UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas (3/23/24)

​​Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Timand Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

---

MAIN CARD

Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas

Fight Odds: Namajunas -213, Ribas +180

Odds to Finish: -160

DraftKings Salaries: Namajunas 9.2k, Ribas 7k

Weight Class: 125

The former strawweight champion and a superstar of the UFC throughout the past decade, “Thug” Rose Namajunas will find herself in a main event once again, this time against an up-and-comer in Amanda Ribas.

Namajunas actually fought and lost in the first ever strawweight championship back in 2014, against Carla Esparza, who also beat her for the title again in 2022. However, Namajunas was the first to dethrone the hall-of-famer Joanna Jedrzejczyk, knocking her out in the first round and beating her by decision in the eventual rematch.

Namajunas also knocked out current champion Zhang Weili with a head kick in 2021, and then beat her in the eventual rematch by decision as well.

Inevitably, her time at strawweight has come to an end and Namajunas is testing the waters at flyweight, where she debuted last September and lost a decision to Manon Fiorot.

Now she’ll face Amanda Ribas, a very solid competitor with well-rounded skills, and I think we’ll see an entertaining fight for as long as it lasts.

I’ve been very high on Ribas at times through her short UFC career, and she smashed her way through the first several opponents within this promotion, which included popular names like Mackenzie Dern and Paige VanZant.

Ribas is a black belt in Judo and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, so her skills on the mat are quite strong, and they are arguably her best attributes. With that said, Judo is not the same as wrestling, and it involves tying up your opponent in the clinch, and tossing them to the canvas.

That less traditional style of wrestling is not as effective in MMA, and it doesn’t make me convinced that she’ll have an easy time of taking opponents down in the upper echelon of this division. Ribas does land 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes though, so she will project for mild wrestling upside.

As a striker, Ribas has been hit or miss, quite literally. She lands 4.92 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.33 per minute with a 63 percent defensive rate.

She is actually pretty decent as a muay-thai striker but the problem has come defensively. Not in the form of her defending strikes, but in the form of durability. She tends to get hit hard, and she has proven she cannot take damage at a high rate.

That led to her only pre-UFC loss where she was knocked out in round one by a mediocre opponent. Then in the UFC, she was badly hurt by Marina Rodriguez, and badly hurt by Maycee Barber. She was even dropped by Virna Jandiroba, a pure jiu-jitsu fighter with very limited striking skills.

While I think Ribas is a competent striker who can win rounds on the feet, her durability is a major concern to me and I have to assume she will get hurt occasionally in future fights.

I think durability is where Namajunas has the primary edge, as well as in championship experience, where Namajunas has gone the five-round distance (essentially) four times.

In 14 UFC bouts, Namajunas has never been knocked down, and her only KO loss came via a slam. She too defends strikes pretty well at 62 percent, and absorbs only 3.53 sig. strikes per minute.

My primary complaint about Namajunas has been that she doesn’t produce offense at a super high rate. She only lands 3.68 sig. strikes per minute, and she only lands 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes.

She’s won a couple of pretty questionable decisions in championship fights, and in her last six decisions, four of them have been splits.

Namajunas is probably more dexterous than Ribas as a striker and she should be the more effective kicker, which can mean she can fight in longer ranges. She also probably hits harder and can take damage better. But unless Namajunas does badly hurt Ribas, there’s no reason for me to believe Namajuans will easily win rounds.

Even as a grappler, there are concerns. Namajunas defends takedowns at 60 percent, and won a decision recently where she gave up five takedowns and looked bad off her back. That was at strawweight. Now at flyweight, I just don’t think Namajunas will fare the best on the mat, and 2-3 takedowns over five rounds for Ribas could make a huge difference.

Ribas defends takedowns herself at 87 percent, and she’s already survived the two best submission grapplers in the lower weight classes in Dern and Jandiroba. Anything is possible, but I can’t project Namajunas to land takedowns at a high rate, and even if she can get on top, I trust Ribas to survive.

Arguably, this fight projects to be far more competitive than the betting line indicates, and there isn’t a lot of separation between the two.

Leaning toward Namajunas for her historic durability and five-round experience is fine, and I suppose that will be why I side with Namajunas myself. I am honestly worried about Ribas getting hurt at some point, and she just doesn’t recover from damage well.

However, I fully expect Ribas to remain competitive in striking exchanges, and I think she’s arguably the better grappler overall. It would not be surprising to see rounds be competitive, and if this goes the distance, perhaps we have another split on the cards.

—

On DraftKings, Namajunas is priced up to 9.2k and I think her primary upside comes in the form of a knockout.

I noted it in the matchup analysis but Ribas has been hurt many times, and Namajunas is the type who could pounce on a situation and find the finish. Namajunas is -105 to win ITD which is shockingly the best line on this entire slate.

However, this potentially feels like a trap spot if Namajunas is going to project to be popular. In her two five-round decision wins, Namajunas has scored 101 and 79 fantasy points. Yes, she did not top 80 fantasy points in a five-rounder one time.

Had she had won either of her two recent three-round decisions, Namajunas would not have topped 60 DK points.

It’s because she’s not a high volume striker… and her CAREER HIGH in significant strikes is 105. Even 120 sig. strikes in a decision would only equate to 80 points.

Yeah, she has some grappling upside as well but Ribas is pretty decent defensively, so it’s hard to be certain about that. Obviously five takedowns from Namajunas would completely change the analysis, but she’s only exceeded two takedowns landed one time in her entire UFC career.

Targeting some Rose for her KO upside is totally fine. Targeting some Rose for her theoretical floor in a five-rounder is totally fine. Targeting her for safety in cash games is totally fine.

But I am not convinced that Namajunas easily breaks 100 points and at 9.2k, that could spell trouble. If she was going to be unowned, then it wouldn’t matter, but at a potentially high ownership, I am pretty nervous.

I think pivoting away to a lower owned fighter nearby makes a lot of sense in tournaments, and I will likely try to do that more often than the field this week.

Ribas at 7k isn’t a horrible target. There are just so many competitively lined fights that we have to expect several upsets, in which case, prioritizing Ribas feels a little bit uncomfortable. I’m actually thinking the field might overlook Ribas more than the typical main event dog because of this.

Ribas still rates out well for floor purposes, although she could get KOd, she’s more likely to last 3-5 rounds than anyone else in this range. I feel somewhat comfortable punting with Ribas in cash games and it is a real consideration for me.

The issue though is that there are so many other fighters with legitimate win equity in this range. So if you’re stacking in cash games, which is a fine strategy this week in a vacuum, you may be sweating other underdog wins more than usual. I don’t think it’s wrong to re-work your cash games to have multiple live dogs instead of using Ribas.

For tournaments, I consider Ribas a solid secondary target. There are definitely other options who have more finishing equity, and it would be fine to prioritize them. Ribas is only +450 ITD and I would not expect a finish.

But what does a decision win look like? If I had to guess, it could be something like 100 sig. strikes and 2-3 takedowns, which would score 80-90 points. Maybe that’s not optimal at 7k, but it’s not a bad score, and there’s still room for more upside.

If I thought Namajunas was clearly the better striker and wrestler, I wouldn’t be that excited here but in an extended matchup, I think Ribas can have success. I won’t force her in aggressively this week but I’m totally willing to mix her into my player pool given the 7k price tag and the five-round potential.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Namajunas by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa

Fight Odds: Williams -185, Tafa +158

Odds to Finish: -190

DraftKings Salaries: Williams 9.3k, Tafa 6.9k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Karl Williams is a Contender Series alum from the 2022 season where he’s since made good on his first couple UFC fights – he’s 9-1 as a pro. Justin Tafa had a rocky start to his UFC run but has since gone on a 3-fight win streak. He’ll be stepping in on three weeks’ notice to replace his injured brother Junior Tafa – he’s 4-3 in the UFC and 7-3 as a pro.

The striking component:

We haven’t seen a ton of Williams on the feet in his pro career due to how dominant he’s been with his wrestling.   In the bit we have to go on, he’s got a good 1-2, lead hook and some respectable leg kicks.    

He doesn’t seem lost on the feet and has shown some decent hand speed but he traditionally hasn’t thrown much. He will leave himself a bit open in his flurries and has been caught with a few counter shots though.   

In his debut against Brzeski, we only saw about four minutes standing where both guys landed some good shots, but Williams was actually able to drop him in the 2nd round.   

However, we got a much larger sample of Williams standing last time out against Sherman, where he actually did a lot better than I expected him to.

He fought smart by not standing in front of Sherman, and was able to use his jab effectively over the course of 15 minutes where he out landed Sherman to the head 53 to 26. Sherman’s obviously not a world beater but he’s a historically higher volume striker and Williams held him to 46 distance strikes – the leg kicks of Sherman did give him some issues though as the fight progressed.

That’s about all there is to say with him standing at this point.   

Tafa hails from Australia and comes from a kickboxing background.   

He’s still pretty green in his pro career but has shown some aggressive tendencies and definitely packs a punch, finishing all seven of his pro wins via KO.   He’s not the tallest or most “fit” heavyweight, but he’s got fast hands and has generally shown to be durable to date.  

The issue with Tafa is that he can be hook reliant and too overaggressive at times – we saw this get him in trouble against De Castro where he got flat lined coming in with a check hook in his debut.   

However, we did see some more composure from him in his fight against Felipe where it appears he came with a more processed gameplan. He definitely outperformed my expectations as someone who had a bet on Felipe – in fairness, he did go life or death at times in the fight though as well.    

But he then lost a kickboxing matchup to Jared Vanderaa 30-27 where he just got outworked, which is not the best of looks.   

Most recently, he’s strung together three straight early KO wins over fragile fighters in Hunsucker, Porter and Lane.  

Overall, he’s another gritty heavyweight with power who you can’t make small mistakes against, but his inability to show he can win extended striking fights to date is of concern.

How it plays out: I feel a bit better about Williams as a striker having the Sherman fight as a sample now, but I still favor Tafa on the feet. He’ll be the biggest hitter Williams has fought by a significant margin, who’s capable of landing upwards of 100 strikes in a fight. At the same time, Tafa still hasn’t won a striking based decision where Williams actually has, so I don’t think Tafa is a lock to win the striking by any means. I just feel we’re going to get some questions answered on Williams durability.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Williams comes from a wrestling background, and it shows through in his fights.   

He’ll relentlessly pursue TDs and just sticks to guys like glue.    

In certain spots, he’s focused on mat returns, and in other spots he’s been able to control guys on the mat for very large percentages of his fights.    

He has thrown GNP in certain fights, can advance positions and has taken backs before.  However, he hasn’t really shown to be much of a submission grappler, and has no pro or amateur wins via the method.

But the dude is a relentless grinder and that’s what he prioritizes.  

The most impressive W for him was his DWCS fight against Jimmy Lawson – a former wrestler out of Penn State (one of the best collegiate programs in the country).   

He took that fight on 10 days’ notice and rag dolled Lawson for nearly the entire fight. He lost position one time but was able to work up and get back on top – just an impressive performance in totality.    

In his debut, he went 8/13 on TDs against Brzeski and accrued 10 minutes of control time. However, outside of one TD in the 1st against Sherman, he got shut out the rest of the fight, going 1/10 which isn’t the best of looks – although Sherman is a decent TD defender historically.

Overall, he’s fought at light-heavyweight in the past but having the ability to wrestle at heavyweight can be a “cheat code” in a lot of ways because many guys in the division don’t have the skillset to deal with a grinding style. His lack of finishing ability is of concern though and he can get tired in extended fights.

Tafa’s footage on the ground is pretty limited but when he’s been there it hasn’t been great.   He’s gotten taken down with relative ease and had his guard passed back on the regionals by atrocious fighters – those fights were over five years ago now though.  

Conversely, he’s also been able to work into dominant positions in a couple fights but to me that’s once again more of a product of the strength of competition. 

Within the UFC, he hasn’t landed a TD, having only attempted a few – he also hasn’t been taken down but has only faced a total of two TDAs.   

Really, the only semi-relevant sequence was him defending a kimura against Hunsucker.  

So to say whether or not Tafa’s improved at all in this capacity since his regional days is impossible given such a small sample and no ground time in the UFC.

How it plays out: This is where Williams has a big advantage on paper and really all of the upside considering Tafa doesn’t wrestle. So we’re going to figure out if Tafa can stuff TDs or get back to his feet. My strong assumption is that he’s going to get taken down and struggle to work up. But once again, Williams getting largely shut out by Sherman last time out does give some cause for concern. Coupled with Williams not being a historic finisher to where even if he does grind Tafa early but doesn’t finish, it’s giving Tafa lifeblood to start the next round.

I’ve got to go with Williams here as it’s just the status quo for me to pick a guy at a heavyweight who can wrestle versus another guy who in all likelihood cannot. But as noted, there are definite ways for this to go wrong for Williams at the same time so I can’t say I have a supreme degree of confidence in him – I’d have more if he was a more potent finisher. But if Tafa is a complete fish and gassed out, that may just result in a Williams finish by proxy.

—

On DraftKings, Williams is an intriguing target due to his wrestling equity, but he feels far less safe than the typical fighter priced at 9.3k.

I just don’t feel comfortable in Williams as a fighter right now. I don’t have faith in his extended striking ability against good competition, nor do I have faith in his wrestling. His lack of finishing ability is a major concern.

Justin Tafa arguably is not good competition though, and he might just be bad on the ground. If that’s the case, Williams can land upwards of five takedowns, and potentially finish the fight by default.

Williams is +155 to win ITD which is fine, but we’ve already seen him score 130 points in a decision win in the UFC, so clearly his style has upside.

While I can’t say I’m super confident here, Williams has amongst the most wrestling equity on the slate, and I do think targeting grapplers is a smart move long term. It’s fine to prioritize someone else in this top end but Williams floor/ceiling combo IN A WIN rates out pretty well, and having mild-moderate exposure at this price tag makes sense in tournaments.

I’m guessing Williams will be the second-highest owned fighter in this top range but ownership is difficult to project this week, and there aren’t any guarantees outside of Namajunas getting a big percentage.

Tafa at 6.9k is one of a dozen live underdogs on this slate. He’s very boom or bust, and early knockout dependent. He is only +158 to win though, which is a crazy value for what’s typical at this price tag, and he’s +195 to win ITD, which is also a fantastic line.

It’s going to be very difficult to narrow down the player pool this week because there are so many live fighters, but Tafa is a totally fine GPP salary-saver at 6.9k. He has knockout upside, win equity, and finishing equity, and he probably won’t be super chalky. Although, looking at his box scores of 100+, he will draw some attention at this price tag.

I’m not going to have a ton of exposure here because I don’t love Tafa’s style and it’s probably a bad matchup against a wrestler, but Tafa has surpassed 100 points in all of his UFC wins and he likely contends for the optimal with a win again this week. That makes him a solid secondary target with upside.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Williams by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. AJ Dobson

Fight Odds: Shahbazyan -204, Dobson +173

Odds to Finish: -165

DraftKings Salaries: Shahbazyan 9.1k, Dobson 7.1k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Man, I feel like Edmen Shahbazyan’s career has been filled with ups and downs, and I don’t see that trend changing against AJ Dobson.

Edmen broke out on the scene in his early UFC career by quickly finishing four of his first five opponents in less than two and a half minutes. 

People were very quick to crown him the next champion or big time contender, and I was a bit surprised. Quick finishes tend to get overvalued by the betting market and I wanted to see what Edmen really looked like in extended fights. We eventually saw that happen, and Edmen failed the test miserably.

Edmen has had four fights go past round one… against Darren Stewart, Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, and Nassourdine Imavov. He hung on for dear life against Darren Stewart and won by split decision with a wrestling heavy game plan. However, he still slowed down big time in that fight and that win hasn’t even aged well, as Stewart isn’t even with the promotion anymore. 

Edmen competed fine against Brunson, Hermansson, and Imavov in round one, but eventually he slowed down, was beaten up on the feet a bit and badly beaten on the mat. It just showed me that Edmen is not a trustworthy fighter against solid competition if the fight gets extended. 

He recently beat Dalcha in a fight that went past a round, but there was no pace set in that fight at all. He most recently lost to Anthony Hernandez by getting gassed out. We know the drill with Edmen at this point. He is dangerous early but he can collapse later on in fights.

Edmen is mostly an early power striker and wrestler. He lands 3.46 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.13 in return. He defends strikes at 43 percent. I pretty much expect Edmen to compete as a striker early, especially with his power, but I don’t trust him in extended exchanges or extended fights at all as he slows down, and I just can’t project him to do well later in fights.

Edmen does come from a wrestling background and I definitely think he can wreck some weak grapplers on the mat. I do like his wrestling when he is fresh. He lands 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes but eight of his 11 takedowns all came against Darren Stewart. 

I think he can have success wrestling early against guys but I can’t expect him to carry on wrestling success later in fights, as he just hasn’t demonstrated the cardio to do it. He also tends to be taken down and is susceptible to ground-and-pound later in fights when he is tired. He only defends takedowns at 63 percent.

Edmen will be taking on AJ Dobson. Dobson obtained a UFC contract by finishing his opponent in round one on The Contender Series. He then fought Jacob Malkoun and got outgrappled badly. 

He then lost a clean striking based decision to Armen Petrosyan where he was outlanded 118 to 58 in significant strikes. He then won his most recent fight against Tafon Nchukwi where I was mildly impressed by his performance. He landed 67 significant strikes and two takedowns, and won a pretty clean decision.

Dobson is a great athlete, and I consider him powerful on the feet. He definitely can land knockouts at this level. My issue with Dobson is that he is just very raw. He is 7-2 professionally and although he has some amateur fights, he just isn’t very experienced.

I still do think Dobson can put people’s lights out. Furthermore, he actually seems like an okay grappler who can sort of land takedowns, ride position, and land GnP on the mat. Again though, a lot of his grappling is explosion / athleticism based and he just comes off as very raw to me.

The only guy who really outgrappled Dobson was Malkoun, and Dobson actually did a good job defending takedowns early on in that fight. Dobson defended 10 of 16 takedowns in that fight which is actually not bad against a good grappler like Malkoun.

I actually liked Dobson’s performance against Tafon as well. He showed some decent technical striking and fought well for 15 minutes.

I still wish Dobson would push more of a pace though. Even in a decent win against Tafon, he didn’t push a hard pace. I actually want to pick him here against Edmen because Dobson may actually have better cardio. However, I am not sure Dobson goes out there and easily gasses Edmen out, and takes advantage of it like others have. It is still possible though, and I probably favor Dobson in an extended fight.

I honestly may favor Dobson as both a striker and grappler in an extended fight. I don’t think Edmen or Dobson will easily outstrike or outgrapple the other in the early minutes, but I honestly think Dobson has more of a chance to dominate Edmen on the mat later in this fight. Edmen is really bad when he is actually grounded, and I do think Dobson getting on top of a tired Edmen late is possible.

I really think this will come down to the pace of Dobson though. If Dobson pushes a hard pace, I think he should win this fight. He also seems tough and durable so he likely survives early. If Dobson doesn’t push a pace, I just think this will be a close fight where I would still probably favor Dobson later on in the fight.

Perhaps I am overrating Dobson a bit, and I don’t think he is great or anything. However, I think this line is a bit off given Edmen’s inability to consistently win extended fights.

—

On DraftKings, this fight is arguably a priority though it isn’t rating out as well on paper.

The main reason to consider it is because of Shahbazyan’s style. His wins almost always come ITD, and early. And if he doesn’t secure them, he gasses out and gets finished.

Surprisingly, the odds for this matchup to end inside the distance are only -165. And I suppose that’s because Dobson has now gone to decision three consecutive times, both in wins and in losses.

It’s also weird because entering the UFC, Dobson also rated out as a first-round or bust type of fighter. The thing is, since then, we’ve seen him go the distance and he seems capable, whereas Shahbazyan has never done that with success.

Shahbazyan is priced up to 9.1k and I think he’s a high-upside fighter because that’s who he’s been historically. In wins, Shahbazyan has scored 98, 130, 101, 116 and 95 fantasy points. He’s now +105 to win ITD in this matchup.

I never have much confidence in boom or bust types, but I’m fine to target the upside of Shahbazyan. Especially if he doesn’t rate out as an obvious play to most, and coming off recent losses, he could be a sneaky target or pivot in this upper tier.

Dobson isn’t rating out well with a +375 ITD line, and his only UFC win scored him 81 points. At 7.1k, he may not be popular with so many other dogs to consider.

While I don’t love Dobson’s game, and consider him relatively green, I have to reiterate that Shahbazyan has shown major cardio issues in the past. When he loses, he’s getting beaten to a pulp, and most of Dobson’s wins pre-UFC were coming ITD.

It feels dumb to not consider Dobson as a big underdog on this slate. He could look like a clear favorite in hindsight due to cardio alone.

You don’t have to force him in because there are so many other options, but I think Dobson has pretty clear stylistic win equity and some finishing upside based on Shahbazyan’s career, and I am willing to target him myself.

Ribas is the safer option in this range and fighters like Tafa and Severino will probably be juicer based on their fight footage, but Dobson has just as much finishing upside in my opinion and I would like him even more if he gets overlooked.

I’m still spreading my exposure out in this range but Dobson is a quality underdog option, who might fall into the sneaky category, and I will probably aim to be above the field on him this weekend.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dobson by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)

Payton Talbott vs. Cameron Saaiman

Fight Odds: Talbott -138, Saaiman +120

Odds to Finish: +135

DraftKings Salaries: Talbott 8.3k, Saaiman 7.9k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

I actually like this matchup between Cameron Saaiman and Payton Talbott, two young, exciting prospects in the bantamweight division.

Cameron Saaiman is now 3-1 in the UFC after dropping a decision in his most recent fight to the very tough Christian Rodriguez.

Saaiman is a pretty well-rounded fighter for such a young kid. He is a decent striker. He lands 5.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.24 in return. He defends strikes at 55 percent. He has some decent fundamental boxing standing out of the southpaw stance. He is pretty composed in striking exchanges in the pocket and has some sneaky power as well. He can also mix in some low kicks too. He can also generally push a pace pretty well on the feet.

Saaiman can also grapple a little bit. He lands 1.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about three per fight. I consider him an okay wrestler. I actually like his BJJ. He is threatening with submissions and understands how to take the back and float on top.

Saaiman will be taking on Payton Talbott. Talbott booked his ticket to the UFC by defeating Reyes Cortes Jr. on the Contender Series. Talbott landed 145 significant strikes in that fight, attempted 282, and defended 16 of 17 takedowns.

Talbott then made his UFC debut in a favorable matchup against grappling dependent fighter Nick Aguirre. Despite being taken down early, Talbott weathered the storm and eventually tired Aguirre out, and finished him on the mat with a RNC.

You saw Talbott’s skillset in those fights. He is a striker. He is tall and long at 5’10” and will push a relentless pace on the feet. He walks his opponents down and really throws everything at them. He will mix in a lot of straight punches and stabbing kicks to the body. He is a good athlete and has power as well. I do think his defense could use some work, but his offense is good and his pace is tremendous.

Talbott is a bit green though, and you have seen it in some of his grappling exchanges. I have seen him taken down, body triangled, and just put in some overall bad positions. I do think good grapplers will have their way with him.

However, I actually don’t think Talbott is all that easy to grapple. He is a really good athlete and he is quite good at giving up his back and scrambling up to his feet. You need to have good mat returns or a good body triangle to keep him down. He at least understands the concept of not accepting bottom position, and I really think if people don’t have good mat returns, he will generally get up.

I do think Saaiman is a decent grappler and surely a better technical grappler than Talbott. I do think Saaiman could get a takedown, turn it into a back take and threaten Talbott. This is arguably the best grappler that Talbott has faced as well.

However, I haven’t seen Saaiman consistently and tenaciously go to a grappling and mat return game for 15 minutes. He only attempts three takedowns per 15 minutes. That honestly may not be enough to take advantage of his grappling here. Saaiman sometimes just likes to strike. So I tend to think Saaiman may not grapple enough here and we get a striking fight, where I favor Talbott.

On the feet, Talbott is just so much bigger, longer, and I like his output and athleticism more than Saaiman’s. Saaiman is tough though, and honestly probably the best striker Talbott has faced, so I think Saaiman could have some moments standing. However, I think Talbott will be the one landing harder and more often.

I wanted to go with Saaiman before I researched this fight because I thought he had a grappling advantage. I do think he has a grappling edge, but I just think he isn’t tenacious enough with his grappling to optimize his path to victory. So I think I have to go with Talbott as I have a feeling these guys will strike for extended periods where I think Talbott is just a bit more talented.

—

On DraftKings, we have two hot prospects matched up against one another and we’re used to both sides being popular. Matched together, I don’t feel as great about the chances for upside.

Talbott is priced at 8.3k and probably needs a finish to be optimal on this slate. Even a crazy 145 sig. strike performance may not yield Talbott 90 points in a decision, and I absolutely do not think he will land that many strikes against Saaiman.

Perhaps we will see more wrestling from Talbott, who has a wrestling background but doesn’t typically use it much. Saaiman is defending takedowns at a poor 45 percent, so projecting Talbott for 1-2 takedowns seems reasonable.

However, Saaiman is arguably the better submission grappler, so even with some takedown upside, it’s hard to say Talbott can translate it into a finish.

Talbott is +215 to win ITD here, which is mediocre. He’s talented enough and pushes a high enough pace that perhaps he can just break Saaiman at some point, but I don’t think it would come early.

This just doesn’t feel like an obvious situation for upside to me, and therefore I can’t really recommend much exposure. Outside of a mix-in for mid-range constructions, I’ll end up pretty light on Talbott this weekend and look to target him in better future matchups.

Saaiman at 7.9k arguably has more grappling upside, but will he actually use it? Can he even use it?

I think Saaiman can land a couple of takedowns, but it’s tough to project him for more than that, and I don’t think it would translate into an easy submission. His striking technique may be enough to neutralize Talbott, but landing tons of strikes or knocking him out seems unrealistic too.

Saaiman is only +450 to win ITD which is pretty poor.

I don’t mind the price tag but there are just so many dogs with win equity, and this isn’t an easy matchup for Saaiman. I doubt he’ll be super popular but I’d rather spend down for several other targets personally.

Ultimately, the fight is projected to go the distance at -165 and there might even be value on that line. Assuming we do get an extended fight, I’m hesitant to believe one side dominates, in which case, I don’t think aggressively targeting this fight on DK is the right call.

I will be excited to watch this fight but I won’t have too much DraftKings exposure to either side.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Talbott by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Billy Quarantillo vs. Youssef Zalal

Fight Odds: Quarantillo -119, Zalal +104

Odds to Finish: +185

DraftKings Salaries: Quarantillo 8.6k, Zalal 7.6k

Weight Class: 145

We’ll have an interesting clash of styles on Saturday between the ultra-aggressive Billy Quarantillo, and the low-volume neutralizer in Youssef Zalal, who will be starting his second stint in the UFC this weekend.

Quarantillo was supposed to face Gabriel Miranda, but Miranda pulled out and the UFC called up Zalal on two-weeks notice. Zalal had previously gone 3-3-1 in the promotion, losing three consecutive fights and barely securing a draw in his final matchup before the UFC cut him and sent him back to the regional scene.

In his time away, Zalal won three fights, all in the first round, and I suppose that’s good enough to give him a second opportunity.

The problem is that when he’s faced decent competition, Zalal has proven that he isn’t good enough to win rounds consistently, and he’s shown almost no finishing ability in any form. All seven of his UFC bouts have ended by decision, and he couldn’t even finish Peter Barrett or Austin Lingo, who are certainly bottom-tier opponents in the featherweight division.

Beating up some schmucks on the regionals doesn’t tell me anything as to how his success will translate against UFC competition, and my gut feeling is that Zalal is essentially the same guy that we’ve always known. Two years off is enough time to make some improvements, but I doubt we’ll see drastic ones.

With that said, Zalal is competent in all areas. He can kickbox a little bit and wrestle a little bit. He throws strikes at a super low pace though, averaging only 2.75 sig. strikes landed per minute.

He’s also averaged 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, and with a purple belt in jiu-jitsu, he has some submission upside against opponents who cannot defend themselves. Still, Zalal also defends takedowns at 60 percent and he’s been taken down by five of his seven UFC opponents, so I don’t really consider him a quality wrestler.

Zalal is best at slowing down the pace of fights, making them boring, and hoping to win close rounds. He’s been able to do that against a few opponents, but his success has primarily come from takedowns and top position.

He’s done well to absorb only 1.75 sig. strikes per minute but considering he’s unable to surpass the 3.0 mark himself, and doesn’t pack much power, I don’t consider Zalal much of a striking threat.

Now he’ll be taking on Billy Quarantillo who is a fan-favorite and always brings the action.

Quarantillo isn’t the most technical fighter in the world, and he tends to get beaten up early in fights, but if you can’t put him away, he will chase you down for the remainder of the fight.

Quarantillo currently lands 7.71 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.61 per minute with a 43 percent defensive rate. That’s a ton of offensive upside, but there’s also some concerns with his defense, or lack thereof.

Quarantillo has been tagged a number of times and was knocked out for the first time in the UFC by Edson Barboza in 2023. Barboza is a former title challenger though, and Zalal does not compare to the danger Barboza possesses.

As a grappler, it’s the same story. Quarantillo lands 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and he’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He can take down and submit weak competition, and he can also use his grappling to mix it up or wear down opponents.

However, he also defends takedowns at 63 percent and has been held down on the ground for long periods of time. He got taken down seven times by Gavin Tucker in a dominating loss in 2020.

Quarantillo isn’t a great athlete so I don’t expect that to change much, but he at least fires up offense from his back. He can use that to threaten, or scramble free, but it is possible he continues to give up control and he may lose rounds because of it.

The real upside to Quarantillo is his cardio. He doesn’t seem to ever get tired. Even when he’s hurt, he will usually recover quickly and march his opponents down. That, combined with his overall offensive pace makes him a threat to many and a super enjoyable fighter to watch.

My fear here is that Zalal will suck all of the joy out of the matchup and slow it down to a crawl. I don’t really see many other options for him.

Zalal has only been able to surpass 60 significant strikes one time in seven UFC bouts, and his career high is 63 sig. strikes. Quarantillo can match that pace in a single round.

So if these two go toe for toe, it’s tough for me to picture Zalal winning.

Zalal won’t do that though. He will evade, kick at distance, and disengage. Quarantillo may struggle to chase him down, and I’d expect more limited engagements here than in a typical Quarantillo fight.

Perhaps Zalal can land one shot and hurt Quarantillo, simply because he is hittable, but Zalal doesn’t rate out as a very powerful or dangerous striker and I am not factoring in that outcome heavily.

Conversely, Zalal seems tough, and he has decent cardio too. He is less likely to death gas than most opponents, but it’s possible that a short-notice bout could mean his cardio isn’t up to standard. If that’s the case, Quarantillo still may take over in the second half of the fight and win with pace and volume.

The other avenue for Zalal is through his wrestling, and I think it’s fair to project him to land 1-2 takedowns in 15 minutes. He wrestles at a moderate rate on average, and the pressure from Quarantillo may force him to shoot takedowns here. Quarantillo doesn’t defend takedowns super well.

So, I could see Zalal landing takedowns in multiple rounds, and perhaps winning rounds because of it. Quarantillo is a better submission grappler though so even if Zalal gets him down, I don’t expect him to do much with it. 

Plus, Zalal defends takedowns at a worse rate than Quarantillo, so projecting Quarantillo to land 1-2 takedowns is fair as well. And with those, he could take the back or threaten with a choke.

Overall, I have to favor Quarantillo here. He is very consistent with his offensive production, and he’s capable on the feet and on the mat. Zalal can potentially do enough to limit Quarantillo’s upside, but he’s historically not a fighter who produces much offense of his own and I expect the judges to reward what Quarantillo brings to the table.

—

On DraftKings, this is a very tricky spot because Quarantillo has shown an elite ceiling historically, but I don’t think his path to reaching that ceiling will come as easily against Zalal.

Quarantillo has scored 87, 125, 76 (in a loss), 141, 109, 85 and 131 in his UFC career. If the mid-80s is a worst case scenario in a win at 8.6k, you’re not going to complain too much.

Given the price tag, and his general popularity, I do think it’s possible that Quarantillo will be very popular. He’s probably one of the biggest names on this entire card and he’s priced very affordably.

However, his moneyline is trending in the wrong direction. It was -160 earlier in the week and he’s now -119 which makes him look extremely overpriced. I think I’m still going to project him to be moderately owned because of the name value and historics, and the lack of strength in this range nearby, but it’s also possible I’m wrong about that and the public will only care about his lack of win equity.

I’ve gone back and forth all week about Quarantillo because he still has built-in upside within his style. In theory you can target him in any matchup because he fights at such a high pace that when he wins, he can often break guys and smash through 100 points. It’s not wrong to target him this weekend.

But I STRONGLY prefer Quarantillo against opponents who can melt to pressure, which Zalal hasn’t typically done. Nor will Zalal embrace a war and try to match Quarantillo’s pace.

Zalal could also wrestle some and put Quarantillo on his back, which would limit Quarantillo’s floor and ceiling. Zalal has also never been knocked out or submitted in his pro career. These are just further concerns for me.

Quarantillo is +325 to win ITD which isn’t great either. In a decision, I’d be worried that the volume and/or grappling alone wouldn’t be enough, as his big wins have come from finishes.

All things considered, I will probably end up light on Quarantillo this week. There are just too many fights on this card for me to lock myself into a potentially questionable fantasy matchup, even though I do think he has a decent chance to pull off the win.

Zalal at 7.6k only appeals to me from the perspective that IF he’s going to win, he’ll either have to match Quarantillo’s pace, take him down, or knock him out. And now that he’s getting steamed on the betting line, +104 to win is an obvious value for the price tag.

I’m convinced the first outcome with pacing isn’t possible, but the wrestling outcome could be. Zalal has landed six takedowns in a fight before, granted, against someone much worse than Quarantillo. Still, if Zalal wins, I have to imagine it comes in part via wrestling, and he could have to wrestle lots to withstand the pressure over three rounds.

I could see that scoring well in a decision. He has put up 95 and 88 points in decision wins before, which is likely the ceiling here. He’s +400 to win ITD though and expecting a finish isn’t realistic.

Although I don’t think Zalal is going to win, I’ve acknowledged Quarantillo isn’t the best technical fighter in the world, and Zalal at least has a path on the ground. Playing him for that purpose and/or his moneyline value definitely makes sense at 7.6k.

But on a large slate with so many competitive fights, I’m still not in love with Zalal’s style or fantasy ceiling, and if he’s going to be popular given the moneyline value, my aim would be toward the underweight side.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Quarantillo by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Fernando Padilla vs. Luis Pajuelo

Fight Odds: Padilla -167, Pajuelo +144

Odds to Finish: -190

DraftKings Salaries: Padilla 8.7k, Pajuelo 7.5k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Luis Pajuelo hails from the South American regionals and made good on his Contender Series opportunity back in August by earning a contract – he’s 8-1 as a pro. Fernando Padilla bypassed the Contender Series and will be looking to rebound from a lackluster 2nd UFC outing loss to Kyle Nelson – he’s 1-1 in the UFC and 15-5 as a pro.

The striking component:

Pajuelo comes from a boxing background where he was a national champion in his native Peru. He’s on the bigger end of 145 as well, standing 5’10” with a 69” reach.

Despite his base boxing background and that being on display in his fights, he does have thai boxing elements too as a guy who likes to mix it up in the clinch with knees and elbows when he closes distance.

He’s shown technical range elements at times but also falls into the technical brawler category.

The guy’s just hell on wheels and a fighter who really weaponizes his pace, toughness and cardio to either get guys out early or overwhelm them over extended durations.

He’s shown significant power components as well with 7 of 8 pro wins coming via KO.

Defensively, he’s tightened things up a bit more in recent fights as there seems to be more process in keeping a higher guard and slipping/ripping with his combinations in tight.

But he can be a linear fighter at times and his overaggressive nature has left him exposed to where I’ve seen him get clipped on more than one occasion, despite fighting through it. Pajuelo has also had some trouble with not checking leg kicks in the past.

Overall, his strength of competition has been relatively low (needs to be noted) but he’s not going to be an easy guy to deal with if opponents don’t have the defensive footwork or counter abilities to keep him at bay or the power to put him out.

Padilla’s one of the bigger 145ers on the roster, standing 6’1” with a 76” reach. He works in a more kickboxing orientated style where he will target the body and legs with kicks, but excels primarily with his boxing.  

Given his longer frame, he’s shown a good jab that sets up his other shots to hooks, and body and clinch work.  

Only five of his 15 pro wins come via knockout, but they’ve been three of his last five wins, so it appears that his power is starting to translate more now. I still don’t think he’s a massive hitter per say and I consider him more of a timing and attrition type of guy.  

He landed flush on Erosa in his debut, putting him down, but the stoppage was early and Erosa’s never been known to have a good chin either. It was still a good W though, to come in and take out a UFC vet.  

His pacing has been a little all over the board as I’ve seen him fight in higher output affairs, but also take more tepid approaches where he picks and chooses his spots.

It was in his last fight against Nelson where he struggled to consistently track him down and got outlanded 80-65, and dropped the last two rounds. The fight was competitive though and I thought Nelson fought to a really good gameplan – nonetheless, still not a great look for Padilla to lose a 15-minute striking fight to Kyle Nelson.

Defensively, I think he’s gotten better in recent years but can overcommit to strikes at times and has been susceptible to low kicks in three different fights, which has slowed him down. But he’s proven to have the tough Mexican chin and has never been KO’d in his pro career.  

Overall, despite the previous lackluster performance, I like Padilla’s boxing as he’s technical and traditionally keeps a decent pace.

How it plays out: The striking should be a lot of fun here but it’s a bit difficult to analyze, primarily for the point that we haven’t seen Padilla face a guy with the same style as Pajuelo. Padilla’s going to have a 3” height and 7” reach advantage and I feel he’s the more technical guy of the two, and is respectable on the counter – all things that may spell issues for Pajuelo. But we’re in the small cage and I don’t know how Padilla is going to do in a dog fight as a guy who really excels when he’s the one that’s able to lead the dance and dictate exchanges. Despite Padilla showing some historic attritional components, I’d give more attrition upside to Pajuelo and feel he has the better cardio in this spot. Pretty high variance.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Pajuelo is a BJJ Blue Belt with no pro wins via submission. He’s not an active wrestler as I don’t think I’ve ever seen the guy shoot a conventional TD.

But he has been able to get on top in multiple fights with opponents losing positions, him stuffing initial entries or hurting guys. We most recently saw Pajuelo brutalize Ring on the ground with a knee to the body, ultimately leading to the stoppage of that fight.

Defensively, his 1st layer TDD isn’t very good but it has looked a tad better in recent fights. He hasn’t been the easiest guy to flatten either, despite the spotty TDD as he can use the cage to benefit.

But I’ve seen him get his back taken in two different fights and it’s a poor tendency that he still possesses, despite his lower-level opponents not being able to capitalize on the positions.

Overall, in what we have, I’d assume the ground is where Pajuelo will have his bigger struggles at the UFC level.

Padilla is a BJJ Brown Belt under the 10th Planet system.  

He’s not a proactive wrestler but eight of his 15 pro wins have come via submission. In more typical 10th Planet fashion, the majority of them are coming from the guard with triangles or armbars where he’ll look to utilize those longer limbs. He will be aggressive and has put multiple guys in tricky positions.

However, his defensive wrestling has generally been poor and an undoing for him in the past.  

His last pro loss came to former UFC fighter Spike Carlyle where he got wrestled in that fight. We also saw him drop his LFA 30 fight to Tailson Soares via wrestling. Darrick Minner also had early wrestling success, landing multiple TDs before getting guard subbed. 

With that being said though, all of those fights happened 4+ years ago when Padilla was still in his early 20s – there could be larger evolutions made in that department since but it’s hard to say because he hasn’t been shot on much as of late – he did stuff all 3 TDAs from Nelson though.   

But despite some of his defensive wrestling struggles, he’s shown good submission defense from dominant positions in multiple fights, having never been submitted in his pro career.  

Overall, based on what we have to go on right now, Padilla is beatable on the floor if he’s fighting a competent wrestler who can defend guard attacks and sweeps.   

How it plays out: Both of these guys just don’t wrestle so the only ways I’d project the fight getting to the ground (in a vacuum) is probably with knockdowns or slips off kicks. But wrestling aside, Padilla does serve as the better grappler on paper and the only guy in this equation that does have a quantifiable submission game. In all likelihood, these guys will bang it out though.

This is a pretty lackluster card in totality, but this one is up there as one of my favorite fights on the board this week. Despite having a decent understanding of both guys’ games, I’m still having trouble making heads or tails of how it’s actually going to go because there’s a sufficient argument either way. I lean more to the Padilla side though in the sense that he’s got more going for him on paper: size, pro experience, strength of competition, technicality and a perceived grappling edge. But like I said, this Pajuelo guy is a pitbull and going to be a handful for Padilla to deal with if he can’t get him out of there.

—

On DraftKings, I’m pretty excited about this fight and I think it could end up being a firefight.

That’s where Pajuelo thrives, and most of his finishes come when he’s swarming guys against the cage and giving them no room to breathe. However, I think his game is pretty weak, and I don’t see him having success at this level personally.

His entries leave himself too defensively vulnerable, so I feel pretty confident he’ll get KOd here soon unless his chin is amazing. His defensive wrestling also looks bad. He certainly seems capable of breaking guys but I think more than likely, he’ll be the one to get broken first.

Padilla is priced at 8.7k on this slate which is intriguing, because it’s a bit more expensive than I would like to pay. Considering Padilla doesn’t wrestle, he’ll very much be a boom or bust option. Striking volume will not cut it.

Coming off a boring loss where he scored 29 DK ponts, I don’t know if people are going to play Padilla this week. He’s +140 to win ITD which is one of the better lines on this slate, but since people haven’t seen this Pajuelo guy lose recently, he might be getting overvalued. His one loss in 2021 by decision was awful, by the way.

Essentially, I do think Padilla can win this fight by knockout. And it’s not because I have so much faith in Padilla as a knockout artist. It’s simply because I expect Pajuelo to fight aggressively and not care about defense. It’s going to force exchanges most likely, and I think Padilla has the tools, like a jab, to hurt him while he enters.

I am willing to play Padilla in tournaments personally and I’ll probably like him more than the field. BUT, this is a very boom or bust spot while we’re also lacking data on Pajuelo, so don’t consider this safe.

Pajuelo at 7.6k may end up being more popular because he’s been crushing guys recently, and he’s +225 to win ITD here, which is good. Theoretically, his style is going to lead to finishes if he wins at all.

At 7.6k, I have no problems taking some shots on Pajeulo. I personally think he isn’t good, but you don’t always have to be good to win. It’s possible that he does get hit while entering, and hit hard, but it won’t affect him, and he’ll just keep swarming Padilla. And then maybe it’s Padilla who breaks. That’s semi-realistic. 

If Pajuelo projects to be chalk I definitely won’t be matching the field and I’ll just lean into my overall analysis of the fight but in a vacuum, Pajeulo projects as a solid target. In a small cage, he’ll force action, which leads to upside on both sides. I’m picking against him but it’s hard to be super confident.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Padilla by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden

Fight Odds: Ogden -149, Holobaugh +129

Odds to Finish: +100

DraftKings Salaries: Ogden 8.5k, Holobaugh 7.7k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Now in his second stint in the UFC, Kurt Holobaugh will be looking for another finish this weekend against Trey Ogden, who was robbed of one in his last bout.

I feel bad for Trey Ogden that he didn’t get the win against Nikolas Motta last November. He was dominating the fight and the ref made a bad decision late that resulted in a no contest. Ogden was surely going to win a decision there, or even lock up the submission, but it was good to hear that the UFC paid him his win money anyway.

I still don’t know what to make of Ogden though. He was outstruck by Jordan freakin Leavitt down the stretch in his UFC debut, but somehow returned to outstrike Daniel Zellhuber en route to a decision win, which is just mind blowing to me. 

I don’t even understand how those two outcomes could happen back-to-back. Then of course Ogden fought Ignacio Bahamondes and got doubled up on strikes and looked awful. That Ogden performance against Zellhuber is just bizarre to me.

Ogden is a BJJ black belt and I generally consider him a grappler, but he will strike a bit as he did against Zellhuber and others.

On the feet, Ogden is okay. He has a decent jab and inside low kicks. However, I don’t think he is particularly great either. Yes, he outlanded Zellhuber at distance 71-52 but Zellhuber didn’t do much of anything. Ogden then looked awful against Bahamondes. As of now, Ogden lands 3.64 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.02 in return.

On the regionals, Ogden generally won his fights via takedowns and RNCs, or a top game submission. I consider him to be a decent wrestler and he has a pretty decent double leg. He has also fought at welterweight and looks pretty physical. 

He can generally hold top position which is good. I do think he can take down and outgrapple lower tier fighters at this level, which he did against Nikolas Motta. Still though, he went 1/4 on takedowns against Leavitt and 1/9 on takedowns against Zellhuber. He can land takedowns here and there, but I don’t think he will outgrapple decent opponents.

I don’t know how good of an offensive submission artist Ogden actually is now. Submitting regional fighters does not mean much to me. I guess he can submit low-level UFC fighters, but I would be surprised if he could do much more than that.

I also don’t like that Ogden has lost by submission three times. It just isn’t a good sign when a “BJJ Black Belt” is consistently getting submitted on the regionals. He lost by guillotine to Thomas Gifford (an awful ex-UFC fighter) TWICE. He was also submitted in another fight which I could not find.

I have also just seen Ogden taken down and put on his back a few times. He fought Cody Carrillo and they were trading positions, and it looked sloppy. So I guess I just see some holes in Ogden’s ground game which I don’t like.

Ogden will be taking on Kurt Holobaugh who just booked his return ticket to the UFC by defeating Austin Hubbard in the TUF finale. Holobaugh’s first UFC run was fun. He went 0-3 but he fought Raoni Barcelos, Shane Burgos, and Thiago Moises which is a very tough run of opponents. He also had success in all of those fights as well.

Holobaugh looked fantastic in his run through TUF and in the finale. Holobaugh is just a dog and a scrapper. He also has a ton of experience and none of his losses, even on the regionals, have aged poorly. He also has some good wins against recognizable UFC names.

Holobaugh is just so aggressive. On the feet, he will walk his opponents down and throw the kitchen sink at them. He will throw a ton of straight punches and apply the pressure all night. He will also mix in kicks to the body, and I do think he has some power as well. He walked down Hubbard and just overwhelmed him. I loved that performance.

Holobaugh has had problems with takedown defense before. He defends takedowns at 50 percent and can be taken down and controlled a bit. However, Holobaugh is a dangerous submission grappler and has 10 submission wins in his career. He is capable of threatening with submissions off his back, disrupting and bothering his opponents, and working up. I just really like the danger, pace, and aggression Holobaugh brings.

I think Holobaugh is going to give Ogden a ton of issues, and I am going to pick Holobaugh for the upset here. On the feet, I think Ogden can compete from a technical perspective, but I favor Holobaugh moderately as a striker because of the pace and aggression he brings. I also don’t think Ogden has the power to keep Holobaugh off of him. I have a feeling Holobaugh will walk Ogden down, land the bigger shots and land more often.

I do think Ogden can land takedowns here though. He is a decent takedown artist and top game player. However, I still think Holobaugh is a skilled submission grappler who can retain guard, threaten Ogden, and probably scramble up to his feet at times and push a pace. Maybe I am wrong and Ogden dominates with control, but I really am leaning against it.

I am going to go with Holobaugh here. I think he can minimize the grappling of Ogden enough to take over with his striking and pace. I also think he is a more dangerous fighter in general.

—

On DraftKings, it doesn’t take much to get me interested in Holobaugh, and I think I will be back on him to a degree in this next matchup against Ogden.

For full transparency, I’ve been on Holobaugh in basically every fight of his UFC career. He hasn’t won many times, so my record isn’t great.

However, he’s fought great competition and ultimately, I just love the pace and pressure he sets. He is an absolute force and will fight for your money. Granted, he has some defensive issues so it’s hard to ever be super confident, but I think he can produce enough offense to beat guys and he has some finishing ability as well.

I’m also not sold on Ogden who I don’t rate very highly but has strung together a couple of impressive performances.

Ogden at 8.5k probably won’t be owned much. I honestly think if he’d been rightfully credited with a win in his last matchup, he might be higher owned. But now his box score shows 54 points instead of what could have been 99 points. And he’s only +350 to win ITD in this matchup, which is poor.

My concern with fading Ogden is that in order to beat Holobaugh, you gotta either match his pace or control him, or finish him. Ogden probably lands takedowns in a win and he might need lots of control. If Ogden wins this, I could see him exceeding value at his price tag and at a low ownership.

It’s still hard for me to get excited about him because I don’t trust his skill set and he hasn’t beaten someone like Holobaugh before. He’s an interesting low-end contrarian option but I probably will avoid Ogden for the most part.

Holobaugh at 7.7k is an underdog who I typically want to target based on his style.

I am concerned that Ogden will want to limit exchanges and counter wrestle, which could hurt the floor and ceiling of Holobaugh. It won’t be easy for Holobaugh to turn this into a war.

But there’s also a chance that Ogden just is not capable of point fighting at range, and he’ll be sucked into a brawl which he cannot win. If that happens, Holobaugh could knock him out.

Holobaugh is actually +195 to win ITD which is good for 7.7k and coming off an impressive finish, he might get some love publicly.

I don’t rate Holobaugh highly for his floor and I think there are ways for him to bust given Ogden’s style, but I like the upside case as well and I’m willing to target him personally. He doesn’t have to be the utmost priority but Holobaugh is a solid target with some finishing upside on this slate.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holobaugh by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Ricardo Ramos vs. Julian Erosa

Fight Odds: Ramos -165, Erosa +142

Odds to Finish: -215

DraftKings Salaries: Ramos 8.9k, Erosa 7.3k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a fun scrap here between Julian Erosa and Ricardo Ramos, as Erosa always likes to bring the heat and offense, but he sometimes pays for it too.

Julian Erosa made me look REALLY dumb a couple of fights ago against Hakeem Dawodu. I played Dawodu and Erosa absolutely dominated him by hurting him and getting his back several times. It wasn’t something I was really expecting, but I won’t underestimate Erosa again.

Erosa lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.35 in return. He only defends strikes at 47 percent. So his fights are chaotic. He lands a lot and gets hit a lot which is a recipe for chaos. 

Erosa has a tremendous pace. He actually outlanded Charles Jourdain (who I consider a pretty decent striker) 103-85 in significant strikes before submitting him with a D’Arce choke. It was a pretty impressive performance to me. He also had a similar performance against Sean Woodson where he landed 103 significant strikes before obtaining a choke. The pace in both of those fights was absolutely insane.

My issue with Erosa’s striking is that his fights are chaotic and high-variance. He lands a ton of strikes and absorbs a lot of them as well. So random stuff can happen in his fights and either guy can get hurt at any point, and it is hard to predict who it will be. 

Erosa also doesn’t have a great chin either. He has been knocked out five times since 2018, so he is always in danger of losing by knockout, even if he is a better striker. He just got knocked out twice in a row by Alex Caceres and Fernando Padilla, which makes me even more nervous when picking his fights.

Erosa is still a capable striker though. He beat the guys that I mentioned above and he also got the better of Dawodu on the feet by outlanding him 59-57, and hurting him at one point.

Erosa is also a capable grappler. He lands 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes which is decent. He is really sneaky with his transitional chokes and can absolutely choke guys dead when they try to scramble back up to their feet. He choked out Jourdain and Woodson in similar ways with a D’Arce. He also showed good body triangle usage to control Dawodu. It was a good look for him.

Erosa defends takedowns at 61 percent which is okay. However, he does scramble up decently and I really only expect good wrestlers to take him down and hold him down for full rounds.

Look, I think the best way to describe Erosa is good but untrustworthy. He is good. He is well-rounded, has cardio, etc. However, he has a terrible chin and he is never a lock to win any fight ever.

Erosa will be taking on UFC veteran Ricardo Ramos. Last time we saw Ricardo Ramos fight, he was guillotine choked by Charles Jourdain which was a bit of a bad look.

Ramos is a decent fighter and pretty well-rounded though. He lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.78 in return. He defends strikes at 57 percent. 

He is fine on the feet and mixes in a variety of strikes. However, his numbers aren’t great and he has been knocked out a couple of times too. I am just a little concerned for him when he is striking. He has shown random spurts of power though, and landed a tremendous spinning backfist knockout in his most recent win against Danny Chavez.

Ramos is a decent grappler too. He lands 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about five takedowns per fight. He has a decent takedown game and actually landed eight against Bill Algeo. He can take the back and lock in RNCs as well, and I consider him a solid submission grappler.

Ramos is just a UFC capable fighter who is pretty well-rounded and has some finishing ability in all areas. I do think his random spurts of power and durability issues make his fights hard to predict though. He can randomly get finished and he can finish people himself.

That is why I am having trouble picking this fight. Both of these guys are dual finishing threats and have knockouts and submissions on their resume. They both have been finished often as well.

My guess is that will probably result in a finish in this matchup. I expect the fight to be chaotic as Erosa always brings the heat. When you have two guys with suspect durability but dangerous offensive weapons, I think projecting a finish is logical.

On the feet, I think I like Erosa’s overall volume more and I think if anyone gets overwhelmed it will probably be Ramos. Erosa is just relentless, man. However, I think Ramos is probably more likely to win by a random one-shot knockout as I think Ramos hits a bit harder from a strike per strike basis.

As far as the grappling goes, I think this is competitive. I honestly think Erosa is a little more dangerous with transitional submissions. I also like his cardio more.

This is a tough one. Either guy could get finished randomly. However, I think Erosa is a bit busier of a fighter with a more relentless pace. If he can just survive, I think he will really bother Ramos. So I am going to go with Erosa to get the win here.

—

On DraftKings, I wonder how interested the public will be in this one, because it rates out well with a -215 ITD line, but both fighters are inconsistent and coming off first-round losses.

Ramos has a legit submission grappling pedigree but watching him get submitted with a guillotine choke is just so frustrating, and it makes him hard to trust because grappling is typically his primary path of victory.

If this fight stays standing, Ramos is probably more likely to get the KO too based on durability, but Erosa is more likely to win rounds.

Look, Erosa has one of the worst chins of all-time. He’s been KOd in six of his last seven losses, and not all of those opponents are knockout artists. Any fighter facing Erosa has first-round KO equity, and therefore Ramos is in play at 8.9k.

However, that’s probably the only real way Ramos gets optimal on this slate. Volume won’t be enough and I don’t think this is the best matchup for him to grapple. He’s not a volume wrestler usually either.

But he’s +120 to win ITD and could theoretically hurt Erosa. Use him moderately if you want, or play him lightly if you want.

I’m honestly hesitant, and maybe it’s because I was betting on Erosa to get KOd last time out by Padilla. It worked and now this time I’m hesitant. It’s probably because Ramos’ knockout wins have come via spinning attacks and I don’t particularly trust him on the feet.

I’m not aiming to take a major stand with Ramos but he’ll be a secondary target with some narrative based finishing upside.

Erosa at 7.3k is viable and can legitimately win this fight, but it’s exhausting thinking about how many underdogs can realistically win on this slate.

I don’t think this is an amazing matchup for Erosa to hit a ceiling either. Ramos is hard to take down and submit. He won’t recklessly engage in striking exchanges. But he can sometimes just collapse.. and three of his past four losses have come in round one.

My gut feeling is that this fight actually extends and maybe Erosa can win that decision, but either fighter imploding is on the table too.

At 7.3k, Erosa is a decent option for his pure win equity. He’s +142 which would be a value on any other slate, and he’s also +225 to win ITD which is great.

Normally I’d say people might avoid him coming off back-to-back KO losses, but he’s one of the most experienced fighters in this range and he’ll probably get some attention for it.

The concern would be that he doesn’t grapple with success, and then wins by decision in a medium-paced striking decision. Would 85 points be enough at 7.3k on this slate, I’m honestly not sure. His last two decision wins have scored 97 and 112 though, so he has some upside built in his style.

I guess I just feel a little obligated to play Erosa at this price. I can’t say I’m convinced about his ceiling and it’s hard to predict whether he’ll get a finish or be executed for the third time in a row, but he can beat Ramos over the distance. His metrics are strong and he’s cheap enough to warrant some exposure.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Erosa by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Miles Johns vs. Cody Gibson

Fight Odds: Johns -142, Gibson +123

Odds to Finish: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Johns 8.2k, Gibson 8k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Miles Johns is a former LFA champion and Contender Series alum who’s had a decent run so far in the UFC. He’ll be stepping in on two weeks’ notice to replace Davey Grant – he’s 4-2-0-1 in the promotion and 13-2-0-1 as a pro. Cody Gibson is entering his 2nd UFC stint after dropping a competitive scrap in the finals on this past season of TUF 31 – he’s 1-4 in the UFC and 19-9 as a pro.

The striking component:

Johns is a shorter, more compact 135er, standing 5’7 with a 66” reach. He’s fought essentially the same way throughout his career as he likes to play on the outside and rope-a-dope guys.

He’s got a good jab, lead hook and leg kick but he’s not much of an extended combo striker and it’s largely single shot or two shot combos.     

But in playing the outside largely well, he still can and will go backwards for large chunks of his fights, which isn’t great optically, especially if he’s fighting better strikers.

Johns has been lower output as well, landing 3.51 sig. strikes per minute with a 48% accuracy, and he lands a little more than 4.0 distance strikes per minute.

He was higher output against ADS in that outing but ADS got his leg compromised early, making him a complete punching bag for the rest of the fight.  He was then lower volume against Bautista, Castaneda and Morales. 

His defensive numbers are solid though, only eating 2.75 sig. strikes per minute while defending at 68%, with a positive distance differential of +1.38/minute, so he has also been efficient on the feet.     

However, I think those might be a bit more optimistic than what his true defensive acumen is, given some of the grinding in his fights and more hesitant opponents. He did struggle with the range game of Bautista a bit and got smoked with a flying knee – he also ultimately succumbed to pressure against Castaneda despite a good early start.    

He also fought Adrian Yanez back in LFA, a title fight that went five rounds and he largely wore Yanez’s shots well, squeaking out a decision win. I thought he lost personally but it’s still a pretty good feather in his cap given the prospect Yanez is.

Overall, I’ve always hated Johns’ style, but I have to give him his due because he has made it largely work for him. He just has a way of lulling guys into these slower paced affairs and then when they get frustrated, he counters them coming in. Despite his lower volume nature, he’s outpaced his opponents in five of his six wins (including DWCS and the NC unofficial win over Argueta).

Gibson’s a wrestler by base but he’s a guy who is more than content to stand and mix it up on the feet. His pacing has been a bit all over the board as I’ve seen him be high volume in certain affairs but low volume in others.

His best work comes with hands when he can really start to work with his frame, as he’s a good sized 135er, standing 5’10” with a 71” reach. He’s got a particularly good long straight right and some pull counters. 

Gibson has shown power as well, finishing seven of his 19 pro wins via strikes – he also knocked down Gamburyan in one his UFC losses and caught Gutierrez with a flying knee more recently on TUF. 

Defensively, I think he’s decent when he wants to be. But my issue is that he can get lazy at times at distance, or just throw his defense out the window completely. Additionally, he’s had some tighter rounds on minutes.  

He’s never been KO’d in his pro career, so I’d have to classify him as a durable fighter, but he got knocked down by Andrade back in the day, and he got knocked down in his fight against Rivera prior to entering TUF. He also got his eye busted up against Katona last time out.

Overall, he’s a scrappy, serviceable guy on the feet but his defense isn’t very great for a guy of his size/length.

How it plays out: Gibson will be the biggest guy that Johns has fought, which makes this a bit interesting right off the top. But despite Gibson being the bigger guy, he needs to be pressuring in this fight. Johns is weird though where he can use opponents’ pressure against them at times. So it’s really effective pressure that needs to happen from Gibson because if you leave Johns to his outside game, he’ll just pick, prod and counter over the course of 15 minutes. Gibson’s going to take shots, but he needs to make Johns uncomfortable here. If Gibson can do that, I feel there’s real equity in him breaking Johns down.  

The wrestling/grappling component:

Johns comes from a wrestling background where he was a high school state champion in his native Kansas but I’m unsure of his BJJ credentials.     

However, he’s struggled in terms of securing takedowns in the UFC, only landing 1.03 TDs per 15 minutes at 21%, but he will grind against the cage. Despite his background, he’s not traditionally diving on legs for 15 minutes in every matchup.    

His TDD is solid at 85% but he’s actually gotten his back taken multiple times in both the Santiago and Smith fights – he’ll get sloppy at times.  Specifically in the Smith fight, he got stuck against the cage for quite a few minutes and Smith had his back for a good chunk of the first round.     

To his credit, even in being in bad spots, he’s shown good hand fighting abilities and has been able to avoid subs in those spots.  He also fought hands well against Argueta who got to his back and threatened some stuff early.

I say all the time though that if someone finds themselves in these bad spots, it catches up to them at some point. It ultimately did against Castaneda who despite not landing conventional TDs, was able to get on top of Johns at multiple points and finish him off in the 3rd round.   In three of the fights I just referenced, we saw Johns cardio dump as well.    

Overall, despite his base, I don’t really rate the offensive wrestling of Johns that much and he can struggle in grinding affairs.  

Gibson was a JUCO All-American wrestler back in the day and is also a BJJ Brown Belt. Despite his background though, he’s not the guy to be diving on the legs for 15 minutes.  

He landed a few TDs on Dodson but couldn’t flatten him – no shame as Dodson is incredibly difficult to take down and hold down, but he did get some cage grind minutes on him.

In his loss to Borg, he got rag-dolled in the back half of the fight and gassed out – Borg is a good wrestler though and a former top 15 guy in fairness.  

Then in a couple of his more recent wins he’s been able to lock up some top side submissions, but not against a very high brand of competition.  

However, he’s been submitted in four of his nine pro losses (three by guillotine), and wrestling has been a component in his losses even dating back to his original UFC run.

Overall, it’s still a bit difficult for me to assess Gibson on the ground because I don’t really rate the guys he’s having success against, and I can’t fault him for the guys who have outwrestled him.

How it plays out: Despite both coming from wrestling backgrounds, I don’t overtly rate the offensive prowess of either guy. But I’d give Johns more ground upside just based on the fact he’s more likely to attempt TDs and is much harder to take down in comparison to Gibson. But as noted, the ground has been a negative for Johns in more than one outing and he can give up bad grappling positions.

Full disclaimer, I’ve never been great at assessing Miles Johns fights. Primarily due to his anomalous style in the sense that he’s a low volume striker, isn’t an efficient wrestler, hasn’t shown much submission upside, goes backwards a lot, has poor optics and has shown suspect cardio – but he wins fights, being 13-2 as a pro. Johns coming in on two weeks’ notice is a massive red flag here though, considering his historic cardio issues on full camps. If Gibson pushes from the jump, there’s a good chance Johns is going to significantly slow down in the back half of this fight. I more so lean to that being the case where I can see this fight looking like Johns v Castaneda. I’ll take Gibson for the upset.

—

On DraftKings, it’s going to be difficult to prioritize either side of this mid-range matchup with Johns priced at 8.2k and Gibson priced at 8k.

Johns doesn’t interest me a whole lot, as he has never shown a high ceiling on DraftKings. His wins have consisted of 67, 55, 87, 81 and 64 fantasy points, and I doubt any of those would be optimal on this slate.

He does have wrestling equity in his style though, and he’s shown some knockout ability. However, Johns is only +225 to win ITD in this matchup, and Gibson has never been KOd in 28 pro fights.

Anything can happen in MMA but I don’t see this being an easy matchup for Johns to hit a wrestling ceiling, nor is it an easy matchup for him to win by KO. Therefore, it’s hard for me to recommend much of an investment.

My guess is that Johns won’t be very popular though, given his lack of a strong box score. He arguably falls into the contrarian category because of that. For salary-saving purposes, Johns is fine and it’s not impossible he could randomly secure a finish, but I do not plan on prioritizing him and will end up relatively light this week.

Gibson is my preferred target at 8k even though he’s risky as well.

The upside really comes in that Johns has been broken in the middle of the fight on multiple occasions. Now he’s coming in on two weeks’ notice, and fighting an opponent who is a few inches taller with a five-inch reach edge.

Gibson just lost a decision to Brad Katona where he landed 164 sig. strikes. While it’s unlikely he can match that pace against Johns, I don’t think Johns can come close to that type of output and if it becomes a war, that also may potentially tire him out.

So I think Gibson has some mid-round finishing upside, just being the bigger, stronger, higher output guy on a full camp. He’s only +365 to win ITD though, so he won’t rate out very well.

There are so many cheap fighters with win equity on this slate that my guess is Gibson won’t get much ownership either. He may too fall into the contrarian category, and of the two, he’s the fighter I’d rather take a chance on. But it’d still only be low-end exposure, as there are other targets on this slate who have more clear upside in wins.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gibson by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Jarno Errens vs. Steven Nguyen

Fight Odds: Nguyen -193, Errens +164

Odds to Finish: +115

DraftKings Salaries: Nguyen 9.4k, Errens 6.8k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

After dropping his first two UFC fights, Jarno Errens is in massive need of a win against the debuting Steven Nguyen.

Errens lost his UFC debut to William Gomis by getting outgrappled for three rounds. He then lost his second UFC fight to SeungWoo Choi by getting moderately outstruck and outgrappled a bit.

Errens is fighting out of the Netherlands, and I mostly consider him a striker. It is weird because Errens has a ton of submission wins on his record. However, almost all of them came against horrendous competition. In his fights versus competent fighters, he didn’t look like much of a submission threat to me and I don’t think his offensive wrestling is strong either.

Errens’ defensive wrestling just seems poor and it will get exposed at this level. Against Ozyildirim, he was taken down and controlled so often. Errens is also willing to play guard which gives his opponents easy control time. Errens will definitely be outgrappled at this level and we’ve already seen glimpses of that against Gomis and Choi as well. He also is just clinched up against the cage too easily for my liking.

As a striker, I think Errens is decent. He can mix in punches and kicks. I have seen him hurt some opponents and he knocked out Max Coga with a slick uppercut. He also hurt Choi in their fight as well. I still don’t think Errens is particularly good as a striker as he doesn’t put up a ton of volume and his defense is suspect. Knockouts and random finishes will probably be his main path to victory at this level. Perhaps he can win by a striking based decision as well.

Errens will be taking on UFC newcomer Steven Nguyen. Nguyen has actually had three fights on the Contender Series. He lost to Aalon Cruz in 2019 in a back and forth war where he was knocked out in round three. 

He then won his second Contender Series fight by a striking based decision, outlanding his opponent 126-89. He most recently knocked out AJ Cunningham in round two which booked his ticket to the UFC.

Nguyen is mostly interested in striking. He actually hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his contender series run and primarily looks to box. I consider him okay as a striker. He is a somewhat technical boxer and has decent straight punches. I also like that he consistently throws volume and can fight hard for 15 minutes.

I still don’t think Nguyen is great though and my guess is that he won’t have a great UFC career. He just isn’t a great athlete and he is hittable on the feet. He is also not very fast either. I think his best asset is that he is tough and willing to fight hard.

As I mentioned above, Nguyen doesn’t grapple much. He has a few submission wins on the regionals against bad competition, but I generally think he will look to strike at this level. His takedown defense seems adequate, and I have seen him scramble up well at times.

As far as this matchup goes, I think these guys are going to strike as Nguyen has pretty good takedown defense and doesn’t seem interested in wrestling.

On the feet, I do think this is a bit high-variance and it could be back and forth. Both guys are moderately dangerous and I also think they are hittable. So whoever just randomly hurts the other more could end up being the winner.

I do like the volume upside of Nguyen though. We know he will be aggressive for 15 minutes and he has already landed 92, 126, and 103 in his three Contender Series fights, which are very respectable totals. So if this fight gets extended, I think Nguyen has demonstrated that he can land consistent offense while Errens has not.

I still don’t think Nguyen is particularly talented or athletic though. His wins have come against poor competition too and he is a bit too hittable for my liking. So it is hard to be too confident here.

—

On DraftKings, this is a pretty rare circumstance where Nguyen is the highest priced favorite on the board at 9.4k, but is currently lined at less than -200 to win.

It should tell you the extent of the competitive matchups on this slate. Errens is the cheapest fighter on the entire slate and he’s +150 to win in some spots.

We certainly have the salary to spend up this high if we want to, but do we want to? I think most would rather play Namajunas for $200 cheaper, and I think there will be more attention on Williams and possibly Shahbazyan as well.

It’s quite possible that Nguyen gets overlooked in this range, making his UFC debut. He’s only +240 to win ITD which is mediocre. Maybe other sites will tout him aggressively but it just feels like this is a spot where the public won’t feel the need to play him, and he doesn’t rate out incredibly well.

Because of that, I would consider Nguyen a decent pivot in this top range. Especially on a slate where we could see other favorites in this range lose outright, thinking about pivot spots may be important.

The issue is just in the actual fight analysis, where Nguyen simply is not an obvious smash target. There’s no guarantee of wrestling, nor is there a guarantee of a finish. At 9.4k, he still needs to dominate in some regard to be competitive with the optimal, and that doesn’t feel extremely likely.

I will make this case for him though – he’s an experienced fighter, coming out of a good camp at Fortis MMA. It’s possible he could have more wrestling equity here than versus an average opponent, simply because Errens doesn’t defend well.

Also, Nguyen’s ability to land 100+ strikes makes him live to hurt Errens at some point. Is it a lock? No. But Errens is a low-level talent and I think Nguyen is more dangerous.

Nguyen will only be a secondary or contrarian target possibly at 9.4k, but I don’t think he’s a terrible option if he projects to be low owned and I still think there’s some hope for a ceiling performance.

Errens at 6.8k doesn’t interest me a whole lot, mostly because there are too many other live underdogs on this slate.

Like I wrote already, Errens is +150 to win in some spots, and he’s 6.8k. He’s a great value because of that and you could play him for the combination of his win equity and low public ownership.

However, I hate that he doesn’t wrestle, and his volume striking isn’t great either. He’s +315 to win ITD but it’s hard to trust in a finish, and there are just several other dogs I’d rather prioritize.

I’m not saying Errens can’t win or can’t be viewed as a contrarian target but he’s among my least favorite underdogs simply because I do not trust in his actual skill set. 

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nguyen by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Montserrat Rendon vs. Dariya Zhelezniakova

Fight Odds: Zhelezniakova -227, Rendon +190

Odds to Finish: +180

DraftKings Salaries: Zhelezniakova 8.8k, Rendon 7.4k

Weight Class: 135

I don’t have high hopes for either Montserrat Rendon or Dariya Zhelezniakova to be a lasting prospect in the women’s bantamweight division, but I’m mildly interested to see how Zhelezniakova looks in her UFC debut this weekend.

She’s 8-1 professionally at age 28, and she’s earned five wins by knockout and three wins by decision. She’s a boxer primarily, and I think that’s the only real way she is going to succeed at this level.

Zhelezniakova has pretty fast hands, and I consider her quite competent at range. She’s not immensely powerful, but her combination of speed and ability to land strikes in volume can definitely lead to damage, and I think she has some finishing ability because of that.

However, there are major concerns with Zhelezniakova on the ground. Her lone loss came in 2022 in a fight she was easily controlling, but she got taken down one time, and proceeded to get mounted and finished with ground-and-pound.

It’s not the first time that’s happened either. Zhelezniakova won a fight in 2020 in which she got taken down, put in the crucifix position and was beaten up, and it wouldn’t have been a bad stoppage if the ref had stepped in.

I’ve seen Zhelezniakova shoot for a couple of takedowns and I think she is training her grappling, so I am hopeful for improvements over the long term. She beat Liana Jojua on the regionals, who is an ex-UFC fighter and a strong grappler, and Zhelezniakova had to defend at times. She is capable of sprawling on takedowns here and there.

However, once she gets put on her back, that’s where I have major concerns. And that’s where I think she’s most vulnerable against Rendon this weekend.

Rendon made her UFC debut last September against Tamires Vidal and won by decision, but it wasn’t a spectacular performance, and I wasn’t very high on her coming into the promotion.

Rendon has the physical profile of someone who could win at the UFC level, but once you actually watch her throw strikes, any good feeling goes out the window.

She throws a basic 1-2 and stands too far out of range, so she’s constantly missing on her strikes. In her UFC debut, she only landed strikes at a 37% rate, meaning two of every three strikes she attempted were hitting air.

I don’t think she has a ton of power either, and it stems from poor technique. Her punches just don’t have pop on them, and they aren’t sharp. Still, spamming 1-2s is one way to get the judges attention and it’s possible she can win fights at the lowest levels with some volume. 

Rendon is also a brown belt in jiu-jitsu and that’s probably her biggest actual strength. She competes in BJJ and is competent as a sub grappler.

However, her wrestling looks really poor. I’ve seen some scattered takedown attempts on the regionals with mixed success against poor competition, but I really do not think she’ll have an easy time getting opponents down.

In her debut, she landed three takedowns on five attempts, but every successful takedown was from a caught kick, which is different from driving in on a double leg.

She’ll rush into the clinch and get the body lock, but she can’t lift her opponents or drag them down. Rendon seems like a decent athlete but she just doesn’t have explosive physical strength, unfortunately.

Despite my concerns with Rendon’s skills and style, it’s possible she has a major advantage if she gets into top position against Zhelezniakova. Like, it’s possible that Rendon needs one single takedown and that could be enough to finish the fight.

I don’t love her actual ability to get the takedown, nor am I super confident she will find them in this matchup, but I do think there’s fighting-ending upside there.

If we see this fight play out at range, I have to favor Zhelezniakova, and potentially by a large margin. She should have a considerable speed advantage and her strikes are more technical too.

I would either project her to comfortably outland Rendon over 15 minutes, or potentially hurt her along the way. Rendon has never won or lost a fight ITD though, so I think leaning toward an extended fight makes sense.

Overall, I will favor Zhelezniakova because she’s the superior striker and the fight starts standing, and I also don’t love Rendon’s ability to get the fight to the mat, nor has she shown any ability to finish fights.

Still, Zhelezniakova’s weakness on the mat is a major red flag to me and I will definitely be fading her at some point against a competent grappler. I just question whether this is the right time.

—

On DraftKings, Zhelezniakova is priced up to 8.8k which makes her a very tricky fighter to prioritize, but what’s even more tricky is that she’s now the biggest favorite on this entire slate at -227 to win.

I really don’t know what’s going to happen here with public ownership because Zhelezniakova doesn’t rate out extremely well. She’s only +210 to win ITD with little grappling equity, so she’s kind of a boom or bust option who’s dependent on a knockout. Without any history of Rendon getting KOd, I don’t see the public aggressively pursuing Zhelezniakova. 

But if you just scan this range, Zhelezniakova does appear “safer” than most everyone else, just based on her win equity. I think it’s possible she ends up getting steamed because of this, and I will likely be forced to project her for moderate ownership.

I do like Zhelezniakova’s volume though, and she’s been able to land often and land cleanly on the regionals. It wouldn’t surprise me if she ran up her significant strike count and put up a decent score, but the problem is even 120 sig. strikes would only equate to 80 points in a decision, which is still not enough.

Really, you need her to damage Rendon, and hope Rendon crumbles. I honestly think it’s possible but it’s very tough to project Zhelezniakova as an elite upside play regardless. At 8.8k, I think she’s an acceptable option but it will make me nervous if she projects to be chalky.

Rendon at 7.4k isn’t a terrible option based on narrative alone, but she won’t project well.

She’s only +800 to win ITD and she’s never won a fight ITD in her career. I do not trust her game. She’s also now the biggest dog on the entire slate.

However, she just landed three takedowns and scored 90 points in a decision win, which should tell you the upside grapplers have on DK. If Rendon wins this fight, I do think it comes in part from wrestling, and there is some domination upside if she can land takedowns with any consistency.

Considering a projected low ownership, grappling equity, and major red flags on Zhelezniakova, I actually don’t mind using a bit of Rendon. She may even project as a nice leverage option. But I would still only want a bit, because I feel like we’d be relying too much on what-ifs here and ultimately I don’t trust Rendon longterm.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zhelezniakova by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Igor Severino vs. Andre Lima

Fight Odds: Lima -180, Severino +155

Odds to Finish: -165

DraftKings Salaries: Lima 9k, Severino 7.2k

Weight Class: 125

A battle of debuting Brazilian prospects, neither Igor Severino (Da Silva) nor Andre Lima have ever lost in professional Mixed Martial Arts.

Severino is only 20 years old, and he’s 8-0 as a pro, earning four wins by knockout and four by submission. He comes from the Jungle Fight promotion in Brazil, which is OK, but I don’t think Severino has been fighting the best competition.

He did recently win on DWCS to earn his contract, knocking out his opponent in the second round. It was an impressive finish, as are most of the finishes in Severino’s career.

However, I find it difficult to analyze exactly who Severino is, and I think we need significantly more data.

First of all, he’s 20. Idk about you but I was pretty dumb at 20. Not to say Severino is dumb, but he is obviously not a finished product. He could have a decade more of experience before he even reaches his prime.

We should be expecting significant developments out of this guy each and every time he fights. It makes it difficult to analyze him in his current state, but unfortunately, history suggests that 20 year olds are not developed enough to win consistently at this level.

Within the bit of tape we have, Severino looks decent. He generally tries to grapple, and his wrestling is acceptable. I don’t have enough footage of his submission grappling to be confident, but it’s probably good enough to beat bad competition, but not good enough to beat good competition. He has a couple of guillotine choke wins which I hate, and they are usually red flags of a non-processed fighter.

Still, adequate wrestling with some level of a submission game, or willingness to land ground-and-pound can make you semi-dangerous. As will his striking, which has consisted of blitzing boxing, while potentially leaving himself defensively open.

At this point, my best guess is that Severino is a kill or be-killed type. If his cardio and durability are elite, he could rack up finishes at the UFC level. If those things aren’t great, he’ll probably get finished a lot.

Either way, I think his best chance to win is with big, opportunistic moments, and potentially there’s another path via some control on the ground.

Andre Lima is the more experienced fighter, and he’s 7-0 professionally at age 25, with five wins by KO and two by decision. He won by decision on DWCS to earn his contract.

Lima is an experienced striker, and supposedly has both Brazilian and South American championship titles as a kickboxer. Those don’t hold a ton of merit, but the fact that he’s competed 80-something times in kickboxing or muay thai do give me hope that he’s solid technically.

The footage definitely backs that up too. Lima is a somewhat patient, somewhat low-volume striker, and that’s clearly his best skill set. He can throw with a lot of power too, but he’s not aggressive enough to chase you down. He’ll pursue somewhat slowly with kicks until he’s in range to box.

I like that, though. Not from a highlight-reel standpoint but because it gives me more hope he can consistently win rounds at this level. I worry a little bit about volume, and other aspects of his game, but he can likely produce enough offense in striking exchanges to keep himself alive against a lot of the division.

The concerns more come on the ground, where Lima has shown occasional weakness.

He’s actually a BJJ black belt, but I know he trains in the gi a lot and I’m hesitant to buy into that status. His defensive wrestling has looked poor at times, but also improved in recent fights.

Some of his old tape suggests his wrestling is bad, and that makes me very nervous. He lost an amateur fight while giving up takedowns in 2020. But in his most recent fight on DWCS, he was sprawling pretty hard. His TDD may actually be ok.

When he’s on his back, though, it’s been a bit ugly. He was put in a deep arm-triangle choke in a fight in 2023. He survived, so maybe he just was super comfortable in that position, but his opponent got to it too easily and that’s not a great sign.

My guess is actually that he will be exposed on the mat at some point, and maybe soon. But his wrestling might be good enough to beat the bottom tier of the division.

As far as the matchup, I think I have to favor Lima. He’s just more experienced and well-rounded than Severino, and he’s also likely the more technical party.

Even if I favor Severino on the ground, I’m unsure his wrestling is good enough to get Lima down, and it’s possible Lima is the better submission grappler too. I mean, Lima might be able to take down Severino too..

On the feet, Severino probably needs to hurt Lima badly to win, which he could. Striking is such a high variance art that technique and experience sometimes doesn’t matter.

Lima is defensively sound though, and the better kicker. He will attack the legs and body of Severino, and that might slow him down badly. I think Lima dominating the latter half of the fight, or knocking Severino out is a pretty reasonable outcome.

I’m definitely not counting Severino out, but it’s a tough ask for a 20 year old and Lima just has more paths to victory on paper. But this is definitely a testing ground for both guys, and perhaps the pure pressure of Severnio will be enough to break through the technical wall of Lima.

On DraftKings, Lima is priced up to 9k which is annoying because it’s hard to justify his price tag.

Volume striking will definitely not get it done at this price tag. Perhaps there’s some wrestling equity, but I couldn’t project too much of it and there’s nothing to suggest it would lead to a submission win.

Realistically, Lima needs a KO in the first half of the fight to contend for the optimal. He is +130 to win ITD, which is decent, but it’s definitely not a guarantee.

There aren’t many guarantees on this slate though.

I think Lima is fine for tournaments, as a secondary option and potentially as a contrarian play. I’ve seen some love for Severino this week.

I just consider Lima a fairly boom or bust fighter, and there’s just a ton of risk to targeting him, especially for his debut and the lack of data on both sides. That can sometimes work to your favor though.

Lima ultimately does have knockout ability, and experience, and Severino has not been tested that much. Severino likes to fight aggressively and that could leave him open for an early knockout. It’s a possible outcome. I honestly don’t mind a bit of Lima exposure, especially if he’s going to be somewhat low owned.

Severino at 7.2k feels like a “at this price sure, why not” type of play.

The risk is that he loses. Oh well. That’s not much of a risk to take at this price for a guy who only wins ITD, and has never lost, and is only +155 to win. That’s way more win equity than what’s standard for this price range. And he’s also +275 to win ITD, which is great.

The more I think about it though, Severino might be popular. IDK if he’ll be chalk but there are a lot of reasons to like Severino on this slate. I have no problems with saving salary and mixing him into your lineups, and it seems like if he wins, he’ll have potential to break the slate.

I’m ultimately not picking him to win though, so I don’t know if I will go super heavy here myself, but this is just too cheap of a price tag for a +155 dog with finishing equity, so I feel obligated to get secondary shares at least.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lima by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

Mohammed Usman vs. Mick Parkin

Fight Odds: Parkin -140, Usman +122

Odds to Finish: +100

DraftKings Salaries: Parkin 8.4k, Usman 7.8k

Weight Class: HW

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

A battle of middle-class heavyweights, Mick Parkin will look to continue his undefeated streak against Mohammed Usman this weekend.

Unfortunately, Mohammed Usman did not inherit the fighting skills of his brother Kamaru Usman. He isn’t terrible, especially for a heavyweight, but he is clearly not as talented as his brother.

Usman fought in random regional promotions like PFL before making his way to TUF, where he won the season by defeating Zac Pauga via knockout in the second round.

He then outwrestled Junior Tafa and won by decision. Most recently, he actually had a somewhat decent performance against Jake Collier. He struck competitively with Collier and landed 85 significant strikes which kind of surprised me. He then landed a takedown in round three to cleanly win the decision.

Usman is kind of just a wrestle-boxer. He comes from a wrestling background, and I consider his wrestling okay. It isn’t great, but he is a decent heavyweight and has a decent understanding of positioning on the mat. 

He can definitely beat heavyweights with grappling holes in their game. Sometimes he doesn’t always wrestle though. I have seen him not wrestle at all in fights and then wrestle tenaciously in others. So it is a bit of a guessing game to determine what his game plan will be.

I also think Usman has okay cardio. I really was a bit surprised with his performance against Collier, and he really pulled away in the latter half of that fight. He did slow down against Tafa late though.

As a striker, Usman isn’t good and his volume has not typically been strong. However, he does have a little bit of power and is a decent athlete. He also outlanded Collier 83-80 at distance in his most recent fight, which was by far the best striking he has displayed in his career, so perhaps he has improved.

Usman is just a mediocre heavyweight. He has decent cardio at times and can kind of wrestle and strike. I don’t think he is particularly good at anything though.

Usman will be taking on Mick Parkin. Parkin is a UK based fighter who is 8-0 professionally. 

On the regionals, Parkin mostly fought terrible competition and would beat them on the mat by being a better grappler. I did see him put on his back a few times which is a bad sign, but he does seem to at least know how to get underhooks and work up.

Parkin then fought on the Contender Series and won by RNC. It was a pretty sloppy fight. Both guys chaotically exchanged in the pocket, but Parkin’s opponent tired out badly which gift wrapped Parkin a win.

Parkin then made his UFC debut against Jamal Pogues and won a clean decision. We actually saw Parkin straight up strike in that fight, which was nice because we didn’t have much data on him previously. Parkin showed okay boxing and cardio in that matchup and outlanded Pogues 82-34 at distance. Parkin didn’t even attempt a takedown either, which was a surprise as I generally labeled him as a grappler before that fight.

Then Parkin fought Caio Machado and won by landing three takedowns and controlling Machado for a couple of rounds. I actually thought Parkin’s striking looked bad in that fight and he was outlanded 68-34 at range. He also slowed down in round three which is concerning.

Parkin just seems like a bit of a freestyle fighter. He will box and look to grapple a bit, and has okay cardio for a heavyweight. I don’t think he is great anywhere though and I don’t love his athleticism. I also am unsure about his defensive grappling at this point.

This is another really tough fight to call. I think Usman has fought the better competition, but I am not sure either guy is much better than the other in any area.

On the feet, I would have favored Parkin until I saw Usman stay tough on the feet and compete against Collier. I think Parkin puts up a little more consistent volume, but Usman kept up a decent pace in his last fight. Parkin may be a little more technical, but Usman looks more athletic and maybe has a bit more power. I really think the striking could just be a bit of a sloppy mess.

As far as the grappling goes, given Usman’s wrestling credentials, I tend to think that he will defend Parkin’s takedowns. I didn’t think Parkin’s takedowns looked all that strong against Machado, especially later in the fight. I also tend to think Parkin can work up if he’s taken down by Usman. So there could just be neutralization on the ground and these guys may just strike.

However, I am more suspicious of the defensive wrestling of Parkin given he is a UK heavyweight with no background in wrestling, and hasn’t been tested on the mat much. I honestly think if someone has success on the mat, it will probably be Usman. Parkin may be a more skilled submission grappler though.

This is a tough one. I don’t think either guy is particularly outmatched in any area and there are a bit of unknowns with Parkin still. Usman has also looked very inconsistent in his UFC career. However, I am going to go with Usman as he has fought better competition and had a good performance against Collier. He also has a more proven background in wrestling.

—

On DraftKings, this fight is a total mess and not necessarily in a good way, and I’m not sure I can prioritize it on this slate.

Parkin is the favorite and priced at 8.4k, and he’ll clearly need a finish if he’s going to contend for the optimal. He’s won two decisions in the UFC, and scored 83 and 69 fantasy points. I want like 95 points from him in tournaments, or more.

Parkin is at +255 to win ITD, which is fine. All heavyweights have finishing equity, and Parkin was running through guys on the regionals. Usman has also looked vulnerable at times and he’s not a fighter I am excited about from a talent perspective.

Still, Usman might be good enough to neutralize Parkin and extend this fight. I’m worried it’s going to be slow-paced, and it will carry a super low floor on both sides.

Because it’s the first fight of the night and these are middle-tier heavyweights, it’s still a viable tournament matchup. It’s another mental health fight of the night where you can just mix in a bit of exposure to prevent yourself from tilting the rest of the evening.

But I really don’t think I can recommend a ton of exposure, which is scary. I hate these sweats early in slates. Parkin is a viable secondary option for pure finishing equity, but he’s very boom or bust and I don’t love his chances.

Usman at 7.8k doesn’t interest me much more than Parkin. He’s also +255 ITD but he’s won three times in the UFC and has not surpassed 85 points. There is such a high chance that cheap dogs win that I really need a smash score at this price, and I’m pretty fearful he doesn’t get it.

Like Parkin, Usman is technically in play for pure finishing equity, and some wrestling equity. If these guys are both gonna be low owned, it’s not wrong to use them. But I don’t feel great about Usman’s chances for a quick finish and I’d just rather prioritize faster paced matchups elsewhere on the slate.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Parkin by Decision (Confidence=Low)