UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley (6/14/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
Fight Odds: Buckley -281, Usman +232
Odds to Finish: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Buckley 9k, Usman 7.2k
Weight Class: 170
The former welterweight champion and one of the pound-for-pound best in the sport, Kamaru Usman will aim to climb the divisional ladder once more in a fun main event versus Joaquin Buckley.
Despite a Hall-of-Fame career that saw Usman win his first 15 fights in the promotion, which included six consecutive championships, Usman was dethroned by Leon Edwards in one of the greatest comebacks of all-time, as Edwards scored a head kick KO with just 56 seconds left in the fifth round.
Since then, Usman fell short In the trilogy matchup, as Edwards took home a majority decision at home in England that could have reasonably been scored a draw. Most recently, Usman lost another tough decision to Khamzat Chimaev, which came on short notice and could have reasonably been scored in his favor as well.
It makes for a tough analysis of Usman because two years ago, he was the P4P best fighter in the sport. He’s only 38 years old and I still believe carries the majority of skills that led him to so many victories inside the Octagon.
However, I do think he is on the decline. Most notably, Usman’s knees are bad, and I think that has limited his pressure oriented, wrestling heavy style.
Usman comes from a D2 national championship wrestling background, and he’s landed 2.82 takedowns per 15 minutes throughout his UFC career, while defending at 89 percent. He’s also landed 4+ takedowns in eight different matchups, topping out at 12 takedowns landed against RDA in 2018.
Additionally, Usman is a slick striker, landing 4.36 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.74 per minute, and defending strikes at 54 percent. He’s had a couple of wars with Colby Covington which saw him top out at 175 sig. strikes landed in 2019.
In total, Usman is purely an elite talent. He is a very strong offensive and defensive wrestler, and he’s a very skilled striker as well who consistently outlands opponents. He’s only been KOd once in a long career, and he’s lost very few rounds in totality.
My biggest gripe, honestly, is that he couldn’t get past Edwards in the trilogy fight. I’m not a big fan of Edwards and was pretty convinced pressure and wrestling would be an easy path to beating him. Usman played way too cautiously for my liking and although he still landed four takedowns, he blew the fight and let Edwards kick him at distance for 25 minutes to a dumb majority decision.
Since then, Edwards has been completely ragdolled by Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady, so I feel my original take was pretty accurate, and it makes me question Usman a bit more. Earlier in his career he would have taken the fight to Edwards, but a more cautious Usman who doesn’t press his wrestling skills is not the type I want to bet on.
This particular matchup against Joaquin Buckely is intriguing because Buckley has come on strong as of late, winning six fights in a row, including a recent TKO (doctor stoppage) victory against Colby Covington in 2024.
I liked Covington in the matchup for the same reasons I like Usman. Covington is a very well-rounded fighter who produces offense in all areas, and I don’t think Buckley is a strong defensive opponent. Buckley was able to hurt Colby early and damaged his eye, which eventually led to the stoppage, but Colby was coming on strong in the mid-rounds and got on top of Buckley multiple times.
Usman is a better fighter than Covington. He’s more physical, he’s a better pure wrestler and he’s a sharper striker. But the market is hot on Buckley after his recent win and Usman’s losses to Edwards and Chimaev, because Usman is sitting as a pretty wide dog in this spot.
I mostly view Buckley as a dangerous power striker, with some offensive wrestling in his game.
Unlike Usman, Buckley doesn’t really have a wrestling pedigree. He wrestled in high school, and he averages 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes.
He’s not a great control wrestler though, and his skills are only good enough to threaten the weaker wrestlers in the division. Taking down Stephen Thompson, on paper, is arguably the most wrestling success Buckley has ever had. And that’s against a career kickboxer who has no wrestling skills whatsoever.
Otherwise, Buckley has takedowns over Ruziboev, Morono, Fialho, and Alhassan in recent years.
Speaking of Alhassan, it’s incredibly tough for me to watch that fight and come away positively for Buckley. Alhassan can’t wrestle. He’s landed five career takedowns in 14 UFC fights, and three of them came against Buckley in the third round of their fight. Alhassan actually ended the fight in a mount position, reigning ground-and-pound down on Buckley.
Buckley did much better to fend off the takedowns of Duraev in the fight after, but still gave up two. Then he lost to Imavov by giving up another two takedowns, including giving up his back for several minutes. He gave up a takedown to Alex Morono.
Against Covington, I did think Buckley looked improved. He defended 7/8 takedowns and seemed reasonably physical. I also thought Covington looked kind of bad, and Covington still did get on top of Buckley twice, earning nearly four minutes of control in the first three rounds.
It just makes analyzing this fight difficult because a prime Usman easily disposes of Buckely in my opinion. Usman is a far better wrestler and over 25 minutes, he’d be able to land 4-6 takedowns, earn lots of top control and win rounds with ground-and-pound.
Even on the feet, I’m not certain Buckley is better. Buckley is definitely a more dangerous power striker, but he also gets hit more. Buckley lands 4.22 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.13 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate. He has been KOd three times in the UFC already, and is arguably less durable than Usman.
His form is clearly better though. His career trajectory is the defining angle of the matchup, as a 31-year-old, he should be entering his prime. I definitely think he can present challenges for Usman, pushing forward, throwing bombs, and defending takedowns. He’s a fair pick to win.
These are the spots I tend to get burned by because on paper, I still don’t view Buckley as a moderate favorite, and I expect the fight to be highly competitive while it lasts.
Usman is an elite champion with high-end championship experience. He’s still a far better wrestler and should have the clear ground advantages. He’s shown a much higher volume ceiling than Buckley historically, can compete with him on the feet technically, and he arguably is more durable as well.
If an older, slower Usman shows up who cannot wrestle, pressure or push a pace, well then Buckley will look like a solid favorite and probably bomb his way to a clear decision or TKO stoppage.
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On DraftKings, I’m going to have trouble avoiding Usman at 7.2k which is the cheapest we have seen him ever.
In five-round wins, Usman has scored 113, 104, 104, 156, 130, 168, 195, and 80. He also scored 98 points and 69 points in his two five-round losses.
Over five rounds here, he’s going to produce a fair amount of offense. If he wins, he will likely crush as it should come with several takedowns landed, lots of control, and plenty of strikes. He should easily contend with the optimal lineup in that case, and I can’t help but like Usman for his price tag.
Even in a loss, he could still land a few takedowns and 80-100 sig. strikes, and score 50+ DK points. I wouldn’t bet on it but he’d have some chance to be optimal in a loss.
Of course, the primary issue is that he’s a big dog sitting north of +200 to win. If that’s accurate, he’s not worth playing heavily at a semi-chalk because his win equity simply won’t be that high. And in losses, there’s also a decent shot he fails to wrestle and gets hurt, meaning his floor is still low.
I don’t know if I can help myself, personally. He’s only +270 to win ITD but Buckley has been KOd by much worse fighters like Alessio Di Chirico and Chris Curtis, and that’s one of the better underdog ITD lines on the slate still. I think Usman could finish him, though it’s probably not the most likely outcome. And the wrestling equity is still quite heavy in my opinion.
I think Usman is the best underdog on this slate and I’ll probably be high on him compared to the field. If you’re more concerned about his form (which is very reasonable), I’d still label Usman as a very solid secondary target at this price tag.
Buckley is priced up to 9k and is a fine target.
I still don’t think he’s an exceptional target though. This is most likely the toughest fight of his career and he’s most likely being overvalued a bit. Even against Covington in a doctor stoppage TKO, Buckley only scored 79 points. Had it gone to a decision, he was trending for 80 points.
He’s at such a clear wrestling disadvantage here that he has almost zero wrestling equity, and even one takedown landed would be overperforming expectation. He’s not going to land more than 120-140 sig. strikes, most likely, and his career high is still only 86 strikes. The high side of that would still likely not push Buckley much past 90 DK points.
Really, Buckley needs an early KO to clearly hit a ceiling. He will rate out well for it on paper with an +150 ITD line, and he’s very powerful. Usman has been hurt recently enough so I wouldn’t rule it out. It’s still not a phenomenal ITD line and indicates a good chance the fight extends.
Usman has also been knocked down once in 66 UFC rounds… so I just tend not to bet on those types of outcomes and the public tends to overrate them. Form is hard to quantify though.
I think Buckely has a reasonable floor in a win, and it could come with damage. He’s still reasonably cheap at 9k which makes him easier to fit into constructions. I don’t mind him in general with the five-round status.
I still have concerns about him exceeding 100 points without an early KO which is a super difficult task in my mind, and at chalk, I’m not sure I’d want to match the field. It feels like a decent spot to be a bit underweight and hope he either wins a decision or loses, where I could see a handful of other favorites on the slate surpassing his score in victories.
Not sure I want to take a huge stand here but this is a good test for Buckley, and for Usman. I won’t be shocked by any outcome but I lean toward the dog having value and being the superior DraftKings target at cost.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Usman by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick
Fight Odds: Namajunas -260, Maverick +209
Odds to Finish: +325
DraftKings Salaries: Namajunas 9.1k, Maverick 7.1k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a contender or pretender fight here as Miranda Maverick is going to find out if she is capable of defeating some of the top fighters in this division when she takes on Rose Namajunas this weekend.
Maverick is a decent fighter and decent striker. She has some pretty sharp hands. She lands 3.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.31 in return. She defends strikes at 60 percent. She outlanded Barber 43-26 at range which was a decent performance and she definitely showed some skills. I didn’t like the way she handled the pressure striking of Jasmine in her most recent loss though. She clearly looked uncomfortable when she wasn’t given space to operate. When she has space though, she can blitz in with decent combinations.
Maverick is an okay grappler. She lands 2.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and is fully capable of landing takedowns and floating in top position. She outwrestled Gillian Robertson rather easily which was a good performance by her.
Maverick’s defensive grappling is okay but is exploitable. She defends takedowns at 41 percent. She was outgrappled by Blanchfield and Jasmine, but Blanchfield and Jasmine are good wrestlers and they kind of ruined Maverick’s takedown metrics. Maverick actually shut down the wrestling attack of Robertson which shows she isn’t awful. I do think her defensive grappling could use improvement though. However, I generally think she can stifle below average to average grapplers.
Maverick is basically a relatively decent fighter in WMMA. She can strike a bit, she can wrestle a bit, and she is pretty physical and tough. She will probably never be a serious contender for a UFC title but I do think she will stick around in the middle class of the UFC for a while.
One thing I do want to point out is that Maverick’s wins have generally not been very good. She has eight UFC wins. She has a win vs. Jojua, Mazo, Young, Cachoeira, old Andrea Lee, and Horth. Those are really poor wins. Her decent wins are Robertson and Dione Barbosa, but even those two fighters are specialists and one dimensional. She hasn’t beaten a good talent who has well-rounded skills like Rose. I don’t think Maverick is a fraud because honestly she should have won the decision against Maycee Barber who is a solid, well-rounded fighter. I just wanted to point out that this would easily be the best win of Maverick’s career if she beats Rose.
Speaking of Rose, she was last seen in action losing a very close five round decision to Erin Blanchfield. If it was a three round fight, Rose would have won as she was clearly the superior fighter in the first couple of rounds. However, Rose slowed down in that fight and Blanchfield moreso won the fight on cardio than anything else.
Rose is still a solid fighter though and has some great wins on her resume. She is a skilled striker. She only lands 3.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.48 in return. However, she defends strikes at 63 percent which is good, and has sneaky power and snap on her strikes. So she tends to outperform her metrics.
She also has competed just fine with volume strikers before in Weili Zhang and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. I do think she can get out hustled though, and we have seen her moderately slow down later in fights. I think that is a moreso a five round fight thing. I actually think Rose is extremely difficult to beat in three round fights.
Rose is also a tricky grappler and has proven to be a quite effective offensive wrestler in recent years. She lands 1.46 takedowns per 15 minutes, and outgrappled Weili Zhang in their second fight which is aging well in hindsight. She has decent timing and opportune takedown ability. She also has some decent submissions and is a somewhat dangerous submission grappler. I honestly thought her wrestling looked great against Tracy Cortez where she landed five takedowns. She actually had more wrestling success against Cortez than Jasmine did.
Rose only defends takedowns at 61 percent, but I do think her scrambling ability and TDD has improved. I think her main issue is that she can get stuck on her back when she slows down a bit. Again, I still consider her takedown defense and defensive grappling adequate though.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is one of those fights where it is competitive, but Namajunas is probably a bit better everywhere.
On the feet, I actually think this is close which is something I wasn’t expecting going into tape. Both girls like to operate in space and both girls have speed to blitz in and land on their opponents. Rose fights a little longer and I do think Rose is probably a bit better and more effective at range. I also think Rose is just more proven as a striker. This is the best striker that Maverick has fought.
I really do think striking rounds will be competitive though. Maverick has generally struggled in striking moments where she is pressured and not given room. When Maverick fought Barber, she had room and actually looked good. I think Rose will give Maverick room which is a striking fight Maverick is more comfortable in. I still do lean Rose though.
I actually think Rose may be the better wrestler. We have seen Maverick get stuck on her back and Rose has really blended in wrestling nicely to her game. I think Rose’s pure takedowns are better than Maverick’s. Maverick more so relies on physicality and I really do not like her technique on her takedowns at all. If Maverick gets on top of Rose though I do think she could hold position. Maverick’s top game is decently heavy.
Overall, I think I mildly lean Rose as a wrestler and striker. I also think Rose is more proven with more high-level experience. I am expecting a competitive decision where Rose probably lands a few more eye-catching shots and lands a key takedown or two.
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On DraftKings, I don’t have much interest in Namajunas at 9.1k given the context of this slate.
Granted, she’s cheaper than a lot of big guns but I still think she’ll need to hit a ceiling to contend for the optimal. And the base outcomes here won’t get her there often.
This fight is -450 to go the distance and Namajunas is +385 to win ITD, which is poor. I really would be surprised if she won ITD as well. Maverick is very tough and Namajunas isn’t a big finisher, with the exception of a couple quick KOs back in the day.
She probably needs that to be optimal here, which I don’t trust. Otherwise, I’d be projecting her for something like 60-70 sig. strikes and two takedowns. That’d be a nice 70 point win on DK but obviously comes nowhere close.
And I don’t see many other paths. She probably will be low owned, but with name value and some big recent scores that came in five-round fights, I’m not certain about that either. I honestly lean toward fading her than targeting her as a contrarian option, even if she’s low owned.
If you want to be unique, Namajunas is probably an option. She has mild wrestling equity. I don’t think it’s enough though and I don’t really want to bet on a random KO.
Maverick at 7.1k is viable as a floor option.
She’ll also project for 60 strikes and 1-2 takedowns, and putting up 35 in a loss wouldn’t be a surprise. Nor 65-70 in a win. That’s just not a great score though, even for 7.1k, and her upside is really lacking with a +850 ITD line.
I’m less excited by the possibility of a loser being optimal this week, otherwise I’d say Maverick is viable. She probably outscores the fighters priced below her if they all lose, but Usman would have a good chance to outscore her.
I think Maverick can win the fight, but I favor Namajunas, and I don’t want to tie up a big investment here. She’s an OK floor based option for cheap, but I won’t be prioritizing Maverick and don’t expect a big score even if she pulls out the close decision.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Namajunas by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski
Fight Odds: Shahbazyan -181, Petroski +153
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Shahbazyan 8.8k, Petroski 7.4k
Weight Class: 185
We have a fun, but odd mirror match in some ways as Edmen Shahbazyan will take on Andre Petroski.
The reason I would consider this a mirror match of sorts is because both Shahbazyan and Petroski have had serious issues throughout their careers in winning early fights, but gassing out and/or losing down the stretch.
Shahbazyan has had the bigger issues of the two, and to this point of his career, I have to consider him extremely boom or bust. He’s fought 12 times in the UFC and won seven of those bouts, with only one of them coming past the second round, which was actually a split decision in his UFC debut back in 2017.
Otherwise, he’s known for bombing on guys early and hurting them. If he can find a finish, great. If not, he gasses out badly and gets finished, sometimes even in brutal comebacks.
Brunson, Imavov and Anthony Hernandez have all put brutal beatings on Shahbazyan late in fights, and most recently, Gerald Meerschaert was able to comeback to score a submission win after getting hurt by Shahbazyan early.
Shahbazyan did score a brutal KO victory in his last fight over Dylan Budka, which was largely expected. Budka isn’t very good and can’t push a pace though, so it wasn’t the type of matchup that would typically concern Shahbazyan.
Next up will be Andre Petroski who I’ve not been a fan of for most of his UFC career because of a similar style.
He comes from a wrestling background and tends to score early finishes, but in multiple situations, we’ve seen him gas out badly after the first round and lose.
His UFC run has been interesting though because he’s fought a lot of shit competition, and been able to outlast them even when he gets tired. He has late finishes over Micheal Gillmore and Hu Yaozong, for example. He was also able to hold on against Meerschaert and Turman for decision wins.
After the Meerschaert victory, Petroski lost by KO in back-to-back fights against Michel Pereira and Jacob Malkoun, with the Pereira loss coming in 1 minute and 6 seconds.
I feel like this was the turning point for Petroski, who I feel has dramatically slowed down in recent bouts. He’s picked up decision wins against Budka, Fremd and Rodolfo Vieira consecutively, and he really hasn’t pushed a pace in any of them.
This has allowed him to stay fresher for longer, and win late rounds, but his finishing instincts have gone out the window. He’s been very willing to land one takedown per round and lay on his opponent, without really passing guard or attempting submissions.
I did think his most recent win over Vieira was the most impressive, though it was close, Petroski stuffed a bunch of takedowns and edged out Vieira standing. At the same time, Vieira isn’t a very dangerous striker and Petroski has always been capable of defending takedowns.
My conclusion though, as it relates to this matchup, is that I have to favor Petroski to be fresher and have more success in an extended fight. We almost never see that from Shahbazyan and if anything, we see him gas out, and get brutalized to a finish loss whenever the fight extends. Petroski is usually sucking wind, but he can fight through it and he’s won three decisions in a row.
I still do favor Shahbazyan early in the fight as I think he’s a more dangerous boxer. He has real power in his hands and I think he’s the faster guy of the two. I would favor him to hurt Petroski early, while Petroski is less dangerous and throws less volume.
Shahbazyan can wrestle as well but I don’t see that being a path to victory for him here. He lands 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes but he will get tired doing so, and Petroski is now defending at 85 percent. I think Petroski is the better submission grappler outright as well.
We’ve seen Petroski get hurt badly and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen again, but if he survives the first round, he may just win this fight. He likely won’t push a pace, and he likely will also get tired which is why the fight as a whole is kind of weird. But Shahbazyan will get more tired, and I think Petroski’s chances of hurting Shahbazyan go up, as does his chances of having wrestling success.
Shahbazyan is defending takedowns at 65 percent, and Petroski averages 3.38 per 15 minutes. If Petroski gets on top late in the fight, I think a submission win is very, very live for him.
Honestly, picking Petroski outright feels very reasonable to me. He’s still a tough guy and will limit Shahbazyan’s wrestling. He’s far more proven down the stretch and I just don’t trust Shahbazyan at all. Every time I hope to see improvements from Shahbazyan and we could still get them, but I just don’t see a reason to have faith in that. I may actually side with the dog here.
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On DraftKings, this feels like a pretty strong fight to target for finishing equity, as it is lined -250 to end inside the distance.
There is some variance in the way Petroski fights and I could see an extended fight because of it, but Shahbazyan has seen one decision in his last 11 bouts, and he lost it, so the winner feels pretty safe to score some points.
If Shahbazyan wins, the most likely scenario is an early KO. He’s -140 to win ITD which is super strong for this price tag and backs up the thought that his win equity is tied to a finish. Therefore, Shahbazyan has a pretty strong chance to exceed value and contend for the optimal in a win.
I do consider him boom or bust and I’m honestly nervous to target him overall because of his style. He has KO equity here but I still don’t consider it an easy task, and he just won’t produce a ton of offense otherwise. He should be popular coming off a 103 point win, and will rate out as a pretty strong tournament target.
I likely won’t be taking major stands here. I do think there’s risk with Shahbazyan and this range as a whole, but investing in some finishing equity makes sense. He’s easy to fit into constructions and I may end up with moderate exposure by default.
Petroski is among my favorite dogs on the slate at 7.4k, and I don’t mind favoring him outright.
My primary concern with him has been pacing recently, and it’s affected his upside on DK. He’s only scored 53, 82 and 77 in his last three wins which kind of sucks, and I don’t think he’ll be fighting at a high pace here either.
However, he’s only 7.4k, so he doesn’t necessarily need 100 points to exceed value and contend for the optimal. Plus, his chances of wrestling and winning ITD here are better than in recent matchups arguably, due to Shahbazyan’s cardio dynamic. Petroski is only +400 to win ITD though so he won’t rate out well.
I think there are likely other underdogs who have higher pure ceilings, and are safer than Petroski. That will limit my exposure in some regard and obviously there’s no reason to feel confident here.
However, he’s shown me enough recently to make me think he is likely the favorite if the fight gets past one round, and with grappling and finishing equity in this particular matchup, I do like him for the price. I wouldn’t mind being overweight if the field is going to be cautious.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petroski by Arm-Triangle, RD 3 (Confidence=Low)
Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos
Fight Odds: Barcelos -188, Garbrandt +159
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Barcelos 8.5k, Garbrandt 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an aging UFC veteran fight here between Cody Garbrandt and Raoni Barcelos.
I have always been critical of Garbrandt even when he was UFC champion. I have honestly had some of my best success betting against Garbrandt when he has wrongly been the betting favorite on several occasions.
I mostly consider Garbrandt to be a boxer who can occasionally land a takedown or two. He has good power but has an awful chin.
Garbrandt lands 2.98 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.76 in return. He defends strikes at a decent 60 percent. Those are awful metrics, especially for a former champion, and I have always considered Garbrandt to be overrated.
Look, Garbrandt has good boxing skills, and he does have legitimate power. However, when you are knockout dependent and have to rely on winning striking rounds to win fights (because you don’t wrestle enough), you aren’t going to be too successful when your opponents consistently outland you.
I simply do not trust Garbrandt to win fights unless he gets knockdowns or knockouts. He has won three of his last eight fights. Two were knockout wins against Assuncao and Kelleher, and the other was a decision win against Trevin Jones where he landed 26 significant strikes in the entire fight!
I actually consider Garbrandt to be a good wrestler from a takedown perspective. He landed a couple of takedowns against Trevin Jones and I liked the timing of the shots. However, he couldn’t really hold Jones down and isn’t a talented submission grappler. I also don’t think he has the cardio to wrestle all that much in fights. Garbrandt does at least defend takedowns pretty well at 80 percent.
That Jones fight was concerning for Garbrandt, man. The first two rounds were rightfully Cody’s rounds but it was because Jones didn’t do anything. Jones attempted 33 strikes combined in rounds 1 and 2, and only attempted one takedown. It was exactly the fight that Garbrandt wanted. It was a fight where the pace was extremely low where Garbrandt’s chin and cardio couldn’t be tested.
In round 3, Jones actually got more aggressive and outlanded Garbrandt 17-5 in strikes, and also got a full minute of top position. Jones won the round easily and it was by far the most dominant round of the fight. It was really concerning for Garbrant. He looked tired and couldn’t even get up from bottom position against Jones. Overall, Garbrant attempted 40 total strikes and 3 takedowns in the ENTIRE fight which is just pathetic.
In Garbrandt’s most recent loss against Deiveson Figueiredo, he also looked bad. In round 1, he slowed the pace down and showed some speed, and was winning the striking exchanges but the pace wasn’t high. Figueiredo then wrestled hard and got dominant positions on the mat and submitted Garbrandt. I just don’t trust Garbrandt, and I really question his cardio nowadays. His bottom game also looks poor.
Garbrandt will be taking on UFC veteran Raoni Barcelos. I have generally respected Barcelos’ skill as a fighter. He is a pretty decent striker and has that classic aggressive Brazilian striking style. He lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.64 in return. He defends strikes at a solid 60 percent. He also has some moderate power and has landed three knockdowns in his last seven fights.
I also respect Barcelos as a grappler. He lands 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a capable submission grappler and submitted Chris Gutierrez a few years back as well as Christian Quinonez.
Barcelos also showed he can still grapple and wrestle in his most recent upset win against Payton Talbott. Barcelos was a monster underdog in that matchup and landed eight takedowns, obtained 9:43 of control and obtained a lot of dominant positions on the mat. He is capable of passing and taking the back. Barcelos also has stellar TDD at 85 percent.
The issue with Barcelos at this point is his career trajectory. He is 38 years old which isn’t ancient or anything, but it is on the older side for bantamweight. He also is not as good as he used to be. He looked declined against Quinonez even though he got the win.
Barcelos is still skillful though, and that is what has allowed him to beat relatively inexperienced fighters in Talbott and Quinonez. I also like that Barcelos has not been getting knocked out often either. He has declined but he has only been knocked out once by Umar Nurmagomedov. He survived Talbott and Kyler Phillips.
As far as this matchup goes, I just don’t trust Garbrandt to win unless his power shows up. He could knock Barcelos out. Garbrandt does have legitimate power and Barcelos is aging. Barcelos still doesn’t get knocked out often and Garbrandt doesn’t throw enough strikes to make me confident that Garbrandt can land that knockout often though. It could happen but I am leaning against it.
I think Barcelos should win because he just attempts more offense, and I honestly just trust his cardio more. On the feet, I think it will be a little sloppy with Garbrandt probably a little sharper early and more of a power threat early. However, I like Barcelos’ volume and cardio more.
I really think Barcelos can dominate this fight on the mat. The takedowns may be tough to obtain early as I still respect Garbrandt’s first layer takedown defense. However, Garbrandt’s cardio and bottom game are terrible and I think Barcelos will probably submit a tired Garbrandt if he gets him there. I just think Barcelos reliably pushes a pace everywhere. If he does that, he should take advantage of Garbrandt late. Garbrandt just doesn’t have the volume, offense, or cardio to keep up.
So I will go with Barcelos here. If Garbrandt wants to win, he needs to get this done early.
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On DraftKings, this is a tricky pacing fight but I do like the potential for the winner to exceed value.
Barcelos is my preferred target as I think he has tangible wrestling equity, and he’s coming off a huge win that scored 118 points as the cheapest fighter on the slate.
Barcelos isn’t a lock to wrestle, but he showed against Talbott he was willing to go to that path early. Against Garbrandt, who got dominated on the mat by Figueiredo, I would guess Barcelos knows that he can have success there too.
The tricky part is that I’m not sure Barcelos will produce a whole lot of offense otherwise. Garbrandt doesn’t absorb strikes at a high rate, and knocking Cody out isn’t a simple task. It is possible though. Even 1-2 takedowns doesn’t mean much without a finish.
So I do think Barcelos is mildly boom or bust, and doesn’t need to be prioritized in that sense. He could also lose.
But I do favor him here and I think he has multiple paths to score. He’s +195 to win ITD which is OK, plus the wrestling equity. He’s a quality target in my mind at 8.5k and I’d one be willing to come in near the field or a bit overweight based on the theoretical wrestling path.
Garbrandt at 7.7k is someone who I’ve been fading pretty successfully for years, after backing him originally during his championship era.
He’s just so low volume now, and he doesn’t wrestle. He’s completely dependent on a couple of damaging shots. Occasionally he gets them. Most often he does not.
I do think he can knock Barcleos out and I do think it would come early if at all, but it’s still a tough outcome. He’s +265 to win ITD which is solid for the price tag.
Assuming Garbrandt is relatively low owned and leverage against Barcelos, I like him fine as a secondary target with upside. I am guessing he loses though and won’t carry any real floor.
It’s not a spot I particularly want to be on, but I’d be a little nervous to fade it too. In large fields, I consider him a fine upside target for the price and ownership, but it’s a very thin window for him to hit and I tend to shy away from those spots longterm.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Barcelos by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Cody Brundage
Fight Odds: Abdul-Malik -790, Brundage +563
Odds to Finish: -1000
DraftKings Salaries: Abdul-Malik 9.6k, Brundage 6.6k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
How on earth is Cody Brundage still hanging onto his UFC roster spot? He has lost four of his last eight in one of the most lucky runs of all time. One of those non-losses was a no contest where Brundage quit and should have lost, and the other non-loss was a “win” against Jacob Malkoun. The guy should be 2-6 in his last eight. Hopefully he gets knocked out this weekend against Mansur Abdul-Malik.
Cody Brundage is an absolute embarrassment to me. Against Jacob Malkoun, Brundage was getting dominated and basically had zero chance to win. He was on the mat and a soft and accidental punch from Malkoun hit the back of Brundage’s head. The dumbest ref in the UFC, Mark Smith, stopped the fight which gave Brundage an opportunity to act hurt and earn a DQ win, which Brundage shamelessly took. Brundage was clearly not hurt and it was obvious to anyone watching that Brundage gamed the system.
Fast forward to Brundage’s recent fight against Al-Hassan. Brundage was getting beat up on the feet and dropped for a takedown and took a few elbows to the back of the head. Again, Brundage clearly was acting more hurt than he was in an attempt to win by DQ. Brundage chose not to continue. It was really Deja Vu. Luckily, the referee ruled it a no contest so Brundage wasn’t gift wrapped another win. He still avoided a loss though which is bullshit. So yea, I can’t stand this guy, but I will objectively break him down.
I will say that I think I hate Brundage less than I used to, mostly because his whole run has become entertaining in a way and kind of funny if you look at it from a different angle. He has kind of become a random villain in the MMA betting space so it has added some fun narrative.
Anyway, I mostly consider Brundage a “moments” fighter. His only four “real” wins in the UFC came by quick knockout three times, and once by guillotine which really seem like the main path to victories for him at this level.
Brundage comes from a wrestling background, but he isn’t very good as a wrestler offensively or defensively. He defends takedowns at 68 percent but his TDD isn’t great and his get-ups aren’t either. He will also just pull guillotines and end up on his back if his TDD is even holding up.
Brundage is also not a great striker. He lands 2.14 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.98 in return. He has some power but is just not very good.
I do respect the explosive movements of Brundage though. He did show that recently in his win vs Julian Marquez. He is semi dangerous with some strikes and can explode into some guillotine and slam takedown attempts. I generally think he needs to win by finish to win at this level though. He kind of strikes me as someone who has recently been going really hard for the first few minutes to land a knockout.
However, if he doesn’t land the knockout then he just quits. I truly believe he only had about one minute left in the tank against Marquez and would have lost had the ref not stepped in.
Brundage will be taking on Mansur Abdul-Malik. Abdul-Malik made his UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic a few months back. Abdul-Malik hurt Todorovic on the feet early. He then ground-and-pounded Todorovic who idiotically insisted on going for leg locks. On the Contender Series, Abdul-Malik won by second round ground-and-pound stoppage.
Most recently, Abdul-Malik knocked out Nick Klein with ground and pound in round two. Abdul-Malik actually got hurt badly by a spinning back fist early. It was really random though. I also thought he inexplicably didn’t throw punches right away which was weird. Eventually he got aggressive though.
Abdul-Malik is just a physical freak of nature and a great athlete. He is 27 years old and 8-0 professionally, finishing all of his opponents with most of those wins coming in round one.
Abdul-Malik comes from a wrestling background and was a state champion in Maryland which is an okay high school wrestling state. He wrestled for the University of Maryland but didn’t have a ton of success. I do think he looks like a decent wrestler though.
Abdul-Malik is just so physically strong, powerful, and athletic. He can wrestle a bit. When he is on top, he has some DEVASTATING ground and pound. He can just beat the crap out of guys from top position. His takedown defense also looks decent but I do want to see him tested more as a grappler in general.
Abdul-Malik is also a really powerful striker. He throws a lot of hooks and his hands are developing. He can knock people dead and he has some speed. He just has so much power. I just think Abdul-Malik’s physicality / power based game on the feet and on the mat can give a lot of people issues, and he is a good prospect.
I also liked seeing Abdul-Malik tested a bit on the Contender Series. He didn’t get really tired in round two, and finished his opponent at the end of round two. So I do not label Abdul-Malik as a finish or bust or early finisher type of fighter. Had I not seen that performance, I would have been skeptical of Abdul-Malik in extended fights but that was a great sign.
I think my main concern with Abdul-Malik is that he is still raw and developing. He is just kind of green. He is definitely not a finished product yet so he could potentially have some holes. His defensive striking looks a bit suspect and he was tagged a bit on the Contender Series. An experienced skilled striker could probably give him issues. I also saw him badly hurt on the regionals in one fight and against Klein. So he definitely isn’t invincible.
I do think Abdul-Malik is improving though. His offensive striking from 2021 was honestly not even very good, and it looks WAY better now. So I like seeing improvement, and I am actually interested in Abdul-Malik as a prospect and could see him as a ranked middleweight at some point.
As far as this matchup goes, I think Brundage is early finish or bust as he is in most fights.
Look, we have seen Abdul-Malik hurt and Brundage is an absolute weasel, and will surely try to sprint out there and finish this fight quickly. I could see a finish happening for Brundage as I do think he is dangerous early.
However, Abdul-Malik is honestly more dangerous early and throughout an extended fight. I also just think he is a way better athlete than Brundage. Abdul-Malik is also the better wrestler as well.
My guess is Brundage comes out hot and we get some chaotic exchanges. More often than not, I think Abdul-Malik survives and then just finishes Brundage, and wins on athleticism, power, and by being a better wrestler. So Abdul-Malik is the pick. I doubt Brundage survives this.
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On DraftKings, Abdul-Malik is pretty expensive at 9.6k but can definitely be viewed among the top overall tournament targets.
The fight as a whole is -1000 to end inside the distance, and it’s quite possible Abdul-Malik could get that done in round one. I know Wellmaker above has a very strong chance to win by early KO as well, but I lean toward Abdul-Malik slightly as having the better shot for a quick finish.
Plus, Abdul-Malik carries wrestling equity and can also land a ton of strikes on the ground. So he definitely carries some of the best upside on the slate, and I could see him replicating his 115-point performance from his UFC debut.
However, I also think there’s a bit more risk with Abdul-Malik than Wellmaker. Brundage will still fire his shots early and we just saw Abdul-Malik get hurt pretty badly by Nick Klein. So I wouldn’t be shocked if Brundage hurt him.
What’s more scary to me is that Abdul-Malik didn’t really try to fight for the first round of that matchup. He barely threw anything.. and officially attempted eight strikes in round one. He did get hurt which was part of it but after he had already just stood there for a few minutes.
In round two, when he pushed forward, he easily finished Klein. But it resulted in a poor DK score of 88 points.
The good news is that he’s -550 to win ITD which is elite, and +105 to win in RD 1 which is comparable to Wellmaker’s odds, depending on where you look (-120, +105, +130 on different books). He’s also cheaper than Wellmaker by $200 and therefore easier to afford.
Given the price discrepancy, I would probably lean toward Abdul-Malik outright. I just like the upside in a possible chaotic early fight, though there’d be some risk, he should eventually win ITD. However, leaning the opposite direction is valid as well if you can afford it.
Ultimately, Abdul-Malik is an elite tournament target given his finishing metrics, and I expect a very strong score from him in a win. There is some variance in this kind of fight though.
Brundage at 6.6k is a fine punt target for knockout upside.
He typically scores very well in wins, and I think his path is an early finish here as well. He’s a big dog though and +650 to win ITD.
Clearly I’m not going to prioritize Brundage in any fashion. I would consider him a comparable but better target than Moutinho though, so in large-fields, he’s viable. He’ll carry leverage against Abdul-Malik as well.
It’s probably worth a small investment in a fight that’s -1000 to end inside the distance, given the variance in striking exchanges generally. Brundage only rates out as a low-end leverage punt though.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Abdul-Malik by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Oumar Sy
Fight Odds: Sy -697, Menifield +510
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Sy 9.5k, Menifield 6.7k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Alonzo Menifield’s a Contender Series alum from one of the original seasons who’s had a really streaky run since entering the promotion back in 2019 – he’s 9-5-1 in the UFC and 16-5-1 as a pro. Oumar Sy’s a newer addition to the UFC’s roster who had a successful first year in the promotion – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 11-0 as a pro.
The striking component:
Menifield’s a bricked-up dude at 205 who’s an explosive striker with heavier power components, having finished 11 of his 16 pro wins via KO/TKO in either the 1st or 2nd rounds.
However, he hasn’t always been the most processed stand-up fighter dating more to the earlier part of his UFC run. He largely just came in winging big shots and really never set up anything he threw. He also hadn’t shown much diversity in his striking attacks with feints or kicks, but it largely worked for him.
He’s struggled when he hasn’t been able to land the big KO shot because historically, he hasn’t had any other tools to win fights.
However, we did see him fight a very smart/composed game plan against Ed Herman while also being high output (landed 90+ significant strikes and showed some kicking components). Say what you want about Ed Herman, but it was still nice to see him show that he can win a fight without just torching someone at that time.
But he then parlayed that into a low volume affair with Knight where I thought he edged the fight personally but just didn’t do a whole lot at the same time. He looked solid in clocking Cirkunov early. Had Crute on the ropes early in the 1st matchup but also got the better of the exchanges in the rematch.
Defensively, he’s not great as he can fight fire with fire at times, but statistically he’s not terrible by divisional standards, eating 4.8 DApM at 57%. He more recently was outlanded by Jacoby 93 to 68 but bigger moments in the latter rounds allowed him to edge out that fight.
Despite touting some more recent improved technical components I’ve seen from Menifield, he went out guns blazing/old school Menifield and got nuked in 15 seconds by Ulberg, and got KO’d by Murzakanov right after – granted two higher level strikers.
Most recently, he had a slugfest that he won against Walker – greasy fight but I do think the decision was correct in giving Menifield the 1st and 3rd rounds – he also outlanded Walker to the head 64-37 which played a factor.
Overall, Menifield will have continued success over the bottom to mid-tiers of the division but he struggles with better strikers minute to minute if he’s not able to realize KOs or those bigger moments.
Sy’s a floor player by base who’s realized a lot of ground success, so we didn’t have much to go on prior to his debut
Regionally, I don’t want to say he seemed uncomfortable because that’s not the right way to describe it. He more so just stayed on the outside, moved, and fired a few kicks to try to keep range and his punching was largely used for the sole purpose of closing to distance to set up his TDs.
But he was forced to strike more in his sophomore outing against Jung where his performance honestly impressed me. I thought he showed a lot of composure, was mixing his attacks/targets up well and also kept up a solid work rate where he outlanded Jung 90-29 in total and 78-25 at distance. Hindsight 20/20, Jung was a declining fighter but if you told me pre-flop that there was going to be 12 minutes of distance time in that fight and that’s how it was going to go, I probably would have laughed. It’s still only one fight so I also don’t want to overdo it, but he’s clearly far more capable on the feet than what my original projection was.
His general style has kept him pretty safe throughout his career so far, but he got cracked badly in his 4th pro fight against Skvor. To his credit he fought through it but was also eating bigger knees coming in as well.
Overall, time will tell where his striking level is truly at, but he’s shown that he’s not a grappling dependent fighter which is good to see.
How it plays out: Despite Menifield being a stocky guy at the weight, he’ll give up 5” in height and 8” in reach here against Sy. As noted, it was good to have the Jung fight in Sy’s sample to say that he can strike effectively for an extended period of time. But also once again, it’s one fight and it’s still not enough for me to classify him as a “proven” distance based commodity. Menifield does land over 5 DLpM and is an accurate guy at 51%. We also know Menifield is a proven hitter at the UFC level where Sy’s durability is largely a question mark to me at this point. So even if it turns out that Sy is operating in a similar fashion to his last fight where he’s flowing, moving well and realizing success, will he be able to eat clean bombs from Menifield? Maybe, but maybe not.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Menifield hasn’t been the biggest historic wrestler, but he will go to the cage push as we saw in the Clark and Knight fights – both in which he lost despite accruing significant control time.
However, we saw him pursue a TD against Cherant, get it, pass and submit him – very similar story in his fight against Morozov landing an early TD and pounding him out. He did land a TD on Herman too in that outing, so it’s nice to see him mix in some wrestling components to his game and show some floor skills.
Menifield also picked up a nice submission over Crute in the rematch but Crute kind of gave that to him. A late TD with some additional cage grind helped him solidify the Jacoby victory as well.
His wrestling metrics still aren’t good in totality though, landing 0.6 TDs per 15 minutes at 35%.
Defensively, he’s largely been solid in terms of his TDD, stuffing at 80% as he does a particularly good job of digging underhooks. Both Clark and Knight landed TDs on him, but he was able to work up quickly on both occasions – Knight did take his back though which wasn’t great.
We saw him stuff all four of Cirkunov’s early TDAs who’s shown good wrestling components throughout his UFC career. But it was against Crute in the 1st fight where he did struggle with the attritional grind, getting taken down six times. To his credit, his get-ups specifically early on in the fight looked pretty good. He stuffed a lot of deep shots and was able to avoid subs and work out of dominant positions more than once, but a late fence grab did bite him in the ass, ultimately forcing a draw.
He fared better there in the 2nd fight and actually submitted Crute with a guillotine.
Most recently, he stuffed 8/9 shots from Walker but did get stuck against the fence for 5.5 minutes.
Overall, it’s still hard to assess Menifield’s ground pedigree but it does appear to be something he’s improved upon in the last 3-4 years. His TDD is solid in a vacuum but I still have my concerns if he’s flattened against more capable ground fighters though.
I’m unsure of Sy’s official background or ground credentials but the floor is where his bread is buttered.
He’s a pretty long guy for the weight class, but he changes levels well and excels specifically to the legs in securing his TDs with doubles or chains wrestle rides to the back.
The issue I have seen with Sy is that he can shoot from too far out at times – I think that’s partially due to the fact that he doesn’t always set them up well with his hands. But his general success rate when he’s able to get in has traditionally been high.
I’d actually say that his general grappling is better than his wrestling though.
He clearly meshes the two together but has a good understanding of weight distribution, controlling limbs and making his opponents go where he wants them to. He’s also a guy that will use body triangles religiously which is something that I love to see.
So, if opponents give the back, he’ll take it. If not, he’s fine to continue landing damage from top positions to force additional mistakes.
As a result, he’s finished eight of 11 pro wins on the floor either via TKO or SUB.
With all that being said, I have seen him lose positions on more than one occasion if he gets too overzealous, so I also don’t think his top control is elite by any means. However, he’s not one to hang out on bottom to where he’ll force scrambles, get to a hip to reshoot or sweep his opponents.
Overall, Sy’s style is going to be difficult for many opponents to deal with generally, but especially at a division like 205 which is not known for its grappling prowess.
How it plays out: The floor upside should largely go to Sy here just based on historics and general pursuit. At the same time, he struggled to get much going on Jung last time out who repped a similar TDD mark as Menifield does – I’d also generally consider Menifield a more proven TD defender than Jung. So, despite Sy’s history, I don’t think he’s going to have an easy time taking Menifield down, especially early in the fight when both are dry. But I do think Sy has shown respectable cardio thus far in his extended fights where TDs may open up more as the fight progresses. On the flip side though, as noted, Menifield’s shown pockets of upside as well and he did submit a black belt in Crute – Sy will shoot from far out at times so it may be something that Menifield can threaten with. But in totality, I give more upside to Sy on pursuit and general minutes.
Fun fight and another logical progression booking for Sy after his successful debut outing back in September. Sy’s a pretty interesting prospect to me considering that he appears to be pretty well-rounded, is massive at the weight class and is still a really young guy by divisional standards at only 29 years old. On the flip side, you have a 37 year old Menifield who’s been somewhat of a hit or miss commodity over the years, but is an experienced, tested guy. So, he’ll be a sound measuring stick for Sy to see if he belongs in the Top 15 or not. I feel he’ll be able to pass the test personally as he’s got more tools at his disposal. But as alluded to above, Sy’s durability isn’t proven in my opinion and Menifield has fight altering power – this is 205 lbs. so just given knockout variance, I can’t say I’m supremely confident in Sy.
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On DraftKings, Sy is priced into that top tier this week at 9.5k, which means he will need a smash performance to stand out.
For simplicity’s sake, both Wellmaker and Abdul-Malik are -500 to win ITD or better, while Sy is -160 ITD. Still a strong line, but it does make sense to favor the more expensive fighters outright.
Sy likely has more grappling equity than both though, and just attempted seven takedowns in his last fight. If he pursues them similarly again versus Menifield, I think 2-4 takedowns are in play over 15 minutes. With that, he could take the back, earn a fair amount of control, and threaten for a sub.
I also think Sy could knock Menifield out. While he’s not really a knockout artist, the fact that his cardio held up for 15 minutes is very positive. Menifield has a questionable chin and also a questionable gas tank. It just wouldn’t be shocking to see Sy hurt Menifield at some point.
The downside is that in a decision, Sy probably doesn’t smash. He just scored 83 DK points on two takedowns and 90 sig. strikes, and it’s hard to project him for a lot more. Maybe he could get 90-100 if those two takedowns turn into four.
I want to make it clear I’m not against playing Sy. He seems somewhat safe to produce offense, and to land some takedowns. He has ITD equity. He’s cheaper than those other two names. I think he’s a solid option in all formats.
Abdul-Malik feels like he has a higher ceiling on paper though, so I’d probably lean in that direction if forced to choose. Wellmaker may have an easier path to finish though is arguably more boom or bust than Sy, so I don’t fully mind a pivot there.
I’m likely going to spread out my exposure in this top range, and all three options make sense for one reason or another. I like the safety of Sy a bit and his upside is still reasonable, but I probably won’t end up too heavy given the price tag and strength of the fighters nearby.
Menifield is priced at 6.7k and isn’t the worst target.
I don’t think Sy is a lock to grind him out on the mat, which means we could get striking exchanges. If we get striking exchanges, variance is on the table and Menifield hits really hard. A knockout wouldn’t be a shocking outcome.
However, I really like Sy’s last performance and I think he has the tools to evade and outstrike Menifield as well. Or simply outlast him. I also think he can have some wrestling success.
So I’m definitely not betting on a Menifield knockout here. He’s +500 to win ITD which isn’t particularly good.
If you need to play into this bottom range, a small percentage of Menifield is viable, and he does carry some upside. He’s not a fighter I’m particularly excited about though and won’t prioritize with the hope of an upset.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sy by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Fight Odds: Bellato -411, Craig +327
Odds to Finish: -500
DraftKings Salaries: Bellato 9.5k, Craig 6.9k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup written by Luke Lampe
Paul Craig’s one of the more interesting fighters of the modern era considering he was on tap to get cut at one point, went on a run and then found himself in the Top 15. He recently had a 4-fight stint at 185 lbs. where he went 1-3, and is now moving back up to 205 lbs. – he’s 9-9-1 in the UFC and 17-9-1 as a pro. Rodolfo Bellato’s a 2-time Contender Series alum who made good on his 2nd opportunity back in 2023, earning a contract. He’s faced a healthy amount of adversity through his first few UFC fights but sits at 1-0-1 in the promotion and 12-2-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Craig falls into the submission specialist category which leaves some more to be desired with his standup. He’s low output, landing 2.5 SLpM at 44% and 3.4 DLpM at 38%.
He’ll usually be your one and done type of striker with a jab, left hook, tepe kick or spinning back kick. Really outside of his fight with Moreira, who he clipped with a knee early, and the 1st Shogun fight where he just bombed on Shogun in the 1st round, he hasn’t looked good on the feet.
He had points of doing okay against Oezdemir, but I think part of that was that Oezdemir didn’t really respect anything coming back at him – Craig still only went 18 for 102 on head strikes.
Him and Muniz more or less just kicked each other from the outside with no real notable moments. Not a ton happened against Allen, but he was out struck there as well and did get hurt in the 2nd round.
In his defense, he only eats 3 SApM but that’s also a product of him pulling on a lot of the exchanges – he still only defends at 43%.
In that, he’s been KO’d in five of his eight losses in the UFC when grappling sequences couldn’t be initiated – he stands very upright and will rely on slipping punches or shelling.
If Hill didn’t engage in the grappling with him like a dummy in that fight, Hill would have KO’d him – I feel pretty good about saying that – probably a similar tune with Krylov. Oezdemir not KOing him was interesting but after watching the fight back, Oezdemir was more so looking to just point fight and didn’t sit down on a ton in the fight either.
Overall, Craig is still a liability on the feet in virtually every fight and will struggle with guys who won’t play his game.
Bellato’s a bricked-up dude at 205 that works in a mid-range to pressure based style.
He hasn’t always been an output machine but throws with intent when he does go, possessing some bigger power components with seven of his 12 pro wins coming KO/TKO.
His only two pro losses came to Vitor Petrino who was able to KO him on both occasions. He did take a healthy amount of damage in the 2nd fight but was returning fire and actually knocked Petrino down in the fight with a big right hand.
But he’s also shown a solid clinch game where he can wear his opponents down with knees and elbows, which we’ve seen in his last handful of fights.
The main issue I have with Bellato is that he’s not great defensively and can overextend on his shots. He will keep a higher guard at space but certain opponents have been able to work around it. I wasn’t going to label him officially chinny after getting bonked twice by Petrino but he’s also gotten knocked down in his last two fights.
He went on to win the Potieria fight and the latter two rounds against Crute, forcing the draw, so the guy won’t quit for sure but it’s still an alarming historic going forward.
How it plays out: Despite some of the documented chin issues of Bellato, this isn’t a fight I have much worry for him as Craig simply isn’t much of a threat standing. Bellato lands double the distance volume on average in comparison to Craig and hits way harder. I just don’t see what Craig’s real upside standing is outside of an errant head kick or Bellato just not throwing strikes.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Craig is a BJJ black belt with a large chunk of his fights finding their way to the ground.
He’s shown some good TD components at times, securing against guys like Ankalaev, Crute and Muniz but he’s also a guy that needs to be in deep on the original attempt to secure. If he isn’t, he’ll pull guard pretty much every time as he doesn’t possess real chain wrestling components.
In that, his grappling successes to date have primarily come on his back as he has a very aggressive/dangerous guard and longer limbs to attack triangles and armbars.
Despite me not rating him as an overall wrestler, his BJJ is dangerous. If guys don’t come proper, Craig will expose them and has on multiple occasions now.
But it’s also important to note that when Craig hasn’t gotten those early subs or been blasted himself, he’s dropped multiple fights to Crute, the 1st Shogun fight, fights where both guys were able to gain extensive top time and later in the fights and then Oezdemir who also had some top success.
We also saw Krylov beat Craig up good from top position, nearly putting him out, but he was playing with fire at the end of the day and got subbed. Allen also by and large dominated the grappling sequences, eventually winning via RNC. Craig did have a viable calf slicer at one point though. He then didn’t land any TDs against Borralho or Nickal and lost those fights.
Overall, Craig’s a poor wrestler overall securing at only 20% and stuffing at 37.5%. So opponents can take Craig down and control him, but they are playing with some fire.
Bellato is a BJJ brown belt with four of his 12 pro wins coming via submission.
He’s not a great wrestler but is capable for a guy with a base BJJ background as I’ve seen him hit some good foot sweeps, single legs and be able to drag guys down against the fence.
When on top, he’s largely been strong with the exception of losing back position against Petrino in the 2nd fight – granted Petrino’s shown a stronger ability to scramble to date.
But outside of that, he’s usually able to keep guys on the mat and will look to pass – but also works well within half guard to chip away at opponents and land GNP.
Defensively, he’s been taken down a handful of times but has always done a good job of either threatening submissions, sweeping to top or working to stand back up.
So, in general, we haven’t seen him threatened much on the floor – he was eating heavy GNP from Potieria after he got hurt standing and he has pulled guard a few times which I don’t love. But he did fine post knockdown against Crute and gave up no conventional TDs.
I do like his ability to grind guys though and he showed he can do that for 25 minutes in his last LFA fight. I don’t think he’s a cardio machine per say but it’s clearly respectable for the 205 lb. division.
Overall, Bellato’s above-average ground capabilities will give him advantages over a decent chunk of the division.
How it plays out: As noted, Bellato’s been taken down a few times but overall, his TDD is pretty solid and I think Craig is going to severely struggle getting the fight down. Bellato’s also shown to be competent in the jiu-jitsu realm so it’s not a situation where I think he’s screwed if he finds himself in tricky spots. In theory, he could wrestle Craig and probably be fine although I don’t think that would be a smart gameplan because it’s giving Craig his only real PTV.
This fight profiles as more of an IQ test for Bellato than anything. He’s not some “world class” striker but he’s clearly a better one than Craig who has the tools to keep the fight upright, outland Craig and/or put him down.
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On DraftKings, Bellato is another standard boom or bust target at 9.3k.
It’s another one that I don’t feel extremely comfortable with, to be honest, as Craig doesn’t absorb a high rate of strikes and might slow the fight down a bit. If this fight extends, I don’t think it’s very likely Bellato can reach a ceiling.
Plus, Bellato hasn’t looked particularly good in his recent fights. Craig may not be the type to fully test him but I don’t necessarily trust Bellato as a talent.
Either way, he’s priced at 9.3k and on this slate and needs an early KO. He’s -275 to win ITD which is a massive number and showing a lot of respect for Bellato. The fight as a whole is -500 to end inside the distance.
Based on that finishing metric alone, you can argue Bellato is indeed a priority and honestly sort of a stand out in this range. The upper 9k options feel safer for sure, but when you compare Bellato to Horth, Chiesa, and Namajunas, I’d probably choose the upside of Bellato first. Plus, he will fit into constructions easier than the upper 9ks which makes him very viable overall.
It’s still just difficult in that knockouts are hard to predict. Even if Bellato gets one, he could score in the low 100s and be beaten by someone else in this range. I tend to be cautious in general with early KO targets and I don’t see this as a spot that you must be heavy on.
In this particular matchup, I can acknowledge Bellato should have a clear path to keeping the fight upright and landing some big shots. His finishing metrics are elite and he’s an easy plug in when you can’t pay up further. So ultimately I don’t mind Bellato and will probably end up with moderate (near field) exposure to him on this slate.
Craig at 6.9k is viable in the sense that he’s a tough guy with some tricky ground skills, and he’s come through as a dog on more than one occasion.
He’s also not a guy I trust as his game is pretty broken and he’s just not processed.
Leverage against Bellato interests me a bit, especially as if Craig wins, it probably comes ITD. He’s +475 to win ITD though and a big dog.
I would be fine using Craig as a dart throw on this slate with leverage included. But he has no floor and it’s not a particularly strong matchup for him in any regard. Coming in very light or fading with a smaller number of lineups feels perfectly acceptable as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bellato by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee
Fight Odds: Chiesa -341, McGee +277
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Chiesa 9.2k, McGee 7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Michael Chiesa came into the UFC all the way back in 2012 after winning the 15th season of The Ultimate Fighter. He’s had a respectable career and despite getting up there in age at 37, he’s shown he can still go, and is coming off back-to-back finish wins – he’s 13-7 in the UFC and 18-7 as a pro. Court McGee’s a fellow grizzled veteran who also came into the UFC off winning the 11th season of The Ultimate Fighter back in 2010. He’s a bit older than his matchup counterpart at 40 but is coming off a win over Tim Means back in October – he’s 11-12 in the UFC and 22-13 as a pro.
The striking component:
Chiesa is a grappler by base and has a relatively rigid/basic type of striking.
Despite spending most of his career at 155 lbs., he’s still a longer southpaw at 170 standing 6’1” with a 75” reach. He more so looks to circle the outside, pop a low kick, jab and straight left.
In that, he’s low volume, landing only 1.8 SLpM at 39%, 2.7 DLpM at 30% and hasn’t shown to be a power threat through his lengthier run. Over the course of 20 UFC fights, he’s never really “struck” his way to a victory. There’s always been a grappling component involved in his wins.
However, he actually got the better of the stand up against Brady a few fights back which I thought was surprising, albeit not a ton happened – he also didn’t look bad standing in the limited exchanges in his fights with Magny, Luque and Ferguson.
To Chiesa’s credit, he’s made his style work for him to an extent and has never been KO’d (technically he was against Lauzon but that was a cut stoppage, doesn’t really count) so he’s been durable against some solid hitters. However, he was hurt in his fights with Pettis and Holland.
Given his outside, more non-committal style, he only eats 1.6 SApM at 54% and 3.1 DApM at 60%. So, he’s not really eating much in totality, however he doesn’t always react the best when he does take cleaner shots and when he’s effectively cut off.
Overall, Chiesa isn’t incapable as a striker considering he tends to limit overall exchanges pretty well, but it’s still more of a weakness than a strength in his game and he should have trouble against more athletic/explosive guys.
McGee isn’t the best athlete in the world but has shown to be a gritty dude over the course of his career.
The main credence to him standing is that he’s generally kept a consistent work rate, landing 4.5 SLpM at 38% and 5.8 DLpM at 35%. Defensively, he eats 3.6 SApM at 61% and 4.8 DApM at 63%.
But a feather in his cap given his strength of comp consideration is that the largest negative strike differential he’s had in the last eight years was 16 significant strikes against Sean Strickland – pretty impressive actually given the output of Strickland and Strickland being a very good boxer.
The problem with McGee is that because he’s more of a volume guy, not possessing much power and being somewhat slow, he’s found himself on the losing end of striking based decisions by just not doing enough overall or not having many big moments – he does have three KDs in his last 10 fights though which does need to be noted, but he’s never been able to close the show.
He also tends to get busted up a bit in a lot of his fights as well, which isn’t great optically. One of McGee’s historic calling cards was his durability, but he’s been KO’d in two of his last three losses, and has been dropped four times in his last eight fights since entering his late 30s.
Overall, despite the very pressing durability and age concerns of McGee, he’s not one to be taken lightly or he will expose guys standing who can’t match his pace or cardio.
How it plays out: The stand up is weird here because you have a guy in McGee who’s far more consistent to throw strikes (2x more than Chiesa) but Cheisa’s also been a pretty effective neutralizer of offense at the same time, only allowing 3 DApM. While Chiesa has shown some durability chinks, McGee’s not particularly dangerous. While McGee shown more durability chinks, Chiesa also hasn’t shown to be dangerous with only one UFC knockdown. So ultimately what I see here is McGee probably looking to walk forward and get off what he can with Chiesa skirting the outside, landing singular pot shots in what will probably be a low volume affair standing.
The wrestling/grappling component:
This is the wheelhouse of Chiesa and what has brought him the successes he’s had in the UFC.
He lands 3.3 TDs per 15 minutes at 49% and is in control time positions for 43% of his overall fight time – very solid ground efficiency numbers. He also reps a BJJ black belt.
What I’ve always respected about Chiesa is that he’s a fighter who’s going to maximize his win condition every time out, and can just blanket guys on top because he has good control components and really utilizes his frame in his grappling.
A great example of this was against RDA (solid black belt). He took RDA down six times and actually took his back and had him in a solid RNC in the first round of that fight.
Another example of his pedigree was in submitting Dariush – another world class black belt where he seamlessly took his back and finished him without the choke even being under the chin. Those are just two examples of how potent of an offensive grappler Chiesa can be.
He also went 4/6 on TDs and got 15+ minutes of control time on Magny over a 25-minute fight, winning a UD, and most recently was able to submit Max Griffin, handing him his first SUB loss of his pro career.
Eight of his 13 UFC wins have come via submission however, he’s been submitted in five of his seven UFC losses as he has lost position in the scramble at times, shot sloppy shots or gotten out-wrestled to back take – so despite his higher offensive pedigree, he’s got some real issues defensively and only stuffs TDs at 60%.
But in general, he’s a guy who’s floated under the radar for years and hasn’t been given enough credit in my opinion for his offensive skills.
McGee comes from a wrestling background but isn’t a guy who has necessarily gone to it with regularity fight to fight. But he lands 1.8 TDs per 15 minutes at 24%.
An interesting fight for McGee was that he didn’t even attempt one TD against Carlos Condit six fights ago – a guy who only stuffs TDs at 39% — was the clear PTV for McGee and instead showed poor fight IQ and lost a striking based decision.
But he then wrestles Claudio Silva (high level black belt) — turned out to be a great game plan as he got like eight minutes of control and beat him up good on the ground. After, he puts on a wrestling clinic against Brahimaj.
So I did like McGee’s willingness to go to it in those wins and he did pursue early against Means, finding his first submission win since 2010.
Defensively, he stuffs at 64% which is right around the division average.
Probably the best core competency of McGee outside of his TDD is that his get up-game is pretty elite, allowing less than one minute of control per TD.
However, guys have gotten to his back in multiple fights, but he does a great job of nullifying hooks and fighting hands to prevent full back takes, advances and can work out.
McGee’s spent nearly four hours in the UFC cage and has only conceded 11 minutes of control time – pretty insane metric.
Overall, he’s good in the wrestling if he decides to use it, not a much of a historic submission threat offensively but has also never been submitted in 35 pro fights – in his last 12 fights, he’s fought no opponent below a BJJ purple belt status for additional context.
How it plays out: Similar to the striking, the ground is somewhat tricky to analyze here as well. Chiesa’s been a lethal submission grappler but he’s also been a mark to the submission whereas McGee hasn’t been a lethal submission grappler, but he’s also never been comprehensively outwrestled, let alone submitted. Now, Chiesa is one of the more potent ground guys McGee has fought which needs to be noted but Sean Brady also couldn’t really do shit to McGee in that realm which is interesting. So, there’s a quasi-argument to say that McGee actually may be more live to win wrestling minutes here but it’s honestly hard to say – tricky dynamic.
For all the reasons mentioned above, this is a really weird fight but a pretty cool booking between two guys that have still shown some life despite being towards the ends of their careers. Chiesa is the guy who’s three years younger and on paper presents more finish upside, so he’s my pick to win but it’s a tough fight to analyze where I do consider McGee a live underdog.
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On DraftKings, I consider Chiesa to be early submission or bust from a fantasy standpoint.
He’s priced up at 9.2k and just doesn’t have a massive ceiling with his style. He’s not a high volume wrestler and doesn’t land a ton of ground-and-pound, so even in best case scenarios, he’s just getting one takedown and locking up a choke.
For context, Chiesa has scored 75, 98, 101 (five rounds), 91, 110, 103, 82, 97, 91, 84 86, 82 and 101 in his wins. Of those 13 victories, eight have come inside the distance which is highly concerning, considering he’s only topped 100 points a few times.
In his most recent fight, Chiesa won by sub in round three and only scored 75, because it only came with two takedowns and 54 total strikes. An extended fight just doesn’t set up well for Chiesa due to his lack of offense on a per minute basis.
Now he’s fighting a guy in McGee who’s never been subbed. It’s going to be hard for me to be excited here. At the same time, McGee can give up his back and can also be hurt. Aging is difficult to cap and there’s some variance in this kind of matchup, where I do still think a finish could materialize.
Still, Chiesa is only +175 to win ITD in a matchup that’s -150 to go the distance. I think he’s a fine secondary tournament target at 9.2k as he fits in easier than the most expensive fighters, but I’m not in love with this spot. He has a thin window to reach the optimal based on his style against an opponent who never really allows that path.
I may end up with mild exposure to Chiesa due to his grappling path and price tag but I wouldn’t be excited to be overweight and my best guess is the fight makes it past a round and Chiesa fails to reach 100 points on DK.
McGee is somewhat live at 7k and I don’t mind him as a cheap target.
There are other cheap targets I like on this slate as well, and paying up to the mid 7ks feels like the best spot for win equity.
McGee doesn’t have a massive ceiling anyway as he almost never wins ITD. He’s only +525 ITD here. Plus, Chiesa will limit strikes and probably limit a ground attack as well. McGee has a pretty weak floor in this matchup on paper.
At the same time, I’m not a big fan of Chiesa. McGee will likely throw more strikes than him, and he could have mild wrestling success too. Chiesa is really only successful from the back, so in every other position, McGee can compete.
I don’t hate taking a couple shots on McGee as Chiesa’s style is just poorly processed and he also is his own worst enemy, getting subbed in most of his losses. I respect the minute winning of McGee more.
I’m still unsure whether he has any real upside and he could very well just get his back taken and lose, so I’m not planning on prioritizing McGee in any fashion. But I think he has sneaky win equity for the price and I don’t mind him as a semi-contrarian cheap target.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chiesa by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho
Fight Odds: Wellmaker -2100, Moutinho +1092
Odds to Finish: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Wellmaker 9.8k, Moutinho 6.4k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potential banger (and most likely an execution here) between Malcolm Wellmaker and Kris Moutinho.
Wellmaker is an American fighter who is 9-0 professionally and is 31 years old. He booked his ticket to the UFC by knocking out Adam Bramhald in round one with a nasty counter right hook.
Wellmaker then made his UFC debut against Cameron Saaiman. Wellmaker also knocked out Saaiman with a right hook in round one.
Wellmaker clearly has power and is best as a striker. He is a good athlete and has a lot of speed on the feet. He also is just accurate and generally finds his target with his power strikes. He has a lot of power in his hands. He is pretty slick on the feet and long at 5’10”, and can manage range well and land a variety of strikes. I overall think he is solid on the feet and will continue to be a knockout threat in the UFC with his power, speed and athleticism.
I still do think Wellmaker is a bit green though and he does lack volume at certain times. I also don’t think he is a real offensive wrestling threat. I also think he will probably be outgrappled in this division at some point. He is super physical though. I have seen him taken down here and there though.
Wellmaker also doesn’t have a ton of experience for a 31 year old though. He has just kind of fought on the regionals in the amateurs and professional level for a very long time without fighting many good guys. He is definitely UFC level and not a fraud. I do worry that he is just a little too inexperienced for a 31 year old though.
Wellmaker will be taking on Kris Moutinho. I seriously didn’t know Moutinho was back in the UFC. We last saw him get knocked out by Guido Canetti in the UFC back in 2022. Since then, he actually has gone 5-0 on the regional scene, finishing all of his opponents, and is now getting a shot back in the UFC.
Moutinho had a memorable debut against Sean O’Malley back in the day. He pressured O’Malley on the feet for the ENTIRE fight. He was outlanded 230-70 in significant strikes. That is not a typo lol. It set records for strikes absorbed in a three round UFC fight. Moutinho showed an insane pace and toughness for those 15 minutes though.
However, he just walked into shots all night against a much superior striker.
O’Malley is really good so it is easy to forgive Moutinho for that fight. The Cannetti knockout was more concerning though.
I actually don’t think Moutinho is that bad. He is a brawling striker with a pretty crazy pace and lots of volume. He kind of reminds me of a male version of Priscilla Cachoeira. Like her, he is very hittable and doesn’t have great skills considering he blocks strikes with his face.
However, he is SUPER aggressive, willing to throw hard shots, and will come forward hard with reliable cardio for 15 minutes. He is actually very fun to watch. I just don’t think his brain likes his style of fighting.
My issue with Moutinho is that a lot of his success comes in close quarters so he is super susceptible to big shots coming in. He has been dropped several times and knocked out a few times in his career. However, like Cachoeira, I honestly think that he could beat some UFC competition by a random KO or by gassing his opponents out. He will certainly get knocked out along the way as he is too reckless though.
Moutinho also seems to be a somewhat competent grappler when he gets in top position. However, he doesn’t really shoot for a lot of takedowns and just likes to brawl. Most of the times that he gets top position is from a random knockdown or by his opponents falling over due to exhaustion. So I still consider his pace to be his greatest weapon. I think his success in general, whether it is with striking or grappling, will come when his opponents are exhausted.
Look man, this fight is pretty simple to break down. Moutinho is going to come forward like a psycho and he most likely will get knocked out. I think Moutinho’s come forward and taking strikes style can work at times. However, it is really dangerous to use that style against a true power puncher like Wellmaker. Wellmaker should be able to land at will early here. Most likely, Moutinho will get hurt and knocked out. I think that is the most likely outcome of the fight and what I am picking to happen.
If Moutinho happens to survive, this could get interesting just because Moutinho could honestly gas many fighters out. Maybe Wellmaker throws power strikes, Moutinho survives, and then Wellmaker starts to get tired. If that happens, I could see Moutinho start to land his own strikes and exhaust Wellmaker and maybe even get him to the mat. I do think it is at least possible.
Still though, Moutinho has some of the worst defense in the UFC and he is going against a really heavy hitter. My guess is Moutinho gets hurt early and doesn’t survive it.
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On DraftKings, Wellmaker is priced up to 9.8k which makes him difficult to afford.
I haven’t had the best luck with these super heavy favorites this year. When I’m off them, they score 2 KDs in a four-minute win and become optimal by a point. When I’m on them, they score well but not well enough.
With that said, this feels like a very expensive price to pay and I’m pretty hesitant to pull the trigger.
The upside of course is that Wellmaker can definitely win by KO. He has real power and Moutinho lacks defense, and has been knocked out several times in his career. Wellmaker is -500 to win ITD which is elite.
Plus, Moutinho fights at a high pace which should allow for more positive exchanges for Wellmaker. It will give him additional early opportunities that could allow for multiple knockdowns and lots of strikes in total.
My fears are just that it’s still a really thin window to hit. Wellmaker isn’t a massive volume guy, so I’d be worried about what happens in a second or third round KO. Moutinho is tough, despite getting hurt a lot.
Wellmaker is also just really green. He’s fought in the UFC less than two minutes and he hasn’t been pushed super hard. Moutinho could actually test him in an extended fight, as crazy as that sounds. I’d still favor Wellmaker on optics but Moutinho is experienced and still did land 70 strikes on Sean O’Malley.
So essentially, I put Wellmaker into a boom or bust type of category. He’s very likely to hit but I’m still not sure it will be enough, and he’ll likely have to beat out the other expensive 9k fighters, which I am not sure is as likely as his betting line might suggest.
If you can afford Wellmaker, he’s clearly in play and will rate out among the best overall on the slate due to early finishing equity. I think it’s pretty likely he can get the finish.
I’m also not super confident in that fact and I’d be very worried about him scoring enough in an extended fight. I don’t mind prioritizing Abdul-Malik straight up and I don’t mind if you simply cannot afford Wellmaker with a more mid-range construction.
Moutinho is priced at 6.4k. You know what would be funny is if DraftKings made him $1k. How popular would he be then, as a +1000 underdog? It’s an interesting thought exercise.
Anyways, I don’t think Moutinho is the worst play in the world. He has a pressure style that can produce points, and he possibly could have success in an extended fight. There’s also variance in striking exchanges and it’s possible Moutinho has some shot at a guillotine or some random transitional sub.
Obviously the most likely scenario is that he loses big and is an easy fade. You don’t need to play any of him with a smaller portfolio.
In large fields, perhaps there’s enough reason to get on a small percentage considering the leverage and pressure style. His odds are so poor though at +1000 ITD that he’d honestly be a fine fade on paper as well.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wellmaker by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa
Fight Odds: Ochoa -187, Durden +159
Odds to Finish: -135
DraftKings Salaries: Ochoa 8.6k, Durden 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun action fight here between Jose Ochoa and Cody Durden. This fight is sneaky fun and I could see a performance bonus or fight of the night type of situation here as it should bring some exciting moments.
Ochoa is a Peruvian fighter who is 7-1 professionally and 24 years old.
Ochoa made his UFC debut back in November against fellow prospect Lone’er Kavanagh who is a very solid fighter. I remember going into that fight, I liked the tape of both guys but thought Kavanagh would be a little too evasive and technical for Ochoa.
That ended up being the case.
I honestly thought Ochoa fought well and the fight was extremely competitive. However, in two of the rounds, Kavanagh was just a little more evasive and landed the cleaner head shots. Ochoa did stop the two takedown attempts by Kavanagh though and Ochoa actually won round two by hurting Kavanagh and getting his back, but the round ended. Kavanagh outlanded Ochoa 51-50 in significant strikes in the fight so it was close but Kavanagh was rightfully rewarded the decision.
Before his UFC debut against Kavanagh, Ochoa fought his last regional fight in LFA against an okay opponent and won by first round finish. Most of Ochoa’s competition on the regional scene had come in crappy South America promotions. So it is hard to know how good he is and he has not been tested in many areas of his game.
However, I do like the raw footage I have seen of Ochoa and I thought the Kavanagh fight confirmed that Ochoa is a decent fighter.
Ochoa likes to pressure strike. He likes his left kick out of the southpaw stance and will stalk his opponents. He does a pretty good job staying out of range. He is also dangerous on the inside with his knees. He also looks to have some power, especially on the inside. He has kind of just overwhelmed his opponents with power and pressure thus far. I honestly like what I see from him on the feet, but he hasn’t fought many good fighters, so I don’t know how his defense will hold up or other areas of his game. You still saw him have success against Kavanagh though and I think he is capable of having success in the UFC.
Ochoa has landed some takedowns here and there, but his top control doesn’t look strong and I doubt he can outwrestle decent flyweights in the UFC. I have seen him defend takedowns well and use front chokes to deter takedowns. He looks competent as a defensive grappler. However, again he hasn’t fought the best competition. The takedowns he stopped against Kavanagh also came when Kavanagh was hurt. I really did like the back take that Ochoa showed against Kavanagh though.
I think there is just a lack of sample size from Ochoa against decent competition. So it is hard to get a full read on him. I definitely think he looks dangerous though and I like his pressure on the feet. I think he can pressure opponents into finishes in this division by landing inside strikes or club-and-subs.
Ochoa is also very young and looks better than most 24 year old fighters, so he has a ton of time to develop. His cardio also looks decent. I am not totally sold on him as a grappler, and I also just don’t know a ton about his striking defense. However, I think he is offensively potent.
Ochoa will be taking on UFC veteran Cody Durden. Durden is kind of a wrestle-brawler. He likes to shoot in for takedowns and get the back to look for ground-and-pound or a quick submission. He will also try to grind fighters out for 15 minutes as he did to Carlos Mota, Qileng Aori, Charles Johnson, and Jake Hadley.
Durden showed some decent grit in those fights and stayed tough for 15 minutes. He lands 4.06 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good. I think he can continue to win with wrestling against below-average grapplers at this level.
I still just think Durden has kind of been lucky with matchups. Those four guys that I mentioned are absolutely terrible wrestlers and I was very confident in Tagir Ulanbekov before their matchup, and Ulanbekov dominated him. Durden has lost three of his last four as well.
I also don’t like that Durden has been submitted four times in his career. I hate when gameplan dependent grapplers get consistently submitted. It just makes their fights even harder to predict.
Furthermore, I had questions about Durden’s defensive grappling before the Ulanbekov fight and Ulanbekov dominated him. I don’t think it is particularly great.
Durden is okay on the feet. He lands 3.52 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.29 in return. He just kind of brawls, and again, I think he is decent and powerful early. However, I don’t trust him over the course of 15 minutes in striking exchanges to comfortably win. He also has been getting hurt a lot lately and was recently knocked out by Bruno Silva.
As far as this matchup goes, it is kind of hard to know where Ochoa is as a defensive grappler. He may have a hole there and Durden may just take advantage of that and outwrestle Ochoa for 15 minutes. We have seen Durden do that before to a few guys. Durden is on paper the best wrestler that Ochoa has faced.
However, I think Ochoa’s takedown defense has looked good in the few sequences that I have seen. I also like that he threatens with front chokes. He could honestly submit Durden with that or deter Durden’s takedowns in general.
On the feet, I think Ochoa is far more dangerous, and I like his striking style and pressure more. Durden can probably land some shots as Ochoa’s defense does have some issues. Kavanagh was very evasive against Ochoa though. Durden succumbs to pressure, and doesn’t move laterally well and he gets tired. I think Ochoa can probably walk Durden down and hurt him on the inside or panic Durden into shooting a sloppy shot. I kind of lean towards Ochoa finishing Durden at some point. Ochoa is super dangerous and Durden has been finished four times in the UFC.
I am going to go with Ochoa here. Maybe he turns out to be a defensive grappling fraud. However,I did like the few sequences that I saw and I think he stylistically has a game that can put Durden into some dangerous exchanges. I think he will eventually get Durden out of there.
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On DraftKings, this is another solid mid-range fight with some upside.
Ochoa will fall into the boom or bust category though at 8.6k, which makes me nervous. He’s coming off a loss that only scored 23 points, so he would have scored 53 in a win. This matchup is obviously a bit different but the point remains that his mid-volume style won’t score well without knockouts.
In that, he does have finishing equity here. He’s down to +125 to win ITD which is pretty strong, and Durden has been knocked down in two of his last four fights. He did just take a beating from Joshua Van, but survived.
This matchup is simply hard for me to call. I do think Ochoa wins in a pure striking fight, but I also think Durden is a different test than one he’s easily passed. Projecting knockouts is tough.
I consider Ochoa a fine secondary target on this slate for knockout upside. I don’t think I’ll be overweight as I tend to be cautious with these types, but he’s priced well against a shaky opponent. Having some exposure makes sense but I’d definitely cap it due to the bust risk.
Durden is priced at 7.6k and I think he’s a decent secondary target as well.
I mostly don’t love him because he’s not super talented and I think Ochoa probably keeps the fight upright and beats him. However, Durden has lots of wrestling equity and has put up big scores in wins in the past.
Durden only has six UFC wins but he’s scored 85, 84, 129, 86, 112 and 93, which is solid. I doubt he’s beating Ochoa on the feet here and I doubt 1-2 takedowns is enough to seal the deal.
It makes me think if Durden wins it all, it comes with several takedowns. He’s landed 4+ on four different occasions. That would give him a reasonable floor/ceiling at 7.6k, with a shot at 100 points. He is only +450 to win ITD but the wrestling equity is more important in my mind.
There are enough viable dogs on this slate not to chase Durden, and I’m not sold he wins. But there are some unknowns with Ochoa so this could just be a mispricing based on sample, and I don’t mind Durden’s price. He’s a solid secondary target all things considered.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ochoa by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Ricky Simon vs. Cameron Smotherman
Fight Odds: Simon -513, Smotherman +396
Odds to Finish: -163
DraftKings Salaries: Simon 8.7k, Smotherman 6.5k
Weight Class: 135
We have a midweek replacement fight as Ricky Simon gets to stay on the card, with Cameron Smotherman stepping in for Charles Jourdain.
Simon is coming off a stunning knockout victory over Javid Basharat, putting him out cold in just a few minutes. It’s the second time we’ve seen Simon score a big KO in the UFC, with the other coming against Raphael Assuncao in 2021.
Otherwise, Simon has largely relied on his wrestling to have success at the UFC level. He lands 5.17 takedowns per 15 minutes which is super impressive, and famously topped out at 14 takedowns landed on the first season of the Contender Series back in 2017. Simon has landed 6+ takedowns six times in 15 tracked fights which is pretty impressive.
However, I’ve never been a huge fan of Simon’s game because he lacks any control ability on the mat, and isn’t a super strong submission grappler either. So he’s generally taking his opponents down with big bursts of energy, but letting them right back up. It’s why he’s been able to land 6+ takedowns so many times, but rarely wins cleanly or inside the distance.
And more recently, that wrestling has been failing more often. He’s actually landed two takedowns or less in each of his last six fights, which is really scary. It’s come against a better level of competition, but still. Landing only 1-3 takedowns in a fight makes me far more concerned about his win chances in comparison to landing 6-7 takedowns.
On the feet, Simon is a fine boxer with some power, but I don’t trust him at all. He lands 2.87 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.87 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate. He doesn’t have a high volume ceiling and has never landed 70 sig. strikes, even in his five-round fight against Yadong.
I also feel like he’s been regressing as a fighter in total. His recent KO win was impressive, but he was failing to wrestle and was getting outstruck, and would have almost certainly lost had it gone the expected three rounds.
He just hasn’t improved much. I can’t really count on him winning wrestling rounds without volume, as control won’t be there. I can’t count on striking volume. I’m actually looking to fade him in the future.
Simon should get a semi-favorable short-notice matchup against Cameron Smotherman, who is coming in on just a few days notice.
Smotherman also made his UFC debut in October as a short-notice fill-in against Jake Hadley, and surprisingly won as a +400 underdog.
Smotherman basically just outboxed Hadley for three rounds, landing 96 significant strikes to Hadley’s 60. I suppose it’s not too shocking of an outcome considering Hadley is very poorly processed and specializes as a submission grappler, but Smotherman didn’t rate out as a strong prospect either and he looked fairly comfortable in those boxing exchanges.
In his sophomore performance, Smotherman was outclassed by Serhiy Sidey, getting taken down five times while the striking exchanges were largely competitive. Smotherman actually did OK defending, and only allowed those five takedowns on 12 attempts, while only yielding four minutes of control. Sidey had him in a deep d’arce choke at one point where Smotherman survived, and also threatened with back hooks on a couple of occasions.
Smotherman basically limited the wrestling as best he could, but it still wasn’t enough. He was fairly flatfooted on the feet too, but still had some success in the pocket and mid-range with his hands.
Smotherman is now 12-5, and he’s earned six wins by TKO and one by submission. He was previously KOd in about a minute on the Contender Series in 2023, by Charalampos Grigoriou who has already crashed out of the promotion.
After that, he fought a few times on the regionals and won, which included two third-round finishes and a split decision, and didn’t look particularly great. I generally just consider him a boxer, who’s capable enough in that particular area of the game, and largely weak elsewhere.
Smotherman has been pretty inconsistent with his volume but to his credit, landing 96 sig. strikes in your debut is solid. If he can keep up that work rate, I will like him more as his round winning equity will be stronger. He does carry a bit of power, but I would not label him a tremendous power striker and he only has a couple of early KOs on his record.
Again to be fair, he does have a few late finishes, and his cardio looks pretty decent. He’s still been KOd early a couple of times and I’m not sure he’s much more likely to land a big shot than opponents are to land on him.
As a wrestler, Smotherman looks mediocre defensively and it doesn’t seem to be a path of his offensively.
His first-level takedown defense can be OK at times, but he looks somewhat weak on his back and he’s been put in bad positions on the regionals. I would expect a strong wrestler to take him down and potentially get in dominant positions, and I’m also not expecting him to land many takedowns of his own.
So for now, the jury is still out on Smotherman, but he rates out as a mediocre boxer who is somewhat inconsistent with both volume and power. I do think he can win boxing based fights and potentially hurt opponents, but he’ll get hurt occasionally too, outwrestled, and will probably struggle against opponents whom he can’t easily access the pocket.
As far as this matchup, I’ll be honest and say I’m highly concerned Simon is going to bust here.
Purely at distance, I favor Smotherman. He’s taller, a more comfortable boxer and he throws more volume. It’s not that Simon can’t compete there or hurt him, but Simon has shown such low volume numbers and Smotherman is simply a more comfortable boxer.
Yes, I do think Simon can take him down but Simon sucks at controlling opponents, so if he just lets Smotherman back up to his feet, I’m not sure that will be enough to overcome a boxing disadvantage. I would prefer he land 5-8 takedowns here which gives him a much better chance to win optics and rounds.
My guess is that’s probably what will happen. Simon still attempts takedowns at a moderate rate. He attempted 11 against Oliveira and 13 against Bautista, who both held him to two landed. In another 12 takedowns attempted, Simon can land 4-6 or something, and that would make me feel OK. He’ll have a better shot at some control against Smotherman, ground strikes, or a random sub. So he’s still a fine favorite and probably has an edge on cardio with the short notice factor.
I just want to make it clear that Simon’s game is regressing, and he hasn’t had much or any wrestling success in recent fights, which I think is semi-predictive. If he fails to land takedowns in volume, I won’t be surprised if this is another competitive fight and Simon may just get edged out on pure boxing.
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On DraftKings, Simon is going to be chalk which is hilarious, due to the late fight replacement.
He’s currently priced at 8.7k and is lined at -513 which makes him one of the biggest favorites on the entire slate. In a win, it almost certainly comes with several takedowns, which gives Simon a strong floor/ceiling combination in a win and therefore arguably deserving of the chalk.
In past wins, we’ve seen Simon score 113, 112, 106, 98, 131, 107, 101, 89, 79 and 121, which is pretty elite. Primarily, it’s been the volume wrestling that has gotten him there.
I’ll say it for the fifth time, but I am simply fearful that Simon is regressing. I think he can land four takedowns here but I am far from sure that translates into meaningful control and a finish. ITD odds aren’t out yet, and Simon will carry some finishing equity, but is far from a guarantee to finish.
He will carry some pop but you’re not going to want to play him for KO equity, and striking is a much more likely recipe to a bust than it is to an optimal score.
Simon will rate out very well for the price at 8.7k, and can be viewed as a primary target in all formats. Having exposure to a heavy favorite with strong wrestling equity makes a lot of sense.
I also think it’s a very intriguing spot to come in underweight, and I probably will make conscious pivots myself. If Simon wins a decision and lands four takedowns or so, he could easily end up in the mid-80s on DraftKings or less. At chalk, I could see a big percentage of the field going down.
Clearly Simon is a strong play and paper and one I will target by default, but it’s not a bad spot to play into a game theory a bit.
Smotherman is priced at 6.5k and will only really be in play for leverage purposes.
Although I actually think he can win this fight, he’s a big dog, and doesn’t carry any real fantasy upside without a knockout.
Smotherman landed 96 sig. strikes in his debut decision win and only scored 69 DK points. I do think a mid-60s score is viable in a win. Typically that wouldn’t be enough but perhaps at 6.5k with leverage included, it would be OK. He won’t carry much finishing equity either.
I don’t see a reason to be excited about Smotherman but he at least carries a path to victory and crazy leverage against Simon. I’d only label him a dart throw but in large-fields, he’s in the mix once you are considering punting below the 7k dropoff.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Simon by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Phil Rowe vs. Ange Loosa
Fight Odds: Loosa -126, Rowe +108
Odds to Finish: +175
DraftKings Salaries: Loosa 8.4k, Rowe 7.8k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Phil Rowe’s a Contender Series alum from the 2020 season and has been the dictionary definition of inconsistency, not only fight to fight but round to round – he’s 3-3 in the UFC and 10-5 as a pro. Ange Loosa’s a fellow Contender Series alum from the 2021 season where he had the unfortunate booking of being pitted against the now sitting champion Jack Della Maddalena. He went back to the regionals but got the call up the following year as a short notice replacement, and has since gone 2-2 in the promotion – he’s 10-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Rowe is a freakishly long guy for the division standing 6’3” with an 80” reach.
He’s shown elements of being able to work behind his length but other times, not so much. Rowe eats 4.1 SApM at 56% and 6.4 DApM at 60%. He’s also been hurt significantly multiple times in the UFC but has recovered to his defense.
Offensively, he lands 3 SLpM at 45% which isn’t great due to grappling in his fights but lands 5.4 DLpM ,has some fast hands, power and we’ll unload on guys when he smells blood in the water – 6 of 10 pro wins come via strikes.
I think part of his defensive issues are his footwork – if he could really hone that in, Rowe would be more effective. Overall, he’s potent offensively but poor defensively.
Loosa isn’t the tallest guy in the world at 170 but he is compact and also reps a 74” reach.
Earlier on in his career, he’d come out, just bull rush guys and get them out early. In that, he’s shown some quick, explosive tendencies finishing 5 of his 10 pro wins via strikes.
However, in his last eight or so fights, he’s fought with more composure and his power hasn’t translated as much against a better level of competition. This has been encouraging in some regard that he understands he’s not going to just be able to ice everyone he fights early, and he has been looking to be more technical.
At the same time, he has been higher volume so far in the UFC, landing 5.9 SLpM at 46%.
On the other side though, two of those regional fights were very competitive and went to splits as a result against not very good guys. On DWCS, he landed some good shots on Maddalena but really struggled with the pressure boxing and specifically combo hooks.
He was able to out kickbox John Howard who’s on the tail end of his career and another shorty, stocky 170er. I thought he competed well against Lazzez but was just a step behind. The overall distance exchanges against Fletcher were competitive where Loosa was winning more of the minutes, but he also got significantly hurt in the 2nd round – showed solid recoverability though.
He got outlanded at distance 70-45 by McKee but won in the clinch and ground striking to where he hurt McKee badly in the 2nd round. However, Loosa also got significantly hurt in the 3rd and dropped that round.
Not much happened in the Battle fight as it was a generally tepid affair, but he was getting walked down, lost the 1st round unanimously prior to the eye poke and it did appear that Battle was beginning to break him down. Most recently, he just got outworked by Bonfim, getting essentially 2x’d on strikes both significantly and at distance.
Overall, Loosa’s a decent striker but there’s some tit for tat in his game and he’s clearly lost to the more meaningful levels of strikers he’s faced in addition to being outlanded to the head 388-276. Despite being hittable and hurt in a few fights though, Loosa’s shown to have pretty solid hardware and won’t be an easy guy to get out of there.
How it plays out: Both guys are weird/ tricky striking matchups for each other from different perspectives. In a vacuum, Loosa has struggled with longer, higher output strikers which is Rowe technically. But Rowe’s volume hasn’t always been consistent round to round and he has also gotten outlanded by more compact/pressure strikers which is Loosa. Both guys have also been hurt in their fights but have never been finished in the UFC. So, you can make a sufficient argument for either guy winning the striking here in my eyes. I honestly don’t have much of a take because not much would surprise me.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Rowe is a grappler by base holding a black belt BJJ status.
He’s finished four of his 10 pro wins via submission but I was only able to find one of them on tape. Rowe kind of falls in the “kitchen sink BJJ guy” category for me where he will stand and strike for extended periods because he’s fine with being taken down to play from his back at times.
However, I’ve also seen him pull guard and get stuck there for periods of time as well. But he will be aggressive in attacking subs and sweeps from bottom.
One of the main issues I have with Rowe is that he’s a subpar wrestler which in general is always a pet peeve of mine for base BJJ fighters.
Now as touched on, Rowe’s hands are pretty good so it’s not as much of a knock. But he only stuffs TDs at 56%, though to his defense, he has shown some get-up and sweep ability.
He did take a couple grappling matches recently where he got washed out by Checco and Steele but really no shame there as they’re both higher level black belts.
Overall, you can’t really trust Rowe to wrestle with much consistency, but he did get to the back in his last couple fights. Despite his grappling pedigree, the floor is how he’s lost minutes in multiple fights.
I’m unsure of Loosa’s wrestling/grappling credentials but his fights have hit the floor often. He’s shown to be a decent wrestler landing 2.7 TDs per 15 minutes at 40%.
I’d say the best part of his ground game is his ground-and-pound but as a result, opponents have been able to create space on him as he will be overaggressive and he’s been swept from mount twice.
But he did have some wrestling success against Maddalena (threatened with an arm triangle) and was able to outwrestle Howard in his last regional outing. He was also able to dig deep and win the 3rd against Fletcher via wrestling when Fletcher gassed out.
Loosa went 6/10 on TDs against McKee which served to be the primary difference maker in the fight with added ground damage.
However, he’s not immune to being taken down either, but has largely shown a pretty good get-up game in getting an underhook and working to a hip to stand – that’s referencing back to his regional days more so as he’s only been conventionally taken down twice in his last nine fights – he’s shown get ups in the few times he’s been taken down in the UFC though and is stuffing in totality at 83%.
He does have one submission win, but it was a fight that I wasn’t able to find.
In totality, Loosa is physically strong and a competent wrestler, winning control positions overall at 80% thus far in the UFC, but he hasn’t shown to be a submission threat and isn’t a great control artist on a per TD basis despite the stat referenced above.
How it plays out: Similarly to the striking, the ground is variable in terms of upside for a few reasons. Loosa is obviously the more consistent wrestler and the far more likely party to attempt and land TDs here – in addition to being physically stronger. We know Rowe can be taken down and lose rounds via wrestling. But as noted above, Loosa isn’t a great ground control artist and hasn’t submitted anyone in over a decade. Rowe has the better jiu-jitsu here and is also a sweep threat but Rowe also hasn’t submitted anyone since 2019. Loosa has been threatened with sub attempts before though and not much has come overtly close so for pure wrestling pursuit purposes, I would give more upside to Loosa in this capacity.
This fight’s a complete shitshow but a well-matched shitshow to a degree as both are incredibly wishy washy fighters that severely struggle to string together 15 minutes. Legitimately both guys have not had a complete performance thus far in the UFC. There’s arguments to be made both ways here but I side more with Loosa as I feel he’s the more likely party to land TDs, I don’t think he’s going to be easy to finish (although Rowe is the more dangerous guy on paper) and “can” be commensurate on volume.
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On DraftKings, my gut feeling is to avoid the fight as I expect it to be competitive, and without domination upside, I’m unsure either side will reach a ceiling.
Of the two, Loosa would be preferred at 8.4k as he actually has shown a ceiling that’s come with wrestling. In his two UFC wins, Loosa has scored 124 and 115 which is super impressive considering both came from decisions. That definitely has my attention.
However, in the 124 win, he landed 129 sig. strikes and two takedowns with 241 total strikes. The 115 win came with six takedowns and 98 sig. strikes. I’d be surprised if he could reach those totals here.
Primarily, Rowe shouldn’t be absorbing that many strikes. Rowe is five inches taller with an eight inch reach advantage. He did give up 110 sig. strikes to Price though, and he can be taken down.
I would say a reasonable outcome for Loosa in a win is 2-4 takedowns with five minutes of control, and 70-80 sig. strikes. That would be a low 80s score on the low end and a mid 90s score on the high end. So in that sense, I think Loosa has a pretty solid floor in a win and would be worth some exposure at 8.4k.
I’m just skeptical he can put together the complete performance. I think Rowe is a better boxer and way bigger, and probably the better sub grappler too. So while Loosa can win minutes and rounds, I’m not sure it comes easy.
I consider Loosa a fine secondary target for floor and price at 8.4k, and he can exceed value in a win. He’s still only +400 ITD and I would have to cap my exposure pretty firmly.
Rowe at 7.8k is the riskier play because he doesn’t wrestle much. Even two takedowns would be a surprise.
He can land with volume in theory but in reality he’s done a poor job doing so. I would say 100 sig. strikes are on the table but 60-80 is more realistic. So he’s not likely to exceed value in a win, on average.
I think Rowe has a bit more finishing upside though, and he’s +325 to win ITD. He could hurt Loosa. That feels like his path to the optimal which I don’t really trust.
I’m guessing Rowe won’t be popular this week coming off a couple losses, with weak scores on his resume. He’s a fine secondary target with win equity but I don’t love his path to a ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Loosa by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
Fight Odds: Horth -558, Demopoulos +425
Odds to Finish: +275
DraftKings Salaries: Horth 9.4k, Demopoulos 6.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random matchup here as Jamey-Lyn Horth will take on Vanessa Demopolous this weekend. Horth’s original opponent Tereza Bleda pulled out last week, so Demopolous will be taking this on short notice.
Horth is 7-2 professionally fighting mostly terrible competition. She did actually beat Lupita Godinez twice on the amateur circuit but those fights were about seven years ago.
Horth made her UFC debut against Hailey Cowan and basically won a low tempo striking fight where she landed 76 significant strikes in a pretty boring and terrible fight. She then lost a close decision to Veronica Hardy. She was a little too slow at range against Hardy and lost some of the striking exchanges early. However, she did start having success in the clinch and with some grappling in top position. She started implementing those grappling exchanges a bit too late though.
Horth then beat Ivana Petrovic by an ugly split decision. Horth most recently lost to Miranda Maverick in a surprisingly competitive fight where Horth was outwrestled down the stretch to come up short on the judges scorecards.
Horth is a goofy fighter to describe. She is very big, standing at 5’7” and also looks like a strong girl. However, it is hard to even describe where her offense comes from. On the feet, I don’t consider her good, especially at distance. She is slow and a bit plodding and doesn’t have a ton of movement. She can go through the motions a little bit and wing some power punches occasionally. However, she looks a bit hittable to me and I have even seen her dropped on the regionals. I consider her a mildly competent striker who can outstrike bad fighters. However, she doesn’t have a ton of striking depth. She really underperformed my striking expectations against Petrovic.
Most of Horth’s offense (at least on the regionals) usually came from top position on the mat. She can hold position and looks semi decent on top. Although she gets top position in fights, I have only seen her land like four actual takedowns in her career lol.
She usually gets to top position off defending a shitty shot from her opponent and sprawling on top of them, or if her opponent falls over or something.
Horth’s takedown defense is a bit suspect to me. I have seen her get taken down off caught kicks at least five times in just a few fights. She is at least defending takedowns at 72 percent though. She does seem to know what she is doing in bottom position. She can generally retain guard and work to her feet. She looks competent as a pure BJJ player and can surely defend herself on the mat. She is a BJJ brown belt. However, she looked a bit sloppy against Petrovic on the mat losing position, getting taken down and controlled, etc.
Horth is just pretty low to mid level to me. She is big which will help her. I honestly think her size and ability to minimize the offense of her opponents is her biggest strength.
However, I question her offensive abilities as I don’t think she is that good of a striker or a real takedown threat. I do think her top game is okay as is her overall technical BJJ grappling game. I also think she is positionally strong in the clinch.
Horth will be taking on Vanessa Demopolous. I mostly consider Vanessa to be a BJJ player / opportunist. I don’t really think she has the striking or wrestling to win rounds in the UFC. However, she can close distance and hit hard occasionally on the feet.
Vanessa has some solid submissions (and a few submission wins in her career), but I don’t expect them to work as she fights decent grapplers. She arm barred Juarez after being dropped, so a random WMMA guard sub is always a possibility for her against bad fighters. She did at least land a couple of takedowns in her matchup against Maria Oliveira and got some control time, but it was against a low level opponent and I am not buying her offensive wrestling going forward against anyone competent.
Vanessa doesn’t really have good wrestling defense either so she can be taken down and she is going to struggle getting the fight down to the mat. In her Contender Series fight against Cory McKenna, she was taken down one time and controlled for 11:07 which is awful.
When Vanessa is on her back, she just plays guard, does not try to work up and goes for submissions, so she is a huge liability to lose rounds off her back. She defends takedowns at 25 percent which is awful. She does not have good TDD and she also just lays on her back so she is a recipe for disaster. We bet Talita Alencar against Vanessa in her last fight because of this and it was easy money.
I also do not like Vanessa’s striking. She lands 3.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.23 in return. She just does not have much defense and can be tagged clean. I do think she has a decent leg kick and power. She is capable of just going crazy and landing something big, and will at least be aggressive at times. However, I still don’t think her striking is suited to winning rounds. I do give her credit for her aggression and toughness though.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going to have to go with Horth here because of the size advantage alone. Horth has a 5 inch height and 7 inch reach advantage over Demopolous. Demopolous is also taking this on short notice and coming up from strawweight to flyweight. Horth is already a HUGE flyweight so the size advantage should be pretty drastic here.
The striking is going to be ugly. I think Horth is more technical, but I honestly think Demopolous’ volume and power could keep this competitive. It wouldn’t completely shock me if the rounds were close. I still lean Horth on the feet.
I do think Horth is a better wrestler. I specifically think Horth is harder to take down. Demopolous will probably struggle to land takedowns here where Horth could probably land takedowns without much issue. I also think Horth could just ride top position where I think Demopolous would struggle to maintain top position.
So overall I think Horth is probably more likely to get top time and she is just a bigger girl which should help her everywhere.
This is still a really low level fight though and Horth really struggles to land offense. Demopolous does have some paths to victory and a guard submission is always possible in low level fights. So I don’t completely count Demopolous out. However, Horth is the pick because of the size.
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On DraftKings, this is a weird fight too and Horth is priced up to 9.4k which feels gross.
In her two UFC wins, Horth has only scored 67 and 60 DK points, which is awful. Now she’s priced in a super elite tier this week with Wellmaker, Abdul-Malik, Sy and Bellato. It feels very likely Horth will be squeezed from this group and should rate out as a contrarian target overall.
However, everyone will see the obvious wrestling path for her which at least does give me pause. Demopoulos just allowed four takedowns and 12.5 minutes of control to Alencar, who granted is a better grappler than Horth, but not nearly as physical.
Horth could easily duplicate that in the sense of landing a takedown per round, and controlling Demopoulos for the whole round. She has 100+ point upside because of it.
Horth is also only +415 to win ITD which really sucks, and is drastically worse than everyone surrounding her. She isn’t much of a finisher and I’d guess she only wins by decision. But that wrestling style could give her one of the safer floors in this range, with reasonable upside well.
The easy answer is just to prioritize the other fighters in this range. When they get wins, the majority of time it will be ITD, and they will likely reach or surpass 100 points. You can argue Horth has more wrestling equity than any of them though, and she’s less costly.
I don’t mind Horth as a contrarian play I guess. It would be a real ballsy play, but Alencar just topped 100 points over Demopoulos, and if Horth gets 105ish, she might be able to contend for the optimal. I likely won’t get much exposure myself but with a larger portfolio, I don’t mind Horth as one place to be unique.
Demopoulos is priced down to 6.8k and she feels viable-ish.
This is low-level WMMA so I’m never surprised at upsets. Demopoulos may be able to outland Horth at distance and she may also have some dumb WMMA armbar equity from the bottom.
Horth has also been taken down by all four of her UFC opponents, so maybe Demopoulos can get on top. Realistically she’ll just get laid on and score very few points, so her floor still sucks.
I’d probably prioritize upside elsewhere. I do think Demopoulos is live to win but it doesn’t feel like a great matchup and her upside seems limited. She’s +550 to win ITD.
She’s an OK sprinkle for win equity when you need to fall below 7k, but I’d only label her a very low-end target and would probably rather chase finishing upside nearby.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Horth by Decision (Confidence=Medium)