UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues (2/15/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Fight Odds: Rodrigues -226, Cannonier +190
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Rodrigues 8.6k, Cannonier 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
It looks like Jared Cannonier has turned into the gatekeeper of this middleweight division, as he’ll face another “prospect” test in Gregory Rodrigues on Saturday.
We last saw Cannonier take on Caio Borralho, who I would label as more of a prospect than Rodrigues, and prior to that, he faced Nassourdine Imavov. As a former championship contender, it’s a role that makes sense for Cannonier, and I do think he will give Rodrigues a good test.
Cannonier actually debuted at HW in 2015, and eventually got himself in enough shape to drop to LHW. After taking a beating there as well, he fully committed to the sport, and dropped once again to MW where he has since gone 7-4, losing to Adesanya, Whittaker Imavov and Borralho.
Cannonier is in freak physical shape now, and he likes to use that to his advantage. He can march you down and throw power strikes, and he’s earned six of his 10 UFC victories by TKO.
In that span, he’s also developed significantly as a defensive grappler, where he was quite weak in his early days. He still only defends takedowns at 62 percent, but he’s very difficult to keep down, and most of his worst performances came at HW and LHW.
He even turned into a wrestler himself against Marvin Vettori, who was projected to have the wrestling advantage when the two fought. Cannonier landed four of six takedowns against Vettori, and topped that off with a massive 241 significant strikes landed over 25 minutes.
The volume had always been one of my concerns, as Cannonier was usually slower paced and couldn’t separate himself in rounds with ease. He still lands 4.49 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.39 per minute with a 56 percent striking defense, but we’ve clearly seen his volume upside grow in recent five-round performances against Vettori and Strickland.
As it stands currently, Cannonier is a tough out. We now know he can fight for a hard 25 minutes. He’s a dangerous kickboxer with power, who can work at a high rate. And he’s developed on the ground.
With that said, he’s still probably a Tier 2 fighter in this division, and not one of the elites. He’s still going to generally be the one defending takedowns, rather than pursuing them. And he still gets hit often, where he’s been knocked down six times in his UFC career.
That doesn’t include his most recent TKO loss which came in round four against Imavov, nor does it include when he was badly hurt in the first few minutes by Vettori in the fight prior. It does include his most recent knockdown against Borralho though Cannonier survived that fifth round to see the final bell.
It’s certainly one of my worries for Cannonier as he faces Rodrigues, who is a pretty well-rounded fighter with both powerful boxing and strong wrestling.
Rodrigues comes from an ADCC background and has a world championship in BJJ. His wrestling is also very good, and he’s proven to be a pretty high-level striker too. There are a lot of very promising aspects of Rodrigues’ game.
It’s translated into success in the UFC too, as Rodrigues has earned seven victories and five knockouts.
The big problems I’ve seen with Rodrigues, are that despite his grappling skill set, he is very willing to strike. And he’s not that durable. He was KOd on the Contender Series by a weak opponent, and he took a ton of damage in his early UFC run.
He’s survived most of it.. but barely. He almost got KOd by Jun-Yong Park, and he was badly hurt by Njokuani before mounting a comeback there too. Brunno Ferreira did knock him out in 2023. I’m also not sold on his cardio, though it’s fine for how much of a pace he pushes.
I think that Rodrigues will continue to win a lot of fights, and destroy a lot of competition. I also think we’ll see him get hurt and get knocked out at times.
Rodrigues is also not really a prospect in the sense that he’s 32 years old. The time is now for Rodrigues so it makes sense to see him given a step up in competition, and his first main event.
He looked pretty solid in his most recent in over Christian Leroy Duncan, landing four takedowns en route to a clear decision. Prior to that, he knocked out Brad Tavares and Denis Tiuliulin.
I’m relatively high on Rodrigues’ skill set, but his problems are still problems.
As it relates to this matchup, first of all, I’m not really sure Rodrigues will have extended wrestling success. That’s been one of the areas where Cannonier has improved most, and he’s been very difficult to hold down.
I do think Rodrigues can land initial shots, but I’m not sold he can hold Cannonier down for extended periods. If he can, Rodrigues will have finishing upside.
On the feet, Rodrigues is a dangerous striker, but he gets in wars. He’s landing 5.52 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.69 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate. The durability concerns are mentioned above.
I do think Rodrigues has knockout upside, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see it come to fruition. Cannonier has been getting hurt more and more and Rodrigues is potentially the more powerful of the two.
But I do think Cannonier will throw back, and I think he has pretty significant damage equity as well. If this fight somehow went five rounds, I’m not sure who would find the edge. I may lean toward Cannonier in that outcome who has gone five rounds on five different occasions.
Cannonier likely won’t dominate the volume but I wouldn’t expect Rodrigues to either. Rodrigues has never landed more than 71 sig. strikes in a fight. Also, despite Cannonier being on the wrong end against Borralho, getting outlanded 153 to 83, Borralho’s style is much more built to limit strikes and pick opponents apart at defense. Rodrigues is more power based and his defensive metrics, or lack thereof, showcase that.
I think it’s totally fair to side with Rodrigues as the higher upside fighter of the two. The clearly superior wrestler with grappling upside, and potentially the more powerful striker.
However, if you believe Cannonier has any chance to negate some of the wrestling attack, which I do, and this becomes a pure kickboxing match, then I see it as highly competitive with both sides being capable of hurting the other.
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On DraftKings, Rodrigues will be the preferred target and he should be considerably more popular than Cannonier, similar to what we saw last week.
Rodrigues is coming off three wins in a row at 8.6k, where he scored 90, 91 and 99, while Cannonier has lost three (or four) of his last five fights.
Rodrigues also very clearly has the wrestling upside in this fight, and his ITD line is far superior at -130 compared to Cannonier’s +260.
With five rounds to work with, Rodrigues seems likely to exceed value with any kind of early or mid-round finish. In a decision, my guess is wrestling would come into play and he could still easily reach or surpass 100 points as well. So overall, Rodrigues will rate out extremely well for the price and he should be very chalky this week.
Similar to last week, what I noted with DDP is that if he decides to not wrestle, and the fight extends, his upside will be severely capped. Rodrigues landing 120 sig. strikes and 4-5 takedowns looks a lot better than 120 sig. strikes and 0-1 takedowns. There’s no guarantee of wrestling success here, despite the projection.
And again, without wrestling success, it’s very possible this fight looks much more competitive than the betting line suggests, if it extends.
I wouldn’t label Rodrigues as a safe play for that reason, but he’s clearly a very strong target in all formats. I’m unsure if I’ll be able to get above the field percentage but it makes sense to target Rodrigues moderately-heavily on this slate given the 8.6k price tag, main event status and wrestling/ITD equity.
Cannonier will have a much worse floor at 7.6k, but he should act as a nice leverage target where he still has KO upside.
His ITD line isn’t even that bad at +260 and I think does show finishing upside. Plus, we’ve just already seen it with Rodrigues. Don’t be fooled. He’s been knocked out multiple times by weaker competition and he’s been rocked several other times.
My best guess is that Rodrigues finds a way to hurt Cannonier or does get his wrestling going early, so we just may never see the upside of Cannonier realized. But in an extended back-and-forth fight, I’d want exposure to Cannonier.
He will act as a solid secondary play at worst, with finishing equity and some upside over five rounds, along with the leverage against Rodrigues directly. I don’t need to take a major stand against the field here either but I’d certainly include him in my portfolio with any reasonable amount of lineups.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodrigues by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal
Fight Odds: Zalal -503, Kattar +375
Odds to end ITD: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Zalal 9.4k, Kattar 6.8k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Having been on a tear as of late, Youssef Zalal will now get a co-main event against UFC veteran Calvin Kattar.
Ever since returning to the UFC, Zalal has been dominating. He has submitted Billy Quarantillo, Jarno Errens, and Jack Shore. He has looked good, and he was generally not a guy known as a finisher.
Zalal is actually a skilled fighter who is well-rounded in all areas. He is a decent technical striker. He lands 2.84 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.71 in return and defends strikes at a fantastic 66 percent. He has some decent boxing and calf kicks. I actually quite like his calf kicks.
He is also extremely durable, and I have never even really seen him hurt before. He even survived Ilia Topuria quite comfortably which is a fight that has obviously aged well. His volume does concern me, but I categorize him as a neutralizer as he minimizes the defense of his opponents and generally lands more than them.
Zalal can also grapple a bit. He lands 2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes and is a capable submission grappler. He submitted Jack Shore in his last matchup quite easily, though it came after a knockdown. He also submitted Jarno Errens and Quarantillo on the mat which was impressive. That was a really good performance by Zalal. He also grappled competitively with Ilia Topuria down the stretch in their fight as well.
I also consider Zalal a decent defensive grappler as well. He defends takedowns at 60 percent and can be taken down here and there, but he is still competent and can reverse position and scramble. Zalal also just has good cardio and can fight 15 minutes with no issue.
The issue with Zalal is that his offense is not always there. 2.87 significant strikes is not a lot of output and he is basically a neutralizer who just tries to land a little more than his opponent.
I still do think Zalal is a decent fighter though capable of exposing fighters with holes as he is very tough, has good cardio, and can fight in all areas.
Zalal will be taking on Calvin Kattar. Kattar comes from a boxing background and that is his bread and butter. Kattar has an excellent jab and is great with his straight punching. He is also just tough as nails and took a historic beating against Max Holloway a few fights back.
Kattar lands 4.76 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.75 in return. He defends strikes at 54 percent. Kattar is a high-volume boxer and also has power and is capable of producing knockouts.
I do worry about Kattar’s defense though. I think he is susceptible to kicks as he is really just a guy who thrives in boxing range. I am always skeptical of someone who absorbs more strikes than they land as well. Kattar absorbs 6.75 significant strikes per minute which is simply a lot.
Kattar doesn’t really wrestle offensively but his TDD has generally held up in the UFC. He defends takedowns at 72 percent. He does seem to have strong first layer TDD. However, Aljamain Sterling just dominated Kattar and landed eight takedowns, and rode Kattar out.
I still don’t think Zalal can replicate that Sterling performance. Sterling is a higher volume wrestler than Zalal and has wrestling rides that Zalal does not have. I am just not as confident that Zalal can hold Kattar down for this entire fight as Kattar’s get ups are honestly decent.
I still do think Zalal can probably have some grappling success here. Maybe it can lead to a back take and a submission or a bit of control. So it is still to favor Zalal for potential grappling upside.
On the feet, I think this fight is a lot closer. I think Kattar is historically a better high volume boxer. However, I like Zalal more defensively and at kicking range. I honestly probably favor Zalal on the feet at this point in their careers as Kattar is older now and has just taken so much damage in his career.
My guess is Zalal competes in the striking and probably gets the better of the exchanges with his kicking and defense, and probably mixes in enough grappling to win this fight. Kattar is ultra tough though so I will pick this to go to the cards.
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On DraftKings, I have to decide whether I want to continually be burned by Zalal.
I’ve definitely been lower on him than the public since his return to the UFC but ultimately, he’s proven me wrong. Fair play to him. He’s shown an improved skill set and finishing ability.
I still get pretty worried about his overall output, and even in his recent wins, he’s still not landing many takedowns. It’s led to some strong DK scores of 99, 101 and 96, but they aren’t smashes.
Now he’s fighting Kattar, a former title contender who just lost to a former champion. That result is enough to make Zalal -500 to win, apparently. It’s just tough for me to process that this line might have been flipped a couple of years ago.
I still think Zalal clearly has the better style to win fights today. I love grapplers and Zalal is a competent one, who is pretty defensively sound. Kattar obviously struggles to a degree on the mat.
But again, Sterling is a former champion who is a really strong back taker and BJJ player and he had to land eight takedowns to win. He couldn’t submit Kattar. Does that make me think Zalal can’t submit Kattar? Not necessarily but I’m also not extremely confident he will..
And Zalal hasn’t landed more than three takedowns in a fight since his UFC debut in 2020. Am I so confident he’ll easily land 6-8 takedowns here like Sterling? Not really.
Zalal is priced up to 9.4k and my fear here is in that ceiling. If the fight prolongs, Zalal just hasn’t shown an elite ceiling. 100 DK points would be great but I don’t know if it’s optimal at 9.4k.
I think the obvious answer here is that I may not be able to pay up to Zalal at a high rate, and if so, that’s fine. There are other strong targets in the 9k range who I’m happy to play over Zalal straight up, or as mix ins.
I definitely think Zalal is in contention with this range though. I’d clearly play him over Cavalcanti, and he could reasonably beat the other fighters if they fail to finish. I just wish he had better finishing metrics at +215 ITD.
Ultimately, I like Zalal to win and I like his wrestling upside in this matchup, where he may be forced to produce more offense to win. He’s a strong play, but not necessarily a fighter I’m confident will reach his ceiling and probably not someone I’d prioritize outright in a strong 9k range.
Kattar at 6.8k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
I do like his talents, obviously, but Zalal doesn’t really yield a lot of offense. This won’t be a brawl. Zalal will kick at Kattar, run away, and then take him down and try to take his back.
Kattar won’t really be able to land many strikes in a loss, and he just landed 8 against Sterling. Yes, 8.
If he’s landing big shots, he can win, but that probably ties more into damage upside. Maybe he can knock Zalal down or knock him out. He’s only +600 to win ITD though and I just don’t see him having lots of opportunities.
I wouldn’t expect Kattar to be highly owned, and he’ll act as leverage against Zalal. He has a path to win with boxing. It’s just not an ideal matchup to score and I’d rather invest in other dogs with cleaner paths and more win equity.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Zalal by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dylan Budka
Fight Odds: Shahbazyan -391, Budka +305
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Shahbazyan 9.2k, Budka 7k
Weight Class: 185
The former protege of Ronda Rousey, Edmen Shahbazyan will be thrown into the fray once more as he’ll take on wrestler Dylan Budka this weekend.
Shahbazyan has now competed 11 times in the UFC and if there’s anything we’ve learned about the kid, it’s that he really hasn’t learned anything.
Shahbazyan always profiled as an ultra-quick finisher coming into the promotion, with aggressive hands, power, and a strong enough wrestling/grappling game. The concern that always came with that style was his ability to retain energy throughout multiple rounds, and unfortunately, Shahbazyan can’t do it.
The issue though is that we’ve known it for years, and Shahbazyan really hasn’t seemed capable of adjusting his game. Though he has many quick finishes in the UFC, including five first-round wins, he’s also been beaten up and finished nearly every time the fight has extended.
Look no further than his last fight against Gerald Meerschaert, who isn’t an easy opponent, but Shahbazyan had him dead to rights in the second round and was beating Meerschaert up on the ground pretty badly. Meerschaert survived, and then by round three, Shahbazyan had nothing left in the tank. Meerschaert took him down easily and submitted him in the final minute.
Among other instances, Brunson beat him up badly with a 3rd round TKO stoppage. Jack Hermansson beat him up badly to a decision. Imavov TKOd him in the second round. Anthony Hernandez drowned him and TKOd him in the 3rd, and then Meerschaert subbed him late too.
While I do think Shahbazyan has skills, and could theoretically adjust any time and improve his cardio, it’s very clearly a weak point in his game and will be the primary reason why he never climbs the rankings in this division. I trust him to fight semi-aggressively early, and he’ll pose a threat to his opponents, but without an early finish, Shahbazyan is very liable to slow down, exhaust himself, and get finished.
Fortunately, Dylan Budka is among the easier opponents on paper for Shahbazyan, who isn’t particularly known for cardio himself.
I thought Budka looked decent coming into the UFC with a wrestling base, but he gassed out after a round against Cesar Almeida in his debut and was TKOd. Most recently, he lost a clear decision to Andre Petroski who is also known for gassing.
Budka holds a career record of 7-4, with one win by knockout and two by submission. He’s young in the game at age 25, and he won by decision on the Contender Series in 2023 to earn his contract.
Budka has a background in football and other team sports, and despite getting a late start in wrestling, he was awarded a scholarship to Notre Dame college in Ohio. He seems like a very athletic guy and that athleticism and wrestling will be his biggest strength.
Budka is capable of shooting big double legs, and slamming his opponents on the canvas. Or he can back them up into the fence and grab double legs from there.
My issue is that otherwise, Budka’s game is very limited. I’m unsure of his exact credentials in BJJ, but I don’t consider him very good. He’s only been a pro fighter since 2022, and he was submitted in one of his early bouts.
I’ve seen him taken down in a handful of fights on the regional scene, and he can get stuck on the bottom at times, or even give up his back. It’s a separate but related issue, and one that leads me to not fully trust Budka as a grappler.
In the fight against Petroski, Budka looked even worse. He was taken down once per round, on five total attempts, and basically held down for several minutes in each round.
It shows in his record too. A dominant wrestler with an athletic base should have more than three finishes out of seven victories. He hasn’t been able to dominate poor regional competition, and it feels very unlikely he can dominate UFC level competition.
But his pure offensive wrestling is fine. He can land takedowns. I just do not trust his ability to attack relentlessly from there, or find a submission. I also think he’s in danger of getting taken down himself, and getting submitted.
On the feet, Budka is mediocre at best. He can throw with power, but he uses a lot of energy and I wouldn’t be very trusting of his volume or defense over a long period of time.
Realistically, Budka’s best chance to win is to grind out his opponents. I wish there was more threat with his grappling style because in this current state of MMA, he doesn’t do enough damage for me to be comfortable.
So, despite the cardio issues for Shahbazyan, I’m going to pick him to win this fight, and probably get an early TKO stoppage.
Budka did not look strong defending takedowns from Petroski, and he looked incapable from his back. He did survive the full three rounds though, but Petroski really wasn’t urgent in attacking.
I think Shahbazyan can land some takedowns here while he is fresh, and on top, he tends to throw a lot of ground-and-pound. I think he’s a more dangerous finisher than Budka, and should have a realistic shot for that early stoppage.
Even though I’m still fearful of Shahbazyan getting tired, Budka doesn’t really present a major offensive threat, nor a cardio threat. So I think Shahbazyan may have some more wiggle room in this matchup to where he can survive comfortably into round two for example. I’d still be nervous by round three.
I do want to note that Budka has a five-round split decision loss to Azamat Bekoev on his record, who recently debuted impressively. I watched that fight and Budka looked OK. Perhaps his cardio is better than he’s shown thus far, and it’s still reasonable to believe it’s better than Shahbazyan’s.
While I don’t really love the offensive threat of Budka. If he’s still alive by round three, he could possibly put Shahbazyan in danger with his boxing, or land a takedown of his own. It’s still a clear win condition for him in this matchup. I just trust the skill set of Shahbazyan more at this point.
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On DraftKings, Shahbazyan is priced up to 9.2k and he’ll be firmly in play for his early finishing upside.
Shahbazyan has scored 98, 130, 101, 116, 95 and 118 in his wins in the UFC. He is -150 to win ITD here which again shows real finishing equity.
There’s still a boom or bust element to Shahbazyan, and I wouldn’t say he’s a comfortable click. But Budka can be hurt, and can be taken down. It gives Shahbazyan multiple avenues to secure the finish, and his upside is worth considering at this price tag.
This isn’t the strongest top range I’ve ever seen either, though the addition of Gordon helps, and we get a bit of a discount on Shahbazyan off the top. Never feel safe with him, but I’d say he’s among the better tournament targets on the slate given his historic upside and the matchup at hand.
Budka at 7k will mostly act as a leverage target.
He’s looked awful in his two UFC fights and has scored very little, so I doubt the public will play him much or at all. While I don’t feel great about his skills, there’s some merit to targeting Budka in the hope that he can comeback and win ITD late, as many opponents have against Shahbazyan in the past. Budka is +600 to win ITD here which is OK.
At a super low ownership, with some wrestling upside and leverage, Budka isn’t a terrible tournament target. But I wouldn’t be excited to play him outside of the leverage angle and even with it, I’m pretty skeptical to the point that he’ll just be a low exposure play for him in total.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Shahbazyan by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)
Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov
Fight Odds: Bonfim -213, Sadykhov +180
Odds to end ITD: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Bonfim 8.4k, Sadykhov 7.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a battle between two guys who successfully finished Terrance McKinney lol. That is basically how I remember both Ismael Bonfim and Nazim Sadykhov as we bet on both of them against McKinney. This fight is actually a banger, and I am excited to watch it.
Ismael is Brazilian and is 20-4 professionally. He won an impressive dominant decision on the Contender Series against a decent Russian opponent in 2022.
I like what I have seen from Bonfim. He has decent experience in LFA and comes from a boxing background. You can definitely see the boxing skills in his game. He has pretty good volume. He lands 5.80 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.16 in return, and defends strikes at 70 percent which is very strong.
Bonfim is really good defensively and doesn’t really get hit often. He also rolls with shots well. I like his counters a lot. He also will work the body and can fight with a good pace for 15 minutes. He can win fights on the feet in the UFC. His most recent win was a striking based decision against Vinc Pichel where he landed 111 significant strikes. He looked solid.
I have seen Bonfim grapple a bit and he seems like a decent submission grappler and a competent grappler overall. He looks to have solid TDD too. I have seen him controlled here and there but not too often and he overall just has good TDD. He also works hard to get back to his feet.
Bonfim was submitted in his most recent loss against Benoit Saint-Denis. However, he defended 5/7 takedowns against Saint-Denis and I actually liked a lot of what he did defensively. BSD simply caught Bonfim with a really slick back take, and I don’t give Bonfim too much crap for that performance.
Bonfim also just seems very durable. He is hard to hit and he has never been knocked out in his career. I have never even seen him hurt before.
Bonfim will be taking on Nazim Sadykhov. Sadykhov is 9-1 professionally and fights out of Ray Longo’s gym. Sadykhov booked his ticket to the UFC with a third round knockout in his Contender Series bout. He is 2-0-1 in the UFC with his first win coming by a cut TKO against Evan Elder in a fight he was actually down on the scorecards. He then finished McKinney.
Most recently, he had a draw against Viacheslav Borshchev in a fight that generally took place on the feet. In rounds one and three, Sadykhov lost both rounds pretty cleanly as Borschev was just a slicker striker. In round two, Sadykhov obtained a 10-8 round as he hurt Borschev badly and beat the crap out of him, and nearly stopped him for most of the round. The fight basically showed that Sadykhov is a dangerous striker, but he can drop rounds by getting out skilled.
I mostly consider Sadykhov a power striker who has a good straight left hand standing out of the southpaw stance. He is a little low volume on the feet at times. However, he is physical and hits hard. He can walk down opponents and hurt them which makes up for his low volume at times. He is almost always the aggressor, and he seems very tough and has good cardio. So he gives himself a full fight to hurt his opponents.
I think my biggest concern with Sadykhov is his defense. He is defending strikes at 48 percent which is not good. He was outlanded by Elder 70-64 in significant strikes. He was also outlanded by Borshchev 143-94 in significant strikes. It isn’t like Sadykhov is getting teed off on and is a big time threat to get knocked out. I am not as worried about his striking defense in the sense that he will be knocked out a lot. He actually seems very durable. He is just aggressive which allows his opponents to land point scoring shots and get ahead on the scorecards.
I am just concerned that we will keep seeing him lose the strike total battles against skilled strikers which will borderline make him knockout or bust in those types of matchups.
Sadykhov is capable of landing takedowns here and there, but I don’t consider him a great wrestler or anything. He does have decent defensive wrestling with a powerful base and can turn defensive wrestling / sprawls into top time of his own. He will also look to mix in ground-and-pound.
As far as this matchup goes, I think both of these guys are strong defensive wrestlers and not great offensive wrestlers, so I think we will see the grappling get nullified. My guess is these guys will generally strike and the winner of the striking will be the winner of the fight so that is what I am going to focus on.
I lean Bonfim here as he is simply the more defensively sound striker. Although neither guy has had a long UFC career, Bonfim is defending strikes at 70 percent while Sadykhov is defending strikes at 48 percent. When you deep tape both guys as well, it is pretty clear Bonfim is better defensively. So my guess is that these guys strike and as more exchanges occur, Bonfim will build a lead by evading more and landing his shots and get ahead on the scorecards.
Sadykhov will probably be the aggressor as he usually is. I think he will walk into a lot of counters of Bonfim as the aggressor though. Both guys have pretty good cardio and durability so I do expect this to extend and probably go the distance. If this goes to the cards, I honestly would be sort of surprised if Sadykhov wins just because I think Bonfim is the better defensive striker.
I still think Sadykhov is dangerous and tough though. He has a sneaky powerful left hand and I do think it is possible he could hurt Bonfim and have some moments in this fight. We saw that against Borshchev and striking fights are just high variance. Perhaps Bonfim will be uncomfortable having to fight going backwards for most of the fight. However, Bonfim looks to counter well and stand his ground. I also think Sadykhov is borderline KO or bust in this matchup. So I am going to go with Bonfim here as I think he is the more defensively skilled striker.
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On DraftKings, I wouldn’t say I love this fight even though it should be entertaining.
Bonfim rates out more as a round winner than a finisher, and he’s only +265 to win ITD in this matchup. Even with a great volume performance like the one we just saw, Bonfim landed 111 sig. strikes and a takedown and still only put up 81 DK points.
I think Bonfim would need more wrestling, or a TKO to really put a stamp on this fight, and I’m less confident in that outcome. I’m also not ruling it out. Sadykhov can be hit and taken down. Bonfim projects for a solid floor in a win.
He’s also going to rate out well for value purposes, as he’s been bet up this week to a -213 favorite. For reference, the next fighter priced below him is Angela Hill who is a -104 underdog. So if you need win equity in this range, Bonfim has it and he may get some extra love for that reason.
I just have more trouble seeing the ceiling outcome come at a high rate, and at 8.4k, I wouldn’t consider Bonfim a primary target. But he’s priced reasonably and there’s a lot of variance in striking exchanges. It would be fine to use him as a secondary target/value play. I’d like to pay up when possible though.
Sadykhov at 7.8k is now overpriced a bit based on the current odds.
That doesn’t mean he’s out of play, but it’s also tough to be extremely excited by him.
The positive is that Sadykhov should be low-ish owned and should act as leverage against Bonfim. And if he wins, it probably comes from a knockout or wrestling. Bonfim can give up takedowns.
I don’t think Sadykhov is likely to dominate on the mat, and he probably will be a step behind Bonfim in general. But Bonfim is kind of small and not the most physical presence, so it’s possible Sadykhov can have success by just being aggressive.
I don’t have the strongest opinions here. Sadykhov doesn’t rate out too well at 7.8k, and he only has a +280 ITD line. There’s some merit to using him for leverage. Otherwise, he’s a basic secondary target and probably not one I will roster too much on this slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bonfim by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Andre Petroski
Fight Odds: Vieira -281, Petroski +230
Odds to end ITD: -175
DraftKings Salaries: Vieira 8.8k, Petroski 7.4k
Weight Class: 185
We have a mirror match in a lot of ways between two high-intensity grapplers in Rodolfo Vieira and Andre Petroski.
The difference, of course, being that Vieira is one of the best sport submission grapplers of all-time, while Petroski is more based in wrestling and MMA.
Both have shown considerable cardio question marks as well, which is why this fight could get interesting if it extends. I do hope for some fun for however long it lasts though.
It’s been a tumultuous road for Vieira, who entered the UFC as one of the best BJJ players of all-time. He’s an insane guard passer and dominating top player, and truly one of the best in the game.
But he didn’t have a deep striking background, and he mentioned how he was somewhat afraid to fight. He didn’t like fighting. It led to some crazy fights in his early UFC career, including when he death gassed against Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and lost by submission, which is a loss that shockingly, honestly doesn’t look that bad in hindsight.
At that point, I truly didn’t know if Vieira could face any adversity and overcome this super one-dimensional game.
However, he’s actually proven me wrong. Despite losing, Vieira went toe to toe with Chris Curtis on the feet for 15 minutes, even winning one round. And more recently, he was hurt badly by Cody Brundage twice, but didn’t quit, and came back to win by submission.
I still only want to back Vieira when I believe he can dominate his opponent on the mat. But I do have a little more faith that Vieira can stay alive in striking exchanges, and retain a pace for more than a few minutes.
Petroski won five consecutive fights to open his UFC career, after falling short on The Ultimate Fighter against Bryan Battle. Three of those victories came inside the distance, where Petroski was able to display some strong wrestling and grappling skills.
However, that run of excellent results pushed Petroski into a tougher tier of competition, where he then suffered back-to-back knockout losses to Michel Pereira and Jacob Malkoun.
Both outcomes were a bit odd as well. Pereira landed one clean shot in the first minute that dropped Petroski and forced him to cover up. Malkoun swarmed for the finish in the second round after Petroski wobbled himself by diving head first into the hip of Malkoun on a takedown attempt.
Neither of these outcomes make me especially confident in Petroski facing adversity, but both can be written off to a degree as well.
I suppose the bigger issue is that as far back as you can possibly go in Petroski’s career, he’s always had issues facing adversity, primarily due to cardio reasons. He starts strong, dominates on the mat, and wins ITD. But when he fails to secure a finish, he gets tired and can be finished himself.
That played out on the regional scene. It played out on TUF. And it’s played out to a degree in the UFC.
Prior to his two losses, Petroski barely escaped against Gerald Meerschaert after winning the first two rounds. He got tired once again, and ended up on his back late with Meerschaert landing ground-and-pound. It’s always been an extreme red flag for me with Petroski, and he’s a fighter who I do not trust to fight through adversity.
Most recently, Petroski has actually won back-to-back decisions against Josh Fremd and Dylan Budka, potentially showcasing his improved cardio.
I am still very skeptical though, and extremely hesitant because Petroski faced essentially no adversity in either one of those fights. In both fights, Petroski landed three takedowns, one per round, and just laid on top of his opponent for a great length of time.
I still think he’s a quality wrestler and grappler but he clearly was not chasing the finish as aggressively as he once had. It’s a positive in that it’s allowed him to survive, but it’s a negative in that I don’t think he can sustain a control based game for too long. Fremd and Budka are extremely weak on the mat and on the bottom, and the step up in competition here is massive.
On the flip side, it’s not the easiest matchup for Vieira in that at least Petroski is experienced on the mat. It’s quite possible that Petroski could survive one takedown landed by Vieira, and it’s possible that Vieira will struggle to land takedowns given Petroski’s wrestling base.
If this becomes a pure kickboxing fight, that’s far from the kind of matchup where I’d be confident in Vieira, especially if it extends.
However, of the two, honestly, Vieira has shown me more standing. He went toe to toe with Curtis and he survived some bombs against Brundage. I’m not sure it would be exciting but I’d probably lean toward Vieira winning an extended kickboxing fight of the two.
I wouldn’t bet on big damage from either man, but both would have KO equity in that type of matchup. I’d still lean slightly toward Vieira.
I’m still expecting grappling exchanges though, and I think ultimately, Vieira will win them. Petroski has been taken down twice in the UFC and Vieira can probably get him down too. Vieira is an elite back taker so Petroski will have a very limited window to escape before he’s thrown into deep waters and forced to defend deep chokes. If Vieira gets on top of him later in the fight too, Petroski just may not have the cardio to fight through it and escape.
Conversely, Petroski can probably take Vieira down. Will he want to though? I’m not sure. It could very well lead to Vieira reversing position or threatening Petroski with a submission. I think he could hold Vieira down for a while or finish him even if Vieira is completely gassed, but it’s hard to see that outcome occurring very often while Petroski also has a lot left in the tank.
My best guess is that Vieira can find his way on top of Petroski in the first or second round, and can probably find a submission. If not, I think he has a little more juice and I’d favor him to win by decision.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Petroski landed a takedown early too, but I just don’t see him being able to do anything with it. I still doubt in his abilities over an extended period. Forcing a high-variance brawl is probably the way to go to maximize his win chances, but I still don’t favor him in that kind of matchup where the two will likely find themselves on the canvas anyway.
There’s risk here as both sides are flawed but I respect the submission threat of Vieira much.
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On DraftKings, I don’t mind Vieira at 8.8k and I think he’ll be squarely in play this week.
Largely, we will always want some exposure to Vieira because of his upside. He can land takedowns, smash on the mat and win by early submission. It’s led to scores of 114, 91, 84, 106 and 106.
I do think he has submission upside in this matchup and he’s -115 to win ITD overall, which is decent.
However, I am a bit concerned this fight extends. Petroski has been fighting at a slower pace recently and if he can fend off some early takedowns, Vieira may be content to strike as he may have an edge there too.
I do think it’s a realistic scenario that we could see all three rounds here, and the fight is -200 to go over 1.5 rounds. An extended fight would make me much more concerned for Vieira’s chances to reach a ceiling.
There’s no right or wrong answer, but I’m hesitant enough to the point that I’m not sure I’ll make Vieira a primary target on this slate, at potential chalk. In other matchups, I’d love Vieira. In this one, I just feel nervous he won’t immediately find takedown success and therefore we’ll see his scoring and early upside diminished.
I’m still willing to play Vieira mildly-moderately and I wouldn’t mind being near the field percentage, but I also don’t think I’m chasing a big overweight stance on him this week.
Petroski at 7.4k is a viable cheap target, but it’s really not the strongest matchup for him to excel.
He’s not going to submit Vieira while Vieira is fresh, so you’re really hoping for a random KO, or another death gas performance by Vieira.
Even in Petroski’s last two dominant decision wins, he only scored 77 and 82 because he was just producing so little offense. It would be good for 7.4k but not a guarantee to be optimal.
Petroski is only +400 to win ITD here which is pretty mediocre and I don’t think his chances are amazing. I think he has some mild wrestling equity and some variance based KO upside, but I don’t think he’s going to be scoring many points per minute and I don’t see a clear path to a finish either.
It’s fine to use some of Petroski as a low-end secondary target or leverage play, but I’m mostly worried about the ceiling case here. My personal exposure will be pretty limited.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vieira by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Connor Matthews vs. Jose Delgado
Fight Odds: Delgado -438, Matthews +335
Odds to end ITD: -175
DraftKings Salaries: Delgado 9k, Matthews 7.2k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jose Delgado’s a younger prospect at 145 out of the southwest, who made good on his Contender Series opportunity this past August. He’ll be making his UFC debut on Saturday – he’s 8-1 as a pro. Connor Matthews is two-time Contender Series alum who made good on his 2nd opportunity back in 2023. He’s still in search of his first UFC win after dropping his debut last March – he’s 7-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Delgado’s a bigger guy for the division with a great frame, standing 5’11” with a 73” reach.
I’m unsure of his official striking background but he fights in a pressure-kick/thai boxing based style. He flows pretty well on the feet as a switch stance fighter with sound body/head kicks, long combinations and will mix it up with inside knees and elbows. He actually reminds me a bit of one of his teammates at the MMA Lab in Mario Bautista.
His work rate has always been consistent and has proven dangerous with all limbs, with four of his eight wins coming via KO/TKO. However, he’s not a great defensive striker.
Despite some of his footwork and offline attacks, he has been susceptible to inside counters as he can get caught taking pictures at times. He’s been hurt in a few fights as well but has shown good recoverability and has never been KO’d as an amateur or pro.
Overall, I like Delgado as a striker, especially factoring in that he’s still only 26 years and at a good camp with many UFC bodies to work with in or around his weight class – he’ll need to tighten some things up defensively going forward though.
Matthews comes from a taekwondo background but fights in a more pressure based, kickboxing style.
He’ll fight out of both stances, has good stabbing front kicks/leg kicks and decent boxing. He’s clocked a handful of guys regionally, leading to subs, but I’m going to primarily touch on his DWCS fights and his debut because there’s more to take in there and against better opponents.
Matthews had a decent start against Marshall and landed 74 significant strikes over the course of the fight, but he also got walked down/broken down over the course of 15 minutes, and was getting hurt multiple times. It was really the pressure and straight shots of Marshall that gave him the biggest issues.
But he put on a better showing over Farias where he by and large was the party who was able to dictate the pace and really do the breaking down in that matchup – he outlanded Farias 80-57 on significant strikes. However, he got clipped a few times in that outing as well despite showing better overall defense in comparison to the 1st DWCS fight.
He was tired down the stretch there too, but Farias was just more tired and Matthews was the more effective guy over the course of 15 minutes.
Most recently, he landed a healthy amount on Buzukja but was still effectively out struck, losing the overall exchanges 77-57 at distance and eventually got put down in the 3rd. So my biggest issues with him are that he’s still somewhat rigid to where he’s susceptible to counter shots, can struggle more if he’s put on the back foot and really lacks defense.
Overall, he’s still a bit raw but is working with a good crop of guys in the New England Cartel, and the dude has that dog in him as a former military member. But he’s going to have to clean up his defense quickly if he wants to keep a roster spot.
How it plays out: There are some parallels with both guys in being higher volume strikers but having defensive issues. However, I ultimately think Delgado is the more polished/diverse guy standing with more tools at his disposal. Of the two, Delgado is the more dangerous guy and he’s probably more durable as well, although both guys are relatively tough in my estimation. I like Delgado to win the minutes and bulk of exchanges.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m also unsure of Delgado’s floor background but we’ve seen some good and some bad.
In addition to Delgado’s pressure striking style, he’s shown to be a capable offensive wrestler in the open mat with singles and doubles. When on the ground, he’s shown respectable control, good GNP and a choke game with three RNCs and one d’arce choke.
His defensive wrestling/get up game has by and large looked decent outside of his lone pro loss to Mecate where he was taken down numerous times and ultimately grinded out. He got caught in a few submission attempts as well but was able to grit them out.
It was really the attritional attacks of Mecate that gave Delgado the biggest issue – that fight was two years ago though and Delgado’s 4th pro fight which needs to be noted.
Overall, given what we have, I’d assume the floor is where Delgado will probably struggle the most at the UFC level, but our sample is smaller and I do feel he’s capable offensively.
Matthews is a BJJ purple belt with the majority of his career successes coming on the ground, including five of seven wins via submission.
It’s still a bit hard to look much into though as the guys he subbed regionally really had no business being in a pro MMA cage.
In his defense, he got on top quickly, took their backs and submitted them with relative ease, so he handled them all accordingly.
But against Marshall, he realized no success and was outwrestled himself, giving up six TDs on 10 attempts with six minutes of control. Despite being tired though, he still showed that he can work up to the feet, but he also gave his back up on a few occasions.
Against Farias, he went 7/12 on TDs but racked up only five minutes of control as he lost position on multiple occasions. He attempted one inverted triangle, but it wasn’t really close and Farias was able to work up.
Nonetheless, it’s still nice to see he can wrestle with some attrition and hit some decent entries but the guy he fought was a base striker.
Most recently, he went 1/3 on Buzukja but wasn’t able to realize any meaningful success and Buzukja didn’t shoot any TDs on him.
Overall, it’s still a bit difficult to put an official stamp on Matthews’ ground game because I don’t rate any of the opponents grappling that he’s had success on and the one guy he fought that has a serviceable ground game in Marshall, he got outwrestled.
How it plays out: Given our sample, the ground is a bit tricky to cap as we’ve seen both guys have top/submission success in numerous fights but also lose in the wrestling as well. Both guys are capable of taking each other down but I don’t project a ton of control success for either from conventional positions. The floor seems somewhat variable, but I trust Delgado’s cardio a bit more.
Fun fight between two guys still getting their feet wet in their pro careers. I ultimately come down on the Delgado side for upside purposes, not only within the fight but in overall trajectory. Matthews is already 32 years old so he doesn’t have much time to develop and is already leaving his physical prime, whereas I can project some larger leaps for a guy in Delgado who’s a pretty intriguing prospect to me. I like Delgado to finish.
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On DraftKings, I’m interested in the pacing of this matchup and I like the Delgado side some.
I’ll be honest though, after watching Delgado get taken down, mounted, and give up rounds in his one pro loss, I was wondering why the hell the betting line was so wide. In theory, Matthews is aggressive, likes to wrestle, and would have a similar path to victory.
However, I think we can see the more complete skill set of Delgado in his recent fights. I like his range striking, where he primarily leans on a kicking game but also has nice boxing combinations. He’s very fast. His cardio also looks strong and his wrestling looks competent.
While the path to victory is still there for Matthews, I don’t really trust he can hold Delgado down for any length of time and I’d guess Delgado has a speed and athleticism advantage over Matthews.
Delgado rates out more as a round winner long term, but I agree with Luke that he has finishing upside in this matchup, as Matthews tends to get beaten up in losses.
Delgado is priced at 9k which is expensive, but he’s still being bet up on the moneyline and is now sitting north of -400 to win. He also carries an ITD line of -120 which is pretty decent.
I don’t view Delgado as the best finisher, but I really like the pacing in this matchup, and I think Delgado will have striking and wrestling equity. He landed 40 sig. strikes in six minutes on the Contender Series, with three takedowns and a knockout. That second round finish would have scored nearly 115 DK points.
My primary issue is that the wrestling isn’t guaranteed here, and while I think Delgado has a strong floor in a win, I think he’ll need a finish to secure a ceiling. Landing three takedowns and 100 sig. strikes in a decision will be fun, but that only yields an 85-90 result. At 9k that’s pretty strong, but probably not optimal.
So it would be totally fine to pursue other finishers in this range ahead of Delgado, and I’d like to spread my exposure out in general.
With that said, the pacing here makes it so that if Delgado does finish, lots of offense will likely come along with it, and that’s why we can see strong ceiling performances like he had on DWCS. Matthews isn’t very defensively sound so I like the upside for Delgado overall and wouldn’t be shocked if he hurt Matthews along the way.
Matthews at 7.2k is viable but I’m not overly excited by him.
I liked him a bit coming into his debut for takedown upside, where we saw him land seven on DWCS. That interests me a lot, especially as he was an aggressive fighter and grappler on the regionals. However, I also noted that he’s just no that technical, and now losing big to both Francis Marshall and Dennis Buzukja really concern me for his future hopes.
I don’t mind Matthews in that he’s aggressive, can strike and grapple, and may have some wrestling equity in this matchup. I just simply don’t trust that he’ll have a lot of offensive success.
If you want to play a bit of Matthews at 7.2k for salary purposes, leverage against Delgado and pacing upside, I think that’s fine. He’s a reasonable low-end secondary target. He’ll have a decent ceiling even without a finish, given the pace, though he’s only +500 to win ITD.
I won’t be super invested in Matthews myself outside a sprinkle of action.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Delgado by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
UNDERCARD
Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza
Fight Odds: Souza -110, Hill -104
Odds to end ITD: +350
DraftKings Salaries: Hill 8.2k, Souza 8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Coming off a tough decision loss to Tabatha Ricci, Angela Hill will look to get back on track this weekend against Ketlen Souza.
Hill is basically a striker, and she is always live to win striking fights. She lands 5.46 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.93 in return. She defends strikes at a solid 61 percent.
I respect Hill on the feet. She fights hard and can always have success in the clinch. She is also just very tough and has good durability. She can mix in kicks, punches, knees, and elbows. She is just so experienced and comfortable as a striker. She also has pretty good cardio in recent years.
Hill doesn’t really land many takedowns but she has faced great competition and has fought a ton of grapplers recently. She only lands 0.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. I have always considered her an underrated grappler and she actually landed two takedowns and submitted Pinheiro in her most recent win. She also landed five takedowns in her other most recent win against Denise Gomes. I do think she can sneakily take down low to mid tier fighters of this division.
Hill does defend takedowns at 74 percent which is solid, and I do think she has really improved her TDD over the years. Hill can be controlled for stretches. You saw that against Jandiroba and Dern in her last two losses. Those two are ELITE grapplers though and I have seen Hill scramble up fine vs other fighters. She also scrambled up well against Tabatha Ricci.
I just think Hill is a good competitor. She can strike in volume and is tough as nails. She also has decent tdd and is capable of taking down lower tier fighters.
I will say the main concern that I have for Hill is her age. She turned 40 last month. I also thought she underperformed against Tabatha Ricci. Had Hill been outgrappled or something, I wouldn’t have been as concerned. However, Hill got a predominant striking fight and only outlanded Ricci 112-101 in significant strikes. They actually tied each other 88-88 at distance.
I still honestly thought Hill deserved that fight, and I do think Hill got the better of the striking exchanges. However, the striking was way more competitive than I expected and I don’t rate Ricci as a striker at all. So I guess I am just saying that I am a bit worried of an imminent Hill decline and I had more confidence in her a couple of years ago.
Hill will be taking on Ketlen Souza who is coming off a massive club and sub upset finish win against Yazmin Jauregui.
Souza is 15-4 professionally and was the Invicta flyweight champion. She lost her UFC debut by getting submitted against Karine Silva. She then won a decision against Marnic Mann basically by outstriking her at distance. She then defeated Jauregui.
Souza is decent. She is a competent striker and is capable of landing big shots occasionally. She is not great. I don’t totally trust her volume or but she can crack a bit and has some decent skills on the feet. She has some decent hands and can mix in kicks. She is a competent fighter who can fight through the motions. She still was outlanded 29-16 at range against Jauregui though. So although Souza won, she probably needed that finish to win.
Souza is also a capable grappler. She can land some takedowns here and there and knows how to flow with BJJ on the mat. She can be stuck on her back though and is a little too willing to play guard. She still knows basic guard retention and can threaten with submissions. I also think Souza has good cardio.
Souza is just fine. She is a pretty well-rounded fighter with no major holes. However, she doesn’t thrive at anything either.
As far as this matchup goes, this would have been a clear play on Hill for me a couple of years ago. Hill is massively more proven than Souza and has way more experience. I also just think Hill generally always beats these younger newer fighters and has historically been underrated.
The age of Hill is just concerning me a bit though. If she had a competitive striking fight with Ricci, she very well may have a competitive striking fight with Souza. So I am really just passing on Hill because I think it is possible that Hill will underperform my expectations here like she did against Ricci in the striking exchanges.
I still will pick Hill to win though. I still thought Hill looked like Hill vs Pinheiro and she still showed vs Ricci that she can throw strikes at a high rate and had a good latter half of the fight. Hill will still fight very hard for three rounds and put up volume.
I think Hill probably has a volume advantage here. I honestly think Hill is a better wrestler too and may be able to land some takedowns and consolidate a bit of top position. I am going to go with Hill because I think at her best, she has a little more upside with the volume, experience, and sneaky takedown upside. I also don’t know if Souza will enjoy the pace that Hill brings.
I still have my concerns with Hill as I mentioned though. Souza is a decent fighter and it wouldn’t shock me if this was just a razor close competitive decision.
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On DraftKings, I don’t mind this fight for pacing purposes but it also very likely extends and will have a tough time finding the optimal for that reason.
I also like Hill in this matchup pretty clearly. It’s definitely possible she loses a competitive fight to Souza, but that seems like the base case in a loss. I could also see Hill pulling away in all areas and winning the fight cleanly.
Hill is priced at 8.2k and although she’s had historically weak DK performances, she’s actually scored 104, 109 and 104 in her last three wins.. primarily because she’s wrestled more.
Against Souza, I think Hill could wrestle. I’m not sure it would be a lot and I’m not sure she’d dominate, but 2-3 takedowns is possible. Couple that with 100 significant strikes, and you’re looking at 85-90 in a win.
I also just want to note that Souza is likely a bit overvalued based on her last two wins. Jauregui is an elite prospect, but she’s now been dropped in three of her last four fights, and she’s been essentially KOd twice. Clear chin issues. Otherwise, Souza beat Marnic Mann who’s among the worst fighters to be in this division ever, in my opinion, and I thought Souza would perform better.
Souza still throws hard, and she’s competent. But Hill has more volume upside and wrestling upside on paper. She’s way more experienced.
I don’t LOVE Hill from a fantasy sense and she’s only +625 to win ITD, but of the two, Hill is my preferred play. I could see her slightly exceeding value in a win and if others in this range underperform, Hill could maybe sneak her way onto the optimal.
She shouldn’t be too popular at 8.2k especially as the line is trending in the wrong direction. Still only a secondary play but one I would consider.
Souza at 8k is less interesting to me, especially if she’ll be more popular than Hill.
Yeah, she’s coming off a nice finish but Hill hasn’t lost ITD since 2019, which is a span of 18 fights. She’s been knocked down a couple times in that span though. Souza is only +550 to win ITD and I don’t think she finishes Hill often.
Otherwise, I just don’t know if Souza has the same upside. Can she land several takedowns? I doubt it. A couple is possible. She only landed 80 strikes against Mann so I’m not sure she’s competing with the 120 ss upside of Hill.
Realistically the pacing should be decent here, so if Hill has 85-90 point upside, I guess Souza does as well. As she’s the value side at 8k, Souza is viable.
I just personally am not excited by her in this matchup and I don’t think she’s a true value. I think she could fight competitively but it’s not a spot I love for upside. Outside of a sprinkle, I’d aim to be relatively light on Souza personally, though it’s fine if you have a stronger opinion toward her with Hill aging.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Hill by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Jared Gordon vs. Mashrabjon Ruzibaev
Fight Odds: Gordon -370, Ruzibaev +392
Odds to end ITD: -138
DraftKings Salaries: Gordon 9.2k, Ruzibaev 7k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jared Gordon will be entering his 9th year on the UFC roster and despite getting up there in age at 36 years old, he’s shown he can still go, and is coming off a close decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast – he’s 8-6 in the UFC and 20-7 as a pro. Mashrabjon Ruzibaev is a name that might sound familiar as Mashrabjon’s older brother Nursulton fights in the UFC’s 185 lb. division. He’ll be stepping in on less than a weeks’ notice to make his UFC debut, replacing Kaue Fernandes – he’s 20-7 as a pro.
The striking component:
Gordon’s never profiled as a great athlete but has always had some underrated boxing in my eyes. He’s been reckless and will let it fly at certain points, but mechanically I think he’s improved quite a bit over the years.
He’s also shown to be high output and push a consistent pace when his fights are upright, landing 5.7 SLpM at 55% and 7.5 DLpM at 50% — great metrics especially when you factor in his sample and number of UFC fights.
Gordon hasn’t been much of a power threat throughout his UFC run, and is more of a volume guy, but scored his 1st UFC KO over Madsen a few fights back and has hurt a couple of guys. He actually looked better than I anticipated on the feet against Green although I do think Green would have gotten to him at some point, minus the head butt.
He also went strike for strike with a quality boxer in Haqparast last time out – I thought he should have got the nod there, but it was a close fight.
His defense has broken down at points, but I do think it has improved over the years – 4 SApM at 56% and 6.1 DApM but at 61%.
I would say the main knock-on Gordon is that his durability has come into question, having been KO’d in three of his six UFC losses and he has slowed in some higher output affairs.
But he’s also shown good cardio the majority of the time.
Overall, Gordon is kind of meat and potatoes on the feet but is an above-average striker who’s mixed kicks into his arsenal and has outpaced 10 of 15 UFC opponents with a positive distance differential of +1.4/minute.
I’m unsure of Ruzibaev’s official background but his striking style resembles his brother’s.
He’ll be pretty low volume at range and really only throws in single shots.
His primary career merit has come in his blitzes as he’ll explode into range with big overhands, high kicks and jump knees which have compromised most of his opponents early – 12 of his 20 pro wins come via KO/TKO.
So, he’s fast and powerful but hasn’t faced much adversity back his way as his opponents haven’t thrown much back at him in the more extended exchanges we’ve seen.
He’ll move his feet relatively well on the outside but also doesn’t move his head all that much, so opponents have abbreviated flurry and counter success on him but not much.
That’s about all there is to say with him at this point.
How it plays out: There’s definite merit to Ruzibaev here as the faster, more powerful guy as we’ve seen Gordon clocked on more than one occasion. But it also needs to be noted that Gordon hasn’t been KO’d since 2019 and he’s got much more consistent volume patterns. Gordon will also generally push guys backwards where that may not be as good for Ruzibaev if he’s being forced to come off the back foot. Lastly, while Gordon isn’t the fastest or most dynamic guy on the feet, we just saw him go toe to toe standing for 15 minutes with Haqparast who’s a pretty solid, established UFC level striker back in June.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Gordon is a BJJ brown belt under John Danaher who’s one of the best BJJ coaches in the game. I’m unsure of his wrestling credentials but he’s shown to be a decent wrestler in MMA, landing 1.8 TDs per 15 minutes at 31%.
Wrestling has been a larger component in Gordon’s Ws in the UFC as he’s a solid grinder, but not much of an offensive submission threat.
The concern for Gordon is that he only stuffs at 62% and has had his back taken on more than one occasion. To Gordon’s credit, he’s been able to work out or survive almost all of those positions and hasn’t fought anyone lower than a brown belt status in his last 11 of his last 15 fights. But he was ultimately outwrestled by Solecki and got his back taken there.
More recently, he was also outwrestled by Dawson and eventually succumbed to a late choke for the 1st time in his career – he also got his back taken at multiple points in that fight – Dawson’s also a relentless grinder and Gordon did put up healthy resistance.
Overall, Gordon will win fights on the mat but has some poor tendencies at the same time, and can drop minutes himself on the floor against upper tier guys. But he’s still out controlling his opponents overall at a near 3:1 ratio which is a sound historic.
I’m also unsure of Ruzibaev’s floor background but I know his brother had some sambo and jiu-jitsu experience.
He hasn’t been a super proactive wrestler but has landed TDs in a handful fights. His opponents have more or less just fallen over though and his entries aren’t great.
When on the ground, he’s generally been lay and pray unless he’s getting on top of already compromised opponents. He’s got five pro wins via submission, but his two most recent ones were guard subs and he hasn’t been much of a passing force on top.
His TDD has generally looked poor when guys have shot on him and he’s specifically struggled with upper body trips and throws – other opponents have been able to secure on him from stuffing his initial entries and turning them into their own TDs as well – his hips are generally poor.
On the bottom, he’s been controlled for extended minutes in numerous fights and his guard can be passed. He’s also got stuck in numerous submission attempts, having been subbed twice, but has also worked out in other occasions.
Overall, the ground profiles to be more of a weakness for Ruzibaev especially as it relates to a UFC level.
How it plays out: I like Gordon here as he’s the better wrestler and grappler despite not having a lot of subs on his record. The guys that have given Gordon the biggest issues on the ground are quality black belts with sound transitional games which I haven’t seen on display from Ruzibaev. Additionally, assuming Gordon comes with a wrestling heavy attack, that’s going to wear Ruzibaev down over the course of the fight making any of his other attacks both standing or within the guard less effective. I’d be pretty surprised if Ruzibaev subbed Gordon and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon was able to finish Ruzibaev on the mat, especially if he’s tired.
This Ruzibaev guy doesn’t appear to be UFC level from the tape I watched but he is the type of fighter opponents need to mind their Ps and Qs with because he is dangerous. But if he doesn’t get Gordon out of there early, I don’t see much upside to him in an extended fight with a guy like Gordon who pushes a heavy striking and wrestling pace over the course of his fights. It also needs to be noted that Ruzibaev’s strength of competition has been terrible – of the 20 guys he’s beaten, only five have had winning records and most have had no business being a cage. So, I have some concerns early, but Gordon should win this fight at a sizable clip.
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On DraftKings, I like the potential upside of Gordon quite a bit.
Gordon was finally priced in at 9.2k today, making him a slight discount compared to the rest of the 9k tier. The finishing props aren’t out yet either but this fight is only -115 to go O/U 2.5 rounds, so I don’t expect Gordon to have elite finishing metrics.
Gordon won’t be a stand out in that sense. There will be other, more clear targets in this range that it is fair to gravitate toward first.
However, I just see Ruzibaev as a potential fraud. I am pretty skeptical of how he’ll fare in extended UFC fights against UFC level competition. Against an opponent like Gordon who can grind on you, on one week’s notice, I think a late Gordon stoppage is in play.
We haven’t seen the most elite ceiling from Gordon recently, but he’s put up some smash performances in the past.
Gordon has scored 135, 104, 111, 121, and 119 in various fights throughout his UFC career. Basically, he has some offensive accumulation upside where he can land multiple takedowns, tons of ground strikes and ideally secure a mid-round stoppage.
I’m not exceptionally confident here to the point that I’d roster Gordon above all others, but I do like the upside for him in this matchup, and I wouldn’t mind being above the field this week.
Ruzibaev at 7k will be in play as a pure, boom or bust, early finishing target.
I do think he has some tournament merit in that capacity. He’s explosive, and Gordon is a bit slow, and can be hurt on occasion. I would be pretty shocked if Ruzibaev looked great in the final round, but I would be much less shocked if he randomly hurt Gordon in the first minute. A lot of his wins come ultra-quickly.
It’s also never the type of spot I like to get carried away with. I won’t be heavy on Ruzibaev personally.
At 7.1k, he’s a fine low-end target for upside though. A fine sprinkle. I just don’t think he’s particularly good, nor is this a great matchup, and so I don’t expect to be much higher than the field here.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gordon by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium)
Rafael Estevam vs. Jesus Aguilar
Fight Odds: Estevam -495, Aguilar +370
Odds to end ITD: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Estevam 9.3k, Aguilar 6.9k
Weight Class: 125
Coming off a competitive victory over Charles Johnson in his UFC debut, Rafael Estevam will look to expand upon his undefeated record with a matchup against Jesus Aguilar.
Estevam is now 12-0 professionally at age 28, fighting out of the Nova Uniao fight camp, and he’s earned four wins by knockout, three by submission and five by decision.
Estevam won his contract on the Contender Series in 2022 by knocking out his opponent with ground-and-pound in the second round.
It was a decent performance, and is consistent with his game, which is mostly pressure grappling.
He will press forward, land takedowns, and land ground-and-pound. He’s also submission capable though I’m unsure how dominant he will be at the UFC level.
On the feet, Estevam is still aggressive, and can throw a lot of volume but he’s not the most technical guy. Still, the pressure and pace can slow opponents down and he has still has win equity standing.
The biggest issue is that Estevam may just not be the most technical guy in any area of the game.
His wrestling shots are sometimes questionable, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him fail against a better technician. Similarly, he should get outclassed by a better technician on the feet.
Estevam’s pressure is his best attribute in that sense, and we’ll find out soon whether it’s enough to have extended success at this level.
In his debut, Estevam had mixed success, landing three takedowns against Charles Johnson where he was able to rack up nearly 9.5 minutes of control. However he couldn’t hold Johnson down in dominant positions for long, and was only able to land four ground strikes in total, while attempting one submission.
Johnson had him clearly outclassed on the feet too, which was apparent from the start. Johnson nearly came back in multiple rounds with his boxing, and outlanded Estevam 53 to 11 at distance.
Estevam also got a bit tired late in the fight, and lost the third round. It makes me somewhat concerned for his future prospects, as he may be reliant on domination to secure any victories with consistency.
Now he’ll face Jesus Aguilar, who is shockingly 3-1 in the UFC and 4-1 if you include his DWCS performance in 2022. He’s a heavy underdog once again, which tells you how the public feels about his chances moving forward.
Aguilar is 11-2 professionally at age 28, and he’s earned one win by KO and seven by submission. That one KO actually came in the UFC and was a shocker, though it was against an opponent who is known for getting hurt.
Otherwise, Auilar doesn’t offer much on the feet. He’s averaging 1.46 sig. strikes per minute in a 37-minute sample, which is horrific.
He doesn’t really offer much at distance, and will sometimes rush into the pocket to land winging hooks. He’s just not a fighter I expect to land volume or really win minutes on the feet at this level.
Aguilar’s ground game isn’t great either but that’s still his speciality. Nearly all of his submission wins have come by guillotine which is a red flag, and I don’t actually view him as a dangerous finisher on the mat.
Yet he continues to have some success with it, and is coming off another win by guillotine where he put Stewart Nicoll out cold in the first round, after clearly losing the early minutes. Sigh.
His wrestling isn’t spectacular either. He averages 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and is reasonably competent in shooting them, but he’s not a great athlete and will often end up on his back. He also defends takedowns at 36 percent which is bad, but he can survive on the bottom.
I’m still pissed that he beat Mendonca in his fight prior, despite losing the takedown battle 4:1 and only landing 19 sig. strikes in the contest. But he survived dangerous positions when needed, and worked a little harder than Mendonca over the duration.
Simply put, I’m never going to back Aguilar with any confidence. He doesn’t have the offensive production to win rounds, and his most dangerous skill set is the guillotine which largely doesn’t work at the highest levels.
There is some element to Aguilar surviving when necessary, and for that I respect him. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to pick him to win often.
Here against Estevam, I view Estevam as the better wrestler. He should be able to land takedowns, and from there, he’ll have an opportunity to take Aguilar’s back. Nicoll had Aguilar’s back within the first minute of the last fight.
Again, Aguilar may scramble out of it and survive, but the point remains that the path to top control and a dominant position is there for Estevam. It should just lead to him winning the fight, whether it’s through ground-and-pound, a submission, or round by round control.
If the fight plays out on the feet, while Estevam concerns me, Aguilar doesn’t really throw the volume necessary to threaten him. Minutes could still be competitive and maybe Aguilar would win them, but he tends to want to grapple anyway so I wouldn’t view Estevam as in much danger there, and it’s possible he’d just be able to land more than Aguilar anyway.
The real issues would come if Estevam gets tired and can’t take Aguilar down. Then, maybe Aguilar can take him down. If we get a fresh Aguilar on top of a tired Estevam, Aguilar can win. That’s how he beat Mendonca late.
Or, Aguilar will jump on guillotines again. You never fully know how a fighter will deal with them, but he’s a black belt in BJJ so in theory I’d trust him to survive.
I just expect the pressure wrestling and grappling of Estevam to be enough to win two rounds here, or find a finish, considering Aguilar is weak defensively. But Aguilar’s survivability will at least keep him live to mount a comeback if Estevam slows down.
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On DraftKings, I like Estevam a fair amount but he’s priced up to 9.3k which will make him a bit trickier to prioritize.
Shahbazyan, and Gordon are priced directly below him, and both will be in play as well. And others like Bonfim, Delgado and Rodrigues are priced even further down the slate. Zalal is above him. So you certainly don’t have to make Estevam an outright priority and I expect I will have many lineups that don’t include him.
However, you can argue that Estevam is one of the more grappling heavy fighters on the slate, and he may also have one of the easier paths to takedowns given his opponent. His path to a finish is not as strong though, at +100 ITD, but that’s still a pretty decent mark and shows finishing upside.
In Aguilar’s lone UFC loss, he was submitted in round one, so it’s surely possible.
I like Estevam’s ceiling for that reason. He should be attempting takedowns, and he should be landing takedowns. If he can’t get a finish, my guess is that he won’t be optimal. But he’ll have an opportunity and his finishing metrics are decent, so I don’t mind Estevam in this range and consider him a strong target overall.
Aguilar at 6.9k obviously doesn’t interest me much, but he’s not out of play.
He could win an extended fight. He could jump on a guillotine. He could maybe land a takedown or two. I just think he sucks, and he doesn’t produce a lot of offense, but he’s winning fights..
He’s only +560 to win ITD here though, and I’d guess he again won’t be producing a whole lot of offense. His lone decision scored 60 for what it’s worth.
He makes for a reasonable punt in comparison to the rest of this range, but I won’t have much exposure to Aguilar overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Estevam by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Khaos Williams
Fight Odds: Bonfim -213, Williams +180
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Bonfim 8.9k, Williams 7.3k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun firefight here between Gabriel Bonfim and Khaos Williams.
Bonfim has had a bit of a weird UFC run. He is 16-1 professionally and 4-1 in UFC affiliated fights.
In Bonfim’s first few UFC fights, he basically just submitted guys very quickly and usually with a guillotine. He has a BJJ black belt, and I consider him to be a pretty dangerous submission grappler, especially early in fights. He likes body lock takedowns, and he will bait opponents into a front headlock position to jump on a guillotine. It is pretty clear that an early submission for Bonfim is a definite path to victory for him at this level.
However, Bonfim had never been to the scorecards as he was generally submitting all of his opponents early on the regionals too. He was then matched up against Nicolas Dalby in a fight where we actually played Dalby as a major underdog. Bonfim had early success but Dalby, who is a veteran in extended fights with a great gas tank, weathered the early storm and then beat the breaks off of Bonfim.
It wasn’t much of a surprise as early finishers tend to struggle when they get tested and put through adversity in extended fights.
Bonfim then bounced back after the Dalby fight with a win against Ange Loosa in his most recent fight. The fight actually went the full 15 minutes and it was promising to see Bonfim win a fight like that. He at least showed that he can fight and strike for a full fight without collapsing against a live body. He landed 101 significant strikes and doubled Loosa up at distance.
At least we know Bonfim can potentially win striking fights at this level. He is a decent striker with a decent jab, and I consider him dangerous early. I do think the power on his shots looked a bit gone in the latter rounds against Loosa though, and I still do question his ability to fight through adversity. We will see how he looks going forward.
Bonfim will be taking on Khaos Williams. Williams is mostly a striker. He has not even attempted a takedown in the UFC. He obviously has power and is capable of knocking people out. So that will always be a path to victory for him.
However, Williams actually isn’t a bad striker when fights get extended either. Khaos is landing 5.81 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 5.42 in return. He defends strikes at 42 percent. I don’t think Williams is super technical as a striker, but he is extremely athletic and manages range well with his quickness. He is also very good at unloading counter hooks if you come into the pocket. I consider him very dangerous and capable of knocking opponents out dead.
Williams defends takedowns at 80 percent and has okay first layer tdd. He really hasn’t been tested much as a defensive grappler though and hasn’t faced a ton of wrestlers. He was only taken down by Michel Pereira, twice. His bottom game honestly looked bad, and he may be a liability on the mat. That fight was over four years ago so Williams could have improved. I really don’t know. So his defensive grappling is actually a bit of a mystery.
As far as this matchup goes, this is a tough fight to break down because there is data lacking on Williams’ defensive grappling. Bonfim very well may body lock Williams, take him down, and finish him on the mat. With that upside alone, I do think it is fair to pick Bonfim to win.
However, I truly don’t know if Bonfim will easily get Williams down and if Williams can keep this fight standing, it may get sketchy for Bonfim. On the feet, I definitely think Williams is more likely to win by knockout. Williams may be tougher than Bonfim too. Williams is sneaky durable and has never lost by knockout or by finish in general. So Williams does have some advantages here and is capable of winning this fight.
However, Bonfim may be able to compete on volume and win a competitive decision as well. We just saw Bedoya take Williams to a split decision. Bonfim having a tight striking decision with Williams seems reasonable too. I think it will just get very sketchy on the feet in general.
I am going to go with Bonfim though just because I have always been skeptical of Williams’ bottom game, and I think it could get exposed here
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On DraftKings, this fight is definitely on my radar and it feels like the winner should put up a decent score.
Bonfim is largely known as an early finisher, so like Tim said, it was a pleasant surprise to see him comfortably fight for 15 minutes. I still have hesitancy though, as Loosa didn’t put up a ton of resistance.
Khaos Williams is just aggressive, and powerful. And it’s led him to many knockdowns in the UFC. Together, he and Bonfim could be fireworks.
Bonfim is priced at 8.9k and I like him enough to target him. He is +120 to win ITD which is pretty strong, and arguably the most intriguing part of his fantasy profile.
Also, Bonfim may have the wrestling edge here. It seems reasonable that if Bonfim wins at all, it could come early by submission. At 8.9k, it would be enough for Bonfim to flirt with the optimal.
The reasons I’m still a bit cautious are that even in some of his early wins, Bonfim hasn’t smashed because he’s just jumping on guillotines. He has a 97 point first-round win, for example.
And if Bonfim can’t get Williams out of there quickly, I’m really nervous that an extended fight is not going to suit him. It probably diminishes his finishing equity, and might cost him the fight outright.
So I consider Bonfim still pretty boom or bust. If he fights another strong 15 minutes here, I’d be thrilled for him. That only led to 77 points against Loosa though so it’s not ideal from a fantasy perspective.
Just based on the matchup, I’m hopeful we see these men collide early, and therefore I don’t mind Bonfim as an upside play. I just don’t consider him very safe.
Williams at 7.3k is among my favorite underdogs on the slate.
He has real knockout power, and he’s knocked down five of his last eight opponents. We’ve seen him go the distance and land 130 sig. strikes as well.
Plus, I’m still skeptical of Bonfim. Dalby murdered him, basically just by surviving into round two. Clearly, Bonfim can fight through some fatigue, but I’m worried that big shots from Williams will drain his gas tank quicker.
Ultimately, it feels like Williams has a real shot here. He’s +250 to win ITD and has multiple avenues to succeed, if he can survive the early going.
He may be a bit popular, coming off a 105-point win, and that makes me nervous. He may also just lose quickly. But Williams is among the more talented fighters in this bottom tier, and it’s not a terrible matchup.
I’m optimistic for the upside of Williams enough to consider him a strong secondary target at 7.3k, though I won’t expect to end up drastically above the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bonfim by Guillotine, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith
Fight Odds: Smith -157, Morales +136
Odds to end ITD: +210
DraftKings Salaries: Smith 9.1k, Morales 7.1k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Vince Morales was a part of one of the early seasons of Contender Series back in 2018 but lost in his opportunity. He was brought into the UFC later that year as a short notice fill-in and went 3-5 before being cut four years later. He’s now back in the promotion for his 2nd stint, and is looking to rebound from dropping his re-debut in September – he’s 3-6 in the UFC and 16-8 as a pro. Elijah Smith hails from the Fury FC promotion and made good on his Contender Series opportunity this past September. He’ll be making his UFC debut on Saturday – he’s 7-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Morales comes from a boxing background where he won multiple titles as an amateur before turning to pro MMA. His boxing base is on display in his MMA fights as that’s largely what he is, a boxer. You won’t see him kick much but he will utilize a lot of lateral movement.
The issue is, he can accept the back foot often and has been susceptible to leg kicks in past fights. He was actually finished via calf kicks in his loss to Chris Gutierrez.
But when he’s looked to take the center in his fights, he’s done better in certain spots but also struggled against rangier fighters.
Morales has some power components though, as he’s finished seven of his 16 pro wins via KO – however the majority came back on the regionals where it hasn’t translated as well to the higher levels. But he has scored knockdowns in three of his UFC fights against Pillarte, Lopez and Smolka.
If Morales just had more of a sense of urgency to consistently go forward, throw and dictate the pace of his fights, he’d realize more success.
To his credit, outside of the Gutierrez fight, he’s been competitive on volume numerically in the majority of his fights and has looked good standing against both Rodriguez and Smolka. He did get dinged up a bit by Pillarte and finished with those kicks from Gutierrez, but he’s largely shown to be durable in the aggregate.
He most recently struggled severely with the technicality of Lapilus though.
Overall, I’ve never been a huge Morales guy as I think he’s largely one dimensional and generally makes fights more difficult than they need to be. He has shown a bit more urgency in his recent regional run though, which is a bit encouraging.
Smith is still getting his feet wet as a fighter at 22 years old, having had his first amateur fight a little less than four years ago.
He comes from a wrestling background, but we’ve got a decent sample of him standing as well.
Traditionally, he’s fancied as more of an explosive/blitz based striker as his volume hasn’t always been high. But he’s got fast hands and power to boot, with four of his seven pro wins coming via KO/TKO. So, opponents definitely have to mind their Ps and Qs with him.
I think he’s improved technically from some of his early fights but is still sporadic at times.
My biggest gripe with him is more so his defense. Despite him moving a healthy amount, his guard is either low or relatively loose to where opponents can land. He’s additionally had problems with kicks and general attrition in the past.
We saw him slow down in his only pro loss to Reyes Cortes where he got KO’d in round three – additionally in his recent fight on Contender Series against Tau, he was gassed out in round three and got out struck in that round 56 to 30. He just did enough in the first couple rounds to secure that win but the tides started to turn towards the end of the 2nd. In totality, Tau landed on him at a 56% clip – in fairness, that guy’s an animal and just kept coming forward while also taking big shots.
Overall, Smith is capable on the feet for a guy who just started striking in the last 3-4 years but he’s really going to struggle at the UFC level in extended exchanges especially if he’s not in the driver’s seat and tired.
How it plays out: The stand up is somewhat interesting. Smith will realize a speed and power advantage which isn’t great for Morales but at the same time, Smith isn’t super high volume and isn’t of the technical/defensive striking caliber of many of the guys who have given Morales the biggest issues. Morales is hittable but he’s a tough guy that’s only been stopped with strikes once, which was via leg kicks. So, Morales can absolutely win the striking here if he walks through some fire and turns this into more of a dog fight. The issue is, he just hasn’t been consistent in looking to force that.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Morales won a state championship in wrestling his senior year of high school, but his wrestling hasn’t translated well to the UFC, only landing 0.4 TDs per 15 minutes at 30%.
It’s been the defensive wrestling that has given him some issues in the past, stuffing at 66%.
He dropped the 2nd to Zahabi in what was a close round on the feet, but the TD was the difference maker. He then dropped the 3rd to Song where he was taken down twice and controlled for roughly half of the round. Pillarte caught a kick in the 2nd, passed his guard, took his back and submitted him. His first pro loss came via armbar as well, back in 2015.
However, his get-ups against both Rodriguez and Martinez did look much improved despite being taken down multiple times in both outings – he also held Johns to only one TD on 12 attempts before he was sent packing.
He’s still only conceding 6% of control time in the UFC though so he has been difficult to hold down in the aggregate.
It’s really in this most recent regional run where we’ve seen him look to wrestle and grapple a lot more to where he realized some decent success. It also appears that he’s fallen in love with front chokes, with three of his last five coming via the method.
Overall, the ground has been more of a liability for Morales in the further past but does appear to have made some recent evolutions.
As noted, Smith comes from a wrestling background where he’s been competing since the age of five. His original plan was to play football in college though so I’m not sure if he had any opportunities to wrestle at the next level. COVID ultimately happened which then turned his sights to MMA.
In MMA, he’s shown really quick entries to double leg TDs and also possesses some solid trips and throws. We’ve seen a bit all over the board from him on the ground as he’s been more aggressive with GNP or taking backs in certain fights, but has been more lay and pray/mat return/grindy in others.
He’s a BJJ purple belt but only reps one pro win via submission – he had a nice front choke attempt on Contender Series though. Because he’s still developing as a striker, he can also shoot from too far out at times and shoot naked. He landed five TDs on 11 attempts against Tau last time out, but only got a little over two minutes of control.
He also didn’t realize extensive control against Cortez in his only loss so there is a common theme there of him slowing when not securing early finishes, or in being provided with more effective wrestling resistance.
Overall, Smith’s wrestling is good enough to win fights on the mat in the UFC, but I still have concerns for him when facing more competent TD defenders.
How it plays out: Smith will be the better wrestler and has the speed on his entries to land some TDs on Morales. However, I think he’s probably going to struggle in controlling Morales for extended periods of time as I do think Morales’ get-ups are pretty solid. Conversely, I wouldn’t project much wrestling success for Morales. Where I do think Morales is sneaky though is with his front chokes. As noted, Smith can telegraph some of his shots and shoot from far out, especially when he gets tired, so I see some equity in Morales wrapping something up.
Really weird fight. You’ve got a 22 year old kid in Smith who has some solid attributes and a potentially bright future in the UFC but is also very green in current form. On the flip, you’ve got a 34 year old Morales in his 2nd UFC stint who’s by and large been an underwhelming fighter but has also had to fight a lot of solid guys. If Morales had more urgency in his fights, I’d highly consider picking him to win outright because I don’t think Smith is going to have an easy time controlling Morales and I don’t think it’s going to be easy to knock Morales out. When you couple that with a suspect gas tank for Smith, Morales is live to turn the tides in this fight. But I’m still going to lean to the more youthful fighter in Smith with more wrestling and damage upside.
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On DraftKings, Smith is priced way up to 9.1k where I expect most will have trouble fitting him in.
This is largely because he opened as a heavy favorite, but the dog Morales has been bet throughout the week, and Smith is now only -155 to win. I honestly agree with the line movement, and I would consider picking Morales outright here.
I really like the speed and back transitions for Smith, and he’s clearly strong in that area. But I haven’t seen overwhelming finishing ability on the mat, so he seems more like a fighter who will be reliant on large amounts of control. He’s far too limited in his stand-up, especially in terms of volume, and his cardio is questionable as well.
I’m really not a fan of Morales in any sense. He’s a limited boxer at best, but he’s much more experienced than Smith and with the damage criteria being heavily factored, I could easily see Morales finding the upset by just landing a few more punches throughout.
The positive for Smith is that he’ll need several takedowns, or a submission, or a TKO to win. So there is some upside in his style.
In his DWCS fight, Smith scored about 90 DK points with five takedowns and a decision. So there’s still a path where he may underwhelm some, land a lot of takedowns, and squeak out a 100 point score if he can earn enough control.
And there’s some finishing upside as well. He’s only +410 to win ITD which is really poor, and I don’t think his ITD line should be drastically better, but he will chase occasional chokes and does explode on the feet.
Ultimately, I don’t think I’m going to play much Smith. He’s clearly overpriced now and there are other fighters I like more in this range, both with grappling upside and finishing equity. I see Smith as a potential long term fade in his current state, unless he develops much more once he’s in the UFC.
However, I’m guessing he’ll be low owned due to the line movement, and his game is still built upon wrestling. It wouldn’t be crazy if he flirted with 90-100 points in a wrestling based win, so there’s some contrarian merit here. I’ll be relatively light myself.
Morales at 7.1k is far from a must play, despite the clear line value.
That value will be attractive as he’s pushing +135 to win at 7.1k, and I think that will draw a fair amount of attention.
However, Morales just doesn’t score very well. He rarely wrestles, and he’ll be lucky to land 70 significant strikes. In his two decision wins in the UFC, Morales has scored 68 and 54, and I don’t think we’d get much better here given that he may be held down for a few minutes here.
From a floor sense, there just isn’t much with Morales. In a competitive loss he could easily fail to reach 20 DK points. In a win, he could score less than 60 DK points. That’s really not very attractive to me, despite the obvious win equity compared to others in this range.
He’ll still be in consideration for cash games but I don’t think he’s a great play by any means.
From an upside sense, Morales could land a couple takedowns of his own I suppose, or maybe catch Smith in a submission if Smith tires out. Or Morales could win by KO. He’s only +410 to win ITD though which is a reflection of his overall lack of finishing ability.
Again, for the value, it’s OK. You can target a bit of Morales in the hopes he finds a mid-round stoppage. He has some win equity. I just don’t love the base floor/ceiling case and I also don’t love the idea of him being chalk. I’d guess he won’t be full chalk despite the value.
I’m probably going to be near the field by default, or ideally underweight if Morales projects to be popular.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Smith by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Valter Walker vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Fight Odds: Walker -240, Mayes +200
Odds to end ITD: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Walker 8.7k, Mayes 7.5k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a shitshow low-level fight here in the heavyweight division between Valter Walker and Don’Tale Mayes.
Walker is a Brazilian fighter who is 26 years old, and is a towering presence at 6’6” with an 81-inch reach. He is actually the brother of UFC veteran Johnny Walker. He is 11-1 professionally, generally fighting poor competition on the regionals. He is 1-1 in the UFC.
Walker is kind of a pressure fighter / grappler. I actually think he has a pretty good double leg for a heavyweight. He is somewhat explosive with his level change and he is capable of landing takedowns and holding top position. His cardio looks okay but not great. I do think he can land takedowns at this level though, especially early in fights. He also just pressures decently to put his opponents close to the cage to make it easier for him to land takedowns.
I still don’t think Walker is a great submission grappler though. He only has two submission wins on his resume, and I generally think if he gets finishes from top position in the UFC, it will come from ground-and-pound. I haven’t seen him tested too much as a grappler defensively.
On the feet, Walker can pressure and land some shots in close quarters. He has some decent power in close range. He isn’t a skilled striker though, and I think he is a borderline liability on the feet in extended fights. He lost his UFC debut in a close decision loss to Lukasz Brzeski by losing the striking exchanges. He got outlanded 55-23 at range by Brzeski, and I just thought his striking looked pretty bad.
Overall, Walker just looks like a guy who can probably bully grapple below-average heavyweights in the UFC. He will also just probably be dangerous early in fights in general. I question his ability to strike in extended exchanges though, and he doesn’t look like the most technical fighter in the world. I do think his wrestling can win him some fights though.
Walker will be taking on Don’Tale Mayes. Mayes is a really big guy at 6’6” with an 81” reach. He is also a mild to moderate athlete for a HW. So his size and decent athleticism help him. He just isn’t that skilled though.
Mayes generally has struck in his UFC fights. He lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.79 in return. He defends strikes at 46 percent. He isn’t even fighting the best competition and is still absorbing more strikes than he lands which isn’t good.
I do think Mayes is somewhat competent on the feet. He can switch stances. He has a decent jab and can mix in straight punches and hooks. He also likes to mix in occasional kicks, especially a front kick to the body. I do wish he had a bit more power though. He is capable of hurting opponents, but I don’t think he has big time power.
I really disliked his performance against Augusto Sakai. Sakai outlanded him 53-29 in significant strikes and Mayes just looked bad. It made me even less confident in him going forward. He recently lost to Rodrigo Nascimento and also didn’t look great. He was scared of the pressure from Nascimento. He then was taken down and held down by Gaziev for a bit and lost a decision in his most recent fight.
I don’t think Mayes has the worst defensive grappling in the world and he defends takedowns at 58 percent. However, he definitely has some issues. When he is actually grounded, he can get held on his back a bit. Furthermore, even when he works up by the cage, he can be held against the cage on his feet. This happened against Sakai and Gaziev. I just hate how much he gets held vs the cage. Mayes has only landed takedowns in two of 13 UFC fights, and I don’t expect offensive wrestling to be a real path to victory for him.
Mayes just isn’t very good. He can strike a bit. However, he still isn’t a good striker and lacks power. He also has defensive grappling issues.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going to go with Walker because he has a grappling path to victory. I do think he can land some takedowns here and there throughout this fight. That will probably minimize the offense of Mayes and give Walker a chance at a decision.
I still do worry a bit for Walker. Although I think he can outwrestle Mayes, I do think he could potentially fail on some takedowns and Mayes can work up at times. So these guys may strike for a couple of minutes a round or so. I do think Mayes is a better striker here. Walker just looks bad on the feet. So Mayes will have some windows of opportunity to land some strikes which the judges may prefer to the control of Walker.
I still wish Mayes just did a bit more offensively though. He sometimes isn’t urgent enough and doesn’t have the power for me to be confident that he can really make Walker pay on the feet. So I will go with Walker to get enough grappling going in this fight and sneak away with a win.
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On DraftKings, I like Walker at 8.7k as a relatively dependent grappler.
He lost a close decision in his UFC debut, but would have scored 86 in the win. And more recently, he scored 112 in an early finish.
The positive is that his floor should be strong and his ceiling should be strong as well, given his style. He needs takedowns, and this is the HW division, so may have domination/submission upside when he can land them.
The downside is that I thought Brzeski might upset in him that UFC debut, as a big dog, because I thought Walker was pretty vulnerable standing. I don’t really have faith in him long term as a prospect. I’m not all that confident he beats Mayes.
However, if Walker wins, what does it look like? It’s probably 3-4 takedowns, many minutes of control, and potentially a submission. Walker is +230 to win ITD which is mediocre.
That is a potential red flag. In a fight that’s actually -140 to go the full distance, I’m less excited by Walker than I might have been otherwise. An extended fight probably means it’s semi-competitive.
I still like Walker because he’s priced at 8.7k. He can reasonably reach 100 points in a win and contend for the optimal. I do think 75-85 type decision scores are in his range of outcomes too, so I won’t get carried away. But especially when I need some savings off the top, Walker provides a style that has upside attached to it.
Mayes at 7.5k is OK.
Really, I don’t want to play him. He probably gets stuck on his back for a while. I don’t think he will wrestle offensively with any urgency. He’s +315 to win ITD.
Walker allowed 58 sig. strikes in his decision loss which is like 55 DraftKings points. I think a 60 point score for Mayes in a win is semi-realistic. So my concern is really with the ceiling.
Even if we get the fight we want for Mayes, and he defends takedowns, what can he do with it? Without an early KO, his upside isn’t great. The floor is weak.
I won’t be playing much of Mayes for this reason. But I do think he can win the fight, and perhaps that’s enough at 7.5k. I’d label him a low-end secondary target overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Walker by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Julia Avila vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Fight Odds: Cavalcanti -706, Avila +490
Odds to end ITD: +220
DraftKings Salaries: Cavalcanti 9.5k, Avila 6.7k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a random fight here in the bantamweight division between Jacqueline Cavalcanti and Julia Avila.
We actually bet Cavalcanti in back-to-back fights as she won a split decision against Josiane Nunes and Nora Cornolle.
Cavalcanti is now 3-0 in the UFC and is generally a range distance striker. She employs a lot of movement on the outside and looks to land her kicks and punches on the outside, and skate away from her opponents.
Cavalcanti outlanded Zarah Fairn 126 – 39 in significant strikes and outlanded Josiane Nunes 91-52 in significant strikes. She then tied Cornolle 54-54 in significant strikes. She lands 6.02 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 in return. She has pretty good range control and defense and is defending strikes at a fantastic 72 percent.
I overall think Cavalcanti is a fine striker who can win rounds on the feet at this level. I do think she lacks a bit in power and aggression though. She was definitely the better and more skillful striker in her matchup against Nunes and outlanded her comfortably. However, Nunes made the fight more competitive than it should have been by simply being the aggressor and landing some occasional power shots. So optically, Cavalcanti may struggle a bit even if she is outlanding her opponents.
Cavalcanti doesn’t look to grapple much and doesn’t look interested in wrestling offensively. She actually hasn’t attempted a takedown in her three UFC fights which spans nine rounds. Her defensive grappling looks competent, but I haven’t seen her tested there all that much either. She defended 8/9 takedowns against Cornolle which was good.
Cavalcanti will be taking on UFC veteran Julia Avila. Avila’s last time in the octagon was against Miesha Tate where she got obliterated on the mat. Tate just showed to be the better wrestler in that matchup.
Avila isn’t a bad striker. I don’t totally love her volume as she only lands 2.59 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.86 in return. However, she is pretty powerful and just seems to consistently land effectively. Her striking numbers may be a bit skewed as well because she has had a couple of lopsided losses on the mat where she was absorbing a ton of strikes and landing none in return.
Avila’s best performance was probably against Pannie Kianzad where she hurt Kianzad badly. She has some pretty powerful punches and can mix in the occasional kicks. She also seems tough. I do worry if that power doesn’t show up though because her volume isn’t that great.
Avila is a decent submission grappler. She can threaten with sweeps and submissions but she doesn’t really offensively wrestle much. Her TDD isn’t great and only defends takedowns at 50 percent. She was taken down by Sijara Eubanks three times and literally showed no get-up game. The same thing happened against Tate. Good grapplers can control her.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think this line is probably a tad wide. Neither of these girls wrestle much so we probably will get a striking fight that is heavily favored to go the distance. Cavalcanti is coming off two split decision wins against girls who are not even very good. We could get another tight fight here.
I still favor Cavalcanti. I like her volume more than Avila’s. Cavalcanti will likely skate around on the outside, land more than Avila and set herself up to win a decision because of that.
I still just worry to a degree. Avila has not been losing fights in the UFC by getting outstruck. She has been getting outgrappled. Avila has generally been very competitive at range and actually has some power as well. So Avila could compete here and a power strike could swing a round in her direction.
I still think Cavalcanti will land more though, and I will always favor those fighters to win. So I will pick Cavalcanti to win a striking based decision that will probably be competitive at times.
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On DraftKings, Cavalcanti looks like an outright fade to me at 9.5k.
I like her quite a bit for her range striking skill set, but she’s shown very little power components and she’s shown no offensive grappling. That’s going to limit her to massive volume based performances or quick finishes, which still may not be enough at this price tag.
In this matchup against Avila, Cavalcanti is +260 to win ITD which honestly isn’t as bad as I would have thought. I’d be pretty surprised if she knocked Avila out though.
Maybe she can randomly start to land takedowns but if anything, I’d guess Avila is the better grappler outright.
Cavalcanti has scored 66 and 65 in her last two decision wins, and I just don’t see a real reason to play her. She’s my least favorite fighter in the 9k range by far, especially at cost. She may be super low owned though so if you’re looking for a spot to be unique, Cavalcanti is viable.
I just think we’d need some real outlier performance for Cavalcanti to stand out in this range, and I’m not going to make an investment here personally with a limited number of lineups.
Avila at 6.7k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
She’s a huge dog, and may not be able to produce much offense. I actually don’t hate her though. Cavalcanti going to split decisions in back-to-back fights is pretty concerning, and I think you could make an argument that Avila is just as good or better than those past opponents.
So even from a cash perspective, I think Avila could go the distance here, land 50 strikes and maybe a takedown. It’s still not a great result and could score her 10-20 points in a loss, but the fight probably plays out more competitively than the betting line.
Avila may have sneaky wrestling equity too. She has taken down 2/5 UFC opponents and she has one submission win. It probably is a path to victory for Avila though I doubt she really pursues it or is capable of it.
But again, it just wouldn’t be too shocking if Avila landed two takedowns, and won two competitive rounds. I don’t think she’d score massive either way with a +800 ITD line, but I could see her outperforming many others in this bottom tier.
I won’t really be playing Avila but there’s some floor based merit with her at 6.7k.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Cavalcanti by Decision (Confidence=Medium)