UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier (6/1/24)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Fight Odds: Makhachev -758, Poirier +517
Odds to Finish: -550
DraftKings Salaries: Makhachev 9.5k, Poirier 6.7k
Weight Class: 155
With a potential retirement looming, Dustin Poirier is going to give his title aspirations one last go, as he’ll get the opportunity to face Islam Makhachev for the lightweight strap this weekend.
Poirier most recently defeated Benoit Saint Denis, knocking him out in the second round in exhilarating fashion, which prompted the UFC to throw him into the title mix.
Of course, Poirier has been a staple of this division’s elite for many years, and his longstanding success holds enough merit to give him another title opportunity. But it should be noted that his recent form has only been mediocre.
His last truly big win came against Conor McGregor in 2021, which led to a title shot against Charles Oliveira, and Poirier did not pass that test. He then found a submission late against Michael Chandler, but largely took a beating for the first couple of rounds. Then he was knocked out by Justin Gaethje.
Against Saint Denis, Poirier again had to come from behind. Saint Denis was pressing him early, and found a lot of success on the mat. He had Poirier mounted, and was fishing for a RNC from his back at points as well.
Eventually, Saint Denis did get tired, and flung himself into wild boxing exchanges which he was never going to win, and Poirier promptly knocked him out.
It will be a much more difficult test against Islam Makhachev, who not only has far superior grappling than anyone Poirier has fought recently, but also absorbs strikes at an absurdly low rate.
It’s been one of the hallmark’s of Makhachev’s success that we’ve noted time and again. At distance, Makhachev is only absorbing 2.2 sig. strikes per minute, and in total, he’s absorbing only 1.27 per minute.
It’s a far cry from someone like Saint Denis, who absorbs 8.7 significant strikes per minute at distance and is known for having non-existent defense. While BSD had advantages on the mat, it was always going to be Poirier who would come out ahead in boxing exchanges.
Poirier is certainly the more dangerous boxer of the two in this current matchup as well, but Makhachev will limit exchanges to where they are favorable for him, and he won’t engage in spots where he is in danger.
It simply makes the path to victory more difficult. Not only will Poirier have to survive the ground attack, but when the fight takes place standing, he’s fighting an opponent who won’t put himself into compromising positions.
With that said, we have seen Makhachev slip up. His one career loss was a first-round KO in 2015 against Adriano Martins. Volkanovski also dropped him in 2023.
Should Poirier actually defend takedowns and force extended boxing exchanges, he will have a chance to win. It may not come easily, but Poirier is the superior and more comfortable boxer, and it is possible he damages Makhachev enough to stop the fight.
Of course, this is all with the premise that he can stop the grappling attack from Makhachev, which feels pretty unlikely to me.
Poirier is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but he’s not a great wrestler, and he’s obsessed with the stupid guillotine choke that he uses to attack instead of defending takedowns, which consistently fails and puts him in bad positions.
Think about how many times Poirier has attempted that guillotine. It seems like he tries it multiple times per fight. Guess how many times he’s won by guillotine in the UFC? The answer is zero.
Obviously anything is possible, but I’d much prefer he choose to defend standard shots and put himself in an area where he can excel – on the feet – instead of shooting for hail mary submissions which have never worked for him.
Poirier currently defends takedowns at 63 percent, and he’s been clearly outgrappled in recent fights by BSD, Chandler, and Oliveira. Even Dan Hooker took him down four times.
Poirier does a good job of surviving, which could play a role here, but it’s pretty unlikely he can outright defend takedowns. So the most likely outcome in my mind is that Makhachev has lots of ground success, which likely results in dominant positions, and potentially an early submission victory.
Surviving again would be key because it would extend the fight, force more stand up exchanges, and just add some variance to the table where Poirier could maybe hurt Makhachev. It’s still a tough task.
And Makhachev is really, really good on the ground. He dominated Charles Oliveira when they fought and submitted him in the second round. It’s very likely in my mind that he puts Poirier in extremely compromising positions on the mat, and at that point, I just have to pick him to win.
Even if Poirier can extend the fight, Makhachev can still dominate rounds and win a decision. He’s capable of going five rounds. He’s fine to hold back control for four minutes in a round if he has to.
Makhachev has also improved as an offensive striker, and of the two, it’s been Poirier who’s been knocked out cold much more recently than Makhachev. If I’m backing Makhachev I wouldn’t want him to stand for too long, but he can still do some damage there too.
Ultimately, Makhachev is one of the most dominant grapplers in the sport, and Poirier has consistently allowed opponents to take him down and put him in bad spots. There are still ways for him to survive and get his hand raised but it’s tough to project those to come at a high rate.
—
On DraftKings, Makhachev is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.5k, but he’s also clearly the best overall play on the board as well.
He’s a heavy favorite, north of -700 to win, in a fight that could last up to five rounds. He’s a grappling dominant fighter, in a matchup where he projects to wrestle with urgency.
Those aspects alone give him among the highest floors and ceilings on the entire slate. And he’s scored 113, 120 and 117 in recent wins . He’s an elite upside target and is very likely to put up a strong score in a win, and he can therefore be prioritized in all formats.
However, he’s also scored 94, 107, 101 and 100 in recent wins as well. And the difference between the big scores and mediocre scores might not be what you expect.
Essentially, it’s come down to randomness. The 107 and 101 scores both came in first-round finishes. The 94 point score actually came in a five round decision.
But his 120 point score came in a second-round win, and the 117 point score came in a fourth round win. It’s simply come down to how much offense Makhachev has produced prior to finishing the fight, and sometimes, his utter dominance has actually hurt him because his opponents have not been able to put up any resistance.
Against Poirier, I do think the matchup sets up well for Makhachev to reach a higher ceiling than average. Poirier is pretty poor at defending takedowns, but he also survives enough to resist for a while. A mid-round finish with several takedowns and lots of control seems fairly likely.
Or, Poirier could just obsessively jump on guillotines, which DK won’t score as takedowns, and that could kill off the upside from Makhachev.
It won’t change the fact that Makhachev is an elite target in all formats – he’s a lock for me in cash games and he’s -310 to win ITD which is outstanding. When I have the ability to pay up in tournaments, Makhachev is my favorite target by far.
But as we always talk about, great real-life performances aren’t always a direct correlation to great DK scores. He could smash Poirier, win by sub early, and put up 105. That likely would not be optimal.
For that reason, Makhachev is not a must play in tournaments. It’s possible that no cheap dogs win, and the optimal lineup simply won’t be able to afford him. Or potentially, another fighter in this top tier will also smash, beat Makhachev, and kick him off the optimal.
We’ll touch on the pivot options below, but it’s something worth considering depending on the size of your portfolio. I’ll expect to end up with a ton of Makhachev, as will the field, but I also won’t be stunned if his expensive price tag gets in the way of an optimal result.
Poirier at 6.7k isn’t a great target on paper, and it’s also possible he comes in higher owned than he should be, based on his metrics, and his name value.
He’s a +517 dog with a +525 ITD line, without any real grappling equity. If his name was Dustin Smith, he’d probably be 5% owned.
So with that in mind, it wouldn’t be wrong to fade Poirier outright with a medium or small sized portfolio.
I think the counter argument for me is that he’s actually a talented and experienced fighter, so at least you’re getting someone competent for the price. Plus, there will be obvious leverage against the field, with any kind of win from Poirier likely coming ITD and contending for the optimal.
There have also been rumors this week about Makhachev having staph, which is what BSD had and ultimately caused him to fatigue. I’m not particularly worrying about it unless the betting line moves a lot toward Poirier, but it’s just something to note for the narrative players.
The leverage alone is probably enough to consider a tiny bit of Poirier, on a small slate where few underdogs project to win. A sprinkle is fine and makes sense.
Anything above that feels like a major risk to me and I won’t plan on prioritizing Poirier in any sense. With a smaller portfolio, he’ll be closer to a fade, and I’ll just choose to invest in more win equity elsewhere.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Makhachev by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=High)
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
Fight Odds: Strickland -280, Costa +230
Odds to Finish: -155
DraftKings Salaries: Strickland 8.8k, Costa 7.4k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
The rise of Sean Strickland’s popularity has been one of the most interesting things I have seen while following MMA, and I have watched this sport since 2003 so I have seen a lot.
Strickland was fighting obscure competition for years from 2014 until 2018 and he really wasn’t even that well-known. Hardcore fans knew he was a decent fighter, but that was about it. Now he is one of the biggest stars in the sport because he has an eccentric personality that some people love and some people hate.
Strickland is also a star because he has simply become a very good and consistent fighter. His domination of Israel Adesanya to become the UFC middleweight champion was not a fluke, and I thought Strickland was being underestimated going into that matchup.
I have always liked Strickland’s game. He is an extremely skilled boxer and has some of the best head strike metrics not only in the middleweight division, but in all of the UFC. I won’t go into full detail but this guy not only outlands everyone to the head, he dominates them. He outlanded Israel Adesanya to the head 85-22 which is just incredible.
Strickland lands 5.91 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.33 in return. He defends strikes at 62 percent. Those are great metrics considering he has fought the best fighters in the world. And as mentioned above, when you adjust Strickland’s striking metrics to the head, they are even better.
Strickland also has tremendous cardio and will walk his opponents down all night and force boxing exchanges. He is just so comfortable in striking exchanges as he is well-known for his love of sparring, and you can just see it in his style. He is also very durable and has only been knocked out twice in the UFC, while fighting so many rounds against world class strikers.
Strickland doesn’t wrestle offensively much and only lands 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a skilled grappler though but he generally just uses it in reverse to keep fights standing. He is a good defensive wrestler and defends takedowns at a solid 77 percent.
Strickland is simply a world-class fighter and can arguably beat anyone in pure striking fights. He has great volume, skill, cardio, and durability.
Strickland will be taking on Paulo Costa. Costa is basically a brute striker. He will come forward and look to land powerful strikes, and will also work the body extremely well. He is dangerous and I do like his aggression. He lands 6.20 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.38 in return. He also has pretty good cardio and went to war with Marvin Vettori for five brutal rounds a few years back.
I don’t like Costa’s defense though. He absorbs more than 6 significant strikes per minute and only defends strikes at 47 percent. He is just there to be hit, and I don’t consider him a strong technical striker. He also just gets jabbed a lot as well.
Costa doesn’t really wrestle much and only lands 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has good defensive wrestling though, and defends takedowns at 80 percent with good scrambling ability.
Costa has just never actually beaten many great fighters. He beat the ghost of Luke Rockhold, an old Yoel Romero, Uriah Hall, and a fat Johny Hendricks. Anytime he has had a step up in competition, he has lost. Whittaker, Vettori, and Adesanya all beat him pretty clearly.
As far as this matchup goes, I expect it to take place on the feet. Both guys defend takedowns well and aren’t great takedown artists either. So I expect them to trade on the feet.
On the feet, Strickland is clearly a better technical boxer with superior defense. He should have a major advantage in the head strike numbers, and I really think he should be winning clearly if he does not get caught.
Strickland isn’t a huge finisher and Costa is very durable, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this went the distance. However, I do think Costa is very defensively void and Strickland hurting Costa via accumulation is possible.
I really think Costa needs to hurt Strickland to have a chance here. The issue is that Strickland is very durable and Costa hasn’t knocked anyone out since Uriah Hall in 2018. So I think it is unrealistic to expect Costa to randomly finish Strickland.
My guess is that these guys strike for the bulk of 25 minutes and Strickland consistently lands more head strikes throughout the fight to take a clear decision. I do think Costa could land something here and there and have some moments. However, Strickland is the better striker on paper and is the logical choice to pick to win.
—
On DraftKings, this will be another pivotal matchup given that it is our second five-rounder of the night.
Strickland is priced at 8.8k, and my expectation is that he will be among the most popular fighters on the board.
He’s priced right above the tier with Perez, Lima, Brown, Matthews and Kopylov, where there is a lot of uncertainty, and I’m not expecting many of those names to be stand outs. Strickland is sitting in the high -200s, which is a nice value at 8.8k, and it feels like a semi-favorable matchup for him.
I use that term because in a striking based matchup where both guys are gonna try to kill each other, there is obviously some variance. Costa hits extremely hard, and Strickland has been hurt before. It’s very possible Costa has some big moments, fights competitively at times, and/or hurts Strickland.
However, Strickland rates out as the far better five-round fighter, as he’s simply more consistent, and technical, with better cardio and volume.
Strickland has some risk of a bust given his style, in which he won’t choose to wrestle. He’s also only +140 to win ITD, so there’s no guarantee of an early KO. An extended striking fight is not the best way to score points, and so his ceiling may be slightly capped because of that.
But he’s also known for his volume, and Costa can absorb strikes at a high rate as well. Strickland scored 118 and 95 in his last two decision wins, and he would have scored 101 if he’d gotten his hand raised against Du Plessis. I think that’s a fair range of what we can expect if he wins on Saturday.
At 8.8k, if he falls into the 90s, perhaps he can get beaten out, though that’s still a strong floor. His upside is into the low 100s which would most likely put him in contention for the optimal lineup.
In theory, Strickland is one of the best floor plays on the slate, and he’s very affordable, which makes him easy to slot in for tournaments. I won’t mind pivoting on occasion, but I like Strickland a lot this week at this price, in a five-round fight, and I’ll expect to end up with moderate or more exposure to him personally.
Costa is one of the underdogs who I’ll consider at 7.4k, and there are definitely some benefits to targeting him.
First of all, he could win by KO. He’s +285 to win ITD which is pretty decent. He’s also gone the distance and landed 163 sig. strikes before, so there’s some possibility he could win a weird decision. Win equity is on the table, despite the matchup not favoring him.
I also like Costa’s price, and floor. He’s had some bad performances, but the fight projects to start round four, so 15-25 minutes of action would still allow Costa to potentially land upwards of 80-100 sig. strikes, or more.
This isn’t a slate where the public will feel super confident with a lot of dogs, so simply targeting Costa for five-round potential makes a lot of sense. It’s possible there’s a loser on the optimal lineup, and if there is, I think Costa is one of the most likely options.
Also, he should present solid leverage against Strickland, despite gaining ownership himself. With only one win in his last four fights, the public won’t be super excited here I don’t believe. Maybe they just won’t find anyone else to play.
The counter arguments would just be that we may see some completely overlooked fighters in this range, and taking a chance on another finisher is equally valuable. Other fighters may have better matchups, so I’m not really inclined to force Costa action in.
He just seems like a solid secondary target, with a nice price tag, with one of the better floors on paper. I’ll certainly have a mix of him because of this, but I think there’s similar merit to a handful of other fighters in this same range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Strickland by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Fight Odds: Holland -305, Oleksiejczuk +247
Odds to Finish: -260
DraftKings Salaries: Holland 9k, Oleksiejczuk 7.2k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a pretty fun striking fight here between the always entertaining Kevin Holland and Michal Oleksiejczuk. I want to note that this bout is taking place at middleweight and Kevin Holland will be moving back up after having a pretty long stint at welterweight.
Holland thrives as a striker. He lands 4.24 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.19 in return. Those are solid metrics.
In pure striking fights, Holland is quite good. Holland is very skilled and dangerous as a striker. He has crisp kicks and straight punches, and is very relaxed and always seems to find his target. He also stands at 6’3” with an 81” reach which was a big frame for middleweight.
Holland’s issue has always been his defensive grappling, and more specifically, his wrestling. He defends takedowns at 54 percent and can be held on his back. I do think his defensive wrestling has improved though and he has learned to scramble back up to his feet.
Holland is actually a decent submission grappler. Once he is taken down, he can retain guard and isn’t in a ton of danger. His issue is simply being controlled.
Holland is just a fun, striking based action fighter. He is dangerous and has some skill and volume. He also has good cardio and is generally a very tough guy.
Holland will be taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk, who is basically a striker and prefers to pressure box on the inside. I honestly have never minded Oleksiejczuk and when he can get pure striking fights, he isn’t bad. Oleksiejczuk lands 5.06 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.26 in return, and defends strikes at 61 percent. He has some sneaky power as well and doesn’t mind working the body.
Oleksiejczuk does have some issues though. He has been submitted in four of his last five losses and is a liability on the mat. He also only defends takedowns at 48 percent. He basically has no offensive wrestling threat either.
I have also seen Oleksiejczuk struggle when he can’t easily get on the inside on the feet. He doesn’t have a ton from outside range because he doesn’t possess long rage tools like kicks.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Holland is the rightful favorite as he has more ways to win. Holland is by far the superior submission grappler and if this fight gets to the mat for whatever reason (e.g., a takedown or knockdown), I do think Holland could submit Oleksiejczuk.
The issue is Holland doesn’t wrestle often and will probably strike. I don’t think Oleksiejczuk is completely in over his head here. Oleksiejczuk is a pretty tough guy, and he could have success on the inside in boxing range while pressuring Holland.
I still think Holland is the better range striker though. He likely can deal with Oleksiejczuk’s inside boxing storm and eventually get this fight on the outside where he can thrive with his length and kicks. I also think Holland is more likely to win inside the distance given his submission upside.
I will take Holland here. I think he is more talented with more paths to victory. However, this will likely be a striking fight where these guys aren’t separated by much on the numbers. So this could be competitive.
—
On DraftKings, I’m a little bit nervous that this fight doesn’t live up to potential, which is the same concern I had for Holland’s last fight against MVP.
But I also acknowledge the upside, which I think is mostly on Holland’s end, as Oleksiejczuk has shown to be breakable at times.
Holland is priced up to 9k and he’ll be a standard boom or bust option, and he’ll very likely need that finish to contend for the optimal lineup.
His DraftKings history has honestly been pretty disappointing though. The last two fights Holland won ITD, he only scored 95 and 82. I doubt either one would be optimal at 9k. In his last two losses, he scored 36 and 51.
He’s just not putting up enough offense to hit big scores, and his finishes don’t often come in round one. He’s a bit of a head case and is hard to trust with game planning.
However, Holland will be a lot longer than Oleksiejczuk, by seven inches. Oleksiejczuk will be forced to pressure, to get inside and box. I could see Holland slamming kicks and potentially hurting Oleksiejczuk while he tries to close distance. Oleksiejczuk has also been subbed four times in the UFC, so like Tim mentioned, Holland has some finishing upside if the fight ever ends up on the mat.
I definitely do not trust Holland, and I think there are at least a few other fighters I’d prefer outright between 9.5k-8.7k, so I’ll ultimately consider Holland a secondary, boom or bust target. But he is -125 to win ITD, which shows some finishing potential, and it’s not the worst matchup for him on paper either.
I’ll end up with a mix of Holland at his price, but more likely in situations where I need to save some salary from the top end.
Oleksiejczuk at 7.2k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
His primary upside has come with first-round KOs, which isn’t the best path to victory against Holland, who has not been knocked down in 22 tracked fights.
I do respect Oleksiejczuk as a boxer but it won’t be easy for him to close distance, nor does Holland absorb a ton of strikes in general. Oleksiejczuk doesn’t wrestle much either, so his paths to victory are pretty limited.
He is only +320 to win ITD, which isn’t horrendous. If you want to mix him in as a low-end salary punt, in a spot where he should be very low owned, I can get behind that for large field tournaments.
But I hate his floor, and I question his path to a ceiling. I’ll largely prioritize other underdogs in this range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Holland by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov
Fight Odds: Almeida -290, Romanov +236
Odds to Finish: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Almeida 9.1k, Romanov 7.1k
Weight Class: HW
One of my favorite fights on the slate, Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov should be the “People’s Main Event” and I’m really hopeful it delivers.
It’s also a very intriguing matchup for me to break down, because I’ve successfully faded both fighters in overhyped spots, and I’ve done so for similar reasons.
Both men profile as early dominators, and so when they are winning, they look incredible. Both are beasts on the mat, with high-end physical attributes, and it’s simply tough for most ordinary athletes to compete with that style at this weight class.
However, both have shown pretty extreme red flags in extended fights, which is also typically the case with fighters of this style. And ultimately, it means both men are breakable as well.
Romanov won his first five UFC bouts, which included four wins ITD and one win by decision. However, that decision came against Juan Espino, who was taking Romanov down and looked to have the better cardio late. Romanov got hit in the groin in the third round while getting pushed backward, and he never got back up, so the fight went to a judge’s decision.
Most people believe that he was exhausted and simply didn’t want to continue fighting.
The fade spot eventually came against Marcin Tybura, who often gets hurt, but has consistent cardio and a well-rounded skill set that will keep him competitive in rounds. Romanov dominated early, and completely fell off after the first round.
Then he got knocked out by Alexander Volkov in the first round.
Most recently, he went the distance with Blagoy Ivanov, who’s a notorious decision fighter. I suppose his cardio looked better there, but Ivanov is not going to push the pace, so I’m still skeptical how he’ll fare moving forward.
For now, I consider Romanov to be a high-end wrestling threat early in fights. He’s shown 5+ takedown upside, and that will generally come with brute force, which he will use to smother his opponents, land ground-and-pound, or lock up a submission.
The longer the fights go, the less energy he will have, and his takedowns will not come as easily. He is vulnerable at distance, and vulnerable on the mat once he is tired.
Jailton Almeida won his first six UFC bouts, which were nearly all finished in round one, and he faced almost no resistance at all until his last bout against Curtis Blaydes.
In those first six fights, Almeida literally absorbed 22 significant strikes in total, with 20 coming against Lewis. The other five fights were 0, 0, 1, 1 and 0.
He simply ran everyone over. He’s another physical beast, and more athletic than muscled up. He’s a good wrestler, and he’s a very good submission grappler.
The biggest red flag I saw came against Lewis, who Almeida dominated over five rounds, but exhausted himself in the process. He spent time in every possible dominant position, with Lewis providing almost no resistance, and I still felt he was almost broken at points.
Most recently, he finally got hit hard, and it led to the end of the fight almost immediately.
In that first round against Blaydes, Almeida again looked like a killer. He landed nine takedowns, forcing Blaydes to get up over and over again. By round two, he was tired, dove in a shot, and ate some punches to head against the cage. He got hurt, did not have the energy to defend himself or stand up, and the ref had to step in.
If I’m being honest, it was an awkward way to end the fight. Some would consider it shocking based on how the first round went. It wasn’t a pure gas out, but it’s also not great to see Almeida completely collapse and get TKOd.
For now, I expect Almeida will be able to outgrapple most fighters in the first round. Not only is he a high-quality athlete but his skills are legit as well. The combination is hard to stop, while he has energy.
The longer the fight goes, the less energy he will have, and the better chance opponents will have to defend his shots. From there, he surely looks vulnerable on the feet, and it’s quite possible he’ll continue to get hurt and collapse if he’s not in control.
So, how do these two match up?
It’s honestly a tricky fight to analyze, but ultimately, I think Almeida is the better wrestler and grappler.
Almeida is a more traditional wrestler and he can shoot in on double legs, and his submission game is more standard as well. Romanov relies on physicality more, and his submission game is built on brute force, and not as much on technique.
We’ve also seen Romanov give up four takedowns to a fighter in the UFC, where Almeida has only given up one (on DWCS).
If Almeida gets on top, I think he can transition to a dominant position and threaten for the finish. If Romanov gets on top, I don’t think it’s likely he can hold Almeida down or submit him.
The caveat of course comes with the cardio issues on both sides. Whoever gets tired first will likely lose. I think there will probably be a finish before that happens, but let’s say it’s an even fight heading into round three. At that point, it literally just comes down to energy, and you could make an argument for either side.
I’ve seen Almeida play from the guard before and so if he’s tired with Romanov on top of him, Romanov can punch him out for a TKO.
The other red flag of note I wanted to make was in that Romanov loss to Volkov. He got briefly hurt (hit) on the feet, but then he shot for a takedown, and Volkov sprawled, took his back and pounded him out.
Perhaps he was hurt, but that’s a really bad sign. Volkov is not an elite wrestler or grappler, and Romanov looked like he was quitting again. It also showed that he lacks a high level submission game because he immediately gave up his back and could not escape Volkov’s hooks.
It could spell disaster against a fighter like Almeida, who will definitely take his back if Romanov gives it to stand back up.
That’s my best guess as to what happens here. Almeida will prioritize wrestling, shoot some standard doubles, get Romanov down, take his back, and finish the fight. If not, he’ll have enough dominant positions to carry him through the fight and potentially win late.
I wouldn’t bet on Romanov taking Almeida down, but it’s possible. He’s physical enough to bully his way there. I’m just skeptical of him controlling Almeida, and it could just lead to him getting tired.
He played more at distance against Ivanov, landing 74 distance strikes in 15 minutes. That’s actually worth noting because it’s far more distance time than Almeida has ever had. It is entirely possible Romanov is the better and more comfortable distance striker.
I still think if either side is losing striking battles, they’ll just shoot takedowns and then it will come down to wrestling/cardio anyways. But in theory, Romanov might be a better distance striker or at least have a path there.
My worst nightmare is both guys being scared of getting tired, and perceiving the other to be a good wrestler, and just choosing to strike for 15 minutes in a terrible fight. It’s a possibility that would crush everyone’s hopes and dreams.
Almeida has never fought like that though, and he just landed a ton of takedowns against Blaydes who does have a wrestling base. So ultimately, my guess is that he pursues a wrestling attack once again, and I think his technique will be enough to get his hand raised again.
—
On DraftKings, it will be interesting to see how aggressively the public returns to Almeida, after he was outright chalk for the past seven fights.
With a lot of heavy favorites priced nearby, including multiple five-round options, I doubt Almeida is ultra-chalk on this slate.
However, he also did land nine takedowns before losing to Blaydes, and it’s still pretty easy to talk yourself into targeting him for the upside. That’s the conclusion I’ve come to personally.
I’m not certain how the fight will play out, but I’m pretty certain Almeida has elite upside baked into his style. That doesn’t mean it will go well 100 percent of the time, but I still think wrestling domination and an early finish is on the table.
And as a near -300 favorite, with a -150 ITD line, odds are seemingly high that he gets his hand raised.
For 9.1k, Almeida seems like a great option. There are of course other fighters worth targeting in this range, but Almeida is still among my favorite tournament targets for his grappling heavy style, and he presents some savings from the top end.
I’ll likely have moderate or more exposure, and I’m guessing the field will roster him pretty high as well.
Romanov at 7.1k is fine, but I’m not super excited by him. The primary reasons to target him would be that he too has a style to produce big scores in wins, and he could also be a strong leverage target against Almeida.
The combination of those two things – plus the fact that Almeida literally just collapsed and got TKOd – do feel like signals that we should be rostering Romanov. Especially if he’s not highly owned, which is quite possible.
It’s just the matchup that’s throwing me off. I was lower on Romanov than the public for a while and I don’t see this as being a great matchup on paper. I guess that’s why he’s a big dog.
So I’m probably not going to end up with tons of exposure here, but this is a tricky range and I don’t mind spreading out. That will include some of Romanov with a medium sized portfolio, and respecting the ceiling makes sense. He’s +315 to win ITD which is decent.
Romanov isn’t my favorite underdog of the week but he’s traditionally smashed in wins, and while I don’t expect him to get his hand raised too often, the price and ownership discounts definitely put him in play.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almeida by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Fight Odds: Brown -170, Zaleski +146
Odds to Finish: -125
DraftKings Salaries: Brown 8.5k, Zaleski 7.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a decent middle class fight between Randy Brown and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos this weekend.
Brown lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.33 in return. That is actually pretty decent considering his competition has been quite solid. I think Brown is a pretty good striker honestly. He can land long punches and kicks.
He is athletic and controls range with his frame. I do worry about his leg kick defense though. He has been BATTERED to the legs in many fights and even in fights that he has won. He just doesn’t know how to check leg kicks.
Brown’s main strength is his striking but he is also an okay submission grappler. He lands 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 74 percent. I don’t consider him a great control grappler or anything, but he is competent and actually sneakily has three submission wins in the UFC. So it is not a path to victory to completely rule out for him.
I think Brown is a fine fighter. He can win fights on the feet and is a competent enough grappler to where he can minimize the grappling success of others.
Brown will be taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Zaleski is a very experienced fighter and has been around for a very long time. He actually hasn’t lost since 2020 and just fought Rinat Fakretdinov to a draw as a huge underdog. Zaleski is a bit of a freestyle fighter. He can strike a bit and is a decent submission grappler.
Zaleski lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.33 in return. He will use punches and kicks on the feet, and he has some good striking diversity and will use other tools like knees. He also has power and is capable of knocking out and hurting opponents. Overall, I just consider Zaleski an experienced striker who is somewhat dangerous.
Zaleski only lands 0.43 takedowns per 15 minutes though and isn’t a great wrestler. He is a skilled grappler though and can threaten with submissions. He also defends takedowns at a solid 68 percent and has good scrambling ability. He mostly nullified Fakretdinov’s wrestling attack which was impressive.
Zaleski overall just doesn’t have a ton of holes and I consider him a solid, well-schooled fighter.
As far as this matchup goes, I generally think this will take place on the feet. Neither guy is a great offensive wrestler and both are good enough defensively as wrestlers. I generally think the winner of the striking here will be the winner of the fight.
I think this is a close fight, man. I understand why Brown is favored as he is the younger and more athletic guy. Brown also has a length advantage that can likely give Zaleski issues. Brown will probably have some success from the outside with his long range weapons.
However, Zaleski is a skilled striker with a ton of experience. Zaleski is also VERY tough and has only been knocked out one time in 14 UFC fights. He is arguably more durable than Brown. I also think Zaleski could have success going to the legs here if he chooses.
This is just a close fight. I don’t think either guy is outmatched. I think Brown can have success with his long range weapons, but I think Zaleski will find his target too and could hurt Brown. Neither guy separates much on the metrics either.
I am expecting a back and forth fight here where a random moment like a knockdown will probably swing the fight. Random moments are always hard to predict which makes this fight a tough call.
—
On DraftKings, I similarly feel that the fight is a tough mid-range option to attack, considering the lack of discrepancy between the two.
Brown is priced at 8.5k and he’s coming off a first-round KO win, so I could see him getting some attention. However, without grappling equity, Brown is very arguably a boom or bust target.
His previous decision wins have scored 73, 71 and 70, and he is only +190 to win ITD in this fight.
Zaleski literally got dropped one minute into his last fight, and he was knocked down three times by Jingliang in 2019, so there’s obviously some finishing upside with Brown. But those are just two examples in a 14-fight UFC career. Griffin also dropped him twice in 2017.
To be fair, Zaleski came back to beat Griffin, and he came back to earn a draw against Fakhretdinov, so the guy is very tough.
I do think Brown can hurt Zaleski, and targeting him for some finishing upside when you need savings is fine for tournaments. I’ll have some exposure. It’s hard to argue he’s an amazing play though, as you’re really just hoping for randomness to hit your way.
Zaleski is quite similar at 7.7k. Without wrestling equity, it’s hard to project a high floor and ceiling. His recent decision wins have only scored 49, 97 and 72. His ITD line has fallen from +340 to +275 this week , which is worth noting though.
I think the case for Zaleski is really the experience though. He beat the living hell out of Saint Denis, which looks very impressive in hindsight. He also has a couple of first-round KOs in 2018, including one against Sean Strickland.
The guy has upside in his style and he’s fairly well-rounded. Those big moments don’t come super often though.
Brown is fairly durable and tough, but Maddalena knocked him down, and Luque knocked him down twice. Niko Price knocked him out while laying on his back on the mat in 2018. He’s actually been hurt quite a few times in losses.
So it’s not out of the question for Zaleski to hurt Brown, and potentially have some sneaky KO upside. It’s quite hard to argue he’s a great play, and he ultimately just falls into a standard, secondary, boom or bust category. But I don’t expect Zaleski to be super popular, and he’s fine as a mix in.
The fight itself is only -125 to end ITD, so it’s not going to be at the top of the priority list, and the most likely outcome is an extended fight in which the winner does not hit value. But I’m not expecting extremely high ownerships, and there’s some merit to the idea that one side will hurt the other, which could make it a potentially sneaky semi-contrarian fight to invest in.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Brown by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov
Fight Odds: Almeida -117, Kopylov +102
Odds to Finish: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Kopylov 8.2k, Almeida 8k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a striker’s delight here when Roman Kopylov takes on Cesar Almeida this weekend. These guys are both skilled and dangerous kickboxers and it should be fun to watch as these two specialists face off.
I have been enjoying watching the success of Roman Kopylov. He was on quite a roll before losing to Anthony Hernandez in his last matchup. He battered Soriano on the feet a couple of fights ago, and eventually knocked him out. He also kicked Claudio Ribeiro’s head off into the outer realms of the universe.
Kopylov may be from Russia, but he is actually a striker. He fights out of the southpaw stance, has a good body kick, crisp boxing, and speed. Before his UFC debut, I actually thought he looked very solid on the regionals where he became the Fight Night Global middleweight champion. FNG is a solid Russian organization with promising talent. Kopylov just dominated the competition with his striking.
Kopylov lands 4.66 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.10 in return. He defends strikes at 60 percent. He is simply a solid striker and he has knockout power. He also has great cardio and was doing five rounds in FNG in his sleep. I think he can compete with most fighters on the feet in this division.
The issue with Kopylov is his grappling. He was beaten on the mat by Karl Roberson and Albert Duraev. He actually has good first layer takedown defense and defends at a solid 87 percent. The issue is that once he is actually grounded, he can allow dominant positions like mount and can’t really get up. Good grapplers can definitely take advantage of him which we saw Hernandez do in Kopylov’s last matchup. Kopylov is tough to actually get down though.
I don’t think Kopylov will have to worry about his defensive grappling in this matchup against Cesar Almeida though. Almeida is a kickboxer through and through.
Almeida is 5-0 professionally in MMA and hasn’t really fought anyone yet. He won his fight on the Contender Series, but a lot of that fight took place in grappling positions. Almeida knocked out Dylan Budka in his UFC debut as well, but he was primarily being taken down and held against the cage until Budka gassed.
Before the UFC, Almeida just quickly knocked out terrible opponents. Most of his MMA tape is kind of worthless honestly.
However, Almeida comes from a kickboxing pedigree and actually has a decision win over Alex Pereira in kickboxing. He is 47-8 in kickboxing and has never been knocked out in his professional kickboxing career, so he obviously is a tough guy.
I watched Almeida’s kickboxing fights and MMA fights and he obviously has good kickboxing skills. So obviously some of these skills will successfully translate to MMA. He has some thumping leg kicks and has ruthless punching power. He honestly can probably strike with anyone in MMA given his background and I think he is an interesting addition to this division because of that.
Almeida surely could have holes though. I have seen him taken down and any decent grappler could have success against him in general. I just need to see more of him.
As far as this matchup goes, I think these guys will look to strike and I honestly lean Almeida because of that. I mean Almeida is the better striker from a credential perspective, and if these guys strike for 15 minutes, my guess is Almeida will be more likely to win and more likely to win by knockout given Almeida’s durability track record in kickboxing. I mean just given Almeida’s background, I think it is possible he could dominate. I doubt Kopylov will just dominate Almeida in a pure kickboxing fight given Almeida’s background.
This fight could get wacky though. I honestly think either of these guys could have success in top position if they randomly get it. I have much more faith in Kopylov actually landing takedowns because Kopylov has better pure takedown defense, but these guys are messy enough on the mat where something weird can happen.
I just keep imagining this fight taking place on the feet though and why wouldn’t I take Almeida who was ranked as the second best middleweight kickboxer on earth at one point? I may be picking Almeida more on theory here than based on his actual MMA tape. However, I just think this will be a striking fight and I think it makes sense to pick the extremely credentialed kickboxer in this matchup.
—
On DraftKings, the tricky part isn’t really determining the matchup dynamic, but whether either fighter has a legit opportunity to win by early KO.
In theory both fighters will strike. Yes, favoring Almeida is fine for pedigree. He’s still 36 years old, and Kopylov has never been KOd in MMA either.
Despite flipping the line as a favorite, Almeida is only +205 to win ITD, which is pretty mediocre. Kopylov actually has the better ITD line as of Thursday at +190.
It’s not a fight that I feel great about targeting either just due to the extreme bust risk on either side. It would be a surprise to see either wrestle with any urgency and striking volume is not likely to be enough.
If one side ends up popular, I’m assuming it will be Almeida. I’m unsure how I’ll end up projecting it because he’s only -120 (as opposed to like -200), so it’s a mild value, with a questionable ITD line. But I can also see a lot of people leaning toward the savings of Almeida, and/or mostly avoiding Kopylov altogether.
My personal preference would be to not let this one kill me, and aim to be near the field on both sides.
If there’s a side to be overweight on, in theory it’s probably Kopylov at 8.2k who likely ends up lower owned, is younger and more experienced in MMA, and has the better ITD line. But I don’t rate him as a great play and I’m not picking him to win or win by KO. It would just be hoping he randomly hurts Almeida.
And Almeida perhaps has more KO upside than I expect given the small sample, but it still doesn’t feel like an easy challenge to finish Kopylov. I’d be a little worried about fading him outright but I certainly won’t be able to match the field if he ends up as chalky.
This is just a pretty extreme boom or bust fight, with a -190 line on Over 1.5 rounds, so I’m fairly nervous and wouldn’t label either better than a secondary target. Again, just trying not to get killed here.
Slight lean toward Almeida given the matchup but I expect he will be the more popular public target too.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Almeida by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki
Fight Odds: Dawson -503, Solecki +375
Odds to Finish: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Dawson 9.3k, Solecki 6.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After compiling an impressive 8-0-1 record in his first 9 UFC fights, Grant Dawson suffered his first loss to Bobby Green last October by randomly getting knocked out in round one. The outcome didn’t completely shock me as Dawson has been hurt before and isn’t a strong striker, but I do think it was a bit of a random outcome.
I want to be upfront that I like Grant Dawson. I interviewed him on my youtube channel here and he could not have been nicer in that conversation and in other conversations that I have had privately with him.
However, it won’t impact my ability to give objective analysis in his matchup here or in future matchups. There are plenty of guys I would pick Dawson to beat while there are a handful of guys I would pick to beat Dawson.
It is no secret that I have always liked Grant Dawson’s fighting style. I like high-volume wrestlers as they win at such a high rate against average UFC level competition.
Volume wrestling is obviously Dawson’s strength. He lands 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 12 takedowns per fight. He also has generally had cardio to keep up that high volume style so he can break opponents with his pace.
A part of Dawson’s game that I like that may not get a ton of credit, is his ability to produce offense on top by landing ground-and-pound, and his passing and underrated submission grappling game.
Dawson’s ground-and-pound is good. He landed plenty against Erosa, Santos, and Minner. He won’t just lay in guard and is always thinking about ways to score.
I also think he is an underrated submission grappler. He is a BJJ black belt and has advanced position 32 times on 30 takedowns landed in the UFC. He also has a super powerful back mount. Just go watch his fight against Erosa and Trizano and you will see what I am talking about.
He finished Trizano from that position and kept threatening Erosa with it. It is something I noticed with him early in his career and I do think he will continue to occasionally get finishes from that position. He also got the RNC vs Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen.
I just like that Dawson uses body triangles as well. He is very efficient at taking the back and putting in his body triangle. In his most recent win vs Ismagulov, Dawson scored one takedown at the beginning of each round, popped in the body triangle, and held position for the remainder of each round. Every single round in that fight basically looked identical. It is also good that Dawson knows what to do in his fights to win. He has never really deviated from his path to victory of grappling in any UFC fight.
Dawson’s striking is definitely his weakness. He lands 2.97 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.27 in return. His metrics are actually decent but it is padded by his ground-and-pound. His striking is a means to an end more than anything. He wants to limit engagements just to land takedowns. Good strikers who can keep fights standing vs Grant will definitely school him.
Dawson’ s matchup (a draw against Ricky Glenn) concerned me. Dawson won the first two rounds cleanly and in a way that you would expect, by outgrappling Glenn. Then in round three, Dawson seemed to fade. He shot for a takedown at the beginning of the round, failed, and was held down for the remainder of the round. He couldn’t get up, he got battered with strikes, and was literally saved by the bell from getting submitted. It was a bad look for Dawson.
I hadn’t seen Dawson on his back all that often. The fact that he couldn’t get up from Glenn just concerns me. It was also weird because I generally considered Dawson’s cardio to be one of his strengths. He definitely seemed to slow down vs Glenn though.
Maybe if Dawson was tired and in top position, he would have been fine. However, he looked exhausted and uncomfortable on his back. One-time cardio dumps can just happen. Maybe it was an outlier as I generally think Dawson has shown decent cardio throughout his career. I still didn’t love that it happened though.
Dawson will be taking on Joe Solecki. Solecki is a BJJ black belt and grappling is definitely his strength. I also like that Solecki actually seems to have decent takedowns. He lands 2.65 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at 50 percent. He is capable of taking down average grapplers.
On the mat, Solecki is very dangerous with his back takes. He can slap in body triangles and hold position. He is also an extremely dangerous submission grappler which he showed in his RNC win against Austin Hubbard.
Solecki does have his issues though which is why I was not nearly as high on him as others were earlier on in his UFC career.
First, Solecki’s striking is not great. He lands 2.21 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.53 in return. Those are fine ratios but only because Solecki has most of his opponents in control positions on the mat. Solecki just isn’t all that dangerous as a striker and doesn’t have a ton of volume. Alex Da Silva was beating him up on the feet and Jared Gordon outlanded him as well.
I don’t think Solecki is terrible as a striker, but he is at risk to lose fights there against plenty of guys.
Second, Solecki is kind of bad on his back. He just plays guard. He is still dangerous as a submission grappler and his opponents can’t do much to him on the mat. However, he can be controlled on the mat and has lost multiple rounds on his back including to Jim Miller, Alex Da Silva, and Jared Gordon. It just makes me nervous that he can be taken down and controlled.
Still though, Solecki is a decent wrestler and a good back taker who can absolutely wreck weak grapplers on the mat.
As far as this matchup goes, it should be fun because these guys are very good grapplers in their own way.
On the feet, this could get very ugly and I honestly don’t even know who I would pick to win there. It is really anyone’s guess. They both are unskilled and can be hurt on the feet.
These guys shoot so many takedowns though so I think the winner of the grappling exchanges will win this fight. So I will focus on the grappling analysis.
I think Dawson is the rightful favorite here simply because he is the better wrestler and takedown artist. We have just seen Solecki controlled for entire rounds on his back before and Dawson is honestly the best pure takedown artist that Solecki has faced. Dawson should be able to land takedowns and secure top position when he wants and my guess is that Dawson will rack up enough control time to win this fight. I also think Dawson has superior cardio in this matchup as well.
I do think Solecki presents some challenges for Dawson though. I am not sure Dawson can just pass Solecki’s guard easily here. I wouldn’t be shocked if Dawson did as Dawson is a good passer. However, Solecki is very skilled as a BJJ player and Dawson’s grappling success here may just be limited to being stuck in laying in Solecki’s guard, which limits Dawson’s grappling ceiling more than in other matchups.
Furthermore, I do think Solecki could potentially get a backtake here. We have seen Dawson taken down. So Solecki getting a random backtake and threatening Dawson would not shock me. I still don’t think Solecki will be able to control Dawson in any other way on the mat though. The control would have to be a body triangle or an immediate submission. I do think it is at least possible.
This is a fun one. Solecki is a skilled enough grappler to maybe neutralize or threaten Dawson in ways we have not seen previous opponents of Dawson do. However, Dawson is surely a better takedown artist and control wrestler. I also think Dawson is just a smart fighter who is a skilled grappler and can probably stay out of danger by being mindful on the mat. My guess is Dawson racks up control time and uses his cardio to edge out rounds and take over this fight.
—
On DraftKings, I don’t have a great feeling about this matchup.
It’s really tough to get excited by Dawson, considering he’s fighting an opponent who excels on the mat. That’s why despite a heavy -500 moneyline, he’s only +155 to win ITD which is poor.
Solecki has not even allowed more than one takedown in eight tracked fights, though he’s only had to defend two.
And at 9.3k, Dawson needs to smash to beat out the rest of this group. It feels tough to project that.
The case for Dawson is that he’s still grappling oriented and will be contrarian. He could in theory land 3-5 takedowns and control Solecki for the majority of the fight. Doing some math in my head, I could see a scenario where he scores around 80 points in a decision, excluding non-sig. strikes.
If he lands another 50 non-sig. strikes, that would push him up to 90. It still feels like he’d need that, plus a late-round finish to really contend for the optimal, and I don’t know how great I feel about that.
Dawson feels fairly safe based on wrestling ability, but I am definitely concerned about the ceiling. Given the price point, I doubt I will end up choosing him often over the majority of this price range.
With that said, I doubt the public will either, so he’s definitely a contrarian target worth mentioning. At least he has the grappling profile, which is half the battle. Pivoting to Dawson to be unique isn’t a terrible idea and would be smart to do occasionally if you’re working with a large portfolio.
There’s also merit to just avoiding him for the most part, and taking extra chances on some of the boom or bust KO artists priced below.
Solecki at 6.9k has some viability based on price and fighting style.
A win for Solecki likely comes with grappling equity. Dawson is currently defending takedowns at 40 percent which sucks. We’ve seen Dawson hurt. We’ve seen Dawson gassed out. There are ways for Solecki to overperform expectations.
It’s also not a great matchup because he’s fighting a skilled grappler, so it just feels tough to project him for consistent success.
He mostly comes into play for pricing, and punting just to make a lineup work is honestly reasonable. On a slate where we could see a loser end up optimal, you can also make a case for Solecki given the fight is -170 to go the distance. His floor could be better than others in this range and he has some cash viability because of that as well.
I honestly don’t hate Solecki and I think I will end up with a sprinkle of him – but it’s primarily due to pricing and the slate dynamic. Ultimately he’s a big ML dog and is only +850 to win ITD, so it’s fair to put him somewhat low on the priority list.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dawson by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Phil Rowe vs. Jake Matthews
Fight Odds: Matthews -155, Rowe +134
Odds to Finish: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Matthews 8.3k, Rowe 7.9k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Phil Rowe is a Contender Series alum who’s had an interesting run through five fights so far in the promotion – he’s 3-2 in the UFC and 10-4 as a pro. Jake Matthews is entering his 11th year on the active roster and is an interesting fighter as a guy who had to grow up in the UFC – he’s 12-7 in the UFC and 19-7 as a pro.
The striking component:
Rowe is a freakishly long guy for the division standing 6’3” with an 80” reach. He’s shown elements of being able to work behind his length but other times, not so much.
Rowe eats 4.32 SApM at 54%. He’s also been hurt significantly multiple times in the UFC but has recovered to his defense.
But offensively, he lands 3.94 SLpM at 52% which isn’t great, but that low mark is primarily due to lots of grappling exchanges in his fights. He lands more than 6.0 strikes per minute at distance, has some fast hands, power and we’ll unload on guys when he smells blood in the water – six of his 10 pro wins have come via strikes.
I think part of his defensive issues are his footwork – if he could really hone that in, Rowe would be even more lethal than he already is.
Overall, he’s potent offensively but poor defensively.
Matthews’ game on the feet is interesting. He will play the mid-range game at times but will often accept the back foot.
He more so fights in flurries and doesn’t really put on a consistent pace over the course of a fight which has given credence to some close striking affairs.
In doing so, his output is on the lower end – 3.3 SLpM at 45% — 3.7 at distance at 38% — not great. His defensive metrics are pretty solid though sitting at 2.6 SApM at 60% — 67% at distance.
So, Matthews issues aren’t so much defensive based (in the aggregate) but that he can be backed up and slow down over 15 minutes.
Meek outstruck him and won the third round of their fight after a lot of grappling success early from Matthews, and he was also hurt in the 3rd – not a great look. We also saw him slow against Li, Brady and Morales in the latter rounds.
But I also don’t love his willingness to brawl at times as he will drop his head on his hooks – you don’t see a ton of straight punches from Matthews.
He does have some power though and despite only having two UFC KO, he’s scored five KDs, and he hurt Martin as well.
I will also say that Matthews looked excellent in his fight with Fialho where we saw a more consistent pace and he generally just looked very clean.
But then he nearly died three times against Semelsberger on every blitzing attempt that came in, and ultimately lost the fight. Kind of interesting because Fialho and Semelsberger have some parallel components and Matthews looked diametrically different in both outings.
Overall, Matthews’ stand-up is okay, but his output and optics aren’t great over 15 minutes if he’s not landing those knockdowns or when he’s not fighting inferior strikers.
How it plays out: The striking is weird here given the inconsistency, not only fight to fight, but round to round for both guys. The on-paper advantages Rowe has is in size and distance volume. The advantage for Matthews is on the defensive end but once again, depending on his approach, that could change. Coupled with an interesting note that Rowe will be the longest guy that Matthews has fought so far in his last 10 years in the UFC. Both have power and have generally been durable but can also be hurt. I ultimately come more out on the Rowe side though for length and volume purposes, coupled with me trusting him more in the back half of this fight standing.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Rowe has decent grappling credentials, holding a BJJ black belt status. He’s finished four of his 10 pro wins via submission but I was only able to find one of them on tape.
Rowe kind of falls in the “kitchen sink BJJ guy” category for me where he will stand and strike for extended periods because he’s fine with being taken down to play from his back at times.
However, I’ve also seen him pull guard and get stuck there for periods of time as well. But he will be aggressive in attacking subs and sweeps from bottom.
One of the main issues I have with Rowe is that he’s a subpar wrestler which in general is always a pet peeve of mine for base BJJ fighters.
Now as touched on, Rowe’s hands are pretty good so it’s not as much of a knock. But he only stuffs TDs at 59%, to his defense, he is eventually able to work up.
He did take a couple grappling matches recently where he got washed out by Checco and Steele but really no shame there as they’re both higher level black belts.
Overall, you can’t really trust Rowe to wrestle with much consistency, but he did get to the back in his last couple fights. Despite his grappling pedigree, the floor is how he’s lost minutes in multiple fights.
Matthews has shown some wrestling chops as he lands 1.59 TDs per 15 minutes and gets them at 40%.
When on top, he’s shown good control components with 40% of his fight time spent grappling, and of that 40%, he’s in control positions 62% of the time.
Matthews is a BJJ black belt and has five sub victories in the UFC, but three of them came down at 155 lbs. One of which was over a world-class black belt in Vagner Rocha which was pretty impressive but an anomaly in fairness.
Defensively, he stuffs TDs at 62% which isn’t great but his struggles on the mat came more so at 155 lbs. He was submitted against Martin though after he shot sloppy and got his neck wrapped up – did sweep Martin at the end of the 2nd round though.
We saw him look pretty poor on bottom against Brady, but Brady also is a top 15 fighter, a good wrestler and a solid black belt which needs to be noted – Brady outwrestled Michael Chiesa (largely) not that long ago for context.
Him getting taken down three times by Semelsberger though isn’t a particularly good look.
The issue with Matthews despite the higher strength of comp he’s looked poor against, is that he has put himself on bottom going for guillotines (which I hate) and has played guard dropping minutes there. He also doesn’t urgently attempt takedowns in matchups where it might favor him.
Overall, Matthews is stronger when he’s in control positions, but his bottom game hasn’t looked great.
How it plays out: This is where I’d favor Matthews potentially more cleanly. He’s the better wrestler of the two who’s more consistent to shoot TDs, at least in the aggregate, and he’s good from top positions. Once again though, trusting Matthews to wrestle hard on a fight-to-fight basis is kind of difficult at this point. But given Rowe historics, I would project multiple TDs for Matthews in this fight assuming that’s the gameplan, and he should be able to rack up some decent minutes. I do think there is some merit to Rowe should he get on top or find the back of Matthews – has some club and sub potential as well. But I’d give Matthews an overall higher ground ceiling here.
This is one of the trickier fights on the card to call given the inconsistency of both. I’m ultimately going to side with the dog in Phil Rowe primarily based on the fact that Matthews seems to have fallen in love with his hands in recent years. That’s not to say he can’t compete with Rowe, if not beat him on the feet necessarily, but it just wouldn’t be an optimal gameplan.
Matthews shot zero TDs against Fialho who can’t wrestle, only shot two on Semelsberger who’s not good on the bottom, officially landed zero TDs on Flowers who’s a bad grappler despite ultimately submitting him and he only shot one TD on Morales in a fight he was losing on the feet. So if recent historics are any indication here, Matthews is going to want to strike with Rowe largely in which I’d favor Rowe on the feet.
—
On DraftKings, it’s another somewhat tricky fight but I think it’s one I am interested in targeting.
Matthews is priced at 8.3k and he has some upside in his style. He can wrestle at times, and he has power in his hands. Lots of his wins have come ITD. He’s now fighting an opponent in Rowe who has weak TDD, and can be hurt.
It seems reasonable to believe Matthews could score well in a win, though I guess I consider him boom or bust. His lack of consistency in the wrestling department is really concerning in general. He could attempt anywhere from 0-10 takedowns in this fight, and I’d project it on the smaller side given his recent trends.
And he just won’t land enough strikes to score optimally without big damage. He is +250 to win ITD, which isn’t great.
I think the upside for me really lies in that Rowe is way longer, and the better boxer with more volume than Matthews. Matthews sitting at range and pitter/pattering won’t get the job done. It will force him to grapple, hopefully, or hurt Rowe to get the win.
I doubt Matthews will be too popular at 8.3k, and it’s possible he’s outright contrarian in this range. I’m not saying he’s a safe or great play in general, but I do think there are paths to upside. He’s someone I wouldn’t mind using as a secondary target or being a bit overweight on if he projects to be low owned.
Rowe at 7.9k is my pick the win the fight, really because I have no faith Matthews will actually grapple. If he doesn’t Rowe will get ahead on the numbers most likely.
The problem there is that a volume based decision still probably won’t score a ton. Rowe could land 80-100 sig. strikes, and put up a 70-point DK win, which isn’t ideal. There’s some possibility he could get beaten by a loser priced well below him.
The upside case is that he could hurt Matthews. Matthews just got dropped 3x by Semelsberger. Volume + KDs + a TKO win would produce an optimal score, and Rowe has the same ITD line as Matthews at +250.
My guess is that without a big history of DK upside, Rowe won’t be too highly owned.
I do like him somewhat because Matthews is a traditionally inconsistent fighter, and I like some of the tools Rowe has for this specific matchup. I also think he has real win equity, whereas many other dogs on this slate do not.
I probably won’t get too carried away due to some bust risk even in a striking based win, but I’m fine using him as a secondary target and I think the matchup could be a bit sneaky.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rowe by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Niko Price vs. Alex Morono
Fight Odds: Morono -267, Price +220
Odds to Finish: -185
DraftKings Salaries: Morono 8.9k, Price 7.3k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We actually have a rematch here between Alex Morono and Niko Price. These guys fought all the way back in 2017, when Morono was basically dominating Price, but got knocked out cold at the end of the second round.
I have always been a bit higher on Alex Morono than the rest of the MMA betting market. I think he has generally proven me right as he has sneakily put together a solid UFC career with 13 UFC wins, including six of his last eight.
Morono has some holes in his game though, as he is not very athletic or physically strong. He also has weak defensive wrestling and only defends takedowns at 55 percent. He is a candidate to get stuck in bottom position for stretches as his get-up game is not very strong.
Other than that though, Morono is honestly a pretty solid fighter. The best part of his game is probably his striking. He lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.16. Those are decent numbers. He also has good cardio and can keep up a steady pace. He landed 176 significant strikes and three takedowns against Rhys McKee without slowing down, so his cardio is pretty trustworthy.
Morono is a competent submission grappler, with a good guillotine, and holds a black belt in BJJ. He has never been submitted in his professional and amateur career which spans 36 fights.
Morono doesn’t really grapple offensively though. He lands 0.32 takedowns per 15 minutes so his takedowns are basically non-existent. In fact, Morono’s first takedown landed in the UFC was against Rhys McKee, which was his 11th UFC fight, where he landed three takedowns. He then landed a takedown against Pettis as well. I don’t really expect him to take anyone down except weak defensive grapplers.
Morono’s durability has cost him before. He was knocked out by Khaos Williams, Niko Price, and Santiago Ponzinibbio. He was also knocked down by Matthew Semelsberger. He has had plenty of fights so he isn’t getting knocked out all the time or anything, but his durability does scare me a bit. I also thought he looked a bit off against Court McGee in his last fight even though he won the decision.
Morono will be taking on Niko Price. Price was last seen in the cage back in July of 2023 getting knocked dead by Robbie Lawler in Lawler’s retirement fight.
Price is just a wild man. He isn’t a very skilled guy, but he is very aggressive and has big power so he can make things happen.
Price lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.60 in return. He only defends strikes at 48 percent. He is hittable, and has been hurt badly and knocked down plenty of times before. However, he is very aggressive and can put up a pretty high pace. He can hurt anyone and can definitely outwork opponents over the course of a fight.
Price is not very skilled as a grappler. He lands 0.70 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 64 percent. He can get on top and land some ground and pound, but I don’t really expect him to easily outgrapple guys at this level. Price is generally limited to knocking opponents out or outworking them on the feet for three rounds.
As far as this matchup goes, my guess is it will generally play out on the feet as neither guy wrestles persistently. Maybe a takedown lands on either side, but my guess is the winner of the striking will win the fight.
I do think Morono is the more skilled fighter and he is superior defensively. I think he can land more often and land cleaner on Price. It could result in Morono just winning clean rounds, or honestly even knocking Price out. Price just gets hurt so much. I do lean Morono simply because his striking metrics are better and he is more skilled.
I am just nervous here though. Price is very dangerous and aggressive, and has literally knocked Morono out once before. Morono just lacks athleticism and he can be hurt. As well. Both of these guys just get hurt so often that it is really hard to pick a winner in general. This is a fight I am not confident in at all.
I am still going to go with Morono. He is the better defensive fighter and is more likely to win rounds, and he may honestly be just as likely or more likely to win inside the distance. Price is a wild man though, and his fights are always extremely high-variance and wild. So don’t be surprised by any outcome here.
—
On DraftKings, I am actually expecting Price to be the more popular option of the two, though it’s still possible the public won’t be excited to punt with him.
He’s priced down to 7.3k, and as mentioned, he’s already knocked Morono out once. This isn’t a slate filled with comfortable underdogs, and at least we know Price is a finisher.
That’s honestly why I like Price as well, somewhat. He’s only +310 to win ITD, but I’ve seen Morono hurt very badly multiple times before. Price’s UFC wins have scored 78 (decision), 107, 114, 94, 102, 104 and 105. I generally expect him to win ITD if he wins at all.
Am I going to outright prioritize Price at 7.3k? Probably not. But I do think he carries upside in his style, in a matchup that will be high-variance. He’ll have potential to land something big, and he’s cheap enough to mix in as a secondary target.
Perhaps he’ll be a bit higher owned than he should be given the lack of strength in this range, and so I’m not necessarily aiming to be extremely overweight. But he’s one of the dogs I would look toward first, if I am dropping below Costa at 7.4k.
Morono will be a contrarian tournament option at 8.9k, coming off another contrarian spot against McGee in which he failed, and almost lost.
Morono just isn’t a finisher. He doesn’t have much grappling equity and he doesn’t win by knockout very often. He was fighting McGee who was clearly on his way out of the UFC and had been hurt a bunch, and only managed to land 38 strikes in that fight.
It wasn’t a great look.
Now he’s priced up again, against an opponent who has been KOd in most of his UFC losses, and I’d bet on the public avoiding Morono for the most part. With elite grapplers in this range, and five-round options, it’s really hard to prioritize Morono at all.
But theoretically, it’s possible these guys just box and Morono randomly hurts Price. That’s the upside case. He’s +110 to win ITD which is decent, and strong enough to put him in play as a real contrarian option if you’re willing to take the risk.
I probably am not too willing, if I’m being honest, but that’s likely only due to the bust risk. If I need to be unique within this range, Morono is a fine option and someone I’d definitely mix in for that purpose in large fields. It’s just hard to trust his ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Morono by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Mickey Gall vs. Bassil Hafez
Fight Odds: Hafez -438, Gall +335
Odds to Finish: -145
DraftKings Salaries: Hafez 9.2k, Gall 7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Mickey Gall will be entering his 9th year on the active roster to where he’s had a mixed bag of results. He’ll be returning from a two-year layoff as well – he’s 6-5 in the UFC and 7-5 as a pro. Bassil Hafez is the former Fury FC 170 lb champ who turned some heads in a short notice debut loss to Jack Della Maddalena this past July – he’s 8-4-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Gall’s a lanky guy for the division standing 6’2” with a 74” reach.
He’s a grappler by base so his stand up has left a bit more to be desired over the years.
In his defense, I have seen some maturation in his standup in some of his more recent fights, as it appears there’s a bit more process with it now, but he’s still not a great striker.
He’s struggled to string together combinations over the course of his career as he can be overcommital with more blitzing types of shots.
However, he’s shown some sneaky power elements with a couple UFC knockdowns and has hurt a few other guys as well – specifically Jordan Williams a few fights back so he’s not a guy who opponents can sleep on either because he can sneak stuff in.
But in facing some of the better strikers in guys like Brown, Perry, Morono and Malott, he’s by and large struggled and was hurt in three of those four fights.
Even him having competitive minutes with a guy like Salim Touahri who turned out to be a bum is concerning – he got hurt by the ghost of Diego Sanchez as well.
Overall, he’s still only 32 years old and we haven’t seen him for two years now, training at Kill Cliff FC down in Florida, so I would anticipate improvements from Gall standing. But it’s pretty hard to have much faith in him minute to minute in more extended exchanges across from a capable opponent.
Hafez is more known for his grappling, so his stand-up has left a bit more to be desired.
He can be very static/robotic in his movements, which does make his strikes more predictable for opponents.
But I do think his striking looked a lot better in his rematch with Cutts where he was flowing and moving a lot better – it just seemed like he had some more confidence and process – granted Cutts isn’t a very good striker.
Given his ground base, he hasn’t shown to be a crazy power threat throughout his career, but he has hurt a couple opponents and did score a really nice counter hook KO in his last regional outing.
He threw down with Maddalena in the short notice debut where he landed some really solid shots but was ultimately outstruck at the end of the day 83 to 32.
Overall, his pacing can be inconsistent and he’s not a great striker, but has proven his toughness.
How it plays out: The stand up seems semi-variable to me because I don’t rate either guy on the feet all that much. Gall will be the longer guy but he’s not a fighter who really uses it effectively with consistency, and I’ve seen him hurt more than Hafez. However, I think both guys are capable of hurting each other here because their defense is poor. I also don’t love the pacing of either guy.
The wrestling/grappling component:
As noted, Gall is a grappler by base and reps a BJJ black belt.
The floor has been the ultimate factor in his UFC successes with five of his six promotional wins coming via RNC. However, he’s not a good wrestler, only landing 1.2 TDs per 15 minutes at 30%.
He has shown some good timing on his TDs at times though, when guys overextend on shots to where he can shoot under, but being a base jiu jitsu guy, he doesn’t really possess much chain wrestling as someone who needs the initial entry or the opening to transition to the back quickly.
It also needs to be noted that the bulk of guys he’s had success on have been relatively negative grapplers.
Defensively, he’s had struggles with the defensive wrestling, only stuffing TDs at 36% — part of that is also that Gall can pull guard or pull for guillotine attempts which contributes to that number.
Outside of sweeping Randy Brown, he will throw stuff up and has an active guard, but will play from his back to where he’s gotten ridden out or pounded on as well – Brown ultimately top timed him, Sanchez pounded him out and Mike Perry even took ground minutes from him which isn’t the best of looks as a base brawl-boxer.
Overall, Gall has respectable jiu-jitsu as a guy opponents don’t want on their back but he’s going to have to patch up his overall wrestling game because he can be shut out and/or give away rounds fishing.
Hafez comes from a wrestling background and is a BJJ black belt.
His best work has come on the ground in being able to power through on double legs to accrue some top time or set up his submission game. However, his control game hasn’t always been the best as he does have submission over position elements where he’ll be aggressive in attacking.
He often doesn’t get the first attempts as well, specifically in his first fight with Cutts and Ivy, he had both in some deep stuff but couldn’t finish – he also had dominant position on now UFC fighter Jeremiah Wells back in the day.
In referencing all three of those fights, there was a draw and two split decisions.
He only went 3/20 on TDs against Maddalena but accrued nearly seven minutes of control time, winning the 1st round and forcing a draw – he showed a lot of heart and toughness there but objectively, TDs were coming from Jack primarily pulling guillotines and putting himself on bottom.
I would say one of Hafez’s worst attributes is that his cardio just isn’t great in grappling intensive affairs against guys who can defend and work out of stuff.
He really starts to slow down after a round in which he ends up conceding TDs or dominant positions himself – to his credit, he’s shown good submission defense even when he’s tired to scramble and re-shoot.
But the moral of the story is, he’s just not having complete performances in extended grappling fights.
How it plays out: The floor is semi-interesting here as I’ve seen good and bad of both. But I come down on the Hafez side because I feel he’s the physically stronger party and pretty clearly the better pure wrestler in the matchup. Despite some of the documented cardio issues of Hafez, Gall doesn’t have great cardio either and tends to gas out when he’s being wrestled. Hafez has shown the ability to work/fight out of bad positions, but I do have some concerns here if Gall gets the back because that’s his best position and we’ve seen Hafez give the back in three different fights. He’s still never been finished though and I feel the wrestling is the difference maker.
Fun matchup between two east coast boys. Given what I just referenced with the wrestling, I like Hafez to win this fight. But as noted, there are still many negative attributes about him to where he’s not a guy I fully trust.
—
On DraftKings, Hafez is another interesting pivot play in that top tier, priced at 9.2k.
It’s one of the rare circumstances where the public is super high on a fighter coming off a non-win in their UFC debut, which can always be scary. There have been many times where we’ve been fooled by fighters “looking great in losses” and I’m a bit hesitant to buy in fully.
At the same time, I loved a lot of what I saw. The wrestling looks great. The ability to transition and scramble looks great. Fighting through tiredness is a great sign. His boxing looked good in parts.
I do want to see Hafez put it all together and win, but I’m hopeful.
Now fighting Gall, I have some interest just based on Hafez’ wrestling style. It seems likely he’ll shoot takedowns, and therefore he’s a viable option on DK. He’s also -105 to win ITD which is pretty good.
Gall is a base grappler which is scary and may limit Hafez’ ceiling, but we’ve also seen Gall death gas and get pounded out by Diego Sanchez on the mat. Gall has never beaten a UFC-level talent either.
Realistically, you’re going to prioritize Makhachev in this range. You’ll be fine paying down to Strickland. Almeida has obvious grappling upside. And then we’ll see ownership spread out between the rest.
Hafez is among my favorite options after that top group. I don’t necessarily consider him safe, but he fights with an aggressive style that in theory should lead to big scores in wins. It’s a soft enough matchup to where he’s north of -400, and if we blindly close our eyes and assume he wins, my expectation is that a good DK scores comes with it.
The lower owned Hafez is publicly, the better tournament target I consider him to be. He’s ultimately not in the very top tier for me, but I’d consider him probably the best pivot of the group, and someone I’d like mild to moderate exposure to at this price tag.
Gall at 7k has some viability, and I think the best case for him is just sampling. Hafez is largely favored this heavily based on how he looked in a draw against a better opponent.
Gall hasn’t fought in two years and could be improved. There’s just a chance these odds aren’t right.
I do think Hafez is a much better wrestler, but it’s possible Gall is the better and more comfortable striker over three rounds. Perhaps Hafez gets tired again and that opens up a window for Gall. Or perhaps Gall can transition to something on the ground, being a black belt himself.
Gall is still a big dog and he’s only +560 to win ITD, but I like him a little bit. I think the majority of ownership will go to fighters priced right above him, who the public know, but who also likely have bad matchups.
With a cheaper price tag, less ownerships, and some more unknowns in the matchup, I honestly don’t hate the idea of getting on Gall a little bit. The matchup itself is -145 to end ITD and Gall has topped 100 points in the majority of his wins.
It’s still just a low-end/punt type play, but I wouldn’t consider Gall considerably worse than the options right above him and there are arguably more questions with his opponent than some of the other favorites.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hafez by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Ailin Perez vs. Joselyne Edwards
Fight Odds: Perez -194, Edwards +165
Odds to Finish: +200
DraftKings Salaries: Perez 8.7k, Edwards 7.5k
Weight Class: 135
We have an intriguing bantamweight matchup between Ailin Perez and Joselyne Edwards, who’ve both had their ups and downs within their UFC careers.
Perez had a tough debut against Stephanie Egger, who was able to take her down, take her back and lock up a RNC in the second round. Since then, Perez has rattled off a couple of victories, grinding both Ashlee Evans-Smith and Lucie Pudilova on the mat.
Her aggressive wrestling style has translated into 13 takedowns over three fights, at a 50 percent accuracy, with an impressive 10/15 performance against AES in 2023.
I wouldn’t consider Perez to be an amazing technical wrestler, nor an elite submission grappler with a purple belt in jiu-jitsu, but it’s her willingness to grapple and her consistency in that realm which can lead to success in this division.
Once on top, Perez can still transition into advantageous positions, and I love her willingness to throw ground-and-pound as well. She put up 127 total strikes against AES and another 123 against Pudilova.
However, it’s important to note that unless Perez is in top position, she is likely not going to be winning.
We haven’t seen tons of extended striking exchanges, but I view Perez as limited in that area currently. She does have some pop, and I’ve seen her connect well in exchanges before, but again I would not consider her super technical.
In a fight that played out purely at distance, I would expect Perez to have some competitive moments with a kicking game and willingness to throw, but I’d be very skeptical that she’d land enough volume to win rounds, and her defense might be a liability.
Currently, only 17 percent of Perez’ UFC fights have taken place at distance though, which is an indicator of how aggressive she has been in creating grappling exchanges.
The other question mark for me is her defensive wrestling, which is always a red flag with fighters who pursue grappling games. Typically, if I’m counting on a fighter to wrestle with success, I’d ideally like them to be able to defend takedowns as well. Weak defensive grappling is usually a signal that the fighter lacks a strong level of offensive technicality as well.
In Perez’ case, she’s only given up two official takedowns, both coming against Egger in her debut, which ultimately did lead to a submission loss.
I wouldn’t say she’s horrendous in that area, but I do think she’s likely to get taken down again in the future. Her physicality is mediocre and I just don’t believe her technical wrestling is elite.
To her credit, I think she scrambles OK. She won’t just lay on her back and give up rounds. Trying to get back to your feet is half the battle.
It’s just something to keep in mind that if Perez is not wrestling and controlling her opponent, she probably is not winning comfortably. She could very well be on the wrong end of distance exchanges, and she’s likely to get outwrestled by the better tier of talent in this division.
Her next challenge will be Joselyne Edwards, who just lost a weird fight to Nora Cornolle, despite landing five takedowns of her own.
One of the weird aspects to the matchup is that Cornolle has since defended well against Melissa Mullins in a huge upset, and usually, it’s Edwards who is the one giving up takedowns.
Edwards typically thrives as a distance striker, and 50 percent of her fights take place at distance.
She lands 4.71 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.36 per minute with a 50 percent defensive rate. She’s topped out at 164 and 101 sig. strikes landed in UFC, which is a nice indicator of volume.
Edwards isn’t the biggest power threat, and has yet to score a knockdown in the UFC, but she’s a very capable striker and is likely to compete with most in this division on volume alone.
Her biggest issue has been her defensive grappling, and she currently defends at 64 percent. She gave up four takedowns to Karol Rosa, five to Jessica-Rose Clark and a couple more to Lucie Pudilova. Even Wu Yanan and Romona Pascual have gotten in on the action.
The only two fighters to not take Edwards down were Cornolle and Kim, and neither one of those fighters actually attempted a takedown.
Edwards isn’t horrible defensively, but she is not good either. She allows clinch exchanges too easily and she doesn’t understand underhook concepts very well. She’s been pulled and tripped, and it feels likely she will continue to struggle against wrestlers.
Even further, when she does get taken down, her get-up game is not great. She’s been held in full guard for minutes at a time or until the ref makes the fighters stand back up. She’s given up dominant positions like the mount.
Her ground game on the bottom does not feel strong and it’s a clear recipe to continue to lose rounds.
Offensively, Edwards is alright. She now averages 1.0 takedowns per 15 and she can actually throw ground-and-pound from the top. She’s actually a purple belt in jiu-jitsu as well, so it’s not like she’s never trained on the mat.
Edwards just hasn’t wrestled much offensively, until her last fight, where she attempted eight takedowns. I still wouldn’t label her dominant in that area but if she’s more willing to wrestle offensively in the future, it would only add to her solid round winning ability.
As far as this matchup goes, I think favoring Perez makes sense based on the advantages she projects to have in top position.
Assuming Perez attempts takedowns at a moderate rate, I think she’ll find her way on top of Edwards. I’ve seen her land trips that Edwards has failed to defend in the past. I’ll never fully trust Perez because she’s not an elite technical wrestler, but willingness alone is likely enough in this particular matchup.
And on top, Perez could dominate. Edwards may not be able to get back up. Perez may land a lot of ground-and-pound, and advance position. A TKO stoppage is even in play based on Edwards inability to get back up.
More likely, Edwards survives though, and Perez hasn’t proven to be a great finisher. It all comes down to willingness and consistency though because if Perez just goes after takedowns like she did against AES, she can probably continue to dump Edwards on the mat.
It feels like the total volume of ground control and strikes landed will favor Perez in this situation, and her taking clear rounds is a real possibility.
As I said from the top though, if Perez is not clearly winning with top control, I’d guess she’s outright losing.
At distance, I’d favor Edwards somewhat comfortably. It would probably still be competitive, but Edwards is more damaging and has more proven volume. Perez hasn’t landed more than 12 distance strikes in a fight yet.
And there’s also a possibility Edwards wrestles. If she does, she could maybe take Perez down. I would likely favor Perez to get back up to her feet in that situation, but even Pudilova got control on Perez in round three and won that round.
Maybe Perez slows down after a strong round one, and Edwards can make the final two rounds competitive with distance striking and 1-2 takedowns.
I will ultimately lean toward Perez because I like the wrestling process, and Edwards has had very clear struggles in that department, but I also want to acknowledge that Edwards still has paths to victory, as Perez feels somewhat one-dimensional at the moment.
—
On DraftKings, this is honestly among my favorite fights to target, of the group of matchups that aren’t extremely obvious.
I say that because the matchup feels somewhat binary, and both lack defense. If Perez wins, I find it very likely to come from a lot of grappling.
She scored 138 in her first UFC win, and 88 in her most recent decision. The latter only came with two takedowns too, and I think there’s more upside here.
There are a lot of heavy favorites on this card, which usually translates into many big scores, so I suppose that’s the counter argument. A mediocre decision probably won’t cut it for Perez, and I would want more than 88 points.
But Edwards just isn’t good at defending takedowns, and Perez should have among the most wrestling upside on the slate, in theory. I’m not expecting a finish at +325 ITD, but I’m not sure she needs one.
Look, the obvious plays are obvious. This one has some risk. But Perez is a grappling oriented fighter and she may not be chalky due to the strength of this range and above, and that definitely intrigues me.
I’m always willing to target grapplers and on a small slate where not many will be overlooked, I’m hopeful for Perez. I’ll probably end up overweight on her and will just bite the bullet if she fails.
The other side of the coin is that if she fails, my hope is she fails miserably. Edwards may have a considerable advantage at distance, and he’s priced down to 7.5k.
There’s definitely a concern about ceiling in a striking based decision, but I also noted Perez doesn’t defend takedowns well either. Edwards may have sneaky wrestling upside in a win.
There’s no expectation of a finish on her side at +500, but Perez isn’t defensively sound and I think that would translate into a fair amount of offensive production. At 7.5k, Edwards at least has win equity and a path to reach it.
I will be prioritizing Perez, but I also like Edwards somewhat on a slate where most dogs have bad matchups. She’s another secondary target who shouldn’t be too popular and I’m really hopeful this matchup as a whole gets a bit overlooked due to the heavy GTD odds.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Perez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Andre Lima vs. Mitch Raposo
Fight Odds: Lima -262, Raposo +216
Odds to Finish: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Lima 8.6k, Raposo 7.6k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Andre Lima is a Contender Series alum who made good on his UFC debut via disqualification due to his opponent biting him…not a joke – he’s 8-0 as a pro. Mitch Raposo was a member of the TUF 29 season and got a crack on the Contender Series later that year, but was unsuccessful in both his opportunities. He’s since gone back to the regional scene, rattling off four straight wins and is now getting a short-notice call up to the UFC – he’s 9-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Lima comes from a kickboxing background where he was a champion in his native Brazil.
Our tape on him isn’t vast but in what we have, he works in a more traditional, marauding striking style where he likes to control the center and dictate exchanges.
However, he hasn’t been an output machine necessarily, but his shots take an impact as he’ll dig the legs and body with kicks, in addition to some stronger blitzing straights. As a result, five of his eight pro wins have come via KO, although not all have come at distance.
Defensively, I think he’s decent when he’s the guy going forward while being able to keep a higher shelling guard, but he did struggle a bit more when put on the back foot in his UFC debut by Severino – the distance strikes were close at 31-29 in favor of Severino, but I’d also say that Lima was landing more impactful shots.
He ate some good shots as well, so he does appear to be a pretty durable fighter but once again, we’re dealing in a smaller sample size.
Overall, Lima appears to be a decent striker and has power for 125 lbs which is a good attribute to have, but I still like to see him in more distance exchanges and when pressured effectively.
Raposo is a smaller guy at 125, standing 5’5” with a 64” reach.
He’s a floor player by base but has shown some decent things in the stand up. He’s got some quick hands, uses a healthy amount of movement and is coming off three straight KO wins.
However, I think a bulk of that is due to the level of competition he’s been facing recently where none of those guys provided any real resistance to him, and he was just able to have target practice essentially.
Also, looking at his earlier career, he hadn’t shown any real power components.
He did compete to a degree on the feet in his losses to Sholinian and Hadley but the main issue I have with him is that he can just accept general pressure when actual resistance is being applied to him.
In a division like 125 which tends to be pretty fast paced, playing the outside tends to not be the best strategy for most guys, unless you’re incredibly efficient defensively because it can just lead to tighter margins on optics.
Overall, Raposo is still only 25 years old and I don’t hate his stand up, but he’s going to have to show he can beat someone of merit standing before I give any overt credence to improvement/evolution.
How it plays out: I don’t think Lima is a great matchup for Raposo on the feet. He’s going to be the bigger guy with a more diverse arsenal and hits harder than Raposo. Additionally, he’s going to be the one going forward here and it’s the pressure I feel he’ll be able to apply that will give Raposo the biggest number of issues. I’m still not uber bullish on a KO as I lean more to a decision, but I feel Lima could break him down and finish more with attrition, factoring in body work/the potential cardio dynamic.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Despite the kickboxing base of Lima, he’s a recently crowned BJJ black belt.
We’ve seen the floor come into play pro and con in Lima’s last three fights. He’s not a guy to dive on legs for 15 minutes but he has mixed it in, and has mainly excelled from the body lock to hit trips, throws or sweeps.
He’s also shown the ability to pass and take the back although he still reps no pro wins via submission. Lima has jumped a few guillotines as well which I’m not the biggest fan of.
His control has been decent but he’s lost position while attacking things before.
Defensively, it’s a little shaky for him as I’ve seen him show some good down blocking/sprawls at times, but he’s also coming off conceding five TDs in the last outing to Severino – he only conceded three minutes of control though, so he was able to work up on stuff, but he arguably lost the 1st and was appearing to be on his way to losing the 2nd.
He’s spent some time in bottom in another regional fight as well but was able to work back up.
Overall, Lima’s a guy who will probably realize more floor success against less competent opponents, but I think he may struggle here against more capable wrestlers of a UFC level – time will tell.
Raposo comes from a wrestling background and is a recently crowned BJJ black belt.
The floor is where his primary work was done earlier on in his career but in the more recent past, he hasn’t realized a ton of success. He’s got some good entries to TDs to where he’s mixed it into a handful of fights, but he tends to struggle with ground control.
In his most recent stretch, he’s just let guys up after taking them down immediately which is kind of interesting.
He landed two TDs on Hadley but only got 1.5 minutes of control and Hadley isn’t a very good wrestler.
Raposo ultimately got taken down in the 2nd, gave his back up and got submitted.
Wrestling against him was also a factor in his loss to Sholinian back on TUF, although he stuffed a healthy number of shots there.
Despite being a black belt, he still only has three pro wins via submission – once again, coming against a meaningless level of competition so I’m not entirely sure how Raposo’s submission grappling skills stack up to the UFC level – the Hadley fight would indicate potentially not great.
Overall, Raposo is capable of landing TDs and out grappling inferior ground guys, but I feel he’ll struggle to realize extended success at the UFC level and in facing more physically imposing parties.
How it plays out: Given the last fight Lima, I do think Raposo is capable of taking Lima down in this spot. I just don’t think he’s going to be able to establish meaningful amounts of control though or find a submission coupled with him taking this on super short notice against a physically strong guy – he probably gasses out in a grappling intensive fight. Conversely, I think Lima could win on the floor here as well – in all likelihood down the stretch though but I feel he’s a more capable back taker than Raposo to where he could have some sneaky sub upside despite not having any pro wins via the method.
On what’s a respectable PPV card with a lot of name value, this probably won’t be at the top of many people’s list in terms of intrigue. From a high level, it’s not one that brings much for me either but there are some interesting dynamics within the fight between two younger guys still getting their feet wet. I ultimately come down on the Lima side as I think he’s the better striker with more finish equity and the guy that’s on a full fight camp.
—
On DraftKings, what primarily makes this matchup intriguing is that Lima was priced in late at 8.6k, and is now a clear value at that price.
For comparison, the three fighters priced above Lima are -192, -274 and -272, while the three fighters priced below him are -174, -150 and +104. Lima at -262 presents a savings opportunity from the tier above, and he seems like a stand out from the tier below.
Also, many people will remember him due to the biting incident in his UFC debut, and he should draw a fair amount of attention overall.
I am completely on the same page as Luke with the breakdown, which also makes this a bit tough.
I think the most merit Lima has is with a building finish in the mid-rounds. At a base level, he doesn’t have a ton of wrestling equity, nor is he a high-volume striker.
The commentators were out of breath talking about how amazing the pacing was from Lima and Severino in that debut matchup, yet Lima only landed 30 strikes in eight minutes. Raposo won’t force exchanges either.
So we’re either dependent on an early KO, or the expectation should be that Lima busts. However, with the short-notice aspect, and the idea that Lima truly is a better technical striker and grappler, perhaps Raposo will get tired and Lima can pour on the offense.
A win like that in round two may also be enough to clear 100 points and contend with the optimal lineup. So at 8.6k, I think Lima is fine.
I do prefer him in a cash game type format though, where his moneyline presents safety. With an ITD line of +125 and minimal wrestling equity, I am far more nervous in tournaments.
If I am getting the feeling Lima will be very popular based on the value, I think coming in significantly underweight is the right call. There’s far more risk in the matchups below him but many of those have high upside as well. Similarly with some fighters priced above.
He’s still fine as a salary saver and there’s some paths to a big score for Lima, but ultimately the fight projects to extend and it’s not necessarily a matchup I want to be aggressive on, especially if the field seems excited.
Raposo at 7.6k will probably be ignored for the most part, and he could end up as a decent leverage option.
The real merit to Raposo is that he can wrestle, and Lima looks shaky as a defensive wrestler. I’m pretty confident Raposo can take Lima down.
But I’m also somewhat confident he won’t do anything with it, and it’s possible Lima threatens him and gets on top of him later. I’ve also seen him choose not to wrestle urgently in many spots so there’s no real guarantee he chases takedowns anyway. Otherwise, Raposo needs to land a single bit strike that hurts Lima and I’m not betting on that personally.
The low ownership and potential leverage, plus the wrestling equity is enough to put Raposo in play in large fields on a smaller slate. But it’s hard to label him a priority and I’d consider him a low-end secondary option at best.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Lima by Decision (Confidence=Medium)