UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos (3/14/26)
Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Gordon Clark will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.
MAIN CARD
Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos
Fight Odds: Vallejos -550, Emmett +400
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Vallejos 9.6k, Emmett 6.6k
Weight Class: 145
Our main event matchup this week feels like a random one, but hopefully an entertaining one as surging prospect Kevin Vallejos takes on veteran mainstay Josh Emmett.
Vallejos is 17-1 professionally at age 24, and he’s earned 12 wins by knockout and two by submission.
He famously lost to Jean Silva on DWCS in 2023, in what was a fun and competitive scrap, and has been itching for the rematch ever since. In the UFC officially, Vallejos is 3-0, with early knockouts against Giga Chikadze and SeungWoo Choi, and a decision over Danny Silva.
Vallejos is primarily a boxer and he fights at a moderate pace. He lands 5.78 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 4.71 per minute with a 56 percent defensive rate.
Vallejos has done a decent job attacking multiple levels, landing 55.6 percent of his strikes to the head, 32.5 percent to the body and 11.9 percent to the legs. He isn’t a pure power boxer but he’s obviously powerful and generally effective. His most recent KO win over Chikadze came from a spinning backfist, which isn’t the most predictive technique but shows some creativity.
Vallejos can also wrestle a bit, and averages 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has only actually taken down one of his past five opponents, but he’s also defended takedowns well at 83 percent.
I honestly don’t have strong opinions on Vallejos because he rates out as a fairly straightforward action fighter. He can throw at a high pace and he can be effective. He can mix things up. He has some damage equity. He’s also pretty tough and has never been finished.
I don’t necessarily think he’s going to run away with rounds at the UFC level but his pace will keep him competitive. I don’t think he can easily outwrestle strong competition but hopefully he can defend well enough to avoid getting smothered.
Vallejos is still very young and looks like a potential staple of this division for years to come, but time will tell whether he actually has a championship level ceiling.
Josh Emmett debuted in the UFC in 2016 and this feels like his last chance to keep his name notable among the division’s best.
He’s lost four of his past five fights and is 41 years old, without a style that’s going to improve.
Emmett comes from a wrestling background but he’s a pretty limited wrestler for MMA. He only lands 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes and has only taken down three of his last 12 opponents.
For what it’s worth, one of those occasions was in his last main event against Lerone Murphy, whom Emmett took down four times and controlled for 3 minutes and 39 seconds. He’s not a great control wrestler though and not super dangerous as a submission grappler, holding no UFC wins by sub.
Emmett primarily excels as a power boxer. He has real power and has the ability to KO opponents dead. We haven’t seen him pick up many recent wins but his last victory was a brutal first-round KO over Bryce Mitchell in 2023.
Power is not an attribute you want to rely on, and otherwise, Emmett has negative striking ratios. He lands 3.72 sig strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.43 per minute with a 60 percent striking defense. It’s not the worst rate in the world, but in each of his last six extended fights, he’s been outlanded at distance.
In a five round fight, Emmett can hang around but he needs damage to win, or tons of wrestling control. We already noted how he’s tough to trust in that area, so otherwise, he’s simply getting outlanded over the duration and occasionally having big moments with big shots landed.
This feels like a tough matchup for Emmett given his style and the perceived toughness of Vallejos.
On paper, sure Emmett can land a couple of takedowns. I wouldn’t trust that he can control Vallejos for any length of time. Vallejos is a more active striker and likely the more durable of the two. Emmett is tough but he’s been hurt in some recent fights.
I think the two most likely outcomes here are that Vallejos kind of beats Emmett up en route to a decision, or beats him up and stops him along the way. Emmett landing a big KO is possible but feels like a thin outcome. Wrestling on either side is possible but I really don’t think it will matter enough to swing the dynamics of the matchup.
I’m not counting Emmett out because he’s tough, powerful and experienced but I have to favor the younger, hungrier and more active striker in Vallejos.
—
On DraftKings, Vallejos is priced at 9.6k and does not feel like a priority to me, despite the main event status.
What I will say from the start though, is that despite this, I do feel safer with Vallejos than a lot of other options priced in the upper 8k and lower 9k range. There is a huge tier from 9.4k to 8.8k that is filled with theoretical upside targets, but I don’t view many of them as safe and I think a lot of underdogs in those matchups are live.
Because of this, my first constructions actually feel the best paying all the way up to the top because I think there are many viable cheap targets, and I like Vallejos’ floor/ceiling combination in a win, given his style and given the main event status.
Purely in a vacuum though, Vallejos is expensive and despite the lack of safety below him, there’s a good chance some of those fighters win and when they win, they will score well.
I highly recommend checking out MMA Labs if you haven’t yet, but according to our backdated history, in the last 15 slates with 14 fights, 13 fighters have been priced at 9.6k or higher, and only one was optimal. There have been 25 fighters priced 9.5k or higher, and only four have been optimal.
It’s simply not easy to be this expensive with this many fights, and come away optimal. And you can make the case that with public ownership on the main event, Vallejos is simply not a priority.
Vallejos isn’t going to wrestle at a high rate, and over five rounds, and he’ll project for 140-150 sig strikes landed. That is a high number but if he lands 150 sig strikes, he’d score about 90 DK points without any extracurriculars.
So we really need more. We need a higher paced, early KO from Vallejos to hit a ceiling. And then you still have to question whether he gets outscored by someone else in the top end or gets priced off the optimal.
Vallejos has won by early TKO twice in the UFC already, and scored 108 and 91 DK points. Both would likely be a bust at 9.6k. I do think he has more upside but I’m also not sold Emmett dies in the first round here, and the line is a near pick’em to go O/U 3.5 rounds.
Vallejos will project well and is a solid play in all formats, but I really don’t view him as a must in large field tournaments. He’s -165 to win ITD but I think is more likely to score 100-110 than he is to score 125+.
I do view Vallejos more as a secondary target this week, and I do view him a level ahead of most from a safety, and floor standpoint. If I can afford him, I’ll still consider him. He’s better in smaller fields and cash games, and should put up a fair score in any kind of win. I don’t think he has unbeatable upside in a matchup that’s projected to see round 3 or 4 though.
Emmett is priced at 6.6k and doesn’t interest me a whole lot.
He’ll project fine for floor purposes at this cost and might be a cash game punt to consider. But he’s not going to project well for win equity, and we ultimately need him to win.
What he will project well for is win scenarios, meaning that if Emmett does pull off the upset, he might crush. He’d probably need a knockout or lots of wrestling, and either way, he’d score well for the cost.
Emmett is averaging 91 points per win which is decent, and that obviously factors in a lot of three-round fights. In a five-rounder, his win expectation will be higher. He always has mild damage equity and is +550 to win ITD.
Ultimately, he’s just not a priority and is really nothing more than a punt. There are 13 other underdogs on this slate who have more win equity than Emmett, and I’d rather pay up for most of them. Throw a couple shots on Emmett in large fields for the savings/upside/leverage if you have room, but I don’t expect to be too invested in him in any format this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Vallejos by TKO, RD 3 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson
Fight Odds: Robertson -195, Lemos +170
Odds to end ITD: +120
DraftKings Salaries: Robertson 8.6k, Lemos 7.6k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
Ever since coming down to strawweight, Gillian Robertson has been on a roll and she is looking to make it five in a row this weekend against Amanda Lemos.
Grappling is all Robertson really does, and she is pretty much only going to win fights by submission, or by decision with top time.
Robertson’s striking is not very good. She lands 2.86 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.86 in return. She defends strikes at 56 percent. The purpose of her striking is just to limit striking engagements and set up her takedowns. She isn’t going to win many rounds on the feet.
Robertson’s takedowns are pretty decent for WMMA. She has a good single leg and a lot of takedown diversity. She lands 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands takedowns at a 40 percent rate. Once she gets on top, she is very dangerous and skilled as a submission grappler.
Robetson’s passing stats are off the charts. I won’t go too much into detail with them. However, she basically gets a pass or two for every takedown that she lands. So she is very capable of getting to dominant positions like back takes and locking in submissions.
I have never liked Robertson’s physicality. She sometimes has major issues when she goes against strong girls. Santos and Maverick were able to neutralize Robertson because they were much more physical than her.
However, she looks a lot bigger and stronger at strawweight and I think the drop in weight class was a great decision by her. So perhaps physicality will not be as big of an issue for her going forward and it hasn’t looked to be an issue in most of her strawweight fights.
One thing people seem to forget is that Robertson is not a good defensive wrestler. She defends takedowns at 41 percent and isn’t really interested in defending takedowns.
It makes sense because she wants the fight on the mat anyway which is fine. However, on her back, she can actually be controlled and her get ups are not great. So she is prone to being controlled on the mat herself which is something that people probably overlook. Robertson can attack with good armbars off her back. However, she needs to be in top position to win fights, and I don’t like that she can be controlled on the mat.
Robertson will be taking on Amanda Lemos. Lemos is a power striker. She lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.24 in return. However, most of her strikes absorbed all came against Leslie Smith when Lemos was very tired, and against other good competition. The other main one was against Weili Zhang which is understandable. So I tend to think that she is a bit better of a striker than her metrics indicate.
I do expect Lemos to have success in this division with her striking because she is technical and powerful, and she is capable of hurting and knocking out opponents. She is a very heavy hitter and has rare power for this weight class.
Lemos is an okay offensive grappler. She lands 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and can float on top position a little bit. She also has random power guillotines in her game as well. She is a plus finisher for this weight class.
Lemos actually recently outwrestled Iasmin Lucindo, and landed three takedowns and obtained enough top time in the first two rounds to win the fight. Lemos was outwrestled and held down in round three though.
Lemos is pretty physically strong. However, I will say that Lemos’ defensive grappling has been an issue. She defends takedowns at 64 percent and was outgrappled by Zhang, Dern, and Jandiroba. Those are all elite grapplers and fighters so I can forgive Lemos to a degree. However, I just tend to think Lemos gives up soft takedowns and looks like a bit of a liability off her back.
Lesser fighters will likely struggle to replicate what Zhang, Dern, and Jandiroba could do to Lemos. However, I do think decent grapplers can still take Lemos down and occasionally hold her down. You saw it against Lucindo in round three.
I still thought Lemos’ defensive grappling and physicality looked decent vs Tatiana Suarez in her last matchup. Suarez landed three takedowns but on 12 attempts and I thought Lemos defended semi well at times.
Obviously this is a binary fight though and if Lemos for whatever reason gets some striking time, she will beat the crap out of Robertson. So you can’t completely rule out a Lemos win.
It’s tough because I think Lemos’ defensive grappling is okay but not great. I think it’s good enough to potentially have stretches of success. However, Lemos will have to take advantage of any striking time she gets.
I don’t think Lemos will be bullet proof here though, and I do think Robertson probably lands some takedowns. I really like Robertson’s top game and I don’t think a finish on the mat for Robertson is out of the question. I am going to pick Robertson here.
I still have some worries for Robertson though. Lemos isn’t awful as a defensive wrestler and Lemos is physical which Robertson has struggled against before. I am going to go with Robertson but not with as much confidence in some of Robertson’s previous matchups.
—
On DraftKings, Robertson is one of a couple mid-range grapplers who I expect will get attention.
This matchup was scheduled for the end of last year and we had Robertson priced at 8.8k there, but now she’s only priced at 8.6k and it’s difficult to ignore her upside. Yes, she’s going to rate out as an extremely boom/bust grappling option and I wouldn’t necessarily label her safe, but when she wins, we know how it will look.
Robertson is averaging 102.5 DK points in wins, and if you want to take it a step further, she has never scored less than 92 DK points in any of her 13 UFC wins. This matchup dynamic is extremely binary, so if Robertson does win, her top game is very likely to lead her to 90ish points once again, with the potential to score 100+ and be optimal.
At 8.6k, you don’t have to tug my arm too hard to get me to take chances on her, and I expect that’s how the field will feel as well.
This isn’t a sure thing with Robertson only +180 to win ITD, and with 14 fights on the card, perhaps that’s one reason to be cautious or pivot from time to time. But Robertson is going to rate out as a pretty strong secondary mid-range option for her grappling style and has a fairly realistic shot to score in the mid 90s or above.
Lemos is priced at 7.6k and I consider her a leverage play primarily.
Lemos will project terribly, I’m sure of it. Robertson limits strikes and with a top control game, Lemos won’t carry any floor whatsoever. Even in a win, Lemos isn’t guaranteed.
What you’re hoping for here is for Lemos to keep the fight upright as long as possible where she’ld actually have a shot to beat Robertson up and get a TKO. I don’t think that’s an extremely likely outcome but Lemos is way better than Robertson standing, so it wouldn’t be out of the question.
Lemos is +500 to win ITD which is worse than a lot of fighters priced below her. I highly doubt she ends up popular though based on the matchup and slate dynamic. I’m not picking her to win but if you want to use a bit of her for the leverage against Robetson, and the binary dynamic of the matchup, I think that’s pretty reasonable.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Robertson by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Andre Fili vs. Jose Delgado
Fight Odds: Delgado -410, Fili +340
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Delgado 9.3k, Fili 6.9k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a fun action fight here in the featherweight division between Jose Delgado and Andre Fili.
Delgado is a fun fighter and I thought he got hosed in his last matchup which was a unanimous 29-28 decision loss to Nathaniel Wood. This is coming from a guy who picked Wood to win as well. Delgado won round one and hurt Wood badly. Then the last two rounds were very competitive and Wood squeaked out a decision. Most people scored it for Delgado. He outlanded Wood 134-99 in significant strikes.
Delgado is 10-2 professionally and is an action striker. He is longer and lankier at 5’11” with a 74 inch reach, and I actually like his striking, especially offensively. He is creative and has that tall man power as well, and can knock opponents dead. He also uses all limbs and will throw punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. He is most dangerous early in fights but he still stayed tough in rounds two and three vs Wood, and had success in those later rounds.
I would say my biggest criticism of Delgado’s striking is simply that he’s hittable which will just cause variance in his fights. When you get hit, shit just happens. He landed 134 significant strikes against Wood but still got hit 99 times.
Delgado can also land takedowns here and there, but I don’t think he is a great wrestler. I have seen him taken down and held down to a degree but I think against average grapplers, he will generally work up fine. Good grapplers can probably have success against him though.
I just see Delgado as a guy who can compete against most of this division standing and beat the crap out of the lower tier guys.
Delgado will be taking on Andre Fili who is coming off a split decision win against Cristian Rodriguez.
I have never minded Fili. Fili is a decent striker. He lands 3.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.23 in return. He defends strikes at 51 percent. Those aren’t the best striking numbers but Fili has fought good competition. Fili is a sharp counter striker capable of landing knockouts with precise shots. He has good straight punches that complement his long frame and can also mix in some decent kicks.
I also consider Fili a competent grappler. He actually lands 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes and I consider him an underrated offensive wrestler. He has a really good double leg. I don’t consider Fili’s top game all that great. However, he can hold position against weak grapplers.
Defensively, Fili is decent as a wrestler. He defends takedowns at 71 percent and is a capable scrambler once taken down. Good wrestlers like Bryce Mitchell can have success against Fili. However, I think average or below-average grapplers will generally be neutralized by Fili.
My main concern with Fili is his chin / age. He has been knocked out / finished in two of his last three losses including a first round knockout in his most recent loss against Dan Ige. However, to be fair to him, he has only been knocked out twice in the last ten years which spans 17 fights which honestly kind of surprised me.
As far as this matchup goes, I do favor Delgado a bit. The big advantage Delgado has is durability. If someone gets knocked dead here it will very likely be Fili. Delgado is seriously dangerous and Fili just gets hurt often. Fili has power himself though and MMA is random, so I won’t rule out Fili landing something big. However, I would consider that more so random than predictable.
I think Fili can maybe land a takedown or two but I doubt he can ground Delgado for long stretches.
My guess is these guys just strike and Delgado will have that durability edge. If the fight extends on the feet, I think it will be competitive just because Delgado is a bit hittable. However, I would still probably favor Delgado mildly as I like his volume and power just a bit more, and expect him to land a little more effectively.
—
On DraftKings, Delgado is priced up to 9.3k but still on my radar.
Typically, this isn’t the kind of fight I would get too excited by. Delgado isn’t likely to wrestle, and it very well may just be a competitive striking affair.
However, the pace should be high, and IF Delgado can win by early TKO, he has a chance to smash. In his last three wins, which have all come by knockout, Delgado has scored 128, 108 and 116.
His last loss would have only scored 97 DK points, which is still fine, though that also came with a knockdown. You simply have to be aware that if he wins by decision, Delgado probably scores in the 80s and comes nowhere close to the optimal.
It’s simply not my favorite spot to bet on, especially against an opponent who is historically solid and durable.
With that said, Fili has been getting hurt a little bit more recently AND this fight is actually -250 to end inside the distance. Delgado is -170 to win ITD which is one of the best lines on this slate.
If I had to guess, Delgado is being overvalued to win ITD. His best career win is Hyder Amil and his second best win is Connor Matthews. However, I also think Delgado may get lost in the shuffle this week with a couple of strong options at the top of the board, and Petrino/Orolbai/Rahiki priced directly below him.
Because of the combination of all these things, I can get behind Delgado at 9.3k. What I specifically like is the pacing + ITD line which will allow him to reach a ceiling with a finish. You’re still relying on some variance to roll your way with the finish, but I also kind of think Delgado is safer than those priced directly below him. He’s a solid target all things considered.
Fili is priced at 6.9k and isn’t completely off the table either.
The bottom tier is filled with solid options, many of whom I believe have a chance for the upset.
I’d probably rank Fili behind the majority of them but Fili is a fine, competent striker who can land, and Delgado was just dropped by Wood. There’s enough variance in striking exchanges where Fili could win a round, or hurt Delgado, or land a couple of takedowns.
I guess what is holding me back a bit is the ITD line, where the odds suggest it’s more likely that Fili gets crushed than that it’s a competitive decision. He’s a safe bet for 60 strikes over 15 minutes but that probably doesn’t do you a whole lot of good on this slate.
Fili himself is only +525 to win ITD which isn’t strong. Historically he’s a fine play in this kind of spot and I do think he has a shot to make the fight competitive, or hurt Delgado. But it’s probably not a great shot, and I’m sort of betting against this whole camp who are approaching the end of their careers.
I would be ok with a small percent of Fili just given some striking variance but he’s only a low end target and not someone I’m likely to end up with much exposure to on this slate.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Delgado by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Marwan Rahiki vs. Harry Hardwick
Fight Odds: Rahiki -275, Hardwick +235
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Rahiki 9.2k, Hardwick 7k
Weight Class: 145
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
We keep the card moving with a fun featherweight clash between Harry “Houdini” Hardwick and Marwan “Freaky” Rahiki. Let’s dive in.
Harry Hardwick looks to rebound after a disappointing fight in his debut, as he was leg kicked into oblivion by Kaue Fernandes, getting TKO’d three minutes into the first round. He had to exit the cage via a wheelchair, a debut I’m sure he hoped went a little different.
Hardwick is not a bad fighter by any means, but a short notice debut up a weight class and an apparent inability to defend leg kicks wasn’t the best combination. Now, the Cage Warriors vet looks to get his first win and showcase his skills. Hardwick is now 13-4-1, with a 54% finish rate split between three KOs and four submission victories. We have seen him compete briefly with Bellator, but he has spent most of his career at Cage Warriors where he was a champion and defended his belt a few times.
Hardwick is a pressure forward fighter with incredible heart and durability, and solid minute winning. He isn’t the most explosive athlete, but can win minutes with pressure and volume, crowding his opponents, as well as winning through the wrestling where he is able to chain together takedowns and obtain back control.
He isn’t the most dynamic fighter in either realm, but he has the fundamentals down and is able to compete in all areas without hesitation. He does look to be extremely durable. Maybe not in the legs, but the chin has done quite well for him in the past. That was his first KO loss and we have seen time and time again on the regional scene where Hardwick relies on the chin, eats punches with his face and continues to walk forward. That has done well for him, and his ability to eat a shot to give back 2-3 bodes well with his pressure first style.
He is not the most explosive athlete and only has one first round finish on his record. Most of his wins are coming late or by decision with that minute winning. He is a competent grappler and has shown the ability to chain takedowns and take the back, but his lack of physicality has haunted him in the past and he often does his best work when his opponents slow down.
Overall, Hardwick is a tough fighter who is competent in all areas. He can wrestle well, pressure forward at a high clip and can win minutes or break fighters later into the fights. However, I do worry about his lack of explosiveness and poor striking defence, as he is a beatable fighter early.
Marwan “Freaky” Rahiki had a wild Dana White’s Contender Series fight last October, where he fought through incredible adversity to achieve a round two KO and UFC contract, winning over plenty of fans in the process. He will now look to improve the 7-0 record in the UFC and continue to grow the fan base.
Rahiki is only 23 years old and has shown decent promise so far inside the cage. He still maintains a 100% finish rate with 6 KOs and a single submission win, coming in the 4th round. He hasn’t fought the best level of competition but he has shown a pretty well-rounded skill set and great urgency inside the Octagon.
The thing about Rahiki is although we have our questions about his defensive tendencies, he is an entertaining fighter with bad intentions behind his shots. Everything he throws is looking to hurt his opponents, including some devastating kicks and elbows in his Contender Series finish last year. That comes with a price though as he can be hit, and he was brutally rocked in his last fight, a spot where other refs could’ve stopped that fight and given him his first pro loss.
Instead, I did like how he fought through adversity and was able to stay in that fight with pure heart. However you cannot put aside how hittable he is, as that can come back to haunt him.
Offensively, he has a ton of tools. He throws heavy elbows, has plenty of flashy kicks and his boxing is very powerful. His constant pace and pressure has broken people before and although he hasn’t fought the best competition, he has been able to break all his opponents with that pace and power.
We already touched on his lack of defense in the striking, but it’s actually the defensive wrestling that I do think can be a problem for him. He can be taken down quite easily since he is always pressing forward.
Although he can end up on his back, I do like his ability to scramble and work his way up to the feet. He does have okay offensive grappling. It isn’t amazing, but he is still young and improving, and that ground game is something that I would like to see him shore up.
Overall, Rahiki is a purely offensive fighter with great power and a variety of dangerous attacks. He will be in plenty of great fights but sacrifices his defense, both in the striking and in the wrestling department, which are aspects I would like to see improved on or else they will be taken advantage of by the higher echelon of the division.
I am looking forward to this fight, not only because “Freaky Rahiki” is contending for one of my favourite nicknames, but because this has the making of a very entertaining match-up. If you haven’t seen Rahiki’s Contender Series fight, I highly recommend you do.
I was actually really impressed by Rahiki prior to that match-up and had a decent sized wager on him, and he definitely made me sweat. His regional tape is impressive, as he has all finishes and plenty of action. But we never saw much resistance and it wasn’t until that DWCS fight where we finally saw someone take advantage of the lack of defense and hurt him badly.
He fought through adversity which only made me like him more, as he rallied through that and continued to wing powerful shots and hunt the finish. So yes, one day someone will take advantage of that lack of defense. But will it be Hardwick? Hardwick himself has no defense either and I don’t think he has the explosiveness to take advantage of the openings Rahiki leaves.
So sure, Hardwick can win minutes late if he wears on Rahiki. I actually think Hardwick has a wrestling path as well, since Rahiki does give up takedowns quite easily. But Rahiki does scramble up well and there will be a clear power and optics edge to him on the feet. So I do think it’ll be a fun fight.
The most likely outcome is Rahiki hitting too hard, winning optics early and probably hurting Hardwick who also has a lack of defense. But the longer the fight goes, the more Hardwick has a path and the more he’ll have upside late.
So I’ll say Rahiki early or Hardwick taking over late. I’m going to lean with Rahiki just being too explosive early, potentially finding a finish or getting up on the judges scorecards early, although I will admit the line is wide regardless of how much I am a fan of his style. Hopefully Rahiki’s team watches tape and throws leg kicks though, if he wants to make this a bit easier on himself.
—
On DraftKings, this is a pretty fun matchup and it’s probably worth some kind of investment.
I’ll say from the jump, this feels like a classic overcorrection spot. Hardwick lost a short notice debut, up a weight class, from leg kicks. Now he’s dropping back to featherweight and fighting an opponent who just scored a beautiful KO win on DWCS but was knocked down twice in the process and essentially was TKOd.
I think Gordo gave a fair analysis of the fight but reiterating a couple of notes – Hardwick is the more technical striker here and Rahiki showed really questionable defense in that last matchup. Hardwick is also the better wrestler.
It just doesn’t scream like a matchup where Rahiki should be a heavy favorite, especially as he lands only 9 percent of his strikes to the legs, compared to Fernandes who lands 32 percent to the legs, according to MMA Labs.
With that said, Rahiki clearly has firepower and I think he’s a dangerous offensive fighter, who has good length for the division and will probably continue to score knockouts when he wins. Or he can simply win striking optics. Both outcomes are in play here.
At 9.2k, you’re going to want the knockout though which is my concern. Hardwick’s only KO loss was via leg kicks and Rahiki doesn’t have a ton of wrestling equity. He still rates out well at -105 to win ITD but even on the regional scene a lot of his wins came past the first round.
I’m lukewarm on Rahiki ultimately. I think he’s a fine secondary option and I think he carries some upside with his fighting style. He’s a dangerous striker and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him hurt Hardwick. I do think he’s a bit overvalued in this spot and I don’t consider him a true priority within this 9k range.
Hardwick at 7k interests me a little bit.
Largely due to the potential overcorrection that I already noted. He’s still not a surefire pick or anything but he’s super cheap and with such an embarrassing UFC debut, I doubt the public will be on him.
Now he gets an opponent who was just KOd dead and had to be woken up in order to fight back through adversity, which I’ll be honest did impress me, but I still think Hardwick is a skilled enough boxer to have success. I also think he can land takedowns.
Even if you get a high paced decision, you’re probably OK with that outcome for Hardwick at 7k.
I’m probably going to pick Rahiki to win on pure optics but I really think minute to minute this should be competitive and I give Hardwick a real shot to win. He’s +335 to win ITD and with some additional wrestling equity, considering the cost and low public ownership, I think he’s a pretty viable salary saver.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rahiki by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy
Fight Odds: Sy -265, Cutelaba +225
Odds to end ITD: -200
DraftKings Salaries: Sy 8.8k, Cutelaba 7.4k
Weight Class: 205
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have an interesting fight here as Oumar Sy will take on Ion Cutelaba.
Sy is 12-1 professionally and fights out of France. He is actually the brother of Sadibou Sy who is a pretty well-known fighter in PFL.
Before his UFC debut, Sy generally fought in random regional promotions. He fought in KSW which is a respectable promotion. In his UFC debut, Sy quickly finished Tokkos on the mat. He then defeated Da Woon Jung by decision, and actually outlanded Jung 78-25 at range which was a decent striking performance by him.
Sy was then upset by Alonzo Menifield in his one loss. Sy was unable to consistently take Menifield down and basically got pulled into a low volume striking affair. It was a bit of a disappointing performance by him. He then dominated Brendson Ribeiro and finished him in round one, which isn’t saying much as Ribeiro is horrible.
I still think Sy is okay. He is very green, but he is a good athlete. He can strike a bit and stay safe, and has some power in his hands.
Ultimately, Sy likes to shoot takedowns and obtain top position. He is actually pretty good at riding the back, floating with hooks in and can threaten with RNCs as well. He actually uses cross body wrist rides well to land ground-and-pound and manipulate his opponents.
The issue is Sy doesn’t come from a wrestling background and has fallen in love with wrestling. His persistence to wrestle will work vs. non wrestlers. However, he just won’t be able to outwrestle anyone who is a solid defensive wrestler and the Menifield fight kind of showed that.
I think Sy needs some time to develop but his athleticism and decent wrestling game should be enough for him to win some UFC fights. I also like that I have seen him fight for 15 minutes without slowing down.
Sy will be taking on Ion Cutelaba. Cutelaba is kind of a brawler / wrestler. He lands 3.77 takedowns per 15 minutes which is quite good. He can definitely take down weak grapplers, and have his way with them on the mat and land good GNP. However, I don’t consider his grappling all that technical and I don’t expect him to out wrestle any good wrestlers.
Cutelaba is also kind of a bit of a liability defensively as a grappler, especially from a submission grappling perspective. He defends takedowns at 75 percent which is solid and I consider his first layer TDD pretty good. However, he has been submitted three times in the last five years and I kind of worry about him when he is grounded on his back. He can be exploited there.
On the feet, Cutelaba is okay and is more of a brawler than anything else. He lands 4.26 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.34 in return. Those are decent metrics but I think they are skewed as a lot of Cutelaba’s striking success comes from GNP. He only defends strikes at 47 percent and I don’t completely trust his durability. He did still show he was dangerous recently when he knocked out Tanner Boser.
There is just a lot of variance in Cutelaba’s fights, as he gets finished often but he is dangerous himself. Cutelaba should have just won a volume striking fight against Bukauskas but lost a controversial split decision. So Cutelaba is capable standing, he’s just not great.
As far as this matchup goes, this is kind of a weird fight that can go a few different ways.
I honestly think this is very competitive if it stays striking. I sort of trust Sy’s youth and durability a bit more on the feet. But like how confident can you actually be in Sy in a striking based decision? Sy fought a low volume affair and only landed 34 significant strikes against Menifield. Cutelaba isn’t great but either guy can win a striking based decision. I do lean Sy as the more likely guy to win by knockout though.
The wrestling is interesting. I have not actually seen much of Sy’s defensive grappling. Cutelaba isn’t a good offensive wrestler but he’s probably more capable than anyone Sy has fought, so maybe Cutelaba has a hidden path to victory here. I sort of lean against the grappling of Cutelaba coming easily though.
I don’t think Sy is that good of a wrestler and Cutelaba has decent first layer takedown defense, so I don’t know if Sy easily outgrapples Cutelaba either. But I seriously don’t like Cutelaba once he is actually grounded so I do think Sy has some moderate grappling upside here and it wouldn’t shock me if Sy dominates if he gets on top.
I think each guy has some plausible paths to victory. However, I think Sy has a few more paths and I do think I trust Sy’s ability to finish this fight much more, both standing and on the mat. So I am going to pick Sy.
I could see this being close though. Sy has basically beaten bums and his only decent opponent was Menifield who beat him. Cutelaba is a step up even if Cutelaba isn’t perfect so a competitive fight wouldn’t be shocking.
—
On DraftKings, this is kind of a hit or miss fight.
We’ve long been interested in targeting Cutelaba fights because he’s so aggressive and tends to win or lose inside the distance. That trend has kind of disappeared recently though, and we’ve seen Cutelaba fight more patiently. He’s now gone the distance in three of his last four fights.
Sy has grappling upside on paper, but he’s also shown a willingness to be patient and not force exchanges. It just leads me to believe that a slow paced, competitive decision is very much on the table. I can’t rule out some domination equity for either side though.
Sy is priced at 8.8k and I’d be looking for a ground based finish from him at this cost.
We’ve seen Sy put up 106 and 113 DK points in his two submission wins, and that ceiling definitely intrigues me in a matchup against Cutelaba who has been submitted a few times. In Sy’s lone decision, he scored 82 DK points.
The reality is, Sy could easily bust. If he’s not taking Cutelaba down, holding him down and submitting him, he’s probably not scoring well. I’m not certain he will be urgent with his takedowns and I’m also not certain one or two takedowns leads to a finish. At 8.8k I do think it’s a risk.
Conversely, Sy has taken down all four of his opponents, he’s secured two early ground finishes and Cutelaba has a questionable history on the mat. Sy is -110 to win ITD here so he’s going to rate out fine.
I’d consider him a boom/bust grappler all things considered. He makes sense as a secondary target and is a fine option if you can’t pay up into the 9k range. There’s just not a lot of safety or certainty with him reaching his ceiling.
Cutelaba is priced at 7.2k and I’m honestly not as interested in him as many other cheap fighters within this range.
I’ve been high on Cutelaba in some spots but I like him against weak grapplers and breakable opponents. I could see Cutelaba winning but I don’t think he has tremendous knockout equity and I’m not sure he can easily dominate Sy on the mat.
The primary positive angle to use for Cutelaba is that he is averaging nearly 105 DK points per win. Theory suggests when he wins, he will crush and therefore, he’s a viable option in any matchup.
I again want to point out that despite this, we’ve seen him trend away a little bit recently. He won a recent decision that scored 73 points and had he won against Bukauskas last time out, Cutelaba would have only put up 70 points.
So my primary worry here is that if he wins, it’s a competitive decision where he scores in that 70 range, which still may not be optimal. He’s not an awful target and rates out OK at +355 ITD, but I like some of the other matchups better in this bottom tier and I don’t expect I’ll end up with too much exposure to him personally.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sy by RNC, RD 2 (Confidence=Medium)
Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund
Fight Odds: Petrino -240, Asplund +205
Odds to end ITD: -220
DraftKings Salaries: Petrino 9k, Asplund 7.2k
Weight Class: HW
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night continues with a heavyweight banger, as Vitor Petrino takes on the surging Steven Asplund in a fight that promises fireworks for as long as it lasts. Let’s dive in.
Vitor Petrino started his UFC career at light heavyweight and has since moved up to heavyweight, where he is now 2-0 with two finish wins over Austen Lane and Thomas Petersen. That puts his record at 13-2 overall, and 7-2 in the UFC.
Back in 2024, down at light heavyweight, Petrino was on a solid run and looking to crack the top 10. He was a large favorite against Anthony Smith in a winnable matchup, but put himself in a guillotine choke and took his first pro loss. He then followed that up with a round three KO loss to Dustin Jacoby in sort of a late stunner, which prompted the move up to heavyweight.
He filled out his frame well and has certainly been taking his vitamins… if you know what I’m implying here. At his core, Petrino is a powerful striker with eight KO wins and a 77% finish rate.
Prior to the UFC, he was solely a power striker with plenty of early finishes, but since joining the UFC he has been utilizing his wrestling at a high clip to get his victories. He’s now averaging 3.04 TDs per 15 minutes and holds a couple of submission wins.
Petrino is an incredible athlete, which is key to his fighting style. He won’t throw the most volume, landing only 2.75 strikes per minute, but every single shot has big power and bad intentions. He isn’t the best striker from range and we have seen him KO’d now, but often he is looking to clinch and hasn’t been relying on that power as much.
He has landed a takedown in each one of his UFC wins and has a TD accuracy of 51%. His cardio has seemed to hold up as of late, but he still hasn’t had many gruelling matchups that have tested it, as they are typically involving him controlling his opponents from top position.
Overall, Petrino is a big, athletic power puncher who has developed a solid wrestling game inside the UFC. He doesn’t land the most volume but has the ability to shut your lights out or win minutes on the feet with the additional layer of being able to take you down and control you. I would like Petrino to shore up the minute winning and volume striking, as well as prove his cardio to me before trusting him at too high of a clip, but does seem like a decent contender in this division due to his well-rounded skill set and explosive nature.
Steven Asplund burst onto the scene on last year’s season of Dana White’s Contender Series with a 16 second KO of Anthony Gurascio as an underdog. He followed that up last December with a record breaking win over Sean Sharaf where he landed 172 strikes in an eight minute KO victory.
He showed great volume, pressure and microphone skills, winning over the fan base at that time. We have a small sample size but it’s funny to see that his strikes landed per minute is sitting at 19.93. Either way, that’s the style Asplund brings inside the Octagon. He is a high volume striker who looks to put a pace on you and break you with constant pressure and output.
He hits somewhat hard, but isn’t going to blow you away with power or technique. He does have a solid frame for the division and considering he used to weigh over 400 pounds, he has really good cardio for what we’ve seen from him. We also saw him take some big shots from Sharaf and walk right through them. The durability looks to be pretty solid and he’s able to fight through adversity.
Now the issue with Asplund is although we have seen two impressive wins from him, we still have some unanswered questions, most notably in the ground game. In his sole loss, we saw him taken down and controlled by Denzel Freeman en route to a second round submission loss. His takedown defense didn’t look great and on his back, he was stuck there without much sense of how to get back up.
So at this moment in time, he is projecting as a solid volume striker with incredible pace and cardio for the division, but he may also have a true hole in his grappling. I would like to see him show an ability to get off his back and work his way back to his feet, as well as show that pace against better competition before trusting him too much at the top of this division, although his last two performances were inspiring.
This fight has fireworks written all over it. I do think Asplund has a path. He’ll be bigger than Petrino and can probably out volume him down the stretch. I mean if we compare his 19.93 strikes per minute to Petrino’s 2.75, it’s a pretty funny comparison.
However, although the pace and volume is there for Asplund, Petrino has more paths to getting this one done. He has the power edge and the ability to test a pretty hittable chin from Asplund. But it’s the ground game that is the big red flag for Asplund. He was absolutely mauled by Freeman on the mat in his only loss, and looked like a fish out of water.
Although I think Freeman is better technically than Petrino, Petrino has pushed a heavy wrestling pace and has solid athleticism to get his takedowns. From the small sample size Asplund has shown, Petrino might only need one takedown and that could be the round or even the fight. So although I do think Asplund has some success in an extended striking affair, I do expect Petrino to attempt takedowns and I think he gets them.
Give me Petrino to get this down with his wrestling and have a clear grappling edge. But from a fan perspective I wouldn’t mind seeing Petrino stand and bang for a bit…
—
On DraftKings, I am interested in this fight and will project a solid score from the winner.
We have a nice combination of pace expectation and offensive expectation, meaning that Asplund is going to force exchanges at a high rate, but lacks defensive technique. He just landed 170 sig strikes in less than 9 minutes which is insane, and his style is built on volume.
Petrino is going to be forced to engage, and I think a finish is likely to materialize because of it.
Petrino is priced at 9k and definitely interests me. I think he has a clear path to grappling success and he also may have knockout equity. If he cannot implement his wrestling game or knock Asplund out early, I honestly expect him to lose.
So I’m not sure I would consider this a safe matchup for Petrino, but I do think in wins, it’s likely an early finish. He is -115 to win ITD which is a decent line though not necessarily a standout.
Petrino averages 97 DK points in wins and the matchup with Asplund gives him a super high floor in my opinion, so I am willing to target him. I don’t think he has to be the priority A on this slate but he’s among my favorite options in this price tier and I will likely aim for moderate exposure.
Asplund is priced at 7.2k and feels like a worthwhile underdog to roster.
I am guessing he’ll be popular, and potentially too popular for his win expectation but coming off a 138 DK score, I understand why. He won’t get the same type of matchup here against Petrino but his goal will be the same, and I do think there are ways he can break Petrino with volume.
Petrino is so clearly a better athlete, and is more powerful and the better wrestler. But Petrino can only throw so many shots because of his style, and if Asplund is still standing, Asplund is going to be throwing and connecting. I think a mid-round TKO win is fairly realistic for Asplund although that’s under the premise he has survived grappling exchanges which is tough to project.
Asplund is +325 to win ITD which still shows some finishing equity, and we’ve already seen Petrino knocked out by Jacoby and knocked down by Bellato. Petrino has sneakily fought a lot of low volume strikers too.
I kind of like Asplund as a secondary option this week. I do think he has a win case and will score well with a win, and he obviously saves a lot of salary. Because I assume he will be chalky, I’m not expecting to be super heavy on him compared to the field, but I do like being in on this fight and want a mix of Asplund into my portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Petrino by RNC, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-Low)
UNDERCARD
Charles Johnson vs. Bruno Silva
Fight Odds: Johnson -160, Silva +140
Odds to end ITD: +110
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson 8.7k, Silva 7.5k
Weight Class: 125
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a competitive matchup here in the featherweight division between two UFC veterans with a ton of experience in Charles Johnson and Bruno Silva.
Johnson is a solid striker with some ups and downs in the UFC, including a recent knockout loss to Alex Perez. However, he has two knockout wins over Joshua Van and Lone’er Kavanagh so he is clearly capable.
Johnson lands 4.68 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.94 in return, and defends strikes at 56 percent. I have always liked his striking and he has a ton of experience and composure. He has decent boxing and can mix in kicks. He consistently lands volume and has mild to moderate power as well.
I will say that even though Johnson has some KO wins, I don’t think his actual strikes on a strike per strike basis land all that hard. We have seen him land volume but his opponents land a little harder which has hurt him on the scorecards, including against Ramazan Temirov.
Johnson doesn’t wrestle much offensively and lands 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. He defends takedowns at a decent 66 percent. Although he can be taken down a bit, he does have some decent get ups and can scramble.
Johnson is simply a solid UFC veteran who can compete with most in this division. He also has good cardio.
Johnson will be taking on Bruno Silva. Silva is generally a striker who will also mix in some takedowns.
Silva is an okay striker, but he doesn’t have the best volume either. He lands 3.82 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.55 in return. He defends strikes at 52 percent. He is an okay striker with some decent hands and moderate power. I still don’t totally love his output but I do think he hits kind of hard. I just consider Silva serviceable on the feet. He is nothing great but is alright and semi-dangerous. He will struggle winning rounds against any volume strikers but can compete by landing effectively.
As a grappler, Silva is decent. He lands 2.30 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 8 takedowns per fight. He actually landed 3 takedowns on Dvorak and 4 on Tagir Ulanbekov. So he is capable of landing takedowns in this division.
Silva also is generally durable. He has been knocked out twice but both were in the third round to Joshua Van and Manel Kape, who more so just knocked him out from accumulation.
As far as this matchup goes, I think this is very competitive. On the feet, where the fight will likely mostly take place, I think this is close. I favor Johnson on volume and it is why I will be picking him to win. However, Silva may land a bit harder from a strike per strike basis which could bring rounds to a competitive state. Either guy is likely capable of knocking the other out and both have been knocked out recently. However, I consider both guys pretty tough.
I actually think Silva is more likely to land takedowns. I could see him landing a takedown and consolidating mild top time to swing a round. However, I don’t think he will easily outwrestle Johnson or hold him down, and my guess is Silva will need some striking success to win.
I will go with Johnson as he has been the more consistent volume striker, but I honestly expect this to be a close 29-28 type of fight.
—
On DraftKings, I think you’re mostly hoping for a finish on either side.
Johnson is priced up to 8.7k and will be overpriced based on his betting odds, which are falling to the -160 range. So he’s actually one of the thinnest favorites on the slate.
I generally agree with Tim’s analysis on this matchup but I think I favor Johnson a little more on the feet. He’s a lot bigger, five inches taller with a five-inch reach advantage. His distance metrics are way better too, where he has a +0.5 distance differential compared to -1.72 for Silva.
Silva’s knockdown success has come against MUCH weaker competition though, like Park, JP Buys, Cody Durden, etc. I like Johnson to land the bigger shots of the two personally though there’s always variance in striking exchanges and Johnson was just TKOd.
I also think Silva can have some mild grappling success, but it probably won’t be the determining factor of who wins.
Johnson at 8.7k will need a knockout to be optimal. He won’t wrestle much and volume shouldn’t matter either. It’s tough to rely on that early KO, especially at this price tag with his odds falling.
Bruno Silva has given up 95 points on average to opponents when he loses, which is a lot, but I guess that’s skewed a bit from Van scoring 131.
Either way, Johnson should just be a contrarian play this week. With so many fights on this slate and better targets in this range, he’s hard to play often. I think he’s an acceptable pivot and I think he has some KO equity, but he’s only +265 to win ITD and is just not a priority.
Silva is priced at 7.5k and is rating out as the value play. Coming off a 109 point DK win, while Johnson is coming off the TKO loss, he may get some love this week.
I definitely would not be betting on Silva to win by TKO, and that’s kind of the problem. I like Silva more when he can grapple dominate, and I have less faith in that here. I also generally just think the fight may be competitive which does give Silva win equity but also less of a ceiling.
Silva has a slightly better ITD line than Johnson at +270 which is fine, and his striking metrics are still mediocre. Prior to the Perez loss, Johnson gave up 58, 72 and 69 DK points in a few of his decision losses. I think that’s a more likely score than 120+.
I view Silva as a fine secondary option at this price tag. He’s cheap enough that win equity matters, and he at least has some case for grappling or a knockout. I tend to lean against playing him heavily though as there’s so many live underdogs and some others who I think have a better chance to flash a ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Johnson by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders
Fight Odds: Tavares -123, Anders +103
Odds to end ITD: +115
DraftKings Salaries: Tavares 8.3k, Anders 7.9k
Weight Class: 185
We bid farewell to Eryk Anders who will most likely be retiring win or lose after this matchup with Brad Tavares, assuming the UFC doesn’t decide to re-sign him. Quite frankly, I’d hope the same for Tavares.
I wrote earlier in the week that putting this matchup in the middle of the event is the equivalent to finding a hair in your food. I don’t enjoy having to write it up and I’m petrified about how it may impact the fantasy slate.
Anders has been competing in the UFC since 2017, where he’s had ups and downs but actually fought in a couple of main events back in the day against Lyoto Machida and Thiago Santos.
Anders is somewhat well-rounded. He’s a great athlete, and won the NCAA Championship in football at Alabama in 2009 before transitioning to MMA.
Anders carries some power but he’s not a super effective striker. He lands 3.51 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 4.09 per minute, with a 50 percent defensive rate. He’s picked up a few knockouts along the way but isn’t a particularly trustworthy power source. He has a ground-and-pound TKO win over Chris Weidman in 2024 and previously knocked out Kyle Daukaus in 2022.
You’re just not getting a ton of volume from him over three rounds, but hopefully in the 60 strike range.
What’s more concerning is that he’s been knocked down in four consecutive fights. He survived the first three, and actually won two of those fights, but most recently, he was KOd by Christian Leroy Duncan last August. Duncan is a legit striker and opponent, though getting hurt by Weidman and Jamie Pickett is concerning.
Anders can also grapple, and is a BJJ black belt. Anders lands 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and has occasional ground success. He took Pickett down five times, and took JunYong Park down three times in 2022.
Anders has no wins by submission though so his best bet is to lay on weaker opponents or land some ground-and-pound.
Anders is simply a middle of the road talent. He has some athleticism and physicality, and he can strike and grapple. He’s just not super effective anywhere, he has recent durability questions, and typically retirement fights aren’t the most bullish indicators of a fighter’s performance
Anders will be taking on Brad Tavares who has also overstayed his welcome in the UFC. He debuted in 2010 and has been a solid veteran presence for many years, but Tavares has now won two of his last seven fights and his durability is fading as well.
Tavares is well-rounded and excels with his hands. He’s a decent boxer and lands 3.42 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 3.36 per minute, with a 54 percent defensive rate.
Tavares has some power, but he is mostly known for failing to achieve any knockouts. In 27 UFC fights, Tavares has landed four knockdowns, and he’s only earned two TKOs.
Tavares honestly excels more as an anti-grappler, where he’s beaten a lot of strong wrestling opponents who could not take him down and control him. Tavares doesn’t wrestle much offensively, only landing 0.73 takedowns per 15 minutes but he does defend at 81 percent which is strong.
Essentially, the most likely outcome in any random Tavares match is a competitive, striking based decision. He’s going to land 50 strikes, defend some takedowns, win a round and lose a round.
Tavares has now been knocked out in three of his last six fights, and most recently, he was finished by Robert Bryczek which is pretty concerning. Gregory Rodrigues TKOd him late which isn’t as big of a deal.
Tavares is also 38. His skills won’t get any better. His durability will get worse. He can still win some boxing rounds but I think it’s time for him to move on.
There’s no reason to be excited for or confident in this matchup, with the age and durability questions on both sides.
I don’t think Anders is going to have a ton of success wrestling, as Tavares is pretty strong at neutralizing opposing wrestlers. Tavares isn’t likely to land more than a takedown of his own.
On the feet, both men can win. Both men can be hurt. Of the two, Anders historically has more power and knockout upside, but Tavares is probably the more skilled boxer of the two.
I don’t know what outcome to pick here but I think Tavares by decision is pretty fair. Anders by TKO or decision is pretty fair. I kind of want to take Anders just because Tavares did not like the power shots from Bryczek in that last fight, however it was Anders who was the one actually KOd.
—
On DraftKings, this is a mid-range fight that I wish I could avoid, but it’s hard to be sure given the status of both men.
Tavares is priced at 8.3k and has to be a contrarian option. Tavares historically has some of the lowest scores in wins, and he never achieves any upside. He has won a lot of times and is only averaging 69.5 DK points in wins. Tavares has only scored 100 DK points ONE TIME in 27 tries, which came in 2011. He has not scored more than 82 DK points since 2013.
Now he’s getting a guy who’s been knocked down four times in a row. Tavares is still only +265 to win ITD but it’s not the worst line in the world. I honestly can’t imagine clicking his name still.
We’ve seen super low ownerships on Tavares historically because he never scores well, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sub 10 percent owned this week. ITD odds and sims will tell you to roster him above that mark most likely but I don’t think it’s an awful idea to fade him and just hope he doesn’t win ITD.
Either way, Tavares is an ultra boom or bust and likely very contrarian target, who you can eat a dose of if you want to be different and play into the narratives.
Anders is my preferred target of the two at 7.9k.
I’m actually surprised his ITD line is worse at +325, and I think he has similar or greater finishing equity to Tavares.
Anders actually averages 95.6 DK points per win, and he’s scored 114, 94 and 118 DK points in his last three wins. I’m not sure he’s going to reach those ceilings but he’s the type I’d rather bet on for upside of the two.
I think Anders falls closer to the secondary category of the two, because he actually has more of a boom profile to his game and if he wins, a RD 1 TKO is on the table. I’m still not sure I’m willing to bet a lot on the outcome.
He’s not even favored and anything other than an early TKO probably doesn’t get the job done. However I’m also expecting him to be pretty low owned, and consider him more of a reasonable pivot/upside target within this range.
This is a super gross fight. I wish I didn’t have to think about it but here we are. It’s probably worth playing a bit of, with a larger portfolio, but I can understand coming in super light with a small portfolio and praying it extends.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Anders by TKO, RD 2 (Confidence=Low)
Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Fight Odds: Orolbai -300, Curtis +250
Odds to end ITD: +105
DraftKings Salaries: Orolbai 9.1k, Curtis 7.1k
Weight Class: 170
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have a banger here between Myktybek Orolbai and Chris Curtis.
Holding a professional record of 15-1-1, Orolbai fights out of Kyrgyzstan. He fought in LFA pre-UFC and now holds a 4-1 record, earning some decent wins against Uros Medic and Elves Brener. He did lose to Mateusz Rebecki in a back and forth affair. However, he knocked out Jack Hermansson recently to bounce back.
Orolbai is mostly a wrestle-boxer. I consider his wrestling pretty decent honestly. He has a decent double leg, and he can float on top and advance position. I have also seen him wrestle for 15 minutes without slowing down all that badly. I personally do not think his wrestling is elite. However, I do think he can wreck weak grapplers on the mat.
Furthermore, Orolbai can box a bit. He manages distance okay and he has some good straight punches. I also think he has power and is a pretty good athlete. He is physical as well. He can hurt guys at this level.
I still just dislike Orolbai’s defense on the feet though. He dominated Musayev and Medic on the mat so he faced no resistance from them.
He wasn’t easily able to dispose of Rebecki and Brener on the mat and it turned into a sloppy, back and forth war on the feet at times. I just think Orolbai is vulnerable to lose when he can’t dominate on the mat. I do not think he is a quitter or a front runner or anything like that. He will try to stay tough and win a war if he needs to. However, I don’t think his striking is really good enough to easily take care of guys he can’t outwrestle. Brener and Rebecki aren’t even very skilled or good strikers, and he went life and death with both of them.
Orolbai’s will be taking on Chris Curtis. I mostly consider Curtis a boxer. He has some decent hands, and I do respect his power. He has won by knockout several times in the UFC and knocked out Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, and Joaquin Buckley. He is also a tough guy and has only been knocked out twice in his career, with the most recent being to Roman Kopylov in his last loss.
I still don’t love Curtis’ defense though. He lands 5.98 significant strikes per minute which is good but he absorbs 6.19 and only defends strikes at 54 percent. He can be hit, especially if he isn’t in inside range. I do respect his hands and boxing skill in the pocket and in close range but good distance controllers can get ahead on the numbers against him especially if they fight at a longer range. Curtis also just gets hit a lot so he is going to need knockouts to win clearly. Curtis is tough though, and skilled and dangerous enough on the feet to compete against a lot of guys.
Curtis doesn’t offensively grapple all that much. He hasn’t even attempted a takedown in the UFC. I consider his first layer TDD pretty good, and he currently defends takedowns at 82 percent.
As far as this matchup goes, I do think Orolbai has more paths to victory with the takedowns. I think he can likely land takedowns here and have some stretches of top position which could swing a round or so in his favor.
However, I sort of am leaning against Orolbai dominating easily on the mat. I don’t think Orolbai is just going to land a takedown and hold Curtis down for the entire round. I think Curtis will stop a takedown here and there and work up here and there.
If that happens, and I kind of expect it to, this could turn into an absolute mess. On the feet, both of these guys could land bombs and I think Orolbai can have striking success early. However, I just also think Orolbai gets a bit tired and sloppy and hittable in extended striking affairs. Curtis is also just more comfortable on the feet, and I could see this getting sketchy.
I still think Orolbai can hurt Curtis and have striking success of his own. Paired with the takedowns, he probably should win this fight. However, I have a feeling this is going to be sketchy and back and forth. This one could get wild.
—
On DraftKings, Orolbai will certainly be worth consideration at 9.1k.
I tried to fade him in his last fight against Hermansson and got burned for it. Unfortunately I think that outcome is only going to add to his hype, and more specifically, his box scores. Orolbai is averaging 113 DK points per win and he’s never scored less than 106.
I have targeted Orolbai in past matchups though, and his style is well suited for DraftKings. He’s fairly aggressive, can grapple and can earn finishes, and his DK box scores reflect that.
Still, I think he’s probably due for some regression. He has 7 takedowns in a 2nd round sub, he has 5 takedowns plus a knockdown in a decision, and these kinds of outcomes are not necessarily a fair average expectation.
Against Curtis, I still do think Orolbai can reach a ceiling but I’m not sold on it. Curtis gave up 119 to Allen but that came over five rounds. He gave up 114 to Kopylov but that was with 130 sig. strikes, a knockdown and a finish.
Curtis can give up takedowns but he doesn’t easily get dominated on the mat, and Orolbai isn’t some high-level submission grappler to instantly finish him. I’m also not even sure Orolbai would be the outright favorite on the feet. So this could definitely get wonky.
At 9.1k, Orolbai is hard to pass up due to his historic ceiling, and his odds to win are growing. He’s -300 now but only +175 to win ITD. I think he will put up a strong score in a win, that will come in part from takedowns, but I do not think he’s a lock to hit another ceiling outcome.
Perhaps that’s still worth it at the price. If you get 90-100 points, that will give you a shot to compete. I wouldn’t count on 110+ and if he ends up chalk, just due to the high number of fights on the slate, I don’t mind coming in a bit underweight.
The reality is this price range is very difficult to parse and I truly don’t think there are many safe options. If you’re looking for one, it doesn’t exist. Orolbai at least carries historic upside so it’s fine to land on him, but the fight is projected to go the distance and I think I may personally rather target more likely finishers nearby.
Curtis is priced at 7.1k and is in play, though I think many fighters in this range are viable.
Curtis is not ranked at the top of my list honestly, even though I can see a path to victory for him. He just needs to scramble with Orolbai early, box and likely win rounds two and three, or perhaps hit a random knockout.
He just is on the wrong end of the wrestling spectrum here and he won’t wrestle offensively. I don’t think he’ll land some crazy amount of strikes. He probably needs a knockout to hit a ceiling and that’s a tough outcome to bet on.
Curtis is +425 to win ITD and just scored 57 points in his last decision win. I would think his upside is higher in this matchup and may be more tied to a knockout, but again it’s hard to rely on that outcome.
I think Curtis is viable and at least has a path to victory. Orolbai has been shaky in some striking exchanges and was dropped by Rebeki. I think I feel safer with a few other options in this same price range though and so it will be hard to invest too much into Curtis. He’s an acceptable salary saver and low end target but likely very boom/bust.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Orolbai by Decision (Confidence=Medium)
Bolaji Oki vs. Manoel Sousa
Fight Odds: Sousa -270, Oki +230
Odds to end ITD: -160
DraftKings Salaries: Sousa 9.4k, Oki 6.8k
Weight Class: 155
*Matchup analysis written by Technical Tim
We have two lightweights here in Bolaji Oki and Manoel Sousa that are trying to prove they belong in this division,
Bolaji Oki, the 29-year-old Belgian is carrying a 9-2-0 record and is a damaged based fighter. He lost his most recent fight to Mason Jones as he was melted in an extended fight.
He isn’t bad on the feet and he landed 136 significant strikes in a decision win against Michael Aswell which was good to see. However, his defensive metrics are a red flag; he absorbs over five significant strikes per minute, showing a willingness to trade that often leads to him being tagged cleanly.
The biggest knock on Oki remains his durability and gas tank; he tends to look like a world-beater in the first seven minutes but has shown a tendency to fade significantly if he can’t find the early exit.
Oki can also be grappled a bit. He is physical and can land takedowns here and there but he isn’t a great wrestler and can be wrestled himself, and he has been finished on the mat a couple times.
Overall, Oki is kind of a freestyle fighter who is okay but not great and I question his ability in extended fights a bit.
Oki will be facing Manoel Sousa, a 27-year-old Brazilian with an 11-1-0 record who is making his UFC debut. Sousa is a very physical guy. I don’t think he is particularly great but he is almost an even more physical and roided version of Oki, except with a better gas tank.
Sousa booked his ticket to the UFC by winning with a 3rd round KO against a good wrestler. He was outgrappled badly in rounds 1 and 2 which wasn’t a great look. However, Sousa is tough and physical and he just kept defending, and eventually his gas tank and physicality wore out his opponent.
I think Sousa is just super physical. On the feet, he isn’t all technical but he is physical and can land inside strikes and power shots, and can work the body and just beat up his opponents. He isn’t the best wrestler but again, he can survive and defend to a degree. He then can land takedowns himself and wear down his opponents.
As far as this matchup goes, the pick is Manoel Sousa. I don’t think Oki is majorly outskilled, and I honestly expect Oki to do fine for a bit. Both guys could probably have a degree of grappling success as I don’t love either guy’s defensive grappling.
However, I just think Sousa is a more physical version of Sousa with higher damage upside. I also just trust Sousa’s gas tank more and I easily could see Oki getting worn down and finished in the 2nd or 3rd round.
So my pick is Sousa. I still am kind of skeptical of him. I don’t think he is that great, but Oki is just getting finished often lately and tends to melt.
—
On DraftKings, both sides are viable with the matchup expected to end inside the distance.
I’m honestly not that high on Sousa in general and he kind of rates out as a fade longterm. He’s not a consistent minute winner on the feet and I don’t love how he lunges into hooks. I think he’s a solid grappler but he leans too heavily on strength based submissions and is not a strong control fighter.
You don’t have to look much further than his DWCS fight where he was likely down two rounds heading into the third to see his limitations, granted, he came back well and scored the finish there.
I’m not super high on Oki but I definitely think he can win this fight and I may pick him to win. It’s just that he can also lose, which wouldn’t shock me either.
Sousa is priced up to 9.4k and doesn’t feel safe, although he may still have upside.
I think his biggest advantage is on the ground where he’s the superior submission grappler. I just don’t know if he can wrestle at a high rate. I also think he has some knockout equity but he’s smaller than Oki and I prefer Oki at range.
You need an early finish no matter which way you slice this. I do think Sousa is dangerous, he carries power and he has some submission equity. Buying in at 9.4k does not excite me.
Sousa is +105 to win ITD which is fine. I don’t think he’ll be extremely popular with two more trustworthy fighters above him, and a ton of options below him as well. I don’t want to dismiss his finishing equity, but I don’t view him as an incredible prospect and I’m simply not confident he secures an early finish here. I honestly don’t expect to end up with too much exposure at this price tag but I’d still label him a viable secondary target.
Oki at 6.8k is one of many live underdogs on this slate, and one of many viable cheap options.
My primary concern would be that I don’t think Oki finishes this fight at a high rate. He couldn’t finish Timmy Cuamba or Michael Aswell and even if he outstrikes Sousa, I lean toward it being an extended fight.
He still does carry power. He’s +400 to win ITD. He is bigger than Sousa. And he might even have mild wrestling equity. Plus, he’s just very cheap.
I personally think this upper 6k range and lower 7k range is quite live for wins, and Oki is one of those targets who wouldn’t surprise me to see him get his hand raised. I’m not dying to make a major investment and I have some questions about his pure ceiling without a finish.
However, if you need salary relief, I think Oki is a fine low-end target and I would like a sprinkle of him at least.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Oki by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa
Fight Odds: Sosa -240, Lacerda +205
Odds to end ITD: -150
DraftKings Salaries: Sosa 8.9k, Lacerda 7.3k
Weight Class: 135
Newly minted DWCS contract winner, Hecher Sosa will take on Luan Lacerda this weekend.
Sosa is 14-1 professionally at age 30, earning six wins by knockout and three by submission. He fights out of Spain and was a champion in some Spanish regional organization.
Sousa is pretty well-rounded and I think he can be successful at the UFC level, but I don’t believe he has an elite ceiling.
Sosa is a fairly decent striker and I’d label him a capable round winner. He’s not physical enough to be a true knockout threat, and a lot of his competition has been mediocre. However, he can box and evade, and he can attack with a variety of shots including knees which he loves.
Sosa will throw jabs to the body, he’ll throw leg kicks, and he won’t try to brawl, which is a style that sets up pretty well to win rounds. He does leave his chin a little high and his only pro loss was a devastating KO in 2022. He can probably be hurt. But he seems to be in control of most striking rounds.
Sosa is also a Spanish grappling champion and a brown belt in jiu-jitsu. We saw him mostly implement his grappling game on DWCS where he landed four takedowns and earned nearly 11 minutes of control. He was able to take the back late and nearly score a RNC.
Sosa definitely is not an elite wrestler, but he seems capable. His body lock takedowns are solid and his submission grappling is fine. I don’t view him as a major submission threat. I also don’t think he will easily outwrestle good competition, largely due to his lack of physicality.
However, it’s good that he’s used a wrestling path and it adds to my analysis that he’s a potentially solid round winner with multiple paths. I still think his level of competition has been pretty horrendous and I don’t think he matches up well athletically to the top of the division.
Luan Lacerda is 13-3 professionally at age 33, and he’s earned 11 wins by submission with two by decision.
Lacerda came from LFA in 2022, and has picked up two losses with one win thus far in the UFC.
To be fair, Lacerda has lost to Cody Stamann and Da’Mon Blackshear who are two legit opponents with a lot of experience. His win was his most recent bout against Saimon Oliveira who is on the opposite end of the spectrum.
As expected with his high submission total, Lacerda excels as a grappler and his biggest threat is the threat of the submission. He trains with the Nova Uniao camp and is a 3rd degree black belt under Andre Pederneiras.
Lacerda is fully capable of smashing weaker grapplers on the mat, but his wrestling is not necessarily a strong suit, which is fairly typical for this style of grappler. With that said, he can’t always implement his ideal game plan and therefore, fights can be an uphill battle.
I do actually think his wrestling is OK though. It is not horrendous, and he has taken down both Stamann and Blackshear which is a feather in his cap. He wasn’t able to earn extended control but it at least gives him a chance.
Most recently, Lacerda took Oliveira down twice and had him in deep trouble from the back. He actually was reversed a couple of times and eventually won after a reversal, with an armbar from his back in round two.
While it’s a little bit silly, it does show he’s a threat on the mat.
Lacerda has defended takedowns at 66 percent and his defensive wrestling isn’t a strong suit either. But he doesn’t have a problem fighting from his back so he may not need to or want to fully stuff takedowns. He did get positionally TKOd by Blackshear chasing the legs.
On the feet, Lacerda is capable but it’s not an ideal path to victory. What catches my eye most is that he stands a little too still. He can throw hard singular kicks, and he has some power in his hands, but he’s not able to move well enough or throw enough volume to get ahead of opponents.
He ultimately has no wins by TKO, though his only TKO loss was on the mat. I thought he fared well against Stamann and did land 80 sig strikes, but also gave up 103 in that matchup.
This is a fine test for Sosa in his UFC debut and I don’t think it’s a runaway smash spot.
I first have to acknowledge that while Sosa is a Spanish grappling champ and just wrestled his way to a win on DWCS, Lacerda is better than him there on paper. At least, Lacerda is a more dangerous and experienced submission grappler, and he’s fought much better competition.
I think Sosa can probably land takedowns but I’m not sure that easily leads to domination on the mat, and it could get him in trouble. Lacerda has lost one time by sub but that was in 2014.
Conversely, Lacerda might be able to threaten Sosa if he lands a takedown. He has back taking upside or he can maybe flash an armbar from his back. I tend to think fighters at this level should just neutralize each other, but Lacerda can win grappling exchanges here.
On the feet, I favor Sosa who I think is far more evasive. Lacerda still showed well against Stamann and landing 80 sig strikes is enough to win rounds. He could make rounds competitive or do some damage.
I think Sosa is just more active on the feet and will get hit less. He can attack multiple levels and he seems like a smart striker, so I’d lean toward him edging Lacerda out there.
I ultimately side with Sosa as the better round winner, to find a way to win rounds. He can win on the feet, he could win via takedowns. He may also have some finishing equity though it’s hard to pinpoint.
Lacerda can have grappling success if he lands takedowns which I would not rule out. Otherwise I’d expect him to be more moments based, which still gives him hope but it’s not enough for me to pick him outright.
—
On DraftKings, Sosa is priced up to 8.9k and I think he probably needs a finish to contend for the optimal.
Sosa hasn’t been a high volume wrestler in the majority of his fights on the regionals, and I’m definitely not sold he pushes a wrestling pace here. Even if he did, Lacerda is far better on the mat than his last opponent.
Sosa did score 101 DK points in that DWCS matchup so replicating it gives him fantasy upside. He earned nearly 11 minutes of control though and landed 124 non-sig strikes, so I don’t think matching those numbers is the most likely outcome.
If the fight plays out on the feet, Sosa can still land fair volume but he’d need a knockout and I’m simply worried Lacerda’s style will prevent Sosa from full domination anywhere, especially on the mat.
Sosa is +105 to win ITD which does give him finishing equity and at least puts him in play at 8.9k. I think he’s a viable secondary price option when you can’t afford to pay up further.
I’m worried enough about the fight extending and Sosa choosing to strike that I don’t think I can outright prioritize him here, but he does have options, and ways to finish. It’s far from a clear smash spot but mixing some Sosa into constructions is perfectly reasonable.
Lacerda is priced at 7.3k and is a mediocre salary saving target.
He just doesn’t rate out phenomenally anywhere, so you’re either hoping for a random submission win, or for him to pursue wrestling heavily and outperform expectation on the control end.
I do actually think Lacerda can land 1-2 takedowns, but without a submission, I’m unsure it matters. I don’t want to bet a ton on fighters with negative differentials.
Lacerda is skilled enough on the mat to at least give him a chance, and he’s +385 to win ITD which is OK for the price tag. He’s coming off a 112 point win which shows his upside.
There are a lot of options this week, and Lacerda simply is not a standout. If you need to save salary, I think he is viable as a low-end option for finishing/grappling equity, but I don’t expect to take a real stand with him against the field.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Sosa by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)
Bia Mesquita vs. Montse Rendon
Fight Odds: Mesquita -800, Rendon +575
Odds to end ITD: -250
DraftKings Salaries: Mesquita 9.5k, Rendon 6.7k
Weight Class: 135
Top grappling prospect Bia Mesquita looks to build off her strong UFC debut win with a matchup against Montse Rendon.
As a submission grappling fan, I was very excited to see the debut of Bia Mesquita against Irina Alekseeva last October.
Mesquita is a super credentialed BJJ player and has a laundry list of accomplishments in the BJJ world, including becoming a 6x IBJJF World Champion, a No-Gi World Champion and an ADCC World Champion.
Even as recently as 2024, Mesquita was having success at ADCC which is the highest level of submission grappling, and she was getting 2nd and 3rd place results. She’s as legit as they come from the BJJ world, and that specialty is what will carry her as a professional fighter.
As a BJJ specialist, her game is what you might expect. She wants to close the distance, take you down, take your back and choke you out. She largely succeeded at doing so on the regionals, earning a 5-0 record, with essentially all of her wins coming via that method. There’s a TKO via ground strikes mixed in there too, along with a DQ win.
In her debut, we mostly saw the upside for Mesquita, who was able to take Alekseeva down early, mount her, and beat the crap out of her with elbows. The fight was allowed to start round two, where Mesquita landed another takedown, quickly took the back and sunk in the RNC.
It was a super impressive performance but that’s mostly how I expect fights to look when she wins. My concern is when opponents can shut down the wrestling and grappling game, as Mesquita isn’t nearly as strong on the feet.
Mesquita doesn’t rate out as a particularly good striker and she may be a liability on the feet. I wouldn’t want her to strike for long periods of time and I would guess she’d lose to most UFC level strikers.
Her wrestling is only OK. So it’s the transitional game that could really make or break her moving forward. She’s certainly good enough to land the occasional takedown, but is she a monster wrestler? Eh, I wouldn’t say so.
But she is excellent at transitioning to the back, and can even do so standing. She’ll lock up a body triangle and it’s mostly over from there. She may only need one takedown to win the fight.
I don’t think Mesquita is a future champion because she’s still semi one-dimensional, but her grappling is legit and she can definitely beat the mid and lower tiers of the division there. Training at American Top Team is a bonus and hopefully we continue to see developments in her game.
Rendon is somehow 2-1 in the UFC with wins over low-level competition in Alice Pereira and Tamires Vidal. She lost a decision to Daria Zhelezniakova in the interim.
Rendon has the physical profile of someone who could win at the UFC level, but I have historically been low on the skills she brings to the Octagon.
She throws a basic 1-2 and stands too far out of range, so she’s constantly missing on her strikes. In her UFC debut, she only landed strikes at a 37% rate, meaning two of every three strikes she attempted were hitting air. She then got outlanded 51-25 at distance by Zhelezniakova, and most recently was able to edge out a split 43-35 over Pereira.
I don’t think Rendon has a ton of power compared to other legit strikers in the weight class, and it stems from poor technique. Her punches just don’t have pop on them, and they aren’t sharp. Still, spamming 1-2s is one way to get the judges attention and it’s possible she can win fights at the lowest levels with some volume.
Rendon also comes from a grappling background where she is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and that’s one of her biggest strengths. She competes in BJJ and is competent as a sub grappler.
However, she is not a strong wrestler. I’ve seen some scattered takedown attempts on the regionals with mixed success against poor competition, but I really do not think she’ll have an easy time getting opponents down.
In her debut, she landed three takedowns on five attempts, but every successful takedown was from a caught kick, which is different from driving in on a double leg. Against Zhelezniakova, Rendon looked better, and was able to use her physicality to land another three takedowns, earning 5 minutes 24 seconds of control.
She’ll rush into the clinch and get the body lock, but she can’t easily lift her opponents or drag them down. Rendon seems like a decent athlete but she just doesn’t have explosive physical strength, unfortunately. She went 0 for 5 on takedowns against Pereira.
Obviously Mesquita is a much higher rated prospect than Rendon, and the primary question will be whether Rendon has any hope of stopping her grappling game. We don’t have a large sample of Rendon defending takedowns, but she has defended all six takedowns against her thus far.
On the regional scene, Rendon did give up a takedown against Zamora in the third round, and was mounted, and nearly finished with a RNC. That was in 2022 but it’s a major red flag.
What my expectation is now is that if Mesquita gets on top, she’ll likely smash. I don’t think Rendon can hang with her, and I think she’ll give up her back and get choked out. Or it will lead to a dominant round for Mesquita at least.
I am not 100 percent sure that Mesquita can land takedowns easily, or as easily as she did against Alekseeva. Rendon has some athleticism in her game and has looked OK stuffing takedowns in the UFC. She gave up the takedown easily against Zamora though.
I think it’s fair to bet on Mesquita being able to land takedowns and transition/scramble her way to a dominant position. It’s not a complete lock though.
If Rendon can stuff takedowns, maybe she can just win the fight. I’m still not high on her striking but she’s at least gone the distance three times in the UFC now, and may be improving. I don’t know if Mesquita offers much standing and wouldn’t bet on her to win striking exchanges.
I don’t think Rendon can land takedowns here but even if she could, that would probably play into Mesquita’s game. I’d be more worried if Mesquita was gassed out, where any outcome could then come into play.
The most likely outcome here I think is Mesquita finding her way on top after a couple of minutes, and then just finishing the fight. And if she can land one takedown, she can probably land multiple.
My only hesitation is just that if Mesquita is not on top, in control, her game could fall apart. Rendon still doesn’t offer a lot of threat in any area of the game but perhaps it’s enough to be competitive or win rounds if Mesquita is failing to wrestle. I’ll still take Mesquita somewhat comfortably to win with an early ground finish.
—
On DratKings, Mesquita is going to rate out as a fairly strong option near the top at 9.5k.
There are a lot of total fights on this card and so no one option is a must. Mesquita also has a somewhat boom/bust grappling style that means she needs to smash to hit, and if not she’ll just fail.
We saw a mix of that in her debut, which did not ultimately result in a RD 1 finish, but it could have. And with the RD 2 finish, Mesquita still scored 108 DK points.
What really benefited her in that debut was landing 34 ground strikes in the first round. She also got on top early which meant nearly four minutes of control. If she simply lands one takedown, takes the back and sinks in a RNC, that’s closer to 95-100 than it is to 110.
So that’s the fear really. If Mesquita isn’t throwing a ton of ground-and-pound, she’s probably not optimal. If she is, she has a ceiling.
I’m perfectly fine playing Mesquita this week but I do not consider her anything close to an optimal guarantee. She rates out as a pretty safe option, with upside, and she’ll carry a very strong floor in any kind of win given her style. She is -215 to win ITD but the fight is still -185 to go Over 1.5 RDs.
Despite me not being extremely high on Vallejos at cost, if you can pay up to 9.6k, I don’t think Mesquita is an obvious choice over Vallejos at that point. Both have paths to 100-110 and both could slightly underperform in the 90s. Mesquita actually has the best ITD line on this entire slate though.
I think ultimately, I do like Mesquita quite a bit given her floor/ceiling and grappling style, and I do want exposure this week. I’m just struggling to label her as a clear standout within this top tier, among other options who have finishing equity as well.
Rendon is priced at 6.7k and doesn’t interest me much.
What you could look to is this being a binary matchup, and if Mesquita can’t land early TDs, maybe she just loses. Maybe she gets hurt or gassed or something. I don’t necessarily want to bet on that and I’m not excited to bet on it with Rendon.
Rendon doesn’t produce a lot of points per minute and she’s among the lowest on the slate in DK points per 5 min at 13.3. Even if she wins by decision it’s probably not a high scoring one. Her last decision win scored 54 DK points, and she is +900 to win ITD here.
She’ll probably be sub 10 percent owned publicly and at least has a shot to win if Mesquita fails to grapple and gasses out, but I can’t really justify much exposure for her regardless. She’s only a low-end, dart throw type of play with questionable upside and I likely won’t be invested with a smaller portfolio.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Mesquita by Armbar, RD 1 (Confidence=Medium-High)
Elijah Smith vs. SuYoung You
Fight Odds: Smith -225, You +190
Odds to end ITD: +180
DraftKings Salaries: Smith 8.5k, You 7.7k
Weight Class: 135
I consider Elijah Smith and SuYoung You to be a couple of solid prospects in the bantamweight division, and I think this is pretty solid matchmaking to pair them up.
Smith is 9-1 professionally at age 23, and he’s earned five wins by knockout and one by submission. He won a contract on DWCS with a hard fought decision over Aaron Tau in 2024, and followed it up with a competitive win over Vince Morales in his UFC debut.
Most recently, Smith is coming off a highlight reel KO via slam against Toshiomi Kazama.
As with all young fighters, Smith still has a lot of developing to do before he hits his prime, but he comes from a wrestling base and is a pretty solid athlete. I think his takedowns are the best part of his game, and he’s landed 5 and 3 takedowns in each of his two tracked decisions.
Given how fast and explosive Smith can be driving into shots, I think he can continue to land takedowns at this level. He also has a bit of variety to his game and we’ve seen him hit throws and trips, as well as standard doubles.
Smith is a BJJ purple belt but I don’t consider him a strong submission grappler. He likes to transition to the back but we’ve seen him fall off there before and get outscrambled. He had a nice front headlock attack on DWCS but ultimately he only has one pro win by submission which is telling.
Smith is fully capable of dominating weak grapplers but I don’t think he easily advances position and submits strong opposition.
Smith can also be active with ground-and-pound at times, and we saw some good moments from him against Kazama in the last matchup where he landed 36 ground strikes in that first round. Again, it still relates to his level of competition.
On the feet, Smith is adequate but not someone I particularly trust to win extended striking exchanges. He has some speed and power in his hands and is willing to throw, but he’s not super defensively sound.
He’s also been a bit of a head hunter with 82 percent of his strikes going to the head. He can definitely do some damage when he lands but I don’t think he has a ton of depth to his game.
One other issue to note is that we’ve seen Smith slow down pretty badly in third rounds, both against Tau and Morales. He lost round three to Tau and gave up 56 sig strikes, and it seems clear that given his explosive nature, more of his success will come early in fights.
SuYoung You is 16-3 professionally at age 30, and he’s earned three wins by knockout and eight by submission.
You has fought all over the world and was a fighter we had targeted coming into the UFC as a potentially underrated prospect. He won the Road to UFC title in 2024 and has followed it up with two more UFC wins, including a recent decision over Xiao Long.
You comes from a grappling background and has really strong wrestling, along with a black belt in BJJ. He is not the biggest or most physical athlete and that will limit his upside, but You can be an effective offensive and defensive wrestler in this division.
In five tracked fights, You is landing 3.80 takedowns per 15 minutes, topping out at eight landed in his RTUFC semifinal matchup. He also landed five takedowns against AJ Cunningham in 2025.
You has a pretty strong transitional game on the mat and he can scramble to the back well where he’s a threat to win by RNC. He also has a nice arm-triangle from top position.
You can be taken down, but he’s been very tough to hold down historically. Luke noted in the last matchup breakdown that “no opponent’s really been able to do anything meaningful to him on the ground – his last loss is officially via GNP but that was after he got hurt on the feet.”
You was taken down once in three of his five tracked fights, and he can lie on his back for a short period of time. He is typically safe to scramble back up to his feet and even with a strong grappler on top of him, isn’t in extreme danger of being dominated.
On the feet, You is going to rate out as a neutralizer and round winner. He is landing 2.28 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 1.96 per minute with a 70 percent striking defense.
Not only does You’s ability to limit strikes against him stand out, but his head strike defense stands out in particular. It’s not that you cannot hit him, but you are not likely to land head strikes at a high volume because he doesn’t engage in a way to make himself vulnerable. We added head/body/leg strike defense numbers to MMA Labs this week and You has a 73.7 percent head strike defense rate, which is pretty incredible.
Offensively he doesn’t carry a ton of power. He’s not going to land tons of volume but can fall in the 45-60 strike range over 15 minutes. He can lose optics because of it. But You will likely keep rounds close, and mitigate less technical strikers where some additional wrestling exchanges will continue to lead him to victory.
As far as this matchup, I expect it to be competitive. Smith is the bigger fighter and the better athlete on paper, and he’ll be a few inches taller with a six inch reach advantage. He is also the more aggressive and powerful fighter.
With that said, Smith can win optics here on the feet. He’s longer and will throw bigger shots. He’s attacking the head at a high rate so if he simply lands a few bigger shots, that could be enough to do damage or swing rounds. My concern obviously is what I stated above, being that You doesn’t eat head strikes at a high rate.
From a top end perspective, if Smith is running around throwing head bombs and missing, it could play into You’s favor where he’s able to counter and evade. I still think rounds will be competitive standing but this isn’t a matchup where Smith projects to easily pick up volume and therefore, he could lose rounds.
The wrestling exchanges should be super fun and it’s one of the things I’m most looking forward to on this slate.
I think both fighters can take each other down. Smith is explosive enough and good enough with his double legs to get in on the hips of You and land takedowns. He could earn some control and he could land some GnP. However I don’t think he can easily transition to dominant positions, and so I think You will likely do a good job scrambling up when he needs to.
You is definitely a better scrambler in my mind which is probably what will win him this fight if anything does. Smith gave up two takedowns to Morales, and one to Kazama, but he was able to outscramble them just enough to avoid major issue. Morales still had him in a deep front headlock choke though.
I’m unsure if You will implement a wrestling heavy game plan or not, but I would guess not. If he only attempts 1-2 takedowns per round, I’m not convinced it’s enough to win. If he’s being more aggressive, his wrestling is strong enough to get Smith down eventually and I think he has some back taking upside.
Again, wrestling exchanges could simply be competitive here. Smith probably projects for 2-3 takedowns with mild control and limited finishing equity. You can land 1-3 takedowns as well. It could lead to nothing or it could lead to back takes and a potentially finishing threat.
I kind of want to side with the dog here given that I like his style and am already biased toward him. I think he’s a solid round winning neutralizer standing, and is skilled enough offensively and defensively on the mat to win wrestling exchanges. Smith having the wrestling base, and being a bigger and better athlete is enough to give me pause though.
I’ll take You to edge out a super close decision but I think Smith is capable of achieving the same essentially result by edging out optics or exceeding my ground control expectation.
—
On DraftKings, both fighters carry fantasy upside in their respective styles, but I’m fairly worried about these two neutralizing each other and killing that off.
Smith is priced at 8.5k and I expect to be relatively light and/or underweight to him this week. He’s been bet up this week too and is now sitting at -225 to win, so he’ll rate out as a value play which should draw extra attention.
He scored 78 and 90 (DWCS) in his last two decisions, but he’s coming off the viral KO slam which scored 121. He’s priced affordably and with a wrestling base, the public will want to target him to some degree.
I do think it’s fine because when he wins, it will come via wrestling or via damage, and with 14 fights on this slate, no ownership will get truly out of hand. It doesn’t cost you a ton to play Smith around the field percentage.
However, I think You can limit Smith’s wrestling upside pretty severely. He can limit control and he can limit finishing equity. On the feet, he’ll limit exchanges too. It’s not a great recipe to make a major investment against neutralizers like this historically.
Smith is +240 to win ITD which isn’t particularly strong. Again, he’s a viable secondary option at this price tag based on his offensive profile, and I wouldn’t be stunned if he did land a couple of takedowns. I also just think his ceiling is capped without a finish, which isn’t the easiest outcome to project.
I’ll end up relatively light on Smith and will instead target some other fights where I think there’s more domination equity.
You is probably my preferred target at 7.7k but I don’t think he’s a must either. It’s not a great sign to see the line trending against him at the very least, he’s overpriced now.
Smith having the wrestling background will limit You’s top-end ceiling as well. We’ve already seen You compete against weak grapplers and fail to reach that, so it’s fair to be concerned about playing him at all.
I will say that what gets lost here is that on RTUFC, You scored 90 and 95 DK points in wins, which is pretty strong and would be a good score for this price tag. He also scored 88 points against Cunningham.
Without wrestling exchanges, You will bust. He just scored 55 in a decision win over Xiao and he scored 74 in his debut win as well. He’s only +600 to win ITD which isn’t strong, and I’m not betting on a finish.
But I do think someone will initiate wrestling exchanges here, meaning You can find his way to the mat occasionally. He could be forced into landing 1-2 takedowns from pressure alone, and there’s some sneaky submission upside if things go the right way.
I don’t think this is a spot you truly need to prioritize, but I also think You is in play given his wrestling ability. For 7.7k at a relatively low public ownership, I’m happy to sprinkle in as a low-end play with win equity but perhaps a questionable ceiling.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: You by Decision (Confidence=Low)
Peira Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes
Fight Odds: Rodrigues -170, Hughes +145
Odds to end ITD: +300
DraftKings Salaries: Rodriguez 8.4k, Hughes 7.8k
Weight Class: 115
*Matchup analysis written by Gordon Clark
The fight night kicks off with a strawweight rematch, as Piera Rodriguez takes on Sam Hughes for a second time, following her 2022 victory. Let’s dive in.
Piera Rodriguez has done very well for herself in the UFC. “La Fiera” is now 11-2 overall and has a 5-2 record inside the UFC, which should honestly be 6-1 if it weren’t for her DQ loss via headbutt back in 2024, in a match she was winning.
Piera is a pretty well-rounded fighter who thrives with takedowns and top control. She averages 4.53 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 54% accuracy and has used them to accumulate control time in her bouts, including earning more than 10 minutes of control in an impressive win against Josephine Knutsson in 2024.
Her one loss in the UFC came against Gillian Robertson in 2023, where she was controlled for more than 6 minutes and submitted via armbar in the second round.
Preferably, she will utilize her physicality to take down and beat lesser grapplers on the mat. She isn’t the most technical grappler and actually has no submission wins to her name. She prefers to utilize her ground-and-pound on the mat and does implement decent damage from top position.
On the feet, she is a competent striker. She’s averaging 3.54 strikes per minute and does have decent kicks, but ultimately prefers to be in the clinch and use her strength.
We have seen her slow down in the past and the cardio has been something to keep an eye on. But it has been improving and hasn’t been as much of an issue recently. You could also say that she is able to be out-volumed on the feet as she prefers her kicks and crashing the clinch, but she has been pretty adamant and successful getting the takedowns, so she hasn’t had to strike for long periods.
However, her durability has been solid to date, having never been KO’d and having her sole loss coming against one of the division’s best grapplers.
Overall, Piera is a physical, well-rounded fighter who prioritizes clinch exchanges and getting takedowns, to which she has had good success. She has improved her cardio in recent fights and has been making the proper improvements to be a top 15 threat in this division.
Sam Hughes has been a UFC staple for a few years now. Putting it truthfully, she is not the most talented fighter. She is smaller for the division, can be hit, isn’t the best athlete and can also be controlled on the mat.
But if there is one thing you cannot deny about “Sampage”, it is her heart. She has no quit in her and has time and time again shown the ability to push a pace in the third round, and outlast opponents.
She is actually on a nice three-fight win streak and has shown decent improvements in her wrestling, albeit against low level opposition. She is now 6-5 in the UFC, after starting 0-3 and having her UFC contract on the line.
At her core, Hughes is someone who will look to push a pace and break opponents down the stretch. She outlasted Jacqueline Amorim in a matchup where she was dominated early, and was able to have more cardio to win a decision there. She has also looked to utilize her wrestling more, landing three TDs against Luciano in a decision win and two TDs in her last bout against Shauna Bannon in a second round submission victory.
She averages 1.23 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 35% accuracy. She typically utilizes that to control opponents, and that last win was her first submission win in the UFC.
However, we have seen her taken down and controlled as well with a weaker 60% takedown defense. 73% of her UFC bouts have gone to decision and she often is being outpointed early before picking up the pace and winning the later rounds. She is getting hit more than she is landing, averaging 4.34 strikes landed per minute to her 4.44 absorbed, but she has been extremely durable inside the Octagon.
Unless she faces truly poor UFC competition, she will often be outpointed on the feet early, but her heart and durability will keep her in the fight and her well-rounded abilities allow her to fight with pace on the feet or implement a ground based attack.
It is important to note that this fight is a rematch from a previous bout, in which Piera Rodriguez was able to win via unanimous decision back in October of 2022. It seems like a weird rematch to make, since Piera has been on a decent run in the UFC, but to Hughes’ credit, she is on a solid win streak herself.
In their first matchup, Piera used her physicality and dominated Hughes early, outlanding her and taking her down five times. She did slow down and Hughes was able to win the third round on all judges’ scorecards, but the striking numbers were still close in the third.
A few years later, I’m not sure how much has changed. Piera dominated until she gassed out, and I mentioned above how I thought Piera’s cardio had improved. So sure, Hughes can take over late and keep this fight close. But I still favor Piera in the wrestling and think she can take down Hughes and win minutes.
On the feet, Hughes will pressure but Rodriguez lands the bigger shots with her kicks and has better defensive metrics. If you add in the fact Piera has been facing tougher competition and is looking better, it’s hard to pick a different outcome than their first matchup here. I’m going to take Rodriguez to have wrestling success early, win minutes, and have better cardio to survive the late blitz from Hughes, winning yet another decision.
—
On DraftKings, this is a super weird rematch that’s lined in the mid-range.
Rodriguez is priced at 8.4k and I think she will draw a lot of attention, having scored 92 DK points in her last win against Hughes.
I was surprised to see the early betting line only -145 in favor of Rodriguez considering the previous matchup, but she’s getting action this week and is now up to -170. Not that I’m running to the window to bet her, and if anything I’d look at her decision prop, but I mostly agree that not much has changed since the first bout.
What I personally want to note though, is that despite the one-way wrestling traffic, Rodriguez actually got nothing done on the mat. She landed five takedowns on 11 attempts, but Hughes basically just popped back up every single time. Rodriguez couldn’t even control her for two total minutes in the fight.
That makes me nervous and I think it’s why the line is more competitive here. Takedowns without control run a massive risk because judges may essentially not count it as real offense. So Rodriguez will need to do additional work on the feet, which is far more competitive and you could argue Hughes is the favorite there.
Because of this question, I was considering writing Rodriguez up as a fade until I realized she’s only 8.4k. Now I almost feel the opposite in that a win for her has to come with wrestling equity and she’s extremely likely to exceed value.
If Rodriguez fails to wrestle, she’ll bust completely, but it may be a positive sign that she’s attempted 10 takedowns in each of her last two wins, landing 7 and 8 which allowed her to surpass 100 DK points both times. Plus, she beat Hughes via wrestling the first time, and I feel pretty confident she’ll attempt takedowns again.
I am honestly pretty scared about the lack of control aspect, but Rodriguez has a very realistic chance of landing 5 takedowns again in a win. At 8.4k, her floor feels safe for the price and she’ll rate out as a solid secondary target.
Rodriguez is also only +550 to win ITD and with that lack of control had zero shot of coming close to a finish, so I wouldn’t count on it. Again, there’s risk here. For the price, I’m still fine playing into her as a secondary option and would expect a semi-similar result with another win.
Hughes is priced at 7.8k and kind of looks like a fade.
Yeah she could win the fight but do I care? Hughes attempted one single takedown in her last fight and in a decision, would have scored 60 DK points. Maybe she can score 70-80 in a win instead of 60 but that’s not a guarantee.
Hughes just has limited upside in this matchup, to put it politely. There’s nothing to suggest she’ll dominate on the ground and she’s +550 to win ITD. If she was 7.1k I’d consider her for win equity but at 7.8k I don’t really think she comes close to being optimal even in a win scenario.
So I honestly lean toward fading Hughes. Her strategy should be to keep the fight upright. The only thing to point to is maybe that Gillian Robertson subbed Rodriguez and scored 105 DK points but Hughes and Robertson are obviously nowhere close to each other’s skill level on the mat.
Unless Hughes randomly smashes late and gets a TKO I don’t see her surpassing 90 DK points in a win, and there are plenty of viable underdogs who are cheaper this week.
Brett’s Fight Prediction: Rodriguez by Decision (Confidence=Medium-Low)