UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 (2/1/26)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

MAIN CARD

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

Fight Odds: Volkanovski -141, Lopes +120

Odds to end ITD: -125

DraftKings Salaries: Volkanovski 8.5k, Lopes 7.7k

Weight Class: 145

A rematch for the featherweight title, Diego Lopes has somehow bypassed multiple contenders once again as the UFC desperately wants him to defeat the reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski.

He very well might do it. Lopes is insanely powerful and durable, and Volkanovski is an aging champ who has been through the ringer on more than one occasion.

But when the pair first fought in April 2025, Volkanovski outclassed Lopes to a unanimous decision. It didn’t come without adversity, as Lopes tagged Volkanovski in multiple rounds, knocking him down in the second round.

In total though, those big moments came few and far between, and Volkanovski was able to outland Lopes 158 to 63, while also winning the wrestling exchanges of which there were few sequences.

This wasn’t a particular surprise. Volkanovski is a far superior technical and distance striker. He lands 6.18 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.36 with a 58 percent defensive rate. Lopes is landing 4.1 per minute while absorbing 4.7 with a 47 percent defensive rate.

Lopes is truly an elite submission grappler and if he can secure top time, it’s a clear path to winning and winning ITD. But he can’t wrestle, and he only lands 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes. Volkanovski didn’t need to defend many shots in the first fight, but he does defend at 70 percent and is tough to take down and hold down.

We’ve seen him “nearly finished” on the mat before by Brian Ortega, another elite submission grappler, and Volkanovski toughed his way out of a deep submission. So he’s as hell and won’t be easy to finish there either.

This is simply a difficult matchup for Lopes on paper. He’s outgunned technically and he can’t easily take the fight to the mat. Volkanovski has elite cardio over five rounds while Lopes’ is more questionable. This fight is also in Volkanovski’s home country of Australia.

I do think the outcome of the rematch could be different. Volkanovski has been brutally KOd twice now, by Topuria and Makhachev. Lopes could certainly become the third to score the kill. If he doesn’t land that big shot though, it seems very unlikely he can outpace Volkanovski to a decision.

Volkanovski hasn’t fought since their last matchup while Lopes is coming off the big win over Jean Silva. He was still getting beaten up in that second round before the finish, but to his credit, he once again showed durability and power.

It really could be enough. The betting line is shockingly competitive here compared to how the first fight played out, and that’s one possible signal that Volkanovski can’t outrun the rest of this division forever. There’s also just a lot of variance in striking exchanges. Lopes did knock him down the first time.

I still have to lean toward Volkanovski getting the win more often than not given his clear round winning advantages.

—

On DraftKings, Volkanovski just scored 101 points against Lopes, and now priced at 8.5k, he’ll have a chance to reach that number once again and contend for the optimal.

I don’t think he necessarily has an elite ceiling though. Volkanovski did attempt 11 takedowns in the last fight, only landing one, and it’s not an ideal matchup for him to beat Lopes on the mat. He could earn top control but finishing Lopes there will be super tough.

Otherwise, 158 sig. strikes could be more than he lands this time around, meaning without TDs, Volkanovski could easily find himself closer to 90 points in a win. He is only +285 to win ITD and I wouldn’t bet on a finish.

So I do see risk here with Volkanovski on a really large slate. I think he’s fairly safe to score points over five rounds, and I am picking him to win, but the most likely outcome may be 90-100 points which is enough wiggle room for him to get pushed off the optimal.

At relative chalk, I don’t mind matching the field or coming in underweight on Volkanovski this week. He’s a solid, safe option worth moderate exposure as the main event favorite. I am not completely sold on his ceiling though and with 14 fights on the slate, coming in underweight is not a bad lever to pull.

Lopes is priced at 7.7k and is a fine tournament target.

I assume he’ll be relative chalk as well, coming off a 131 point score over Silva. He scored 37 points against Volkanovski in the first fight and would be a reasonable cash game target regardless.

But he needs a finish to win, most likely, and that won’t be easy. It’s not really a spot I want to bet on. It is a spot I’m afraid of being too light on though, just given the situation.

So I’m not necessarily looking to load up here on Lopes, and I’d be fine to come in underweight if he projects to be 30-40 percent owned. But he is only +120 to win and +175 to win ITD, so he has really strong upside and a reasonable path to hit it on paper.

My slight lean would be to hope Volkanovski outpaces Lopes to a decision and get off the chalk a little bit on both sides, but otherwise, both are worth moderate exposure, around the field percentage given the floors of both in wins at decent mid-range prices.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Volkanovski by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Fight Odds: Saint Denis -330, Hooker +269

Odds to end ITD: -270

DraftKings Salaries: Saint Denis 9.2k, Hooker 7k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an exciting fight here in the co-main event as Benoit Saint Denis will square off against Dan Hooker.

I love the grappling pace and storm that Benoit Saint Denis brings. He goes after his opponents relentlessly and usually overwhelms them.

I expect grappling to continue to be the main path to victory for Saint Denis going forward. It is what he did well on the regionals too. He does a good job of landing doubles against the cage. He also has a decent passing game and is submission capable on the mat with his aggressive backtakes.

Look, I don’t think Saint Denis is the best grappler or anything. However, he is competent and tenacious. He is also a very tough guy who can push a pace. He just shoots so many takedowns and is always pressuring his opponents, and he usually breaks them. He will continue to wreck the majority of UFC fighters on the mat.

I just don’t trust Saint Denis defensively as a striker or as a grappler though. In his UFC debut, he took an all-time beating against Zaleski dos Santos in a fight that certainly should have been stopped. He stayed tough in that fight and wasn’t finished. He absorbed 149 significant strikes in that fight and only dished out 67 in return. I am just not comfortable with people who absorb that many strikes, and Saint Denis’ striking style is too brawling based for my liking. He then got knocked dead against Dustin Poirier. So he clearly has some defensive striking issues.

I do think Saint Denis has a good rear body kick out of the southpaw stance though. He is also aggressive and it really frustrates and bothers opponents. So I do think he is knockout capable. I also think he is capable of outworking fighters on the feet as well. His defense REALLY scares me though, and he will certainly be knocked out again in the future. Even Thiago Moises landed some very big hooks at the end of round two in the pocket. Moises just didn’t have the power in his hands to totally make Saint Denis pay.

I also didn’t like the way Saint-Denis was beat up on the mat vs Moicano. It was a bad look and good grapplers can probably expose his defensive grappling.

I think Saint Denis will continue to win a lot of fights at this level with his grappling and pace, but I do think his lack of defense will cause him to lose fights.

Saint Denis will be taking on UFC veteran Dan Hooker who was most recently beaten up badly and submitted on the mat by Arman Tsarukyan. As you would expect from a City Kickboxing product, Hooker is mostly a striker and a pretty good one. Hooker lands 4.89 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.73 in return.

That is good volume and Hooker is capable of landing a lot of strikes. He also had a very impressive win against Jalin Turner in a fight where many people counted him out.

Hooker is still absorbing a lot and defending strikes at a poor 50 percent. So I do worry about his defense and his fights are a bit nerve racking to bet on because striking fights are high-variance, especially when both men are landing often. 

I considered Hooker a pretty durable guy but he has been knocked out by both Michael Chandler and Arnold Allen. His durability held up against Turner, but I am a little more nervous about him going against heavy hitters as I just hate when guys take damage because my confidence in their durability decreases.

Hooker doesn’t wrestle all that often and only lands 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a decent grappler though. Hooker also defends takedowns at 77 percent which is solid. He is also a pretty tough guy to submit. I have overall always respected the defensive grappling ability of Hooker. I haven’t seen him controlled all that often by many people. 

He defended well against Gamrot. He was taken down 5 times but worked up a lot and did a good job. Tsarukyan had a lot of success though and roughed Hooker up on the mat. That is Tsarukyan though who is one of the best power wrestlers in the UFC.

I still do think BSD can land takedowns here though, and I do think he can probably get some good positions early and put Hooker in danger. He honestly may finish Hooker quickly.

If that finish doesn’t come though, this could get sketchy. Hooker isn’t bad defensively as a grappler and has shut down lesser grapplers than Tsarukyan. Hooker is likely the better striker in an extended fight too. So if Hooker can weather the early storm, I really do think he can get some striking time and maybe even hurt BSD.

I still think Hooker is a bit older now and a bit declined and I do think BSD is very difficult to deal with for a round or two. So the pick is BSD but this could get wild.

—

On DraftKings, I’m hopeful for the fantasy upside of this matchup as is the case with essentially all of Saint Denis matchups.

Saint Denis has won eight times in the UFC and he’s never scored less than 104 DK points, showcasing elite upside as well with scores of 146, 139 and 126. In losses, he’s allowed 108, 97 and 93.

So every single one of BSD’s fights have resulted in a strong fantasy score. It’s a good bet to happen again, especially as this matchup is -270 to end inside the distance.

Saint Denis is priced up to 9.2k but I expect him to be quite popular with his elite box score. Plus, Hooker was just finished on the mat so people will see the finish as fairly straightforward.

I don’t necessarily think that’s the case, and I worry a little bit about BSD in this matchup, but at the same time if he wins, we know what it will look like. He will fight super aggressively, grapple, and hunt for a finish. He’s -180 to win ITD which is one of the best lines on this slate.

So I really have no problem with prioritizing Saint Denis yet again. The biggest issue is that he might be chalk at 9.2k so if he scores 105, for example, he might simply miss the optimal lineup.

His floor feels very safe in a win and he clearly has a strong ceiling as well, so moderate exposure to Saint Denis this week is probably correct. Don’t expect him to be overlooked though.

Hooker is a solid leverage play at 7k.

BSD is defensively void, and Hooker is very experienced. This isn’t so far beyond the comparison to a BSD vs. Poirier matchup, where I expect BSD to have some ground success, but it may not immediately result in a finish. On the feet, Hooker has TKO upside.

Hooker has no real floor, and I’m not picking him to win. I am confident BSD will get hurt again though. Considering Hooker will be quite low owned, and super leverage against BSD, this is simply one way to be different.

Hooker is only +525 to win ITD so he won’t rate out incredibly well but I’ll bet on the overall ITD potential of the matchup, and his leverage, and mix him in alongside the field or a bit overweight.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Saint Denis by Arm-Triangle, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Fight Odds: Ruffy -118, Fiziev +101

Odds to end ITD: +125

DraftKings Salaries: Ruffy 8.2k, Fiziev 8k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a fun fight here between fellow strikers in Rafael Fiziev and Mauricio Ruffy.

Rafael Fiziev comes from an extensive Muay Thai background. He is a skilled and explosive striker, especially with his kicking game to the body and to the legs. He can also fight out of both stances. 

Fiziev doesn’t grapple much and only lands 0.89 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t really expect offensive grappling to ever be a consistent way for him to win fights, which is a negative, as it limits his ways to win fights. However, he defends takedowns at a stellar 90 percent which is a positive as Fiziev can generally manufacture striking fights where he thrives. He did land four takedowns in his last matchup against Ignacio Bahamondes though.

It is funny that Fiziev’s striking ratios are actually not very good. He lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.77 in return and only defends strikes at 50 percent. So he can be hit.

I do think Fiziev hits hard from a strike per strike basis though and will continue to win fights if he is just in the general ballpark of his opponent’s strike count. So he will probably continue to outperform his striking metrics as he just generally hits harder than his opponents.

I do worry about Fiziev’s cardio. He is extremely explosive early but he has slowed down in many three round fights that I have seen him in, even dropping round three to Marc Diakiese and Bobby Green. I don’t think Fiziev’s cardio is awful or anything, but it is definitely not a strength of his.

Lastly, I do worry about Fiziev’s durability a bit. He was finished by Magomed Mustafaev in round 1 and he was also hurt by Bobby Green to a degree in round 3. Again, I don’t think his durability is awful or anything and maybe I am overreacting, but striking is a high-variance sport and he will always be at risk to get hurt.

Also, Fiziev has been plagued by injuries. He injured his knee against Gamrot in September of 2023 and then fought less than a year ago on short notice against Justin Gaethje. I honestly thought he looked awful in that matchup vs Gaethje. He gassed after a round and just didn’t look nearly as good pre-injury. I give him a bit of a pass as the fight was on short notice. He had a nice bounce back win against Bahamondes where he looked more himself. 

Fiziev will be taking on fellow striker Mauricio Ruffy. Ruffy is 29 years old and 12-2 professionally. He booked his ticket to the UFC by beating a good Russian opponent on the Contender Series in October of 2023.

Ruffy has since fought four times in the UFC, defeating Jamie Mullarkey, James Llontop, and Bobby Green, winning by knockout twice. He then most recently lost by getting outgrappled by Benoit Saint Denis.

Ruffy is a striker. He has a Capoeira base that is flashy and is very much a sniper. He will use footwork and movement on the outside. He will land kicks and throw spinning strikes, but his bread and butter is his straight right hand. He has a ton of power and will continue to hurt and knockout opponents in the UFC. 

Ruffy can be low volume at times though and his striking metrics aren’t great as he lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.16 in return. He can also slow down a little bit too. So he isn’t perfect on the feet. However, he generally doesn’t get hit clean and he lands so much harder than his opponents so he is a fighter that will likely continue to outperform his striking metrics.

Ruffy doesn’t grapple much offensively. Defensively, he isn’t terrible but he did get outgrappled by BSD. Tenacious and good grapplers can take advantage of him but I don’t think he is a major liability defensively as a grappler.

As far as this matchup goes, these guys are kind of similar. They strike differently but they are both power based strikers who can tire a bit if they go over the 60-70 significant strike mark. I think Fiziev is a little more skilled with the basics and I also think if someone has wrestling success it will be Fiziev. So I do lean him a bit. 

However, Ruffy is maybe a bit better from long range, and will have a 3 inch height advantage. Ruffy may also have a durability edge. Either guy could hurt the other.

I generally just expect this to be a competitive striking fight where whoever lands the bigger power strikes / damage will win. It is hard to call there because I don’t think either guy will get ahead drastically on the numbers and damage is hard to project on evenly matched striking fights. 

I still just think Fiziev is a little more skilled on the basics and if someone lands a takedown to swing a round it will probably be him, and his offensive grappling has come into play in his last two fights. He landed 2 takedowns against Gaethje and 4 against Bahamondes. So I will pick Fiziev but no strong opinions here.

—

On DraftKings, this doesn’t set up as a fight I’m particularly interested in.

The odds for it to go the distance are -150, and both fighters are mid-paced strikers. So if we get a decision, we likely get a bust.

Even with takedowns landed, Fiziev scored 82 DK points in his last win. That’s just not enough.

I suppose I lean toward Ruffy for knockout equity of the two. He is +230 to win ITD, while Fiziev is +400. If someone randomly wins by KO, I would lean Ruffy.

If you want to target him some at 8.2k, be my guest. He didn’t even put up 70 DK points in his last decision win though, so he’s ultra boom or bust. These are typically spots I stay away from, so I won’t have much Ruffy personally.

Conversely, Fiziev could win at 8k, though his finishing equity concerns me. Wrestling probably isn’t enough for him to separate at this price tag. I’m not particularly excited to roster him.

Personally, if I’m making 20 lineups for example, I’m going to have very limited exposure to this fight. My guess is the field will feel similarly though Ruffy is a big enough name to get a bit of love. Mixing both in with a larger portfolio is acceptable and although I’d lean Ruffy, neither rates out well for me this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Fiziev by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira

Fight Odds: Teixeira -332, Tuivasa +271

Odds to end ITD: -1000

DraftKings Salaries: Teixeira 9.1k, Tuivasa 7.1k

Weight Class: HW

We have a hilarious HW matchup between Australia’s own Tai Tuivasa and massive hitter Tallison Teixeira.

Teixeira made his UFC debut in February 2025, and promptly knocked out Justin Tafa in just 35 seconds. That earned him his 8th professional victory with all eight wins coming in the first round, and it’s no surprise the UFC wants to push him.

So they gave Teixeira a main event opportunity against Derrick Lewis in July, and that did not go well. Teixeira threw heavy shots right out of the gate and looked to hurt Lewis, but in the follow up exchanges, Teixeira got dropped and finished himself. The fight only lasted 35 seconds.

There is some question as to whether the fight was deserving of being stopped as Teixeira was working his way back up, but the point remains, his lack of defense got him caught badly and he was finished because of it.

Teixeira previously earned his contract with another quick finish on the Contender Series, knocking out his opponent in less than two minutes in a high-action affair. It was honestly the most competitive two minutes of Teixeira’s pro career, in what has otherwise been a few seconds of domination.

Teixeira actually ate a bunch of shots in those exchanges too, and I definitely think it poses a longer term question about his defense. He didn’t look super evasive, and although he didn’t react poorly to eating those shots, it does feel like bigger hitters can potentially put him away.

On the regional scene, most of Teixeira’s fights lasted less than two minutes. As the bigger, longer, more athletic fighter in those matchups, Teixeira was largely able to walk his opponents down, throw big strikes, and get quick finishes.

I do really like Teixeira’s offensive output and ability to inflict damage. Part of it does come down to his size as well. He’s massive at 6’7” with an 83-inch reach, and he’s powerful as well.

I also think he’s technically solid offensively. He can throw the jab. He can throw leg kicks, and high kicks. He looks offensively potent to me and I think it’s pretty likely Teixeira can knock out most of the mid or even upper tiers of this heavyweight division on pure potency alone.

The issue of course is what happens after a few minutes. As of now, there isn’t an answer. I highly doubt Teixeira can keep up a high pace for many rounds. I’ve never really seen him wrestle, though apparently he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and holds one win by submission. His striking defense looks very questionable to where he could very well just be the type to both win and lose by early KO.

At the least, Teixeira rates out as a solid, dangerous HW striker who is only 26 years old and should put on some good performances here and there. Time will tell exactly what his ceiling capabilities are, but for now it seems fair to be skeptical.

Tai Tuivasa was once in the position of Teixeira, a young killer with some hype behind his name, and he’s fared well for himself with eight victories inside the Octagon. He is probably on his last run in the promotion though, and is coming off five consecutive losses. 

He introduced the UFC to “shoeys” and that’s now become his staple and the main association with his brand. Everytime he wins, he’ll immediately run into the crowd to get a random person’s shoe, pour beer into it, and drink it up. He’s publicly declared many times that he likes when people spit into it too. It’s honestly very gross but it feels worth noting.

So yeah, we’re not exactly dealing with the best and brightest of the sport this weekend. Instead we get pure entertainment both during and after the fight, which is sometimes more fun.

Tuivasa’s fighting style is a lot like his personality too. He’s a big guy, but he’s not particularly in shape, and he likes to crash the pocket and throw heavy hands.

Of his eight wins in the UFC, seven of those have come by knockout, including five in the first round. I feel bad but Tuivasa just doesn’t have many other tools for us to expect that trend to continue.

He’s never landed a takedown in any of his 16 UFC bouts, nor does he defend them well at 57 percent. He’s also getting outstruck historically while landing 3.77 sig. strikes per minute, and absorbing 5.18 per minute with a super poor 44 percent defensive rate.

That’s the worst part, that even in striking based fights, Tuivasa is getting largely beaten up. He’s been knocked down six times in his UFC losses, and I would say his bigger issue is with his defensive wrestling and grappling.

But heavyweight is a crazy division, and Tuivasa throws with fight-ending power. He can also throw leg kicks. If he can get in close, he can rough you up and score an early knockout. If not, he’s probably getting outstruck himself, getting hurt, getting taken down, and getting another loss on his record.

While I completely understand Teixeira being favored in this spot, I can’t say I feel completely confident in him. How can you? The guy has limited defense and has never seen the second round.

While Tuivasa doesn’t have a lot of skill, he will try to win. Even when he’s hurt he’ll throw big shots. He has a second round KO win over Derrick Lewis, and he knocked down Ciryl Gane. He is live in striking based fights.

Teixeira will still have a grappling edge with his BJJ background but there’s no way to project him to wrestle here, and therefore, I do expect these men to strike. Teixeira will be five inches taller with an eight inch reach advantage, and he’ll probably try to crush Tuivasa quickly.

I wouldn’t be shocked if he succeeded. Pavlovich KOd Tuivasa with 2 KDs in 54 seconds. That is the only time in his career that Tuivasa has been KOd in round 1 though.

If this fight extends past a round, you can definitely argue Tuivasa is the favorite. He still isn’t going to be the better or more dangerous striker outright, but I really don’t know if Teixeira can keep up a pace past the first round, and realistically he could get hurt at any time. Tuivasa has at least seen decisions, won decisions, and scored multiple RD 2 KOs.

The pure size and power advantage of Teixeira is probably too much for him to overcome and I guess I’ll pick a RD 1 KO win for Teixeira but just given his profile, and lack of defense, this still feels like a somewhat high-variance fight where either man can and may get hurt.

—

On DraftKings, this should be a popular fight to target as it is -1000 to end inside the distance.

I’m not sure if the public will be willing to pay up to Teixeira at 9.1k, coming off that ugly loss to Lewis. Saint Denis is priced right above him and could be popular.

I also tend to get nervous with boom or bust KO artists at expensive price tags. Clearly there is room for the fight to bust.

However, Teixeira is -250 to win ITD and +135 to win in RD 1 which are the best odds on this slate. His profile suggests an early KO is most likely in a win. So realistically, we should expect 100-110 points from Teixeira.

I’m not completely sure that will be enough, but I’m happy to get back on board Teixeira to a degree this week. Especially if you can’t pay up further, Teixeira rates out as a strong upside target given his style.

He may not have the best ceiling on this slate if he can’t win inside 1 minute, and I do like other fighters in this range, but Teixeira is a fairly easy play given his high likelihood to win by early KO.

Tuivasa is priced at 7.1k and is a fine tournament option too.

I don’t have a lot of faith in him but he has KO upside. The most likely outcome for him in a win is an early KO.

Tuivasa is +275 to win ITD which is decent for 7.1k and I kind of doubt he’ll be that popular, coming off five losses in a row. He’ll carry decent leverage against Teixeira too.

I won’t go crazy on ownership here but this just seems like an obvious underdog target to a degree. I’ll play him as a low-end option around the field, or slightly above, who is benefited by clear ITD potential and leverage against his opponent.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Teixeira by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Fight Odds: Salkilld -1049, Mullarkey +697

Odds to end ITD: -750

DraftKings Salaries: Salkilld 9.7k, Mullarkey 6.5k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Coming off one of the most brutal knockouts in recent memory, Quillan Salkilld is looking to create more violent moments in the Octagon this weekend against Jamie Mullarkey.

Salkilld’s knockout by head kick on Nasrat Haqparast was truly insane. I am pretty immune to UFC violence at this point and my jaw dropped. It was a brutal knockout.

Salkilld is an Australian fighter who is 10-1 professionally. He has won his first four UFC affiliated fights.

I think Salkilld is strongest as a pace grappler. In his two UFC decisions against Gauge Young and Yanal Ashmouz, he landed 9/22 and 8/23 takedowns attempted respectively. I do love that pace.

I do think Salkilld is a mildly skilled wrestler but he definitely lacks in some technique and efficiency in his takedowns, and I do think he lacks physicality in certain positions. I don’t think he will outwrestle the higher tiers of this division. 

However, Salkilld is super tenacious and he will absolutely beat low to mid level tiers of this division with his pace grappling. He has a decent double leg and uses a lot of tall man techniques to take the back. He can ride the back with clasped hands and can also put hooks in and threaten with submissions. He is a bit sloppy though and can fall off from top position at times though. He also tired out a bit against Ashmouz and started getting tuned up a bit in round three.

As a striker, Salkilld is competent but not great. He can land some decent kicks and some straight punches. He isn’t bad. He obviously showed some danger vs Nasrat but I am not sure I project him as a huge knockout finisher. He outlanded a mildly okay striker in Gauge Young 70-57 at range. However, he still keeps his chin in the air and can get landed on clean. I do think he is going to get knocked out by more physical and faster strikers.

Still though, Salkilld attempts a ton of takedowns and is a mildly skilled grappler so he should be able to secure wins here and there. He also seems tough and can strike a bit too.

Salkilld will be taking on UFC veteran Jamie Mullarkey. I kind of just consider Mullarkey a generalist. He is not great, but he is a tough guy and will fight hard on the feet and on the mat.

Mullarkey’s striking metrics are pretty average. He lands 4.20 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.34. He defends strikes at 54 percent. Mullarkey is willing to brawl a bit and make his opponents uncomfortable. He also has underrated power. Two of his wins in the UFC have come by knockout and he even stunned Jalin Turner in round one of their fight.

However, there still are definitely weaknesses in Mullarkey’s striking game. He isn’t the greatest athlete and his defense is not very good. So he can be hit and hit hard. I consider him tough, but he has been knocked out several times in his career now. He has also been hurt several times in fights where he was not finished. So variance is surely in play for him and him getting randomly knocked out is always a possibility. His durability really scares me to be honest.

Mullarkey is a decent grappler, and I like his game much more when he mixes up strikes and takedowns with his pace. He actually lands 2.40 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 8 takedowns per fight. He is capable of floating on top. He isn’t the most dangerous submission grappler with only a few submissions in his career. However, I think he is capable of submitting weak grapplers. He defends takedowns at 78 percent.

As far as this matchup goes, I have to favor Salkilld because of durability alone. Salkilld is tough, and I would be pretty surprised if Mullarkey finished him. On the other hand, Salkilld is semi-dangerous and Mullarkey’s durability is very suspect. My guess is Salkilld hurts him at some point during the fight and it will probably result in a finish.

I actually do think outside of durability, Mullarkey can compete to a degree. Mullarkey isn’t in over his head as a technical striker or grappler here. Mullarkey may be able to land a takedown, defend some, and land some strikes of his own here and there. I just hate the durability and career trajectory of Mullarkey though so my guess is youth gets it done here.

—

On DraftKings, Salkilld is priced up to 9.7k and the public will be looking to him as an elite finishing option.

I get it, and on paper, Salkilld is very likely to win ITD with a -550 finishing prop, which is the best on this card. Mullarkey has been knocked down five times in his last four losses, all of which have been TKOs. I suppose I lean toward Salkilld winning this fight by TKO too.

My concern honestly is that if we’re backing Salkilld to win by TKO, I don’t particularly think he’s worth 9.7k. I want to play Salkilld because he can attempt 25 takedowns in a fight, not because he can win by TKO.

To illustrate this, in Salkilld’s last KO win, he scored 106 DK points. In his two previous decisions, he scored 117 and 120.

Maybe he will try to wrestle here, but maybe not. Mullarkey is an OK wrestler and defends at 78 percent. If you told me we were getting 25 takedown attempts, I’d want to play Salkilld for sure, but I’m skeptical that’s the kind of game plan he comes in with.

I view Salkilld as a relatively safe target this week. He probably wins ITD and probably scores 100ish DK points. He has huge historic upside as well. Mullarkey has never given up more takedowns than he’s landed in a fight though and without the elite grappling pace, I don’t view Salkilld as a must target in this range.

If I have the ability to pay up for Salkilld, great, I’ll consider him. I don’t want to completely discount him for the historic upside alone. But in this matchup if he’s hunting a TKO, I’d almost rather pay down to similar ITD options 9k range, and I’d be perfectly content coming in underweight.

Mullarkey is priced at 6.5k and doesn’t interest me much.

I wouldn’t think it was crazy if the fight was competitive. He can wrestle and strike OK. The durability is the biggest issue. I still don’t think Mullarkey wins this fight often but it could be a semi-competitive decision for Salkilld where Mullarkey hangs on just fine.

He’s nearly +700 to win though, so he just lacks the win equity I’d want to make any real investment. He’s +1000 to win ITD. His upside is reasonable as he probably would need multiple takedowns to win, though he’s had trouble surpassing 80 DK points in recent wins.

It just doesn’t feel worth it to make any real investment in Mullarkey this week so I only consider him a large-field tournament dart throw.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Salkilld by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

UNDERCARD

Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana

Fight Odds: Elekana -249, Tafa +207

Odds to end ITD: -360

DraftKings Salaries: Elekana 8.9k, Tafa 7.3k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with a light heavyweight clash, as the hometown Junior Tafa looks to get back on track against Billy Elekena. Let’s dive in. 

Junior Tafa hasn’t had the best start to his UFC career, as he has gone 2-4 and added some blemishes to his once perfect record. He came into the UFC with some hype, as he was an undefeated boxer with a solid resume and a 100% finish rate. Although that finish rate stays with him to this day, we have seen some holes in his game, as he has been finished by Valter Walker, Tuco Tokkos and Marcos Rogerio de Lima inside the Octagon. 

Offensively, Tafa is a force to be reckoned with. He has incredible power, great hand speed and carries that power late. Despite this, he is solely a boxer and that one dimensional style has been exposed a few times in the UFC. He excels from boxing range, but we have seen him succumb to leg kicks and lose from range, as well as struggle in close and on the mat. 

In the grappling realm, he has a 69% TDD, but has been taken down by 5/6 of his opponents a total of 11 times and is now 0-2 to the submission. Most recently, Tuco Tokkos, who was 0-3 in the promotion, took down Tafa and dominated him on the mat, making him look like a much better fighter than he is. 

The glaring hole in his ground game is a true issue for the light heavyweight as he has struggled with submissions but also getting up, having been controlled for over 12 minutes in his UFC debut as well. His two wins inside the Octagon are both striking based, the first being a 84 second KO over Parker Porter, and the next being a RD2 KO over Sean Sharaf who death gassed early into the second and went a total of 1/8 in the TD department, leading to his downfall. 

Either way, the recipe against Tafa is simple. Stay all the way out, leg kicking from the outside, or be all the way in, beating him on the ground where he is highly susceptible. 

From boxing range, he truly is dangerous and is someone who cannot be counted out for that reason. But he does really have to shore up that TDD, ground game and distance striking before being someone I can trust at the top of the division. 

Billy Elekena makes his fourth walk to the Octagon this weekend after starting 2-1 under the UFC banner. The American light heavyweight is fresh off back-to-back victories of vastly different styles.

Against Ibo Aslan in July, he was able to outpoint him to a 15 minutes striking based decision which was largely considered a boring affair. However against Kevin Christian in November, he was able to club and sub his opponent in the very first round, getting his first UFC finish. 

Elekena now has multiple wins in the UFC, PFL and LFA, some reputable organizations. He is a well-rounded fighter who is capable on both the mat and on the feet. In the striking department, he is lower volume, averaging only 2.66 strikes landed per minute, although he does have solid power with 3 KO victories on his record. He is also capable of wrestling, where he took a round off of Bogdan Guskov in his debut. 

From top position, he is able to earn control, but also has a solid submission game, with 2 submissions to his name. With that being said, he is pretty meat and potatoes in his game and won’t blow you away with technicality or speed, but is well-rounded enough to take advantage of his opponents weaknesses wherever they may be. 

Defensively, I have my concerns. He is only defending strikes at 46% and we have seen him wobbled before. Additionally, with slower striking and entries, he is there to be countered. On the mat, we have seen him submitted before, but I do think he is capable of holding his own. 

Overall, Elekena is just solid everywhere. He won’t blow you away and I don’t see him anywhere near a top-10 talent, but he is able to compete in all areas and if his opponents aren’t able to keep up, he is able to finish lower level fighters. In all, Elekena is a well-rounded wrestle-boxer who is able to hold his own, but needs to shore up his speed or defensive tendencies if I’m going to trust him at a high clip in this division. 

This is a truly ugly matchup. I’m not that high on Elekena and do think that his ceiling is limited. In the striking, I actually favor Tafa here. Tafa’s a very good boxer with better speed and power in my opinion. But like I said, Elekena is well-rounded enough to exploit his opponent’s weaknesses and Tafa has one of the largest deficiencies I have ever seen on the mat. He made Tokkos look like a god down there and it was evident against Usman that there is almost zero ability to get back to his feet. 

So it’s quite simple. If Elekena has even three brain cells left, he should be shooting a takedown early and have the ability to win on the mat. I also think Elekena has the cardio and is capable enough in his striking to compete on the feet if this gets extended, but the path of least resistance is on the mat. So I guess give me Elekena, although I will admit it’s more due to a lack of skill from Tafa than thinking Elekena is that much better. 

—

On DraftKings, this fight has some fantasy appeal and I think most will side with Elekana this week.

It’s hard not to, as he’s coming off a submission win, while Tafa has looked awful on the ground in many recent fights. I assume most will pick Elekana to win by sub, and at 8.9k, he’ll be a viable tournament option.

I have mixed feelings personally because I think Elekana is incredibly boom or bust. I am highly concerned about his output. He simply is not an aggressive fighter, and I don’t know that he will be hunting for a finish here. Even his last RNC win came from a KD, not a takedown.

In his last decision, he attempted three takedowns in 15 minutes, and only landed 35 distance strikes. That win scored 44 DK points.

Now at 8.9k, I am very nervous that this fight will extend and Elekana will underperform. If I thought he’d wrestle heavily, I’d want to play him. I am far from sure that he will. In fact, this fight is actually -154 to go OVER 1.5 rounds, although the ITD total is -360.

I can’t blame you for playing Elekana. I consider him a fine secondary target, especially if you’re starting your lineups in the lower 9k range and can’t pay up further. Mixing him for finishing equity is fine, and he has a real path to an early submission with an -150 ITD prop.

He is extremely low volume though, and he hasn’t proven he will wrestle at a high rate. If the fight hits round two, I am guessing he won’t be optimal. So although Elekana rates out OK on paper, he won’t be a top priority for me this week.

Tafa is priced at 7.3k and is a fine boom or bust play.

Elekana was TKOd in his UFC debut though it was primarily due to cardio and him taking the fight on short notice. Still. Tafa hits hard and is +265 to win ITD. 

At 7.3k, he’s a reasonably cheap play who has early KO equity. He shouldn’t be owned much and he could be leverage against Elekana. I’m not a real fan of him though, and won’t pick him to win.

Tafa ultimately rates out OK for the price and we know he has some path to a TKO, but he’s still a low-end target for me who I’ll play around the field percentage.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Elekana by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Cam Rowston vs. Cody Brundage

Fight Odds: Rowston -368, Brundage +296

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Rowston 9.3k, Brundage 6.9k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

Cody Brundage is back (yayyyy) and looking to get another UFC victory as he takes on the hometown Cam Rowston. Let’s dive in.

Cody Brundage is a polarizing figure inside the UFC. Considering his past history of accepting No Contests and looking for the easy way out sometimes, he is someone often criticized inside the UFC. He is also the proud owner of a 1-1-1-1 record in his last four, with a win, loss, draw and No Contest sprinkled in. 

All jokes aside, Cody Brundage is a dangerous wrestle-boxer who is also game to fight anyone. Sporting a 5-6-1-1 record inside the promotion, some may wonder how he is still the owner of a contract, but with an 100% finish rate in the UFC and having fought scary competitors such as Bo Nickal and Mansur Abdul-Malik, he has earned his stay in the Octagon for the time being. 

Offensively, Brundage is a dangerous fighter early on. He has a 91% finish rate with 63% of those victories coming in round one. He has solid power on the feet with the ability to land power hooks and pressure early. Additionally, he does have a college wrestling background although most of his ground game comes in the form of his guillotine. 

Defensively, he does have his concerns as he has been finished 4 times but also dominated over the course of 15 minutes. See, although he is an explosive fighter early, his gas tank often lets him down and he slows heavily as the fight progresses. 

Additionally, he loses scrambles plenty while on the mat, not only by jumping guillotine but also by being overzealous and not having the ability to work his way back to the feet. 

Brundage is also someone who prioritizes moments over minutes, allowing him to be hit from range and loses optics. Now I know what you’re thinking. “Gordo, you’re usually so positive. Why so many negative points?”. Well the truth is, Brundage isn’t that good. He has solid power and finishing ability for a few minutes, and then struggles down the stretch. When he’s not winning early, he’s usually either jumping guillotine against a black belt, getting out grappled by horrible fighters like SD Dumas, or faking injury to be awarded a DQ victory. All results that leave you disappointed in him. 

However I will admit, there is a danger factor to Cody early. He does have power, he can wrestle well early. But if you survive the early blitz or drag him into deeper water, he will usually look for the way out. I would like Brundage to shore up his minute winning, cardio and defensive ground game before trusting him at too high of a clip in the UFC. 

Cam Rowston is the owner of one of my favorite UFC nicknames: the Battle Giraffe. As he is standing at 6’3 with an incredibly long neck, I do think it is fitting. 

Having dropped his first DWCS appearance to Torrez Finney back in 2024, Rowston has since bounced back under the UFC banner, having won his last two bouts in impressive fashion, both by first round KO over Brandon Holmes and Andre Petroski. 

The Aussie native now takes the stage in his hometown looking to keep his hot streak going. Watching tape on Rowston, you’ll notice lots of positive things. We know he has solid striking training out of City Kickboxing with the ability to fight well from range, and he has enough power to get KO victories out there. But the grappling is also impressive to note. 

I know Finney gave him a tour of the Octagon, but he is a capable enough grappler to get takedowns of his own and his front headlock series is pretty dangerous. He actually has more submissions than knockouts, with 7 Submissions to his 5 KOs for a total of a 92% finish rate. That aggressive style bodes well for him as he is able to compete in all facets of MMA. 

However, with the long strikes he is also able to be countered and we have seen his chin cracked before. Additionally, we have to mention the defensive grappling. He looks to be solid defensively and able to stay safe, but he was taken down 10 times by Finney in 2024 and although he was able to get up and have decent cardio, he was allowing Finney to get to his knees quite often. 

Despite this, I do think he is quite well-rounded elsewhere and someone to watch out for, especially due to his ability to find the finish on both the mat and on the feet. Overall, Rowston is a solid rangy boxer with power, output and the ability to mix it up on the ground. I would like to see his chin tested and his TDD improved before trusting him at too high of a clip though.

At the end of the day, this is a Cody Brundage fight and it could go terribly wrong. Sometimes the explosiveness of Brundage is just too much to handle. All 4 of his (legitimate) wins in the UFC are first round finishes and he is someone who you can’t count out early. But I can’t trust him to have success here. I think Rowston is the better minute winner, technical striker, has just as much power and has more cardio to sustain it for the duration of the bout. 

Additionally if Brundage is going to lose scrambles to Dumas and fail to hold down McConico that much, I do have to think Rowston has that path on the mat if he needs to as well. So although I do have questions about Rowston’s ability to take a shot and Brundage has an early path to land damage, I have to pick Rowston to win here due to his well-rounded skill set, ability to win minutes from the outside and the fact Brundage has struggled in extended affairs. Give me the battle giraffe to get it done on home soil. 

—

On DraftKings, Rowston is priced up to 9.3k and I’ll be rooting for him to win like he’s my own brother.

If you’ve followed me for a bit, you’ll know my seething disgust for Cody Brundage fights. He’s still a dangerous guy either, and I’m not even particularly high on Rowston, but I am hopeful Brundage can join the L column once again.

Rowston at 9.3k does feel expensive though. Particularly, I’m not even sure what his game plan will be. Is he going to hunt for a TKO? Will he wrestle? It may not matter as Brundage doesn’t do a whole lot outside of the first couple minutes, and Rowston will have finishing opportunities everywhere.

Rowston is -210 to win ITD which is pretty strong, and he seems like a strong upside target. I don’t mind him. I don’t necessarily feel safe with him, and I can make a cleaner case for some other targets in this range.

But to me Rowston adds to the long list of pivots off Salkilld at the very top. He saves a good bit of salary compared to Salkilld and still has paths to grappling and a finish. He may not be my top priority in this range but he’s a perfectly fine secondary/upside play who seems to have a decent shot to reach 100 points this week.

Brundage at 6.9k is a decent dart throw.

Rowston can be hit, and he can be taken down, so I’m not totally convinced Brundage can’t have early success. I’m not picking him to win ITD early but if he does win, my guess is that it will come early again. He’s +300 to win ITD which is OK.

He’s simply a low end target with some upside. Not a fighter I am prioritizing. Not a fighter I am excited to roster. He can land a couple takedowns, shoot a sub, or throw some bombs in RD 1 and maybe that’s enough. Worth a sprinkle I think but not much more.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rowston by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)mica

Jacob Malkoun vs. Torrez Finney

Fight Odds: Malkoun -145, Finney +124

Odds to end ITD: +155

DraftKings Salaries: Malkoun 8.6k, Finney 7.6k

Weight Class: 185

I’m very interested in this fight between Jacob Malkoun and Torrez Finney.

Malkoun has been one of my favorites to back in recent years. He’s a super tough, hard-working wrestler who maximizes his physical capabilities.

I wouldn’t label him a great athlete, or a great finisher. He’s somewhat mediocre. But he tries very hard, and has developed his wrestling and grappling to the point that he can win rounds against some of the best opponents in this division.

Unfortunately, we haven’t seen Malkoun fight since March 2024, so he’s been on the shelf for nearly two years. Last year, he posted about having a bulging disc in his back that was hitting his sciatic nerve, and it had gotten so bad to the point he could barely walk. He even contemplated retirement.

Now, he’s back. And I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have concerns. I am no medical doctor, nor am I Malkoun’s personal physician. I don’t know how his back feels, regardless of what he might say. I think there’s a chance he is permanently “ruined” and that this comeback is one for his mental health, to prove he can overcome difficult situations.

He may have also recovered fully and given two years outside of the sport, it’s also possible we see the best version of Malkoun. My best guess is that he is in good enough to compete here and that he can survive 15 minutes even with some pain, but I really don’t know.

Malkoun will be taking on recent DWCS winner Torrez Finney, who earned a win in his UFC debut over Robert Valentin.

Finney is 11-0 as a pro with seven wins by knockout and one win by submission. He’s a classic wrestler, who thrives with top control.

Finney was a two-time high school state champ in Georgia who then wrestled and played football at the University of Tennessee, Chattanooga. His wrestling for MMA is pretty strong, he’s a fairly physical fighter and he has a good double leg takedown.

He can also wrestle in volume which I like. He’s landed 7, 8 and 10 takedowns in his last three extended fights. It shows decent persistence and cardio.

However, I actually am quite low on Finney as a talent. His top game just isn’t that great, and I don’t think he can hold down decent wrestlers. The fact that he’s needed 7, 8 and 10 takedowns suggests that opponents are scrambling up against him.

In his UFC win, he actually landed eight takedowns, earned THIRTEEN MINUTES of control, and only won a split decision. He landed 17 total strikes with 13 minutes of top control, and essentially nearly lost to Valentin from full guard.

Finney can advance a little bit and pound out some bad wrestlers, but he isn’t a good enough submission grappler to control decent opponents.

I also think his striking is weak. He doesn’t have much of a range game, and he just throws some power shots. He’s been rocked before and I’d bet on a KO loss. I just see Finney as ultra-dependent on top control with a clear ceiling.

If Malkoun was healthy, I’d be very confident he wins this fight. Malkoun can be taken down, but Malkoun will scramble pretty urgently and he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He’s fought better competition like Brendan Allen, and had some success.

Finney should take him down though, so I can’t be fully confident. Malkoun is defending takedowns at 20 percent currently which is awful. So projecting Finney for several takedowns landed over 15 minutes may be fair.

I just don’t know what Finney can do from there. Maybe he can earn some control and if Malkoun physically cannot get back up, then I guess Finney will win. I don’t think Finney can land a whole lot of punches or submit Malkoun though.

Finney also hasn’t been tested defensively much. Let’s not forget, Malkoun lands 6.62 takedowns per 15 minutes and has topped out at 9, 8, 7 and 6 landed over 15 minutes. He is a better version of Finney and has a good single leg.

My guess is Finney will be a total fish on his back, if he’s put there. Malkoun might advance position, take his back and choke him out. Malkoun isn’t a great distance striker, but I’d still favor him there over Finney.

It’s hard to be fully confident given the health scare, and the fact that Finney likely has some wrestling success, but my hope is that Malkoun isn’t totally washed, and if so, I think he can scramble his way to some ground success of his own and potentially finish Finney.

—

On DraftKings, this is kind of a hilarious spot because both fighters are capable of landing 9 takedowns.

In Finney’s last win, he scored 98 points with top control and takedowns alone. He’s now 7.6k and if he wins, it will have to come from wrestling. He has clear upside given his style and he should be on your radar.

I really do not want to play him. I want to trust Malkoun. The public is pretty scared here though and the betting line is trending toward Finney. He is only +124 at 7.6k, so you can argue Finney is a really strong target this week. He’s only +325 to win ITD though.

Using him as a secondary target makes sense to me, and I think it’s possible he’s quite chalky. It’s a spot I will have to lean underweight in that case though, just because I don’t like his talent or the matchup on paper. It will be a risk but I’m absolutely betting against Finney longterm.

Still, for 7.6k, I can’t fault you for mixing him in frequently, especially if you’re worried about Malkoun’s health.

Malkoun is priced at 8.6k and I’m hoping he’s sneaky coming off the layoff.

In his wins, Malkoun has scored 79, 131, 129, and 114, and he would have smashed against Brundage too if Brundage hadn’t quit.

This isn’t the greatest spot on paper for Malkoun though because Finney is a good wrestler and we haven’t really seen him taken down. It could limit the upside of Malkoun, force an extended fight where he’s playing off his back too much, and he could bust.

I also think he has finishing equity, though he’s only lined +250 to win ITD. Again, maybe he’ll be sneaky.

This isn’t necessarily a jam him in type of spot because there’s risk in a number of different areas, but historically Malkoun is a strong fantasy asset and I’m very skeptical about how Finney will look when he’s not in control.

So I’m happy to be overweight to Malkoun this week. At 8.6k, he doesn’t cost a ton and shouldn’t be too popular. He’ll probably be leverage against Finney directly. It could go wrong but it’s one intriguing way to be a bit unique this week.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Malkoun by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott

Fight Odds: Micallef -137, Elliott +117

Odds to end ITD: +155

DraftKings Salaries: Micallef 8.4k, Elliott 7.8k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a well-matched fight here in the welterweight division between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott.

Elliott is British and is 12-3 professionally, with most of his fights taking place in Cage Warriors which is a solid regional promotion.

On the feet, he has some okay technical boxing, but I do not like his volume at all and he looks to just limit striking engagements. I don’t think he is bad on the feet but I do not think he is great either. I have also seen him hurt standing as well. 

He has a little speed and a little technicality though. He lands 3.50 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.24 in return. I think he is skillful and thrives mostly as a defensive striker. He is hard to hit. I just wished he put up more numbers offensively.

Elliott likes to mix in takedowns occasionally. He has a decent double leg, and he at least will mix in a healthy dosage of takedown attempts. He lands 1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes. The issue is I don’t actually think he is a good wrestler. He also doesn’t have the best top control. 

Furthermore, in his two regional losses, I have seen him taken down, mounted, beaten up and finished. I am also not quite confident in his physicality either. He looked really vulnerable in those two losses in the grappling exchanges in general. He then most recently lost to Seokhyeon Ko by getting taken down 6 times and controlled. I think his defensive grappling is okay but exploitable. We have also seen Elliott hurt from time to time too.

Overall, I think Elliott is a fine generalist who will probably thrive mostly by winning technical striking rounds on the feet or just exploiting an opponent who has a glaring hole in their game.

Elliott will be taking on Jonathan Micallef. Micallef is an Australian fighter who is 8-1 professionally. He is 26 years old. He fought in Hex in Australia which is a subpar regional promotion where he beat mostly poor competition.

Micallef made his Contender Series debut and won by random triangle choke in round one which booked his ticket to the UFC.

In his UFC debut, Micallef actually had a pretty good performance against Kevin Jousset. He outlanded Jousset 85-67 in significant strikes and kept up a good work rate. He also landed a knockdown.

I actually liked the volume and striking somewhat in that fight by Micallef. He fights out of the southpaw stance and has a really nasty rear kick that he mixes up to the body and occasionally goes high to the head. He can mix in punches behind his kicks but his rear kick is his best weapon. I think he is a fine volume striker. I do worry a bit about his defense though and he was knocked out on the regionals as well.

Before his UFC debut, Micallef actually clinched a lot and would sometimes turn that into back takes and top position. I think his BJJ is competent and decent but I don’t think he is a super strong wrestler either. He does have some tricks to find his positions though. I haven’t seen a ton of his defensive wrestling, but I have seen him scramble up decently. I want to see more of his defensive grappling though.

As far as this matchup goes, I am pretty torn. On the feet, I almost want to favor Micallef based on volume and aggression. He just tends to throw more than Elliott and that alone should keep him somewhat competitive as Elliott is happy to fight striking battles pretty close.

The issue is I do think Elliott is better defensively on the feet and Micallef can be hit. So Elliott may be able to pick Micallef apart to a degree if he decides to get aggressive. I do think Micallef may struggle finding Elliott at times. Both guys can be hurt too so random variance is at play.

I don’t really know how the grappling will go here. I don’t really have a ton of faith in Elliott’s defensive grappling but I do think he can probably minimize Micallef if Micallef chooses to wrestle. Micallef’s defensive grappling is still a bit of a mystery to me so I am unsure of the grappling upside of Elliott. I tend to think Micallef can scramble up if taken down though.

Overall, this looks like a competitive fight. Micallef has better pure volume, but Elliott may be more skillful and is better defensively. The grappling could be a wash but maybe someone has more success there than I am projecting. My hunch is we get a close competitive fight on the feet though. 

—

On DraftKings, this is another spot I’m not particularly excited to roster.

Micallef is priced at 8.4k and just scored 75 points in a win in his UFC debut. While he could wrestle, there’s nothing to suggest he’ll have extended success, and he attempted 0 takedowns in his UFC debut.

Therefore, I kind of consider him KO or bust from a fantasy standpoint. He is only +250 to win ITD and the fight is -190 to go the distance, which doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that he can score the finish. Elliott has been hurt before though.

Micallef rates out as a low-end secondary, boom or bust option. I probably won’t play him much or at all with a limited portfolio, but my guess is he’ll be fairly contrarian as well publicly.

Elliott is priced at 7.8k and I might prefer him slightly because I think he may wrestle more frequently.

But still, he’s scored 81 and 62 in his decision wins, so it’s hard to argue there’s a ton of upside without a finish. Elliott is only +450 to win ITD so he won’t rate out well. I believe he’ll also be pretty low owned.

This is just a gross fantasy fight to me, where you’re most likely hoping someone randomly gets hurt. It doesn’t seem smart to chase it, unless you’re aiming for the contrarian angle.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Micallef by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Kaan Ofli vs. Yizha

Fight Odds: Yizha -212, Ofli +179

Odds to end ITD: +145

DraftKings Salaries: Yizha 8.8k, Ofli 7.4k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a very random matchup here between Kaan Ofli and Yizha.

Ofli got a big win in his last matchup quickly submitting Ricardo Ramos as a big underdog. Ofli is 12-4-1 professionally and fights out of Australia.

Ofli worked his way through TUF by outgrappling his opponents and actually had a decent win against Nathan Fletcher. He then fought against Marion Santos in the TUF Finale and was knocked out in round two. Ofli was unable to get his grappling going and was stuck on the feet with the more powerful Santos, and just got beaten up. I think that will continue to be the story with Ofli. He will be reliant on grappling to win fights or he will have issues.

Ofli is a BJJ black belt and a decent grappler honestly. I thought his performance against Fletcher was good. He has alright takedowns and can threaten with backtakes. Five of his wins have come by submission. You saw against Ramos so he is somewhat capable. He also can control position decently. His defensive wrestling also seems decent.

That is all Ofli really has though. He is not a good striker. He is just basic and lacks a bit of physicality standing. He was knocked dead by Santos and I have seen him hurt consistently on the regionals. I have also seen him hurt a couple of guys but I generally think he will be on the wrong end of the damaged base striking exchanges at this level. Ofli is really going to have to grapple his opponents to win.

Ofli will be taking on Yizha who is coming off a first round KO over Weston Wilson. So Yi is a Chinese fighter with a lot of experience and has a record of 26-5. 

Yi is mostly a grappler and has a ton of submission wins. I do consider him a decent grappler in general. He has okay takedowns and can honestly threaten with submissions everywhere. In his first Road to UFC fight he landed a quick takedown and got a RNC. We have seen him get a couple more quick submissions in round one in his other Road to UFC fights as well. I don’t think his actual takedowns are great but they are okay, and he has skills. Yi can also fight for 15 minutes with no issue.

I still don’t think Yi is a great offensive wrestler though and he is only defending takedowns at 54 percent, and can be taken down and controlled a little bit. 

On the feet, Yi isn’t great but he is willing to throw down and does have some mild to moderate power.

I just think Yi is a gritty fighter. He isn’t very good but he has an element of danger with his strikes and submissions. As a round winner, he isn’t good but he isn’t a complete liability either and seems like a very tough guy as well.

As far as this matchup goes, I do favor Yi standing. I think Yi is just a little more physical and hits harder than Ofli. I think Yi is more durable as well and if anyone gets hurt here it will likely be Ofli so there is an advantage for Yi there.

I do think Ofli can potentially land takedowns though. I sneakily think Ofli is the better wrestler in general here, especially defensively. I think Yi is a little more susceptible to getting taken down and held down and controlled. We have seen it happen in a couple of fights for him. I honestly think Ofli is live for that reason.

Maybe Yi can stop takedowns or threaten with submissions? However, Ofli is a BJJ black belt and has never been submitted in his career. I honestly think Ofli can land takedowns and potentially lure Yi into a trap of Yi trying to go for submissions and failing and getting controlled.

Maybe Yi is just able to minimize the wrestling of Ofli and get a striking fight where he is probably at an advantage. So I am really not confident in a winner. However, I think Ofli is a live dog this weekend with his grappling so I am actually going to pick him for the upset. 

—

On DraftKings, this is another super low level fight but I have mild interest in it.

Yizha is coming off a 141 point win, which was two KDs and a Quick Win Bonus, but the level of competition matters and his opponent was not UFC level. Ofli is borderline UFC level but I’m not confident Yi can duplicate that outcome.

I consider Yizha a mildly dangerous finisher, and primarily on the ground. He is +230 to win ITD which is OK, and Ofli can be hurt.

The bottom line is that I don’t really want to chase exposure to Yi, hoping he can win by knockout. I’m less convinced he can easily submit Ofli, but even if that’s the case, it could realistically come from his back which concerns me for ceiling purposes.

I kind of hope Yi is popular coming off the big win, and I’ll aim to be light on him this week. He does carry enough finishing equity to mix in, but I strongly prefer many options priced directly above him.

Ofli is priced at 7.4k and I think he’s an intriguing underdog this week.

Yi defends takedowns at 54 percent and he’s been taken down by five of his last seven opponents. Ofli will likely attempt takedowns and I wouldn’t be shocked if he landed a few.

I don’t necessarily think that equates to a clear win for Ofli, but I lean toward him being the value side in the matchup. At 7.4k with some wrestling equity, I don’t mind him as a low-end secondary target.

He’s still only +425 to win ITD and doesn’t produce a ton of volume, so I’m going to be cautious here, but Ofli saves a bunch of salary and he’s one underdog I’m willing to roster a bit for the price tag.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yizha by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Dom Mar Fan vs. Sangwook Kim

Fight Odds: Fan -145, Kim +124

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Fan 8.7k, Kim 7.5k

Weight Class: 155 RTUFC Finale

The Road to UFC 155 pound finale will feature Dom Mar Fan vs. Sangwook Kim.

Fan is 8-2 professionally at age 25, and he’s earned one win by knockout and three by submission. He comes from Eternal MMA which is an Australian regional promotion, and both of his professional losses came to Quillan Salkilld by submission.

Fan is OK. I view him as a primary wrestler who spends a lot of time in the clinch. He has some decent cage takedowns and a double leg, and he’ll look to land ground-and-pound on top or hunt for the RNC.

He’s somewhat lengthy and physical, and I think his wrestling is OK. He can beat lower-level grapplers and he’s decent when he’s in control. He’s just not the best pure wrestler and clearly has limitations, and his striking game seems quite limited as well.

In his first RTUFC fight, Fan won by decision, landing two takedowns with eight minutes of control. He also yielded four minutes of control in that fight. He was outlanded at distance 27 to 13.

In the semifinals, Fan won by decision in a back-and-forth affair. He landed three takedowns and earned 10 minutes of control, but also gave up four takedowns and three minutes of control. Fan reversed position three times and gave up one reversal.

So it was essentially a bout where both fighters had good enough offensive wrestling, and poor enough defensive wrestling that they were changing positions for 15 minutes. Fan can scramble well which is nice but I don’t love his pure takedown defense.

He is decent at chasing the back and has some finishing equity there. I’ve just seen him get his back taken a few times as well and both of his losses have come by RNC.

I’m happy to play Fan against really poor grapplers but I doubt he will go too far in this division with a relatively limited arsenal.

Sangwook Kim is 13-3 professionally at age 32, and he’s earned five wins by knockout and four by submission.

He made it to the semifinals of RTUFC in 2023 where he lost to Rongzhu in a fun scrap. Now he’s coming off a submission and TKO win on season four to earn his spot in the finale.

I don’t think Kim is great but he’s a physical fighter and experienced. He reminds me of Fan in some ways, where he often lands takedowns, but he often gets taken down himself too.

I don’t view Kim as a great control fighter, but he’s shown a bit of a dangerous front headlock series, and his back control is OK. So his pure submission skills are fine, but still not spectacular.

In one of his more recent RTUFC wins, Kim gave up three takedowns but scrambled his way to the crucifix in the second round where he pounded out his opponent. In the semis, he landed three takedowns, took the back of his opponent and locked up the RNC in round two.

Kim just seems pretty tough. He’s never been finished. He’s not great anywhere but he’s not easy to beat either.

Like Fan, I don’t love his distance striking, but I guess I would favor him over Fan on the feet. Against Rongzhu, Kim was outlanded 123 to 82 and was beaten up to a degree, but that’s still a decent pace and one I doubt Fan can match.

Kim is actually an inch or two taller than Fan, but Fan has four inches of reach over Kim.

This is a weird fight and I don’t feel particularly comfortable with it.

I assume Fan will try to clinch and wrestle because that’s where he excels. I think he’s good enough to land some takedowns, and projecting him for 2-3 over 15 minutes makes sense. I think he could win rounds or take the back of Kim.

I also think Kim can take Fan down, though I’m a bit less sure he will. I don’t think he easily outscrambles Fan on the mat but maybe he can. Maybe he can take the back. It seems like another situation where both fighters will earn top control and have moments.

Kim probably has the advantage on the feet and at distance but I’m unsure how much time will be spent there. You also have to factor Kim is seven years older than Fan, but possibly more experienced in the right ways.

Ughh, I don’t have a strong stance here. I do think Fan has a more straightforward path via wrestling and control but I’m really not sold that comes easily. And if this becomes competitive on the mat and in the clinch, I might lean toward Kim for the additional striking damage.

—

On DraftKings, the reasons to consider playing it would be that we may see grappling exchanges, and we may see a finish.

The odds to end ITD are +120 which aren’t spectacular, but still indicate some finishing equity. Plus, I’m not sure the public will want to roster either side and I’d guess both fighters will be semi-contrarian.

Fan is priced at 8.7k and just feels a little too expensive to prioritize, especially with his odds falling. In his last two RTUFC wins, Fan would have scored around 100 in the semis, and in the mid 70s in the quarterfinals. The 100 point score came with 3 takedowns, 3 reversals and 10+ minutes of control.

So Fan does have a path, and given his style, I expect him to continue to try and wrestle. It gives him a decent floor in a win and potential to reach 100 points, especially if he can win ITD.

However, Kim has not been finished in his 16 pro fights, and Fan is only +230 to win ITD. I feel safer with some other options.

To me, Fan is best as a semi-contrarian target on a large slate, where he could be overlooked and disregarded. He’s not a standout but with grappling equity, he’s a viable secondary mix in.

Kim is priced at 7.5k and is probably my preferred target.

I’m not particularly high on him and I’m unsure if I’ll pick him to win, but I like the price tag more. I like that he can throw more strikes, and wrestle some, and he’ll carry some finishing equity. He’s only +350 to win ITD though so a finish is tough to bet on.

There just seems like a wider range of outcomes for Kim here. He’s scored extremely well recently on RTUFC but that’s because each of his fights have ended ITD. His last two wins scored 117ish and 105ish.

So I view Kim as a reasonable secondary target here for 7.5k, with a variety of paths to score, and hopefully he won’t carry much public ownership either.

This isn’t a fight to feel comfortable with or prioritize necessarily, but both fighters yield offense so the winner projects OK. I’ll lean slightly with Kim for the savings.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kim by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura

Fight Odds: Szalay -147, Nakamura +125

Odds to end ITD: -130

DraftKings Salaries: Szalay 8.1k, Nakamura 8.1k

Weight Class: 145 RTUFC Finale

I have mild interest in the featherweight finale between Sebastian Szalay and Keiichiro Nakamura.

Szalay is 10-1 professionally at age 31, and he’s earned two wins by knockout and one by submission. He was the champ in Eternal MMA which is a top Australian regional promotion.

Szalay is a karate black belt and a distance striker. I don’t think he’s a particularly good athlete, and I think his game actually sets up pretty poorly for the UFC.

I haven’t seen any competent offensive wrestling from Szalay, and at best, his defensive wrestling is adequate. He hasn’t been taken down and held down often, and his get-up game looks respectable. But I think strong wrestlers will have success against him, and probably take his back.

On the feet is where Szalay thrives, but he doesn’t carry a whole lot of power. He’s actually coming off a 47-second KO in the RTUFC semifinals but that was only his second career TKO win.

He rates out much better as a round winner where he is decent. He will play at distance, switch stances, and throw a lot of kicks. Opponents struggle to chase him down, and in that kind of style of fight, Szalay can surely win.

But I believe he is limited to that. I think when opponents back him down and close distance, they can land the harder shots. They can muscle him around a bit. They can land takedowns.

Szalay has good cardio and good technical striking, but he falls into the dedicated round winner type for me at this stage.

Nakamura is 7-1 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned six wins by knockout and one by submission. He trains under the tutelage of Japanese legend Yushin Okami.

I actually like Nakamura and I think he’s more ready to take on UFC level competition.

For starters, Nakamura is big. He’s 5’10” tall with a 70-inch reach, so he’ll be several inches taller and longer than Szalay. I consider him to be a better athlete and more physical and powerful.

Nakamura fights out of the Southpaw stance and likes to throw heavy shots. He throws a hard rear kick and left hand, and I generally consider him more power based than Szalay. He’s only gone to decision once.

But he’s not a boom or bust type. He had a decent scrap against Kaiwen in the RTUFC semifinals where he outlanded Kaiwen 82-44 at distance. He landed 15 distance strikes in RD 1, 38 distance strikes in RD 2 and 29 in RD 3, so his pace was solid.

I don’t see much of a grappling game from Nakamura though. I actually quite like his sprawl, and when I’ve seen him taken down, he’s scrambled up very quickly. So that gives me some confidence in his defense. I haven’t really seen him wrestle offensively, and his only loss came by sub in his pro debut in 2022.

Nakamura isn’t necessarily an elite prospect. Without a grappling game, he could be one-dimensional. He was tagged a bit in that most recent fight. I don’t think he easily runs away with striking rounds.

But he has a nice mix of power, athleticism and activity. I think he’s going to try and track Szalay down here and hurt him. I honestly lean toward Nakamura winning the fight too, because of his physical advantages and the pressure he will bring.

Szalay is probably the better technical striker and possibly just better at evading and kicking at distance. Maybe he could hurt Nakamura but I lean against it. I kind of think we’ll see Szalay running around the outside of the cage, avoiding exchanges and trying to extend the fight while Nakamura hunts him down and throws big shots.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the fight play out competitively because of it. Nakamura surely should win the optics battle and clearly has more power, but maybe he can’t track Szalay down easily. I don’t think either man wrestles at all.

I just see Nakamura landing the bigger shots and if Szalay slows down and can’t keep Nakamura off him, he could be in trouble.

—

On DraftKings, I’m not extremely high on this fight despite the ITD line being set at -130 (this has dropped from -160 earlier in the week which I agree with).

I like the O 1.5 here and I think the fight should probably be lined at O/U 2.5 rounds instead. Neither man has much of a submission or wrestling game to threaten the other so we’ll need to see standing KOs. Neither man has been finished by strikes, and Szalay very likely won’t want to exchange.

So my fear here is that there’s a lot of range finding early, Szalay running around, and neither man landing a lot of strikes. If we get 15-20 sig. strikes on each side in RD 1, there’s a real risk that the fight just busts.

Szalay is lining up as a value play currently with both men priced at 8.1k, while Szalay is now a -147 favorite. I could see him winning rounds but unless he wins by KO, I don’t think he’ll score much.

He’s only won by KO in 2/11 regional fights so I don’t think I’m willing to bet on that outcome. He is +300 to win ITD here which is mediocre.

I wouldn’t completely rule it out for variance alone but I view Szalay’s chances as being far better in an 80-strike decision type of fight, so I don’t really want to invest much in him at 8.1k this week on DK.

Nakamura at 8.1k hopefully won’t be popular as the underdog, though we’ll keep an eye on that line.

He isn’t as high volume at times, and I could see him landing 60 sig. strikes over three rounds, especially as Szalay is hard to chase down. So he might easily bust.

He is +165 to win ITD though, and I agree with him having the better finishing props. I’m more willing to take a chance on Nakamura because he will hunt for finishes, and he’s way bigger. 

It still lines up as a boom or bust play though, and I still lean toward the O 1.5 rounds hitting. So I’m not going to force in a ton of Nakamura. He is more palatable to me as a secondary upside target though, and ideally one with limited public ownership.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nakamura by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Sulangrangbo vs. Lawrence Lui

Fight Odds: Sulangrangbo -252, Lui +210

Odds to end ITD: -175

DraftKings Salaries: Sulangrangbo 9k, Lui 7.2k

Weight Class: 135 RTUFC Finale

We have an interesting 135 pound RTUFC Finale between young prospect Sulangrangbo and Lawrence Lui.

Sulangrangbo is 10-3 professionally at age 20, and he’s earned six wins by knockout and one by submission. He is the cousin of Sumudaerji and has worked extensively at the UFC PI.

Before we go any deeper, I want to reiterate that this is a 20-year-old kid. He has been fighting as a pro since he was 16, and he started his pro career 1-3. There are a lot of red flags in that kind of profile, and to be real, this kid literally lost three fights not THAT long ago to 0-0 opponents.

Since then, he’s beaten some crappy Chinese regional competition before showing well in his RTUFC quarterfinal and semifinal fight. I do think he looked good in his most recent bout, which he won by decision.

Sulangrangbo is a kickboxer with a Sanda background, and he’s a pretty sharp, technical striker who has some speed and power in his hands. He doesn’t have grown man strength, but his precision gives him power.

There isn’t a massive amount of tape on Sulangrangbo but he’s going to be a tricky test for low-level strikers. He can piece them apart and hurt them. He just landed 54 sig. strikes in three rounds, so his pace is mediocre.

I don’t foresee Sulangrangbo having real ground success, and my guess is that it could be a severe liability. Like his cousin, who is horrific on the ground, this 20-year-old has already lost via TKO from mount, and I am just doubting in his bottom game.

I’ve really never seen him on the ground, but he’s defended some basic shots well enough. One simple takedown won’t mean the end of the fight. My guess is a good chain wrestler can get him down and probably smash him, but that’s just a guess.

I honestly don’t like when fighters make it to the UFC this early as they simply aren’t developed enough. Could he win fights? Sure. But give him like 5-8 more years of training before we truly know what he is or can be.

Lawrence Lui is 7-1 professionally at age 29, earning four wins by knockout and three by decision. He trains out of City Kickboxing.

Lui isn’t a strong prospect and I don’t have much hope for him. He’s a very mediocre striker and a very mediocre grappler. He is tough though, and he’ll need to rely on that toughness to win.

The biggest issue I see with Lui is his striking defense. He has the dumb kangaroo/rabbit type stance where he holds his hands together in front of him. Not only does this leave him square, but it’s simply a poor way to defend punches because they can come around you or underneath the guard very easily.

So in a lot of Lui’s fights, he’s getting cracked. I’ve seen him get tagged a bunch in multiple fights where he comes back to win by KO. It’s not a Darren Elkins or Nate Landwehr type of beat down but ultimately I see his defense continuing to be an issue.

Lui will push forward though, and he has power. He knocked down both of RTUFC opponents and KOd the most recent one. He needs to get in close but against weak opponents, he can do that.

Lui also will try to wrestle some. He’s a purple belt in BJJ but he’s not a great wrestler. He actually landed six takedowns in his quarterfinal fight, somewhat out of desperation, but he didn’t earn a lot of top control. He was trying to take the back though so it’s at least a path he’ll try. He then went 0/5 on takedowns in the semis.

I’m pretty confident Lui won’t stick around longterm but he’s tough enough and he’ll try enough to give himself a chance.

I don’t love betting on 20 year olds, but I think Sulangrangbo is the better striker here, particularly defensively. He’s dropped multiple opponents with an uppercut which will be right there for him against Lui.

I don’t like to pick certain shots like that, but I expect Sulangrangbo to tag Lui a lot, and probably hurt him. I’m unsure if he’ll get a TKO but it seems possible, as does a relative beatdown for 15 minutes.

Lui isn’t out of the fight, and if he can close the distance, he can land big shots. He can probably throw similar volume to Sulangrangbo, but I don’t think he’ll have nearly as much success landing.

I assume he’ll try to wrestle which is the main thing that gives me pause. If my assumptions on Sulangrangbo are correct, I would not want to back him if he’s going to be taken down a couple of times. Lui is likely the better grappler, and I’d guess he even has finishing equity on the mat.

This is a true guessing game though and it’s probably not fair to assume Sulangrangbo is a total zero. I am guessing he’ll defend takedowns fine. But I am a bit nervous that 5+ attempts for Lui could lead to a back take and then the fight could be over.

That’s the main path I see for Lui at least and with the unknowns, I won’t count him out. I think he’ll be at a clear disadvantage on the feet though and especially on the defensive end, so Sulangrangbo is still the pick.

—

On DraftKings, Sulangrangbo is priced up to 9k and is a boom or bust option.

Even if he lands a KD and doesn’t win by TKO, I doubt he scores enough on a 14 fight slate to be optimal at this price tag. His volume hasn’t shown to be good enough, and 100 sig. strikes won’t matter. I think he needs an early KO.

Lui was knocked down in the first five seconds of his quarterfinal win, so it is possible. Sulangrangbo is +120 to win ITD. I lean a little more toward him beating up Lui and getting a later stoppage, where I’m unsure that would be enough.

Either way, I’m not sold on Sulangrangbo’s ceiling and don’t consider him a priority in this range. You don’t need to force him in and an extended, distance affair is a likely outcome.

I do think he has KD/TKO upside though and almost lean toward that outcome. He’s perhaps a decent pivot off BSD or Teixeira and can be labeled as a secondary/upside play.

Lui is priced at 7.2k and my only interest with him comes on the mat.

I just don’t see him being able to land a lot of strikes on Sulangrangbo. Maybe he wins by TKO but that’s a tough outcome in my mind. He’s +275 to win ITD which is quite strong for the price though.

I really don’t want to get caught up in this play so I’m going to be light on Lui, but perhaps he’ll rate out best as a sneaky play. I doubt he’ll be owned very much, and he won’t project well. There’s a small base outcome where he could dominate on the mat and win ITD, or get lucky with a big shot, so there’s at least some ceiling cases here.

Only a low end play for me but I’ll be curious to see if Lui can test the ground game.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sulangrangbo by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)

Namsrai Batbayar vs. Aaron Tau

Fight Odds: Batbayar -124, Tau +106

Odds to end ITD: -220

DraftKings Salaries: Batbayar 8.3k, Tau 7.9k

Weight Class: 125 RTUFC Finale

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night begins with a Road to the UFC flyweight finale between Namsrai Batbayar and Aaron Tau. Let’s dive in. 

Aaron Tau made an appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2024, making a solid first impression. Between the face tattoo and aggressive style, he was able to be a memorable part of that season, despite dropping that bout to Elijah Smith. He showed incredible heart and toughness, fighting all 15 minutes and attempting 94 strikes in the third round alone, despite being dominated early. 

Now off a run in the Road to the UFC competition, the City Kickboxing product is at home, ready to secure his spot in the UFC. Tau is a pressure fighter who likes to stalk his opponents and back them up against the cage. From there, he has good clinch work and solid power. He’s averaging 4.85 strikes landed per minute and has the ability to strike well technically from range but also unload on opponents if they show that they are hurt. 

Additionally, he is able to wrestle, landing 0.89 TDs per 15 minutes, where he does have solid top control. 

Despite these positives I’ve listed about him, there are some questions about his style. First of which is his lack of volume sometimes, as he stalks forward but doesn’t always engage in the output you would like. Additionally, he has been a smaller fighter sometimes, but down at 125 he does seem to fit in better than during his DWCS appearance at 135.

I also do think he lacks a bit of hand speed, as he’s able to be hit from range while he prefers his looping shots, but that can also be attributed to his take one to give one style that he has shown. Overall, Tau is an exciting fighter who will leave it all in the cage. He has solid pressure and striking, good durability and has shown the ability to give good output for 15 minutes in both the striking and grappling realm. 

However, I would like to see him improve his volume or distance optics before trusting him against tougher opponents.

Namsrai Batbayar is a 25-year-old Mongolian prospect who has impressed so far on the Road to the UFC. With a 100% finish rate in his wins and losses, the “Steppe Warrior” has put on entertaining performances and truly looked like a solid prospect, despite his lower level of competition. His one UFC loss comes to current UFC flyweight Nyamjargal Tumendemberel who has since done well in the organization and is not someone to be too upset to have lost to. 

Offensively, Batbayar looks solid. He passes the optics test when it comes to speed and aggression. He is always going forward, looking to land damage with a kill or to be killed mentality. His speed has to be mentioned twice here because it is truly dangerous, especially when you combine it with his power for the division. 

He also has the ability to grapple, with quick TD entries and solid ability to complete them, averaging 2.15 TDs per 15 minutes. He does struggle a bit on his back foot, but his aggression and power makes it so he’s often the one pressuring forward. From what I’ve seen, his chin and cardio has held up, but considering only one of his pro bouts has hit round 3, I still have questions about his cardio in a high paced affair. 

Overall, Batbayar looks good. He’s super crisp in the striking department with great hand speed and dangerous power. He also can struggle with volume and output, but will typically pressure forward to allow himself to land. He also can grapple at a solid clip and will look to be in control wherever this fight goes. 

I would like to see him improve his volume and show an ability to fight through adversity, but he looks like someone to look out for in this flyweight division.

I remember Aaron Tau from DWCS and he was someone who impressed me. I liked his heart, ability to take a shot, aggression and pressure forward style, he was just too small in that weight class. Now at 125, I think his style and lessons from Dan Hooker could help him succeed in this weight class. 

But I do think we have a classic skill versus heart battle here. I think Batbayar is better. He’s quicker, has better optics from range and can also wrestle well offensively, somewhere we’ve seen Tau struggle. 

But I’ve never seen Batbayar fight through adversity and if there’s one thing you can count on Tau to do is go forward and continuously look to kill his opponent. If that’s the case, and Batbayar can’t finish Tau here, how does he fair later on? Can he win his first decision? I’m not sure. 

From a pure skill perspective, I favor the offense that Batbayar brings. But I’m not sure he can win an extended war, which Tau will undoubtedly bring. Give me a shot on the underdog to get the night started, as the hometown Tau wins a high paced 15 minute brawl.

—

On DraftKings, I have some interest in this matchup for the high pace but I’m not particularly high on either fighter as a prospect.

Tau, in my opinion, isn’t great at anything. He’s kind of a punching bag but he definitely has heart, and he’s willing to brawl. That brawler mentality is what will allow him to succeed in this division.

I’m skeptical of Batbayar because he’s been fighting terrible competition on the Chinese regional scene. He lost to Tumendemberel who I’m not high on either. He has shown an aggressive grappling game and some power though, so perhaps he can continue to flash.

Batbayar has never gone the distance and Tau can produce finishes, so I’m not surprised to see the fight at -220 to end ITD. Because of that, both fighters will carry finishing equity in mid-range prices.

Batbayar is priced at 8.3k and I think he’s interesting for pacing. In order to beat Tau, you’ll need to produce offense. I’m not sold Batbayar can finish Tau, who has never lost ITD, but I think wrestling will likely be a part of his success. Tau can be taken down and he can scramble up, but 2-3 takedowns are in play for Batbayar.

He is +125 to win ITD so ultimately, Batbayar will rate out well for upside. I don’t consider him safe at all though, and I’m not really sure how this fight should be lined. Basically, I’m willing to mix Batbayar in as a secondary target, and there are aspects about the fight I like for fantasy purposes. I’m still not sold he’s some fantastic target or even the true favorite.

Tau is priced at 7.9k and someone I will actively look to bet against longterm.

He’s just too hittable, and is already absorbing 5 strikes per minute to Elijah Smith and Yin Shuai. He definitely has power but he’s not really that fast, so good technical strikers will beat him. His wrestling is very mediocre, but he’s tough.

I could definitely see Tau defending some takedowns, surviving some punches to the head, and then just being the better brawler over three rounds. Maybe he hurts Batbayar at some point. He’s +210 to win ITD which is fine.

He’s a reasonable secondary target given the pacing of this matchup, with a bit of finishing equity mixed in. I really don’t love his skill set so I’m not looking to come in above the field here though.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Batbayar by Decision (Confidence=Low)