UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 (6/7/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley
Fight Odds: Dvalishvili -283, O’Malley +231
Odds to Finish: +195
DraftKings Salaries: Dvalishvili 9k, O’Malley 7.2k
Weight Class: 135
We are set for a rematch in the bantamweight division as reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili will square off with Sean O’Malley for the second time in the past year.
O’Malley was the champion the last time these two met, and although I’ve been a supporter of his throughout his young UFC career, I was surprised to see the betting line remain competitive with Dvalishvili who is a generational hard-worker and persistent wrestler.
Merab is landing 5.89 takedowns per 15 minutes but with a 35% accuracy, which means he’s actually attempting 16 takedowns per 15 minutes, or more than 1 takedown per minute. He’s a physical beast with a never-ending cardio tank, and is extremely difficult to hit even when he’s at distance.
Defending one takedown from Merab is certainly possible, but good luck defending one takedown from Merab PER MINUTE for 15+ minutes consecutively.
At distance, Merab is still landing 4.5 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.5 per minute, which is a strong and positive ratio. He also defends strikes at 56 percent.
O’Malley is clearly the superior distance striker, and his metrics are awesome. He lands 6.70 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.48 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate. He carries one shot KO power and is an effective kicker as well.
What I love most about O’Malley is that he can strike in volume, moving forward and backward, and his cardio is really strong for the kind of pace that he puts up. We’ve seen him top out at 230 sig. strikes landed on multiple occasions.
This particular fight isn’t a strong one stylistically for O’Malley though because he’ll only be able to strike at distance when he can prove he can defend takedowns, and that has been a problem for him.
O’Malley isn’t a terrible grappler, and he’s a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, but he’s simply not a strong pure wrestler and Merab is one of the best wrestlers in the sport from a pacing and physicality standpoint.
O’Malley being able to defend takedowns from Merab for 25 minutes was always a major question mark in my mind, and something that I felt fairly confident would not happen. Could O’Malley do some damage in the process and hurt Merab? Possibly, but that won’t be an easy task.
In that first fight, Dvalishvili mostly cruised to a unanimous decision despite two of the scorecards appearing competitive on paper, and it’s not a surprise to see the champion’s betting line inflated north of -300 for the rematch.
Considering their first matchup was so recent, I think it’s important to give a brief round-by-round overview of how the fight played out.
Round 1: Both fighters spent the first couple of minutes trying to find their range, throwing a handful of single strikes that largely hit air. Eventually Merab was able to clinch and immediately secured a body lock, where he tripped O’Malley to the floor. He couldn’t maintain top control but he easily maintained clinch control and landed a handful of strikes as O’Malley tried to stand back up. With a minute left, Merab landed another easy single leg and although O’Malley scrambled up quickly, it allowed Merab to transition to a guillotine attempt. Dominant RD 1 for Merab (16/14 sig. strikes, 13/6 head strikes, 25/14 total strikes, 2/0 TDs, 1:20/0 CTRL)
Round 2: Both fighters spent the first couple of minutes range finding again, with little landing. Merab eventually shot for a double leg and secured it easily. The final three minutes of the round were spent with Merab on top of O’Malley landing ground strikes. O’Malley threatened with a triangle from the bottom once but committed a foul in the process. Total domination for Merab. (18/5 sig. strikes, 14/3 head strikes, 65/6 total strikes, 1/0 TDs, 3:21/0 CTRL)
Round 3: First couple of minutes were spent range finding with little action. Eventually Merab shot for a takedown and bull rushed his way into the clinch. Landed a few knees/strikes from the front headlock position but control didn’t last long. Final two minutes at range with O’Malley landing a couple of head strikes in the final seconds to get the crowd excited. Very close round with little separation. (17/11 sig. strikes, 6/7 head strikes, 25/11 total strikes, 0/0 TDs, 0.52/0 CTRL)
Round 4: Merab shoots and gets an easy double leg one minute in. Two minutes of Merab on top landing ground strikes although he got a minor cut in the process. O’Malley finally gets up but Merab still easily clinging to his back with a body lock. O’Malley basically cannot get free and just falls to his back eventually and gives up ground strikes for the rest of the round. Total domination for Merab. (21/6 sig. strikes, 20/4 head strikes, 74/7 total strikes, 1/0 TDs, 3:37/0 CTRL)
Round 5: Another easy double leg for Merab about one minute in. O’Malley scrambles up after a minute or so. He finally defends a single leg and lands a counter straight. With 1.5 minutes left O’Malley lands a body teep kick that looks like it might have hurt Merab. Lands another one and Merab shoots but fails to secure. One minute left and Merab just skating on the outside to kill the clock. O’Malley lands some distance strikes while he chases Merab but gives up another single leg takedown to end the round. Clear round for O’Malley. (10/11 sig. strikes, 2/2 head strikes, 25/11 total strikes, 2/0 TDs, 1:02/0 CTRL)
To summarize the above, I thought Merab mostly dominated this fight, despite there being two rounds which you can argue for O’Malley. The wrestling gap was massive between the two and I don’t see O’Malley being able to close that gap easily for the rematch.
At range, even though O’Malley is the better boxer, he simply was not able to land shots. Merab was fighting at kicking distance and moving his feet well, and O’Malley was afraid to kick because it would give Merab opportunities to land takedowns.
The only real success O’Malley had at any point over 25 minutes was when he landed the body kick in round five that hurt Merab. My best guess is that in the rematch, he will prioritize body shots this time around. He will have to know that he’s at a big disadvantage in the wrestling department and simply landing a KO shot won’t be easy. Landing to the body is a bigger target for him and it could slow Merab down. He might give up takedowns in the process but he has to be willing to accept that in order to land damage of his own.
While I do give O’Malley a chance to win the rematch, I just don’t think it’s a strong chance. His first level takedown defense is not good enough and Merab is a multi-faceted wrestler who can attack singles, doubles and from the clinch. Merab is also so much better as a control fighter and he’s consistent in landing strikes on the inside while O’Malley will be forced to defend.
O’Malley needs the fight at distance. Merab was allowing that to happen for 1-2 minutes at the start of most of the rounds, so that gives O’Malley some hope. He did defend a few takedowns here and there as well. He just needs to be far more impactful with his time at distance than he was in the first fight.
Merab was able to bank multiple dominant rounds and I think it’s pretty likely he can do so again. It’s hard not to project him to win the fight outright because of it, and there’s actually a decent chance this rematch looks even more dominant than the first fight.
O’Malley will need a big, momentum changing strike to win in the rematch, or he’ll need to level up his defensive wrestling severely. It’s not something I’d bet on, personally.
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On DraftKings, I expect Merab to be the most popular fighter on the entire slate at 9k, and I also consider him among the very best targets on the slate outright.
He’s simply a fantasy superstar, and has far exceeded value on countless occasions, contending for the optimal nearly every time he gets his hand raised.
Against O’Malley last time, Merab scored 137 DraftKings points, which is an elite number, and I definitely think he’s capable of replicating that. In his other two five-round wins, Merab has scored 120 and 167, and we’ve also seen him top 120 DK points on five other occasions in three-round matchups.
Given the style dynamic, if Merab is going to win, takedowns and control will come with it. He’s only +525 to win ITD but that won’t matter. He isn’t necessarily guaranteed 130+ but it seems extremely likely he will surpass 100 points, with baseline outcomes in the 120-130 range, and a semi-realistic shot to completely break the slate with a 150+ score.
Given that there are a fair number of total fights on this slate, and a large number of heavy favorites, Merab is slightly less valuable than on an average slate. There is a slightly better chance that some big favorites smash as well, and could compete with Merab. However, Merab is cheaper than most of them at 9k, and I still believe he has the best floor/ceiling combination on the entire slate.
We will have to compete with Merab being a super chalky public option on this slate, but he’s worth it at 9k. I’ll likely end up with heavy exposure, or close to it, and even if I was higher on the O’Malley side, I’d likely aim for moderate exposure due to his ceiling case for the price tag.
O’Malley at 7.2k has some viability as the main event underdog. If he wins, he’ll knock off a huge percentage of the chalk and potentially contend for the optimal lineup himself.
My big fear is that he still won’t be able to score a ton of points. In the last loss, O’Malley only put up 19 fantasy points, so a win would have equated to 49 points.
Granted, he’ll need to produce more offense to win, so his score in a win should be higher, but I still don’t think it’s very likely he can knock Merab out. I doubt he tries to wrestle.
And I don’t see the style dynamic changing much where suddenly O’Malley is landing 150 sig. strikes. The most realistic scenario for him may actually be to just squeak out a few close rounds where he does some damage and Merab doesn’t have insane control.
I fear that in that kind of win, we could see O’Malley only land 80 significant strikes in a decision, and put up a score in the low 60s. Perhaps that would be optimal at 7.2k on a slate with few reasonable dogs, but it’s not a lock.
I still think having exposure to O’Malley is fine. He’s an OK secondary target due to pricing and historic upside. This is not a good matchup for him to score and he’s only +300 to win ITD.
Given that he’ll still be popular as a big name, I probably am aiming for near field or underweight exposure at best to O’Malley. If you really like him, you can end up with more, but I’d probably rather chase some lesser owned, higher upside targets on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dvalishvili by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
Fight Odds: Harrison -755, Pena +516
Odds to Finish: -210
DraftKings Salaries: Harrison 9.7k, Pena 6.5k
Weight Class: 135
It is time for a new Queen to sit upon the women’s bantamweight throne, as Kayla Harrison will finally challenge for a UFC title against current belt holder Julianna Pena.
Harrison is 18-1 professionally at age 34, and she’s a two-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo, taking home those titles in 2012 and 2016.
She then transitioned to a Mixed Martial Arts career where she fought in PFL from 2018-2023, winning the women’s lightweight championship for $1 Million on multiple occasions.
Toward the end of her run, Harrison finally lost a decision for her third championship to Larissa Pacheco, a strong opponent whom Harrison had beaten twice already. It largely signaled the end of her interest in PFL, but the primary issue with Harrison signing with the UFC was that they didn’t house a women’s featherweight division, let alone a lightweight division where very few women on planet earth are willing to compete.
So Harrison made the decision to drop two weight classes from 155 to 135 in an attempt to become the champion in the UFC at bantamweight. She made her UFC debut against Holly Holm in April, 2024 and looked phenomenal, beating Holm up for a round and a half before locking up a submission.
Most recently, Harrison fought Ketlen Vieira for a No. 1 contender spot, and Harrison comfortably won a decision, landing some takedowns and beating Vieira up from top position. Though Vieira defended well at times and limited Harrison to two takedowns landed on eight attempts, Harrison did ultimately secure nearly eight minutes of control and landed plenty of ground-and-pound from the top.
Harrison will now face Julianna Pena for the belt, and I expect her game plan will be much of the same. Toss Pena to the mat, and beat her up from top position.
It’s really the only thing Harrison is good at, though she’s arguably the best in the world in that aspect. She’s obviously an elite Judo player, and she’s a fairly strong wrestler as well who can shoot some standard double legs. She’s a physical force and a menace from top position where she can land brutal elbows, and attempt the occasional submission.
Most fighters in this sport will not be able to compete with the pure physicality of Harrison, and that, combined with her wrestling/grappling skills will continue to give Harrisson a clear path to victory.
While Harrison fights at distance, she is much more vulnerable though. She doesn’t have a large sample of fight time at distance but her technique is pretty basic. She carries some power but she will mostly throw single strikes and I wouldn’t label her a consistent minute winner.
If Harrison is ever forced to strike, she could very well lose rounds. She was outlanded 11 to 9 at distance by Vieira, in a round where she couldn’t establish ground control.
I also think there are some cardio concerns with Harrison, in the sense that she is a super physical fighter cutting a ton of weight. She’ll need to use energy with her style, and that can wear her down.
I didn’t think she looked great against Pacheco in her lone loss and she struggled to secure ground control. Pacheco is big and physical too though, and a competent grappler. Harrison still survived and made the fight competitive but I wouldn’t be stunned if at some point, Harrison got tired in another competitive affair.
I highly doubt Julianna Pena will give that to her, though I am not one to sing the praises of Pena very often so perhaps I’m not the best person to ask.
I’m not a fan of Pena as a person, and it translates to her fighting game as well where she is very poorly processed.
Pena is a pest. She can grapple, and she can strike, but she’s not particularly good at anything. She shockingly upset Amanda Nunes in 2021 to earn the belt, as Nunes gassed out completely while going to war with Pena on the feet. Pena just survived some early brawling exchanges and had more firepower, and she was able to finish an exhausted Nunes by the second round.
In the rematch, Nunes beat her up badly though. Nunes dropped her multiple times and took her down six times in a pretty one-sided affair.
My biggest issue with Pena historically is that she cannot defend takedowns to save her life. Over 11 tracked fights, Pena is defending takedowns at 23 percent which is atrocious. She just doesn’t have the technique or balance or physicality to defend them.
She is a good submission grappler though, and she can throw up armbars and triangles from her back. If fighters just mind their Ps and Qs, I don’t consider that type of offense to be very dangerous, but Pena will at least test people at times. She struggles to get back up to her feet though and just yielded 12 minutes of control to Nunes.
On the feet, Pena mostly throws flurries. She lands 3.25 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.53 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. At distance, she’s landing 5.4 strikes per minute while absorbing 5.1.
I don’t think Pena is very powerful or technical, and it’s a lot of arm punches. However, she’s a willing striker in that sense and can annoy opponents or perhaps wear them down if they have poor cardio.
Pena is not a good fighter and it’s pretty sad she’s the champion of this division. But she can functionally do things on the feet and on the mat which is apparently enough to be the best in the world on any given day. I just hate her round-winning process and I consider this matchup against Harrison to be ultra difficult.
Mostly, I’d be stunned if Pena could defend takedowns. I think there’s a pretty good chance Harrison takes Pena down effortlessly early in the fight and beats the crap out of her from top position. I really wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a TKO stoppage.
There’s also a good chance in my mind that Harrison can land takedowns in 3+ rounds, control Pena while Pena simply survives, and allows Harrison to win a clear decision.
If Pena can defend takedowns or scramble free then this is an entirely different conversation. I would favor Pena on the feet outright over Harrison, though I don’t think Harrison is in a ton of danger there, I trust Pena more on a per minute basis.
I also think Pena could randomly submit Harrison with an armbar or something from the back. Harrison should be sound defensively there coming from a Judo background, but you never know. I’ve seen Harrison put in a triangle before.
Otherwise, Pena’s hope is that Harrison gasses, which I do think is possible, but it would really have to come from Pena defending takedowns. If Harrison gets a bit tired, she’s still going to clinch up and try to take Pena down, and I’ve seen nothing to suggest Pena can defend.
So my best guess is that Harrison is able to outmatch Pena physically, take her down quite easily and control her from top position. She might have to defend the occasional sub but she can easily win minutes with ground-and-pound. Pena is a decent survivor so that ability will keep her alive, but I can’t imagine her winning rounds at a consistent rate without Harrison death gassing, and at this point I trust Harrison enough to be able to find those takedowns with consistency.
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On DraftKings, Harrison is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.7k, and I’m curious as to whether the public will be excited to play her.
In two UFC wins, Harrison has scored 113 and 85, with the latter being a real bust at 9.8k. Granted, neither of those were five-round fights.
More importantly, neither of those fights took place against Pena, who Harrison will have a shot to totally smash on the mat with takedowns and strikes. I think she has tremendous upside in this matchup, probably only surpassed by Dvalishvili in the main event.
The difference I suppose is that there are many more outcomes for Harrison than Merab. Harrison could win ITD early given her -175 ITD line, and potentially underperform in that way. We saw her score a 2nd round sub in her debut and only put up 113 DK points. While that’s a strong result, I would probably bet against it being optimal on this slate at 9.7k.
So honestly, you can make a realistic case to not push for heavy exposure to Harrison. She is just so expensive, and you’re getting several elite favorites priced below who are possibly more likely to be optimal given the lack of underdogs with win equity.
On the other hand, I mean.. I do think she could put a complete beating on Pena. I’m not convinced it happens, but Harrison could land multiple takedowns early and hundreds of ground strikes, with tons of control. If she scores a mid-round finish, she could easily top 120 DK points.
I personally do prefer her straight up over every single fighter on the slate besides Merab, though she may not fit into every construction. I don’t trust a handful of these top-end targets and some of them are early KO or bust anyways.
Harrison should score well in a win here given her style, and I think the most likely outcome is a win gives her one of the better scores on the slate. I won’t force her in, but I do like Harrison this week and if I can afford her, I will probably play her.
Pena at 6.5k is just a low-end target.
She’ll have some viability in a five-round fight, and clearly she has upside in a win. It’s just hard to recommend a ton of exposure given she’s a heavy dog and +750 ITD. Plus, the control and wrestling advantages clearly go to Harrison.
A late comeback win would still give Pena a decent result, so if you want to include her in your portfolio, that’s totally fine. I just only consider a very low-end, dart throw type of play given the lack of win equity on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Harrison by Arm-Triangle, RD 3 (Confidence=High)
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
Fight Odds: Pyfer -378, Gastelum +297
Odds to end ITD: -130
DraftKings Salaries: Pyfer 9.2k, Gastelum 7k
Weight Class: 185
We should have a fun middleweight scrap here between future contender Joe Pyfer and longtime veteran Kelvin Gastelum.
Pyfer is 13-3 professionally with nine wins by knockout and one win by submission, and he’s won each of his four UFC victories inside the distance, most recently finishing Marc-Andre Barriualt in the second round.
Pyfer is a good athlete, and a physical one. He’s been able to showcase his power both on the regional scene and in the UFC, which I would consider one of his better attributes.
He’s also pretty well-rounded. Despite the striking success, Pyfer is a base grappler who can wrestle well, and carries submission upside on the mat. We saw him take Alhassan down a few times, get on top, and lock up the arm-triangle in round two in 2023.
However, when Pyfer finally took a real step up in competition in his first main event against Jack Hermansson, he lost.
Pyfer still performed well in that fight, winning the first two rounds before tiring out and losing the final three. Hermansson is a veteran as well and played a much better long game than Pyfer, outlanding him 121 to 92 in total.
It wasn’t the kind of performance that made me think Pyfer is a fraud, or anything like that, but I did pick him to lose as a big favorite so I was pleased.
At the very least, Gastelum is the best fighter Pyfer has faced since Hermansson, and I’ll be curious to see how he deals with the challenge.
Gastelum has been around forever, making his UFC debut in 2013 when he beat Uriah Hall to win The Ultimate Fighter. He’s had a very strong career overall, nearly beating Adesanya for the title in 2019, but he’s also had some rough patches as well.
Primarily, it’s Gastelum’s weight. He is not a middleweight and I do not like him fighting at middleweight. He is 5’9” tall and will give up five inches in height and another four inches in reach to Pyfer. Frankly, he’s probably a lightweight and his inability to cut down is a major detriment to Gastelum at this stage of his career.
Still, despite inconsistencies in and out of the cage, Gastelum is pretty skillful and is coming off a strong win over Daniel Rodriguez, where he landed 112 sig. strikes and another four takedowns. Rodriguez landed 127 sig. strikes of his own in that matchup.
It’s more volume than we’ve seen from Gastelum in a long time. Historically, he averages 3.74 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.48 with a 57 percent defensive rate. In other decisions, we’ve seen Gastelum only land 83, 89 (five rounds), 62 (five rounds) and 38 sig. strikes.
Gastelum carries some power but he’s not a major knockout threat. His best attribute may honestly be his durability, as he’s eaten some massive shots and survived. He famously got knocked down four times by Adesanya and nearly won the fight.
Gastelum also comes from a wrestling background, where he is capable. He lands 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 59 percent which is poor. It will just come down to the level of his opponent that will determine his ground success.
He fought Sean Brady pretty recently and gave up five takedowns, and was submitted in the third round. Robert Whittaker took him down four times as well. However against randoms like Ian Heinisch and Daniel Rodriguez, Gastelum can show some takedown upside of his own.
As far as this matchup, I have to lean toward Pyfer who is the true middleweight. He will have a significant size advantage, and he’s a better overall athlete and more physical than Gastelum.
Pyfer has enough boxing skills to compete with Gastelum in general, but with the additional size advantages, he should be able to pick at Gastelum with his jab and leg kicks, and Gastelum will likely struggle to get inside.
If for some reason Pyfer does allow Gastelum to pressure and get inside, he could be vulnerable. That’s where Gastelum’s power can show up, but I have a difficult time seeing Gastelum land lots of strikes here, as Pyfer has a clear power edge and may hurt him.
Also, I think Pyfer has more wrestling upside of the two. I’m not sure that he will pursue it aggressively but I think Pyfer could land a few takedowns, and he may have submission upside.
Gastelum probably cannot take Pyfer down but even if he does once or twice, I don’t think he can hold Pyfer down for any period of time.
Gastelum also has more proven cardio than Pyfer which I suppose could play a role in an extended fight, but I generally believe Pyfer will be fine in three rounds. Maybe he’ll slow down towards the end but I’m still not sold Gastelum can find a way to produce much offense.
I’m taking Pyfer here, probably to win a decision. He’ll have mild finishing equity both on the feet and on the mat but Gastelum is super tough. Gastelum is also live to win an extended fight or via a random power shot, but I think the size and athletic gaps will be too much for him to cover.
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On DraftKings, Pyfer is priced up to 9.2k, and he’s somewhat viable though he won’t rate out super well.
Really, the issue is that Pyfer likely needs a finish. He himself is a finisher and profiles as the type to secure early finishes, but Gastelum has never been knocked out in 28 pro fights. That’s why Pyfer is only +115 to win ITD here as opposed to something better.
The grappling aspect for Pyfer is interesting though. He may have significant ground advantages if he can get on top, but it’s honestly up in the air as to how much he’ll choose to wrestle. I think it’s fine to play into that aspect, hoping he will grapple which will give him more paths to score and more paths to finish. But it’s also worth acknowledging he may just box and therefore will be ultra boom or bust.
I think that Pyfer is a fine play, though the risk is with so many heavy favorites, you could be sacrificing finishing equity to target him moderately. I’d just feel so much more comfortable targeting him against an opponent who has been knocked out before, as opposed to one with proven durability.
Still, I do think Pyfer could score a knockdown on pure early power. And with the question marks on the grappling side, it’s enough to bring me on him a little bit at a reasonable price tag compared to other heavy favorites.
I will want to spread my exposure out here so I don’t expect to be overweight to Pyfer, but I’d consider him a fine upside target based on his finishing profile.
Gastelum at 7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot, but this is a tough range.
I do think he could win but I am expecting him to lose. The size disadvantage really bothers me and I think it will hinder his game. Catching Pyfer and knocking him out is possible but not something I’d want to bet on. Gastelum is only +775 to win ITD.
And I don’t think he has real grappling equity here compared to his last matchup, so I don’t want to bet on that either.
Gastelum is one of the best real life fighters in this bottom tier, which has some value in itself, but I don’t love the matchup nor path to a ceiling for him, and so I’ll aim to be quite light on Gastelum overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pyfer by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
Fight Odds: Mix -180, Bautista +154
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Mix 8.5k, Bautista 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an extremely interesting matchup here between Patchy Mix and Mario Bautista.
This is also the highly anticipated UFC debut for Patchy Mix who is the reigning but now former Bellator bantamweight champion. He recently signed with the UFC after PFL (who recently acquired Bellator) released him from his contract upon his request.
Mix is 31 years old and is 20-1 professionally. He has beaten good competition including Kyoji Horiguchi, Raufeon Stots, Sergio Pettis, and Magomed Magomedov. Magomedov has a win over Petr Yan and I think highly of Magomedov.
Mix’s bread and butter is his grappling, and 13 of his 20 wins have come by submission. He is one of the best back takers in the sport, right up there with guys like Aljamain Sterling. He really is a back taking specialist.
Mix is long at 5’11” and he likes to use that length and leverage in his takedowns and back taking sequences. He loves pushing his opponents against the cage and going to doubles / singles. From there, he has a nasty back take and body triangle game. He can control opponents for entire rounds. He is actually more physical than you might realize and he is also deceivingly big. He just has a long frame.
Mix is also an elite submission grappler and BJJ black belt, and can submit opponents ruthlessly. He has submitted a lot of legit guys including Sergio Pettis and Magomed Magomedov. His RNC from the body triangle is very good. He also has a nasty guillotine that he sets opponents up with and baits them into. He used this guillotine in his submission over Magomedov in their first fight which was impressive as Magomedov is a legit grappler and wrestler. Mix also nearly submitted Magomedov with the same guillotine in the second fight as well. I think Mix is a threat to submit nearly anyone.
The main issue with Mix is that he is a bit limited. His back taking and submission game is very good. However, the other aspects of his game are more so serviceable than actually good.
Mix’s striking isn’t great. It isn’t awful though. He can walk opponents down and use a jab to land on opponents. He also has some good stabbing kicks to the body to clear distance. He does have a super random highlight knee knockout win over Raufeon Stots but I consider that a bit random and generally don’t consider Mix super effective as a striker. He can also be touched up a bit and isn’t all that skilled defensively. He can lose striking fights in general.
I still do think Mix is competent standing and he uses his striking mostly to set up his takedowns against the cage. He is also very tough and durable and will come forward and make his opponents uncomfortable. However, he can lose fights if his grappling gets shut down and he gets stuck at range.
Mix also can be held down to a degree on the mat. However, he is tricky and most opponents won’t even want to engage him in those positions.
I do think Mix’s takedowns can sometimes be a bit limited. His takedowns in open space aren’t as great and he can shoot some sloppy shots. Sometimes he gets a bit tired if his takedowns are failing too. Mix will also sometimes strike for too long in some fights when he should be shooting more takedowns. So there are some chinks in Mix’s game in general.
Overall, I do respect Mix’s game though. He is a tricky takedown artist and back taker and is extremely dangerous with his back takes. He can submit anyone if he gets their back and he can probably find the back against most guys. His issue will just be that he is in danger of losing fights if his opponents can avoid the backtakes.
Mix will be taking on Mario Bautista who is coming off a controversial win against Jose Aldo where Bautista basically avoided striking exchanges by obsessively clinching Aldo vs the cage. Fans were very upset with Bautista’s technical tactics in that fight but he did what he had to do to win. I don’t have much of a problem with it.
Bautista is a solid fighter. He has sneakily won seven straight fights.
Capable of fighting out of both stances, Bautista is kind of a freestyle fighter. He will strike a bit and grapple a bit. He has really good cardio which is probably his greatest strength.
Bautista is a competent striker. He lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.91 in return. I don’t think Bautista is particularly skilled on the feet, but he is decent and generally puts on a high pace. He landed 129 significant strikes against Jin Soo Son in three rounds which was impressive.
Bautista has had other fights like against Miles Johns where he fought at a much lower pace. However, I generally expect Bautista to fight with a pretty high work rate. He can also clinch up, and he is good at mixing in elbows in the clinch. He did this a lot in his fight against Jay Perrin.
Bautista is also a decent grappler. Bautista lands 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of landing takedowns and riding position against weak grapplers. I don’t consider him a great offensive wrestler though and decent scramblers should avoid being taken down or controlled by him. He is skilled though. He has submitted a few opponents in the UFC.
Bautista defends takedowns at 66 percent which is decent and he scrambles up pretty well when taken down. There are split second opportunities to take his back though and he has been submitted once in his UFC debut against Cory Sandhagen. I overall do consider him a decent scrambler though. He can be taken down against the cage though.
Overall, Bautista is just a solid, well-rounded fighter. He can strike at a high pace and he can grapple pretty well. He won’t gas and doesn’t have many holes in general. His main issue is that he isn’t elite anywhere which will likely hinder his chances to ever really contend for a belt.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is ultra competitive and I actually do think Bautista has the game to give Mix issues.
Look, this whole fight is likely going to depend on whether or not Mix can get takedowns and get the back.
I am pretty confident Mix can get Bautista down. Bautista just gets taken down against the fence often and that is Mix’s game. Mix will also be very hard to finish. So Mix will likely have 15 minutes to take Bautista down, and I do think Mix will land a few takedowns here.
I also think Mix will have some windows to take the back. I don’t think it will actually be easy though and if Mix gives Bautista just a couple of windows to escape, I do think Bautista will scramble back up.
On the feet, I think Bautista is probably better. So Bautista could honestly stuff some takedowns or scramble up from bottom and win a striking based decision. It really wouldn’t surprise me and I nearly picked it to happen.
I still just think Mix only needs one back take to really leave his mark on this fight. Bautista goes to all fours and I do think Mix will probably get the back at least once. If Mix gets the back, I honestly think Bautista could get submitted here. I really respect Mix’s RNC and submission game. We have seen Bautista submitted before and put in some bad spots. We have also seen Mix submit superior wrestlers compared to Bautista like Magomedov.
Mix could also just get the back and hold a body triangle for a round similar to what he did to Horiguchi. So Mix may have a higher ceiling in this matchup as I think he is more likely to win inside the distance being the better submission grappler or get a dominant round with top control.
I still do think Mix’s actual wrestling game is limited though and I would favor Bautista in a pure striking fight. I do think Mix can compete on the feet, but I don’t trust Mix on the feet at all. I really do think Bautista can win this if he can minimize the grappling of Mix.
Gosh man I just think Mix will get the back once though. That could swing this fight in his favor so I am going to go with Mix. This is a really interesting fight and the dynamic is clear. I am just going to pick Mix because I think he has a higher ceiling in this fight.
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On DraftKings, I have some interest in the matchup and I’d consider it one of my most anticipated real-life matchups as well.
Mix will be the preferred target at 8.5k and he could be popular, coming over to the UFC as a former champion in Bellator. Plus, he has the grappling advantage in this matchup and in general, which should give him a solid floor/ceiling combination in wins.
I really do think Bautista is live to win though. He’s the better striker and I consider Mix somewhat vulnerable on the feet. He won’t get hit a ton but he doesn’t react very well to strikes, and Bautista should clear him on volume.
I also don’t love that Mix gets labored late in fights, and I think he’s more one-dimensional than I had hoped after watching his tape. I doubt he will become UFC champion.
Regardless, if Mix wins, it will come from takedowns, control, and maybe a submission. My gut feeling is that he’ll probably need the submission to be optimal though, as he won’t land tons of takedowns and Bautista may scramble up well enough.
Mix is only +150 to win ITD which does concern me. He will still score OK for the price, but I think Mix is a 2-4 takedown type as opposed to an 7-10 takedown type, and I’m not sold he’ll land enough strikes on the mat to get to the optimal without the finish.
At 8.5k, I’m still willing to take chances because I do think he will take Bautista down early. From there, he could take the back and score a RNC. So a RD 1 RNC is quite possible.
I’m not looking to be much overweight on Mix though, as I have other concerns and he could be chalky. I like Bautista as a fighter. Grappling just scores so well though that you can’t ignore Mix at 8.5k and I think he’s a solid secondary target at worst, given his grappling upside.
Bautista at 7.7k can definitely win this fight but I have much bigger concerns with his fantasy potential.
My real issue is that Mix won’t engage a ton on the feet, and he probably will take Bautista down. So we could be looking at a situation where Bautista has landed 10-15 strikes after RD 1. And I’m not sold or betting on a Bautista KO either way.
Bautista is only +675 to win ITD which is really poor, and 7.7k doesn’t save enough salary to use a more stars/scrubs construction. I’m not sure I’d be happy with 70-80 points in a win, which I think is most likely for Bautista.
I only consider Bautista a low-end secondary target this week. I do think he has win equity. I’m not sold he has much fantasy upside and at 7.7k, that’s going to keep my exposure fairly limited.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mix by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Vincente Luque vs. Kevin Holland
Fight Odds: Holland -270, Luque +222
Odds to Finish: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Holland 8.8k, Luque 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle of two UFC veterans here between Kevin Holland and Vicente Luque.
Holland has had a rough stretch but he got back on track in a bizarre win over Gunnar Nelson’s earlier this year.
Holland thrives as a striker. He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.10 in return. Those are solid metrics.
In pure striking fights, Holland is quite good. Holland is very skilled and dangerous as a striker. He has crisp kicks and straight punches, and is very relaxed and always seems to find his target. He also stands at 6’3” with an 81” reach which is a big frame for welterweight.
Holland’s issue has always been his defensive grappling, and more specifically, his wrestling. He defends takedowns at 54 percent and can be held on his back. I do think his defensive wrestling has improved and he has learned to scramble back up to his feet at times. However, that didn’t matter in his last two losses. I still do think De Ridder and Dolidze just had massive size advantages on him though. Still even Nelson had grappling success vs Holland so I will always be skeptical of Holland going against grapplers.
Holland is actually a decent submission grappler. Once he is taken down, he can retain guard and isn’t in a ton of danger. His issue is generally being controlled or just outsized.
Holland is just a fun, striking action fighter. He is dangerous and has some skill and volume. He also has good cardio and is generally a tough guy.
One thing I do hate about Holland is how complicit he is losing fights. In his losses to Dolidze and De Ridder, he was laughing and hugging his opponents after and cracking jokes. I am not saying go be a sore loser and throw a fit after a loss. It is fine to congratulate your opponent with a handshake or whatever. I am all about losing with class. However, I just think Holland’s laughing and being so cool with losing shows the mentality of a loser. It is a terrible mindset to have in any area of life and especially in fighting.
Holland will be taking on Vicente Luque. Luque is a well-rounded fighter, but he is primarily a striker. He lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute, and he has power. He is always live to win striking fights because of his come forward, high output, and big power style. He also has great calf kicks which can completely shut down his opponents. A good example of this was his fight against Randy Brown. He ate Brown’s legs alive.
Luque is very hittable though. He absorbs 5.22 significant strikes per minute and he only defends strikes at 52 percent. So he can lose rounds on the feet.
Luque is also a solid submission grappler. He is a brown belt in BJJ, and he has six submission wins in the UFC, all of them being a front headlock type of choke (Anaconda or D’Arce). He doesn’t offensively wrestle much though as he only lands 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes. So you can’t expect him to win fights often with takedowns and control.
However, Luque did randomly land eight takedowns against RDA which was incredibly random. I liked that he showed a new path to victory in that fight but he didn’t look great overall. Luque has okay defensive wrestling. He defends takedowns at 62 percent and has okay scrambling ability.
Luque is pretty durable but I am overall concerned that he is past his prime. He was knocked out for his first time against Geoff Neal somewhat recently. He then looked absolutely terrible against Joaquin Buckley and kind of gave up and conceded to a ground and pound loss. I am not saying he is completely washed and he did bounce back with a recent win over Themba Gorimbo. However, I am just concerned he is a little past it and I don’t like how he has been getting hurt more often.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Luque has some potential wrestling upside. We have just seen Holland lose wrestling based fights so often. After seeing Luque outwrestle RDA, I can’t completely rule that path to victory for Luque out. I still do lean against it though. Holland is big for this weight class and Luque generally doesn’t even wrestle often anyway. I at least wanted to mention that avenue for Luque though.
I generally think the winner of this fight will be the winner of the striking exchanges. I just don’t trust Luque on the feet as much at this point of his career. Even RDA was getting the better of the striking exchanges against Luque. Neal also lit Luque up. My guess is Holland’s length and athleticism will be the difference. I think Holland will get ahead on the striking totals and potentially even hurt Luque.
I still do think Luque can potentially hurt Holland. He does have a ton of power. He could probably strike competitively too and maybe mix in a takedown or threaten with a front choke. So Luque winning wouldn’t be shocking. He has some ways to have success in this fight. Overall though, I think the most likely outcome is that these guys will strike and Holland will get the better of the exchanges so Holland is the pick for me.
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On DraftKings, this is a fairly interesting fight as it should be fun with a lot of action.
I can’t say I feel comfortable with Holland approaching -300 to win though. He’s simply not a trustworthy fighter and Luque is very experienced and well-rounded. I do ultimately lean toward Holland to win.
Holland is priced up to 8.8k this week and will need a finish. I think it’s possible. Luque’s loss to Buckley was stunning in how he essentially gave up in the middle of the fight. It makes me think that if Holland hurts Luque, he can find the finish as I don’t think Luque has it in him to fight through adversity any more.
Holland is -135 to win ITD this week which is pretty strong, and it definitely puts him in play. I actually don’t mind him. Luque gets hit a lot and has 120+ sig. strikes in several three-round fights. Holland is dangerous and could hurt him too. While 8.8k is expensive, he will fit easier in mid-range builds which I like.
I’m not going to be super heavy on Holland but I do like him this week for finishing equity in an action fight. If it extends and he busts while landing 100 strikes in a close fight, I won’t be shocked. But Luque has some red flags in his profile and I don’t mind chasing some finishing equity here.
Luque at 7.4k is viable as well. I would consider him a tier above the bottom grouping who are just super heavy dogs with weak paths to win. Luque can land strikes at a high rate, he can land with power, and he’s a good grappler. Holland is also weird and throws away fights sometimes.
I doubt Luque actually goes to his wrestling though and I don’t think he will submit Holland. He probably needs an action fight on the feet where rounds are close, or he randomly gets a KD.
For the price, Luque is a fine low-end secondary target and he’s +350 to win ITD which is OK. I don’t love him though. I will mix him into my portfolio but I’m not aiming to be much above the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holland by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van
Fight Odds: Van -646, Silva +458
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Van 9.3k, Silva 6.9k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I have really enjoyed watching the rise of Joshua Van. He is now 6-1 in the UFC with his one loss being a 3rd round knockout loss to Charles Johnson.
Van is a great pace fighter. I like the dosage of strikes by Van. He is a volume striker and will strike with a very high pace for 15 straight minutes. He lands 8.10 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.24 in return, and defends strikes at 60 percent. Van is overall just a skilled striker. He mixes up kicks with his boxing and he works the body well with his hands. He is going to continue to have a lot of success with his striking in this division.
Van also seems pretty durable. He was knocked out by Charles Johnson, but I have never really seen him hurt other than that. Him getting knocked out there does make me a bit nervous, but I generally think Van is a tough guy. I just feel like when you fight with the pace that Van does, you will get knocked out randomly from time to time.
I have also seen Van mix in takedowns here and there. He isn’t a good offensive wrestler, but he honestly isn’t bad and he can get good positions on the mat after tiring his opponents.
Van’s defensive grappling looked like an issue early in his career. He lost a little over three years ago on the regionals. He was generally outwrestled and then submitted by a RNC in the third round.
Van was only 20 years old in that fight and he has clearly improved though. He looked way better defending takedowns against Durden. His most recent performance against Tsuruya was incredible. His TDD looked so good in that fight. Before the fight, I thought Tsuruya had the chain wrestling to potentially give Van issues. However, Van just looked great. He faced 21 takedown attempts and was barely controlled at all. His TDD is clearly very good now and he is defending takedowns at a solid 80 percent.
Overall, Van is a real threat in this division. He has the volume and pace to give anyone issues. He has also developed the TDD to keep fights standing where he thrives.
Van will be taking on Bruno Silva. Silva was last seen in action getting the crap kicked out of him by Manel Kape. He was on a four fight winning streak before that matchup though.
Silva is generally a striker who will also mix in some takedowns.
Silva is an okay striker, but he doesn’t have the best volume either. He lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.08 in return. He defends strikes at 52 percent. He is an okay striker with some decent hands and moderate power. I still don’t totally love his output but I do think he hits kind of hard.
I just consider Silva serviceable on the feet. He is nothing great but is alright and semi-dangerous. He will struggle winning rounds against any volume strikers though.
As a grappler, Silva is decent. He lands 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about eight takedowns per fight. He actually landed three takedowns on Dvorak and four on Tagir Ulanbekov. So he is capable of landing takedowns in this division.
Silva also generally seems like a tough guy and I consider his durability decent. He can be hurt but he is tough.
I also consider Silva a decent defensive wrestler. He defends takedowns at 60 percent but is physical and can work up and reverse position. He is a decent submission grappler as well.
The issue is Silva doesn’t thrive anywhere. He is just a serviceable fighter in all areas and that is about it.
As far as this matchup goes, I don’t think Silva can consistently take and hold Van down. So we will likely get a striking fight here.
On the feet, Van is the obvious favorite. Van should volume Silva up pretty easily and I wouldn’t be surprised by a finish in the second or third round via volume and accumulation. I just don’t think Silva can keep up with the striking pace of this guy.
I think Silva’s best chance to win is just catching Van. Silva does hit hard and Van has been knocked out before. Van also can be hit just because of the pace and aggression that he fights with. I still don’t think it happens all that often though as Van is generally tough and I don’t think Silva is a major power threat. So my guess is that Van just kind of gets his striking fight and pulls away.
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On DraftKings, Van is really expensive at 9.3k but he’s trending as one of the biggest favorites on the slate and pushing -700 to win.
I honestly love Van as a prospect right now. Perhaps he has surpassed that prospect tag, but I now think he’s a future champion in this division and I expect him to become the champion sooner than later. Maybe I’m too bullish, but his takedown defense looked drastically improved, his striking is elite and his pacing is elite. I love that he builds in fights and five-rounders will suit him even better. This is only a three-rounder though.
And that is the general challenge with Van in this matchup. He’s 9.3k. He probably won’t be wrestling. Volume will be strong but he’s going to have to compete with Harrison and Merab. He almost certainly needs a pacing KO.
I do think that outcome is possible, if not likely. The early round/s will likely be competitive-ish as Silva is a fine striker and can wrestle some. He could not keep up with the pace of Kape and I don’t think he can keep up with Van either. Van could very realistically score a late finish.
In wins, Van has put up 69, 100, 113, 135, 106 and 80, which is solid. It shows reasonable upside, especially in a decision. The 135 score was a late 2nd round KO which is probably his best chance to contend for the optimal.
This situation is tough because I’m straight up prioritizing Merab. Harrison is a better play although she’s more expensive. Other fighters in this range can score finishes too. I really don’t think Van has to be a priority at 9.3k, and you can argue if he’s chalk, underweight is the right approach.
Van is only +155 to win ITD but if he does win ITD, I expect him to put up a very strong score, and then he could potentially knock a Harrison type off the optimal lineup due to pricing. At the very least, when you can’t pay up above 9.3k, I think Van is an excellent target.
There are bust risks in an extended fight which will limit my exposure, and generally I think spreading out is the correct play. But Van will rate out well from a floor/ceiling standpoint and I think he’s a quality target with a high ceiling, albeit perhaps not the easiest path to reaching that ceiling.
Silva at 6.7k is a fine low-end target but that’s all he is.
There is some variance in striking exchanges and Silva isn’t a terrible striker. He just can’t really keep up a high pace. So he’ll probably need to hurt Van badly which is a tough outcome.
He could also land 1-3 takedowns, but I doubt he can do anything with it. So really, he likely needs a KO or two close rounds.
The problem now is Silva is +425 to win ITD, so how much can you realistically invest? It doesn’t feel smart to chase a lot of exposure.
I do think Silva could win and has some upside, but he’s only a dart throw in tournaments. In that sense, I don’t mind a couple shots as he should carry leverage too, but it doesn’t feel wise to make him a priority at all.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Van by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong
Fight Odds: Cong -498, Silva +372
Odds to Finish: -120
DraftKings Salaries: Cong 9.1k, Silva 7.1k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a bit of a banger here between Wang Cong and Ariane da Silva (former Lipski). These ladies can crack and we should have a potentially fun striking fight here.
I actually have liked what I have seen from Cong thus far in her career. She bounced back from an embarrassing upset loss to Gabriella Fernandes with a dominant decision win against Bruna Brasil, whom she outlanded 103-31 in significant strikes. Cong looked good in that fight.
I honestly thought Cong looked good in the Fernandes fight until she was finished. She outlanded Fernandes 46-18 in significant strikes and was winning cleanly. She then got hurt on the feet and submitted because she was badly rocked. It wasn’t a great look, but I do think it was a bit random.
Cong is a bit of a blue chip prospect. Cong is 32 years old and 7-1 professionally. She comes from a deep boxing and kickboxing pedigree and actually has a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko in 2015. Kickboxing is her base and what she thrives at, and she has generally won her mma fights by outstriking her opponents.
Cong’s striking is good. She has a good jab and good low kicks and seems defensively sound despite her one loss to Fernandes. She throws in combination. She manages range well and can fight three rounds in her sleep.
She didn’t look to have a ton of one punch power, but she did sleep Leonardo. Leonardo is terrible though with no durability. I generally think if Cong wins by knockout, it will more so come from accumulation or a skill discrepancy more than anything.
Overall, Cong is a good prospect. She can strike for 15 minutes and is very technical as a kickboxer with great volume, and she looks to understand basic grappling techniques enough to keep fights standing. Good grapplers will probably have success against her but her defensive grappling looks okay at times. She also has landed a few takedowns now and she seems to know how to float on top and land ground-and-pound.
I am looking forward to seeing Cong progress in the UFC. I will chalk up her most recent loss as random for now.
Cong will be taking on Ariane da Silva who is coming off a submission loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius. There is no shame in that loss though as Jasmine is legit.
Silva excels mostly as a power pocket puncher. She definitely has some quick hands and hits harder than most women from a strike per strike basis. So she can be dangerous.
Silva lands 4.04 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.87 in return. I don’t really trust her to win clear rounds on the feet with volume, and she is mostly dependent on just creating big moments and exchanges with her fast and powerful hands in the pocket. She is impactful on the feet though, and can hurt women and win rounds with effective striking. I still think she is a bit sloppy though and I don’t totally love her on the feet. She is dangerous though.
Silva isn’t a great grappler. She can hold position on top against low level opposition, but I don’t really expect her to take and hold many people down. She only lands 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and she isn’t a great top position player.
Silva is a major liability off her back. She can be held down and controlled for entire rounds. She can allow advances of position, get hammered with ground-and-pound, or get submitted. I am petrified for Silva anytime she gets taken down to be honest. She has been finished on the mat by Montana de La Rosa, Antonia Shevchenko, and Jasmine Jaduduvicius. It wasn’t random either, it was absolute dominance. So a takedown for any of Silva’s opponents could be a round losing or fight ending event.
Silva has shown improved TDD though. She now defends takedowns at 68 percent. She was getting taken down so easily early in her career. However, she defended all seven takedowns against Gatto and all 12 against Aldrich. She also shut down two takedowns against Casey O’Neil. Those girls aren’t great wrestlers, but the fact that Silva defended 21 straight takedowns does suggest improvement.
However, da Silva was outgrappled by Silva and Jasmine so there are still some weaknesses there. I do think her first layer takedown defese has improved though.
As far as this matchup goes, I generally think these girls will strike. I actually think if anyone has grappling success it will be Cong. Silva has no offensive takedowns and Cong is decent as a defensive grappler. Cong isn’t bad on top so if she caught a kick or something and ended up on top of Silva, I honestly think she can have success.
Ultimately I think both of these girls will primarily come out to strike. Cong is definitely a more skilled striker and better defensively. I also think Cong throws more consistent volume than Silva. I think Cong is definitely the better round winner and should win this fight because of it.
Cong just needs to avoid the big shots of Silva. Silva can swing and Cong has been hurt before. So I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Silva landed something big.
Overall though, I lean against those outcomes especially in WMMA when a knockout dependent fighter is going up against a superior striker. My guess is Cong avoids the power and just peppers Silva up a bit and wins a decision. She may land a takedown or something as well. Overall, Cong is the rightful favorite.
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On DraftKings, Cong is going to be largely boom or bust and I expect her to be among the lowest owned favorites on the slate at 9.1k.
It’s nothing against Cong, but she’s a primary kickboxer on a stacked slate, and her chances to reach the optimal are simply not that high. She’s coming off a destruction of Bruna Brasil where she landed 103 sig. strikes and two takedowns, and Cong still only put up 81 DK points in that win.
My only hesitation in calling her purely KO or bust, is that da Silva can be dominated on the mat. I do think Cong can actually land a couple of takedowns here, so perhaps there is some submission upside.
I’m actually really surprised to see that this fight as a whole is -120 to end inside the distance, and Cong is +130 to win ITD herself. Silva has been finished in four of her seven losses, so maybe I’m underrating Cong’s finishing ability here.
If this stands, Cong is actually going to rate out as a strong contrarian target. Despite a quality ITD line, I do think Merab/Pyfer/Van/Salkilld/Holland/Williams/Mix will all be targeted ahead of Cong, meaning she’ll only carry ownership in the low or mid teens. You can make a reasonable case for Cong as a place to be unique given that ownership, and Silva’s historic ITD losses.
Still, I’m personally just not willing to chase much Cong ITD exposure, and I’d rather lean into the safer, more obvious upside options priced nearby. In more mid-range builds, I’ll at least consider her as a pivot point when I cannot pay up much further.
Silva at 7.1k is a reasonable floor option though it may not work out well.
The fight is -110 to go the distance, and in 15 minutes, Silva could land some strikes. It’s just hard to project her for much more than 60 strikes, which won’t help us much. Maybe she can land 1 takedown but I wouldn’t bet on more.
Cong was finished in the UFC already but Silva won’t project well there with an +550 ITD line.
I don’t HATE Silva as there is some chance we could see a competitive striking fight. At 7.1k, I do think Silva is semi-viable as a floor play, on a slate where these low-end dogs could get murdered. Stars/scrubs constructions will rate out OK and I could see a loser on the optimal this week.
My best guess is that Silva will lose a decision and put up 20-30 points though, so she’s only worth low-end exposure at this price.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cong by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Jeka Saragih vs. Joo Sang Yoo
Fight Odds: Yoo -489, Saragih +366
Odds to Finish: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Yoo 9.5k, Saragih 6.7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Joo Sang Yoo’s a South Korean national who got a bit of a later start in terms of his pro MMA career, debuting back in 2021. He’ll be bypassing the Contender Series to make his UFC debut on Saturday – he’s 8-0 as a pro. Jeka Saragih’s the first Indonesian national to step foot in a UFC cage as he still earned a contract despite coming up short in the finals of the Road to UFC series back in 2023 – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 14-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
I’m unsure of Yoo’s official background but he operates in a hybrid traditional Korean kickboxing style with some karate-eque elements.
Early in his pro career, he was a lot wilder in the approach he took but he does appear to have reeled that in more in recent years. He’ll still look to pressure his opponents but he takes a more methodical approach with his shot selection.
So, he’s not necessarily a volume machine but is accurate in what he throws and has largely been able to dictate the exchanges in his fights.
He’s also shown some explosive elements in his striking with three of his pro wins coming via KO/TKO, but I’m still a bit shaky on how well that will translate to a UFC level, as I’ve also seen him carry some pretty underwhelming fighters to decisions.
Defensively, as noted, he’s largely been able to dictate exchanges in his fights and has shown decent evasion in terms of slipping shots and moving his feet – but he also tends to fight with his hands down and can be a bit cocky in there, so it’s also a style that may get him clipped in the future – he’s shown to take shots well to date though.
Overall, I’d like to see Yoo against a better brand of striker before making any definitive claims with him but he appears to be decent.
Saragih’s a striker by trade but not the biggest 145er in the world.
Despite having a healthy amount of tape on him, there’s honestly not much to say in terms of the overall striking analysis. He’s essentially just a brawler that tends to either go buck wild or fight in bursts.
He’s not very technical in what he does as a lot of his shots are loaded between his punches and kicks. But that’s been the primary success to date for him in his career as the guy does hit really hard, with nine of his 14 pro wins coming KO/TKO.
The last two KO’s he scored specifically, most recently against Ki and Alexander, were pretty brutal. So despite not being a technical savant, he’s definitely not a guy opponents want to be eating flush shots from.
Given his more reckless nature, he’s not very good defensively but to his credit, I’ve seen him take some bigger shots and he’s never been KO’d at distance in his pro career, so he’s shown some elements of toughness – granted he also hasn’t fought a good level of competition which needs to be noted.
Overall, opponents have to mind their Ps and Qs with a guy like Saragih but opponents with some modicum of footwork, defense, output and composure shouldn’t have much issue.
How it plays out: I’d say that Yoo possesses 2-3 of the attributes I just listed above, citing what’s going to give Saragih some issues. He’s the superior technical fighter who I largely think will be able to control exchanges. But as noted, I’m still not a huge fan of his volume and his hands down approach does make me a bit nervous against a guy like Saragih. If he misjudges his distance on some of these exchanges, he could get hurt here.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m also unsure of Yoo’s floor background but he has shown the ability to mix TDs in most of his fights.
He’s not a guy diving on legs for 15 minutes but has shown decent things from the body lock and has been able to take the back of a handful of opponents. He has one RNC submission and has threatened other opponents, but I don’t think he’s anything special as a pure submission grappler – he has shown he can use body triangles though which I like.
I’m still not a huge fan of his general top control though as most of his opponents have been able to work up under him. Defensively, he’s been shot on a decent amount and has generally shown stronger hips, and the ability to dig underhooks and stay upright.
He’s been taken down a few times and was controlled a bit in round three against Ekson two fights back, but he appears to be competent on the bottom and has shown decent scrambles and get ups when put there.
Overall, I think Yoo’s wrestling is an okay complement to his striking but I still wouldn’t classify him as a “good” wrestler/grappler – I’d put him more in the serviceable category.
I’m unsure of Saragih’s floor background but the ground is ultimately where his biggest struggles have come. He’s found some early wrestling success in a few fights and has four wins via submission, but they all came earlier on in his pro career.
Through his five documented UFC fights (including RTUFC), he’s stuffing at 66% which isn’t a terrible percentage per say but his general TDD has always been poor. All four of his pro losses have come on the ground, getting submitted three times and positionally TKO’d in the other.
He by in large got mauled by Angga despite having some early scrambling success – he made Jubli look like a D-1 wrestler in his debut and he most recently got taken down by Weston Wilson who can’t wrestle, and stuck himself in a triangle choke early on (he was a -400 favorite there).
Overall, Saragih’s pretty terrible on the ground and it doesn’t look like he’s made much evolution in that department over the years.
How it plays out: Despite me not thinking Yoo is anything special as a ground talent, I would say this is his clearest/safest PTV in the fight. He’s the better wrestler and grappler of the two who I also think is physically stronger. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Saragih put up early resistance, but Yoo should be able to have his way on the floor, specifically from the back.
Really random fight generally but especially to put on a PPV card. I mean I get it that it’s a fight that should produce a finish, but it really should be on an APEX or some overseas card. Like I said, I think Saragih has some KO upside here but I think Yoo is the better overall fighter with more PTVs – I still don’t think he’s a great talent though so I can’t say I’m supremely confident especially if he decides not to grapple here.
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Brett’s Notes: Joo Sang Yoo is making his UFC debut here with an 8-0 pro record at age 31. He’s earned three wins by TKO and one by submission.
There are only a few fights available from Yoo, so I don’t feel like I have a complete read on him at the moment.
From what I have watched, Yoo is a very good athlete. I would consider him well-rounded as well, with some potential to be effective on the feet and on the mat. However I don’t think he’s elite in either area.
On the feet, Yoo is explosive but he’s more of a single strike fighter and doesn’t throw tremendous volume. I think he’s sharper with his hands but I’ve seen him kick occasionally as well. He is fairly effective though, and he can occasionally throw flurries which look fairly dangerous. He will try to play an evasive defensive game so he doesn’t get hit a ton but he will fight with his hands down sometimes, and can be tagged.
I haven’t seen extensive wrestling from Yoo but he looks competent and I’ve seen him take the back pretty soundly. I’ve also seen him work out of a dangerous scramble on the mat, so my guess is that he’s semi-comfortable as a grappler. I am guessing he’s a better grappler than wrestler though.
I’ve seen him shoot and land an effortless takedown, and immediately let his opponent up to his feet which is always something that annoys me. Again, I do like the basics but I’m not certain his overall wrestling/grappling game is complete.
I have seen him taken down multiple times without a strong first-layer of takedown defense, which concerns me. I do think he can scramble fine but I wish he would sprawl better on the initial shot. He actually gave up his back kind of easily so he may not be very defensively sound in general, or simply may get beaten by strong wrestler/grappler archetypes.
I think Yoo can win fights in multiple areas, but I think he will prefer to strike where he will likely need moments to have success. Or he’ll simply need to control exchanges which is quite possible given his style and athletic skills. It is promising that he has won several decisions though, and it’s an indication that he’s been able to control exchanges well up to this point. I need to see more ultimately.
Saragih is now 14-4 professionally at age 30, earning nine wins by KO and four by submission.
Saragih first made his name on the Road to the UFC, where he knocked out his first two opponents but was obliterated by Anshul Jubli in the finals. Saragih was a big dog in some of those fights too, especially against WonBin Ki who he brutally KOd in the first round.
Saragih is arguably a base grappler, and offensively some of his skills are OK. He can land takedowns and he has a handful of RNCs on his record. You just have to take it with a grain of salt because he was dominated on the mat by Jubli, controlled for seven of the eight minutes and beaten to a pulp. He was also submitted in the first round by Weston Wilson who is a solid grappler but a pretty bad MMA fighter.
So in reality, his grappling is not good and I would only expect him to beat poor competition. It’s also very likely he gets run through by anyone decent.
As a striker, Saragih clearly has power, but I don’t really buy it. His recent KO was a bit fortunate, as he was getting lit up early and took advantage of a mistake from Almeida, who turned his back while exiting an exchange, and Saragih dropped him.
He was fairly composed against Ki though, who was being aggressive and throwing big power strikes. I’m willing to believe Saragih can continue to hurt fighters, but my guess is that his power isn’t really a stand out.
Otherwise, he can kick a little bit and throw a bit in combination. It’s fine. He’s only gone the distance once so it’s hard to buy into his round winning ability either.
I have to favor Yoo overall. He’s the better athlete in my opinion and the more likely of the two to have success over an extended period.
I could see Saragih rushing in and landing a big power shot, but it’s quite possible he could get countered and hurt there too, and I’d trust Yoo more in extended exchanges.
Maybe Saragih could take Yoo down and take his back but I’m not super confident in that. I am unsure if Yoo can hold Saragih down either.
I wish I had a better grasp on Yoo’s game but I mostly consider Saragih to have low-level early finishing equity and that’s it. Tough to bet on that type of outcome here and I expect Yoo to be the better fighter over an extended period with early finishing upside as well.
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On DraftKings, both sides have some viability for finishing equity but it’s hard to justify a lot of exposure to either.
Yoo to me works best as a pivot in this top tier, at 9.5k. I wouldn’t consider him a contrarian target, but I do think Merab/Harrison/Pyfer/Van will draw the most attention and it’s possible Yoo is the lowest owned of the 9k grouping besides Cong.
He will carry finishing equity with a -155 ITD line and that’s what makes him valuable. Especially on the mat, Saragih has had some weird performances and getting totally smashed on the mat by Jubli is the biggest concern. Yoo could take him down and sub him.
I still don’t think it’s likely that Yoo can reach a ceiling greater than Harrison/Merab, and that’s my biggest concern. He’s not a high volume fighter and I’m not sold he immediately works a wrestling game here.
As a pivot in the top tier though, I can get behind some Yoo. If you can’t pay up to Harrison or want to pivot off Salkilld or Van, for example. Yoo can definitely win ITD and if he does early, he could contend for the optimal.
It will be hard to justify a lot of exposure here though and an extended fight probably signals a bust with a lack of offensive production in general. Saragih has been exploited before though so it gives Yoo some finishing upside.
Saragih at 6.7k is just a dart throw. He has come through before in this situation, but I don’t trust him.
Mostly, I don’t think he’ll be producing much offense. Yoo won’t absorb strikes at a high rate and I doubt Saragih has grappling upside. So we’re basically betting on a random KO which is not something I’m particularly interested in.
If you want to take Saragih as a dart throw, go for it. He does have power and Yoo can fight with his hands down. He’s +525 ITD though and I wouldn’t recommend much more than a couple shots in larger fields.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Yoo by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Odds: Murzakanov -630, Ribeiro +448
Odds to Finish: -800
DraftKings Salaries: Murzakanov 9.6k, Ribeiro 6.6k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Azamat Murzakanov is a Contender Series alum from the 2021 season who hasn’t been the most active guy since joining the roster, but has kept his undefeated record intact – he’s 4-0 in the UFC and 14-0 as a pro. Brendson Ribeiro’s a fellow Contender Series alum who earned a contract back in 2023, pulling a pretty upset in terms of odds over Bruno Lopes. He had a rocky start to his run but is now coming off back to back wins, having made it to a 2nd UFC contract. He’ll be coming in on roughly four weeks’ notice to replace Johnny Walker – he’s 2-2 in the UFC and 17-7 as a pro.
The striking component:
Murzakanov isn’t the tallest 205 in the world standing 5’10” but he is dense and compact.
He’s a Master of Sport in hand-to-hand combat but based on how he fights in MMA, he’s more a blitz striker who will stay light on his feet, using a lot of in and out movement. He’s similar to a karate fighter in a lot of ways but he’s not much of a kicker.
As a southpaw, he’s got a nice lead right that he likes to follow with an overhand or straight lefts. He’ll mix in uppercuts as well, but this is his primary striking combination. In general, he’s not very diverse in what he does but it’s proven effective for him throughout his career so far.
As per his results of scoring 10 KOs, he’s fast, explosive and possesses a lot of power in the weight class. He does have a KO win over current UFC fighter Andre Muniz which is a great W on the rap sheet but the fight also only lasted 50 seconds.
In totality, he hasn’t faced a ton of resistance standing outside of him getting dropped early in his fight with Sakaev (0-3 fighter), but he recovered and found a finish of his own shortly after.
More recently, the striking with Tafon was competitive but Tafon was winning – he landed a big flying knee on Tafon early in the 3rd round, but was most likely on his way to losing a decision if he didn’t land the big blow. But he struck competitively with Jacoby who’s a solid kickboxer which I found impressive. However, based on round sequencing, if he doesn’t knock Jacoby down in the 2nd, he probably loses that round and the fight as he lost the 3rd round due to slowing down.
On the Contender Series, he landed a nice right hook to put Scheffel down and dropped Clark with a body shot. Most recently, he was just a step ahead of a more plodding Menifield which allowed him to get off on his blitzes, ultimately putting Menifield down in the 2nd round.
So, Murzakanov ultimately does what he does well, is dangerous, and the Jacoby fight’s a good reference point to say he can strike competitively with a quality striker. But he’s slowed down twice now in extended fights that he’s faced effective resistance in.
Ribeiro’s another pretty lanky 205er, standing 6’3” with an 81” reach.
He has that traditional Brazilian thai boxing type of style where everything tends to be very committal between his punches and kicks, with nine of his 17 pro wins coming via KO/TKO.
I’ve seen him use his length well at times behind straight shots but he kind of just lets that go out the window most of the time, either when he hurts someone or gets cracked himself to where he brawls. So, he has some live by the sword die by the sword elements, but he just doesn’t have a great chin with three of his last four losses coming via KO/TKO. His guard is loose and he’s very available in pocket exchanges.
He won his first decision against Machado, albeit somewhat controversially as he was outlanded 76 to 49 at distance – the head strike counts were essentially evens though.
So, he fought more reserved there and also reserved in his last outing against Nurgozhay, outlanding him 28 to 16 distance while also dropping Nurgozhay with a nicely placed right hand in the first round, despite not finishing that sequence.
Overall, given Ribeiro’s last couple fights, he may have changed his ways which could be a pro or con. I still don’t like his reactions to shots though; he’ll still leave his chin exposed in the pocket and getting 2x’d on volume against Machado is still a bad look, final result aside.
How it plays out: Off the top, Riberio will realize a massive size advantage here of 5” in height and 10” in reach. Both guys pacing minute to minute hasn’t exactly and it will be southpaw vs orthodox. It’s really the linear shots that both guys possess being their best weapons. The size disparity does make things interesting here but I would ultimately favor Murzakanov for a few reasons. First, I feel he’s more likely to take the center in pushing Ribeiro backwards. Secondly, I think he uses his lead hooks more effectively to set up his straight shots. Lastly, he has better distance defense than Ribeiro and hasn’t really shown any durability concerns to date, whereas Ribeiro’s been brutally KO’d multiple times. With all that being said though, Ribeiro does have power and will have rear body kicks available.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Murzakanov’s wrestling/grappling credentials but he’s competed in sambo before and has mixed TDs into some of his fights.
From an acumen standpoint, I don’t think he’s a very good wrestler by any means but is okay I guess – this was a contributing factor in his decision win over Inocente as well.
On top, he’s got one win via submission, but I couldn’t find that fight and it was over a 3-11 opponent so take that for what you will. But in the Inocente fight, he was largely just “lay and pray”. He got swept in that fight and was threatened with a couple leg locks but got out of them.
In his debut, he went 1/5 on TDs against Tafon, and Tafon was able to work up quickly on the one occasion he was taken down. He then went 0/1 against Clark – he landed some good ground-and-pound in that fight, but it was off him hurting Clark in comparison to landing TDs.
He took Jacoby down briefly on a decent entry, but Jacoby was able to scramble up quickly. Jacoby took him down once late in the fight, but he got up quickly and the control time Jacoby accrued came against the fence.
Outside of that, he’s never really been wrestled or been on the bottom, so assessing his defensive floor game is still pretty difficult.
Ribeiro is a BJJ brown belt with seven of 17 pro wins coming via submission.
I wouldn’t consider him a very good wrestler, but he has had success landing TDs in a handful of regional outings from opponents who kind of just keeled over.
On top, I’ve seen a few different things. In certain matchups, he’s prioritized control and hasn’t been super aggressive. In others, he’ll sacrifice position for submission or go really heavy with GNP. Defensively, his TDD isn’t very good and has some guard playing elements to his game where he’s going to look for subs or sweeps in comparison to conventionally working to his feet.
He’s had some success in playing that game (subbed Nurgozhay last time out with a kimura set up from bottom), but he’s also been subbed twice and was positionally TKOd against Breno back on the Brazilian regionals.
He was recently grinded out by Gadzhiyasulov in the latter two rounds as well – he did have a viable guillotine attempt in there though and attempted early TDs.
So similar to the stand-up component of his game, he has some live by the sword die by the sword elements on the floor as well.
How it plays out: The floor is a bit difficult to analyze more from the Murzakanov side because as noted, he hasn’t been a persistent wrestler and we’ve seen very little of him on the bottom – he is stuffing at 83% though in his five documented fights. Whereas we’ve seen a lot more from Ribeiro but he’s been very hit or miss. I honestly just don’t know if TDs will be shot here and if there is, how effective either party would be.
Funky fight. I actually haven’t been as high on Murzakanov as some others despite his 14-0 record because I have seen some flaws – granted the guy has proven me wrong on a few different occasions now. On the flip, I’ve been lower on Ribeiro primarily classifying him as a “meme” fighter where my assessment hasn’t changed all that much despite his recent successes and more methodical approaches – he’s still a kill or be killed guy based on a longer track record. For the striking reasons mentioned above, I’m picking Murzakanov to win because I think he has more KO equity, better optics and is less likely to get knocked out. With that being said, the size discrepancy scares me a bit in addition to the pacing of the fight potentially being slower where general margins could tighten a little. Ribeiro’s just one of these wildcard types of fighters where it’s hard to ever have much faith in him but you can’t entirely count him out either.
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On DraftKings, I have very little interest in Murzakanov at 9.6k, despite the fact I’m going to pick him to win by KO.
He’s just not a high-volume fighter and wrestling should be largely an afterthought, which really limits his upside. He’s landed a knockdown in each of his four UFC bouts and never topped 100 points, which is a major concern.
Granted, he’s also never won by TKO in RD 1 in the UFC, so a RD 1 finish would still equate to a strong score. Against Ribeiro, Murzakanov is -350 to win ITD and he’s +100 to win in round one, which is very strong. An early KO is quite realistic in my opinion.
But I still don’t think he can match the upside of the championship fighters, and if any other fighter wins ITD below him, they’d probably surpass him on a points per dollar basis. If the fight simply hits round two, Murzakanov has shown an inability to put up a score worthy of contending for the optimal at this kind of price tag.
Essentially, I’d be looking for 110+ for Murzakanov at a minimum, and probably 120+. This top range is stacked and we should see a few big scores. Perhaps he could get there with a RD 1 KO and/or multiple knockdowns, but I still don’t think that outcome would be anything close to an optimal guarantee, and I don’t think I’m willing to pay the price tag.
I don’t think Murzakanov will be ultra popular though, despite his metrics. His box scores only look mediocre and there are too many strong, cheaper options who I think the public will prefer. If anything, I view Murzakanov as a viable pivot within this top tier though he still needs the early KO.
I don’t like the pacing of this fight and that’s my major concern for Murzakanov reaching a ceiling. I do think he has a realistic chance to get his desired result but at 9.6k, I’m still betting against a massive ceiling and so I’d rather prioritize the championship fighters and/or cheaper targets.
Riberio at 6.6k may actually be one of my favorite punt targets, though I honestly think he sucks.
Again, I’d bet on Murzakanov to win by KO, but at least there is some variance in striking exchanges at the LHW division, where randomness can come into play. Ribeiro is also five inches taller with a 10-inch reach advantage, which I am sucker for. Murzakanov is typically on the smaller side and he fights well through those size disadvantages, but I’d prefer the bigger, longer fighter generally.
Ribeiro is +450 to win ITD and has zero floor, so he won’t rate out particularly well. Others definitely have a better chance to last a while and score a handful of points. I think Ribeiro has more ITD than others and a path to a weird decision win. I don’t particularly like him, but I’d be fine taking a few shots on him given the 6.6k price tag and the overall slate dynamic.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Murzakanov by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Fight Odds: Spivac -141, Cortes-Acosta +123
Odds to Finish: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Spivac 8.3k, Cortes-Acosta 7.9k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an extremely binary matchup here between grappler Sergei Spivac and boxer Waldo-Cortes Acosta.
Spivac is okay for a heavyweight. He is best as an offensive grappler. He lands 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and can do a lot of upper body type of takedowns. He looks to work his submission grappling game from top position and I consider him a mildly dangerous submission grappler. He has six finishes in the UFC and all have come on the mat.
Spivac can also mildly strike but I don’t consider him good on the feet either. He lands 3.49 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.77 in return. He has decent striking cardio and can go through the motions, but he just doesn’t have a ton of athleticism, speed, or power on the feet. We have also seen him have some durability issues as well. I am much more comfortable with Spivac winning fights when he can wrestle offensively.
Spivac has had defensive wrestling issues. He defends takedowns at 63 percent which is okay but I can’t get the first Tybura fight out of my head. He was taken down and controlled for eight minutes. Oleiinik also landed a takedown against Spivac. Almeida also recently defeated Spivac on the mat.
Overall though, Spivac will win fights if he can implement his own offensive wrestling. If he doesn’t, he will likely lose.
Spivac will be taking on Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Acosta is hoping to build upon his knockout win against Ryan Spann earlier this year.
Acosta is from the Dominican Republic, a powerhouse baseball country, and was kicked out of the Cincinnati Reds’ organization after getting into a fight with a teammate. He then got into boxing training and started MMA shortly after so he doesn’t have a deep fighting pedigree.
Acosta honestly is decent and has fared well in the UFC thus far against low level competition. I have randomly bet this guy successfully like five times. He is clearly best as a boxer. He relies on his hands and his jab a lot. He is a pretty good athlete for HW, and I do consider his hands decent. He has some alright speed. He has power as well, and I do think he is knockout capable in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He has decent timing on his strikes.
Acosta basically just looks to land at distance and mix in dirty boxing in the clinch. His cardio looks to at least be somewhat solid and he seems like a tough dude.
Acosta lands 5.76 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.47 in return. Those are good metrics and I like that he lands consistently without tiring badly. Waldo also has dominated the head strike numbers in his fights thus far.
Acosta doesn’t look to wrestle all that often and he doesn’t really have a ground game background, so I doubt grappling is a consistent path to victory for him at this level. However, he did recently outgrapple Robelis Despaigne which isn’t saying much, but it at least showed that he can take advantage of fighters with major holes. He also may just be improving in general as he is young from an MMA career standpoint.
I have seen Acosta taken down a bit on the regionals which isn’t a good sign but he at least tried to work to his feet. He got taken down by Chase Sherman which was a VERY bad look to me and Marcos Rogerio De Lima had success on the mat against him as well. However, he did at least do the right things against De Lima and tried working up to his feet, and was generally successful in getting up. I think decent grapplers can expose Acosta, but his TDD and get-ups didn’t look all that bad against De Lima, and that fight was two years ago so he probably has improved a bit.
I really don’t know where Acosta’s defensive grappling game is right now which makes this fight vs Spivac really hard to predict. If this fight stays standing, Acosta should win and he will probably knock Spivac out. If Acosta can’t stop the takedowns, he will probably lose.
I think Acosta’s defensive wrestling was okay vs De Lima, but it wasn’t great either. I think that version of Acosta probably loses to Spivac the majority of the time. So honestly I don’t blame people picking Spivac here. I could easily see Spivac having success on the mat.
I still just think Acosta is a good athlete and that fight against De Lima was over two years ago. My guess is Acosta has improved to a degree. I also think Spivac is loose on top and sometimes allows escapes which could really come back to bite him here.
So I am actually going to go with Acosta here. This is totally a guessing game though as I am projecting Acosta for some level of improvement that may not be reality. Who knows where Acosta really is as a defensive grappler. So this fight is truly a tough one and I don’t think any rational bettor could be confident here.
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On DraftKings, this is a pretty tough fight to predict and even with the binary dynamic, I’m still not sold it’s a smash.
However, I think based on the dynamics of this slate, and the mid-range prices on this fight, it’s probably a spot I will look to invest in.
Spivac is priced at 8.3k and he’s a pretty reasonable upside target. In a win, it should come with multiple takedowns and a potential finish. He’s only +175 to win ITD which is fine but not special.
Spivac has landed six takedowns on three different occasions though, so he has some wrestling upside. If he can land 1-2, he can probably land 6, if that makes sense. Either Cortes-Acosta can stop him or he can’t.
I’m actually going to pick Cortes-Acosta to win, so I’m not extremely high on Spivac. But I do want exposure to him for his wrestling path and I think he’s the easier target of the two given his fighting style. He’d be a solid secondary target for me in tournaments.
Cortes-Acosta may need a knockout which is the issue in targeting him at 7.9k. And he could be held down early which could also limit his upside.
My guess is that he can get up though, and even if he’s taken down, he’ll try to scramble. On the feet, he just hits hard and Spivac doesn’t react to shots very well. I think a knockout is pretty realistic in a Cortes-Acosta win.
Surprisingly, Cortes-Acosta also has a +165 ITD line which is pretty strong for the price. He could attract attention for that reason, along with his recent box scores of 110 and 99.
I’m just going to state the obvious and say that Cortes-Acosta will very likely bust in an extended fight. He won’t land takedowns and volume will be a challenge. He just won’t put up a big score for his price tag without a KD/KO. Therefore, playing him at a high rate is very risky.
I think it’s a spot I’m going to be forced onto though, at least a secondary target. I do think Cortes-Acosta can win and score the KO. His ITD line is strong. And the fight has very binary elements.
The fight is -190 to end ITD overall so it’s going to rate out as a strong mid-range fight to target, and I’d like moderate exposure to the fight as a whole. I will lean toward Cortes-Acosta personally but not dramatically.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cortes-Acosta by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson
Fight Odds: Williams -191, Gustafsson +163
Odds to Finish: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Williams 8.7k, Gustafsson 7.5k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a potentially wild fight here between Khaos Williams and Andreas Gustafsson.
Both of these guys were actually scheduled to face other opponents, but both matchups fell out, so the UFC matched these guys up. So both have been in camp and training in general.
Williams is mostly a striker. He has not even attempted a takedown in the UFC. He obviously has power and is capable of knocking people out. So that will always be a path to victory for him. He has major knockout power.
Williams actually isn’t a bad striker when fights get extended either. Khaos is landing 5.36 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 5.19 in return. He defends strikes at 43 percent. I don’t think Williams is super technical as a striker, but he is extremely athletic and manages range well with his quickness. He is also very good at unloading counter hooks if you come into the pocket. I consider him very dangerous and capable of knocking opponents out dead.
I had always been skeptical of Williams’ defensive grappling and TDD. He has fought SO many strikers in his career and he had only surrendered takedowns to Michel Pereira. So going into his last matchup against Gabriel Bonfim, I thought Bonfim might expose Williams on the mat. That ended up happening. Bonfim landed four takedowns and submitted Williams in round two.
I do think Williams has okay first layer takedown defense and can use explosiveness to power out of some positions. He defends takedowns at a decent 60 percent. However, he clearly has some issues and I will always be skeptical of his defensive grappling.
Williams will be taking on Andreas Gustafsson. Gustafsson won by knockout on the Contender Series back in August to book his ticket to the UFC. He is a Swedish fighter and is 11-2 professionally. He comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background.
This guy is a bit of a spaz. He aggressively clinches up all of his opponents and then just kind of goes from there. He is a big and physical guy. In the clinch he likes to just land inside strikes like punches, elbows, and knees, and he just gives his opponents no room to operate. He is capable of hurting opponents on the inside and just likes to make it ugly.
Gustafsson will also go for takedowns in the clinch and he can take down weak grapplers. As with most Greco guys, I don’t think his actual takedowns are good. I don’t think his top control is great either. He is also not a talented submission grappler. I think he can outgrapple weak grapplers but as he gets in the UFC, I think he will struggle more and more to beat guys with offensive wrestling. I have seen him taken down but he does seem to work up somewhat well.
I like the fact that Gustafsson is at least aggressive and will try really hard to clinch and land inside strikes. I think he can get occasional wins in the UFC with that style. I think he is also moderately dangerous.
My issue is that Gustafsson is limited and that style will only go so far. I don’t think he is actually skilled. I really question his defense too, especially at range where his opponents have room to operate. I have seen him teed off on and hurt at range. He has never been finished and seems tough, but I definitely think he will get knocked out at some point at this level.
As far as this matchup goes, I absolutely think Williams has the power to knock out Gustafsson. Gustafsson seriously has no defense and if these guys get stuck at range, Williams is clearly faster, sharper, and more powerful there. I honestly think it is the most likely outcome of the fight and what I am going to pick to happen. I just think Gustafsson is so defensively open. Williams will probably eventually hurt him.
However, Gustafsson will try to clinch and wrestle here. So he could give Williams issues and no room to land his power strikes at range. I really do think it is possible for Gustafsson to land some takedowns and have success here. Williams just isn’t a good defensive wrestler.
The issue is I don’t think Gustafsson’s takedowns and top control are that good. He isn’t a great submission grappler either. So I do think Williams can at least stop some takedowns and explode back to his feet at times. That should give Williams opportunities to strike and land his power shots. So I am going to go with Williams.
I still think Gustafsson can have success here though. Takedowns could land, he could clinch up and fatigue Williams. Gustafsson could also just land a random power shot on the inside and hurt Williams too. Gustafsson does have power. Although I do lean against that happening because Williams is historically very durable. So I will go with Williams. I just don’t think an upset Gustafsson would shock me either.
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On DraftKings, I’m happy we get to see the Andreas Gustafsson debut once again, but I am a bit bummed that we didn’t get it last week against Trevin Giles. I feel as though Gustafsson would have dominated Giles, and this is clearly a much tougher matchup.
Despite that, I still think Gustafsson is a strong fantasy target at 7.5k. When he wins, it will come from aggressive clinching, wrestling, and damage. Clinching isn’t the greatest path to victory typically but it does count for control time on DraftKings, and oftentimes fighters can land strikes in bulk in the clinch.
If this fight takes place at range, Williams should smash Gustafsson and it honestly could turn into a fight of the night type matchup, as Gustafsson is super tough and willing to fire back, even when he’s getting beaten up.
Also, I said this last week but Gustafsson’s game really relies on his physicality which is interesting. When that part fails, he will lose, but I do think it’s possible he can just bully guys in the clinch like Williams. I did not like Williams’ performance against Bonfim last time out and I didn’t like some of his defensive wrestling. He was constantly defending with guillotines and I think it’s possible he just won’t be able to outmuscle Gustafsson in the clinch.
This is also not a slate with many live underdogs, so with Gustafsson sitting at +163, I’m definitely interested as he at least carries some win equity on paper. And he’s relatively cheap at 7.5k, with upside.
Gustafsson is +285 to win ITD which isn’t that bad either, and I think he has mild finishing equity. I don’t think it’s a super likely outcome though.
Last week, I was aiming to be heavy on Gustafsson and I was pretty confident he’d win. This week, I’m not at all confident and I’ll probably pick Williams. However, I still think Gustafsson has a shot and has a style that can score well in a win. I think he’s a solid secondary play at 7.5k all things considered.
Williams at 8.7k definitely interests me for KO upside but I do think he’s boom or bust, which is a little tricky.
I don’t think Williams will be wrestling offensively, and I also think it’s possible Gustafsson just holds him against the cage early and won’t allow many strikes to land. So my fear is that the fight could extend, and Williams just won’t produce a ton of offense.
I still think a KO is live for Williams and he’s -110 to win ITD. He’s way better than Gustafsson at range and could pick him apart if Gustafsson is unable to clinch control. A mid-round stoppage could still potentially get Williams to the optimal at 8.7k.
I also think there’s some chance this fight is bananas, and these two go to war. Williams is live for a KO or KDs in that type of fight.
I’m a little bit more worried about the fight extending than I originally anticipated, and I think Gustafsson is a little more live to win than I originally anticipated. That might limit my exposure to Williams a bit. But I also think Williams has clear KO equity if he can keep the fight at distance, and his ITD metrics are strong. He makes for a solid tournament target and I wouldn’t want to be too far off the field given his finishing potential.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Williams by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski
Fight Odds: Mederos -201, Choinski +171
Odds to Finish: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Mederos 8.9k, Choinski 7.3k
Weight Class: 155
We’ll get an interesting short-notice debutant as Mark Choinski will step up to face MarQuel Mederos, who was originally scheduled to fight last weekend.
Choinski is 8-0 as a pro at 29 years old, and he’s earned five wins by submission and one by knockout.
He’s a 3x D3 All-American, and I would consider him best on the mat. I don’t view Choinski as some elite physical force which does concern me as he makes steps up in competition. Obviously he’s not a D1 or D2 wrestler so I wouldn’t say he’s some elite technical fighter either.
However, Choinski looks like a decent wrestler, and he looks like a pretty decent submission grappler as well. I’ve seen him transition to the back well, scramble and attack armbars, and finish with arm-triangles from top as well. He looks semi-dangerous as a submission grappler in general though I imagine his success will come against a lower-level of competition.
Thus far, Choinski hasn’t been fighting the best competition in APFC which is Anthony Pettis’ fight organization. His opponents aren’t duds, but I’m not sold his success will easily translate to the UFC.
Choinski fights out of Roufusport which is a decent camp and I assume it’s why he’s fighting in Pettis’ organization who also trains there.
Otherwise, I actually like Choinski’s game. His boxing actually looks pretty decent to me and he’s very willing to engage. He has some power and I’ve seen him hurt opponents, and then dive on takedowns to finish the fight. I’m not sure he’s easily going to win minutes and he could be somewhat of a defensive liability, but I actually like his basics and I don’t think he’s purely a grappler.
In some fights, his game plan has actually been to strike early which is a mild concern. It shows his willingness to strike and also his well-roundedness, but I’d probably prefer he prioritized wrestling a little bit more.
His cardio looks decent though too and he’s gone the distance multiple times, looking fine in the latter rounds.
Choinski was scheduled to fight in a week so he has been in camp and this shouldn’t be a full short notice fight.
I’m open to Choinski being decent, honestly. I don’t think he’s a world-beater but I do think he can be competitive against the low-mid levels standing, and I think he can outgrapple lower level competition. I am not certain he’s elite anywhere though, and so there’s a real possibility that while he’s competitive, he’s simply not able to separate from opponents. Especially if his takedowns won’t land consistently which I am unsure at the moment.
He’s got a decent base of skills and I think will show up when the lights come on, which is a good start.
Despite a 10-1 pro record and back-to-back victories to start his UFC career, MarQuel Mederos only looks like a fringe UFC talent to me.
He pulled off an ultra-close split decision over Austin Hubbard where Mederos only landed 44 significant strikes, and prior to that he barely edged out a decision over Landon Quinones while landing 60 significant strikes.
That lack of effective offense is going to be an issue for me when projecting his fights. He’s currently landing 3.75 sig. strikes per minute and doesn’t seem to have the capability to run away with rounds. He has shown a lot of power on the regional scene, earning six wins by TKO, but I don’t view him as a major power threat at the UFC level.
Mederos does move pretty well and has been able to control exchanges, where he’s only absorbing 2.61 sig. strikes per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate. He seems pretty durable as well. I like the fact that he can mix in leg strikes and he’s landed 14 and 16 leg kicks in his two UFC fights thus far.
As a wrestler, I don’t see Mederos having much success at this level. He’s already 0/6 on takedowns through two fights, and he has no submissions on his record. He’s a BJJ purple belt and showed adequate defense when defending the RNC against Hubbard, but he still ultimately got put in that position which is moderately concerning.
I don’t think Mederos will be easy to take down and hold down, and that may allow him to continue to get stand-up fights where he’s got a real shot to win minutes. But his lack of pacing/power at the UFC level probably keeps him in competitive fights and I just don’t see much upside in his game at the moment.
As far as this matchup, I’m a little surprised that Mederos is priced north of -200 and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the fight was competitive.
I definitely consider Mederos the more technical striker of the two though. He could hurt Choinski, or damage him via leg kicks. I just don’t expect him to run away with the numbers and Choinski looks fairly tough to me.
Plus, Choinski will exchange. It’s not like he’s an incapable boxer and Mederos already went strike for strike with Landon Quinones. I would favor Mederos to win rounds though and I’d give him slightly more KO upside of the two.
Choinski looks like the better grappler to me and he certainly has the better pedigree of the two. It may be unfair to assume Choinski easily beats Mederos on the mat, but Mederos has ultimately been taken down by both Quinones and Hubbard, and Hubbard was able to threaten him with a RNC.
I’d give Choinski 1-3 takedown upside in this matchup and with those takedowns, he could threaten for a sub. He could also compete enough on the feet to edge out rounds with some additional grappling.
Mostly, Mederos just hasn’t separated from either of his first two UFC opponents, and I respect Choinski’s base skills enough to give him a real shot here. It may be fair to just take Mederos by decision as that’s probably the most realistic outcome, but I sort of like Choinski better as a prospect and I may take a stab at the underdog.
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On DraftKings, I’m definitely willing to take a chance on Choinski at 7.3k given the dynamic of the slate.
Once you get below Choinski in pricing, you’re looking at mostly huge underdogs. So I kind of consider him the cut off line where an underdog win wouldn’t really be a big surprise.
Plus, Choinski does have grappling equity and some sub equity, so his path to victory could outperform his price tag as well. He won’t project that great with a +525 ITD line, but perhaps that will keep some of the public off him.
I don’t want to get too excited by this play as he’s not a lock, and Mederos will slow the fight down. So there are clear bust cases for both sides of the matchup.
However, I do like the price on Choinski and I think a decision is very plausible. For 7.3k, I think he’s a solid secondary target and I wouldn’t mind saving salary with him.
Mederos is priced up to 8.9k and I consider him a contrarian target this week.
He’s won twice in the UFC and scored 64 and 58 DK points. He’s literally priced right below Merab this week, and above some bigger names like Mix and Holland who will draw more public attention. I think Mederos mostly gets ignored on this slate and he’ll be a contrarian target because of it.
I honestly don’t love him, despite the contrarian nature, and that’s because I think he needs a very early KO to be optimal. There are so many good fighters on this slate and huge favorites, it feels like a major risk to be invested in this spot.
Mederos is +175 to win ITD though which isn’t that bad. He could hurt Choinski. Perhaps he’s a viable contrarian play based on that metric alone.
But it really is just an option to be unique, and I don’t see a fair reason to project an early KO here. I likely won’t be on Mederos with a small number of lineups but in a larger portfolio I could get behind a small percent for contrarian purposes.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Choinski by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz
Fight Odds: Salkilld -580, Ashmouz +420
Odds to Finish: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Salkilld 9.4k, Ashmouz 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Quillan Salkilld’s a Contender Series alum from the past season, now entering his sophomore promotional appearance after a successful debut back in February – he’s 8-1 as a pro. Yanal Ashmouz is a guy who came a bit out of nowhere as he didn’t compete on Contender Series and wasn’t signed in a short notice roll either. But he’s generally outperformed expectations so far through his early UFC tenure – he’s 2-1 in the UFC and 8-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Salkilld’s a long guy at 155 pounds, standing 6’ tall with a 75” reach.
I don’t believe he comes from any conventional striking background but has a more muay thai/kickboxing-esque type of style. He particularly excels with his lead hook, long straight right and additional body work with both punches/kicks/knees.
His work rate has also been consistent throughout his shorter pro career.
I still wouldn’t classify him as a big pure hitter with only two distance based KOs, but he has attritional elements to his striking that can break guys down or outwork them over the course of fights.
He flows generally well where some of the loose nature to his game is a pro and con. He’s not the fastest guy in the world and has some defensive liabilities as he can be susceptible to straighter shots when effectively cut off.
But the kid looks like he’s got a decent chin in the sample we have right now.
Overall, Salkilld’s a decent striker but a guy I still think is working into using his longer frame.
Our footage on Ashmouz standing is somewhat limited but he’s a compact guy who will mix in kicks here and there, but his best weapons standing are his hooks within the pocket.
However, his footwork isn’t the best and doesn’t really disguise his entries all that well. Four of his eight pro wins come via strikes but three of them have come on the ground.
But he will throw with intent, and we saw him clock Patterson in his debut outing – big upset in terms of the odds but I do partially attribute that to Patterson just having tall man’s defense.
Defensively, he hasn’t faced a ton of volume, but I’ve seen him struggle with pressure, counters and rangier fighters.
In his fight with Duncan, he just got outworked, being out landed 82 to 34 on the distance numbers. Although there was some heavier context in that Ashmouz broke his left arm in the 1st round while blocking a high kick from Duncan, and he had to fight the guy for the next 11-12 minutes with just his rear hand and kicks.
He was losing earlier but not by a significant margin. Point being though, it’s not a fight that I can weigh all that much in terms of analysis given the circumstance. He did prove that he’s a tough SOB though and not someone who’s going to quit even in the worst possible scenario – he showed heart.
He’s coming off getting outlanded 48 to 19 at distance by Peek though, who is an aggressive fighter but possesses no real technical acumen.That’s about all there is to say with him so far.
How it plays out: Off the top, Salkilld will realize a healthy size advantage of 3” in height and 7” in reach. Despite some issues I still have with Salkilld, he’s the better striker here as I think he generally possesses more weapons and is more consistent to produce offense. I also don’t think he’s going to be an easy guy for Ashmouz to clip and the Patterson fight is still kind of memey to me.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Salkilld’s first martial art was jiu-jitsu where despite only being 25 years old, he got his black belt back in 2023.
He’s not a particularly strong open mat wrestler but excels against the fence in either dropping for doubles or utilizing wrestle-rides to drag guys down and slip to the back.
I’d say that’s the part of Salkilld’s game I like the most as he floats well transitionally to positions. Additionally, when on top, he’ll throw really good GNP from the half guard and will also control wrists if guys try to go to turtle.
Four of his six finish wins have come on the ground as well – 3 subs and 1 TKO – his two decision wins consisted of wrestling success as well.
His defensive wrestling still needs some work but he’s also a guy who isn’t going to accept bottom positions – he’s constantly shrimping, framing, attacking, moving and scrambling so he hasn’t been an easy guy to hold down – he reminds me a little bit of UFC flyweight Brandon Royval in that capacity.
Overall, I don’t think Salkilld is a super high level grappler but I generally like his jiu-jitsu and how he uses his striking/frame/body type in his grappling.
The ground has been the primary credence to Ashmouz, but his wrestling still isn’t anything special to me and seems very physical based.
Like he’s not really landing conventional TDs outside of just muscling guys down or being able to reverse TDAs from his opponents to end up in top positions. But I would say the best component of Ashmouz’s game that we have to go on is his GNP as he’ll be consistent to throw strikes and rack up minutes on top when he secures those positions.
Defensively, I’ve seen him taken down in multiple fights to where he can lose minutes but to his credit, he’s eventually been able to work up or out of those positions to then produce offense himself as noted.
Overall, he seems to be more of a gritty ground fighter than some pure technician or high-level grappler, but it’s been to his benefit specifically in his last two fights regional fights.
How it plays out: The ground I suppose would be the primary upside to Ashmouz as I do feel he’s capable of taking Salkilld down, but I’m also not really optimistic he’ll be able to gain higher amounts of control and it’s doubtful he’s finishing Salkilld. On the flip side though, Salkilld will be one of the better ground fighters that Ashmouz has fought who’s good transitionally, so it also begs the question of how Ashmouz does if put in more compromising positions.
Not a hot take for me as I ultimately like Salkilld to get the job done here as I generally view him as the better fighter with more ways to win. But as noted, Ashmouz is a tough guy that’s been slept on before so you can’t really count him out either – I just think his win equity would be primarily tied to a greasy decision.
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On DraftKings, Salkilld is an intriguing target based on two factors, which are his wrestling upside and his box scores.
On DWCS, Salkilld landed 9 takedowns on 22 attempts, and would have scored 115+ in a decision. And in his UFC debut, he won by KO in just 19 seconds and scored 127 DK points.
I couldn’t care less about the debut score personally but his wrestling upside does interest me. Salkilld is a fairly aggressive pace fighter and has shown wrestling upside on the regionals as well, so I do think he can continue to put up solid scores in the right matchups.
I’m not certain this is the right matchup for it though. Ashmouz is tough and does have a wrestling background too. He was taken down twice on four attempts by Duncan but he was injured in that fight and still limited Duncan to 48 seconds of control. I do think Salkilld can take him down but I’d lean toward 2-4 takedowns as opposed to 7-10. The fight is -140 to go the distance and Salkilld is only +160 to win ITD which isn’t strong in comparison to this top range.
Without lots of takedowns, I’m just not sure Salkilld will contend for the optimal at 9.4k in a stacked top range. I’m also worried his debut box score will attract enough attention to make him semi-chalk. Though other studs are priced nearby so that will keep ownership limited.
I have mixed feelings. I like Salkilld’s potential to attempt a lot of takedowns, though I’m not sure he will be very successful with them, and it’s quite possible he could prioritize striking in this matchup which concerns me. Salkilld will have significant length advantages though which could also play a role, and could potentially help in aiding him to a win inside the distance. Most likely, even in a decision, Salkilld should put up a strong score, and I think he’s safer than others in this range for that reason, but I also question whether his base outcomes are enough to stand out.
Ultimately, I’m not against playing Salkilld and having some exposure to him makes sense given his paths for upside. He’s 9.4k and fits into some constructions easier than the very top tier. I also think there is safety in his pacing.
I would still lean toward the championship targets if given the choice, and I’d lump Pyfer/Van/Yoo/Murzakanov into a similar tier as Salkilld, but coming in near the field or slightly under on Salkilld makes sense to me given a theoretical volume wrestling path may still be on the table.
Ashmouz has some low-end viability at 6.8k and I wonder if he’ll draw any attention coming off a 115 point score. He too earned a super quick KO in his debut and also scored 101, so his box scores look legit. This may actually be the first fight in UFC history where BOTH fighters landed 9 takedowns in their previous matchup (unconfirmed).
My reasoning for targeting Ashmouz would be that he is semi-likely to fight for 15 minutes, and has the ability to land some takedowns. Plus, there’s an extremely small sample on Salkilld so it’s quite possible that he could be overrated coming off that 20-second debut KO win.
On the other hand, Ashmouz is at a severe size disadvantage here, and he’s not a particularly high-volume striker. I think Salkilld is the better BJJ fighter and so even if Ashmouz lands a few takedowns, I doubt he can do anything with them.
Rewatching that Peek fight, his nine takedowns were not nearly as impressive as the nine takedowns landed by Salkilld.
I don’t have much faith in any fighter from this bottom tier which makes the slate as a whole quite difficult, and I do think we could see a loser on the optimal. Ashmouz at least will get a high-paced matchup with mild wrestling equity, so he’s not the worst floor play in that sense. Expecting him to win the fight is probably not very realistic.
I’d be fine using Ashmouz as a low-end target for the reasons given above. But I’m not expecting him to clearly win rounds or have a real shot to win ITD, with a +525 ITD line. At best he’s a mix-in for pricing and some chance to go the distance, but I’d obviously cap my exposure here as he carries little win equity on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Salkilld by Decision (Confidence=Medium)