UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg (3/29/25)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

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MAIN CARD

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg

Fight Odds: Moreno -238, Erceg +199

Odds to end ITD: +175

DraftKings Salaries: Moreno 8.6k, Erceg 7.6k

Weight Class: 125

The former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno is back in action this weekend, facing off with recent title contender Steve Erceg.

I find it interesting that Moreno is a sizable favorite, and although I’m not necessarily disputing that fact, had this matchup been made six months ago, it’s quite possible that Moreno would have been the underdog.

Moreno had suffered another loss at the hands of Brandon Royval, after falling short against Alexandre Pantoja in the matchup prior, and indicated he was simply exhausted from the championship grind. He’d spent three years and more than an hour and a half inside of the Octagon with Deiveson Figureido, and that clearly took a toll.

However, some rest and a return to the cage against Amir Albazi seemed to do Moreno well, and he clearly won that matchup as expected, outlanding Albazi easily over the 25 minute duration.

Erceg on the other hand had an incredible run since entering the UFC in 2023. He defeated three opponents before getting a big call-up to fight for the title against Pantoja in 2024, and Erceg nearly took home the belt.

Despite the competitive loss, Erceg seemed destined to become the champion, and many expected a quick bounce back against Kai Kara-France in August, but unfortunately, Erceg was sent packing quickly as KKF knocked him out in the first round.

Now, Erceg’s future seems more in question. Can he hold up against the better opponents in this division? Was his early run a fluke? Clearly, the public has newly installed confidence in Moreno but I still think there’s a good chance Erceg gives him a tough test.

I originally thought that Erceg was destined to be dependent on his grappling, which I think he’s since proven was a poor assumption. Erceg has shown a competent boxing game, where he’s able to work behind a jab, with power and technique to boot, and that will at least keep him live on the feet for extended periods.

He’s shown some power components, and earned a brutal KO victory against Matt Schnell in 2024 which partially showcases his power, though hurting Schnell is not a difficult task.

Erceg is landing 4.37 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.22 per minute with a 53 percent defensive rate. He keeps his head a little too upright and still for my liking, and he can be hit because of it, but he seems tough and semi-durable as well. I don’t think it’s fair to assume he can’t take a punch, just because he was hurt by KKF. However, he’d also been hurt in the past and these hittable tendencies have shown up on his tape even on the regionals.

So at this point, I am curious to see more. I don’t think Erceg is necessarily going to have chin issues but it is possible that he will get hit pretty hard again based on his defensive tendencies, and I’m not sold he can take the damage.

As far as his grappling, Erceg is a solid submission grappler and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He’s landed 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes and is pretty strong at taking the back.

I really liked what he showed defensively against Costa as well, who dove on a fair few submission attempts. Erceg was able to scramble very nicely into advantageous positions, which gives me a decent bit of confidence that he won’t get stuck in some dumb submission and not know how to fight out of it.

Pantoja was able to take him down nine times on 19 attempts though, and controlled him for more than eight minutes. Pantoja is a really tough challenge so I don’t hold that against Erceg either, but it was clear he was at a disadvantage in that matchup.

Now he defends at 60 percent overall, and again I’ll be curious to see more. I think he can be taken down but he won’t be easy to hold down or submit.

Moreno is just a tough and well-rounded fighter, and that’s why I’ve generally been a fan of his in recent years.

He’s been through countless wars and has held up, though he can be hit and occasionally hurt as well, he’s never been knocked out. And his striking metrics are solid, where he lands 3.99 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.53 per minute with a 60 percent defensive rate.

Moreno can be a bit inconsistent with his fight IQ and volume, but we’ve seen him reach solid totals in the past of 132, 112, and 147 significant strikes over 25 minutes. It’s certainly enough to compete over the duration and he has power components in his game as well.

I also like Moreno’s grappling. He lands 1.59 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 64 percent. Few will be able to control him on the mat, though Pantoja managed 8:26 of control on six takedowns landed.

Moreno can be a threat on top too. He’s a solid submission grappler and has a submission win over Figueiredo himself.

He’s just a super tough out. You can fight competitively with Moreno but you’re not going to have many distinct edges over him in any area of the game, and that’s going to give him significant win equity in most matchups.

I do find this matchup to be a much, much tougher test for Moreno than his previous one against Albazi though, and I think there’s a good chance it’s competitive.

If the fight plays out on the feet, I think it will be close. I favor Moreno but I favor him because he’s shown enough consistency over the years in five-round fights. He’ll throw volume, and he’s tough as hell. Erceg can absolutely keep up with him, but Erceg has some more question marks and potentially has a durability disadvantage as well.

Purely on the numbers though, I don’t see why Erceg couldn’t win. He hits hard and rounds likely just come down to optics. We could get a war here. I trust Moreno to survive a war more than I trust Erceg, but rounds could be split or close.

On the ground, I also favor Moreno but not by a large margin. Moreno isn’t super consistent with his wrestling and I’m not sure he will make that a major part of his game plan. But he is averaging 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and I do think he can take Erceg down.

The question is whether he can hold Erceg down and submit him, and my guess is no. Perhaps a minute here or there but I doubt Moreno puts Erceg in real danger on the mat.

Conversely, Erceg may be able to take Moreno down but I doubt he puts him in real danger either, and I would expect Moreno to scramble up pretty quickly.

This is a tricky fight. Moreno can cover his price the easiest if he just knocks Erceg out, but that is tough to predict. He could also cover if he has ground domination equity but that seems unreasonable to predict as well. Erceg is at some slight disadvantages technically but if he doesn’t get horribly hurt, I don’t see why he can’t compete with Moreno per round and make this a very close fight on the cards.

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On DraftKings, Moreno is priced up to 8.6k and he’ll make for a solid target.

Primarily, Moreno will rate out well from a win equity sense. He is pushing -250 to win which is very strong for 8.6k as a main event fighter. He has some finishing equity at +215 ITD and some wrestling equity, and he could score very well even in a decision.

At the same time, Moreno has risk of missing the optimal. Primarily, this would come if he chooses to strike and wins a decision. He literally just beat Albazi up, landed 132 sig. strikes in five rounds, and scored 83 DK points. That’s not enough at 8.6k.

In fights prior, he would have scored 96 in a win over Royval and 125 in a win over Pantoja. He has multiple high-90s finishes but also an 80-point finish mixed in as well.

It probably just comes down to wrestling. If Moreno can mix in three takedowns, you’re going to want exposure to him because that 80 point baseline turns into a 95 point baseline with additional upside. With zero takedowns, you may literally be dependent on a knockout for Moreno to hit the optimal.

Moreno will probably project for about his average which is 1.5 takedowns, and overall he’ll rate out as a strong play with an exceptionally strong floor in a win. He has a path to a ceiling as well. There is risk here without the guarantee of a finish and no guarantee of wrestling.

Considering Moreno should be extremely popular, it’s another ME spot where it may not be a terrible idea to mix in lineups that fade this fight. If Moreno wins a competitive, striking based decision, he may score in the high 80s or low 90s and miss the optimal.

Generally speaking, I’m likely going to have moderate exposure to Moreno dude to his floor/ceiling combination and his price tag. He makes for an even better target in cash games and smaller field contests where you may not need the perfect lineup.

Erceg at 7.6k is a pretty solid option as well.

He should be the leverage target here, and that interests me a lot. If the fight goes the distance, which it’s projected to at -215, I am expecting it to be competitive which means he has real win equity. Apparently sneaky win equity too given his odds to win which are only +200.

I don’t think Erceg has much of a shot to win ITD though, and I wouldn’t count on that with a +700 ITD line. However, he could mix in a couple of takedowns and like Moreno, reach a solid result over 25 minutes.

In his loss against Panojta, Erceg would have scored 89 DK points which is not great, but it’s still fine for the price. Scoring around 90 points seems reasonable as well for this matchup. I suppose that has a shot to miss the optimal as well but at 7.6k, I’d be willing to have secondary exposure regardless.

I think Erceg is being a touch undervalued in this matchup as a whole. He may not have an elite ceiling but he has a very strong floor in a win, and his additional matchup leverage and ME status make him a pretty solid secondary target, who I wouldn’t mind being a bit overweight to if the field is scared off.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Moreno by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober

Fight Odds: Dober -115, Torres +100

Odds to end ITD: -700

DraftKings Salaries: Torres 8.2k, Dober 8k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have nearly guaranteed violence here as UFC veteran Drew Dober will be taking on Mexican fighter Manuel Torres.

Drew Dober is a pretty solid fighter. He is decently well-rounded and always fights hard. His strength is his striking. He lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.25 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. Those aren’t incredible metrics. However, he has fought some good guys, is battle tested, and is definitely a solid striker in this weight class. 

Dober fights at a high pace on the feet. Dober has quick straight punches and packs some decent power. Eight of his last 10 wins have actually come by knockout.

His other two wins came by decision where he landed 60 and 145 significant strikes, respectively. I like Dober on the feet personally. He has KO equity and has volume upside as well. 

Dober is also tough as nails and has only been knocked out twice in 41 professional fights. That is pretty impressive durability given the battles that Dober has been in.

I still kind of worry about Dober getting knocked out again though. He was knocked out against Matt Frevola. Furthermore, both Riddell and McKinney hurt him in recent fights. Both of those guys are dangerous so it wasn’t an awful look or anything. However, I do think the fact that Dober is simply hittable is what concerns me. Dober did lose by doctor stoppage in his last fight against Jean Silva as well. However, he wasn’t actually put out which is honestly kind of impressive given how much power Silva has shown since. 

So if you really think about it, Dober has only been put out once, which was against Frevola. So I don’t think Dober’s durability is in code red territory like a Bobby Green or something. I still think his durability is probably decent. However, it isn’t as bullet proof as it once was and he is getting hurt more consistently now.

Dober is an okay wrestler. He lands 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes and can take down weak grapplers. He sneakily attempts about five takedowns per fight but is always fighting good wrestlers, so he hasn’t dominated with grappling for a long time. 

Dober defends takedowns at 56 percent. He has also been submitted four times in the UFC which is a concern. I do think Dober is at least competent defensively as a grappler though. He scrambles up off from his back pretty well.

Dober will be taking on Manuel Torres. I have always been extremely skeptical of Torres.

Torres is a Mexican fighter who fights out of the same camp as Brandon Moreno. Torres is 15-3 with 14 first round finishes, fighting absolutely awful competition. Most of his wins on the regionals have actually come by submission. He was even submitted by kneebar in round one in one of the regional fights that I found. 

These are really tough fighters to trust. His cardio is unknown, and even his skillset is unknown. Generally, these fighters tend to be bad more often than good. However, there are some outliers so it is tough to know.

Torres made his UFC debut against Frank Camacho in 2022. He aggressively bullied Camacho on the feet and landed a knockout in round one, and landed 34 significant strikes. The performance does not show me much, but it at least shows me that Torres is aggressive and can hurt people, especially early.

Torres then fought Nikolas Motta. He actually got tagged easily by Motta a couple of times and was bleeding in the nose and mouth area. It was kind of a bad look for Torres. Then Torres landed one of the nastiest elbow knockouts in 2023. The fight only took place for two minutes.

Then Torres fought Chris Duncan. Torres got hurt on literally the first exchange. The two then clinched up sloppily and traded some knees and sloppy takedown attempts. Torres then ended a pretty sloppy takedown, got the back, and submitted Duncan. It was a very odd exchange and I honestly wasn’t all that impressed.

All those performances tell me is that Torres is a pretty dangerous guy, but that he probably has holes especially in extended fights.

Then Torres fought Ignacio Bahamondes at the Sphere in his most recent fight. The fight was pretty uneventful early with Torres being the aggressor. Torres was then dropped badly and later knocked out. I picked Bahamondes as a dog in that fight as I didn’t trust Torres in extended fights and still don’t. 

I honestly still want to see more of Torres though. I still haven’t even really seen him in an extended fight. It wasn’t like he got absolutely exposed against Bahamondes. Torres just got hurt with a big shot. However, it doesn’t give me much confidence in his durability at all.

I honestly don’t even know what Torres’ primary skill set or game plan is at this point. I am going to guess he will look to strike or just be aggressive early like he was against Camacho and Motta. Whatever happens after that is tough to know. I don’t know anything about his defensive grappling or cardio really at this point.

I am just going to pick the proven UFC veteran again in Dober here. My guess is these guys will just go to war in round one and the fight will end somewhat early. Dober can be hurt, yes. However, Dober is much more proven in extended fights and has good cardio. 

Dober’s durability still isn’t bad either and he may have a major advantage in durability against Torres. Dober is also seriously dangerous himself and if he lands consistently on Torres, Torres is probably in big trouble.

I honestly just think Torres is going to come out and try to kill Dober. If it doesn’t work, I think Dober will probably just prove to be the better fighter and eventually finish Torres. I still do not know much about Torres but I have not liked the way he has responded to getting hit in the Bahamondes fight or other fights. 

So although this fight has a ton of variance and anything can happen, I think Dober has a more proven track record and may honestly have an advantage everywhere. Dober is the reasonable pick in my eyes.

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On DraftKings, this is probably the best fight on the slate to target and I expect it to be extremely chalky with an ITD line sitting at -700.

The fight is an essential pick’em though Dober has moved to the favorite at 8k, and that probably means he’ll draw more attention than Torres at 8.2k.

I think the easiest call is splitting your action here. You want exposure to this fight and you want the winner of this fight in lots of lineups. I do lean toward Dober, but I expect the field will lean toward Dober as well. If I had to take a stand, that’s who it would be on.

All of Torres’ fights have ended in round one in the UFC though and Dober is getting hurt more consistently. Losing to Frevola by RD 1 KO is a seriously bad look and McKinney almost finished him as well. Torres could hurt him.

You can also try to play the leverage angle and load up on Torres. I’m just not sure how much leverage he will be.

Honestly, it’s possible this fight isn’t as highly owned as it should be. Torres coming off a KO loss and Dober coming off a KO loss makes their respective box scores look mediocre, and that could slightly affect ownership. If anything, I’d probably aim to be overweight to the field.

If the fight extends and it burns me, which is possible, so be it. The Under 1.5 Rounds prop is -170 and if it ends inside of two rounds I think the winner is optimal at these prices. Dober is +105 ITD and Torres is +120 ITD. Both rate out extremely well for upside and I am expecting a war.

I’ll likely have moderate-heavy exposure to Dober personally, and moderate exposure to Torres. It should be a phenomenal fight for as long as it lasts.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dober by KO, RD 1 (Confidence=Low)

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Fight Odds: Pyfer -317, Gastelum +255

Odds to end ITD: -125

DraftKings Salaries: Pyfer 9.3k, Gastelum 6.9k

Weight Class: 185

We should have a fun middleweight scrap here between future contender Joe Pyfer and longtime veteran Kelvin Gastelum.

Pyfer is 13-3 professionally with nine wins by knockout and one win by submission, and he’s won each of his four UFC victories inside the distance, most recently finishing Marc-Andre Barriualt in the second round.

Pyfer is a good athlete, and a physical one. He’s been able to showcase his power both on the regional scene and in the UFC, which I would consider one of his better attributes.

He’s also pretty well-rounded. Despite the striking success, Pyfer is a base grappler who can wrestle well, and carries submission upside on the mat. We saw him take Alhassan down a few times, get on top, and lock up the arm-triangle in round two in 2023.

However, when Pyfer finally took a real step up in competition in his first main event against Jack Hermansson, he lost.

Pyfer still performed well in that fight, winning the first two rounds before tiring out and losing the final three. Hermansson is a veteran as well and played a much better long game than Pyfer, outlanding him 121 to 92 in total.

It wasn’t the kind of performance that made me think Pyfer is a fraud, or anything like that, but I did pick him to lose as a big favorite so I was pleased.

At the very least, Gastelum is the best fighter Pyfer has faced since Hermansson, and I’ll be curious to see how he deals with the challenge.

Gastelum has been around forever, making his UFC debut in 2013 when he beat Uriah Hall to win The Ultimate Fighter. He’s had a very strong career overall, nearly beating Adesanya for the title in 2019, but he’s also had some rough patches as well.

Primarily, it’s Gastelum’s weight. He is not a middleweight and I do not like him fighting at middleweight. He is 5’9” tall and will give up five inches in height and another four inches in reach to Pyfer. Frankly, he’s probably a lightweight and his inability to cut down is a major detriment to Gastelum at this stage of his career.

Still, despite inconsistencies in and out of the cage, Gastelum is pretty skillful and is coming off a strong win over Daniel Rodriguez, where he landed 112 sig. strikes and another four takedowns. Rodriguez landed 127 sig. strikes of his own in that matchup.

It’s more volume than we’ve seen from Gastelum in a long time. Historically, he averages 3.74 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 3.48 with a 57 percent defensive rate. In other decisions, we’ve seen Gastelum only land 83, 89 (five rounds), 62 (five rounds) and 38 sig. strikes.

Gastelum carries some power but he’s not a major knockout threat. His best attribute may honestly be his durability, as he’s eaten some massive shots and survived. He famously got knocked down four times by Adesanya and nearly won the fight.

Gastelum also comes from a wrestling background, where he is capable. He lands 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 59 percent which is poor. It will just come down to the level of his opponent that will determine his ground success.

He fought Sean Brady pretty recently and gave up five takedowns, and was submitted in the third round. Robert Whittaker took him down four times as well. However against randoms like Ian Heinisch and Daniel Rodriguez, Gastelum can show some takedown upside of his own.

As far as this matchup, I have to lean toward Pyfer who is the true middleweight. He will have a significant size advantage, and he’s a better overall athlete and more physical than Gastelum.

Pyfer has enough boxing skills to compete with Gastelum in general, but with the additional size advantages, he should be able to pick at Gastelum with his jab and leg kicks, and Gastelum will likely struggle to get inside.

If for some reason Pyfer does allow Gastelum to pressure and get inside, he could be vulnerable. That’s where Gastelum’s power can show up, but I have a difficult time seeing Gastelum land of strikes here, as Pyfer has a clear power edge and may hurt him.

Also, I think Pyfer has more wrestling upside of the two. I’m not sure that he will pursue it aggressively but I think Pyfer could land a few takedowns, and he may have submission upside.

Gastelum probably cannot take Pyfer down but even if he does once or twice, I don’t think he can hold Pyfer down for any period of time.

Gastelum also has more proven cardio than Pyfer which I suppose could play a role in an extended fight here at elevation, but I generally believe Pyfer will be fine in three rounds. Maybe he’ll slow down towards the end but I’m still not sold Gastelum can find a way to produce much offense.

I’m taking Pyfer here, probably to win a decision. He’ll have mild finishing equity both on the feet and on the mat but Gastelum is super tough. Gastelum is also live to win an extended fight or via a random power shot, but I think the size and athletic gaps will be too much for him to cover.

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On DraftKings, Pyfer is priced up to 9.3k, and he’s somewhat viable though he won’t rate out super well.

Really, the issue is that Pyfer likely needs a finish. He himself is a finisher and profiles as the type to secure early finishes, but Gastelum has never been knocked out in 28 pro fights. That’s why Pyfer is only +115 to win ITD here as opposed to something better.

The grappling aspect for Pyfer is interesting though. He may have significant ground advantages if he can get on top, but it’s honestly up in the air as to how much he’ll choose to wrestle. I think it’s fine to play into that aspect, hoping he will grapple which will give him more paths to score and more paths to finish. But it’s also worth acknowledging he may just box and therefore will be ultra boom or bust.

I think that Pyfer is a fine play, and I’m hesitant to be too far under the field here. But he also doesn’t rate out as an elite play, especially at potential chalk. I’d just feel so much more comfortable targeting him against an opponent who has been knocked out before, as opposed to one with proven durability.

Still, I do think Pyfer could score a knockdown on pure early power, and with the question marks on the grappling side, it’s enough to bring me on him a little bit. I don’t expect to have heavy exposure here and I would aim underweight if he does project to be chalk, but Pyfer is a fine upside target based on his finishing profile.

Gastelum at 6.9k doesn’t really interest me.

I do think he could win but I am expecting him to lose. The size disadvantages really bother me and I think it will hinder his game. Catching Pyfer and knocking him out is possible but not something I’d want to bet on. Gastelum is only +575 to win ITD.

And I don’t think he has real grappling equity here compared to his last matchup, so I don’t want to bet on that either.

Gastelum is the best real life fighter in this bottom tier, which has some value in itself, but I don’t love the matchup nor path to a ceiling for him, and so I’ll aim to be quite light on Gastelum overall.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pyfer by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales

Fight Odds: Rosas -507, Morales +377

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Rosas 9.2k, Morales 7k

Weight Class: 135

Now 20 years old, we’ll see the bright Mexican prospect Raul Rosas Jr. back in the Octagon again for his sixth bout in the promotion. He’ll take on veteran boxer Vince Morales this weekend.

Rosas has largely been successful at the UFC level, and has won four of his previous five bouts in the organization, only losing a tough decision to Christian Rodriguez.

He’s submitted both Jay Perrin and Ricky Turcios. He knocked out Terrance Mitchell and he’s most recently coming off a decision win against Aoriqileng. To be fair, this isn’t the best level of competition, but Rosas has largely been in control for the majority of his fights.

Rosas is primarily a wrestler and that’s where he’s going to excel the most. He lands 4.02 takedowns per 15 minutes at 39 percent accuracy, and he’s a solid control grappler with the capability of taking the back.

I don’t think he’s a super deep submission artist but he’s a very strong back taker, and he will continue to have RNC equity in most matchups.

Otherwise, Rosas doesn’t offer a whole lot. His hands look fine but he’s still a developing boxer, and he only lands 1.55 sig. strikes per minute. He just hasn’t been in many engagements on the feet, and is also only absorbing 1.43 per minute.

In fact, in approximately 51 minutes of tracked cage time, Rosas has only landed 49 distance strikes, and only absorbed 53 distance strikes. He’s had basically one full round at distance which came in his most recent fight against Aoriqileng, where the two landed 17 sig. strikes a piece.

I don’t think Rosas is an awful boxer, and in fact I’d expect more positive developments. We really have to be aware that this kid is TWENTY YEARS OLD. He has so much room for growth.

But for now, we just haven’t seen him strike that much and there’s no reason to believe he’s going to pull away on the feet. He does have some power and mild knockout equity because of it, but I would worry about him losing rounds or simply not doing enough at distance to clearly win rounds.

The good news is that Rosas has typically gone after takedowns as it’s his primary method of victory, and he’s quite comfortable on the mat.

He’ll be taking on Vince Morales this weekend who is in his second stint in the UFC, and it hasn’t gone much better than his first. Realistically, this is probably the last time we’ll ever see Morales fight in the UFC.

Including his shot on DWCS in 2018 which he lost, Morales has a 3-8 UFC record, though he’s competed against some decent opposition.

He just doesn’t offer much as a fighter. His primary skill set is his boxing, but he only lands 3.84 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.29 per minute. In eight tracked decisions, Morales has landed 40, 39, 39, 51, 76, 64, 59 and 74 significant strikes.

It’s just not enough to clearly win rounds without big damage. And on that note, Morales has three knockdowns in those 11 tracked fights, though he lost two of the fights in which he landed a knockdown.

He’s largely been very durable which is a positive, though he suffered a leg kick TKO against Gutierrez in 2020. Otherwise, he’s never been knocked down and he’s a good bet to fight for 15 minutes.

Morales has improved his grappling over the years but it’s still not a strong suit. He actually came from a wrestling background in high school but he only lands 0.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, and that mark has come up significantly because he’s landed two takedowns in each of his past two fights.

Defensively he’s sitting 60 percent on takedowns which isn’t too strong, and he’s given up takedowns to four of his past six opponents.

However, he’s shown a decent get-up game and hasn’t been easy to submit. He actually lost by submission on DWCS in 2018 though after knocking his opponent down early in the fight.

On his recent regional run, Morales picked up two d’arce chokes and a peruvian necktie, which shows some possible improvements as a submission grappler. I still don’t consider him a major threat, though if opponents are shooting sloppy, Morales does have potential to jump on a neck.

Overall, Morales is largely dependent on winning competitive boxing fights, of which he’s capable. He’s not a fighter that opponents run through with ease, but at the same time, Morales doesn’t have enough depth in his offensive game to give many a real challenge.

He’s coming off another close loss to another grappling prospect in Elijah Smith, who didn’t have much success, but still took Morales down three times and controlled him for a few minutes.

I would expect Rosas to be able to have more success than Morales, and Rosas will be the clear pick to win.

There is still a somewhat wide range of outcomes in the matchup, as Rosas does have early RNC equity, but I could also see this fight going a full 15 minutes. In the latter case, I would still expect Rosas to pick up a few takedowns and earn a few minutes of control here and there.

I also wouldn’t be completely shocked if Rosas wanted to box for a while. In his most recent matchup, he wrestled early but then failed on a couple of attempts in the second round, and just boxed. He landed takedowns again in the third round, but we have seen Rosas slow down before in extended fights, so that’s a mild concern if he starts to fail on takedown shots.

Even in a pure boxing fight though, I don’t think Morales would be at some big advantage. I would probably favor him but only slightly, and I would still expect Rosas to keep up on the numbers while limiting distance engagements.

The win case for Morales is viable but I’m not too excited by it. He just needs to survive some early grappling attempts, and hope Rosas gets tired. There’s some chance he can edge out boxing rounds down the stretch or perhaps even land a takedown of his own, though I doubt he can do anything with it.

More than likely, Rosas will be the better wrestler and better athlete, and will find a way to top position where he’ll earn enough control to ride out multiple rounds. And there’s some chance he takes the back and picks up a submission along the way.

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On DraftKings, Rosas is priced up to 9.2k and I think he’s a pretty solid target with a pretty safe floor/ceiling combination.

Given his propensity to wrestle, we’ve generally seen strong results from Rosas when he wins. In his victories inside the distance, Rosas has scored 106, 133 and 111. 

The concern I suppose comes in a decision. On DWCS he would have topped 100 points, but against Aoriqileng last time out, Rosas only scored 86. He’s not the best ground-and-pound specialist and obviously any time at distance will equate to very little scoring, so we’d ideally like to get that submission for Rosas to reach a ceiling.

Now he’s only +150 to win ITD which is a concern, and the fight is -150 to go the distance. Both of those lines have been bet down this week though, from +200 ITD and -180 GTD which makes me feel a tad better. Rosas has also been bet up from -375ish to -500 which will probably make him even more popular.

I would still expect several takedowns and many minutes of control from Rosas in a win, but it’s possible he scores in the 90 point range and not the 110+ point range, which would potentially see him pushed off the optimal lineup.

If anything, you can even argue that it may be smart not to play a ton of Rosas this week considering that fact. If this fight goes the distance like it is projected to, and he’s chalky which I am expecting based on his box scores and matchup, Rosas may underperform a bit and hurt a large percentage of the field.

At the same time, I wouldn’t want to be severely underweight here because his floor is so strong, and he does have paths to 100 points even in a decision. He also has finishing equity and I wouldn’t be totally surprised by an early RNC. He’s an easy target for moderate exposure all things considered.

The higher owned Rosas projects to be, the more merit there is to coming in underweight and pivoting away to other finishers in this range, but in general Rosas is going to project quite strongly for 9.2k given his grappling style. I’m fine to come in near the field as he fits in pretty easily in a lot of constructions, and I’m expecting a decent result should he get his hand raised.

Morales is priced at 7k and doesn’t interest me a whole lot.

If Rosas loses, I think the most likely scenario is that Morales lands 0-2 takedowns, and 40-60 significant strikes, which just isn’t enough for me to get very excited. The leverage alone makes Morales viable, but if the end result is going to be 60 points or less, I still don’t think Morales is a great target.

Morales’ last two decision wins scored 68 and 54, and if he had won any of his recent four decision losses, he still would have only reached the 60-70 mark a couple of times. He’s +700 to win ITD here and I just don’t think it’s a great matchup for Morales to accrue points.

So honestly, I don’t like Morales this week and I don’t think I’m going to play him. I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he pulled off an ugly, competitive decision win once Rosas tires out, but I don’t see the fantasy upside here and I’m not willing to chase Morales as a sizable underdog.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rosas by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira

Fight Odds: Martinez -414, Oliveira +320

Odds to end ITD: -140

DraftKings Salaries: Martinez 9.4k, Oliveira 6.8k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have what will likely be a decently action packed fight here in the bantamweight division between David Martinez and Saimon Oliveira.

Martinez is a Mexican fighter who is 11-1 professionally. He is 26 years old and this will be his UFC debut. He is actually the brother of fellow UFC fighter Melissa Martinez, and I think they are the first brother-sister combination in the history of the UFC. Martinez comes from a karate background apparently.

Martinez booked his ticket to the UFC with a striking based decision win on the Contender Series. He outlanded his opponent 79-46 in significant strikes. 

Martinez is a striker, and he’s not bad. He has really consistent and strong leg kicks. His leg kicks are actually the best part of his game. He can completely batter his opponents throughout a fight with them. He also has mild to moderate power and has knocked out plenty of guys on the regionals.

Martinez will counter his opponents with straight punches on the way in too. He will sometimes mix in flashy kicks as well so you can see that karate background in his game. He has some decent speed. He also looks decently evasive, and can skirt on the outside and frustrate his opponents. 

Martinez’s cardio looks alright. I do think he lost some speed as the fight went on in his Contender Series matchup. However, he fought tough down the stretch. I have seen him fight late in other fights with no issue, and he has multiple RD 4 TKOs on the regional scene. He also seems tough, although I haven’t seen him hit or face much adversity either.

Martinez doesn’t look to wrestle often. I’ve seen him defend takedowns reasonably well and work up fine though. I honestly need to see more of his grappling, but I do think his takedown defense and get-up game looks strong. I don’t think offensive wrestling will be something he looks to do too often at this level. 

I basically think Martinez looks like a reasonably capable striker at this level. He has some power and can maybe get a knockout here and there, or win some striking based decisions. I do think he can compete on the feet against the lower to mid talent level of this division. I will say that Martinez’s competition has been awful though. He hasn’t beaten anyone good so it is at least something to note for now.

Martinez will be taking on Saimon Oliveira who is 0-2 in the UFC. Oliveira got outwrestled in his UFC debut against Tony Gravely. He then got the crap kicked out of him and was knocked out with body shots by Daniel Marcos.

Oliveira is mostly a Muay Thai striker who throws some pretty powerful strikes and will also look to get front headlock chokes.

I mostly consider Oliveira an opportunist. He will look to hurt his opponents and aggressively go after them on the feet, and he will also fish for guillotines. In his last 10 wins, he has seven finishes with six coming by way of guillotine which is kind of hilarious. 

Oliveira does have major holes though. His defensive grappling and wrestling is not very strong. He can be taken down and he is a little too submission over position which isn’t a good thing at the UFC level. He will jump guillotines, end up on his back, and risk losing rounds. He will get outwrestled in the UFC again if he has a few more fights.

Oliveira earned his UFC contract by winning a split decision on the Contender Series against regional mainstay Jose Alday. Oliveira showed some okay striking in that fight, but I still don’t think he is a great round winner on the feet and is more reliant on big moments. He actually won the fight by landing takedowns. 

However, his offensive wrestling doesn’t look strong to me and I highly doubt it will work in the UFC. I think his paths to victory in the UFC will be limited to hurting his opponents on the feet ,and winning by knockout or earning a submission once his opponents are hurt.

Oliveira is decently tough. He has had 23 professional fights and has only been finished once. So as an opportunist, it is good that he can hang around and give himself the full 15 minutes to find a finish.

I still just think this guy is a poor round winner though. He is not a process driven striker or grappler and is too reliant on big moments.

As far as this matchup goes, I think Oliveira is probably finish or bust. Maybe he can randomly knock Martinez out or jump on a guillotine. I do think Oliviera is a decent opportunist. However, Martinez seems tough so I will pick Martinez to survive.

Perhaps Oliveira can land takedowns and get control too. However, I am leaning against that. I don’t think Oliviera is the best wrestler and Martinez seems to have the right idea defending takedowns and working up to his feet. Maybe a takedown or two lands but I doubt it results in a ton of control, it will likely need to result in a finish for Oliveira.

So I generally think Martinez can keep this fight standing where I do think he is superior from a technical and defensive perspective. My guess is he can probably just box Oliveira up and land leg kicks, and maybe hurt or knock Oliviera out.

Oliveira is tough though so maybe he survives. If this goes 15 minutes, I do think Martinez will win rounds somewhat cleanly. I do think Oliveira could potentially bother Martinez by pressuring him and not giving him room to operate, but I doubt Oliveira can do that for 15 minutes.

So I am going to go with Martinez here. I think he can stop the grappling of Oliviera, avoid getting finished, and get his striking game going.

—

On DraftKings, Martinez is priced up to 9.4k which makes him tricky to roster.

He does have a few early finishes on his record, but mostly against bad competition, and his most recent three wins all came in round four or by decision. I think he profiles more as a round winner than a finisher personally.

I also think we’re lacking some data on Martinez, and I’d like to see him tested a bit more. I’m not convinced he’s a great wrestler but I do think his base level of defense is adequate.

Either way, at 9.4k, he needs a finish. We just saw him land 79 sig. strikes on DWCS and I don’t think that’s a far stretch from what we might see in the UFC. It’s just not enough. And he doesn’t project to wrestle much either.

The good news is he has a hittable opponent in Oliveira. I worry a little bit that people will overvalue Martinez’ early finishing chances here because Oliveira was KOd by Marcos, but Marcos hits way harder than Martinez and also those were body shots. So I’m still unsure how tough Oliveira is.

Still, we have seen Oliveira slow down in past fights and Martinez’ cardio looks excellent to me. I do think a mid-round finish is plausible, more so on accumulation than pure KO power. Martinez is +100 to win ITD officially which is fine, though the fight is -125 to go Over 2.5 rounds which is a concern.

I don’t think Martinez is a terrible play but I don’t think I can prioritize him. There are a few other fighters in the 9k range I think have more early finishing equity, and ultimately 9.4k is expensive.

My guess is the field won’t be super high on Martinez either at this price tag. He won’t be full on contrarian but he’s not a bad pivot off some potentially more chalky options.

He is still very boom or bust with limited ways to score. If he kicks Oliveira in the head and knocks him out, great, if not, he’ll probably underperform. I’m willing to take some chances with Martinez due to the question marks on Oliveira but ultimately I don’t want lots of exposure here in a fight that does project to extend.

Oliveira at 6.8k is worth a shot.

He jumped for a million guillotines on Gravely and while I hate that path, at least he gives himself a chance. And you just never know how good a fighter’s defense is. I doubt Martinez has faced many better sub grapplers than Oliveira.

Without a random guillotine choke, I doubt Oliveira wins. I have seen Martinez rocked before so a KO is possible as well, but it’s not a super likely outcome as Oliveira doesn’t throw consistently enough.

Oliveira is only +565 to win ITD here and won’t rate out well. He’s not a good prospect and longterm I don’t want anything to do with him. I don’t particularly like him in this matchup either.

However, there are still some unknowns with Martinez on the grappling side, and if Oliveira wins, he’ll probably score well at a very low public percentage. He’s worth a sprinkle in my mind in large fields if you’re playing with a large portfolio. With a small portfolio it’s probably fine to X him out and hope you don’t have to sweat too many guillotine attempts.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Martinez by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas

Fight Odds: Rodriguez -141, Borjas +122

Odds to end ITD: +105

DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.5k, Borjas 7.7k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a fun flyweight fight here between Ronaldo Rodriguez and Kevin Borjas. I don’t think either of these guys are great. However, I do think this fight will be entertaining.

Rodriguez is a Mexican fighter who is 17-2 professionally. Rodriguez is 2-0 in the UFC, beating Ode Osbourne at the Sphere and submitting Denys Bondar in his UFC debut.

Rodriguez isn’t very good and is kind of a weird fighter to describe as his game is a bit disjointed.

I do think Rodriguez is a decent grappler. When he is on top, he can threaten and pass guard. He can go for guillotines, pop in body triangles, and I do think he is decent overall as a submission grappler. I also think he is fine just scrambling on the mat. If he ends up on his back, he can work up or reverse position and he can chain grappling sequences for 15 minutes.

I don’t think Rodriguez’s takedowns are all that great though. He doesn’t actually even shoot many takedowns which is what he should be doing. In his last two matchups against Bondar and Osbourne, he actually only landed one takedown even though he had a ton of grappling success in both fights. I also think his TDD is weak but he does scramble up well.

Rodriguez’s striking is kind of weird. It definitely isn’t good. He can throw some leg kicks and some decent hands from time to time. He is just kind of susceptible to power shots on the feet though, and isn’t very talented as a striker. He can just get tagged from time to time and we have seen him get hurt. He doesn’t have much in terms of volume or speed.

However, Rodriguez will at least walk opponents down and is tough on the feet. He doesn’t throw much early and can get behind on the strike count, but Rodriguez kind of slowly walks his opponents down. He makes them tired or uncomfortable by having them backpedal. He then is able to throw power shots and he actually has a little more power than I originally thought. 

So although I don’t love his striking, he is a pretty tough guy who can walk opponents down, and eventually land his shots and take advantage of guys on the mat if he hurts them. He almost builds a little bit, but not really in terms of volume, more so in terms of landing power shots.

Rodriguez is just okay. His grappling is decent on the mat even though he isn’t a great wrestler. His striking is flawed in terms of volume. However, he has a little more power than I think most will give him credit for, and he has good cardio and is very tough. So he can give himself opportunities to hurt people and take advantage of guys on the mat. I have a feeling people are going to get burned trying to fade him for a bit. He will surely lose to good fighters at this weight class, but I do think he will beat the lower tiers of this division.

Enter Kevin Borjas who is definitely in the lower tiers of this division. Borjas is a Peruvian fighter who is 9-3 professionally, but 0-2 in the UFC after getting beaten by Alessandro Costa and Joshua Van.

Costa was able to beat Borjas up, and then compromise him with leg kicks and eventually finish Borjas on the mat. Borjas actually hurt Joshua Van early and won the early portions of the fight. However, Van eventually walked Borjas down, got him tired, and beat him up to win a clear decision.

Those are two extremely difficult matchups for your first two UFC matchups so I do forgive Borjas a bit.

Borjas had a more manageable fight on the Contender Series against Victor Dias. Dias is a grappler and did have some success taking Borjas down and getting some decent positions. In the last couple of rounds though, Borjas fought back and landed the better strikes. Although referee Chris Tognoni gave an awful standup in round three that basically won Borjas the fight. Borjas outlanded Dias 87-43 in significant strikes.

I mostly consider Borjas a striker. He is a decent striker and you did see that a bit in his Contender Series fight and in round one against Van. His hands are decent and he likes his jab and straight punches. He will also follow up his straight punch combination with a left hook to the body. I do like some of his body shots. He also has okay volume and some pop in his hands. He generally knocked all of his opponents out on the regionals.

I basically think that is all Borjas really has though. He is a decent striker for a while and is moderately dangerous. However, he does get a bit tired. He can be tagged a bit on the feet too and I don’t think he has the best durability. He also doesn’t look like much of an offensive wrestler at all.

I also think Borjas’ defensive grappling is a liability. On the Contender Series, he was taken down and put in really bad positions. He used some physicality to defend takedowns here and there, but he clearly is unskilled as a grappler. I also saw him get club and subbed on the regionals, and I just didn’t like how easily he got his back taken and choked out. You also saw Costa just handle him on the mat too even though Borjas was hurt a bit. I definitely think Borjas will get exposed on the mat at this level.  

As far as this matchup goes, I definitely think Rodriguez has some advantages. Rodriguez has better cardio and durability in my mind. So even if Rodriguez is losing some early striking exchanges, I do think Rodriguez can eventually get to Borjas, and has a sneaky chance of hurting Borjas on the feet down the stretch.

Rodriguez is also a better submission grappler. If these guys grapple a bit, I think Rodriguez could get some dominant positions and probably even finish Borjas. So all in all, I do favor Rodriguez for the cardio, durability, and grappling advantages.

I still think Borjas is a faster striker with better volume early. I think Borjas will get the better of the striking exchanges for a bit and may even be able to hurt Rodriguez. 

Rodriguez is very tough so I don’t think Borjas is going to finish him but I have seen stranger things happen. Borjas could at the very least bank round one though.

I still just think Rodriguez will eventually get to Borjas though. Rodriguez will walk Borjas down and could tire him, hurt him, etc. Rodriguez could maybe land takedowns too. Even if Rodriguez doesn’t go for takedowns, he could just end up on top of Borjas if he happens to hurt him. I just think Rodriguez has plenty of ways to eventually get to Borjas and potentially break him. It could be with cardio or grappling.

So I am going to go with Rodriguez here. I think Rodriguez may get tagged a bit early. However, I think Rodriguez has the cardio, durability, and grappling advantages which should give him opportunities and more paths to victory in this fight.

—

On DraftKings, I’m somewhat interested in this matchup for the low-level, binary aspect.

Rodriguez is priced at 8.6k and should have submission upside. The issue is he lacks process and isn’t particularly skillful as a wrestler. It’s not a situation I’d normally be a fan of, and I have some pretty severe longterm concerns with Rodriguez.

I also think it’s wishful thinking to believe he can really beat Borjas standing, or that he can survive. It’s worth watching Rodriguez fight Osbourne last time out – Rodriguez was dropped badly early to the point that the ref could have easily stepped in. I think it’s a flaw in his style defensively and I don’t think he’s very comfortable on the feet.

He might be able to survive, but I can very easily picture Borjas beating him up and hurting him badly if the fight plays out on the feet. So ultimately, Rodriguez may be forced to grapple.

And if he wins, I do think grappling is involved since that is where he has the clearest advantage. It’s still risky, but he has some takedown equity with early submission upside.

Rodriguez is +165 to win ITD which has been bet down a bit this week from +185, though he only scored 77 in his most recent win.

There’s no reason to be particularly confident in Rodriguez’ skills, but due to the simple fact that he has some grappling domination upside in a win, I like him in tournaments. I wouldn’t mind being overweight to the field if the field is scared off, but ultimately I’d only label him a standard secondary target due to extreme bust risk in an extended matchup.

Borjas at 7.7k is a worse fantasy scorer and will likely be dependent on an early KO.

He shouldn’t have much grappling success although I suppose he could mix in a takedown or two. Striking volume won’t matter over 15 minutes and Rodriguez isn’t going to absorb a ton.

We just need to hope this is a super binary matchup and that when Borjas is standing, he starts to hurt Rodriguez. It could come early too. Borjas is +475 to win ITD so he won’t rate out particularly well either.

I’m less of a fan of Borjas I guess because striking doesn’t score as well on DK, so the path to hit is thinner. He’s not a must play here. I do think having exposure makes sense given the potentially binary nature of the fight though, and seeing how badly Rodriguez got hurt last time out. 

He’s only a low-end target but I think there’s some sneaky finishing equity with Borjas so he’s a fine mix in at 7.7k in larger fields.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)

UNDERCARD

Edgar Chairez vs. CJ Vergara

Fight Odds: Chairez -256, Vergara +212

Odds to end ITD: -110

DraftKings Salaries: Chairez 9k, Vergara 7.2k

Weight Class: 125

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Edgar Chairez got a crack on the Contender Series back in 2022 but came up short in his opportunity against Clayton Carpenter. But he got the call up to the UFC the following year as a short notice fill-in, receiving an entry level contract – he’s 1-2 in the UFC and 11-6 as a pro. CJ Vergara’s a fellow Contender Series alum who was successful in his opportunity back in 2021. But he’s been up and down since joining the promotion and has had bigger struggles with the scales having missed weight three times now – he’s 3-4 in the UFC and 12-5-1 as a pro.

The striking component:

Chairez is a longer flyweight who works in a more kickboxing based style. His pacing has been a bit all over the board as I’ve seen him be higher output in certain fights but patient in others.

He’s shown good leg kicks, respectable counter boxing and the ability to mix it up in the pocket.    

Chairez has four wins via KO/TKO but all coming in a bit of an unconventional fashion: flying knee, spinning elbow, body kick and clinch knee.    

However, we saw him drop Taira with a cheeky left hook when Taira came in – he’s the first guy to really hurt Taira like that, albeit Taira recovered well – it still won him that round though. He also did well in the boxing against Carpenter back on Contender Series and gave Joshua Van one hell of a scrap last time out.    

The primary issue I have with him outside of inconsistent pacing is that his defense isn’t great, especially in the tighter quarters and he doesn’t check kicks. I’ve seen not the best of guys land on him cleanly when coming forward and have busted him up before, despite getting the better of the exchanges in most of his fights.    

In his defense though, he’s shown that Mexican toughness, having never been finished with strikes in his pro career, so he’s a guy you can anticipate to be in there for a full 15 minutes.    

Overall, Chairez’s standing success at the UFC level will be matchup dependent but he’s a competent striker.

Vergara falls more into your blue-collar type of striker.     

He’s not a great athlete or the fastest guy but will look to play a pressure-based game and keep a consistent work rate, landing 5 SLpM at 57%.   

He’s shown some power components as well with seven of his 12 pro wins coming via strikes which in a division like flyweight is a good historic. But he’s more of an attritional guy in terms of his finishes in comparison to being a “one hitter quitter” type.    

However, his defense can be an afterthought as he eats 4.7 SApM at 52% and can struggle with pressure/faster/more dynamic strikers.     

Against Silva, he got hit clean pretty much anytime Silva decided to go forward and throw on him – he was dropped twice in the first round. To his credit, he weathered the storm and was able to take over the fight in the latter rounds against a gassed Silva and find a finish of his own. 

On DWCS, he was able to blitz Souza, do some good work from the clinch and finish with a knee to the body in under two minutes.   Against Osbourne, he struggled with the length and speed of Osbourne early, but the tide started to shift halfway through the fight and Vergara started to find a home for his strikes when Osbourne slowed.    

Somewhat of a similar story against Rodrigues where he got out landed at distance 70-45 – he landed a lot of big shots in there though and held his own. He had to survive one hell of an early surge from Lacerda who dropped him twice but hung tough, Lacerda gassed, and he finished him off in the 2nd. He went on to win the latter two rounds against Salvador after having a slower start, and most recently was put down for the first time in his career by Temirov.  

Overall, Vergara is a gritty striker who can break and/or outlast guys with pace and pressure but despite his toughness, he’s an available fighter that’s there to be hit.

How it plays out: Off the top, Chairez will realize a size advantage of 1” in height and 3” in reach. Just given Vergara’s style, I don’t have much concern about Chairez’s volume in this spot and would anticipate him to fight at a higher work rate. In totality, he’s the better guy on the feet as the cleaner striker who’s a bit quicker to the punch and who I’d give more damage upside to. But as noted, Vergara’s a scrappy guy who will throw volume and Chairez isn’t very good defensively where I’d anticipate Vergara to land here as well.     

The wrestling/grappling component:

I’m unsure of Chairez’s grappling credentials but seven of his 11 pro wins come via submission. However, he hasn’t shown to be much of a wrestler with the overwhelming majority of his submissions coming from his back with guillotines, armbars or triangles.

So, he does have an aggressive guard to some capacity and it’s worked on the lower level Mexican regionals, but we’ve seen him locked down as well, specifically at points against Carpenter which aided in him dropping that fight and getting washed out by Taira in his debut.     

I was actually impressed with Chairez’s ability to avoid getting finished in that fight from a couple crucifix positions and a triangle. However, what was not encouraging was that he put himself on his back multiple times which is a bigger pet peeve of mine – also it just generally didn’t make a ton of sense given that Chairez was having success on the feet and Taira wanted to grapple.

He most recently gave up three TDs and 4.5 minutes of control against Van, which did play a factor in the decision of that fight.  But his 1st level TDD when he’s actually looking to defend and get-up game isn’t terrible, as I’ve seen him stuff some deep shots and use elevators well to work back up to the feet when he wants to in many other occasions as well, despite conceding control in a handful of spots.    

Overall, opponents have to mind their Ps and Qs with Chairez but he’s a defensive wrestling liability at the UFC level.  

Being a base striker under Pete Spratt, Vergara doesn’t really pursue TDs and hasn’t statistically landed a TD so far in the UFC. He has found his way to top positions on multiple occasions but it’s from hurting guys, reversing positions off opponent failed TDAs or in scrambles.   

For example, he rode out the 3rd round on top of a tired Osbourne, took the 2nd from Rodrigues after hurting him with a body kick and pounded out a tired Lacerda after a failed calf slicer. His last regional loss was concerning back in 2018 though as he got taken down quickly, passed and choked out.     

He definitely put up resistance against Taira and was able to reverse position once, but was at too distinct of a grappling disadvantage – Taira’s a stud on the ground though for context. It’s just hard to ignore the fact that Vergara has gotten his back taken in five of his seven UFC fights.   

He was able to survive the grappling of Almabayev though, which I thought was impressive despite largely getting dominated there.  

Overall, Vergara’s not really a “pure” wrestling threat and can be strong from top in certain instances, but has struggled with his defensive wrestling.

How it plays out: The ground is kind of funky to analyze considering both guys have shown little to no willingness to offensively wrestle and have struggled as defensive wrestlers. I suppose I’d give more upside to Chairez in the sense that he has the better jiu-jitsu but if Vergara isn’t taking him down, is that upside even realized given his past? I largely think both guys will give each other the striking affair they want.

Pretty solid matchmaking here between two guys that have had dodgy UFC runs but have really only lost to higher qualities of competition and beaten the guys they were projected to. I do ultimately think Chairez is the better fighter here who should get the job done at a decent clip, but I’m also not counting out Vergara because he traditionally brings a good floor in his fights when he’s not being incessantly wrestled.

—

On DraftKings, I have mild interest in this fight and more so on the Chairez side.

It’s tough because it’s a low-level flyweight fight and an essential pick’em to go the distance. Without a finish, I doubt either side really scores a ton of points.

Chairez is priced at 9k and although that’s expensive, I think he has some finishing equity. It’s probably recency bias to a degree but we’ve seen Vergara knocked down multiple times in multiple fights, and he’s coming off a 3-KD, 1st RD KO loss to Temirov. Meanwhile, Chairez looked pretty good against Van last time out and was winning the early portion.

Projecting how this matchup plays out, if Chairez is aggressive early, I do think he can catch Vergara and maybe score a knockdown/knockout. It’s just hard to be too confident there as Chairez isn’t a great fighter and Vergara is tough.

Chairez is +125 to win ITD which is pretty solid, and he’s more easily affordable than other names in this range which is the real benefit. When I cannot pay up to the top, I’m totally fine to mix in a guy like Chairez who is still boom or bust but carries some early finishing equity.

There’s just no reason to be surprised if he cannot finish, and the fight extends, which will likely result in a mediocre score. I also have a bit more faith in fighters priced above him, in terms of getting the finish.

So Chairez is basically just a secondary target here, aided by pricing. He’s facing a pretty weak opponent who he should be able to threaten a bit, but capping his early KO chance is difficult and it wouldn’t be too wise to load up on the play. I’ll mix in him in depending on the construction.

Vergara at 7.2k doesn’t interest me a whole lot.

He’s won by decision twice in the UFC and scored 74 and 83 fantasy points, which seems like a fair outcome. He’s only +650 to win ITD and I don’t think betting on a finish makes sense.

With that said, if the fight goes the distance, Vergara could be competitive. Chairez has poor takedown defense and maybe Vergara could wrestle, though he never really has. He’s just not going to project well in general.

I don’t think a competitive decision is out of the question though and at a low public percentage, maybe that’s enough to consider him a low-end target. But I question the ceiling and don’t really want to be betting on Vergara’s talents. I’ll likely choose to take some punt risks in this bottom tier on fighters who have more finishing equity than Vergara.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Chairez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ateba Gautier

Fight Odds: Gautier -430, Medina +330

Odds to end ITD: -205

DraftKings Salaries: Gautier 9.6k, Medina 6.6k

Weight Class: 185

I always find the UFC matchmaking to be laughable with their intentions, and this matchup between Jose Daniel Medina and Ateba Gautier is one good example.

Gautier is making his UFC debut with a 6-1 professional record, earning five wins by knockout and one by decision.

He earned his contract on the Contender Series in September, knocking out his opponent in the second round. He’s only 22 years old.

Gautier profiles very similarly to Josias Musasa from a couple of weeks ago, except I’d consider Gautier to be even more green than Musasa.

He came from a rough upbringing in Cameroon but caught the attention of Manchester Top Team where he currently trains with Lerone Murphy and co. He’s a freak athlete, and super physical, and that can clearly translate into knockout power.

You can also see the explosiveness in his game. Gautier will throw flying knees, and he can do some strong work in the clinch where he’s super capable of big moments. He just clearly is not polished and I don’t think is really ready for the UFC level.

Even on the Contender Series, Gautier was taken down early in the first round and he had zero clue how to get back up. In the second round, he was able to hurt his opponent and finish him off with ground strikes, so fair play to the kid, but it’s tough for me to get too excited.

Gautier’s one pro loss came by decision in 2022 in a fight that he was dominating early. His opponent kept diving on takedowns early and ending up on the bottom, where Gautier was beating him up on top. Gautier got tired and lost the second and third rounds to lose the decision.

Since then, Gautier has four RD 1 KOs and the lone RD 2 KO on the Contender Series.

I just have to view him as a fighter who needs early success, and success tied to damage. It seems obvious that he has serious defensive wrestling issues and I expect him to get easily beaten by any strong UFC level wrestler.

I also don’t know if his striking is even that great. Yes, he is dangerous but I don’t think he’s going to be a great minute winner and I don’t think he’s been tested in any regard. I’m not sold on his cardio or durability either.

Gautier can definitely pick up some KOs in the UFC and maybe with improved cardio and wrestling, he can become a decent talent. For now, the UFC has to be super careful who they match him up with.

And that’s why they’ve selected Jose Daniel Medina to be the man standing opposite from Gautier this weekend.

Medina is 0-1 in the UFC and he also lost on the Contender Series in 2023. He is 11-4 professionally with eight wins by knockout and two by submission.

Medina, to this point, is largely known as a guy who can take some real beatings but stay conscious, and that’s clearly his best attribute. Not his boxing, not his wrestling, not any real skill that he has. It’s his ability to eat damage and stay conscious. 

Unlike Gautier, Medina is a terrible athlete and you can tell just by looking at his body frame. He’s slow, and not particularly powerful. His boxing is acceptable for regional standards but he’s not some high-volume striker and thrives more on toughness than anything else.

As a wrestler, Medina is acceptable offensively as well but pretty poor defensively. He’s been taken down six times in his last two fights combined, and he defends at 31 percent.

He’s also a BJJ purple belt though, and again, has been able to survive on the mat. On the regionals, Medina actually had some success getting to top position where he can threaten with a sub or land some ground-and-pound. It just won’t come against a high level of competition.

Obviously, the UFC knows what they are doing here and are giving Medina to Gautier as a way for Gautier to build some hype against an opponent who is pretty likely the worst fighter in this division.

With that said, I still don’t think it’s a lock that Gautier wins.

On the feet, Gautier should be miles ahead of Medina from an athletic standpoint and he very well may become the first man to knock Medina out. Gautier will also carry a four-inch height advantage and a seven-inch reach advantage, which should only aid him in early success.

But that’s what we’ve said about Medina’s opponents in the past, and he’s survived.

Reese just landed some brutal shots on Medina, both to the head and body, and Medina survived it. I definitely think Gautier can hurt Medina as well and swarm for a finish, but I’m hesitant to say it’s a sure thing considering Medina’s past durability.

And the fact that this fight is in Mexico City, at elevation, makes it very interesting if it extends.

I do think Gautier may be fine here in an extended fight because Medina really offers nothing. Gautier can probably just land some occasional big shots, even if he slows down, and win rounds. 

There’s also a chance he gets tired, and if Medina is the fresher fighter of the two, Medina might mount a comeback. I could see him chasing some takedowns and if he gets on top of Gautier, Medina may actually have a real advantage. I don’t know if he can finish the fight, but I really am not sure Gautier can find his way back up to his feet.

I actually don’t even think Medina is a crazy pick to win, despite all the negatives here, simply due to how green and inexperienced Gautier is.

I’m still going to pick Gautier because he should have massive advantages early while he is fresh, and he should do some damage to Medina. He very well may get a stoppage. I’m also highly suspect of how he’ll fare down the stretch in this one and I give Medina a real shot if he can survive some early moments and start to chase takedowns.

—

On DraftKings, Gautier is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.6k.

He will be yet another super boom or bust target at this price tag, though I definitely think he’s viable.

Gautier is pushing -450 to win and -165 to win ITD, which is the best ITD line on this slate. And we know he has proven early finishing ability. Despite Medina having never been KOd, he’s been hurt before, and probably will get hurt again.

It’s pretty reasonable to pick Gautier by RD 1 KO and under that result, he could easily surpass 110 points and contend for the optimal.

The longer the fight goes though, the less of a shot he’ll have to reach that mark, and he may just be a bust. I will note that he would have scored around 110 with a RD 2 KO on DWCS, but that won’t always be the case if the finish comes early in the round, as opposed to late in the round.

It’s just clearly a risk against an opponent who’s never been finished, at elevation, in his UFC debut. Gautier could very well fall apart if he can’t find the early finish.

I’m still willing to play him if I can afford this price tag. There are some other, cheaper options I like as well, so I don’t necessarily want to force Gautier in. But he carries legitimate early finishing equity against an opponent who shouldn’t offer much in return.

Medina at 6.6k is viable as well.

I won’t end up with too much exposure, but I do think he has a path to victory and one that probably comes on the mat.

He’s just a big dog and has a poor ITD line at +675, so it’s hard to justify a lot of exposure. He’s really not any good either.

He should offer lots of leverage against Gautier though, and there are some unknowns/intangibles here that could mean the betting lines are just wrong. With a large portfolio, I would mix Medina in at a small percentage. With a smaller portfolio, he’s fine to fade though it could be a potential sweat if Medina is still standing in the third round.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Gautier by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium)

Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa

Fight Odds: Rodriguez -162, Costa +140

Odds to end ITD: +130

DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.4k, Costa 7.8k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an extremely interesting matchup here between tough as nails veteran Christian Rodriguez and promising prospect Melquizael Costa. This may be my favorite fight on the card.

I say this is interesting because it seems like Rodriguez always fights young grapplers who are a bit unproven and usually Rodriguez gives them a ton of issues. So Rodriguez has generally won a ton of fights by defending grappling and exhausting his opponents. Costa is a guy who isn’t grappling reliant though so Rodriguez will likely need success in this fight in a bit of a different way to win than most of his other UFC fights. So this is intriguing.

I just consider Rodriguez a well-rounded scrapper who is capable of neutralizing opponents in all areas. He is a pretty decent striker. He lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.41 in return, and defends strikes at 57 percent. I think his striking is totally fine. He has decent boxing and can mix in some kicks as well. He also defends his head well statistically. I think he thrives best on the inside in close range. He is also very tough too and seems durable.

Rodriguez is also a capable grappler and resister. He lands 1.21 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 57 percent. Rodriguez isn’t perfect as a defensive grappler. He can be taken down here and there. However, he does defend takedowns decently and is super seasoned at reversing positions on the mat and making his opponents consistently work. He is honestly just super difficult to keep on the mat. His get ups and reversals are borderline elite and he has consistently demonstrated this skill against very accomplished wrestlers.

Rodriguez also just has good cardio and even won round three against a pace fighter in Jonathan Pearce. Rodriguez is just good enough offensively and defensively to tire opponents out and overwhelm them.

Rodriguez was recently submitted with a guillotine by Julian Erosa, but I do think it was a bit random and Erosa is super dangerous with his front chokes, so I don’t think it was that concerning.

My main concern with Rodriguez is where his offense will come from when he is facing a guy who won’t grapple himself to exhaustion. Can Rodriguez just outstrike someone, or take and hold someone down to cleanly win rounds? I am not totally sure honestly, so that is why this is an intriguing matchup against Melquizael Costa.

I thought Costa looked good against Austin Lingo in a mostly striking battle in 2023 where Costa outlanded Lingo 100-39 in significant strikes. He then gassed himself out and got knocked out when he tried outwrestling Steve Garcia. That was a strange performance, but I still do think Costa has some decent wrinkles in his game. Costa showed some good kicking skills in his most recent win vs Fili and then he guillotined Fili which showed he is dangerous.

Costa is now 22-7 professionally and fights out of Brazil. Standing out of the Southpaw stance, Costa likes to come forward and strike. He is aggressive and he likes to use his rear kick to the body. He is basically always throwing his rear kick and will also use it to the head.

Costa has a good kicking game. He can also fight going backwards and has decent hands as well. I was actually impressed by his defense against Lingo as well. He controlled range well in that fight.

I generally think Costa is a pretty decent striker and will compete just fine in striking fights. I consider him moderately dangerous with pretty good cardio. He still hasn’t faced a ton of good strikers though. Lingo is bad even though Costa looked good there. The way Costa wilted against Garcia was at least a bit concerning. However, Costa looked good in the short time against Fili.

On the mat, Costa has some BJJ and wrestling in his game offensively, but he isn’t a great defensive grappler. Thiago Moises took him down four times and eventually submitted him. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke also took down and controlled Costa. Costa scrambles up okay at times, but he needs to work on his defensive grappling. 

Costa isn’t an awful defensive grappler, but it is definitely not a strength of his and he will get exposed on the mat again by an above-average grappler. I do like Costa’s back taking and body triangling / RNC game. He isn’t a good wrestler or control grappler, but he is tricky with his back takes. Perhaps he has a dangerous guard too as I didn’t expect him to submit Fili like that. I feel like Fili showed poor guillotine defense in that fight though.

As far as this matchup goes, I am a bit torn. This is a well matched fight and I think both guys have ways to win.

On the feet, I think Costa is surely a better kicker and could probably pepper Rodriguez up a bit and get off to a lead by skating on the outside. Costa may be able to just use his length and keep landing on Rodriguez from kicking range.

I still think Rodriguez is a capable striker himself though and is probably a better boxer than Costa in the pocket. I still hated the way Costa looked vs Garcia. Garcia just pressured him and panicked him. Fili doesn’t pressure often. Fili just stood at middle distance in perfect range for Costa to pick him apart with kicks. I do think Rodriguez will pressure Costa much more and have some success on the inside. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodriguez eventually got to Costa.

I think the main advantage Rodriguez has is that he is a better defensive wrestler. Outside of back takes for Costa, I don’t think he will have much success holding Rodriguez down. Rodriguez on the other hand may get on top and have a lot of success. Perhaps Costa can lock in a guillotine or something. We saw Erosa do it to Rodriguez. However, the top time upside alone makes me want to pick Rodriguez.

This is a well matched fight though. Costa probably won’t try to grapple Rodriguez excessively and may just look to strike from the outside. That is not a fight we see Rodriguez have to fight often. So it will be up to Rodriguez to pressure Costa and land his own strikes and offense, and perhaps have some success with some top game grappling to win this fight.

–

On DraftKings, I’m honestly not a huge fan of this fight and I think it’s one of the more difficult ones on the slate to get a read on.

For starters, four of Costa’s five UFC fights have ended inside the distance. He’s won by sub twice, he’s been subbed, and he’s been knocked out. Yet this fight is -160 to go the distance because Rodriguez is a neutralizer.

Next, I tend to never play Rodriguez because he is a neutralizer. He is more skilled defensively than offensively. Despite recent wins, he’s only scoring 76, 65, 91 and 71 in his decisions.

That 91 point score came with three takedowns though, and my gut feeling is that Rodriguez may try to wrestle here. Costa has a solid submission game but he’s defending takedowns at 50 percent, and he’s been taken down 4x by multiple fighters already in the UFC.

Rodriguez is not typically someone I would want to roster but if he wins, is wrestling involved? I’d guess so.

Additionally, seeing Costa break and exhaust himself also makes me think Rodriguez could tire Costa out too. I don’t think the fight will look similarly and it’s not fair to make the comparison between Rodriguez and Steve Garcia, but Costa looked awful there. Maybe Rodriguez also has an ITD path via pressure and boxing.

I still think it’s a pretty big risk to take to play a lot of Rodriguez based on historics. He’s only +250 to win ITD here as well.

At 8.4k, I think he’s viable though and I’d label him a secondary target. Purely due to some wrestling equity, I could see Rodriguez winning and exceeding value. It’s fair to be light on him with ceiling concerns and style concerns, but given the matchup I’d rather mix him in and not let him kill me on this slate.

Costa at 7.8k wouldn’t interest me at all except for the fact that Julian Erosa submitted Rodriguez.

Like, come on. These elite pedigree grapplers cannot beat Rodriguez and they all exhaust themselves trying to wrestle him, but Julian “breathe on me and I’ll get knocked out” Erosa scores a dominant early submission?

I’m not sure what to think. My gut feeling is that kicking Rodriguez at distance isn’t going to do a whole lot, and I do have concerns Costa ends up on his back for a while.

The most likely outcome in my mind for Costa is edging out rounds and winning a decision in which he does not exceed 80 points. Maybe he can score better with a takedown or two involved but Rodriguez is super tough to hold down.

At the same time, all it takes is one dumb decision for Costa to lock up a guillotine choke. So it’s also fair to consider some submission equity. He won’t rate out particularly well at +350 ITD.

This is another “don’t kill me” type spot. My initial lean is to not play a lot of Costa, especially if his recent strong box scores are going to draw attention. I generally don’t think Rodriguez is an easy matchup or easy guy to finish, and Costa is worse than many of his recent opponents.

Still, there’s some random submission upside so I don’t hate it if you also want to mix Costa in for pure win equity and mild grappling equity below the mid-range.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Loopy Godinez vs. Julia Polastri

Fight Odds: Godinez -267, Polastri +220

Odds to end ITD: +375

DraftKings Salaries: Godinez 8.8k, Polastri 7.4k

Weight Class: 115

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a bit of a crossroads fight here for Loopy Godinez here as she will take on Julia Polastri this weekend.

Godinez comes from a wrestling background, and I consider her an average wrestler for WMMA. Godinez lands 2.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and has the cardio to land takedowns for a full 15 minutes. I think Godinez can continue to beat below-average grapplers consistently at this level with volume wrestling alone. Godinez isn’t a great submission grappler though and only has a couple of submission wins in her career.

Godinez has some decent boxing and a bit of pop in her hands. I actually quite like her power and she has a strong overhand right. She lands 4.16 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.69 in return. She can have issues with experienced strikers but overall, I don’t mind her on the feet. I guess she is just average. 

Godinez defends takedowns at 81 percent and has decent takedown defense overall. I liked the way she scrambled up vs Calvillo and Lookboonme when taken down as well. She did have her back taken while standing a couple of times vs Jessica Penne and Jandiroba got her back as well. However, I don’t consider her a liability defensively at all and she is generally tough to grapple.

Godinez will be taking on Julia Polastri. Polastri is a Brazilian fighter who is 13-4 professionally.  She made her UFC debut against Josefine Knutsson and lost a decision by generally losing the striking exchanges. Knutsson is a decent prospect and a good volume striker though so I don’t fault her much for that loss. 

Polastri most recently beat Cory McKenna by split decision. She basically beat McKenna on the feet and outlanded her 88-40 in significant strikes. She really dominated the first half of that fight in the clinch.  However, she was taken down in round three by McKenna and lost that round.

Polastri has also had two Contender Series fights. She lost to Jasmine Jasudavicius a few years back by getting outgrappled which is a forgivable loss. She then won by submission against Patricia Alujas to book her ticket to the UFC.

Polastri is a bit of a freestyle fighter. On the feet, she is competent and okay. She can mix in some punches and kicks and is pretty tough too. She has a decent front kick to the body too. She has some mild power. She can fight at an occasional high pace which she did against Patricia Alujas and landed a ridiculous 58 significant strikes in the first round. 

I still think Polastri is a bit basic on the feet though and can be hit plenty herself. She is just kind of okay as a striker. She is physical though and I do think she is good in the clinch and in close quarters.

Polastri can grapple a bit too. She can land some occasional takedowns and she seems competent in top position. She has a few submission wins in her career and I consider her competent on the mat.

Defensively as a grappler, I have questions about Polastri. She was outgrappled by Jasmine but there is no shame in that. In an LFA fight, she was taken down and held down for a bit which I did not like. Also, McKenna took her down with a double leg against the cage. Polastri couldn’t get up at all and I do question her get-ups a bit.

My instincts tell me that Polastri’s defensive grappling is okay but not good.

As far as this matchup goes, I have gone back and forth here. On the feet, I think this is competitive but I actually favor Polastri mildly. I think Polastri mixes in more strike diversity and just seems a little more polished as a striker. I especially think Polastri is more potent in close quarters. I think it will just be a bit back and forth on the feet with Polastri probably getting the better of a bit more exchanges.

I really do think Godinez has some grappling upside here though. Godinez has not been landing takedowns in her last few fights but it has come against Dern, Jandiroba, and Ricci. There is barely any point for Godinez to even try to take those girls down. Three of her other last seven fights have come against Calvillo, Hill, and Ducote. Those are three difficult girls to grapple too. 

I think Godinez has sneakily had very tough matchups lately for her to actually dominate on the mat. We have seen her absolutely murk almost every other fighter she has fought in the UFC on the mat. So when her competition has suspect tdd, she has really thrived.

This is arguably Godinez’s most wrestling friendly matchup she has had in years. I still think Polastri is a decent defensive wrestler, but I think Godinez can land some below the waist takedowns here if she attempts enough. I seriously think Polastri’s bottom game is suspect. Two or three takedowns for Godinez should honestly win her this fight. 

The issue is Godinez is a bit inconsistent with her takedown attempts. Against Elise Reed, she attempted five takedowns in a round and a half which is good. She only attempted three takedowns in 15 minutes against Ducote but Ducote is a good defensive wrestler. I do think Godinez has shown more willingness to wrestle against below-average grapplers. So when Godinez has the grappling edge, she seems to know it and go to that gameplan. Against strong grapplers like Jandiroba, Ricci, and Ducote, she has just tried to outstrike them which isn’t something I can blame her for too much.

Godinez is the better wrestler here against Polastri so I do tend to think she will attempt five takedowns or so. It’s just a guess though. I do think that will result in a couple of takedowns which will probably result in mild to moderate top time. So I am going to pick Godinez here. I just do not like Polastri’s get-up game.

This will probably be a competitive fight though and it borderline seems like a lock to go to the cards. Godinez will be the hometown fighter though which could help her on the cards. I am guessing we get a competitive fight on the feet with Godinez landing a couple of takedowns to steal the decision.

—

On DraftKings, I think both sides have some viability despite the matchup not rating super well.

Godinez is priced up to 8.8k which is unfortunate because she really needs grappling domination to come through.

I don’t think it’s extremely realistic, but wrestling should be an obvious game plan for Godinez here. It’s important to remember her recent matchups against Dern and Jandiroba are two of the toughest grappling opponents in the division. We’ve seen her land 5, 5, and 8 takedowns in past fights and that’s what we will need for Godinez to stand out.

In those wins, Godinez scored 128, 129 and 86. It’s still not a lock, but the point is, Godinez at least has a path to 5+ takedowns here and if she can reach that number, you’re likely going to want exposure.

She won’t rate out well in general at +525 to win ITD, and honestly, I think she could lose this fight if she doesn’t land a lot of takedowns. Her boxing volume won’t really matter. It’s all about wrestling volume.

I do think she’s shown enough upside in the past to warrant exposure here, but of course it does make sense to be cautious. I will prioritize other finishing options and it’s actually fine if you want to come in light on Godinez and just fade that high-volume wrestling path.

If those lower 9k options aren’t winning ITD though, I could see someone like Godinez squeezing into the optimal with 90-100 points on several takedowns. I consider her a reasonable secondary target.

Polastri at 7.4k is mildly interesting..

She’s going to rate out terribly in general with minimal wrestling equity and a +725 ITD line.

I do like her pacing though, and we’ve seen Godinez eat 100 sig. strikes multiple times. Godinez has also been taken down by five of her last nine opponents, so it’s possible Polastri could mix in 1-2 takedowns even if she does nothing with them.

In a competitive, higher paced decision, I could see Polastri scoring 80-90 points. She just scored 82 points in a fight she got held down for a while late.

At 7.4k, there is some floor viability here. I definitely think it makes sense to prioritize other options in general. Fighters above her have more win equity and there are some below her with more clear finishing paths.

A lot of the fighters priced below her kind of suck though, and won’t project for many points in a loss. So there’s some chance Polastri could contend with the optimal in an 80-point win at her price tag.

You probably don’t need much Polastri and she’s fine to come in light on considering her metrics. I wouldn’t fade her outright with a larger portfolio though and I do think she can make this fight competitive as long as she’s not being held down.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Godinez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Rafa Garcia vs. Vinc Pichel

Fight Odds: Garcia -495, Pichel +370

Odds to end ITD: +225

DraftKings Salaries: Garcia 9.5k, Pichel 6.7k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Rafa Garcia’s entering his 5th year on the roster and has been somewhat inconsistent, although he’s had to fight a handful of tough guys in there – he’s 4-4 in the UFC and 16-4 as a pro. Vinc Pichel’s one of the longer tenured lightweights on the roster and is entering his 13th year with the promotion. However, he’s been an inactive guy over his run, having only fought 11 times due to injury and other issues. He’s now at the not so ripe age of 42 and will be coming in on roughly five weeks’ notice to replace Joaquim Silva – he’s 7-4 in the UFC and 14-4 as a pro.

The striking component:

Garcia is a shorter, compact guy at 155 lbs., standing 5’7” but does possess a 70” reach which is longer than his general frame would suggest.    

The best way to describe his style is that he’s a pitbull in there. He’ll use a jab but primarily relies on overhands and hooks for his offense.    

His style does bring some more reckless components at times but he can be accurate and has shown power components as well, despite only one of his wins coming via KO.    

He’s often at a size disadvantage in his fights but he’s done a good job of being able to get inside with consistency. Garcia will take some shots but he’s an incredibly tough guy who’s shown pretty much iron clad durability.    

He lost a UD in his short notice debut to Haqparast, getting 2Xd on strikes, but I thought he made a decent account of himself all things considered.    

He actually won the first round on two judges’ cards but just couldn’t keep up with the volume, movement and technical striking of Haqparast – really no shame though as Haqparast is a top 25 guy at the weight class and just a horrible style matchup for Garcia.    

He had a strong start against Gruetzmacher, hurting him bad in the first but really slowed as the fight progressed with the constant pressure, volume and body work from Gruetzmacher. He lost the last two rounds – to his credit even being gassed, he was still throwing but it wasn’t enough as he took much more damage throughout the fight.    

He looked okay against Levy but did get outlanded at distance 45-31 and would say the bulk of the exchanges were won by Levy. Then he looked decent against Ronson, getting the better of the exchanges. He struggled with the clinch of Klose a bit and looked respectable on the feet against a bigger Maheshate. More recently, he volumed up Guida en route to a decision victory.    

Overall, he’s not a technical wizard but has shown he can not only hang but beat bigger strikers.

Pichel doesn’t come from a conventional striking background as he just started out in MMA in his 20s.

He’s a bit unorthodox on the feet in the sense that he’ll use a lot of movement, stance switching and works more of a blitz striking game. He’ll fight with his hands, throw from weird angles and target both legs of opponents with kicks.

He doesn’t push the craziest of paces, landing 3.7 SLpM at 46%, but his game has given opponents trouble in terms of being able to track him down consistently and get off on combos. Defensively, he only eats 3 SApM at 56%.

But the standup in a lot of his fights has been competitive, and Pichel has just been able to land the bigger shots which is what has aided him in some of these fights.

However, I don’t think he looked great on the feet against Madsen who’s a base wrestler and more recently got volumed up by Bonfim, getting outlanded 107-60 at distance and 80-26 to the head.

But Pichel has proven durable over his career having never been conventionally KO’d, and has generally shown good cardio over 15 minutes.

Overall, Pichel’s clearly lost a step in his latter years but in totality, he’s been game on the feet.

How it plays out: I think there’s some merit to Pichel in just skirting the outside and turning this into a tepid striking fight, but Garcia will be the guy marching forward, throwing more volume and has more big moment upside. An additional interesting stat is 77% of Garcia’s targets go to the head whereas only 46% of Pichel’s do. So even if Pichel gets a slower fight, I’d project the head strikes of Garcia to score more than the kicks of Pichel. There’s obviously just more macro downside to Pichel at his age in terms of getting hurt in comparison to Garcia as well.

The wrestling/grappling component:

Garcia’s only a BJJ purple belt but eight of his pro wins have come via submission.    

He’s shown some explosive wrestling in the past but has struggled with control at times on per TD basis. His wrestling was ultimately what was able to edge him the fight over Levy, landing seven TDs and getting five minutes of control. He also looked good in the Ronson fight which he won by submission. I also think a big part of that fight was how bad Ronson looked down at 155 lbs, and I think the cut really got to him.    

He had some early success against Klose and was able to grind on Maheshate. Nonetheless, he will proactively shoot TDs and be aggressive in hunting and taking backs – also has a heel hook finish to boot.    

We haven’t seen much of him on the bottom but in the times we have, he’s been scrambly, not willing to hang out there and works up very quickly.    

He did get his back taken in the Levy fight briefly though and is coming off getting dominated by Dawson on the ground. In his defense, Dawson’s one of the best ground fighters in the division so it was a tough matchup.   

Overall, despite the recent result, I’d classify the ground as more of a strength than a weakness for Garcia as he’s out controlling his opponents at a 4:1 ratio and has never been submitted. 

Pichel doesn’t come from a traditional wrestling background but his wrestling has been a stronger offensive component of his game in the UFC.

He hasn’t had extended wrestling success in all of his fights but he lands 2.8 TDs per 15 minutes at 54%.

He reps a BJJ black belt as well but he hasn’t been an overt submission threat as he’s largely looking for control or to land ground strikes. Wrestling was a big component in him winning his fights with Whitely, Njokuani, Roberts and Miller.

Defensively, he only stuffs at 26% which is pretty bad but that is skewed from his fights with Khabilov and Gillespie where he was taken down a total of 12 times by two elite wrestlers.

Miller had some success on him as well, as he was able to reverse once and land a couple TDs but Pichel also landed three and got more control time. Hubbard took him down on some reactionary stuff but couldn’t keep Pichel down. Conceding TDs against Madsen ultimately cost him that fight.

He’s gotten his back taken on a few occasions but has always shown good submission defense and has been able to work his way out of those positions – outside of when Gillespie was able to pass to mount and arm-triangle him.

Overall, three of Pichel’s four pro losses have had wrestling components against him but his offensive wrestling has been an added component of his UFC success.

How it plays out: I wouldn’t put Garcia on the same level as the guys who have outwrestled Pichel in the past but I’d still give him more upside in terms of TD pursuit and the guy who’s less likely to be grounded generally – 75% vs 26% TDD. But I’d also be surprised if Garcia just held Pichel down for tons of minutes and I doubt he’s submitting him – 4-5 minutes of control for Garcia is probably what I’d project assuming he’s proactively wrestling. In theory, Pichel could take Garcia down but I don’t see him keeping him there even if he does.

Meh fight, but I’ve always been a fan of both guys and all their losses have been pretty respectable. As touched on, I can see iterations of this fight where it plays competitively but I also think Pichel’s ceiling is probably a split decision because I don’t see him separating from Garcia or finishing him. Whereas I can see separation from Garcia as the guy to generally produce more effective offensive, coupled with the macro downside of Pichel at 42 giving Garcia more finish equity, despite the historic toughness of Pichel. Unfortunately, I think this is the end of the road for Pichel and we see him put his gloves down in the cage on Saturday.

—

On DraftKings, it’s going to be incredibly difficult to pay up for Garcia at 9.5k but that doesn’t mean he’s out of play.

Frankly, it’s shocking to see him at this kind of a price tag and I consider him an average or below-average talent at best. Pichel is tough and experienced so at face value I want no part of this.

However, there’s at least a few fighters in this range who are boom or bust, and I would not include Garcia in that category. Garcia has striking volume upside and wrestling upside, and if he can secure both + get a finish, he could smash.

Facing an old opponent who probably does retire after this fight at least gives Garcia some narrative upside. Maybe he can land 4-5 takedowns and earn some control. I think that’s well within reason.

Garcia has scored 87, 97 and 93 in his decision wins, which is solid. It’s not enough for 9.5k but it’s OK. But when he got a finish, he scored 115.

So I think largely you’re still betting on a finish for him to be optimal at this price tag, and he’s only +240 ITD. My guess is he will be contrarian though despite seeing the obvious age angle, it’s just tough to get much Garcia at this price tag.

I don’t want to completely write him off and I’ll likely just target the finishers in this range. However, I think Garcia has a pretty strong floor in a win that could even approach 90-100 points, and there’s a legit ceiling if he’s able to win ITD. I just wouldn’t bet on that.

For contrarian purposes, mixing Garcia is fine but I’ll probably be light by default.

Pichel at 6.7k probably isn’t worth playing.

My initial thought is that he can compete though. I don’t think that highly of Garcia. That probably just looks like a slower paced, competitive stand-up affair though and I don’t know if Pichel has much upside.

If he can land some takedowns, then maybe Pichel starts to become interesting. He can wrestle too. He’s taken down Bonfim and Jim Miller recently.. In a win I think Pichel probably does land a couple of takedowns.

So I guess I could see Pichel winning a close fight in which he scores 80-85 points. Obviously that would be OK at 6.7k at a low public ownership.

At the same time, he’s +1000 to win ITD. Odds indicate he’s a heavy dog. Upside isn’t guaranteed. Form isn’t guaranteed. I’d probably rather chase random finishes in this range if I was going to punt.

If you’re max entering I still think Pichel is OK but it’s really hard to justify much or any exposure to him with a limited portfolio, and I’d probably just cross him off if I’m only making a few lineups.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Garcia by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Jamall Emmers vs. Gabriel Miranda

Fight Odds: Emmers -383, Miranda +300

Odds to end ITD: -220

DraftKings Salaries: Emmers 9.1k, Miranda 7.1k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

Man, it is crazy to me that Jamall Emmers is 3-4 in the UFC. He is far too talented to be this inconsistent. He has traded wins and losses since he has entered the UFC and he lost his last matchup by knockout to Nate Landwehr. He’ll face Gabriel Miranda next.

I have always maintained a hard stance that Emmers is a good fighter. The issue with Emmers has been his fight IQ and perhaps his durability to a minor degree as well. I fully believe if Emmers would have zigged instead of zagged in a few fights, he could be nearly undefeated in this promotion. His last decision loss (although I thought the judges screwed him) against Jack Jenkins again showed bad fight IQ as Emmers decided to grapple a bit too late in that matchup. He still looked fine in that matchup skillfully though.

Other than fight IQ, Emmers is a promising fighter. He is a capable striker. He has a long frame and stands at 5’10” with a 74” reach. He lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.05 in return.

Emmers is just an athletic guy and has some moderate power, and can fight at a high pace. He actually outlanded Giga Chikadze 48-37 at distance so he is clearly a UFC level capable striker. He also showed his striking vs Ashkabov and kind of just dominated him on the feet. It was also nice seeing him display some power in his knockout win against Dennis Buzukja.

Emmers can also grapple, and he comes from a wrestling background. He lands 1.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and is capable of holding top position. I also consider him strong defensively as a wrestler and he defends takedowns at 90 percent. His defensive wrestling performance against Ashkabov was impressive. He stopped all six of Ashkabov’s takedowns.

I just generally consider Emmers a solid fighter. He can strike, he can wrestle, and he has solid cardio as well. He can win rounds in this division. Again, his issue is his fight IQ and he may have some durability issues as well as he has been knocked out a couple of times now.

Emmers will be taking on Gabriel Miranda. Miranda is basically a submission specialist. This guy is 17-7 professionally and 16 of his wins have come by submission, usually in round one. He has never won a decision in his entire career lol.

Miranda basically just comes out aggressively and tries to shoot takedowns and jump on any type of submission. His takedowns aren’t actually good though so sometimes he will just jump on a random guillotine attempt or try some type of submission in transition. He is certainly sloppy. He can easily give up takedowns himself, as well as position, and can be held down on the mat as well. I do think he is a dangerous submission grappler but he is surely a submission or bust fighter at the UFC level.

I still think Miranda is tricky early though. His back take on Shane Young was legit. Miranda pops in a body triangle quickly and he is tricky in his ways of finding the back. He did get dominated by Morgan Charriere in his most recent matchup. However, even in that fight, he took Charriere’s back at one point.

Miranda isn’t good on the feet. He will come forward and swing aggressively. However, outside of a random knockout, striking will not be a path to victory for him in the UFC. His defense is bad too and he is a knockout waiting to happen.

Miranda is basically just a submission or bust fighter. I do think he is dangerous though and he will finish some guys at the UFC level. I still think that is all he can do though, and his submissions likely have to come early as his cardio is suspect and he is just such a liability in the striking that he will get beaten up if fights extend.

As far as this matchup goes, Miranda is early submission or bust. On the feet, Emmers is WAY better and will honestly probably knock Miranda out if they stand for an extended period. Emmers is just leagues above him as a striker. Miranda would need to just wing a big shot early and hope it lands to do anything to Emmers on the feet.

Emmers is also definitely a better wrestler too, so Emmers has the tools to land takedowns if he wants even though that would probably be dumb. I also think Miranda will generally really struggle to get Emmers down consistently. So Emmers clearly has the striking and grappling to dictate and dominate this fight.

The issue is I do think Miranda’s back takes are a bit tricky and just one backtake could seriously put Emmers in big trouble. I do think a back take for Miranda is going to have to come early if it happens as Miranda gets really sloppy with his takedowns and back takes as the fight goes on. I won’t completely rule out an early submission for Miranda. It wouldn’t completely shock me. Emmers does just seem to find ways to lose too.

I still think Emmers should get this done though. He is much better than Miranda at mixing the martials. Emmers is the better fighter overall, and I think he has the skills to dictate this fight and eventually put Miranda away.

—

On DraftKings, I guess I am ready to be burned by Emmers again.

I’ve been a pretty big fan of his and backed him several times in the UFC. He’s come through, but also let me down, and I don’t think he’s particularly trustworthy anymore.

However, he’s talented and well-rounded and clearly better than Miranda. The dynamic here is fairly straightforward.

Emmers is priced up to 9.1k and is a strong play on paper. He has knockout upside, and he can likely land takedowns whenever he wants. He has multiple paths to score and a better chance to win ITD than he would have against a typical opponent.

Still, there is bust risk. If the fight extends or goes the distance, I would be worried about him not accruing enough points. Miranda could maybe take the back early and force Emmers to play defensively early.

Emmers is pushing -350 to win for a reason though and he’s -105 to win ITD which is decent. Miranda profiles as the type to continue to lose ITD and get hurt, and my best guess is that’s what will happen.

So I am personally willing to take chances on Emmers at 9.1k for knockout upside. He’s easier to fit in than some others top-tier targets, and he’s likely facing the most breakable opponent of the top grouping.

To me he’s a solid target in all formats, and I’d like moderate exposure. Again though, he doesn’t always fight the smartest, and he can be hurt. If he plays safe early and aims to win over the distance, he likely won’t be optimal. So you don’t have to prioritize him outright for that reason, I still just think his path to a finish is pretty realistic so I’m willing to take the plunge.

Miranda at 7.1k is a fine punt.

I don’t think I’ll end up with much exposure but Miranda has a very high ceiling. If he wins it likely comes in round one. Emmers has been hurt enough times now that who knows, maybe he just gets dropped with one random shot. He also famously murdered Pat Sabatini and dove straight into a leg lock attempt seconds later.. the guy can’t get out of his own way.

Because of that, and because I’ll also be on Emmers, I don’t mind a sprinkle of Miranda. He’s actually +285 to win ITD and rates out well from a finishing sense because of it. His odds to win feel very low to me and largely based on variance, but this is also the type of matchup where variance can come into play.

I think both sides will gain some traction this week for this reason and because the fight is -220 to end inside the distance. Don’t go too crazy with Miranda but some large field shares make sense, as does being in on this fight as a whole.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Emmers by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium-High)

MarQuel Mederos vs. Austin Hubbard

Fight Odds: Mederos -175, Hubbard +150

Odds to end ITD: +200

DraftKings Salaries: Mederos 8.7k, Hubbard 7.5k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Luke Lampe

Austin Hubbard was originally signed to the UFC back in 2019 but was cut from the promotion two years later after going 3-4. A few years after that, he was brought onto TUF 31 where he lost in the finals but was still signed. He’s now 1-2 in his second promotional stint where he may be on the chopping block again with a loss on Saturday – he’s 16-8 as a pro. MarQuel Mederos is a Contender Series alum from the 2023 season who made good on his debut back in February of 2024, albeit controversially – he’s 9-1 as a pro.

The striking component:

Hubbard’s a decent striker who works a kickboxing-esque type of game coupled with some nice clinch knees. Over the long term, he’s a guy who’s needed space and range to get off on his game, and generally needs to dictate the terms of the fight standing.   

The issue with his stand up historically is that he hasn’t consistently let his hands go and has been a slower starter – he dropped the first round in all seven of his fights in his 1st UFC stint. However, we have seen a stronger sense of urgency from him in the last 2-3 years, so it does appear that it’s something he’s worked on a bit.    

He lands 4.1 SLpM at 46% which are actually decent numbers considering strength of competition, coupled with the amount of grappling in his fights. Defensively, he eats 3.9 SApM at 57%.   

He’s never been finished via strikes, so he’s always been a tough guy but also hasn’t shown to be much of a power threat in the aggregate either, outside of buckling a few guys here and there.

Overall, I don’t mind Hubbard as a striker mechanically and if he has addressed the volume issues, he could realize more success in this 2nd stint. He’s still not a very good defensive striker though as a relatively wooden guy.

I’m unsure of Mederos’ official background but he originally came out of the Factory X camp in Colorado which shows in his striking style.

He’ll use a lot of stance switching, angle cutting, blitz boxing and is a proactive kicker — a semi similar style to fellow former teammates in Chris Gutierrez, Jonathan Martinez and Yusuff Zalal – he’s now down at the MMA LAB in Arizona though.

However, he’s not as outside based as those guys and does like to play within the lip of the pocket where he’s shown consistent volume patterns and some power to boot with six of his nine pro wins coming via KO/TKO.  

I still don’t fancy him as this big “one shot” guy per say though, and view him as more of an attritional guy who can pick up on reads and break guys down.  

Although, we did see him blast Isakov on Contender Series with a really well-timed knee off a TDA from the Russian – knees are an additional constant with the Factory X guys.  

But despite his movement patterns and footwork, I still have some issues with his defense as he keeps a pretty loose guard, so he is available to timed counter shots or straights.

We also saw Quinones have a lot of success with his left hand on Mederos in the debut – the distance strike counts were essentially evens and Mederos was the guy pushing forward most of the time, but Quinones outlanded him to the head 41 to 28. It was a close fight but I thought Quinones landed the better shots and deserved the nod there despite a unanimous final result in favor of Mederos.

He’s never been KO’d or significantly hurt in the fights I’ve seen but I have seen him get tagged on more than one occasion.  

Overall, I generally like what I’ve seen from Mederos standing to date as a good rhythmic striker, but I figure he’ll have some issues at a UFC level with more adept counter strikers with additional footwork, as he can still leave his head on the center line when coming in.  

How it plays out: I think the striking will be fairly competitive here as have been most of Hubbard’s recent fights with his give and take type of style. However, I do ultimately favor Mederos as the guy with better footwork and a speed advantage. Hubbard also doesn’t check kicks so I’d anticipate Mederos to land those without much problem. But as noted, he’s still got his own defensive issues and Hubbard making this more of a brawl could tighten up margins a healthy amount – problem is, Hubbard has shown very little ability to separate on the feet from any of his opponents.

The wrestling/grappling component:

This is where Hubbard struggled in his 1st stint but to his credit, the guys he was beaten by in this capacity are pretty high level – Ramos (world class Black Belt), Madsen (Olympic Grego Roman wrestler) and Solecki (another higher-level Black Belt who can wrestle offensively as well).   

However, his defensive grappling isn’t great as he will give his back and has struggled with grinding game plans in the past.    

He was actually able to have success on Bush who’s a grappler by nature, but Bush also took that fight on less than a week’s notice and gassed out after the 1st round. To be candid, it was somewhat embarrassing that Hubbard couldn’t finish on the mat given he was able to get into dominant positions a few times when Bush didn’t have much left in the tank.  

However, it does appear that he’s worked on his offensive and defensive wrestling in the past few years, as he’s found some success on the floor in securing and taking minutes/rounds in 5-6 of his last seven fights.

He got subbed by Holobaugh, but was winning the overall wrestling there and that was also partially a product of Holobaugh hurting him forcing a bad shot out of Hubbard to then set up a pretty slick armbar/triangle transition – Holobaugh is a BJJ black belt as well.  

Overall, I think Hubbard has gotten better on the ground, but I still feel he’ll struggle with stronger wrestlers but more specifically higher level jiu-jitsu guys. 

Mederos is a recently crowned BJJ purple belt but reps no pro wins via submission as a guy that generally likes to stand and strike.  

However, we did see him take a stronger wrestling approach in his fight against Murphy who was a taller fighter that got his respect on the feet.  

He was able to land multiple TDs throughout the fight and kind of grind the guy away. But he did lose position at one time in the 2nd round to where he got his back taken and wasn’t able to work out of the position – he did fight hands well though.

He shot five times on Quinones last time out but got stuffed on all attempts – he did accrue a healthy amount of cage control minutes though, despite not getting off many strikes. 

Outside of that, he’s shown pretty strong TDD, specifically on the Contender Series where Isakov did control him from the body lock but couldn’t ground Mederos – he’s stuffed shots in multiple other fights as well against base wrestlers regionally.  

Overall, for a guy that does prefer to strike, he appears to be competent on the ground, but I would like a larger sample.  

How it plays out: Both guys have shown some wrestling upside but assessing the ground is a bit tricky more so in who will be the more willing party. I’d probably say Hubbard but Mederos has good hips so he’ll be tough to take and also hold down from conventional positions. As noted, Hubbard hasn’t submitted anyone as well so that’s not much of a concern for me. In theory, Mederos could land some TDs as well but the guys that have outwrestled/outgrappled Hubbard are better ground fighters than Mederos so I think Hubbard should be able to work up if grounded.

This should be a fun striking fight here. I’ve always been anti Hubbard just because the guy can’t separate against anyone competent, and hasn’t legitimately finished anyone since 2018 which came with 15 seconds left of a five-round fight. But his pace is improving, he is tough to finish and has good cardio, so he always has a good floor in his fights despite his lacking ceiling. Mederos is a decent prospect who has some solid foundational tools and appears to be a solid athlete. But he’s still early in his career and needs some more seasoning. I lean to Mederos getting the job done more often than not but I see this being a competitive fight and consider Hubbard a live dog.

—

On DraftKings, this is not a fight that I am particularly passionate about and it’s one of the more likely fights to go the distance at -275.

With that said, it’s a bit tough to recommend a real investment in either side. Mederos is priced up to 8.7k and is coming off a 64-point decision, which doesn’t generate much excitement.

Sure, it’s possible he could knock Hubbard out but Hubbard is tough with strong cardio, and Mederos is only +325 to win ITD. Perhaps there is mild wrestling equity here but it’s tough to bet on.

Largely, I just consider Mederos a contrarian target. He’s not even one that I particularly like and I think you’re mostly betting on a random KO. Anything can happen in MMA so taking some shots on a sub 15% owned Mederos is viable for the purposes of being unique, but it’s still a tough outcome to achieve.

Hubbard is priced down to 7.5 and is probably the easier click of the two. If the fight is competitive, we could see Hubbard edge out rounds with cardio and maybe mix in a takedown or two.

The problem is he doesn’t carry much of a ceiling either unless he gets off more wrestling than expected. He’s actually scored well enough in his wins in the UFC, including 84 and 96 points in his last two decisions, but again they both came with takedowns and control.

At 7.5k, against a relatively inexperienced pro, Hubbard isn’t the worst target. He at least has some win equity here and could exceed value.

He is only +500 to win ITD though and doesn’t really profile to win the fight cleanly. You’d just be hoping for a competitive decision that leans in his direction. Again, for the price and low ownership, Hubbard is fine as a lower-end secondary target, but he’ll be difficult to prioritize outright.

It always makes me nervous to be light on early prelim fights but this one just doesn’t rate out super well. I’m more likely to click Hubbard for the price but Mederos should be contrarian, and both fighters have ceiling question marks.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mederos by Decision (Confidence=Low)