minute while absorbing 2.5 per minute for a +1.0 differential. It’s still very strong but Tsarukyan should be able to keep up with his pace.

I think Tsarukyan’s power could be a factor and I think he could hurt Makhachev, though that outcome isn’t extremely likely. Makhachev could hurt him too.

The issue is just that neither man really absorbs strikes, which has always been another point I’ve harped on for Makhachev’s sake. How can you beat him if you can’t hit him or take him down? He currently absorbs 1.54 sig. strikes per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate.

So if we do get striking exchanges, I’ll expect them to be calculated, and more geared toward defensive measures than offensive ones. Either man could edge out rounds, but I’d probably lean Makhachev over the course of 25 minutes due to his experience.

Similarly, I just have to lean toward Makhachev overall. He’s an elite defensive fighter, and he’s becoming an elite offensive one as well. Tsarukyan may do a great job to neutralize him here but I’m still not sure he can neutralize him enough to the point of a victory, and the longer the fight goes, the more the fight may favor Makhachev.

I will pick Makhachev to take a semi-competitive but comfortable decision, leaning into his striking early and probably leaning more on the wrestling late (just a guess). I think Tsarukyan will prove to be a fun test though and I’m hopeful for some more crazy scrambles while the two are fresh.

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On DraftKings, this is an interesting predicament with Makhachev priced at 9.4k on a 14-fight slate that also carries another championship fight on the card.

Makhachev has one of the highest ceilings on the entire slate given his profile, but this isn’t necessarily the matchup where I’d expect him to achieve a ceiling.

Against Tsarukyan the first time, Makhachev scored 73 points in a three-round decision. If we extrapolate that out, it puts Makhachev around 101 DK points in a five-round decision, which I don’t think would be enough.

In other matchups, we’ve seen Makhachev score 131, 126, 120 and 117, so a big score is certainly still in play. And over five rounds in a win, I’d consider Makhachev to have among the very best floor’s on the entire slate.

It just comes down to how much offense he produces, and producing offense against Tsarukyan is a tougher challenge than against most others. He landed four takedowns in the first fight, but I don’t think we’ll see him double that output in this matchup. However, another 4-6 takedowns feels reasonable.

I’d also expect a lot more significant strikes from Makhachev, coming off a career high where he landed 88. Maybe another 80 is in play here. However, 80 ss + 4 TDs + 8 minutes of control still puts him in the 95-100 point range.

At 9.4k, I honestly don’t think you have to force in Makhachev this week in large field tournaments. It will be a risk, and I do expect him to be popular. If he scores 100 or 105 you’re not going to complain. But this is a stacked range and I’d likely want 120+ to feel really comfortable about his chances of landing on the optimal.

Makhachev is only +170 to win ITD so I’m not necessarily expecting a quick finish. I do think he could still get to the optimal with additional takedowns, and more control and ground strikes than I’m expecting, but I just don’t think it’s close to a lock either.

Given that he’ll be a popular play this week, I won’t mind pivoting directly to someone else in this 9k range in larger fields, though Makhachev will always be in consideration and should come away with a fine result in a vacuum if he gets his hand raised.

Tsarukyan at 6.8k feels really cheap, especially for his level of talent.

He gave it his all against Makhachev in the first fight though, and only scored 23 points, which would have been 53 points in a win. Obviously if he beats Makhachev on Saturday he’ll score more than that, but Makhachev’s defensive skills really limit Tsarukyan’s floor/ceiling.

This, and the fact that he’s a pretty heavy dog, are going to make me lean against targeting much Tsarukyan this weekend.

He’s of course viable as a standard, five-round, secondary target. He can wrestle and land a couple of takedowns. He has minor KO equity. His floor is pretty solid due to the five-round potential, compared to most others in this range.

I just don’t know how often he wins or is really able to produce a lot of offense. He’s +550 to win ITD which is pretty poor. He makes more sense as a floor target than a ceiling one.

Really, I don’t think Tsarukyan is a major target of mine this week. I’d like a low-end secondary sprinkle of him for the five rounds and wrestling potential, but I don’t really expect it to come to fruition and so I’d rather spread my exposure out in this range and attack some of the lesser known names and less challenging matchups.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Makhachev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Fight Odds: Nurmagomedov -268, Dvalishvili +221

Odds to end ITD: +175

DraftKings Salaries: Nurmagomedov 9.2k, Dvalishivli 7k

Weight Class: 135

The Nurmagomedov camp is on full display this weekend as Umar Nurmagomedov will attempt to become yet another UFC champion from this high-profile team, as he’ll take on current champ Merab Dvalishvili for the bantamweight strap.

Nurmagomedov is 18-0 professionally with six wins in the UFC, including a recent main event victory over Cory Sandhagen.

Umar, like his cousin Khabib and training partner Makhachev, is an elite wrestler. He’s landed 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes and is currently defending at 100 percent.

We saw though in the fight against Sandhagen, that Nurmagomedov is more developed as a striker than many believed as well. He went the full 25 minute distance with Sandhagen, outlanding him at range 96 to 71.

Sandhagen may not be the most dangerous fighter in the division but he’s very well-rounded and competent, and Umar largely outclassed him over five rounds. This upcoming challenge against Merab will be a completely new one though.

What can I say about Merab Dvalishvili that I haven’t yet said? He’s a once in a generation type athlete who’s shown an absurd wrestling and cardio pace that nobody has been able to keep up with.

We got great odds on Merab to beat Sean O’Malley last September and he came through, landing six takedowns and earning 10 minutes of control to dethrone O’Malley as the champion. It’s nothing new for Merab.

He averages 6.09 takedowns per 15 minutes and we’ve seen him top out at 13, 12, 11 and 11 takedowns throughout various fights. He is aggressive, physical, and largely unstoppable in that regard.

Furthermore, Merab has proven that he’s not some liability on the feet either. At distance, he’s landing 4.6 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.3 for a +1.3 differential.

I would not consider Merab to be the most technical striker in the division, nor is he the most technical wrestler, but he attempts a ton of offense and has the cardio and physicality to wear opponents down over the duration.

That’s why even in matchups where he’s clearly outclassed from a technical standpoint, it hasn’t mattered. Many considered Petr Yan the best boxer in the UFC but Merab not only took him down 11 times, but outlanded him at distance 129 to 66. Yan could do nothing but play defense and did not have the cardio or energy to keep Merab off of him.

Stylistically, this is one of the toughest matchups in the sport, and Merab will yet again find himself a heavy underdog against a more technical opponent in Nurmagomedov.

I struggle a bit to analyze this one because Umar is still young in his career. He’s fought 1-2 quality opponents, and literally nobody that compares to Merab. Yes, he was able to take down Cory Sandhagen five times, but that has almost no meaning as to how it may relate to the wrestling exchanges against Merab.

One of my past concerns with Umar is that he’s not the most physical presence. He’s not a bad athlete, but he’s not a dominating force. He’s not a major power threat. I wonder (out loud) how he will deal with the aggressive wrestling tactics of Merab.

The conclusion I’ve come to is that Merab will be most vulnerable if he gives up his back. He is so aggressive that he can be a bit sloppy at times, and Umar is the better submission grappler of the two. If Merab isn’t careful, he’ll expose his back and allow Umar to control him or threaten for a RNC.

We haven’t really seen Merab in these positions though so I’m not sure how well he will fight out of them. I think Umar could prove to us he’s just that good – and may find a submission along the way. Or not.

Umar himself has never been taken down in the UFC and there aren’t a ton of grappling exchanges from him outside the UFC. So it’s sort of an impossible task to predict.

My guess is that Merab’s pacing and physical wrestling game may actually be successful over the duration. On a single shot, I would bet Umar defends. If Merab is attempting 25+ attempts in 25 minutes, he probably will land a few takedowns.

I still don’t know if he can actually control Umar and I would guess he cannot to the point of domination or threatening a finish, but he may be able to wear Umar down.

Either way, there’s a good chance that both fighters are strong enough in the wrestling department to create some sort of neutralization where the fight is then determined by the striking exchanges.

On the feet, Umar is more technical and probably the better distance striker. He has a pretty decent kicking game and could easily use that to outpoint Merab. But he’s not a major damage threat, so I don’t know how easy he is going to pull away.

Merab can kick too, and is arguably more powerful than Umar. Two fights ago, Umar was dropped very early in the first round and although he recovered, I do wonder whether he’s going to be the type to take damage well, or whether we’ll see him cracked again.

Regardless, I would probably lean toward Umar on the feet but not by a huge margin, and it’s not as if Merab is just going to sit there for five rounds. He’ll mix in 5 takedown attempts per round too, potentially.

I’m open to the idea that Umar will look great and easily win this fight but based on the data we have, it’s hard to be that confident. What I am confident in is that Merab is a beast and will be in his face for five rounds. There’s no real comparisons to Merab’s game and Umar hasn’t proven he’s elite enough to easily pass this test.

So the odds feel a bit wide to me all things considered. I’m really looking forward to seeing how it plays out. I’ll pick Umar to win a close decision with a bit more technique round by round but I wouldn’t be shocked if the wrestling pace of Merab is enough to make things interesting.

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On DraftKings, this will be a pivotal matchup as it is one of two five-round fights on the slate.

Like the main event, I think there’s a pretty decent argument to make that neither fighter is a must roster.

Merab is the easier side to analyze because he has some of the highest upside of any fighter in the sport today. In wins, he’s scored 167, 164, 148, 137 and 136 DK points, to name a few. Most fighters will never reach 130+ in their career.

So at 7k, yeah I want some exposure to Merab. He could be fighting Jon Jones and I’d still probably want a sprinkle because if Merab wins, there’s a pretty strong chance he smashes.

Obviously this is a difficult matchup for him compared to others he’s won, and he’s a sizable underdog. If he loses, he likely won’t be optimal. I say “likely” because he’s also scored 99 and 73 in his two LOSSES, which both came in three-round fights. 

This fight is -215 to go the full distance and although Merab likely won’t reach a ceiling, his floor should still be pretty strong. He’s at least viable as a punt option in all formats due to the floor and potential competitive nature of the fight.

I think I will likely use him as a standard secondary tournament target as well, again, due to the upside. I’m skeptical that he actually deserves to be this heavy of an underdog and there may actually be some line value on his price. At 7k, he’s super cheap and allows you to pay up for whomever you like.

It’s probably smart to be cautious though as he’ll likely gain popularity, and is still likely to miss the optimal lineup in a loss. It wouldn’t be a crazy strategy to just bank on him losing, and invest instead in lower owned fighters nearby who have easier matchups.

Umar is the tougher call at 9.2k. In wins in the UFC, he’s scored 112, 105, 105, 114, 118 and 109, which came in his most recent five-rounder.

It’s a pretty decent scorecard and like Makhachev, I’d say Umar has a pretty strong floor in a win. At 9.2k, he can be played moderately due to that floor and theoretical ceiling.

However, three of those wins came ITD and he’s only +205 to win ITD here. Nobody has taken Merab down more than 2x in a fight, and former Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo only took him down once.

While Umar has 5-6 takedown upside in his profile, I’m not certain he gets that many in this matchup. He may land 2-4 which would simply limit his ceiling. He may also have to spend time defending, which means less time producing offense.

Sean O’Malley and Petr Yan, two of the best strikers in the division were only able to land 47 and 75 sig. strikes against Merab respectively. Umar may land more but I’m not convinced he even reaches 100.

So 90 significant strikes and three takedowns would only result in a mid 90s score, and that’s probably not enough at 9.2k on a 14-fight slate. Like Makhachev, I’m guessing Umar will be very popular and he could even be more popular with a $200 discount.

Not playing both championship fights in one lineup is surely one path to take to be more unique than the field, and playing neither championship fight, hoping both favorites win and underperform a bit is probably an extreme way to be unique. I would normally hate that route because these championship favorites are so strong, but they are both fighting uniquely difficult matchups that may limit their offensive production.

So although I like Umar a lot in general, and may still end up with moderate exposure to him by default, I don’t consider him a must in large-fields. 

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill

Fight Odds: Hill -129, Prochazka +112

Odds to end ITD: -275

DraftKings Salaries: Hill 8.2k, Prochazka 8k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a highly anticipated matchup here in the light heavyweight division between former champions Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka. These guys have been scheduled to face each other multiple times but injuries have prevented the fight from happening. This one should be an absolute banger, and I am excited to see it this weekend.

Hill is a very good fighter, and I think people may have forgotten how good he is because he has caused some drama outside of the cage in recent years by being a controversial personality.

Hill is a volume striker who also has power to put people out cold. Hill lands a whopping 7.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.51 in return. He has some fantastic straight punches and is super comfortable letting his hands go. He is very accurate and can land consistently. I consider his straight punches and his jab his bread and butter. He can just batter opponents.

Hill also has some other sneaky tools in his striking game. He has some underrated leg kicks and a head kick as well. He landed both against Glover Teixeira multiple times, and nearly knocked Glover out with a head kick two separate times. He also has a very good counter hook when his opponents rush in. I also just like Hill’s overall volume and cardio. He can fight at a high pace for three rounds.

Hill is also a decent defensive grappler and actually outgrappled Glover at times. He defends takedowns at a solid 73 percent and is capable of floating on top if need be. He doesn’t wrestle offensively though and he hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC.

I think my main concern with Hill is that he can be hit to a degree. He is aggressive and only defends strikes at 46 percent, and was recently knocked out by Alex Pereira. So him getting randomly knocked out is in play as it is with any fighter. Pereira has elite power though and honestly Hill was competing perfectly fine until the knockout occurred. I have generally considered Hill pretty durable though and I will continue to think that until he gets knocked out by lesser competition than Pereira.

Hill will be taking on Jiri Prochazka. Prochazka is a wild man, and is a very dangerous fighter and a serious knockout threat. He basically relies on putting a pace on fighters, tiring them out or overwhelming them and then finishing them. He understands he needs to do this to win fights as well, and takes advantage of his KO power and pace. I do respect Jiri’s ability to beat good competition. He is a very dangerous guy and is creative at landing his offense.

Jiri can grapple a little bit. He lands 0.72 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 68 percent. I don’t consider him a good grappler but he is physical and semi-competent.

The issue is Jiri isn’t actually that skillful and is a defensive liability on the feet. He lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.59 in return, and defends strikes at a shockingly bad 39 percent. This guy absorbs more strikes than he lands and is a legitimate punching bag until his opponents tire out. 

Jiri is 4-2 in the UFC fighting great competition. The issue is that in all four fights that he has won, he was badly hurt and nearly finished. He was knocked out in his two losses. So he has been finished or nearly finished in every UFC fight. I just don’t trust a process of fighting that basically relies on getting beaten up and tiring an opponent out or landing a knockout. When Jiri’s chin goes, he is going to be in trouble and he was badly beaten up by Pereira which I didn’t like seeing.

I still do respect Jiri’s game though. In his four wins, it wasn’t as if he was losing and then randomly landed a lucky knockout. There was a clear pivot in all four of those fights and he started actually winning all four of those fights. So there is some process. There is just a lot of risk in relying on getting beaten up to tire opponents out though.

That is also the issue I see in this matchup vs Hill for Jiri. Hill actually has good cardio and Hill may just beat the crap out of Jiri, not tire out like previous Jiri opponents, and continue to beat up Jiri for all three rounds or knock Jiri dead. That is honestly what I am leaning towards happening. Hill is clearly a more technical striker with way better metrics. For comparison purposes, Hill outlanded Glover 188-65 at distance while Jiri outlanded Glover 76-45 and most of those strikes landed for Jiri came when Glover was hurt.

So I am leaning towards Hill because he is the superior statistical and technical striker and he probably has the cardio, volume, and power to make Jiri pay for Jiri’s take-a-beating type of style. I doubt grappling will come into play here as Hill never attempts takedowns and is a solid defensive wrestler.

I still am not bulletproof confident here. Hill can be hit a bit and Jiri is seriously dangerous. I could see Jiri knocking Hill out. It wouldn’t shock me at all. I still think Jiri is finish or bust though and Hill generally seems durable. Also, even if Jiri does win, I still think he is going to get lit up at some point. Hill is just so accurate and Jiri’s defense is non-existent. So I will go with Hill here as I trust his process more than Jiri’s.

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On DraftKings, this is certainly a matchup that will come into play with Hill priced at 8.2k and Prochazka priced at 8k.

The fight itself is -275 to end inside the distance which means pretty strong finishing equity overall, and therefore the winner of this matchup could easily fit into the optimal lineup with mid-range prices.

Hill is my preferred target at 8.2k, as I just consider him the better technical striker, and especially the superior defensive striker. I also think his cardio and volume are superior to Jiri’s, and he simply has more offensive upside in the matchup overall.

However, it’s a high-variance matchup. Prochazka is unorthodox and dangerous, and there’s just a lot of variance in general in striking exchanges. Plus, Hill was just knocked out in his last matchup so even if he’s winning this fight cleanly, it could still only take one shot.

I do think Hill is more likely to hurt Prochazka than vice versa, and he’ll just have an easier time landing head strikes as Jiri doesn’t really defend them with a guard. So I’ll be higher on Hill in the matchup overall.

Hill’s ITD line here is only +165 though, whereas Prochazka’s is +130, and ultimately we’re going to need a win ITD for either side to be optimal. Even if Hill lands 120 sig. strikes and wins a decision, that’s only 78 DK points.

That’s also the risk on both sides. While the fight is likely to end ITD, it’s not a guarantee to end quickly. And as both sides could be popular, it’s certainly worth pivoting away at times because there is not a guarantee that someone gets hurt early.

It’s still just a very easy fight to lean on in tournaments, given the theoretical upside and matchup dynamic. And there really isn’t even a wrong answer as to which side you go. You could simply split your exposure between the two as well.

I like Hill more and he’s a quality tournament target who I wouldn’t mind being overweight on. I’ll likely be underweight on Prochazka if these two are projected similarly with ownership.

Having moderate exposure overall and leaning slightly in either direction is probably the safest course.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hill by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

Fight Odds: Moicano -164, Dariush +141

Odds to end ITD: -140

DraftKings Salaries: Moicano 8.7k, Dariush 7.5k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Beneil Dariush is a long time UFC vet entering his 12th year with the promotion. But with experience comes age as he’s 35 years old and coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career – he’s 16-6-1 in the UFC and 22-6-1 as a pro. Renato Moicano is also entering his 12th year with the promotion at 35 years old but is currently riding a four-fight win streak – he’s 12-5 in the UFC and 20-5-1 as a pro.

The striking component:

Dariush has always had underrated striking and trains out of Kings MMA under Master Rafael Cordeiro. His metrics aren’t great but slightly above the divisional average, landing 3.8 SLpM at 49% and 4.9 DLpM at 43%.     

He’s also a southpaw who really likes that big straight left hand, rear body kick and has a solid clinch game as well. He can be over aggressive at times and a bit reckless though, which has worked to his benefit and detriment in scoring KO’s or being KO’d/hurt himself.

Only three of his 16 UFC come via KO/TKO, but he also has seven knockdowns (three of which came in his last five wins) and he does hit hard. He defends strikes at 58% but only eats 2.6 per minute which isn’t bad statistically. If you actually watch his fights though, he’s very defensively liable on the feet at points as he can throw himself into the fire.     

I’ve seen him eat bombs in a handful of fights, but he’s ultimately been KO’d in five of his six pro losses. In his defense, many of the KOs have been absolute nukes that would have floored most guys.

But Dariush has still gotten the better of the exchanges in most of his fights, resulting in his positive +1/min distance differential.  

Overall, he’s not the prettiest or cleanest striker in the world but is good on the feet – his durability is of obvious concern at this point though.

Despite moving up in the semi-recent past, Moicano is still a long guy for the division, standing 5’11” with a 72” reach. In that, he likes to fight from the outside and uses a lot of lateral movement but we have seen him pressure a bit more in recent years.     

His core competency is in his straight punches where he’s got some pop in his shots, but isn’t a power guy with no pro wins via KO at distance. Statistically, he lands 4.4 SLpM at 49% and 5.5 DLpM at 46%. In 12 of his fights that have seen a 2nd round, he’s out landed seven opponents at distance.    

The looming issue with Moicano has been his durability, being KO’d in three of his last four losses. To his credit, all to higher level strikers but nonetheless, still of concern.     

He can leave his head on the center line after throwing combos and can rely on slipping punches. But the shots he got put down with, specifically in the Fiziev and TKZ fights, would have put down most guys.     

Numerically, his numbers aren’t terrible though, eating 3.6 SApM at 60% and 4.5 DApM at 64%. Despite getting KO’d by those guys before, he has fared well against other bigger hitters in Stephens, Kattar, Herbert and Hernandez.  

He also took the shots of Dober who’s a perennial KO artist, albeit he got buckled a handful of times and had the grappling to bail himself out. He was also dropped with a head kick by RDA.    

He was saved by the bell against Turner where he got rocked badly at the end of the 1st round by Turner, who tried to walk off for the win – one of the dumbest fight IQ decisions I’ve seen in a minute.

Most recently, Saint-Denis won the 2nd round via striking but Moicano also dislocated his collar bone which probably played a bit of a role.  

Overall, Moicano’s a capable striker in totality if he can stay conscious but despite not being KO’d since 2020, he’s been hurt in numerous other fights. 

How it plays out: The striking is interesting here for a handful of reasons. The pros on the Moicano side are that his metrics are slightly better and he’s the “cleaner” guy in terms of what he’s throwing. Both guys have documented durability issues, more recently for Dariush but also against Oliveria and Tsarukyan who are two of the best fighters in the division. The pros for Dariush are that he’s a superior kicker and clinch striker than Moicano and he objectively hits harder. Dariush has seven knockdowns to Moicano’s one in the UFC. It’s also interesting to note that despite Moicano’s recent run, he’s been hurt by three different southpaws in RDA, Dober and Turner – two left hands and a kick – both of Dariush’s best weapons. The striking is close but I lean Dariush on damage upside.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Dariush is a higher-level black belt and is a respectable wrestler to boot where his ground game has played a larger factor in his career success.

He grinded out Moises (another high-level black belt), got some good ground time on Dober and subbed him, ran Camacho on the ground, back-packed Klose for the entirety of the 1st round, has now out-wrestled CDF twice to decision wins (another high-level black belt) and drudged Tony Ferguson on the mat. He also outwrestled Jim Miller back in the day and subbed Tony Martin who is also a black belt.   

Throughout his career, the only guy to really have any grappling success on him was Chiesa back in 2016 where he made a small mistake and got submitted.    

But even in Dariush’s fight against Gamrot who’s a good wrestler and fellow black belt, Dariush stuffed 15/19 shots and was only controlled for two minutes – pretty impressive. Statistically, he lands 1.9 TDs per 15 minutes at 34%, stuffs at 81% and is in control time positions 82% of the time his fights are spent grappling. 

Overall, Dariush is a top five ground fighter in this division and it’s going to take an elite talent to best him on the floor.

Moicano’s a solid BJJ black belt and has finished six of his 12 UFC wins via submission.      

He’s not necessarily consistent to wrestle given certain style matchups but he does land 1.9 TDs per 15 minutes at 44%. I more so attribute his lack of willingness to wrestle to the quality of defense of some of the guys he’s fought, like Fiziev, Jung, Aldo, Kattar, etc. Not to mention he’s had standing advantages over a handful of guys as well – his numbers need to be put into that context.      

But he has been consistent to wrestle in the spots where it’s been advantageous for him to do so. When he’s committed to shots and that’s the game plan he’s pursuing, he’s getting guys down.     

When on the ground, his top game is high level between technical passing, transitions, positional control and a dangerous sub game. 

Despite referencing his top game, multiple opponents have worked up under him before, but he’s been persistent. He did get submitted by Ortega which was more a fight IQ thing with Moicano – we also know that Ortega is one of the more dangerous grapplers in the UFC as well.     

He did get outwrestled by RDA, but not a ton of shame given the circumstance – although RDA took him down three times and got six minutes of control through the first 10 minutes when Moicano was perceivably the freshest, which can’t be ignored.

Dober also took him down once in the 2nd round and Moicano didn’t work up, also eating GNP – not a great look.

So, despite him stuffing TDs at 72% (pretty respectable mark), he hasn’t been proactively wrestled much and hasn’t looked great on the bottom the most recent times he’s been there.

Overall though, he’s a very well-rounded, higher-level guy on the floor that opponents don’t want on top of them.

How it plays out: The floor is also interesting here given how high-level both guys are on the mat and the amount of success they’ve had in their respective careers. I think Moicano is a bit better transitionally as a grappler, but Dariush is also probably the best overall ground fighter Moicano has fought who’s very difficult to not only take down but hold down. While I highly rate Moicano’s ground game, the guys he’s out grappled in the UFC aren’t of the same level as Dariush and have also been primary base strikers in fact. So, on the flip side of the coin, what happens if Dariush is able to get Moicano down? As noted, I don’t like how Moicano has looked on the bottom the last two times he’s been put there. So, it’s a weird dynamic to analyze generally but also in how much both guys are actually going to pursue. I do think Moicano is the more likely party to shoot though. There’s theoretical upside to both.

I love this fight as I’ve been a fan of both guys over the years in what they bring to the table so in putting them together, it’s just a great matchup stylistically. Despite the skid of Dariush and the winning streak of Moicano, to me, this is a very high-variance fight where I don’t know how anyone could be really confident in a side. With that, I’m going to take Dariush for the upset because I think his skillset and historic body of work poses some pretty large issues to Moicano here. Maybe Dariush’s chin is completely dust and Moicano gets his first distance-based KO of his career, or finds the back at some point, but Dariush is a really tricky matchup for him and I think he’s getting slept on this week.

—

On DraftKings, I definitely think there’s potential for this fight to score well, though both fighters are very high-level and may possibly neutralize each other as well.

The looming caveat on both sides is the durability – both fighters have suffered brutal knockout losses and are largely considered to have terrible chins. More recently, it’s been Dariush who’s suffered those losses but even in Moicano’s recent wins, as Luke pointed out, Moicano has still been badly hurt.

So just on that basis alone, we might get a knockout. I don’t think Dariush is highly likely to knock Moicano out on skill set alone, and Moicano has never knocked an opponent out at distance, but both men have chin issues and so a KD wouldn’t be a surprise either way. The fight itself is -140 to end ITD.

On the mat, both are elite black belts. I think Dariush is the better wrestler but I’d be pretty surprised if either could sub the other unless they are extremely hurt or tired. So I’m not 100% convinced that we get a dominant finish and a huge DK result.

Dariush is priced down to 7.5k though and despite his recent losses, I think he’s a bit undervalued in this spot and I don’t mind targeting him for win equity purposes. He’s an elite fighter who likely should be 50/50 or better in this matchup outside of the chin issues, and he arguably has more KO power and more wrestling upside of the two.

We’ve also see the betting line move toward him this week which is no surprise, he opened near +200 and is now sitting at +141 or better on most books. He likely will close as a value compared to his DK price tag.

So in that sense, I like Dariush as a value based secondary target who has some KO and wrestling equity to boot. I’m not necessarily counting on a finish at +265 ITD but it’s possible.

Moicano at 8.7k probably just needs an early KO to be optimal which is tricky because that’s not a path he’s ever reached at any point in his UFC career.

In theory, sure he could have grappling success too but Dariush’s recent defensive wrestling/scrambling performance against Gamrot was one of the best displays I’ve ever seen personally – I would not bet on Moicano to have any extended grappling success unless Dariush is hurt. It’s theoretically possible though.

We’ll still get decent volume out of Moicano as well but 100+ significant strikes won’t be enough to be optimal at 8.7k and I sort of doubt he’d reach that type of ceiling anyway. He just needs to hurt Dariush.

Moicano is +165 to win ITD and based on the sheer number of times Dariush has been brutally, and I mean brutally knocked out, it is definitely possible. Moicano is a very competent striker, he’s just not a real power threat typically.

I think it’s fine to roster him as a secondary target in a range where we’re generally lacking options, and that’s the safest route. I would probably lean toward the underweight side if I had to choose just based on historics though.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dariush by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

Fight Odds: De Ridder -109, Holland -105

Odds to end ITD: -200

DraftKings Salaries: Holland 8.3k, De Ridder 7.9k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Kevin Holland is an alum from one of the original seasons of the Contender Series and has been one of the most active fighters on the roster since joining the promotion with many ups and downs – he’s 13-9 in the UFC and 26-12 as a pro. Reinier De Ridder is a newer addition to the UFC roster who made good on his debut back in November after coming over from ONE Championship – he’s 18-2 as a pro.

The striking component:

Holland’s a fun guy to watch on the feet and is very dynamic. He stands 6’3” and has an 81” reach which makes him a lengthy guy not only at 170 but 185 as well.         

He’ll fight out of a karate like side stance (alleged kung fu background lol), is light on his feet and works a blitz striking style. Holland will also use low legs and the oblique (side kick) while at range.         

In terms of his hands, he’s got a great, explosive 1-2 (jab, straight right) but can also throw hooks and uppercuts from weird angles with sting on his shots.         

He also has KO’s but from knees, injury and hammer fists from bottom. But he did floor Buckley with that combo I just mentioned, put down Oliveira with a nicely timed hook, floored Means with a straight leading to the submission, hurt Thompson early, KO’d Ponz late with a hook and caught Chiesa with a straight leading to the submission.       

I don’t think he’s a “pure” power guy but it’s more so his timing, hand speed and shot selection that are on point to hurt opponents.    

Statistically, he’s higher output, landing 4.2 SLpM at 49% and 6.1 DLpM at 45% — his significant numbers are skewed down from wrestling against him. His distance differential also gives you a better picture at +1.5/minute, so he is consistent to outwork his opponents.     

Defensively, he eats 3.3 SApM and defends at 50% and 4.6 DApM at 52% – his defense numbers have dropped pretty considerably after the Thompson/JDM fights.       

Holland can get tagged on entry at times and has eaten some ground-and-pound but has largely been able to roll with shots and block a lot of shots opponents throw regardless of the stats. He’s usually not a guy that’s eating extended combinations.         

Holland is probably live to officially get KO’d one of these days (Thompson fight stopped due to a Holland broken hand and Dolidze with the rib injury) but overall he’s a very talented striker and will be difficult to win extended range exchanges against.

De Ridder is a grappler by base and despite having a decent amount of footage on him, we don’t have a ton of him on the feet outside of some of his recent fights.  

He’s a longer southpaw standing 6’4” with a 79” reach but doesn’t appear to be the most comfortable striker.  

I’ve seen him use the jab and kicks well at times, but he hasn’t displayed any real distance power components with his three striking based finishes, which came via positional TKOs. He’s more so trying to use his striking to keep opponents off him instead of really stringing together consistent offense.  

It was in his fights against Malykhin more recently where he got exposed for not being a very good striker. Malykhin was able to stay upright and apply consistent pressure, putting De Ridder on the back foot for the majority of both their fights.  

Malykhin put it on him in the first contest, knocking him out in the 1st round. De Ridder showed some better survival in the 2nd contest, making it to the 3rd round, but he just got attritionally beat up and gave up in the 3rd round by not answering the referees call to get back to his feet – he was on his way to getting conventionally finished there too.  

He also got buzzed in an early exchange by Khasaev before getting the fight to the mat.

Most recently, despite dropping GM3, he didn’t look very good on the feet in totality.  

Overall, De Ridder’s a grappling dependent fighter so I don’t foresee much success for him standing at the UFC level unless he’s facing a truly incompetent striker – he’s obviously a knockout liability as well.

How it plays out: Holland’s going to have a massive advantage standing here which I think goes without saying. Anytime the fight is standing, Holland is going to be live to nuke him. It really just comes down to how long the fight is there.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Holland is a BJJ black belt under Travis Lutter. But despite his black belt status, he only has three official wins via submission in the UFC, with the first over John Phillips who can’t grapple at all and the last two over Means and Chiesa who he club-and-subbed.    

Holland does have those long limbs though where if opponents are going to shoot sloppy stuff on him, he will threaten with front chokes.         

It’s been the ground that has actually given Holland significant struggles throughout his UFC career as he can be taken down, controlled and will play from his back.         

There are many fights to hit so I’ll keep it brief – he got controlled for nearly 10 minutes by Santos (lost that fight), got into a grappling match with GM3 that he edged on the cards but lost in the grappling, had some success against Allen but it was ultimately his downfall as he lost position and got submitted. Stewart took him down three times and got 4+ minutes of control time (Holland dropped the last round because of this but edged another decision), he was taken down pretty early by Jacare but scored a finish from his back via hammer fists,  he got grinded out by both Brunson and Vettori, he got ran on the floor by Chimaev and recently was controlled for a bulk of the 1st round by Dolidze before the injury.    

But since really putting an emphasis on improving in this realm and going down to 170 (when he was there), he did well with the TDAs from Daukaus and despite being taken down twice on three attempts from Oliveira, he popped up quickly on the 1st but did get his back taken on the 2nd. He was also able to work up under Means and stuffed some really deep shots from Chiesa who is a good wrestler.         

With all of that being said, the floor has primarily been how Holland has either lost fights or been in very closely contested fights.         

Overall, if Holland was more of a threat from bottom, I wouldn’t have as much of an issue but he’s still a struggling defensive wrestler especially against more physically imposing guys at 185.

De Ridder began training in Judo at the age of six and transitioned into jiu-jitsu in his teenage years where he holds a black belt in both disciplines.  

He’s competed in the sport jiu-jitsu world but has been primarily MMA focused. 

In MMA, his wrestling is primarily predicated on body lock trips or inside single legs to which he’s found lots of success.  

When on the ground, he’s shown to be very strong in top positions between his pressure/technical passing in addition to his transitional work and chaining together of submission attempts – 12 of his 17 pro wins have come via submission.  

He excels specifically in taking the back to set up his RNCs but has also shown top side submissions and a nasty inverted triangle – subbed GM3 last time out which was impressive.  

Despite his top game being good, he will be aggressive in attacking at times to where he can lose position – in most cases he’s been able to wrestle his way back on top though.  

Defensively, he hasn’t really been tested much considering his style and opponents looking to stay upright with him.  

He’s fallen off a couple positions where opponents have just stood over him, but nobody’s ever jumped on him so his bottom game within MMA is still questionable.  

However, he did get stuck in a tighter guillotine set up from the standing position against Bigdash, but he was able to eventually fight the hands and work out of it.

Overall, despite De Ridder coming from a lesser-known promotion to the average fan, the guy’s jiu-jitsu and top game is very good which will give him a leg up over many middleweights on the roster.  

How it plays out: Despite Holland’s black belt status, De Ridder is going to have a sizable advantage on the ground. It’s also important to note that De Ridder has fought as high as heavyweight before so he’s going to be a lot physically stronger than Holland, which isn’t great for Holland based on 185 wrestling historics. De Ridder’s also dangerous enough as a submission grappler to where one TD could end the fight.

This fight is about as binary as it comes and you see that reflected in the betting line. I tend to lean towards the grappler in these types of fights and that’s what I’m doing here in De Ridder. However, if he doesn’t get Holland out early, De Ridder has slowed down more than once in extended fights which could leave the door open for Holland if he starts failing on TDs.

—

On DraftKings, this is another mid-range fight that should draw attention due to the matchup dynamics and salary relief.

De Ridder is going to be my preferred target – he just has far more wrestling equity and that’s an ideal path to scoring on DraftKings. Plus, he’s cheaper than Holland at 7.9k versus 8.3k and is currently a slight favorite.

However, I’d be lying if I said I was confident. In fact, I am pretty confident that De Ridder is actually a longterm fade. He is very sloppy, both on the feet and in some grappling exchanges. I hated how easily he lost position against Meerschaert in his last fight and future opponents will make him pay.

The bright side is that he’s going to wrestle, and especially in this matchup, De Ridder needs top position. If he’s going to win at all, it will come with takedowns, control, and potentially a submission.

De Ridder is +225 to win ITD here which is fine for the price, though I’m not particularly confident he can finish Holland. I think it’s just as realistic that he lands 3-4 takedowns and spends 10+ minutes on top of Holland to win a decision. Holland is very inconsistent and has often succumbed to grinding wrestlers at middleweight.

So at 7.9k, I may end up with more exposure to De Ridder than I was planning on. He just scored 110 in his UFC debut, and if he’d won the decision, it still would have been a high 90s result. While that’s not a guarantee to be optimal on a 14-fight slate, I think De Ridder has a strong floor and ceiling given the matchup dynamics. He makes for a strong play at the price tag, and moderate exposure feels correct with the salary relief he provides.

Just know that he may also gain public attention, and he is by no means a lock. He could easily get hurt standing, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if Holland ended up on top of him at some point throwing fight-ending ground-and-pound. While this feels like a good spot overall for fantasy upside, there is plenty of risk.

Holland at 8.3k is less exciting because De Ridder will probably take him down early and limit his offensive production.

If Holland wins, I’m not sure a late comeback performance will be enough at 8.3k. We’ve seen Holland put up mid-round finishes where he’s only scored 88 and 82, for example. I’d really want an early standing KO or a submission, and I’m less confident in those outcomes.

Still, they are possible. Holland is actually +130 to win ITD here which is a lot stronger of a finishing prop than De Ridder has, and he probably will be lower owned coming off an ugly wrestling/injury loss.

Considering Holland may provide leverage against De Ridder, he’s certainly in play. He just will profile as a boom or bust type and will likely need the early finish to compete for the optimal.

I expect to be playing a lot in the mid-range this week and this is one fight that has my attention. While De Ridder is preferred, I will still mix Holland in as I think there’s at least a path for him to find a RD1/RD2 finish.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: De Ridder by Decision (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana

Fight Odds: Guskov -346, Elekana +275

Odds to end ITD: -325

DraftKings Salaries: Guskov 9.1k, Elekana 7.1k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Originally scheduled to fight Johnny Walker, Bogdan Guskov will now be taking on Billy Elekena who is taking this fight on short notice after Walker pulled out due to injury this week.

Elekena is 29 years old and 7-1 professionally. He has competed against okay regional competition in LFA and PFL but he hasn’t fought anyone great either. 

I actually don’t think Elekena looks bad. I consider him a competent and solid regional level talent. He is reasonably well-rounded and actually seems very tough, and he has never been finished before. 

On the feet, I consider Elekena an okay striker. He predominantly fights out of the southpaw stance but will switch stances occasionally.

He has some decent straight punches and an okay jab. He has a decent rear kick to the body as well. He is somewhat technical. I don’t love his volume though and he looks to lack real power for a LHW. He also doesn’t throw much in combination and generally throws single shots which I never like. I still consider him functional on the feet though and he doesn’t seem like someone who will give up soft knockouts.

As a grappler, I also consider Elekena competent. He actually looks like a solid defensive wrestler and can use his defense to counter grapple and end up on top. He also has okay takedowns and I consider his top game functional, and he can land ground-and-pound from top. I don’t think he is a great submission grappler though and he just doesn’t wrestle offensively enough, so I can’t count on him to persistently wrestle.

My main concern for Elekena is just that he hasn’t fought great guys and I don’t think he thrives anywhere. He isn’t a very good striker or a very good grappler, but he is competent in both areas. Also, his lack of power on the feet could be an issue. He lost a split decision to Daniel Compton and kind of just got roughed up in the inside boxing exchanges because Compton had a little more power in his hands.

Still though, Elekena is somewhat well-rounded. He looks to have decent cardio and he does look to be durable thus far in his career. I don’t think he is in over his head getting called up to the UFC.

Elekena will be taking on Bogdan Guskov. Guskov is from Uzbekistan but fights out of Russia and is 16-3 professionally. He was dominated by Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut but then bounced back with two knockout wins against Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann.

Even though Guskov fights out of Russia, Guskov is generally a striker and mostly a boxer. He is pretty aggressive and he has some decent timing and speed on his punches. He has a decent 1-2 combination. He has power too, and 14 of his 16 wins have come by knockout. I think he is okay and capable of knocking out light heavyweights in the UFC.

It is hard to be too confident in Guskov though because he still hasn’t beaten many great guys. I also saw him get knocked dead by the one decent fighter on the regionals he fought in 2020. Furthermore, I have seen him taken down and outgrappled pretty badly too. I really question his defensive grappling. The Oezdemir fight was a bad look too. 

I also haven’t seen Guskov in too many extended fights which is a concern. Most of his fights end early. I did see him still punching somewhat explosively in rounds two and three in a couple of fights, so he honestly may be fine in extended striking fights but I am not positive.

Guskov doesn’t wrestle offensively much. I don’t think he has great takedowns. However, in top position he does throw heavy ground-and-pound and has two submission wins. He can at least be in that position and look dangerous. My guess is that Guskov is striking dependent to win in the UFC though and most likely by knockout.

As far as this matchup goes, I understand why Guskov is the favorite as he had a full camp for this matchup and he has some wins over very well known UFC fighters like Ryan Spann. 

However, I do tend to think this line is a bit too wide. I mostly just don’t think Guskov is very good. He clearly has some holes especially on the mat and just looks like a guy who can find ways to lose as a favorite.

I also think Elekena has some grappling equity in this matchup. I am not fully confident in it but Elekena looks like a better grappler to me especially defensively. It wouldn’t shock me for Elekena to land a takedown or two and have some success. Elekena being a better grappler alone makes this line seem off. I still don’t have a ton of confidence that Elekena will look to persistently wrestle though which is an issue. He has had plenty of three round decisions where he has not attempted a takedown.

On the feet, Guskov definitely looks like a heavier hitter and honestly I am going to pick him for that reason. Guskov just has much more power in his hands. That may lead to a knockout or just more damage over the course of 15 minutes.

Still though, Elekena isn’t a bad striker. He also may be more durable. It wouldn’t shock me if Elekena hurt Guskov or just competed on the numbers on the feet. 

I just feel like Elekena at least has a few paths to victory as a big underdog which makes the line seem wide. Elekena could reasonably have some grappling success, striking success, or maybe even test Guskov’s durability. So definitely avoid putting Guskov in your parlays.

I will go with Guskov though because he seems like a heavier hitter and is definitely the most dangerous guy Elekena has fought.

—

On DraftKings, Guskov is going to have the typical LHW knockout upside but he’ll be completely reliant on that early finish at 9.1k.

I personally think this line is too wide as well, though the problem with Elekana is that he’s too passive. He might just sit back and not do much, and allow Guskov to come forward and throw aggressively.

Elekana has never been finished, but he was knocked down by Compton in his loss and I think he could get knocked out for real at some point. Allowing a fighter like Guskov to come forward and throw is dangerous.

So I don’t hate Guskov at 9.1k. He has KO upside and he’s actually -175 to win ITD. He works nicely as a pivot off the championship fighters, saves some salary, and has upside in his style.

With that said, I probably won’t be investing much. Elekana’s passive style may not help him win many fights but it may keep him alive longer than we’d like from a fantasy perspective.

He is not going to force exchanges, and he will defend well and back up. He may try to wrestle and counter. There’s a pretty good chance in my mind that this fight does extend, and that will kill off some of the upside of Guskov.

We just saw Guskov win by KO in round two and score 97 points which I don’t think is enough at 9.1k. I’d really like a round one KO. That outcome is obviously possible but I don’t particularly love that path in this matchup.

Also, Guskov has some real issues. He is a very poor grappler and he’s already been put in dominant positions on the mat in two of his three UFC fights. Elekana may be forced to wrestle here due to the aggression of Guskov, and I think he could have success.

I don’t actually trust Elekana to proactively wrestle or produce a lot of offense but it’s one clear way to dismantle the threat of your opponent swinging hammers at you.

Elekana is priced at 7.1k and I think he’s somewhat sneaky. I really don’t think people will be on him as he’s not a finisher even on the regional scene, and coming in short notice. Guskov is fresh off a nice KO win and there are other higher profile names nearby Elekana.

I am actually nervous about Elekana winning a boring decision and still missing the optimal lineup, so that’s going to keep my exposure in check. But he could take Guskov down. He could win rounds. He even has some KO equity though I wouldn’t bet on that outcome.

He’s only +400 to win ITD and won’t project well due to a lack of offense in his profile. Again, he’s a low-end target all things considered and not someone I trust. I do think he’ll be overlooked by the field though and my gut says this line should be much closer due to Guskov’s weaknesses.

I don’t mind using a bit of Elekana at 7.1k and he’s one of the more sneaky dogs on the card who could produce a surprise upset.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Guskov by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos

Fight Odds: Talbott -1050, Barcelos +650

Odds to end ITD: -285

DraftKings Salaries: Talbott 9.9k, Barcelos 6.3k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Budding UFC superstar, Payton Talbott will face a veteran test against Raoni Barcelos this weekend.

I was extremely impressed with Talbott in his matchup against Cameron Saaiman, who Talbott fought prior to his most recent win over Ghemmouri.

Talbott absolutely dominated Saaiman and landed 79 significant strikes before securing the knockout in round two. His volume, striking, pace, and power were impressive. He then knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri in his last matchup in 19 seconds in a bit of a softball matchup. I think Talbott is a legitimate prospect, and I am looking forward to seeing him progress.

Talbott booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating Reyes Cortes Jr. on the Contender Series. Talbott landed 145 significant strikes in that fight, attempted 282, and defended 16 of 17 takedowns. Talbott then made his UFC debut in a favorable matchup against grappling dependent fighter Nick Aguirre. Despite being taken down early, Talbott weathered the storm and eventually tired Aguirre out and finished him on the mat with a RNC.

You saw Talbott’s skillset in all of those fights. He is a striker. He is tall and long at 5’10” and will push a relentless pace on the feet. He walks his opponents down and really throws everything at them. He will mix in a lot of straight punches, and stabbing kicks to the body. He is a good athlete and has power as well. 

I do think his defense could use some work, but his offense is good and his pace is tremendous. He reminds me of a young Sean O’Malley.

Talbott is a bit green though, and you have seen it in some of his grappling exchanges. I have seen him taken down, body triangled, and just put in some overall bad positions. I do think good grapplers could have their way with him.

However, I actually don’t think Talbott is all that easy to grapple. He also just seems to be improving. He is a really good athlete and he is quite good at giving up his back and scrambling up to his feet. You need to have good mat returns or a good body triangle to keep him down. He at least understands the concept of not accepting bottom position, and I really think if people don’t have good mat returns, he will generally get up. We probably have a few more fights before he will be tested by a legitimate grappler.

Talbott will be taking on UFC veteran Raoni Barcelos. I have generally respected Barcelos’ skill as a fighter. He is a pretty decent striker and has that classic aggressive Brazilian striking style. He lands 5.22 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.79 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 61 percent. He also has some moderate power and has landed three knockdowns in his last six fights.

I also respect Barcelos as a grappler. He lands 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, a capable submission grappler and submitted Chris Gutierrez a few years back. He is capable of passing and taking the back. Barcelos also has stellar TDD at 85 percent. 

The issue with Barcelos at this point is his career trajectory. He is 37 years old which isn’t ancient or anything, but it is on the older side for bantamweight. He is also 11 years older than Talbott. It just increases the percentage of a decline.

As far as this matchup goes, I have to go with Talbott as the more youthful and athletic fighter. On the feet, I think Talbott will be at an athletic, youth and length advantage. I think he will be landing way more consistently than Barcelos and be landing the more damaging shots. I feel like Barcelos will have to hurt Talbott to deter Talbott from walking him down, which is possible as Barcelos has some power but it’s still pretty unlikely. I think Talbott will honestly hurt or finish Barcelos at some point on the feet.

Barcelos does have a potential grappling threat though. I do think a takedown and body triangle are at least possible as Talbott is still green and Barcelos is a skillful grappler. Still though, if Barcelos doesn’t finish Talbott on the mat, I think Talbott will eventually escape and probably tire Barcelos out and beat him up. I also think Talbott is much harder to take down than people realize. So I am leaning towards Talbott minimizing the grappling of Barcelos and just overwhelming Barcelos on the feet with his superior volume, athleticism, and power. So Talbott is the pick for me.

—

On DraftKings, Talbott is a whopping 9.9k and is coming off a 130-point victory over Ghemmouri in his last matchup.

It’s a little bit silly in that fighters priced this highly are simply unlikely to be optimal, however recently, we’ve seen a lot of them come through and land on optimals anyway. Talbott was priced 9.8k in that last fight but won in 19 seconds, so yeah, that usually will do it. And we’re coming off a card where BOTH the 9.8k and 9.6k fighters ended up optimal.

On this 14-fight slate with multiple championship options, I highly doubt Talbott ends up popular. Kline last week was only 7% owned at 9.8k, though this is a completely different matchup, the top range is stacked this week.

Personally, Talbott feels much closer to a fade than anything else.

Not only is his style not the best suited for DK, but he’s fighting far and away the toughest opponent of his entire career. A highly experienced veteran who has very skilled boxing and is a much superior grappler to Talbott.

The biggest issue and the reason why Talbott is this big of a favorite is because Barcelos’ career trajectory looks poor, and he’s been getting hurt a lot more recently. I still will probably pick Talbott to win by early KO.

An early KO quite likely still won’t be enough though, and that’s the primary concern. A first round KO in two minutes with 20 significant strikes is only 108 DK points. We could easily have 100+ scores from 3-4 others in the 9k range, who also grapple, and also have higher ceilings than Talbott does outright.

Talbott is very unlikely to wrestle at all in this matchup and volume doesn’t matter at this kind of price tag. He needs to beat Barcelos up badly and probably land multiple knockdowns along with the KO to have a shot. Or win inside the first 60 seconds to gain those extra 25 bonus points, which he did last time.

Talbott is -240 to win ITD but only +180/+220 to win in RD 1, depending on where you look. He scored a very nice 113-point win against Saaiman with a RD 2 KO that came with nearly 80 sig. strikes, but I highly doubt that would be enough points on this slate at 9.9k.

If I’m creating lineups that have the salary available, especially those where I’m on the championship underdogs, then maybe I’d consider some exposure to Talbott. My guess is that for the most part, I won’t have that salary available. And I also think there’s merit to choosing most of the 9k range over him straight up.

So I won’t be investing much into Talbott this weekend even though he’s a stud, and he probably will win by early KO. There’s just too much of a ceiling on other options in this range who are far cheaper, and my process is going to lead me toward those grapplers more often than not.

Barcelos at 6.3k is probably not worth playing, but I’ve been very high on Barcelos as a talent in the past.

His metrics are very strong, and he’s very well-rounded. On paper, he could beat Talbott.

I do think that he’s wearing down, and he’ll be smaller than Talbott which will pose issues. I don’t know how urgently he’ll pursue the grappling and he might get hurt early. It doesn’t feel smart to chase any Barcelos exposure.

But I also don’t want to write this up like “omg Talbott is a world beater and Barcelos cannot compete with him.” Barcelos is so many levels ahead of any other fighter Talbott has ever competed with. So I wouldn’t be that shocked if Barcelos could find some success and extend the fight.

He’d still be unlikely to land strikes at a high rate, so he’d need a lot of grappling success and probably a finish to reach a ceiling. He’s only +775 ITD which makes sense for a +660 dog. Maybe if you have 150 lineups to work with you could consider a couple darts on him but otherwise it’s pretty reasonable to fade him outright. I’d love for him to at least show up in good form and give Talbott a good test though.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Talbott by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac

Fight Odds: Almeida -491, Spivac +368

Odds to end ITD: -325

DraftKings Salaries: Almeida 9.5k, Spivac 6.7k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a fun heavyweight fight here between Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac. The winner will position themselves closer to the top of the heavyweight division and I consider this an important fight in both fighters’ careers.

Almeida is a submission grappler. His game is easy to break down. He wants to land takedowns, get top control, pass his opponent’s guard, and submit his opponents. That is basically how he wins all of his fights.

I don’t actually think Almeida is very good and if you put his skillset in any other division, I don’t think he would thrive. However, his game at heavyweight will definitely work as heavyweight is full of unskilled fighters who don’t know how to stop takedowns, get up from bottom position, or defend submissions.

So for a heavyweight, I consider Almeida to have good takedowns and a good double leg. He is pretty fast and athletic with his takedowns, and currently lands a solid 6.85 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also always goes to his path to victory which is great to see. He almost psychotically searches for his takedowns. I also consider him a fine submission grappler from top position for a heavyweight and he will finish most heavyweights on the mat.

Almeida clearly has some issues though. On the feet, he looks like a liability. He looks to just minimize engagements and wants nothing to do with striking. He can land an occasional powershot overhand, but other than that, he isn’t a good striker and will get exposed on the feet by most guys who can nullify his wrestling. His cardio also looks a bit weak too.

Overall though, Almeida is going to feast on 90 percent of this division with his takedowns and top game submission grappling.

Almeida will be taking on Serghei Spivac who is coming off a guard armbar win over Marcin Tybura which was a bit surprising to me.

Spivac is okay for a heavyweight. He is best as an offensive grappler. He lands 4.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and can do a lot of upper body type takedowns. He looks to work his submission grappling game from top position and I consider him a mildly dangerous submission grappler. He has six finishes in the UFC and all have come on the mat.

Spivac can also mildly strike but I don’t consider him good on the feet either. He lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.72 in return. He has decent striking cardio and can go through the motions, but he just doesn’t have a ton of athleticism, speed, or power on the feet. We have also seen him have some durability issues as well. I am much more comfortable with Spivac winning fights when he can wrestle offensively.

Spivac has had defensive wrestling issues. He defends takedowns at 70 percent which is okay but I can’t get the first Tybura fight out of my head. He was taken down and controlled for eight minutes. Oleiinik also landed a takedown against Spivac. Other than that, Spivac hasn’t really faced grapplers and I think Almeida is the best grappler that Spivac will have ever fought.

I think Almeida can definitely land takedowns here and I think there is a good chance he just advances position and finishes Spivac early. I just don’t trust Spivac much as a defensive grappler so I have to go with Almeida to win as his path to victory seems obvious, and him being a favorite makes sense.

I still think Spivac has okay TDD though and is at least a moderately skilled grappler, so I don’t think it is too far-fetched to believe that Spivac could survive early. If Spivac survives early, he may have a cardio and striking edge, so Spivac winning wouldn’t completely shock me. 

Still though, I like Almeida’s process much more and I trust him to go to his takedowns, so the pick has to be Almeida as he has a plus skillset as a submission grappler.

—

On DraftKings, I am definitely interested in the Almeida side though he’s expensive as usual at 9.5k.

Almeida has an elite style and skill set to score fantasy points though, and we’ve seen his upside come to fruition on more than one occasion. In wins in the UFC, Almeida has scored 118, 114, 121, 125, 104, 135 and 99. While every win isn’t a guaranteed smash, he clearly has 120+ potential based on his style.

In this particular matchup, I definitely think it’s possible Almeida could get there again. He will shoot for early takedowns, probably get them, and start pounding away on Spivac for a stoppage. If he’s able to find the finish, great, and if not, the fight will extend and he’ll probably bust. Almeida is always going to be boom or bust.

What’s especially intriguing on this slate is that he’s priced above the two championship favorites and below Nakamura and Talbott, who are all elite fantasy targets in some regard. This should keep his ownership down to a degree.

I’m primarily interested in Almeida as a pivot off those championship fighters. Maybe you won’t have the extra salary but I definitely think Makhachev and Nurmagomedov will pull a considerable amount of ownership away from Almeida. Those guys have elite floors but potentially tougher paths to a ceiling this week, as I noted above.

Almeida is far more risky than them but he has a far better chance to win ITD at -230 and his RD 1 prop is +120. I think it makes a lot of sense to consider Almeida as a superior target than those championship options for early finishing upside alone.

I’ll be forced to spread my exposure out in this range with any decent sized portfolio, but Almeida is arguably one of the top overall targets on this slate due to his style and finishing metrics, and I would not mind being above the field.

Spivac at 6.7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.

He’s fine. Almeida has some issues that Tim pointed out. Spivac is probably a better striker and probably has better cardio, but Spivac doesn’t necessarily thrive in either of those areas either.

You’re mostly hoping that Almeida blows his load chasing the finish early and that Spviac can catch him after he tires. It’s definitely not an impossible situation, I just really don’t trust Spivac to pull it off.

Spivac is +600 to win ITD and he’s super cheap. He won’t be owned much this week so that’s a positive. He’s a fine dart throw but I think others in this range or above have much cleaner paths to victory and have better skill sets overall. I won’t be investing much or any into Spivac this week personally.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almeida by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev

Fight Odds: Bekoev -213, Reese +180

Odds to end ITD: Over 1.5 RDS -180

DraftKings Salaries: Bekoev 8.8k, Reese 8.8k

Weight Class: 185

Former LFA champion Azamat Bekoev will get a short-notice call up to take on Zachary Reese this weekend.

Bekoev is 18-3 professionally fighting out of American Top Team, and he’s earned eight wins by knockout and four wins by submission. He’s fought a decent level of competition coming from the Russian circuit and ACB promotion, and he won a few fights in LFA as well.

Bekoev is fairly well-rounded, and I consider him a fine prospect who should be able to win fights at the UFC level. He’s a decent wrestler, with a capable takedown game, and his boxing is fine as well.

I’m just not sure he’s going to dominate in any one area. He will definitely be able to land takedowns and advance position, and against lower-level competition Bekoev will have finishing equity. I don’t consider him some elite submission grappler though.

On the feet, Bekoev is somewhat low volume, and he often works on the counter. He’s still pretty sharp, but he won’t run away with rounds.

He’s coming off a brutal KO win and I do think he carries power, but I also wouldn’t label him a real knockout artist. I’ve also seen him hurt on occasion, though he’s typically able to fight through it. He’s lost some split decisions to Russians back in ACB and he also got caught with a submission late in a fight in 2021.

More recently, Bekoev beat ex-UFC fighter Dylan Budka by split decision for the LFA title in a fight that went five rounds. Budka actually dropped him early, but Bekoev hung tough and was able to outwrestle Budka down the stretch.

Budka isn’t very good, unfortunately, so the fact that the fight was competitive at all makes me nervous. However, Budka looked better there than he did in the UFC in terms of cardio, and I thought it was good to see Bekoev go the full five rounds as well.

Overall, Bekoev is pretty decent and I expect his success will primarily come in the form of takedowns. He’s not an easy guy to produce offense against and he should cruise through the lower levels of the organization. I would expect he’ll hit a ceiling once he reaches the the mid and upper levels of middleweight though.

Bekoev will be taking on Zachary Reese, who won his first professional decision in his most recent bout against Jose Medina.

Prior to that bout, Reese had never seen a round two, and although I guessed he would be able to fight for more extended periods, it was nice to see him actually be forced to go past the first five minutes. Medina didn’t test him much though and mostly took a beating.

Reese is now 8-1 professionally, with six wins by knockout and two by submission, and a 2-1 record inside the UFC after he earned his contract on DWCS in 2023.

However, that DWCS fight wasn’t a very strong performance. Reese sorta got taken down early in round one and then locked up an armbar from guard against an opponent who clearly didn’t know what he was doing.

Then in his UFC debut, Reese only lasted one minute and 49 seconds against Cody Brundage, which isn’t a great sign. To be fair, he was slam KOd from the full guard which is probably not the most repeatable result, but it didn’t necessarily ease the concerns I had about Reese entering the promotion.

But prior to this last bout, we’d only seen brief moments of any skills because his fights ended so quickly and he’s mostly been competing against awful opposition. So sure, he can knock guys like Julian Marquez out in 20 seconds, but it’s still hard to be sold on him as a round winner.

Reese is pretty long for the division, and fights in an upright stance. He’s very aggressive, and I actually like his kicking game which is one of his most dangerous weapons. He was slamming kicks into the body of Medina for three rounds and it’s fair to say that many fighters on the roster would not have been able to take the damage that Medina took.

Similarly, his grappling looks fine at times. He’s stronger than he looks based on his skinny frame, and I’ve seen him fair well in the clinch game. I’ve seen him use some Judo trips and some takedowns, and his submission grappling seems fine. He landed five takedowns in his most recent matchup.

Defensively, I still have concerns. Brundage took him down pretty early, which isn’t a major red flag, but then Reese just held full guard and attacked for submissions. That’s what worked for him at the regional level so it’s not really a surprise.

Except this time, he got slammed on his head and knocked out. It just makes me question the entire process of his game and whether he will just get stuck on his back moving forward.

Medina also took him down in the first round which isn’t the best sign. That’s now three of his past four opponents who have been able to get Reese down, and each takedown came in round one.

While I liked to see Reese go the full distance, I still think the majority of his success is going to come with damage. He’s very aggressive, and throws powerful strikes, largely hunting for the finish.

Against weaker competition, Reese will be able to extend his game and continue to win rounds, but I don’t see him consistently outpointing guys, and my expectation is that he will have defensive wrestling issues.

Against Bekoev, that is my primary concern. Bekoev is a good wrestler, and Reese is defending takedowns at 25%. It seems quite likely to me that Bekoev will be able to get Reese down on the mat without too much adversity.

That may just be enough to win him the fight. Top position, control, and a submission threat is enough to win rounds at the UFC level. Reese may be attacking for armbars and triangles from his back but if he doesn’t get them, he could have his guard passed and he will be losing rounds.

I do think Reese has submission equity though, as he’s aggressive and he hunts for the finish. I’m not 100% sold on Bekoev being a superb defensive fighter and a random armbar wouldn’t shock me.

If this fight plays out on the feet, Bekoev is going to have to mind his Ps and Qs or he’ll get knocked out. He’s an Orthodox fighter which means Reese will have those same body kicks available to him here.

At distance, Reese should have the advantage with his pressure and kicking game. Bekoev will likely be forced to counter with his boxing, which still could be successful, but I worry about him losing the optics. With that said, either man could be hurt as clearly Bekoev has power too.

It’s also worth mentioning again that Bekoev is taking this fight on less than one week’s notice. I think his cardio is pretty strong so I have faith he’ll be able to fight for three rounds, but you never know. Especially when fighters are making their UFC debuts, there’s some additional risk.

I still think Reese’s success will likely come early. Late in the fight, my guess is that Bekoev can take him down and control him, and maybe even find a stoppage on the mat. In round one, Reese may prove a legitimate threat and I wouldn’t be shocked if he hurt Bekoev.

I just trust the general process of Bekoev more, as well as his wrestling skills, so I will pick him to win.

—

On DraftKings, we have a very rare circumstance where both fighters are priced at 8.8k.

Reese was originally a moderate favorite and was already priced in at 8.8k, but he’s now a sizable underdog with Bekoev sitting at -210. So we have a fairly priced Bekoev at 8.8k, and a very overpriced Reese at 8.8k, who should be closer to 7.4k.

Obviously, that’s going to make it difficult to play Reese often. On paper he will lose the majority of the time, and there are other fighters in this range who are much more likely to win, and could easily exceed 100 points in a victory.

I expect it will mean that we’ll see a very low ownership on Reese, probably sub 15% and potentially sub 10%.

Bekoev on the other hand feels like a viable target. Most will want to pay up into the 9k range, and there aren’t many obvious targets in the mid-8ks. Bekoev has both wrestling equity and finishing equity, so he’s intriguing.

I’m not sure I love him though. ITD lines aren’t out yet for this fight but I doubt Bekoev’s will be elite, and Reese has only been finished once, which was via slam. I’m not sure he’ll be an easy fighter to submit or knock out with ground-and-pound, and Bekoev is more than willing to fight safely in top position and extend fights.

So my gut feeling is that Bekoev scores well via some takedowns and control, but probably doesn’t reach a ceiling too often without an early finish. He’s viable at 8.8k, but I don’t think I will prioritize him outright.

Reese is going to be a clear contrarian and leverage target, and honestly, I think he’s in consideration. It may be completely stupid but the fact is, a lot of Reese’s win equity is tied into early finishes.

Even here, if Reese wins, I think the most likely outcome is a RD 1 finish. His two wins in the UFC scored 127 and 106 which are both strong, and both could still contend for the optimal at 8.8k.

The primary risk is that you’re getting a loser more often than not, but I don’t think that’s a reflection of Reese’s upside. Considering the field will be off Reese completely, he’s one spot where you can be very unique without sacrificing a ton of upside.

I don’t know if I have the stones to play him often, and I don’t think this is an easy matchup for him either. I’m picking him to lose. But if I had a large portfolio and was chasing large field tournaments, I probably would still include a bit of Reese and I wouldn’t mind being near the field percentage.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bekoev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira

Fight Odds: Dawson -241, Ferreira +201

Odds to end ITD: -115

DraftKings Salaries: Dawson 9k, Ferreira 7.2k

Weight Class: 155

We should get another fun lightweight matchup and another legitimate test for Grant Dawson who will be taking on the ever-dangerous Diego Ferreira.

Dawson is considered a solid prospect by most, and he’s had a very strong run of success inside the UFC/DWCS, earning 11 wins and one draw while only losing once.

He’s a wrestler at heart, and the majority of his success has come with takedowns, back control and ground-and-pound. Dawson averages 3.65 takedowns per 15 minutes and has quality wins over Damir Ismagulov and Jared Gordon, among others.

However, I still feel as though there are limitations to his game, and I’m pretty worried that Diego Ferreira is the type of opponent to expose him again.

Primarily, I will feel the most comfortable picking Dawson to win in matchups where he is clearly the more skilled grappler. In this case, while Dawson is a BJJ black belt, Diego Ferreira is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt which just shows a level of experience on the mat that Dawson does not have.

Furthermore, Dawson hasn’t had much success striking, though he hasn’t really needed it. Only 26% of his fights have taken place at distance, which is far below the divisional average of 61%.

He did get a recent fight to test his abilities there against Bobby Green, but Green knocked him out cold in 33 seconds, so that wasn’t a great result.

I also hated the other non-win Dawson has in the UFC which is his draw against Ricky Glenn. Dawson was cruising on top for 15 minutes, holding Glenn down while Glenn put up little resistance from his back. Then Dawson got tired in round three and was beaten up badly to the point of  a near stoppage.

The point is, I like Dawson’s skill set as a wrestler and I think he’s pretty strong in that area. He can take you down and grind you out. When he’s forced to face adversity in fights, whether that be in the form of distance striking or cardio, I still don’t have trust that he will pull through.

This is a quality fight to make because Ferreira will bend, but he’s tough to break. He’s one of those grapplers who sucks at wrestling, so he decided the best course of action is to push a high pace and try to make opponents uncomfortable.

On the feet, he’s aggressive and that aggression can pose a threat. If opponents choose to take him down, well, he’s a 3rd degree black belt so he’s fine on the bottom too.

Ferreira’s last win came against Mateusz Rebecki who is a strong wrestler and a physical force, and Rebecki was dominating the first two rounds. He knocked Ferreira down in round one and took him down three times in round two.

By the end of round two though, Rebecki was tired. In round three, Ferreira kept marching forward and landed 62 significant strikes, eventually getting on top of Rebecki and winning by TKO in the final seconds.

I don’t think this fight will play out in the exact same manner, but I’m also highly skeptical that Dawson can overcome that same situation.

So this fight really may come down to whether Dawson can take Ferreira down and hold him down for three rounds while avoiding any submission threats from the bottom. I think he can do it, but if he gets tired and Ferreira starts to scramble and force striking exchanges, it’s possible the momentum flips quickly and Ferreira is able to find a finish.

I almost want to pick Ferreira outright here. The guys who he has lost to are elite wrestlers in Dariush, Gregor Gillespie and Mateusz Gamrot. There’s no shame in that. And a standing knockout win over Michael Johnson and the comeback win over Rebecki are better than any win Dawson has in his pro career.

Ferreira is also 39 while Dawson is 30, so it’s fair to lean toward the youth and general wrestling of Dawson.

Also I want to mention that while Ferreira’s offensive wrestling kind of sucks, and he only lands 0.96 takedowns per 15 minutes, Dawson has only defended at 57%. Ferreira may have actual wrestling upside in this matchup where he normally would not, despite that being Dawson’s base.

I go back and forth. I’ll probably pick Dawson because he should be the one wrestling early and he should earn top position. He’s a fine top game grappler and he should stay safe. I think Ferreira is extremely live to beat him though as long as he doesn’t get held down for entire rounds.

—

On DraftKings, I may be more interested in the dog Ferreira at the cheap price of 7.2k.

This bottom tier is tricky with multiple championship dogs and while they are both viable, I like the idea of pivoting away to lower owned options. Ferreira is simply one option, and someone who has a reasonable ceiling in his win condition.

The problem is just that Ferreira carries no floor. He could be held down for minutes at a time, and he may not wrestle. He may lose and look poor. But he also has plenty of 90+ point victories including his last two, which scored 119 and 92.

In this matchup, I think he likely wins ITD if he wins at all. A striking based decision is possible as well I suppose and that may not be enough, but I think striking success would come with damage as well, and he will carry some KD equity. He’s +385 to win ITD which isn’t great.

Also, there’s obvious upside should he ever end up in top position. He’ll project with no real wrestling equity but he can land 2-3 takedowns, and land a ton of ground-and-pound en route to a stoppage. He can win by submission, and it could come early or late.

This is definitely a high-risk target and not someone I plan to be extremely heavy on compared to the field. But he’s for sure on my radar and I think a quality secondary option with all things considered. At 7.k, I’ll be willing to take risks with Ferreira and I wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to the field.

Dawson at 9k is an option you could pivot to off the championship fighters priced above.

I don’t love him in this matchup to be honest, but I can’t write him off either. It’s just that his recent 108 point win against Solecki and 114 point win against Garcia came with essentially no resistance. I would be surprised if Ferreira fought with no resistance.

So I think Ferreira likely limits the amount of offense Dawson can produce. He won’t get subbed, and he won’t just eat a ton of ground-and-pound. It makes me want to lean against playing much Dawson.

However, that’s really all Dawson can do. If he wins, it will likely come with 3-4 takedowns, and 5-10 minutes of control. Ferreira has been TKOd a couple of times and he’s nearly 40, so Dawson hurting him in an exchange wouldn’t be a complete shock. Dawson is +160 to win ITD which is OK.

Dawson just scores well in general too. His early wins scored between 90-100 and he’s posted a handful of 100+ scores in finishes as well. I still think he likely fails to reach 100 points without a finish, but I can’t completely rule out enough round success to push that number.

Ultimately, there are just safer options in this range with higher floors and higher ceilings, and I’m going to prioritize them. But in spots where you can’t pay up, or are looking to pivot away from the chalk, Dawson becomes more valuable and is a totally fine option for grappling upside.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dawson by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez

Fight Odds: Rosa -240, Perez +200

Odds to end ITD: +325

DraftKings Salaries: Rosa 8.6k, Perez 7.6k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a blue-collar matchup here in the women’s bantamweight division between Karol Rosa and Ailin Perez. This is an interesting style matchup and could make for a fun fight with a lot of offense.

Rosa is probably best as a volume striker. She lands 6.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.91 in return. She can keep up a high pace and I generally like her ability to score offense. She recently went to war against Irene Aldana and landed a ridiculous 204 significant strikes in 15 minutes. She still lost the fight though and absorbed 145 significant strikes herself. However, she rebounded with a solid win against Pannie Kianzad in her last matchup. I really like the lead leg kick of Rosa as well.

Rosa also can land takedowns. She lands 1.20 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of obtaining and riding out top position. Her offensive takedowns are actually pretty awesome for not coming from a wrestling background. As a wrestling coach, I quite like the technique on her double leg. There is no wasted movement in it.

I just like Rosa’s overall willingness to try to score offense, and she has the cardio to keep the output going. 

Rosa defends takedowns at 68 percent and I consider her a decent defensive wrestler. She was outwrestled by Sara McMann. However, McMann is a former Olympian, and a seriously awesome takedown artist with great top control as well. I didn’t think Rosa’s defensive wrestling looked all that bad in that matchup and it has looked good in others. Rosa played guard a little bit too long against McMann but I think it was largely because McMann is a very good wrestler.

Rosa will be taking on Ailin Perez. Perez is an Argentinian fighter who is 11-2 professionally. She is now 4-1 in the UFC with wins over Ashlee Evans-Smith, Lucie Pudilova, Joselyn Edwards, and Daria Zhelenznyakova. She lost her UFC debut by RNC to Stephanie Eggar.

I mostly profile Perez as a grappler who aggressively pursues takedowns. She is not skillful and many of her takedowns are head and arm based which is a red flag. However, she is a somewhat physical girl and pursues takedowns persistently. She has landed 1, 10, 2, 6, and 2 takedowns in her five UFC fights. I think she will continue to outwrestle weak competition in this division. She also has some decent ground-and-pound from top position. 

Good grapplers will absolutely shut Perez down and beat her though like we saw against Egger. I also don’t love the defensive grappling of Perez. She defends takedowns at 66 percent which is fine but she has really bad get ups, and I have seen her held down for long stretches in bottom position.

Perez’s striking is a bit of a means to an end. She lands 2.84 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.34 in return. However, most of her strikes come in top position so I consider her striking numbers skewed. She isn’t awful on the feet. She stayed competitive on the feet with Joselyn Edwards and hurt her with a spinning backfist. She has some decent pop. However, I am more comfortable with Perez winning fights if she is consistently landing takedowns.

As far as this matchup goes, I do think Rosa is just a more talented and much more well-rounded fighter, with far better wins on her resume, so I am definitely going to pick her in this matchup.

On the feet, I trust Rosa much more. I think she has much better output and has leg kicks in her back pocket. I also just think Rosa is much more comfortable striking than Perez. Perez can probably compete to a degree on the feet by landing some occasional power strikes and trying to limit engagements. However, I definitely favor Rosa on the feet as the more consistent striker.

I honestly think Rosa could dominate here if she just looks to land takedowns. She could land takedowns on Perez easily in my opinion and probably dominate Perez on the mat. I seriously hate the bottom game of Perez. For comparison, Rosa won the control battle against Edwards 11:02 to 0:02. Edwards actually out controlled Perez 5:11 to 4:18. I know that is a little too much MMA math for legitimate analysis. However, my eyes tell me Rosa could dominate on top here as well. So Rosa has a lot of paths to victory. Rosa could volume strike or just land takedowns and go to work.

I do think Perez could potentially land takedowns here. Maybe it can lead to a bit of control too. However, Perez has just been feasting off bottom of the barrel competition. I don’t think her takedowns are actually that great and many of them are head and arm based. Just because McMann had success against Rosa does not give me any confidence that Perez can replicate it. I think Rosa can generally stop takedowns here and probably get up or reverse position if she does end up on the mat.

So I am going to go with Rosa here. I trust her most in all areas and I think she is a much more proven fighter in general. I also just think Perez has a narrow path to victory and I am not confident that she can even successfully implement it.

—

On DraftKings, Rosa is another one of those fighters who will never project that well, but has proven outlier performances on a consistent enough basis to give me pause.

The fight is highly likely to go the distance at -450 and Rosa’s individual ITD line is only +385, so we can’t assume much finishing equity. While there is wrestling equity on paper, you would think Perez would be the more urgent wrestler and Rosa has ultimately only landed two takedowns in her last four fights combined.

Striking volume alone isn’t usually enough to get the job done. Unless you’re Karol Rosa. In the UFC, Rosa has already put up 204, 171, 125, 120 and 117 significant strikes. Those are insanely strong striking metrics and it has led her to optimal scores more often than you’d expect.

She has put up decision wins of 112, 110, 109, 105 and 94, which is a pretty elite record for a fighter with only seven wins in the organization. I don’t know if it’s extremely likely she’ll continue this trend, but it certainly has my attention.

In this matchup against Perez, Rosa is priced at 8.6k which is an interesting price point because there are no 8.5k or 8.4k options this week. That’s going to make Rosa viable to a degree when you need salary relief, but already have exposure to the other two mid-range fights or want to pivot away from them.

This matchup is also a decent one for Rosa in terms of her ability to mix in additional wrestling. She has landed three and four takedowns in fights before, and against Perez, I think a couple of takedowns with a few minutes of control is realistic. She’d still need lots of significant and total strikes to clear 100 points, but it’s possible.

I’m not as sure that Perez is the type to yield 180 sig. strikes, but Perez isn’t very defensively sound and might even take some damage. A KD wouldn’t be the craziest outcome for Rosa.

Ultimately, Rosa just isn’t going to project that well for ceiling purposes because of her style, but she’s proven on many occasions she can overcome it with offensive production. I like her in this matchup and consider her reasonably safe, and with a lack of options in this range, I still view Rosa as a quality secondary target who I will want some exposure to in all formats.

Perez at 7.6k could be semi-popular with her recent box scores.

She’s an aggressive grappler with recent wins of 109, 110 and 138 DraftKings points, which is elite. This is primarily because her offense is great when she’s able to secure dominant positions. She can just rain down ground-and-pound and get a finish, plus she can also lack many takedowns over 15 minutes.

So overall, I really like to target Perez in advantageous matchups where she can dominate on the mat.

I don’t really consider this a strong matchup for Perez. From what I can tell, Rosa is going to whizzer pretty hard on takedown attempts, and scramble well to force back takes, which is really not Perez’ game. Rosa is also a BJJ black belt and probably the better pure submission grappler of the two. Perez is only +900 to win ITD which isn’t strong.

While I think Perez is still in consideration as a secondary target here due to her style, I don’t love her in this matchup and I would aim to be underweight if she projects to be popular.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rosa by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov

Fight Odds: Nakamura -541, Gafurov +398

Odds to end ITD: +135

DraftKings Salaries: Nakamura 9.6k, Gafurov 6.6k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Rinya Nakamura was a part of the Road to UFC series back in 2022 and is one of the more touted Japanese prospects – he’s 3-0 in the UFC and 9-0 as a pro. Gafurov is a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season who came up short in his opportunity. He went back to the regionals picking up an LFA title before getting the call-up last year – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 19-6 as a pro.

The striking component:

Given Nakamura’s wrestling base (touched on below), we still don’t have a large sample of him striking. He stands southpaw and works a more blitzing striking style to which he’s shown bigger power components with five of his nine pro wins coming via KO/TKO.  

It hasn’t just been with his hands though, as I’ve seen him hurt guys with kicks and knees before as well.  

He was obviously a lot more aggressive in his Road to UFC fights but in his fight with Caetano prior that went a full 15 minutes, he was a lot more reserved in his striking approach. I wouldn’t say he was super low output against Garcia in his debut either or against Vera most recently. 

So establishing his pacing is still a bit difficult to assess but he is accurate and dangerous no doubt about it.  

Defensively, he doesn’t really check leg kicks and we did see Nose actually tag him good a couple times a few fights back – he also got cut early against Caetano and Garcia landed some flush shots in the rare times he decided to commit to strikes.  

So Nakamura will be mobile on the outside but I’m not in love with what I’ve seen from him defensively to date.  

Overall, he’s still a developing striker with his more recent move to MMA full-time but he’s capable. 

Gafurov is a grappler by base but has shown decent stand-up components more so when he’s fresh.   

I’m not a particularly big fan of his work rate as he tends to fight in bursts, but when he goes, he goes with bigger explosive actions – although he fought at a more consistent pace against Castaneda where he actually out landed him both in significant strikes and at distance.   

He is a bit rigid and not the most technical party, but it’s those explosive actions that have given opponents issues, resulting in 10 of his 19 pro wins coming via strikes.    

Defensively, he’s not terrible at range but he’s struggled with effective pressure in certain outings, specifically against Lineker and points against Anheliger and Castaneda. The knee that Anheliger landed in the 1st to drop Gafurov was one of the more pivotal factors in the fight. He was also hurt with a high kick early by Castaneda.    

However, the guy’s really tough having never been KO’d in his pro career – coupled with some of the bombs he ate against Lineker – but he has been hurt in multiple fights now which needs to be noted.   

Overall, his stand up is respectable for someone who isn’t a base striker who obviously has the ability to put guys down, but he’s going to run into issues now fighting at the UFC level against more technical fighters with more consistent pacing patterns.

How it plays out: There are some parallels standing with both guys in the sense that they’re not the most technical parties, but will bite the mouthpiece and possess power. While I’d say there’s been more discouraging things seen from the Gafurov side, that also comes with sample as he’s fought a better brand of striker and we just have more data of him on the feet. So, the striking seems rather volatile in the sense that both guys seem tough, but also have poor defense and the capabilities to hurt one another. I do like southpaw look for Nakamura in addition to his kicks though as we saw a fellow southpaw in Castaneda hurt Gafurov.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Nakamura comes from a stronger wrestling background and was actually an Olympic hopeful prior to COVID shutting the world down. But that’s what set off his move to MMA and he’s been very dominant on the floor in his shorter career to date.  

His entries are fast, quick, non-telegraphed and he’s getting guys down largely when he wants them to go down. Even in the scenarios that he’s not able to secure the original entry, his chain wrestling to other techniques is solid.  

What I also like about Nakamura in relation to MMA is that he’s not necessarily a “lay and pray” wrestler and will look to pass to set up submissions and/or GNP.   

I don’t think his BJJ is anything special, but he’s shown the ability to take the back, threaten arms from crucifix and threaten north/south positions.  

Defensively, he hasn’t been shot on much given his base, but he’s shucked off the few minimal attempts that he’s faced.  

He’s also shown good abilities on top when he’s in the guard to posture or dig into positions.  

Garcia did get him in a guillotine on one entry, but Nakamura jumped over relatively quickly – that’s been a consistent theme with him as well that he’s usually finishing his TDs in either half guard or side control to avoid those initial entry opponent subs.

He also dealt well with all the leg attacks of Vera last time out.  

Overall, Nakamura’s wrestling is going to be a difficult task for many to deal with at the lower-mid tiers of this division.  

Gafurov comes from a combat sambo background where he holds some international accolades and in his native Tajikistan.

Despite the power components that Gafurov has shown on the feet and his willingness to stand and strike for periods of time, I would say his best attribute is his wrestling. I don’t think he’s anything spectacular, but he’s got that grind in him and has shown to be the better wrestler in the majority of his outings.   

What I don’t like is that he can jump guillotines and he hasn’t been much of a submission threat when fighting a better brand of competition. He’s also not immune to being taken down himself but usually does a good job of working back to the feet and/or reversing positions.

However, added wrestling from both Castaneda and Kang gave him some issues where he got taken down three times in both outings. It was a primary contributor to Gafurov losing round three to Castaneda and it helped Kang won the first halves of both rounds two & three – despite the official scorecards reading 30-27 for Gafurov, that Kang fight played closer than that – Kang really lost on optics and sequencing.   

He’s historically shown good submission defense despite getting caught in a handful of guillotines and guard armbars – his committal entries caught up to him in his fight against Nurmagomedov though where he got stuck in a ninja choke early – Said has nasty front chokes in fairness. But he’s also given up dominant positions and control to both Castaneda and Kang, which needs to be noted. 

Overall, we’re not dealing with Khabib or Islam by any means, but he is an above-average wrestler with some grind – the better historic wrestlers he’s fought have given him troubles though.

How it plays out: Both guys are credentialled ground fighters, but I’d ultimately favor Nakamura on the ground for a handful of reasons. For starters, his technical wrestling ability is just better in my eyes as I like his entries to TDs more. While sample and strength of schedule does come into play, we still have seen Gafurov lose minutes and rounds on the ground before whereas we haven’t seen that from Nakamura. A couple other key things to note is that Nakamura’s a better pure athlete, who’s also physically stronger. I trust Nakamura’s cardio far more than I do Gafurov as well as Gafurov begins to get more labored and sloppier as his fights progressed – that pays some credence to him only being 2-5 to the decision in his pro career. But Gafurov will be the best ground fighter that Nakamura has fought to date.

Good fight and a logical step up for Nakamura as the guys he’s beaten in the UFC thus far haven’t given him many issues and have been lower-level talents. But I’m pretty high on Nakamura as a prospect as most people are and I just haven’t been the biggest proponent of Gafurov. The striking has some volatility as noted but I ultimately feel Nakamura is the better ground fighter and I trust his cardio more over the course of 15 minutes in comparison to Gafurov. Additionally, if Gafurov is giving up multiple TDs and ground minutes to guys like Castaneda and Kang, Nakamura should be able to exceed those guys as I rate him much higher than both in the ground department.

—

On DraftKings, I expect Nakamura to be the most forgotten man in the 9k range this week as he’s exceptionally expensive at 9.6k.

While you still need to pay $300 more to roster Talbott, Talbott is coming off some big performances while Nakamura’s last two wins have scored 91 and 85. Not horrible but certainly not worthy of rostering at this price tag. His UFC debut win scored 139 though as the fight ended 33 seconds.

I suppose the easy analysis here is that I don’t like Nakamura as much as the rest of this range. He’s very expensive and hard to fit so in that sense, I don’t expect to have much exposure to him.

However, I’m not a big fan of Gafurov. We’ve seen Gafurov dropped by multiple lower-level talents, and he was also subbed in 1:13 in a recent fight as well. He’s giving up dominant positions on the mat. So there are definitely paths to a big score from Nakamura.

It’s really tough to rely on a KO but Nakamura can be aggressive and he could potentially floor Gafurov early. Or take his back and lock up a RNC, although that’s hard to project as well given the recent decisions from Nakamura. He’s also only +180 to win ITD here.

That finishing metric is another issue because I don’t really see Nakamura getting to the optimal in a decision. He can wrestle yes but he’d need to accrue a lot of points and he’s still never exceeded four takedowns in a fight. I think all these things will contribute to him being very low owned this week.

As a pure contrarian option, I don’t mind Nakamura. Again, there are ways for him to smash. I don’t really love relying on a 60 second KO and if anyone has a good shot at that, it’s probably Talbott or Almeida. I think Nakamura should win and score comfortably but I am far less certain of his ceiling here and I think that will lead to a low ownership on my behalf, despite the public being low as well.

Gafurov at 6.6k isn’t really on my radar as a fantasy target but he should be low owned as well.

He has some power, and some wrestling chops, but it still feels like a dart throw and I wouldn’t expect him to win or hit a ceiling at a high rate. He likely just needs a random KO, or a guillotine to score super well. If you want to play into that at a cheap price tag on a couple of lineups, go for it.

But he’s +600 to win ITD, throws a low volume of strikes and is facing a superior wrestler so I don’t have a lot of hope for him to produce offense. There are plenty of superior underdogs to target on this slate, and that’s where my focus will be personally.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nakamura by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj

Fight Odds: Sopaj -274, Turcios +225

Odds to Finish: +145

DraftKings Salaries: Sopaj 9.3k, Turcios 6.9k

Weight Class: 135

Bernardo Sopaj was on the wrong end of a knockout of the year contender in his UFC debut, and he’ll look to secure his first promotional win this Saturday against a scrapper in Ricky Turcios.

Sopaj is 11-3 professionally at age 24, and he comes from the Allstars camp in Sweden which has produced a bunch of strong talents, including Khamzat Chimaev.

Sopaj has earned seven wins by knockout and three by submission, but I’d label him more of a round winner at the UFC level, which is honestly somewhat of a concern.

Sopaj has a kickboxing background, and he seems competent. I wouldn’t label him an extreme power or physical threat though, and his volume only seems mediocre to me. With that said, he’s got some speed in his hands and has a decent variety of tools to use, including kicks.

He also looks like a neutralizer to me, to a degree, where I don’t think he’ll be putting himself in compromising positions and will look to trade and then disengage. Overall I would say he’s reasonably technical, and still young and promising, but I’m not sold he’s some legit finisher at this level and I think his success will come more in outclassing lower-level competition.

As a wrestler, Sopaj is decent, though we haven’t seen too much from him. There wasn’t much evidence of a wrestling game on the regional scene, but he did land a couple takedowns in his debut and I think it could be a path to victory for him.

However, I don’t trust in his finishing ability on the mat either and I still feel like his overall success will come down to his level of competition.

What I am primarily interested in as far as this matchup, is how Sopaj will look in relation to his last fight, where he did come in on short notice, and gassed out halfway through the fight.

Sopaj had clearly won the first round against Vinicius Oliveira, taking him down a couple times early on. He also took Oliveira down in the second round and had his back, which many felt at the time could lead to a finish.

Sopaj slipped off the top though, and ended up on the bottom against Oliveira, and that was unfortunately the end of the fight. Oliveira landed some heavy shots on the ground, and Sopaj struggled to defend himself.

In round three, Oliveira chased Sopaj around the Octagon, hurting him, and eventually landed a clean flying knee with just seconds remaining that put Sopaj out cold. It was a crazy finish, but one that could be contextualized considering the threat of Oliveira, and the short notice appearance for Sopaj.

Ricky Turcios is not an opponent you want to tire against though, and I now have some very real concerns as to whether Sopaj is able to handle adversity in the Octagon.

Turcios isn’t a technically strong fighter in any capacity, but he’s got a big heart, and fights at a high pace. He’s exactly the type to break an opponent after losing some initial minutes, and I’m pretty worried that he’s the perfect recipe to break a guy like Sopaj.

The worst part of Turcios’ game is his takedown defense. It’s awful. He’s defending at 45 percent, and he just tips over way too easily for my liking.

In four UFC matchups, Turcios has been taken down 17 times, which is horrid.

However, Turcios won’t just lie there on his back and give up. He will scramble and even threaten with his own grappling. He actually beat Brady Hiestand who landed six takedowns, and he beat Kevin Natividad who landed seven takedowns.

Even in a submission loss to Raul Rosas last time out, Turcios reversed the position early and had Rosas in a deep RNC.

So while I think Sopaj can land takedowns if he tries them, I’m really not sure he can hold Turcios down or find a finish. And if Turcios is constantly scrambling back to his feet, that could really tire Sopaj out.

On the feet, again, Sopaj will be more technical for sure. Turcios just kinda throws whatever he wants in there and doesn’t have much defense to speak of. But he pushes forward at a high pace and that’s contributed to him winning fights where his opponents have produced lots of offense as well.

I mean, Turcios even won a round against Natividad where Turcios was knocked down. Because he got right back up and just kept marching forward, eventually putting Natividad in a terrible position on the mat.

The bottom line is that Turcios is a pace fighter. He has terrible defense and he can’t wrestle, but he will not quit. So you either have to put him out, or outlast him, and both of those paths are complicated.

I really don’t know what to make of Sopaj yet, and I honestly want to pick Turcios outright.

I do think Sopaj will get off to a lead because he can fight more technically, and he can land takedowns. But if he doesn’t hurt Turcios badly or submit him, I think Turcios will just fight back super hard for the remainder of the fight.

Maybe Sopaj’s cardio is much better here. Maybe not. He doesn’t really seem like the type to fight through adversity to me and getting chased around for the final five minutes was a really bad look.

Sopaj is also young and pretty small for the division. He’s not extremely experienced against this level of competition, and Turcios will have a few inches of height and reach over Sopaj.

My gut says the betting line is far too wide here, although Sopaj has some promise, there’s no real evidence to suggest he can win a war against Turcios and I think he’ll need a ton of early success to carry him through the fight.

—

On DraftKings, I do think both sides are viable, largely based on the pacing and dynamic that Turcios brings to the table.

You’re just not likely to beat him without finishing him, or producing a lot of offense. I don’t think Sopaj knocks Turcios out at a high rate but I do think he could land five takedowns in a win.

That still may not be enough on a strong slate at 9.3k, but 3-5 takedowns, lots of control, and lots of ground strikes could allow Sopaj to post a reasonable score. Sopaj is +195 to win ITD which is mediocre, and not necessarily a stand out for this price tag.

I also don’t think Sopaj will be popular, coming off that ugly loss in a stacked price range, so that intrigues me a bit. He may not have enough in his own game to reach a top-end ceiling but in a win, I would expect plenty of offense which gives Sopaj a pretty strong floor.

Wrestling equity alone is enough to intrigue me a bit in large-fields, especially if he projects to be relatively low owned, but I do like others in this range more.

I won’t have much exposure to Sopaj on this slate as I feel he’s probably overpriced for the matchup, but he’s at least one viable semi-contrarian option within this top tier based on pacing and some wrestling equity.

Turcios at 6.9k is one of my favorite cheap plays on the slate, and I will probably aim to be overweight to the field.

There are others in this range with promise too, including multiple championship contenders, so I won’t get too carried away, but I love the pacing and heart of Turcios. In his two decision wins, which he was taken down a combined 13 times, Turcios still managed DK scores of 120 and 114.

He’s landing a ton of strikes in those fights, even from his back, which contributes to his upside. So it’s not like if he gets taken down here, he cannot score.

I also think he has sneaky finishing equity both on the feet and on the mat against an opponent who could be vulnerable as the fight progresses. A late 3rd round stoppage is on the table again, which could give Turcios a very high ceiling.

He won’t project well though. He’s a big dog and only +575 to win ITD. He’s also not a technical fighter so there’s a possibility he just looks bad, like he did against Zahabi where he just chased Zahabi around the Octagon for 15 minutes and did nothing.

I’m not certain Sopaj can mimic the game of Zahabi though.

At least, I’m willing to take some chances. He’s cheap with huge pacing upside and sneaky finishing equity. He’s also landed multiple takedowns himself in both wins and Sopaj just got taken down a few times.

It should be a fun fight either way and I quite like Turcios for the price this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sopaj by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter

Fight Odds: Ulanbekov -324, Carpenter +260

Odds to end ITD: +195

DraftKings Salaries: Ulanbekov 8.9k, Carpenter 7.3k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Russian prospect Tagir Ulanbekov, is looking to continue his momentum after submitting Cody Durden in his most recent fight. I actually think this is a fun matchup against Clayton Carpenter as well who is also talented.

Tagir has a lot of experience on the Russian circuit. He is 15-2 professionally and pretty well-rounded. He thrives mostly as a wrestler and he generally takes his opponents down and gets control on the mat. He lands 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Tagir has been able to land takedowns so far in the UFC. However, he has had issues with landing offense from top position and advancing position. I actually think his competition thus far has generally been good, and that he would have more success against lower tier grapplers. Allan Nascimento and Bruno Silva are both BJJ black belts and have very good guards. So Tagir struggled to pass their guards a bit.

Tagir showed his BJJ more vs Elliott, Maness, and Durden. He got Elliott’s back in round three with a body triangle and dominated late in that fight. Furthermore, he advanced position against Nate Maness and was able to get a guillotine. He also submitted Durden and advanced position easily. 

Ulanbekov has an absolutely nasty guillotine which he showed against Maness and on the regional circuit. He nearly submitted Nascimento with it as well. Tagir actually has nine submissions in his career out of 15 wins and I consider him a good submission grappler.

I also LOVE LOVE LOVE Tagir’s get-up game. This guy has some of the best get ups in all of the UFC. He surrendered some takedowns to Bruno Silva and Tim Elliott and currently defends takedowns at 61 percent. However, I still consider his TDD fine and those guys obtained NO control on Tagir. His get up game is seriously amazing. He also easily swept Durden the one time he ended up on his back.

Tagir is a competent striker. He has a decently long frame for flyweight at 5’7” with a 70-inch reach and is a skilled boxer, particularly with his long punches. He almost outlands everyone to the head, and I also like his cardio. He can wrestle and strike hard for 15 minutes. His volume is concerning though and he only lands 3.22 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.30. I don’t totally love him on the feet as he does lack some power and volume, but I do think he is decent and extremely experienced.

Tagir will be taking on rising prospect Clayton Carpenter. Carpenter is now 8-0 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC. We actually bet Carpenter in his last fight against Lucas Rocha where Carpenter came through for us and obtained a RNC in round two. He also obtained a RNC in his UFC debut in round one.

Carpenter actually booked his ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series with a decision win against Edgar Chairez. Carpenter showed a decently well rounded skillset in that fight. He landed three takedowns and obtained some control and slightly outlanded Chairez at distance 56-49.

I mostly consider Carpenter a wrestle-boxer. I think his takedowns are pretty strong and he also does a good job obtaining the back and fishing for rear naked chokes. I definitely think he will feast on weak grapplers at this level.

I also think Carpenter is a mildly dangerous boxer. He is a bit green on the feet but he packs some power and can show some aggression as well. I still just think he is a little too green though and his defense probably needs some work. He can be tagged a bit, and I would like to see his striking develop. He is by no means a scrub standing though, and he can swing hard and fight hard.

I also just think Carpenter seems like a tough kid. He didn’t back down from the moderately dangerous Edgar Chairez and it looks like he can fight a hard three rounds.

I think Carpenter is a decent prospect and fairly well-rounded. I just think he may be a bit underdeveloped though and he doesn’t completely thrive in any particular area.

That is why I think Ulanbekov may just be a bit too much too soon for Carpenter. I am most comfortable with Carpenter winning fights when he has a wrestling advantage and I highly doubt he can outwrestle Tagir. I think he could land a takedown or something, but I would be shocked if he could hold Tagir down for extended periods.

On the other hand, Tagir may be able to have a lot of success on the mat. Carpenter comes from a wrestling background but his defensive wrestling is a bit untested and I did see him held down for a short period in one of his fights. Maybe he negates Tagir’s wrestling, but there is a legitimate chance that Tagir just crushes him on the mat.

On the feet, I could see this being competitive. I think Carpenter may have a little more raw power so perhaps he can land a big shot. However, I think Tagir is a bit more experienced and technical with a bit better defense. I would probably pick Tagir to win striking exchanges at this point in Carpenter’s career but a competitive striking affair wouldn’t shock me.

I think Carpenter’s best chance to win here is by stopping the wrestling of Tagir and landing a knockout, or winning a competitive striking affair. Although it is possible, I think it is a narrow path to victory. I am going to have to go with Tagir here as he may have a big wrestling advantage and could potentially have Carpenter covered everywhere.

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On DraftKings, I am not super interested in targeting this matchup though I am pretty excited to watch it play out.

Ulanbekov is priced at 8.9k and while I respect his game, I also respect Carpenter enough to the point that I am skeptical Tagir just runs through him. Without a high volume of strikes or takedowns otherwise, I don’t know how easily Ulanbekov finds the optimal.

With that said, it’s still a possibility for Ulanbekov to have grappling success. It’s possible he could land 4-5 takedowns and earn a fair amount of control. In his only two UFC wins where he did land 4-5 takedowns though, Ulanbekov scored 93 and 85 DK points which is probably not enough at 8.9k. He’s just not landing quite enough significant or total strikes on top of the wrestling to hit a ceiling.

More recently, he’s won by submission a couple of times in a row, which scored 120 and 100 DK points. Obviously 120 is enough to get onto the optimal.

Ulanbekov is only +225 to win ITD though, in a fight that’s -250 to go the full distance. Carpenter is a high-level BJJ player so even if Tagir does get on top, I think it’s more likely than not that Carpenter survives, or even forces a competitive fight.

Ultimately Ulanbekov is playable at 8.9k but he probably needs an early grappling-based finish, which I am just not counting on in this matchup. He shouldn’t be extremely popular with the high-end names in the tier above either.

I don’t mind some Ulanbekov in a larger portfolio but my personal exposure will come more when I don’t have the ability to pay up much further.

Carpenter at 7.3k has viability but I think it’s a tough matchup for him to hit a ceiling, so I likely won’t invest much here either.

Tagir can definitely be taken down, so 1-2 takedowns for Carpenter wouldn’t surprise me. Can he do anything with them? Probably not enough to be impactful on a DK level.

Otherwise, a competitive striking affair likely won’t yield much offensive production either. He’s only +850 to win ITD which is pretty poor, and is indicative of a tough matchup.

So I think a realistic best case scenario for Carpenter is 1-2 takedowns and 80 sig. strikes, and maybe a mid 70s type score. It’s fine and I’m hopeful for his potential, but I worry about the upside above that.

There are also just a lot of other viable underdogs this week, despite many tough matchups, many do carry upside. And I would rather chase the upside ultimately on a 14-fight slate, which means Carpenter feels like a low-end, floor based target who I probably won’t invest too much into this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ulanbekov by Decision (Confidence=Medium)