UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy (3/21/26)

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

MAIN CARD

Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy

Fight Odds: Evloev -240, Murphy +205

Odds to end ITD: +175

DraftKings Salaries: Evloev 8.9k, Murphy 7.3k

Weight Class: 145

We have an awesome top contender fight in the featherweight division between two undefeated stars in Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy.

Evloev has been one of my favorite prospects in this division since he debuted in 2019, and I’ve always been a huge fan of his grappling skills. He’s a fantastic chain wrestler, and currently averages 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at 9 takedowns landed against Dawodu and Ige.

Evloev lacks the physicality necessary to run through his competition, and if anything, I think that lack of physicality will eventually be his downfall. But conversely, his lack of explosiveness allows him to sustain his energy better, and contributes to his ability to pursue takedowns at a moderate pace for an extended length of time.

It’s more than pure pacing though, Evloev has a wide variety of wrestling attacks, and his ability to pursue them and chain them together is typically what separates him. One of my favorite examples of this came in his fight with Dawodu in 2021. 

In one of the first wrestling sequences, Evloev dives in on the front leg, tries for the head outside single twice, but Dawodu is balancing so Evloev lifts and trips him to the mat. Dawodu immediately scrambles up and Evloev runs through a double leg to get to the cage and secure the body lock. He then transitions to a double leg against the case and switches to the back when Dawodu defends. Dawodu stands back up and Evloev drags him to the center of the cage, lifts and slams him to transition to the back ride again.

This all happens within the span of 45 seconds, and the point here is that Evloev’s depth of wrestling skill is really fantastic, and his understanding of how to chain attempts together makes him an exhausting wrestling style to deal with.

With that said, Evloev isn’t a very dangerous finisher in any capacity, and he’s never won ITD in any of his nine UFC bouts. His lack of physicality contributes a bit to his inability to control opponents on the mat or take fully dominant positions where the finish would materialize.

I personally love round winners, and Evloev is amongst the best in the division, but it would also be nice if he could pursue the finish more often because winning rounds consistently against the best fighters in the world is still a difficult challenge.

To his credit, Evloev is not purely a wrestler and he can also box. He isn’t extremely powerful, but he’s technically fine and he can throw basic strikes like the jab. At distance he lands 5.60 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.16 which is a pretty strong ratio. He is also absorbing 2.66 sig strikes per minute in total with a 60 percent defensive rate, which I like.

Evloev isn’t going to run away on the feet, but he’s always more competitive there than you’d expect. It simply contributes to his round winning potential and makes it so that EVEN IF you defend his takedowns and get a couple minutes of boxing time, you’re not likely to clearly win there either unless you can land one huge shot.

His next opponent will be Lerone Murphy, who I’d label as more of an athletic striker. He’s coming off an insane, highlight reel KO win over Aaron Pico whom he knocked dead with a spinning back elbow in the second round.

Somewhat surprisingly, that’s one of Murphy’s only KOs in the UFC. He TKOd a gassed out Makwan Amirkhani in 2021, as well as Ricardo Ramos in 2020, but that’s it.

It’s simply surprising because I do consider Murphy to be dangerous and carry a lot of power. He’s also had some really strong performances, like against Edson Barboza in the main event in 2024, whom he outlanded 220 to 79 over five rounds.

Murphy is also very resilient. He can be taken down, he can be hurt, but he does not quit and he comes back to fight competitively, which is a great attribute to have.

In total, Murphy is landing 4.48 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 2.51 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate. He’s often in more slow paced fights, and hasn’t always been on the higher end of the volume spectrum, but again he’s shown some promise there recently.

Obviously we need to discuss his wrestling a bit more because that is what kind of attack he will likely face against Evloev, and it is a bit difficult to come away thinking Murphy can put up much defense.

I actually think Murphy’s get-up game is decent, and is what will aid him in winning this fight is he’s able to get his hand raised. His defensive takedown game is pretty poor though.

Murphy currently defends takedowns at 51 percent, and he’s been taken down 4 or more times by four different opponents in the UFC. He’s still never lost, but many people including myself do believe he should have lost to Gabriel Santos in 2023. That fight was also at home in London where this matchup will take place.

Even in 2025, Josh Emmett took him down four times in the main event and controlled him for nearly four minutes. I posted a picture this week of Emmett lifting Murphy straight over his head like a god and slamming him down to the mat. Again, Murphy does well to limit control and scramble, but he simply does not defend takedowns well.

That’s really where the rubber meets the road here. Evloev is projected for 5.5 takedowns across most books and I lean toward the over. Evloev is attempting nearly 10 takedowns per 15 minutes, and in a 25 minute fight, we’re likely to see 15 takedown attempts or more. Murphy is defending takedowns at 51 percent and I think Evloev could easily find his way to 8-10 takedowns landed if he pursues that attack.

That’s less about the prop play specifically and more about the fact that if I’m projecting Evloev to land that many takedowns, I obviously believe he has a good chance to win three rounds. Now, Murphy is still only conceding 3.5 minutes of control time per 15 minutes which is good, and if he can constantly get back to his feet, he can win.

Especially at home in London, ugh, we’ve seen weird decisions here before. There’s also some narrative with Evloev having a long layoff due to a virus, and training through Ramadan. If Murphy simply gives up 5 takedowns, gets right back up and forces this into a striking match, he could definitely win. Even if it’s still not a clean win, if the crowd is going crazy every time he lands a jab or a kick, I could see this decision getting weird.

From a projection standpoint, it’s hard to get there on Murphy. Evloev will land takedowns, will control him for stretches and will force an uphill battle. Even on the feet, I’d project this to be competitive. Murphy can land the bigger shots but it’s been difficult to hit Evloev hard, or hit him often.

I think the most likely outcome is Elvoev kind of drags Murphy around the Octagon for the better part of 25 minutes, but doesn’t fully dominate with control and still allows Murphy to strike for stretches of time. It could be competitive enough to where Murphy wins a round or two, but I have to favor the better combo game of Evloev.

I’ll also note that Evloev is pushing 70 percent to win but is still an essential pick’em to win by decision, and I don’t really understand the 20 percent gap there. Evloev has 0 finishes in the UFC and Murphy has never lost, let alone been finished. I’d much rather take a stab on Evloev to win by Decision at that price, which I believe is the most likely outcome of the matchup.

—

On DraftKings, Evloev is priced at 8.9k and is clearly among the best plays on this slate.

We’ve seen a fighter in back-to-back events land as many or more takedowns than they have significant strikes, and they’ve utterly smashed. Control doesn’t even matter at that point if you’re landing 15-20 takedowns.

While I don’t think we can project Evloev for 20 takedowns, this rates out as a really strong spot for Evloev to rack them up. Murphy is just bad enough at defending takedowns but just good enough at scrambling, that I think Evloev has a shot to put up absurd totals in a win, and his floor is going to project very strongly as well.

Evloev is averaging 24.1 DK points scored per 5 minutes which is elite and would project for about 150 DK points in a win if he maintained that total. Needless to say, we need nothing close to that for him to be optimal at 8.9k.

The downside here is related to the wrestling.. If Evloev doesn’t wrestle much, then his ceiling is very capped. If he only lands 70 sig. strikes, 5 takedowns, and earns 5 minutes of control in a win, he’d score 90-100 DK points. Honestly, he’d still probably hit 100 DK points in that outcome with non-significant strikes.

I guess the point remains in that Evloev isn’t a lock for 150 points. He could score 100 points. On a 14 fight slate, that may not be enough at 8.9k. Considering he should be one of the heaviest owned fighters on the entire slate, there’s a case to be made in large fields that you can pivot off on occasion to be unique.

From a pure projection standpoint, I just think his floor is extremely safe in a win, and his ceiling is likely unmatched. I think he can reach 8-10 takedowns a fair amount of the time, earn closer to 10 minutes of control, and suddenly that’s 110 DK points or more. He’s only +300 to win ITD but I’d probably prefer he win by decision to reach a ceiling.

There is a strong group of finishers priced at the top this week, so playing more stars/scrubs is viable and could work a percentage of the time. Evloev will clear everyone else from a base projection and ceiling projection and at 8.9k, he’s worth moderate exposure or more.

Murphy is priced at 7.3k and rates out more as a leverage target than anything else.

While yes he’s a secondary target on paper for main event status and win equity, Evloev just doesn’t yield a ton of fantasy points. Evloev is only allowing 10.8 DK points per 5 minutes and a good portion of that has come from two opponents (Aljo/Grundy) who took him down 6 times each. Murphy is only scoring 15.4 DK points per 5 minutes which is on the low end.

Over 25 minutes, Murphy still projects to put up a fine floor, and he’d be a cash game consideration for a cheap price tag. I’m not dying to roster him otherwise because his wrestling will be limited, his striking volume will be limited, and he’s +650 to win ITD.

Essentially my fear is that Murphy’s realistic win scenario may actually still be giving up 5 or more takedowns, but winning three ugly rounds where he lands 70 strikes total. I wouldn’t put it past him to score 60 points in a five round win. I’m just not seeing his real upside unless you believe he can KO Evloev.

With that said, putting him into the secondary category is still justifiable. He won’t be nearly as popular and will be direct leverage against Evloev. He does carry power and he could hurt Evloev. It’s not impossible. It’s just not really an outcome I want to bet on.

There are a handful of other dogs in this range I clearly prefer, and that will limit my ownership to Murphy, but mixing him in occasionally with a larger portfolio still makes sense as a way to be different.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Evloev by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)

Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell Jr.

Fight Odds: Riley -195, Aswell +170

Odds to end ITD: +105

DraftKings Salaries: Riley 9.1k, Aswell 7.1k

Weight Class: 145

The UFC is fully behind the Luke Riley bandwagon, as the young prospect will already get a co-main event at home in London against a fun opponent in Michael Aswell.

Riley is coming off a knockout win over Bogdan Grad in his UFC debut last November, and although I was pretty high on him coming into that matchup, I think a fair dose of skepticism is necessary.

Riley is 12-0 professionally and he’s earned nine wins by knockout and three by decision. He’s an English Cage Warriors product and fights out of the same gym as Paddy Pimblett.

Riley reminds me very much of Nathaniel Wood, and although they aren’t the exact same type of fighter, I think Riley can be an immediate mainstay in this division with his striking.

Riley is a kickboxer, and he likes to take the center of the cage. He works at a very high pace, and he will attack multiple levels. I wouldn’t say he’s a super powerful striker and he’s not going to get many one-shot kills, but he can beat you up over the course of three rounds and he’ll carry real finish equity via attrition.

Particularly, I like that Riley is fast, and he seems to stay safe at distance, at least in comparison to Wood who would always go to war on the regionals, I haven’t really seen Riley hurt.

This division is very strong so Riley isn’t going to have a championship ceiling, but he looks like a super legit kickboxer who can compete in rounds and do some damage.

I thought the main question mark for him entering the UFC would come on the mat, although I liked what I’ve seen there from him on the regionals with his ability to mostly keep fights upright. He was taken down a couple of times in his most recent regional win, but he scooted back to the cage and wall walked up, and eventually TKOd his opponent who got tired of wrestling with him.

In other situations, I’ve seen him scramble and take the back, and it looks like he’s well trained on the mat. I don’t think he’s a great submission grappler and I’ve really never seen him force offensive wrestling exchanges, but I don’t think he’s an extreme wrestling liability either.

In his UFC debut, Riley was taken down four times by Grad in the first round and ended up losing the round. I credit Grad being a physical opponent, and Riley still showed an adequate get-up game. But I have to admit it makes me nervous. I do think strong wrestlers will beat him and it’s something I’m keeping in the back of my mind moving forward.

Despite losing that first round, which took place almost solely on the mat and in grappling exchanges, Riley knocked Grad down early in the second and then knocked him out cold with ground-and-pound shortly thereafter.

Overall, Riley just looks like a lot of fun. He’s the right combination of skill and pacing, and I think he’ll be in a lot of fun fights where he can get his hand raised.

His next opponent is Michael Aswell, who coincidentally lost to Grad on DWCS 2024.

That was a firefight, and Aswell landed 155 significant strikes, but gave up 102 to Grad along with three takedowns, ultimately losing a close split decision. He then fought and lost to Bolaji Oki in his UFC debut, and lost another competitive fight, landing 118 sig strikes while absorbing 136.

Most recently, Aswell knocked Lucas Almeida out in the first round last October. There was late line movement toward Aswell with rumors of a hand injury for Almeida, which proved to be true, but I don’t hold that against Aswell in any way as he still fought aggressively, forced boxing exchanges and got the job done.

Aswell is now 11-3 professionally with six wins by knockout and five by decision, and I mostly consider him a pace striker.

He trains out of a good camp with Joshua Van and Alden Coria, and probably is improving because of it.

It’s still hard to project Aswell to become anything legitimate in the UFC because he doesn’t have a ton of tools. He doesn’t wrestle at a high pace, and he’s absorbing 7.79 significant strikes per minute. He doesn’t carry a high floor of win equity in any particular matchup.

With that said, he’s tough and difficult to finish. If you choose to strike with him, we know he will throw volume, and he’s currently landing 9.56 sig strikes per minute. It at least gives him a chance to win striking rounds, and as we saw against Almeida, he can hurt you if you let him.

I honestly think he has a chance here against Riley, despite being high on Riley, I wouldn’t be confident playing him as a -300 favorite in this matchup. (Since writing he’s dropped to -195)

I do think we’ll see these two strike. Neither implement a wrestling heavy attack, and both are fine enough defensively to get back to their feet on occasion if they need to.

In a striking fight, Riley is the more technical boxer, and the more effective fighter. He’s better defensively. I do think Aswell fights at a higher pace and probably has more volume upside of the two.

While I think Riley is more likely to have moments, and more likely to hurt Aswell, I could definitely see Aswell being competitive on a per round basis and I wouldn’t think it a crazy outcome if he won two rounds.

Aswell is hittable, but he’s durable. So it’s tough to project Riley to immediately go out there and knock him out. Both fighters who’ve beaten Aswell recently landed 100 significant strikes or more, which Riley is possibly capable of but is likely toward the upper end of his volume range.

I’m going to take Riley fighting at home, as the more efficient boxer with better defense. He has some knockout equity. I kind of think this fight will be competitive though due to Aswell’s pacing and toughness.

—

On DraftKings, I’m honestly not that high on Riley in this spot at 9.1k.

What you can argue for him is what I tried to argue for Delgado in the last fight card, being that Aswell will push a pace. If Riley wins by 1st round KO, it should come with additional pacing that allows for a high end score. It is possible.

At the same time, Aswell has never lost by KO, and the fight is -135 to go the full 15 minute distance. Riley is only +175 to win ITD. I’m not even sure a late knockout would get the job done on a 14 fight slate.

I also think Evloev, Pinto, Kondra and Baraniewski are in a tier above Riley in terms of scoring potential. While the latter three names are more expensive, I’d rather pay up for them when I am able to.

Riley only scored 87 in his UFC debut which I think will scare the field away as well. It honestly means nothing because that first round took place on the mat which killed off his score, but separately, Riley is not necessarily a RD 1 KO artist. 

I think he’s an acceptable contrarian target this week because he can win ITD against a hittable opponent, but I’m also not picking him to win by RD 1 KO at a super high rate.

Aswell is priced at 7.1k and rates out well for the savings, especially as his odds to win are climbing.

My guess is that Aswell will project fine for floor purposes and will be a cash game consideration this week for the savings. He could land 60-100 sig strikes and lose a decision. He could also land that much and win a decision.

He’s up from +250 to +170 to win now and is +425 to win ITD. I honestly like him a little bit though for the reasons explained in the matchup portion. If this is just a kickboxing fight, which I expect, rounds could be competitive.

For the savings and pace, I like Aswell a little bit this week. The mid/upper 7ks have some intriguing names and much more win equity, so that’s where I’d prefer to go, but that won’t necessarily allow you to spend up.

When you need salary relief, Aswell is at least a viable secondary target and I could see him getting some love publicly coming off a 123 point score. I wouldn’t go crazy on ownership if he projects to be popular but I prefer him ahead of every 6k option.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Riley by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson

Fight Odds: Page -185, Patterson +160

Odds to end ITD: -170

DraftKings Salaries: Page 8.6k, Patterson 7.6k

Weight Class: 170

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a random welterweight contest here between Michael Venom Page and Sam Patterson. I do want to point out that these guys have trained together extensively. 

Apparently Page didn’t want the matchup and wanted to fight higher up the ladder but Patterson did want the fight. I have no idea how any of this will factor into the fight but wanted to point it out.

Page made his UFC debut in March of 2024 against Kevin Holland and won a clean decision. He outlanded Holland 41-29 in significant strikes and did a good job of being defensively sound and frustrating Holland. He then lost to Ian Garry by getting outgrappled. 

Page then defeated Shara Magomedov by decision but only outlanded Magomedov 43-38 in significant strikes. Page skated around Magomedov in the first couple of rounds and was too defensive for Magomedov. However, in round three, Magomedov pressured more and started having more success.

Page most recently beat Jared Cannonier, outslicking him defensively in the first two rounds in a low volume affair. He outlanded Cannonier 29-20 in significant strikes. In round three he was taken down and outgrappled though.

Before his UFC debut, Page had a successful Bellator career. Page is 24-3 professionally. Page is a striker through and through. He is long and awkward and comes from a kickboxing and sport karate background. He uses a very unorthodox and a highly explosive point striking style. He will bounce on the outside, and blitz in and land devastating strikes. He will land all limbs as well including knees. He loves his dart-in straight punch as well, it is a trademark of his. 

In a striking fight, I think Page is quite good and hard to deal with. I also like his defensive striking a lot. He rarely gets landed on while on the feet and he frustrated Holland, Magomedov, and Cannonier badly. He also has knockout power. He can be in very low volume contests when he is fighting a competent striker though. This happens because Page more so focuses on defense when the contest is more competitive. If Page has a big advantage on the feet then he is much more aggressive and will go for the finish.

The issue with Page is he is not the best defensive grappler. He lost to Logan Storley and even Paul Daley had success grappling him. I do think Page has improved his defensive grappling though, and I don’t think he is as vulnerable on the ground as other people think. However, a good grappler can take advantage of Page and Ian Garry recently did. So did Cannonier in round three.

Page is just a tough puzzle. He is an awkward striker and explosive. He is also just hard to track down so he is theoretically live to win any striking fight.

Page will be taking on Sam Patterson. Patterson is 14-2-1 professionally. Patterson has had a bit of a weird UFC career. He is 4-1 in the UFC and all of his fights have ended in round one. He has had some good performances including knocking out Danny Barlow but a lot of his competition has been poor and his KO loss against Ashmouz was concerning.

Patterson is a pretty dangerous guy. He is long and a bit too upright for my liking on the feet, but he has that tall man power and can absolutely hurt opponents. I still am skeptical of his defense, and he will likely get knocked out again. I also am not too confident in him in an extended striking fight. I don’t think he is some sort of defensive striking savant. However, he has some danger and I respect that.

Patterson is also pretty dangerous on the mat. He has seven submission wins, and I consider him a pretty dangerous submission grappler. He can take the back and has a solid RNC. He is opportunistic too and will take advantage of hurt opponents.

I still don’t know how good of an actual offensive or defensive wrestler Patterson is. He lands 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and hasn’t had to really wrestle anyone good thus far.

As far as this matchup goes, I definitely favor Page as the extended fight striker. I think Page is way better defensively and will be too evasive and tricky for Patterson. Page honestly may knock Patterson out as Patterson is aggressive and a bit hittable. Perhaps Patterson can hurt Page, but I am leaning against it unless Page gets gassed out or something.

I think Patterson’s best chance is on the mat where Page has been exploited before and where Patterson is clearly dangerous. The issue is I don’t think Patterson’s actual wrestling is great to consistently get Page down easily. So I am going to go with Page in this matchup to defend the takedowns enough and win the fight standing by decision or KO.

I still think Page is kind of bad on the mat so Patterson may just need one single takedown to make this interesting so I am not completely counting Patterson out.

—

On DraftKings, this is a tricky fight.

I’ve been quite low on Patterson up until this point and I’ve been burned by him. I don’t think he’s a great wrestler, and his striking defense is pretty concerning. I actually picked him to get knocked out in both of his recent wins.

Page is obviously a better striker than him, far more experienced and far more defensively sound. Page barely throws any volume though, and Patterson has done better than I expected finding the chin of his opponents.

I do think Page can hurt Patterson and win by KO, and I also think he can win an extended striking affair. I wouldn’t put it past Patterson to create some variance and hurt Page too. I’m not sure what to think of them training together but a lot of times those fights play out more cautiously than we expect.

Unfortunately, to play Page, you’re going to have to take a massive gamble. He’s scored 52, 49 and 43 DraftKings points in his three wins. The only possible way he’s exceeding value is with a quick knockout.

The thing is, he’s still capable of them. He’s +160 to win ITD here and Patterson has been KOd by 4 foot 7 inch tall Yanal Ashmouz. I think a KO is pretty in play for Page.

You need to give yourself opportunities to win by KO, in order to actually win by KO, which comes in the form of volume, and Page doesn’t excel there. So it’s a really tough spot to rely on and I do think we could see another slow early round.

Page is likely to be very contrarian though at 8.6k. The public will not play into bad box scores and I think it’s possible Page is less than 15 percent owned. Because of that, he rates out as a viable contrarian option.

I don’t blame you for wanting to avoid this spot. I don’t blame you for wanting some action on this spot. It’s ultra boom or bust and I have no real faith Page is going to come through. On paper, it’s not the worst spot to be different but you ultimately have to cap your exposure given the insane bust risk past round one.

Patterson on the other hand will likely be chalk.

He has scored 100, 107, 101 and 98 in his wins, and at 7.6k, he will draw a lot of attention. We saw Bruno Silva at 34 percent last week on a 14 fight slate and I think Patterson will be in that similar range.

I do understand it to a degree. If Patterson wins, it probably is a finish. He could hurt Page, and more likely could find some ground success. While I don’t think he’s a great wrestler, Page has been taken down twice in three of his four UFC matchups. One takedown from Patterson could be the round, or the fight.

Patterson is +210 to win ITD here and rates out pretty well overall. If I had to force an opinion against the field, it would probably be to get away from him because the pacing sucks and Page obviously is tough to beat and finish.

However, the pure upside for Patterson is still legit, and most likely he’ll be tough to avoid. I’ll likely just end up playing him near the field percentage and trying to find edges elsewhere on the slate.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Page by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane

Fight Odds: Baraniewski -600, Lane +425

Odds to end ITD: -1200

DraftKings Salaries: Baraniewski 9.5k, Lane 6.7k

Weight Class: 205

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with a fun clash at 205, as Austen Lane drops down to take on the surging Iwo Baraniewski in a fight that is bound to deliver some action. Let’s dive in.

Iwo Baraniewski came out of nowhere last year to become one of the most exciting light heavyweight prospects. He made his debut on the Contender Series last year as an underdog to a solid prospect, where he pulled off the upset and landed a big KO shot in just 20 seconds. 

He followed that up with a fight against Ibo Aslan and put on one of the most entertaining 90 second scraps you’ve ever seen, which was just pure chaos. He was rocked early, knocked down, survived an onslaught from Aslan, and then got some space, eventually landing big shots of his own and getting two knockdowns en route to a massive first round KO. 

He is now 7-0 with a 100% finish rate split between five KOs and two submissions, all coming in the very first round. With this 100% finish rate and early KOs in the UFC, you’d think he’s a boom or bust power striker, but regionally it was his ground game where he had the most success. 

Yes, he does have plenty of power in his hands. His smaller 6 foot frame allows him to swing heavy in close but also grab the hips and toss you. He is a black belt in Judo and has great hip tosses and ability to work in the clinch. From there, he has solid ground-and-pound on top, but also the ability to submit you, albeit he’s not as technically versed in that realm. 

His cardio is untested, with only first round victories, but he has an extensive amateur history where he was able to go three rounds and win decisions on multiple occasions, albeit with them being three-minute rounds. 

It’s also important to note he has competed at heavyweight and open weight before, showing he can compete against bigger fighters, but has a frame more suited for light heavyweight. 

Defensively, he can be hit and we saw Aslan rock him early. The defensive tendencies are a worry and I know he can be finished, but he also showed great resolve and I was a fan of his resiliency in that matchup. 

Overall, Iwo is a solid Judoko with incredible power, judo throws and ground-and-pound. I still have questions about his striking defense, minute winning ability and cardio, but we know he is a true finishing threat, especially early.

Austen Lane has struggled to find his footing in the UFC but looks to turn things around this weekend. He has been fed to the wolves so far in his UFC career. 

The former defensive end played 30 games over four seasons with multiple teams in the NFL before he transitioned to MMA in 2015. Although he showed decent promise on the regional scene with pure athleticism and power, he has struggled to translate it under the UFC banner. 

He is 1-4 in the UFC after going 1-1 on the Contender Series, and has been finished in all five of those UFC losses. He was KO’d by Greg Hardy in 57 seconds, KO’d by Tafa in 82 seconds, finished in round 2 by both Pinto and Diniz and then was most recently submitted by Vitor Petrino in the first round. 

The chin is certainly a liability, as he has been finished in all seven of his pro losses with six of them coming by KO, including five losses in the first round. I feel bad outlining all the losses, but it is important to note that he can be hurt. His striking is extremely slow and he can be countered with ease. Now, dropping to 205 for the first time, I worry his chin and his lack of speed will only be more noticeable. 

Offensively, his best attribute is his physicality and athleticism. He is 6’6 with an 80” reach and does have solid power when he connects. He got his one UFC win against Robelis Despaigne, where he was able to land three TDs and control him for nien minutes as a large underdog. That will most likely be his best path to winning fights. 

Sure he can land big shots on the feet but he’ll often be at a speed and durability disadvantage, meaning he’ll have his best path on the mat. He isn’t the best grappler himself but with his NFL past, he can shoot okay blast double legs and lay on top of people. 

Overall, Austen Lane may be in a do or die fight for his UFC career and although he is dropping to light heavyweight, it might make his already susceptible chin and slow hand speed more noticeable. He’s a fighter who will struggle to win fights in the UFC unless he is able to land a big shot or has a clear wrestling/physicality edge over his opponent. 

Poor Austen Lane man. I just feel a little bad for him. He has fought a lot of power punchers at heavyweight and has been finished brutally many times. Now he’s dropping to 205 where he will only be slower and more susceptible to damage, and he gets one of the more dangerous strikers in this division. I just feel bad. 

Iwo should win this fight at a very high clip and the line reflects that. He will be quicker in the striking, have more power and better durability. Even with Lane’s best path in the wrestling, I do think he will have a tough time taking down a black belt Judoko in Iwo who should also have the edge there. 

So of course there’s the odd chance Lane can land a big shot on Iwo, but I think it’s a slim outcome. I still want to see Iwo’s cardio tested but I don’t think this is the matchup. He hits harder, will be quicker and is better in the clinch, and I think he is able to hand Lane yet another RD1 KO loss. Give me Baraniewski to only add to his highlight reel this weekend.

—

On DraftKings, Iwo is one of a few fighters at the top of the board with insane ITD potential.

I also think there’s a good chance he’s the most popular of the three. Iwo is priced at 9.5k, so he’s a slight discount compared to the others, and he has the best box score. He’s coming off the round of the year KO over Aslan which scored him 120 DK points, and the public also knows Lane as being vulnerable to be finished.

Iwo is -600 to win ITD and he’ll rate out as an elite target. The real difficulty is that there is just a lot of variance in picking who will stand out. Yes, Iwo can win by early KO but 110 is a more likely score than 120. If he scores 110 and we have 3 other 110 scores in the 9k range, who is optimal?

It’s also worth reiterating he was dropped and badly hurt in his UFC debut. If he’s going to hunt for the kill, his wins will be spectacular, but he’ll also lose. Lane is not inept.

Lane has also survived early exchanges with some big hitters. He actually won the first round against Pinto and hurt him.. He lasted to round two with Diniz. He beat Despange.

Conversely, he’s been KOd dead a few times, and he’s been KOd early in the first round a couple of times. It’s difficult to pick any other outcome than an early KO for Iwo.

In summary, Iwo will be among the premier targets on the slate on paper. But I don’t necessarily view him as a clear stand out compared to Pinto, Kondra, or Pericic who all project to win early ITD. There’s some pricing concerns, and I also think there’s a chance Iwo comes in much higher owned than one or both guys priced above him.

I’ll likely aim for moderate exposure here and I expect a big score, but a big score doesn’t guarantee that he’s on the optimal lineup.

Lane is priced at 6.7k and is probably worth a couple of darts.

Again, if Iwo is going to fight as recklessly as he did in his debut, we’ll see him get hurt. He was just hurt. Lane can throw strikes and has some power.

Even if the only outcome for Lane in a win is a random early KO, I don’t think that’s an impossible outcome. He’s still 15-20 percent implied to win despite being a big dog.

I obviously do not want to invest much in Lane this weekend but if I was playing large fields with a large portfolio, process wise, I do think throwing a couple of darts on Lane makes sense for the hectic nature of the matchup and the direct leverage against Iwo.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Baraniewski by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=High)

Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan

Fight Odds: Duncan -500, Dolidze +385

Odds to end ITD: -140

DraftKings Salaries: Duncan 9.3k, Dolidze 6.9k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a high-stakes middleweight clash here between the veteran Roman Dolidze and the rising British star Christian Leroy Duncan.

Dolidze had won three straight fights to earn a main event against Anthony Hernandez last August, where he was shut down completely and finished.

Dolidze is not a very process-oriented fighter, meaning he does not win many minutes as he is not the best round winner. While his output has ticked up recently, he still isn’t a great technical striker.

Dolidze lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 3.72 in return, sporting a mediocre 48 percent striking defense. He was easily getting outstruck by Jack Hermansson before finding openings.

Furthermore, Dolidze isn’t a great takedown or positional wrestler either. He averages just 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 39 percent accuracy rate. He is somewhat heavy on top though and is a capable and tricky submission grappler, so he can find opportunities and beat guys on the mat. I still don’t love his wrestling and takedowns though.

However, Dolidze is a tough dude who doesn’t get finished often. So he generally gets 15 minutes to make something happen. He is a good finisher too; while he isn’t a massive hitter on the feet, he has some pop and is a dangerous submission grappler capable of ending fights at this level. Dolidze still seems like a finish-or-bust fighter against anyone good.

Duncan is a British fighter who is 13-2 professionally, with a significant portion of his early career spent in Cage Warriors, a decent regional promotion.

Duncan is a striker who is dangerous at range. He doesn’t look to grapple much. He switches stances and mixes in a lot of kicks. He controls range pretty well and has knockout power. He is a bit hittable, and I do think as he gets steps up in competition, his striking defense will probably be exposed. However, I do think he can win fights on the feet by knockout and by decision at this level and he is certainly dangerous. I also think he is improving.

He is now 5-2 in the UFC and is landing 4.60 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.97. Most of his wins have come vs extremely poor competition though. He did recently knock out Anders and Tulio though which were some good wins.

Duncan also has decent first layer TDD. It isn’t perfect, and he did get taken down and controlled a bit by Gregory Rodrigues. I have seen him held down here and there in other matchups too. Even Petrosyan took him down. However, he is tough to actually ground and keep grounded. I think he can mitigate the grappling of plenty of guys and is currently defending takedowns at 69 percent. 

Above-average grapplers can have success against him though and he does get clinched up a bit. His TDD isn’t perfect but not awful. Offensive wrestling doesn’t look to be a major path to victory for him but he can land a takedown here and there.

As far as this matchup goes, I am siding with Duncan because he is the much better, more technical striker and is way better on the feet. Dolidze is simply too hittable, and I expect Duncan’s speed and variety to give him fits throughout the 15 minutes. Dolidze is tough but he may get knocked dead here too as Duncan is one of the heaviest hitters he has faced and eating and absorbing shots vs Vettori is different than absorbing vs Duncan.

However, I do think Dolidze has an outside chance to land takedowns considering that Petrosyan and Robocop had success grounding Duncan. If Dolidze can get it to the mat, his top control and submission game are not bad, and I still don’t fully trust CLD’s defensive wrestling. I still don’t know if Dolidze has the wrestling to completely ground Duncan all fight though. So my guess is CLD will still have his striking opportunities which will give him his chance to win.

—

On DraftKings, Duncan is priced up to 9.3k and although he carries upside, I like him less than others in this range.

There are just some very clear stand out finishers, and while Duncan could certainly put Dolidze’s lights out, the fight is -125 to go Over 2.5 rounds. Duncan is only +100 to win ITD.

Even if he does win ITD, I am less convinced that it will come in round one. Duncan isn’t the highest volume striker and won’t have much wrestling equity here, so I’d be worried a mid-round finish will only score him 100 points, or less.

With that said, I assume public ownership will be limited on Duncan here? I’m not convinced about that because Duncan does have decent box scores, but there are some strong targets both above and below him.

I think Duncan is a totally viable tournament target but he’s not a priority at the same time. If he projects to be low owned, I would label him a solid contrarian option as someone who could still score in the low 100s with an early KO.

I could also argue that there are a half dozen better options than Duncan between 9.7k-8.8k and he will likely fall into the low-end secondary category for me.

Dolidze is priced at 6.9k and is probably the best 6k option.

I will make the case for each of the 6k options, but Dolidze is obviously the most talented of the group. He’s won striking based decisions, and he can grapple. He at least has a path to victory here. 

Dolidze is only +575 to win ITD but we’ve seen Duncan taken down enough times that it wouldn’t be shocking for Dolidze to find his way on top, or compete in a singular round. I also just don’t love Dolidze’s game, and I understand why he’s a sizable underdog.

My guess is Dolidze will be owned in the mid teens and I think that’s about where I’d aim to land him as well. He’s a helpful salary saver with some upside, but he’s still a sizable enough underdog that I wouldn’t consider him a real secondary play.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Duncan by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

Kurtis Campbell vs. Danny Silva

Fight Odds: Campbell -240, Silva +205

Odds to end ITD: +130

DraftKings Salaries: Campbell 8.8k, Silva 7.4k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with a high pace fight, as Kurtis Campbell makes his UFC debut against fun featherweight prospect Danny Silva, in what has all the makings of a fun fight for as long as it lasts. Let’s dive in.

Kurtis Campbell made his Contender Series debut last September and instantly won over fans with his quirky personality and aggressive style. Putting it kindly, Campbell looks more like an accountant than a fighter. The glasses, smaller stature and pink panther nickname all make him look and feel a bit less menacing than he may really be. 

But when the Octagon door closes behind him, Campbell is all aggression and he showed that through a 80 second finish of Demba Seck. Campbell is now 8-0 with his career coming entirely in FCC, where he was the champion. He has a 75% finish rate split between five KO’s and one submission. With that resume, you would assume Campbell is an aggressive striking style, but he actually does his best work on the mat. 

He has a very hungry wrestling style, shooting for the legs early. He closes distance fast and works well to the back. On the mat, he prioritizes ground-and-pound over submissions and he has pretty good damage and control to win minutes and hunt the finish. He shot five takedowns on the Contender Series in 80 seconds, landing two of them. He does have decent BJJ as a brown belt, but he is largely looking to land ground-and-pound. 

That aggressive style and forward pressure has served him well as he is able to put people on the back foot and implement his style. 

I do have my concerns about his defensive striking, as he closes distance with his hands low and has very poor head movement, but his chin has held up to date. Offensively, he is often swinging recklessly to close the distance and enter the pocket. He does have solid elbows and knees in the clinch and that’s actually how he was able to get the finish on the Contender Series. 

He has won decisive decisions before, including going five rounds in 2024, so I do think his cardio is able to hold up, but he isn’t a fighter who has proven the ability to win minutes in the striking and is instead having his most success on the mat. 

Overall, Campbell is an aggressive wrestler with solid takedowns, quick entries and the ability to chain takedowns together. He is more of a ground-and-pound artist than a submission specialist, but is someone who does his best work on the mat and often has to get the fight there or he will struggle with less technical striking and poor striking defense. He is someone who looks to be a promising fighter but someone who I want to see shore up the striking and striking defense before trusting him too much at this level.

Danny Silva has made a good account for himself in the UFC since his Contender Series matchup in 2023. In that bout, he kept an incredible pace, landing 213 strikes and two takedowns en route to a unanimous decision win over Angel Pacheco. 

That’s Silva’s style, to bring a great pace and land plenty of volume, which has led him to his 3-1 record under the UFC banner. His sole loss came in his last match-up, which was against the surging Kevin Vallejos who just KO’d Emmett last week. In that bout, he showed good durability, eating the power shots of Vallejos and even taking him down early on. I would say his stock rose in that last bout, but there are still holes in his game. 

Silva is a fantastic volume boxer and has the ability to mix in takedowns when needed to as well. He’s averaging 6.67 strikes per minute and two takedowns per fight. That offense, output and minute winning is what helped him beat Almeida, Culibao and Pacheco, all bouts that were won via decision. 

I would even say defensively, he is very sound, as he’s defending strikes at 61% and has a 81% takedown defense. Add that to his great cardio and the fact he’s never been finished, and we have a true solid fighter with great minute winning and ability to win fights down the stretch. 

I just wish he was able to do more to separate himself. He does have five KO’s so there is power there, but he is typically fighting on close margins and fighters who are able to match the pace and win moments can keep things close. It was a split decision against Culibao and Almeida and although he has this solid pace and technical boxing, he’s fighting on close margins. 

He needed to wrestle against Culibao and even though he was able to land four takedowns and control him, he isn’t much of a grappling threat, hence why a judge was still able to score that fight for Culibao based on damage. 

Additionally, we haven’t seen him face a true grappler yet, so I wonder how he is able to fare in scrambles, although he was able to pop up to his feet quickly against Vallejos and defend takedowns from previous opponents. Either way, you have to commend Silva for his pace, output and well-roundedness. With his cardio and durability and ability to compete everywhere the fight takes place, he truly is a solid fighter who will always be able to keep it close. I just want to see him be able to separate himself more and prove himself against a competent grappler, before trusting him at a high clip against the top of the UFC’s featherweight division.

I like this fight. It’s one of a few that I have circled this weekend but I have to believe it’s going to be fought at a high pace. Silva pushes the envelope and is always looking to be on the front foot with boxing volume and minute winning. He has a big frame and will have a size and volume advantage in this spot against Campbell. 

For that reason, I do think there is a world where he can defend takedowns and out point Campbell on the feet. However, I can trust that the “Pink Panther” will shoot plenty of takedowns and we have yet to see Silva face someone with the relentlessness and process that Campbell has. 

So sure, Silva will be the better boxer and will win minutes on the feet against a very hittable Campbell. But I do think Campbell’s process and ground based attack will get Silva down and win minutes in that realm. From there, I think Campbell is able to get ahead on the scorecards, or land damage to get a ground-and-pound finish. I have my questions about each fighter, specifically how Silva fares in extending grappling exchanges and how Campbell fares in extended striking bouts, but I think we see more wrestling in this bout considering the style Campbell brings. 

The underdog is certainly live here but I’m going to lean with the wrestler in Campbell, in this wrestler vs striker matchup. Give me the Pink Panther in front of the home crowd. 

—

On DraftKings, I’m definitely interested in the Campbell side for his wrestling pace.

Campbell has looked adequate to me on the feet thus far as well. He is a decent kicker and even has a stoppage via leg kicks. He just doesn’t play around at distance too much, and I agree that Silva is a better boxer and is more likely to have success in the pocket, but Campbell can hang around at kicking distance.

Silva has shown to be pretty competent on the mat, but he did lose a decision on the regionals to Kawaihae via wrestling. He gave up a handful of takedowns early in that fight though he did limit control.

I think if Campbell wins this fight, he’s likely to land many takedowns, and earn lots of control. It sets up pretty well at 8.8k and I’m a sucker for his style.

The primary issue is that the fight is +130 to end inside the distance. Without a finish, Campbell may only score in the 90-100 point range and fail to assert himself as a clear stand out at the price tag. I do think he has one of the better floors in a win as he could land five or more takedowns and could still reach the 100 point mark in a decision.

So despite Campbell being only +210 to win ITD, I think he’s a solid secondary target this week. Keita and Page below him for sure need early knockouts, and I think Campbell has a better chance of being dominant than Jones does, for example. If those other names all win ITD then Campbell at 96 points is probably not going to contend for the optimal.

However, there’s certainly a path for him, and honestly these types of fighters have pretty unmatched ceilings. Maybe 10 takedowns is in play for him, and maybe he can land some absurd number of ground strikes to break the slate. I can’t necessarily project that but I do really like the pace here and I’ve seen Campbell wrestle pretty aggressively in all his regional fights.

So I like Campbell obviously. This is the type of play that I get suckered into. Perhaps he’s not as likely to be optimal as some early ITD options surrounding him in price, but I think he’s among the better options in the 8ks with a strong floor/ceiling expectation.

Silva is priced at 7.4k and has a path to victory if he can consistently scramble his way back up.

I honestly don’t think he has much of a shot to defend takedowns outright, and he probably will give up his back at some point. I’m not convinced Silva makes a fight out of this. I have been pretty high on Silva in the past though because his boxing pace is actually legit and so if he can scramble and push forward hard for 15 minutes, he could find himself edging out rounds with boxing, and maybe even have some damage upside.

Silva is only +425 to win ITD and is an OK low-end target. I just don’t expect him to wrestle much and I don’t think Campbell is going to eat a super high volume of strikes. There’s still a potential binary dynamic here and since we’re lacking on data with Campbell, I don’t want to completely rule Silva out.

I am not necessarily confident in Silva but I do like his boxing pace and at 7.4k, with leverage against Campbell, he’s viable as a low-end target. I’ll sprinkle him in when I need to save salary but I prefer some other options above and below him.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Campbell by Decision (Confidence=Medium)

UNDERCARD

Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola

Fight Odds: Jones -130, Sola +110

Odds to end ITD: +120

DraftKings Salaries: Jones 8.4k, Sola 7.8k

Weight Class: 155

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have an absolute banger at lightweight as Mason Jones takes on the undefeated French prospect Sola Axel.

Jones is 17-2 professionally and is currently in his second UFC stint. Jones is a relentless “volume-and-pressure” fighter who simply refuses to get tired. He averages a high rate of significant strikes and is constantly looking to mix in takedowns and heavy ground-and-pound. Jones’ pressure, output and cardio are his greatest weapons; he will walk through fire to land his own shots and is technically sound enough to exploit any openings on the mat.

Jones lands 5.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.47 in return. He is tough to deal with on the feet because of his pressure but he does lack in defense which will probably get him knocked out at some point. He can also get out slicked to striking based decisions too as he was against Ludovit Klein. 

Jones lands 4.17 takedowns per 15 minutes which is solid, and I consider him a solid and tenacious grappler. He also defends takedowns at a solid 81 percent and is tough to hold down. 

Axel enters this matchup with an 11-0-1 record and this will be his second UFC fight. He fought Rhys McKee in his UFC debut and finished him in the third round after being the more technical striker in the first two rounds, even though the fight was competitive.

Axel is primarily a kickboxer with a long frame. He is a southpaw and kind of uses a Conor McGregor karate stance. He does his best work when he can explode with flurries, mostly with his straight left, and mix in kicks too. He also has a decent jab. I don’t think his volume is great but he is perfectly fine on the feet, with mild power too.

While Axel is a technical striker, his gas tank remains largely untested at the UFC level, and I have also seen him hurt before. I also don’t think he has fought many good strikers so it will be interesting to watch him vs Jones who will definitely try to get in his face and pressure him.

Axel can also mix in takedowns but I don’t consider him a serious offensive grappling threat at this level. Furthermore, I have seen him taken down and controlled a bit too. 

His defensive grappling sequences are generally minimal in past fights but I have definitely seen some sequences I haven’t liked especially against Soslan Gagloev and Gautier Imavov. I feel like he will likely get exploited on the mat at some point.

As far as this matchup goes, I prefer Jones here because he is much more proven against high-level competition. 

Axel’s gas tank is a question mark. I think Axel’s gas tank has looked fine thus far, but I really wouldn’t be surprised if the pace of Jones broke him. I have seen Axel controlled in top position in some of his regional tape as well. Jones is the best pace grappler Axel has faced and I could see a world where Jones just owns him on the mat especially if Axel gets tired. This is mostly speculation though.

That said, I could see a world where Axel wins with his striking, either by KO or a technical decision, because he is arguably the more precise striker of the two and he is definitely better defensively. I still think Jones could potentially win on the feet as well though. Both guys could hurt the other as well.

I still feel like picking Jones is mathematically the correct choice. Axel doesn’t really have grappling upside here where Jones very well may have a large advantage there or a gas tank advantage as well. I am going to go with Jones because he has more paths to victory.

—

On DraftKings, this should be a viable matchup given the high pace that Jones always brings.

I’ve been a huge Jones fan for years and don’t plan on abandoning that fandom unless he changes his style. He’s coming off a somewhat typical Jones fight too – he was cracked early by Bolaji Oki, fought well through it and drowned him in the second round.

His high paced style has led to big wins on DraftKings as well, including 121, 117, and 126. I don’t know that we can continue to expect scores that high, but I do think he’ll carry a generally strong floor/ceilling projection.

In this matchup, I don’t know that Jones is safe. I’m not certain he’ll win. The fight is lined very competitively. Still, at 8.4k, if Jones wins, he’s very likely to exceed value.

Jones could easily land 80 strikes and four takedowns in a win, and with control and non-sig strikes included, he could push for another 100 points. Sola looked good in his debut but it was a step down in competition and his wrestling has been mediocre on the regionals. Jones also has some finishing equity at +245 ITD.

I don’t want to get carried away by this spot because he’s only a slight favorite, but I like Jones a decent amount for his historical pacing, wrestling equity, and price tag.

Sola is priced at 7.8k and could be a popular underdog.

He’s coming off an 85 point TKO win and is one of the more competitively lined underdogs on the slate. Considering Jones fights at a high pace, Sola will need to produce offense to win.

I do think he could win via a slower paced, technical kickboxing type of decision since that’s where his advantages may lie. But with that will come some potential for damage, and Jones can be hurt.

Sola is +350 to win ITD which isn’t particularly strong and obviously Jones is super tough to finish. But a KD is viable.

I think Sola is a fine secondary target. I don’t rate him as some phenomenal play and it’s not the easiest matchup on paper. But if I aim to be heavy on Jones, I’d also like a fair amount of Sola and just get in on the fight as a whole at that point.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Jones by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita

Fight Odds: Keita -232, Wood +197

Odds to end ITD: -125

DraftKings Salaries: Keita 8.7k, Wood 7.5k

Weight Class: 145

Here we go again with Nathaniel Wood who takes on the tough newcomer Losene Keita.

We were supposed to get the debut from Keita last September against Patricio Pitbull, but Keita missed weight by three pounds and the fight was called off.

Keita is the two-weight OKTAGON champion who is 16-1 professionally at age 27, and he’s earned 10 wins by knockout and six by decision.

Keita is primarily a boxer, and an explosive knockout artist. He likes to walk his opponents down and unload on them with vicious punches.

With that style, he’s had lots of success. Opponents are afraid of his power and rightfully so, and as they back up, they do not offer much for Keita in return.

I honestly hoped to be more impressed with Keita when watching his tape because although he’s an explosive power puncher, his game feels extremely limited to my eye.

Keita doesn’t throw a whole lot of volume, so he’s going to fall into the “moments” category of fighter which I don’t love, and he’ll have tendencies to fight in close rounds where he’s not landing a huge shot.

Furthermore, Keita has some classic power striker issues in that he slows down in fights, and he also struggles to wrestle defensively. Neither issue is horrendous, but Keita has lost round 3s before, and he’s also been taken down and outgrappled on multiple occasions.

I’ve also seen Keita rocked, and his only pro loss came by KO in round one though it was a foot injury. So really, Keita probably needs early damage to sustain wins at the UFC level.

I do believe he’s capable of it. Standing orthodox, his boxing is good, and he will wing power shots when he feels his opponents are vulnerable. He can throw the occasional flying knee and there’s some other explosive movements in his arsenal.

But he’s not a volume striker, and he doesn’t kick much. He could be the type to land 50 or less significant strikes in a fight. I just don’t love that style.

HIs defensive wrestling isn’t horrible, and his pure athleticism will allow him to scramble up from the bottom. But he also can be taken down, controlled, and he can give up his back. He should lose to strong wrestlers, though those come few and far between.

As noted, I also worry a bit more about him as the fight progresses.

He’ll get another chance to make the featherweight limit here against Nathaniel Wood, who is a super experienced veteran of this division and someone I’ve long admired for his round to round consistency.

Wood is a really solid kickboxer who thrives in high-paced affairs, which he usually enforces on his opponents. He’s always been a bit hittable, and has taken lots of damage both on the regional scene and in the UFC, but he fights through it very well.

Assuming you can’t knock him out, Wood is going to be there for 15 minutes throwing strikes at a high rate, and the fight is very likely going to be competitive because of it. Wood lands 5.74 sig strikes per 15 minutes while absorbing 4.32 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate, which is solid.

He’s coming off a close win over Jose Delgado which many people thought he lost. Delgado dropped him with a spinning attack early and clearly won the first round. He did not clearly win the second or third round, however, which is the problem. Even if you believe Delgado was deserving of the win, Wood did outland him numerically in both rounds and took him down in both rounds.

The last time Wood actually lost was when he gave up four takedowns to Muhammad Naimov, who also committed a handful of fouls in that matchup, and proved a more physical presence for Wood. Keita will be the more physical presence here for sure but doesn’t bring that same sort of wrestling attack.

Prior to that, Wood lost a competitive decision to Casey Kenney while landing 136 sig strikes, Kenney was able to land 123 of his own and a couple of takedowns. John Dodson knocked Wood out in 2020 for his only other UFC loss.

Essentially, I just think the betting line is a bit crazy here. Wood is a far better round winner than Keita, far more experienced and he fights at a much higher pace.

I do think Keita’s power and physicality will prove threatening for Wood, and Keita could win by knockout early. Wood has been dropped in a couple of recent fights, by both Delgado and Fili. He still won both fights, and has only suffered one TKO loss in the UFC.

If Keita doesn’t win by KO in round one, which I think is not an easy outcome to project, it’s difficult to assume Keita dominates rounds two and three here. Especially at home in London for Wood who the crowd should get behind.

I can certainly see a scenario where Keita does some damage early and takes the first round, and wins one of the latter rounds as well. He has mild knockout equity in general. More likely, Wood can survive some early exchanges and make all rounds competitive, where he’d have a reasonable shot to win by decision.

He shouldn’t dominate on the mat but Wood also lands 1.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and mixing in the occasional takedown could help seal a round.

Wood is classically undervalued and we’ve bet on him numerous times. I don’t think he’s a lock to win by any stretch but I trust in what he will bring to the Octagon, and I don’t even know if Keita will make the weight, let alone be able to fight up pace for a hard 15 minutes.

I’ll pick Wood to win another competitive decision based on principle but I expect Keita to produce some dangerous early moments.

—

On DraftKings, Keita is priced up to 8.7k and will be knockout or bust.

I really can’t get behind this spot with any excitement. He might hurt Wood but Wood is tough to finish, and Keita doesn’t throw a ton of volume. It’s a thin window to hit his ceiling condition and historically not a spot I’d want to pay up for.

Keita still rates out OK at +115 to win ITD and Wood has been knocked down recently. If I knew Keita was going to come in low owned, I would say he’s a reasonable contrarian target for finishing equity. If he’s going to be at all popular, I would be much less excited but I can still understand using him as a secondary option given the finishing equity on paper.

You can do what you want here but it’s a very boom or bust spot, and I’ll likely only find myself rostering him when I’m stuck in this mid 8k range and can’t pay up much further.

Wood is priced at 7.5k and is a fine salary saver.

I don’t think he’s a phenomenal play because Keita might limit his volume, and obviously may win the fight given he’s north of -200 on the moneyline. Wood doesn’t usually produce a huge ceiling, though he’s averaging 92 DK points in wins.

Wood can very realistically land 80 sig strikes and 1-2 takedowns in a competitive decision win. He can score 80 DK points or so. He probably needs a KD or a finish to reach 90 points or more, and he’s only +525 to win ITD.

I’d label Wood as a fine secondary option overall. He’s consistent with his pacing and will give himself a shot to win a decision. I wouldn’t bet on a massive ceiling and there’s others in this range who have merit. I’m fine to come in near the field percentage and use him as a salary saver, but I wouldn’t say he’s a true priority.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Wood by Decision (Confidence=Low)

Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco

Fight Odds: Pinto -900, Franco +600

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Pinto 9.7k, Franco 6.5k

Weight Class: HW

The UFC welcomes newcomer Felipe Franco who will take on Mario Pinto this weekend.

Franco is not necessarily a top prospect, and there’s a reason he is a +600 underdog entering this bout.

Franco is 10-1 professionally at age 25, and he’s earned six wins by knockout and four by submission. He fought on DWCS and lost in 2025, but has since earned two more regional wins to get the call up.

The problem is, the majority of his wins have come against really poor competition. In fact, prior to his DWCS bout, only one of his eight opponents had ever earned a win. Franco was running them over to some degree, but it’s difficult to analyze his real skill set when his level of competition is so mediocre.

On DWCS, Franco showed some promise early. He landed a few takedowns and earned some control. Even his DWCS opponent was very mediocre, and 3-0 professionally at the time.

Franco looked quite sloppy as the fight progressed, and he got reversed and mounted pretty easily. The fight hit the third round and both guys were gassed out. Franco kind of quit from exhaustion late, allowed his opponent to take his back and tapped out to a not real submission with only 12 seconds remaining.

Apparently Franco is a BJJ black belt and a Judo brown belt, but his submission skills really did not shine in that matchup. As is the case with a lot of fighters, and especially Brazilians, you can earn a black belt in the Gi which really means nothing in relation to your No-Gi or MMA grappling skill set.

I do think Franco being tired was a major contributor to his ugly grappling showcase, but that’s another issue that I doubt will be fixed. That fight was also at 205 while this matchup is at HW, for what it’s worth.

Generally, I’d say Franco can throw some punches, but I haven’t seen any sustained volume from him. I’ve seen him dropped. He has shown some wrestling skill and ability to submit super weak opponents from the top, but clearly he will struggle when he faces adversity. 

His takedown ability is OK and I like that he was willing to attempt 15 takedowns, but clearly the majority of his success will come early in fights, or probably not at all.

Franco will be taking on Mario Pinto who is coming off an impressive TKO finish over Jhonata Diniz in October.

Pinto had a clear advantage on the mat, and although I was pretty skeptical he would use it, Pinto went right to his wrestling, earned control and eventually finished the fight in the second round.

In his UFC debut, Pinto fought Austen Lane and actually lost the first round where he got dropped and badly hurt. He then knocked Lane out cold within the first minute of round two.

Pinto is now 11-0 professionally and he’s earned seven wins by knockout and three by decision. He is from Portugal but fights out of London, England.

Pinto didn’t fight a lot of great opponents on the regional scene, but did fight in many extended affairs. He’s gone the distance three times including one five-round fight, and his cardio looks like one of his stronger attributes.

Pinto is primarily a striker. He fights at a cautious pace and doesn’t throw a ton of volume. He’s happy to stand back, throw a jab, some kicks, and win rounds.

He does carry power as this is the HW division, but Pinto isn’t a stand out in that regard. He’s not throwing heavy hammers and he’s not necessarily gunning for a KO. He did secure a quick KO on the Contender Series, but it came from a check hook and he wasn’t really loading up on the strike.

In that sense, I have mixed feelings about Pinto. I like his base set of skills for winning rounds. He seems reasonably technical, and defensively sound. I do wish he had a bit more power and physicality because I’m not sure he easily puts opponents away in the UFC, nor am I sure he will run away with rounds without the damage aspect.

There wasn’t a ton of grappling tape on Pinto entering the UFC but he did take down and submit some combat sambo champion in the beginning of his pro career.

A fair few opponents have tried to take Pinto down though, with little success. When he’s been taken down, he pops right back up. I’m pretty hopeful for his defense in that regard and I don’t think he’ll be easy to control.

His first level takedown defense seems fine. I’d guess he can be taken down and that it might be a weak point overall, but I’m not super worried about it as a major liability. Only a few fighters at HW can wrestle at all.

Pinto is clearly the better prospect here, is more well-rounded and is more tested. I still have some concerns with his style, and you don’t have to look much further than his debut where he lost the first round to Austen Lane and was nearly knocked out.

In terms of this matchup, Pinto is probably better everywhere and has many more paths to win. I think he’s the better technical striker and certainly a better round-winning striker. He has the better cardio for sure on paper. 

I don’t know if he’s clearly a better grappler but even if Franco takes him down, I would bet on Pinto standing back up to his feet. If Pinto lands takedowns, he could potentially advance and find a finish.

Especially from a cardio dynamic, it’s hard to have much faith in Franco past the first round. My guess is he needs a quick knockout, or a submission. He could land a takedown, that seems like the most reasonable path. And maybe he’s improved in the past year. His last two regional wins were still first round finishes and against weak competition.

My assumption is Franco has a mild shot to land a takedown early, and perhaps he can jump on a finish. If not, Pinto probably beats him up and finds a mid-round finish, or as soon as Franco gets tired, Pinto should take over.

It’s a tough matchup to quantify on the betting side but Pinto being favored heavily feels fair, all things considered.

—

On DraftKings, Pinto is the most expensive fighter on the board at 9.7k.

This is always going to be a difficult spot because historically, fighters priced this high on 14 fight slates don’t end up optimal. In fact, it’s never happened (over the last 16 tracked 14-fight slates).

With that said, what matters in part is what Pinto scores. If he fights like Kevin Vallejos and wins by RD 1 KO with two knockdowns, he’s going to give himself a good shot at the optimal. If he can duplicate what we saw against Diniz, which was 3 takedowns, 1 reversal, 8 minutes of control and 87 strikes landed in a round two finish, he can be optimal.

Pinto also scored 86 points in a second round finish in his UFC debut, and obviously a standard early finish scores closer to 110 than it does 120.

What’s even more difficult on this slate is that the two fighters priced below him are -475 and -600 to win ITD, which are as good or better marks than Pinto at -475 ITD.

Of Pinto’s last seven wins, only one has come in round one, which doesn’t make extremely excited to force him in at 9.7k. And if I can’t pay up, oh well, I’ll just roster one of the elite ITD guys below him.

Essentially, Pinto is not a must, just as any fighter at 9.7k on a 14 fight slate would not be a must.

Pinto does seem likely to get a finish, and it still could come early. He’ll still project strongly at a base level and have one of the higher win projections on the slate. If you can afford him, he’s a solid option. 

My guess is that the public will prefer paying down slightly and saving that $200 which could be useful elsewhere, and my other guess is that Evloev + one of the top three will be the typical path that most will look toward.

There’s no right or wrong answer here. Pinto is a very strong target who projects to score 100 points or more in a win, but his heavy price tag arguably pushes him off the priority list from a roster construction standpoint.

Franco is priced at 6.5k and is only a tournament dart throw.

Clearly, if Franco wins, he’s going to score well. And for what it’s worth, he’s currently around 14 percent implied to win, and my guess is he ends up closer to 5 percent owned publicly. Taking a random shot on a fighter like this with 100 point upside isn’t the worst call.

However, as a +600 underdog, those chances need to be few and far between. His skill set doesn’t look particularly strong, the matchup feels tough, and his odds to win suck. Most will just cross him out of the player pool and that’s totally fine.

If you’re playing 50-150 lineups, taking a couple darts is on the table but I can’t say I’m particularly excited to do so.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pinto by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=High)

Mantas Kondratavicius vs. Antonio Trocoli

Fight Odds: Kondratavicius -750, Trocoli +550

Odds to end ITD: -1000

DraftKings Salaries: Kondratavicius 9.6k, Trocoli 6.6k

Weight Class: 185

*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark

The fight night continues with a clash of middleweights, as Antonio Trocoli tries to find his footing inside the UFC against newcomer Mantas Kondratavicius. Let’s dive in.

Mantas Kondratavicius, aside from being a tough name to write up, is a fighter I had my eye on from last season of Contender Series. He got a 66 second KO over Djani Barbir last September as an underdog, and showed decent power and offensive ability. 

He is listed as a 6’2 middleweight with a solid frame but I think he might even be a bit bigger than that. His Contender Series bout was a quick one, but he showed solid aggression and power from range. He immediately shot a takedown in that matchup, which is new for him, but was quickly reversed and had to work his way to his feet. From range, he landed a solid front kick, pushed forward and landed a powerful overhand right, winning the fight via KO. 

That style on the feet is more what we expect from Montas, as he is now 8-1, but does have a kickboxing background behind him. Mantas fought a pretty low level of competition regionally, but disposed of them accordingly with a 100% finish rate split between six KO’s and two subs. He shows a ton of urgency and pressure in his fights and all of his wins have come in the first two rounds. 

He uses that long kickboxing frame to spam kicks, push forward and throw heavy hands, and he does have solid power to back it up. With that style he can also be a bit reckless and get hit, but his chin seems to hold up, albeit to lower level competition. 

I really do like his clinch striking as well, as he has good knees and elbows on the break, but in there he can be taken down. He was submitted in his only loss via rear naked choke and although it was against a solid fighter who is still undefeated and now a champ over at ARES, we did see him give up his back to get up on the Contender Series as well, which is something to keep an eye on. 

Overall, Mantas is a truly powerful offensive kickboxer. He hits extremely hard, has a style of reckless aggression that allows him to land damage on opponents early and he has a decent enough of a chin to take what’s coming back his way. I do have my questions about his cardio and minute winning down the stretch, as well as his defensive grappling, but he does rate out as an early offensive boom or bust striker that will do whatever it takes to take your head off early, and he has the power and kickboxing to land and hurt people. 

With that fun style, he is someone who I will cheer for, although there will most likely come a time where those questions are answered and I’m not sure how well he will respond with that lack of defense and proven cardio. 

Antonio Trocoli has had a rough run so far in the UFC. He made his debut on the Contender Series and won via first round neck crank. However that was short lived as the bout was turned to a no-contest after Trocoli popped for PEDs. He served his suspension and was still signed to the UFC, where he has lost three straight, all coming by finish. 

Losing to Mansur Abdul Malik and Shara Magomedov is forgivable, but it’s the way in which he’s losing that’s tougher to swallow. He’s looking slow, and doesn’t seem to have much desire to deliver output. He’s also been submitted via standing guillotine in his last two fights. 

The best thing to happen to Trocoli was Mackenzie Dern and now that that’s over, this man doesn’t have much going for him. Sure he is live for an early submission against lower level fighters, but he doesn’t have much desire to win, and is seemingly more focused on his poker career. I’m not sure how invested he is in his training. 

At his core, I would say Trocoli is a primary grappler. He does have a 67% finish rate and five wins by submission. He does have decent control on the mat should he get it there, but he has not been the best wrestler recently. He is landing 0.79 TDs per 15 minutes at a 10% accuracy and his only TD came prior to his suspension. 

Since then, he is 0/9 on takedowns and has largely been stuck in a defensive role on his back foot. In the striking, I guess he does have decent power but he has not attempted many strikes recently, averaging 1.37 strikes landed per minute. 

He is able to eat a shot to force the clinch and I don’t think his chin is horrible, but he is defending strikes at 24% and people are able to tee off on him as he doesn’t have the urgency to put out offense. 

There aren’t many nice things to say about Trocoli at this point in his career. I know he has the grappling in his back pocket and he is pretty potent on the mat. But he isn’t showing any urgency, isn’t throwing strikes to close the distance and often is looking for the easy way out, having now been finished four times. 

If Trocoli showed any desire to win, maybe I would back his grappling path but without that motivation or any offense really, he is dependent on an early submission win or else he’s usually getting beaten pretty bad, looking for the easy way out and showing up for a check.

At the end of the day, we have a large favorite in Mantas and probably for good reason. Trocoli does not look like he wants to be in there, is not offering much resistance and now he gets one of the most aggressive, powerful and hungry up and comers from last season of Contender Series. 

Mantas goes forward with insane power and aggression and is hurting people early. Against Trocoli’s 24% striking defense and lack of desire to fight, it does seem like an easy path for Mantas to have success here and get an early finish. 

The only thing I will say is that Trocoli is pretty dangerous on the mat and Mantas is relatively green with his grappling. He was submitted in his only pro loss and can give up the back. I would argue that’s the only path for Trocoli though. If he doesn’t get the back early, Mantas will blitz him with crazy power and actually show determination to win in the Octagon. So give me Mantas to push forward, swing for the fences and hit Trocoli hard enough to make him quit.

—

On DraftKings, Mantas is one of the big trio at the top and is priced at 9.6k.

This is a tough one because I have to say up front, his loss on the regionals was greatly concerning. He was immediately mounted on the mat, and really could not get back up to his feet. He looks like a pretty extreme liability there defensively, though he could be improving, and we don’t always run into strong wrestlers in the middleweight division.

With that said, Mantas is aggressive, and dangerous with his hands at range and in the clinch. He fights with a style that can break opponents, and Trocoli seems like the type to break.

However, Trocoli survived two full rounds with Shara Magomedov and although losing via standing guillotine twice in a row as a submission artist looks bad, I’m not sure that’s Mantas’ real path.

Additionally, despite the early losses, Trocoli actually hasn’t given up 100 points yet. His last three opponents in wins have scored 97, 98 and 93.5.

I really don’t know what to think. I can absolutely picture Mantas just forcing dirty clinch exchanges, hurting Trocoli and Trocoli deciding to bow out. I will pick a first round KO. Historically, it’s not as if Trocoli is getting KOd quickly and he may even have a real path to victory on the mat.

There’s just a bit of variance here and a bit of risk given the lack of data on Mantas. I still think he’s relatively safe to win as he will actually try to fight hard and do damage, but I wouldn’t be shocked if weird things happened.

If forced to choose, I suppose I feel better about Iwo priced below him. Pinto is safer I think but may not be as likely to win in round one. Mantas still rates out incredibly well with a -475 ITD line. He is definitely not a stand out within this top three, but he is not a significantly worse option either.

You can argue that if Iwo is much more popular, Mantas is the better play. I think I’d rather play Iwo if forced to choose but Mantas’ best bet to win is still in round one and so he’ll rate out very similarly on paper.

I’ll be looking for a fade at some point on Mantas but I think this is a decent set up spot for him to succeed, and he’ll be a very strong tournament target worth considering if you have the ability to pay up.

Trocoli is priced at 6.6k and is not completely out of play.

I think I can make a better case for Franco and Lane to be honest, but there’s merit to all three for pure upside and leverage. Mantas has some issues on the mat and Trocoli could have a sneaky path to an early submission. I really don’t trust he’ll pull it out but he’s 15 percent to win or so and won’t be that highly owned.

If you have a large portfolio, I think Trocoli is a fine dart throw, but I really don’t expect him to win and I think crossing him out is totally reasonable.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Kondratavicius by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)

Louie Sutherland vs. Brando Pericic

Fight Odds: Pericic -255, Sutherland +215

Odds to end ITD: -600

DraftKings Salaries: Pericic 9k, Sutherland 7.2k

Weight Class: HW

We should be in for a few minutes of entertainment here as Louie Sutherland takes on Brando Pericic in the heavyweight division.

Pericic is coming off a first round demolition over Elisha Ellison, which we fortunately saw coming. Pericic just marched forward, threw some heavy leg kicks, got on top of Ellison and pounded him out in less than two minutes.

That now brings his record to 5-1 professionally with four wins coming by knockout and all five wins coming in the first round.

From a profiling sense, I think Pericic likely needs early success, and because of that, there’s definitely elements of low-level HW messiness.

The one loss Pericic had came in 2024 where he was badly gassed out at the end of the first round, and finished early in the second round.

I still wanted to back him in his debut because I thought that Pericic actually looked like a competent and effective offensive fighter. He can brawl a bit. He has real power in his hands, and he’s a decent clinch fighter as well. He can kick a little bit too.

On top, I’ve seen him throw heavy ground-and-pound. His wrestling looks pretty mediocre but he seems to have some idea of what to do on the mat.

The loss he took also came against a 13-3 opponent who was the champion of HEX, and Pericic did hurt him badly early in the fight. The opponent took him down a couple of times and I actually liked how Pericic got back to his feet.

I do think strong wrestlers can take advantage of Pericic, but in terms of one takedown being the end of the fight, I don’t think Pericic is a major liability in that sense.

I do want to caution that Ellison was bad, and not a UFC level opponent. I thought that was the case coming in and it was one major reason why I wanted to back Pericic. While I still believe he’s an effective and dangerous offensive fighter, there are certainly red flags here in the profile and it’s fair to believe he’s dependent on early damage to succeed.

Pericic will be taking on Louie Sutherland who also had a quick UFC debut against Valter Walker, which unfortunately ended with him tapping out to a heel hook like most of Walker’s opponents.

The fight only lasted a minute and 24 seconds, and nothing really happened. Sutherland threw a couple of nice leg kicks, he got taken down, and then pretty shortly thereafter was tapping to the heel hook.

It brings Sutherland’s record to 10-4 professionally, and he’s earned eight wins by knockout and two by decision.

Sutherland is short and stocky, and kind of a slow fighter who isn’t particularly good at any one thing. He’ll give up a couple of inches in height and reach to Periric.

While Sutherland does have a bunch of knockouts on his record, I don’t consider him a very skilled striker. He will rush in with occasional blitzes and throw big punches, and sometimes he lands them. He hasn’t beaten very good or trustworthy competition though.

Sutherland is also capable of wrestling and clinching, where he can slow down the fight. He can get on top of some opponents and he has a basic understanding of jiu-jitsu but I don’t consider him special there, and obviously he just quick tapped to Walker which is a bad sign.

Sutherland at least has been tested a little bit. He has never been knocked out, and his only pro loss inside the distance came to Walker. He’s also gone the distance and won multiple times, granted against weak competition, but I don’t think his cardio is awful.

The reality is, he’s not going to be a strong round winner in any capacity. He still can be hit. He can be taken down and can be controlled. He may honestly thrive as someone who can survive and extend fights, though I don’t think he’s an incredible pace fighter and I’m hesitant to put too much stock into his durability.

At the very least, I think it’s a path in this matchup though, as Pericic has only seen the second round one time and looked dead. Pericic is by far the more effective offensive fighter though. He’s bigger, and throws way harder, and will hunt for the kill.

Sutherland might be durable, but I’m not sold on it. I think Pericic probably lands some big shots early and does some damage regardless, as he’s just faster and powerful and I don’t know what Sutherland can do to stop it. I could also see Pericic taking Sutherland down and doing some damage.

However, if Sutherland survives, I’m really not confident in Pericic past the first round. He could possibly be fine, and be able to fight through fatigue better like we saw with Petrino in his last matchup, but he also might not be fine. Sutherland might be able to wear him down in the clinch, take him down and finish him.

I think we absolutely have to keep that outcome in mind. I’m especially nervous because Ellison is AWFUL and I don’t want to overrate Pericic’s full skill set because he beat up some random bum. Sutherland has at least shown cardio and toughness on the regional scene, despite not having very strong offensive skills.

I think I have to pick Pericic to win here by early KO because that’s really what his goal will be, and I think his speed and power will be enough to inflict damage. I’m not 100 percent sure he can KO Sutherland though and the longer the fight extends, the more live Sutherland will be.

—

On DraftKings, Pericic is going to rate out well at 9k for early finishing equity.

He’s coming off a huge result though it was only a 102 point DK score. It could have been more had the fight played out slightly differently but he wasn’t able to get a knockdown or a takedown.

Realistically, when Pericic wins, it’s going to come from an early finish and he’ll score between 100 to 110 points, or even more. At 9k, he’s going to rate out well for upside. He is -210 to win ITD which is very strong considering his -270 line to win the fight.

Essentially, Pericic is someone you need to have exposure to in tournaments. He is arguably the same type of play as the elite trio at the top of the board, but he’s $500-$700 cheaper, and arguably even more dependent on an early finish.

I do think there are more safety concerns here compared to the top of the board, and that’s why he’s not as heavy of a favorite. If the fight extends, he’s likely going to bust.

The fight as a whole is -600 to end inside the distance, and from my perspective, it makes sense to attack this fight. Sure, Pericic could lose, but I’d rather be playing some Sutherland in that case than be avoiding Pericic in fear of the loss.

Pericic is very boom or bust and arguably risky given his profile but from a win / price perspective, you could argue he’s a priority in this range.

Sutherland is worth rostering at 7.2k and I’d be fine coming in overweight.

My guess is he loses, and there are ways for him to underperform even in a win, because he’s not an elite offensive fighter.

However, you’re getting real leverage on him against Periric and most likely, you’re getting a win ITD at a cheap price tag. It’s one way to differentiate yourself a little bit without sacrificing upside.

This could also turn out to be an obvious play in hindsight if we find out Sutherland is indeed durable, and Pericic is indeed a gasser. I’m not betting on it per se but the red flags are clear. In a matchup so likely to end ITD on paper, this is an easy secondary option in my mind.

My gut is to have moderate exposure to this matchup and prioritize it to some degree on both ends. 

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Pericic by TKO, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Shem Rock vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

Fight Odds: Al-Selwady -125, Rock +105

Odds to end ITD: +100

DraftKings Salaries: Al-Selwady 8.3k, Rock 7.9k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a random fight here between the “Pride of Palestine” Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and the dangerous submission specialist Shem Rock.

Al-Selwady is an American fighter who represents Palestine. He is 30 years old and 15-4 professionally. He has a lot of good pre-UFC experience in solid regional promotions like LFA, Brave, and Fury.

Al-Selwady is honestly a decent fighter and is well-rounded. He comes from a Muay Thai background and then got into MMA.

As a striker, I consider Al-Sewady a sound technical striker. He can volume strike well. He does a really good job fighting going backwards and landing point scoring shots. He uses good lateral movement and footwork as well. He can mix in some really good straight punches, low kicks, and body kicks. I also consider his cardio very strong and he can fight 15 minutes with no issue. 

Al-Selwady can also grapple a bit. He has some decent takedowns but I don’t think he can dominate at the lightweight division with it. He also can wrestle defensively somewhat well also. 

My main concern with Al-Selwady is his durability. His knockout loss to Loik was his fourth professional loss by knockout. That is a lot of KO losses for someone who has generally fought regional competition. 

More importantly though for his matchup, Al-Selwady has never been submitted and he has grappling matchups where he generally has not been submitted either which may help him here against Shem Rock.

Rock is 12-2-1 professionally and makes his way to the UFC as a RNC submission specialist. He lost his UFC debut to Nurullo Aliev because he couldn’t land takedowns and was forced to strike, and lost the significant strike battle 51-44. Aliev isn’t even that good of a striker and Rock didn’t have much for him.

On the feet, Rock just isn’t good or effective. He likes to use kicks and can muster up a power shot here and there. He is also tough. However, he just isn’t an athlete, fast, or skilled and will be a liability on the feet in the UFC.

Rock is a dangerous submission specialist, specifically known for his back-takes and RNC’s. He is tricky and can find his opening, He is also tough enough and tenacious enough to get to the back. I definitely think he can submit low tier UFC guys.

The issue is Rock’s actual wrestling and takedowns are not great. So he can’t always get the fight to his wheelhouse. So a lot of fights will probably look like the Aliev fight where he can’t get takedowns enough, is forced to strike, and loses.

As far as this matchup goes, I’m siding with Al-Selwady because he is the better, higher-volume technical striker and a more polished pure wrestler. If he can avoid the big shot, I expect him to out-point Rock over three rounds.

However, I do think Rock is dangerous enough to hurt him on the feet or find a back-take in a scramble for an RNC finish, especially given Al-Selwady’s past durability issues. However, Rock isn’t as much of a power threat as Al-Selwady’s past opponents so Al-Selwady may be in less danger here standing than usual. 

I think the value in the matchup will depend on how well Al-Selwady defends the takedowns and backtake. If Al-Selwady can completely shut that down he could be a big favorite here. I don’t have the utmost confidence in Selwady doing that but I do think he is a decent wrestler and I am siding with him sprawling and brawling to a win.

—

On DraftKings, I will try to make a case for both sides.

The primary case for Al-Selwady will be takedowns. I think he’s a competent wrestler and he just took Radzhabov down three times on seven attempts. I think he can take Rock down and he’s very clearly the superior round winner here.

However, I’m not sure he has much finishing equity. Al-Selwady is only +300 to win ITD which seems fair.

I’m also not sure Al-Selwady will prioritize a wrestling attack because it could give Rock a chance to reverse position and hunt a submission. If we don’t get an aggressive wrestling game from Al-Selwady, he’s probably not worth it.

I honestly think Rock sucks and I think Al-Selwady is the fair pick (despite having durability issues), but I also think the most clear case for Al-Selwady is a decision. In a decision, he could exceed value with some takedowns but I’m much less confident in him reaching a ceiling.

For that reason, I’m probably off Al-Selwady this week. I see him lined at +170 to win  by Decision which seems like a decent play but I’m a bit concerned Rock’s grappling skill will limit Al-Selwady’s upside and therefore push him off the optimal in a win.

Rock is priced at 7.9k and I think he will be the more popular target.

I seriously think he sucks. Some of those striking exchanges in his last matchup were awful, and I really don’t think he’s UFC level. He’s going to be a lot bigger than Al-Selwady but I don’t think it matters.

The only thing that does matter is that Rock could produce a random moment and win ITD. I was worried about Al-Selwady’s durability coming into the UFC and now I’m even more concerned. Even though Rock can’t strike, I wouldn’t rule out a random knockout.

And of course, Rock does have some submission grappling upside if he randomly teleports his way to the back.

Rock is +225 to win ITD which is a much better ITD line than Al-Selwady’s, and he’s probably the better fantasy target because of it. Just given general variance, I think it’s fine to use him as a secondary target.

If I had to force a lean, it would still be underweight because Rock doesn’t really have the style to consistently land takedowns and otherwise you’re just betting on random durability issues.

There’s still enough finishing equity here to mix him in around the field percentage in large field tournaments.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Al-Selwady by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)

Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira

Fight Odds: Dyer -500, Oliveira +385

Odds to end ITD: +190

DraftKings Salaries: Dyer 9.4k, Oliveira 6.8k

Weight Class: 145

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a low level strawweight matchup here between the Brazilian Ravena Oliveira and British prospect Shanelle Dyer.

Oliveira is 7-3-1 professionally and 29 years old. Before her UFC debut, there wasn’t a ton of tape on her and she mostly fought random bums on the Brazilian regional scene. She only has two wins over opponents who have a single win on their record lol. She also only has one win over someone with a winning record.

Oliveira seems to just be a girl who will strike a bit in the pocket and throw some combinations and then clinch up if she gets uncomfortable. Against Lisboa, they both would clinch and whoever happened to fall over would just lose the round on their back. Oliveira then lost badly to Stephanie Luciano where we played Luciano. Luciano outlanded her 60-24 in significant strikes, took Oliveira down three times and submitted her. Oliveira looked horrible.

Oliveira just isn’t very good and she will look to strike a little bit and clinch a little bit, and is probably limited to beating very bad fighters in the UFC. I don’t think her striking looks super polished although she can throw some okay combinations. Her striking defense isn’t good either. Her offensive wrestling doesn’t even look good either and she is prone to getting taken down and held down herself.

I honestly don’t even know what Oliveira’s paths to victories are in the UFC. She doesn’t have an offensive skillset lol. She just has to hope her opponent is also bad.

Shanelle Dyer is from England with a 6-1 professional record. Her one loss came on the Contender Series to Carol Foro who is a solid opponent. Foro landed big power shots early and nearly knocked Dyer out. Dyer did compose herself though and had success later in the fight, and lasted all three rounds in a striking war. Dyer landed 115 significant strikes but absorbed 117 and 3 knockdowns in return. Dyer showed she can keep up a high volume striking pace though.

I don’t think Dyer is great, but she is a decent high volume striker with a background in Muay Thai. She has cardio, can mix in kicks and has some okay hand speed. Again, I don’t think she is a great striker, but she can beat low UFC level WMMA fighters on the feet which is exactly what Oliveira is.

Dyer doesn’t wrestle much and I don’t think her takedowns look strong when she tries. I haven’t seen a ton of her defensive grappling. I have seen some pathetic td attempts on her that she stuffed, but she hasn’t been tested there in recent fights and she does have some amateur losses on the mat. So I don’t fully trust here there.

As far as this matchup goes, I am picking Dyer because she is clearly the better striker. I expect her to be at a volume and technical edge against Oliveira and that should be enough for her to win.

Although I don’t trust Dyer on the mat and honestly she will probably get beat there eventually, I simply don’t trust Oliveira’s wrestling enough to consistently get Dyer down or keep her there. Unless Oliveira can turn this into a very ugly clinch fight, Dyer should have a clear path to victory on the feet.

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On DraftKings, Dyer is only going to be a contrarian target at 9.4k.

She’s a heavy favorite at -500 to win and Oliveira isn’t particularly skillful, but this range is stacked with finishing options. Not only that, but this fight is still -240 to go the distance.

Dyer can throw volume but in her DWCS matchup, even with a win, she would have scored 77 DK points.

My only hesitation is that Dyer also attempted 11 takedowns in that fight. She landed 0 of them, and I think her wrestling kind of sucks, but Oliveira’s wrestling sucks too. I still don’t even know if Dyer wants to wrestle here given the matchup dynamic but I guess if she attempted a bunch of takedowns, she’d land some.

It would still have to result in a finish, where Dyer is only +240 to win ITD. And even if she did win ITD, I’m still unsure if she stands out within this stacked range.

My best guess is Dyer will be like 10 percent owned publicly with tons of ownership going above and below her. Given her high likelihood win, there’s some chance she can dominate. She could score 100 points. Her base outcomes from a projection standpoint come nowhere close to most others in this range though.

If you want to be unique, this is one place to consider but I don’t plan on attacking Dyer at all with a smaller portfolio.

Oliveira is priced at 6.8k and isn’t particularly exciting.

What you can look toward is that this is a low-level WMMA matchup where dogs come through at a higher rate, and the fight is also projected to go the distance. So Oliveira being competitive and landing some takedowns is possible.

Oliveira isn’t good though, and irrespective of the matchup analysis, she’s +385 to win. She will rate out OK as a floor punt, but her upside isn’t fantastic on paper at +700 ITD.

Using a small percent of Oliveira is fine as a floor based salary saver, but she’s going to rate out as a very low-end option, with the majority of fighters surrounding her having similar wine equity and superior upside.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Dyer by Decision (Confidence=Medium-High)

Melissa Mullins vs. Luana Carolina

Fight Odds: Carolina -130, Mullins +110

Odds to end ITD: +200

DraftKings Salaries: Carolina 8.2k, Mullins 8k

Weight Class: 135

*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim

We have a low level WMMA fight here between Melissa Mullins and Luana Carolina. 

Mullins is 7-2 professionally and is 2-2 in the UFC. In her UFC debut, she defeated Irina Alekseeva by essentially outboxing Alekseeva and controlling her on the mat. Mullins then lost to Nora Cornolle by getting finished with a body strike in round two.

We actually bet Mullins in her last win against Klaudia Sygula. It was evident that Mullins had a grappling advantage going into that fight and that played out as we thought. Mullins finished Sygula in round two on the mat. Mullins then lost to Daria Zhelezniakova by getting outstruck. She landed three takedowns but didn’t spread them over the rounds sufficiently enough to win. Had she maybe pushed for wrestling harder or earlier in rounds she probably could have won.

Mullins isn’t great, but she is at least functional in certain areas. As a striker, I don’t love Mullins’ game. She isn’t very athletic, and I do think she takes a little too much damage for my liking. She also only landed 52 significant strikes in three rounds against Alekseeva and can be low volume at times. 

Mullins is semi-functional on the feet though. She has a decent jab and straight punches. She can defend herself against the low tier strikers of this division. I generally think she will lose striking exchanges at this level though.

Mullins is best as a grappler. Her takedowns aren’t great, but they aren’t awful and she can take down low level opponents. She is also pretty strong in the clinch and that is where her takedowns are best.

I actually think Mullins’ top game is the best part of her game. She can advance position. She can slap in body triangles and flow on top reasonably well. I also think her bottom game is decent from what I have seen and she doesn’t get held down often. So she generally wins the positional battle on the mat vs low tier competition which will win her fights. Her top game is solid and she can beat weak grapplers there.

Mullins also has never been submitted and can generally stifle submissions on the mat. I generally think Mullins’ path to victory in the UFC is by outgrappling low level opponents.

Mullins will be taking on Luana Carolina. Carolina is a striker and a Thai striker more specifically. She uses a lengthy and evasive game to land some long punches and kicks. She is okay. She lands 4.65 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.46 in return. She only defends strikes at 51 percent.

Carolina is simply an okay striker who can compete against the low and average strikers in this weight class.

Carolina doesn’t wrestle much. She only lands 0.30 takedowns per 15 minutes and has never won by submission in her professional career. In some fights against Ivana Petrovic and Julija Stoliarenko, she did at least float on top and got some control time. Her offensive wrestling is still not good though.

Carolina defends takedowns at 68 percent and defended well in some of her recent fights. She can be pressured and clinched up and I have seen her taken down and controlled though. She also conceded five takedowns in her last matchup against Michelle Montague and was controlled for 10:43. Montague is a decent wrestler but it was still not a good performance by Carolina.

Carolina was also comically knee barred against Ariana Lipski a few years back. However, her TDD isn’t THAT bad. She sneakily beat Loopy Godinez and defended 13 of 15 takedown attempts by Godinez. She also defended well against Julija Stoliarenko. When she is actually grounded though, she does have trouble getting up at times. I also just don’t trust her submission defense after seeing the Lipski sequence. 

Also, even though I picked her and she beat Lucie Pudilova, I still hated the way Pudilova landed a couple of takedowns in that fight. Carolina struggled with below the waist takedowns and I still don’t totally trust Carolina as a defensive wrestler. Pudilova only attempted four takedowns and landed two, and the two takedowns came at the end of rounds one and three. Had Pudilova just wrestled more urgently and happened to land a takedown earlier in the round, I honestly think Pudilova would have won.

As far as this matchup goes, both girls have the most obvious paths to victory ever. Carolina is a better striker and if she defends takedowns, she should win. 

I think Carolina’s takedown defense is borderline good enough to defend takedowns here, but I just hate that one takedown could be the round for Mullins. Mullins’ wrestling isn’t great but her top game is decent. Carolina is also not good enough to count on being bullet proof defending takedowns.

The issue with Mullins is I feel like she may not wrestle enough. If she shoots 5-6 takedowns, which is her average, I would expect some of those to get stuffed. That may result in 1 or 2 takedowns which may not be enough. I would be so much more comfortable in Mullins if she chased 10 takedown attempts here but I doubt she hits that number.

I just feel like this is a low level fight where neither girl is trustworthy. I have a feeling Mullins is going to maybe take too long to land takedowns in rounds though, so I am going to pick Carolina to win. 

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On DraftKings, this is a pretty low level fight but it has some merit with the binary dynamic.

Of the two, Mullins is the one with real fantasy upside. She has a path to multiple takedowns, top control, and a shot at a ground based finish. She scored 103 DK points in her last win against Sygula.

She is not as urgent or as dominant as I would like though, and so it’s walking a fine line. Realistically, I’d want a finish from her to be optimal and if she only won a decision, I’d be very nervous she’d fall in the 80 point range.

Mullins is priced at 8k and is +415 to win ITD which is really poor. I do think her floor is alright given her grappling style, and given that Carolina gives up multiple takedowns to most opponents. If you can land multiple takedowns, you can exceed value.

I’m pretty nervous about this spot though. I mostly agree with Tim about her lack of urgency and if she lets one round go, that could kill off her ceiling. It just sucks because if she lands a takedown in round one and gets into mount, you’re gonna be sweating that pretty hard if you don’t have any exposure.

I’d essentially label Mullins as a low end secondary option this week. With a large portfolio, I’d definitely mix her in due to the grappling style and binary dynamic of the matchup. My best guess is that she fails to dominate though and therefore won’t be optimal on this slate.

Carolina is priced at 8.2k and needs a knockout.

She is only averaging 79 DK points in wins and her striking style isn’t well suited to reach a ceiling. Carolina is only +385 to win ITD here so she isn’t going to project well.

The only reason I wouldn’t completely rule her out is because we’ve seen Mullins hurt to the body multiple times now. The optics aren’t in her favor. So if she truly can’t get this fight to the ground, she might get beaten up.

I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Carolina had a random body shot moment late in the fight and won by TKO or something. This is a very low level matchup. At the same time, there’s no real way to recommend exposure here and I don’t plan on clicking Carolina’s name very often.

Carolina is only a contrarian play, and not one I’m dying to roster. I don’t want to label her as a complete fade, but the most likely outcome is that the fight goes the distance and Carolina fails to reach 10x DK points. If you want to sprinkle in a touch of her with a large portfolio in order to be unique, go for it.

Brett’s Fight Prediction: Carolina by Decision (Confidence=Low)