UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot (3/30/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot
Fight Odds: Blanchfield -182, Fiorot +156
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Blanchfield 8.8k, Fiorot 7.4k
Weight Class: 125
Two of the best prospects in the women’s flyweight division, it certainly feels like the winner of Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot will be headed into title contention.
Blanchfield probably has more star power at his point, and she’s had an impressive UFC run thus far, winning all six of her matchups, including dominant submissions against big-named opponents in Jessica Andrade and Molly McCann.
Blanchfield is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and her submission grappling and pacing are the biggest factors in her success. She lands 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and can swarm opponents on the mat, transition to dominant positions and finish them off.
She’s also shown to have a similar style standing, with the ability to pressure, annoy, and swarm her opponents. Though in comparison to her submission grappling, her striking is still not fully developed or technical, and it’s arguably a liability in her game.
The wrestling is really the glue to her game because it’s the transitional point between her striking and grappling, and unfortunately, that’s where we still have some question marks.
While Blanchfield has had lots of success, it’s come primarily against weaker opponents who have poor histories of defending in grappling exchanges. While I can’t dock her for that, it would be ideal to see her wrestling translate easily to a better tier of competition, but it has not.
Blanchfield was shut out against JJ Aldrich, going 0/4 there, and she was most recently shut out against Taila Santos, going 0/14. Granted, she still found a way to pull off wins in both matchups, but it’s not a case of Blanchfield having such dominant wrestling that we’re confident it will be enough to easily get past the upper tier of this division.
That definitely makes me nervous because it’s put her in a situation where she will either A) land takedowns consistently, which likely leads to domination, or B) not land takedowns, which likely leads to her losing rounds or potentially losing the fight.
Blanchfield is only 24 years old though, which is important to remember. She’s still in the developing stages of her professional career, which is both a good thing and a bad thing.
It’s a good thing because we should expect continued improvements in areas she might be weak, and in terms of future potential, Blanchfield has a ton of it. The downside is that at age 24, it is still quite possible that she gets thrown into the fire a bit too soon, and won’t live up to the immediate hype.
That’s probably my biggest worry for Blanchfield against Manon Fiorot, who is 10 years her elder and more experienced as a kickboxer.
Fiorot is similarly experienced as Blanchfield in professional MMA though, and has shared a similar run of success, winning all six of her UFC bouts, and most of them convincingly.
Fiorot is simply a very strong and capable distance striker. She’s landing 6.05 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.31 per minute, with a 69 percent defensive rate which is outstanding.
Her opponents have trouble closing the distance because Fiorot has a lot of range-finding strikes and good footwork, and she will evade if necessary, rather than engage in a brawl where she could be vulnerable.
I don’t think Fiorot is the most dangerous knockout artist in the division but she’s effective, and fights at a pretty high pace, so if opponents cannot defend, they’ll consistently eat shots until they eventually get hurt. Fiorot won by TKO (officially) in both of her first two UFC bouts.
We’ve also seen Fiorot have some success on the canvas, landing 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes. She’s not a great wrestler in total but she’s physical enough to get on top of some of the weaker grapplers in the division. She’s also defended takedowns well at 91 percent, and we’ve seen almost no time from her on her back.
The one sample from the UFC that we have of Fiorot getting taken down was against Jennifer Maia, who very briefly tripped her against the cage, which is a similar style of takedown that Blanchfield can employ. Fiorot reversed position immediately though.
This isn’t an easy matchup to pick in my opinion. I love betting on grapplers because they have multiple paths to victory, and in this particular situation, Blanchfield still has tremendous upside. While takedowns might not come “easily”, Blanchfield could still attempt 15+ of them throughout the fight, land three, and use those three to dominate rounds or finish the fight.
That’s why even though there are question marks with her wrestling in my opinion, she’s still a fine pick to win. I generally defer to picking wrestlers when I’m unsure. And in hindsight, the result could look obvious because Blanchfield may be able to land takedowns easily and control the entirety of the matchup.
And conversely, if the fight only plays out on the feet, Blanchfield will probably be losing but it still might be semi-competitive, and there’s no guarantee the judges easily see it in favor of Fiorot, who will likely still receive pressure from Blanchfield all night.
From a black and white perspective though, if Blanchfield cannot land takedowns, I have to favor Fiorot outright. Fiorot is the better striker and the more effective distance striker. And in that sense, this fight might just come down to whether Blanchfield can land takedowns.
Truthfully, I really don’t have much confidence that she can early in the fight. I love her pressure, and her willingness to grapple. I love her submission grappling. But her wrestling? Eh, I’m not sure it’s good enough to easily take Fiorot down, especially early.
Maybe as the night goes on, Fiorot will start to tire, and then Blanchfield can find success late, still resulting in domination anyway. We haven’t seen either of them fight five rounds before but pacing on both sides seems very strong.
I’m really just concerned that Blanchfield is being slightly overvalued here based on her domination of weak grapplers, and it’s not being factored in enough that she’s also been completely shut out multiple times. I’ve gone back and forth regarding the pick to win all week, but I’ll hesitantly take the grappler
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On DraftKings, Blanchfield is priced at 8.8k and she’ll certainly be one of the most popular fighters on this slate.
She’s undefeated in the UFC, and has averaged 106.3 fantasy points in those wins, which is very impressive. We’ve even seen a 124 and 126 point ceiling from her, with the larger score coming via a three-round decision.
Now in a five-round fight, it feels very likely that Blanchfield will again exceed 100 points in a victory, as a win should come in part due to takedowns, control and ground strikes. She also has legitimate finishing equity at +150 ITD, though that outcome is not guaranteed.
Blanchfield will rate out extremely well on this slate for those reasons and especially because she’s only 8.8k, where most of the best options are priced above her.
I think she’s a very strong cash game consideration this week, and she could even be viewed as a primary tournament target. Despite my concerns with her wrestling or her winning outright, this is a good price point and Blanchfield’s style of fighting should continue to lead to high point totals in wins.
However, if my worst-case fight analysis comes true, Blanchfield might just lose. Takedowns may not come easily or at all, and that would leave the door wide open for Fiorot, and other favorites in this range to step into the optimal.
Fiorot is priced at 7.4k and I think she makes for a tougher conversation because she doesn’t carry a ton of wrestling or finishing equity.
While she does land strikes in volume, I don’t think it’s a guarantee that she’d surpass 120 sig. strikes over five rounds. 120 sig. strikes is only about 80 points in a decision. 140 is closer to 90. At 7.4k, 80-90 points is very good but it’s not necessarily guaranteed to be optimal.
The safe answer is still just to play her, given the five-round potential. If she wins, you’ll be happy she’s on your roster. It’s just not 100 percent certain to be optimal, in which case, targeting some other riskier, boom or bust underdogs at a lower ownership is still a solid strategy.
Fiorot rates out pretty well for floor purposes, even though I have mild concerns about her being held down. The fight is actually lined -150 to go over 3.5 rounds, which in theory would be plenty of action for Fiorot to put up a handful of points in a loss.
She is only +375 to win ITD, which isn’t great, and I don’t think a finish is super likely.
That’s just the concern with Fiorot overall, tying it back into the original fight analysis. A win for Fiorot is probably striking based and semi-competitive. It just puts some question marks on floor/ceiling for the fight as a whole.
I still like Fiorot at 7.4k because she has a clear path to victory standing and saves a lot of salary. There are better finishing options or wrestling options below the mid-range though.
I’ll likely aim to use Fiorot as a secondary target/floor based option but there are enough risks with the fight, or with Fiorot outright losing, that I don’t consider her a primary option.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Blanchfield by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Vincente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley
Fight Odds: Luque -110, Buckley +104
Odds to Finish: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Luque 8.2k, Buckley 8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here in the welterweight division as long time contender Vicente Luque will be taking on rising prospect Joaquin Buckley.
Luque is a well-rounded fighter, but he is primarily a striker. He lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute, and he has power. He is always live to win striking fights because of his come-forward, high output, and big power style. He also has great calf kicks which can completely shut down his opponents. A good example of this was his fight against Randy Brown. He ate Brown’s legs alive.
Luque is very hittable though. He absorbs 5.15 significant strikes per minute and he only defends strikes at 52 percent. So he can lose rounds on the feet. He is pretty durable but was knocked out for his first time against Geoff Neal somewhat recently.
Luque is also a solid submission grappler. He is a brown belt in BJJ, and he has five submission wins in the UFC, all of them being a front headlock type of choke (Anaconda or D’Arce). He doesn’t offensively wrestle much though as he only lands 1.04 takedowns per 15 minutes, so you can’t expect him to win fights often with takedowns and control.
However, Luque did just land eight takedowns against RDA which was incredibly random. I liked that he showed a new path to victory in that fight but he didn’t look great overall. Luque has okay defensive wrestling. He defends takedowns at 62 percent and has okay scrambling ability.
Luque will be taking on Joaquin Buckley. Buckley is decent as a fighter. I actually really liked his last performance against Alex Morono. I thought that was going to be a close fight and Buckley just really styled on Morono in a way I didn’t totally expect. He showed a nice burst in aggression and physicality, and I think it was his best performance to date.
Buckley is generally a striker. He lands 3.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.31 in return. He has plenty of power and can use his athleticism to spring in and land big shots. He is 7-4 in the UFC and 5/7 wins have come by knockout.
I still don’t like Buckley all that much defensively as a striker though. He only defends strikes at 57 percent and three of his four losses have come by knockout. So although he is dangerous, he is a candidate to be knocked out himself.
Still though, I respect Buckley’s power and he is a competent striker, so he will always have a path to victory.
Buckley does come from a wrestling background as well and lands 1.51 takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think he is a great wrestler, but I do think he can land some spot takedowns here and there. He defends takedowns at 65 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I suppose either guy could land a spot takedown, but I generally think the winner of this fight will be the winner of the striking exchanges, so that is what I am going to focus on.
I think the striking is quite competitive. I think I favor Luque’s durability a bit more as his chin is legendary, and we have seen Buckley knocked dead several times.
However, I honestly think Buckley may be a better round winner. For some reason, I just seem to favor Buckley’s athleticism, age, and recent form a bit more as well. So I think Buckley is a legitimate live dog this weekend.
Striking is high-variance though and both guys will likely have success. However, I just think Buckley is a bit more trustworthy as a round winner at this point of his career than Luque, so I am going to pick him for the upset.
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On DraftKings, this is one of our most competitively lined fights and I expect we’ll see action on both sides this weekend.
For me it’s a bit frustrating because I think Luque is clearly the better fighter. He’s a more technical striker than Buckley, and he lands strikes at a higher rate. He’s more experienced and probably more durable as well.
He’s also a better grappler too..
The issue is that Luque does get hit often, and Buckley carries a lot of power in his hands. While Luque’s volume is superior, he’s often in competitive fights, meaning even if he’s having success, he’s likely to absorb some strikes as well. It just brings randomness into the fight that I don’t love.
I still think Buckley’s primary path to victory will come via damage. I doubt he can have much success on the mat, and while a striking based decision is possible, I don’t see it being a clear path.
Especially on DK, Buckley very likely needs an early KO. He is 8k and +225 to win ITD, which is fine for the price tag.
Luque has a higher floor and ceiling in a win because of his volume, but it still might not be enough to be optimal without a finish. Plus, you have to wonder if he’ll pursue takedowns now that he had success against Dos Anjos. Buckley has been taken down by some mediocre opponents so I think it’s possible Luque could continue that success.
Ultimately, we very likely need a finish, which Luque is lined better at +135 ITD. Considering Buckley has been knocked down four times in four losses, Luque’s upside seems somewhat realistic.
It’s just a tough fight to be sure of, and it’s very high-variance. And extended matchup could mean a sub optimal score on both sides, and you have to factor that outcome in as well.
Luque is my preferred play personally at 8.2k, but it’s very tough to recommend heavy exposure given the boom or bust nature of the matchup. Similarly to Buckley, who is arguably even more boom or bust.
The matchup as a whole is -190 to end inside the distance though, so if the field projects to be cautious, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to aim to be overweight. I am going to project both Luque and Buckley to be fairly close in terms of public ownership too, because I’ve seen lots of love for the underdog here, even though he rates out worse.
These types of fights just make me nervous, especially when they’re very competitive on paper, and I tend to shy away in smaller fields. In larger fields, clearly, you should have secondary or heavier exposure here given the ITD metrics, and that will be my goal with a slight lean toward Luque.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Luque by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Chris Weidman vs. Bruno Silva
Fight Odds: Silva -233, Weidman +195
Odds to Finish: -275
DraftKings Salaries: Silva 9.3k, Weidman 6.9k
Weight Class: 185
The All-American, 4x middleweight champion, and future hall-of-famer, Chris Weidman will aim to earn his first victory since 2020 against the dangerous Bruno Silva.
Weidman, for those unfamiliar, was at the top of the world when he dethroned Anderson Silva by knocking him out in 2013, and he became a superstar after that. His credentials in pro MMA are world-class.
But father time waits for no man, and it’s found Weidman too, who hasn’t had much success in recent years. In fact, he’s only won two of his past nine bouts.
In that span, we’ve seen some weird results. He was badly injured when he lost his title to Luke Rockhold in 2015, and he suffered back-to-back knockout losses following that.
He was knocked down by Kelvin Gastelum in 2017 but came back to win, and unfortunately, he followed that up with two more knockout losses. Then, in 2021, he broke his leg in half trying to kick Uriah Hall, which is an indescribable moment because Weidman had been on the other end of that outcome against Anderson Silva in their rematch in 2021. It’s one of the most devastating injuries there is in the sport and shocking for Weidman to have been on both ends of that outcome.
Despite us, fans, the media, whomever, ready for Weidman to hang it up, he returned again in 2023 and lost a decision to Brad Tavares where he basically got leg kicked all night.
Now, at age 39, he’ll fight a knockout artist in Bruno Silva.
I am not the biggest fan of Bruno Silva, who’s only won one of his last five fights himself, and I do think he’s pretty vulnerable across the board.
I was betting against him when he fought Wellington Turman, who ended up on his back for several minutes, but fell off and was TKOd on the canvas. I was betting against him when he fought Andrew Sanchez, who took him down seven times, only to get knocked out in the third round. The Jordan Wright KO I saw coming.
Since then, he’s only beaten one opponent, Brad Tavares, by first round knockout, and his other losses haven’t been impressive. Gerald Meerschaert hurt him and submitted him. Brendan Allen did the same.
Silva’s 43 percent striking defense has left him vulnerable on the feet and he’s getting hurt because of it. He’s also absorbing more strikes than he lands in total, at 4.43 landed versus the 5.33 per minute absorbed. Granted, he fought Alex Pereira and Shara Magomedov in that span, but getting outstruck by Meerschaert is a pretty low bar.
And who knows if his wrestling is still any good. He hasn’t really been shot on too often in recent years, but Meerschaert was able to get him down.
I’m really just not sold on any part of Silva’s game, other than that if he has an opponent standing in front of him, he will go for the kill. He can be dangerous in that regard, and I still think he’s capable of some big knockouts.
Chris Weidman could be his next victim. It’s hard to ignore the obvious there.
Weidman has been dropped many times, and knocked out many times. I have no idea whether another year layoff has done him any good but it’s possible he’s healthier than he’s been in recent times. I’m not sure it matters if he’s gonna get punched in the face, Weidman might not stay conscious.
If you want to end the analysis there, that’s fine.
However, Weidman was once a great fighter, and a lot of those skills are still with him. He showed some wrestling capability in his fight with Akhmedov in 2020, landing five takedowns and getting into dominant positions on the mat. He is a BJJ black belt and an elite one.
He’s also a fine boxer. His volume isn’t the greatest and his durability sucks, but he’s technically fine.
And you go back and watch Silva fight Sanchez, and watch him get taken down over and over and put into bad positions, and it’s like… Weidman could do this. At some point in his career Weidman could have definitely beaten this guy. Are we too far past that stage now? Maybe, but I’m not fully convinced of it.
I think the best way to put it is that the most likely outcome may still be that Silva throws big shots and Weidman gets hurt, but if this fight extends, and we get three rounds of action, I see no reason why Weidman couldn’t compete there.
He is far and away the better grappler and Silva has shown major weakness on the mat there, multiple times. Silva has also shown pretty bad durability himself, so it’s not as if Weidman has no chance for success on the feet.
I’m getting a bit nostalgic but I’d love to see Weidman win this one. History says it’s likely out of reach for him but stylistically, I give him some chance.
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On DraftKings, I think this is a decent fight and it could be one with binary outcomes.
Silva at 9.3k seems obvious, but I’m not projecting him to be extreme chalk. Malkoun and Blanchfield are priced below him, and Arce, Ruziboev and Loughran are in the same range. Silva has a pretty bad box score with only one recent win, so attention might not be driven his way.
And, clearly, he’s extremely boom or bust. This isn’t a safe spot at all from a fantasy standpoint. He needs that quick KO to compete with the optimal. I really don’t have a lot of faith he’ll get the job done.
I want to be very careful about not swaying too far in the other direction though. In comparison to Ramos vs. Erosa last week, it was tougher for me to make the case for Ramos, despite Erosa’s durability. This time, it’s much more realistic. It could come in the first couple minutes of this fight very easily.
Silva is -170 to win ITD which may be the main reason why ownership gets thrown in his direction, and I think we have to be on this in some regard. There are others I like in this range and others I like way more in terms of skill set, but Silva has one of the best chances on the slate to win by KO in round one, and at 9.1k, he’s a boom or bust but ultimately strong tournament option.
Weidman at 7.1k is someone who I’d like a piece of, in theory, but I don’t think the public will.
The problem is that it’s more than just a durability risk. He could just look old. And there are other underdogs nearby who have better metrics and upside cases. Weidman’s case is mediocre, but I’ll make it anyway.
The guy can wrestle and if he wins, I would expect it to come from wrestling. That, or a hail mary KO. Either of those outcomes still have potential to score well, and perhaps he could be leverage against Silva.
Weidman is +450 to win ITD but his last decision scored 89 points, which is decent enough for the price. I can’t really label him a true secondary option because of the downside but I do think he’s potentially very sneaky, and someone who I would personally sprinkle in if I needed to punt in tournaments.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Silva by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Sedriques Dumas
Fight Odds: Ruziboev -213, Dumas +180
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Ruziboev 9.2k, Dumas 7k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Nursulton Ruziboev bypassed the Contender Series and made good on his debut this past July with an early KO – he’s 33-8-2 as a pro. Sedriques Dumas is a Contender Series alum who dropped the ball in his debut, but has followed that up with back-to-back wins – he’s 9-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Ruziboev’s background but he’s more of a grappler than a striker. But he’s a pretty lanky guy at 185, standing 6’5” with a 76” reach.
He tends to be lower volume and largely throws in single shots, either with his straights or chopping lead kicks. But he has shown power components with 11 of his pro wins coming via strikes, as he does throw with purpose. Then it’s in the situations he hurts guys that he’ll start to really unload. He falls more into the range sniper category.
Defensively, he hasn’t faced a ton of volume back his way but stands very upright, and I have seen him dropped before – gives me some vibes of tall man’s defense.
He has been durable in the sense that he hasn’t been KO’d since 2014, granted I don’t think he’s fought many good fighters generally, let alone quality strikers.
Overall, opponents have to be mindful of his long-range weapons but his stand-up is pretty “meh” to me and he’s probably going to lose striking minutes at the UFC level when fighting more competent opponents.
Dumas comes from a kickboxing background and is a long guy at the weight class, standing 6’2” with a 79” reach.
He fights at a pretty measured pace as a guy who likes to pick and choose his shots, with good straight punches and he possesses kicks to all three levels. To illustrate, he has won via kick KOs to the legs, body and head.
Defensively, he played the range game well on the regionals, but he did get hit clean a handful of times when opponents did come forward on him.
Dumas has also been able to get the better of the striking exchanges in all of those regional fights. However, he didn’t exactly fight a murders row of competition.
In his debut against Fremd, not a ton happened but he landed some good leg kicks – Fremd was winning the boxing though and did buckle Dumas a few times. There wasn’t much to take away striking wise from the Brundage fight.
Most recently, he had another slower paced fight with Azaitar where the distance strikes were even at 31 to 31. Dumas lost the 2nd round on the feet and stole the 3rd with a couple bigger moments in a power jab and late head kick – although you could have realistically given that fight to Azaitar as well.
Overall, he appears to be a relatively dangerous guy, but I would like to see a higher work rate from him, and he hasn’t looked great standing so far in the UFC. But he’s looked good when in the driver’s seat and if he can continue to improve/really harness his size, he’ll be a guy to look out for potentially.
How it plays out: If historics are any indication here, probably not much happens on the feet until the bigger clashes/moments when either guy comes in. Dumas is probably the better kicker here but that could also get him in trouble. We saw Azaitar counter off kicks last time out and Ruziboev is coming off flatlining Ferreira off a naked entry kick. Both guys have decent jabs but aren’t particularly adept counter strikers in the boxing. You could sell me either way but Ruziboev’s potentially a bit quicker than Dumas.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Ruziboev’s grappling credentials, but 20 of his 33 pro wins have come via submission so that’s how he primarily gets the job done. At the same time, his wrestling has been largely poor, both offensively and defensively.
He gets taken down in pretty much every fight and multiple times at that, as he’s one of those guys who really doesn’t mind being on his back.
He’s shown an aggressive guard to attack armbars and kimuras but there’s also been multiple other instances where he’s getting controlled extensively and getting his guard passed.
He’s managed to get on top of certain guys while landing his own TDs off caught kicks or sweeping, but his general top game isn’t very good from what I’ve seen – he can get swept or lose positions himself.
Ruziboev is now training out of Renzo Gracie Philly though, so I do think that’s a good camp for him to work on patching up some of his holes.
Overall, he’s a capable/dangerous grappler but for someone with 20 submission wins, I don’t think he’s anything special – especially considering how poor his wrestling is. From what we have to go on, he’s going to struggle against guys who know how to follow hips and posture correctly.
Dumas is a recently crowned BJJ Purple Belt.
His offensive wrestling is okay, but it’s nothing special at the same time as it can be very physical based. But he’s particularly strong from the body lock and has shown pretty good control components on the ground.
In his last regional win prior to DWCS, he was able to take his opponent down multiple times, gain dominant positions and control him for the bulk of the fight. So it was good to see that Dumas can win in a more extended affair, considering he has a lot of quick finishes on his record.
He scored an RNC in his pro debut and showed off a nasty guillotine in his DWCS fight – he also had a guillotine win back in his amateur days as well.
He just top timed an exhausted Cody Brundage, despite not landing any conventional TDs. He won the 1st round via wrestling against Azaitar but abandoned it in the back half of the fight – pretty poor fight IQ situation there generally, but especially factoring in he was fighting a gas bag in Azaitar and didn’t want to push.
Defensively, it was in his lone amateur loss back in 2020 where he got outwrestled and lost on the cards. He’s been taken down a few times regionally but has been able to either work up or reverse positions quickly.
However, he got audited on the floor in his UFC debut against Fremd where Fremd went 2/2 on TDs, racked up 4+ minutes of control and got Dumas in a guillotine where tapped before the choke was even in.
Both Brundage and Azaitar got him down, but he was able to work up quickly in those instances.
Overall, he’s capable of out wrestling and out grappling lesser skilled fighters but the Fremd fight is pretty concerning in relation to how Dumas fairs on the ground going forward.
How it plays out: The ground is weird here. I feel Dumas projects as the guy who’s probably more likely to win top-based minutes on historics, but it also begs two bigger questions. The first being is he going to wrestle in volume here? The second being how does he deal with the more aggressive guard and sweep threat that Ruziboev is, because he hasn’t been threatened much when in top positions. Once again, the Fremd fight for Dumas isn’t a particularly good look here though from a submission defense perspective. So ultimately, we’re probably going to learn more about both guys. Minutes go to Dumas, moments go to Ruziboev, most likely.
Interesting scrap between two guys that I’m still having some trouble making heads or tails in terms of their skill level in 2024. Ruziboev hasn’t been out of the 1st round in four years and has a style that I traditionally don’t like as a finish reliant fighter – he’s 2-6 in decisions for a reason. Dumas is a guy I feel could have some upside generally but some of his performances haven’t been encouraging (even in wins), and he’s still early on in his career with only 10 pro fights – coupled with a lot of out of the cage concerns and a lengthy criminal history to where I’m not sure how seriously the guy takes his career. I’ll take Ruziboev via club and sub but it’s not a strong opinion.
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On DraftKings, both fighters are certainly interesting given the questionable defensive components of both, especially on the ground.
It does feel like a more risk-based fight though, as it’s tough to fully know what to expect.
The reality though is that Ruziboev tends to win ITD, and he tends to win with grappling. The combination of those things can lead to high scores in wins, and we’ve already seen Dumas lay an egg in grappling situations.
Ruziboev is expensive at 9.2k but he’s a whopping -210 to win ITD, which is an elite line on this slate. I think he can realistically win by submission, even if it’s not pretty.
I also don’t expect him to be super chalk. There are enough strong options in this range, and below, that ownership should be spread out. He might not project to be as highly owned as you might expect just based on metrics.
So ultimately, Ruziboev feels like a strong tournament option. I consider him more of the boom or bust version of a grappler though, and I wouldn’t be on him for safety purposes. His ceiling projects quite well in a win though, and at 9.2k. Ruziboev is worth mild or moderate exposure.
Dumas at 7k is fine. He’s not an exciting talent to me and I’m not trusting of his skill set. I’m also not that trusting of Ruziboev’s talent either, and he might be overhyped here based on his UFC debut win.
Dumas could realistically win, and it could come with some takedowns. His betting line has dropped a bit in recent days. He hasn’t translated his UFC success to DK success yet with wins of 79 and 64 points, but he has more theoretical upside than that. He’s +300 to win ITD here which is fine for the price.
At 7k, I have mild interest in Dumas but there are several underdogs worth considering below the mid-range, and others have strong upside cases. I’m slightly worried that his line movement and recent wins will make Dumas the highest owned fighter 7.1k and below, and he might be the highest owned fighter below 7.4k, though I’m not worried enough to avoid him.
If you need a salary saver, Dumas is fine as a low-end target, who has some grappling and finishing appeal, but I don’t plan on taking him more aggressively than the field this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ruziboev by Guillotine, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Bill Algeo vs. Kyle Nelson
Fight Odds: Algeo -240, Nelson +200
Odds to Finish: +155
DraftKings Salaries: Algeo 9.1k, Nelson 7.1k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have actually enjoyed Bill Algeo’s run in the UFC and I think this is a winnable matchup for him against a slower-paced Kyle Nelson.
Algeo is 5-3 in the UFC and his run hasn’t been perfect. He has competed well in all eight fights though, and he always brings it. I have also bet successfully on him a couple of times, so I have a soft spot for him.
You just know what you are going to get with Algeo. He fights at a high pace and has good cardio. He is a high-pace striker, landing 6.11 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.41 in return. He only defends strikes at 47 percent though, which is poor. He isn’t super skilled or super athletic, but he just keeps coming and can compete just on his pace, volume, and aggressiveness.
Algeo is also a competent grappler. He only lands 0.89 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also only defends takedowns at 56 percent, and has been taken down by eight of nine opponents in the UFC. However, he is a BJJ black belt which means he can survive on the mat when necessary, and can land big GNP from top position.
Algeo is scrambly and a pest when he’s in bottom position. He can usually work up, or at least make opponents uncomfortable and work hard by always using his pace to land offense from the bottom.
Algeo is a fine fighter and is competent in all areas, with good cardio. He is just very durable too and has never been knocked out in 25 professional fights. He nearly beat Andre Fili and is clearly UFC level. He has his flaws though as I don’t consider him great defensively, and he can be taken down, but he will continue to be competitive in this division.
Algeo will be taking on Kyle Nelson who has surprised many by winning his last two UFC fights against Blake Bilder and Fernando Padilla as an underdog in both contests.
So, I don’t consider Nelson to be very good. His striking ratios are not great. He lands 3.46 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.56 in return. He isn’t very great on the feet when fights get extended and he is never really going to win clean rounds.
I do think he at least showed some improvement in his last two fights. However, Blake Bilder is pretty bad so I don’t even put much stock into that performance.
I do think Nelson has some power though. He has some decent hands, especially early in fights, and he is capable of hurting opponents. He knocked out Polo Reyes and hurt Diego Ferreira badly. He also hurt several fighters on the regionals.
I mostly can’t expect Nelson to win fights on the feet at this level unless he lands KOs, or if he fights people who will not throw volume. He is a decently tough guy who has only been put away with strikes on the feet once, in the third round against Billy Q. His other KO loss was from ground-and-pound to Ferreira.
So I do think Nelson can stay tough in fights which gives himself an opportunity for a KO. It still isn’t a process of winning fights that will win at a high percentage though.
Nelson does have okay wrestling in his game. He landed two takedowns against Sayles (who is a terrible grappler) and had success. He landed five takedowns against Dooho Choi. He also had success on the regionals with grappling at times.
He can kind of land takedowns and threaten with back takes, using his physicality. He also attempts six takedowns per 15 minutes so he does choose to grapple semi-often. I still don’t think he is a good grappler though and doubt he can do much damage with it in the UFC.
Nelson defends takedowns at 73 percent. I think he is okay with his defensive wrestling because of his physicality. However, he still isn’t great on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, I just have to go with Algeo because of the volume edge alone. I doubt Nelson can easily take and hold Algeo down, and doing so may just gas Nelson out. So Nelson will likely have to strike for stretches here, and I honestly think Algeo will just pepper him up with strikes and get ahead on the strike count.
Maybe Nelson can neutralize and limit engagements on the feet, and slow the fight down. He may be able to strike competitively by doing that. However, I only think that will last so long. My guess is Algeo will keep hunting Nelson down and eventually fatigue him to a degree, and just kind of beat him up.
I also think Algeo is a superior submission grappler here and could have success if he got on top of a tired Nelson.
So my pick here is Algeo. I just think he carries more volume upside and has superior cardio in general.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think this is a matchup I can prioritize given the pricing and GTD metrics.
Algeo is priced up to 9.1k which puts him closer to the elite group this week, and that means we really need a smash performance. He is capable of it, and Nelson has been put away before, but there are a lot of strong options in this range.
Especially as Algeo doesn’t wrestle very often, he could be reliant on striking volume. Nelson will likely try to slow the pace down, and limit exchanges, which could just extend the fight.
I still think Algeo could win by KO, but he’s not really a one-punch guy and will do more damage with attrition. He’s only +235 to win ITD which is not particularly good and the fight as a whole is -190 to go the distance.
I think that’s going to take him out of real consideration for me this week. In decision wins, Algeo is only scoring in the mid-80s. He has a couple of 100+ scores but those came via 2nd round finishes, and that’s tough to project here.
Ultimately I would rather play several other targets for upside in this range, and Algeo will fall into the contrarian category for me. It’s still a decent matchup for him and if he does win ITD, then his volume alone could help him surpass 100 points. I am going to project him quite low owned in this range as I think he’ll get squeezed among the other top options, so in that sense, pivoting to Algeo on a small percentage of teams is viable. Still, I don’t expect to have much exposure here personally.
Nelson at 7.1k has won back-to-back fights and scored the exact same amount of points in both wins. 120 points you say? Nope. 63. He scored 63 in both.
He’s just not very active and I think he’s more dependent on damage here. I guess because Algeo sucks at wrestling, Nelson has some wrestling equity. One or two takedowns is very possible but I do not think he can do anything with them and he could even put himself into a submission.
Otherwise, Nelson has a poor ITD line of +500 and Algeo has never been KOd. It’s a tough matchup for Nelson on paper because of that.
It’s not impossible that he wins and Nelson is fine as a low-end target, but I really question his floor and ceiling. There are other fighters in this range I like more for win purposes and finishing upside, and I would rather target them. Nelson won’t find his way onto many of my rosters.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Algeo by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Chidi Njokuani vs. Rhys McKee
Fight Odds: Njokuani -142, McKee +124
Odds to Finish: -500
DraftKings Salaries: Njokuani 8.6k, McKee 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Chidi Njokuani is a Contender Series alum who got off to a hot start in the UFC but has since cooled off, now riding a 3-fight skid. He’ll be dropping back down to 170 lbs. for the first time since 2016 – he’s 2-3 in the UFC and 22-10 as a pro. Rhys McKee is the former 170 lb. champion over in Cage Warriors and is now in his 2nd UFC stint – he’s 0-3 in the promotion and 13-5-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Njokuani comes from a kickboxing background which is on display in his fights. He’s a very long guy who likes to fight at range and prefers to kick more than punch.
He’s pretty technical and accurate but his volume tends to be on the lower end, so he’s traditionally not going out there and “pacing” guys standing per say.
He does have a solid clinch game though with sound elbows and good knees, in which he’s been able to hurt the bulk of his most recent opponents. I still don’t think he’s a gigantic hitter in terms of his punching but it’s more so his timing that has given him some credence to finishes or hurting opponents.
He was able to hand Barriault his first KO loss with a well-placed shot behind the ear, which adds to that sniper merit – although I do think it was somewhat of a memey outcome. Defensively, he’s largely sound in the scenarios at range where he can utilize his length as he’s pretty cognoscente of using head movement and footwork.
However, his struggles have come when guys have been able to get inside on him with effective pressure. More specifically, recently in his fights with Rodrigues and Oleksiejczuk. His durability is of concern at this point as he’s been KO’d in two of his last three losses.
Overall, he’s a good striker but does work in a style that can lead to tighter margins if he can’t secure finishes – this is what cost him against Duraev recently.
McKee’s a good-sized 170er, standing 6’2” with a 78” reach.
However, he often hasn’t been a guy who’s always used his length particularly well from a defensive perspective and has been a very hittable fighter throughout his career. His defense looked better in his outing against Wallhead although it still wasn’t great, and Wallhead is a base grappler.
But he’s shown to be a tough guy having only been finished via strikes twice – once earlier on his pro career and in his UFC debut on the floor against Chimaev – no shame.
Offensively, he’s traditionally an aggressive striker who works at a higher pace, and also builds throughout the course of his fights. As a result, four of his last five wins have come via latter stoppages.
He falls more into the technical brawler category and if guys don’t have the footwork and defense to keep him at bay, he will chip away over the course of his fights.
We did see the footwork of Morono give him some issues, but McKee still landed a high volume of strikes. He most recently by and large got worked by Loosa, but also had him on the ropes late would have probably finished with more time permitting.
Overall, McKee’s still only 28 years old and a guy who’s boxing I do respect, but he still just hasn’t learned how to use his length yet.
How it plays out: The striking dynamic seems largely predictive in the sense that it’s probably Njokuani early or McKee late. Njokuani will be one of the best strikers that McKee has fought to date who’s also pretty long. Despite McKee showing his toughness in many outings, he doesn’t want to be eating flush shots from a guy like Njokuani – I’m not sure if he’ll be able to take them. However, if he does, things could snowball for Njokuani under the zombie-like pressure that McKee brings.
The wrestling/grappling component:
With Njokuani coming from that kickboxing background, we don’t see him wrestle much but he has mixed it in here and there regionally – he’s a BJJ black belt as well.
But the guys who he has been able to take down or have ground based success on just haven’t been very good, and despite his black belt status, he’s only got one pro win via submission in a lengthy career.
He was able to get on top of Sousa at multiple points on DWCS and finish with GNP, but that was also a product of Njokuani reversing once and Sousa pulling guard though. The ground has actually been a primary struggle for him in all six of his last losses to Koreshkov, Salter, Carvalho, Rodrigues, Duraev and Oleksiejczuk.
He got subbed by Salter, clipped and pounded out by Koreshkov and struggled with the general pressure in the cage exchanges/top control from Carvalho. He gassed out against Rodrigues, getting thrown down with a lazy TD and pounded out, Duraev took the 1st round via wrestling and Oleksiejczuk recently pounded him out.
I will say that he fared better in grappling exchanges in nullifying dominant positions/hooks against him in both the Sousa and Dusko fights.
But I still have bigger concerns if he does get flattened with his shoulders on the mat and is tired.
Overall, I’d say the floor is more of a weakness for Njokuani, but his defensive wrestling has gotten a bit better since the earlier portions of his career.
McKee’s a BJJ Purple Belt with three pro wins coming via submission but the ground historically has been more of a negative than a positive for McKee.
As alluded to above, he got pounded out by Chimaev and was taken down three times by Alex Morono, despite Morono not accruing high amounts of control time – still not a great look with Morono going 3/3 considering Morono has never landed more than one TD in any other UFC fight.
Brazier outwrestled him back in the day and we also saw Burlinson give him some bigger issues earlier on in that fight advancing into dominant positions – McKee did work out of those positions though.
Most recently, Loosa went 6/10 on TDs, racking up six minutes of control – in addition to landing a healthy number of clinch and ground strikes which nearly put McKee out on one occasion.
Offensively, he’s just not a guy you can trust to wrestle with any consistency as a guy who wants to stand and strike, but he’s mixed TDs in on occasion.
Overall, I’d still classify the ground as more of a weakness for McKee.
How it plays out: The ground’s a bit of a mess given the historics playing a contributing factor in a decent chunk of their losses. I can see either guy in theory looking good from top positions should they get there, but both are also poor offensive wrestlers. I suppose I give McKee more upside just in the sense that he’s collapsed less on the ground than Njokuani has, although Njokuani’s faced a better level of competition.
Fun fight that should bring a decent degree of variance. On paper, McKee is the type of step down in competition that Njokuani “should” beat as he is the more credentialled/experienced/skilled kickboxer. But as noted, I don’t trust Njokuani here in an extended fight generally and I don’t know how this weight cut to 170 is going to go for him at 35 years old – and as a guy that’s missed weight at 185 before. McKee may very well just win by virtue of being alive past 5-7 minutes – he could hurt Njokuani early as well. I’ll take the more youthful McKee for the slight upset, but Njokuani vet lessoning McKee is also very live.
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On DraftKings, it’s another messy fight but another fight that I think poses some upside cases for fantasy.
Njokuani is clearly the more impactful striker and he should have success early. While it’s tough to consider it a super likely outcome, given McKee hasn’t lost by TKO many times, I do think Njokuani can damage McKee and potentially find the finish.
He’s priced at 8.6k and is -110 to win ITD, which is a great line for this price. When Njokuani has won in the UFC, it’s come in round one, and he’s scored 108 and 130 in the process.
With that said, I think Njokuani is a great target this week, though he’s notably boom or bust. He very likely wins this fight by KO in round one, or he won’t win at all. I don’t normally like targeting these spots as much as the field, but I’m also intrigued by the fact that Njokuani has lost three times in a row, his betting line is moving the wrong direction, and there’s a good chance the field gets scared off by that.
I still feel obligated to project Njokuani to be semi-popular, because his ITD metrics are elite and he’s in a range with Godinez, Gatto and Buzukja who all may get no ownership. But he might not be ultra-chalk like we could see in a different situation with a different fighter.
The mid-range is pretty strong this week and Njokuani is one of those strong targets. I will be chasing some of his upside and will likely end up with mild-moderate exposure, but I understand the bust risk here if the fight gets past the first round.
McKee at 7.6k is very intriguing just based on how his style matches up with the weaknesses of Njokuani, and now he projects as a value at +124 to win.
I don’t rate McKee very highly as a talent though, and his 44% striking defense will likely get him into trouble, but the guy does fight at a high pace and is pretty tough. He almost came back to knock out Ange Loosa after taking a beating.
Njokuani has crumbled a couple of times recently after having early success, and McKee does seem like the type to replicate that outcome if he can survive. He’s 7.6k and his upside is a high-paced war that leads to a mid-round KO. He’s surprisingly +165 to win ITD which is an elite metric for this price.
I’ll be very interested to see what the field does here, as McKee is currently rating out very clearly as the best option. He has the best chance to win of any fighter nearby, excluding Matthews, and hits ITD odds are elite. However, his box score sucks and his tape isn’t much better.
I’m not going to project McKee as ultra-chalk but it is possible he will rate out so well that optimizers smash him in, and he gets steamed on fight night
For me personally, I like a lot of underdogs on this slate so McKee is not necessarily a stand out, but he rates out well and I’ll certainly consider him. I’m always a bit nervous to aggressively target fighters who project to get beaten up early though, and so he’ll fall into a standard secondary category for me. But he definitely has upside and I’m definitely including him in my player pool this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Njokuani by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Nate Landwehr vs. Jamall Emmers
Fight Odds: Emmers -187, Landwehr +160
Odds to Finish: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Emmers 8.9k, Landwehr 7.3k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
It is shocking to me that Jamall Emmers has never won two fights in a row in the UFC. He is far too talented to be this inconsistent, so a part of me is hoping he beats Nate Landwehr this weekend to get his first UFC win streak going.
I have always had a hard stance that Emmers is a very good fighter, so it was nice to see him get back in the win column last November by running through Dennis Buzukja.
The issue with Emmers has been his fight IQ. I fully believe if Emmers would have zigged instead of zagged in a few fights, he could be undefeated in this promotion. His last loss (although I thought the judges screwed him) against Jack Jenkins again showed bad fight IQ, as Emmers decided to grapple a bit too late in that matchup. He still looked fine in that matchup skillfully though.
Other than fight IQ, Emmers is a promising fighter. He is a capable striker. He has a long frame and stands at 5’10” with a 74” reach. He lands 5.10 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.79 in return.
Emmers is just an athletic guy and has some moderate power, and can fight at a high pace. He actually outlanded Giga Chikadze 48-37 at distance so he is clearly a UFC level capable striker. He also showed his striking against Ashkabov and kind of just dominated him on the feet. It was also nice seeing him display some power in his knockout win against Dennis Buzukja.
Emmers can also grapple, and he comes from a wrestling background. He lands 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of holding top position. I also consider him strong defensively as a wrestler and he defends takedowns at 90 percent. His defensive wrestling performance against Ashkabov was impressive, as he stopped all six of Ashkabov’s takedowns.
I just generally consider Emmers a solid fighter. He can strike, he can wrestle, and he has solid cardio as well. He can win rounds in this division.
Emmers will be taking on blue collar bad boy and UFC veteran Nate Landwehr. Landwehr is a brawler who will come forward like a psychopath for 15 minutes and try to break opponents with his pace.
Landwehr lands 6.14 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.58 in return. He brings a high pace and likes to make it dirty on the feet. He breaks his opponents and has some power as well. He isn’t all that technical or skilled on the feet, but I do respect his path to victory on the feet as his pace is hard to deal with.
Landwehr’s style brings variance though. He has been knocked out twice and one of them was to Herbert Burns, who Landwehr probably beats at least 80 percent of the time. Landwehr is just very aggressive and hittable, so he can be put away. Even Darren Elkins landed 121 significant strikes on Landwehr.
Landwehr also has some submission skills and is a decently capable grappler. He lands 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of opportunistic submissions. I more so think his grappling success comes when he tires opponents out though. In other words, I don’t think he will easily outgrapple capable grapplers who are fresh. He also has good TDD at 86 percent and is hard to hold down.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Emmers is a more skilled wrestler, but again I just think both of these guys are hard to hold down, so they may neutralize one another, and I actually think these guys will strike for stretches.
On the feet, I probably favor Emmers as he has good cardio to match Landwehr and is the more technical fighter. I only favor Emmers mildly on the feet though as I still respect the pace and aggression that Landwehr brings. Landwehr is capable of hurting most guys. I think the striking will likely be competitive and back-and-forth, where both guys have a chance to hurt one another, but Emmers is probably a bit better as a round winner.
I generally lean towards more technical fighters in these scenarios so I think Emmers is the rightful favorite, and my guess is he wins a competitive decision on Saturday.
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On DraftKings, I have mixed feelings about the matchup.
I’ve always been really high on Emmers as a talent, and not so high on Landwehr. Emmers has a habit of blowing it though, and Landwehr is the type to make people pay for mistakes.
Emmers is priced at 8.9k and has some upside given his style. He can wrestle and he can strike at a moderate pace. Landwehr gets hit a ton, and so there’s some KO upside.
Emmers is only +200 to win ITD though, and he’s not the best finisher on paper. I’m unsure how to feel about him coming off a KO win, and whether that means anything in relation to this matchup. It probably does not.
If Emmers does not win by early KO, then I’m unsure he will have enough production to be optimal at this price, in a very tough range. He’s only topped two takedowns in one fight, and there’s no guarantee he wrestles at a high pace.
I think I’m actually leaning slightly against targeting lots of Emmers this week. Mostly because I feel pretty confident that we’ll get multiple big scores from this same range, plus the mid-range. Emmers really needs a dominant performance and he hasn’t had many of those.
I also think the field will share that same opinion though, and I’m currently projecting him to get squeezed in this range and fall more into the contrarian category. If that’s the case, Emmers is still a viable pivot option, and the matchup itself does present ceiling possibilities. I’m just not overwhelmingly confident in them and lean more toward liking Emmers’ floor in a win than his outright ceiling.
Landwehr at 7.3k has typically scored big in wins. He’s put up 84, 92, 104 and 102 on DK, which is decent. I feel like he’ll need to damage Emmers badly to win this fight, and so a KO win seems semi-realistic. Landwehr is +300 to win ITD, which is fine.
My real hesitancy is that Emmers is a better boxer and a better wrestler than Landwehr. Emmers should win the fight, and at the very least, avoid giving up tons of offense to Landwehr.
But, Landwehr has made a career out of getting beaten up early and coming back to win, and I’m mildly afraid of the Emmers’ collapse. On a different slate, I’d probably invest into Landwehr a good amount but there are so many viable underdogs this week.
I still think Landwehr has viability but I don’t rate him in the top tier of underdogs and he’s more of a secondary mix-in/salary-saver.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Emmers by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Virna Jandiroba vs. Loopy Godinez
Fight Odds: Godinez -217, Jandiroba +183
Odds to Finish: +210
DraftKings Salaries: Godinez 8.7k, Jandiroba 7.5k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Having won four straight fights, a win for Loopy Godinez against Virna Jandiroba this weekend would be huge for her career.
Godinez comes from a wrestling background, and I consider her an average wrestler for WMMA. Godinez lands 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and has the cardio to land takedowns for a full 15 minutes. I think Godinez can continue to beat below-average grapplers consistently at this level with volume wrestling alone. Godinez isn’t a great submission grappler though and only has a couple of submission wins in her career.
Godinez has some decent boxing and a bit of pop in her hands. I actually quite like her power and she has a strong overhand right. She lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.76 in return. She can have issues with experienced strikers but overall, I don’t mind her on the feet.
Godinez defends takedowns at 86 percent and has decent tdd overall. I liked the way she scrambled up versus Calvillo and Lookboonme when taken down as well. She did have her back taken while standing a couple of times versus Jessica Penne. However, they were kind of unique positions and I overall consider her defensive wrestling decent. It was good to see her defend all six takedown attempts in her most recent matchup versus Tabatha Ricci as well.
Godinez will be taking on BJJ ace Virna Jandiroba. Jandiroba is a fantastic grappler, and I have generally been higher on her than others in the past. She is a world-class BJJ player and it shows in her fights. She lands 2.42 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a very capable wrestler. I actually quite like her takedowns for someone who comes from a BJJ background. She just won a dominant decision in her most recent matchup against Marina Rodriguez in a very impressive performance.
Jandiroba is also very dangerous in top position. She can pass guard extremely well and is dangerous while moving from position to position. She also has a solid submission grappling game. She has two submissions in the UFC and is capable of submitting UFC level competition.
One other thing I like about Jandiroba’s ground game is her sweep game. She can use her sweeps to reverse and obtain top position. Furthermore, even when her takedowns do not land, she can force sweeps with leg entanglements to get top position. She used sweeps to get top position on Angela Hill.
Jandiroba is not much of a striker. She lands 2.34 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.03. She is not really going to win rounds on the feet. I do think she at least does an underrated job of limiting striking engagements and damage, as she is never really getting hit with anything clean.
As far as this matchup goes, I do favor Godinez as a striker so I do think her being the favorite is justified. She just puts out more volume than Jandiroba does. I also just think Godinez has more impact and power in her hands as well.
I don’t think Godinez will dominate Jandiroba standing because I do think Jandiroba does a decent job limiting engagements. However, my guess is Godinez will be at a mild to moderate edge when this plays out on the feet.
I certainly think Jandiroba is a superior submission grappler though. Godinez may be able to land takedowns here. However, I think it would be a BAD idea and Godinez will likely just get swept or threatened with submissions.
Theoretically, I do think Godinez has the TDD to sprawl and brawl to a striking based decision here. I am leaning towards that happening so I will pick Godinez to win.
However, I am not completely ruling out Jandiroba landing takedowns here and having success on the mat with control or submissions. I quite like the takedowns of Jandiroba and she just racked up a combined six takedowns and 19 minutes of control against Marina Rodriguez and Angela Hill in her last two fights. I also think Jandiroba is BY FAR the best wrestler and grappler that Godinez has faced so an upset here would not shock me at all.
So I honestly think this may be dog or pass, and I would avoid betting Godinez this weekend as this is a serious test for her as a -200 favorite.
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On DraftKings, I’m really hoping the public likes Godinez coming off four wins in a row because I consider this a terrible matchup for her, for fantasy purposes, and I won’t be targeting her at all.
Godinez has flashed upside at times, and she’s topped 120 points on three different occasions, which included an eight-takedown performance in a decision. Her wrestling upside is pretty legit.
However, this is not the matchup for Godinez to have wrestling success, and she might not choose to attempt any takedowns at all.
Furthermore, submission grappling aces like Jandiroba are tough to finish, even in striking exchanges, unless you knock them out cold. Otherwise, she may fall to the mat and it’s unrealistic to think Godinez can jump on top of her and easily avoid entanglements.
Godinez is priced at 8.7k and she’s only +475 to win ITD, so probably, the public won’t be on her too much. Her finishing equity is poor in this matchup and her wrestling equity is severely limited. I won’t project her to be popular.
There are so many strong options on this card that I’m leaning toward an outright fade on Godinez this week, as a striking based decision with limited grappling just doesn’t project well enough to reach a fantasy ceiling.
Jandiroba is the preferred play at 7.5k, and she has some grappling and submission upside.
That’s the only reason to target her at all though. You can’t expect volume of any kind. What you want is for her to land 1-2 takedowns and use that control to lock up a submission.
Jandiroba has done that multiple times in her UFC career, and she’s scored 97 and 101. She also has recent dominant grappling based wins of 95 and 79. It’s mediocre scoring, largely because she’s not landing strikes.
I guess, I don’t LOVE Jandiroba either in this matchup because Godinez probably has the tools to defend takedowns. In theory she does. It’s not an obvious spot for Jandiroba and there are so many other underdogs to choose from. For that reason, she’s only a standard secondary target.
But she does have some finishing equity, even if it’s not incredible with a +350 ITD line. One takedown or one reversal could be all she needs.
She’s just a boom or bust version of a grappler in that sense. For 7.5k, using some Jandiroba is fine. She’ll only be a secondary option for me and I’ll probably lean toward some other dogs straight up, but I respect the skills of Jandiroba and consider her a live dog here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Godinez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Julio Arce vs. Herbert Burns
Fight Odds: Arce -368, Burns +290
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Arce 9.5k, Burns 6.7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting matchup here between two bantamweights in Julio Arce and Herbert Burns who both have not fought for more than a year and a half.
Julio Arce was last seen in action in November of 2022 where he lost a decision to the very tough Montel Jackson.
Arce is mostly a striker and he doesn’t wrestle often. He lands 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes and his offensive wrestling isn’t very strong, so I don’t expect him to take down anyone with decent takedown defense. He also defends takedowns at a fantastic 95 percent. So generally, Arce’s fights play out on the feet.
I do think Arce is decent on the back with body triangles if he manages to get there. He choked out Daniel Teymur and showed decent competency. Again though, he doesn’t wrestle much and I generally expect him to strike.
Arce is a pretty skilled striker. He put on a counter striking masterclass in his last win against Daniel Santos in 2022. He lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.10 in return.
Arce has a little power, and he knocked out Julian Erosa and Andre Ewell. He was knocked down by Sheymon Moraes twice in their matchup, and he was also knocked out by Yadong. I still don’t think his durability is awful, but it probably isn’t a strength of his either.
Arce is honestly just a pretty good striker in general though. He can also strike going backwards which shows his skill level. His backfoot performance against Daniel Santos was awesome to watch. Arce schooled Andre Ewell, Julian Erosa, and a less developed Dan Ige on the feet. The only guys who really beat him in striking minutes were Hakeem Dawodu, Song Yadong, and Montel Jackson who are all solid strikers.
Arce will be taking on Herbert Burns who is the brother of Gilbert Burns. I honestly didn’t know Burns was still in the UFC and he has only fought twice in the last four years. He lost both of those fights, and was beaten to a pulp and finished in round two in both of them.
Burns is a submission grappler and early finisher. He comes out of the gate hot and looks to land random strikes or blitz for an early submission. He is dangerous for a bit. However, this guy is an absolute front runner and has no durability or cardio whatsoever. He crumbles to any adversity that comes his way.
In Burns’ early UFC career, he quickly finished Nate Landwehr and Evan Dunham which is hilarious to think about because Landwehr probably wins that fight 80 percent of the time. Burns then fought Daniel Pineda and Bill Algeo. He failed to finish Pineda and Alego, faced adversity, and got beaten up badly.
Burns just has no cardio. He can’t fight as a striker or grappler for more than a few minutes and he is just made to quit. I know that sounds harsh, but it is objective analysis and I really think you can project Burns to either win a fight quickly, or he is going to lose and probably lose badly.
I have to go with Arce in this spot. If this fight gets extended in any way, Arce is the far superior fighter in a prolonged fight as he is a WAY better striker and has exponentially better cardio than Burns. My guess is Burns will come out aggressively and either obtain an early finish, or just fail to obtain a finish and get dominated and finished himself.
My guess is that Arce survives the early storm. Arce has great takedown defense and I think Burns’ submissions are the most dangerous aspect of his game. I just think Burns will probably fail to easily land takedowns and start to crumble after he starts getting hit a bit. Maybe Burns can land something big and win by knockout, but I generally project those things to not happen all that often.
My guess is Arce survives the early storm, puts Burns through adversity and finishes him midway through this fight.
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On DraftKings, Arce is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k, which is a bit unusual for what he’s shown in the past.
But he’s fighting Herbert Burns, who as Tim laid out, has absolutely crumbled under pressure and hasn’t fought in two years. He’s now 36 years old so it’s hard to expect many improvements.
Arce’s bull case is that he’s very likely to win by knockout, if he wins at all, as Burns typically cannot last 15 minutes. Arce has a great ITD line of -175 and the fight is -325 to end inside the distance.
His finishing upside alone certainly puts him in contention on this slate.
The problem is that Arce doesn’t produce a ton of offense, and a lot of his finishes come late. He also doesn’t wrestle much, so it’s possible the first several minutes of this fight aren’t dominant in Arce’s favor.
In his late-round KOs, Arce has scored 88, 90 and 97 DK points, which is fine but not spectacular. I would want more from Arce at 9.5k this week.
So that’s the conundrum. Arce is very likely to win by KO, yes, but he’s not exceptionally likely to win by KO in round one. He’s not incredibly easy to fit but I’m still expecting a decent amount of attention to go his way, just based on the matchup and based on his ITD line.
Given the strength of this slate, I actually don’t mind coming in a bit lighter on Arce this week and taking more chances on cheaper options. Of course he’ll still project just fine if you do have the salary to fit him in. It’s not wrong to lean into the overall ITD because his floor/ceiling combination in a TKO will still be strong.
I just worry a little bit about the top-end upside, and the price is mildly concerning too. There are too many other options I also like for me to target Arce aggressively over all others, and I wouldn’t mind being a bit underweight if he projects to be popular.
Burns at 6.7k is viable… as a pure early finishing option. He’s obviously difficult to be confident in though.
He’s a skilled fighter honestly. His submission game is quite strong. It wouldn’t be a super crazy result. It’s just that he’s absolutely death gassed after a few minutes which just makes it hard for him to achieve consistent success.
Arce is pretty defensively sound and doesn’t rate out as the type to lose ITD quickly here, but neither guy has fought in a while and that brings in some variance.
Burns is +400 to win ITD which isn’t great, but fine for the price and I doubt he’ll be popular. With a small portfolio, you’re probably just going to pass here given the big dog moneyline, and I think it’s worth chasing other fighters with more win equity.
With a large portfolio, Burns is a fine small percentage punt. I don’t think it will work out but if he wins, he’s likely contending for the optimal.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Arce by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Dennis Buzukja vs. Connor Matthews
Fight Odds: Buzukja -113, Matthews -102
Odds to Finish: +105
DraftKings Salaries: Buzukja 8.4k, Matthews 7.8k
Weight Class: 145
One of the most slept-on fights on this slate, we should have a pretty exciting scrap here between Dennis Buzukja and newcomer Connor Matthews.
Matthews will be making his UFC debut at age 31, and he’s 7-1 as a pro with five wins by submission and one win by knockout. He actually fought on DWCS twice, first losing to Francis Marshall by decision in 2022, and following that up with a decision win against Jair Farias in 2023.
Matthews has a background as an Air Force combat controller, and he seems like a super tough guy. That’s never a great thing to showcase as it typically means you are losing, but we did see him get beaten up pretty good in that Contender Series loss to Marshall, who took him down six times and landed more than 100 sig. strikes as well.
But outside of that loss, Matthews has mostly rolled through his regional competition. The majority of his wins are super quick submissions, where he’s just taking the guy down, getting their back, and choking them out. It’s a good style for success, but quick wins against poor competition on the regional scene doesn’t usually mean a ton as far as how those skills will translate into the UFC.
I did like to see him return to DWCS and win a decision, which was the first of his career. He actually landed seven takedowns in that fight himself, and got the better of the striking exchanges as well.
Before the fight he had noted the mistakes he made against Marshall, and how he aimed to fix those. Take it with a grain of salt but it’s never bad to see fighters lose, gain experience, and identify where they need to improve.
Although I don’t consider Matthews an elite talent, he’s decent and will probably give the bottom tier of the division a run for their money.
He just likes to fight at a high pace. He can wrestle adequately and his submission grappling is decent. I’m unsure of his exact BJJ belt but I’d guess he’s mid-level. There are definitely situations I’ve seen him from him on the mat that suggest he needs to tighten things up, but he’s pretty capable and should be able to easily outgrapple weak opponents.
Defensively there’s still probably a lot of room for growth. He was getting taken down too easily by Marshall and although he did fine to survive and scramble free, he will probably give up takedowns again to good wrestlers.
As a striker, Matthews will still come forward and throw hands. He has some power, but he’s not the most technical guy. He has slowed down in both decisions and eaten a lot of strikes, so I worry about his defense.
For now, I consider Matthews a tough fighter, who likes to fight at a high pace, and will generally have early success with his grappling. But he will certainly be outclassed by better technicians, and I worry a little bit about him getting tired late.
His UFC debut opponent will be Dennis Buzukja, who also made the UFC after two Contender Series attempts, but has since lost both of his matchups within the UFC.
The most notable part of his game isn’t his game at all, it’s the fact that he trains with Merab and Aljo, and even has some cornering experience with the latter.
As far as his skills though, Buzukja is mediocre at best. He too is a tough guy and semi-capable in all areas, but he doesn’t have any skill set that distinguishes him and I don’t see his skills carrying him far at this level.
Within the UFC, Buzukja first lost a decision to Sean Woodson. That’s no big deal, Woodson is a tough task and a super tall, long boxer. However, the issue wasn’t the boxing. It was that Woodson actually landed four takedowns and outgrappled Buzukja, which is really concerning considering Woodson had no grappling success prior to that.
Most recently, Buzukja was KOd very quickly by Jamall Emmers, who is another talented opponent but not a fighter known for his knockout power.
Even on DWCS, Buzukja won a decision in which he was held against the cage for long periods of time, and couldn’t really stand out from that opponent. He did find a knockdown there, and I would say his striking is going to be his best attribute overall.
Buzukja is a decent kickboxer and should have the advantages at kicking range in this matchup. I’ve seen Matthews eaten up by some kicks, and given the amount of strikes he’s absorbed in total, Buzukja definitely has some damage upside.
But Matthews might be the more dangerous boxer at points, and he honestly might be more durable as well with Buzukja coming off a KO loss.
The wrestling should be fun as well, and I think Matthews is the better grappler in total. It’s hard to watch Buzukja get held against the cage and get his back taken by Woodson, and it feels like Matthews can replicate some of that success.
I don’t know if Matthews can find a finish though, which is an issue. Even if Matthews can land a few takedowns and earn control early in the fight, Buzukja has good cardio and might be able to wear him down over the course of 15 minutes.
Matthews has also shown poor first-level takedown defense so I think Buzukja might have mild wrestling equity as well.
Overall, what I like about this fight is that both guys typically want to engage at a high pace, so it could be pretty exciting early.
I think I lean toward Matthews having more success early with his wrestling, and he might just be able to win the fight outright with that alone. It’s possible he can even win by submission if he can consistently get to the back, though I don’t consider that an extremely likely outcome.
The longer the fight goes though, the more I think Buzukja can start to damage Matthews standing, and maybe take over and win the fight himself. Both fighters have mild knockout upside along the way.
I’m going to lean toward the underdog here due to wrestling upside but there’s no reason to be exceptionally confident.
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On DraftKings, my preferred target is the underdog Matthews at 7.8k, primarily for his wrestling upside.
I’m not fully convinced he will succeed, but he typically likes to wrestle early and we’ve now seen him capable of surpassing 5+ takedowns over three rounds, which is legitimate base upside.
Against an opponent who has been outgrappled by weak competition, I do think Matthews has potential and I’m willing to target him personally. He’s only +275 to win ITD but Matthews fights at a high enough pace that I feel he can exceed value at 7.8k even in a decision win.
The betting line is moving in his direction as well, so Matthews is a mild value at -102 to win, and it’s possible he gets extra ownership thrown his way because of that.
While Matthews should only be considered a secondary target, I like his chances to win and to wrestle, and that’s enough for me to make an investment here at this price tag.
Buzukja at 8.4k doesn’t interest me as much, though if he wins, it could still come from a lot of action. He might have some wrestling equity, and he might have more KO upside with a +250 ITD line.
I don’t think the public will want to target Buzukja at all though, coming off back-to-back ugly losses, and Matthews will very likely be the more popular side. It’s quite possible Buzukja isn’t really targeted at all in this range and ends up fully contrarian.
Honestly, I’m not that excited by him because there are other clear stand out fights or fighters in this mid-range who I have to prioritize. Buzukja likely needs a knockout to be optimal and that does feel like a tough ask. Especially as he might be getting taken down early, his TKO upside might come later in the fight which also limits his ceiling.
I don’t hate Buzukja for contrarian purposes if you have lots of lineups to play with, mostly because Matthews’ defense is questionable, but he’s certainly not a priority for me and I’ll be relatively light on Buzukja this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Matthews by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ibo Aslan vs. Anton Turkalj
Fight Odds: Aslan -121, Turkalj +105
Odds to Finish: -400
DraftKings Salaries: Aslan 8.3k, Turkalj 7.9k
Weight Class: 205
A very dangerous finisher on the regionals, Ibo Aslan will make his UFC debut this weekend against the last man to beat him in Anton Turkalj.
Aslan is 12-1 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned all 12 wins by knockout, the vast majority of them coming in the first round. He’s a Turkish product who is pretty shredded physically, but I’m quite skeptical as to how his game will translate to the UFC level.
I will always have major concerns about fighters who haven’t consistently fought to a decision, prior to making their debuts. Cardio is usually in question, as is durability, as is basically every other aspect of MMA besides their ability to put away chumps in 60 seconds on the regional scene.
Aslan won’t be any different. This guy has marched through a handful of weak opponents, including his opponent on DWCS in August, who he knocked out in two minutes.
The guy is clearly powerful, and that can certainly translate to damage against better competition. He throws nice leg kicks, which is also a technique that I love. But we’re severely lacking in sample here and typically, fighters who dominate early tend not to do so well in extended fights.
It’s no coincidence that Aslan is matched up against Anton Turkalj, who is not particularly good, yet Aslan only sits as a small -125 favorite this weekend.
Aslan’s one and only loss came to Turkalj in 2020, where Turkalj submitted him with a RNC in the second round.
You can watch that fight, and it’s not super pretty. Aslan walks Turkalj down, and lands a couple of nice leg kicks. Turkalj can’t connect with much offensively. Aslan ends up on top of Turkalj early but can’t produce offense from top position and Turkalj gets back up on his feet.
In round two, Turkalj lands a takedown of his own, and moves immediately into mount. From there, Aslan gives up his back to stand up and gets choked out.
It’s honestly an awful fight, and especially the ending sequence. Put everything else aside. Watching Turkalj immediately advance into mount from the takedown is a glaring red flag and tells me that at that time, Aslan really did not know how to grapple at all. It’s an elementary mistake to make.
Since that fight, Aslan has competed four times, and he’s never made it to the halfway point of the first round. There’s been no worthwhile ground exchanges. So we’re essentially just guessing on whether or not Turkalj can survive the first few minutes, and whether or not Aslan has improved as a grappler since that point.
The latter is impossible to answer, but it has been four years. One would assume that in four years, all skills will improve. However, I cannot assume what I have not seen and you know what they say.. assumptions make an Aslan out of you and me.
The other side of the coin is that Turkalj is not especially talented himself, and he’s 0-3 in the UFC with three ugly defeats. He’s coming off a first-round knockout loss to Tyson Pedro in September. He calls himself “The Pleasure Man” but that’s certainly not the experience I’ve had watching his fights.
Prior to that, he went to war against Vitor Petrino, who has turned out quite solid, but that fight was super messy and doesn’t make me particularly excited about Turkalj’s chances moving forward.
Turkalj is generally a pace fighter who lacks defense, but that’s probably enough to favor him over Aslan if this fight gets extended.
He’s faced a lot of adversity already in his UFC career, including giving up seven takedowns to Petrino. Unlike Aslan, who probably would have tapped out after the first time he hit the floor, Turkalj was constantly working back to his feet and ultimately landed five takedowns of his own.
We also saw him land 11 takedowns on DWCS which I loved, but all that earned him was a sacrifice against Jailton Almeida. That was also the only decision win of Turkalj’s career.
So, what am I expecting to happen this weekend?
My best guess is something similar to what we saw when the two fought last time. I think Aslan is the more physical fighter, and the more dangerous striker. He’s likely to pressure, and try to knock Turkalj out early. I also love those leg kicks and that could be an impactful tool in helping him reach his goal.
However, if he cannot knock Turkalj out early, it’s very difficult to picture him avoiding all takedowns, and surviving a full three rounds. While I cannot be confident, I have to believe Turkalj is still the superior submission grappler.
If Turkalj can take Aslan down, the fight probably just ends there. If not, it might be the beginning of the end. Aslan has not shown any ability to fight back from adversity, and I doubt his game holds up if he’s tired.
Turkalj has terrible striking defense and wrestling defense though, so his game is not one that I particularly trust. But he’s more experienced in extended fights and grappling gives him a very real path to victory.
The problem is what we saw early in their first fight, which is that Turkalj’s wrestling isn’t very good, and that’s why Aslan is ultimately the favorite here. The public thinks the most likely outcome is that these two will strike, and Aslan will find the knockout.
I have no problems with picking that outcome, and I honestly will lean toward that outcome myself. Turkalj just seems to get hurt often and his durability is suspect. Aslan will probably have a moment or two early. But if Turkalj can survive, do not be surprised to see the underdog flip the script and end the fight dominantly himself.
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On DraftKings, this fight is going to rate out very well given the -400 ITD line, but I have to admit I am still nervous about it.
Mostly because I am good at finding things to make me nervous but also, the first fight was just so ugly. I can’t really count on either of these fighters for consistent offensive production.
Aslan has mild wrestling equity at best and I don’t think his volume striking is anything special. There’s a pretty realistic chance that he’s completely dependent on a first-round KO and that anything outside of that would mean his potential for upside is crushed.
Turkalj has more grappling upside on paper but it’s possible he might not be able to land any takedowns. An extended fight here could look really ugly, even if it ultimately does end ITD.
Still, I guess we don’t have much of a choice but to invest here at these prices. Aslan is 8.3k and he’s lined at -115 to win ITD. Despite losing last time, I think he’ll be the more popular fighter of the two and a first-round KO would set him on the optimal track.
I am scared enough by his style that I don’t plan to be extremely overweight here, but I’ll probably have moderate exposure to Aslan by default. I think his win condition lies too heavily in an early KO that it would be a major risk to avoid him, or take major stands against the field.
Turkalj at 7.9k may be the leverage side, and if so, I would like that. I think he’ll be less owned as the underdog, and because he’s lost three ugly fights in a row.
His win condition is still likely rooted in an early or mid-round finish though, and it could potentially come on the mat. He’s +195 to win ITD which is pretty strong too. I’d like mild to moderate exposure to Turkalj because of that.
If we end up projecting Aslan to be much heavier owned than Turkalj publicly, it would be a fine strategy to lean into the leverage and invest in the opposite direction, ending up higher than market on Turkalj.
Overall, I don’t believe either of these fighters will have much success in the UFC long term, and this could be a very messy debut for Aslan. But the fight is projected to end ITD at a high rate, with a somewhat binary dynamic, which tends to lead to big scores.
It’s extremely boom or bust, but I think we have to lean into the boom side here and hope for the best.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Aslan by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Viktoriia Dudakova vs. Melissa Gatto
Fight Odds: Gatto -157, Dudakova +136
Odds to Finish: +150
DraftKings Salaries: Gatto 8.5k, Dudakova 7.7k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Melissa Gatto came into the UFC back in 2021 where she turned some heads after a hot start but has since cooled back down – she’s 2-2 in the UFC and 8-2-2 as a pro. Viktoriia Dudakova has also had an interesting run as she blew her knee out on the Contender Series back in 2022, but powered through to earn a contract. She then debuted against Nunes where Nunes dislocated her elbow in a minute. She followed that up with a weight miss and semi-lackluster performance against an aged Jinh Yu Frey. Dudakova will now be moving up in weight to make her flyweight debut – she’s 2-0 in the UFC and 8-0 as a pro.
The striking component:
Gatto’s a weird case study off the top considering that she appears to have leveled up since her regional days.
The amount of stand up we’ve seen in recent years from her hasn’t been extensive, but she is a long girl with some snappy straight punches.
We saw her get the better of the boxing against Leonardo, nearly 2xing her at distance and landing above an 50% clip. Granted, Leonardo is a punching bag and was fighting with one arm – take that for what you will.
We saw little stand-up time against Eubanks, but she did land some good straight shots and ultimately put Eubanks down with a body kick in the 3rd round – pretty memey finish but nonetheless she threw the strike and put her down.
She also got the better of the exchanges against Cortez in the minimal time that fight was on the feet.
Most recently, she out landed Lipski 70-53 at distance and got the better of the clinch striking but really lost on round sequencing/optics. Her going backwards for larger chunks of that fight just didn’t look good, but the scorecards were all over the place and scoring that fight for Gatto was justifiable.
Defensively, she appears to still have hittable tendencies but will move on the outside as well.
Overall, Gatto isn’t a world beater on the feet but she’s a scrappy girl and has clearly made evolutions in the last 3-4 years.
We have all of Dudakova’s pro fights available but because she’s had so much ground success, we don’t have a ton to go off of in regards to her striking.
I guess she started kickboxing in her teens, but I haven’t seen anything that’s blown my hair back. She appears to be one of those girls who’s primarily going to use her striking to close distance to work her ground game.
She did drop a girl in her 3rd pro fight, but the girl was also 0-0 so take that for what you will.
We saw a healthy amount of distance time against Frey though where she out landed her at distance 60-37, although the 1st and 3rd rounds were still competitive. She scored a flash knockdown on Frey at the end of the 1st but Frey also hit her pretty clean throughout that fight, despite not landing much overall volume.
Outside of that, girls have landed some shots here and there but nothing meaningful for me to take much out of.
Overall, I’m going to need a much bigger sample of Dudakova standing to make any definitive claims with her, but she’s got some quick hands and is capable on the feet. Once again though, she hasn’t fought any real solid strikers or faced extensive volume.
How it plays out: Gatto will serve as the biggest/longest girl that Dudakova has fought in her career which makes things interesting off the top. Gatto isn’t great by any means but if Frey, who was a former 105er, was able to land on Dudakova at 46%, I’m assuming Gatto will be able to land here as well – especially considering she out landed Lipski on the numbers who’s a good striker. But despite Dudakova coming up, she’s a lanky girl as well and Gatto isn’t very good defensively either. I generally see a competitive striking affair when this fight is standing but lean Gatto.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Gatto is a grappler by base, repping a BJJ brown belt and has finished four of her eight pro wins via submission.
We saw her hit an inside trip on Leonardo and attempt the same against Eubanks but overall, she doesn’t appear to be a very good wrestler – she took Cortez down a handful of times from body lock positions though who’s a base wrestler, but struggled to maintain control positions.
The primary merit to Gatto has been from bottom as she’s shown an aggressive guard. She was able to transition to Leonardo’s back at points and was able to sweep Eubanks in the 2nd round of their fight and ride the round out on top.
It was a pretty basic elevator sweep that I more so attribute her getting due to Eubanks being exhausted but nonetheless, still pretty impressive to sweep a girl like Eubanks.
Despite her aggressive guard and longer limbs, my issue with her is that she will play guard and is submission over position.
We saw this back regionally for her as well as she’s content to sit there, which just isn’t a great characteristic to have in 2024 because if those submissions don’t come, you’re dropping rounds in many scenarios.
She was ultimately grinded out by Cortez, and spent a little time on her back late against Lipski off a failed throw in a critical round.
Overall, Gatto has better jiu-jitsu than I’ve given her credit for in the past but I’m still of the opinion she can be locked down by better positional players and will continue to lose minutes there, should she be grounded.
Dudakova is a BJJ purple belt with the ground being the primary area of success for her to date. She’s consistent to shoot early and often, and has been able to land her TDs with doubles, trips or throws.
From top, she’s largely been strong but has had some submission over position elements at times. She’s also traditionally not running through girls in two seconds, so it does take a little while for her to work into more dominant positions to set up her subs.
What I don’t like is that I’ve seen her go for lateral drops in four different fights to which she’s failed on three of them. The problem with that move is that if you don’t execute it perfectly, you essentially just pull the opponent on top of you, in certain instances into mount – it’s not a high percentage TD and is risky. In her defense, she will usually look to invert, attack legs or look to create space other ways.
On the Contender Series, she had wrestling success in both the 1st and 3rd rounds but early in the 2nd, she failed one of those lateral drops. She got mounted and controlled for roughly three minutes of that round. In her defense, she hip escaped, recovered her guard eventually and didn’t panic.
Most recently, she went 0/3 against Frey and actually dropped the 2nd round on her back, conceding roughly four minutes of control after Frey hit a nice drive through double.
Overall, it’s always difficult to tell how good of wrestler/grappler these younger Euro chicks are because they haven’t fought a murderer’s row of competition. But I can’t discredit some of the work she’s done so far. There’s still definitely attributes of hers that give me concern though.
How it plays out: I see upside to both girls based on sequencing/historics. I do feel Dudakova is the better wrestler here though as I’ve just seen more diversity in her TD arsenal and she’s more consistent to pursue. Not to sound like a broken record but Gatto is the biggest girl Dudakova’s fought who is physically strong, and Dudakova struggling to take down Frey gives me some pause here. I just don’t like Gatto’s elements of playing guard though so Dudakova’s probably more likely to control ground minutes. However, we’ve seen Dudakova stuck on her back for multiple minutes and lose rounds that way as well, so if Gatto is able to get on top of her, she could win rounds here too. Both girls have capable jiu-jitsu games, but I’d lean to Gatto’s being a bit slicker– I’m just not sure how Dudakova deals with guard attacks.
Interesting fight. I’ve been critical of Gatto ever since she came into the UFC and thought she was over-rated to which I feel a bit vindicated now with her riding a 2-fight skid. However, she’s gotten a lot better since her regional days and has had to fight some tough/established girls in her last three fights in Eubanks, Cortez and Lipski – all of which she gave honest fights to. The market has been generally high on Dudakova as well (-500 to Frey which she did not cover at all), to which I’m still pretty skeptical of her in current form although I feel she could have a decent ceiling at just 25 years old. It’s a variable fight but I lean more to the Gatto side as the bigger/more natural flyweight who’s fought a stronger strength of schedule.
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On DraftKings, given some question marks on both sides, I really don’t plan on prioritizing this matchup among most others on the slate.
Gatto is priced at 8.5k, and she very likely needs a win ITD to have a shot at the optimal lineup. Both of her wins have come via TKO and she scored 117 in one of them, and only 82 in the other.
She could have wrestling equity in this spot but it doesn’t seem like the greatest situation. If the fight plays out on the feet, I wouldn’t expect tons of volume and I’d be surprised to see either woman reach a ceiling.
Gatto is +215 to win ITD which is actually decent compared to her profile. I mean, if she can get a finish, perhaps she can contend for the optimal. I really doubt she’ll be owned much at all with the strength of other favorites on this slate. If you want to lean into the ITD alone for contrarian purposes, I understand, but I can’t recommend her as anything more than a mix-in to be unique.
Dudakova at 7.7k has a bit more appeal because of her typical wrestling style. I would expect a win from Dudakova to come with takedowns, but the issue is with her lack of finishing ability.
She is only +500 to win ITD which is quite poor, and I don’t think it’s likely for her to finish Gatto. On the feet, I don’t think Dudakova will get much done and I wouldn’t expect her to compete for the optimal.
In theory, targeting wrestlers always makes sense given the scoring system. You can consider a small amount of Dudakova because of that. However, I don’t see a great chance for Dudakova to dominate, even in a win, and there are too many other high-upside underdogs on this slate.
I think I’ll generally choose to avoid Dudakova and this fight as a whole, and just shoot for bigger ceilings elsewhere.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gatto by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Andre Petroski vs. Jacob Malkoun
Fight Odds: Malkoun -240, Petroski +200
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Malkoun 9k, Petroski 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have really enjoyed watching Jacob Malkoun in the UFC and this should be another fun matchup against Andre Petroski.
I have been really impressed by Malkoun’s wrestling, especially because he comes from Australia which is not exactly known for developing high-level wrestlers.
It was also extremely frustrating watching him lose via disqualification in his last fight against Cody Brundage, who pathetically quit and took the easy way out when the ref gave him a chance.
Malkoun lands a whopping 7.20 takedowns per 15 minutes which is just bonkers. He is a solid wrestler with a lot of takedown variety, and a crazy pace. He lost to Brendan Allen, but I actually thought he won that fight, and he ultimately outlanded Allen in takedowns 7-2. Malkoun can also just drain opponents with his mat-returns and heavy top game.
I do wish Malkoun had a bit better of a submission game though. He has seven wins professionally and doesn’t have a single submission win in his career, even against regional competition, which is very surprising honestly.
Malkoun isn’t much of a striker. He isn’t indefensible there, but he isn’t going to be trustworthy to win fights with striking only. He lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.49 in return, but those are skewed metrics based on Malkoun almost always being in top position with his wrestling. I feel like Malkoun is just a pace fighter and if he has success standing it will generally be with his pace.
Malkoun actually defends takedowns at zero percent. He has surrendered three takedowns in the UFC, two to Brendan Allen and one to Cody Brundage. However, he worked up nicely in all of those exchanges and seems to have a good get-up game on the mat.
Malkoun will be taking on UFC veteran Andre Petroski. Petroski is mostly a wrestler. He lands 4.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I consider him an overall strong wrestler. He also defends takedowns at 71 percent, and I generally think he works up well and is hard to take down.
Petroski has decent control in top position and is a decent power-based submission grappler. I don’t think he is great as a submission grappler, but he does have a couple of submission wins in the UFC, including an anaconda choke against Nick Maximov.
Petroski isn’t a great striker. He lands 3.61 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.03 in return, but those metrics are also skewed because Petroski is generally in top position landing ground-and-pound. Petroski is powerful though and capable of landing big strikes early while fresh. However, I borderline consider him a liability on the feet, especially when fights get extended.
One major issue with Petroski is his cardio. We have seen him slow down and lose in fights on multiple occasions. He lost by tiring out on TUF, and he also has slowed down in other fights, including his last fight that went three rounds against Gerald Meerschaert.
The cardio advantage is why I lean Malkoun in this matchup. I just think Malkoun will push a hard pace that will eventually tire Petroski out, and Malkoun will be at an advantage later in this fight.
When fresh, I think either of these guys can land takedowns, but both guys may struggle holding the other guy down. However, I just think eventually if anyone consolidates top position, it will be Malkoun as he is just the more conditioned athlete.
On the feet, I think Malkoun puts together more consistent offense, while Petroski hits a bit harder. I also think the striking will be competitive, but Malkoun can probably take over based on his cardio advantage.
Overall, this fight will probably be competitive for a while, with both guys capable of landing strikes and the occasional takedown. Petroski also has an outside chance of hurting Malkoun early.
However, one guy in Malkoun has an endless gas tank while one guy in Petroski does not. So I think Malkoun is the rightful favorite here.
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On DraftKings, I’m definitely interested in this matchup and more specifically on the Malkoun side.
He’s just shown elite wrestling upside throughout his UFC career, and I think investing in these types of fighters is smart in the long run.
Malkoun has scored 131, 129 and 115 in his wins, and all of them have come by decision. Yes, his lack of finishing ability is a problem, and he’s only +260 to win ITD in this matchup, but I’m not sure it matters.
A win for Malkoun very likely comes from several takedowns, lots of control, and lots of ground strikes.
Now we’re getting an opponent in Petroski who has a bad history of crumbling after he gets tired, so it feels like Malkoun has tons of upside in a victory. The problem is that early, this fight might be very competitive and Petroski still has a shot to win. The longer the fight goes though, the more I would favor Malkoun to take over, as Petroski should slow down and has shown to be poor form his back.
At 9k, Malkoun is one of my favorite options on the slate for pure upside. Again, there is risk in the fight being competitive early and Petroski is skilled enough to pull off the upset, but IN A WIN, I like Malkoun’s floor/ceiling combo a lot.
There are still several other fighters in this range who also carry upside, so it’s not a 100% vs. 0% situation where you have to fade everyone else. I will be spreading out my exposure. But we’re getting a discount on Malkoun from the top end and his affordability could make him chalky among this tier.
Overall, Malkoun is a very strong play this week in all formats given his aggressive wrestling style, and I’ll have moderate exposure at least.
Petroski probably works best as a hedge for me at 7.2k. It just counters the downside of Malkoun potentially losing.
If Petroski wins, it probably also comes with takedowns, and an early finish. He is +300 to win ITD here but likely has the better chance to win in round one. Even via decision, if he were to somehow pull that off, it could come with a knockdown or several takedowns, and I’d be interested for the price.
I don’t love Petroski as a whole because this is a very tough matchup and I expect him to tire out, but he’s skilled enough and style will still lead to big scores in wins.
At 7.2k, especially if there’s leverage against Malkoun, Petroski is a solid tournament option. He’ll be a lower end secondary target for me because I primarily want to invest in Malkoun, but a mix of Petroski to punt, to hedge and for leverage is acceptable.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Malkoun by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Angel Pacheco vs. Caolan Loughran
Fight Odds: Loughran -386, Pacheco +302
Odds to Finish: -180
DraftKings Salaries: Loughran 9.4k, Pachecho 6.8k
Weight Class: 135
The man who just went blow-for-blow with Danny Silva on the Contender Series, Angel Pacheco will get his chance at the big show on Saturday against another hungry prospect in Caolan Loughran.
Loughran is 8-1 professionally at age 27, and he holds five wins by TKO and two by submission.
Loughran came into the UFC last September and lost a decision to Taylor Lapilus. Prior to that, he held the bantamweight championship in Cage Warriors which is a decent regional promotion.
I consider Loughran best on the ground where he’s a physical wrestler and a good submission grappler. HIs style is weird though. The guy looks like Alexander Hernandez which creeps me out, but it shows his physical build.
He’ll pressure pretty intensely, looking to draw out reactions from his opponents. But he’ll put his hands way out there just hoping to get reactions, and it’s not a traditional boxing guard.
I don’t love his striking and I don’t think that’s where he will have success in the UFC outside of the physical aspect. He definitely hits hard and earned a recent standing knockout win on the regionals, but he doesn’t really move his head and I think he’s defensively liable.
He’s also very low volume, and he doesn’t project as a strong round winner on the feet. Against Lapilus, Loughran was only able to land 48 significant strikes, while absorbing 84, in a fight that mostly played out on the feet.
The grappling is where I think he can have success though. I’m not sure exactly what his background is but I think he’s competed at the regional ADCC level. I’d probably rate him to be an above-average grappler, which is also aided by his physicality.
His upside is diving in on double legs against the cage, landing takedowns, and getting the back. From there his control is decent, and he can win with ground-and-pound or a submission.
Loughran was able to have some success against Lapilus and that’s exactly how he earned it – double legs against the cage and control, which won him the second round. Unfortunately, he was only able to go 2 for 11 on takedown attempts, which wasn’t enough to swing the other rounds in his favor.
Now he’ll be taking on Angel Pacheco, who is 7-2 professionally at age 32, and I don’t consider him a great prospect.
He’s earned all seven of his victories inside the distance, including four by knockout and three by submission. He is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and I think he’s a decent technical boxer as well.
The issue, among others, is what we saw in his DWCS fight against Silva. Although Pacheco showed a lot of toughness there, and fought back from adversity where a lot of other fighters might not have done the same, Pacheco still absorbed more than 200 sig. strikes in 15 minutes.
He is simply not athletic enough, not fast enough, and not powerful enough to be impactful with this style. Even on the regional scene, in one of his recent TKO wins, he got dropped very early in that fight.
The guy is super hittable and I don’t see that changing moving forward.
I also don’t have a great grasp of his grappling, but I’m hesitant to believe it’s any good. His pure submission game is likely fine given his brown belt credentials, but for him to consistently get in advantageous positions is a whole different conversation. It’s very difficult to expect his offensive wrestling to be good enough, and he only attempted one takedown on DWCS.
Silva took him down twice on DWCS and didn’t control him, but I don’t think Pacheco’s first-level takedown defense will be good enough, again partially because he lacks physicality.
That’s going to be where Loughran really has the advantage in this matchup. Loughran is a strong, physical fighter, and I don’t consider Pacheco to be.
If we assume Loughran continues to bully his way into takedown attempts, I think he’s very likely to succeed. From there, I think control is the most likely outcome, but it is not a guarantee. While I have respected the offensive output I’ve seen from Loughran, perhaps Pacheco is sound enough on the mat to defend and scramble free.
That could lead to a situation where Loughran continuously needs more takedowns to earn the control he wants. Maybe that gets him tired. Or maybe, it forces him into more boxing exchanges that could eventually get him hurt.
Pacheco was beaten up quite badly on DWCS but still landed 197 sig. strikes of his own. That’s a crazy high pace that Loughran cannot keep up with on the feet.
The difference between Silva and Loughran is that Loughran will not just allow those pocket exchanges though. If he’s in danger, he’ll force Pachecho backward into the cage to clinch, and then it becomes a physicality and cardio battle.
Ultimately, I have to favor the physical wrestler here in Loughran, who I still quite like as a prospect, despite his debut loss. But this is a “prove it” fight for him because Pachecho is not on the same level as him physically.
My best guess is that Loughran will indeed succeed with takedowns, earn control, and maybe even find a stoppage along the way. I liked his ability to shoot for takedowns in round three against Lapilus, even though he was failing, and it gives me some hope that even if Pachecho can scramble free early, Loughran has the cardio available to continue to pursue that game.
Should the fight take place on the feet, Pachecho will be live for survivability purposes. Loughran still might be able to hurt him too because Pacheco is so hittable, so it’s not a situation where a few boxing exchanges means the end of the fight for Loughran. I’d be much more worried about a situation in which he gets tired, cannot wrestle, and that’s what could allow Pacheco to come from behind and start to land damage.
I just don’t project that outcome to happen at a super high rate here, given the discrepancy in wrestling and physicality.
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On DraftKings, Loughran is priced up to 9.4k and is rightfully among the top tier of fighters this week.
I honestly consider him one of the safest options too, not just because he’s a -386 favorite to win, but because of his wrestling style. Even if Loughran wins by decision, I would expect it to come from takedowns and control, which could still be enough to surpass 100 points and help him contend for the optimal lineup.
There will be a couple of super chalky options in Malkoun and Blanchfield priced below him though, along with other top-tier considerations nearby like Arce and Silva, so Loughran isn’t necessarily a stand out. Honestly, I’m sort of thinking and hoping that he becomes the least owned fighter of this top tier.
I think there are situations where lineup construction won’t allow you to fit in this salary, which is fine. And it’s also fine to prioritize someone else in this range with more finishing equity. Loughran is -115 to win ITD which is good, but it’s not a stand out metric.
I’m hopeful that these things, including the fact that Loughran lost in his debut, won’t make him super chalky. He still rates out well and carries some of the best grappling equity on the slate, but I don’t think he’ll be the top option that the public leans into for tournaments.
I will always aim to invest pretty heavily in grappling dependent fighters though, and so Loughran might appeal more to me than the public this week. I love his wrestling based ceiling and I like the safety we get on DK from a wrestling style.
At worst he’s a solid secondary or pivot option in the top range, but I may make it an effort to target him more than the field this week.
Pacheco at 6.8k doesn’t interest me a whole lot. He at least has a path to victory with his hands, but I’m not certain how much he’ll be able to use them.
I doubt he has much wrestling equity, and it’s possible he just gets held down for the whole fight. He’s only +425 to win ITD and I don’t consider him a great power striker who can win by KO at any moment.
The best case is simply to buy into a lack of data. We’re light on data on both sides, and perhaps we’ll see more holes in Loughran’s game than we’ve seen in the past. Or perhaps Pacheco will show some improved ground game that leads to more striking exchanges.
His floor is so low though, and his ceiling is questionable as well. Pacheco just doesn’t excite me in this matchup and I will be very light on exposure for him this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Loughran by Decision (Confidence=Medium)