UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 (2/8/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
Fight Odds: Du Plessis -200, Strickland +170
Odds to end ITD: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Du Plessis 8.6k, Strickland 7.6k
Weight Class: 185
Oh boy, a rematch for the middleweight title between Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland. Who’s ready for some action?
The first fight between the two was fun. Strickland was coming off a “shocking” upset over Adesanya, while DDP had just knocked out Robert Whittaker. I thought the general dynamic was pretty clear, with Strickland being the better, more consistent boxer, and Du Plessis being the more powerful and more dangerous one. I expected Strickland to have more success as the fight progressed and was worried about the cardio and defense of Du Plessis. I didn’t think the wrestling would come into play much.
Largely, that’s how the fight played out but it was closer than I expected, and Du Plessis performed better down the stretch than I expected. Overall, I would say his power attempts (not lands) were the primary reason why he got his hand raised in what was a very competitive split decision.
I broke down that previous fight round-by-round below, in a very condensed manner.
RD 1 – Strickland has a lot of success with his jab, outlands DDP to the head 28-8. DDP attempts a fair number of strikes but big swings and misses. He scores a nice double leg takedown late in the round but cannot hold Strickland down. Drags him down a second time but with no control. Clear Strickland round.
RD 2 – More of the same. Strickland still outlands DDP 20-11 to the head but DDP closes the total gap on attempts and lands at 26-22 in favor of DDP. No major shots landed on either side but DDP big swings give him optics advantage. Lands one takedown late but unable to control Strickland. Close round lean DDP.
RD 3 – Another close round, same dynamic. It’s clear Strickland is the better boxer but he’s not throwing enough power shots. DDP just marching forward throwing bombs, almost always missing. Strickland outlands DDP 31-29 overall and 29-13 to the head, no takedowns. Close round lean Strickland.
RD 4 – DDP able to connect on some bigger shots early, opens up a cut on Strickland. Strickland still actually outlands him 33-29 and 32-22 to the head but bigger damage to DDP clearly. He lands three takedowns as well but no control really. Clear DDP round.
RD 5 – Fastest pace round by far, Strickland throwing more power shots than before. Competitive but Strickland too much success, outlands DDP 53-35 and 48-27 to the head. Finally defends takedowns too. Clear Strickland round.
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Du Plessis is now coming off another comeback victory over Israel Adesanya, but I don’t care too much about that fight in how it relates to his chances against Strickland. Nor do I care much about Strickland beating Paulo Costa.
I think these two match up pretty well and I expect a very similar fight to what we saw the fight time.
Strickland is going to fight out of his boxing shell, and look to jab the head off of DDP. He had a ton of success doing that in the first fight, and outlanded him to the head 157-81 overall. However, strikes landed is not what the judges care about, nor do they care about damage.
In fact, judges can’t even really see what’s going on from their small corner of the Octagon. They aren’t looking at stats. You just have to hope they see the correct angles and can tell when strikes miss and land. The reality is they cannot.
So despite Strickland having more success from start to finish, it was Du Plessis who was clearly attempting the bigger strikes. Big swings. I didn’t count a single strike in the first three rounds that bothered Strickland, but the fact remains that DDP attempted about 200 of them in those first 15 minutes.
Strickland is not throwing nearly as many power strikes, and jabs are often not extreme deterrents. So Strickland was getting caught up in this issue where he’d allow DDP to march forward, throw bombs, miss, and jab as a counter but the optics still favored DDP who was attempting bigger shots.
Strickland still won a clear first round, but rounds two and three were far more competitive as Strickland wasn’t pushing the pace and was allowing DDP to come forward too often. Then we saw in round four where DDP actually did land a big strike or two and cut Strickland open, it was a dominant round for DDP.
The wrestling is also a factor that favors DDP, though it doesn’t really matter too much. DDP landed 6/11 takedowns and six of his first nine. He could not control Strickland at all though, and Strickland got up immediately. Still, activity favors DDP.
So I worry for Strickland in this rematch who lost a split decision, despite dominating both the total strike numbers and the head strike numbers. My opinion is we need to see him push the pace more, and/or attempt more power strikes.
In that final fifth round, Strickland really stepped on the gas pedal and 99 sig. strikes, which was far more than we’d seen in any of the previous four rounds, and it helped him secure that fifth. Going toe to toe with DDP on attempts won’t cut it unless he can avoid basically every big strike DDP throws.
Regardless, I see this fight playing out similar to the first one with a similar result. Strickland doesn’t really have enough power to bother DDP and put him out, but he will have consistent opportunities to jab at DDP, and will probably outland him per minute again.
DDP is going to have the clear power advantage, and he’ll have more KO upside. He can also flip a round despite losing it clearly, if he lands 1-2 big punches at any moment, which is a huge advantage. He also fought well throughout the championship rounds and I don’t fear for his cardio as much as I did the first time.
Wrestling will still be an advantage to DDP but he had zero success on his takedowns in the last fight, so I really don’t think his wrestling will be that impactful here either. Maybe if he can take the back of Strickland but I don’t think that’s an easy path and I think the winner will be determined by the striking.
Very realistically, we’re going to see both fighters win rounds, and potentially win multiple rounds. I think Strickland is the clear value side of the matchup at current odds (+170), but if this fight goes five rounds, I wouldn’t be shocked to see DDP win again just based on the power dynamics.
So I think picking either side is pretty fair, and I’d line it as a near pick’em personally.
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On DraftKings, both sides are going to be very much in play and this fight could very well be viewed as an outright priority.
Du Plessis is priced up to 8.6k, and he scored 119 in his last decision win over Strickland. He does have some KO upside and has a +190 ITD line, but I don’t think that matters much as his ceiling is probably higher in a decision than in a mid-round KO.
Du Plessis won’t land similar volume to Strickland in total, but he can still land 120-140 sig. strikes which is a solid enough floor. If he can continue shooting takedowns on top of that, even if he doesn’t control Strickland, we’ll likely see him reach a similar number in a win.
The real issue would become if DDP abandons his wrestling, and if the fight is even closer than the first time. 130 significant strikes and two takedowns is only 92 points, which may not be enough at 8.6k. Six takedowns and 130 sig. strikes is north of 112.
Strickland was not defending the takedowns well at all, so I do expect DDP to mix in wrestling again and I’d project him for a few takedowns at least. I don’t think we’ll see much real control but ultimately, if DDP is to win this fight, he very likely will need to produce a significant amount of offense, which should result in a strong DK score.
I expect DDP to be among the highest owned fighters on the entire slate, if not the highest, but I’m fine to play into the ultra-chalk. It’s very realistic that you will need him for the optimal lineup, even if he’s 50% owned.
With that said, I like Strickland a lot too at 7.6k and I don’t mind splitting your exposure here given the price value.
Strickland scored 71 points in a loss last time out, and in a win, he would have topped 100 (barely). He will have less upside than DDP overall, with a poor +600 ITD line and very minimal wrestling equity.
However, his striking volume is super legit and he’s going to need to land a ton of strikes to win this fight. He could also knock Du Plessis down at some point so I wouldn’t completely rule out that outcome.
At 7.6k, we may not need the 110+ points from Strickland anyway so a 90-100 point score should be enough for him to contend with the optimal.
I do think Strickland will be quite popular as well, but not as popular as DDP. There are other interesting dogs in this range that the public will pivot too often, and many just don’t like Strickland as a person and won’t play him for that reason. Either way, Strickland will carry some leverage against DDP which is intriguing.
I’m personally expecting a close fight and probably a close decision. I think the easiest call is just to have heavy exposure to the fight overall and split your action pretty evenly. Most will probably have a moderate lean toward DDP, which is fine as well. I think our bigger edges will come elsewhere on the card and I’d rather just invest in having the winner on a large number of my rosters.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Strickland by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez
Fight Odds: Suarez -116, Weili +101
Odds to end ITD: -140
DraftKings Salaries: Suarez 8.2k, Weili 8k
Weight Class: 115
Finally, Tatiana Suarez is both healthy enough and positioned well enough in the women’s strawweight division to challenge for a title. She will have her work cut out for her against the reigning champion Zhang Weili though.
I’ve been waiting and waiting for Suarez to receive this opportunity since she entered the UFC back in 2016, where she won the TUF Finale. She’s won an additional six bouts since that time, but has had her career largely derailed once again due to neck injuries.
It’s not the first time Suarez has been deterred from competing though. While training for the Olympics in 2012, Suarez suffered a neck injury which actually led to a Thyroid cancer diagnosis.
Devastated, Suarez had no recourse but to move on from the Olympics and regain her health. Once she had done so, Suarez picked up Mixed Martial Arts where she’s become a black belt in jiu-jitsu, and a devastating grappler.
Suarez is now 11-0 professionally, and after her most recent neck injuries which kept her on the shelf from 2019 to 2023, she returned to defeat both Montana De La Rosa and Jessica Andrade. That last bout against Andrade came in August of 2023, as again, Suarez has suffered injuries since that has kept her out of fights.
It becomes challenging to fully analyze Suarez in that sense. She’s an elite fighter, and an elite grappler. But her body is very clearly shopworn, and now she faces the toughest test of her career at age 34 off another 1.5 year layoff.
Regardless, we know the style that Suarez will implement. She will try to wrestle, scramble to a dominant position on the mat, and work for a finish. She can shoot a wide variety of takedowns and chain them together better than most in the women’s divisions.
Suarez currently lands 6.20 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at nine against Carla Esparza in 2018. She also defends takedowns at 100%.
On top, Suarez is physical. She’s a strong submission grappler and has racked up four submission wins in the UFC, including back-to-back guillotine finishes. She also wiped out Alexa Grasso, the former flyweight champion, with a RNC choke in less than three minutes in 2018.
On the feet, it’s a different story, as Suarez isn’t dedicated to a range boxing game and we haven’t seen the best work from her in that regard. She does land 4.37 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 1.38 per minute, but that’s largely because she’s in control and isn’t forced to box.
Purely at distance, Suarez lands 4.4 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.2, which is strong. Only 27% of her fights take place at distance though, which is far below the divisional average of 59%.
I wouldn’t say that Suarez is a bad boxer, but I wouldn’t be betting on her to win fights at distance. The last real footage we have of her at distance came against Nina Nunes in 2019, where Suarez outlanded her 42-39. Suarez got a bit tired in round three and so they traded at distance in that round, which resulted in a 29-29 strike count with Suarez landing 17 leg kicks, but losing the head strike battle 19-7.
I do think Suarez is a good enough athlete to compete on the feet, and since 2019, I’m sure she’s developed her boxing. I just don’t have faith or confidence that she would easily beat a fighter like Zhang Weili on the feet, and instead, it would be a means of surviving minutes while she prepares to wrestle once again.
Weili has won four in a row since she lost back-to-back fights against Rose Namajunas, and is coming off a pretty impressive showing against Yan Xiaonan.
She’s a very well-rounded fighter, and should have tools to win fights wherever they take place.
In recent fights, Weili has had a lot of success wrestling, landing six takedowns in back-to-back fights herself. She controlled Amanda Lemos for 16 minutes on the mat, and she controlled Yan Xiaonan for nearly 13 minutes, putting her in dangerous spots on several occasions.
She’s also a legit striker, and averages 5.66 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.15 per minute. We’ve seen her top out at 165 and 163 sig. strikes landed over 25 minutes on a couple of occasions. Purely at distance, Weili is landing 5.6 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.3, with 60% of her fights playing out in that space.
While I don’t think Weili easily knocks Suarez out, I do think it’s fair to favor the champion should this fight take place solely on the feet.
Weili is far more experienced over five rounds, she throws more volume, and I would trust her to compete more in a firefight situation than I would Suarez. While I trust Suarez as an athlete, I’m not even completely sure she has the cardio to fight a hard five rounds as the last time she entered a third round in 2019, she was a bit tired.
The one caveat is that Weili has also been knocked out, while Suarez has not. Namajunas knocked her out in 2021, and Xiaonan hurt her in 2024. Suarez could in theory hurt Weili though I just don’t see consistent enough power to put too much stock into that outcome. I don’t think Weili is likely to KO Suarez either, though I do think a cardio based TKO with Suarez failing on takedown attempts down the stretch is a possibility.
Realistically, the success Suarez has on the ground will dictate this fight. And that’s still a bit tough to project.
On one hand, Weili is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and she showed the ability to work up from the bottom in her recent fight. I don’t think one takedown for Suarez means the end of the fight.
On another hand, Weili is defending takedowns at a career rate of 50%, which is bad. She just gave up three takedowns to Yan Xiaonan, which is pretty concerning as well. And against Namajunas in 2021, Weili lost because she gave up late takedowns and could not get back up to her feet.
So I definitely think Suarez can land takedowns in this fight, and I think it’s fair to project something like 4-5 over an extended period. If Weili can allow less than that, she probably just wins the fight.
But 4-5 takedowns over 25 minutes definitely gives Suarez a realistic chance to earn control, threaten dominant positions, and win rounds. Possibly, it’s enough to take home the title.
I feel somewhat uncertain here given the injuries and the layoffs with Suarez. I also think Zhang Weili is still improving and I don’t want to discount her abilities or experience. However, Suarez is an elite athlete, and an elite wrestler for this division, and she’s also going to be bigger than Weili with a few extra inches of reach and a larger frame.
I’m going to pick Suarez to have wrestling success and get her hand raised, as she has done in all of her fights up until this point.
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On DraftKings, Suarez is one of the more obvious plays on the slate at 8.2k and it’s quite possible she ends up extremely chalky this week.
As the fight is lined very competitively, Suarez is only priced at 8.2k which means she will almost certainly exceed value and contend for the optimal in a win. Her past wins have scored 99, 100, 99, 157, 104, 115 and 121.
Again, those were all three round fights, many of which ended inside the distance. Now she gets a five round fight with more opportunity to work. While a five round fight poses some problems, should Suarez win a decision, I have to imagine her wrestling success will carry her to a big score. In a win ITD, her ceiling is arguably less though it’s still more than enough to target at this price tag. Suarez is +210 to win ITD here.
Weili is priced at 8k and is the trickier side to analyze as she won’t carry nearly as much wrestling equity here as in past fights. Possibly, she’ll carry no wrestling equity at all and won’t be able to land even one single takedown.
Even in a win, Weili may be forced to win an extended fight where she’s getting taken down and held down at times early. She could still rack up some non-significant strikes but I don’t think she will be able to produce offense at a high rate like we have seen from her in other spots.
If I had to guess, we could see something like 80-100 sig. strikes landed for Weili over 25 minutes in a win, with another 50-100 non-sig. strikes. Possibly she gets 1 TD or 1 REV mixed in, with a small amount of control. That would score in the 90-100 range and potentially contend for the optimal as well.
There is still a ceiling question mark without a finish. Weili is +210 to win ITD so she will have some KO/SUB equity, but again, she might not wrestle offensively at all and may have multiple rounds where she’s giving up 3+ minutes held down on her back.
I’m still willing to target Weili. In part, because I don’t know the full extent and shape of which Suarez will show up. It’s possible Suarez could be gassed by the championship rounds. And in part because a competitive five-round decision for Weili may still be enough at 8k to put her in the mix.
Publicly, we’ll see where the betting line goes but I do think we’ll get a split of exposure, with this fight being heavily owned in total. There will be a segment of the market who is ultra-heavy on Suarez, and she may very well end up as the more popular target. But Weili is still a near pick’em and coming off massive wins that scored 155 and 191, and as the champ, she’ll get a lot of exposure as well.
Personally, I will probably lean moderately toward Suarez given her wrestling path and upside there. I wouldn’t fault you for leaning in the other direction though, or splitting to make it easy.
It’s a great fight, and among one of the best to target on this slate, given the dynamic and the price tags.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Suarez by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
Fight Odds: Teixeira -141, Tafa +122
Odds to end ITD: -600
DraftKings Salaries: Teixeira 8.4k, Tafa 7.8k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an old school heavyweight slugfest here as UFC debutant Tallison Teixeira will take on long time UFC veteran Justin Tafa.
Teixeira is a Brazilian fighter who is 7-0 professionally. He is 25 years old. He is a huge guy and stands at 6’7” with an 83 inch reach. He is just a massive human being. He booked his ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series where he won by first round knockout.
I mostly consider Teixeira a striker who basically looks like an early finisher. He comes out aggressively and searches for the knockout. He throws straight punches, will mix in some head kicks and spinning stuff. He clearly has power and can knock people out just because he is huge, aggressive, and hits hard. That is all we have really seen of him. He has never been out of the first round and he has just basically quickly knocked out all of his opponents.
Teixeira is also apparently a BJJ black belt. However, I have never seen him grapple or really even attempt a takedown. I have seen him defend some takedowns. However, his grappling in general lacks data. I still don’t even think he looks like he will grapple much. He just looks interested in going for knockouts.
I definitely have some concerns with Teixeira though. First, his competition has been awful and he is knocking everyone out early. He has never been out of round one and we have never seen him in an extended fight so we have no idea what his cardio will look like. These early finishers generally don’t look great in the UFC in extended fights. I do think Teixeira can finish guys early in the UFC at heavyweight because heavyweight fighters suck though.
Furthermore, Teixeira’s defense looks terrible. He was tagged a lot in that Contender Series fight and he definitely has some tall man defense. I mean if he keeps getting hit clean like he was in that Contender Series fight, he is going to get knocked out badly at some point.
I still think Teixeira is clearly dangerous on the feet and can win by knockout. His ground game, cardio, and everything else is still a mystery.
Teixeira will be taking on Justin Tafa. Tafa is basically a power striker. He lands 4.09 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.02 in return and defends strikes at 47 percent. I honestly don’t consider him a good striker over the course of 15 minutes, and I don’t totally trust his cardio. However, he is okay and he is very dangerous early. I respect his power when fresh and all four of his UFC wins have come by first round knockout. He has at least fought to a decision in the UFC. It was a three round loss to Vanderaa but at least he didn’t get finished and showed he can sort of still function in the latter rounds.
I also consider Tafa pretty tough. He has only been knocked out once, which was in his UFC debut against Yorgan De Castro.
Tafa has never landed a takedown in the UFC, and I don’t consider offensive grappling a real path to victory for him.
Tafa is a poor defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 50 percent. He was dominated on the mat in his last matchup to Karl Williams and any decent grappler can likely give Tafa issues.
As far as this matchup goes, I feel like whoever I pick to win is going to randomly get knocked out lol. That is what kind of fight this is.
On the feet, I honestly doubt this fight extends. I think Teixeira will come forward aggressively early and look for the knockout. He very well may get it. However, he may get countered because he has no defense and Tafa has serious power and may make Teixeira pay. I legitimately almost picked Tafa because I really think he can hit Teixeira very hard here. Tafa is also a little more proven in extended fights too and has fought the higher level competition.
This is a tough one though. Both guys can clearly land and it is really a fight of who just happens to get hurt first.
I do think slightly favoring Teixeira is reasonable because he has an additional theoretical path to victory with grappling because he is a BJJ black belt, and Tafa is bad on the mat. The issue is I have never even seen Teixeira grapple and he doesn’t look interested in grappling. I really think these guys are going to strike.
Teixeira is also at a big size advantage and will be seven inches taller than Tafa. So that is an advantage as well. Still, Teixeira has tall man defense, is hittable, and doesn’t use his height advantage defensively. I really just think someone is going to get knocked out here and I don’t even think this will get out of round one.
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On DraftKings, this is definitely one of the better fights on the slate to target, and it might be a hilarious fight in reality.
Teixeira is just massive, and on the Contender Series, we saw him be all-out aggressive. If he continues with that style, he’s going to beat the crap out of a lot of fighters, but he almost certainly will get knocked out cold by some as well.
The fight is currently -600 to end inside the distance and I would be pretty surprised if we saw the fight extend past the midway point.
As always, the issue with these types of fights is that we may see the fighters gas, slow down, and fail to produce offense in an extended fight. If this fight gets out of round one even, it could be a bust.
None of Teixeira’s fights have extended though and assuming he fights somewhat aggressively, I do think we see someone get hurt here early.
Teixeira is priced at 8.4k and is an obvious tournament target for early finishing equity. He’s -120 to win ITD which is a very strong line for this kind of price tag, and he has clear upside on paper.
I do hesitate a bit in the sense that Tafa is tough and has only been knocked out once, but Teixeira is so damn big, he’s going to land on Tafa early. Maybe he has wrestling equity too. I don’t necessarily even lean toward him winning in this matchup (I have no idea who to pick), but his size and grappling background give me hope.
He will likely be quite popular but I don’t care too much as he has clear early KO upside. He could be viewed as a primary target even, and I’d like to have moderate exposure to him outright.
Tafa at 7.8k is a very strong tournament target too and possibly the better target of the two in this matchup, if he projects to be lower owned. I doubt he will project to be much lower owned than Teixeira but I do think the hype leads more people to rostering Teixeira than Tafa.
So the larger the discrepancy is between Tafa and Teixeira, the more interested I will be in Tafa. He is much smaller, and doesn’t really have many paths to victory besides a big KO. We haven’t seen Teixeira knocked out yet but it’s surely coming, and Tafa has enough power to put him away.
All things considered, it would be totally fine to prioritize Tafa outright over Teixeira. It will feel like a major risk when you see the two square off and stand in the cage together, but it’s a competitively lined fight for a reason.
Tafa also has clear early finishing equity at +165 to win ITD and I think investing in this fight moderately or heavily makes sense. Fading in spots with the hope it extends and the public gets screwed is viable if you have a large portfolio to play with.
I’ll lean toward Teixeira myself but it won’t be a dramatic lean and I will probably aim to have as many mid-range combos as I can with the winner of this matchup, the main event, the co-main event and Borshchev/Nolan.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Teixeira by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Fight Odds: Bellato -159, Crute +137
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Bellato 8.5k, Crute 7.7k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an absolute mess of a fight here between Rodolfo Bellato and Jimmy Crute. I truly went back and forth a million times here on picking a winner.
Bellato is a Brazilian fighter who is 12-2 professionally. Both of his losses came to Vitor Petrino by knockout, and one of those was on the Contender Series. He got invited back to the Contender Series and won to book his ticket to the UFC.
Bellato took on Ihor Potieria in his UFC debut and was badly hurt, but survived and then finished Potieria. When I say badly hurt I mean BADLY hurt. The ref easily could have stopped the fight.
Bellato is okay. He comes from a BJJ background and I believe he is a brown belt in BJJ. He will crash the clinch a lot on the feet and look to land takedowns and get his top game going. He looks like a mildly capable submission grappler, but I still don’t think he is the best wrestler. He is okay as a grappler. His defensive wrestling is a bit untested but I have seen him end up on his back and play guard which I don’t totally love.
On the feet, Bellato is also okay. He likes to pressure a lot and land some inside punches, and maybe mix in some leg kicks or the occasional knee. He is somewhat dangerous and has a bit of power. I still don’t think he is all that technical but he is aggressive and will try very hard for 15 minutes. He has been hurt here and there and doesn’t have the best defense though.
Bellato is just a rinse and repeat fighter. He just comes forward, lands his big strikes, and then crashes the clinch and looks for takedowns. If his takedowns get stopped, he basically just does the exact same thing again. He is an okay fighter who tries hard.
Enter Jimmy Crute who is a true question mark right now. Crute had a rough four-fight winless streak against Alonzo Menifield twice, Jamahal Hill, and Anthony Smith. He showed some poor fight IQ and durability in some of those fights. He then decided to retire after the last Menifield fight which was two years ago.
Now I guess he is returning. It is hard to know where his head is at, what kind of form he will be in, and whether or not he is competing to win or for a paycheck. I’ve heard him speak about how he just needed time away from the sport, to heal his mind and his body, which I can understand. It’s still difficult to trust.
Crute is a decent fighter. On the feet, he has a bit of power and has won by knockout several times. The issue is he is not very technical and doesn’t have the best defense, and has been knocked out or hurt himself. I just hate his defense on the feet.
Crute is probably best as a grappler. He had a memorable performance against Michal Oleksiejczuk where he landed eight takedowns in round one and finished Oleksiejczuk. Sometimes he doesn’t decide to wrestle at all though.
When Crute decides to grapple, he does have decent takedowns. He can land ground-and-pound on top and threaten with submissions and get dominant positions. He can be a little sloppy at times though and end up in bottom position.
As far as this matchup goes, this is just a mess. On the feet, both guys have power and no defense, so a knockout could occur at any point for either guy. I think I slightly trust Bellato a little more on the feet throughout 15 minutes. He is a little less sloppy and doesn’t get as fatigued looking as Crute. I also trust Bellato’s willingness to fight hard and look to win. He doesn’t look like a guy who will quit. Crute may honestly just be showing up for a paycheck.
As far as the grappling goes, I think it is also a mess. Both of these guys are capable grapplers, but both are sloppy and lose position at times. I think I favor Crute as a pure wrestler and I think Bellato is a bit untested defensively as a wrestler. I could see either guy having grappling success but I lean a bit more towards the Crute side as far as a proven wrestler.
This is a tough one man. Part of me wants to pick Crute, but I just don’t know how he is going to look. I also think Bellato is going to try really hard to take his head off and I hate the defense of Crute. I am going to pick Bellato but this is a stay away from a betting perspective.
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On DraftKings, I’m pretty interested in this one after looking into it.
I honestly didn’t realize Crute retired, nor did I realize he was unretiring. Listening to him speak, I can understand where he’s coming from – this is a brutal game. However, it’s just fully hard to know what kind of shape he’s in, whether he’s improved, or whether he’s in worse fighting condition than before.
Bellato on the other hand nearly lost to Potieria, who’s a bottom of the barrel talent and has already been cut from the organization. That UFC debut took place in 2023, so it’s been a while for Bellato as well.
Regardless, I think there’s a pretty decent chance this one ends inside the distance, and that’s backed up by the -250 ITD line overall. It could end early too, as four of Crute’s last five wins came in round one, and each of his last four losses came in round one or two.
Bellato is priced at 8.5k, and I like him. I think an early finish is a pretty realistic win condition for Bellato, and it could come with grappling success too. I’m zero percent confident he gets the job done, but he’s an aggressive fighter and Crute has both durability issues and gas tank issues.
Bellato is -105 to win ITD which is pretty strong and at 8.5k, I like him as a tournament option. This is just another strong mid-range fight to target which makes me really want to load up in this range this week.
Crute is also interesting as a 7.7k underdog. I don’t have faith in him either but his ceiling is really strong. He basically needs grappling domination or a knockout to win, as I don’t think he’s going to be the best round-by-round winner.
My bigger hesitation with Crute even outside of his retirement, is his grappling inconsistency. We’ve seen him land eight and six takedowns in fights before, with eight takedowns coming in one single round. I really love to target fighters like that, and we saw him score 138 points in that eight-takedown win.
It feels very, very risky to load up on Crute, but he’s had a long layoff, healed up, and fighting in front of his home crowd against a Brazilian off a layoff who’s had to travel a bunch. It’s not a terrible spot for Crute.
At 7.7k, with a +265 ITD line, I think Crute is a pretty strong underdog target for upside. I wouldn’t mind being overweight to him personally though I acknowledge it’s a risk.
Leaning in either direction is fine but this fight is projected to end ITD at a high rate, and it’s possible both sides get overlooked due to general question marks. There’s some bust risk in an extended fight but it feels like it’s going to be a chaotic matchup with finishing upside, so I’ll be willing to take some risks.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Bellato by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
Fight Odds: Matthews -240, Prado +200
Odds to end ITD: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Matthews 8.8k, Prado 7.4k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jake Matthews will be entering his 12th year on the active roster as a guy who came into the UFC at 18 years old. He’s had a decent run but has generally struggled when taking steps up in competition where he’s traded wins and losses over the last five years – he’s 13-7 in the UFC and 20-7 as a pro. Francisco Prado’s a younger guy who bypassed the Contender Series back in 2023, debuting as a short notice fill in. He’s since gone 1-2 in the UFC and is 12-2 as a pro.
The striking component:
Matthews’ game on the feet is interesting. He’ll play the mid-range to aggressor at times but will often accept the back foot. He more so fights in flurries and doesn’t really put on a consistent pace over the course of a fight which has given credence to some close striking affairs.
In doing so, his output is on the lower end – 3.4 SLpM at 44% and 3.9 DLpM at 38%. His defensive metrics are solid though, sitting at 2.5 SApM at 61% and 3.0 DApM at 67%.
So, Matthews issues aren’t so much defensive based (in the aggregate) but that he can be backed up and slowed down over 15 minutes. We’ve seen him slow against Meek, Li, Brady and Morales in the latter rounds.
But I also don’t love his willingness to brawl at times as he will drop his head on his hooks – you don’t see a ton of straight punches from Matthews.
He does have some power though and despite only having two UFC KO, he’s scored five KDs in four of his fights – hurt Martin as well.
Matthews looked excellent in his fight with Fialho though where we saw a more consistent pace and he generally just looked very clean.
But then he nearly died three times against Semelsberger on every blitzing attempt that came in and ultimately lost the fight – kind of interesting because Fialho and Semelsberger have some parallel components and Matthews looked diametrically different in both outings.
Overall, Matthews’ stand-up is decent, but his output and optics aren’t great over 15 minutes if he’s not landing those knockdowns or when he’s not fighting inferior strikers.
Prado comes from a taekwondo background where he recently received his black belt.
However, he doesn’t really fight like a taekwondo guy as I’d describe him more as a mid-range to pressure thai boxer. He isn’t particularly active at range outside of throwing kicks or a single shot but then he’ll burst in with barrages of punches.
In doing so, he’s not the most technical but he’s got some pretty fast hands and heat on his punches.
However, he’s got some good counter hooks within the pocket that can make guys pay if he catches them hanging out too long or overextending.
Defensively, he’s faced little volume back his way, so he’s largely just been able to do what he’s going to do. But we saw the jab of Mullarkey and body shots of Azaitar give him some issues more recently. He obviously put Azaitar down with a spinning elbow.
But we did see a lot of volume both ways in his last fight against Zellhuber. Prado had a decent start, but the attritional work built up for Zellhuber – Prado struggled with the length and outside strikes of Zellhuber specifically.
Overall, he’s a scrappy 22-year-old who you can’t sleep on, but I still feel he’ll continue to struggle with more effective range strikers with good footwork.
How it plays out: The striking is somewhat intriguing here. We’ve seen Prado get beaten by outside based games more than once now and Matthews has played that game generally well and is good on the counter. He’s also far better defensively than Prado. The issue is that Matthews will go backwards which is bad optically and he doesn’t throw a ton of volume. So, if Prado can pressure more effectively in this matchup and look to keep his work rate up, it’s probably competitive on the feet.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Matthews has shown some wrestling chops in the UFC, landing 1.6 TDs per 15 minutes at 41%, which is slightly better than the divisional averages.
When on top, he’s shown good control components with 40% of his fight time spent grappling and of that 40%, he’s in control positions 62% of the time. Matthews also reps a BJJ black belt and has five sub victories in the UFC but three of them came down at 155 lbs. One of which was over a world-class black belt in Vagner Rocha which was pretty impressive but an anomaly in fairness.
Defensively, he stuffs TDs at 64% which isn’t great but his struggles on the mat came more so at 155 lbs.
He was submitted against Martin though after he shot a sloppy takedown and got his neck wrapped up – did sweep Martin at the end of the 2nd round though.
We saw him look pretty poor on bottom against Brady, but Brady’s also a top 15 fighter, good wrestler and a solid black belt which needs to be noted – Brady outwrestled Michael Chiesa (largely) not that long ago for context.
Him getting taken down three times by Semelsberger though isn’t a particularly good look.
The issue with Matthews despite the higher strength of comp he’s looked poor against, he has put himself on bottom going for guillotines (which I hate) and has played guard, dropping minutes there.
He got Phil Rowe down in round three but got swept and gave up some minutes before Rowe lost position chasing the back, to which Matthews rode out the rest of the round securing that victory. If Rowe didn’t lose that position though, Matthews would have lost the fight assuming he didn’t work up.
Overall, Matthews is stronger when he’s in control positions, but his bottom game hasn’t looked great.
Prado’s a BJJ purple belt and we have seen a healthy amount of ground time in his fights.
Offensively, he’s been able to secure TDs without much issue back on the regionals where he’s been able to rack up a healthy amount of control time and has been able to find submissions or just pound guys out.
However, his success on the floor has come over lower quality opponents.
I have seen him swept and or lose top positions though, and his general TDD isn’t very good as when guys have committed to shots, they’ve gotten them with regularity.
We more recently saw Mullarkey have a decent amount of floor success on him in his debut – he did sweep Mullarkey later in the fight but couldn’t do anything with it.
Overall, I don’t foresee a ton of offensive ground upside for Prado at the UFC level (obviously opponent dependent) and feel he’ll struggle with more physically imposing guys with good top games that can posture out of guard subs. But as noted, he’s still a young guy and has recently moved stateside to train out of ATT and the Goat Shed.
How it plays out: The bulk of the ground upside should lie with Matthews as he’s the physically stronger guy, better wrestler and submission grappler. But as with every Jake Matthews breakdown, he’s a difficult guy to trust to wrestle with consistency on a fight to fight basis – even in matchups where he has clear advantages on paper like he does here. So, the upside is there for Matthew to land multiple TDs, bank some solid minutes and maybe even submit Prado but is he going to do it? Hard to say. On the flip side, I say Matthews has a “bulk” of the ground upside and not all because he’s still not a great TD defender at 64% and will play guard – I just don’t think Prado is a very good wrestler and trusting him to wrestle in the fight is also difficult.
Good booking. I’m assuming this is the last fight on Prado’s contract and I’m not entirely sure why he’s moving up to 170 lbs. I think Matthews has all the tools necessary to beat a guy like Prado but as noted, trusting Jake Matthews to fight intelligent game plans is pretty difficult at this point and if he fights sub-optimally here, it’s probably a close fight. Nonetheless, Matthews is the better, more experienced fighter with a higher ceiling so he’s my pick to win.
—
On DraftKings, I consider Matthews a boom or bust target who’s priced affordably enough to take a shot on.
He’s a real tough guy to trust, to the point that I probably won’t make a large investment here. He’s so inconsistent with his wrestling attack, and sometimes he just looks terrible. Prado has enough tools to give him issues on the feet, potentially, so if I’m targeting Matthews I really want him to wrestle aggressively.
If he can do that, Matthews has early finishing upside and enough fantasy upside to contend for the optimal lineup. He’s scored 123 and 117 in a couple of fights though that came a long time ago. He’s actually scored 100 points or more only once since 2016, which is shocking. He’s scored 97, 96, 99 and 98 in that span, but his high in his last 16 fights is 103.
To me, it’s really an issue with Matthews’ style. He’s not urgent enough offensively, and doesn’t produce enough offense.
I don’t hate him for 8.8k as I definitely think he has a grappling advantage over Prado. That could lead to an early submission and an optimal score. Matthews is +280 to win ITD.
I just worry that he’s too reliant on an early finish to reach value and even then, we haven’t seen him completely smash. With multiple championship fights on this card and a lot of strong options scattered throughout, I’m worried Matthews doesn’t have quite enough of a ceiling for me to target heavily.
So I’m leaning toward using Matthews as a salary play, if I’m in mid-range constructions and can’t pay up to the 9k range. Otherwise, he’s just a mix-in and boom/bust grappling target.
Prado at 7.4k is viable but he’s not a favorite target of mine.
I think the best case for Prado is that Matthews fails to get his grappling going, and then Prado just wins by being more aggressive throughout, possibly hurting Matthews at some point. Prado actually has a +280 ITD line on some books, so his finishing equity is being respected here.
I’m just not the biggest fan of Prado. Matthews probably won’t yield many takedowns, and this isn’t a spot where we’ll see tons of striking volume either. Prado is acceptable for knockout upside but he’d still be a low-end target in that case, and I’ll aim to be light on exposure to him overall.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Matthews by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos
Fight Odds: Santos -226, Jenkins +190
Odds to end ITD: +135
DraftKings Salaries: Santos 8.9k, Jenkins 7.3k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a damn good fight here between Gabriel Santos and home crowd favorite Jack Jenkins.
Santos made his UFC debut in March of 2023 against the very solid Lerone Murphy. He had success in that fight and arguably won. He was a bit outmatched on the feet but had his moments and competed just fine there. He also landed five takedowns and threatened Murphy on the mat. It was a back and forth fight and a good performance by Santos.
He was then knocked out in a war against David Onama in a fight that could have gone either way as well. Most recently, he beat the breaks off of Yizha to a dominant decision win. On the regionals, Santos was 10-0.
Santos is kind of a freestyle fighter. I think he is a BJJ brown belt. He honestly has some pretty solid takedowns. He even ran the pipe on a single leg against Murphy which isn’t something I am used to seeing Brazilians do. He also is a decent back taker which he showed against Murphy and he has four wins by RNC on his professional record.
I think Santos can land takedowns and threaten with back takes and submissions at this level.
Santos is also a decent striker. He will come forward and throw hands and has good leg kicks as well. He has a few knockouts in his career, and I consider him a competent striker. I also just think he is tough and will fight hard for 15 minutes.
I do worry about Santos’ defense and willingness to brawl a bit though. He is a very skilled fighter, but I do think he is sometimes just a little bit too aggressive. I feel like it puts him in unnecessary danger at times. Even against Yizha, a fighter he was much better than, he brawled a lot and I feel like he takes too much risk. He is still a very good fighter though, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he made it to the top 10 or 15 at some point.
Santos will be taking on Jack Jenkins. Jenkins is an Australian fighter who is 13-3 professionally. I was actually impressed taping him before his UFC debut a couple years back. He booked his UFC contract by getting a third-round finish in his Contender Series bout. In that fight, Jenkins landed four takedowns and just beat the breaks off of his opponent. It was almost uncomfortably bloody.
Jenkins showed his offensive grappling in that fight. His takedowns look okay, and he has a decent understanding of BJJ on top with a decently heavy top game and good GNP. I liked that performance from him.
Jenkins then fought Don Shainis in his UFC debut. Jenkins got the better of the striking in that matchup and landed four takedowns for a clear decision win.
Although Jenkins looks to wrestle occasionally, I mostly consider him a striker. He comes from a boxing background, and you can see it in his game. He has good boxing technique and mixes in nasty calf kicks. He can also mix in nasty body kicks. He is pretty relentless with his pressure and volume. I think a good fighter comparison is Nathaniel Wood. Like Wood, you can see the boxing and calf kick combo in Jenkins’ striking.
Jenkins also looks to have very good cardio as well. I have seen this guy throw endless volume (e.g. against Costa) and not even slow down a little bit. I don’t think Jenkins has a ton of power, but he is an accumulation guy and can absolutely batter his opponents, especially when his calf kicks are mixed in.
He is also proven in the UFC and has struck competitively with good fighters like Jamal Emmers and Chepe Mariscal. He is landing 4.83 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 2.92 in return so his metrics check out.
There are some concerns I have with Jenkins though. I am a bit worried about his defensive grappling as he has lost two fights by submission on the regionals. I couldn’t find those two fights that he lost. However, those fights were over five years ago.
I have seen Jenkins’ defensive grappling in more recent fights since and it looks okay but we have seen some issues pop up here and there.
Shainis actually mounted Jenkins and obtained top position on a couple of occasions. Emmers also got a lot of top position on Jenkins. So I do have some concerns. He did at least defend 5/6 takedowns against Emmers, but his get ups didn’t look great. He also was taken down by Herbert Burns in his last matchup in round one and also struggled with his get ups. He was also taken down in round two vs Burns, couldn’t get up, and only escaped because Burns jumped for a leg lock like a moron. His get up issues are clearly there. Chepe Mariscal also had some success clinching Jenkins against the cage.
I think Jenkins will defend the wrestling against some guys and I do think his first layer tdd is decent. However, above-average grapplers will likely have success against him.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going to go with Santos because he has more paths to victory given his grappling upside. I do think Santos can land takedowns here and there, consolidate some top position for stretches, and maybe threaten with submissions. For that extra path to victory alone, I think it makes sense that he is the favorite here. I just do not like some of the defensive grappling that Jenkins has shown.
Santos very well may decide to brawl though. I definitely think he will for stretches so Jenkins should have some windows of opportunity here.
On the feet, I think this is going to be a war. I like the calf kicks of Jenkins a lot. Perhaps that can be an x factor. Santos does seem to check leg kicks though. I think both guys will land. At range, I think Jenkins may be a bit more technical. However, Santos makes fights dirty and I think that type of style can allow him to have striking success too. I just think both guys are going to land and rounds will be close. Either guy could get hurt too. So there is variance in this matchup.
I still have to go with Santos though because the grappling will always be available to him in his back pocket.
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On DraftKings, Santos is probably in that second tier of favorites who I am still willing to play, but probably won’t make my first cut of obvious options.
Mostly, it’s because Jenkins is a skilled fighter and shouldn’t get run over here. The fight itself is -165 to go the distance, and it could be competitive. That alone limits my interest in Santos.
With that said, he’s coming off a 99 point decision win, and had he beaten Murphy, he would have scored another 93 in a decision. Santos landed multiple takedowns in both fights so that would be the path.
Without grappling domination, I don’t see Santos getting there at 8.9k. There is a lot of finishing equity on this slate, both in the top tier and in the mid-range. Santos brawling and hoping to knock Jenkins out isn’t the path I would like from a fantasy standpoint.
I do think Santos can land multiple takedowns and potentially threaten on the mat, so he’s still in play, but it’s just not the easiest opponent to dominate in my opinion. I think it’s more realistic that Santos looks good and scores 90 points, rather than that he smashes and scores 120 in an early finish. Santos is +260 to win ITD here.
At 8.9k, Santos will fit best into my lineups when I’m playing more mid-range constructions and just cannot pay up to the 9k tier. I’m totally fine to mix him in as a secondary target, and he has a reasonably safe floor in a win. I just worry a little bit about his pure ceiling given the matchup, so Santos won’t be an outright priority for me.
Jenkins at 7.3k is probably my favorite combo of salary savings and talent. That said, Santos is a tough opponent so I’m still not sure it’s worth a big investment.
I can definitely see Jenkins putting together a competitive performance at home in Australia. I’m still not sure how much offense he’ll be able to produce, and it feels like his grappling upside will be limited here.
Jenkins is only +340 to win ITD which isn’t terrible, but not indicative of great finishing equity. 7.3k is quite cheap though so I don’t mind Jenkins as a more floor based salary saver who has some win equity.
For tournaments, I’m probably taking more chances on finishers priced above him when possible.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Santos by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Fight Odds: Borshchev -119, Nolan +104
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Borshchev 8.3k, Nolan 7.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a pretty fun fight here between Viacheslav Borshchev and Tom Nolan. This may turn out to be a banger.
So Borshchev comes from a kickboxing background where he had an 18-2 record.
Borshchev has looked good as a striker in the UFC as well. He lands 5.40 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.80 in return. Those metrics are skewed though as he was outlanded 62-2 in significant strikes against Chase Hooper which were generally strikes absorbed on the ground.
On the feet, Borshchev is solid. He has some good hands and kicks. He is just diverse on the feet and also has power, and has won by knockout in the UFC a couple of times. He was hurt in some recent fights against Hooper and Sadykhov though, so his durability is a bit of a concern. However, he can compete just fine on the feet in the UFC. He looked fine against Llontop in his last fight and his durability held up.
Borshchev’s weakness is his grappling. On the regionals, he was taken down and struggled at times. Furthermore, he was dominated on the mat by Marc Diakiese, Mike Davis, and Chase Hooper. He is just not a great defensive grappler and defends takedowns at 35 percent.
I do think Borshchev’s get ups are decent, especially early. I mean Borshchev working up is the reason that Diakiese had to land so many takedowns. Diakiese also attempted 18 takedowns in that fight which was absurd. I do think below-average grapplers in this division won’t be able to pull off what Diakiese did to Borshchev though as it is tough to attempt 18 takedowns in a fight and not gas out. Average and above-average grapplers will surely continue to expose Borechev on the mat though.
Borshchev will be taking on Tom Nolan. Nolan fought Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut and after having some success in the early striking exchanges, he got knocked out. He bounced back with two striking based wins against low competition. He knocked out Victor Martinez as well but he was hurt in that fight so his durability continues to be a concern. He then won a decision against Alex Reyes where he underperformed my expectations.
Nolan is now 8-1 professionally and fights out of Australia. He booked his ticket to the UFC by knocking out his Contender Series opponent (Bogdan Grad). Before that, Nolan basically dominated his competition in Eternal MMA which is a crappy Australian promotion which I don’t have much respect for.
Nolan is definitely unproven with no meaningful wins. However, I do like his style of fighting and I do think it can translate to wins in the UFC. He is super aggressive and long, and throws a nasty body kick out of the southpaw stance.
He kind of looks like Carlos Condit. Their fighting styles or appearance aren’t the same, but their stances / lengthy builds and the way they aggressively pursue their opponents on the feet are similar.
Anyway, Nolan is aggressive and just looks to throw everything at his opponent. He gives his opponents no room and will attack them with all limbs. His defense is definitely suspect though and he will likely be knocked out again given how aggressive and reckless he is. Still though, I think Nolan can win fights at this level with aggression and output alone.
Nolan will also look to land takedowns and pursue front chokes or land ground-and-pound. He doesn’t look like a great submission grappler to me, but he generally knows what he is doing on the mat and is a brown belt in BJJ.
Nolan doesn’t look like a great takedown artist though. He has not even landed a takedown in the UFC. Furthermore, I do question his defensive wrestling a bit as I have seen him taken down and controlled on the regional scene. My guess is good wrestlers will have success against him.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this will probably be a striking fight. Nolan does have potential grappling upside just because Borshchev is so bad on the mat. However, I don’t really trust that outcome as Nolan doesn’t seem to be a trustworthy pursuer of takedowns. He doesn’t look like the most effective takedown artist either.
On the feet, I mildly lean Borshchev. I just think he is more experienced and proven as a striker. Borshchev mixes it up a little more, is probably a little faster, and seems to land more steady offense. I also think Borshchev is better defensively. He very well may hurt Nolan as Nolan has been knocked out and hurt in his short UFC career and this is a big step up for Nolan. So I am going to go with Borshchev here.
I still think Nolan has some paths to victory though. He could probably compete on the feet and will have the Australian crowd on his side. So a close decision wouldn’t shock me. Furthermore, Borshchev has been hurt several times and I do think Nolan winning by knockout seems reasonable. Nolan could also maybe take advantage of Borshchev on the mat if he happens to end up on top. So I understand why this line is close.
I still think these guys are going to generally strike though, and I do think Borshchev is the more trustworthy striker so I will pick Borshchev to get it done.
—
On DraftKings, this fight will carry some risk but I do think there’s a reasonable chance it ends early.
Nolan has shown to be very aggressive, and typically his fights end quickly. Borshchev is a dangerous striker himself but has vulnerabilities in all areas. This fight is -325 to end inside the distance and only -115 to go Over 1.5 rounds.
Borshchev is priced at 8.3k and is my slightly preferred target. I just think he’s the cleaner striker and is obviously more experienced. Nolan has been getting hurt early in fights, and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Borshchev put him away.
The issue of course is that in an extended fight, Borshchev could bust. He just landed 96 significant strikes in his last win but as it came by decision, he only scored 68 DK points. That won’t be enough.
Borshchev is +120 to win ITD here which is a pretty decent line for the price. It’s certainly a boom or bust target but one with reasonable upside based on the pacing, and the hittability of Nolan. I’m willing to target Borshchev moderately or be a bit overweight to the field on him.
Nolan is an intriguing target as well at 7.9k. I’ve been quite high on him throughout his early UFC career but he’s disappointed more often than not.
I don’t love him in this matchup either and am not picking him to win. However, I have two major concerns with Borshchev. One is that he sucks defensively as a grappler, and the second is that he’s been dropped by both Sadykhov and Hooper. The latter isn’t very forgivable.
So despite the technical gaps, Nolan being aggressive could just lead to an early knockdown. And he has the tools to potentially finish Borshchev off on the mat if he gets on top.
If I had any confidence that Nolan would pursue a wrestling attack, I’d favor him outright here. However, he’s attempted a total of zero takedowns in his last four fights.
Despite this fight rating out well, I think it goes overlooked in what’s shaping out to be a stacked mid-range. The public will prioritize both the main and co-main, and probably the HW fight as well. Also, it’s tough to be fully confident in an early finish on either side.
So I don’t think Nolan will be too popular at 7.9k, and he may also carry leverage against a more popular Borshchev. While Borshchev has the easier path to a ceiling, Nolan may randomly decide to wrestle or purely find a stoppage due to aggression. He’s +160 to win ITD which is quite strong.
I’m not going out of my way to prioritize Nolan but I’d like him a decent amount if he projects to be much lower owned than Borshchev. Otherwise, he’s a solid secondary target with finishing upside that I wouldn’t mind being near the field or a bit overweight on.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Borshchev by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil
Fight Odds: Wang -503, Brasil +375
Odds to end ITD: +125
DraftKings Salaries: Wang 9.4k, Brasil 6.8k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am sure Wang Cong is eager to get back in the cage after suffering an embarrassing upset loss to Gabriella Fernandes a few months back.
I honestly thought Wang looked good in that fight until she was finished. She outlanded Fernandes 46-18 in significant strikes and was winning clean. She then got hurt on the feet and submitted because she was badly rocked. It wasn’t a great look, but I do think it was a bit random. Now Wang will get a chance to redeem herself this weekend against Bruna Brasil.
Wang is a bit of a blue chip prospect. Wang is 32 years old and 6-1 professionally. She comes from a deep boxing and kickboxing pedigree, and actually has a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko in 2015. Kickboxing is her base and it’s what she thrives at, and she has generally won her MMA fights by outstriking her opponents.
Her striking is good. She has a good jab and good low kicks and seems defensively sound despite her most recent loss. She throws in combination. She manages range well and can fight three rounds in her sleep. She didn’t look to have a ton of one punch power, but she did sleep Leonardo. Leonardo is terrible though with no durability. I generally think if Wang wins by knockout, it will more so come from accumulation or a skill discrepancy more than anything.
Wang did fight Wu Yanan, a former low tier UFC fighter early last year and dominated her. She just outstruck her for 15 minutes. Yanan isn’t good, but Wang absolutely dominated her and it was a good performance for the test at hand. I do think Wang is UFC level and will win striking fights in the UFC.
Overall, Wang still looks like a good prospect. She can strike for 15 minutes and is very technical as a kickboxer, and she looks to understand basic grappling techniques enough to keep fights standing. Good grapplers will probably have success against her but her defensive grappling looks okay at times.
I am looking forward to seeing her progress in the UFC. I will chalk up her most recent loss as random for now.
Wang will be taking on Bruna Brasil. Brasil is a Brazilian fighter who is 10-4-1 professionally. She is 31 years old. She comes from a kickboxing background and is a brown belt in BJJ. She is 2-2 in the UFC and most recently obtained a good win against Molly McCann which surprised some people as Brasil was a big underdog in that fight.
Brasil’s striking is okay. She has some decent kicks and a good body kick which she hurt McCann with several times. She can control range decently and mix in her kicks, and then throw punches when opponents enter range. She is okay and I consider her competent.
Brasil is just too low volume for my liking though. She only lands 2.94 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.49 in return. In three decisions, she has landed 56, 28, and 44 significant strikes which is just not enough volume. Loma outworked Brasil for a couple of rounds and I feel like high volume strikers can probably just outwork her.
Brasil’s grappling is also competent but not great. She was taken down at times by Molly McCann. She also surrendered three takedowns against Denise Gomes and Marnic Mann. She only defends takedowns at 50 percent. She can sort of defend takedowns and she can defend herself on the mat, but she can be taken down and controlled a bit.
Brasil lands 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes which is decent, and she can mix in takedowns against weak grapplers. She can sort of float in top position and isn’t bad. She can also take the back which she did against McCann. She also used her size to win round three against Loma Lookboonmee by clinching her against the cage. I still don’t consider Brasil great either and more so think she can only outgrapple weak grapplers.
Brasil is just decent. She is competent in all areas but lacks offense at times.
As far as this matchup goes, I have to go with Wang here because I like her striking volume much more.
On the feet, I just think Wang will throw more and will throw in combination. Brasil can probably be competitive at times and evade some strikes, and maybe land some kicks. However, I just don’t think Brasil will keep up with the striking volume of Wang. Brasil was outlanded at range against Shauna Bannon 51-39. I just can’t pick her to outland Wang.
Wang is still green and lacks experience though. Brasil is at least somewhat well-rounded. Perhaps Brasil can just test Wang somewhere because of that. Maybe Brasil can land a body kick, clinch Wang up, or end up in top position and get a decent position on the mat. It wouldn’t completely shock me. Wang is still very unproven in MMA.
Still though, Wang has a clear volume edge and may be able to hurt Brasil. I also think Wang could maybe end up in top position herself. So I will go with Wang here because of her extensive kickboxing background.
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On DraftKings, I lean closer to fading this fight outright than anything else.
Wang is super expensive at 9.4k, and I really don’t see the merit to prioritizing her above the other 9k options, other than possibly for the contrarian angle.
She did win by quick KO in her UFC debut, but that isn’t the most likely outcome here and that result still only yielded her 104 DK points. In this particular matchup, Wang is only +145 to win ITD in a fight that’s projected to last the full 15 minutes at -155.
The counter argument would be that Brasil has already been knocked out in the UFC. I am not a fan of Brasil myself and have targeted others against her. I wouldn’t be shocked if Wang hurt her.
I also think Wang will be very low owned in this top tier, so if you want a place to be unique, it’s one option to consider.
There’s just not much wrestling equity from Wang, and the most likely outcome is an extended fight. I’d rather put my money on places with more wrestling or finishing equity, so I lean toward having very little of Wang on this slate.
Brasil at 6.8k kind of feels like a trap. She may not be popular but I wouldn’t be surprised if she gained more ownership than expected given her betting line, largely based on her last win and Wang’s last loss.
And with a floor built in, it’s very reasonable to believe Brasil could fight a semi-competitive three rounds and score some points. Maybe she even has a wrestling advantage.
I just don’t love her game. She’s low volume and doesn’t like to engage much. Her defensive wrestling is weak. Wang isn’t going to absorb strikes at a high rate anyway so I think Brasil has a pretty low floor here even in an extended fight.
You’re largely hoping that Brasil can land some nice body shots and hurt Wang, and completely upset her. It’s far from impossible but not an outcome I want to bet on. I’d rather take chances on other dogs in this bottom tier, especially if they will be lower owned.
Brasil has some floor based merit but it’s not enough for me to attack her with any real investment this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wang by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Colby Thicknesse vs. Aleksandre Topuria
Fight Odds: Topuria -346, Thicknesse +275
Odds to end ITD: -325
DraftKings Salaries: Topuria 9.3k, Thicknesse 6.9k
Weight Class: 135
We have a special UFC debut as the brother of featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, Aleksandre Topuria will step into the Octagon for the first time this weekend against Colby Thicknesse.
Topuria is 5-1 professionally at age 29, and he’s earned three wins by TKO and two by submission.
From what I can tell, he looks to be a decent athlete with a well-rounded game, and honestly, he seems to fight similarly to his brother. Topuria looks to have fast hands with power, and he’s also chosen to wrestle in the majority of his fights where he’s a quality submission grappler as well.
My primary issue at this stage is that we just don’t have much tape on the guy though. All of his fights are ending quickly, and most are against mediocre or worse competition. He’s beaten fighters with records at the time of 0-3, 1-1, 7-18, 1-9 and 3-1.
In his only loss, Topuria had some grappling success early but got tired and hurt as the fight extended, and he was ultimately TKO in the third round. You could certainly look at that loss as a red flag, though it came in 2015..
What I also find to be pretty odd is that people who know him are speaking more highly of him than they likely should be. Both Ilia Topuria and Merab Dvalishvili have said that Aleksandre is better than them, which I obviously doubt, but I do question what those comments stem from.
Even a week ago, Merab was quoted saying “I think he’s an even better version than us. I’m not going to say he’s better than Ilia but he’s better than me.”
My guess is that in the gym, this Topuria brother probably looks like a force. In reality, he may be a force. I do think he has the skills to win fights.
From a pure fighter profile sense, it’s harder to cap that way. I would worry about him in extended fights. I would worry about him facing adversity. Against lower level competition, I’m pretty confident his well-rounded game and wrestling would be enough to win fights.
Topuria will be taking on Colby Thicknesse who is taking this fight on pretty short notice as Thicknesse was announced as a replacement on January 29th.
Thicknesse is 7-0 professionally at age 25, fighting out of the Australian regional scene. He’s earned two wins by TKO and three by submission. He looks like a primary grappler to me.
The issue again here is that there isn’t a ton of tape out there on him. And some of his recent wins have come against pretty poor competition.
Thicknesse has been able to go to his wrestling early and control fighters on the mat, where he is also a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He’s taken down his opponents pretty easily and finished them on the mat within a couple of minutes. I haven’t seen him tested defensively that much, which is an issue.
In one of his earlier decisions, Thicknesse was caught a few times on the feet, but hung tough and ended up winning the latter rounds with grappling. I like the fact that he’s gone the distance now three times and has won each decision. It’s good experience for young fighters to fight for three rounds.
As far as a prospect profile, I don’t really know what to make of Thicknesse. I highly doubt his wrestling is good enough to beat quality wrestlers in the bantamweight division. I would like to see more of his striking but he doesn’t seem like an incredible volume fighter or knockout artist.
I think the best hope for Thicknesse is that he’s tough. When he was getting hurt and dropped in that decision win I watched, he barely reacted. He just got back up and kept fighting, and looked pretty strong in the final two rounds.
The ability to push through some adversity is a valuable one, and tied into some grappling skills, I think Thicknesse could win some extended fights in the UFC.
As far as this matchup, clearly I want to gather more data on both fighters before I make any concrete claims.
I’m honestly not sure how good either man is, though it feels like Topuria is the better prospect. My main concern is what happens if Topuria cannot finish Thicknesse early. Topuria will probably be the better boxer, and I would guess he’s the better wrestler too, but it’s also possible Thicknesse could survive.
And if this fight hits round two, round three, I’m much less sure what to expect from Topuria. He could be put on defense with Thicknesse trying to wrestle more, and if he’s tired, he might just get TKOd or submitted late. I do think that’s a possible outcome.
Topuria showing heavy odds to win may be correct, but it also feels like he’s being a bit overhyped based on his last name.
My best guess is that he does find a way to hurt Thicknesse early, and/or proves he’s a superior BJJ fighter and can finish on the mat. I’m unsure if Thicknesse will be fully up to speed taking this one on short notice. I also think Thicknesse could prove better on the mat than we expect, and we could potentially see these red flags from Topuria pop up again if the fight extends past the halfway mark.
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On DraftKings, Topuria is priced up to 9.3k and I think he’s a pretty strong target for finishing equity.
Topuria is a huge -285 to win ITD, which is one of the best lines on this slate, so that’s clearly going to put him in play for tournaments. That, plus his name will surely make him a very popular target publicly.
I have no problems playing in the mid-range this week so if I cannot afford Topuria, I won’t be too bummed. Plus, there are other options in this top range like Sallkild who also have viability.
Still, Topuria has a lot of finishing equity, and it could come on the mat. An early finish would certainly put him in contention for the optimal lineup, so I think it makes sense to target him when salary is available.
There’s just a lot of unknowns with this fight, and I’m probably not looking to take a major stand. I highly doubt I’ll be overweight to the field but I’m also not actively looking to fade Topuria just based on his name.
When I’m paying up to the 9k range this week, Topuria is among my favorite options, though he’s far from a certainty.
Thicknesse at 6.9k is a potentially decent leverage target.
I seriously doubt he’s going to be owned much, especially coming in on short notice. It’s also a perceived tough matchup on paper.
But Topuria should be quite popular and if Thicknesse can pull off the upset, he’ll kill off a decent chunk of the field with him. I’m just not exactly sure how that upset would look.
I do really like his cardio and toughness though so an extended fight with some grappling is in play. And since we’ve already seen Topuria gassed and TKOd, maybe that outcome is viable as well.
I won’t be rostering Thicknesse much this week and he won’t rate out well with a +900 ITD line. But the unknowns in the matchup and the leverage against Topuria are intriguing enough to make him a viable contrarian/sprinkle option if you have a large enough portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Topuria by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Rongzhu vs. Kody Steele
Fight Odds: Steele -255, Rongzhu +211
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Steele 9.1k, Rongzhu 7.1k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am interested to see UFC debutant Kody Steele take on Rongzhu this weekend.
I say that because Steele looks like an okay prospect and has a fun fighting style. He grew up wrestling but doesn’t have a deep wrestling pedigree. He actually has a solid BJJ background and is a black belt in BJJ. He has won some decent tournaments in BJJ but nothing crazy. I do not consider him a blue chip grappling prospect even though you may hear that on other podcasts this week. He is a solid submission grappler though.
Steele is now 7-0 professionally in MMA and he booked his ticket on the Contender Series by knocking out his opponent in round two.
Although Steele comes from a grappling background, he is actually an okay pressure boxer. He is basically knocking out all of his opponents. He walks his opponents down from the get go and mixes in a lot of inside punching combinations. He has some power in his punches as well. He will also mix in punches to the body which I like, and he finished his opponent on the Contender Series to the body. He also has a good rear kick to the body.
I also think Steele has good cardio and I really like that he just pushes the pace on the feet and is generally the aggressor. He also seems very durable as well and I have never seen him hurt.
I think my main concern for Steele on the feet is just that he is raw and doesn’t have great defense. More seasoned strikers can probably hit him enough to test that durability. Still, I like his process on the feet. He is aggressive, has cardio, and has power.
Coming from a grappling background, Steele will also mix in double legs and other takedowns. He has a decent double leg that he will mix in with his pressure boxing. I honestly don’t think his takedowns and top control look that strong though. I was expecting more. He can take the back a bit though and given his background, I definitely think he can take advantage of weak grapplers. I do think he will struggle holding down decent grapplers in the UFC though.
I have seen Steele’s defensive grappling a little bit. He looked to be able to defend takedowns and work his way to his feet. I actually really liked his scrambling against Kilmer. He got taken down at times but scrambled into top position and his cardio is definitely there.
Steele’s competition has not been great but I do think he belongs in the low tiers of the UFC. I don’t think he will rise high through the ranks or anything, but I think he will be in some fun action fights. I like his pressure boxing and power on the inside and he has good pace. He is also a capable grappler with good cardio.
Steele will be taking on Rongzhu. Rongzhu is a Chinese fighter who is 25-6 professionally and is only 24 years old.
Rongzhu had an initial run in the UFC where he went 1-2 in the UFC. He was outstruck pretty badly against Kazula Vargas and Ignacio Bahamondes and lost to both of them. He had one win against Brandon Jenkins who is terrible. Rongzhu didn’t look great in his initial run and his striking looked poor. However, he was very young and just looked underdeveloped.
Rongzhu then had some regional fights and worked his way back to the UFC through the Road to UFC tournament. He won all of his Road to UFC fights and won the tournament to earn his way back to the UFC. He lost his first fight back in the UFC to Chris Padilla where he lost via doctor stoppage after his eye was shut from an elbow.
I do think Rongzhu looks a bit improved from his initial UFC run. His striking looks a little better now. He can wing some punches in close range and has some decent leg / calf kicks as well. He also looks to have a little power and did knock out one of his Road to UFC opponents. He is okay on the feet.
I still just worry about him and he has never beaten a good fighter. The Padilla fight was concerning. I don’t even consider Padilla a good striker and Padilla was landing clean on Rongzhu. I just worry about Rongzhu’s defensive striking and he is defending strikes at a poor 44 percent.
As a grappler, Rongzhu looks okay defensively. He defends takedowns at 85 percent. He can sort of stop takedowns and scramble to his feet. He can mix in takedowns himself at times but I don’t think his actual offensive wrestling is all that great either. I doubt he can outgrapple any decent grapplers.
I am just not particularly high on Rongzhu. His best win is Brandon Jenkins. He basically looks like a guy who can be in some action fights on the feet and has a mild power threat. I doubt he can outgrapple any decent UFC lightweight and his striking defense is poor. I think his time is limited in the UFC.
As far as this matchup goes, I am leaning Steele a bit. On the feet, I think both guys have power and are a bit raw defensively, so either guy could probably hurt the other. However, I do like Steele’s pressure more. I also think Steele is a more durable fighter with better cardio. I just think Steele will be a little more consistent and processed on the feet. You could argue that this is one of the more dangerous strikers Steele has fought though, simply because Steele’s competition has not been threatening. So maybe Rongzhu has striking success, but I think most of it would have to come early.
I also think Steele is a better grappler, at least on paper. I don’t think either guy will have an easy time taking and holding down the other. Again though, I think Steele has better cardio and is more likely to have success on the mat simply because of his credentials.
I generally think these guys will strike though and the man landing more power shots will likely win this fight. I lean Steele landing more power shots just because of his pace and consistency. I think Steele hits harder too and is more durable.
I just think this is sneakily a difficult matchup for Rongzhu. I doubt he can outgrapple Steele. That would be surprising. So he is going to have to outstrike Steele by knocking Steele out or winning over the duration which is probably going to be difficult because Steele seems durable and has good cardio. Maybe I am overrating the striking of Steele. However, I think Steele is going to win this fight with his power shots on the feet.
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On DraftKings, I have some interest in this fight though I don’t feel exceptionally confident.
Steele looks like a decent prospect but I wouldn’t call him a great one. Like Tim, I’d say I was underwhelmed with his grappling for MMA based on his pedigree. He has some strong grappling wins but his wrestling doesn’t look phenomenal to me, so I worry about that path being more limited than I hoped.
Otherwise, Steele can bang it out but I doubt he easily gets by good competition with that style. Rongzhu is quite limited though and probably just needs to hurt Steele to win.
Steele is priced at 9.1k and he is still viable. He has multiple paths to score. He could land multiple takedowns and if he gets on top, he could find a sub. He could also score a knockdown.
Steele is -110 to win ITD which is a pretty decent mark, and I’d still be willing to consider him for upside purposes. He’s not going to score a ton of points per minute and I don’t necessarily think he has the cleanest path to a finish, but Rongzhu is fairly low level and Steele is just a physical kid who will come forward.
At 9.1k, it would be totally fine to prioritize some other options who are priced above him, and I don’t consider Steele a standout. But he does have finishing equity, coupled with grappling equity, so I don’t mind him as a secondary pay-up target.
Rongzhu at 7.1k could potentially be a sneaky underdog target as I don’t expect the public to have much interest.
Often we see DWCS debutants come in overvalued, and Rongzhu has a bit more experience at this level than Steele does. Still, it’s not a great matchup. I don’t see him outgrappling Steele so we’d mostly be hoping Steele gets hurt, slows down and looks like a bust.
It’s not a crazy outcome but not one I’m particularly interested to bet on. Rongzhu is +305 to win ITD which is OK.
Mostly, this would just be a semi-contrarian or leverage target who also saves you salary. There are many other dogs I would rather play personally, but depending on the size of your portfolio, you could consider a sprinkle of Rongzhu.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Steele by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Jonathan Micallef vs. Kevin Jousset
Fight Odds: Jousset -233, Micallef +195
Odds to end ITD: +100
DraftKings Salaries: Jousset 9k, Micallef 7.2k
Weight Class: 170
Another newcomer to the welterweight division, Australia’s Jonathan Micallef will take on Kevin Jousset this weekend.
Micallef is 7-1 professionally at age 25, earning two wins by TKO and three by submission. He comes from the regional promotion HEX but earned his contract with a win on the Contender Series last October.
Micallef isn’t your traditional quick finisher, despite having some of those wins on his record, he’s also gone the five-round distance on one occasion, and he made it into round four on a second occasion. Unfortunately, HEX is known for not airing their fights and so despite the 7-1 pro record, we have very little tape to go off of.
I did see the highlights of his lone loss, which came by TKO in round four. Micallef had some wrestling success in that fight but was getting hurt on a few occasions before the ref had to step in.
In general, Micallef looks ok. He likes to fight southpaw and he looks like a pretty physical dude. He’s pretty flexible and can threaten with his kicks from the outside. I don’t consider him a spectacular striker though and only earning two TKOs in eight regional fights isn’t particularly impressive. He has multiple head kick KOs though including one from his amateur days.
On the Contender Series, Micallef clinched pretty quickly and tossed his opponent down, but wasn’t able to keep him down. In a scramble shortly thereafter, his opponent had Micallef in a threatening front choke, but Micallef was able to reverse the position and end up in mount, where he ultimately was swept. From there, he locked up a triangle choke to secure the win.
I don’t know. It’s really hard to make a clear argument for or against a fighter like this with limited tape. I need to see more and I’d like more data.
My guess is that Micallef isn’t anything special though. I like his physicality. I like that he’s gone the distance and his cardio seems strong. He looks at least functional in all areas of the game but I don’t think there’s anywhere where he can really separate himself at the UFC level. We’ll see.
Micallef will be taking on Kevin Jousset who is coming off a super disappointing performance at home in France against Bryan Battle, where he was TKOd in the second round.
Jousset previously beat Kiefer Crosbie by submission in his debut last September, and then solidly beat Song Kenan by decision in December.
Jousset profiles as a mid-level distance striker, who can compete in rounds against an average class of opponent, and maybe find some damage along the way.
He’s technically sufficient offensively, but his overall style does make me nervous. His stance is a bit rigid, and he doesn’t keep his hands up well enough for my liking. He did not like the pressure of Battle and couldn’t really return fire or hold up in a war that Battle was offering.
But again he’s capable offensively, and he throws with some power in his hands and legs. He doesn’t really fight aggressively and hunt for the finish, so he’ll look to maintain that kicking range and force his opponents to come inside.
In that, he can damage them, but I wouldn’t label him an elite knockout threat. Only one of his last eight wins have actually ended by knockout, and that came from ground-and-pound, so it should tell you his ceiling as a pure striker.
Defensively, his stance makes him susceptible to taking damage against pressure fighters, and I’ve seen him mildly hurt on the regionals and again versus Battle. Opponents who throw volume will contend with him just fine too.
I should note that in his first two UFC fights, Jousset did look pretty good. In the win against Song, Joussett landed 134 sig. strikes to Song’s 62, which is a pacing I respect. Jousset also landed 41 leg kicks in that fight which is a great tool to have.
If he can continue to maintain distance, Jousset can be effective. It’s just that Song is a notoriously poor volume fighter who’s reliant on one big shot, so that’s honestly a near perfect opponent to put together a good game plan against.
Jousset actually comes from a grappling background too where he’s a black belt in Judo, though it hasn’t played a major role in his recent fights. His wrestling looks pretty suspect to me, and he’s only attempted five takedowns in 28 minutes of cage time, landing two of them for two minutes of control.
I’ve seen him land a couple of takedowns on the regional scene and he’s not horrible, but he’s not an elite wrestling presence either.
He hasn’t really been tested defensively, but I wouldn’t expect Jousset to be great on the ground. He can probably defend weak opponents just fine but good wrestlers and grapplers should have advantages over him.
This is a pretty tough matchup to gauge considering the unknowns with Micallef, and the recent performance of Jousset.
I just don’t think we can compare a fighter like Micallef to Bryan Battle, who was able to land nearly 100 sig. strikes on Jousset in less than 10 minutes. Micallef surely cannot keep up that kind of pace and pressure, and Jousset should be able to find his range more comfortably here.
I do think the physicality and kicking game of Micallef could be enough to give Jousset some trouble, but I’d ultimately favor the experience and striking of Jousset over three rounds. Both men seem to have decent enough cardio where I would favor the fight to extend and probably last the full three rounds.
My guess is that Micallef is probably more likely of the two to pursue takedowns, but I’m not confident he can achieve anything on the mat. He doesn’t look like a great submission grappler to me, so even with 1-2 takedowns landed, I doubt he can control Jousset for long stretches of time. Conversely, Jousset just isn’t wrestling often enough to project much success there.
At home in Australia, with Jousset coming off a TKO loss, anything is possible for Micallef and I wouldn’t be surprised if he fought competitively here. I just don’t see enough stand out skills to pick him to win over a more experienced and well-rounded Jousset.
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On DraftKings, I don’t think I will be investing too much into this matchup, though it’s not one to clearly write off either.
Jousset is priced up to 9k, and I am far from certain he can easily finish Micallef. The fight itself is lined -130 to go the distance, and Jousset is +145 to win ITD which isn’t a horrible mark.
Micallef can be hurt but Jousset isn’t an elite knockout artist, nor submission grappler, and he won’t be super aggressive in exchanges. In an extended fight, Jousset will have a more questionable ceiling than I’d like for this price.
I do hesitate a little bit as he last scored 96 points in a decision win, but that came with 134 sig. strikes, one takedown, and other extracurriculars. That’s likely more offense than I could project him for in this matchup.
Still, if Jousset can land 60+ significant strikes and score a mid-round TKO, we could be looking at a 100+ point score which would put him in optimal contention. Without the TKO though, I don’t think his ceiling is enough to stand out.
Jousset shouldn’t be very popular and he may even be full-on contrarian coming off the loss, at 9k, in a strong upper range. If you’re looking to take a risk on a fighter with low ownership, this is at least one spot to consider. But to me it’s not a stand out fantasy spot and I would feel uncomfortable with targeting him as anything more than a mix-in.
Micallef at 7.2k has reasonable upside in a win.
I don’t think he’s going to land lots of volume or win by TKO at a high rate, but I guess he has wrestling equity, and submission equity. He’s only +550 to win ITD which is a really poor rate and again, he wasn’t a great finisher even on the regional scene.
We’re likely getting low public ownership here too though, and sometimes, coming off an ugly loss is a devastating blow for a fighter. Maybe Jousset’s head isn’t in the right place and Micallef can capitalize on fighting in front of his home crowd.
That’s only a narrative though and not one I’m excited enough to invest in. There are other cheap underdogs who I think have easier matchups and more clearer paths to a ceiling, so I’m going to prioritize them.
If you want an overlooked underdog then maybe Micallef can fit in as a low-end secondary/savings option, but I don’t feel confident enough in his skills or the matchup to make any sizable investment.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jousset by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Quillan Salkilld vs. Anshul Jubli
Fight Odds: Salkilld -660, Jubli +465
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Salkilld 9.6k, Jubli 6.6k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Quillan Salkilld is an Aussie national and was the former Eternal MMA 155 lb. champion before earning a contract on the Contender Series this past season. He’ll be making his pro debut on Saturday – he’s 7-1 as a pro. Anshul Jubli is one of the first Indian nationals on the roster who took a different path to the UFC via the Road to UFC – he’s 1-1 in the promotion and 7-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
Salkilld’s a long guy at 155, standing 6’ tall with a 75” reach.
I don’t believe he comes from any conventional striking background but has a more muay thai/kickboxing-esque type of style. He particularly excels with his lead hook, long straight right and additional body work with both punches/kicks/knees. His work rate has also been consistent throughout his shorter pro career.
I wouldn’t classify him as a big pure hitter with only one distance based KO, but he has attritional elements to his striking that can break guys down or outwork them over the course of fights.
He flows generally well where the loose nature to his game is a pro and con.
He’s not the fastest guy in the world and has some defensive liabilities, as he can be susceptible to straighter shots when effectively cut off. But the kid looks like he’s got a decent chin in the sample we have right now.
Overall, Salkilld’s a decent striker but a guy I still think is working into using his longer frame.
Jubli has a longer frame at 155 and stands a bit rigid, but has made it largely work for him.
We didn’t see much striking from him in his regional Dubai fights, but we saw a lot more in his Road to UFC fight where he was outlanded by three significant strikes 97-100. Jubli primarily played the aggressor and landed the better shots through the first 10 minutes, ultimately winning him that decision.
I like what I’ve seen from him mechanically as he does use his tools well, mixes it up, has some pop and will throw in volume combinations.
He tends to land pretty clean in the earlier parts of combinations, but the problem is, he often misses on the latter and can overcommit. As a result, he got consistently countered when leaving the pocket throughout the bulk of the fight, primarily with left hooks and body shots. But he did a lot of good bodywork of his own.
We did see him slow down in the 3rd round, but he also threw 270 strikes so it’s a bit more understandable.
We saw a similar thing in his fight with Breeden where he won the first two rounds and buckled Breeden a few times, but Breeden came on strong in round three and Jubli just kind of folded, this time getting KO’d.
Overall, I think it would benefit Jubli to slow down a tad and pick his shots a bit better because he’s got some sharp striking to where he doesn’t need to get into bigger pocket exchanges in my opinion. I’m skeptical about his cardio and toughness now as well.
How it plays out: Both guys are taller lightweights, but Salkilld will realize a 6” reach advantage here. Both are also higher volume strikers that mix up their attacks, but aren’t gigantic hitters and have defensive liabilities. So, they’re pretty well matched. I think Jubli’s got the cleaner technique as a more conventional kickboxer, while at range at least, but I also think some of the offline shots of Salkilld and clinching techniques will give some issues to Jubli – coupled with me thinking that Salkilld might have a bit more dog in him. But exchange to exchange, it’s probably competitive.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Salkilld’s first martial art was jiu-jitsu where despite only being 25 years old, he got his black belt back in 2023.
He’s not a particularly strong open mat wrestler but excels against the fence in either dropping for doubles or utilizing wrestle-rides to drag guys down and slip to the back.
I’d say that’s the part of Salkilld’s game I like the most as he floats well transitionally to positions. Additionally, when on top, he’ll throw really good GNP from the half guard and will also control wrists if guys try to go to turtle.
Four of his five finish wins have come on the ground as well – three subs and one TKO – his two decision wins consisted of wrestling success as well.
His defensive wrestling still needs some work but he’s also a guy that isn’t going to accept bottom positions. He’s constantly shrimping, framing, attacking, moving and scrambling so he hasn’t been an easy guy to hold down – he reminds me a little bit of UFC flyweight Brandon Royval in that capacity.
Overall, I don’t think Salkilld is a super high level grappler but I generally like his jiu-jitsu and how he uses his striking/frame/body type in his grappling.
Despite the longer frame of Jubli, the bulk of his career successes have come on the ground.
He pursues TDs early and often, securing primarily from the body lock with trips.
When on top, he’s been able to rack up extensive amounts of ground control time and will look to pass into dominant positions.
However, he’s prioritized attacking arms at times and has lost multiple dominant positions despite eventually getting them back – to his credit he will maintain top positions.
So, he is good at advancing positions, but he seems green from an offensive submission perspective as he’s been in finishing positions in multiple fights, but has struggled to secure them outside of one arm triangle.
Defensively, he hasn’t been wrestled much outside of his fight with Kim where Kim went 4/10 on TDs. But Jubli showed good hips and butterflies to get back to his feet immediately on all occasions. He’s also swept/scrambled back to top positions when he was taken down regionally.
So, we still don’t really have a sample of what he looks like extensively flattened.
Overall, he’s a capable wrestler that’s shown he can win fights on the ground and not get controlled to date but it’s also under the context of fighting guys with limited ground games.
How it plays out: I like Salkilld on the ground here. While Jubli has had wrestling/control success on many of his opponents and can land TDs on Salkilld, I don’t think he’s keeping him there. Salkilld will be a real guard and reversal to top threat. Additionally, with how much Salkilld works on the ground, it will tire Jubli out. Salkilld can take Jubli down as well. I see pretty distinct levels in the jiu-jitsu realm here.
We got a bit of a lower level fight between two guys still getting their feet wet in their pro careers. I actually don’t hate Jubli as much as most people do and I can see him finding some success in this fight – Salkilld isn’t a world beater in my opinion. But in the matchup, I like Salkilld’s length, grit and cardio more (despite slowing on CS) and he’s the far superior submission grappler. I see the early going being competitive but Salkilld getting to Jubli as the fight goes on, finding positions and securing a submission.
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On DraftKings, Salkilld is actually the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k.
It’s funny how MMA works because the last time Jubli fought, he was one of the most expensive guys on the board at 9.3k, and we were targeting the underdog Breeden in that spot. Now Jubli is priced down to 6.6k.
I don’t think Salkilld is deserving of a betting line this week. I see the striking as potentially quite competitive, and Jubli isn’t a disaster on the mat. It does feel likely that the persistent nature of Salkilld’s game will eventually get to Jubli, but he’s not a major physical or finishing threat and it’s possible this is just a competitive fight for three rounds.
However, Salkilld has shown fantasy upside in his fighting style, and we don’t have to look further than his DWCS win, where he landed nine takedowns on 22 attempts. In that decision win, Salkilld would have scored 135+ on DraftKings.
He’s pretty consistent to shoot takedowns, and that’s what I would again expect from him against Jubli. While I would prefer a more dominant threat on the mat, if Jubli can work his way back up to his feet, it will simply allow Salkilld more opportunities to rack up takedowns.
So I do think it’s realistic for Salkilld to win an extended fight, land another 5+ takedowns, with 5+ minutes of control, and 80-100 significant strikes. Maybe we don’t see a 135+ score, but 100 points is very possible and clearly there is upside for more. Salkilld is also -140 to win ITD, so a mid-round finish could potentially lead to a smash result.
The difficulty is obviously in the pricing, as 9.6k is expensive and there are plenty of strong options below. I quite like attacking the mid-range this week and so there may be many situations where I can’t pay up anything close to 9.6k. Therefore, I don’t consider Salkilld a must.
I also don’t consider Salkilld a must in the sense that this fight may look far more competitive than the betting line suggests. Targeting a fighter like Topuria for early finishing equity instead of Salkilld is on the table as well.
However, I do like Salkilld’s style to score points on DraftKings, and if he can replicate his DWCS win, 9.6k won’t feel expensive. If I can afford to pay up this far, I will consider Salkilld for that reason. He has among the best wrestling equity on the slate which equates to one of the best ceilings, and though I’m not super confident he can reach it, this is a decent spot and I’m willing to target him mildly-moderately when the salary is available.
Jubli at 6.6k isn’t a fighter who’s heavily on my radar, but I don’t think he’s out of play either.
The issue with Salkilld is just that he’s not a real physical presence, and I’ve seen him get taken down a bunch of times. I’ve seen him give up his back. His one loss came by RNC. He could get hurt at times.
Jubli throws enough volume to stay competitive with Salkilld at distance, and he might be able to take him down too. I don’t think he would hold Salkilld down for long periods of time but I’m not ruling out a competitive decision here.
It’s just a matter of prioritization and in that sense, I don’t like Jubli. There are many other dogs on this slate I would rather target, and so with a limited number of lineups, I probably won’t get to Jubli often or at all. He also rates out very poorly as a huge dog with a +750 ITD line.
If you have a large portfolio to play with, I don’t mind a small sprinkle of Jubli as he could beat out the bottom portion of the 7k range, but otherwise he’s a very low-end target with minimal win equity on paper.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Salkilld by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
HyunSung Park vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Fight Odds: Park -233, Tumendemberel +195
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Park 8.7k, Tumendemberel 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
If you’re not familiar with the name yet, let me introduce you to Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, who will be returning to the cage on Saturday against HyunSung Park.
Tumendemberel is 8-1 professionally at age 26, and despite being nicknamed “Art of Knockout”, he holds only two wins by TKO and five by submission.
Tumendemberel fights out of Mongolia, where he is a nomadic herder, and the majority of his fights have come from that regional scene which if I’m being honest, is about as low-level as it gets.
With that said, Tumendemberel fights at an insane pace. He is 10/10 aggressive to a fault, but he knows nothing else.
He will rush forward swinging wild, looping power shots and he’s been able to hurt several opponents immediately with that style. He is extremely dangerous in that sense alone.
However, he’s the type where he will swing and miss so badly he will almost knock himself over, so the technique is not fully there. It’s actually not there at all. He doesn’t really move his head and he is there to be countered. He will almost certainly be knocked out at some point.
Tumendemberel also has a background in Judo and Sambo, and that translates into a decent submission game.
By decent, I mean, he will jump on guillotine chokes. He will teleport himself onto the back of his opponent in scrambles, and he’ll chase random shit like kneebars. Again, he’s dangerous.
His pure wrestling is OK. He can and will attempt a lot of takedowns, but I really hate his control. I’ve seen him fall off the back on several occasions and I really think he’s reliant on these big moments, rather than any extended success.
To make matters worse, his takedown defense is non-existent. Even on the Mongolian regional scene, he would get taken down by most opponents.
He fought on Road to UFC and was taken down six times by a Muay Thai guy who cannot grapple either. Several of them came in round three when Tumendemberel was tired.
That’s another issue – good luck sustaining your cardio with that style. He actually did better than I thought and at the start of each round, he would throw a bunch of hail marys. But his defense just gets worse, he can’t defend takedowns and he gets stuck off his back.
I am certain Tumendemberel will get exposed at the UFC level. His defense is exceptionally bad and his level of competition has been exceptionally bad as well.
I do also think he can win fights via quick finishes. He can hurt people, and he can submit them if they’re not careful. He’s not a terrible athlete and has power.
I just cannot imagine him winning decisions with any consistency and I’m certain good wrestlers will beat him. He’ll honestly probably get finished by good opponents because he’ll get tired and won’t really know how to defend himself.
In his UFC debut, Tumendemberel almost picked up a decision against Carlos Hernandez though I thought Hernandez was clearly deserving of the nod.
Hernandez controlled the vast majority of minutes, outlanding Tumendemberel 40-24 over three rounds, as well as outwrestling him four takedowns to zero.
However, Hernandez was throwing a lot of jabs and basic strikes, while Tumendemberel was still hunting for the KO. He caught Hernandez briefly at the end of the first round which was enough to potentially swing that round. Some thought he also won the third round despite being outstruck 21 to 12.
I did think Tumendemberel carried his cardio a little better in that fight than I expected, and he also defended takedowns better than I expected, only giving up four on 14 attempts. But it really didn’t matter because his lack of process still kills his game.
He’ll be reliant on big moments, which I think can come, but he’ll struggle in most other aspects.
Tumendemberel will now take on HyunSung Park, who is still undefeated at 9-0 professionally, and won the Road to UFC title in his UFC debut against SeungGuk Choi.
More recently, Park finished Shannon Ross with some nice body shots in the second round.
Despite holding the undefeated record, it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for Park. In his Road to UFC semifinal, he was dropped early in the contest and had to comeback and secure a RNC late in the first round. Additionally, he was dropped in the Road to UFC finals before coming back to win by RNC in round three.
The good news is that he is tough enough to take a couple of shots, face some adversity, and continue to fight. That’s a very positive trait to have. The bad news is that he’s getting dropped by mediocre opponents, and I don’t have the highest hopes for him moving forward.
I think Park has pretty fast hands, and his boxing is fine, but he kind of lunges into strikes and he’s not very high volume. He’s averaging 4.15 sig. strikes landed per minute with a high of 50 which came in two rounds against Ross. He only landed 38 sig. strikes in his previous decision.
I’m just not sold Park is going to run away with striking rounds. He’ll land some damage here and there, but also take some. He’ll likely be competitive in volume. It’s worth noting that his last win against Ross is pretty meaningless as Ross is terrible and has been knocked down seven times in his last four fights..
I do think Park is a pretty solid grappler. Especially in his ability to take the back and hunt for chokes, that’s where I think Park will be best.
He is not necessarily a volume wrestler though, so that’s another concern. He has not landed more than one takedown in any of his past four fights. He’s only landing them at 27% so he’s attempting at an OK rate, but not having tremendous success.
I worry that his wins will mostly come against weak competition, which he’s mostly been facing, and against any solid wrestler he will get shut down.
Overall, Park is fine. I like his cardio and toughness and he seems to be competent, especially when he has a grappling advantage. I don’t think he’s an elite prospect and a loss is probably coming soon.
As far as this matchup, obviously I have mixed feelings.
Park is a more processed fighter than Tumendemberel, and I trust him more as a wrestler and submission grappler. I do think he can take Tumendemberel down and potentially threaten for a choke.
However, I’m concerned that Park is not a volume wrestler, so if Tumendemberel survives a couple of exchanges, will Park just abandon his wrestling? Does he have the cardio to attempt 10+ takedowns if needed?
On the feet, this could definitely be sketchy. Watching Park get dropped multiple times already definitely makes me think Tumendemberel could catch him. It would still likely come early as that’s where Tumendemberel shines and is most dangerous.
If Park can survive some initial exchanges, he’s probably the better striker minute to minute. I’m just not sure he will run away with rounds and it could open the door to a similar situation as last time where Park is winning minutes but one big flurry changes the judges’ view.
I’m going to pick Park to win, primarily because of his grappling advantage. I’m not certain he will finish Tumendemberel though. I still think Tumendemberel’s best chance to win will be a quick KO, which I think is a possible outcome, but not one I’ll ever be super confident in.
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On DraftKings, I said this prior to Tumendemberel’s last fight and I will say it again – he’s just the type of fighter and type of underdog I will make some investment in every time he competes because a lot of his win equity is tied into an early finish.
He’s priced at 7.5k this week and likely competes for the optimal in a win. He is only +425 to win ITD, but that’s largely due to him being the dog and Park being undefeated. We’ve already seen Park dropped twice.
Am I confident in or excited to play Tumendemberel? No. But at this kind of price tag, and given his early aggressive style, he has clear fantasy upside and feels like a pretty strong secondary target who I’d like to be near the field on.
Park is priced at 8.7k and is a decent target.
I was pretty high on Hernandez against Tumendemberel but even with four takedowns, he didn’t put up a great score. I am definitely worried that Park won’t wrestle urgently, and 1-2 takedowns may not be enough to win ITD.
If this fight extends, I cannot be confident Park will produce enough offense to clearly end up optimal at 8.7k. And he is only +110 to win ITD with the fight lined at -200 to go over 2.5 rounds. So with that said, Park is not a must.
However, in theory, targeting Tumendemberel’s opponents each time out also makes sense. His lack of defense will open up opportunities, and Park has wrestling/grappling/finishing equity. We may be more reliant on a finish here from Park than I’d like but it’s still a clear path for him to win and score.
So at 8.7k, Park is a good tournament target who has a strong ceiling, but potentially questionable floor. I’m a little nervous to hammer him on this slate but I wouldn’t mind being near the field or a bit overweight to invest in the matchup moderately as a whole.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Park by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-Low)