UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady (3/22/25)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady
Fight Odds: Brady -150, Edwards +130
Odds to end ITD: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Edwards 8.6k, Brady 7.6k
Weight Class: 170
Back at home in London, England, the former welterweight champion Leon Edwards is ready to set the record straight when he faces Sean Brady in a potential top contender matchup this weekend.
The last time we saw Edwards was in Manchester, England in July, where he lost his title to the current champ Belal Muhammad.
If you’ve been following my analysis for any length of time, you’ll know that this came as no surprise. In fact, it’s nothing short of a miracle that Edwards was able to put himself in this position in the first place.
He’d won 12 fights in a row with the lone exception of his No Contest that also came against Muhammad in 2021, a streak that was one of the most impressive runs in the sport and highlighted by a late KO over Kamaru Usman in 2022 that earned him the belt.
However, Edwards’ metrics tell an entirely different story. Not only is Edwards one of the worst producers of offense in the UFC from a championship standpoint, but he’s one of the worst producers of offense in the UFC in general.
In a very large sample, Edwards only lands 2.68 significant strikes per minute, and he only lands 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes. Without a devastating knockout, it is simply very difficult to win rounds with any consistency by producing that amount of offense.
It’s been obvious for a long time that Edwards doesn’t deal well with pressure, and any opponent who can push him has a great chance to get their hand raised. Many find themselves sucked into his low-volume affair but Muhammad did not, and pressured Edwards for the entirety of 25 minutes, outlanding him 68 to 47 and taking him down an additional nine times that led to another 120+ non-significant strikes.
Edwards cited the time of day as the primary reason for his loss, and to be fair, it would absolutely suck fighting in the middle of the night. I don’t blame any fighter for feeling “off” in a situation like that.
However, let’s just look at the numbers. Edwards landed 47 sig. strikes and two takedowns against Muhammad. But in his fight prior against Covington, he only landed 57 sig. strikes and two takedowns as well. Against Usman in 2022, Edwards landed 55 sig. strikes and one takedown.
The guy just does not produce offense consistently, and never has. He’s a sharpshooter at distance, and a decent control wrestler. But he needs to be in control and he needs to work in his range to win.
Now he’ll face Sean Brady, a top contender in the division who is known for pacing, and is coming off a pretty strong win over another tough out in Gilbert Burns last September.
In that win, Brady was able to land 130 sig. strikes and seven takedowns in five rounds, which was probably the most impressive performance of his career to date.
I’ve been high on Brady at times, but not always. He showed a lot of promise even in his UFC debut, landing 119 sig. strikes and a couple of takedowns in two rounds.
And as a solid wrestler and BJJ black belt, Brady’s well-rounded nature really gives him multiple paths to victories against most of the division. Since then, we’ve seen him land 4, 5, 5 and 7 takedowns in a handful of bouts, and he averages 3.49 takedowns landed per 15 minutes in total, along with 4.09 sig. strikes per minute.
As Brady started to climb the ranks, he faced a couple of stiff tests in Michael Chiesa and Belal Muhammad, which really changed my perception of his game. I don’t consider Chiesa a difficult fighter, and I thought Brady would have an easy time there. He looked fine early, but got a little hurt, and gassed out badly in the final round.
Against Muhammad, he was broken and finished by round two, though Muhammad forced a hellacious boxing pace.
At that point, it’s just difficult for me to watch Brady and say for sure that he can fight at a hard pace for 25 minutes. In fact, it seems likely he cannot do it with consistency, and that’s still what makes me the most nervous here.
However Brady took some time off after the Muhammad loss, won a fight over Gastelum, and then put the pace on Burns last September. Now we’re left with the final image of Brady landing three takedowns and 31 sig. strikes in round five, which hopefully shows an improved gas tank and invaluable experience.
I still don’t think this is an easy fight for Brady. I consider Muhammad to be a better fighter than him outright. Muhammad is bigger, and a better wrestler, and he fights more intelligently than Brady.
Brady is kind of small. He is only 5’10” and will be four inches shorter than Edwards with a couple fewer inches of reach. We’ve also seen Brady slow down multiple times, where Edwards really never has.
I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Brady can duplicate the performance of Muhammad, and in fact my expectation is that he cannot.
But can he do more on offense than Edwards will? That’s a better question to ask.
Because there’s nothing Edwards loves doing more than standing around, waiting for things to happen. He’ll kick at the legs of Brady, jab him from distance, throw an occasional strike and back himself up against the cage.
If Brady fights like Usman and Covington did, and gets sucked into that pacing, he will lose. He will be outgunned on the feet and I think Edwards is the more effective striker of the two. Edwards could hurt Brady.
Brady really needs to pressure, and he needs to pressure a lot to win. If he does, he will likely find himself in close where Edwards struggles more, and at that point, he should be the fighter attempting far more offense. Volume inside boxing can beat Edwards and it’s clearly something Brady is capable of.
On the wrestling front, I don’t think Brady is as likely to control Edwards as Muhammad. Brady is a good wrestler but he’s not an elite control fighter. Muhammad earned 12 minutes of control in that fight and a lot of it on Edwards’ back. I don’t think Brady is as likely to get to the back of Edwards and I worry a bit about him abandoning that game plan.
The thing is, Brady can still beat him with pacing. He may fail a few times, but eventually, Brady probably can get Edwards down. Edwards isn’t the easiest guy to take down always but he’s been put on his back in many fights, and he will lay on the mat and give up control.
If Brady is persistent, he has plenty of top control upside here, and his BJJ skills are good enough to threaten some from there. It’s enough to win rounds or swing rounds for sure.
Edwards can also wrestle offensively, and he took Muhammad’s back multiple times as well. Brady is defending takedowns at 85 percent, and I trust enough in his defense to survive. I do think Edwards can get him down occasionally but probably not more than 1-2 times and it’s very possible Brady can scramble up on those occasions.
Overall, I always struggle to pick Edwards to win fights because he just doesn’t do much offensively.
He definitely has a path to victory here, but that path is the same as always. He needs a slow paced fight where he can snipe Brady at distance, and possibly hurt him. He needs to defend takedowns and find some control on the ground himself. In England, maybe he can squeak out a decision on some close rounds.
I’m not convinced Brady will beat him at all, but Brady has shown pacing upside in his fights enough time for me to pick him, including in his most recent bout. He can box and he can wrestle, and if he puts it all together, I believe he’ll do more than Edwards over five rounds and get his hand raised.
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On DraftKings, the pricing of this main event is probably going to put me on the fight more than most of the recent main events we’ve seen.
Brady is priced at 8.6k, which honestly feels expensive. But in order to beat Edwards, you need to produce offense and I think some of that will come with takedowns. Even if Brady isn’t doing a whole lot, he could land five takedowns over 25 minutes and earn a bit of control.
He’s coming off a 165 point score over Burns which I think will drive a lot of traffic his way in this matchup, and I expect Brady to be among the most popular fighters on the slate outright.
I don’t think he is likely to duplicate the striking volume though, which is one worry. If he doesn’t wrestle and only strikes, that would scare the crap out of me from a fantasy standpoint because Edwards just doesn’t absorb a lot.
However, 8.6k is cheap enough that given the wrestling upside of Brady, he’s an obvious target this week and probably a primary one. Even if you aren’t certain he wins, Brady seems quite likely to exceed value and contend for the optimal lineup in any kind of win, with potential to break the slate.
He is only +230 to win ITD but I’m not sure a win ITD is better than a decision, given the potential to wrestle. I will likely have heavy exposure here by default and will likely rank Brady among the best overall targets this weekend.
Edwards is very likely to be the leverage side and at 7.6k, he’s in play too.
I would be pretty fearful of Edwards at 8k but at 7.6k, he too is likely to exceed value in a win. Even with crappy offensive production, Edwards has scored 72, 79, 84 and 91 in recent main events. Looking at those numbers on paper, maybe he isn’t a great play even at 7.6k lol.
It’s just a stylistic issue. If he doesn’t wrestle, where is his offense going to come from? Singular strikes. The counter argument though is that if he beats Brady, he’ll have to do something. And that something is probably enough to exceed 10x value. It still might not be enough honestly.
Edwards is +425 to win ITD and obviously really needs a finish to clearly stand out at his price tag. But even in his last win ITD, he only scored 84.
I have to imagine Edwards will be significantly less popular than Brady, so that will be one benefit to targeting him. He should be leverage and if he wins, he will at least have a shot at the optimal lineup. Based on that alone, you can consider him a solid secondary target though perhaps if he’s chalky, he’s still not a phenomenal one given the questionable ceiling.
I obviously don’t love Edwards myself. I won’t be targeting him super often on this slate. With any decent sized portfolio, I would still use him as a secondary target at 7.6k with the ME profile and leverage against Brady. You can also craft out a small percentage of lineups that fade both sides in case of a low scoring win, which is a strategy we’ve seen be unique and win tournaments in recent weeks.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Brady by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg
Fight Odds: Ulberg -294, Blachowicz +239
Odds to end ITD: -110
DraftKings Salaries: Ulberg 9k, Blachowicz 7.2k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Carlos Ulberg is inching closer to a title shot and will build a great case for one if he gets by former UFC champion Jan Blachowicz this weekend.
Ulberg is 11-1 professionally fighting out of New Zealand and the City Kickboxing team. He comes from a kickboxing background and you can see it in his game. He is now 7-1 in the UFC with his one loss coming to Kennedy Nzechukwu. Ulberg was off to a big lead in that fight but slowed down and eventually got finished.
UIberg thrives with his kickboxing. He is a big, strong and athletic guy and can control range and land point scoring kicks and punches. He has a very good jab. He also has power and has won by first round knockout in four of his last six wins.
Ulberg has also had some occasional success grappling to safety in fights, and lands 0.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. He defends takedowns at 83 percent. I don’t trust his actual technical wrestling and more so think he can just outmuscle lesser athletic fighters and win top position. Good wrestlers could probably beat him. However, he knows some basic techniques.
I do have some concerns with Ulberg though. He has generally won by early KO in the UFC. He gassed in an extended fight against Kennedy and was knocked out. Since then, he has managed his energy much more efficiently in extended fights that he has been in against Volkan Oezdemir, Da Woon Jung and Fabio Cherant. He just looked to control range and minimize engagements and land on his terms. However, he conceded a lot of leg kicks vs Jung who is not even that good and he did look to slow down at times, and disliked the pressure on the feet. I absolutely think Ulberg can still lose to pressure strikers who push a pace and bother him. He just looks like he doesn’t like to be hit.
However, I thought Ulberg handled Volkan Oezdemir well. His cardio actually held up. He also dealt with the leg kicks to a degree. His stock went up to me in that fight. It was still competitive and he only outlanded Oezdemir 98-96 in significant strikes. However, he outlanded Oezdemir 81-51 to the head and landed the better shots.
Ulberg will be taking on UFC veteran and former champion Jan Blachowicz. Blachowicz was last seen in the cage losing a close split decision against Alex Pereira in July of 2023. His layoff is apparently due to a shoulder injury. I also want to point out that Jan is now 42 years old which is very old for high-level UFC fighters. We don’t see many 42-year-olds in the cage anymore.
Jan is a well rounded fighter. He is a pretty good striker. He lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.91 fighting incredible competition. He has good low calf kicks in the orthodox stance. He also has power in his hands and a sneaky good left hook. He is a crafty and skilled striker and he actually outlanded prime Israel Adesanya 85–77 at distance.
Jan is also a decent grappler and submission grappler. He lands 1.09 takedowns per 15 minutes and can occasionally land takedowns and get the back. We saw him have some wrestling success against Alex Pereira. We also saw him control Israel Adesanya. He also submitted Nikita Krylov back in the day.
I don’t totally trust Jan as a consistent offensive wrestling threat though and we have seen him tire out in fights. He has also struggled with good grapplers himself. He defends takedowns at 68 percent which is decent but Corey Anderson and Glover both crushed him on the mat back in the day.
Jan is just a solid crafty veteran. He is tough, well-rounded, and has a ton of experience. He is very old though so who knows how he will look this weekend.
As far as this matchup goes, I honestly am just going to go with Ulberg because I am more confident in his form. He is eight years younger than Jan and Jan is coming off a serious shoulder injury. I just think the trajectory of careers are going in opposite directions and Jan may show up looking bad.
I still think skillfully Jan can compete and may be better in a couple of areas.
On the feet, I think Jan can compete and may have some success with leg kicks. However, I think Ulberg is younger and more athletic and probably has better cardio at this point in their careers. Jan also doesn’t push a huge pace on the feet which may make Ulberg comfortable.
I just think Ulberg is probably a little more likely to be landing more consistently throughout 15 minutes. Striking is super high-variance though and Jan’s competition has been stellar. Either guy could probably hurt one another too. I am not fully confident that Ulberg is clearly better on the feet.
Jan is probably the more skilled grappler. However, I think Ulberg is physical and strong. I tend to think Ulberg can probably use those attributes to keep this fight upright. Ulberg is still pretty inexperienced so Jan using some craft to get a takedown and a back take wouldn’t surprise me. I am leaning against it though.
I am basically just picking Ulberg because he is the more youthful fighter and I trust his form more. I will pick him to get the better of the striking exchanges and win this fight. I am not super confident that there is value on his line at -250 though.
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On DraftKings, Ulberg is going to be very boom or bust as usual at 9k, and I unfortunately probably won’t have a lot of exposure to him.
I do like Ulberg as a talent and I think he probably wins this fight, but he’s so boom or bust that it’s pretty scary. Despite a high-paced matchup against Oezdemir last time out, Ulberg still only scored 69 DK points. His other decision win scored 70. All the big results he’s received have come from early finishes, which is still a viable path.
I do think Ulberg can win by knockout here too. Blachowicz has been KOd before and he’s only getting older.
However, I don’t think it’s an extremely likely outcome. Blachowicz hasn’t been dropped since he got KOd by Thiago Santos in 2019. He’s fought nine times since and looked fine, and his level of competition has been incredible. He fought Pereira, Ankalaev, Adesanya and Reyes in that span. Ulberg is only +170 to win ITD here which is worse than his usual mark, and it makes sense.
Additionally, Blachowicz won’t push a pace. He’ll fight cautiously and slow the pace down, and look for leg kicks. He may also wrestle. So it’s not the type of fight that typically leads to quick KOs and it’s partially why Blachowicz doesn’t get hurt often.
It’s still fine to mix in Ulberg. Maybe he’ll be lower owned now with a poor ITD mark and coming off a low-scoring win. He still has KO upside and it wouldn’t be that crazy of an outcome. I’m just not very excited to target him myself and I don’t think it’s the best matchup for him to reach a ceiling.
I’ll play Ulberg the most when pricing comes into play. He’s cheaper than other high-end options so he fits in well. That could still lead to public ownership which makes me nervous but I think he’s a fine secondary/upside option though one who is ultra boom/bust.
Blachowicz at 7.2k is OK.
I never love him because of his pacing. He has limited upside because of it and I don’t really want to invest in him in this matchup.
At the same time, he’s super experienced and pretty solid. He could strike competitively with Ulberg and he’s going to be the better wrestler as well, so he has paths to win. His ITD line isn’t great at +375 but it’s honestly not horrible. Ulberg has been knocked out before.
At 7.2k, I don’t hate Blachowicz. He shouldn’t be too popular, he’s cheap, and he’ll give you a fair shake for your money. I just worry about his ceiling a little bit and I wouldn’t be surprised if a win translated into 80 something points.
I don’t think Blachowicz is a stand out in this range though, and I really only consider him as a low-end secondary target. I probably won’t be too invested myself. But I do think he has some sneaky win equity and at a cheap price point, he can be mixed into your portfolio at a low rate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Ulberg by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Holland
Fight Odds: Nelson -129, Holland +112
Odds to end ITD: -190
DraftKings Salaries: Nelson 8.5k, Holland 7.7k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an extremely binary fight here between the very popular fighters Kevin Holland and Gunnar Nelson.
Holland has had a rough stretch. He has lost four of his last five fights, and was finished on the mat in his last two fights where he looked horrible in both.
I will say though that I like that Holland is going back down to welterweight for this fight against Nelson. Holland was at a massive size disadvantage at middleweight. De Ridder and Dolidze were clearly so much bigger and more physical than him. I mean De Ridder and Dolidze are thick dudes who could fight at light heavyweight, standing at 6’4” and 6’2.” Gunnar Nelson is 5’11” and could honestly probably fight at lightweight. So I do think this is a much more manageable task for Holland just on size alone. We have also seen Holland just hold up as a grappler much better at welterweight.
Holland thrives as a striker. He lands 4.22 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.22 in return. Those are solid metrics.
In pure striking fights, Holland is quite good. Holland is very skilled and dangerous as a striker. He has crisp kicks and straight punches, and is very relaxed and always seems to find his target. He also stands at 6’3” with an 81” reach which is a big frame for welterweight.
Holland’s issue has always been his defensive grappling, and more specifically, his wrestling. He defends takedowns at 53 percent and can be held on his back. I do think his defensive wrestling has improved and he has learned to scramble back up to his feet at times. However, that didn’t matter in his last two matchups. I still do think De Ridder and Dolidze just had massive size advantages on him though. Still, I will always be skeptical of Holland going against grapplers.
Holland is actually a decent submission grappler. Once he is taken down, he can retain guard and isn’t in a ton of danger. His issue is generally being controlled or just outsized.
Holland is just a fun striking action fighter. He is dangerous and has some skill and volume. He also has good cardio and is generally a tough guy.
One thing I do hate about Holland is how complicit he is losing fights. In his losses to Dolidze and De Ridder, he was laughing and hugging his opponents after and cracking jokes. I am not saying go be a sore loser and throw a fit after a loss. It is fine to congratulate your opponent with a handshake or whatever. I am all about losing with class. However, I just think Holland’s laughing and being so cool with losing shows the mentality of a loser. It is a terrible mindset to have in any area of life.
Holland will be taking on Gunnar Nelson. I always forget Nelson is in the UFC because he has only fought twice since 2019, in dominant grappling wins against Takashi Soto and Bryan Barberena. He takes super long breaks. His last fight was actually in March of 2023 so he again hasn’t fought in a long time.
I am excited to see the Icelandic fighter make his return to the cage this weekend though, and the British fans will probably give him a warm reception.
Nelson is a grappler and a pretty accomplished one on the European grappling scene. Nelson lands 1.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and has some decent wrestling takedowns overall. Once in top position, Nelson is a very dangerous submission grappler. He advances position extremely well and has many passes in his UFC career. He also has a ton of submissions. In fact, he has had 10 UFC wins and eight have come by submission.
Takedowns, advances, and submissions will always be a way for Nelson to win fights in the UFC, especially when he has a grappling edge over his opponent.
However, I do have major concerns with Nelson. Nelson’s striking is historically bad statistically. He lands 1.84 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.00 in return. He has that karate / traditional martial arts striking style where he bounces on his feet and springs in and out of range.
That style is fine if you actually land strikes, but Nelson will literally bounce around and land nothing. The man landed 20 and 9 significant strikes in his last two decision losses lol. That is not a typo. Nelson’s low volume simply puts him at risk to lose fights on the feet because he is not landing anything and is reliant on knockdowns to win on the feet.
Furthermore, Nelson doesn’t always wrestle enough. He only attempts about four takedowns per 15 minutes and only attempted two takedowns against Burns in a three-round decision. I do think he generally looks to wrestle and wrestles enough to beat weak grapplers. He has generally taken down and submitted the fighters that I would have expected him to beat. However, I do worry about him just not attempting enough takedowns, getting stuck on the feet, and losing to someone who he should beat. Maybe I am being paranoid but it is just something to think about.
As far as this matchup goes, I have literally gone back and forth. This is one of the most binary matchups you will see so it makes sense that I am torn.
When this plays out on the feet, Holland will be at a huge advantage. He should just volume Nelson up and maybe even knock him out. I do think Nelson evades strikes enough to just survive though which can give him opportunities to land takedowns.
I still worry that Nelson won’t relentlessly grapple Holland though. De Ridder is a psychopath who chases takedowns and he is huge. Nelson is much smaller and is not as persistent with his takedown attempts. I could easily see Nelson just not being urgent enough and getting outstruck on the feet. Holland also may just stop a takedown and that could be enough for Holland to get an exclusive striking round. Also, even if Nelson lands a takedown later in the round, it may not be enough to steal back the round. So yea Holland can easily win this fight.
God man it is so hard to trust Holland though. He is just a guy with terrible fight IQ and he has consistently lost to grapplers, and then he just smiles and laughs like it is all a stupid joke.
I also think Nelson’s passing game is quite good. We have seen Holland really struggle when someone can get his back and Nelson has a very good ability to get to the back. I honestly think Nelson can submit Holland if he gets there.
I am going to go with Nelson here. I think he can probably land a couple of takedowns over the course of 15 minutes. I also think he can get the back. That just usually doesn’t work out well for Holland.
I am still really torn here though. I have typed in both fighters to win and have deleted their names several times. It is hard to trust either guy.
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On DraftKings, I think Nelson is the easier target given his grappling path, and the upside grapplers have shown against Holland recently.
He’s priced at 8.5k but the betting line is trending toward Holland, which actually makes sense to me. Like Tim, I’m not sure who to pick. I want to pick Holland to be honest but he’s looked awful recently. I’ve never been a huge supporter of Nelson though and he’s super dependent on back takes.
If Nelson wins though, he’s going to land takedowns, earn control, and ideally get a submission. If he can’t get a submission, I’m not even sure Nelson can be optimal because he produces so little offense.
Nelson did score 96 in his last decision win, but that came with 8+ min of control and 140 non-sig. strikes. I guess he can duplicate that if he gets takedowns in each round. He also has a 68 point decision win though, so there’s some concern of downside.
Nelson is +180 to win ITD and is a pretty obvious secondary target, or better. I think you have to play him some. His path to victory is too obvious, combined with Holland’s weaknesses. I don’t think it’s a guarantee at all but there is a very reasonable chance Nelson does find a submission and does reach 100 points in a victory.
I am expecting him to be popular despite the line move, but I’ll have plenty of Nelson this week by default. Probably not much above the field though.
Holland at 7.7k is a frustrating option, and I’m not sure what to do with him.
Yeah, the fight is binary, but the problem is Holland isn’t likely to wrestle, and on the feet, Nelson is just going to try and evade, and point fight from the outside. So although I’m certain Holland can win that, it could be ugly and it very well may not lead to a big score.
For Holland to reach a ceiling, he needs a knockout probably. I think he can do it, I’ve never been that high on Nelson. I remember betting on Ponzinibbio back in the day against Nelson as a big dog and Ponzi knocked him out in like a minute. That was in 2017..
Nelson has one five-rounder where he absorbed 168 sig. strikes (2014) but otherwise, he’s never absorbed more than 47 sig. strikes .. Plus, Nelson could bank a round with grappling here and further limit Holland’s upside.
I actually think the most likely outcome is that if Holland wins, he lands like 70 strikes and busts on DK. However, he could hurt Nelson too, and he’s got a big reach advantage of 9 inches.. He’s +165 to win ITD which is pretty decent and somewhat surprisingly better than Nelson’s line.
It makes sense to include Holland in your portfolio given the ITD upside, and he’s also trending as the value side on DK at +112 to win ITD. I’m just worried he gives up a takedown early and then he can’t recover his DK upside.
So he’ll be a secondary play on paper, and a fine one, but he’s extremely boom or bust and I don’t really trust him to reach a ceiling. It’s not a terrible fight to be cautious with compared to the field, but with the binary nature, each fighter does have an individual path to a ceiling and so mild-moderate exposure as a whole makes sense at their respective price tags.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Nelson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Molly McCann vs. Alexia Thainara
Fight Odds: Thainara -207, McCann +175
Odds to end ITD: +160
DraftKings Salaries: Thainara 8.9k, McCann 7.3k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
After her original opponent Istela Nunes withdrew due to injury, Molly McCann will now be taking on UFC debutant Alexia Thainara who is coming in on short notice.
McCann is coming off a very disappointing performance in a loss against Bruna Brasil where she was mildly outgrappled and outstruck in a somewhat competitive fight.
I actually don’t mind McCann as a fighter, depending on her opponent. She has lost most of her fights by getting outgrappled. Good grapplers will definitely always give McCann issues, and I will never have confidence in her in those spots. However, McCann can put up a lot of offense if she doesn’t have to deal with grapplers.
McCann is best as a boxer. She lands 5.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.72 in return. She defends strikes at 62 percent. I consider her a solid boxer. She has good awareness in the pocket. She also can pressure opponents and land decently hard for a strawweight. She is capable of landing a lot of volume as well. Overall, I consider her boxing pretty strong.
McCann can also land takedowns against weak grapplers just like she did against Belbita in both of the times that they fought. McCann lands 1.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about five takedowns per fight. She isn’t a great grappler but she can take advantage of weak grapplers on the mat and rough them up a bit. I actually think she has improved as a grappler, especially offensively. She shows decent strength when she lands takedowns as well and can literally just overpower her opponents and pick them up in the air.
McCann’s defensive grappling is her issue and her TDD is terrible at 39 percent. She has abysmal tdd. I do think her get-ups have improved to a degree though and she was working up at times against Bruna Brasil.
McCann will be taking on debutant Alexia Thainara. Thainara is a Brazilian fighter who is 11-1 professionally. She is 27 years old. She fights out of the Amanda Ribas family camp.
Thainara’s one loss came when she was 21 years old, coincidently against Bruna Brasil in a fight she was actually doing well in. Thainara was just way too underdeveloped then and she has clearly gotten better since. So that fight wasn’t a concerning loss to me given it came against a decent opponent at an extremely young age.
Thainara booked her ticket to the UFC by winning a dominant decision on the Contender Series against a Brazilian national wrestling champion. Thainara outlanded her opponent 101-46 in significant strikes and actually landed three takedowns of her own.
I actually think Thainara looks like a solid prospect who is UFC level. I don’t know how far she will go but I think she belongs here and she is definitely better than most of the WMMA debutants that we see.
Thainara is kind of a freestyle fighter. She is actually pretty physical and athletic. Those attributes definitely help her. I think she comes from some type of grappling background which makes sense given she has come up in the Ribas camp. Her takedowns are actually pretty strong. She incorporates a lot of trips and can throw in the occasional double leg. I definitely think she will take down many fighters in this division.
Once Thainara is on top, she can hold top position and she is competent. She will throw in ground-and-pound when she postures up. I do wish she advanced position a little more. She has six wins by submission, but I am not as confident in her ability to get dominant positions as she gets steps up in competition.
One thing Thainara does that really annoys me is that she will take an opponent down easily and display a clear ability to keep them down. Then she will stand up and start kicking their legs, and then the ref will reasonably stand them up. That is poor fight IQ and it could legitimately be the reason she loses a fight at the UFC level. So that was annoying because it isn’t even a fighting ability thing. It is just a fight IQ thing.
Thainara’s defensive grappling looked a bit sketchy early in her career, but it has looked much better in her last two or three fights. She has good physicality and I saw her work up well. I want to see more of her defensive grappling, but I do think it will hold up against the weaker grapplers of the UFC.
On the feet, Thainara is also decent. She is fast and athletic and can keep up a good pace. She has good cardio. She likes to land a lead low kick and then she will blast in a three punch combination. She has some pretty fast hands. She is a little green but I honestly don’t think she is bad as a striker and she is clearly improving.
I do question her a bit defensively though as she looks a bit ugly with her striking technique, and her head is sometimes right in the air. I still think she can strike just fine at this level though just with her cardio, volume, and aggressiveness.
I think a decent comparison to Thainara to a male UFC fighter is Vinicius Oliveira. They are basically decent freestyle fighters who aren’t great anywhere but they are somewhat well-rounded, and extremely physical with good cardio.
As far as this matchup goes, I am going to go with Thainara here. I think her biggest advantage is that I think she can basically land takedowns anytime she wants. McCann’s tdd is seriously awful and Thainara shouldn’t have much of a problem landing takedowns if she wants them.
I do think Thainara can also hold some top position, land some ground-and-pound, and rinse and repeat to a degree. She may get the back too. So for those reasons alone, I have to pick Thainara.
I do have some hesitation though. Thainara is a bit loose on top and she also will stand up and let her opponents up. So honestly, I do think McCann could work up or just be given opportunities to get back up. McCann could maybe reverse position too and hold Thainara down a bit, although I generally think Thainara will work up fine. Still though, Thainara has an easy path to top time and I could see her giving McCann unnecessary opportunities to basically get back to her feet.
On the feet, I actually think this is quite competitive. I think Thainara may have better cardio and definitely is more athletic. However, McCann is more experienced and more skilled as a boxer. This is by far the best boxer and striker Thainara has faced and I could see McCann having some good moments on the feet. So McCann could make some rounds close by landing some good flurries.
Still though, Thainara just has to be the pick given her takedowns should come very easy. I also think Thainara could compete just fine on the feet too. So Thainara has more upside and I do think she gets the win this weekend.
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On DraftKings, this is an interesting spot.
I typically like to target McCann fights because they are high paced and this fight won’t be any different.
Thainara is more expensive than I was expecting though at 8.9k, and that makes it difficult to prioritize her. I think her floor in a win is extremely strong though, and based on her DWCS fight, she would have scored in the low 90s. Against McCann, multiple takedowns are in play again as are 100 significant strikes, so I think 80-90 points with some upside on top of that, even in a decision, is reasonable.
I don’t think McCann is completely out of it though. First of all, Thainara is on short notice in her debut, traveling to England. I don’t know if she’ll look her best. McCann is the best striker she’ll have ever fought, and I don’t love Thainara’s defense. Her striking defense was awful in her early fights to the point that she’d be getting KTFO at the UFC level if she didn’t improve. I did think she looked a lot better on DWCS, though there’s still some elements of poor defense.
Regardless, for Thainara, she’ll need to produce a lot of offense to win. It probably comes on the ground and it could even come by submission. She also has a big reach advantage and can land lots of kicks, so I think she’ll score well in a win.
Thainara is only +250 to win ITD though, and it may still be a challenge for her to get to 100+. I don’t think you have to jam her in and she may just be too expensive for what could be a competitive fight.
But the pacing and wrestling equity definitely interest me from the Thainara side. I’ll probably target her mildly or moderately at 8.9k but it’s totally fair to roster the 9k finishing equity options ahead of her.
McCann at 7.3k is just really cheap. Obviously she carries a weak floor and might just get outgrappled and lose.
The upside is that she defends some takedowns, and beats Thainara up down the stretch, potentially even finishing her. I wouldn’t count on a finish at +475 but I could see it if Thainara was gassed out or something. Her cardio looked great on DWCS but again, it’s short notice and she’s traveling across the pond.
Otherwise, McCann can still win a high-paced competitive bout at home. She could land 80+ significant strikes and a couple of takedowns. Her last four decision wins have scored 93, 109, 85 and 91.
I don’t think this is a great matchup and the line is moving toward Thainara, so I don’t think I want to invest a ton into McCann this week, but she’s not a terrible option either. She has some safety on paper in a fight -200 to go the distance, and some win equity for a cheap price tag. She’s a reasonable secondary target because of it, but I don’t expect to end up with a ton of exposure myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Thainara by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris Duncan
Fight Odds: Vucenic -454, Duncan +345
Odds to end ITD: -170
DraftKings Salaries: Vucenic 9.3k, Duncan 6.9k
Weight Class: 155
I’m pretty interested to see Jordan Vucenic get another shot this weekend against Chris Duncan, after a tough debut against a pretty talented Guram Kutateladze last August.
Vucenic is 13-3 professionally at age 29 and he’s a former Cage Warriors champion. He’s earned two wins by KO and six by submission, though I consider him a base kickboxer.
It’s tough to say he’s fought elite competition, but he’s certainly fought some strong opponents on the regionals, even beating current UFC prospect Morgan Charriere over five rounds in 2021.
It’s also interesting that of Vucenic’s six sub wins, one came in his pro debut in 2017 but the other five have been his five most recent wins. He’s just suddenly decided that he’s a better grappler than his competition and has been clearly initiating takedowns, getting on top, and locking up subs.
I’m not certain what belt Vucenic is and I don’t consider him an elite grappler for the UFC level, but I love the mix up and I think it gives him multiple paths to victory.
I’d say it’s the same with his striking, I don’t necessarily consider him an elite talent but he’s pretty technical, fairly fast, and can throw with decent volume. He doesn’t seem to pack one punch KO power but I don’t care as much about that.
In his UFC debut, Vucenic actually dropped Kutateladze in the first round, showing that he still does possess some power threat. I thought he fought very admirably over the full contest too, though he only landed 34 sig. strikes in total.
Vucenic tried to wrestle Kutateladze in the latter rounds, but he was unsuccessful on five attempts. He still got in some good shots but Kutateladze is tough to control. Kutateladze ultimately squeaked out the final two rounds to get the nod on 30 sig. strikes and one takedown.
I still like Vucenic, who has the cardio to go five rounds, and is willing to throw down. His only three losses are decisions, and he doesn’t seem super defensively weak anywhere.
I have seen him taken down a handful of times, and that’s probably going to happen at the UFC level too. But he is at least competent as a grappler and scrambler and hasn’t had too much difficulty finding his way back to his feet.
The ceiling of Vucenic likely isn’t elite given my concerns for his finishing potential at this level, but I like the well-roundedness and cardio of Vucenic and I expect him to at least put on some competitive performances like what we saw in his debut.
This week he’ll face a softer test in Chris Duncan, though Duncan isn’t an opponent I feel comfortable overlooking.
Duncan is 12-2 professionally with seven wins by knockout, and I think that’s going to be his most consistent path to victory. He’s a slow-footed pressure boxer with some power and questionable defense.
That defense led to him getting KOd on DWCS by Borshchev, and nearly KOd in his second attempt by Charlie Campbell. I very much question his hittability moving forward and I think he’ll get KOd again soon.
He’s also been taken down both on the regionals and in the UFC, though he works back up OK. I don’t think he’s phenomenal defensively there either. He was submitted by Manuel Torres in RD 1 last year.
His offensive wrestling is alright, but it’s not great. He’s not a great control fighter and only has two wins by submission. He’s actually coming off choking Bolaji Oki unconscious with a guillotine, which was a pretty strong win. But I still hate relying on those kind of victories.
Though he landed five TDs against Morales in 2023, he didn’t do anything with them, and it was more of a grind. I wouldn’t bet on him to outwrestle good competition but it’s still another path to victory I suppose.
Mostly, I think Duncan will mix in wins and losses, both by knockout. He has tools to win competitive decisions but I don’t think his style will lead to easy round wins.
As far as this matchup goes, I definitely think Duncan is live. I really like Vucenic but I was surprised to see him as a -400 favorite as he’s ultimately unproven at the UFC level.
Coming off a 34-strike performance, I am not convinced he runs away with the fight, especially as Duncan pressures and throws power shots. At the same time, Vucenic is certainly faster than Duncan, and more technical at distance.
Despite more power coming from Duncan, I think Vucenic is far more durable and therefore if someone gets hurt, I expect it to be Duncan. I do think an early KO is viable for Vucenic, as is simply outboxing Duncan over three rounds.
I also think Vucenic is the better grappler of the two. I do think he can land takedowns here, and it’s possible he can take Duncan’s back and submit him. Again, he’s just a little bit unproven and Duncan has shown the ability to land takedowns himself.
Of the two, I would trust Vucenic to retain top position more and if Duncan does get 1-2 takedowns, I don’t think he would do much with them.
The upside in this matchup certainly lies with Vucenic and he’s fighting at home which should be helpful. He is the clear pick for me to win.
I suppose I just want to note that Duncan, although vulnerable, can box and he can wrestle too. If he fought competitively I wouldn’t be surprised. However, I do think Vucenic has the better tools, and his speed and cardio and durability should be solid X factors for him.
I think there’s a decent chance Vucenic can hurt or submit Duncan along the way and I’m hopeful he gets his hand raised this weekend for the first time in the UFC.
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On DraftKings, Vucenic is priced up to 9.3k which will likely put him in the boom or bust category and probably dependent on a finish to stand out in this range.
I am nervous about it because he doesn’t have a lot of KOs, and I’m not sure I want to rely on a submission. He’s not the highest volume striker in the world and coming off a fight, with a KD, where he would have scored 71 DK points, so it feels a bit risky.
With that said, Vucenic might win by KO. He did score a KD and Duncan is vulnerable to getting hurt. Vucenic’s ITD line has moved from +110 to -130 which is interesting. He also has some grappling equity and it could turn into a submission win.
I’m not against playing Vucenic. I think it may be tough to get a ton of him as he’s still expensive and boom or bust, but I’m also warming up to him more throughout the week. There are still other fighters in this range with potential as well.
Regardless, Vucenic has some upside and could be due for a bounce back spot. If he projects to be lower owned, that would only make me more excited. He’ll rate out as a strong secondary target with some boom/bust elements overall but I expect to mix him in near the field average this week or a bit above if I’m feeling frisky.
Duncan at 6.9k is in play but I’m not sure I want to target him much.
He has win equity in my opinion, and if he wins, he’ll likely score well. It will have to come via power or wrestling, and in his wins, Duncan has scored 94, 76 and 90.
However, it’s not an easy matchup and he is a big dog. He’s +600 to win ITD which is poor but I wouldn’t bet on the finish. Kutateladze wasn’t able to produce much offense on Vucenic.
I probably just won’t play much Duncan to be honest. I do think he’s viable but he’s a low-end/salary saver or punt target at best given the situation. Mix him in a little bit with a large portfolio but I’m not aiming to punt very often this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vucenic by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Nathaniel Wood vs. Morgan Charriere
Fight Odds: Charriere -136, Wood +118
Odds to end ITD: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Charriere 8.7k, Wood 7.5k
Weight Class: 145
We should get a fun action fight here between two solid professionals in Nathaniel Wood and Morgan Charriere.
Charriere is one of the better French prospects in the promotion, and is coming off a highlight reel KO victory over Gabriel Miranda in September.
Charriere is now 20-10 professionally with 12 wins by knockout and three by submission, and he’s 2-1 in the UFC thus far. He won his debut over Manolo Zucchini by TKO, and lost a split decision against Chepe Mariscal which has aged well in hindsight.
Charriere is a primary striker, who excels with his hands, and also has a respectable kicking game. He’s not an extremely high-paced striker though, and in his loss against Mariscal, Charriere was only able to land 49 sig. strikes in 15 minutes.
He is effective though, and capable of hurting opponents. When he’s able to get stand-up affairs against weak competition, he will have potential to run through them, similar to what we saw in his debut, and what we saw against Miranda.
However as he takes steps up in competition, his lack of volume will likely contribute to competitive rounds, and he can be hit frequently enough to the point where he can take some damage.
On the ground, Charriere is capable but I’m not sure that’s a strong suit of his either. He’s lost by decision nine times, and has been taken down a handful of times in those losses.
Against Mariscal, Charriere defended seven of eight takedown attempts, but still allowed a takedown and reversal, and several minutes of control time. I thought he scrambled well in that fight but the point remains that he’s not likely to dominate in that area, and will be susceptible to being put on his butt by stronger wrestlers.
I do think he’s improving though, and I consider him an OK offensive wrestler. He also landed a good takedown late in that fight and is averaging 2.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, so it’s possible he will continue to mix them in. I just don’t see him having the highest wrestling ceiling against strong competition.
Overall, I’d consider Charriere an effective striker who can occasionally mix in ground success, but I’m just a little worried that he’s going to be able to separate himself against the majority of the division.
That could be a problem against Nathaniel Wood, who is very consistent and brings a decent pace every time he steps into the cage.
Wood is coming off a strong win over Daniel Pineda, and is truly a veteran of the UFC, having fought 11 times since he debuted in 2018. He’s won eight times of those 11 appearances too, though his last five have come by decision.
Wood is pretty well-rounded, experienced, and competent everywhere though he doesn’t have the highest ceiling himself. He’s a volume kickboxer and very willing to engage, and he lands 5.75 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.0 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.
I’ve always liked Wood because he is consistent and shows up, but he is hittable. On the regionals, he was known as a guy who would brawl and get himself hurt. That’s still one detractor in his game, though his chin holds up very well, Wood can be cracked and he doesn’t possess elite KO power himself.
Still, Wood has the ability to make rounds competitive and edge them out on pure volume, and he’s able to fire off strikes to multiple levels. We saw him land 36 leg kicks against Andre Fili in 2023 as one example, in what was a back and forth war.
Additionally, Wood can wrestle. He lands 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes though he’s not a dominant submission grappler or physical force. It’s simply another tool for Wood, and he’s shown some intelligence to mix it in when the time is right.
Against Charles Jourdain in 2022, Wood landed five takedowns on eight attempts, earning nearly five minutes of control to help him win that bout. He’s coming off the win against Pineda where he did not wrestle but was forced into a bunch of grappling exchanges.
I trust in Wood’s grappling as a whole, but he can be taken down. He defends at 72 percent. Naimov took him down four times in his recent loss and he gave up nearly seven minutes of control. So the ground game has some ups and downs for Wood.
Overall, Wood is just going to be in a lot of action fights. He produces enough offense to threaten opponents consistently, but he’s not the best finisher and is often in competitive fights because of it.
It’s an interesting matchup here because you can certainly argue Charriere is the more technical striker, and the prettier striker. I think Charriere is a bit better than Wood outright, and he might land the better shots throughout.
But Wood is also clearly the higher paced guy, and someone who is willing to take shots to return them. It’s going to put pressure on Charriere and if Charriere cannot finish Wood, I think it’s very realistic to think Wood can edge out rounds himself at home in England.
My guess is both guys can take each other down as well, but I don’t know if either will dominate.
I trust Wood a bit more as a more experienced grappler and wrestler, but Charriere has looked OK thus far in the UFC on defense. Wood may land 0 takedowns, or he may land 2-4 depending on how much he pursues them. Either is possible but I don’t think he’s extremely likely to control Charriere for long stretches of time.
Simply mixing in a couple of takedowns would just put further pressure on Charriere though, and it may be that the overall offensive production from Wood is enough to get his hand raised.
Charriere can also take Wood down, I’m pretty sure, but it probably won’t be his focus. I don’t think he can hold Wood down for long stretches of time, but maybe he’s improved to the point that he can swing rounds with wrestling himself. Whoever is on top here will have advantages, and both men have potential for it.
Honestly, I was leaning toward Charriere pre-fight, but I do think this is a step up in competition for him and I don’t see a reason to be super confident in the outcome.
Charriere likely has more knockout equity, but I think Wood is the more consistent and more experienced veteran who will surely keep up with Charriere on the numbers. This has the makings of a competitive fight to me and both fighters clearly can win rounds against one another.
I may lean toward the underdog Wood to edge this one out with some higher paced kicking, but I do expect Charriere will have his moments of effectiveness as well.
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On DraftKings, Charriere is too expensive for my liking at 8.7k and I think he needs a finish to contend for the optimal.
He’s just not high enough paced to stand out at this price, and his betting line is moving in the wrong direction. At -136, Charriere is overpriced for 8.7k.
The positive is that Wood will push a pace, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Charriere reach career highs because of it. Maybe 80 sig. strikes and a couple of takedowns are in play, but that’s still only barely approaching 80 DK points with some extra-curriculars.
So I think Charriere needs to dominate and the best chance of that is with a knockout. He is +235 to win ITD which is fine but nothing special. Wood can be hurt though.
I think Charriere will be a semi-contrarian target this week and not one I’m in love with. He does have two big wins though of 108 and 110, but it’s important to remember both of those came with early KOs and both came against super low-level competition.
Still, Charriere can knock dudes out, so targeting him as a purely boom or bust secondary target is viable. He has some KO upside but at 8.7k I find it hard to roster him often.
Wood at 7.5k is the easier play for me but it’s still not one I love.
I more prefer him for win equity and pricing value but I don’t think this is an easy matchup. Charriere won’t yield a ton of strikes, so I don’t think Wood has a massive volume ceiling. Takedowns would be the better path for Wood to score but 2-3 takedowns may not yield results either.
Wood is also only +625 to win ITD which is really poor, and potentially another reason to be cautious with him. I don’t think he finishes the fight.
However, Wood typically scores well because of his pacing, so at 7.5k, he’s a very viable secondary target. He’s scored 81, 87, 108 and 77 in his last four decision wins, so he has a strong chance of reaching 10x in a win.
This isn’t the best fight for Wood to reach a ceiling so I’ll be a bit cautious, but I’m happy to mix him in at this price as a fighter who will try hard and with a realistic path to taking a decision.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wood by Decision (Confidence=Low)
UNDERCARD
Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla
Fight Odds: Herbert -115, Padilla +100
Odds to end ITD: -105
DraftKings Salaries: Herbert 8.3k, Padilla 7.9k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Jai Herbert came into the UFC back in 2020 on the heels of winning the Cage Warriors lightweight championship. He’s starting to get up there in age now at 36 and has had an up and down run in the promotion – he’s 3-4-1 in the UFC and 13-5-1 as a pro. Chris Padilla got the call to the UFC this past year as a short notice fill in and has made good on his first two promotional bouts – he’s 2-0 in the UFC and 15-6 as a pro.
The striking component:
Herbert’s a longer guy for division with a 77” reach who had traditionally worked a higher-output, boxing-based style regionally, but that hasn’t been the case as much in the UFC.
Part of that is due to matchups but he only lands 3.2 SLpM at 42% and 4.5 DLpM at 37%. He’s constantly in motion though and has some pretty quick hands with pop to boot, scoring KOs in nine of his 13 pro wins. But despite his movement patterns, he can be hittable in the pocket at times. He only eats 3.4 SApM at 52% and 4.5 DApM at 58%.
He dropped Trinaldo in the 2nd round but Trinaldo survived and KO’d Herbert viciously in the 3rd. Trinaldo also outlanded him and landed 51% of his significant strikes in comparison to Herbert at 30%, but Trinaldo was a very tough debut and a hard guy to get strikes off on which needs to be said.
He then ice’d Worthy in under three minutes which was largely the consensus of what was to happen in that fight given that Worthy has no chin. He next drew highly touted prospect (now champion), Ilia Topuria where he hurt him significantly at multiple points in the 1st round but eventually got deaded in the 2nd.
His following three fights were fought at pretty slow paces where striking margins weren’t wide either way against Klein, Nelson or Ziam. He recently just outclassed Bedoya.
Overall, Herbert’s got solid hands but isn’t a pace machine and can make defensive mistakes.
I’m unsure of Padilla’s striking background but he fights in a range kickboxing based style.
He’s not the tallest lightweight out there at 5’9” but does possess a 74” reach. In general, I would classify his stand up as decent – nothing special but not bad either.
He’s coming off landing 68 SS against Rongzhu but historically he’s fought at a more measured pace to where I’d say his output is about average. He smashed Rongzhu with a nasty step-in elbow which forced the doctor stoppage, but he’s not a flashy guy in the aggregate and he sticks to the basics between 1-2s, low kicks and tepe kicks.
Eight of his 15 pro wins come via strikes but most of them have come on the ground so I still don’t think he’s a conventionally large hitter.
Defensively, he’ll use some lateral movement and remains pretty disciplined in keeping a higher guard to block shots, but he will shell and we have seen some opponents be able to effectively split or work around it. But he’s also not the type to get into bigger pocket exchanges so he’s usually not eating extended combos either – he has struggled with effective pressure at points though and doesn’t check leg kicks.
But he’s largely proven durable over his career having only been stopped with strikes once which dated back to 2016 in his first pro loss to former UFC fighter Jason Gonzalez.
Overall, Padilla’s striking is meat and potatoes but he’s serviceable on the feet.
How it plays out: Off the top, Herbert will realize a decided size advantage of 4” in height and 3” in reach. In general, I think Herbert is the better/slicker boxer with quicker hands and more historic damage upside. But as noted, he hasn’t been an uber volume guy in the UFC as when guys are fine to oblige more in the mid-range and move, the fights become more tepid which is kind of what Padilla profiles to do. So, despite me thinking Herbert is the better pure striker here, the general striking dynamic leads me to believe that exchanges will be competitive. Also, while Herbert has shown more distance potency, his chin has come into question at times more than Padilla, at least in a more recent sample.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Herbert’s a striker by base but reps a BJJ brown belt.
Given his boxing pedigree, he almost never wrestles offensively as his advantages have primarily come on the feet in the aggregate – 0.5 TDs per 15 minutes at 23%.
He was able to win on control time against the fence and on the ground against Nelson, but he still didn’t officially land a TD – he got on top of Nelson in the 3rd off a failed TDA from Nelson. He landed his 1st official UFC TD in his outing against Klein later when Klein was tired and got some control time, but Klein also got up.
Defensively, his TDD isn’t the best defending at 59% but I wouldn’t say it’s horrible either as I’ve seen him stuff some deep shots as well.
But I’ve seen him get taken down multiple times in quite a few of his fights, get mounted twice and have his back taken. In that, guys have been able to pass his guard.
We saw Moicano have lots of ground success, but all things considered, no real shame there and he did put up resistance in not getting submitted until the end of the 2nd round – pretty impressive actually but got out grappled, nonetheless.
He did get stuck on bottom for a good chunk of the 1st against Topuria as well but did eventually work up.
However, he’s not a fish out of water there as he’s shown competency to get out of some tricky spots and will regain his guard in most instances. I will give him credit in that he’s improved in this capacity over the years but it’s not his base.
Overall, I would still say the ground is more of a negative than positive for Herbert as he is being outcontrolled more than he’s controlling.
I’m unsure of Padilla’s floor background but the bulk of his recent work has come on the ground.
He’s not a powerhouse wrestler but he’s shown respectable double legs and the ability to dump guys with body locks.
His control has been a bit all over the board as I’ve seen him rack up healthy minutes over certain opponents, but others have been able to get up fairly easily.
However, he’s a multi-pronged threat on the floor as he’s shown good GNP from both top and back ride positions in addition to some decent back takes where he has 5 pro wins via submission – in addition to multiple positional TKOs as noted above.
We haven’t seen anyone really look to wrestle him in recent years so his TDD is somewhat questionable. He’s been submitted twice as a pro as well but they’re fights I wasn’t able to view and they both came back in 2018 – one was to Gabe Green who’s a current UFC fighter and the other one was to Nate Andrews who’s a good grappler.
Overall, I’m curious to see how Padilla’s ground game translates more to the UFC but he’s a capable ground fighter and it’s a decent complement to his striking.
How it plays out: Despite Herbert’s Brown Belt status, he’s only submitted one guy in his pro career and just hasn’t been a very effective wrestler over a wider sample size. As noted, the TDD is a bit dodgy but he has improved his get up game and getting subbed by Moicano is really no knock. Nonetheless, I still think the bulk of upside goes to Padilla here as he’s the more trustworthy party to shoot and secure TDs. In fairness, I don’t think he’s going to submit Herbert but in a fight that profiles to potentially have competitive striking rounds, a handful of TDs from Padilla could loom larger in terms of deciding rounds even if he’s not able to ground Herbert for longer stretches of time.
Tricky fight. Herbert’s obviously the more battle tested guy here who’s fought a much stronger strength of schedule and some quality guys very competitively. However, his style just doesn’t lead to much separation and he’ll be turning 37 years old in a few months. On the flip side, Padilla had a dodgy regional record but appears to be improving, now riding a 5-fight win streak and entering his career prime at 29 years old. Barring no finish either way, this is probably another 29-28 type of fight that I don’t have a strong opinion on. I slightly lean to Padilla as the more youthful fighter with more grappling upside but Herbert is a step up from James Llontop and Rongzhu.
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On DraftKings, this fight very much fits into the theme of the mid-range this week where I feel kind of obligated to pick Herbert, but I’m not that confident and I think Padilla is the higher upside option.
Herbert is priced at 8.3k and probably needs a knockout. He’s a decent fighter but he hasn’t been an incredible finisher at the UFC level – with that said he knocked down Trinaldo, KOd Worthy and nearly KOd Topuria – on the flip side he lost two of those fights.
He’s just not going to be an incredible volume producer to the point that he can contend with the optimal without a finish, and he doesn’t wrestle much. I wouldn’t expect Herbert to have much wrestling success in this matchup.
I think he just needs a KO. He’s +310 to win ITD so he doesn’t rate out particularly well. I’m a bit skeptical of Padilla but not to the point I’d be willing to bet much on Herbert. My guess is Herbert comes in very low owned this week, and he’ll likely be the leverage side of this matchup. I don’t mind Herbert in that sense as a place to be unique but I don’t think his path to a ceiling is very clear and I probably won’t be investing much myself.
Padilla at 7.9k isn’t a great fighter, and my guess is he loses, but I’m pretty skeptical of Herbert’s chin at this point, and Padilla also profiles as the better wrestler.
So if Padilla wins, I think it’s likely by knockout, or via wrestling, and both paths could score well enough. He’s also +205 to win ITD which checks out in the sense that it’s superior to Herbert’s.
Coming off two wins in a row that scored 98 and 113, Padilla could be quite popular. That does make me a little nervous as it’s worth contextualizing that he didn’t even knock Rongzhu down in his last fight. He got very lucky the doctor had to stop the fight as Rongzhu wasn’t ready to quit.
So if he projects to be very popular, I’d be a little nervous and I’d probably aim to be underweight based on the very clear step up in competition. At the same time, he has some upside in this matchup in a win and I don’t mind him at his price. He rates out OK and is a fine secondary target for finishing equity.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Herbert by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Felipe dos Santos
Fight Odds: Kavanagh -281, dos Santos +230
Odds to end ITD: +170
DraftKings Salaries: Kavanagh 9.1k, dos Santos 7.1k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
I am super excited for the return of Lone’er Kavanagh. I was really impressed with his tape before his UFC debut. His opponent Felipe dos Santos will bring it too. So this should be a fun matchup.
Lone’er Kavanagh is 8-0 professionally and is 25 years old. He fights out of England and comes from the Nathanial Wood camp. He is a five-time K1 kickboxing champion and has a lot of combat sports experience in general. He has fought most of his MMA career in Cage Warriors where he fought some solid competition and gained some good experience.
Kavanagh booked his ticket to the UFC by knocking out his opponent on the Contender Series early. His opponent was actually a promising prospect. However, Kavanagh landed an insanely fast left hook that knocked his opponent dead.
I honestly really like Kavanagh’s game and believe he is UFC ready and could probably compete with some top 15 flyweights now.
Kavanagh is probably best as a striker given his kickboxing background. He is extremely athletic and can switch stances effortlessly. He also has some very good power for a small man and consistently hurts his opponents.
Kavanagh controls range well and is extremely fast. He is quick with his in and out movement and can land a wide variety of strikes. He has a nasty left hook. He will also land kicks to the body and legs. He also seems tough. I have seen him dropped once but he recovered very well. I overall just think Kavanagh is a very solid striker with his athleticism, speed, and strike diversity.
Kavanagh also looks like a decent wrestler. I haven’t seen him fight any good grapplers or anything so I do think he is a bit untested. However, my eyes tell me that he is a competent grappler. He is capable of landing takedowns with his speed and drive in his shots. He can also ride out top position. He generally looks to wrestle to put a stamp on rounds or if he is in any danger on the feet.
Kavanagh also looks like a pretty solid defensive wrestler too. I have seen him scramble well and defend takedowns. Again, he is a bit untested in general but I really think this guy is a pretty polished fighter already with no major holes. He is a good athlete, a good striker, he can wrestle, he can fight a hard three rounds, and he seems tough.
Kavanagh’s UFC debut was against Jose Ochoa. Kavanagh was a big favorite going into that matchup, but it was actually a competitive fight. Kavanagh won the fight but only outlanded Ochoa 51-50 in significant strikes in a fight that almost exclusively took place at range. Kavanagh landed the better shots though and was rightfully given the decision. I do think Ochoa is actually solid though and was underrated going into that matchup, so the performance wasn’t too concerning to me.
Kavanagh will be taking on Felipe dos Santos. Dos Santos is a Brazilian fighter who is 8-2 professionally and 1-2 in the UFC. Dos Santos comes out of the Charles Oliveira camp.
Dos Santos is very aggressive and looks to come forward and make things happen. He isn’t technical on the feet but will just spam kicks and crazy punches. He doesn’t have a ton of one punch power. However, he is just so aggressive and will keep coming, and he has good cardio. He can also spam takedown attempts. I don’t think his takedowns are very good, but I do think he can drown some guys with his style as he is always attempting offense. He is capable of locking in body triangles too.
The issue with dos Santos is that he isn’t very technical and he has no defense. Even in fights that he has won, I have seen him hurt badly and he always gets hit very hard. He is definitely going to get knocked out at some point with how risky his fighting style is. Furthermore, he doesn’t have the best defensive wrestling and looks to play guard.
Dos Santos still competed well with Manel Kape for three rounds on the feet, so he is capable standing. That performance has aged very well as Kape will likely be fighting for a title soon.
However, Dos Santos has been taken down 11 times in his last two fights and that has been his kryptonite. He lost to Andre Lima by getting controlled for 9 minutes. He won a split decision against Altamarino in a fight where he was taken down nine times, and most people including myself thought he lost. So he clearly has issues with his defensive wrestling.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Kavanagh is the rightful favorite because he can probably mix in wrestling. I do think he can land some takedowns here and consolidate some top position time. So that alone makes him the pick for me.
The issue is that Kavanagh may not persistently wrestle. He comes from a striking background and is a good striker, so he may very well just strike as he will be comfortable striking. I also don’t know how easily he can hold dos Santos down either. So I still think Kavanagh will strike here for plenty of stretches.
That will give Dos Santos some opportunities to compete. I still favor Kavanagh standing as I think Kavanagh controls range better and is much better defensively than dos Santos. Kavanagh also hits harder from a one shot perspective and could honestly probably hurt dos Santos.
I still don’t think this is a cakewalk for Kavanagh on the feet though. Dos Santos is very aggressive and is bigger than Kavanagh and may bother Kavanagh with length and constant pressure. I do think Dos Santos can compete standing, maybe land some hard shots here and there, etc.
Still though, Kavanagh is still more skilled standing and has the wrestling to fall back on if he is in danger. I expect some shaky moments for Kavanagh but I do think he will do enough standing, mix in some wrestling, and probably win rounds because of that.
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On DraftKings, Kavanagh feels fairly boom or bust at 9.1k just like the majority of this top range.
As much as I’d love to say otherwise, the guy just landed 51 sig. strikes in 15 minutes in his UFC debut and scored 50 DK points. I do think this fight will take place at a faster pace, but it probably won’t matter. Kavanagh likely needs the knockout.
I suppose he can also land takedowns but again, how can we rely on that? I’m not sure 1-2 takedowns would make the world of difference either for Kavanagh from an upside standpoint.
The real positive is that dos Santos is very hittable. He’s tough as hell but he’s going to get hurt soon, and he was already knocked down by Kape. I do think a knockdown is in play for Kavanagh, but he’s only +225 to win ITD so he won’t rate out super well.
Honestly, this isn’t a terrible spot if Kavanagh is going to be underowned. He burned a lot of people in his debut and now he doesn’t rate out well. Dos Santos is absorbing strikes at 41 percent.. I actually don’t mind Kavanagh at 9.1k because of it.
He’ll just be a standard boom or bust option but I don’t think he’s a much worse play than others in this range, who are also boom or bust. If the fight extends, which I guess I will favor, so be it. You don’t have to jam in a lot of Kavanagh this week. He’ll have a clear speed advantage and I still think a knockout is viable, so I don’t mind him as a semi-contrarian target this weekend.
Dos Santos at 7.1k has a path to victory as well.
After getting dropped by Kape, he still came back to make it a competitive fight and landed 99 significant strikes of his own. He definitely could make rounds competitive with volume. So many undefeated fighters have already lost this year.
At the same time, I don’t think dos Santos has tremendous upside. I don’t think he can wrestle with much success, and I don’t think he will land 100 significant strikes. Even if he does, that’s 70 DK points in a decision, which isn’t super special.
Dos Santos is +600 to win ITD so he doesn’t rate out well from a finishing standpoint. I don’t think he’s a completely awful play just with some sneaky round-winning equity, but I’m not really dying to bet against Kavanagh and I don’t see a clear path to a big score for dos Santos, even if he pulls off the upset. So I’d rather come in light generally and target other underdogs with higher upside.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kavanagh by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)
Marcin Tybura vs. Mick Parkin
Fight Odds: Parkin -120, Tybura +105
Odds to end ITD: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Tybura 8.2k, Parkin 8k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a gatekeeper matchup here in the heavyweight division as UK prospect Mick Parkin will try to get past UFC veteran Marcin Tybura.
Parkin is 10-0 professionally. On the regionals, Parkin mostly fought terrible competition and would beat them on the mat by being a better grappler.
Parkin then fought on the Contender Series and won by RNC. It was a pretty sloppy fight. Both guys chaotically exchanged in the pocket, but Parkin’s opponent tired out badly which gift wrapped Parkin a win.
Parkin then made his UFC debut against Jamal Pogues and won a clean decision. We actually saw Parkin straight up strike in that fight which we didn’t always see on the regionals. Parkin showed okay boxing and cardio in that matchup and outlanded Pogues 82-34 at distance. Parkin didn’t even attempt a takedown in that fight which was a surprise as I generally labeled him as a grappler before that fight.
Then Parkin fought Caio Machado and won that fight by landing three takedowns and controlling Machado for a couple of rounds. I actually thought Parkin’s striking looked bad in that fight and he was outlanded 68-34 at range. He also slowed down in round three.
Most recently, Parkin defeated Mohammed Usman and Lukasz Brzeski. Parkin and Usman just struck and Parkin mildly outstruck Usman 72-57 in significant strikes. He then knocked out Brzeski. I don’t take much from those wins because Usman isn’t a good Striker and Brzeski has no chin.
Overall, Parkin just seems like a bit of a freestyle fighter who is a decent heavyweight. He will box and look to grapple a bit and has okay cardio for a heavyweight. I don’t think he is great anywhere though and I don’t love his athleticism.
I also am unsure about Parkin’s defensive grappling at this point. I did see him put on his back a few times on the regionals which is a bad sign. He was even mounted. He did at least get to a hip, get an underhook and work up which I liked to see but that was against terrible competition. He has barely even faced takedown attempts in the UFC. He has only faced four and all against non-grapplers. So he is truly untested as a defensive grappler.
Well, this is a good test for that as Parkin will be taking on UFC veteran Marcin Tybura. Tybura’s strengths are his cardio and his wrestling. He can fight a HARD 15 minutes without getting tired, and he can really tire out his opponents.
Tybura also lands 1.42 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of landing takedowns, floating on top, and kind of overwhelming his opponents. He actually dominated Sergei Spivac (who is a decent grappler) on the mat, and controlled him for over eight minutes, though he lost in the rematch by early sub. He also recently beat the crap out of Jhonata Diniz. He mounted Diniz and finished him after getting hurt early in the fight. I seriously respect the top game of Tybura.
Tybura can also hold his own on the feet. He lands 3.57 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.26 in return. He isn’t a great striker and isn’t particularly dangerous on the feet. However, he can push a pace and mix in takedowns and have success. He held his own against Volkov on the feet even and was only outlanded 54-47 at distance.
I still hate Tybura’s lack of power though. He has landed one knockdown in 51 rounds in the UFC. That is outrageously bad for a heavyweight. He is also a guy who can be hurt and he has been knocked out several times, but generally against very heavy hitters and good competition.
I think Tybura has good TDD and he actually defends takedowns at a solid 77 percent. He is hard to actually take down. I also like how he scrambles up when taken down. He gives up his back and does a classic wrestling stand up. He wastes no time. I like his TDD and get ups.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think I favor Parkin on the feet. I still think it would be competitive from a minute per minute perspective as I don’t think Parkin is some special striker. However, Parkin definitely hits harder than Tybura. I mean Tybura just never lands knockdowns. I think the power advantage alone is the reason to favor Parkin standing. So if the fight plays out on the feet, Parkin can definitely win. He may be reliant on power though to truly pull away.
The issue is Parkin may be awful on the mat. I seriously am skeptical of his defensive grappling. It may turn out to be fine but I didn’t like some sequences on the regionals. They were a while ago, but this is BY FAR the best grappler Parkin has faced, especially from a top game perspective. I could easily see Tybura exposing this dude on the mat.
I am actually going to pick it to happen too. Tybura has good cardio and will probably look for a handful of takedown attempts or so, and may just get the top position that he needs. Maybe Parkin shows up with good tdd or get ups, but he will have to prove it to me before I pick him to beat a solid grappler like Tybura.
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On DraftKings, it’s another weird fight that you can look at from both sides.
I’m not shocked that the fight is -145 to go the distance, but I also think there’s a good chance it ends early.
I especially think Parkin has a good shot to win by KO. I love Tybura and I’ve picked him to win too many fights over the years. However, he gets hurt a lot and he’s now approaching 40 years old. Parkin is a decade younger, fighting at home and I just like his career trajectory more.
Also if Tybura wins, it could easily come ITD on the mat. A decision is certainly viable as well but I don’t really think Tybura is winning this fight on the feet. So if he has enough grappling success to get his hand raised, a sub or positional TKO is in play.
Tybura is the more expensive fighter here at 8.2k though he’s now the underdog which makes things weird. I was pretty high on him in his last fight against Diniz because Diniz is legit bad on the ground. Tybura still got hurt early but came back to win and scored 131 points.
I personally don’t think that kind of upside is on the table this week. And he’s only +290 to win ITD. However, if he wins, I do think wrestling is involved so there’s a good chance he exceeds value at his price tag.
I may just be wrong, but I’m guessing Parkin shows up looking more improved and won’t be easy to hold down. I worry that this just isn’t a great spot for Tybura and I don’t want to overinvest in him because of that. Regardless, you can blindly view him as a solid secondary target as he may be somewhat dependent on grappling success to win, and Parkin is still a bit unknown.
Parkin is 8k and now the favorite, and coming off a big first round KO which scored 114 DK points. He could be popular because of it.
The issue is that in his previous three decision wins, he scored 59, 83 and 69. An extended fight is not going to be good for Parkin and it’s extremely possible. He will be boom or bust and could be a frustrating target if you’re too invested.
At the same time, Tybura gets hurt often, and it usually comes early. I think there’s a pretty reasonable chance Parkin can hurt him early. He’s +260 to win ITD.
I’m actually going the opposite way and picking Parkin to win by KO. I just have a gut feeling Tybura is going to get hurt but that’s usually not the best approach or reasoning to rely on a fighter. Parkin could also win an extended fight with better striking optics.
I think you should have some exposure to him, but you don’t need to force it as it’s very boom or bust. I may have more shares than I would have expected to start the week, but that doesn’t make it the right call. Either way, both sides have paths to a ceiling and I don’t mind targeting this fight in a shaky mid-range.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Parkin by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Andrey Pulyaev
Fight Odds: Duncan -580, Pulyaev +420
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Duncan 9.6k, Pulyaev 6.6k
Weight Class: 185
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a super random middleweight matchup here as home favorite Christian Leroy Duncan will be taking on newcomer Andrey Pulyaev.
Duncan is a British fighter who is 10-2 professionally with his first seven fights taking place in Cage Warriors, a decent regional promotion.
Duncan is a striker who is dangerous at range. He doesn’t look to grapple much. He switches stances and mixes in a lot of kicks. He controls range pretty well and has knockout power. He is a bit hittable, and I do think as he gets steps up in competition, his striking will probably be exposed. However, I do think he can win fights on the feet at this level and he is certainly dangerous.
Duncan also has decent first layer TDD. It isn’t perfect, and he did get taken down and controlled a bit by Gregory Rodrigues. I have seen him held down here and there in other matchups too. Even Petrosyan took him down. However, he is tough to actually ground and keep grounded. I think he can mitigate the grappling of plenty of guys. Above-average grapplers can have success against him though and he does get clinched up a bit.
Overall Duncan is a fun action fighter who will have some fun striking battles in this division and he is certainly a knockout threat. He mixes in some flashy strikes and has a lot of power, and will be a good guy to have on fight night cards.
Duncan will be taking on UFC debutant Andrey Pulyaev. Pulyaev is a Russian fighter who is 9-2 professionally. There isn’t a ton of tape on this guy but we have enough to know what he brings as a fighter. He basically had a little tape on the regionals and then he fought a 15 minute fight on the Contender Series to make it to the UFC.
I know what you are thinking. This guy is Russian so he must be a wrestler! Well, he did start wrestling as a late teenager but wrestling is definitely not his strength. We have seen him taken down and outwrestled in plenty of his fights and he will get exposed defensively as a grappler in the UFC. I don’t think he is much of a threat offensively as a wrestler either. I have seen him get top position and pathetically lose position.
Fighting out of the southpaw stance, Pulyaev is somewhat competent as a striker. He won his Contender Series fight by outstriking his opponent 98-45 in significant strikes. He can land his jab and straight left hand. He then likes to follow up that combination with a rear low kick and then will mix that same rear kick to the body as well. He also showed some decent hand speed in that fight. He doesn’t have a ton of power though and he isn’t the best athlete.
Pulyaev’s regional tape looked really bad. I do think he looked better in his Contender Series fight. However, the issue is that Pulyaev’s Contender Series opponent had nothing to offer on the feet. So Pulyaev didn’t have to really deal with any striking threat coming his way at all. I am not totally convinced Pulyaev is any good. I don’t think he is terrible. He seems somewhat gritty and will go forward and land a little volume. However, he just isn’t good at anything either and isn’t the best athlete.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think this line could be a bit wide. This will likely be a striking fight and sometimes Duncan doesn’t land a ton of volume, and tries low percentage spinning strikes so -550 seems a little too optimistic.
I still think Duncan is the rightful favorite though. I think Duncan has more power on the feet and is more dynamic and talented overall. He is just such a better athlete as well. I do think ultimately that will be the difference. Duncan will probably land a little harder and seems much more likely to win by knockout.
I actually also think of the two, Duncan may be the better wrestler as well and could mix in a takedown or something here. I don’t fully trust him to go that route though as he has only landed one takedown in the UFC.
I still think striking is high-variance and Pulyaev isn’t completely terrible on the feet. Pulyaev may be attempting more volume than Duncan, and he could be scoring some points with his kicks and straight punches. So again, I do think this could be competitive here and there.
Ultimately though, I am just expecting Duncan’s power to show up eventually to either hurt Pulyaev or just land more effectively to take rounds. So I will go with Duncan to win.
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On DraftKings, Duncan is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k.
Like most priced near the top in recent weeks, he’ll still be boom or bust. He’s not a super high-volume fighter and he rarely wrestles. He’ll likely need an early KO to exceed value and contend for the optimal.
The concern is that with his style, Duncan often makes it to latter rounds. Even against two awful fighters in Tiuliulin and Ribeiro, Duncan made it to round two. He did knock both out though.
In those fights, Duncan scored 107 and 120, so he can still reach a ceiling with a mid-round finish. It’s just about timing really. He was able to produce enough offense over 6-7 minutes or so, and then finish the fight. If the fight hit round three or went to a decision, I wouldn’t expect a huge score.
This matchup is a bit weird and I don’t feel super comfortable in Pulyaev. I don’t think he’s very special but he does throw a lot. Duncan honestly might wrestle him down.
Duncan is -200 to win ITD which is the best line on this slate, and Pulyaev has been TKOd before. He looks like the type who will get TKOd again. I think it very well could come in this matchup, I’m just not completely sold on Duncan pushing a pace and getting the fight over quickly. The fight is -170 to go Over 1.5 rounds which is a mild concern.
Regardless, Duncan will rate out well for fishing equity and you could choose to prioritize him because of it. Priced at 9.6k, you don’t have to force him in though and he may not be necessary for the optimal lineup if cheaper options come through.
If you have the ability to pay up, I think he’s a relatively strong option based on finishing metrics. It’s a decent matchup for him to hit a ceiling but he could also be a bit overvalued with limited tape on Pulyaev. I don’t mind moderate exposure here but Duncan is still a bit boom/bust and I’m never going to force it at 9.6k.
Pulyaev doesn’t interest me a whole lot at 6.6k though I think he could compete.
He looks pretty poor in general but he’s grappled in the past and he’s also thrown strikes at a high rate in the past. He has win conditions because of it. I think he’s going to be outclassed here though and he’s ultimately a big dog, so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to roster him with any urgency.
I only consider Pulayev a dart throw/leverage target this week. He’s +850 to win ITD and I’d simply rather put my money elsewhere. Sprinkle him in if you like with a large portfolio but I likely won’t end up with much exposure myself.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Duncan by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Shauna Bannon vs. Puja Tomar
Fight Odds: Bannon -156, Tomar +135
Odds to end ITD: +350
DraftKings Salaries: Bannon 8.8k, Tomar 7.4k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Shauna Bannon’s a newer addition to the strawweight division, who bypassed the Contender Series back in 2023 and picked up her first promotional win last time out – she’s 1-1 in the UFC and 6-1 as a pro. Puja Tomar also bypassed the Contender Series and debuted last year, and is the first Indian female to enter the UFC. She’s 1-0 in the UFC and 9-4 as a pro.
The striking component:
Bannon comes from a taekwondo and kickboxing background where she holds multiple Irish and European titles. She’ll occasionally switch stances to southpaw to throw body or head kicks, but primarily fights orthodox.
Her work rate is above-average and has quick hands within the pocket, but she can be a bit “rock em sock em” at times. The primary issues I have with her are that she moves very linearly, and her head essentially never moves off the center line. So, she’s there to be hit in the pocket and girls can come forward on her.
But she hasn’t exactly fought a murderer’s row of competition, so she has been able to best the majority of her opponents standing to date.
However, she fought Brasil in her debut where she struggled with range counters and impactful strikes coming back her way. She officially outlanded Brasil and had a better 3rd round but came on a bit too late.
Most recently, she had a relatively competitive scrap with Ardelean where the head strikes were essentially evens but Bannon outlanded her at distance 73 to 50.
Overall, despite her accolades, she’s really nothing special but can outstrike lower tier girls.
Tomar’s a shorter/stockier 115er who comes from a wushu background, which shows in her style. She stands southpaw and looks primarily to fight from the outside where she’ll be more proactive with her kicks, targeting all three levels of her opponents.
She doesn’t have great hands overall but has shown a decent jab/check hook and will occasionally flurry in with a barrage of punches.
Her general style reminds me a bit of Veronica Hardy where she can throw in higher volume if opponents are looking to pressure and force more action, but she’s also content to pot shot if opponents look to stay in the mid-range and have her type of fight.
She’s brought some element of danger as well with six of her nine pro wins coming via KO/TKO, but against a lower level of competition.
Defensively, given her style, she’s generally been able to control the exchanges in her fights but we did see her eat more shots in her debut against Amanda. Tomar ultimately outlanded her 94 to 79 at distance but was outlanded to the head 47 to 29 which is something that will need to be monitored going forward, especially with how much she plays the back foot – it can produce negative optics even if she’s getting the better of the exchanges.
Overall, Tomar’s a respectable striker by lower tier 115 lb. standards but she may struggle with opponents who can cut her off and turn fights scrappier.
How it plays out: The striking’s tricky here as both girls come from range striking backgrounds and prefer to kick more than punch. I’d anticipate that Tomar will look to take the back foot here with Bannon playing the aggressor, which is a pro and con. Bannon is more reliable to throw punches but we did see her struggle with the outside/counter game of Brasil, which is how Tomar is going to look to fight her. Granted, Brasil is a bit more established of a talent and is much longer than Tomar which needs to be noted. But I still think the counters for Tomar are going to be there and she has more sting on her shots. The striking seems variable to me between optics, volume and round sequencing in terms of who gets the better of it over 15 minutes and how the rounds are scored.
The wrestling/grappling component:
Despite Bannon’s striking base, she’s a BJJ purple belt and we’ve seen a decent amount of her on the ground as she can initiate wrestling sequences.
She’s pretty reliant on the body lock to get her TDs but has found a healthy amount of success on lower tier opponents. On top, she hasn’t shown to be much of a submission threat outside of transitioning to triangles, but she has no pro wins via submission. Bannon does have some good ground-and-pound though so she will remain active in top positions and can rack up minutes there or finish girls off.
However, she’s been taken down a handful of times and I don’t like her propensity to play guard when grounded, despite looking to throw things up. She probably would have finished one of her triangle sequences against Vera if she just pulled the arm across, but she didn’t. It just kind of shows how green she is as a submission grappler.
Wrestling/physicality against Brasil played a factor in her most recent loss as well, where she got taken down twice on three attempts, conceding a little over three minutes of control. Ardelean also went 2/4 on TDs, racking up six minutes of control.
Overall, similar to the striking, she has the capabilities to beat girls without much semblance of a ground game but is going to run into some issues now at the UFC level.
As noted, Tomar comes from a wushu background which incorporates some grappling but she’s only a blue belt in BJJ and the floor has been where she’s severely struggled in her pro career.
She’s been finished on the floor in all four of her losses – 3 subs and 1 GNP stoppage.
In her defense, they’ve all come earlier on in her career with the last loss being five years ago. But she’s struggled with her TDD and has given up bad positions with regularity.
It hasn’t been as much of the case in recent years though and she stuffed all three shots from Amanda in the last fight.
Offensively, she doesn’t pursue much but when she has, it’s been a lot of head and arm throw stuff where when she’s gotten on top. She often loses position or the opponents are able to kick her off and the fights restart on the feet.
Overall, it’s hard to say to what extent Tomar’s improved on the ground in recent years but based on historics, the floor projects to be where she’ll primarily struggle at the UFC level.
How it plays out: Both girls have had their documented struggles with TDD but I’d ultimately give Bannon more upside as she’s had more top based success and is the more capable submission grappler of the two, who will attack despite having no submission wins. She’s still not a very good wrestler though and if Tomar’s TDD has improved, we could very well just get a striking fight.
Low-level women’s fight here that I don’t have a strong opinion on. But for what I just referenced in giving Bannon more grappling upside, she’ll be my pick to win. I still consider Tomar a live dog this week though.
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On DraftKings, I really struggle to care about this one but of the two, I’ll probably end up with some shares of Tomar based on pricing.
Bannon is priced up to 8.8k and just feels too expensive. My fades didn’t all work out last week but Bannon feels closer to a fade for me than anything else.
If this fight plays out on the feet, I don’t see how she gets there. Bannon scored 76 in her last decision win and she would have scored 68 if she beat Brasil. She may land a decent number of strikes but it just doesn’t matter from a scoring standing point.
The way for Bannon to find the optimal is with a KO, or with a submission. I don’t really think a KO standing is in play, and she’s only +600 to win ITD anyway which is awful. The submission is more interesting to me as Tomar has looked awful at points on the mat in her career, but as referenced above, that was many years ago and Bannon also sucks as a wrestler.
My expectation is that Bannon won’t wrestle much and won’t have any real success. But I suppose it’s at least one path to consider if you’re looking for reasons to target her as a contrarian option. Bannon will be super low owned this week but outside of some contrarian grappling angle, I don’t see much merit to her and I’ll likely just fade with a limited portfolio.
Tomar at 7.4k is in play based on pricing.
She’ll make for a better cash option than a tournament option as she does carry win equity at +135 to win, but her ceiling just isn’t that high.
In her debut win, Tomar only scored 69 DK points and I don’t think her upside is much greater here. She’s also +600 to win ITD which is awful and she has less grappling upside than Bannon.
The only real positive is that she can win. Perhaps 70 points is enough on this slate. I could definitely see the cheap dogs losing, so it’s quite possible Tomar is the cheapest dog on the slate to win. She could be optimal because of it.
I’m not going to play a ton of her because her ceiling sucks, but I don’t mind secondary shares based on win equity and pricing. She also has general floor merit in a fight that’s -500 to go the distance. Again, her ceiling seems very poor so if she projects to be popular, pivoting away makes some sense.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Tomar by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Nathan Fletcher vs. Caolan Loughran
Fight Odds: Fletcher -109, Loughran -105
Odds to end ITD: +140
DraftKings Salaries: Fletcher 8.4k, Loughran 7.8k
Weight Class: 135
*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe
Caolan Loughran bypassed the Contender Series as he got the UFC call as a short notice fill-in back in 2023 on the heels of winning the Cage Warriors title – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 9-2 as a pro. Nathan Fletcher’s a fellow Cage Warriors alum who was a cast member on the TUF 32 season. He lost his first round matchup and was bounced out of the competition but also suffered an injury in the fight where the UFC decided to sign him later that year anyway. He made good on his debut back in September – he’s 9-1 as a pro.
The striking component:
We didn’t see much of Loughran on the feet in his regional days, but we have seen more in his last four fights.
He’s more of a “wrestle-boxer” type as a stocky 135er who likes to mix it up in the lip of the pocket with his jabs and hooks that were eventually able to hurt Hazan in his last regional fight, finishing via TKO. But he’s not a guy who gets his hands back up after throwing all the time and his general striking guard is loose.
Despite the final result of that fight, he got hit a good amount and his face turned a peach red after just a round.
Against Lapilus, he struggled with the 5” reach and straight shots of Lapilus to where he got outlanded 76 to 44 at distance. Loughran definitely landed some clean shots in there as well, but you could tell there were levels on the feet. In the defense of Loughran, he had a last-minute opponent switch and Lapilus isn’t an easy debut given his experience and skill level.
But he had a good showing against Pacheco, outlanding him 140 to 88 and was able to hurt him at multiple points in the fight – then again, the concern is that he got hit 88 times. He most recently just got outstruck on the outside by Hadley who was quicker to the target and didn’t stand in front of him.
Loughran does appear to be a tough guy but I can see him struggling with more explosive, longer parties at the UFC level going forward.
Fletcher’s a grappler by base and as a result, all his fights have devolved into grappling matches so despite having a decent amount of footage to view, there isn’t a ton to analyze on the feet.
In the bit we have, he doesn’t seem very comfortable standing.
I thought his hands looked a bit better a few fights back against Giordano but by and large, he’s really only using his striking to try to set up his grappling in which I don’t think he even does that very well.
He’s generally lower volume at range to where he’s just feinting a jab or throwing an overhand right to then shoot a TD. But he can be pushed backwards at times and isn’t stringing together any real combinations.
He only has one pro win via strikes but that was a positional TKO, so he also hasn’t shown any semblance of power standing either.
His lone pro loss came against Wooding in a title fight that he was winning but got caught late with a knee coming in to where he then got head kicked and finished off with punches – I’ve seen him get rocked with a knee coming in before as well so it’s not the first time it happened.
Overall, I haven’t seen anything to suggest that Fletcher’s going to be much of a threat standing to the guys he’s fighting on the feet, barring bigger evolutions from him going forward – he’s only 26 years old though so there is scope for optimism.
How it plays out: Fletcher will realize a slight size advantage and has a decent jab that will probably land on Loughran but he’s not as sophisticated on the feet as Hadley, who’s also a southpaw and has more weapons/power. Loughran should have success with his pressure to get off his own combinations. He also has better volume and more critical hit upside.
The wrestling/grappling component:
I’m unsure of Loughran’s official background but he’s best as a wrestler/grappler.
He’s shown good entries to TDs and wrestles to the legs particularly well with traditionally good accuracy on his shots.
When on top, he’s shown good control components and passing abilities to either get into mount or take the back. You can tell that the guy’s very methodical and processed in his approach to where he’ll accrue high numbers of control time per TD.
He did struggle to ground against Lapilus in his debut, going 2/11 but he still won the 2nd round on control and could have potentially won the 1st if he was able to secure earlier.
He went 3/4 against Pacheco, racking up nearly five minutes of control but he really struggled to ground Hadley which I found concerning, considering some of Hadley’s defensive wrestling struggles.
But six of his nine pro wins have come via finish with two RNCs and four GNP stoppages. Most guys just haven’t had much of an answer for him when he’s been able to secure his TDs.
Defensively, he’s only been shot on a couple times and has shown good defense and scrambling abilities off of slips.
He did get stuck in a tighter high elbow guillotine against Shanks but fought hands well and worked out of the submission relatively quickly – impressive because those turned over gilly’s can be tricky to get out of, but he remained composed.
Overall, I largely like what I’ve seen on the floor from Loughran so far but the Hadley fight still leaves a sour taste in my mouth – maybe his wrestling success is just a product of the competition level he’s fought thus far – time will tell.
Fletcher’s a grappler by base where the large bulk of his fights have gone the same.
He’ll rinse and repeat TDs to where he can either grind guys out or find his positions to eventually submit.
But despite his career success in this realm, I really don’t think he’s a great technical wrestler or grappler to be completely honest.
Fletcher more so falls into the hustler/attritional type grappler category where he’s going to just overwhelm opponents who don’t have the capabilities to keep him at bay. But his general open mat wrestling is poor to where the large bulk of his TDs are coming from body locks or wrestle rides.
Opponents have been able to work up under him though relatively consistently, and he’s lost position trying to advance in numerous fights. At the same time, I don’t want to downplay the persistent nature of his game because it is a difficult style to deal with.
But he’ll probably get shut out by better defensive wrestlers in the UFC.
Lastly, he ultimately dropped his fight on TUF in the quarter finals where he fought a black belt and was outgrappled for the majority of minutes there, which gives some proof of concept to what was just referenced – it was a 145er though and the leg injury was a thing so I don’t know how I feel about it.
Overall, Fletcher’s ground success going forward will be entirely matchup dependent.
How it plays out: The floor’s tricky to analyze given both guys career successes there but also a somewhat lacking defensive sample. Obviously, we’ve seen a few instances that are more concerning for Fletcher with the Ofli fight on TUF, (once again, I don’t know how to evaluate that post) but he also got swept by Ramaska twice last fight despite ultimately winning on the floor. Loughran profiles to be more difficult to take down/hold down than Fletcher but I do think Fletcher probably has better jiu-jitsu.
Interesting fight between two guys that primarily want to grapple but it’s one of those situations where I think we could see more extended striking time. With that, I ultimately favor Loughran on the feet and he may have more grappling upside as well. I still hate Loughran’s defense but I like him as a prospect more than Fletcher to be honest. I think Loughran gets back in the win column Saturday but there are some interesting fight dynamics.
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On DraftKings, this is another tough one because although Fletcher profiles as the higher upside fighter, I think he’s being overvalued.
I personally don’t see why Fletcher should be the favorite here. He’s a fine offensive grappler but he’s somewhat one-dimensional. He also got easily beaten by Kaan Ofli on TUF, who outstruck him and took him down as well. That’s a concern in hindsight.
I actually bet Fletcher in his debut over Ramaska and I was pretty high on him in that fight. But that was an extremely binary matchup and Ramaska honestly sucks. I was pretty confident Fletcher would take him down and sub him.
Loughran is many, many levels above Ramaska as a talent. I have some issues with Loughran as well, primarily in what we saw against Hadley. I was shocked he couldn’t take Hadley down and even losing the striking is concerning. But Loughran has taken rounds off of Taylor Lapilus and he’s shown more striking upside than Fletcher.
Maybe Fletcher can compete with Loughran on the feet but I haven’t seen much from Fletcher to be confident in that. Maybe he can take Loughran down but Loughran looks like the better wrestler outright to me.
Fletcher is priced at 8.4k and is coming off the strong 107 point win against Ramaksa, which could make him popular here. I don’t really want to play him based on the matchup and the betting line is moving toward Loughran, however, if Fletcher wins, it will surely come with takedowns. He seems semi-grappling dependent to me and maybe he can land 4-5 takedowns over 15 minutes to edge out a win. Maybe he has some sub upside.
Fletcher is only +375 to win ITD but his grappling dependency makes him an alright target. I really don’t love this matchup for him but I do like that he is persistent, and persistence can lead to success. He’s a fine secondary target in my opinion based on his fighting style, and I think he has moderate upside. But I’ll definitely be capping my exposure because this matchup doesn’t profile as one where he’ll actually be able to land many takedowns.
Loughran at 7.8k has more of a ceiling concern, though I like his price value.
He may even be the favorite by fight night, but I don’t think that would make him super popular, coming off a weird loss with only one win in three fights. Still, it’s worth noting that he attempted eight takedowns in his last loss, so it’s not like he’s abandoned that path. And Fletcher can be taken down.
I could see Loughran landing a few takedowns and 80 significant strikes in a win. That’s still potentially not enough and would only score in the mid-80s. If he can earn a fair amount of control, I suppose it could lead to a 100 point score.
Loughran also has the better ITD line here at +265 though I don’t think he’s very likely to win ITD.
It’s another tricky spot because he’s priced in a range where 80-90 very likely isn’t enough. In a 50/50 fight on paper, Loughran might just not be a great tournament play. He may prefer to strike where he thinks he has the advantage. So I don’t think he’s a must.
At the same time, he has clear win equity, and is priced below the mid-range. His ITD upside rates out well on paper and he wrestles with some urgency historically. There’s still clearly a path to a decent score. He’ll be another solid secondary target all things considered but I think this is a difficult matchup to be very confident in from a fantasy perspective.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Loughran by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Guram Kutateladze vs. Kaue Fernandes
Fight Odds: Kutateladze -422, Fernandes +325
Odds to end ITD: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Kutateladze 9.4k, Fernandes 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
Coming off a dominant first-round knockout over Mohammad Yahya, Kaue Fernandes will get a huge step up in competition against Guram Kutateladze this weekend.
Kaue Fernandes is 9-2 professionally at age 30, with five wins by knockout and two by submission.
He lost his UFC debut to Marc Diakiese in a somewhat competitive fight in 2023. I really did not like that performance though. Fernandes flashed some nice kicks, which I think is one of the best parts of his game, but he just wasn’t able to produce much offense.
He then got taken down a few times and was controlled for nearly nine minutes. Fernandes is a black belt in jiu-jitsu but he doesn’t look super dangerous, and both subs on his record were guard armbars against terrible opponents. When he gets on top, Fernandes has more upside.
He did land one takedown against Diakiese but wasn’t able to do much with it. While I think his takedown game is acceptable, it’s tough to believe he can make it work against good competition. And clearly there is some weakness to his defensive game, where despite the BJJ pedigree, he can be held down and neutralized.
On the feet is where Fernandes should excel. He’s had some brutal KOs on the regional scene. His two fights prior to entering the UFC were a first-round head kick and a first-round body kick. He’s pretty explosive and powerful with those legs.
In his most recent outing, we saw more of that. Fernandes chewed up the legs of Yahya before landing a head strike that put him down late in the first round. It was a completely dominant performance, but it’s also worth noting that Yahya is among the very worst in this division, and Yahya barely attempted any strikes.
What’s more concerning is that prior to his brutal regional KOs, Fernandes lost a decision in a similar fashion to that of Diakiese. He had some moments early, but slowed down and couldn’t produce offense.
It’s not that Fernandes is completely boom or bust, but he clearly gets tired and just doesn’t have a great baseline of offensive production. He literally only landed 23 significant strikes in 15 minutes against Diakiese, and still almost won the split decision.
As of now, I’m open to the idea of Fernandes being a dangerous fighter early on. I think he has knockout equity and perhaps he has grappling equity against a lower tier of competition.
I am highly suspect of this guy over 15 minutes though, both in terms of ability to produce total offense, effective offense, and also in his ability to defend. He’s picked up a couple decisions on the regionals but ultimately I need to see more of him before I am comfortable in him winning clean rounds.
He will take on Guram Kutateladze this weekend, who wasn’t viewed as a strong prospect coming into the UFC, but he has performed very well against Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov, among others, who are two high-end talents.
Most recently, he’s coming off the competitive win over Vucenic which may age well as well.
Kutateladze did slip up against Elvis Brener in 2023, as the two threw down early in the fight. Kutateladze failed to finish him, and got rocked and knocked out late in the fight. He also got dropped by Vucenic early, so perhaps that’s something to note, despite being able to come back and win the final two rounds.
I’m not going to put too much stock in either of his losses, as Guram still rates out pretty well in all areas and there’s just a lot of variance in striking exchanges.
I watched him go toe to toe with Ismagulov, and he currently lands 3.95 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.95 per minute as well. He’s a strong kicker, technical, with some power, and he should be able to keep up with a lot of the division on a minute per minute basis.
I also watched him give up five takedowns to Gamrot, but defend more than 10 others and scramble his way free on countless occasions. While he perhaps isn’t elite on first-level takedown defense, he seems very hard to control and submit. He proved that by defending all of Vucenic’s takedown attempts as well.
My biggest complaint about Kutateladze to this point is that he just fights competitively. In his three decisions, two have been splits, and the other was ultra-competitive too. The fight he looked the best in, he lost.
So both he and his opponents have had moments in every single fight, and I’m not sure that is going to change. He’s skilled enough to win rounds and compete in all areas, but probably not skilled enough to run away with fights, and he hasn’t proven much finishing capability either.
This is an interesting matchup because the dynamic seems clear. Fernandes will be dangerous early, but Kutateladze rates out far better over the duration.
If the fight goes three rounds, I have difficulty seeing Fernandes winning it. Maybe he can suck Kutateladze into a slow paced fight where the two land a few strikes, and Fernandes wins some moments.
Otherwise, I think it’s quite likely Kutateladze does more on the feet and is more consistent, and also has the more clear path to top time. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he landed multiple takedowns, and held Fernandes down for many minutes at a time.
He might have to fend off some submissions, but I’d still favor the top player in that situation, which should be Kutateladze.
However, Fernandes may have a shot here. He may be able to hurt Kutateladze. He is awkward and throws hard. There is a lot of variance and we’ve now seen Kutateladze dropped in back-to-back fights. I actually do give Fernandes some KO equity in this spot.
I just expect it to come early or not come at all, and ultimately I can’t pick that outcome. But I would not at all be surprised if Fernandes had a strong first round and had a big moment or two.
I don’t think he can fight at a high pace for 15 minutes and I think Kutateladze eventually finds a way to get on top of Fernandes though, probably riding out the latter rounds.
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On DraftKings, Kutateladze is priced at 9.4k which is very expensive.
He does have a clear path to wrestling equity but I’m not sold it’s enough. For comparison sake, Diakese landed three takedowns, 65 total strikes and accrued nearly 9 minutes of control, which would have given him a score in the low 80s.
I like the potential for top time though. It does give Kutateladze a reasonable floor, and a path for upside. But Fernandes has never lost ITD and Kutateladze hasn’t won ITD since 2019. He’s only +165 to win ITD here and I think a decision is more likely.
I’m not fully against playing some Kutateladze, but I don’t think I can prioritize him. I am worried about the pacing of this fight, and his finishing equity. The combination will make it difficult for me to pay up for much Kutateladze this week.
I don’t think he will be super popular though. As a semi-contrarian target, he is viable. I would rather play some other 9k options if I had to choose though, simply for finishing equity.
Fernandes at 6.8k is a viable punt in my opinion and I’d probably want a couple of shares.
I don’t think he’s going to win and I don’t really like him as a talent, but I do think he has early upside in fights and I worry a bit about Kutateladze getting hurt in back-to-back fights. There’s clearly a path to the KO, or a random early sub, even if it’s a small one. He’s +575 to win ITD.
Fernandes is super cheap at 6.8k which is why I’d be willing to take a couple of shots. I could see him getting some love coming off a 115 point score, so I don’t expect to be above the field here. I don’t mind having a few shares with a larger portfolio though, playing into the variance of striking exchanges a little bit.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kutateladze by Decision (Confidence=Medium)